戴爾 (DELL) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

該公司還專注於在第四季度減少營運資金並產生現金。該公司在本財年第三季度的強勁表現是由其基礎設施解決方案集團業務推動的。由於對服務器和存儲的強勁需求,該業務收入同比增長 12%。該公司的客戶解決方案部門業務也表現良好,自 2020 財年以來以 12% 的複合年增長率增長。該公司在過去 39 個季度中的 35 個季度獲得了商用 PC 單位份額。然而,該公司本季度的收入受到外彙和公司銷售成本下降等不利因素的影響。 Dell Technologies Inc. 是一家提供技術解決方案的公司。該公司報告了他們的非 GAAP 財務指標,這是一種衡量他們業績的方式,而不考慮某些可能扭曲他們結果的項目,以便更準確地描述他們公司的業績。本次會議涵蓋的一些主題包括收入、毛利率、營業費用、營業收入、淨收入和每股攤薄收益。公司的目標是向股東提供公司業績的最新信息,並為未來提供指導。

公司核心債務餘額為162億美元,核心槓桿率為1.6倍。該季度結束時現金和投資為 65 億美元,環比減少 6 億美元,主要原因是 8 億美元的資本回報。

展望未來,該公司預計第四季度收入為 23-240 億美元,中值下降 16%,ISG 持平。貨幣預計將對第四季度收入產生 500 個基點的影響。由於第四財季多了一周,運營費用預計將比上一季度增加 1.5 億美元,而利息和其他費用預計將增加 6000 萬美元。

該公司計劃繼續其平衡的資本配置方法,以編程方式回購股票以管理稀釋,同時保持機會主義的靈活性。它預計將在 2024 財年通過股息和股票回購向股東返還 40 億至 50 億美元。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the fiscal year 2023 Third Quarter Financial Results Conference Call for Dell Technologies, Inc. I'd like to inform all participants that this call is being recorded at the request of Dell Technologies. This broadcast is the copyrighted property of Dell Technologies Inc. Any rebroadcast of this information whole or part without prior written permission of Dell Technologies is prohibited. (Operator Instructions)

    女士們先生們,下午好,歡迎參加戴爾科技公司 2023 財年第三季度財務業績電話會議。我想通知所有與會者,本次電話會議是應戴爾科技公司的要求進行錄音的。此廣播是 Dell Technologies Inc. 的版權財產。未經 Dell Technologies 事先書面許可,禁止全部或部分轉播此信息。 (操作員說明)

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Rob Williams, Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Williams, you may begin.

    我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係主管 Rob Williams。威廉姆斯先生,您可以開始了。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • Thanks, everyone, for joining us. With me today are Jeff Clarke, Chuck Whitten, Tom Sweet and Tyler Johnson. Our earnings materials are available on our IR website, and I encourage you to review our materials and presentation which includes additional content to complement our discussion this afternoon. Guidance will be covered on today's call.

    謝謝大家加入我們。今天和我在一起的有傑夫·克拉克、查克·惠頓、湯姆·斯威特和泰勒·約翰遜。我們的收益材料可在我們的 IR 網站上找到,我鼓勵您查看我們的材料和演示文稿,其中包括補充我們今天下午討論的額外內容。今天的電話會議將涵蓋指導。

  • During this call, unless otherwise indicated, all references to financial measures refer to non-GAAP financial measures, including non-GAAP revenue, gross margin, operating expenses, operating income, net income and diluted earnings per share. A reconciliation of these measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in our web deck and our press release. Growth percentages refer to year-over-year change unless otherwise specified.

    在本次電話會議中,除非另有說明,否則所有提及的財務指標均指非 GAAP 財務指標,包括非 GAAP 收入、毛利率、運營支出、運營收入、淨收入和稀釋後每股收益。在我們的網絡平台和新聞稿中可以找到這些措施與其最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的對賬。除非另有說明,否則增長百分比指的是同比變化。

  • Statements made during this call that relate to future results and events are forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results and events could differ materially from those projected due to a number of risks and uncertainties which are discussed in our web deck and our SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

    本次電話會議中與未來結果和事件相關的聲明是基於當前預期的前瞻性聲明。由於我們的網絡平台和美國證券交易委員會文件中討論的許多風險和不確定性,實際結果和事件可能與預測的結果和事件存在重大差異。我們沒有義務更新我們的前瞻性陳述。

  • Now I'll turn it over to Chuck.

    現在我會把它交給查克。

  • Anthony Charles Whitten - Co-COO

    Anthony Charles Whitten - Co-COO

  • Thanks, Rob. We delivered very good results, including strong ISG revenue with record profitability and good CSG profitability despite the difficult demand environment that we highlighted in our last earnings call. The net of our disciplined execution was Q3 revenue of $24.7 billion, down 6% with record operating income of $2.4 billion and record diluted EPS of $2.30. ISG revenue was $9.6 billion, up 12%, while CSG was $13.8 billion, down 17%.

    謝謝,羅布。儘管我們在上次財報電話會議中強調了困難的需求環境,但我們取得了非常好的結果,包括強勁的 ISG 收入和創紀錄的盈利能力以及良好的 CSG 盈利能力。我們紀律嚴明的執行淨額為第三季度收入 247 億美元,下降 6%,營業收入達到創紀錄的 24 億美元,稀釋每股收益達到創紀錄的 2.30 美元。 ISG 收入為 96 億美元,增長 12%,而 CSG 收入為 138 億美元,下降 17%。

  • From a macro perspective, Q3 played out as we previewed last quarter. Soft underlying PC demand and slowing infrastructure demand. Though storage did hold up fairly well relative to servers with growth in multiple storage types, including high-end and PowerStore. Our Q3 performance underscores our strategic focus, the advantages of our model and our ability to deliver differentiated results in any market environment.

    從宏觀角度來看,第三季度的表現正如我們上季度所預料的那樣。疲軟的基礎 PC 需求和放緩的基礎設施需求。儘管隨著包括高端和 PowerStore 在內的多種存儲類型的增長,存儲相對於服務器的表現確實相當不錯。我們第三季度的業績突出了我們的戰略重點、我們模式的優勢以及我們在任何市場環境中提供差異化結果的能力。

  • Our unique sales model provides direct, real-time feedback from customers of all sizes and across geographies and industries, which allows us to see the demand environment shift faster than the rest of the industry. And as the demand environment changed, we reacted quickly and decisively, which showed in our results. We took actions to reduce costs, decreasing our operating expense 3% sequentially in Q2 and another 6% sequentially in Q3.

    我們獨特的銷售模式提供來自不同規模、不同地域和行業的客戶的直接、實時反饋,這使我們能夠比其他行業更快地看到需求環境的變化。隨著需求環境的變化,我們的反應迅速而果斷,這在我們的結果中得到了體現。我們採取了降低成本的措施,在第二季度將運營費用連續降低了 3%,在第三季度又連續降低了 6%。

  • We have now reduced quarterly operating expense by over $300 million since Q1. We reduced server backlog consistent with our Q2 commentary, and delivered strong profitability as our model allowed us to access component cost deflation faster than the rest of the industry. And we stayed focused on relative performance in the most profitable segments of the market. Despite some expected distortions in the PC market given elevated competitor backlog, we continue to gain commercial PC unit share in Q3 and have now gained share in 35 of the last 39 quarters. In ISG, we expect to extend our industry-leading share positions in servers and storage when Q3 IDC results are announced in December.

    自第一季度以來,我們現在已經將季度運營費用減少了 3 億多美元。我們減少了服務器積壓,與我們的第二季度評論一致,並提供了強勁的盈利能力,因為我們的模型使我們能夠比行業其他公司更快地進入組件成本通貨緊縮。我們一直專注於市場中利潤最高的部分的相對錶現。儘管由於競爭對手積壓增加,PC 市場預計會出現一些扭曲,但我們在第三季度繼續獲得商用 PC 單位份額,並且在過去 39 個季度中有 35 個季度獲得了份額。在 ISG 中,我們希望在 12 月公佈第三季度 IDC 結果時擴大我們在服務器和存儲領域的行業領先份額。

  • And we executed on all of the above without compromising our innovation agenda, with 30 infrastructure launches in the last 13 weeks, including 6 new Dell APEX offerings in strategic areas like multi-cloud, edge and subscription and as-a-Service. We're excited about the launch of Project Frontier, our initiative to deliver an edge operation software platform focused on unifying edge operations across infrastructure and applications for a broad set of industries.

    我們在不影響創新議程的情況下執行了上述所有工作,在過去 13 週內推出了 30 項基礎設施,包括在多雲、邊緣和訂閱以及即服務等戰略領域推出的 6 項新的戴爾 APEX 產品。我們對 Project Frontier 的推出感到興奮,這是我們提供邊緣操作軟件平台的倡議,專注於為廣泛的行業統一跨基礎設施和應用程序的邊緣操作。

  • And earlier today, we announced the availability of PowerFlex, our flagship software-defined storage solution on AWS. With the cloud-first design point, PowerFlex on AWS is the first of Dell's industry-leading storage offerings available in the public cloud as part of Project Alpine. Our effort to bring our industry-leading storage software to public cloud to provide multi-cloud data mobility and simplify data management.

    今天早些時候,我們宣布推出 PowerFlex,這是我們在 AWS 上的旗艦軟件定義存儲解決方案。憑藉雲優先設計點,AWS 上的 PowerFlex 是戴爾業界領先的存儲產品中的第一個,作為 Project Alpine 的一部分在公共雲中提供。我們努力將我們行業領先的存儲軟件引入公共雲,以提供多雲數據移動性和簡化數據管理。

  • It will enable customers to use Dell storage software capabilities and APIs wherever their data resides, without the need for purpose-built or specialized public cloud infrastructure. Our new Project Alpine related SaaS offerings will add to our growing portfolio of APEX solutions, while enabling our customers to harness the power of multi-cloud.

    它將使客戶能夠在數據所在的任何地方使用戴爾存儲軟件功能和 API,而無需專門構建或專門的公共雲基礎架構。我們新的 Project Alpine 相關 SaaS 產品將添加到我們不斷增長的 APEX 解決方案組合中,同時使我們的客戶能夠利用多雲的力量。

  • Stepping back, the near-term market remains challenged and uncertain. On one hand, we are seeing some customers delay IT purchases. Other customers continue to move ahead with Dell given the criticality of technology to their long-term competitiveness and a growing need to drive near-term productivity through IT. The world continues to digitally transform. Data continues to grow exponentially, and customers continue to look to technology to drive their business forward no matter the economic climate.

    退後一步,近期市場仍然充滿挑戰和不確定性。一方面,我們看到一些客戶推遲了 IT 採購。鑑於技術對其長期競爭力的重要性以及通過 IT 推動近期生產力的需求不斷增長,其他客戶繼續與戴爾一起前進。世界繼續進行數字化轉型。數據繼續呈指數級增長,無論經濟環境如何,客戶都繼續尋求技術來推動他們的業務向前發展。

  • As the market leader in commercial PCs and infrastructure, we are well positioned, whether a customer is seeking to drive growth, productivity and efficiencies or a combination. We're trusted advisers to our customers, and we have a business model that allows us to adjust quickly to meet their needs.

    作為商用 PC 和基礎設施領域的市場領導者,我們處於有利地位,無論客戶是在尋求推動增長、生產力和效率,還是兩者兼而有之。我們是客戶值得信賴的顧問,我們的商業模式使我們能夠快速調整以滿足他們的需求。

  • So we are very confident in our ability to adapt and deliver results despite the near-term uncertainty. Q3 was proof of our underlying advantages and ability to execute no matter the environment. As always, we'll continue to focus on what we can control, taking care of our customers, driving differentiated relative performance, delivering against our innovation agenda, managing our cost position, maintaining pricing discipline and building a unique and winning culture with our team.

    因此,儘管近期存在不確定性,但我們對我們適應和交付結果的能力非常有信心。第三季度證明了我們的潛在優勢和執行能力,無論環境如何。一如既往,我們將繼續專注於我們可以控制的事情,照顧我們的客戶,推動差異化的相對績效,實現我們的創新議程,管理我們的成本狀況,維持定價紀律並與我們的團隊建立獨特的成功文化.

  • This is the playbook that has served us well across multiple cycles and no matter the backdrop, we intend to accelerate our strategic position as we did in Q3.

    這是在多個週期中為我們提供良好服務的劇本,無論背景如何,我們都打算像第三季度那樣加快我們的戰略地位。

  • Now I'll turn it over to Tom for the financials.

    現在,我將把它交給 Tom 進行財務處理。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Chuck. I'm pleased with our Q3 P&L performance despite the tougher near-term demand environment. As Chuck mentioned, we highlighted the softening environment and slowing ISG demand in our Q2 earnings conversation and the third quarter generally played out as we expected, albeit with server demand velocity slowing a bit more than we anticipated. We continue to focus on executing our strategy to win in the consolidation and modernization of our core markets. And we have executed well over the last few years and again in Q3.

    謝謝,查克。儘管近期需求環境更加嚴峻,但我對我們第三季度的損益表現感到滿意。正如 Chuck 所提到的,我們在第二季度的收益對話中強調了疲軟的環境和放緩的 ISG 需求,第三季度的表現總體上符合我們的預期,儘管服務器需求速度的放緩幅度比我們預期的要大一些。我們繼續專注於執行我們的戰略,以贏得我們核心市場的整合和現代化。我們在過去幾年和第三季度的表現都很好。

  • In ISG, we've grown our revenue for 7 consecutive quarters and have grown our revenue at a 3% CAGR since fiscal year '20. We have been consistent structural share gainers in servers where we are #1, gaining 530 basis points over the last 5 years in mainstream server revenue per IDC. In storage, we are bigger than 2 and 3 combined. And with our refreshed storage portfolio, we have added to our #1 position, gaining share over the last 2 quarters and anticipate gaining share in both storage as well as servers again this quarter when IDC results come out in December.

    在 ISG,我們的收入連續 7 個季度增長,自 20 財年以來,我們的收入以 3% 的複合年增長率增長。在我們排名第一的服務器領域,我們一直保持結構性份額增長,在過去 5 年中,每個 IDC 的主流服務器收入增長了 530 個基點。在存儲方面,我們比 2 和 3 的總和還要大。憑藉更新後的存儲產品組合,我們的第一名地位進一步提升,在過去兩個季度中獲得了市場份額,預計本季度 IDC 12 月公佈業績時我們將再次獲得存儲和服務器市場份額。

  • Our CSG business has grown at a 12% CAGR since fiscal year '20. As Chuck mentioned earlier, we have gained commercial PC unit share in 35 of the last 39 quarters, including Q3.

    自 20 財年以來,我們的 CSG 業務以 12% 的複合年增長率增長。正如 Chuck 之前提到的,我們在過去 39 個季度中的 35 個季度獲得了商用 PC 單位份額,包括第三季度。

  • Turning to our Q3 results. We delivered revenue of $24.7 billion, down 6% with strong ISG performance, particularly in servers. We reduced total backlog by $1.2 billion sequentially during the quarter with CSG backlog now in a more normal range and ISG backlog slightly elevated year-on-year but substantially reduced from the beginning of the quarter.

    轉向我們的第三季度業績。我們實現了 247 億美元的收入,下降了 6%,ISG 表現強勁,尤其是在服務器方面。我們在本季度連續減少了 12 億美元的總積壓訂單,CSG 積壓訂單現在處於更正常的範圍內,ISG 積壓訂單同比略有增加,但比本季度初大幅減少。

  • Profitability was strong in Q3. Gross margin was $5.9 billion, up 2% and 23.7% of revenue. Gross margin percentage was up 2 points, primarily due to a favorable mix shift to ISG and a decrease in our cost of goods sold due to certain components turning deflationary along with declining logistics costs. FX remained a headwind and impacted revenue by approximately 420 basis points. Q3 operating expense was $3.5 billion, down 8% and 14.1% of revenue as we slowed hiring and reduced discretionary costs given the current macro environment.

    第三季度的盈利能力很強。毛利率為 59 億美元,分別增長 2% 和 23.7% 的收入。毛利率上升了 2 個百分點,這主要是由於向 ISG 的有利組合轉變以及由於某些組件通貨緊縮以及物流成本下降導致我們的商品銷售成本下降。外匯仍然是一個不利因素,對收入產生了大約 420 個基點的影響。第三季度的運營費用為 35 億美元,分別下降 8% 和 14.1% 的收入,因為我們在當前的宏觀環境下放慢了招聘速度並降低了可自由支配的成本。

  • As a result, operating income was a record $2.4 billion, up 22% and 9.6% of revenue. Our year-to-date tax rate decreased to 18.2%, primarily due to geographic mix of income. Q3 net income was $1.7 billion, up 30%, primarily driven by growth in operating income and a decline in interest expense due to our lower debt balances. Fully diluted earnings per share was a record $2.30, up 39%, with diluted share count decreasing sequentially to 743 million shares as a result of share repurchases in Q3.

    因此,營業收入達到創紀錄的 24 億美元,分別增長 22% 和 9.6%。我們年初至今的稅率降至 18.2%,主要是由於收入的地域組合。第三季度淨收入為 17 億美元,增長 30%,這主要是由於營業收入增長和債務餘額減少導致的利息支出下降。完全稀釋每股收益達到創紀錄的 2.30 美元,增長 39%,由於第三季度的股票回購,稀釋後的股票數量連續減少至 7.43 億股。

  • Our recurring revenue is approximately $5.4 billion a quarter, up 11%. Our remaining performance obligations, or RPO, is approximately $39 billion, down year-over-year due to a decline in backlog, partially offset by an increase in deferred revenue.

    我們每季度的經常性收入約為 54 億美元,增長 11%。由於積壓訂單減少,我們的剩餘履約義務或 RPO 約為 390 億美元,同比下降,部分被遞延收入的增加所抵消。

  • Turning to our business units. In ISG, Q3 revenue was $9.6 billion, up 12% driven by a reduction in our server backlog, consistent with our Q2 call commentary.

    轉向我們的業務部門。在 ISG 中,第三季度的收入為 96 億美元,增長 12%,這是由於我們的服務器積壓減少,這與我們對第二季度的電話評論一致。

  • Servers and networking revenue was $5.2 billion, up 14%, and storage revenue was $4.4 billion, up 11%. As mentioned, we did see softening unit demand in servers, somewhat offset by higher average selling prices, given richer configurations driven by customers running more complex workloads. ISG operating income came in at a record $1.4 billion or 14.3% of revenue which was up 390 basis points as we benefited from scale with lower operating expenses and pricing discipline.

    服務器和網絡收入為 52 億美元,增長 14%,存儲收入為 44 億美元,增長 11%。如前所述,我們確實看到服務器的單位需求疲軟,但由於客戶運行更複雜的工作負載而導致更豐富的配置,這在一定程度上被更高的平均售價所抵消。 ISG 營業收入達到創紀錄的 14 億美元,佔收入的 14.3%,增長了 390 個基點,因為我們受益於規模、較低的運營費用和定價紀律。

  • Our Client Solutions Group revenue was down 17% to $13.8 billion, primarily due to underlying softness in both commercial and consumer demand. Commercial revenue was $10.7 billion, down 13% and consumer revenue was $3 billion, down 29%. Average selling prices trended higher in both commercial and consumer as customers bought PCs with richer configurations. CSG operating income was $1.1 billion, down 7% primarily due to scaling partially offset by stronger gross margin percentage and lower operating expenses.

    我們的客戶解決方案部門收入下降 17% 至 138 億美元,這主要是由於商業和消費者需求的潛在疲軟。商業收入為 107 億美元,下降 13%,消費者收入為 30 億美元,下降 29%。隨著客戶購買配置更豐富的個人電腦,商業和消費者的平均售價都有上漲趨勢。 CSG 營業收入為 11 億美元,下降 7%,這主要是由於規模擴大被較高的毛利率和較低的營業費用部分抵消。

  • CSG operating income was 7.7% of revenue. Dell Financial Services originations were $2.3 billion, up 17% with strength across geographies and DFS ended the quarter with $13.8 billion in assets. We have historically seen stronger originations and more recently, an increasing interest in subscription models as the macro environment slows.

    南玻營業收入佔收入的7.7%。戴爾金融服務發起的資產為 23 億美元,增長 17%,各地區實力強勁,DFS 在本季度結束時擁有 138 億美元的資產。從歷史上看,我們看到了更強大的起源,最近,隨著宏觀環境放緩,人們對訂閱模式的興趣越來越大。

  • Turning to our cash flow and balance sheet. Our cash flow from operations was approximately $400 million in Q3 and is $3.9 billion on a trailing 12-month basis. Q3 cash flow was helped by profitability but offset by the sequential revenue decline in the P&L and a use in working capital. Within working capital, inventory was up sequentially as we strategically accelerated purchases of some key components as we continue to navigate through supply chain dynamics. Improving working capital efficiency and reducing inventory remains a priority.

    轉向我們的現金流量和資產負債表。我們的運營現金流在第三季度約為 4 億美元,過去 12 個月為 39 億美元。第三季度現金流受到盈利能力的幫助,但被損益表中連續的收入下降和營運資金的使用所抵消。在營運資金方面,隨著我們繼續在供應鏈動態中導航,我們戰略性地加快了對一些關鍵部件的採購,庫存依次增加。提高營運資金效率和減少庫存仍然是當務之急。

  • Our core debt balance is $16.2 billion, and our core leverage ratio is 1.6x. We ended the quarter with $6.5 billion in cash and investments, down $600 million sequentially, principally due to $800 million in capital returns.

    我們的核心債務餘額為 162 億美元,核心槓桿率為 1.6 倍。本季度結束時,我們的現金和投資為 65 億美元,環比減少 6 億美元,這主要是由於 8 億美元的資本回報。

  • Turning to capital allocation. We repurchased 16.3 million shares of stock in Q3 for $609 million and paid $238 million in dividends. In addition to our $1 billion annual dividend, since the beginning of our current share repurchase program, we have bought back 70.3 million shares for $3.36 billion. Going forward, we will continue our balanced capital allocation approach, repurchasing shares programmatically to manage dilution while maintaining flexibility to be opportunistic.

    轉向資本配置。我們在第三季度以 6.09 億美元的價格回購了 1630 萬股股票,並支付了 2.38 億美元的股息。除了我們 10 億美元的年度股息外,自我們當前的股票回購計劃開始以來,我們已經以 33.6 億美元的價格回購了 7030 萬股股票。展望未來,我們將繼續採用平衡的資本配置方法,以編程方式回購股票以管理稀釋,同時保持機會主義的靈活性。

  • Turning to guidance. Considering the demand environment, we expect Q4 revenue between $23 billion and $24 billion, down 16% at the midpoint with ISG roughly flat. Similar to Q3, currency continues to be a headwind for us. We are expecting a roughly 500 basis point impact to Q4 revenue. We continue to be focused on managing costs. However, we do expect to see a roughly $150 million OpEx increase sequentially given the extra week in our fiscal Q4.

    轉向指導。考慮到需求環境,我們預計第四季度收入在 230 億美元至 240 億美元之間,中間值下降 16%,ISG 大致持平。與第三季度類似,貨幣對我們來說仍然是一個不利因素。我們預計第四季度收入將受到大約 500 個基點的影響。我們繼續專注於管理成本。然而,鑑於我們第四財季的額外一周,我們確實預計運營支出將依次增加約 1.5 億美元。

  • We expect our interest and other expense to be up $60 million sequentially driven by interest rate volatility and the impact on our derivatives portfolio. For our non-GAAP tax rate, you should assume 22% at the midpoint, which reflects a 19% plus or minus 100 basis point rate for the full year. We expect our diluted share count to be roughly 730 million to 735 million shares. Netting this out, we expect diluted earnings per share in the range of $1.50 to $1.80, down 4% at the midpoint.

    由於利率波動和對我們衍生品投資組合的影響,我們預計我們的利息和其他費用將連續增加 6000 萬美元。對於我們的非 GAAP 稅率,您應該假設中點為 22%,這反映了全年 19% 上下 100 個基點的稅率。我們預計我們的稀釋後股份數量約為 7.3 億至 7.35 億股。扣除這一因素後,我們預計每股攤薄收益在 1.50 美元至 1.80 美元之間,中間值下降 4%。

  • I recognize that many of you have questions about our view on fiscal year '24. It's still early in our annual planning process. However, I'll frame our current thinking. We expect ongoing global macroeconomic factors, including slowing economic growth, inflation, rising interest rates and currency pressure to weigh on our customers. And as a result, their IT spending intentions even as they continue to digitize their businesses. These dynamics are creating a broader range of financial outcomes for our upcoming fiscal year, particularly as we think about the second half of the year. With what we know today, it's likely next year's revenue is below historical sequentials using our Q4 guidance as a starting point.

    我知道你們中的許多人對我們對 24 財年的看法有疑問。我們的年度計劃流程仍處於早期階段。但是,我將構建我們當前的想法。我們預計持續的全球宏觀經濟因素,包括經濟增長放緩、通貨膨脹、利率上升和貨幣壓力,將給我們的客戶帶來壓力。因此,即使他們繼續將業務數字化,他們的 IT 支出意圖也會受到影響。這些動態正在為我們即將到來的財政年度創造更廣泛的財務成果,尤其是在我們考慮下半年的時候。據我們今天所知,明年的收入很可能低於以我們的第四季度指導為起點的歷史序列。

  • In closing, we delivered strong third quarter financial results. We have strong conviction in the growth of our TAM over the long term even though some customers have paused purchases in the near term, and we are committed to delivering our value creation framework with a revenue CAGR of 3% to 4%, a diluted earnings per share CAGR of 6% plus and a net income to adjusted free cash flow conversion of 100% or better.

    最後,我們交付了強勁的第三季度財務業績。儘管一些客戶在短期內暫停了購買,但我們對 TAM 的長期增長充滿信心,我們致力於提供我們的價值創造框架,收入複合年增長率為 3% 至 4%,攤薄收益每股複合年增長率超過 6%,調整後的自由現金流轉換為 100% 或更高的淨收入。

  • Since fiscal year '20, our revenue has grown at an 8% CAGR, our diluted earnings per share has grown at nearly a 20% CAGR, and we have exceeded our net income to adjusted free cash flow target in each of the last 3 fiscal years. We have also committed to return 40% to 60% of our adjusted free cash flow to our shareholders over time and have returned $4.1 billion of capital to our shareholders over the last 12 months through share repurchase and dividends.

    自 20 財年以來,我們的收入以 8% 的複合年增長率增長,稀釋後的每股收益以近 20% 的複合年增長率增長,並且在過去 3 個財年中,我們的淨收入都超過了調整後的自由現金流量目標年。我們還承諾隨著時間的推移將調整後自由現金流的 40% 至 60% 返還給股東,並在過去 12 個月內通過股票回購和派息向股東返還了 41 億美元的資本。

  • We will continue to be disciplined in how we are managing the business in our financial posture in this complex macro environment, focusing on what we can control and helping our customers along their digital journey.

    在這個複雜的宏觀環境中,我們將繼續嚴格按照財務狀況管理業務,專注於我們可以控制的事情,並在客戶的數字化旅程中為他們提供幫助。

  • Now I'll turn it back to Rob to begin Q&A.

    現在我將把它轉回 Rob 開始問答。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • Thanks, Tom. Let's get to Q&A. We ask that each participant ask 1 question to allow us to get to as many of you as possible. Let's go to the first question.

    謝謝,湯姆。讓我們開始問答吧。我們要求每位參與者提出 1 個問題,以便我們盡可能多地接觸到你們。讓我們回到第一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

    (操作員說明)我們將與 Cowen and Company 一起回答 Krish Sankar 的第一個問題。

  • Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • And Chuck, I'm just kind of curious, you mentioned about how the IT spending is softening. What do you see across the ecosystem? Is it across all enterprises, the large and smaller ones? And within that, where do you think they're focusing their budgets on right now? Is it more server storage or software? Just kind of curious, any thoughts you can give on the IT spending environment (inaudible)

    查克,我只是有點好奇,你提到了 IT 支出是如何減少的。您在整個生態系統中看到了什麼?是否適用於所有企業,無論大小?其中,您認為他們現在將預算集中在哪裡?是更多的服務器存儲還是軟件?只是有點好奇,您對 IT 支出環境有什麼想法(聽不清)

  • Anthony Charles Whitten - Co-COO

    Anthony Charles Whitten - Co-COO

  • Yes. Thanks, Krish. Let me give you a little bit of the texture that we're seeing. But maybe let me start by just highlighting, look, we executed very well in what was a very dynamic environment. As we've highlighted, our principal objective in this environment is to deliver relative performance and share gain. And in Q3, we did that across client server and storage, and we delivered very good profitability.

    是的。謝謝,克里什。讓我給你一點我們看到的紋理。但也許讓我首先強調一下,看,我們在一個非常動態的環境中執行得非常好。正如我們所強調的那樣,我們在這種環境下的主要目標是提供相對績效和份額收益。在第三季度,我們在客戶端服務器和存儲上做到了這一點,我們實現了非常好的盈利能力。

  • So while we're not going to get into specific demand numbers today, let me offer some texture on the environment that we're seeing. First, I would just say that the CSG demand environment remains challenged with, as you saw in our results, consumer weaker than commercial. We saw slowing server growth. As Tom highlighted in our prepared remarks, it was probably a little bit worse than we anticipated at the time of our Q2 earnings call. And so as we said, Q3 server revenue growth of 14% was aided by server backlog reduction and storage fared better.

    因此,雖然我們今天不打算討論具體的需求數字,但讓我提供一些關於我們所看到的環境的紋理。首先,我只想說 CSG 需求環境仍然面臨挑戰,正如您在我們的結果中看到的那樣,消費者弱於商業。我們看到服務器增長放緩。正如湯姆在我們準備好的評論中強調的那樣,這可能比我們在第二季度財報電話會議上預期的要差一點。正如我們所說,第三季度服務器收入增長 14% 得益於服務器積壓減少和存儲表現更好。

  • It's ultimately not immune to the broader dynamics we're seeing across customers, but we saw growth across multiple storage categories, including the high-end HCI and PowerStore. To your direct question about texture underpinning that, those dynamics were largely consistent across geographies, we'd say, verticals as well and customer size. There's probably a couple of exceptions we would call out. One would be China, which had a much more pronounced weakness last quarter.

    它最終不能免受我們在客戶中看到的更廣泛動態的影響,但我們看到了多個存儲類別的增長,包括高端 HCI 和 PowerStore。對於你關於支持這一點的紋理的直接問題,這些動態在不同地區基本上是一致的,我們會說,垂直以及客戶規模。我們可能會提出一些例外情況。一個是中國,上個季度的疲軟更為明顯。

  • And we would highlight the energy sector, the U.S. government sector and then medium business generally globally as performing better relative to the rest of the business. And the customer feedback is very similar to what we described in Q2, very cautious and deliberate behavior in the face of what's a lot of economic -- macroeconomic dynamics out there. So we're hearing reassessment of budgets, reprioritization, excuse me, of spending and customers buying effectively for just their immediate needs. So net, I would say Q3 was a continuation of the trends that we called out during our Q2 earnings call.

    我們會強調能源部門、美國政府部門以及全球範圍內的中型企業相對於其他業務的表現更好。客戶反饋與我們在第二季度所描述的非常相似,面對大量的經濟-宏觀經濟動態,他們的行為非常謹慎和深思熟慮。因此,我們正在聽到對預算的重新評估、重新確定優先級、支出和客戶有效購買以滿足他們的即時需求。所以,我想說第三季度是我們在第二季度財報電話會議上提出的趨勢的延續。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from David Vogt with UBS.

    我們將接受來自瑞銀的 David Vogt 的下一個問題。

  • David Vogt - Analyst

    David Vogt - Analyst

  • Tom, maybe this is for you. Can you kind of elaborate on your earlier remarks about the framework for '24. Just to clarify, when you talk about -- obviously, there's a lot of moving pieces, but how do you think about the historical sequential moves as we move through the year. So are you trying to communicate that we basically start with Q4 and then take sort of a normal sequential pattern over the last, let's say, 2 to 3 years and sort of maybe haircut that a little bit given the uncertainty? Just trying to maybe level set since my line dropped a little bit.

    湯姆,也許這是給你的。您能否詳細說明一下您之前關於 24.0 框架的評論?只是為了澄清一下,當你談論 - 顯然,有很多移動的部分,但你如何看待我們在這一年中移動的歷史順序移動。那麼你是否試圖傳達我們基本上從第四季度開始,然後在過去,比方說,2 到 3 年採取某種正常的順序模式,並且考慮到不確定性,可能會剪掉一點點?因為我的線掉了一點,所以只是想調整水平。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • David, happy to sort of elaborate on that. Obviously, as we look at the environment, it's pretty early in our planning process from a fiscal year '24 perspective. clearly, the landscape and the dynamics are complex, and there's a high degree of complexity out there, whether it's around inflation or interest rates, what's going on with FX, global growth in general, supply chain, geopolitical. I could probably go on, but you get the point that at this point, there's as we look at it, there's a pretty wide range of financial outcomes depending upon how some of these things move and change on us. And in particular, I would say the back half of next year continues to be -- has a fair amount of complexity.

    大衛,很樂意對此進行詳細說明。顯然,當我們審視環境時,從 24 財年的角度來看,我們的規劃過程還處於早期階段。顯然,形勢和動態是複雜的,並且存在高度的複雜性,無論是圍繞通貨膨脹還是利率,外匯、全球總體增長、供應鏈、地緣政治的情況。我可能會繼續,但你明白這一點,正如我們所看到的,有相當廣泛的財務結果取決於其中一些事情如何在我們身上移動和改變。特別是,我想說明年下半年仍然很複雜。

  • So Chuck mentioned that we do see customers with a bit of cautiousness in their spend right now. I think that's pretty evident. And so that said, we're going to focus on what we can control, meaning we'll focus on ensuring we help our customers as well as ensuring we manage the P&L properly, both -- and be tight on both spending and customer satisfaction.

    所以 Chuck 提到我們確實看到客戶現在對他們的支出有點謹慎。我認為這很明顯。所以說,我們將專注於我們可以控制的事情,這意味著我們將專注於確保我們幫助我們的客戶以及確保我們正確管理損益表,同時嚴格控制支出和客戶滿意度.

  • And just a reminder, I would highlight that from a spend perspective, we've been focused on spend now for a number of quarters as we have restrained hiring and put other cost control measures in place. But having said all of that, what I was trying to elaborate while I don't want to get into exactly what next year looks like because we're still working our way through it. We do think it's going to -- it's got some complexity and some challenges to it.

    提醒一下,我要強調的是,從支出的角度來看,由於我們限制了招聘並採取了其他成本控制措施,我們現在幾個季度一直專注於支出。但說了這麼多,我想詳細說明的是,雖然我不想確切地了解明年的情況,因為我們仍在努力解決它。我們確實認為它會 - 它有一些複雜性和一些挑戰。

  • And as a result of that, if you took sort of the midpoint of our guide and then ran historic -- normal historical sequential, say, over a couple of -- 2-year historicals and maybe haircut those a bit, I think you're going to be in the ballpark of where what our current thinking is, recognizing that's going to continue to evolve and change over the coming months.

    因此,如果你採用我們指南的中點,然後運行歷史 - 正常的歷史順序,比如說,超過幾個 - 2 年的歷史,並且可能會剪掉一些,我認為你'我們將大致了解我們當前的想法,並認識到這將在未來幾個月內繼續發展和變化。

  • Maybe the other data point to help you triangulate on that is if you look at P&L revenue growth in the back half of fiscal '23. So obviously, the minus 6 that we just printed for Q3, at the midpoint, minus 16 of our Q4 guide sort of points to a minus 10, minus 11 sort of growth rate, and that's probably something you ought to think about as you do that math.

    也許另一個可以幫助您進行三角測量的數據點是,如果您查看 23 財年後半期的損益收入增長。很明顯,我們剛剛為第三季度打印的負 6,在中點,第四季度指南的負 16 有點指向負 10,負 11 的增長率,這可能是你應該考慮的事情那個數學。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Tim Long with Barclays.

    我們將在巴克萊銀行接受 Tim Long 的下一個問題。

  • Timothy Patrick Long - MD and Senior Technology Hardware & Networking Analyst

    Timothy Patrick Long - MD and Senior Technology Hardware & Networking Analyst

  • I was hoping to dig a little deeper into CSG. Obviously, in the guide, that sounds like it's a little bit more challenged of the market. I think you mentioned ASPs were up in this Q3. So can you talk a little bit about kind of where we are with channel inventory in commercial and consumer? What you see going on in the pricing and what impact that will have in margin? And maybe if you could just throw in what's going on with your backlog. I'm sure it's being worked down as well. It's probably multiple parter there, but I think you get the gist.

    我希望更深入地了解 CSG。顯然,在指南中,這聽起來像是對市場更具挑戰性。我想你提到了第三季度的平均售價。那麼你能談談我們在商業和消費者渠道庫存方面的情況嗎?您在定價中看到了什麼?這會對利潤率產生什麼影響?也許如果你能把你的積壓情況告訴你。我相信它也正在被解決。那裡可能有多個合作夥伴,但我認為您明白了要點。

  • Anthony Charles Whitten - Co-COO

    Anthony Charles Whitten - Co-COO

  • Yes, Tim, there's a lot in there. Let me start to unpack it and we'll probably double or triple team this one. So look, obviously, it's a challenging PC market backdrop. So maybe I'll just start with our current internal estimates for this year, which I think we shared on our last Q2 call of sort of 280 million to 290 million industry units. That's still our estimate as we go into Q4. And that implies sort of a mid double-digit decline in units year-over-year.

    是的,蒂姆,裡面有很多東西。讓我開始拆箱,我們可能會雙人或三人組這個。所以看,很明顯,這是一個充滿挑戰的 PC 市場背景。所以也許我會從我們目前對今年的內部估計開始,我認為我們在上次第二季度電話會議上分享了 2.8 億至 2.9 億個行業單位。這仍然是我們進入第四季度時的估計。這意味著單位數量同比下降了兩位數。

  • And I think that would be the single largest percentage decline in recent history. You'd have to go back to 2015 to see something sharper. So that's the reality of the backdrop today. As I highlighted, commercial is holding up better than consumer, and that's clearly consistent with long-term industry trends. Commercial PCs, excluding Chrome, tend to be the more durable portion of the market. along with premium consumer and gaming, and that's where we've been focused.

    我認為這將是近期歷史上最大的單一百分比下降。你必須回到 2015 年才能看到更清晰的東西。這就是今天背景的現實。正如我強調的那樣,商業比消費者表現得更好,這顯然符合長期行業趨勢。商用 PC(不包括 Chrome)往往是市場上更耐用的部分。以及高端消費者和遊戲,這就是我們一直關注的領域。

  • And so that's the dynamic that we see right now. As expected in that environment, from what we've seen, channel inventories remain elevated. We see promotional activity to sort of move units through distribution in particular. And as I said, customers are sort of waiting for -- to purchase for their immediate needs in this environment. In terms of pricing, you mentioned ASPs.

    這就是我們現在看到的動態。正如我們所看到的那樣,在那種環境下,渠道庫存仍然很高。我們看到促銷活動特別是通過分銷對移動單位進行分類。正如我所說,客戶正在等待——在這種環境下購買以滿足他們的即時需求。在定價方面,您提到了 ASP。

  • Look, pricing has remained relatively stable across our businesses. If I stay on PCs for a moment, there's a number of factors. Clearly, in this demand environment, we've seen a more competitive pricing environment. Consumer was the first clearly to see that pressure a couple of quarters ago, and it remains very competitive, and we saw the pricing environment get even more aggressive as the quarter progressed.

    看,我們業務的定價一直保持相對穩定。如果我在個人電腦上停留片刻,有很多因素。顯然,在這種需求環境下,我們看到了更具競爭力的定價環境。幾個季度前,消費者是第一個清楚地看到這種壓力的人,而且競爭仍然非常激烈,而且隨著季度的進展,我們看到定價環境變得更加激進。

  • I would call commercial also as very, very competitive right now given the slowdown we were describing. We've seen more aggressive pricing, particularly in the largest accounts as the quarter progressed. And so that's the backdrop, as you can imagine, from a supply chain standpoint, supply and demand are -- where they were out of balance last year, we're now on more standard lead times across the portfolio, and we're really in a position where what we sell is what we ship in any given quarter, and that's the dynamic in CSG.

    鑑於我們所描述的經濟放緩,我認為現在商業也非常非常有競爭力。隨著本季度的進展,我們看到了更激進的定價,尤其是在最大的客戶中。所以這就是背景,正如你可以想像的那樣,從供應鏈的角度來看,供需是——去年他們失衡的地方,我們現在在整個產品組合中的交貨時間更標準,而且我們真的在我們銷售的位置就是我們在任何給定季度發貨的位置,這就是 CSG 的動態。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

    我們將接受摩根大通 Samik Chatterjee 的下一個問題。

  • Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

    Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

  • Yes. No, I guess if I can just talk about the sort of initial thoughts that you provided on fiscal '24 and understand some of the challenges and headwinds on the top line. But -- maybe if you can talk about what you're thinking in terms of the sustainability of the gross margin, particularly I'm assuming some of the mix impact carries over on ISG versus CSG. And you've had a couple of quarters of sequential decline in OpEx here. But as you sort of look forward, how are you trying to align your cost structure to that sort of demand environment that you're thinking of? And sort of what are the puts and takes when we think about the rest of the P&L in fiscal '24?

    是的。不,我想我是否可以談談你在 24 財年提供的那種初步想法,並了解頂線的一些挑戰和逆風。但是——也許如果你能談談你在毛利率可持續性方面的想法,特別是我假設一些混合影響會延續到 ISG 和 CSG 上。而且你在這裡的 OpEx 連續下降了幾個季度。但是當您展望未來時,您將如何嘗試使您的成本結構與您正在考慮的那種需求環境保持一致?當我們考慮 24 財年的其餘損益表時,看跌期權和買單是什麼?

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Samik, look, I don't want to get into talking through every line item. I mean, we gave you some early thinking just so you guys sort of think your way through what the P&L dynamics at a top line might look like. I'd highlight a couple of things though, right? So first, as it relates to gross margin stability and our OpEx, look, we'll work our way through what margin dynamics will look like. We do expect right now that component costs are deflationary in the first half of next year with what we know today.

    是的。 Samik,聽著,我不想討論每個項目。我的意思是,我們給了你們一些早期的想法,這樣你們就可以通過頂線的 P&L 動態來思考自己的方式。不過,我會強調幾件事,對嗎?因此,首先,因為它與毛利率穩定性和我們的運營支出有關,看,我們將通過我們的方式研究利潤率動態。根據我們今天所知,我們現在確實預計明年上半年零部件成本會出現通貨緊縮。

  • We do think that the back half potentially may change just given some of the supply-demand balances that are out there as we work our way through the year. Obviously, in a declining demand environment, if there is a little bit of ASP pressure, which we would expect that we might see next year. However, I do think that if you look at our mix of products and where we're focused on end markets, we've got, whether it's due to configuration or attach rates in the client space or the fact that our servers that we're shipping have a thicker content rate from a memory perspective, those should all be helpful as well.

    我們確實認為,考慮到我們全年工作時存在的一些供需平衡,後半部分可能會發生變化。顯然,在需求下降的環境下,如果 ASP 有一點壓力,我們預計明年可能會出現這種情況。但是,我確實認為,如果您查看我們的產品組合以及我們專注於終端市場的地方,我們就會發現,無論是由於客戶端空間中的配置或附加率,還是我們的服務器從內存的角度來看,重新運輸的內容率更高,這些也應該有所幫助。

  • From an OpEx per -- so margins, I think we'll have to work our way through. OpEx, look, I think we've taken cost actions that have demonstrated the fact that we can control OpEx. And if anything, that we're very much focused on how do you manage your way through a complex environment like this, we will adjust our spend targets and our cost envelopes as appropriate to manage the P&L. So I feel pretty confident in our ability to do so. The actions we've taken already you can see them in the P&L, and we'll continue to work our way through that. So look, I think it's early to start talking full P&L at this point. Again, I just wanted to make sure you guys have some context around top line as we see it right now.

    從每個運營支出 - 所以利潤率,我認為我們必須努力完成。 OpEx,看,我認為我們採取的成本行動已經證明我們可以控制 OpEx。如果有的話,我們非常關注您如何在這樣的複雜環境中管理自己的方式,我們將適當調整我們的支出目標和成本範圍以管理損益。所以我對我們這樣做的能力很有信心。我們已經採取的行動你可以在損益表中看到,我們將繼續努力。所以看,我認為現在開始談論完整的損益表還為時過早。同樣,我只是想確保你們對我們現在看到的頂線有一些了解。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

    我們將接受 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani 的下一個問題。

  • Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • I guess I was really hoping you could talk a bit more about the ISG side and the performance this quarter. Is there a way to understand and look at ISG in aggregate or maybe even server and storage, how much of this growth is backlog versus end demand? And it sounds like the end demand is weaker (inaudible) goes 2 buckets up. And then Tom, I think you mentioned the OpEx headwind or the OpEx impact from the extra week in Q4. I could have missed this, but could you just tell us what the revenue benefit in Q4 as well from extra week.

    我想我真的希望你能多談談 ISG 方面和本季度的表現。有沒有一種方法可以理解和看待 ISG 的整體甚至服務器和存儲,這種增長中有多少是積壓與最終需求?聽起來最終需求較弱(聽不清)上升了 2 個桶。然後湯姆,我想你提到了第四季度額外一周的 OpEx 逆風或 OpEx 影響。我可能錯過了這一點,但你能告訴我們第四季度以及額外一周的收入收益是多少嗎?

  • Anthony Charles Whitten - Co-COO

    Anthony Charles Whitten - Co-COO

  • Yes. Amit, I mean, maybe I'll jump in on the business. I'm not sure I have a ton to add to our prior answers other than to say, look, the server business, we saw slowing server growth. We had hinted at that -- not even hinted at that, stated that in Q2 and had anticipated coming into the quarter, I would say, look, it worsened over the course of the quarter vis-a-vis our Q2 earnings call.

    是的。阿米特,我的意思是,也許我會參與進來。除了說,看,服務器業務,我們看到服務器增長放緩之外,我不確定我是否有很多要添加到我們之前的答案中。我們已經暗示過 - 甚至沒有暗示過,表示在第二季度並且預計進入本季度,我會說,看,相對於我們的第二季度收益電話會議,它在本季度的過程中惡化了。

  • And therefore, our server revenue growth of 14% on the P&L was aided by server backlog reduction. And we would characterize server backlog is now roughly in its normal range. Storage is a bit of a different story. It fared better. We saw growth across multiple storage categories, high-end HCI, PowerStore, I would say storage backlog remains somewhat elevated relative to historical norms given the larger business we're in. And so a little bit of different dynamics across server and storage, but all in all, a continuation of the trends that we saw in Q2.

    因此,服務器積壓減少有助於我們的服務器收入增長 14%。我們將描述服務器積壓現在大致在其正常範圍內。存儲有點不同。它表現得更好。我們看到了多個存儲類別、高端 HCI、PowerStore 的增長,我想說的是,考慮到我們所從事的業務規模更大,存儲積壓相對於歷史標準仍然有所增加。因此,服務器和存儲之間存在一些不同的動態,但是總而言之,這是我們在第二季度看到的趨勢的延續。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. As it relates to Q4, there is an extra week there given the dynamics of our fiscal year. The any impact of revenue/margin, and the results are already -- we've already embedded that in our guide. Obviously, if you think about an extra week, there is some level of incremental transactional demand that you get from some of our more transactional businesses, but a big majority of our business is also project and bid based, which doesn't really get impacted by an extra week end of quarter. So our guide develops all of those above.

    是的。與第四季度相關,考慮到我們財政年度的動態,那裡還有一周的時間。收入/利潤的任何影響,以及結果已經——我們已經將其嵌入我們的指南中。顯然,如果你考慮額外一周,你會從我們的一些交易性更強的業務中獲得一定程度的增量交易需求,但我們的大部分業務也是基於項目和投標的,這並沒有真正受到影響在季度結束時增加一周。因此,我們的指南開發了上述所有內容。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.

    我們將接受 Aaron Rakers 和 Wells Fargo 的下一個問題。

  • Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

    Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

  • I want to go back a little bit to the margin profile and maybe understand the dynamics of deflationary component costs. And how quickly you're being able to capture that in your server business? I guess in the context of just thinking about the pressure on the model, how do we think about the sustainability of that operating margin given very strong performance this last quarter in terms of ISG in that context.

    我想稍微回顧一下利潤率概況,也許可以了解通貨緊縮成分成本的動態。您能以多快的速度在您的服務器業務中捕捉到這一點?我想在考慮模型壓力的背景下,鑑於上個季度 ISG 在這種情況下的強勁表現,我們如何考慮營業利潤率的可持續性。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Aaron, it's -- let me sort of try and unpack that for you a bit, right? So look, as Chuck has already highlighted what we saw from a pricing environment perspective. Obviously, we talked about the fact in Q2 -- in our Q2 call that to the extent that we saw that we're in a component cost deflationary environment, we tend to do reasonably well from a margin perspective, given that we don't move pricing as much as costs come down or the pacing of that is different.

    亞倫,它是——讓我試著為你解壓一下,對吧?所以看,正如查克已經強調了我們從定價環境的角度所看到的那樣。顯然,我們在第二季度談到了一個事實——在我們的第二季度電話會議中,我們看到我們處於組件成本通縮環境中,從利潤率的角度來看,我們往往做得相當好,因為我們沒有盡可能降低成本或降低定價的節奏。

  • And I think that's what we saw this quarter. So we had good -- lower input costs from component costs as well as logistics costs. We obviously priced for FX and some of the other dynamics that we saw in the environment. As a result of that, given the configuration in the amount of memory and storage we're putting on the servers particularly led to some better-than-anticipated margins, I would say. And so our ability to hold on to that -- over time, you obviously have to adjust pricing for some of those market commodities. But again, that's only one element of the pricing stack and you get into things like mix and configuration as other impacts. I don't know if Jeff may add any...

    我認為這就是我們在本季度看到的情況。所以我們有很好的 - 降低組件成本和物流成本的投入成本。我們顯然為 FX 和我們在環境中看到的其他一些動態定價。因此,考慮到我們在服務器上放置的內存和存儲量的配置,我會說,這特別導致了一些好於預期的利潤。因此,我們堅持這一點的能力——隨著時間的推移,你顯然必須調整其中一些市場商品的定價。但同樣,這只是定價堆棧的一個元素,你會像其他影響一樣進入混合和配置之類的東西。我不知道 Jeff 是否可以添加任何...

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • Maybe to add to that back to our model and inventory. We have a lower inventory model. One of the benefits of how we run the company since beginning. It gave us availability to the lower cost component, I think, earlier than most. Our supply chain has executed well through this time. We had fewer mismatch sets. So we're able to convert the demand shipments and the backlog shipments throughout the quarter. And as a result of that, we were able also to take advantage, as Tom said, lower freight rates, lower expedites, lower supplier premiums, and we've obviously benefited from that throughout the quarter.

    也許將其添加回我們的模型和庫存中。我們有一個較低的庫存模型。我們從一開始就經營公司的方式的好處之一。它使我們能夠比大多數人更早地獲得成本更低的組件。這段時間我們的供應鍊錶現良好。我們有更少的不匹配集。因此,我們能夠在整個季度轉換需求出貨量和積壓出貨量。因此,正如湯姆所說,我們還能夠利用較低的運費、較低的速度、較低的供應商溢價,我們顯然在整個季度都從中受益。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

    我們將接受德意志銀行 Sidney Ho 的下一個問題。

  • Shek Ming Ho - Director & Senior Analyst

    Shek Ming Ho - Director & Senior Analyst

  • My question is on cash flow. So I noticed your first 3 quarters of the year in aggregate, free cash flow was negative. And you talked about building some strategic inventory in the last quarter. How do you think about Q4, and by definition, for the rest of the year? And as we think through next year, do you expect cash flow to exceed your net income? I guess I am asking how long do you think it would take working capital to get back to normalized levels?

    我的問題是關於現金流。所以我注意到你們今年前三個季度的總和,自由現金流為負。你談到在上個季度建立一些戰略庫存。您如何看待今年餘下時間的第四季度以及定義?正如我們對明年的思考,您預計現金流量會超過您的淨收入嗎?我想我是在問您認為營運資金需要多長時間才能恢復到正常水平?

  • Tyler W. Johnson - Senior VP & Treasurer

    Tyler W. Johnson - Senior VP & Treasurer

  • Yes, this is Tyler. I'll take that one. So look, I think maybe just to start, if you think about the last couple of years, right, cash has been really strong, right? So we were seeing that build given that negative cash conversion cycle, and we obviously benefit from that. I think what we're seeing now is the opposite of that, right?

    是的,這是泰勒。我會拿那個。所以看,我想也許只是開始,如果你想想過去幾年,對吧,現金真的很強勁,對吧?因此,鑑於負現金轉換週期,我們看到了這種構建,我們顯然從中受益。我認為我們現在看到的恰恰相反,對吧?

  • And there's 2 things happening, and you talked about it, right? So we've got the contraction in the P&L, which is impacting cash and then working capital. And our intent, obviously, is to drive those working capital balances down, but we also don't want to miss opportunities and you saw us take advantage of that this quarter, which impacted cash. Now as I'm thinking into Q4, and I'm thinking it next year and recognize we don't provide guidance, I think you have to keep that in context that, one, Tom has talked about that there will be some pressure in the P&L, and that will impact cash.

    有兩件事發生了,你談到了,對吧?所以我們的損益表出現了收縮,這影響了現金,然後是營運資金。顯然,我們的意圖是降低營運資金餘額,但我們也不想錯過機會,你看到我們在本季度利用了這一點,這影響了現金。現在我正在考慮第四季度,我正在考慮明年並認識到我們沒有提供指導,我認為你必須保持這一點,湯姆已經談到會有一些壓力損益表,這將影響現金。

  • But at the same time, we do have opportunities in working capital, and it's quite substantial, right? So we'll be focused on driving that down. And obviously, that's something we know how to do, and we'll be smart about it. But that's how I'm thinking about it.

    但與此同時,我們確實有營運資金的機會,而且相當可觀,對吧?所以我們將專注於降低它。顯然,這是我們知道該怎麼做的事情,我們會對此很聰明。但這就是我的想法。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. And then, Tyler, I would -- but we historically do generate cash and Q4 tends to be a seasonally stronger quarter for us. Now we'll have to work our way through this quarter. But look, I'm confident in the long-term model in terms of cash generation. It's -- obviously, when we're on a negative working capital or negative cash conversion cycle, when you get sequential revenue decline in the P&L, you're going to use cash. And that's what we're seeing.

    是的。然後,泰勒,我會——但我們從歷史上看確實產生了現金,而第四季度對我們來說往往是一個季節性強勁的季度。現在我們必須努力度過這個季度。但是看,我對現金產生方面的長期模式充滿信心。很明顯,當我們處於負營運資本或負現金轉換週期時,當您的損益表收入連續下降時,您將使用現金。這就是我們所看到的。

  • But the team is managing its way through it. We've got work to do in inventory. Pleased with what we're doing in receivables in terms of what that looks like in terms of the aging profile, collections, our ability to manage our way through it. So it's just one of we're in a cycle where we're just going to have to work our way through it. But long term, I believe the model is intact.

    但是團隊正在設法解決它。我們在庫存方面有工作要做。對我們在應收賬款方面所做的事情感到滿意,就老化情況、收款以及我們管理方式的能力而言。所以這只是我們處於一個週期中的一個,我們將不得不努力通過它。但從長遠來看,我相信這個模型是完好的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Erik Woodring with Morgan Stanley.

    我們將接受摩根士丹利的 Erik Woodring 的下一個問題。

  • Erik William Richard Woodring - Research Associate

    Erik William Richard Woodring - Research Associate

  • Maybe just if we unpack the fiscal fourth quarter, the January quarter guide for a bit. Would just love to know maybe if you could double click on -- or elaborate on your comments on kind of pricing versus volume, whether we should think of both of those as a headwind or whether some of the richer configs helps to offset some of the discounting that you mentioned to allow pricing to still grow over a year. So just really pricing versus volume comments for the January quarter.

    也許只要我們解開第四財季,一月份的季度指南就可以了。只是想知道您是否可以雙擊 - 或者詳細說明您對定價與數量的評論,我們是否應該將這兩者都視為逆風,或者一些更豐富的配置是否有助於抵消一些你提到的折扣允許價格在一年內仍然增長。因此,真正的定價與 1 月份季度的銷量評論。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Look, as we think about the guide, right, so '23 to '24, '23 to '25, obviously, at the midpoint of minus 16%. We essentially say that we expect ISG to be roughly flat. That sort of implies that the client business or CSG is sort of in the negative -- minus mid-20 sort of year-over-year growth. Look, as we work our way through whether units versus ASPs, I'm not going to get into a lot of detail, but I want you to think a little -- if you think about margin dynamics in Q4 for a second, so you've got some seasonal dynamics that typically happen in our Q4.

    是的。看,當我們考慮指南時,對,所以 '23 到 '24,'23 到 '25,顯然,在負 16% 的中點。我們基本上是說我們預計 ISG 大致持平。這有點意味著客戶業務或 CSG 有點消極——減去 20 年中期的同比增長。看,當我們研究單位與 ASP 時,我不會詳細介紹,但我希望你想一想——如果你想一想第四季度的利潤動態,那麼你有一些季節性動態通常發生在我們的第四季度。

  • One, tends to be a stronger storage quarter for us given the corporate budget cycle, the calendar year corporate budget cycle that tends to be a positive in terms of margin dynamics. The flip side of that is you get into the holiday season. Traditionally, that has been a bit stronger from a consumer PC perspective, which has put, as you might imagine, shifts the mix a little bit and put some a little bit of downward pressure on margin, coupled with -- we highlighted the fact that we did see some incremental commercial PC discounting in Q3, particularly in the third month of the quarter.

    第一,考慮到公司預算週期,日曆年的公司預算週期在利潤動態方面往往是積極的,對我們來說往往是一個更強勁的存儲季度。不利的一面是你進入了假期。傳統上,從消費 PC 的角度來看,這已經有點強了,正如您可能想像的那樣,它稍微改變了組合併對利潤率施加了一些下行壓力,再加上 - 我們強調了一個事實我們確實在第三季度看到了一些增量商用 PC 折扣,特別是在本季度的第三個月。

  • And obviously, we have -- there are elevated inventory levels in the channel. So we put it all together and quite frankly, we sort of think about margins from Q3 to Q4 at an aggregate level as being roughly flat. And then you couple that with the OpEx dynamic that I'm talking, we highlighted that sort of gets the, quite frankly, the P&L walk as you think about it.

    顯然,我們有 - 渠道中的庫存水平升高。所以我們把它們放在一起,坦率地說,我們認為從第三季度到第四季度的總體利潤率大致持平。然後你將它與我正在談論的 OpEx 動態相結合,我們強調了那種得到,坦率地說,正如你所想的那樣,P&L 步行。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Steven Fox, Fox Advisors.

    我們將從 Fox Advisors 的 Steven Fox 那裡回答下一個問題。

  • Steven Bryant Fox - Founder & CEO

    Steven Bryant Fox - Founder & CEO

  • I had a margin question also. I was just curious, when we look at sort of the big beat in margin -- gross margins this quarter, you mentioned a lot of different dynamics, including things that seem under your control a little bit, like configuration and content attach rates. So how much were you able to manage the margins up versus just circumstance? And how much can we sort of think about Dell going forward in the tough environment, being able to manage the gross margins a little bit better?

    我也有保證金問題。我只是好奇,當我們看到本季度毛利率的大幅增長時,你提到了很多不同的動態,包括似乎在你控制之下的事情,比如配置和內容附加率。那麼,相對於環境,您能夠在多大程度上控制利潤率?我們能在多大程度上考慮戴爾在艱難的環境中繼續前進,能夠更好地管理毛利率?

  • Anthony Charles Whitten - Co-COO

    Anthony Charles Whitten - Co-COO

  • Yes, let me start. I think, look, Q3 highlights, I think it's both the advantages of our model and very good execution in quarters. So look, foundationally, if you unpack Q3, clearly, we saw higher ISG mix. And as we've said, a relatively stable pricing dynamic. And that pricing dynamic is a combination on the PC side, richer configurations and a more favorable mix of product along with higher attach rates, helping offset PC unit declines.

    是的,讓我開始吧。我認為,看,第三季度的亮點,我認為這既是我們模型的優勢,也是季度中非常好的執行。所以從根本上看,如果你打開第三季度的包裝,很明顯,我們看到了更高的 ISG 組合。正如我們所說,相對穩定的定價動態。這種定價動態是 PC 端的組合,更豐富的配置和更有利的產品組合以及更高的附加率,有助於抵消 PC 單位的下降。

  • And then on the server side of the business, higher content rates, so I think memory, SSDs, richer GPUs, offsetting the unit pressure. So I think that's just foundationally. But I think the real margin story is what we were talking about a couple of questions ago, with Q3 being deflationary and our lower inventory model, it allows us to access component deflation faster than the industry.

    然後在業務的服務器端,更高的內容率,所以我認為內存、固態硬盤、更豐富的 GPU 可以抵消單位壓力。所以我認為這只是基礎。但我認為真正的利潤率故事是我們在幾個問題之前談論的,第三季度是通貨緊縮和我們較低的庫存模型,它使我們能夠比行業更快地進入組件通貨緊縮。

  • And then when you couple that with our ability to see the demand signal quickly and react, we were able to lower OpEx as we put in the prudent cost controls that Tom described. So those were the puts and takes across Q3. A lot of that is in our control. Some of that is the advantages of our model in this environment.

    然後,當您將其與我們快速查看需求信號並做出反應的能力相結合時,我們能夠降低 OpEx,因為我們實施了 Tom 描述的審慎成本控制。所以這些就是第三季度的看跌期權和看跌期權。其中很多都在我們的控制之下。其中一些是我們模型在這種環境中的優勢。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • Maybe to add to that, another view of inventory is we don't have excess channel inventory. We're not in a position of having to discount that, not in a position to have to promo that. We're not in a position where you have to go chase volume. We have a conscious strategy in the high-price band (inaudible) consumer and the focus on commercial. That gives us historically, and I think we're seeing it today, an advantage in the market. So we're not having to respond to that discounting in promotional activity to burn down excess inventory. Plus by the fact that we have lower inventory, just as Chuck said, we were able to take advantage of lower input cost, component costs throughout the quarter. Coupled with that, like Chuck -- maybe I wasn't clear earlier, but I think it's worth emphasizing again, the logistics costs have come down. As supply now is ahead of demand, we're able to put things on the ocean. We don't have to expedite as much. We're not using as much expedited air freight. Those all go into our input cost equation, which obviously helped us in the bottom line and the performance of this quarter.

    也許除此之外,庫存的另一種觀點是我們沒有多餘的渠道庫存。我們不能打折,也不能宣傳。我們不在你必須去追逐音量的位置。我們在高價帶(聽不清)消費者中有一個有意識的策略,並且專注於商業。從歷史上看,這給了我們市場上的優勢,我想我們今天也看到了。因此,我們不必響應促銷活動中的折扣來消耗過剩庫存。再加上我們的庫存較低,正如查克所說,我們能夠在整個季度利用較低的投入成本和組件成本。再加上,就像查克一樣——也許我之前不清楚,但我認為值得再次強調的是,物流成本已經下降了。由於現在供應超過需求,我們能夠把東西放在海洋上。我們不必加快速度。我們沒有使用盡可能多的加急空運。這些都進入了我們的投入成本方程式,這顯然有助於我們提高本季度的利潤和業績。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

    我們將接受來自美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan 的下一個問題。

  • Ruplu Bhattacharya - Director & Research Analyst

    Ruplu Bhattacharya - Director & Research Analyst

  • It's actually Ruplu filling in for Wamsi today. Can you talk about the component shortage environment that is still affecting maybe ISG? And if anything, on the CSG side. Did you have any revenue that you left on the table because you weren't able to get all the parts. And then just on ISG, you talked about backlog reducing this quarter. How far would you say that we are out from backlog normalizing? And do you think you'll get any support on that on the server side? Or is it -- or the backlog is all on the storage right now?

    今天實際上是 Ruplu 代替了 Wamsi。您能否談談仍在影響 ISG 的組件短缺環境?如果有的話,在 CSG 方面。你有沒有因為無法獲得所有零件而留在桌面上的任何收入?然後就在 ISG 上,你談到了本季度減少積壓的問題。您認為我們距離積壓正常化還有多遠?你認為你會在服務器端得到任何支持嗎?或者是 - 或者積壓現在都在存儲中?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • Sure. Let me try to break that down -- those multiple questions and at least as I think about supply and where some of the shortages are. If I look at the CSG business, again, largely a handful of minor exceptions, supply is ahead of demand across consumer PCs, commercial PCs, displays, docs to the point that we're now able to readjust our freight networks to take advantage of that. We're in a good position. Servers, we had -- as the team mentioned, we talked about backlog and backlog reduction. I tend to think of it -- since you asked about supply where are the hot spots in supply. They tend to be in power supplies. They tend to be in the power ICs and high-performance NICs. Those are still constraints in the marketplace today.

    當然。讓我試著分解一下——這些多個問題,至少在我考慮供應和一些短缺的地方時是這樣。如果我再次審視 CSG 業務,主要是少數幾個小例外,消費 PC、商用 PC、顯示器、文檔的供應超過需求,以至於我們現在能夠重新調整我們的貨運網絡以利用那。我們處於有利位置。服務器,我們有——正如團隊所提到的,我們討論了積壓和減少積壓。我傾向於這樣想——既然你問了供應,供應的熱點在哪裡。它們往往在電源中。它們往往出現在電源 IC 和高性能 NIC 中。這些仍然是當今市場的製約因素。

  • I think we weathered the storm quite well throughout this period of time and particularly in Q3 and allowed us to maximize server shipments. In storage, the shortages would be in these custom ASIC parts. So think of it as FPGA, CPLDs, those types of devices. The best way we translate this to our customers is in the form of lead time. I don't think -- I can't remember the last time I was in front of you all and said the PC product line is essentially on standard lead time.

    我認為我們在這段時間內很好地度過了這場風暴,尤其是在第三季度,並使我們能夠最大限度地提高服務器出貨量。在存儲中,短缺的是這些定制的 ASIC 部件。因此,可以將其視為 FPGA、CPLD 等類型的設備。我們將此轉化為客戶的最佳方式是以交貨時間的形式。我不認為 - 我不記得上次我在大家面前說 PC 產品線基本上是標準交貨時間。

  • It's been a long path through this COVID supply chain challenge time to be able to say our PC product line is on standard lead time. Our server product line, a large percentage of that is on standard lead time, and it will improve throughout the quarter as will storage. So if I think about it in terms of specific backlog, we are at normal backlog in PCs. I think we're at normal to near normal backlogs in servers and a slightly elevated backlog in storage. I think that answered all 3 of your questions.

    在這個 COVID 供應鏈挑戰時期,我們經歷了很長的一段路要走才能說我們的 PC 產品線處於標準交貨時間。我們的服務器產品線,其中很大一部分是按標準交貨時間交付的,並且它將在整個季度內得到改進,存儲也是如此。因此,如果我從特定積壓的角度考慮,我們在 PC 中處於正常積壓狀態。我認為我們的服務器積壓處於正常或接近正常狀態,存儲積壓略有增加。我認為這回答了您的所有 3 個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

    我們將與 Raymond James 一起接受 Simon Leopold 的下一個問題。

  • Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

    Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

  • I wanted to see if you could maybe talk to the general idea of why storage would or would not be correlated to servers in the sense that you're seeing slowing demand in your server business, should that signal coming or threats to the storage business? Or should we think of them as trending differently? And if so, why?

    我想看看你是否可以談談為什麼存儲會或不會與服務器相關的一般想法,因為你看到服務器業務需求放緩,這應該是存儲業務的信號還是威脅?還是我們應該將它們視為不同的趨勢?如果是這樣,為什麼?

  • Anthony Charles Whitten - Co-COO

    Anthony Charles Whitten - Co-COO

  • Yes. Look, Simon, I would say, look, we would never argue that storage is immune to the broader IT spending dynamics that are out there. But we would say it's from where we sit right now, it's held up better in our Q3. I think you're right, historically, there's been a correlation, but it tends to have less amplitude than, say, our commercial PC market or the server market.

    是的。看,西蒙,我會說,看,我們永遠不會爭辯說存儲不受更廣泛的 IT 支出動態的影響。但我們會說這是從我們現在的位置來看,它在我們的第三季度表現得更好。我認為你是對的,從歷史上看,存在相關性,但它的幅度往往低於我們的商用 PC 市場或服務器市場。

  • Clearly, right now, data is exploding. The world needs more storage. And so when we flash forward to what's implicit in our guidance, we're anticipating a seasonally strong storage quarter in Q4. And so I think why you're right, historically, there's been a correlation between our server and storage business at least from where we sit right now, we're still seeing strength in the storage market.

    顯然,現在數據正在爆炸式增長。世界需要更多的存儲空間。因此,當我們回顧我們的指導中隱含的內容時,我們預計第四季度將出現季節性強勁的存儲季度。所以我認為為什麼你是對的,從歷史上看,我們的服務器和存儲業務之間存在關聯,至少從我們現在所處的位置來看,我們仍然看到存儲市場的實力。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • And maybe one quick point to add is, and we participate in the entire storage market, primary storage, data protection, recently the cyber resilience side as well as the HCI side. That broad portfolio, I think, helps us weather these cyclical changes more than others.

    也許可以快速補充一點,我們參與了整個存儲市場、主存儲、數據保護,最近還參與了網絡彈性方面以及 HCI 方面。我認為,這種廣泛的投資組合比其他人更能幫助我們經受住這些週期性變化。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

    我們將與 Bernstein 一起接受 Toni Sacconaghi 的下一個問題。

  • A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

    A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

  • Yes. I'm just trying to square how much worse incrementally and sequentially, you think demand may get in fiscal Q4. So when I kind of look at your numbers, typically, you're up from Q3 to Q4 by 5-plus percent. So let's say, $1 billion. An extra week, we're probably at a minimum of 5%. I get -- I know you have contractual business, but you have an extra week to deliver those on those contracts.

    是的。我只是想計算一下你認為需求可能會在第四財季出現的遞增和連續惡化程度。所以當我看你的數字時,通常情況下,你從第三季度到第四季度增長了 5 個百分點以上。比方說,10 億美元。再多一周,我們可能至少達到 5%。我知道——我知道你有合同業務,但你有額外的一周時間來交付那些合同上的業務。

  • So that's up another 5%, that's $2-plus billion. So normal seasonality, you'd be up $2-plus billion and you're guiding basically to be down $1 billion. So it's a $3 billion delta versus normal seasonality. So I guess a couple of questions. Does that imply that you see demand getting incrementally worse. And are you anticipating any backlog drawdown? I get it was $1.2 billion in the quarter, but that doesn't explain the $3 billion delta versus normal adjusting for the extra week. So are you expecting any backlog drawdown in Q4? And how elevated in dollar terms is the storage backlog relative to where server was entering Q3?

    所以又增加了 5%,即超過 20 億美元。所以正常的季節性,你會增加 2 多億美元,而你基本上會減少 10 億美元。因此,與正常季節性相比,這是一個 30 億美元的增量。所以我猜有幾個問題。這是否意味著您看到需求逐漸惡化。您是否預計會有任何積壓縮編?我知道本季度是 12 億美元,但這並不能解釋 30 億美元與正常調整額外一周的差異。那麼您是否預計第四季度會有任何積壓縮編?相對於服務器進入第三季度的位置,以美元計算的存儲積壓有多高?

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Toni, let me try and answer some of those questions anyway. So as it relates to Q4, look, I think as we think about clearly, we're projecting that the business continues to soften, right? I mean I think that's pretty apparent given the fact that I'm telling you now that we expect PC revenue to be sort of in the mid negative growth -- mid-20s year-over-year negative growth.

    托尼,讓我試著回答其中的一些問題。因此,就第四季度而言,看,我認為我們清楚地考慮,我們預計業務將繼續疲軟,對嗎?我的意思是,鑑於我現在告訴你的事實,我認為這一點非常明顯,我們預計 PC 收入將處於負增長中期——20 多歲中期同比負增長。

  • And I'm expecting client -- or I'm sorry, ISG to be roughly flat versus where they were this quarter. So the business is softening. I think we'll manage our way through that like we always do. As it relates to the 14th week, there is a little bit of extra transactional demand in there. It's not that significant. So I haven't done the math on your $3 billion or your -- that 5% comment. But look, what we're trying to give you a point of view on is that we think demand does soften, right? And if you think about our guide for next year, that's sort of (inaudible) follows from there.

    我期待客戶——或者對不起,ISG 與本季度的情況相比大致持平。因此,業務正在走軟。我認為我們會像往常一樣設法度過難關。因為它涉及到第 14 週,那裡有一些額外的交易需求。這並不重要。所以我沒有對你的 30 億美元或你的 5% 的評論進行計算。但是看,我們試圖給你的觀點是我們認為需求確實疲軟,對嗎?如果您考慮我們明年的指南,那就是(聽不清)從那裡開始。

  • As it relates to backlog, look, we don't forecast what happens with backlog in terms of how we're going to talk to the Street about it. But we've just talked about the fact that in general, backlog is back in normal ranges. Yes, in storage is slightly elevated. So if there's any opportunity, it would be there, but that's very much going to be dependent upon linearity of the quarter and how the storage orders come in, which has always been an interesting dynamic with the storage business for us. What we've told you is our best point of view at this point in time, and we'll continue to manage the business tightly as a result. I don't know if Jeff or Chuck, you'd add anything to that.

    由於它與積壓有關,看,我們不會根據我們將如何與華爾街談論它來預測積壓會發生什麼。但我們剛剛談到了一個事實,即總體而言,積壓已恢復到正常範圍內。是的,存儲空間略有升高。因此,如果有任何機會,它就會存在,但這在很大程度上取決於季度的線性以及存儲訂單的進入方式,這對我們來說一直是存儲業務的一個有趣動態。我們告訴你的是我們目前最好的觀點,因此我們將繼續嚴格管理業務。我不知道 Jeff 或 Chuck 是否會對此添加任何內容。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • Well, I think it lies in the PC side. I just did a quick look in our web deck. Last Q3, we did $16.6 billion of CSG revenue. This Q3, it's $13.8 billion there probably lies in the (inaudible)

    好吧,我認為它在於PC端。我只是快速瀏覽了我們的網絡平台。去年第三季度,我們的 CSG 收入為 166 億美元。這個第三季度,可能是 138 億美元(聽不清)

  • A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

    A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

  • Right. I think the only question I was -- explicitly, as you commented about service weakening during the quarter. You didn't really comment that PCs were weakening throughout the quarter. And I'm wondering whether that was indeed the case because if it wasn't, it's not really clear why the guidance is where the guidance is, unless you're expecting real changes in ASPs.

    正確的。我認為我唯一的問題是——明確地,正如你對本季度服務減弱的評論。你並沒有真正評論個人電腦在整個季度都在走弱。我想知道是否確實如此,因為如果不是這樣,那麼除非您期望 ASP 發生真正的變化,否則就不清楚為什麼指導是指導所在的位置。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Look, I think we saw -- as you think back to our Q2 commentary, what we talked about the fact that we saw PCs -- consumer PCs have been soft, and we saw commercial PCs weakened. So I think that's pretty self-explanatory.

    是的。看,我認為我們看到了——當你回想我們的第二季度評論時,我們談到了我們看到 PC 的事實——消費 PC 一直很疲軟,我們看到商用 PC 被削弱了。所以我認為這是不言自明的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Shannon Cross with Credit Suisse.

    我們將接受瑞士信貸香農克羅斯的下一個問題。

  • Shannon Siemsen Cross - Research Analyst

    Shannon Siemsen Cross - Research Analyst

  • Tom or Chuck, I not sure who mentioned it. I wanted to go back to one of the comments that was made, which is that you're seeing increasing interest in subscription models. I don't know if you can talk a bit about what customer bases are interested in them. How we should think about, I know they'll have a little bit of a dampening impact to revenue, but obviously locking in recurring revenue. So maybe if you can just discuss a bit of what you're hearing from customers.

    湯姆或查克,我不確定是誰提到的。我想回到之前發表的其中一條評論,即您看到人們對訂閱模式越來越感興趣。我不知道你是否可以談談哪些客戶群對他們感興趣。我們應該如何思考,我知道它們會對收入產生一些抑制影響,但顯然會鎖定經常性收入。因此,也許您可以討論一下您從客戶那裡聽到的內容。

  • Anthony Charles Whitten - Co-COO

    Anthony Charles Whitten - Co-COO

  • Yes. Thanks, Shannon. It's Chuck. I'll start. Look, it's -- that's been our APEX business, which in Q2, we highlighted that we sort of hit the $1 billion milestone and side growing at a continued healthy rate and adding new customers. We've been consistent that we're going to be thoughtful about how we discuss progress there.

    是的。謝謝,香農。是查克。我會開始。看,這是我們的 APEX 業務,在第二季度,我們強調我們達到了 10 億美元的里程碑,並且以持續健康的速度增長並增加了新客戶。我們一直認為,我們將深思熟慮我們如何討論那裡的進展。

  • We're not -- certainly not going to provide sort of quarter-to-quarter updates. And so we can share metrics that can be traced clearly back to the P&L. But what I would tell you is interest remains very high in our subscription offers. We saw again triple-digit customer growth and healthy ARR growth in the quarter. And we continue to invest in the portfolio and our web deck as a whole series of new APEX offers that we've released since we last spoke in August.

    我們不會——當然不會提供某種季度到季度的更新。因此,我們可以共享可以清楚地追溯到損益表的指標。但我要告訴你的是,我們對訂閱優惠的興趣仍然很高。本季度我們再次看到三位數的客戶增長和健康的 ARR 增長。我們將繼續投資於產品組合和我們的網絡甲板,作為我們自 8 月上次發言以來發布的一系列新的 APEX 產品。

  • We tend to see broad-based interest. Right now, it does tend to be concentrated at some of the larger companies in the medium-sized businesses in the world, but we're getting a lot of interest in conversations from customers as they try to navigate this macro environment as you would imagine. It's not sizable enough relative to our $100 billion trailing 12-month business to sort of go much more beyond that. We are getting a lot of customer interest.

    我們傾向於看到廣泛的興趣。現在,它確實傾向於集中在世界上中型企業中的一些大公司,但我們對客戶的對話很感興趣,因為他們試圖像你想像的那樣駕馭這個宏觀環境.相對於我們 1000 億美元的 12 個月業務而言,它的規模還不夠大,無法超越這一點。我們引起了很多客戶的興趣。

  • Shannon Siemsen Cross - Research Analyst

    Shannon Siemsen Cross - Research Analyst

  • Any products -- sorry, go ahead.

    任何產品——抱歉,請繼續。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • I'm sorry, Shannon, I was going to add the new backup target service that we just announced, it's a pretty exciting offer. What we've done around expanding our geographic capability, our channel capability and our customer managed option capability around ADSS, I think, is another extension that we can continue to grow on. And then the 2 as-a-Service offers that we've extended. One, the Red Hat offer that we announced back in September.

    對不起,Shannon,我正要添加我們剛剛宣布的新備份目標服務,這是一個非常令人興奮的提議。我認為,我們圍繞 ADSS 擴展地理能力、渠道能力和客戶管理選項能力所做的工作是我們可以繼續發展的另一個擴展。然後是我們擴展的 2 個即服務產品。第一,我們在 9 月份宣布的 Red Hat offer。

  • And then secondly, the new one, which is the APEX High Performance Computing service, I think, is another opportunity for us to grow. And I can tell you the pipeline is full of continue to do APEX offers.

    其次,我認為新的 APEX 高性能計算服務是我們成長的另一個機會。我可以告訴你,管道中充滿了繼續提供 APEX 的機會。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • Keith, we'll take 1 last question, and then we'll turn it back over to Chuck for closing comments.

    基思,我們將提出最後一個問題,然後我們將把它轉回給查克以徵求結束意見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our final question from Jim Suva with Citigroup.

    我們將接受花旗集團吉姆蘇瓦的最後一個問題。

  • James Dickey Suva - MD & Research Analyst

    James Dickey Suva - MD & Research Analyst

  • And I actually only have one question and that's on your inventories. While they were up and you talked about a deflationary environment for the need to secure some pretty key components which is understandable. Can you talk to us about when you think you'll actually kind of renormalize inventory and working capital? Or is it just better simply to hold more because with the deflationary environment, you just kind of have to wonder here, but I understand there's shortages.

    實際上我只有一個問題,那就是你的庫存。當他們起來的時候,你談到了通貨緊縮的環境,因為需要保護一些非常關鍵的組件,這是可以理解的。你能和我們談談你認為你什麼時候會真正重新規範庫存和營運資金嗎?或者只是持有更多更好,因為在通貨緊縮的環境下,你不得不在這裡懷疑,但我知道存在短缺。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Jim, look, I mean it is my goal, and I think the goal of all of us here that we need to manage inventories down. We built it over the last couple of years given the supply chain dynamics going through the pandemic. In a deflationary environment, you clearly want to hold less inventory. And so I'm not going to give you an exact time line on where we -- how this thing sort of unfolds. But I think absent the strategic buys we did this quarter, the inventory actually came down quite nicely.

    是的。吉姆,看,我的意思是這是我的目標,我認為我們所有人的目標是我們需要管理庫存。鑑於大流行期間的供應鏈動態,我們在過去幾年中建立了它。在通貨緊縮的環境中,您顯然希望持有更少的庫存。所以我不會給你一個確切的時間表,說明我們在哪裡——這件事是如何展開的。但我認為,如果沒有我們本季度進行的戰略購買,庫存實際上下降得相當好。

  • The strategic buys who didn't make economic sense. And so we -- that was the whole point behind that. So I do think it's going to be a few more quarters as we continue to normalize inventory. And then we'll have to evaluate this as we go in terms of what's the right level, given the supply chain dynamics. And so more to come on that. But in the meantime, over the next few number of quarters, we're pretty focused on pushing inventory down from a working capital perspective.

    沒有經濟意義的戰略收購。所以我們——這就是背後的重點。因此,我確實認為隨著我們繼續使庫存正常化,還需要幾個季度。考慮到供應鏈動態,然後我們將不得不根據正確的水平來評估這一點。還有更多的事情要做。但與此同時,在接下來的幾個季度裡,我們非常專注於從營運資本的角度降低庫存。

  • Anthony Charles Whitten - Co-COO

    Anthony Charles Whitten - Co-COO

  • Thanks for that, Jim. Before we end the call, I'm going to leave you with a few final thoughts on behalf of the team, and then we'll wrap. Look, we delivered strong performance over the last few years, and we delivered again in Q3. As we discussed today, Q3 highlights the advantages of our model. We see changes in the market first, and we react and position the business to outperform. So in Q3, we took appropriate cost action. We drove share gain. We delivered very good profitability. We drove our innovation agenda forward and we delivered against our capital return commitments.

    謝謝你,吉姆。在我們結束電話會議之前,我將代表團隊給您留下一些最後的想法,然後我們將結束。看,我們在過去幾年表現強勁,我們在第三季度再次表現出色。正如我們今天所討論的,第三季度突出了我們模型的優勢。我們首先看到市場的變化,然後我們做出反應並將業務定位為跑贏大盤。所以在第三季度,我們採取了適當的成本行動。我們推動了份額增長。我們提供了非常好的盈利能力。我們推動了我們的創新議程,並兌現了我們的資本回報承諾。

  • And that's what we mean when we say that we can deliver differentiated results in any market environment. We do expect the demand environment to be challenging in the near term. But the long-term trends remain very much in our favor. And importantly, we have a seasoned leadership team led by Michael, Jeff and Tom, who have a strong track record of delivering across these challenging economic cycles. So we're going to stay focused on what we can control, and we remain committed to delivering differentiated results for our stakeholders as we did in Q3. So with that, we appreciate everybody joining us today, and look forward to seeing you soon.

    這就是我們所說的我們可以在任何市場環境中提供差異化結果的意思。我們確實預計需求環境在短期內將充滿挑戰。但長期趨勢仍然對我們非常有利。重要的是,我們擁有一支由邁克爾、傑夫和湯姆領導的經驗豐富的領導團隊,他們在應對這些充滿挑戰的經濟周期方面有著良好的業績記錄。因此,我們將繼續專注於我們可以控制的事情,並且我們將繼續致力於為我們的利益相關者提供差異化的結果,就像我們在第三季度所做的那樣。因此,我們感謝今天加入我們的每一個人,並期待很快見到你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. We appreciate your participation. You may now disconnect at this time.

    女士們,先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。