PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Well, good morning, and welcome to today's conference call for the PNC Financial Services Group.

好吧，早上好，歡迎參加今天的 PNC 金融服務集團電話會議。

Participating on this call are PNC's Chairman, President and CEO, Bill Demchak; and Rob Reilly, Executive Vice President and CFO.

參加此次電話會議的有 PNC 主席、總裁兼首席執行官 Bill Demchak；和執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Rob Reilly。

Today's presentation contains forward-looking information. Cautionary statements about this information as well as reconciliations of non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release materials as well as our SEC filings and other investor materials. These are all available on our corporate website, pnc.com, under Investor Relations. These statements speak only as of October 14, 2022, and PNC undertakes no obligation to update them.

今天的演示文稿包含前瞻性信息。今天的收益發布材料以及我們的 SEC 文件和其他投資者材料中包含有關此信息的警告聲明以及非 GAAP 措施的調節。這些都可以在我們的公司網站 pnc.com 的投資者關係下找到。這些聲明僅在 2022 年 10 月 14 日生效，PNC 不承擔更新它們的義務。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bill.

現在我想把電話轉給比爾。

Thanks, Brian, and good morning, everybody. As you've seen, we delivered another strong quarter, generating $1.6 billion of net income or $3.78 per share. The combination of continued growth in our commercial and consumer loan books and higher rates drove net interest income 14% higher and our net interest margin increased 32 basis points. By the way, that's the largest sequential increase in NIM in more than a decade.

謝謝，布賴恩，大家早上好。如您所見，我們實現了又一個強勁的季度，產生了 16 億美元的淨收入或每股 3.78 美元。我們的商業和消費貸款賬簿的持續增長以及更高的利率共同推動了淨利息收入增長了 14%，我們的淨息差增加了 32 個基點。順便說一句，這是十多年來淨息差的最大環比增幅。

Noninterest income was also up modestly, reflecting strong private equity performance and a record quarter in loan syndications, partially offset by weaker M&A activity. We remained disciplined on the expense front, resulting in 7 percentage points of positive operating leverage. Our credit quality was largely unchanged in the quarter. While we have not seen any meaningful deterioration in credit quality taking place, our provision of $241 million reflects our slightly weaker economic expectations.

非利息收入也小幅上升，反映出強勁的私募股權表現和創紀錄的季度貸款銀團，部分被併購活動疲軟所抵消。我們在費用方面保持自律，實現了 7 個百分點的正經營槓桿。我們的信用質量在本季度基本沒有變化。雖然我們沒有看到信貸質量出現任何顯著惡化，但我們提供的 2.41 億美元反映了我們略微疲軟的經濟預期。

Our capital levels remain solid, and we returned $1.7 billion of capital to shareholders during the quarter through share repurchases and dividends. We continue to make good progress on our strategic priorities. Our new and acquired markets performed particularly well across all lines of business, and we see significant untapped opportunities across these markets. We also continue to invest in our payments capabilities to provide differentiated value.

我們的資本水平保持穩健，本季度我們通過股票回購和股息向股東返還了 17 億美元的資本。我們繼續在戰略重點方面取得良好進展。我們的新市場和收購市場在所有業務領域的表現都特別好，我們看到這些市場中存在大量尚未開發的機會。我們還繼續投資於我們的支付能力，以提供差異化的價值。

We recently acquired Linga, enhancing our capabilities to better serve restaurant and retail clients, particularly in the small business space. And during the quarter, we made enhancements across our retail platform to drive customer convenience and retention. For example, we recently announced a partnership with Allpoint to give our customers surcharge-free access to 41,000 additional ATMs from coast to coast. With this partnership, PNC now offers customers surcharge-free access to more than 60,000 PNC and partner ATMs across the country.

我們最近收購了 Linga，增強了我們更好地為餐廳和零售客戶服務的能力，尤其是在小型企業領域。在本季度，我們對零售平台進行了增強，以提高客戶便利性和保留率。例如，我們最近宣布與 Allpoint 建立合作夥伴關係，讓我們的客戶可以免費使用從東海岸到西海岸的 41,000 台額外的 ATM。通過這種合作夥伴關係，PNC 現在為客戶提供免費訪問全國超過 60,000 台 PNC 和合作夥伴 ATM 的服務。

In AMG we saw positive quarterly flows of $4 billion, driven by both the private bank and institutional asset management. We are recruiting top talent and remain focused on taking share in all of our markets.

在 AMG，我們看到了 40 億美元的季度正流量，由私人銀行和機構資產管理公司共同推動。我們正在招募頂尖人才，並繼續專注於在我們所有的市場中佔有一席之地。

In summary, in the third quarter, we executed well as a national Main Street bank, and we are in a position of strength as we look to the future. As always, I want to thank our employees for their hard work in the third quarter and for everything they do to deliver for our customers, communities and our shareholders.

總而言之，在第三季度，我們作為一家全國性的大街銀行執行得很好，展望未來，我們處於優勢地位。與往常一樣，我要感謝我們的員工在第三季度的辛勤工作以及他們為我們的客戶、社區和股東所做的一切。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Rob to provide more detail about our financial results.

有了這個，我將把它交給 Rob，以提供有關我們財務業績的更多細節。

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Our balance sheet is on Slide 3 and is presented on an average basis. During the quarter, loan balances were $313 billion, an increase of $8 billion or 3%. Investment securities grew approximately $2 billion or 2%. Cash balances at the Federal Reserve decreased $8 billion, and our deposit balances averaged $439 billion, a decline of $7 billion or 2%. However, spot deposits were down $2.6 billion or less than 1% as lower consumer deposits were partially offset by growth in commercial deposits.

謝謝，比爾，大家早上好。我們的資產負債表在幻燈片 3 上，以平均水平呈現。本季度，貸款餘額為 3,130 億美元，增加 80 億美元或 3%。投資證券增長約 20 億美元或 2%。美聯儲的現金餘額減少了 80 億美元，我們的存款餘額平均為 4390 億美元，減少了 70 億美元或 2%。然而，由於消費者存款的減少被商業存款的增長部分抵消，即期存款減少了 26 億美元或不到 1%。

At the end of the third quarter, our loan-to-deposit ratio was 72% and remains well below our pre-pandemic levels. Average borrowed funds increased $8.6 billion as we bolstered our liquidity through Federal Home Loan Bank borrowings. During the quarter, we increased our borrowings with the home loan bank by $20 billion on a spot basis. We continue to be well-positioned with significant capital flexibility. During the quarter, we returned $1.7 billion of capital to shareholders through approximately $600 million of common dividends and $1.1 billion of share repurchases or 6.7 million shares.

在第三季度末，我們的貸存比為 72%，仍遠低於疫情前的水平。由於我們通過聯邦住房貸款銀行借款增加了流動性，平均借入資金增加了 86 億美元。在本季度，我們增加了 200 億美元的即期借款。我們繼續處於有利地位，具有顯著的資本靈活性。在本季度，我們通過約 6 億美元的普通股股息和 11 億美元的股票回購或 670 萬股股票向股東返還了 17 億美元的資本。

And as of September 30, 2022, our CET1 ratio was estimated to be 9.3%.

截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日，我們的 CET1 比率估計為 9.3%。

Slide 4 shows our loans in more detail. During the third quarter, we delivered solid loan growth across our expanded franchise. Loan balances averaged $313 billion, an increase of $8 billion or 3% compared to the second quarter, reflecting growth in both commercial and consumer loans. On a spot basis, loans grew $4.6 billion or 1%.

幻燈片 4 更詳細地顯示了我們的貸款。在第三季度，我們在擴大的特許經營範圍內實現了穩健的貸款增長。貸款餘額平均為 3,130 億美元，與第二季度相比增加 80 億美元或 3%，反映了商業和消費貸款的增長。按即期計算，貸款增長 46 億美元或 1%。

Commercial loans grew $3.1 billion as strong new production more than offset the syndication of the $5 billion of high-quality short-term loans that were expected to mature in the second half of the year. Consumer loans increased $1.5 billion driven by higher residential mortgage and home equity balances, partially offset by lower auto loans. And loan yields increased 69 basis points compared to the second quarter, driven by higher interest rates.

商業貸款增加了 31 億美元，因為強勁的新產量抵消了預計在下半年到期的 50 億美元優質短期貸款的銀團。由於住宅抵押貸款和房屋淨值餘額增加，消費貸款增加了 15 億美元，部分被汽車貸款減少所抵消。在利率上升的推動下，與第二季度相比，貸款收益率增加了 69 個基點。

Slide 5 covers our deposits in more detail. Although average deposits declined $7 billion or 2% compared to the second quarter, spot deposits were $438 billion and declined less than 1% compared to June 30. Commercial deposits grew $1.7 billion or 1% on a spot basis, and consumer deposits declined $4.3 billion or 2%, reflecting inflationary pressures and seasonally higher spending.

幻燈片 5 更詳細地介紹了我們的存款。雖然平均存款較第二季度下降 70 億美元或 2%，但即期存款為 4380 億美元，較 6 月 30 日下降不到 1%。商業存款即期增長 17 億美元或 1%，消費存款下降 43 億美元或 2%，反映通脹壓力和季節性支出增加。

Given the rising interest rate environment, we've begun to see a mix shift from noninterest-bearing into interest-bearing, particularly within our commercial deposits and expect this to continue over time. However, to date, our consolidated deposit portfolio mix has remained relatively stable with 2/3 interest-bearing and 1/3 noninterest bearing. Overall, our rate paid on interest-bearing deposits increased 33 basis points linked quarter to 45 basis points. As of September 30, our cumulative beta was 22%, and we estimate it will increase to approximately 30% by year-end.

鑑於利率上升的環境，我們已經開始看到從無息到有息的混合轉變，特別是在我們的商業存款中，並且預計這種情況會隨著時間的推移而持續下去。然而，迄今為止，我們的綜合存款組合組合保持相對穩定，2/3 有息和 1/3 無息。總體而言，我們支付的有息存款利率與季度掛鉤，增加了 33 個基點至 45 個基點。截至 9 月 30 日，我們的累積 beta 為 22%，我們估計到年底將增加到 30% 左右。

Slide 6 details our securities portfolio. On an average basis, our securities grew $2 billion or 2% during the quarter, as we replaced maturities with higher-yielding securities. The yield on our securities portfolio increased 21 basis points to 2.1%, driven by higher reinvestment yields as well as lower premium amortization. And during the quarter, new purchase yields exceeded 4%. Throughout the course of the year, we've repositioned our securities portfolio. And as of September 30, we had 66% of our securities classified as held to maturity. While interest rates have continued to increase, this repositioning has reduced the rate of change in our AOCI.

幻燈片 6 詳細介紹了我們的證券投資組合。平均而言，我們的證券在本季度增長了 20 億美元或 2%，因為我們用收益率更高的證券取代了到期日。我們的證券投資組合的收益率增加了 21 個基點至 2.1%，這是由於再投資收益率較高以及溢價攤銷較低。而在本季度，新購買收益率超過 4%。在這一年中，我們重新定位了我們的證券投資組合。截至 9 月 30 日，我們有 66% 的證券歸類為持有至到期。雖然利率繼續上升，但這種重新定位降低了我們 AOCI 的變化率。

At the end of the third quarter, our accumulated other comprehensive loss was $10.5 billion, and as you know, is not included in our regulatory capital. And importantly, we expect this amount to fully accrete back over the remaining lives of the securities and swaps. As of September 30, we estimate that approximately 5% of AOCI will accrete back per quarter going forward.

第三季度末，我們累計其他綜合虧損為105億美元，如您所知，不包括在我們的監管資本中。重要的是，我們預計這一數額將在證券和掉期的剩餘期限內完全增加。截至 9 月 30 日，我們估計未來每季度約有 5% 的 AOCI 將增加。

Turning to the income statement on Slide 7. As you can see, third quarter 2022 reported net income was $1.6 billion or $3.78 per share. Revenue was up $433 million or 8% compared with the second quarter. Expenses increased $36 million or 1%, resulting in 7% positive operating leverage linked quarter. Provision was $241 million in the third quarter, reflecting a slightly weaker economic outlook, which impacted our macroeconomic scenarios and weightings, and our effective tax rate was 19.1%.

轉到幻燈片 7 上的損益表。如您所見，2022 年第三季度報告的淨收入為 16 億美元或每股 3.78 美元。與第二季度相比，收入增長了 4.33 億美元或 8%。費用增加了 3600 萬美元或 1%，導致 7% 的正經營槓桿聯繫季度。第三季度撥備為 2.41 億美元，反映出經濟前景略微疲軟，這影響了我們的宏觀經濟情景和權重，我們的有效稅率為 19.1%。

Turning to Slide 8. We highlight our revenue trends. As you can see, total revenue for the third quarter was $5.5 billion, an increase of 8% or $433 million linked quarter. Net interest income of $3.5 billion was up $424 million or 14%. The benefit of higher yields on interest-earning assets and increased loan balances was partially offset by higher funding costs. And as a result, net interest margin increased 32 basis points to 2.82%.

轉到幻燈片 8。我們強調我們的收入趨勢。如您所見，第三季度總收入為 55 億美元，增長 8% 或 4.33 億美元。 35 億美元的淨利息收入增加了 4.24 億美元或 14%。生息資產收益率提高和貸款餘額增加的好處被較高的融資成本部分抵消。因此，淨息差增加 32 個基點至 2.82%。

Third quarter noninterest income of $2.1 billion increased $9 million as lower fee income was offset by an increase in other noninterest income. The decline in fee revenue was driven by lower activity in our capital markets, mortgage and asset management businesses, which was somewhat offset by continued strong performance in our lending and deposit services as well as our card and cash management fees. Growth in other noninterest income reflected higher private equity revenue as well as a $13 million positive Visa derivative fair value adjustment in the third quarter compared to a negative adjustment of $16 million in the second quarter.

第三季度 21 億美元的非利息收入增加了 900 萬美元，因為較低的費用收入被其他非利息收入的增加所抵消。費用收入的下降是由於我們的資本市場、抵押貸款和資產管理業務活動的減少，這在一定程度上被我們的貸款和存款服務以及我們的卡和現金管理費用的持續強勁表現所抵消。其他非利息收入的增長反映了更高的私募股權收入以及第三季度 1300 萬美元的 Visa 衍生公允價值正調整，而第二季度的負調整為 1600 萬美元。

Turning to Slide 9. Our third quarter expenses continue to be well managed and were up 1% linked quarter. The growth reflected increased personnel expense to support business growth as well as one additional day in the quarter. As we previously stated, we have a goal to reduce costs by $300 million in 2022 through our continuous improvement program. We're now 9 months into the year, and we've completed actions related to capturing more than 80% of our annual goal. And as a result, we remain confident we will achieve our full year objectives. As you know, this program funds a significant portion of our ongoing business and technology investments.

轉到幻燈片 9。我們第三季度的支出繼續得到良好管理，與季度掛鉤的增長了 1%。增長反映了支持業務增長的人員費用增加以及本季度增加了一天。正如我們之前所說，我們的目標是通過我們的持續改進計劃在 2022 年將成本降低 3 億美元。今年已經 9 個月了，我們已經完成了與實現超過 80% 的年度目標相關的行動。因此，我們仍然有信心實現全年目標。如您所知，該計劃資助了我們正在進行的業務和技術投資的很大一部分。

Our credit metrics are presented on Slide 10. Nonperforming loans of $2.1 billion increased $22 million or 1% compared to June 30 and continue to represent less than 1% of total loans. Total delinquencies were $1.6 billion on September 30 at $115 million or 8% increase linked quarter. The increase was driven by elevated levels of administrative delinquencies, the majority of which have already been or are in the process of being resolved.

我們的信用指標顯示在幻燈片 10 中。與 6 月 30 日相比，21 億美元的不良貸款增加了 2200 萬美元或 1%，並且繼續佔總貸款的不到 1%。 9 月 30 日的總拖欠金額為 16 億美元，環比季度增長 1.15 億美元或 8%。這一增長是由行政違法率上升推動的，其中大部分已經或正在解決。

Net charge-offs for loans and leases were $119 million, an increase of $36 million linked quarter, primarily driven by higher Commercial loan net charge-offs. Our annualized net charge-offs to average loans continues to be historically low at 15 basis points.

貸款和租賃的淨沖銷為 1.19 億美元，比上一季度增加了 3600 萬美元，主要是由於商業貸款淨沖銷增加。我們對平均貸款的年化淨沖銷繼續保持在 15 個基點的歷史低位。

Provision for the third quarter was $241 million compared to $36 million in the second quarter. The increase reflected slightly weaker economic expectations, which impacted our macroeconomic scenarios and weightings. And during the third quarter, our allowance for credit losses remained essentially stable. Our reserves now totals $5.3 billion and continued to be 1.7% of total loans.

第三季度的準備金為 2.41 億美元，而第二季度為 3600 萬美元。這一增長反映了經濟預期略有減弱，這影響了我們的宏觀經濟情景和權重。第三季度，我們的信用損失準備基本保持穩定。我們的準備金現在總計 53 億美元，繼續佔總貸款的 1.7%。

In summary, PNC reported a strong third quarter. In regard to our view of the overall economy, we expect moderate growth in the fourth quarter, resulting in 1.8% GDP growth for the full year 2022. We also expect the Fed to raise rates by an additional 125 basis points in the fourth quarter with a 75 basis point increase in November and a 50 basis point increase in December.

總之，PNC 報告了強勁的第三季度。關於我們對整體經濟的看法，我們預計第四季度將溫和增長，導致 2022 年全年 GDP 增長 1.8%。我們還預計美聯儲將在第四季度再加息 125 個基點， 11 月增加 75 個基點，12 月增加 50 個基點。

Looking at the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the third quarter of 2022, we expect average loan balances to increase approximately 1%. Net interest income to be up 6% to 8%, fee income to be stable to down 1%; other noninterest income to be between $200 million and $250 million, excluding net securities and Visa activity.

與 2022 年第三季度相比，2022 年第四季度，我們預計平均貸款餘額將增長約 1%。淨利息收入增長6%至8%，手續費收入穩定至下降1%；其他非利息收入在 2 億至 2.5 億美元之間，不包括淨證券和 Visa 活動。

Taking our guidance for all components of revenue into consideration, we expect total revenue to increase approximately 2%. We expect total noninterest expense to be stable to up 1%. Fourth quarter net charge-offs to be between $125 million and $175 million, and we expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 18.5%.

考慮到我們對所有收入組成部分的指導，我們預計總收入將增長約 2%。我們預計總非利息支出將穩定在 1% 左右。第四季度淨沖銷額在 1.25 億美元至 1.75 億美元之間，我們預計我們的有效稅率約為 18.5%。

And with that, Bill and I are ready to take your questions.

有了這個，比爾和我準備好回答你的問題了。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of John Pancari with Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 John Pancari 和 Evercore。

On the funding side, I know you saw your deposit balances pull back again on a linked-quarter basis in both average and EOP. I wonder if you can give us a little bit of color on your thoughts there on deposit growth in coming quarters as rates continue to rise and you see some mix in your funding?

在資金方面，我知道你看到你的存款餘額在平均和 EOP 的鏈接季度基礎上再次回落。我想知道隨著利率繼續上升，您是否可以就您對未來幾個季度存款增長的看法給我們一些色彩，您是否看到您的資金有所混合？

John, it's Rob. Yes, so on deposits, we saw a decline in the quarter, less so on a spot basis. Actually, commercial deposits grew there at the end of the quarter, but down quarter-over-quarter. When we look forward to the next quarter, we sort of see stable to down. On the consumer side, we do expect some downward trends just reflecting what we've seen lately, which is largely spend related, somewhat seasonal, but also the inflationary pressures.

約翰，是羅布。是的，所以在存款方面，我們看到本季度有所下降，現貨方面的下降幅度較小。實際上，商業存款在本季度末有所增長，但環比下降。當我們展望下個季度時，我們看到穩定下跌。在消費者方面，我們確實預計會出現一些下降趨勢，這反映了我們最近所看到的情況，這主要與支出相關，有些季節性，還有通脹壓力。

And then on the commercial side, we're calling it stable. Typically, seasonally, we see commercial increase and so far in the quarter, we have seen increases. But there's a lot of forces working against that with quantitative tightening and everything that's going on. So we're calling for stable large -- overall, down maybe a little bit.

然後在商業方面，我們稱之為穩定。通常，季節性地，我們看到商業增長，並且在本季度到目前為止，我們看到了增長。但是，隨著量化緊縮和正在發生的一切，有很多力量在反對這一點。所以我們呼籲穩定大 - 總體而言，可能會下降一點。

Okay. That's helpful. And related to that, Rob, can you just maybe update us on how you're thinking about deposit betas in terms of your net interest income expectations and how you're thinking about the margin.

好的。這很有幫助。與此相關，Rob，您能否向我們介紹一下您如何根據淨利息收入預期以及您對保證金的看法來考慮存款貝塔。

Yes, sure. Sure. So as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, our betas are running right now at around 22%. We expect it to go to 30% by year-end.

是的，當然。當然。因此，正如我在準備好的評論中提到的，我們的測試版目前運行在 22% 左右。我們預計到年底將達到 30%。

Right. Okay. And then in terms of the margin trajectory, just to see if you can help us with that. How we should think about that as well?

正確的。好的。然後就保證金軌跡而言，只是想看看你是否可以幫助我們。我們也應該如何思考？

Well, I think in terms of the margin, we saw a nice increase, obviously, in the third quarter. We won't see that equivalent jump necessarily in the fourth quarter, but as the Fed continues to raise rates, we will continue to see some margin expansion.

好吧，我認為就利潤率而言，我們顯然在第三季度看到了不錯的增長。我們不一定會在第四季度看到同樣的增長，但隨著美聯儲繼續加息，我們將繼續看到一些利潤率擴張。

Okay. And then if I could just ask one more. On the buybacks, $1.1 billion for the quarter, came in above your $750 million guidance. Maybe if you could just talk about expectations, the likelihood of it being $750 for next quarter? Or could you surpass that again if you have the opportunity given the share price?

好的。然後如果我可以再問一個。在回購方面，本季度的 11 億美元高於你 7.5 億美元的指導。也許如果你能談談預期，下個季度它是 750 美元的可能性？或者如果你有機會考慮到股價，你能再次超越嗎？

Yes. So we have been active repurchasers of our shares. We've been operating under the stressed capital buffer framework, which allows us a lot of flexibility. We pointed to $700 or $750 as sort of our average purchase rate, which is roughly about what we've done since we reinstated our share repurchases following the acquisition of BBVA. So that's just a rule of thumb. We can do more, we can do less as conditions were. And so going forward, we'll see. We will be purchasers of our shares in the fourth quarter, the amount of which will be determined based on conditions.

是的。因此，我們一直是我們股票的積極回購者。我們一直在壓力大的資本緩衝框架下運營，這為我們提供了很大的靈活性。我們指出 700 美元或 750 美元是我們的平均購買價格，這大致與我們在收購 BBVA 後恢復股票回購以來所做的事情差不多。所以這只是一個經驗法則。我們可以做更多，我們可以在條件允許的情況下做更少。因此，我們將拭目以待。我們將在第四季度購買我們的股票，具體數量將視情況而定。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question from the line of Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Scott Siefers、Piper Sandler。

Maybe, Rob, I was just curious if you could talk sort of broadly or at a top level about your ability to sustain positive NII momentum once the Fed stops raising rates. And I think some of the factors or puts and takes will be sort of self-evident, but I would just be curious to hear in your words what you think the big movers are each way.

也許，羅布，我只是好奇你是否可以廣泛地或在高層談論一旦美聯儲停止加息，你是否有能力維持積極的 NII 勢頭。而且我認為一些因素或看跌期權將是不言而喻的，但我很想听聽你的話，你認為大推動者是什麼。

Well, I mean, I think you said it. I think it's somewhat self-evident. As the Fed continues to raise rates, we will see increases in NII. Obviously, we'll see some higher expenses on the funding part, which gets to the margin. But it will continue to go up as the Fed rates continues to raise rates, at which point they stop doing that, then things will slow down, but that's probably into '23 as we take a look at our forecast.

嗯，我的意思是，我想你說的。我覺得有點不言自明。隨著美聯儲繼續加息，我們將看到 NII 增加。顯然，我們會在資金部分看到一些更高的費用，這會達到利潤。但隨著美聯儲利率繼續加息，它將繼續上升，此時他們停止這樣做，然後事情會放緩，但這可能會持續到 23 年，因為我們看看我們的預測。

It's going to be a bit of a mechanical exercise. So if you assume the Fed is done, if you look at past cycles, you'll see banks continue to increase rates as deposits get scarce. So there's a little bit of beta creation.

這將是一個機械練習。因此，如果您假設美聯儲已經完成，如果您查看過去的周期，您會看到銀行繼續提高利率，因為存款變得稀缺。因此，有一些測試版的創建。

Funding, right.

資金，對。

Offsetting that, more than offsetting that in our case, because our -- the short-dated nature of our securities book is the roll down of the securities that mature and then get redeployed it to then higher yields, right?

抵消這一點，而不是在我們的案例中抵消這一點，因為我們的證券賬簿的短期性質是到期證券的滾動，然後將其重新部署到更高的收益率，對嗎？

So it will be that fight against where the deposit prices go once the Fed stops versus the roll down of the book and the reprice of the yields on the book.

因此，這將是與美聯儲停止後存款價格走向的鬥爭與賬面滾動和賬面收益率重新定價的鬥爭。

Which is self-evident, yes.

這是不言而喻的，是的。

Okay. Perfect. And then if I can go back to Rob, your comments from the last question on repurchase. So I guess just sort of curious, when you think of sort of the conditions and why you order wouldn't keep up the third quarter's more elevated level. It looks like you guys are among the very few that still has very good capacity to repurchase. What are you thinking? Was it just like the stock price in the third quarter? Or are you sort of just there's enough uncertainty in the macro? Or does like TCE begin to enter into the equation in addition to regulatory capital levels? What are those conditions that you guys are weighing?

好的。完美的。然後，如果我可以回到 Rob，您對上一個關於回購的問題的評論。所以我想只是有點好奇，當你想到一些條件以及為什麼你的訂單不能跟上第三季度更高的水平時。看起來你們是少數仍然有很好的回購能力的人之一。你在想什麼？和第三季度的股價一樣嗎？或者你只是在宏觀上有足夠的不確定性？或者，除了監管資本水平之外，TCE 是否也開始進入等式？你們正在權衡的那些條件是什麼？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

Yes.

是的。

I'd say all of the above other than maybe the TCE, that's not as much of a driver because it's not part of our regulatory capital.

我想說的是除了 TCE 之外的所有上述內容，這不是驅動因素，因為它不是我們監管資本的一部分。

Next question, please.

下一個問題，請。

Our next question is from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Can you guys share with us, we're hearing some commentary in the commercial real estate markets that loan availability is becoming tighter, particularly to equity REITs. And you guys obviously are players in the commercial real estate market. Can you tell us what you're seeing and the risk you're assessing and what the outlook is for your commercial real estate loan book?

你們能否與我們分享一下，我們在商業房地產市場上聽到了一些評論，即貸款供應變得越來越緊張，特別是對於股權房地產投資信託基金。你們顯然是商業房地產市場的參與者。您能告訴我們您所看到的情況、您正在評估的風險以及您的商業房地產貸款賬簿的前景如何？

Just a general comment. Our exposure to REIT has grown as some of the capital markets opportunities (inaudible) have declined. But some REITs are risky and some aren't depending on what their underlying property types are. And we price for risk and decline risk when it's the right thing to do.

只是一般性評論。隨著一些資本市場機會（聽不清）的減少，我們對 REIT 的敞口有所增加。但有些 REITs 是有風險的，有些則不取決於它們的基礎財產類型是什麼。我們為風險定價並在正確的時候降低風險。

Very good. Recognizing credit is still very strong and your nonperforming asset ratios are strong. I was curious, I saw in your detail that you gave, which is some of the best out there, about increases in C&I nonperforming loans. And then also, I think there was an increase in the 30 to 89-day category. I know in your press release, you talked about some processing issues. Can you expand upon that and talk a little bit about that -- those line items?

很好。認可信用仍然非常強，並且您的不良資產比率很高。我很好奇，我在您提供的關於 C&I 不良貸款增加的詳細信息中看到了一些最好的信息。然後，我認為 30 到 89 天的類別有所增加。我知道在您的新聞稿中，您談到了一些處理問題。您能否對此進行擴展並談一談——那些行項目？

Yes. Sure. Want me to go ahead?

是的。當然。要我繼續嗎？

Yes, on the delinquencies, Gerard, and I mentioned it in my comments, the increase was entirely driven by administrative delinquencies, which have largely been resolved. So delinquencies adjusted for that are essentially flat, maybe even down a little bit. On the nonperformers, they are up a little bit. But as you know, we're coming up off of such, such low, low levels that some increase is inevitable and doesn't necessarily reflect a broader move.

是的，杰拉德（Gerard）和我在評論中提到的拖欠問題完全是由行政拖欠推動的，這些拖欠在很大程度上已得到解決。因此，為此調整的拖欠率基本持平，甚至可能略有下降。在表現不佳的方面，他們略有上升。但如你所知，我們正在從如此低的水平上升，以至於一些增長是不可避免的，並不一定反映更廣泛的舉動。

It also jumps around.

它還會跳來跳去。

Yes, that's right.

是的，這是正確的。

There is no trend in there. It's one shows up, one goes away, and it's off such a small number. It's hard to look at.

那裡沒有趨勢。一個出現，一個消失，而且數量很少。很難看。

Percentage increases.

百分比增加。

Percentage changes quarter-to-quarter.

百分比按季度變化。

Our next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ken Usdin 和 Jefferies 的觀點。

One follow-up on the NII side. I know last quarter, Bill, you had said that you continue to see the rates trajectory continue to move up. We know you had an existing -- preexisting book of swaps that you put on, you said you were going to hold off for now. I'm just wondering if you can help us understand just the philosophy from here as we get potentially towards the high end of the rate cycle? And how the existing book works against the natural asset sensitivity? To the earlier point about can you still continue to move NII growth sequentially after the fourth quarter as we get into next year?

NII 方面的一項後續行動。我知道上個季度，比爾，你說過你繼續看到利率軌跡繼續上升。我們知道你有一本現有的 - 預先存在的掉期書，你說你現在要推遲。我只是想知道當我們可能接近利率週期的高端時，您是否可以幫助我們理解這裡的哲學？現有的書籍如何對抗自然資產敏感性？在我們進入明年的第四季度之後，您是否仍能繼續按順序推動 NII 增長？

You have a lot embedded in that question. So start with the swaps. You will have seen, what's the number of $4 billion, $5 billion, we dropped swap notion.

你在這個問題中有很多內容。所以從交換開始。你會看到，有多少 40 億美元，50 億美元，我們放棄了掉期的概念。

Yes, that's right. Yes.

是的，這是正確的。是的。

This quarter. If you look at our overall exposure to rates, we're basically -- we're flat to even more asset sensitive to where we were 6 months ago. Purposely not wanting to invest into this market, so we've let stuff rolled down and kind of replace what's rolled off but not added. Our book today, I guess, our bond book has a duration of 4.6 years. swap books, 2.5 or 6. 2.3.

本季度。如果您查看我們對利率的整體風險敞口，我們基本上是 - 我們對 6 個月前的資產更加敏感。故意不想投資這個市場，所以我們讓東西滾下來，並取代那些滾下來但沒有添加的東西。我們今天的書，我猜，我們的債券書的久期為 4.6 年。交換書籍，2.5 或 6。 2.3。

So it all rolls down really fast. And it's rolling down off of yields that have 1 handles on them that get replaced today at 4.5 plus, assuming everything stops right here. So there's a big opportunity set in the repricing of that book and then there's an opportunity set and simply adding duration when it's the right time to do that. I don't think it's the right time to do that yet.

所以這一切都很快下降。假設一切都停在這裡，它正在降低具有 1 個手柄的收益率，這些收益率今天被替換為 4.5+。因此，在那本書的重新定價中設置了一個很大的機會，然後有一個機會設置，並在適當的時候簡單地增加持續時間。我認為現在還不是這樣做的合適時機。

So then you can -- you mentioned the swap, the roll down. Can you kind of just help us understand how quickly that current portfolio rolls down. And so as we go forward, should we see a lesser burden then from the 10-Q and given where rates are from that roll down going forward, is that what you're alluding to?

那麼你可以——你提到了交換，下滾。你能不能幫助我們了解當前的投資組合下降的速度有多快。因此，隨著我們繼續前進，我們是否應該看到比 10-Q 更小的負擔，並且考慮到未來利率下降的情況，這就是你所暗示的嗎？

Yes. I mean the duration of the swap books 2.3 years, Rob saying, so it's all bullet maturity. So I'm guessing you're going to see a (inaudible) year.

是的。我的意思是交換書的期限為 2.3 年，Rob 說，所以這都是子彈到期。所以我猜你會看到（聽不清）一年。

Okay. Got it. And at this point, you're at the point where you're out to protect further out down the road, your point, Bill, is just that you'll see how that develops at that point at which time you decide, okay, we now have to think about the downside risk?

好的。知道了。在這一點上，你已經到了進一步保護的地步，比爾，你的觀點只是你會看到在你決定的那個時候它是如何發展的，好吧，我們現在要考慮下行風險？

Yes. So we are today much more exposed to down rates than we are to operate. We make lots of money when rates go up or even if they stay just where they are here. We're underinvested, we're asset sensitive. The pieces of that you shouldn't get too hung up on. The exposure we have has fairly short maturities, both on the swap side and on the bond side. And so simply staying where we are gives us the opportunity to reinvest what matures at higher yields, whether that's swaps rolling off or bonds rolling off, and we're going to do that. We will also, at some point, add to get rid of some of the asset sensitivity. We're just not doing that yet.

是的。因此，我們今天面臨的降息比我們要經營的要多得多。當利率上升時，或者即使他們留在原地，我們也會賺很多錢。我們投資不足，我們對資產敏感。你不應該太掛念的部分。我們持有的風險敞口的期限相當短，無論是在互換方面還是在債券方面。因此，只要保持現狀，我們就有機會以更高的收益率再投資到期的資產，無論是掉期還是債券的滾動，我們都會這樣做。我們還將在某個時候添加以消除一些資產敏感性。我們只是還沒有這樣做。

Our next question from the line of Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自富國證券的 Mike Mayo。

Does Rob get a raise because you became more asset-sensitive in the last 6 months?

Rob 得到加薪是因為你在過去 6 個月裡變得對資產更加敏感嗎？

We'll take that as an off-line item.

我們將把它作為一個離線項目。

Okay. I guess no good deed goes unpunished. I mean your rate of growth for NII is slow in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter, quarter-over-quarter. So just follow-up on that last question. Do you think your fourth quarter NII will be a peak? Or do you think it should go higher from there because it could go lower. Because the catch up the lag of deposit pricing, maybe Q2, deposits run off, whether other factors, but other -- mitigated by some of those things about reinvesting swaps and securities. So does it go higher after the fourth quarter? Or you just don't know what's is the likelihood?

好的。我想沒有一件好事會受到懲罰。我的意思是，第四季度 NII 的增長率比第三季度慢，環比增長。所以只是跟進最後一個問題。您認為您的第四季度 NII 會達到頂峰嗎？或者你認為它應該從那裡走高，因為它可能會走低。因為趕上存款定價的滯後，也許是第二季度，存款流失，不管是其他因素，還是其他因素——通過再投資掉期和證券的一些事情減輕了。那麼第四季度之後它會走高嗎？或者你只是不知道可能性是多少？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. And why did you go more asset-sensitive 6 months ago? I mean that's different than some of your peers?

好的。為什麼您在 6 個月前對資產更加敏感？我的意思是這和你的一些同齡人不同？

Yes. I've been in a camp for a while in arguments with our economics team. That -- it was going to take a lot higher rates and inflation was going to be exactly what played out. So assuming that what's playing out is what we thought 6 months ago, you don't buy anything. Was that any harder than that.

是的。我在營地里和我們的經濟團隊爭論了一段時間。那 - 這將需要更高的利率，而通貨膨脹將正是如此。因此，假設正在發生的事情是我們 6 個月前的想法，那麼你什麼都不會買。是不是比那更難。

Asset sensitivity, right.

資產敏感性，對。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. And then why are deposit betas for you and really the industry outperforming? What have people gotten wrong in their modeling? When you look at your model, what hasn't taken place? Or is it just yet to take place?

好的。那麼為什麼存款貝塔對你和整個行業來說都表現出色？人們在建模中做錯了什麼？當您查看您的模型時，什麼沒有發生？還是還沒有發生？

Yes, I don't know the answer to that, Mike. I mean the consumer money is stickier than everybody.

是的，我不知道答案，邁克。我的意思是消費者的錢比每個人都更粘。

That's the answer. That's relative to our expectations the consumers moved more slowly than we would have thought.

這就是答案。這與我們的預期相比，消費者的移動速度比我們想像的要慢。

Yes. Corporates are kind of doing what you would otherwise expect depending on their size. Money market yields are doing what you'd otherwise expect, so you have a set of boundaries on competition from money funds and you have a set of boundaries and competition from high-rate deposit accounts, the online deposit accounts. So it's really just the repricing of the core consumer just occurs slower than I think the industry assumed.

是的。企業會根據他們的規模做你所期望的事情。貨幣市場收益率正在做你所期望的事情，所以你有一套與貨幣基金競爭的界限，你有一套來自高利率存款賬戶的界限和競爭，即在線存款賬戶。所以這實際上只是核心消費者的重新定價比我認為行業假設的要慢。

Our next question comes from the line of Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Bill Carcache。

Bill, you said that you don't think it's time to add duration yet. Can you give some color on the trigger you're looking for?

比爾，你說你認為現在還不是增加持續時間的時候。你能給你正在尋找的觸發器一些顏色嗎？

I would tell you that we're probably getting close, but I continue to think and we've seen a lot of this play out at the back end of the curve is going to sell off here. I mean my base expectation is that it's going to be tough to get inflation down. They even have a 2 handle on it. But I do think the Fed is going to pause at some point. When they do that, inflation is still sticky. I think you're going to see the curve flatten. So I just -- it's tough to want to lock in term rates at the moment and essentially eat negative carry 3 months from now.

我會告訴你，我們可能已經接近了，但我繼續認為，我們已經看到曲線後端的很多這種情況會在這裡被拋售。我的意思是，我的基本預期是，要讓通脹下降會很困難。他們甚至有一個 2 手柄。但我確實認為美聯儲會在某個時候暫停。當他們這樣做時，通貨膨脹仍然很棘手。我想你會看到曲線變平。所以我只是 - 目前很難鎖定定期利率並在 3 個月後基本上吃負利差。

Or longer.

或者更長。

No, you'd go negative in 3 months based on foresight. It's -- we need to see some semblance of when and how the Fed is going to stop and whether or not inflation is really move towards 2 or just kind of gotten down to the low 3s and sticks there, which is what I'm afraid might happen.

不，根據遠見，您會在 3 個月內轉為負數。這是 - 我們需要看到美聯儲何時以及如何停止的一些相似之處，以及通脹是否真的向 2 移動，或者只是下降到低 3 並堅持在那裡，這就是我所擔心的可能發生。

Understood. That's really helpful. Separately, many banks talked about deposit growth that they're generating under QE as their expectation that it would be sticky. Some others were less certain. Can you speak to that dynamic broadly at the industry level? And then maybe specifically, whether you expect PNC's interest-bearing versus noninterest-bearing deposits to ultimately remix back to pre-COVID levels?

明白了。這真的很有幫助。另外，許多銀行談到他們在量化寬鬆政策下產生的存款增長，因為他們預計這將是粘性的。其他一些人則不太確定。你能在行業層面廣泛談論這種動態嗎？然後也許具體來說，您是否預計 PNC 的有息存款與無息存款最終會重新混合回 COVID 之前的水平？

Yes. I mean, well, for the industry, it's all pretty straightforward. You see it there. I would say following -- at the altitude you're asking the question, following the flood of liquidity and deposits in the system, we're going to see those recede. And then in regard to the mix between net interest-bearing and -- or noninterest-bearing and interest-bearing, we'll see that shift. We're already starting to see it on the corporate side, but the bulk of our deposits in terms of the core deposits, it's the same ratio of 33% noninterest-bearing, 2/3 interest-bearing.

是的。我的意思是，對於這個行業來說，這一切都非常簡單。你在那裡看到它。我想說跟隨——在你提出問題的高度，隨著系統中流動性和存款的氾濫，我們將看到這些消退。然後關於淨計息和 - 或非計息和計息之間的混合，我們將看到這種轉變。我們已經開始在企業方面看到它，但我們的大部分存款就核心存款而言，是相同的比例，33% 無息，2/3 有息。

Got it. And on your debt as a percentage of your overall funding that ticked up a little bit this quarter, but it's still below 4Q '19. Is it reasonable to expect that's going to remix back to pre-COVID levels?

知道了。你的債務佔總資金的百分比在本季度略有上升，但仍低於 19 年第四季度。期望這將重新混合回 COVID 之前的水平是否合理？

You have to -- I mean, at some point in time, you would expect that to occur. That's a function of where you think liquidity is going to go from the deposit side. But I don't know what timeline that would otherwise follow.

你必須——我的意思是，在某個時間點，你會期望這種情況發生。這是您認為流動性將從存款方面流向何處的函數。但我不知道否則會遵循什麼時間表。

Okay. That helps. And then finally, when the tailoring rules were coming together, you guys did a good job of articulating why Main Street banks like yourselves don't pose systemic risk to the financial system. Can you speak to some of what's happening now and how you're positioned for the risk that regulatory scrutiny could intensify somewhat for the super regionals?

好的。這有幫助。最後，當量身定制的規則結合在一起時，你們很好地闡明了為什麼像你們這樣的普通銀行不會對金融系統構成系統性風險。您能否談談現在正在發生的一些事情，以及您如何應對監管審查可能對超級地區企業有所加強的風險？

So on the TLAC and SPOE issue?

那麼關於 TLAC 和 SPOE 問題呢？

Yes.

是的。

Yes. Well, Bill, you want to open up and I could add color.

是的。好吧，比爾，你想打開，我可以添加顏色。

Well, just a couple of thoughts. I mean 1 is, obviously, there's a lot of conversation about it. But at this point, there's no formal proposals or anything to look at. So from our view, it's just observations and speculation. If we observe what's in place with the G-SIBs, our conclusion is it's not necessary for large regional banks, to your point, we thought that came through in the tailoring 95% plus of what we do is within the bank.

好吧，只是一些想法。我的意思是 1 顯然，有很多關於它的討論。但在這一點上，沒有正式的建議或任何可看的東西。所以在我們看來，這只是觀察和推測。如果我們觀察 G-SIBs 的情況，我們的結論是大型區域性銀行沒有必要，就您的觀點而言，我們認為我們所做的 95% 以上是在銀行內部完成的。

99%.

99%。

99%, well -- that's 95% plus.

99%，嗯——那是 95% 以上。

So again, a simple structure, and it's unclear to us why an SPOE would need to be on top of what's already in place with the FDIC and the deposit insurance fund. So that has us a bit perplexed.

再說一次，一個簡單的結構，我們不清楚為什麼 SPOE 需要在 FDIC 和存款保險基金已經存在的基礎上。所以這讓我們有點困惑。

Our next question is from the line of Michael Rose with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Michael Rose 和 Raymond James。

I was hoping to get some color on the health of your borrowers at this point and maybe if there's any unwillingness to lend into certain asset class at this point. I'm hearing more and more on the construction side, the banks are pulling back. We just love any updates that you have on the commercial and the consumer side?

我希望在這一點上了解您的借款人的健康狀況，也許此時是否有任何不願意借入某些資產類別的信息。我在建築方面聽到越來越多的消息，銀行正在撤退。我們只是喜歡您在商業和消費者方面的任何更新？

I'm not sure what you're referring to about construction. But broadly, we haven't seen any change in our credit book. I mean, we're seeing balances increase in credit card, which is a good thing. So people are finally drawing down on credit. But we really haven't seen deterioration in the performance of the book across anything. In terms of what we lend to, we just don't -- we don't change our credit box. We have a set of criteria that we lend to will change price and certain asset classes, prices are going up or in certain classes. Auto is an example where spreads are just too tight relative to where we want to lend. I can't think of any other examples where...

不知道你說的是什麼建築。但總的來說，我們的信用記錄沒有任何變化。我的意思是，我們看到信用卡餘額增加了，這是一件好事。所以人們終於開始使用信貸了。但我們真的沒有看到這本書在任何方面的表現都有所下降。就我們藉給什麼而言，我們只是不 - 我們不改變我們的信用箱。我們有一套標準，我們藉給這些標準會改變價格和某些資產類別，價格正在上漲或某些類別。汽車是一個例子，相對於我們想要放貸的地方，點差太小了。我想不出任何其他的例子...

No, no. And we operate, as you know, mostly in the higher point of the spectrum in terms of credit quality. So investment grade and prime space and consumer approach is the same.

不，不。如您所知，我們的業務主要在信用質量方面處於較高水平。所以投資級別和黃金地段和消費方式是一樣的。

But if it's real estate construction, we've been active in the multifamily side. If you're looking at sort of smaller real estate...

但如果是房地產建設，我們一直活躍在多戶家庭方面。如果您正在尋找較小的房地產...

Higher risk. Yes, we were never there.

風險較高。是的，我們從來沒有去過那裡。

We Were never in that business to begin with. Yes. That's kind of a smaller bank activity.

我們一開始就沒有從事過這項業務。是的。這是一種較小的銀行活動。

All right. Maybe just 1 follow-up. I appreciate the fourth quarter guide. I think as it relates to PPNR for the full year, it seems like even with the fourth quarter guide, maybe being a little bit softer than where consensus was, you guys are squarely within the ranges for full year revenue and noninterest expense. Is that the way we should be reading it?

好的。也許只有 1 次跟進。我很欣賞第四季度的指南。我認為，由於它與全年的 PPNR 相關，似乎即使有了第四季度的指南，可能比共識的情況要軟一些，你們完全在全年收入和非利息費用的範圍內。這是我們應該閱讀的方式嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

(Operator Instructions) And our next question comes from the line of Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

This is Nathan Stein on behalf of Matt O'Connor. So 3Q capital markets fees came down versus the really strong 2Q levels, but I think that makes sense just given the macro backdrop. Can you talk about the capital markets outlook from here?

這是代表馬特奧康納的內森斯坦。因此，與第二季度真正強勁的水平相比，第三季度資本市場費用有所下降，但我認為考慮到宏觀背景，這是有道理的。您能從這裡談談資本市場前景嗎？

Sure. Well, the decline in the third quarter was more than just the macroeconomic backdrop. It was off of elevated levels of our Harris Williams unit in the second quarter, which were in effect. We did most of our activity in the first half in the second quarter with Harris Williams. So we knew that, we called that, and we put that into our guidance.

當然。那麼，第三季度的下降不僅僅是宏觀經濟背景。第二季度我們的哈里斯威廉姆斯部門的高水平已經生效，這是有效的。我們在第二節上半場與哈里斯威廉姆斯一起完成了大部分活動。所以我們知道這一點，我們稱之為，並將其納入我們的指導。

And then just going forward in terms of our capital markets view, Harris Williams is the biggest component. Their pipeline is very big. The degree to which they do more or less deals remains to be seen. Our view for the broader category is flattish to down and recognizing there could be some upside or downside depending on the macroeconomic factors you talk about.

然後就我們的資本市場觀點而言，哈里斯威廉姆斯是最大的組成部分。他們的管道非常大。他們或多或少的交易程度還有待觀察。我們對更廣泛類別的看法持平或下跌，並認識到根據您所談論的宏觀經濟因素，可能會有一些上行或下行。

Inside of that space, we actually had a record quarter in loan syndications. And we had a record quarter in middle market loan originations, which is related to that. So there's actually a lot of activity, particularly as the bond markets are drying up that benefits us. Harris Williams just was a big number in the second quarter.

在那個空間內，我們實際上有一個創紀錄的季度貸款銀團。我們在中間市場貸款發放方面創下了創紀錄的季度，這與此有關。所以實際上有很多活動，特別是在債券市場正在枯竭的情況下，這對我們有利。哈里斯威廉姆斯在第二節只是一個大數字。

So when you're going off of that base, it's not as if the core underlying business, ex Harris Williams is strong and it's actually doing quite well. And the M&A market at the moment is tough.

因此，當你離開那個基礎時，就好像核心基礎業務，前哈里斯威廉姆斯很強大，實際上做得很好。目前的併購市場很艱難。

We have a follow-up from John Pancari with Evercore.

我們收到了 John Pancari 對 Evercore 的跟進。

Just real quick on the capital markets revenue on the Harris Williams, can you just remind us what the comp ratio is in that business? And then separately, I just want to see if you can maybe walk through a bit of the outlook for the other larger line items in noninterest income, including the asset management and cash management and others.

哈里斯威廉姆斯的資本市場收入真的很快，你能提醒我們該業務的薪酬比率是多少嗎？然後分開，我只是想看看你是否可以對非利息收入中其他較大的項目的前景進行一些展望，包括資產管理和現金管理等。

Yes. So I mean your question is just around in terms of the fees. In the Harris Williams line item, our efficiency ratio is probably in the mid-70s, just roughly plus or minus. In regard to the outlook in terms of the fees, we'll see -- obviously, I'll just go through the categories, asset management is probably going to see some headwinds. You can see what's going on in the equity markets, although any given day, who knows, but we'll be under some pressure.

是的。所以我的意思是你的問題只是關於費用。在哈里斯威廉姆斯系列項目中，我們的效率比率可能在 70 年代中期，大約是正數或負數。關於費用方面的前景，我們將看到 - 顯然，我將簡單介紹一下類別，資產管理可能會遇到一些不利因素。你可以看到股市正在發生什麼，儘管在任何一天，誰知道呢，但我們會承受一些壓力。

Mortgage obviously included in that. Card and cash management will continue to be strong. We have solid fundamentals there, and that's a steady Eddie, which will continue to expand. And then capital markets, I just spoke about. We sort of see it stable. We could outperform if people want to do deals. The pipeline is there, but it's just -- it's a question of whether the next 90 days, it occurs.

抵押貸款顯然包括在其中。卡和現金管理將繼續強勁。我們在那裡有堅實的基礎，這是一個穩定的埃迪，它將繼續擴大。然後是資本市場，我剛才談到了。我們認為它是穩定的。如果人們想做交易，我們可能會跑贏大盤。管道就在那裡，但只是——問題在於接下來的 90 天是否會發生。

And we appear to have no further questions on the phone line.

我們似乎在電話線上沒有其他問題。

Okay. Well, thank you for joining the call today. And if you have any further follow-up questions, please feel free to reach out to the IR team. Thank you, and have a good day.

好的。好吧，感謝您今天加入電話會議。如果您有任何進一步的後續問題，請隨時與 IR 團隊聯繫。謝謝你，有一個美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝你。