PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Well, good morning, and welcome to today's conference call for the PNC Financial Services Group. I am Bryan Gill, the Director of Investor Relations for PNC and participating on this call are PNC's Chairman, President and CEO, Bill Demchak; and Rob Reilly, Executive Vice President and CFO. Today's presentation contains forward-looking information. Cautionary statements about this information as well as reconciliations of non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release materials as well as our SEC filings and other investor materials. These are all available on our corporate website, pnc.com, under Investor Relations. These statements speak only as of October 13, 2023, and PNC undertakes no obligation to update them. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bill.

早安，歡迎參加今天的 PNC 金融服務集團電話會議。我是 PNC 投資者關係總監 Bryan Gill，參加本次電話會議的有 PNC 董事長、總裁兼執行長 Bill Demchak；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Rob Reilly。今天的演示包含前瞻性資訊。有關此資訊的警告性聲明以及非公認會計原則措施的調節包含在今天的收益發布資料以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件和其他投資者資料中。這些都可以在我們公司網站 pnc.com 的「投資者關係」下找到。這些聲明僅截至 2023 年 10 月 13 日，PNC 不承擔更新義務。現在我想把電話轉給比爾。

Thank you, Bryan. And good morning, everyone. As you can see on the slide, we delivered strong results in the third quarter, generating $1.6 billion in net income or $3.60 in diluted earnings per share. Rob is going to take you through the numbers in a moment, but I'd like to touch on a few highlights. First, in the challenging operating environment, we generated 3 points of positive operating leverage through disciplined expense management.

謝謝你，布萊恩。大家早安。正如您在幻燈片中看到的，我們在第三季度取得了強勁的業績，淨利潤為 16 億美元，攤薄後每股收益為 3.60 美元。羅布稍後將向您介紹這些數字，但我想談談一些要點。首先，在充滿挑戰的經營環境中，我們透過嚴格的費用管理產生了 3 個百分點的積極經營槓桿。

Our credit quality remained strong during the quarter, reflecting our thoughtful approach to managing risk, customer selection and long-term relationship development, all of which have historically served us well in challenging economic cycles. Next, we strengthened our capital and liquidity positions even further during the quarter. While we continue to monitor discussions regarding regulatory changes in these areas based on our current estimates, we are well positioned to meet the proposed requirements without meaningful changes to how we operate.

本季我們的信用品質仍然強勁，反映出我們在管理風險、客戶選擇和長期關係發展方面採取的深思熟慮的方法，所有這些歷來都在充滿挑戰的經濟週期中為我們提供了良好的服務。接下來，我們在本季進一步加強了資本和流動性部位。雖然我們根據目前的估計繼續關注有關這些領域監管變化的討論，但我們完全有能力滿足擬議的要求，而無需對我們的運作方式進行有意義的改變。

We continue to execute on our key strategic priorities, including our expansion market efforts and upgrading our digital capabilities and we leveraged our strong balance sheet to take advantage of opportunities such as the signature bank loans that we recently acquired. Finally, we are focused on expense management, particularly in the current environment and have taken actions to maintain disciplined expense control. We increased our continuous improvement goal last quarter from $400 million to $450 million, and we are on track to achieve that goal in 2023. Looking ahead, we expect to have CIP savings within a similar range for 2024. And as a reminder, we used savings from this program to fund investments in key growth markets and technology.

我們繼續執行我們的關鍵策略重點，包括擴大市場努力和升級我們的數位能力，並利用我們強大的資產負債表來利用我們最近獲得的簽署銀行貸款等機會。最後，我們專注於費用管理，特別是在當前環境下，並採取行動維持嚴格的費用控制。上季我們將持續改善目標從 4 億美元提高到 4.5 億美元，我們預計在 2023 年實現這一目標。展望未來，我們預計 2024 年 CIP 節省量將在類似範圍內。提醒一下，我們使用該計劃節省的資金用於資助關鍵成長市場和技術的投資。

In addition, earlier this month, we began executing on staff reductions, which will reduce our 2024 expenses by $325 million and will fall to the bottom line. All told, we are implementing more than $725 million of expense management actions that will have impact on 2024. While decisions involving personnel are never easy, we believe they will help us more effectively and efficiently deliver for our customers and our stakeholders, and we'll continue to be diligent in our expense management going forward. And with that, I'll turn it over to Rob.

此外，本月早些時候，我們開始執行裁員，這將使我們2024年的開支減少3.25億美元，並降至盈虧底線。總而言之，我們正在實施超過7.25 億美元的費用管理行動，這些行動將對2024 年產生影響。雖然涉及人員的決策絕非易事，但我們相信它們將幫助我們更有效、更有效率地為客戶和利益相關者提供服務，而且我們」今後我們將繼續努力進行費用管理。有了這個，我會把它交給羅布。

Thanks, Bill. And good morning, everyone. Our balance sheet is on Slide 3 and is presented on an average basis and comparing to the second quarter. Loans were down 2% and averaged $320 billion. Investment securities declined $1 billion or 1%. Cash balances at the Federal Reserve increased $7 billion to $38 billion. Deposits of $423 billion declined $3 billion or 1%. Borrowed funds increased $2 billion primarily due to senior debt issuances near the end of the second quarter.

謝謝，比爾。大家早安。我們的資產負債表在投影片 3 上，以平均方式呈現並與第二季進行比較。貸款下降 2%，平均為 3,200 億美元。投資證券下跌 10 億美元，或 1%。聯準會現金餘額增加 70 億美元，達到 380 億美元。 4,230 億美元的存款減少了 30 億美元，即 1%。借入資金增加 20 億美元，主要是由於第二季末附近的優先債務發行。

At quarter end, AOCI was a negative $10.3 billion compared to a negative $9.5 billion at June 30, reflecting higher interest rates. However, tangible book value increased to $78.16 per common share as retained earnings growth exceeded the negative impact of AOCI. Common dividends in the quarter totaled approximately $600 million. And we remain well capitalized with an estimated CET1 ratio of 9.8% as of September 30, 2023, which increased 30 basis points linked quarter.

截至季末，AOCI 為負 103 億美元，而 6 月 30 日為負 95 億美元，反映出利率上升。然而，由於留存收益成長超過了 AOCI 的負面影響，有形帳面價值增至每股普通股 78.16 美元。該季度的普通股股息總計約為 6 億美元。截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日，我們的資本充足，預計 CET1 比率為 9.8%，季增 30 個基點。

Slide 4 shows our loans in more detail. Third quarter loans averaged $320 billion and increased $6.5 billion or 2% compared to the same period a year ago, reflecting growth in both commercial and consumer loans.

幻燈片 4 更詳細地展示了我們的貸款。第三季貸款平均為 3,200 億美元，與去年同期相比增加 65 億美元，即 2%，反映出商業和消費貸款的成長。

Compared to the second quarter, average loan balances declined 2% as growth in consumer was more than offset by a decline in commercial. Consumer loans grew approximately $500 million reflecting higher residential mortgage and credit card balances. Commercial loans averaged $218 billion, a decline of $5.5 billion, driven by lower utilization as well as paydowns outpacing new production.

與第二季相比，平均貸款餘額下降了 2%，因為消費者的成長被商業貸款的下降所抵消。消費貸款成長約 5 億美元，反映出住宅抵押貸款和信用卡餘額增加。商業貸款平均為 2,180 億美元，減少了 55 億美元，因為利用率下降以及還款速度超過了新產量。

Loan yields increased 18 basis points to 5.75% in the third quarter, predominantly driven by the higher rate environment.

第三季貸款收益率上升 18 個基點至 5.75%，主要是受利率上升環境的推動。

Slide 5 covers our deposits in more detail. Average deposits decreased $3 billion or 1% due to a decline in consumer deposits that was somewhat offset by a growth in commercial deposits. In regard to mix, consolidated noninterest-bearing deposits were 26% in the third quarter, down slightly from 27% from the second quarter and consistent with our expectations. And we still expect the noninterest-bearing portion of our deposits to stabilize in the mid-20% range.

幻燈片 5 更詳細地介紹了我們的存款。由於消費者存款下降，平均存款減少 30 億美元，即 1%，但商業存款成長在一定程度上抵消了這一下降。從結構來看，第三季綜合無息存款率為 26%，較第二季的 27%略有下降，符合我們的預期。我們仍預期存款的無息部分將穩定在 20% 左右的範圍內。

Commercial noninterest-bearing deposits represented 42% of total commercial deposits in the third quarter compared to 45% in the second quarter. And our consumer deposit noninterest-bearing mix remained stable at 10%. Our rate paid on interest-bearing deposits increased to 2.26% during the third quarter, up from 1.96% in the prior quarter. And as of September 30, our cumulative deposit beta was 41%, which was slightly better than our July expectation.

第三季商業無息存款佔商業存款總額的42%，而第二季為45%。我們的無息消費存款結構穩定在10%。第三季我們的計息存款利率從上一季的 1.96% 上升至 2.26%。截至 9 月 30 日，我們的累計存款貝塔率為 41%，略優於我們 7 月的預期。

Slide 6 details our investment security and swap portfolios. Average investment securities of $140 billion decreased $1 billion or 1% and as curtailed purchase activity was more than offset by portfolio paydowns and maturities. The securities portfolio yield increased 5 basis points to 2.57%, reflecting new purchase yields of 5.5% and the runoff of lower-yielding securities. As of September 30, the duration of investment securities portfolio was 4.2 years.

投影片 6 詳細介紹了我們的投資安全和掉期投資組合。平均 1,400 億美元的投資證券減少了 10 億美元或 1%，因為購買活動的減少被投資組合的償還和到期所抵消。證券投資組合收益率上升 5 個基點至 2.57%，反映出 5.5% 的新購買收益率以及低收益證券的退出。截至9月30日，投資證券組合的久期為4.2年。

Our received fixed swaps point into the commercial loan book totaled $35 billion on September 30. The weighted average received fixed rate of our swap portfolio increased 34 basis points to 2.07% and the duration of the portfolio was 2.4 years as of September 30. Accumulated other comprehensive loss increased by approximately $800 million in the third quarter as a negative impact of higher rates more than offset paydowns and maturities during the quarter.

截至9 月30 日，我們在商業貸款帳簿中收到的固定掉期點總額為350 億美元。截至9 月30 日，我們掉期投資組合的加權平均固定利率增加了34 個基點，達到2.07% ，投資組合的久期為2.4 年。第三季綜合虧損增加了約 8 億美元，原因是利率上升的負面影響超過了本季的還款和到期日。

Importantly, as lower rate securities and swaps roll off, we expect our securities yield to continue to increase, resulting in a meaningful improvement to tangible book value from AOCI accretion.

重要的是，隨著利率較低的證券和掉期的推出，我們預計我們的證券收益率將繼續增加，從而使 AOCI 的增加帶來有形帳面價值的顯著改善。

Turning to the income statement on Slide 7. For the first 9 months of 2023, revenue grew 5% compared to the same period a year ago, reflecting higher interest rates and business growth. Noninterest expense grew 2% and was well controlled despite a higher FDIC assessment rate and inflationary pressures. As a result, we generated 3% positive operating leverage and PPNR grew 9%.

轉向投影片 7 上的損益表。2023 年前 9 個月，營收與去年同期相比成長了 5%，反映出更高的利率和業務成長。儘管 FDIC 評估率較高且通膨壓力較高，但非利息支出增加了 2%，且得到良好控制。結果，我們產生了 3% 的正向營運槓桿，PPNR 成長了 9%。

For the third quarter, net income was $1.6 billion or $3.60 per share. Total revenue of $5.2 billion decreased $60 million or 1% compared to the second quarter of 2023. Net interest income declined $92 million or 3%, and our net interest margin was 2.71%, a decline of 8 basis points. Noninterest income increased $32 million or 2% as higher fee income was partially offset by lower other noninterest income. Third quarter expenses decreased $127 million or 4% linked quarter. Provision was $129 million in the third quarter and our effective tax rate was 15.5%, which included a favorable impact of certain tax matters in the third quarter. For the full year, we now expect our tax rate to be approximately 16.5%.

第三季淨利為 16 億美元，即每股 3.60 美元。總收入為 52 億美元，較 2023 年第二季減少 6,000 萬美元，或 1%。淨利息收入減少 9,200 萬美元，即 3%，淨利差為 2.71%，下降 8 個基點。非利息收入增加了 3,200 萬美元，即 2%，因為較高的費用收入被其他非利息收入的減少部分抵消。第三季費用減少 1.27 億美元，季減 4%。第三季撥備金額為 1.29 億美元，有效稅率為 15.5%，其中包括第三季某些稅務事項的有利影響。我們現在預計全年的稅率約為 16.5%。

Turning to Slide 8. We highlight our revenue trends. Third quarter revenue was down $60 million or 1% compared with the second quarter. Net interest income of $3.4 billion decreased $92 million or 3% as higher yields on interest-earning assets were more than offset by increased funding costs. Fee income was $1.7 billion and increased $67 million or 4% linked quarter.

轉向幻燈片 8。我們重點介紹我們的收入趨勢。第三季營收較第二季下降 6,000 萬美元，或 1%。淨利息收入 34 億美元減少了 9,200 萬美元，即 3%，因為生息資產收益率的上升被融資成本的增加所抵消。費用收入為 17 億美元，季增 6,700 萬美元，即 4%。

The primary driver of the increase in fee income was residential and commercial mortgage revenue, which was up $103 million, the majority of which were $97 million was related to an increase in the valuation of net mortgage servicing rights. Partially offsetting this, capital markets and advisory revenue decreased $45 million or 21%, driven by lower trading revenue. M&A advisory activity continued to remain softer in the third quarter despite robust pipelines.

費用收入成長的主要驅動力是住宅和商業抵押貸款收入，增加了1.03億美元，其中大部分9,700萬美元與淨抵押貸款服務權估值的增加有關。由於交易收入下降，資本市場和諮詢收入減少了 4,500 萬美元，即 21%，部分抵消了這一影響。儘管管道強勁，但第三季併購諮詢活動仍持續疲軟。

Going forward, we do expect this activity to increase in the fourth quarter, which is included in our guidance that I will cover in a few minutes.

展望未來，我們確實預計這項活動將在第四季度增加，這已包含在我們的指導中，我將在幾分鐘後介紹。

Other noninterest income of $94 million declined $35 million linked quarter driven by lower private equity revenue and included negative Visa fair value adjustments totaling $51 million. As a reminder, at September 30, PNC owned 3.5 million Visa Class B shares with an unrecognized gain of approximately $1.3 billion.

由於私募股權收入下降，其他非利息收入 9,400 萬美元下降了 3,500 萬美元，其中包括總計 5,100 萬美元的 Visa 公允價值負調整。需要提醒的是，截至 9 月 30 日，PNC 擁有 350 萬股 Visa B 類股票，未確認收益約 13 億美元。

Turning to Slide 9. Our third quarter expenses were down $127 million or 4% linked quarter which in part reflected our increased CIP program. And we generated 3% positive operating leverage on both a year-to-date and a linked quarter basis.

轉向幻燈片 9。我們第三季的支出減少了 1.27 億美元，環比下降了 4%，這在一定程度上反映了我們增加的 CIP 計劃。我們的年初至今和相關季度均產生了 3% 的正營運槓桿。

Importantly, every expense category remained stable or declined compared to the second quarter of 2023. Our credit metrics are presented on Slide 10 while overall credit quality remains strong across our portfolio, the pressures we anticipated within the commercial real estate office sector have begun to materialize.

重要的是，與2023 年第二季相比，每個費用類別均保持穩定或下降。我們的信用指標如幻燈片10 所示，雖然我們的投資組合的整體信用品質仍然強勁，但我們預期的商業房地產辦公部門的壓力已開始顯現。

Nonperforming loans increased $210 million or 11%, linked quarter. The increase was driven by multi-tenant office, CRE, which increased $373 million, but was partially offset by a decline of $163 million in non-CRE NPLs.

不良貸款季增 2.1 億美元，成長 11%。這一增長是由多租戶辦公室 CRE 推動的，該辦公室增加了 3.73 億美元，但部分被非 CRE 不良貸款減少 1.63 億美元所抵消。

In regard to the CRE office portfolio, total criticized loans remained essentially flat quarter-over-quarter at 23%. The difference this quarter is the migration of certain multi-tenant office loans to NPL status which is an expected outcome as we work to resolve the occupancy and rate challenges inherent to this portfolio.

就商業房地產辦公室投資組合而言，受批評的貸款總額環比基本持平，為 23%。本季的不同之處在於，某些多租戶辦公貸款轉為不良貸款狀態，這是我們努力解決該投資組合固有的入住率和利率挑戰時的預期結果。

Ultimately, we expect future losses on this portfolio, and we believe we have reserved against those potential losses accordingly. As of September 30, our reserves on the office portfolio were 8.5% of total office loans and inside of that 12.5% on the multi-tenant portfolio.

最終，我們預計該投資組合未來將遭受損失，並且我們相信我們已相應地為這些潛在損失做好了準備。截至 9 月 30 日，我們辦公室投資組合的準備金佔辦公室貸款總額的 8.5%，其中多租戶投資組合的準備金佔 12.5%。

Naturally, we'll continue to monitor and review our assumptions, especially in the higher rate environment to ensure they reflect the real-time market conditions and a full update of the portfolio is included in the appendix slides. Total delinquencies of $1.3 billion increased $75 million or 6% linked quarter driven by higher consumer loan delinquencies. Net loan charge-offs of $121 million declined $73 million or 38% linked quarter. Our annualized net charge-offs to average loans ratio was 15 basis points in the third quarter.

當然，我們將繼續監控和審查我們的假設，特別是在利率較高的環境下，以確保它們反映即時市場狀況，並在附錄投影片中包含投資組合的完整更新。由於消費者貸款拖欠率上升，拖欠總額 13 億美元增加了 7,500 萬美元，即季度增加 6%。淨貸款沖銷額為 1.21 億美元，季減 7,300 萬美元，下降 38%。第三季我們的年化淨沖銷與平均貸款比率為 15 個基點。

And our allowance for credit losses totaled $5.4 billion or 1.7% of total loans on September 30, essentially stable at June 30.

截至9月30日，我們的信貸損失準備金總額為54億美元，佔貸款總額的1.7%，與6月30日基本穩定。

Turning to Slide 11. From a capital perspective, we're well positioned with a CET1 ratio of 9.8% as of September 30. This slide illustrates the impact to our capital levels assuming the Basel III end game proposed rules were effective as of September 30. The inclusion of AOCI reduces our ratio by approximately 190 basis points. And the impact of all other proposed Basel III endgame components are estimated to have an additional negative 40 to 50 basis point impact to our CET1.

轉向幻燈片11。從資本角度來看，截至9 月30 日，我們的CET1 比率為9.8%，處於有利位置。這張幻燈片說明了假設巴塞爾III 最終遊戲提議規則於9 月30 日生效對我們資本水準的影響. 納入 AOCI 後，我們的比率降低了約 190 個基點。據估計，所有其他擬議的巴塞爾協議 III 最終部分的影響將對我們的 CET1 產生額外的 40 至 50 個基點的負面影響。

Taken together, the current Basel III end-game proposal would increase our risk-weighted assets by approximately 3% to 4%. And our estimated fully phased-in expanded risk-based CET1 ratio would be approximately 7.4%, which is above our current requirement of 7%. In light of the fluidity of the capital proposals, our share repurchase activity remains on pause. We'll continue to evaluate the potential impact of the proposed rules and may resume share repurchases activity depending on market and economic conditions as well as other factors.

總而言之，目前的巴塞爾協議 III 最終提案將使我們的風險加權資產增加約 3% 至 4%。我們估計全面分階段擴大的基於風險的 CET1 比率約為 7.4%，高於我們目前 7% 的要求。鑑於資本提案的流動性，我們的股票回購活動仍處於暫停狀態。我們將繼續評估擬議規則的潛在影響，並可能根據市場和經濟狀況以及其他因素恢復股票回購活動。

In regard to the long-term debt proposal, if the rule was effective at the end of the third quarter, our binding constraint would be the long-term debt to risk-weighted assets ratio at both the holding company and the bank level. We estimate our current shortfall at the holding company (inaudible) bank to be approximately $1 billion and $8 billion, respectively. And we expect to reach compliance at both the consolidated and bank level through our current funding plan as well as the restructuring of existing intercompany debt.

關於長期債務建議，如果該規則在第三季末生效，我們的約束約束將是控股公司和銀行層級的長期債務與風險加權資產的比率。我們估計控股公司（聽不清楚）銀行目前的缺口分別約為 10 億美元和 80 億美元。我們希望透過目前的融資計劃以及現有公司間債務的重組，在合併和銀行層面實現合規。

We acknowledge and want to emphasize that proposals are still in their comment period and the final rules are subject to change. That being said, we're well positioned to comply with the proposals as drafted.

我們承認並想強調，提案仍處於徵求意見期，最終規則可能會改變。話雖這麼說，我們完全有能力遵守起草的提案。

Slide 12 provides more detail on the $16 billion portfolio of capital commitment facilities we acquired from Signature Bridge Bank earlier this month. PNC has been active in the capital commitment business for many years. We believe the acquisition will enhance our broader efforts in the private equity sponsor industry. Signature's origination strategy was similar to PNC's, which is focused on building relationships with large and established fund managers. As such, we expect to retain 75% of the portfolio.

投影片 12 詳細介紹了我們本月稍早從 Signature Bridge Bank 收購的 160 億美元資本承諾融資組合。 PNC 多年來一直活躍於資本承諾業務。我們相信，此次收購將加強我們在私募股權發起人產業的更廣泛努力。 Signature 的發起策略與 PNC 類似，重點是與大型且成熟的基金管理公司建立關係。因此，我們預計將保留 75% 的投資組合。

This acquisition is financially attractive, given the purchase price of 99% of par and the high credit quality of the portfolio. Importantly, the transaction does not have a material impact to our capital ratios or tangible book value per share.

鑑於 99% 的收購價格以及投資組合的高信用質量，此次收購在財務上具有吸引力。重要的是，該交易不會對我們的資本比率或每股有形帳面價值產生重大影響。

Slide 13 details our focus on controlling expenses. As Bill mentioned, we remain diligent in our expense management efforts, particularly when considering the current revenue environment. Our continuous improvement program has been in place for over a decade. And through this program, we've utilized expense savings to fund our ongoing business growth and technology investments.

投影片 13 詳細介紹了我們對控制費用的關注。正如比爾所提到的，我們仍然努力進行費用管理工作，特別是考慮到當前的收入環境。我們的持續改進計劃已經實施了十多年。透過該計劃，我們利用節省的費用為我們持續的業務成長和技術投資提供資金。

Over the past 10 years, through CIP, we've identified and completed actions to reinvest $3.7 billion in our company. As you know, we have a 2023 CIP target of $450 million, and we're on track to meet that target. Looking to 2024, even though we've just begun our budgeting process, we do expect a 2024 annual CIP goal of similar magnitude to the 2023 program. Our CIP efforts over the years have allowed us to substantially invest in our company while still delivering low single-digit annual expense growth.

過去 10 年來，透過 CIP，我們已確定並完成了對公司再投資 37 億美元的行動。如您所知，我們的 2023 年 CIP 目標為 4.5 億美元，並且我們有望實現該目標。展望 2024 年，儘管我們剛開始預算流程，但我們確實預期 2024 年年度 CIP 目標的規模與 2023 年計畫的規模相似。多年來我們的 CIP 努力使我們能夠對公司進行大量投資，同時仍實現較低的個位數年度費用成長。

However, the current environment poses meaningful pressures necessitating expense control measures beyond our annual CIP program. As a result, we took a hard look at our organizational structure and identified opportunities to operate more efficiently through staff reductions, which we began implementing earlier this month. This initiative will decrease the workforce by 4% and is expected to reduce 2024 expenses by approximately $325 million.

然而，當前的環境帶來了巨大的壓力，需要我們在年度 CIP 計劃之外採取費用控制措施。因此，我們認真審視了我們的組織結構，並找到了透過裁員來提高營運效率的機會，並在本月初開始實施。該舉措將減少 4% 的勞動力，預計 2024 年費用將減少約 3.25 億美元。

Onetime costs associated with this plan are expected to be approximately $150 million and will be incurred during the fourth quarter of 2023. We believe these actions will position PNC for stronger efficiency going forward. As a result, even though our budgeting cycle isn't complete, we have an objective to keep core expenses stable in 2024, which, by definition, would exclude the fourth quarter onetime charges.

與該計劃相關的一次性成本預計約為 1.5 億美元，並將在 2023 年第四季度產生。我們相信這些行動將使 PNC 未來提高效率。因此，儘管我們的預算週期尚未完成，但我們的目標是在 2024 年保持核心支出穩定，根據定義，這將排除第四季度的一次性費用。

In summary, PNC reported a solid third quarter 2023. In regard to our view of the overall economy, we're expecting a mild recession starting in the first half of 2024, with a contraction in real GDP of less than 1%.

總而言之，PNC 報告稱 2023 年第三季業績強勁。就我們對整體經濟的看法而言，我們預計 2024 年上半年將出現溫和衰退，實際 GDP 收縮幅度將低於 1%。

We expect the federal funds rate to remain unchanged in the near term between 5.25% and 5.5% through mid-2024 when we expect the Fed to begin cutting rates. Looking ahead, our outlook for the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the third quarter of 2023 is as follows: we expect average loans to be up approximately 3%, including the acquisition of the Signature Bank capital commitment facilities; net interest income to be down 1% to 2%; fee income to be up approximately 1% as increased capital markets activity is expected to more than offset the impact of the elevated MSR hedge gains during the third quarter.

我們預計聯邦基金利率短期內將維持在 5.25% 至 5.5% 之間，直至 2024 年中期，屆時我們預計聯準會將開始降息。展望未來，我們對 2023 年第四季與 2023 年第三季相比的展望如下：我們預期平均貸款將成長約 3%，包括收購 Signature Bank 資本承諾融資；淨利息收入下降1%至2%；費用收入將成長約 1%，因為資本市場活動的增加預計將足以抵消第三季 MSR 對沖收益增加的影響。

Other noninterest income to be in the range of $150 million and $200 million, excluding net securities and Visa activity. We expect total core noninterest expense to be up 3% to 4%, which excludes charges related to the workforce reduction. Additionally, this guidance does not contemplate the pending FDIC special assessment, which could occur during the fourth quarter. And we expect fourth quarter net charge-offs to be between $200 million and $250 million. And with that, Bill and I are ready to take your questions.

其他非利息收入在 1.5 億至 2 億美元之間，不包括淨證券和 Visa 活動。我們預計核心非利息支出總額將增加 3% 至 4%，其中不包括與裁員相關的費用。此外，本指南並未考慮即將進行的 FDIC 特別評估，該評估可能會在第四季度進行。我們預計第四季淨沖銷額將在 2 億至 2.5 億美元之間。至此，比爾和我準備好回答你們的問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from the line of John Pancari with Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 John Pancari。

Just regarding the office increase in nonperformers that you discussed a bit, could you just give us a little bit more detail? Is that more indicative of -- did you see an acceleration in the deterioration of these credits that were noteworthy in the quarter and that necessitated to move to nonaccrual? Or was this more of a function of an ongoing scrub of your portfolio as your as you're reevaluating collateral values or whatnot behind properties?

關於您討論過的辦公室不良人員增加的問題，您能給我們更多細節嗎？這是否更能說明——您是否看到這些信貸惡化加速，這些信貸在本季度值得注意，因此有必要轉為非應計信貸？或者，這更多是因為您正在重新評估抵押品價值或房產背後的其他內容，從而對您的投資組合進行持續清理？

And as you do that as well, can you maybe talk about some of the value depreciation you're beginning to see on some properties that are traded?

當你這樣做的時候，你能談談你開始看到的一些交易房產的價值貶值嗎？

I guess what I would say is what you're seeing is kind of our expected cycle through deteriorating credit. So our criticized list didn't really move. We moved inside of that loans to nonperforming. By the way, I think they're actually all still accruing. We just kind of get there because we don't think they're refinanceable in the current market. The move to nonperforming from already being criticized comes about as you just watch cap rates creeping higher and adjust the underlying value of the properties accordingly.

我想我想說的是，你所看到的是我們預期的信貸惡化週期。所以我們的批評名單並沒有真正動起來。我們將這些貸款轉入不良貸款。順便說一句，我認為它們實際上仍在累積。我們只是到達那裡，因為我們認為它們在當前市場上無法再融資。當你看到資本化率逐漸走高並相應調整房產的潛在價值時，就會從已經受到批評的不良資產轉向不良資產。

So I don't -- I mean, none of this is a surprise. We have heavy reserves against it. We kind of saw it coming. It's the big bulk of these properties moving through the snake, as it were.

所以我不——我的意思是，這一切都不足為奇。我們有大量的儲備來應對它。我們有點預見它的到來。可以說，這些屬性的大部分是透過蛇移動的。

Just the migration of the path. We do expect losses, as I said in my comments, but we believe that we're appropriately reserved.

只是路徑的遷移。正如我在評論中所說，我們確實預計會出現損失，但我們相信我們的保留是適當的。

There's no -- there's -- it's not like there's some new scrubbing, John. I mean, we've been -- we're live on every one of these properties every day. So it's not like we opened a drawer and found something. We know exactly what (inaudible) these are and we are monitoring and updating (inaudible).

沒有——有——這不像是有什麼新的擦洗，約翰。我的意思是，我們每天都住在這些房產的每一處。所以我們並不是打開抽屜就發現了什麼。我們確切地知道這些是什麼（聽不清楚），而且我們正在監控和更新（聽不清楚）。

Got it. Okay. And then separately on the expense side, can you maybe help us think about how the how the $325 million that you expect to fall out of the bottom line from the headcount rationalization? How that would impact the growth rate that you expect overall for expenses in 2024 versus 2023. How should we think about that growth?

知道了。好的。然後，在費用方面，您能否幫助我們考慮您預計因員工人數合理化而導致的 3.25 億美元將如何超出底線？這將如何影響您預計 2024 年與 2023 年整體支出成長率。我們應該如何看待這種成長？

Yes. So I mentioned in my opening comments, when we walk down both the CIP that we anticipate implementing in '24 along with this workforce reduction that our objective is to keep '24 expenses stable year-over-year. We haven't completed our budget process. In fact, we're at the beginning of our budget process. So we don't have a lot of '24 guidance for you other than that is our objective, and that will be our expectation.

是的。因此，我在開場白中提到，當我們執行預計在 24 年實施的 CIP 以及裁員時，我們的目標是保持 24 年支出穩定。我們尚未完成預算流程。事實上，我們正​​處於預算流程的開始階段。因此，除了我們的目標和期望之外，我們沒有太多 24 小時的指導。

John, the other thing -- the reason we kind of put the continuous improvement in there is it's a number that we typically reinvest into our growth businesses in the future of the company. So that's sort of what's been driving our investment game for the last bunch of years, and that continues. What's new is basically dropping the run rate related to personnel and just tightening the ship in what is a tougher revenue environment.

約翰，另一件事——我們之所以將持續改善放在那裡，是因為我們通常會再投資於公司未來的成長業務。這就是過去幾年推動我們投資遊戲的動力，而且這種情況仍在繼續。新的內容基本上是降低與人員相關的運作率，並在收入環境更加嚴峻的情況下收緊船舶。

Got it. Got it. And I'm sorry, if I could ask just one more. On the Signature acquisition, of the Signature loans, that is, the $0.10 of accretion that you mentioned on that. Can you maybe just walk us through the components of that, how you arrive at that amount?

知道了。知道了。很抱歉，我還能再問一個問題嗎？在 Signature 收購中，在 Signature 貸款中，即您提到的 0.10 美元的增值。您能否向我們介紹其中的組成部分，以及您是如何得出這個金額的？

Sure. That's basically the yield in terms of the portfolio that we purchased. They are short term, about a year. So we do expect that $0.10 a share that we talked about in the fourth quarter and then going into '24. But when we get to 24, of course, we'll include that in our full year guidance.

當然。這基本上就是我們購買的投資組合的收益率。它們是短期的，大約一年。因此，我們確實預計我們在第四季度討論的每股 0.10 美元，然後進入 24 年。但當我們達到 24 時，當然，我們會將其納入全年指導中。

Our next question is from the line of Matt O'Cornor with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

This is (inaudible) on behalf of Matt O'Connor. Just one quick follow-up on the expense program. You talked about the $725 million total cost actions. So outside of the workplace reduction, can you just talk about the -- just the other areas of efficiencies you're investing in?

這是（聽不清楚）代表馬特·奧康納。只是對費用計劃的快速跟進。您談到了 7.25 億美元的總成本行動。那麼，除了減少工作場所之外，您能否談談您正在投資的其他效率領域？

I mean the workforce reduction is the specific number we mentioned of the $325 million inside of continuous improvement, which we do every year. We're focused on contract renewals, on management of the (inaudible), building...

我的意思是，裁員是我們每年在持續改善中提到的 3.25 億美元的具體數字。我們專注於合約續約、（聽不清楚）管理、建置…

Segments.

片段。

Occupancy, efficiencies, all the things you'd expect us to be focused on in the ordinary course of running the business.

入住率、效率，以及您希望我們在日常業務運作過程中關注的所有事項。

And that's a program that we've had in place, as I mentioned, for several years and allows us to -- it has allowed us to grow annual expenses in the low single-digit range, even with all those investments. And in point of fact, this year, we're pointing to 1% growth year-over-year -- '23 over '22 and a large part of that is because of our continuous improvement program.

正如我所提到的，這是一個我們已經實施了好幾年的計劃，它使我們能夠將年度支出成長在較低的個位數範圍內，即使有所有這些投資。事實上，今年我們預計將實現 1% 的同比增長——“23 年比 22 年增長”，其中很大一部分原因是我們的持續改進計劃。

And then if I could just ask a follow-up question on the capital markets fees. So they came in weaker than expected this quarter. You talked about, I think, stable versus the last quarter. One of your larger peers reported stronger capital markets this morning. Can you just talk about the driver of this? Was it mostly mix related? And then maybe touch on the outlook near term given the macro outlook is better than a few months ago?

然後我能否問一個有關資本市場費用的後續問題。因此，他們本季的表現弱於預期。我認為您談到了與上個季度相比的穩定。今天早上，您的一位較大的同行報告說資本市場走強。您能簡單談談這個驅動程式嗎？主要是與混合有關嗎？鑑於宏觀前景好於幾個月前，或許可以談談近期的前景？

I didn't -- I'm not sure what anybody else reported. My guess was that the trading line item was better than peer fees. But -- in our case, the bulk of our capital markets income come from various advisory fees from Harris Williams or Solebury or syndications and so forth. And while the pipelines remain robust, if not at record levels, the activity level, while there's been some green shoots just hasn't been strong. Eventually, it flows through, but we're getting a little tired of predicting when it will be.

我沒有——我不確定其他人報道了什麼。我的猜測是，交易行項目比同業費用更好。但是，就我們而言，我們資本市場的大部分收入來自 Harris Williams 或 Solebury 或銀團等的各種諮詢費。儘管管道仍然強勁，即使沒有達到創紀錄的水平，但活動水平雖然出現了一些新的萌芽，但並不強勁。最終，它會通過，但我們有點厭倦了預測它什麼時候會發生。

But I would add to that, our capital markets is weighted towards our M&A advisory, Harris Williams. We had a soft second quarter. At the end of the second quarter, our pipelines were higher than the first quarter. So we thought naturally that the third quarter would be higher, but it wasn't. So we find ourselves at the end of the third quarter with even higher pipelines than we had at the beginning of the quarter.

但我想補充一點，我們的資本市場偏重於我們的併購顧問哈里斯威廉斯(Harris Williams)。我們的第二季表現疲軟。第二季末，我們的管道數量高於第一季。所以我們自然認為第三季會更高，但事實並非如此。因此，我們發現第三季末的管道數量比本季初還要多。

But inside of that, a subset of the pipeline are signed deals, which that part is higher than it was at this point last quarter. So we do expect to see the lift, and our expectations are that we get back to first quarter levels.

但其中，管道的一個子集已簽署交易，該部分高於上季度此時的水平。因此，我們確實預計會看到成長，並且我們的期望是回到第一季的水平。

Our next question is from the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Scott Siefers 和 Piper Sandler。

I wanted to ask sort of a broad question on NII. Are we getting to a point where that will start to trough. So maybe, Rob, just sort of some of the puts and takes. It seems like your deposit betas are coming in as expected or better. I know there should be some asset repricing as we look into next year. But some of the larger banks have been sort of vocal about the degree to which there's still overearning on NII, which I think is kind of kept these fears of still bleeding out NII sort of industry-wide. Maybe just some thoughts on how you see things playing out for PNC, in particular.

我想問一個關於 NII 的廣泛問題。我們是否已經到了開始陷入低谷的地步了？所以，羅布，也許只是一些投入和採取的事情。您的存款貝塔值似乎符合預期或更好。我知道，當我們展望明年時，應該對資產進行一些重新定價。但一些較大的銀行一直在直言不諱地表示，NII 仍然存在超額收益，我認為這在一定程度上抑制了人們對 NII 仍在全行業範圍內流失的擔憂。也許只是關於您如何看待 PNC 的發展的一些想法。

I'll start. All of it ends up being dependent on what you think the Fed is going to do. Personally, I think the Fed is higher for longer, even higher for longer than the market expects on our official forecast. I guess we have 2 cuts towards the back half of next year. As short rates stay higher, you will continue to see betas creep up, both because we're going to reprice the back book and secondly, because you'll just not on betas, but just on the shift from noninterest-bearing to interest-bearing.

我開始吧。所有這一切最終都取決於你對聯準會將要做什麼的看法。就我個人而言，我認為聯準會升息的時間更長，甚至比市場對我們官方預測的預期更高。我想明年下半年我們會有兩次削減。隨著短期利率保持在較高水平，您將繼續看到貝塔值上升，一是因為我們將重新定價回賬，二是因為您將不再使用貝塔值，而只是從無息向有息轉變-軸承。

So when that inflection point is -- has in some ways to do the most with what's going on with the yield curve and the Fed. As the curve continues to flatten by the long end selling off, all else equal, that helps not withstanding the markets on our existing bonds, it helps with the price we get on the roll down and reinvestment. So there's too many variables in there. But the basic notion that were at the inflection point, I think, is entirely dependent on what happens with the Fed in the coming year. And we haven't done our budget yet, so we're not going to call it.

因此，當拐點出現時，在某些方面對殖利率曲線和聯準會的情況有最大的影響。在其他條件相同的情況下，隨著長期拋售導致曲線繼續趨於平坦，這有助於我們現有債券的市場承受能力，也有助於我們在展期和再投資中獲得的價格。所以這裡面的變數太多了。但我認為，處於轉折點的基本概念完全取決於聯準會來年的情況。我們還沒有完成預算，所以我們不會呼叫它。

I would just add to that, just observations. Deposits continue to decline. We expected that, but that decline is slowing. Betas have gone up but the increase has slowed. In fact, in the third quarter, they came -- actuals came in lower than what we expected for the first time since rates have been increasing rapidly. So things have slowed as far as that trajectory is. And then obviously, the inflection point issues that Bill just covered are valid.

我只想補充一點，只是觀察。存款持續下降。我們預料到了這一點，但下降速度正在放緩。貝塔值有所上升，但增幅放緩。事實上，在第三季度，實際情況首次低於我們的預期，因為利率一直在快速成長。因此，就目前的軌跡而言，事情已經放緩了。顯然，比爾剛剛討論的拐點問題是有效的。

Okay. Perfect. And then maybe a question on credit as well. I guess there -- just in the last few weeks, there have been a couple of commercial hiccups in the industry in the shared national credit space. Just was hoping you might be able to remind us about PNC's exposure in this next phase and then just generalization, sort of how that portfolio quality compares to the rest of the book, how much you lead, et cetera?

好的。完美的。也許還有一個關於信用的問題。我想就在過去幾週，共享國家信貸領域的產業出現了一些商業問題。只是希望您能夠提醒我們 PNC 在下一階段的風險敞口，然後進行概括，例如該投資組合的質量與本書的其餘部分相比如何，您領先多少，等等？

Yes, pretty good there, Scott in terms of credit. So all the noise, so to speak, is in the commercial real estate office space that we spoke about. As far as the shared national credit results went, they're complete. They're represented in our numbers, and it was pretty benign in terms of total deals, upgrades were more than downgrades, but they were a handful of each.

是的，就信用而言，斯科特，相當不錯。所以可以說，所有的噪音都在我們談到的商業房地產辦公空間。就共享國家信用結果而言，它們是完整的。它們在我們的數據中有所體現，就總交易而言，這是相當良性的，升級多於降級，但每種情況都很少。

Our next question is from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的 Gerard Cassidy。

You guys gave us good color on the burn off of the securities portfolio. A question I had is, it looked like this quarter, you put more up a descend. So what are you guys doing with the cash flows from the portfolio now in terms of where you're putting it in other securities? And then second, once the Basel III end game is finalized, how do you think you guys will approach in carrying your securities? Will you carry less on available for sale or more? Can you share with us your thoughts there as well?

你們給我們提供了有關證券投資組合燒毀的精彩資訊。我的一個問題是，看起來這個季度，你在下降方面投入了更多。那麼，你們現在如何處理投資組合中的現金流以及將其投入其他證券的情況呢？其次，一旦巴塞爾協議 III 最終確定下來，你們認為你們將如何處理你們的證券？您會減少或增加可供出售的商品嗎？您也可以跟我們分享一下您的想法嗎？

Just with the existing book, it's running down. We've run down the DV01 in our securities and swaps through the course of the entire year. We've had some purchases but not to the extent we've had maturities and we've been buying, I don't know what average yield is, but stuff that roughly carries flat versus leaving it into Fed.

就現有的書而言，它已經耗盡了。我們全年都在降低證券和掉期的 DV01。我們已經購買了一些東西，但還沒有達到我們已經到期的程度，而且我們一直在購買，我不知道平均收益率是多少，但與將其留在美聯儲相比，這些東西大致持平。

Going forward, the switch from available for sale to held to maturity doesn't really affect anything. It's an accounting entry. So we'll keep some amount in available for sale to the extent we trade around that book. But we don't trade around that book all that much, and the rest will just buy and down to maturity, which is, by the way, what we've been doing thus far since rates have gone up.

展望未來，從可供出售到持有至到期的轉變實際上不會產生任何影響。這是一個會計分錄。因此，我們將在圍繞該書進行交易的範圍內保留一些可供出售的金額。但我們不會圍繞這本書進行太多交易，其餘的只會購買並下降到到期日，順便說一句，這也是自利率上升以來我們一直在做的事情。

There's a couple of things to add. One of the uses of cash, Gerard, was the purchase of the signature loans. So that was our biggest -- that was our biggest outlay. Yes, that was our biggest outlay. And then on the split, Bill has it right. Where we are now is probably about where we are, plus or minus to your views in terms of -- but where we got to holding it all to 100% of AFS was the tailoring, which has passed us. So we're back to sort of the normal split.

有幾件事需要補充。傑拉德，現金的用途之一是購買簽名貸款。所以這是我們最大的支出。是的，這是我們最大的支出。然後在分裂方面，比爾是對的。我們現在所處的位置可能取決於我們所處的位置，加上或減去您的觀點——但我們必須將其全部保持在 100% AFS 的地方是剪裁，它已經超越了我們。所以我們又回到了正常的分裂。

Very good. And then as a follow-up, you just mentioned about the purchase of the signature loans. You guys are in a good position that not being impacted by Basel III end-game, RWA inflation like some of the big money centers, of course. Do you think there's going to be opportunities for you guys to buy other portfolios, not from the FDIC per se, but from some of your peers or banks that do mitigation strategies to get to these RWA targets they need to get to?

非常好。作為後續行動，您剛才提到了購買簽名貸款的問題。當然，你們處於有利地位，不會受到巴塞爾協議 III 最終遊戲和 RWA 通膨的影響。您認為您是否有機會購買其他投資組合，不是從 FDIC 本身購買，而是從一些採取緩解策略以實現他們需要實現的 RWA 目標的同行或銀行購買？

I suppose there could be. I don't know that we've actually seen any. We get pitched by everybody to execute one, which we don't need for. But the purchase side of that is actually pretty attractive. They're giving away a lot of economics. So actually a good thought. I'll go look around.

我想可能有。我不知道我們是否真的見過。每個人都向我們推銷執行一項任務，但我們並不需要這麼做。但購買方面其實相當有吸引力。他們放棄了很多經濟學。所以實際上是一個好主意。我去四處看看。

No, we have the capital flexibility to do it, and people know our telephone number.

不，我們有足夠的資金靈活性來做到這一點，而且人們知道我們的電話號碼。

Yes. And then specifically, it would be more in the C&I space or consumer? Or do you guys have a preference should they call that phone number, Rob?

是的。那麼具體來說，它會更多地出現在工商業領域還是消費者領域？或者你們更傾向於撥打那個電話號碼嗎，羅布？

It's -- look, we're intelligent -- hopefully, intelligent takers of risk at the right price. We can evaluate what's out there.

看，我們很聰明，希望能夠以合適的價格聰明地承擔風險。我們可以評估那裡的情況。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from the line of Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Bill Carcache 和 Wolfe Research 的線路。

Bill and Rob, I wanted to follow up on your office CRE comments. How much of an impact to debt service coverage are PNC customers experiencing from swaps that are rolling off, saying cases where they issued floating rate debt on reserve 2 to 3 years ago and put on swaps to lock in low fixed rates at the time but are now facing a significant reset as those swaps mature. I'm just curious if how significant that maturing swap dynamic is inside of the portfolio and whether you feel like you have a good handle on that dynamic?

Bill 和 Rob，我想跟進你們辦公室 CRE 的評論。 PNC 客戶因掉期而經歷的債務償還範圍受到多大影響，他們表示，他們在 2 至 3 年前發行了浮動利率準備金債務，並通過掉期鎖定了當時的低固定利率，但隨著這些互換的成熟，現在面臨重大重置。我只是很好奇，成熟的掉期動態在投資組合內部有多重要，以及您是否覺得自己能夠很好地處理這種動態？

I don't know the answer to that. I would tell you though the bulk of our stuff, and you see it in our maturity schedules, we are kind of stabilization loans, project loans. And so in that instance, the hedge dynamics of somebody would put on that loan. My experience would be less than what they would have done on a term, 10-year CMBS alternative.

我不知道答案。我想告訴你，我們的大部分東西，你可以在我們的到期時間表中看到，我們是穩定貸款、專案貸款。因此，在這種情況下，某人的對沖動態就會提供該貸款。我的經驗會少於他們在 10 年期 CMBS 替代方案中的經驗。

So my guess is it's not -- I think they're just in trouble floating rate loans, from lease rates going down, from vacancies going up and from the rehab costs of redoing floors.

所以我的猜測是不是——我認為他們只是在浮動利率貸款方面遇到了麻煩，因為租賃利率下降，空置率上升，以及重做樓層的修復成本。

Capital improvements.

資本改善。

Yes. Just dropping the value of the buildings.

是的。只是降低了建築物的價值。

Understood. That's helpful. And if I could follow up on that. If refinancing loans at current market rates would cause debt service coverage ratios to fall below one, can you discuss how much leeway there is inside of PNC to refinance loans under potentially more favorable terms to allow debt service coverage ratios to remain satisfactory.

明白了。這很有幫助。如果我能跟進的話。如果按當前市場利率對貸款進行再融資會導致償債覆蓋率降至1 以下，您能否討論一下PNC 內部有多少餘地可以在可能更優惠的條件下為貸款進行再融資，以使償債覆蓋率保持令人滿意的水平。

And then maybe just more broadly across the industry, do you think so-called extended pretend dynamics could become pervasive, particularly since banks have made it clear they don't own office buildings. And we've seen some commentary from regulators sort of urging banks to work with their customers.

然後，也許在整個行業更廣泛的範圍內，您是否認為所謂的擴展假裝動態可能會變得普遍，特別是因為銀行已經明確表示它們不擁有辦公大樓。我們看到監管機構發表了一些評論，敦促銀行與客戶合作。

Well, I think the extend part is possible. I think the pretend part, that doesn't work. We work with borrowers to figure out how to maximize the value of the property because that's ultimately going to maximize the value of our loan. In some instances, that means taking the building and selling it. In some instances, that means getting more equity capital, extending a loan at a debt service coverage ratio, we normally wouldn't under the theory that they can lease it up itself.

嗯，我認為擴展部分是可能的。我認為假裝部分不起作用。我們與借款人合作，找出如何最大化房產價值，因為這最終將使我們的貸款價值最大化。在某些情況下，這意味著拿走建築物並將其出售。在某些情況下，這意味著獲得更多的股本，以償債覆蓋率提供貸款，我們通常不會認為他們可以自行出租。

But each and every one of those decisions is a decision tree based on what's the net present value of what we PNC can get against our loan. In any event, if we do something that is uneconomic relative to the original loan, that shows up in our reserves or charge-offs or so on and so forth. There's no pretend involved.

但這些決策中的每一個都是一棵決策樹，該決策樹基於我們 PNC 可以從貸款中獲得的淨現值。無論如何，如果我們做了一些相對於原始貸款不經濟的事情，就會出現在我們的準備金或沖銷等。沒有任何假裝參與。

Understood. That's very helpful, Bill. And if I could squeeze in one last one on the point about whether we're at an inflection point on deposit betas sort of depending on the Fed. Does it correlate? That suggests that we could see terminal beta expectations potentially drift higher relative to prior guidance, again, depending on how much higher for longer persists?

明白了。這非常有幫助，比爾。如果我能擠進最後一個關於我們是否處於存款貝塔拐點的觀點，這在某種程度上取決於聯準會。有相關性嗎？這表明我們可能會看到最終貝塔預期相對於先前的指導可能會走高，同樣，這取決於持續時間較長的情況下會走高多少？

Yes, I think -- and by the way, this isn't a forecast. I think it's just common sense, right? To the extent that we still have a back book of business as does everybody that hasn't necessarily repriced. And if rates are pinned at 5% forever in time, that beta will continue to go up. It's a function of how high does the Fed go and how long do they stay there, and everybody has been wrong so far. So yes, it's a possibility.

是的，我認為——順便說一句，這不是預測。我認為這只是常識，對嗎？在某種程度上，我們仍然有大量的業務，就像每個尚未重新定價的人一樣。如果利率永遠固定在 5%，那麼貝塔值將繼續上升。這取決於聯準會的利率水準以及維持利率的時間，但到目前為止，每個人都錯了。所以是的，這是有可能的。

Understood. I wanted to ask you another one about the CFPB sort of open banking proposal, Bill, but I'll queue back up for that one.

明白了。比爾，我想向您詢問另一項有關 CFPB 之類的開放銀行提案的問題，但我會排隊等候該提案。

Our next question is from the line of Peter Troisi with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Peter Troisi。

Thanks very much for the disclosure on the long-term debt shortfall in the slides. You talked about $10 billion of debt issuance annually. But do you anticipate needing to issue more than $10 billion to close the shortfall that you disclosed in the slides? Or can the $8 billion shortfall at the bank be met just by restructuring existing internal debt. And I guess the question really is, do you expect to issue debt at the holding company specifically to invest in the internal debt of the bank?

非常感謝幻燈片中對長期債務缺口的披露。您談到每年發行 100 億美元的債券。但您是否預計需要發行超過 100 億美元才能彌補幻燈片中披露的資金缺口？或者說，銀行 80 億美元的缺口是否可以透過重組現有的內部債務來彌補。我想真正的問題是，您是否希望在控股公司發行債務專門投資於銀行的內部債務？

Yes. This is Rob. So good question. So in regard to the long-term debt, our message is independent of the rules. As we resume a more conventional funding structure in terms of our debt to our deposits, that was precoded, we would be compliant. So that's the takeaway. In regard to how we get there, it's a combination of everything that you outlined. There will be issuances at the holding company as part of our ongoing plan that will then ultimately be papered down to the bank.

是的。這是羅布。好問題。因此，關於長期債務，我們的資訊獨立於規則。當我們在債務與存款方面恢復更傳統的融資結構時，這是預先編碼的，我們將遵守規定。這就是要點。至於我們如何實現這一目標，它是您概述的所有內容的結合。作為我們正在進行的計劃的一部分，控股公司將發行債券，最終將提交給銀行。

But there's a lot of moving parts there. The message is we'll get there, and we would have gotten there independent of these rules.

但那裡有很多活動部件。傳達的訊息是我們會到達那裡，無論這些規則如何，我們都會到達那裡。

Our next question is a follow-up question from the line of Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題是來自 Bill Carcache 和 Wolfe Research 的後續問題。

Yes. So Bill, I was hoping you could just share your thoughts on the CFPB's plans to propose an open banking rule. There's a view that open banking essentially forces the industry to hand over the keys to the customer relationship. You've talked in the past about sort of the dynamic of like passwords and all that kind of stuff. But I was just hoping you could speak broadly to that point, through that topic?

是的。比爾，我希望您能分享您對 CFPB 提出開放銀行規則的計劃的想法。有一種觀點認為，開放銀行本質上迫使該產業交出客戶關係的鑰匙。您過去曾談論過諸如密碼之類的動態之類的東西。但我只是希望你能透過這個主題廣泛地談論這一點？

Yes. I think what I've seen thus far out of CFPB commentary is they're largely focused on some of the right things: make it easier for customers, agree with that; secure data, agree with that; don't allow data to be sold and commercialized without customer permission, I agree with that; make customers agree to specific data items want they want to share in a secure environment.

是的。我認為到目前為止，我從 CFPB 的評論中看到的是，他們主要關註一些正確的事情：讓客戶更容易，同意這一點；保護數據，同意這一點；未經客戶許可，不允許將資料出售和商業化，我同意；使客戶同意他們希望在安全環境中共享的特定資料項目。

So all of that stuff versus where we are today, where it's a free for all, and there's a lot of fraud. Actually, I'm in favor of. The notion of kind of open banking where somehow I can just lift and shift my account from one bank to another because now there's technology to do it, I'm not that afraid of that. It's more in the technology to allow it in a secure manner, dependent of what rule is written, doesn't exist today.

所以所有這些東西與我們今天的情況相比，都是免費的，而且存在著許多詐欺行為。其實我是贊成的。開放銀行業務的概念，我可以以某種方式將我的帳戶從一家銀行轉移到另一家銀行，因為現在有技術可以做到這一點，我並不害怕這一點。更多的是在技術上以安全的方式允許它，取決於所寫的規則，今天並不存在。

And I kind of look at what they're doing and hope it's a step in the right direction on security and the safety and soundness of customer information leading to a reduction in fraud across the industry. The sound bites are, that's where they're going.

我關注他們正在做的事情，希望這是朝著安全和客戶資訊的安全性和健全性的正確方向邁出的一步，從而減少整個行業的詐欺行為。聲音摘要是，那就是他們要去的地方。

Okay. That's helpful. I had heard something along the lines of some of the actions we're taking are intended to make it easier for customers "to break up with their banks." And so I was wondering if there was anything in the language. You mentioned now you're not worried about the ability to shift the relationship. So...

好的。這很有幫助。我聽說我們正在採取的一些行動旨在讓客戶更容易「與銀行分手」。所以我想知道這門語言是否有什麼。你現在提到你並不擔心改變關係的能力。所以...

Look, at the end of the day -- by the way, if that happened, terrific. We compete every day, and we have good customer service and great products, we'll be a net beneficiary. Practically, the technology to allow that to happen. So just think about the notion of, okay, now you have connected APIs that allow somebody to gather information and move information. Now you need to build a program that keeps track of the back book while you open a new book on a checking account, transfers, balances on cards.

看看，歸根結底——順便說一句，如果那件事發生了，那就太棒了。我們每天都在競爭，我們擁有良好的客戶服務和優質的產品，我們將成為淨受益者。實際上，技術可以實現這一點。因此，請考慮一下這個概念，好吧，現在您已經連接了 API，允許某人收集資訊和移動資訊。現在，您需要建立一個程序，當您開啟支票帳戶、轉帳、卡片餘額的新帳本時，追蹤回帳記錄。

So eventually, somebody come up with a cool business model that might be able to do that on the back of a pause that allow it on the back of APIs that haven't been written yet on the back of technology that links all the banks and question together. But that hasn't happened yet.

所以最終，有人想出了一個很酷的商業模式，也許能夠在暫停的情況下做到這一點，允許它在尚未編寫的API 的支持下，在連接所有銀行和銀行的技術的支持下實現這一點。一起提問。但這還沒有發生。

Our next question is from the line of Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的麥克梅奧。

Sorry about that earlier. So in terms of the decline in commercial loans, is how much of that decline is due to softer demand? And how much of that is deliberate as you look to shore up capital more than you previously would have intended?

之前的事很抱歉。那麼，就商業貸款的下降而言，其中有多少是由於需求疲軟造成的？當您希望比以前更多地支撐資本時，其中有多少是故意的？

Well, none of it is deliberate per se. We've seen some drop in utilization. We've seen a drop in kind of refinance rate as people are -- you think about a corporate loan revolver, where it's a 3-year and every 2 years, you renew it for the next 3 years. Everybody is kind of extending that under the hope that things are going to get better on spreads. So there's just been less activity.

好吧，這一切本身並不是故意的。我們發現利用率有所下降。我們已經看到人們的再融資率下降——你想想公司貸款循環貸款，它的期限是 3 年，每 2 年，你就可以在接下來的 3 年續簽一次。每個人都在延長這期限，希望價差情況會好轉。所以活動減少了。

At the margin, we are extending less credit into credit-only new relationships on the hope that we're going to get fees versus protecting our wallet where we already have a lot of fees and get cross-sell. But that's kind of a met the margin.

在邊際上，我們正​​在向純信用新關係提供更少的信用，希望我們能夠獲得費用，而不是保護我們已經有很多費用並獲得交叉銷售的錢包。但這已經達到極限了。

That's small. It's on the demand side.

那很小。這是在需求方面。

Okay. And you're very clear about the expense guidance and the tough actions you're taking with personnel. Did you give an outlook for operating leverage over next year? Do you think the pace of expense decline will be faster than any decline in revenues?

好的。您非常清楚費用指導以及您對人員的強硬行動。您是否對明年的營運槓桿率做出了展望？您認為費用下降的速度會比收入下降的速度更快嗎？

And specifically to the fourth quarter, the SBNY loan acquisition looks like it adds a couple of percent to your fourth quarter NII, but you're guiding down 1% to 2%. So that decline might be a little bit more than some had expected. Is it more than you had expected?

具體到第四季度，SBNY 貸款收購看起來會為第四季度的 NII 增加幾個百分點，但您的指導是下降 1% 到 2%。因此，下降幅度可能比某些人的預期要多一些。是不是超出你的預期？

The quarter decline looks like 2% to 4% in the fourth quarter. Is that math correct? Why is it down, maybe more than you thought? And the big question, though, is revenues versus expenses over the next year?

第四季下降幅度約為 2% 至 4%。這個數學正確嗎？為什麼下降，也許比你想像的還要下降？然而，最大的問題是明年的收入與支出？

Do you want me to? Well, on the expense issue, we did say that we expect '24 expenses to be stable. And we haven't finished our budgeting cycle. So we can't really answer in terms of anything beyond that in '24. In regard to the NII in the fourth quarter guide, it does include the Signature acquisition, which we said was about $0.10 a share. Recall in the third quarter, we had expected 3% to 5% decline. We ended up down 3%. So when we look to the fourth quarter, roll all that together, that's how we get down 1% to 2%.

你想要我這麼做嗎？嗯，關於費用問題，我們確實說過，我們預計'24費用將保持穩定。我們還沒有完成預算週期。因此，我們無法真正回答 24 年後的任何問題。關於第四季度的 NII 指南，它確實包括 Signature 收購，我們說每股約為 0.10 美元。回想一下第三季度，我們曾預計將下降3%至5%。我們最終下跌了 3%。因此，當我們展望第四季時，將所有這些綜合起來，我們就會下降 1% 到 2%。

Our next question is from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ken Usdin 和 Jefferies。

One follow-up on the Signature acquisition as well. So just wondering if you can provide a little more context on the portfolio, seeing the line that you're expecting to hold on to -- or expecting to hold on to 75% of the relationships over time. Are you bringing on new team members? Is there expenses along with that? And just anything you can help us in terms of like the duration of the loans? And is there just kind of a natural runoff that happens given I think that they're generally a pretty short duration type of loan?

還有 Signature 收購的後續行動。因此，我想知道您是否可以提供更多關於投資組合的背景信息，了解您期望保留的路線，或者期望隨著時間的推移保留 75% 的關係。您正在招募新的團隊成員嗎？隨之而來的費用還有嗎？您能在貸款期限等方面為我們提供什麼協助嗎？鑑於我認為它們通常是期限相當短的貸款類型，是否會發生自然徑流？

Yes. It's de minimis adds of people that we're bringing on. We're already in the business. We have the technology to be in the business. We know the clients. The rundown, we're kind of saying 75% probably survive. Most of that is simply a function of where we have overlap with clients and the size hold that we want to have for a particular client. We'd syndicate more of it as we kind of rightsize our hold.

是的。我們招募的人員數量是微乎其微的。我們已經開始做生意了。我們擁有從事該業務的技術。我們了解客戶。總而言之，我們可以說 75% 的人可能倖存下來。其中大部分只是我們與客戶重疊的地方以及我們希望為特定客戶擁有的規模的函數。當我們調整我們的持有規模時，我們會聯合更多的資金。

There may be inside of that book of business, a handful of people that we would choose not to renew. But the credit quality is pristine. We know we underwrote every fund that is in that. And through time, you would expect that as they mature, we'll renew. In some period of time out a couple of years, we'll end up with 75% of the notional that we started with, and you'll have no clue between now and then. How much it was.

在那本業務手冊中，可能有少數人我們會選擇不續約。但信用品質是原始的。我們知道我們承保了其中的每一個基金。隨著時間的推移，你會期望隨著它們的成熟，我們會更新。在幾年的某個時間段內，我們最終會得到我們開始時概念的 75%，而從現在到那時你將一無所知。多少錢。

But that's right. De minimis expense is involved with it, and we're excited about it.

但那是對的。這涉及到最低限度的費用，我們對此感到興奮。

Yes. That's a fair point on we won't know. That's what I was trying to ask. The second question is...

是的。這是一個公平的觀點，我們不會知道。這就是我想問的。第二個問題是...

But to be clear, it will be lost inside of our book of business. It becomes part of our C&I balance.

但需要明確的是，它會消失在我們的業務範圍內。它成為我們 C&I 平衡的一部分。

Completely understood. The second question I had, Bill, is you mentioned in a higher long-form environment, we got to see what the Fed does in terms of where deposit betas and mix goes. On the asset side, however, though, can you help us understand what happens in terms of fixed rate loan repricing versus -- and how much you might still have left in that versus obviously when we get to a peak in Fed funds, we'll know that the variable rates will have gotten there.

完全明白了。比爾，我的第二個問題是你在更高的長期環境中提到的，我們必須看看聯準會在存款貝塔和組合方面做了什麼。然而，在資產方面，您能否幫助我們了解固定利率貸款重新定價與固定利率貸款重新定價方面會發生什麼，以及當我們達到聯邦基金的峰值時，您可能還剩下多少錢，我們'你就會知道可變利率將會到達那裡。

Yes. So we have I mean, beyond our securities book and swaps, which obviously we will reprice over the next several years, we have -- I don't know the percentage off the top of my head, percentage of our loan book, either fixed rate to begin with, think of an auto loan or with swaps on top of it, floating rate loan, we swapped to fixed. And those fixed rate loans and swaps are shorter duration typically than what we have in the securities book.

是的。所以我的意思是，除了我們的證券帳簿和掉期（顯然我們將在未來幾年內重新定價）之外，我們還有——我不知道我腦子裡的百分比，我們的貸款帳簿的百分比，或者是固定的首先，考慮汽車貸款或除此之外的掉期利率，即浮動利率貸款，我們將其轉換為固定利率。這些固定利率貸款和掉期的期限通常比我們在證券帳簿中的期限短。

And there's a lot of dry powder there that will reprice. We are back to this notion that, "Hey, we're out there competing and growing this company." We will be originating those loans as they reprice. We're not dumping assets and getting out of things. It's going to shrink the total volume that's on our book.

而且那裡有很多乾粉會重新定價。我們又回到了這樣的觀念：“嘿，我們正在競爭並發展這家公司。”我們將在這些貸款重新定價時發放這些貸款。我們不會拋售資產並擺脫困境。這將會減少我們書本的總體積。

Yes. No. Totally understand. I would think it would be a net positive as an offset to whatever has happened.

是的。不，完全明白。我認為這將是一個淨積極的結果，可以抵消所發生的一切。

A little bit. You have the competing parts, right? We're going to have repricing of fixed rate assets, fighting reprices of our liabilities. At some point, that's going to cross and banks are going to grow NII at high percentages. I just can't tell you when that is yet, and we haven't done our budget next year.

一點點。你有競爭的部分，對嗎？我們將對固定利率資產進行重新定價，以對抗負債的重新定價。在某個時候，這種情況將會發生交叉，銀行的NII將會以高百分比成長。我只是還不能告訴你那是什麼時候，而且我們還沒完成明年的預算。

Yes, that's fair.

是的，這很公平。

And there are no further questions on the phone lines at this time.

目前電話線路上沒有進一步的問題。

Okay. Well, thank you. Thanks for participating. If you have any follow-up questions, please feel free to reach out to the IR team.

好的。嗯，謝謝。感謝您的參與。如果您有任何後續問題，請隨時聯絡 IR 團隊。

Thanks.

謝謝。

That does conclude the conference call for today, and we do thank you for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束，我們非常感謝您的參與。