PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the PNC Financial Services Group Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Brian Gill. Thank you, Brian. You may begin.

您好，歡迎參加 PNC 金融服務集團收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興向大家介紹你們的主持人布萊恩吉爾。謝謝你，布萊恩。你可以開始了。

Well, good morning, and welcome to today's conference call for the PNC Financial Services Group. I am Bryan Gill, the Director of Investor Relations for PNC and participating on this call are PNC's Chairman and CEO, Bill Demchak; and Rob Reilly, Executive Vice President and CFO.

早安，歡迎參加今天的 PNC 金融服務集團電話會議。我是 PNC 投資者關係總監 Bryan Gill，參加本次電話會議的有 PNC 董事長兼執行長 Bill Demchak；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Rob Reilly。

Today's presentation contains forward-looking information. Cautionary statements about this information as well as reconciliations of non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release materials as well as our SEC filings and other investor materials. These are all available on our corporate website, pnc.com, under Investor Relations. These statements speak only as of April 16, 2024, and PNC undertakes no obligation to update them.

今天的演示包含前瞻性資訊。有關此資訊的警告性聲明以及非公認會計原則措施的調節包含在今天的收益發布資料以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件和其他投資者資料中。這些都可以在我們公司網站 pnc.com 的「投資者關係」下找到。這些聲明僅截至 2024 年 4 月 16 日，PNC 不承擔更新義務。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bill.

現在我想把電話轉給比爾。

Thank you, Bryan, and good morning, everyone. In the first quarter, we executed well and delivered solid financial results. We generated $1.3 billion in net income and adjusting for the FDIC special assessment, $3. 36 per share. Rob will provide details on our results in a moment, but I'll start with a few thoughts. First, we continue to grow our business. .

謝謝布萊恩，大家早安。第一季度，我們執行良好，並取得了穩健的財務表現。我們創造了 13 億美元的淨利潤，並根據 FDIC 特別評估調整為 3 美元。每股36。羅布稍後將提供有關我們結果的詳細信息，但我將首先提出一些想法。首先，我們繼續發展我們的業務。 。

In the first quarter, we added new customers across our segments and increased deposits on a spot basis. We're continuing to invest heavily in our franchise to drive growth and gain share, particularly in our retail banking technology platform, our payments businesses and our expansion markets. To that end, in the first quarter, we announced a multiyear investment of nearly $1 billion in our branch network to renovate more than 1,200 locations and open new branches in key locations, including Austin, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Miami and San Antonio.

第一季度，我們在各部門增加了新客戶，並增加了現貨存款。我們將繼續大力投資我們的特許經營業務，以推動成長並獲得份額，特別是在我們的零售銀行技術平台、支付業務和擴張市場方面。為此，我們在第一季宣布對分支機構網絡進行近10 億美元的多年投資，以翻新1,200 多個分支機構，並在關鍵地點開設新分支機構，包括奧斯汀、達拉斯、丹佛、休斯頓、邁阿密和聖安東尼奧。

Second, expenses were well managed during the quarter. As we've indicated, expense discipline remains a top priority, and we are on track to maintain stable core expenses in 2024. Third, credit quality remained stable during the quarter. The office portfolio remains an area of focus, but we are adequately reserved overall and particularly with respect to CRE. We believe our thoughtful approach to managing risk, customer selection and long-term relationship development will continue to serve us well. And fourth, we continue to build on our strong liquidity and capital position during the quarter, providing us with the financial strength and flexibility to help us support our clients, grow our businesses and capitalize on future opportunities.

其次，本季的費用管理良好。正如我們所指出的，費用紀律仍然是重中之重，我們預計在 2024 年保持穩定的核心費用。辦公室組合仍然是一個重點領域，但我們總體上有足夠的保留，特別是在商業房地產方面。我們相信，我們在管理風險、客戶選擇和長期關係發展方面的深思熟慮的方法將繼續為我們提供良好的服務。第四，我們在本季繼續鞏固強大的流動性和資本狀況，為我們提供財務實力和靈活性，幫助我們支持客戶、發展業務並利用未來的機會。

In summary, we delivered solid results during the first quarter and positioned ourselves well for the balance of 2024 and beyond. Last month, we launched a brand campaign celebrating our [boring] approach to banking. Now obviously, we're using humor in the campaign to have a little fun and grab the public's attention. But inside of that humor is honestly about who we are, how we think about risk and how we run our company. In short, it is everything we do to be steady and predictable. Finally, I just want to thank our employees for everything they do for our customers, for each other and for all of our stakeholders. And with that, I'll turn it over to Rob to take you through the quarter. Rob?

總而言之，我們在第一季取得了穩健的業績，並為 2024 年及以後的剩餘時間做好了準備。上個月，我們發起了一場品牌活動，慶祝我們的[無聊]銀行業務方式。顯然，我們在競選活動中使用幽默來獲得一點樂趣並吸引公眾的注意。但這種幽默的本質是誠實地講述我們是誰、我們如何看待風險以及我們如何經營我們的公司。簡而言之，我們所做的一切都是為了穩定和可預測。最後，我只想感謝我們的員工為客戶、彼此以及所有利害關係人所做的一切。接下來，我將把它交給 Rob，讓他帶您了解這個季度的情況。搶？

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Our balance sheet is on Slide 4 and is presented on an average linked-quarter basis. Loans of $321 billion decreased $4 billion or 1%. Investment securities declined $2 billion or 1%. And our cash balances at the Federal Reserve were $48 billion, an increase of $6 billion or 13%. On a spot basis, our cash at the Fed was $53 billion, up from $43 billion in the prior quarter, reflecting higher period-end deposits. Deposit balances averaged $420 billion, a decline of $4 billion or 1%, reflecting seasonally lower commercial deposits. However, on a spot basis, deposits were up $4 billion, reflecting growth in both commercial and consumer deposits. .

謝謝比爾，大家早安。我們的資產負債表位於投影片 4 上，並以平均關聯季度為基礎呈現。貸款 3,210 億美元減少 40 億美元，即 1%。投資證券下跌 20 億美元，或 1%。我們在聯準會的現金餘額為 480 億美元，增加了 60 億美元，即 13%。以現貨計算，我們在聯準會的現金為 530 億美元，高於上一季的 430 億美元，反映出期末存款增加。存款餘額平均為 4,200 億美元，下降 40 億美元或 1%，反映出商業存款季節性下降。然而，以即期計算，存款增加了 40 億美元，反映了商業和消費者存款的成長。 。

Borrowed funds increased $3 billion to $76 billion, primarily driven by parent company debt issuances early in the quarter. At quarter end, AOCI was a negative $8 billion compared to a negative $7.7 billion at December 31, reflecting the impact of higher interest rates. Our tangible book value increased to $85.70 per common share, an 11% increase compared to the same period a year ago. We remain well capitalized with an estimated CET1 ratio of 10.1% as of March 31.

借入資金增加 30 億美元，達到 760 億美元，主要是由本季初母公司債券發行的推動。截至季末，AOCI 為負 80 億美元，而截至 12 月 31 日為負 77 億美元，反映了利率上升的影響。我們的有形帳面價值增至每股普通股 85.70 美元，比去年同期成長 11%。截至 3 月 31 日，我們的資本充足，預計 CET1 比率為 10.1%。

While we recognize the likelihood of potentially substantial changes to the Basel III endgame NPR, under the currently proposed capital rules, our estimated fully phased-in expanded risk-based CET1 ratio would be approximately 8.3% as of March 31, 2024. We continue to be well positioned with capital flexibility, share repurchases approximated $135 million or roughly 1 million shares. And when combined with $624 million of common dividends, we returned $759 million of capital to shareholders during the quarter.

雖然我們認識到巴塞爾協議 III 最終 NPR 可能發生重大變化，但根據目前擬議的資本規則，我們估計截至 2024 年 3 月 31 日，完全分階段擴大的基於風險的 CET1 比率將約為 8.3%。資本靈活，股票回購額約1.35 億美元或約100 萬股。加上 6.24 億美元的普通股息，我們本季向股東返還了 7.59 億美元的資本。

Slide 5 shows our loans in more detail. Compared to the fourth quarter, average loan balances decreased 1%, primarily driven by lower commercial loan balances. Commercial loans were $219 billion, a decrease of $3.4 billion, driven by lower utilization as well as soft loan demand. Within the corporate and Institutional bank, utilization rates have remained below 2023 year-end levels and have not increased in the first quarter as is historically typical.

幻燈片 5 更詳細地展示了我們的貸款。與第四季相比，平均貸款餘額下降 1%，主要是由於商業貸款餘額下降。由於利用率下降以及貸款需求疲軟，商業貸款為 2,190 億美元，減少 34 億美元。在企業和機構銀行內部，利用率仍低於 2023 年底的水平，並且第一季的利用率並未像歷史上典型的那樣出現增長。

We expect utilization to increase throughout the year. Notably, each percent of utilization within [C&IB] equates to $4 billion of loan growth. Consumer loans declined approximately $600 million, driven by lower credit card and home equity balances. And total loan yields increased 7 basis points to 6.01% in the first quarter. Slide 6 details our investment security and swap portfolios. Average investment securities of $135 billion decreased 1% as curtailed purchase activity was more than offset by portfolio paydowns and maturities.

我們預計全年利用率將會增加。值得注意的是，[C&IB] 內的每一個利用率都相當於 40 億美元的貸款成長。由於信用卡和房屋淨值餘額減少，消費者貸款減少了約 6 億美元。第一季貸款總收益率上升7個基點至6.01%。投影片 6 詳細介紹了我們的投資安全和掉期投資組合。平均投資證券為 1,350 億美元，下降了 1%，因為購買活動的減少被投資組合償還和到期所抵消。

The securities portfolio yield increased 3 basis points to 2.62% reflecting the runoff of lower-yielding securities. As of March 31, the securities portfolio duration was 4 years. Our received fixed swaps pointed to the commercial loan book totaled $37 billion on March 31. The weighted average received fixed rate of our swap portfolio increased 20 basis points to 2.3%, and the duration of the portfolio was 2 years. Through the end of 2024, 13% of our securities and swap portfolio is scheduled to mature, which will allow us to reinvest into higher-yielding assets, providing a meaningful benefit to net interest income in the second half of the year.

證券投資組合殖利率上升 3 個基點至 2.62%，反映出低收益證券的流失。截至3月31日，證券投資組合久期為4年。我們收到的固定互換指向3月31日的商業貸款總額為370億美元。到 2024 年底，我們的證券和掉期投資組合的 13% 計劃到期，這將使我們能夠再投資於更高收益的資產，為下半年的淨利息收入帶來有意義的好處。

Accumulated other comprehensive income was negative $8 billion at March 31, which will accrete back as our securities and swaps mature, resulting in continued tangible book value growth. Slide 7 covers our deposits in more detail. Average deposits decreased $4 billion to $420 billion during the quarter as growth in consumer deposits was more than offset by a seasonal decline in commercial deposits. Regarding mix, consolidated, noninterest-bearing deposits were 24% in the first quarter, down slightly from 25% in the fourth quarter.

截至 3 月 31 日，累計其他綜合收益為負 80 億美元，隨著我們的證券和互換的成熟，該收益將回升，從而導致有形帳面價值持續增長。幻燈片 7 更詳細地介紹了我們的存款。本季平均存款減少 40 億美元，至 4,200 億美元，因為消費者存款的成長被商業存款的季節性下降所抵消。就結構而言，第一季綜合無息存款為 24%，略低於第四季的 25%。

Notably, on a spot basis in the first quarter, noninterest-bearing deposits had the smallest dollar decline since the Fed began raising rates in 2022, which gives us confidence that the noninterest-bearing portion of our deposits has largely stabilized. Our rate paid on interest-bearing deposits increased to 2.6% during the first quarter, up from 2.48% in the prior quarter. And as of March 31, our cumulative deposit beta was 45% and consistent with our expectations.

值得注意的是，從第一季的現貨來看，無息存款的美元跌幅是自聯準會 2022 年開始升息以來最小的，這讓我們相信我們存款的無息部分已基本穩定。第一季我們的計息存款利率從上一季的 2.48% 上升至 2.6%。截至 3 月 31 日，我們的累計存款貝塔值為 45%，與我們的預期一致。

We believe our deposit betas have approached their peak levels, although we do expect some potential drift higher through the period leading up to a Fed rate cut, which we currently expect to occur in July. In regard to the timing and amount of potential rate cuts, we recognize there's a lot of fluidity and uncertainty. However, our 2024 NII will largely be unaffected by any short-term interest rate movement or lack thereof. This is because our floating rate assets are aligned with our floating rate liabilities, including our high beta commercial interest-bearing deposits and our long-term debt, which is almost entirely swapped to floating rates.

我們相信我們的存款貝塔值已經接近峰值水平，儘管我們確實預計在美聯儲降息之前的一段時間內可能會出現一些走高的情況，目前我們預計降息將在 7 月份發生。關於潛在降息的時間和幅度，我們認識到存在著很大的流動性和不確定性。然而，我們 2024 年的 NII 基本上不會受到任何短期利率變動或缺乏短期利率變動的影響。這是因為我們的浮動利率資產與浮動利率負債一致，包括我們的高貝塔商業有息存款和長期債務，這些債務幾乎全部轉換為浮動利率。

Importantly, going forward, we remain well positioned for the NII benefit of repricing low-yielding fixed rate securities and loans maturing during the latter half of 2024 and into 2025. Turning to the income statement on Slide 8. First quarter net income was $1. 3 billion or $3.10 (inaudible) increased FDIC special assessment. Excluding noncore expenses, adjusted EPS was $3.36 per share. Total revenue of $5.1 billion decreased $216 million or 4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. Net interest income declined by $139 million or 4%. And our net interest margin was 2.57%, a decline of 9 basis points, resulting primarily from higher funding costs. Noninterest income decreased $77 million or 4%. And Noninterest expense of $3.3 billion declined $740 million or 18% and included $130 million FDIC special assessment. Importantly, Certainly, core noninterest expense was $3.2 billion and decreased $205 million or 6%.

重要的是，展望未來，我們仍然處於有利地位，可以從對2024 年下半年到2025 年到期的低收益固定利率證券和貸款進行重新定價的NII 收益中受益。 。 FDIC 特別評估增加 30 億美元或 3.10 美元（聽不清楚）。不包括非核心費用，調整後每股收益為 3.36 美元。總收入為 51 億美元，與 2023 年第四季相比減少 2.16 億美元，即 4%。淨利差為2.57%，下降9個基點，主要是由於融資成本上升。非利息收入減少 7,700 萬美元，即 4%。非利息支出為 33 億美元，減少了 7.4 億美元，即 18%，其中包括 1.3 億美元的 FDIC 特別評估。重要的是，核心非利息支出為 32 億美元，減少了 2.05 億美元，即 6%。

Provision was $155 million in the first quarter, reflecting portfolio activity and improved macroeconomic factors. And our effective tax rate was 18.8% and in part a seasonal decline in fee income. Net interest income of $3.3 billion declined $139 million or 4%, reflecting increased funding costs, lower loan balances and 1 less day in the quarter. Fee income was $1.7 billion and decreased $74 million or 4% linked quarter.

第一季撥備金額為 1.55 億美元，反映了投資組合活動和宏觀經濟因素的改善。我們的有效稅率為 18.8%，部分原因是費用收入季節性下降。淨利息收入為 33 億美元，下降 1.39 億美元，或 4%，反映出融資成本增加、貸款餘額減少以及本季減少 1 天。費用收入為 17 億美元，季減 7,400 萬美元，即 4%。

Looking at the detail. Asset management and brokerage revenue was up $4 million or 1%, reflecting higher average equity markets. Capital markets and advisory fees declined $50 million or 16%, driven by lower M&A advisory activity, off elevated fourth quarter levels, partially offset by higher underwriting fees. Card and Cash Management decreased $17 million or 2% driven by seasonally lower consumer transaction volumes, partially offset by higher treasury management fees. Lending and deposit-related fees declined $9 million or 3%, reflecting the reduction of customer fees on certain checking products.

看細節。資產管理和經紀收入成長 400 萬美元，即 1%，反映了股票市場平均水準的提高。由於併購諮詢活動減少，資本市場和諮詢費用下降了 5,000 萬美元，即 16%，較第四季度的高水準有所下降，部分被承銷費用上升所抵消。由於消費者交易量季節性下降，銀行卡和現金管理業務減少了 1,700 萬美元，即 2%，但部分被較高的財務管理費所抵銷。貸款和存款相關費用下降了 900 萬美元，即 3%，反映出某些支票產品的客戶費用減少。

Residential and commercial mortgage revenue declined $2 million or 1% and included lower residential mortgage activity. Other noninterest income of $135 million decreased $3 million or 2%, reflecting lower gains on sales. The first quarter also included a negative $7 million Visa fair value adjustment compared to a negative $100 million adjustment in the fourth quarter.

住宅和商業抵押貸款收入下降了 200 萬美元，即 1%，其中住宅抵押貸款活動減少。其他非利息收入 1.35 億美元減少了 300 萬美元，即 2%，反映出銷售收益下降。第一季還包括 700 萬美元的 Visa 公允價值負調整，而第四季的負調整為 1 億美元。

Turning to Slide 10. Our core noninterest expense of $3.2 billion, decreased $205 million or 6% linked quarter, reflecting strong expense management. Importantly, compared to the first quarter of 2023, core noninterest expense declined $117 million or 4%, with a decline in every expense category. This broad-based result reflects the impact of expense actions taken in 2023. As we previously stated, we implemented expense management actions that will drive $750 million of cost savings in 2024. These actions include the $325 million workforce reduction effort last year, which was realized in our first quarter expense run rate and our $425 million 2024 continuous improvement program goal, which we're well on track to achieve.

轉向投影片 10。重要的是，與 2023 年第一季相比，核心非利息支出下降了 1.17 億美元，即 4%，每個支出類別均下降。這項廣泛基礎的結果反映了2023 年採取的費用行動的影響。 ，這是我們在第一季的費用運行率和 2024 年 4.25 億美元的持續改進計劃目標中實現了這一目標，我們正在順利實現這一目標。

We remain diligent in our expense management efforts, and these actions give us confidence that we'll keep our year-over-year expenses stable. Our credit metrics are presented on Slide 11. While overall credit quality remains resilient, the pressure we anticipated within the commercial real estate office sector has continued. Nonperforming loans increased $200 million or 9% linked quarter, almost entirely driven by commercial real estate, which increased $188 million. And inside of that, approximately $150 million was related to the CRE office portfolio.

我們仍然勤奮地進行費用管理工作，這些行動讓我們有信心保持年比費用穩定。我們的信用指標如投影片 11 所示。不良貸款增加了 2 億美元，季增了 9%，幾乎完全由商業房地產推動，增加了 1.88 億美元。其中，約 1.5 億美元與 CRE 辦公大樓投資組合相關。

Total delinquencies of $1.3 billion decreased $109 million or 8% linked quarter, driven by lower consumer and commercial delinquency. Net loan charge-offs were $243 million in the first quarter, and our annualized net charge-off to average loans ratio was 30 basis points. Our allowance for credit losses totaled $5.4 billion or 1.7% of total loans on March 31, stable at December 31.

由於消費者和商業拖欠率下降，拖欠總額 13 億美元減少了 1.09 億美元，較上季下降 8%。第一季的淨貸款沖銷額為 2.43 億美元，我們的年化淨沖銷額與平均貸款比率為 30 個基點。 3 月 31 日，我們的信貸損失準備金總額為 54 億美元，佔貸款總額的 1.7%，與 12 月 31 日持平。

Slide 12 provides more detail on our CRE office credit metrics. While NPLs have increased over the past few quarters, our criticized balances have remained relatively consistent. The migration of criticized loans to nonperforming status is an expected outcome as we work to resolve the occupancy and rate challenges inherent to this portfolio. In the first quarter, net loan charge-offs within the CRE office portfolio were $50 million, essentially in line with the previous quarter level.

投影片 12 提供了有關我們的商業房地產辦公室信用指標的更多詳細資訊。儘管不良貸款在過去幾季有所增加，但我們批評的餘額仍然相對穩定。在我們努力解決該投資組合固有的入住率和利率挑戰的過程中，受批評的貸款轉為不良貸款是預期的結果。第一季度，商業房地產辦公室組合內的淨貸款沖銷額為 5,000 萬美元，基本上與上一季水準持平。

Ultimately, we expect continued charge-offs on this portfolio. And accordingly, we believe we are adequately reserved. As of March 31, our reserves on the office portfolio were 9.7% of total office loans. And inside of that, 14.4% on the multi-tenant portfolio. Importantly, we continue to manage our exposure down. And as a result, our balances declined 3% or approximately $200 million linked quarter.

最終，我們預計該投資組合將繼續沖銷。因此，我們相信我們有足夠的保留。截至 3 月 31 日，我們的辦公室投資組合準備金佔辦公室貸款總額的 9.7%。其中，14.4% 屬於多租戶投資組合。重要的是，我們繼續控制我們的風險敞口。結果，我們的季度餘額下降了 3%，約 2 億美元。

In summary, PNC reported a solid first quarter 2024, and we're well positioned for the remainder of the year. Regarding our view of the overall economy, we're expecting economic expansion in the second half of the year, resulting in real GDP growth of approximately 2% in 2024 and unemployment to increase modestly to 4% by year-end. We expect the Fed to cut rates 2x in 2024 with a 25 basis point decrease in July and another in November.

總之，PNC 報告 2024 年第一季業績強勁，我們為今年剩餘時間做好了準備。關於我們對整體經濟的看法，我們預計下半年經濟將擴張，到2024年實際GDP成長約為2%，失業率將在年底小幅上升至4%。我們預計聯準會將在 2024 年降息 2 次，其中 7 月降息 25 個基點，11 月再降息 2 次。

Looking at the second quarter of 2024, compared to the first quarter of 2024, we expect average loans to be stable. Net interest income to be down approximately 1%. And as I mentioned previously, we expect NII and net interest margin to trough in the second quarter. Fee income to be up 1% to 2%, other noninterest income to be in the range of $15 0 million and $200 million, excluding Visa activity.

展望2024年第二季度，與2024年第一季相比，我們預期平均貸款將保持穩定。淨利息收入下降約1%。正如我之前提到的，我們預計NII和淨利差將在第二季觸底。費用收入將增加 1% 至 2%，其他非利息收入將在 1,500 萬美元至 2 億美元之間，不包括 Visa 活動。

Taking the component pieces of revenue together, we expect total revenue to be stable. We expect total core noninterest expense to be up 2% to 4%. We expect second quarter net charge-offs to be between $225 million and $275 million. As a reminder, P& C owns 3.5 million Visa Class B shares with an unrecognized gain of approximately $1.6 billion. Under the terms of Visa's current exchange program scheduled to close on or about May 3, Class B shareholders will have the opportunity to monetize 50% of their holdings. We've not included the impact of monetizing the Visa gain in our forecast.

將各個收入組成部分放在一起，我們預計總收入將保持穩定。我們預計核心非利息支出總額將增加 2% 至 4%。我們預計第二季淨沖銷額將在 2.25 億美元至 2.75 億美元之間。需要提醒的是，P&C 擁有 350 萬股 Visa B 類股票，未確認收益約 16 億美元。根據計劃於 5 月 3 日左右結束的 Visa 目前交換計畫的條款，B 類股東將有機會將其 50% 的持股貨幣化。我們的預測中沒有包括 Visa 收益貨幣化的影響。

Turning to Slide 14. Our full year 2024 guidance is unchanged from our January earnings call. And as a reminder, for the full year 2024 compared to the full year 2023, we expect average loan growth of approximately 1%. Total revenue to be stable to down 2%. Inside of that, our expectation is for net interest income to be down in the range of 4% to 5% and noninterest income to be up 4% to 6%. Core noninterest expense, which excludes the FDIC assessment is expected to be stable, and we expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 18.5%. And with that, Bill and I are ready to take your questions.

轉向投影片 14。提醒一下，與 2023 年全年相比，2024 年全年的平均貸款成長約為 1%。總收入穩定下降2%。其中，我們預期淨利息收入將下降4%至5%，非利息收入將增加4%至6%。核心非利息支出（不包括 FDIC 評估）預計將保持穩定，我們預計有效稅率約為 18.5%。至此，比爾和我準備好回答你們的問題了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first questions come from the line of Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

The first question has to do with how you're thinking about the NII indicating 2Q, the trough improving from there and then well, I'll start there.

第一個問題與您如何看待表示 2Q 的 NII 以及從那裡開始改善的低谷有關，然後我將從那裡開始。

betsy, this is Rob. So in terms of NII and the trajectory that we're on, (inaudible) loan growth, but all consistent with our full year guidance. Average loan is up 1%.

貝西，這是羅布。因此，就 NII 和我們所處的軌跡而言，（聽不清楚）貸款成長，但都與我們的全年指導一致。平均貸款成長1%。

And just on that loan growth fees...

就貸款增長費用而言......

I was just going to say that the largest driver is repricing of fixed rate assets. We expect some loan growth, but it's not a heroic number in there. It's simply the rolled out of our securities book.

我只是想說最大的推動因素是固定利率資產的重新定價。我們預計貸款會有所成長，但這並不是一個驚人的數字。這只是我們的證券帳簿的推出。

Okay. Got it. Yes. All right. And on the loan side, it is interesting to see the utilization rates ticking down here. Do you think that's just a function of Fed funds is 5.5%, and that's the base rate from which C&I is priced off of? Or is there other dynamics there besides just rate ?

好的。知道了。是的。好的。在貸款方面，有趣的是，利用率正在下降。您是否認為這只是聯邦基金利率 5.5% 的函數，而且這是 C&I 定價的基本利率？或者除了利率之外還有其他動力嗎？

It's a variety of things. I think the capital markets activity in the first quarter and investment-grade debt put a lot of cash into the system and you just -- you saw companies that could hit that market pay down our revolver. So that was sort of a near-term impact to it. As we look out, there hasn't been any real inventory build, which I would expect given retail sales. There hasn't been much CapEx and capacity utilization has been holding constant at a pretty high level. So at some point, this needs to turn, but I think the first quarter kind of surprised us. And my best guess was that was on the back of just how liquid the public markets were.

這是各種各樣的事情。我認為第一季的資本市場活動和投資等級債務向系統注入了大量現金，你看到可能進入該市場的公司償還了我們的左輪手槍。所以這對它來說是一種近期影響。正如我們所看到的，沒有任何實際的庫存增加，考慮到零售銷售，我預計會發生這種情況。資本支出不多，產能利用率一直維持在相當高的水準。因此，在某些時候，這種情況需要轉變，但我認為第一季讓我們感到驚訝。我最好的猜測是，這是基於公開市場的流動性。

Our next questions come from the line of John Pancari with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

John, on the expense front, it looks like within expenses, they came in a bit better than expected maybe on the comp side and certain other areas. And you cited the solid expense management and your cost save efforts. Is there -- would you say that the trends are coming in perhaps a bit better than you had forecasted as you look at your expense phase? And is there any thought process that potentially your full year '24 outlook could prove conservative in terms of your stable expectations?

約翰，在費用方面，看起來在費用範圍內，他們的表現比預期的要好一些，也許在薪酬方面和某些其他領域。您還提到了可靠的費用管理和節省成本的努力。您是否會說，在審視您的支出階段時，趨勢可能比您預測的要好一些？是否有任何思考過程表明您的 24 年全年展望可能會證明您的穩定預期是保守的？

John, this is Rob. So I'd say for the full year, we're still planning and guiding towards stable. In the first quarter, you're right, we're off to a good start in terms of realizing the expense actions that we took last year and the CIP program that we have this year. But it's a little early in the year to roll that all forward. And like I said, we're off to a good start, and we're well positioned for stable.

約翰，這是羅布。所以我想說，對於全年來說，我們仍在規劃和指導以實現穩定。在第一季度，你是對的，我們在實現去年採取的費用行動和今年的 CIP 計劃方面有了一個良好的開端。但現在推進這一切還為時過早。就像我說的，我們有了一個好的開端，並且我們已經做好了穩定的準備。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just separately, on the credit side, you could see the commercial real estate stress that you mentioned and you prudently added to the office reserve in the quarter, but relatively stable or down a little bit in terms of your firm-wide reserve. Are you seeing -- could you maybe talk about the progression in credit and other areas? Are you seeing any mounting stress at all in C&I that could keep you -- potentially keep the reserve currently stable? Or could you continue to from a firm-wide perspective [bleed] the reserve here.

好的。這很有幫助。然後，在信貸方面，您可以看到您提到的商業房地產壓力，並且您在本季度謹慎地增加了辦公室儲備，但就整個公司的儲備而言，相對穩定或略有下降。您是否可以談談信貸和其他領域的進展？您是否看到工商業領域有任何日益增加的壓力可以讓您保持儲備目前的穩定？或者你可以繼續從公司範圍的角度來看這裡的儲備金。

Bleed is a bad word. The credit action at the moment is in the real estate book and specifically inside of office, consumer at the margin a little bit worse. But there isn't anything systematic going on in C&I that would cause us to have any different expectations of what we see now and we're reserved for the moment based on our economic forecast.

流血是一個不好的字。目前的信貸行動是在房地產方面，特別是在辦公室內部，消費者的邊際狀況稍差一些。但工商業領域並沒有發生任何系統性的事情，不會導致我們對現在所看到的情況產生任何不同的預期，我們根據我們的經濟預測暫時保留。

Yes, the pressure is in the CRE book, specifically the office book.

是的，壓力來自 CRE 書籍，特別是辦公書籍。

Okay. And then just related to that, are you seeing migration in the office book that is surprising given your forecast (inaudible) added notably to the office reserve? Is there anything there that surprised you in terms of your reappraisals or your work on that front?

好的。與此相關的是，考慮到您的預測（聽不清楚）顯著增加了辦公室儲備，您是否看到辦公簿中的遷移令人驚訝？就您的重新評估或這方面的工作而言，有什麼事情讓您感到驚訝嗎？

No surprises [:Yes, everything is progressing as we expected. We started with the criticized. The NPLs are up a little bit, but everything is consistent with what we've been seeing.

不出意外[：是的，一切都在按照我們的預期進行。我們從批評者開始。不良貸款略有上升，但一切都與我們所看到的一致。

Our next questions come from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

Looking at Slide 6 here where you show the runoff of the fixed rate securities and swaps. Any way to size the revenue pickup from this, either anchoring to the forward curve or current rates. You put out some crude analysis that showed about a $2 billion impact and just said it was linear, so half this year, half next. But obviously, [it's rough] cut at it. So I don't know if you have any comments on that or frame it on using your estimates.

請看此處的投影片 6，其中顯示了固定利率證券和掉期的徑流。可以透過任何方式來確定由此帶來的收入成長，無論是錨定遠期曲線還是當前利率。你做了一些粗略的分析，顯示了大約 20 億美元的影響，只是說它是線性的，所以今年一半，明年一半。但顯然，[這很粗糙]。所以我不知道您對此有何評論或根據您的估計進行框架。

No, I would say -- so we laid it out in the slides in terms of what we see in terms of runoff. And obviously, the projected AOCI burned as it relates to capital. But all of that's in our guide. So in terms of what our expectations are in terms of that behavior, that's in our full year NII guide, which is down 4% to 5%. But if I have to make the point in terms of what we were saying earlier, the go forward, the biggest variable is the repricing of our [fixed rate] assets and in this case, securities.

不，我想說 - 所以我們根據我們在徑流方面看到的情況在幻燈片中列出了它。顯然，預計的 AOCI 因與資本相關而被燒毀。但所有這些都在我們的指南中。因此，就我們對這種行為的期望而言，這是我們全年 NII 指南中的內容，該指南下降了 4% 至 5%。但如果我必須按照我們之前所說的方式闡明這一點，那麼未來最大的變數是我們的[固定利率]資產（在本例中為證券）的重新定價。

Matt, I think what everybody's struggling with here is this notion of what's the Fed going to do in the next period of time. Is it [new cuts] or no cuts or [3 cuts] when we started out with [6 cuts].

馬特，我認為每個人都在糾結的是聯準會在接下來的一段時間內將採取什麼行動。當我們開始[6次剪輯]時，是[新剪輯]還是沒有剪輯還是[3次剪輯]。

We didn't.

我們沒有。

Yes, we did not, but the market did. We know based on forward curve, the repricing of our fixed rate assets, the amount of money, incremental money we will earn from that has increased because term rates have increased. At the same time, the assumption that the Fed will maintain rates here longer causes us to pause on what happens to deposit pricing through time, right? So there's a trade-off. Higher rates in (inaudible) obviously helped us on our fixed rate assets. Deposit repricing continue on if the Fed holds longer a much slower pace than it's been in the past, but I think it's -- it would be a bit of a heroic assumption for anybody to say that deposit costs won't continue to creep up in the face of a steady fed. [:So that's the trade-off in the near term. Longer term, the repricing of the fixed rate assets dwarfs the repricing of deposits. And that's kind of why we see look in the second quarter, we trough and then we pick up from there.

是的，我們沒有，但市場做到了。我們知道，根據遠期曲線，我們的固定利率資產的重新定價、金額、我們將從中賺取的增量資金都增加了，因為期限利率增加了。與此同時，聯準會將維持利率更長的假設讓我們停下來思考存款定價隨著時間的推移會發生什麼，對嗎？所以需要權衡。 （聽不清楚）較高的利率顯然對我們的固定利率資產有幫助。如果聯準會保持比過去慢得多的速度，存款重新定價將繼續下去，但我認為，對於任何人來說，存款成本不會繼續攀升，這都有點英雄主義的假設。 。 [：這就是近期的權衡。從長遠來看，固定利率資產的重新定價使存款的重新定價相形見絀。這就是為什麼我們看到第二季的情況，我們經歷了低谷，然後又從那裡開始復甦。

And then to ['25].

然後到['25]。

Yes.

是的。

That makes sense. And then sorry if I missed it earlier, but did you reiterate your view that 2025 net interest income would be record level? And if you did, what would derail that? If the higher for longest doesn't sound like that will change it. Is there still a loan growth component or if rates go down too much? Just what would be the risk of achieving that if you still have that view?

這就說得通了。如果我之前錯過了，抱歉，但您是否重申了您的觀點，即 2025 年淨利息收入將創歷史新高？如果你這樣做了，什麼會破壞它？如果最長的更高聽起來不像那會改變它。是否仍有貸款成長成分，或者利率是否下降太多？如果你仍然持有這種觀點，那麼實現這目標的風險是什麼？

I mean the biggest risk would be a massive curve inversion, such that we were repricing fixed rate securities at lower yields...

我的意思是，最大的風險將是大規模的曲線倒掛，以至於我們以較低的收益率重新定價固定利率證券...

Than they are today. .

比他們今天還多。 。

Well, I mean, what they were 3 months ago.

嗯，我的意思是，三個月前的情況。

No. We had -- our original assumptions in that forecast yields were [100] lower than they are right now. If they were to fall well below that, we would be at risk at that record number, although it's still a high number.

不。如果它們遠低於這個數字，我們將面臨創紀錄數字的風險，儘管它仍然是一個很高的數字。

And Matt, it's Rob. I'll take the opportunity to reiterate our view that 2025 will be a record NII.

馬特，是羅布。我將藉此機會重申我們的觀點，即 2025 年 NII 將創歷史新高。

Our next questions come from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Gerard Cassidy。

you talked about the utilization of the C&I loans that it was lower in the first quarter and normally it kind of ticks up a bit. A question on that. Is it -- do you think your customers are just uncertain about their outlook, which is kind of help them back from drawing down on lines of credit? Or do you think that they're having access to other lenders, meaning private credit market or the public markets that has taken away opportunities for banks to have these companies increase those lines of utilization?

您談到第一季工商業貸款的利用率較低，通常會上升。對此有一個疑問。您是否認為您的客戶只是對他們的前景不確定，這在某種程度上幫助他們擺脫了信用額度的減少？或者您認為他們可以接觸其他貸方，這意味著私人信貸市場或公共市場剝奪了銀行讓這些公司增加利用率的機會？

Yes.

是的。

I think it's both

我認為兩者都是

The capital markets activity in the first quarter, we're not -- the private credit [side on leveraged ] finance doesn't really impact us. But the public markets were wide open. By the way, our fees were up in that space for serving client that way. But naturally at the margin that causes our utilization to go down. The other issue, you can't ignore, right? We've seen capital spend and inventory build be next to nothing, even though capacity utilization is high. Retail sales are high.

第一季的資本市場活動，我們沒有－私人信貸[槓桿]融資並沒有真正影響我們。但公開市場是敞開的。順便說一句，我們以這種方式為客戶提供服務的費用增加了。但自然會導致我們的利用率下降。還有一個問題，你不能忽視，對吧？我們發現，儘管產能利用率很高，但資本支出和庫存建設幾乎為零。零售額很高。

And at some point, that's got to give. But I do think there continues to be hesitancy on manufacturers in particular just in the face of this economy. And I think that's part of it.

在某些時候，這必須給予。但我確實認為製造商仍然猶豫不決，尤其是面對當前的經濟狀況。我認為這就是其中的一部分。

I'm looking for a stability factor which will help.

我正在尋找一個有幫助的穩定因素。

Very good. And then I know, Rob, I think you touched on in an answer to your question about the commercial real estate outlook office in particular. And you guys everything appears to be going in your expectations what kind of pricing declines -- in appraisals that have come up and where you've had to reappraise certain properties, are you seeing price declines 10%, 15%, 20% on those appraisals or more? Any color there?

非常好。然後我知道，羅布，我認為您在回答有關商業房地產展望辦公室的問題時特別提到了這一點。你們，一切似乎都在你們的預期中，價格下降了多少——在已經出現的評估中，以及你們必須重新評估某些房產的地方，你們是否看到這些房產的價格下降了10%、15% 、20%評價還是更多？那裡有什麼顏色嗎？

I mean, much higher than that.

我的意思是，比這個高得多。

Variance.

方差。

The variance is all over the place. But as a practical matter, if we were underwritten at -- start at $0.55 on whatever the appraised value was at that point in time, a big chunk of the book right now is effectively at par. When we look at resolutions that we've gone through, we've had everything from we get out hold to we lose $0.75 on the dollar on a given loan.

差異無所不在。但作為一個實際問題，如果我們以 0.55 美元的起價承保，無論當時的評估價值是多少，那麼現在這本書的很大一部分實際上是平價的。當我們查看我們已經通過的決議時，我們已經經歷過從停止持有到每筆貸款損失 0.75 美元的一切。

That's the variance.

這就是差異。

So it's building specific, it's market-specific, that's driving this, but loss rates are a lot higher. If you looked at office and said, "Hey, how much of value has fallen?" It's a lot higher than 15%. Personally across the space. In my view, it's closer to 30% or 40% or even higher.

因此，它是針對具體建設、針對特定市場的，這推動了這一點，但損失率要高得多。如果你看著辦公室說：“嘿，價值下降了多少？”比15%高很多。親自穿越空間。在我看來，接近30%或40%甚至更高。

you're thinking ahead in terms of where we're going.

你正在提前考慮我們要去的地方。

Well, it's not showing up in appraisals here. We're just seeing it in actual resolution of properties.

嗯，這裡沒有出現在評估中。我們只是在屬性的實際解析中看到它。

Our next question comes from the line of Dave Rochester with Compass Point.

我們的下一個問題來自 Dave Rochester 和 Compass Point 的線路。

Just back on the NII guide, you mentioned the largest driver of the growth you're looking for in the back half of the year is coming from the repricing. And then you got the loan growth as another factor. Was just wondering what you're assuming for deposit flows within that as well. I would assume that those could be a little bit better just from a seasonal perspective in the back half of the year. And then on the securities rolling off, how much of that liquidity is getting [flowed] back into the securities book? And what kind of yields you're looking at there at this point on purchases?

剛才回到 NII 指南，您提到下半年成長的最大動力來自重新定價。然後你得到了貸款成長作為另一個因素。只是想知道您對其中的存款流量有何假設。我認為，從下半年的季節角度來看，情況可能會好一些。然後，在證券轉存時，有多少流動性會[回流]回到證券帳簿？您目前在購買時看到的收益率是多少？

So I'll let Rob hit deposits in a second. The assumption -- I mean we have rolled off of both fixed rate loans and fixed rate securities. And the yields we assume in our forecast at this point are just forward curve adjusted for whatever the right spread is of the asset we're replacing. So like-for-like.

所以我會讓羅布立即存款。假設——我的意思是我們已經取消了固定利率貸款和固定利率證券。此時我們在預測中假設的殖利率只是根據我們要替換的資產的正確利差進行調整的遠期曲線。如此相似。

Yes. And then just on the deposits, back at the beginning of the year, we expected deposits to decline year-over-year, low single digits. We still expect that, albeit in the first quarter, we did outperform that a bit but our expectations are for slightly lower deposits through the balance of the year.

是的。然後就存款而言，早在今年年初，我們預計存款將同比下降，較低的個位數。我們仍然預計，儘管在第一季度，我們的表現確實略勝一籌，但我們的預期是今年剩餘時間的存款略有下降。

Okay. And then on the loan growth outlook, which you talked about, I guess, on an end-of-period basis last quarter. Does [higher] for longer impact that expectation at all? And what's your outlook for the longer end of the curve through the year?

好的。然後是關於貸款成長前景，我想您是在上個季度的期末基礎上談到的。 [更高]更長的時間會影響這種期望嗎？您對今年曲線較長端的前景有何看法？

No, I don't know that I thought much about how higher for longer impacts loan growth or not. The outlook we have for rates at this point, our official outlook is we have, what we say, 2 cuts starting in July at this point with the curve largely staying where it is. Our forecast whether we're using current forward curve or even when rates were lower, our NII forecast isn't terribly sensitive to what we're assuming at least for this year because the incremental amount we make from higher yields on bonds and loans repricing we're assuming is largely offset on the deposit cost leakage that occurs if the Fed doesn't cut rates. .

不，我不知道我是否考慮過長期較高的水平對貸款成長有何影響。目前我們對利率的展望，我們的官方展望是，我們所說的，從 7 月開始進行兩次降息，曲線基本上保持在原來的位置。我們的預測，無論我們使用當前的遠期曲線，還是即使在利率較低的情況下，我們的NII預測對我們至少今年的假設都不太敏感，因為我們從債券和貸款重新定價的收益率較高中獲得的增量金額我們假設，如果聯準會不降息，存款成本洩漏將在很大程度上被抵銷。 。

So we're not making heroic assumptions on rates. We don't really care where they go in the near term. What we know is once we get through the second quarter here that the repricing of fixed rate assets simply starts to dwarf the potential repricing on deposits independent on where rates are.

因此，我們不會對利率做出大膽的假設。我們並不真正關心他們短期內會去哪裡。我們知道，一旦進入第二季度，固定利率資產的重新定價就開始讓潛在的存款重新定價相形見絀，而與利率水準無關。

Our next questions come from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉 (Ebrahim Poonawala) 的電話。

I guess maybe the tenth question on your loan growth outlook for the back half. I think I guess the macro concern is that higher for longer will eventually tip this economy into a recession. Would love to hear Bill, Rob, your perspective based on what you are hearing from your bankers' clients. If we don't get any rate cuts for the year, based on what you're seeing, like, could we have a blind spot where the economy really kind of tails off where a lot of these things catch up, we enter some version of a [taxation]. How do you handicap that downside risk heading into the back half of the year?

我想第十個問題可能是關於下半年的貸款成長前景。我認為宏觀擔憂是，長期走高最終將使經濟陷入衰退。很想聽聽比爾、羅伯根據您從銀行家客戶那裡聽到的情況的看法。如果我們今年沒有任何降息，根據你所看到的情況，我們是否會出現一個盲點，即經濟確實會放緩，而許多這些事情會迎頭趕上，我們會輸入某個版本的[稅收]。您如何因應下半年的下行風險？

Okay. I think that's a possibility. One of the peculiar things about utilization is when credit conditions tighten, utilization increases. It's actually one of the primary drivers of utilization. So (inaudible) loan growth would increase if you ran because utilization would increase if you ran into that scenario. But I do worry about that. Look, eventually, if the only way to get rid of inflation is to really hurt the economy. I worry less about loan growth and more about long-term credit losses for the whole industry just as right now, everybody is planning for a soft landing.

好的。我認為這是有可能的。利用率的奇特之處之一是當信貸條件收緊時，利用率會增加。它實際上是利用率的主要驅動因素之一。因此，如果您跑步，（聽不清楚）貸款成長將會增加，因為如果您遇到這種情況，利用率就會增加。但我確實擔心這一點。最終，看看擺脫通貨膨脹的唯一方法是否真的損害了經濟。我不太擔心貸款成長，而是更擔心整個行業的長期信貸損失，就像現在每個人都在計劃軟著陸一樣。

And you still think soft landing is [Audio Gap] I wanted to follow up on the (inaudible). One, are you finding any kind of sympathy within the regulatory parities around the case for allowing for larger bank M&A? And is there any possibility that we see deal making pick up ahead of the elections?

你仍然認為軟著陸是[音頻差距]我想跟進（聽不清楚）。第一，您是否發現監理機關對允許更大規模的銀行併購表示同情？我們是否有可能在選舉前看到交易增加？

Sorry. And any possibility of what?

對不起。還有什麼可能性？

Of deal-making picking up ahead of the November elections?

11 月選舉前交易是否會加速？

Look, the letter was self-explanatory, and we've kind of beaten the topic to that. I guess what I would suggest is, I think the banking industry, by and large, is set up to do well over the next 18 months or so, simply through rates normalizing, assuming you didn't have big concentrations to real estate in office. And I think everybody in the near term is focused on that. .

聽著，這封信的意思是不言自明的，我們已經把話題說到這裡了。我想我的建議是，銀行業總體而言將在未來 18 個月左右的時間裡表現良好，只需透過利率正常化，假設你沒有大量集中在辦公室的房地產上。我認為近期每個人都會關注這一點。 。

I think long term, some of the charts we've put in that letter, it's just hard to ignore. You see the 2 largest banks in the country who in the last 4 years grew of size larger than [Truist], U.S. Bank and PNC put together. I don't know what the regulators think or don't think about that. The intent of the letter was to just point out that if what they wrote in the OCC comment letter was to freeze M&A across the country for any bank over $50 billion. I think you can see the outcome that we'll have in this country, which is a massive consolidation with the giant national bank. It's all only pointless.

我認為從長遠來看，我們在那封信中放入的一些圖表很難被忽視。您將看到該國最大的兩家銀行在過去 4 年中的規模增長超過了 [Truist]、合眾銀行和 PNC 銀行的總和。我不知道監理機關是怎麼想的，或是不怎麼想。這封信的目的只是指出，如果他們在 OCC 評論信中所寫的是凍結全國範圍內任何一家價值超過 500 億美元的銀行的併購活動。我想你可以看到我們將在這個國家得到的結果，那就是與巨型國家銀行的大規模合併。這一切都毫無意義。

Got it. And do you see the backdrop conducive for deal making over the coming months, quarters or...? .

知道了。您認為未來幾個月、幾季或…的背景是否有利於達成交易？ 。

at What?

在什麼？

Anything near term.

任何近期的事情。

For us?

為了我們？

Or the industry.

或行業。

No. I think most banks are tend to hang out the next 18 months because their earnings are going to improve and their internal forecasts are going to look good and everything is rosy. .

不會。 。

[Audio Gap]

[音頻間隙]

Utilization rates, assuming we avoid recession for a reacceleration in loan growth, given this environment where Fed funds is running above CPI and the Fed can't cut amid sticky inflation, we spent most of the post-GFC era with Fed funds running below CPI and had mid-single-digit loan growth. But I just love your thoughts on the risk that loan growth may not go up much if the Fed can't cut below CPI. And do you lean more heavily into your fee-based businesses if that happens?

利用率，假設我們避免經濟衰退，貸款成長重新加速，考慮到聯邦基金運作高於消費者物價指數且聯準會無法在黏性通膨中降息的環境，我們在後全球金融危機時代的大部分時間裡聯邦基金運行低於消費者物價指數並實現了中等個位數的貸款成長。但我只是喜歡你的想法，如果聯準會不能將消費者物價指數降至以下水平，貸款成長可能不會大幅上升。如果發生這種情況，您是否會更傾向於收費業務？

I'm not sure Fed funds versus CPI necessarily has much to do with loan growth. I think loan growth ultimately is driven by the economy and the economy has been running hotter than that most people had assumed that it's been running hotter than most people had assumed without big inventory builds. If you look at fourth quarter GDP, there was a drawdown on inventories. Inventories are directly correlated with the utilization of loan growth. And CapEx has been muted. So the economy slows, if the Fed has to slow the economy to a point where it's not a soft landing in order to get inflation under control, that can hurt loan growth. But if the economy is strong, you just saw retail sales, eventually, it's going to translate into in the loan growth (inaudible) whether they're not, there's positive real rates.

我不確定聯邦基金與消費者物價指數之間的關係是否一定與貸款成長有很大關係。我認為貸款成長最終是由經濟推動的，而經濟的運行速度比大多數人想像的要高，在沒有大量庫存增加的情況下，經濟的運行速度比大多數人想像的要高。如果你看一下第四季的 GDP，你會發現庫存減少。庫存與貸款成長的利用率直接相關。而且資本支出已經被抑制。因此，經濟放緩，如果聯準會必須將經濟放緩至不能軟著陸的程度，以控制通膨，這可能會損害貸款成長。但如果經濟強勁，你只會看到零售銷售，最終，它會轉化為貸款成長（聽不清楚），無論是否強勁，實際利率都是正值。

Correlation there, yes.

那裡有相關性，是的。

That's helpful. And then as a follow-up on your comments about the Visa B shares. How should we think about the dollar amount and the use of proceeds?

這很有幫助。然後作為您對 Visa B 股票的評論的後續行動。我們應該如何考慮美元金額和收益的用途？

Well, so yes, as I mentioned in our comments on May 3, we'll have the opportunity to monetize 50% of our holdings, which our holdings are roughly $1.6 billion in unrealized gains. And that will just be capital. And we'll look at how we apply everything in terms of our excess capital, but we'll wait until we get the capital to do that. We'll monetize half of the 1.6.

嗯，是的，正如我在 5 月 3 日的評論中提到的，我們將有機會將我們持有的 50% 貨幣化，我們持有的未實現收益約為 16 億美元。這只是資本。我們將研究如何利用我們的過剩資本來應用一切，但我們會等到我們獲得資本後再這樣做。我們將把 1.6 的一半貨幣化。

Our next questions come from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自肯·烏斯丁 (Ken Usdin) 和傑弗里斯 (Jefferies) 的電話。

Just a follow-up on the fee side. I think when you spoke in January, you talked about expected slowness in capital markets and M&A to begin the year. And then, I think you were thinking about a 20% growth overall. Just wondering just how that's looking in terms of the body language you're getting from those middle market clients in Harris Williams? And then also, if you have any other color on what you think the other drivers of fees are going to be.

只是費用方面的後續行動。我想當你在一月份講話時，你談到了資本市場和年初併購的預期放緩。然後，我認為您正在考慮 20% 的整體成長。只是想知道從哈里斯威廉斯 (Harris Williams) 的中端市場客戶那裡得到的肢體語言來看，這看起來怎麼樣？另外，如果您對其他費用驅動因素有任何其他看法。

I mean, the Harris Williams pipeline at the moment is larger, larger than it's ever been, but it's larger than it was last year. Just their first quarter relative to their fourth quarter [is light ] and that's what drove the quarter-on-quarter change in our total fees.

我的意思是，哈里斯威廉斯的管道目前更大，比以往任何時候都大，但比去年更大。只是他們的第一季相對於第四季來說[很輕]，這就是推動我們總費用季度環比變化的原因。

Yes, we had -- so Ken, to answer your question, we are sticking to the 20% expectation for growth in capital markets year-over-year. Bill's right, first quarter was off elevated fourth quarter levels. But in terms of the comp, last year in the second and third quarter, capital markets was really soft. Harris Williams is really soft and the pipeline suggests we are not going to repeat. That we'll be well above those levels.

是的，我們——所以肯，為了回答你的問題，我們堅持資本市場同比增長 20% 的預期。比爾是對的，第一季的水平低於第四季度的高水準。但從比較來看，去年第二季和第三季度，資本市場確實疲軟。哈里斯威廉斯真的很軟，管道表明我們不會重複。我們將遠高於這些水平。

Okay. Got it. All right. And last one, just on the asset and wealth side, I think you've had some pretty good flows and things like that first quarter starting point was more of the markets I know you put a lot of effort into that business. Any sense of just change in terms of like asset flows and new business wins and incremental potential revenue growth out of that business specifically?

好的。知道了。好的。最後一個，就資產和財富方面而言，我認為你們已經有了一些相當好的流量，比如第一季的起點更多的是我知道你們在該業務上投入了大量精力的市場。在資產流動、新業務獲勝以及該業務的增量潛在收入成長等方面，有什麼公正的變化嗎？

We have had success over the last year kind of repositioning who and what we are in the market, bringing in new assets to accelerate that to a level where it becomes a meaningful part of our company, I think, is a bit of a challenge. It's a service to our clients, and we're good at it. But the trends are going the right way.

去年，我們成功地重新定位了我們在市場上的角色和產品，引入新資產以加速這一目標，使其成為我們公司有意義的一部分，我認為這是一個挑戰。這是為我們的客戶提供的服務，我們很擅長。但趨勢正在朝著正確的方向發展。

Yes. I would just add to that, Ken. Obviously, the business is doing well with the equity markets supporting that. The growth opportunity is in the new BBVA markets in the Southwest, where you'll recall BBVA really didn't have a wealth management business. So we're de novo, so to speak, in all those markets. But we're up and running with teams, inflows, asset inflows are occurring. And long term, that's where the incremental growth will come from.

是的。我想補充一點，肯恩。顯然，在股市的支持下，該業務表現良好。成長機會在於西南地區的新 BBVA 市場，您會記得 BBVA 在那裡確實沒有財富管理業務。所以可以說，我們在所有這些市場都是從頭開始的。但我們正在與團隊一起運行，資金流入、資產流入正在發生。從長遠來看，這就是增量成長的來源。

And one more to follow up. Is that an area that you could add to inorganically over time? I know it's tough just because of multiples and whatnot, but you've done it organically, as you just said.

還有一個要跟進。隨著時間的推移，這是一個你可以無機地添加的領域嗎？我知道這很困難，只是因為倍數之類的原因，但正如你剛才所說，你已經有機地做到了這一點。

That's a tough business, in my view, to add to inorganically. Cultural difference is the way you go to market, the outright price and the goodwill associated with the return on equity that comes with that makes it all really difficult to do. And at least historically, the opportunity to grow organically is much stronger than going out and trying to add to it through purchase.

在我看來，這是一項很難透過無機方式進行補充的業務。文化差異是你進入市場的方式、直接價格以及隨之而來的股本回報率相關的商譽，這使得這一切變得非常困難。至少從歷史上看，有機成長的機會比走出去並試圖透過購買來增加成長的機會要強得多。

(Operator Instructions) Our next questions come from the line of Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克‧梅奧（Mike Mayo）。

It looks like you were leaning into the expense control this quarter, but I'm just trying to figure out ahead. So you mentioned [$750 million] of cost savings for this year. how much of that was in the first quarter. But you also mentioned $1 billion of extra spending for branches, how much of that was in the first quarter? And how should we think about those offsets. And I know it's a tough fight to get positive leverage this year. Do you feel better, worse, the same as you did 3 months ago?

看來您本季傾向於控制費用，但我只是想提前弄清楚。所以您提到今年可以節省[7.5 億美元]的成本。其中有多少是在第一季。但您也提到了10億美元的分行額外支出，其中第一季有多少？我們應該如何考慮這些抵消。我知道今年要獲得正面的影響力是一場艱苦的戰鬥。與 3 個月前相比，您感覺好轉、變差了嗎？

Well, I'll chunk that down. So we'll start with the positive operating leverage for the full year. We still think that's pretty tough, not including any Visa gains, of course, simply because of the NII and the rate issues and those run rates. We do feel good about our expenses. We've projected and guided to being stable year-over-year. We're off to a good start in the first quarter, a little bit ahead of where we expected to be, but we still got a long way to go. So all of the items that you talked about, they're in there, but the guidance is stable over year-over-year, which is important to us.

好吧，我會把它分塊。因此，我們將從全年的積極營運槓桿開始。我們仍然認為這相當困難，當然不包括 Visa 的任何收益，這僅僅是因為 NII 和費率問題以及運行費率。我們確實對我們的開支感到滿意。我們預計並指導其與去年同期保持穩定。我們在第一季取得了良好的開局，比我們預期的要領先一些，但我們還有很長的路要走。因此，您談到的所有項目都在那裡，但指導意見逐年穩定，這對我們很重要。

Okay. I'll shift gears back though. You were talking about commercial real estate, look, you reserved 10% for Office. And you said the value of the underlying properties are probably down 30% to 40% or more. So I guess that is reflected in your reserving, which I think is more than the average bank. Do you see a difference by -- and I know it changes by region and subregion and property and type and all that. But do you see a difference by region, whether it's the big cities. What gives a little sense of that variance because it's all over the place. So you just still had a few data points around that, that would be great.

好的。不過我會換回來。你說的是商業房地產，你看，你預留了10%給Office。你說基礎資產的價值可能會下降 30% 到 40% 甚至更多。所以我想這反映在你的準備金上，我認為這比一般銀行要多。你是否看到了差異——我知道它會因地區和次區域、財產和類型等等而變化。但你是否發現地區之間有差異，無論是大城市。是什麼讓人感覺到這種差異，因為它無所不在。所以你仍然有一些數據點，那就太好了。

Yes. Well, no surprise, Parts of California are the worst. But it really comes down to the building in the market. I mean you could have a building that's in the right place in Pittsburgh, and it's still an absolutely fine and you could have a building that's in the wrong place in Pittsburgh, and it's literally worth 0. And that's the market we're playing with right now. Now inside of that whole thing, we do feel that we've been ahead of this game that were reserved correctly that we are conservatively taking marks and we have the opportunity to do so. But it's -- this is going to play out over time, and your eyes aren't lying to you when you look out and see vacancies. .

是的。嗯，毫不奇怪，加州的部分地區是最糟糕的。但這實際上取決於市場上的建築。我的意思是，你可以在匹茲堡的正確位置擁有一棟建築，但它仍然絕對沒問題；你也可以在匹茲堡的錯誤位置擁有一棟建築，它的價值實際上為0。的市場現在。現在，在整個事情中，我們確實覺得我們已經領先於這場比賽，我們保守地採取了正確的保留方式，並且我們有機會這樣做。但這會隨著時間的推移而發揮作用，當你向外看並看到空缺時，你的眼睛不會騙你。 。

And I think ourselves and the large banks have been pretty open about it's going to be an issue. It's not a massive book of business for us. I'm not particularly worried about it. We're well reserved. But it's going to roll through the country and impact some of the smaller banks. I think in a way that is probably larger than people's[:.

我認為我們自己和大型銀行對於這將是一個問題持相當開放的態度。對我們來說，這並不是一本厚重的商業書。我並不特別擔心。我們預留得很好。但它將席捲全國並影響一些規模較小的銀行。我認為在某種程度上可能比人們的[:.

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

And just 1 short follow-up on that one. The longer rates stay higher, do you expect this to bleed over from office to other areas of commercial real estate?

對此只有 1 個簡短的跟進。利率維持較高水準的時間越長，您是否預期這種情況會從辦公大樓蔓延到商業房地產的其他領域？

With the margin, yes, but it is kind of just at the margin. So you see debt service coverage ratios decline as interest costs take more the cash flow out in multifamily, for example, rents aren't increasing at the pace they once were. The massive difference, though, Mike, is that all other types or virtually all other types of real estate are cash flowing. So there's a value to them, right? They just might not cash flow to support the original amount of debt they had. The problem you have in office is, in many instances, there's no cash flow at all. It's really a unique animal at the moment. .

是的，有邊際，但也只是在邊際。因此，您會看到償債覆蓋率下降，因為利息成本消耗了多戶家庭的更多現金流，例如，租金沒有像以前那樣增長。然而，麥克，最大的區別在於所有其他類型或幾乎所有其他類型的房地產都是現金流的。所以他們有價值，對嗎？他們可能只是沒有現金流來支持他們原來的債務金額。在很多情況下，你在辦公室遇到的問題是根本沒有現金流。目前它確實是一種獨特的動物。 。

Our next questions come from the line of John McDonald with Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自自治研究組織的約翰‧麥克唐納 (John McDonald)。

Just wanted to just touch base on how you're thinking about capital build. Obviously, you're building organically. You've got some Visa that will add 14, 15 bps next quarter, I guess ,are you just kind of thinking of gradually kind of building from this 10% reported and the 8.3% fully loaded to get to 9 or 10 or so over the next year, do a little bit of buybacks? Just kind of what's the plan there?

只是想談談您對資本建設的看法。顯然，您正在有機地建造。我猜你有一些 Visa 會在下個季度增加 14、15 個基點，你是否正在考慮從報告的 10% 和滿載的 8.3% 逐漸增加到 9 或 10 左右明年，做一點回購嗎？那裡有什麼計劃嗎？

Well, you phrased the question almost exactly correctly. .

嗯，你提出的問題幾乎完全正確。 。

Congratulations.

恭喜。

You think about it inside, we have always moving pieces. So inside of the NPR on Basel III end game. The one thing, it's all up in the year -- but one thing that you got to believe is going to AOCI. And so if that's the case, then our printed [83] number is kind of a real number, and that would be otherwise too low for us if we want to build that through time. Some of that will happen just from the rundown of the book and some of that will happen through us building capital. The ultimate, where should we be Basel III end game, everything settled out number, I don't know that we've necessarily set yet other than it's higher than where we sit today on the [A3]

你內心想一想，我們總是有移動的部分。因此，NPR 報導了巴塞爾協議 III 的最終結果。有一件事，一切都在這一年裡完成——但你必須相信的一件事是 AOCI。因此，如果是這樣的話，那麼我們印製的 [83] 數字就是一個實數，如果我們想隨著時間的推移構建這個數字，那麼這個數字對我們來說就太低了。其中一些將在本書的概要中發生，而另一些將透過我們建立資本而發生。最終，我們應該在巴塞爾協議 III 中結束遊戲，一切都已確定，我不知道我們是否已經確定了，除了它比我們今天坐在 [A3] 上的位置更高

That's fair. That's fair. And we've got capital flexibility, as you know, John, and that's where you want to be right now with the fluidity of everything. .

這還算公平。這還算公平。如你所知，約翰，我們擁有資本彈性，這就是你現在想要的，一切都具有流動性。 。

And so for the near term, Rob, is this kind of the ballpark $100 million a little bit north of that? Is that kind of the ballpark until you get a little more clarity?

Rob，從短期來看，這個 1 億美元的預算是否有點超出這個數字？在你看得更清楚之前，這就是大概的情況嗎？

Yes, that's right. .

恩，那就對了。 。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Bryan Gill for closing comments.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題。我現在想把發言權交還給布萊恩·吉爾（Bryan Gill），請他發表結束語。

Well, thank you all for joining the PNC call this morning. And if you have any follow-up questions, please feel free to reach out to the IR team.

好的，謝謝大家參加今天早上的 PNC 電話會議。如果您有任何後續問題，請隨時聯絡 IR 團隊。

Take care.

小心。

Sorry about that. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your

對於那個很抱歉。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。謝謝你的