福特汽車 (F) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Erica, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Ford Motor Company Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，美好的一天。我的名字是 Erica，今天我將成為您的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎您參加福特汽車公司 2021 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Lynn Antipas Tyson, Executive Director of Investor Relations.

此時，我想將電話轉給投資者關係執行董事 Lynn Antipas Tyson。

Thank you, Erica. Welcome to Ford Motor Company's third quarter 2021 earnings call. With me today are Jim Farley, President and CEO; and John Lawler, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us for Q&A is Marion Harris, CEO of Ford Credit.

謝謝你，艾麗卡。歡迎參加福特汽車公司 2021 年第三季度財報電話會議。今天和我在一起的是總裁兼首席執行官 Jim Farley；和我們的首席財務官 John Lawler。 Ford Credit 首席執行官 Marion Harris 也加入了我們的問答環節。

Today's discussions include some non-GAAP references. These are reconciled to the most comparable U.S. GAAP measures in the appendix of our earnings deck. You can find the deck, along with the rest of our earnings materials and other important content, at shareholder.ford.com, including some updated videos and proof points around our Ford+ plan for growth.

今天的討論包括一些非公認會計原則的參考。這些與我們收益表附錄中最具可比性的美國公認會計原則措施相一致。您可以在 sharepoint.ford.com 上找到該套牌以及我們的其他收益材料和其他重要內容，包括一些更新的視頻和圍繞我們的 Ford+ 增長計劃的證明點。

Today's discussion also includes forward-looking statements about our expectations. Actual results may differ from those stated. The most significant factors that could cause actual results to differ are included on Page 23.

今天的討論還包括關於我們預期的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與所述結果不同。第 23 頁列出了可能導致實際結果不同的最重要因素。

Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year-over-year. Company EBIT, EPS and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis. Product mix is volume weighted.

除非另有說明，否則所有比較均為同比。公司息稅前利潤、每股收益和自由現金流是在調整後的基礎上計算的。產品組合是體積加權的。

A quick update on our IR events for the balance of the year. We have 5.

快速更新我們今年餘下的 IR 活動。我們有 5 個。

On Monday, the 1st, November 1, Wolfe will host a fireside chat with John Lawler and Hau Thai-Tang, our Chief Product Platform and Operations Officer. On the 18th of November, Barclays will host a virtual fireside chat with Ted Cannis, our CEO of Ford Pro. In December, on the 3rd, Goldman Sachs will host a virtual fireside chat with Lisa Drake, our Chief Operating Officer for North America. On the 3rd, Credit Suisse will host a fireside chat with Hau Thai-Tang. And finally, on the 9th, Deutsche Bank will host a virtual fireside chat with Alex Purdy, our Director of Business Operations, Enterprise Connectivity.

11 月 1 日星期一，Wolfe 將與我們的首席產品平台和運營官 John Lawler 和 Hau Thai-Tang 進行爐邊談話。 11 月 18 日，巴克萊將與我們的福特 Pro 首席執行官 Ted Cannis 進行虛擬爐邊聊天。 12 月 3 日，高盛將與我們的北美首席運營官 Lisa Drake 進行虛擬爐邊談話。 3 日，瑞士信貸將與 Hau Thai-Tang 舉行爐邊談話。最後，在 9 日，德意志銀行將與我們的企業連接業務運營總監 Alex Purdy 進行一次虛擬爐邊聊天。

Now I'll turn the call over to Jim Farley.

現在我將把電話轉給 Jim Farley。

Thank you, Lynn. Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us today.

謝謝你，林恩。大家好，感謝您今天加入我們。

Well, this month marks 1 year since we began executing our Ford+ plan. It creates growth, value, and it allows us to win in emerging area of electric and connected vehicles. We built a strong team that combines top leaders from Ford, with world-class talent recruited from outside of our company, specific talent, specific people that are largely outside of our industry. This leadership team is committed to this plan, and we're accelerating our progress.

嗯，這個月是我們開始執行福特+計劃的 1 年。它創造了增長和價值，它使我們能夠在新興的電動和聯網汽車領域取勝。我們建立了一支強大的團隊，其中包括福特的頂級領導者，以及從我們公司外部招聘的世界級人才、特定人才、特定行業之外的特定人員。這個領導團隊致力於這個計劃，我們正在加快我們的進度。

Now, Ford+ is not a tagline. It's not advertising. It's a larger, more ambitious way to think about our business and how we bring value to our customers. We're creating iconic and distinctive products that only Ford can do, increasingly always on relationships with our customers and ever-improving user experiences, all while creating value for our shareholders. We're fully vested in this future, and we're taking big swings.

現在，Ford+ 不再是標語。這不是廣告。這是一種更大、更雄心勃勃的方式來思考我們的業務以及我們如何為客戶帶來價值。我們正在創造只有福特才能做到的標誌性和獨特的產品，越來越始終以與客戶的關係和不斷改善的用戶體驗為基礎，同時為我們的股東創造價值。我們對這個未來充滿信心，而且我們正在大刀闊斧。

Key to the plan is harnessing the power of connectivity. We're designing a new generation of fully networked vehicles, not delegated to our supply chain, but done inside the company to revolutionize the experience of owning and operating Ford vehicle. That's embedded technology to unleash unlimited innovation.

該計劃的關鍵是利用連接的力量。我們正在設計新一代完全聯網的汽車，不是委託給我們的供應鏈，而是在公司內部完成，以徹底改變擁有和運營福特汽車的體驗。這就是釋放無限創新的嵌入式技術。

We're scaling the number of vehicles capable of over their updates. We'll be moving from 1 million vehicles today to 33 million by 2028. That's scale.

我們正在擴大能夠進行更新的車輛數量。到 2028 年，我們將從今天的 100 萬輛汽車增加到 3300 萬輛汽車。這就是規模。

At the same time, we're moving aggressively to lead the electric vehicle revolution, substantially expanding our battery production as we speak today in the U.S. In fact, we already announced plans that will give us enough battery production to meet our mid-decade goal of 141 gigawatts, which is enough to build more than 1 million battery electric vehicles a year, and I think we'll need more.

與此同時，我們正在積極引領電動汽車革命，正如我們今天在美國所說的那樣，大幅擴大我們的電池產量。事實上，我們已經宣布了計劃，這些計劃將使我們有足夠的電池產量來實現我們的十年中期目標141 吉瓦，足以每年製造超過 100 萬輛電動汽車，我認為我們還需要更多。

Our $7 billion investment in BlueOval City in Tennessee and the BlueOval SK Battery Park in Kentucky sets a new standard for scale, sustainability, advanced manufacturing and training the next generation of technology leaders. At the same time, the $1 billion of investment in our electrified center in Cologne, Germany will allow us to go all electric soon. That center will be all electric by 2023.

我們在田納西州 BlueOval City 和肯塔基州 BlueOval SK Battery Park 的 70 億美元投資為規模、可持續性、先進製造和培訓下一代技術領導者樹立了新標準。與此同時，我們在德國科隆的電氣化中心投資了 10 億美元，這將使我們能夠很快實現全電動化。到 2023 年，該中心將全部實現電動化。

We're making final preparations to launch the F-150 Lightning, the defining zero-emission version of America's best-selling vehicle for the past 40-plus years.

我們正在為推出 F-150 Lightning 做最後準備，這是過去 40 多年來美國最暢銷車輛的定義零排放版本。

Our all-electric Mustang Mach-E is a hit with customers, not just in the U.S., but around the world, bringing a stunning number of new customers to the Ford brand. Over 90% of the Mach-E owners say they would recommend a Mach-E to other customers, critical as a new generation of battery electric customers make new brand choices.

我們的全電動 Mustang Mach-E 深受客戶歡迎，不僅在美國，而且在世界各地，為福特品牌帶來了數量驚人的新客戶。超過 90% 的 Mach-E 車主表示，他們會向其他客戶推薦 Mach-E，這對於新一代電池電動客戶做出新的品牌選擇至關重要。

Our challenge now is to break production constraints and increase availability to meet this incredible demand both in North America and in Europe and also in China, the biggest EV market in the world where we are just starting production of Mach-E. We believe the global demand just for Mustang Mach-E could approach about 200,000 vehicles a year.

我們現在面臨的挑戰是打破生產限制並提高可用性，以滿足北美和歐洲以及中國這一令人難以置信的需求，中國是世界上最大的電動汽車市場，我們剛剛開始生產 Mach-E。我們認為，僅 Mustang Mach-E 的全球需求每年就可能接近 200,000 輛。

We've created new organization, Ford Pro, to change and power the future work with compelling commercial vehicles, distribution and services, while growing revenues to Ford. In the few weeks, we will start production of the new E-Transit, an electric version of the world's best-selling commercial van.

我們創建了新的組織 Ford Pro，通過引人注目的商用車、分銷和服務來改變和推動未來的工作，同時增加福特的收入。幾週後，我們將開始生產新的 E-Transit，這是世界上最暢銷的商用貨車的電動版。

And in the third quarter alone, FORDLiive, Europe's new connected uptime center, which I wish you could all see for our commercial customers, helps customers in the U.K. secure additional uptime, preventing about $8 million of lost revenue and associated costs for our valuable customers.

僅在第三季度，我希望你們都能為我們的商業客戶看到的歐洲新的聯網正常運行時間中心 FORDLiive 幫助英國客戶確保額外的正常運行時間，為我們的寶貴客戶避免了約 800 萬美元的收入損失和相關成本.

We're reinventing icons like Bronco and creating new ones like Maverick. In fact, the all-new Maverick, 42 miles per gallon, I might add, is the first standard hybrid pickup in the United States. It's also America's most fuel-efficient hybrid pickup. This is the strongest, most compelling lineup I've ever seen from any mass market brand in my career.

我們正在重塑像 Bronco 這樣的偶像，並創造像 Maverick 這樣的新偶像。事實上，我可能會補充說，每加侖 42 英里的全新 Maverick 是美國第一款標準混合動力皮卡。它也是美國最省油的混合動力皮卡。這是我職業生涯中從任何大眾市場品牌中見過的最強大、最引人注目的陣容。

And we are creating a spring-loaded future as we emerge from the chip shortages and COVID constraints, and we continue to make important strides in the technology and go-to-market strategy for autonomous vehicles.

隨著我們擺脫芯片短缺和新冠疫情的限制，我們正在創造一個充滿活力的未來，我們將繼續在自動駕駛汽車的技術和上市戰略方面取得重要進展。

In the second quarter, we told you about a new partnership with Argo AI and Lyft. And in the third quarter, we announced a new partnership with Argo AI and Walmart. This is Walmart's first-ever multicity autonomous delivery service, and it will be anchored in cities where we already have operations, not the easiest miles in one city, but multiple cities and hard miles. In addition to making real progress on autonomy vehicles, operating domains, SDS, we fully support Argo AI's aspiration to access public capital.

在第二季度，我們向您介紹了與 Argo AI 和 Lyft 的新合作夥伴關係。第三季度，我們宣布與 Argo AI 和沃爾瑪建立新的合作夥伴關係。這是沃爾瑪有史以來第一個多城市自動送貨服務，它將錨定在我們已經開展業務的城市，不是一個城市最簡單的里程，而是多個城市和艱難的里程。除了在自動駕駛汽車、運營領域、SDS 方面取得實際進展外，我們完全支持 Argo AI 獲得公共資本的願望。

To build this future and generate the margins and cash flow we need to fund Ford+, we had to turn around our automotive operations and improve our competitiveness. Our results in the third quarter show we are making significant progress. In fact, company-wide, we achieved an 8.4% EBIT margin, including 10.1% in North America. Those margins, I'll remind you, are in line with our targets for 2023.

為了建立這個未來並產生我們為福特+提供資金所需的利潤和現金流，我們必須扭轉我們的汽車業務並提高我們的競爭力。我們在第三季度的業績表明我們正在取得重大進展。事實上，在整個公司範圍內，我們實現了 8.4% 的息稅前利潤率，其中北美為 10.1%。我會提醒你，這些利潤符合我們 2023 年的目標。

More importantly, our operations outside of North America are likely to post their best performance in 4 years. Please note the performance in South America, largely driven by our success of our global redesign. We've been able to achieve this while thoughtfully managing our supply chain for short-term sustainable improvements, including semiconductors, and prioritizing high demand and high-profit vehicles.

更重要的是，我們在北美以外的業務很可能會在 4 年內創下最佳業績。請注意在南美的表現，很大程度上是由我們在全球重新設計的成功推動的。我們已經能夠實現這一目標，同時深思熟慮地管理我們的供應鏈以實現包括半導體在內的短期可持續改進，並優先考慮高需求和高利潤的車輛。

Now before I turn it over to John, a few thoughts. I believe we have the right plan to drive growth and unlock unprecedented value. You are already seeing a favorable change in the slope of our earnings and cash flow. There is more to come.

現在，在我把它交給約翰之前，有一些想法。我相信我們有正確的計劃來推動增長並釋放前所未有的價值。您已經看到我們的收益和現金流的斜率發生了有利的變化。還有更多的事情要做。

Given the strength of our business this year, we are increasing our full year adjusted EBIT guidance to between $10.5 billion and $11.5 billion. As we plan in earnest for next year, we're excited and energized about the opportunity in front of us and clear that we have so much more work to do to deliver on Ford's potential.

鑑於我們今年的業務實力，我們將全年調整後的息稅前利潤指引提高到 105 億美元至 115 億美元之間。在我們認真計劃明年的過程中，我們對擺在我們面前的機會感到興奮和充滿活力，並且很清楚我們還有很多工作要做才能發揮福特的潛力。

The word I would leave you with is focus. The competitive environment has never been more interesting and tough, and we intend to live up to our promise to compete like a challenger, focusing on our top priorities to unlock Ford+ growth with customers at the very center of everything we do.

我要留給你的詞是專注。競爭環境從未像現在這樣有趣和艱難，我們打算兌現我們的承諾，像挑戰者一樣競爭，專注於我們的首要任務，以客戶為中心，以我們所做的一切為中心來解鎖福特+的增長。

Now I'll turn it over to John, who will take you through our results for the quarter, our outlook for the full year, our capital allocation priorities and our expectations heading into next year. John?

現在我將把它交給約翰，他將帶你了解我們本季度的業績、我們對全年的展望、我們的資本配置優先事項以及我們對明年的預期。約翰？

Thank you, Jim. Now in the face of continued industry-wide semiconductor constraints, we stayed focused on our plan, strengthening our portfolio and investing in opportunities fundamental to growth and value creation. We delivered a solid quarter with $3 billion in adjusted company EBIT and a margin of 8.4%.

謝謝你，吉姆。現在，面對全行業持續的半導體限制，我們繼續專注於我們的計劃，加強我們的投資組合，並投資於對增長和價值創造至關重要的機會。我們實現了一個穩健的季度，調整後的公司息稅前利潤為 30 億美元，利潤率為 8.4%。

Free cash flow of $7.7 billion was, as we expected, up sharply on a sequential basis driven by the positive working capital effects from higher wholesale and EBIT. We ended the quarter with strong cash and liquidity at over $31 billion and $47 billion, respectively.

正如我們預期的那樣，77 億美元的自由現金流在批發和息稅前利潤上升帶來的積極營運資本效應的推動下環比大幅增長。我們以強勁的現金和流動性結束本季度，分別超過 310 億美元和 470 億美元。

Now across our Automotive business, our playbook remained consistent as we optimize production for customer orders, new launches and our most profitable vehicles. And as expected, on a sequential basis, our wholesales improved dramatically as chip supply for Ford improved. We also remain disciplined with incentive spending and mix management, which, on a year-over-year basis, more than offset chip-related declines in volume.

現在，在我們的汽車業務中，我們的劇本保持一致，因為我們針對客戶訂單、新發布和我們最賺錢的車輛優化生產。正如預期的那樣，隨著福特芯片供應的改善，我們的批發量連續大幅改善。我們還在激勵性支出和混合管理方面保持紀律，這與去年同期相比，足以抵消與芯片相關的銷量下降。

Ford Credit delivered another solid quarter with $1.1 billion in EBT as auction values continue to remain strong and credit losses continue at near-record lows. For the fourth quarter, we're assuming a sequential increase in wholesale. We also expect continued healthy mix and net pricing and solid results from Ford Credit, although not as strong as the third quarter. Headwinds include inflationary impacts on commodities and freight, and we also expect planned sequential increases in our Ford+ modernization investments, including customer experience and IT.

由於拍賣價值繼續保持強勁，信貸損失繼續接近歷史低點，福特信貸實現了又一個穩健的季度，EBT 達到 11 億美元。對於第四季度，我們假設批發量環比增長。我們還預計福特信貸將繼續保持健康的組合和淨定價以及穩健的業績，儘管不如第三季度強勁。不利因素包括對商品和貨運的通脹影響，我們還預計我們的福特+現代化投資計劃連續增加，包括客戶體驗和 IT。

So let me share with you some highlights from the quarter before I turn to guidance, capital allocation and our preliminary view of 2022. With improved chip supply, North America wholesales increased sequentially by 67% as the team prioritized launches, customer orders and high-margin units while reducing the number of vehicles built but waiting for chips. Demand remains strong for our exciting vehicles. The order bank we are building paid off in the third quarter, representing 28% of our retail sales in the third quarter and reaching a high of 31% in September. And our overall customer orders increased over 50% from the second quarter to more than 100,000 orders, excluding Bronco. With a 10.1% EBIT margin in the quarter, North America is now at a 9% margin year-to-date, just 100 basis points shy of our 2023 target of 10%.

因此，在我轉向指導、資本分配和我們對 2022 年的初步看法之前，讓我與您分享本季度的一些亮點。隨著芯片供應的改善，隨著團隊優先考慮發布、客戶訂單和高-邊際單位在減少造車數量的同時卻在等待籌碼。對我們令人興奮的車輛的需求仍然強勁。我們正在建立的訂單庫在第三季度得到了回報，占我們第三季度零售額的 28%，並在 9 月份達到了 31% 的高位。我們的整體客戶訂單比第二季度增長了 50% 以上，超過 100,000 份訂單，不包括 Bronco。本季度息稅前利潤率為 10.1%，北美目前的利潤率為 9%，僅比我們 2023 年 10% 的目標低 100 個基點。

South America marked its eighth consecutive quarter of year-over-year improvement in EBIT, and the business run rate is now approaching breakeven. The region also launched its new commercial vehicle organization with the introduction of the new Transit, which is manufactured in Uruguay. This Transit is the first light commercial van to market in Brazil that includes connectivity as a standard feature.

南美洲的息稅前利潤連續第八個季度同比增長，業務運行率目前接近盈虧平衡。該地區還推出了新的商用車組織，推出了在烏拉圭製造的新 Transit。這輛 Transit 是在巴西上市的第一款輕型商用貨車，將連接作為標準功能。

In Europe, the underlying trajectory of our business continues to strengthen, though the adverse impact from chips has masked this improvement. In the third quarter, the business lost about 50,000 units, which would have had a substantial favorable impact on EBIT. Our leadership as the #1 commercial vehicle brand continued in the quarter, along with an extremely robust order bank.

在歐洲，我們業務的基本軌跡繼續加強，儘管芯片的不利影響掩蓋了這種改善。第三季度，該業務損失了約 50,000 台，這將對 EBIT 產生重大的有利影響。我們作為排名第一的商用車品牌的領導地位在本季度繼續保持，同時擁有極其強大的訂單庫。

In China, Lincoln continues to perform well, extending its success in the most profitable segment luxury. With retail sales up 24% year-over-year, in fact, Lincoln has doubled its share of the China luxury market over the past 18 months. Our newly created BEV organization to open its first 13 direct-to-consumer Ford Select city stores, with a total of 25 expected to open by year-end.

在中國，林肯繼續表現出色，繼續在利潤最高的奢侈品領域取得成功。事實上，隨著零售額同比增長 24%，林肯在過去 18 個月裡在中國奢侈品市場的份額翻了一番。我們新成立的 BEV 組織將開設首批 13 家直接面向消費者的福特精選城市商店，預計到年底將開設 25 家。

In IMG, our leadership team in India made the difficult decision to end manufacturing following accumulated operating losses of more than $2 billion over the past 10 years. Going forward, we will focus on importing iconic vehicles, including EVs. And overall, IMG had a solid quarter, capitalizing on our strengths, including Ranger.

在 IMG，我們在印度的領導團隊在過去 10 年累計運營虧損超過 20 億美元後，做出了終止製造的艱難決定。展望未來，我們將專注於進口標誌性車輛，包括電動汽車。總體而言，IMG 有一個穩健的季度，利用我們的優勢，包括 Ranger。

Now as Jim highlighted, the underlying strength of our business supports increasing our adjusted EBIT guidance for 2021 to between $10.5 billion and $11.5 billion, and that's despite a lower-than-anticipated improvement in chip availability in the second half of the year. Consistent with our adjusted EBIT guidance through this year, our updated guidance for 2021 includes the $900 million noncash gain on our investment in Rivian in our first quarter adjusted results.

現在正如 Jim 所強調的那樣，我們業務的潛在優勢支持將我們調整後的 2021 年息稅前利潤指引提高到 105 億美元至 115 億美元之間，儘管下半年芯片可用性的改善低於預期。與我們今年調整後的息稅前利潤指引一致，我們對 2021 年的更新指引包括我們在第一季度調整後業績中對 Rivian 的投資的 9 億美元非現金收益。

So let me spend a minute on Rivian. Now in the event that Rivian completes its IPO, we will record any gain on our investment in any subsequent adjustments as special items. Accordingly, we will recast the $900 million noncash gain from adjusted EBIT in the first quarter to a special item. If Rivian completes their IPO in the fourth quarter, we will make this change when we report our fourth quarter earnings on February 3, 2022.

因此，讓我花一分鐘時間了解 Rivian。現在，如果 Rivian 完成首次公開募股，我們會將我們在任何後續調整中的投資收益記錄為特殊項目。因此，我們將把第一季度調整後息稅前利潤的 9 億美元非現金收益重新計算為一個特殊項目。如果 Rivian 在第四季度完成 IPO，我們將在 2022 年 2 月 3 日報告第四季度收益時做出這一改變。

Our guidance for 2021 adjusted free cash flow is unchanged at $4 billion to $5 billion, reflecting the higher EBIT, but less favorable improvement in working capital and timing difference -- timing differences. Now this is due to lower-than-anticipated volumes than previously assumed in the back half of the quarter, and that's as a result of chip constraints. We do expect free cash flow to increase with higher production and the associated improvement in supplier payables and other timing differences.

我們對 2021 年調整後自由現金流的指導保持在 40 億美元至 50 億美元之間，這反映了較高的息稅前利潤，但營運資本和時間差異（時間差異）的改善不太有利。現在這是由於本季度後半段的銷量低於預期，這是由於芯片限制所致。我們確實預計自由現金流會隨著產量的增加以及供應商應付賬款和其他時間差異的相關改善而增加。

So now let me turn to capital allocation, which again is the foundation of our value creation framework. Our capital allocation discipline is driving a strong core business and balance sheet that provides the flexibility to invest in new growth opportunities as we deliver our Ford+ plan. Ultimately, it ensures we return value to our shareholders, both in the form of a higher share price and dividends.

所以現在讓我談談資本配置，這又是我們價值創造框架的基礎。我們的資本分配紀律正在推動強大的核心業務和資產負債表，從而在我們交付福特+計劃時為投資新的增長機會提供靈活性。最終，它確保我們以更高的股價和股息的形式向股東回報價值。

Today, we announced the reinstatement of our dividend. Our Board has approved restarting a regular quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share in the fourth quarter of 2021. Importantly, the dividend reflects our confidence in the improving run rate of the business and our ability to fund all of our calls on capital, including the growing investment in electrification and the trajectory of our Ford+ plan. The dividend was also sized to ensure we maintain appropriate optionality to manage continued uncertainties in the external environment.

今天，我們宣布恢復派息。我們的董事會已批准在 2021 年第四季度重新開始定期派發每股 0.10 美元的季度股息。重要的是，股息反映了我們對提高業務運行率的信心以及我們為所有資本呼籲提供資金的能力，包括不斷增長的電氣化投資和我們的福特+計劃的軌跡。股息的大小還確保我們保持適當的選擇權，以管理外部環境中持續的不確定性。

To give you a better sense of our calls on capital between 2020 and 2025, we expect total capital expenditures of about $40 billion to $45 billion or a run rate of roughly $7 billion per year. Now over the same time, we expect to invest over $30 billion in BEVs. And of the investment in BEVs, about 50% is CapEx, 25% is expense and 25% is direct investments. And these numbers, they'll be dynamic, and we are confident we have ample financial flexibility to increase our investment, even if BEV adoption further accelerates.

為了讓您更好地了解我們在 2020 年至 2025 年之間的資本需求，我們預計總資本支出約為 400 億美元至 450 億美元，或每年約 70 億美元的運行率。現在，在同一時間，我們預計將在 BEV 上投資超過 300 億美元。在 BEV 的投資中，大約 50% 是資本支出，25% 是費用，25% 是直接投資。這些數字將是動態的，我們相信我們有足夠的財務靈活性來增加我們的投資，即使 BEV 的採用進一步加速。

Now let me share with you our early thinking about 2022, a year, which, like this one, is likely to experience some industry crosswinds that could drive a range of outcomes. Now we typically don't talk about the upcoming year this soon, and we're not yet prepared to give financial guidance, but we do want to share how we're thinking about next year, given the dynamic operating environment.

現在讓我與您分享我們對 2022 年的早期想法，這一年就像今年一樣，可能會經歷一些可能帶來一系列結果的行業逆風。現在，我們通常不會很快談論即將到來的一年，我們還沒有準備好提供財務指導，但我們確實想分享我們對明年的想法，考慮到動態的運營環境。

Ford's underlying strengths give me great confidence we can build on our results in 2021. First, our portfolio of products and services is exceptional, and we have a significant amount of new product coming to market spanning our iconic high-volume nameplates.

福特的潛在優勢讓我充滿信心，我們可以在 2021 年的業績基礎上再接再厲。首先，我們的產品和服務組合非常出色，我們有大量新產品進入市場，跨越我們標誌性的大批量銘牌。

Second, our industrial base gives us significant optionality as the adoption of electric vehicles accelerates.

其次，隨著電動汽車的加速普及，我們的工業基礎給了我們很大的選擇餘地。

Third, driven by the chip shortage to roughly $4 million in wholesales we are likely to deliver this year fall significantly below our capacity. And based on our current assessment, we believe our wholesales could be up about 10% in 2022, but that number is very dynamic and changes almost weekly.

第三，由於芯片短缺，我們今年可能交付的批發價約為 400 萬美元，遠遠低於我們的產能。根據我們目前的評估，我們認為 2022 年我們的批發量可能會增長 10% 左右，但這個數字非常動態，幾乎每週都在變化。

And fourth, the effects of our global redesign, which is largely completed, are now evident and substantial. We have drastically de-risked and rationalized our global footprint and product lineup, vastly improving our earnings and cash generation power in the process.

第四，我們已基本完成的全球重新設計的影響現在是明顯的和可觀的。我們已大幅降低風險並使我們的全球足跡和產品陣容合理化，在此過程中極大地提高了我們的收益和現金產生能力。

Now for headwinds next year, it's difficult to predict the interplay between semiconductor-related constraints, volume and pricing, and this will continue to remain dynamic. For 2021, we expect commodities to be up $3 billion to $3.5 billion, and they could be up another $1.5 billion in 2022, largely driven by steel and aluminum similar to this year. There will also likely be other inflationary costs, but it's too early to size that right now.

現在對於明年的逆風，很難預測與半導體相關的限制、數量和定價之間的相互作用，而且這種相互作用將繼續保持動態。到 2021 年，我們預計大宗商品價格將上漲 30 億美元至 35 億美元，到 2022 年可能會再上漲 15 億美元，主要由與今年類似的鋼鐵和鋁推動。也可能會有其他通脹成本，但現在確定這個規模還為時過早。

Ford Credit is likely to be lower as strong auction values will be moderated by a smaller inventory of vehicles and lower lease and return rates.

福特信貸可能會更低，因為強勁的拍賣價值將因車輛庫存減少以及租賃和退貨率降低而緩和。

And lastly, we're obviously going to continue to invest in our Ford+ plan for growth and value creation, and this includes in customer-facing technology, connectivity, our always on relationships with customers and electrification. And of course, we believe the long-term payback from those investments will be substantial.

最後，我們顯然將繼續投資於我們的 Ford+ 增長和價值創造計劃，這包括面向客戶的技術、連接性、我們始終與客戶的關係和電氣化。當然，我們相信這些投資的長期回報將是可觀的。

Now that wraps up our prepared remarks. And if you perceive that the upfront portion of these calls is becoming more efficient, well, you're right. And that's a function of us being very specific with you and our team about what's truly important and our confidence in executing effectively against those things and reporting, accordingly. We'll use the balance of the time to hear and address what's on your minds. Thank you.

現在結束我們準備好的評論。如果您認為這些電話的前期部分變得更有效率，那麼您是對的。這是我們與您和我們的團隊非常具體地了解真正重要的事情以及我們對有效執行這些事情和報告的信心的一個功能。我們將利用剩餘的時間來傾聽和解決您的想法。謝謝你。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 John Murphy。

It's going to be tough to limit to one question, but I will. As you think about the 10% increase you're talking about in 2022 wholesales, and if we could focus on North America and just assume you're going to do about 2 million units this year and '21, give or take, we're only talking about 200,000 units of increase next year. There's an assumption that price and mix will deteriorate, and incremental units are produced as the semi shortage is relieved. But given that, that's still going to be a relatively low -- a very low level of production, do you believe that the price and mix are really going to actually come under pressure next year? And aren't we really going to stay in a very tight environment that you're selling through and not even building inventory, if that's true, which means that price and mix might stay very strong next year, and they'll still get the benefit?

將很難限制在一個問題上，但我會的。當您考慮到您所說的 2022 年批發量增長 10% 時，如果我們可以專注於北美並假設您今年將做大約 200 萬件，“21，給予或接受，我們”只是說明年增加200,000個單位。假設價格和組合將惡化，隨著半短缺的緩解，將生產增量單位。但鑑於此，這仍將是一個相對較低的產量——非常低的產量，你認為明年價格和產品組合真的會受到壓力嗎？如果這是真的，我們不是真的要保持在一個非常緊張的環境中，你正在通過銷售甚至不建立庫存，這意味著明年價格和組合可能會保持非常強勁，他們仍然會得到益處？

Thanks, John. John here. You're right, it's going to remain dynamic. And that's what the interplay is going to be. Volume increases for the industry if they're higher, we'll probably see more pressure on price. If they remain as they are today, we see a moderate increase. I think you're going to continue to see strong pricing and mix continue through next year. So that's where we have to stay disciplined, and we have to stay very focused on managing that well so that we can have, as you said, the play through next year relative to what happens from an overall volume standpoint, and we're focused on that. So I agree with you. That's going to be one of the key dynamic elements for next year.

謝謝，約翰。約翰在這裡。你是對的，它將保持動態。這就是相互作用的結果。如果該行業的成交量更高，我們可能會看到更大的價格壓力。如果它們保持今天的狀態，我們會看到適度的增長。我認為你將繼續看到強勁的定價和混合持續到明年。所以這就是我們必須保持紀律的地方，我們必須非常專注於管理好，這樣我們就可以像你所說的那樣，相對於從整體數量的角度來看，明年的比賽，我們專注於在那。所以我同意你的看法。這將成為明年的關鍵動態元素之一。

And just to follow up on that. I think right now, based on awards, you have about 213,000 units in dealer inventory. Pre-COVID, travel rate was about 650,000 units. As you think about ultimately getting into a time where you can rebuild or restock that inventory, where do you think that runs? And how much opportunity is there to try to maintain some of this mix and price discipline to offset any cost inflation and then also invest in the future?

只是為了跟進。我認為現在，根據獎勵，您在經銷商庫存中大約有 213,000 台。在 COVID 之前，旅行率約為 650,000 個單位。當你考慮最終進入一個可以重建或補充庫存的時代時，你認為它會在哪裡運行？有多少機會嘗試維持這種組合和價格紀律，以抵消任何成本膨脹，然後投資於未來？

Yes. So if you look at where we ended in September, we ended at about 20 days supply in the U.S., and we're watching it very closely from a day supply standpoint. And as we talked about last quarter, our historical day supply was somewhere around 75 days. We're not going back there. And as Jim said, we're going to be very disciplined, and we expect to be in the 50-day supply when we're fully at full capacity, and we're running and producing everything that we can. So that's going to be the key.

是的。因此，如果您查看我們在 9 月份結束的位置，我們會在美國以大約 20 天的供應量結束，並且從日供應量的角度來看，我們正在密切關注它。正如我們在上個季度談到的那樣，我們的歷史日供應量約為 75 天。我們不會回到那裡。正如吉姆所說，我們將非常自律，當我們完全滿負荷生產時，我們預計將有 50 天的供應量，並且我們正在運行和生產我們所能做的一切。所以這將是關鍵。

The other thing I would say, John, is that the move, as we talked about in our remarks, to having more of our sales come through orders, online orders in the order bank, that's really important for us to manage our day supply so that it's less of a ground stock push through and its customer demand pull-through based on the orders. And we had over 100,000 orders at the end of the quarter, and that's grown since then in our order bank. And that played well for us in the third quarter.

約翰，我要說的另一件事是，正如我們在講話中談到的那樣，我們的更多銷售來自訂單，訂單庫中的在線訂單，這對我們管理我們的日常供應非常重要，所以它不像地面庫存推送和基於訂單的客戶需求拉動。在本季度末，我們有超過 100,000 份訂單，從那時起，我們的訂單庫中的訂單量就在增長。這對我們來說在第三節發揮得很好。

139,454 orders...

139,454 個訂單...

As of...

作為...

As of today.

截至今日。

To be exact. It sounds like you're on that. And maybe if I could sneak one in just on capital allocation real quick on the dividend. I mean why now? And I'll hop back in the queue.

準確地說。聽起來你正在這樣做。也許如果我能在股息上真正快速地在資本配置上偷偷摸摸。我的意思是為什麼現在？我會跳回隊列中。

Yes. It's the underlying strength of the business, John. And we're not capital constrained. We're able to fund our initiatives for growth. We know that there are going to be other opportunities that surface. We're confident that we can fund those, and we're focused on total shareholder returns, not only stock appreciation, but also the dividend. And so given the strength of the business, the Board elected that we would restart the dividend this quarter.

是的。這是企業的潛在力量，約翰。而且我們沒有資金限制。我們能夠為我們的增長計劃提供資金。我們知道還會有其他機會浮出水面。我們有信心為這些提供資金，我們專注於股東總回報，不僅是股票升值，還有股息。因此，鑑於業務的實力，董事會選擇我們將在本季度重新開始派息。

Your next question comes from the line of Dan Levy with Credit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Dan Levy。

I'd first just like to ask a question on the shape of recovery in volumes. A, is this magnesium shortage going to cause any sort of near-term supply disruption for you? I mean we heard some draconian comments that it could just outright stop European production, and just maybe you can give us a sense broadly of how you anticipate the shape of recovery in terms of volumes. At what point do we get -- or is your baseline expectation that the chip shortage is fully mitigated, and you can be back at full run rate production?

我首先想問一個關於成交量復甦形狀的問題。答，這種鎂短缺是否會在短期內對您造成任何形式的供應中斷？我的意思是我們聽到了一些嚴厲的評論，說它可能會徹底停止歐洲的生產，也許你可以讓我們大致了解你如何預期產量方面的複蘇形式。我們在什麼時候得到 - 或者您的基線期望是完全緩解芯片短缺，並且您可以恢復全速生產？

Yes. So from the magnesium standpoint, when we look at that, we are seeing price pressure on aluminum broadly. We saw that all year, and we probably see a little bit more price pressure due to the magnesium issue. But our sheet metal suppliers, our sheet aluminum suppliers don't purchase magnesium from China for North American production. So we don't see that having any significant impact or any impact on us.

是的。因此，從鎂的角度來看，當我們看到這一點時，我們普遍看到鋁的價格壓力。我們全年都看到了這一點，由於鎂問題，我們可能會看到更多的價格壓力。但是我們的鈑金供應商，我們的鋁板供應商不會從中國購買鎂用於北美生產。因此，我們認為這不會對我們產生任何重大影響或任何影響。

We do see the chip issue continuing to run through '22. As we said, it's very dynamic. Right now, you ask us what we think the sequential increase in supply will be year-over-year, we think we'll have about 10% more, but that's changing weekly. And we're doing everything we can to get our hands on as many chips as we can. But we do see that running through 2022. It could extend into 2023, although we do anticipate the scope and severity of that to reduce as we move through '22 into '23.

我們確實看到芯片問題持續到 22 年。正如我們所說，它非常動態。現在，您問我們，我們認為供應的連續增長將同比增長多少，我們認為我們將增加約 10%，但每週都在變化。我們正在盡我們所能獲得盡可能多的籌碼。但我們確實看到這種情況會持續到 2022 年。它可能會延續到 2023 年，儘管我們確實預計隨著我們從 22 年進入 23 年，這種情況的範圍和嚴重性會減少。

Great. Second question, I'd like to zoom out, it's a bit more strategic. I think if we just look at the pace of progress at Ford, just both financially and in terms of EV, AV, halting digital, and just what we're seeing today is it's far greater than what you saw 12 or 18 months ago, which is actually pretty impressive given the large organization just takes time to really affect change. So I just want to -- I'm trying to understand how much of what we're seeing today was something that was always there and just only starting to come to the surface now, you're sort of getting the fruits of prior initiatives? Or has something fundamentally changed in the past 12, 18 months? What does this just tell us about the pace of change at Ford with the next comparison? Maybe just to be a bit more specific because I know you can take that in a number of ways. Maybe you can answer that specifically to what we're seeing on product and planning on the business transition to EV.

偉大的。第二個問題，我想縮小一點，它更具戰略意義。我認為，如果我們只看福特的進步速度，無論是在財務上，還是在電動汽車、自動駕駛汽車、停止數字化方面，我們今天看到的是遠遠超過你在 12 或 18 個月前看到的，鑑於大型組織只需要時間來真正影響變革，這實際上令人印象深刻。所以我只是想 - 我試圖了解我們今天看到的東西有多少是一直存在的，現在才剛剛開始浮出水面，你有點得到先前倡議的成果?或者在過去的 12、18 個月裡發生了根本性的變化？與下一次比較相比，這只是告訴我們福特的變化速度是什麼？也許只是為了更具體一點，因為我知道你可以通過多種方式來理解這一點。也許您可以具體回答我們在產品方面看到的情況以及向 EV 業務過渡的計劃。

Thank you for your question. A lot of the product we've been working on for several years. We made the tough choices. I would say the answer is, we have a plan. It's not an advertising or PR taglines. It's our plan. Everyone in the company knows what we have to do. We are out of time and we have focus. We need to get an 8% margin like we did this quarter as a company regularly because we have to fund a high-growth BEV and digital business.

謝謝你的問題。我們多年來一直在開發的許多產品。我們做出了艱難的選擇。我會說答案是，我們有一個計劃。這不是廣告或公關標語。這是我們的計劃。公司裡的每個人都知道我們必須做什麼。我們沒有時間了，我們有重點。作為一家公司，我們需要像本季度那樣定期獲得 8% 的利潤率，因為我們必須為高增長的 BEV 和數字業務提供資金。

It's not to make more money. Yes, it is that, but it's motivated in the mission of transforming Ford through these digital products. So running the ICE business for cash, getting serious about our cost, our quality, our launches, our 8% return, it's all a mission, and the team knows the plan. And I think the culture is starting to change, to be quicker, more accountability, less bureaucracy. And that mission permeates through the company.

不是為了賺更多的錢。是的，就是這樣，但它的動機是通過這些數字產品改變福特的使命。因此，以現金經營 ICE 業務，認真對待我們的成本、質量、發布、8% 的回報，這都是一項使命，團隊知道這個計劃。而且我認為文化開始發生變化，變得更快、更有責任感、更少官僚主義。這一使命貫穿於整個公司。

I'm probably the worst person to ask whether something has changed because it sure has changed for me and my leadership team. But to me, the proof is in the pudding, like our third quarter. And whether we've really changed as a company will be proven out in our numbers over time like they have the last year.

我可能是問某件事是否發生變化的最糟糕的人，因為它對我和我的領導團隊來說確實發生了變化。但對我來說，證據就在布丁中，就像我們的第三季度一樣。我們作為一家公司是否真的發生了變化，隨著時間的推移，我們的數字將得到證明，就像去年一樣。

And just to be more specific on the product front because I think we're seeing a much faster pace of product, is the time of development products like -- how much have you accelerated that? Meaning, typically, in the past, we hear of 3.5 to 4 years of drawing board to product in showroom. Is there a new normal for what that is?

只是在產品方面更具體，因為我認為我們看到產品的速度要快得多，開發產品的時間就像 - 你加速了多少？這意味著，通常，在過去，我們聽說過 3.5 到 4 年的繪圖板到陳列室中的產品。那有什麼新常態嗎？

If we make up our mind and we come together as a team like we did on Maverick, it could be just 2 years. We did -- we knocked 20 months off the Maverick development, but it required the leadership team to not have the handwringing on the studio for 6 months like we normally did. I think that's a new proof point.

如果我們下定決心，像在 Maverick 那樣作為一個團隊團結起來，可能只有 2 年。我們做到了——我們將 Maverick 的開發推遲了 20 個月，但它要求領導團隊在 6 個月內不能像往常那樣在工作室裡絞盡腦汁。我認為這是一個新的證明點。

But the question I ask myself is a little different. When we see a technology change like this -- like BEV, it's not just the speed of your product creation. It's can you be flexible and agile in your industrial system like in manufacturing. We have 3 complete hits on our hands, a Mach-E with 200,000 units of demand. That's -- we have the Lightning with over 160,000 orders, and the E-Transit is completely sold out.

但我問自己的問題有點不同。當我們看到這樣的技術變化時——比如 BEV，不僅僅是產品創建的速度。您能否在工業系統（如製造業）中保持靈活和敏捷。我們手頭有 3 個完整的命中，一個有 200,000 個需求單位的 Mach-E。那就是——我們有超過 160,000 份訂單的 Lightning，而 E-Transit 已完全售罄。

So how I like to think about it, it's not just the product creation speeding up. It's whole company. And we have to do our job to break constraints now so that we can deliver hundreds of thousands of battery electrics next year. That, to me, is the proof of our change, not just how fast the product creation process works.

所以我喜歡怎麼想，這不僅僅是產品創造的加速。是整個公司。我們現在必須做我們的工作來打破限制，以便明年我們可以提供數十萬個電池電力。對我來說，這就是我們改變的證明，而不僅僅是產品創建過程的運行速度。

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

I thought to ask a few on the order bank, just given the commentary that it grew 50% sequentially in 3Q, excluding the Bronco. So can you talk about the benefits of the order bank? How it helps to optimize your operations? And what kind of pricing or other trends you might be seeing with regard to the order bank? And then how much of the increase in orders do you think may stem from the currently very strong new product cadence or from the currently low inventory environment? And what avenues are there available to drive orders as industry conditions eventually normalize?

我想問問訂單銀行的一些人，剛剛給出的評論是它在第三季度環比增長了 50%，不包括 Bronco。那麼你能談談訂單銀行的好處嗎？它如何幫助優化您的運營？對於訂單銀行，您可能會看到什麼樣的定價或其他趨勢？那麼您認為訂單的增加有多少可能源於當前非常強勁的新產品節奏或當前的低庫存環境？隨著行業狀況最終正常化，有哪些途徑可以推動訂單？

Thank you so much for your question. I'll ask John to comment. From my view, the order bank model that we're going through in North America that we're in right now has benefits across the patch. We are an incredibly complicated company. And so having an order bank allows us to push simplification into the order, the customer-facing options, which we need to do, and it reduces cost and improves our quality. Number two, it eliminates the need for expensive conquest fixed marketing. Number three, it's incredibly helpful for industrial system.

非常感謝你的問題。我會請約翰發表評論。在我看來，我們現在在北美經歷的訂單銀行模式在整個補丁中都有好處。我們是一家非常複雜的公司。因此，擁有一個訂單銀行可以讓我們將訂單簡化，即我們需要做的面向客戶的選項，它可以降低成本並提高我們的質量。第二，它消除了昂貴的征服固定營銷的需要。第三，它對工業系統非常有幫助。

You cannot imagine, Ryan, how much money we waste by not -- by guessing what our launch mix is for a new product. When you have an order bank, especially for new models, you could capacitize the high series mix that are very profitable right in line with customer demand. So it's incredibly cost-effective, and it allows you to address the long-tail revenues that we have lost in the past because of our internal ground stock model.

Ryan，你無法想像我們浪費了多少錢——通過猜測我們的新產品發布組合是什麼。當您擁有訂單庫時，尤其是對於新車型，您可以根據客戶需求將利潤豐厚的高系列產品容量化。因此，它具有令人難以置信的成本效益，它使您能夠解決我們過去由於我們的內部地面庫存模型而失去的長尾收入。

And the last one is, it's lower cost. There's less parts hanging around. We can manage our industrial system and our manufacturing in a leaner way. The question really is, how we maintain it, as you said, as the market improves. And the way we're looking at that is not just having a day supply target in the past that we've managed but actually putting in the infrastructure to maintain or prefer a order-based system. That means we train our system to put in orders. We reward people for putting in orders. We dynamically price for customers so that they're incentivized to keep ordering versus buying off the lot. So it's going to be a journey. It's been a very rewarding one so far, and we're just beginning. This is the model we have to go through as most of our business or majority of our business goes battery electric and digital. It's the right loyalty model.

最後一個是，它的成本更低。周圍的零件少了。我們可以以更精簡的方式管理我們的工業系統和製造。真正的問題是，正如您所說，隨著市場的改善，我們如何維持它。我們看待這個問題的方式不僅僅是過去我們管理的每日供應目標，而是實際投入基礎設施來維護或更喜歡基於訂單的系統。這意味著我們訓練我們的系統來下訂單。我們獎勵下訂單的人。我們為客戶動態定價，以激勵他們繼續訂購而不是大量購買。所以這將是一個旅程。到目前為止，這是一個非常有益的項目，而我們才剛剛開始。這是我們必須經歷的模式，因為我們的大部分業務或我們的大部分業務都是電池電動和數字化。這是正確的忠誠度模型。

Okay. Great. And then just as a quick follow-up to that. It seems as which was discussed earlier that product development times are speeding up, maybe particularly with regard to EVs. The Lightning, for example, seem to come together very fast. Another trend seems to be that automakers are revealing their EVs for a longer period of time before the actual start of production, maybe because they're so eager to show them, consumers are so clamoring for them. Does that mean that you think that order banks and ordering in advance might be even more popular with electric vehicles? What are you seeing with regard to that?

好的。偉大的。然後作為快速跟進。正如前面所討論的那樣，產品開發時間正在加快，尤其是在電動汽車方面。例如，閃電似乎很快就聚集在一起了。另一個趨勢似乎是，汽車製造商在實際開始生產之前會更長時間地展示他們的電動汽車，這可能是因為他們非常渴望展示它們，消費者對它們如此叫囂。這是否意味著您認為訂單銀行和提前訂購可能更受電動汽車歡迎？你對此有何看法？

The move to a digital product means we have to go to a 100% loyalty model. So the reason why you're seeing us launch battery electrics early is very simple. It's our Super Bowl ad. Our new Super Bowl ad -- our new Detroit Motor Show is our reveal because this starts the clock on reservations, and you have to do it early enough, so your industrial system gets informed by the results of your reservation. That's the closed loop that has to happen. We need to open it early enough so that our industrial system can react to the orders, and we don't waste money and take advantage of long-tail revenue. And it's a more controlled environment than a broadcast media advertising on the Super Bowl.

轉向數字產品意味著我們必須採用 100% 的忠誠度模型。因此，您看到我們提早推出電池電子產品的原因非常簡單。這是我們的超級碗廣告。我們新的超級碗廣告——我們新的底特律車展是我們的展示，因為這開始了預訂的時間，而且您必須儘早完成，這樣您的工業系統才能從預訂結果中獲得信息。這就是必鬚髮生的閉環。我們需要儘早開放它，以便我們的工業系統能夠對訂單做出反應，並且我們不會浪費金錢並利用長尾收入。而且它是一個比超級碗上的廣播媒體廣告更受控制的環境。

Your next question comes from the line of Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

I have just 2 questions. So first, you've got a lot of growth that you're targeting in BEVs and digital businesses. So it's not surprising that we would see some structural cost inflation. What we're seeing right now is actually really benign. This $200 million in the quarter, considering what you've got going on. But maybe can you talk a little bit about how we should think about the feathering in of those additional structural costs, which presumably come in ahead of the revenue? So how should we think about that as we look out to the next year or 2?

我只有 2 個問題。因此，首先，您的目標是 BEV 和數字業務的大量增長。因此，我們會看到一些結構性成本膨脹也就不足為奇了。我們現在看到的實際上是良性的。考慮到你正在做的事情，這個季度的 2 億美元。但也許你能談談我們應該如何考慮這些額外的結構成本的羽化，這些額外的結構成本可能會在收入之前出現？那麼，當我們展望明年或 2 年時，我們應該如何考慮呢？

Yes, Rod. We'll start to see those come in as we get into '22, and then they'll feather in through '23 as we continue to ramp our investments in our plan, our priorities, not only in the products, the BEVs, but also as we're building out our customer-facing technologies, our connectivity, et cetera. So yes, you'll see that start to come in on a year-over-year basis next year, and it will continue in through '23.

是的，羅德。當我們進入 22 年時，我們將開始看到那些進來，然後隨著我們繼續加大對我們的計劃和優先事項的投資，不僅在產品、BEV 上，而且在 23在我們構建面向客戶的技術、連接性等方面也是如此。所以是的，你會看到明年開始出現同比增長，並將持續到 23 年。

Can you just give us any sort of brackets around what -- I mean you did mention that 25% of the EV spending will be expensed. But any sort of thoughts on the magnitude of what that headwind is?

你能否給我們任何括號 - 我的意思是你確實提到了 25% 的電動汽車支出將被支出。但是對逆風的大小有什麼想法嗎？

Not -- I'm not ready to do that today for '22 and going in through '23. We're completely targeted on getting to that 8% in 2023. So we'll manage it within that. But today, I'm not ready to talk in that level of detail about it.

不——我今天還沒準備好在 22 年和 23 年這樣做。我們的完全目標是在 2023 年達到 8%。所以我們將在此範圍內進行管理。但是今天，我還沒有準備好詳細討論它。

Okay. And I was a little surprised about the comment about just 10% volume growth for next year. It seems to me like the Renesas fire and Texas storms alone might have knocked 200,000 units of your production in Q2. And it wasn't too long ago that you guys were routinely doing over 700,000 units a quarter. So do you have any thoughts that you might be able to share about when would you be able to get back up to that kind of a level of production? And if so, when should we expect that to happen?

好的。我對關於明年銷量僅增長 10% 的評論感到有些驚訝。在我看來，僅瑞薩大火和德克薩斯風暴就可能在第二季度摧毀了您的 200,000 台產品。不久前，你們通常每季度生產超過 700,000 個單位。那麼你有什麼想法可以分享一下，你什麼時候才能恢復到那種生產水平？如果是這樣，我們應該期望什麼時候發生這種情況？

Right. So I think what you'll find is that, as you look through 2022, the first half, we'll have less supply than through the second half. And as I said earlier, we see this mitigating over time. It may extend into 2023. But I would say that we should be back up and running based on what we're seeing today, a run rate, the end of next year into '23. And then in 2023, we'd start to rebuild our inventories.

對。所以我認為你會發現，從 2022 年上半年來看，我們的供應將少於下半年。正如我之前所說，我們看到這種情況會隨著時間的推移而減輕。它可能會延續到 2023 年。但我想說，我們應該根據我們今天所看到的情況恢復運行，運行速度，明年年底到 23 年。然後在 2023 年，我們將開始重建庫存。

But it's dynamic, Rod, and it's hard to make a pinpoint call at this point in time. But we wanted to share with you what we're seeing is that, we're seeing about 10% for next year. And we see that the chip constraint is going to still hit us. It's going to still be a factor next year. So we have to keep managing as we are this year.

但它是動態的，羅德，目前很難做出準確的判斷。但我們想與您分享我們所看到的是，我們看到明年大約 10%。我們看到籌碼限制仍然會打擊我們。明年它仍將是一個因素。所以我們必須像今年一樣繼續管理。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Johnson with Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brian Johnson。

Two questions. First, a quick -- not quite housekeeping, but definitely, balance sheet question. As you restated the dividend at the level, just could you maybe talk us through the investment-grade rating implications and timeline to get there that you consider -- that you and the Board considered when setting that?

兩個問題。首先，一個快速的 - 不是很管家，但絕對是資產負債表問題。當您重申該級別的股息時，您能否與我們討論一下您考慮的投資級評級影響和時間表，以實現您和董事會在設定時考慮的因素？

So we're going to continue to work and focus on improving our business, right? Our target is to have an investment-grade balance sheet, but that's going to come by improving the business. And you're seeing the strength of that come through. And so that's what we're focused on. What the rating agencies decide to do with our rating, they'll manage that, and that's up to them. What we're laser focused on is improving the run rate of the business, improving our performance, improving our overall metrics. And eventually, the rating agencies and the ratings will take care of themselves.

所以我們將繼續努力並專注於改善我們的業務，對嗎？我們的目標是擁有投資級資產負債表，但這將通過改善業務來實現。你看到了它的力量。這就是我們所關注的。評級機構決定如何處理我們的評級，他們會管理，這取決於他們。我們專注於提高業務的運行率，提高我們的績效，提高我們的整體指標。最終，評級機構和評級會照顧好自己。

Okay. Second question. As you think about that 10% volume increase, rough guidance, a couple of things, one, where do you see fleet sales coming back as you kind of bring that up? And second, are you going to take a different attitude towards fleet sales than in sort of the past?

好的。第二個問題。當您考慮到 10% 的銷量增長、粗略的指導以及一些事情時，您認為車隊銷售在哪裡會隨著您提出這一點而回升？其次，您是否會對車隊銷售採取與過去不同的態度？

I remember Don Leclair saying, he had 2 factories making door assist. And rental car companies were about the only buyers for them. So -- but there's also -- to really rental cars, but maybe some of the government business that's not -- police is not quite the same.

我記得 Don Leclair 說過，他有 2 家工廠生產門輔助。租車公司是他們唯一的買家。所以 - 但也有 - 真正租車，但也許一些政府業務不是 - 警察並不完全相同。

And kind of related to that, as you kind of think about prioritizing production, are there models where you're more comfortable you'll get good price retention, and other models, and I'm going to pick on like the Escape maybe that have a lot of competition in their segment and as capacity comes back less likely to hold price, say, compared to a Bronco.

與此相關，當您考慮優先考慮生產時，是否有讓您更舒適的型號，您會獲得良好的價格保留率，以及其他型號，我會選擇像 Escape 這樣的型號與 Bronco 相比，他們的細分市場競爭激烈，而且隨著產能的恢復，保持價格的可能性較小。

So it's interesting because I remember those days when Don probably made that comment about rental fleets and that they were low margin, et cetera. I think what you're finding is business models are changing, and the fleet business is evolving, just like everything else in our industry. And we see that there could potentially be a positive fleet business where they could make good money. And so we're not going to shy away from that if we see that it's right for our brand, and we think it's right for the bottom line. And so we're going to continue to look at fleets differently. We're going to continue to think about vehicles as a service and what that potential holds for us as that business model changes, and we'll see where that takes us. But we're not going to go back to the times where we're putting in capacity, we're pumping out units, selling them at little to no margin for rental cars. That's not going to happen again. And -- go ahead. I'm sorry.

所以這很有趣，因為我記得唐可能對租賃車隊發表評論並且他們的利潤率很低等等。我認為你會發現商業模式正在發生變化，車隊業務也在不斷發展，就像我們行業中的其他一切一樣。我們看到，可能會有一個積極的車隊業務，他們可以從中賺到大錢。因此，如果我們看到它適合我們的品牌，我們不會迴避它，並且我們認為它適合底線。因此，我們將繼續以不同的方式看待機隊。我們將繼續將車輛視為一種服務，以及隨著商業模式的變化，這種潛力對我們有什麼影響，我們將看到它會把我們帶到哪裡。但是我們不會回到我們正在增加產能的時代，我們正在抽出單位，以幾乎沒有利潤的方式出售它們來出租汽車。這不會再發生了。並且——繼續。對不起。

That's okay. I was just going to say, our fleet business now, now that we've rationalized the company, our fleet business is very strategic for us. It's also very profitable. It certainly varies in Europe and North America and China. Different fleet segments have different profitability.

沒關係。我只是想說，我們現在的車隊業務，現在我們已經對公司進行了合理化，我們的車隊業務對我們來說非常具有戰略意義。這也是非常有利可圖的。它在歐洲、北美和中國肯定會有所不同。不同的車隊細分市場有不同的盈利能力。

The one thing I would ask you to think about is that most of the fleet that matters at Ford is commercial vehicles. And the most important commercial vehicles for us is small, medium-sized businesses, and those are very profitable business for us. For Transit for Super Duty. That's where Ford excels in the fleet business and its smaller fleets. It's not big fleet sales.

我要請您考慮的一件事是，福特最重要的車隊是商用車。對我們來說最重要的商用車是中小型企業，這些對我們來說是非常有利可圖的業務。為超級責任過境。這就是福特在車隊業務及其小型車隊方面的優勢所在。這不是大的車隊銷售。

So the texture of this is that we're revenue-managing the company very carefully. We know the margins by geography, even within the country, and we know by distribution channel. So this is a very thoughtful approach for us. But strategically, especially because of the Pro business and its profitability, we want to make sure we have -- we're reliable partner with fleet customers. They do business with companies that are reliable. They don't come in and out of the market. They do business with companies that have a full range of products, a full range of services. That's why Marion is investing in Ford Pro and why we're vertically integrating our services.

因此，我們對公司的收入管理非常謹慎。我們通過地理位置了解利潤，甚至在國內也是如此，我們通過分銷渠道了解。所以這對我們來說是一個非常周到的方法。但從戰略上講，特別是由於 Pro 業務及其盈利能力，我們希望確保我們擁有——我們是車隊客戶的可靠合作夥伴。他們與可靠的公司做生意。他們不會進出市場。他們與擁有全方位產品、全方位服務的公司開展業務。這就是 Marion 投資 Ford Pro 以及我們垂直整合服務的原因。

So I think we have a really good profitable fleet business around the world. We look at the margins very carefully, but it's strategically very important for the company to be a reliable partner.

所以我認為我們在全球擁有非常好的盈利車隊業務。我們非常仔細地查看利潤率，但對於公司而言，成為可靠的合作夥伴在戰略上非常重要。

Okay. And in terms of price retention and how that's going to vary across your product line?

好的。就價格保留而言，您的產品線將如何變化？

Well, John, I think you should answer that one in terms of how we revenue-manage in a constrained environment.

好吧，約翰，我認為您應該根據我們在受限環境中如何管理收入來回答這個問題。

Yes. So as you would expect, we're very conscientious about the dynamic of the supply and demand and the impact that, that has on the pricing. And we look at this on a daily basis, managing our incentives, looking at if we should be taking top line pricing given the inflationary pressures we're seeing. And as we talked about, we're not going to go back to the old habit of loading up the dealers with stock and then looking through the push-through of -- for sales.

是的。因此，正如您所料，我們對供需動態及其對定價的影響非常認真。我們每天都在關注這一點，管理我們的激勵措施，考慮到我們所看到的通脹壓力，我們是否應該採取頂線定價。正如我們所談到的，我們不會回到向經銷商裝載庫存然後查看銷售的舊習慣。

We're going to focus more on orders coming through online. Specific orders to customers being satisfied, understanding what their demands are, simplifying the system. And with all of that, we expect to retain quite a bit of the price. Now will it mitigate as we go through next year as supply and demand comes more in balance and into '23? Yes. But our job is going to be to manage that and retain as much pricing as we can and -- while providing customers good value for those products. So it's something that we look at very closely on a daily basis.

我們將更多地關注在線訂單。滿足客戶的特定訂單，了解他們的需求，簡化系統。有了所有這些，我們希望保留相當多的價格。現在，隨著我們明年的供需更加平衡並進入 23 年，它會減輕嗎？是的。但我們的工作將是管理這一點並儘可能多地保留定價，同時為客戶提供這些產品的良好價值。所以這是我們每天都非常密切關注的事情。

In the Escape business, we now have another player called Bronco Sport in the segment. It's incredibly profitable, and people really appreciate the product. We are not in the business of commodity products in that segment anymore. We've changed. We made that investment several years ago.

在 Escape 業務中，我們現在在該細分市場中擁有另一個名為 Bronco Sport 的參與者。這是非常有利可圖的，人們真的很欣賞這個產品。我們不再從事該領域的商品業務。我們變了。我們幾年前進行了這項投資。

Your next question comes from the line of Colin Langan with Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Colin Langan。

I just wanted to clarify, I saw your original guidance was that the first -- the second half was supposed to be up in volume, 30%. I mean I'm not sure if I'm misreading it, it sounds like Q3 may be up a bit from Q4. So is that 30% still not accurate? Obviously, it's kind of important when you think about the 10% into 2022, what pace we're going off of?

我只是想澄清一下，我看到你最初的指導是上半年 - 下半年應該增加 30%。我的意思是我不確定我是否誤讀了它，聽起來第三季度可能比第四季度有所上升。那麼，30% 仍然不准確嗎？顯然，當您考慮到 2022 年的 10% 時，這很重要，我們將以什麼速度前進？

Yes. Colin, that's a great question. Thank you. Now we did say last quarter that we expected the second half to be up about 30%. Looks like it's going to be up somewhere around 15%. And so what you're seeing flow through is the strength we had in the quarter relative to the top line and other actions that we took relative to cost, et cetera.

是的。科林，這是一個很好的問題。謝謝你。現在我們確實在上個季度說過，我們預計下半年將增長約 30%。看起來它會上漲15%左右。因此，您所看到的流動是我們在本季度相對於頂線的實力以及我們相對於成本等採取的其他行動。

So when you look at that walk, that bridge between Q3 to Q4, we expect market factors to be positive. We said we think volume is going to be up sequentially about 10%. We also see a little bit stronger mix continuing. And then, of course, you'll have some product-related costs, production-related costs associated with that. But net-net, market factors net of those costs to produce the increased volumes is going to be positive.

因此，當您查看第三季度到第四季度之間的那條橋樑時，我們預計市場因素將是積極的。我們說我們認為交易量將環比增長約 10%。我們還看到一些更強勁的組合仍在繼續。然後，當然，你會有一些與產品相關的成本，與生產相關的成本。但是，扣除生產增加量的成本後的淨市場因素將是積極的。

What we're seeing from a headwind standpoint, if you look at Q3 to Q4, are commodities. We expect that on a quarter-over-quarter basis, they're going to be up about $700 million. And if you look at that, so far year-to-date, we've seen about $1.6 billion of commodities hit us. And when you get to the fourth quarter, and you get the cumulative effect of that. On a year-over-year basis, commodities are going to be up about another $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter. So year-over-year, up $1.5 billion, sequentially, up $700 million.

從逆風的角度來看，如果您查看第三季度至第四季度，我們所看到的是大宗商品。我們預計，按季度計算，它們將增加約 7 億美元。如果你看一下，到目前為止，我們已經看到大約 16 億美元的商品襲擊了我們。當你進入第四季度時，你會得到累積的影響。與去年同期相比，第四季度大宗商品將再上漲約 15 億美元。因此，同比增長 15 億美元，環比增長 7 億美元。

And then we are going to see some higher warranty costs on a sequential basis in the fourth quarter for things that we have to take care of around extended warranties and a little bit higher coverages. But again, on a year-over-year basis, our warranty will improve in the fourth quarter and full year on a year-over-year basis. Our warranty, we expect to be good by about $1.4 billion.

然後我們將在第四季度看到一些更高的保修成本，因為我們必須圍繞延長保修和更高的覆蓋範圍處理一些事情。但同樣，與去年同期相比，我們的保修將在第四季度和全年同比改善。我們的保修，我們預計會好上 14 億美元。

Got it, John. That's very helpful.

明白了，約翰。這很有幫助。

Does that help you with the bridge?

這對你的橋樑有幫助嗎？

Yes. No, that's great. And just secondly, in terms of the redesign plan that's been out for a while, is India the last major step? I mean is this going to sort of -- is this fit over next quarter, maybe the last time we see these slides? Just got of curious. Or is there more still coming?

是的。不，那太好了。其次，就已經推出一段時間的重新設計計劃而言，印度是最後一步嗎？我的意思是，這會有點——這是否適合下個季度，也許是我們最後一次看到這些幻燈片？剛開始好奇。還是還會有更多？

Well, I think we're in good shape for now. Obviously, the acceleration of the BEV business and our ICE assets will be, I think, the next big transition for the whole industry, not just Ford. But Ford specifically, India is really the principal region country where we have struggled over time. And it's really great to see the progress the team is making in India and the very vibrant position we'll now have with the new lineup. And I'd just like to highlight the progress in South America for this quarter.

嗯，我認為我們現在狀態很好。顯然，我認為 BEV 業務和我們的 ICE 資產的加速將是整個行業的下一個重大轉變，而不僅僅是福特。但特別是福特，印度確實是我們長期掙扎的主要地區國家。很高興看到球隊在印度取得的進步以及我們現在在新陣容中所擁有的充滿活力的位置。我只想強調本季度南美的進展。

John, when is the last time we were profitable in South America?

約翰，我們上一次在南美盈利是什麼時候？

I believe it was 2013.

我相信那是2013年。

So let's hang that in the air for a second, 2013.

所以讓我們把它掛在空中一秒鐘，2013 年。

Your next question comes from the line of Joseph Spak with RBC.

您的下一個問題來自於 RBC 的 Joseph Spak。

Maybe just one quick one on the free cash guidance, which I think you maintained despite the EBIT guidance going higher. So is there something going on with working capital or something because you're saying you're releasing more vehicles. So I wouldn't think that would actually be a positive factor in the fourth quarter as well. So I'm curious what the offset is.

也許只是一個關於免費現金指導的快速指導，儘管息稅前利潤指導更高，我認為你仍然堅持這一點。那麼，營運資金是否發生了什麼事，或者因為你說你要發布更多的車輛。因此，我認為這實際上也不會成為第四季度的積極因素。所以我很好奇偏移量是什麼。

Yes. So what we're seeing there is that we've got the EBIT coming in, right, that improvement, but the less favorable improvement in working capital and timing differences hitting us in the quarter because we have lower-than-anticipated volume in the back half of the quarter due to the chip constraints. And so we get hit with that working capital at the end of the year. So that's what's happening to us on the free cash flow. So it's a timing issue.

是的。因此，我們看到的是，我們的息稅前利潤（EBIT）出現了，對，這種改善，但營運資本和時間差異的不利改善在本季度打擊了我們，因為我們的交易量低於預期由於籌碼限制，本季度後半段。因此，我們在年底受到了營運資金的打擊。這就是我們在自由現金流上發生的事情。所以這是一個時間問題。

Okay. And then I want to go back to some of the BEV announcements you've made over the past couple of months. And I know you talked again about the spend today, and you're now spending more than $30 billion. And I appreciate the breakdown you gave us sort of how you're spending that. Maybe this is just me, but I actually find it still fairly difficult to track what exactly you're spending over the coming years because I believe some of that has already been spent. So is it possible to maybe just say like of that $30 billion, what's being spent like starting next year through the middle of the decade?

好的。然後我想回到過去幾個月你發布的一些 BEV 公告。我知道你今天再次談到了支出，現在你的支出超過了 300 億美元。我很欣賞你給我們的關於你如何花錢的細分。也許這只是我，但我實際上發現仍然很難追踪你在未來幾年的確切支出，因為我相信其中一些已經花掉了。那麼，是否有可能只說 300 億美元，從明年開始到本世紀中葉的花費是多少？

So of the $30 billion, when you look at the cap, very little -- when you said about half of that was cap, very little of that has been spent through 2021 relative to the 13 -- to the $15 billion, about half of it. Of course, you're going to see the expense front loaded because that's primarily the engineering that we have in developing the battery electric vehicles. And then the direct investment, which is about 25% of it, that's for things like the vertical integration of the JVs and those types of things. And you saw those announcements this quarter with our plan in BlueOval SK, the battery plant. So that's how we're going to unfold that spending over time.

因此，在 300 億美元中，當你查看上限時，非常少——當你說其中大約一半是上限時，相對於 13 年，到 2021 年花費的資金很少——到 150 億美元，大約一半它。當然，您會看到前期費用，因為這主要是我們在開發電池電動汽車時所擁有的工程。然後是直接投資，約佔其中的 25%，用於諸如合資企業的垂直整合之類的事情。您在本季度與我們在電池廠 BlueOval SK 的計劃中看到了這些公告。這就是我們將如何隨著時間的推移展開支出。

Your next question comes from the line of Itay Michaeli with Citi.

您的下一個問題來自 Itay Michaeli 與 Citi 的對話。

Just 2 quick ones for me. First, is there any update on the BlueCruise deployment, including through OTA, maybe some initial customer feedback?

對我來說只有 2 個快速的。首先，BlueCruise 部署是否有任何更新，包括通過 OTA，也許是一些初步的客戶反饋？

Great. We're shipping with Mach-E F-Series now BlueCruise as they leave the factory, and we're going to be OTA-ing BlueCruise in the first quarter. We wanted to improve the customer experience. So we pushed it back in terms of an OTA because we want it to be much simpler for the customer than was originally planned. And that takes a little planning to consolidate.

偉大的。我們現在在出廠時配備 Mach-E F 系列 BlueCruise，我們將在第一季度進行 OTA-ing BlueCruise。我們想改善客戶體驗。所以我們在 OTA 方面推遲了它，因為我們希望它對客戶來說比最初計劃的要簡單得多。這需要一些計劃來鞏固。

Often these level 2 systems require multiple updates to the car, we want it to be very simple. That took a little bit more work on our team's part. And so it's available as we ship products now. And as an OTA, it will be in the first quarter, and it will be a lot simpler to use and get that OTA and update for the customer than it was originally planned.

通常這些 2 級系統需要對汽車進行多次更新，我們希望它非常簡單。這需要我們團隊做更多的工作。因此，它在我們現在發貨時可用。而作為 OTA，它將在第一季度進行，使用和為客戶獲取 OTA 和更新將比最初計劃的要簡單得多。

Does that answer your question?

這是否回答你的問題？

Yes. That's very, very helpful. And then maybe just a super quick follow-up, just a point of clarification. Thank you for the 2022 initial indications. In the release, at least it mentioned you expect to build on the strong performance in 2021. I'm just curious of that -- if we should interpret that as you expect to grow EBIT adjusted year-over-year in 2022.

是的。這非常非常有幫助。然後也許只是一個超級快速的跟進，只是一個澄清點。感謝您對 2022 年的初步指示。在發布中，至少它提到您希望在 2021 年的強勁表現基礎上再接再厲。我只是對此感到好奇——如果我們應該解釋為您預計 2022 年調整後的息稅前利潤將同比增長。

Yes. So we're not going to give a number at this point, Itay, but what we're saying is that the strength of our new product lineup, our high-volume nameplates like in the strength of what we're seeing from Mach-E, as Jim said, we think there's about demand for 200,000 units. We've got the Bronco and Maverick, E-Transit and F-150 Lightning are coming. It's the best lineup we've had. And so that's going to be a tailwind for us for sure as we go into next year. And you're seeing that come through this year, and we're going to build on that, but we're also going to have to manage the headwinds that we've talked about and the other puts and takes.

是的。所以我們現在不打算給出一個數字，Itay，但我們要說的是，我們的新產品陣容的實力，我們的大批量銘牌就像我們從 Mach 看到的實力一樣—— E，正如吉姆所說，我們認為大約需要 200,000 個單位。我們有 Bronco 和 Maverick，E-Transit 和 F-150 Lightning 即將推出。這是我們擁有的最好的陣容。因此，當我們進入明年時，這對我們來說肯定是順風。你會看到今年已經實現了這一點，我們將在此基礎上再接再厲，但我們也將不得不管理我們已經討論過的逆風以及其他看跌期權。

But what we can tell you is we are laser-focused on getting to the 8% target in 2023. And so we will manage into next year. These are the types of things we're seeing from a puts and takes standpoint, strengths, and all the tailwinds and then the headwinds. And we will manage that next year, and we'll be on the path next year towards our 8% target in 2020.

但我們可以告訴你的是，我們將專注於在 2023 年實現 8% 的目標。所以我們將努力進入明年。這些是我們從看跌期權、優勢以及所有順風和逆風中看到的事物類型。我們將在明年實現這一目標，明年我們將朝著 2020 年 8% 的目標邁進。

Your next question comes from the line of Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

Two questions, please. Two questions. The first one, very pleased to see beyond a target and -- for this 8% margin by 2023, a big focus of the company and clearly showing some progress there. How should we think about the impact on this from the margins on your electric vehicles? Obviously, the scale takes some time to build up, but you're going through that right now and probably have some level of visibility. So what's your lead to thinking around trajectory for margins on some of your BEVs? And to what extent you will or will not impact overall company margins and potentially how do we think about it beyond 2023?

請教兩個問題。兩個問題。第一個，非常高興地看到超出目標 - 到 2023 年將達到 8% 的利潤率，這是公司的一大重點，並且顯然在這方面取得了一些進展。我們應該如何從您的電動汽車的利潤來考慮對此的影響？顯然，規模需要一些時間來建立，但你現在正在經歷這些，並且可能有一定程度的可見性。那麼，您對某些 BEV 的利潤率軌跡進行思考的原因是什麼？您會或不會在多大程度上影響公司的整體利潤率，以及我們如何看待 2023 年之後的潛在影響？

Thanks. Such an important question for the company. I'd like John to comment on the margins. Right now, we have 3 high-volume, very well-accepted battery electric vehicles on our hands, Mach-E, E-Transit and the F-150 Lightning. So the way we look at it is, we want to grow this business really fast. Just the Mach-E demand itself, we think, is 200,000 units. That does not include the Lightning or the E-Transit.

謝謝。對公司來說是一個如此重要的問題。我希望約翰對頁邊空白髮表評論。目前，我們手上有 3 款大容量、非常受歡迎的電池電動汽車，即 Mach-E、E-Transit 和 F-150 Lightning。所以我們看待它的方式是，我們希望快速發展這項業務。我們認為，僅 Mach-E 的需求本身就是 200,000 台。這不包括 Lightning 或 E-Transit。

So our first job is, of course, post job 1 customer experience improvement. Post job 1 simplification and improvement of the cost of the vehicle. And post job 1 quality improvements using the data off the vehicles.

因此，我們的第一項工作當然是發布工作 1 客戶體驗改進。崗位工作 1 車輛成本的簡化和改進。並使用車輛數據發布工作 1 質量改進。

But perhaps our biggest job, in my opinion, is to break the constraints we have in manufacturing and our supply chain so we can get these products out to these customers. And that post job 1 orientation is quite different than how we historically looked at the ICE business where we wait to a minor change or something later to make those changes.

但在我看來，也許我們最大的工作是打破我們在製造和供應鏈中的限制，以便我們可以將這些產品提供給這些客戶。職位 1 的定位與我們歷史上看待 ICE 業務的方式完全不同，在這種業務中，我們等待微小的改變或稍後做出這些改變。

The constraint from Mach-E right now is batteries. We think we can break some of those constraints by working creatively with our China team and get batteries from China. So stay tuned, and I'll ask John to comment on the margins.

Mach-E 目前的限制是電池。我們認為我們可以通過與我們的中國團隊創造性地合作並從中國獲得電池來打破其中的一些限制。所以請繼續關注，我會請約翰對頁邊空白髮表評論。

All right. Well, as we talked about last quarter, Mach-E is EBIT profitable today, but we also know -- we also know that the margins are not as strong as our ICE margins. And so we're working on that. Over time, we expect as we scale, as you said. And as the technology costs come down, we will grow those margins. And ultimately, we do expect with these connected vehicles, these connected BEVs that the profit margins will be better than what we're seeing on ICE today, but that's over time.

好的。好吧，正如我們上個季度所談到的，Mach-E 今天的息稅前利潤是盈利的，但我們也知道——我們也知道利潤率不如我們的 ICE 利潤率那麼強。所以我們正在努力。正如您所說，隨著時間的推移，我們期望隨著規模的擴大。隨著技術成本的下降，我們將增加這些利潤。最終，我們確實希望這些聯網汽車、這些聯網 BEV 的利潤率將比我們今天在 ICE 上看到的要好，但這是隨著時間的推移。

And then my second question was on Argo. So very encouraged to see that you would like to encourage them as supportive of accessing the public markets. How do you envisage the future relationship between Ford and Argo to be? How important is that going to be as part of your overall business model?

然後我的第二個問題是關於 Argo。很高興看到您願意鼓勵他們支持進入公共市場。您如何設想福特和 Argo 之間的未來關係？作為您的整體商業模式的一部分，這有多重要？

Mission-critical. For us to truly disrupt personal ownership, we have to democratize shared mobility. And the self-driving and mobility in the driven world are absolutely mission-critical for the company to disrupt ourself. I am really proud of the team's progress. It's different than our competitors in the space. We've gone to the most difficult miles in 4, 5 different cities.

關鍵任務。為了讓我們真正顛覆個人所有權，我們必須使共享出行民主化。驅動世界中的自動駕駛和移動性對於公司顛覆我們自己來說絕對是至關重要的任務。我為團隊的進步感到非常自豪。它與我們在該領域的競爭對手不同。我們已經走過了 4、5 個不同城市中最艱難的里程。

Our mapping, our SDS deployment and the algorithms are built to be scaled for production deployment. So we're not going to a small market area in easy miles like others. We're taking on the toughest problems now and building our capability for scaling quickly. And I think that's always been our approach.

我們的映射、我們的 SDS 部署和算法是為生產部署而構建的。因此，我們不會像其他人那樣去幾英里遠的小市場區域。我們現在正在解決最棘手的問題，並建立我們快速擴展的能力。我認為這一直是我們的方法。

The relationship with Argo and us and Volkswagen is very close, but we do see us moving into more of a production mode now, and we're really ready for that. And we think this will take more capital and a little more time, and we think the access to public capital is really mission-critical for our journey.

與 Argo 和我們以及大眾汽車的關係非常密切，但我們確實看到我們現在正在進入更多的生產模式，我們真的為此做好了準備。我們認為這將需要更多的資金和更多的時間，而且我們認為獲得公共資本對於我們的旅程來說確實至關重要。

Your final question comes from the line of Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

你的最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Sorry for the background noise here. There's (inaudible) First, who do you like better Ford or Tesla?

抱歉這裡有背景噪音。有（聽不清）首先，你更喜歡福特還是特斯拉？

Ford.

福特。

There we go. He's a Ford fan. He's got -- we got a Ford fan here. Jim, nobody has, I think, explained as lucidly and clearly the always on and the Ford Pro stuff the way you have, right? So you get kudos for that. But you're seeing some of your competitors who make some spherical investments in the downstream to make kind of -- for that customer experience. Volkswagen buying your car. And some start-ups, including ones that you know pretty well kind of owning that physical part of it. Is there any gap in your strategy as you go always on and really the full service -- is there anything you want to vertically integrate to either the Ford umbrella? Or is working with the franchisers and the third parties sufficient given this big change in (inaudible)?

我們去吧。他是福特的粉絲。他有——我們這裡有一個福特車迷。吉姆，我認為，沒有人能像你那樣清晰而清晰地解釋永遠在線和福特 Pro 的東西，對吧？所以你會因此而受到稱讚。但是您會看到您的一些競爭對手在下游進行了一些球形投資，以實現客戶體驗。大眾汽車買你的車。還有一些初創公司，包括那些你非常熟悉的公司，它們擁有它的實體部分。你的戰略是否有任何差距，因為你一直在做，真正的全方位服務——你有什麼想垂直整合到福特傘的嗎？或者考慮到（聽不清）的巨大變化，與特許經營商和第三方合作是否足夠？

Great question. Our philosophy is different. We think partnership on the demand layers for autonomy and pre-autonomy is mission-critical for our always-on strategy. Are there pieces missing that we're working really hard on? You bet you. We're not going to talk about them today, though.

好問題。我們的理念不同。我們認為，在自治和前自治的需求層上建立夥伴關係對於我們始終在線的戰略至關重要。是否缺少我們正在努力工作的部分？你賭你。不過，我們今天不打算談論它們。

All right. Wonderful follow-up for you and your dealers. They're crushing it. Some people say they're gouging, that might be unfair because they're paying high prices, too, for the vehicles, but we're starting to see 4 handles, 5 handles, 6-handled GPUs all in, it's really big chunk at the price of a car, Jim. At the risk of selling do you think you're making too much because I know that's a [grouchy] question, do you think as far as that, that you can capture for a Ford in the consumer?

好的。為您和您的經銷商提供精彩的後續服務。他們正在粉碎它。有人說他們在騙人，這可能是不公平的，因為他們也為車輛付出了高昂的代價，但我們開始看到 4 個手柄、5 個手柄、6 個手柄的 GPU 全部投入使用，這真的是一大塊以汽車的價格，吉姆。冒著出售的風險，您是否認為自己賺的太多了，因為我知道這是一個[不高興的]問題，您認為就這一點而言，您可以在消費者中為福特汽車捕獲嗎？

Well, this is also really important. First of all, I would say the heart and soul of Ford's strategy is our commercial business. In that business where vehicles are highly utilized, our dealer network is one of our most important advantages versus the new competitors.

嗯，這也很重要。首先，我想說福特戰略的核心和靈魂是我們的商業業務。在車輛高度利用的業務中，我們的經銷商網絡是我們與新競爭對手相比最重要的優勢之一。

I'll give you some statistics. We have 650 dedicated commercial, mostly service centers in the United States and 850 transit centers across Europe. That will take a lot of time and a lot of money for someone to recreate. Every one of those dealers has multiple bodybuilders that can call design for those trades in those locations for our Ford vehicles.

我給你一些統計數據。我們在美國有 650 個專門的商業中心，主要是服務中心，在歐洲有 850 個轉運中心。這將需要很多時間和很多錢才能讓某人重新創建。這些經銷商中的每一個都有多個車身製造商，他們可以為我們的福特汽車在這些地點進行這些交易的設計。

So the dealer body is not only important for the aftersales experience in making sure those vehicles can be serviced, but it's also mission-critical for the outfit of those products. So the dealer network is absolutely strategically critical for our leadership and maintaining that as we go to digital connected vehicles for our commercial customers.

因此，經銷商機構不僅對於確保這些車輛可以維修的售後體驗很重要，而且對於這些產品的裝備也至關重要。因此，在我們為商業客戶開發數字互聯汽車時，經銷商網絡對於我們的領導地位和保持這一地位絕對具有戰略意義。

There's no doubt that many customers want a 3 or 4-click, very easy service experience on the retail side. And we're working really carefully on that, including a simple e-commerce platform. And actually, in China, our BEV business already has 25 direct stores by the end of this year. So we're starting to experiment.

毫無疑問，許多客戶希望在零售方面獲得 3 或 4 次點擊、非常簡單的服務體驗。我們正在為此非常認真地工作，包括一個簡單的電子商務平台。事實上，在中國，截至今年年底，我們的 BEV 業務已經擁有 25 家直營店。所以我們開始做實驗。

I think our dealers have served us really well. I'm very proud of them. I'm especially proud of our commercial dealer. And we are very vigilant. You can imagine, I get lots of e-mails every day about transaction prices from customers on our hottest products. And we all feel obligated to represent the brand professionally for our customers.

我認為我們的經銷商為我們提供了很好的服務。我為他們感到非常自豪。我為我們的商業經銷商感到特別自豪。我們非常警惕。你可以想像，我每天都會收到很多關於我們最熱門產品的客戶交易價格的電子郵件。我們都覺得有義務為我們的客戶專業地代表品牌。

This concludes the Ford Motor Company third quarter 2021 earnings conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

福特汽車公司 2021 年第三季度財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。