戴爾 (DELL) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

戴爾科技集團公佈的 24 財年收入為 884 億美元,儘管收入有所下降,但仍注重卓越營運。該公司在人工智慧市場中定位良好,並在第四季度看到了積極的跡象,對人工智慧優化伺服器的需求強勁。

戴爾宣布將年度股息增加 20%,並為 25 財年提供指引,預計收入將在 910 億美元至 950 億美元之間。他們預計 ISG 和 CSG 業務將實現成長,並承諾根據其長期財務框架實現目標。

該公司對 25 財年及以後恢復成長持樂觀態度,重點關注人工智慧部署、儲存解決方案和競爭市場中的獲利能力。戴爾對其滿足人工智慧領域需求和發展的能力充滿信心,並透過穩定的現金產生使股東受益。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon, and welcome to the fiscal year 2024 Fourth Quarter and Year-end Financial Results Conference Call for Dell Technologies Inc. I'd like to inform all participants, this call is being recorded at the request of Dell Technologies. This broadcast is the copyrighted property of Dell Technologies Inc. Any rebroadcast of this information in whole or part without the prior written permission of Dell Technologies is prohibited.

    下午好,歡迎參加戴爾科技集團 2024 財年第四季和年終財務業績電話會議。我想通知所有與會者,本次電話會議是應戴爾科技集團的要求進行錄音的。本廣播是 Dell Technologies Inc. 的版權財產。未經 Dell Technologies 事先書面許可,禁止全部或部分轉播此資訊。

  • Following prepared remarks, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) I'd like to turn the call over to Rob Williams, Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Williams, you may begin.

    在準備好的發言之後,我們將進行問答環節。 (操作員說明)我想將電話轉給投資人關係主管 Rob Williams。威廉斯先生,您可以開始了。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • Thanks, everyone, for joining us. With me today are Jeff Clarke, Yvonne McGill and Tyler Johnson. Our earnings materials are available on our IR website, and I encourage you to review these materials and the presentation, which includes additional content to complement our discussion this afternoon. Guidance will be covered on today's call.

    謝謝大家加入我們。今天和我在一起的有傑夫克拉克、伊馮麥吉爾和泰勒約翰遜。我們的收益資料可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到,我鼓勵您查看這些資料和演示文稿,其中包括補充我們今天下午討論的其他內容。今天的電話會議將討論指導意見。

  • During this call, unless otherwise indicated, all references to financial measures refer to non-GAAP financial measures, including non-GAAP gross margin, operating expenses, operating income, net income, diluted earnings per share and adjusted free cash flow. The reconciliation of these measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in our web deck and our press release. Growth percentages refer to year-over-year change, unless otherwise specified.

    在本次電話會議中,除非另有說明,所有提及的財務指標均指非GAAP 財務指標,包括非GAAP 毛利率、營運費用、營運收入、淨利潤、稀釋每股盈餘和調整後自由現金流。這些指標與其最直接可比較的公認會計原則指標的調節可以在我們的網路平台和新聞稿中找到。除非另有說明,增長百分比指的是同比變化。

  • Statements made during this call that relate to future results and events are forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results and events could differ materially from those projected due to a number of risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our web deck and SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

    本次電話會議期間發表的與未來結果和事件相關的聲明是基於當前預期的前瞻性聲明。由於許多風險和不確定性,實際結果和事件可能與預測有重大差異,這些風險和不確定性在我們的網路平台和 SEC 文件中進行了討論。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

  • Now I'll turn it over to Jeff.

    現在我把它交給傑夫。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Thanks, Rob, and thanks, everyone, for joining us. As I reflect back on this past year, it's increasingly clear that data and technology are essential to everything our customers do, and Dell is well positioned to thrive in this environment. Our FY '24 revenue was $88.4 billion, with operating income of $7.7 billion and EPS of $7.13.

    謝謝羅布,也謝謝大家加入我們。當我回顧過去的一年時,越來越清楚的是,數據和技術對於我們客戶所做的一切至關重要,而戴爾處於有利位置,可以在這種環境中蓬勃發展。我們 24 財年的營收為 884 億美元,營業收入為 77 億美元,每股收益為 7.13 美元。

  • In a year where revenue declined, we maintained our focus on operational excellence, delivering solid earnings per share and outstanding cash flow. FY '24 was one of those years that didn't go as planned. But I really like how we navigated it. We showed our grit and determination by quickly adapting to a dynamic market, focusing on what we can control and extending our model into the high-growth AI opportunity.

    在收入下降的一年中,我們繼續專注於卓越運營,提供穩健的每股收益和出色的現金流。 24 財政年度是沒有按計劃進行的年份之一。但我真的很喜歡我們的導航方式。我們透過快速適應動態市場、專注於我們可以控制的內容並將我們的模型擴展到高成長的人工智慧機會來展示我們的勇氣和決心。

  • Our operating margin rate improved as we delivered higher gross margins with disciplined operating expense management. We focused on cash and working capital improvements, generating $8.7 billion of cash flow from operations. And we improved our cash conversion cycle to negative 47 days exiting the year, a 15-day improvement.

    由於我們透過嚴格的營運費用管理實現了更高的毛利率,因此我們的營運利潤率有所提高。我們專注於現金和營運資本的改善,從營運中產生了 87 億美元的現金流。我們將現金週轉週期縮短至今年結束時的負 47 天,改善了 15 天。

  • We delivered on our capital allocation commitments, and we have returned $7 billion to shareholders since the initiation of our dividend. Earlier today, we announced an increase to our dividend, which Yvonne will cover in more detail.

    我們兌現了資本配置承諾,自派息以來已向股東返還 70 億美元。今天早些時候,我們宣布增加股息,伊馮將更詳細地介紹這一點。

  • We have positioned ourselves well in AI. We've already started to benefit from the momentum we're seeing. We saw strong demand continue for our AI-optimized server portfolio, including our flagship PowerEdge XE9680, which remains the fastest-ramping solution in company history.

    我們在人工智慧領域已經做好了定位。我們已經開始從我們所看到的勢頭中受益。我們看到對我們的人工智慧優化伺服器產品組合的強勁需求持續存在,包括我們的旗艦產品PowerEdge XE9680,它仍然是該公司歷史上成長最快的解決方案。

  • We have just started to touch the AI opportunities ahead of us, including broader adoption of AI by enterprise customers, and the projected growth in unstructured data, where we are well positioned with industry-leading storage solutions. We believe the long-term AI action is on-prem, where customers can keep their data and intellectual property safe and secure.

    我們剛開始接觸擺在我們面前的人工智慧機遇,包括企業客戶更廣泛地採用人工智慧,以及非結構化資料的預期成長,我們在這些領域擁有業界領先的儲存解決方案。我們相信長期的人工智慧行動是在本地進行的,客戶可以在其中保證其資料和智慧財產權的安全。

  • PCs will become even more essential as most day-to-day work with AI will be done on the PC. We remain excited about the long-term opportunity in our CSG business. Look for us to make a number of new product and solution announcements at Dell Technologies World in May, that will help customers get started with AI and make it easy.

    由於人工智慧的大部分日常工作都將在 PC 上完成,因此 PC 將變得更加重要。我們對 CSG 業務的長期機會仍然感到興奮。我們將在 5 月的戴爾科技世界博覽會上發布一系列新產品和解決方案,這將有助於客戶輕鬆開始使用 AI。

  • Turning to Q4. We saw positive signs in the business as we exited the year, but enterprise and large customers remain cautious with their spend. Our Q4 execution was solid given the environment, with ISG faring better than CSG. We delivered revenue of $22.3 billion with strong profitability and cash flow. Operating income was $2.1 billion, diluted EPS was $2.20 and cash flow from operations was $1.5 billion.

    轉向第四季。今年結束時,我們看到了業務的積極跡象,但企業和大型客戶對其支出仍持謹慎態度。考慮到環境,我們第四季的執行情況很穩定,ISG 的表現優於 CSG。我們實現了 223 億美元的收入,具有強勁的獲利能力和現金流。營業收入為 21 億美元,稀釋後每股收益為 2.20 美元,營運現金流為 15 億美元。

  • In ISG, traditional server demand grew year-over-year and a third consecutive quarter of sequential growth, and storage demand grew above normal seasonality, though down year-over-year as expected. Storage recovery typically lags servers by a couple of quarters. Our strong momentum in the AI build-out continues as we believe Dell is uniquely positioned with our broad portfolio to help customers build GenAI solutions that meet their performance, cost and requirements.

    在ISG,傳統伺服器需求年增,且連續第三個季度較上季成長,儲存需求成長高於正常季節性,但年減符合預期。儲存恢復通常落後伺服器幾個季度。我們在人工智慧建設方面的強勁勢頭仍在繼續,因為我們相信戴爾憑藉我們廣泛的產品組合處於獨特的地位,可以幫助客戶建立滿足其性能、成本和要求的 GenAI 解決方案。

  • In Q4, we saw strength across a wider range of customers and geographies with an expanding pipeline. AI optimized server orders increased by nearly 40% sequentially. We shipped $800 million of AI-optimized servers, and our backlog nearly doubled sequentially, exiting the fiscal year at $2.9 billion.

    在第四季度,我們看到了更廣泛的客戶和地區的實力以及不斷擴大的管道。 AI優化伺服器訂單季增近40%。我們的人工智慧優化伺服器出貨量達 8 億美元,我們的積壓訂單幾乎環比增加了一倍,本財年結束時達到 29 億美元。

  • Demand continues to outpace GPU supply, though we are seeing H100 lead times improving. We are also seeing strong interest in orders for AI-optimized servers equipped with the next generation of AI GPUs, including the H200 and the MI300X. Most customers are still in the early stages of their AI journey, and they are very interested in what we are doing at Dell.

    儘管我們看到 H100 的交貨時間有所改善,但需求仍持續超過 GPU 供應。我們也看到人們對配備下一代 AI GPU(包括 H200 和 MI300X)的 AI 優化伺服器的訂單產生了濃厚的興趣。大多數客戶仍處於人工智慧之旅的早期階段,他們對我們在戴爾所做的事情非常感興趣。

  • We are helping them get started and work through their use cases, data preparation, training and infrastructure requirements. They appreciate our perspective, our collaborative approach and the capabilities we can provide to help them create holistic AI solutions, including our end-to-end portfolio, engagement with our engineering teams, consulting services and financing options. Progress in this space won't always be linear, but we are excited about the opportunity ahead.

    我們正在幫助他們開始並解決他們的用例、資料準備、培訓和基礎設施要求。他們欣賞我們的觀點、協作方法以及我們可以提供的幫助他們創建整體人工智慧解決方案的能力,包括我們的端到端產品組合、與工程團隊的合作、諮詢服務和融資選擇。這個領域的進展並不總是線性的,但我們對未來的機會感到興奮。

  • In CSG, we remain optimistic about the coming PC refresh cycle as the PC installed base continues to age, Windows 10 reaches end-of-life later next year and the industry makes advances in AI-enabled architectures and software applications. In Q4, we maintained pricing discipline and managed our costs well in an increasingly competitive environment, delivering solid operating margins.

    在 CSG,我們對即將到來的 PC 更新週期保持樂觀,因為 PC 安裝基數繼續老化,Windows 10 將於明年晚些時候結束生命週期,並且行業在支援 AI 的架構和軟體應用程式方面取得了進步。第四季度,我們在競爭日益激烈的環境中保持了定價紀律並很好地管理了成本,實現了穩健的營運利潤。

  • In the near term, the PC market is still soft, and we expect the recovery to push into the second half as enterprise and large customers remain cautious with their spend. We will continue to execute our CSG strategy, which has served us well across various economic cycles, focusing on commercial and high-end consumer with a strong attach motion.

    短期內,個人電腦市場依然疲軟,我們預計下半年復甦將持續,因為企業和大客戶對支出仍保持謹慎態度。我們將繼續執行我們的南玻策略,該策略在各個經濟週期中為我們提供了良好的服務,並專注於具有強烈依附性的商業和高端消費者。

  • As we enter FY '25, our strategy remains simple. We are leveraging our strengths to extend our leadership positions and turning new opportunities into incremental growth. We are well positioned with our unique operating model and a number of tailwinds. We are driving a disproportionate level of AI server growth, fueled by our technology leadership, engineering expertise, service capabilities, and our traditional server business is gaining momentum.

    當我們進入 25 財年時,我們的策略仍然很簡單。我們正在利用我們的優勢來擴大我們的領導地位,並將新的機會轉化為增量成長。我們憑藉獨特的營運模式和許多有利因素處於有利地位。在我們的技術領先、工程專業知識、服務能力的推動下,我們正在推動人工智慧伺服器的高速成長,而我們的傳統伺服器業務正在獲得動力。

  • Our storage business will benefit from the exponential growth expected in unstructured data, and we are bullish on the coming PC refresh cycle where we are well positioned. We are optimistic about FY '25 and expect a return to growth above our long-term framework.

    我們的儲存業務將受益於非結構化資料的指數級增長,我們看好即將到來的 PC 更新週期,我們在這一週期中處於有利地位。我們對 25 財年持樂觀態度,預計成長將恢復到高於我們的長期框架的水平。

  • Now over to Yvonne for more details about Q4.

    現在請 Yvonne 了解更多有關第四季度的詳細資訊。

  • Yvonne McGill - CFO

    Yvonne McGill - CFO

  • Thanks, Jeff. In Q4, we delivered revenue of $22.3 billion, down 11%, with strong gross margins and lower operating expense. Gross margin was $5.5 billion and 24.5% of revenue, up 70 basis points, with a mix shift to ISG. We saw increased pricing pressure in Q4 in PCs and servers, but remained focused on profitable opportunities, and we will continue to maintain that discipline and focus going forward.

    謝謝,傑夫。第四季度,我們的營收為 223 億美元,下降 11%,毛利率強勁,營運費用較低。毛利率為 55 億美元,佔營收的 24.5%,上升 70 個基點,混合轉向 ISG。我們看到第四季度個人電腦和伺服器的定價壓力有所增加,但仍然專注於獲利機會,並且我們將繼續保持這一紀律和關注。

  • Operating expense was almost $0.5 billion lower than this time last year at $3.3 billion or 14.9% of revenue, down 12% as we actively managed our overall spend. Operating income was 9.6% of revenue and $2.1 billion, down 1%, with lower operating expense and an increase in our gross margin rate largely offsetting the revenue decline. Q4 net income was $1.6 billion, up 22%, driven by a lower tax rate and lower I&O. Diluted EPS was $2.20, up 22%.

    由於我們積極管理整體支出,營運費用比去年同期減少了近 5 億美元,為 33 億美元,佔收入的 14.9%,下降了 12%。營業收入佔收入 9.6%,為 21 億美元,下降 1%,營業費用下降和毛利率上升很大程度上抵消了收入下降。由於稅率降低和 I&O 減少,第四季淨利潤為 16 億美元,成長 22%。稀釋後每股收益為 2.20 美元,成長 22%。

  • ISG revenue was $9.3 billion, down 6% and up 10% sequentially. Servers and networking revenue was $4.9 billion, down 2% year-over-year and up 4% sequentially. Server order growth was strong, with the majority of our AI-optimized server orders going into backlog. Our AI mix of server demand increased again sequentially given strong customer interest in GenAI.

    ISG 營收為 93 億美元,季減 6%,季增 10%。伺服器和網路收入為 49 億美元,年減 2%,季增 4%。伺服器訂單成長強勁,我們大部分的人工智慧優化伺服器訂單都處於積壓狀態。鑑於客戶對 GenAI 的濃厚興趣,我們的 AI 組合伺服器需求再次增加。

  • We delivered storage revenue of $4.5 billion, down 10% year-over-year and up 16% sequentially, with better profitability as we increased our mix of proprietary storage software. Demand improved sequentially across the storage portfolio, above our normal seasonality. ISG operating income was 15.3% of revenue and $1.4 billion, down 7%, driven by a decline in revenue and a lower gross margin rate given the higher AI-optimized server mix, partially offset by lower operating expense.

    我們實現了 45 億美元的儲存收入,年減 10%,季增 16%,隨著我們增加專有儲存軟體組合,獲利能力有所改善。整個儲存組合的需求持續改善,高於我們正常的季節性。 ISG 營業收入佔收入的 15.3%,為 14 億美元,下降 7%,原因是收入下降以及人工智慧優化伺服器組合較高導致毛利率較低,但部分被營運費用下降所抵消。

  • Our Q4 CSG revenue was $11.7 billion, down 12%, largely driven by a decline in units. Commercial and Consumer revenue were $9.6 billion and $2.2 billion, respectively. CSG operating income was $0.7 billion or 6.2% of revenue. Op inc was up 8%, driven by lower operating expense and higher gross margin rates, partially offset by a decline in revenue.

    我們第四季的 CSG 營收為 117 億美元,下降 12%,主要是因為銷量下降。商業和消費者收入分別為 96 億美元和 22 億美元。 CSG 營業收入為 7 億美元,佔營收的 6.2%。 Op inc 上漲 8%,主要受到營運費用下降和毛利率上升的推動,但部分被收入下降所抵銷。

  • Earlier this week, we announced that Dell will have the broadest portfolio of commercial AI PCs in the industry and new XPS systems, which feature built-in AI acceleration with an addition of the neural processing unit, or NPU, helping to improve performance, productivity and collaboration. While PC demand recovery has pushed out, we remain bullish on the coming PC refresh cycle and the longer-term impact of AI on the PC market.

    本週早些時候,我們宣布戴爾將擁有業界最廣泛的商用 AI PC 和新 XPS 系統產品組合,該系統具有內建 AI 加速功能,並添加了神經處理單元 (NPU),有助於提高性能和生產力和協作。儘管 PC 需求復甦已經推遲,但我們仍然看好即將到來的 PC 更新週期以及人工智慧對 PC 市場的長期影響。

  • Our Dell Financial Services originations were $8.4 billion for the year and $2.5 billion in Q4, down 19%, driven by the sale of our consumer revolving portfolio and lower VMware resale. DFS-managed assets ended the year at $14.4 billion, while the overall DFS portfolio quality remains strong with credit losses near historically low levels.

    我們的戴爾金融服務發起額全年為 84 億美元,第四季為 25 億美元,下降 19%,這主要是由於我們的消費者週轉產品組合銷售和 VMware 轉售減少所致。截至年底,DFS 管理的資產達到 144 億美元,而 DFS 投資組合的整體品質仍然強勁,信貸損失接近歷史最低水準。

  • Turning to cash flow and balance sheet. Our Q4 cash flow from operations was $1.5 billion, primarily driven by profitability. We ended the quarter with $9 billion in cash and investments, down $0.9 billion sequentially, driven by capital returns of $1.1 billion, and debt paydown, partially offset by free cash flow generation. And we reached our core leverage target of 1.5x exiting the year.

    轉向現金流和資產負債表。我們第四季的營運現金流為 15 億美元,主要由獲利能力推動。本季結束時,我們的現金和投資為 90 億美元,比上一季減少 9 億美元,原因是 11 億美元的資本回報和債務償還,部分被自由現金流的產生所抵消。今年我們達到了 1.5 倍的核心槓桿目標。

  • During the quarter, we repurchased 11.2 million shares of stock at an average price of $74.67 and paid a $0.37 per share quarterly dividend. And earlier today, we announced a 20% increase in our annual dividend to $1.78 per share, well above our long-term financial framework and a testament to our confidence in the business and our ability to generate strong cash flow.

    本季度,我們以平均價格 74.67 美元回購了 1,120 萬股股票,並支付了每股 0.37 美元的季度股息。今天早些時候,我們宣布將年度股息增加 20% 至每股 1.78 美元,遠高於我們的長期財務框架,證明了我們對業務的信心以及產生強勁現金流的能力。

  • Turning to guidance. There are several trends that give us confidence in our view of FY '25. First, the momentum around AI; second, the improvement we're seeing in traditional servers; and third, the aging PC installed base that is due for a refresh. The macro environment, however, is leading customers to be more thoughtful about their infrastructure budgets, particularly in the first half.

    轉向指導。有幾個趨勢讓我們對 25 財年的看法充滿信心。首先,圍繞著人工智慧的勢頭;其次,我們在傳統伺服器中看到的改進;第三,老化的個人電腦安裝基礎需要更新。然而,宏觀環境正在引導客戶更仔細地考慮其基礎設施預算,尤其是在上半年。

  • Against that backdrop, we expect Dell Technologies FY '25 revenue to be in the range of $91 billion and $95 billion, with a midpoint of $93 billion and 5% growth, above our long-term value creation framework. We expect ISG to grow in the mid-teens, fueled by AI, with a return to growth in traditional servers and storage, and our CSG business to grow in the low single digits for the year. We expect the combination of ISG and CSG to grow 8% at the midpoint, offset by a decline in other businesses.

    在此背景下,我們預期戴爾科技集團 25 財年的營收將在 910 億美元至 950 億美元之間,中間值為 930 億美元,成長 5%,高於我們的長期價值創造框架。我們預計,在人工智慧的推動下,隨著傳統伺服器和儲存恢復成長,ISG 將在十幾歲左右成長,而我們的 CSG 業務今年將以較低的個位數成長。我們預計 ISG 和 CSG 的合併中期將成長 8%,並被其他業務的下降所抵銷。

  • Given the higher mix of AI-optimized servers, inflationary input costs and the current competitive environment, we do expect our gross margin rate to decline roughly 100 basis points. We'll maintain our cost discipline and expect OpEx to be roughly flat. We expect I&O of roughly $1.4 billion. Diluted non-GAAP EPS is expected to be $7.50, plus or minus $0.25, up 5% at the midpoint, assuming an annual non-GAAP tax rate of 18%.

    考慮到人工智慧優化伺服器的更高組合、通貨膨脹的投入成本和當前的競爭環境,我們預計我們的毛利率將下降約 100 個基點。我們將維持成本控制,並預期營運支出大致持平。我們預計 I&O 約為 14 億美元。假設非 GAAP 年度稅率為 18%,稀釋後非 GAAP 每股盈餘預估為 7.50 美元,正負 0.25 美元,中位數成長 5%。

  • For Q1 of fiscal '25, we expect Dell Technologies revenue to be in the range of $21 billion and $22 billion, with a midpoint of $21.5 billion, up 3%. We expect the combination of ISG and CSG to grow 5% at the midpoint, with ISG up in the mid- to high teens.

    對於 25 財年第一季度,我們預計戴爾科技集團的營收將在 210 億美元至 220 億美元之間,中位數為 215 億美元,成長 3%。我們預計 ISG 和 CSG 的綜合成長率將達到 5%,其中 ISG 的成長率將達到中位數到十幾位數。

  • Gross margin rate will be lower sequentially given seasonally lower storage mix and a higher AI-optimized server mix. OpEx will be up slightly with typical seasonality. Q1 diluted share count should be between 723 million and 727 million shares. Diluted non-GAAP EPS is expected to be $1.15, plus or minus $0.10.

    鑑於季節性較低的儲存組合和較高的人工智慧優化伺服器組合,毛利率將依次降低。營運支出將隨典型季節性略有上升。第一季攤薄後的股數應在 7.23 億股至 7.27 億股之間。稀釋後非 GAAP 每股盈餘預計為 1.15 美元,上下浮動 0.10 美元。

  • In closing, we are optimistic and expect a return to growth in FY '25 and beyond with a number of tailwinds. We have strong conviction in the growth of our TAM over the long term, and we are committed to delivering against our long-term financial framework with average annual revenue growth of 3% to 4%, diluted EPS growth of at least 8% and a net income-to-adjusted free cash flow conversion of 100% or better over time.

    最後,我們持樂觀態度,預計 25 財年及以後將在一系列有利因素的推動下恢復成長。我們對 TAM 的長期成長抱持堅定的信念,我們致力於實現我們的長期財務框架,平均年收入增長 3% 至 4%,稀釋後每股收益增長至少 8%,隨著時間的推移,淨收入與調整後自由現金流的轉換率為100% 或更高。

  • We are also committed to returning 80% or more of our adjusted free cash flow to shareholders over the long term. We're excited about the future and confident in our ability to create meaningful long-term value for all our key stakeholders.

    我們也致力於長期將 80% 或更多的調整後自由現金流返還給股東。我們對未來感到興奮,並對我們為所有主要利害關係人創造有意義的長期價值的能力充滿信心。

  • Now I'll turn it back to Rob to begin Q&A.

    現在我將把它轉回給 Rob 開始問答。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • Thanks, Yvonne. Let's get to Q&A. We ask that each participant ask 1 question to allow us to get to as many of you as possible. Let's go to the first question.

    謝謝,伊馮。讓我們開始問答。我們要求每位參與者提出 1 個問題,以便我們可以接觸到盡可能多的人。我們先來說第一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. We will take our first question from David Vogt with UBS.

    謝謝。我們將回答瑞銀集團的戴維‧沃格特提出的第一個問題。

  • David Vogt - Analyst

    David Vogt - Analyst

  • I just wanted to go back to a comment that Jeff made in the prepared remarks about the unstructured data opportunity going forward. Just would love to kind of get a sense for how you're thinking about the storage opportunity as AI broadens out in your server portfolio. And how should we be thinking about the timing?

    我只是想回到傑夫在準備好的評論中關於未來非結構化數據機會的評論。只是想了解一下,隨著人工智慧在您的伺服器產品組合中的擴展,您如何看待儲存機會。我們該如何考慮時機?

  • I know, generally speaking, storage kind of follow service by 1 to 2 quarters. But with the AI opportunity, did that change in any way? And how you're thinking about leveraging your existing portfolio to take advantage of all this data that's being created?

    我知道,一般來說,儲存服務會持續一到兩個季度。但隨著人工智慧的出現,這種情況有什麼改變嗎?您如何考慮利用現有的投資組合來利用正在創建的所有這些數據?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Sure. Thanks for the question, David. I look at it, and maybe in the simplest terms, to feed these GPUs with the data they need to train models, fine-tune models then ultimately drive them into production via inference is data, data-intensive. And we look at that sort of architecture that these things need to be fed and set an incredibly high bandwidth to make sure the GPU engines aren't idle.

    當然。謝謝你的提問,大衛。我認為,也許用最簡單的術語來說,為這些 GPU 提供訓練模型、微調模型所需的數據,然後最終通過推理將它們推向生產,這是數據密集型的。我們研究了這些東西需要饋送的架構,並設定了令人難以置信的高頻寬,以確保 GPU 引擎不會閒置。

  • And when we reflect on what's happening in the marketplace, the training, a lot of training initially has been done in text. And as we get to richer data sets and we move into enterprise, which we would think the big opportunity is, as AI tracks to where the data is created, which is on-prem or out at the edge of the network, it lends itself to a growing storage opportunity for us.

    當我們反思市場上正在發生的事情時,培訓,許多培訓最初都是以文字形式完成的。當我們獲得更豐富的數據集並進入企業時,我們認為這是一個巨大的機會,因為人工智能可以追踪數據的創建位置,無論是本地還是網絡邊緣,它都適合自己為我們提供不斷增長的存儲機會。

  • And I really like our portfolio. Think about what we've done with PowerScale. We recently launched the F710 and 210, where we've increased the write performance, we've increased the read performance, we've increased the performance around some of these high-concurrency, latency-sensitive workloads. It's aligned with what is going to be the growing need as this gets deployed inside the enterprise.

    我真的很喜歡我們的產品組合。想想我們用 PowerScale 做了什麼。我們最近推出了 F710 和 210,我們提高了寫入效能,提高了讀取效能,提高了一些高並發、延遲敏感的工作負載的效能。當它在企業內部部署時,它與不斷增長的需求是一致的。

  • And I think the same is true around our ObjectScale product, the XF960. These are the types of assets and capabilities that our customers are going to need as they really move from training to inference out into what we call the real production world, and we like our portfolio.

    我認為我們的 ObjectScale 產品 XF960 也是如此。這些是我們的客戶在真正從訓練轉向推理進入我們所說的真實生產世界時所需要的資產和功能類型,我們喜歡我們的產品組合。

  • You may have seen an announcement from us early in the quarter around a SuperPOD certified with Ethernet. We think that is an absolutely critical capability of bringing storage into the enterprise. Many and most enterprises are Ethernet based. That's a huge opportunity being in the marketplace with that and the new storage products that I referenced, I think, sets up quite well to be able to feed these new workloads with high-performance storage, which we tend to be the leader in.

    您可能已經在本季度初看到了我們關於通過乙太網路認證的 SuperPOD 的公告。我們認為這是將儲存引入企業的絕對關鍵能力。許多且大多數企業都是基於乙太網路的。我認為,市場上有一個巨大的機會,我提到的新儲存產品能夠很好地利用高效能儲存來滿足這些新的工作負載,而我們往往是這方面的領導者。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will take our next question from Erik Woodring with Morgan Stanley.

    我們將接受摩根士丹利的埃里克伍德林 (Erik Woodring) 提出的下一個問題。

  • Erik William Richard Woodring - Executive Director & Equity Analyst

    Erik William Richard Woodring - Executive Director & Equity Analyst

  • Jeff, I was wondering if you could expand maybe a bit on some of the qualitative characteristics around your AI-optimized server backlog, order and pipeline, meaning the mix of Tier 2 cloud customers that you've talked about in the past versus enterprises, how that looks like from a dollar or a client count perspective, if or what you are hearing from any sovereigns, linearity in the quarter? And any kind of qualitative details that you could share with us.

    傑夫,我想知道您是否可以稍微擴展一下有關人力智慧優化的伺服器積壓、訂單和管道的一些定性特徵,這意味著您過去談到的二級雲端客戶與企業的混合,從美元或客戶數量的角度來看,這看起來怎麼樣?如果或者您從任何主權國家那裡聽到的話,本季度的線性度如何?以及您可以與我們分享的任何定性細節。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Sure. There's a lot to answer there. Let me start with maybe the demand. And you heard us talk about the demand up sequentially 40%, and that demand was across a rich customer set. The number of CSPs grew, the number of enterprise buyers grew.

    當然。那裡有很多問題需要回答。讓我從需求開始。您聽到我們談到需求較上月成長了 40%,而且這種需求來自豐富的客戶群。 CSP 數量增加,企業買家數量增加。

  • So for us, 2 important indicators is less concentrated this quarter than the previous quarter, with more customers in both the CSP category and the enterprise category buying from us. That demand was spread across the H100, H800, the H200 and the MI300x. So We sold a broad portfolio or a broad portfolio of silicon diversity into the marketplace for our customers.

    所以對我們來說,本季有兩個重要指標比上季集中度有所下降,CSP類別和企業類別的客戶都從我們這裡購買了更多的客戶。這種需求遍及 H100、H800、H200 和 MI300x。因此,我們向市場上的客戶出售了廣泛的產品組合或廣泛的矽多樣性產品組合。

  • That's reflected in our backlog. And the backlog is hard to parse in the sense of a single lead time because it's now a complex backlog with multiple variants, the 4 that I mentioned, across deployments needed today, deployments needed through the balance of the quarter and/or balance of the first half and balance of the second half.

    這反映在我們的積壓工作上。從單一交付週期的意義上來說,積壓工作很難解析,因為它現在是一個複雜的積壓工作,具有多種變體,我提到的4 個變體,涵蓋今天所需的部署、季度平衡和/或季度平衡所需的部署。上半場和下半場的平衡。

  • So we have delivery dates planned on new data center capabilities or new data center build-out. So we're excited about that. Probably another important characterization about the demand and how the backlog looks is the pipeline. Really, we talked about our 5-quarter pipeline last call. The 5-quarter pipeline grew this quarter as well.

    因此,我們規劃了新資料中心功能或新資料中心擴建的交付日期。所以我們對此感到興奮。關於需求和積壓工作的另一個重要特徵可能是管道。確實,我們在上次電話會議中討論了我們的 5 季度管道。本季第 5 季的管道也有所成長。

  • So who we sold to grew. The potential of who we're going to sell to grew. The number of shipments that we had during the quarter grew, and the backlog grew. And we expect to ship more in Q1 than we shipped in Q4. I hope that was the color that you're looking for.

    所以我們賣給的人成長了。我們的銷售對象的潛力不斷增長。本季我們的出貨數量有所增加,積壓訂單也有所增加。我們預計第一季的出貨量將超過第四季的出貨量。我希望這就是您正在尋找的顏色。

  • And maybe the last part of your question is there's certainly a lot of energy and opportunity around these emerging nation state opportunities, building out AI and rebuilding their economies around these modern technologies. We believe we're in those discussions. We believe that's a very untapped opportunity in the marketplace. And we're certainly -- with our geographic coverage and our go-to-market coverage, I believe we're in the game.

    也許你問題的最後一部分是,圍繞這些新興國家的機會,圍繞這些現代技術建立人工智慧並重建經濟,肯定存在大量的能量和機會。我們相信我們正在參與這些討論。我們相信這是市場上一個尚未開發的機會。當然,憑藉我們的地理覆蓋範圍和市場覆蓋範圍,我相信我們已經參與其中。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.

    我們將接受富國銀行 Aaron Rakers 提出的下一個問題。

  • Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

    Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

  • Yes. Congrats on the good results. I guess, getting away from maybe the AI because I'm sure a lot of people are focused there, but I'm curious in your comments on the traditional server market. I know some of the Gartner data suggests we're still seeing overall units down quite a bit on a year-over-year basis in servers, offset by AI. But what's giving you the confidence or the visibility that you're starting to see the traditional server market recover? And just any thoughts on the pace of that as we look through the calendar year?

    是的。恭喜取得好成績。我想,遠離人工智慧,因為我確信很多人都關注那裡,但我很好奇你對傳統伺服器市場的評論。我知道 Gartner 的一些數據表明,我們仍然看到伺服器的整體單位數量同比大幅下降,但被人工智慧所抵消。但是,是什麼讓您有信心或看到傳統伺服器市場開始復甦呢?當我們回顧整個日曆年時,對這一速度有什麼想法嗎?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Well, maybe a couple of data points, I'm sure Yvonne will add to this. I think we mentioned in our talking point, the traditional server business grew year-over-year in demand in Q4. It was the third consecutive quarter of sequential growth. We look into the pipeline of the coming year, and it continues to improve. This is the longest digestion period that I can recollect in this industry.

    好吧,也許有幾個數據點,我相信伊馮會補充這一點。我想我們在談話中提到,第四季傳統伺服器業務的需求年增。這是連續第三個季度實現環比增長。我們研究了來年的管道,並且它繼續改進。這是我記憶中在這個行業最長的消化期了。

  • Everything is setting up for an investment in traditional servers to run traditional server workloads, which are very different than these accelerated AI workloads. So our line of sight into what our customers need gives us confidence that we believe that traditional servers are recovering. The question will be rate and what rate will they recover, but we're optimistic.

    一切都準備好對傳統伺服器進行投資,以運行傳統伺服器工作負載,這與這些加速的人工智慧工作負載有很大不同。因此,我們對客戶需求的洞察讓我們相信傳統伺服器正在復甦。問題在於恢復速度以及恢復速度,但我們很樂觀。

  • A long digestion period, those workload is still very important, running mission-critical workloads in many of our largest customers all the way down to small and medium businesses. The performance that we exit or the momentum that we exited the year with, I think, gives us the ability to look going forward. And our internal modeling says that our traditional server market is a modest growth on a year-over-year basis.

    經過很長的消化期,這些工作負載仍然非常重要,在我們許多最大的客戶一直到中小型企業中運行任務關鍵型工作負載。我認為,我們退出這一年的表現或勢頭使我們有能力展望未來。我們的內部模型表明,我們的傳統伺服器市場比去年同期溫和成長。

  • Yvonne, anything?

    伊馮,有什麼事嗎?

  • Yvonne McGill - CFO

    Yvonne McGill - CFO

  • No, no. I think you've hit it, and it's really just the moving forward into the next year and the continuation of that -- of the trend we've been seeing after the 3 quarters in a row growth.

    不,不。我認為你已經做到了,這實際上只是進入明年並延續我們在連續三個季度成長後看到的趨勢。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will take our next question from Tony Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

    我們將回答托尼·薩科納吉和伯恩斯坦提出的下一個問題。

  • A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

    A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

  • I just wanted to explore the margin question a little bit. I think you talked about gross margins being down sequentially, and the first cited reason was higher AI mix. AI was less than 5 -- AI services, less than 5% of your revenues this quarter, it probably will be next quarter. So for 5% of your revenues to have an impact on gross margins that you're calling out would, it suggest that AI server margins are really low.

    我只是想稍微探討一下保證金問題。我想你談到毛利率連續下降,第一個提到的原因是人工智慧組合更高。人工智慧不到 5——人工智慧服務,本季不到你收入的 5%,可能會是下個季度。因此,對於您所說的 5% 的收入對毛利率產生影響,這表明人工智慧伺服器的利潤率確實很低。

  • So can you, a, explicitly address that math where AI server margins are relative to company average gross margin? And can you talk about how you think about PC margins in fiscal Q1 and for fiscal '25?

    那麼,你能明確地解決人工智慧伺服器利潤相對於公司平均毛利的數學問題嗎?您能否談談您對第一財季和 25 財年 PC 利潤率的看法?

  • Yvonne McGill - CFO

    Yvonne McGill - CFO

  • Thanks, Tony. Obviously, you know now we closed out FY '24 with really strong profitability. And moving into Q1, there's a number of factors that we're looking at. We've got CSG and ISG combined and expect them to grow about 5% year-over-year at the midpoint. We have total revenue at the midpoint, expected to grow and deliver at $21.5 billion or up 3%. ISG is expected to grow in the teens, driven by traditional and AI servers. CSG is expected to be down in the low single digits, so minus 3% about year-over-year. And then we get to gross margin rate, which I think is the key to your question.

    謝謝,托尼。顯然,您現在知道我們以非常強勁的盈利能力結束了 24 財年。進入第一季度,我們正在考慮許多因素。我們將 CSG 和 ISG 合併起來,預計它們的年增長率中點約為 5%。我們的總收入處於中點,預計將成長並實現 215 億美元或成長 3%。在傳統伺服器和人工智慧伺服器的推動下,ISG 預計將在十幾歲左右增長。預計南玻集團的業績將下降至低個位數,即年減約-3%。然後我們談到毛利率,我認為這是你問題的關鍵。

  • So we expect that to be down quarter-on-quarter, about 200 basis points. What are -- what is supporting that expectation? We are seasonally lower in storage mix. So that's -- we see that every Q4 to Q1. So that's one of the drivers. We will have higher AI-optimized server mix in Q1. Jeff already talked about that in a question.

    因此,我們預計該數字將環比下降約 200 個基點。什麼是──什麼支持這種期望?我們的儲存組合季節性較低。所以,我們在每個第四季到第一季都會看到這一點。這就是司機之一。我們將在第一季擁有更高的人工智慧優化伺服器組合。傑夫已經在一個問題中談到了這一點。

  • And then holistically, we have another few influences on the margin. We've got an inflationary component cost environment. We're moving from deflationary last year to inflationary in the year that we are in right now. And then I'd say there's more competitive pressure. We're seeing more and more of that. And so that's what we expect to be impacting the gross margin.

    整體而言,我們對利潤還有其他一些影響。我們面臨組件成本通膨的環境。今年我們正從去年的通貨緊縮轉向通膨。然後我會說競爭壓力更大。我們看到越來越多這樣的事情。這就是我們預期會影響毛利率的因素。

  • And I'd say operating margin rate will be down quarter-over-quarter due to all the items I just mentioned. But for the year, we're expecting improved performance as the quarters progress. So I think it's -- we're starting this way with what we're seeing now. But again, we expect this to continue to progress as the year does.

    我想說,由於我剛才提到的所有項目,營業利潤率將比去年同期下降。但就今年而言,我們預計隨著季度的進展,業績會有所改善。所以我認為我們正在以現在所看到的方式開始。但我們再次預計這一情況將像今年一樣繼續取得進展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll now take our next question from Ananda Baruah with Loop Capital.

    現在我們將接受 Loop Capital 的 Ananda Baruah 提出的下一個問題。

  • Ananda Prosad Baruah - MD

    Ananda Prosad Baruah - MD

  • Congrats on the good results and solid execution. I guess I'll use my question just on GenAI and customer base. And was just interested, Jeff, in getting the company's view on the opportunity over time to maybe participate in -- with the hyperscalers?

    祝賀取得了良好的成果和紮實的執行力。我想我將僅在 GenAI 和客戶群上使用我的問題。傑夫,我只是想了解公司對隨著時間的推移可能參與超大規模企業的機會的看法?

  • And what are the reasons that -- I'm thinking to ask this is that what we're hearing as we get maybe into calendar '25, B100 of volume, the hyperscalers' real desire to sort of get fully integrated, rack delivered, fully integrated rack, something that the OEMs like yourself would do well, would maybe be in your warehouse. So I just wanted to get your thoughts on that. And that's it for me.

    原因是什麼——我想問這個問題是,當我們進入日曆「25」時,我們聽到的可能是 B100 的容量,超大規模企業真正希望實現完全整合、機架交付,完全整合的機架,像您這樣的原始設備製造商會做得很好,也許就在您的倉庫中。所以我只是想聽聽你對此的想法。對我來說就是這樣。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Sure. I'll see if I can address the question. I mean the first thing you probably noticed in our web deck is we increased our view of the opportunity in the marketplace to $152 billion, 20% CAGR going forward to 2027, and quite frankly, that's probably a lagging indicator. It's still catching up. We think demand continues to be ahead of that, primarily driven as the overall desired demand for the computational components to do AI exceeds the supply picture. And quite frankly, is refreshing to see. We have a high-growth category here.

    當然。我看看是否可以解決這個問題。我的意思是,您可能在我們的網路平台中註意到的第一件事是,我們將市場機會的看法提高到了1520 億美元,到2027 年的複合年增長率為20%,坦白說,這可能是個落後指標。它仍在追趕。我們認為需求持續領先,這主要是由於人工智慧運算元件的整體預期需求超過了供應情況。坦白說,令人耳目一新。我們這裡有一個高成長的類別。

  • That growth is happening, certainly, in the public cloud, but increasingly more so in enterprises, which is what, certainly, given our reach and the vast capabilities that we have in business to help customers adopt AI into their business flows, I think it's a big opportunity for us. It's where the data is. 83% of all data is on-prem.

    當然,這種成長正在公有雲中發生,但在企業中越來越多,這當然是考慮到我們在業務中的影響力和我們在幫助客戶將人工智慧融入其業務流程方面擁有的巨大能力,我認為這是對我們來說是一個很大的機會。這是數據所在的地方。 83% 的資料位於本地。

  • AI moves to the data. More data will be created outside of the data center going forward than inside the data center today. That's going to happen at the edge of the network, a smart factory, an oil director platform, a deep mine, all variations of this. We believe AI will ultimately get deployed next to where the data is created, driven by latency.

    人工智慧轉向數據。未來在資料中心外部創建的資料將比現在在資料中心內部創建的資料更多。這將發生在網路邊緣、智慧工廠、石油指揮平台、深礦井以及所有這些的變體。我們相信,在延遲的驅動下,人工智慧最終將部署在資料創建的地方。

  • And we think about this, the opportunity is to get the training and fine-tuning, which is well underway now. But I mentioned earlier this notion about AI and production inferencing, running the actual tool in production to get the outcomes that businesses want. We believe that the enlarged or the untapped large opportunity, can't get my words in the right order, going forward for us. So this notion of enterprise, our enterprise customer base growing.

    我們想到這一點,機會就是得到培訓和微調,現在正在順利進行中。但我之前提到過關於人工智慧和生產推理的概念,即在生產中運行實際工具以獲得企業想要的結果。我們相信,擴大的或未開發的巨大機會,無法讓我的話以正確的順序為我們前進。所以這樣的企業理念,我們的企業客戶群不斷成長。

  • We sold to education customers, manufacturing customers, governments, we've sold the financial services business, engineering and consumer services companies. We're seeing vast deployments proving out the technology. In some cases, they're using the tooling of the public cloud. And then they quickly find that they want to run AI on-prem because they want to control their data. They want to secure their data. It's their IP, and they want to run domain-specific and process-specific models to get the outcomes they're looking for.

    我們向教育客戶、製造業客戶、政府銷售產品,我們也向金融服務企業、工程和消費者服務公司出售產品。我們看到大量的部署證明了該技術的有效性。在某些情況下,他們使用公有雲的工具。然後他們很快發現他們想要在本地運行人工智慧,因為他們想要控制他們的數據。他們希望保護自己的資料。這是他們的 IP,他們希望運行特定於領域和特定於流程的模型來獲得他們正在尋找的結果。

  • Hopefully, that gave you a rich context of what we're seeing across the customer base, the opportunity for us going forward. And this is at node scale, rack scale and data center scale.

    希望這能讓您對我們在客戶群中所看到的情況有一個豐富的背景,以及我們前進的機會。這是節點規模、機架規模和資料中心規模。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will take our next question from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

    我們將回答美國銀行 Wamsi Mohan 的下一個問題。

  • Wamsi Mohan - MD in Americas Equity Research

    Wamsi Mohan - MD in Americas Equity Research

  • You called out pricing pressure in AI servers. How are you responding to that? Do you think that you're leaving any revenue or orders on the table if the financial returns were not acceptable or are we not anywhere close to that point yet?

    您指出了人工智慧伺服器的定價壓力。你對此有何回應?如果財務回報不可接受或我們還沒有接近這一點,您是否認為您會放棄任何收入或訂單?

  • And if you could just clarify this acceleration in ISG growth that we're looking at in the next quarter. This quarter, server revenue growth was still relatively weak within service and networking despite a very strong $800 million in AI servers. So just hoping to think through how you're expecting the AI or non-AI server component of that in that ISG growth overall next quarter?

    您能否澄清一下我們在下個季度預計的 ISG 成長加速情況。本季度,儘管人工智慧伺服器的收入非常強勁,達到 8 億美元,但服務和網路領域的伺服器收入成長仍然相對疲軟。那麼,只是想想一下,您對下個季度 ISG 整體成長中的人工智慧或非人工智慧伺服器部分有何預期?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Maybe a couple of market descriptors and then Yvonne can weigh in on the financial impact. Look, the competitive market in PCs increased quarter-over-quarter and particularly in low price bands. So when we made remarks about us being selective or focusing on profitability, that's how to decode it in the PC business is that this -- the sub-$500 market opportunity is certainly less profitable, and we are much more guarded of how much we participated in that, which led to our share. We actually took share and midrange and high-end price bands in mature markets. So I think that's a component of this.

    也許一些市場描述,然後伊馮可以權衡財務影響。看來,個人電腦市場的競爭逐季加劇,尤其是在低價領域。因此,當我們談論我們有選擇性或專注於盈利能力時,在 PC 業務中如何解讀它是這樣的——500 美元以下的市場機會肯定利潤較低,而且我們對我們參與的程度更加謹慎。這導致了我們的分享。實際上,我們在成熟市場中佔據了份額以及中端和高端價格帶。所以我認為這是其中的一個組成部分。

  • When I look at AI and the comments around AI and margins, our margins actually improved quarter-over-quarter with AI. That's an encouraging sign.

    當我查看人工智慧以及有關人工智慧和利潤率的評論時,我們的利潤率實際上在人工智慧的幫助下逐季度有所提高。這是一個令人鼓舞的跡象。

  • And there still less than traditional servers on a rate basis, but improving. It's the second consecutive quarter of improvement. So that's some color about what's happening in the marketplace. We did see in traditional servers that, in large bids, the competitiveness did increase quarter-over-quarter in Q4. We expect that to continue. That's not uncommon. Yvonne?

    從速率來看,仍然低於傳統伺服器,但有所改善。這是連續第二季出現改善。這就是市場上正在發生的事情的一些顏色。我們確實在傳統伺服器中看到,在大額出價中,第四季的競爭力確實比去年同期成長。我們預計這種情況會持續下去。這並不罕見。伊馮娜?

  • Yvonne McGill - CFO

    Yvonne McGill - CFO

  • No, I would -- as we look at the holistic server portfolio for Q1, we're seeing, obviously, strong growth, driven by the AI servers. But we're seeing growth, as we've talked about, sequential growth over traditional servers. Yes, it's close.

    不,我會——當我們審視第一季的整體伺服器產品組合時,我們顯然看到了由人工智慧伺服器推動的強勁成長。但正如我們所討論的,我們看到了成長,相對於傳統伺服器的連續成長。是的,很接近了。

  • We're not seeing -- we're seeing -- expecting growth to return year-over-year in traditional servers, but it's a very competitive market, as Jeff mentioned. And what I'm really excited about is the other thing that Jeff talked about on really getting more and more value out of our GPU servers really with -- as we move more and more into enterprise and get more richly configured, more services, et cetera, attached to that.

    我們沒有看到——我們正在看到——預期傳統伺服器會比去年同期成長,但正如傑夫所提到的那樣,這是一個競爭非常激烈的市場。我真正興奮的是Jeff 談到的另一件事,隨著我們越來越多地進入企業並獲得更豐富的配置、更多的服務等,真正從我們的GPU 伺服器中獲得越來越多的價值等等,附於此。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Plus the [path of] storage, deployment services, pro support, our consulting services, networking, selling the entire basket of the solution.

    加上儲存、部署服務、專業支援、我們的諮詢服務、網路、銷售整個解決方案的[路徑]。

  • Yvonne McGill - CFO

    Yvonne McGill - CFO

  • But it is a competitive environment out there. So we'll continue to maximize our opportunities.

    但這是一個競爭環境。因此,我們將繼續最大限度地利用我們的機會。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • Yes. So modest growth in traditional, stronger growth in AI-enabled servers and an opportunity with storage, It's the year for growth.

    是的。傳統的溫和成長,人工智慧伺服器的強勁成長以及儲存的機遇,今年是成長的一年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And we'll now take our next question from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

    現在我們將回答摩根大通 Samik Chatterjee 提出的下一個問題。

  • Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

    Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

  • Yvonne and Jeff, thanks for the comments. Yvonne, maybe this is more for you. Just how should we think about higher memory costs playing through the gross margins, particularly in the fourth quarter itself that you reported. And then as we think through fiscal '25, is the -- are the headwinds more in the sort of early quarters and how much of that is sort of baked in, in relation to a headwind for the fiscal '25 guide that you gave for 100 basis points moderation in gross margin?

    伊馮和傑夫,感謝您的評論。伊馮,也許這更適合你。我們應該如何考慮更高的記憶體成本對毛利率的影響,特別是在您報告的第四季。然後,當我們思考 25 財年時,與您給出的 25 財年指南的逆風相比,早期季度的逆風是否更多,以及其中有多少是被吸收的毛利率下降 100 個基點?

  • Yvonne McGill - CFO

    Yvonne McGill - CFO

  • Thanks, Samik. We have taken into account all the information that we have available and has embedded that into the guide, right? So we are expecting it to be an inflationary environment going forward, and we will price that to the best of our ability in the market. Obviously, it's a competitive market. So the guide embeds those expectations. And I don't know if Jeff, if there's anything else you would add to that holistically.

    謝謝,薩米克。我們已經考慮了所有可用的信息並將其嵌入到指南中,對嗎?因此,我們預計未來將出現通膨環境,我們將盡最大努力在市場上定價。顯然,這是一個競爭激烈的市場。因此,該指南嵌入了這些期望。我不知道傑夫是否還有其他需要補充的內容。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • What we know, we have planned that into the guidance that we provided both for the quarter and the year.

    據我們所知,我們已將其計劃納入我們為季度和年度提供的指導中。

  • Yvonne McGill - CFO

    Yvonne McGill - CFO

  • And how we're pricing deals. We have visibility to it, and we're doing what we need to do to maximize our profitability.

    以及我們如何定價交易。我們對此有可見性,並且正在做我們需要做的事情來最大化我們的盈利能力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And we will now take our next question from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

    現在我們將回答 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani 提出的下一個問題。

  • Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • Congrats on a nice set of numbers here. I'll speak to the AI team because that seems to what matters right now. And so Jeff, as you think about sort of the AI backlog of $2.9 billion that you're sitting on, I guess how do you think about that converting to revenue? Sort of what's the cadence you can get that to revenues as you go forward?

    恭喜您獲得了一組不錯的數字。我將與人工智慧團隊交談,因為這似乎是目前最重要的事情。 Jeff,當你想到你所坐擁的 29 億美元的人工智慧積壓訂單時,我猜你如何看待將其轉化為收入?今後您能以什麼樣的節奏實現收入?

  • And then as you folks have talked about this mid-teens growth in ISG, could you maybe parse out and tell us how much you think will be storage versus traditional servers versus what is going to be driven by the AI service for the full fiscal '25.

    然後,當您談論 ISG 的這種十幾歲左右的增長時,您能否分析並告訴我們,您認為存儲與傳統服務器相比,以及人工智能服務將在整個財政年度驅動什麼? 25.

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Well, Amit, there's no easy answer to your question because the backlog is a mixed array, as I mentioned earlier, of H100s, H200s, H800s as well as MI300Xs with varying supply commitments and varying delivery commitments as well as converting new demand of this 5-quarter pipeline that I just mentioned. We believe we will ship more in Q1 than we shipped in Q4. And as we look forward in our annual guidance, Yvonne has our best estimate of our demand and fulfillment of that demand that we've put into the annual guidance.

    好吧,阿米特,你的問題沒有簡單的答案,因為正如我之前提到的,積壓訂單是一個混合陣列,包括H100、H200、H800 以及MI300X,具有不同的供應承諾和不同的交付承諾以及轉換此產品的新需求我剛才提到的 5 季管道。我們相信第一季的出貨量將超過第四季的出貨量。當我們展望年度指導時,伊馮娜對我們的需求以及我們已納入年度指導的需求的滿足情況做出了最佳估計。

  • To be able to parse it down in more detail, we have a product transition that was in front of us that we have to work on, H100, H200, to be specific, and we're taking orders on the new stuff as well as converting current pipeline on the current product, the XE9680 with H100 and Edge as well. So that's what we're working through. You might have seen our lead times have improved, that's reflective of the H100. And our lead times on the other parts are certainly longer. And that's where we're working our way through when supply, commitments and as the demand comes in. I hope that was helpful.

    為了能夠更詳細地解析它,我們面前有一個產品過渡,我們必須進行工作,具體來說是 H100、H200,我們正在接受新產品的訂單以及在當前產品 XE9680 上轉換當前管道以及 H100 和 Edge。這就是我們正在努力解決的問題。您可能已經看到我們的交貨時間有所改善,這反映了 H100。我們其他零件的交貨時間肯定更長。這就是我們在供應、承諾和需求出現時正在努力解決的問題。我希望這對您有所幫助。

  • Yvonne McGill - CFO

    Yvonne McGill - CFO

  • Yes. I may add from a traditional server standpoint, we're expecting modest growth. So growth in the upcoming year. AI servers, certainly a very strong growth, especially from a year-over-year standpoint. And then storage will lag a bit, but we expect tailwinds as the year progresses in the storage portfolio.

    是的。我可以從傳統伺服器的角度補充一下,我們預計會有適度的成長。因此來年的增長。人工智慧伺服器的成長肯定非常強勁,尤其是從同比的角度來看。然後儲存將稍微滯後,但我們預計隨著今年儲存產品組合的進展,將出現順風車。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will now take our next question from Krish Sankar with TD Cowen.

    現在我們將回答 Krish Sankar 和 TD Cowen 提出的下一個問題。

  • Stephen Michael Scala - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Stephen Michael Scala - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • This is Steven calling on behalf of Krish. Jeff, if I could, I wanted to double click a little bit on the storage business. During the January quarter, just given the better than seasonal strength there, can you talk about whether that was driven by sort of the early wave of follow-on AI storage demand following several quarters of AI server demand? Or is that coming from traditional storage demand?

    這是史蒂文代表克里什的電話。傑夫,如果可以的話,我想雙擊一下儲存業務。在一月份的季度中,考慮到那裡的強勁勢頭好於季節性,您能否談談這是否是由幾個季度的人工智能服務器需求之後的後續人工智能存儲需求的早期浪潮推動的?還是來自傳統儲存需求?

  • And secondly, sort of looking here in the near term, I guess when we look at your PowerStore and PowerScale products, which part of the portfolio are your AI-focused customers spending more of their CapEx dollars on? And any thoughts on for every dollar server -- AI server being spent, is it like $0.50 or $0.75 or another $1 of incremental AI storage spending for the down line?

    其次,在短期內,我想當我們查看您的 PowerStore 和 PowerScale 產品時,您的專注於人工智慧的客戶在產品組合的哪一部分上花費了更多的資本支出?對於每花費一美元的伺服器——人工智慧伺服器的支出,是否有 0.50 美元、0.75 美元或另外 1 美元的增量人工智慧儲存支出用於下線?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Sure. A lot of it, see if I can unpack that question into a few answers. So if we look at the demand that we referred to, which was beyond normal seasonality, we had year-over-year demand growth in the unstructured space, ECS as well as PowerScale. They grew quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year on a demand basis. Those are generally good indicators, as I mentioned earlier, around AI, file and object, which is the data classes that generally feed the AI engines.

    當然。很多,看看我是否可以將這個問題分解為幾個答案。因此,如果我們看看我們提到的超出正常季節性的需求,我們會發現非結構化領域、ECS 和 PowerScale 的需求較去年同期成長。它們根據需求逐季和逐年增長。正如我之前提到的,這些通常是圍繞人工智慧、文件和物件的良好指標,這些數據類通常為人工智慧引擎提供數據。

  • So when I think about AI and the now new products that I mentioned earlier with better read and write performance, better coherency performance in these complex workloads, better density, the 710 -- F710, to be specific, and F210 on PowerScale and the ObjectScale XF960, those are the types of products that go into these AI workloads.

    因此,當我想到人工智慧和我之前提到的新產品時,它們具有更好的讀寫性能、這些複雜工作負載中更好的一致性性能、更好的密度,具體而言,710—— F710,以及PowerScale 和ObjectScale 上的F210 XF960,這些是用於這些人工智慧工作負載的產品類型。

  • Our progress in traditional storage was good, too. We were ahead of our normal seasonality, what we had expected from Q3 to Q4, across our traditional storage business. Although we commented this in our talking points, it was down year-over-year, but better than we expected across mid-range, across our data protection products and our high-end storage products.

    我們在傳統儲存方面的進展也很好。在我們的傳統儲存業務中,我們領先於正常的季節性,即我們從第三季到第四季的預期。儘管我們在談話要點中對此進行了評論,但它同比下降,但在中端、資料保護產品和高端儲存產品方面都優於我們的預期。

  • And then if I think long term, going forward, as we look at the opportunity, and again, we referenced the $152 billion in our web deck, we've done some analysis that's available out in the public domain, but we're looking at an opportunity where every dollar that is for an AI server, GPU server, there's $2 to growing $3 of professional services around that, networking around that, storage around that. I won't parse it down specifically.

    然後,如果我從長遠來看,展望未來,當我們尋找機會時,我們再次在我們的網路平台中提到了 1520 億美元,我們已經做了一些可在公共領域使用的分析,但我們正在尋找如果有機會,每花一美元購買人工智慧伺服器、GPU 伺服器,就會有2 美元到3 美元的專業服務、網路和儲存服務。我就不具體解析了。

  • But what's really important is there's a drag that the opportunity in the marketplace continues to grow, not only around the computational asset itself, with the network fabric that it's needed, the storage subsystem to feed it, and then ultimately, the professional services to help customers deploy it, but more importantly, figure out where their data is, how to prepare the data.

    但真正重要的是,市場上的機會持續成長,不僅圍繞著運算資產本身,還包括所需的網路結構、為其提供支援的儲存子系統,以及最終提供幫助的專業服務。客戶部署它,但更重要的是,弄清楚他們的數據在哪裡,如何準備數據。

  • And then ultimately, one of our additional value propositions across that whole spectrum is the financing arm or the ability to provide the infrastructure of all types, the ability to provide services around that and then the financing around it, we believe, is very much part of our differentiation in the marketplace, particularly as this scales to the enterprise.

    最終,我們在整個範圍內的附加價值主張之一是融資部門或提供所有類型基礎設施的能力,圍繞該基礎設施提供服務的能力,然後圍繞它的融資,我們相信,是非常重要的一部分我們在市場上的差異化,特別是當它擴展到企業時。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from the line of Steven Fox with Fox Advisors.

    您的下一個問題來自福克斯顧問公司的史蒂文福克斯。

  • Steven Bryant Fox - Founder & CEO

    Steven Bryant Fox - Founder & CEO

  • I guess, Jeff, just to follow up on that. I understand the traditional lag between storage and servers. But it seems like based on everything you said, there's a chance that storage continues to have a little bit more momentum near term relative to servers. I guess what is -- what am I missing in that, I guess, between going from inference to production type of workloads and seeing some of that extra $2 to $3? Like why wouldn't we expect better server growth -- rather better storage growth quicker this year, this fiscal year?

    我想,傑夫,只是為了跟進此事。我理解儲存和伺服器之間傳統的滯後。但根據您所說的一切,似乎存儲相對於伺服器而言近期有可能繼續保持更大的勢頭。我猜想,在從推理到生產類型的工作負載和看到額外的 2 到 3 美元之間,我錯過了什麼?例如,為什麼我們不期望今年、本財年有更好的伺服器成長,而是更快、更好的儲存成長?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Well, we believe we reflected that in our guidance for the year in ISG. The opportunities as the richer data sets that are beyond text -- text today isn't very data-intensive and can be compressed quite efficiently. As we go to a richer data structure and data sets, this unstructured data opportunity exists as we move towards inference and in production. So that's the opportunity.

    嗯,我們相信我們在 ISG 的今年指導中反映了這一點。機會是超越文本的更豐富的數據集——當今的文本數據並不是非常密集,並且可以非常有效地壓縮。當我們轉向更豐富的資料結構和資料集時,隨著我們走向推理和生產,這種非結構化資料的機會就存在。這就是機會。

  • To be able to call the rate of which enterprise will deploy AI at scale, it's all upside from my point of view. We are literally in the early innings of enterprises deploying and moving from proof of concept and understanding this helps them drive a massive productivity inside their enterprise and to allow them to really disrupt how they bring their products and service to the marketplace and how they serve their customers.

    在我看來,能夠確定哪個企業大規模部署人工智慧的速度,這都是有利的。事實上,我們正​​處於企業部署和從概念驗證轉向的早期階段,這有助於他們在企業內部提高生產力,並讓他們真正顛覆將產品和服務推向市場的方式以及為客戶提供服務的方式。顧客。

  • Just like we are internally, many customers are going through understanding that and building their agendas. And this is a multiyear cycle. We believe that's the opportunity here. We've said publicly the productivity benefit alone is a once-in-a-generation or once in a several-generation productivity uplift. And then the ability to think about how you build products and build your services to serve your customers, there's tremendous capability here that we believe enterprises are in their early characterization and understanding, and it's a long deployment cycle that we believe we'll benefit from and that we're leading the industry in.

    就像我們內部一樣,許多客戶正在了解這一點並製定他們的議程。這是一個多年周期。我們相信這就是機會。我們曾公開表示,生產力的提升本身就是一代人一次或幾代人一次的生產力提升。然後是思考如何建立產品和建立服務來服務客戶的能力,這裡有巨大的能力,我們相信企業正處於早期特徵和理解階段,而且這是一個漫長的部署週期,我們相信我們將從中受益我們在這裡方面處於業界領先地位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will take our next question from Asiya Merchant with Citigroup.

    我們將接受花旗集團 Asiya Merchant 的下一個問題。

  • Asiya Merchant - VP & Analyst

    Asiya Merchant - VP & Analyst

  • Great results, by the way. Just a quick question. I know you guys refreshed sort of your AI TAM as part of this presentation. Just -- the questions that I get from investors, as you think about the $150 billion TAM that you guys are highlighting now in '27, given Dell's share in storage, obviously, your server -- mainstream server share and overall share of TAM in servers, how do you guys think about your share in this $152 billion market by '27? Should we assume the share that you guys have now for servers and storage translates itself into the $150 billion share TAM global [end]?

    順便說一下,結果很好。只是一個簡單的問題。我知道你們在這次演講中刷新了你們的 AI TAM。只是 - 我從投資者那裡得到的問題,當你想到你們現在在 27 年強調的 1500 億美元 TAM 時,考慮到戴爾在存儲領域的份額,顯然,你的服務器 - 主流服務器份額和 TAM 的總體份額伺服器,你們如何看待到27 年你們在這個價值1520 億美元的市場中所佔的份額?我們是否應該假設你們現在擁有的伺服器和儲存份額可以轉化為價值 1500 億美元的 TAM 全球份額[結束]?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Well, that's an interesting question. The inside baseball view here is we are leading the market, and we continue to expect to lead the market with our broad capabilities going forward. I believe it's reasonable at how we think about this internally, that we have our targets set on having a larger percentage of this market than we do in our traditional marketplaces. That's inclusive of the PC.

    嗯,這是一個有趣的問題。棒球內部人士的觀點是,我們正在引領市場,我們繼續期望憑藉我們廣泛的能力來引領市場。我相信我們內部對此的思考是合理的,我們的目標是在這個市場中佔據比我們在傳統市場更大的份額。這包括PC。

  • I think one of the things, again, I think it makes us special and different here, we can reach a large set of customers from the smallest businesses in the world to the largest multinationals in the world. We can service the CSPs. We can bring them the hardware, the GPU servers, in the future, our AIPC, so all of the way out to the edge. We have a broad range of network fabric. We have the storage portfolio that's unmatched in the industry.

    我認為其中一件事,我認為這讓我們在這裡變得特別和與眾不同,我們可以接觸到一大批客戶,從世界上最小的企業到世界上最大的跨國公司。我們可以為 CSP 提供服務。我們可以為他們提供硬體、GPU 伺服器,以及未來我們的 AIPC,這樣就可以一直延伸到邊緣。我們擁有廣泛的網路結構。我們擁有業界無與倫比的儲存產品組合。

  • Our 30-plus thousand service organizations with its -- service organization with the consultant and professional services, organization that we have servicing in 180 different countries allows us incredible breadth to reach customers, to deploy this gear wherever they might have it. The partners that we have with our GSIs and our go-to-market allow us further reach.

    我們的30 多個服務組織及其提供顧問和專業服務的服務組織,我們在180 個不同國家/地區提供服務的組織使我們能夠以令人難以置信的廣度接觸客戶,在他們可能擁有的任何地方部署這些設備。我們與 GSI 的合作夥伴以及我們的市場推廣使我們能夠擴大影響力。

  • So we kind of think of it that way that this is a market that's developing really aligned with the strengths of our company and allows us to extend our model in a very differentiated way, to access this marketplace in a differential manner.

    因此,我們認為這是一個與我們公司的優勢真正相符的市場,使我們能夠以非常差異化的方式擴展我們的模式,以差異化的方式進入這個市場。

  • Not to mention -- I won't be shocked I said this, and I think our engineering capabilities here are pretty unmatched. And this stuff is really hard to tune these models, to build clusters, to get every ounce of performance that you're paying for is real engineering work. And we believe we have the engineering scale to help many customers do this.

    更不用說——我不會對此感到震驚,而且我認為我們這裡的工程能力是無與倫比的。這些東西真的很難調整這些模型,建造集群,獲得你所付出的每一盎司的性能,這是真正的工程工作。我們相信我們的工程規模可以幫助許多客戶做到這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will take our next question from Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

    我們將回答西蒙·利奧波德和雷蒙德·詹姆斯提出的下一個問題。

  • Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

    Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

  • I wanted to see if you could give us a little bit of insight from your perspective of what's going on in various verticals or geographies. So we've really been sort of tackling things sounding a little bit better on traditional and storage. But I'm just wondering if there's any nuance as to where it's coming from, from either market verticals, markets, geographies? What's getting better?

    我想看看您是否可以從您的角度為我們提供一些關於各個垂直行業或地區正在發生的事情的見解。因此,我們確實一直在解決在傳統和儲存方面聽起來更好的問題。但我只是想知道它的來源是否有任何細微差別,無論是來自垂直市場、市場還是地理?什麼情況好轉了?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Simon, was that an AI-specific question or broadly across the business?

    Simon,這是一個特定於人工智慧的問題還是整個企業的普遍問題?

  • Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

    Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

  • Yes. Broadly across the business, really trying to get a sense of what's influencing the business most, apart from this focus on AI?

    是的。在整個業務範圍內,除了對人工智慧的關注之外,是否真的想了解對業務影響最大的因素?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Sure. I'll try to clear with that. Yvonne will help me along the journey here. What we talked about PCs is clearly a cycle where there's caution. You've seen that reflected in our performance and our upcoming guidance. So PC isn't an area where we're seeing the upside yet. Do I expect the PC market to be bigger in calendar '24 than '23? Yes. Do I think the PC market is likely bigger in the second half of '24 than it is in the first half? Absolutely so.

    當然。我會盡力澄清這一點。伊馮(Yvonne)將在旅途中幫助我。我們談論的個人電腦顯然是一個需要謹慎的周期。您已經在我們的業績和即將發布的指導中看到了這一點。因此,我們還沒有看到 PC 領域的優勢。我預計 24 年的 PC 市場會比 23 年更大嗎?是的。我認為 24 年下半年的 PC 市場可能會比上半年更大嗎?絕對是如此。

  • Hence, our remarks that we believe the opportunity in PCs is second half-driven. That is primarily a result of an aging installed base. It's never been bigger and older than it is today. We have a version of Windows that's retiring. And we have hardware-enabled AI PCs with an application base coming that should make it an exciting opportunity to own an AI PC. So that's sort of how that one plays out.

    因此,我們認為個人電腦的機會是下半年驅動的。這主要是由於安裝基礎老化所造成的。它從來沒有像今天這樣更大、更古老。我們有一個即將停用的 Windows 版本。我們擁有支援硬體的人工智慧電腦,以及即將推出的應用程式庫,這將使擁有人工智慧電腦成為一個令人興奮的機會。這就是它的表現。

  • We talked about traditional servers. There's momentum there, 3 consecutive quarters of sequential growth in demand, first quarter in a long time of year-over-year demand growth. We exit with good momentum. We tried to reflect that in our guidance. That is in all geographies.

    我們討論了傳統伺服器。那裡的勢頭強勁,需求連續三個季度連續成長,第一季需求長期年增。我們以良好的勢頭退出。我們試圖在我們的指導中反映這一點。所有地區都是如此。

  • Storage, better than we planned. It was good to see. That was across the unstructured products, as I mentioned, that actually grew demand year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, and our mid-range data protection class products and our high-end products that performed better than we expected on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Yvonne reflected that in our guidance.

    存儲,比我們計劃的要好。很高興看到。正如我所提到的,非結構化產品的需求實際上逐年增長,環比增長,我們的中端資料保護類產品和高端產品的表現比我們預期的要好。按季度計算。伊馮在我們的指導中反映了這一點。

  • That uplift in Q4 comes down in Q1. That's one of the challenges we have when we talk about the storage mix is changing in Q1 over Q4. And then there's just a tremendous uplift with AI. That is clearly the opportunity. It's large, and we believe we're disproportionately participating in it. And it's an exciting category, and that's driving tremendous momentum for us.

    第四季的成長在第一季有所下降。當我們談論第一季與第四季的儲存組合發生變化時,這是我們面臨的挑戰之一。然後人工智慧帶來了巨大的提升。這顯然是一個機會。它規模很大,我們相信我們參與其中的比例不成比例。這是一個令人興奮的類別,為我們帶來了巨大的動力。

  • Yvonne, would you fill what I missed?

    伊馮,你能填補我錯過的東西嗎?

  • Yvonne McGill - CFO

    Yvonne McGill - CFO

  • I think you covered it well. We're expecting, really, growth across the portfolio and across the globe as the year progresses.

    我認為你覆蓋得很好。我們確實預計,隨著時間的推移,整個投資組合和全球範圍內都會出現成長。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • Yes. And then clearly, Simon, from a vertical standpoint, a small business, medium business starting to come back. Public has been strong this year. Federal has been strong. And the education business has been strong. What we're really waiting on is that large corporate, global multinational enterprise business.

    是的。然後很明顯,西蒙,從垂直的角度來看,小型企業、中型企業開始捲土重來。今年民眾表現強勁。聯邦一直很強大。教育業務一直很強。我們真正等待的是大型企業、全球跨國企業業務。

  • And it's natural, I think, for them to be a little bit cautious given the macro, economic, geopolitical and interest rate environment that we found us in over the course of the last -- found ourselves in over the last several quarters. So that's the verticals that we're really looking forward to come back later this year. And as you know, that's kind of a sweet spot for Dell from a customer standpoint. So I appreciate your questions.

    我認為,考慮到我們過去幾季所處的宏觀、經濟、地緣政治和利率環境,他們自然會有點謹慎。這就是我們真正期待今年稍後回歸的垂直領域。如您所知,從客戶的角度來看,這對戴爾來說是一個最佳選擇。所以我很感激你的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And we'll take our next question from Ben Reitzes with Melius Research.

    我們將回答 Melius Research 的 Ben Reitzes 提出的下一個問題。

  • Benjamin Alexander Reitzes - MD & Head of Technology Research

    Benjamin Alexander Reitzes - MD & Head of Technology Research

  • Jeff and Yvonne, how confident are you that you're going to get enough GPUs to grow from about a $1 billion level in AI servers in the first quarter? And then, Jeff, if you don't mind, can you just give us some more color on what you're excited about? I mean do you feel like the H200 is a multi-quarter cycle? The B100, do you feel like you're going to get them and be able to drive that into 2025? And any color on AMD and your early momentum there would be appreciated.

    Jeff 和 Yvonne,你們對獲得足夠的 GPU 來實現第一季 AI 伺服器規模約 10 億美元的成長有多大信心?然後,傑夫,如果你不介意的話,你能給我們更多關於你興奮的事情的資訊嗎?我的意思是你覺得H200是一個多季度循環嗎? B100,你覺得你會得到它們並能夠將其駕駛到 2025 年嗎? AMD 的任何顏色以及您早期的動力都會受到讚賞。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Ben, let me try to work my way through the -- look, it's our job in the Dell supply chain to get the supply that is aligned with our demand. I think the others have commented. I'll make our comment. The demand for these things is in excess of the supply. That continues certainly into next year. We're doing everything we can to get us much of that as we need for our customers. The methodology and allocation hasn't materially changed. We understand that. We're working that, and we'll continue to do so.

    Ben,讓我嘗試一下——看,我們在戴爾供應鏈中的工作就是獲得符合我們需求的供應。我想其他人已經發表了評論。我將發表我們的評論。這些東西的需求超過了供應。這種情況肯定會持續到明年。我們正在盡一切努力滿足客戶的需求。方法和分配沒有發生重大變化。我們明白這一點。我們正在努力,並將繼續這樣做。

  • I like what we've been able to accomplish thus far. I like our view with what I know at this moment in time for calendar '24, fiscal '25. I'd also tell you, it's a little more complex this year. Last year is basically the H100 show. This year, I think I rattled off 4 different variants, and there's a transition associated with that.

    我喜歡我們迄今為止所取得的成就。我喜歡我們的觀點以及我目前所知道的 24 年曆、25 財年的觀點。我還想告訴你,今年的情況有點複雜。去年基本上就是H100秀。今年,我想我已經提出了 4 種不同的變體,並且有一個與之相關的轉變。

  • Some customers will more rapidly move to that than others. We have to manage through that, and it's reflected in our pipeline and our pipeline conversion, and ultimately, our backlog and what we call inside the company are our delivery date schedules of what commitments we've made to different customers. We understand that. We know when we need the parts, we work through that. This easily continues next year.

    有些客戶會比其他客戶更快轉向這一領域。我們必須對此進行管理,這反映在我們的管道和管道轉換中,最終,我們的積壓工作和我們在公司內部所說的就是我們對不同客戶做出的承諾的交付日期計劃。我們明白這一點。我們知道當我們需要零件時,我們會盡力解決。這種情況很容易在明年繼續下去。

  • Obviously, any line of sight to changes that we're excited about what's happening with the H200 and its performance improvement. We're excited about what happens at the B100 and the B200, and we think that's where there's actually another opportunity to distinguish engineering confidence. Our characterization in the thermal side, you really don't need direct liquid cooling to get to the energy density of 1,000 watts per GPU.

    顯然,任何視線變化都讓我們對 H200 所發生的事情及其性能改進感到興奮。我們對 B100 和 B200 所發生的事情感到興奮,我們認為這實際上是另一個區分工程信心的機會。根據我們在熱方面的表徵,您實際上不需要直接液體冷卻即可達到每個 GPU 1,000 瓦的能量密度。

  • That happens next year with the B200. The opportunity for us really to showcase our engineering and how fast we can move and the work that we've done as an industry leader to bring our expertise to make liquid cooling perform at scale, whether that's things in fluid chemistry and performance, our interconnect work, the telemetry we are doing, the power management work we're doing, it really allows us to be prepared to bring that to the marketplace at scale to take advantage of this incredible computational capacity or intensity or capability that will exist in the marketplace.

    明年的 B200 就會實現這一點。我們有機會真正展示我們的工程設計以及我們的發展速度,以及我們作為行業領導者所做的工作,以利用我們的專業知識大規模地實現液體冷卻,無論是在流體化學和性能方面,還是在我們的互連方面工作,我們正在做的遙測,我們正在做的電源管理工作,它確實使我們能夠準備好將其大規模推向市場,以利用市場上存在的這種令人難以置信的計算能力或強度或能力。

  • What I'm excited about is this continues to rapidly move to the enterprise. This continues to rapidly move to businesses, really using it to drive business outcomes. Again, that's what we're in business to do. Our large portfolio, broad portfolio allows, we believe, for us to do that in a very differentiated manner at scale. That's the opportunity.

    令我興奮的是,這種技術正在繼續快速地轉移到企業中。這繼續迅速轉移到企業,真正利用它來推動業務成果。再說一遍,這就是我們要做的事。我們相信,我們龐大的投資組合、廣泛的投資組合使我們能夠以非常差異化的方式大規模地做到這一點。這就是機會。

  • Someone is kicking in at the desk. I need to mention we got a storage opportunity in there, that we have a networking opportunity in there, and we have a services opportunity in there and to go for the last of the bunch of financing opportunities. So those -- how could you not be excited about that given the demand environment?

    有人在桌上踢腳。我需要提到的是,我們在那裡有一個儲存機會,我們在那裡有一個網路機會,我們在那裡有一個服務機會,並且可以尋求最後的融資機會。那麼,考慮到需求環境,你怎麼能不對此感到興奮呢?

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • All right. Appreciate that question. We've got a very tight reporting cycle with some others in the space. And so we're going to take 1 last question, and Jeff is going to do a quick close. Appreciate everyone joining.

    好的。感謝這個問題。我們與該領域的其他一些公司有非常嚴格的報告週期。我們將回答最後一個問題,傑夫將做一個快速的總結。感謝大家的加入。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll now take our final question from Michael Ng with Goldman Sachs.

    現在我們將回答高盛邁克爾吳 (Michael Ng) 提出的最後一個問題。

  • Michael Ng - Research Analyst

    Michael Ng - Research Analyst

  • I just had a question on the full year guidance. Can you talk about how you're thinking about the segment margins relative to their respective long-term ranges? And any swing factors that may cause performance towards the higher end or the lower end?

    我剛剛對全年指導有疑問。您能否談談您如何看待相對於各自長期範圍的細分利潤率?是否有任何搖擺因素可能導致業績向高端或低端發展?

  • Yvonne McGill - CFO

    Yvonne McGill - CFO

  • Sure. Thanks, Michael, for that. We are -- as we think through the full year guide, we are, as I talked about, thinking of not only the inflationary component cost environment, but the more competitive environment that we've been seeing. We are expecting -- we've talked about the dilutive rate impact within ISG of our AI-optimized servers.

    當然。謝謝邁克爾。正如我所說,當我們思考全年指南時,我們不僅考慮了通貨膨脹的成本環境,還考慮了我們所看到的更具競爭性的環境。我們預計—我們已經討論了我們的人工智慧優化伺服器對 ISG 的稀釋率影響。

  • And so if we play that through, we're looking to have better performance holistically for -- at a company level, but I think it will be different by quarter. And especially with the mix we're seeing from an AI standpoint, Jeff just talked about all of the variants that are at play. And so expecting continued -- or expecting improvement as the year progresses from a margin standpoint, but it will be quite dynamic with the component cost environment and the competitive environment.

    因此,如果我們徹底解決這個問題,我們希望在公司層面上獲得更好的整體績效,但我認為每個季度都會有所不同。尤其是從人工智慧的角度來看,傑夫剛剛談到了所有正在發揮作用的變體。因此,從利潤率的角度來看,預計會持續下去,或者預計隨著今年的進展,情況會有所改善,但隨著零件成本環境和競爭環境的變化,情況將非常動態。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • So with that, let me wrap up the call. We clearly have AI momentum. Whether engineering, services and financing expertise, we are well positioned to continue to grow. And more broadly, we expect to return to growth across ISG and CSG for the year, led by ISG growing in the mid-teens. We're pretty excited about that. With that comes solid cash generation that you would expect us to return to our shareholders. Thank you for joining us today.

    那麼,讓我結束這通通話。我們顯然擁有人工智慧的動力。無論是工程、服務或融資專業知識,我們都處於持續發展的有利位置。更廣泛地說,我們預計今年 ISG 和 CSG 將恢復成長,其中 ISG 的成長率將達到 15%左右。我們對此感到非常興奮。隨之而來的是穩定的現金產生,您會期望我們將其回報給我們的股東。感謝您今天加入我們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect at this time.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開連線。