福特汽車 (F) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q2 營收創新高達 500 億美元,調整後 EBIT 為 21 億美元,年增、成本持續改善(不含關稅影響)
    • 全年調整後 EBIT 指引下修至 65~75 億美元(淨關稅後),CapEx 指引約 90 億美元,維持自由現金流預估 35~45 億美元
    • 市場反應未明確揭露,但管理層強調 Ford Pro、成本改善與現金流韌性優於同業
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • Ford Pro 事業群持續成長,軟體與售後服務高毛利、佔 EBIT 比重提升至 17%
      • 美國市場市佔率提升,產品組合強勁,F-Series、Ranger、Maverick 等卡車銷售創 20 年新高
      • Model e(電動車)營收倍增,毛利率大幅改善,材料成本下降、營運效率提升
      • 全球多區域市佔提升,國際業務(含中國)皆獲利
    • 風險:
      • 2025 年關稅淨逆風約 20 億美元,政策變動仍具高度不確定性
      • 召回(FSA)成本雖有改善趨勢,但短期內仍為壓力,改善需時間反映於財報
      • 歐洲商用車市場競爭加劇,部分產品線價格壓力
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Ford Pro:美國市佔率年增 1 個百分點,歐洲年增 3.2 個百分點
    • Ford Pro:軟體付費訂閱數年增 24% 至 757,000,ARPU 同步年增 24%
    • Ford Pro:售後服務提升,客戶維修時間縮短 20%,全球行動服務網絡年增 18%
    • Ford Pro:營收年增 11% 至近 190 億美元,EBIT margin 12.3%
    • Model e:營收年增逾 1 倍至 24 億美元,毛利率提升 44 個百分點
    • Ford Blue:本季獲利近 7 億美元,市佔與價格提升,國際業務全區獲利
  4. 財務預測
    • 全年營收未明確揭露,全年調整後 EBIT 指引 65~75 億美元(淨關稅後)
    • 全年自由現金流預估 35~45 億美元
    • 全年資本支出(CapEx)約 90 億美元,處於先前指引高端
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 指引下修的主要驅動因素?成本改善如何抵消關稅逆風?
      A: 關稅淨逆風 20 億美元導致指引下修,但成本改善(材料、製造效率、保固費用)超預期,支撐自由現金流維持原預估。
    • Q: 美國排放政策放寬後,EV 資本支出是否會進一步縮減?
      A: 已大幅調整 EV 投資與產品規劃,部分資本轉向 Ford Pro,未來將持續根據政策與市場需求調整 EV 支出與產品組合。
    • Q: 召回(FSA)成本改善進度?高標準下是否會有更多召回?
      A: 保固覆蓋成本明顯改善,FSA 成本有早期正向指標,但需時間反映於全車隊,軟體召回成本遠低於機械召回。
    • Q: 歐洲商用車市場競爭壓力如何管理?
      A: 新產品(1 噸 Transit、Ranger)帶動市佔與獲利提升,與 Volkswagen 合作生產有助成本結構,南非、土耳其生產基地具成本優勢。
    • Q: 排放標準放寬與關稅長期並存,對獲利結構影響?
      A: 排放標準放寬將帶來實質獲利尾風,產品組合可更貼近市場需求,長期關稅則需持續與政府協商,若能簡化零件關稅將有額外利多。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, everyone. My name is Leila, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Ford Motor Company second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

    大家好。我叫萊拉 (Leila),今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在,我歡迎您參加福特汽車公司2025年第二季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)

  • At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Lynn Antipas Tyson, Executive Director of Investor Relations.

    現在,我想將電話轉給投資人關係執行董事 Lynn Antipas Tyson。

  • Lynn Antipas Tyson - Executive Director of Investor Relations

    Lynn Antipas Tyson - Executive Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Leila, and welcome, everyone, to Ford Motor Company's second quarter 2025 earnings call.

    謝謝萊拉,歡迎大家參加福特汽車公司 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。

  • With me today are Jim Farley, President and CEO; Sherry House, CFO; Andrew Frick, President, Ford Blue; and Mondale and Interim Head of Ford Pro; and Kumar Galhotra, Chief Operating Officer. Joining us for Q&A will be Kathy O'Callahan, CEO of Ford Credit; and Steve Carley, Chief Policy Officer and General Counsel.

    今天與我一起的有總裁兼首席執行官吉姆·法利 (Jim Farley)、首席財務官雪莉·豪斯 (Sherry House)、福特藍色總裁安德魯·弗里克 (Andrew Frick)、蒙代爾 (Mondale) 和福特專業代理主管;以及首席營運官庫馬爾·加爾霍特拉 (Kumar Galhotra)。參加我們問答環節的有福特信貸執行長凱西·奧卡拉漢 (Kathy O'Callahan) 和首席政策官兼總法律顧問史蒂夫·卡利 (Steve Carley)。

  • Today, Jim will provide a high-level overview of our performance and touch on the policy environment. Andrew will then cover market dynamics, followed by Kumar and on industrial progress. Sherry will conclude with a detailed financial review and our updated guidance before we turn to Q&A.

    今天,吉姆將對我們的表現進行高層次概述,並談到政策環境。隨後,安德魯 (Andrew) 將介紹市場動態,隨後庫馬爾 (Kumar) 將介紹工業進展。在我們進入問答環節之前,Sherry 將進行詳細的財務審查並給予我們的最新指導。

  • We'll be referencing non-GAAP measures today. These are reconciled to the most comparable US GAAP measures in the appendix of our earnings deck. You can find the deck at shareholder.ford.com.

    今天我們將參考非公認會計準則衡量指標。這些與我們收益表附錄中最可比較的美國 GAAP 指標相協調。您可以在 shareholders.ford.com 找到該簡報。

  • Our discussion also includes forward-looking statements. Our actual results may differ. The most significant risk factors are included on page 20 of our deck. Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year-over-year. Company EBIT, EPS and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis.

    我們的討論也包括前瞻性陳述。我們的實際結果可能有所不同。最重要的風險因素列在我們的簡報的第 20 頁。除非另有說明,所有比較均為同比。公司息稅前利潤 (EBIT)、每股盈餘 (EPS) 和自由現金流量均已調整。

  • Lastly, I'd like to highlight a key near-term public IR engagement. On August 13, Navin Kumar, CFO of Ford Pro, will participate in a fireside chat with Ryan Brinkman at the JPMorgan Auto Conference in New York.

    最後,我想強調一下近期公共 IR 參與的一個關鍵點。8 月 13 日,福特專業公司財務長 Navin Kumar 將在紐約摩根大通汽車會議上與 Ryan Brinkman 進行爐邊對話。

  • Now I'll turn the call over to Jim.

    現在我將把電話轉給吉姆。

  • James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Lynn. Hi, everyone. The Ford team delivered a solid second quarter, including a record $50 billion in revenue that underscores the strength of our incredible products and services. Overall, we earned $2.1 billion in adjusted EBIT and delivered another quarter of year-over-year improvement in cost, excluding the impact of tariffs.

    謝謝你,林恩。大家好。福特團隊在第二季度取得了穩健的業績,其中包括創紀錄的 500 億美元營收,這凸顯了我們卓越的產品和服務的實力。整體而言,我們的調整後息稅前利潤為 21 億美元,且成本(不包括關稅的影響)比去年同期又有所改善。

  • For the full year, we now expect adjusted EBIT to be between $6.5 billion and $7.5 billion net of tariffs. I want to recognize our team as well as our dealers and our suppliers for working together effectively to drive our business forward around the world. Thank you.

    就全年而言,我們目前預計調整後的息稅前利潤(扣除關稅)將在 65 億至 75 億美元之間。我要表彰我們的團隊以及我們的經銷商和供應商,他們有效地合作,推動我們的業務在全球向前發展。謝謝。

  • Ford Pro, our growth engine best exemplifies our strength this quarter. We have transformed this business by diversifying our revenue streams. Over the past 12 months, aftermarket, which includes parts and software and services, contributed 17% of Pro's EBIT, closing in on that 20% target for next year. These high-margin reoccurring revenues make Ford Pro a less cyclical and more durable business. To accelerate that progress over our multiyear business plan, we are shifting capital towards Pro, partly funded by reallocating the resources on future EV programs.

    福特 Pro 是我們的成長引擎,最能體現我們本季的實力。我們透過多元化收入來源實現了業務轉型。在過去的 12 個月中,包括零件、軟體和服務在內的售後市場為 Pro 的息稅前利潤貢獻了 17%,接近明年 20% 的目標。這些高利潤的經常性收入使 Ford Pro 的業務週期性更小,更持久。為了加速我們多年商業計劃的進展,我們正在將資金轉向 Pro,部分資金來自對未來電動車專案的資源重新分配。

  • As I hope you saw earlier today, we're pleased to announce that Alicia Boler-Davis will be joining Ford as the President of Ford Blue effective -- excuse me, Pro effective October 1. Alicia is incredibly talented and experienced business leader, and her experience across automotive and technology, logistics and customer experience is exactly the right skill set that we need to accelerate Ford Pro's transformation towards software and services and, of course, greater profitability.

    我希望您今天早些時候看到,我們很高興地宣布,艾莉西亞·博勒-戴維斯 (Alicia Boler-Davis) 將加入福特,擔任福特藍色總裁,該職位將於 10 月 1 日生效——不好意思,是專業版。艾莉西亞是一位才華橫溢、經驗豐富的商業領袖,她在汽車和技術、物流和客戶體驗方面的經驗正是我們所需要的技能,可以加速福特專業向軟體和服務的轉型,當然,還可以提高盈利能力。

  • Andrew Frick, who has done an excellent job leading Ford Pro on an intra basis will continue to lead Blue and Model e going forward. Model e delivered a significant margin improvement in the quarter as the team continued to scale operations as we more than doubled the volume in Model e, while also lowering the material cost and driving other operational efficiencies.

    安德魯·弗里克 (Andrew Frick) 在領導 Ford Pro 內部工作方面表現出色,他將繼續領導 Blue 和 Model e 的發展。由於團隊繼續擴大營運規模,Model e 的產量增加了一倍以上,同時降低了材料成本並提高了其他營運效率,Model e 在本季度實現了顯著的利潤率提升。

  • On August 11, that will be a big day for all of us at Ford. We will be in Kentucky to share more about our plans to design and build a breakthrough electric vehicle and a platform in the US. This is a Model e moment for us at Ford, a chance to bring in new family of vehicles to the world that offer incredible technology, efficiency space and features.

    8月11日,對我們福特全體員工來說都是一個重要的日子。我們將前往肯塔基州,分享更多有關我們在美國設計和製造突破性電動車和平台的計劃。對於福特來說,這是一個 Model e 時刻,一個向世界推出擁有令人難以置信的技術、高效空間和功能的全新車型系列的機會。

  • In for Blue, US sales in the quarter were especially strong. We gained share and committed higher pricing, reflecting the strength of this incredible product line if we have at Ford. And as America's largest automotive producer and the best-selling brand in the US in the first half of this year, we support a level playing field globally.

    對 Blue 來說,本季在美國的銷售尤其強勁。我們獲得了市場份額並承諾了更高的定價,這反映了福特這一令人難以置信的產品線的實力。作為美國最大的汽車生產商和今年上半年美國最暢銷的品牌,我們支持全球公平的競爭環境。

  • We value our ongoing cooperation with the administration on trade policy and CO2 emission standards. We expect tariffs to be a net headwind of about $2 billion this year, and we'll continue to monitor the developments closely and engage with policymakers to ensure US auto workers and customers are not disadvantaged by policy change.

    我們重視與政府在貿易政策和二氧化碳排放標準的持續合作。我們預計今年關稅將造成約 20 億美元的淨逆風,我們將繼續密切關注事態發展並與政策制定者合作,以確保美國汽車工人和客戶不會因政策變化而受到不利影響。

  • We've been working hard with administration. We believe our cycle plan is right for this tariff environment for the coming years. The latest round of tariff policies, especially the deals in Japan and Europe and potentially South Korea makes our strategy even more compelling at Ford. Our bet is not to compete in high-volume generic segments that typically require overseas production for cost competitiveness.

    我們一直在努力與管理階層合作。我們相信我們的週期計劃適合未來幾年的關稅環境。最新一輪的關稅政策,尤其是與日本、歐洲以及潛在的韓國的協議,使得福特的戰略更加引人注目。我們的選擇不是在通常需要海外生產才能實現成本競爭力的大批量仿製藥領域進行競爭。

  • Instead, we are doubling down on what we do best: trucks, iconic passion products, Ford Pro and breakthrough technology that you will soon see in our forthcoming EV platform. Now on emissions, America's top brand, we further are investing in giving our customers choice along their low CO2 journey, new investments in ICE, more efficient and performance hybrids and full electric vehicles are all on tap at Ford.

    相反,我們正在加倍努力,專注於我們最擅長的領域:卡車、標誌性激情產品、福特 Pro 以及您即將在我們即將推出的電動車平台上看到的突破性技術。現在,作為美國頂級品牌,我們在排放方面正在進一步投資,為客戶提供低二氧化碳排放之旅的選擇,福特在內燃機、更高效、性能更強的混合動力汽車和全電動汽車方面都有新的投資。

  • We support a single durable national emission standard to ensure sound industry planning -- we proposed reforms that are on the table now give us greater powertrain optionality and reduce our need to buy CO2 credits. In fact, our commitment to purchase CO2 credits have already been reduced by nearly $1.5 billion.

    我們支持單一的、持久的國家排放標準,以確保合理的行業規劃——我們提出的改革方案現在正在討論中,這為我們提供更多的動力系統可選性,並減少我們購買二氧化碳排放額度的需要。事實上,我們購買二氧化碳排放額度的承諾已經減少了近15億美元。

  • Further changes will balance standards and customer choice and has the potential to unlock a multibillion-dollar opportunity over the next two years. primarily in Ford Blue, which has carried a lot of the compliance burden. EPA's announcement this week will give us more flexibility with respect to our product mix and volume. Once finalized, this will provide further opportunities to improve profits next year and beyond.

    進一步的改變將平衡標準和客戶的選擇,並有可能在未來兩年內釋放數十億美元的商機。主要是在福特藍色方面,它承擔了很多合規負擔。美國環保署本週的公告將為我們的產品組合和產量帶來更大的彈性。一旦最終確定,這將為明年及以後提高利潤提供進一步的機會。

  • And finally, reaching world-class vehicle quality remains our top priority as a team. Although we face challenges with our older vehicles, the quality improvements on recent model years shows we are on a favorable trajectory. As Kumar explains, we are on track for our best initial quality metrics in over a decade at Ford. Ford is now the most awarded brand in J.D. Power's 2025 IQS study, and link has approved two years in a row.

    最後,達到世界一流的車輛品質仍然是我們團隊的首要任務。儘管我們的舊車輛面臨挑戰,但近年來車型的品質改進表明我們正處於良好的發展軌道上。正如庫馬爾所解釋的那樣,福特十多年來一直致力於實現最佳初始品質指標。福特目前是 J.D. Power 2025 年 IQS 研究中獲獎最多的品牌,並且已經連續兩年獲得認可。

  • We're proud of the progress, and we expect our warranty costs to decline in the years ahead.

    我們對這一進步感到自豪,並預計未來幾年我們的保固成本將會下降。

  • Andrew?

    安德魯?

  • Andrew Frick - President, Ford Blue and Model e

    Andrew Frick - President, Ford Blue and Model e

  • Great. Thank you, Jim.

    偉大的。謝謝你,吉姆。

  • I will start with Ford Pro where our disciplined customer-led investment strategy is paying off. Year-to-date, Ford Pro share increased 1 point in the US and [3.2] points in Europe.

    我首先從 Ford Pro 開始,我們嚴謹的以客戶為主導的投資策略正在獲得回報。今年迄今為止,福特專業版在美國的市佔率增加了 1 個百分點,在歐洲的市佔率增加了 3.2 個百分點。

  • This performance is driven by a diverse vehicle lineup and continued investment in the Pro portfolio. Delivering on uptime, the most important KPI for our customers is a shared mission that we have with our dealers. Over the past year, Ford Pro solutions have boosted customers' uptime by reducing repair time by 20%.

    這一業績得益於多樣化的車輛陣容和對 Pro 產品組合的持續投資。確保正常運作時間是我們的客戶最重要的關鍵績效指標,也是我們與經銷商共同的使命。在過去的一年裡,福特專業解決方案將維修時間縮短了 20%,從而提高了客戶的正常運作時間。

  • As Jim mentioned, we have increased our capital spend on Ford Pro and our dealer network has done the same, investing $2 billion of their own capital since 2022, primarily to expand service capacity. And we have grown our global mobile service network by 18% to more than 4,700 units, enabling growth in service parts penetration. All of this translates to higher quality earnings and connected vehicle data fuels that growth.

    正如吉姆所提到的,我們增加了對 Ford Pro 的資本支出,我們的經銷商網路也做了同樣的事情,自 2022 年以來投資了 20 億美元自有資本,主要用於擴大服務能力。我們的全球行動服務網路成長了 18%,達到 4,700 多個單位,從而提高了服務零件的滲透率。所有這些都轉化為更高品質的收益,而連網汽車數據則推動了這一成長。

  • Paid software subscriptions climbed 24% to 757,000 with average monthly revenue per unit, or ARPU, also growing 24% driven by roughly a doubling of the telematics and fleet management subscriptions.

    付費軟體訂閱量成長 24%,達到 757,000,平均每台月收入(ARPU)也成長了 24%,這得益於遠端資訊處理和車隊管理訂閱量大約翻了一番。

  • Now let us look at our global business. In the US, our sales were exceptionally strong this quarter, growing 7 times faster than the industry with market share up 1.7 points sequentially. In addition to the share gains, our transaction prices increased more than the industry average. We had our best quarter in 20 years for total trucks, driven by F-Series Ranger and Maverick.

    現在讓我們來看看我們的全球業務。在美國,我們本季的銷售表現異常強勁,成長速度是該產業的 7 倍,市佔率較上季成長 1.7 個百分點。除了股價上漲之外,我們的交易價格漲幅也高於同業平均。在 F 系列 Ranger 和 Maverick 的推動下,我們迎來了卡車整體 20 年來最好的一個季度。

  • Full-size Bronco posted a record quarter and the all-new Expedition and Navigator are off to a hot start with sales up 44% and 115%, respectively. We also sold more electrified vehicles than our two main domestic rivals combined with EVs and hybrids at close to 14% of our US mix. The success of our from America for America campaign allowed us to reduce our US growth stocks by four days’ supply.

    全尺寸 Bronco 本季銷售創下紀錄,全新 Expedition 和 Navigator 開局火爆,銷售分別成長 44% 和 115%。我們的電動車銷量也比國內兩大競爭對手的電動車和混合動力車銷量總和還要多,占美國汽車總銷量的近 14%。我們的「來自美國,服務美國」運動取得了成功,這讓我們減少了可供四天使用的美國成長型庫存。

  • Building off that momentum, we entered the second phase of our from America for America campaign earlier this month and our sales pace remains strong. Our dealer stocks are healthy. Our product portfolio is fresh, and we have new entrants like Explorer Tremor and F-150 Lobo hitting showroom soon.

    在這一勢頭的基礎上,我們於本月初進入了「來自美國,服務美國」活動的第二階段,我們的銷售速度依然強勁。我們的經銷商庫存充足。我們的產品組合很新穎,Explorer Tremor 和 F-150 Lobo 等新產品即將上市。

  • We are confident our product lineup and US footprint will continue to drive profitable growth opportunities. Outside of the US, our global portfolio has made year-to-date share gains in key markets such as Canada, Europe, South America and the Middle East.

    我們相信,我們的產品陣容和美國業務將繼續推動獲利成長機會。除美國以外,我們的全球投資組合今年迄今在加拿大、歐洲、南美和中東等主要市場的份額均有所增長。

  • China remains a strategic export hub, especially for growth nameplates like Territory and the new Ranger P have built in South Africa has been well received in Europe and is now shipping to Australia. Lastly, Blue's international operations were profitable in all regions, including China during the second quarter.

    中國仍然是一個戰略出口中心,特別是對於像 Territory 和新款 Ranger P 這樣的成長型品牌而言。這兩款車在南非生產,在歐洲廣受好評,目前正運往澳洲。最後,Blue 的國際業務在第二季度在包括中國在內的所有地區都實現了盈利。

  • Now I'll turn it over to Kumar.

    現在我將把發言權交給庫馬爾。

  • Kumar Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer

    Kumar Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer

  • Thanks, Andrew.

    謝謝,安德魯。

  • Our industrial platform is delivering tangible progress on our core priorities, cost and quality. We're making this progress by establishing key enablers, leading indicators and output [KBIs], enablers are the most important factor. For example, we have roughly doubled the number of our safety and technical experts. We have significantly increased testing to failure on critical systems like powertrain, steering and braking.

    我們的工業平台在我們的核心優先事項—成本和品質方面取得了實際的進展。我們透過建立關鍵推動因素、領先指標和產出 [KBI] 來取得這項進展,推動因素是最重要的因素。例如,我們的安全和技術專家的數量增加了一倍。我們大幅增加了動力傳動系統、轉向和煞車等關鍵系統的故障測試。

  • We are also monitoring more vehicles in the field through connectivity. Insights from these initiatives are also being incorporated into current production. This has contributed to some more recalls in the near term, but it is the right thing to do for our customers.

    我們也透過連接方式監控現場的更多車輛。這些舉措的見解也被納入目前的生產中。這導致了短期內更多的召回,但對於我們的客戶來說,這是正確的做法。

  • Let's start with costs. We are still targeting to deliver a net improvement of $1 billion this year, excluding the impact of tariffs. A significant driver of these savings is material cost improvement actions, which will also flow through into 2026. It is important to note that in the second quarter, our costs would still have been down even if the special field service action or the FSA was included.

    讓我們從成本開始。我們今年的目標仍是實現 10 億美元的淨改善(不包括關稅的影響)。推動這些節省的一個重要因素是材料成本改進措施,這也將延續到 2026 年。值得注意的是,在第二季度,即使包括特別現場服務行動或FSA,我們的成本仍然會下降。

  • Turning to quality. Warranty is the largest component of our competitive cost gap. This is a major cost opportunity for us. There are two warranty costs investors should focus on. The first is warranty coverage.

    轉向品質。保固是我們競爭成本差距的最大組成部分。這對我們來說是一個重大的成本機會。投資人應該關注兩項保固費用。首先是保固範圍。

  • This is the expected cost to cover our bumper-to-bumper and powertrain warranties. Coverages make up about 60% of our total warranty costs. As the quality of our vehicles improves, the cost of coverage per vehicle should come down. In fact, we are already seeing this improvement.

    這是涵蓋我們的保險桿到保險桿和動力系統保固的預期成本。保險費用約占我們總保固費用的 60%。隨著車輛品質的提高,每輛車的保險成本應該會下降。事實上,我們已經看到了這種改善。

  • Our latest 0 and 3 months in service metrics are tracking towards our strongest performance in over 10 years. The second part of warranty costs are FSAs, costs associated with recalls and customer satisfaction items. We are not satisfied with the current level of recalls or the number of vehicles impacted. We are working to reduce the cost of these recalls.

    我們最新的 0 個月和 3 個月的服務指標正朝著 10 多年來最強勁的表現邁進。保固成本的第二部分是FSA,即與召回和客戶滿意度項目相關的成本。我們對目前的召回程度和受影響的車輛數量並不滿意。我們正在努力降低這些召回的成本。

  • For example, we are leveraging AI solutions to improve parts traceability to help minimize the scope of recall units. Roughly one-third of our recalls over the past three years have been software related, and we are addressing this head on. We are using over-the-air or OTA updates to reduce customer inconvenience of having to take the recall units in for service. OTAs are a game changer. OTAs cost over 95% less than physical repairs.

    例如,我們正在利用人工智慧解決方案來提高零件的可追溯性,以幫助最大限度地縮小召回單位的範圍。在過去三年中,我們大約三分之一的召回都與軟體有關,我們正在積極解決這個問題。我們正在使用無線或 OTA 更新來減少客戶因必須將召回的設備送去維修而造成的不便。OTA 改變了遊戲規則。OTA 費用比物理維修低 95% 以上。

  • While OTAs and other process improvements are helping us make meaningful cost improvement, most of our recent FSA costs are tied to vehicles engineered several years ago. before we made all the robust process changes across our industrial system. As a result, the expected FSA cost improvement will not impact the bottom line as quickly as improvement in coverage costs. There is a lag effect until the majority of our car park reflects vehicles designed and built under the strengthened processes, but there are early indicators that are encouraging. For example, the FSA costs for '24 and '25 model year vehicles are at least 50% better than '20 and '22 model year at similar time and service.

    雖然 OTA 和其他流程改進正在幫助我們實現有意義的成本改進,但我們最近的大部分 FSA 成本都與幾年前設計的車輛有關。在我們對整個工業系統進行所有強大的流程變革之前。因此,預期的 FSA 成本改善不會像覆蓋成本改善那樣迅速地影響底線。在我們的停車場的大多數車輛都採用強化流程設計和製造之前,存在滯後效應,但早期指標令人鼓舞。例如,'24 和 '25 車型年的車輛的 FSA 成本比類似時間和服務的 '20 和 '22 車型年款低至少 50%。

  • Now I'll turn it over to Sherry.

    現在我將把話題交給雪莉。

  • Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer

    Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Kumar.

    謝謝你,庫馬爾。

  • Ford's transformation journey is well underway and our objective to build a higher growth, higher margin or capital efficient and durable business is evident in our ongoing performance.

    福特的轉型之旅正在順利進行中,我們的目標是建立一個更高成長、更高利潤率或資本效率更高且持久的業務,這一點在我們目前的業績中得到了體現。

  • Our global revenue grew 5% in the second quarter outpacing wholesale growth of 4%. We achieved our fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year cost improvement, excluding the impact of tariffs. And we delivered $2.1 billion in adjusted EBIT despite a net tariff impact of about $800 million. The durability of our business has also strengthened.

    我們第二季的全球營收成長了 5%,超過了 4% 的批發成長。不計關稅的影響,我們連續第四個季度實現了成本年比改善。儘管淨關稅影響約為 8 億美元,我們仍實現了 21 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤。我們的業務持久性也得到了增強。

  • The consistent positive performance across our industrial system helped us close roughly $1.5 billion of our competitive cost gap in material costs last year, and we have delivered year-over-year improvement through the first half of 2025 excluding tariffs.

    我們整個工業體系的持續積極表現幫助我們在去年彌補了約 15 億美元的材料成本競爭差距,並且到 2025 年上半年,我們實現了不包括關稅在內的同比增長。

  • Now for some segment highlights. Ford Pro continues to demonstrate its structural advantages, a large and growing share of US and European vehicle volume complemented by the largest and growing service operations network. This fast network is helping us rapidly grow our high-margin software and physical services businesses.

    現在來看看一些片段的亮點。福特專業版繼續展示其結構優勢,在美國和歐洲汽車銷售中佔有較大且不斷增長的份額,並輔以最大且不斷增長的服務運營網絡。這個快速的網路正在幫助我們快速發展高利潤的軟體和實體服務業務。

  • Pro's revenue grew 11% to nearly $19 billion. It's 12.3% EBIT margin is driven by a strong product lineup disciplined pricing and the increase in mix from our high-margin, capital-efficient services business. We feel confident about Pro demand in the second half supported by policy changes that should drive a recovery in small business activity. Ford Model e delivered solid top line growth, with revenue more than doubling to $2.4 billion.

    Pro 的營收成長 11%,達到近 190 億美元。其 12.3% 的息稅前利潤率是由強大的產品陣容、嚴格的定價以及高利潤、資本高效的服務業務組合的增加所推動的。我們對下半年的專業需求充滿信心,因為政策改變將推動小型企業活動的復甦。福特 Model e 實現了穩健的營收成長,營收成長一倍多,達到 24 億美元。

  • Our margins improved nearly 44 points, largely related to mix, driven by the full year launch effect at the European Explorer in pre-models in the newly launched Puma. Mackie and Lightning also improved their material costs in 2025. From a capital perspective, Model e continues to make targeted investments where we have breakthrough innovation such as our next-generation EVs and where we have a distinct advantage such as our LFP battery technology, launching in our new plant in Marshall, Michigan.

    我們的利潤率提高了近 44 個百分點,這主要與產品組合有關,這得益於新推出的 Puma 預車型歐洲探險者的全年發布效應。Mackie 和 Lightning 也在 2025 年改善了材料成本。從資本角度來看,Model e 繼續進行有針對性的投資,投資領域包括我們擁有突破性創新的下一代電動車以及我們擁有獨特優勢的領域,例如我們將在密西根州馬歇爾的新工廠推出的 LFP 電池技術。

  • Consistent with our goal to improve capital efficiency, we are actively pursuing options to maximize the utilization of all of our assets. You will hear more from us on this in the future. Ford Blue earned nearly $700 million in the quarter, reflecting profitable market share gains, higher net pricing and cost improvement. This was overshadowed by the nonrecurrence of last year's F-150 stock build following the new model launch and tariff headwinds, which drove lower EBIT and margin in the quarter. Ford Credit is a source of strength and a strategic asset for the company.

    為了實現提高資本效率的目標,我們正在積極尋求最大限度提高所有資產利用率的方法。您將來會聽到我們關於此事的更多消息。福特藍色本季獲利近 7 億美元,反映出獲利的市場佔有率成長、淨定價上升和成本改善。但去年新車型推出後 F-150 庫存未再增加,加上關稅逆風,導致本季息稅前利潤和利潤率下降,掩蓋了這一增長。福特信貸是公司的力量來源和策略資產。

  • In the second quarter, Ford Credit delivered $645 million of EBT, up $300 million, reflecting improved financing margin and receivables growth coupled with continued strong portfolio performance. Ford Credit also paid a $500 million distribution in the quarter, bringing total year-to-date distributions to $700 million. Total company adjusted free cash flow was solid at $2.8 billion. Our balance sheet is a competitive advantage. It's strong and getting stronger.

    第二季度,福特信貸的息稅前利潤 (EBT) 達到 6.45 億美元,年增 3 億美元,反映出融資保證金和應收帳款的成長以及投資組合表現的持續強勁。福特信貸公司還在本季支付了 5 億美元的分紅,使年初至今的總分紅額達到 7 億美元。公司調整後的自由現金流總穩定在 28 億美元。我們的資產負債表是一種競爭優勢。它很強大,並且越來越強大。

  • We ended the quarter with more than $28 billion in cash and $46 billion in liquidity. And over the last week, we bolstered our liquidity with two incremental actions. A new $3 billion delayed draw term loan and a GBP1 billion UK export financing arrangement. These transactions were proactive providing flexibility to refinance the roughly $5 billion of debt we have maturing in 2025 and 2026, and at a cost that's significantly below a traditional unsecured offering.

    本季末,我們擁有超過 280 億美元的現金和 460 億美元的流動資金。過去一周,我們採取了兩項漸進式行動來增強流動性。一項新的 30 億美元延期提取定期貸款和 10 億英鎊的英國出口融資安排。這些交易是積極主動的,為我們在 2025 年和 2026 年到期的約 50 億美元債務的再融資提供了靈活性,而且成本遠低於傳統的無擔保發行。

  • With these actions, our liquidity is historically strong, providing us with invaluable flexibility, including the ability to invest through an economic downturn and continue to fund growth in areas like Ford Crow, while some competitors may be forced to pull back. This strength, combined with the consistent free cash flow generation is the foundation that allows us to consistently return capital to our shareholders.

    透過這些行動,我們的流動性達到了歷史最高水平,為我們提供了寶貴的靈活性,包括在經濟低迷時期進行投資的能力,以及繼續為福特克勞等領域的增長提供資金的能力,而一些競爭對手可能被迫撤退。這種優勢,加上持續的自由現金流生成,是我們持續向股東回饋資本的基礎。

  • In accordance with our commitment to return 40% to 50% of trailing adjusted free cash flow. Today, we announced the declaration of our third quarter regular dividend of $0.15 per share payable on September 2 to shareholders of record on August 11. So let us turn to our 2025 outlook. For the full year, we expect company adjusted EBIT of $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion, adjusted free cash flow of $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion and capital expenditures of about $9 billion.

    依照我們的承諾,返還40%至50%的調整後自由現金流。今天,我們宣布宣布第三季定期股息為每股 0.15 美元,將於 9 月 2 日支付給 8 月 11 日登記在冊的股東。那麼讓我們展望一下 2025 年。我們預計公司全年調整後息稅前利潤為 65 億美元至 75 億美元,調整後自由現金流為 35 億美元至 45 億美元,資本支出約 90 億美元。

  • Our updated guidance reflects a strong underlying first half performance across our three automotive segments and for Credit including our continued improvement in costs. Our full year outlook assumes a net tariff headwind of about $2 billion, reflecting approximately $3 billion of adverse gross adjusted EBIT impact, offset partially by $1 billion of recovery actions, primarily market factors.

    我們更新後的指引反映了我們三個汽車部門和信貸部門上半年強勁的表現,包括我們成本的持續改善。我們的全年展望假設淨關稅逆風約為 20 億美元,反映出約 30 億美元的不利調整後息稅前利潤影響,部分被 10 億美元的復甦行動(主要是市場因素)所抵消。

  • US industry sales of 16 million to 16.5 million units industry pricing to be about flat and lastly, a net cost improvement target of $1 billion, excluding the impact of tariffs. Given the potential range of outcomes related to how the net tariff headwind will play out by segment, we're only providing a total company outlook for the remainder of the year.

    美國產業銷售量為 1,600 萬至 1,650 萬台,產業定價基本持平,最後,淨成本改善目標為 10 億美元,不包括關稅的影響。考慮到淨關稅逆風對各個細分市場產生的潛在影響範圍,我們僅提供今年剩餘時間的整體公司前景。

  • In summary, our business transformation is well underway. We are laser focused on capital efficiency and cost improvement and our strong balance sheet gives us the power to invest through the cycle and act opportunistically.

    整體來說,我們的業務轉型正在順利進行。我們專注於資本效率和成本改善,強大的資產負債表使我們有能力在整個週期中進行投資並抓住機會採取行動。

  • I'll now turn the call over to the operator for Q&A.

    我現在將電話轉給接線員進行問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will now move to our question-and-answer session.

    我們現在進入問答環節。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Emmanuel Rosner, Wolfe Research.

    伊曼紐爾·羅斯納(Emmanuel Rosner),沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst

    Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst

  • Thank you so much. First question is, I was hoping you could give us a little more color on the drivers of guidance change and improvement in particular, you're obviously absorbing larger tariffs, $2 billion of tariffs that were not in the initial guidance. And so what are the drivers by bucket of improvement versus your previous outlook? And if at all possible, I'm curious about the EBIT, but also the free cash flow.

    太感謝了。第一個問題是,我希望您能給我們更多地說明指導變化和改進的驅動因素,特別是,您顯然吸收了更大的關稅,20 億美元的關稅不在最初的指導中。那麼與您先前的展望相比,推動改善的因素有哪些?如果可能的話,我對息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 和自由現金流都很好奇。

  • Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer

    Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. So let me just first commenting on the guidance. So our net tariff was estimated at $2 billion our guidance came down $1 billion. So our guidance illustrates the strong improvement in our business. We also kept our free cash flow the same versus the outset of the year at $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion.

    當然。因此,首先讓我對該指導進行評論。因此,我們的淨關稅估計為 20 億美元,我們的指導價下降了 10 億美元。因此,我們的指導表明我們的業務強勁改善。我們的自由現金流也與年初持平,為 35 億美元至 45 億美元。

  • And the $8 billion to$9 billion for CapEx is approximately the high -- it's the high end of our prior guidance. The guidance is underpinned by the strong performance in the business, which is primarily in the cost area. And as you know, we have a target of $1 billion of net improvement on a year-over-year basis.

    80億至90億美元的資本支出大約是最高水準——這是我們先前指引的高端。該指引以業務的強勁表現為基礎,主要體現在成本領域。如你們所知,我們的目標是實現年淨成長 10 億美元。

  • We're making terrific progress on that, as you're seeing in our numbers. And we're really focused on sustainable improvement in warranty and material costs that will make its way into 2026 and beyond. And currently, we have a very fulsome pipeline of opportunities to support that.

    正如您從我們的數據中看到的那樣,我們在這方面取得了巨大的進展。我們真正關注的是保固和材料成本的可持續改進,這將持續到 2026 年及以後。目前,我們擁有非常充分的機會來支持這一點。

  • Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst

    Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. I appreciate that. So this is mostly -- because that was already your target, this cost improvement, $1 billion ex tariffs. So are you targeting a larger number now? I'm just trying to understand why sort of like the underlying performance better.

    好的。我很感激。所以這主要是——因為這已經是你的目標,就是成本改善,10 億美元(不含關稅)。那麼,您現在的目標是更大的數字嗎?我只是想了解為什麼底層性能會更好。

  • I guess, where do you expect that underlying performance better to materialize on a full year basis?

    我想,您認為全年基本業績表現會好到哪裡去呢?

  • James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • We've seen it in manufacturing efficiency and our negotiated cost for parts -- those are two areas where we've accelerated past our own targets. There have been some ins and outs on the $1 billion, but those are the real strong parts of the business that we see -- and also, obviously, the market equation for Pro is very strong.

    我們已經在製造效率和零件協商成本方面看到了這一點——在這兩個領域,我們已經超越了自己的目標。關於這 10 億美元有一些來龍去脈,但這些是我們看到的業務中真正強勁的部分——而且,顯然,Pro 的市場方程式非常強勁。

  • Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst

    Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Understood. And then separately, Jim, I was curious, on the back of some of the recent changes in the US regulations and a more relaxed environment. Curious about Ford's appetite to potentially be more strategic about some of the spending on the EV side and whether there's actually room to potentially cut this back in any sort of material amount in the future once you get a chance to essentially assess the impact of these software regulations?

    好的。明白了。另外,吉姆,我很好奇,美國法規最近發生了一些變化,環境也變得更加寬鬆。好奇福特是否有興趣在電動車方面的部分支出上採取更具策略性的措施,以及一旦您有機會評估這些軟體法規的影響,未來是否真的有可能大幅削減這部分支出?

  • James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, you're absolutely right. The EPA is decision and their posture has really changed a lot in the US And being number 2 to Tesla and EVs, we've learned a lot in the last three years and having a full range of truck hybrids. We've learned a lot -- and there's no doubt about it that we've had to change our EV spending and capital allocation pretty large, pretty massively. You and a lot of investors, hopefully, we'll get a chance to come to Kentucky.

    嗯,你完全正確。美國環保署做出了決定,他們的立場在美國確實發生了很大變化,作為僅次於特斯拉和電動車的第二大市場,我們在過去三年中學到了很多東西,並擁有全系列的混合動力卡車。我們學到了很多東西——毫無疑問,我們必須大幅改變我們的電動車支出和資本配置。希望您和許多投資者有機會來到肯塔基州。

  • You're going to see the future of our EV platform shift from where our first-generation products are to now. We've definitely moved out launches. We cancelled some products. We've made the right choices in terms of battery chemistry change like in Michigan, I think we're very well positioned for the reality of the EV market with the customers today. I'm equally excited about the changes we're making in our powertrain choice. We're kind of moving from being the dominant player in truck hybrids in the US to offering ERAs, PHEVs and a full range of hybrids across our lineup, especially our bigger vehicles.

    您將看到我們的電動車平台的未來從第一代產品轉變為現在的產品。我們確實已經撤出了發射場。我們取消了一些產品。我們在電池化學變化方面做出了正確的選擇,就像在密西根州一樣,我認為我們已經為當今電動車市場的現實做好了充分的準備。我對我們在動力系統選擇上所做的改變同樣感到興奮。我們正在從美國卡車混合動力市場的主導者轉變為在我們的產品線中提供 ERA、PHEV 和全系列混合動力汽車,尤其是大型車輛。

  • We think that's a much better move than a $60,000 to $70,000 all electric crossover. We think that that's really what customers are going to want long term. And we're investing a lot in more durable ice powertrains. The good news is that we've always built our business around flexibility of the powertrain. So our manufacturing operations can adjust to these -- and a lot of the EV spending that's come down has been reallocated to Pro, including pro services.

    我們認為這比售價 6 萬至 7 萬美元的全電動跨界車要好得多。我們認為這確實是客戶長期想要的。我們在更耐用的冰上動力系統方面投入了大量資金。好消息是,我們始終圍繞著動力系統的靈活性來開展業務。因此,我們的製造業務可以適應這些情況——許多下降的電動車支出已重新分配給專業領域,包括專業服務。

  • I think that's going to be great for our investors and great for the employees. We think the rule maker will be finalized by December and in the short term, we've already made mix changes. We've descaled our credits, our CO2 credits by $1.5 billion already there may be more opportunities on the mix side for next year, as you said, as we fully evaluate these opportunities. Not much is happening in Europe and the rest of the world. This is really just a big shift in the US and a big opportunity for Ford.

    我認為這對我們的投資者和員工來說都是一件好事。我們認為規則制定者將在 12 月之前完成,並且在短期內我們已經做出了混合更改。我們已經將我們的信用額度(二氧化碳信用額度)減少了 15 億美元,正如您所說,隨著我們全面評估這些機會,明年混合方面可能會有更多機會。歐洲和世界其他地區沒有發生太多事情。這其實是美國的重大轉變,也是福特的一次重大機會。

  • Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst

    Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

    偉大的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dan Levy, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的丹·利維。

  • Dan Levy - Analyst

    Dan Levy - Analyst

  • Hi, good evening. Thank you for taking the questions. First question maybe is for Jim, Kumar, one of you can opine on this. There was a blog post, Kumar about two weeks ago on the back of your recall. And there's a comment in there that you're applying higher standards. But with that, you're now going to potentially find issues that on previous model year vehicles that maybe haven't been reported yet.

    嗨,晚上好。感謝您回答這些問題。第一個問題可能是針對 Jim、Kumar 的,你們其中一位可以對此發表意見。庫馬爾,大約兩週前有一篇部落格文章討論了你的召回。其中有一條評論說您正在應用更高的標準。但這樣一來,您現在就有可能發現前幾款車型上可能尚未報告的問題。

  • So I appreciate that the warranty coverage is getting better. But it seems like the recall piece is remaining a headwind. So what confidence is there that the recall piece is going to improve, especially as there may be now with higher quality standards, additional recalls now that you need to report.

    因此,我很高興看到保固範圍越來越廣。但召回事件似乎仍是個阻力。那麼,對於召回情況會有所改善,您有何信心呢?尤其是現在可能出現了更高的品質標準,需要報告更多的召回。

  • Kumar Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer

    Kumar Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks for the question, Dan. As I mentioned, two big components, 60% coverage is getting better, solid evidence there. FSAs have a much longer arc. But that all FSAs are directly tied to higher cost.

    是的。謝謝你的提問,丹。正如我所提到的,有兩個主要組成部分,60%的覆蓋率正在變得更好,這是確鑿的證據。FSA 的弧度更長。但所有 FSA 都與更高的成本直接相關。

  • For example, we've had a lot of software FSAs that are a lot cheaper to fix. And there are some early indicators that the vehicles, for example, '23 to '25 model year are substantially lower in FSA costs than the previous '22 to '24 model year window. But I think it's way too early to really draw any conclusions on FSAs yet because the longer arc is driven by our need to turn over the entire car park before you can clear out all the older issues. So I would say good improvement on the coverage side.

    例如,我們有很多軟體 FSA,修復起來便宜得多。並且有一些早期指標表明,例如 23 至 25 款車型的 FSA 成本明顯低於之前的 22 至 24 款車型。但我認為現在就對 FSA 得出任何結論還為時過早,因為更長的弧線是由我們需要移交整個停車場才能清除所有舊問題所驅動的。所以我認為覆蓋範圍方面有了很大的改善。

  • For example, in Second quarter was better year-over-year if we exclude that special FSA and coverage costs are significantly down versus second half of last year.

    例如,如果我們排除特殊 FSA 和覆蓋成本,那麼第二季度的業績年會更好,因為與去年下半年相比,覆蓋成本大幅下降。

  • So mixed strong progress and more coverages, FSA are still a bit opaque.

    因此,儘管 FSA 取得了強勁進展並覆蓋範圍更廣,但其仍然有點不透明。

  • Dan Levy - Analyst

    Dan Levy - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you. Maybe if I could just as a second question, ask about your recent market share performance, which has been quite strong. And maybe you could just talk to, a, the $1 billion offset on the tariffs on the market factors, how you're thinking about that between share and price. And b, do you believe that your share is sustainable given we are now seeing some tariff relief? How committed are you to the current market share that you gained.

    偉大的。謝謝。也許我可以問第二個問題,詢問您最近的市佔率表現,表現相當強勁。也許您可以談談,10 億美元的關稅抵銷對市場因素的影響,您如何看待市場佔有率和價格之間的關係。b,鑑於我們現在看到一些關稅減免,您是否認為您的份額是可持續的?您對目前獲得的市場佔有率有多大的投入?

  • Andrew Frick - President, Ford Blue and Model e

    Andrew Frick - President, Ford Blue and Model e

  • Yeah. Thanks, Dan. It's Andrew. On the sustainability of our share, we do believe we will be able to carry that performance into the second half. We've seen -- from an industry perspective, we saw a very strong first half of the year.

    是的。謝謝,丹。我是安德魯。就我們份額的可持續性而言,我們確實相信我們能夠將這種表現延續到下半年。從產業角度來看,我們看到今年上半年表現非常強勁。

  • We did start to see some pullback in demand, which we then -- which we now expect to see a softer second half with a full year industry of around 16% to 16.5%.

    我們確實開始看到需求有所回落,然後我們——現在我們預計下半年將會更加疲軟,全年產業成長率將在 16% 至 16.5% 左右。

  • In the world of pricing around that, we expect a share sets net pricing around flat full year. What we've seen in the retail side of the business is pricing has been a little bit higher. So we expect to see pricing up about 1%. On the commercial side, we've seen a little bit more pricing pressure, but our Super Duty pricing has remained really strong. So overall, we see flat net pricing.

    在這樣的定價環境下,我們預計 A 股全年淨定價將基本持平。我們看到零售業務的定價略高一些。因此我們預計價格將上漲約 1%。在商業方面,我們看到了更多的定價壓力,但我們的 Super Duty 定價仍然非常強勁。因此總體而言,我們看到淨價格持平。

  • But our stock positions are in good shape as we look at the second half of the market. The industry where it is strong is in segments we do well in -- and so we think we'll be able to carry that into the second half of the year.

    但從市場下半場來看,我們的股票狀況良好。我們的優勢產業正是我們擅長的領域——因此我們認為我們能夠將這種優勢延續到今年下半年。

  • Dan Levy - Analyst

    Dan Levy - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

    偉大的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Mark Delaney, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的馬克·德萊尼。

  • Mark Delaney - Analyst

    Mark Delaney - Analyst

  • Yeah, thank you very much for taking the question. I just had a question around the changing emissions policy environment. I'm hoping you can better help investors better understand how Board is balancing the opportunity to see improved mix and lower costs as a result of the change in emission policies in the US, while also remaining competitive with your EV technology, including relative to the Chinese domestic OEMs that are increasingly selling their vehicles on a more global basis? Thanks.

    是的,非常感謝您回答這個問題。我只是對不斷變化的排放政策環境有一個疑問。我希望您能更好地幫助投資者更好地理解董事會如何平衡因美國排放政策變化而改善產品組合和降低成本的機會,同時保持電動車技術的競爭力,包括相對於越來越多地在全球銷售汽車的中國國內原始設備製造商而言?謝謝。

  • James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, we're already reducing our credit buys. We are changing our mix towards the fourth quarter of this year, and we see a pretty big opportunity next year. As I said, multibillion dollar opportunity over the next couple of years. On the EV side, I'm really excited to show everyone where we're going on our EV, we've been busy the last three years kind of behind the curtain, no one could really see how we're allocating our capital and what our new EV strategy. We are out of sync in a good way with our competitors who are now fully loaded with all their EVs, and they'll have to commit to them for a full cycle of product.

    是的,我們已經在減少信用購買。我們正在改變今年第四季的產品組合,並且我們看到明年的一個相當大的機會。正如我所說,未來幾年將有數十億美元的商機。在電動車方面,我很高興向大家展示我們的電動車發展方向,過去三年我們一直在幕後忙碌,沒有人真正了解我們如何分配資本以及我們的新電動車策略。我們與競爭對手的同步性很好,他們現在已經完全配備了電動車,他們必須致力於整個產品週期。

  • Ours is coming out in the next year or starting. So you're going to see a lot of news from Ford on our EVs and our strategy is very simple. We believe the only way to really compete effectively with the Chinese over the globe on EVs is to go and really push ourselves to radically re-engineer and transform our engineering, supply chain and manufacturing process. And that will come to life soon, and I'm excited to show everyone.

    我們的產品將在明年或年初推出。因此,您將會看到福特發布許多有關電動車的新聞,我們的策略非常簡單。我們相信,在電動車領域與中國企業進行全球有效競爭的唯一方法是真正推動我們徹底重新設計和改造我們的工程、供應鏈和製造流程。它很快就會變成現實,我很高興向大家展示。

  • This is the Model T moment for the company, as I said, and that will become clear for us. We really see not the global OEMs as a competitive set for our next generation of EVs, we see the Chinese, companies like GE and BYD. And that's how we built our vehicle, how we've engineered what kind of supply chain we've used and the kind of low content in our manufacturing. And a key part of that is our LFP battery built in March from Michigan. And it's a big advantage for the company.

    正如我所說,這是公司的 T 型車時刻,這一點我們將會清楚。我們確實不認為全球原始設備製造商是我們下一代電動車的競爭對手,我們看到的是中國公司,如通用電氣和比亞迪。這就是我們製造汽車的方式、設計所使用的供應鏈類型以及製造過程中的低含量成分的方式。其中一個關鍵部分是我們三月在密西根州製造的 LFP 電池。這對公司來說是一個巨大的優勢。

  • We're the first one to build it at scale. It also has a PTC-- we're thankful that Congress upheld that. That's a key part of our profitability road map to transition in these lower-cost batteries I can't wait to show you the product and the platform. So stay tuned.

    我們是第一個大規模建造它的人。它還擁有 PTC——我們很感謝國會支持這一點。這是我們獲利路線圖的關鍵部分,旨在向這些低成本電池轉型,我迫不及待地想向您展示該產品和平台。敬請關注。

  • Mark Delaney - Analyst

    Mark Delaney - Analyst

  • Looking forward to it. My other question was on autonomy. The company made the decision to shut down Argo about three years ago given the time to market and returns considerations for robotaxi -- but today, there's a number of robotaxis now on the road, a partial and fully autonomous technology is improving.

    非常期待。我的另一個問題是關於自治的。大約三年前,考慮到自動駕駛計程車的上市時間和回報考慮,該公司決定關閉 Argo——但如今,道路上已經有許多自動駕駛計程車,部分和完全自動駕駛技術正在不斷改進。

  • So I'm hoping to better understand where Ford stands on Level 3 and Level 4 technology. And how important do you think partial or fully autonomous technology may be in driving the kind of recurring and more durable profits that the company is targeting. Thanks.

    所以我希望能更了解福特在 3 級和 4 級技術方面的立場。您認為部分或完全自動化技術對於推動公司所追求的經常性和更持久的利潤有多重要?謝謝。

  • James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • I see BlueCruise has done really well for us. The margins have held up. The pricing for Level 2 and Level 2+ looks a lot more robust than a lot of the other ADAS features. So I think we're off to the races, and we will continue to over their update improvements to Blue cruise, lane change, ramp to ramp. We have a lot of opportunities to increase the ODD, and I think that profit and those margins will stay strong for a few years until it starts to commoditize.

    我看到 BlueCruise 確實為我們帶來了極大的幫助。利潤率一直保持穩定。2 級和 2+ 級的定價看起來比許多其他 ADAS 功能的定價要合理得多。所以我認為我們已經開始了比賽,我們將繼續更新改進藍色巡航、車道變換、坡道到坡道等。我們有很多機會來增加 ODD,我認為利潤和利潤率將在幾年內保持強勁,直到它開始商品化。

  • We are making a lot of progress on our Level 3 system and that will be a major moment for the company.

    我們的 3 級系統正在取得很大進展,這對公司來說將是一個重要時刻。

  • We really believe this is the key opportunity for retail customers. And we have the right team, all those Argo engineers who stayed at Ford. They've been really busy enhancing Level 2 and building out a Level 3. So stay tuned, and I can't wait to show everyone. We are not going to be the first with a Level 3 system at low speed, for example, that are out there today.

    我們確實相信這是零售客戶的關鍵機會。我們擁有合適的團隊,所有那些留在福特的 Argo 工程師。他們一直忙於增強 2 級並構建 3 級。所以請繼續關注,我迫不及待想向大家展示。例如,我們不會成為第一個推出目前市面上的 3 級低速系統的公司。

  • We want a fully functioning Level 3 high-speed highway application with a really decent ODD where a lot of thousands, millions of customers would be able to use the system. On L4, we've been thinking a lot about our strategy after Argo what looks very interesting to me is the service side of that. These are large fleets. They're going to need someone to adjust the instrumentation and repair those vehicles and Ford Pro is a fantastic partner for fleet management of those large fleets.

    我們希望有一個功能齊全的 3 級高速公路應用程序,配備一個真正不錯的 ODD,成千上萬的客戶可以使用該系統。在 L4 上,我們一直在思考 Argo 之後的策略,對我來說非常有趣的是服務方面。這些都是大型艦隊。他們需要有人來調整儀表並修復這些車輛,而 Ford Pro 是這些大型車隊管理的絕佳合作夥伴。

  • And they're no different than our transavance. There are some differences, but we think we're really well positioned to take advantage of the very profitable parts and service as well as offering Level 4 to some of our commercial customers in a van format.

    它們和我們的 transavance 沒什麼不同。雖然存在一些差異,但我們認為我們確實處於有利地位,可以利用非常有利的零件和服務,並以貨車形式向我們的一些商業客戶提供 4 級服務。

  • And we'll have more news coming on that. But I suspect, but that's where we're really focusing on Level 4.

    我們將會發布更多相關新聞。但我懷疑,這正是我們真正關注的 4 級。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joseph Spak, UBS.

    瑞銀的約瑟夫·斯帕克。

  • Joseph Spak - Analyst

    Joseph Spak - Analyst

  • Thanks so much. Jim, I wanted to get your pulse on I guess, a, what you're hearing, but maybe more importantly, what Ford wants in light of some of the tariff discussions have been happening and what might happen with Mexico as Japan and Europe now got reduced tariffs.

    非常感謝。吉姆,我想了解你所聽到的內容,但也許更重要的是,鑑於正在進行的一些關稅討論,福特想要什麼,以及隨著日本和歐洲的關稅降低,墨西哥可能會發生什麼。

  • Because on the one hand, obviously, lower tariffs are going to help you, absolutely. On the other hand, it's a relative disadvantage for you versus maybe some of your competitors given your US footprint. Maybe you could help us understand the range of outcomes on the USMCA negotiations that you're planning for. Should we think about a 15% rate or lower or is it more nuanced than that given the US content requirements. So I guess, basically, like what is Ford really lobbying for in the conversations with the administration.

    因為一方面,顯然降低關稅絕對對你有幫助。另一方面,考慮到您在美國的業務,與某些競爭對手相比,這對您來說是一個相對劣勢。也許您可以幫助我們了解您所規劃的 USMCA 談判的一系列結果。我們是否應該考慮 15% 或更低的稅率,或者考慮到美國的內容要求,稅率是否比這更微妙。所以我猜,基本上,福特在與政府的對話中真正遊說的是什麼。

  • James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • I think to put it simply, Ford as a leading auto producer in the US and the leading exporter with the most UAW workers. We're very clear with the administration. We want to simplify the tariffs so that we can make up for that gap between the bilateral import tariff rates and what we're paying in our tariff bill. Our Tarif bills $2 billion.

    我認為簡單地說,福特是美國領先的汽車生產商和擁有最多 UAW 工人的領先出口商。我們對政府的態度非常明確。我們希望簡化關稅,以便彌補雙邊進口關稅稅率與我們支付的關稅費用之間的差距。我們的關稅為20億美元。

  • And that's a net number. We see there's a lot of upside depending on how the negotiation goes with the administration. We're in daily contact with them. And at this point, I would say they're very productive conversations we'll give you more news when we get it.

    這是一個淨數字。我們認為,有很多好處,這取決於與政府的談判進展如何。我們每天都與他們保持聯繫。在這一點上,我想說這是非常富有成效的對話,當我們得到更多消息時,我們會告訴你們。

  • But we have a lot of opportunity even as the most American company with a $2 billion liability, we have a lot of opportunities to simplify especially parts tariffs and reduce that liability considerably, which would be upside for the company. The reality is our competitors now all have to pay 15% import and hire from Mexico. They can't change the footprint anytime soon. Those tariffs were not around a year ago. This is an opportunity for Ford.

    但我們有很多機會,即使作為一家負債 20 億美元的美國公司,我們也有很多機會簡化特別是零件關稅,並大幅減少負債,這對公司來說是有利的。現實情況是,我們的競爭對手現在都必須支付 15% 的從墨西哥進口和租賃費用。他們無法很快改變足跡。這些關稅一年前還不存在。這對福特來說是一個機會。

  • Yeah, it may be less than 25%. But I think we found with administration, they're really committed to companies like Ford, and they are going to work hard to reduce that liability.

    是的,可能低於25%。但我認為我們發現,管理層確實致力於福特這樣的公司,他們會努力減少這種責任。

  • Joseph Spak - Analyst

    Joseph Spak - Analyst

  • Thank for that. I guess just maybe sticking on policy. I heard you mentioned, I think you said you're going to scale back compliance credits by $1 billion, $1.5 billion. Did you mean purchases? Or is that what you are -- like what was -- what are you what were you planning to expense this year in the guidance? And what are you planning to expense now?

    謝謝。我想也許只是堅持政策。我聽到您提到過,我想您說過要將合規信貸削減 10 億美元到 15 億美元。您指的是購買嗎?或者這就是你的情況——就像——你計劃在今年的指導中支出多少?您現在計劃花多少錢?

  • I know you did about $200 million last year. I'm just trying to think about how much of a profit tailwind that could be in 2016 and beyond.

    我知道你去年賺了大約2億美元。我只是在思考這對 2016 年及以後的利潤會有多大的推動作用。

  • Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer

    Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. We're we've expensed about $200 million thus far. And I think you could think about that being a reasonable quarterly rate going forward. So not significant.

    是的。到目前為止我們已經花了大約 2 億美元。我認為您可以認為這是未來合理的季度利率。所以並不重要。

  • James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • And on the credit side, it's very clear to us that the California situation has changed a lot, so we can descale our credit contracts and our purchases, and that will be material for the company. The most material for Ford in the end is going to be changing our mix. We have high demand for our Pro and larger SUVs right now.

    在信貸方面,我們很清楚加州的情況已經發生了很大變化,因此我們可以減少信貸合約和採購,這對公司來說意義重大。最終,對福特來說最重要的事情就是改變我們的產品組合。目前,我們的 Pro 和大型 SUV 的需求量很大。

  • We have high demand for some of our non-electrified powertrains and changing that mix is a multibillion-dollar opportunity in the next couple of years. So that's what's going to come through for the business. We just have to finalize the rule making, which probably won't happen until the end of the year.

    我們對一些非電動動力系統的需求很高,改變這個結構將在未來幾年帶來數十億美元的商機。這就是企業將要達成的目標。我們只需要最終確定規則制定,這可能要到今年年底才能完成。

  • Dan Levy - Analyst

    Dan Levy - Analyst

  • Thanks so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Federico Morandi, Bank of America.

    費德里科·莫蘭迪,美國銀行。

  • Federico Morandi - Analyst

    Federico Morandi - Analyst

  • Good evening, guys. Sorry about that. Just wanted to touch upon the electrification initiatives. And I understand that now the regulation has changed and the overall environment in the US has shifted. But I was wondering, how does board balances, the different commitments in the regions where it operates like the US, Europe and even China in terms of capital investments on the electrification portion of the business.

    大家晚上好。很抱歉。只是想談談電氣化措施。我知道現在法規已經改變,美國的整體環境也改變了。但我想知道,董事會如何平衡其在美國、歐洲甚至中國等營運地區的不同承諾,以及在電氣化業務的資本投資方面所做的不同承諾。

  • James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Thank you. We really see the pure EV market in the US seems to us very clear. Small vehicles used for commuting and around town, so to speak. And we've been working really hard with our Skunk Works project and can't wait to show everyone where that lands.

    是的。謝謝。我們確實看到美國的純電動車市場對我們來說非常清晰。可以說是用於通勤和城鎮周圍行駛的小型車輛。我們一直在努力開展我們的臭鼬工廠項目,迫不及待地想向大家展示其成果。

  • And commercial. We've been the dominant player in commercial EV in the US, and we think that's going to be a robust business. but we want to shrink the number of top hats. We've always focused and told investors we want to have a very simple lineup with not a lot of complexity in top hats. We have some of our competitors that have 10 or 15 top hats.

    並且具有商業性。我們一直是美國商用電動車領域的主導者,我們認為這將是一項強勁的業務。但我們希望減少高頂禮帽的數量。我們始終專注於並告訴投資者,我們希望擁有一個非常簡單的產品陣容,並且不會有太多複雜的禮帽。我們的一些競爭對手有 10 或 15 頂高頂禮帽。

  • That's not our strategy. We're going to have just a few.

    這不是我們的策略。我們只會有少數。

  • And we've made the adjustments in timing, we think, and to be in segments where we can actually make money on EVs. Globally, we're focused heavily on partnerships. Partnerships for EV, we think, is the right strategy. We believe that the supply chain and the platforms are quickly commoditizing. You cannot differentiate yourself on that aspect, especially for a vehicle.

    我們認為,我們已經在時間上做出了調整,並進入了我們能夠真正從電動車上賺錢的領域。在全球範圍內,我們非常重視合作關係。我們認為,與電動車公司建立合作關係是正確的策略。我們相信供應鏈和平台正在迅速商品化。你無法在這方面脫穎而出,尤其是對於車輛而言。

  • Now it is a little complicated with electric architecture. You've got to work through that. But we know how to do that now. We've been partnering with JMC and other brands globally for a while. We know how to do the -- we think we know how to do the electric architecture with a partner.

    現在電氣架構有點複雜。你必須努力解決這個問題。但我們現在知道該怎麼做了。我們與江鈴汽車以及全球其他品牌合作一段時間了。我們知道如何做——我們認為我們知道如何與合作夥伴一起做電氣架構。

  • And you should expect from Ford in these other regions where electrification is very important to partner where we need to and we will use [Phab] and other solutions for commercial customers that make sense for them based on the local registration requirements.

    您應該期望福特在這些電氣化非常重要的其他地區與我們有需要的合作夥伴合作,並且我們將根據當地的註冊要求為商業客戶提供對他們有意義的 [Phab] 和其他解決方案。

  • I think we have a good strategy. It's been -- I have to say I'm very thankful that we move fast because we learned about the market changing maybe before our competitors, and we can reload our capital and have the right planning for this new reality of pure EVs.

    我認為我們有一個很好的策略。我必須說,我非常感謝我們行動迅速,因為我們可能比競爭對手更早了解到市場變化,我們可以重新加載資本,並為純電動車這一新現實做好正確的規劃。

  • Federico Morandi - Analyst

    Federico Morandi - Analyst

  • Thank you, Jim. And my second question would be on the mitigating factors for tariffs from what we've heard, basically, you boarded even our OEMs are kind of moving some redesigning their vehicles and putting some content that was standard into optional with a new model here. From your internal analysis, how do you expect customers to react from these changes?

    謝謝你,吉姆。我的第二個問題是關於關稅的緩解因素,從我們所聽到的消息來看,基本上,甚至我們的原始設備製造商都在重新設計他們的車輛,並將一些標準內容變成新車型的可選內容。從您的內部分析來看,您預期客戶對這些變化會如何反應?

  • James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Do you mean recontenting or could you be more specific? I just want to answer your question the right way.

    您是指重新內容嗎?或者可以更具體一點嗎?我只是想以正確的方式回答你的問題。

  • Federico Morandi - Analyst

    Federico Morandi - Analyst

  • Yeah, sure. With that, I mean, let's say, modular 2025, a certain vehicle with a certain term, which it had some standard content from what we have heard is that the same vehicle in model year 2026 has some content that basically the customer will have to pay up for that same content that last year was standard.

    是的,當然。就此而言,我的意思是,假設 2025 年的模組化車型,某種具有特定術語的車輛,它具有一些標準內容,據我們所知,2026 年款的同一款車輛具有一些內容,基本上客戶必須為去年的相同內容付費。

  • James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • I see, thank you for your question. Look, we -- in the segments that we compete a Bronco or an F-150 or Super Duty and explore, we do very well in those segments. So we watch our competitors really carefully. We'll match them on specification. But we also know what customers want in our trim series.

    我明白了,謝謝你的提問。你看,在我們與 Bronco、F-150 或 Super Duty 競爭並探索的領域,我們在這些領域做得非常好。所以我們非常仔細地觀察我們的競爭對手。我們將根據規格對它們進行匹配。但我們也知道客戶對我們的裝飾系列有什麼要求。

  • So Andrew, do you want to say anything about how we're changing our spec.

    那麼安德魯,你想說說我們如何改變我們的規格嗎?

  • Andrew Frick - President, Ford Blue and Model e

    Andrew Frick - President, Ford Blue and Model e

  • Well, we constantly look at our respect to customer wants, obviously, and that does change by segment, by vehicle line. We're also balancing the cost improvements that we're seeing across the vehicle lines as well. So we're using a lot of the vehicle off the data, a lot of the customer utilization rates to make -- help us make those informed decisions.

    嗯,顯然,我們始終關注客戶的需求,而這確實會隨著細分市場和車型系列的變化而變化。我們也在平衡整個車輛系列的成本改進。因此,我們使用了大量的車輛數據和客戶利用率來幫助我們做出明智的決定。

  • Federico Morandi - Analyst

    Federico Morandi - Analyst

  • Thank you guys.'

    謝謝你們。 ’

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom Narayan, RBC Capital Markets.

    加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的湯姆‧納拉揚 (Tom Narayan)。

  • Tom Narayan - Analyst

    Tom Narayan - Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks for taking the question. First one, I know you guys didn't give segment guidance, but just curious in terms of how we should think about for modeling. So if we look at the EV business, we know the consumer credit is going away in September that probably means some maybe stronger Q3, but then Q4 is negatively impacted.

    是的,感謝您提出這個問題。首先,我知道你們沒有給出分段指導,但只是好奇我們應該如何考慮建模。因此,如果我們看一下電動車業務,我們知道消費者信貸將在 9 月消失,這可能意味著第三季可能會表現更強勁,但第四季將受到負面影響。

  • Just curious if that results in lower sales EVs, the credit going away, is that -- is that actually a net positive for the EV EBIT being that each car is still losing money? Or is it that there's so much fixed costs associated that it would still be a headwind. Just curious how we should think about that dynamic?

    只是好奇,如果這導致電動車銷量下降,信貸消失,這是否真的對電動車息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 產生淨利好,因為每輛汽車仍在虧損?或者是涉及太多的固定成本,這仍然會是一個阻力。只是好奇我們該如何看待這種動態?

  • Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer

    Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. So as you get into that further in Q3 and Q4, if we were to pull back some of our US EV production, most likely, you would be moving that into other areas.

    是的。因此,隨著第三季和第四季的進一步深入,如果我們要撤回部分美國電動車生產,最有可能的是,我們會將其轉移到其他地區。

  • So maybe you'd be leaning a little bit more heavily into Europe, where the mix and the contribution margin is stronger or moving into ICE products. So you could calculate that you could have some uplift there on a financial basis if that was to play out as you described.

    因此,也許你會更傾向歐洲,那裡的產品組合和貢獻利潤率更高,或轉向 ICE 產品。因此,你可以計算出,如果事情按照你描述的方式發展,那麼你的財務基礎就會得到一些提升。

  • Tom Narayan - Analyst

    Tom Narayan - Analyst

  • Okay. And then we've been hearing from some of the European OEMs, some headwinds in the commercial vehicle side in Europe. I guess at a smaller piece of Pro, obviously, but just curious how you guys are managing that dynamic. I know in your prepared comments, you said you're gaining, I think, 3 points of share there at Pro in Europe, but -- how big of a headwind is that for you guys? Thanks.

    好的。然後我們從一些歐洲原始設備製造商那裡聽說,歐洲商用車方面面臨一些阻力。我猜這顯然是 Pro 的一小部分,但我只是好奇你們是如何管理這種動態的。我知道在您準備好的評論中,您說過您在歐洲 Pro 市場的份額獲得了 3 個百分點,但是——這對您來說有多大的阻力?謝謝。

  • James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, we are very successful at the one-ton transit business as well as the pickup market in Europe. And we have a brand-new vehicle. Literally, it's brand new. And so that's doing really well as is a brand-new Ranger. So we have this brand new lineup.

    嗯,我們在一噸運輸業務以及歐洲的皮卡市場都非常成功。我們還有一輛全新的車。從字面上看,它是全新的。因此,這款全新 Ranger 的表現確實非常好。所以我們有這個全新的陣容。

  • I don't know about the competitors and where they are in their age of their products, but it seems that Ford, our Pro business in Europe is very strong now based on our new V710, the 1 ton. And then there's another factor that's important on our financial performance. This is a first generation where we are building for other people. We have the Volkswagen pickup truck as well as their van off our platform.

    我不知道競爭對手的情況,也不知道他們的產品處於什麼年代,但似乎福特,我們在歐洲的 Pro 業務現在非常強勁,這得益於我們新的 1 噸 V710。還有一個對我們的財務表現很重要的因素。這是我們為他人建造的第一代。我們的平台上有大眾皮卡車和貨車。

  • We're now starting to scale their platform, and that is really helping our cost basis. And remember, our cost base in South Africa and Turkey, so they're very low. So the other -- the other reason is we're not only increasing our performance because of the new products, we're also becoming more profitable on a margin basis because of our cost. And that's a good thing for us.

    我們現在開始擴展他們的平台,這確實有助於降低我們的成本基礎。請記住,我們的成本基礎在南非和土耳其,所以成本非常低。因此,另一個原因是,我們不僅因為新產品而提高了業績,而且由於成本的降低,我們的利潤率也提高了。這對我們來說是件好事。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Daniel Roeska, Bernstein SG.

    丹尼爾·羅斯卡(Daniel Roeska),伯恩斯坦 SG。

  • Daniel Roeska - Analyst

    Daniel Roeska - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks for taking my questions. Maybe, Jim, after the discussion on tariffs and the changing and compliance regulations. If we take a step back, imagine tariffs stay in place, but you get a more streamlined emission standard in the US.

    嘿,謝謝你回答我的問題。也許吧,吉姆,在討論關稅以及變更和合規法規之後。如果我們退一步想一想,想像關稅保持不變,但美國的排放標準更加精簡。

  • So that, as you explained, enables a lower compliance costs and probably a better mix over time. What do you think are those two wash traded off against each other? Or is that actually a meaningful positive tailwind, if I kind of sum up the impact of medium-term tariff changes and medium-term emissions changes.

    因此,正如您所解釋的,這可以降低合規成本,並且隨著時間的推移可能會實現更好的組合。您認為這兩種洗滌劑的相互抵消效果如何?或者,如果我總結中期關稅變化和中期排放變化的影響,這實際上是一個有意義的積極順風。

  • James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, it's a great question. I think it's a bit tricky at this point in time to handicap the ins and outs on that. But I would say the emissions tailwind is pretty substantial, both on Model e as Sherry said, but also on our Blue and Pro business, especially blue, which has taken the brunt of the electrification journey globally.

    是的,這是一個很好的問題。我認為,目前要確定這一問題的來龍去脈是有點棘手的。但我想說,排放的順風是相當可觀的,不僅對 Model e 如此,正如 Sherry 所說,對我們的 Blue 和 Pro 業務也是如此,尤其是 Blue,它在全球電氣化進程中承受了巨大的衝擊。

  • So I would say I think we're I think we're -- and that is not the reason why we increased our guidance. Our guidance was, as Jerry said, based on real cost traction. But if you had to handicap the second half of this year and next year and what could go right, I mean, depending on how the submissions works out, that's definitely a tailwind for Ford. I mean, look at the mix of our products with Pro and (inaudible) that -- to be able to build what customers really want is going to be a financial tailwind for us.

    所以我想說,我認為我們——這不是我們增加指導的原因。正如傑瑞所說,我們的指導是基於實際成本牽引力。但如果你必須預測今年下半年和明年可能會出現哪些順利的情況,我的意思是,這取決於提交的結果,這對福特來說絕對是一個順風。我的意思是,看看我們的產品與 Pro 和(聽不清楚)的組合——能夠打造客戶真正想要的產品將為我們帶來財務上的順風。

  • Daniel Roeska - Analyst

    Daniel Roeska - Analyst

  • Yes. Great. And maybe as a slide related follow-up, I'm going to ask you to take out the crystal ball to some degree. With each additional Paris deal that is trade deal that's coming in like Japan and Europe, would you agree that this kind of increases the likelihood we will not return to pre- on policy landscape when it comes to global trade.

    是的。偉大的。也許作為與幻燈片相關的後續活動,我會要求您在一定程度上取出水晶球。隨著日本和歐洲等國相繼達成巴黎貿易協議,您是否同意這會增加我們在全球貿易方面不會回到先前的政策格局的可能性。

  • James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Can you explain a little bit more what you mean on the last part of that pre-2025?

    您能否進一步解釋一下「2025 年之前」的最後一部分是什麼意思?

  • Daniel Roeska - Analyst

    Daniel Roeska - Analyst

  • Well, basically, a very low tariff rate for imports into the US basically. And because the market has been discussing going back and forth, will to have stay in place, will they not stay in place. And to me, it seems like if we're now putting the hills with Europe and Japan and likely South Korea and then on top. I'm unsure whether the next administration would see any reason to change that again.

    嗯,基本上,美國進口商品的關稅稅率非常低。而且由於市場一直反覆討論,是否會留在原地,是否會不留在原地。對我來說,這就好像我們現在把歐洲、日本和韓國放在山上,然後在上面。我不確定下一屆政府是否會有理由再次改變這項政策。

  • James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • That is a really important question to answer. -- we increasingly see Europe, North America and Asia becoming kind of regional businesses with create tariff rates that are aligned for those three or four regions. And I believe that is a very long-term change because it's happening in multiple things, not just tariff. It's happening with electrification and CO2 requirements.

    這是一個非常重要的問題。 ——我們越來越常看到歐洲、北美和亞洲成為區域性企業,並制定與這三個或四個地區一致的關稅稅率。我相信這是一個非常長期的變化,因為它發生在多個方面,而不僅僅是關稅。這是隨著電氣化和二氧化碳要求而發生的。

  • And it will happen as well as the Chinese OEMs go global and start to localize outside of China, and they'll pick the regions and the regions will pick them. So I believe this is quite a fundamental change. We were just talking before the call started about how fundamental everything seems to be changing in the car business. And this is one factors.

    隨著中國原始設備製造商走向全球並開始在中國以外進行在地化,這種情況也會發生,他們會選擇地區,而地區也會選擇他們。所以我相信這是一個相當根本的改變。在電話會議開始之前,我們剛剛談到汽車產業似乎正在發生根本性的變化。這是其中一個因素。

  • And I do think USMCA negotiation is going to be very material for our North America health. And these tariffs feel like especially the ones in Europe and Asia into the US feel kind of long term for us. Are they big enough to change to radically change the footprint at this point in time, it doesn't look like it. Hard to tell.

    我確實認為 USMCA 談判對於我們北美的健康至關重要。對我們來說,這些關稅,尤其是歐洲和亞洲對美國的關稅,是長期的。它們是否足夠強大到可以徹底改變目前的足跡?看起來似乎還不行。很難說。

  • But that -- a lot of that will have to do with the administration's commitment to companies like Ford that committed to the US production. And what is their point of view going to be with this $2 billion liability we have -- and depending on -- again, we're having very constructive conversations with them being the most American company, you can imagine.

    但這很大程度上與政府對福特等致力於美國生產的公司的承諾有關。那麼,對於我們承擔的這 20 億美元債務,他們會怎麼想呢?這取決於——你可以想像,作為最具美國特色的公司,我們正在與他們進行非常建設性的對話。

  • But depending on how that works out, this could actually reverse and we could get a sustained advantage being an American company. So stay tuned.

    但根據具體情況,這種情況實際上可能會逆轉,作為一家美國公司,我們可以獲得持續的優勢。敬請關注。

  • Daniel Roeska - Analyst

    Daniel Roeska - Analyst

  • Brilliant. Thanks very much.

    傑出的。非常感謝。

  • James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Edison Yu, Deutsche Bank.

    德意志銀行的 Edison Yu。

  • Edison Yu - Analyst

    Edison Yu - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks for getting me in. First one, I wanted to ask about pricing. I think you called out some weakness on the commercial fleet side. Curious if you can elaborate a little more on that. And maybe just directionally, is that supposed to stay kind of a headwind through the rest of the year? Is that going to improve, become a smaller headwind, some color there would be great.

    嘿,謝謝你讓我加入。首先,我想問一下價格。我認為您指出了商業船隊方面的一些弱點。好奇您是否可以對此進行更詳細的闡述。也許只是從方向上看,這是否會在今年剩餘時間內保持一種逆風狀態?那會不會有所改善,逆風會變小,有些顏色會很棒。

  • Andrew Frick - President, Ford Blue and Model e

    Andrew Frick - President, Ford Blue and Model e

  • Hi, Edison, it's Andrew. Good to hear it from you. Just a little more texture on the commercial side. I think what we're seeing in the pricing is the full-size pickup is remaining relatively strong, which is really good. The weakness that we've seen has actually been across the van business in the van segments.

    你好,愛迪生,我是安德魯。很高興收到你的來信。只是在商業方面稍微多了一點質感。我認為我們在定價中看到的是全尺寸皮卡仍然保持相對強勁,這真的很好。我們看到的弱點實際上存在於整個貨車業務領域。

  • And there was a lot of competitive pressure that we saw coming out of the second half of last year and into the first part of this year. It seems to have stabilized actually. So we're actually optimistic around that holding for the rest of the year, but it was mostly in the van segment.

    我們看到,去年下半年到今年上半年競爭壓力很大。事實上似乎已經穩定下來了。因此,我們實際上對今年剩餘時間的持股持樂觀態度,但主要是在貨車領域。

  • Edison Yu - Analyst

    Edison Yu - Analyst

  • Got it. Got it. Thanks. Switching gears, I wanted to come back to a comment Jim earlier on autonomy. I think you mentioned that you could do something on the Ford Pro side, providing service. I'm curious what kind of what that would kind of maybe look like?

    知道了。知道了。謝謝。換個話題,我想回到吉姆之前關於自主性的評論。我想您提到您可以在 Ford Pro 方面做一些事情,提供服務。我很好奇那會是什麼樣子?

  • Would you go to like a certain part up to someone? And does that kind of rule out any interest in actually producing some sort of integrated autonomous vehicle?

    你會去喜歡某人的某個部分嗎?這是否排除了實際生產某種整合式自動駕駛汽車的興趣?

  • James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • It's early days. I mean we're in the first inning of this rolling out. It is very exciting for me to be in the industry in 40 years and see all these autonomous robo taxis. But the technology is fascinating. But as far as making money off the business, which we have to bet on our capital as leaders of the company, we think that if these robo taxi fleets are large fleets, I'm not sure it's going to be a super profitable business, but someone is going to make money on owning those fleets and maintaining those fleets.

    現在還為時過早。我的意思是,我們正處於這項舉措的第一階段。40 年後能夠進入這個行業並看到所有這些自動駕駛計程車,我感到非常興奮。但這項技術令人著迷。但就從業務中賺錢而言,作為公司領導者,我們必須押注我們的資本,我們認為,如果這些機器人出租車隊規模龐大,我不確定這是否會是一項超級盈利的業務,但有人會通過擁有和維護這些車隊來賺錢。

  • And this is a very congruous capability versus our service build-out for Pro. We have nothing to announce today, but this is quite intriguing for us as a company. We really feel like the fleet management opportunity is a big upside for Ford Pro. We're doing it digitally today. Part of those software that we sell that Andrew mentioned, that's growing at 24% is fleet management software.

    與我們為 Pro 提供的服務相比,這是一個非常一致的功能。我們今天沒有什麼要宣布的,但這對我們公司來說相當有趣。我們確實覺得車隊管理機會對 Ford Pro 來說是個巨大的優勢。今天我們採用數位化方式進行。在安德魯提到的我們銷售的軟體中,車隊管理軟體的成長率為 24%。

  • It's very popular going into the physical fleet management is a different thing. It takes capital. It will require leasing and a lot of other more capital-intensive investments. So we have to be thoughtful about that. but we are very intrigued about these robotaxi fleets, what they can mean for Pro and our dealers over time.

    它非常受歡迎,但進入實體車隊管理又是另一回事。這需要資本。它將需要租賃和許多其他資本密集的投資。所以我們必須認真考慮這一點。但我們對這些機器人計程車車隊非常感興趣,想知道它們對 Pro 和我們的經銷商來說意味著什麼。

  • Again, nothing to announce today -- but I think you've heard what we said pretty clearly.

    再說一次,今天沒有什麼可宣布的——但我想你已經非常清楚地聽到了我們所說的話。

  • Edison Yu - Analyst

    Edison Yu - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Colin Langan, Wells Fargo.

    富國銀行的科林·蘭根。

  • Colin Langan - Analyst

    Colin Langan - Analyst

  • Oh, great, thanks for taking my questions. I just want to cover the guide implies an improvement first half into the second half. I think SAR would imply think flat tariffs is supposed to be about flat -- what would drive that improvement in the second half.

    哦,太好了,感謝您回答我的問題。我只是想介紹一下指南中暗示的前半部分對後半部分有所改進的內容。我認為 SAR 意味著統一關稅應該保持穩定——這將推動下半年的改善。

  • Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer

    Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer

  • Well, we would have some of our material cost items are coming in, in the second half. Also a lot of the work that we put into place on warranty, working with the dealers, working on our time to repair. A lot of these things are also looking to be implemented in the back half as well. also just some of the volume issues with Kentucky One shutting down in the past. So you had the idled period.

    嗯,我們的一些材料成本項目將在下半年進入市場。我們也做了很多保固方面的工作,與經銷商合作,並及時進行維修。其中很多事情也希望在後半段實施。此外,肯塔基一號過去關閉時也存在一些數量問題。所以你經歷了一段閒置期。

  • So you're getting the now positive impact of not doing that and not having the destocking that we did in the first half.

    因此,現在你得到的是沒有這樣做並且沒有像上半年那樣去庫存的積極影響。

  • Colin Langan - Analyst

    Colin Langan - Analyst

  • And then -- you mentioned several times that I guess the guidance -- the underlying guidance seems to have improved because of cost. It's kind of surprising because you just had record recalls year-to-date. Can you parse that out? What is -- like what kind of actions are actually driving that cost that's better than what you expected back in January when you initially guided -- it feels like recall I got to imagine it's a bit worse, right?

    然後——你多次提到,我猜指導——潛在的指導似乎由於成本而有所改善。這有點令人驚訝,因為今年迄今為止的召回次數已經創下了紀錄。能分析一下嗎?什麼是——什麼樣的行動實際上推動了成本下降,這比您在一月份最初指導時所預期的要好——感覺就像我想像的那樣,情況有點糟糕,對吧?

  • James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Farley - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Just to be specific, as on recalls, we need to make it really clear to everyone that the number of recalls and the costs are not related. Half of our recalls this year are software. When we do a software recall, we can do an OTA, it's literally 10% of repairing something mechanical. And so that's just -- it's not -- it doesn't work like coverages where it's very correlated to the number of actions we have or defects -- and what we said before, and it's clearly happening.

    具體來說,就像召回一樣,我們需要向所有人明確表示,召回次數和成本是無關的。我們今年召回的產品有一半是軟體。當我們進行軟體召回時,我們可以進行 OTA,這實際上只佔機械修復的 10%。所以這只是 - 它不是 - 它不像覆蓋範圍那樣,它與我們採取的行動或缺陷的數量密切相關 - 以及我們之前所說的,而且它顯然正在發生。

  • The manufacturing team is finding a lot of efficiencies year-over-year, more than we expected. Obviously, in the $1 billion, we have all that broken down by function, by group all the way down by plant in the case of manufacturing, and Bryce's team has been able to accelerate beyond even in the logistics area of savings in our manufacturing.

    製造團隊的效率逐年提高,超出了我們的預期。顯然,在 10 億美元中,我們已經按功能、按組、按工廠(就製造而言)進行了細分,而布萊斯的團隊甚至能夠加速製造過程中物流領域的節省。

  • And the second would be, we have been more successful working with our suppliers on either getting a redesigned part or a negotiated part that's better. And that's great to see. And oh, by the way, we have really nice pipelines for next year.

    第二,我們與供應商的合作更加成功,無論是取得重新設計的零件或是協商好的零件。我很高興看到這一點。哦,順便說一下,我們為明年準備了非常好的管道。

  • Anything else to add, Kumar.

    還有什麼要補充的嗎,庫馬爾。

  • Kumar Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer

    Kumar Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer

  • The coverages are improving more coverage. So the cost of to be clear. It's also decreasing.

    覆蓋範圍正在不斷擴大。所以成本要明確。它也正在減少。

  • Colin Langan - Analyst

    Colin Langan - Analyst

  • So recall costs, even though we've seen a lot of headlines are actually not worse than you expected starting the year?

    因此,儘管我們已經看到很多頭條新聞,但召回成本實際上並不比您年初預期的要糟糕嗎?

  • Kumar Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer

    Kumar Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer

  • If you exclude that one big special item. Yes, the answer is yes but excluding the special item.

    如果你排除那一個特別大的項目。是的,答案是可以的,但是不包括特殊項目。

  • Colin Langan - Analyst

    Colin Langan - Analyst

  • Okay. All right, thanks for taking my questions.

    好的。好的,感謝您回答我的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes the Ford Motor Company second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Thank You For Your Participation. you May Now Disconnect.

    福特汽車公司 2025 年第二季財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。