福特汽車 (F) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone. My name is Gary, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Ford Motor Company second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

今天是個好日子。我叫加里，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。現在，我歡迎您參加福特汽車公司 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Lynn Antipas Tyson, Executive Director of Investor Relations.

現在，我想將電話轉給投資人關係執行董事 Lynn Antipas Tyson。

Thank you, Gary. Welcome to Ford Motor Company's second-quarter 2024 earnings call. With me today are Jim Farley, President and CEO; and John Lawler, Vice Chair and Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us for Q&A is Cathy O'Callaghan, CEO of Ford Credit.

謝謝你，加里。歡迎參加福特汽車公司 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長吉姆法利 (Jim Farley)；副主席兼財務長約翰‧勞勒 (John Lawler)。福特信貸執行長 Cathy O'Callaghan 也加入了我們的問答環節。

Today's discussion includes some non-GAAP references. These are reconciled to the most comparable US GAAP measures in the Appendix of our earnings deck. And you can find the deck along with the rest of our earnings materials and other important content at shareholder.ford.com.

今天的討論包括一些非 GAAP 參考資料。這些數據與我們收益表附錄中最具可比性的美國公認會計準則衡量標準進行了調整。您可以在股東.福特.com 上找到該簡報以及我們其餘的收益資料和其他重要內容。

Our discussion also includes forward-looking statements about our expectations. Actual results may differ from those stated. The most significant factors that could cause actual results to differ are included on Page 20. Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year-over-year; company EBIT, EPS and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis.

我們的討論還包括有關我們期望的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與所述結果不同。第 20 頁列出了可能導致實際結果不同的最重要因素。公司息稅前利潤、每股盈餘和自由現金流均經過調整。

Now I'll turn the call over to Jim.

現在我將把電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks, Lynn, and thanks for joining us.

謝謝林恩，也謝謝您加入我們。

First, I wanted to thank our global team. Remaking forward into a high-margin, high-growth, more capital-efficient and more durable business is really hard work. It requires focus, collaboration and excellence.

首先，我要感謝我們的全球團隊。轉型為高利潤、高成長、資本效率更高、更持久的企業確實是一項艱苦的工作。它需要專注、協作和卓越。

And I also want to thank our investors. We're committed to creating value consistently over the long term, and we appreciate your support and input. Execution against our Ford+ plan allows us to break free from the low-margin, capital-intensive, and cyclical attributes that have constrained auto -- legacy auto valuations for a long time. And this process does not happen in a straight line. We are absolutely a different company than we were three years ago, and our pace of change is intensifying.

我還要感謝我們的投資者。我們致力於長期持續創造價值，感謝您的支持與投入。執行我們的福特+計劃使我們能夠擺脫長期限制汽車——傳統汽車估值的低利潤、資本密集和週期性特徵。而且這個過程並不是直線發生的。與三年前相比，我們已經是一家完全不同的公司，而且我們的變革步伐正在加快。

The creation of Ford Pro, Blue and Model e have been a huge catalyst for transparency, accountability, and more rigorous capital allocation. Our Ford Pro business is amazing. It is a high-margin business tracking towards $70 billion in revenue this year with further opportunities for profitable growth outside of vehicle sales, parts and service, and software.

福特 Pro、Blue 和 Model e 的誕生極大地促進了透明度、問責制和更嚴格的資本配置。我們的福特 Pro 業務非常出色。這是一項高利潤業務，今年的收入將達到 700 億美元，並且在汽車銷售、零件和服務以及軟體之外還有進一步的獲利成長機會。

And a good example of that is a recent decision by our team to add 100,000 units of capacity of Super Duty in Canada. It not only serves our customers, but it's capital-efficient and has very high returns for many years to come.

一個很好的例子是我們團隊最近決定在加拿大增加 10 萬台 Super Duty 的容量。它不僅為我們的客戶提供服務，而且資本效率高，並且在未來幾年內具有非常高的回報。

As you know, we flipped our international operations many years ago from deep losses to now profits and a positive cash flow with more opportunities to head, and that includes China. We also took our product portfolio from too many generic vehicles and infused it with passion and purpose. We build out our iconic F-Series and transit lines as well as passion vehicles like Mustang and the new Bronco lineup and sub-brands like Raptor and Tremor and Dark Horse.

如您所知，我們多年前就將國際業務從嚴重虧損轉變為現在的盈利和正現金流，並擁有更多的領導機會，其中包括中國。我們也從過多的通用汽車中汲取了我們的產品組合，並為其註入了熱情和目標。我們打造了標誌性的 F 系列和交通系列，以及野馬和新 Bronco 系列等激情車型，以及 Raptor、Tremor 和 Dark Horse 等子品牌。

Few OEMs can offer a customer choice like Ford at our scale. Ford is number one in our home market for internal combustion or number two in EVs and have been for 2.5 years. And we are the number three hybrid brand in the US.

很少有原始設備製造商能夠像福特一樣為客戶提供如此規模的選擇。福特在我們的國內內燃機市場排名第一，在電動車市場排名第二，並且已經保持了 2.5 年。我們是美國第三大混合品牌。

But what's less visible, but incredibly important for investors is the foundational work underway in the company to move to software-defined vehicles and breakthrough digital experiences. And I'll talk about that later. This will have significant operating leverage.

但對投資者來說不太明顯但極其重要的是公司正在進行的基礎工作，以轉向軟體定義的車輛和突破性的數位體驗。我稍後會討論這個問題。這將具有顯著的營運槓桿作用。

Ford+ is on track. Today, we reaffirmed our adjusted EBIT guidance for the whole year and raised our outlook for adjusted free cash flow.

福特+已步入正軌。今天，我們重申了全年調整後的息稅前利潤指引，並上調了調整後自由現金流的預期。

I'm going to comment on our EV landscape and strategy, software technology and services that are growing importance at Ford, our Ford Pro business, and quality. On electrification, we've been very vocal about why electric vehicles are so important and a great choice for customers and businesses. Customers' usage data and cost of ownership data would indicate about 50% of customers who buy automobiles would be better served on buying an electric vehicle.

我將評論我們的電動車格局和策略、在福特日益重要的軟體技術和服務、我們的福特 Pro 業務和品質。在電氣化方面，我們一直非常直言不諱地解釋為什麼電動車如此重要，並且是客戶和企業的絕佳選擇。客戶的使用數據和擁有成本數據表明，大約 50% 的汽車客戶在購買電動車時會得到更好的服務。

Now there's a lot of misconceptions around EVs on the separate areas of cost like resale value and insurance, of course, range, and charging, and battery life. And OEMs like Ford must do a much better job in educating our customers about the advantages that any EV offers in terms of cost of ownership.

現在，人們對電動車在不同的成本領域存在著許多誤解，例如轉售價值和保險，當然還有續航里程、充電和電池壽命。像福特這樣的原始設備製造商必須做得更好，讓我們的客戶了解任何電動車在擁有成本方面所提供的優勢。

As you know, we are the number two EV brand in the US for over 2.5 years. That's a long time, and we've learned a lot. And now we have used those learnings to sharpen our strategy.

如您所知，我們已連續 2.5 年成為美國第二大電動車品牌。那是很長一段時間，我們學到了很多。現在我們已經利用這些經驗來完善我們的策略。

What we learned is that it's incredibly important to be transparent about Model e losses inside the company as well. This forced accountability, and the result is our team is getting much more strappy and resourceful in terms of turning the business around.

我們了解到，在公司內部對 Model e 的損失保持透明也非常重要。這種強制責任，其結果是我們的團隊在扭轉業務方面變得更加敏捷和足智多謀。

We are now more disciplined and have to be for capital and expense. And this means we will not launch vehicles at a loss that are not good for our business, knowing what we know now about the reality of the market equation. And we clearly see China and Tesla as the cost benchmark.

我們現在更加自律，必須注重資本和費用。這意味著我們不會虧本推出對我們業務不利的車輛，因為了解我們現在對市場方程式的現實了解。我們顯然將中國和特斯拉視為成本基準。

We also see excess capacity that will lead to more pricing pressures, which is in our business plan, more consolidation, and many, many more partnerships. We see less vertical integration in some areas to relieve capital. And we see a lot of tough choices on footprint.

我們也看到產能過剩將導致更多的定價壓力，這在我們的業務計劃中，更多的整合以及更多的合作關係中。我們發現某些領域的垂直整合較少，以緩解資本壓力。我們在足跡上看到了很多艱難的選擇。

Early majority of customers are really different than the early adopters, particularly in retail. And we see a lot more openness to hybrids and extended range electric vehicles we call EREVs. We also see a divergence on electrification adoption between commercial and retail. Commercial customers focus on total cost of ownership, the use of vehicles much more intensely, and they do not overbuy batteries that retail customers do.

早期的大多數客戶與早期採用者確實不同，尤其是在零售領域。我們看到人們對混合動力車和增程電動車（我們稱之為 EREV）更加開放。我們也看到商業和零售業在電氣化採用方面存在差異。商業客戶更加關注整體擁有成本和車輛的使用，並且他們不會像零售客戶那樣過度購買電池。

They are also investing in our Pro charging depots and our integrated software, because they want to be smart about the cost of charging their vehicles. And I'm happy to say that our EV Pro contribution margin for EV vans is now already positive.

他們還投資了我們的專業充電站和整合軟體，因為他們希望明智地了解車輛的充電成本。我很高興地說，我們的 EV Pro 對電動貨車的貢獻率現在已經是正值。

We also have learned a lot about the size of the vehicle. We believe smaller, more affordable vehicles are the way to go for EV in volume. Why? Because the math is completely different than ICE. In ICE, a business we've been in for 120 years, the bigger the vehicle, the higher the margin. But it's exactly the opposite for EVs. The larger the vehicle, the bigger the battery, the more pressure on margin because customers will not pay a premium for those larger batteries.

我們還了解了很多有關車輛尺寸的資訊。我們相信更小、更便宜的車輛是電動車批量化的出路。為什麼？因為數學與 ICE 完全不同。在 ICE 產業，我們已經從事了 120 年，車輛越大，利潤就越高。但對於電動車來說，情況恰恰相反。車輛越大，電池越大，利潤壓力就越大，因為客戶不會為那些更大的電池支付溢價。

And lastly, compliance. There is a lot of pressure on compliance. And the lower demand for EVs, especially the pricing, means that CO2 credits are now likely going to be needed for fleet flexibility and optionality and will be a critical strategy choice for any company.

最後，合規性。合規壓力很大。對電動車的需求下降，尤其是定價的下降，意味著現在可能需要二氧化碳積分來實現車隊的靈活性和選擇性，而這將成為任何公司的關鍵策略選擇。

What are the success criteria for EVs in the future? Well, the first one is to have the right mix of fully and partially electric solutions. This is imperative. You have to have a compelling product road map, and you have to have very flexible manufacturing.

未來電動車的成功標準是什麼？嗯，第一個是正確組合全電動和部分電動解決方案。這是勢在必行的。您必須擁有引人注目的產品路線圖，並且必須擁有非常靈活的製造。

A good example is our hybrid business. The global hybrid portfolio at Ford is on track to go 40% this year across nine nameplates. And we really bet on hybrid trucks. In the first half of the year, our hybrid pickups, Maverick and F-150 grew more than three times the rate of the overall hybrid segment.

我們的混合業務就是一個很好的例子。今年，福特的全球混合動力產品組合預計將在九個品牌中成長 40%。我們確實押注於混合動力卡車。今年上半年，我們的混合動力皮卡、Maverick 和 F-150 的成長速度是整個混合動力細分市場的三倍多。

Our F-150 Hybrid with Pro Power Onboard is a game changer for our customers. Commercial customers have power on the run like job sites. And our retail customers have emergency power backup. And boy, have we seen that in Texas and all the other extreme weather events -- how important it is for our customers.

我們配備 Pro Power Onboard 的 F-150 Hybrid 為我們的客戶帶來了遊戲規則的改變。商業客戶擁有像工地一樣的運作權力。我們的零售客戶有緊急備用電源。天哪，我們在德克薩斯州和所有其他極端天氣事件中看到過這一點嗎——這對我們的客戶來說是多麼重要。

The second success factor is matching the cost of the Chinese OEMs and Tesla, especially on affordable EVs. Now when people hear about affordability and they think about small and unaffordable, I'd like to address that now.

第二個成功因素是與中國原始設備製造商和特斯拉的成本相匹配，尤其是在價格實惠的電動車方面。現在，當人們聽到負擔能力並想到小而負擔不起時，我現在想解決這個問題。

We are designing a super-efficient platform, leveraging innovation across our product development, supply chain, and manufacturing teams. With no engine or drive team, a smaller vehicle can have a much roomier package -- actually, the interior package of a class above with a small silhouette. That's a big advantage for customers versus ICE.

我們正在設計一個超高效的平台，利用我們的產品開發、供應鏈和製造團隊的創新。由於沒有引擎或驅動團隊，較小的車輛可以擁有更寬敞的包裝——實際上，內部包裝與上述級別的車相比具有較小的輪廓。與 ICE 相比，這對客戶來說是一個很大的優勢。

And we're focusing on very differentiated vehicles priced under $40,000 or even $30,000. And we're going to focus on two segments: work and adventure. And why does this matter? Well, the use case for smaller vehicles, affordable vehicles means shorter trips, more urban locations. It fits the duty cycle of an EV.

我們專注於價格低於 40,000 美元甚至 30,000 美元的差異化車輛。我們將重點放在兩個部分：工作和冒險。為什麼這很重要？嗯，小型車輛、經濟型車輛的使用案例意味著更短的行程、更多的城市地點。它適合電動車的佔空比。

And affordability -- well, smaller batteries have an outsized impact on the cost and margin in the vehicle. And the Consumer Tax Credit in US become a much larger part of the sticker price of the vehicle. And that is supercharging the lower cost of ownership that EVs have already without it. And finally, we have the ability to leverage this platform across many top hats, which will drive scale and large installed base for our growing software business.

以及可承受性——較小的電池對車輛的成本和利潤有著巨大的影響。美國的消費者稅收抵免成為車輛標價的很大一部分。這進一步降低了電動車的擁有成本。最後，我們有能力在許多頂級公司中利用這個平台，這將為我們不斷成長的軟體業務帶來規模和龐大的安裝基礎。

And the last, success criteria is to be really careful about your larger EVs. For us, they will be part of the picture, but success requires even more breakthrough on cost efficiency, much smarter choices on segments -- in our case, work and commercial -- a lot of partnerships and a lot of technology pathways.

最後，成功的標準是要非常小心您的大型電動車。對我們來說，它們將成為圖景的一部分，但成功需要在成本效率方面取得更多突破，在細分市場上做出更明智的選擇——在我們的例子中，工作和商業——大量的合作夥伴關係和大量的技術途徑。

Overall, the EV journey has been humbling, but it has forced us to get even more fit as a company, including applying it to our ICE business, and that will pay off in the long run. I am so happy we scaled 2.5 years ago, and we have the option to incorporate those learnings into our next-generation of EVs launching in the coming years.

總體而言，電動車之旅一直令人沮喪，但它迫使我們作為一家公司更加適應，包括將其應用於我們的內燃機業務，從長遠來看，這將得到回報。我很高興我們在 2.5 年前就實現了規模化，並且我們可以選擇將這些經驗教訓融入未來幾年推出的下一代電動車中。

I want to double-click on the software technology and services business. Ford alongside Rivian and Tesla, are really the only non-Chinese OEMs controlling software across all the vehicle domain. Most companies are doing OTAs on vehicle entertainment, but Ford now has multi-year experience on updating powertrains, braking, the fundamental performance of the vehicle, and connectivity. And the breadth of our portfolio, including F-150 and our Pro business, the customer use case is clearly much more complicated than Rivian and Tesla.

我想雙擊軟體技術和服務業務。福特與 Rivian 和特斯拉一樣，是唯一控制整個汽車領域軟體的非中國 OEM 廠商。大多數公司都在車輛娛樂方面進行 OTA，但福特現在在更新動力系統、煞車、車輛基本性能和連接方面擁有多年經驗。我們產品組合的廣度（包括 F-150 和 Pro 業務）的客戶用例顯然比 Rivian 和 Tesla 複雜得多。

Our vehicles are increasingly general-purpose computers capable of delivering the type of application environment, AI for our customers, and user experiences that we expect from all of our digital devices. And this allows us to create powerful, connected, ever-improving customized experiences, which I'll talk about.

我們的車輛越來越多地成為通用計算機，能夠為我們的客戶提供應用環境類型、人工智慧以及我們期望從所有數位設備中獲得的用戶體驗。這使我們能夠創造強大的、互聯的、不斷改進的客製化體驗，我將討論這一點。

Many of you may be surprised that Ford leads on OTAs. According to the 2024 OEM OTA capability rankings in North America, we are the leader based on quality of our updates. This is not how many updates we do -- although we do a lot -- it's about the ability to improve the fundamental performance and capability of the entire vehicle and all the modules in the vehicle.

你們中的許多人可能會對福特在 OTA 領域的領先地位感到驚訝。根據 2024 年北美 OEM OTA 能力排名，我們的更新品質處於領先地位。這不是我們做了多少更新——儘管我們做了很多——而是關於提高整個車輛和車輛中所有模組的基本性能和能力的能力。

And there's no better evidence the Mach-E -- longer-range, better efficiency on the battery, faster zero to 60 times, better BlueCruise performance; we've done it all with Mach-E for many years now. Our vision is not just a powerful computer on wheels; it's actually a robot. We will link with these digital experiences, things that only a vehicle can really do like safety and security, and the other innovative use cases we shared with you at Capital Markets Day.

Mach-E 沒有更好的證據——航程更遠、電池效率更高、0 到 60 倍更快、BlueCruise 性能更好；多年來我們一直用 Mach-E 完成這一切。我們的願景不僅僅是一台強大的有輪子的電腦；它實際上是一個機器人。我們將把這些數位體驗、只有車輛才能真正做到的事情（例如安全和保障）以及我們在資本市場日與您分享的其他創新用例聯繫起來。

These experiences that will drive higher profitability, accretive revenue, and are the reasons for customers to actually stay with Ford and Lincoln. Lower marketing costs are now becoming clear to us.

這些體驗將帶來更高的獲利能力、增加收入，也是客戶真正留在福特和林肯的原因。我們現在越來越清楚行銷成本的降低。

One example on the retail side on the technology is our first implementation of the Phoenix system we call the Lincoln digital experience with our new panorama display in our new Nautilus. This experience is really a differentiator in the luxury space with Google Maps and Google assistance and an enhanced CarPlay.

零售方面技術的一個例子是我們首次實施 Phoenix 系統，我們稱之為林肯數位體驗，並在我們的新 Nautilus 中使用新的全景顯示器。憑藉 Google 地圖、Google 協助以及增強的 CarPlay，這種體驗確實在豪華車領域中獨樹一幟。

Our sales have surged for Nautilus 48%. We now have much younger customers. And the biggest application for this technology is BlueCruise and ADAS. It's a leading hands-free driving technology in America, we believe. We now have 415,000 enabled vehicles on the road. That's a 25% increase in one quarter. We have 213 million miles, 3-million-plus miles hands-free driving now since launch.

我們的 Nautilus 銷售額激增了 48%。我們現在有更年輕的客戶。而這項技術最大的應用就是 BlueCruise 和 ADAS。我們相信，這是美國領先的免持駕駛技術。目前，我們有 415,000 輛啟用的車輛在路上行駛。一個季度內成長了 25%。自推出以來，我們已行駛了 2.13 億英里，其中免持駕駛里程已超過 300 萬英里。

To better dimension our progress to software technology and services, in the quarter alone, total company paid subscriptions grew 40% to over 765,000 paid subscriptions. Our integrated service revenue is now on track for double-digit growth this year. We are targeting $1 billion of revenue next year for our software. This revenue has gross margins of 50%-plus, which drives significant operating leverage and improved capital efficiency.

為了更好地衡量我們在軟體技術和服務方面的進展，僅在本季度，公司付費訂閱總數就增加了 40%，達到超過 765,000 份付費訂閱。我們的綜合服務收入今年可望實現兩位數成長。我們的軟體明年的營收目標是 10 億美元。該收入的毛利率超過 50%，這推動了顯著的營運槓桿並提高了資本效率。

Now the major part of this new software business is actually Ford Pro. So let me touch on that. The foundation of Pro is really simple; it's our vehicles. A robust and fresh lineup -- the freshest we've ever had at Ford of ICE, hybrid, and EVs, including the all-new Super Duty, the all new Ranger globally, the all new F-150 that has just finished its launch, the all-new Custom Transit in Europe and our two small vans in Europe -- the new Transit Connect and Courier, and the new extended range two-tonne electric transit we sell in both Europe and North America.

現在這個新軟體業務的主要部分實際上是 Ford Pro。讓我談談這一點。 Pro 的基礎非常簡單；這是我們的車輛。強大而新鮮的陣容——福特有史以來最新鮮的內燃機、混合動力和電動車，包括全新的 Super Duty、全球全新的 Ranger、剛完成上市的全新 F-150 、歐洲的全新Custom Transit 以及我們在歐洲的兩款小型貨車－新款Transit Connect 和Courier，以及我們在歐洲和北美銷售的新型增程兩噸電動運輸車。

Now what these brands and vehicles are seeing is resilient revenue streams based on a much longer tail spending on the infrastructure by government and private enterprise. We also have a very robust and diverse customer range. We dominate small business and medium business with tradesmen, but we have very large customers. We have state, local, and national governments and we have rental, which by the way, is very profitable for Pro. In fact, in US, one out of four of these fleets -- mom-and-pop tradesmen all the way to large companies, one out of for those fleets in the US are Ford only.

現在，這些品牌和汽車看到的是基於政府和私人企業在基礎設施上更長尾部支出的彈性收入流。我們還擁有非常強大且多樣化的客戶範圍。我們以商人為主的小型企業和中型企業占主導地位，但我們也有非常大的客戶。我們有州、地方和國家政府，還有租金，順便說一句，這對 Pro 來說是非常有利可圖的。事實上，在美國，四分之一的車隊（從家庭商人一直到大公司），其中四分之一的車隊都是福特汽車。

But the big opportunity for Pro is beyond vehicles. And that's where we're focusing. With Pro Power Intelligence, we have a highly differentiated telematics offering. We offer real-time driver coaching, which provides significant improvements for driver safety, and it's now available in about half of our modem-enabled Pro vehicles. This includes features like seatbelt and speed monitoring and harsh braking notification.

但 Pro 的巨大機會不僅在於車輛。這就是我們關注的焦點。憑藉 Pro Power Intelligence，我們擁有高度差異化的遠端資訊處理產品。我們提供即時駕駛員指導，這可以顯著提高駕駛員的安全性，現在我們大約一半的支援調製解調器的 Pro 車輛都配備了該功能。這包括安全帶、速度監控以及刺耳煞車通知等功能。

Pro Intelligence is also a platform for vehicle controls. Our first foray -- it's a big deal -- is Fleet Start Inhibit, which protects our Pro vehicles from theft and also unauthorized use. We will expand this vehicle controls to speed control and acceleration limits in the near term.

Pro Intelligence 也是一個車輛控制平台。我們的第一個嘗試——這是一件大事——是車隊啟動禁止，它可以保護我們的專業車輛免遭盜竊和未經授權的使用。我們將在短期內將此車輛控制擴展到速度控制和加速度限制。

Now no third-party telematics solution can offer this functionality, because it's related to the vehicle. We call it an uncrossable mode for our software business. Over 4 billion miles have now been traveled in the first half of this year on vehicles equipped with Pro telematics, insights, and controls. And our paid subscriptions for Ford Pro Intelligence grew 35% year over year now including 610,000 paid subscriptions with the triple-digit growth in telematics, fleet management, and charging depot software.

現在沒有第三方遠端資訊處理解決方案可以提供此功能，因為它與車輛相關。我們稱之為軟體業務不可跨越的模式。今年上半年，配備 Pro 遠端資訊處理、洞察和控制功能的車輛已行駛了超過 40 億英里。我們的 Ford Pro Intelligence 付費訂閱量目前年增 35%，其中付費訂閱量達到 61 萬份，其中遠端資訊處理、車隊管理和充電站軟體實現了三位數成長。

Turning to physical service, which is a second big non-vehicle revenue profit for us at Pro. We have a massive opportunity to grow physicals services of parts. In the first half of this year, Ford Pro was only 24% of our aftersales revenue. It's a huge upside.

轉向實體服務，這是 Pro 的第二大非車輛收入利潤。我們有巨大的機會來發展零件的實體服務。今年上半年，福特Pro僅占我們售後收入的24%。這是一個巨大的優勢。

Bank of America estimated the profit pool for maintenance, repair, and parts -- physical repair of the vehicle that escape our dealer network is about $135 billion. That's 2.5 times the profit dealers capture through vehicle sales and financing. This is a huge untapped TAM.

美國銀行估計，維護、修理和零件（對我們經銷商網路以外的車輛進行實體修理）的利潤池約為 1,350 億美元。這是經銷商透過汽車銷售和融資獲得的利潤的 2.5 倍。這是一個巨大的未開發的 TAM。

Ford Pro already has the largest physical and mobile service network in North America. But for specialized commercial service, many of which is open 24/7 for our customers with specialty technicians -- and we continue to expand that physical network to a competitive advantage by adding Pro Elite centers and mobile service units.

Ford Pro 已經擁有北美最大的實體和行動服務網路。但對於專業商業服務，其中許多服務是 24/7 為我們的客戶提供專業技術人員的服務 - 我們透過增加 Pro Elite 中心和行動服務單位來繼續擴展該實體網路以獲得競爭優勢。

We are on track this year to reach 27,000 commercial service bay by the end of this year. That is up 20% year over year. Growth will be led by Elite bays, the largest and most capable of the service bays for Pro, which will more than quadruple this year to 1,300.

今年我們預計在年底前達到 27,000 個商業服務港位。較去年同期成長 20%。成長將由 Elite 機位引領，這是最大、能力最強的 Pro 服務機位，今年將增加四倍多，達到 1,300 個。

We are now on track to increase our mobile service units by 45% to 2,500 service trucks and vans. That's 10% of our entire physical network. Mobile service network is incredibly important competitively. None of our competitors offer this kind of scale. We address many repairs, limiting our downtime for our customers. We service multi-make fleets, which helps us with our share garage, unlike our competitors. And global mobile repair orders that generated from this fleet is up 115% in the quarter.

我們現在預計將行動服務單位增加 45%，達到 2,500 輛服務卡車和貨車。這是我們整個實體網路的 10%。行動服務網路的競爭極為重要。我們的競爭對手都沒有提供這種規模。我們解決了許多維修問題，限制了客戶的停機時間。我們為多品牌車隊提供服務，這有助於我們共享車庫，這與我們的競爭對手不同。該車隊產生的全球行動維修訂單本季成長了 115%。

Our focus on software and physical service expands the moat for Pro while helping our customers improve productivity and grow their business. Pro is on track for software and physical services to contribute 20% of our EBIT by 2026.

我們對軟體和實體服務的關注擴大了 Pro 的護城河，同時幫助我們的客戶提高生產力和發展業務。到 2026 年，Pro 的軟體和實體服務預計將貢獻我們 EBIT 的 20%。

On quality, we're making progress with our latest vehicles. Ford jumped 14 points in the latest J.D. Power's 2024 US Initial Quality Survey. We went from 23rd in the industry to 9th. Bronco Sport is now named the best small utility in initial quality, outperforming 18 competitors. Our launch in initial quality are leading indicators for warrants in the future, and we expect to see benefits in the future.

在品質方面，我們的最新車輛正在取得進步。福特在最新的 J.D. Power 2024 年美國新車品質調查中躍升了 14 個百分點。我們從產業第 23 位上升到第 9 位。 Bronco Sport 現已被評為初始品質最佳小型公用事業公司，表現優於 18 名競爭對手。我們推出的初始品質是未來認股權證的領先指標，我們預計未來會看到好處。

We did see warranty costs increase in 2Q, of course, tied to new technologies, FSAs, and inflationary pressures for the cost of repair. We expect technology-related warranty cost to now normalize as technology matures, and we deploy that great OTA capability to address known issues. We are confident we are on the right trajectory with a very clear non-negotiable mission at Ford to deliver best-in-class quality.

我們確實看到第二季度的保固成本增加，當然，這與新技術、FSA 和維修成本的通膨壓力有關。我們預計，隨著技術的成熟，與技術相關的保固成本現在將正常化，我們部署了強大的 OTA 功能來解決已知問題。我們相信，我們正走在正確的軌道上，福特有著非常明確、不可談判的使命，即提供一流的品質。

I'll close with this. The remaking of Ford is not without growing pains, but it's unlocking opportunity to serve our customers and grow in ways we never thought possible. My confidence comes from the fact that we have built a world-class team, and we are executing a compelling strategy.

我將以此結束。福特的重塑並非沒有成長的煩惱，但它釋放了服務客戶的機會，並以我們從未想過的方式成長。我的信心來自於我們已經建立了一支世界一流的團隊，並且我們正在執行一項引人注目的策略。

No other company has Ford Pro. We intend to fully press that advantage. No company has more compelling product lineup with an attractive mix of ICE and partially and fully electric options for both work and retail customers.

沒有其他公司擁有福特 Pro。我們打算充分發揮這項優勢。沒有一家公司擁有更引人注目的產品陣容，為工作和零售客戶提供有吸引力的內燃機以及部分和全電動選項的組合。

We also know we have a lot to prove. We look forward to proving our EV strategy out. That has become more realistic and sharpened by the tough environment. Thankfully, we scaled years ago, and we are confident we can reduce the losses and sustain a profitable business in the future with everything we've known.

我們也知道我們還有很多東西需要證明。我們期待證明我們的電動車戰略。艱難的環境使這一點變得更加現實和尖銳。值得慶幸的是，我們幾年前就擴大了規模，我們有信心利用我們所知道的一切，在未來減少損失並維持盈利的業務。

We look forward to proving that we can be profitable on smaller vehicles as well, not just on EVs, but across all of our powertrain choices. It's time to prove our recent quality gains are repeatable and will flow to the bottom line. Plenty of work ahead but the direction is crystal clear to us. We are building a high-growth, high-margin, more capital-efficient and more durable Ford.

我們期待證明，我們也可以在小型車輛上獲利，不僅僅是電動車，而是在我們所有的動力系統選擇上。是時候證明我們最近的品質進步是可重複的，並且會轉化為利潤。未來還有大量工作要做，但方向對我們來說非常明確。我們正在打造一個高成長、高利潤、資本效率更高、更耐用的福特汽車。

John?

約翰？

Thanks, Jim. And I want to thank the entire Ford team for their hard work and continued focus on executing our Ford+ strategy. And more importantly, we are working aggressively to remake Ford into a higher-growth, higher-margin and more durable business as you said, and frankly, a higher-performing company. Our automotive business is solid and consistently generating strong free cash flow, which is a core ingredient to drive total shareholder returns over time.

謝謝，吉姆。我要感謝整個福特團隊的辛勤工作以及對執行我們的福特+策略的持續關注。更重要的是，我們正在積極努力，將福特打造成一家成長更快、利潤更高、更持久的企業，正如您所說，坦白說，是一家業績更高的公司。我們的汽車業務穩健，並持續產生強勁的自由現金流，這是隨著時間的推移推動股東總回報的核心要素。

Now in the quarter, we generated nearly $48 billion in revenue with growth of 6%. Wholesales were up 2% as our refreshed and compelling product line gave our retail and commercial customers unmatched freedom of choice. The quarter benefited from record Transit wholesales, as well as the completion of our all-new F-150 launch, including drawdown of the inventory we had held at the end of the first quarter.

本季度，我們的營收接近 480 億美元，成長 6%。由於我們更新且引人注目的產品線為我們的零售和商業客戶提供了無與倫比的選擇自由，批發銷售額增長了 2%。該季度受益於創紀錄的 Transit 批發量，以及我們全新 F-150 發布的完成，包括我們在第一季末持有的庫存的減少。

We delivered $2.8 billion in adjusted EBIT with a margin of 5.8% as higher costs were partially offset by the continued strength in Pro. Costs were up year over year, primarily reflecting an increase in warranty reserves, higher new-product-related material costs and higher manufacturing costs.

我們實現了 28 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤，利潤率為 5.8%，因為 Pro 的持續強勢部分抵消了成本上升的影響。成本同比上漲，主要反映了保固準備金的增加、新產品相關材料成本的增加以及製造成本的增加。

Now if you take a step back and look at our sequential performance, Q2 saw revenue growth of 12% on a 9% increase in wholesale sales, driven by a higher truck volume and the strength of our product portfolio. Despite this revenue growth, EBIT was flat, reflecting primarily higher warranty and manufacturing costs related to the inventory, which was driven by seasonality and the high-volume launches.

現在，如果您退後一步看看我們的連續業績，您會發現，在卡車銷量增加和產品組合實力增強的推動下，第二季度收入增長了 12%，批發銷售額增長了 9%。儘管收入成長，但息稅前利潤持平，這主要反映了與庫存相關的保固和製造成本上升，這是由季節性和大量發布推動的。

We remain on track to deliver 2 billion of material manufacturing and freight efficiencies over the full year, which will partially offset higher labor and product refresh costs. We are seeing emerging headwinds in warranty and inflationary pressures in Turkey, and we are working to mitigate these costs.

我們仍有望在全年實現 20 億的材料製造和貨運效率，這將部分抵消更高的勞動力和產品更新成本。我們看到土耳其在保固和通膨壓力方面出現了新的阻力，我們正在努力減輕這些成本。

Now I have more confidence in today's business than ever. Our strong global product lineup is differentiated and driving continued top-line growth. And we're slowly but surely improving our industrial system and shedding behaviors that have held us back in the past. We're on track to deliver our full-year guidance, and we are generating stronger and more consistent cash flow than just a few years ago -- evidence that our Ford+ plan is working.

現在我對今天的生意比以往任何時候都更有信心。我們強大的全球產品陣容具有差異化，並推動營收持續成長。我們正在緩慢但堅定地改善我們的工業體系，並擺脫過去阻礙我們發展的行為。我們有望實現全年指導，我們正在產生比幾年前更強勁、更穩定的現金流——這證明我們的福特+計劃正在發揮作用。

Adjusted free cash flow was $3.2 billion in the quarter and $2.8 billion through the first half, resulting in a cash conversion rate of 51%. Our $1 billion increase to adjusted free cash flow guidance for the year underscores our growing confidence in the business.

本季調整後自由現金流為 32 億美元，上半年調整後自由現金流為 28 億美元，現金轉換率為 51%。我們今年調整後的自由現金流指引增加了 10 億美元，突顯了我們對業務的信心不斷增強。

Our balance sheet remains strong, with close to $27 billion in cash and $45 billion in liquidity, providing considerable flexibility and a very dynamic environment. I'm also pleased to announce that we declared our third-quarter regular dividend of $0.15 per share payable on September 3 to shareholders of record on August 7.

我們的資產負債表仍然強勁，擁有近 270 億美元的現金和 450 億美元的流動性，提供了相當大的靈活性和非常活躍的環境。我還很高興地宣布，我們宣布將於 9 月 3 日向 8 月 7 日登記在冊的股東派發每股 0.15 美元的第三季度定期股息。

Now let me spend a few minutes summarizing the financial performance of our customer-focused segments and highlight how each of them is driving Ford+ in making our business stronger. Ford Pro delivered a 9% increase in revenue on a 3% increase in wholesales. The segment has consistently delivered year-over-year revenue growth each quarter since we re-segmented our businesses. EBIT was a solid $2.6 billion with a healthy margin of over 15%, reflecting increased Super Duty and Transit volume that are both capacity-constrained, along with higher net pricing.

現在，讓我花幾分鐘總結一下我們以客戶為中心的細分市場的財務業績，並重點介紹每個細分市場如何推動福特+使我們的業務變得更加強大。 Ford Pro 的收入成長了 9%，批發量成長了 3%。自從我們重新細分業務以來，該部門每季的營收都持續實現年比成​​長。息稅前利潤為 26 億美元，利潤率超過 15%，反映了受運力限制的 Super Duty 和 Transit 運輸量的增加以及更高的淨定價。

Ford Pro is the prototype for sticky, high-margin, non-cyclical revenue. Pro's results this quarter continued to demonstrate consistency, predictability, and resiliency of this higher margin growth business.

福特 Pro 是黏性、高利潤、非週期性收入的原型。 Pro 本季的業績繼續證明了這一利潤率較高的成長業務的一致性、可預測性和彈性。

Ford Model e generated a loss of $1.1 billion, as continued industry pricing pressures and wholesale declines of 23% more than offset lower costs. Our team's intense focus on cost delivered about $400 million in savings to the bottom line in the quarter. Key factors included reductions in material costs and through battery economics and lower engineering. This builds on the cost reductions we have achieved since the launch of our first-generation products, helping to improve our profit outlook as we head into '25.

福特 Model e 虧損 11 億美元，持續的產業定價壓力和 23% 的批發量下降抵消了成本下降的影響。我們團隊對成本的高度關注為本季的利潤節省了約 4 億美元。關鍵因素包括材料成本的降低以及電池經濟性和工程成本的降低。這是我們自推出第一代產品以來實現的成本降低的基礎，有助於改善我們進入 25 世紀的利潤前景。

Ford Blue revenue grew by 7% on a 3% increase in wholesales, led by growth in trucks and strong pricing. Wholesales were impacted by the launch of the Explorer as we ended the quarter with about 21,000 vehicles in inventory for quality checks. EBIT of $1.2 billion and a margin of 4.4% were both down year over year mostly driven by higher warranty. Once again, Blue was profitable in every region.

在卡車成長和強勁定價的帶動下，福特藍的收入成長了 7%，批發量成長了 3%。批發受到 Explorer 推出的影響，本季末我們有約 21,000 輛汽車庫存用於品質檢查。息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 為 12 億美元，利潤率為 4.4%，均較去年同期下降，主要原因是保固期提高。 Blue 再次在每個地區實現了盈利。

Our hybrid sales, [up] 34% in the quarter continued to shine, and our global hybrid mix is now approaching 9%, up over 2 points year over year with more products on the way. Ford Credit generated [EBT] of $343 million, down slightly year over year. As expected, auction values declined by 9% and lease return rates continued to normalize from historic lows. Credit losses and insurance losses were also higher, but mostly offset by an improvement in financing margin.

我們的混合動力產品銷量在本季度增長了 34%，繼續表現出色，我們的全球混合動力產品銷量目前已接近 9%，同比增長超過 2 個百分點，更多產品正在上市。福特信貸產生的 [EBT] 為 3.43 億美元，較去年同期略有下降。正如預期的那樣，拍賣價格下降了 9%，租賃回報率繼續從歷史低點恢復正常。信貸損失和保險損失也有所增加，但大部分被融資利潤率的改善所抵銷。

We continue to originate a high-quality book with US retail and lease FICO scores, again exceeding 750 for the quarter. Our exposure to EV residual risk is low, as EVs represent less than 5% of our lease portfolio.

我們繼續創作一本高品質的圖書，其美國零售和租賃 FICO 評分在本季度再次超過 750。我們面臨的電動車殘餘風險較低，因為電動車占我們租賃組合的比例不到 5%。

So now let me turn to our outlook. As I referenced earlier, we continue to expect full-year company adjusted EBIT in the range of $10 billion to $12 billion. In general, we see supply and demand for vehicles in balance and industry dynamics, including market equations for our four segments, are playing out similar to what we forecast at the beginning of the year.

現在讓我談談我們的前景。正如我之前提到的，我們仍然預計公司全年調整後息稅前利潤將在 100 億美元至 120 億美元之間。整體而言，我們認為汽車的供需處於平衡狀態，產業動態（包括我們四個細分市場的市場方程式）的情況與我們年初的預測類似。

We are increasing our adjusted free cash flow guidance by $1 billion to $7.5 billion to $8.5 billion, supported by strong earnings and lower-than-planned CapEx. We are keeping our CapEx target range of $8 billion to $9 billion and are focused on delivering at the low end.

在強勁的盈利和低於計劃的資本支出的支持下，我們將調整後的自由現金流指引提高了 10 億美元至 75 億美元至 85 億美元。我們將資本支出目標維持在 80 億至 90 億美元之間，並專注於低端交付。

Our outlook for the year assumes a flat to slightly higher start in both US and Europe. Our planning assumption for the US is 16 million to 16.5 million units; full year of customer demand for our all-new Super Duty, contributing to better market factors for Ford Pro; lower industry pricing of roughly 2%, driven by higher incentive spending as we move through the second half of this year. For Ford, we expect this to be partially offset by top-line growth from the launch of our new products, warranty reserve increases from software, higher repair costs, and FSAs.

我們對今年的展望假設美國和歐洲的開局持平或略有上升。我們對美國的規劃假設是 1,600 萬到 1,650 萬台；全年顧客對全新 Super Duty 的需求，為 Ford Pro 帶來更好的市場因素；受今年下半年激勵性支出增加的推動，產業定價下降約 2%。對福特來說，我們預計這將被新產品推出帶來的營收成長、軟體保固儲備增加、更高的維修成本和 FSA 所部分抵銷。

Our segment outlook anticipates continued Ford Pro strength, and we are increasing our EBIT range to $9 billion to $10 billion, reflecting further growth and favorable mix, partially offset by moderated pricing. As expected, losses in the range of $5 billion to $5.5 billion for Model e, driven by continued pricing pressure and investments in new vehicles.

我們的細分市場前景預計福特 Pro 將繼續保持強勢，我們將息稅前利潤範圍提高到 90 億至 100 億美元，反映出進一步的成長和有利的組合，但部分被適度的定價所抵消。如預期，由於持續的定價壓力和新車投資，Model e 的損失將在 50 億至 55 億美元之間。

And for Ford Blue, we are trimming our EBIT range to $6 billion to $6.5 billion, reflecting a balanced market equation and higher warranty. We expect Blue's profit trajectory to significantly improve in the second half, reflecting higher volume with the F-150, Explorer, and Ranger launches that we've just recently completed and our recent capacity expansion on Bronco. And we expect Ford Credit's EBT to be about $1.5 billion, double-digit growth year over year.

對於福特藍，我們將息稅前利潤範圍削減至 60 億至 65 億美元，反映了平衡的市場方程式和更高的保固。我們預計 Blue 下半年的利潤軌跡將顯著改善，這反映出我們最近剛完成的 F-150、Explorer 和 Ranger 發布以及最近 Bronco 產能擴張的銷量增加。我們預計福特信貸的 EBT 約為 15 億美元，比去年同期成長兩位數。

Now our performance this quarter demonstrates the positive progress on our Ford+ plan. We're disciplined with capital, and we have the right portfolio of products, and we are delivering consistent cash generation to reward our shareholders. We are relentlessly seeking out new ways to make our business better and remain focused on driving improvements in both quality and cost.

現在，我們本季的業績顯示我們的福特+計畫取得了積極進展。我們遵守資本紀律，擁有正確的產品組合，我們正在提供持續的現金產生來回報我們的股東。我們不斷尋找新的方法來改善我們的業務，並繼續專注於推動品質和成本的改進。

So that wraps up my prepared remarks. We have the balance of time for questions. Thank you.

我準備好的發言就到此結束。我們有足夠的時間提問。謝謝。

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

我們現在開始問答環節。 （操作員說明）

Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley.

亞當‧喬納斯，摩根士丹利。

Hey, everybody. Jim, you said that Ford is a different company from what it was three years ago, but stock market really doesn't seem to agree with you at all on that. Stock is down about 10% after hours -- around $12 of share -- and my team just ran the numbers. Ford ranks 494 out of 500 companies in the S&P on PE.

嘿，大家。吉姆，你說福特與三年前相比是一家不同的公司，但股市似乎根本不同意你的觀點。盤後股價下跌約 10%——約 12 美元——我的團隊剛剛計算了數字。福特在標準普爾 PE 指數 500 家公司中排名第 494 位。

Jim, my first question is, do you think Ford's stock is good value.

吉姆，我的第一個問題是，你認為福特的股票有價值嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Then why does your Board refuse to authorize a share buyback? And people on this call, I think they understand the reason -- like the family elements. But in your opinion, if you're telling me the stock's a good value and it's like the bottom 1 percentile of the S&P, what's the plausible reason why -- do you really think you have better uses of capital than that?

那為什麼你們的董事會拒絕授權股票回購呢？我想參加這次電話會議的人都明白其中的原因──例如家庭因素。但在你看來，如果你告訴我這隻股票的價值很高，而且它就像標準普爾指數中排名最低的1 個百分點，那麼合理的原因是什麼- 你真的認為你有比這更好的資本用途嗎？

Yes, we do. And I have to tell you that it's hard for people to understand those possible uses of capital, but we have so many exciting businesses to invest in. And Pro is a great example.

是的，我們願意。我必須告訴你，人們很難理解資本的這些可能用途，但我們有很多令人興奮的業務可供投資。

I'm not going to get into specifics, Adam, but I think people will understand over time how many exciting opportunities there are for Ford. And I'm not just referring to vehicles; I'm referring to non-vehicle activities.

亞當，我不會透露具體細節，但我認為隨著時間的推移，人們會明白福特有多少令人興奮的機會。我指的不僅僅是車輛；我指的是車輛。我指的是非車輛活動。

We have 27,000 service bays. There's lots of opportunities. And as I said, when you look at Ford Pro, just deep dive on that one -- and I'm so glad you asked this question, by the way. So Ford Pro is a very, very high percentage of our company's profit. Just look at the ratio between the overall company's EBIT and Pro and our guidance. And then think about our aftersales business, only 24% of our revenue comes from Pro-related vehicles.

我們有 27,000 個服務站。有很多機會。正如我所說，當你看到福特 Pro 時，只需深入研究一下——順便說一句，我很高興你問了這個問題。所以福特 Pro 在我們公司利潤中所佔的比例非常非常高。只要看看整個公司的息稅前利潤和專業利潤與我們的指導之間的比率。再想想我們的售後業務，我們只有24%的收入來自Pro相關車輛。

And we could spend a lot of time talking about this opportunity, but that's why I highlighted in my comments, there are so many places for us to grow Pro on the physical services. There are like 35% margin, but it's hard stuff, right? It's like bays and technicians and a lot of work.

我們可以花很多時間討論這個機會，但這就是為什麼我在評論中強調，我們在實體服務上有很多地方可以發展 Pro。利潤率大概有 35%，但這很難，對吧？這就像海灣和技術人員以及大量的工作。

We have very exciting electrical architecture investments that we have to make in our future that will really change our ICE vehicles and their revenue potential, because that revenue won't be just when we sell the vehicle. It will be over time, which we're seeing with Pro already.

我們在未來必須進行非常令人興奮的電氣架構投資，這將真正改變我們的內燃機汽車及其收入潛力，因為收入不僅在我們銷售車輛時產生。隨著時間的推移，這將會成為現實，我們已經在 Pro 中看到了這一點。

So I don't want to belabor the point. I'll just tell you, there are plenty of opportunities. Anything else?

所以我不想贅述這一點。我只是告訴你，機會很多。還要別的嗎？

Just a follow-up on skunkworks. Your team has made a number of visits to China over the last couple of years, including, I think, just a couple of months back. I believe you were there. What are you learning from these trips?

只是臭鼬工廠的後續行動。您的團隊在過去幾年中多次訪問中國，我認為包括幾個月前。我相信你當時就在那裡。您從這些旅行中學到了什麼？

And specifically, you mentioned China, along with Tesla, the cost benchmark. But do you think Ford can bring to market a low-cost EV profitably without help from your partners in China? Or is China part of the solution? And if China is part of the solution, then what are you going to do about it?

具體來說，您提到了中國以及特斯拉作為成本基準。但您認為福特能夠在沒有中國合作夥伴幫助的情況下將低成本電動車推向市場並實現盈利嗎？或者說中國是解決方案的一部分？如果中國是解決方案的一部分，那麼您將採取什麼措施？

Yeah, great question and an important question for any OEM as the EV market evolves here. Look, we made the bet on CATL many years ago. It was a very important bet for our company to localize LFP cells in North America -- happened to be in Michigan.

是的，隨著電動車市場的發展，這對任何 OEM 來說都是一個很好的問題，也是一個重要的問題。你看，我們很多年前就押注在寧德時代。對於我們公司來說，在北美（恰好在密西根州）本地化 LFP 電池是一個非常重要的賭注。

We're two years into that project. That is a signature partnership. CATL is the largest battery maker in the world, and they lead iron phosphate cost and reliability. That is a signature partnership that we launched many years ago that we've been working hard on, and Marshall's on track.

我們已經開展此計畫兩年了。這是一種標誌性的合作關係。 CATL是全球最大的電池製造商，他們在磷酸鐵成本和可靠性方面處於領先地位。這是我們多年前啟動的標誌性合作夥伴關係，我們一直在努力，而馬歇爾正在走上正軌。

Look, what Volkswagen is doing with XPENG and many others who are kind of taking a Chinese low-cost platform and using that, that's not our strategy. Our partnership strategy will be on the component side, going deep into the supply chain for IP that is critical and unique. I'm not going to get into specifics, but CATL is one example.

看，大眾汽車與小鵬汽車和許多其他採用中國低成本平台並使用它的公司所做的事情，這不是我們的策略。我們的合作夥伴策略將在組件方面，深入關鍵且獨特的智慧財產權供應鏈。我不打算詳細說明，但寧德時代就是一個例子。

And we're going to learn how to do that at the company. We believe that this is essential know-how for the company, because the true fitness test for EV profitability will be on these small vehicles. And we have learned from our experience with Mazda and Kia and many others that we have to have this know-how in the company, because it applies across all of our vehicles, not just EVs. And the lowest cost is the most important capability.

我們將在公司學習如何做到這一點。我們相信，這對公司來說是至關重要的專業知識，因為電動車盈利能力的真正適應性測試將在這些小型車輛上進行。我們從馬自達、起亞和許多其他公司的經驗中了解到，我們公司必須擁有這種專業知識，因為它適用於我們所有的車輛，而不僅僅是電動車。而最低的成本就是最重要的能力。

We believe that many of our competitors will turn to their Chinese either independent companies or partners, to basically use their platform globally. We learned a lot, not just from China, but from MEB. We've been scaling MEB. We know the cost of Volkswagen. They're one of the leaders in scale.

我們相信，我們的許多競爭對手將轉向他們的中國獨立公司或合作夥伴，基本上在全球範圍內使用他們的平台。我們不僅從中國學到了很多東西，還從 MEB 學到了很多東西。我們一直在擴展 MEB。我們知道大眾汽車的成本。他們是規模上的領導者之一。

And what we found in that trip and subsequent trips to China is that we have a very competitive battery with CATL, but many of the Chinese players in the lower cost have very affordable batteries, but they don't have the most efficient design outside of the battery on the other EV components.

我們在那次中國之行和隨後的中國之行中發現，我們擁有與寧德時代非常有競爭力的電池，但許多成本較低的中國玩家擁有非常實惠的電池，但他們沒有除了其他國家之外最高效的設計。

And our team -- the skunkworks team -- we might as well call it a big team now, because it's no longer skunkworks, we're betting on them as our affordable platform. They have really designed breakthrough EV components with our own design that we think are better and cheaper. And we have a very competitive battery localized with the IRA benefit.

我們的團隊——skunkworks 團隊——我們現在不妨稱之為一個大團隊，因為它不再是skunkworks，我們把賭注押在它們作為我們負擔得起的平台上。他們確實用我們自己的設計設計了突破性的電動車組件，我們認為這些組件更好、更便宜。我們擁有非常有競爭力的本地化電池，並享有 IRA 福利。

And the partnership discussion, we think, will largely put out in larger vehicles. We think that's where the big partnership opportunity really lies. In the commercial vehicles that I talked about, I'm not -- we have nothing to say right now, but this is -- why is the partnership so important? Because the bigger vehicles have this kind of inverted cost, and the partners allow you to be more capital-efficient and have better returns. And that's why we think that the partnerships on larger vehicles will play out as vibrantly as the affordable vehicles.

我們認為，合作夥伴關係的討論將主要針對大型車輛。我們認為這才是巨大的合作機會真正所在。在我談到的商用車方面，我不是——我們現在沒什麼好說的，但這是——為什麼合作關係如此重要？因為較大的車輛具有這種反向成本，而合作夥伴可以讓您的資本效率更高並獲得更好的回報。這就是為什麼我們認為大型車輛的合作關係將像經濟型車輛一樣充滿活力。

Bruno Dossena, Wolfe Research.

布魯諾多塞納，沃爾夫研究中心。

Yeah. Thank you for taking the questions. I was wondering if you could just contextualize what, fundamentally within the organization, you think is leading to these persistent warranty issues. And I realize partly it's because it was on a prior industrial system. But just given how frequently the surprise warranty issues keep popping up, how do you have visibility? Or how can investors really build confidence in an earnings trajectory when every year the surprise warranty issues keep happening? Thanks.

是的。感謝您提出問題。我想知道您是否可以從根本上了解您認為導致這些持續保固問題的組織內部的情況。我意識到部分原因是它是在以前的工業系統上。但考慮到令人驚訝的保固問題不斷出現的頻率，您如何獲得可見性？或者，當每年意外的保固問題不斷發生時，投資人如何真正建立對獲利軌跡的信心？謝謝。

Thank you. I think the most important evidence -- the J.D. Power's IQS, that's a really big point of evidence for everyone. Our internal data, by the way, had been saying that for quite some time. It's now verified. I think that is clearly cutting the initial quality defects to a fully competitive rate, where we're leading some segments will clearly bring our warranty down over time.

謝謝。我認為最重要的證據——J.D. Power 的 IQS，這對每個人來說都是非常重要的證據。順便說一句，我們的內部數據已經說明這一點已經有一段時間了。現在已經驗證了。我認為這顯然是將初始品質缺陷減少到完全有競爭力的水平，我們在某些​​領域處於領先地位，隨著時間的推移，我們的保固顯然會降低。

But as you said, it takes time. You've got to launch vehicles. You've got to get in the industrial system and make sustainable changes.

但正如你所說，這需要時間。你必鬚髮射車輛。你必須進入工業體系並做出永續的改變。

The other one I would say is -- as painful it is quarter after quarter to have all these great launches, we do not release them until we're happy with the quality and that we've done all the testing. And it makes our quarters lumpy, and it's challenging. But it will reduce warranty over time.

我要說的另一個問題是，每個季度推出所有這些出色的產品都是令人痛苦的，直到我們對品質感到滿意並且完成了所有測試後，我們才會發布它們。這讓我們的宿舍變得崎嶇不平，充滿挑戰。但隨著時間的推移，它會減少保固。

When you look at the root causes for these issues -- and I can go through the hundreds that we go through -- it's very clear that these are issues, many of which we could have caught at launch. And that is what's happening now at Ford. We have to go through all these launches to find these. And over time, we're confident they come down.

當你審視這些問題的根本原因時——我可以列出我們遇到的數百個問題——很明顯，這些問題都是我們在發佈時就可以發現的。這就是福特現在正在發生的事情。我們必須經歷所有這些發射才能找到這些。隨著時間的推移，我們相信它們會下降。

The other thing we maybe made it more difficult in a way -- but better for the company fitness-wise -- is we put a lot of new technology in our vehicles. And that new technology is difficult for the dealers to diagnose when customers come in and say something is wrong with my SYNC system.

另一件可能在某種程度上讓事情變得更加困難的事情——但對公司的健康而言更好——是我們在我們的車輛中加入了許多新技術。當客戶進來並說我的 SYNC 系統出現問題時，經銷商很難診斷新技術。

They replace modules unnecessarily, et cetera, and that hits our warranty reserves. What we have found, though, is that this kind of fixing is different than mechanical fixes where that OTA capability redirected to these defects can really reduce our cost outlays for the warranty -- against the warranty reserves. And we're working all of those cost curves every day for each of our models.

他們不必要地更換模組等等，這會影響我們的保固儲備。但我們發現，這種修復與機械修復不同，機械修復將 OTA 功能重新導向到這些缺陷確實可以減少我們的保固成本支出（相對於保固儲備金）。我們每天都在為每個模型研究所有這些成本曲線。

John, anything to add?

約翰，有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah. I think that there is the lag that you're going to have between the quality improving and the warranty run rates improving. And so the first step, as Jim said, is the quality improving, and we're seeing that in the physicals now. And that lag -- 12 to 18 months -- and we should start to see the warranty coming in.

是的。我認為品質提高和保固運行率提高之間存在滯後。因此，正如吉姆所說，第一步是提高質量，我們現在在體檢中看到了這一點。有了這個延遲——12 到 18 個月——我們應該開始看到保固期的到來。

On the prior models, the majority of what's coming through our FSAs, we're doing things to fix those quicker, get out in front of them, reduce the impact of them, but we're working that every day. It's an issue that the team is focused on. And the encouragement is that the quality is improving, and that is the most important thing for the future of the business and the longer run rate of the business.

在之前的型號上，大部分問題都是透過我們的 FSA 解決的，我們正在採取措施更快地解決這些問題，走在它們前面，減少它們的影響，但我們每天都在努力。這是團隊重點關注的問題。令人鼓舞的是品質正在提高，這對於業務的未來和業務的長期運行率來說是最重要的。

What we won't do at Ford is reduce our actual cash expense at the expense of our customers. We will fix these problems. We will do the right thing. I don't care if it costs [rental] cars or whatever; we want to turn these quality issues into positives for our customer experience.

在福特，我們不會以犧牲客戶利益為代價來減少實際現金支出。我們將解決這些問題。我們會做正確的事。我不在乎它是否需要[租賃]汽車或其他什麼費用；我們希望將這些品質問題轉化為改善客戶體驗的正面因素。

Thank you. So when we step back, and I think this touches on Adam's skunkworks questions. But when you compare Ford now to history, earnings are now significantly higher. But the capital base has expanded such that returns really haven't improved. And this isn't just Ford; this is most western automakers.

謝謝。因此，當我們退後一步時，我認為這觸及了亞當的臭鼬工廠問題。但當你將福特現在與歷史進行比較時，你會發現現在的利潤要高得多。但資本基礎已經擴大，報酬率其實並沒有改善。這不僅僅是福特；還有福特。這是大多數西方汽車製造商的情況。

The earnings part of the equation is only partly in your control, but the structural costs are. So how are you thinking about the trajectory of structural costs from here, even simply are they going up or down?

等式中的收益部分只能部分由您控制，但結構成本卻可以。那麼，您如何看待結構性成本從現在開始的軌跡，即使只是上升還是下降？

And B, given this is a similar dynamic for a lot of automakers, and so many traditional automakers are investing billions in R&D, really trying to achieve the same thing with respect to EVs, making an affordable EV at scale to compete with Tesla and Chinese OEMs, why do you think the legacy OEMs are all doing this by themselves, and why aren't there more partnerships and things?

B，考慮到許多汽車製造商都面臨著類似的動態，而且許多傳統汽車製造商正在研發數十億美元，真正試圖在電動車方面實現同樣的目標，大規模生產價格實惠的電動車，以與特斯拉和中國競爭原始設備製造商，您認為為什麼傳統原始設備製造商都在自己做這件事，為什麼沒有更多的合作夥伴和事情？

Well, I would say that you have to think about how you're going to fundamentally change the development process. I think that's the core thing. It's not necessarily just doing it with somebody else. Sure, we're looking to be as capital efficient as possible, bring partnerships in for capital, but you can do that on components. And you can do that in other ways as well.

好吧，我想說你必須考慮如何從根本上改變開發流程。我認為這是核心的事情。這不一定只是和別人一起做。當然，我們希望盡可能提高資本效率，引入合作夥伴以獲得資本，但你可以在組件上做到這一點。您也可以透過其他方式做到這一點。

And we know -- and we've done a lot of work understanding what has kept this industry kind of in that penalty box that Adam was talking about, as you mentioned. We're not capital-efficient. We're lower margin. We don't grow enough, and we're not resilient.

我們知道，正如你所提到的，我們已經做了很多工作來了解是什麼讓這個行業陷入了亞當所說的懲罰框。我們的資本效率不高。我們的利潤率較低。我們成長得還不夠，我們的彈性也不夠。

It's a very cyclical business. And we're working to change that. We've walked through the areas that we're doing and attacking to improve those key areas.

這是一個週期性很強的業務。我們正在努力改變這一點。我們已經回顧了我們正在做和正在努力改進這些關鍵領域的領域。

But it's really about the efficiency of the design, and the skunkworks team is doing something very different. That team is unique for a traditional OEM -- the talent on that team. They're doing an agile waterfall systems integrated design process, which no other global OEM has done -- a traditional OEM.

但這實際上關係到設計的效率，而 Skunkworks 團隊正在做一些非常不同的事情。該團隊對於傳統 OEM 來說是獨一無二的——該團隊中的人才。他們正在實施敏捷的瀑布系統整合設計流程，這是其他全球 OEM（傳統 OEM）從未做過的。

And we're really working that to be focused on what can happen from a tech standpoint as well. And that vertical integration really helps us drive to those lowest costs. And we're finding that there's ways to be more efficient than -- in many ways, than some of the Chinese by incorporating the technology that the team is able to bring forward and leveraging the know-how that they've had from the last products that they've put forward.

我們確實正在努力關注從技術角度來看可能發生的事情。這種垂直整合確實有助於我們達到最低成本。我們發現，透過整合團隊能夠提出的技術並利用他們過去所擁有的專業知識，有很多方法可以比某些中國人更有效率。

So I think there's a lot of opportunity for us with that team and the talent and the change in the process that's not only going to show up when we get to our affordable EVs that are going to come from them, but it's also important to understand that if you don't have that transfer function Jim talked about, the entire company isn't going to improve. And by doing it within the company with that team, we have a much higher probability of that transfer function being successful.

因此，我認為我們的團隊和人才以及流程的變化給我們帶來了很多機會，這些機會不僅會在我們推出價格實惠的電動車時顯現出來，而且了解這一點也很重要如果你沒有吉姆談到的轉移功能，整個公司就不會進步。透過在公司內部與該團隊一起執行此操作，我們的轉移功能成功的可能性會更高。

Yes. And I would just emphasize that the ambition at Ford for partnering on EVs is record-level high. We're not going to make any announcements in earnings call, but this is absolutely a flip-the-script moment for our company.

是的。我想強調的是，福特在電動車領域的合作雄心達到了歷史最高水準。我們不會在財報電話會議上發布任何公告，但這對我們公司來說絕對是一個翻轉劇本的時刻。

We have done partnerships like Volkswagen. We have learned how to be successful with the one-ton Transit that includes an electric vehicle. We really see that opportunity in front of us. But we are not going to partner to the level where we delegate our future, and the future fitness for cost competitiveness outside the company. We need -- and if we have a partner, we have to have that transfer function that John mentioned.

我們已經建立了像大眾汽車這樣的合作關係。我們已經了解如何成功使用包括電動車在內的一噸級 Transit。我們確實看到了擺在我們面前的機會。但我們不會將我們的未來以及未來的成本競爭力的適合度委託給公司外部的合作夥伴。我們需要－如果我們有合作夥伴，我們必須擁有約翰提到的傳遞函數。

I would only say that we need, as an industry, to start focusing equally on the one-time cost investment in the electrical architectures and the transition to digital products. Now the integrated services that we're finding, we have 765,000 paid subscriptions. They were different than our competitors who just basically do it for infotainment.

我只想說，作為一個行業，我們需要開始同等關注電氣架構的一次性成本投資和向數位產品的過渡。現在我們發現的綜合服務有 765,000 個付費訂閱。他們與我們的競爭對手不同，我們的競爭對手基本上只是為了資訊娛樂而做。

We are basically -- productivity on Pro as well as BlueCruise. And to take that to the next level, make that business supercharged, we need to invest heavily in electric architectures, not just on our EVs, but also in our ICE vehicles and hybrid vehicles.

我們基本上是 Pro 和 BlueCruise 上的生產力。為了將其提升到一個新的水平，使該業務變得更加強大，我們需要大力投資電動架構，不僅是我們的電動車，還包括我們的內燃機汽車和混合動力汽車。

And that will be a one-time investment. And the benefit of that was what I was trying to highlight in my script, which is when the economy turns down, we still have those subscriptions. Our service business, customers turn to that even more in a downturn. Because they keep their vehicles longer, they have to do more maintenance. These are ways to kind of de-risk our exposure to economic cycles.

這將是一項一次性投資。這樣做的好處就是我在劇本中試圖強調的，那就是當經濟衰退時，我們仍然有這些訂閱。我們的服務業務，在經濟低迷時期，客戶會更加關注這一點。因為他們的車輛使用時間更長，所以他們必須進行更多的維護。這些都是降低經濟週期風險的方法。

And we have to make OTA, the updated IVI system, the integrated services team, both B2C and B2B, our electric architectures -- these are all basic enablers that go beyond EVs. And the industry is going through that transformation, too. And I believe Ford is in advance of others, because we have more complicated platforms than Rivian and Tesla and many of the other OEMs.

我們必須打造 OTA、更新的 IVI 系統、整合服務團隊、B2C 和 B2B、我們的電動架構——這些都是超越電動車的基本推動因素。該行業也正在經歷這種轉變。我相信福特領先其他公司，因為我們擁有比 Rivian 和特斯拉以及許多其他 OEM 更複雜的平台。

And because of that, we also have more scale. We have more complexity, but we have more scale. And I think that transition and kind of structural change in the industry is as big as the EV change. We're going to get to $1 billion of revenue, we think, next year on software. I wouldn't have thought of that two -- three years ago.

正因為如此，我們也擁有了更大的規模。我們的複雜性更高，但規模更大。我認為產業的轉型和結構變化與電動車的變化一樣大。我們認為明年軟體收入將達到 10 億美元。兩三年前我不會想到這一點。

John Murphy, Bank of America.

約翰‧墨菲，美國銀行。

Good evening, everybody. Just to take it back to more sort of the core of the business, Jim, I just wanted to go through some numbers or your take on the Ontario Super Duty capacity add. Obviously, it's a big step-up in capacity for the Super Duty -- a 100,000 units. It seems like current demand would certainly soak that up or absorb that reasonably easily, but I'm just curious if you think we might be hitting sort of a peak in this truck.

晚上好大家。只是為了回到業務的核心，吉姆，我只是想了解一些數字或您對安大略省超級關稅容量增加的看法。顯然，這對 Super Duty 的產能來說是一個巨大的提升——達到 100,000 輛。看來當前的需求肯定會相當容易吸收或吸收，但我只是好奇你是否認為我們可能會在這輛卡車上達到某種頂峰。

What's your view on the ability to kind of sustain these high levels of demand and sell-through? How should we think about incremental margins on that? Because it seems like the [$3 billion] investment might have a payback of less than 2 years and then spin out a lot of cash real quickly. So (multiple speakers) a really, really good investment. So I was just wondering if you could talk about that and then also what kind of powertrains those trucks will have.

您對維持如此高水準的需求和銷售的能力有何看法？我們該如何考慮這方面的增量利潤？因為看起來 [30 億美元] 的投資可能會在不到 2 年的時間內得到回報，然後很快就可以產生大量現金。所以（多個發言者）這是一項非常非常好的投資。所以我只是想知道你是否可以談談這個問題以及這些卡車將擁有什麼樣的動力系統。

Yes. Thank you. So powertrain-wise, it will be a diverse powertrain. Multi-energy platform, we will -- I'm not going to get into specifics, but you can imagine what we've done with F-150 and Transit van. We have gone to -- and all of our commercial vehicles, a multi-energy platform. So we will offer customers the choice that we think no other competitor will have. And we believe we'll be a first mover, if not the first mover in multi-energy Super Duty.

是的。謝謝。因此，就動力系統而言，它將是一個多樣化的動力系統。多能源平台，我們將—我不會透露具體細節，但你可以想像我們用 F-150 和 Transit van 做了什麼。我們所有的商用車都採用了多能源平台。因此，我們將為客戶提供我們認為其他競爭對手不會有的選擇。我們相信，即使不是多能源超級任務的先驅，我們也將成為先行者。

Look, we saw the $1.2 trillion investment in infrastructure in the Jobs Act. That is coming home. There's a 5G upgrade that's going now. I think it's close to $300 billion of investment. And I think what's -- I'm really glad you asked this question, John, because it's not obvious to people.

看，我們在《就業法案》中看到了 1.2 兆美元的基礎設施投資。那就是回家了。現在正在進行 5G 升級。我認為投資金額接近3000億美元。我認為，約翰，我真的很高興你問了這個問題，因為這對人們來說並不明顯。

The real part of our Super Duty business that has been under constant supply strains is our chassis business. It's about 25% of our entire Super Duty business, but they are not pick-up trucks that people use like what you think in road construction. These are people with bucket trucks doing 5G upgrades, heavy construction, and that is the demand that we have not been able to fill.

我們的 Super Duty 業務中一直面臨持續供應壓力的真正部分是我們的底盤業務。它約占我們整個 Super Duty 業務的 25%，但它們並不是人們在道路建設中使用的皮卡車。這些人開著鬥車進行5G升級、重型施工，這是我們無法滿足的需求。

Ford is -- and I'll give you an example. We dominate ambulance in US. Ambulances tend to use our Super Duty chassis business. The average age of an ambulance in the US is 15 years now. They are all falling apart. We have not been able to service that industry, and now we can with this incremental capacity.

福特是－－我給你舉個例子。我們在美國主導救護車。救護車傾向於使用我們的 Super Duty 底盤業務。目前美國救護車的平均車齡為 15 年。他們都崩潰了。我們以前無法為該行業提供服務，但現在我們可以透過增加產能來服務。

And so it's an aged fleet, the chassis business. It's got a ton of investment tails to it still. And we lead in the industry because of our upfitter in the product. And now we're going to take the lead on the multi-energy part.

因此，底盤業務是一支老化的車隊。它還有大量的投資尾巴。我們在業界處於領先地位是因為我們對產品的改裝。現在我們要在多能源部分發揮領導作用。

That's kind of the story, and it will be a great payback. And we wouldn't be doing it at Ford unless we thought this demand would last for many, many years to come, John.

故事就是這樣，這將是一個巨大的回報。約翰，除非我們認為這種需求會持續很多很多年，否則我們不會在福特這樣做。

Okay. And if I could sneak just one more in, maybe for Cathy, on the used residuals or the residuals at auction. It seems like although down year over year, the last three quarters, they've stabilized and started to improve.

好的。如果我能再偷偷拿一份，也許是為了凱西，在用過的殘品或拍賣會上的殘品上。儘管過去三個季度同比下降，但他們似乎已經穩定並開始改善。

I'm just curious what your outlook is there, and it just seems like the supply is going to remain relatively constrained in the used market or late-model used market. So this might be a good guy, not just for Ford Motor Credit, but for [Ziat] and potentially a lift or support for new vehicle pricing. So just what are your expectations there? And what are you seeing in the market, Cathy?

我只是好奇你的前景如何，二手市場或最新型號二手市場的供應似乎仍然相對有限。因此，這可能是個好人，不僅對福特汽車信貸來說，而且對 [Ziat] 來說也是個好人，並且可能會提高或支持新車定價。那麼您的期望是什麼？凱茜，你在市場上看到了什麼？

Yeah. So we're seeing auction values down about 9% this quarter year over year, but up sequentially about 3%. We're expecting auction values to continue to decline in the second half of this year, and we're also expecting our return rates to increase as well in line with that.

是的。因此，我們看到本季拍賣價值年減約 9%，但環比上漲約 3%。我們預計今年下半年拍賣價值將持續下降，我們也預期我們的回報率也會隨之增加。

Dan Levy, Barclays.

丹·利維，巴克萊銀行。

Hi. Good evening. Thank you for taking the question. Wanted to start first with a question on Pro, where we're seeing these continued strong results. And really, pricing is going -- a lot of the strength.

你好。晚安.感謝您提出問題。首先想問一個關於 Pro 的問題，我們在 Pro 中看到了這些持續強勁的結果。事實上，定價正在上漲——力度很大。

So I understand all the bits about pent-up demand, and that's really helping. There's really a thirst for these products. But maybe you can help give us some color on the sustainability of this pricing, specifically, A, how long is this tail of pent-up demand? B, how much of the pricing is contractual versus -- let's call it -- more spot retail, which would be more subject to the market fluctuations? So any color on the trajectory of pricing in Pro given it's had such a strong run?

因此，我了解有關被壓抑的需求的所有信息，這確實很有幫助。人們確實對這些產品有渴望。但也許你可以幫助我們了解這種定價的可持續性，具體來說，A，被壓抑的需求的尾巴有多長？ B，有多少定價是合約定價，還是更多的現貨零售，後者更容易受到市場波動的影響？那麼，鑑於 Pro 的表現如此強勁，它的定價軌跡有何變化？

Yeah. So when you look at Pro, we've been talking about the fact that the demand/supply imbalance has been great for the top line. It's been running pretty strong, right? No surprise there.

是的。因此，當您查看 Pro 時，我們一直在討論這樣一個事實：供需不平衡對營收來說非常嚴重。它一直運行得相當強勁，對吧？這並不奇怪。

We have been forecasting that we expect, as we move into the '25 model year, that there will be some of the top line coming off. And that's in our guidance. So we understand that over time, that's going to get chipped away at a little bit here and there.

我們一直預測，當我們進入 25 車型年時，我們的收入將會下降。這在我們的指導中。所以我們知道，隨著時間的推移，這種情況將會被一些地方削弱。

But we also believe that there are very underserved segments like chassis that we're going to be able to provide products to, where there will be more price stability as we move forward. So we don't see prices collapsing.

但我們也相信，我們將能夠向底盤等服務水準非常低的細分市場提供產品，隨著我們的前進，這些細分市場的價格將會更加穩定。所以我們不會看到價格暴跌。

Now when you look at our business, about I would say 60% of it or so comes from the fleet, which are negotiated on an annual basis. Those have remained very strong in the last couple of years. I've talked about in the past that we'll start to see what the '25 model year contracts look like as we move through the third quarter.

現在，當你看看我們的業務時，我會說大約 60% 左右來自機隊，這些機隊是每年協商的。這些在過去幾年中仍然非常強勁。我過去曾談到，當我們進入第三季時，我們將開始了解 25 年車型合約的情況。

Initial indications are continued demand beyond what we can supply, but we'll work through that. And we'll have an update as we come through third quarter. But we're seeing demand continue both on the typical fleet contracts as well as through the dealers when it comes to the smaller fleet customers, the [fleetail], we call it, where they're buying two or three vehicles at a time. So we're watching this very closely.

初步跡象顯示需求持續超出我們的供應能力，但我們會解決這個問題。當我們進入第三季時，我們將發布最新消息。但我們看到，對於小型車隊客戶（我們稱之為“fleetail”）的典型車隊合約以及經銷商的需求都在持續增長，他們一次購買兩到三輛車。所以我們正在密切關注此事。

But so far, with '25, early indicators are positive, but we need to really move through that process much deeper before we can say where '25 is going to fall out.

但到目前為止，「25」的早期指標是正面的，但我們需要真正深入地推進這個過程，然後才能確定「25」的結果。

I wish there were a car wars for commercial. Because if there was, we would see the product freshness at Ford be an outstanding situation for us.

我希望有一場商業汽車大戰。因為如果有的話，我們會看到福特的產品新鮮度對我們來說是一個突出的情況。

So aside from kind of the industry -- backdrop of the industry pricing and the demand, I think one of the most important decisions we made several years ago is to go full in on Pro. So we invested in a one-ton Transit, which is our profit machine in Europe. We invested in new Ranger globally. We invested in a brand-new Super Duty, including chassis, including multi-energy. We invested in a new F-150, and we have all these new electric transit --- two-ton Transits.

因此，除了行業的類型——行業定價和需求的背景之外，我認為我們幾年前做出的最重要的決定之一就是全力投入 Pro。所以我們投資了一噸的 Transit，這是我們在歐洲的利潤機器。我們在全球投資了新的 Ranger。我們投資了一個全新的Super Duty，包括底盤，包括多能源。我們投資了一台新的 F-150，我們擁有所有這些新的電動運輸工具 --- 兩噸運輸工具。

That was very intentional. We did it several years ago, and now that will pay off, I believe, as we look into these multiyear contracts. And I -- for Ford at least, it's very important to understand how outsized the freshness of our lineup is at Pro. I've been here 16 years; I've never seen all of our core products updated within a 12-month period like this.

這是非常有意的。我們幾年前就這麼做了，現在我相信，當我們研究這些多年期合約時，這將會得到回報。至少對福特來說，了解 Pro 陣容的新鮮度有多巨大非常重要。我在這裡已經16年了；我從來沒有見過我們所有的核心產品在 12 個月內都像這樣更新過。

Great. Thank you. That's helpful. As a follow-up, Jim, I'm wondering if you could just address the electrification strategy in light of the November presidential elections. We know, obviously, there's one candidate who's talked about pulling back on the EV mandate and there could be some implications on IRA or the Federal or California mandates.

偉大的。謝謝。這很有幫助。作為後續行動，吉姆，我想知道您是否可以根據 11 月的總統選舉來討論電氣化策略。我們知道，顯然，有一位候選人談到了取消電動車授權，這可能會對 IRA 或聯邦或加州的授權產生一些影響。

I appreciate you've talked about the need to have flexibility. I think you even referenced earlier on the call that credits will play a role. But maybe you could give us a sense of where the strategy is. Is your strategy one that's more existential that -- and clearly, with skunkworks, it seems to indicate that it is -- versus a strategy that is maybe one that's just more meant to reach compliance with a longer-term goal in mind? But maybe you can give us a sense of how this strategy might change, if at all, depending on the outcome of the election.

我很高興您談到了靈活性的必要性。我認為您甚至早些時候在電話會議中提到積分將發揮作用。但也許你可以讓我們了解策略在哪裡。你的策略是不是一種更存在主義的策略——很明顯，臭鼬工廠似乎表明了這一點——而不是一種更旨在實現長期目標的策略？但也許你可以讓我們了解這個策略可能會如何改變（如果有的話），這取決於選舉結果。

Yeah. Thank you. Obviously, Ford's had a lot of history -- a lot of experience and wisdom after 120 years of elections. And I would say, think about our strategy this way.

是的。謝謝。顯然，福特擁有悠久的歷史——在 120 年的選舉之後積累了大量的經驗和智慧。我想說，這樣思考我們的策略。

We believe that the fitness of the Chinese in EVs will eventually wash over our entire industry in all regions. And so we believe as a company, even if there were short-term adjustments we can make to a compliance-led, lower-requirement lineup, we're not going to approach it that way.

我們相信，中國人對電動車的適應度最終將影響我們所有地區的整個產業。因此，我們相信，作為一家公司，即使我們可以對以合規為主導、要求較低的產品陣容進行短期調整，我們也不會這樣做。

We really believe what I said, which is that many Americans would find an electric vehicle lowering their cost -- not everyone, but a high percent. And we believe that to be fully fit globally, whether it's our Ranger business, our commercial business, anything really -- we have to find a way inside the company to be fully fit with lots of partnerships on the supply chain side.

我們真的相信我所說的，即許多美國人會發現電動車可以降低他們的成本——不是每個人，但比例很高。我們相信，要完全融入全球，無論是我們的 Ranger 業務、我們的商業業務，還是任何其他業務，我們都必須在公司內部找到一種方法，與供應鏈方面的眾多合作夥伴完全適應。

And so this is a kind of enduring strategy at the company. It is not a strategy where we handicap the presidential election for the next one and next one and see what we can get away with the EPA. That is not how we run Ford because Ford has -- Ford didn't go bankrupt. We have been enduring.

因此，這是公司的一種持久策略。這並不是一種讓我們阻礙下一屆總統選舉並看看我們能透過環保署做什麼的策略。這不是我們經營福特的方式，因為福特沒有破產。我們一直在忍耐。

And the only way, we believe, to be enduring is to make money on small EVs and commercial. And that's our bet. You'll see it play out in the coming years. It's a big adjustment from our gen-one products. I'm glad, as I said, we scaled 2.5 years ago, because we could learn about the reality of the market equation, which is just requiring us to be more fit and move faster.

我們相信，保持持久的唯一方法是在小型電動車和商用汽車上賺錢。這就是我們的賭注。你會在未來幾年看到它的表現。這是我們第一代產品的一個很大的調整。正如我所說，我很高興我們在 2.5 年前就進行了擴展，因為我們可以了解市場方程式的現實，這只是要求我們更加適應並更快地行動。

The EPA could certainly change. But it would take, as John said, several years for -- through legislation and lawsuits for that to change. So even from a compliance standpoint, we can't really count on administrations changing this way or that way.

EPA 肯定會改變。但正如約翰所說，需要幾年的時間才能透過立法和訴訟來改變這種情況。因此，即使從合規性的角度來看，我們也不能真正指望政府會以這種或那種方式改變。

I've been to the hill many times in the last month, talking to many Republican leaders of the country. And I always say the same thing to them, please realize that there's a subset of customers that absolutely would save money, and there are also absolutely a group of customers who like partial electrification. And Ford's strategy is choice -- manufacturing flexibility and choice.

上個月我多次去過這座山，與全國許多共和黨領導人交談。我總是對他們說同樣的話，請意識到有一部分客戶絕對會省錢，也絕對有一群客戶喜歡部分電氣化。福特的策略是選擇－製造靈活性和選擇。

We are not going to bet student body left on this or right. We are going to give customers choice. We're going to be flexible manufacturing. That's why we want to be a first adopter to an EREV or whatever is next on partial electrification, because we want to be first and best at that choice.

我們不會把學生群體押在左邊或右邊。我們將給客戶選擇。我們將實現柔性製造。這就是為什麼我們希望成為 EREV 或部分電氣化的下一步技術的第一個採用者，因為我們希望成為第一個、最好的選擇。

But on EVs, we need to be fully competitive with BYD, Geely, even our own partner, Changan. And the only way for us to have done that is through this small group in California.

但在電動車上，我們需要與比亞迪、吉利甚至我們自己的合作夥伴長安充分競爭。我們實現這一目標的唯一途徑是透過加州的這個小團體。

Ryan Brinkman, Barclays.

瑞安·布林克曼，巴克萊銀行。

Hi, Ryan Brinkman from JPMorgan. Thanks for squeezing me. Wanted to ask on the warranty performance that led to the higher cost. I remember a similar issue with higher warranty expense back in 2022, which you then tied to, I think, a transmission installed on vehicles some years prior, while noting that the quality in vehicles built recently had improved. So I know you're prioritizing initial launch quality, including with the F-150 you discussed at length last quarter.

你好，來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。謝謝你擠我。想問一下保​​固性能導致成本較高。我記得早在 2022 年就有一個類似的問題，保固費用較高，我認為，這與幾年前安裝在車輛上的變速箱有關，同時注意到最近製造的車輛的品質有所提高。所以我知道您優先考慮初始發布質量，包括您上季度詳細討論的 F-150。

But really, any color you could share would be helpful, such as whether the higher warranty provision this quarter relates to a discrete issue like in 2022 or maybe you could share what age cohort of vehicles is driving the higher cost this quarter. And then with that new provision, do you think you've got a better handle now on what future costs could be and the provision in future quarters -- it could normalize lower as soon as next quarter? Or how would you rate the potential for quality performance in older vehicles to maybe surprise negatively again?

但實際上，您可以分享的任何顏色都會有所幫助，例如本季度較高的保固條款是否與 2022 年這樣的離散問題有關，或者您可以分享哪些年齡段的車輛導致本季度成本上升。然後，有了新的準備金，您認為您現在可以更好地處理未來的成本以及未來季度的準備金嗎？或者，您如何評價舊車輛品質性能可能再次出現負面影響的可能性？

Yeah, Ryan. That's part of the issue, is these are issues that are popping up in the field on these older models. The largest one coming through is on a rear axle bolt for vehicles that were engineered for the 2021 model year was when they were introduced. And if these things come through at a higher time in service, we're made aware of them. We need to take care of our customers; we go out to fix them.

是的，瑞安。這是問題的一部分，這些問題是在這些舊型號的現場突然出現的。最大的一個缺陷是在 2021 年車型推出時設計的車輛的後軸螺栓上。如果這些事情在服務的較高時間發生，我們就會意識到它們。我們需要照顧我們的客戶；我們出去修理它們。

And we have several of those types of things popping up on our older models. We got a failed oil pump issue that's popping up on 2016 launched vehicles. And so it's clear that we had a period of time where the robustness wasn't what it needed to be, and that's showing up. And it is hard to predict on some of these units that have been out in the field for quite a while that one of these issues is going to show up with these longer-term durability and quality issues, but we need to work through that.

我們的舊型號上出現了一些這樣的東西。我們發現 2016 年推出的車輛出現了油泵故障問題。因此，很明顯，我們有一段時間的穩健性沒有達到所需的水平，而這一點正在顯現出來。很難預測其中一些已經投入使用相當長一段時間的設備是否會出現這些長期耐用性和品質問題，但我們需要解決這個問題。

And we do believe that, overall, as we improve our near-term quality and that starts to show up in the field, that will allow us to -- based on the rules that we have around how we do our accruals -- bring down that overall accrual level so these types of issues, if they pop up will have less of an impact overall, because our run rate on quality will be improving.

我們確實相信，總體而言，隨著我們提高近期品質並開始在該領域顯現出來，這將使我們能夠——根據我們應計費用的規則——降低總體應計水平，因此這些類型的問題如果出現，整體影響會較小，因為我們的品質運行率將會提高。

Okay, thanks. Maybe just a follow-up on how your comments there might relate to what Jim was saying earlier about Ford controlling the software stack from bumper to bumper, from all the over-the-air update capabilities. What do these new capabilities mean for your ability to troubleshoot or prevent warranty issues in the future?

好的謝謝。也許只是後續你的評論可能與吉姆之前所說的福特透過所有無線更新功能控制軟體堆疊的內容有關。這些新功能對於您將來解決或預防保固問題的能力意味著什麼？

Those are critical, because when you look at some of these things that have been out in the field for a while that have failed, they cross over -- let's say, they were launched in a '16 model year. It was the first year it was done. So it was designed and engineered in '13, '14, '15, launched in '16. And it's been out there for quite a few years.

這些都很重要，因為當你看到一些已經投入使用一段時間但失敗的東西時，它們會交叉——比方說，它們是在 16 年推出的。這是它完成的第一年。所以它是在 13 年、14 年、15 年設計和製造的，並在 16 年推出。而且它已經存在好幾年了。

With the connected vehicle and having the digital electrical architecture and us controlling the software across all of the operating domains, we would be able to get signals off the vehicle early to tell us whether or not we're having an issue in certain components. And if we understand that early, we can understand the cause of that, and then we can go out and minimize, reduce -- get out there earlier and reduce the number of vehicles that are impacted and actually either do an over-the-air update if we can fix it that way or do a preventative maintenance type program for folks, which will be much cheaper than a field service action recall where you're replacing components and modules, etc.

借助連網車輛和數位電氣架構，以及我們控制所有操作域的軟體，我們將能夠儘早從車輛上獲取訊號，告訴我們某些組件是否有問題。如果我們儘早了解這一點，我們就可以了解其原因，然後我們就可以出去並最大限度地減少、減少——早點出去並減少受影響的車輛數量，實際上要么進行空中廣播如果我們可以通過這種方式修復它，或為人們執行預防性維護類型的計劃，則進行更新，這比更換組件和模組等的現場服務行動召回便宜得多。

So there's a lot of advantages through that connected data that we'll be able to run through the warranty system. That's more on the physical side. On the software side, we'll be able to understand when things are an issue much earlier, and we'll be able to fix them through over-the-air updates, which will be a much lower cost as we move forward.

因此，透過保固系統運作的互聯數據有很多優勢。這更多是在物理方面。在軟體方面，我們將能夠更早了解問題何時出現，並且我們將能夠透過無線更新來修復它們，隨著我們的前進，這將大大降低成本。

During our launches on Kumar and Doug have partnered in a way that hasn't been done at Ford, for a while at least, where we are testing vehicles to failure and individual components to failure, which is not our launch standard, but we are now doing that.

在我們的產品發布過程中，庫馬爾和道格以福特從未有過的方式進行合作，至少在一段時間內，我們正在測試車輛的故障和單個組件的故障，這不是我們的發布標準，但我們是現在正在這樣做。

And we are also looking at the DTC codes off the vehicle, especially powertrain DTCs, and running these vehicles at extremely high mileage far beyond our standard for launch. And that has caught many, many issues in our industrial system that we've been able to correct, before we release the vehicle.

我們也正在查看車輛的 DTC 代碼，尤其是動力總成 DTC，並以遠遠超出我們發布標準的極高里程運行這些車輛。這在我們的工業系統中發現了很多很多問題，在我們發布車輛之前我們已經能夠糾正這些問題。

It's painful to have all these vehicles over quarter ends, but it's the right thing to do for the company. And it is the only way, we believe, in addressing our warranty spend.

在季度末讓所有這些車輛都停產是很痛苦的，但這對公司來說是正確的事情。我們相信，這是解決保固支出的唯一方法。

Thanks. This concludes the Ford Motor Company second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。福特汽車公司 2024 年第二季財報電話會議至此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。