PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Well, good morning, and welcome to today's conference call for the PNC Financial Services Group. I'm Brian Gill, the Director of Investor Relations for PNC and participating on this call are PNC's Chairman, President and CEO, Bill Demchak; and Rob Reilly, Executive Vice President and CFO. Today's presentation contains forward-looking information. Cautionary statements about this information as well as reconciliations of non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release materials as well as our SEC filings and other investor materials. These are all available on our corporate website, pnc.com, under Investor Relations. These statements speak only as of January 16, 2024, and PNC undertakes no obligation to update them. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bill.

早安，歡迎參加今天的 PNC 金融服務集團電話會議。我是 PNC 投資者關係總監 Brian Gill，參加本次電話會議的有 PNC 董事長、總裁兼執行長 Bill Demchak；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Rob Reilly。今天的演示包含前瞻性資訊。有關此資訊的警告性聲明以及非公認會計準則措施的調節包含在今天的收益發布資料以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件和其他投資者資料中。這些都可以在我們公司網站 pnc.com 的「投資者關係」下找到。這些聲明僅截至 2024 年 1 月 16 日，PNC 不承擔更新義務。現在我想把電話轉給比爾。

Thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone. During the challenging and volatile operating environment for the banking industry, PNC performed well during 2023 and delivered a solid finish in the fourth quarter. For the full year 2023, adjusting for the fourth quarter impact of the FDIC special assessment, and expenses related to a staff reduction initiative that we completed in the fourth quarter, we earned $14.10 per diluted share compared to $13.85 per diluted share in 2022. Throughout the year and amidst all the disruption, we continue to grow our customer base and deepen relationships across our coast-to-coast franchise. Importantly, we generated record revenue and controlled core expenses, which allowed us to deliver a modest amount of positive adjusted operating leverage.

謝謝你，布萊恩，大家早安。在銀行業充滿挑戰和動盪的經營環境中，PNC 在 2023 年表現良好，並在第四季度取得了穩健的成績。就2023 年全年而言，調整FDIC 特別評估第四季度的影響以及我們在第四季度完成的裁員計劃相關的費用後，我們稀釋後每股收益為14.10 美元，而2022 年稀釋後每股收益為13.85 美元。這一年，在所有的干擾中，我們繼續擴大我們的客戶群，並加深我們從東海岸到西海岸的特許經營權的關係。重要的是，我們創造了創紀錄的收入並控制了核心支出，這使我們能夠提供適度的正向調整營運槓桿。

For the fourth quarter, we reported $883 million in net income or $1.85 diluted per share and $3.16 per share on an adjusted basis. Rob is going to take you through the financials in a moment, but I'd like to highlight a few points. First, as we announced in early October, we closed on the acquisition of the capital commitment loans from Signature, which is immediately accretive to earnings. Secondly, as we expected, we saw meaningful growth from noninterest income during the fourth quarter, driven primarily by a rebound in capital markets and advisory fees. Third, we completed the actions to reduce our workforce, and we are positioned to realize $325 million of expense savings in 2024. This is in addition to our CIP savings target for 2024 that Rob will discuss in a few minutes.

第四季度，我們報告淨利潤為 8.83 億美元，稀釋後每股收益為 1.85 美元，調整後每股收益為 3.16 美元。羅布稍後將向您介紹財務狀況，但我想強調幾點。首先，正如我們在 10 月初宣布的那樣，我們完成了對 Signature 資本承諾貸款的收購，這會立即增加收益。其次，正如我們預期的那樣，第四季度非利息收入出現顯著增長，這主要是由資本市場和諮詢費用的反彈所推動的。第三，我們完成了裁員行動，預計在 2024 年實現 3.25 億美元的費用節省。這是對 Rob 將在幾分鐘內討論的 2024 年 CIP 節省目標的補充。

Expense discipline remains a top priority for us. And accordingly, we are targeting stable expenses for 2024, even as we continue to invest in key growth initiatives. Fourth, our credit quality remained strong during the quarter, reflecting our thoughtful approach to growing our balance sheet, while we continue to expect credit charge-offs to increase over time, particularly in the CRE office segment, we're adequately reserved. Finally, during the fourth quarter, we increased our capital position, saw solid improvement in our AOCI intangible book value and repurchased a modest amount of shares.

費用紀律仍然是我們的首要任務。因此，我們的目標是 2024 年保持穩定的支出，同時我們將繼續投資於關鍵成長計畫。第四，我們的信貸品質在本季度保持強勁，反映出我們在擴大資產負債表方面採取的深思熟慮的方法，雖然我們繼續預期信貸沖銷將隨著時間的推移而增加，特別是在商業地產辦公部門，但我們有足夠的保留。最後，在第四季度，我們增加了資本頭寸，看到 AOCI 無形帳面價值穩步改善，並回購了少量股票。

In summary, we run our company with a focus on delivering through the cycle performance and feel very good about our strategy, our capabilities and the strength of our balance sheet as we enter 2024. And we believe we are well positioned to drive growth and deliver shareholder value in the coming year and beyond. As always, I want to thank our employees for everything they do to meet the needs of our customers and make our success possible. And with that, I'll turn it over to Rob.

總而言之，我們營運公司的重點是在整個週期內實現績效，並且在進入2024 年時，我們對我們的策略、我們的能力和資產負債表的實力感到非常滿意。我們相信，我們有能力推動成長並實現目標來年及以後的股東價值。一如既往，我要感謝我們的員工為滿足客戶的需求並使我們的成功成為可能所做的一切。有了這個，我會把它交給羅布。

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Our balance sheet is on Slide 3 and is presented on an average basis and compared to the third quarter. Loans were up 2% and averaged $325 billion which includes the acquired Signature capital commitment loans. Investment securities declined $2 billion or 2%. Cash balances at the Federal Reserve increased $4 billion to $42 billion and deposits increased $1.4 billion and average $424 billion. Borrowed funds increased $5 billion to $73 billion driven by higher FHLB borrowings and parent company senior debt issuances.

謝謝比爾，大家早安。我們的資產負債表位於投影片 3 上，是按平均數據與第三季進行比較的。貸款成長 2%，平均為 3,250 億美元，其中包括收購的 Signature 資本承諾貸款。投資證券下跌 20 億美元，或 2%。聯準會現金餘額增加 40 億美元，達到 420 億美元，存款增加 14 億美元，平均 4,240 億美元。由於 FHLB 借款增加和母公司優先債務發行，借入資金增加了 50 億美元，達到 730 億美元。

At year-end, PNC was fully compliant with the proposed holding company long-term debt requirements. And we expect to reach compliance with the bank level metrics through our normal course of funding well in advance of the phase-in period. AOCI improved $2.6 billion to negative $7.7 billion at quarter end, primarily reflecting the impact of favorable interest rate movements during the quarter. Accordingly, tangible book value increased to $85.08 per common share, up 9% linked quarter and 18% compared to the same period a year ago. We remain well capitalized with an estimated CET1 ratio of 9.9% as of December 31, which increased 10 basis points linked quarter. Our estimated fully phased-in expanded risk-based CET1 ratio based on the new proposed capital rules would be approximately 8.2% at year-end, which is well above our current requirement of 7%.

截至年底，PNC 完全符合擬議的控股公司長期債務要求。我們預計在分階段實施前，透過正常的融資過程，能夠達到銀行層級的指標要求。季末，AOCI 增加 26 億美元，至負 77 億美元，主要反映了本季有利利率變動的影響。因此，有形帳面價值增至每股普通股 85.08 美元，較上季成長 9%，與去年同期相比成長 18%。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的資本充足，預計 CET1 比率為 9.9%，季增 10 個基點。我們預計，根據新提議的資本規則，全面分階段擴大的基於風險的 CET1 比率到年底約為 8.2%，遠高於我們目前 7% 的要求。

We continue to be well positioned with capital flexibility. During the quarter, we resumed modest share repurchase activity of approximately $100 million or roughly 0.5 million shares. And when combined with $600 million of common dividends, we returned a total of $700 million of capital to shareholders. Slide 4 shows our loans in more detail. Compared to the third quarter, average loan balances increased 2% driven by higher commercial loan balances and modest growth in consumer. Commercial loans were $223 billion, an increase of $5 billion driven by the acquisition of the Signature capital commitment portfolio.

我們在資本彈性方面繼續處於有利地位。本季度，我們恢復了約 1 億美元或約 50 萬股的適度股票回購活動。加上 6 億美元的普通股股息，我們總共向股東返還了 7 億美元的資本。幻燈片 4 更詳細地展示了我們的貸款。與第三季相比，由於商業貸款餘額增加和消費者溫和成長，平均貸款餘額增加了 2%。商業貸款為 2,230 億美元，由於收購 Signature 資本承諾投資組合，增加了 50 億美元。

Excluding the $8 billion full quarter average impact from the Signature loan portfolio, commercial loans declined $3 billion or 1% and driven by lower utilization and soft loan demand. Consumer loans grew approximately $130 million, driven by higher residential mortgage balances, partially offset by lower home equity and credit card balances. And loan yields increased 19 basis points to 5.94% in the fourth quarter.

不包括 Signature 貸款組合帶來的整個季度 80 億美元的平均影響，商業貸款下降了 30 億美元，即 1%，這是由於利用率下降和貸款需求疲軟所推動的。受住宅抵押貸款餘額增加的推動，消費貸款增加了約 1.3 億美元，但部分被房屋淨值和信用卡餘額減少所抵消。第四季貸款收益率上升 19 個基點至 5.94%。

Slide 5 covers our deposits in more detail. Average deposits grew $1.4 billion to $424 billion during the quarter, as seasonal growth in commercial deposits was partially offset by a decline in consumer deposits. In regard to mix, consolidated noninterest-bearing deposits were 25% in the fourth quarter, down slightly from 26% in the third quarter and consistent with our expectations. We continue to expect a noninterest-bearing portion of our deposits to stabilize near current levels. Our current rate paid on interest-bearing deposits increased to 2.48% during the fourth quarter, up from 2.26% in the prior quarter. As of December 31, our cumulative deposit beta was 44% and in line with our expectation for the quarter.

幻燈片 5 更詳細地介紹了我們的存款。本季平均存款成長 14 億美元，達到 4,240 億美元，商業存款的季節性成長被消費者存款的下降部分抵銷。從結構來看，第四季合併無息存款為 25%，略低於第三季的 26%，符合我們的預期。我們繼續預計存款的無息部分將穩定在當前水準附近。第四季度，我們的計息存款現行利率從上一季的 2.26% 升至 2.48%。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的累計存款貝塔值為 44%，符合我們對本季的預期。

As we stated previously, we expect betas to drift modestly higher, while interest rates remain at current level. And our current forecast calls for the first rate cut to occur in mid-2024, at which point we believe the rate paid on deposits will begin to decline.

正如我們之前所說，我們預計貝塔值將小幅走高，而利率仍保持在當前水平。我們目前的預測是首次降息將於 2024 年中期進行，屆時我們認為存款利率將開始下降。

Slide 6 details our investment security and swap portfolios. Average investment securities of $137 billion decreased 2% as curtailed purchase activity was more than offset by portfolio paydowns and maturities. The securities portfolio yield increased 2 basis points to 2.59%, reflecting the runoff of lower-yielding securities. As of December 31, the duration of the investment securities portfolio was 4.1 years. Our received fixed swaps point into the commercial loan book totaled $33 billion on December 31. The weighted average received fixed rate of our swap portfolio increased 3 basis points to 2.1% and the duration of the portfolio was 2.3 years.

投影片 6 詳細介紹了我們的投資安全和掉期投資組合。平均投資證券為 1,370 億美元，下降了 2%，因為購買活動的減少被投資組合償還和到期所抵消。證券投資組合殖利率上升 2 個基點至 2.59%，反映出低收益證券的流失。截至12月31日，投資證券組合的久期為4.1年。截至12 月31 日，我們在商業貸款帳簿中收到的固定掉期點總額為330 億美元。我們掉期投資組合的加權平均固定利率增加了3 個基點，達到2.1%，投資組合的久期為2.3 年。

AOCI improved by $2.6 billion in the fourth quarter, reflecting lower interest rates. Importantly, as lower rate securities and swaps roll off, we expect a continued meaningful improvement to tangible book value from AOCI accretion.

第四季 AOCI 增加了 26 億美元，反映出利率下降。重要的是，隨著較低利率證券和掉期的推出，我們預計 AOCI 的成長將持續顯著改善有形帳面價值。

Turning to the income statement on Slide 7. Fourth quarter net income was $883 million or $1.85 per share, which included pretax noncore expenses of $665 million or $525 million after tax, related to the FDIC special assessment and the workforce reduction charges incurred in the fourth quarter. Excluding noncore expenses, adjusted EPS was $3.16. Total revenue of $5.4 billion increased to $128 million or 2% compared to the third quarter of 2023. Net interest income declined modestly by $15 million. And our net interest margin was 2.66%, a decline of 5 basis points. Noninterest income increased $143 million or 8%. Noninterest expense of $4.1 billion increased $829 million or 26% and included $665 million of noncore expenses.

Turning to the income statement on Slide 7. Fourth quarter net income was $883 million or $1.85 per share, which included pretax noncore expenses of $665 million or $525 million after tax, related to the FDIC special assessment and the workforce reduction charges incurred in the fourth四分之一.不包括非核心費用，調整後每股收益為 3.16 美元。總營收從 54 億美元增至 1.28 億美元，較 2023 年第三季成長 2%。淨利息收入小幅下降 1,500 萬美元。淨利差為2.66%，下降5個基點。非利息收入增加 1.43 億美元，即 8%。非利息支出為 41 億美元，增加了 8.29 億美元，即 26%，其中包括 6.65 億美元的非核心支出。

Core noninterest expense was $3.4 billion and increased $164 million or 5%. Provision was $232 million in the fourth quarter and our effective tax rate was 16.3%. Full year 2023 revenue grew 2% compared to 2022. Core noninterest expense was well controlled and grew 1%. Importantly, our disciplined expense management and CIP savings allowed us to deliver modest positive operating leverage and PPNR growth of 2% on an adjusted basis.

核心非利息支出為 34 億美元，增加 1.64 億美元，即 5%。第四季撥備金額為 2.32 億美元，有效稅率為 16.3%。 2023年全年營收較2022年成長2%。核心非利息支出控制良好，成長1%。重要的是，我們嚴格的費用管理和 CIP 節省使我們能夠實現適度的正向營運槓桿和調整後 2% 的 PPNR 成長。

Turning to Slide 8. We highlight our revenue trends. Fourth quarter revenue was up $128 million or 2% compared with the third quarter driven by strong fee income as net interest income of $3.4 billion was down modestly. Fee income was $1.8 billion and increased $99 million or 6% linked quarter. Looking at the detail, capital markets and advisory fees rebounded as expected and increased $141 million or 84%, driven by higher M&A advisory fees. Asset Management and Brokerage revenue grew $12 million or 3%, reflecting favorable market conditions. And residential and commercial mortgage revenue declined $52 million or 26%, primarily due to a decrease in the valuation of net mortgage servicing rights.

轉向幻燈片 8。我們重點介紹我們的收入趨勢。由於淨利息收入 34 億美元小幅下降，手續費收入強勁，第四季營收較第三季成長 1.28 億美元，成長 2%。費用收入為 18 億美元，季增 9,900 萬美元，即 6%。從細節來看，資本市場和諮詢費用如預期反彈，在併購諮詢費用上漲的推動下增加了 1.41 億美元，即 84%。資產管理和經紀收入成長 1,200 萬美元，即 3%，反映了有利的市場條件。住宅和商業抵押貸款收入下降了 5,200 萬美元，或 26%，主要是由於淨抵押貸款服務權估值下降。

Other noninterest income of $138 million increased $44 million or 47% and included favorable valuation adjustments and gains on sales. The fourth quarter also included $100 million negative Visa fair value adjustment compared to a $51 million negative adjustment in the third quarter. As a reminder, at December 31, PNC owned 3.5 million Visa Class B shares with an unrecognized gain of approximately $1.5 billion.

其他非利息收入為 1.38 億美元，增加了 4,400 萬美元，即 47%，其中包括有利的估值調整和銷售收益。第四季還包括 1 億美元的 Visa 公允價值負調整，而第三季的負調整為 5,100 萬美元。需要提醒的是，截至 12 月 31 日，PNC 擁有 350 萬股 Visa B 類股票，未確認收益約 15 億美元。

Turning to Slide 9. Our fourth quarter noninterest expense of $4.1 billion was up $829 million and included $665 million of noncore charges. Core noninterest expense of $3.4 billion increased $164 million or 5% linked quarter, reflecting higher business activity, seasonality and asset impairments. During the quarter, we incurred $42 million of impairment charges, which were large related to building write-offs. Notably, in 2023, we reduced our non-branch footprint by 2 million square feet or approximately 17%. For the full year, core noninterest expense of $13.3 billion increased $177 million or 1%. Expense growth was well controlled due in part to the $50 million midyear increase in our CIP goal to $450 million, which we exceeded.

轉向幻燈片 9。我們第四季的非利息支出為 41 億美元，增加了 8.29 億美元，其中包括 6.65 億美元的非核心費用。核心非利息支出為 34 億美元，環比增加 1.64 億美元，即 5%，反映了業務活動、季節性和資產減損的增加。本季度，我們產生了 4,200 萬美元的減損費用，其中很大一部分與建築沖銷有關。值得注意的是，2023 年，我們的非分公司佔地減少了 200 萬平方英尺，約 17%。全年核心非利息支出為 133 億美元，增加了 1.77 億美元，即 1%。費用成長得到了很好的控制，部分原因是我們的 CIP 目標在年中增加了 5000 萬美元，達到了 4.5 億美元，我們超出了這一目標。

As a result, we generated 41 basis points of adjusted positive operating leverage for the full year.

結果，我們全年調整後的正經營槓桿達到了 41 個基點。

Looking forward to 2024, our annual CIP target is $425 million. This program funds a significant portion of our ongoing business and technology investments. And as of year-end, we completed actions related to the workforce reduction that will drive $325 million of cost savings in 2024. Taken together, we're implementing $750 million of expense management actions, all of which are reflected in our 2024 guidance that I will cover in a few minutes. Our credit metrics are presented on Slide 10. While overall credit quality remains strong across our portfolio, we did see a slight uptick in NPLs and delinquencies. Nonperforming loans increased $57 million or 3% linked quarter and included a $12 million increase in CRE.

展望 2024 年，我們的年度 CIP 目標是 4.25 億美元。該計劃為我們正在進行的業務和技術投資提供了很大一部分資金。截至年底，我們完成了與裁員相關的行動，這將在2024 年節省3.25 億美元的成本。總的來說，我們正在實施7.5 億美元的費用管理行動，所有這些都反映在我們的2024 年指導中：我將在幾分鐘內介紹。我們的信用指標如投影片 10 所示。雖然我們投資組合的整體信用品質依然強勁，但我們確實看到不良貸款和拖欠率略有上升。不良貸款增加 5,700 萬美元，較上季增加 3%，其中商業房地產 (CRE) 增加 1,200 萬美元。

Total delinquencies of $1.4 billion increased $97 million or 8% linked quarter. The increase included seasonally higher consumer delinquencies, the majority of which have already been resolved. Net loan charge-offs were $200 million in the fourth quarter and came in at the low end of our expectations. Our annualized net charge-off to average loans ratio was 24 basis points. And our allowance for credit losses totaled $5.5 billion or 1.7% of total loans on December 31, stable with September 30. The CRE office portfolio is where we continue to see the most stress and fourth quarter net loan charge-offs were $56 million. We continue to expect future losses on this portfolio. However, we believe we've adequately reserved for those potential losses. As of December 31, our reserves on the office portfolio were 8.7% of total office loans and inside of that, 12.9% on the multi-tenant portfolio.

14 億美元的拖欠總額增加了 9,700 萬美元，即環比增長 8%。這一增長包括消費者拖欠率季節性上升，其中大部分已經解決。第四季的淨貸款沖銷額為 2 億美元，處於我們預期的低端。我們的年化淨沖銷與平均貸款比率為 24 個基點。截至12 月31 日，我們的信貸損失準備金總額為55 億美元，佔貸款總額的1.7%，與9 月30 日持平。商業房地產辦公室投資組合是我們繼續面臨最大壓力的領域，第四季度淨貸款沖銷額為5,600 萬美元。我們繼續預期該投資組合未來會出現虧損。然而，我們相信我們已經為這些潛在損失做好了充分的準備。截至 12 月 31 日，我們辦公室投資組合的準備金佔辦公室貸款總額的 8.7%，其中多租戶投資組合的準備金佔 12.9%。

Importantly, our overall CRE office portfolio declined 6% or approximately $550 million linked quarter, reflecting a higher level of payoffs. Criticized office loans were flat and nonperforming loans increased 2% linked quarter. Naturally, we'll continue to monitor and review our assumptions to ensure they reflect current market conditions and a full update of this portfolio is included in the appendix slides.

重要的是，我們的整體 CRE 辦公室投資組合下降了 6%，即環比下降了約 5.5 億美元，反映出更高的回報水平。受到批評的辦公室貸款持平，不良貸款較上季成長 2%。當然，我們將繼續監控和審查我們的假設，以確保它們反映當前的市場狀況，並且該投資組合的完整更新包含在附錄幻燈片中。

In summary, PNC reported a solid fourth quarter and full year 2023. In regard to our view of the overall economy, we're expecting a mild recession starting in mid-2024 with a contraction in real GDP of less than 1%. We expect the federal funds rate to remain unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5% through mid-2024, when we expect the Fed to begin to cut rates. We expect a reduction of 75 basis points in 2024 with a 25 basis point decrease in July, November and December. Looking ahead, our outlook for full year 2024 compared to 2023 results is as follows: we expect spot loan growth of 3% to 4%, which equates to average loan growth of approximately 1%.

總之，PNC 報告指出 2023 年第四季和全年業績強勁。就我們對整體經濟的看法而言，我們預計 2024 年中期開始出現溫和衰退，實際 GDP 收縮幅度將低於 1%。我們預計聯邦基金利率將在 2024 年中期之前保持在 5.25% 至 5.5% 之間不變，屆時我們預計聯準會將開始降息。我們預計 2024 年將減少 75 個基點，其中 7 月、11 月和 12 月將減少 25 個基點。展望未來，我們對 2024 年全年業績與 2023 年業績的展望如下：我們預期現貨貸款成長 3% 至 4%，相當於平均貸款成長約 1%。

Total revenue to be stable to down 2%. Inside of that, our expectation is for net interest income to be down in the range of 4% to 5% and noninterest income to be up 4% to 6%. Core noninterest expenses to be stable, and we expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 18.5%. Our outlook for the first quarter of 2024 compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 is as follows: we expect average loans to be stable; net interest income to be down 2% to 3%; fee income to be down 6% to 8% due to seasonally lower first quarter client activity as well as elevated fourth quarter capital markets and advisory levels. Other noninterest income to be in the range of $150 million and $200 million, excluding Visa activity. Taking the component pieces of revenue together, we expect total revenue to be down 3% to 4%. We expect total core noninterest expense to be down 3% to 4%. We expect first quarter net charge-offs to be between $200 million and $250 million. And with that, Bill and I are ready to take your questions.

總收入穩定下降2%。其中，我們預期淨利息收入將下降4%至5%，非利息收入將增加4%至6%。核心非利息支出保持穩定，我們預計有效稅率約為 18.5%。我們對 2024 年第一季與 2023 年第四季相比的展望如下：我們預期平均貸款將保持穩定；淨利息收入下降2%至3%；由於第一季客戶活動季節性下降以及第四季資本市場和諮詢水準上升，費用收入將下降 6% 至 8%。其他非利息收入在 1.5 億至 2 億美元之間，不包括 Visa 活動。將各個收入組成部分放在一起，我們預計總收入將下降 3% 至 4%。我們預計核心非利息支出總額將下降 3% 至 4%。我們預計第一季淨沖銷額將在 2 億至 2.5 億美元之間。至此，比爾和我準備好回答你們的問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from John McDonald with Autonomous Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自自治研究中心的約翰·麥克唐納。

Wanted to ask Rob and Bill about the loan growth outlook for 2024, the spot guidance of up 3 to 4 percent seems a bit better than what we're seeing in H.8 currently. And I thought you could give some color on the drivers of your outlook there.

我想向 Rob 和 Bill 詢問 2024 年的貸款成長前景，成長 3% 到 4% 的現貨指引似乎比我們目前在 H.8 中看到的要好一些。我認為你可以對你的前景的驅動因素給出一些顏色。

Sure. John, it's Rob. Yes. On the outlook, so average loans up 1%, spot 3% to 4%, as you mentioned. We see most of that being on the commercial side and most of that being on the back end of the year. Consumer, we do have some growth throughout the year, but pretty modest.

當然。約翰，這是羅布。是的。就前景而言，正如您所提到的，平均貸款成長 1%，現貨貸款成長 3% 至 4%。我們認為其中大部分是在商業方面，而且大部分是在今年年底。消費者方面，我們全年確實有一些成長，但相當溫和。

Okay. And Rob, on the net interest income guidance, it sounds like you're assuming 3 rate cuts, a little bit less than what the forward curve has. Just kind of wondering what would be the sensitivity if the forward curve played out, we saw more rate cuts than what you're assuming. Is that helpful to the NII outlook, all else equal or relatively neutral? Could you update us on the sensitivity there, please?

好的。 Rob，關於淨利息收入指導，聽起來你假設降息 3 次，比遠期曲線的降息幅度要少一些。只是想知道如果遠期曲線發揮作用，敏感性會是多少，我們看到的降息幅度比您假設的要多。在其他條件相同或相對中性的情況下，這對 NII 前景有幫助嗎？您能為我們介紹一下那裡的敏感性嗎？

Sure, John. Yes, the short answer is it's relatively neutral because, as you know, we've worked hard to get our balance sheet into a neutral sensitivity position. So not a lot of variance in terms of the forwards and our own expectations in terms of the impact on NII. The big question, obviously, is going to be on deposit pricing and how that behaves as the year plays out, but we don't expect a lot of variance.

當然，約翰。是的，簡短的回答是它相對中性，因為如您所知，我們努力使我們的資產負債表處於中性敏感位置。因此，就對 NII 的影響而言，前鋒和我們自己的預期並沒有太大差異。顯然，最大的問題在於存款定價以及這一年的表現如何，但我們預計不會有太大差異。

Our next question comes from John Pancari with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 John Pancari。

On the capital markets revenue, the numbers certainly came in really solid this quarter. As you look into 2024 and in the context of your up 4% to 6% noninterest income guidance for the full year. How are you thinking about capital markets trajectory through the year off of this level?

就資本市場收入而言，本季的數字確實非常強勁。展望 2024 年，全年非利息收入指引將成長 4% 至 6%。您如何看待今年資本市場脫離這一水準的軌跡？

Yes. So with capital markets, we did get the rebound that we were expecting in the fourth quarter and the bulk of that is in our Harris Williams, our M&A advisory business. As far as '24 guidance goes, we expect the pipelines are good. We expect sort of the fourth quarter and the first quarter of '23 to be the range of what we would see on a quarterly basis going through in 2024. The anomalies were the soft quarters of Q2 and Q3 in 2023. So take a look at the first quarter of '23, the fourth quarter of '23, and that's the range of what we would expect the quarterly run rate to be through '24.

是的。因此，在資本市場方面，我們確實在第四季度實現了預期的反彈，其中大部分來自我們的併購顧問業務 Harris Williams。就 24 年指導而言，我們預計管道狀況良好。我們預計 23 年第四季和第一季將是我們在 2024 年按季度看到的範圍。異常情況是 2023 年第二季和第三季的疲軟季度。所以看看23 年第一季、23年第四季度，這就是我們預計24 年季度運行率的範圍。

Got it. All right.

知道了。好的。

I'll even help you there, John. It's up about 20% year-over-year. I'll save you the math there.

我甚至會幫你，約翰。年增約20%。我會在那裡保存你的數學知識。

Yes. All right. And then on the -- your guidance for 2024 implies about 100 basis points negative operating leverage using the midpoint of the guidance which actually screens relatively well versus your peers. How sustainable is that if the -- if the rate environment does not pan out as you're modeling and or better put, if your revenue outlook is worse? Do you think you can sustain at that expected negative 100 basis points operating leverage? Or could it be worse?

是的。好的。然後，您對 2024 年的指導意味著大約 100 個基點的負營運槓桿，使用指導的中點，該指導實際上與同行相比相對較好。如果——如果利率環境沒有像你建模的那樣成功，或者更準確地說，如果你的收入前景更糟，那麼永續性如何？您認為您能維持預期的負 100 個基點的營運槓桿嗎？或者情況會更糟嗎？

Look, we're fairly neutral to the -- for our NII forecast toward as a function of rate cuts or not. So the outcome ought to be the same.

看，我們對於 NII 預測與降息與否的關係持相當中立的態度。所以結果應該是一樣的。

Yes. Well, I would add to that, John. The -- so we worked hard. We took some actions to position ourselves to have stable expenses year-over-year. So that's a lot. And then as Bill pointed out on the revenue side, the NII is fairly predictable on a relative basis outside of rates and then the fees, we feel good about the guidance. So that's what we think is going to occur.

是的。好吧，我想補充一點，約翰。 - 所以我們努力工作。我們採取了一些行動來維持支出較去年同期穩定。這樣就很多了。然後，正如比爾在收入方面指出的那樣，國家資訊基礎設施在費率和費用之外的相對基礎上是相當可預測的，我們對指導感到滿意。這就是我們認為將會發生的情況。

I think if there's variance anywhere, it's going to be on our assumptions as it relates to deposit betas, the continued shift to interest-bearing versus noninterest-bearing and ultimately, the steepness of the yield curve, the rates at the long end of the curve as opposed to the front end of the curve. We've tried to be to the best of our ability a little bit on the conservative side of all of those things. And we feel pretty good about where our forecast is.

我認為，如果任何地方存在差異，那將取決於我們的假設，因為它與存款貝塔係數、計息與無息的持續轉變以及最終的收益率曲線的陡度、長期利率有關。曲線而不是曲線的前端。我們盡力在所有這些事情上保持保守一點。我們對我們的預測感到非常滿意。

Our next question comes from Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自斯科特·西弗斯和派珀·桑德勒。

I was hoping you might be able to share just some updated thoughts on sort of where and when NII might bottom. And I think perhaps more importantly, magnitude of rebound that I might see thereafter. I know you sort of suggested last month that NII ultimately could be a record in 2025. I guess I'd just be curious for any updated context around your thoughts there.

我希望您能夠分享一些關於 NII 何時何地觸底的最新想法。我認為也許更重要的是，此後我可能會看到反彈的幅度。我知道你上個月暗示 NII 最終可能會在 2025 年創下紀錄。我想我只是對你的想法的任何更新背景感到好奇。

Yes. Sure, Scott. Yes. So as we pointed out, we do see NII going down in the first half of the year, troughing around the time of the cuts and then growing from there and beyond. So think about where we are now, go down a bit and then grow back to where we are now. And then in 2025 what gives us a lot of confidence around record NII is we will get the compounded effect of the repricing of our fixed rate assets as that continues into '25. So that's what we laid out a month ago, and that's still what we think.

是的。當然，斯科特。是的。因此，正如我們所指出的，我們確實看到NII在今年上半年下降，在削減期間觸底，然後從那時起開始增長。所以想想我們現在在哪裡，先下降一點，然後再回到現在的位置。然後，到 2025 年，我們對創紀錄的 NII 充滿信心的是，隨著這種情況持續到 25 年，我們將獲得固定利率資產重新定價的複合效應。這就是我們一個月前製定的計劃，現在仍然是我們的想法。

Perfect. Okay. And then I guess just on the notion of deposit pricing. It sounds like you're expecting deposit cost to ease right around the time the Fed starts cutting. What's your sense for the sort of the pace of deposit betas on the way down vis-a-vis what they were on the way up?

完美的。好的。然後我想只是關於存款定價的概念。聽起來您預計存款成本會在聯準會開始降息時下降。您對存款貝塔係數下降與上升的速度有何看法？

Well, I would say on the commercial and the high (inaudible) side fast. And then we talked about on the consumer sort of the core consumer, we could -- and this is what Bill was alluding to there earlier, we could continue to see some drift up in rate paid even though we get some cuts. So that's a big variable, obviously, and we'll have to play it out.

好吧，我會說在商業和高端（聽不清楚）方面快。然後我們討論了核心消費者的消費者類型，我們可以 - 這就是比爾早些時候提到的，即使我們得到了一些削減，我們也可以繼續看到支付率上升。顯然，這是一個很大的變數，我們必須解決這個問題。

Our next question comes from Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的馬南·戈薩利亞。

Thanks for outlining the macro assumptions behind the outlook and I appreciate your comments on loan growth being more back-end loaded. But can you give us some more color on how you're thinking about it? Because you also mentioned a mild recession midyear. So is it really a big uptick in CNI in maybe like 4Q as rates begin to come down and as we come out of that mild recession? So I was hoping you could give us some more color on both commercial and consumer there.

感謝您概述了前景背後的宏觀假設，我感謝您對貸款成長更多後端負載的評論。但您能給我們更多關於您的想法嗎？因為你還提到年中出現了溫和的衰退。那麼，隨著利率開始下降以及我們走出溫和的衰退，CNI 真的會在第四季大幅上升嗎？所以我希望你能給我們更多有關商業和消費者方面的資訊。

So I would just say just to follow up on that. So yes, back half of the year on the commercial side, we see the uptick in the third and the fourth quarter. A big part of that being expected increase in utilization, which is a little bit lower right now and then just some pickup in general economic activity, not a lot, 3% to 4% spot to average up 1%. And then on the consumer, just sort of slow, steady growth, nothing big there, maybe a little bit more in card and auto and a little bit less in resi.

所以我只想說跟進一下。所以，是的，今年下半年商業方面，我們看到第三和第四季的成長。其中很大一部分是預期利用率的增加，目前利用率稍低一些，然後一般經濟活動會有所回升，但幅度不大，即 3% 到 4%，平均增長 1%。然後在消費者方面，只是緩慢、穩定的成長，沒有什麼大的成長，卡片和汽車方面可能會多一點，而電阻方面會少一點。

Got it. And then just on the credit side, last quarter you had some CRE loans move from criticized into NPLs. And it looks like things have been pretty steady this quarter on both criticized and NPLs. So do you think at this stage, you guys have scrubbed the books and it should remain steady over the next few quarters with just NCOs ticking up? Or is it likely to be lumpy? The question is more, given the new outlook for rates to come down, do you think the worst is behind us?

知道了。然後就信貸方面而言，上個季度，一些商業房地產貸款從受到批評轉為不良貸款。看起來本季的批評和不良貸款情況都相當穩定。那麼，您是否認為在現階段，您已經清理了帳簿，並且在接下來的幾個季度中應該保持穩定，只有士官人數有所增加？或者它可能是塊狀的嗎？問題是，考慮到利率下降的新前景，您認為最糟糕的時期已經過去了嗎？

Well, not on charge-offs. We think we're reserved correctly, but you have to remember that as these loans go to NPL and eventually, if we have charges against them, we'll charge them off. It won't run through P&L because we've already created a reserve for it, but the work set on actually maturing the loans and dealing with the outcome is yet to come.

嗯，不是沖銷。我們認為我們的保留是正確的，但你必須記住，當這些貸款進入不良貸款時，最終，如果我們對它們提出指控，我們會將它們沖銷。它不會貫穿損益表，因為我們已經為其創建了準備金，但真正使貸款到期並處理結果的工作尚未完成。

Yes. And I would just add to that. The key number to look at there is the criticized percentage, which has not changed much. To Bill's point, that's the first bucket. The movement of that to nonperforming or charge-offs will occur, but it's that criticized number, that's the key number.

是的。我想補充一點。需要關注的關鍵數字是受到批評的比例，而這個比例沒有太大變化。對比爾來說，這是第一個桶子。將會發生不良或沖銷的情況，但受到批評的數字才是關鍵數字。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Can you guys share with us -- you talked, Rob, about the commercial loan growth in the quarter when you ex out the Signature purchase was down slightly. I know you have prospects for growth here in 2024, as you pointed out. But can you share with us, do you guys see much competition from the private credit market, the private equity guys that have been much more aggressive recently in lending? And second, on part of that, do you have them as customers as well? So do you have to balance them as competitors as well as customers?

你們能否與我們分享一下——羅布，您談到了本季度的商業貸款增長，當您排除簽名購買略有下降時。正如您所指出的，我知道您在 2024 年有成長前景。但您能否與我們分享一下，您是否看到來自私人信貸市場的激烈競爭，以及最近在貸款方面更加積極的私募股權公司？其次，您是否也將他們視為客戶？那麼你必須平衡他們作為競爭對手和客戶的關係嗎？

We don't compete with them head-to-head with the types of loans that are typically and because we don't play that that much in the unsecured leverage space. Most of the decline at Signature we saw was in utilization.

我們不會與他們在通常的貸款類型上進行正面競爭，因為我們在無擔保槓桿領域的業務並不多。我們看到 Signature 的下降主要是利用率的下降。

And some seasonal.

還有一些季節性的。

Yes, as we go forward, more and more of the lending markets are moving into private hands and longer term that is of a concern if they kind of move up scale in what they do. We do serve them. I would say that our client base with just call it, private equity or private managers at large, they're probably our largest clients between what we do with and for them from Harris Williams and Solebury and business credit and treasury management with their portfolio companies and on and on and on. So they are good clients. And I guess, at the margin, we could end up competing with them in certain things.

是的，隨著我們的前進，越來越多的貸款市場正在進入私人手中，從長遠來看，如果它們擴大其業務規模，就會令人擔憂。我們確實為他們服務。我想說的是，我們的客戶群，即私募股權或整個私人經理人，他們可能是我們最大的客戶，我們與哈里斯威廉斯和索爾伯里為他們合作，以及商業信貸和財務管理及其投資組合公司等等。所以他們是好客戶。我想，在某種程度上，我們最終可能會在某些事情上與他們競爭。

But not so much today.

但今天沒那麼多。

Yes.

是的。

I see. Okay. And then, Rob, the follow-up with your comments you gave us the Visa ownership and the unrealized gain. If I recall correctly, I think first quarter of '24 the owners of those shares are permitted to monetize that. Can you give us share of your updated thoughts on what you guys are thinking with your position in Visa.

我懂了。好的。然後，Rob，您給我們的 Visa 所有權和未實現收益的評論的後續內容。如果我沒記錯的話，我認為 24 年第一季這些股票的所有者被允許將其貨幣化。您能否向我們分享您對 Visa 職位的最新想法？

Yes, sure, Gerard. So our position is -- we have $1.5 billion in unrealized gains, 3.5 million B shares. As you pointed out, there's a vote by the Visa shareholders at the end of this month to approve an action to enable the B holders to monetize maybe up to 50%. So we don't control that. We see when the vote is scheduled, should it be approved, then we'll move forward with our monetization plans that would be allowed under whatever is approved.

是的，當然，傑拉德。所以我們的立場是──我們有 15 億美元的未實現收益，350 萬股 B 股。正如您所指出的，Visa 股東將在本月底進行投票，批准一項行動，使 B 持有者能夠將高達 50% 的股份貨幣化。所以我們無法控制這一點。我們看看投票何時安排，如果獲得批准，那麼我們將推進我們的貨幣化計劃，無論批准的是什麼，都將允許該計劃。

Our next question comes from Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的比爾·卡卡什。

Following up on credit, if we play out what the soft landing scenario could look like and the Fed starts cutting rates in mid-24, would you expect to be in a position to possibly start releasing reserves? Or are the sort of likely to still be late cycle concerns that would lead you to want to maintain the reserve levels that you've already established?

信貸方面，如果我們設想軟著陸情景，並且聯準會在 24 月中旬開始降息，您是否預計能夠開始釋放準備金？或者是否有可能仍然是周期後期的擔憂，導致您想要維持已經建立的儲備水準？

Bill, it's Rob. So first, our reserves are appropriate for what we expect to occur. So that's number one. Number two, if things should substantially improve, yes, sure. We're running at 1.7% right now, which historically is on the high side. So if things normalize out in your definition of normal, we could be lower.

比爾，這是羅布。因此，首先，我們的儲備適合我們預期發生的情況。所以這是第一。第二，如果情況應該有實質改善，是的，當然。我們現在的利率是 1.7%，從歷史上看是偏高的。因此，如果事情按照您對正常的定義正常化，我們的水平可能會更低。

Got it. And then, Bill, following up on your comment about feeling good about your reserve levels, but that we haven't necessarily seen peak charge-off rates yet. If we were to go down the mild recession scenario path, should we expect there to be some lag between when those charge-offs would actually hit the P&L and when the corresponding reserves would get released? Or would the releases kind of occur concurrent with the increase in charge-offs?

知道了。然後，比爾，跟進您的評論，即對您的準備金水平感覺良好，但我們還不一定看到峰值沖銷率。如果我們要沿著溫和的衰退情景前進，我們是否應該預期這些沖銷實際影響損益表的時間與相應準備金釋放的時間之間會有一些延遲？或者這些釋放會與沖銷的增加同時發生？

So remember, the charge-offs don't hit P&L. There seems to be a lot of confusion on that. The provisions we take hit P&L, and we've provided for our best expectation of future charge-offs in a scenario that assumes a mild recession. So if our scenario comes true, we're fully reserved for everything that might happen to us. Charge-offs will flow through, but not hit our P&L because they're effectively neutralized against the debit to the provision.

因此請記住，沖銷不會影響損益。對此似乎有很多困惑。我們採取的準備金計入損益表，並且在假設出現溫和衰退的情況下，我們為未來沖銷的最佳預期提供了準備。因此，如果我們的設想成真，我們就完全可以應對可能發生在我們身上的一切。沖銷將流過去，但不會影響我們的損益表，因為它們被有效地抵消了準備金的借方。

Understood.

明白了。

That's worth pointing out. That's worth pointing out.

這點值得指出。這點值得指出。

There always seems to be some confusion on that. But do you -- does that make sense?

對此似乎總是有些困惑。但你覺得這有意義嗎？

Yes. No, I understand. I guess where I was going with that is that some have sort of alluded to you allowing as if the credit environment does indeed deteriorate, allowing some of those losses to flow through without necessarily releasing reserves. And so even though they've established reserves, they would kind of maintain those reserves and allow the higher charge-offs to flow through before ultimately releasing. And I was just hoping to get your thoughts on kind of the timing of those different pieces.

是的。不，我明白。我想我的意思是，有些人暗示你允許信貸環境確實惡化，允許其中一些損失轉移，而不必釋放準備金。因此，即使他們已經建立了儲備，他們也會維持這些儲備，並在最終釋放之前允許更高的沖銷。我只是希望了解您對這些不同作品的時間表的想法。

So it's a mechanical calculation that's dependent on our view of the economy at the time. So if you got to a place where the charge-offs occur and somehow we thought the economy was worse than our current expectation, we would be providing for the remainder of the portfolio at a higher level than we are today, right? But right now, we don't expect that to happen. So if the economy is worse, simply put, if the economy is worse than a mild recession, then you would expect our total reserve to increase.

所以這是一個機械計算，取決於我們對當時經濟的看法。因此，如果你到了一個發生沖銷的地方，並且我們認為經濟狀況比我們當前的預期更糟糕，我們將以比現在更高的水平為投資組合的其餘部分提供資金，對吧？但目前，我們預計不會發生這種情況。因此，如果經濟狀況更糟，簡單地說，如果經濟狀況比輕度衰退更糟糕，那麼您會期望我們的總儲備會增加。

Because it's forward-looking per CECL.

因為根據 CECL，它具有前瞻性。

Understood. And if I could squeeze in one last one on capital return. I appreciate Slide 19. Can you speak to how you're thinking about that 150 basis point impact from Basel III endgame in light of some of the pushback that it's received. And is that 8.2% a level you'd feel comfortable running at? Or would you target a slightly higher buffer? And then sort of underlying all of that, are you thinking -- how are you thinking about buybacks in light of all the moving pieces?

明白了。如果我能在資本回報方面擠出最後一筆。我很欣賞幻燈片 19。您能否談談您如何看待《巴塞爾協議 III》最終階段所產生的 150 個基點的影響，因為它收到了一些阻力。 8.2% 是您跑步時感到舒適的程度嗎？還是您的目標是稍高一點的緩衝區？然後，在所有這一切的基礎上，你是否在想——鑑於所有的變化，你如何考慮回購？

We'll answer the easy question first. 8.2 would be too low, I think, in this new environment, assuming Basel III endgame goes. So we'd run some higher number than that for certain. There does appear to be substantial commentary on the proposal such that I would expect that if it isn't reproposed, there still would be some relief in certain asset categories and risk-weighted assets and maybe on operating risk capital, we'll see. Having said that, we don't know. So at the moment, what we know is we're going to continue to grow earnings. We're going to accrete AOCI back into our capital base, and we're going to pull that 8.2% up. We think we have flexibility inside of that to be active in the share repurchase market between now and then and the more certainty we have, the more certain we'll be an explicit on what we might buy back during a given period of time.

我們先來回答這個簡單的問題。我認為，在這個新環境中，假設巴塞爾協議 III 終局順利進行，8.2 太低了。所以我們肯定會運行比這個更高的數字。該提案似乎確實有大量評論，因此我預計，如果不重新提案，某些資產類別和風險加權資產仍然會有所緩解，也許營運風險資本也會有所緩解，我們拭目以待。話雖如此，我們不知道。所以目前，我們知道我們的收入將繼續成長。我們將把 AOCI 重新納入我們的資本基礎，並將其提高 8.2%。我們認為，從現在到那時，我們有足夠的彈性在股票回購市場上保持活躍，而且我們的確定性越大，我們就越能明確我們在特定時期內可能回購的內容。

And I would just add to that. You saw we did -- we bought just under $100 million of -- sorry, share repurchases in the fourth quarter. In the first quarter, we would expect to do at least that, maybe a little bit more depending on market indications.

我想補充一點。你看到我們做了——我們買了不到 1 億美元——抱歉，第四季進行了股票回購。在第一季度，我們預計至少會做到這一點，根據市場跡象，可能會多一點。

Our next question comes from Erika Najarian with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的艾莉卡·納賈里安。

I just wanted to ask one follow-up question on NII, if I may. A lot of investors were really excited about the graphic that you put together at Goldman, the Nike Swish, if you will, that had sort of the first rate cut embedded under the Nike Swish, 25 basis points in 3Q '24. And I completely understand this is abstract in a way. But I just wanted to put together everything that you guys said. I think it surprises investors that when you overlay the forward curve that it is neutral to this outcome, at least for '24. But it's -- but just looking back at the slides, Rob, on Slide 6 of this earnings season, it does seem like a lot of your receipts fixed swaps don't really meaningfully mature until 4Q '24. So I guess, in terms of like the mechanical repricing that you keep talking about, the way to really ask this question is, it sounds like it is possible to have potentially a lower trough than people expected in '24 and still have that record net interest income in '25 because of those fixed rate dynamics. And who knows what can happen on the liability side and the deposit repricing side, if the Fed cuts sooner. But it feels like that swap maturity is part of why that Nike Swish could be steeper. Am I thinking about it the right way?

如果可以的話，我只是想問一個有關 NII 的後續問題。許多投資人對你在高盛製作的圖表感到非常興奮，Nike Swish，如果你願意的話，在 Nike Swish 下嵌入了第一次降息，24 年第三季降息 25 個基點。我完全理解這在某種程度上是抽象的。但我只是想把你們所說的一切放在一起。我認為讓投資者感到驚訝的是，當你疊加遠期曲線時，它對這個結果是中性的，至少在 24 年是如此。但這是 - 但只要回顧幻燈片，羅布，本財報季第 6 張幻燈片上的幻燈片，看起來確實很多固定掉期收益在 2024 年第四季度之前都沒有真正有意義地成熟。所以我想，就你一直在談論的機械重新定價而言，真正提出這個問題的方法是，聽起來有可能比人們在 24 年預期的低谷低，但仍然保持創紀錄的淨值由於這些固定利率動態，25 年的利息收入。如果聯準會更快降息，誰知道負債方面和存款重新定價方面會發生什麼。但感覺互換成熟度是 Nike Swish 可能更陡峭的部分原因。我的思考方式正確嗎？

I don't know that we expect it to be deeper. We purposely drew the line to be a little bit thick because we don't know exactly when that trough might occur. I think all of the commentary on '25 is in some ways, mechanical. We're simply taking our fixed rate assets and repricing them at market. And we know what the maturities of those assets are. So in short form, one of the reasons we highlight that and also show the steepness of the curve is our balance sheet, the fixed rate assets on our balance sheet are shorter than virtually all of our peers and at a yield level that is somewhat lower. So we have a big pickup in fixed rate earning yields sooner than I think the market expects, which is turn what gives rise to the slope of that curve, whether it troughs in the second quarter or the first week in the third quarter or the fourth week and -- who knows.

我不知道我們是否期望它會更深。我們故意把這條線畫得粗一些，因為我們不知道這個低潮何時會出現。我認為所有關於 25 的評論在某種程度上都是機械的。我們只是簡單地採用固定利率資產並在市場上重新定價。我們知道這些資產的期限是多少。簡而言之，我們強調這一點並顯示曲線陡峭的原因之一是我們的資產負債表，我們資產負債表上的固定利率資產比幾乎所有同業都短，而且收益率水平略低。因此，我們的固定利率收益率大幅回升的速度比我認為市場預期的要早，這正是導致該曲線斜率上升的原因，無論是第二季度的低谷還是第三季度的第一周或第四季度一周——誰知道呢。

I don't think it's the perfect timing, though that investors are worried about in terms of second quarter and third quarter. It's just that your new guidance would imply sort of after the first quarter, that your average NII would be like 3%, 3.7% or something like that, right? So to get to a record net interest income, it would have to be a pretty significant progression from there. So that's sort of -- I'm trying to set the stage for you guys to build that bridge because I think that investors really believe that you can reach that.

我認為這不是一個完美的時機，儘管投資者對第二季和第三季感到擔憂。只是你的新指導意味著在第一季之後，你的平均 NII 會是 3%、3.7% 或類似的數字，對嗎？因此，要達到創紀錄的淨利息收入，必須在此基礎上取得相當大的進展。所以這就是——我正在努力為你們搭建這座橋樑奠定基礎，因為我認為投資者真的相信你們能夠實現這一目標。

I think that if you want to call it the Swish, I think the Swish is still accurate. What else to say, it's consistent with our guidance. And it's still accurate.

我覺得如果要叫它Swish的話，我覺得Swish還是準的。還能說什麼，這與我們的指導一致。而且它仍然是準確的。

Our next question comes from Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

Just a follow-up on that swaps book on Page 6 of the deck. Couple of billion dollar decline in the receive fixed. Any changes this quarter, whether terminations or new adds? And any thoughts in terms of like how you change and utilize that in terms of last answer of trying to move that forward?

只是這本牌組第 6 頁上那本交換書的後續內容。收入下降了數十億美元。本季是否有任何變化，無論是終止還是新增？關於如何改變和利用它，以及試圖推動這一進程的最後一個答案，有什麼想法嗎？

I don't know that we had changes this quarter.

我不知道我們這個季度有什麼變化。

Going into Q1 '24. Is that the question, Ken?

進入 24 年第一季。這是問題嗎，肯？

You terminate any swaps this quarter and add any new and just kind of to remind us of the understanding of what's still yet to go after?

你們在本季度終止了所有互換，並添加了任何新的互換，只是為了提醒我們了解尚未實現的目標？

We terminated some. We added some net down. But that's all in the normal course.

我們終止了一些。我們添加了一些淨值。但這都是正常的過程。

I mean I think we're missing your question. What are you trying to get at.

我的意思是我認為我們錯過了你的問題。你想達到什麼目的。

Yes. I was just trying to get at just what changes you've made inside of the portfolio outside of the normal maturity schedule, which I think we see in the disclosures quarterly? Just wondering did you terminate swaps, did you add some new ones? And then just remind us about the way forward.

是的。我只是想了解您在正常到期時間表之外對投資組合內部進行了哪些更改，我認為我們在季度披露中看到了這些變化？只是想知道你是否終止了交換，是否添加了一些新的交換？然後提醒我們前進的道路。

We terminated 3.6 and added some. And just to remind you, when you terminate you basically lock that loss to the life of the original contract. And we'll do that at times simply to reposition where we have exposure.

我們終止了 3.6 並添加了一些。只是提醒您，當您終止時，您基本上將損失鎖定在原始合約的有效期內。有時我們會這樣做，只是為了重新定位我們的曝光位置。

Yes. Exactly. Okay. Got it. Second question, just on the fee outlook. Good to see, first of all, in the fourth quarter, the capital markets improvement that you saw. Just wondering how much of a driver is that of your expected fee growth next year, your pipelines in Harris Williams, et cetera? And what other pieces do you expect to see growth in this year?

是的。確切地。好的。知道了。第二個問題，關於費用前景。首先，很高興看到第四季資本市場的改善。只是想知道您明年的預期費用增長、您在哈里斯威廉姆斯的管道等的推動力有多大？您預計今年還有哪些產品會成長？

Yes, Ken, just as I said earlier, on the capital markets, a nice rebound in our Harris Williams activity. Pipelines are good. They support year-over-year growth of close to 20%, which is what I mentioned earlier. In terms of the other fee categories, asset management flattish up a bit, that will be market-dependent. Card and cash management up low to mid-single digits. Lending and deposit services, that will be down mid-single digits, and that's reflective of anticipated lower service charges on deposits. There was a number of items that we did in '23 to reduce overdraft charges for our clients, so that's good for our clients, but that will be some lower fees, about mid-single digit down. And then mortgage outside of hedge gains, flattish, down if you include the hedge gains.

是的，肯，正如我之前所說，在資本市場上，我們的哈里斯威廉斯活動出現了良好的反彈。管道狀況良好。他們支持接近 20% 的同比增長，這就是我之前提到的。就其他費用類別而言，資產管理費用略有上升，這將取決於市場。卡和現金管理上升到低至中個位數。貸款和存款服務將下降中個位數，這反映了存款服務費的預期下降。我們在 23 年採取了許多措施來減少客戶的透支費用，這對我們的客戶有好處，但費用會降低一些，大約下降個位數。然後，如果包括對沖收益，則在對沖收益之外進行抵押貸款，持平，下降。

Our next question comes from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克梅奧。

Bill, December 5, your (inaudible) words. I quote, "skill matters today more than it ever has prior to March and the mini crisis. We knew the technology mattered. We knew scale and brand mattered to just eliminated tailoring and regulation for all intents and purposes", et cetera, et cetera. You just go on to say that this will never be reversed. Scale is more important than ever. I could give the whole speech, but it was -- it seemed like a passioned speech, more than I've ever heard you say before. So why now? And along those lines, I mean, if you had better scale when you get positive operating leverage in 2024, with a chance you could do that. But I think you're talking further out. I think you're talking about organic and maybe inorganic expansion, but help me out there, if you could.

Bill，12 月 5 日，您的（聽不清楚）的話。我引用的話，“今天的技能比三月和小危機之前更重要。我們知道技術很重要。我們知道規模和品牌很重要，可以消除所有意圖和目的的定制和監管”，等等，等等。你只是繼續說這永遠不會逆轉。規模比以往任何時候都更重要。我可以發表整個演講，但這似乎是一場充滿熱情的演講，比我以前聽過的你說的還要激烈。那為什麼現在呢？沿著這些思路，我的意思是，如果你在 2024 年獲得正營運槓桿時能夠更好地擴大規模，那麼你就有機會做到這一點。但我認為你說得更遠了。我認為你正在談論有機擴張，也許還有無機擴張，但如果可以的話，請幫助我。

No, I was. Look, if you just look back at what happened this year on top of kind of 8 or 9 years of history post the financial crisis. We've seen your words Goliath win in terms of organic deposit share growth. That trend line has accelerated as a function of the mini crisis in March, where corporates bluntly don't necessarily trust the regulatory environment to ensure that their deposits at a bank are safe. And so we've seen those deposits flow uphill. And if you aren't a primary relationship with that corporate deeply embedded with treasury management and other services you net-net lose corporate deposits.

不，我是。看看，如果你回顧今年在金融危機後八、九年的歷史中發生的事情。我們已經看到您的話歌利亞在有機存款份額增長方面獲勝。由於三月的小危機，這一趨勢線有所加速，企業坦率地並不相信監管環境能夠確保其在銀行的存款安全。所以我們看到這些存款向上流動。如果您不是該公司的主要關係，該公司深深嵌入財務管理和其他服務，您將淨損失公司存款。

I think when you combine that with the cost of technology, the removal of some of the tiering and regulation and capital requirements and liquidity, scale matters. I think we are -- on net benefited from the mini crisis, but just barely -- and I think below us, people struggle with that conversation with corporate clients. Above us, perhaps it's easy. But I think we need to move into that next level such that we are seeing coast-to-coast is a ubiquitous standard brand, with the quasi support that the giant banks have in terms of times of crisis. I think it's critical.

我認為，當你將其與技術成本、取消一些分層和監管以及資本要求和流動性結合起來時，規模就很重要了。我認為我們在網路上從這場小型危機中受益，但只是勉強受益，而且我認為在我們下面，人們在與企業客戶的對話中遇到困難。在我們之上，也許這很容易。但我認為我們需要進入下一個階段，這樣我們就可以看到從東海岸到西海岸是一個無處不在的標準品牌，並在危機時期得到大型銀行的準支持。我認為這是關鍵。

So what does that mean? Okay, so you've identified the need and desire. So what does that mean? Does it mean...

那麼這是什麼意思呢？好的，您已經確定了需求和願望。那麼這是什麼意思呢？是不是意味著...

Yes. So naturally, over time, we are gaining share on our newer markets at a rapid pace. And we see that client acquisition and growth in all forms from deposits to loans to fees to so forth. I think through time, you're going to see a clear differentiation of this dynamic played out across the market. I think there's going to be banks that are looking for strong partners, and I think we are a strong partner. I'm not going to force that issue. But I think longer term, we are a natural player in the consolidation of an industry where scale matters.

是的。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們自然會在新市場上快速獲得份額。我們看到從存款到貸款到費用等各種形式的客戶獲取和成長。我認為隨著時間的推移，你會看到這種動態在整個市場上出現明顯的差異。我認為將會有銀行正在尋找強大的合作夥伴，我認為我們是一個強大的合作夥伴。我不會強迫這個問題。但我認為從長遠來看，我們是規模重要的產業整合中的天然參與者。

And if you can't get the deals done, you've been opportunistic with National City and et cetera, since then, organic ubiquity, how can you get there? Do we start seeing you advertise during the Super Bowl, do you double or triple your marketing spend? What do you do then?

如果你無法完成交易，你就一直在納欣諾城等地投機取巧，從那時起，有機無處不在，你怎麼能到達那裡呢？我們是否在超級盃期間開始看到您做廣告？您的行銷支出是否增加了一倍或三倍？那你怎麼辦呢？

You just have to execute. I mean there's a -- which simplifies the process. If you think about what's happening in the banking industry today, there's a couple -- ignore some other issues with the large banks. But on the deposit share side, there's a couple of clear winners. There's one that probably should be over time. There's some people neutral and there's people losing. There's 5,000 banks in the country that I can take from and grow, right? That's just a longer period of time, which we will pursue than what we might see if there's inorganic opportunities when people come to the realization that they're kind of riding something down in a deteriorating franchise. I can -- I can see the trends. I know how we would react to opportunities and the trends. I know what we'll do to execute on our own, and I'm confident in that, but go all the way back, scale matters. We're going to have to play that (inaudible).

你只需要執行。我的意思是有一個——可以簡化這個過程。如果你想想當今銀行業正在發生的事情，你會發現有兩個問題——忽略大型銀行的其他一些問題。但在存款份額方面，有幾個明顯的贏家。有一個可能應該隨著時間的推移而出現。有的人保持中立，有的人失敗。這個國家有 5,000 家銀行可供我借鏡和發展，對嗎？這只是一個更長的時間，我們將追求的時間比我們可能看到的時間更長，如果人們意識到他們在不斷惡化的特許經營權中遇到了一些困難，那麼就會出現無機機會。我可以——我可以看到趨勢。我知道我們將如何應對機會和趨勢。我知道我們要自己執行什麼，對此我很有信心，但回過頭來看，規模很重要。我們將不得不玩這個（聽不清楚）。

Just one follow-up. I got several e-mails from people saying, "Well, I don't know if I want to own PNC stock because I'm afraid of what kind of deal they might do." What do you say to that?

只是一個後續行動。我收到了幾封人們發來的電子郵件，他們說：“嗯，我不知道我是否想擁有 PNC 股票，因為我擔心他們可能會做什麼樣的交易。”你對那個有什麼想法？

I think they should look at our history is my simplest explanation. I think somebody asked that question once before, and I assure everybody, I still know how to do math and I think the opportunities will come our way. I don't think we'll have to chase them. One of the reasons people say why am I as vocal about this as I am. And part of the reason is to make the public aware, the public being regulators, politicians, boards of other banks aware of what's happening in the banking industry and the need for consolidation. It doesn't mean I'm going to do something stupid in the pursuit of it. I just think it's going to happen.

我認為他們應該看看我們的歷史，這是我最簡單的解釋。我想以前有人問過這個問題，我向大家保證，我仍然知道如何做數學，我認為機會將會降臨到我們身上。我認為我們不必追趕他們。人們說為什麼我如此直言不諱的原因之一。部分原因是為了讓公眾意識到，公眾，即監管者、政治家、其他銀行的董事會，了解銀行業正在發生的事情以及整合的必要性。這並不意味著我會為了追求它而做一些愚蠢的事情。我只是認為這將會發生。

Our next question comes from Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess just maybe one to follow up on your discussion with Mike, around M&A. I guess, do you think the regulatory backdrop today is conducive for doing M&A? Or do we need a very different sort of DOJ just philosophical approach towards larger bank deals before we could see a pickup in deal activity.

我想也許只是跟進您與邁克圍繞併購進行的討論。我想，您認為現在的監管背景是否有利於併購？或者，在我們看到交易活動有所回升之前，我們是否需要司法部對大型銀行交易採取非常不同的哲學方法。

I don't think there's a simple answer to that because I think if you listen carefully to the various speeches that have been done that they'll talk about the recognition of the need for M&A, but they'll also talk about good mergers and bad mergers, good outcomes and bad outcomes along several metrics. So put differently, I think certain deals will get approved and others wouldn't. I think we have proven as an acquirer that we know what we're doing and that the result in institution is, in fact, stronger than the one we might acquire.

我認為對此沒有一個簡單的答案，因為我認為如果你仔細聆聽已經進行的各種演講，他們會談論對併購必要性的認識，但他們也會談論良好的合併和根據幾個指標，有糟糕的合併、好的結果和壞的結果。換句話說，我認為某些交易會獲得批准，而其他交易則不會。我認為，作為收購方，我們已經證明我們知道自己在做什麼，而機構的結果實際上比我們可能收購的結果更強。

Understood. And I guess just taking a step back around your view around the mild recession, I'm just wondering how much of that is just theoretical informing your reserving model versus the weakness that you are seeing across your customers and that leads you to believe that we will have a recession in the middle of the year. Because once we go down that path, who knows how bad things could get. So I just would love to hear whether the recession assumption is just your conservatism? Or are you seeing weakness across your customers?

明白了。我想退一步討論您對溫和衰退的看法，我只是想知道其中有多少只是理論上的信息，告訴您的預訂模型與您在客戶中看到的弱點相比，這讓您相信我們年中將出現衰退。因為一旦我們走上這條路，誰知道事情會變得多糟。所以我很想聽聽經濟衰退的假設是否只是你的保守？或者您發現客戶有弱點？

It's not -- I mean you see the credit metrics, it's not a concern in terms of customers. We've seen with the margin -- profit margins decrease with certain clients. If you look at soft inputs, surveys and so forth that are coming out of the Fed districts, the economy is definitely weakening, not at a alarming pace. It's kind of what we had expected given how tight the Fed has gotten with monetary policy. So we kind of see a mild recession. We actually see employment remaining strong through that, which ultimately is the thing that keeps the economy from going deeply into recession, just the strength of the labor market and consumer spending. So this is kind of following the path of what we thought for some period of time now.

這不是——我的意思是你看到了信用指標，這不是客戶關心的問題。我們已經看到某些客戶的利潤率下降。如果你看一下來自聯準會地區的軟投入、調查等，你會發現經濟肯定正在疲軟，但速度並沒有達到驚人的程度。考慮到聯準會貨幣政策的收緊程度，這符合我們的預期。所以我們看到了溫和的衰退。事實上，我們看到就業仍然強勁，最終是防止經濟陷入深度衰退的因素，那就是勞動市場和消費者支出的強勁。所以這有點遵循我們一段時間以來的想法。

Got it. And one quick follow-up. Yes, go ahead.

知道了。還有一個快速跟進。好，去吧。

I was just going to add to that to Bill's. I mean, we can have a slowdown continue and technically hit a recession without adding a whole lot of credit risk or increased credit structure.

我只是想將其添加到比爾的內容中。我的意思是，我們可以繼續經濟放緩，並在技術上陷入衰退，而無需增加大量信貸風險或增加信貸結構。

Understood. And just one thing, Rob, you mentioned that you expect noninterest-bearing deposits to stabilize from here. Just playing devil's advocate, why should they stabilize from here? If rates remain if we are in a 3%-plus Fed funds world, should we not expect the mix of deposits to move towards interest-bearing towards more CDs? Or is your view different?

明白了。羅布，只有一件事，您提到您預計無息存款將從此穩定下來。唱反調而已，憑什麼要從這裡穩定下來？如果利率保持在 3% 以上的聯邦基金世界中，我們難道不應該期望存款組合會轉向計息並轉向更多 CD 嗎？還是你的看法不同？

Well, I think obviously, we've been watching that for the better part of the year here in terms of the decline in noninterest-bearing in absolute terms and relative percentages. Why we think it's largely happened is because it's been so long. And much of that base is our businesses and individuals that run on noninterest-bearing deposits. So they're not necessarily shopping for a higher rate. There's something around the institution in terms of they pay for their services through deposits or on the consumer side, small transaction accounts.

嗯，我認為顯然，我們今年大部分時間都在關注無息絕對值和相對百分比的下降。為什麼我們認為這在很大程度上已經發生了，因為它已經過去了很長時間。其中大部分基礎是我們依靠無利息存款運作的企業和個人。因此，他們不一定會以更高的價格購買。該機構透過存款或在消費者方面透過小額交易帳戶支付服務費用。

Our next question comes from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

Just wondering your thoughts on kind of medium-term loan growth, a bit of a bigger picture question. You obviously gave details for this year. But as you think out like the next couple of years, are you in the camp that there needs to be some structural deleveraging. So loan growth might be below GDP or where normally it would be? Or just any thoughts that you have on that effect?

只是想知道您對中期貸款成長的看法，這是一個更大的問題。您顯然提供了今年的詳細資訊。但當你思考未來幾年時，你是否同意需要進行一些結構性去槓桿化？那麼貸款成長可能低於 GDP 或正常情況下的水平？或者您對此效果有什麼想法嗎？

I mean I don't think there's going to be any structural delevering here. We're obviously seeing a lot of banks kind of on my prior point, coming to the conclusion that some of the ancillary lending activities they took on, on the back of the big stimulus don't make sense anymore. So there's deleveraging maybe across the industry by certain groups, but not here.

我的意思是，我認為這裡不會出現任何結構性去槓桿化。顯然，我們看到許多銀行都同意我先前的觀點，得出的結論是，他們在大規模刺激措施的支持下所進行的一些輔助貸款活動不再有意義。因此，某些群體可能在整個行業中進行去槓桿化，但這裡不是。

And I guess I've met from customers, right? Look, even if rates go down a little bit, they're still structurally a lot higher than they've been for the last almost 15 years. So if you just think about like the lending demand that's out there. Obviously, there's lots of factors. But just thoughts on if higher rate structure have a meaningful impact on that.

我想我已經見過客戶了，對吧？看，即使利率略有下降，但從結構上看，它們仍然比過去近 15 年的水平要高得多。因此，如果您考慮現有的貸款需求。顯然，有很多因素。但只是想一下更高的利率結構是否會對此產生有意義的影響。

Sorry, on loan growth?

抱歉，關於貸款成長？

Correct. Right, as you think about corporate borrowers, right, they just can't afford potentially to borrow as much with rates higher. Obviously, the same for consumer mortgage is the most obvious. So thinking more like on the commercial side.

正確的。是的，當你想到企業借款人時，他們就是無法承受利率較高的潛在藉款。顯然，消費抵押貸款的情況最為明顯。所以更像是從商業角度思考。

Well, I think at the end of the day, our generic corporate client needs to redo their facilities and the price has gone up and that will occur. I think some of the activity that we saw on the back of just really low cost of capital in the private equity markets where kind of leverage is free, that's going to go by the wayside at a higher rate environment. But if you look at the composition of our book, we're kind of the bread and butter of America. So I wouldn't expect that we would necessarily see a decline in loan growth simply because the front end of the SOFR rate is higher.

好吧，我認為最終，我們的通用企業客戶需要重做他們的設施，而價格已經上漲，這種情況將會發生。我認為，我們在私募股權市場的資本成本非常低的情況下看到的一些活動，其中槓桿是免費的，在較高的利率環境下，這些活動將被擱置。但如果你看看我們這本書的組成，你會發現我們是美國的麵包和奶油。因此，我並不認為僅僅因為 SOFR 利率前端較高，我們必然會看到貸款成長下降。

Our next question comes from Dave Rochester with Compass Point.

我們的下一個問題來自 Compass Point 的 Dave Rochester。

Just back on the M&A discussion. I know you mentioned building in a bigger buffer than that 8.2% you have on your adjusted CET1 ratio today. But is the plan to also maybe retain more capital than you normally would to better position you for taking advantage of any inorganic opportunities, which might keep the buyback activity more muted this year? Just curious to get your thoughts there, how you might balance that.

回到併購討論。我知道您提到要建立比今天調整後的 CET1 比率 8.2% 更大的緩衝。但該計劃是否也可能保留比平常更多的資本，以便更好地利用任何無機機會，這可能會使今年的回購活動更加溫和？只是想知道你的想法，你如何平衡它。

Well, there -- I mean both of those thoughts are consistent. 8.2% is too low, so we're going to grow. Whether we're growing to be in faster compliance or growing because maybe something shows up where we could use some, we're still going to grow and it's going to mute our capital return below it, it otherwise might be absent the Basel III endgame changes.

嗯，我的意思是這兩個想法是一致的。 8.2% 太低了，所以我們要成長。無論我們是為了更快地合規而成長，還是因為可能出現一些我們可以使用的東西而成長，我們仍然會成長，這將使我們的資本回報率低於它，否則可能會缺席巴塞爾協議III的結局變化。

Okay. So you would expect buyback activity maybe to remain muted for the rest of the year, not just the first quarter.

好的。因此，您預計回購活動可能在今年剩餘時間內保持平靜，而不僅僅是第一季。

There's too much up in the air. I mean, it's depending what the Fed does, look, they could have to repropose that. It could go through the elections, they could change it materially. We don't know, right? All we know is all else equal, 8.2% is probably too low. We're still burning through our AOCI. We don't think that's going to change. So we stated course and we'll adapt based on what we learn.

懸而未決的事情太多了。我的意思是，這取決於聯準會的行動，看起來，他們可能不得不重新提出這項建議。它可以通過選舉，他們可以對其進行重大改變。我們不知道，對吧？我們所知道的是，在其他條件相同的情況下，8.2% 可能太低了。我們的 AOCI 仍在燃燒。我們認為這不會改變。所以我們規定了路線，我們將根據我們學到的知識進行調整。

Okay. And then back on your deposit betas you're assuming in the guide, are you thinking you can move those commercial rates down materially more like right out of the gate with the first cut? Or are you baking in some sort of a lag at least for the first couple of cuts.

好的。然後回到您在指南中假設的存款貝塔值，您是否認為您可以大幅降低這些商業利率，就像第一次降息一樣？或至少在前幾次切割中您是否有某種滯後。

It'd be pretty fast.

會很快的。

Our next question comes from Vivek Juneja with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Vivek Juneja。

We do have a question from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

我們確實收到了富國銀行邁克梅奧 (Mike Mayo) 的提問。

Just a follow-up on your commercial loan growth, like why you're punching your weight in the growth rate? And which areas of commercial loan growth and I know you've deployed teams to all these cities near the Nashville Main Street Bank and you're trying to gain share and all that. Is it that effort the market share by city? Is it kind of smaller middle market? Is it that effect you talked about scale versus the smaller competitors? I mean how much we put in each bucket as far as your delta versus peer when it comes to commercial loan growth?

只是您商業貸款成長的後續行動，例如為什麼要大力提高成長率？我知道商業貸款增長的哪些領域您已經在納什維爾大街銀行附近的所有這些城市部署了團隊，並且您正試圖獲得份額等等。是為了各城市的市佔率而努力嗎？這是一個較小的中間市場嗎？這就是您談到的規模經濟與規模較小的競爭對手之間的效應嗎？我的意思是，就商業貸款成長而言，我們在每個桶中投入了多少資金，與同行相比？

Look, I would tell you that we're winning more than we're losing on pitches. And that's more true today than it was pre-March. We're winning at a higher percentage just because there's more shots on goal in the new markets than we are in the old markets. So the growth there is higher, and that's -- those new markets and the fact that we have them fully staffed, including products might differentiates us in a world where total loan growth may be somewhat tepid. And importantly, we've said this for years as we go into new markets, we are not leading with credit in these new markets. Fee-based growth actually outpaces our loan-based growth in those markets as we cross-sell into TM and other products and services. So we look at pipelines, we look at line of sight into what we have in each market. I don't know that there's any particular product that stands out as something that's growing faster than another one. It's just we're winning clients.

聽著，我會告訴你，我們在球場上贏的比輸的多。今天比三月前更是如此。我們的獲勝率更高，只是因為新市場的射門次數比舊市場的射門次數多。因此，那裡的成長更高，也就是說，這些新市場以及我們為這些市場配備齊全的人員（包括產品）的事實可能會使我們在總貸款成長可能有些不溫不火的世界中脫穎而出。重要的是，多年來，當我們進入新市場時，我們已經說過這​​一點，我們在這些新市場中並沒有以信用領先。由於我們交叉銷售 TM 及其他產品和服務，這些市場中基於費用的成長實際上超過了基於貸款的成長。因此，我們著眼於管道，我們著眼於我們在每個市場上擁有的東西。我不知道有什麼特定產品比其他產品成長得更快。只是我們正在贏得客戶。

How much -- last follow-up. How much faster would your commercial loan growth be if there were no private capital competitors right now?

多少——最後一次跟進。如果現在沒有私人資本競爭對手，你們的商業貸款成長會快多少？

I think the only way that impacts us directly. I mean that the margin may be something in business credit. And as you know, we partner with a lot of the private credit guys inside of that business. And then to the extent companies are taken private, which I think is going to slow down given the cost of capital, we sometimes will lose a client to a leverage lender because they were taken private. But that's kind of...

我認為這是直接影響我們的唯一方式。我的意思是，保證金可能是商業信用的一部分。如您所知，我們與該行業內的許多私人信貸人員合作。然後，在公司被私有化的情況下，考慮到資本成本，我認為私有化的速度將會放緩，我們有時會因為槓桿貸款機構被私有化而失去客戶。但這有點...

A structure -- that's it right -- that would be the margin. If that wasn't available that would otherwise be a conventional loan.

一個結構——沒錯——那就是邊際。如果沒有的話，那就是傳統貸款。

And we have a question from Vivek Juneja with JPMorgan.

我們有來自摩根大通的 Vivek Juneja 的問題。

Bill, question for you. I mean when your deposits as the Fed keeps growing, at what point are you thinking about putting some of that or locking some of the yields on that? What's your thinking there, especially given all your other commentary about rates peaking, mild recession, loan growth, et cetera, triangulating all of those factors?

比爾，問你一個問題。我的意思是，當你作為聯準會的存款持續成長時，你在什麼時候考慮投入其中一部分或鎖定部分收益率？您對此有何想法，特別是考慮到您對利率見頂、溫和衰退、貸款成長等所有其他評論，對所有這些因素進行三角測量？

Well, in the near term, we think the market's got ahead of itself. I think until we're clear of the outcome here or clear inflation and Fed actions, we're happy to kind of stay neutral. I think my own expectation here, Vivek, is notwithstanding what the Fed does through the course of '24 with the Fed funds rate. My expectation is you're not going to see a lot of action in the longer rate simply because of the supply calendar and the fact that inflation will have a tail and while the Fed could ease somewhat, I think inflation is still going to be running against versus their goal. We'll have a lot of issues. So long story short, we don't see a burning desire to put money to work here because we think that opportunity is going to remain and the durations we typically invest in and probably get a little bit better just given how hot the market got post the last Fed meeting.

嗯，從短期來看，我們認為市場有些超前了。我認為，在我們明確結果或明確通膨和聯準會行動之前，我們很樂意保持中立。 Vivek，我認為我自己的期望是，不管聯準會在 24 年期間如何調整聯邦基金利率。我的預期是，由於供應日曆和通膨將有尾巴這一事實，你不會看到長期利率有太多行動，儘管美聯儲可能會有所放鬆，但我認為通膨仍將持續反對他們的目標。我們會有很多問題。長話短說，我們沒有看到投資在這裡的強烈願望，因為我們認為機會仍然存在，而且考慮到市場的火熱程度，我們通常投資的期限可能會變得更好一些上次美聯儲會議。

And second one, you talked about a lot of companies going into private hands and obviously, that creating competition from private credit for loans. But on the other hand, you've got increasing capital requirements so which is translating into higher spreads, so as to maintain returns. How do you balance that out, on the one hand, not losing share to the private market and on the other hand, maintaining that? Do you see -- given that, do you see spreads staying high? Or do you think that turns course the other way?

第二個問題，您談到許多公司進入私人手中，顯然，這造成了私人信貸對貸款的競爭。但另一方面，你的資本需求不斷增加，這會轉化為更高的利差，以維持回報。您如何平衡這一點，一方面不失去私人市場的份額，另一方面保持這一份額？有鑑於此，您是否認為利差維持在高位？還是你認為事情會走向相反的方向？

So again, we're kind of talking about 2 different universes of credit. But having said that, I'm sure you've heard this inside of your own shop. Lending money for the sake of lending money doesn't give us an adequate return on capital. Didn't before, it doesn't now. What gives us a return on capital is the relationship, the annuity-like fees you get from TM, the additive fees you get from capital markets-related activity and price is kind of a third order effect on the return on capital we get with that client relationship. Private credit at the moment sees a return in private credit because they could put some leverage on it, and there's not a big opportunity in private equity and yields are high. And I'll chase that for a period of time. I don't know that, that's a particularly great investment through the cycle, and we don't try to compete with it in that lending environment.

再說一次，我們談論的是兩個不同的信用領域。但話雖如此，我相信您在自己的商店裡也聽說過這一點。為了借錢而藉錢並不能為我們帶來足夠的資本回報。以前沒有，現在也沒有。為我們帶來資本回報的是關係，您從 TM 獲得的類似年金的費用，您從資本市場相關活動獲得的附加費用，以及價格對我們獲得的資本回報的三階效應。客戶關係。目前私人信貸看到了私人信貸的回報，因為他們可以對其施加一些槓桿，而私募股權的機會並不大，而且收益率很高。我會在一段時間內追逐它。我不知道，這是整個週期中一項特別偉大的投資，我們不會試圖在那種貸款環境中與它競爭。

There are no further questions at this time.

目前沒有其他問題。

Okay. Well, thank you very much for participating in the call. And if you have any follow-ups, feel free to reach out to the IR team. Thank you, and good luck this quarter.

好的。好的，非常感謝您參與此通話。如果您有任何後續行動，請隨時聯繫 IR 團隊。謝謝，祝本季一切順利。

Thanks, everybody.

謝謝大家。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line. Have a great day, everyone.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。祝大家有個美好的一天。