PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to today's conference call for The PNC Financial Services Group. Participating on this call are PNC's Chairman, President and CEO, Bill Demchak; and Rob Reilly, Executive Vice President and CFO.

早上好。歡迎參加今天的 PNC 金融服務集團電話會議。參加此次電話會議的有 PNC 董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Bill Demchak；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Rob Reilly。

Today's presentation contains forward-looking information. Cautionary statements about this information as well as reconciliations of non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release materials as well as our SEC filings and other investor materials. These are all available on our corporate website, pnc.com, under Investor Relations. These statements speak only as of January 18, 2023, and PNC undertakes no obligation to update them.

今天的演示文稿包含前瞻性信息。有關此信息的警告聲明以及非 GAAP 措施的對賬包含在今天的收益發布材料以及我們的 SEC 文件和其他投資者材料中。這些都可以在我們的公司網站 pnc.com 的投資者關係下找到。這些聲明僅在 2023 年 1 月 18 日生效，PNC 不承擔更新它們的義務。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bill.

現在我想把電話轉給比爾。

Thanks, Bryan, and good morning, everybody. 2022 is a successful year for our company, and our strong performance during the year reflects the power of our Main Street bank model and our coast-to-coast franchise. For the full year, we reported $6.1 billion in net income or $13.85 per share. Inside of that, we grew loans and generated record revenue during a rapidly rising rate environment while at the same time, we controlled expenses, resulting in substantial positive operating leverage for the full year 2022.

謝謝，布萊恩，大家早上好。 2022 年對我們公司來說是成功的一年，我們在這一年的強勁表現反映了我們主街銀行模式和我們從東海岸到西海岸特許經營權的力量。全年，我們報告的淨收入為 61 億美元或每股 13.85 美元。其中，我們在利率快速上升的環境中增加了貸款並創造了創紀錄的收入，同時我們控制了支出，從而為 2022 年全年帶來了可觀的積極經營槓桿。

Turning to our results for the fourth quarter. We generated $1.5 billion of net income or $3.47 per share. Growth in both net interest income and fee income contributed to a 4% increase in revenue. Our expenses were up 6% this quarter, primarily due to increased compensation from elevated business activity, particularly in our advisory businesses. Rob is going to provide more detail on our fourth quarter expenses as well as our outlook in a few minutes.

談談我們第四季度的業績。我們產生了 15 億美元的淨收入或每股 3.47 美元。淨利息收入和手續費收入的增長推動收入增長 4%。本季度我們的支出增長了 6%，這主要是由於業務活動增加帶來的報酬增加，尤其是在我們的諮詢業務中。 Rob 將在幾分鐘內提供有關我們第四季度支出的更多詳細信息以及我們的前景。

Average loans grew 3% during the quarter, driven by growth in both commercial and consumer. For the full year, average loans were up 15%, and we continue to grow our loan book in a disciplined manner.

在商業和消費者增長的推動下，本季度平均貸款增長了 3%。全年平均貸款增長 15%，我們繼續有條不紊地增加貸款賬目。

As we look ahead, we are operating our company with the expectation for a shallow recession in 2023. Accordingly, this outlook drove an increase in our loan loss provision in the quarter and a modest build in reserves under the CECL methodology. Importantly, as the credit environment continues to trend towards normalized levels, our overall credit quality metrics remain solid.

展望未來，我們在經營公司時預計 2023 年將出現輕微衰退。因此，這一前景導致我們本季度的貸款損失準備金增加，並根據 CECL 方法適度增加準備金。重要的是，隨著信貸環境繼續趨向正常化水平，我們的整體信貸質量指標依然穩健。

I'd add that with charge-offs having been so low, it's not surprising to see volatility quarter-to-quarter and we saw this in the fourth quarter with an outsized loss on one commercial credit pushing us outside of our expected range. We continue to manage our liquidity levels to support growth. Our deposits remain relatively stable, and we've increased our wholesale borrowings to bolster liquidity.

我要補充一點，由於沖銷率如此之低，因此看到季度與季度之間的波動並不奇怪，我們在第四季度看到了這一點，一個商業信貸的巨額虧損使我們超出了我們的預期範圍。我們繼續管理我們的流動性水平以支持增長。我們的存款保持相對穩定，我們增加了批發借款以增加流動性。

During the quarter, we returned $1.2 billion of capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, bringing our total annual capital return to $6 billion. Our progress within the BBVA influenced markets continues to exceed our expectations, and we see powerful growth opportunities across our lines of business in these new markets. We continue to generate new customer relationships, and we have been thrilled with the quality of bankers we've been able to hire.

本季度，我們通過股票回購和派息向股東返還了 12 億美元的資本，使我們的年度資本回報總額達到 60 億美元。我們在受 BBVA 影響的市場中取得的進展繼續超出我們的預期，我們在這些新市場中看到了我們各業務線的強大增長機會。我們繼續建立新的客戶關係，我們對能夠聘用的銀行家的素質感到非常興奮。

In summary, it was a solid fourth quarter as we further built on our post-acquisition momentum, delivered for our customers and communities across the country, generated strong financial results for our shareholders and put ourselves in a position of strength as we move into 2023.

總而言之，這是一個穩健的第四季度，因為我們進一步鞏固了收購後的勢頭，為全國各地的客戶和社區提供服務，為我們的股東創造了強勁的財務業績，並在我們進入 2023 年時處於有利地位.

As always, I want to thank our employees for everything they do to make our success possible. And with that, I'll turn it over to Rob to provide more details. Rob?

一如既往，我要感謝我們的員工為我們的成功所做的一切。然後，我將把它交給 Rob 來提供更多詳細信息。搶？

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，比爾，大家早上好。

Our balance sheet is on Slide 3 and is presented on an average basis. Loans for the fourth quarter were $322 billion, an increase of $9 billion or 3% linked quarter. Investment securities grew $6 billion or 4%. Cash balances at the Federal Reserve totaled $30 billion and declined $1.5 billion during the quarter. And our average deposit balances were down 1%, while period-end deposits remained essentially stable.

我們的資產負債表在幻燈片 3 上，按平均數顯示。第四季度貸款為 3220 億美元，環比增加 90 億美元或 3%。投資證券增長 60 億美元或 4%。美聯儲的現金餘額總計 300 億美元，本季度減少了 15 億美元。平均存款餘額下降1%，期末存款基本穩定。

Average borrowed funds increased $15 billion as we proactively bolstered our liquidity with Federal Home Loan Bank borrowings late in the third quarter, and these are reflected in our fourth quarter average balances.

由於我們在第三季度末通過聯邦住房貸款銀行借款積極增加流動性，平均借入資金增加了 150 億美元，這些反映在我們第四季度的平均餘額中。

On a spot basis, we increased our total borrowed funds by approximately $4 billion compared to September 30. The period-end increase was driven by $2 billion of FHLB borrowings and $3 billion of senior debt, partially offset by lower subordinated debt.

在即期基礎上，與 9 月 30 日相比，我們的借入資金總額增加了約 40 億美元。期末增加是由 20 億美元的 FHLB 借款和 30 億美元的優先債務推動的，部分被較低的次級債務所抵消。

At year-end, our tangible book value was $72.12 per common share, an increase of 3% linked quarter. And we remain well capitalized with an estimated CET1 ratio of 9.1% as of December 31, 2022.

年底，我們的有形賬面價值為每股普通股 72.12 美元，環比增長 3%。截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，我們的資本充足率估計為 9.1%。

We continue to be well positioned with capital flexibility. During the quarter, we returned $1.2 billion of capital to shareholders through approximately $600 million of common dividends and $600 million of share repurchases or 3.8 million shares.

我們繼續在資本靈活性方面處於有利地位。本季度，我們通過約 6 億美元的普通股息和 6 億美元的股票回購或 380 萬股股票向股東返還了 12 億美元的資本。

Slide 4 shows our loans in more detail. Compared to the same period a year ago, average loans have increased 11% or $33 billion, reflecting increased loan demand as well as our ability to capitalize on opportunities in our expanded coast-to-coast franchise.

幻燈片 4 更詳細地顯示了我們的貸款。與去年同期相比，平均貸款增加了 11% 或 330 億美元，這反映了貸款需求的增加以及我們利用擴大的海岸到海岸特許經營機會的能力。

During the fourth quarter, we delivered solid loan growth. Loan balances averaged $322 billion, an increase of $9 billion or 3% compared to the third quarter reflecting growth in both commercial and consumer loans. On a spot basis, loans grew $11 billion or 3%.

在第四季度，我們實現了穩健的貸款增長。貸款餘額平均為 3,220 億美元，比第三季度增加 90 億美元或 3%，反映出商業和消費貸款的增長。按現貨計算，貸款增長 110 億美元或 3%。

Commercial loans grew more than $9 billion at period end, driven by strong broad-based new production in both our corporate banking and asset-based lending businesses. Importantly, utilization rates within our C&IB portfolio remained stable linked quarter.

商業貸款在期末增長超過 90 億美元，這得益於我們的企業銀行業務和基於資產的貸款業務的強勁的廣泛新產品。重要的是，我們的 C&IB 投資組合中的利用率在相關季度保持穩定。

Consumer loans increased $1 billion compared to September 30, driven by higher residential mortgage, home equity and credit card balances, partially offset by lower auto loans and loan yields of 4.75%, increased 77 basis points compared to the third quarter, driven by higher interest rates.

與 9 月 30 日相比，消費貸款增加了 10 億美元，原因是住宅抵押貸款、房屋淨值和信用卡餘額增加，部分被較低的汽車貸款和 4.75% 的貸款收益率所抵消，與第三季度相比增加了 77 個基點，原因是利率上升費率。

Slide 5 covers our deposits in more detail. Throughout 2022, deposit balances have declined modestly, amidst the competitive pricing environment and inflationary pressures. Fourth quarter deposits averaged $435 billion and were generally stable linked quarter.

幻燈片 5 更詳細地介紹了我們的存款。整個 2022 年，在競爭激烈的定價環境和通脹壓力下，存款餘額略有下降。第四季度存款平均為 4350 億美元，環比季度總體穩定。

Given the rising interest rate environment, we continue to see a shift in deposits from noninterest-bearing into interest-bearing. And as a result, at December 31, our deposit portfolio mix was 71% interest-bearing and 29% noninterest bearing.

鑑於利率上升的環境，我們繼續看到存款從無息轉變為有息。因此，截至 12 月 31 日，我們的存款組合組合為 71% 的有息存款和 29% 的無息存款。

Overall, our rate paid on interest-bearing deposits increased to 1.07% during the fourth quarter. And as of December 31, our accumulated beta was 31%.

總體而言，我們的計息存款利率在第四季度上升至 1.07%。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的累計貝塔係數為 31%。

Slide 6 details our securities portfolio. On an average basis, our fourth quarter securities of $143 billion grew $6 billion or 4%. The increase was largely driven by elevated purchase activity late in the third quarter, which included $3 billion of forward starting securities that settled in the fourth quarter.

幻燈片 6 詳細介紹了我們的證券投資組合。平均而言，我們第四季度 1430 億美元的證券增長了 60 億美元或 4%。這一增長主要是由第三季度末購買活動增加推動的，其中包括在第四季度結算的 30 億美元遠期啟動證券。

On a spot basis, securities were $139 billion and increased $3 billion or 2% linked quarter. The yield on our securities portfolio increased 26 basis points to 2.36%, driven by higher reinvestment yields as well as lower premium amortization. And during the quarter, new purchase yields exceeded 4.75%.

按現貨計算，證券為 1390 億美元，環比增長 30 億美元或 2%。我們的證券投資組合的收益率上升 26 個基點至 2.36%，這得益於更高的再投資收益率和更低的保費攤銷。並且在本季度，新購買收益率超過 4.75%。

At the end of the fourth quarter, our accumulated other comprehensive income improved to $10.2 billion reflecting the accretion of unrealized losses on securities and swaps. Importantly, we continue to estimate that approximately 5% of AOCI will accrete back per quarter going forward, without taking into account the impact of rate changes.

第四季度末，我們累計的其他綜合收益增加到 102 億美元，反映了證券和掉期交易未實現虧損的增加。重要的是，我們繼續估計，在不考慮利率變化的影響的情況下，未來每個季度大約有 5% 的 AOCI 會回升。

Turning to the income statement on Slide 7. As you can see, fourth quarter 2022 reported net income was $1.5 billion, or $3.47 per share. Revenue was up $214 million or 4% compared with the third quarter. Expenses increased $194 million or 6%. Provision was $408 million in the fourth quarter, reflecting the impact of a weaker economic outlook as well as continued loan growth, which resulted in a $172 million reserve build. And our effective tax rate was 17.7%.

轉到幻燈片 7 上的損益表。如您所見，2022 年第四季度報告的淨收入為 15 億美元，即每股 3.47 美元。與第三季度相比，收入增加了 2.14 億美元，增幅為 4%。費用增加了 1.94 億美元或 6%。第四季度準備金為 4.08 億美元，反映了經濟前景疲軟以及貸款持續增長的影響，這導致了 1.72 億美元的準備金增加。我們的有效稅率為 17.7%。

Turning to Slide 8. We highlight our revenue trends. In 2022, total revenue was a record $21.1 billion and grew 10% or $2 billion compared to 2021. Within that, net interest income increased 22% due to both higher interest rates and strong loan growth.

轉到幻燈片 8。我們強調了我們的收入趨勢。 2022 年，總收入達到創紀錄的 211 億美元，比 2021 年增長 10% 或 20 億美元。其中，由於利率上升和貸款增長強勁，淨利息收入增長了 22%。

Noninterest income declined 5% as lower market-sensitive fees more than offset strong card and cash management growth.

非利息收入下降 5%，因為較低的市場敏感費用抵消了強勁的信用卡和現金管理增長。

Looking more closely at the fourth quarter, total revenue was $5.8 billion, an increase of 4% or $214 million linked quarter. Net interest income of $3.7 billion, was up $209 million or 6%. The benefit of higher yields on interest-earning assets and increased loan balances was partially offset by higher funding costs. And as a result, net interest margin increased 10 basis points to 2.92%.

仔細觀察第四季度，總收入為 58 億美元，環比增長 4% 或 2.14 億美元。淨利息收入為 37 億美元，增長 2.09 億美元或 6%。較高的融資成本部分抵消了生息資產收益率上升和貸款餘額增加的好處。因此，淨息差上升 10 個基點至 2.92%。

Fee income was $1.8 billion and increased $75 million or 4% linked quarter. Looking at the detail, asset management and brokerage fees decreased $12 million or 3% reflecting the impact of lower average equity markets. Capital Markets and Advisory revenue grew $37 million or 12%, driven by higher merger and acquisition advisory fees, partially offset by lower loan syndication activity. Lending and deposit services increased $9 million or 3%, primarily due to higher loan commitment fees, reflecting our strong new loan production.

費用收入為 18 億美元，環比增長 7500 萬美元或 4%。從細節來看，資產管理和經紀費用減少了 1200 萬美元或 3%，反映了較低平均股票市場的影響。資本市場和諮詢收入增長 3700 萬美元或 12%，這主要是由於併購諮詢費用增加，部分被銀團貸款活動減少所抵消。貸款和存款服務增加 900 萬美元或 3%，主要是由於貸款承諾費增加，反映出我們強勁的新貸款生產。

Residential and commercial mortgage revenue increased $41 million, driven by higher RMSR valuation adjustments, partially offset by lower commercial mortgage banking activities. Other noninterest income declined $70 million linked quarter, reflecting a negative fourth quarter Visa fair value adjustment compared to a positive valuation adjustment in the third quarter, resulting in a change of $54 million.

受更高的 RMSR 估值調整推動，住宅和商業抵押貸款收入增加了 4100 萬美元，部分被商業抵押貸款銀行活動減少所抵消。其他非利息收入環比下降 7000 萬美元，反映出第四季度 Visa 公允價值調整為負，而第三季度為正估值調整，導致變化 5400 萬美元。

Turning to Slide 9. Our fourth quarter expenses were up $194 million or 6% linked quarter. The growth was largely in personnel costs, which increased $138 million reflecting higher variable compensation related to increased business activity. Fourth quarter personnel costs also included market impacts on long-term incentive compensation plans as well as seasonally higher medical benefits.

轉到幻燈片 9。我們第四季度的支出增加了 1.94 億美元，環比增加了 6%。增長主要來自人事成本，增加了 1.38 億美元，反映出與業務活動增加相關的可變薪酬增加。第四季度人員成本還包括市場對長期激勵薪酬計劃的影響以及季節性較高的醫療福利。

The remaining balance of the increase in expenses linked quarter included higher marketing spend as well as impairments on various assets and investments. The majority of these impairments will lower our expenses going forward and are included in our expense guidance.

相關季度費用增加的剩餘餘額包括更高的營銷支出以及各種資產和投資的減值。這些減值中的大部分將降低我們未來的支出，並包含在我們的支出指南中。

As you know, we had a 2022 goal of $300 million in cost savings through our continuous improvement program, and we exceeded that goal. Looking forward to 2023, we will be increasing our annual CIP goal to $400 million. This program funds a significant portion of our ongoing business and technology investments.

如您所知，我們的目標是到 2022 年通過我們的持續改進計劃節省 3 億美元的成本，並且我們超額完成了該目標。展望 2023 年，我們將把年度 CIP 目標提高到 4 億美元。該計劃為我們正在進行的業務和技術投資提供了很大一部分資金。

Our credit metrics are presented on Slide 10. Nonperforming loans of $2 billion, decreased $83 million or 4% compared to September 30 and continue to represent less than 1% of total loans. Total delinquencies of $1.5 billion, declined $136 million or 8% linked quarter. Net charge-offs for loans and leases were $224 million, an increase of $105 million linked quarter, driven in part by one large commercial loan credit.

我們的信用指標顯示在幻燈片 10 中。不良貸款為 20 億美元，與 9 月 30 日相比減少了 8300 萬美元或 4%，並且繼續佔貸款總額的不到 1%。拖欠總額為 15 億美元，環比下降 1.36 億美元或 8%。貸款和租賃的淨沖銷額為 2.24 億美元，環比增加 1.05 億美元，部分原因是一筆大額商業貸款信貸。

Our annualized net charge-offs to average loans was 28 basis points in the fourth quarter. Provision for the fourth quarter was $408 million compared to $241 million in the third quarter. The increase reflected the impact of a weaker economic outlook as well as continued loan growth.

第四季度，我們對平均貸款的年化淨註銷為 28 個基點。第四季度的準備金為 4.08 億美元，而第三季度為 2.41 億美元。這一增長反映了經濟前景疲軟以及貸款持續增長的影響。

During the fourth quarter, our allowance for credit losses increased $172 million, and our reserves now total $5.4 billion or 1.7% of total loans.

第四季度，我們的信貸損失準備金增加了 1.72 億美元，我們的準備金現在總計 54 億美元，佔貸款總額的 1.7%。

In summary, PNC reported a strong fourth quarter and full year 2022. In regard to our view of the overall economy, we're now expecting a mild recession in 2023 resulting in a 1% decline in real GDP. Our rate path assumption includes a 25 basis point increase in Fed funds in both February and March. Following that, we expect the Fed to pause rate actions until December 2023, when we expect a 25 basis point cut.

總而言之，PNC 報告了強勁的第四季度和 2022 年全年。關於我們對整體經濟的看法，我們現在預計 2023 年將出現溫和衰退，導致實際 GDP 下降 1%。我們的利率路徑假設包括聯邦基金在 2 月和 3 月增加 25 個基點。之後，我們預計美聯儲將暫停利率行動直到 2023 年 12 月，屆時我們預計將降息 25 個基點。

Looking ahead, our outlook for full year 2023 compared to 2022 results is as follows: we expect spot loan growth of 2% to 4%, which equates to average loan growth of 6% to 8%. Total revenue growth to be 6% to 8%. Inside of that, our expectation is for net interest income to be up in the range of 11% to 13% and noninterest income to be stable to up 1%.

展望未來，與 2022 年相比，我們對 2023 年全年的展望如下：我們預計即期貸款增長 2% 至 4%，這相當於平均貸款增長 6% 至 8%。總收入增長6%至8%。其中，我們預計淨利息收入將增長 11% 至 13%，非利息收入將穩定增長 1%。

Expenses to be up between 2% and 4% and we expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 18%.

費用將增加 2% 至 4%，我們預計我們的有效稅率約為 18%。

Based on this guidance, we expect we'll generate solid positive operating leverage in 2023.

根據這一指引，我們預計我們將在 2023 年產生穩固的積極經營槓桿。

Looking at first quarter of 2023 compared to fourth quarter of 2022, we expect spot loans to be stable, which equates to average loan growth of 1% to 2%. Net interest income to be down 1% to 2%, reflecting 2 fewer days in the quarter. Fee income to be down 3% to 5% due to seasonally lower first quarter client activity. Other noninterest income to be between $200 million and $250 million, excluding net securities and Visa activity.

將 2023 年第一季度與 2022 年第四季度相比，我們預計現貨貸款將保持穩定，這相當於平均貸款增長 1% 至 2%。淨利息收入將下降 1% 至 2%，反映本季度減少了 2 天。由於第一季度客戶活動季節性下降，費用收入將下降 3% 至 5%。其他非利息收入在 2 億美元至 2.5 億美元之間，不包括淨證券和 Visa 活動。

We expect total noninterest expense to be down 2% to 4%, and we expect first quarter net charge-offs to be approximately $200 million.

我們預計非利息總支出將下降 2% 至 4%，我們預計第一季度的淨沖銷額約為 2 億美元。

And with that, Bill and I are ready to take your questions.

說到這裡，比爾和我準備好回答你們的問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from the line of John Pancari with Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 John Pancari。

Good morning. On the management fee income side, I wonder if you can give us a little more thought around the deposit costs -- potentially maybe if you can give us your updated thoughts on where the accumulated beta, I know you're in that 30 -- just over 30%, now 31%, where is that going to trend to? What's your updated expectation there?

早上好。在管理費收入方面，我想知道您是否可以讓我們多考慮一下存款成本——如果您可以向我們提供您對累積貝塔值在哪裡的最新想法，我知道您在那個 30 中——剛剛超過 30%，現在是 31%，這將走向何方？您對那裡的最新期望是什麼？

And then also maybe on the noninterest-bearing mix, I know it's 29% of total deposits now. How do you expect that trending over the course of the next year?

然後也可能是無息組合，我知道它現在佔總存款的 29%。您如何看待明年的趨勢？

Sure. Why don't I take the second one first in terms of the mix. Consistent with our expectations in a rising rate environment, we expect the mix to go more into interest-bearing, and we're seeing that. But it's right on track. No big surprise there. We're right now at 29% noninterest-bearing.

當然。為什麼我不把第二個放在第一位。與我們在利率上升環境中的預期一致，我們預計組合將更多地轉向生息，我們正在看到這一點。但它是正確的。那裡沒有什麼大驚喜。我們現在的無息利率為 29%。

I'd imagine that over the course of '23, will go down a bit. Our previous low in previous cycles was around 25%. So I think that's a good way to sort of think about it.

我想在 23 年的過程中，會有所下降。我們之前週期的低點約為 25%。所以我認為這是一種很好的思考方式。

In terms of the betas, you're right. We finished the year right on top of where we expected. As you know, betas lagged past historical increases for most of '22 for us and for the industry. And going forward, we expect maybe that lag to sort of compress a bit, and we'll start tracking to historical rises, but nothing particularly unusual. And of course, we don't control that, that will be an outcome.

就貝塔而言，你是對的。我們以超出預期的成績結束了這一年。如您所知，對於我們和整個行業，22 年的大部分時間裡，貝塔值都落後於過去的歷史增長。展望未來，我們預計這種滯後可能會有所壓縮，我們將開始追踪歷史上漲，但沒有什麼特別不尋常的。當然，我們無法控制，這將是一個結果。

John, if you're trying to dig into -- I had made a comment at Goldman that we thought our NII might track to an annualized fourth quarter and in our guide, we look a little light to that. All of that pressure, it's not coming from funding. It's coming from the spread on loans. So we're -- we've been surprised, I've been surprised as we just haven't seen spreads widen in corporate credit.

約翰，如果你想深入研究——我曾在高盛發表評論說，我們認為我們的 NII 可能會追踪到第四季度的年度化數據，而在我們的指南中，我們對此看起來有點輕鬆。所有這些壓力，都不是來自資金。它來自貸款利差。所以我們——我們很驚訝，我很驚訝，因為我們只是沒有看到企業信貸的利差擴大。

So I guess what I would say to you is -- there's this disconnect that something is going to give. Either corporate spreads are going to widen or our current scenario that we have forecasted for CECL is wrong. So right now, we basically guide against kind of where spreads are. Maybe we get some widening and we put in this mild recession in CECL. So we have a little bit of disconnect in the numbers, but they are what they are.

所以我想我要對你說的是——有些東西會帶來這種脫節。公司利差將擴大，或者我們為 CECL 預測的當前情景是錯誤的。所以現在，我們基本上是針對點差的情況進行指導。也許我們得到了一些擴大，我們在 CECL 中加入了這種溫和的衰退。所以我們在數字上有點脫節，但它們就是它們。

Yes. And that gets, of course, to our guidance for the full year in terms of NII. So the upside would be, to Bill's point, that loan spreads would widen as they should, if we get into the economy that everybody is prepared for.

是的。當然，這就是我們在 NII 方面對全年的指導。因此，就比爾的觀點而言，如果我們進入每個人都準備好的經濟，那麼貸款利差將會擴大。

So that widening would provide upside to that 11% or 13%?

那麼這種擴大會給 11% 或 13% 帶來上行空間嗎？

Yes. So none of the change in kind of thought on NII is driven by any change in our assumption on betas or deposit growth. We had pretty healthy deposits this quarter. We think we can continue that. It's all on this.

是的。因此，我們對貝塔係數或存款增長的假設發生任何變化，都不會導致對 NII 的任何想法發生變化。本季度我們的存款相當健康。我們認為我們可以繼續這樣做。一切都在於此。

We have an ability, particularly in the new markets to grab a whole bunch of new clients, make new loans that are good credit loans, kind of invest into this as we've done in our new markets for years, invest into client growth.

我們有能力，特別是在新市場上吸引一大群新客戶，發放新貸款，這是良好的信用貸款，就像我們多年來在新市場所做的那樣，投資於此，投資於客戶增長。

The problem is the return right now struggles because we haven't seen spreads gap the way we've seen in the public markets, the way we might expect given the economy, we're kind of forecasting.

問題是目前的回報很掙扎，因為我們沒有看到我們在公開市場上看到的利差差距，我們在經濟中可能預期的方式，我們正在預測。

Got it. Okay. And then separately on the credit side, can you give us a little more color on the $100 million increase in charge-offs. What was the size of the commercial credit? What is the industry? Are you seeing any other developments related to that credit or other areas of your portfolio were flagging just given the lumpiness and the size of that one issue?

知道了。好的。然後在信貸方面，你能否給我們更多關於增加 1 億美元的註銷的顏色。商業信貸的規模是多少？什麼是行業？您是否看到與該信貸或您投資組合的其他領域相關的任何其他發展僅考慮到該問題的塊狀和規模？

Let me jump in here, right? That one credit has been staring us in the face for a while. We've been working on it. It's a credit that both BBVA and PNC were in. So it shows up as outsized. We had big reserves against it.

讓我跳進去好嗎？那個功勞已經讓我們眼前一亮了一段時間。我們一直在努力。 BBVA 和 PNC 都參與其中，這是一個榮譽。因此它顯示為超大。我們對此有很大的儲備。

As you've seen in our nonperformers and our delinquencies there is going down. This is kind of -- I don't know what you call this something going through a snake, but we've been staring at it and we charged it off and that's showing the elevation this quarter, but I wouldn't read into that.

正如你在我們的不良行為和我們的拖欠中看到的那樣，那裡正在下降。這有點——我不知道你怎麼稱呼它穿過蛇，但我們一直在盯著它看，我們把它沖掉了，這顯示了本季度的提升，但我不會讀到那個.

Yes. No underlying trend or anything problematic with asset category.

是的。資產類別沒有潛在趨勢或任何問題。

What was that industry?

那個行業是什麼？

Telecommunications.

電信。

Our next question is from the line of John McDonald with Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 John McDonald。

Rob, I wanted to just follow up on the NII question should John there. Can you just remind us where you are on kind of interest rate positioning? Building in small rate hikes in the beginning of the year, maybe cut later. How do rate hikes from here kind of impact you? And just a reminder of where you are on the swap book and how that's influencing NII today and how it rolls off would be helpful?

Rob，我只想跟進 NII 問題，如果 John 在那裡的話。你能提醒我們你的利率定位在哪裡嗎？在年初小幅加息，可能會在晚些時候降息。從這裡開始加息對您有何影響？只是提醒一下您在交換簿上的位置以及它如何影響今天的 NII 以及它如何推出會有所幫助嗎？

Well, sure. Let me -- I'll try to cover some of that, and then we can follow that up. I mean, definitely, we're positioned to benefit from the 2 rate hikes that we expect 25 basis points each in February and March. We do have a 25 basis point cut in December, but that won't play largely in the '23 performance.

嗯，當然。讓我——我會嘗試介紹其中的一些內容，然後我們可以跟進。我的意思是，毫無疑問，我們有望從 2 月和 3 月的兩次加息中受益，我們預計每次加息 25 個基點。我們在 12 月份確實降息了 25 個基點，但這不會在很大程度上影響 23 年的表現。

So we're positioned well against that, and we'll grow our NII. We're pointing to between 10% and 13% in terms of that range year-over-year. I will say, when we jumped into this right away, forecasting for a full year in terms of guidance is always difficult. This year, in particular, it's more difficult than most. You've heard that sentiment from some of our peers that have already reported. Really difficult because of all the uncertainties that we all know about.

因此，我們在這方面處於有利地位，我們將發展我們的 NII。就該範圍而言，我們指出同比增長在 10% 到 13% 之間。我會說，當我們立即投入其中時，就指導而言預測一整年總是很困難。尤其是今年，比大多數時候都困難。你已經從我們的一些已經報告過的同行那裡聽到了這種情緒。真的很困難，因為我們都知道所有的不確定性。

So we put out what we think we can achieve. That's -- Bill and I talked a little bit about maybe some upside to that in terms of loan spreads. But everything that we know now with all the uncertainties, that's where we're positioned.

因此，我們提出了我們認為可以實現的目標。那就是 - 比爾和我談到了貸款利差方面的一些好處。但我們現在所知道的一切都充滿不確定性，這就是我們的定位。

No big change in terms of our rate management in terms of the swaps we've disclosed at around $40 billion or so. But of course, that's all part of how we manage the balance between our fixed and variable.

就我們披露的約 400 億美元的掉期而言，我們的利率管理沒有大的變化。但是，當然，這就是我們如何管理固定和可變之間的平衡的一部分。

The simplest way to think about that, John, is we -- through the course of the year, the DV01 or the sensitivity we have for our long positions as if anything, decreased. So think about that in terms of both the securities book and the swap book. So we remain largely asset-sensitive, happy with that position.

約翰，考慮這一點的最簡單方法是我們——在這一年中，DV01 或我們對多頭頭寸的敏感性似乎有所下降。因此，請從證券賬簿和互換賬簿的角度考慮這一點。因此，我們在很大程度上仍然對資產敏感，對這一立場感到滿意。

I mean that over time changes with the mix of swaps and securities. The swaps themselves it's kind of irrelevant to look at them separately, but they're very short, and they roll off in big bulk -- a couple of years.

我的意思是，隨著時間的推移，掉期和證券的組合會發生變化。互換本身——單獨看它們有點無關緊要，但它們很短，而且它們大量滾動——幾年。

2.5.

2.5.

Okay. And Rob, maybe as a follow-up, could you unpack a little bit of the outlook for the fee revenues that you gave for 2023, just some of the headwinds and tailwinds that are leading to that outcome on the noninterest income?

好的。羅布，也許作為後續行動，你能否談談你對 2023 年費用收入的展望，只是導致非利息收入結果的一些逆風和順風？

Yes. Yes. Sure, John. So just in terms of the categories where we expect to see growth capital markets, we do expect mid-single-digit growth, which is good and consistent with our expectations.

是的。是的。當然，約翰。因此，就我們預計會看到增長資本市場的類別而言，我們確實預計會有中個位數的增長，這很好並且符合我們的預期。

Our steady Eddie, card and cash management will probably be up high single digits and then those 2 will be offset by continuing headwinds in our asset management, given the equity markets as well as lower mortgage production. So you put all that together, and that's how we get into our stable to up 1% for the full year.

我們穩定的 Eddie、卡和現金管理可能會達到高個位數，然後考慮到股票市場和較低的抵押貸款生產，這 2 個將被我們資產管理的持續逆風所抵消。所以你把所有這些放在一起，這就是我們全年穩定增長 1% 的方式。

Our next question is from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Bill, coming back to your thoughts on the spreads that you guys just referenced on the commercial loan book relative to the CECL outlook, and I'm glad you framed it that way because I think many of us are in that camp that you just described. But in terms of the spreads, is there any capacity issues, meaning there's too much lending capacity, which has kept the spreads maybe lower than normal?

比爾，回到你對你們剛剛在商業貸款書中提到的與 CECL 前景相關的利差的看法，我很高興你這樣描述它，因為我認為我們中的許多人都在你剛才描述的那個陣營中.但就利差而言，是否存在任何容量問題，這意味著貸款能力過多，這使得利差可能低於正常水平？

I'm not sure what's going on, to be honest with you. I mean there's -- on the smaller end in certain retail categories, which really isn't our focus, there's -- there's just irrational competition in certain asset categories.

老實說，我不確定發生了什麼。我的意思是 - 在某些零售類別的較小端，這真的不是我們的重點，有 - 在某些資產類別中存在非理性競爭。

In the larger corporate space, where we have this opportunity to grow clients, particularly in the new market and ultimately cross-sell, there just hasn't been any sort of gap the way you've seen in the public markets. There hasn't been any real change. Spreads aren't going down, but there hasn't been any change at all with respect to kind of the outlook in this economy.

在更大的企業領域，我們有機會增加客戶，特別是在新市場和最終交叉銷售中，並沒有像你在公開市場上看到的那樣存在任何差距。沒有任何真正的變化。利差沒有下降，但就經濟前景而言，根本沒有任何變化。

And until -- and if there's real defaults and charge-offs, there probably won't be. So one of these things is going to give, I just don't know which one it is.

直到 - 如果有真正的違約和沖銷，可能不會。所以這些東西之一將要給出，我只是不知道它是哪一個。

Very good. No, I noticed in your Table 10 in the supplement, the inflows of nonperformance had been pretty steady. So there's real -- excuse me, real evidence yet.

非常好。不，我在你的補充表 10 中註意到，不良資產的流入一直非常穩定。所以有真實的 - 對不起，真實的證據呢。

And then as a follow-up, can you just remind us your outlook for returning capital to shareholders in the upcoming year with dividends and share repurchases?

然後作為後續行動，您能否提醒我們您在來年通過股息和股票回購向股東返還資本的前景？

Yes. Gerard and just to finish up on that on the credit spot, to your point, in the supplement, (inaudible) nonperformers, but also you take a look at our NPAs and our delinquencies, which are down. So the leading indicators are still very strong.

是的。杰拉德，只是為了在信用點上完成這一點，就你的觀點而言，在補充中，（聽不清）表現不佳，但你也要看看我們的 NPA 和我們的拖欠率，這些都下降了。因此，領先指標仍然非常強勁。

Yes. On the share repurchases, a couple of things. One is, we are going to continue our share repurchase program into '23. Secondly, it will be at a reduced rate relative to what we did in 2022 and likely to be less than what we did in the fourth quarter of '22, which was $600 million.

是的。關於股票回購，有幾件事。一是，我們將繼續我們的股票回購計劃到 23 年。其次，與我們在 2022 年所做的相比，它的速度會有所降低，並且可能會低於我們在 2022 年第四季度所做的 6 億美元。

A couple of things about that. One is, why lower? One is, given all the uncertainties that we're seeing, obviously, we need to be smart and tactical in terms of our capital deployment as the year plays out. But secondly, and just logically, the rate of repurchases slows when your capital ratios go from 10% to 9%. So we still have a lot of capital flexibility. But by definition, as we get closer to those operating guidelines, we slow the pace of repurchases.

關於那件事的幾件事。一是，為什麼要低？一是，考慮到我們所看到的所有不確定性，顯然，我們需要在今年結束時在資本部署方面保持明智和戰術。但其次，從邏輯上講，當你的資本比率從 10% 上升到 9% 時，回購速度會放緩。所以我們還有很大的資本靈活性。但根據定義，隨著我們越來越接近這些操作指南，我們會放慢回購的步伐。

All that said, there's flexibility, as you know. So with the stress capital buffer, we're allowed a lot of flexibility around it. And we plan to use that flexibility as circumstances present themselves.

綜上所述，如您所知，存在靈活性。因此，有了壓力資本緩衝，我們就可以有很大的靈活性。我們計劃在情況出現時使用這種靈活性。

Our next question is from the line of Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Bill Carcache。

Bill And Rob. Following up on your swaps commentary. Could you speak broadly to how you're thinking about downside protection in this environment? Any color you can give on where you'd expect your NIM to settle if the Fed ultimately pushes the economy into, say, a mild recession cuts rates and Fed funds normalizes, say, somewhere in the 2.5% to 3% level? That would be great.

比爾和羅伯。跟進您的掉期評論。您能否廣泛談談您如何考慮在這種環境下的下行保護？如果美聯儲最終將經濟推向溫和衰退並降低利率並且聯邦基金正常化，例如在 2.5% 至 3% 的某個水平，您可以給出您期望 NIM 結算的任何顏色？那太好了。

I have to write all that down in terms of your assumptions there. The -- I would say in terms of NIM because we kind of -- obviously, we get that question a lot. It's obviously an outcome. So we don't guide to it. We don't necessarily manage to it.

我必鬚根據你在那裡的假設寫下所有這些。 - 我會說 NIM 方面，因為我們 - 顯然，我們經常收到這個問題。明明是一個結果。所以我們不指導它。我們不一定能做到。

I think when you just take a step back, you can see that we finished the quarter and finished the year at 292 -- 2.92%. That's up from all of '21 where we lived at 2.27%. So that a 65 basis point jump or so, that's occurred. We don't expect those kinds of swings going forward.

我想當你退後一步時，你會看到我們以 292 的成績結束了本季度和全年——2.92%。這高於 21 年全年的 2.27%。所以發生了 65 個基點左右的跳躍。我們預計未來不會出現這種波動。

So going forward, we're now probably more like 5 or 6 basis point swings off of these levels. And that's sort of the way that I think about it.

所以展望未來，我們現在可能更像是在這些水平上波動 5 或 6 個基點。這就是我的思考方式。

Got it. Separately, there's been some concern that we could see the mix of time deposits and noninterest-bearing deposits return not just to pre-COVID levels, but perhaps back to even pre-GFC levels in this environment. Can you speak to that risk, both broadly at the industry level and more specifically as it relates to PNC?

知道了。另外，有人擔心我們可能會看到定期存款和無息存款的組合不僅會回到 COVID 之前的水平，而且在這種環境下甚至可能會回到全球金融危機之前的水平。您能否談談這種風險，無論是在行業層面還是更具體地與 PNC 相關的風險？

I mean, look, we're in a bit of an unknown environment. We have the Fed going through QT. We have the Fed absorbing deposits through their reverse repo facility. We have, at least in our case, the ability to grow loans. So you could see a scenario where deposits get scarce.

我的意思是，看，我們處在一個未知的環境中。我們讓美聯儲通過 QT。我們讓美聯儲通過他們的逆回購機制吸收存款。至少就我們而言，我們有能力增加貸款。所以你可以看到存款變得稀缺的情況。

We've priced some of that that's in our forward guide. In terms of our best look on that, you can draw upside and downside to that kind of to Rob's point, this coming year and the years after that are -- are harder to forecast and model than some of the stability we had pre-COVID. So we're doing our best, and you've seen our best expectations.

我們已經在我們的前瞻性指南中對其中的一些進行了定價。就我們對此的最佳看法而言，你可以根據 Rob 的觀點得出這種情況的上行和下行，明年和之後的幾年——比我們在 COVID 之前的一些穩定性更難預測和建模.所以我們正在盡力而為，您已經看到了我們最好的期望。

Yes, I think that's right. And in regard to the mix between noninterest-bearing and interest-bearing so far, the shift that has occurred is perfectly consistent with what we've seen historically and consistent with our expectations.

是的，我認為這是對的。到目前為止，關於無息和有息之間的混合，已經發生的轉變與我們歷史上看到的完全一致，也符合我們的預期。

That's helpful, Bill and Rob. If I may squeeze in one last one. I wanted to dig in a little bit into your expectation for a weaker economic outlook and mild recession and sort of square that with your reserve rate having been basically unchanged sequentially. So it suggests that most of the reserve build was really growth driven.

這很有幫助，Bill 和 Rob。如果我可以擠進最後一個。我想深入了解一下您對經濟前景疲軟和溫和衰退的預期，以及您的準備金率連續基本保持不變的情況。因此，這表明大部分儲備建設實際上是由增長驅動的。

Maybe if the economic outlook does grow more challenging, consistent with that mild recession scenario, would it be reasonable to expect that your reserve rate could actually hold your current levels? Or would it still likely drift a little bit higher from here? Any thoughts around that would help.

也許如果經濟前景確實變得更具挑戰性，與溫和的衰退情景一致，那麼期望您的準備金率實際上可以保持當前水平是否合理？或者它仍然可能從這裡漂移一點點？任何關於這方面的想法都會有所幫助。

Yes. So a lot of moving pieces here, but start with the basic notion that we are fully reserved for the book that we hold today against a forecast that we just -- we more heavily weighted the recessionary forecast than we had in the third quarter.

是的。所以這裡有很多動人的部分，但從基本概念開始，即我們完全保留我們今天持有的書，反對我們剛剛的預測 - 我們比第三季度更重視衰退預測。

And then remember, the charge-offs that we took this quarter, particularly the lumpier ones, we mentioned one. Those were in a large way already reserved. So our build, right, is actually more than you think. The ratio ends up the same, but we have kind of less -- we have lower nonperformers inside of that total book as a percentage, maybe think of it that way.

然後請記住，我們在本季度進行的沖銷，特別是較笨重的沖銷，我們提到了一個。這些在很大程度上已經被保留了。所以我們的構建，對，實際上比你想像的要多。這個比率最終是一樣的，但我們有點少——我們在總賬簿中的表現不佳的人所佔的百分比較低，也許可以這樣想。

In terms of coming to that [17]. And then I'd also just remind you of our -- wherever we sit today at 17 both first day CECL to now or what we have now relative to others against the composition of our loan book, we've been at this in a fairly -- we think correctly, but nonetheless conservative process approach using CECL.

就此而言 [17]。然後我還要提醒你我們的——無論我們今天坐在 17 點，無論是從 CECL 的第一天到現在，還是我們現在相對於其他人與我們貸款賬簿的構成相比，我們一直在做這件事-- 我們的想法是正確的，但仍然使用 CECL 的保守工藝方法。

Our next question is from the line of Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

I wanted to talk a little bit about the expense side. And I know you mentioned that there was a part of the expenses this quarter that was associated with revenue generating activities like capital markets, and so that is a net positive to PPOP. So let's leave those expenses aside.

我想談一談費用方面的問題。我知道你提到本季度有一部分費用與資本市場等創收活動相關，因此這對 PPOP 是一個淨積極因素。所以讓我們把這些費用放在一邊。

I wanted to dig in more to the expenses that did not come with commensurate revenues and understand what the drivers were behind those increasing and then talk a little bit about your outlook for 2023 off of what is now higher based on what people have been expecting coming into this today.

我想深入了解那些沒有帶來相應收入的支出，了解這些支出增加背後的驅動因素是什麼，然後根據人們的預期，談談你對 2023 年的展望。今天進入這個。

Sure. I can start there. So in regard to the fourth quarter expenses, the biggest driver of the increase was personnel expense. And to your point, inside of that, the variable comp associated with the higher business activity. In addition to that, we did have some medical expenses that we expect seasonally, but they came in a little bit higher than what we would have expected.

當然。我可以從那裡開始。因此，就第四季度的支出而言，增長的最大驅動因素是人員支出。就你的觀點而言，在其中，與更高的業務活動相關的變量 comp 。除此之外，我們確實有一些季節性的醫療費用，但比我們預期的要高一點。

Outside of that...

除此之外...

(inaudible) seasonal to it...

（聽不清）季節性...

Seasonal. Well, sure. Well, essentially.

季節性。嗯，當然。好吧，本質上。

Not only that thing, and basically burn through your...

不僅是那件事，而且基本上會燒毀你的……

The deductibles. Yes, the deductibles and then like the company takes over after that. So -- and that happens, that happens seasonally. This season, it was a little bit higher than what we expected.

免賠額。是的，免賠額，然後就像公司接管一樣。所以 - 這種情況發生了，這是季節性發生的。本賽季，它比我們預期的要高一點。

Outside of that, when you look at the marketing spend, that's sort of timing in terms of how that falls in the year. But the impairments that we took on various investments and assets, which is part of your question, there wasn't anything singular that would stand out. It was a...

除此之外，當您查看營銷支出時，就一年中的下降情況而言，這是一種時間安排。但是我們對各種投資和資產的減值，這是你問題的一部分，沒有什麼特別突出的。那是個...

Yes, there was. We wrote off everything we had to do with crypto.

是的，有。我們註銷了與加密相關的一切。

Well, that was part of it. That was part of it. So maybe Bill wants to answer these questions. But I would say there wasn't anything singular. There's a handful of items that we took down in technology, and that shows up in our equipment expense in occupancy. We -- there were some facilities that we rightsized for our space needs going forward, that kind of thing.

好吧，那是其中的一部分。那是其中的一部分。所以也許比爾想回答這些問題。但我會說沒有任何奇異之處。我們在技術方面取消了一些項目，這些項目出現在我們的設備費用中。我們 - 我們對一些設施進行了調整，以滿足我們未來的空間需求，諸如此類。

So on the margin...

所以邊際...

(inaudible)...

（聽不清）...

Yes, sure. And then on the margin, the -- I'm sorry, just going into -- Bill's giving me another question, but I'd say on the margin going into '23, those impairments reduced some of our expense rates, so that sort of helped. So our guide is 2% to 4% in all of '23. That's how that all stays connected.

是的，當然。然後在邊際上，我很抱歉，只是進入 - 比爾給了我另一個問題，但我想說在進入 23 年的邊際上，這些減值降低了我們的一些費用率，所以那種的幫助。因此，我們的指南在整個 23 年都是 2% 到 4%。這就是一切保持聯繫的方式。

But it's kind of frustrating because none of the stuff in our expense line in the fourth quarter has anything to do with how we spend money. I mean the comp with new business is great. Everything else was kind of -- we flushed a couple tech projects that didn't work out. We rightsized occupancy. Marketing went up a little bit. And then we get hit this quarter on charge-offs, which are -- I'm not going to call them artificially high. They are what they are, but they're kind of lumpy as a function of something that we've been staring at for a while and that finally hits the books.

但這有點令人沮喪，因為我們第四季度的費用線中的任何內容都與我們花錢的方式無關。我的意思是與新業務的競爭很棒。其他一切都是——我們清除了幾個沒有成功的技術項目。我們調整了入住率。營銷有點上升。然後我們在本季度受到沖銷的打擊，這是 - 我不會人為地稱他們為高。它們就是它們的本來面目，但由於我們一直關注了一段時間並最終成為現實的東西，它們有點粗糙。

And we're largely reserved to your point.

我們在很大程度上保留了您的觀點。

Okay. So as I think about the guide into next year for total expenses up 2% to 4%, that is really related more towards your revenues of 6% to 8% and the crypto thing, whatever is a onetime, one and done...

好的。因此，當我考慮到明年總支出增加 2% 到 4% 的指南時，這實際上與你 6% 到 8% 的收入和加密貨幣相關，無論是一次性的，一次完成的......

And that's why -- and I said in my opening comments, we point to strong positive operating leverage in '23.

這就是為什麼——我在開場白中說過，我們指出了 23 年強勁的積極運營槓桿。

Okay. All right. And then separately, I know we talked a little bit earlier about the capital and the fact that your CET1 has been migrating down as you've been doing some nice lending, et cetera.

好的。好的。然後分別地，我知道我們早些時候談到了資本以及你的 CET1 一直在向下遷移的事實，因為你一直在做一些不錯的貸款，等等。

Just wanted to understand the RWA density. It looks like it's gone up a bit. And I just wanted to understand, is that just loan growth? Or is there something else going on there? Is there some changes in how you think about RWA factors?

只是想了解 RWA 密度。好像漲了一點。我只是想了解，這只是貸款增長嗎？還是那裡發生了其他事情？您對 RWA 因素的看法是否有一些變化？

And then I'm just wondering like how -- what is the low on CET1 that you're willing to drive to as we think about demand for borrowing is still pretty robust?

然後我只是想知道如何 - 當我們認為藉貸需求仍然非常強勁時，你願意開車到 CET1 的低點是多少？

Well, so a couple of things on that. I would say in terms of the RWA increase, it's entirely loan driven. So we've had a lot of loan growth in '22, a lot in the fourth quarter with that 3% growth in average loans. So that's the key driver of the RWA increase.

嗯，所以有幾件事。我想說，就風險加權資產的增長而言，這完全是貸款驅動的。所以我們在 22 年有很多貸款增長，第四季度很多，平均貸款增長了 3%。所以這是 RWA 增加的關鍵驅動因素。

Our CET ratio is at 9.1%. We've talked about an operating guideline of between 8.5% and 9%. So we're still above our operating guidelines and that's a good place to be.

我們的 CET 比率為 9.1%。我們已經討論了 8.5% 到 9% 之間的運營指南。所以我們仍然高於我們的運營指南，這是一個好地方。

Okay. So 8.5% the low, really, that's how we should read it.

好的。所以 8.5% 的低，真的，這就是我們應該如何閱讀它。

Yes.

是的。

Our next question is from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

I was wondering if you guys could talk about the still potential for the TLAC rules that come down to the category 3s and how you would be thinking about either getting ahead of that or starting to issue? Or do you just have to wait for the final notice and then consider a phase-in period?

我想知道你們是否可以談談歸結為第 3 類的 TLAC 規則的仍有潛力，以及你們會如何考慮提前或開始發布？或者您是否只需要等待最終通知，然後再考慮一個階段性的階段？

I mean a lot of people talking about this, not a lot happening around it. Where it to happen, by the way, we disagree with it, but let's walk down the path and say somehow down the road people suggest that this should happen and there'd be a phase-in period.

我的意思是很多人都在談論這個，而不是圍繞它發生的很多事情。順便說一句，我們不同意它發生的地方，但讓我們沿著這條路走下去，並以某種方式說人們建議這應該發生，並且會有一個階段性的階段。

Practically, as we look, the growth opportunity in our company, new clients' loan growth against what it is likely to be a constrained ability to grow total deposits, right? You're going to see our wholesale borrowings increase. And in the course of our wholesale borrowings increase in the ordinary course of business, we're going to fulfill all our parts of that TLAC requirement.

實際上，正如我們所看到的，我們公司的增長機會，新客戶的貸款增長可能會限制總存款增長的能力，對吧？你會看到我們的批發借款增加。在我們的批發借款在正常業務過程中增加的過程中，我們將滿足 TLAC 要求的所有部分。

All of that is in the numbers we're talking to you about -- it'll take more than next year. But in the way we think about...

所有這些都在我們與您談論的數字中——這將比明年花費更多。但在我們思考的方式...

In terms of the normalized as we move towards more normalized mix.

隨著我們朝著更規範化的混合方向發展，就規範化而言。

Yes. So -- and the simplest way to think about that maybe is our wholesale debt historically ran, I don't know, in the mid...

是的。所以 - 最簡單的思考方式可能是我們的批發債務歷史上運行，我不知道，在中期......

16% to 19%.

16% 到 19%。

Yes, mid-teens, I was going to say, and we're running 5%. So if we normalize, that's what home loan in there.

是的，十幾歲，我想說，我們跑了 5%。因此，如果我們正常化，那就是那裡的房屋貸款。

As we normalize our borrowings through time, it's likely we're going to get -- and fulfill that requirement without purposely trying to do it. Just because that's the way we and other people will be funding institutions.

當我們隨著時間的推移規範我們的借款時，我們很可能會得到 - 並在沒有故意嘗試這樣做的情況下滿足該要求。僅僅因為這就是我們和其他人資助機構的方式。

Yes. I'd just add to that, that's -- we see it on our path. It's not particularly problematic, but there's a lot to be played out. We still don't think it's necessary and there's also a reasonable chance there'd be some tailoring to it, which would be reduced in our case.

是的。我只想補充一點，那就是——我們在我們的道路上看到了它。這不是特別有問題，但是有很多事情要做。我們仍然認為沒有必要，而且也有合理的機會對其進行一些調整，在我們的案例中會減少。

Yes. And as a follow-on to that, to your point about wholesale borrowings, funding loan growth incrementally, can you just talk about how you're thinking about the securities portfolio? I know you saw some growth this quarter. I know you're getting good front book, back book on it. The percentage of earning assets is still around 28%. So how would you expect that to go vis-a-vis the use of wholesale borrowings to continue to support that growth as well?

是的。作為後續，關於批發借款、逐步為貸款增長提供資金的觀點，你能談談你對證券投資組合的看法嗎？我知道你在本季度看到了一些增長。我知道你的前書和後書都很好。盈利資產的比例仍然在28%左右。那麼，相對於使用批發借款來繼續支持這種增長，你怎麼看呢？

Look, you wouldn't purposely borrow wholesale and then invest in a security to hold in your securities book. However, inside of all the requirements that we manage ourselves to, we also have liquidity requirements, LCR and the need to hold high-quality liquid assets.

你看，你不會故意大量借入證券然後投資證券以持有在你的證券簿中。然而，在我們自己管理的所有要求中，我們也有流動性要求、LCR 和持有高質量流動資產的需要。

So the securities book will likely fade in terms of total percentage over time simply because of loan growth that we see in some of the roll down. That securities book is part of what we have in terms of cash and liquidity to satisfy LCR.

因此，由於我們在一些下降中看到的貸款增長，隨著時間的推移，證券賬簿的總百分比可能會下降。該證券賬簿是我們滿足 LCR 的現金和流動性的一部分。

So it's -- we're not going to say, "Hey, let's borrow some money to buy more treasuries," right? That isn't going to happen. But practically, we use that book to hedge the value of our deposits. We'll continue to do that, and we'll continue to do that inside of the lens of LCR and other liquidity stresses that we run.

所以——我們不會說，“嘿，我們藉點錢買更多的國債吧，”對吧？那不會發生。但實際上，我們用那本書來對沖我們存款的價值。我們將繼續這樣做，我們將繼續在 LCR 和我們運行的其他流動性壓力的鏡頭內這樣做。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from the line of Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的 Mike Mayo。

Well, I guess in the category of no good deed goes unpunished, I mean you did have positive operating leverage last year of 300 basis points. You're guiding for positive operating leverage this year between I guess, 200 and 600 basis points, your charge-offs were below 30 basis points every quarter. You're buying back some shares. Yet, your guidance from 1 month ago was off and your results fell [one eighth] below consensus. Now don't stop giving your guidance or anything like that. And we're all subject to the uncertainties out there.

好吧，我想在沒有善舉的類別中，我的意思是你去年確實有 300 個基點的積極經營槓桿。我猜你今年的積極經營槓桿在 200 到 600 個基點之間，你每個季度的沖銷都低於 30 個基點。你正在回購一些股票。然而，您 1 個月前的指導已經失效，您的結果低於共識[八分之一]。現在不要停止給予你的指導或類似的東西。我們都受到那裡的不確定性的影響。

But just a little bit more about what's changed in the past month. So I guess, unemployment, your end rate assumption, you're saying it's over 5%, maybe where that's going to. And I guess that drove some of the CECL-driven reserve -- part of reserves, the NII and maybe your decision to lean into the securities purchases maybe because you think this is a relative top on yields?

但只是更多關於過去一個月發生的變化。所以我想，失業率，你的最終利率假設，你說它超過了 5%，也許會達到這個水平。我想這推動了一些 CECL 驅動的儲備——部分儲備、NII 以及你決定購買證券可能是因為你認為這是收益率的相對最高點？

Yes. So you're overcomplicating it. One thing changed from a month ago and one thing only. And that was basically the spread we thought we'd earn on new business, right? We know, Mike, that we can go out and grow loans.

是的。所以你把它複雜化了。一件事比一個月前改變了，只有一件事。這基本上就是我們認為我們可以從新業務中獲得的價差，對吧？邁克，我們知道我們可以出去增加貸款。

Our ability to gain clients, cross-sell those clients, we've never been more bullish on that. The process of doing that is not earning what we would otherwise expect in the moment because spreads have not widened and, of course, you take a full life of the loan reserve when you book that loan. That's the only thing that's really changed.

我們獲得客戶、交叉銷售這些客戶的能力，我們從未如此看好。這樣做的過程並沒有賺到我們目前預期的收入，因為利差沒有擴大，當然，當你預訂那筆貸款時，你會用完貸款準備金。這是唯一真正改變的事情。

The expenses this quarter are (inaudible). The guide for next year is tempered simply by that question of whether spreads are going to rise on loans, maybe they will or our CECL analysis will be wrong. We haven't -- we never guide on what our provision is going to be. We talk about charge-offs and the charge-off this quarter we felt was a bit anomalous.

本季度的支出是（聽不清）。明年的指南只是因為貸款利差是否會上升這個問題而有所緩和，也許會，或者我們的 CECL 分析是錯誤的。我們沒有——我們從不指導我們的規定是什麼。我們談論了沖銷和我們認為本季度的沖銷有點反常。

So nothing's really changed other than the sweat factor of, hey, can I actually earn what I thought I was going to earn on new loan production. That's it.

因此，除了汗水因素之外，沒有什麼真正改變的，嘿，我真的可以賺到我認為我會在新貸款生產上賺到的錢嗎？就是這樣。

So you're saying you're too conservative either on CECL reserves or your NII guide for the year?

所以你是說你對今年的 CECL 儲備或你的 NII 指南過於保守？

Yes. Well, but I haven't given you a number on my CECL reserves, right? So -- but we put in -- we worsened our economic forecast. And the simple soundbite is either spreads are going to widen or our economic forecast is wrong. I think that's a fair statement.

是的。好吧，但我沒有給你我的 CECL 儲備金，對吧？所以 - 但我們投入 - 我們惡化了我們的經濟預測。簡單的說法是要么利差擴大，要么我們的經濟預測是錯誤的。我認為這是一個公平的說法。

So there's an inconsistency there...

所以那裡有一個不一致......

You give -- by the way, the CEO [gauge] doesn't turn out maybe to come to the economists because this is such a detailed outlook in your release about what you expect the economy and interest rates and everything else. So you give a lot of detail.

你給 - 順便說一句，首席執行官 [gauge] 可能不會來找經濟學家，因為這是你發布的關於你對經濟和利率以及其他一切的預期的詳細展望。所以你提供了很多細節。

You asked a question on the securities book. It's just -- we basically stayed pretty much in the same position all year. We get to reprice the book, and you see the income coming out of the securities book growing nicely. We haven't invested into it. It's a tough market to invest into, if you are in effect a deposit-funded institution, right? If you want to go out and buy something today, against your marginal cost of money, you're basically carrying flat to negative.

你問了一個關於證券賬簿的問題。只是——我們基本上整年都處於相同的位置。我們開始重新定價這本書，你會看到來自證券賬簿的收入增長良好。我們沒有投資它。這是一個很難投資的市場，如果你實際上是一家存款資助機構，對吧？如果你今天想出去買東西，相對於你的邊際貨幣成本，你基本上持平到負數。

Today on the theory that the Fed is going to cut to what down the road. And you got to believe that the Fed is going to go back into 2s on Fed funds, which I just fundamentally don't believe. So I think kind of the market is just uninvestable at the moment, and I think that's going to be figured out through the course of the year.

今天的理論是美聯儲將削減到什麼程度。而且你必須相信美聯儲將回到聯邦基金的 2s，我根本不相信。所以我認為目前某種市場是不可投資的，我認為這將在今年的過程中得到解決。

And so there's upside if my view on that plays out in the way we run our securities book. But at the moment, there's no choosing to go along in this environment, I think, is a mistake.

因此，如果我對此的看法在我們經營證券賬簿的方式中發揮作用，那就有好處了。但目前，我認為在這種環境下選擇順從並不是一個錯誤。

One more clarification. You are reserved for your existing book of business, assuming an unemployment rate of what level? I know it's above 5%.

再澄清一次。假設失業率處於什麼水平，您會保留現有的業務簿嗎？我知道它超過5%。

5.1%.

5.1%。

Yes. Our next question is from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

是的。我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

On the NII guide, so I think you've spoken extensively about the spreads. Wanted to get how much of the inversion in the yield curve was a factor in impacting the NII outlook?

在 NII 指南中，我認為您已經廣泛談論了價差。想知道收益率曲線的倒掛在多大程度上是影響 NII 前景的一個因素？

And tied to that, like with the 10 years [sub 340] this morning, like do you just not invest right now and wait for things to shake out? Or how do you think about balance sheet management in a world where maybe the 10 years headed to 3%, not 4% next?

與此相關的是，就像今天早上的 10 年 [sub 340]，就像你現在不投資並等待事情發生變化一樣？或者您如何看待未來 10 年可能達到 3% 而不是 4% 的世界中的資產負債表管理？

Yes. So that impacts the NII guide a bit only in terms of what our reinvestment yield is and will be when we -- when the existing security book rolls down, right? So you've seen the book yield on that rise from wherever to what is now 260-something.

是的。因此，這只會對 NII 指南產生一點影響，即我們的再投資收益率是多少，以及當我們 - 當現有的安全賬簿滾動時，對嗎？所以你已經看到賬面收益率從任何地方上升到現在的 260 左右。

Yes, the total book.

是的，整本書。

And that continues to increase as we -- as things roll off, we're reinvesting with high 4s, 5 handles on securities.

隨著我們的發展，這種情況會繼續增加——隨著事情的進展，我們正在對證券進行高 4 分、5 分的再投資。

Look, if the 10-year goes to 3%, if you look at the 5 year and 5 years, the implication of where long-term rates really have to head for that to be true, I just don't buy. I don't think we're going to be in an environment where the Fed is bouncing short-term funds around 1%, which I just don't think it's going to happen.

看，如果 10 年期國債收益率達到 3%，如果你看看 5 年期和 5 年期國債，這意味著長期利率真的必須朝著那個方向發展，我就是不買。我認為我們不會處於美聯儲將短期基金反彈至 1% 左右的環境中，我只是認為這不會發生。

I think we're going to -- I think we will get inflation under control, but I think it's going to be a struggle to get it under 3 long term. And I think front rates will rise -- will stay higher. They might cut and likely will cut from some 5% level.

我認為我們將 - 我認為我們將控制通貨膨脹，但我認為將其長期控制在 3 以下將是一場鬥爭。而且我認為前期利率會上升——會保持在較高水平。他們可能會削減，而且很可能會從大約 5% 的水平削減。

But this assumption that they're going to cut and therefore, rates are going to go back to 2 or 1, I just think is absurd. So therefore, to me, the back end of that curve is uninvestable. You're right, it could rally to there. Good for the people who own it as long as it's not me.

但我認為他們將降息並因此利率將回到 2 或 1 的假設是荒謬的。因此，對我來說，這條曲線的後端是不可投資的。你是對的，它可能反彈到那裡。對擁有它的人有好處，只要不是我。

Yes. No, that's fair. And again, I'm not saying it makes sense, but it's the world we live in. And I guess tied to that, I'm not sure if you gave explicit guidance in just some of those terms of deposit growth outlook. I mean still a lot of room when we look at the loan-to-deposit ratio.

是的。不，這很公平。再一次，我並不是說它有道理，但這是我們生活的世界。我想與此相關的是，我不確定你是否僅就存款增長前景的某些條款給出了明確的指導。我的意思是，當我們查看貸存比時，仍有很大空間。

Just give us a thought around how you're thinking about letting additional sort of rate-sensitive deposits run off, having a smaller balance sheet, creating more excess capital?

想一想您是如何考慮讓額外的利率敏感型存款流失、資產負債表變小、創造更多過剩資本？

Look, there's obviously -- we could, in the near term, increase earnings by being less competitive with deposits and let deposits run off. We have the liquidity to do that. We could increase our loan-to-deposit ratio.

看，很明顯 - 在短期內，我們可以通過降低與存款的競爭力並讓存款流失來增加收益。我們有足夠的流動性來做到這一點。我們可以提高貸存比。

The challenge with that is, in the course of doing that, you're damaging your long-term franchise. So if you're losing deposits that are not core relationship deposits that -- maybe that makes sense. But if you're losing customers in the process of that runoff, that's a mistake. And that's the -- that's the logic we use in figuring out how we price deposits and how we grow or maintain deposits.

這樣做的挑戰在於，在這樣做的過程中，你正在損害你的長期特許經營權。因此，如果您失去的存款不是核心關係存款，那也許是有道理的。但如果你在決勝過程中失去了客戶，那就錯了。這就是——這就是我們用來確定我們如何為存款定價以及我們如何增加或維持存款的邏輯。

That's fair. And if I may, one last question, Bill. In terms of just the macro uncertainty, how do you assess like the difference between credit normalization and whether or not we're getting into some version of a recession? Like -- can you conclusively think about that over the next few months or we're not going to know that until we are well into the depth of a downturn a few quarters from now?

這還算公平。如果可以的話，最後一個問題，比爾。就宏觀不確定性而言，您如何評估信貸正常化與我們是否正在陷入某種形式的衰退之間的差異？比如——你能在接下來的幾個月裡最終考慮到這一點嗎，或者我們不會知道這一點，直到我們從現在開始的幾個季度陷入低迷的深度？

We've given you our best forecast. Yes. I mean, look, there's a lot of unknowns here. Technically, we could see ourselves heading into a full employment "recession" because you'll have stale GDP for a couple of quarters, but unemployment not ticking up to high levels.

我們已經給了你最好的預測。是的。我的意思是，看，這裡有很多未知數。從技術上講，我們可能會看到自己正走向充分就業的“衰退”，因為你的 GDP 將在幾個季度內停滯不前，但失業率不會上升到高位。

And I don't even know how to think about that environment in terms of what charge-offs might be. I mean that's probably really low charge-off environment.

而且我什至不知道如何根據沖銷可能是什麼來考慮這種環境。我的意思是，這可能是真正低收費的環境。

Well, it's just to your point in terms of what I said at the beginning, it's really difficult for the full year, particularly this year. We've put together what we think we can do.

好吧，就我一開始說的，這就是你的意思，全年真的很難，尤其是今年。我們把我們認為可以做的事情放在一起。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

If we could just circle back on some of the lumpy costs. I guess, just in aggregate, like how much were the impairment? And then I think there was also -- you had called out some lumpiness from the long-term intensive plan, which I think impacts both fees and comp. If you could just kind of flesh out the aggregate lumpy costs, that would be helpful.

如果我們可以回過頭來解決一些成本過高的問題。我想，總的來說，減值有多少？然後我認為還有 - 你已經從長期強化計劃中指出了一些問題，我認為這會影響費用和報酬。如果您可以充實總體成本，那將很有幫助。

Yes. With that -- we don't have specific numbers. You can see them as they break down in terms of our impairments within the occupancy line and the equipment line. The long-term list was just the effect of a benefit in the third quarter and then it swung against us in the fourth quarter. So not big numbers, but just the delta between the 2 quarters drove the increase.

是的。有了這個 - 我們沒有具體數字。您可以看到它們在佔用線和設備線內的損傷方面發生故障。長期列表只是第三季度的一個好處，然後在第四季度對我們不利。所以不是很大的數字，而是兩個季度之間的增量推動了增長。

Okay. And then separately, I mean, I heard you earlier kind of reiterate the 8.5% to 9% CET1 target over time. And just any thoughts on the regional banks kind of just below your size? It seems like they're all kind of building capital close to 10%. And I don't know if it pressures behind the scenes from rating agencies or regulators or just conservatism for where we are in the cycle. But any thoughts on the company of your size being able to run 9% when the ones -- obviously, the banks that are bigger are running higher, but it's just been interesting to note that the ones below you, kind of $200 billion in assets, all seem to be building closer to 10%?

好的。然後分別地，我的意思是，我聽到你早些時候重申了 8.5% 到 9% 的 CET1 目標。對規模略低於您的區域性銀行有什麼想法嗎？看起來他們都是接近 10% 的建築資本。我不知道它是否來自評級機構或監管機構的幕後壓力，或者只是我們在周期中所處位置的保守主義。但是任何關於你規模的公司能夠運行 9% 的想法 - 顯然，更大的銀行運行更高，但有趣的是注意到那些在你下面的，大約 2000 億美元的資產, 似乎都在接近 10%？

Do you want to answer? Well, the only thing -- the only -- the only thoughts that I have just reacting is the guidelines are typically drawn for all banks in terms of the stress capital buffer. So how they stress, you got to look at that. And then it's the relative capital levels to the stress levels as opposed to the absolute levels. But that's just my reaction.

你想回答嗎？好吧，唯一 - 唯一 - 我剛剛反應的唯一想法是通常根據壓力資本緩衝為所有銀行製定指導方針。所以他們如何強調，你必須看看。然後是相對於壓力水平的相對資本水平，而不是絕對水平。但這只是我的反應。

Okay. But I guess the point is like do you feel comfortable with whatever kind of behind-the-scene stuff that's going on with the rating agencies, regulators, the 9% and maybe drifting down a little bit over time, but at 9% do you feel real comfortable within the current environment?

好的。但我想重點是你對評級機構、監管機構和 9% 發生的任何幕後事情感到舒服嗎，也許隨著時間的推移會下降一點點，但你對 9% 是否感到滿意？在當前環境中是否感到真正舒適？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Our next question is from the line of Vivek Juneja with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Vivek Juneja。

Just a couple of quick ones. Any color on criticized assets, how they did? How those did in the quarter?

只是幾個快速的。被批評的資產有任何顏色，他們是怎麼做到的？這些在本季度的表現如何？

Yes, relatively flat, not a big change at all.

是的，比較平淡，變化不大。

And Bill, just not to beat a dead horse to death, but the whole set of question on NII and swaps and protection, given that you think of swaps and securities sort of synonymously in terms of expressing your view on rates. I would expect that you're going to hold off, therefore, even on the swap side in terms of adding protection yet until you see clearer signs of a lot more potential for rate cuts?

比爾，只是不想打死一匹死馬，而是關於 NII 和掉期和保護的整套問題，因為你認為掉期和證券在表達你對利率的看法方面有點同義。因此，我希望你會推遲，即使在增加保護方面的互換方面，直到你看到更明顯的跡象表明降息的可能性更大？

Yes. It's -- I mean it's strange to me, Vivek, you're a bit of a fixed income guy, this notion of protection, I mean, what a lot of banks are doing is they'll put on forward starting swaps and they'll not have to eat negative carry in the course of doing that. And they'll hope sometime by the time those come due, that there is a negative carry because there'll be a cut.

是的。這是 - 我的意思是這對我來說很奇怪，Vivek，你有點像固定收益的人，這種保護的概念，我的意思是，很多銀行正在做的是他們會進行遠期掉期，他們'在這樣做的過程中，你不必吃負進位。他們希望在到期時的某個時候出現負利，因為會有削減。

So you effectively -- I mean everything is priced at the forward curve when they do that trade. It makes no sense to me. It's the same as choosing to invest at the moment on where the yield curve is. That's "my downside protection."

所以你實際上 - 我的意思是當他們進行交易時，一切都以遠期曲線定價。對我來說完全是無稽之談。這與選擇當前收益率曲線所在的位置進行投資是一樣的。那是“我的下行保護”。

I can buy -- we can sell it, we can use options and sell away upside and buy some downside protection. As a practical matter, we're not wildly out of bounds in terms of -- while we're asset sensitive, we're not wildly asset sensitive. And it just doesn't feel like the moment when you're supposed to be long, particularly if you have a view that rates in the go-forward decade are not going to look like rates during the 2012 to 2020 year.

我可以買 - 我們可以賣掉它，我們可以使用期權並賣出上行併購買一些下行保護。作為一個實際問題，我們並沒有超出範圍——雖然我們對資產敏感，但我們對資產並不敏感。感覺現在不是你應該做多的時刻，特別是如果你認為未來十年的利率看起來不像 2012 年至 2020 年的利率。

So that's where we sit.

這就是我們坐的地方。

And there are no further questions on the line at this time. I'll turn the presentation back to Bryan Gill for any closing remarks.

目前在線上沒有其他問題。我會將演示文稿轉回給 Bryan Gill 聽取任何結束語。

Well, thank you all for joining the call today. If you have any other follow-ups, please reach out to the IR team, and we'll be happy to help you out. Thank you.

好吧，謝謝大家今天加入電話會議。如果您有任何其他跟進，請聯繫 IR 團隊，我們很樂意為您提供幫助。謝謝你。

Thanks, everybody.

謝謝大家。

Thank you.

謝謝你。