應用材料公司公佈了 2025 財年第二季強勁的財務業績,每股收益創歷史新高。該公司在快速成長的市場領域,尤其是人工智慧和半導體技術領域佔據有利地位。儘管面臨市場挑戰,應用材料公司仍持續增加收入並投資於創新解決方案。
該公司的高速共同創新策略和全球 EPIC 平台正在推動下一代技術的更快開發和商業化。應用材料公司對其未來的成長軌跡和在半導體行業的領導地位充滿信心。該公司預計 ICAPS 市場將實現中高個位數成長,重點關注高效能邏輯、DRAM 運算記憶體和電力電子。他們預計中國 28 奈米市場將會成長,並推出新產品以擴展到新的領域。
預計毛利率約為48%,未來將重點放在基於價值的定價和降低成本,以提高利潤率。總體而言,應用材料公司對半導體市場的長期成長機會持樂觀態度,並正在進行投資以支持這一成長。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Welcome to the Applied Materials second quarter fiscal 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Liz Morali, Vice President of Investor Relations. Liz, you may begin.
歡迎參加應用材料公司 2025 財年第二季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)現在,我想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Liz Morali。莉茲,你可以開始了。
Liz Morali Morali - President of Investor Relations
Liz Morali Morali - President of Investor Relations
Thank you. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us for today's call. With me today are Gary Dickerson, President and CEO; and Brice Hill, CFO. Before we continue, let me remind you that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including predictions, estimates, projections or other statements about future events.
謝謝。下午好,感謝您參加今天的電話會議。今天和我一起的還有總裁兼執行長加里·迪克森 (Gary Dickerson);以及財務長布萊斯·希爾 (Brice Hill)。在我們繼續之前,讓我提醒您,今天的討論包含聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述,包括對未來事件的預測、估計、預計或其他陳述。
Actual results may differ materially from those mentioned in these forward-looking statements as a result of risks and uncertainties. Information concerning these risks and uncertainties is discussed in our most recent Form 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC. We do not intend to update any forward-looking statements.
由於風險和不確定性,實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中提到的結果有重大差異。我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 表格中討論了有關這些風險和不確定性的信息。我們不打算更新任何前瞻性陳述。
During today's call, we will also reference non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release and in our quarterly earnings materials, which are available on our Investor Relations website at ir.appliedmaterials.com.
在今天的電話會議中,我們也將參考非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在今天的收益新聞稿和我們的季度收益資料中找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 結果的對帳表,這些資料可在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.appliedmaterials.com 上找到。
I will now turn the call over to Gary.
現在我將電話轉給加里。
Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Liz. In our second fiscal quarter of 2025, Applied Materials delivered strong results across the board, including record earnings per share. These results reflect great execution by our teams around the world as well as the agility and flexibility we have in our global operations and supply chain. While we are paying close attention to a highly dynamic macro environment, we have not seen significant changes in market demand. Our customers remain focused on winning the race to be first to market with transformative new technologies.
謝謝,莉茲。在 2025 財年第二季度,應用材料公司全面取得了強勁的業績,包括創紀錄的每股盈餘。這些結果反映了我們全球團隊的出色執行力以及我們全球營運和供應鏈的敏捷性和靈活性。雖然我們密切關注高度動態的宏觀環境,但我們並沒有看到市場需求發生重大變化。我們的客戶始終專注於贏得採用變革性新技術的市場競爭。
Applied is working closely with our customers and partners to accelerate the industry's road map. We are very well positioned at major technology inflections in fast-growing areas of the market, which supports our multiyear growth trajectory.
應用材料公司正在與我們的客戶和合作夥伴密切合作,以加速產業的發展路線圖。我們在市場快速成長領域的主要技術轉變中佔據著非常有利的地位,這支持了我們多年的成長軌跡。
In my prepared remarks today, I'll provide our latest market outlook. I'll explain how Applied's innovative products and services are enabling fundamental advances in semiconductor technology, and I'll describe how we are translating these innovations into sustainable, profitable growth across our business.
在我今天的準備好的發言中,我將提供我們最新的市場展望。我將解釋應用材料公司的創新產品和服務如何推動半導體技術的根本性進步,並描述我們如何將這些創新轉化為整個業務的可持續獲利成長。
Starting with our perspective on the market. The major technology trends reshaping the global economy, including IoT, automation and robotics, electric and autonomous vehicles and clean energy are all built on top of advanced semiconductors. Central to our future market outlook is AI, which is the most transformative technology of our lifetimes and has almost limitless potential use cases.
從我們對市場的看法開始。重塑全球經濟的主要技術趨勢,包括物聯網、自動化和機器人、電動和自動駕駛汽車以及清潔能源,都是建立在先進的半導體之上的。我們未來市場展望的核心是人工智慧,它是我們一生中最具變革性的技術,具有幾乎無限的潛在用途。
While we are seeing remarkable progress in AI capabilities, we are still in the early phases of a multi-decade build-out of applications and infrastructure. Large-scale deployment of AI will require major advances in computing performance and energy efficiency that can only be achieved through disruptive innovation across the technology stack. These requirements are reshaping the semiconductor road map and changing the way chips are designed and manufactured.
雖然我們看到人工智慧能力取得了顯著進步,但我們仍處於數十年應用程式和基礎設施建設的早期階段。人工智慧的大規模部署需要運算效能和能源效率的重大進步,而這只有透過整個技術堆疊的顛覆性創新才能實現。這些要求正在重塑半導體路線圖並改變晶片的設計和製造方式。
The impact of AI data center innovation and investments is apparent in the wafer fab equipment market, where there are significant shifts in the spending mix this year. We see investment in leading-edge foundry-logic growing substantially in 2025, and we also expect spending for leading-edge DRAM to be up significantly.
人工智慧資料中心創新和投資的影響在晶圓廠設備市場顯而易見,今年該市場的支出結構發生了重大變化。我們預計 2025 年對尖端代工邏輯的投資將大幅成長,我們也預期尖端 DRAM 的支出也將大幅增加。
We see lower spend in China with investments in both DRAM and mature logic down for the year. And finally, we are seeing an uptick in NAND investment, albeit from the very low levels seen over the past several years. Against this market backdrop, Applied is well positioned for 2025 and beyond.
我們發現中國今年在 DRAM 和成熟邏輯方面的投資均有所下降。最後,我們看到 NAND 投資有所上升,儘管與過去幾年的水平相比有所下降。在這樣的市場背景下,應用材料公司已為 2025 年及以後做好了充分準備。
In 2024, we underperformed the market in China due to the market access restrictions imposed on US companies. At the same time, outside of China, we grew faster than our peer group thanks to our strength in leading-edge foundry and DRAM. Trade restrictions have also had an impact on our service business.
2024年,由於美國對企業實施市場進入限制,我們在中國的表現落後於市場。同時,在中國以外,憑藉我們在尖端晶圓代工和 DRAM 領域的實力,我們的成長速度快於同行。貿易限制也對我們的服務業務產生了影響。
Despite these headwinds, we grew our core parts and services revenues in the low double-digit range last year, and we're on track to deliver a similar growth rate in 2025. On top of our growing installed base, we are successfully increasing the portion of those systems in the field covered by higher-value advanced services and comprehensive service agreements.
儘管面臨這些不利因素,去年我們的核心零件和服務收入仍實現了兩位數的低成長,並且預計在 2025 年將實現類似的成長率。除了不斷增長的安裝基礎之外,我們還成功地增加了這些系統在更高價值的高級服務和綜合服務協議所覆蓋的領域中的份額。
More than two-third of our service revenue comes from subscriptions, and we expect this percentage to further increase in the coming years. At a company level, through 2024, Applied Materials has grown revenues for five consecutive years. This momentum continues in 2025. If we take our first half results plus our third quarter guide, revenues are up 7% year-to-date.
我們超過三分之二的服務收入來自訂閱,我們預計這一比例在未來幾年將進一步增加。從公司層級來看,到2024年,應用材料公司的營收將連續五年成長。這一勢頭將在 2025 年繼續延續。如果我們將上半年的業績加上第三季的指引,今年迄今的營收將成長 7%。
Looking further ahead, we also believe we're in a great position for the future given the direction of the industry road map, our strong leadership positions at key device architecture inflections and the unique portfolio of solutions and capabilities we provide to our customers. Customers are racing to be first to market to deliver major architecture innovations in logic, compute memory, packaging and power devices, including next-generation gate-all-around transistors, backside power delivery, 4F squared and 3D DRAM, advanced packaging, compound semiconductors for power electronics and silicon photonics.
展望未來,我們也相信,鑑於行業路線圖的方向、我們在關鍵設備架構轉變方面的強大領導地位以及我們為客戶提供的獨特解決方案和功能組合,我們在未來處於有利地位。客戶正在競相搶佔市場先機,在邏輯、計算記憶體、封裝和功率元件方面實現重大架構創新,包括下一代環柵電晶體、背面供電、4F 平方和 3D DRAM、先進封裝、用於電力電子和矽光子學的複合半導體。
These technology inflections grow the market for wafer fab equipment, increase the relative mix of materials engineering technologies and provide opportunities for Applied to gain market share. Advanced foundry-logic is a great example of this. If we compare an advanced fab using integrated, gate-all-around and backside power delivery architecture to the last generation of FinFET technology, Applied's revenue opportunity is approximately 30% higher for the equivalent fab capacity.
這些技術變化促進了晶圓廠設備市場的成長,增加了材料工程技術的相對組合,並為應用材料公司贏得了市場份額。先進的代工邏輯就是一個很好的例子。如果我們將採用整合式、環繞閘極和背面供電架構的先進晶圓廠與上一代 FinFET 技術進行比較,應用材料公司在同等晶圓廠產能下的收入機會大約高出 30%。
In advanced DRAM, we're focused on addressing the most critical steps for next-generation technologies, and this has enabled us to establish a strong leadership position in this market. In 2025, we expect our revenues from advanced DRAM customers to grow more than 40% as they ramp investments in DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory.
在先進的 DRAM 領域,我們專注於解決下一代技術最關鍵的步驟,這使我們能夠在這個市場上建立強大的領導地位。到 2025 年,隨著先進 DRAM 客戶加大對 DDR5 和高頻寬記憶體的投資,我們預計這些客戶的收入將成長 40% 以上。
Across advanced foundry-logic and DRAM, we are introducing innovative new solutions that are being rapidly adopted by the market. One example is our Sym3 Magnum etch system for advanced patterning, which has generated more than $1.2 billion of revenue since we launched the product in February 2024. Another example is our breakthrough cold field emission eBeam technology that has strong momentum in gate-all-around and high-bandwidth memory and supported record revenues for our Process Diagnostic and Control business this past quarter.
在先進的代工邏輯和 DRAM 領域,我們正在推出創新的新解決方案,這些解決方案正在被市場迅速採用。其中一個例子就是我們用於高級圖案化的 Sym3 Magnum 蝕刻系統,自 2024 年 2 月推出該產品以來,已創造了超過 12 億美元的收入。另一個例子是我們突破性的冷場發射電子束技術,該技術在環柵和高頻寬記憶體領域發展勢頭強勁,並支持了我們上個季度的製程診斷和控制業務創紀錄的收入。
As we look at how the industry's road map is evolving, we see our broad capabilities and connected product portfolio as a major leadership strength. This gives us earlier visibility and a more holistic view of the industry's most valuable technical opportunities. It allows us to develop solutions to address those high-value opportunities faster, and most importantly, it means we can deliver unique solutions by co-optimizing and combining our innovations.
當我們觀察產業路線圖如何演變時,我們將廣泛的能力和互聯的產品組合視為主要的領導優勢。這使我們能夠更早了解並更全面地了解該行業最有價值的技術機會。它使我們能夠更快地開發解決方案來應對這些高價值機會,最重要的是,這意味著我們可以透過共同優化和結合我們的創新來提供獨特的解決方案。
With the pace of technology accelerating, being first to market has incredible value for our customers and Applied Materials. For this reason, another key pillar of our strategy is high-velocity co-innovation. Our goal is to increase the speed of developing and commercializing next-generation technologies through earlier and deeper collaboration with customers and partners.
隨著技術步伐的加快,率先進入市場對我們的客戶和應用材料公司來說具有不可思議的價值。因此,我們策略的另一個關鍵支柱是高速共同創新。我們的目標是透過與客戶和合作夥伴更早、更深入的合作來加快開發和商業化下一代技術的速度。
Applied's global EPIC platform is designed to support this strategy by providing unique physical and digital infrastructure to accelerate learning rates and optimize the effectiveness and efficiency of R&D resources. Construction of our new flagship R&D facility, the EPIC Center in Silicon Valley is progressing on schedule, and we expect the center to start operations in spring 2026.
應用材料公司的全球 EPIC 平台旨在透過提供獨特的實體和數位基礎設施來支援此策略,以加快學習速度並優化研發資源的有效性和效率。我們新的旗艦研發設施——位於矽谷的 EPIC 中心的建設正在按計劃進行,我們預計該中心將於 2026 年春季開始運作。
Before I hand over to Brice, I'll quickly summarize. First, while we recognize that the macro environment is highly dynamic, Applied continues to deliver strong financial performance. We are not currently seeing significant changes in customer demand, and we have agility in our global operations to adapt to a range of scenarios.
在交給 Brice 之前,我將快速總結一下。首先,雖然我們意識到宏觀環境高度動態,但應用材料公司仍持續保持強勁的財務表現。我們目前沒有看到客戶需求發生重大變化,我們的全球營運能夠靈活地適應各種情況。
Second, the race to deliver high-performance, energy-efficient AI computing remains the dominant driver of the semiconductor industry's road map. Applied is best positioned as a major device architecture inflection that will enable that road map to be realized. And third, we are seeing strong traction with our high-velocity co-innovation strategy, where earlier and deeper elaboration with our customers and partners is enabling us to bring next-generation technology to market faster than ever before.
其次,競相提供高效能、節能的人工智慧運算仍是半導體產業發展路線圖的主要驅動力。應用材料公司的最佳定位是成為實現該路線圖的主要設備架構拐點。第三,我們的高速共同創新策略獲得了強勁的推動力,透過與客戶和合作夥伴進行更早、更深入的溝通,我們能夠比以往更快地將下一代技術推向市場。
Now I'll turn the call over to Brice.
現在我將把電話轉給布萊斯。
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Thanks, Gary, and thank you to everyone joining us for today's call. We delivered another strong quarter in fiscal Q2 with robust year-over-year revenue growth, gross margin expansion and record earnings per share. These excellent results were driven by increased leading-edge foundry-logic investments given the strong end-market demand for AI-enabling semiconductors.
謝謝,加里,也謝謝參加今天電話會議的所有人。我們在第二財季再次表現強勁,營收年增強勁成長,毛利率擴大,每股盈餘創歷史新高。鑑於終端市場對人工智慧半導體的強勁需求,這些優異的業績得益於對前沿代工邏輯投資的增加。
This performance was achieved within the rapidly evolving economic and trade policy environment over the past several months. And we leveraged our global supply chain and diversified manufacturing footprint to successfully navigate the dynamic commercial landscape.
這一業績是在過去幾個月迅速變化的經濟和貿易政策環境下取得的。我們利用全球供應鏈和多元化製造足跡成功駕馭動態的商業格局。
With strong profitability and record earnings per share, we increased shareholder capital distributions during Q2 with approximately $2 billion in dividends and share repurchases and bought back approximately 1.4% of shares outstanding.
憑藉強勁的獲利能力和創紀錄的每股收益,我們在第二季度增加了股東資本分配,派發了約 20 億美元的股息和股票回購,並回購了約 1.4% 的流通股。
Turning to the details for Q2. Our results were largely in line with our expectations with total net revenue of approximately $7.1 billion, up 7% year-over-year with growth across all our business segments. Non-GAAP gross margin was 49.2%, up 170 basis points year-over-year and our highest quarterly gross margin since fiscal year 2000. The strong margin performance in Q2 was primarily driven by a favorable mix of our products and business segments.
轉向第二季的細節。我們的業績基本上符合預期,總淨收入約為 71 億美元,年增 7%,所有業務部門均成長。非公認會計準則毛利率為 49.2%,年增 170 個基點,創下 2,000 財年以來的最高季度毛利率。第二季強勁的利潤表現主要得益於我們的產品和業務部門的良好組合。
Non-GAAP operating expenses were $1.3 billion, down slightly as a percentage of revenue on a year-over-year basis with growth in R&D partially offset by decreases in G&A as we focused on funding critical technology inflection-related research. Non-GAAP earnings per share was a record $2.39, up 14% year-over-year, given the revenue growth, better profitability and share repurchases.
非公認會計準則營運費用為 13 億美元,佔收入的百分比與去年同期相比略有下降,其中研發費用的增長被一般及行政費用的減少部分抵消,因為我們專注於資助關鍵技術拐點相關的研究。由於收入成長、獲利能力提高和股票回購,非公認會計準則每股收益達到創紀錄的 2.39 美元,較去年同期成長 14%。
Moving to the segments. Semiconductor Systems revenue was $5.26 billion for Q2, up 7% year-over-year with growth in foundry-logic as customer investments at the leading-edge more than offset declines for the ICAPS nodes that serve the IoT, communications, automotive, power and sensor markets and growth in NAND upgrades more than offsetting year-over-year declines in DRAM. Non-GAAP operating margin of 36.4% was up 150 basis points year-over-year.
轉到各個部分。半導體系統第二季營收為 52.6 億美元,年成長 7%,其中代工邏輯收入成長,因為客戶在前沿領域的投資超過了服務於物聯網、通訊、汽車、電力和感測器市場的 ICAPS 節點的下滑,而 NAND 升級的成長超過了 DRAM 的同比下滑。非公認會計準則營業利益率為 36.4%,較去年同期成長 150 個基點。
Moving to Applied Global Services. AGS delivered revenue of $1.57 billion in Q2, up 2% year-over-year as healthy growth in services more than offset the expected decline in sales of 200-millimeter equipment. Non-GAAP operating margin of 28.5% was flat year-over-year. Lastly, our display business delivered revenue of $259 million with non-GAAP operating margin of 26.3%.
轉向應用全球服務。AGS 第二季營收為 15.7 億美元,年增 2%,服務業務的健康成長足以抵銷 200 毫米設備銷售額的預期下滑。非公認會計準則營業利益率為 28.5%,與去年同期持平。最後,我們的顯示器業務實現了 2.59 億美元的收入,非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 26.3%。
Moving to the balance sheet and cash flows. We ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $6.2 billion and debt of $6.3 billion, and cash from operations in the quarter was approximately $1.6 billion or 22% of revenue. Capital expenditures were $510 million, up from the year ago period and driven by the build-out of Applied Materials Equipment and Process Innovation and Commercialization center, EPIC, the largest and most advanced facility of its type globally.
轉到資產負債表和現金流量。本季結束時,我們的現金和現金等價物為 62 億美元,債務為 63 億美元,本季經營現金約為 16 億美元,佔營收的 22%。資本支出為 5.1 億美元,較去年同期有所成長,主要得益於應用材料設備與製程創新及商業化中心 EPIC 的建設,該中心是全球同類設施中規模最大、最先進的設施。
Free cash flow for Q2 was approximately $1.1 billion. As I mentioned earlier, we increased capital allocation in Q2 with total shareholder distributions of approximately $2 billion with dividends paid of $325 million and share repurchases of approximately $1.7 billion. As previously announced, during the quarter, our Board of Directors approved a 15% increase to our dividend per share.
第二季的自由現金流約為 11 億美元。正如我之前提到的,我們在第二季度增加了資本配置,股東分配總額約為 20 億美元,其中支付的股息為 3.25 億美元,股票回購約為 17 億美元。正如先前宣布的那樣,本季度,我們的董事會批准將每股股息提高 15%。
This marks another year of healthy growth for our dividend, one of our key capital allocation priorities. And as I like to point out, the dividend and its growth are closely correlated with the recurring revenue and profits in our services business. We also announced that our Board approved an additional $10 billion share repurchase authorization. And as of the end of the quarter, approximately $15.9 billion in total remains available to us for future share repurchases.
這標誌著我們的股息又實現了健康成長,股息是我們的主要資本配置重點之一。我想指出的是,股息及其成長與我們服務業務的經常性收入和利潤密切相關。我們也宣布,董事會批准了額外 100 億美元的股票回購授權。截至本季末,我們仍有約 159 億美元可用於未來股票回購。
Turning to our outlook. As we contemplate the year-over-year performance we expect in Q3, we are seeing acceleration from our leading-edge foundry-logic products, which are key enablers in the ongoing gate all-around build-out and which will more than offset a lower level of investment in the ICAPS nodes following two years of strong spending by these customers. We also expect a stable and healthy DRAM market and growth in NAND driven by upgrades.
轉向我們的展望。當我們考慮第三季預期的同比業績時,我們看到了我們領先的代工邏輯產品的加速發展,這些產品是正在進行的全門控構建的關鍵推動因素,並且將足以抵消這些客戶在兩年的強勁支出之後對 ICAPS 節點的較低投資水平。我們也預期 DRAM 市場將保持穩定健康,NAND 也將因升級而實現成長。
Factoring in these views for fiscal Q3, we expect total revenue of $7.2 billion, plus or minus $500 million, representing a 6% increase year-over-year at the midpoint; and non-GAAP EPS of $2.35, plus or minus $0.20, representing an 11% increase year-over-year at the midpoint. We expect Semiconductor System revenues of approximately $5.4 billion, up approximately 10% year-over-year; and AGS revenue of approximately $1.55, down 2% year-over-year with growth in core services impacted by the trade restrictions previously disclosed and declines in demand for 200-millimeter equipment.
考慮到這些觀點,我們預計第三財季總收入為 72 億美元,上下浮動 5 億美元,中位數同比增長 6%;非 GAAP 每股收益為 2.35 美元,上下浮動 0.20 美元,按中間值計算同比增長 11%。我們預計半導體系統營收約為 54 億美元,年成長約 10%; AGS 收入約為 1.55 美元,年減 2%,核心服務成長受到先前揭露的貿易限制和 200 毫米設備需求下降的影響。
Rounding out the business segments, we expect display revenue of approximately $250 million. Lastly, given our business mix in Q3, we expect non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 48.3% and non-GAAP operating expenses of approximately $1.3 billion, and we are modeling a tax rate of approximately 13%.
綜合各業務部門來看,我們預期顯示器收入約 2.5 億美元。最後,鑑於我們第三季的業務組合,我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率約為 48.3%,非 GAAP 營運費用約為 13 億美元,我們預測的稅率約為 13%。
In closing, while the trade environment continues to evolve, our global supply chain and diversified manufacturing capabilities provide us with significant agility and flexibility to respond to changing conditions. In the near term, we see overall demand and customer investments continuing at the expected rate and pace even in the current environment and the long-term secular drivers for growth in our business remain intact.
最後,雖然貿易環境不斷變化,但我們的全球供應鏈和多樣化的製造能力為我們提供了顯著的敏捷性和靈活性,以應對不斷變化的條件。短期內,即使在當前環境下,我們看到整體需求和客戶投資仍將以預期的速度和步伐繼續成長,並且我們業務的長期成長動力仍然完好無損。
We are positioning ourselves to benefit from the opportunities that will emerge as the equipment industry invest to support a $1 trillion-plus semiconductor market by the end of the decade, and we are investing for the growth that we expect in our business over that time.
我們正在定位自己,以從設備產業投資到本世紀末支持超過 1 兆美元的半導體市場所帶來的機會中獲益,我們正在投資以實現我們預期的業務成長。
We're now ready to begin the Q&A. Liz?
我們現在準備開始問答環節。莉茲?
Liz Morali Morali - President of Investor Relations
Liz Morali Morali - President of Investor Relations
Thanks, Brice. To help us reach as many people as we can on today's call, please limit yourself to one question. If you have an additional question, please re-que, and we'll do our best to come back to you later in the session.
謝謝,布萊斯。為了幫助我們在今天的電話會議上聯繫到盡可能多的人,請將問題限制在一個範圍內。如果您還有其他問題,請重新提問,我們將盡力在稍後的會議中回覆您。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein Research.
(操作員指示)Stacy Rasgon,伯恩斯坦研究公司。
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to dig into services in China. So last quarter, you talked about like the incremental hit from the China restrictions across equipment and services. But you -- and we saw the hit, particularly on the AGS segment. But you'd said that you returned to sequential growth in Q3. But this is not sequential growth. This is kind of flattish to maybe even down a little bit sequentially. I guess, what's going on there?
嗨,大家好。感謝您回答我的問題。我想深入了解中國的服務業。上個季度,您談到了中國對設備和服務的限制所帶來的增量衝擊。但你——我們看到了打擊,特別是在 AGS 部分。但您說過,第三季恢復了連續成長。但這並不是連續的成長。這有點持平,甚至可能比上一季略有下降。我猜,那裡發生了什麼事?
Is that just like a bigger hit than expected on 200-millimeter? Or is China worse? And what is our -- how should we be thinking about growth for this business, I guess, into the end of year? Do you think it resumes like sequential growth in Q4?
這是否就像是 200 毫米膠卷的衝擊比預期的還要大?還是中國更糟?那麼,我們該如何考慮這項業務在年底前的成長呢?您認為第四季它會恢復連續成長嗎?
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Hi, Stacy. Thanks for the question. So on the AGS, you've got a lot of those elements correct. So what we would say is the core business in Q2 had a record. And we expect the core to grow at low double digits during the year, just like you would expect for that part of the business, even with the impacts we've seen from lower China business due to those trade restrictions.
你好,史黛西。謝謝你的提問。因此,在 AGS 上,您已經獲得了許多正確的元素。因此,我們可以說第二季的核心業務創下了紀錄。我們預計核心業務今年將以低兩位數的速度成長,就像您對該部分業務的預期一樣,儘管我們看到由於貿易限制導致中國業務下滑的影響。
In the quarter, our Q2 and Q3, that's where you have the effects of some of those accounts becoming restricted. So the year-over-year growth -- we just made year-over-year growth for the quarter on AGS. And you're right, it's really the 200-millimeter equipment that slows down significantly during that quarter that makes that look weaker from a performance perspective.
在本季度,即我們的第二季度和第三季度,部分帳戶受到了限制。因此,同比增長——我們剛剛實現了本季度 AGS 的同比增長。你說得對,確實是 200 毫米設備在該季度的速度明顯放緩,從性能角度來看,這使其顯得較弱。
So I think the key things that we want our investors to think about is AGS will grow at low double digits going forward as we digest these trade rules. With our Q3 guidance, you can see that it's marginal quarter-over-quarter in total, where we'll have the full effect of all of those rules. But the core will be growing year-over-year, and we'll see that low double-digit growth for the core for the full year.
因此,我認為我們希望投資者考慮的關鍵問題是,隨著我們消化這些貿易規則,AGS 未來將以低兩位數的速度成長。透過我們的第三季指引,您可以看到,總體而言,季度環比成長幅度很小,我們將充分感受到所有這些規則的影響。但核心業務將逐年成長,全年核心業務將維持低兩位數的成長。
Going forward, after Q3, you should expect to see the sequential type of growth that you would expect to deliver that low double digit going forward. And then I would just point out just for investors to remember that, yes, we do connect our dividend to the recurring profits for that business. And it is largely a recurring revenue business. So about 90% at this point is recurring revenue with high renewals of multiyear contracts, and about 66% of the business is under those subscription agreements. So pretty strong from a recurring revenue and profit perspective. Thanks for the question.
展望未來,在第三季之後,您應該會看到連續類型的成長,預計未來將實現低兩位數的成長。然後我只想指出,只是為了讓投資者記住,是的,我們確實將股息與該業務的經常性利潤掛鉤。這在很大程度上是一項經常性收入業務。因此,目前約 90% 是透過多年期合約的高額續約而產生的經常性收入,約 66% 的業務屬於這些訂閱協議。從經常性收入和利潤的角度來看,這是相當強勁的。謝謝你的提問。
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
But it does seem like the 200-millimeter is weaker than you thought. Like is that correct?
但看起來 200 毫米確實比你想像的要弱。那是正確的嗎?
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Yes. I think that's one factor. It might be a little bit less than we thought. And then the second is we expected a little bit more in utilization for the quarter, and utilization stayed about flat for the quarter. So the spares side of the business was also probably not right up to what we expected.
是的。我認為這是一個因素。它可能比我們想像的要少一點。第二,我們預期本季的利用率會略有提高,但實際利用率基本上持平。因此備件業務方面可能也沒有達到我們的預期。
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Got it. That's helpful. Thank you.
知道了。這很有幫助。謝謝。
Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Stacy, on 200-millimeter, a lot of that business is tied to power electronics. And long term, we think that's going to be mid- to high single-digit growth. But in the near term, that business is down from where it was at previously. So again, that's one of the things that's causing that business to be weaker in the near term. But in service, we're driving a lot of service innovation. We have 8,000 tools connected in the field, and I think high confidence that will grow at low double digit going forward.
史泰西,就 200 毫米而言,許多業務都與電力電子有關。從長遠來看,我們認為這將是中高個位數的成長。但從短期來看,該業務較之前下滑。所以,這又是導致該業務短期內疲軟的原因之一。但在服務方面,我們正在推動大量服務創新。我們在該領域擁有 8,000 個連接工具,我相信未來這些工具的數量將以兩位數左右的速度成長。
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Got it. Thank you.
知道了。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.
Vivek Arya 的美國銀行證券。
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Thanks for taking my question. So if I contrast the sales growth you have versus peers, right, many of them are expecting to grow double digit. You guys are more consistent at this 7%-or-so growth rate. And the perception is your higher ICAPS exposure.
感謝您回答我的問題。因此,如果我比較一下貴公司的銷售成長情況和同業的情況,就會發現很多同業都預期會達到兩位數的成長。你們在7%左右的成長率上比較穩定。而您認為您的 ICAPS 曝光率較高。
So could you help us size what ICAPS is now as a percentage of sales? Do you think it has bottomed? Can it continue to be a headwind? And if you could give us some trends on China versus non-China ICAPS demand for the rest of the year.
那麼,您能幫我們估算一下 ICAPS 目前佔銷售額的百分比嗎?您認為它已經觸底了嗎?它能否繼續成為逆風?您能否向我們介紹今年剩餘時間內中國和非中國 ICAPS 需求的一些趨勢?
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Hi, Vivek, thanks for the question. So I guess I would start. Mature logic, ICAPS -- with the ICAPS end markets, IoT, communication, auto power sensors for us, first thing we would say is we expect mid- to high single-digit growth across the horizon heading to that $1 trillion to $1.3 trillion market by 2030 from a semi perspective.
你好,Vivek,謝謝你的提問。所以我想我會開始。成熟的邏輯,ICAPS——對於我們來說,ICAPS 終端市場、物聯網、通訊、汽車電源感測器,我們首先要說的是,從半導體角度來看,我們預計到 2030 年,該市場將實現中高個位數成長,達到 1 兆至 1.3 兆美元的規模。
And when you look inside our business, we're expecting right now -- if you look at semis and AGS, we would say mid-20s percent will be about the share of the China business for us, if that gives you a perspective there. And when we think about China specifically, we're restricted from competing with some -- in some accounts. But for the accounts that we're able to sell to, we think we're performing very well from a share perspective. We expect those markets to grow.
當您觀察我們的業務時,我們現在預計——如果您看一下半導體和 AGS,我們會說 20% 左右將是我們中國業務的份額,如果這能讓您了解這一點的話。當我們具體考慮中國時,我們在某些方面受到限制,無法與某些國家競爭。但對於我們能夠銷售的帳戶,我們認為從份額角度來看我們的表現非常好。我們預計這些市場將會成長。
And we see that market investing more and more in 28-nanometer going forward. They kind of built out the 50-plus nanometer capacity, is now focusing on 28-nanometer. And we feel like we're very well positioned on 28-nanometer. We've got the world-leading foundry positions in that node. So we're confident that -- that 25% for the business is probably a good number to think of without display, and that should grow over time looking forward.
我們看到市場未來對 28 奈米的投資越來越多。他們已經建立了 50 奈米以上的產能,現在專注於 28 奈米。我們感覺我們在 28 奈米領域處於非常有利的地位。我們在該節點擁有世界領先的代工地位。因此,我們有信心——對於不考慮展示業務的狀況而言,25% 可能是一個不錯的數字,而且這個數字在未來會隨著時間的推移而增長。
Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Vivek, maybe just to clarify, the mid-20s as a percentage of our total company revenue is China semi, including equipment and service. So that's kind of that number. And I'm sure you know and other people on the call know, we have a display business that adds a few percent to overall Applied revenue.
是的。Vivek,也許只是為了澄清一下,我們公司總收入的 25% 左右來自中國半導體,包括設備和服務。這就是那個數字。我相信您和電話中的其他人都知道,我們的顯示器業務為應用公司的整體收入增加了幾個百分點。
And what I would add, certainly, we're extremely well positioned in the big drivers for AI. If you look at high-performance logic, DRAM compute memory, high-bandwidth memory, packaging, power electronics, all of those areas are the fastest-growing areas of the market, very well positioned there.
我想補充的是,我們在人工智慧的主要驅動力方面確實佔據著極其有利的地位。如果你看一下高效能邏輯、DRAM 運算記憶體、高頻寬記憶體、封裝、電力電子,你會發現所有這些領域都是市場上成長最快的領域,並且處於非常有利的位置。
And as Brice said, in ICAPS, we expect, over time, that will grow kind of mid- to high single digits. The 28-nanometer investment, as Brice said, is increasing significantly as a percentage of the total in China. And our share there is higher. So that will help us in '25 and also going forward.
正如布萊斯在 ICAPS 中所說,我們預計,隨著時間的推移,這個數字將成長到中高個位數。正如Brice所說,28奈米投資佔中國總投資的比例正在大幅增加。我們的份額更高。這對我們在 25 年以及未來取得進展有所幫助。
The other thing I'd say about ICAPS, this has been a focus for us for more than five years. We have new products in ICAPS that will enable us to expand into large new segments. We have new products where we have significant cost innovations to better compete in cost-sensitive areas of the market. So I'm optimistic that with all of those different factors, we're going to continue to see strong growth. We've grown five years previous to this year. We're growing in the first three quarters of '25 and I think really well positioned for these key inflections.
關於 ICAPS 我想說的另一件事是,這已經成為我們五年多來關注的重點。我們在 ICAPS 中推出了新產品,這將使我們能夠擴展到新的大型領域。我們的新產品在成本方面進行了重大創新,以便在成本敏感的市場領域中更好地競爭。因此,我樂觀地認為,在所有這些不同因素的幫助下,我們將繼續看到強勁的成長。到今年為止我們已經成長了五年。我們在 2025 年前三個季度實現了成長,我認為我們已經為這些關鍵的轉折做好了充分的準備。
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
CJ Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.
CJ Muse、康托·菲茨傑拉德。
Christopher Muse - Analyst
Christopher Muse - Analyst
Yeah, good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. I guess, Brice, I wanted to focus on gross margins. I think a quarter ago, you talked about 48.2% as kind of floor reflecting China normalizing, but that would kind of trade tensions or whatnot. It might now be 48%. Was hoping you could kind of update on that. And then longer term, into '26 and beyond, can you kind of speak to how you see value-based pricing, cost reductions and balancing manufacturing across both Austin and Singapore and where the trajectory for margins could go?
是的,下午好。感謝您回答這個問題。我想,布萊斯,我想關注毛利率。我認為一個季度前,您談到 48.2% 是反映中國經濟正常化的底線,但這會引發貿易緊張局勢或其他問題。現在可能是48%。希望您能對此進行更新。那麼從長遠來看,到 26 年及以後,您能否談談您如何看待基於價值的定價、成本削減和平衡奧斯汀和新加坡的製造,以及利潤率的走勢如何?
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Thanks, CJ. Good to hear from you. Yes, 48.2%. So obviously, we had 49.2% in the quarter. We talked about a very -- in the Q2, we talked about a very favorable mix. And our guide is 48.3%. And you're right, we highlighted -- investors might remember last year, we were in the 47s -- mid-47s, and we were hoping that we could get it into the 48s. And we've done -- we've made good progress on pricing, cost management and logistics improvements. And so I do feel like the low 48s, probably right around 48.2% to 48.3% is the right level where the company is operating at this point.
謝謝,CJ。很高興收到你的來信。是的,48.2%。顯然,本季我們的比率為 49.2%。我們在第二季討論了非常有利的組合。我們的指導是 48.3%。您說得對,我們強調過——投資者可能還記得,去年我們的利潤在 47 到 47 左右,我們希望能夠達到 48 左右。我們已經做到了——我們在定價、成本管理和物流改進方面取得了良好的進展。因此,我確實覺得 48% 以下,大概在 48.2% 到 48.3% 左右是公司目前營運的正確水準。
And that has modest impact from tariffs. So in Q2, very small impact from tariffs because we had inventory positions that were pre-tariff. And then in Q3, in our guidance, also modest effective tariff because you pointed out, we have a very flexible manufacturing operation with a global footprint. We have a global supply chain. We've worked for years since COVID on duplicating sources across the globe. And we'll be making price adjustments for the things that cannot be managed from a tariff perspective.
關稅的影響不大。因此,在第二季度,關稅的影響非常小,因為我們的庫存狀況是在關稅生效之前。然後在第三季度,在我們的指導中,有效關稅也適中,因為您指出,我們的製造業務非常靈活,業務遍布全球。我們擁有全球供應鏈。自新冠疫情爆發以來,我們多年來一直致力於複製全球資源。對於關稅方面無法管理的事項,我們將進行價格調整。
So our guidance for Q3 really reflects being able to manage that environment very well and having the flexibility to manage it very well. Then the last thing to say on the pricing, we do feel like we're making very good progress with value-based pricing and cost management. And I would just say that our expectation is we'll continue to make improvements to that level of margin as we go forward.
因此,我們對第三季的指導確實反映了我們能夠很好地管理該環境,並且具有良好的靈活性。最後要說的是定價,我們確實覺得我們在基於價值的定價和成本管理方面取得了非常好的進展。我只想說,我們的期望是,在未來的發展中,我們將繼續提高利潤率。
Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
CJ, this is Gary. One thing I would say, aligned with what Brice talked about, we've been driving cost improvements. We've made a lot of progress there. We're also driving better value capture as we go forward. We're enabling many of these really critical inflections for the industry.
CJ,這是加里。我想說的一件事是,與布萊斯所說的一致,我們一直在推動成本改進。我們在那裡取得了很大進展。隨著我們不斷前進,我們也在努力實現更好的價值獲取。我們正在為這個行業實現許多真正關鍵的轉變。
And I think the thing that I would focus on here is sustainable an improvement. We made progress this year. We've been making progress over the last few years. But I really believe that the initiatives that we're driving in cost improvements, the initiatives we're driving in value capture, all of those things will assist going forward. And we'll continue to see progress this year and in future years.
我認為我在這裡要關注的是可持續的改進。我們今年取得了進步。過去幾年我們一直在取得進展。但我確實相信,我們在成本改進方面採取的舉措、我們在價值獲取方面採取的舉措,所有這些都將有助於未來的發展。今年以及未來幾年我們將繼續看到進步。
Operator
Operator
Melissa Weathers, Deutsche Bank.
德意志銀行的梅莉莎‧韋瑟斯。
Melissa Weathers - Analyst
Melissa Weathers - Analyst
Hi, there. Thank you for taking my question. On the DRAM side of things, it seems like HBM has really helped put a floor in DRAM WFE spending since cyclically, we're still kind of bouncing along the bottom. But HBM does still seem to be driving nice growth. So can you help us understand the puts and takes on how to balance those two dynamics going forward? Like how do we think about the cyclical piece of DRAM compared to the HBM upside that you're seeing?
你好呀。感謝您回答我的問題。從 DRAM 方面來看,HBM 似乎確實幫助 DRAM WFE 支出奠定了基礎,因為從週期性來看,我們仍然在底部徘徊。但 HBM 似乎仍在推動良好的成長。那麼,您能否幫助我們了解如何在未來平衡這兩種動態?例如,與您所看到的 HBM 優勢相比,我們如何看待 DRAM 的周期性部分?
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Okay, Melissa. Yes, thinking about the HBM component, so from a wafer starts perspective, I think in this year, HBM as a component of DRAM should reach 16%. And what we would highlight there is it's growing at a 40% rate, similar to the AI data center-type components on the data center side.
好的,梅麗莎。是的,考慮到 HBM 組件,從晶圓開始的角度來看,我認為今年,HBM 作為 DRAM 的組成部分應該達到 16%。我們要強調的是,它的成長率為 40%,類似於資料中心方面的 AI 資料中心類型元件。
So that has put DRAM in total, including HBM equipment, really continuing to operate at very high levels. So at least on our side, I wouldn't say cyclical low. I'd actually say maybe last year was a record year. This year will be close to a record year or it could be a record -- DRAM is very strong. And the way we think of it is it's being pulled by that AI leading-edge. And all the compute memory that's needed for that and the HBM is a great example of that.
因此,包括 HBM 設備在內的 DRAM 整體確實繼續在非常高的水平上運行。因此,至少從我們的角度來看,我不會說這是周期性的低點。我實際上想說去年可能是創紀錄的一年。今年將接近創紀錄的一年,或者可能創下紀錄——DRAM 非常強勁。我們認為它正在受到人工智慧前沿技術的推動。所有需要的計算記憶體以及 HBM 就是一個很好的例子。
So hopefully, that gives you a perspective. From our side, that business is operating very strongly across all those end technologies.
希望這能給你一個視角。從我們的角度來看,該業務在所有這些終端技術領域的運作都非常強勁。
Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Melissa, this is Gary. I would add that -- if you look over -- a little over a decade, we've gained 10 points of market share in DRAM. And this -- the compute memory is going to be one of the fastest-growing areas of the market over time. So if you look at, especially in the AI data center, that business is growing very quickly. And we talked about with DDR5 and HBM, 40% growth with our top 3 leading customers. So that business is growing at a high rate, and we are very strongly positioned.
是的。梅麗莎,這是加里。我想補充一點——如果你回顧一下——在過去的十多年裡,我們在 DRAM 的市佔率已經成長了 10 個百分點。隨著時間的推移,計算記憶體將成為市場成長最快的領域之一。所以如果你看一下,特別是在人工智慧資料中心,這個業務正在成長非常快。我們談到了 DDR5 和 HBM,我們的前三大客戶實現了 40% 的成長。因此,該業務正在高速成長,而且我們處於非常有利的地位。
If you look at what we've been able to achieve in terms of share gains in DRAM and where the DRAM architectures are going to the future, the next big inflection is 4F squared. That architecture is a great opportunity for Applied. We're deeply engaged with all of those different customers. And we will outperform with all of our innovations as that new architecture is adopted. So again, very strong growth in DRAM for Applied, outperformance in the past and well positioned going forward.
如果你看看我們在 DRAM 份額成長方面所取得的成就以及 DRAM 架構的未來發展方向,那麼下一個重大轉折點就是 4F 平方。這種架構對於應用材料來說是一個絕佳的機會。我們與所有這些不同的客戶都保持著密切的聯繫。隨著新架構的採用,我們的所有創新都將超越以往。因此,應用材料公司的 DRAM 業務成長非常強勁,過去表現優異,未來定位良好。
Melissa Weathers - Analyst
Melissa Weathers - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Harlan Sur, JP Morgan.
哈蘭‧蘇爾,摩根大通。
Harlan Sur - Analyst
Harlan Sur - Analyst
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Last couple of earnings calls, you guys have been articulating a leading-edge, foundry-logic and leading-edge memory spending acceleration as we move through the year, which implies that calendar second half spending on leading-edge technologies will be higher versus the first half spend. Is that still the team's view?
午安.感謝您回答我的問題。在最近的幾次財報電話會議上,你們一直在明確表示,隨著今年的推進,尖端、代工邏輯和尖端內存的支出將加速,這意味著下半年尖端技術的支出將高於上半年。這仍然是球隊的觀點嗎?
And then kind of tied to that, right, advanced technology drives more penetration of your integrated system solutions. I think you guys exited last year with integrated solutions representing about 30% of your overall systems business. Where do you anticipate that mix exiting this fiscal year?
然後與此相關,先進的技術推動了整合系統解決方案的進一步滲透。我認為你們去年退出時整合解決方案佔了整體系統業務的 30% 左右。您預計本財年該組合將走向何方?
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Great. Harlan, so on the leading edge, definitely accelerating. And what we were highlighting in previous quarters as we sort of were thoughtful about the slower investment rate in ICAPS in the mature technologies after two years of very rapid growth, we were all hoping that leading-edge would begin to accelerate after a lesser year in '24 and '23. And that's exactly what we're seeing.
偉大的。哈蘭 (Harlan) 處於領先地位,並且正在加速發展。我們在前幾個季度強調的是,在經歷了兩年非常快速的成長之後,我們對 ICAPS 在成熟技術領域的投資速度放緩進行了一番思考,我們都希望在經歷了 24 年和 23 年的低迷之後,前沿技術能夠開始加速發展。這正是我們所看到的。
So you see a pickup through the course of the year. That should be matched hopefully by all the things that you see in the market. If you look at the cloud service providers' CapEx, those numbers have only been going up. We've seen recent announcements of new factories and spending from the leading logic companies.
因此,您會看到全年經濟狀況有所改善。希望這與你在市場上看到的所有東西相匹配。如果你看一下雲端服務供應商的資本支出,你會發現這些數字一直在上升。我們看到最近領先的邏輯公司宣布了新工廠和支出計劃。
So yes, I think we expect to be enduring. When we think about all the technologies that are packed around AI data center, so DRAM, HBM, advanced packaging, and of course, leading logic where there's 100% utilization on the front end there, that is accelerating. And then on the integrated equipment, we're still averaging approximately 30% so you can look at that as growing at the 7% rate -- almost 7% rate that we see the business growing at this point in time.
所以是的,我認為我們希望能夠持久。當我們考慮圍繞 AI 資料中心的所有技術時,DRAM、HBM、先進封裝,當然還有前端利用率為 100% 的領先邏輯,這些都在加速發展。然後在整合設備上,我們的平均成長率仍然約為 30%,因此您可以將其視為以 7% 的速度成長 - 我們看到目前業務成長率接近 7%。
Harlan Sur - Analyst
Harlan Sur - Analyst
Perfect. Thank you.
完美的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Timothy Arcuri, UBS Securities.
提摩西‧阿庫裡 (Timothy Arcuri),瑞銀證券。
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Thanks. I had a clarification and a question. So Brice, I just wanted to clarify what this is for the entire year this year. So I think you were talking about low double-digit growth, but I would assume that the back half is up like 30% half-on-half. So is that really the message where you keep talking about the core part of service? That's what's going to grow low double digit? So can you just tell us what you think the total business will grow for this year?
謝謝。我有一個澄清和一個問題。所以布萊斯,我只是想澄清一下今年全年的情況。所以我認為您談論的是低兩位數的成長,但我認為下半年的成長速度會達到上半年的 30% 左右。那麼,您一直在談論的真的是服務的核心部分嗎?那會是低兩位數的成長嗎?那麼您能告訴我們您認為今年的整體業務將會成長多少嗎?
And then my question is, most of the other companies expect WFE to be pretty first half-weighted this year. I know you don't talk about the market as a whole, but can you give us a sense of whether you would also say that markets first half-weighted this year?
我的問題是,大多數其他公司預計今年 WFE 的權重將相當大。我知道您沒有談論整個市場,但您能否告訴我們,您是否也認為今年市場首先是半加權的?
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Okay, Tim. Thanks. So on the services, yes, when we think about core, we're stripping out the 200-millimeter equipment sales for that. So if you had an estimate in prior years of what those components were, for our core, we're hitting a record in this quarter. We'll have a record next quarter, and we're saying for the whole year, even despite losing -- not being able to serve some of those accounts in China, we will have low double-digit growth in the core business, so without that 200-millimeter.
好的,提姆。謝謝。因此,就服務而言,是的,當我們考慮核心時,我們會剔除 200 毫米設備的銷售。因此,如果您對前幾年這些組成部分的情況進行過估計,那麼對於我們的核心而言,我們將在本季度創下紀錄。我們下個季度的業績將創下紀錄,我們預計全年業績將有所下滑,儘管我們無法為中國市場的部分客戶提供服務,但我們的核心業務仍將保持低兩位數的增長,因此即使沒有 200 毫米的跌幅,我們也依然可以期待。
The 200-millimeter will make the overall AGS business growth look much smaller for the year. And so we'll have to see where that lands. But it'll be much smaller for the year. And then for first half, second half, we're talking about three quarters for Applied that are growing almost 7%.
200 毫米將使今年整體 AGS 業務的成長看起來小得多。所以我們必須看看結果如何。但今年的規模將會小很多。然後就上半年和下半年而言,我們談論的是應用材料公司前三個季度的成長率接近 7%。
And what we would say is the trends that are pulling the business seem fairly durable to us. And we've talked about leading-edge accelerating. So without filling in two more quarters, we'll have to see where that goes. But we haven't seen really a change in the trajectory of demand or the trajectory of those trends in the last 90 days.
我們想說的是,推動業務發展的趨勢對我們來說似乎相當持久。我們已經討論了前沿加速問題。因此,如果不再填寫兩個季度,我們必須看看情況會如何發展。但在過去 90 天裡,我們並沒有看到需求軌跡或這些趨勢軌跡有真正的改變。
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Okay. So you have to say that the back half will be pretty flat with the first half? Is that the message?
好的。所以你必須說後半部會與前半部相當平坦?這就是資訊嗎?
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
It's not really the message. Like I said, we won't fill in those last two quarters. Probably when you're thinking calendar year, that would be our Q4 and part of our Q1. So we're not giving specific guidance for that. But what we would say is almost 7% year-over-year so far, year-to-date for the company. And the trends that are pulling on the market seem fairly durable. So hopefully, that helps.
這並不是真正的訊息。就像我說的,我們不會填補最後兩個季度。當您考慮日曆年時,那可能是我們的第四季和第一季的一部分。因此,我們不會對此提供具體的指導。但我們可以肯定的是,今年迄今為止,該公司的銷售額年增了近 7%。推動市場的趨勢似乎相當持久。希望這能有所幫助。
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Okay, thanks.
好的,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.
Krish Sankar,TD Cowen。
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Hi. Thanks for the question. I also had a question and a clarification. Gary, just had a longer-term question for you. You're clearly gaining traction in new technologies like gate-all-around, backside power delivery. But when I look at your leadership products more on a unit process specification level, it feels like TBD is moving to ALD. On CVD, etch and CMP you always had the US, Japanese competition, but you have some alleged Chinese competition, too, in the segment.
你好。謝謝你的提問。我也有一個問題需要澄清。加里,我只是想問你一個長期的問題。您顯然在諸如環柵、背面供電等新技術方面獲得了關注。但是,當我從單位流程規範層面上更多地審視你們的領導產品時,感覺 TBD 正在轉向 ALD。在 CVD、蝕刻和 CMP 領域,你總是會面臨美國、日本的競爭,但據稱在該領域也存在來自中國的競爭。
So I'm just kind of wondering how to think about your leadership product momentum over the next one to threeyears, some of these shifts in competition. And also, can you give any color or rationale on the 9% Besi stake.
所以我只是有點想知道,您如何看待未來一到三年的領導產品勢頭,以及競爭中的一些轉變。另外,您能否解釋一下 Besi 9% 股份的含義或理由?
Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure, Krish. Thanks. So the way I would think about it, if you look at our leadership products, they're really targeted at the biggest inflections that are being driven by AI. And so in high-performance logic, what we've said is that we will -- for gate-all-around and backside power distribution, those are the two big inflections that are going forward, we'll gain share. And we are extremely well positioned to capture more than 50% of the available opportunity in those inflections. So again, very strongly positioned there.
當然,克里什。謝謝。所以我認為,如果你看看我們的領導力產品,你會發現它們真正針對的是人工智慧所推動的最大變革。因此,在高性能邏輯方面,我們說過,對於環繞閘極和背面配電,這是未來發展的兩大轉捩點,我們將獲得市場份額。我們處於非常有利的位置,可以抓住這些變化中超過 50% 的可用機會。所以,我們再次強調,我們在那裡佔據著非常強勢的地位。
In compute memory and DRAM, again, that's another one that's being driven by AI. And I mentioned that earlier, we gained in a little over a decade about 10 points of share in DRAM. And we're, again, very well positioned in DRAM on the last 6F Squared nodes. And also for 4F squared, we're even better positioned. I met in the last month, I think pretty much all of those DRAM CEOs and most of the foundry-logic CEOs, very strong positions, very deep engagements.
在計算記憶體和 DRAM 方面,這也是由 AI 驅動的領域。我之前提到過,我們在十多年的時間裡在 DRAM 領域的份額增加了約 10 個百分點。而且,我們在最後 6F Squared 節點的 DRAM 領域再次佔據非常有利的位置。對於 4F 平方,我們的位置更加有利。我上個月見過幾乎所有 DRAM 首席執行官和大多數代工邏輯首席執行官,他們地位都很高,參與度也很高。
And then if you look at high-bandwidth memory, we have high share there. Advanced packaging is another one, where there are tremendous architecture inflections. And we're just very, very well positioned. So Krish, again, I have high confidence that we will gain share as those inflections happen. And we have visibility because we have such deep relationships with all of these different customers. And one of the things that everybody is focused on is this theme of high-velocity co-innovation.
如果你看一下高頻寬內存,我們在那裡佔有很高的份額。先進封裝是另一個例子,其中存在巨大的架構變化。我們的定位非常非常有利。因此,克里什,我再次堅信,隨著這些轉變的發生,我們的市佔率將會增加。我們之所以具有知名度,是因為我們與所有這些不同的客戶建立了深厚的關係。每個人都關注的焦點之一就是高速共同創新這個主題。
Everybody is racing to be first to market with those new architecture inflections. Whoever gets there first wins big. Everybody else is left behind. So I think what that's driving is earlier and deeper collaborations with those customers. And so again, we have very high visibility on our positions going forward for all of those major architecture inflections.
每個人都在競相搶先機,將這些新的架構變革推向市場。誰先到達那裡誰就獲得大獎。其他人都被拋在後面了。所以我認為這將推動與這些客戶進行更早、更深入的合作。因此,我們對所有這些主要架構變化的未來立場都有很高的透明度。
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Yes. I got it. And Krish, on Besi, so five-year relationship with Besi. We recently extended our collaboration agreement, working very well with them. I think you know our perspective on energy-efficient compute is their solution, combined with our solutions for die-to-wafer bonding will be very important for that energy road map going forward.
是的。我得到了它。Krish 和 Besi 有五年的合作關係。我們最近延長了合作協議,與他們合作得非常好。我想您知道我們對節能運算的看法是他們的解決方案,再加上我們的晶片到晶圓鍵合解決方案,對於未來的能源路線圖非常重要。
And so we felt -- as we extended the collaboration agreement, we felt that we wanted to make an investment in their company at the same time. And on the 9%, no specific information to share there. We had a lot of investments during the quarter in addition to that with our EPIC facility that we're building, the world-class fab in Sunnyvale and then also the share buybacks that we mentioned. So that was -- that's our -- the information that we have to share there.
因此,我們覺得——當我們延長合作協議時,我們覺得我們想同時對他們的公司進行投資。關於 9%,沒有具體資訊可以分享。除了我們正在建造的 EPIC 工廠、位於桑尼維爾的世界級工廠以及我們提到的股票回購之外,我們在本季度還進行了大量投資。這就是——這就是我們的——我們必須在那裡分享的訊息。
Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Krish, what I would say also, I've personally been involved working with Besi for many years. They are the leader in die-to-wafer and die-to-die bonding. And our teams have developed an integrated hybrid bonding product with six technologies integrated together. There was a question about integrated products earlier on the call.
是的。Krish,我還想說的是,我個人已經與 Besi 合作多年了。他們是晶片對晶圓和晶片對晶片鍵合領域的領導者。我們的團隊開發出了整合六種技術的整合式混合鍵結產品。早些時候,電話會議中提出了一個關於整合產品的問題。
So in this case, this is a really important innovation for the most advanced in AI memory chips, where, again, we have an Applied platform with the Besi bonder along with five other technologies. And we think this is going to be a meaningful growth driver going forward and contribute to a very strong growth rate in our advanced packaging business going into the future.
因此,在這種情況下,這對於最先進的 AI 儲存晶片來說是一項非常重要的創新,我們再次擁有一個具有 Besi 鍵合機的應用平台以及其他五種技術。我們認為這將成為未來有意義的成長動力,並有助於我們未來先進封裝業務的強勁成長率。
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Thanks, Gary.
謝謝,加里。
Operator
Operator
Mehdi Hosseini, Susquehanna International Group.
薩斯奎漢納國際集團的 Mehdi Hosseini。
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Yes. Thanks for taking my question. This is for the team. What are the key assumptions embedded in the low and the high end of your July quarter revenue guide of $6.7 billion to $7.7 billion?
是的。感謝您回答我的問題。這是為了團隊。您 7 月季度營收預測中 67 億美元至 77 億美元的低端和高端包含哪些關鍵假設?
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Thanks, Mehdi. That's an astute observation. We widened our range by $100 million at this point. So it's plus or minus $500 million for the quarter. We had been doing plus or minus $400 million. And it Was really two things. We hadn't changed that in the last few years. And so the business is obviously larger. So we typically ask ourselves whether we should increase the range.
謝謝,Mehdi。這是一個敏銳的觀察。此時,我們將範圍擴大了 1 億美元。因此本季的利潤為正負 5 億美元。我們的營業額大約在 4 億美元左右。這實際上是兩件事。過去幾年我們並沒有改變這一點。因此業務顯然規模更大。因此我們通常會問自己是否應該增加範圍。
And then certainly, during this period, as we saw during the quarter, there was a lot of volatility in the macro, in the market, in geopolitical, in trade, et cetera. And so we felt there's a number of scenarios that are being thought about, and so we thought it was a good time to widen the range. So there's nothing algorithmic or mathematical in this selection. We just thought we would indicate that there's more volatility in the environment than typical.
當然,正如我們在本季看到的那樣,在此期間,宏觀、市場、地緣政治、貿易等方面都存在著很大的波動。因此,我們覺得有很多種情況正在考慮中,所以我們認為現在是擴大範圍的好時機。因此,這個選擇中沒有任何演算法或數學。我們只是想表明環境的波動性比典型情況大。
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
And I assume that's more impacting the ICAP business than the leading-edge, which is more strategic, right?
我認為這對 ICAP 業務的影響比對尖端技術的影響更大,因為前沿技術更具策略性,對嗎?
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Could you say again, please?
請再說一次好嗎?
Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Mehdi, I think it really is the revenue size is larger. And there are changes that are happening from a regulatory standpoint, tariffs, those things that create more uncertainty. And so it's really a combination of those two things. But it was a very small change in range. But again, it's just those factors.
是的。梅赫迪,我認為收入規模確實更大。從監管角度來看,關稅等變化正在產生,這些變化帶來了更多的不確定性。所以這其實是這兩件事的結合。但這是一個非常小的改變。但同樣,這只是這些因素。
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Thank you, guys.
謝謝你們。
Operator
Operator
Srini Pajjuri, Raymond James.
Srini Pajjuri,雷蒙德‧詹姆斯。
Srinivas Pajjuri - Analyst
Srinivas Pajjuri - Analyst
Thank you. My question is on the NAND business. I know it's a relatively small business for you, but it's up nicely. And I think you're guiding for growth again. On one hand, your customers are talking about taking utilization down. And on the other hand, you and your peers are talking about spending improving. So if you could talk to the sustainability of the NAND growth and what exactly is driving it, I think that would be helpful.
謝謝。我的問題是關於 NAND 業務的。我知道這對您來說是一個相對較小的生意,但它發展得很好。我認為您再次引領了成長。一方面,您的客戶正在談論降低利用率。另一方面,您和您的同事正在談論改善支出。因此,如果您能談談 NAND 成長的可持續性以及推動其成長的具體因素,我認為這將會很有幫助。
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Sure, Srini. This is Brice. Thanks for the question. So on the NAND business, it has ticked up both in our Q2 and in our Q3, obviously, coming from lower levels. But yes, I think for that business, agree that utilization is lower, but most of those investments are made to upgrade process technologies and upgrade factories to the latest nodes.
當然,Srini。這是布萊斯。謝謝你的提問。因此,就 NAND 業務而言,我們的第二季和第三季都有所上升,顯然是從較低水準開始的。但是是的,我認為對於該業務來說,同意利用率較低,但大部分投資都用於升級製程技術和將工廠升級到最新節點。
We see low 20s percent bit demand from a growth rate perspective going forward. And the way that the customers have been supplying that is by improving their technologies and advancing those nodes. So most of the business is upgrades, and I would say they don't really change their plans on upgrades.
從成長率的角度來看,我們預計未來比特需求將低於 20%。客戶一直以來提供這種服務的方式是改進他們的技術並推進這些節點。因此,大部分業務都是升級,我想說他們並沒有真正改變升級計劃。
With a change in utilization, they'll focus on having the density advancement they need from a tech perspective. So really, I think it's just that, that these are investments they make with the lead time and they're thinking about upgrading the technology.
隨著利用率的變化,他們將專注於從技術角度實現所需的密度提升。所以實際上,我認為這只是他們在準備時間內進行的投資,他們正在考慮升級技術。
Operator
Operator
Timm Schulze-Melander, Redburn Atlantic.
梅蘭德 (Timm Schulze-Melander),Redburn Atlantic。
Timm Schulze-Melander - Analyst
Timm Schulze-Melander - Analyst
Yeah, hi. Thanks very much for taking my question. So I had a question on advanced packaging. And I guess it's a question for Gary here, which is around kind of Applied Materials' appetite for risk. So it's an emerging application. It's obviously growing very fast. But also maybe the technologies that are going to be needed on a two, three, four year view in advanced packaging may evolve, may change.
是的,你好。非常感謝您回答我的問題。我對先進封裝有一個疑問。我想這是加里要問的問題,關於應用材料公司的風險偏好。所以它是一個新興的應用程式。顯然,它的成長速度非常快。但也許從兩到四年來看先進封裝所需的技術可能會發展,可能會改變。
And I just maybe wanted to ask kind of what is Applied's appetite for risk for maybe trying new things, new technologies to serve that market. Thank you.
我只是想問一下,應用材料公司在嘗試新事物、新技術來服務該市場時,對風險的承受能力如何。謝謝。
Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Tim, so in advanced packaging, this is going to be one of the most important inflections of the industry. How you connect together all of the different high-performance logic, the compute memory, DRAM, high-bandwidth memory, all of those different chiplets and different components, there's going to be tremendous innovation in advanced packaging.
提姆,在先進封裝領域,這將成為業界最重要的轉捩點之一。如何將所有不同的高效能邏輯、運算記憶體、DRAM、高頻寬記憶體、所有不同的晶片和不同的元件連接在一起,先進封裝領域將會出現巨大的創新。
So Applied, we've been investing and we're the leader in that market. We've been investing for a number of years with new capabilities. We have an advanced packaging lab in Singapore, a full flow lab, where some of our leading customers are working with us there on these new architectures. So I think we have -- a good thing for us is that we have very high visibility in where the industry is going. And I talked about this concept of high-velocity co-innovation. We are working with our customers to shape the industry road map, I think more than anyone else.
因此,我們一直在投資應用材料公司,並且我們是該市場的領導者。多年來,我們一直致力於投資新的能力。我們在新加坡擁有一個先進的封裝實驗室,一個全流程實驗室,我們的一些主要客戶正在與我們一起研究這些新架構。所以我認為——對我們來說一件好事是我們對產業的發展方向有很高的了解。我談到了高速共同創新的概念。我認為,我們正在與客戶合作,共同塑造產業路線圖,這比任何人都要多。
And so when we're placing those bets, you talked about appetite for risk, we have pretty high visibility where to place the bets because we're in such deep and connected relationships with the customers. And we have this broad, unique and connected portfolio. So we're in deep relationships with our customers and even our customers' customers as they're looking at inflections in packaging, AI connectivity, those areas.
因此,當我們下注時,正如您談到的風險偏好,我們對下注的位置有很高的可見性,因為我們與客戶的關係非常深厚且緊密。我們擁有廣泛、獨特且互聯的產品組合。因此,我們與客戶,甚至客戶的客戶都建立了深厚的關係,因為他們正在關注包裝、人工智慧連接等領域的變化。
So again, I have very high confidence there, innovations that we're driving that will expand our total available market in packaging. And we're extremely well positioned. We've grown significantly over the last few years in packaging, 4 times revenue in the last five years. And I have high confidence that we'll continue a very high growth rate going forward.
因此,我對此非常有信心,我們正在推動的創新將擴大我們在包裝領域的總可用市場。我們的定位非常有利。過去幾年,我們的包裝業務取得了顯著成長,過去五年的收入成長了四倍。我非常有信心,我們未來將繼續保持很高的成長率。
Timm Schulze-Melander - Analyst
Timm Schulze-Melander - Analyst
Great, very helpful. Thank you.
非常好,很有幫助。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Charles Shi, Needham & Company.
Charles Shi,Needham & Company。
Charles Shi - Analyst
Charles Shi - Analyst
Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I have a question more on China. I think maybe two months ago at Semicon China, there's a new company called Scaria. They launched 30 new tools, I believe, lots of overlap with AMAT's portfolio. But I think the common perception based on what I'm hearing is Applied probably has likely the greater downside and a lot of the peers with all these new companies emerging in China.
嘿,下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。我還有一個關於中國的問題。我想大概兩個月前的Semicon China展會上,有一家名為Scaria的新公司。他們推出了 30 種新工具,我相信,其中有許多與 AMAT 的產品組合重疊。但我認為,根據我所聽到的消息,普遍的看法是應用材料公司可能面臨更大的不利因素,而且在中國,與許多新興公司相比,應用材料公司面臨的不利因素也更大。
Wanted to ask if any thoughts you can provide on that particular competitor. And what could be the implications for -- in Applied's market share, especially, I think the team just talked about actually gaining more share in China as the customers more transitioning from 55-, 40-nanometer to 28-nanometer?
想問您對該特定競爭對手有何看法。這對應用材料公司的市佔率有何影響?特別是,我認為團隊剛才談到,隨著客戶從 55 奈米、40 奈米向 28 奈米過渡,應用材料公司實際上會在中國獲得更多份額?
Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hi, Charles. Thanks for the question. So again, just to remind you, China semi is in the mid-20s, including equipment and services, as a percentage of total company revenue. And as we talked about earlier, 28-nanometer, where the investment is increasing, we have higher share. And I think the most important thing for us is we have a great innovation pipeline in ICAPS. We formed this group more than six years ago. It was actually April 12, 2019, is when we formed the group.
你好,查爾斯。謝謝你的提問。所以,再次提醒您,包括設備和服務在內的中國半導體收入占公司總收入的比例為 25% 左右。正如我們之前所討論的,28奈米的投資正在增加,我們的份額也更高。我認為對我們來說最重要的是我們在 ICAPS 擁有出色的創新管道。我們在六年多前成立了這個團體。實際上,我們是在 2019 年 4 月 12 日成立樂團的。
And we're driving significant innovations with new products that will expand our markets, new TAM for Applied Materials, new products that have significant cost innovations for cost-competitive areas of the market. So I feel really good about the pipeline that we have going forward, expanding our available market and our ability to compete.
我們正在透過新產品推動重大創新,以擴大我們的市場,為應用材料公司帶來新的 TAM,以及在成本競爭激烈的市場領域帶來重大成本創新的新產品。因此,我對我們未來的發展方向感到非常滿意,這將擴大我們的可用市場和競爭力。
And so I think in any of these different industries, the key thing is you have to run faster than competitors. And we have a great team in ICAPS. They've delivered great results. And I would say that I'm pretty positive about the pipeline that we have going forward and our position to drive growth in the ICAPS market into the future.
因此我認為,在任何不同的行業中,關鍵是你必須比競爭對手跑得更快。我們在 ICAPS 擁有一支優秀的團隊。他們取得了出色的成果。我想說的是,我對我們未來的發展方向以及我們推動 ICAPS 市場未來成長的地位非常樂觀。
Operator
Operator
Brian Chin, Stifel.
Brian Chin,Stifel。
Brian Chin - Analyst
Brian Chin - Analyst
Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for inviting us to ask a question. Gary and Brice, you clearly remain confident on your positioning for the upcoming key technology inflections in advanced logic. I think generally, there's some anticipation that 2-nanometer and 16-angstrom nodes can represent at least a few hundred thousand of wafer capacity expansion. I don't imagine your thoughts around significance has changed. However, given the current level of geoeconomic concerns, what's your view on pacing here and whether this could cause these investments perhaps to spread out over a longer horizon?
嗨,下午好。感謝您邀請我們提問。蓋瑞和布萊斯,你們顯然對即將到來的先進邏輯關鍵技術轉變的定位充滿信心。我認為總體而言,人們預計 2 奈米和 16 埃節點至少可以代表數十萬片晶圓的產能擴張。我不認為你對於重要性的想法改變了。然而,考慮到目前的地緣經濟擔憂程度,您對目前的步伐有何看法,這是否會導致這些投資分散到更長遠的範圍內?
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
I guess I'll start, Brian, and thanks for the question. The way we always think of the market is what's driving demand from a wafer perspective. And you look at PCs and smartphones, they've been growing at low single digits. So those are fairly stable markets. But when you look at data center, it's growing at 20%. And if you look at the -- if you carve out the wafers inside that, that are associated with accelerators, graphics, et cetera, so the AI component of data center, it's growing at 40%.
我想我應該開始了,布萊恩,謝謝你的提問。我們始終認為市場是從晶圓的角度推動需求的。看看個人電腦和智慧型手機,它們的成長率一直保持在個位數。所以這些都是相當穩定的市場。但當你看資料中心時,它正以 20% 的速度成長。如果你看一下——如果你雕刻出裡面的晶圓,它們與加速器、圖形等相關,那麼資料中心的人工智慧元件就會以 40% 的速度成長。
When we look at the leading-edge factories across the industry, they're at 100% utilization. And we all have thought about the gate-all-around technology, especially with backside power delivery, and thought, well, that's a significant improvement in power performance and density for the chip.
當我們觀察整個產業的領先工廠時,它們的利用率達到了 100%。我們都考慮過環柵技術,特別是背面供電技術,我們認為這對晶片的功率性能和密度來說是一個顯著的提升。
So it looks like a really good node. That technology looks like a strong node. So we think the trends from a demand perspective are very strong. And we're expecting a significant build-out of that technology. And I think if you look at recent announcements, either cloud service provider or even the largest foundry, you'll see -- I think you'll see a lot of energy around the road map.
所以它看起來是一個非常好的節點。該技術看起來像一個強大的節點。因此我們認為從需求角度來看趨勢非常強勁。我們期待該技術能夠取得顯著進展。我認為,如果你看一下最近的公告,無論是雲端服務供應商還是最大的代工廠,你都會看到——我認為你會看到路線圖周圍有很多能量。
Operator
Operator
Chris Caso, Wolfe Research.
克里斯‧卡索(Chris Caso),沃爾夫研究公司。
Chris Caso - Analyst
Chris Caso - Analyst
Thank you. Good evening, I guess the question we've gone through a lot with your -- how you're kind of shaping up this year and know that it's too early to start talking quantitatively on next year. But I wonder if you could kind of address a little bit about qualitatively next year, kind of where you're feeling better about growth for next year. What are the things that we should be looking for as we build out our WFE models into next year? And what's your level of conviction that next year is indeed a growth year?
謝謝。晚上好,我想我們已經討論過很多次您的問題了——您今年的狀況如何,並且知道現在開始量化地談論明年還為時過早。但我想知道您是否可以從品質上談談明年的情況,您對明年的成長有何看法。當我們在明年建立 WFE 模型時,我們應該尋找什麼?您對明年確實是增長年有多大信心?
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Chris, great question. So the way we think about it is we kind of set that anchor $1 trillion to $1.3 trillion in 2030 for the semi industry. And you can use a range of assumptions for what the equipment intensity might be associated with that. And that will give you a pretty significant growth in the equipment business over the next five years.
克里斯,好問題。因此,我們的想法是,到 2030 年,我們將半導體產業的支柱價值設定為 1 兆至 1.3 兆美元。您可以使用一系列假設來了解與此相關的設備強度。這將使您的設備業務在未來五年內實現相當顯著的成長。
And so probably just like you, when you model, we don't try to pick the uneven growth that one year might describe. We have -- we modeled pretty smooth growth from here to 2030, riding AI, riding the AI data center, all the key technologies that we're describing when we think about robotics and large language models and all those types of things. We think those are strong demand drivers.
因此,可能就像您一樣,當您建模時,我們不會嘗試選擇某一年可能描述的不均衡成長。我們模擬了從現在到 2030 年相當平穩的成長,利用人工智慧、人工智慧資料中心,以及我們在考慮機器人技術、大型語言模型和所有這類事物時所描述的所有關鍵技術。我們認為這些都是強勁的需求驅動因素。
So what we would say is those are enduring trends, and you can see the industry making the investments right now. You look at the cloud service providers, you look at the foundries, you look at us with the investment we're making in our lab here in Sunnyvale and our platform for innovation across the world. So I think those are the signals that you should look for is are the companies making those investments? And do we expect that trend to continue.
因此,我們要說的是,這些都是持久的趨勢,而且你可以看到行業現在正在進行投資。你看看雲端服務供應商,看看代工廠,看看我們在桑尼維爾實驗室和全球創新平台上的投資。所以我認為這些是您應該尋找的信號:公司是否正在進行這些投資?我們是否預期這種趨勢會持續下去?
I know people always want to know if after five years of growth for Applied, and we're growing at 7% so far this year, year-to-date, everybody wants to know if the next quarter after this one will be down or if next year will be down. We really don't model it that way. We just have kind of a smooth growth to that 2030, and we understand it will be uneven.
我知道人們總是想知道,在應用材料公司經歷了五年的成長之後,今年迄今為止我們的成長率為 7%,每個人都想知道下個季度或明年是否會下降。我們確實不會以那種方式建模。到 2030 年,我們的成長將比較平穩,但我們知道成長將不平衡。
Liz Morali Morali - President of Investor Relations
Liz Morali Morali - President of Investor Relations
I think we have time for one last question. Thanks.
我想我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein Research.
拉斯貢(Stacy Rasgon),伯恩斯坦研究公司。
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
I apologize. Thank you for fitting me in again. I appreciate it. Brice, I wanted to go back to your commentary just very quickly to make sure I have it on the segment growth for next quarter. I think you said that -- I thought these were year-over-year statements. Foundry and logic, you have leading-edge more than offsetting the ICAPS clients. It sounds like you think foundry-logic grows year-over-year.
我很抱歉。謝謝你再次給我安排。我很感激。布萊斯,我想快速回顧一下你的評論,以確保我了解下個季度的細分市場成長情況。我想你說過──我認為這些都是同比報表。鑄造和邏輯,您擁有的優勢遠遠超過抵消 ICAPS 客戶的優勢。聽起來您認為代工邏輯正在逐年成長。
You said DRAM stable. So DRAM kind of flattish year-over-year? And then you said NAND growing, I guess, year-over-year. But within the full guide, would that not imply that NAND is down sequentially? Just can you sort of confirm that I have that commentary on the segments correct?
您說的是 DRAM 穩定。那麼 DRAM 同比表現持平嗎?然後您說 NAND 正在逐年增長。但在完整指南中,這是否意味著 NAND 正在連續下降?您能否確認我對這些片段的評論是否正確?
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Yes. Stacy, I think you've got all those right. And it was a year-over-year commentary that we were providing. So NAND has ticked up. Leading logic is definitely accelerating. I think we've shared that mature logic is down, but we expected that after the two years of rapid growth. And so to the extent that that's a little lower, it's being filled in by leading and just sort of continued strength on the DRAM.
是的。史黛西,我認為你說的都對。這是我們提供的逐年評論。因此 NAND 價格已經上漲。主導邏輯肯定是加速的。我認為我們已經分享了成熟的邏輯正在下降,但我們預計經過兩年的快速成長後會發生這種情況。因此,如果這個數字稍微低一些,那麼它就會被 DRAM 的領先和持續強勢所填補。
And what's happened in the DRAM business, depending on which quarter you're looking at. The first couple of quarters last year, we had the shipments to China customers. This year, that business is still very strong. And it's all that leading-edge -- those leading-edge customers that are making those investments. So I think you have those puts and takes correct.
DRAM 業務發生了什麼,取決於你關注的是哪個季度。去年前幾季,我們就向中國客戶出貨了。今年,該業務仍然非常強勁。而這一切都是那些處於前沿的——那些處於前沿的客戶正在進行投資。所以我認為你的判斷是正確的。
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Got it. Okay. So based -- I'd have DRAM down -- I guess, DRAM down sequentially, NAND could be up sequentially and then foundry and logic will be up pretty decent sequentially if I tie up those year-over-year statements?
知道了。好的。所以基於 - 我認為 DRAM 會下降 - 我猜,如果我把這些同比報表聯繫起來,DRAM 會連續下降,NAND 可能會連續上升,然後代工廠和邏輯會連續上升相當可觀?
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Yes, that's fair.
是的,這很公平。
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Got it. Okay, thank you. I appreciate it.
知道了。好的,謝謝。我很感激。
Operator
Operator
This does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to Brice Hill for any further remarks.
今天節目的問答環節到此結束。我想將該計劃交還給布萊斯·希爾,以便他提出進一步的意見。
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Thank you. In summary, we're pleased to be operating at record levels. We're well equipped to navigate the dynamic conditions in the economic environment, and we're investing in significant industry collaborations to accelerate innovation, all of which position us to grow our business over the coming years.
謝謝。總而言之,我們很高興能夠達到創紀錄的營運水準。我們有能力應對經濟環境中的動態條件,我們正在投資重要的產業合作以加速創新,所有這些都使我們在未來幾年內實現業務成長。
Thank you. Liz, please close the call.
謝謝。莉茲,請掛斷電話。
Liz Morali Morali - President of Investor Relations
Liz Morali Morali - President of Investor Relations
Great. Thank you, Bryce, and thanks to everyone for joining the call today. I'd like to call your attention to two upcoming investor events. First, Gary will attend the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference on May 29. And then on June 4, Brice will be at the BofA Global Technology Conference.
偉大的。謝謝你,布萊斯,也謝謝大家今天參加電話會議。我想提請大家關注即將舉行的兩場投資者活動。首先,Gary 將於 5 月 29 日參加伯恩斯坦策略決策會議。6 月 4 日,布萊斯將出席美國銀行全球技術會議。
Lastly, a replay of today's call will be available on the Investor Relations website by 5:00 PM Pacific Time today. Thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.
最後,今天的電話會議重播將於今天太平洋時間下午 5:00 之前在投資者關係網站上提供。感謝您對應用材料的持續關注。
Operator
Operator
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day
女士們、先生們,感謝各位參加今天的會議。該計劃確實就此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。再會