應用材料 (AMAT) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials third quarter fiscal 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加應用材料公司 2025 財年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）

I would now like to turn the call over to Liz Morali, Vice President of Investor Relations. Liz, you may begin.

現在我想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Liz Morali。莉茲，你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us for today's call. With me today are Gary Dickerson, President and CEO; and Brice Hill, CFO. Before we continue, let me remind you that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including predictions, estimates, projections or other statements about future events. Actual results may differ materially from those mentioned in these forward-looking statements as a result of risks and uncertainties.

謝謝。下午好，感謝您參加今天的電話會議。今天與我一起的有總裁兼執行長 Gary Dickerson 和財務長布萊斯希爾 (Brice Hill)。在我們繼續之前，讓我提醒您，今天的討論包含聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述，包括對未來事件的預測、估計、預計或其他陳述。由於風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中提到的結果有重大差異。

Information concerning these risks and uncertainties is discussed in our most recent Form 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC. We do not intend to update any forward-looking statements. During today's call, we will also reference non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release and in our quarterly earnings materials which are available on our Investor Relations website at ir.appliedmaterials.com. I will now turn the call over to Gary.

我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 表格中討論了有關這些風險和不確定性的信息。我們不打算更新任何前瞻性陳述。在今天的電話會議中，我們也將參考非公認會計準則財務指標。GAAP 與非 GAAP 業績的對帳表可在今天的收益新聞稿和季度收益資料中找到，這些資料可在我們投資者關係網站 ir.appliedmaterials.com 上找到。現在我將電話會議交給 Gary。

Thanks, Liz. In our third fiscal quarter of 2025, Applied Materials delivered record performance fueled by strong broad-based demand for semiconductor systems and services. However, as you will see in our guidance, we expect revenue and earnings to be sequentially lower in our fourth quarter, primarily due to uncertainties in our China business. Even with this Q4 forecast, we remain on track to achieve a mid-single-digit growth rate in fiscal 2025, which will be our sixth consecutive year of revenue growth.

謝謝，莉茲。在 2025 財年第三季度，應用材料公司在半導體系統和服務強勁的廣泛需求的推動下取得了創紀錄的業績。然而，正如您在我們的指引中看到的，我們預計第四季度的收入和收益將環比下降，這主要是由於我們中國業務的不確定性。即使有這樣的第四季預測，我們仍有望在 2025 財年實現中等個位數的成長率，這將是我們連續第六年實現營收成長。

In my prepared remarks today, I'll give some additional color on our near-term outlook, provide an update on the longer-term secular industry growth drivers and describe Applied's leadership position at the major device inflections that enable our customers' road maps.

在我今天的準備好的發言中，我將對我們的近期前景進行一些補充說明，提供有關長期行業增長動力的最新信息，並描述應用材料公司在實現客戶路線圖的主要設備轉變方面的領導地位。

The dynamic macroeconomic and policy environment, including trade and tariffs, has wide-ranging implications for the semiconductor industry, increasing uncertainty and lowering visibility in the near term. For Applied's business, there are three main factors that mute our outlook for the quarter ahead. First is digestion of capacity in China; second is our large backlog of pending export license applications, where we have taken a conservative position and assumed none of these licenses will be issued in the next quarter; and third is non-linear demand from leading-edge customers which is primarily linked to market concentration and fab timing.

貿易和關稅等動態宏觀經濟和政策環境對半導體產業具有廣泛影響，增加了不確定性並降低了短期內的可見度。對於應用材料公司的業務而言，有三個主要因素影響了我們對未來季度的展望。首先是中國產能的消化；其次是我們積壓了大量待處理的出口許可證申請，我們對此持保守態度，並假設下個季度不會頒發任何許可證；第三是來自前沿客戶的非線性需求，這主要與市場集中度和晶圓廠時機有關。

None of these near-term considerations change our perspective on the longer-term opportunities for the industry and Applied Materials. Leadership in AI remains a major focus for both companies and countries, driving large investments in infrastructure and R&D.

這些短期考量都不會改變我們對該產業和應用材料長期機會的看法。人工智慧領域的領導力仍然是企業和國家關注的重點，推動了基礎設施和研發方面的大量投資。

Governments around the world, especially the United States government are taking major steps to incentivize companies to build advanced manufacturing capacity onshore. One example of this is Apple's American manufacturing program, which was announced last week. We are excited to be a partner in this initiative that is designed to strengthen the end-to-end silicon supply chain in the US.

世界各國政府，尤其是美國政府正在採取重大措施，激勵企業在國內建立先進的製造能力。蘋果上周宣布的美國製造計畫就是一個例子。我們很高興成為這項旨在加強美國端到端矽供應鏈的計畫的合作夥伴。

As part of this endeavor, we plan to invest more than $200 million in Arizona to establish a state-of-the-art facility for manufacturing specialized components for our equipment. This builds on the more than $400 million we have invested in our US manufacturing infrastructure over the past five years to provide the needed capacity and agility to support growing customer demand.

作為這項努力的一部分，我們計劃在亞利桑那州投資超過 2 億美元，建立一個最先進的工廠，用於製造我們設備的專用零件。這是基於我們過去五年來對美國製造基礎設施超過 4 億美元的投資，旨在提供所需的產能和靈活性，滿足不斷增長的客戶需求。

Globally, we are now tracking more than 100 new fabs or major fab expansion projects, an increase of about 10% in the past year. In addition to robust supply chains, deploying AI at large scale requires significant innovation at every level of the technology stack from models, software, and data center design to chip architectures and materials.

在全球範圍內，我們目前正在追蹤 100 多個新晶圓廠或大型晶圓廠擴建項目，比去年增加了約 10%。除了強大的供應鏈之外，大規模部署人工智慧還需要在技術堆疊的各個層面（從模型、軟體和資料中心設計到晶片架構和材料）進行重大創新。

AI's need for abundant, high-performance and energy-efficient computing is reshaping the semiconductor road map and changing the way chips are designed and manufactured. This next wave of AI semiconductor innovation will be concentrated around five key areas: Leading edge logic next-generation high-performance DRAM, high bandwidth memory or DRAM stacking, advanced packaging to connect logic and memory chips together, and innovations in power electronics to address energy consumption within the data center, and more efficient grid to data center power delivery.

人工智慧對豐富、高效能和節能運算的需求正在重塑半導體路線圖，並改變晶片的設計和製造方式。下一波人工智慧半導體創新將集中在五個關鍵領域：前沿邏輯下一代高效能 DRAM、高頻寬記憶體或 DRAM 堆疊、將邏輯和記憶體晶片連接在一起的先進封裝，以及電力電子創新以解決資料中心內的能耗問題，以及更高效的電網到資料中心的電力傳輸。

In each of these critical areas, major device architecture inflections are shifting value towards material science and materials engineering, growing Applied's addressable market and driving closer collaboration with customers. On top of this, these inflections create opportunities for us to grow faster than the underlying market. Based on our deep customer engagements, we have focused our investments in product portfolio on the most enabling applications, and we expect healthy market share gains as these new technologies ramp in volume production.

在每個關鍵領域，主要的設備架構變化正在將價值轉向材料科學和材料工程，擴大應用材料公司的潛在市場並推動與客戶的更緊密合作。除此之外，這些變化也為我們創造了比基礎市場更快成長的機會。基於我們與客戶的深度合作，我們將產品組合的投資重點放在最具潛力的應用上，隨著這些新技術的大量生產，我們預計市場份額將獲得健康的成長。

Let me walk you through some examples. In leading-edge foundry logic, the transition from FinFET to gate-all-around transistors with backside power delivery grows our revenue opportunity by 30% for the equivalent fab capacity. And we are on track to gain multiple points of market share when these nodes ramp in the second half of 2026 and 2027.

讓我來跟你講一些例子。在尖端代工邏輯領域，從 FinFET 到具有背面供電的環柵電晶體的轉變，使我們在同等晶圓廠產能下的收入機會增加 30%。當這些節點在 2026 年下半年和 2027 年加速發展時，我們預計將獲得多個市場份額。

In this past quarter, our strength in leading-edge foundry supported revenue of almost $1.2 billion for our metal deposition business. And we also secured our first wins and moly deposition for the most critical device performance applications.

在過去的一個季度，我們在尖端鑄造領域的實力為我們的金屬沉積業務帶來了近 12 億美元的收入。我們也為最關鍵的設備效能應用贏得了首批勝利和鉬沉積。

In DRAM, we also have strong market share, and we expect our revenue from leading-edge DRAM customers to be up around 50% in fiscal 2025. In the quarter, our strength in DRAM supported record results for our etch business which surpassed $1 billion of quarterly revenue for the first time.

在 DRAM 領域，我們也擁有強大的市場份額，我們預計 2025 財年來自領先 DRAM 客戶的營收將成長 50% 左右。本季度，我們在 DRAM 領域的實力支持了我們的蝕刻業務取得創紀錄的業績，該業務的季度收入首次超過 10 億美元。

In addition, we see customers adopting our new solutions to address the stringent needs of high-performance compute memory. We have recently secured new volume production positions at leading DRAM manufacturers for our next-generation gap fill system. Our most advanced chemical vapor deposition product as well as our new Pioneer dielectric patterning system.

此外，我們看到客戶採用我們的新解決方案來滿足高效能運算記憶體的嚴格需求。我們最近已獲得領先 DRAM 製造商的下一代間隙填充系統的新批量生產資格。我們最先進的化學氣相沉積產品以及我們新的先鋒電介質圖案系統。

Looking further ahead, when customers adopt vertical transistor or 4F-squared architectures, a transition we expect starting in 2027 and 2028, we see opportunities to win more than 5 points of incremental DRAM share. In advanced packaging, we have built a broad portfolio of solutions to enable both high-bandwidth memory and heterogeneous integration.

展望未來，當客戶採用垂直電晶體或 4F 平方架構時（我們預計這一轉變將從 2027 年和 2028 年開始），我們看到贏得超過 5 個百分點的增量 DRAM 份額的機會。在先進封裝領域，我們建立了廣泛的解決方案組合，以實現高頻寬記憶體和異質整合。

We have high share in the packaging market well above the company's overall wafer fab equipment share. We are well positioned for future architecture inflections, and our packaging business is on track to more than double to greater than $3 billion over the next few years.

我們在封裝市場的佔有率很高，遠高於公司整體晶圓廠設備的佔有率。我們已為未來的架構轉變做好了準備，我們的包裝業務預計在未來幾年內將成長一倍以上，達到 30 億美元以上。

In Power Electronics, we believe the market for data center power semiconductors could grow to $9 billion by the end of the decade. We are on track to grow our share of this market with highly differentiated solutions that position us well for the future.

在電力電子領域，我們相信到本世紀末資料中心電力半導體市場規模可能會成長到 90 億美元。我們正透過高度差異化的解決方案擴大我們的市場份額，為未來發展奠定良好的基礎。

As our customers race to bring these complex device architecture inflections to market, we are providing advanced service solutions that support them all the way from technology transfer into their pilot lines two, optimization of device performance, yield and cost in volume production.

隨著我們的客戶競相將這些複雜的設備架構推向市場，我們提供先進的服務解決方案，為他們提供全程支持，從技術轉移到試驗線，到優化批量生產中的設備性能、產量和成本。

On a year-over-year basis, our service business has now grown for 24 consecutive quarters. In addition, more than two-third of our service revenue comes from subscriptions, and we expect this percentage to further increase in the coming years.

與去年同期相比，我們的服務業務已連續24季成長。此外，我們超過三分之二的服務收入來自訂閱，我們預計這一比例在未來幾年將進一步增加。

In the global race for AI leadership, having first access to new technologies has incredible value. To accelerate time to market for disruptive architectures in logic, memory, and packaging, we are changing the way we work with our customers and partners to increase the development and commercialization speed of next-generation technologies. This high-velocity co-innovation strategy that we established with our leading customers is supported by Applied's global Epic platform which provides unique physical and digital infrastructure to accelerate AI chip architecture inflections and improve R&D spending efficiency.

在全球人工智慧領導地位的競爭中，率先獲得新技術具有不可思議的價值。為了加快邏輯、記憶體和封裝顛覆性架構的上市時間，我們正在改變與客戶和合作夥伴的合作方式，以提高下一代技術的開發和商業化速度。我們與主要客戶建立的這種高速共同創新策略得到了應用材料公司全球 Epic 平台的支持，該平台提供獨特的實體和數位基礎設施，以加速人工智慧晶片架構的變革並提高研發支出效率。

Our new flagship R&D facility, the Epic Center in Silicon Valley remains on track to begin operations in spring 2026. Before I hand it over to Brice, I'll briefly summarize. Applied delivered record performance in our third fiscal quarter, and we remain on track for a sixth consecutive year of growth in fiscal 2025.

我們新的旗艦研發機構—位於矽谷的 Epic Center 預計將於 2026 年春季開始營運。在將其交給 Brice 之前，我將進行簡要總結。應用材料公司在第三財季取得了創紀錄的業績，並且預計在 2025 財年連續第六年實現成長。

We expect revenues and earnings to be sequentially lower in our fourth quarter, primarily due to uncertainties in our China business. Our long-term growth thesis for the semiconductor industry in Applied Materials remains unchanged as companies and countries compete to win the race for AI leadership, and Applied is best positioned at the major device inflections that enable the AI road map. These inflections will grow our total market opportunity and support market share gains in the years to come. Now I'll turn the call over to Brice.

我們預計第四季度的營收和收益將環比下降，主要原因是我們中國業務的不確定性。隨著各公司和國家競相贏得人工智慧領導地位，我們對應用材料公司半導體產業的長期成長論點保持不變，而應用材料公司在實現人工智慧路線圖的主要設備拐點方面佔據最佳位置。這些變化將增加我們的整體市場機會並支持未來幾年的市佔率成長。現在我將把電話轉給布萊斯。

Thank you, Gary, and thank you to everyone joining us for today's call. In fiscal Q3, we delivered a record quarter with growth across all three segments; and with a robust gross margin of nearly 49%, we also achieved record non-GAAP earnings per share. In semiconductor systems, the overall demand environment for equipment was largely in line with our expectations with broad-based customer investments across foundry, logic, DRAM, and NAND.

謝謝你，加里，也謝謝參加今天電話會議的所有人。在第三財季，我們三個部門都實現了創紀錄的成長；憑藉近 49% 的強勁毛利率，我們也實現了創紀錄的非 GAAP 每股盈餘。在半導體系統中，裝置的整體需求環境基本上符合我們的預期，客戶對代工、邏輯、DRAM 和 NAND 進行了廣泛的投資。

In Applied Global Services, we achieved record core services revenue with positive trends across our key performance indicators. And in display, we recorded our second consecutive quarter of revenue growth as the industry invests in equipment to support the further adoption of OLED technology and consumer devices.

在應用全球服務領域，我們的核心服務收入創下了歷史新高，關鍵績效指標呈現正向趨勢。在顯示器領域，隨著產業對設備進行投資以支援 OLED 技術和消費設備的進一步應用，我們連續第二個季度實現了收入成長。

Let me now turn to the financial details for Q3. Total net revenue was approximately $7.3 billion, up 8% year-over-year and about $100 million above the midpoint of our guidance range. Non-GAAP gross margin was 48.9%, up 150 basis points year-over-year. The strong margin in Q3 was driven by the combination of product and segment mix and pricing as we work to offset tariff-related headwinds.

現在讓我來介紹一下第三季的財務細節。總淨收入約為 73 億美元，年增 8%，比我們的指導範圍中點高出約 1 億美元。非公認會計準則毛利率為48.9%，較去年成長150個基點。第三季的強勁利潤率是由產品和細分市場組合以及定價的結合所推動的，因為我們努力抵消與關稅相關的不利因素。

Non-GAAP operating expenses were $1.3 billion, down slightly as a percentage of revenue as we optimized our G&A spending to help offset investments in R&D to support leading-edge technology inflections for our customers' road maps. Non-GAAP earnings per share was a record $2.48, up 17% year-over-year, given the revenue growth, better profitability, and share repurchases.

非公認會計準則營運費用為 13 億美元，佔收入的百分比略有下降，因為我們優化了 G&A 支出，以幫助抵消研發投資，以支援客戶路線圖的前沿技術變化。由於收入成長、獲利能力提高和股票回購，非公認會計準則每股收益達到創紀錄的 2.48 美元，較去年同期成長 17%。

Moving to the segments, semiconductor Systems revenue was $5.43 billion for Q3, up 10% year-over-year with growth in foundry logic driven by customer investments to support the ramp of gate all-around nodes, partially offset by decreases in the ICAP nodes, which we define as those greater than 7 nanometers.

轉向各個部門，第三季半導體系統收入為 54.3 億美元，同比增長 10%，其中代工邏輯的增長受到客戶投資的推動，以支持全柵極節點的提升，但 ICAP 節點（我們將其定義為大於 7 奈米的節點）的減少部分抵消了這一增長。

Compared to our expectations at our last earnings call, we saw slightly less than anticipated growth in leading-edge spending due to a slower fab build-out schedule and stronger-than-expected spending in ICAPs. DRAM was better than expected, up year-over-year as customers focused on investments for AI-enabling advanced DRAM.

與上次收益電話會議上的預期相比，由於晶圓廠建設進度較慢以及 ICAP 支出強於預期，我們看到前沿支出的成長略低於預期。由於客戶專注於對支援人工智慧的先進 DRAM 的投資，DRAM 的表現優於預期，比去年同期成長。

We saw a significant increase in NAND primarily driven by sales to multinational customers in China. Non-GAAP operating margin of 36.4% was up 140 basis points year-over-year.

我們看到 NAND 的大幅成長，主要得益於對中國跨國客戶的銷售。非公認會計準則營業利益率為 36.4%，較去年同期成長 140 個基點。

Moving to Applied Global Services, AGS delivered revenue of $1.6 billion in Q3, up 1% year-over-year, with growth in core services and a decline in 200-millimeter equipment sales. Core services grew approximately 10% year-over-year, bolstered by healthy utilization rates in leading-edge foundry logic and high-bandwidth memory along with expansion of our tools under comprehensive agreements which represent our most advanced service levels. Non-GAAP operating margin of 27.8% was down 180 basis points year-over-year, primarily due to customer mix.

轉向應用全球服務部，AGS 第三季營收為 16 億美元，年增 1%，核心服務有所成長，但 200 毫米設備銷售額有所下降。核心服務年增約 10%，這得益於尖端代工邏輯和高頻寬記憶體的健康利用率，以及代表我們最先進服務水準的綜合協議下工具的擴展。非公認會計準則營業利益率為 27.8%，較去年同期下降 180 個基點，主要原因是顧客結構。

Lastly, our display business delivered revenue of $263 million with non-GAAP operating margin of 23.6%. Moving to the balance sheet and cash flows. We ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $5.4 billion and debt of $6.3 billion and generated our second highest level of cash from operations in company history at approximately $2.6 billion or 36% of revenue.

最後，我們的顯示器業務實現了 2.63 億美元的收入，非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 23.6%。轉到資產負債表和現金流量。本季結束時，我們的現金和現金等價物為 54 億美元，債務為 63 億美元，並產生了公司歷史上第二高的經營現金水平，約為 26 億美元，佔收入的 36%。

Capital expenditures were $584 million, including significant investments in the United States, driven by the build-out of Applied Materials equipment and process innovation and commercialization Center or EPIC, which will be the largest and most advanced facility of its type globally.

資本支出為 5.84 億美元，其中包括在美國進行的大量投資，用於建設應用材料設備和工藝創新及商業化中心（EPIC），該中心將成為全球同類設施中規模最大、最先進的設施。

Free cash flow for Q3 was approximately $2 billion. We distributed approximately $1.4 billion to shareholders in the quarter with dividends paid of $368 million in share repurchases of approximately $1 billion. As of the end of the quarter, approximately $14.8 billion remains available to us on our share repurchase authorization.

第三季的自由現金流約為 20 億美元。本季我們向股東分配了約 14 億美元，其中支付了 3.68 億美元的股息，回購了約 10 億美元的股票。截至本季末，我們仍可根據股票回購授權使用約 148 億美元。

Turning to our outlook. As Gary mentioned, there are a couple of key factors contributing to our sequentially lower Q4 outlook. First, our customers in China are moderating spending following several periods of increased investments in equipment, and we expect China as a percentage of our revenue in Q4 to decrease to approximately 29%, including display.

轉向我們的展望。正如加里所提到的，有幾個關鍵因素導致我們對第四季的預期連續下調。首先，我們的中國客戶在經歷了幾期增加設備投資之後，正在減少支出，我們預計第四季度中國業務將占我們收入的比例將下降至約 29%，其中包括顯示器業務。

This assumes that we do not receive any approvals of our pending export license applications. Second, we expect demand for meeting edge customers to be down given the nonlinear pattern that Gary talked about earlier, resulting from market concentration and fab timing. As a result, we are seeing customers take longer to commit to orders, leading to a shorter visibility window.

這假設我們沒有收到任何待決出口許可證申請的批准。其次，考慮到 Gary 先前提到的非線性模式，我們預期滿足邊緣客戶的需求將會下降，這是由於市場集中度和晶圓廠時機所造成的。結果，我們發現客戶需要更長的時間來下訂單，導致可見視窗更短。

With these shifts in mind for fiscal Q4, a we expect total revenue of $6.7 billion, plus or minus $500 million, representing a 4.9% decrease year-over-year at the midpoint and non-GAAP EPS of $2.11, plus or minus $0.20, representing a 9% decrease year-over-year at the midpoint.

考慮到第四財季的這些變化，我們預計總營收為 67 億美元，上下浮動 5 億美元，中間值較去年同期下降 4.9%，非 GAAP 每股收益為 2.11 美元，上下浮動 0.20 美元，中間值較去年同期下降 9%。

We expect semiconductor systems revenue of approximately $4.7 billion, down approximately 9% year-over-year and AGS revenue of approximately $1.6 billion, down 2% year-over-year, with growth in core services and a decline in sales of 200-millimeter equipment.

我們預計半導體系統營收約為 47 億美元，年減約 9%，AGS 收入約為 16 億美元，年減 2%，核心服務收入將成長，而 200 毫米設備銷售額將下降。

In display, we expect revenue of approximately $350 million, a significant increase year-over-year, driven by the expansion of OLED screens in consumer devices. This does not yet include revenue from our new MAX OLED system, which we announced last year and which represents a dramatically different manufacturing approach to mass producing superior OLED displays.

在顯示器方面，我們預計營收約為 3.5 億美元，年比大幅成長，這得益於消費設備中 OLED 螢幕的擴展。這還不包括我們去年發布的新型 MAX OLED 系統的收入，該系統代表了大規模生產優質 OLED 顯示器的一種截然不同的製造方法。

Lastly, given the lower expected build volumes in our projected business mix in Q4, we expect non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 48.1% and non-GAAP operating expenses of approximately $1.31 billion, and we are modeling a tax rate of 12.6%.

最後，鑑於我們預計第四季度業務組合中的預期建設量較低，我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率約為 48.1%，非 GAAP 營運費用約為 13.1 億美元，我們模擬的稅率為 12.6%。

In closing, we are leveraging our robust supply chain, global manufacturing footprint, leading technology and deep customer relationships to navigate and adapt to the near-term uncertainties. Our long-term growth thesis remains intact, and we remain laser-focused on positioning our investments and portfolio to focus on the most enabling and critical applications for our customers. Thank you for listening, and we are now ready to begin the Q&A session. Liz?

最後，我們將利用強大的供應鏈、全球製造足跡、領先的技術和深厚的客戶關係來應對和適應近期的不確定性。我們的長期成長論點保持不變，我們仍然專注於定位我們的投資和產品組合，專注於為客戶提供最有力和最關鍵的應用。感謝您的聆聽，我們現在準備開始問答環節。莉茲？

(Operator Instructions) Jim Schneider, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）高盛的吉姆施耐德。

Yes, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if you could maybe talk to the incremental sources of weakness in the outlook, typically in China?

是的，下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。我想知道您是否可以談談前景中逐漸顯現的疲軟因素，特別是中國？

Do you see the decrease in the visibility there being extended well into 2026, or do you think that is more of a short-term thing? And then secondly, on the leading-edge logic weakness, do you have any sense of whether you would take that to cover in the next couple quarters or is that similarly lower visibility into next year? Thank you.

您是否認為能見度的下降會延續到 2026 年，還是您認為這只是短期現象？其次，關於前沿邏輯弱點，您是否知道是否會在接下來的幾個季度內解決這個問題，或者這是否會同樣降低明年的可見度？謝謝。

Hello Jim, thanks for the question. So on the outlook, two factors as you suggest. One is the lower China, and we've foreshadowed this over the last year. We had very large shipments into China in 2023 and 2024. And we expected lower business in 2025.

你好，吉姆，謝謝你的提問。因此，就前景而言，正如您所說，有兩個因素。一個是中國下游地區，我們去年已經預告了這一點。2023 年和 2024 年，我們向中國出口了大量貨物。我們預計 2025 年的業務將會下降。

We actually expect this to continue for several more quarters as we look forward. It's hard to give a specific guide, as those numbers have changed over time, but with such a large build in China in those 2023 and 2024, we call it digestion. It's not unexpected that we would have lower business, especially given the restrictions in our Q4 guide, much like we experienced in Q2, if you recall.

事實上，我們預計這種情況還將持續數個季度。很難給出具體的指導，因為這些數字隨著時間的推移而發生了變化，但考慮到中國在 2023 年和 2024 年的大規模建設，我們稱之為消化。我們的業務下滑並不意外，尤其是考慮到我們第四季度指南中的限制，就像我們在第二季度經歷的那樣，如果你還記得的話。

And then turning to leading-edge logic. Here this was different than our expectations. We have underlying demand that we think is very strong. You've got 100% utilization on the leading edge. You've got reportedly more design wins. You've got CapEx going up at cloud service providers.

然後轉向前沿邏輯。這與我們的預期不同。我們認為潛在需求非常強勁。您的前沿利用率已達到 100%。據報道，您贏得了更多的設計勝利。雲端服務提供者的資本支出正在上升。

You've got a lot of pull from AI-related technologies, especially on the leading edge in DRAM, in HBM also. And so we expected and modeled a relatively linear ramp that would accelerate through 2025 and into 2026, and we're not seeing that in the order pattern for Q4.

您從 AI 相關技術中獲得了許多啟發，特別是在 DRAM 和 HBM 領域的前沿技術。因此，我們預計並模擬了一個相對線性的成長趨勢，將在 2025 年至 2026 年加速，但我們在第四季度的訂單模式中並沒有看到這種情況。

And so at this point it's just uneven. We attribute some companies have been waiting longer to make capital commits in this environment that we're all going through with tariffs and trade and other uncertainties. And also with the concentration on leading-edge customer concentration, it's a little bit harder to achieve an even ramp.

所以從這一點來看，情況並不平衡。我們認為，在我們都經歷關稅、貿易和其他不確定因素的環境下，一些公司已經等待更長時間才做出資本承諾。而且由於集中於前沿客戶，要實現平穩成長會有些困難。

In past years you have multiple customers to try to achieve a level load in your factories. Now with one customer being larger than the other customers, it's more attached to their ramp and their loadings. So that's a factor in the unevenness of the ramp going forward.

在過去的幾年中，您有多個客戶嘗試在您的工廠中實現平衡負荷。現在，由於一個客戶比其他客戶規模更大，因此它與他們的坡道和負載的關係更為密切。所以這是導致未來坡道不平整的一個因素。

But I'll just say that we're not changing our expectations. We expect gate-all-around nodes to be very large. We think it'll grow to be more than 300,000 wafer starts of capacity per month as that ramps, and it's just going to be a little bit uneven going forward.

但我只想說，我們不會改變我們的期望。我們預計環繞柵極節點會非常大。我們認為，隨著產量的增加，其每月晶圓產能將成長至 30 萬片以上，只是未來的發展會有些不平衡。

And as far as our visibility into following quarters, we're working on that. I think investors should know we're fair, we always have high confidence in the quarter that we guide. In the out quarters they're typically not completely scheduled, and so we're working on that for the out quarters. And that's one of the reasons why we don't guide the out quarters. So I'll have to take a rain check on answering exactly when we'll know the shape of the ramp, but we're confident that we'll ramp on leading edge going forward.

至於我們對接下來幾季的預見性，我們正在努力實現這一目標。我認為投資者應該知道我們是公平的，我們始終對我們指導的季度充滿信心。在外部季度中，它們通常沒有完全安排好，因此我們正在為外部季度做出努力。這就是我們不指導外部部門的原因之一。因此，我必須等待片刻才能確切知道坡道的形狀，但我們有信心在未來取得領先優勢。

Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein Research.

拉斯貢（Stacy Rasgon），伯恩斯坦研究公司。

Hi guys, thanks for taking my question. China 35% of the revenue in the current quarter I didn't get the impression last quarter that you expected China to be that strong. I think it was 25% the quarter before.

大家好，感謝你們回答我的問題。中國佔本季營收的 35% 上個季度我並沒有感覺到您預期中國會如此強勁。我認為上一季是 25%。

So I guess the question is, was China significantly stronger than you expected? And if that's the case, it feels like the non-China business feels weaker than you were sort of alluding to in your comments just because the overall numbers weren't that far off of where you had guided. Just can you give me a little more color on what your expectations had been for China relative to where it came in the quarter relative to the rest of the business?

所以我想問題是，中國是否比你預期的強大得多？如果情況確實如此，那麼感覺中國以外的業務比您在評論中暗示的要弱，因為總體數字與您指導的數字相差不遠。您能否更詳細地介紹一下您對中國市場的預期，以及本季中國市場相對於其他業務的表現？

Yeah, absolutely. Thanks, Stacy. I think the quarter played out just pretty much exactly as we expected. The mix across, and I don't know if we gave the 35% number exactly or not, but it's certainly, I think we -- okay, thanks. I think we indicated that it was growing. And yes, from our expectation, you don't know until the end what the percentage will be, but we expected it to be higher.

是的，絕對是如此。謝謝，史黛西。我認為本季的進展與我們預期的完全一致。我不知道我們是否給出了準確的 35% 這個數字，但我認為我們肯定是 - 好的，謝謝。我認為我們已經表明它正在增長。是的，根據我們的預期，直到最後你才知道這個百分比是多少，但我們預期它會更高。

And yes, no real change in the flow from that perspective during the quarter. The only thing that I highlighted in the script was, there was a little bit less activity on leading edge in the quarter, which we highlighted. So we had said that we expected acceleration through the year. We expected nearly $5 billion of gate-all-around related purchases in 2025. And now we're seeing that be lower, probably just over $4.5 billion.

是的，從這個角度來看，本季的流量並沒有真正的變化。我在腳本中強調的唯一一件事是，本季前沿的活動稍微少了一點，我們強調了這一點。所以我們說過我們預計今年會加速發展。我們預計 2025 年環繞柵極相關產品的採購額將接近 50 億美元。而現在我們看到這個數字有所下降，可能只略高於 45 億美元。

So 80% growth instead of 100% growth. Those are really the dynamics. So the change for us -- even in our outlook, we expected China to be lower in Q4. The change for us is just the linearity of the leading edge.

因此增長 80% 而不是 100%。這些確實都是動態的。因此，對我們來說，即使在我們的展望中，我們也預計中國第四季的出口將會下降。對我們來說，變化只是前沿的線性。

Got it. I mean, if I dig into that a little bit, so if you're guiding China to like 29% of revenue, versus $35 million. So that's, I don't know, it's a $600 million decline. Displays $100 million give or take stronger. So it's something like a $500 million decline in China equipment.

知道了。我的意思是，如果我深入研究一下，如果你引導中國獲得 29% 的收入，而不是 3500 萬美元。所以，我不知道，這是一個 6 億美元的下降。顯示約 1 億美元的增減幅度。因此，這相當於中國設備出口下降了 5 億美元。

And then the total equipment guide is down $700 million-plus. So that incremental $200 million to $250 million, is that like the lower leading edge? Is it all -- so it's all in like the foundry logic leading? How do I think about like the components of that guide?

總設備指導價下降了 7 億多美元。那麼，增量的 2 億美元到 2.5 億美元，是否就像是較低的前沿？這一切──都是由代工邏輯主導的嗎？我如何看待指南的組成部分？

I think you got your equation right. So approximately $500 million China, approximately $500 million leading edge, which I alluded to with the $4.5 billion instead of $5 billion. And then there's some upsides in rest-of-world ICAPS that explain the difference that you're looking for.

我認為你的等式是正確的。因此，中國市場約有 5 億美元，前沿市場約 5 億美元，我指的是 45 億美元，而不是 50 億美元。然後，世界其他地區的 ICAPS 也存在一些優勢，可以解釋您所尋找的差異。

Do you think of the non-China leading edge is down another $500 million sequentially? That's what you're saying? Or that was an annual number?

您是否認為非中國市場的領先優勢會連續下降 5 億美元？你是這個意思嗎？或者這是一個年度數字？

So reconciling the down of $700 million, I would say it's $500 million China, $500 million leading edge, and then a plus factor for rest-of-world ICAPS.

因此，考慮到 7 億美元的下降，我會說這是 5 億美元來自中國，5 億美元來自領先優勢，然後是世界其他地區 ICAPS 的加分因素。

Okay. Where is that coming from, though?

好的。但這是從哪裡來的呢？

Well, we're not going to be specific. It would be too indicative of a particular customer, but it's not China.

嗯，我們不會具體說明。這太明顯是針對某個特定客戶，但這個客戶不是中國。

Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.

Vivek Arya 的美國銀行證券。

Thanks for taking my question. Gary, the question is for you. So both kind of near and medium term. So if you look at Q1, if these trends persist, should we be assuming any sequential growth into Q1, right, based on what we know? I know you only guide one quarter at a time.

感謝您回答我的問題。加里，這個問題是問你的。因此，既有短期的，也有中期的。因此，如果您看一下第一季度，如果這些趨勢持續下去，根據我們所知道的情況，我們是否應該假設第一季會持續成長？我知道你每次只指導一個季度。

And then if I kind of zoom out, same question for fiscal 2026, that is China, right, may not grow. And if your one kind of leading-edge customer in the US is going through its issues, do you think memory growth is enough, DRAM growth is enough for Applied to grow overall as a company?

然後，如果我把眼光放遠一點，2026 財年的問題也是一樣的，那就是中國可能不會成長。如果您在美國的某一類前沿客戶正在經歷其問題，您是否認為記憶體成長足夠，DRAM 成長足以讓應用程式材料公司實現整體成長？

If you could just give us the contours of how you're thinking about Q1 and fiscal 2026, even if it is not in terms of absolute dollars. But just the shape and direction, I think would be extremely helpful to investors on this call. Thank you.

如果您能簡單介紹一下您對第一季和 2026 財年的看法，即使不是以絕對美元計算。但我認為，就形式和方向而言，這次電話會議對投資者來說非常有幫助。謝謝。

Vivek, I'll probably start. On the guide for Q1, as I highlighted earlier, we're sharing that there's more uncertainty and a little bit lower visibility in the current environment. Customers are later in making their commits, and so we're definitely not able yet to give any specific color for our Q1.

維韋克，我可能會開始。關於第一季的指南，正如我之前強調的那樣，我們認為當前環境中存在更多不確定性，可見性較低。客戶稍後會做出承諾，因此我們還不能為我們的 Q1 提供任何具體的資訊。

But having said that, as you're sort of alluding to, the trends underneath for strong DRAM and strong leading logic we think are continuing. We're just going to have to wait for more time to go by to understand the linearity of demand, specifically on the leading edge.

但話雖如此，正如您所暗示的那樣，我們認為強大的 DRAM 和強大的領先邏輯的趨勢將會持續下去。我們只需要等待更多的時間來了解需求的線性，特別是在前沿。

On DRAM, we almost -- we'll either have a record or we'll almost have a record this year. And what that is, is you recall the prior year there was a couple of quarters of shipments to China customers. You don't have that this year, so you've got the leading-edge memory players all growing nearly 50%, as Gary said in the script.

對於 DRAM，我們幾乎——我們今年要么會創下紀錄，要么幾乎會創下紀錄。您還記得嗎，去年有幾季向中國客戶出貨。今年你沒有這種情況，所以你擁有的尖端內存播放器都增長了近 50%，正如加里在腳本中所說的那樣。

So DRAM is very strong. Leading logic, I sort of clicked off all the factors that we look at. It's a great process for Gate-All-Around. It's got significant performance advantages. It's got design momentum. You have 100% utilization on leading-edge processes. You've got cloud CapEx going up from cloud CapEx or the cloud service providers.

所以 DRAM 非常強大。主導邏輯，我大致勾選了我們要考慮的所有因素。對於 Gate-All-Around 來說，這是一個很棒的流程。它具有顯著的性能優勢。它具有設計動力。您對前沿工藝的利用率達到 100%。您的雲端資本支出已從雲端資本支出或雲端服務供應商上升。

So just a lot of momentum in that space. And we think that's plenty of pull on the leading edge. And we're just going to have to work on the linearity as this build-out occurs over the next couple of years.

因此，該領域的發展勢頭強勁。我們認為這對前沿領域具有很大的吸引力。在接下來的幾年裡，隨著這項建設的進行，我們只需要致力於線性工作。

So on your specific question, will memory growth be strong enough and will leading edge be strong enough to offset a China year that will be lower than 2024? We don't know exactly what it'll be, but it'll be lower than 2024. That's going to be the question.

因此，關於您的具體問題，記憶體成長是否足夠強勁，前沿技術是否足夠強大，以抵消中國年低於 2024 年的影響？我們不知道具體數字是多少，但肯定低於 2024 年。這就是我們要問的問題。

It was much like 2025. We said, if we have growth, which we have, it would be a strength of leading edge and DRAM that offset any slowness in China. And that's going to be the same question for 2026, and we're just going to have to see how it works forward.

這很像 2025 年。我們說過，如果我們實現了成長，那麼領先的優勢和 DRAM 可以抵消中國的任何放緩。2026 年我們仍將面臨同樣的問題，我們只需要觀察它未來的發展。

C.J. Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.

C.J. Muse，領唱費茲傑拉。

Yeah, good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. I guess I was hoping to probe the different areas of weakness that you cited for October. So for the first part with China. It sounds like for many of your peers that the concentration is just six large players who don't require licenses.

是的，下午好。感謝您回答這個問題。我想我希望能探究您所提到的十月份的不同薄弱領域。第一部分是關於中國的。聽起來，對許多同行來說，重點只是六家不需要許可證的大型企業。

So I'm curious why your shipments could be so robust through July, but, now in October licenses, are now the challenge. And then from a foundry perspective, can you be more specific? Is that just timing of clean room space availability? What's causing, the lack of kind of visibility there, particularly given that utilization like you cited is that running 100%?

所以我很好奇為什麼你們的出貨量在七月如此強勁，但是現在十月份的許可證卻成了挑戰。那麼從代工廠的角度來看，您能更具體一點嗎？這僅僅是無塵室空間可用時間嗎？是什麼原因導致缺乏可見性，特別是考慮到您提到的利用率是 100%？

And then on the HBM side, can you clarify, what you're seeing there? Is that a function of, waiting on contract pricing for 2026 before signing for tools or something else? Thanks so much.

然後在 HBM 方面，您能澄清一下您在那裡看到了什麼嗎？這是在簽署工具或其他東西之前等待 2026 年合約定價的功能嗎？非常感謝。

Okay, CJ, thank you. So first on China, I think that I, as I said earlier, I think China played out as expected. So, good question on why is there more business in Q3 than Q4. I think, just the customers, there may have been some strategic placement of having more deliveries in Q3. There was certainly different uncertainties resolving at different speeds as we went through the first half of the year.

好的，CJ，謝謝你。首先關於中國，我認為，正如我之前所說，中國的表現符合預期。那麼，好問題來了，為什麼第三季的業務量比第四季多？我認為，對於客戶而言，可能已經採取了一些策略性措施，以便在第三季增加交付量。在我們度過上半年時，肯定存在著不同的不確定性，而這些不確定性以不同的速度解決。

So I think the delivery schedule for us or the way it played out on the business side was pretty much as expected. And so I would say Q4 is just back to the level that we have been expecting all year long, just something lower than what we saw in 2024.

所以我認為我們的交貨時間表或業務方面的進展與預期基本一致。因此我想說，第四季度已經回到了我們全年預期的水平，只是比 2024 年的水平略低。

And as I alluded to, we expect that to last a little bit longer, several quarters longer, where the business will be less than 2024. But just so investors understand, there's new fabs, there's lots of new investment in China. It's just not quite at that 2024 rate.

正如我所提到的，我們預計這種情況會持續更長時間，幾個季度，到 2024 年業務量將減少。但投資人要明白，中國有新的晶圓廠，有大量的新投資。只是還沒達到 2024 年的水準。

And then when we shift to leading logic, of course we model. All of the factories of our customers, the amount of capacity they're putting in, the applications that we have, and I'll just say that our model had a more linear assumption than reality. So not significant -- no significant changes to point to. And customer availability, I think, there were some.

然後，當我們轉向主導邏輯時，我們當然會進行建模。我們客戶的所有工廠、他們投入的產能、我們擁有的應用程序，我只想說，我們的模型的假設比現實更線性。所以這並不重要——沒有值得指出的重大變化。我認為，客戶可用性是有一些的。

But it's nothing like that. It's just that we assumed a more linear ramp. And we're not seeing that, so we'll work with the customers on that as we look at the coming quarters.

但事實並非如此。只是我們假設了一個更線性的斜坡。我們還沒有看到這種情況，因此我們將在未來幾個季度與客戶一起解決這個問題。

And then on the contract -- yeah go ahead.

然後談合約——是的，繼續吧。

Can I just clarify in China. You talked about waiting on licenses could you speak to that?

我可以在中國澄清一下嗎？您談到了等待許可證，您能談談這個嗎？

Yeah, we do have a backlog of licenses, and we're just highlighting. We did not include any revenue in our outlook from that backlog. So it's been growing over the past quarters, and it's getting to be a significant backlog in terms of the number of licenses. So I know the government is aware of that, but we're just being conservative and not including any of that in the outlook.

是的，我們確實有一些許可證積壓，我們只是強調一下。我們的展望中並未包括該積壓訂單產生的任何收入。因此，在過去的幾個季度中，它一直在增長，並且就許可證數量而言，它已經積壓了大量的許可證。所以我知道政府意識到了這一點，但我們只是採取保守態度，並沒有將其中任何內容納入展望中。

And so, back to—just to be clear—the customers we're serving. And the outlook that we have, we are not waiting on licenses for that outlook. We're comfortable with what we've guided, and there's no contingency there.

所以，為了清楚起見，讓我們回到我們所服務的客戶。對於我們所擁有的前景，我們不會等待許可證。我們對所指導的內容感到滿意，並且不存在任何意外情況。

Melissa Weathers, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的梅莉莎‧韋瑟斯。

Hi there, I also wanted to ask on the leading edge, but more specifically on the second tier players, there's obviously a higher degree of uncertainty around their CapEx outlooks, for like the Intels and Samsungs of the world.

你好，我也想問前沿領域，但更具體地說是二線企業，他們的資本支出前景顯然存在更高的不確定性，例如英特爾和三星這樣的企業。

So can you help us understand what are you baking into your own planning and what assumptions are you making on what their spending outlook -- where their spending outlet could shake out as it relates to your own outlook?

那麼，您能否幫助我們了解您在自己的計劃中考慮了哪些因素，以及您對他們的支出前景做出了哪些假設——與您自己的前景相比，他們的支出管道可能會發生哪些變化？

Yeah, thanks, Melissa. When we take this question, we don't talk about specific customers. But when we take this question, what we do highlight is we're up to date with our customers and their forecasts. So we typically update, the medium term forecast with our customers twice a quarter. And that'll be the case for those customers.

是的，謝謝，梅麗莎。當我們回答這個問題時，我們不會談論具體的客戶。但是當我們回答這個問題時，我們確實強調的是，我們了解我們的客戶及其預測。因此，我們通常每季兩次向客戶更新中期預測。對於那些顧客來說，情況確實如此。

And we highlighted that we do have more concentration in our demand on leading edge than we've experienced before. And that's probably the best we can say, but I think, we definitely understand where they are in their plans today.

我們強調，我們對尖端技術的需求比以前更集中。這或許是我們能說的最好的話了，但我認為，我們肯定了解他們今天的計畫。

Thank you. And our next question comes to the line of Harlan sir from JP Morgan, your question please?

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan 先生，請問您的問題是什麼？

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Advanced packaging, a lot of good stuff happening there. It was a $1.7 billion dollar business for the team last fiscal year. I think it's grown at about a 35%, 40% CAGR over the prior four years.

嗨，下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。先進的封裝，那裡發生了很多好事。上個財年，這對該球隊來說是一筆價值 17 億美元的業務。我認為它在過去四年中的複合年增長率約為 35% 至 40%。

Lots of inflections, right? HBM3 to HBM4, 2.5D to 3.5D packaging, can the team just threw us up like what type of growth are you expecting this fiscal year in advanced packaging? And is this segment also being impacted by the weaker advanced logic spending dynamics that you're seeing in the second half?

有很多語調變化，對吧？HBM3 到 HBM4、2.5D 到 3.5D 封裝，團隊能否告訴我們，您預計本財年先進封裝領域將會出現什麼樣的成長？這個部門是否也受到下半年先進邏輯支出動態減弱的影響？

Thanks, Harlan. I'll start, and I think Gary will add on here. On the advanced packaging, we're seeing about a steady pace relative to last year, minus the burst capacity-- initial burst capacity, we saw in HBM at the end of last year. So I'd say similar to last year from a pacing perspective for that business. And we don't see any change related to the leading-edge schedules and the purchasing behaviors there, so -- and Gary, on the positioning.

謝謝，哈蘭。我先開始，我想加里也會在這裡補充。在先進封裝方面，我們看到相對於去年而言的穩定步伐，減去突發容量 - 初始突發容量，我們在去年年底在 HBM 中看到了這一點。因此，我認為從該業務的節奏角度來看與去年類似。我們沒有看到與前沿計劃和購買行為相關的任何變化，所以 - 加里，關於定位。

Harlan, packaging is really the highest market share area for Applied Materials. We have a broad portfolio. We're the largest supplier of all the materials innovation inside packaging. We have a unique integrated packaging R&D center in Singapore, where we have a lot of our leading customers co-innovating with us on next-generation architectures.

哈蘭，封裝確實是應用材料公司市佔率最高的領域。我們擁有廣泛的產品組合。我們是包裝內所有材料創新的最大供應商。我們在新加坡擁有一個獨特的綜合封裝研發中心，許多領先的客戶在這裡與我們共同創新下一代架構。

And we have a strong pipeline of new capabilities coming, including an integrated hybrid bonding system and other technologies that will further strengthen our market share in packaging.

我們擁有一系列即將推出的新功能，包括整合混合黏合系統和其他技術，這些技術將進一步加強我們在包裝領域的市場份額。

And what I talked about earlier on the call is that we're on track to more than double this business going forward to more than $3 billion per year. And I would say that for me personally -- again, AI, energy-efficient computing, this is really one of four areas that is really important for power and performance. So I'm personally spending a tremendous amount of time with our customers.

我之前在電話會議上談到，我們預計將這項業務規模增加一倍以上，達到每年 30 億美元以上。就我個人而言，我想說的是——人工智慧、節能運算，這是對功率和效能真正重要的四個領域之一。因此我個人花了大量的時間與我們的客戶在一起。

We're also working with customers in the ecosystem on new architectures that I think are going to have a big impact on energy efficiency, but also create further opportunities for Applied Materials. So again, we have high visibility into this segment of our business. This is the highest share, well-positioned, and again, on track to more than double this to more than $3 billion in the next few years.

我們也與生態系統中的客戶合作開發新架構，我認為這將對能源效率產生重大影響，同時也為應用材料創造更多機會。因此，我們對這一業務領域有很高的了解。這是最高的份額，處於有利地位，並且預計在未來幾年內再增加一倍以上，達到 30 多億美元。

Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.

Krish Sankar，TD Cowen。

Yeah, thanks for taking my question. I had a question for Brice, and sorry for harping on China sales. A clarification on the question. The first one on the clarification. Your April quarter China revenues were $1.8 billion, and July was $2.6 billion. Did the Liberation Day in the month of April push some of your China sales from April into the July quarter?

是的，感謝您回答我的問題。我有一個問題想問布萊斯，很抱歉一直在談論中國市場的銷售。對這個問題的澄清。第一個是關於澄清的。貴公司 4 月在中國的營收為 18 億美元，7 月在中國的營收為 26 億美元。四月的解放日是否會將你們四月的部分中國銷售推至七月季度？

And then on the question, on October quarter weakness, you said China is $500 million. How much is the licensing amount you backed out of that? And if that comes through, how should we think about the revenue upside in October from getting the licenses, and any implications on gross margin?

然後關於這個問題，10 月季度的疲軟程度，您說中國是 5 億美元。您退出的許可金額是多少？如果這項計劃得以實現，我們應該如何看待獲得許可證後 10 月的收入成長以及對毛利率的影響？

Okay, thanks, Krish, for the question. So on the first one, you're definitely remembering the dynamics correctly. There was a lot of uncertainty towards the end of our Q2, as I think some of the trade and tariff uncertainties were resolved towards the end of our quarter. So we were scrambling to ship what we had planned on shipping.

好的，謝謝 Krish 提出這個問題。因此，對於第一個問題，你肯定正確地記住了動態。我們第二季末存在許多不確定性，因為我認為一些貿易和關稅不確定性在本季末已經解決。因此，我們急忙運送我們計劃運送的貨物。

But as I articulated last time, we pretty much made the quarter exactly as we expected even though there was a lot of uncertainty in the last few weeks of that quarter. So as we think about the higher number in our Q3 results here for China, I don't think it was a push from Q2. That's not the dynamic. It was just more business, and I assume there are reasons at each customer for making that quarter larger.

但正如我上次所說，儘管該季度最後幾週存在許多不確定性，但我們本季的業績基本上符合預期。因此，當我們考慮到中國第三季業績的更高數字時，我不認為這是第二季的推動。事實並非如此。這只是更多的業務，我認為每個客戶都有理由讓該季度的業務量更大。

But I would also say that Q2 and Q4 are more indicative of the level of business we've been expecting this year, given some digestion in China. And then on the licensing, I wouldn't look for upside to our outlook quarter. I think even if that situation changes, it'll take time to plan and build equipment or turn on services. So I don't think there's any immediate upside that anyone should expect from that. We're just highlighting that it is affecting the trajectory of the business, which is unfortunate.

但我還要說的是，考慮到中國市場的一些消化能力，第二季和第四季的表現更能反映我們今年預期的業務水準。然後就許可而言，我不會期待我們的展望季度出現上行趨勢。我認為即使情況發生變化，規劃和建造設備或啟動服務也需要時間。因此，我認為任何人都不應該期望由此獲得任何直接的好處。我們只是想強調，它正在影響業務的發展軌跡，這是不幸的。

Is there a way to quantify that licensing amount in dollars or no?

有沒有辦法以美元量化許可金額？

No, we're not going to offer that, but it is a large number of licenses.

不，我們不會提供這個，但這是一個大量的許可證。

Charles Shi, Needham & Company

Charles Shi，Needham & Company

I noticed that you actually upsized your leading-edge DRAM growth for the current fiscal year from 40%, which was what you've said last quarter to 50%. But the fiscal Q3 DRAM number, you said it's slightly better than you expected, that was down sequentially. But that kind of implies the October quarter may bounce back a little bit.

我注意到，您實際上將本財年的前沿 DRAM 成長率從上個季度所說的 40% 提高到了 50%。但是您說第三財季的 DRAM 數據比您預期的要好一些，環比有所下降。但這意味著十月份季度可能會略有反彈。

So my question is, is that really just a temporary pop, given all the things you talk about timing, uncertainties among your leading customers or maybe there's still more of a durability into the early part of fiscal 2026 for the leading edge DRAM? Thank you.

所以我的問題是，考慮到您談論的時間、主要客戶的不確定性，這真的只是暫時的流行嗎？或者對於領先的 DRAM 來說，在 2026 財年初期是否還有更強的持久性？謝謝。

Yeah, thanks for the question, Charles. Yeah, I certainly don't want to draw the conclusion that there's any pop or some unusual increment there. We view DRAM as very strong. We view what's happening in DRAM to be sustainable from a trend perspective, without making a specific guide. So like we said, it should be either a record year or a second-best year this year, and it's really those leading-edge customers growing.

是的，謝謝你的提問，查爾斯。是的，我當然不想得出這樣的結論：那裡有任何流行或不尋常的增量。我們認為 DRAM 非常強大。我們從趨勢角度來看DRAM的發展是可持續的，但不做具體的指導。所以就像我們所說的那樣，今年應該是創紀錄的一年或第二好的一年，而真正成長的是那些前沿客戶。

And I think our investors know, underneath what's happening for DRAM is you have HBM growing at 30% to 40%, depending on which report you look at. About 15% of DRAM capacity is allocated towards HBM. There's a trade-off, as you know, between making high-bandwidth memory and not in terms of the amount of silicon required.

我認為我們的投資者知道，DRAM 的根本原因是 HBM 的成長速度為 30% 到 40%，具體取決於你所查看的報告。大約 15% 的 DRAM 容量分配給 HBM。如您所知，製造高頻寬記憶體與所需的矽量之間存在權衡。

So there's a significant demand pull in DRAM and our forward-looking outlook. And our perspective is that it's not a blip. Thanks for the question.

因此，DRAM 的需求拉動顯著，這是我們的前瞻性展望。我們的觀點是，這不是曇花一現。謝謝你的提問。

Brian Chin, Stifel.

Brian Chin，Stifel。

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for letting us ask a question. Just to be clear then, I guess relative to that commentary or clarification around leading-edge DRAM spending, that timing or fab timing and sort of this linearity sort of impacts the next quarters. The October quarter revenue, that's really mainly focused in advanced foundry, it sounds like.

嗨，下午好。感謝您讓我們提問。只是為了清楚起見，我想相對於圍繞前沿 DRAM 支出的評論或澄清，時間或晶圓廠時間以及這種線性會影響下一季。聽起來，十月季度的收入主要集中在先進代工領域。

But more broadly, I also heard something about thinking that at full scale, Gate-All-Around could be something like 300,000 wafers per month. Are we exiting this year maybe something like around 10%, or a little bit higher than that? So basically suggesting that we have a pretty long runway there in terms of that expansion.

但從更廣泛的角度來看，我還聽到一些想法，認為 Gate-All-Around 的全面產量可以達到每月 30 萬片晶圓。我們今年的退出目標大概是 10% 左右，還是略高一點？所以這基本上表明我們在擴張方面擁有相當長的跑道。

Brian, thanks for the question. So you're right, our comments on concentration are directed towards leading logic, not DRAM. I'm sure there's some of the same factor in DRAM, but in terms of the non-linearity of builds and the things that we're working on, that's directed towards a foundry comment, leading logic comment.

布萊恩，謝謝你的提問。所以你是對的，我們對集中度的評論是針對領先邏輯，而不是 DRAM。我確信 DRAM 中也存在一些相同的因素，但就構建的非線性以及我們正在研究的事情而言，這都是針對代工廠的評論和領先的邏輯評論。

And we just went through DRAM. We think that's strong. It continues to be strong. And then on the Gate-All-Around nodes, based on our numbers of $4.5 billion and what we shipped last year, $2.5 billion, we'd estimate close to 100,000 wafer starts of capacity are in the field or will be in the field as we close the quarter. And so, you're in the first three innings of the build-out there from a Gate-All-Around, at least the initial node, and then of course, there'll be subsequent nodes.

我們剛剛經歷了 DRAM。我們認為這很強大。它繼續保持強勁。然後，在 Gate-All-Around 節點上，根據我們的 45 億美元數字和去年 25 億美元的出貨量，我們估計在本季度結束時，將有接近 100,000 片晶圓的產能投入使用或將投入使用。因此，您處於從 Gate-All-Around 開始的構建的前三局，至少是初始節點，然後當然會有後續節點。

Chris Caso, Raymond James.

克里斯卡索、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Yes, thank you. Good afternoon. I guess a two-part question on China. One is, how significant were the multinationals in China? That would sound like a source of strength last quarter. Was that very significant?

是的，謝謝。午安.我想問一個關於中國的問題，分成兩個部分。一是跨國公司在中國有多重要？這聽起來像是上個季度的一個力量來源。這很重要嗎？

And then going forward, you've given China as a percentage of revenue based on what you thought in the past and that's something we talked about for Q2. I guess what I'm hearing now is that the Q2, Q4 China revenue numbers, we should kind of stay at those levels over the next couple of quarters. And it sounds like that happens regardless of whether or not you get incremental licenses. Is that the correct interpretation?

然後展望未來，您將根據過去的想法將中國作為收入的百分比，這是我們在第二季度討論過的事情。我想我現在聽到的是，第二季、第四季中國的營收數據在未來幾季應該會維持在這個水準。聽起來無論您是否獲得增量許可，都會發生這種情況。這是正確的解釋嗎？

Yes, Chris, thanks for the question. So on the multinationals, we did have revenue from that in our Q3, and it was noticeable. We wouldn't share the exact number, but it was noticeable and definitely part of our revenues in the quarter. And there is a little bit in Q4, although very small in Q4. And then on the second piece, can you repeat the second piece? I can't read my own writing.

是的，克里斯，謝謝你的提問。因此，就跨國公司而言，我們在第三季確實獲得了收入，而且這是顯而易見的。我們不會透露具體的數字，但這個數字是顯而易見的，而且肯定是我們本季收入的一部分。第四季也有一點，儘管第四季的幅度很小。那麼關於第二部分，你能重複第二部分嗎？我看不懂自己寫的字。

It's okay. You had given in the past your expectations as a percentage of revenue. So is it sort of Q2, Q4 levels? We'll just take that and assume that's flat the next couple of quarters, regardless of whether or not you get incremental licenses?

沒關係。您過去曾以收入百分比的形式給予您的期望。那麼它是 Q2、Q4 等級嗎？我們就這麼認為，並假設在接下來的幾個季度裡，這個數字將保持不變，無論您是否獲得增量許可？

Yeah, I think in that range. So we were okay to share that with our guide, we're probably 15% to 20% down for China relative to 2024, and that's probably the right level to think about for the next few quarters.

是的，我認為在那個範圍內。因此，我們可以與我們的指南分享這一點，相對於 2024 年，中國經濟可能會下降 15％ 到 20％，這可能是未來幾季需要考慮的正確水平。

Got it. That's helpful. Thank you.

知道了。這很有幫助。謝謝。

Timm Schulze-Melander, Redburn Atlantic.

梅蘭德 (Timm Schulze-Melander)，Redburn Atlantic。

Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to build on the response to Jim Schneider's question. You talked about in China, you have the visibility that lets you guide for a pretty stable reset to revenues for the next few quarters.

感謝您回答我的問題。我只是想在回答 Jim Schneider 的問題的基礎上再做進一步的說明。您談到了中國的情況，您擁有的可視性可以引導您未來幾季的收入實現相當穩定的調整。

Just want to come back to the logic foundry sort of leading-edge part of your business. You talked about how you update with customers kind of a couple of times a quarter. So just as you see this now, is it that a visibility for the next few quarters isn't possible or the spread is too wide?

我只是想回到邏輯代工這你們業務的前沿部分。您談到如何每季向客戶更新幾次資訊。那麼，正如您現在所看到的，是否無法預測未來幾季的情況，或者差距太大了？

I just wanted to understand why we have kind of a reasonable shot here in China and maybe why that doesn't exist in logic/foundry leading edge?

我只是想了解為什麼我們在中國有合理的機會，以及為什麼在邏輯/代工前沿領域不存在這種機會？

Yes. Thanks, Tim. I think I definitely wouldn't want to create the perspective that we have more visibility in China than we do in the other end markets. That's not the case. I think what's shading our comments on China is just our expectation that it can't run at the same rate in the short term that we saw in 2024.

是的。謝謝，蒂姆。我認為我絕對不想讓人們覺得我們在中國的知名度比在其他終端市場更高。事實並非如此。我認為，我們對中國的評論之所以產生懷疑，是因為我們預期中國經濟短期內不可能以 2024 年那樣的速度發展。

We know there was a lot of incentives to make the level of investment in 2024. So we've been expecting it to be lower than 2024 until utilizations across all those factories become higher. So I guess that's more of intuition matched by, of course, what we're hearing from the customers and the accounts.

我們知道，有許多激勵措施可以實現 2024 年的投資水準。因此，我們一直預計這一數字將低於 2024 年，直到所有這些工廠的利用率都變得更高。所以我想這更多的是直覺，當然也與我們從客戶和帳戶聽到的內容相符。

On the leading edge, it's a good question. And what we're doing is just realizing that we had a lot of effort during COVID put into building good visibility with our customers into multiyear demand and multiyear build plans.

從前沿角度來看，這是一個好問題。我們所做的只是意識到，在 COVID 期間，我們付出了很多努力，以便與客戶建立對多年需求和多年建設計劃的良好可見性。

And in this uncertain environment, what we're saying is we've kind of fallen off that. Customers have been less certain, and that added visibility that we had put in place just isn't there right now. We do have a good perspective of factories and capacity that's being put in place. And so then it comes down to the actual build order and linearity, and that's what we're working on.

在這種不確定的環境中，我們所說的情況是，我們已經有點落後了。客戶不再那麼確定，而我們之前設定的可見性現在也不存在了。我們確實對正在建造的工廠和產能有著良好的展望。所以它歸結為實際的建造順序和線性，這就是我們正在努力的。

Shane Brett, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Shane Brett。

Thanks for taking my question. Sorry for harping on the leading edge logic please here. But so on that $4.5 billion of GA revenue, how would you characterize your share position kind of one year into this GAA ramp? And has this tracked in line with expectations or are there things that haven't gone as planned?

感謝您回答我的問題。抱歉，我在這裡反覆強調前沿邏輯。但是，那麼，對於 45 億美元的 GA 收入，您如何描述您在 GAA 增長一年後的份額狀況？這一切是否符合預期，或是有什麼事情沒有照計畫進行？

And I'm asking this because just $500 million is not nothing. It's a bit of a step down from the $5 billion that you earlier mentioned. Just want to get assurance that this is a share issue. Thank you.

我之所以會問這個問題，是因為 5 億美元並不是一筆小數目。這比你之前提到的 50 億美元略有下降。只是想確認這是股票發行。謝謝。

Shane, thanks for the question. So we have very high visibility on the architecture inflections for our leading-edge logic customers. The big inflections that are really crucial for AI, energy-efficient computing, our gate all around and backside power distribution.

Shane，謝謝你的提問。因此，我們對領先邏輯客戶的架構變化有很高的了解。對於人工智慧、節能運算、門控和背面配電而言，這些重大轉變確實至關重要。

And as we've talked about before and as I talked about earlier on the call, we expect revenue for Applied to increase about 30% on the same number of wafer starts as those two nodes ramp over the next couple of years. So Applied is in an extremely strong position with all of those leading-edge logic customers.

正如我們之前談到的以及我之前在電話會議上談到的，我們預計，隨著未來幾年這兩個節點的產能提升，應用材料公司的收入將在相同數量的晶圓啟動基礎上增長約 30%。因此，應用材料公司在所有這些前沿邏輯客戶中都佔據著極其有利的地位。

And I would say that our engagements with customers are earlier, deeper, and broader than they've ever been. And when you think about gate all around or backside power in the transistor and the wiring, those are areas where Applied has tremendously enabling technologies and that those are also inflections where there's significant demand for our integrated systems.

我想說的是，我們與客戶的互動比以往任何時候都更早、更深入、更廣泛。當您考慮電晶體和佈線中的閘極周圍或背面電源時，這些都是應用材料公司擁有巨大支援技術的領域，也是對我們的整合系統有巨大需求的轉折點。

When you're thinking about these chips, there are over 2,000 steps. Some of those materials are a few atoms thick. And so those interfaces are really difficult and have a big impact on the overall electrical performance.

當你考慮這些晶片時，有超過 2,000 個步驟。其中一些材料只有幾個原子厚。因此，這些介面確實很困難，並且對整體電氣性能有很大影響。

So what we're seeing is an increased adoption of integrated systems, the number of steps, the number of technologies you're integrating into a single platform. And I would say that very high visibility, very high confidence that we are outperforming as gate all around is ramping first generation, next-generation. And also we're positioned to outperform on backside power.

因此，我們看到整合系統的採用率、步驟數量以及整合到單一平台的技術數量都在增加。我想說的是，我們的表現非常出色，知名度很高，信心十足，我們正在全面推進第一代和下一代產品。而且，我們也準備好在後端力量方面表現出色。

Again, these are essential for our customers for their design wins, for their key AI customers and super high confidence that we are gaining share and positioned for significant revenue growth going forward.

再次強調，這些對我們的客戶來說至關重要，對於他們的設計勝利，對於他們的關鍵人工智慧客戶，以及對於我們正在獲得市場份額並在未來實現顯著收入成長的高度信心。

Vijay Rakesh, Mizuho.

瑞穗的 Vijay Rakesh。

Just to follow up on the previous question. In terms of the ramps, given your more than 50% share on gate-all-around and backside power. When do you see that start to get more material, if you can give us some more color there?

只是為了跟進上一個問題。就坡道而言，考慮到您在門環和背面電源方面擁有超過 50% 的份額。您什麼時候能開始獲得更多材料，能否提供我們一些詳細資訊？

Yes. I think -- thanks for the question, Vijay. We won't get specific. We do expect it to ramp. So we did expect in the prior quarter that we would see continued acceleration. And so we can't -- right now, we're going to have to work on what the loading plan is for the next couple of quarters. So I think we'll just have to wait for more visibility as we work with the customers across.

是的。我認為——感謝維傑提出這個問題。我們不會具體說明。我們確實預計它會上升。因此，我們確實在上一季預計會看到持續的加速。所以我們不能——現在，我們必須研究未來幾季的裝載計畫。因此我認為我們只需要等待與客戶合作時以獲得更多的可見度。

So just generally, we do expect investment to increase. When we think across the long term, we have leading-edge logic and DRAM as the two fastest-growing end markets. So we think we have double exposure to the two fastest end markets with both -- being exposed to the markets themselves and having technologies that will allow us to gain share.

所以整體來說，我們確實預期投資會增加。從長遠來看，我們認為前沿邏輯和 DRAM 是成長最快的兩個終端市場。因此，我們認為我們對兩個最快的終端市場都有雙重曝光——既接觸市場本身，又擁有可以讓我們獲得份額的技術。

That's the strategy that we're putting in place that we have for the company. But we'll just have to wait as we work with the customers on the next couple of quarters.

這就是我們為公司製定的策略。但我們必須等待，因為我們將在接下來的幾季與客戶合作。

Got it. And then quickly on the OpEx side, price just I mean with the revenues being a little challenge there? Any thoughts on where it I think it's like 16% is your long-term target? Where do you see that trending on OpEx?

知道了。然後快速地從營運支出來看，價格只是意味著收入方面存在一點挑戰嗎？您認為您的長期目標是否為 16%？您認為 OpEx 的趨勢如何？

Yes. Thanks for the question. We've been closer to 18% for some time. I think 16% was an aged number probably from the model of years ago. But to your point, given the revenue guide, we'll be very cautious on spending as we go through the next quarter. And so you should see us behave that way.

是的。謝謝你的提問。一段時間以來，我們的比例已經接近 18%。我認為 16% 是一個過時的數字，可能是根據幾年前的模型得出的。但正如您所說，根據收入指南，我們在下個季度將非常謹慎地支出。所以你應該看到我們這樣做。

Joe Quatrochi, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的喬‧夸特羅奇 (Joe Quatrochi)。

I was wondering if you could kind of comment on the ICAP business. I understand the weakness in China, but a non-China ICAP, have you started to see that business stabilize or should we think about both China and non-China being continued headwind for growth in the coming quarters?

我想知道您是否可以對 ICAP 業務發表評論。我了解中國市場的疲軟，但對於非中國 ICAP 來說，您是否已經開始看到業務趨於穩定，或者我們是否應該考慮中國和非中國市場在未來幾季繼續成為成長的阻力？

Thanks for the question, Joe. It is -- we do still see lower utilizations across the ICAP. Having said that, and ICAPs being our mature nodes, IoT, communications, auto, power, and sensors for investors listening where that acronym is new.

謝謝你的提問，喬。我們確實看到整個 ICAP 的利用率仍然較低。話雖如此，ICAP 是我們成熟的節點，對於投資者來說，物聯網、通訊、汽車、電力和感測器是新出現的。

I think what we've said for several quarters is with utilization is low and some of the end markets slower, that the investment levels would still be muted. And we did see some green shoots in the quarter. We saw some pickup on the industrial side. And as I highlighted, we do see rest of world investments this quarter in ICAP picking up.

我認為我們幾個季度以來一直在說，由於利用率低，一些終端市場發展較慢，投資水準仍然會較低。本季我們確實看到了一些復甦的跡象。我們看到工業方面有所回升。正如我所強調的，我們確實看到本季世界其他地區對 ICAP 的投資有所回升。

So I think this one will just be a space to watch. Over time, we do expect the ICAP market to grow. It's just a question of how much digestion we have in China for the overall market going forward.

所以我認為這只是一個值得觀看的空間。隨著時間的推移，我們確實預計 ICAP 市場將會成長。問題只是未來中國對整體市場的消化能力有多強。

This does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to Bryce Hill for any further remarks.

今天節目的問答環節到此結束。我想將節目單交還給布萊斯·希爾，以便他提出進一步的意見。

Thank you, and thank you, everybody, for attending today. In summary, during this period of lower visibility, we're leveraging our global supply chain and manufacturing footprint to stay flexible and adapt to a dynamic range of scenario.

謝謝大家，也謝謝大家今天的出席。總而言之，在這個能見度較低的時期，我們正在利用我們的全球供應鏈和製造足跡來保持靈活性並適應各種動態情況。

As I've highlighted in the past, we understand that quarterly growth may be uneven at times. But that doesn't deter us from our strategy to focus on the highest growth areas of the market, which are directly enabling secular trends like AI. Thank you. And Liz, please close the call.

正如我過去所強調的那樣，我們知道季度成長有時可能會不均衡。但這並沒有阻止我們專注於市場中成長最快的領域的策略，這些領域直接推動著人工智慧等長期趨勢。謝謝。莉茲，請結束通話。

Thank you, Brice. I'd like to call your attention to some upcoming investor events. On August 28, Brice will attend the Deutsche Bank Technology Conference. And on September 9, Gary will attend the Goldman Sachs Communicopia and Technology Conference. And then lastly, a replay of today's call will be available on the Investor Relations website by 5:00 PM Pacific Time today. Thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

謝謝你，布萊斯。我想提請您關註一些即將舉行的投資者活動。8月28日，Brice將出席德意志銀行科技大會。9月9日，Gary將出席高盛通訊和技術會議。最後，今天的電話會議重播將於今天太平洋時間下午 5:00 之前在投資者關係網站上提供。感謝您對應用材料的持續關注。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位參加今天的會議。該計劃確實就此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。再會。