戴爾 (DELL) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon, and welcome to the Fiscal Year 2022 Fourth Quarter and Year-end Financial Results Conference Call for Dell Technologies Inc. I'd like to inform all participants, this call is being recorded at the request of Dell Technologies. This broadcast is the copyrighted property of Dell Technologies Inc. Any rebroadcast of this information in whole or part without the prior written permission of Dell Technologies Inc. is prohibited. (Operator Instructions)

    下午好,歡迎參加戴爾科技公司 2022 財年第四季度和年終財務業績電話會議。我想通知所有與會者,本次電話會議應戴爾科技公司的要求進行錄音。此廣播是 Dell Technologies Inc. 的版權財產。未經 Dell Technologies Inc. 事先書面許可,禁止對全部或部分信息進行任何重新廣播。 (操作員說明)

  • I'd like to turn the call over to Rob Williams, Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Williams, you may begin.

    我想把電話轉給投資者關係主管 Rob Williams。威廉姆斯先生,你可以開始了。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • Thanks, Erica, and thanks, everyone, for joining us. With me today are Jeff Clarke, Chuck Whitten, Tom Sweet and Tyler Johnson. Our earnings materials are available on our IR website, and guidance will be covered on today's call.

    謝謝,Erica,也謝謝大家加入我們。今天和我在一起的是傑夫·克拉克、查克·惠頓、湯姆·斯威特和泰勒·約翰遜。我們的收益材料可在我們的 IR 網站上獲得,今天的電話會議將涵蓋指導。

  • During this call, unless otherwise indicated, all references to financial measures refer to non-GAAP financial measures, including non-GAAP revenue, gross margin, operating expenses, operating income, net income, earnings per share, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow. A reconciliation of these measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in our web deck and press release. All financial numbers in our earnings materials are now presented on a continuing operations basis, unless otherwise noted. See Appendix C in our presentation for a recast of our P&L numbers. Growth percentages refer to year-over-year change unless otherwise specified.

    在本次電話會議期間,除非另有說明,否則所有提及的財務指標均指非 GAAP 財務指標,包括非 GAAP 收入、毛利率、營業費用、營業收入、淨收入、每股收益、EBITDA、調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的免費現金周轉。這些措施與其最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的對賬可以在我們的網絡平台和新聞稿中找到。除非另有說明,我們收益材料中的所有財務數據現在均以持續經營為基礎。請參閱我們演示文稿中的附錄 C,了解我們的損益表數字的重鑄。除非另有說明,否則增長率指的是同比變化。

  • Statements made during this call that relate to future results and events are forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results and events could differ materially from those projected due to a number of risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our web deck and SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

    本次電話會議中與未來結果和事件相關的陳述是基於當前預期的前瞻性陳述。由於存在許多風險和不確定性,實際結果和事件可能與預測的結果和事件存在重大差異,這些風險和不確定性在我們的網頁版和 SEC 文件中進行了討論。我們不承擔更新我們的前瞻性陳述的義務。

  • During the call today, Jeff will recap FY '22, the demand environment heading into FY '23 and supply chain dynamics in CSG. Chuck will cover ISG and our growth initiatives. And Tom will cover our Q4 financial results, capital allocation and guidance.

    在今天的電話會議中,傑夫將回顧 22 財年、進入 23 財年的需求環境以及 CSG 的供應鏈動態。 Chuck 將負責 ISG 和我們的增長計劃。湯姆將介紹我們的第四季度財務業績、資本分配和指導。

  • Now I'd like to turn it over to Jeff.

    現在我想把它交給傑夫。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • Thanks, Rob. FY '22 was a historic year for Dell Technologies. In fact, the best in our company's history. We reached more than $100 billion in revenue and grew 17%, a huge achievement for a company of our scale and ahead of our long-term value creation growth rates. And our opportunity continues to grow as we look ahead to FY '23. We are more vital than ever to our customers in an expanding market fueled by digital transformation.

    謝謝,羅伯。 22 財年對戴爾科技公司來說是歷史性的一年。事實上,這是我們公司歷史上最好的。我們的收入達到了超過 1000 億美元,增長了 17%,這對於我們這樣規模的公司來說是一個巨大的成就,並且超過了我們的長期價值創造增長率。隨著我們展望 23 財年,我們的機會繼續增長。在數字化轉型推動的不斷擴大的市場中,我們對客戶比以往任何時候都更加重要。

  • IT investments remain a top priority for our customers as technology has become even more essential to their business. It's how you turn data into insight and action into better customer experience and competitive advantage. Customers also want choice and a trusted partner. Our position at the center of our customers' digital agenda and at the center of the technology ecosystem makes Dell the logical choice.

    隨著技術對他們的業務變得更加重要,IT 投資仍然是我們客戶的首要任務。這就是您如何將數據轉化為洞察力,並將行動轉化為更好的客戶體驗和競爭優勢的方式。客戶還需要選擇和值得信賴的合作夥伴。我們處於客戶數字議程中心和技術生態系統中心的地位使戴爾成為合乎邏輯的選擇。

  • You can see in how we're winning with the customers like the Miami Dolphins, AT&T and Vodafone, with the world's largest reinsurer, Munich Re, and one of India's largest manufacturers, Greenpanel, across data storage, hyperconverged infrastructure and in adjacent opportunities like multi-cloud, as-a-service, edge and telecom.

    您可以看到我們如何贏得邁阿密海豚隊、AT&T 和 Vodafone 等客戶,以及世界上最大的再保險公司慕尼黑再保險公司和印度最大的製造商之一 Greenpanel,在數據存儲、超融合基礎設施和相鄰的機會方面,如多雲、即服務、邊緣和電信。

  • We are continuing to gain share in our core businesses and these emerging opportunities where we can bring our advantages to bear. We have differentiated ourselves through consistent performance across different economic environments, unprecedented challenges and unforeseen events, and we have leaned into new opportunities always with an eye toward our customers.

    我們將繼續在我們的核心業務和這些我們可以發揮優勢的新興機會中獲得份額。我們通過在不同經濟環境、前所未有的挑戰和不可預見的事件中的一致表現使自己與眾不同,我們始終以客戶為中心,抓住新機遇。

  • In FY '22, we delivered record revenue of $101.2 billion, record operating income of $7.8 billion, diluted EPS of $6.22 and record cash flow from operations of $7.1 billion, truly a record year.

    在 22 財年,我們實現了創紀錄的 1012 億美元的收入,創紀錄的 78 億美元的營業收入,6.22 美元的攤薄後每股收益和創紀錄的 71 億美元的運營現金流,真是創紀錄的一年。

  • And Q4 was no different. We saw 17% growth in demand of our products and services in the quarter with broad growth across geos, industry vertical and business units. As a result, we delivered record revenue up 16%.

    第四季度也不例外。本季度我們的產品和服務需求增長了 17%,地理、行業垂直和業務部門的廣泛增長。結果,我們實現了創紀錄的收入增長 16%。

  • Operating income was a record, up 1%, but slightly below our November guidance as we optimized our performance based on customer needs, parts availability and backlog dynamics.

    營業收入創歷史新高,增長 1%,但略低於我們 11 月的指導,因為我們根據客戶需求、零件可用性和積壓動態優化了我們的績效。

  • Being trusted partners to our investors and lenders as well as our customers is important to us. And in FY '22, we unlocked shareholder value by the spin of VMware; simplifying our capital structure; deleveraging our balance sheet, returning to investment-grade ratings; approving a share buyback program for up to $5 billion; and today, announcing a quarterly dividend at an initial annual rate of $1.32 a share.

    成為投資者和貸方以及客戶值得信賴的合作夥伴對我們來說非常重要。在 22 財年,我們通過剝離 VMware 釋放了股東價值;簡化我們的資本結構;去槓桿化我們的資產負債表,恢復投資級評級;批准高達 50 億美元的股票回購計劃;今天,宣布以每股 1.32 美元的初始年利率派發季度股息。

  • Now let me shift gears and share a little color on the current supply chain dynamics, and then we will move into BU performance. The global supply chain shortage of semiconductors and global logistics challenges for goods and components continues to impact just about every industry. We are still experiencing shortages of integrated circuits across a wide range of devices, including network controllers and microcontrollers, that go into our products and solutions. The result, we are seeing an impact across client systems, servers and storage.

    現在讓我換個角度,就當前的供應鏈動態分享一點色彩,然後我們將進入 BU 績效。半導體的全球供應鏈短缺以及商品和零部件的全球物流挑戰繼續影響著幾乎每個行業。我們的產品和解決方案中的各種設備(包括網絡控制器和微控制器)仍然存在集成電路短缺的問題。結果,我們看到了對客戶端系統、服務器和存儲的影響。

  • In addition, freight costs have continued to rise due to increased logistics rates, a higher mix of air due to ocean network congestion and increase in part expedites to meet customer needs. We have reduced our PC backlog over the last 2 quarters, and it is nearing the high end of its normal range. However, we expect PC backlog to grow in Q1.

    此外,由於物流費率提高、海運網絡擁堵導致空運混合增加以及部分加快滿足客戶需求,貨運成本持續上升。在過去的兩個季度中,我們減少了 PC 積壓,並且接近正常範圍的高端。然而,我們預計 PC 積壓將在第一季度增長。

  • Our higher-margin ISG backlog increased again in Q4 to a record level due to a combination of very strong demand and the lack of compounded availability. We expect our ISG backlog to remain elevated through at least the first half of the year as part shortages continue.

    由於非常強勁的需求和缺乏複合可用性,我們利潤率較高的 ISG 積壓在第四季度再次增加至創紀錄水平。我們預計,隨著零件短缺的持續,我們的 ISG 積壓訂單至少會在今年上半年保持較高水平。

  • As we head into Q1, we do expect component cost to improve with modest deflation while freight costs remain elevated. We are awaiting information from the recent NAND contamination announcement from Kioxa and Western Digital to evaluate the impact on Dell.

    隨著我們進入第一季度,我們確實預計零部件成本會隨著適度通貨緊縮而改善,而貨運成本仍將保持高位。我們正在等待 Kioxa 和 Western Digital 最近發布的 NAND 污染公告的信息,以評估對戴爾的影響。

  • Our supply chain speed, agility and flexibility has enabled us to meet customer needs in this environment though challenges remain. And our supply chain continues to be a durable competitive advantage as we navigate the unprecedented supply uncertainty.

    儘管挑戰依然存在,但我們的供應鏈速度、敏捷性和靈活性使我們能夠在這種環境下滿足客戶需求。隨著我們應對前所未有的供應不確定性,我們的供應鏈將繼續成為持久的競爭優勢。

  • Turning to CSG. Our PC business logged another record year. We delivered record revenue of $61.5 billion, up 27%; record operating income of $4.4 billion or 7.1% of revenue; record unit shipments of 59.3 million units in calendar '21, up 18%, growing faster than any of the top 3. And calendar year 2021 commercial share growth was up 70 basis points, more than any of the top 3, and has now been up 470 basis points over the last 5 years.

    轉向 CSG。我們的個人電腦業務再創紀錄。我們實現了創紀錄的 615 億美元的收入,增長了 27%;創紀錄的營業收入為 44 億美元,佔收入的 7.1%; 21 日曆年的出貨量達到創紀錄的 5930 萬台,增長 18%,增長速度超過前三名中的任何一個。2021 日曆年的商業份額增長了 70 個基點,超過了前三名中的任何一個,現在已經在過去 5 年中上漲了 470 個基點。

  • Turning to Q4. We delivered our sixth consecutive record CSG revenue quarter with $17.3 billion, up 26%, with healthy demand, up 21%. Operating income was a record of $1.2 billion. We shipped a record 17.2 million PCs in calendar Q4, up 9%, and now have gained share in 32 of the last 36 quarters. Our leading innovation continues to build a strong foundation for future CSG results.

    轉向第四季度。我們連續第六個季度實現創紀錄的 CSG 收入,達到 173 億美元,增長 26%,需求健康,增長 21%。營業收入達到創紀錄的 12 億美元。我們在第四季度的 PC 出貨量達到創紀錄的 1720 萬台,增長 9%,現在在過去 36 個季度中的 32 個季度都獲得了份額。我們領先的創新繼續為未來的 CSG 成果奠定堅實的基礎。

  • We won 47 awards at CES in January where we introduced our new XPS 13, our thinnest-ever gaming notebook, the Alienware 14, and an advanced commercial notebook concept built around sustainability, recyclability and reuse. Hybrid work, learning, shopping, socializing, entertainment and travel is all here to stay. And we expect commercial PC and premium consumer growth in FY '23, albeit at moderating rate relative to a record year.

    我們在 1 月份的 CES 上贏得了 47 個獎項,我們推出了新的 XPS 13、我們有史以來最薄的遊戲筆記本 Alienware 14,以及圍繞可持續性、可回收性和再利用性構建的先進商用筆記本概念。混合工作、學習、購物、社交、娛樂和旅行都將繼續存在。我們預計 23 財年的商用 PC 和高端消費者將增長,儘管相對於創紀錄的年份增速放緩。

  • Clearly, CSG had a fantastic year, and we are well positioned heading into FY '23 as the client systems TAM has reset to a higher level.

    顯然,CSG 度過了美好的一年,隨著客戶系統 TAM 重新設置到更高的水平,我們在進入 23 財年時處於有利地位。

  • I am very proud of our FY '22 results, our team and the company and the culture we've created. And I'm incredibly excited about the road ahead with all of you. We expect another year of growth as we modernize the data center with automation and intelligence, deploy IT at the edge and simplify multi-cloud for our customers.

    我為我們 22 財年的成績、我們的團隊和公司以及我們創造的文化感到非常自豪。我對與你們所有人的未來之路感到無比興奮。隨著我們通過自動化和智能對數據中心進行現代化改造、在邊緣部署 IT 並為我們的客戶簡化多雲,我們預計還會有一年的增長。

  • And with that, I'll turn it over to Chuck for some color on ISG and our growth initiatives. Chuck?

    有了這個,我將把它交給查克,讓他了解 ISG 和我們的增長計劃。查克?

  • Chuck Whitten - Co-COO

    Chuck Whitten - Co-COO

  • Thanks, Jeff. FY '22 was, indeed, one for the record books. We're in a privileged strategic position. We ended the year with great momentum, and we're incredibly optimistic about FY '23 and beyond.

    謝謝,傑夫。 FY '22 確實是一個記錄簿。我們處於特殊的戰略地位。我們以強勁的勢頭結束了這一年,我們對 23 財年及以後的情況非常樂觀。

  • Turning to full year ISG results. Fiscal '22 revenue was $34.4 billion, up 4% for the year and underpinned by 4 consecutive quarters of growth. Widespread digital transformation continues to accelerate growth in infrastructure spend, and we were encouraged by growing demand across our portfolio of ISG solutions.

    轉向全年 ISG 結果。 '22 財年收入為 344 億美元,全年增長 4%,並受到連續 4 個季度增長的支撐。廣泛的數字化轉型繼續加速基礎設施支出的增長,我們對 ISG 解決方案組合不斷增長的需求感到鼓舞。

  • Specifically, FY '22 storage orders grew at the fastest rate since the EMC acquisition, and all geographies grew storage for the year. Midrange storage orders were up double digits in FY '22, and PowerStore remains the fastest-ramping storage product in our company's history. And demand for our leading server products accelerated over the course of the year, culminating with record server demand in Q4.

    具體來說,22 財年的存儲訂單以自 EMC 收購以來最快的速度增長,並且所有地區的存儲都在該年增長。中端存儲訂單在 22 財年增長了兩位數,PowerStore 仍然是我們公司歷史上增長最快的存儲產品。對我們領先服務器產品的需求在一年中加速增長,最終在第四季度達到創紀錄的服務器需求。

  • ISG operating income was $3.7 billion, flat year-over-year as both ISG revenue and margin were gated by supply constraints and corresponding backlog growth. As Jeff highlighted, we will continue to navigate the challenging supply environment with our differentiated business model, our advantaged supply chain, our product design flexibility, and our unique direct go-to-market, which creates a high-quality demand signal and gives us the ability to shape demand to where we have supply.

    ISG 營業收入為 37 億美元,與去年同期持平,因為 ISG 收入和利潤率都受到供應限制和相應的積壓增長的限制。正如 Jeff 所強調的那樣,我們將繼續通過我們的差異化商業模式、我們的優勢供應鏈、我們的產品設計靈活性和我們獨特的直接進入市場來應對充滿挑戰的供應環境,這創造了一個高質量的需求信號,並為我們提供了將需求調整到我們有供應的地方的能力。

  • Turning to Q4. Our final fiscal quarter of FY '22 was a microcosm of ISG's year, with strengthening demand across our storage and server portfolios. ISG demand was up 17% with revenue up 3% to $9.2 billion. Storage demand growth was up for a third consecutive quarter and in the high single digits.

    轉向第四季度。我們 22 財年的最後一個財政季度是 ISG 年度的縮影,我們的存儲和服務器產品組合的需求不斷增強。 ISG 需求增長 17%,收入增長 3% 至 92 億美元。存儲需求連續第三個季度增長,並保持高個位數。

  • Our leading storage portfolio, where we're #1 in high-end, midrange, entry, unstructured, object, all-flash, HCI and data protection, enabled us to capture growth across a variety of storage architectures and customer sizes. For example, we saw double-digit demand growth in the high end, driven by select enterprise customers, 25% demand growth for our unstructured storage solutions and 8% growth for HCI despite a tough year-over-year comparison.

    我們領先的存儲產品組合在高端、中端、入門、非結構化、對象、全閃存、HCI 和數據保護方面排名第一,使我們能夠在各種存儲架構和客戶規模中實現增長。例如,在部分企業客戶的推動下,我們看到高端需求實現了兩位數的增長,我們的非結構化存儲解決方案的需求增長了 25%,HCI 的需求增長了 8%,儘管與去年同期相比很艱難。

  • Within midrange, PowerStore demand continued to ramp in Q4, up 34% sequentially and now approximately 50% of our midrange SAN mix. Encouragingly, 26% of PowerStore buyers are new to Dell storage, and 29% were repeat buyers, important leading indicators of future growth. Servers and networking revenue was up for a fifth consecutive quarter, up 7%.

    在中端,PowerStore 需求在第四季度繼續增長,環比增長 34%,現在約占我們中端 SAN 組合的 50%。令人鼓舞的是,26% 的 PowerStore 買家是戴爾存儲的新手,29% 是重複買家,這是未來增長的重要領先指標。服務器和網絡收入連續第五個季度增長,增長 7%。

  • Storage revenue was roughly flat year-over-year due to the aforementioned backlog build and storage software and services content that gets deferred and amortized over time. ISG operating income was $1.1 billion, down 7% due primarily to backlog growth, component inflation and logistics costs. We continue to take pricing actions to mitigate cost increases, though component shortages and turbulent logistics markets remain risks that we are actively managing.

    由於上述積壓的構建以及存儲軟件和服務內容隨著時間的推移而被推遲和攤銷,因此存儲收入與去年同期基本持平。 ISG 營業收入為 11 億美元,下降 7%,主要是由於積壓增長、零部件通脹和物流成本。儘管零部件短缺和動蕩的物流市場仍然是我們正在積極管理的風險,但我們將繼續採取定價行動以減輕成本增加。

  • In summary, FY '22 was a solid year for ISG as infrastructure markets rebounded, the business returned to growth, our leading indicators of server and storage demand were ahead of revenue, and our integrated business model continues to deliver despite challenging supply dynamics. ISG is poised for a strong FY '23, given the momentum in the business. Tom will share thoughts on forward guidance in a moment.

    總而言之,隨著基礎設施市場反彈、業務恢復增長、我們的服務器和存儲需求領先指標領先於收入,以及儘管供應動態充滿挑戰,我們的綜合業務模式繼續交付,22 財年對 ISG 來說是穩健的一年。鑑於業務的發展勢頭,ISG 已準備好迎接 23 財年的強勁表現。湯姆稍後將分享有關前瞻性指導的想法。

  • Before handing over to Tom, let me touch briefly on our priority growth initiatives. At our September analyst meeting, we highlighted multiple growth opportunities both inside and outside our core business, including over $650 billion in TAM adjacent to our core, where our asset positions and durable competitive advantages give us a right to win. These are distinct markets like edge and telco but also growth opportunities like our APEX branded as-a-service solutions that provide a modern consumption experience to our customers. Customers can buy our solutions, subscribe to our solutions and select from different types of services, including fully managed service offerings, depending on their needs.

    在交給湯姆之前,讓我簡要介紹一下我們的優先增長計劃。在我們 9 月的分析師會議上,我們強調了核心業務內外的多個增長機會,包括與我們核心業務相鄰的超過 6500 億美元的 TAM,我們的資產地位和持久的競爭優勢使我們有權獲勝。這些是邊緣和電信等不同的市場,但也有增長機會,例如我們的 APEX 品牌即服務解決方案,為我們的客戶提供現代消費體驗。客戶可以購買我們的解決方案,訂閱我們的解決方案,並根據他們的需要從不同類型的服務中進行選擇,包括完全託管的服務產品。

  • FY '22 was an important year as we launch solutions in these spaces, engage customers and made investments that positioned us for future growth. We were pleased with our strategic technical and commercial momentum in these businesses. In particular, we saw a rapid acceleration of our APEX Flex on Demand subscription offering as the year progressed, an important market indicator that our APEX strategy is resonating with customers. We also delivered a steady stream of innovations and customer wins in edge and telco in FY '22, giving us conviction in our long-term strategy.

    22 財年是重要的一年,因為我們在這些領域推出了解決方案,吸引了客戶並進行了投資,為我們的未來增長做好了準備。我們對這些業務的戰略技術和商業發展勢頭感到滿意。特別是,隨著時間的推移,我們看到我們的 APEX Flex on Demand 訂閱服務迅速加速,這是我們的 APEX 戰略正在引起客戶共鳴的重要市場指標。在 22 財年,我們還在邊緣和電信領域提供了源源不斷的創新和客戶勝利,讓我們對我們的長期戰略充滿信心。

  • Noteworthy in Q4 was the expansion of our APEX Cloud Services portfolio with 2 new offers: APEX Multi-cloud Data Services, which delivers storage and data protection as-a-service with simultaneous access to all major public clouds through a single console. The solution allows customers to access the cloud services they want while maintaining control of their data on-premise, avoiding lock-in and egress fees and enabling customers to meet regulatory and compliance requirements; and APEX Backup Services, which provides scalable, secure data protection with centralized monitoring and management for SaaS applications, endpoints and hybrid workloads. The solution offers all-in-one protection with backup, disaster recovery and long-term data retention in a 100% SaaS-based offering with no infrastructure to manage.

    第四季度值得注意的是我們的 APEX 雲服務產品組合擴展了 2 個新產品:APEX 多雲數據服務,它提供存儲和數據保護即服務,並通過單個控制台同時訪問所有主要公共雲。該解決方案允許客戶訪問他們想要的雲服務,同時保持對內部數據的控制,避免鎖定和出口費用,並使客戶能夠滿足監管和合規要求;和 APEX 備份服務,它通過集中監控和管理 SaaS 應用程序、端點和混合工作負載提供可擴展的安全數據保護。該解決方案在 100% 基於 SaaS 的產品中提供多合一保護,包括備份、災難恢復和長期數據保留,無需管理基礎設施。

  • FY '23 will be about continuing to push the innovation agenda in APEX, telco, edge and multi-cloud. As these growth initiatives become more actually material, we will provide more detail.

    23 財年將繼續推動 APEX、電信、邊緣和多雲的創新議程。隨著這些增長計劃變得更加實際,我們將提供更多細節。

  • In closing, we enter FY '23 in a solid demand environment across our businesses and with a lot of confidence.

    最後,我們在整個業務的穩定需求環境中進入 23 財年,並且充滿信心。

  • And with that, I will turn it over to Tom.

    有了這個,我會把它交給湯姆。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Chuck. In Q4, we delivered record revenue of $28 billion, up 16%, driven by another record quarter for CSG and continued growth in ISG, with demand for servers and storage well ahead of revenue.

    謝謝,查克。在第四季度,我們實現了創紀錄的 280 億美元的收入,增長了 16%,這得益於 CSG 又一個創紀錄的季度以及 ISG 的持續增長,對服務器和存儲的需求遠遠超過了收入。

  • Gross margin was $5.8 billion, flat year-over-year at 20.8% of revenue. Gross margin as a percentage of revenue was 320 basis points lower primarily due to higher-than-anticipated component and logistics costs and higher CSG mix. We continue to take pricing actions to manage the impact of commodity and logistics cost variability. Part shortages and supply chain risks remain across the economy, and we expect ISG backlog to remain elevated through at least the first half of fiscal '23.

    毛利率為 58 億美元,同比持平,佔收入的 20.8%。毛利率佔收入的百分比下降 320 個基點,主要是由於組件和物流成本高於預期以及 CSG 組合增加。我們繼續採取定價措施來管理商品和物流成本變化的影響。零件短缺和供應鏈風險在整個經濟中仍然存在,我們預計 ISG 積壓將至少在 23 財年上半年保持較高水平。

  • Operating expense was $3.6 billion, roughly flat year-over-year at 13% of revenue with the full year fiscal year '22 OpEx rate at 14.7%. We continue to invest for long-term growth but did benefit from lower compensation and benefits in the period.

    運營費用為 36 億美元,與去年同期大致持平,佔收入的 13%,22 財年全年運營支出率為 14.7%。我們繼續為長期增長進行投資,但確實受益於該期間較低的薪酬和福利。

  • Looking ahead to fiscal year '23, we expect OpEx as a percentage of revenue to be slightly higher than fiscal year '22 as we invest in the business, employees return to work, and we engage in more business-related travel.

    展望 23 財年,我們預計運營支出佔收入的百分比將略高於 22 財年,因為我們投資於業務,員工重返工作崗位,並且我們從事更多與商務相關的旅行。

  • Operating income was a record $2.2 billion, up 1% at 7.8% of revenue. This was slightly lower than our November guidance given the impact of supply chain disruptions.

    營業收入達到創紀錄的 22 億美元,增長 1%,佔收入的 7.8%。鑑於供應鏈中斷的影響,這略低於我們 11 月份的指引。

  • Net income was $1.4 billion, up 2%, with growth in operating income and a decline in interest expense due to the reduced debt balances, offset by an increase in our effective tax rate.

    淨收入為 14 億美元,增長 2%,營業收入增長,由於債務餘額減少導致利息支出下降,但被我們有效稅率的提高所抵消。

  • Our tax rate was 25.1%, higher than we expected at the time of our Q3 earnings call. The higher rate was driven by corporate transactions, including the refinancing and tender we executed in December. The combined effect reduced income in higher tax jurisdictions, resulting in lower utilization of available tax credits. The total tax impact was a reduction of approximately $0.19 to diluted non-GAAP EPS.

    我們的稅率為 25.1%,高於我們在第三季度財報電話會議時的預期。較高的利率是由公司交易推動的,包括我們在 12 月執行的再融資和招標。綜合影響降低了較高稅收管轄區的收入,導致可用稅收抵免的利用率降低。總稅收影響是稀釋後的非公認會計原則每股收益減少了約 0.19 美元。

  • Fully diluted EPS was $1.72, down 2%, with diluted share count increasing to 810 million shares as a result of the VMware spin.

    完全攤薄後每股收益為 1.72 美元,下降 2%,由於 VMware 分拆,攤薄後的股票數量增加到 8.1 億股。

  • Adjusted EBITDA was $2.7 billion, up 3% at 9.6% of revenue and was $9.7 billion, up 12%, for the full year.

    調整後的 EBITDA 為 27 億美元,增長 3%,佔收入的 9.6%,全年為 97 億美元,增長 12%。

  • Our recurring revenue is approximately $5 billion a quarter, up 12%. Our remaining performance obligations, or RPO, is approximately $42 billion, up 20%, and includes deferred revenue plus committed contract value not included in deferred revenue.

    我們每季度的經常性收入約為 50 億美元,增長 12%。我們剩餘的履約義務或 RPO 約為 420 億美元,增長 20%,包括遞延收入加上未包含在遞延收入中的承諾合同價值。

  • Dell Financial Services originations in Q4 were $2.7 billion, up 12%. DFS ended the quarter with $13.5 billion in total managed assets.

    第四季度戴爾金融服務的發起額為 27 億美元,增長 12%。 DFS 在本季度末管理資產總額為 135 億美元。

  • Turning to our cash flow and balance sheet. We generated strong cash flow as our cash flow from operations was $3.1 billion in Q4, mainly driven by top line growth and $2.7 billion of adjusted EBITDA. Q4 adjusted free cash flow was $3 billion.

    轉向我們的現金流和資產負債表。我們產生了強勁的現金流,因為我們第四季度的運營現金流為 31 億美元,主要受收入增長和 27 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 推動。第四季度調整後的自由現金流為 30 億美元。

  • We are happy with the disciplined management of our working capital, although we continue to see higher inventory levels given the supply chain dynamics and component availability. We expect inventory balances to come down as the supply chain situation improves over the coming year.

    我們對營運資金的嚴格管理感到滿意,儘管鑑於供應鏈動態和組件可用性,我們繼續看到更高的庫存水平。隨著供應鏈狀況在來年改善,我們預計庫存餘額將下降。

  • We repaid $10.6 billion of debt in Q4, funded primarily with $9.3 billion in VMware dividend proceeds, and retired $1.7 billion in existing long-dated, high-coupon notes, funded through $2.25 billion in new bonds and balance sheet cash. The refinancing activity will save approximately $70 million in annual interest expense.

    我們在第四季度償還了 106 億美元的債務,主要由 93 億美元的 VMware 股息收益提供資金,並通過 22.5 億美元的新債券和資產負債表現金償還了 17 億美元的現有長期高息票據。再融資活動將每年節省約 7000 萬美元的利息費用。

  • We exited Q4 with a core debt balance of $16.1 billion and a cash and investments balance of $11.3 billion.

    我們以 161 億美元的核心債務餘額和 113 億美元的現金和投資餘額退出了第四季度。

  • Turning to capital allocation. As we have previously mentioned, we intend to return, on average, 40% to 60% of our adjusted free cash flow to shareholders over time. We repurchased 11.6 million shares of Class C common stock in Q4, totaling $659 million. And our intent is to continue buying shares going forward programmatically as we manage dilution and opportunistically return capital to shareholders, consistent with our capital allocation framework.

    轉向資本配置。正如我們之前提到的,隨著時間的推移,我們打算平均將調整後自由現金流的 40% 至 60% 返還給股東。我們在第四季度回購了 1160 萬股 C 類普通股,總額為 6.59 億美元。我們的意圖是繼續以編程方式購買股票,因為我們管理稀釋併機會性地將資本返還給股東,這與我們的資本分配框架一致。

  • Additionally, since the end of Q4 and through the close of business last Friday, we have repurchased an additional 4.2 million shares for $248 million. Program to date, we have repurchased approximately 5.4% of the outstanding Class C common stock. To complement our share repurchase program, our Board has approved a Q1 dividend of $0.33 per share.

    此外,自第四季度末到上週五收市以來,我們以 2.48 億美元回購了額外的 420 萬股股票。迄今為止,我們已經回購了大約 5.4% 的流通 C 類普通股。為了補充我們的股票回購計劃,我們的董事會已批准每股 0.33 美元的第一季度股息。

  • We expect the cash impact of our quarterly dividend payments to be approximately $1 billion or roughly $1.32 per share for the full year, and we expect to have the opportunity over time to grow our dividend at least consistent with our long-term EPS growth in each case, subject to future Board approvals.

    我們預計全年季度股息支付的現金影響約為 10 億美元或每股約 1.32 美元,我們預計隨著時間的推移,我們的股息增長至少與我們在每個季度的長期每股收益增長相一致情況下,須經未來董事會批准。

  • For more details on the dividend announcement, please review today's press release and Form 8-K. Alongside capital return to shareholders, we will continue to invest in the business, delever toward our 1.5x gross core leverage goal and pursue targeted M&A.

    有關股息公告的更多詳細信息,請查看今天的新聞稿和 8-K 表格。除了向股東提供資本回報外,我們將繼續投資該業務,朝著我們 1.5 倍的總核心槓桿目標邁進,並追求有針對性的併購。

  • Before I provide thoughts on Q1 and full year guidance, I would like to invite Jeff back for a few comments on Ukraine.

    在我提供關於第一季度和全年指導的想法之前,我想邀請 Jeff 回來就烏克蘭發表一些評論。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • Thanks, Tom.

    謝謝,湯姆。

  • Regarding Ukraine. First and foremost, our thoughts are with those families who have lost loved ones and all who are impacted. Our top priority at this time is supporting our Ukrainian team members as they attempt to relocate to a safe and secure environment. We are closely monitoring things and are working with employees to address their personal and family situations.

    關於烏克蘭。首先,我們的心與那些失去親人的家庭和所有受影響的人同在。我們目前的首要任務是支持我們的烏克蘭團隊成員,因為他們試圖遷移到一個安全可靠的環境。我們正在密切關注事態發展,並與員工合作解決他們的個人和家庭情況。

  • As for business operations in the region, the situation is rapidly evolving, and we will share more details as they become available.

    至於該地區的業務運營,情況正在迅速發展,我們將在有消息時分享更多細節。

  • Back to you, Tom.

    回到你身邊,湯姆。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Jeff.

    謝謝,傑夫。

  • Turning to Q1 and fiscal year '23. We're optimistic about the overall macroeconomic environment with global IT spending projected in the mid-single digits. Digital transformation is a top priority for our customers, and it's fueling our growth as our customers look to Dell as their partner in their multi-cloud journey.

    轉向第一季度和 '23 財年。我們對整體宏觀經濟環境持樂觀態度,全球 IT 支出預計為中個位數。數字化轉型是我們客戶的重中之重,它正在推動我們的增長,因為我們的客戶將戴爾視為他們在多雲之旅中的合作夥伴。

  • Against that backdrop, we expect Q1 revenue between $24.5 billion and $25.7 billion, up 11% at the midpoint, with CSG and ISG growing.

    在此背景下,我們預計第一季度收入在 245 億美元至 257 億美元之間,中點增長 11%,其中 CSG 和 ISG 增長。

  • For non-GAAP tax rate, you should assume 20% plus or minus 100 basis points, driven by higher overall U.S. tax on foreign earnings and lower interest expense going forward. This guidance assumes U.S. rates are not affected by any tax reform. And based on my earlier share repurchase commentary, we expect Q1 diluted share count between 785 million to 790 million shares.

    對於非 GAAP 稅率,您應該假設 20% 正負 100 個基點,這是由於美國對外國收入的整體稅收較高和未來利息費用較低。本指南假設美國稅率不受任何稅制改革的影響。根據我之前的股票回購評論,我們預計第一季度稀釋後的股票數量在 7.85 億至 7.9 億股之間。

  • Netting this out, we expect non-GAAP diluted EPS in the range of $1.25 to $1.50, up 2% at the midpoint. I recognize that our EPS range is slightly wider than normal, but given a more dynamic component availability in logistics environment and elevated backlog, particularly in ISG, I believe it is appropriate.

    扣除這一點,我們預計非 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益在 1.25 美元至 1.50 美元之間,中點增長 2%。我承認我們的 EPS 範圍比正常情況略寬,但鑑於物流環境中組件可用性更加動態和積壓增加,特別是在 ISG 中,我認為這是合適的。

  • For fiscal year '23, we're coming off a very strong year with record performance in fiscal year '22. As a starting point, we suggest you align fiscal year '23 financial expectations with our long-term value creation framework, and we will provide an updated perspective on the year as we move forward.

    對於 '23 財年,我們在 '22 財年以創紀錄的業績結束了非常強勁的一年。作為起點,我們建議您將 23 財年的財務預期與我們的長期價值創造框架保持一致,我們將在前進的過程中提供對這一年的最新看法。

  • As a reminder, that's revenue growth in the 3% to 4% range and EPS growth at 6% or better over the long term. We also expect to deliver solid free cash flow and return significant capital back to shareholders with our announced dividend and share buybacks.

    提醒一下,從長遠來看,這是 3% 至 4% 的收入增長和 6% 或更高的每股收益增長。我們還期望通過我們宣布的股息和股票回購提供穩定的自由現金流並將大量資本返還給股東。

  • As we think about Ukraine, I will reiterate that, first and foremost, our thoughts are with everyone who has been impacted and supporting our team members in the region as we closely monitor the developing news there. While our direct revenue exposure to Ukraine and Russia is minimal on a percentage basis, it is too early to determine any broader potential impact to our Q1 guidance and our initial thoughts on fiscal year '23.

    當我們想到烏克蘭時,我將重申,首先,我們的想法與所有受到影響的人同在,並在我們密切關注那裡正在發展的新聞時支持我們在該地區的團隊成員。雖然我們對烏克蘭和俄羅斯的直接收入敞口在百分比基礎上是最小的,但現在確定對我們的第一季度指導和我們對 23 財年的初步想法的任何更廣泛的潛在影響還為時過早。

  • In closing, we delivered an extraordinary year with record revenue, operating income, EPS and cash flow. We delivered significant shareholder value through the spinoff of VMware, the sale of Boomi and disciplined and consistent debt paydown, resulting in an investment-grade rating. We also introduced a comprehensive capital allocation framework and began shareholder capital return actions with share buybacks and the announcement of a dividend.

    最後,我們以創紀錄的收入、營業收入、每股收益和現金流量實現了非凡的一年。我們通過剝離 VMware、出售 Boomi 以及有紀律和一致的債務償還為股東創造了可觀的價值,從而獲得了投資級評級。我們還引入了全面的資本分配框架,並通過股票回購和宣布股息開始了股東資本回報行動。

  • We remain focused on executing our strategy to consolidate and modernize our core and build new growth engines that enable our customers' multi-cloud future while delivering revenue and EPS growth with strong free cash flow to our shareholders over time.

    我們將繼續專注於執行我們的戰略,以鞏固和現代化我們的核心並建立新的增長引擎,以支持我們客戶的多雲未來,同時隨著時間的推移為我們的股東提供強勁的自由現金流帶來收入和每股收益增長。

  • With that, I'll turn it back to Rob to begin Q&A.

    有了這個,我將把它轉回給 Rob 開始問答。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • Thanks, Tom. Let's go to Q&A. (Operator Instructions) Erica, can you introduce the first question?

    謝謝,湯姆。讓我們去問答吧。 (操作員說明)Erica,你能介紹第一個問題嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our first question from Shannon Cross with Cross Research.

    我們將通過 Cross Research 向 Shannon Cross 提出我們的第一個問題。

  • Shannon Siemsen Cross - Co-Founder, Principal & Analyst

    Shannon Siemsen Cross - Co-Founder, Principal & Analyst

  • I was wondering if you can talk about how -- in general, how you're managing price increases. And given the pressures you're seeing on components and obviously, the questions geopolitically and everything that's going on right now, how should we think about timing of the benefit of these price increases to run through both CSG and ISG? And also, if you can talk about whether or not you think the moves will be sufficient enough to offset inflation and the component costs or if there -- at some point, you -- or maybe nobody knows, but at some point, you start to see some pushback because of elasticity of demand.

    我想知道你是否可以談談 - 一般來說,你是如何管理價格上漲的。鑑於您在組件上看到的壓力,顯然地緣政治問題以及目前正在發生的一切,我們應該如何考慮這些價格上漲的好處的時機,以貫穿 CSG 和 ISG?而且,如果你能談談你是否認為這些舉措足以抵消通脹和組件成本,或者是否存在——在某個時候,你——或者也許沒人知道,但在某個時候,你開始由於需求彈性而出現一些阻力。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Shannon, let me chat a little bit about that, then I'll ask Jeff and potentially Chuck to weigh in as well. So Look, in general, as you think about management of price increases, what we have been doing as we see costs that are -- that have been moving upward on us, effectively, given the volatility we're seeing particularly in the semiconductor space and the dynamics of when parts are arriving at our various factories, we have been adjusting prices as appropriate. I think part of the dynamic that we're seeing right now, though, is that given the fact that we do have elevated backlog, any price increases you're seeing are generally somewhat muted as you think through the impact to the P&L, given that it's got a flow-through backlog.

    香農,讓我談談這個,然後我會請傑夫和可能的查克也參與進來。所以,總的來說,當你考慮價格上漲的管理時,我們一直在做什麼,因為我們看到成本一直在上升,實際上,考慮到我們在半導體領域看到的波動性以及零件何時到達我們各個工廠的動態,我們一直在適當調整價格。不過,我認為我們現在看到的部分動態是,鑑於我們確實有大量積壓,當您考慮到對損益表的影響時,您看到的任何價格上漲通常都會有所減弱,因為它有一個流通積壓。

  • And so to the extent you have elevated backlog, which we clearly do in ISG and we're at the upper end of what we would characterize as the new normal in CSG, that's going to be a bit of a headwind in terms of the pricing activities ultimately manifesting themselves in the P&L.

    因此,就您的積壓量而言,我們在 ISG 中顯然是這樣做的,而且我們處於我們將其描述為 CSG 新常態的高端,就定價而言,這將是一個逆風活動最終體現在損益表中。

  • But our perspective is, look, to adjust prices as appropriate, we're always mindful of the market dynamic, to your point around elasticity, but we're also in an inflationary environment, which we're in, and we see that across multiple industries, as you would all know, it's appropriate that we readjust pricing and make sure that we're getting appropriate value for our solutions.

    但我們的觀點是,看,適當調整價格,我們始終關注市場動態,就彈性而言,但我們也處於通貨膨脹環境中,我們所處的環境是,我們看到眾所周知,多個行業,我們重新調整定價並確保我們的解決方案獲得適當的價值是適當的。

  • Jeff or Chuck, I don't know if you would add anything to that.

    Jeff 或 Chuck,我不知道您是否會對此添加任何內容。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • Maybe a couple of comments, Shannon. One is, as we look at total input costs, we just went through an inflationary period in Q4. We think component costs go down slightly in Q1, offset by a flat to probably slightly increasing logistics costs to move material around to the factories when they're delivered. So one of our biggest challenges that we've been working through is chasing those costs that are associated with the volatility, the uncertainty of when parts show up out of factories that we can move them to our subassembly facilities to turn them ultimately into finished products.

    也許有幾條評論,香農。一是,當我們查看總投入成本時,我們剛剛在第四季度經歷了通貨膨脹期。我們認為第一季度零部件成本略有下降,但在交付時將材料運送到工廠的物流成本持平或略有增加,這抵消了這一影響。因此,我們一直在努力解決的最大挑戰之一是追逐與波動相關的成本,即零件何時出現在工廠之外的不確定性,我們可以將它們轉移到我們的子裝配設施,最終將它們變成成品.

  • And it's that volatility, if you will, or uncertainty that we're -- certainly is catching us a little bit, maybe a surprise. We didn't see as much expedites of moving material around, which led to some of the compression in margin that you -- we've talked about. And so it's that precise thing that we're trying to get even more accurate about.

    正是這種波動性,如果你願意的話,或者我們的不確定性 - 肯定會抓住我們一點,也許是一個驚喜。我們沒有看到移動材料的速度加快,這導致了一些利潤壓縮——我們已經討論過了。因此,我們正試圖更加準確地了解這一點。

  • When you look at the pricing environment that we're operating in today, as costs go up, it's being transferred into price. Whether that's commercial PCs, whether that's the premium consumer side of our business, we're seeing the same thing broadly across the server base, and the same is true in our storage base. So that cost is being transferred into price as efficiently as we can where we understand it and we could be planful and mindful. It's that volatility and uncertainty that is, I don't know if it's the right word to describe it, that it can't plan for it and we're responding as fast as we can. And the higher levels of backlog, it's less efficient at capturing it. I hope that helped.

    當您查看我們今天運營的定價環境時,隨著成本的上升,它正在轉化為價格。無論是商用 PC,還是我們業務的高端消費端,我們在服務器基礎上都看到了同樣的情況,在我們的存儲基礎上也是如此。因此,在我們理解成本的情況下,我們可以盡可能有效地將成本轉化為價格,並且我們可以有計劃和謹慎。正是這種波動性和不確定性,我不知道用這個詞來形容它是否合適,它無法為此做好計劃,我們正在盡可能快地做出反應。而且積壓的級別越高,捕獲它的效率就越低。我希望這有幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from David Vogt with UBS.

    我們將向瑞銀的 David Vogt 提出我們的下一個問題。

  • David Vogt - Analyst

    David Vogt - Analyst

  • So just maybe when we think about the context of the full year from a demand perspective and all of the different moving pieces from a supply chain, I think Tom and Jeff and Chuck all mentioned, the second half of the year is at the earliest we're going to see some improvement. Is that what's sort of underpinning sort of the long-term framework sort of the reiteration that we're thinking about? And if so, is there a way to quantify potentially what that revenue impact is from supply chain right now? I know it's sort of a difficult question to answer, but just trying to get a sense for how revenue is being held back by the supply chain at this point.

    因此,也許當我們從需求的角度考慮全年的背景以及供應鏈中所有不同的活動部分時,我想 Tom、Jeff 和 Chuck 都提到過,今年下半年最早是我們'會看到一些改進。這就是我們正在考慮的長期框架那種重申的基礎嗎?如果是這樣,有沒有辦法量化目前供應鏈對收入的潛在影響?我知道這是一個很難回答的問題,但只是想了解此時供應鍊是如何阻礙收入的。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • David, I think you have to think about it like that. And as we think about the year right now, and let me reiterate that we're optimistic about the year from a demand environment perspective with what we know today, that we do expect -- the guidance I gave you around Q1 revenue and a midpoint of 11% year-over-year growth, we will continue to work our way through the supply chain dynamics. But particularly within -- first with ISG, we do expect those headwinds to be with us at least through the first half of the year, right?

    大衛,我認為你必須這樣想。當我們現在考慮這一年時,讓我重申一下,從需求環境的角度來看,我們對這一年持樂觀態度,我們今天所知道的,我們確實期望 - 我給你的關於第一季度收入和中點的指導同比增長 11%,我們將繼續努力通過供應鏈動態。但特別是在內部——首先是 ISG,我們確實預計這些不利因素至少會在今年上半年出現,對吧?

  • And so I think you've got -- as we laid out the long-term guidance for you, I want you to think about how your sequentials interact as we go through the year, but I think a good starting point is the long-term framework. And clearly, as the situation becomes clearer in terms of the logistics dynamics that -- and the supply chain that we're seeing, we'll update you.

    所以我認為你已經 - 當我們為你制定長期指導時,我希望你考慮在我們度過這一年時你的序列如何相互作用,但我認為一個好的起點是長期 -術語框架。顯然,隨著物流動態以及我們所看到的供應鏈方面的情況變得更加清晰,我們將向您更新。

  • The other point I'd like to make, though, is around -- although we've talked about ISG backlog being at an elevated level, we do expect, quite frankly, a little bit of headwind in the CSG space in Q1 with -- particularly with desktops, given some of the component shortages we're seeing. So those are the navigation that we're going to have to do as we work our way through the first quarter and, quite frankly, I think the first half, but optimistic about the year. And as you work your way through your modeling, I think just keep in mind that the concept of perhaps normal sequentials aren't quite as -- it's been a few years of variability as we've worked our way through the year. But again, I think the year, as we see it today, we're optimistic about the full year framework that we've laid out.

    不過,我想說的另一點是——儘管我們已經談到 ISG 積壓處於較高水平,但坦率地說,我們確實預計第一季度的 CSG 領域會出現一點阻力—— - 考慮到我們看到的一些組件短缺,尤其是台式機。所以這些是我們在第一季度工作時必須做的導航,坦率地說,我認為是上半年,但對今年持樂觀態度。當您按照自己的方式進行建模時,我想請記住,也許正常序列的概念並不像 - 我們在這一年中一直在努力,這已經是幾年的可變性。但同樣,我認為這一年,正如我們今天所看到的,我們對我們制定的全年框架持樂觀態度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

    我們將向美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan 提出我們的下一個問題。

  • Wamsi Mohan - MD in Americas Equity Research

    Wamsi Mohan - MD in Americas Equity Research

  • Jeff, you noted growth in commercial PC and premium consumer to continue into fiscal '23. I was wondering how you're thinking about the growth. How concerned are you about inventory levels? I know you noted that CSG backlog is expected to improve -- increase here in the near term. And any help you can give us about how you're thinking about ASP trends as well, given the moving pieces on the commodity environment?

    Jeff,您注意到商用 PC 和高端消費者的增長將持續到 23 財年。我想知道你是如何看待增長的。您對庫存水平的關注程度如何?我知道您指出,CSG 積壓工作預計會有所改善——短期內會增加。考慮到商品環境的變化,您可以給我們關於您如何看待 ASP 趨勢的任何幫助嗎?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • Sure, Wamsi. I think that was 3 different questions. I'll try to get to all of them. So first off, if we step back and we look at the environment, we've just gone through 3 consecutive years of growth getting the PC industry back to roughly 350 million units, and the TAM we believe has been reset. And if you look at where a large percentage of that growth has come from, it's come from commercial PCs and consumer PCs, generally an area that we're very strong in. Commercial PCs represent roughly 75% of our revenues.

    當然,萬西。我認為這是 3 個不同的問題。我會盡量接觸到所有這些。所以首先,如果我們退後一步,看看環境,我們剛剛經歷了連續 3 年的增長,使 PC 行業恢復到大約 3.5 億台,我們認為 TAM 已經被重置。如果你看看大部分增長來自哪裡,它來自商用個人電腦和消費個人電腦,這通常是我們非常強大的領域。商用個人電腦約占我們收入的 75%。

  • Our view is those 2 premium sectors continue to grow. In calendar '22 or fiscal '23, we have commercial PCs growing mid-single digits, and we have premium consumer PCs growing low single digits. We obviously expect to take share on top of those numbers. Where the pressure will be is in low end and mid-consumer price bands and in Chrome. You've heard us probably talk about this. Not all units are created equal. Some units are more valuable than others. We believe we play in the most valuable space, commercial PCs and premium consumer PCs. So we're optimistic that we grow those valuable sectors, so the market grows in those valuable sectors, and we can continue to be a consolidator there.

    我們的觀點是這兩個高端行業繼續增長。在 22 年日曆或 23 財年,我們的商用 PC 增長中個位數,而高端消費 PC 增長低個位數。我們顯然希望在這些數字之上獲得份額。壓力將來自低端和中端消費價格帶以及 Chrome。你可能聽說過我們談論這個。並非所有單位都是平等的。有些單位比其他單位更有價值。我們相信我們在最有價值的空間、商用 PC 和高端消費 PC 中發揮作用。因此,我們對發展這些有價值的領域持樂觀態度,因此這些有價值的領域的市場會增長,我們可以繼續成為那裡的整合者。

  • If we look at the ASP trends, the ASP trends have continued to move up as the commodity base has been inflationary. And then clearly, what I mentioned earlier, the increased cost in moving material, moving parts associated with logistics costs, have certainly driven a pricing action as well.

    如果我們看看 ASP 趨勢,ASP 趨勢繼續上升,因為商品基礎一直在通脹。然後很明顯,我之前提到的,與物流成本相關的移動材料、移動部件的成本增加,當然也推動了定價行動。

  • The pricing environment that we see today that I mentioned a little bit earlier is there is pressure as inventory levels come back to norm on midrange to low-end consumer price bands and into Chrome. We still see challenges in getting all of the material for the premium price points in consumer and in commercial. So that's why Tom just made a reference, for example, in desktops and displays, we actually see backlog building demand ahead of supply, if you will, in Q1 as we've spent the last 2 quarters, reducing the backlog of our PC business.

    我剛才提到的今天我們看到的定價環境是存在壓力,因為庫存水平在中低端消費者價格範圍內恢復到正常水平並進入 Chrome。我們仍然看到在消費者和商業領域以高價位獲取所有材料的挑戰。所以這就是為什麼 Tom 只是做了一個參考,例如,在台式機和顯示器方面,我們實際上看到積壓的需求先於供應,如果你願意的話,在第一季度,我們已經度過了過去兩個季度,減少了我們 PC 業務的積壓.

  • And in terms of absolute inventory, we've continued to take material we know that we need because if you don't take it, it's going somewhere else. That environment largely exists in the most valuable commodities.

    就絕對庫存而言,我們繼續採用我們知道我們需要的材料,因為如果您不接受它,它就會流向其他地方。這種環境主要存在於最有價值的商品中。

  • I think I got all those answered.

    我想我得到了所有這些答案。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Tom Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

    您的下一個問題來自 Tom Sacconaghi 和 Bernstein 的觀點。

  • A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

    A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

  • It's Toni Sacconaghi. I just wanted to peel back the guidance a little bit more. So if I look at Q1, you're guiding for down about 11% sequentially, you're typically down 8%, I think, is the average over the last 5 years. It sounds like you're going to build backlog in PCs. Are you anticipating that your ISG backlog is also going to grow? Or is there -- is it solely attributable to PCs?

    是托尼·薩科納吉。我只是想再剝離一點指導。因此,如果我看第一季度,您將連續下降約 11%,我認為通常下降 8%,這是過去 5 年的平均值。聽起來您要在 PC 中建立積壓工作。您是否預計您的 ISG 積壓工作也會增長?或者是否存在——它完全歸因於個人電腦?

  • And then, again, thinking about the full year, if you're guiding for 11% growth in Q1 and you have kind of normal seasonality in Q2, it calls for negative growth in the second half. And it sounds like ISG will get stronger over the course of the year. So that means pretty negative growth in PCs overall. Is that the message you're trying to communicate? Or what's wrong with my logic there?

    然後,再次考慮全年,如果您在第一季度指導 11% 的增長並且您在第二季度有正常的季節性,那麼下半年就會出現負增長。聽起來 ISG 在這一年裡會變得更強大。所以這意味著個人電腦整體的負增長。那是你想要傳達的信息嗎?或者我的邏輯有什麼問題?

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Look, I don't think we see negative growth in PCs overall, Toni. And I think what we see...

    是的。看,我不認為我們看到個人電腦整體出現負增長,托尼。我認為我們所看到的...

  • A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

    A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

  • In the second half.

    在下半場。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Right. I just think -- as I said, we expect ISG and CSG to grow in Q1. Yes, there are headwinds, and we do expect ISG backlog to expand in Q1. And with what we understand about PC component availability, we do expect some PC backlog growth. That's the reason for some of the caution in, one, in the revenue dynamics I gave you; but more importantly, in some of the EPS spread that I gave you, just given some of the variability that we see.

    正確的。我只是認為 - 正如我所說,我們預計 ISG 和 CSG 將在第一季度增長。是的,存在不利因素,我們確實預計 ISG 積壓工作將在第一季度擴大。根據我們對 PC 組件可用性的了解,我們確實預計 PC 積壓訂單會有所增長。這就是我給你的收入動態中的一些謹慎的原因。但更重要的是,在我給你的一些 EPS 價差中,只是給出了我們看到的一些可變性。

  • As we work our way, if you think about sort of the midpoint of that guidance, I think that we see positive growth through the remainder of the year overall with what we know today. So we can take this off-line from a modeling perspective, but that's our thinking right now. We're optimistic about the year. The trends are in our favor. There is some short-term navigation we need to do with the supply chain dynamics.

    當我們按照我們的方式工作時,如果你考慮一下該指導的中點,我認為我們會在今年剩餘時間內看到我們今天所知道的整體正增長。所以我們可以從建模的角度離線,但這是我們現在的想法。我們對這一年持樂觀態度。趨勢對我們有利。我們需要對供應鏈動態進行一些短期導航。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Jim Suva with Citigroup.

    我們將向花旗集團的 Jim Suva 提出下一個問題。

  • James Dickey Suva - MD & Research Analyst

    James Dickey Suva - MD & Research Analyst

  • I just have 1 question. And that is you commented on your prepared comments about assessing the Western Digital situation. I just wanted to get some colors of I assume it's not that you got some contaminated bad drives out into your inventory and into the system; I assume it has more to do with supply availability and maybe even pricing. Is that right? And I assume -- or can you let us know that you have more than 1 supplier for that and kind of what you meant by those commentaries for the various outcomes?

    我只有1個問題。那就是你對你準備好的關於評估西部數據情況的評論發表的評論。我只是想獲得一些顏色,我認為這並不是說您將一些受污染的壞驅動器放入您的庫存和系統中;我認為這更多地與供應可用性甚至定價有關。那正確嗎?我假設 - 或者你能否讓我們知道你有不止一個供應商,以及你所說的各種結果的評論是什麼意思?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • Happy to answer, Jim. Yes, we have multiple partners in the world of NAND and SSDs for both client and enterprise class products. The reference that I was making is the announcement by Kioxa and Western Digital about the contamination that occurred in their factories, which means product in the factories today is contaminated. And sometime in the future, there's going to be a gap. Typically, when there's a gap of supply in a commodity that is in great demand, we see pricing pressure.

    很高興回答,吉姆。是的,我們在客戶和企業級產品的 NAND 和 SSD 領域擁有多個合作夥伴。我提到的是鎧俠和西部數據關於他們工廠發生污染的公告,這意味著今天工廠中的產品受到污染。並且在未來的某個時候,將會有一個差距。通常,當需求量很大的商品出現供應缺口時,我們會看到定價壓力。

  • So what we're trying to communicate is there's an unknown of a reasonably large size. Those 2 companies represent a large percentage of output, and that output is at risk with the contaminated factories that will have a supply impact in the future, and we're just signaling that going forward.

    所以我們試圖傳達的是一個相當大的未知數。這兩家公司代表了很大比例的產出,並且這些產出面臨受污染工廠的風險,這將對未來的供應產生影響,我們只是在發出信號。

  • I hope that -- did I answer it? I hope. I think I did.

    我希望——我回答了嗎?我希望。我想我做到了。

  • James Dickey Suva - MD & Research Analyst

    James Dickey Suva - MD & Research Analyst

  • That was great color.

    那是很棒的顏色。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

    我們將接聽西蒙利奧波德和雷蒙德詹姆斯的下一個問題。

  • Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

    Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

  • You've made this comment about having drawn down some of the backlog in PCs but then expecting backlog to build after the quarter. And I guess, I'm trying to really split hairs a bit and understand, is the rebuild of a backlog the result of demand or supply constraints or a combination? If you could unpack what's leading to backlog rising again.

    您已經發表評論說已經減少了 PC 中的一些積壓但隨後預計在本季度之後會增加積壓。而且我想,我正試圖真正分開頭髮並理解,積壓的重建是需求或供應限制的結果還是兩者兼而有之?如果你能解開導致積壓再次上升的原因。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • Do you want me take that, Tom?

    你要我拿那個嗎,湯姆?

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • You start, Jeff, and I'll jump in.

    你開始,傑夫,我會加入。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • If we look at each of the categories, what we're signaling is the semiconductor shortage that we've been talking about for a long time persists. Trailing nodes, whether it be a 40-nanometer node, a 55-nanometer node, 60-nanometer node, et cetera, a plethora of parts that go across all our devices continue to be in short supply. The output of that supply is nonlinear, meaning that sometimes it comes and sometimes it doesn't, sometimes it shows up on time, sometimes it's delayed. Working through that and taking advantage of our assembly capacity is ultimately the challenge in timing and the optimization that we're running through.

    如果我們查看每個類別,我們所發出的信號是我們長期以來一直在談論的半導體短缺仍然存在。尾隨節點,無論是 40 納米節點、55 納米節點、60 納米節點等等,我們所有設備上的大量部件仍然供不應求。該供應的輸出是非線性的,這意味著有時會出現有時不會出現,有時會準時出現,有時會延遲。解決這個問題並利用我們的裝配能力最終是我們正在經歷的時間和優化方面的挑戰。

  • So what we're signaling is that semiconductor shortage continues to hit our CSG product, most notably in our high-end display business and desktops, as Tom called out. And demand -- we see demand continuing, and our supply is short of that demand, hence, the backlog growth.

    因此,我們發出的信號是,正如 Tom 所說,半導體短缺繼續影響我們的 CSG 產品,尤其是在我們的高端顯示業務和台式機中。和需求——我們看到需求持續,我們的供應短缺,因此,積壓增長。

  • On the server side, same sort of thing with network controllers and microcontrollers and power ICs, those have been the ones that I've called out into the past. They continue to be in short supply, and demand is ahead of that supply, hence, the backlog build. And then a very similar trend, which we saw in Q4, we believe continues through the first half of this year, which is in storage, which is notably around the FPGAs and CPLDs, all of the high-speed programmable logic devices that are in those controllers that we need, again, demand ahead of supply, backlog build.

    在服務器端,與網絡控制器、微控制器和電源 IC 類似,這些都是我過去提到的。它們繼續供不應求,需求超過供應,因此積壓。然後是我們在第四季度看到的一個非常相似的趨勢,我們相信這一趨勢會持續到今年上半年,這就是存儲領域,尤其是圍繞 FPGA 和 CPLD,所有高速可編程邏輯器件都在我們需要的那些控制器,再次,需求先於供應,積壓建立。

  • So that's what we're signaling. We're signaling, I think, in Chuck's remarks and my remarks, growth in our businesses, but it's challenged with the supply.

    這就是我們要發出的信號。我認為,在查克的講話和我的講話中,我們正在發出信號,表明我們業務的增長,但供應面臨挑戰。

  • Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

    Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

  • So just to paraphrase, to make sure we all understand, demand is stable, supply chain is worse?

    因此,只是為了確保我們都明白,需求穩定,供應鏈更糟?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • Supply chain continues to be challenged. It's pretty dynamic. There's a fair amount of uncertainty. It has worsened in Q4 in servers and in storage. We think that continues into the first half and after 2 years -- or 2 quarters, excuse me, of backlog burn down on the PC side. In those 2 categories of displays and desktops, it has worsened.

    供應鏈繼續受到挑戰。它非常動態。有相當多的不確定性。第四季度服務器和存儲方面的情況惡化了。我們認為這種情況會持續到上半年,經過 2 年——或者 2 個季度,對不起,PC 端的積壓工作燒毀了。在這兩類顯示器和台式機中,情況惡化了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

    我們將向 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani 提出我們的下一個問題。

  • Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • I guess I have 1 as well. If I think about the EPS growth in fiscal '22 and certainly, you talk about long-term framework of 6% EPS growth, how does that break up, you think, in '22 between stock buybacks versus operating profit dollars growth? And maybe on the operating profit dollars growth, you can just talk about, do you see CSG and ISG margins going up in '23? Or what are the puts and takes there? That would be helpful.

    我想我也有1個。如果我考慮到 22 財年的每股收益增長,當然,你談到 6% 每股收益增長的長期框架,你認為,在 22 年股票回購與營業利潤美元增長之間,這種情況如何分解?也許關於營業利潤美元的增長,你可以談談,你認為 CSG 和 ISG 的利潤率在 23 年會上升嗎?或者那裡的看跌期權是什麼?那會很有幫助。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Amit, as it relates to the EPS growth that we chatted about are 6%-plus, right? So Look, I think you got to think about it like this. When we introduced -- if you remember the capital -- as you recall, the capital allocation framework, which is 40% to 60% shareholder capital return through a combination of share buyback and dividends, obviously, we've enacted that. We are using the share buyback program to manage dilution principally coming out of the LTI programs and the dilution that came out of the VMware spin.

    是的。阿米特,因為它與我們談論的每股收益增長有關,是 6% 以上,對吧?所以看,我認為你必須這樣想。當我們介紹時——如果你還記得資本的話——你還記得,資本分配框架,即通過股票回購和股息相結合的 40% 到 60% 的股東資本回報,顯然,我們已經制定了這個框架。我們正在使用股票回購計劃來管理主要來自 LTI 計劃的稀釋和來自 VMware 旋轉的稀釋。

  • And so from our perspective, as you move forward, if you think about our Q1 guidance, for instance, I do think that you should expect that we're in the quarter somewhere around 785 million to 790 million shares from an EPS, our share count perspective. And then will be somewhat programmatic as we move forward. And so while I don't want to get into forecasting share buyback, I will tell you that we will be thoughtful about how we do that.

    因此,從我們的角度來看,當您繼續前進時,例如,如果您考慮我們的第一季度指導,我確實認為您應該預期我們在本季度的每股收益約為 7.85 億至 7.9 億股,我們的份額計算視角。然後在我們前進的過程中會有點程序化。因此,雖然我不想預測股票回購,但我會告訴你,我們會考慮如何做到這一點。

  • We do expect -- as it relates to operating profit margin, look, I think overall, on an overall annual basis, somewhere in the -- I think if you look at consistently, we've been around $7.7 billion, $7.8 billion over the last number of years from an op inc perspective. I think we're probably somewhere $7.7 billion maybe slightly right around that range if you look for the year.

    我們確實期望 - 因為它與營業利潤率有關,所以我認為總體而言,在整體年度基礎上,在某個地方 - 我認為如果你一直看,我們一直在 77 億美元左右,超過 78 億美元從運營公司的角度來看,最近幾年。我認為如果你看一下今年,我們可能在 77 億美元左右。

  • I don't want to get into overall op margins by business. That's not something we give guidance on. But I will tell you that, look, I mean, part of what's going to be interesting for us is as we continue to drive storage demand, there is opportunity for operating margin and ISG to continue to expand. Obviously, from a CSG perspective, the last couple of years have been quite strong from an operating margin perspective. More historically, they have not been quite as strong. Some of this -- there will be some variability this year as we work our way through supply chain, the mix of the business and the demand dynamics. But overall, we think profitability should be reasonable.

    我不想按業務計算整體營業利潤率。這不是我們提供指導的東西。但我會告訴你,看,我的意思是,對我們來說有趣的部分是隨著我們繼續推動存儲需求,營業利潤率和 ISG 有機會繼續擴大。顯然,從 CSG 的角度來看,從營業利潤率的角度來看,過去幾年一直非常強勁。從歷史上看,它們並沒有那麼強大。其中一些——隨著我們在供應鏈、業務組合和需求動態方面的工作,今年會有一些變化。但總的來說,我們認為盈利能力應該是合理的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs.

    我們將向高盛的 Rod Hall 提出下一個問題。

  • Roderick B. Hall - MD

    Roderick B. Hall - MD

  • I just wanted to ask about the implied margin trajectory into fiscal Q1 in the guidance. It looks like you're guiding at least down at the EBT level, that margin down a little bit. And I wonder whether or at least you'd be willing to say that that's kind of where you see the bottom on margins. Or do you think there's potential for margins to deteriorate further? And then I have a follow-up to that.

    我只是想在指南中詢問第一財季的隱含保證金軌跡。看起來您至少在 EBT 水平上進行了指導,該利潤率下降了一點。我想知道你是否願意或者至少你願意說那是你看到邊緣底部的地方。還是您認為利潤率有可能進一步惡化?然後我對此進行了跟進。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Rod, I would think as you think about our guidance for Q1, I think if I walk the P&L for you a little bit, we gave you a revenue range, obviously, of $24.5 billion to $25.7 billion. We did talk about a tax rate of 20%. I gave you some indication on where we think OpEx needs is probably going to trend for the year. But I would think in Q1, that's pretty consistent as you bring OpEx up from that 14.7% by roughly, call it, 40 basis points, 40 to 50 basis points, as we move through the year. And then you think about the EPS I gave you, you've gotten the tax rate.

    羅德,我想當你考慮我們對第一季度的指導時,我想如果我為你稍微分析一下損益表,我們給你的收入範圍顯然是 245 億美元到 257 億美元。我們確實談到了 20% 的稅率。我給了你一些我們認為今年運營支出需求可能趨勢的跡象。但我認為在第一季度,隨著我們全年的推進,您將運營支出從 14.7% 提高了大約 40 個基點、40 到 50 個基點,這非常一致。然後你想想我給你的EPS,你得到了稅率。

  • I think interest and other is an area that we should chat about quickly just because, if you did Q4 times 4, given the amount of debt repay, you get somewhere around $1.3 billion of interest and other. I do think there will be, at some point during the year, probably later in the year, as we continue to focus on delevering, as we've talked about trending -- moving to 1.8x down to 1.5x core leverage that we will do some debt repayment. That probably -- since I've used -- I don't have any more prepayable debt, that's probably somewhere -- there will be a make well premium there. So somewhere in the -- probably safe to say somewhere in the $150 million to $200 million for the full year on -- for I/O, so you're closer to 1.5.

    我認為利息和其他是我們應該快速討論的一個領域,因為如果你做第四季度乘以 4,考慮到債務償還的金額,你會得到大約 13 億美元的利息和其他。我確實認為,在今年的某個時候,可能在今年晚些時候,隨著我們繼續關注去槓桿化,正如我們已經談到的趨勢——我們將把核心槓桿率從 1.8 倍降至 1.5 倍做一些債務償還。那可能——因為我已經使用了——我沒有更多的可預付債務,這可能在某個地方——那裡會有一個很好的溢價。因此,I/O 的某個地方——可以肯定地說,全年在 1.5 億美元到 2 億美元之間——所以你接近 1.5。

  • I think if you put all of those pieces together, you're going to come up to an operating -- or gross margin in Q1 that's slightly higher than where we ended Q4, given some of the mix of business as we look at it today. So that's -- I think that's generally how we're thinking about Q1.

    我認為,如果將所有這些部分放在一起,考慮到我們今天看到的一些業務組合,第一季度的運營或毛利率將略高於第四季度末的水平.所以這就是 - 我認為這通常是我們對第一季度的看法。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • I'm going to try and keep moving here just in the interest of folks to get on the call for a question. So I appreciate your question.

    我將嘗試繼續搬到這裡,只是為了人們的興趣,以便接聽問題的電話。所以我很欣賞你的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

    我們將向摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee 提出下一個問題。

  • Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

    Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

  • My question was really on the VMware relationship or the reseller relationship here. If I'm doing my math right, it does look like the revenue is translating to the profit line, roughly an operating loss in the quarter of about $70 million or so. So I just wanted to check if I'm doing the math right there, and if that's the quarterly run rate we should be assuming going forward. Or is there some seasonality to it that we should be mindful of? And certainly, how to think about sort of getting that back to a positive run rate in the future, what time period we should be thinking about?

    我的問題實際上是關於這裡的 VMware 關係或經銷商關係。如果我的數學計算正確,看起來收入確實正在轉化為利潤線,大約是本季度約 7000 萬美元左右的運營虧損。所以我只是想檢查一下我是否在那裡做數學,如果這是我們應該假設的季度運行率。還是我們應該注意它的一些季節性?當然,如何考慮在未來將其恢復到積極的運行率,我們應該考慮什麼時間段?

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Samik, it's -- $70 million is what's the total of that other business, which includes both principally VMware resell. It also has Virtustream and SecureWorks in it. I think on the broader frame in terms of VMware and what that resell relationship looks like, we've spent the last 5 years growing that business and that relationship with VMware. And we've taken the VMware revenue -- the Dell contribution of VMware revenue up to somewhere roughly sort of in the 30% -- mid-30% range in terms of VMware total contribution.

    是的,Samik,它是-- 7000 萬美元是其他業務的總額,其中主要包括 VMware 轉售。它還包含 Virtustream 和 SecureWorks。我認為在 VMware 和轉售關係的更廣泛框架下,我們在過去 5 年中一直在發展該業務以及與 VMware 的關係。我們已經將 VMware 收入——戴爾對 VMware 收入的貢獻提高到大約 30%——就 VMware 總貢獻而言,在 30% 的範圍內。

  • As we've talked about in the past, we -- our focus over that last -- that period of time was about velocity of VMware in terms of driving revenue and margin with -- on the VMware solution capability. So with that said, as we now have separated, if you will, through the VMware spin, we do have work to do on pricing and on working our way through the 5 years of those VMware relationships and contracts with our customers, and we are focused on resetting pricing and process over time.

    正如我們過去所談到的,我們——我們在過去的那段時間里關注的是 VMware 在推動收入和利潤方面的速度——關於 VMware 解決方案的能力。話雖如此,既然我們現在已經分開了,如果你願意的話,通過 VMware 的旋轉,我們確實需要在定價方面做一些工作,並在與我們的客戶之間的 5 年 VMware 關係和合同中努力工作,我們是專注於隨著時間的推移重置定價和流程。

  • So I do think that it's going to take us a bit of time to move that needle in terms of the operating loss you're seeing, which is, to be fair, principally, a lot of that is the -- most of that is the VMware resell dynamic. And so I think that's probably at least a 24-month journey as we think about how do we move that forward. I view it as an opportunity. We've got opportunity to improve that and drive better profitability there over time, but it will -- it's going to take some work there.

    因此,我確實認為,就您所看到的運營虧損而言,我們需要一些時間來改變這一點,也就是說,公平地說,主要是,其中大部分是 - 大部分是VMware 轉售動態。因此,我認為這可能至少需要 24 個月的旅程,因為我們會考慮如何推動這一進程。我認為這是一個機會。隨著時間的推移,我們有機會改進這一點並在那裡提高盈利能力,但它會——這將需要一些工作。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

    我們將向 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar 提出下一個問題。

  • Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • My question is more about like the forecast. I think, Jeff or Tom or Chuck, you mentioned about 3% to 4% revenue growth. And given the fact that demand is exceeding supply, supply constraint and you kind of missed the gross margin numbers, I'm kind of curious, like Dell is historically being known for excellent inventory management. So how much of the demand forecast is actually tied to supply? And could supply concerns impact your demand forecast at this point?

    我的問題更像是預測。我想,傑夫、湯姆或查克,你提到了大約 3% 到 4% 的收入增長。考慮到需求超過供應,供應限制以及您錯過了毛利率數字的事實,我有點好奇,就像戴爾歷來以出色的庫存管理而聞名。那麼,有多少需求預測實際上與供應相關?供應問題是否會影響您此時的需求預測?

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Well, look, I -- and Jeff and Chuck should jump in here. I tend to think about it like that. Supply is constrained right now. But our job, working with our -- our selling organization working with our customers just to try and capture demand and bring demand in-house and make sure we're selling the configurations that we believe we have component availability for. So I think the team does a great job with that. And if you think about our model being roughly 50% direct and 50% through the channel, we have the opportunity to shape demand.

    好吧,看,我——傑夫和查克應該跳到這裡來。我傾向於這樣想。目前供應受到限制。但是我們的工作是與我們的銷售組織合作,與我們的客戶合作,只是為了嘗試捕捉需求並在內部帶來需求,並確保我們正在銷售我們認為我們有組件可用性的配置。所以我認為團隊在這方面做得很好。如果您認為我們的模式大約是 50% 直接和 50% 通過渠道,我們就有機會塑造需求。

  • That said, I mean, there are supply constraints throughout the industry that are impacting us and are causing incremental cost, as Jeff highlighted, as given the logistics chain as parts are arriving late and we're having to move product around. So there has been some pressure on gross margin, and you noticed that in Q4.

    就是說,我的意思是,正如 Jeff 強調的那樣,整個行業的供應限制正在影響我們並導致成本增加,因為物流鏈因為零件到貨較晚,我們不得不轉移產品。因此,毛利率存在一些壓力,您在第四季度注意到了這一點。

  • Look, I think that's something that we're pricing for as we see it. Pricing efficiency as long as you have an elevated backlog, well, is a bit challenging. And ultimately, that pricing will manifest itself through the P&L as we clear backlog. So look, I think -- overall, I think as we think about gross margin for the year, I do think that our perspective is that it does tend to trend up gradually over the course of the year, not -- but there's work to do to get it there.

    看,我認為這是我們所看到的定價。只要您有較高的積壓,定價效率就有點挑戰性。最終,當我們清除積壓時,該定價將通過損益表體現出來。所以看,我認為 - 總的來說,我認為當我們考慮今年的毛利率時,我確實認為我們的觀點是它確實傾向於在一年中逐漸上升,而不是 - 但有工作做得到它那裡。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Co-COO & Vice Chairman

  • I mean, Tom, maybe an addition to that is, look, we spent the quarter looking at the part profile and optimizing shipments, taking care of our customers and the commitments we gave to our customers. We know we incurred incremental cost to do that. There's no question. And we were chasing cost with price. And with a building backlog with the demand that we spoke to, we didn't catch it. But we know we made the right decision in the best long-term interest of the company by serving our customers.

    我的意思是,湯姆,也許還有一個補充,看,我們花了這個季度查看零件配置文件和優化發貨,照顧我們的客戶和我們對客戶的承諾。我們知道我們為此付出了增量成本。沒有問題。我們以價格追逐成本。並且由於我們與之交談的需求積壓,我們沒有抓住它。但我們知道,通過為客戶服務,我們做出了符合公司最佳長期利益的正確決定。

  • Our business, our Dell model, we'll work through this. This is what our supply chain team does. Our model is differentiated. We have, we believe, the purest demand signal in the marketplace. We transmit that to our supply chain quicker and better than most in the industry. We're capable of demand shaping with our direct selling model. And our product leverage and product development model allows us to move and qualify more material, which is what we've been doing.

    我們的業務,我們的戴爾模式,我們將解決這個問題。這就是我們的供應鏈團隊所做的。我們的模型是差異化的。我們相信,我們擁有市場上最純粹的需求信號。我們比業內大多數公司更快、更好地將其傳輸到我們的供應鏈。我們有能力通過我們的直銷模式塑造需求。我們的產品槓桿和產品開發模型使我們能夠移動和鑑定更多材料,這就是我們一直在做的事情。

  • I think we've navigated the last 2 years quite well as much. As we may be saying backlog wins or headwinds in front of us, our supply chain team loves this stuff. This is what they do, and we're going to serve our customers, and we will find a way to overcome.

    我認為我們在過去 2 年中的表現也非常好。正如我們可能會說我們面前的積壓勝利或逆風,我們的供應鏈團隊喜歡這些東西。這就是他們所做的,我們將為我們的客戶服務,我們將找到克服的方法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.

    我們將向富國銀行的 Aaron Rakers 提出下一個問題。

  • Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

    Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to ask a little bit about backlog. I know in the slide deck you talk about, I think it was $41 billion or $42 billion of remaining performance obligations. And if I look at that number, last quarter, I think you actually disclosed that, that was $36 billion, but today, you're disclosing that was $41 billion. So I guess, I'm curious of what the difference is, if there's a change in the accounting of that.

    我想問一些關於積壓的問題。我知道在你所說的幻燈片中,我認為剩餘的履約義務是 410 億美元或 420 億美元。如果我看一下這個數字,上個季度,我認為你實際上披露了 360 億美元,但今天,你披露的是 410 億美元。所以我想,我很好奇有什麼區別,如果會計發生變化。

  • And then when I look at that, that difference of that RPO relative to deferred, that $14 billion, that's up from $9.4 billion a year ago. Is that how we should think about the backlog that you've built? And do you think that you exit this next year at a more normalized backlog level? And what would that maybe look like?

    然後,當我看到這一點時,RPO 相對於延期的差異,即 140 億美元,高於一年前的 94 億美元。這就是我們應該如何看待您建立的積壓工作的方式嗎?你認為你明年會以更正常的積壓水平退出嗎?那可能會是什麼樣子?

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Well, look, Aaron, it's Tom. So as you think about RPO, if I look at Q3 backlog, our RPO, I apologize, it was $41 billion, moved to $42 billion, right? So -- and you look at the ins and outs of that, which is we had talked about the fact that backlog build was pretty significant at the end of Q3. What you saw happen in Q4 was we actually took -- we were actually able to reduce backlog in the client space, but we built backlog in the ISG space. And as you might imagine, that has -- those businesses have different margin profiles, which was one of the sort of constraints or impacts on Q4 gross margin and profitability that was recorded in the P&L.

    好吧,看,亞倫,是湯姆。因此,當您考慮 RPO 時,如果我查看 Q3 積壓,我們的 RPO,我很抱歉,它是 410 億美元,移動到 420 億美元,對嗎?所以 - 你看看它的來龍去脈,我們已經談到了積壓工作在第三季度末非常重要的事實。你在第四季度看到的情況是我們實際上採取了——我們實際上能夠減少客戶空間的積壓,但我們在 ISG 空間中建立了積壓。正如您可能想像的那樣,這些業務具有不同的利潤率概況,這是損益表中記錄的對第四季度毛利率和盈利能力的限製或影響之一。

  • In terms of what's in the RPO, I mean, there's backlog change, plus there's deferred revenue component of that, plus long-term contracts that we have not yet recognized in deferred revenue but where we have performance obligations remaining. So there's a mix of types of services and capabilities in there. And so we can take that. We can further go through that with you, if that would be helpful, so.

    就 RPO 中的內容而言,我的意思是,有積壓的變化,還有遞延收入部分,以及我們尚未在遞延收入中確認但我們仍有履約義務的長期合同。所以那裡有各種類型的服務和功能。所以我們可以接受。如果有幫助,我們可以與您進一步討論。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our final question from Erik Woodridge (sic) [Erik Woodring] of Morgan Stanley.

    我們將向摩根士丹利的 Erik Woodridge (原文如此) [Erik Woodring] 提出最後一個問題。

  • Erik William Richard Woodring - Research Associate

    Erik William Richard Woodring - Research Associate

  • Maybe I'll just end the Q&A with a question on cash flow, right? Maybe how should we think about cash flow growth tracking relative to operating your net income next year? I realize you don't guide to it, but just any qualitative or quantitative thoughts that you can share there. And then any specific puts and takes we should be thinking about as we go through the year, either on a seasonal basis or just overall for the year? But that's it for me.

    也許我會用一個關於現金流的問題來結束問答,對吧?也許我們應該如何看待與明年運營淨收入相關的現金流增長跟踪?我意識到你沒有指導它,而是你可以在那里分享的任何定性或定量的想法。然後我們應該在一年中考慮任何具體的看跌期權,無論是季節性的還是全年的?但對我來說就是這樣。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Look, we -- and Erik, welcome, by the way. But as we think about cash flow, we don't guide on cash flow, but if you remember, our long-term financial framework where we talked about adjusted free cash flow being at least 100% or better from -- of net income, I think that trend holds true. If you look at our historical performance, you'd be somewhere around 1.1 to 1.3 sort of ratios there over the last number of years. It's probably a reasonable proxy to think about for the coming year.

    是的。看,我們——順便說一下,歡迎 Erik。但是當我們考慮現金流時,我們不會指導現金流,但如果你還記得,我們談到調整後的自由現金流至少 100% 或更好來自淨收入的長期財務框架,我認為這種趨勢是正確的。如果你看看我們的歷史表現,你會發現在過去幾年裡,你的比率大約在 1.1 到 1.3 之間。這可能是來年考慮的合理代理。

  • Look, I think we do have seasonal patterns in our cash flow. I think you realized that, right? Q1 typically is our weakest cash flow quarter. Q2 and Q4 have generally been our stronger cash flow quarters based upon seasonal patterns of revenue, and Q3 has been relatively a little bit softer. Those are historical patterns.

    看,我認為我們的現金流確實存在季節性模式。我想你意識到了,對吧?第一季度通常是我們現金流最弱的季度。根據季節性收入模式,第二季度和第四季度通常是我們現金流較強的季度,而第三季度則相對疲軟一些。這些都是歷史模式。

  • Having said that, I'll tell you that over the last few years, some of those patterns have changed on us given how demand has flown in the -- and given the effects of the pandemic. But I think, overall, we feel really good about our cash flow generation ability. If you look over the last 4 years, our -- on average, we've grown adjusted free cash flow by roughly 9% CAGR over that period of time while growing revenue at a 6% CAGR and growing EPS at a 16% CAGR.

    話雖如此,我會告訴你,在過去幾年中,鑑於需求的流動方式以及大流行的影響,其中一些模式已經改變了我們。但我認為,總的來說,我們對我們的現金流產生能力感覺非常好。如果你回顧過去 4 年,我們的 - 平均而言,在此期間,我們調整後的自由現金流量的複合年增長率約為 9%,而收入的複合年增長率為 6%,每股收益的複合年增長率為 16%。

  • So our cash flow generation, I think, is quite strong. I think the team has done a nice job of managing their way with the balance sheet or managing and discipline in the balance sheet. And so I feel good about our cash flow generation.

    因此,我認為我們的現金流量非常強勁。我認為團隊在管理資產負債表或管理資產負債表方面做得很好。所以我對我們的現金流產生感覺很好。

  • I don't know, Tyler, if you would add anything to that at this point?

    我不知道,Tyler,你是否會在這一點上添加任何內容?

  • Tyler W. Johnson - Senior VP & Treasurer

    Tyler W. Johnson - Senior VP & Treasurer

  • I think you gave a pretty good overview. So no, Tom, nothing to add.

    我認為你給出了一個很好的概述。所以不,湯姆,沒什麼可補充的。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • All right. All right. Thanks, everyone. We'll see you in 2 weeks in Morgan Stanley in San Francisco and Raymond James in Orlando and look for information from us on a technology-based discussion from Dell Technology World in early May.

    好的。好的。感謝大家。我們將在 2 週後在舊金山的摩根士丹利和奧蘭多的 Raymond James 與您見面,並在 5 月初的戴爾技術世界 (Dell Technology World) 上尋找我們關於技術討論的信息。

  • That wraps it. Talk to you soon.

    那包裹它。以後再聊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. We appreciate your participation. You may now disconnect at this time.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。