戴爾 (DELL) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the fiscal year 2023 fourth quarter and year-end financial results conference call for Dell Technologies Inc. I'd like to inform all participants, this call is being recorded at the request of Dell Technologies. This broadcast is the copyrighted property of Dell Technologies Inc. Any rebroadcast of this information in whole or part without the prior written permission of Dell Technologies is prohibited. (Operator Instructions)

下午好，歡迎參加戴爾科技公司 2023 財年第四季度和年終財務業績電話會議。我想通知所有與會者，本次電話會議是應戴爾科技公司的要求進行錄音的。此廣播是 Dell Technologies Inc. 的版權財產。未經 Dell Technologies 事先書面許可，禁止全部或部分轉播此信息。 （操作員說明）

I'd like to turn the call over to Rob Williams, Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Williams, you may begin.

我想把電話轉給投資者關係主管 Rob Williams。威廉姆斯先生，您可以開始了。

Thanks for joining us. With me today are Jeff Clarke, Chuck Whitten, Tom Sweet and Tyler Johnson. Our earnings materials are available on our IR website, and I encourage you to review our materials and presentation, which includes additional content to complement our discussion this afternoon. Guidance will be covered on today's call.

感謝您加入我們。今天和我在一起的有傑夫·克拉克、查克·惠頓、湯姆·斯威特和泰勒·約翰遜。我們的收益材料可在我們的 IR 網站上找到，我鼓勵您查看我們的材料和演示文稿，其中包括補充我們今天下午討論的額外內容。今天的電話會議將涵蓋指導。

During this call, unless otherwise indicated, all references to financial measures refer to non-GAAP financial measures, including non-GAAP revenue, gross margin, operating expenses, operating income, net income and diluted earnings per share. A reconciliation of these measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in our web deck and our press release. Growth percentages refer to year-over-year change unless otherwise specified.

在本次電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則所有提及的財務指標均指非 GAAP 財務指標，包括非 GAAP 收入、毛利率、運營支出、運營收入、淨收入和稀釋後每股收益。在我們的網絡平台和新聞稿中可以找到這些措施與其最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的對賬。除非另有說明，否則增長百分比指的是同比變化。

Statements made during this call that relate to future events and results are forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results and events could differ materially from those projected due to a number of risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our web deck and our SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

本次電話會議中與未來事件和結果相關的聲明是基於當前預期的前瞻性聲明。由於存在許多風險和不確定性，實際結果和事件可能與預測的結果和事件存在重大差異，這些風險和不確定性在我們的網絡面板和我們的 SEC 文件中進行了討論。我們沒有義務更新我們的前瞻性陳述。

Now I'll turn it over to Chuck.

現在我會把它交給查克。

Thanks, Rob. We are pleased with our FY '23 execution and financial results given the macroeconomic backdrop. FY '23 was ultimately a tale of 2 halves with 12% growth in the first half and revenue down 9% in the second half as the demand environment weakened over the course of the year. Net, we delivered record FY '23 revenue of $102.3 billion, up 1% on the back of 17% growth in FY '22, record OpInc of $8.6 billion, up 11% and record EPS of $7.61, up 22%. ISG, in particular, had a strong year with record revenue of $38.4 billion, including record revenue in both servers and networking and storage and record operating income of over $5 billion.

謝謝，羅布。鑑於宏觀經濟背景，我們對 23 財年的執行和財務業績感到滿意。 23 財年最終是一個兩半的故事，上半年增長 12%，下半年收入下降 9%，因為全年需求環境減弱。淨值，我們在 23 財年實現了創紀錄的 1023 億美元收入，在 22 財年增長 17% 的基礎上增長了 1%，創紀錄的 OpInc 達到 86 億美元，增長 11%，每股收益達到創紀錄的 7.61 美元，增長 22%。特別是 ISG，今年表現強勁，收入創紀錄地達到 384 億美元，其中包括創紀錄的服務器、網絡和存儲收入，以及超過 50 億美元的創紀錄營業收入。

Importantly, we are structural share gainers and continue to outperform the industry. We expect to gain over a point of share in mainstream server and storage revenue when the IDC calendar results come out later this month. In servers, we remain #1 in the market and have gained 9 points of mainstream server revenue share over the last 10 years. In storage, we are far and away the industry leader, bigger than #2, 3 and 4 players combined and have gained 4 points of share in the key midrange portion of the market over the last 5 years. And in PCs, we gained over 140 basis points of commercial PC unit share in calendar '22, our 10th consecutive year of share gains.

重要的是，我們是結構性股票贏家，並繼續跑贏行業。當本月晚些時候 IDC 日曆結果公佈時，我們預計將在主流服務器和存儲收入中獲得超過一個份額。在服務器方面，我們在市場上保持第一，並且在過去 10 年中獲得了主流服務器收入份額的 9 個百分點。在存儲領域，我們遙遙領先於行業領導者，比排名第二、第三和第四位的玩家加起來還要多，並且在過去 5 年中在市場的關鍵中端部分獲得了 4 個百分點的份額。在 PC 領域，我們在日曆 '22 中獲得了超過 140 個基點的商用 PC 單位份額，這是我們連續第 10 年的份額增長。

Focusing on Q4, we again proved our ability to deliver against our commitments and execute no matter the market environment. We delivered Q4 revenue of $25 billion, down 11% with operating income of $2.2 billion and diluted EPS of $1.80 driven by strong ISG performance and disciplined cost management.

專注於第四季度，我們再次證明了無論市場環境如何，我們都有能力兌現我們的承諾並執行。在強勁的 ISG 業績和嚴格的成本管理的推動下，我們第四季度的收入為 250 億美元，下降 11%，營業收入為 22 億美元，攤薄後每股收益為 1.80 美元。

ISG revenue was $9.9 billion, up 7% with record profitability. ISG has now grown 8 consecutive quarters, and our end-to-end business model has proven to be a demonstrable competitive advantage in this changing environment. We've enhanced our relevancy with customers as spending priorities shifted from CSG to ISG over the course of the year, and we positioned our business to capture growth where it materialized in the IT market.

ISG 收入為 99 億美元，增長 7%，盈利能力創歷史新高。 ISG 現已連續 8 個季度實現增長，事實證明，我們的端到端業務模式在這個不斷變化的環境中具有明顯的競爭優勢。隨著這一年的支出重點從 CSG 轉移到 ISG，我們增強了與客戶的相關性，並且我們將我們的業務定位為在 IT 市場中實現增長。

Specifically in ISG, we delivered record storage revenue of $5 billion, up 10%, including demand growth in PowerFlex, VxRail, Data Protection and PowerStore. We are pleased with our momentum in storage. The investments we made over the years strengthening our portfolio are paying off and have allowed us to drive growth and share gain in what was a resilient storage market in 2022. We grew servers and networking 5% in a challenging server demand environment by optimizing server shipments, along with strong attach and growing ASPs, a clear indication that we continue to sell deeper into customers' digital agendas.

特別是在 ISG 方面，我們實現了創紀錄的 50 億美元存儲收入，增長 10%，其中包括 PowerFlex、VxRail、Data Protection 和 PowerStore 的需求增長。我們對存儲方面的勢頭感到滿意。我們多年來為加強我們的產品組合所做的投資正在取得回報，並使我們能夠在 2022 年的彈性存儲市場中推動增長和份額增長。我們通過優化服務器出貨量，在充滿挑戰的服務器需求環境中將服務器和網絡增長了 5% ，以及強大的附加值和不斷增長的 ASP，這清楚地表明我們將繼續更深入地銷售客戶的數字議程。

Turning to CSG. The PC market remains challenged. From a historic 2021, the PC market slowed markedly in June and experienced a sharp decline in calendar Q4. Consequently, our fiscal Q4 CSG revenue declined 23% to $13.4 billion. It was a continuation of trends we've seen in recent quarters. Commercial revenue fared better than consumer, down 17% as customers delayed PC purchases in the face of macroeconomic and hiring uncertainty. Consumer was down 40%.

轉向南玻。個人電腦市場仍然充滿挑戰。從具有歷史意義的 2021 年開始，PC 市場在 6 月份明顯放緩，並在日曆上的第四季度經歷了大幅下滑。因此，我們第四財季的 CSG 收入下降了 23% 至 134 億美元。這是我們在最近幾個季度看到的趨勢的延續。商業收入表現好於消費者，下降了 17%，原因是客戶在面對宏觀經濟和招聘不確定性的情況下推遲了 PC 購買。消費下降了 40%。

Given the decline in revenue, CSG operating income was $671 million or 5% of revenue, primarily driven by descaling with revenue decreasing faster than OpEx. We are seeing increasing competitive pressure and elevated industry channel inventories, but we continue to maintain pricing discipline, execute our direct attach motion and focus on our relative performance in the most profitable segments of the PC market.

考慮到收入下降，CSG 營業收入為 6.71 億美元，佔收入的 5%，這主要是受除垢的推動，收入下降速度快於 OpEx。我們看到競爭壓力越來越大，行業渠道庫存增加，但我們繼續保持定價紀律，執行我們的直接附加行動，並專注於我們在 PC 市場最賺錢部分的相對錶現。

In this challenged and uncertain environment, we've stuck to a playbook that has served us well across multiple cycles, staying customer-focused, driving differentiated relative performance, delivering against our innovation agenda, managing our cost position, maintaining pricing discipline and sustaining our unique and winning culture. In short, we have focused on what we can control.

在這個充滿挑戰和不確定的環境中，我們一直堅持在多個週期中為我們提供良好服務的劇本，保持以客戶為中心，推動差異化的相對績效，根據我們的創新議程交付，管理我們的成本狀況，維持定價紀律並維持我們的獨特而成功的文化。簡而言之，我們專注於我們可以控制的事情。

And in Q4, we continued to take decisive action, extending our existing cost controls, pausing external hiring, limiting travel and reducing outside services spend. We reduced our operating expenses, excluding compensation and benefits, by 5% versus last year, normalized for the extra week in the quarter. We also made the difficult decision to reduce our workforce by an additional 5% as announced in February. We will continue to stay disciplined in our expense management as we navigate the current IT spending environment.

在第四季度，我們繼續採取果斷行動，擴大現有的成本控制，暫停外部招聘，限制差旅並減少外部服務支出。我們將運營費用（不包括薪酬和福利）與去年相比減少了 5%，並在本季度的額外一周內實現了正常化。我們還做出了艱難的決定，如 2 月份宣布的那樣，將我們的員工隊伍再裁員 5%。在應對當前的 IT 支出環境時，我們將繼續在費用管理方面保持紀律。

In Q4, we also advanced our innovation agenda. We launched our next generation of PowerEdge servers with significantly enhanced AI and machine learning capabilities and improved energy and cost efficiency for data center, cloud and edge environments, including new purpose-built XR servers for telecom, Open RAN and mobile edge use cases.

在第四季度，我們還推進了創新議程。我們推出了下一代 PowerEdge 服務器，顯著增強了人工智能和機器學習能力，並提高了數據中心、雲和邊緣環境的能源和成本效率，包括用於電信、Open RAN 和移動邊緣用例的新型專用 XR 服務器。

At Mobile World Congress this week, we announced new solutions and partnerships that will enable the telecommunications industry to accelerate the adoption of open network architecture, including Dell Telecom Infrastructure Blocks for Red Hat, an integrated solution specifically engineered, validated and supported by Dell to help network operators run their telecom workloads more efficiently.

在本週的世界移動大會上，我們宣布了新的解決方案和合作夥伴關係，這將使電信行業能夠加速採用開放式網絡架構，包括面向 Red Hat 的 Dell Telecom Infrastructure Blocks，這是一個由 Dell 專門設計、驗證和支持的集成解決方案，以幫助網絡運營商更高效地運行其電信工作負載。

And we continue to lead in defining the next era of hybrid work solutions. At CES, we made announcements in a number of areas, including high-margin peripherals that improve the employee experience like our premier collaboration keyboard with dedicated touch controls to easily manage Zoom calls and a series of new monitors, including a 32-inch ultrasharp display with 6K resolution. We're proud of the substantial innovation that we've driven in all of our businesses in FY '23, and we have more exciting announcements coming in May at Dell Technologies World.

我們將繼續引領定義混合工作解決方案的下一個時代。在 CES 上，我們發布了多個領域的公告，包括可改善員工體驗的高利潤外圍設備，例如我們的首屈一指的帶有專用觸摸控制的協作鍵盤，可輕鬆管理 Zoom 呼叫和一系列新顯示器，包括 32 英寸超清晰顯示器6K分辨率。我們為 23 財年在所有業務中推動的重大創新感到自豪，我們將在 5 月的戴爾技術世界大會上發布更多激動人心的公告。

Let me conclude by offering some brief observations on the demand environment. The broad caution in the IT spending environment that we started calling out in Q2 persists as customers continue to scrutinize every dollar in the current macro environment.

最後，讓我對需求環境進行一些簡要的觀察。隨著客戶繼續審查當前宏觀環境中的每一美元，我們在第二季度開始呼籲的 IT 支出環境中的廣泛謹慎仍然存在。

Exiting FY '23, we saw select growth in verticals like financial services, transportation and construction and real estate. However, we've continued to see demand softness across most other verticals, customer types and regions. Underlying demand in PCs and servers remains weak, and we are seeing signs of changing customer behavior in storage. Though Q4 was a very good storage demand quarter, we saw lengthening sales cycles and more cautious storage spending with strength in very large customers, offset by declines in medium and small business. Given that backdrop, we expect at least the early part of FY '24 to remain challenging.

在 23 財年結束後，我們看到了金融服務、運輸和建築以及房地產等垂直領域的選擇性增長。然而，我們繼續看到大多數其他垂直行業、客戶類型和地區的需求疲軟。個人電腦和服務器的基本需求仍然疲軟，我們看到客戶在存儲方面的行為發生變化的跡象。儘管第 4 季度是一個非常好的存儲需求季度，但我們看到銷售週期延長，存儲支出更加謹慎，大客戶的實力強勁，被中小型企業的下滑所抵消。鑑於這種背景，我們預計至少 24 財年的早期階段仍將充滿挑戰。

That said, our fundamental belief in both the long-term health of our markets and the advantage of our business model haven't changed. Data continues to increase exponentially in both quantity and value, and customers continue to see us as trusted partners, helping them navigate the complexities of hybrid work, multicloud and the edge.

也就是說，我們對市場長期健康發展和我們商業模式優勢的基本信念沒有改變。數據在數量和價值上繼續呈指數增長，客戶繼續將我們視為值得信賴的合作夥伴，幫助他們駕馭混合工作、多雲和邊緣的複雜性。

Unlike in prior cycles, customers are not outright stopping digital investments. They continue to plan projects even as they scrutinize spend. This gives us confidence that we will see a rebound in spending and a return to sequential growth later this year. We're industry leaders in our categories, we're central to the technology agendas of our customers, and we have a track record of meeting our commitments and improving our strategic position no matter the environment.

與之前的周期不同，客戶並沒有完全停止數字投資。他們在審查支出的同時繼續計劃項目。這使我們有信心在今年晚些時候看到支出反彈並恢復連續增長。我們是所屬類別的行業領導者，我們是客戶技術議程的核心，並且無論環境如何，我們都有履行承諾和改善戰略地位的記錄。

We plan to stick to the playbook that served us well in FY '23 and prior cycles. Control what we can control, stay disciplined and agile, invest for the long term and meet our commitments to customers, team members and other stakeholders. We've positioned the business to navigate the current uncertainty and for the inevitable rebound.

我們計劃堅持在 23 財年和之前的周期中為我們提供良好服務的劇本。控制我們能控制的，保持紀律和敏捷，長期投資並履行我們對客戶、團隊成員和其他利益相關者的承諾。我們已將業務定位為應對當前的不確定性和不可避免的反彈。

Now over to Tom for the detailed financials and guidance.

現在請湯姆提供詳細的財務信息和指導。

Thanks, Chuck. We're pleased with the full year and Q4 P&L performances given the macro environment. As Chuck highlighted, we set new records this year and have continued to build on our industry-leading positions.

謝謝，查克。鑑於宏觀環境，我們對全年和第四季度的損益表現感到滿意。正如查克強調的那樣，我們今年創造了新記錄，並繼續鞏固我們的行業領先地位。

Turning to our Q4 results, which, as a reminder, included a 14th week. We delivered revenue of $25 billion, down 11% with strong ISG performance, particularly in storage. Currency remained a headwind and impacted revenue by approximately 410 basis points. Gross margin was $6 billion, up 3% and 23.8% of revenue. Gross margin rate was up 3 points due to a mix shift to ISG, component and logistics cost deflation and pricing discipline.

轉向我們的第四季度結果，作為提醒，其中包括第 14 週。我們實現了 250 億美元的收入，下降了 11%，ISG 表現強勁，尤其是在存儲方面。貨幣仍然是一個不利因素，對收入的影響約為 410 個基點。毛利率為 60 億美元，分別增長 3% 和收入的 23.8%。毛利率上升了 3 個百分點，原因是向 ISG 的混合轉變、零部件和物流成本下降以及定價紀律。

The pricing environment in ISG was generally consistent with what we have seen in recent quarters, while in CSG, we saw areas of pressure, particularly in consumer and in some commercial markets where, in some cases, our competitors were working to reduce their channel inventory. We continue to be disciplined in our pricing execution and within CSG, driving our direct model with a focus on attaching services, software, peripherals and financing.

ISG 的定價環境與我們在最近幾個季度看到的基本一致，而在 CSG，我們看到了壓力領域，特別是在消費者和一些商業市場，在某些情況下，我們的競爭對手正在努力減少他們的渠道庫存.我們繼續在我們的定價執行和 CSG 內部遵守紀律，推動我們的直接模式，重點是附加服務、軟件、外圍設備和融資。

Operating expense was $3.8 billion, up 5%, driven by an extra week in our quarter and 15.1% of revenue. In Q4, we recorded a $281 million charge to our GAAP operating expense for our previously announced workforce reduction. Operating income was $2.2 billion, down 1% and 8.7% of revenue with the extra week of operating expenses roughly offsetting an extra week of gross margin.

營業費用為 38 億美元，增長 5%，這是由於本季度多了一周，佔收入的 15.1%。在第四季度，我們為之前宣布的裁員記錄了 2.81 億美元的 GAAP 運營費用。營業收入為 22 億美元，分別下降 1% 和 8.7% 的收入，額外一周的營業費用大致抵消了額外一周的毛利率。

Our quarterly tax rate was 26% and 20% for the full year. Q4 net income was $1.3 billion, down 5%, primarily driven by slightly higher interest expense, including a 14th week in the quarter and a slight decrease in operating income.

我們的季度稅率為 26%，全年稅率為 20%。第四季度淨收入為 13 億美元，下降 5%，主要是由於利息支出略有增加，包括本季度第 14 周和營業收入略有下降。

Fully diluted earnings per share was $1.80, up 5% due to a lower share count. Our recurring revenue is approximately $5.6 billion a quarter, up 12%, and our remaining performance obligations, or RPO, is approximately $40 billion, down due to a reduction in backlog, partially offset by an increase in deferred revenue. Deferred revenue was up primarily due to an increase in service and software maintenance agreements.

由於股票數量減少，完全攤薄後每股收益為 1.80 美元，增長 5%。我們每季度的經常性收入約為 56 億美元，增長 12%，而我們的剩餘履約義務 (RPO) 約為 400 億美元，這是由於積壓訂單的減少，部分被遞延收入的增加所抵消。遞延收入增加主要是由於服務和軟件維護協議的增加。

Now turning to our business units. In ISG, we delivered our eighth consecutive quarter of growth. Revenue was $9.9 billion, up 7%, driven by strong storage and server and networking performance. Storage revenue was a record $5 billion, up 10%, and servers and networking revenue was $4.9 billion, up 5%.

現在轉向我們的業務部門。在 ISG，我們實現了連續第八個季度的增長。收入為 99 億美元，增長 7%，這得益於強勁的存儲、服務器和網絡性能。存儲收入達到創紀錄的 50 億美元，增長 10%，服務器和網絡收入達到 49 億美元，增長 5%。

ISG operating income came in at a record $1.5 billion or 15.6% of revenue, up 360 basis points as we benefited from cost favorability, pricing discipline and revenue growth, including a higher mix of storage software.

ISG 營業收入達到創紀錄的 15 億美元，佔收入的 15.6%，增長 360 個基點，因為我們受益於成本優惠、定價紀律和收入增長，包括更高的存儲軟件組合。

Our Client Solutions Group revenue was down 23% to $13.4 billion primarily due to continued softness in both the commercial and consumer PC markets. Commercial revenue was $10.7 billion, down 17%, and consumer revenue was $2.7 billion, down 40%, though average selling prices continued to trend higher in both businesses. CSG operating income was $700 million and 5% of revenue.

我們的客戶解決方案部門收入下降 23% 至 134 億美元，這主要是由於商用和消費 PC 市場持續疲軟。商業收入為 107 億美元，下降 17%，消費者收入為 27 億美元，下降 40%，儘管這兩項業務的平均售價繼續呈上升趨勢。 CSG 營業收入為 7 億美元，佔收入的 5%。

As we have historically seen when the macro environment has slowed, customers' interest in consumption and financing models that provide both payment flexibility and predictability has increased. Our Q4 Dell Financial Services originations were $3 billion, up 12%, with strength across all geographies. DFS ending managed assets reached $14.7 billion, up 9%, while credit losses remained at historically low levels, given the strength of our portfolio, which is over 60% investment grade. And we more than doubled the number of active APEX customers that have subscribed to our as-a-Service solutions over the course of the year.

正如我們在歷史上看到的那樣，當宏觀環境放緩時，客戶對提供支付靈活性和可預測性的消費和融資模式的興趣有所增加。我們第 4 季度的戴爾金融服務發起業務為 30 億美元，增長 12%，在所有地區均表現強勁。 DFS 期末管理資產達到 147 億美元，增長 9%，而信貸損失仍處於歷史低位，因為我們的投資組合實力超過 60%。在這一年中，訂閱我們即服務解決方案的活躍 APEX 客戶數量增加了一倍以上。

Turning to our cash flow and balance sheet. Our cash flow from operations was $2.7 billion in Q4 and $3.6 billion for the full year. Our strong Q4 cash flow was driven by profitability partially offset by a use in working capital. Within working capital, inventory was down $1.4 billion sequentially due to disciplined management and strong shipments at the end of the quarter. However, the inventory improvement was offset by a temporary increase in receivables driven by linearity of revenue in the quarter and a decline in payables given reduced inventory purchases and timing of disbursements.

轉向我們的現金流量和資產負債表。我們的運營現金流在第四季度為 27 億美元，全年為 36 億美元。我們強勁的第四季度現金流是由盈利能力驅動的，部分被營運資金的使用所抵消。在營運資金方面，由於紀律嚴明的管理和本季度末的強勁出貨量，庫存環比下降了 14 億美元。然而，存貨改善被本季度收入線性驅動的應收賬款暫時增加以及由於存貨採購減少和支付時間減少而導致的應付賬款減少所抵消。

Our commitment to improving working capital efficiency remains a priority as we continue to focus on unlocking capital within the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $10.2 billion in cash and investments, up $3.7 billion sequentially driven by free cash flow generation and a $2 billion debt issuance, partially offset by $400 million in capital returns.

隨著我們繼續專注於在資產負債表內釋放資本，我們對提高營運資本效率的承諾仍然是一個優先事項。本季度結束時，我們擁有 102 億美元的現金和投資，在產生自由現金流和 20 億美元的債券發行的推動下環比增加 37 億美元，部分被 4 億美元的資本回報所抵消。

Our core debt balance ended the year at $18.1 billion, up due to the debt issuance. We intend to use part of the issuance proceeds to pay down the $1 billion maturity coming due in June and will consider using the remaining proceeds to prepay other debt in the capital structure over time.

由於發債，我們的核心債務餘額在年底達到 181 億美元。我們打算使用部分發行收益來償還 6 月到期的 10 億美元，並將考慮使用剩餘收益來提前償還資本結構中的其他債務。

Turning to capital allocation. We will continue our balanced approach, repurchasing shares programmatically to manage dilution while maintaining the flexibility to be opportunistic. In Q4, we repurchased 3.7 million shares of stock for $150 million and paid $236 million in dividends. And for the full year, we repurchased 62.4 million shares for $2.8 billion and paid approximately $1 billion in dividends.

轉向資本配置。我們將繼續我們的平衡方法，以編程方式回購股票以管理稀釋，同時保持機會主義的靈活性。在第四季度，我們以 1.5 億美元的價格回購了 370 萬股股票，並支付了 2.36 億美元的股息。全年，我們以 28 億美元的價格回購了 6240 萬股股票，並支付了約 10 億美元的股息。

As we highlighted in our press release earlier today and as part of our commitment to capital returns, we are raising our annual dividend from $1.32 to $1.48 per share, an increase of 12%, reflecting our confidence in our long-term business model and our ability to generate and grow cash flow over time.

正如我們在今天早些時候的新聞稿中強調的那樣，作為我們對資本回報承諾的一部分，我們將年度股息從每股 1.32 美元提高到 1.48 美元，增幅為 12%，反映了我們對我們的長期業務模式和我們的信心隨著時間的推移產生和增加現金流的能力。

Turning to guidance. Given the demand trends we saw last quarter, we expect Q1 revenue to be seasonally lower than average, down sequentially between 17% and 21%, 19% at the midpoint. Currency continues to be a headwind, and we are expecting a roughly 300 basis point impact to Q1 revenue. We expect the ISG business to be down sequentially in the mid-20s as we come off a seasonally strong storage quarter to Q1, which is typically a seasonally weaker storage quarter, and we expect CSG revenue down sequentially in the mid-teens. We will remain disciplined in our pricing and expect gross margin rates to be relatively flat sequentially.

轉向指導。鑑於我們上個季度看到的需求趨勢，我們預計第一季度收入將低於平均水平，環比下降 17% 至 21%，中點下降 19%。匯率仍然是不利因素，我們預計第一季度收入將受到大約 300 個基點的影響。我們預計 ISG 業務將在 20 年代中期連續下降，因為我們從季節性強勁的存儲季度到第一季度，這通常是季節性較弱的存儲季度，我們預計 CSG 收入將在十幾歲中期連續下降。我們將在定價方面保持紀律，並預計毛利率將連續持平。

For our tax rate, you should assume a 24% plus or minus 100 basis points for Q1 and for fiscal year '24. We expect our Q1 diluted share count to be between 737 million and 742 million shares and our diluted EPS to be $0.80, plus or minus $0.15, down sequentially, primarily driven by lower revenue.

對於我們的稅率，您應該假設第一季度和 24 財年的稅率為 24% 正負 100 個基點。我們預計第一季度攤薄後的股票數量將在 7.37 億至 7.42 億股之間，攤薄後每股收益為 0.80 美元，上下浮動 0.15 美元，環比下降，這主要是由於收入下降。

For the full year, we continue to see a wide range of outcomes. We expect revenue to be down between 12% and 18% and down 15% at the midpoint of the range. Given Q1 guidance, this implies a return to sequential growth as we move through the year. We'll continue to be mindful of our pricing discipline and our cost structure, making adjustments as appropriate, depending on the environment while also continuing to invest in innovation.

全年，我們繼續看到廣泛的成果。我們預計收入將下降 12% 至 18%，在該範圍的中點下降 15%。鑑於第一季度的指引，這意味著隨著我們度過這一年，將恢復連續增長。我們將繼續關注我們的定價紀律和成本結構，根據環境進行適當調整，同時繼續投資於創新。

Interest and other will be up approximately $200 million as we fund DFS originations in a higher interest rate environment. Netting this out, we expect diluted earnings per share of $5.30 plus or minus $0.30.

由於我們在更高利率環境中為 DFS 發起提供資金，利息和其他費用將增加約 2 億美元。扣除這一因素後，我們預計每股攤薄收益為 5.30 美元上下浮動 0.30 美元。

In closing, we delivered solid fiscal year '23 financial results. And over the last 3 years, we have now grown our revenue at a 6% CAGR and our EPS at an 18% CAGR. While there is near-term uncertainty, particularly in the first half of fiscal year '24, we have strong conviction in the growth of our TAM over the long term, and we remain committed to delivering our value creation framework with a revenue CAGR of 3% to 4%, a diluted earnings per share CAGR of 6% plus and a net income to adjusted free cash flow conversion of 100% or better over time.

最後，我們交付了穩健的 23 財年財務業績。在過去的 3 年裡，我們現在的收入以 6% 的複合年增長率增長，每股收益以 18% 的複合年增長率增長。雖然短期內存在不確定性，尤其是在 24 財年上半年，但我們對 TAM 的長期增長充滿信心，我們仍然致力於提供收入複合年增長率為 3 的價值創造框架% 至 4%，稀釋後每股收益的複合年增長率為 6% 以上，隨著時間的推移，調整後的自由現金流轉換為 100% 或更高的淨收入。

We have returned approximately $3.8 billion of capital to our shareholders in fiscal year '23 through share repurchase and dividends and expect to return 40% to 60% of our adjusted free cash flow to our shareholders over time. Expect us to continue to be disciplined in how we manage the business in the current macro environment, focusing on what we can control and delivering for our customers. Now I'll turn it back to Rob to begin Q&A.

我們在 23 財年通過股票回購和派息向股東返還了約 38 億美元的資本，並預計隨著時間的推移將調整後的自由現金流的 40% 至 60% 返還給股東。希望我們在當前的宏觀環境中繼續遵守我們如何管理業務的紀律，專注於我們可以控制和為客戶提供的東西。現在我將把它轉回 Rob 開始問答。

Thanks, Tom. Let's get to Q&A. (Operator Instructions) Let's go to the first question.

謝謝，湯姆。讓我們開始問答吧。 （操作員說明）讓我們回到第一個問題。

We'll take our first question from Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.

我們將從 Wells Fargo 的 Aaron Rakers 那裡回答我們的第一個問題。

Congratulations on the good execution in a tough environment. Thinking about the guidance into the April quarter, I'm curious if you could help me unpack particularly the server business, what you're seeing as far as the demand environment thus far into the April quarter. And how do we kind of triangulate what you've seen from a pricing perspective, sustainability of that as we look at the deflationary elements of component pricing?

祝賀你在艱難的環境中表現出色。考慮到 4 月季度的指導，我很好奇你是否可以幫助我特別是服務器業務，你所看到的到目前為止到 4 月季度的需求環境。當我們查看組件定價的通貨緊縮因素時，我們如何從定價的角度對您所看到的進行三角測量，可持續性？

Yes. Aaron, let me start. The -- look, as we highlighted in the prepared remarks, we saw a continuation of the trends that we started calling out in Q2 and accelerated in Q3 in the server business with weak underlying demand. And frankly, it deteriorated over the course of the quarter.

是的。亞倫，讓我開始吧。看起來，正如我們在準備好的評論中強調的那樣，我們看到了我們在第二季度開始呼籲並在第三季度加速的服務器業務趨勢的延續，基本需求疲軟。坦率地說，它在整個季度中都在惡化。

The texture we would add would be -- the slowdown is probably most pronounced in the largest customers. Ultimately, our transactional business performed a bit better but was still declining. And the texture was we saw customers still digesting inventory, tightening budgets, stretching decision time lines.

我們要添加的紋理是——放緩可能在最大的客戶中最為明顯。最終，我們的交易業務表現好一些，但仍在下降。我們看到客戶仍在消化庫存、收緊預算、延長決策時間線。

Our win-loss ratio didn't change, and it was in line with historical performance. And as we said, we expect to gain share in Q4. So ultimately, this is the market going through a digestion cycle, not our performance.

我們的輸贏率沒有變化，與歷史表現一致。正如我們所說，我們希望在第四季度獲得份額。所以最終，這是市場正在經歷一個消化週期，而不是我們的表現。

As you said, our performance of 5% was driven by a couple of things. One was optimizing shipments in quarter, but the other was higher year-over-year revenue per unit performance. That was higher content rate of memory and SSD, higher services, good attach of our enterprise peripherals, sort of our direct sales motion in action.

正如您所說，我們 5% 的業績是由幾件事推動的。一個是優化季度出貨量，另一個是每單位性能的同比收入更高。那是更高的內存和 SSD 內容率、更高的服務、我們企業外圍設備的良好連接，以及我們的直接銷售活動。

Look, ultimately, we are seeing pricing pressure in all our business, and server is not immune. I'd just say we've expected that. We factored that into both our operational and financial plans, and we've factored it into the guidance going forward. So we anticipate in this environment continuing to see pricing pressure, but obviously, we're pleased with the content rate performance and ultimately, the performance of our attach business.

看，最終，我們在所有業務中都看到了價格壓力，服務器也不能倖免。我只是說我們已經預料到這一點。我們將其納入了我們的運營和財務計劃，並將其納入了未來的指導方針。因此，我們預計在這種環境下會繼續看到定價壓力，但顯然，我們對內容率表現以及最終我們附加業務的表現感到滿意。

Our next question will come from David Vogt with UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的 David Vogt。

Maybe just a clarification on CSG. I know obviously, it's a difficult backdrop and you talked about sort of the pressure that you saw throughout the quarter and into the beginning part of this quarter. But I think I also caught you mention that it sounded as if ASPs were trending higher. Can you kind of discuss kind of what's driving that and where sort of inventory is for you guys? And how do you think the market inventory looks as we move through the balance of this fiscal year? When do you think we can get to a more normalized inventory position from an industry perspective.

也許只是對 CSG 的澄清。我顯然知道，這是一個艱難的背景，你談到了你在整個季度和本季度初看到的某種壓力。但我想我也注意到你提到它聽起來好像 ASP 趨勢更高。你們能討論一下是什麼推動了這一點，以及你們的庫存在哪裡嗎？在我們度過本財政年度的餘額時，您如何看待市場庫存？從行業的角度來看，您認為我們什麼時候可以達到更正常的庫存狀況。

Yes. Sure. So look, the CSG business, as you said, it continued to be challenged in the quarter. We won't repeat all the market data, but obviously, Q4 was one of the more challenging volume quarters in history. And both across the consumer market, which continues to be under real pressure where we're seeing significant amounts of inventory in the channel, a much slower China market. And the commercial business continues to remain challenged as those customers are delaying purchases, buying for immediate needs and tilting IT spending elsewhere.

是的。當然。因此，正如您所說，CSG 業務在本季度繼續受到挑戰。我們不會重複所有的市場數據，但顯然，第四季度是歷史上最具挑戰性的交易量季度之一。整個消費市場都繼續承受著真正的壓力，我們看到渠道中有大量庫存，中國市場增長緩慢。商業業務繼續面臨挑戰，因為這些客戶正在推遲購買、購買以滿足即時需求並將 IT 支出轉移到其他地方。

We are seeing, from an inventory standpoint, elevated inventory levels. We obviously benefit in our business from much lower inventory levels, which you have seen consistently in our performance. But there's inventory in both the consumer business and the commercial business now.

從庫存的角度來看，我們看到庫存水平升高。顯然，我們的業務受益於低得多的庫存水平，您在我們的業績中一直看到這一點。但現在消費者業務和商業業務都有庫存。

Look, ultimately, the guidance that we've given in our comments on the year, we expect the business to return to sequential growth over the course of the year. But without calling specifically right now when inventory -- we'll get back in profile. It will be later in the year, certainly as we enter Q1, inventory is elevated.

最終，看看我們在今年的評論中給出的指導，我們預計該業務將在今年恢復連續增長。但是，在清點庫存時，現在無需特別緻電——我們會重新回到個人資料中。這將在今年晚些時候，當然隨著我們進入第一季度，庫存會增加。

And maybe, David, just a couple of other points around ASPs. Look, we benefited from a higher commercial mix in Q4. We benefited from more notebooks than desktops, which carry a higher ASP. And we continue to benefit from our unique operating model, the direct model where we can attach peripherals, software and services, which I think continues to help us. And those businesses are very strong for us. And then if you look inside commercial, our Precision workstation business had a very good quarter on a relative basis, which carries substantially higher ASPs.

大衛，也許只是關於 ASP 的其他幾點。看，我們受益於第四季度更高的商業組合。與台式機相比，我們受益於更多的筆記本電腦，後者的 ASP 更高。我們繼續受益於我們獨特的運營模式，即我們可以附加外圍設備、軟件和服務的直接模式，我認為這將繼續幫助我們。這些業務對我們來說非常強大。然後，如果你看看商業內部，我們的 Precision 工作站業務在相對基礎上有一個非常好的季度，它的平均售價要高得多。

Next question, operator.

下一個問題，接線員。

That will be from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

那將來自 Toni Sacconaghi 和 Bernstein。

I was wondering if you could just help with the bridge for particularly Q1 guidance since that sets the foundation for the full year. Historically, you're down about 7% sequentially. You're guiding for down 19%. How much was the extra week? How much was backlog drawdown in the quarter that you don't think replicates? And how much is your assumption for kind of incremental macro weakness because there's still a really big gap between being down 7% and being down 19%, and then you're calling for potentially normal seasonality thereafter?

我想知道您是否可以為特別是第一季度的指導提供幫助，因為這為全年奠定了基礎。從歷史上看，你連續下跌了大約 7%。你指導下降 19%。額外的一周多少錢？您認為不會復制的本季度積壓縮減了多少？你對增量宏觀疲軟的假設是多少，因為在下降 7% 和下降 19% 之間仍然存在很大差距，然後你要求此後可能出現正常的季節性？

And then can you also just address free cash flow? I think you're guiding for net income of $3.7 billion to $3.8 billion. Do you expect free cash flow realization to be better or worse than that number?

然後你也能解決自由現金流問題嗎？我認為您指導的淨收入為 37 億美元至 38 億美元。您預計自由現金流的實現會比這個數字更好還是更差？

Toni, let me sort of take the first part of that question on the walk from Q4 to Q1 revenue. So we printed $25 billion, and you're right, typically, we do see sequential sort of in that minus 7% to minus 9% range roughly. So how we think about it in the guide sort of works like this. So the 14th week provided roughly $700 million to $800 million of incremental revenue. So back that off. If you do the RPO deferred revenue math that we provided for you, you sort of get to a backlog adjustment, roughly about $2 billion to $2.2 billion. And then the incremental seasonality or the incremental weakness that we're seeing is sort of the remainder of that, okay? So that walks you down to the $20.2 billion.

托尼，讓我從第 4 季度到第 1 季度的收入來回答這個問題的第一部分。所以我們印刷了 250 億美元，你是對的，通常情況下，我們確實看到大致在負 7% 到負 9% 範圍內的連續排序。因此，我們在指南中的思考方式是這樣的。因此，第 14 週提供了大約 7 億至 8 億美元的增量收入。所以把它關掉。如果你計算我們為你提供的 RPO 遞延收入數學，你就會得到積壓調整，大約在 20 億到 22 億美元之間。然後我們看到的增量季節性或增量弱點就是剩下的部分，好嗎？所以這會讓你下降到 202 億美元。

So look, I mean, as Chuck mentioned in his opening comments, we are seeing that continued softness. Our expectation and how we have built our plan for the year says we recover throughout the year but we do expect Q1 to sort of have -- to be in that sort of zip code at this point in time.

所以看，我的意思是，正如查克在開場白中提到的那樣，我們看到了持續的疲軟。我們的期望以及我們如何制定今年的計劃表明我們全年都會恢復，但我們確實希望第一季度有某種程度的 - 在這個時間點處於那種郵政編碼中。

And then on free cash flow, as you know, we don't guide free cash flow. But I think we would expect cash generation given the plan that we have with sequential improvement as you go through the year to improve cash flow. Tyler, I don't know if you'd add anything to that.

然後關於自由現金流，如你所知，我們不指導自由現金流。但我認為，鑑於我們在一年中改善現金流的連續改進計劃，我們預計會產生現金。泰勒，我不知道你是否願意為此添加任何內容。

Yes. No, I think that's right. I mean I guess the one thing I would add, recognizing we don't provide guidance, if you think about some of the dynamics that we had in FY '23, as we're thinking about next year, I do think that we should expect that free cash flow conversion to be better than what we saw in FY '23.

是的。不，我認為這是對的。我的意思是我想我要補充一件事，認識到我們不提供指導，如果你考慮我們在 23 財年的一些動態，就像我們考慮明年一樣，我確實認為我們應該預計自由現金流轉換會比我們在 23 財年看到的更好。

That question will be from Jim Suva with Citigroup.

這個問題將來自花旗集團的吉姆蘇瓦。

Great results, and thank you for being clear on the outlook. When we think about a softening demand environment in the year 2023 and your cautionary below normal seasonal for Q1, how should we think about capital deployment? Would you all be doing more stock buyback? You just increased your dividend, which is great. But how should we think about deploying capital in a year that's starting off more challenged? And of course, you're going through restructuring, so I'm conscious of that.

很棒的結果，感謝您對前景的清晰認識。當我們考慮 2023 年疲軟的需求環境以及您對第一季度低於正常季節性的警告時，我們應該如何考慮資本配置？你們會做更多的股票回購嗎？您剛剛增加了股息，這很好。但是，我們應該如何考慮在開始更具挑戰性的一年中部署資本？當然，你正在經歷重組，所以我意識到了這一點。

Look, I think you should think about capital allocation like this for the year. We're committed to our long-term framework of 40% to 60% shareholder capital return over time. Obviously, we were -- we had an accelerated return in fiscal year '23, given the amount of share buyback we did. I would think about it like this. We raised the dividend 12% to $1.48 on an annual basis for the year. I think that provides a foundation as we think about our confidence in the long-term business model and long-term cash flow generation of the company.

看，我認為你應該考慮今年的資本分配。隨著時間的推移，我們致力於實現 40% 至 60% 的股東資本回報率的長期框架。顯然，考慮到我們所做的股票回購數量，我們在 23 財年的回報率有所提高。我會這樣想。我們將本年度的股息提高 12% 至 1.48 美元。我認為這為我們考慮對公司的長期商業模式和長期現金流產生的信心提供了基礎。

From a share buyback, we don't forecast that, but I'm on the record of saying that we'll manage dilution from a share buyback perspective. And obviously, we'll continue to be opportunistic as we look at the -- where the share price is relative to other uses of our capital.

從股票回購來看，我們沒有預測到這一點，但我公開表示我們將從股票回購的角度管理稀釋。很明顯，我們將繼續保持機會主義，因為我們會考慮——股價與我們資本的其他用途相關的地方。

Our next question will come from Erik Woodring with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Erik Woodring。

I just want to touch on operating margins kind of for each segment. We saw each of them trend kind of in opposing direction, CSG lower than normal, ISG higher than normal. As we think about looking forward, is there any structural change that we should be thinking about? Particularly on the CSG side, should we be thinking about operating margin for this business now closer to 5% to 6%? Or is 6% to 8%, what you've been doing over the last few years, more likely, again, as we look past this near-term dislocation to more normalized times?

我只想談談每個細分市場的營業利潤率。我們看到它們中的每一個都朝著相反的方向發展，CSG 低於正常水平，ISG 高於正常水平。當我們考慮展望未來時，是否有任何我們應該考慮的結構性變化？特別是在 CSG 方面，我們是否應該考慮該業務的營業利潤率現在接近 5% 至 6%？或者是 6% 到 8%，你在過去幾年一直在做的事情，更有可能再次出現，因為我們將目光從近期的錯位轉移到更正常的時期？

Yes. I would say that I think you're in the ballpark on op margin over how we're thinking about it for the year to be blunt, right? I mean we did enjoy higher op margins over the pandemic period. But I think a more normalized view of -- in the range that you talked about is how we're thinking about the business for the year. Obviously, we're going to do all we can to maximize profitability while making sure that we drive relative performance and share as appropriate. So -- but I think you're in the frame -- you're in the ballpark on how you're thinking about it.

是的。我想說的是，我認為你在運營利潤率方面處於領先地位，因為我們今年的想法是直截了當的，對吧？我的意思是我們在大流行期間確實享有更高的運營利潤率。但我認為更規範化的觀點 - 在你談到的範圍內是我們如何考慮今年的業務。顯然，我們將盡我們所能最大限度地提高盈利能力，同時確保我們適當地推動相對績效和份額。所以——但我認為你在框架內——你在大致了解你是如何思考它的。

The ISG margins, look, we had a strong Q4. You think about the impact of all of the storage strength that we saw, clearly was very beneficial to the margin. I would highlight the fact that within that storage mix, we had a really strong mix of our own storage software IP, which is very helpful from a profitability perspective, and we expect that mix to continue to be helpful on a go-forward basis.

ISG 利潤率，看，我們的第四季度表現強勁。你想想我們看到的所有存儲強度的影響，顯然對利潤率非常有利。我要強調的是，在該存儲組合中，我們擁有非常強大的自己的存儲軟件 IP 組合，從盈利的角度來看這非常有幫助，我們希望這種組合在未來繼續發揮作用。

So look, I tend to think that we're probably back in sort of more normalized, a little bit couple of points less than perhaps we finished in Q4. As you think through the year, 200 to 250 basis points, something like that. But that's the chemistry of the P&L. We expect storage to be stronger next year, servers to be slightly softer in ISG and the CSG business to sort of generate the margins we talked about.

所以看，我傾向於認為我們可能回到了某種更正常化的狀態，比我們在第四季度完成的可能少了一點點。正如你對這一年的看法，200 到 250 個基點，類似的東西。但這就是損益表的化學反應。我們預計明年存儲會更強勁，ISG 和 CSG 業務的服務器會略微疲軟，從而產生我們談到的利潤率。

That question will come from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

這個問題將來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

I guess if I can just ask you for -- on the full year guide. You're guiding to about 12% to 18% decline in revenues. Can you share your thoughts about how you're thinking about that split between CSG and ISG for the full year guide? I know you gave some directional commentary on 1Q itself, but just wondering if you can sort of rightsize as to how to think about CSG and ISG. And when you talk about that wide range for the full year guide for the year, where is the bigger variable? Is it more on a CSG recovery? Or in your mind, is this more sort of contingent on how ISG pans out?

我想我是否可以問你關於全年指南的問題。你指導收入下降約 12% 到 18%。您能否分享您對全年指南中 CSG 和 ISG 之間拆分的看法？我知道你對 1Q 本身給出了一些定向評論，但只是想知道你是否可以對如何考慮 CSG 和 ISG 進行調整。當你談論全年指南的廣泛範圍時，更大的變量在哪裡？它更多地是關於 CSG 復甦嗎？或者在您看來，這是否更取決於 ISG 的結果？

Yes. I would say it like this. I would expect that as we look at the performance of the business units next year, from a growth perspective, they're generally sort of both in the mid -- sort of negative mid-teens in terms of growth rates for the year. Obviously, we guided to a midpoint of minus 15% or you can do the math, $87 billion. So they're generally on top of each other in terms of growth rates.

是的。我會這樣說。我預計，當我們看一下明年業務部門的業績時，從增長的角度來看，它們通常都處於中等水平——就今年的增長率而言，處於負的中等水平。顯然，我們引導至負 15% 的中點，或者您可以計算一下，即 870 億美元。因此，它們在增長率方面通常處於領先地位。

In terms of the variability, look, I mean, we're cognizant of the state of the macro, the uncertainty in the environment, and as Chuck highlighted in his talking points, there is a level of customer hesitancy out there at this point. So I do think that we built a plan that says that, hey, we expect the sequentials to improve as we go through the year. That's how we thought about the business.

就可變性而言，看，我的意思是，我們認識到宏觀的狀態，環境的不確定性，正如查克在他的談話要點中強調的那樣，此時客戶有一定程度的猶豫。所以我確實認為我們制定了一個計劃，說，嘿，我們希望隨著這一年的推移，順序會有所改善。這就是我們對業務的看法。

One data point to think about, particularly with PCs is that if you go back and look over time at other recessionary periods, whether it's all the way back to the dot-com bust of 2000 or the great financial crisis of 2008 to 2009, in general, what you see is a period of decline in both client and servers of, say, 4 to 6 quarters worth of decline. And if we think about where we are -- it's not a perfect predictor, but if you think about where we are in the context of that sort of metric to where we are today, we're on the tail end of that. And so we're optimistic that as we go through the year, we'll see some lift in that.

一個值得思考的數據點，尤其是關於 PC 的數據點是，如果你回顧過去並回顧過去的其他經濟衰退時期，無論是一直追溯到 2000 年的互聯網泡沫破滅還是 2008 年至 2009 年的金融危機，一般來說，您看到的是客戶端和服務器的下降期，比方說，下降了 4 到 6 個季度。如果我們考慮我們所處的位置——它不是一個完美的預測器，但如果你考慮我們在這種指標的背景下與我們今天所處的位置相比，我們就處於尾聲。因此，我們樂觀地認為，在這一年中，我們會看到一些提升。

And so look, I'm not going to probability weight where my risk is. I do think that -- I think we've got a solid plan that is focused on executing, and you can count on us to navigate the environment, and we'll be disciplined in how we do it.

所以看，我不會在我的風險所在的地方進行概率加權。我確實認為 - 我認為我們有一個專注於執行的可靠計劃，你可以指望我們在環境中導航，我們將在我們的工作方式上受到紀律處分。

We'll take our next question from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

我們將接受來自美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan 的下一個問題。

I was wondering if you could clarify a little bit on the linearity of demand. It sounds like you had a pretty back-end loaded quarter given your comments on the receivables, but you're also talking about weakness here more than normal seasonal in 1Q. Can you talk about maybe what you saw happen to orders a little bit more granularly? What did you see in January? What did you see in February? And are you expecting order patterns to trend here in the near term?

我想知道您是否可以澄清一下需求的線性度。考慮到您對應收賬款的評論，這聽起來像是您有一個相當後端負載的季度，但您也在談論這裡的疲軟，而不是第一季度的正常季節性。您能否更詳細地談談您所看到的訂單發生的情況？你在一月份看到了什麼？你在二月看到了什麼？您是否預計短期內訂單模式會出現趨勢？

Yes. Let me start and just tell you what we observed in Q4, which was -- we did see our -- as is typical, given our high storage quarter, linearity trend towards the back part of the quarter. That's not atypical for our business in Q4, particularly given the heavy storage mix and the seasonally strong storage quarter.

是的。讓我開始並告訴你我們在第四季度觀察到的情況，這是 - 我們確實看到了 - 就像典型的那樣，考慮到我們的高存儲季度，該季度後半部分的線性趨勢。這對於我們第四季度的業務來說並不少見，特別是考慮到大量的存儲組合和季節性強勁的存儲季度。

I would say that maybe versus historical norms, the server business also tended to trend a little bit more back-end loaded. As I mentioned in my earlier response, we did see deterioration over the course of the quarter of server demand. And to the extent that large bids or deals closed, they did tend to close in the back part of the quarter more than normal. So there was a little bit of uneven seasonality.

我想說的是，也許與歷史規範相比，服務器業務也傾向於後端負載更多一點。正如我在之前的回復中提到的那樣，我們確實看到服務器需求在本季度出現惡化。就大額出價或交易的結束而言，它們確實傾向於在本季度後半段比正常情況下更多地結束。所以有一點不平衡的季節性。

I don't know that we expect any material change sort of coming into our next quarter, and we certainly won't try to forecast linearity in the next quarter. I would say storage tends to be booked in the last portion of the quarter, that's very, very typical. Server was a little bit of an anomaly and, I think, reflects the cautious demand environment that we're navigating our way through.

我不知道我們是否預計下一季度會出現任何實質性變化，我們當然不會嘗試預測下一季度的線性度。我想說存儲往往會在本季度的最後一部分被預訂，這是非常非常典型的。服務器有點反常，我認為這反映了我們正在經歷的謹慎需求環境。

Chuck, let me add that -- and as we finished January, we obviously came to the end of a sales compensation cycle as well, which always tends to be a bit -- drive a bit more activity towards the end of the quarter. That's not unusual on a 6-month quota period. So that also sort of highlights that it was a bit more back-end loaded.

查克，讓我補充一點——當我們一月份結束時，我們顯然也結束了銷售補償週期，這總是有點——在本季度末推動更多的活動。這在 6 個月的配額期內並不罕見。因此，這也突出了它的後端加載更多一些。

And so -- but Wamsi, in terms of trying to extrapolate that into, okay, how do you think about that demand trend for our linearity pattern for Q1, it's a different pattern in Q1. You're coming off of year-end budgets for corporates that tend to spend a bit more in the fourth quarter versus a seasonally softer quarter. And so it tends to be a bit more -- a little less back-end loaded, but that's hard to predict in this environment, to be honest.

所以 - 但是 Wamsi，就試圖將其推斷為，好吧，你如何看待我們第一季度線性模式的需求趨勢，這是第一季度的不同模式。對於那些傾向於在第四季度花費更多而不是季節性疲軟的季度的公司來說，你正在結束年終預算。因此，它往往會多一點——少一點後端負載，但老實說，在這種環境下很難預測。

Our next question will come from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

I guess I was hoping to talk a bit more about the ISG segment with the full year guide being down 15%. That seems to be more severe than I think what your storage or server peers are talking about. I think NetApp said flat storage environment. HPE, I think, raised the full year guide actually right now. So I'm just trying to understand, what are you seeing that's driving a much more tempered outlook versus your peers?

我想我希望多談談 ISG 部分，全年指南下降 15%。這似乎比我認為您的存儲或服務器同行所談論的更嚴重。我認為 NetApp 說的是平面存儲環境。我認為，HPE 實際上現在就提出了全年指南。所以我只是想了解，與同行相比，您看到了什麼正在推動更加溫和的前景？

And as you think about this down 15% expectation in ISG, can you just [slice] the servers versus storage? Or are you seeing share gains reverse somewhere? Just any clarity that would be helpful because it seems a bit more severe than what IDC, Gartner or your peers are saying.

當您考慮 ISG 的預期下降 15% 時，您能否只 [切片] 服務器與存儲？還是您看到股票收益在某處逆轉？只是任何有幫助的澄清，因為它似乎比 IDC、Gartner 或您的同行所說的更嚴格。

Yes. I would say I can't speak to what others have said about their businesses. All I would tell you is that as we think about the trends and what we expect is that we would expect servers to be softer than storage as we go through the full year, right, with probably more pressure on the front half on servers than on the back as we go through the year. We do expect storage to hold up better. Yes, I'm not going to do the split, but that's our general thinking. That's what we see. If it's stronger than that, great. But that's our expectation right now about how we plan the business is on that sort of framework.

是的。我會說我不能談論其他人對他們的業務所說的話。我要告訴你的是，當我們考慮趨勢和我們的預期時，我們預計在全年中服務器會比存儲更軟，對吧，服務器的前半部分壓力可能比我們度過這一年的背面。我們確實希望存儲能夠更好地支撐。是的，我不打算拆分，但這是我們的一般想法。這就是我們所看到的。如果它比那個強，那很好。但這是我們現在對我們如何在這種框架上規劃業務的期望。

Sorry, I was just going to say, you don't expect share gain to reverse course or any of that is embedded in these expectations, right?

抱歉，我只是想說，您不期望股票收益會逆轉，或者這些期望中包含任何一個，對嗎？

No, we don't. We build our plans to gain share. So this is what's reflected in our core guide is to gain share in all of our core business as we have consistently. Again, I think the customer texture is what we're reflecting in the guide in Q1, which is that as we enter the year, it's a challenging demand drop -- or demand backdrop, excuse me. It weakened as the quarter progressed.

不，我們沒有。我們制定計劃以獲得份額。因此，這就是我們核心指南中所反映的，即一如既往地獲得我們所有核心業務的份額。同樣，我認為客戶結構是我們在第一季度的指南中所反映的，那就是當我們進入這一年時，這是一個具有挑戰性的需求下降——或者需求背景，對不起。它隨著季度的進展而減弱。

As we look forward for the rest of the year, as Tom said, we do expect a return to sequential growth. It's driven by really a couple of factors. One is just a belief that when you compare this cycle to prior macro cycles in our industry, that 4 to 6 quarters of demand decline that Tom referenced as being the historic level, we're deep into that now.

正如湯姆所說，我們期待今年餘下的時間，我們確實預計會恢復連續增長。它實際上是由幾個因素驅動的。一個只是相信，當你將這個週期與我們行業之前的宏觀週期進行比較時，湯姆將 4 到 6 個季度的需求下降稱為歷史水平，我們現在正在深入研究。

And then customers, what I would say is that just the cycle feels different right now. There's less outright company financial distress. There's fewer outright cancellations of projects. We're seeing some evidence of budget stabilizing and even increasing given inflation. So look, in infrastructure, customers are continuing to plan projects, but they're also behaving cautious right now, and that's what's sort of reflected in our commentary.

然後是客戶，我要說的是，現在的周期感覺不一樣了。沒有那麼明顯的公司財務困境。完全取消項目的情況有所減少。我們看到一些證據表明，在通貨膨脹的情況下，預算正在穩定甚至增加。所以看，在基礎設施方面，客戶正在繼續規劃項目，但他們現在也表現得很謹慎，這在我們的評論中有所反映。

We'll now move to Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

我們現在將與雷蒙德·詹姆斯一起轉向西蒙·利奧波德。

I guess what I want to try to follow up on is, in particular, the relationship between storage and servers. In that last earnings call, you did sound cautious on servers but were more optimistic on your storage business, and now we're seeing you more cautious on storage. And I guess I'm a little bit surprised, I would think that the 2 should be correlated and be driven by many of the same trends. So I'm trying to understand better, what changed in the last 90 days or so to change that view on storage?

我想我想跟進的是，特別是存儲和服務器之間的關係。在上次的財報電話會議上，您確實對服務器持謹慎態度，但對您的存儲業務更為樂觀，現在我們看到您對存儲業務更加謹慎。而且我想我有點驚訝，我認為 2 應該是相關的並且由許多相同的趨勢驅動。所以我試圖更好地理解，在過去 90 天左右發生了什麼改變了對存儲的看法？

Yes. Thanks for the question. Look, we're just seeing underlying evidence of moderating growth as we came through the quarter. So look, as we said in the prepared remarks, we had a good quarter. And specifically, we saw strength in our very large customers. But that large strength was offsetting declines that we saw in medium and small business. So our medium and small business performance in storage did moderate quarter-on-quarter. And that's typically a leading indicator for us for a slowdown in the business.

是的。謝謝你的問題。看，我們剛剛看到本季度增長放緩的潛在證據。所以看，正如我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，我們有一個很好的季度。具體來說，我們看到了我們非常大的客戶的實力。但這種強大的實力抵消了我們在中小企業中看到的下滑。因此，我們的中小型企業在存儲方面的業績環比表現平平。這通常是我們業務放緩的領先指標。

And texturally, I would tell you the caution that we saw in the server market is starting to appear in the storage market as well. Cycle times on deals has stretched, the number of opportunities we see has declined, and we see customers resizing budgets, increasing the number of approvals, all of the things that we saw in the server market.

從結構上講，我會告訴你我們在服務器市場上看到的謹慎也開始出現在存儲市場上。交易週期延長，我們看到的機會數量減少，我們看到客戶調整預算，增加批准數量，所有這些都是我們在服務器市場上看到的。

So as you referenced, we've long cautioned that the storage market is not immune to the broader trends in IT, but it often lags the server business. It also shows less amplitude than servers, but it's ultimately not immune. And so that's the caution you hear us, reflecting that's what we saw in Q4. We think we're seeing the early signs of a little bit of slowing in the storage market.

因此，正如您所提到的，我們長期以來一直警告說，存儲市場並不能不受 IT 更廣泛趨勢的影響，但它往往落後於服務器業務。它也顯示出比服務器更小的振幅，但它最終也不能倖免。所以這就是你聽到我們的警告，反映了我們在第四季度看到的情況。我們認為我們看到了存儲市場放緩的早期跡象。

We'll take our next question from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

我們將接受德意志銀行 Sidney Ho 的下一個問題。

I also want to ask about the full year guidance. Obviously, things seems to have deteriorated throughout the quarter and the correction, like you said, could be 4 to 6 quarters. But I'm curious, are you seeing any of your businesses reaching a trough sooner than others because of your customers so aggressively cutting back on inventory? I'm thinking about server, storage and PC, maybe within PC, consumer versus commercial. Which one will help you come back to resume growth later in the year?

我還想問一下全年指導。顯然，整個季度情況似乎都在惡化，如您所說，調整可能持續 4 到 6 個季度。但我很好奇，您是否看到您的任何企業因為您的客戶如此積極地削減庫存而比其他企業更早達到低谷？我正在考慮服務器、存儲和 PC，也許在 PC 內部，消費者與商業。哪一個可以幫助您在今年晚些時候恢復增長？

Yes. Sidney, look, I think if you look at the pattern, we saw the softness -- if you go all the way back early last year, we saw the softness first manifest itself in the PC space, right? And then the server space followed as we got through Q2, on to Q3, Q4. So logically, one would think that PCs come back -- as we think about a pattern that and how we plan the business, we would expect to see some level of PC recovery as a leading indicator. And then I think servers would follow.

是的。西德尼，你看，我想如果你看一下模式，我們就會看到軟性——如果你一直追溯到去年年初，我們看到軟性首先在 PC 領域表現出來，對吧？然後是服務器空間，隨著我們通過第二季度，進入第三季度，第四季度。所以從邏輯上講，人們會認為 PC 會回來——當我們考慮一種模式以及我們如何規劃業務時，我們希望看到某種程度的 PC 恢復是一個領先指標。然後我認為服務器會隨之而來。

I will highlight Chuck's comment on storage, which is, look, it's not immune to some of the softness, but the amplitude of the variation there is going to be, we think, less just given the data creation activity that's out there in the market and the underlying trends. So I think our perspective is how past patterns have been, I would expect PCs first then servers and then storage to be sort of relatively stable but a little bit of pressure on that.

我將強調查克對存儲的評論，也就是說，看，它不能倖免於一些疲軟，但我們認為，變化的幅度將會很大，不僅僅是考慮到市場上的數據創建活動以及潛在的趨勢。所以我認為我們的觀點是過去的模式是怎樣的，我希望 PC 首先是服務器，然後是存儲相對穩定，但對此有一點壓力。

Okay. Great. Thanks for the question, Sidney. Operator, let's take 2 more questions. Then I wanted to let everyone know that we're going to turn the call over to Michael for a short close.

好的。偉大的。謝謝你的問題，西德尼。接線員，我們再問2個問題。然後我想讓每個人都知道我們將把電話轉給邁克爾進行短暫的結束。

We'll take our next question from Krish Sankar with TD Cowen.

我們將接受 Krish Sankar 和 TD Cowen 的下一個問題。

Congrats on the good results. I just wanted to check, Chuck, on pricing and cost, how to think about the commodity and logistical cost environment in both CSG and ISG, specifically how to think about it over the next few quarters relative to the past 2. Are the biggest rate of cost declines behind us?

恭喜取得好成績。 Chuck，我只是想檢查一下定價和成本，如何考慮 CSG 和 ISG 的商品和物流成本環境，具體來說，相對於過去 2，未來幾個季度如何考慮。我們身後的成本下降？

This is Jeff. I'll do commodities and then I'll hand it over to Chuck to talk about pricing. But if you think about the environment we're in today and you look at the landscape of inventory, what's happening with the falling demand, we were deflationary in Q4, we expect component cost to be deflationary in Q1 and Q2, most notably driven by DRAM, NAND and LCDs across our businesses.

這是傑夫。我會做商品，然後我會把它交給查克來談定價。但如果你想想我們今天所處的環境，看看庫存情況，需求下降會發生什麼，我們在第四季度出現通貨緊縮，我們預計組件成本將在第一季度和第二季度出現通貨緊縮，最顯著的驅動因素是我們業務中的 DRAM、NAND 和 LCD。

We also think when you look at freight costs, which we've talked a lot over the past the -- seems forever, but 2 years plus about the rising logistics costs, they have tilted the other way as well. We're paying fewer dollars and supplier premiums, fewer parts are being expedited. Our freight costs are down on those parts. We're able now to use our ocean network more vastly than our air network. We've seen ocean costs come down to near pre-COVID levels, and we've seen air costs come down, not quite to pre-COVID levels, but they have tilted going the other way. So our input costs for the first half of the year will be down.

我們還認為，當您查看運費時，我們過去已經談了很多——似乎永遠不會發生，但 2 年多來物流成本的上升，他們也向另一個方向傾斜。我們支付更少的美元和供應商溢價，更少的零件被加速。這些零件的運費降低了。我們現在能夠比我們的空中網絡更廣泛地使用我們的海洋網絡。我們已經看到海運成本下降到接近 COVID 之前的水平，我們也看到空運成本下降了，雖然沒有完全下降到 COVID 之前的水平，但它們已經向另一個方向傾斜了。所以我們上半年的投入成本會下降。

And on pricing, look, we've certainly seen increased pricing pressure. It was most acute in the consumer business where we saw high levels of discounting and front- and back-end rebates being used to move channel inventory. We saw pressure in the commercial PC business as well. It was most acute again in large bids and in our channel stock and sell business where there is still elevated levels of industry inventory. And pricing aggression stepped up in servers as well, again, particularly the largest bids and largest customers.

在定價方面，看，我們肯定看到定價壓力增加了。這在消費者業務中最為嚴重，我們看到高水平的折扣和前端和後端折扣被用來轉移渠道庫存。我們也看到了商用 PC 業務的壓力。在大宗投標和我們的渠道庫存和銷售業務中，這種情況再次最為嚴重，行業庫存水平仍然很高。服務器中的定價侵略也在加劇，尤其是最大的出價和最大的客戶。

I'd say -- given what Jeff just said, ultimately, we recognize that in a weak demand environment and a deflationary commodity environment, there's going to be downward pricing pressure. We've obviously factored that into our financial and operating plans and ultimately, the guidance we gave you today. I'd just add that we try to remain very disciplined in our pricing. There's frankly not a lot of elasticity right now in the market, particularly in the commercial PC and server business, so we're being very disciplined given that backdrop.

我會說 - 鑑於傑夫剛才所說的，最終，我們認識到在疲軟的需求環境和通貨緊縮的商品環境中，將會出現價格下行壓力。我們顯然已將其納入我們的財務和運營計劃，並最終納入我們今天給您的指導。我只想補充一點，我們試圖在定價方面保持非常有紀律。坦率地說，目前市場上沒有太多彈性，尤其是在商用 PC 和服務器業務方面，因此在這種背景下我們非常自律。

We'll now take our final question from Kyle McNealy with Jefferies.

我們現在將與 Jefferies 一起接受 Kyle McNealy 的最後一個問題。

You mentioned that you'll see sequential growth through the year, which indicates you may be getting past the peak pressure of slowing demand and elevated channel inventories in PCs or you expect to get past that in Q1 at least. Is there anything you can say about what gives you that confidence that we could be getting past peak pressure, whether it's channel inventories coming down at the margin or year-over-year trends getting less negative in recent weeks?

你提到你將看到全年連續增長，這表明你可能正在克服需求放緩和 PC 渠道庫存增加的峰值壓力，或者你預計至少在第一季度會過去。你有什麼可以說的，是什麼讓你有信心我們可以克服峰值壓力，無論是渠道庫存在邊際下降還是最近幾週的同比趨勢變得不那麼消極？

And following on to that, when do you expect to start seeing some refreshes of early pandemic PC buys coming into the model? Can we see some of that later this year? Or is that -- that's fiscal '25 and beyond event?

接下來，您預計什麼時候開始看到早期大流行 PC 購買的一些更新進入該模型？我們可以在今年晚些時候看到其中的一些嗎？還是那是 25 財年及以後的事件？

Well, look, again, as we've tried to highlight, it's hard to pin the exact moment of the rebound. We are -- again, if you compare it to the historic cycles, 4 to 6 quarters of demand decline, and we're deep into that in the PC business.

好吧，再看一次，正如我們試圖強調的那樣，很難確定反彈的確切時刻。我們 - 再次，如果你將它與歷史週期進行比較，需求下降 4 到 6 個季度，我們在 PC 業務中深入研究。

I think what we would say is in commercial PCs, customers continue to reinforce the criticality of that device to us. As you said, there were 62 million core commercial notebooks shipped in the first 9 months of 2020. A refresh cycle is coming. When exactly that starts is what we're trying to think our way through. But the logic of prior cycles and what we're hearing from customers says that we should expect sort of sequential growth to return later this year.

我認為我們要說的是在商用 PC 中，客戶繼續強調該設備對我們的重要性。正如你所說，2020年前9個月核心商用筆記本出貨量為6200萬台，更新換代周期即將到來。究竟什麼時候開始是我們正在努力思考的問題。但根據先前週期的邏輯以及我們從客戶那裡聽到的信息，我們應該預計今年晚些時候會出現某種連續增長。

Well, maybe a little bit of texture there as Chuck talked about the range. Consumer PCs in the industry went negative in Q1 of last year, and commercial PCs went negative in Q2 of last year. So we are in quarter 4 and quarter 5, I should say, quarter 5 and quarter 4, respectively, consumer and commercial, and we've talked about ranges of 4 to 6.

好吧，當 Chuck 談到範圍時，可能會有一點質感。行業消費PC去年Q1出現負增長，商用PC去年Q2出現負增長。所以我們在第 4 季度和第 5 季度，我應該說，分別是第 5 季度和第 4 季度，消費者和商業，我們已經討論了 4 到 6 的範圍。

Thanks, everyone. Let's turn it over to Michael for a close.

感謝大家。讓我們把它交給邁克爾來結束。

Thanks, Rob. As you are all aware now, Tom has decided that it's time for him to retire from Dell. He will be leaving us at the end of Q2 after an incredible 26 years with the company and as our longest-serving CFO in company history. Since joining Dell in 1997, Tom has overseen every aspect of finance, guiding us through tremendous growth and through some extraordinary milestones, from the merger with EMC, to returning to the public markets, to spinning off Dell's stake in VMware. Tom, thank you for everything, and most of all, thank you for your friendship.

謝謝，羅布。眾所周知，湯姆已經決定是時候從戴爾退休了。在公司工作了令人難以置信的 26 年之後，他將在第二季度末離開我們，並且是我們公司歷史上任職時間最長的首席財務官。自 1997 年加入戴爾以來，Tom 一直負責財務的各個方面，帶領我們實現了巨大的增長並經歷了一些非凡的里程碑，從與 EMC 的合併到重返公開市場，再到剝離戴爾在 VMware 的股份。湯姆，感謝你所做的一切，最重要的是，感謝你的友誼。

With Tom's retirement, I'd like to welcome Yvonne McGill, currently, our Corporate Controller, as our new CFO effective day 1 of Q3 FY '24. Many of you already know Yvonne. She also joined Dell in 1997. Among other roles, Yvonne has been ISG CFO, Chief Accounting Officer and led our finance functions for our APJ and China business. And as our Corporate Controller, she has been responsible for a number of functions, including ISG, tax, treasury, accounting and Investor Relations since 2020. She is a proven finance leader, and we are all thrilled to have her as our next CFO.

隨著 Tom 的退休，我歡迎現任公司財務總監 Yvonne McGill 擔任我們的新首席財務官，從 24 財年第三季度的第一天開始生效。你們中的許多人已經認識伊馮娜。她還於 1997 年加入戴爾。除其他職位外，Yvonne 曾擔任 ISG 首席財務官、首席會計官，並領導我們亞太及日本地區和中國業務的財務職能。作為我們的公司財務總監，自 2020 年以來，她一直負責多項職能，包括 ISG、稅務、財務、會計和投資者關係。她是一位久經考驗的財務領導者，我們都很高興她能成為我們的下一任首席財務官。

Tom, Yvonne and the team will work closely to ensure a smooth transition. And I know you will all join me in congratulating them both.

Tom、Yvonne 和團隊將密切合作以確保平穩過渡。我知道你們都會和我一起祝賀他們倆。

To close the call, let me reiterate what you've heard from Tom, Jeff and Chuck. We have delivered strong performance over the last few years, and we did so again in FY '23. We delivered for our customers, drove share gains, generated strong profitability, accelerated our innovation agenda and executed against our capital return commitments.

最後，讓我重申一下您從 Tom、Jeff 和 Chuck 那裡聽到的內容。我們在過去幾年中取得了強勁的業績，我們在 23 財年再次做到了這一點。我們為客戶提供服務，推動股票收益，產生強勁的盈利能力，加快我們的創新議程並履行我們的資本回報承諾。

While the near-term demand environment is challenging, we expect it to improve as we move through the fiscal year. The quantity and value of data continues to explode, and the long-term trends are in our favor. Thank you for letting me join you today, and we look forward to seeing you all soon.

雖然近期需求環境充滿挑戰，但我們預計隨著本財年的推進，情況會有所改善。數據的數量和價值持續爆炸式增長，長期趨勢對我們有利。感謝你們讓我今天加入你們，我們期待很快見到你們。

Thanks. I'm just going to close off to thank everyone for joining us today. We've got a pretty active schedule over the course of the next 6 weeks with management and the investment community. And that begins with Morgan Stanley next week in San Francisco with both Chuck Whitten and Sam Burd. So we look forward to seeing everyone out there. Thanks a lot.

謝謝。我要結束了，感謝大家今天加入我們。在接下來的 6 週內，我們與管理層和投資界有一個非常活躍的時間表。這將從摩根士丹利下週在舊金山與查克·惠頓和山姆·伯德一起開始。所以我們期待與大家見面。多謝。

This concludes today's conference call. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect at this time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開連接。