PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the PNC Financial Services Group Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 PNC 金融服務集團 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Bryan Gill, Executive Vice President and Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興介紹執行副總裁兼投資者關係總監布萊恩吉爾 (Bryan Gill)。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Hello. Good morning, and welcome to today's conference call for the PNC Financial Services Group. I am Bryan Gill, the Director of Investor Relations for PNC and participating on this call are PNC's Chairman and CEO, Bill Demchak; and Rob Reilly, Executive Vice President and CFO.

你好。早安，歡迎參加 PNC 金融服務集團今天的電話會議。我是 PNC 投資者關係總監 Bryan Gill，參加本次電話會議的還有 PNC 董事長兼執行長 Bill Demchak；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Rob Reilly。

Today's presentation contains forward-looking information. Cautionary statements about this information as well as reconciliations of non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release materials as well as our SEC filings and other investor materials. These are all available on our corporate website, pnc.com, under Investor Relations. These statements speak only as of January 16, 2025, and PNC undertakes no obligation to update them.

今天的演示包含前瞻性資訊。關於此資訊的警告性聲明以及非公認會計準則指標的對帳表均包含在今天的收益發布資料以及我們的美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 文件和其他投資者資料中。這些都可以在我們公司網站 pnc.com 的「投資者關係」欄位中找到。這些聲明僅截至 2025 年 1 月 16 日有效，PNC 不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bill.

現在我想把電話轉給比爾。

Thank you, Bryan, and good morning, everyone. As you've seen, we had a solid fourth quarter and a very strong year. For the full year 2024, we earned $6 billion or $13.74 per share. We executed well against our priorities and continue to gain momentum across our franchise. While loan demand remained soft throughout the year, our net interest income benefited meaningfully from fixed asset repricing, and we expect to see further tailwinds from repricing over the next couple of years. We grew fee income by 6% and we achieved record revenue.

謝謝你，布萊恩，大家早安。正如您所看到的，我們在第四季度表現穩健，全年業績表現強勁。2024 年全年，我們的獲利為 60 億美元，即每股 13.74 美元。我們很好地執行了我們的優先事項，並繼續在我們的特許經營中獲得發展勢頭。雖然全年貸款需求仍然疲軟，但我們的淨利息收入因固定資產重新定價而顯著受益，我們預計未來幾年重新定價將帶來進一步的推動作用。我們的費用收入成長了6%，實現了創紀錄的收入。

At the same time, we maintained our expense discipline, allowing us to deliver positive operating leverage, which as an aside and you will recall, that looked pretty much out of reach at the start of 2024. Finally, we grew capital and increased our tangible book value per share by 12% compared to last year while returning $3 billion of capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.

同時，我們保持了費用紀律，這使我們能夠實現積極的經營槓桿，順便說一句，你會記得，這在 2024 年初看起來幾乎是遙不可及的。最後，我們增加了資本，每股有形帳面價值與去年相比增加了 12%，同時透過股息和股票回購向股東返還了 30 億美元的資本。

And Rob is going to walk through the financial results in more detail, but I wanted to take just a moment to reflect on the strength of PNC's positioning as we head into 2025. Our businesses are performing exceptionally well, and we continue to see positive momentum, particularly in our expansion markets. C&IB had record revenue in noninterest income in 2024 as new client growth continued at an accelerated rate. Our sales in our expansion markets grew 26% with over 60% of those sales being noncredit.

羅布將更詳細地介紹財務結果，但我想花一點時間來反思 PNC 在邁向 2025 年時的定位實力。我們的業務表現非常出色，我們繼續看到積極的勢頭，特別是在我們的擴張市場。由於新客戶成長持續加速，C&IB 在 2024 年的非利息收入創下了歷史新高。我們在擴張市場的銷售額成長了 26%，其中 60% 以上的銷售額來自非投資者。

In retail banking, consumer DDA growth in 2024 was the highest it's been in eight years, and we produced record brokerage revenue at PNC investments and the Asset Management Group delivered its strongest level of positive net flows in years. Going forward, we're investing in new products and an expanded footprint to further accelerate our momentum. We will soon be rolling out our new online banking platform. We are doubling our new branch builds to gain scale in some of the fastest-growing regions in the country. And on the corporate side, we recently announced our entry into the Salt Lake City market.

在零售銀行業務方面，2024 年消費者 DDA 成長率是八年來的最高水平，我們在 PNC 投資中創造了創紀錄的經紀收入，資產管理集團實現了多年來最強勁的正淨流量水平。展望未來，我們將投資新產品並擴大業務範圍，以進一步加速我們的發展勢頭。我們很快就會推出我們的新網路銀行平台。我們正在加倍增設新分支機構，以在國內一些成長最快的地區擴大規模。在公司方面，我們最近宣布進入鹽湖城市場。

As Rob will highlight, our forward guidance solidly points to record NII in 2025 as well as strong fee income growth across our franchise. This, combined with our ongoing expense discipline, positions us to deliver meaningful positive operating leverage this year. While there are a lot of uncertainties regarding the outlook for the economy, interest rates, the regulatory environment, we believe that PNC's balance sheet is well positioned. We are adequately reserved for our credit risk, and our strong capital levels provide substantial flexibility as we enter 2025.

正如 Rob 所強調的，我們的前瞻性指引堅定地指向 2025 年創紀錄的 NII 以及整個特許經營權的強勁費用收入增長。結合我們持續的費用控制，這一優勢使我們能夠在今年實現有意義的正向經營槓桿。儘管經濟、利率和監管環境前景存在許多不確定性，但我們認為 PNC 的資產負債表狀況良好。我們對信用風險進行了充分的準備，強大的資本水準為我們在進入 2025 年時提供了相當大的靈活性。

Before wrapping up, I'd like to spend just a moment to express our sympathies to those who have been impacted by the wildfires. PNC is, of course, committed to supporting our customers, our communities, and importantly, the more than 200 employees we have in the affected areas. I also want to thank our employees for everything they do for our company and our customers. We accomplished a significant amount in 2024, and we're entering 2025 with a lot of momentum. I've never been more excited about the opportunities in front of us to continue to grow our franchise and to deliver for our stakeholders.

在結束之前，我想花一點時間向那些受到野火影響的人們表示同情。當然，PNC 致力於支持我們的客戶、我們的社區，更重要的是，支持我們在受災地區的 200 多名員工。我還要感謝我們的員工為公司和客戶所做的一切。我們在 2024 年取得了重大成就，並且正以強勁勢頭邁向 2025 年。我從未像現在這樣對我們面前的機會感到興奮，我們可以繼續發展我們的特許經營業務，並為我們的利害關係人提供服務。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Rob to take you through the numbers. Rob?

接下來，我會把時間交給 Rob，由他來向大家介紹這些數字。搶？

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Our balance sheet is on slide 4 and is presented on an average basis. For the linked quarter, loans of $319 billion were stable, investment securities increased by $2 billion, and our cash balances at the Federal Reserve were $38 billion, a decrease of $7 billion or 16%. Deposit balances grew $3 billion and averaged $425 billion. Borrowed funds decreased $9 billion or 12%, primarily due to the maturity of FHLB advances.

謝謝，比爾，大家早安。我們的資產負債表在投影片 4 上，以平均值呈現。第三季度，貸款3,190億美元，維持穩定；投資證券增加了20億美元；我們在聯準會的現金餘額為380億美元，減少了70億美元，降幅為16%。存款餘額增加了 30 億美元，平均達到 4,250 億美元。借入資金減少 90 億美元，降幅 12%，主要因為 FHLB 預付款到期。

At quarter end, AOCI was negative $6.6 billion compared to negative $5.1 billion as of September 30, reflecting the impact of higher rates. Our tangible book value was $95.33 per common share, which was a slight decline linked quarter due to the decrease in AOCI but a 12% increase compared to the same period a year ago. We remain well capitalized with an estimated CET1 ratio of 10.5% as of December 31. And we estimate our revised standardized ratio, which includes AOCI, to be 9.2% at quarter end. We continue to be well positioned with capital flexibility. We returned approximately $900 million of capital to shareholders during the quarter through both common dividends and share repurchases.

截至季末，AOCI 為負 66 億美元，而截至 9 月 30 日為負 51 億美元，反映了利率上升的影響。我們的有形帳面價值為每股普通股 95.33 美元，由於 AOCI 的下降，環比略有下降，但與去年同期相比增長了 12%。我們的資本仍然充足，截至 12 月 31 日，預計 CET1 比率為 10.5%。我們估計，包括 AOCI 在內的修訂後的標準化比率在季度末將達到 9.2%。我們繼續保持良好的資本彈性。本季度，我們透過普通股股利和股票回購向股東返還了約 9 億美元的資本。

Slide 5 shows our loans in more detail. Average loan balances of $319 billion were stable compared to the third quarter. And the yield on total loans decreased 26 basis points to 5.87% in the fourth quarter, primarily driven by lower short-term rates. Consumer loans averaged $100 billion and were essentially flat linked quarter as growth in auto was offset by a decline in residential real estate. Commercial loans of $219 billion were stable as growth in C&IB and leasing balances was offset by a $1 billion decline in commercial real estate loans. On a period-end basis, commercial loans declined roughly $5 billion, reflecting both lower CRE balances and utilization rates.

幻燈片 5 更詳細地展示了我們的貸款。平均貸款餘額為 3,190 億美元，與第三季相比保持穩定。第四季總貸款收益率下降 26 個基點至 5.87%，主要原因是短期利率下降。消費貸款平均為 1000 億美元，與上個季度基本持平，因為汽車行業的成長被住宅房地產行業的下滑所抵消。2,190 億美元的商業貸款保持穩定，因為商業及投資銀行和租賃餘額的增長被商業房地產貸款 10 億美元的減少所抵消。從期末來看，商業貸款減少了約 50 億美元，反映出 CRE 餘額和利用率的下降。

Slide 6 details our investment security and swap portfolios. Overall, we continue to be relatively neutral to changes in interest rates in 2025, and we continue to manage our fixed and floating rate assets to reduce interest rate sensitivity in future years. Average investment securities of $144 billion increased $2 billion as purchases more than offset runoff in maturities. During the quarter, we continued to add floating rate securities and our total portfolio is now 20% floating compared to 6% a year ago. The majority of our floating rate securities are designated as available for sale and as a result, comprise approximately 40% of our AFS portfolio.

投影片 6 詳細介紹了我們的投資證券和掉期投資組合。總體而言，我們對2025年的利率變化繼續保持相對中性，並繼續管理固定和浮動利率資產，以降低未來幾年的利率敏感度。平均投資證券為 1,440 億美元，增加了 20 億美元，因為購買量超過了到期流失。在本季度，我們繼續增加浮動利率證券，目前我們的總投資組合浮動利率為 20%，而一年前為 6%。我們的浮動利率證券大多被指定為可供出售，因此占我們 AFS 投資組合的約 40%。

Also, floating rate securities are a higher-yielding alternative to excess cash at the Federal Reserve. The yield on our securities portfolio increased 9 basis points to 3.17%, driven by higher rates on new purchases and the runoff of lower-yielding securities. And as of December 31, the duration of our securities portfolio was approximately 3.4 years. Our received fixed rate swaps pointed to the commercial loan book totaled $50 billion on December 31 comprised of $37 billion of active swaps and $13 billion of forward starting swaps. The weighted average received rate on the active swaps increased 14 basis points linked quarter to 3.22%.

此外，浮動利率證券是聯準會過剩現金的更高收益的替代品。受新購買利率上升和低收益證券流失的推動，我們的證券投資組合收益率上升了 9 個基點，達到 3.17%。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的證券投資組合的久期約為 3.4 年。我們收到的固定利率掉期表明，12 月 31 日的商業貸款帳簿總額為 500 億美元，其中包括 370 億美元的活躍掉期和 130 億美元的遠期掉期。活躍掉期加權平均利率較上月上升 14 個基點至 3.22%。

Looking forward, we expect considerable runoff in our short-term duration securities and swap portfolios, which will allow us to continue to reinvest into higher-yielding assets. Accordingly, AOCI will accrete back with maturities, resulting in continued growth to tangible book value. A full update on the expected maturities and AOCI burn-down is provided in the appendix.

展望未來，我們預期短期證券和掉期投資組合將出現大幅縮水，這將使我們能夠繼續向收益更高的資產進行再投資。因此，AOCI 將隨著到期而重新累積，從而導致有形帳面價值持續成長。附錄中提供了預期到期日和 AOCI 燃盡的完整更新。

Slide 7 covers our deposit balances in more detail. Average deposits increased $3 billion or 1%, reflecting continued growth in interest-bearing commercial balances, partially offset by lower consumer brokered CD balances. Regarding mix, noninterest-bearing deposits were stable at $96 billion and remained at 23% of total average deposits. Our rate paid on interest-bearing deposits declined 29 basis points during the fourth quarter to 2.43%, reflecting pricing actions commensurate with the Fed rate cuts. Our cumulative deposit beta through December was 47%, and going forward, we expect our beta to be in the high 40% range during the anticipated rate-cutting cycle.

投影片 7 更詳細地介紹了我們的存款餘額。平均存款增加了 30 億美元，即 1%，反映出有利息的商業餘額持續增長，但被消費者經紀 CD 餘額的下降部分抵消。就結構而言，無利息存款穩定在 960 億美元，佔平均存款總額的 23%。我們支付的計息存款利率在第四季度下降了 29 個基點，至 2.43%，反映了與聯準會降息相稱的定價舉措。截至 12 月，我們的累計存款貝塔值為 47%，展望未來，我們預計在預期的降息週期內，我們的貝塔值將處於 40% 的高點。

Turning to slide 8, we highlight our income statement trends and a few notable items this quarter. Fourth quarter net income was $1.6 billion or $3.77 per share. Comparing the fourth quarter to the third quarter, total revenue of $5.6 billion increased $135 million or 2%. Net interest income grew by $113 million or 3%, and our net interest margin was 2.75%, an increase of 11 basis points. Noninterest income of $2 billion increased 1%. Noninterest expense of $3.5 billion increased $179 million or 5%. The increase included noncore items netting to $79 million pretax or $62 million after tax, which I'll provide more detail on in a few moments.

轉到第 8 頁，我們重點介紹了本季的損益表趨勢和一些值得注意的項目。第四季淨收入為 16 億美元，即每股 3.77 美元。與第三季相比，第四季總營收 56 億美元增加了 1.35 億美元，增幅為 2%。淨利息收入成長 1.13 億美元，增幅 3%，淨利差為 2.75%，增加了 11 個基點。非利息收入 20 億美元，成長 1%。35 億美元的非利息支出增加了 1.79 億美元，即 5%。這一增長包括非核心項目的淨收入，稅前淨收入為 7,900 萬美元，稅後淨收入為 6,200 萬美元，稍後我將提供更多詳細資訊。

Provision was $156 million, reflecting improved macroeconomic factors and portfolio activity. And our effective tax rate was 14.6%, which included $60 million of income tax benefits related to the resolution of certain tax matters.

撥備金額為 1.56 億美元，反映出宏觀經濟因素和投資組合活動的改善。我們的有效稅率為 14.6%，其中包括與解決某些稅務問題相關的 6,000 萬美元的所得稅優惠。

Turning to slide 9, we highlight our revenue trends. On a full year basis, we generated record revenue of $21.6 billion as lower net interest income was more than offset by 6% growth in noninterest income. Looking at the linked quarter comparison, revenue increased $135 million, driven by higher net interest income. Net interest income of $3.5 billion increased $113 million or 3%, driven by lower funding costs and the continued benefit of fixed rate asset repricing. Fee income was $1.9 billion and decreased $84 million or 4% linked quarter.

第 9 頁，我們重點介紹了我們的收入趨勢。從全年來看，我們創造了 216 億美元的創紀錄收入，因為淨利息收入的下降被非利息收入 6% 的成長所抵消。與上一季相比，受淨利息收入增加的推動，收入增加了 1.35 億美元。淨利息收入為 35 億美元，增加了 1.13 億美元，增幅為 3%，這得益於融資成本降低和固定利率資產重新定價的持續效益。費用收入為 19 億美元，季減 8,400 萬美元，即 4%。

Looking at the detail, asset management and brokerage income declined $9 million or 2%, reflecting lower annuity sales, partially offset by the benefit of higher average equity markets. Capital markets and advisory fees decreased $23 million or 6%, reflecting elevated third quarter activity. Card and cash management fees were stable as higher treasury management revenue was offset by credit card origination incentives. Lending and deposit services revenue grew $10 million or 3% due to increased customer activity. Mortgage revenue declined $59 million linked quarter, primarily due to elevated RMSR hedge gains in the third quarter. And our other noninterest income increased $106 million, reflecting a less negative impact from Visa derivative activity.

具體來看，資產管理和經紀收入下降 900 萬美元，即 2%，反映出年金銷售額下降，但平均股票市場走高帶來的好處部分抵消了這一影響。資本市場和諮詢費用減少了 2,300 萬美元，即 6%，反映出第三季活動的增加。由於更高的資金管理收入被信用卡發放激勵措施所抵消，因此卡片和現金管理費用保持穩定。由於客戶活動增加，貸款和存款服務收入增加了 1000 萬美元，即 3%。抵押貸款收入環比下降 5,900 萬美元，主要原因是第三季 RMSR 對沖收益增加。我們的其他非利息收入增加了 1.06 億美元，反映出 Visa 衍生活動帶來的負面影響較小。

Turning to slide 10. Full year noninterest expense decreased by $488 million or 3%. Core noninterest expense was down $152 million or 1% compared to 2023. As a result, we generated positive operating leverage on a reported basis as well as adjusted for noncore expenses. Fourth quarter noninterest expense of $3.5 billion increased $179 million or 5%. As I mentioned, the quarter included $79 million of noncore expenses, which reflected $97 million of asset impairments, partially offset by an $18 million reduction to the FDIC special assessment. The asset impairments included a number of items and were primarily related to various technology investments.

翻到第 10 張投影片。全年非利息支出減少 4.88 億美元，降幅 3%。與 2023 年相比，核心非利息支出下降 1.52 億美元，即 1%。因此，我們在報告基礎上產生了正的營運槓桿，並調整了非核心費用。第四季非利息支出為 35 億美元，增加了 1.79 億美元，增幅為 5%。正如我所提到的，本季的非核心支出為 7,900 萬美元，其中反映了 9,700 萬美元的資產減值，部分被 FDIC 特別評估的 1,800 萬美元減少所抵消。資產減值包括多項項目，主要與各種技術投資有關。

Core noninterest expense increased $100 million or 3% linked quarter, largely due to seasonality and higher marketing spend. As you know, we had a 2024 goal of $450 million in cost savings through our continuous improvement program, which we exceeded. Looking forward to 2025, our annual CIP target is $350 million. And this program will continue to fund a significant portion of our ongoing business and technology investments.

核心非利息支出較上季增加 1 億美元或 3%，主要原因是季節性因素和行銷支出增加。如您所知，我們設定的 2024 年目標是透過持續改善計畫節省 4.5 億美元的成本，而我們超額完成了這一目標。展望 2025 年，我們的年度 CIP 目標是 3.5 億美元。該計劃將繼續為我們正在進行的業務和技術投資提供很大一部分資金。

Our credit metrics are presented on slide 11. Nonperforming loans decreased $252 million or 10% linked quarter, driven by lower C&I and CRE NPLs. Total delinquencies of $1.4 billion were up $107 million or 8% compared with September 30. The increase was primarily driven by commercial loan delinquencies, the majority of which have already been or are in the process of being resolved. Net loan charge-offs were $250 million. The $36 million linked quarter decrease was driven by lower office CRE charge-offs and higher commercial recoveries. And our annualized net charge-offs to average loans ratio was 31 basis points. Our allowance for credit losses totaled $5.2 billion or 1.64% of total loans on December 31, down 1 basis point from September 30.

我們的信用指標在第 11 頁上展示。不良貸款減少 2.52 億美元，季減 10%，主要因商業和工業貸款及企業房地產不良貸款減少。總拖欠金額為 14 億美元，與 9 月 30 日相比增加了 1.07 億美元，增幅為 8%。成長的主要原因是商業貸款拖欠，其中大部分已經或正在解決中。淨貸款沖銷額為 2.5 億美元。本季 3,600 萬美元的降幅是由於辦公大樓 CRE 沖銷額下降和商業回收額增加所致。我們的年化淨核銷額與平均貸款比率為 31 個基點。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的信用損失準備金總額為 52 億美元，佔貸款總額的 1.64%，較 9 月 30 日下降 1 個基點。

Slide 12 provides more detail on our CRE office portfolio. Our office CRE balances declined 7% or approximately $500 million linked quarter as we continue to manage our exposure down. Criticized loans and nonperforming balances also declined as paydowns and charge-offs outpaced new inflows during the quarter. Net loan charge-offs within the CRE office portfolio were $62 million, down from $95 million in the third quarter. Despite this decline, we continue to see stress in the office portfolio, given the challenges inherent in this book and the lack of demand for office properties. As a result, we expect additional charge-offs, the size of which will vary quarter-to-quarter, given the nature of the loans.

投影片 12 提供了有關我們的 CRE 辦公室組合的更多詳細資訊。由於我們繼續降低風險敞口，我們的辦公室 CRE 餘額與上季相比下降了 7％，約 5 億美元。由於本季的還款和沖銷金額超過了新流入資金，受到批評的貸款和不良餘額也有所下降。CRE 辦公大樓組合內的淨貸款沖銷額為 6,200 萬美元，低於第三季的 9,500 萬美元。儘管出現下滑，但考慮到辦公室市場固有的挑戰以及辦公大樓需求的缺乏，我們仍然看到辦公室投資組合面臨壓力。因此，考慮到貸款的性質，我們預計會有額外的沖銷，其規模將因季度而異。

Our reserves on the office portfolio increased to 13% as of December 31, up from 11% the prior quarter. The increases in reserves reflects the continued valuation adjustments across the portfolio. Accordingly, we believe we are adequately reserved. In summary, PNC reported a solid fourth quarter, which contributed to an overall successful 2024 and we're well positioned for 2025. Regarding our view of the overall economy, we're expecting continued economic growth over the course of 2025, resulting in approximately 2% real GDP growth and unemployment to remain slightly above 4% through year-end.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們的辦公室投資組合儲備金從上一季的 11% 增加至 13%。儲備金的增加反映了整個投資組合的持續估值調整。因此，我們認為我們已經足夠保留了。總而言之，PNC 報告了穩健的第四季度業績，這有助於 2024 年的整體成功，並且我們為 2025 年做好了準備。關於整體經濟的看法，我們預計 2025 年經濟將繼續成長，實際 GDP 成長率約為 2%，失業率到年底將保持在略高於 4% 的水平。

We expect the Fed to cut rates two times in 2025 with a 25 basis point decrease in March and another in June. Looking ahead, our outlook for full year 2025 compared to 2024 results is as follows. In regard to loan growth, while a lot of indications point to accelerated growth, we've not built that into our guidance. As a result, our guidance reflects spot loan growth of 2% to 3%, which equates to stable average full year loans. We expect total revenue to be up approximately 6%. Inside of that, our expectation is for net interest income to be up 6% to 7% and noninterest income to be up approximately 5%. Noninterest expense to be up approximately 1%, and we expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 19%. Based on this guidance, we expect we will generate substantial positive operating leverage in 2025.

我們預計聯準會將在 2025 年降息兩次，3 月和 6 月分別降息 25 個基點。展望未來，我們對 2025 年全年業績與 2024 年業績的展望如下。關於貸款成長，雖然許多跡象顯示成長加速，但我們尚未將其納入我們的指引。因此，我們的指引反映現貨貸款成長率為 2% 至 3%，相當於穩定的平均全年貸款。我們預計總收入將成長約 6%。其中，我們預期淨利息收入將成長 6% 至 7%，非利息收入將成長約 5%。非利息支出將上漲約 1%，我們預計有效稅率約為 19%。根據此指引，我們預期 2025 年將產生可觀的正經營槓桿。

Our outlook for the first quarter of 2025 compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 is as follows: we expect average loans to be down approximately 1%; net interest income to be down 2% to 3%, which includes the impact of two fewer days in the quarter; fee income to be stable; other noninterest income to be in the range of $150 million to $200 million, excluding Visa activity. Taking the component pieces of revenue together, we expect total revenue to be down 1% to 2%. We expect total noninterest expense to be down 2% to 3%, and we expect first quarter net charge-offs to be approximately $300 million.

我們對 2025 年第一季與 2024 年第四季的預測如下：我們預計平均貸款將下降約 1%；淨利息收入下降 2% 至 3%，其中包括本季營業日減少兩天的影響；費用收入維持穩定；不包括 Visa 活動，其他非利息收入將在 1.5 億至 2 億美元之間。綜合考慮各部分收入，我們預期總收入將下降 1% 至 2%。我們預計總非利息支出將下降 2% 至 3%，並預計第一季淨沖銷額約為 3 億美元。

And with that, Bill and I are ready to take your questions.

現在，比爾和我準備回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions) John McDonald, Truist Securities.

（操作員指示）約翰·麥克唐納（John McDonald），Truist Securities。

I wanted to start off with a take on industry deposit growth and trends in '25. What are you guys seeing for the industry this year? And then maybe some comments on PNC's ability to gain some share in retail deposits, particularly as you start densifying some of the expansion markets.

我想先了解 25 年產業存款的成長和趨勢。您對今年的產業有何看法？然後也許會對 PNC 在零售存款領域獲得份額的能力發表一些評論，特別是當你開始密集擴張一些市場時。

John, it's Rob. Yes, so on deposits, in terms of our outlook for '25, we do see growing deposits slightly 1% to 2% over the course of the year. We do expect some seasonality, though, on commercial deposits where they'll go down a little bit in the first quarter and then grow from there. As far as our organic efforts in the expansion markets, things are going really well, and things continue along those lines. I'm sorry, Bill, the DDA growth that Bill talked about at the beginning bodes well for us.

約翰，我是羅布。是的，就存款而言，就我們對 25 年的展望而言，我們確實看到今年存款將小幅增加 1% 至 2%。不過，我們確實預期商業存款會受到一些季節性的影響，第一季商業存款會略有下降，然後逐漸增加。就我們在擴張市場的有機努力而言，事情進展得非常順利，事情將繼續沿著這樣的路線發展。對不起，比爾，比爾一開始提到的 DDA 成長對我們來說是個好兆頭。

Okay. And then in terms of the NII guidance, maybe just some thoughts on the cadence and the drivers? Obviously down in the first quarter. And then how do the drivers align to pick up sequentially and kind of get to that 6%, 7% for the year?

好的。然後就 NII 指導而言，也許只是對節奏和驅動因素的一些想法？第一季明顯下滑。那麼，各個驅動因素如何協調，才能依序上升，達到全年 6%、7% 的增幅呢？

Yes, so a couple of things on that, and I'll just repeat what I said in the opening comments. Our guide for the full year and for the first quarter is very conservative in terms of loan growth. Average loans for the full year stable, spot up 2% to 3%. So we want to emphasize that in terms of how we calculate our full year NII and for the first quarter.

是的，關於這一點有幾點想說，我只想重複我在開場白中說過的話。我們對全年和第一季的貸款成長預期非常保守。全年平均貸款維持穩定，現貨上漲2%至3%。因此，我們想強調如何計算全年 NII 和第一季 NII。

Inside of that, obviously, it's a continuation of the fixed rate asset repricing that we talked about a lot and the continued dynamics around the floating rates and the deposits. In the first quarter, we do call for NII to be down 2% to 3%. 75% of that decline is fewer days. And then the balance is just some lower seasonal commercial deposits that I talked about, both interest-bearing and non-interest-bearing, which is typical. And then again, I emphasize no loan growth in our first quarter NII guidance.

在這其中，顯然這是我們經常談論的固定利率資產重新定價的延續，以及浮動利率和存款的持續動態。在第一季度，我們確實預計NII將下降2%至3%。其中 75% 的下降是由於天數減少。然後餘額就是我談到的一些較低的季節性商業存款，包括有利息的和無利息的，這是很典型的。我再次強調，我們第一季的 NII 指引中沒有貸款成長。

Okay. And does the fixed asset reprice kind of pick up as you go through the year or is there any kind of weighting to that throughout the year?

好的。並且，隨著時間的推移，固定資產重新定價是否會上升，或者在全年中是否存在某種加權？

It's pretty balanced. It continues on the path that we're on, so it will continue through '25 and beyond, for that matter.

它非常平衡。它將繼續沿著我們所走的道路前進，因此，它將持續到25年及以後。

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

史考特·西佛斯、派珀·桑德勒。

Let's see. Rob, so you've emphasized a couple of times not a lot of loan growth baked into the guide, which I appreciate. Just curious now that the dust has kind of settled on the election, maybe just updated thoughts on how you might see demand developing. It's pretty clear that's not going to be a requisite to hit your numbers. But just what are your clients thinking saying, could we evolve something into the second half of the year? How are you thinking about kind of the major touch points you'll be looking for?

讓我們來看看。羅布，你已經強調過幾次了，指南中並沒有包含太多的貸款成長，我很感激這一點。只是好奇，現在選舉已經塵埃落定，也許只是您對需求發展方式的最新看法。很明顯，這不是達到目標的必要條件。但是你的客戶到底在想什麼，我們能否在下半年取得一些進展？您如何考慮要尋找哪些主要接觸點？

We've gotten this question for four quarters. A lot of indications that would suggest that utilization ought to increase. And I ought to say we're growing clients. We're growing DAT. We're just -- utilization decreases, it's causing balances to fall. Under the presumption that the new administration acts pretty clearly as it relates to what they're going to do with tariffs and other things kind of right out of the gate so people know where they stand, presumably, you'll start seeing investment in utilization increase. But we've just -- as we've said before, we've kind of gotten tired of trying to pick that point in time where things go up and just be conservative about it.

我們已經被問到這個問題四個季度了。許多跡象表明利用率應該會增加。我應該說我們的客戶正在增加。我們正在發展 DAT。我們只是——利用率下降，導致餘額下降。假設新政府在關稅和其他議題上採取非常明確的行動，讓人們知道他們的立場，那麼你大概就會開始看到利用率的投資增加。但是，正如我們之前所說的，我們已經有點厭倦試圖選擇事態上升的時間點並對此保持保守態度。

Got you, perfect. All right. And then Rob, in the past, you've talked about the company being able to generate sort of a 3% normalized margin. I guess I'm curious, I mean, so much of the ramp in NII seems kind of programmatic through the year. Is that 3%, is it too ambitious to think that's something that you might be able to hit this year? Or would we have to -- it's just going to take a little bit longer than that to develop?

明白了，完美。好的。然後羅布，過去你曾經談到公司能夠產生 3% 左右的標準化利潤率。我想我很好奇，我的意思是，NII 的大部分成長似乎都是全年計劃性的。這是 3% 嗎？或者我們必須——只是需要花更長一點的時間來開發？

Yes, so we've talked about that. We don't provide NIM guidance because it's an outcome. We do expect NIM to continue to increase through the course of 2025. We've approached that 3% level in the past, and I think it's logical to assume that we'd get close to that.

是的，我們已經討論過這個問題了。我們不提供 NIM 指導，因為它是一種結果。我們確實預計 NIM 將在 2025 年繼續增加。我們過去曾接近 3% 的水平，我認為我們可以接近這個水平，這是合乎邏輯的。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

瑞銀的埃里卡·納賈里安（Erika Najarian）。

Rob, just to clarify, just as you can imagine, this is a big conversation that was happening with your investors this morning. In terms of your response to Scott's question, based on the mechanics, you can approach that 3% as an exit rate for the year? Again, like I know you don't give a NIM guide but it seems like from a mechanical standpoint, that's what -- I just wanted to confirm that's what you're telling us. And in terms of the two cuts that you have embedded in your guide, I think a few folks have maybe one cut. Does that really matter if you have one cut or two in terms of your outlook for net interest income?

羅布，我只是想澄清一下，正如你所想像的，這是今天早上你與投資者進行的重要對話。就您對 Scott 問題的回答而言，根據機制，您可以將 3% 作為今年的退出率嗎？再說一次，我知道您沒有提供 NIM 指南，但從機械的角度來看，這就是——我只是想確認這就是您告訴我們的。就您在指南中嵌入的兩個剪輯而言，我認為有些人可能只剪輯了一個地方。就您的淨利息收入前景而言，一次或兩次的削減真的很重要嗎？

So the second question first. No, it doesn't. We're very neutral to rates, we've said that. So '25 is sort of locked in from a rate perspective. And then on your first question, yes, confirmed, approaching 3% by the end of '25.

首先是第二個問題。不，不是這樣的。我們對利率持非常中立的態度，我們已經這麼說了。因此從利率角度來看，25年已經確定了。然後關於您的第一個問題，是的，確認到 25 年底將接近 3%。

Great. And my follow-up question here is how, Bill, maybe you think about the demand construct for lines of credit in the rate environment that the forward curve is pricing in. So with a higher neutral rate than we expected and maybe some flatness, we don't have that now but maybe some flatness from SOFR to the belly, how do you expect that in terms of impacting whether or not companies seek out to finance their projects through lines of credit versus going to the capital markets? And how much of that dynamic is embedded into your more conservative guide?

偉大的。我的後續問題是，比爾，您如何看待在遠期曲線反映的利率環境下對信貸額度的需求建構。因此，由於中性利率高於我們的預期，並且可能有些持平，我們現在沒有這種情況，但從 SOFR 到腹部可能有些持平，您預計這會如何影響公司是否尋求透過信用額度而不是進入資本市場來為其專案融資？那麼，這種動態在多大程度上體現在了您較為保守的指南中呢？

The conservative guide is simply because we don't have visibility on what would otherwise cause the change yet. The nuance of whether somebody goes to a capital market or a line of credit is a function of price. I mean, we -- a line of credit could be swapped into fixed, the capital markets can issue fixed. So I don't know that, that's a particular driver. Higher rates generally would have and have had, I imagine, an impact on the total amount of line somebody carries just because carrying inventory and working capital is more expensive. And I'm sure that's at least part of the impact as to why utilizations are lower today than they were pre COVID.

保守的指導只是因為我們還不清楚什麼因素會導致這種改變。人們是否進入資本市場或信貸額度的細微差別取決於價格。我的意思是，我們可以將信用額度換成固定額度，資本市場可以發行固定額度。所以我不知道，那是一個特定的驅動程式。我認為更高的利率通常會對某人持有的總信用額度產生影響，因為持有庫存和營運資金的成本更高。我確信這至少是導致目前利用率低於新冠疫情之前的部分原因。

John Pancari, Evercore ISI.

約翰潘卡里 (John Pancari)，Evercore ISI。

Just on the fee income side, I want to see if you can unpack the 5% growth outlook a bit for 2025, maybe just look at the most noteworthy drivers. I know you've talked about the capital markets opportunity quite a bit in the past as well as treasury and cash management and other areas. So if you could just help us and think about what are the largest drivers of that 5% outlook.

僅就費用收入方面而言，我想看看您是否可以稍微解析一下 2025 年 5% 的成長前景，也許只看看最值得注意的驅動因素。我知道您過去曾多次談論資本市場機會以及財務和現金管理等領域。所以如果您能幫助我們思考這 5% 前景的最大驅動因素是什麼的話。

Yes. Sure, John. Just in the order of how we report our fees by categories for 2025, asset management, we would expect to be up mid-single digits, capital markets and advisories up mid- to high single digits, card and treasury management up mid- to high single digits, lending and deposit services up maybe low single digits. And then lastly, mortgage, we expect to be off approximately 10% or even more. That's a small component but that's our best thinking at the moment.

是的。當然，約翰。按照我們按類別報告 2025 年費用的順序，我們預計資產管理費用將增長中等個位數，資本市場和諮詢費用將增長中等到高個位數，卡和資金管理費用將增長中等到高個位數，貸款和存款服務費用可能增長低個位數。最後，我們預計抵押貸款將下降約 10% 甚至更多。這只是一小部分，但這是我們目前最好的想法。

Got it, Rob. That's helpful. And then separately on capital on the buyback front, I mean, you're at the 10.5% CET1 level. You've bought back $200 million in the fourth quarter. How should we think about a reasonable pace as you look at 2025? And if the $200 million level appears reasonable, could that level be sustained if you do see that pickup in loan growth from your conservative -- off of your conservative expectation?

明白了，羅布。這很有幫助。然後分別就回購方面的資本而言，我的意思是，您的 CET1 水準為 10.5%。你們在第四季回購了 2 億美元。展望2025年，我們該如何思考合理的步伐？如果 2 億美元的水平看起來合理，如果您看到貸款成長從保守的預期中回升，那麼這個水平能否維持？

Yes. I think yes, the answer to that second part is yes, we can sustain that. And the current plan is to continue at the levels that we've been doing. You saw $200 million in the fourth quarter, so between $100 million and $200 million is where we've been averaging, and that's what I would expect going forward.

是的。我認為是的，第二部分的答案是肯定的，我們可以維持這一點。目前的計劃是繼續我們一直以來的行動。您在第四季看到了 2 億美元的收入，所以我們的平均收入在 1 億至 2 億美元之間，這也是我對未來的預期。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥克·梅奧。

Bill, I guess I've been asking this question for the last three or four calls so I break the streak. Loan growth, so you're giving your NII guide assuming not much loan growth, just average, 0. And I know you're getting out of the forecasting business and so you just say it's basically 0 and here's your NII guide. And you're guiding for 400 basis points of operating leverage and that's, that. Having said that, with all the caveats and the answers you gave before, what do you think is really happening? Is all the loan growth just going to debt capital markets or are the corporations just sluggish or what's going on?

比爾，我想我在過去的三、四通電話中一直在問這個問題，所以我打破了這個習慣。貸款成長，因此您給出的 NII 指南假設貸款成長不多，只是平均值 0。我知道您已經退出預測業務了，所以您只是說它基本上是 0，這是您的 NII 指南。您指導的經營槓桿為 400 個基點，就是這樣。話雖如此，根據您之前給出的所有警告和答案，您認為實際情況是什麼？所有貸款成長是否都流向了債務資本市場，還是企業只是成長緩慢，或是到底發生了什麼事？

It's not going to capital markets. I mean, there's a part of our book in the large corporate space where utilization has probably dropped more than most because of their ability to hit capital markets. But it's across all the subsegments from smaller commercial to middle market through to even our specialty businesses and asset-based finance, for whatever reason, Mike, utilization is lower.

它不會進入資本市場。我的意思是，我們帳簿上有一部分是大型企業，由於它們衝擊資本市場的能力，它們的利用率可能比大多數企業下降得更多。但無論出於什麼原因，從小型商業到中型市場，甚至我們的專業業務和資產融資，所有細分市場的利用率都較低。

And part of that's got to just be total cost. Part of it's got to be, we've been running into a lot of uncertainty, right? We've been calling for this landing for the better part of two years and people would like to have landed and got on with it, I think, before they invest a lot of capital. I think three quarters ago, if not four, we kind of said we're going to quit forecasting this. We don't need it. We showed you numbers to beat those numbers. And loan growth kind of ended up where we thought three or four quarters ago, which was not great. I don't know that it's going to be not great in '25. I just don't know what it's going to be. So you plug in any number that you want.

其中一部分就是總成本。部分原因是我們遇到了很多不確定性，對嗎？我們呼籲這次登陸已經將近兩年了，我認為，人們希望在投入大量資金之前能夠登陸並繼續登陸。我想，三個季度前，如果不是四個季度前，我們就說過我們將不再對此進行預測。我們不需要它。我們向你展示了一些可以打敗這些數字的數字。貸款成長與我們三、四個季度前預想的差不多，這並不是很好。我不知道 25 年的情況會不會很糟。我只是不知道它將會是什麼。因此您可以插入您想要的任何數字。

Or importantly, when it's going to be.

或者重要的是，什麼時候會發生。

Yes. I mean, the important thing to remember, Mike, is that we're not going to behave differently than any other bank. We're not changing what we're doing. We're not getting out, we're not getting in. We're not -- we have a giant stock of revolving credit that will move with the market. And I just don't want to promise you a number that has a big unknown to it.

是的。我的意思是，麥克，要記住的重要一點是，我們的行為不會與其他銀行有任何不同。我們不會改變我們正在做的事情。我們出不去，進不去。我們不是—我們擁有大量的循環信貸庫存，它們會隨著市場而變動。我只是不想向你承諾一個有很大未知數的數字。

Got it. And then just as a follow-up, Bill, you've never been shy whether you've testified to Congress or with your views on your CEO letters. There's a new administration. I think they're listening. So if you were talking to them and you do indirectly through the different industry groups, what would you hope to see changed as it relates to the regulation at PNC?

知道了。然後作為後續問題，比爾，無論您是向國會作證還是在 CEO 信中表達觀點，您從不羞於表達。有新的政府了。我想他們正在聽。因此，如果您與他們交談，並且透過不同的行業團體間接地與他們交談，您希望看到與 PNC 監管相關的哪些變化？

A couple of different things. One is, I think the government has to get off of the assumption that somehow the banking industry is the piggy bank to cure the ills in the world. All of the silliness around canceling fees and rebating and all the other stuff, I think they got to get back to following the law and I think that will be a good thing. And of course, the industry is sued on a number of those proposals, and I would expect that we'll have some success with that.

一些不同的事情。一是，我認為政府必須擺脫這樣的假設：銀行業是解決世界弊病的儲蓄罐。對於取消費用和回扣以及所有其他東西的愚蠢行為，我認為他們必須重新遵守法律，我認為這是一件好事。當然，業界已經因許多提案而遭到起訴，我希望我們能夠取得一些成功。

I think they need to focus, and we repeatedly emphasized, this notion of focus on the core risks. We spend too much energy on things that do not affect the safety and soundness of the banking institution and not enough, as we saw a year ago, on things that do. And I would hope to see that we'll see some changes inside of that. There, at some point, they'll renew Basel III. My best guess is that will be a neutral outcome. I don't think it's going to cause things to go lower. I don't think it's going to cause them to go up.

我認為他們需要集中註意力，我們也一再強調過，要集中註意力於核心風險。我們在不影響銀行機構安全性和穩健性的事情上花費了太多精力，而正如我們一年前所看到的，在影響銀行機構安全性和穩健性的事情上投入的精力卻不夠。我希望看到其中的一些變化。在某個時候，他們會更新巴塞爾協議 III。我最好的猜測是這將是一個中性的結果。我認為這不會導致事態進一步惡化。我認為這不會使它們上漲。

There's going to be some changes to the stress test that maybe reduces volatility. But personally, I don't expect big changes in the outcome. And that's kind of it. Let us do our job. The banking industry does a lot of good for this country. And I think, by and large, the industry is in a really good place over the next couple of years.

壓力測試將會有一些變化，也許可以降低波動性。但就我個人而言，我並不認為結果會有太大變化。就是這樣。讓我們做好我們的工作。銀行業為這個國家做了很多好事。我認為，總體而言，未來幾年該行業將會處於非常好的狀態。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

So first question, just one more on the loan growth. I wonder how much of the C&I weakness is a function of pay downs, right? Because companies can go term out, pay down their C&I loan. But now with SOFR three year -- two-year, three-year, four-year, five-year portion of the curve pretty flat, would -- is there any changes going on there? Could you discuss how much that is impacting the overall number?

第一個問題是關於貸款成長的問題。我想知道，C&I 的疲軟在多大程度上是由還款造成的，對嗎？因為公司可以延期償還其 C&I 貸款。但現在 SOFR 三年期（兩年、三年、四年、五年）曲線部分相當平坦，那裡會發生任何變化嗎？您能討論一下這對總體數字的影響有多大嗎？

I don't think at all. The shape of the curve is largely irrelevant. The company figures out how long they want to borrow for and whether they want to do it fixed or floating. And they can achieve that either through a bond in the capital market swap or a loan that's swapped the other way or whichever way they want to do it. So I think this is raw demand for capital. I think, as I said, for large corporates, the component in the capital markets is really attractive. So that's driven by spread and demand in public markets as opposed to some notion of expense.

我根本不這麼認為。曲線的形狀基本上無關緊要。公司確定他們想要藉款的時間長度以及他們想要固定借款還是浮動借款。他們可以透過資本市場互換債券、以其他方式互換貸款或以任何他們想要的方式實現這一目標。所以我認為這是對資本的原始需求。我認為，正如我所說，對於大公司來說，資本市場的組成部分確實具有吸引力。因此，這是由公開市場的價差和需求所驅動，而不是由費用概念所驅動。

All right, okay. So really, originations are really low, okay --

好的，好的。所以實際上，發起量真的很低，好吧--

But that's not right either.

但這也不對。

It's just going to --

這只會--

Originations are high. Utilization is low.

發起率很高。利用率低。

Yes. So Betsy, our unfunded commitment growth has been strong all year, including in the fourth quarter. So those are lines that our commercial customers are establishing that they're paying for, which is probably the strongest indication of borrowing intent.

是的。所以 Betsy，我們的未撥付承諾成長全年都很強勁，包括第四季。因此，這些都是我們的商業客戶建立的他們正在支付的額度，這可能是藉貸意圖最強烈的跡象。

Okay. So separate question just on liquidity. I think, Rob, you mentioned the liquidity number that you've got at the Fed and with rate cuts anticipated coming up. And I know your LCR ratio is super high. You have a really, really strong liquidity. You're best-in-class on liquidity by far. I'm just wondering, are we leaving some money on the table by keeping all that there? Is there any -- within your outlook for NII this year, do you keep all that liquidity at the Fed this year or is there some redeployment that's expected at some point?

好的。所以，我僅就流動性提出一個單獨的問題。羅布，我想你提到了聯準會的流動性數字，以及即將來臨的降息。我知道你的 LCR 比率非常高。你的流動性非常非常強。你們的流動性是迄今為止最好的。我只是想知道，如果把這些都保留在那裡，我們是否會損失一些錢？在您對今年的國家資訊基礎資產 (NII) 的展望中，您是否會在今年將所有流動性保留在美聯儲，或者是否會在某個時候進行一些預計的重新部署？

That's actually a fair question. If we knew with certainty that there really wasn't going to be any loan growth, then we would probably deploy the cash in a different form that would have a slightly higher yield. So there is an interplay there that probably isn't in our guidance and is fair.

這實際上是一個公平的問題。如果我們確信貸款不會成長，那麼我們可能會以其他形式部署現金，以獲得略高的收益。因此，其中存在的相互作用可能不在我們的指導範圍內，而且是公平的。

And reflects our optimism even though it's not in our guidance.

儘管這並不在我們的預期之內，但也反映了我們的樂觀態度。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Gerard Cassidy。

Can you share with me -- I understand the competition from the capital markets, you guys have been dealing with this for 40 years. The private credit area seems to have, obviously, you've gained a lot of attention in these last couple of years. And I kind of wonder, when Basel III Endgame originally came out in July of '23, a lot of banks had to kind of reassess their risk-weighted assets. We heard about risk-weighted asset diets and stuff.

您能否與我分享一下—我了解資本市場的競爭，你們已經應對這個問題 40 年了。顯然，私人信貸領域在過去幾年中似乎已經獲得了許多關注。我有點好奇，當 23 年 7 月巴塞爾協議 III 終局首次出台時，許多銀行必須重新評估其風險加權資產。我們聽說過風險加權資產飲食等等。

And I'm wondering if the private credit guys took advantage of that. Do you bump into them much out -- and maybe in the large corporate you might build, but do you guys see them in the middle markets at all? Or no, it's really just the large stuff that tend to swim in that ocean?

我想知道私人信貸人員是否利用了這一點。您是否經常遇到他們——也許在您可能建立的大公司裡，但您在中端市場看到過他們嗎？或者不是，真的只有大型物體才會在那片海洋中游動？

So you're hitting on two different things. The risk-weighted asset diet that many people went on was structured credit sales effectively using a credit derivative to ensure some bottom tranche on autos or --

因此，您談的是兩件不同的事情。許多人進行的風險加權資產投資策略是結構化的信貸銷售，有效地使用信貸衍生品來確保汽車或--

Low-yielding assets.

低收益資產。

So that was much more of selling the riskiest tranche of a pool of credit I already hold to get regulatory capital arbitrage. The private capital movement of capital basically moving into credit is the next investment vehicle. It's interesting, we had this conversation with a bunch of bank CEOs at a conference meeting we had, where none of us kind of said we ever -- like we haven't seen a deal we've lost that we wanted.

因此，這更多的是出售我所持有的信貸池中風險最高的部分，以獲得監管資本套利。私人資本流動，即資本基本上轉向信貸，是下一個投資工具。有趣的是，我們在一次會議上與一群銀行執行長進行了交談，我們中沒有人說我們從未失去我們想要的交易。

However, we have seen -- we haven't competed away at levels that we just wouldn't match. So at the margin, it matters. It's one of the reasons at PNC, we formed this partnership with TCW so that in some of those instances, instead of losing the client in that case, we keep the client through a different vehicle to keep all the TM and fee --

然而，我們已經看到——我們還沒有在無法匹敵的水平上進行競爭。因此從邊際上來說，這很重要。這是 PNC 與 TCW 建立合作關係的原因之一，這樣在某些情況下，我們不會失去客戶，而是透過其他方式留住客戶，保留所有 TM 和費用--

Operating --

操作--

Yes, today. But it's not -- none of that -- like whatever is happening in private credit for all the headlines, that has nothing to do with why our loan growth is lower than it's been historically.

是的，今天。但這並不是——根本不是——就像所有頭條新聞中私人信貸發生的一切一樣，這與我們的貸款成長低於歷史水平沒有任何關係。

And you guys have been very strong in the asset-backed lending area. Do you see other competitors in that arena or no, it's just the traditional asset-backed lenders that you've competed against for years?

你們在資產抵押貸款領域表現非常強勁。您是否認為該領域還有其他競爭對手？

We're pretty much -- it's the traditional people. I mean, any -- when you talk about asset-backed lending asset base, it's a big operational business. Hundreds of field -- yes, it's hundreds of field auditors across the country. It's very difficult for a fund to say, okay, I'm going to enter that business because it's a giant operating business that goes along with it.

我們基本上是──傳統的人。我的意思是，當你談論資產支持貸款資產基礎時，這是一項龐大的營運業務。數百名現場——是的，全國各地有數百名現場審計員。對於一個基金來說，說「好吧，我要進入那個行業」是非常困難的，因為這是一個與之相伴的龐大的營運業務。

And then just as a follow-up on the rollout of, you talked about building out the new branches and the plans for doing this. Are there -- where do you head first? Is it in the Southwest? Is it the West Coast? Or what's the layout that we should expect as you build that out over the next number of years?

然後，作為推出的後續行動，您談到了建立新的分支機構以及這樣做的計劃。還有──你首先要去哪裡？是在西南嗎？是西海岸嗎？或者在未來幾年內，我們應該期待什麼樣的佈局？

Gerard, it's Rob. Yes, I would say it's in all the places that you would expect. The recent sort of step-up has a focus on South Florida, the Miami area. But of course, in our expansion markets in Texas, Arizona, Colorado, those are the places.

傑拉德，我是羅布。是的，我想說它出現在所有你能想到的地方。最近的加強重點是南佛羅裡達州和邁阿密地區。但當然，我們在德州、亞利桑那州、科羅拉多州的擴張市場就是這些地方。

Got it. So nothing here in Portland, Maine and --

知道了。因此，緬因州波特蘭市和--

Yes, we're going to get back to you on that one.

是的，我們會就此事回覆您。

Bill Carcache, Wolfe Research.

比爾‧卡卡什（Bill Carcache），沃爾夫研究公司。

Following up on the -- you mentioned, Bill, that you're close to rolling out your online banking platform. Is that in relation to your expansion markets? I was hoping you could maybe just speak to how that complements your existing physical and digital channels.

比爾，你剛才提到，你即將推出你的網路銀行平台。這和你們的擴張市場有關嗎？我希望您可以談談這是如何補充您現有的實體和數位管道的。

It's one of the pieces of the puzzle of basically making everything we do cloud native and micro service-based. So it will be a better experience for our customers in the sense that it's more easily navigable, there's more self-service. But the biggest thing that it does for us is it allows us to change and introduce products on the fly.

它是使我們所做的一切基本上都基於雲端原生和微服務的難題之一。因此，這將為我們的客戶帶來更好的體驗，因為它更容易導航，並提供更多的自助服務。但它對我們來說最大的作用是讓我們隨時改變和推出產品。

So we can pull what used to be a six-month process to update something on online banking, we could literally do overnight with a new system. Highly complex and big investment that we've been at for a couple of years. And ultimately, it just -- it will raise our scores with the consumers on online. One of the things, still on a little bit here, when we do customer surveys and get feedback experience with PNC, we score off the charts on our branch experience. And we're no better than average with our online and mobile. We need to do better than average, which is why we're pursuing this.

因此，我們可以將過去需要六個月才能更新網路銀行的過程，透過新系統，我們實際上可以在一夜之間完成。這個專案非常複雜，而且投入巨大，我們已經做了好幾年了。最終，它將提高我們在網路上與消費者的評分。其中一件事，這裡仍然需要強調一下，當我們進行客戶調查並獲得 PNC 的回饋經驗時，我們在分支機構體驗方面的得分非常高。我們在網路和移動方面的表現並不比平均好。我們需要做得比平均更好，這就是我們追求這一目標的原因。

That's helpful. Rob, I wanted to ask if you could discuss what drove the valuation adjustments that led to an increase in reserves for the office portfolio. How are you thinking about the risk of similar adjustments leading to incremental reserve building from here, particularly if we don't get any more cuts?

這很有幫助。羅布，我想問您是否可以討論一下是什麼推動了估值調整，從而導致辦公室投資組合儲備增加。您如何看待類似調整帶來的風險，從而導致儲備增量，特別是如果我們不再削減的話？

Yes. So as I mentioned, we're adequately reserved in terms of how we look at things. Credit looks good. Commercial non-CRE, in particular, improved during the quarter. Our outlook improved. Consumer is pretty good. Within the CRE office space, we've got some moving parts there. The good news is that the outstandings are coming down. We're managing it. There's some idiosyncratic pieces there where the reserves moved a little bit in percentage but really not a big change there. We just continue to work through it.

是的。正如我剛才提到的，我們在看待事物方面是足夠保守的。信用看起來不錯。尤其是商業非CRE在本季有所改善。我們的前景改善了。消費者獲得非常好。在 CRE 辦公空間內，我們有一些活動部件。好消息是未償還債務正在減少。我們正在管理它。有一些特殊的情況，儲備的百分比略有變化，但實際上變化並不大。我們只是繼續努力。

I think we have -- every quarter, we have the same discussion around the reserve in the sense that we have a high percentage relative to many of our peers in terms of what we reserve. And we do that largely because there really isn't a market established yet, like a clearing market where properties trade. There just hasn't been that much that has moved. There's been extensions. There's been pay downs. There's been a variety different things, but there's not a stabilized market, which is why we remain concerned to remain reserved.

我想我們每季都會就儲備進行同樣的討論，因為就儲備而言，我們的比例相對於許多同業而言很高。我們這樣做主要是因為實際上還沒有建立起一個市場，例如一個進行房地產交易的清算市場。只是還沒有發生太多的移動。已經有擴充了。已經有人付錢了。發生了各種不同的事情，但市場尚未穩定，這就是我們仍然擔心保持保留的原因。

And the good news for us, as you know, Bill, it's a small percentage of our overall loans so there's some lumpiness in there from quarter-to-quarter. So we actually -- our charge-offs on office went down in the fourth quarter from the third quarter. We didn't expect that. We do expect more. So we just need to work through it.

對我們來說好消息是，正如比爾你所知，這只占我們整體貸款的一小部分，因此季度間存在一些波動。因此，我們實際上——第四季的辦公室沖銷額比第三季有所下降。我們沒想到這一點。我們確實期待更多。所以我們只需要努力解決這個問題。

That's helpful. If I could squeeze in one more on your hedging strategy. Can you discuss the uptick in forward starting swaps that we saw this quarter and how you're thinking about potentially putting on new forward starters as we look ahead from here?

這很有幫助。如果我能夠再多談一點關於你的對沖策略的話。您能否討論一下本季我們看到的前鋒首發互換的上升趨勢，以及您如何考慮在未來引入新的前鋒首發？

Yes. I mean, it's actually pretty straightforward. So our roll-off of fixed rate assets, and we've put that out publicly for securities or loans, when we look at the forward curve available at any given point in time, we can choose to lock in that rate on that replacement yield. So if it's a treasury that's going to mature in 1.5 years with a 2% coupon, I can effectively choose to buy that treasury forward at a 4.5% coupon.

是的。我的意思是，這實際上非常簡單。因此，我們推出固定利率資產，並已將其公開用於證券或貸款，當我們查看任何給定時間點的遠期曲線時，我們可以選擇將該利率鎖定在該替代收入率上。因此，如果這是一張將在 1.5 年內到期、票面利率為 2% 的國債，那麼我可以有效地選擇以 4.5% 的票面利率遠期購買該國債。

And so we've been gradually fighting off. That's why we say we're really comfortable with where we are in '25 because we've used swaps like that to effectively lock in these maturing fixed rate assets. And we continue to look at in MIL start biting off pieces of '26 and '27 because it continues. What we see through '25 ought to continue through the next couple of years if rates follow the forward curve. So there's a big opportunity there, and you'll see us using that tool to lock some of that in over time.

因此我們一直在逐步抵抗。這就是為什麼我們說我們對 25 年的狀況感到非常滿意，因為我們已經使用了類似的掉期來有效鎖定這些到期的固定利率資產。我們繼續關注 MIL 開始咬合 26 年和 27 年的部分，因為它還在繼續。如果利率遵循遠期曲線，那麼我們在 25 年看到的狀況應該會在未來幾年繼續下去。因此，這是一個很大的機會，你會看到我們使用該工具來隨著時間的推移鎖定其中的一些機會。

Throughout the balance of '25 as we lock in the future years.

在我們鎖定未來幾年的 25 年平衡期間。

Yes.

是的。

(Operator Instructions) Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

（操作員指示）德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

Can you guys remind us, do you have any targeted capital level either on a stated CET1 or adjusted for AOCI?

你們能否提醒我們，你們是否有任何目標資本水平，無論是根據規定的 CET1 還是根據 AOCI 進行調整？

We don't. Matt, it's Rob. We don't have a stated target. But obviously, we continue to build levels. We're 10.5% on CET1, 9.2% on the revised. Our minimum requirement is 7%. So we've got a lot of flexibility, but we don't have an explicit target and part of that is because the rules are still in flux.

我們沒有。馬特，我是羅布。我們沒有明確目標。但顯然，我們會繼續提升水平。我們的 CET1 成績為 10.5%，修訂後的成績為 9.2%。我們的最低要求是7%。因此，我們擁有很大的靈活性，但我們沒有明確的目標，部分原因是規則仍在不斷變化。

Okay. Yes. I mean, it seems like I know it's been kind of covered, but it was impressive that the adjusted capital was stable despite the move in rates, so you gave a lot of disclosure on the securities book. The duration didn't really extend. So it feels like with sluggish loan growth and your buyback assumptions that the capital ratios will continue to build off already high levels.

好的。是的。我的意思是，似乎我知道這已經被涵蓋了，但令人印象深刻的是，儘管利率變動，但調整後的資本仍然穩定，因此你在證券賬簿上給出了大量披露。持續時間實際上並沒有延長。因此，看起來，由於貸款成長緩慢以及回購假設，資本比率將繼續在已經很高的水平上上升。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

And then separately on the expenses, I mean, obviously, the operating leverage is strong but the kind of 1% growth includes some of the lumpiest in the base. And I guess the punchline is on a quarter basis, the expenses are going up 3%. And obviously, you're leaning into some areas on investment. Is that kind of a good medium-term run rate? Or is it just maybe a step-up for a short period of time as you fully load those expansion efforts?

然後單獨談談費用，我的意思是，顯然，經營槓桿很高，但 1% 的成長包括一些最不均衡的成長。我想，關鍵在於按季度計算，費用將上漲 3%。顯然，您在投資方面傾向於某些領域。這是一個好的中期運行率嗎？或者這只是在您全力進行擴展工作期間的一個短暫時期內的步驟？

I think you've got a handle on it. We guided up to the 1% off the reported numbers just because it's easier that way as we talk about it through the balance of '25. But expenses up in that 3% range is typical for us and obviously reflects, on a core basis, obviously reflects a lot of investment.

我想你已經掌握了竅門。我們將報告數字的指導價提高到 1%，只是因為這樣當我們透過 25 年的餘額討論它時更容易。但費用上漲 3% 對我們來說很正常，這顯然從核心基礎反映了大量的投資。

Yes. Importantly, the investment that we are making is not at all catch-up to something we should have done. This is new branches, it's new technology. It's larger data centers that are more resilient. It's everything positioning us to accelerate our organic growth. So these are all dollars spent to make money.

是的。重要的是，我們所做的投資根本趕不上我們應該做的事情。這是新的分支，這是新的技術。資料中心越大，其彈性就越強。這一切都是為了加速我們的有機成長。所以這些都是為了賺錢而花的錢。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess maybe, Bill, remind us of your thoughts around -- we talked about regulations earlier. Absent a significant pickup in loan demand, it doesn't seem like the operating backdrop on the revenue side is going to be that great for the banks. How does that inform your view in terms of the window of opportunity from a regulatory political backdrop to do a transformational M&A?

我想也許，比爾，請提醒我們你的想法──我們之前談到了法規。如果貸款需求沒有明顯回升，銀行的收入經營環境似乎不會太好。從監管政治背景來看，這對您如何看待轉型性併購的機會之窗？

And you've talked about it in the past in terms of competing with the big banks, having sort of a national presence. Like what are the odds where those opportunities come up and you actually tap into that? Understanding you'll be disciplined, you know the math. So I appreciate all of that.

您過去也曾談到與大銀行競爭以及在全國範圍內開展業務的問題。例如，這些機會出現的幾率有多大，你真正利用這些機會的幾率有多大？了解你會受到紀律處分，你懂得數學。所以我非常感謝這一切。

I think, look, at the margin, it's -- my guess is it's gotten easier to get a deal approved, although I think we could have been approved with the old administration. The challenge is, and you're going to hear this on every earnings call, everybody is an acquirer, nobody's a seller. There's wind at the back on bank earnings as a function of the rate turnover. Credit is not bad. So I think the mindset you run into is, hey, we'll hang out. We'll make more money next year, and we'll worry about whether we have a long-term franchise somewhere later. It's not our problem today. And that's an environment where is it an honest buyer that's growing, it's tough to force an outcome and we don't intend to try to do that.

我認為，從邊際上看，——我的猜測是，獲得協議批准變得更容易了，儘管我認為我們本可以在舊政府的領導下獲得批准。挑戰在於，你會在每次財報電話會議上聽到這樣的話，每個人都是收購者，沒有人是賣家。銀行獲利隨著利率週轉率上升而呈現逆風態勢。貴意還不錯。所以我認為你遇到的心態是，嘿，我們出去玩吧。明年我們會賺更多的錢，以後我們會擔心是否能在某個地方擁有長期的特許經營權。這不是我們今天的問題。在這樣的環境中，誠實的買家不斷成長，很難強迫產生結果，我們也不打算嘗試這麼做。

Got it, all right. So your response is like short term is an overtake shareholder value creation in terms of --

知道了，好的。所以你的回答就像短期內超越股東價值創造一樣--

Look, I think -- yes. So I think the structural issues in the banking industry are just violently apparent when you look at the deposit shifts to the largest banks, the growth in DDA accounts. By the way, we grew DDA this year at a pace we haven't maybe ever. But we're one of a handful of banks across the whole industry that was actually able to do that.

瞧，我認為——是的。因此，我認為，當你看到存款轉移到最大銀行以及 DDA 帳戶的成長時，銀行業的結構性問題就顯而易見。順便說一句，今年 DDA 的成長速度是我們從未有過的。但我們是整個產業中少數能夠做到這一點的銀行之一。

And so when you just look at the fundamentals underlying the amount of the cost of funding, the increased balances of brokered deposits, the lack of fee income and products to sell that some of the smaller banks run into, you ought to see consolidation, yet we're in a period where everybody thinks they're going to be the consolidator. So I don't know what's going to happen.

因此，當您只看融資成本數額、經紀存款餘額的增加、費用收入的缺乏以及一些小型銀行遇到的可銷售產品的基本面時，您應該看到整合，但我們正處於一個每個人都認為自己將成為整合者的時期。所以我不知道會發生什麼事。

Fair point, I agree. And I guess maybe just a quick 1, following up on credit quality. If we don't get any Fed rate cuts, employment holds up okay, is it your sense that credit quality is generally okay? There are no real stress points in that backdrop?

有道理，我同意。我想也許只是快速跟進信用品質。如果聯準會不降息，就業率仍會保持良好，您是否認為信貸品質總體還不錯？在這樣的背景下沒有真正的壓力點嗎？

Yes, I think that's right. Our expectation was my expectation for a while is kind of playing out. We're going to -- I don't think even when they get a couple of cuts, we're going to be there for a while, and I think the back end is under pressure. So what happens through time is a lot of the locked-in low interest rates that corporate America has done will roll off, and you'll see their debt coverage ratios decline a bit down the road. But not their solvency, not actual loss content because of the strength of the economy. So I think we're absolutely fine. I think the Fed has landed this and we're in a good place.

是的，我認為是這樣。我們的期望是我的期望，一段時間以來，這種期望正在逐漸實現。我們會——我認為，即使他們削減了一些開支，我們也會在那裡待一段時間，而且我認為後端面臨壓力。因此，隨著時間的推移，美國企業所鎖定的低利率將會逐漸取消，你會看到他們的債務覆蓋率會略有下降。但不是他們的償付能力，不是由於經濟實力而產生的實際損失內容。所以我認為我們完全沒問題。我認為聯準會已經實現了這一目標，我們處於有利地位。

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to hand the call back over to Bryan Gill for closing comments.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題。現在，我想將電話轉回給 Bryan Gill，請他作最後評論。

Well, thank you, Daryl, and thank you all for joining our call today and your interest in PNC. And please feel free to reach out to the IR team if you have any follow-up questions.

好吧，謝謝你，達裡爾，也謝謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議並感謝你們對 PNC 的關注。如果您有任何後續問題，請隨時聯絡 IR 團隊。

Thanks, everybody.

謝謝大家。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開您的線路。祝你剩餘的時光愉快。