福特汽車 (F) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Holly, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Ford Motor Company Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，女士們先生們。我叫霍莉，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。現在，我歡迎您參加福特汽車公司2019年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Lynn Antipas Tyson, Executive Director of Investor Relations. Lynn?

現在，我想將電話轉給投資人關係執行董事 Lynn Antipas Tyson。林恩？

Thank you, Holly. Welcome, everyone, to Ford Motor Company's Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Call. Presenting today are Jim Hackett, our President and CEO; and Tim Stone, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us are Joe Hinrichs, President, Automotive; Jim Farley, President, New Business Technology and Strategy; and David McClelland, CEO of Ford Credit. Jim Hackett will begin with a brief review of the quarter and progress against our strategic initiatives. Tim will follow with a more detailed look at our results, and then we'll turn to Q&A. Following Q&A, Jim Hackett will have a few closing remarks.

謝謝你，霍莉。歡迎大家參加福特汽車公司 2019 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的演講嘉賓是我們的總裁兼執行長吉姆哈克特 (Jim Hackett)；和我們的財務長蒂姆·斯通。加入我們的還有汽車總裁 Joe Hinrichs； Jim Farley，新業務技術與策略總裁；以及福特信貸公司執行長戴維‧麥克萊蘭 (David McClelland)。吉姆·哈克特將首先簡要回顧本季以及我們戰略計劃的進展。蒂姆將更詳細地了解我們的結果，然後我們將轉向問答。問答結束後，吉姆·哈克特將發表一些結束語。

Our comments today will include some non-GAAP references. These are reconciled to the most comparable U.S. GAAP measures in the appendix of our earnings deck, which can be found along with the rest of our earnings materials, at shareholder.ford.com.

我們今天的評論將包括一些非公認會計原則參考資料。這些數據與我們收益表附錄中最具可比性的美國公認會計原則（GAAP）指標進行了調整，該收益表與我們的其他收益材料一起可以在股東.ford.com上找到。

Actual results may differ from those stated, and the most significant factors that could cause actual results to differ are included on Page 22 of our presentation. In addition, unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year-over-year.

實際結果可能與所述結果不同，並且可能導致實際結果不同的最重要因素包含在我們簡報的第 22 頁中。此外，除非另有說明，所有比較均為逐年比較。

As a reminder, in 2020, we will update the business units in our Automotive segment to align with changes to our management and reporting structure. To help you with this transition, our earnings deck appendix has a schematic of the changes, including where certain joint ventures will be reported. Also, our revised 2018 and 2019 results show how they will appear in the new reporting structure. The Investor Relations team is available if you have specific questions about these changes.

謹此提醒，2020 年，我們將更新汽車部門的業務部門，以適應我們管理和報告結構的變化。為了幫助您完成這項轉變，我們的損益表附錄提供了變更的示意圖，包括報告某些合資企業的位置。此外，我們修訂後的 2018 年和 2019 年結果顯示了它們將如何出現在新的報告結構中。如果您對這些變化有具體疑問，可以聯絡投資者關係團隊。

Now I'll turn the call over to Jim.

現在我將把電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks, Lynn, and hello, everyone. Overall, the Ford team delivered solid operational results in the third quarter while, at the same time, we made further progress on the global redesign of the company. We know, though, that we have much more work to do. And this is the mandate of Ford: executing in the now while transforming into a much more fit, agile and customer-centric company that can win in an era of rapid change and innovation. Our team is operating with urgency and a focus to meet these challenges.

謝謝林恩，大家好。總體而言，福特團隊在第三季度取得了穩健的營運業績，同時我們在公司的全球重新設計方面取得了進一步進展。但我們知道，我們還有很多工作要做。這就是福特的使命：立足當下，轉型為更健康、敏捷、以客戶為中心的公司，能夠在快速變革和創新的時代中獲勝。我們的團隊正在緊急行動並專注於應對這些挑戰。

Please turn to Page 4. Now touching briefly on the quarter, we generated positive adjusted free cash flow. The year-to-date adjusted free cash flow was up 80%, largely driven by improvement in our Automotive business. In the quarter, we delivered $1.8 billion in company-adjusted EBIT, that was up 8%, supported by improvement in our businesses in China, North America and Europe as well as mark-to-market gains in corporate other and another strong performance by Ford Credit. And year-to-date EBIT for Automotive, it was up 10%, and company-adjusted EBIT increased 6%.

請翻到第 4 頁。現在簡要介紹本季度，我們產生了正的調整後自由現金流。年初至今，調整後自由現金流成長了 80%，這主要是由於我們汽車業務的改善。本季度，我們實現了18 億美元的公司調整後息稅前利潤(EBIT)，增長了8%，這得益於我們在中國、北美和歐洲業務的改善以及企業其他業務按市值計價的增長，以及福特信貸。今年迄今為止，汽車業的息稅前利潤增加了 10%，而公司調整後的息稅前利潤增加了 6%。

Please turn to Page 5. At the highest level, our global redesign is about making choices to transform Ford into a more fit and competitive company. Simply put, we are absolutely committed to improving execution and addressing underperformance throughout the company. I will walk you through our business region by region.

請翻到第 5 頁。在最高層面上，我們的全球重新設計是為了做出選擇，將福特轉變為更適合、更有競爭力的公司。簡而言之，我們絕對致力於提高整個公司的執行力並解決績效不佳的問題。我將帶您逐一地區地了解我們的業務。

In our North American business, amidst an intensified competitive environment, we're in the middle of an extensive product renewal, reminding you that we are significantly refreshing and growing our SUV portfolio, introducing models like the completely redesigned Ford Explorer and Escape and our all-new Lincoln Aviator and Corsair. And I'm pleased to say that we are approaching now full production on the new Explorer and Aviator. This product renewal comes as we also phase out our most traditional sedan silhouettes. Now again, our intent isn't to give up customers in that sedan segment, rather to enhance their view of Ford's potential to please them in even a better vehicle.

在我們的北美業務中，在激烈的競爭環境中，我們正在進行廣泛的產品更新，這提醒您，我們正在大幅更新和擴大我們的SUV 產品組合，推出了完全重新設計的福特Explorer 和Escape 等車型以及我們的所有車型。- 新林肯飛行員和海盜船。我很高興地說，我們現在即將全面生產新款 Explorer 和 Aviator。這次產品更新之際，我們也逐步淘汰了最傳統的轎車輪廓。再說一次，我們的目的不是放棄轎車細分市場的客戶，而是增強他們對福特潛力的看法，以更好的車輛取悅他們。

We also plan to protect and expand our leadership in pickups and commercial vehicles. Look for a new Super Duty pickup in the coming months and our all-new F-150 next year. In a few weeks, we're introducing battery electric vehicle that's designed from the ground up to offer stunning performance, gorgeous design and an incredible customer experience that is fully connected and updatable over time.

我們還計劃保護和擴大我們在皮卡和商用車領域的領先地位。預計未來幾個月將推出新款 Super Duty 皮卡，明年將推出全新 F-150。幾週後，我們將推出純電動車，從頭開始設計，可提供令人驚嘆的性能、華麗的設計和令人難以置信的客戶體驗，並且完全連接並可隨著時間的推移進行更新。

We also have big plans for the long-awaited rebirth of the Bronco franchise. So Ford is expanding in the battery electric vehicles and rugged off-road SUVs, challenging brands that have had those 2 growth areas to themselves for long enough. In total, remind you that we're in the process of replacing 75% of our North American lineup by volume by the end of 2020, dramatically improving the freshness and appeal of our portfolio.

我們也為期待已久的 Bronco 系列重生製定了宏偉計劃。因此，福特正在純電動車和堅固耐用的越野 SUV 領域擴張，向那些長期獨佔這兩個成長領域的品牌發起挑戰。總而言之，請提醒您，我們正在到 2020 年底之前更換 75% 的北美產品線，從而顯著提高我們產品組合的新鮮度和吸引力。

The Ford team in Europe, it's making rapid strides in restructuring the business. We have reset our revenue and cost base and are rationalizing our product portfolio. Europe is now focusing on 3 business groups: a strong and growing commercial vehicle business, a smaller and more profitable passenger vehicle business and a niche portfolio of profitable and brand-enhancing imported vehicles. So going forward, you will see us redeploy capital to build on our position as Europe's #1 commercial vehicle brand.

歐洲的福特團隊在業務重組方面正快速邁進。我們已經重置了收入和成本基礎，並正在合理化我們的產品組合。歐洲目前專注於三個業務集團：強大且不斷成長的商用車業務、規模較小但利潤更高的乘用車業務以及利潤豐厚且品牌提升的進口汽車利基投資組合。因此，展望未來，您將看到我們重新部署資本，以鞏固我們作為歐洲第一商用車品牌的地位。

In addition, our country-specific product plans have us on track to deliver against the new European 2021 CO2 targets without penalties or fines, using new hybrid and electric propulsion choices. We're clearly not satisfied with our standing in China, and the team is working exhaustively to return to profitable growth in this important market. We're working to stabilize the business and are now launching new products that are tailored to the needs of Chinese customers. At the same time, we're attacking costs, reinvigorating our dealer network and improving sales and market capabilities.

此外，我們針對特定國家/地區的產品計劃使我們能夠使用新的混合動力和電力推進選擇，在不受到處罰或罰款的情況下實現新的歐洲 2021 年二氧化碳目標。我們顯然對自己在中國的地位不滿意，團隊正在竭盡全力努力恢復這個重要市場的獲利成長。我們正在努力穩定業務，現在正在推出適合中國客戶需求的新產品。同時，我們正在降低成本，重振我們的經銷商網路並提高銷售和市場能力。

In South America, we are restructuring our operations to be far more asset light. As you know, we made the decision to exit our heavy truck business, we reduced our management employee base by a full 20% and we downsized our regional headquarters and rationalized the dealer networks in both Brazil and Argentina.

在南美，我們正在重組業務，以實現輕資產化。如您所知，我們決定退出重型卡車業務，將管理人員人數減少了整整 20%，並縮小了地區總部的規模，並對巴西和阿根廷的經銷商網路進行了合理化調整。

Finally, we recently announced the formation of our International Markets Group. We will refer to this as IMG, which brings together 100 high-potential emerged and emerging markets, including India, Australia, ASEAN, the Middle East, Africa and Russia. This is all under 1 leadership team. Emerging markets are growing at almost double the rate of the global industry. By 2024, 1 in 3 vehicles in our industry will be sold in these markets. Having the right business model to profitably address this opportunity is critical, and that's precisely what IMG will do.

最後，我們最近宣布成立國際市場集團。我們稱之為IMG，它匯集了100個高潛力新興市場，包括印度、澳洲、東協、中東、非洲和俄羅斯。這一切都在 1 個領導團隊的領導下。新興市場的成長速度幾乎是全球產業成長速度的兩倍。到 2024 年，我們行業三分之一的車輛將在這些市場銷售。擁有正確的商業模式來抓住這一機會並從中獲利至關重要，而這正是 IMG 將要做的事情。

Now please turn to Page 6. An important enabler of the strategy is the agreement we reached earlier this month with Mahindra. The joint venture will help Ford profitably grow in India and unlock the low-cost product development capabilities we need to grow in emerging markets. Ford will benefit from Mahindra's lower-cost platforms and value-focused engineering. Mahindra, on the other hand, will gain from Ford's global reach, quality and technology, and that includes the battery electric vehicle.

現在請翻到第 6 頁。該策略的一個重要推動因素是我們本月早些時候與 Mahindra 達成的協議。該合資企業將幫助福特在印度實現獲利成長，並釋放我們在新興市場發展所需的低成本產品開發能力。福特將受益於馬恆達的低成本平台和以價值為中心的工程。另一方面，馬恆達將從福特的全球影響力、品質和技術中獲益，其中包括純電動車。

We're also taking strategic actions to prepare Ford to compete and lead in an industry that is being profoundly reshaped through connectivity: the sharing economy, automation and new forms of propulsion. You can think of this as the smart vehicles for a smart world. We're scaling products and businesses that connect to the world around them in ways that benefits customers.

我們也採取戰略行動，讓福特做好準備，在共享經濟、自動化和新的推進形式等互聯性正在深刻重塑的行業中競爭和領先。您可以將其視為智慧世界的智慧車輛。我們正在擴展產品和業務，以有利於客戶的方式連接到周圍的世界。

And with all elements of Ford Smart mobility now in 1 organization led by Jim Farley, we are sharpening our focus on where to play and how to win across this broad mandate. We're not able to reveal all the work we're doing in this exciting and fast-moving era, but there are a few things that I can share. We are prioritizing investments in connected vehicle services that will improve the customer experience. This will enable Ford to transition from what has been historically a largely product-led offering to an ever-improving and much stickier suite of products, accessories, services and experiences, all bundled together. These investments have a sharp focus on customer data privacy and safety. They will open new opportunities to realize value from connected vehicle data and deliver outstanding experiences for our retail and commercial customers. And we'll have more to say about all of this in the future.

現在，福特智能旅行的所有要素都集中在吉姆法利 (Jim Farley) 領導的一個組織中，我們正在更加關注在哪裡發揮作用以及如何贏得這一廣泛的使命。我們無法透露在這個令人興奮且快速發展的時代我們正在做的所有工作，但有一些事情我可以分享。我們優先投資連網車輛服務，以改善客戶體驗。這將使福特從歷史上主要以產品為主導的產品轉型為不斷改進且更具黏性的產品、配件、服務和體驗套件，所有這些都捆綁在一起。這些投資重點關注客戶資料隱私和安全。它們將為我們的零售和商業客戶提供從連網車輛數據中實現價值的新機會，並提供卓越的體驗。未來我們將會對這一切有更多的討論。

As you know, we're also developing mobility services like Spin, which is among the top 3 micro-mobility companies in the U.S. With a footprint in 60 markets and growing and over 3 million rides year-to-date, Spin is expanding Ford's reach in areas that we believe will contribute to an even stronger base for autonomous vehicle businesses.

如您所知，我們也正在開發像Spin 這樣的行動服務，Spin 是美國排名前3 的微型移動公司之一。Spin 的業務遍及60 個市場，並且不斷增長，今年迄今為止的乘車次數已超過300 萬次。我們相信這些領域的影響力將有助於為自動駕駛汽車業務奠定更強大的基礎。

Speaking of AVs, last month, we announced Austin as our third market for autonomous vehicle services. Together with Argo AI, we are currently mapping the city and will gradually increase the size of our fleet, like how we're rolling out operations in the first 2 cities, Miami and Washington, D.C. We're constantly learning from our expanding deployment of AV technology and services. This space has shifted and evolved significantly even since the formation of our AV LLC in 2018, and we expect it to remain dynamic in the coming years. Our team is focused on building a successful, sustainable and scalable self-driving vehicle service. And to this end, we remain focused on our plan for initial commercialization of a self-driving service in 2021. And we will begin to scale that service once we're able to remove the safety driver from the vehicle.

說到自動駕駛汽車，上個月，我們宣布奧斯汀成為我們自動駕駛汽車服務的第三個市場。我們目前正在與 Argo AI 一起繪製城市地圖，並將逐步擴大我們車隊的規模，就像我們在邁阿密和華盛頓特區這兩個城市開展業務一樣。我們不斷在不斷擴大的部署中學習AV 技術和服務。自 2018 年 AV LLC 成立以來，這一領域已經發生了顯著的變化和發展，我們預計它在未來幾年將保持活力。我們的團隊專注於打造成功、永續且可擴展的自動駕駛汽車服務。為此，我們仍專注於 2021 年自動駕駛服務初步商業化的計畫。一旦我們能夠將安全駕駛員從車輛上移除，我們將開始擴展該服務。

Before I turn the call over to Tim, let me address our full year outlook. We are experiencing more headwinds than expected in our fourth quarter, especially higher warranty. As a result, we have lowered our adjusted EBIT guidance range to $6.5 billion to $7 billion, which suggests we will not grow adjusted EBIT this year as we intended. Of course, we're disappointed in this, but we're confident that we're laying the groundwork for sustained improvement in profitability and cash flow over time.

在我把電話轉給蒂姆之前，讓我先談談我們的全年展望。我們在第四季遇到的阻力比預期更多，尤其是更高的保固期。因此，我們將調整後息稅前利潤指引範圍下調至 65 億至 70 億美元，這表明我們今年不會按預期成長調整後息稅前利潤。當然，我們對此感到失望，但我們相信，我們正在為獲利能力和現金流的持續改善奠定基礎。

In terms of warranty costs, we are feeling the downstream impact of some products designed earlier in the decade. We've taken extensive actions to improve long-term quality and durability, including centralizing core engineering responsibility and bolstering our systems integration and design assurance processes. Now these actions are already bearing fruit as we are seeing an improving trend in quality studies on our models.

在保固成本方面，我們感受到了本世紀初設計的一些產品對下游的影響。我們採取了廣泛的行動來提高長期品質和耐用性，包括集中核心工程責任以及加強我們的系統整合和設計保證流程。現在，這些行動已經取得了成果，因為我們看到模型品質研究的趨勢不斷改善。

Now let me turn the call over to our CFO, Tim Stone.

現在讓我把電話轉給我們的財務長提姆·史東。

Thanks, Jim. Hi, everyone. Ford's results this quarter demonstrate we are making progress on delivering on our commitments to customers and other stakeholders. However, it's clear we have much more work to do. We're focused on consistently improving customer experience and operational execution across our business. We're making progress on our global redesign, making the tough choices to lay the groundwork for improvement in future growth, free cash flow, profitability and returns on capital.

謝謝，吉姆。大家好。福特本季的業績表明，我們在履行對客戶和其他利害關係人的承諾方面正在取得進展。然而，很明顯我們還有很多工作要做。我們致力於持續改善整個業務的客戶體驗和營運執行力。我們在全球重新設計方面取得進展，做出艱難的選擇，為未來成長、自由現金流、獲利能力和資本回報率的改善奠定基礎。

We're positioning Ford to lead and win through fitness. For example, holding structural costs flat to down, excluding pension and OPEB, and forming the JV with Mahindra. We're prioritizing meaningful opportunities for profitable, long-term growth in mobility. And disciplined execution is driving strong results from Ford Credit.

我們將福特定位為透過健身來引領並獲勝。例如，保持結構性成本持平或下降，不包括退休金和 OPEB，以及與 Mahindra 組成合資企業。我們正在優先考慮有意義的機會，以實現行動領域的獲利和長期成長。嚴格的執行力正在推動福特信貸取得強勁業績。

In the third quarter, we generated $207 million in adjusted free cash flow. Year-to-date, adjusted free cash flow was up 80% to $2.3 billion supported by lower capital expenditures, higher distributions from Ford Credit and continued improvement in working capital in our Auto business. Adjusted free cash flow is our most important financial measure, and we're committed to generating sustainable growth over time.

第三季度，我們產生了 2.07 億美元的調整後自由現金流。年初至今，在資本支出減少、福特信貸分配增加以及汽車業務營運資本持續改善的支持下，調整後自由現金流增加了 80%，達到 23 億美元。調整後的自由現金流是我們最重要的財務指標，我們致力於隨著時間的推移實現永續成長。

Cash and liquidity of $22 billion and $35 billion remain above our targets. We remain committed to investment-grade credit ratings and a strong balance sheet. Wholesales declined 8% in the quarter primarily driven by Europe, China and South America. Revenue was down 2% largely as a result of foreign exchange. Auto EBIT was $1.3 billion in the quarter with a margin of 3.9% as higher pricing and flat structural costs, excluding pension and OPEB, were offset by higher materials costs associated with product launches, higher warranty expenses and adverse currency exchange.

220 億美元和 350 億美元的現金和流動性仍高於我們的目標。我們仍然致力於投資等級信用評級和強勁的資產負債表。本季批發銷售額下降 8%，主要受到歐洲、中國和南美的推動。收入下降 2%，主要是由於外匯影響。本季汽車業息稅前利潤為13 億美元，利潤率為3.9%，這是由於較高的定價和固定的結構成本（不包括退休金和OPEB）被與產品發布相關的較高材料成本、較高的保固費用和不利的貨幣兌換所抵銷。

Our strategic investments in mobility increased 48% as we continue to build out capabilities in connected services and autonomous vehicles. By the end of this year, 100% of Ford's new vehicles in the U.S. will be shipped with connectivity, and we are targeting 90% globally by the end of 2020.

隨著我們繼續增強互聯服務和自動駕駛汽車的能力，我們在行動領域的策略投資增加了 48%。今年底，福特在美國銷售的新車 100% 都將配備連網功能，我們的目標是到 2020 年底，全球這一比例達到 90%。

Ford Credit delivered another strong quarter, posting a 9% increase in earnings before taxes. Loss metrics reflected healthy and stable consumer credit, and auction values for off-lease vehicles were slightly better than expected. We now believe auction values will be down about 2% on average for the full year. And receivables were $149 billion.

福特信貸 (Ford Credit) 季度業績再次強勁，稅前利潤成長 9%。損失指標反映了健康穩定的消費者信貸，租賃結束車輛的拍賣價值略優於預期。我們現在認為全年拍賣價格將平均下降約 2%。應收帳款為 1,490 億美元。

Corporate other of $18 million included mark-to-market and other investment gains of $113 million, including $77 million from Pivotal Software. On an adjusted basis, company EBIT increased 8% to $1.8 billion, and our EBIT margin expanded to 40 basis points to 4.8% driven by improvement in our businesses in China, North America and Europe, mark-to-market gains in corporate other and another strong performance by Ford Credit. EPS was $0.34, and our tax rate in the quarter was 10.7%.

該公司其他 1,800 萬美元包括按市值計價和其他投資收益 1.13 億美元，其中包括 Pivotal Software 的 7,700 萬美元。在調整後的基礎上，公司息稅前利潤增長了8%，達到18 億美元，由於我們在中國、北美和歐洲業務的改善、公司其他業務按市價計算的增長以及其他業務的增長，我們的息稅前利潤率擴大了40 個基點，達到4.8%。福特信貸的另一項強勁表現。EPS 為 0.34 美元，本季稅率為 10.7%。

In the third quarter, we recorded $1.5 billion in special item charges with cash effects of about $300 million. Actions related to our global redesign accounted for $1 billion in EBIT and a majority of the negative cash effects. As expected, most of the third quarter global redesign charges were for an impairment in India related to planned formation of our joint venture with Mahindra. Special charges in the quarter also included $300 million in noncash pension remeasurement losses and $187 million for an unfavorable customs ruling. For the full year, we now expect to incur $3 billion to $3.5 billion of EBIT charges as a result of global redesign with negative cash effects of about $1 billion to $1.5 billion.

第三季度，我們記錄了 15 億美元的特殊項目費用，現金影響約為 3 億美元。與我們的全球重新設計相關的行動造成了 10 億美元的息稅前利潤和大部分負面現金影響。正如預期的那樣，第三季全球重新設計費用的大部分用於印度與馬恆達計劃成立合資企業相關的減損。本季的特殊費用還包括 3 億美元的非現金退休金重新計量損失和 1.87 億美元的不利海關裁決。由於全球重新設計，我們現在預計全年將產生 30 億至 35 億美元的息稅前利潤費用，帶來約 10 億至 15 億美元的負面現金影響。

Let me touch on a few areas of the business in more detail. North America wholesale units were down modestly. Launch-related ramp-up of all-new Explorer and Escape, the overlap of a very strong production of F-Series in the third quarter of last year to compensate for the decline in production volume caused by the Meridian fire and our decision to exit low-margin sedans were largely offset by the favorable impacts of our new Edge introduced at the end of 2018 and also Ranger. As a reminder, we plan to start production of the new Super Duty in the fourth quarter.

讓我更詳細地談談業務的幾個領域。北美批發單位小幅下降。與推出相關的全新 Explorer 和 Escape 的成長，去年第三季 F 系列的強勁生產重疊，以彌補 Meridian 火災和我們退出決定造成的產量下降低利潤轎車在很大程度上被2018 年底推出的新款Edge 和Ranger 的有利影響所抵消。提醒一下，我們計劃在第四季開始生產新款 Super Duty。

Revenue grew 5% supported by higher pricing and improved mix. EBIT increased 3% with a margin of 8.6% driven by higher pricing and volumes in the U.S., which were partially offset by launch-related production costs and higher warranty expenses. As a reminder, we expect to conclude our negotiations with the UAW in the fourth quarter and to recognize the full impact of ratification-related payments as part of our adjusted results.

由於更高的定價和改進的產品組合，收入增長了 5%。息稅前利潤成長 3%，利潤率成長 8.6%，原因是美國定價和銷量提高，但部分被上市相關的生產成本和更高的保固費用所抵銷。提醒一下，我們預計將在第四季度結束與美國汽車工人聯合會的談判，並認識到與批准相關的付款的全面影響，作為我們調整結果的一部分。

In Europe, wholesales declined 15% primarily because of our redesign actions to exit low-margin businesses, including discontinuation of the C-MAX sedan. Revenue which was down 14%, or 9% excluding the impact of currency, was also affected by the lower volumes. At the same time, the benefits of Europe's redesign were evident in EBIT, which improved 27% in the quarter. This is the first time in 3 years that Ford has posted consecutive quarters of year-over-year improvement in European profitability. This performance is attributable to lower structural costs, stronger product mix and higher profits from our commercial vehicle JV, Ford Otosan. Headwinds included the lower volumes and adverse currency exchange rates.

在歐洲，批發量下降了 15%，主要是由於我們為退出低利潤業務而採取的重新設計行動，包括停產 C-MAX 轎車。營收下降了 14%，排除匯率影響則下降了 9%，這也受到銷量下降的影響。同時，歐洲重新設計的好處在息稅前利潤方面也很明顯，該季度息稅前利潤提高了 27%。這是福特三年來首次連續幾季實現歐洲獲利能力較去年同期改善。這一業績歸功於我們的商用車合資企業福特 Otosan 的較低結構成本、更強大的產品組合和更高的利潤。不利因素包括交易量下降和不利的貨幣匯率。

In China, wholesales declined 12%, and consolidated revenue was down 27% as improvements in mix and pricing were more than offset by lower volumes and component sales to the joint ventures in the country. Our EBIT loss in China narrowed to $300 million, an improvement of $100 million year-over-year driven by lower structural costs and favorable market factors in consolidated operations. This is the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year improvement in profitability in China. As Jim mentioned, we are working to stabilize our China business and working intensively to return it to profitable growth. Dealer engagement and profitability are starting to improve, and we continue to keep production aligned to demand to ensure appropriate levels of dealer stocks.

在中國，批發量下降了 12%，綜合收入下降了 27%，因為產品組合和定價的改善被該國合資企業銷售和零件銷售的下降所抵消。我們在中國的息稅前利潤虧損收窄至 3 億美元，年減 1 億美元，這得益於合併業務的結構性成本下降和有利的市場因素。這是中國獲利能力連續第三個季度較去年同期改善。正如吉姆所提到的，我們正在努力穩定我們的中國業務，並加緊努力使其恢復獲利成長。經銷商參與度和獲利能力開始改善，我們繼續保持生產與需求保持一致，以確保經銷商庫存處於適當水平。

Please turn to Page 20. While our third quarter results demonstrate positive improvements in the trajectory of some areas of our business, we clearly have a lot more work to do. We are updating our outlook to reflect several headwinds that have intensified since we last gave guidance. The first is higher warranty particularly related to coverages, the second is higher incentives than planned in North America and the third is China due to lower volumes and JV profits. Taking these factors into consideration, we are now targeting a full year adjusted EBIT in the range of $6.5 billion to $7 billion compared with $7 billion last year. This implies a fourth quarter adjusted EBIT range of $0.6 billion to $1.1 billion. We continue to expect strong market factors; lower full year auto structural costs, excluding pensions and OPEB; and strength in Ford Credit. We still expect adjusted free cash flow to be up for the full year driven by our auto business, and we remain committed to driving growth in cash flow and profitability over time.

請翻到第20頁。雖然我們第三季的業績表明我們業務的某些領域的發展軌跡取得了積極的改善，但我們顯然還有很多工作要做。我們正在更新我們的前景，以反映自我們上次提供指導以來加劇的一些不利因素。第一個是更高的保修，特別是與保險範圍相關的保修；第二個是北美地區的激勵措施高於計劃；第三個是中國，因為銷量和合資企業利潤較低。考慮到這些因素，我們目前的目標是全年調整後息稅前利潤在 65 億至 70 億美元之間，而去年為 70 億美元。這意味著第四季調整後的息稅前利潤範圍為 6 億美元至 11 億美元。我們持續預期強勁的市場因素；全年汽車結構成本較低，不包括退休金和OPEB；和福特信貸的實力。我們仍然預計，在我們的汽車業務的推動下，全年調整後的自由現金流將會上升，我們仍然致力於隨著時間的推移推動現金流和獲利能力的成長。

We now expect a full year adjusted effective tax rate of around 12% to 13%, which is lower than our previous expectation, largely driven by more clarity on provisions in the U.S. Tax Cuts and Job Act of 2017. This would yield adjusted EPS in the range of $1.20 to $1.32 compared with $1.30 last year. Relative to calls on capital for the year, we expect CapEx to be about $7.5 billion, down year-over-year, reflecting benefits from our fitness initiatives; funded pension contributions to be about $750 million; and shareholder distributions to be about $2.6 billion. Our guidance assumes no material change in the current economic environment, including commodities, foreign exchange and tariffs. Our actual results could differ materially from our guidance due to risks, uncertainties and other factors, including those details in our filings with the SEC.

我們目前預計全年調整後有效稅率約為 12% 至 13%，低於我們先前的預期，這主要是由於美國 2017 年減稅和就業法案中的條款更加明確。調整後每股收益將在 1.20 美元至 1.32 美元之間，而去年為 1.30 美元。相對於今年的資本需求，我們預計資本支出約為 75 億美元，年減，反映出我們的健身計畫帶來的好處；資助退休金繳款約7.5億美元；股東分配約26億美元。我們的指導假設當前經濟環境（包括大宗商品、外匯和關稅）不會發生重大變化。由於風險、不確定性和其他因素（包括我們向 SEC 提交的文件中的詳細資訊），我們的實際結果可能與我們的指導有重大差異。

Before we move to Q&A, there are a couple of things that I encourage you to keep in mind as you think about Ford today and for the long term. First, our customers are forming and driving everything we do. That's why 2019 and 2020 are such robust launch years for us in North America. We are bolstering our winning portfolio of vehicles based on what consumers want and need, reallocating capital to those higher-return growth opportunities and carrying out changeovers of our highest volume and most profitable vehicles. And second, we're determined to always get better, to persistently focus on our fitness and continuously improve our operating productivity. While we see increased headwinds in our fourth quarter, we have a bias for action and are intensely executing on the inputs that will enable us to capture the opportunities across our business that will allow us to drive free cash flow along with long-term growth in revenue and profitability, including adjusted EBIT margins of 8% or better. And we remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and holding investment-grade credit ratings.

在我們進行問答之前，我鼓勵您在考慮福特的當前和長期發展時牢記一些事情。首先，我們的客戶正在形成並推動我們所做的一切。這就是為什麼 2019 年和 2020 年對我們在北美來說是如此強勁的推出年。我們正在根據消費者的需求來增強我們的獲勝車輛組合，將資本重新分配給那些回報率更高的成長機會，並對我們產量最高、利潤最高的車輛進行改造。其次，我們決心永遠變得更好，持續關注我們的健身並不斷提高我們的營運效率。雖然我們看到第四季度的阻力有所增加，但我們傾向於採取行動，並正在大力執行投入，這將使我們能夠抓住整個業務的機會，這將使我們能夠推動自由現金流以及長期成長收入和獲利能力，包括8% 或更高的調整後息稅前利潤率。我們仍然致力於維持強勁的資產負債表並維持投資等級信用評級。

Now let's open the call for questions. Operator?

現在讓我們開始提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of John Murphy, Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 John Murphy。

Just a first question on -- to the rest of the year or really just the fourth quarter, even when you back out the UAW bonuses, it looks like you're doing $1 billion, $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter, so it seems like it's a little bit on the light side. And you very specifically highlighted higher-than-planned incentives in North America. I'm just curious, are you seeing something on the competitive front where pricing is getting much more difficult? And it just kind of seems a little bit odd after you just posted a $700 million positive net price in the third quarter. It just doesn't seem to match up with what you just did. So did something changed dramatically in the competitive environment?

第一個問題是——今年剩下的時間，或者實際上只是第四季度，即使你取消了UAW 獎金，看起來你在第四季度做了10 億美元、15 億美元，所以看起來就像有點偏輕。您非常特別強調了北美高於計劃的激勵措施。我只是很好奇，您是否在競爭中看到定價變得更加困難的情況？在您剛剛公佈第三季 7 億美元的正淨利潤之後，這似乎有點奇怪。它似乎與您剛剛所做的不相符。那麼競爭環境發生了巨大變化嗎？

Hey, John, Jim Hackett. Let me ask Joe to bring you up-to-date on that.

嘿，約翰，吉姆·哈克特。讓我請喬向您介紹最新情況。

John, thanks for the question. So if you look at it, the simple answer to your question is I wouldn't say there's anything dramatically changed in the environment at an industry level. Let me explain to you what's going on. For example, in the third quarter, Ford's incentive increase year-over-year was slightly lower than what the industry average was for the U.S. market in the third quarter. What's happening in the second half of the year, our incentives overall are slightly higher than we'd expected versus our plan for the year. That's largely driven by a couple of products.

約翰，謝謝你的提問。因此，如果你看一下，你的問題的簡單答案是，我不會說產業層面的環境發生了任何巨大的變化。讓我向你解釋一下發生了什麼事。例如，第三季度，福特的激勵年增幅略低於第三季美國市場的產業平均。下半年發生的情況是，與今年的計劃相比，我們的整體激勵措施略高於我們的預期。這主要是由幾種產品推動的。

If you look at the Ranger launch this year, it's gone very well. We had -- we've been gaining share every month this year. We had 18% segment share in September. But as you could expect, the competitors haven't let us just grow that share without any fight. So we've seen a little bit higher incentives on Ranger than we'd expected given the launch of the vehicle this year. Still very optimistic about the product, 1 APEAL, 1 IQS for J.D. Power. But the incentive spend on that product has been a little higher than we were expecting in the second half of the year.

如果你看看今年 Ranger 的發布，你會發現進展非常順利。今年我們每個月的份額都在增加。9 月份我們的細分市場佔有率為 18%。但正如你所料，競爭對手並沒有讓我們不經任何鬥爭就擴大份額。因此，我們看到 Ranger 的激勵措施比我們今年推出的預期要高一些。對J.D. Power的產品還是很看好的，1個APEAL，1個IQS。但該產品的激勵支出略高於我們下半年的預期。

If you look at what happened in the summer months, our competition on F-Series was very aggressive. And so in September, we took some actions. We saw our segment share in F-150 come back up in September. And so we had to take some actions there. And Edge is in a competitive segment, a little more competitive this year than we had planned for the year. So that's kind of where you look at it. But in general, that's more us versus our plans for the second half of the year. But I was referring to the U.S. industry in the third quarter as a reference point. And sales are still pretty much under control, and the industry is behaving in a pretty rational way so far.

如果你看看夏季發生的事情，我們在 F 系列上的競爭非常激烈。所以在九月份，我們採取了一些行動。我們看到 F-150 的細分市場份額在 9 月有所回升。所以我們必須在那裡採取一些行動。Edge 處於競爭激烈的領域，今年的競爭比我們今年的計劃要激烈一些。這就是你看待它的地方。但總的來說，這更多的是我們與我們下半年的計劃相比。但我指的是第三季的美國工業作為參考點。銷售仍然在很大程度上受到控制，並且到目前為止該行業的表現相當理性。

Okay. And then just a second question, and this might be a little bit more for Joe. But Jim, obviously, I'd love to hear your view on this. There was a lot of concern around the Explorer launch, and it sounds like there was a lot of problems there. But it seems like you've got your arms around and are ramping up pretty well. Just curious, was that story overplayed in the press and we all got a little bit too concerned about that? And are there any lessons that you learned for product launches because, obviously, you have a ton coming down the pipe in the next 12 months from that process that you can apply going forward to kind of make sure we don't have this kind of kerfuffle or issues going forward?

好的。然後是第二個問題，這對喬來說可能有點多。但是吉姆，顯然，我很想聽聽你對此的看法。Explorer 的發布引起了很多關注，而且聽起來也存在很多問題。但看起來你已經全力以赴並且進展順利。只是好奇，媒體是否誇大了這個故事，而我們對此都有點太擔心了？您在產品發布方面是否學到了任何經驗教訓，因為很明顯，在接下來的 12 個月內，您可以從該流程中吸取大量經驗教訓，以確保我們不會出現這種情況混亂還是未來的問題？

I think I should -- John, it's Jim Hackett. I think I should confirm that we have higher expectations for our performance. And it's my experience in the short time that I've been here that Ford's really good at this. And so Joe can add some color here. But the challenge, what I call the design problem, is that we had to ramp down a really profitable vehicle. We had to clear out the plant, literally bulldoze everything out, build a new plant inside, get it started and not drop any volume in the midst of that. So it was pretty aggressive.

我想我應該——約翰，我是吉姆·哈克特。我想我應該確認我們對我們的表現有更高的期望。根據我來這兒的短時間內的經驗，福特在這方面確實很擅長。所以喬可以在這裡添加一些顏色。但挑戰，我稱之為設計問題，是我們必須減少一輛真正有利可圖的車輛。我們必須清理工廠，用推土機推倒所有東西，在裡面建造一個新工廠，啟動它，並且在此過程中不要減少任何體積。所以它非常具有侵略性。

And as I look at that, I want to win like that in the future, but we fell short in a few ways. In fact, Joe just took my whole team through a deep dive on what we've learned from that. I was very impressed with kind of the granularity of what we do understand of how the things that should have gone better didn't. But what I'm not concerned about is whether we get it and whether we have a grasp of how to get control of it.

當我看到這一點時，我希望將來能像那樣獲勝，但我們在某些​​方面存在不足。事實上，喬剛剛帶領我的整個團隊深入研究了我們從中學到的東西。我對我們對那些本來應該做得更好的事情卻沒有做得更好的理解的細緻程度印象深刻。但我不關心的是我們是否得到它以及我們是否掌握瞭如何控制它。

I'll let Joe share with you because, of course, we're getting daily updates, the latest status of where we are on Explorer.

我會讓 Joe 與您分享，因為當然，我們每天都會收到更新，也就是我們在資源管理器上的最新狀態。

Yes, thanks, Jim. Thanks, John. So a really important launch for us clearly. Just to step back for a second, just so far this year, we launched the Ranger, all-new, in North America, a very successful launch. Very unusual that it wins its segment in IQS in the first year of introduction. We just launched Escape and Corsair, that launch has gone very well. It's -- we're ahead of plan actually on that launch.

是的，謝謝，吉姆。謝謝，約翰。顯然，這對我們來說是一次非常重要的發布。退一步來說，今年到目前為止，我們在北美推出了全新的 Ranger，這是一次非常成功的發布。非常不尋常的是，它在推出的第一年就贏得了 IQS 細分市場。我們剛推出了 Escape 和 Corsair，推出進展非常順利。我們的發布實際上比計劃提前了。

So the Explorer Aviator launch is kind of -- is a very unique situation. As Jim said, we're disappointed in our overall performance and the ramp-up of the volume. The products themselves are wonderful. The Aviator's a fabulous product. The -- half the sales of Explorer so far are ST and Platinum. And if you haven't driven an ST, I really challenge you to do so. It's a lot of fun, and I do it...

因此，Explorer Aviator 的推出是一種非常獨特的情況。正如吉姆所說，我們對我們的整體表現和銷售的成長感到失望。產品本身很棒。Aviator 是一款出色的產品。迄今為止，Explorer 銷售額的一半來自 ST 和 Platinum。如果你還沒開過 ST，我真的建議你去試試看。這很有趣，我也這樣做...

They won't give it back.

他們不會還給它。

Yes, so -- you're right. So -- but back to the launch. So Chicago's our oldest plant, was launched in 1924. It's very, very constrained as far as physical location and as far as land and area around the plant. We -- simply put, we took on too much. We signed up for too much at launch. We tried to launch on 3 crew, which we didn't even try to do when we launched the aluminum F-150 back in 2014. We launched the Aviator and Explorer both at the same time. We had the hybrid version of the Explorer. We had the Police Interceptor. We had Black Label Aviators. We had all this content. And simply put, with the new -- with the product going from front-wheel drive to rear-wheel drive architecture, all-new assembly line, all-new body shop, all those things at once, we took on too much and we shouldn't have. It's our -- and so part of the lessons learned is obviously go back to how we manage these launches and sequence them in a way that gives the team a chance to be successful.

是的，所以——你是對的。那麼，回到發射。芝加哥是我們最古老的工廠，成立於 1924 年。就物理位置以及工廠周圍的土地和麵積而言，這是非常非常有限的。簡而言之，我們承擔太多了。我們在發佈時註冊了太多。我們曾嘗試搭載 3 名機組人員進行發射，而 2014 年發射鋁製 F-150 時我們甚至沒有嘗試這樣做。我們同時推出了 Aviator 和 Explorer。我們有 Explorer 的混合版本。我們有警察攔截機。我們有黑標飛行員鞋。我們擁有所有這些內容。簡而言之，隨著新的產品從前輪驅動轉向後輪驅動架構、全新的裝配線、全新的車身車間，所有這些同時發生，我們承擔了太多，我們不應該有。這是我們的——所以學到的教訓的一部分顯然是回到我們如何管理這些發布並以一種讓團隊有機會成功的方式對它們進行排序。

Our wholesales were down in the third quarter, about 19,000 Explorers year-over-year, but we also had an additional 6,000 Aviators that weren't in there the year -- previous year. And so we feel really good about the fourth quarter. The last week or so, we've been running about 59 JPH. We're actually running out of parts from our suppliers as we've started to ramp up. But we used to run at 60 JPH, so we're just about where we have been historically in that plant. Plus we have the show center, the new additional line coming online, starting about 6 JPH by the end of the month. So we actually feel really good about where we are right now. It's been a lot of work and a lot to get here. The products look great. We have plenty of available inventory now in the dealers, and we're excited about where they're going to go from here.

我們的批發量在第三季度有所下降，與去年同期相比約為 19,000 輛 Explorer，但我們還有 6,000 輛 Aviator 的銷量，這些是去年（前一年）沒有的。所以我們對第四季的感覺非常好。大約上週，我們的跑步費用約為 59 JPH。事實上，隨著我們開始擴大產能，我們供應商的零件已經用完了。但我們過去的運行速度是 60 JPH，所以我們的速度與該工廠歷史上的水平差不多。另外，我們還有展示中心，新的附加路線即將上線，到月底起售價約 6 日圓。所以我們實際上對我們現在的處境感覺很好。我們付出了很多努力才到達這裡。產品看起來很棒。我們現在在經銷商處有大量可用庫存，我們對他們將走向何方感到興奮。

And for the rest of the launches, John, Super Duty launch looks good this year. Transit launch looks good this year. Puma in Europe looks good. We have a lot of work to do for the next year's launches, but I feel good about where we are for the rest of the year.

對於其餘的發布，約翰，今年 Super Duty 的發布看起來不錯。今年的公車推出看起來不錯。歐洲的彪馬看起來不錯。明年的發布我們還有很多工作要做，但我對今年剩下的時間裡我們的進展感到滿意。

Okay. And then one quick last one on Ford Motor Credit given the rate environment is shifting around on us in a direction that we expected 12 months ago. You had the credit downgrade at Moody's. I'm just curious, as you're managing Ford Motor Credit, is -- has anything changed in the way you're thinking about the business? And where are we on the shift of getting better return on assets on sort of a constrained -- a purposely constrained asset basing? Could we see returns improve or profitability improve as soon as next year based on sort of those actions?

好的。然後是福特汽車信貸公司的最後一篇文章，因為利率環境正在朝著我們 12 個月前預期的方向轉變。你的信用評級被穆迪下調了。我只是好奇，當您管理福特汽車信貸時，您對業務的思考方式有什麼變化嗎？我們在以某種受限制的——故意受限制的資產為基礎獲得更好的資產回報方面處於什麼轉變？基於這些行動，我們最快明年就能看到回報改善或獲利能力改善嗎？

So John, Jim Hackett. I'm going to hand it to David McClelland. As a former bank Board member managing through the crisis in this last decade, I'm really proud of the Ford Credit discipline. In fact, our efficiencies improved. We aren't using more leverage to improve returns, so we're very careful about that. But David, you can talk about the great news we keep getting from Ford Credit.

所以約翰，吉姆·哈克特。我要把它交給大衛‧麥克萊蘭。作為過去十年中應對危機的前銀行董事會成員，我對福特信貸紀律感到非常自豪。事實上，我們的效率有所提高。我們不會使用更多槓桿來提高回報，因此我們對此非常謹慎。但是大衛，你可以談談我們不斷從福特信貸公司得到的好消息。

Yes. John, this is David. So I'm echoing what Jim is saying. I'm very comfortable with the way the credit company is going. The portfolio looks very strong. I mentioned this in the last earnings call, and I haven't seen any change in that. We manage -- as you know, we manage our business. We stated that we want to keep it around $150 billion. We manage the leverage between 8:1 to 9:1, as Jim just mentioned.

是的。約翰，這是大衛。所以我同意吉姆的話。我對信貸公司的運作方式非常滿意。該投資組合看起來非常強大。我在上次財報電話會議中提到了這一點，但我沒有看到任何變化。我們管理—如您所知，我們管理我們的業務。我們表示希望將其保持在 1500 億美元左右。正如吉姆剛才提到的，我們將槓桿控制在 8:1 到 9:1 之間。

You guys know how much equity is employed in the business and you know that we expect to get, and we've made this quite public, between 8% and 12% return on that equity. So when you do the math, our expected earnings should be about $2 billion. This year, we've had -- you referenced it in your question. We've had good news, interest rates versus what we expected. So we've seen that in our DMV numbers, and the used vehicle performance has been better than we expected. We've said now that we think the used vehicles will be down about 2% for the year. We're about 1.8% so far for the year. I know that that's slightly different to what Manheim has said, but then I look specifically at the trend last year in used vehicles and I look at what happened in the fourth quarter last year and then, most importantly, I look at the return mix, and the Manheim is actually off a 2001 segmentation. So when you look specifically at the Ford Credit return mix, I feel comfortable that 2% is about right. So overall -- sorry, go ahead.

你們知道公司有多少股權，也知道我們期望獲得 8% 到 12% 的股權回報率，而我們已經公開了這一點。因此，如果你算一下，我們的預期收入應該約為 20 億美元。今年，您在問題中提到了這一點。我們得到了好消息，利率低於我們的預期。因此，我們在 DMV 數據中看到，二手車的性能比我們預期的要好。我們現在已經說過，我們認為今年二手車銷量將下降約 2%。今年到目前為止，我們的成長率約為 1.8%。我知道這與曼海姆所說的略有不同，但我特別關注了去年二手車的趨勢，我關注了去年第四季度發生的情況，然後，最重要的是，我關注了回報組合， Manheim實際上已經脫離了2001 年的細分。因此，當你具體觀察福特信貸的回報組合時，我覺得 2% 左右是合適的。總的來說——抱歉，請繼續。

Yes. But has there been any shift in the portfolio so far, maybe away from dealer floor plan financing to maybe a higher-margin retail business? I'm just trying to understand where we are in -- through that shift.

是的。但到目前為止，投資組合是否有任何轉變，可能從經銷商平面圖融資轉向利潤率更高的零售業務？我只是想透過這種轉變來了解我們所處的位置。

No, the floor plan, the floor plan in the U.S., the amount of floor plan we do in the U.S. is pretty constant, and we expect it to stay there. We do most of the floor plan in Europe. We haven't seen a change in China. Our FICO is pretty constant, and our sort of marginal business, as you've seen over the last 10 quarters, remain constant, 6%. So we're not seeing any change.

不，平面圖，美國的平面圖，我們在美國所做的平面圖數量相當穩定，我們預計它會保持在那裡。我們在歐洲完成大部分平面圖。我們沒有看到中國發生任何變化。我們的 FICO 相當穩定，正如您在過去 10 個季度中看到的那樣，我們的邊際業務保持穩定，為 6%。所以我們沒有看到任何變化。

And our next question is going to come from the line of Rod Lache, Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自沃爾夫研究中心的 Rod Lache。

I had a couple. Just on Q4, to follow on John's question. North America must be quite a bit lower-than-expected in the quarter. And I was wondering, is there an unusual warranty catch-up impact in there? How should we be thinking about warranty, which is up a lot over the past 2 years? Anything in there that shouldn't recur next year? And then also on pricing, I'm still puzzled by what changed relative to incentives. Just thinking about the market, one of the biggest changes that's happened since your last call is that GM has had a strike, and their in-transit pipeline is basically emptied out. So if anything, with your biggest competitor declining to maybe 50 days of inventory, I would think that the pricing environment gets better from here. So it sounds like you disagree. I was hoping you can elaborate.

我有一對。就在第四個問題上，跟進約翰的問題。北美本季的業績肯定比預期低很多。我想知道，其中是否存在不尋常的保固追趕影響？我們該如何考慮過去兩年大幅上漲的保固？其中有什麼明年不會再發生的事情嗎？然後在定價方面，我仍然對相對於激勵措施的變化感到困惑。想想市場，自從你上次打電話以來發生的最大變化之一是通用汽車發生了罷工，他們的在途管道基本上被清空了。因此，如果有什麼不同的話，隨著您最大的競爭對手的庫存量下降到 50 天左右，我認為定價環境從此會變得更好。所以聽起來你不同意。我希望你能詳細說明一下。

Thanks, Rod. This is like the Chicago thing. I just want to make it clear that the management team, starting with me, understand that warranty is an opportunity for us to fix things that underlie challenges in our processes or the way we've done things. It's my early work that I got involved in, Rod, in fact, when we met in New York in our first gathering, I talked to you about this that we attack the product development process with a lot of vigor.

謝謝，羅德。這就像芝加哥的事情。我只是想明確表示，從我開始的管理團隊都明白，保固是我們解決流程或工作方式中存在挑戰的問題的機會。這是我早期參與的工作，Rod，事實上，當我們在紐約第一次聚會時，我就和你談到了我們以很大的活力來攻擊產品開發過程。

And you understand the gestation period in the auto industry. So a lot of the improvement that we have made, Jim Farley, Joe Hinrichs, myself, Hau Thai-Tang, in getting the portfolio to generate all the new products that we're talking about, coming with less capital committed that we -- that was planned when this new regime started, $20 billion less. I'm confident that the work that the PD process is undertaking is going to generate better performance. However, with that said, Joe and I are committed to control of our business. And we've been surprised ourselves by some of these things because these are, Joe will explain, products and service, some that are longer, 3 and 4 years out, that, of course, we have to deal for our customers with problems, and we'll do that.

你也了解汽車產業的醞釀期。因此，我們已經做出了很多改進，Jim Farley、Joe Hinrichs、我自己、Hau Thai-Tang，在讓投資組合產生我們正在談論的所有新產品方面，用更少的資金承諾——這是新政權一開始就計畫好的，減少了200 億美元。我相信 PD 流程正在進行的工作將產生更好的績效。然而，話雖如此，喬和我致力於控制我們的業務。我們對其中的一些事情感到驚訝，因為喬會解釋說，這些是產品和服務，有些是更長的，3年和4年，當然，我們必須為我們的客戶處理問題，我們會這麼做的。

There's also, with the DPS-6 transmission, we made a decision as a team to remove any kind of question from ongoing ownership of the vehicles beyond really first ownership, that the company would stand behind the performance of the product. So this is a big Ford commitment to make sure that no one was suffering through that product challenge. I feel really good from what the company can control that we've got a handle on that.

此外，對於 DPS-6 變速箱，我們作為一個團隊做出了一項決定，消除除真正首次擁有車輛之外的持續擁有車輛的任何問題，即公司將支持產品的性能。因此，這是福特的一項重大承諾，旨在確保沒有人遭受該產品挑戰。我對公司可以控制的事情感覺非常好，因為我們已經處理好了。

So let me just summarize by saying warranty is getting a lot of attention. And the first thing is that the PD process, it has been restructured in the smart redesign. Hau's work there was kind of leading the company. But the benefits of all that are in the next-generation of products.

因此，我總結一下，保固受到了很多關注。首先是PD流程，它在智慧重新設計中進行了重組。豪在那裡的工作可以說是公司的領導者。但所有這些的好處都體現在下一代產品中。

So Joe, maybe you can comment like on these historical products what we've learned.

所以喬，也許你可以評論一下我們所學到的這些歷史產品。

Yes, Rod, thanks. So if you look at it, the bulk of the warranty cost increases are in North America. '18 model year and before that are the model years where we've seen an increase in the higher time in service warranty claims than we had accrued for and have been planning for. That's largely driven by some powertrain actions, some of those suppliers, some of them our own. As Jim suggested, we've done a lot of rework on our product development process to make sure we've learned from this. But we have to get this bubble working through a system that we're seeing is here. We're seeing really good progress in our '19 model year vehicle at the same point in time, including 6 months, 9 months in service, those kind of things. So we feel really good about the progress we're making, but we have this '18 model year and a few years before that working its way through the system.

是的，羅德，謝謝。因此，如果你看一下，你會發現保固成本增加的大部分來自北美。'18 車型年及之前的車型年份中，我們發現服務保固索賠時間比我們累積和計劃的時間更長。這主要是由一些動力總成行動推動的，其中一些是供應商，一些是我們自己的。正如吉姆所建議的那樣，我們對產品開發流程進行了大量返工，以確保我們從中學習。但我們必須讓這個泡沫透過我們現在看到的系統發揮作用。我們在同一時間點看到我們的 19 車型年車輛取得了非常好的進展，包括 6 個月、9 個月的服務，諸如此類的事情。因此，我們對所取得的進展感到非常滿意，但我們已經在 18 年車型和之前幾年的系統中發揮了作用。

The way our process works, of course, we accrue for forward models based on the experience we've been having. And so it takes a little while for that to work its way through the system. But that's what you're seeing. So it is largely in North America from that perspective. And that's why you see it.

當然，我們的流程的運作方式是根據我們一直以來的經驗來累積遠期模型。因此，它需要一段時間才能在系統中發揮作用。但這就是你所看到的。所以從這個角度來看，它主要是在北美。這就是你看到它的原因。

On U.S. incentives, I just want to go back to what I was saying before, first of all, we haven't seen a markedly different approach by any of our competitors in the marketplace recently. We'll watch that very carefully, of course. Our F-150 transaction prices are $3,000 higher than the all-new Ram and Silverado, even though our truck is a couple of years older. But we are watching. As I said, there are a couple of segments where we saw some changes in the dynamics that we didn't plan for in the second half. Ranger and Edge were 2 of them that I was referring to.

關於美國的激勵措施，我只想回到我之前所說的，首先，我們最近沒有看到市場上任何競爭對手採取明顯不同的做法。當然，我們會非常仔細地觀察。我們的 F-150 交易價格比全新 Ram 和 Silverado 高出 3,000 美元，儘管我們的卡車比其舊了幾年。但我們正在觀察。正如我所說，有幾個環節我們看到了下半年我們沒有計劃到的一些動態變化。Ranger 和 Edge 是我提到的其中兩個。

But I also said that we saw in the third quarter, and we've also seen in October so far, the market has been pretty disciplined, to your point, and we're watching that very carefully. But a little bit of the -- the bulk of the guidance change is really warranty related, I just want to be clear. Some of these other issues are also important, but the warranty that we're seeing that we have to address from '18 model year and before is really the majority of what's changed in North America.

但我也說過，我們在第三季度看到，而且在 10 月到目前為止，市場一直非常有紀律，正如您所說，我們正在非常仔細地觀察這一點。但我只是想澄清一下，大部分指導變更確實與保固相關。其中一些其他問題也很重要，但我們看到我們必須從 18 車型年及之前解決的保固問題實際上是北美發生的大部分變化。

Could you just clarify what the charge is for preexisting warranty that you're rolling through the numbers this year? And then just my last question is what signs should we be taking away, looking at the international numbers and kind of thinking forward. Obviously, there are savings here in Europe, China and South America, but the volumes are down as well in those markets. So as you sort of look at what's happening here, any color on how we should be thinking about the trajectory of improvement from here as we think about next year, the positives on costs, maybe higher compliance cost issues, that kind of thing?

您能否澄清一下您今年滾動的現有保固費用是多少？我的最後一個問題是，我們應該透過國際數據和前瞻性思考來消除哪些跡象。顯然，歐洲、中國和南美有儲蓄，但這些市場的交易量也在下降。因此，當你看看這裡發生的事情時，當我們考慮明年時，我們應該如何思考這裡的改進軌跡，成本的積極因素，也許更高的合規成本問題，諸如此類的事情？

So Rod, on the go-forward warranty, what Tim and Joe have done in the expectations for the year, they've given you that in terms of the way the year has been projected. So we don't go out beyond that. Of course, we have our normal reserve for warranty.

羅德，關於前進保修，蒂姆和喬在今年的預期中所做的事情，他們已經按照今年的預測方式向您提供了這一點。所以我們不會超出這個範圍。當然，我們有正常的保固儲備。

But Tim, I'm going to let you add any color that might help him with that.

但是提姆，我會讓你添加任何可能對他有幫助的顏色。

No, it's exactly as you said. And from a warranty cost perspective, just to be clear, we do expect warranty to be up year-over-year. And again, it's a key driver of our change in guidance for the fourth quarter. The accruals we go through every quarter, of course, and accruals are appropriate and reflect the experiences we've seen of warranties to date through that point in time.

不，確實如你所說。從保固成本的角度來看，需要明確的是，我們確實預計保固會逐年增加。同樣，這是我們改變第四季指導的關鍵驅動因素。當然，我們每季都要經歷的應計費用是適當的，並且反映了我們迄今為止在該時間點所看到的保固經驗。

And Joe, you might talk about the color in Asia.

喬，你可能會談論亞洲的顏色。

Yes. On the international markets, Rod, we've seen progress, obviously, this year in Europe and in China. I think the European team is really making a lot of progress on the redesign work that's been in place now for quite some time. We feel good about the progress we're making. South America is feeling some pressure from what's going on in Argentina, but the South America business continues to make improvements as well in their restructuring. So both Europe and South America are really well on plan where we want them to be on the redesign efforts.

是的。羅德，在國際市場上，我們今年顯然在歐洲和中國看到了進展。我認為歐洲團隊在已經進行了一段時間的重新設計工作上確實取得了很大進展。我們對所取得的進展感到滿意。南美業務因阿根廷的局勢而感受到一些壓力，但南美業務在重組中也持續取得進展。因此，歐洲和南美都在計劃中，我們希望他們能夠參與重新設計工作。

On China, our sales have not come up as fast as we were expecting them to in the second half of this year. Part of that's industry, but part of that's our own performance. We're really seeing the dealer networks starting to really grow their sales force, their profitabilities returning so -- and our inventory is in really good shape, so we're watching that very carefully. I think the one to watch is the China industry and how well do we do with our new models that were launched in the third quarter like the Focus Active, the Edge ST and ST line, the Taurus, the Territory EV, a number of other products coming. We need to show growth in our China volumes.

在中國，我們今年下半年的銷售成長速度沒有我們預期的那麼快。部分原因在於產業，但部分原因在於我們自己的表現。我們確實看到經銷商網絡開始真正擴大他們的銷售隊伍，他們的盈利能力也隨之恢復——而且我們的庫存狀況非常好，所以我們正在非常仔細地觀察。我認為值得關注的是中國行業，以及我們在第三季度推出的新車型的表現如何，例如 Focus Active、Edge ST 和 ST 系列、Taurus、Territory EV 以及其他一些車型。產品來了。我們需要展示我們在中國的銷售成長。

So the volumes are down, as you suggested. Part of that's intentional with some of the product changes we made, choices we made in Europe to get out of some of that volume. And with the downsizing we're doing in Europe, we've got a focus in Fiesta -- I'm sorry, in South America, got a focus in Fiesta production. That's by design. But I think, hopefully, you'll see from here forward, we can grow the business in China with the products we have, and you'll see continued improvements in the European business.

因此，正如您所建議的那樣，成交量有所下降。其中一部分是我們有意對產品進行的一些改變，以及我們在歐洲所做的選擇，以減少部分銷售量。隨著我們在歐洲進行的裁員，我們將重點放在嘉年華上——對不起，在南美洲，我們將重點放在嘉年華的生產上。這是設計使然。但我認為，希望您從現在開始會看到，我們可以利用我們擁有的產品來發展在中國的業務，並且您將看到歐洲業務的持續改進。

And our next question is going to come from the line of Joseph Spak, RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Joseph Spak。

I guess I want to turn back to North America and dive back into the Explorer a little bit. So you mentioned wholesales in North America were down slightly. In the U.S., they were up slightly. I think that's pretty close to what you did from a production standpoint. So I guess the real question is, are -- were all those Explorers that we read about the challenges about wholesaled this quarter? Are there vehicles at Flat Rock as has been reported? And even if they are at Flat, are they wholesaled? And I guess, if they were wholesaled or sent to dealers, if you're still doing rework on them, is that also some of the costs that might be considered in the fourth quarter?

我想我想回到北美並深入探索探索者。所以你提到北美的批發量略有下降。在美國，這一數字略有上升。我認為從製作的角度來看，這與您所做的非常接近。所以我想真正的問題是——我們讀到的所有關於本季挑戰的探索者都是批發的嗎？弗拉特羅克 (Flat Rock) 是否像報道的那樣有車輛？即使它們在 Flat 上，也是批發的嗎？我想，如果它們是批發的或發送給經銷商的，如果你還在對它們進行返工，這也是第四季度可能考慮的一些成本嗎？

So Joe Hinrichs can clear this up. I am not happy with the press' view of the way we work through this. I mean I'm just going to tickle your fancy a little bit by having you understand how diverse supply chains are in the auto industry. I mean products come from all kinds of trajectories in terms of what makes them up. There's no companies that are vertically integrated anymore. So the way the reporter talked about how things are moved around and shifted as indication that the process was broken, that's just not fair.

所以喬·辛里奇斯可以解決這個問題。我對媒體對我們解決這個問題的方式的看法並不滿意。我的意思是，我只是想讓您了解汽車行業供應鏈的多樣性，從而稍微激起您的興趣。我的意思是，產品的組成軌跡多種多樣。不再有垂直整合的公司了。因此，記者談論事物如何移動和轉移的方式表明該過程被破壞，這是不公平的。

We were doing things because we were trying to take some of the pressure off this job per hours, or JPH, that Joe talked about. We could reduce some of the complexity. That actually worked. So that's been laid out, it was painted as a negative, it was actually misrepresented. And what he was saying to you is that the wholesales were still down 19,000 units, but that was worse last quarter. So we've made a lot of progress.

我們所做的事情是因為我們試圖減輕喬所說的每小時工作（JPH）的一些壓力。我們可以降低一些複雜性。這確實有效。所以這已經被擺出來了，它被描繪成負面的，它實際上被扭曲了。他對你說的是批發量仍然下降了 19,000 件，但上個季度情況更糟。所以我們已經取得了很大的進步。

But Joe, I don't know if you want to add more to it.

但是喬，我不知道你是否想添加更多內容。

Sure. So Joe, let me just be clear. We've shipped about -- till the end of the third quarter, which is the data I'm referring to, we've shipped about 96,000 units. We had about 9,500 in inventory. Most of those are in Chicago. There's a couple of thousands still in Flat Rock. Just a reminder, there's no physical space around the Chicago assembly plant. So when we have any issue, there's no place to put the vehicles. I mean if you've ever been to the south side of Chicago, you know there's no physical space.

當然。所以喬，讓我說清楚。我們已經發貨了大約——到第三季末，這就是我指的數據，我們已經發貨了大約 96,000 件。我們的庫存約為 9,500 件。其中大部分在芝加哥。弗拉特羅克 (Flat Rock) 仍有數千人。請注意，芝加哥裝配廠周圍沒有實體空間。所以當我們遇到任何問題時，就沒有地方放置車輛。我的意思是，如果您曾經去過芝加哥南側，您就會知道那裡沒有物理空間。

But some of the reports have been overly dramatized. We've used Flat Rock for many launches, did this in the past because Flat Rock right now is working on one shift. It has plenty of capacity. It has a lot of skilled people, has a rail yard nearby. And when you're doing software updates or even if you're doing some physical repairs to the vehicle or doing some inspections, having skilled people and having floor space and space in the yard to be able to do that is much more important to be able to do that with a good quality than trying to force it, moving vehicles around because you have no physical space.

但有些報道過於戲劇化。我們在很多次發布中都使用了 Flat Rock，過去就是這麼做的，因為 Flat Rock 現在實行的是輪班制。它有足夠的容量。它有很多技術人員，附近有一個鐵路站場。當您進行軟體更新時，或​​者即使您正在對車輛進行一些物理維修或進行一些檢查時，擁有熟練的人員以及能夠做到這一點的佔地面積和院子裡的空間就更加重要能夠以良好的質量做到這一點，而不是試圖強迫它，因為你沒有物理空間而四處移動車輛。

So we think we'll have all the inventory cleared out by the end of November, and we feel really good about that. We have plenty of inventory out in the field now for both Explorers and Aviators in the dealerships. A lot of that came on pretty quickly admittedly in September and October. We've been shipping what -- actually in the last week, we've shipped a little more than we actually built because we're actually starting to clear out some of those units. So we're shipping what we're building right now, and we feel really good about the flow of that going forward.

因此，我們認為我們將在 11 月底之前清理掉所有庫存，對此我們感覺非常好。我們現在在經銷店為探險家和飛行員系列備有充足的庫存。誠然，其中很多事情在九月和十月發生得很快。我們一直在運送什麼——實際上在上週，我們運送的數量比我們實際建造的多一點，因為我們實際上開始清理其中一些單位。因此，我們正在交付我們現在正在建立的產品，我們對未來的流程感到非常滿意。

But we just don't -- we don't talk about it, but we've leveraged Flat Rock a number of times over the last 5 or 6 years on launches. But unfortunately, the lost production that we had and the slower ramp-up than we expected in Chicago led to people wanting to report on those things as well.

但我們只是不——我們不談論它，但我們在過去五六年的發布中多次利用了 Flat Rock。但不幸的是，我們在芝加哥的產量損失和成長速度比我們預期的要慢，導致人們也想報告這些事情。

So our first and foremost approach, of course, is protect the customers and keep them -- yes, keep them well protected. And I want to be clear about one of your questions, we don't recognize the vehicles as wholesaled in our revenue stream until they're released with good quality and salable to the dealer and to the customers. So all those vehicles that I'm telling you, they are still on hold. They are not wholesaled. Okay, we don't wholesale until we're -- until they're gate released with the quality to be able to be sold.

因此，我們首要的方法當然是保護客戶並留住他們——是的，讓他們得到良好的保護。我想澄清你的一個問題，我們不承認這些車輛是在我們的收入來源中批發的，直到它們以良好的品質發布並可銷售給經銷商和客戶。所以我告訴你的所有這些車輛仍然處於擱置狀態。它們不批發。好吧，我們不會批發，直到它們以能夠出售的品質上市。

In fact, that discipline is really important because if we lose 1 customer, can you imagine the future cash flow loss of losing a customer? So it's better that we get this right. The other thing, Joe, is, if you follow the Transit business or the F-150 business, those have multiple factories. So we're in the middle of launches with those vehicles. There's relief because of the way Joe Hinrichs can move things around. So I'm just echoing what he said to you, Flat Rock was not evidence of chaos, it was evidence of us making sure things were right.

事實上，這種紀律非常重要，因為如果我們失去一位客戶，你能想像失去一位客戶的未來現金流損失嗎？所以我們最好把這件事做好。喬，另一件事是，如果您關注 Transit 業務或 F-150 業務，這些業務擁有多個工廠。因此，我們正在推出這些車輛。喬辛里奇 (Joe Hinrichs) 的移動方式讓我鬆了一口氣。所以我只是重複他對你說的話，Flat Rock 並不是混亂的證據，而是我們確保事情正確的證據。

Okay. On the -- automotive free cash flow is still higher year-over-year. I noticed in the quarter, the Ford Credit distribution was up. And I think year-to-date now, it's at $2.4 billion, which I think is only slightly below what you sort of kind of previously indicated for the year. So within that guidance, are you raising the Ford Credit distribution for this year because maybe the performance of Ford Credit is stronger? And then while we're on cash flow, just on -- maybe if you could provide an update on some of the cash with the redesign cash flow because, again, that looks sort of light to the $1.5 billion to $2 billion you've indicated prior to this year unless there's a big fourth quarter.

好的。汽車自由現金流仍同比較高。我注意到，在本季度，福特信貸的分配有所增加。我認為今年迄今為止，該數字為 24 億美元，僅略低於您之前表示的今年數字。因此，在該指導範圍內，您是否會提高今年的福特信貸分配，因為福特信貸的表現可能更強？然後，當我們討論現金流時，也許您可以透過重新設計的現金流提供一些現金的最新信息，因為，這對於您所擁有的 15 億至 20 億美元來說，看起來有點輕。除非有一個大的第四季度，否則今年之前就已經表明了。

So Tim, you field those.

所以提姆，你負責這些。

You bet. This is Tim. So as it relates to Ford Credit, the cash distributions tend to track with profitability for Ford Credit, and that's been consistent over time. So that will just be the natural flow. We haven't given specific Ford credit cash flow guidance, but it's certainly factored into our expectation that we'll have growth in free cash flow, and it's been part of the 80% growth we've seen year-to-date so far this year.

你打賭。這是蒂姆。因此，就福特信貸而言，現金分配往往與福特信貸的獲利能力掛鉤，而且隨著時間的推移，這種情況一直保持一致。所以這將是自然的流程。我們還沒有給出具體的福特信貸現金流指引，但它肯定已納入我們的預期中，即我們的自由現金流將增長，而且這是今年我們迄今看到的 80% 增長的一部分。

On the special items, the cash thus far in 2019 has been $0.7 billion. And we had said in Q2 that we expected $1.5 billion to $2 billion of cash. We've had a deferral on that. Similarly, earlier in the year, we expected $2 billion to $2.5 billion in cash. So we continue to refine our estimates of the cash ramifications from the restructuring actions that we're taking and then now expect $1 billion to $1.5 billion in 2019, again, $0.7 billion of which has already occurred.

在特殊項目方面，2019 年迄今的現金已達 7 億美元。我們在第二季曾表示，預計將有 15 億至 20 億美元的現金。我們已經推遲了這件事。同樣，今年早些時候，我們預計現金為 20 億至 25 億美元。因此，我們繼續完善對我們正在採取的重組行動的現金影響的估計，現在預計 2019 年將達到 10 億至 15 億美元，其中 7 億美元已經發生。

Just to be clear on the Ford Credit distribution, I guess versus what you thought after the second quarter embedded in the automotive free cash, is the distribution higher than prior?

只是為了澄清福特信貸的分配，我想與您在第二季度嵌入汽車自由現金後的想法相比，分配是否高於之前？

Yes, we haven't given any specific commentary on when and how the flows occur, but again, it tracked with profitability over time.

是的，我們沒有對流動發生的時間和方式給出任何具體評論，但同樣，它隨著時間的推移而跟踪盈利能力。

Our next question is going to come from the line of Brian Johnson, Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的布萊恩·約翰遜。

So a couple of questions. First, vis-à-vis Ford Credit, since a lot of the auto questions have been asked. A little bit surprised by the cut in -- or the improvement in expected decline in auction values given some softness we saw in Manheim overall in the quarter. Is there something specific to the kind of lease returns that you've been getting or something that makes it a little bit better? And then kind of as you kind of roll forward into next year, what's your expectation on that?

有幾個問題。首先，針對福特信貸，因為已經提出了許多汽車問題。考慮到我們在本季曼海姆整體上看到的一些疲軟，拍賣價格的下降或預期下降的改善有點令人驚訝。您所獲得的租賃回報有什麼特別之處，或者有什麼可以讓情況變得更好的嗎？然後，當你進入明年時，你對此有何期望？

Yes, Brian, I'll turn that to David, but I have to smile because I'm really proud of the brand, so I do think the brand carries when you talk about F-150 pickup trucks and things like that.

是的，布萊恩，我會把這個問題轉給大衛，但我必須微笑，因為我真的為這個品牌感到自豪，所以我確實認為當你談論F-150 皮卡車和類似的東西時，這個品牌就代表著這個品牌。

But David, am I right about that?

但是大衛，我說得對嗎？

Thanks for the question. I think I touched on it a little earlier. So we look at the performance year-to-date which is down just short of 2%. And then I looked at the performance last year, throughout the year and the trends actually over the last few years and then what happened last year in the fourth quarter and then specifically and importantly, looked at the return mix, which is what Jim was getting at. And if you look at the return mix, remember, Manheim is off really historical mix. So if you look at our specific return mix, I feel comfortable that the 2% number is about right.

謝謝你的提問。我想我早些時候就談到過它。因此，我們看看今年迄今的表現，下降了近 2%。然後我查看了去年、全年的表現以及過去幾年的實際趨勢，然後是去年第四季度發生的情況，然後具體而重要的是，查看了回報組合，這就是吉姆得到的在。如果你看看回歸組合，請記住，曼海姆並不是真正的歷史組合。因此，如果你看看我們的具體回報率組合，我會覺得 2% 的數字大約是正確的。

Okay. Good. And the second question, as long as we're going into Ford Credit, there's been a lot of negativity in the press around extended loan terms, sub-prime, underwater trade-ins being rolled into the loan, which would imply Ford loan to values. Can you comment, a, just on the general industry trend there and, b, the Ford Credit-specific approach to that?

好的。好的。第二個問題，只要我們進入福特信貸，媒體上就會出現很多關於延長貸款期限、次級抵押貸款、水下以舊換新的負面情緒，這意味著福特貸款價值觀。您能否評論一下，a，僅評論那裡的總體行業趨勢，b，福特信貸對此的具體方法？

Well, again, Jim Hackett. I'm one to warrant to you, the way we run this company is what I'd like to talk about. And it's -- there's a lot of integrity in the way we think about this balance sheet and the way we handle customers. I don't really want to comment on the others. There are practices that you would see that we would not accept at Ford Credit. David?

好吧，又是吉姆·哈克特。我可以向你們保證，我想談論的是我們經營這家公司的方式。我們看待資產負債表和處理客戶的方式非常誠信。我實在不想評論其他人。您可能會發現，有些做法是福特信貸公司不接受的。大衛？

Sure. Yes, thanks. So the -- again, echoing what Jim said, not to talk about outside Ford Credit, but I can talk with some confidence about the credit company itself. The business that we're putting on the books remains very strong. We're -- FICO for the quarter is 750. And we're not moving at all on any of the higher-risk business that we're doing. And then really to the heart of your question, we're not in the longer term. So we're not -- even if the average transaction price is going up, we're not seeing any movement on our longer-term business with the mix of that. The 84-month is only 3%.

當然。對了謝謝。因此，再次呼應吉姆所說的，不要談論福特信貸公司之外的事情，但我可以充滿信心地談論信用公司本身。我們登記在冊的業務仍然非常強勁。我們本季的 FICO 是 750。我們根本不會繼續我們正在做的任何高風險業務。然後真正說到你問題的核心，我們的目標不是長遠。因此，即使平均交易價格上漲，我們的長期業務也不會出現任何變化。84個月僅3%。

There's nothing that I'm seeing in the performance in terms of delinquency. Even the early, early defaults, nondelinquent defaults are not moving, 30s, 60s, 90s are fine. In our slides, there's a seasonality on the LTR, but that is simply seasonality. Just look at 2Q '18 versus 2Q '19. Your prior question about the disposal in terms of the residual values are pretty good. So I mean we're staying diligent, but I'm comfortable and confident that what you're reading about is not what you're seeing in the credit company.

我在表演中沒有看到任何違法行為。即使是早期、早期違約、非拖欠違約也不會動，30 年代、60 年代、90 年代都可以。在我們的幻燈片中，LTR 有季節性，但這只是季節性。只要看看 2018 年第 2 季與 19 年第 2 季的比較即可。你之前關於殘值處置的問題很好。所以我的意思是，我們會保持勤奮，但我很放心並且有信心，您所讀到的內容並不是您在信貸公司中看到的內容。

Our next question will come from the line of Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Good. Just 2 quick questions, and apologies for the background noise. Just wanted to zone in on the consolidated China business which, to my understanding, is an important product. It is, I know, very Lincoln-heavy from the U.S. into China, calculating an operating margin loss of around negative 25%, negative 30%, in that territory. Can you just again justify or explain why would you do that? I guess this doesn't strike me as a business worth doing. Do we have a choice -- do you have a choice to just stop doing that? Just stop selling U.S.-made cars into China which, for a variety of reasons, a global automaker, you think you got to make where you've -- you got to make where you sell. Is that something you can stop doing? Or is there a story of you trying to keep the blood in the patient, the dealer lifeline kind of going in on that, and that can kind -- we can cycle out of that and stop doing that stuff?

好的。只是兩個簡單的問題，並對背景噪音表示歉意。只是想專注於整合的中國業務，據我了解，這是一個重要的產品。我知道，從美國到中國，林肯的影響力非常大，計算出該地區的營業利潤損失約為負 25%，負 30%。您能否再次證明或解釋為什麼要這樣做？我想這對我來說並不值得做。我們有選擇嗎－你有選擇停止這樣做嗎？停止向中國銷售美國製造的汽車吧，出於各種原因，作為一家全球汽車製造商，你認為你必須在你銷售的地方生產。這是你可以停止做的事情嗎？或者有一個關於你試圖讓病人保持血液的故事，經銷商的生命線參與其中，這可以讓我們擺脫這種情況並停止做那些事情？

Yes. Well, I think your analysis, as always, is really good. And I mean imagine together the way we ask Joe Hinrichs to plan with the tariff structure that is in, it's up, it's out, it's down. And so I do think that I've been public, I said a year ago, when asked about this, I thought there would be a resolution in the way that we'd have certainty in, what I would say, equilibrium, if you remember that, we could plan our business. And Lincoln was responding really well to exports from here. That is an example where there's blood in the patient, so to speak. The brand was growing as fast as anything in the country, and we've made commitments -- people have made commitments to us. So -- and I thought where you were going was also about the larger question of participation in China, which is something I'm still committed to. I think this is -- there is a formula there, a business model that Ford can excel at.

是的。嗯，我認為你的分析一如既往地非常好。我的意思是，想像一下我們要求 Joe Hinrichs 制定關稅結構的方式，包括上漲、淘汰、下降。所以我確實認為我已經公開了，我一年前說過，當被問到這個問題時，我認為會有一個解決方案，我們可以確定，我想說的是，平衡，如果你請記住，我們可以規劃我們的業務。林肯對這裡的出口反應非常好。可以這麼說，這是一個病人體內有血的例子。該品牌的發展速度與國內其他品牌一樣快，我們已經做出了承諾——人們也向我們做出了承諾。所以——我認為你要去的地方也是關於參與中國的更大問題，這是我仍然致力於的事情。我認為這是——那裡有一個公式，一個福特可以擅長的商業模式。

But Joe, I don't know if there's any more -- remember, Joe Hinrichs, who's now President of Automotive, also got us started in China. So he's had some -- he was on the ground there and had experience. But the question Adam is asking of is there false -- are we doing false swings here that aren't sustainable?

但是喬，我不知道是否還有更多 - 請記住，現任汽車總裁的喬·辛里奇斯（Joe Hinrichs）也讓我們開始了在中國的業務。所以他有一些——他在那裡並有經驗。但亞當提出的問題是否有錯誤──我們是否在進行不可持續的錯誤波動？

Yes. It's a very fair question, Adam. And I recognize our consolidated operations in China are complicated because we have the Lincoln-imported products, some of the Ford-imported products. We also have the cost structure of Ford-owned entities and employees in China. And then we have our allocations that from the corporation and from engineering, et cetera, are in the consolidated numbers. So it's a compilation of a lot of things. Suffice to say, we don't believe in exporting vehicles at a contribution margin loss as long as we don't have a spike of import duties that are a near-term issue.

是的。這是一個非常公平的問題，亞當。我認識到我們在中國的綜合業務很複雜，因為我們有林肯進口產品，還有一些福特進口產品。我們還有福特在中國擁有的實體和員工的成本結構。然後我們得到來自公司和工程等的分配，這些都在合併數字中。所以它是很多東西的彙編。可以說，只要我們沒有出現近期進口關稅飆升的問題，我們就不相信會以貢獻邊際損失的方式出口車輛。

The solution to this largely is around localization plans for our business in China. We've been very public about we have 5 more vehicles being planned to be locally assembled in the near term. That includes the Lincoln, Corsair and the Ford Explorer. So we have a number of products that are going to be localized over the next year, 1.5 years, which will really influence this and will help us be more competitive cost-wise in the business in China but also will take away some of the exposure we've had to some of the fluctuations in tariff, so we feel good about that plan.

解決這個問題的主要方法是圍繞我們在中國的業務的本地化計劃。我們非常公開地表示，我們計劃在短期內再本地組裝 5 輛汽車。其中包括林肯、海盜船和福特探險家。因此，我們有許多產品將在明年（1.5年內）進行在地化，這將真正影響這一點，並將幫助我們在中國業務中更具成本競爭力，但也會減少一些曝光度我們必須面對關稅的一些波動，所以我們對該計劃感覺良好。

As you know and you noted, the Lincoln plan has been an import plan until now when we started localizing Lincoln Corsair and then more to come from there, which will really help with this. So they're contribution margin positive. There's a lot of costs in that consolidated business, but this will largely get taken care of by the localization plans we have going forward.

正如您所知並指出的，林肯計劃一直是一個進口計劃，直到我們開始本地化林肯海盜船，然後才會有更多計劃，這將對此真正有所幫助。所以他們的邊際貢獻為正。合併業務有很多成本，但這將在很大程度上透過我們未來的在地化計劃來解決。

And if I could just sneak in one more on hybrids. There seems to be this referendum going on in global autos where some companies are kind of canceling their hybrid programs and saying very openly that they view them as kind of regulatory cars and kind of client vehicles that consumers don't really fully value even if on paper they make sense, and they're really complicated vehicles and not a lot of capital to throw around. And others are moving right straight to EVs. And some might say, like you and Toyota, are in a camp of hybrids are the real deal. They're going to be with us for a long, long time and consumers value them.

如果我能在混合動力車上再偷偷溜一趟就好了。全球汽車業似乎正在進行一場公投，一些公司取消了混合動力計劃，並公開表示，他們將其視為監管汽車和客戶車輛，即使在這種情況下，消費者也不真正完全重視。從在紙上看，它們是有道理的，而且它們確實是複雜的工具，沒有太多的資金可以投入。其他人則直接轉向電動車。有些人可能會說，就像您和豐田一樣，屬於混合動力陣營才是真正的交易。它們將陪伴我們很長一段時間，消費者也很重視它們。

Maybe Joe, for you, if I were to ask you kind of 5, 10 years out, you're in a long-term business for a product you're planning now. Some will go on beyond sales for north of 5 years and have to be on the road for 10 or 20 years. Now put that longer-term hat on, are you equally bullish on hybrids as you are on EVs? If I force you to pick one, really, that 10-plus years, where is the incremental Ford dollar going to invest?

也許喬，對你來說，如果我問你 5 到 10 年後的情況，你現在正在規劃的產品是從事長期業務。有些產品將在銷售後 5 年以上，並且必須在路上行駛 10 或 20 年。現在，從長遠來看，您對混合動力汽車和電動車同樣看好嗎？如果我強迫你選擇一個，真的，那10多年，福特增量資金將投資在哪裡？

Yes, Adam. Thanks. There's a lot there. So when Jim Farley announced, I think it was now a year -- a little more than 1.5 years ago, of our $11 billion committed to electrification, we were all in on all parts of this discussion. Yes, we see significant growth in our hybrid business over the next 5 years. And part of that is we think that where consumers are today and where costs are today, that makes a lot of sense for the economic choice of the consumer. As you know, we're taking a portfolio approach to this. It isn't just about hybrids or plug-in hybrids, it's also battery electric vehicles, starting with a very exciting vehicle next year and the other ones are coming after that. So I think you are talking about a transition period, we think that hybrids will continue to be part of the equation for a number of years to come. But our BEV portfolio will grow substantially over the course of time. And that we think that ultimately is where this largely goes, but we do think -- do see a role for hybrids in the portfolio.

是的，亞當。謝謝。那裡有很多東西。因此，當 Jim Farley 宣布將投入 110 億美元用於電氣化時，我想現在已經一年了，也就是 1.5 年多一點，我們都參與了這次討論的所有部分。是的，我們看到未來 5 年內我們的混合業務將顯著成長。其中一部分是我們認為今天的消費者在哪裡以及今天的成本在哪裡，這對消費者的經濟選擇很有意義。如您所知，我們正在採取組合方法來解決這個問題。這不僅涉及混合動力車或插電式混合動力車，還涉及電池電動車，從明年開始推出一款非常令人興奮的汽車，隨後將推出其他汽車。所以我認為你正在談論一個過渡期，我們認為混合動力車將在未來幾年繼續成為方程式的一部分。但隨著時間的推移，我們的純電動車產品組合將大幅成長。我們認為這最終是這主要的發展方向，但我們確實認為——確實看到了混合動力在投資組合中的作用。

Remember, we get questions all the time about with the movement of sedans largely out of the North American portfolio, what happens if gas prices spike? Well, again, our portfolio approach, which we've been consistent all along, our new SUVs all have some kind of electrification as part of the -- each nameplate we're launching, so that we can offer solutions to customers if we should see a spike in fuel prices or other things. So there's a number of reasons why it's important to us, but we are bullish on battery electric vehicles. We think at least towards the end of the decade, that will be a significant portion of the portfolio, electrification. But we do still see hybrids as being an important part of the portfolio, especially in the near term where there's no compromise, no range anxiety for consumers.

請記住，我們一直收到這樣的問題：由於轎車主要不在北美市場，如果汽油價格飆升會發生什麼事？好吧，再說一遍，我們的產品組合方法一直以來都是一致的，我們的新SUV 都具有某種電氣化功能，作為我們推出的每個銘牌的一部分，這樣我們就可以在需要時為客戶提供解決方案看到燃油價格或其他東西的飆升。因此，它對我們很重要有很多原因，但我們看好純電動車。我們認為至少到本世紀末，電氣化將成為投資組合的重要組成部分。但我們仍然認為混合動力車是產品組合的重要組成部分，特別是在短期內，消費者不會妥協，也不會擔心里程問題。

In fact, Adam, I love -- when we had this exchange a year or so ago, I was doing the thing where I would bring up the computer industry as a proxy. And we were saying, "Can you convert that thinking about automotive?" You remember when computing was -- we were moving from chip size, Pentium, et cetera, and you would buy the next-generation computer based on that. And of course, that's been blown up in terms of the way the markets now respond to computing. What Apple's done in terms of the iPhone. We see the features and virtues rather than what's inside of it.

事實上，亞當，我喜歡——大約一年前我們進行這次交流時，我正在做的事情是我將電腦產業作為代理。我們問，“你能轉變對汽車的看法嗎？”你還記得當時的計算——我們正在從晶片尺寸、奔騰等轉向，你會基於此購買下一代電腦。當然，從市場現在對計算的反應方式來看，這種情況已經被放大了。蘋果在 iPhone 方面做了什麼。我們看到的是特徵和優點，而不是它的內在。

I think this is going to happen now in automotive. I give Jim Farley and Joe a lot of credit here as Ford was leading this way. In other words, all the rhetoric was around do you have electric vehicles or do you have hybrid vehicles. And we got this exciting thing coming in November that is going to take advantage...

我認為這將在汽車領域發生。我非常感謝吉姆法利和喬，因為福特在這條道路上處於領先地位。換句話說，所有的言論都圍繞著你有電動車還是混合動力車。我們在 11 月迎來了一件令人興奮的事情，這將利用...

Can't wait.

等不及了。

I know. And what I want you to imagine with me is the dialogue is going to start to shift because the nature of the product is going to be what's talked about rather than the propulsion. And of course, we're committed to that. We got this F-Series coming and then, of course, you know, we've been working on a battery electric inside of that. And imagine when the Bronco comes, how exciting, talking about Ford products is. So I just want to say that I love where you're going with the question, and I'm really excited about the way Ford is interpreting that.

我知道。我希望你們和我一起想像的是，對話將開始轉變，因為產品的本質將是所討論的內容，而不是推動力。當然，我們致力於此。我們推出了這款 F 系列，當然，我們一直在研究其內部的電池電動裝置。想像一下，當 Bronco 出現時，談論福特產品是多麼令人興奮。所以我只想說，我喜歡你提出的問題，而且我對福特解釋這個問題的方式感到非常興奮。

And just a reminder, as battery costs improve or lower, hybrids also become more affordable, not just the battery electric vehicles, so that becomes also part of the equation for the customer.

提醒一下，隨著電池成本的提高或降低，混合動力汽車也變得更加便宜，而不僅僅是純電動車，因此這也成為客戶考慮因素的一部分。

As long as the internal combustion part of the hybrid does not increase, does not offset that. But I get your point, John. I do appreciate both of you on answering the question.

只要混合動力的內燃部分不增加，就不會抵消這一點。但我明白你的意思，約翰。我非常感謝你們兩位回答這個問題。

Yes. Thank you. And so let me just close and say the third quarter results do have evidence of the global redesign of Ford. When you heard the news about how Europe persistently now is improving, and it's driving these positive shifts. But make no mistake, humility of the work that we still have to do. I'm still very confident in the team here and the progress that Ford Motor Company is making. We're focused on improving our fitness and our outcomes, just driving a winning portfolio where we're fortifying the strength, as you heard me just mention a moment ago to Adam, and improving mix. And we're focused on laying groundwork to improve the trajectory of long-term growth in cash flow and profitability. That evidence is really starting to show up.

是的。謝謝。最後，讓我說第三季的業績確實證明了福特的全球重新設計。當你聽到有關歐洲現在如何持續改善並推動這些積極轉變的消息。但毫無疑問，謙虛的工作是我們仍然要做的。我對這裡的團隊以及福特汽車公司正在取得的進步仍然非常有信心。我們專注於改善我們的健康和結果，只是推動一個獲勝的投資組合，我們正在增強實力，正如你剛剛聽到我剛剛向亞當提到的那樣，並改進組合。我們致力於奠定基礎，以改善現金流和獲利能力的長期成長軌跡。這些證據確實開始出現。

In the previous calls, you all asked us, are you sure your structural costs aren't rising? We really have attacked this, and I think we have good handle there, and then a commitment by me personally that things that you would expect us to do better that we are addressing and we are. So thank you very much for your attention this evening.

在之前的電話中，你們都問我們，你們確定你們的結構成本沒有上升嗎？我們確實已經對此進行了攻擊，我認為我們在這方面處理得很好，然後我個人承諾，您希望我們做得比我們正在解決的事情更好，而我們正在這樣做。非常感謝您今晚的關注。

Thank you. This does conclude the Ford Motor Company third quarter earnings conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

謝謝。福特汽車公司第三季財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。