PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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Greetings. Welcome to the PNC Financial Services Group Q3 2024 earnings conference call.(Operator Instructions) I will now turn the conference or Brian Graseck, Executive Vice President and Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

問候。 歡迎參加 PNC 金融服務集團 2024 年第 3 季收益電話會議。 謝謝。 你可以開始了。

Well, good morning, and welcome to today's conference call for the P&C finance leases. E&c and participating on this call are PNC's Chairman and CEO; Bill Demchak, and Rob Reilly, Executive Vice President and CFO.

早安，歡迎參加今天的財產險融資租賃電話會議。 E&c 和參加本次電話會議的有 PNC 董事長兼執行長； Bill Demchak 和執行副總裁兼財務長 Rob Reilly。

Today's presentation contains forward-looking information. Cautionary statements about this information as well as reconciliations of non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release, materials sales, as well as our SEC filings and other investor materials. These are all available in our corporate website, PNC.com under Investor Relations. These statements speak only as of October 15, 2024, and PNC undertakes no obligation to update.

今天的演示包含前瞻性資訊。 有關此資訊的警告性聲明以及非公認會計原則措施的調節包含在今天的收益發布、材料銷售以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件和其他投資者資料中。 這些都可以在我們的公司網站 PNC.com 投資者關係下找到。 這些聲明僅截至 2024 年 10 月 15 日，PNC 不承擔更新義務。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Bill.

現在我想把電話轉給比爾。

Thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone. As you've seen, we had a very good third quarter. We executed well and saw a strong momentum across our franchise. We generated $1.5 billion in net income or $3.49 diluted earnings per share from will take you through the details shortly, but I wanted to highlight a few points.

謝謝你，布萊恩，大家早安。 正如您所看到的，我們第三季的業績非常好。 我們執行得很好，並在我們的特許經營中看到了強勁的勢頭。 我們產生了 15 億美元的淨利潤或 3.49 美元的稀釋每股收益，稍後將向您介紹詳細信息，但我想強調幾點。

First, we generated positive operating leverage for the third consecutive quarter. And as an aside, our strong performance has positioned us to deliver positive operating leverage for the full year of 2024. Inside of the third quarter performance and I grew 3%.

首先，我們連續第三個季度產生了正的營運槓桿。 順便說一句，我們強勁的業績使我們能夠在 2024 年全年實現積極的營運槓桿。

And as we continue our growth trajectory towards expected record NI in 2025, our fee income grew 10% with a very strong quarter and capital markets, and we remain disciplined on the expense front. Second, we continue to see strong growth and activity across our franchise. C. and IB. continues to have great momentum as new loan production and commitments increased this quarter.

隨著我們繼續朝著 2025 年預期創紀錄的 NI 的成長軌跡前進，我們的費用收入成長了 10%，季度和資本市場非常強勁，而且我們在費用方面仍然保持紀律。 其次，我們繼續看到我們的特許經營業務的強勁成長和活動。 C.和IB。隨著本季新貸款發放和承諾的增加，該業務繼續保持強勁勢頭。

While overall loan utilization has remained soft, the recent Fed actions to lower interest rates and the expectation of further cuts is likely to spur greater demand as we move ahead. Importantly, we are well positioned to serve our customers with loan growth returns within retail.

儘管整體貸款利用率仍然疲軟，但聯準會最近採取的降息行動以及進一步降息的預期可能會在我們前進的過程中刺激更大的需求。 重要的是，我們有能力為客戶提供零售貸款成長回報。

We continue to invest heavily in our branch network to build density in our most attractive growth markets, and we are seeing success. We continue to grow customer households and checking accounts with the highest customer growth being realized in the Southwest markets.

我們繼續大力投資我們的分支機構網絡，以在最具吸引力的成長市場中建立密度，並且我們正在看到成功。 我們繼續擴大客戶家庭和支票帳戶，其中西南市場的客戶成長最快。

AMG. is accelerating growth and high opportunity markets and benefiting from Faye favorable equity markets. Third, our overall credit quality remains relatively stable, reflecting our thoughtful approach to managing risk, customer selection and long term relationship development.

AMG。正在加速成長和高機會市場，並受益於 Faye 有利的股票市場。 第三，我們的整體信用品質保持相對穩定，反映出我們在風險管理、客戶選擇和長期關係發展方面的深思熟慮。

While we expect additional charge-offs in the CRE office segment were adequately reserved. Lastly, we continued to strengthen our capital levels during the quarter and with the ongoing improvement, NAOCI. or tangible book value per share increased 9%. In summary, we delivered strong results in the quarter and we remain well positioned to continue our momentum.

雖然我們預計商業地產辦公室部門的額外沖銷已被充分保留。 最後，我們在本季度繼續加強我們的資本水平，並隨著 NAOCI 的持續改善。或每股有形帳面價值成長9%。 總而言之，我們在本季度取得了強勁的業績，並且仍然處於繼續保持成長勢頭的有利位置。

In fact, we're in the middle of our strategic planning process, and I can't recall it time when our organic growth opportunities have ever been more attractive. Before I turn it over to Rob for more detail on the financial results and outlook, I'd like to say thank you to our employees for everything they do for our customers. In our company.

事實上，我們正​​處於策略規劃過程中，我不記得什麼時候我們的有機成長機會變得更有吸引力了。 在我將其交給 Rob 以了解有關財務業績和前景的更多詳細資訊之前，我想對我們的員工為客戶所做的一切表示感謝。 在我們公司。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Rob to take you through the quarter were up.

接下來，我將把它交給 Rob，帶您了解本季的情況。

Thanks, Will, and good morning, everyone. Our balance sheet is on slide 4 and is presented on an average linked quarter basis. Loans at $320 billion were stable. Investment securities increased slightly by $1 billion or 1%, and our cash balances at the Federal Reserve for $45 billion, an increase of $4 billion or 10%. Deposit balances grew 5 billion or 1% and averaged $422 billion.

謝謝威爾，大家早安。 我們的資產負債表在投影片 4 上，以平均關聯季度為基礎呈現。 3200 億美元的貸款保持穩定。 投資證券小幅增加了 10 億美元，即 1%，我們在聯準會的現金餘額為 450 億美元，增加了 40 億美元，即 10%。 存款餘額增加 50 億美元，成長 1%，平均為 4,220 億美元。

We borrowed funds decreased $1 billion or 2%, primarily due to the maturity of FHLB advances, partially offset by parent company debt issuances. At quarter end, AOCI. was negative $5.1 billion, an improvement of $2.4 billion or 32% compared at June 30th. Our tangible book value increased to approximately $97 per common share, which was a 9% increase linked quarter at 24% increase compared to the same period a year ago.

我們借入的資金減少了 10 億美元，即 2%，主要是由於 FHLB 預付款到期，部分被母公司債務發行所抵銷。 季度末，AOCI。負 51 億美元，與 6 月 30 日相比增加了 24 億美元，即 32%。 我們的有形帳面價值增加至每股普通股約 97 美元，較上季成長 9%，與去年同期相比成長 24%。

We remain well capitalized in our estimated CYT. one ratio increased to 10.3% as of September 30. Regarding the Basel three and gain. While certain aspects of the proposed rules are likely to change, we estimate our revised standardized ratio, which includes AOCI., to be 9.2% at quarter end. We continue to be well positioned with capital flexibility, and we returned roughly $800 million of capital to shareholders during the quarter through common dividends and share repurchases.

我們預計的 CYT 資本充足。截至9月30日，這一比率增至10.3%。 雖然擬議規則的某些方面可能會發生變化，但我們估計修訂後的標準化比率（包括 AOCI）在季度末為 9.2%。 我們在資本彈性方面繼續處於有利地位，本季我們透過普通股利和股票回購向股東返還了約 8 億美元的資本。

Slide 5 shows our loans in more detail. Average loan balances of $320 billion were flat compared to the second quarter, as well as the same period a year ago. And the yield on total loans increased eight basis points to 6.13% in the third quarter. Commercial loans were stable at $219 billion linked quarter as utilization rates remained low and well below the historical average of roughly 55%.

幻燈片 5 更詳細地展示了我們的貸款。 平均貸款餘額為 3,200 億美元，與第二季和去年同期相比持平。 第三季貸款總額收益率上升8個基點至6.13%。 由於利用率仍然較低且遠低於約 55% 的歷史平均水平，商業貸款穩定在 2,190 億美元的季度水平。

We continue to have confidence that commercial loan demand will return in the coming quarters as our loan commitments continue to increase, and we expect business investment to return to historical levels. Consumer loans averaged $101 billion and were stable with the second quarter as growth in auto loans was mostly offset by a decline in residential real estate balances.

我們仍然相信，隨著我們的貸款承諾繼續增加，商業貸款需求將在未來幾季恢復，我們預計商業投資將恢復到歷史水平。 消費貸款平均為 1,010 億美元，與第二季度保持穩定，因為汽車貸款的增長大部分被住宅房地產餘額的下降所抵消。

Slide 6 details our investment security and swap portfolios. Average investment securities of $142 billion increased to $1 billion or 1%. The securities portfolio yield increased 24 basis points to 3.08%, driven by higher rates on new purchases and the full quarter impact of the securities repositioning.

投影片 6 詳細介紹了我們的投資安全和掉期投資組合。 平均投資證券從 1,420 億美元增加到 10 億美元，即 1%。 受新購買利率上升以及證券重新定位對整個季度影響的推動，證券投資組合收益率上升 24 個基點至 3.08%。

As of September 30, our securities portfolio duration was approximately 3.3 years. Our active receive fixed rate swaps to the commercial loan book totaled $33 billion at September 30, and the weighted average rate increased 58 basis points to 3.08%.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們的證券投資組合久期約為 3.3 年。 截至 9 月 30 日，我們主動向商業貸款帳簿收取的固定利率互換總額為 330 億美元，加權平均利率上升 58 個基點至 3.08%。

Our forward starting swaps were $15 billion with a weighted average receive rate of 4.26%. Importantly, with our forward starting swaps, we've locked in the replacement yield on the majority of our 2025 swap maturities at levels higher than existing swaps and current market rates.

我們的遠期起始互換金額為 150 億美元，加權平均接收率為 4.26%。 重要的是，透過我們的遠期啟動掉期，我們將大部分 2025 年掉期到期的替代收益率鎖定在高於現有掉期和當前市場利率的水平。

Turning to slide 7. We expect considerable runoff of lower yielding securities and swaps, which will allow us to continue to reinvest into higher yielding assets over the next couple of years. Accumulated other comprehensive income improved by approximately $2.4 billion or 32% to negative $5.1 billion on September 30th, compared to negative $7.4 billion on June 30. The linked quarter improvement in AOCI was primarily due to lower rates, which benefited our swap and available for sale portfolio valuations.

轉向投影片 7。 9 月30 日，累計其他綜合收益增加約24 億美元或32%，達到負51 億美元，而6 ​​月30 日為負74 億美元。的掉期和可供出售投資組合估價。

Going forward, AOCI. related to the securities and swaps as well as our held to maturity portfolio, will accrete back as they mature and prepaid, resulting in further growth to tangible book value.

繼續前進，AOCI。與證券和掉期以及我們持有至到期投資組合相關的資金將隨著到期和預付而增加，從而導致有形帳面價值進一步增長。

Slide 8, it covers our deposit balances in more detail. Average deposits increased $5 billion or 1%, reflecting an increase in interest bearing commercial balances as well as higher time deposits for regarding mix. Non-interest bearing deposits were stable at $96 billion and remained at 23% of total average deposits.

第 8 張投影片更詳細地介紹了我們的存款餘額。 平均存款增加 50 億美元，即 1%，反映了計息商業餘額的增加以及相關組合的定期存款的增加。 無利息存款穩定在 960 億美元，佔平均存款總額的 23%。

Our rate paid on interest-bearing deposits increased 11 basis points during the third quarter to 2.72%, reflecting growth in commercial interest bearing deposits. We believe our total rate paid on deposits has reached its peak level and with the 50 basis point cut in September, we've already begun to reduce deposit pricing.

第三季我們的計息存款利率上升 11 個基點至 2.72%，反映了商業計息存款的成長。 我們相信我們的存款總利率已經達到了最高水平，隨著9月份下調50個基點，我們已經開始降低存款定價。

Looking forward, we expect the Federal Reserve to cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points at both in November and December and pricing, particularly within our high beta commercial interest bearing deposits.

展望未來，我們預計聯準會將在 11 月和 12 月將基準利率和定價下調 25 個基點，特別是在我們的高貝塔商業有息存款方面。

Turning to slide 9, we highlight our income statement trends. Third quarter net income was $1.5 billion or $3.49 per share. Comparing the third quarter to the second quarter, total revenue of $5.4 billion increased $21 million. Net interest income grew by one 8 million or 3%, and our net interest margin was 2.64%, an increase of four basis points. Fee income increased $176 million or 10%. Other noninterest income was 69 million and included negative 128 million of Visa related activity.

轉向投影片 9，我們重點介紹了損益表趨勢。 第三季淨利為 15 億美元，即每股 3.49 美元。 第三季與第二季相比，總營收為 54 億美元，增加了 2,100 萬美元。 淨利息收入成長1.8百萬元，成長3%，淨利差2.64%，提升4個基點。 手續費收入增加 1.76 億美元，成長 10%。 其他非利息收入為 6,900 萬美元，其中包括負 1.28 億美元的 Visa 相關活動。

Noninterest expense at $3.3 billion decreased $30 million or 1%. As a result, PPNR grew 2% linked quarter, and we generated positive operating leverage for the third consecutive quarter. Provision was $243 million, reflecting portfolio activity and our effective tax rate was 19.2%. Turning to slide 10, we highlight our revenue trends. Third quarter revenue increased $21 million, driven by higher fee and net interest income, partially offset by lower other non-interest income.

非利息支出為 33 億美元，減少了 3,000 萬美元，即 1%。 結果，PPNR 環比增長了 2%，我們連續第三個季度產生了正的營運槓桿。 準備金為 2.43 億美元，反映了投資組合活動，我們的有效稅率為 19.2%。 轉向幻燈片 10，我們重點介紹了我們的收入趨勢。 由於費用和淨利息收入增加，第三季收入增加了 2,100 萬美元，但被其他非利息收入減少部分抵消。

Non-interest income included negative $128 million of Visa related activity. Net interest income of $3.4 billion increased $100 million or 3%, driven by higher yields on interest-earning assets. Fee income was $2 billion, increased $176 million or 10% linked quarter.

非利息收入包括負 1.28 億美元的 Visa 相關活動。 由於生息資產收益率上升，淨利息收入增加 1 億美元，成長 34 億美元，成長 3%。 手續費收入為 20 億美元，季增 1.76 億美元，成長 10%。

Looking at the detail, asset management and brokerage income grew $19 million or 5%, reflecting favorable equity and fixed income market performance. Capital markets and advisory fees increased approximately $100 million or 36%, driven by higher M&A advisory activity as well as broad growth across most categories.

從細節來看，資產管理和經紀收入成長了 1,900 萬美元，即 5%，反映出良好的股票和固定收益市場表現。 由於併購諮詢活動增加以及大多數類別的廣泛增長，資本市場和諮詢費用增加了約 1 億美元，即 36%。

Card encashment decreased 8 million or 1% as higher treasury management revenue was more than offset by credit card origination incentives. Lending and deposit revenue grew $16 million or 5% due to increased customer activity.

由於資金管理收入的增加被信用卡發行激勵措施所抵消，信用卡兌現減少了 800 萬筆或 1%。 由於客戶活動增加，貸款和存款收入增加了 1,600 萬美元，即 5%。

Mortgage revenue was up 50 million linked quarter, driven by a $59 million increase in the valuation of net mortgage servicing rights. Other noninterest income of 69 million included Visa derivative fair value adjustments of negative $128 million, primarily related to these the September announcement of a $1.5 billion litigation escrow funding.

由於淨抵押貸款服務權估值增加了 5,900 萬美元，抵押貸款收入較上季增加了 5,000 萬美元。 其他 6,900 萬美元的非利息收入包括負 1.28 億美元的 Visa 衍生性商品公允價值調整，主要與 9 月宣布的 15 億美元訴訟託管資金有關。

Notably, we continue to see strong momentum across our lines of business and throughout our markets. And year to date, non-interest income of $6 billion grew approximately $400 million or 7% compared to the same period last year.

值得注意的是，我們繼續看到我們的業務線和整個市場的強勁勢頭。 今年迄今為止，非利息收入為 60 億美元，與去年同期相比增長了約 4 億美元，即 7%。

Turning to slide 11, our non-interest expense of 3.3 billion declined $30 million or 1% excluding the second quarter, $120 million contribution expense to the PNC Foundation. Noninterest expense increased 92 or 3% linked quarter. Personnel expense increased $87 million or 5%, reflecting higher incentive compensation related to increased business activity. Importantly, all other categories declined or remained stable.

轉向投影片 11，我們 33 億美元的非利息支出下降了 3,000 萬美元，即 1%，不包括第二季向 PNC 基金會捐款 1.2 億美元的支出。非利息支出較上季成長 92%，即 3%。 人員費用增加了 8,700 萬美元，即 5%，反映出與業務活動增加相關的激勵薪酬增加。 重要的是，所有其他類別均下降或保持穩定。

Year-to-date non-interest expenses increased by $80 million or 1%, excluding $130 million SD. I see special assessment and $120 million foundation contribution expense in 2020 for noninterest expense is down 2% compared to the same period a year ago. We remain diligent in our continuous improvement efforts. We increased our CIP. goal last quarter from $425 million to $450 million, and we're on track to achieve that goal in 2024.

年初至今的非利息支出增加了 8,000 萬美元，即 1%，其中不包括 1.3 億美元的標準差。我認為 2020 年非利息費用的特別評估和 1.2 億美元基金會捐款費用比去年同期下降了 2%。 我們仍然勤奮地持續改善。 我們提高了 CIP。上季的目標從 4.25 億美元增至 4.5 億美元，我們預計在 2024 年實現這一目標。

As you know, this program funds a significant portion of our ongoing business and technology investments. Our credit metrics are presented on slide 12. Nonperforming loans increased $75 million or 3% linked quarter, primarily driven by an increase in CRE office loans. Total delinquencies of $1.3 billion were stable with June 30.

如您所知，該計劃為我們正在進行的業務和技術投資提供了很大一部分資金。 我們的信用指標如幻燈片 12 所示。 截至 6 月 30 日，拖欠總額穩定在 13 億美元。

Net loan charge-offs were $286 million. The $24 million linked quarter increase was driven primarily by lower commercial recoveries and our annualized net charge-offs to average loans ratio was 36 basis points. Our allowance for credit losses totaled $5.3 billion or 1.7% of total loans on September 30, stable at June 30.

貸款沖銷淨額為 2.86 億美元。 季度環比成長 2,400 萬美元，主要是由於商業復甦率下降，而我們的年化淨沖銷與平均貸款比率為 36 個基點。 截至 9 月 30 日，我們的信貸損失準備金總額為 53 億美元，佔貸款總額的 1.7%，與 6 月 30 日持平。

Slide 13 provides more detail on our CRE off as credit metrics. We continue to see stress in the office portfolio given the challenges inherent in this book and a lack of demand for office properties. Cre office criticized loans were essentially stable linked quarter, but NPLs increased due to the migration of criticized loans loans to nonperforming status. Net loan charge-offs within the CRE office portfolio were down slightly.

投影片 13 提供了有關我們的 CRE 作為信用指標的更多詳細資訊。 鑑於本書固有的挑戰以及對辦公物業的需求缺乏，我們繼續看到辦公大樓投資組合面臨壓力。 Cre辦公室批評貸款與季度掛鉤基本穩定，但由於批評貸款向不良狀態遷移，不良貸款有所增加。 商業地產辦公室投資組合內的淨貸款沖銷略有下降。

However, going forward, we expect additional charge-offs on this book, the sides of which will vary quarter to quarter. Given the nature of the loans. As of September 30, our reserves on the overall office portfolio were 11.3%, and inside of that, 16% on the multi-tenant portfolio, both up slightly from prior quarter.

然而，展望未來，我們預計這本書會出現額外的沖銷，沖銷金額每季都會有所不同。 鑑於貸款的性質。 截至 9 月 30 日，我們在整個辦公大樓投資組合中的儲備為 11.3%，其中多租戶投資組合為 16%，均較上一季略有上升。

The modest increase in reserves reflects the continued valuation adjustments across the portfolio and specific reserves for certain credits. Furthermore, CRE office balances declined 4% were approximately $270 million linked quarter as we continue to manage our exposure down.

準備金的小幅成長反映了整個投資組合和某些信貸的特定準備金的持續估值調整。 此外，隨著我們繼續控制風險敞口，CRE 辦公室餘額下降了 4%，約 2.7 億美元。

Accordingly, we believe we're adequately reserved. In summary, PNC reported a solid third quarter regarding a view of the overall economy. We're expecting continued economic growth in the fourth quarter, resulting in real GDP growth of approximately 2% in 2024, and unemployment remains slightly above 4% through year end. We expect the Fed cut rates to additional times in 2024 with a 25 basis point decrease in November and another in December.

因此，我們相信我們有足夠的保留。 總而言之，PNC 報告稱，從整體經濟角度來看，第三季表現強勁。 我們預計第四季經濟將持續成長，到 2024 年實際 GDP 成長約為 2%，失業率到年底仍略高於 4%。 我們預計聯準會將在 2024 年進一步降息，11 月和 12 月分別降息 25 個基點。

Looking at the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the third quarter of 2024, we expect average loans to be stable. Net interest income to be up approximately 1%. Fee income to be down 5% to 7% due to the elevated third quarter capital markets and MSR levels. Other noninterest income to be in the range of $150 million and $200 million, excluding Visa activity.

與 2024 年第三季相比，我們預計 2024 年第四季平均貸款將保持穩定。 淨利息收入將增加約1%。 由於第三季資本市場和 MSR 水準上升，費用收入將下降 5% 至 7%。 其他非利息收入在 1.5 億至 2 億美元之間，不包括 Visa 活動。

Taking the component pieces of revenue together, we expect total revenue to be stable. We expect total noninterest expense to be up 2% to 3%, and we expect fourth quarter net charge-offs to be approximately 300 million. Importantly, considering our year-to-date results and fourth quarter expectations were on track to generate full year positive operating leverage.

將各個收入組成部分放在一起，我們預計總收入將保持穩定。 我們預計非利息支出總額將成長 2% 至 3%，第四季淨沖銷額約為 3 億美元。 重要的是，考慮到我們今年迄今的業績和第四季度的預期，預計將產生全年正營運槓桿。

And with that, Will and I are ready to take your questions.

至此，威爾和我準備好回答你們的問題了。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Erika Najarian, UBS.

謝謝。 （操作員說明）Erika Najarian，UBS。

Good morning, Ronnie Smith Barney. And a little bit of the commentary you made on this swap. So I guess first part of this question, the Street on your asset on your active flopped went up quite a bit quarter to quarter, implying that what's rolling off as well. Sub one that you went from two 50 to 3 oh eight. So I'm wondering if you could confirm that.

早上好，羅尼·史密斯·巴尼。 以及您對這次交換所做的一些評論。 所以我想這個問題的第一部分是，你的主動翻牌資產的街價每季都上漲了很多，這意味著資產也在下降。 子一，你從兩個 50 變成了 3 哦八。 所以我想知道你能否證實這一點。

And looking forward, I think you said something in your prepared remarks about replacing expiring 25 slots at a higher fixed rate on overseas fixed rate. And you thought to maybe just clarify that statement as well, but what's the share?

展望未來，我認為您在準備好的發言中提到了以海外固定利率更高的固定利率替換即將到期的 25 個時段。 您也想澄清一下這一說法，但是份額是多少？

Good morning, Eric. So yes, you're right. Again, all of this. And in terms of your question, it points to what is occurring, which is that are repricing of our fixed rate assets, including our securities loans and swaps is occurring at higher rates.

早安，埃里克。 所以是的，你是對的。 再說一遍，這一切。 就你的問題而言，它指出了正在發生的事情，即我們的固定利率資產（包括我們的證券貸款和掉期）正在以更高的利率進行重新定價。

So that's that's all of what we've been talking about for awhile, true in terms of the swaps, new swaps are at a higher rate than the old swaps. And then as you recall back in now come back in the spring, we did execute some forward swaps that lock in rates for maturing assets and 25 that contribute to our statement, which we might as well confirm upfront or NI being a record levels in 2025 where they can do it.

這就是我們一段時間以來一直在討論的所有內容，就掉期而言，新的掉期利率高於舊的掉期利率。 然後，正如您所記得的那樣，在春天回來時，我們確實執行了一些遠期掉期，這些遠期掉期鎖定了到期資產的利率，並為我們的聲明做出了貢獻，我們不妨預先確認NI 或NI 在2025 年達到創紀錄水平他們可以在哪裡做到這一點。

Got it. Okay. And just the second part of my question, that's the mechanical side. Now on the strategic side, Bill, it's been such a long time since the market has seen a neutral rate of not zero. You know, everybody's talked about deposit betas, but as we think about what the natural in a deposit cost for for P&C, how should we think about what the spread is, let's say we settle at 2.75, 3% in terms of Fed funds.

知道了。 好的。 這只是我問題的第二部分，即機械方面。 現在在策略方面，比爾，市場已經很久沒有出現不為零的中性利率了。 你知道，每個人都在談論存款貝塔值，但當我們考慮財產和意外險的存款成本自然是多少時，我們應該如何考慮利差是多少，假設我們以聯邦基金的價格計算為2.75，即3 %。

What's the spread in terms of ad or fund nationally? We had a quick follow-up to rebates or and liability side of the balance sheet. Is there on what drove the strength and has it was that mostly corporate? And is that permanent balances or is that you get some corporate balance is just part for now given the uncertainty in the market?

全國的廣告或資金分佈是多少？ 我們對資產負債表的回扣或負債方面進行了快速跟進。 是否有任何因素推動了這種力量，並且主要是公司的力量？ 鑑於市場的不確定性，這是永久餘額還是您獲得的一些公司餘額只是目前的一部分？

So I give a specific answer to where we might end up at good rates paid upfront rates on a whole, but create change, which I expect they will. You know, practically you can see most of that yourself, right. So the zero cost deposits are obviously worth a lot or if there's any state this to the curve, we get that benefit with our fixed-rate assets. So maybe inside of your question is all else equal. If we end up in an environment where front rates are three and change and back rates are somewhat higher than that, that's the really attractive environment for banks.

因此，我給出了一個具體的答案，即我們最終可能會在整體上以良好的價格支付預付款，但會創造變化，我希望他們會這樣做。 你知道，實際上你自己可以看到其中的大部分，對吧。 因此，零成本存款顯然很有價值，或者如果曲線有任何狀態，我們就可以透過固定利率資產獲得這種好處。 所以也許你的問題裡面其他一切都是平等的。 如果我們最終處於一個前端利率為三、找零利率和後端利率略高於此的環境中，那麼這對銀行來說才是真正有吸引力的環境。

Ourselves included. And then the second part of that, Erica, with some of that the outperformance that out of out of the balances came on the commercial interest bearing side as commercial clients continue to available cash on their balance sheet. Our expectation that will hold for the most part through the end of the year.

我們自己也包括在內。 然後是第二部分，埃里卡，隨著商業客戶繼續在其資產負債表上使用現金，其中一些超出餘額的出色表現出現在商業利息方面。 我們的預期將在很大程度上維持到今年年底。

John Pancari, Evercore.

約翰·潘卡里，Evercore。

Morning, Jonathan, on the on the loan side, still balances are clearly still pressure of the new flight line utilization down a bit to 50.7 and below your historical. Could maybe talk about the demand, the underlying demand trends that you are seeing and what are you you think is going to be the biggest catalyst to get borrowers off the sidelines of borrowing? Is a continued rate cut confidence in that front? Is that the election? If you could just maybe give us some thoughts there? And what do you think Q3 is reasonable as you enter 2025 banks?

早上，喬納森，在貸款方面，餘額顯然仍然受到新航線利用率下降至 50.7 並低於歷史水平的壓力。 也許可以談談需求，您所看到的潛在需求趨勢，以及您認為什麼是讓借款人不再藉貸的最大催化劑？ 持續降息對這方面有信心嗎？ 這就是選舉嗎？ 您能否給我們一些想法？ 當您進入 2025 年銀行時，您認為第三季合理嗎？

Hey, John, it's Rob Bond. So we are all year. We've yet that deliver the loan growth that we thought was coming at the at some future point. And for all the obvious reasons that you've seen utilization is low and there is a bit of a pause feeling, obviously, with the election coming and the rate environment, while we point to in terms of the constructive front is we do continue to add customers.

嘿，約翰，我是羅布邦德。 所以我們都是一整年。 我們尚未實現我們認為在未來某個時刻會出現的貸款成長。 出於所有顯而易見的原因，您已經看到利用率很低，而且隨著選舉的臨近和利率環境，顯然有一點停頓的感覺，而我們在建設性方面指出的是，我們確實會繼續添加客戶。

We do continue to add loan commitments quarter over quarter. So our commercial clients are putting those lines in place with anticipation of borrowing. So that's a constructive sign. And then use you've seen below inventory levels are low CapEx to sales levels.

我們確實繼續逐季增加貸款承諾。 因此，我們的商業客戶正在設定這些額度，以期獲得借款。 所以這是一個建設性的跡象。 然後使用您在下面看到的庫存水準相對於銷售水準而言資本支出較低。

So it does feel as though we're at the point of the cycle to where loan growth is not too far off. Okay.

因此，我們確實覺得我們正處於貸款成長不久的周期點。 好的。

Thanks, Rob, for that. And then separately, capital markets clearly has been appointed strength. Can you maybe just provide us a little bit of color on the on the pipeline there? And do you expect the pullback in the fourth quarter of these highlights? I was just how should we think the other side?

謝謝你，羅布。 然後單獨來看，資本市場顯然已經被任命為實力。 您能否為我們提供一些有關管道的資訊？ 您預計這些亮點會在第四季回檔嗎？ 我只是對方該怎麼想？

Yes, we do expand that a little bit in terms of our fee guidance for the fourth quarter. So we're pointing to down five to seven years. And all of that decline has been driven by the elevated NSR levels and the elevated capital markets levels that we achieved in the third quarter.

是的，我們確實在第四季度的費用指導方面擴大了一點。 所以我們預計會減少五到七年。 所有這些下降都是由我們在第三季度實現的 NSR 水平上升和資本市場水平上升所推動的。

For the fourth quarter. The MSRs is pretty straightforward. We don't expect that have those levels in the fourth quarter. And then on the capital market side, on the short answer is we probably pulled a little bit of the fourth quarter activity into the third quarter. A lot of that is that our Harris Williams, M&A and advisory businesses that had a really strong third quarter as well as some of the other product Capital Markets story. So it's a little bit lumpy.

對於第四季。 MSR 非常簡單。 我們預計第四季不會達到這樣的水平。 然後在資本市場方面，簡短的回答是我們可能將第四季的一些活動推遲到第三季。 其中很大一部分是我們的哈里斯威廉斯（Harris Williams）、併購和諮詢業務第三季度的表現非常強勁，以及資本市場的其他一些產品的故事。 所以它有點凹凸不平。

The pipelines, though our strong momentum is strong on capital markets year over year is up north of 23% by the back half of 24, including our capital markets. Guidance for the fourth quarter is up 20% over the first half. So the momentum is there a process not necessarily going to fall linearly quarter to quarter data? All right.

儘管我們在資本市場上的勢頭強勁，但截至 24 月下半年，包括我們的資本市場在內，管道數量同比增長了 23% 以上。 第四季指引值較上半年上漲 20%。 那麼動力是否有一個過程不一定會逐季度數據線性下降？ 好的。

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

斯科特·西弗斯，派珀·桑德勒。

Morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the question. I guess I wanted to follow up just a little bit on sort of the lending and deposit discussion. I guess, first, just kind of qualitatively, do you have a sense for what a lending recovery might look like, what it does come back?

早安，大家。 感謝您提出問題。 我想我想稍微跟進一下貸款和存款的討論。 我想，首先，從定性的角度來說，您是否了解貸款復甦可能會是什麼樣子，以及它會帶來什麼？

And I guess the context of that, as I recall a time when the bank loans used to grow at a multiple of GDP, but it's been quite a while since we've seen that from maybe just some some top-level thoughts there. And then on the other side of the balance sheet, just maybe your sense for how deposit costs behave Fleming does come back better, you all. And I think a lot of the industry, our great from a liquidity perspective.

我猜當時的背景，因為我記得銀行貸款曾經以 GDP 的倍數成長，但我們已經很久沒有從一些高層想法中看到這一點了。 然後在資產負債表的另一邊，也許你們對弗萊明存款成本表現的感覺確實恢復得更好了，你們大家。 我認為很多產業從流動性的角度來看都很棒。

So curious how much competition factors into your thinking as well, we can come up with 10 different theories on why loan growth hasn't been there and what it might come back. But all of them are being making a series of it's been below trend on utilization, a bunch of votes certainty about the least of which is the last year that rates and all the other things that may impact it.

出於好奇，您的想法中也有多少競爭因素，我們可以提出 10 種不同的理論來解釋為什麼貸款成長沒有出現以及貸款成長可能會出現什麼情況。 但他們所有人都在進行一系列的利用率低於趨勢的投票，其中最少的是去年的利率和所有其他可能影響它的因素。

But it's, you know, it's all of the reasons why we kind of said, look at all or produce growth for our shareholders without having to rely a lot made of story as to why there might be a slow growth. If there is it's terrific that at some point it will come back.

但這就是我們所說的所有原因，為我們的股東著眼於整體或創造成長，而不必依賴大量的故事來解釋為什麼成長可能會緩慢。 如果有的話，那就太好了，在某個時候它會回來。

But I've given up trying to forecast it versus what the funding side. We are very liquid. So we have an opportunity should it arise. We have a lot of capital and cash about the great thing for us. You know, I have also balance at the Fed this 35 spot, 45 average, so a lot. So I don't know that it's going to have impact our funding costs whatsoever.

但我已經放棄嘗試預測它與資金方面的情況。 我們的流動性很強。 因此，如果出現這種情況，我們就有機會。 我們擁有大量的資本和現金來完成對我們來說偉大的事情。 你知道，我在美聯儲也有餘額 35 個點，平均 45 個點，所以很多。 所以我不知道這會對我們的融資成本產生任何影響。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

馬特‧奧康納，德意志銀行。

Good morning. Any updated thoughts on where do you think your net interest margin normalizes? I think at one point a couple of months ago you said it could approach 3%. I think it was by the end of next year, updated thoughts on that given the forward curve and your outlook for the balance sheet.

早安. 關於您認為淨利差正常化的情況，有什麼最新的想法嗎？ 我想幾個月前你曾說過可能會接近 3%。 我認為是在明年年底，考慮到遠期曲線和您對資產負債表的展望，更新了對此的想法。

Thanks. Hey, Matt, it's Rob. I do recall you asking the question before and the answer is going to pay the same, which is the name is increasing. We don't we don't manage to name as an outcome that we've operated close to three. My expectation is that will approach those levels. I don't remember saying by the end of 25, but maybe that's something that you added in.

謝謝。 嘿，馬特，我是羅布。 我記得你之前問過這個問題，答案是支付相同的費用，即名稱不斷增加。 我們不知道，我們無法將我們已經操作了接近三個的結果命名為結果。 我的期望是會接近這些水準。 我不記得在 25 年底之前說過，但也許這是你添加的。

But the way we're on our way up and down three is reasonable through time. Okay. I know it's hard to read up. And then just separately, you've always been very strong and commercial lending and probably a few businesses that come from that. The consumer side has always been a little bit less of a focus, but I think you've been winning in some areas like credit card around the edges.

但隨著時間的推移，我們在三分上下的走勢是合理的。 好的。 我知道讀起來很難。 然後單獨來說，你們一直非常強大的商業貸款，可能還有一些由此而來的業務。 消費者方面一直不太受關注，但我認為你在信用卡等一些領域取得了勝利。

And just any updated thoughts in terms of what could be growth drivers as we think about consumer lending, consumer affairs next couple of years?

當我們考慮未來幾年的消費貸款、消費者事務時，關於什麼可能成為成長動力，有什麼最新的想法嗎？

Look, we've firm historically, we have under invested and we've under we are underpenetrated with our existing clients and consumer loan consumer. Yes. And that's our opportunity set . I don't know that we need to be a road can be go beyond that, but we ought to have the same penetration rate than our peers to. With respect to our consumer lending, there's a fairly material upside should have we can pull that off and we're investing to be able to do so. We've introduced a new credit card and plans to continue to do that along those lines.

看，我們歷史上一直很堅定，我們的投資不足，我們對現有客戶和消費貸款消費者的滲透不足。 是的。 這就是我們的機會。 我不知道我們需要成為一條可以超越的道路，但我們應該擁有與同行相同的滲透率。 就我們的消費貸款而言，如果我們能夠實現這一目標，那麼應該有相當大的優勢，並且我們正在投資以實現這一目標。 我們推出了新的信用卡，並計劃繼續這樣做。

Okay. What do you think you'll start?

好的。 你認為你會開始什麼？

We'll start seeing some of those efforts kick in and we are seeing pretty good credit card volume growth for the industry and that most peers and obviously has a little bit of a lag. But what do you think some of those efforts will be a little bit more evident? I know that I have a timeline on it.

我們將開始看到其中一些努力開始發揮作用，我們看到該行業的信用卡數量增長相當不錯，而大多數同行顯然有一點滯後。 但您認為其中一些努力會更加明顯嗎？ 我知道我有一個時間表。

I would tell you that we're invested in people are investing in our own credit management capabilities and our marketing and our product delivery at all of the close of that will be at a hopefully through time, allows us to good penetration. We should have. I don't know what the timeliness of that, but I know it's a journey of I know we need to started and we were barely getting out there.

我想告訴你，我們對人們的投資是對我們自己的信用管理能力、我們的行銷和產品交付的投資，希望隨著時間的推移，我們能夠實現良好的滲透。 我們應該有。 我不知道這有多及時，但我知道這是一段旅程，我知道我們需要開始，但我們才剛走出去。

Bill Carcache, Wolfe Research.

比爾‧卡卡什，沃爾夫研究中心。

Good morning, Bill and Rob. Following up on your loan growth commentary. You've had a lot of success over the years and taking share within C&I if we do get a reacceleration in loan growth over, say, the next year. So how does that influence your ability to continue to take share and perhaps outpace industry growth, erect, recognizing your competitors, obviously in a way willingly ceding share?

早上好，比爾和羅布。 跟進您的貸款成長評論。 多年來，如果我們的貸款成長確實重新加速，例如明年，你們已經取得了巨大的成功，並且在工商業中佔據了份額。 那麼，這會如何影響你繼續佔據市場份額，甚至超越行業成長、建立、承認你的競爭對手的能力，顯然是以一種願意放棄市場份額的方式呢？

Well, I think that will show up. We are growing DHYD. and winning new clients at a record pace, I think. So when utilization comes back, the others we have in the past, my best guess is we would outperform THAT IS our loan commitments on 500 at the moment, but they've been put in place.

嗯，我想這會出現的。 我們正在種植 DHYD。我認為，並以創紀錄的速度贏得新客戶。 因此，當利用率恢復時，我們過去擁有的其他貸款，我最好的猜測是，我們目前的表現將優於我們對 500 的貸款承諾，但它們已經落實到位。

And I think the most of the momentum that we see it in our Southwest markets where we are achieving record levels and would expect to be above average if that all plays out as we expect that.

我認為我們在西南市場看到的最大動力是，我們正在達到創紀錄的水平，如果一切按照我們的預期進行，預計將高於平均水平。

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Thanks. That's helpful. And then separately on non-interest bearing deposits, you expect rates on your interest bearing deposits to decline starting next quarter, but how long before you'd expect to see the effect of lower rates relating to a compensating balances?

謝謝。 這很有幫助。 然後，就非計息存款而言，您預計計息存款利率將從下個季度開始下降，但您預計多久才能看到與補償性餘額相關的較低利率的影響？

Yes, I don't know. That's that's that's a tough one to answer. I mean what we are encouraged about this that we've clearly stabilized now for a couple of quarters at the levels that we are following several quarters, a pretty substantial decline. So we've stabilized that a lot of areas in terms of what sort of the magic short-term rate is that kicks setup, but no one has a definitive answer.

是的，我不知道。 這是一個很難回答的問題。 我的意思是，我們對此感到鼓舞的是，我們已經在幾個季度內明顯穩定在我們幾個季度之後的水平，這是一個相當大的下降。 因此，我們已經穩定了許多領域，即哪種神奇的短期利率會啟動設置，但沒有人有明確的答案。

Right. But is the credit that you give customers are compensating balances are sort of lever that you'd expect to use we'd be willing to use as you look to grow non-interest bearing deposits?

正確的。 但是，當您希望增加無利息存款時，您向客戶提供的用於補償餘額的信貸是否是您希望使用的槓桿？

I'm just trying to think through whether that's a potential something that could spur growth. You should assume the crediting rate is below market versus open deposit rate. And so it's not going to have a movie in beta for some period of time relative to rates coming down. It's relatively constant and we're fine with that.

我只是想思考這是否是一個可以刺激成長的潛在因素。 您應該假設存入利率低於市場利率與未結存款利率。 因此，相對於票價的下降，在一段時間內不會有處於測試階段的電影。 它相對穩定，我們對此感到滿意。

But if I could squeeze in one last one. If I trajectory that you laid out for 2025 plays out as anticipated, is there any reason why the positive operating leverage commentary that you laid out is very helpful, but any reason why the efficiency ratio wouldn't get down into sort of that high 50% range?

但如果我能擠進最後一張就好了。 如果您為 2025 年制定的發展軌跡符合預期，那麼您提出的積極營運槓桿評論是否非常有幫助，但效率比率不會下降到那麼高的 50 有什麼原因？

It seems like the math would suggest that, that that could get there. But we appreciate your thoughts. We'll have to see the work that we're in the process of doing our budgeting for next year right now. So we'll add more for you on that in our January call.

數學似乎表明，這可以實現。 但我們感謝您的想法。 我們現在必須看到我們正在為明年制定預算的工作。 因此，我們將在 1 月的電話會議中為您添加更多相關內容。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

麥克梅奧，富國銀行。

Will, your prior comment that you expect record NI in 2025, do you feel more less or just as confident as before? And what sort of loan growth you kind of assume for next year, but we will the sedative we didn't feel confident to begin with.

您之前曾表示預計 2025 年 NI 會創歷史新高，您是否會像以前一樣感到信心不足或信心不足？ 你預計明年的貸款成長會是什麼樣的，但我們一開始並沒有信心，我們會採取鎮靜劑。

So I don't know levels of confidence, but we feel pretty good about us confident that it was under helps. We don't have any growth loan growth over there whatsoever to get to that number. So no loan growth for next area that we have something, but it's well, we will have something, but that record-high level of that rely on us not dependent on loan growth.

所以我不知道信心的水平，但我們對我們的信心非常滿意，因為我們相信它得到了幫助。 我們沒有任何成長貸款成長來達到這個數字。 因此，我們有一些東西的下一個領域沒有貸款成長，但很好，我們會有一些東西，但創紀錄的高水準依賴我們而不是依賴貸款成長。

Okay. And then back, I know I think last quarter you used the word befuddled as to why loan growth wasn't coming back on. I guess number one could be the election number to be private credit. Number three, the disintermediation and Capital Markets number for companies. Could this be managed differently?

好的。 然後，我知道我認為上個季度您使用了“困惑”這個詞來解釋為什麼貸款增長沒有恢復。 我猜第一名可能是私人信貸的選號。 第三，公司的脫媒和資本市場數字。 可以用不同的方式來管理嗎？

Today are number five, you could have a week our economy or the all the above just give us your best stab at why low growth remains just so weak the economy that's still growing.

今天是第五，你可能會看到我們的經濟一周，或者以上所有內容只是讓我們最好地解釋為什麼低成長仍然如此疲軟，而經濟仍在成長。

So the goal of your reasons other than three and four. But I don't think private is cause a utilization rate on middle market companies to remain low for the businesses we play in. And I'm not sure I mean that the margin public markets being wide-open has caused some of our larger clients that pay down outstanding balances and at the Capital Markets. So that's that's that's probably true.

所以你的目標除了三個和四個原因之外。 但我不認為私有化會導致我們所從事的業務的中間市場公司的利用率保持在較低水平。並在資本市場上進行。 所以這可能是真的。

The margin by this basic notion of people just are using working capital the way they used to. And maybe that's the way they run the company post COVID. Maybe that's the uncertainty that's going to play out over time and we can all guess about it. I just I just don't know the answer sort of still befuddled.

人們這個基本概念的邊際只是像以前一樣使用營運資金。 也許這就是他們在新冠疫情之後經營公司的方式。 也許這就是隨著時間的推移會出現的不確定性，我們都可以猜測。 只是不知道答案，還是很困惑。

Okay. And then lastly, your reserves on office CRE or taken even higher, especially multi-tenant last quarter, you said the industries in the first inning. I think a lot of people disagree with that. I'm not saying yes, I'm not sure I've got two years into this at least, and it's still a big question.

好的。 最後，你在辦公室 CRE 上的儲備甚至更高，尤其是上個季度的多租戶，你在第一局說過這些行業。 我認為很多人不同意這一點。 我並不是說“是”，我不確定我至少有兩年的時間來做這件事，但這仍然是一個大問題。

Mark. I think a lot of people's mind is the first inning and clearly your reserves are higher than others. What's why do you say it's only the first thing, what's your reasoning? I think of we're just now starting to clear buildings in sales, right? We've had some extensions. We've had, you know, maturity setting, we have a we have a whole slew of term loans in the CMBS market. It was small banks that will be out there three, four, five, six years.

標記。 我想很多人的心思都是第一局，顯然你的儲備比別人高。 為什麼你說這只是第一件事，你的理由是什麼？ 我想我們剛開始清理銷售中的建築物，對吧？ 我們有一些擴展。 你知道，我們有期限設定，我們在 CMBS 市場上有大量的定期貸款。 小型銀行將存在三年、四年、五年、六年。

I just think this plays out through over a long period of time, but it office vacancies, pickier market are quite high. We're just now realizing the mark-to-market value of that as we resolve profits, Phil, that's why we're reserved where we are. That's what by I'm not worried about it per se from PNC standpoint, but that is going to be noisy for a while.

我只是認為這種情況會持續很長一段時間，但辦公室空置率和挑剔的市場相當高。 當我們解決利潤問題時，我們現在才意識到按市值計價的價值，菲爾，這就是我們維持現狀的原因。 從 PNC 的角度來看，我本身並不擔心這一點，但這會在一段時間內引起爭議。

I am I audible now we had planned for early innings of the early early innings there. But what are the important thing worse than they were not an early innings with respect to how we're reserved. I mean, you know and love or hate, but but it out to the best of our ability. We've taken all that upfront, sneaking one more last one.

我現在聽得見，我們已經計劃在那裡進行早期的早期局。 但更重要的是，就我們的保留而言，他們不是早幾局。 我的意思是，你知道，愛或恨，但我們會盡力而為。 我們已經把這些都提前做好了，還偷偷地做了最後一項。

And as far as acquisitions, I know you'd like to buy them on the cheap, the National City or go down the left. It's getting tougher for you to buy things on the complete.

至於收購，我知道你想以便宜的價格購買它們，國家城市或向左走。 對你來說，完整地購買東西變得越來越困難。

Maybe if you have a bank does have a office or CRE problem is we've been there, but am I right in thinking it's a lot less likely to do an acquisition now that some of the stocks have come back or what your thinking?

也許如果你有一家銀行確實有一個辦事處或商業地產問題我們已經遇到過，但我的想法是否正確，現在一些股票已經回歸，或者你的想法是什麼，進行收購的可能性要小得多？

Yes, you're right. We do see value in an acquisition at the moment.

是的，你說得對。 目前我們確實看到了收購的價值。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉，美國銀行。

Good morning. I guess more it is one a little early for you as a follow up on on deposit pricing. I think a fair amount of uncertainty around how much banks will be able to flex deposit costs lower. You go into September, God, remind us one around your beta expectations and any early the proof points and how customers especially commercial customers. We have received the lower rates over the last few weeks.

早安. 我想，作為存款定價的後續行動，這對你來說還為時過早。 我認為銀行能夠在多大程度上降低存款成本存在很大的不確定性。 進入九月，上帝，請提醒我們有關您的測試版期望和任何早期的證據點以及客戶尤其是商業客戶的情況。 過去幾週我們收到了較低的費率。

Sure.

當然。

And so, you know, we're early on just a couple of weeks out from the break it down, but we're now we're in a down beta cycle that we've said that we think that our terminal data will be approximately 50%, and we will reduce rates paid to the balance of this year and maybe we get a little bit less than half of the way there by the end of 24. But that's going to play out. It's early, but that's sort of our thinking.

所以，你知道，我們距離分解還有幾週的時間，但我們現在正處於一個下測週期，我們已經說過，我們認為我們的終端數據將是大約50%，我們將降低今年餘下的利率，也許到24 年底我們的利率會略低於一半。 雖然還為時過早，但這就是我們的想法。

So integrate data will be coming down, particularly in the higher interest bearing commercial deposits, some wealth deposits, and that's under way, and we'd expect that to continue, but it in on commercial clients. So how do it on loan growth in all the reasons why loan yield movement, but pickup, if you don't mind, just speaking to the health of the commercial customer base and whether you like some of the macro data on jobs could be a bit misleading make when you talk to your C&I customers or the like other balance sheet healthy, like including if the Fed were to pause lead cuts after a counter to that increase the risk for these customers and how they might approach investing hiring, et cetera.

因此，綜合數據將會下降，特別是在利息較高的商業存款和一些財富存款方面，這種情況正在進行中，我們預計這種情況會持續下去，但主要是針對商業客戶。 那麼，貸款收益率變動的所有原因如何影響貸款增長，但如果您不介意的話，只要談到商業客戶群的健康狀況以及您是否喜歡一些有關就業的宏觀數據，這可能是一個問題當你與商業和工業客戶或其他健康的資產負債表交談時，會產生一些誤導，例如包括聯準會是否會在應對這些客戶風險增加的情況後暫停削減鉛，以及他們可能如何處理投資招聘等。

Would love any color you can share? I guess I maybe it varies by industry, but a simple notion is of companies that the margin are losing margin, right?

喜歡什麼顏色可以分享嗎？ 我想我可能會因行業而異，但一個簡單的概念是公司的利潤率正在下降，對吧？

They have it and they cannot pass on price, but it was because they're not make it is up and volumes. So the discussion of how do I cut costs just as at least entered the dialogue, but we haven't seen that show up in players, right? The data remains strong as long as the data strong consumers are spending in the economy, stroke.

他們擁有它，但他們無法傳遞價格，但這是因為他們沒有彌補它的增加和數量。 因此，關於如何削減成本的討論至少進入了對話，但我們還沒有看到玩家出現這種情況，對嗎？ 只要數據強勁的消費者在經濟中支出，數據就會保持強勁。

So everybody steering and watch and is located and there's margin pressure on corporates. But you know, there's no I don't see in conversations. It also from some of the big layoffs spike in the US economy. Are there specific industries that are subs, whether it's transportation, healthcare, struggling to respect that the margin. But that's it's just at the margin that nothing new there.

因此，每個人都在操縱、觀察和定位，企業面臨利潤壓力。 但你知道，對話中沒有我看不到的東西。 這也來自於美國經濟的一些大規模裁員。 是否有特定的產業是替代產業，無論是交通運輸、醫療保健，或是在努力維持利潤率。 但這只是在邊緣，沒有什麼新東西。

Got it. And if one last one, just following up on Mike's question on M&A. Bank transaction usually stock for stock. So what I mean, your stock has done well, why would a deal given your history and technically don't deal integration? Don't like is it is completely ruled out at this point? Is that a willing seller acquiring a good franchise as it no longer makes sense for just because of pricing?

知道了。 如果是最後一個，請繼續回答麥克關於併購的問題。 銀行交易通常以股換股。 所以我的意思是，你的股票表現良好，考慮到你的歷史和技術上的交易，為什麼交易不會整合？ 不喜歡現在已經完全排除了嗎？ 是否是一個願意購買良好特許經營權的賣家，因為它不再僅僅因為定價而有意義？

Yes. I mean, the fact that we have a multiple advantage of our stock is worth the money. It trades at. I'm not sure or other stuff. You saw our stocks. So it goes straight up. Financial math saying it works, doesn't mean it's a good deal.

是的。 我的意思是，我們的股票擁有多重優勢，這一事實是值得的。 它的交易價格為。 我不確定或其他事情。 你看到了我們的庫存。 所以它直線上升。 金融數學說它有效，並不代表這是一筆好交易。

And when we looked at potential targets, that would be interesting to note from from certain geographies and so forth, just though pencil out, when you look at their balance sheet, the amount of investment we have to put in the franchise and just the time it takes to do so I would yield. And by the way, we look at everything, I just I don't think the market's anywhere close where we'd find something attractive or pay a premium on top of what you think starting at a premium price did.

當我們研究潛在目標時，從某些地區等地方注意到這一點很有趣，儘管用鉛筆寫出來，當你查看他們的資產負債表時，我們必須在特許經營權上投入的投資金額以及時間這樣做我會屈服。 順便說一句，我們會考慮一切，我只是認為市場還沒有達到我們能找到有吸引力的東西或支付溢價的程度，而你認為從溢價開始會做到這一點。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

貝特西‧格拉塞克，摩根士丹利。

Thanks so much. Okay. Just to follow-up on the last question. So it doesn't make sense M&A right now in this environment, given 12, whatever I won't go there. But just the underlying question is organic growth. How do you see organic growth progressing over the medium term? Are there are their lead to acceleration or are we what we're seeing today is a good run rate?

非常感謝。 好的。 只是為了跟進最後一個問題。 所以現在在這種環境下併購沒有任何意義，考慮到 12 個，無論如何我都不會去那裡。 但根本問題是有機成長。 您如何看待中期有機成長的進展？ 它們是否會導致加速，或者我們今天看到的是良好的運行率？

No, there's there's legs on acceleration. Certainly in C&I as we continue to build out these new markets, which are going to see us do is more aggressively invest it into our retail distribution franchise. You know, very targeted in high volume branch builds in particular markets at the moment. Go back to somebody's question of, hey, what if rates are in a quarter at the front end and what do you earn on deposits. The breakeven on a branch has picked up a lot easier to achieve.

不，加速是有腿的。 當然，在工商業領域，隨著我們繼續開拓這些新市場，我們將更積極地投資於我們的零售分銷特許經營權。 您知道，目前在特定市場的大批量分支建設中非常有針對性。 回到有人的問題，嘿，如果利率在前端的一個季度會怎麼樣，你的存款能賺多少錢。分支機構的損益平衡變得更容易實現。

My historical growth, it just looks like the way we're going to have to get there, at least in the near term that is through we had our investment in organic growth are good at it and we've been executing on it. And we'll just continue a particularly in the Southwest markets with the momentum is very strong across all our businesses, C. and ID. Retail and Private Bank.

我的歷史成長，看起來就像我們必須達到目標的方式，至少在短期內，透過我們對有機成長的投資，我們擅長它，並且我們一直在執行它。 我們將繼續特別是在西南市場，我們所有業務（C. 和 ID）的勢頭都非常強勁。零售和私人銀行。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

傑拉德·卡西迪，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

I wrote one Will, you guys have done a very good job in managing credit over the years, and this shows to have again this quarter. Can we take a look at in the C&I portfolio? What are the trends that you guys might be seeing in your this Nick portfolio? We asset back portfolio or the leverage portfolio, the trends pretty benign? Or where do you guys seeing there?

我寫了一份遺囑，多年來你們在信貸管理方面做得非常好，這表明本季又做得很好。 我們可以看看 C&I 投資組合嗎？ 你們在 Nick 的投資組合中可能會看到哪些趨勢？ 我們的資產支持投資組合或槓桿投資組合，趨勢相當良性嗎？ 或是你們在哪裡看到的？

So not much of the US at the margin. We still have a more downgrades than upgrades, you know, very simple ratio across that whole book. Much of that is driven by margin compression as opposed to anything fundamental of the underlying company. But now the economies is healthy company in our portfolios, healthy will have lumpy one-off. There's always some story that happens that we had one of those this quarter actually have.

因此，美國處於邊緣地位的地區並不多。 你知道，我們的降級仍然多於升級，整本書的比例非常簡單。 其中大部分是由利潤壓縮驅動的，而不是基礎公司的任何基本面。 但現在經濟是我們投資組合中健康的公司，健康的公司會有一次性的。 總是有一些故事發生，我們本季確實有這樣的故事。

But overall the portfolio feels feels pretty strong. I would go ahead relative to that. Yes, there there's still a very acceptable bookable credits. They're just they're just not as strong as the Ultra Strong. They were now the last algorithm that Got it.

但總體而言，該投資組合感覺相當強勁。 我會繼續相對於此。 是的，仍然有非常可接受的可預訂積分。 他們只是沒有超強者那麼強大。 他們現在是最後一個得到它的演算法。

I know you touched on this on commercial loan growth about volume, the company be stronger. Or have you seen any evidence that because of the pandemic, because of the companies went through your long-time customers that you've talked to for years, do you actually see them better manage our stronger because of what would happen during the pandemic?

我知道您談到了商業貸款成長量、公司變得更強的問題。 或者你有沒有看到任何證據表明，由於大流行，因為這些公司通過了你多年來與之交談的長期客戶，你是否真的看到他們更好地管理我們的實力，因為大流行期間會發生什麼？

I think that almost has to be true. Certainly part of the answer to the utilization question, by the way, it has to be the notion that, you know, basically working capital was free for both shareholders and also they got expensive. So you're looking at it places where you could improve margin and you're trying to cut your borrowings that be more efficient at what you're running at an inventory of that investment.

我認為這幾乎一定是真的。 順便說一句，當然，利用率問題的部分答案必須是這樣一個概念：基本上，營運資金對雙方股東來說都是免費的，而且它們也變得昂貴。 因此，您正在尋找可以提高利潤率的地方，並且您正在嘗試削減借款，以便更有效地管理該投資的庫存。

So yet of companies, companies did without a lot of stuff during the pandemic and you learn from that, you're trying to keep to site, we'll see. But you have that other broader message as the economy, spine companies are fine, labor is still feels strong. A lot of things of that geo political arises that could disrupt that. But those are exogenous variables to the basic economy we operated.

因此，對於公司來說，在大流行期間，公司確實沒有很多東西，你可以從中學到教訓，你會努力堅守崗位，我們拭目以待。 但你還有其他更廣泛的訊息，因為經濟、脊椎公司都很好，勞動力仍然強勁。 許多地緣政治問題的出現​​可能會破壞這一點。 但這些都是我們經營的基本經濟的外生變數。

Great. And then just a final follow up. You give us some good data, of course, on the commercial real estate office portfolio, what they were kind of impact? Or I guess if the cap rates start to come down, when do you start to see that be beneficial for the commercial? I mean, we could really help you to help the values of those properties. I know each property's different vacancy rates are critical, but is there any kind of point that you guys look at?

偉大的。 然後是最後的跟進。 您為我們提供了一些很好的數據，當然，對於商業房地產辦公室組合來說，它們受到了什麼樣的影響？ 或者我猜如果資本化率開始下降，你什麼時候開始看到這對商業有利？ 我的意思是，我們確實可以幫助您提高這些房產的價值。 我知道每個房產的空置率不同很重要，但是你們有什麼關注嗎？

The cap rates fell 100 basis points or 150. That would help the valuation process look lower cap rate at the margin side to help. I think what you're running into is you'll have office buildings that, you know, if there are 50% vacant and still hit the market and the question of big than they ever get to normal occupancy through historical absorption rates, that if the answer to that is no value of that building when just solid in New York is next to zero. If there's a tail on absorption or.

上限利率下降了 100 個基點或 150 個基點。 我認為你遇到的情況是，你將擁有辦公大樓，你知道，如果有50% 的空置率，但仍然進入市場，並且問題是，它們的規模比通過歷史吸收率達到正常入住率要大，如果答案是，當紐約的固體含量接近零時，建築物就沒有任何價值。 如果吸收時有尾巴。

Yes, I think I can recap what they get this thing back to my normal 90%, 95%, that it has value as a going concern and it's worth supply, the cap rate almost as a relevant those two scenarios, that thing it's never going to be occupied. It doesn't matter what the cap rates or if it's worth land.

是的，我想我可以回顧他們讓這件事回到我正常的90%、95%，它作為一個持續經營的企業有價值，它值得供應，上限利率幾乎與這兩種情況相關，那件事從來都不是即將被佔領。 資本上限是多少或土地是否值得，並不重要。

We have reached the end of our question and answer session. I would now like to hand the call back over to Bryan Gill for any closing comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束。 我現在想將電話轉回布萊恩·吉爾（Bryan Gill）以徵求結束意見。

Thank you all for participating on the call this quarter and feel free to reach out to the IR team if you haven't auctions. Thanks a lot, everybody. Thank you.

感謝大家參與本季的電話會議，如果您沒有拍賣，請隨時聯絡 IR 團隊。 非常感謝大家。 謝謝。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time and enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝。 今天的電話會議到此結束。 我們感謝您的參與。 此時您可以斷開線路並享受剩下的一天。