戴爾 (DELL) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

在電話會議上,戴爾公佈第三季營收下降 10%,至 223 億美元,但維持強勁的毛利率並減少了營運費用。該公司經歷了定價壓力增加和儲存需求放緩,但對傳統伺服器和人工智慧優化伺服器的需求有所增加。

戴爾預計未來 PC 更新週期和傳統伺服器需求將反彈。他們對 25 財年持樂觀態度,並預計明年將恢復成長。

該公司討論了對其人工智慧優化伺服器的需求顯著增長,並將人工智慧市場視為一個巨大的機會。他們也提到了 25 財年的潛在利潤率和每股盈餘成長。儘管面臨挑戰,戴爾仍然對未來持樂觀態度,並將繼續執行其營運模式。

他們專注於獲利成長、定價紀律和成本控制。公司旨在產生強勁的現金流並為利害關係人創造長期價值。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon, and welcome to the Fiscal Year 2024 Third Quarter Financial Results Conference Call for Dell Technologies Inc. I'd like to inform all participants this call is being recorded at the request of Dell Technologies. This broadcast is a copyrighted property of Dell Technologies Inc. Any rebroadcast of this information in whole or in part without the prior written permission of Dell Technologies is prohibited. (Operator Instructions)

    下午好,歡迎參加戴爾科技集團 2024 財年第三季財務業績電話會議。我想通知所有與會者,本次電話會議是應戴爾科技集團的要求進行錄音的。本廣播是 Dell Technologies Inc. 的版權財產。未經 Dell Technologies 事先書面許可,禁止全部或部分轉播此資訊。 (操作員說明)

  • I'd like to turn the call over to Rob Williams, Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Williams, you may begin.

    我想將電話轉給投資者關係主管 Rob Williams。威廉斯先生,您可以開始了。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • Thanks, everyone, for joining us. With me today are Jeff Clarke, Yvonne McGill and Tyler Johnson. Our earnings materials are available on our IR website, and I encourage you to review these materials and the presentation, which includes additional content to complement our discussion this afternoon. Guidance will be covered on today's call.

    謝謝大家加入我們。今天和我在一起的有傑夫克拉克、伊馮麥吉爾和泰勒約翰遜。我們的收益資料可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到,我鼓勵您查看這些資料和演示文稿,其中包括補充我們今天下午討論的其他內容。今天的電話會議將討論指導意見。

  • During this call, unless otherwise indicated, all references to financial measures refer to non-GAAP financial measures, including non-GAAP gross margin, operating expenses, operating income, net income and diluted earnings per share. A reconciliation of these measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in our web deck and our press release. Growth percentages refer to year-over-year change unless otherwise specified.

    在本次電話會議中,除非另有說明,所有提及的財務指標均指非 GAAP 財務指標,包括非 GAAP 毛利率、營運費用、營運收入、淨利潤和稀釋每股盈餘。您可以在我們的網路平台和新聞稿中找到這些衡量標準與其最直接可比較的公認會計原則衡量標準的協調表。除非另有說明,增長百分比指的是同比變化。

  • Statements made during this call that relate to future results and events are forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results and events could differ materially from those projected due to a number of risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our web deck and our SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

    本次電話會議期間發表的與未來結果和事件相關的聲明是基於當前預期的前瞻性聲明。由於許多風險和不確定性,實際結果和事件可能與預測有重大差異,這些風險和不確定性在我們的網路平台和 SEC 文件中進行了討論。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

  • Now I'll turn it over to Jeff.

    現在我把它交給傑夫。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Thanks, Rob. We delivered Q3 revenue of $22.3 billion with solid profitability and strong cash flow. Operating income was $2 billion. Diluted EPS was $1.88, and cash flow from operations was $2.2 billion.

    謝謝,羅布。我們第三季的營收為 223 億美元,獲利能力穩健,現金流強勁。營業收入為 20 億美元。稀釋後每股收益為 1.88 美元,營運現金流為 22 億美元。

  • In ISG, the demand environment for traditional servers improved over the course of the quarter, and demand for AI servers continues to be strong across a wider range of customers. Demand for storage was down as expected. ISG revenue was flat quarter-on-quarter with sequential growth in servers and networking revenue driven by AI-optimized servers as we begin to convert more PowerEdge XE9680 backlog into revenue. For the quarter, we shipped over $0.5 billion of AI-optimized servers, including our XE9680, XE9640, XE8640 and the R750 and R760xa servers. Customer demand for these AI servers nearly doubled sequentially, and demand remains well ahead of supply.

    在ISG中,傳統伺服器的需求環境在本季度有所改善,並且更廣泛的客戶對AI伺服器的需求持續強勁。儲存需求如預期下降。 ISG 收入環比持平,隨著我們開始將更多 PowerEdge XE9680 積壓訂單轉化為收入,人工智慧優化伺服器推動伺服器和網路收入連續成長。本季度,我們的人工智慧優化伺服器出貨量超過 5 億美元,包括 XE9680、XE9640、XE8640 以及 R750 和 R760xa 伺服器。客戶對這些人工智慧伺服器的需求幾乎連續翻倍,而且需求仍然遠遠超過供應。

  • In CSG, the demand momentum we saw in June and July continued into August but slowed as the quarter progressed. The result was CSG revenue was down sequentially and short of our expectations. Operationally, we executed well, remaining disciplined on pricing in an increasingly competitive environment. And we controlled our expenses, focusing on profit and cash flow, including outstanding working capital performance.

    在南方電網,我們在 6 月和 7 月看到的需求動能持續到 8 月,但隨著季度的進展而放緩。結果是南玻營收季減,低於我們的預期。在營運方面,我們執行得很好,在競爭日益激烈的環境中保持了定價紀律。我們控制了開支,並專注於利潤和現金流,包括出色的營運資本績效。

  • And lastly, we've returned another $1 billion to shareholders via share repurchase and dividends. Yvonne will go into more details on cash flow and capital returns later.

    最後,我們透過股票回購和股利向股東返還了另外 10 億美元。伊馮稍後將詳細介紹現金流和資本回報。

  • AI continues to dominate the technology in business conversation. Customers across the globe are turning their operations upside down to see how they can use generative AI to advance their businesses in meaningful ways. These AI initiatives are being driven at the CEO and Board levels. And as a result, we are at the front of a significant TAM expansion.

    人工智慧繼續在商業對話中佔據主導地位。全球各地的客戶正在徹底改變他們的營運方式,以了解如何使用生成式人工智慧以有意義的方式推進他們的業務。這些人工智慧舉措是由執行長和董事會層面推動的。因此,我們處於 TAM 重大擴張的前沿。

  • AI-optimized server mix increased to 33% of total server orders revenue in Q3, driven by strong demand from AI-focused cloud service providers and growing interest from other customer verticals. We drove improved demand margins, increased services attached and incremental unstructured storage attached over the course of the quarter. The XE9680 is the fastest-ramping solution in Dell history. And in Q3, we continue to see strong demand and big wins, including customers like CoreWeave, a cloud provider that specializes in GPU accelerated workloads, and Imbue, which is using high-performance computing clusters powered by the XE9680 servers to train foundational models.

    在專注於人工智慧的雲端服務供應商的強勁需求以及其他垂直客戶日益增長的興趣的推動下,第三季人工智慧優化的伺服器組合佔伺服器訂單總收入的 33%。在本季度中,我們推動了需求利潤率的提高、附加服務的增加以及附加非結構化儲存的增量。 XE9680 是戴爾史上速度最快的解決方案。在第三季度,我們繼續看到強勁的需求和巨大的勝利,包括專門從事 GPU 加速工作負載的雲端供應商 CoreWeave 和 Imbue 等客戶,Imbue 使用由 XE9680 伺服器支援的高效能運算叢集來訓練基礎模型。

  • Our AI-optimized server backlog nearly doubled versus the end of Q2 with a multibillion-dollar sales pipeline, including increasing interest across all regions. That all said, AI hype is everywhere, and we need to be measured in our expectations. We are still in the early innings with AI as customers continue to work through their AI strategies. Experience over multiple technology cycles tells us that progress won't always be linear, but we are excited about the opportunity in front of us.

    我們的人工智慧優化伺服器積壓量與第二季末相比幾乎翻了一番,銷售管道達數十億美元,包括所有地區的興趣不斷增加。話雖如此,人工智慧炒作無所不在,我們需要衡量我們的期望。隨著客戶繼續實施他們的人工智慧策略,我們仍處於人工智慧的早期階段。多個技術週期的經驗告訴我們,進步並不總是線性的,但我們對眼前的機會感到興奮。

  • We believe Dell is uniquely positioned with our broad portfolio to help customers size, characterize and build GenAI solutions that meet their performance, cost and security requirements. Our AI strategy, AI in our products, AI built on our solutions, AI for our business and AI for our ecosystem partners, is the foundation for our actions, priorities, road maps and partnerships. And in Q3, we continue to build our capabilities.

    我們相信,戴爾擁有獨特的優勢,我們廣泛的產品組合可以幫助客戶確定、描述和建立 GenAI 解決方案,以滿足他們的性能、成本和安全要求。我們的人工智慧策略、我們產品中的人工智慧、基於我們解決方案的人工智慧、我們業務的人工智慧以及我們生態系統合作夥伴的人工智慧,是我們行動、優先事項、路線圖和合作夥伴關係的基礎。在第三季度,我們繼續增強我們的能力。

  • We are collaborating with Meta to make it easy for our customers to deploy Meta's Llama 2 models on premises, with Dell AI-optimized portfolio. We are also collaborating with Hugging Face to help users create and fine-tune and implement their own open-source GenAI models on Dell infrastructure. And earlier this month, we introduced the ObjectScale XF960, an all-flash scale-out appliance for GenAI and real-time analytics based on our software-defined object storage solution, which can run on Linux and Red Hat OpenShift on PowerEdge servers.

    我們正在與 Meta 合作,讓我們的客戶能夠輕鬆地在本地部署 Meta 的 Llama 2 模型以及戴爾 AI 優化的產品組合。我們還與 Hugging Face 合作,幫助用戶在戴爾基礎設施上創建、微調和實施自己的開源 GenAI 模型。本月早些時候,我們推出了ObjectScale XF960,這是一款用於GenAI 和基於我們的軟體定義物件儲存解決方案進行即時分析的全快閃橫向擴展設備,它可以在PowerEdge 伺服器上的Linux 和Red Hat OpenShift 上執行。

  • Looking forward, the recovering ramp in PC demand we were expecting in Q3 has pushed out with large enterprises and corporate customers remaining cautious with their spending. The PC installed base continues to age, and there are exciting changes coming to the PC next year, including advances in AI-enabled architectures from Intel, AMD and Windows on ARM, which will help drive a PC refresh cycle. We are also seeing the beginning of a traditional server rebound, and historically, storage follows a couple of quarters later.

    展望未來,我們預計第三季個人電腦需求的復甦已被推遲,大型企業和企業客戶對其支出保持謹慎。 PC 安裝基數持續老化,明年 PC 將會發生令人興奮的變化,包括英特爾、AMD 和 Windows on ARM 的人工智慧架構的進步,這將有助於推動 PC 更新週期。我們也看到傳統伺服器開始反彈,從歷史上看,儲存會在幾個季度後出現反彈。

  • We are leveraging our strengths to extend our leadership positions and turn new opportunities, including multi-cloud, edge and AI, into incremental growth. And we are positive on FY '25 and fully expect to return to growth next year given the expected tailwinds to our various businesses, including AI.

    我們正在利用我們的優勢來擴大我們的領導地位,並將包括多雲、邊緣和人工智慧在內的新機會轉化為增量成長。我們對 25 財年持樂觀態度,並充分預期明年將恢復成長,因為我們的各種業務(包括人工智慧)預計將受到推動。

  • Technology is everywhere, and Dell is ready. The amount and value of data continues to grow, and as that happens, the opportunity for Dell Technology grows in tandem. We have proven that over 4 decades through wave after wave of innovation. And we have proven our ability to capture the growth as our TAM expands and translate that into results for our stakeholders. Regardless of the economic cycle, expect us to focus on growing and extending our core businesses in the areas with the most attractive profits to deliver innovation for our customers, remain disciplined in our pricing and focus on costs.

    科技無所不在,戴爾已做好準備。數據量和價值不斷增長,戴爾技術的機會也隨之增長。四十多年來,我們透過一波又一波的創新證明了這一點。我們已經證明,我們有能力隨著 TAM 的擴展而實現成長,並將其轉化為利害關係人的成果。無論經濟週期如何,希望我們能夠專注於在利潤最具吸引力的領域發展和擴展我們的核心業務,為我們的客戶提供創新,保持嚴格的定價並專注於成本。

  • Now over to Yvonne for the detailed Q3 financials.

    現在請 Yvonne 了解第三季的詳細財務數據。

  • Yvonne McGill - CFO

    Yvonne McGill - CFO

  • Thanks, Jeff. We're focused on driving a balance of growth, profitability and cash flow in any demand environment. We delivered revenue of $22.3 billion, down 10%, with strong gross margins, lower operating expense and improved working capital management. Gross margin was $5.3 billion and 23.7% of revenue, flat year-over-year.

    謝謝,傑夫。我們致力於在任何需求環境中推動成長、獲利能力和現金流的平衡。我們的營收為 223 億美元,下降 10%,毛利率強勁,營運費用較低,營運資金管理得到改善。毛利率為 53 億美元,佔營收的 23.7%,與去年同期持平。

  • We continue to see increased pricing pressure in Q3 but remain focused on profitable opportunities. And you should expect us to continue to maintain discipline and focus going forward. Operating expense was $3.3 billion or 14.9% of revenue, down 5%, driven by lower SG&A costs, and down 7% sequentially as we actively manage our spend.

    我們繼續看到第三季的定價壓力增加,但仍關注獲利機會。您應該期望我們繼續保持紀律並專注前進。營運費用為 33 億美元,佔收入的 14.9%,由於 SG&A 成本下降,下降了 5%;由於我們積極管理支出,營運費用環比下降了 7%。

  • Operating income was $2 billion, down 17%, and 8.8% of revenue with the impact of a decline in revenue, partially offset by lower operating expense. Our tax rate was 19.2% year-to-date or 15.4% for the quarter.

    營業收入為 20 億美元,下降 17%,佔收入的 8.8%,收入下降的影響被營業費用下降部分抵銷。年初至今我們的稅率為 19.2%,本季稅率為 15.4%。

  • Net income was $1.4 billion, down 19%, and diluted EPS was $1.88, down 18%. Our recurring revenue in the quarter was $5.6 billion, up 4%. And our remaining performance obligation, or RPO, was $39 billion, flat year-over-year, with growth in deferred revenue offset by a decrease in backlog.

    淨利潤為 14 億美元,下降 19%,攤薄後每股收益為 1.88 美元,下降 18%。本季我們的經常性收入為 56 億美元,成長 4%。我們的剩餘履約義務 (RPO) 為 390 億美元,與去年同期持平,遞延收入的成長被積壓訂單的減少所抵消。

  • Deferred revenue was up primarily due to increases in software and hardware maintenance agreements and VMware resell. ISG revenue was $8.5 billion, down 12% and flat sequentially. Servers and networking revenue was $4.7 billion, up 9% sequentially. We saw server ASPs continue to expand in both AI-optimized and traditional servers, and our AI mix of server demand accelerated again sequentially given customer interest in GenAI.

    遞延收入的成長主要是由於軟體和硬體維護協議以及 VMware 轉售的增加。 ISG 營收為 85 億美元,下降 12%,與上一季持平。伺服器和網路收入為 47 億美元,比上一季成長 9%。我們看到伺服器 ASP 在 AI 優化伺服器和傳統伺服器中繼續擴展,鑑於客戶對 GenAI 的興趣,我們的伺服器需求的 AI 組合再次加速。

  • We delivered storage revenue of $3.8 billion, down 13%, with demand growth in data protection and PowerScale. ISG operating income was $1.1 billion or 12.6% of revenue, down 170 basis points, driven by a decline in revenue, partially offset by an increase in gross margin rate.

    隨著資料保護和 PowerScale 需求的成長,我們的儲存收入達到 38 億美元,下降 13%。 ISG 營業收入為 11 億美元,佔營收的 12.6%,下降 170 個基點,原因是收入下降,但部分被毛利率上升所抵銷。

  • Looking forward, our many #1 positions are proof of our deep enterprise expertise. And with a TAM of $200 billion growing at a 7% CAGR over the next few years, we are confident in our ability to grow the business as the market returns to growth.

    展望未來,我們許多第一名的職位證明了我們深厚的企業專業知識。未來幾年,TAM 將以 7% 的複合年增長率成長,達到 2000 億美元,我們對隨著市場恢復成長而發展業務的能力充滿信心。

  • Our fiscal Q3 CSG revenue was $12.3 billion, down 11%, primarily driven by a decline in units, while ASPs remained flat. Commercial and consumer revenue were $9.8 billion and $2.4 billion, respectively. CSG profitability remained strong in Q3 with operating income up $0.9 billion or 7.5% of revenue. Op inc was down 20 basis points, driven by a decline in revenue, offset by lower operating expense and an increase in gross margin rate as we maintained pricing discipline and benefited from lower input costs. With a TAM of $400 billion growing at a 2% CAGR, we will continue to focus on commercial, the high end of consumer, profitable relative performance and executing our direct attach motion for services, software, peripherals and financing.

    我們第三財季的 CSG 營收為 123 億美元,下降 11%,主要是由於銷量下降,而平均售價保持不變。商業和消費者收入分別為 98 億美元和 24 億美元。 CSG 第三季獲利能力依然強勁,營業收入成長 9 億美元,佔營收的 7.5%。 Op inc 下跌了 20 個基點,原因是收入下降,但被營運費用下降和毛利率上升所抵消,因為我們維持定價紀律並受益於較低的投入成本。隨著TAM 達到4000 億美元,複合年增長率為2%,我們將繼續專注於商業、高端消費者、有利可圖的相對業績,並執行我們針對服務、軟體、週邊設備和融資的直接附加行動。

  • During the quarter, we saw continued strength in APEX and our data center utility and Flex on Demand offerings and added new multi-cloud offerings, including APEX Cloud Platform for Azure and Red Hat OpenShift.

    在本季度,我們看到 APEX 以及我們的資料中心實用程式和 Flex on Demand 產品持續強勁,並添加了新的多雲產品,包括適用於 Azure 和 Red Hat OpenShift 的 APEX 雲端平台。

  • Our Q3 Dell Financial Services originations were $1.8 billion. DFS ending managed assets reached $13.9 billion, up 1%, while the overall DFS portfolio quality remains strong with credit losses near historically low levels.

    我們第三季戴爾金融服務的原始資金為 18 億美元。 DFS 期末管理資產達到 139 億美元,成長 1%,而 DFS 投資組合的整體品質依然強勁,信貸損失接近歷史最低水準。

  • Turning to our cash flow and balance sheet. Our cash flow from operations was $2.2 billion, primarily driven by working capital improvement and profitability. Working capital benefited from an approximately $200 million sequential decline in inventory, strong collections performance and continued improvement in receivables aging. Our cash conversion cycle improved again sequentially and is now at negative 52 days, a 20-day improvement since the end of last year. We ended the quarter with $9.9 billion in cash and investments, flat sequentially, driven by free cash flow generation, offset by $1 billion in capital returns.

    轉向我們的現金流和資產負債表。我們的營運現金流為 22 億美元,主要是由營運資本改善和獲利能力推動的。營運資本受惠於庫存環比下降約 2 億美元、強勁的收款表現以及應收帳款帳齡的持續改善。我們的現金週轉週期再次較上季改善,目前為負 52 天,自去年年底以來改善了 20 天。本季結束時,我們的現金和投資為 99 億美元,環比持平,這主要是受到自由現金流產生的推動,但被 10 億美元的資本回報所抵消。

  • Core leverage was 1.6x exiting Q3, flat sequentially. During the quarter, we repurchased 11.2 million shares of stock at an average price of $66.55 and paid a $0.37 per share quarterly dividend.

    第三季核心槓桿率為 1.6 倍,較上季持平。本季度,我們以平均價格 66.55 美元回購了 1,120 萬股股票,並支付了每股 0.37 美元的季度股息。

  • Turning to guidance. Enterprise and large corporate customers continue to be cautious in the current macro environment. Against that backdrop, we expect Q4 revenue to be in the range of $21.5 billion and $22.5 billion, with a midpoint of $22 billion. Sequentially, we expect ISG revenue to be up mid-single digits, driven by sequential growth in traditional servers and seasonal growth in storage. We expect CSG revenue to be down low-single digits sequentially. We're seeing pockets of stability in PC demand but have yet to see a broader recovery in the PC market. And in our other business segment, we expect to be down in the low 20s sequentially.

    轉向指導。企業和大企業客戶在當前宏觀環境下持續保持謹慎態度。在此背景下,我們預計第四季營收將在 215 億美元至 225 億美元之間,中位數為 220 億美元。接下來,在傳統伺服器連續成長和儲存季節性成長的推動下,我們預計 ISG 營收將成長中個位數。我們預計南方電網的收入將環比下降低個位數。我們看到個人電腦需求出現穩定,但尚未看到個人電腦市場出現更廣泛的復甦。在我們的其他業務領域,我們預計將連續下降 20 左右。

  • Operating income rate should be down marginally versus Q3, driven by a more competitive pricing environment in CSG. And for our tax rate, you should assume roughly 20% plus or minus 100 basis points for Q4 or 19.5% at the midpoint for the full year. We expect our Q4 diluted share count to be between 729 million and 733 million shares, and our diluted EPS should be $1.70, plus or minus $0.10. We're increasing our expectations for the full year diluted earnings per share to $6.63, plus or minus $0.10.

    由於南玻更具競爭力的定價環境,營業利潤率應較第三季小幅下降。對於我們的稅率,您應該假設第四季度大約為 20% 加減 100 個基點,或全年中點為 19.5%。我們預計第四季度稀釋後股票數量將在 7.29 億股至 7.33 億股之間,稀釋後每股收益應為 1.70 美元,正負 0.10 美元。我們將全年攤薄每股收益預期上調至 6.63 美元,上下浮動 0.10 美元。

  • Turning to FY '25. It's still early in our planning process. However, I recognize you're thinking about next year. So let me share our current thinking. We're seeing signs of stability and inflection in parts of the portfolio, including traditional and AI-optimized servers. We expect revenue to return to growth next year, above our long-term financial framework. The opportunity is the broader IT spending recovery with large corporate and enterprise customers, particularly in the U.S.

    轉向 25 財年。我們的規劃過程仍處於早期階段。不過,我知道你正在考慮明年。那麼讓我來分享一下我們目前的想法。我們看到部分產品組合出現了穩定和變化的跡象,包括傳統伺服器和人工智慧優化伺服器。我們預計明年收入將恢復成長,高於我們的長期財務框架。機會在於大型企業客戶的 IT 支出更廣泛的復甦,尤其是在美國。

  • We'll continue to focus on profitable growth, but we'll be mindful of the competitive environment and inflationary input costs as we move through the next year. Pricing discipline and cost controls will help mitigate these headwinds. Count on us to continue to execute our unique operational model focused on cash flow and returning capital to shareholders. And we look forward to updating our FY '25 expectations in more detail on our Q4 earnings call.

    我們將繼續關注獲利成長,但明年我們將關注競爭環境和通膨投入成本。定價紀律和成本控制將有助於緩解這些不利因素。相信我們將繼續執行我們獨特的營運模式,專注於現金流並向股東返還資本。我們期待在第四季財報電話會議上更詳細地更新我們 25 財年的預期。

  • In closing, we have strong conviction in the growth of our TAM over the long term with technology trends like AI, multi-cloud and edge in our favor. At the end of the day, our strategy is simple: Leverage our unique operating advantages to extend our #1 leadership position and capture new growth. This strategy, coupled with our P&L leverage and strong cash generation, drives a resilient long-term financial framework and capital allocation plan. We have proven our ability to generate strong cash flow through profitability and working capital efficiency, including $9.9 billion of cash flow from operations over the last 12 months. And at our Analyst Meeting last month, we committed to increasing capital returns to our shareholders.

    最後,我們對 TAM 的長期成長充滿信心,人工智慧、多雲和邊緣等科技趨勢對我們有利。歸根結底,我們的策略很簡單:利用我們獨特的營運優勢,擴大我們第一的領導地位並捕捉新的成長。這項策略,加上我們的損益槓桿和強勁的現金產生能力,推動了富有彈性的長期財務框架和資本配置計畫。我們已經證明了我們有能力透過獲利能力和營運資金效率產生強勁的現金流,包括過去 12 個月來自營運的 99 億美元現金流。在上個月的分析師會議上,我們承諾增加股東的資本回報。

  • Expect us to continue to invest in innovation, be disciplined in how we manage the business and focus on what we can control, delivering for our customers and our shareholders. We are excited about the future and confident in our ability to create meaningful long-term value for all of our key stakeholders.

    希望我們繼續投資創新,嚴格管理業務,專注於我們可以控制的事情,為我們的客戶和股東提供服務。我們對未來感到興奮,並對我們為所有主要利害關係人創造有意義的長期價值的能力充滿信心。

  • Now I'll turn it back to Rob to begin Q&A.

    現在我將把它轉回給 Rob 開始問答。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • Thanks, Yvonne. Let's get to Q&A. We ask that each participant ask one question to allow us to get to as many of you as possible. Let's go to the first question.

    謝謝,伊馮。讓我們開始問答。我們要求每位參與者提出一個問題,以便我們能夠接觸到盡可能多的人。我們先來說第一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will take our first question from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

    我們將回答 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani 提出的第一個問題。

  • Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • I guess maybe to go to the AI server demand discussion, Jeff, that you had. I think you essentially said your orders doubled. So does that imply something north of $4 billion right now? And then how do you think that manifests itself into revenues into fiscal '25? And maybe you can touch about how broad this customer base is becoming versus perhaps hyperscaler. That would be really helpful.

    我想也許可以參加人工智慧伺服器需求討論,Jeff,你參加過。我想你基本上是說你的訂單增加了一倍。那麼這是否意味著目前的金額已超過 40 億美元?那麼您認為這如何體現在 25 財年的收入中?也許您可以了解這個客戶群與超大規模客戶相比的範圍有多大。這真的很有幫助。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Sure. Let me pull that apart, Amit. So I mentioned our demand nearly doubled quarter-over-quarter. And what was, I thought, very interesting about that is every part of the AI-optimized portfolio grew quarter-over-quarter, and we saw significant growth for enterprise customers. So I think that's important to note, is we saw the entire portfolio grow. We saw the number of customers grow, and we saw the number of enterprise customers grow quarter-over-quarter.

    當然。讓我把它拆開,阿米特。所以我提到我們的需求是月增了近一倍。我認為,非常有趣的是,人工智慧優化產品組合的每個部分都逐季成長,我們看到企業客戶的顯著成長。所以我認為值得注意的是,我們看到整個投資組合都在成長。我們看到客戶數量正在成長,我們看到企業客戶數量逐季成長。

  • When I think about the $2 billion that you mentioned, that was a backlog comment that we made in August. And what we talked in August was a $2 billion of backlog. And that included, up until that point in time, the August first month of the quarter because that was a real-time update of our backlog $2 billion. We shipped over $0.5 billion of AI-optimized servers during the quarter. So when we think about demand nearly doubling, and I mentioned backlog doubled, we like you to part with $1.6 billion of AI-optimized servers backlog at the fiscal exit of Q3.

    當我想到你提到的 20 億美元時,這是我們在 8 月提出的積壓評論。我們在 8 月討論的是 20 億美元的積壓訂單。其中包括截至該時間點的本季 8 月第一個月,因為這是我們 20 億美元積壓訂單的即時更新。本季我們售出了超過 5 億美元的人工智慧優化伺服器。因此,當我們考慮到需求幾乎翻倍,並且我提到積壓翻倍時,我們希望您在第三季財政退出時放棄 16 億美元的人工智慧優化伺服器積壓。

  • Equally important, we saw the pipeline in the quarter triple. I'll say that again. The pipeline for AI-optimized servers tripled quarter-over-quarter during Q3. Lead times remain 39 weeks. Demand is ahead of supply. We continue to work to improve supply. And we're working now to convert that pipeline into real sales, into orders, so we can continue to ship and benefit from this exciting time.

    同樣重要的是,我們看到本季的管道數量增加了兩倍。我再說一次。第三季度,人工智慧優化伺服器的管道數量比上一季增加了兩倍。交貨時間仍為 39 週。需求領先供應。我們將繼續努力改善供應。我們現在正在努力將管道轉化為實際銷售、訂單,以便我們可以繼續發貨並從這個激動人心的時刻中受益。

  • As far as next year, Yvonne, I'm sure, will talk about this in greater detail. But we're still in the planning process. We think it's a tailwind. We talked about it at each of our last financial engagements. It's a large market opportunity, 18% CAGR over the next 4 years, growing to $120-ish billion. There's nothing that suggests that's not the case. And it's not coming at the cost of our traditional servers.

    就明年而言,我確信伊馮會更詳細地談論這個問題。但我們仍在規劃過程中。我們認為這是順風。我們在最近的每次財務活動中都討論過這個問題。這是一個巨大的市場機會,未來 4 年複合年增長率為 18%,成長至 1200 億美元左右。沒有任何跡象表明情況並非如此。而且它不會以犧牲我們的傳統伺服器為代價。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • All right. Thanks, Jeff. Next question.

    好的。謝謝,傑夫。下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will take our next question from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

    我們將回答美國銀行 Wamsi Mohan 的下一個問題。

  • Wamsi Mohan - MD in Americas Equity Research

    Wamsi Mohan - MD in Americas Equity Research

  • I appreciate the early look into fiscal '25. Given some of the puts and takes that you called out, both on revenues and margins, just wondering when you say it's going to be higher than your long-term range, is the comment pertinent to overall Dell Tech? Or is it also a comment that we can attribute both to CSG and ISG? Frankly, we're coming off cyclical bottoms, in so many of your businesses, it feels as though you should be able to materially outgrow. So any kind of maybe characterization of that would be helpful.

    我很欣賞對 25 財年的早期研究。考慮到您在收入和利潤方面提出的一些看跌期權和看跌期權,只是想知道您何時說它將高於您的長期範圍,該評論是否與整個戴爾科技相關?或者這也是我們可以歸咎於CSG和ISG的評論嗎?坦白說,我們正在走出週期性底部,在你們的許多業務中,感覺你們應該能夠在實質上超越成長。因此,任何一種可能的描述都會有所幫助。

  • And also on the cost side, Yvonne, I think you noted pricing discipline, cost controls but also some headwinds. So just thinking through that, would you say that there is also upside from a margin perspective or EPS growth rate perspective?

    在成本方面,伊馮,我認為您注意到了定價紀律、成本控制,但也注意到了一些阻力。因此,仔細思考一下,您是否會說從利潤率或每股盈餘成長率的角度來看也有上升的空間?

  • Yvonne McGill - CFO

    Yvonne McGill - CFO

  • Thanks, Wamsi. I'd tell you, we're certainly at the early stages of the planning process. We usually wrap that process in the January time frame. But I recognize everyone's interested in next year. So I wanted to give you a little bit more context there.

    謝謝,瓦姆西。我想告訴你,我們確實處於規劃過程的早期階段。我們通常在一月份的時間範圍內完成該過程。但我知道每個人都對明年感興趣。所以我想為您提供更多背景資訊。

  • We expect to return to growth, as I mentioned on the call already, above our long-term financial framework. And so we're seeing an inflection point in traditional servers in addition to those AI-optimized momentum that we've been talking about. And we expect servers and networking holistically to be a bigger portion of our ISG mix in the next year.

    正如我在電話會議中提到的那樣,我們預計將在長期財務框架之上恢復成長。因此,除了我們一直在談論的人工智慧優化勢頭之外,我們還看到傳統伺服器出現了拐點。我們預計明年伺服器和網路將在我們的 ISG 組合中佔據更大的比例。

  • If I move to PCs, our growth expectations will be dependent on the timing of the PC refresh cycle. We are also expecting a decline, and mentioned it for Q4 also, in VMware reseller revenue with no impact to profitability. We're expecting a more competitive environment overall. We started to see that in the third quarter. So we'll expect that to continue, especially in the PC market into the next year.

    如果我轉向個人電腦,我們的成長預期將取決於個人電腦更新周期的時間。我們也預期 VMware 經銷商收入會下降,並且在第四季度也提到這一點,但對獲利能力沒有影響。我們期待整體競爭更加激烈的環境。我們在第三季開始看到這一點。因此,我們預計這種情況將持續下去,尤其是在明年的個人電腦市場。

  • Other things to consider, input costs are expected to be inflationary next year, led by NAND and DRAM. And of course, as we always do, we'll continue to be mindful of our cost structure. But regardless of the environment that we're operating in, right, we will continue to execute our proven operational model. You can continue to count on us to be financially disciplined, all while driving growth, profitability and cash flow. We're really optimistic about FY '25 and really excited about returning to growth, and look forward to giving you all even more context and update in our Q4 earnings call in February.

    其他需要考慮的因素是,明年的投入成本預計將出現通膨,其中 NAND 和 DRAM 為首。當然,正如我們一貫所做的那樣,我們將繼續關注我們的成本結構。但無論我們所處的營運環境如何,我們都將繼續執行我們經過驗證的營運模式。您可以繼續信賴我們在財務上遵守紀律,同時推動成長、獲利能力和現金流。我們對 25 財年非常樂觀,對恢復成長感到非常興奮,並期待在 2 月的第四季財報電話會議上為大家提供更多背景資訊和最新資訊。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • All right. Thanks for the question, Wamsi. Next question, operator.

    好的。謝謝你的提問,瓦姆西。下一個問題,操作員。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will take our next question from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

    我們將回答托尼·薩科納吉和伯恩斯坦提出的下一個問題。

  • A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

    A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

  • Your tone on the call around the demand environment sounds very, very different than it was 90 days ago, where you talked about growth accelerating and a rebound in spending better than you had thought. And it sounds like the complete opposite this quarter. You were wildly above normal seasonality in Q2. You were below normal seasonality in Q3, and you're guiding below normal seasonality again for Q4. Did you just misgauge demand in Q2? Like was there a pull in from Q3 to Q2 and you just misgauged the characterization of demand 90 days ago? Or like what really happened and changed?

    您在有關需求環境的電話會議上的語氣聽起來與 90 天前非常非常不同,當時您談到成長加速和支出反彈比您想像的要好。本季的情況聽起來完全相反。第二季的季節性遠高於正常水平。第三季的季節性低於正常水平,第四季的預期再次低於正常季節性。您是否錯誤地估計了第二季的需求?就像從第三季到第二季有拉力一樣,您只是錯誤地估計了 90 天前的需求特徵嗎?或者就像真正發生和改變的事情一樣?

  • And if I could, I just want to clarify the AI situation. So it would be helpful if you could just give an update right now in your backlog relative to 90 days ago, which was $2 billion. And if I think about what you're seeing in terms of the pipeline, it sounds very credible that backlog could be like $5 billion exiting this year. If it's a 9-month lead time, shouldn't we expect like $5 billion to $7 billion in AI server delivery? And if you're saying servers are -- demand is improving for traditional servers, why shouldn't we expect a gargantuan number for servers next year?

    如果可以的話,我只想澄清一下人工智慧的情況。因此,如果您現在能夠在積壓工作中提供相對於 90 天前(價值 20 億美元)的更新,將會很有幫助。如果我考慮一下您所看到的管道情況,今年的積壓訂單可能會達到 50 億美元,這聽起來非常可信。如果交付週期為 9 個月,我們不應該期望 AI 伺服器交付金額達到 50 億至 70 億美元嗎?如果你說伺服器——傳統伺服器的需求正在改善,為什麼我們不應該期望明年伺服器的數量會很大呢?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Well, Toni, that's a few questions. Let me work my way through those. So what happened? You recall in Q2, we talked about the improved demand in June and July for PCs. And that certainly helped us close the quarter, and we benefited from that. And when we were together in August, we had seen that continue in August. In fact, through the month of August, the first month of the quarter, our PC business was up year-over-year. And then things changed. The business started to slow. It slowed in September. It slowed more in October.

    好吧,托尼,這是幾個問題。讓我來解決這些問題。所以發生了什麼事?您還記得在第二季度,我們談到了 6 月和 7 月 PC 需求的改善。這無疑幫助我們結束了本季度,我們也從中受益。當我們八月在一起時,我們看到這種情況在八月繼續。事實上,整個八月,也就是本季的第一個月,我們的個人電腦業務較去年同期成長。然後事情發生了變化。生意開始放緩。 9 月增速放緩。十月增速放緩更多。

  • We saw more cautiousness from our customers. We saw them being more selective, particularly large commercial customers, enterprise customers and particularly in North America. We saw the public sector slowdown, while at the same time, we actually saw stabilization in [SP]. But the big change was the number of large deals slowed over the course of the quarter as our customers again became more cautious and selective.

    我們看到客戶更加謹慎。我們發現他們更具選擇性,特別是大型商業客戶、企業客戶,尤其是北美地區的客戶。我們看到公共部門放緩,同時,我們實際上看到[SP]穩定。但最大的變化是,隨著我們的客戶再次變得更加謹慎和挑剔,本季的大型交易數量有所放緩。

  • And as the market slowed, which you've probably seen in some of the output numbers from the OEMs, we saw increased pricing pressure. So the pricing pressure changed in PCs from August to October. Those large deals became more competitive. I think you also saw inventory that was shipped in the June and July period. Now it was caught up, and you saw promotional pricing throughout the quarter. And it was more aggressive as we exited the quarter and we ended the quarter.

    隨著市場放緩(您可能已經在原始設備製造商的一些產量數據中看到了這一點),我們看到了定價壓力的增加。因此,從 8 月到 10 月,PC 的定價壓力發生了變化。這些大宗交易變得更具競爭力。我想您還看到了六月和七月期間發貨的庫存。現在它被追上了,你在整個季度都看到了促銷價格。當我們退出本季並結束本季時,它變得更加激進。

  • So that did change the PCs. We did not see or call the slowdown in our guidance. The guidance that Yvonne and I gave a quarter ago was what we saw through August, and we were optimistic that we were seeing a recovery. It's clearly pushed. Things have slowed, while at the same time, we now have 2 consecutive quarters of quarter-over-quarter growth of our traditional or data center servers, and we have the tailwind of AI continuing to grow.

    這確實改變了個人電腦。我們在指導中沒有看到或稱經濟放緩。伊馮和我一個季度前給的指導是我們整個八月看到的,我們對看到復甦感到樂觀。很明顯是被推的。事情已經放緩,與此同時,我們的傳統或數據中心伺服器現在已經連續兩個季度實現環比增長,並且我們有人工智慧持續增長的推動力。

  • As I mentioned earlier, the pipeline of AI tripled in the quarter. Demand doubled -- nearly doubled quarter-over-quarter. So those are the tailwinds of the change that we see in the business. The biggest change was PCs because storage performed as expected.

    正如我之前提到的,人工智慧的管道在本季增加了兩倍。需求翻了一番——幾乎翻了一番。這些都是我們在業務中看到的改變的推動力。最大的變化是個人電腦,因為儲存效能符合預期。

  • Backlog, the number I'm going to give you is the Q3 exit backlog was $1.6 billion. Orders nearly doubled. Pipeline tripled. Our job is to convert that. We're working with our field, our customers to convert that pipeline. That grew significantly. The interest in our AI products continues to be strong. On-premise deployment at AI -- or interest continues to be strong. The fact that we now have been working with Meta and Llama 2, bringing that on-prem, Hugging Face in an open-source environment to bring those models and tools on-prem, I think, continue to reiterate AI is going to follow the data. The data is on-prem, and we believe the pipeline and opportunity continues to build for us.

    積壓,我要給你的數字是第三季退出積壓為 16 億美元。訂單幾乎翻倍。管道增加了兩倍。我們的工作就是將其轉化。我們正在與我們的領域、我們的客戶合作來改造該管道。增長顯著。人們對我們的人工智慧產品的興趣持續濃厚。人工智慧的本地部署——或者說興趣仍然很濃厚。事實上,我們現在一直在與 Meta 和 Llama 2 合作,將 Hugging Face 引入開源環境中,以將這些模型和工具引入到本地,我認為,繼續重申人工智慧將遵循數據。數據是本地的,我們相信管道和機會會繼續為我們建立。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • All right. Thanks for the answer there, and thanks for the question, Toni. I'd like to think that our tone would be transparent and honest. And that's what I hope you hear from us, is that we call it like we see it, and we give you the best view that we can give you at that point in time. So appreciate the question, Toni. Next question, please.

    好的。感謝您的回答,也感謝托尼的提問。我想我們的語氣是透明和誠實的。這就是我希望您從我們這裡聽到的,我們會像看到的那樣稱呼它,並且我們會為您提供當時所能提供的最佳視圖。所以很欣賞這個問題,托尼。請下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Erik Woodring with Morgan Stanley.

    我們將回答摩根士丹利的艾瑞克‧伍德林 (Erik Woodring) 提出的下一個問題。

  • Erik William Richard Woodring - Research Associate

    Erik William Richard Woodring - Research Associate

  • Awesome. Jeff, I just want to kind of dig into some of your comments about spending on AI-optimized infrastructure and the impact that might have on traditional hardware spending because obviously, there's a lot of money, as you're very clearly showing us, being thrown at AI-related infrastructure. So can you just maybe give us a bit more detail on what gives you confidence that this spending won't cannibalize traditional either general compute spend or overall hardware spending as we look out over the next 12-plus months? What are the signposts that you're looking at that give you that confidence?

    驚人的。傑夫,我只是想深入了解您關於人工智慧優化基礎設施支出的一些評論以及可能對傳統硬體支出產生的影響,因為顯然,正如您非常清楚地向我們展示的那樣,有很多錢扔給人工智慧相關的基礎設施。那麼,您能否給我們更多詳細信息,讓您相信,在我們展望未來 12 個多月的情況下,這筆支出不會蠶食傳統的一般計算支出或總體硬體支出?您看到的哪些路標給了您信心?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Of course, Erik. Let me try. So we believe what we've seen for 2 consecutive quarters in our traditional server business is growth. That's grown sequentially from 1 to 2, now 2 to 3. What we saw for the first time this year was the pipeline actually grow in quarter for traditional servers. That's a very encouraging sign.

    當然,埃里克.讓我嘗試。因此,我們相信我們的傳統伺服器業務連續兩個季度都在成長。從 1 個連續增長到 2 個,現在從 2 個增長到 3 個。今年我們第一次看到傳統伺服器的管道實際上按季度增長。這是一個非常令人鼓舞的跡象。

  • We saw the adoption of our brand-new 16G server double quarter-over-quarter. We saw the activity with our sales force and our accounts increased. We saw the opportunities in large deals increased towards the end of the quarter. Our conversion improved over the course of the quarter. And I think those signals tell us that this 8-quarter digestion of what was built or bought, I should say, through the course of COVID has now worked its way through the system that data centers need to be updated, upgraded additional capacity.

    我們看到全新 16G 伺服器的採用率比上一季翻了一番。我們看到我們的銷售人員和客戶的活動增加。我們看到大型交易的機會在本季末有所增加。我們的轉換率在本季有所改善。我認為這些訊號告訴我們,我應該說,在新冠肺炎疫情期間對建造或購買的 8 個季度的消化現在已經透過系統發揮作用,資料中心需要更新、升級額外容量。

  • Those workloads continue -- need to be fed. More data is being created, while at the same time, there's a whole new category of computing, accelerated computing, AI-optimized computing fed by all of the market momentum around generative AI that says that there's a big opportunity in both that we think early signs -- I'm not going to -- I won't use that word that you probably want me to use, there's recovery, but we have early positive signs that there's a changing in the demand profile of traditional servers. And we're seeing a lot of excitement across our broad portfolio of AI-optimized servers that have us feeling pretty good, as Yvonne just mentioned, about next year.

    這些工作負載仍在繼續——需要滿足。更多的數據正在被創建,與此同時,出現了一個全新的計算類別,加速計算,人工智能優化計算,由圍繞生成人工智能的所有市場動力推動,這表明我們早期認為這兩者都存在巨大的機會跡象——我不會——我不會使用你可能希望我使用的詞,即復甦,但我們有早期的積極跡象表明傳統伺服器的需求狀況正在改變。正如伊馮剛剛提到的,我們在廣泛的人工智慧優化伺服器產品組合中看到了很多令人興奮的事情,這讓我們對明年感覺非常好。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • Does that get out of your question, Erik? I just want to make sure that's...

    這不是你的問題嗎,艾瑞克?我只是想確定那是...

  • Erik William Richard Woodring - Research Associate

    Erik William Richard Woodring - Research Associate

  • Yes, absolutely. Very clear.

    是的,一點沒錯。非常清楚。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • Okay. Good. Appreciate it, Erik. Next question.

    好的。好的。欣賞它,埃里克。下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Ben Reitzes with Melius Research.

    我們將回答 Melius Research 的 Ben Reitzes 提出的下一個問題。

  • Benjamin Alexander Reitzes - MD & Head of Technology Research

    Benjamin Alexander Reitzes - MD & Head of Technology Research

  • Appreciate it. I wanted to ask about PCs with regard to your comments around 2025. What is -- are you expecting that growth to be above model? And what do you think the impact will be of the Windows 10 expiration and some of the new chips coming out that harness AI? If you don't mind touching on that, that would be great.

    欣賞它。我想詢問一下您對 2025 年左右 PC 的評論。您預計這種增長會高於模型嗎?您認為 Windows 10 的到期以及一些利用人工智慧的新晶片的出現會產生什麼影響?如果您不介意觸及這一點,那就太好了。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Sure. Let me take a run at it, Ben. It probably is important to set context as we're heading into calendar '24, our fiscal '25, in PCs. We expect the market to close in Q4 being down. It will be 8 quarters of negative growth in the PC industry, the longest I can recollect. And it's ripe for a refresh.

    當然。本,讓我來嘗試一下。當我們即將進入 PC 的 24 財年、25 財年時,設定背景可能很重要。我們預計第四季市場將下跌。 PC產業將連續8季出現負成長,這是我記憶中最長的一次。刷新的時機已經成熟。

  • Another data point for you to think about, there'll be 300 million PCs turning 4 years old next year. That's typically a tipping point for upgrading in commercial. And most of those are notebooks. As everybody was working remote, the notebook mix went up, 300 million PCs that year. They're aging in time to refresh.

    您需要考慮的另一個數據點是,明年將有 3 億台 PC 進入 ​​4 歲生日。這通常是商業升級的轉捩點。其中大部分是筆記本。由於每個人都在遠端工作,筆記型電腦的數量增加了,當年有 3 億台電腦。他們隨著年齡的增長而煥發活力。

  • And we have the opportunity with new architectures from Intel, AMD and Windows on ARM to really begin to see AI make its way out to the edge and to PC. And it's a pretty exciting time. I've used the moniker, the notion of this is the next great application, the next great use case of the greatest productivity device on the planet, and it's coming real next year.

    我們有機會利用英特爾、AMD 和 Windows on ARM 的新架構,真正開始看到人工智慧走向邊緣和 PC。這是一個非常令人興奮的時刻。我使用了這個綽號,它的概念是下一個偉大的應用程序,是地球上最偉大的生產力設備的下一個偉大的用例,並且它將在明年成為現實。

  • So I think 8 quarters of decline, an aging installed base and installed base of greater than 1.5 billion units, 750 million of them over 4 years, all 300 million more coming next year. That will age, become 4 years old, the time to upgrade. None of those are capable of running the new AI workloads coming out to the edge and the PC, new architectures coming that are exciting and interesting. And we have what you said around Windows. There's another forcing function of an upgrade.

    因此,我認為會出現 8 個季度的下降,裝機量老化,裝機量超過 15 億台,其中 7.5 億台是在 4 年內安裝的,明年還會增加 3 億台。那就會老化,變成4歲,升級的時候了。這些都無法運行邊緣和 PC 上出現的新人工智慧工作負載,即將出現的新架構令人興奮且有趣。我們有您所說的 Windows 相關內容。升級還有另一個強制功能。

  • So historically, when a new version of Windows is available or one is retired, that drives a replacement cycle, and that's an opportunity for us. So we're excited about that, particularly given our bias towards commercial. 80% of our revenue comes from the commercial PCs. I think the opportunity is good for us.

    因此,從歷史上看,當新版本的 Windows 可用或某個版本停用時,就會推動更換週期,這對我們來說是一個機會。所以我們對此感到興奮,特別是考慮到我們對商業的偏見。我們80%的收入來自商用PC。我認為這個機會對我們來說是好事。

  • And then the other question was around the silicon alternatives. Was that it, if I remember correctly?

    另一個問題是圍繞矽替代品。如果我沒記錯的話,是這樣嗎?

  • Benjamin Alexander Reitzes - MD & Head of Technology Research

    Benjamin Alexander Reitzes - MD & Head of Technology Research

  • I think you hit on everything. I just -- the clarification is just PC is above -- PC is also above model as well as server and ISG. That's probably the final...

    我認為你對一切都感興趣。我只是——澄清一下,PC 高於——PC 也高於型號以及伺服器和 ISG。這大概就是最後的結局了…

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Specifically, our internal model would have the PC market growing somewhere in the low single digits. Think 3% to 4%. You would expect us to grow -- to take share.

    具體來說,我們的內部模型將使個人電腦市場以較低的個位數成長。認為是 3% 到 4%。你會期望我們成長——分享份額。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Asiya Merchant with Citi.

    我們將接受花旗銀行 Asiya Merchant 的下一個問題。

  • Asiya Merchant - VP & Analyst

    Asiya Merchant - VP & Analyst

  • A couple of questions on my end. Just on the AI opportunity that you talked about in the enterprise, maybe if you could share with us the workloads and the use cases that you're now seeing. Is this gone beyond the cloud service providers that you talked about that you're interacting with? I think you mentioned CoreWeave and Imbue on the call. But if I recall, there was some commentary as well on enterprises. So are you seeing an opportunity for your [CI] pipeline growing with the enterprise use cases? If you can share any anecdotes on that.

    我最後有幾個問題。就您在企業中談到的人工智慧機會而言,也許您可以與我們分享您現在看到的工作負載和用例。這是否超出了您所談論的正在與之互動的雲端服務提供者的範圍?我想您在電話會議中提到了 CoreWeave 和 Imbue。但我記得也有一些針對企業的評論。那麼,您是否看到了 [CI] 管道隨著企業用例而成長的機會?如果您可以分享任何有關這方面的軼事。

  • And then on share buybacks, obviously, you kicked that up this quarter. Should we expect this level of share buybacks to continue into fiscal '25? Or given improving cash conversion cycles, improving top line, we should see a further step-up in that run rate?

    然後,在股票回購方面,顯然,您在本季度加快了步伐。我們是否應該預期這種水準的股票回購會持續到 25 財年?或者考慮到現金轉換週期的改善和營收的改善,我們應該會看到運行率進一步提高?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Sure. I'll lead with the AI question. A couple of maybe specific data points to help understand and characterize what we're seeing. Number of buyers up. Number of enterprise buyers up significantly. All of the portfolio saw quarter-over-quarter growth. And the reason that's important, because not everybody needs a 9680. Smaller models, smaller data sets, perfect setup for our other products, which line itself up with where we're seeing the opportunities in enterprise.

    當然。我將先提出人工智慧問題。一些可能具體的數據點可以幫助理解和描述我們所看到的情況。買家數量上升。企業採購商數量大幅增加。所有投資組合均實現季度環比成長。這很重要,因為並不是每個人都需要 9680。更小的模型、更小的資料集、我們其他產品的完美設置,這與我們在企業中看到的機會是一致的。

  • So institutions of higher education, financial services, health care and life services and manufacturing is where we're seeing pull for our products. That's data on-prem. That's models. That's doing AI and ML work across the board. That's what we're seeing, and we're pretty excited about that. And the tripling of the pipeline included enterprise customers and enterprise demand.

    因此,高等教育機構、金融服務、醫療保健、生活服務和製造業是我們產品的吸引力。這是本地資料。那是模型。這就是全面進行人工智慧和機器學習工作。這就是我們所看到的,我們對此感到非常興奮。管道數量增加了兩倍,其中包括企業客戶和企業需求。

  • Tyler W. Johnson - Senior VP & Treasurer

    Tyler W. Johnson - Senior VP & Treasurer

  • And I'll take the share buyback. Look, I think as you mentioned, look, we tripled share repurchase this quarter versus last quarter. As a reminder, last year, cash was really kind of running more on the weaker side, and we had pulled back and focused more on dilution management. And then as we've seen cash accelerate this year, it's put us in a good position so that we could be a little bit more opportunistic.

    我將回購股票。看,我認為正如您所提到的,看,我們本季的股票回購量是上季的兩倍。提醒一下,去年,現金確實在弱勢方面運行得更多,我們已經撤回並更多地關注稀釋管理。然後,隨著我們今年看到現金加速成長,這使我們處於有利地位,因此我們可以更加投機。

  • We don't typically guide around share repurchase, but I guess the way I would frame it is we're obviously very focused on the 80% plus capital return. If you go back to when we first started our dividend, which would have been FY '23, the beginning of FY '23, we're running at 96% return of capital. So I feel really good about that. And I do think recognizing we don't guide, I think it's fair to say, as we look forward, we'll definitely be repurchasing more than just dilution management.

    我們通常不會圍繞股票回購進行指導,但我想我的框架方式是我們顯然非常關注 80% 以上的資本回報。如果你回到我們第一次開始派息的時候,也就是 23 財年,23 財年年初,我們的資本報酬率為 96%。所以我對此感覺很好。我確實認為,認識到我們不提供指導,我認為可以公平地說,隨著我們的展望,我們肯定會回購不僅僅是稀釋管理的產品。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • All right. Thanks, Asiya. Appreciate it.

    好的。謝謝,阿西婭。欣賞它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Mike Ng with Goldman Sachs.

    我們將回答高盛邁克吳 (Mike Ng) 提出的下一個問題。

  • Michael Ng - Research Analyst

    Michael Ng - Research Analyst

  • I just have 2 quick ones on AI. First, on the AI margin profile, you obviously had very strong ISG margins in the quarter despite rising contributions from AI server mix. So could you just talk a little bit about how much of a headwind to that ISG margin rate came from the rising mix of AI servers, if that's the right way to think about it?

    我只有 2 個關於 AI 的快速內容。首先,在人工智慧利潤率方面,儘管人工智慧伺服器組合的貢獻不斷增加,但本季 ISG 利潤率顯然非常強勁。那麼,您能否簡單談談 AI 伺服器組合的不斷增加對 ISG 利潤率的不利影響有多大(如果這是正確的思考方式的話)?

  • And then second, I was just wondering if you could talk about the relationship between AI servers and networking and storage for you guys. Should we expect some of that AI sales pipeline that you talked about to eventually include selling Ethernet for AI or InfiniBand or more storage in the near term?

    其次,我想知道你們能否為你們談談人工智慧伺服器與網路和儲存之間的關係。我們是否應該期望您談到的一些人工智慧銷售管道最終包括在短期內銷售用於人工智慧或 InfiniBand 或更多儲存的乙太網路?

  • Yvonne McGill - CFO

    Yvonne McGill - CFO

  • So let me start with the impact of margin rates. We did see a little bit of dilution, if you will, from the impact of the shipment, as we called out, but really not a material impact right now. We saw nice performance really across the server -- holistic server portfolio. And so that increase that Jeff already talked about in the traditional servers was helpful in that mix.

    讓我從保證金率的影響開始。正如我們所說,我們確實看到了一點點稀釋,如果你願意的話,由於發貨的影響,但目前確實沒有實質影響。我們確實在整個伺服器上看到了良好的效能——整體伺服器產品組合。因此,傑夫已經在傳統伺服器中談到的增加對於這種組合很有幫助。

  • So it does have an impact, but we've talked about it being margin dollar accretive but margin rate dilutive. And so we saw a little bit of that but not to a significant extent in our third quarter. But expect as that grows, we will see more of an impact. Again, margin dollar accretive. And so -- and as we have more services attached, as we expand that into the enterprise space, we'll see more and more margin accretion coming from those AI offerings.

    所以它確實有影響,但我們已經討論過它會增加保證金美元,但會稀釋保證金率。因此,我們在第三季看到了一些這種情況,但程度並不明顯。但預計隨著這種成長,我們將看到更多的影響。再次,保證金美元增值。因此,隨著我們附加更多服務,當我們將其擴展到企業領域時,我們將看到這些人工智慧產品帶來越來越多的利潤成長。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • No, I think that's a great point, Yvonne. The team did a great job improving margins of our AI-optimized servers quarter-over-quarter, selling the value, the design, the performance attributes, its thermal attributes, its connectivity attributes. And then attaching storage and services around it allowed us to see improved margins quarter-over-quarter.

    不,我認為這是一個很好的觀點,伊馮。該團隊在銷售價值、設計、效能屬性、散熱屬性和連接屬性方面,出色地提高了我們的人工智慧優化伺服器的利潤率。然後,圍繞它附加儲存和服務使我們能夠看到利潤率逐季度提高。

  • And Mike, to your question, is there a relationship between storage and networking with AI, absolutely. These are typically cluster -- small clusters, large clusters, high bandwidth needed. We see it ultimately deployed out where the data is being created. Much of the data that will be created in the future is outside of the data center. Much of that data is unstructured. Much of that opportunity is really a nice -- a really nice tie to what we do with our own structured and object assets. And then networking is the high-speed interconnect, the fabric. They matter. They matter more. Whether it's InfiniBand or ultra Ethernet, those are all exciting new technologies for us.

    麥克,對於你的問題,儲存和網路與人工智慧之間是否存在絕對的關係。這些通常是集群——小型集群、大型集群、需要高頻寬。我們看到它最終部署在創建資料的地方。未來將創建的大部分數據都在數據中心之外。其中大部分的數據都是非結構化。其中大部分機會確實是一個很好的 - 與我們使用自己的結構化和物件資產所做的事情有著非常好的聯繫。然後網路就是高速互連,即結構。它們很重要。它們更重要。無論是 InfiniBand 還是超以太網,這些都是讓我們興奮的新技術。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will take our next question from Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

    我們將回答西蒙·利奧波德和雷蒙德·詹姆斯提出的下一個問題。

  • Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

    Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

  • Great. I wanted to see if you could unpack what you see going on trend-wise in storage, particularly given that -- I know you said it came in as expected, but the revenue was a bit light versus Street expectations, and it looks like it's still down year-over-year in the next quarter. And where my question is going is to think about the longer-term trend because I'm wondering, is AI pulling money away from storage? And do you see essentially margins trending better or worse given shifts in input costs and the better margins that some of your peers have called out recently? Just wondering how you're seeing that trend as well.

    偉大的。我想看看你是否能解開你所看到的儲存趨勢,特別是考慮到——我知道你說它按預期進行,但與華爾街的預期相比,收入有點少,而且看起來像是下一季仍較去年同期下降。我的問題是思考長期趨勢,因為我想知道人工智慧是否會從儲存中奪走資金?鑑於投入成本的變化以及一些同行最近提出的更好的利潤率,您認為利潤率本質上趨勢是好還是壞?只是想知道您如何看待這種趨勢。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Sure. Maybe a couple of data points, and Yvonne can chime in as well. From us, when you think about margins, since that was the last comment, we saw our storage margins improve quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year on a [demand basis]. That's exciting. We continue to sell the value of our products and the broad portfolio we have.

    當然。也許有幾個數據點,伊馮也可以插嘴。對我們來說,當你考慮利潤率時,因為這是最後一次評論,我們看到我們的儲存利潤率在[需求基礎]上逐季度和逐年提高。真令人興奮。我們繼續銷售我們產品的價值和我們擁有的廣泛的產品組合。

  • We do see customers cautious. A large concentration of the storage businesses is in very large customers, and they're absolutely being cautious and selective. And that clearly impacts our high-end product portfolio. But what was exciting during the quarter is we saw our data protection and our unstructured categories actually growing on orders basis year-over-year.

    我們確實看到客戶持謹慎態度。儲存業務主要集中在非常大的客戶身上,他們絕對是謹慎和有選擇性的。這顯然會影響我們的高端產品組合。但本季令人興奮的是,我們看到我們的資料保護和非結構化類別實際上在訂單基礎上逐年成長。

  • So when I think about the opportunities around protecting valuable data, when I think about the opportunities of what data is going to be created, again, unstructured largely outside of the data center at the edge, I think it's a great opportunity for us to continue to protect these valuable workloads and the opportunity for us to be where the data is created out at the edge with our vast array of unstructured assets.

    因此,當我想到保護有價值數據的機會時,當我想到將要創建哪些數據的機會時,這些數據大部分是在邊緣數據中心之外的非結構化數據,我認為這對我們來說是一個很好的機會,可以繼續保護這些寶貴的工作負載以及我們利用大量非結構化資產在邊緣創建資料的機會。

  • So I don't think AI pulls away storage dollars. I think what we see is the effect of 8 quarters of server decline has impacted storage. Customers are cautious. Historically, as the server business rebounds and recovers, we think our experience tells us that storage lags it by about a couple of quarters. That's what we're expecting. We see nothing that suggests that's different. And in the meantime, the opportunity around unstructured is immense, and we'll continue to focus on that.

    所以我不認為人工智慧會奪走儲存資金。我認為我們看到的是伺服器連續 8 個季度下降對儲存產生了影響。顧客很謹慎。從歷史上看,隨著伺服器業務的反彈和恢復,我們認為我們的經驗告訴我們,儲存落後於它大約幾個季度。這就是我們所期待的。我們沒有看到任何跡象表明情況有所不同。同時,非結構化的機會是巨大的,我們將繼續關注這一點。

  • Yvonne McGill - CFO

    Yvonne McGill - CFO

  • And I'd add, Jeff, on that. The margin accretion that you referred to on storage is real, and it's great because it's going to be recognized over time in the P&L, right, with the high services and software attached. So we don't see all that benefit today, but we'll see it going forward.

    傑夫,我想補充一點。您提到的儲存方面的利潤成長是真實的,這很棒,因為隨著時間的推移,隨著附加的高服務和軟體,它會在損益表中得到認可,對吧。因此,我們今天看不到所有這些好處,但我們將在未來看到它。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • Next question.

    下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

    我們將接受德意志銀行 Sidney Ho 的下一個問題。

  • Shek Ming Ho - Director & Senior Analyst

    Shek Ming Ho - Director & Senior Analyst

  • Great. I have a question on AI as well. It's great to see very good momentum in that business. Are there any concerns that some of these orders could be like just double booking just because supply is tight everywhere that, that could ease over the course of next year? I assume you have great visibility into the backlog, the $1.6 billion you talk about in terms of timing. But how about the multibillion dollar pipeline? How comfortable are you with that? And also, what I would ask about is that can you clarify what products and maybe services are included in that order number? Is that just AI-optimized service like the XE9680? Or do you include like [CTU] only service in there? Any professional services or even APEX as a service in there?

    偉大的。我也有一個關於人工智慧的問題。很高興看到該業務的良好勢頭。是否有人擔心其中一些訂單可能只是重複預訂,只是因為各地供應緊張,這種情況可能會在明年緩解?我想您對積壓訂單(您所說的時間安排上的 16 億美元)非常了解。但價值數十億美元的管道又如何呢?您對此感覺如何?另外,我想問的是,您能否澄清該訂單編號中包含哪些產品和服務?這只是像XE9680那樣的AI優化服務嗎?或是你們只包含像[CTU]這樣的服務嗎?那裡有專業服務甚至 APEX 服務嗎?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • The last one first. When we talk about our AI backlog and demand, it's not high-performance computing. It's not CPU-based. It's simply the portfolio that is optimized for artificial intelligence, the 9680, the 9640, the 8640, the 760 and the 750. That's it. So it's clear it is that portfolio that we built to be optimized for AI.

    第一個是最後一個。當我們談論人工智慧積壓和需求時,這並不是高效能運算。它不是基於 CPU 的。這只是針對人工智慧進行最佳化的產品組合:9680、9640、8640、760 和 750。僅此而已。很明顯,我們建立的產品組合是為了針對人工智慧而優化的。

  • The double booking. It's a very unusual way that the marketplace is working with the role that NVIDIA plays and helping the -- obviously, the supplier or the -- they're out helping generate demand. I think there's reasonable fidelity in the demand signal that we see today. Is it possible there's double booking? I can't sit here and tell you that there's not. I don't -- from my seat, I don't see it.

    雙重預訂。市場以一種非常不尋常的方式與 NVIDIA 所扮演的角色合作,並幫助(顯然是供應商或他們)幫助創造需求。我認為我們今天看到的需求訊號具有合理的保真度。可以重複預訂嗎?我不能坐在這裡告訴你沒有。我沒有——從我的座位看,我沒有看到它。

  • When we see the opportunity of we are competing with others for the same opportunity, the opportunity is qualified. It's got to be qualified for NVIDIA to give the supply or to suggest the supply will be available. So I think there's a lot of control points in place that suggests there's great fidelity in the demand signal that we're seeing. But I can't sit here and tell you with 100% certainty that there isn't 1 or 2, but I think it's a really good demand signal. And given where our team is and what we see across the globe in enterprise with CSPs, we know where the opportunities are. I hope that helps, Sidney.

    當我們看到我們正在與其他人競爭同樣的機會時,這個機會就合格了。 NVIDIA 必須有資格提供供應或表明供應可用。因此,我認為有很多控制點表明我們看到的需求訊號具有很高的保真度。但我不能坐在這裡百分之百肯定地告訴你不存在 1 或 2,但我認為這是一個非常好的需求訊號。考慮到我們團隊的位置以及我們在全球範圍內看到的 CSP 企業情況,我們知道機會在哪裡。我希望這有幫助,西德尼。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • Thanks, Sidney. Next question.

    謝謝,西德尼。下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Krish Sankar with TD Cowen.

    我們將回答 Krish Sankar 和 TD Cowen 提出的下一個問題。

  • Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I just had one for you. I'm kind of curious. You spoke about AI PC. What is your definition of an AI PC? And also, how much do you expect the ASP uplift to be for an AI PC? And how much incremental growth could it drive from the current 250 million unit run that you're going through?

    我剛剛幫你準備了一份。我有點好奇。你談到了人工智慧電腦。您對 AI PC 的定義是什麼?另外,您預計 AI PC 的平均售價會提升多少?從目前您正在經歷的 2.5 億台運行來看,它可以帶來多少增量成長?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Our definition of an AI PC is going to be a PC that has the performance capability to run the workload on the PC. Not a cloud service. The capability of running an AI workload in an app that has been AI-optimized and to be able to run it locally. The architectures that are coming all meet that criteria. There's variations in performance, but they're all meeting the threshold that we believe is required to call them PCs that they'll be AI enabled and AI PCs, if that's a name. And I think we're quite comfortable with that definition.

    我們對 AI PC 的定義是具有運行 PC 上工作負載的效能能力的 PC。不是雲端服務。在經過 AI 優化的應用程式中運行 AI 工作負載並且能夠在本地運行的能力。即將推出的架構都符合該標準。性能存在差異,但它們都達到了我們認為將它們稱為啟用人工智慧的 PC 和人工智慧 PC(如果這是一個名稱)所需的閾值。我認為我們對這個定義非常滿意。

  • Whether it drives tremendous growth to the TAM is to be seen. What I believe is you don't want to be a PC user that doesn't have an AI-enabled chip in it. You're going to be next to people that have one, and yours doesn't, and it will perform differently. It won't be able to take advantage of some of the new exciting workloads, whether that's new forms of search, new forms of security, new forms of interacting with your PC itself, the ability to put some form of assistant around you.

    它是否會推動 TAM 的巨大增長還有待觀察。我相信你不想成為沒有人工智慧晶片的個人電腦用戶。你旁邊的人會擁有一個,而你的卻沒有,而且它的表現會有所不同。它將無法利用一些新的令人興奮的工作負載,無論是新的搜尋形式、新的安全形式、與電腦本身互動的新形式,或是在你身邊放置某種形式的助手的能力。

  • Those are going to be huge productivity uplifts, and I think it's going to drive a refresh cycle. And again, the scale of this business is so large with 1.5 billion-plus units in the installed base, 950 million units sold over the last 3 years. This is a catalyst to increase the -- or reduce the refresh cycle or increase the refresh rate, whatever you prefer. And I think that's an exciting time. But I can't call what that number is. Our estimate for the marketplace is low single-digit growth. I think I mentioned 3% to 4%. That would take the market from roughly 250 to 260 next year. Let's get there. Let's get it growing again after 8 quarters of decline.

    這些將極大地提高生產力,我認為這將推動更新周期。再說一次,這項業務的規模如此之大,安裝基數超過 15 億台,過去 3 年售出 9.5 億台。這是增加刷新周期或提高刷新率的催化劑,無論您喜歡什麼。我認為這是一個令人興奮的時刻。但我無法撥打那個號碼。我們對市場的估計是低個位數成長。我想我提到了3%到4%。這將使明年的市場數量從約 250 家增加到 260 家。讓我們到那裡。在經歷了 8 個季度的下滑之後,讓我們讓它再次成長。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • Well said. Next question.

    說得好。下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.

    我們將接受富國銀行 Aaron Rakers 提出的下一個問題。

  • Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

    Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

  • There's been a lot of questions already answered. But Jeff, I just want to ask you simplistically on the AI narrative. You mentioned 39 weeks of delivery time or lead times. Are you at all surprised that that's not starting to change? Have you seen any indications that lead times have pulled back with some of the China restrictions put in place? And I guess that with that context also, would you expect diversity, i.e., another large GPU supplier to be a factor in unlocking and converting some of that pipeline as we move into next year?

    很多問題已經得到解答。但是傑夫,我只是想簡單地問你關於人工智慧的敘述。您提到了 39 週的交貨時間或交貨時間。您對這種情況沒有開始改變感到驚訝嗎?您是否看到任何跡象表明,隨著中國實施的一些限制措施,交貨時間有所縮短?我想在這種背景下,您是否會期望多樣性(即另一家大型 GPU 供應商)成為我們進入明年時解鎖和轉換部分管道的一個因素?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • A couple of things. The pipeline is NVIDIA pipeline today. It's not alternative pipeline. It's NVIDIA pipeline. And I wish I could tell you, Aaron, that the backlog was less than -- or excuse me, the lead time was less than 39 weeks. I can't today. We are on the phone, working every available channel opportunity, as you might imagine, with our supply chain capabilities, to improve supply, to improve supply availability. We've offered our services. We'll help where we can. I'm hopeful for the day to tell you that supply has improved greatly, lead times have reduced, and we can work the backlog down faster. That's our job. I don't have those answers today. It's 39 weeks. We're trying to continue to get more supply. That's where we are.

    有幾件事。今天的管道是 NVIDIA 管道。它不是替代管道。這是 NVIDIA 管道。我希望我能告訴你,Aaron,積壓的訂單少於——或者對不起,交貨時間少於 39 週。我今天不能。正如您可能想像的那樣,我們透過電話,利用我們的供應鏈能力,利用每一個可用的通路機會來改善供應,提高供應可用性。我們已經提供了我們的服務。我們會盡力提供協助。我希望這一天能告訴您,供應已大大改善,交貨時間已縮短,我們可以更快地減少積壓。這就是我們的工作。今天我沒有這些答案。已經39週了。我們正在努力繼續獲得更多供應。這就是我們現在的處境。

  • As we look forward into calendar year '24, there's clearly alternatives coming. There's work to be done in those alternatives. Software stacks have to be taken care of, resolved, the opportunities around them. But there's more options coming. Their adoption rate, we'll see. But right now, that multibillion-dollar pipeline that I referenced, the backlog that we've talked about is NVIDIA-based 39-week lead time. We're working our behinds off every day to get more supply.

    當我們展望 24 日曆年時,顯然會有替代方案出現。這些替代方案還有很多工作要做。軟體堆疊必須得到照顧、解決,以及它們周圍的機會。但還有更多選擇。他們的採用率,我們拭目以待。但現在,我提到的數十億美元的管道,我們所討論的積壓工作是基於 NVIDIA 的 39 週交付時間。我們每天都在竭盡全力以獲得更多供應。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • Next question.

    下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

    我們將回答摩根大通 Samik Chatterjee 提出的下一個問題。

  • Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

    Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

  • I guess sticking on the AI subject, you shipped over $0.5 billion of AI-optimized servers in the quarter. Just curious, with lead times holding where they are, how should we think about the trajectory of sort of what we expect for shipments in the coming quarter? Is it fairly stable in that sort of $0.5 billion range? Or should we expect some level of sort of ramp up if -- with supply easing?

    我想,繼續關注人工智慧主題,本季人工智慧優化伺服器的出貨量超過 5 億美元。只是好奇,在交貨時間保持不變的情況下,我們應該如何考慮我們對下一季出貨量的預期軌跡?在 5 億美元的範圍內是否相當穩定?或者,如果供應放鬆,我們是否應該預期某種程度的成長?

  • And then just a quick clarification, Jeff. You've mentioned a few times now the improvement you're seeing in traditional servers. Even as you sort of called out that customers are pulling back spending in most recent months, you've seen some signs of that. Just curious, what's the driver there? Like why -- what's your insight in terms of as customers are pulling back? Why is there sort of this green shoot in traditional servers that runs a bit counter to that overall theme?

    然後快速澄清一下,傑夫。您已經多次提到您在傳統伺服器中看到的改進。儘管您聲稱客戶最近幾個月正在縮減支出,但您已經看到了一些跡象。很好奇,司機是啥?例如為什麼—您對客戶退縮有何看法?為什麼傳統伺服器中出現了與整體主題有點背道而馳的萌芽?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Well, we don't forecast shipments in terms of specific dollars by product line for the next quarter. Our shipments are -- for AI are implied in the guidance that Yvonne gave. I really don't want to break it down into a specific of how many that will ship of AI servers. But 39-week lead time, 9 months. Can kind of look at the math and go, maybe that's probably the right sort of ZIP code to be in. But we're hand in mouth for the parts.

    嗯,我們不會預測下一季將按產品線劃分的具體出貨量。我們的出貨量是--因為人工智慧是在伊馮給出的指導中暗示的。我真的不想將其分解為具體的人工智慧伺服器數量。但交貨期為 39 週,即 9 個月。可以看一下數學,也許這可能是正確的郵政編碼。但我們正在密切關注零。

  • Traditional servers and why we think there's a green shoot. I think it's the comments around -- it's been an 8-quarter digestion period, the longest that I can recollect in the server business. Data centers have aged product in. They worked through what they have bought in the early -- the first half of the COVID era. They now need to add capacity, and we're seeing that in different areas.

    傳統伺服器以及為什麼我們認為存在萌芽。我認為這是周圍的評論 - 這是一個 8 個季度的消化期,這是我在伺服器業務中記得的最長的一段時間。資料中心已經使用了老化的產品。他們對在早期(新冠疫情時代的前半段)購買的產品進行了研究。他們現在需要增加容量,我們在不同領域都看到了這一點。

  • And to the point now, again, to be slightly repetitive, 2 quarters in a row of sequential growth, a building pipeline, which hasn't happened this year. Improved -- increased activity, improved conversion makes us still comfortable that something's changed. Again, I'm not using that word recovery, but something's changed. It's an inflection point that Yvonne mentioned earlier, and we're going to continue to obviously feed that inflection and continue to look at the opportunity.

    現在,再次稍微重複一下,連續兩個季度連續成長,正在建造管道,但今年還沒有發生。改進-活動增加、轉換率提高,讓我們對某些事情的改變仍然感到滿意。再說一次,我沒有使用「恢復」這個詞,但有些事情發生了變化。這是伊馮之前提到的一個拐點,我們將繼續明顯地滿足這一拐點並繼續尋找機會。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • All right. Let's see if we can get one last question in.

    好的。讓我們看看能否提出最後一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll now take our final question from David Vogt with UBS.

    現在我們將回答瑞銀集團的大衛‧沃格特提出的最後一個問題。

  • David Vogt - Analyst

    David Vogt - Analyst

  • Can you -- Jeff, can you talk to sort of the thought process if AI lead times come in a little bit more next year, what that means for your networking fabric or equipment business, and then ultimately, the pull forward, maybe the pull-through of storage? I might have missed it earlier, but I just wanted to get a sense for how that would sort of impact the rest of the ISG business.

    Jeff,如果明年人工智慧交付時間稍微延長一點,您能否談談思考過程,這對您的網路結構或設備業務意味著什麼,然後最終,向前推動,也許是推動-通過儲存?我之前可能錯過了,但我只是想了解這將如何影響 ISG 的其他業務。

  • And then just quickly on CSG. Can you kind of share with us your thoughts, maybe, Yvonne, on sort of the margin impact from higher component costs, whether it's DRAM, NAND or however you're thinking about it?

    然後很快就到了CSG。 Yvonne,您能否與我們分享您對組件成本上升對利潤率影響的看法,無論是 DRAM、NAND 還是您的想法?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - COO & Vice Chairman

  • Well, clearly, as GPU supply improves, the fabric that is associated with those units will be shipped and aligned to that. So the ability for us in our networking business will benefit from an uplift or an increase in supply. And I think that's encouraging. And as I talked about, storage attach is important. We are certainly working with our sales teams, working with -- to find the opportunities as this data is being created in increasingly greater rates outside of the data center to make sure that we're there and it's landing on Dell storage, and as it lands on Dell storage, making sure that as AI follows the data, that our AI-optimized portfolio is next to it.

    顯然,隨著 GPU 供應的改善,與這些單元相關的結構將被運輸並與之保持一致。因此,我們網路業務的能力將受益於供應的提升或增加。我覺得這令人鼓舞。正如我所說,儲存連接很重要。我們當然正在與我們的銷售團隊合作,尋找機會,因為這些數據在數據中心之外以越來越高的速度創建,以確保我們在那裡並將其登陸到戴爾存儲上,並且因為它登陸戴爾存儲,確保人工智慧跟隨數據,我們的人工智慧優化產品組合緊隨其後。

  • I mean that's the sales motion, a set of professional services around that, a set of services that attach around that. So think of every opportunity of a model training, fine-tuning ultimately, as we get to inference is an opportunity for compute assets, which drags a set of storage assets around that, and it's got to be connected. We kind of look at that as the AI estate, if you will, and that's the opportunity. It's real, and our teams are focused on it.

    我的意思是,這就是銷售動議,圍繞著它的一系列專業服務,圍繞著它的一系列附加服務。因此,請考慮模型訓練的每一個機會,最終進行微調,因為我們推斷這是計算資產的機會,它會圍繞它拖動一組儲存資產,並且必須將其連接起來。如果你願意的話,我們可以將其視為人工智慧產業,這就是機會。這是真實的,我們的團隊正在專注於此。

  • Yvonne McGill - CFO

    Yvonne McGill - CFO

  • And then on your question around component costs and the potential pressure we put on margin rates, we do run a low inventory model. And so when we have component cost increases, we try to recover them as quickly as we can by raising prices and passing those through into the market. So you'll see us continue with that. It's certainly not the first time that we've had this happen. And so it's an engine that's well tuned within Dell. But we'll have to navigate through that with the competitive environment, and we will. But it usually takes a period of time to recapture that impact of the [question].

    然後,關於您關於組件成本以及我們對利潤率施加的潛在壓力的問題,我們確實運行了低庫存模型。因此,當我們的零件成本增加時,我們會嘗試透過提高價格並將其傳遞到市場來盡快恢復成本。所以你會看到我們繼續這樣做。這當然不是我們第一次遇到這種情況。因此,這是戴爾內部精心調校的引擎。但我們必須在競爭環境中渡過難關,我們會的。但通常需要一段時間才能重新獲得[問題]的影響。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • All right. Thanks, everyone, for joining us. Yes. Thanks, David. We'll see many of you next week at Raymond James and Barclays and also the first week in January at the Consumer Electronics Show. Thank you. Have a good evening.

    好的。謝謝大家加入我們。是的。謝謝,大衛。下週我們將在雷蒙德詹姆斯 (Raymond James) 和巴克萊銀行 (Barclays) 以及 1 月第一週的消費電子展 (Consumer Electronics Show) 上見到大家。謝謝。祝你晚上愉快。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect at this time.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開連線。