PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Well, good morning, and welcome to today's conference call for the PNC Financial Services Group. Participating on this call are PNC's Chairman, President and CEO, Bill Demchak; and Rob Reilly, Executive Vice President and CFO.

早上好，歡迎參加今天的 PNC 金融服務集團電話會議。參加本次電話會議的有 PNC 董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Bill Demchak；以及執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Rob Reilly。

Today's presentation contains forward-looking information. Cautionary statements about this information as well as reconciliations of non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release materials as well as our SEC filings and other investor materials. These are all available on our corporate website, pnc.com, under Investor Relations. These statements speak only as of July 18, 2023, and PNC undertakes no obligation to update them.

今天的演示包含前瞻性信息。有關此信息的警告性聲明以及非公認會計原則措施的調節包含在今天的收益發布材料以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件和其他投資者材料中。這些都可以在我們公司網站 pnc.com 的“投資者關係”下找到。這些聲明僅截至 2023 年 7 月 18 日，PNC 不承擔更新義務。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bill.

現在我想把電話轉給比爾。

Thank you, Bryan, and good morning, everyone. As you can see on the slide, we delivered solid results in the second quarter, generating exactly $1.5 billion in net income or $3.36 in diluted earnings per share. While the macro environment and the competitive dynamics playing out within the banking sector pressured our revenue during the quarter. Our results reflect the overall strength of our franchise and balance sheet. And importantly, through it all, we remained focused on executing on our strategic priorities.

謝謝布萊恩，大家早上好。正如您在幻燈片中看到的，我們在第二季度取得了穩健的業績，淨收入恰好為 15 億美元，攤薄每股收益為 3.36 美元。儘管宏觀環境和銀行業內部的競爭動態給我們本季度的收入帶來壓力。我們的業績反映了我們的特許經營權和資產負債表的整體實力。重要的是，在這一切過程中，我們仍然專注於執行我們的戰略重點。

Our momentum across our markets remain strong, especially in the Southwest. We are growing households and commercial customers throughout our footprint. Rob will take you through the details of our second quarter results in a moment, but I'd like to call out a few highlights.

我們在整個市場的勢頭仍然強勁，尤其是在西南地區。我們的業務範圍內的家庭和商業客戶不斷增長。羅布稍後將向您介紹我們第二季度業績的詳細信息，但我想指出一些亮點。

First, we grew our capital during the quarter and feel very good about our positioning of our balance sheet in the current environment. In the next few weeks, we expect the Fed will announce changes to the Basel III capital framework. We believe our strong capital and liquidity levels as well as our earnings power provide the strength and flexibility to address upcoming regulatory changes. At the same time, we continue to support our customers, grow our business and deliver returns for our shareholders. And in line with our focus on shareholder returns, we recently increased our quarterly common stock dividend by $0.05.

首先，我們在本季度增加了資本，並對當前環境下的資產負債表定位感到非常滿意。在接下來的幾週內，我們預計美聯儲將宣布對巴塞爾協議 III 資本框架的變更。我們相信，我們強大的資本和流動性水平以及盈利能力為應對即將到來的監管變化提供了實力和靈活性。與此同時，我們繼續支持客戶、發展業務並為股東帶來回報。為了與我們對股東回報的關注相一致，我們最近將季度普通股股息增加了 0.05 美元。

Our financial strength and stability are evidenced in the Fed's latest stress tests resulting in an improvement in our stressed capital buffer to the regulatory minimum level of 2.5% in October. Second, expense control is in focus. Rob will touch on this in a moment, but we have increased our continuous improvement program target for 2023 and are taking a hard look at opportunities for even further expense improvements across the franchise. Third, credit quality for the quarter remained strong, reflecting our diversified lending franchise and our focus on developing valuable, sustainable businesses based on long-term customer relationships.

美聯儲最新的壓力測試證明了我們的財務實力和穩定性，導致我們的壓力資本緩沖在 10 月份改善至監管最低水平 2.5%。二是注重費用控制。 Rob 稍後會談到這一點，但我們已經提高了 2023 年的持續改進計劃目標，並且正在認真尋找進一步改善整個特許經營費用的機會。第三，本季度的信貸質量依然強勁，反映出我們多元化的貸款業務以及我們專注於在長期客戶關係的基礎上開發有價值、可持續的業務。

And finally, I'd like to thank our employees for their efforts and contributions during the quarter. And with that, I'll turn it over to Rob.

最後，我要感謝我們的員工在本季度所做的努力和貢獻。有了這個，我會把它交給羅布。

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Our balance sheet is on Slide 3, and we're presenting on an average basis and comparing to the first quarter. Loans were stable at $325 billion, investment securities declined $2 billion or 2%. Cash balances at the Federal Reserve were $31 billion and decreased $3 billion. Deposits of $426 billion declined $10 billion or 2%. Borrowed funds increased $3 billion. As an aside, since 2021, we've been deliberate in issuing TLAC-compliant debt. So we're confident we'll meet the upcoming TLAC requirement through our normal course of funding.

謝謝比爾，大家早上好。我們的資產負債表在幻燈片 3 上，我們以平均值為基礎進行展示並與第一季度進行比較。貸款穩定在 3,250 億美元，投資證券下降 20 億美元，即 2%。美聯儲現金餘額為 310 億美元，減少 30 億美元。 4,260 億美元的存款減少了 100 億美元，即 2%。借入資金增加 30 億美元。順便說一句，自 2021 年以來，我們一直在慎重發行符合 TLAC 要求的債務。因此，我們有信心通過正常的融資過程滿足即將到來的 TLAC 要求。

At quarter end, AOCI was a negative $9.5 billion. Intangible book value was $77.8 per common share, an increase of 5% compared to the same period a year ago. We remain well capitalized with an estimated CET1 ratio of 9.5% as of June 30, 2023, which increased 30 basis points linked quarter. We have returned approximately $700 million of capital to shareholders in the quarter, which included $600 million of common dividends and approximately $100 million of share repurchases for 1.1 million shares.

截至季度末，AOCI 為負 95 億美元。無形賬面價值為每股普通股77.8美元，比去年同期增長5%。截至 2023 年 6 月 30 日，我們的資本充足，預計 CET1 比率為 9.5%，環比增長 30 個基點。本季度我們向股東返還了約 7 億美元的資本，其中包括 6 億美元的普通股股息以及約 1 億美元的 110 萬股股票回購。

And as Bill just mentioned, our Board recently approved a $0.05 increase to our quarterly cash dividend on common stock raising the dividend to $1.55 per share.

正如比爾剛才提到的，我們的董事會最近批准將普通股季度現金股息增加 0.05 美元，將股息提高至每股 1.55 美元。

Our recent CCAR results underscore the strength of our balance sheet. And as previously announced, our current stress capital buffer of 2.9% will improve to the regulatory minimum of 2.5% for the 4-quarter period beginning in October 2023.

我們最近的 CCAR 業績凸顯了我們資產負債表的實力。正如之前宣布的，我們目前 2.9% 的壓力資本緩衝將在 2023 年 10 月開始的第四季度改善至監管最低水平 2.5%。

Due to the expected issuance by the federal banking agencies of proposed rules to adjust the Basel III capital framework share repurchase activity in the third quarter is expected to remain modest. We will continue to monitor this and may adjust share repurchase activity as appropriate.

由於預計聯邦銀行機構將發布調整巴塞爾協議III資本框架的擬議規則，預計第三季度的股份回購活動將保持溫和。我們將繼續監控這一情況，並可能酌情調整股票回購活動。

Slide 4 shows our loans in more detail. Second quarter loans averaged $325 billion and increased $20 billion or 6% compared to the same period a year ago. This growth reflected strong loan demands during the back half of 2022, and our ability to capitalize on opportunities in our expanded franchise. Average loan balances were stable linked quarter as growth in consumer was offset by a decline in commercial with commercial balances reflecting generally weaker demand.

幻燈片 4 更詳細地展示了我們的貸款。第二季度貸款平均為 3250 億美元，與去年同期相比增加了 200 億美元，增幅為 6%。這一增長反映出 2022 年下半年強勁的貸款需求，以及我們利用擴大的特許經營機會的能力。平均貸款餘額環比穩定，因為消費者的增長被商業貸款的下降所抵消，商業餘額反映出需求普遍疲軟。

Consumer loans grew $400 million compared to the first quarter, reflecting higher residential mortgage, credit card and auto balances. Commercial loans averaged $223 billion in the second quarter, a decline of $1 billion as limited new production was more than offset by paydowns. Loan yields increased 28 basis points to 5.57% in the second quarter, predominantly driven by the higher rate environment.

消費貸款較第一季度增長 4 億美元，反映出住宅抵押貸款、信用卡和汽車餘額增加。第二季度商業貸款平均為 2230 億美元，減少了 10 億美元，因為有限的新產量被還款所抵消。第二季度貸款收益率上升 28 個基點至 5.57%，主要是受利率上升環境的推動。

Slide 5 covers our deposits in more detail. Deposits declined 2% on both a spot and average basis linked quarter, reflecting the continuing pressure of quantitative tightening and increased spending activity as well as consumer tax payments. Deposits continue to move from noninterest-bearing to interest-bearing accounts. As expected, the mix shift is being driven by commercial deposits.

幻燈片 5 更詳細地介紹了我們的存款。與季度相比，即期存款和平均存款均下降 2%，反映出量化緊縮、支出活動增加以及消費者稅支付的持續壓力。存款繼續從無息賬戶轉向有息賬戶。正如預期的那樣，這種結構轉變是由商業存款推動的。

In the second quarter, commercial noninterest-bearing deposits represented 45% of total commercial deposits compared to 47% in the first quarter. Our consumer deposit noninterest-bearing mix has been stable, remaining at 10%. On a consolidated basis, our level of noninterest-bearing deposits was 27% in the second quarter, down slightly from 28% in the first quarter, consistent with our expectations, and we still expect the noninterest-bearing portion of our deposits to stabilize in the mid-20% range.

第二季度，商業無息存款佔商業存款總額的45%，而第一季度為47%。我們的無息消費存款結構一直穩定，保持在 10%。綜合來看，第二季度我們的無息存款水平為27%，略低於一季度的28%，符合我們的預期，我們仍然預計存款的無息部分穩定在20%左右的區間。

Our rate paid on interest-bearing deposits increased to 1.96% during the second quarter, up from 1.66% in the prior quarter. And as of June 30, our cumulative deposit beta was 39%. Looking forward, we expect the Federal Reserve to raise the benchmark rate by 25 basis points in July. We believe this will put additional pressure on betas, and as a result, we expect our third quarter and year-end cumulative betas to be 42% and 44%, respectively.

第二季度我們的計息存款利率從上一季度的 1.66% 上升至 1.96%。截至 6 月 30 日，我們的累計存款貝塔值為 39%。展望未來，我們預計美聯儲7月份將基準利率上調25個基點。我們相信這會給貝塔值帶來額外的壓力，因此，我們預計第三季度和年底的累計貝塔值將分別為 42% 和 44%。

Slide 6 details our investment securities and swap portfolios. Average investment securities of $141 billion decreased $2.4 billion or 2%. This limited purchase activity during the quarter was more than offset by portfolio paydowns and maturities. The securities portfolio yield increased 3 basis points to 2.52%, reflecting the runoff of lower-yielding securities. And as of June 30, the duration of the investment securities portfolio was 4.2 years.

幻燈片 6 詳細介紹了我們的投資證券和掉期投資組合。平均證券投資額為 1,410 億美元，減少了 24 億美元，即 2%。本季度有限的購買活動被投資組合支付和到期所抵消。證券投資組合收益率上升 3 個基點至 2.52%，反映出低收益證券的流失。截至6月30日，投資證券組合的久期為4.2年。

Our received fixed swaps pointed to the commercial loan book totaled $40 billion at the end of the second quarter. The weighted average received fixed rate of our swap portfolio increased 25 basis points linked quarter to 1.73%. And the portfolio duration was 2.3 years as of June 30.

我們收到的固定掉期表明，第二季度末商業貸款總額為 400 億美元。我們掉期投資組合的加權平均固定利率環比增長 25 個基點至 1.73%。截至6月30日，投資組合久期為2.3年。

During the second quarter, our accumulated other comprehensive loss increased by $400 million. Paydowns and maturities were in line with our expectations, but were more than offset by the negative impact from higher-than-expected rates throughout the quarter.

第二季度，我們累計其他綜合虧損增加了 4 億美元。還款額和到期日符合我們的預期，但被整個季度高於預期的利率帶來的負面影響所抵消。

Notwithstanding this AOCI impact, our tangible book value increased 1% to $77.80 compared to March 31. Importantly, as lower rate securities and swaps roll off, we expect our securities yields to continue to increase, resulting in a meaningful improvement to tangible book value from AOCI accretion.

儘管受到 AOCI 的影響，與 3 月 31 日相比，我們的有形賬面價值仍增長了 1%，達到 77.80 美元。重要的是，隨著利率較低的證券和掉期的推出，我們預計我們的證券收益率將繼續增加，從而使 AOCI 的增加對有形賬面價值產生有意義的改善。

Turning to the income statement on Slide 7. For the first half of 2023, revenue grew 11% compared to the same period a year ago, reflecting higher interest rates and overall business growth.

轉向幻燈片 7 上的損益表。2023 年上半年，收入較上年同期增長 11%，反映出更高的利率和整體業務增長。

Noninterest expense grew 4% and was well controlled despite a higher FDIC assessment rate and inflationary pressures. As a result, PPNR grew 24%. For the second quarter, net income was $1.5 billion or $3.36 per share. Total revenue of $5.3 billion decreased $310 million or 6% compared to the first quarter of 2023.

儘管 FDIC 評估率較高且通脹壓力較高，但非利息支出增長了 4%，且得到良好控制。結果，PPNR 增長了 24%。第二季度淨利潤為 15 億美元，即每股 3.36 美元。總收入為 53 億美元，與 2023 年第一季度相比減少了 3.1 億美元，即 6%。

Net interest income declined $75 million or 2%, and our net interest margin was 2.79%, a decline of 5 basis points. Noninterest income declined $235 million or 12%, driven by both lower fee income and other noninterest income, which included Visa fair value adjustments of a negative $83 million that I will discuss in a moment.

淨利息收入下降 7500 萬美元，下降 2%，淨息差為 2.79%，下降 5 個基點。非利息收入下降了 2.35 億美元，即 12%，原因是費用收入和其他非利息收入下降，其中包括 Visa 公允價值調整負 8300 萬美元，我稍後將討論這一點。

Second quarter expenses increased $51 million or 2% linked quarter. Provision was $146 million in the second quarter, reflecting portfolio activity and changes in macroeconomic variables. And our effective tax rate was 15.5%, which included the favorable impact of certain tax matters in the second quarter.

第二季度費用增加 5100 萬美元，環比增加 2%。第二季度準備金為 1.46 億美元，反映了投資組合活動和宏觀經濟變量的變化。我們的有效稅率為15.5%，其中包括第二季度某些稅務事項的有利影響。

Turning to Slide 8. We highlight our revenue trends. Second quarter revenue was down $310 million or 6% compared with the first quarter. Net interest income of $3.5 billion decreased $75 million or 2% as higher yields on interest-earning assets were more than offset by increased funding costs and lower loan and security balances. Fee income was $1.7 billion and decreased $106 million or 6% linked quarter.

轉向幻燈片 8。我們重點介紹我們的收入趨勢。第二季度收入較第一季度下降 3.1 億美元，即 6%。淨利息收入 35 億美元減少了 7500 萬美元，即 2%，因為生息資產收益率的上升被融資成本增加以及貸款和擔保餘額減少所抵消。費用收入為 17 億美元，環比減少 1.06 億美元，即 6%。

The primary driver of the decline in fee income was residential and commercial mortgage revenue, which was down $79 million. Inside of that $58 million was related to lower net valuation of mortgage servicing rights. Beyond that, capital markets and advisory revenue decreased $49 million or 19%, driven by lower merger and acquisition advisory fees and loan syndication revenue.

費用收入下降的主要驅動因素是住宅和商業抵押貸款收入，減少了 7900 萬美元。其中 5800 萬美元與抵押貸款服務權淨估值較低有關。除此之外，由於併購諮詢費和銀團貸款收入下降，資本市場和諮詢收入減少了 4900 萬美元，即 19%。

Going forward, we expect this activity to meaningfully increase in the second half of the year, which is included in our guidance that I will cover in a few minutes.

展望未來，我們預計這項活動將在今年下半年顯著增加，這包含在我將在幾分鐘內介紹的我們的指導中。

Partially offsetting these declines was a $38 million or 6% increase in card and cash management fees, reflecting seasonally higher consumer transaction volumes and increased treasury management product revenue. Other noninterest income of $129 million declined 50% linked quarter, driven by lower private equity revenue and included negative Visa fair value adjustments related to litigation escrow funding and other valuation changes totaling $83 million.

銀行卡和現金管理費增加了 3800 萬美元，即 6%，部分抵消了這些下降，反映出季節性消費者交易量的增加和資金管理產品收入的增加。其他非利息收入為 1.29 億美元，環比下降 50%，原因是私募股權收入下降，其中包括與訴訟託管資金相關的 Visa 公允價值負調整和總計 8,300 萬美元的其他估值變化。

Turning to Slide 9. Our second quarter expenses were up $51 million or 2% linked quarter and remain well controlled. The growth was primarily due to a $35 million increase in marketing expense, reflecting seasonality. Personnel expense increased by $20 million or 1%, which included the full quarter impact of annual employee merit increases. Every other expense category remained stable or declined compared to the first quarter of 2023.

轉向幻燈片 9。我們第二季度的支出增加了 5100 萬美元，環比增長了 2%，並且仍然受到良好控制。這一增長主要是由於季節性營銷費用增加了 3500 萬美元。人事費用增加了 2000 萬美元，即 1%，其中包括年度員工績效增長對整個季度的影響。與 2023 年第一季度相比，其他所有費用類別均保持穩定或下降。

As Bill mentioned, we remain diligent in our expense management efforts, particularly when considering the current revenue environment. At the beginning of the year, we set a continuous improvement program goal of $400 million. Recently, we have identified initiatives that support increasing our CIP by an additional $50 million, raising our full year target to $450 million. Further, we'll continue to look for additional efficiencies during the remainder of 2023 and importantly, as we begin to plan for 2024.

正如比爾提到的，我們仍然勤奮地進行費用管理工作，特別是考慮到當前的收入環境。今年年初，我們設定了 4 億美元的持續改進計劃目標。最近，我們確定了支持將 CIP 額外增加 5000 萬美元的舉措，將我們的全年目標提高到 4.5 億美元。此外，我們將在 2023 年剩餘時間內繼續尋求更高的效率，更重要的是，我們將開始規劃 2024 年。

Our credit metrics are presented on Slide 10. Our credit quality remains strong and notably, the leading indicators for credit quality continue to perform well. Nonperforming loans were down $97 million or 5% and continue to represent less than 1% of total loans. And total delinquencies of $1.2 billion decreased $114 million or 9% linked quarter. Net charge-offs of $194 million were stable linked quarter. Our annualized net charge-offs to average loans ratio was 24 basis points in the second quarter. And our allowance for credit losses totaled $5.4 billion or 1.7% of total loans on June 30, essentially stable with March 31.

我們的信用指標如幻燈片 10 所示。我們的信用質量依然強勁，值得注意的是，信用質量的領先指標繼續表現良好。不良貸款減少了 9700 萬美元，即 5%，佔貸款總額的比例仍然低於 1%。拖欠總額為 12 億美元，環比減少 1.14 億美元，即 9%。淨沖銷 1.94 億美元是穩定的關聯季度。第二季度我們的年化淨沖銷與平均貸款比率為 24 個基點。截至6月30日，我們的信貸損失準備金總額為54億美元，佔貸款總額的1.7%，與3月31日基本持平。

While overall credit quality remains strong across our portfolio, the office category within commercial real estate continues to be a key area of concern. As expected, we saw increases in charge-offs related to office during the quarter. However, the portfolio metrics remain largely similar to those presented in our comprehensive view last quarter. Naturally, we'll continue to monitor and review our assumptions to ensure they reflect real-time market conditions, and a full update is included in the appendix slides.

雖然我們的投資組合的整體信用質量依然強勁，但商業房地產中的辦公樓類別仍然是令人關注的關鍵領域。正如預期的那樣，本季度與辦公室相關的沖銷有所增加。然而，投資組合指標與我們上季度綜合觀點中提出的指標基本相似。當然，我們將繼續監控和審查我們的假設，以確保它們反映實時市場狀況，並且完整的更新包含在附錄幻燈片中。

In summary, PNC reported a solid second quarter 2023. In regard to our view of the overall economy, we're expecting a mild recession starting in early 2024 with a contraction in real GDP of less than 1%. Our rate path assumption includes a 25 basis point increase in the Fed funds rate in July. Following that, we expect the Fed to pause rate actions until March 2024, when we expect the Fed to begin to cut rates.

總之，PNC 報告稱 2023 年第二季度業績強勁。就我們對整體經濟的看法而言，我們預計 2024 年初開始出現溫和衰退，實際 GDP 收縮幅度將低於 1%。我們的利率路徑假設包括 7 月份聯邦基金利率上調 25 個基點。此後，我們預計美聯儲將暫停利率行動，直到 2024 年 3 月，屆時我們預計美聯儲將開始降息。

Looking ahead, our outlook for the third quarter of 2023 compared to the second quarter of 2023 is as follows: we expect average loans to decline approximately 1%; net interest income to be down 3% to 4%; noninterest income to be up 10% to 11%. Taking the component pieces, we expect total revenue to be up approximately 1%. We expect total noninterest expense to be stable, and we expect second quarter net charge-offs to be between $200 million and $250 million.

展望未來，我們對 2023 年第三季度與 2023 年第二季度相比的展望如下：我們預計平均貸款將下降約 1%；淨利息收入下降3%至4%；非利息收入將增長 10% 至 11%。從各個組成部分來看，我們預計總收入將增長約 1%。我們預計非利息支出總額將保持穩定，並且預計第二季度淨沖銷額將在 2 億至 2.5 億美元之間。

Considering our reported operating results for the first half of 2023 third quarter expectations and current economic forecasts for the full year 2023 compared to full year 2022. We expect spot loans to be relatively stable, which equates to average loan growth of 5% to 6%.

考慮到我們報告的 2023 年第三季度上半年經營業績預期以及當前對 2023 年全年與 2022 年相比的經濟預測。我們預計現貨貸款將相對穩定，相當於平均貸款增長 5% 至 6%。

Total revenue growth to be approximately 2% to 2.5%. Inside of that, our expectation is for net interest income to be in the range of up 5% to 6%. This is a move to the lower end of our previous guidance largely driven by anticipated deposit costs moving a bit faster than we expected and slightly lower loan growth expectations.

總收入增長約為2%至2.5%。其中，我們預計淨利息收入將增長5%至6%。這是我們之前指引的下限，主要是由於預期存款成本的變化略快於我們的預期以及略低於我們的貸款增長預期。

We expect noninterest income to decline 2% to 4%, which is down from our earlier expectations of stable. This change is resulting from softer than expected capital markets revenue in the second quarter and $127 million of Visa-related charges that have been incurred year-to-date. Expenses are expected to be up approximately 2%.

我們預計非利息收入將下降 2% 至 4%，低於我們之前的穩定預期。這一變化是由於第二季度資本市場收入低於預期以及今年迄今已產生 1.27 億美元的 Visa 相關費用所致。費用預計將增加約 2%。

Credit quality is trending better than expected, and we expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 18%. And with that, Bill and I are ready to take your questions.

信貸質量趨勢好於預期，我們預計有效稅率約為 18%。至此，比爾和我準備好回答你們的問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from the line of John Pancari with Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 John Pancari。

On the fee income side, if you could just maybe elaborate a little bit on your -- change in your expectation to down 2% to 4% for the year. I know it represents a change in your view on capital markets as well as the impact of Visa. But I know you indicated you expect a meaningful increase in capital markets in the back half. So maybe if you could kind of talk about what's impacting that and maybe help size it up a bit?

在費用收入方面，如果您能詳細說明一下您的預期，將今年下降 2% 至 4%。我知道這代表了您對資本市場以及 Visa 影響的看法發生了變化。但我知道您表示預計下半年資本市場將出現有意義的增長。那麼，也許您可以談談是什麼影響了這一點，並可能幫助我們稍微調整一下規模？

Yes, sure. John, this is Rob. So in regard to our total noninterest income guidance for the full year, we did change it from stable to down 2% to 4%. Most of that -- in terms of that decline has occurred. So it's really reflective of what occurred in the second quarter in regard to capital market fees, underperforming our expectations and the Visa charge that we talked about, which is not in fees, but is in the other noninterest income.

是的，當然。約翰，這是羅布。因此，對於我們全年的非利息收入總額指導，我們確實將其從穩定調整為下降 2% 至 4%。其中大部分——就下降而言已經發生了。因此，這確實反映了第二季度在資本市場費用方面發生的情況，表現不佳，以及我們談到的 Visa 費用，這不是費用，而是其他非利息收入。

Going forward, we do expect to pickup in capital markets fees, and that's in our guidance, both for the third quarter and the balance of the year. Just to give you some more color around that, we expect capital markets to get back to in the third quarter, the first quarter levels run rate that we were at and then some meaningful growth on top of that as well. And that's all in our guidance. So in short order, the decline in the guidance has already occurred, and we blended that into the full year.

展望未來，我們確實預計資本市場費用將會上升，這在我們的指導中，無論是第三季度還是今年剩餘時間。為了讓您對此有更多了解，我們預計資本市場將在第三季度恢復到第一季度的運行水平，然後在此基礎上還會出現一些有意義的增長。這就是我們的指導。因此，短期內，指引的下降已經發生，我們將其納入全年。

Okay. All right. That's helpful. And then separately on the capital return side, I know you indicated that you expect buybacks trending somewhat minimal. So just pending Basel III, is that meaning, I mean, perhaps in that $100 million range? Or is there another way to think about that? And then separately, maybe, Bill, if you can talk about any thought around M&A appetite, both on the nonbank side and the bank side?

好的。好的。這很有幫助。然後，在資本回報方面，我知道您表示您預計回購趨勢會有所減少。那麼，巴塞爾 III 即將到來，這是否意味著，我的意思是，也許在 1 億美元的範圍內？或者還有其他的方式來思考這個問題嗎？然後，比爾，您是否可以單獨談談非銀行方面和銀行方面有關併購興趣的任何想法？

I can handle the first 1 there, I guess, in terms of the capital and then Bill, and you can talk about some of the changes. Yes, no surprise there. We feel good about our capital levels. Our CET capital ratio increased 30 basis points in the quarter. So we're at 9.5%. We did well on the stress test, the most recent stress test where our stress capital buffer decreased. So we're in an excess capital position. The part of that thinking was the increase in the dividend that we announced recently.

我想我可以處理第一個問題，就資本而言，然後是比爾，你可以談談一些變化。是的，這並不奇怪。我們對我們的資本水平感覺良好。本季度我們的 CET 資本比率增加了 30 個基點。所以我們的比例是 9.5%。我們在壓力測試中表現良好，在最近的壓力測試中，我們的壓力資本緩沖減少了。所以我們處於資本過剩的狀態。這種想法的一部分是我們最近宣布的股息增加。

As far as share repurchases, like I said, it's not a surprise. We're on pause. It's sensible to see what these new rules mean, understand the details and then build that into our capital return plan. So we're positioned for share repurchases going forward, but it's just sensible to take a pause right now.

至於股票回購，正如我所說，這並不令人意外。我們暫停了。明智的做法是了解這些新規則的含義，了解細節，然後將其納入我們的資本回報計劃中。因此，我們準備繼續進行股票回購，但現在暫停一下是明智的。

I think on the M&A side, we continue to look, as we have done for the last several years. It's small things that might augment our client offerings, the volume of things that are being shown to us has actually probably increased. Our appetite to do them has probably decreased a little bit at the margin.

我認為在併購方面，我們將繼續尋找，就像我們過去幾年所做的那樣。這些小事情可能會增加我們的客戶產品，向我們展示的東西的數量實際上可能有所增加。我們對這些事情的興趣可能略有下降。

Larger things are going to be kind of a function of the environment and what the regulatory landscape looks like. But all else equal, we would be interested in expanding our franchise.

更大的事情將取決於環境和監管環境。但在其他條件相同的情況下，我們有興趣擴大我們的特許經營權。

Our next question is coming from the line of Dave George with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自戴夫·喬治和貝爾德。

Kind of a big picture question for both Bill and Rob. I wanted to get a sense as to how you're thinking about managing the balance sheet today, given where the cost of new money is relative to a year ago with loans and securities down a bit. I would guess, economics and perhaps some capital relief are driving some of that, but I'm curious as to how you're thinking about balancing spread revenue growth relative to managing the balance sheet for returns. I assume you're continuing to run the bank at the same ROE targets you always have. But I'm curious, conceptually, guys how you're thinking about that dynamic?

對於比爾和羅布來說，這都是一個大問題。我想了解一下您今天如何考慮管理資產負債表，考慮到新資金的成本相對於一年前貸款和證券略有下降。我猜想，經濟因素和一些資本減免正在推動其中的一些發展，但我很好奇您如何考慮平衡利差收入增長與管理資產負債表的回報。我認為您將繼續按照一貫的淨資產回報率目標經營銀行。但我很好奇，從概念上講，伙計們，你們如何看待這種動態？

I think at the 10,000-foot level, our appetite to lend and support our clients isn't affected by short-term funding costs and so forth. There's -- you're seeing somewhat tepid loan growth largely because there's tepid loan demand. I think as a practical matter, there's a backlog building. A lot of our clients have been hesitant to do refinance under some hope that spreads would come back down. I don't think that's going to happen. So I think you'll see activity towards the back half of the year. But in any event, we just -- we support clients. We don't manage the balance sheet and the clients get the result, it's the other way.

我認為，在 10,000 英尺的高度，我們向客戶提供貸款和支持的意願不會受到短期融資成本等因素的影響。你看到貸款增長有些不溫不火，主要是因為貸款需求不溫不火。我認為實際上，存在積壓的情況。我們的許多客戶一直在猶豫是否進行再融資，因為他們希望利差會回落。我認為這不會發生。所以我認為你會在今年下半年看到活動。但無論如何，我們只是——我們支持客戶。我們不管理資產負債表，客戶得到結果，這是另一種方式。

With respect to interest rates, we are as neutral as we can otherwise be. And I think what you're going to see through time as deposits move back towards historical norms in terms of noninterest-bearing moving to interest bearing, and we reached that kind of cumulative beta, that's going to be offset by swaps and securities, fixed rate assets are rolling off and repricing. And that's kind of what we target as we run the balance sheet in a neutral position right now.

就利率而言，我們盡可能保持中立。我認為，隨著時間的推移，你將會看到，隨著存款從無息轉向有息，回到歷史常態，我們達到了那種累積貝塔值，這將被掉期和證券所抵消，固定利率資產正在滾動和重新定價。這就是我們目前將資產負債表保持在中性位置時的目標。

Just to add to that. I would just add to that is -- so we ran for many years, substantially asset sensitive, and that's changed. So we're slightly asset sensitive, but really neutral right now.

只是補充一下。我想補充的是——我們運行了很多年，對資產非常敏感，但這種情況已經改變了。所以我們對資產有點敏感，但現在確實是中性的。

Our next question is coming from the line of Erika Najarian with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的埃里卡·納賈里安 (Erika Najarian)。

I guess the first question here, and I just want to emphasize this and I mean, this squares with your 10-Q disclosure, you mentioned a neutrally positioned balance sheet. So as we think about that exit run rate that it implied for your guidance on net interest income of about $3.25 billion for the fourth quarter of '23. Without taking into account balance sheet growth, it sounds like if we do get the rate cuts that the market is expecting that the -- you're going to be able to stay within that range of $3.2 billion, $3.25 billion, again, excluding any assumed growth?

我想這是第一個問題，我只想強調這一點，我的意思是，這與您的 10-Q 披露相符，您提到了中性定位的資產負債表。因此，當我們考慮退出運行率時，它暗示了 23 年第四季度淨利息收入約為 32.5 億美元的指導。在不考慮資產負債表增長的情況下，聽起來如果我們確實實現市場預期的降息，那麼您將能夠再次保持在 32 億美元、32.5 億美元的範圍內，排除任何假設的增長？

Yes, that's fair. That's fair. Of course, our own plans are, as I mentioned in our opening comments that we wouldn't see rate cuts until first quarter of next year, but you're in the right neighborhood.

是的，這很公平。這還算公平。當然，正如我在開場白中提到的那樣，我們自己的計劃是，直到明年第一季度我們才會看到降息，但你來對地方了。

Got it. And -- thank you so much for all the disclosure on Slide 6. I'm wondering when do you think is the time to start thinking about adding and protecting from that downside risk with regards to maybe adding new received fixed swaps at obviously a higher floor than where they're coming off of? And what's the pricing like for those securities for those swaps rather?

知道了。而且——非常感謝您在幻燈片 6 上所做的所有披露。我想知道您認為什麼時候是開始考慮增加和防範下行風險的時候了，因為可能會以明顯高於其起始水平的價格添加新收到的固定掉期？這些掉期證券的定價是怎樣的？

Again, we are, at the moment, basically neutral to rates. So a duration of equity that's been bouncing around plus or minus to half a year. So adding in this environment would be choosing to get long. Choosing to get long would basically be saying that we think the forward curve is correctively like term rates. And I'm not sure we do that, that we agree with that yet, which is why you've seen security balances roll down.

再次強調，目前我們對利率基本上持中立態度。因此，股權的持續時間一直在正負上下波動，最長可達半年。因此，在這種環境下添加將選擇做多。選擇做多基本上就是說我們認為遠期曲線與期限利率是正確的。我不確定我們是否會這樣做，我們是否同意這一點，這就是為什麼你會看到安全平衡下降。

I think the big unknown for us and everybody is if and when the Fed pauses and then cuts rates, what actually happens to the shape of the yield curve in term rates and expectations would be you'd see a massive flattening. So I'm not sure at the moment that there's value to be had in extending duration to the extent we do, we're doing it in a very short end, and you'd in fact see that in our swaps book, while balances are down, we canceled some and put some other ones on the yield, but very short dated.

我認為，對我們和每個人來說，最大的未知數是，美聯儲是否暫停然後降息，長期利率和預期的收益率曲線形狀實際上會發生什麼變化，你會看到大幅扁平化。因此，我目前不確定將久期延長到我們所做的程度是否有價值，我們是在很短的時間內這樣做的，事實上，你會在我們的掉期賬簿中看到，雖然餘額下降，但我們取消了一些，並將其他一些放在收益率上，但日期很短。

Our next question is coming from the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自斯科特·西弗斯和派珀·桑德勒。

I just wanted to ask sort of a conceptual question on deposit pricing. The pressures seem, I guess, a little bit uneven by company. I was hoping you could spend a moment discussing sort of how you think about the balance between not necessarily needing to show liquidity the way some others do, but still being bound just naturally by competitive dynamics within the footprint?

我只是想問一個關於存款定價的概念性問題。我想，不同公司的壓力似乎有點不平衡。我希望您能花點時間討論一下您如何看待不一定需要像其他人那樣顯示流動性，但仍然自然地受到足跡內競爭動態的束縛之間的平衡？

Sure. I follow the question. I mean the basic -- our deposit outflows, I guess, maybe I'll answer it this way, are largely following the expectations I think you'd see across the industry with QT. Inside of that, we try to keep our client base and price them competitively, and you're seeing that in the mix shift from noninterest-bearing to interest-bearing and the increase in the beta. We're not out chasing, trying to do broker deposits or big CD pushes or something to boost deposits, if that's kind of where your question was going.

當然。我按照問題來。我的意思是基本的——我想，也許我會這樣回答，我們的存款流出很大程度上遵循了我認為整個行業通過 QT 看到的預期。其中，我們試圖保持我們的客戶群並為其定價具有競爭力，您會看到從無息到有息的轉變以及貝塔值的增加。如果您的問題是這樣的話，我們不會去追逐、嘗試進行經紀人存款或大額 CD 推送或其他增加存款的活動。

But mostly protecting -- our core consumer customer and commercial customer.

但主要是保護我們的核心消費者客戶和商業客戶。

Yes. No, I mean you hit on it. I guess, I probably could have worded it better. But I look at your Cum beta assumption it's lower than some others, but it seems sort of realistic also just within the sort of confines of what you're actually experiencing. So I was just curious about how the competitive dynamic sort of weighed in there, and I think you touched on it, so I appreciate that.

是的。不，我的意思是你擊中了它。我想，我可能可以措辭更好。但我看看你的 Cum beta 假設它比其他一些假設要低，但它似乎也有點現實，也只是在你實際經歷的範圍內。所以我只是好奇競爭動態是如何影響其中的，我想你提到了這一點，所以我很欣賞。

I think if your base flows were higher than what was otherwise happening because of QTs. In other words, you were losing deposits at a pace in that instance, your replacement cost is full rate.

我想如果你的基礎流量比其他情況下由於 QT 更高。換句話說，在這種情況下，您正在以一定的速度損失存款，您的重置成本是全額。

100%.

100%。

And I think you're going to see that play out as earnings come out this week where you're going to see some pretty extreme differences in what's happened to funding cost. But our flows have been largely kind of following QT trend.

我認為隨著本週財報的公佈，你會看到這種情況的發生，你會看到融資成本發生了一些相當極端的差異。但我們的流量很大程度上遵循 QT 趨勢。

Maybe a little better.

也許好一點。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Perfect. And I was hoping we could peel back a little more into the sort of the expected capital markets recovery. I guess as I look at that from a top level, if there are sort of 3 big chunks in the capital markets, DCM seems like it's sort of fine ECM, maybe is found firmer footing, but M&A is the piece that's still sort of in a logjam.

好的。完美的。我希望我們能夠更多地關注預期的資本市場復甦。我想，當我從頂層來看時，如果資本市場有三大塊的話，DCM 似乎是一種很好的 ECM，也許已經找到了更堅實的基礎，但併購仍然是一個陷入僵局的部分。

I guess maybe as you think about the nuance for that recovery in the back half of the year, just what are the main drivers that you see?

我想也許當您思考下半年復甦的細微差別時，您看到的主要驅動因素是什麼？

Yes, sure. Scott, this is Rob. Yes, and particularly for us, the M&A piece, Harris Williams is a high percentage of our capital market fees. We're going off of pipeline. So the pipeline in our advisory businesses and largely extrapolate that the capital markets in total is up 20% over the first quarter and 6% year-over-year. And as you know, they had a pretty good second half of 2022. So we're basing it on that.

是的，當然。斯科特，這是羅布。是的，特別是對我們而言，哈里斯威廉姆斯的併購費用占我們資本市場費用的很高比例。我們即將脫離管道。因此，我們諮詢業務的管道在很大程度上推斷資本市場總額比第一季度增長了 20%，同比增長了 6%。如您所知，他們在 2022 年下半年表現相當不錯。所以我們以此為基礎。

Our next question is coming from the line of Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的邁克·梅奧。

I thought you might push a little harder on this. So you revised 2023 guidance using midpoints is for NII to be 150 basis points less, fees be 300 basis points less and expenses only 50 basis points less. So I'm just wondering how much harder you might push on the expenses. And you did mention the CIP going from $400 million to $450 million of savings this year, so I guess that helps.

我想你可以在這件事上更努力一些。因此，您使用中點修改了 2023 年指導，即 NII 減少 150 個基點，費用減少 300 個基點，支出僅減少 50 個基點。所以我只是想知道你會在開支上加大多少力度。您確實提到今年 CIP 的節省額將從 4 億美元增加到 4.5 億美元，所以我想這會有所幫助。

But are you preserving infrastructure and resources for potential growth? Is it just not that variable? Or what else can you do to get expenses more in sync with the revised lower revenue guidance. And I mean that's all recognized, and I think you're still guiding for positive operating leverage this year. It's just not as high as it once was.

但您是否保留了基礎設施和資源以實現潛在增長？難道只是沒有那個變量嗎？或者您還可以採取哪些措施來使支出與修訂後的較低收入指導更加同步。我的意思是，這都是公認的，而且我認為今年你們仍在指導積極的運營槓桿。只是沒有以前那麼高了。

Yes. But thanks for the question, Mike. The short answer is we are going to push harder on it. The practical answer is, I'm not entirely sure that the benefits of what we will be doing will show up in the run rate in '23.

是的。但謝謝你的提問，邁克。簡而言之，我們將更加努力地推動這一目標。實際的答案是，我不完全確定我們將要做的事情的好處是否會體現在 23 年的運行率中。

If you look at our costs, right? We're basically down in every category other than personnel. And we're going to have to take a hard look at where we can generate savings in this company without cutting the potential for growth and the opportunity we continue to see in our growth markets and just business activity. But we're going to look at that really hard. I'm just not sure it shows up in '23.

如果你看看我們的成本，對嗎？除了人員以外，我們基本上在所有類別中都處於下降狀態。我們將不得不認真考慮在不削減增長潛力以及我們在增長市場和商業活動中繼續看到的機會的情況下，我們可以在這家公司的哪些方面節省開支。但我們會認真研究這個問題。我只是不確定它是否會出現在 23 年。

Just in terms of the timing because there's only 6 months left, so actions that you take don't show up in that run rate. But we did reduce, as you pointed out, we did reduce the expectation to up 2% year-over-year. That includes the FDIC special assessment that was in there and obviously inflationary pressure. So that's pretty good, but we're not going to stop there.

就時間而言，因為只剩下 6 個月的時間，所以您採取的操作不會顯示在該運行率中。但正如您所指出的，我們確實降低了預期，將同比增長 2%。這包括聯邦存款保險公司的特別評估以及明顯的通脹壓力。這非常好，但我們不會就此止步。

All right. Well, 1 follow-up then as we how does this set you up for 2024? I guess, is it too early to say? And just in general, you guys have been -- and you and the industry, it's been about 6 to 9 months of negative downward guidance. Is loan spreads for you guys 1 quarter, it was higher interest rates than others, capital markets a little bit this quarter. And these are factors outside of your control, at least those are. Do you think you're level-setting enough now? Are we there? Or there's still more risk to the downside than to the upside?

好的。那麼，我們將進行 1 次後續跟進，這將如何為 2024 年做好準備？我想，現在說還為時過早吧？總的來說，你們以及整個行業已經經歷了大約 6 到 9 個月的負面向下指導。你們1季度的貸款利差是嗎，利率比其他人高，本季度資本市場有點。這些都是你無法控制的因素，至少是這樣。你覺得你現在的水平夠了嗎？我們在嗎？或者下行風險仍然大於上行風險？

'24 seems so far away at the moment. But I think -- I guess what I would say is we're running the company for the long term here. We see -- we continue to see once we get through rate normalization, tremendous upside in the company in growth through clients in our new markets. And are we at the trough now? Are we at the trough when we -- with our guidance for the fourth quarter? I don't know. I don't know if you have a view on it, Rob.

24現在看來還很遙遠。但我認為——我想我想說的是我們在這里長期運營公司。我們看到，一旦我們實現費率正常化，我們將繼續看到，通過新市場的客戶，公司的增長將取得巨大的優勢。我們現在正處於低谷嗎？根據我們對第四季度的指導，我們是否正處於低谷？我不知道。我不知道你對此有何看法，羅布。

Well, I would say you had sort of talked about it. I mean, the disruption has been largely driven by the rate environment and the volatility in the rate environment that not only affects our earning assets and our deposits, but also some of our interest rate-sensitive fees. So all the changes there are a function of the extraordinary change in the rates. Are we in the later innings of that, I think probably, but hard to be accurate exactly.

嗯，我想說你已經談論過它了。我的意思是，這種破壞很大程度上是由利率環境和利率環境的波動造成的，這不僅影響我們的盈利資產和存款，還影響我們的一些利率敏感費用。因此，所有的變化都是利率異常變化的函數。我認為我們可能正處於比賽的後期階段，但很難準確地說。

Our next question is coming from the line of Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Two questions. One is I know we talked earlier about demand for loans, not that great. But I'm also -- I'm also wondering, is there a credit box widening event that -- or process we should be thinking about, given that credit quality is so good?

兩個問題。一是我知道我們之前談到了貸款需求，但並不是那麼大。但我也 - 我也想知道，鑑於信用質量如此之好，是否存在信用箱擴大事件 - 或我們應該考慮的流程？

Probably not. Well, and you've always said -- we don't change our box, yes.

可能不是。嗯，你總是說——我們不會改變我們的盒子，是的。

Yes. I think it issue right now it's kind of pretty straightforward. The companies who otherwise in the normal cycle would be out refinancing and perhaps increasing lines are holding off under some assumption that credits going to get cheaper, either through rate or through spread. And so there's a backlog building.

是的。我認為現在的問題非常簡單。在正常週期中，那些原本會進行再融資並可能增加額度的公司正在推遲，因為他們假設信貸將通過利率或利差變得更便宜。所以就有了積壓的情況。

I don't -- I think we wait for that market to come to us. I don't think there's a big appetite on anyone's part to go out and go with a loss-leading price, particularly given the funding markets today. So I think it will be slow for a while until people are kind of forced into this new environment and new pricing and then you'll see growth.

我不認為——我認為我們正在等待這個市場的到來。我認為沒有人願意以虧損為主的價格買入，特別是考慮到當今的融資市場。因此，我認為這將緩慢一段時間，直到人們被迫進入這種新環境和新定價，然後你就會看到增長。

Okay. All right. Separately, on the regulatory, I know you've said in the past that your LCR ratio is compliant no matter how you measure it. When you say no matter how you measure it, are you talking about, hey, even if you were at a GSIB standard, is that what you're referring to?

好的。好的。另外，關於監管，我知道你過去說過，無論你如何衡量，你的LCR比率都是合規的。當你說無論你如何衡量它時，你是在說，嘿，即使你採用的是 GSIB 標準，這就是你所指的嗎？

I don't know the exact quote, but we put the ratio out there for a while. And while I'm not sure the ratio this quarter would qualify for the full 100%, but it's very close. And historically, it's been over the full 100% even though we're measured at the 70% threshold.

我不知道確切的報價，但我們把這個比率放在那裡一段時間了。雖然我不確定本季度的比率是否符合 100%，但它非常接近。從歷史上看，儘管我們以 70% 的閾值進行測量，但它已經超過了 100%。

Yes. No, it's much higher than anybody else we calc. So I was just wondering if that's what you were thinking about there.

是的。不，它比我們計算的其他任何人都要高得多。所以我只是想知道你是否也這麼想。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Last ticky-tacky thing is just under the FDIC special assessment, I'm not sure if I heard this right or not, but -- is that in your full year expense guide? Or should we be thinking about?

好的。最後一件棘手的事情是在 FDIC 特別評估下，我不確定我是否聽對了，但是 - 這是在您的全年支出指南中嗎？或者我們應該思考一下？

Yes. No, no, no. Thanks for asking that, Betsy. So no, the FDIC assessment that I was referring to was the 1 that was announced last year that went into place at the beginning of this year '23. It doesn't relate to the special assessment that's being contemplated for the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, which we expect to be finalized sometime in the second half. So our guidance does not include that.

是的。不不不。謝謝你這麼問，貝特西。所以不，我所指的 FDIC 評估是去年宣布的 1，並於今年 23 年初實施。它與正在考慮對矽谷銀行和簽名銀行進行的特別評估無關，我們預計該評估將在下半年的某個時候完成。所以我們的指導不包括這一點。

And that you would be putting below the line? Is that right?

你會把它放在底線以下嗎？是對的嗎？

Well, we'd be expensing it, but we need to understand what that number is.

好吧，我們會支出它，但我們需要了解這個數字是多少。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is coming from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I have a couple of follow-up questions. One, I think you talked about interest in expansion, I guess, as it pertains to M&A. When you talk to investors and bank management teams, it appears that there are 3 hurdles to that. One is, lack of policy alignment in D.C., mark-to-market purchase accounting and then the macro. Bill, if you had to rate them, which of these 3 is the lot biggest hurdle to figure a little bit of consolidation in the sector?

我有幾個後續問題。第一，我想你談到了對擴張的興趣，我猜，因為它與併購有關。當您與投資者和銀行管理團隊交談時，您會發現這似乎存在 3 個障礙。一是華盛頓特區缺乏政策一致性，缺乏按市價計價的購買會計，然後是宏觀政策。比爾，如果你必須對它們進行評級，那麼這三個因素中哪一個是該行業進行整合的最大障礙？

I think for -- look, I think for the industry broadly, it's fair value accounting on targets where even MOEs at this point, there have to be for most banks that would get together a fairly substantial capital raise. And that's going to stop people from doing things. I think you've heard quite loudly coming out of D.C. recognition that there's going to need to be consolidation in the industry to create competition against some of the giant banks.

我認為，對於整個行業來說，這是對目標的公允價值會計，即使是教育部，對於大多數銀行來說，也必須籌集相當大的資金。這會阻止人們做事。我想你已經聽到華盛頓方面大聲疾呼，該行業需要進行整合，以與一些大型銀行形成競爭。

So I don't know that, that shows up largely on a hurdle. And the final thing is just the franchise value of what you might look at. It's -- people used to do deals just for size. I think we're in an environment in a credit environment where that can be dangerous because I think there's a lot of bad balance sheets out there, heavy real estate concentration and other things that would be a red flag.

所以我不知道，這很大程度上表現為一個障礙。最後一件事就是你可能會看到的特許經營價值。人們過去只是為了規模而做交易。我認為我們所處的信貸環境可能很危險，因為我認為存在很多不良的資產負債表、房地產高度集中以及其他可能是危險信號的事情。

But the mark-to-market is the primary challenge.

但按市價計算是主要挑戰。

Got it. And I guess no way to resolve that than lower rates at some point. And just as a follow-up on interest rates and your deposit beta guidance. It all feels incremental well within control. If the Fed is close to being done, do you see a big risk of deposit behavior shifting back book repricing down the road? Or if the Fed is actually done, we're getting close to the end game error.

知道了。我想除了在某個時候降低利率之外，沒有其他辦法可以解決這個問題。就像利率和存款貝塔指導的後續行動一樣。這一切感覺都在控制之中。如果美聯儲即將完成這項工作，您是否認為未來存款行為會面臨重新定價的巨大風險？或者，如果美聯儲真的這麼做了，我們就已經接近最終錯誤了。

So a couple of things. I want to go back to your comment on -- just quickly on we've got to wait for rates to go lower. You don't necessarily need rates to go lower. You need the existing book to pull the par, right? One of the -- so for example, our securities book because of short duration will pull the par very quickly. Others, some have long book, some have short books, so it will vary across the industry.

有幾件事。我想回到您的評論 - 只是很快我們必須等待利率下降。您不一定需要降低利率。你需要現有的書才能達到標準，對嗎？其中之一 - 例如，我們的證券賬簿由於存續期短，將很快拉平標準。其他的，有些書很長，有些書很短，所以整個行業會有所不同。

The issue of deposit betas, if the Fed just freezes and stays there for a long period of time, you would have deposit beta creep. We're at the margin, there would be competition for deposits as long as Q2 was ongoing. And you'd see some bleeding to the upside. I don't know how large that would be. It's -- we're kind of assuming some of that in our guidance. But I think that's a real issue, and we've seen it in past history when the Fed was done.

關於存款貝塔值的問題，如果美聯儲只是凍結並長期保持這種狀態，那麼存款貝塔值就會蠕變。我們處於邊緣狀態，只要第二季度持續，就會存在存款競爭。你會看到一些向上的出血。我不知道那會有多大。我們在我們的指導中假設了其中的一些內容。但我認為這是一個真正的問題，我們在過去的歷史中，當美聯儲結束時我們已經看到過這個問題。

And particularly in the interest-bearing consumer deposits which could still go up even though the Fed stops or cut.

特別是計息消費者存款，即使美聯儲停止或降息，其仍可能上升。

And our last question in the queue is a follow-up question coming from the line of Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

我們隊列中的最後一個問題是來自富國銀行邁克·梅奧的後續問題。

Bill, just your big picture perspective. So are we going into a recession, soft landing, no landing, hard landing. I mean, remind us are your reserves are predicated on unemployment of a certain level? And at what theoretical point would you say, "Hey, it's okay for us to release some of those reserves."

比爾，只是你的大局觀。那麼我們是否會陷入衰退、軟著陸、不著陸、硬著陸。我的意思是，提醒我們，你們的儲備金是否以一定水平的失業率為基礎？在什麼理論上，你會說：“嘿，我們可以釋放其中一些儲備。”

Well, I'll give you the official Rob answer, which is we are appropriately reserved.

好吧，我會給你羅布的官方答案，那就是我們有適當的保留。

Thank you for doing that for me.

謝謝你為我做這件事。

We're -- at this point, I think we have our unemployment assumptions somewhere over 5%, which bluntly looks like it's going to be pretty tough to get there in my own view. I think the soft landing feels right, and we'll reflect on that as time comes. We're not even in a soft landing. I'd remind you that a large amount of the reserves we have appropriately are focused towards commercial real estate in office specifically. And I think even with the soft landing, that asset category is going to have trouble.

目前，我認為我們的失業率假設超過 5%，坦率地說，在我看來，要達到這一目標將非常困難。我認為軟著陸是正確的，我們會隨著時間的推移對此進行反思。我們甚至還沒有實現軟著陸。我想提醒您的是，我們擁有的大量儲備專門用於辦公商業地產。我認為即使實現軟著陸，該資產類別也會遇到麻煩。

Okay. And did you make any changes? Where are you right now in the commercial -- that the office reserving because I know you were kind of high in the industry before.

好的。你做了什麼改變嗎？你現在在廣告中處於什麼位置——辦公室保留，因為我知道你以前在這個行業有點高。

Yes, we're 7.4% on the office book.

是的，我們的辦公室預訂費為 7.4%。

We're over 10 on the...

我們已經10多歲了...

I'm sorry, on the -- sorry, the office book, inside of the office book, the multi-tenant piece, which is where we have the biggest concern is close to 11%.

對不起，關於——對不起，辦公簿，辦公簿內部，多租戶部分，這是我們最擔心的部分，接近 11%。

So I think we're reserved for whatever happens in that book, but that's -- we'll need those reserves because we do think there's going to be problems in the office space.

所以我認為我們會為這本書中發生的任何事情做好準備，但我們需要這些準備金，因為我們確實認為辦公空間會出現問題。

We have no further questions.

我們沒有其他問題了。

Thank you all for your participation on the call. If you have any follow-up questions, please feel free to reach out to the IR team.

感謝大家參與此次電話會議。如果您有任何後續問題，請隨時聯繫 IR 團隊。

Thanks, everybody.

謝謝大家。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That concludes the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。