戴爾 (DELL) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon, and welcome to the Fiscal Year 2022 Fourth Quarter and Year-end Financial Results Conference Call for Dell Technologies Inc. I'd like to inform all participants, this call is being recorded at the request of Dell Technologies. This broadcast is the copyrighted property of Dell Technologies Inc. Any rebroadcast of this information in whole or part without the prior written permission of Dell Technologies Inc. is prohibited. (Operator Instructions)

    下午好,歡迎參加戴爾科技集團 2022 財年第四季和年終財務業績電話會議。本廣播是 Dell Technologies Inc. 的版權財產。 (操作員說明)

  • I'd like to turn the call over to Rob Williams, Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Williams, you may begin.

    我想將電話轉給投資者關係主管 Rob Williams。威廉斯先生,您可以開始了。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • Thanks, Erica, and thanks, everyone, for joining us. With me today are Jeff Clarke, Chuck Whitten, Tom Sweet and Tyler Johnson. Our earnings materials are available on our IR website, and guidance will be covered on today's call.

    謝謝艾麗卡,謝謝大家加入我們。今天和我在一起的有傑夫·克拉克、查克·惠頓、湯姆·斯威特和泰勒·約翰遜。我們的獲利資料可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到,今天的電話會議將涵蓋指引。

  • During this call, unless otherwise indicated, all references to financial measures refer to non-GAAP financial measures, including non-GAAP revenue, gross margin, operating expenses, operating income, net income, earnings per share, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow. A reconciliation of these measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in our web deck and press release. All financial numbers in our earnings materials are now presented on a continuing operations basis, unless otherwise noted. See Appendix C in our presentation for a recast of our P&L numbers. Growth percentages refer to year-over-year change unless otherwise specified.

    在本次電話會議中,除非另有說明,所有提及的財務指標均指非GAAP 財務指標,包括非GAAP 收入、毛利率、營運費用、營運收入、淨利潤、每股收益、EBITDA、調整後EBITDA 和調整後自由現金流現金週轉。您可以在我們的網路平台和新聞稿中找到這些衡量標準與其最直接可比較的公認會計原則衡量標準的協調表。除非另有說明,否則我們收益資料中的所有財務數據現在均以持續經營為基礎呈現。請參閱我們簡報中的附錄 C,以了解我們損益資料的重述。除非另有說明,增長百分比指的是同比變化。

  • Statements made during this call that relate to future results and events are forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results and events could differ materially from those projected due to a number of risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our web deck and SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

    本次電話會議期間發表的與未來結果和事件相關的聲明是基於當前預期的前瞻性聲明。由於許多風險和不確定性,實際結果和事件可能與預測的結果和事件有重大差異,這些風險和不確定性在我們的網路平台和 SEC 文件中進行了討論。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

  • During the call today, Jeff will recap FY '22, the demand environment heading into FY '23 and supply chain dynamics in CSG. Chuck will cover ISG and our growth initiatives. And Tom will cover our Q4 financial results, capital allocation and guidance.

    在今天的電話會議上,Jeff 將回顧 22 財年、進入 23 財年的需求環境以及 CSG 的供應鏈動態。 Chuck 將負責 ISG 和我們的成長計劃。湯姆將介紹我們第四季的財務表現、資本配置和指導。

  • Now I'd like to turn it over to Jeff.

    現在我想把它交給傑夫。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • Thanks, Rob. FY '22 was a historic year for Dell Technologies. In fact, the best in our company's history. We reached more than $100 billion in revenue and grew 17%, a huge achievement for a company of our scale and ahead of our long-term value creation growth rates. And our opportunity continues to grow as we look ahead to FY '23. We are more vital than ever to our customers in an expanding market fueled by digital transformation.

    謝謝,羅布。 22 財年對 Dell Technologies 來說是歷史性的一年。事實上,這是我們公司歷史上最好的。 我們的收入超過 1000 億美元,成長了 17%,這對我們這樣規模的公司來說是一項巨大的成就,並且超過了我們的長期價值創造成長率。展望 23 財年,我們的機會將持續增加。在數位轉型推動的不斷擴大的市場中,我們對客戶來說比以往任何時候都更重要。

  • IT investments remain a top priority for our customers as technology has become even more essential to their business. It's how you turn data into insight and action into better customer experience and competitive advantage. Customers also want choice and a trusted partner. Our position at the center of our customers' digital agenda and at the center of the technology ecosystem makes Dell the logical choice.

    IT 投資仍然是我們客戶的首要任務,因為科技對他們的業務變得更加重要。您可以透過它將數據轉化為洞察力,將行動轉化為更好的客戶體驗和競爭優勢。客戶還需要選擇和值得信賴的合作夥伴。我們處於客戶數位議程的中心和技術生態系統的中心,這使得戴爾成為合理的選擇。

  • You can see in how we're winning with the customers like the Miami Dolphins, AT&T and Vodafone, with the world's largest reinsurer, Munich Re, and one of India's largest manufacturers, Greenpanel, across data storage, hyperconverged infrastructure and in adjacent opportunities like multi-cloud, as-a-service, edge and telecom.

    您可以看到我們如何贏得邁阿密海豚隊、AT&T 和沃達豐等客戶,以及全球最大的再保險公司慕尼黑再保險公司和印度最大的製造商之一Greenpanel,在數據存儲、超融合基礎設施以及相鄰機會等領域取得勝利。

  • We are continuing to gain share in our core businesses and these emerging opportunities where we can bring our advantages to bear. We have differentiated ourselves through consistent performance across different economic environments, unprecedented challenges and unforeseen events, and we have leaned into new opportunities always with an eye toward our customers.

    我們正在繼續擴大我們的核心業務和這些新興機會的份額,我們可以在其中發揮我們的優勢。我們透過在不同的經濟環境、前所未有的挑戰和不可預見的事件中保持一致的表現而脫穎而出,並且我們始終著眼於客戶來抓住新的機會。

  • In FY '22, we delivered record revenue of $101.2 billion, record operating income of $7.8 billion, diluted EPS of $6.22 and record cash flow from operations of $7.1 billion, truly a record year.

    22 財年,我們實現了創紀錄的收入1,012 億美元、創紀錄的營業收入78 億美元、稀釋後每股收益6.22 美元、創紀錄的營運現金流71 億美元,這確實是創紀錄的一年。

  • And Q4 was no different. We saw 17% growth in demand of our products and services in the quarter with broad growth across geos, industry vertical and business units. As a result, we delivered record revenue up 16%.

    第四季也不例外。本季我們的產品和服務需求成長了 17%,各個地區、垂直產業和業務部門均廣泛成長。結果,我們的收入成長了 16%,創歷史新高。

  • Operating income was a record, up 1%, but slightly below our November guidance as we optimized our performance based on customer needs, parts availability and backlog dynamics.

    營業收入創歷史新高,成長 1%,但略低於 11 月的指導,因為我們根據客戶需求、零件可用性和積壓動態優化了業績。

  • Being trusted partners to our investors and lenders as well as our customers is important to us. And in FY '22, we unlocked shareholder value by the spin of VMware; simplifying our capital structure; deleveraging our balance sheet, returning to investment-grade ratings; approving a share buyback program for up to $5 billion; and today, announcing a quarterly dividend at an initial annual rate of $1.32 a share.

    成為投資者、貸款人以及客戶值得信賴的合作夥伴對我們來說非常重要。在 22 財年,我們透過 VMware 釋放了股東價值;簡化我們的資本結構;去槓桿化我們的資產負債表,恢復投資等級;批准高達 50 億美元的股票回購計畫;今天,宣布季度股息,初始年利率為每股 1.32 美元。

  • Now let me shift gears and share a little color on the current supply chain dynamics, and then we will move into BU performance. The global supply chain shortage of semiconductors and global logistics challenges for goods and components continues to impact just about every industry. We are still experiencing shortages of integrated circuits across a wide range of devices, including network controllers and microcontrollers, that go into our products and solutions. The result, we are seeing an impact across client systems, servers and storage.

    現在讓我換個主題,分享一下當前供應鏈動態,然後我們將進入業務單元績效。全球半導體供應鏈短缺以及全球貨物和零件物流挑戰繼續影響幾乎每個行業。我們的產品和解決方案中使用的各種設備(包括網路控制器和微控制器)仍然面臨著積體電路短缺的問題。結果,我們看到了跨客戶端系統、伺服器和儲存的影響。

  • In addition, freight costs have continued to rise due to increased logistics rates, a higher mix of air due to ocean network congestion and increase in part expedites to meet customer needs. We have reduced our PC backlog over the last 2 quarters, and it is nearing the high end of its normal range. However, we expect PC backlog to grow in Q1.

    此外,由於物流費率增加、海運網路擁塞導致空運組合增加以及為了滿足客戶需求而增加的部分加急,貨運成本持續上升。過去兩季我們減少了 PC 積壓,目前已接近正常範圍的高階。然而,我們預計第一季 PC 積壓訂單將會成長。

  • Our higher-margin ISG backlog increased again in Q4 to a record level due to a combination of very strong demand and the lack of compounded availability. We expect our ISG backlog to remain elevated through at least the first half of the year as part shortages continue.

    由於需求非常強勁且複合可用性的缺乏,我們利潤率較高的 ISG 積壓訂單在第四季度再次增加至創紀錄水平。我們預計,由於零件短缺的情況持續存在,我們的 ISG 積壓訂單至少在今年上半年仍將維持在高水準。

  • As we head into Q1, we do expect component cost to improve with modest deflation while freight costs remain elevated. We are awaiting information from the recent NAND contamination announcement from Kioxa and Western Digital to evaluate the impact on Dell.

    當我們進入第一季時,我們確實預計零件成本將隨著溫和的通貨緊縮而改善,而貨運成本仍然較高。我們正在等待 Kioxa 和 Western Digital 最近發布的 NAND 污染公告的信息,以評估對戴爾的影響。

  • Our supply chain speed, agility and flexibility has enabled us to meet customer needs in this environment though challenges remain. And our supply chain continues to be a durable competitive advantage as we navigate the unprecedented supply uncertainty.

    儘管挑戰依然存在,但我們的供應鏈速度、敏捷性和靈活性使我們能夠在這種環境中滿足客戶的需求。當我們應對前所未有的供應不確定性時,我們的供應鏈仍然是持久的競爭優勢。

  • Turning to CSG. Our PC business logged another record year. We delivered record revenue of $61.5 billion, up 27%; record operating income of $4.4 billion or 7.1% of revenue; record unit shipments of 59.3 million units in calendar '21, up 18%, growing faster than any of the top 3. And calendar year 2021 commercial share growth was up 70 basis points, more than any of the top 3, and has now been up 470 basis points over the last 5 years.

    轉向南玻集團。我們的個人電腦業務再創歷史新高。我們實現創紀錄的收入 615 億美元,成長 27%;營運收入達到創紀錄的 44 億美元,佔營收的 7.1%; 21 日曆年的單位出貨量達到創紀錄的5,930 萬台,成長18%,成長速度超過前3 名中的任何一個。一個。

  • Turning to Q4. We delivered our sixth consecutive record CSG revenue quarter with $17.3 billion, up 26%, with healthy demand, up 21%. Operating income was a record of $1.2 billion. We shipped a record 17.2 million PCs in calendar Q4, up 9%, and now have gained share in 32 of the last 36 quarters. Our leading innovation continues to build a strong foundation for future CSG results.

    轉向第四季。我們的 CSG 營收季度連續第六個創紀錄,達到 173 億美元,成長 26%,需求健康,成長 21%。營業收入達到創紀錄的 12 億美元。第四季度,我們的 PC 出貨量達到創紀錄的 1,720 萬台,成長 9%,並且在過去 36 個季度中的 32 個季度中,我們的份額有所增加。我們領先的創新繼續為 CSG 未來的業績奠定堅實的基礎。

  • We won 47 awards at CES in January where we introduced our new XPS 13, our thinnest-ever gaming notebook, the Alienware 14, and an advanced commercial notebook concept built around sustainability, recyclability and reuse. Hybrid work, learning, shopping, socializing, entertainment and travel is all here to stay. And we expect commercial PC and premium consumer growth in FY '23, albeit at moderating rate relative to a record year.

    我們在1 月的CES 上獲得了47 個獎項,會上我們推出了新款XPS 13、有史以來最薄的遊戲筆記型電腦、Alienware 14 以及圍繞可持續性、可回收性和再利用而構建的先進商用筆記型電腦概念。混合工作、學習、購物、社交、娛樂和旅行都在這裡。我們預計 23 財年商用 PC 和高端消費者將出現成長,儘管與創紀錄的一年相比成長放緩。

  • Clearly, CSG had a fantastic year, and we are well positioned heading into FY '23 as the client systems TAM has reset to a higher level.

    顯然,CSG 度過了美妙的一年,隨著客戶端系統 TAM 已重置到更高水平,我們在進入 23 財年時處於有利位置。

  • I am very proud of our FY '22 results, our team and the company and the culture we've created. And I'm incredibly excited about the road ahead with all of you. We expect another year of growth as we modernize the data center with automation and intelligence, deploy IT at the edge and simplify multi-cloud for our customers.

    我對我們 22 財年的業績、我們的團隊、公司以及我們創造的文化感到非常自豪。我對與你們所有人一起前進的道路感到非常興奮。隨著我們透過自動化和智慧化實現資料中心現代化、在邊緣部署 IT 並為客戶簡化多雲,我們預計將實現成長。

  • And with that, I'll turn it over to Chuck for some color on ISG and our growth initiatives. Chuck?

    接下來,我將把它交給 Chuck,讓其了解 ISG 和我們的成長計劃。查克?

  • Chuck Whitten - Co-COO

    Chuck Whitten - Co-COO

  • Thanks, Jeff. FY '22 was, indeed, one for the record books. We're in a privileged strategic position. We ended the year with great momentum, and we're incredibly optimistic about FY '23 and beyond.

    謝謝,傑夫。 22 財年確實是載入史冊的一年。我們處於優越的戰略地位。我們以強勁的勢頭結束了這一年,我們對 23 財年及以後的前景非常樂觀。

  • Turning to full year ISG results. Fiscal '22 revenue was $34.4 billion, up 4% for the year and underpinned by 4 consecutive quarters of growth. Widespread digital transformation continues to accelerate growth in infrastructure spend, and we were encouraged by growing demand across our portfolio of ISG solutions.

    轉向 ISG 全年業績。 22 財年營收為 344 億美元,全年成長 4%,並受到連續 4 個季度成長的支撐。廣泛的數位轉型持續加速基礎設施支出的成長,我們對 ISG 解決方案組合不斷增長的需求感到鼓舞。

  • Specifically, FY '22 storage orders grew at the fastest rate since the EMC acquisition, and all geographies grew storage for the year. Midrange storage orders were up double digits in FY '22, and PowerStore remains the fastest-ramping storage product in our company's history. And demand for our leading server products accelerated over the course of the year, culminating with record server demand in Q4.

    具體來說,22 財年儲存訂單的成長速度是自 EMC 收購以來最快的,而且所有地區在這一年中都實現了儲存成長。 22 財年中端儲存訂單成長了兩位數,PowerStore 仍是我們公司史上成長最快的儲存產品。對我們領先伺服器產品的需求在這一年中加速成長,最終在第四季度創下了伺服器需求紀錄。

  • ISG operating income was $3.7 billion, flat year-over-year as both ISG revenue and margin were gated by supply constraints and corresponding backlog growth. As Jeff highlighted, we will continue to navigate the challenging supply environment with our differentiated business model, our advantaged supply chain, our product design flexibility, and our unique direct go-to-market, which creates a high-quality demand signal and gives us the ability to shape demand to where we have supply.

    ISG 營業收入為 37 億美元,與去年同期持平,因為 ISG 收入和利潤率均受到供應限制和相應積壓增長的限制。正如傑夫所強調的那樣,我們將繼續憑藉差異化的業務模式、優勢的供應鏈、產品設計的靈活性以及獨特的直接進入市場來應對充滿挑戰的供應環境,這創造了高品質的需求訊號,並為我們提供了支援。

  • Turning to Q4. Our final fiscal quarter of FY '22 was a microcosm of ISG's year, with strengthening demand across our storage and server portfolios. ISG demand was up 17% with revenue up 3% to $9.2 billion. Storage demand growth was up for a third consecutive quarter and in the high single digits.

    轉向第四季。我們 22 財年的最後一個財政季度是 ISG 這一年的縮影,我們的儲存和伺服器產品組合的需求不斷增強。 ISG 需求成長 17%,營收成長 3%,達到 92 億美元。儲存需求成長連續第三個季度實現高個位數成長。

  • Our leading storage portfolio, where we're #1 in high-end, midrange, entry, unstructured, object, all-flash, HCI and data protection, enabled us to capture growth across a variety of storage architectures and customer sizes. For example, we saw double-digit demand growth in the high end, driven by select enterprise customers, 25% demand growth for our unstructured storage solutions and 8% growth for HCI despite a tough year-over-year comparison.

    我們領先的儲存產品組合在高階、中階、入門級、非結構化、物件、全快閃、HCI 和資料保護領域排名第一,使我們能夠在各種儲存架構和客戶規模中實現成長。例如,在精選企業客戶的推動下,我們的高端需求實現了兩位數的成長,儘管同比比較艱難,但我們的非結構化儲存解決方案的需求成長了25%,HCI 的需求成長了8 %。

  • Within midrange, PowerStore demand continued to ramp in Q4, up 34% sequentially and now approximately 50% of our midrange SAN mix. Encouragingly, 26% of PowerStore buyers are new to Dell storage, and 29% were repeat buyers, important leading indicators of future growth. Servers and networking revenue was up for a fifth consecutive quarter, up 7%.

    在中階產品中,PowerStore 需求在第四季度持續成長,較上季成長 34%,目前約佔中階 SAN 組合的 50%。令人鼓舞的是,26% 的 PowerStore 買家是戴爾儲存的新買家,29% 是回頭客,這是未來成長的重要領先指標。伺服器和網路收入連續第五個季度成長,成長 7%。

  • Storage revenue was roughly flat year-over-year due to the aforementioned backlog build and storage software and services content that gets deferred and amortized over time. ISG operating income was $1.1 billion, down 7% due primarily to backlog growth, component inflation and logistics costs. We continue to take pricing actions to mitigate cost increases, though component shortages and turbulent logistics markets remain risks that we are actively managing.

    由於上述積壓建置和儲存軟體和服務內容隨著時間的推移而被推遲和攤銷,儲存收入比去年同期大致持平。 ISG 營業收入為 11 億美元,下降 7%,主要原因是積壓訂單成長、零件通膨和物流成本。儘管零件短缺和物流市場動盪仍然是我們正在積極管理的風險,但我們繼續採取定價措施來緩解成本增加。

  • In summary, FY '22 was a solid year for ISG as infrastructure markets rebounded, the business returned to growth, our leading indicators of server and storage demand were ahead of revenue, and our integrated business model continues to deliver despite challenging supply dynamics. ISG is poised for a strong FY '23, given the momentum in the business. Tom will share thoughts on forward guidance in a moment.

    總之,22 財年對ISG 來說是堅實的一年,因為基礎設施市場反彈,業務恢復成長,我們的伺服器和儲存需求領先指標領先於收入,儘管供應動態充滿挑戰,但我們的整合業務模式繼續交付。鑑於業務發展勢頭,ISG 預計將在 23 財年實現強勁成長。湯姆稍後將分享有關前瞻性指導的想法。

  • Before handing over to Tom, let me touch briefly on our priority growth initiatives. At our September analyst meeting, we highlighted multiple growth opportunities both inside and outside our core business, including over $650 billion in TAM adjacent to our core, where our asset positions and durable competitive advantages give us a right to win. These are distinct markets like edge and telco but also growth opportunities like our APEX branded as-a-service solutions that provide a modern consumption experience to our customers. Customers can buy our solutions, subscribe to our solutions and select from different types of services, including fully managed service offerings, depending on their needs.

    在交給湯姆之前,讓我先簡單介紹一下我們的優先成長計畫。在9 月的分析師會議上,我們強調了核心業務內部和外部的多個成長機會,其中包括與我們核心業務相鄰的價值超過6500 億美元的TAM,我們的資產地位和持久的競爭優勢使我們有獲勝的權利。這些是邊緣和電信等獨特的市場,但也有成長機會,例如我們的 APEX 品牌即服務解決方案,為我們的客戶提供現代消費體驗。客戶可以根據自己的需求購買我們的解決方案、訂閱我們的解決方案並選擇不同類型的服務,包括完全託管的服務產品。

  • FY '22 was an important year as we launch solutions in these spaces, engage customers and made investments that positioned us for future growth. We were pleased with our strategic technical and commercial momentum in these businesses. In particular, we saw a rapid acceleration of our APEX Flex on Demand subscription offering as the year progressed, an important market indicator that our APEX strategy is resonating with customers. We also delivered a steady stream of innovations and customer wins in edge and telco in FY '22, giving us conviction in our long-term strategy.

    22 財年是重要的一年,因為我們在這些領域推出了解決方案、吸引客戶並進行投資,為我們未來的成長奠定了基礎。我們對這些業務的策略技術和商業動能感到滿意。特別是,隨著時間的推移,我們看到我們的 APEX Flex 點播訂閱服務迅速加速,這是我們的 APEX 策略與客戶產生共鳴的重要市場指標。 22 財年,我們也在邊緣和電信領域實現了源源不絕的創新並贏得了客戶,這讓我們對長期策略充滿信心。

  • Noteworthy in Q4 was the expansion of our APEX Cloud Services portfolio with 2 new offers: APEX Multi-cloud Data Services, which delivers storage and data protection as-a-service with simultaneous access to all major public clouds through a single console. The solution allows customers to access the cloud services they want while maintaining control of their data on-premise, avoiding lock-in and egress fees and enabling customers to meet regulatory and compliance requirements; and APEX Backup Services, which provides scalable, secure data protection with centralized monitoring and management for SaaS applications, endpoints and hybrid workloads. The solution offers all-in-one protection with backup, disaster recovery and long-term data retention in a 100% SaaS-based offering with no infrastructure to manage.

    第四季值得注意的是我們的 APEX 雲端服務產品組合的擴展,推出了 2 個新產品:APEX 多雲資料服務,它提供儲存和資料保護即服務,並透過單一控制台同時存取所有主要公有雲。該解決方案允許客戶存取他們想要的雲端服務,同時保持對本地資料的控制,避免鎖定和出口費用,並使客戶能夠滿足監管和合規要求; APEX 備份服務,透過對 SaaS 應用程式、端點和混合工作負載的集中監控和管理,提供可擴展、安全的資料保護。該解決方案透過 100% 基於 SaaS 的產品提供備份、災難復原和長期資料保留等一體化保護,無需管理基礎設施。

  • FY '23 will be about continuing to push the innovation agenda in APEX, telco, edge and multi-cloud. As these growth initiatives become more actually material, we will provide more detail.

    23 財年將持續推動 APEX、電信、邊緣和多雲領域的創新議程。隨著這些成長舉措變得更加實際,我們將提供更多細節。

  • In closing, we enter FY '23 in a solid demand environment across our businesses and with a lot of confidence.

    最後,我們滿懷信心地進入了 23 財年,整個業務需求環境良好。

  • And with that, I will turn it over to Tom.

    有了這個,我會把它交給湯姆。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Chuck. In Q4, we delivered record revenue of $28 billion, up 16%, driven by another record quarter for CSG and continued growth in ISG, with demand for servers and storage well ahead of revenue.

    謝謝,查克。第四季度,我們的營收達到了創紀錄的 280 億美元,成長了 16%,這得益於 CSG 又一個創紀錄的季度以及 ISG 的持續成長,伺服器和儲存的需求遠遠超過營收。

  • Gross margin was $5.8 billion, flat year-over-year at 20.8% of revenue. Gross margin as a percentage of revenue was 320 basis points lower primarily due to higher-than-anticipated component and logistics costs and higher CSG mix. We continue to take pricing actions to manage the impact of commodity and logistics cost variability. Part shortages and supply chain risks remain across the economy, and we expect ISG backlog to remain elevated through at least the first half of fiscal '23.

    毛利率為 58 億美元,與去年同期持平,佔營收的 20.8%。毛利率佔收入的百分比下降了 320 個基點,主要是由於高於預期的零件和物流成本以及 CSG 組合的增加。我們繼續採取定價措施來管理商品和物流成本變化的影響。整個經濟領域仍然存在零件短缺和供應鏈風險,我們預計至少到 23 財年上半年,ISG 積壓仍將維持在高水準。

  • Operating expense was $3.6 billion, roughly flat year-over-year at 13% of revenue with the full year fiscal year '22 OpEx rate at 14.7%. We continue to invest for long-term growth but did benefit from lower compensation and benefits in the period.

    營運支出為 36 億美元,與去年同期基本持平,佔營收的 13%,22 財年全年營運支出率為 14.7%。我們繼續為長期成長進行投資,但確實受益於同期較低的薪資和福利。

  • Looking ahead to fiscal year '23, we expect OpEx as a percentage of revenue to be slightly higher than fiscal year '22 as we invest in the business, employees return to work, and we engage in more business-related travel.

    展望 23 財年,我們預計營運支出佔收入的百分比將略高於 22 財年,因為我們對業務進行投資,員工重返工作崗位,並且我們進行更多與商務相關的旅行。

  • Operating income was a record $2.2 billion, up 1% at 7.8% of revenue. This was slightly lower than our November guidance given the impact of supply chain disruptions.

    營業收入達到創紀錄的 22 億美元,成長 1%,佔營收的 7.8%。考慮到供應鏈中斷的影響,這略低於我們 11 月的指引。

  • Net income was $1.4 billion, up 2%, with growth in operating income and a decline in interest expense due to the reduced debt balances, offset by an increase in our effective tax rate.

    淨利潤為 14 億美元,成長 2%,營業收入成長,債務餘額減少導致利息支出下降,但有效稅率提高所抵銷。

  • Our tax rate was 25.1%, higher than we expected at the time of our Q3 earnings call. The higher rate was driven by corporate transactions, including the refinancing and tender we executed in December. The combined effect reduced income in higher tax jurisdictions, resulting in lower utilization of available tax credits. The total tax impact was a reduction of approximately $0.19 to diluted non-GAAP EPS.

    我們的稅率為 25.1%,高於我們在第三季財報電話會議上的預期。較高的利率是由公司交易推動的,包括我們在 12 月執行的再融資和招標。綜合效應減少了高稅收管轄區的收入,導致可用稅收抵免的利用率降低。總稅收影響是稀釋後非公認會計原則每股收益減少約 0.19 美元。

  • Fully diluted EPS was $1.72, down 2%, with diluted share count increasing to 810 million shares as a result of the VMware spin.

    完全稀釋後每股收益為 1.72 美元,下降 2%,由於 VMware 分拆,稀釋後股票數量增加至 8.1 億股。

  • Adjusted EBITDA was $2.7 billion, up 3% at 9.6% of revenue and was $9.7 billion, up 12%, for the full year.

    調整後 EBITDA 為 27 億美元,成長 3%,佔營收的 9.6%;全年調整後 EBITDA 為 97 億美元,成長 12%。

  • Our recurring revenue is approximately $5 billion a quarter, up 12%. Our remaining performance obligations, or RPO, is approximately $42 billion, up 20%, and includes deferred revenue plus committed contract value not included in deferred revenue.

    我們每季的經常性收入約為 50 億美元,成長 12%。我們的剩餘履約義務(RPO)約為 420 億美元,成長了 20%,其中包括遞延收入加上未包含在遞延收入中的承諾合約價值。

  • Dell Financial Services originations in Q4 were $2.7 billion, up 12%. DFS ended the quarter with $13.5 billion in total managed assets.

    戴爾金融服務第四季的營收為 27 億美元,成長 12%。截至本季末,DFS 管理資產總額為 135 億美元。

  • Turning to our cash flow and balance sheet. We generated strong cash flow as our cash flow from operations was $3.1 billion in Q4, mainly driven by top line growth and $2.7 billion of adjusted EBITDA. Q4 adjusted free cash flow was $3 billion.

    轉向我們的現金流和資產負債表。我們產生了強勁的現金流,第四季的營運現金流為 31 億美元,主要受到營收成長和 27 億美元調整後 EBITDA 的推動。第四季調整後自由現金流為 30 億美元。

  • We are happy with the disciplined management of our working capital, although we continue to see higher inventory levels given the supply chain dynamics and component availability. We expect inventory balances to come down as the supply chain situation improves over the coming year.

    我們對營運資金的嚴格管理感到滿意,儘管考慮到供應鏈動態和組件可用性,我們繼續看到庫存水準較高。我們預計,隨著來年供應鏈狀況的改善,庫存餘額將會下降。

  • We repaid $10.6 billion of debt in Q4, funded primarily with $9.3 billion in VMware dividend proceeds, and retired $1.7 billion in existing long-dated, high-coupon notes, funded through $2.25 billion in new bonds and balance sheet cash. The refinancing activity will save approximately $70 million in annual interest expense.

    我們在第四季度償還了106 億美元的債務,主要由93 億美元的VMware 股息收益提供資金,並註銷了17 億美元的現有長期高息票票據,透過22.5 億美元的新債券和資產負債表現金提供資金。再融資活動每年將節省約7,000萬美元的利息支出。

  • We exited Q4 with a core debt balance of $16.1 billion and a cash and investments balance of $11.3 billion.

    在第四季結束時,我們的核心債務餘額為 161 億美元,現金和投資餘額為 113 億美元。

  • Turning to capital allocation. As we have previously mentioned, we intend to return, on average, 40% to 60% of our adjusted free cash flow to shareholders over time. We repurchased 11.6 million shares of Class C common stock in Q4, totaling $659 million. And our intent is to continue buying shares going forward programmatically as we manage dilution and opportunistically return capital to shareholders, consistent with our capital allocation framework.

    轉向資本配置。正如我們之前提到的,隨著時間的推移,我們打算平均將 40% 至 60% 的調整後自由現金流回饋給股東。我們在第四季回購了 1,160 萬股 C 類普通股,總計 6.59 億美元。我們的目的是繼續有計劃地購買股票,同時我們管理稀釋並機會主義地向股東返還資本,這與我們的資本分配框架一致。

  • Additionally, since the end of Q4 and through the close of business last Friday, we have repurchased an additional 4.2 million shares for $248 million. Program to date, we have repurchased approximately 5.4% of the outstanding Class C common stock. To complement our share repurchase program, our Board has approved a Q1 dividend of $0.33 per share.

    此外,自第四季末至上週五收盤,我們已斥資 2.48 億美元額外回購了 420 萬股股票。計劃迄今為止,我們已回購了約 5.4% 的已發行 C 類普通股。為了補充我們的股票回購計劃,我們的董事會已批准第一季股息每股 0.33 美元。

  • We expect the cash impact of our quarterly dividend payments to be approximately $1 billion or roughly $1.32 per share for the full year, and we expect to have the opportunity over time to grow our dividend at least consistent with our long-term EPS growth in each case, subject to future Board approvals.

    我們預計季度股息支付的現金影響約為10 億美元或全年每股約1.32 美元,並且我們預計隨著時間的推移,我們將有機會增加股息,至少與我們每個季度的長期每股收益增長保持一致。

  • For more details on the dividend announcement, please review today's press release and Form 8-K. Alongside capital return to shareholders, we will continue to invest in the business, delever toward our 1.5x gross core leverage goal and pursue targeted M&A.

    有關股息公告的更多詳細信息,請查看今天的新聞稿和 8-K 表格。除了向股東回報資本外,我們還將繼續投資業務,實現 1.5 倍總核心槓桿率的目標,並進行有針對性的併購。

  • Before I provide thoughts on Q1 and full year guidance, I would like to invite Jeff back for a few comments on Ukraine.

    在我提供第一季和全年指導的想法之前,我想邀請傑夫回來就烏克蘭發表一些評論。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • Thanks, Tom.

    謝謝,湯姆。

  • Regarding Ukraine. First and foremost, our thoughts are with those families who have lost loved ones and all who are impacted. Our top priority at this time is supporting our Ukrainian team members as they attempt to relocate to a safe and secure environment. We are closely monitoring things and are working with employees to address their personal and family situations.

    關於烏克蘭。首先也是最重要的,我們與那些失去親人的家庭以及所有受到影響的人同在。我們目前的首要任務是支持我們的烏克蘭團隊成員嘗試搬遷到一個安全可靠的環境。我們正在密切關注事態發展,並與員工合作解決他們的個人和家庭問題。

  • As for business operations in the region, the situation is rapidly evolving, and we will share more details as they become available.

    至於該地區的業務運營,情況正在迅速變化,我們將在獲得更多詳細資訊後分享。

  • Back to you, Tom.

    回到你身邊,湯姆。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Jeff.

    謝謝,傑夫。

  • Turning to Q1 and fiscal year '23. We're optimistic about the overall macroeconomic environment with global IT spending projected in the mid-single digits. Digital transformation is a top priority for our customers, and it's fueling our growth as our customers look to Dell as their partner in their multi-cloud journey.

    轉向第一季和 23 財年。我們對整體宏觀經濟環境持樂觀態度,全球 IT 支出預計為中個位數。數位轉型是我們客戶的首要任務,隨著我們的客戶將戴爾視為他們多雲之旅的合作夥伴,數位轉型正在推動我們的成長。

  • Against that backdrop, we expect Q1 revenue between $24.5 billion and $25.7 billion, up 11% at the midpoint, with CSG and ISG growing.

    在此背景下,我們預計第一季營收將在 245 億美元至 257 億美元之間,中間值成長 11%,其中 CSG 和 ISG 將成長。

  • For non-GAAP tax rate, you should assume 20% plus or minus 100 basis points, driven by higher overall U.S. tax on foreign earnings and lower interest expense going forward. This guidance assumes U.S. rates are not affected by any tax reform. And based on my earlier share repurchase commentary, we expect Q1 diluted share count between 785 million to 790 million shares.

    對於非 GAAP 稅率,您應該假設 20% 正負 100 個基點,這是由於美國對海外收入的總體稅收較高以及未來利息支出較低。本指南假設美國稅率不受任何稅改的影響。根據我先前的股票回購評論,我們預計第一季稀釋後的股票數量將在 7.85 億股至 7.9 億股之間。

  • Netting this out, we expect non-GAAP diluted EPS in the range of $1.25 to $1.50, up 2% at the midpoint. I recognize that our EPS range is slightly wider than normal, but given a more dynamic component availability in logistics environment and elevated backlog, particularly in ISG, I believe it is appropriate.

    扣除此因素後,我們預計非 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益將在 1.25 美元至 1.50 美元之間,中間值將成長 2%。我認識到我們的 EPS 範圍比正常情況稍寬,但考慮到物流環境中組件可用性更加動態以及積壓量增加,特別是在 ISG 中,我認為這是合適的。

  • For fiscal year '23, we're coming off a very strong year with record performance in fiscal year '22. As a starting point, we suggest you align fiscal year '23 financial expectations with our long-term value creation framework, and we will provide an updated perspective on the year as we move forward.

    對於 23 財年,我們將迎來非常強勁的一年,並在 22 財年創下創紀錄的業績。作為起點,我們建議您將 23 財年的財務預期與我們的長期價值創造框架保持一致,隨著我們的前進,我們將提供有關這一年的最新觀點。

  • As a reminder, that's revenue growth in the 3% to 4% range and EPS growth at 6% or better over the long term. We also expect to deliver solid free cash flow and return significant capital back to shareholders with our announced dividend and share buybacks.

    提醒一下,從長遠來看,收入成長在 3% 到 4% 範圍內,每股收益成長在 6% 或更好。我們也期望透過宣布的股利和股票回購來提供穩定的自由現金流,並將大量資本返還給股東。

  • As we think about Ukraine, I will reiterate that, first and foremost, our thoughts are with everyone who has been impacted and supporting our team members in the region as we closely monitor the developing news there. While our direct revenue exposure to Ukraine and Russia is minimal on a percentage basis, it is too early to determine any broader potential impact to our Q1 guidance and our initial thoughts on fiscal year '23.

    當我們想到烏克蘭時,我要重申,首先也是最重要的是,我們的心與所有受到影響並支持我們在該地區的團隊成員的人同在,同時我們密切關注那裡的新聞動態。雖然我們對烏克蘭和俄羅斯的直接收入按百分比計算很小,但現在確定對我們第一季指導和我們對 23 財年的初步想法的任何更廣泛的潛在影響還為時過早。

  • In closing, we delivered an extraordinary year with record revenue, operating income, EPS and cash flow. We delivered significant shareholder value through the spinoff of VMware, the sale of Boomi and disciplined and consistent debt paydown, resulting in an investment-grade rating. We also introduced a comprehensive capital allocation framework and began shareholder capital return actions with share buybacks and the announcement of a dividend.

    最後,我們度過了非凡的一年,收入、營業收入、每股盈餘和現金流均創歷史新高。我們透過剝離 VMware、出售 Boomi 以及嚴格、一致的債務償還,實現了顯著的股東價值,從而獲得了投資等級評級。我們還引入了全面的資本配置框架,並透過股票回購和宣布股利開始了股東資本回報行動。

  • We remain focused on executing our strategy to consolidate and modernize our core and build new growth engines that enable our customers' multi-cloud future while delivering revenue and EPS growth with strong free cash flow to our shareholders over time.

    我們仍然專注於執行我們的策略,以鞏固和現代化我們的核心,並建立新的成長引擎,使我們客戶的多雲未來成為可能,同時隨著時間的推移為我們的股東帶來強勁的自由現金流和營收和每股收益成長。

  • With that, I'll turn it back to Rob to begin Q&A.

    接下來,我將把它轉回給 Rob 來開始問答。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • Thanks, Tom. Let's go to Q&A. (Operator Instructions) Erica, can you introduce the first question?

    謝謝,湯姆。讓我們進入問答環節。 (操作員指示)Erica,您能介紹一下第一個問題嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our first question from Shannon Cross with Cross Research.

    我們將回答來自 Cross Research 的 Shannon Cross 的第一個問題。

  • Shannon Siemsen Cross - Co-Founder, Principal & Analyst

    Shannon Siemsen Cross - Co-Founder, Principal & Analyst

  • I was wondering if you can talk about how -- in general, how you're managing price increases. And given the pressures you're seeing on components and obviously, the questions geopolitically and everything that's going on right now, how should we think about timing of the benefit of these price increases to run through both CSG and ISG? And also, if you can talk about whether or not you think the moves will be sufficient enough to offset inflation and the component costs or if there -- at some point, you -- or maybe nobody knows, but at some point, you start to see some pushback because of elasticity of demand.

    我想知道您是否可以談談一般情況下您是如何管理價格上漲的。考慮到零件面臨的壓力,顯然還有地緣政治問題以及目前正在發生的一切,我們應該如何考慮這些價格上漲的好處何時貫穿 CSG 和 ISG?而且,如果你可以談論你是否認為這些舉措足以抵消通貨膨脹和零部件成本,或者如果有——在某個時候,你——或者也許沒有人知道,但在某個時候,你開始由於需求彈性而出現一些阻力。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Shannon, let me chat a little bit about that, then I'll ask Jeff and potentially Chuck to weigh in as well. So Look, in general, as you think about management of price increases, what we have been doing as we see costs that are -- that have been moving upward on us, effectively, given the volatility we're seeing particularly in the semiconductor space and the dynamics of when parts are arriving at our various factories, we have been adjusting prices as appropriate. I think part of the dynamic that we're seeing right now, though, is that given the fact that we do have elevated backlog, any price increases you're seeing are generally somewhat muted as you think through the impact to the P&L, given that it's got a flow-through backlog.

    香農,讓我談談這個問題,然後我會請傑夫和可能的查克也參與其中。所以,總的來說,當你考慮價格上漲的管理時,我們一直在做什麼,因為我們看到成本一直在上升,有效地考慮到我們看到的波動性,特別是在半導體領域以及零件到達我們各個工廠時的動態,我們一直在適當調整價格。不過,我認為我們現在看到的部分動態是,考慮到我們的積壓確實增加了,當你考慮對損益表的影響時,你看到的任何價格上漲通常都會有所減弱。

  • And so to the extent you have elevated backlog, which we clearly do in ISG and we're at the upper end of what we would characterize as the new normal in CSG, that's going to be a bit of a headwind in terms of the pricing activities ultimately manifesting themselves in the P&L.

    因此,就積壓情況而言,我們在 ISG 中顯然做到了這一點,而且我們正處於我們所描述的 CSG 新常態的上限,這在定價方面將是一個不利因素活動最終體現在損益表中。

  • But our perspective is, look, to adjust prices as appropriate, we're always mindful of the market dynamic, to your point around elasticity, but we're also in an inflationary environment, which we're in, and we see that across multiple industries, as you would all know, it's appropriate that we readjust pricing and make sure that we're getting appropriate value for our solutions.

    但我們的觀點是,看看,適當調整價格,我們總是關注市場動態,就你所說的彈性而言,但我們也處於通膨環境中,我們所處的環境,我們看到這一點正如你們所知,對於多個行業,我們重新調整定價並確保我們的解決方案獲得適當的價值是適當的。

  • Jeff or Chuck, I don't know if you would add anything to that.

    傑夫或查克,我不知道你是否願意補充一些內容。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • Maybe a couple of comments, Shannon. One is, as we look at total input costs, we just went through an inflationary period in Q4. We think component costs go down slightly in Q1, offset by a flat to probably slightly increasing logistics costs to move material around to the factories when they're delivered. So one of our biggest challenges that we've been working through is chasing those costs that are associated with the volatility, the uncertainty of when parts show up out of factories that we can move them to our subassembly facilities to turn them ultimately into finished products.

    也許有一些評論,香農。一是,當我們考慮總投入成本時,我們剛剛經歷了第四季的通膨期。我們認為第一季零件成本略有下降,但被交付時將材料運送到工廠的物流成本持平甚至可能略有上升所抵消。因此,我們一直在努力解決的最大挑戰之一是追尋與波動性相關的成本,以及零件何時從工廠出來的不確定性,我們可以將它們轉移到我們的組裝設施,最終將它們變成成品。

  • And it's that volatility, if you will, or uncertainty that we're -- certainly is catching us a little bit, maybe a surprise. We didn't see as much expedites of moving material around, which led to some of the compression in margin that you -- we've talked about. And so it's that precise thing that we're trying to get even more accurate about.

    如果你願意的話,正是這種波動性,或者說我們所面臨的不確定性——肯定讓我們有點驚訝,也許是個驚喜。我們沒有看到那麼多的材料移動速度,這導致了我們已經討論過的利潤率壓縮。因此,我們正試圖更加準確地了解這一點。

  • When you look at the pricing environment that we're operating in today, as costs go up, it's being transferred into price. Whether that's commercial PCs, whether that's the premium consumer side of our business, we're seeing the same thing broadly across the server base, and the same is true in our storage base. So that cost is being transferred into price as efficiently as we can where we understand it and we could be planful and mindful. It's that volatility and uncertainty that is, I don't know if it's the right word to describe it, that it can't plan for it and we're responding as fast as we can. And the higher levels of backlog, it's less efficient at capturing it. I hope that helped.

    當你看看我們今天所處的定價環境時,隨著成本的上升,它正在轉移到價格上。無論是商用個人電腦,還是我們業務的高端消費者方面,我們在整個伺服器基礎上都看到了同樣的情況,在我們的儲存基礎上也是如此。因此,在我們理解的情況下,成本會盡可能有效地轉化為價格,我們可以有計劃和謹慎。這就是波動性和不確定性,我不知道用這個詞來形容它是否合適,它無法為此做好計劃,而我們正在盡快做出反應。而且積壓的程度越高,捕捉積壓的效率就越低。我希望這有幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from David Vogt with UBS.

    我們將回答瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的 David Vogt 提出的下一個問題。

  • David Vogt - Analyst

    David Vogt - Analyst

  • So just maybe when we think about the context of the full year from a demand perspective and all of the different moving pieces from a supply chain, I think Tom and Jeff and Chuck all mentioned, the second half of the year is at the earliest we're going to see some improvement. Is that what's sort of underpinning sort of the long-term framework sort of the reiteration that we're thinking about? And if so, is there a way to quantify potentially what that revenue impact is from supply chain right now? I know it's sort of a difficult question to answer, but just trying to get a sense for how revenue is being held back by the supply chain at this point.

    因此,也許當我們從需求的角度考慮全年的背景以及供應鏈中所有不同的移動部件時,我認為湯姆、傑夫和查克都提到,今年下半年我們最早將會看到一些改進。這就是我們正在考慮的重申的長期框架的基礎嗎?如果是這樣,有沒有辦法量化目前供應鏈對收入的潛在影響?我知道這是一個很難回答的問題,但只是想了解目前供應鏈如何阻礙收入。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • David, I think you have to think about it like that. And as we think about the year right now, and let me reiterate that we're optimistic about the year from a demand environment perspective with what we know today, that we do expect -- the guidance I gave you around Q1 revenue and a midpoint of 11% year-over-year growth, we will continue to work our way through the supply chain dynamics. But particularly within -- first with ISG, we do expect those headwinds to be with us at least through the first half of the year, right?

    大衛,我認為你必須這樣考慮。當我們現在思考今年時,讓我重申,從需求環境的角度來看,我們對今年持樂觀態度,根據我們今天所了解的情況,我們確實預計——我為您提供的有關第一季收入和中點的指引年增 11%,我們將繼續努力改善供應鏈動態。但尤其是在 ISG 內部,我們確實預計這些阻力至少會持續到今年上半年,對嗎?

  • And so I think you've got -- as we laid out the long-term guidance for you, I want you to think about how your sequentials interact as we go through the year, but I think a good starting point is the long-term framework. And clearly, as the situation becomes clearer in terms of the logistics dynamics that -- and the supply chain that we're seeing, we'll update you.

    所以我認為你已經——當我們為你制定長期指導時,我希望你思考你的序列在我們度過這一年的過程中如何相互作用,但我認為一個好的起點是長期——術語框架。顯然,隨著物流動態以及我們所看到的供應鏈的情況變得更加清晰,我們將向您通報最新情況。

  • The other point I'd like to make, though, is around -- although we've talked about ISG backlog being at an elevated level, we do expect, quite frankly, a little bit of headwind in the CSG space in Q1 with -- particularly with desktops, given some of the component shortages we're seeing. So those are the navigation that we're going to have to do as we work our way through the first quarter and, quite frankly, I think the first half, but optimistic about the year. And as you work your way through your modeling, I think just keep in mind that the concept of perhaps normal sequentials aren't quite as -- it's been a few years of variability as we've worked our way through the year. But again, I think the year, as we see it today, we're optimistic about the full year framework that we've laid out.

    不過,我想指出的另一點是——儘管我們已經討論過 ISG 積壓的情況處於較高水平,但坦率地說,我們確實預計第一季 CSG 領域會遇到一些阻力—— - 特別是台式機,考慮到我們看到的一些組件短缺。因此,這些是我們在第一季工作時必須做的導航,坦白說,我認為是上半年,但對今年持樂觀態度。當你按照自己的方式進行建模時,我想請記住,也許正常序列的概念並不完全是——隨著我們這一年的工作,它已經經歷了幾年的變化。但我再次認為,正如我們今天所看到的那樣,我們對我們所製定的全年框架感到樂觀。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

    我們將回答美國銀行 Wamsi Mohan 提出的下一個問題。

  • Wamsi Mohan - MD in Americas Equity Research

    Wamsi Mohan - MD in Americas Equity Research

  • Jeff, you noted growth in commercial PC and premium consumer to continue into fiscal '23. I was wondering how you're thinking about the growth. How concerned are you about inventory levels? I know you noted that CSG backlog is expected to improve -- increase here in the near term. And any help you can give us about how you're thinking about ASP trends as well, given the moving pieces on the commodity environment?

    Jeff,您注意到商用 PC 和高階消費者的成長將持續到 23 財年。我想知道您如何看待成長。您對庫存水準有多關心?我知道您注意到 CSG 積壓訂單預計會有所改善——短期內會增加。考慮到商品環境的變化,您可以提供我們有關您如何看待 ASP 趨勢的協助嗎?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • Sure, Wamsi. I think that was 3 different questions. I'll try to get to all of them. So first off, if we step back and we look at the environment, we've just gone through 3 consecutive years of growth getting the PC industry back to roughly 350 million units, and the TAM we believe has been reset. And if you look at where a large percentage of that growth has come from, it's come from commercial PCs and consumer PCs, generally an area that we're very strong in. Commercial PCs represent roughly 75% of our revenues.

    當然,瓦姆西。我認為這是 3 個不同的問題。我會盡力接觸到所有這些人。首先,如果我們退一步看看環境,我們剛剛經歷了連續 3 年的成長,使 PC 產業回到了大約 3.5 億台,我們認為 TAM 已經重置。如果你看看這一成長的很大一部分來自何處,你會發現它來自商用 PC 和消費性 PC,這通常是我們非常擅長的領域。

  • Our view is those 2 premium sectors continue to grow. In calendar '22 or fiscal '23, we have commercial PCs growing mid-single digits, and we have premium consumer PCs growing low single digits. We obviously expect to take share on top of those numbers. Where the pressure will be is in low end and mid-consumer price bands and in Chrome. You've heard us probably talk about this. Not all units are created equal. Some units are more valuable than others. We believe we play in the most valuable space, commercial PCs and premium consumer PCs. So we're optimistic that we grow those valuable sectors, so the market grows in those valuable sectors, and we can continue to be a consolidator there.

    我們的觀點是,這兩個優質產業將繼續成長。在 22 年曆或 23 財年,我們的商用 PC 成長了中個位數,而高階消費 PC 則成長了低個位數。我們顯然希望在這些數字之上獲得份額。壓力將出現在低階和中端消費者價格區間以及 Chrome 中。您可能聽過我們談論過這件事。並非所有單位都是生而平等的。有些單位比其他單位更有價值。我們相信我們涉足最有價值的領域:商用電腦和高階消費電腦。因此,我們樂觀地認為,我們會發展這些有價值的領域,因此這些有價值的領域的市場會成長,我們可以繼續成為那裡的整合者。

  • If we look at the ASP trends, the ASP trends have continued to move up as the commodity base has been inflationary. And then clearly, what I mentioned earlier, the increased cost in moving material, moving parts associated with logistics costs, have certainly driven a pricing action as well.

    如果我們觀察平均售價趨勢,就會發現隨著商品基礎的通貨膨脹,平均售價趨勢持續上升。顯然,正如我之前提到的,與物流成本相關的移動材料、移動零件的成本增加,肯定也推動了定價行為。

  • The pricing environment that we see today that I mentioned a little bit earlier is there is pressure as inventory levels come back to norm on midrange to low-end consumer price bands and into Chrome. We still see challenges in getting all of the material for the premium price points in consumer and in commercial. So that's why Tom just made a reference, for example, in desktops and displays, we actually see backlog building demand ahead of supply, if you will, in Q1 as we've spent the last 2 quarters, reducing the backlog of our PC business.

    我之前提到過,我們今天看到的定價環境有壓力,因為中低端消費價格帶和 Chrome 的庫存水準恢復到正常水準。我們仍然看到在消費者和商業領域以高價位獲得所有材料的挑戰。這就是為什麼湯姆剛才提到,例如,在桌上型電腦和顯示器方面,我們實際上看到積壓的需求超過了供應,如果你願意的話,在第一季度,因為我們在過去的兩個季度中,減少了我們個人電腦業務的積壓。

  • And in terms of absolute inventory, we've continued to take material we know that we need because if you don't take it, it's going somewhere else. That environment largely exists in the most valuable commodities.

    就絕對庫存而言,我們繼續獲取我們知道需要的材料,因為如果你不獲取它,它就會流向其他地方。這種環境主要存在於最有價值的商品中。

  • I think I got all those answered.

    我想我已經得到了所有這些答案。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Tom Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

    你的下一個問題來自湯姆·薩科納吉和伯恩斯坦的對話。

  • A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

    A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

  • It's Toni Sacconaghi. I just wanted to peel back the guidance a little bit more. So if I look at Q1, you're guiding for down about 11% sequentially, you're typically down 8%, I think, is the average over the last 5 years. It sounds like you're going to build backlog in PCs. Are you anticipating that your ISG backlog is also going to grow? Or is there -- is it solely attributable to PCs?

    我是托尼·薩科納吉。我只是想進一步剝離指導。因此,如果我看看第一季度,您預計會連續下降約 11%,我認為通常會下降 8%,這是過去 5 年的平均值。聽起來你要在電腦上積壓積壓的工作。您是否預期 ISG 積壓訂單也會增加?或是否存在——這完全歸因於個人電腦?

  • And then, again, thinking about the full year, if you're guiding for 11% growth in Q1 and you have kind of normal seasonality in Q2, it calls for negative growth in the second half. And it sounds like ISG will get stronger over the course of the year. So that means pretty negative growth in PCs overall. Is that the message you're trying to communicate? Or what's wrong with my logic there?

    然後,再次考慮全年,如果您指導第一季成長 11%,而第二季有某種正常的季節性,那麼下半年就會出現負成長。聽起來 ISG 在這一年會變得更強大。因此,這意味著個人電腦整體呈現負成長。這就是你想要傳達的訊息嗎?或者我的邏輯有什麼問題?

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Look, I don't think we see negative growth in PCs overall, Toni. And I think what we see...

    是的。東尼,我認為我們總體上並沒有看到個人電腦出現負增長。我認為我們所看到的......

  • A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

    A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

  • In the second half.

    下半場。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Right. I just think -- as I said, we expect ISG and CSG to grow in Q1. Yes, there are headwinds, and we do expect ISG backlog to expand in Q1. And with what we understand about PC component availability, we do expect some PC backlog growth. That's the reason for some of the caution in, one, in the revenue dynamics I gave you; but more importantly, in some of the EPS spread that I gave you, just given some of the variability that we see.

    正確的。我只是認為——正如我所說,我們預計 ISG 和 CSG 在第一季將實現成長。是的,存在阻力,而且我們確實預計 ISG 積壓訂單將在第一季擴大。根據我們對 PC 組件可用性的了解,我們確實預計 PC 積壓訂單會有所成長。這就是我在以下方面保持謹慎的原因:第一,我向您提供的收入動態;但更重要的是,在我給你的一些每股盈餘利差中,考慮到我們看到的一些變化。

  • As we work our way, if you think about sort of the midpoint of that guidance, I think that we see positive growth through the remainder of the year overall with what we know today. So we can take this off-line from a modeling perspective, but that's our thinking right now. We're optimistic about the year. The trends are in our favor. There is some short-term navigation we need to do with the supply chain dynamics.

    當我們按照我們的方式工作時,如果你考慮一下該指導方針的中點,我認為根據我們今天所知道的情況,我們會在今年剩餘時間內看到積極的增長。因此,我們可以從建模的角度將其離線,但這就是我們現在的想法。我們對今年持樂觀態度。趨勢對我們有利。 我們需要對供應鏈動態進行一些短期導航。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Jim Suva with Citigroup.

    我們將回答花旗集團吉姆·蘇瓦的下一個問題。

  • James Dickey Suva - MD & Research Analyst

    James Dickey Suva - MD & Research Analyst

  • I just have 1 question. And that is you commented on your prepared comments about assessing the Western Digital situation. I just wanted to get some colors of I assume it's not that you got some contaminated bad drives out into your inventory and into the system; I assume it has more to do with supply availability and maybe even pricing. Is that right? And I assume -- or can you let us know that you have more than 1 supplier for that and kind of what you meant by those commentaries for the various outcomes?

    我只有 1 個問題。這就是您對您準備好的有關評估西部數據情況的評論的評論。我只是想得到一些顏色,我認為這並不是因為您的庫存和系統中出現了一些受污染的壞驅動器;我認為這與供應情況甚至定價有更多關係。是這樣嗎?我假設——或者您能否讓我們知道您有不止 1 個供應商,以及您對各種結果的評論是什麼意思?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • Happy to answer, Jim. Yes, we have multiple partners in the world of NAND and SSDs for both client and enterprise class products. The reference that I was making is the announcement by Kioxa and Western Digital about the contamination that occurred in their factories, which means product in the factories today is contaminated. And sometime in the future, there's going to be a gap. Typically, when there's a gap of supply in a commodity that is in great demand, we see pricing pressure.

    很高興回答,吉姆。是的,我們在客戶端和企業級產品的 NAND 和 SSD 領域擁有多個合作夥伴。我所指的是 Kioxa 和西部數據關於其工廠發生污染的公告,這意味著今天工廠的產品受到了污染。而在未來的某個時候,就會出現差距。通常,當需求量大的商品出現供應缺口時,我們就會看到定價壓力。

  • So what we're trying to communicate is there's an unknown of a reasonably large size. Those 2 companies represent a large percentage of output, and that output is at risk with the contaminated factories that will have a supply impact in the future, and we're just signaling that going forward.

    所以我們試圖傳達的是存在一個相當大的未知數。這兩家公司佔產出的很大一部分,而受污染的工廠的產出面臨風險,這將對未來的供應產生影響,我們只是發出這樣的訊號。

  • I hope that -- did I answer it? I hope. I think I did.

    我希望──我回答了嗎?我希望。我想我做到了。

  • James Dickey Suva - MD & Research Analyst

    James Dickey Suva - MD & Research Analyst

  • That was great color.

    那是很棒的顏色。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

    我們將回答西蒙·利奧波德和雷蒙德·詹姆斯提出的下一個問題。

  • Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

    Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

  • You've made this comment about having drawn down some of the backlog in PCs but then expecting backlog to build after the quarter. And I guess, I'm trying to really split hairs a bit and understand, is the rebuild of a backlog the result of demand or supply constraints or a combination? If you could unpack what's leading to backlog rising again.

    您曾評論說,已經減少了個人電腦的一些積壓訂單,但隨後預計積壓訂單將在本季後增加。我想,我正試著真正分頭去理解,積壓的重建是需求或供應限制的結果,還是兩者結合的結果?如果您能解開導致積壓再次增加的原因。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • Do you want me take that, Tom?

    你要我拿那個嗎,湯姆?

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • You start, Jeff, and I'll jump in.

    傑夫,你開始,我也加入。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • If we look at each of the categories, what we're signaling is the semiconductor shortage that we've been talking about for a long time persists. Trailing nodes, whether it be a 40-nanometer node, a 55-nanometer node, 60-nanometer node, et cetera, a plethora of parts that go across all our devices continue to be in short supply. The output of that supply is nonlinear, meaning that sometimes it comes and sometimes it doesn't, sometimes it shows up on time, sometimes it's delayed. Working through that and taking advantage of our assembly capacity is ultimately the challenge in timing and the optimization that we're running through.

    如果我們審視每個類別,我們所發出的信號是我們長期以來一直在談論的半導體短缺問題仍然存在。尾隨節點,無論是 40 奈米節點、55 奈米節點、60 奈米節點等等,貫穿我們所有設備的大量零件仍然供不應求。此電源的輸出是非線性的,這意味著有時會出現,有時不會,有時會按時出現,有時會延遲。解決這個問題並利用我們的組裝能力最終是我們正在經歷的時間表和優化方面的挑戰。

  • So what we're signaling is that semiconductor shortage continues to hit our CSG product, most notably in our high-end display business and desktops, as Tom called out. And demand -- we see demand continuing, and our supply is short of that demand, hence, the backlog growth.

    因此,我們要發出的信號是,半導體短缺繼續影響我們的 CSG 產品,尤其是我們的高階顯示器業務和桌上型電腦,正如 Tom 所指出的那樣。需求-我們看到需求持續存在,但我們的供應不足,因此積壓訂單增加。

  • On the server side, same sort of thing with network controllers and microcontrollers and power ICs, those have been the ones that I've called out into the past. They continue to be in short supply, and demand is ahead of that supply, hence, the backlog build. And then a very similar trend, which we saw in Q4, we believe continues through the first half of this year, which is in storage, which is notably around the FPGAs and CPLDs, all of the high-speed programmable logic devices that are in those controllers that we need, again, demand ahead of supply, backlog build.

    在伺服器端,網路控制器、微控制器和電源 IC 也是如此,這些都是我過去提到過的。它們仍然供不應求,而需求超過了供應,因此出現了積壓。然後,我們在第四季度看到的一個非常相似的趨勢,我們相信會持續到今年上半年,這是在存儲領域,特別是圍繞 FPGA 和 CPLD,所有高速可編程邏輯器件都在我們需要的那些控制器,再次,需求先於供應,積壓建造。

  • So that's what we're signaling. We're signaling, I think, in Chuck's remarks and my remarks, growth in our businesses, but it's challenged with the supply.

    這就是我們發出的信號。我認為,在查克的言論和我的言論中,我們正在發出信號,表明我們的業務正在成長,但它受到了供應的挑戰。

  • Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

    Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

  • So just to paraphrase, to make sure we all understand, demand is stable, supply chain is worse?

    簡而言之,為了確保我們都明白,需求穩定,供應鏈更糟?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • Supply chain continues to be challenged. It's pretty dynamic. There's a fair amount of uncertainty. It has worsened in Q4 in servers and in storage. We think that continues into the first half and after 2 years -- or 2 quarters, excuse me, of backlog burn down on the PC side. In those 2 categories of displays and desktops, it has worsened.

    供應鏈持續面臨挑戰。這是非常動態的。存在相當大的不確定性。伺服器和儲存領域的情況在第四季度有所惡化。我們認為這種情況會持續到上半年,並且在兩年後——或者說是兩個季度,對不起,PC 端的積壓工作會被燒毀。在顯示器和桌上型電腦這兩類中,情況變得更糟。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

    我們將回答 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani 提出的下一個問題。

  • Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • I guess I have 1 as well. If I think about the EPS growth in fiscal '22 and certainly, you talk about long-term framework of 6% EPS growth, how does that break up, you think, in '22 between stock buybacks versus operating profit dollars growth? And maybe on the operating profit dollars growth, you can just talk about, do you see CSG and ISG margins going up in '23? Or what are the puts and takes there? That would be helpful.

    我想我也有1個。如果我考慮 22 財年的每股盈餘成長,當然,你談論的是 6% 每股盈餘成長的長期框架,你認為,在 22 財年股票回購與營業利潤美元成長之間如何分解?也許在營業利潤美元成長方面,您可以談談,您認為 CSG 和 ISG 的利潤率在 23 年會上升嗎?或者那裡有哪些看跌期權和賣出期權?那會有幫助的。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Amit, as it relates to the EPS growth that we chatted about are 6%-plus, right? So Look, I think you got to think about it like this. When we introduced -- if you remember the capital -- as you recall, the capital allocation framework, which is 40% to 60% shareholder capital return through a combination of share buyback and dividends, obviously, we've enacted that. We are using the share buyback program to manage dilution principally coming out of the LTI programs and the dilution that came out of the VMware spin.

    是的。阿米特,因為它與我們談論的每股收益增長有關,是 6% 以上,對嗎?所以聽著,我認為你必須這樣考慮。當我們引入——如果你還記得資本的話——你還記得,資本配置框架,即透過股票回購和股息相結合實現40% 到60% 的股東資本回報,顯然,我們已經制定了這一框架。我們正在使用股票回購計劃來管理主要來自 LTI 計劃的稀釋以及來自 VMware 業務的稀釋。

  • And so from our perspective, as you move forward, if you think about our Q1 guidance, for instance, I do think that you should expect that we're in the quarter somewhere around 785 million to 790 million shares from an EPS, our share count perspective. And then will be somewhat programmatic as we move forward. And so while I don't want to get into forecasting share buyback, I will tell you that we will be thoughtful about how we do that.

    因此,從我們的角度來看,當你向前邁進時,如果你考慮我們的第一季度指導,例如,我確實認為你應該預期我們在本季度的每股收益(EPS)中約為7.85 億至7.9 億股。然後隨著我們的前進,將會有一定的程序性。因此,雖然我不想預測股票回購,但我會告訴你,我們將仔細考慮如何做到這一點。

  • We do expect -- as it relates to operating profit margin, look, I think overall, on an overall annual basis, somewhere in the -- I think if you look at consistently, we've been around $7.7 billion, $7.8 billion over the last number of years from an op inc perspective. I think we're probably somewhere $7.7 billion maybe slightly right around that range if you look for the year.

    我們確實預計——因為它與營業利潤率有關,我認為總體而言,在總體年度基礎上,在——我認為如果你持續觀察的話,我們的營業利潤率大約為77 億美元,過去78 億美元。我認為如果你看看今年的話,我們可能會在 77 億美元左右,也許稍微接近這個範圍。

  • I don't want to get into overall op margins by business. That's not something we give guidance on. But I will tell you that, look, I mean, part of what's going to be interesting for us is as we continue to drive storage demand, there is opportunity for operating margin and ISG to continue to expand. Obviously, from a CSG perspective, the last couple of years have been quite strong from an operating margin perspective. More historically, they have not been quite as strong. Some of this -- there will be some variability this year as we work our way through supply chain, the mix of the business and the demand dynamics. But overall, we think profitability should be reasonable.

    我不想按業務劃分整體營運利潤率。這不是我們提供指導的內容。但我會告訴你,我的意思是,我們感興趣的部分是,隨著我們繼續推動儲存需求,營運利潤率和 ISG 有機會繼續擴大。顯然,從南方電網的角度來看,過去幾年的營業利益率相當強勁。從更歷史的角度來看,它們並沒有那麼強大。其中一些——今年隨著我們在供應鏈、業務組合和需求動態方面的工作,將會出現一些變化。但整體而言,我們認為獲利能力應該是合理的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs.

    我們將回答高盛羅德霍爾 (Rod Hall) 提出的下一個問題。

  • Roderick B. Hall - MD

    Roderick B. Hall - MD

  • I just wanted to ask about the implied margin trajectory into fiscal Q1 in the guidance. It looks like you're guiding at least down at the EBT level, that margin down a little bit. And I wonder whether or at least you'd be willing to say that that's kind of where you see the bottom on margins. Or do you think there's potential for margins to deteriorate further? And then I have a follow-up to that.

    我只是想詢問指導中第一財季的隱含利潤率軌跡。看起來你至少在 EBT 水平上進行了下調,利潤率下降了一點。我想知道您是否或至少願意說,這就是您看到利潤率底部的地方。或者您認為利潤率有可能進一步惡化嗎?然後我有一個後續行動。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Rod, I would think as you think about our guidance for Q1, I think if I walk the P&L for you a little bit, we gave you a revenue range, obviously, of $24.5 billion to $25.7 billion. We did talk about a tax rate of 20%. I gave you some indication on where we think OpEx needs is probably going to trend for the year. But I would think in Q1, that's pretty consistent as you bring OpEx up from that 14.7% by roughly, call it, 40 basis points, 40 to 50 basis points, as we move through the year. And then you think about the EPS I gave you, you've gotten the tax rate.

    羅德,我想當你考慮我們對第一季的指導時,我想如果我為你稍微分析一下損益表,我們給你的收入範圍顯然是 245 億美元到 257 億美元。我們確實討論過 20% 的稅率。我向您提供了一些關於我們認為今年營運支出需求可能趨勢的指示。但我認為,在第一季度,這相當一致,因為隨著這一年的推移,營運支出從 14.7% 大約上升了 40 個基點、40 到 50 個基點。然後你想想我給你的每股盈餘,你已經得到了稅率。

  • I think interest and other is an area that we should chat about quickly just because, if you did Q4 times 4, given the amount of debt repay, you get somewhere around $1.3 billion of interest and other. I do think there will be, at some point during the year, probably later in the year, as we continue to focus on delevering, as we've talked about trending -- moving to 1.8x down to 1.5x core leverage that we will do some debt repayment. That probably -- since I've used -- I don't have any more prepayable debt, that's probably somewhere -- there will be a make well premium there. So somewhere in the -- probably safe to say somewhere in the $150 million to $200 million for the full year on -- for I/O, so you're closer to 1.5.

    我認為利息和其他是我們應該快速討論的一個領域,因為如果你將第四季度做四次,考慮到債務償還金額,你會得到大約 13 億美元的利息和其他。我確實認為,在今年的某個時候,可能是在今年晚些時候,我們將繼續專注於去槓桿化,正如我們所討論的趨勢——將核心槓桿率從 1.8 倍降至 1.5 倍,我們將償還一些債務。這可能——因為我已經使用了——我沒有更多的可預付債務,這可能在某個地方——那裡會有一筆補償金。因此,全年的 I/O 費用大概可以安全地說是 1.5 億到 2 億美元,所以更接近 1.5。

  • I think if you put all of those pieces together, you're going to come up to an operating -- or gross margin in Q1 that's slightly higher than where we ended Q4, given some of the mix of business as we look at it today. So that's -- I think that's generally how we're thinking about Q1.

    我認為,如果將所有這些部分放在一起,考慮到我們今天看到的一些業務組合,第一季的營業利潤率或毛利率將略高於第四季末的水平。我認為這就是我們對第一季的普遍看法。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • I'm going to try and keep moving here just in the interest of folks to get on the call for a question. So I appreciate your question.

    我將嘗試繼續搬到這裡,只是為了人們能夠接受電話提問。所以我很欣賞你的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

    我們將回答摩根大通 Samik Chatterjee 提出的下一個問題。

  • Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

    Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

  • My question was really on the VMware relationship or the reseller relationship here. If I'm doing my math right, it does look like the revenue is translating to the profit line, roughly an operating loss in the quarter of about $70 million or so. So I just wanted to check if I'm doing the math right there, and if that's the quarterly run rate we should be assuming going forward. Or is there some seasonality to it that we should be mindful of? And certainly, how to think about sort of getting that back to a positive run rate in the future, what time period we should be thinking about?

    我的問題實際上是關於 VMware 關係或這裡的經銷商關係。如果我算得對的話,看起來收入確實正在轉化為利潤線,本季的營業虧損大約是 7,000 萬美元左右。所以我只是想檢查一下我是否在那裡進行了數學計算,以及這是否是我們應該假設的季度運行率。還是有一些我們應該注意的季節性?當然,如何考慮在未來恢復正運行率,我們應該考慮什麼時間段?

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Samik, it's -- $70 million is what's the total of that other business, which includes both principally VMware resell. It also has Virtustream and SecureWorks in it. I think on the broader frame in terms of VMware and what that resell relationship looks like, we've spent the last 5 years growing that business and that relationship with VMware. And we've taken the VMware revenue -- the Dell contribution of VMware revenue up to somewhere roughly sort of in the 30% -- mid-30% range in terms of VMware total contribution.

    是的,Samik,其他業務的總價值為 7000 萬美元,其中主要包括 VMware 轉售業務。它還包含 Virtustream 和 SecureWorks。我認為,從 VMware 的更廣泛框架以及轉售關係的情況來看,我們在過去 5 年裡一直在發展該業務以及與 VMware 的關係。我們已將VMware 營收(戴爾對VMware 營收的貢獻)視為VMware 總營收的約30% 到30% 左右的範圍。

  • As we've talked about in the past, we -- our focus over that last -- that period of time was about velocity of VMware in terms of driving revenue and margin with -- on the VMware solution capability. So with that said, as we now have separated, if you will, through the VMware spin, we do have work to do on pricing and on working our way through the 5 years of those VMware relationships and contracts with our customers, and we are focused on resetting pricing and process over time.

    正如我們過去所談到的,我們在最後一段時間內的重點是VMware 在推動收入和利潤方面的速度——VMware 解決方案能力。話雖如此,既然我們現在已經分開了,如果你願意的話,透過 VMware 的轉型,我們確實需要在定價方面做一些工作,並在與客戶的 5 年 VMware 關係和合約中努力工作,而且我們正在專注於隨著時間的推移重置定價和流程。

  • So I do think that it's going to take us a bit of time to move that needle in terms of the operating loss you're seeing, which is, to be fair, principally, a lot of that is the -- most of that is the VMware resell dynamic. And so I think that's probably at least a 24-month journey as we think about how do we move that forward. I view it as an opportunity. We've got opportunity to improve that and drive better profitability there over time, but it will -- it's going to take some work there.

    因此,我確實認為,就您所看到的營運損失而言,我們需要一些時間來扭轉局面,公平地說,主要是,其中很大一部分是——其中大部分是VMware 經銷動態。因此,我認為這可能至少是一個 24 個月的旅程,因為我們會考慮如何向前邁進。我認為這是一個機會。隨著時間的推移,我們有機會改進這一點並提高盈利能力,但這需要做一些工作。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

    我們將接受 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar 提出的下一個問題。

  • Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • My question is more about like the forecast. I think, Jeff or Tom or Chuck, you mentioned about 3% to 4% revenue growth. And given the fact that demand is exceeding supply, supply constraint and you kind of missed the gross margin numbers, I'm kind of curious, like Dell is historically being known for excellent inventory management. So how much of the demand forecast is actually tied to supply? And could supply concerns impact your demand forecast at this point?

    我的問題更像是預測。我想,傑夫、湯姆或查克,你提到了大約 3% 到 4% 的收入成長。考慮到需求超過供應、供應限制以及您錯過了毛利率數字的事實,我有點好奇,就像戴爾歷來以出色的庫存管理而聞名一樣。那麼,需求預測有多少實際上與供應相關?供應擔憂是否會影響您目前的需求預測?

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Well, look, I -- and Jeff and Chuck should jump in here. I tend to think about it like that. Supply is constrained right now. But our job, working with our -- our selling organization working with our customers just to try and capture demand and bring demand in-house and make sure we're selling the configurations that we believe we have component availability for. So I think the team does a great job with that. And if you think about our model being roughly 50% direct and 50% through the channel, we have the opportunity to shape demand.

    好吧,聽著,我——還有傑夫和查克應該跳到這裡。我傾向於這樣想。目前供應受到限制。但我們的工作是與我們的銷售組織合作,與客戶合作,只是為了嘗試捕捉需求並將需求引入內部,並確保我們銷售的配置是我們認為有可用組件的配置。所以我認為團隊在這方面做得很好。如果你認為我們的模式大約 50% 是直接的,50% 是透過管道進行的,那麼我們就有機會塑造需求。

  • That said, I mean, there are supply constraints throughout the industry that are impacting us and are causing incremental cost, as Jeff highlighted, as given the logistics chain as parts are arriving late and we're having to move product around. So there has been some pressure on gross margin, and you noticed that in Q4.

    也就是說,我的意思是,正如傑夫所強調的那樣,整個行業都存在供應限制,這些限制正在影響我們並導致成本增加,因為零件到達較晚,我們不得不轉移產品,導致物流鏈受到影響。因此,毛利率面臨一些壓力,您在第四季度就注意到了這一點。

  • Look, I think that's something that we're pricing for as we see it. Pricing efficiency as long as you have an elevated backlog, well, is a bit challenging. And ultimately, that pricing will manifest itself through the P&L as we clear backlog. So look, I think -- overall, I think as we think about gross margin for the year, I do think that our perspective is that it does tend to trend up gradually over the course of the year, not -- but there's work to do to get it there.

    看,我認為這就是我們所看到的定價。只要積壓訂單增多,定價效率就有點具有挑戰性。最終,當我們清理積壓訂單時,定價將透過損益表反映出來。所以,我認為,總的來說,我認為,當我們考慮今年的毛利率時,我確實認為我們的觀點是,它確實會在一年中逐漸呈上升趨勢,而不是——但還有工作要做做才能到達那裡。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • I mean, Tom, maybe an addition to that is, look, we spent the quarter looking at the part profile and optimizing shipments, taking care of our customers and the commitments we gave to our customers. We know we incurred incremental cost to do that. There's no question. And we were chasing cost with price. And with a building backlog with the demand that we spoke to, we didn't catch it. But we know we made the right decision in the best long-term interest of the company by serving our customers.

    我的意思是,湯姆,也許除此之外,我們花了這個季度的時間來研究零件概況並優化發貨,照顧我們的客戶以及我們對客戶的承諾。我們知道我們為此付出了增量成本。毫無疑問。我們用價格追逐成本。由於我們所採​​訪的需求正在積壓,我們沒有抓住這一點。但我們知道,透過服務客戶,我們做出了正確的決定,符合公司的最佳長期利益。

  • Our business, our Dell model, we'll work through this. This is what our supply chain team does. Our model is differentiated. We have, we believe, the purest demand signal in the marketplace. We transmit that to our supply chain quicker and better than most in the industry. We're capable of demand shaping with our direct selling model. And our product leverage and product development model allows us to move and qualify more material, which is what we've been doing.

    我們的業務,我們的戴爾模式,我們將解決這個問題。這就是我們的供應鏈團隊所做的。我們的模型是差異化的。我們相信,我們擁有市場上最純粹的需求訊號。我們比業內大多數公司更快、更好地將其傳輸到我們的供應鏈。我們有能力透過我們的直銷模式來塑造需求。我們的產品槓桿和產品開發模型使我們能夠移動和鑑定更多材料,這就是我們一直在做的事情。

  • I think we've navigated the last 2 years quite well as much. As we may be saying backlog wins or headwinds in front of us, our supply chain team loves this stuff. This is what they do, and we're going to serve our customers, and we will find a way to overcome.

    我認為過去兩年我們也過得很好。正如我們可能會說的積壓勝利或面前的逆風,我們的供應鏈團隊喜歡這個東西。這就是他們所做的,我們將為我們的客戶提供服務,我們將找到克服的方法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.

    我們將接受富國銀行 Aaron Rakers 提出的下一個問題。

  • Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

    Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to ask a little bit about backlog. I know in the slide deck you talk about, I think it was $41 billion or $42 billion of remaining performance obligations. And if I look at that number, last quarter, I think you actually disclosed that, that was $36 billion, but today, you're disclosing that was $41 billion. So I guess, I'm curious of what the difference is, if there's a change in the accounting of that.

    我想問一些關於積壓的問題。我知道在你談到的幻燈片中,我認為這是 410 億美元或 420 億美元的剩餘履約義務。如果我看一下這個數字,上個季度,我認為您實際上披露了這個數字,即 360 億美元,但今天,您披露的數字為 410 億美元。所以我想,我很好奇有什麼區別,如果會計上有變化的話。

  • And then when I look at that, that difference of that RPO relative to deferred, that $14 billion, that's up from $9.4 billion a year ago. Is that how we should think about the backlog that you've built? And do you think that you exit this next year at a more normalized backlog level? And what would that maybe look like?

    然後,當我看到這一點時,RPO 相對於遞延成本的差異為 140 億美元,高於一年前的 94 億美元。我們應該這樣看待你們積壓的訂單嗎?您認為明年退出時的積壓水平是否會更正常化?那會是什麼樣子呢?

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Well, look, Aaron, it's Tom. So as you think about RPO, if I look at Q3 backlog, our RPO, I apologize, it was $41 billion, moved to $42 billion, right? So -- and you look at the ins and outs of that, which is we had talked about the fact that backlog build was pretty significant at the end of Q3. What you saw happen in Q4 was we actually took -- we were actually able to reduce backlog in the client space, but we built backlog in the ISG space. And as you might imagine, that has -- those businesses have different margin profiles, which was one of the sort of constraints or impacts on Q4 gross margin and profitability that was recorded in the P&L.

    好吧,看,亞倫,是湯姆。因此,當您考慮 RPO 時,如果我看看第三季的積壓工作,我們的 RPO,我很抱歉,它是 410 億美元,改為 420 億美元,對嗎?所以,你看看這件事的來龍去脈,我們已經討論過這樣一個事實,即積壓工作在第三季末非常重要。您在第四季度看到的情況是,我們實際上能夠減少客戶端領域的積壓,但我們在 ISG 領域增加了積壓。正如您可能想像的那樣,這些業務具有不同的利潤率狀況,這是對損益表中記錄的第四季度毛利率和盈利能力的限製或影響之一。

  • In terms of what's in the RPO, I mean, there's backlog change, plus there's deferred revenue component of that, plus long-term contracts that we have not yet recognized in deferred revenue but where we have performance obligations remaining. So there's a mix of types of services and capabilities in there. And so we can take that. We can further go through that with you, if that would be helpful, so.

    就 RPO 中的內容而言,我的意思是,有積壓的變化,加上其中的遞延收入部分,加上我們尚未在遞延收入中確認但我們仍有履約義務的長期合約。因此,其中存在多種類型的服務和功能。所以我們可以接受這一點。如果有幫助的話,我們可以與您進一步討論。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our final question from Erik Woodridge (sic) [Erik Woodring] of Morgan Stanley.

    我們將回答摩根士丹利的埃里克·伍德里奇(原文如此)[埃里克·伍德林]提出的最後一個問題。

  • Erik William Richard Woodring - Research Associate

    Erik William Richard Woodring - Research Associate

  • Maybe I'll just end the Q&A with a question on cash flow, right? Maybe how should we think about cash flow growth tracking relative to operating your net income next year? I realize you don't guide to it, but just any qualitative or quantitative thoughts that you can share there. And then any specific puts and takes we should be thinking about as we go through the year, either on a seasonal basis or just overall for the year? But that's it for me.

    也許我會用一個關於現金流的問題來結束問答,對嗎?也許我們應該如何考慮相對於明年經營淨利的現金流成長追蹤?我意識到你並沒有引導它,而是只是你可以在那裡分享的任何定性或定量的想法。那麼,在這一年中,我們應該考慮哪些具體的看跌期權和看跌期權,無論是季節性的還是全年的總體情況?但對我來說就是這樣。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Look, we -- and Erik, welcome, by the way. But as we think about cash flow, we don't guide on cash flow, but if you remember, our long-term financial framework where we talked about adjusted free cash flow being at least 100% or better from -- of net income, I think that trend holds true. If you look at our historical performance, you'd be somewhere around 1.1 to 1.3 sort of ratios there over the last number of years. It's probably a reasonable proxy to think about for the coming year.

    是的。聽著,我們——還有埃里克,順便說一句,歡迎。但當我們考慮現金流時,我們不會對現金流進行指導,但如果你還記得,我們​​的長期財務框架中我們談到調整後的自由現金流至少是淨收入的 100% 或更好,我認為這種趨勢是正確的。如果您查看我們的歷史表現,您會發現過去幾年的比率約為 1.1 至 1.3。這可能是來年值得考慮的合理指標。

  • Look, I think we do have seasonal patterns in our cash flow. I think you realized that, right? Q1 typically is our weakest cash flow quarter. Q2 and Q4 have generally been our stronger cash flow quarters based upon seasonal patterns of revenue, and Q3 has been relatively a little bit softer. Those are historical patterns.

    看,我認為我們的現金流確實有季節性模式。我想你意識到了這一點,對嗎?第一季通常是我們現金流最弱的季度。根據季節性收入模式,第二季和第四季通常是我們現金流強勁的季度,而第三季度則相對疲軟一些。這些都是歷史模式。

  • Having said that, I'll tell you that over the last few years, some of those patterns have changed on us given how demand has flown in the -- and given the effects of the pandemic. But I think, overall, we feel really good about our cash flow generation ability. If you look over the last 4 years, our -- on average, we've grown adjusted free cash flow by roughly 9% CAGR over that period of time while growing revenue at a 6% CAGR and growing EPS at a 16% CAGR.

    話雖如此,我要告訴你的是,在過去的幾年裡,考慮到需求的成長方式以及疫情的影響,其中一些模式已經改變了。但我認為,總的來說,我們對自己的現金流產生能力感覺非常好。如果你看看過去 4 年,我們的調整後自由現金流平均複合年增長率約為 9%,同時收入複合年增長率為 6%,每股收益複合年增長率為 16%。

  • So our cash flow generation, I think, is quite strong. I think the team has done a nice job of managing their way with the balance sheet or managing and discipline in the balance sheet. And so I feel good about our cash flow generation.

    因此,我認為我們的現金流量非常強勁。我認為團隊在資產負債表的管理方式或資產負債表的管理和紀律方面做得很好。所以我對我們的現金流產生感覺良好。

  • I don't know, Tyler, if you would add anything to that at this point?

    我不知道,泰勒,你現在是否願意添加任何內容?

  • Tyler W. Johnson - Senior VP & Treasurer

    Tyler W. Johnson - Senior VP & Treasurer

  • I think you gave a pretty good overview. So no, Tom, nothing to add.

    我認為您給出了很好的概述。所以,湯姆,沒什麼好補充的。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • All right. All right. Thanks, everyone. We'll see you in 2 weeks in Morgan Stanley in San Francisco and Raymond James in Orlando and look for information from us on a technology-based discussion from Dell Technology World in early May.

    好的。好的。謝謝大家。兩週後我們將在舊金山的摩根士丹利和奧蘭多的 Raymond James 與您見面,並從我們這裡獲取有關 5 月初在戴爾技術世界舉辦的基於技術的討論的信息。

  • That wraps it. Talk to you soon.

    這就把它包起來了。很快就和你談談。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. We appreciate your participation. You may now disconnect at this time.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。