PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to today's conference call for the PNC Financial Services Group. Participating on this call are PNC's Chairman, President and CEO, Bill Demchak; and Rob Reilly, Executive Vice President and CFO.

早上好，歡迎參加今天 PNC 金融服務集團的電話會議。參加此次電話會議的有 PNC 董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Bill Demchak；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Rob Reilly。

Today's presentation contains forward-looking information. Cautionary statements about this information as well as reconciliations of non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release materials as well as our SEC filings and other investor materials. These are all available on our corporate website, pnc.com, under Investor Relations. These statements speak only as of April 14, 2023, and PNC undertakes no obligation to update them.

今天的演示文稿包含前瞻性信息。有關此信息的警告聲明以及非 GAAP 措施的對賬包含在今天的收益發布材料以及我們的 SEC 文件和其他投資者材料中。這些都可以在我們的公司網站 pnc.com 的投資者關係下找到。這些聲明僅在 2023 年 4 月 14 日生效，PNC 不承擔更新它們的義務。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bill.

現在我想把電話轉給比爾。

Thank you, Bryan, and good morning, everybody. As you can see on the slide, our quarterly results were strong, and we reported $1.7 billion in net income or $3.98 per share. Inside of this, we grew deposits and loans, increased our capital and liquidity positions, generated positive operating leverage and maintained strong credit quality.

謝謝你，布萊恩，大家早上好。正如您在幻燈片中看到的那樣，我們的季度業績表現強勁，我們報告的淨收入為 17 億美元或每股 3.98 美元。在這方面，我們增加了存款和貸款，增加了我們的資本和流動性頭寸，產生了積極的經營槓桿並保持了強勁的信貸質量。

For the past month, we've seen market volatility across the broader industry. And while we take this situation seriously and are closely monitoring the environment, it's important to note that these events have taken place within a few banks with very unique business models. Inside of our company, we really haven't seen any meaningful impacts from the events of the past month. Our balance sheet remains strong and stable, and we are operating the company in the same way we were at the beginning of March.

在過去的一個月裡，我們看到了整個行業的市場波動。雖然我們認真對待這種情況並密切監視環境，但重要的是要注意這些事件發生在少數具有非常獨特商業模式的銀行中。在我們公司內部，我們真的沒有看到過去一個月的事件產生任何有意義的影響。我們的資產負債表保持強勁和穩定，我們以與 3 月初相同的方式運營公司。

Ultimately, over time, we expect the dynamics playing out in the banking system today to contribute to changes in the competitive landscape. And while it's still early innings, we believe that PNC will be a beneficiary from this process.

最終，隨著時間的推移，我們預計當今銀行系統中發生的動態將有助於競爭格局的變化。雖然現在還處於早期階段，但我們相信 PNC 將成為這一過程的受益者。

That said, in the near term, we're not immune to the competitive environment and the deposit dynamics that will ultimately impact our NII in the near term, and Rob is going to cover that in more detail in a second. We remain focused on growing relationships across our lines of business, and we continue to execute on key priorities, including the expansion in the BBVA legacy markets.

也就是說，在短期內，我們不能倖免於競爭環境和最終會在短期內影響我們的 NII 的存款動態，Rob 將在一秒鐘內更詳細地介紹這一點。我們仍然專注於在我們的業務範圍內發展關係，我們繼續執行關鍵優先事項，包括在 BBVA 遺留市場的擴張。

Rob will provide more details on our financial performance in a moment. However, for this particular call, he'll review our first quarter earnings in a slightly condensed manner to allow time to also cover key balance sheet focus points that have been top of mind for our investors in the last couple of weeks. And of course, following that, we'll be able to discuss your specific questions in the Q&A segment.

Rob 稍後將提供有關我們財務業績的更多詳細信息。然而，對於這次特別的電話會議，他將以一種略微簡潔的方式回顧我們第一季度的收益，以便有時間也涵蓋過去幾週投資者最關心的關鍵資產負債表重點。當然，在此之後，我們將能夠在問答環節中討論您的具體問題。

Finally, I'd like to thank our 61,000 employees for helping deliver a strong quarter and everything they do to support our customers.

最後，我要感謝我們的 61,000 名員工幫助實現了一個強勁的季度，以及他們為支持我們的客戶所做的一切。

Now with that, I'll turn it over to Rob.

現在，我將把它交給 Rob。

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Our balance sheet is on Slide 4 and is presented on an average basis. Loans for the first quarter were $326 billion, an increase of $3.6 billion or 1% linked quarter. Investment securities were relatively stable at $143 billion. Cash balances at the Federal Reserve averaged $34 billion and increased $4 billion during the quarter.

謝謝，比爾，大家早上好。我們的資產負債表在幻燈片 4 上，按平均數顯示。第一季度的貸款為 3260 億美元，環比增加 36 億美元或 1%。投資證券相對穩定，為 1,430 億美元。美聯儲的現金餘額平均為 340 億美元，本季度增加了 40 億美元。

Deposits of $436 billion grew on both, a spot and average basis linked quarter. Average borrowed funds increased $4 billion, which reflected fourth quarter 2022 activity as well as senior note issuances in January of this year.

即期和平均相關季度的存款均增長了 4,360 億美元。平均借入資金增加 40 億美元，這反映了 2022 年第四季度的活動以及今年 1 月的優先票據發行。

At quarter end, our tangible book value was $76.90 per common share, an increase of 7% linked quarter. And we remain well capitalized with an estimated CET1 ratio of 9.2% as of March 31, 2023. During the quarter, we returned $1 billion of capital to shareholders which included $600 million of common dividends and approximately $370 million of share repurchases or 2.4 million shares.

季度末，我們的有形賬面價值為每股普通股 76.90 美元，環比增長 7%。截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日，我們的資本充足率估計為 9.2%。本季度，我們向股東返還了 10 億美元的資本，其中包括 6 億美元的普通股息和約 3.7 億美元的股票回購或 240 萬股股票.

Due to market conditions and increased economic uncertainty, we expect to reduce our share repurchase activity in the second quarter. And of course, we'll continue to monitor this and may adjust share repurchase activity as appropriate.

由於市場狀況和經濟不確定性增加，我們預計第二季度將減少股票回購活動。當然，我們將繼續對此進行監控，並可能會酌情調整股票回購活動。

Slide 5 shows our loans and deposits in more detail. During the first quarter, loan balances averaged $326 billion, an increase of $4 billion or 1%, largely reflecting the full quarter impact of growth in the fourth quarter of 2022. Deposits averaged $436 billion in the first quarter, increasing $1.3 billion.

幻燈片 5 更詳細地顯示了我們的貸款和存款。第一季度，貸款餘額平均為 3260 億美元，增加 40 億美元或 1%，主要反映了 2022 年第四季度增長對整個季度的影響。第一季度存款平均為 4360 億美元，增加 13 億美元。

We continue to see a mix shift from noninterest-bearing to interest-bearing, and I will cover that in more detail in a few minutes. Our rate paid on interest-bearing deposits has increased to 1.66% during the first quarter from 1.07% in the fourth quarter of 2022. And as of March 31, our cumulative deposit beta was 35%.

我們繼續看到從無息到有息的混合轉變，我將在幾分鐘內更詳細地介紹這一點。我們的計息存款利率已從 2022 年第四季度的 1.07% 上升至第一季度的 1.66%。截至 3 月 31 日，我們的累計存款貝塔率為 35%。

Turning to the income statement on Slide 6. As you can see, first quarter 2023 reported net income was $1.7 billion or $3.98 per share. Total revenues of $5.6 billion decreased to $160 million compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. Net interest income decreased $99 million or 3% primarily driven by 2 fewer days in the quarter and higher funding costs, partially offset by higher yields on interest-earning assets.

轉到幻燈片 6 的損益表。如您所見，2023 年第一季度報告的淨收入為 17 億美元或每股 3.98 美元。與 2022 年第四季度相比，總收入從 56 億美元減少到 1.6 億美元。淨利息收入減少 9900 萬美元或 3%，這主要是由於本季度減少了 2 天和融資成本增加，部分被生息資產收益率提高所抵消.

Our net interest margin of 2.84%, declined 8 basis points reflecting the increased funding costs, I just mentioned. Noninterest income also declined 3% or $61 million as growth in asset management and brokerage was more than offset by a general slowdown in capital markets activity as well as seasonally lower consumer transaction volumes.

我剛才提到，我們的淨息差為 2.84%，下降了 8 個基點，反映了融資成本的增加。非利息收入也下降了 3% 或 6,100 萬美元，原因是資產管理和經紀業務的增長被資本市場活動普遍放緩以及消費者交易量季節性下降所抵消。

First quarter expenses declined $153 million or 4% linked quarter, even after accounting for the increase to the FDIC's deposit assessment rate which equated to $25 million. Provision was $235 million in the first quarter and included the impact of updated economic assumptions as well as changes in portfolio composition and quality. And our effective tax rate was 17.2%.

第一季度支出下降 1.53 億美元或環比下降 4%，即使考慮到 FDIC 的存款評估利率增加 2500 萬美元之後也是如此。第一季度的準備金為 2.35 億美元，其中包括更新的經濟假設的影響以及投資組合構成和質量的變化。我們的有效稅率為 17.2%。

Turning to Slide 7. We highlight our revenue and expense trends. As a result of our diversified revenue streams and expense management efforts, we generated positive operating leverage of 2% linked quarter and 15% compared to the same period a year ago. And as we previously stated, we have a goal to reduce costs by $400 million in 2023 through our continuous improvement program, and we're confident we will achieve our full year target. And as you know, this program funds a significant portion of our ongoing business [in] technology investments.

轉到幻燈片 7。我們強調了我們的收入和支出趨勢。由於我們多元化的收入流和費用管理努力，我們產生了 2% 的關聯季度和 15% 的積極運營槓桿，與去年同期相比。正如我們之前所說，我們的目標是通過持續改進計劃在 2023 年將成本降低 4 億美元，我們有信心實現全年目標。如您所知，該計劃為我們正在進行的業務 [in] 技術投資提供了很大一部分資金。

Our credit metrics are presented on Slide 8. Nonperforming loans remained stable at $2 billion and continue to represent less than 1% of total loans. Total delinquencies of $1.3 billion declined $164 million or 11% linked quarter. Notably, the delinquency rate of 41 basis points is our lowest level in over a decade.

我們的信用指標顯示在幻燈片 8 中。不良貸款穩定在 20 億美元，繼續佔貸款總額的不到 1%。拖欠總額為 13 億美元，環比下降 1.64 億美元或 11%。值得注意的是，41 個基點的拖欠率是我們十多年來的最低水平。

Net charge-offs were $195 million, a decrease of $29 million linked quarter. Our annualized net charge-offs to average loans ratio was 24 basis points in the first quarter. And our allowance for credit losses totaled $5.4 billion or 1.7% of total loans on March 31, essentially stable with year-end 2022.

淨註銷額為 1.95 億美元，環比季度減少 2900 萬美元。我們第一季度的年化淨註銷與平均貸款比率為 24 個基點。截至 3 月 31 日，我們的信貸損失準備金總計 54 億美元，佔貸款總額的 1.7%，與 2022 年底基本持平。

Before I provide an update on our forward guidance, as Bill mentioned, we want to take a deeper dive into some of the key balance sheet items that are top of mind in the current environment related to deposits, securities and swaps, capital and liquidity, and the impact of potential regulatory changes, and finally, office exposure within our commercial portfolio.

在我更新我們的前瞻性指引之前，正如 Bill 提到的那樣，我們希望更深入地研究當前環境中與存款、證券和掉期、資本和流動性相關的一些關鍵資產負債表項目，以及潛在監管變化的影響，最後是我們商業投資組合中的辦公室風險。

In our view, we believe we're well positioned across all these key areas of focus.

我們認為，我們相信我們在所有這些重點關注領域都處於有利地位。

Turning to Slide 10. Our $437 billion deposit base is broken down between consumer and commercial categories to give you a view of the composition and granularity of the portfolio. At the end of the first quarter, our deposits were 53% consumer and 47% commercial. Inside of our $230 billion of consumer deposits, approximately 90% are FDIC insured. The portfolio is very granular with an average account balance of approximately $11,500 across nearly 20 million accounts throughout our coast-to-coast franchise.

轉到幻燈片 10。我們將 4370 億美元的存款基數分為消費類和商業類，讓您了解投資組合的構成和粒度。在第一季度末，我們的存款中有 53% 是個人存款，47% 是商業存款。在我們 2300 億美元的消費者存款中，大約 90% 由 FDIC 投保。該投資組合非常精細，在我們從東海岸到西海岸的特許經營權中，近 2000 萬個賬戶的平均賬戶餘額約為 11,500 美元。

Our $207 billion of commercial deposits are 20% insured, but importantly, approximately 95% of the total balances are held in operating and relationship accounts. These include deposits held as compensating balances to pay for treasury management fees, escrow deposits at Midland loan services and broader relationship accounts, all of which tend to provide more stability than deposit-only accounts.

我們 2070 億美元的商業存款有 20% 受保，但重要的是，總餘額的大約 95% 存放在運營和關係賬戶中。這些包括作為補償餘額持有的存款以支付財務管理費、米德蘭貸款服務的託管存款和更廣泛的關係賬戶，所有這些往往比存款賬戶提供更高的穩定性。

Importantly, we have approximately 1.4 million commercial deposit accounts, representing a diverse set of industries and geographies.

重要的是，我們擁有大約 140 萬個商業存款賬戶，代表了不同的行業和地區。

Turning to Slide 11. We highlight our mix of noninterest-bearing and interest-bearing deposits. Our consumer deposits, noninterest-bearing mix has been stable, remaining at 10% compared to the same period a year ago. The commercial side is where we expected to see a continued shift from noninterest-bearing into interest-bearing deposits as rates have risen and that has played out, albeit at a somewhat faster pace than we had expected.

轉到幻燈片 11。我們強調我們的無息和有息存款組合。我們的消費存款、無息存款組合一直穩定，與去年同期相比保持在 10%。在商業方面，我們預計隨著利率上升而繼續從無息存款轉向有息存款，而且這種情況已經發生，儘管速度比我們預期的要快一些。

The commercial noninterest-bearing portion of total deposits was 45% as of March 31, down from 58% a year ago. Importantly, commercial noninterest-bearing deposits include the compensating balances and Midland escrow deposits, I mentioned previously, which provides support to this mix through time. On a consolidated basis, our level of noninterest-bearing deposits was 27% at the end of the first quarter of 2023, down from 33% a year ago. PNC has historically operated with a higher percentage of noninterest-bearing deposits relative to the banking industry due in part to the strength of our treasury management business and granular deposit base.

截至 3 月 31 日，商業無息存款佔總存款的 45%，低於一年前的 58%。重要的是，商業無息存款包括補償餘額和米德蘭託管存款，我之前提到過，它們隨著時間的推移為這種組合提供支持。在綜合基礎上，我們的無息存款水平在 2023 年第一季度末為 27%，低於一年前的 33%。歷史上，PNC 的無息存款比例高於銀行業，部分原因是我們的資金管理業務實力雄厚，存款基礎精細。

As a result, we expect our noninterest-bearing portion of deposits to continue to exceed industry averages, and approach the mid-20% range by year-end 2023. In addition to our mix shift, we have seen a faster increase in our deposit cost this year as the Federal Reserve has continued to raise short-term interest rates.

因此，我們預計我們存款的無息部分將繼續超過行業平均水平，並在 2023 年底前接近 20% 的中間範圍。除了我們的結構轉變外，我們還看到我們的存款增長更快今年以來，隨著美聯儲不斷提高短期利率。

Slide 12 shows our recent trends and our current expectations for deposit betas through the end of 2023. The increase in our current deposit beta expectations are largely driven by recent events that have increased the intensity and focus on rates paid and ultimately, has added incremental pricing pressure sooner than we previously expected.

幻燈片 12 顯示了我們最近的趨勢和我們目前對到 2023 年底的存款貝塔係數的預期。我們當前的存款貝塔係數預期的增加主要是由最近的事件推動的，這些事件增加了對支付利率的強度和關注，並最終增加了增量定價壓力比我們之前預期的要早。

We expect the Federal Reserve to raise the benchmark rate by 25 basis points in May. This, coupled with heightened competition for deposits, has accelerated our expectations to the level and pace of beta increase. And we now expect to reach a terminal beta of 42% by year-end.

我們預計美聯儲將在 5 月份將基準利率上調 25 個基點。這一點，再加上對存款的競爭加劇，加速了我們對貝塔增長水平和速度的預期。我們現在預計到年底將達到 42% 的最終貝塔值。

Slide 13 details our investment securities and swap portfolios. Our securities balance averaged $143 billion in the first quarter and were relatively stable linked quarter. The yield on our securities portfolio increased 13 basis points to 2.49%, as we continue to replace runoff at higher reinvestment rates. Yields on new purchases during the quarter exceeded 4.75%.

幻燈片 13 詳細介紹了我們的投資證券和掉期投資組合。我們的證券餘額在第一季度平均為 1430 億美元，並且是相對穩定的相關季度。我們的證券投資組合的收益率增加了 13 個基點，達到 2.49%，因為我們繼續以更高的再投資利率取代徑流。本季度新採購的收益率超過 4.75%。

Our portfolio is high quality and positioned with a short duration of 4.3 years, meaningfully shorter than many of our peers. Approximately 2/3 of our securities are recorded as held to maturity, and 1/3 is available for sale. Average security balances represent approximately 28% of interest-earning assets.

我們的投資組合質量高，期限短，僅為 4.3 年，比我們的許多同行短得多。我們大約 2/3 的證券記錄為持有至到期，1/3 可供出售。平均證券餘額約占生息資產的 28%。

Our Received Fixed Swaps pointing to the loan book remained largely stable at $42 billion in notional value and 2.25-year duration. At the end of the first quarter, our accumulated other comprehensive loss improved by $1.1 billion or 10% to $9.1 billion, driven by the impact of lower interest rates during the quarter and normal accretion as the securities and swaps pulled apart.

我們收到的指向貸款賬簿的固定掉期利率基本穩定在 420 億美元的名義價值和 2.25 年的期限。在第一季度末，我們的累計其他綜合虧損減少了 11 億美元或 10%，達到 91 億美元，這是受到本季度較低利率的影響以及證券和掉期分離導致的正常增長的影響。

Slide 14 highlights the pace of expected security and swap maturities as well as the related AOCI runoff. By the end of 2024, we expect about 26% of our securities and swaps to roll off. This will drive increases in our securities and commercial loan yields as well as meaningful tangible book value improvement as we expect approximately 40% AOCI accretion by the end of year 2024.

幻燈片 14 強調了預期證券和互換到期日的步伐以及相關的 AOCI 徑流。到 2024 年底，我們預計我們約有 26% 的證券和掉期交易會減少。這將推動我們的證券和商業貸款收益率的增加以及有意義的有形賬面價值改善，因為我們預計到 2024 年底 AOCI 將增加約 40%。

Slide 15 highlights our strong liquidity position. Our strong liquidity coverage ratios continued to improve in the first quarter and exceeded regulatory requirements throughout the quarter. Our cash balance is at the Federal Reserve totaled $34 billion, and we maintained substantial unused borrowing capacity and flexibility through other funding sources.

幻燈片 15 突出了我們強大的流動性狀況。我們強勁的流動性覆蓋率在第一季度繼續改善，整個季度都超過了監管要求。我們在美聯儲的現金餘額總計 340 億美元，我們通過其他資金來源保持了大量未使用的借貸能力和靈活性。

PNC has a robust liquidity management process, which includes a required statutory daily liquidity coverage ratio assessment as well as a monthly net stable funding ratio calculation. In addition, we performed monthly internal liquidity stress testing that covers a range of time horizons as well as systemic and idiosyncratic stress scenarios. Our mix of borrowed funds to total liabilities has historically averaged approximately 17% and reached an unprecedented low level of 6% in 2021.

PNC 擁有穩健的流動性管理流程，包括法定的每日流動性覆蓋率評估以及月度淨穩定資金比率計算。此外，我們每月進行內部流動性壓力測試，涵蓋一系列時間範圍以及系統性和特殊壓力情景。我們的借入資金佔總負債的比例歷來平均約為 17%，並在 2021 年達到了前所未有的低水平 6%。

On March 31, our mix was 12%, and we expect to move closer to the historical average over time. In light of the current environment, we anticipate that we will be subject to a total loss absorbing capacity requirement in some form and at some point, with a reasonable phase-in period. Importantly, as our borrowed funds continue to return to a more normalized level, we would expect to be compliant through our current issuance plans under existing TLAC requirements.

3 月 31 日，我們的混合比例為 12%，我們預計隨著時間的推移會接近歷史平均水平。鑑於當前的環境，我們預計我們將以某種形式在某個時間點滿足總損失吸收能力的要求，並有一個合理的逐步實施期。重要的是，隨著我們的借入資金繼續恢復到更正常的水平，我們預計將根據現有的 TLAC 要求通過我們當前的發行計劃來合規。

Slide 16 shows our solid capital position with an estimated CET1 ratio of 9.2% at quarter end. As a Category 3 institution, we don't include AOCI in our CET1 ratio, but I understand why there is focus on this ratio with the inclusion of AOCI. As of March 31, 2023, our CET1 ratio, including AOCI, was estimated to be 7.5%, which remains above our 7.4% required level, taking into account our current stress capital buffer. However, we also believe it's important to take a look at the balance sheet positioning of the bank from a market value of equity perspective, similar to our understanding of Basel IRRBB rules.

幻燈片 16 顯示了我們穩健的資本狀況，季度末 CET1 比率估計為 9.2%。作為第 3 類機構，我們的 CET1 比率中不包括 AOCI，但我理解為什麼在包含 AOCI 的情況下關注這個比率。截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日，考慮到我們當前的壓力資本緩衝，我們的 CET1 比率（包括 AOCI）估計為 7.5%，仍高於我們 7.4% 的要求水平。然而，我們也認為從股權市場價值的角度來審視銀行的資產負債表定位很重要，類似於我們對巴塞爾 IRRBB 規則的理解。

Market value of equity doesn't truly get reflected on the balance sheet today due to generally accepted accounting principles, which results in a skewed approach valuating certain items primarily on the asset side. While AOCI takes into account the current valuation of the securities and certain portions of our swap portfolios, it does not account for the valuation of the deposit book which can be a meaningful offset in a rising interest rate environment.

由於普遍接受的會計原則，目前股權的市場價值並未真正反映在資產負債表上，這導致主要在資產方面對某些項目進行估值的方法存在偏差。雖然 AOCI 考慮了證券的當前估值和我們掉期投資組合的某些部分，但它沒有考慮存款簿的估值，這可以在利率上升的環境中進行有意義的抵消。

In fact, looking at PNC's change in market value of equity over the past year, the increase in the market value of our deposits and the rapidly rising interest rate environment has significantly outpaced all unrealized losses on the asset side of the balance sheet, including securities and fixed rate loans.

事實上，從 PNC 過去一年的股權市值變化來看，我們存款市值的增長和快速上升的利率環境已經大大超過了資產負債表資產端的所有未實現損失，包括證券和固定利率貸款。

Total market value of equity increased substantially in the rising rate environment, and further, our duration of equity is now essentially 0 and well positioned in the current environment. Importantly, our models use conservative assumptions regarding estimates for betas, mix, balances and deposit (inaudible). We also recognized early on that large inflows of deposits during the pandemic were driven by a combination of QE and fiscal stimulus, which were likely to be short-lived. Recall our Fed balances peaked in the first quarter of 2021 around $86 billion.

在利率上升的環境下，股票的總市值大幅增加，此外，我們的股票久期現在基本上為 0，在當前環境下處於有利地位。重要的是，我們的模型使用關於貝塔係數、組合、餘額和存款（聽不清）估計的保守假設。我們也很早就認識到，大流行期間存款大量流入是由量化寬鬆和財政刺激共同推動的，這很可能是短暫的。回想一下，我們的美聯儲餘額在 2021 年第一季度達到頂峰，約為 860 億美元。

As a result, we modeled an economic value associated with those deposits at a fraction of the value of core deposits.

因此，我們將與這些存款相關的經濟價值建模為核心存款價值的一小部分。

Turning to Slide 17. I wanted to spend a few minutes talking about our commercial real estate portfolio. While credit quality is strong across the majority of our CRE book, office is a segment receiving a lot of attention in this environment due to the shift to remote work and higher interest rates. So we thought it would be worthwhile to highlight our exposure and our position with this portfolio.

轉到幻燈片 17。我想花幾分鐘時間談談我們的商業房地產投資組合。雖然我們大部分 CRE 賬簿的信用質量都很高，但由於轉向遠程工作和更高的利率，辦公室是在這種環境下受到很多關注的一個部分。因此，我們認為有必要強調我們的風險敞口和我們在該投資組合中的地位。

At the end of the first quarter, we had $8.9 billion or 2.7% of our total loans in our office portfolio.

在第一季度末，我們的辦公室投資組合中有 89 億美元，占我們貸款總額的 2.7%。

Turning to Slide 18. You can see the composition of this portfolio, which is well diversified across geography, tenant type and property classification. Reserves against these loans, which we have built over several quarters, now totaled 7.1%, a level that we believe adequately covers expected losses. In regard to our underwriting approach, we adhere to conservative standards, focus on attractive markets and work with experienced, well-capitalized sponsors. The office portfolio was originated with an approximate loan to value of 55% to 60%, and a significant majority of those properties are defined as Class A.

轉到幻燈片 18。您可以看到該投資組合的構成，在地理、租戶類型和財產分類方面非常多樣化。我們在幾個季度內建立起來的這些貸款準備金現在總計 7.1%，我們認為這一水平足以彌補預期損失。關於我們的承銷方式，我們堅持保守的標準，專注於有吸引力的市場，並與經驗豐富、資本充足的發起人合作。寫字樓組合起源於價值約為 55% 至 60% 的貸款，其中絕大部分被定義為 A 類。

We have a highly experienced team that is reviewing each asset in the portfolio to set appropriate action plans and test reserve adequacy. We don't solely rely on third-party appraisals, which will naturally be slow to adjust to the rapidly shifting market conditions. Rather, we are stress testing property performance to set realistic expectations. To appropriately sensitize our portfolio, we've significantly discounted net operating income levels and property values across the entire office book. Additionally, tenant retention, build-out costs and concession levels are all updated to accurately reflect market conditions.

我們擁有一支經驗豐富的團隊，正在審查投資組合中的每項資產，以製定適當的行動計劃並測試儲備充足性。我們不完全依賴第三方評估，第三方評估自然會很慢地適應快速變化的市場條件。相反，我們正在對物業性能進行壓力測試，以設定切合實際的期望。為了適當地提高我們投資組合的敏感性，我們對整個辦公賬簿的淨營業收入水平和財產價值進行了大幅貼現。此外，租戶保留率、擴建成本和特許權水平都會更新，以準確反映市場狀況。

Credit quality in our office portfolio remains strong today with only 0.2% of loans delinquent, 3.5% nonperforming and a net charge-off rate of 47 basis points over the last 12 months. Along those lines, we continue to see solid performance within the single tenant, medical and government loans, which represent 40% of our total office portfolio. These have occupancy levels above 90% and (inaudible) levels of 3% or less. Where we do see increasing stress and a rising level of criticized assets, is in our multi-tenant loans, which represents 58% of our office portfolio. Multi-tenant loans are currently running in the mid-70% occupancy range. (inaudible) levels are greater than 30% and 60% of the portfolio is scheduled to mature by the end of 2024.

今天，我們寫字樓投資組合的信用質量依然強勁，過去 12 個月中只有 0.2% 的貸款拖欠，3.5% 的不良貸款和 47 個基點的淨註銷率。沿著這些思路，我們繼續看到單一租戶、醫療和政府貸款的穩健表現，這些貸款占我們辦公室總投資組合的 40%。它們的入住率高於 90%，（聽不清）為 3% 或更低。我們確實看到壓力越來越大和受到批評的資產水平不斷上升的地方是我們的多租戶貸款，占我們辦公室投資組合的 58%。多租戶貸款目前的入住率在 70% 左右。 （聽不清）水平超過 30%，60% 的投資組合計劃到 2024 年底到期。

In the near term, this is our primary concern area as it relates to expected losses and by extension, comprises the largest portion of our office reserves. Multi-tenant reserves on a stand-alone basis are 9.4%. Obviously, we'll continue to monitor and review our assumptions to ensure they reflect real-time market conditions.

在短期內，這是我們主要關注的領域，因為它與預期損失有關，並且推而廣之，占我們辦公室儲備金的最大部分。獨立基礎上的多租戶儲備為 9.4%。顯然，我們將繼續監控和審查我們的假設，以確保它們反映實時市場狀況。

For each of the key areas of focus, I just discussed, we believe we are well positioned. And Slide 19 summarizes our balance sheet strength during this volatile time. Our deposits are up, our capital and liquidity positions are strong, and our overall credit quality is solid.

對於我剛才討論的每個重點關注領域，我們相信我們已經做好了準備。幻燈片 19 總結了我們在這個動盪時期的資產負債表實力。我們的存款增加了，我們的資本和流動性狀況良好，我們的整體信用質量也很穩固。

In summary, PNC reported a strong first quarter 2023. In regard to our view of the overall economy, we are expecting a recession starting in the second half of 2023, resulting in a 1% decline in real GDP. Our rate path assumption includes a 25-basis point increase in the Fed funds rate in May. Following that, we expect the Fed to pause rate actions until early 2024, when we expect a 25-basis point cut.

總而言之，PNC 報告了 2023 年第一季度的強勁表現。關於我們對整體經濟的看法，我們預計經濟衰退將從 2023 年下半年開始，導致實際 GDP 下降 1%。我們的利率路徑假設包括 5 月份聯邦基金利率上調 25 個基點。之後，我們預計美聯儲將暫停利率行動直到 2024 年初，屆時我們預計將降息 25 個基點。

Looking ahead, our outlook for full year 2023 compared to 2022 results is as follows. We expect spot loan growth of 1% to 3%, which equates to average loan growth of 5% to 7%. Total revenue growth to be up 4% to 5%. Inside of that, our expectation is for net interest income to be up 6% to 8%.

展望未來，我們對 2023 年全年與 2022 年業績的展望如下。我們預計即期貸款增長 1% 至 3%，相當於平均貸款增長 5% 至 7%。總收入增長將達 4% 至 5%。其中，我們預計淨利息收入將增長 6% 至 8%。

At this point, visibility remains challenging, and our full year NII guidance assumes the continuation of the recent intensity on deposit pricing, which is being driven by recent events. We expect noninterest income to be stable, expenses to be up 2% to 3%, and we expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 18%.

在這一點上，可見性仍然具有挑戰性，我們的全年 NII 指導假設近期存款定價的強度將持續，這是由最近的事件驅動的。我們預計非利息收入將保持穩定，支出將增長 2% 至 3%，我們預計我們的有效稅率約為 18%。

Based on this guidance, we expect we will generate positive operating leverage in 2023. Looking at the second quarter of 2023 compared to the first quarter of 2023, we expect average loans to be stable, net interest income to be down 2% to 4%, fee income to be stable to down 1%. Other noninterest income to be between $200 million and $250 million excluding net securities and Visa activity.

根據這一指引，我們預計我們將在 2023 年產生積極的經營槓桿。與 2023 年第一季度相比，2023 年第二季度，我們預計平均貸款將保持穩定，淨利息收入將下降 2% 至 4% ，手續費收入穩定下降1%。其他非利息收入在 2 億至 2.5 億美元之間，不包括淨證券和 Visa 活動。

Taking all the component pieces, we expect total revenue to decline approximately 3%. We expect total noninterest expense to be up 1% to 2%, and we expect second quarter net charge-offs to be between $200 million and $250 million. Further, given our strong credit metrics, our credit quality is trending better than our expectations. And with that, Bill and I are ready to take your questions.

考慮到所有組成部分，我們預計總收入將下降約 3%。我們預計非利息總支出將增長 1% 至 2%，我們預計第二季度的淨沖銷將在 2 億美元至 2.5 億美元之間。此外，鑑於我們強大的信用指標，我們的信用質量趨勢好於我們的預期。說到這裡，比爾和我準備好回答你們的問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Betsy Graseck 與摩根士丹利的合作。

First off, I just want to say, your slide deck is phenomenal. I just -- you answered so many of the questions that I had coming into this, I felt like you were reading my mind ahead of this call.

首先，我只想說，您的幻燈片非常棒。我只是 - 你回答了我提出的很多問題，我覺得你在打這個電話之前就讀懂了我的想法。

Could have been, yes. Thank you, the team did a nice job putting that together. Thank you for recognizing that.

可能是，是的。謝謝，團隊在整合方面做得很好。感謝您認識到這一點。

No, it was great. You guys -- this is a great job. I have 2 questions. One is on the beta, the deposit beta. When you're talking about the 42%, obviously, that is aligned with the outlook that you just expressed for interest rate movements. I guess I wanted to just understand how you're thinking about the flex between deposit beta and deposit growth, because part of me says, "Hey, I could have expected even more deposit growth than you gave me, QQ." and is there a rate paid element to that, that maybe you're holding back on and that's why the deposits weren't maybe as high as what some folks like me had hoped.

不，這很棒。你們 - 這是一份很棒的工作。我有兩個問題。一個是在測試版上，即存款測試版。當你談論 42% 時，顯然，這與你剛剛表達的利率變動前景一致。我想我只是想了解你是如何看待存款貝塔和存款增長之間的彈性的，因為我的一部分說，“嘿，我本可以預期比你給我的存款增長更多，QQ。”並且是否有支付利率的因素，也許你正在推遲，這就是為什麼存款可能沒有像我這樣的一些人所希望的那樣高。

We're sitting here puzzled. We grew deposits average and spot against a backdrop of absent the volatility in the market deposit still overall leaving the system, particularly in the government money funds and then the shrinkage of the total -- on above QT. Our rate paid -- if you look year-on-year, I think our total deposits are down 3% or something, which is less than most anybody would compare to. And we have purposefully been protecting the franchise in the course of doing that, I recognize some other people don't do that, and that's -- we'll see how that plays out through time. But we kind of feel we outperformed on deposits, so a little bit in the first quarter, yes.

我們坐在這裡感到困惑。在市場存款沒有波動的背景下，我們增加了平均存款和現貨存款，但仍總體上離開了系統，特別是在政府貨幣基金中，然後總量縮水——高於 QT。我們支付的利率——如果你按年看，我認為我們的總存款下降了 3% 左右，這比大多數人所能比較的要少。在這樣做的過程中，我們一直有目的地保護特許經營權，我認識到其他一些人不這樣做，那就是 - 我們將看到它如何隨著時間的推移發揮作用。但我們有點覺得我們在存款方面表現出色，所以在第一季度有一點，是的。

Yes. No, I QQ definitely, and I would expect after all of the banks finish reporting, we can have a better conversation on this. I was just wondering if you felt that if you had a slightly higher rate paid, would you have pulled in more? And I suppose the way you answered that question is you don't feel the need to. So that's great.

是的。不，我肯定是QQ，我希望在所有銀行完成報告後，我們可以就此進行更好的對話。我只是想知道你是否覺得如果你支付的利率稍微高一點，你會賺得更多嗎？我想你回答這個問題的方式是你覺得沒有必要。那太好了。

And then just separately, as a fallout of what has happened with (inaudible) signature, et cetera, do you feel like there's any need at all to reassess the duration of the commercial operating account deposit liability, life. Is that something that having seen what happened at (inaudible) you would want to take a closer look at? Or do you feel like it's just such a different animal given what you outlined on Slide 10 with the granularity you've got.

然後，作為（聽不清）簽名等事件的後果，你是否覺得有必要重新評估商業運營賬戶存款責任的期限、壽命。看到發生在（聽不清）的事情后，您是否想仔細看看？或者，考慮到您在幻燈片 10 上概述的內容以及您所擁有的粒度，您是否覺得它只是一種不同的動物。

Well, first of all, we look at that all the time. And as Rob put into his comments, a large portion of the deposit growth that we saw through COVID, so stimulus in the growth in the Fed's balance sheet. We just assumed had a life of a day, 0, because we're in an abnormal period of time. The core operating deposits that we have, particularly as you go in the middle market, are basically the monies -- the working capital monies that companies use to run their companies. We truncate and always have truncated the modeled lives of those deposits well below what the practical experience would show us, yes. So it's conservative.

好吧，首先，我們一直在關注這一點。正如 Rob 在他的評論中所說，我們通過 COVID 看到的很大一部分存款增長，因此刺激了美聯儲資產負債表的增長。我們只是假設有一天的生命，0，因為我們處於不正常的時間段。我們擁有的核心運營存款，尤其是當你進入中間市場時，基本上是資金——公司用來運營公司的營運資金。我們截斷並且總是截斷這些存款的模型壽命遠低於實際經驗告訴我們的，是的。所以比較保守。

And deposits are spread out over diverse industries and diverse geographies.

存款分佈在不同的行業和不同的地區。

And accounts -- you almost can't compare what happened at Silicon Valley and Signature to any other bank I've ever seen in terms of the concentration of the deposit accounts.

還有賬戶——就存款賬戶的集中度而言，你幾乎無法將矽谷和 Signature 發生的事情與我見過的任何其他銀行進行比較。

And the nature of the clients.

以及客戶的性質。

It's just the nature of them. I mean a lot of that money was -- it's capital raise money that was sitting there.

這只是他們的本性。我的意思是，很多錢是——坐在那裡的資本籌集資金。

Our next question from the line of Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的 Mike Mayo。

I guess this question goes in the category of no good deed goes unpunished. Your operating leverage in the first quarter year-over-year was over 10%. You've guided for positive operating leverage this year of 1% to 3%. Your cycle-to-date beta, I estimate being below 40%. So all that looks really good, but on the other hand, you did, I guess, lower your guidance for how much positive operating leverage this year. You mentioned NII, you mentioned the intensity on deposit pricing. So just can you help talk about the tradeoff of pursuing growth with [core] deposits versus maybe scaling back if that deposit pricing is more intense? Or do you see that not being so at some point?

我想這個問題屬於沒有好事逍遙法外的範疇。你們第一季度的經營槓桿率同比超過 10%。您已指導今年的經營槓桿率為 1% 至 3%。你的周期至今 beta，我估計低於 40%。所以所有這些看起來都非常好，但另一方面，我猜你確實降低了你對今年積極運營槓桿的指導。你提到了 NII，你提到了存款定價的強度。那麼，您能否幫助談談追求 [核心] 存款增長與如果存款定價更加激烈時可能縮減規模之間的權衡？還是您認為在某些時候並非如此？

I think, Mike, the part of the issue that we face here is you have an interest rate forward curve that's suggesting cuts out there. So if you believe that, betas would be less. We kind of think the Fed's going to hold through the year and cut next year. Personally, I think they might hold longer than that. So everybody's NII guide is going to be all over the place depending on what they actually think the Fed is doing as we go into this, the back end of this year.

我認為，邁克，我們在這裡面臨的問題的一部分是你有一個利率遠期曲線，這表明在那裡削減。因此，如果您相信這一點，則貝塔值會更少。我們有點認為美聯儲將維持這一年並在明年降息。就個人而言，我認為他們可能會持有更長的時間。因此，每個人的 NII 指南都會隨處可見，這取決於他們實際認為美聯儲在我們進入今年年底時正在做的事情。

Separately, we have seen just this heightened awareness of interest rates and what you do with deposits on the back of the banks have failed. You've seen the growth in the government money funds on the back of the Fed's reverse repo facility, which is a real thing. As long as they allow that to keep growing, they're at the market deposits, but they're basically getting drained from the banking system and making liquidity more expensive. So that's -- we took all that into account and said, look, if rates are higher for longer, if the Fed keeps draining deposits through its reverse repo facility, the smaller banks really need to pay up at super high rates to fund their balance sheets. It's going to be painful for us, and that's what we put in our guide. That may or may not happen.

另外，我們已經看到這種對利率意識的提高，以及你對銀行存款的處理都失敗了。你已經看到在美聯儲逆回購機制支持下政府貨幣基金的增長，這是真實存在的。只要他們允許這種情況繼續增長，他們就會在市場上存款，但他們基本上會從銀行系統中流失，並使流動性變得更加昂貴。所以這就是 - 我們考慮了所有這些並說，看，如果利率較高的時間更長，如果美聯儲繼續通過其逆回購機制消耗存款，那麼小型銀行真的需要以超高利率支付資金以維持其餘額床單。這對我們來說會很痛苦，這就是我們在指南中提出的內容。這可能會也可能不會發生。

And I would just add, we've got a focus on our core franchise and our clients. So on the commercial side, it's really the effect of commercial clients choosing to switch to interest-bearing from noninterest bearing. And the relationship is fully intact. And then on the consumer side, as Bill just mentioned, the interest-bearing deposits and the pressure around rates paid there.

我只想補充一點，我們已經專注於我們的核心特許經營權和我們的客戶。所以在商業方面，這實際上是商業客戶選擇從不計息轉向計息的結果。而且關係完好無損。然後在消費者方面，正如比爾剛才提到的，有息存款和支付利率的壓力。

And the one other point you guys have made is that either NII will be better or you might have to -- you might get to release some of your credit reserves. Have you seen any improvement in that loan pricing commensurate with some of the standards and the capital markets, you're pricing for risk a lot more and in the lending markets, you have not been pricing for risk and you brought that up before. Are you seeing that at all or still not yet?

你們提出的另一點是，要么 NII 會更好，要么你可能不得不——你可能會釋放一些信用儲備。您是否看到與某些標準和資本市場相稱的貸款定價有任何改善，您對風險的定價要多得多，而在貸款市場上，您沒有對風險進行定價，而您之前曾提出過。你是完全看到還是還沒有看到？

Our new production is a little bit better than it was, but in fairness, at the moment, credit looks much better than we otherwise would have assumed. So it's a trade-off. Now it's going to be interesting, Mike, because the marginal cost of funds for the U.S. banking system has just gone up a lot as a result of this flurry. And so all else equal, you would expect credit spreads to widen here, simply because the cost of funds for all banks has gone up. I haven't seen that play out yet, but it continues to be at least my expectation that it will.

我們的新產品比以前好一點，但公平地說，目前，信用看起來比我們原本假設的要好得多。所以這是一個權衡。邁克，現在這將變得很有趣，因為美國銀行系統的邊際資金成本由於這種混亂而上升了很多。因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，您會預計這裡的信用利差會擴大，這僅僅是因為所有銀行的資金成本都上升了。我還沒有看到結果，但至少我仍然期望它會發生。

Our next question comes from the line Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 Gerard Cassidy 和 RBC 的台詞。

Can you give us -- you guys pointed out about, Rob, the expectations on TLAC in your prepared remarks, but can you guys give us some color on what changes may come as a result of the Signature and Silicon Valley bank failures, the regulators look like they're going to reassess the situation. We'll get the postmortem on May 1, of course. But what do you guys think may happen in terms of additional requirements for regional banks like yours? And I know TLAC, you're already planning on that, but outside of TLAC.

你能不能給我們——羅伯，你們在準備好的發言中指出了對 TLAC 的期望，但是你們能不能給我們一些關於 Signature 和矽谷銀行倒閉、監管機構可能帶來的變化的顏色？看起來他們要重新評估情況。當然，我們將在 5 月 1 日進行屍檢。但是你們認為在對像你們這樣的區域性銀行的額外要求方面可能會發生什麼？我知道 TLAC，你已經在計劃了，但在 TLAC 之外。

I don't know what it is they might do. There's a lot of talk around, should they eliminate the available for sale, opt in or opt out for the AOCI for banks our size. And they may well do that. Part of me though, the reason we put economic value of equity in our presentation is, as soon as you start isolating specific fixed rate assets and ignore others, so what do you do with fixed rate whole loan mortgages? What do you do with held -- it's all the same stuff. It's an accounting entry. And so I would hope that they would have a more holistic look as they do in Europe on measuring balance sheet risk to interest rates. I don't know where that's going to end up. And whatever it is they do is going to take a period of time. TLAC, I think, is a certainty at this point. It's a function of how much it will be and whether it's varied as a function of size and complexity of bank.

我不知道他們會做什麼。周圍有很多討論，他們是否應該消除可供出售的商品，選擇加入或退出我們規模的銀行的 AOCI。他們很可能會那樣做。不過，我的部分原因是，我們將股權的經濟價值放在我們的演示文稿中的原因是，一旦您開始隔離特定的固定利率資產而忽略其他資產，那麼您如何處理固定利率的整體貸款抵押貸款？你用 held 做什麼——都是一樣的東西。這是一個會計分錄。因此，我希望他們能像在歐洲那樣，在衡量資產負債表風險與利率之間的關係時，有一個更全面的視角。我不知道那會在哪裡結束。無論他們做什麼，都需要一段時間。我認為，TLAC 在這一點上是確定無疑的。它取決於它將是多少以及它是否隨銀行的規模和復雜性而變化。

There's some tailoring.

有一些剪裁。

Go ahead, Rob.

去吧，羅伯。

Those are the 2 prominent subjects, TLAC and AOCI inclusion.

這些是 2 個突出的主題，TLAC 和 AOCI 包含。

But by the way, the issue, it's just -- it's worth mentioning basic interest rate risk management and the test around liquidity that banks go through, I mean, we did this, we run this stuff every single day with all sorts of different scenarios and the regulators require us to and we get measured on it (inaudible). Like I don't even know who was looking at these other banks. It's -- so to come in and say we ought to do more, we're already doing it is, I guess, my point.

但順便說一下，這個問題只是——值得一提的是銀行經歷的基本利率風險管理和流動性測試，我的意思是，我們這樣做了，我們每天都在各種不同的場景下運行這些東西監管機構要求我們這樣做，我們會對其進行衡量（聽不清）。就像我什至不知道誰在看這些其他銀行一樣。它是 - 所以進來說我們應該做更多，我們已經在這樣做了，我想，我的意思是。

Very clear. And I'm glad you guys put the whole balance sheet, the equity valuation because that message has to get out, and I'm glad you guys did that.

非常清楚。我很高興你們提出了整個資產負債表，股票估值，因為這個信息必須傳出去，我很高興你們這樣做了。

Moving on to commercial and industrial loans, you guys have seen really good growth over the past year. Can you give us a little more color on, do you see reintermediation coming into the banking system because the capital markets are still disrupted? Or is it just you guys have had success with BBVA and that's working for you? Can you give us some color on that growth that you're seeing?

轉向商業和工業貸款，你們在過去一年中看到了非常好的增長。你能給我們更多的顏色嗎，你是否看到再中介進入銀行系統，因為資本市場仍然受到干擾？或者只是你們在 BBVA 取得了成功並且這對你們有用？你能給我們一些關於你所看到的增長的顏色嗎？

A couple of comments. If you look back through our history, when we enter new markets, this is particularly through factor [RBC] and what we've seen with BBVA. We tend to grow loans at a pace in the new markets that would be above what you would expect as a long-term trend. And then over time, we cross-sell into those new relationships. So almost think of it as it's kind of advertising dollars (inaudible) otherwise participate in a deal and I hope that you're going to get TM revenue and other things.

一些評論。如果你回顧我們的歷史，當我們進入新市場時，這尤其是通過因素 [RBC] 以及我們在 BBVA 看到的。我們傾向於在新市場中以高於您預期的長期趨勢的速度增加貸款。然後隨著時間的推移，我們交叉銷售這些新關係。所以幾乎可以把它看作是一種廣告收入（聽不清），否則參與交易，我希望你能獲得 TM 收入和其他東西。

What we'll see going forward is the cross-sell into the new relationships we've established. The ability to continue to grow loans at that pace should we choose to is probably still there. Do you get paid for it today the way you did when rates were much lower? That's a tougher question. Now the whole reintermediation in the banks from capital markets. I've heard some of that buzz. By the way, I've heard the buzz the other way. All else equal, I suspect the long-term trend will be less in the banking system and more out of the banking system over a long, long period of time, notwithstanding what happens in the near future.

我們將在未來看到的是交叉銷售到我們已經建立的新關係中。如果我們選擇繼續以這種速度增加貸款的能力可能仍然存在。您今天是否像利率低得多時那樣獲得報酬？這是一個更棘手的問題。現在整個銀行從資本市場重新中介。我聽到過一些嗡嗡聲。順便說一句，我從另一個方向聽到了嗡嗡聲。在其他條件相同的情況下，我懷疑在很長很長一段時間內，銀行系統的長期趨勢將更少，銀行系統之外的趨勢將更多，儘管在不久的將來會發生什麼。

Next question from the line of John Pancari with Evercore.

John Pancari 與 Evercore 的下一個問題。

I agree on the slide deck, very, very helpful detail. On the deposit front, just a couple of additional bit of detail, the beta expectation of terminal be 42% looks a little bit more conservative than the group and probably appropriately so. So it's good to see it. Can you maybe give us how that breaks down by way of commercial deposit beta expectation at this point versus consumer?

我同意幻燈片，非常非常有用的細節。在存款方面，只是一些額外的細節，終端的貝塔預期為 42% 看起來比集團保守一點，而且可能是適當的。所以很高興看到它。你能不能告訴我們在這一點上與消費者相比，商業存款貝塔預期是如何分解的？

Yes, sure. John, it's Rob. The way that we look at it in terms of determining where we're going to end up, and again, it's an expectation. We'll see how it plays out ultimately, but you're on the right track. So if you take a look at our total deposits of $437 billion and you take commercial and the high net worth, the consumer portion of it is high net worth, which is around $230 billion, those betas have moved. They're already a terminal, it's done. So that leaves roughly $200 billion or so in consumer deposits, as I mentioned in my comments, 10% of those are noninterest-bearing, which are transactional accounts, we don't expect a change. So you're at $170 billion, the minority of our total deposits of interest-bearing consumer deposits that are sort of in play and that we expect to pay higher rates on. So that's how we get to maybe a more conservative number than what you're seeing on peers that don't have the same mix.

是的，當然。約翰，是羅伯。我們從確定我們將要結束的地方來看待它的方式，再一次，這是一種期望。我們會看到它最終如何發揮作用，但你走在正確的軌道上。因此，如果您看一下我們的 4370 億美元的總存款，並考慮商業和高淨值，其中的消費者部分是高淨值，約為 2300 億美元，這些貝塔值已經發生變化。他們已經是一個終端，完成了。因此，正如我在評論中提到的那樣，剩下大約 2000 億美元左右的消費者存款，其中 10% 是無息的，它們是交易賬戶，我們預計不會發生變化。所以你有 1700 億美元，這是我們的計息消費存款總存款中的一小部分，我們希望支付更高的利率。因此，這就是我們如何獲得比您在沒有相同組合的同行中看到的數字更保守的數字。

Okay. That's helpful. Also on the deposit front, if I could also get a little more detail on the amount of inflows that you may have seen during the March time period around the failures. Can you maybe quantify the amount and if you expect any outflow of any of those inputs that you saw?

好的。這很有幫助。同樣在存款方面，如果我還能獲得更多關於您在 3 月份失敗前後可能看到的資金流入量的詳細信息。您是否可以量化數量，以及您是否預計看到的任何這些輸入都會流出？

So we did see in mid-March. We saw some inflows during that week that at the height of the disruption, but a lot of that's settled out. So we don't expect to see that be a factor for us positively or negatively as we move into the second quarter.

所以我們確實在三月中旬看到了。在那一周，我們看到一些資金流入，處於中斷的高峰期，但其中很多已經解決。因此，我們預計在進入第二季度時，這不會對我們產生積極或消極的影響。

The only thing I'd say, we actually opened in March, twice the number of accounts in our C&I franchise that we would otherwise open in a month. So away from the deposits that came in, we actually got a bunch of clients. The deposits will stay and get mixed, some will go, but we grew our account portfolio pretty substantially in one month.

我唯一要說的是，我們實際上是在 3 月份開設的，是我們 C&I 特許經營賬戶數量的兩倍，否則我們將在一個月內開設。所以除了進來的存款，我們實際上有很多客戶。存款會留下來混合，有些會離開，但我們在一個月內大幅增加了我們的賬戶組合。

Okay. Great. If I could put one more in there. Just on the office front, do you happen to have perhaps the refreshed LTVs that you're starting to see in that portfolio?

好的。偉大的。如果我能再放一個在那裡。就辦公室而言，您是否碰巧擁有您開始在該投資組合中看到的更新後的 LTV？

It's a good question, and I haven't seen them, but it's worth. I don't know we put in the deck or not, but we underwrite to what 55 to 60.

這是一個很好的問題，我還沒有看到它們，但這是值得的。我不知道我們是否投入了甲板，但我們承保了 55 到 60。

55 to 60.

55 到 60。

And all of that stuff is stale and all the appraisals that you get are stale. And so in effect, what we end up doing is you assume that less leases renew than you otherwise would in a normal cash flow analysis. You dropped that pretty materially. You assume that lease rates, all else equal, are going to go down and then you have to put in the rehab costs to re-lease it. And then you discounted at a lower rate. So we've done all that building by building and then taking reserves against it. And I guess a final point I'd make, you think about Rob's number, it was at 9.6% we have against...

所有這些東西都是陳舊的，你得到的所有評估都是陳舊的。所以實際上，我們最終做的是你假設續租的租約比你在正常現金流分析中要少。你把它丟掉了。您假設在其他條件相同的情況下，租賃費率會下降，然後您必須投入修復成本才能重新租賃它。然後你以較低的價格打折。因此，我們通過建設然後提取儲備金來完成所有建設工作。我想我要說的最後一點是，你想想 Rob 的數據，我們有 9.6% 反對......

Multi-tenant, right.

多租戶，對。

Effectively, you're saying, all right, I can have 20% of Class A office default and lose $0.50 on the dollar on a portfolio that was originally underwritten at 60%. That's a pretty severe outcome.

實際上，你是說，好吧，我可以讓 20% 的 A 級辦公室違約，並在最初以 60% 承保的投資組合上損失 0.50 美元。這是一個相當嚴重的結果。

Yes. And I would just add to that, John. So Bill mentioned it, we have a relatively small portfolio. So we're able to go asset by asset rather than just broad strokes across a general portfolio.

是的。我只想補充一點，約翰。所以比爾提到了，我們的投資組合相對較小。因此，我們能夠逐個資產進行評估，而不僅僅是在一般投資組合中大刀闊斧。

We -- look, we know how to do this, but we've been in the business for a long time. We have all the resources and have seen the activity in Midland. We know all the borrowers we're with. And we think we've laid it out pretty clearly. We're going to have charge-offs, but we've...

我們 - 看，我們知道如何做到這一點，但我們已經從事這項業務很長時間了。我們擁有所有資源，並且已經看到了米德蘭的活動。我們認識所有的借款人。我們認為我們已經把它佈置得非常清楚了。我們將要收費，但我們已經...

That's why we built reserves.

這就是我們建立儲備的原因。

Where they're coming from and we've built the reserves.

他們來自哪裡，我們已經建立了儲備。

Next question from the line of Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

Wolfe Research 的 Bill Carcache 的下一個問題。

Bill and Rob, I wanted to follow up on the deposit beta commentary. Rob, you mentioned that mid-20% noninterest-bearing deposit mix that's implicit, I believe, in your 42% terminal beta assumption. It looks like that would get you back to pre-COVID levels on Slide 11, I think. How are you thinking about the risk that noninterest-bearing mix will continue to fall, not just the pre-COVID levels but potentially even lower? Perhaps some have talked about...

Bill 和 Rob，我想跟進存款測試評論。 Rob，你提到 20% 左右的無息存款組合是隱含的，我相信，在你 42% 的終端貝塔假設中。我認為這看起來會讓你回到幻燈片 11 上 COVID 之前的水平。您如何看待無息組合繼續下降的風險，不僅是 COVID 前的水平，而且可能更低？或許有些人已經談到...

Yes, we can see and we take a look at the nature of the accounts, mid-20s is our estimate. It could go lower. Our expectations are, though, that it would be in the mid-20s. And that's really on the basis of the nature of the operating accounts that we have, but as we just were mentioning, we know really well, and we know the nature of their activities. So it's really a knowledge of our operating book that gives us that indication.

是的，我們可以看到，我們看一下賬戶的性質，我們的估計是 20 多歲。它可能會走低。不過，我們的預期是在 20 年代中期。這實際上是基於我們擁有的運營賬戶的性質，但正如我們剛才提到的，我們非常了解，而且我們知道他們活動的性質。因此，真正為我們提供指示的是我們的操作書知識。

Understood. And then separately, following up on your commentary around potential regulatory uncertainty. In light of bars, your recent Senate testimony, I was hoping you could address broadly how you're all thinking about the levers at your disposal to the extent that the regulatory environment grows more challenging, certainly, your -- it seems like you're well positioned, but in terms of levers, whether it's RWA growth, buyback, dividend, if you could just frame how you think about those to the extent that it does get more challenging?

明白了。然後分別跟進您對潛在監管不確定性的評論。鑑於酒吧，你最近的參議院證詞，我希望你能廣泛地談談你們是如何考慮在監管環境變得更具挑戰性的情況下可以使用的槓桿，當然，你的 - 看起來你'我們處於有利地位，但就槓桿而言，無論是 RWA 增長、回購、股息，如果你能將你對這些的看法框定到它確實變得更具挑戰性的程度？

Not sure -- if you put AOCI in, we're already kind of over the threshold. All else equal, I think we're well positioned and fine. We -- as Rob mentioned, we're at least at the moment, being conservative on our thoughts on share repurchase, but most of that is to kind of laid out the current environment, get through earnings and see where we are. I don't see any issue coming out of regulation that we won't be able to handle in the due course.

不確定——如果你把 AOCI 放進去，我們已經有點超過門檻了。在其他條件相同的情況下，我認為我們處於有利位置並且很好。我們 - 正如 Rob 提到的那樣，我們至少在目前對我們對股票回購的想法持保守態度，但其中大部分是為了佈置當前環境，通過收益並了解我們的位置。我沒有看到任何我們無法在適當時候處理的監管問題。

And that would largely be in the obvious areas of capital and liquidity where we're strong.

這主要是在我們強大的資本和流動性的明顯領域。

Next question from the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

Scott Siefers 和 Piper Sandler 的下一個問題。

So you reduced the full year '23 loan growth expectations a bit. I was wondering if you could comment for a second on how much of that is sort of lower either existing or anticipated demand? And how much is you guys just sort of being more conservative about where you'd hope to kind of direct your capital liquidity?

因此，您略微降低了 23 年全年的貸款增長預期。我想知道您是否可以評論一下，其中有多少是現有或預期需求較低？你們有多少只是對您希望將資本流動性引導到哪裡更加保守？

It's a great question. It's probably 50-50. So demand has softened a little bit. And then the marginal cost of (inaudible) new clients has gone up, so a little more picky than we were. It's probably 50-50.

這是一個很好的問題。大概是50-50。因此需求有所減弱。然後（聽不清）新客戶的邊際成本上升了，所以比我們更挑剔了。大概是50-50。

And that spread issue that we talked about that we think that we should be paid more for the risk.

我們談到的傳播問題，我們認為我們應該為風險支付更多費用。

Okay. Perfect. And then, Bill, I was hoping you could expand just a bit on that commercial account opening comment you made a couple of questions ago. Maybe as you sort of think of how the sort of the world might look going forward for commercial customers. Do you think they'll just maybe diversify their relationships to protect themselves a little? How will an operational account work? Will people just keep less in their operational accounts and sprinkle it elsewhere, any thoughts on how things might evolve?

好的。完美的。然後，比爾，我希望你能稍微擴展一下你之前提出的幾個問題的商業賬戶開設評論。也許就像你想的那樣，對於商業客戶來說，世界會如何發展。你認為他們可能只是為了保護自己而使他們的關係多樣化嗎？運營賬戶將如何運作？人們會不會在他們的運營賬戶中保留更少的資金並將其撒在其他地方，對事情可能如何發展有什麼想法嗎？

I'm not sure. We haven't seen anything with our legacy clients in terms of behavior. Now they've -- we've seen money go into sweep accounts, government funds from corporates and individuals largely is a function of rate. I don't know that it has anything to do with diversification. As you go for smaller banks, I suppose that could become an issue depending on how much visibility there is into that particular bank's balance sheet, but we just haven't seen any of that.

我不知道。在行為方面，我們還沒有看到我們的遺留客戶有任何行為。現在他們 - 我們已經看到資金進入清算賬戶，來自企業和個人的政府資金主要是利率的函數。我不知道這與多元化有什麼關係。當你選擇較小的銀行時，我想這可能會成為一個問題，具體取決於該特定銀行資產負債表的可見性，但我們還沒有看到任何這些。

Next question from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

Ken Usdin 與 Jefferies 的下一個問題。

I just want to dig on the guidance a little bit. The second quarter guidance is clear for the revenue step down, and kind of that implies in the full year guide that second half revenue is pretty equal to first half revenue. I'm just wondering if you can kind of maybe give us some NII versus fees? And are you expecting any just better stability or increase as you go through the year perhaps in fees versus what might happen in NII?

我只想深入了解一下指導。第二季度收入下降的指引很明確，這在某種程度上暗示全年指引下半年收入與上半年收入相當。我只是想知道您是否可以給我們一些 NII 與費用的比較？與 NII 可能發生的情況相比，您是否期望隨著這一年的過去，費用會出現更好的穩定性或增長？

Okay. I think you're asking in terms of the full year. So we've given you the new guidance around our NII, and then we've been through that. As far as fees go, we're calling it to be stable year-over-year. And there's some moving parts in there. Some of the fee categories are doing a little better than we expected. Some are doing a little bit worse, but altogether, it's still stable.

好的。我想你問的是全年。所以我們已經為您提供了有關我們的 NII 的新指南，然後我們已經完成了。就費用而言，我們稱其同比穩定。裡面有一些活動部件。一些費用類別的表現比我們預期的要好一些。有些人做得有點差，但總的來說，它仍然穩定。

Okay. And within that, can I just ask you a question, your Harris Williams business has just been a great one over the years. In this environment, obviously, M&A is slower, but is there also -- is there any sense or chance that also like midsized companies have to do a rethink here? I'm just kind of wondering just where you think the pipelines and outlook are for that business specifically.

好的。在那之中，我能問你一個問題嗎，你的哈里斯·威廉姆斯公司多年來一直非常出色。在這種環境下，顯然，併購速度較慢，但是否還有 - 是否有任何意義或機會像中型公司一樣必須在這裡重新思考？我只是想知道您認為該業務的管道和前景具體在哪裡。

Yes. So Harris Williams, you're accurate in terms of -- that's our biggest driver of our capital markets advisory businesses. And they had a slower than usual quarter in the first quarter, obviously reflecting a lot of the disruption. And the pipelines are still pretty good. We're not expecting a big rebound in the second quarter, but potentially in the second half. But to your point, a lot of that depends on the psychology at the time. And the ability and the support for both, buyers and sellers, to do deals.

是的。所以哈里斯威廉姆斯，你是準確的 - 這是我們資本市場諮詢業務的最大推動力。他們在第一季度的表現比往常慢，顯然反映了很多中斷。而且流水線還是很不錯的。我們預計第二季度不會出現大幅反彈，但可能會在下半年出現。但就您而言，這在很大程度上取決於當時的心理。以及對買賣雙方進行交易的能力和支持。

Rob, one more quick one. I know your footnote on your beta slide says that you don't include time deposits in your beta count. So are we generally to assume that the beta on time deposits is obviously very high, just given what we know to the early point that Bill made about industry funding costs?

羅伯，再快一點。我知道您的 Beta 幻燈片上的腳註說您的 Beta 計數中不包括定期存款。那麼，我們是否通常假設定期存款的貝塔係數顯然非常高，只是考慮到我們對比爾早期提出的行業融資成本的了解？

Yes, that's right. And again, that's a conventional measure. So that's not our own personal PNC measure. That's how the industry calculates it.

恩，那就對了。同樣，這是一項常規措施。所以這不是我們自己的個人 PNC 措施。業界就是這樣計算的。

(Operator Instructions). Next question from the line (inaudible) with Point72.

（操作員說明）。來自 Point72 的下一個問題（聽不清）。

A quick question, if I may, on the commercial real estate, a follow-up one on criticized loans on Slide 18. That 20% as much as your -- the rest of your commercial real estate book. So I would just like to understand what was this number before and how you would expect this number to evolve from here?

一個簡短的問題，如果可以的話，關於商業房地產，一個關於幻燈片 18 上批評貸款的後續問題。那是你的 20%——你的商業房地產書的其餘部分。所以我只想了解這個數字之前是多少，你會如何期望這個數字從這裡演變而來？

I'm sorry. I'm sorry, I didn't follow all of that.

對不起。對不起，我沒有遵循所有這些。

On Slide 18, you mentioned that your office size loan ratio is 20%. I just would like to know what was this number before for previous quarters? And how do you expect this number to evolve from here.

在幻燈片 18 中，您提到您的辦公室規模貸款比率是 20%。我只想知道前幾個季度的這個數字是多少？您如何看待這個數字從這裡演變而來。

So the 2.7%, it's been pretty steady. So it's been a small percentage of our total commercial real estate. It hasn't changed nor do we expect it, certainly not to go up.

所以 2.7%，一直很穩定。所以它只占我們商業地產總額的一小部分。它沒有改變，我們也不期望它，當然不會上升。

Next question from the line of Alan Davis, NatWest markets.

NatWest 市場的 Alan Davis 的下一個問題。

Alan Davis here from NatWest Markets. Just a very quick question and echo what everybody said that the disclosure and information here is fantastic. With all the market noise that went on after SVB, and I totally get the difference, and I totally agree with what you're saying about the accounting standards and so on. Nevertheless, there's a lot of keen interest in the unrealized losses on the hold-to-maturity portfolio. Are you able to provide any color or guidance there? I don't think all of that would be in AOCI. Is there anything that you can help guide me with in that regard?

來自 NatWest Markets 的 Alan Davis。只是一個非常快速的問題，並回應每個人所說的，這裡的披露和信息非常棒。隨著 SVB 之後的所有市場噪音，我完全明白了，我完全同意你所說的關於會計準則等的內容。儘管如此，人們對持有至到期投資組合的未實現損失非常感興趣。你能在那裡提供任何顏色或指導嗎？我不認為所有這些都在 AOCI 中。在這方面，您有什麼可以幫助指導我的嗎？

To add-on held to maturity, so inside of AOCI today is one number, and then we have another smaller loss in held to maturity, which we disclosed.

加上持有至到期日，所以今天 AOCI 內部是一個數字，然後我們在持有至到期日還有另一個較小的損失，我們披露了這一點。

$3.5 billion.

35億美元。

We have no further questions on the phone line.

我們在電話線上沒有進一步的問題。

Okay. Well, thank you for joining our call and your interest in PNC. And if you have any other additional questions or need follow-up, please feel free to reach out to the IR team. Thank you, bye.

好的。好吧，感謝您加入我們的電話會議以及您對 PNC 的興趣。如果您有任何其他問題或需要跟進，請隨時聯繫 IR 團隊。謝謝你，再見。

Thanks, everybody.

謝謝大家。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That concludes today's call. We thank you for your participation and ask you to please disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。