PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings.

問候。

Welcome to the PNC Financial Services Group Inc Q3 2024 earnings conference call at this time.

歡迎此時參加 PNC Financial Services Group Inc 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。

I will now turn the conference over to Bryan Gill, Executive Vice President and Director of Investor Relations.

我現在將會議交給執行副總裁兼投資人關係總監 Bryan Gill。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Well, good morning.

嗯，早安。

Welcome to today's conference call for the PNC Financial Services Group.

歡迎參加今天的 PNC 金融服務集團電話會議。

I am Bryan Gill, the Director of Investor Relations for PNC.

我是 PNC 投資者關係總監 Bryan Gill。

And participating on this call are PNC's Chairman and CEO, Will Demchak; and Rob Reilly, Executive Vice President, and CFO.

參加本次電話會議的有 PNC 董事長兼執行長 Will Demchak；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Rob Reilly。

Today's presentation contains forward-looking information, cautionary statements about this information as well as reconciliations of non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release materials as well as our SEC filings and other investor materials.

今天的簡報包含前瞻性資訊、有關此資訊的警示性聲明以及非公認會計原則措施的調節，這些資訊均包含在今天的收益發布資料以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件和其他投資者資料中。

These are all available on our corporate website pnc.com under Investor Relations.

這些都可以在我們公司網站 pnc.com 的「投資者關係」下找到。

These statements speak only as of October 15, 2024, and PNC undertakes no obligation to update them.

這些聲明僅截至 2024 年 10 月 15 日，PNC 不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。

Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Bill.

現在，我想把電話轉給比爾。

Thank you, Bryan and good morning everyone.

謝謝布萊恩，大家早安。

As you've seen, we had a very good third quarter.

正如您所看到的，我們第三季的業績非常好。

We executed well and saw strong momentum across our franchise.

我們執行得很好，並在我們的特許經營權中看到了強勁的勢頭。

We generated $1.5 billion in net income or $3.49 diluted earnings per share.

我們產生了 15 億美元的淨利潤或 3.49 美元的稀釋每股收益。

Rob will take you through the details shortly, but I wanted to highlight a few points.

Rob 很快就會向您介紹詳細信息，但我想強調幾點。

First, we generated positive operating leverage for the third consecutive quarter.

首先，我們連續第三個季度產生了正的營運槓桿。

And as an aside, our strong performance has positioned us to deliver positive operating leverage for the full year of 2024.

順便說一句，我們強勁的業績使我們能夠在 2024 年全年實現積極的營運槓桿。

Inside of the third quarter performance, NII grew 3% as we continue our growth trajectory towards expected record NII in 2025.

在第三季的業績中，隨著我們繼續保持成長軌跡，NII 成長了 3%，預計 2025 年 NII 將創歷史新高。

Our fee income grew 10% with a very strong quarter in capital markets and we remain disciplined on the expense front.

我們的費用收入成長了 10%，資本市場的季度表現非常強勁，而且我們在費用方面仍然保持嚴格的紀律。

Second, we continue to see strong growth and activity across our franchise.

其次，我們繼續看到我們的特許經營業務的強勁成長和活動。

C&IB continues to have great momentum as new loan production and commitments increased this quarter.

隨著本季新貸款發放和承諾的增加，C&IB 繼續保持強勁勢頭。

While overall loan utilization has remained soft.

儘管整體貸款利用率仍然疲軟。

The recent Fed actions to lower interest rates and the expectation of further cuts is likely to spur greater demand as we move ahead.

隨著我們的前進，聯準會最近的降息行動和進一步降息的預期可能會刺激更大的需求。

Importantly, we are well positioned to serve our customers, when loan growth returns.

重要的是，當貸款成長恢復時，我們有能力為客戶提供服務。

Within retail, we continue to invest heavily in our branch network to build density in our most attractive growth markets.

在零售領域，我們繼續大力投資分公司網絡，以在最具吸引力的成長市場中建立密度。

And we are seeing success.

我們正在看到成功。

We continue to grow customer households and checking accounts with the highest customer growth being realized in the Southwest markets.

我們繼續增加客戶家庭和支票帳戶，其中西南市場的客戶成長最快。

AMG is accelerating growth in high opportunity markets and benefiting from favorable equity markets.

AMG 正在高機會市場中加速成長，並受益於有利的股票市場。

Third, our overall credit quality remains relatively stable, reflecting our thoughtful approach to managing risk, customer selection, and long term relationship development.

第三，我們的整體信用品質保持相對穩定，反映出我們在風險管理、客戶選擇和長期關係發展方面的深思熟慮。

While we expect additional charge offs in the CRE office segment were adequately reserved.

雖然我們預計商業地產辦公室部門的額外沖銷已被充分保留。

Lastly, we continued to strengthen our capital levels during the quarter.

最後，我們在本季繼續加強我們的資本水準。

And with the ongoing improvement NCOs our tangible book value per share increased 9%.

隨著 NCO 的持續改進，我們每股有形帳面價值增加了 9%。

In summary, we delivered strong results in the quarter and we remain well positioned to continue our momentum.

總而言之，我們在本季度取得了強勁的業績，並且仍然處於繼續保持成長勢頭的有利位置。

In fact, we're in the middle of our strategic planning process and I can't recall a time when our organic growth opportunities have ever been more attractive.

事實上，我們正​​處於策略規劃過程中，我不記得我們有機的成長機會曾經如此有吸引力。

Now before I turn it over to Rob for more detail on the financial results and outlook, I'd like to say thank you to our employees for everything that they do for our customers in our company.

現在，在我將其交給 Rob 以了解有關財務業績和前景的更多詳細資訊之前，我想感謝我們的員工為我們公司的客戶所做的一切。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Rob to take you through the quarter.

接下來，我將把它交給 Rob，讓他帶您了解這個季度的情況。

Rob.

搶。

Thanks, Bill.

謝謝，比爾。

And good morning everyone.

大家早安。

Our balance sheet is on slide 4 and is presented on an average linked quarter basis.

我們的資產負債表在投影片 4 上，以平均關聯季度為基礎呈現。

Loans of $320 billion were stable investment securities increased slightly by $1 billion or 1%.

穩定投資證券貸款 3,200 億美元，小幅增加 10 億美元，或 1%。

And our cash balances at the Federal Reserve were $45 billion.

我們在聯準會的現金餘額為 450 億美元。

An increase of $4 billion or 10%.

增加 40 億美元，即 10%。

Deposit balances grew $5 billion or 1% and averaged $422 billion.

存款餘額增加 50 億美元，成長 1%，平均為 4,220 億美元。

Borrowed funds decreased $1 billion or 2%.

借入資金減少 10 億美元，即 2%。

Primarily due to the maturity of FHLB advances partially offset by parent company debt issuances.

主要是由於 FHLB 預付款的到期被母公司發行的債務部分抵消。

At quarter end AOCI was negative $5.1 billion.

截至季末，AOCI 為負 51 億美元。

An improvement of $2.4 billion or 32% compared with June 30.

與 6 月 30 日相比，增加了 24 億美元，即 32%。

Our tangible book value increased to approximately $97 per common share which was a 9% increase linked quarter and a 24% increase compared to the same period a year ago.

我們的有形帳面價值增加至每股普通股約 97 美元，較上季成長 9%，與去年同期相比成長 24%。

We remain well capitalized in our estimated CET1 ratio increased to 10.3% as of September 30.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們的資本適足率預計已增至 10.3%。

Regarding the Basel III end game, while certain aspects of the proposed rules are likely to change, we estimate our revised standardized ratio which includes AOCI to be 9.2% at quarter end.

關於巴塞爾協議 III 的最終結果，雖然擬議規則的某些方面可能會發生變化，但我們估計，包括 AOCI 在內的修訂後的標準化比率在季度末為 9.2%。

We continue to be well positioned with capital flexibility and we returned roughly $800 million of capital to shareholders during the quarter through common dividends and share repurchases.

我們在資本彈性方面繼續處於有利地位，本季我們透過普通股利和股票回購向股東返還了約 8 億美元的資本。

Slide 5, shows our loans in more detail.

幻燈片 5 更詳細地顯示了我們的貸款。

Average loan balances of $320 billion were flat compared to the second quarter as well as the same period a year ago.

平均貸款餘額為 3,200 億美元，與第二季和去年同期相比持平。

And the yield on total loans increased 8 basis points to 6.13% in the third quarter.

第三季貸款總額收益率上升8個基點至6.13%。

Commercial loans were stable at $219 billion leaned quarter as utilization rates remained low and well below the historical average of roughly 55%.

由於利用率仍然很低，遠低於約 55% 的歷史平均水平，商業貸款穩定在 2,190 億美元的季度。

We continue to have confidence that commercial loan demand will return in the coming quarters as our loan commitments continue to increase and we expect business investment to return to historical levels.

我們仍然相信，隨著我們的貸款承諾繼續增加，商業貸款需求將在未來幾季恢復，我們預計商業投資將恢復到歷史水平。

Consumer loans averaged $101 billion and were stable with the second quarter as growth in auto loans was mostly offset by a decline in residential real estate balances.

消費貸款平均為 1,010 億美元，與第二季度保持穩定，因為汽車貸款的增長大部分被住宅房地產餘額的下降所抵消。

Slide 6, details our investment security and swap portfolios, average investment securities of $142 billion increased $1 billion or 1%.

第 6 張投影片詳細介紹了我們的投資證券和掉期投資組合，平均投資證券為 1,420 億美元，增加了 10 億美元或 1%。

The securities portfolio yield increased 24 basis points to 3.08% driven by higher rates on new purchases.

由於新購買利率上升，證券投資組合收益率上升 24 個基點至 3.08%。

And the full quarter impact of the securities repositioning.

以及證券重新定位對整個季度的影響。

As of September 30, our securities portfolio duration was approximately 3.3 years.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們的證券投資組合久期約為 3.3 年。

Our active received fixed rate swaps pointed to the commercial loan book totaled $33 billion on September 30, and the weighted average rate increased 58 basis points to 3.08%.

我們主動收到的固定利率掉期數據顯示，9 月 30 日商業貸款總額為 330 億美元，加權平均利率上升 58 個基點至 3.08%。

Our forward starting swaps were $15 billion with a weighted average receive rate of 4.26%.

我們的遠期起始互換金額為 150 億美元，加權平均接收率為 4.26%。

Importantly, with our forward starting swaps, we've locked in the replacement yield on the majority of our 2025 swap maturities at levels higher than existing swaps in current market rates.

重要的是，透過我們的遠期啟動掉期，我們將大部分 2025 年掉期到期的替代收益率鎖定在高於當前市場利率現有掉期的水平。

Turning to slide 7, we expect considerable run off of lower yielding securities and swaps which will allow us to continue to reinvest into higher yielding assets over the next couple of years.

轉向投影片 7，我們預計低收益證券和掉期交易將大量流失，這將使我們能夠在未來幾年繼續再投資於高收益資產。

Accumulated other comprehensive income improved by approximately $2.4 billion or 32% to negative $5.1 billion on September 30, compared to negative $7.4 billion on June 30.

9 月 30 日，累計其他綜合收益增加約 24 億美元，或 32%，達到負 51 億美元，而 6 月 30 日則為負 74 億美元。

The linked quarter improvement in AOCI was primarily due to lower rates which benefited our swap and available for sale portfolio valuations.

AOCI 的相關季度改善主要是由於利率下降，這有利於我們的掉期和可供出售投資組合估值。

Going forward, AOCI related to these securities and swaps as well as our held to maturity portfolio will accrete back as they mature and prepaid resulting in further growth to tangible book value.

展望未來，與這些證券和掉期相關的 AOCI 以及我們持有至到期的投資組合將隨著它們的成熟和預付而增加，從而進一步增長到有形賬面價值。

Slide 8 covers our deposit balances in more detail.

投影片 8 更詳細地介紹了我們的存款餘額。

Average deposits increase $5 billion or 1% reflecting an increase in interest bearing commercial balances as well as higher time deposits.

平均存款增加 50 億美元或 1%，反映出計息商業餘額的增加以及定期存款的增加。

Regarding mix, noninterest bearing deposits were stable at $96 billion and remained at 23% of total average deposits.

從結構來看，無利息存款穩定在 960 億美元，佔平均存款總額的 23%。

Our rate paid on interest bearing deposits increased 11 basis points during the third quarter to 2.72% reflecting growth in commercial interest bearing deposits.

第三季我們的計息存款利率上升了 11 個基點，達到 2.72%，反映了商業計息存款的成長。

We believe our total rate paid on deposits has reached its peak level.

我們相信我們的存款總利率已達到最高水準。

And with the 50 basis points cut in September, we've already begun to reduce deposit pricing.

隨著 9 月降息 50 個基點，我們已經開始降低存款定價。

Looking forward, we expect the Federal Reserve to cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points at both the November and December meetings which will accelerate deposit repricing particularly within our high beta commercial interest bearing deposits.

展望未來，我們預計聯準會將在 11 月和 12 月的會議上將基準利率下調 25 個基點，這將加速存款重新定價，特別是在我們的高貝塔商業計息存款中。

Turning to slide 9, we highlight our income statement trends.

轉向投影片 9，我們重點介紹了損益表趨勢。

Third quarter, net income was $1.5 billion or $3.49 per share.

第三季淨利為 15 億美元，即每股 3.49 美元。

Comparing the third quarter to the second quarter, total revenue of $5.4 billion increased $21 million.

第三季與第二季相比，總營收為 54 億美元，增加了 2,100 萬美元。

Net interest income grew by $108 million or 3%.

淨利息收入成長 1.08 億美元，即 3%。

And our net interest margin was 2.64%, an increase of 4 basis points.

淨利差為2.64%，上升4個基點。

Fee income increased $176 million or 10%.

手續費收入增加 1.76 億美元，成長 10%。

Other non-interest income was $69 million and included negative $128 million of visa related activity, non-interest expense of $3.3 billion decreased $30 million or 1%.

其他非利息收入為 6,900 萬美元，其中包括負 1.28 億美元的簽證相關活動，非利息支出為 33 億美元，減少了 3,000 萬美元或 1%。

As a result, [PPNR] grew 2% linked quarter and we generated positive operating leverage for the third consecutive quarter.

結果，[PPNR] 環比增長了 2%，我們連續第三個季度產生了正的營運槓桿。

Provision was $243 million reflecting portfolio activity and our effective tax rate was 19.2%.

撥備金額為 2.43 億美元，反映了投資組合活動，我們的有效稅率為 19.2%。

Turning to slide 10.

轉到投影片 10。

We highlight our revenue trends.

我們強調我們的收入趨勢。

Third quarter revenue increased $21 million driven by higher fee and net interest income partially offset by lower other noninterest income.

第三季收入增加了 2,100 萬美元，原因是費用和淨利息收入增加，但其他非利息收入減少部分抵消了這一影響。

Other noninterest income included negative $128 million of visa related activity.

其他非利息收入包括負 1.28 億美元的簽證相關活動。

Net interest income of $3.4 billion increased $108 million or 3%, driven by higher yields on interest earning assets.

由於生息資產收益率上升，淨利息收入增加了 1.08 億美元，即 3%，達 34 億美元。

Fee income was $2 billion and increased $176 million or 10% linked quarter.

手續費收入為 20 億美元，季增 1.76 億美元，成長 10%。

Looking at the detail, asset management and brokerage income grew $19 million or 5%, reflecting favorable equity and fixed income market performance.

從細節來看，資產管理和經紀收入成長了 1,900 萬美元，即 5%，反映出良好的股票和固定收益市場表現。

Capital markets and advisory fees increased approximately $100 million or 36% driven by higher M&A advisory activity, as well as broad growth across most categories.

由於併購諮詢活動增加以及大多數類別的廣泛增長，資本市場和諮詢費用增加了約 1 億美元或 36%。

Card and cash management decreased $8 million or 1%.

卡片和現金管理減少 800 萬美元，即 1%。

As higher treasury management revenue was more than offset by credit card origination incentives.

由於較高的資金管理收入被信用卡發行激勵措施所抵銷。

Lending and deposit revenue grew $16 million or 5% due to increased customer activity.

由於客戶活動增加，貸款和存款收入增加了 1,600 萬美元，即 5%。

Mortgage revenue was up $50 million linked quarter driven by a $59 million increase in the valuation of net mortgage servicing rights.

由於淨抵押貸款服務權估值增加了 5,900 萬美元，抵押貸款收入較上季增加了 5,000 萬美元。

Other non-interest income of $69 million included visa derivative fair value adjustments of negative $128 million.

6,900 萬美元的其他非利息收入包括負 1.28 億美元的 Visa 衍生性商品公允價值調整。

Primarily related to Visa's September announcement of a $1.5 billion litigation escrow funding.

主要與 Visa 9 月宣布的 15 億美元訴訟託管資金有關。

Notably, we continue to see strong momentum across our lines of business and throughout our markets and year-to-date non-interest income of $6 billion grew approximately $400 million or 7% compared to the same period last year.

值得注意的是，我們繼續看到我們的業務線和整個市場的強勁勢頭，今年迄今 60 億美元的非利息收入比去年同期增長了約 4 億美元，即 7%。

Turning to slide 11, our non-interest expense of $3.3 billion declined $30 million or 1%.

轉向投影片 11，我們的非利息支出為 33 億美元，減少了 3000 萬美元，即 1%。

Excluding the second quarter, a $120 million contribution expense to the PNC Foundation, non-interest expense increased $90 million or 3% linked quarter.

不包括第二季向 PNC 基金會捐款 1.2 億美元的費用，非利息費用增加 9,000 萬美元，季增 3%。

Personnel expense increased $87 million or 5%, reflecting higher incentive compensation related to increased business activity.

人員費用增加了 8,700 萬美元，即 5%，反映出與業務活動增加相關的激勵薪酬增加。

Importantly, all other categories declined or remained stable.

重要的是，所有其他類別均下降或保持穩定。

Year-to-date, non-interest expense has increased by $80 million or 1% excluding the $130 million FDIC Special assessment and the $120 million foundation contribution expense in 2024.

年初至今，不包括 2024 年 1.3 億美元的 FDIC 特別評估費用和 1.2 億美元的基金會捐款費用，非利息費用增加了 8,000 萬美元，即 1%。

Non-interest expense is down 2% compared to the same period a year ago.

非利息支出較去年同期下降2%。

We remain diligent in our continuous improvement efforts.

我們仍然勤奮地持續改善。

We increased our CIP goal last quarter from $425 million to $450 million and we're on track to achieve that goal in 2024.

上季我們將 CIP 目標從 4.25 億美元提高到 4.5 億美元，我們預計在 2024 年實現這一目標。

As you know, this program funds a significant portion of our ongoing business and technology investments.

如您所知，該計劃為我們正在進行的業務和技術投資提供了很大一部分資金。

Our credit metrics are presented on slide 12.

我們的信用指標如投影片 12 所示。

Non-performing loans increased $75 million or 3% linked quarter, primarily driven by an increase in CRE office loans.

不良貸款增加了 7500 萬美元，環比增加了 3%，主要是由於商業房地產辦公貸款的增加。

Total delinquencies of $1.3 billion were stable with June 30.

截至 6 月 30 日，拖欠總額穩定在 13 億美元。

Net loan charge offs were $286 million, the $24 million linked quarter increase was driven primarily by lower commercial recoveries and our annualized net charge offs to average loans ratio was 36 basis points.

淨貸款沖銷額為 2.86 億美元，季度環比增長 2,400 萬美元主要是由於商業復甦率較低，我們的年化淨沖銷額與平均貸款比率為 36 個基點。

Our allowance for credit losses totaled $5.3 billion or 1.7% of total loans on September 30 stable with June 30.

9 月 30 日，我們的信貸損失準備金總額為 53 億美元，佔貸款總額的 1.7%，與 6 月 30 日持平。

Slide 13 provides more detail on our CRE office credit metrics.

投影片 13 提供了有關我們的商業房地產辦公室信用指標的更多詳細資訊。

We continue to see stress in the office portfolio given the challenges inherent in this book and the lack of demand for office properties.

鑑於本書固有的挑戰以及對辦公物業的需求缺乏，我們繼續看到辦公大樓投資組合面臨壓力。

CRE Office criticized loans were essentially stable linked quarter but NPLS increased due to the migration of criticized loans to nonperforming status.

商業地產辦公室批評貸款與季度掛鉤基本穩定，但由於受批評貸款轉為不良狀態，不良貸款率增加。

Net loan charge offs within the CRE office portfolio were down slightly.

商業地產辦公室投資組合內的淨貸款沖銷略有下降。

However, going forward, we expect additional charge offs on this book, the size of which will vary quarter-to-quarter given the nature of the loans.

然而，展望未來，我們預計這本書會出現額外的沖銷，考慮到貸款的性質，沖銷的規模將每個季度有所不同。

As of September 30, our reserves on the overall office portfolio were 11.3% and inside of that 16% on the multi-tenant portfolio, both up slightly from prior quarter.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們在整個辦公大樓投資組合中的準備金為 11.3%，其中多租戶投資組合為 16%，兩者均較上一季略有上升。

The modest increase in reserves reflects the continued valuation adjustments across the portfolio and specific reserves for certain credits.

準備金的小幅成長反映了整個投資組合和某些信貸的特定準備金的持續估值調整。

Furthermore CRE office balances declined 4% or approximately $270 million linked quarter as we continue to manage our exposure down.

此外，由於我們繼續控制風險敞口，CRE 辦公室餘額下降了 4%，即季度相關的約 2.7 億美元。

Accordingly, we believe we are adequately reserved.

因此，我們相信我們有足夠的保留。

In summary PNC reported a solid third quarter.

總而言之，PNC 報告第三季業績強勁。

Regarding our view of the overall economy, we're expecting continued economic growth in the fourth quarter resulting in real GDP growth of approximately 2% in 2024 and unemployment to remain slightly above 4% through year end.

關於我們對整體經濟的看法，我們預計第四季度經濟將持續成長，到 2024 年實際 GDP 成長約為 2%，失業率到年底將保持略高於 4%。

We expect the Fed to cut rates two additional times in 2024 with a 25 basis point decrease in November and another in December.

我們預計聯準會將在 2024 年再降息兩次，其中 11 月降息 25 個基點，12 月降息另一次。

Looking at the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the third quarter of 2024, we expect average loans to be stable, net interest income to be up approximately 1%, fee income to be down 5% to 7% due to the elevated third quarter capital markets and MSR levels.

與 2024 年第三季相比，我們預計 2024 年第四季平均貸款將保持穩定，淨利息收入將成長約 1%，由於第三季資本增加，費用收入將下降 5% 至 7%市場和MSR水平。

Other non-interest income to be in the range of $150 million and $200 million excluding Visa activity.

不包括 Visa 活動的其他非利息收入將在 1.5 億至 2 億美元之間。

Taking the component pieces of revenue together, we expect total revenue to be stable.

將各個收入組成部分放在一起，我們預計總收入將保持穩定。

We expect total non-interest expense to be up 2% to 3% and we expect fourth quarter net charge offs to be approximately $300 million.

我們預計非利息支出總額將成長 2% 至 3%，第四季淨沖銷額將約為 3 億美元。

Importantly, considering our year-to-date results and fourth quarter expectations, we are on track to generate full year positive operating leverage.

重要的是，考慮到我們今年迄今的業績和第四季度的預期，我們預計將實現全年正營運槓桿。

And with that Bill and I are ready to take your questions.

比爾和我準備好回答你們的問題了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Erika Najarian, UBS.

艾莉卡·納賈里安，瑞銀。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Rob, if we can just unpack a little bit of the commentary you made on the swap.

羅布，我們能否解開您對這次交換的一些評論。

So I guess first part of this question is, I noticed that the receive fixed rate on your asset, on your active swaps went up quite a bit quarter-to-quarter.

所以我想這個問題的第一部分是，我注意到你的資產、你的活躍掉期的固定利率按季度上升了很多。

Implying that what's rolling off is, well, sub one.

這意味著正在滾動的東西是，嗯，子一。

You went from 250 to 308.

你從 250 變成了 308。

So I'm wondering if you could confirm that and looking forward, I think you said something in your prepared remarks about replacing expiring '25 swabs at a higher fixed rate, receive fixed rate than you thought to maybe just clarify that statement as well.

因此，我想知道您是否可以確認這一點，並展望未來，我認為您在準備好的評論中說了一些關於以更高的固定費率更換過期的25 拭子的內容，接受比您想像的固定費率，也許只是澄清了這項聲明。

Well, sure.

嗯，當然。

Good morning, Erika.

早安，埃里卡。

So, you're right.

所以，你是對的。

And again, all of this, in terms of your question, point to what is occurring, which is that our repricing of our fixed rate assets, including our securities loans and swaps is occurring at higher rates.

再說一次，就你的問題而言，所有這些都指向正在發生的事情，即我們對固定利率資產（包括我們的證券貸款和掉期）的重新定價正在以更高的利率發生。

So that's all of what we've been talking about for a while.

這就是我們一段時間以來所討論的全部內容。

True in terms of the swaps, new swaps are at a higher rate than the old swaps.

就掉期而言，新掉期的利率確實高於舊掉期的利率。

And then, as you recall back in the spring, we did execute some forward swaps that locked in rates for maturing assets in '25 that contribute to our statement which we might as well confirm upfront our NII being a record level in 2025 we're sticking to it.

然後，正如您在春天回憶的那樣，我們確實執行了一些遠期掉期，鎖定了25 年到期資產的利率，這有助於我們的聲明，我們也可以預先確認我們的NII 在2025 年達到創紀錄的水平，我們正在堅持下去。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

And just the second part of my question, that's the mechanical side.

這只是我問題的第二部分，即機械方面。

Now, on the strategic side, Bill, it's been such a long time since the market has seen a neutral rate of not zero.

現在，從策略角度來看，比爾，市場已經很久沒有出現不為零的中性利率了。

Everybody's talked about deposit beta, but as we think about what the natural deposit cost is for PNC, how should we think about what the spread is?

每個人都在談論存款貝塔值，但當我們思考 PNC 的自然存款成本是多少時，我們應該如何考慮利差是多少？

Let's say we settle at [2.75%,3%], in terms of Fed funds.

假設就聯邦基金而言，我們定為[2.75%,3%]。

What's the spread in terms of Fed funds versus your funding costs naturally?

聯邦基金與您的自然融資成本之間的利差是多少？

And additionally, just as a quick follow up to Rob, as we're on the liability side of the balance sheet, is there, you know, what drove the strength in deposits and was that mostly corporate and is that permanent balances or is that sort of some corporate balance is just parked for now, given the uncertainty in the market?

此外，正如羅布的快速跟進一樣，因為我們處於資產負債表的負債方，你知道，是什麼推動了存款的強勁增長，主要是企業的，是永久餘額還是鑑於市場的不確定性，某種企業平衡暫時被擱置？

I can't give a specific answer to where we might end up, if rates, front rates kind of hold it free and change, which I expect they will.

我無法給出具體的答案，如果利率、前期利率保持自由並改變的話，我們最終可能會走向何方，我希望他們會這麼做。

Practically you can do it most of that yourself, right.

實際上，大部分事情你都可以自己完成，對吧。

So the zero cost deposits are obviously worth a lot more if there's any steepness to the curve.

因此，如果曲線陡峭，零成本存款顯然價值更高。

We get that benefit with our fixed rate assets.

我們透過固定利率資產獲得這種好處。

So maybe inside of your question is, I'll see, if we end up in an environment where front rates are three and change and back rates are somewhat higher than that, that's the really attractive environment for banks ourselves included.

因此，也許您的問題是，我會看到，如果我們最終處於一個前端利率為三、找零利率和後端利率略高於此的環境中，那麼這對銀行本身（包括銀行本身）來說才是真正有吸引力的環境。

And then the second part of that Erika was that the outperformance in our deposit balances came on the commercial interest bearing side.

艾莉卡的第二部分是我們存款餘額的優異表現來自於商業利息方面。

As commercial clients continue to build cash on their balance sheet, our expectation is that will hold for the most part through the end of the year.

隨著商業客戶繼續在資產負債表上增加現金，我們預計這種情況將在很大程度上持續到今年年底。

John Pancari, Evercore.

約翰·潘卡里，Evercore。

Good morning.

早安.

On the loan side, still balances are clearly still pressured, then you flagged C&IB Utilization down a bit to 50.7% and below your historical.

在貸款方面，餘額顯然仍面臨壓力，因此您將 C&IB 利用率略微下調至 50.7%，低於歷史水平。

You maybe talk about the demand and the underlying demand trends that you are seeing and what do you think is going to be the biggest catalyst to get borrowers off the sidelines and borrowing?

您可能會談論您所看到的需求和潛在需求趨勢，以及您認為讓借款人不再觀望和借款的最大催化劑是什麼？

Is it continued rate cuts?

是否持續降息？

Confidence in that front?

對這方面有信心嗎？

Is it the election?

是選舉嗎？

If you could just maybe give us some thoughts there.

如果您能給我們一些想法的話。

And what do you think the growth rate is reasonable as you enter 2025?

進入2025年，您認為合理的成長率是多少？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Hey John, it's Rob.

嘿約翰，我是羅布。

So yeah, all year we've yet to deliver the loan growth that we thought was coming at the at some future point.

所以，是的，全年我們還沒有實現我們認為在未來某個時刻會出現的貸款成長。

And for all the obvious reasons that you've seen utilization is low and there is a bit of a pause feeling.

由於所有顯而易見的原因，您已經看到利用率很低，並且有一點停頓的感覺。

Obviously, with the election coming up and the rate environment.

顯然，隨著選舉的臨近和利率環境的變化。

What we point to in terms of on the constructive front is we do continue to add customers, we do continue to add loan commitments quarter-over-quarter.

我們在建設性方面指出的是，我們確實繼續增加客戶，我們確實繼續逐季度增加貸款承諾。

So our commercial clients are putting those lines in place with the anticipation of borrowing.

因此，我們的商業客戶正在設定這些額度，以期獲得借款。

So that's a constructive sign and then you've seen the low inventory levels, the low CapEx to sales levels.

所以這是一個建設性的跡象，然後你會看到庫存水準低，銷售水準的資本支出低。

So it does feel as though we're at the point of the cycle to where, loan growth is not too far off.

因此，我們確實感覺似乎正處於貸款成長週期的轉折點上。

Okay, got it.

好的，明白了。

Thanks Rob for that.

謝謝羅布。

And then separately, capital markets clearly has been a point of strength.

另外，資本市場顯然也是一個優勢點。

Can you maybe just provide us a little bit of color on the pipeline there?

您能否為我們提供一些有關管道的資訊？

And do you expect a pullback in the fourth quarter of these high levels?

您預計第四季這些高水準會回落嗎？

Just how should we think about that?

我們該如何思考這個問題呢？

Yeah, we do.

是的，我們願意。

I'll expand that a little bit in terms of our fee guidance for the fourth quarter.

我將在第四季度的費用指導方面稍微擴展一下這一點。

So we're pointing to down 5% to 7% and all of that decline is being driven by the elevated MSR levels and the elevated capital markets levels that we achieved in the third quarter.

因此，我們預計會下降 5% 到 7%，而所有這些下降都是由我們在第三季度實現的 MSR 水準提高和資本市場水準提高所推動的。

So for the fourth quarter, the MSR's is pretty straightforward.

因此，對於第四季度，MSR 非常簡單。

We don't expect to have those levels in the fourth quarter.

我們預計第四季不會達到這些水準。

And then on the capital market side the short answer is we probably pulled a little bit of the fourth quarter activity into the third quarter.

然後在資本市場方面，簡短的答案是我們可能將第四季的一些活動推遲到第三季。

A lot of that is in our Harris Williams M&A advisory businesses that are really strong third quarter as well as some of the other broader capital markets stories.

其中很大一部分是我們的哈里斯威廉斯併購諮詢業務，這些業務在第三季非常強勁，以及其他一些更廣泛的資本市場故事。

So, it's a little bit lumpy.

所以，它有點凹凸不平。

The pipelines though are strong, the momentum is strong.

儘管管道很強大，但勢頭很強勁。

Capital markets year-over-year is up north of 23%.

資本市場年增超過 23%。

The back half of '24 including our capital markets guidance for the fourth quarter is up 20% over the first half.

24 年下半年，包括我們第四季的資本市場指引，比上半年成長了 20%。

So the momentum is there, it's just not necessarily going to fall linearly quarter-to-quarter.

所以勢頭是存在的，但不一定會逐季線性下降。

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

斯科特·西弗斯，派珀·桑德勒。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Thanks for taking the question.

感謝您提出問題。

I guess, I wanted to follow up just a little bit on sort of the lending and deposit discussion, I guess, first just kind of qualitatively, do you have a sense for what a lending recovery might look like when it does come back?

我想，我想對貸款和存款的討論進行一些跟進，我想，首先是定性的，您是否知道貸款復甦確實回來時會是什麼樣子？

And I guess the context of that is that I recall a time when the bank loans used to grow at some multiple of GDP, but it's been quite a while since we've seen that.

我想這背後的背景是，我記得曾經有一段時間，銀行貸款的成長速度是 GDP 的幾倍，但我們已經很久沒有看到這種情況了。

So maybe just some top level thoughts there.

所以也許只是一些頂層的想法。

And then on the other side of the balance sheet, just maybe your sense for how deposit costs behave if lending does come back better, you all and I think a lot of the industry are great from a liquidity perspective.

然後在資產負債表的另一邊，也許你對如果貸款確實恢復得更好的話存款成本如何表現的感覺，你們所有人和我認為從流動性的角度來看，這個行業的很多人都很棒。

So curious how much competition factors into your thinking as well.

很好奇競爭因素對你的思考有多少影響。

We can come up with 10 different theories on why loan growth hasn't been there and why it might come back, but all of them are being making up theories.

我們可以提出 10 種不同的理論來解釋為什麼貸款成長沒有出現以及為什麼貸款成長可能會回來，但所有這些都是編造的理論。

It's been below trend on utilization.

使用率一直低於趨勢。

You know, there's a bunch of uncertainty, not the least of which is the election and rates and all the other things that may impact it.

你知道，存在著許多不確定性，其中最重要的是選舉和利率以及所有其他可能影響它的因素。

But it's one of the reasons why we kind of said, look, we'll produce growth for our shareholders without having to rely on some made up story as to why there might be loan growth.

但這就是為什麼我們說，看，我們將為股東帶來成長，而不必依賴一些編造的故事來解釋為什麼貸款可能會成長。

If there is, it's terrific and at some point it will come back.

如果有的話，那就太棒了，並且在某個時候它會回來。

But I've given up trying to forecast it personally.

但我已經放棄嘗試親自預測它。

On the funding side, we are very liquid.

在資金方面，我們的流動性非常好。

So we have an opportunity.

所以我們有機會。

Should it arise?

它應該出現嗎？

We have a lot of capital and cash and that would be a great thing for us.

我們擁有大量的資本和現金，這對我們來說是一件好事。

I don't know, the balance at the Fed is

我不知道，聯準會的餘額是

-- .

——。

35 spot, 45 average, so a lot.

35 名，平均 45 名，所以很多。

So I don't know that it's going to impact our funding costs whatsoever.

所以我不知道這會影響我們的融資成本。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

馬特‧奧康納，德意志銀行。

Good morning.

早安.

Any updated thoughts on where you think your net interest margin normalizes?

關於您認為淨利差正常化的情況有什麼最新想法嗎？

I think at one point a couple of months ago, you said it could approach 3%.

我想幾個月前你曾說過可能會接近 3%。

I think it was by the end of next year.

我認為是到明年年底。

But updated thoughts on that given the forward curve and your outlook for the mix of the balance sheet.

但考慮到遠期曲線和您對資產負債表組合的前景，對此的最新想法。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Hey, Matt, it's Rob.

嘿，馬特，我是羅布。

I do recall you asking the question before and the answer is going to be the same which is, our NIM is increasing.

我記得你之前問過這個問題，答案是一樣的，那就是我們的淨利差正在增加。

We don't manage to NIM it's an outcome.

我們沒有設法 NIM 這是一個結果。

We've operated close to three.

我們已經運營了接近三個。

My expectation is that we'll approach those levels.

我的期望是我們將接近這些水平。

I don't remember saying by the end of '25 but maybe that's something that you added in.

我不記得在 25 年底說過，但也許這是你添加的內容。

But we're on our way up and three is reasonable through time.

但我們正在上升，隨著時間的推移，三個是合理的。

Okay.

好的。

And I said maybe it was by the end of '26.

我說也許是到 26 年底。

I had my, -- no hard to read.

我有我的——不難讀。

And then just separately, you've always been very strong in commercial lending and some of the few businesses that come from that the consumer side has always been a little bit less of a focus, but I think you've been leaning in areas like credit card, around the edges and just any update thoughts in terms of what could be growth drivers as we think about consumer lending, consumer fees the next couple of years.

另外，你們在商業貸款方面一直非常強大，而來自消費者方面的一些少數業務一直不太受關注，但我認為你們一直傾向於以下領域當我們考慮未來幾年的消費貸款、消費者費用時，信用卡、邊緣以及任何關於可能成為成長動力的最新想法。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Look, we've, historically, we have underinvested in it and we've under, we are under penetrated with our existing clients and consumer, and that's our opportunity set.

看，從歷史上看，我們在這方面的投資不足，我們對現有客戶和消費者的滲透不足，這就是我們的機會集。

I don't know that we need to be heroic and be go beyond that, but we want to have the same penetration rate that our peers do with respect to our consumer lending.

我不知道我們是否需要表現得英勇並超越這一點，但我們希望在消費貸款方面擁有與同行相同的滲透率。

And there's, fairly material upside, if we can pull that off and we're investing to be able to do so,

如果我們能夠實現這一目標並且我們正在投資以實現這一目標，那麼將會有相當大的好處，

And we've introduced a new credit card and plans to continue to do that along those lines.

我們推出了新的信用卡，並計劃繼續這樣做。

Okay.

好的。

And when do you think you'll start, we'll start seeing some of those efforts kick in.

您認為什麼時候開始，我們將開始看到其中一些努力開始發揮作用。

I mean, we are seeing pretty good credit card volume growth in the industry and at most peers and obviously there's a little bit of a lag.

我的意思是，我們看到該行業和大多數同行的信用卡數量增長相當不錯，但顯然存在一點滯後。

But what do you think some of those efforts will be a little bit more evident?

但您認為其中一些努力會更加明顯嗎？

I don't know that I have a timeline on it.

我不知道我有一個時間表。

I would tell you that we're investing in people, we're investing in our credit management capabilities and our marketing and our product delivery.

我想告訴你，我們正在投資人員，我們正在投資我們的信用管理能力以及我們的行銷和產品交付。

You know, all of the above that will hopefully through time allow us to get the penetration.

你知道，以上所有這些都希望隨著時間的推移讓我們能夠獲得滲透。

We should have, I don't know what the timeline is on that, but I know it's a journey and I know we need to start it

我們應該有，我不知道時間表是什麼，但我知道這是一個旅程，我知道我們需要開始它

And we're beginning now.

我們現在就開始。

That's

那是

-- .

——。

Bill Carcache, Wolfe Research.

比爾‧卡卡什，沃爾夫研究中心。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning, Bill and Rob.

早上好，比爾和羅布。

Following up on your loan growth commentary.

跟進您的貸款成長評論。

You've had a lot of success over the years in taking share within C&I.

多年來，您在 C&I 內部的份額方面取得了巨大的成功。

If we do get a re acceleration in loan growth over say the next year or so, how does that influence your ability to continue to take share and perhaps outpace industry growth, recognizing your competitors are obviously not willingly seating share.

如果我們確實在明年左右的時間內貸款成長再次加速，這將如何影響您繼續佔據份額並可能超越行業成長的能力，因為您認識到您的競爭對手顯然不願意佔據份額。

Well, I think that will show up.

嗯，我想這會出現的。

We are growing DHE and winning new clients at a record pace, I think.

我認為，我們正在以創紀錄的速度發展 DHE 並贏得新客戶。

So, when utilization comes back, we got as we have in the past, my best guess is we would outperform.

因此，當利用率恢復時，我們會像過去一樣，我最好的猜測是我們會表現出色。

Well, DHE is our loan commitment.

嗯，DHE 是我們的貸款承諾。

They're unfunded at the moment, but they've been put in place.

目前他們還沒有資金，但已經到位。

And I think the most of the momentum that we see is in our Southwest markets where we are achieving record levels and would expect to be above average if it all plays out as we expect.

我認為我們看到的最大動力是在西南市場，我們正在達到創紀錄的水平，如果一切按照我們的預期進行，預計將高於平均水平。

Thanks.

謝謝。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then separately on non-interest bearing deposits, you expect rates on your interest bearing deposits to decline starting next quarter.

然後，就無息存款而言，您預計有息存款的利率將從下個季度開始下降。

But how long before you'd expect to see the effect of lower rates relating to compensating balances?

但是，您預計多久才能看到與補償餘額相關的較低利率的影響？

Yeah, I don't know.

是的，我不知道。

That's a tough one to answer.

這是一個很難回答的問題。

I mean, what we're encouraged about is that we've clearly stabilized now for a couple of quarters at the levels that we are following several quarters of pretty substantial decline.

我的意思是，令我們感到鼓舞的是，在幾個季度大幅下滑之後，我們現在已經明顯穩定在幾個季度的水平上。

So we've stabilized.

所以我們已經穩定下來了。

There's a lot of theories in terms of what sort of the magic short term rate is that kicks that up, but no one has a definitive answer,

關於什麼樣的神奇短期利率會引發這種情況，有很多理論，但沒有人有明確的答案，

Right.

正確的。

But is the credit that you give customers on compensating balances, a sort of lever that you'd expect to use or be willing to use as you look to grow noninterest bearing deposits.

但這是您向客戶提供的補償性餘額信貸，這是您在尋求增加無息存款時期望使用或願意使用的一種槓桿。

Just trying to think through whether that's a potential something that could spur growth.

只是想思考一下這是否是一種可以刺激成長的潛在因素。

You should assume that crediting rate is a below market versus open deposit rate and so it's not going to have a moving beta for some period of time relative to rates coming down.

您應該假設貸記利率相對於開放存款利率低於市場水平，因此在一段時間內相對於利率下降，它不會有移動的貝塔值。

It's relatively confident.

是比較有信心的。

And we're fine with that.

我們對此表示同意。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

If I could squeeze in one last one.

如果我能擠進最後一張就好了。

If the NII trajectory that you laid out for 2025 plays out as anticipated, is there any reason why the positive operating leverage commentary that you laid out is very helpful.

如果您為 2025 年制定的 NII 軌跡符合預期，那麼您提出的積極營運槓桿評論是否非常有幫助？

But any reason why the efficiency ratio wouldn't get down into sort of that high 50% range.

但無論如何，效率比不會降到 50% 的高範圍內。

It seems like the math would suggest that could get there but would appreciate your thoughts.

數學似乎表明可以到達那裡，但會欣賞您的想法。

We'll have to see, but we're in the process of doing our budgeting for next year right now.

我們必須拭目以待，但我們現在正在製定明年的預算。

So we'll have more for you on that in our January call.

因此，我們將在一月份的電話會議中為您提供更多相關資訊。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

麥克梅奧，富國銀行。

Hi, I think Bill, your prior comment that you expect record NII in 2025.

你好，比爾，你之前的評論是，你預計 2025 年 NII 會創歷史新高。

Do you feel more, less or just as confident as before?

你覺得比以前更有信心、更少還是和以前一樣自信？

And what sort of loan growth do you kind of assume for next year?

您預計明年的貸款成長情況如何？

We wouldn't have said it if we didn't feel confident to begin with.

如果我們一開始就沒有信心，我們就不會這麼說。

So I don't know, levels of confidence, but we feel pretty good -- about that confident. -- We don't have any loan growth in there whatsoever to get to that number.

所以我不知道信心的水平，但我們感覺很好——對此充滿信心。 ——我們沒有任何貸款成長來達到這個數字。

So no long growth for next year?

那麼明年不會有長期成長嗎？

We have something but

我們有一些東西但是

-- .

——。

Well, we will have something but the record NII level is not reliant.

好吧，我們會有一些東西，但創紀錄的 NII 水平並不可靠。

It's not dependent on long growth.

它不依賴長期成長。

Okay.

好的。

And then back, I think last quarter you used the word befuddled.

然後回來，我想上個季度你用了「困惑」這個詞。

As to why loan growth wasn't coming back.

至於為什麼貸款成長沒有恢復。

I guess number one could be the election.

我想第一名可能是選舉。

Number two could be private credit.

第二個可能是私人信貸。

Number three could be disintermediation in capital markets.

第三可能是資本市場的脫媒。

Number four, companies could just be managed differently today.

第四，今天的公司可以採用不同的管理方式。

Or number five, you could have a weaker economy or it could be all of the above.

或者第五，經濟可能疲軟，也可能是以上所有情況。

Just give us your best stab at why loan growth remains just so weak in the economy that's still growing?

請給我們最好的解釋，為什麼貸款成長在仍在成長的經濟中仍然如此疲軟？

I think all of your reasons other than three and four.

我認為除了第三和第四個原因之外，還有其他所有原因。

I don't think private is causing utilization rate on middle market companies to remain low.

我認為私人企業不會導致中間市場公司的利用率維持在較低水準。

You know, for the businesses we play in.

你知道，對於我們從事的業務來說。

And I'm not sure, I mean, at the margin, public markets being wide open has caused some of our larger clients that pay down outstanding balances and hit the capital market.

我不確定，我的意思是，公開市場的開放是否會導致我們的一些大客戶償還未償餘額並進入資本市場。

So that's probably true at the margin by.

所以這在某種程度上可能是正確的。

This basic notion of people just aren't using working capital the way they used to and maybe that's the way they run the company post COVID.

人們的基本觀念就是不再像以前那樣使用營運資金，也許這就是他們在新冠疫情後經營公司的方式。

Maybe that's the uncertainty.

也許這就是不確定性。

It's going to play out over time, and we can all guess about it.

隨著時間的推移，它將會發揮作用，我們都可以猜測。

I just don't know the answer.

我只是不知道答案。

So I'm still befuddled.

所以我還是很迷惘。

Okay.

好的。

And then lastly your reserves on office CRE were taken even higher, especially multi-tenant last quarter.

最後，您對辦公室 CRE 的儲備金甚至更高，尤其是上個季度的多租戶。

You said the industry is in the first inning.

你說這個行業正處於第一局。

I think a lot of people disagree with that.

我認為很多人不同意這一點。

I'm not saying, yeah, I'm not sure we're two years into this at least.

我並不是說，是的，我不確定我們至少已經有兩年了。

And it's still a big question mark.

這仍然是一個很大的問號。

I think in a lot of people's mind.

我想在很多人心中。

So when you said the industries in the first inning and clearly your reserves are higher than others, what's -- why do you say it's only the first inning?

那麼當你說第一局的行業，而且你的儲備明顯比別人高時，為什麼說這只是第一局呢？

What's your reasoning?

你的理由是什麼？

I think, we're just now starting to clear buildings in sales, right.

我想，我們現在才剛開始清理銷售中的建築物，對吧。

We've had some extensions, we've had maturities hitting, we have a whole slew of term loans in the C&BI market and with small banks that will be out there three, four, five, six years.

我們已經進行了一些延期，我們已經到期了，我們在 C&BI 市場和小型銀行擁有大量的定期貸款，期限將是三年、四年、五年、六年。

So I just think this plays out through over a long period of time.

所以我認為這會持續很長一段時間。

Office vacancies pick your market are quite high.

您所在市場的辦公室空置率相當高。

And we're just now realizing the mark to market value of that as we resolve properties.

當我們解決房產問題時，我們現在才意識到其市場價值。

That's why we're reserved where we are and that's why I'm not worried about it per se from PNC standpoint.

這就是為什麼我們保留現狀，也是為什麼從 PNC 的角度來看我並不擔心這一點。

But now this is going to be noisy for a while.

但現在這會吵鬧一段時間。

I might add something

我可能會添加一些東西

-- . (multiple speakers)

——。 （多個發言者）

-- We're not in early innings with respect to how we're reserved.

——對於我們的保留方式，我們還沒有處於早期階段。

I mean, you love or hate, but to the best of our ability, we've taken all that up front.

我的意思是，你愛或恨，但我們已盡我們所能，把這一切都放在首位。

It's taking one more last one.

還需要最後一件事。

As far as acquisitions, I know you'd like to buy them on the cheap.

至於收購，我知道你想以便宜的價格購買它們。

I mean, National City, you go down the list.

我的意思是，納欣諾市，你在名單上。

It's getting tougher for you to buy things on the cheap.

你越來越難買到便宜的東西了。

Maybe if you, a bank does have an office or CRE problem that you swoop in there.

也許如果你，一家銀行確實有一個辦公室或 CRE 問題，你可以立即介入。

But am I right in thinking it's a lot less likely you do an acquisition now that some of these stocks have come back or what you're thinking?

但我的想法是否正確，既然其中一些股票已經回歸，那麼您進行收購的可能性就會大大降低，或者您的想法是這樣的嗎？

You're right, we don't see value in an acquisition at the moment.

你是對的，我們目前看不到收購的價值。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉，美國銀行。

Good morning, I guess maybe just one Rob for you as a follow up on deposit pricing.

早安，我想也許只是為您做一次搶奪，作為存款定價的後續行動。

I think fair amount of uncertainty around how much banks will be able to flex deposit costs lower.

我認為銀行能夠在多大程度上降低存款成本存在很大的不確定性。

We got the September cut.

我們得到了九月份的削減。

Remind us one around your beta expectations and any early proof points on how customers and especially commercial customers have received the lower rates over the last few weeks.

請提醒我們您的 Beta 版預期，以及有關客戶（尤其是商業客戶）如何在過去幾週內獲得較低費率的任何早期證據。

Sure.

當然。

So, we're early on just a couple of weeks out from the rate, but now we're in a down beta cycle.

因此，我們距離利率還有幾週的時間，但現在我們正處於下調測試週期。

You know, we said that we think that our terminal beta will be approximately 50%.

你知道，我們說過我們認為我們的終端貝塔值約為 50%。

And we will reduce rates paid through the balance of this year and maybe we get a little bit less than half of the way there by the end of '24.

我們將降低今年剩餘時間支付的利率，也許到 24 年底我們的利率會略低於一半。

But that's going to play out it's early, but that's sort of our thinking.

但這現在還為時過早，但這就是我們的想法。

So, rate paid will be coming down particularly in the higher interest bearing commercial deposits, some wealth deposits and that's underway and we expect that to continue.

因此，支付的利率將會下降，特別是在利息較高的商業存款和一些財富存款方面，這種情況正在進行中，我們預計這種情況將持續下去。

Got it and on commercial clients.

明白了，在商業客戶上。

So, heard you around loan growth and all the reasons why loan growth may or may not pick up.

那麼，讓我們來聽聽您關於貸款成長的情況以及貸款成長可能會或可能不會加快的所有原因。

If you don't mind just speaking to the health of the commercial customer base and whether like some of the macro data on jobs could be a bit misleading.

如果您不介意只談論商業客戶群的健康狀況以及某些就業宏觀數據是否可能有點誤導。

Like when you talk to your C&I customers, are they like, are the balance sheets healthy?

就像當您與工商業客戶交談時，他們會問資產負債表是否健康？

Like do they, if the Fed were to pause rate cuts after a cut or two, does that increase the risk for these customers?

就像他們一樣，如果聯準會在一兩次降息後暫停降息，這是否會增加這些客戶的風險？

And how they might approach investing, hiring, et cetera.

以及他們如何進行投資、招募等。

Would love any color you can share?

喜歡什麼顏色可以分享嗎？

I guess maybe it varies by industry, but a simple notion is companies at the margin are losing margin, right.

我想這可能因行業而異，但一個簡單的概念是處於邊緣的公司正在失去利潤，對吧。

They have an -- , they can't pass on prices the way they once could, they're not making it up in volume.

他們不能像以前那樣傳遞價格，也不能用數量來彌補。

So the discussion of, how do I cut cost has at least entered the dialogue, but we haven't seen that show up in layoffs, the data remains strong.

因此，關於如何削減成本的討論至少已經進入對話階段，但我們還沒有看到裁員出現，數據仍然強勁。

And as long as the data is strong, consumers are spending and the economy is strong.

只要數據強勁，消費者就會消費，經濟就會強勁。

So everybody's staring and watching and looking and there's margin pressure on corporates.

因此，每個人都在看著，企業面臨利潤壓力。

But there's no, I we don't see in conversations some pending big layoff spike hitting the US economy.

但我們在談話中沒有看到一些即將發生的大規模裁員高峰會衝擊美國經濟。

There's specific industries that are in slumps, whether it's transportation, you know, health care, struggling consumer.

有些特定產業正陷入衰退，無論是交通運輸、醫療保健或陷入困境的消費者。

There at the margin, but that's -- it's just at the margin and

就在邊緣，但那就是——它只是在邊緣，

Nothing new.

沒什麼新意。

Got it.

知道了。

And if one last one just following up on Mike's question on M&A bank transactions usually stock for stock.

如果最後一個只是跟進麥克關於併購銀行交易的問題，通常是股票換股票。

Now what I mean, your stock has done well, why would a deal given your history and track record on deal integration?

現在我的意思是，你的股票表現良好，考慮到你在交易整合方面的歷史和記錄，為什麼還要交易？

Like is it just completely ruled out at this point if there's a willing seller acquiring a good franchise?

就像現在完全排除了是否有願意的賣家獲得良好的特許經營權一樣？

Does it no longer make sense just because of pricing.

僅僅因為定價就不再有意義了嗎？

It's, I mean, the fact that we have a multiple advantage of -- our stock is worth the money it trades at.

我的意思是，我們擁有多重優勢——我們的股票物有所值。

I'm not sure other stocks are.

我不確定其他股票是否如此。

So, you know, straight up financial math saying it works doesn't mean it's a good deal.

所以，你知道，直接從金融數學上說它有效並不意味著這是一筆好交易。

And, when we look at potential targets it would be interesting from certain geographies and so forth.

而且，當我們考慮潛在目標時，某些地區等會很有趣。

They just don't pencil out when you look at their balance sheet and the amount of investment we'd have to put in the franchise and the time sink it takes to do it.

當你查看他們的資產負債表、我們必須在特許經營權上投入的投資金額以及完成這件事所需的時間時，他們只是不會列出來。

So -- and by the way, we look at everything, I just, I don't think the market is anywhere close where we'd find something attractive.

所以，順便說一句，我們會考慮一切，我只是，我認為市場離我們發現有吸引力的東西還很遠。

Or pay a premium on top of what you think, it's already a premium priced in.

或者在你想像的基礎上支付溢價，它已經是溢價了。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

貝特西‧格拉塞克，摩根士丹利。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Just to follow up on the last question.

只是為了跟進最後一個問題。

So, right, it doesn't make sense M&A right now in this environment given.

所以，在這種環境下，目前的併購沒有意義。

Well, whatever I won't go there.

好吧，無論如何我都不會去那裡。

But just the underlying question is organic growth.

但根本問題是有機成長。

How do you see your organic growth progressing over the medium term?

您如何看待中期有機成長的進展？

Are there legs to acceleration or what we're seeing today is a good run rate?

是否有加速的餘地，或者我們今天看到的是良好的運行率？

No, there's legs on acceleration, certainly in C&I, as we continue to build out these new markets.

不，隨著我們繼續開拓這些新市場，加速發展是可能的，尤其是在工商業領域。

What you're going to see us do is more aggressively invest into our retail distribution franchise, very targeted and high volume branch builds in particular markets.

您將看到我們所做的是更積極地投資於我們的零售分銷特許經營權，在特定市場上建立非常有針對性的大容量分支機構。

You know, at the moment, go back to some question of, hey, what if rates are three and a quarter at the front end?

你知道，現在，回到一些問題，嘿，如果前端的利率是三又四分之一怎麼辦？

And what do you earn on deposits?

您透過存款賺取什麼？

The break even on a branch has become a lot easier to achieve.

分支機構的收支平衡變得更容易實現。

And my historical comments on the need for scale are still true.

我對規模化必要性的歷史評論仍然正確。

It just looks like the way we're going to have to get there, at least in the near term is through investment in organic growth and we're good at it.

看起來我們必須透過對有機成長的投資來實現這一目標，至少在短期內是如此，我們很擅長這一點。

We've been executing on it and we'll just continue on.

我們一直在執行，並將繼續執行。

Particularly in the Southwest markets where the momentum is very strong across all our businesses, C&IB retail and the private bank.

特別是在西南市場，我們所有業務、商業與投資銀行零售和私人銀行的勢頭都非常強勁。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

傑拉德·卡西迪，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Hi, Rob.

嗨，羅布。

Hi, Bill.

嗨，比爾。

You guys have done a very good job in managing credit over the years and it shows up again this quarter.

多年來，你們在信貸管理方面做得非常好，本季再次表現出來。

Can we take a look at in the C&I portfolio?

我們可以看看 C&I 投資組合嗎？

What are the trends that you guys might be seeing?

你們可能會看到什麼趨勢？

In your the C&I portfolio or the asset back portfolio or the leverage portfolio.

在您的 C&I 投資組合或資產支持投資組合或槓桿投資組合中。

The trends pretty benign or what are you guys seeing there?

趨勢相當良性，或者你們在那裡看到了什麼？

Not much.

不多。

The margin, we still have more downgrades than upgrades, a very simple ratio across that whole book.

就利潤而言，我們的降級仍然多於升級，這是整本書中非常簡單的比率。

Much of that is driven by margin compression as opposed to anything fundamental with the underlying company.

其中大部分是由利潤壓縮驅動的，而不是基礎公司的任何基本因素。

But now the economy is healthy and company, in our portfolio is healthy.

但現在經濟很健康，我們投資組合中的公司也很健康。

We'll have lumpy one offs.

我們會有一次坎坷的經驗。

There's always some story that happens and we had one of those this quarter actually.

總是會有一些故事發生，本季我們就發生了其中一個故事。

But overall the portfolio feels pretty strong.

但總體而言，該投資組合感覺相當強勁。

(multiple speakers)

（多個發言者）

They're still very acceptable bookable credits.

它們仍然是非常可接受的可預訂積分。

They're just not as strong as the ultra-strong they were.

他們只是沒有超強者那麼強大。

Now, the last time I rated them.

現在，這是我最後一次對他們進行評分。

Got it.

知道了。

And I know you touched on this, on commercial loan growth about companies might be stronger.

我知道你談到了這一點，關於公司的商業貸款成長可能會更強。

Have you seen any evidence that because of the pandemic, because of what companies went through.

你有沒有看到任何證據表明由於大流行、由於公司所經歷的事情。

Your long time customers that you've talked to for years, do you actually see them better managed or stronger because of what happened during the pandemic?

您已經與您交談多年的長期客戶，您是否真的認為他們因為大流行期間發生的事情而得到了更好的管理或更強？

I think that almost has to be true.

我認為這幾乎一定是真的。

It certainly part of the answer to the utilization question by the way, has to be the notion that, you know, basically working capital was free for a bunch of years and all of a sudden it got expensive.

順便說一句，這當然是利用率問題答案的一部分，必須是這樣一個概念，你知道，基本上營運資金多年來都是免費的，但突然之間就變得昂貴了。

So you're looking at places where you can improve margin and you're trying to cut your borrowings and be more efficient at what you're running in inventory and investment.

因此，您正在尋找可以提高利潤的地方，並試圖減少借款並提高庫存和投資的效率。

So, companies did without a lot of stuff during the pandemic and then you learn from that and you try to keep to it right.

因此，公司在大流行期間沒有做很多事情，然後你從中吸取教訓，並努力保持正確。

We'll see.

我們拭目以待。

But, broader message is the economy is fine.

但是，更廣泛的資訊是經濟狀況良好。

Companies are fine.

公司都很好。

Labor still feels strong.

工黨仍然感覺很強大。

You know, a lot of things in the geopolitical horizons that could disrupt that.

你知道，地緣政治領域的許多事情都可能會破壞這一點。

But those are exogenous variables to the basic economy we operate in.

但這些都是我們所處的基本經濟的外生變數。

Great and then just a final follow up.

太棒了，然後就是最後的跟進。

You gave us some good data, of course, on the commercial real estate office portfolio.

當然，您為我們提供了一些有關商業房地產辦公大樓投資組合的良好數據。

What kind of impact or I guess if the cap rates start to come down, when do you start to see that be beneficial for the commercial?

我猜如果資本化率開始下降，會產生什麼樣的影響，您什麼時候開始看到這對商業有利？

I mean, where it could really help the values of those properties?

我的意思是，它能在哪些方面真正幫助這些房產的價值？

I know each property is different, vacancy rates are critical.

我知道每個房產都是不同的，空置率至關重要。

But is there any kind of point that you guys look at the cap rates fell 100 basis points or 150 basis points that would help the valuation process

但你們認為上限利率下降 100 個基點或 150 個基點是否有任何一點可以幫助估值過程

Look, lower cap rate at the margin is to help.

看，較低的邊際資本化率是有幫助的。

I think what you're running into though is you'll have office buildings that, if they're 50% vacant, they'll hit the market.

我認為你遇到的情況是，你的辦公大樓如果有 50% 的空置率，就會推出市場。

And the question will be, can they ever get to normal occupancy through historical absorption rates?

問題是，他們能否透過歷史吸收率達到正常入住率？

And if the answer to that is no, then the value of that building we just saw one in New York is next to zero.

如果答案是否定的，那麼我們剛剛在紐約看到的那棟建築的價值幾乎是零。

If there's a tail on absorption where, yes.

如果吸收有尾巴的話，是的。

I think I can rehab it and get this thing back to my normal, 90%, 95% then it has value as its going concern and it's worth something.

我想我可以修復它，讓這個東西恢復到我的正常狀態，90%、95%，然後它就有價值，因為它的持續經營是有價值的。

The cap rate almost is irrelevant in those two scenarios.

在這兩種情況下，上限利率幾乎都無關緊要。

If the thing is never going to be occupied, it doesn't matter what the cap rate is worth, it's worth land.

如果這個東西永遠不會被佔用，那麼資本化率值多少錢並不重要，它只值土地。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We have reached the end of our question and answer session.

我們的問答環節已經結束。

I would now like to hand the call back over to Bryan Gill for any closing comments.

我現在想將電話轉回布萊恩·吉爾（Bryan Gill）以徵求結束意見。

Okay.

好的。

Well, thank you all for participating on the call this quarter and feel free to reach out to the IR team if you have any follow up questions.

好的，感謝大家參與本季的電話會議，如果您有任何後續問題，請隨時聯絡 IR 團隊。

Thanks a lot, everybody.

非常感謝大家。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This does conclude today's teleconference.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

We appreciate your participation.

我們感謝您的參與。

You may disconnect your lines at this time.

此時您可以斷開線路。

Enjoy the rest of your day.

享受你一天剩下的時間。