PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to today's conference call for the PNC Financial Services Group. Participating on this call are PNC's Chairman, President and CEO, Bill Demchak; and Rob Reilly, Executive Vice President and CFO.

早上好，歡迎參加今天的 PNC 金融服務集團電話會議。參加此次電話會議的有 PNC 主席、總裁兼首席執行官 Bill Demchak；和執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Rob Reilly。

Today's presentation contains forward-looking information. Cautionary statements about this information as well as reconciliations of non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release materials as well as our SEC filings and other investor materials. These materials are all available on our corporate website, pnc.com, under Investor Relations. These statements speak only as of July 15, 2022, and PNC undertakes no obligation to update them.

今天的演示文稿包含前瞻性信息。今天的收益發布材料以及我們的 SEC 文件和其他投資者材料中包含有關此信息的警告聲明以及非 GAAP 措施的調節。這些材料都可以在我們的公司網站 pnc.com 的投資者關係下找到。這些聲明僅在 2022 年 7 月 15 日生效，PNC 不承擔更新它們的義務。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bill.

現在我想把電話轉給比爾。

Thanks, Bryan, and good morning, everybody. As you've seen, we had a strong second quarter, highlighted by 9% revenue growth and solid positive operating leverage resulting in PPNR growth of 23%. We maintained strong credit quality and fees rebounded from the first quarter, driven primarily by capital markets activity, including Harris Williams, and continued growth in card and cash management. Strong loan growth and rising rates helped us to increase both net interest income and net interest margin meaningfully. Loan growth was driven by C&I, where new production increased significantly and utilization returned to near pre-pandemic levels. Consumer loans also grew, driven by mortgage and home equity.

謝謝，布萊恩，大家早上好。如您所見，我們的第二季度表現強勁，收入增長 9% 和穩健的正經營槓桿導致 PPNR 增長 23%。我們保持強勁的信用質量，費用從第一季度開始反彈，主要受資本市場活動的推動，包括哈里斯威廉姆斯，以及卡和現金管理的持續增長。強勁的貸款增長和利率上升幫助我們顯著增加了淨利息收入和淨息差。貸款增長由工商業推動，新產量顯著增加，利用率恢復到接近大流行前的水平。在抵押貸款和房屋淨值的推動下，消費貸款也有所增長。

Higher rates continued to adversely impact the unrealized value of our securities book. In response, we continue to reposition the portfolio during the quarter, resulting in 60% of our securities portfolio now being held and held to maturity. We returned $1.4 billion of capital to shareholders during the quarter through share repurchases and dividends.

較高的利率繼續對我們證券賬簿的未實現價值產生不利影響。作為回應，我們在本季度繼續重新定位投資組合，導致我們 60% 的證券投資組合現在被持有並持有至到期。我們在本季度通過股票回購和分紅向股東返還了 14 億美元的資本。

Looking forward, there is uncertainty in the environment we're operating and including the impact of higher rates, supply chain disruptions and inflation. But regardless of the path ahead macroeconomically, we believe having a strong balance sheet, a solid mix of fee-based businesses, continued focus on expense management and differentiated strategies for organic growth will continue to provide the foundation for our success. And our focus is on executing the things we can control and not getting distracted by what is beyond our control.

展望未來，我們的經營環境存在不確定性，包括利率上漲、供應鏈中斷和通貨膨脹的影響。但無論宏觀經濟的發展道路如何，我們相信擁有強勁的資產負債表、穩健的收費業務組合、持續關注費用管理和差異化的有機增長戰略將繼續為我們的成功奠定基礎。我們的重點是執行我們可以控制的事情，而不是被我們無法控制的事情分心。

Along those lines, we delivered well on our strategic priorities in the quarter, including the build-out of our new BBVA and expansion markets, modernizing our retail banking technology platform, bolstering our asset management offering and building differentiated and responsible capabilities for our retail and commercial customers in the payment space. As I've talked about recently at conferences, our performance in the BBVA markets has exceeded our own expectations.

沿著這些思路，我們在本季度很好地完成了我們的戰略重點，包括擴建我們的新 BBVA 和擴展市場、現代化我們的零售銀行技術平台、加強我們的資產管理產品以及為我們的零售和建立差異化和負責任的能力。支付領域的商業客戶。正如我最近在會議上談到的，我們在 BBVA 市場的表現超出了我們自己的預期。

On Slide 3, you can see the strong growth we've generated in these markets across customer segments. In corporate banking, we've seen sales increase 40% linked quarter and maintained a 50% noncredit mix of sales since conversion. We've seen similar growth within commercial banking, where sales in the BBVA USA markets are up 32% linked quarter and noncredit sales to total sales have been approximately 55% since conversion. In retail banking, we've experienced a notable increase in sales for both small businesses and consumers of 16% and 22%, respectively. And we continue to invest in AMG, and a big part of that is building a strong customer-focused team that can deliver our brand across our footprint.

在幻燈片 3 上，您可以看到我們在這些市場中跨越客戶群產生的強勁增長。在企業銀行業務中，我們看到銷售額在關聯季度增長了 40%，並且自轉換以來保持了 50% 的非信貸銷售額組合。我們在商業銀行業務中也看到了類似的增長，其中 BBVA 美國市場的銷售額在相關季度增長了 32%，非信貸銷售額佔總銷售額的比例自轉換以來約為 55%。在零售銀行業務中，小企業和消費者的銷售額分別顯著增長了 16% 和 22%。我們繼續投資於 AMG，其中很大一部分是建立一個強大的以客戶為中心的團隊，可以在我們的足跡中傳遞我們的品牌。

We have built good momentum in our recruiting efforts over the past few quarters, hiring advisers across all areas of the business to help deliver for our clients. I'll close by thanking our employees for their hard work and dedication to our customers and communities.

過去幾個季度，我們在招聘工作中建立了良好的勢頭，在業務的各個領域都聘請了顧問，以幫助為我們的客戶提供服務。最後，我要感謝我們的員工的辛勤工作和對客戶和社區的奉獻。

Moving forward, we believe that we're well positioned to continue to grow shareholder value. And with that, I'll turn it over to Rob for a closer look at our results, and then we'll take your questions.

展望未來，我們相信我們有能力繼續增加股東價值。有了這個，我會把它交給 Rob 來仔細看看我們的結果，然後我們會回答你的問題。

Well, thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Our balance sheet is on Slide 4 and is presented on an average basis. During the quarter, loan balances averaged $305 billion, an increase of $14 billion or 5%. Investment securities grew approximately $1 billion or 1%. Our average cash balances at the Federal Reserve declined $23 billion. Deposit balances averaged $447 billion, a decline of $7 billion or 2%. Our tangible book value was $74.39 per common share as of June 30, a 7% decline linked quarter, entirely AOCI driven as a function of higher rates.

好吧，謝謝，比爾，大家早上好。我們的資產負債表在幻燈片 4 上，以平均水平呈現。本季度，貸款餘額平均為 3050 億美元，增加 140 億美元或 5%。投資證券增長約 10 億美元或 1%。我們在美聯儲的平均現金餘額減少了 230 億美元。存款餘額平均為 4,470 億美元，減少 70 億美元或 2%。截至 6 月 30 日，我們的有形賬面價值為每股普通股 74.39 美元，環比下降 7%，這完全是 AOCI 受利率上漲驅動的。

And as of June 30, 2022, our CET1 ratio was estimated to be 9.6%. Given our strong capital ratios, we continue to be well positioned with significant capital flexibility. During the quarter, we returned $1.4 billion of capital to shareholders through $627 million of common dividends and $737 million of share repurchases for 4.3 million shares.

截至 2022 年 6 月 30 日，我們的 CET1 比率估計為 9.6%。鑑於我們強大的資本比率，我們繼續處於有利地位，具有顯著的資本靈活性。在本季度，我們通過 6.27 億美元的普通股股息和 7.37 億美元的 430 萬股股票回購向股東返還了 14 億美元的資本。

Our recent CCAR results underscore the strength of our balance sheet and support our commitment to returning capital to our shareholders. As you know, our Stress Capital Buffer for the fourth quarter period beginning in October 2022 is now 2.9%, and our applicable ratios are comfortably in excess of the regulatory minimums. Earlier this year, our Board of Directors authorized a new repurchase framework, which allows for up to 100 million common shares, of which approximately 59% were still available for repurchase as of June 30. This allows for the continuation of our recent average share repurchase levels in dollars as well as the flexibility to increase those levels should conditions warrant.

我們最近的 CCAR 業績突顯了我們資產負債表的實力，並支持我們向股東返還資本的承諾。如您所知，我們從 2022 年 10 月開始的第四季度的壓力資本緩衝現在為 2.9%，我們的適用比率遠遠超過了監管最低限度。今年早些時候，我們的董事會授權了一個新的回購框架，該框架允許最多 1 億股普通股，截至 6 月 30 日，其中約 59% 仍可供回購。這允許我們繼續進行最近的平均股票回購美元水平以及在條件允許時提高這些水平的靈活性。

Slide 5 shows our loans in more detail. During the second quarter, we delivered solid loan growth across our expanded franchise, particularly when compared to 2021 growth rates. 2021, as you know, was characterized by low utilization levels, PPP loan forgiveness, and in PNC's case, a repositioning of certain acquisition-related portfolios. Loan balances averaged $305 billion, an increase of $14 billion or 5% compared to the first quarter, reflecting growth in both commercial and consumer loans.

幻燈片 5 更詳細地顯示了我們的貸款。在第二季度，我們擴大的特許經營權實現了穩健的貸款增長，特別是與 2021 年的增長率相比。如您所知，2021 年的特點是利用率低、PPP 貸款免除，以及在 PNC 的情況下，重新定位某些與收購相關的投資組合。貸款餘額平均為 3050 億美元，比第一季度增加 140 億美元或 5%，反映了商業和消費貸款的增長。

Commercial loans, excluding PPP, grew $13 billion, driven by higher new production as well as utilization. Included in this growth was approximately $5 billion related to high-quality, short-term loans that are expected to mature during the second half of the year. Notably, in our C&IB segment, the utilization rate increased more than 120 basis points, and our overall commitments were 5% higher compared to the first quarter. PPP loan balances declined $1.2 billion, and at the end of the quarter were less than $1 billion. Consumer loans increased $2 billion as higher mortgage and home equity balances were partially offset by lower auto loans. And loan yields increased 10 basis points compared to the first quarter, driven by higher interest rates.

在新產量和利用率增加的推動下，不包括 PPP 的商業貸款增長了 130 億美元。這一增長中包括約 50 億美元，與預計將在下半年到期的高質量短期貸款有關。值得注意的是，在我們的 C&IB 部門，利用率增加了 120 多個基點，與第一季度相比，我們的總體承諾高出 5%。 PPP 貸款餘額下降了 12 億美元，到本季度末不到 10 億美元。由於較高的抵押貸款和房屋淨值餘額被較低的汽車貸款部分抵消，消費者貸款增加了 20 億美元。在利率上升的推動下，與第一季度相比，貸款收益率增加了 10 個基點。

Slide 6 highlights the composition of our deposit portfolio as well as the average balance changes linked quarter. We have a strong core deposit base, which is 2/3 interest-bearing and 1/3 noninterest-bearing. Within interest-bearing, 70% are consumer. And within noninterest-bearing, 50% are commercial compensating balances and represent stable operating deposits. At the end of the second quarter, our loan-to-deposit ratio was 71%, which remains well below our pre-pandemic historic average.

幻燈片 6 突出顯示了我們存款組合的構成以及相關季度的平均餘額變化。我們擁有強大的核心存款基礎，其中 2/3 有息，1/3 無息。在計息範圍內，70% 是消費者。在不計息的情況下，50% 是商業補償餘額，代表穩定的經營存款。第二季度末，我們的貸存比為 71%，仍遠低於疫情前的歷史平均水平。

On the right, you can see linked quarter change in deposits in more detail. Deposits averaged $447 billion in the second quarter, a decline of nearly $7 billion or 2% linked quarter. Commercial deposits declined $8 billion or 4%, primarily in noninterest-bearing deposits due to movement to higher-yielding investments and seasonality. Average consumer deposits increased seasonally by $2 billion or 1%.

在右側，您可以更詳細地查看相關的存款季度變化。第二季度存款平均為 4,470 億美元，環比下降近 70 億美元或 2%。商業存款減少了 80 億美元或 4%，主要是由於轉向高收益投資和季節性的非計息存款。平均消費者存款季節性增加 20 億美元或 1%。

Overall, our rate paid on interest-bearing deposits increased 8 basis points linked quarter to 12 basis points. Deposit betas have lagged early in the rate-rising cycle, but we expect our deposit betas to accelerate in the third quarter and throughout the remainder of the year given our increased rate forecast. And as a result, we now expect our betas to approach 30% by year-end, compared to our previous expectation of 22%.

總體而言，我們的有息存款利率上調 8 個基點至 12 個基點。存款貝塔在加息週期的早期滯後，但鑑於我們提高利率預測，我們預計存款貝塔將在第三季度和今年剩餘時間加速。因此，我們現在預計到年底我們的 beta 將接近 30%，而我們之前的預期為 22%。

Slide 7 details our securities portfolio. On an average basis, our securities grew $800 million or 1% during the quarter, representing a slower pace of reinvestment in light of the rapidly rising interest rate environment. The yield on our securities portfolio increased 25 basis points to 1.89%, driven by higher reinvestment yields as well as lower premium amortization.

幻燈片 7 詳細介紹了我們的證券投資組合。平均而言，我們的證券在本季度增長了 8 億美元或 1%，鑑於利率環境迅速上升，代表再投資步伐放緩。我們的證券投資組合的收益率增加了 25 個基點至 1.89%，這主要得益於更高的再投資收益率以及更低的溢價攤銷。

On a spot basis, our securities remained relatively stable during the second quarter as net purchases were largely offset by net unrealized losses on the portfolio. As Bill mentioned, in total, we now have 60% of our securities in held-to-maturity as of June 30, which will help mitigate future AOCI impacts from rising interest rates. Net pretax unrealized losses on the securities portfolio totaled $8.3 billion at the end of the second quarter. This includes $5.4 billion related to securities transferred to held-to-maturity, which will accrete back over the remaining lives of those securities.

在現貨基礎上，我們的證券在第二季度保持相對穩定，因為淨購買在很大程度上被投資組合的未實現淨虧損所抵消。正如比爾所說，截至 6 月 30 日，我們現在總共有 60% 的證券持有至到期，這將有助於減輕利率上升對未來 AOCI 的影響。截至第二季度末，證券投資組合的稅前未實現淨虧損總計 83 億美元。這包括與轉移至持有至到期的證券相關的 54 億美元，這將在這些證券的剩餘期限內重新增加。

Turning to the income statement on Slide 8. As you can see, second quarter 2022 reported net income was $1.5 billion or $3.39 per share, which included pretax integration costs of $14 million. Excluding integration costs, adjusted EPS was $3.42. Revenue was up $424 million or 9% compared with the first quarter. Expenses increased $72 million or 2%, resulting in 7% positive operating leverage linked quarter. Provision was $36 million, and our effective tax rate was 18.5%.

轉到幻燈片 8 上的損益表。如您所見，2022 年第二季度報告的淨收入為 15 億美元或每股 3.39 美元，其中包括 1400 萬美元的稅前整合成本。不計整合成本，調整後每股收益為 3.42 美元。與第一季度相比，收入增加了 4.24 億美元或 9%。費用增加了 7200 萬美元或 2%，導致 7% 的正經營槓桿聯繫季度。撥備為 3600 萬美元，我們的有效稅率為 18.5%。

Now let's discuss the key drivers of this performance in more detail. Slide 9 details our revenue trends. Total revenue for the second quarter of $5.1 billion, increased 9% or $424 million linked quarter. Net interest income of $3.1 billion, was up $247 million or 9%. The benefit of higher yields on interest-earning assets and increased loan balances was partially offset by higher funding costs. And as a result, net interest margin increased 22 basis points to 2.5%. Second quarter fee income was $1.9 billion, an increase of $211 million or 13% linked quarter.

現在讓我們更詳細地討論這種性能的關鍵驅動因素。幻燈片 9 詳細介紹了我們的收入趨勢。第二季度總收入為 51 億美元，比上一季度增長 9% 或 4.24 億美元。淨利息收入為 31 億美元，增加 2.47 億美元或 9%。生息資產收益率提高和貸款餘額增加的好處被較高的融資成本部分抵消。因此，淨息差增加 22 個基點至 2.5%。第二季度費用收入為 19 億美元，比上一季度增加 2.11 億美元或 13%。

Looking at the detail of each category. Asset management and brokerage fees decreased $12 million or 3%, reflecting lower average equity markets. Capital market-related fees rebounded as expected and increased to $157 million or 62%, driven by higher M&A advisory fees. Card and cash management revenue grew $51 million or 8%, driven by higher consumer spending activity and increased treasury management product revenue.

查看每個類別的詳細信息。資產管理和經紀費用減少了 1,200 萬美元或 3%，反映了平均股市下跌。受併購諮詢費用上漲的推動，資本市場相關費用如預期反彈並增至 1.57 億美元或 62%。卡和現金管理收入增長了 5100 萬美元或 8%，這得益於消費者支出活動的增加和資金管理產品收入的增加。

Lending and deposit services increased $13 million or 5%, reflecting seasonally higher activity and included lower integration-related fee waivers. Residential and commercial mortgage noninterest income was essentially stable linked quarter, with higher revenue from commercial mortgage banking activities offset lower residential mortgage loan sales revenue.

貸款和存款服務增加了 1300 萬美元或 5%，反映了季節性活動的增加，包括與整合相關的費用減免減少。住宅和商業抵押貸款非利息收入基本穩定，與季度掛鉤，商業抵押銀行業務收入增加抵消了住宅抵押貸款銷售收入下降。

Finally, other noninterest income declined $34 million and included a $16 million Visa negative fair value adjustment related to litigation escrow funding and derivative valuation changes.

最後，其他非利息收入下降了 3400 萬美元，其中包括與訴訟託管資金和衍生品估值變化相關的 1600 萬美元的 Visa 負公允價值調整。

Turning to Slide 10. Our second quarter expenses were up by $72 million or 2% linked quarter, driven by increased business activity, merit increases and higher marketing spend. These increases were partially offset by seasonally lower occupancy expense and lower other expense. We remain deliberate around our expense management. And as we've previously stated, we have a goal to reduce costs by $300 million in 2022 through our continuous improvement program, and we're confident we'll achieve our full year target. As you know, this program funds a significant portion of our ongoing business and technology investments.

轉到幻燈片 10。由於業務活動增加、績效增加和營銷支出增加，我們第二季度的支出增加了 7200 萬美元或 2% 的關聯季度。這些增長部分被季節性較低的入住費用和較低的其他費用所抵消。我們仍然在我們的費用管理方面深思熟慮。正如我們之前所說，我們的目標是通過我們的持續改進計劃在 2022 年將成本降低 3 億美元，我們有信心實現全年目標。如您所知，該計劃資助了我們正在進行的業務和技術投資的很大一部分。

Our credit metrics are presented on Slide 11. Overall, we saw broad improvements across all categories. Nonperforming loans of $2 billion, decreased $252 million or 11% compared to March 31, and continue to represent less than 1% of total loans. Total delinquencies were $1.5 billion on June 30, a $188 million decline linked quarter, reflecting lower consumer and commercial loan delinquencies, which included the resolution of acquisition-related administrative and operational delays.

我們的信用指標顯示在幻燈片 11 中。總體而言，我們看到所有類別的廣泛改進。不良貸款為 20 億美元，與 3 月 31 日相比減少了 2.52 億美元或 11%，並且繼續佔貸款總額的不到 1%。 6 月 30 日，拖欠總額為 15 億美元，環比下降 1.88 億美元，反映出消費者和商業貸款拖欠率下降，其中包括解決與收購相關的行政和運營延誤。

Net charge-offs for loans and leases were $83 million, a decrease of $54 million linked quarter, driven by lower consumer net charge-offs, primarily within the auto portfolio. Our annualized net charge-offs to average loans continues to be historically low at 11 basis points. And during the second quarter, our allowance for credit losses remained essentially stable, and our reserves now total $5.1 billion or 1.7% of total loans.

貸款和租賃的淨沖銷為 8300 萬美元，比上一季度減少 5400 萬美元，主要是由於消費者淨沖銷減少，主要是在汽車投資組合中。我們對平均貸款的年化淨沖銷繼續處於歷史低位，為 11 個基點。在第二季度，我們的信貸損失準備金基本保持穩定，我們的準備金總額為 51 億美元，佔貸款總額的 1.7%。

In summary, PNC reported a solid second quarter, and we're well positioned for the second half of 2022 as we continue to realize the potential of our coast-to-coast franchise. In regard to our view of the overall economy, we expect the pace of economic growth to slow over the remainder of 2022, resulting in 2% average annual real GDP growth. We also expect the Fed to raise rates by an additional cumulative 175 basis points through the remainder of this year to a range of 3.25% to 3.5% by year-end.

總而言之，PNC 報告了第二季度的穩健表現，我們在 2022 年下半年處於有利位置，因為我們將繼續實現我們從海岸到海岸的特許經營的潛力。關於我們對整體經濟的看法，我們預計經濟增長速度將在 2022 年剩餘時間內放緩，導致年均實際 GDP 增長 2%。我們還預計美聯儲將在今年剩餘時間內累計加息 175 個基點，到年底達到 3.25% 至 3.5% 的範圍。

Looking at the third quarter of 2022, compared to the second quarter of 2022, we expect average loan balances to be up 1% to 2%. We expect net interest income to be up 10% to 12%. We expect noninterest income to be down 3% to 5%, which results in total revenue increasing 4% to 6%. We expect total noninterest expense to be stable to up 1%. And we expect third quarter net charge-offs to be between $125 million and $175 million.

展望 2022 年第三季度，與 2022 年第二季度相比，我們預計平均貸款餘額將增長 1% 至 2%。我們預計淨利息收入將增長 10% 至 12%。我們預計非利息收入將下降 3% 至 5%，這將導致總收入增長 4% 至 6%。我們預計總非利息支出將穩定在 1% 左右。我們預計第三季度的淨沖銷額將在 1.25 億美元至 1.75 億美元之間。

Considering our reported operating results for the first half of 2022, third quarter expectations, and current economic forecast for the full year 2022 compared to the full year 2021, we expect average loan growth of approximately 13% by an 8% loan growth on a spot basis. We expect total revenue growth to be 9% to 11%. Our revenue outlook for the full year is unchanged from the guidance we provided in April. However, relative to our expectations at that time, we now expect more net interest income from higher rates, offset by somewhat lower fees. We expect expenses, excluding integration expense, to be up 4% to 6%. And we now expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 19%.

考慮到我們公佈的 2022 年上半年的經營業績、第三季度的預期，以及目前對 2022 年全年與 2021 年相比的經濟預測，我們預計平均貸款增長約 13%，即期貸款增長 8%基礎。我們預計總收入增長為 9% 至 11%。我們全年的收入前景與我們在 4 月份提供的指導相比沒有變化。然而，相對於我們當時的預期，我們現在預計更高的利率會帶來更多的淨利息收入，但會被較低的費用所抵消。我們預計費用（不包括整合費用）將增長 4% 至 6%。我們現在預計我們的有效稅率約為 19%。

And with that, Bill and I are ready to take your questions.

有了這個，比爾和我準備好回答你的問題了。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Rob, can you elaborate a little further on the deposit beta change? Is it purely just the rate of change in interest rates going up so fast? Or is there a deposit mix that's also influencing your new outlook for the beta?

Rob，你能詳細說明一下存款測試版的變化嗎？僅僅是利率變化速度如此之快嗎？或者是否有存款組合也會影響您對 Beta 版的新前景？

Yes, probably both, but a little bit more of the former. We're just at that point now where we're seeing rates rising to the point where the betas are becoming active. They were not that active on the consumer side. A little bit on the commercial side in the first quarter, and that's picked up a bit. More on the commercial side as we expected. And in our case, it's our nonoperating deposits that explains the decline there in the second quarter. So betas are beginning to move. We expected that, and we're ready for it.

是的，可能兩者都有，但前者多一點。我們現在只是在那個時候，我們看到利率上升到貝塔變得活躍的地步。他們在消費者方面並不那麼活躍。第一季度在商業方面有一點點，而且有所回升。正如我們預期的那樣，更多的是商業方面。在我們的案例中，我們的非經營性存款解釋了第二季度的下降。所以貝塔開始移動。我們預料到了這一點，我們已經做好了準備。

Very good. Credit quality, obviously, was quite strong for you folks, similar to the prior quarter. And Bill, I don't know -- I know there's a lot of uncertainty out there with what's going on in the world, but it just seems that for your company at least, you are so well positioned from a credit quality standpoint. And is it -- are we just going to go off a cliff or something at the end of the year with some sort of big recession that has frightened everybody about credit quality for banks in general? And any elaboration on your outlook on credit and the outlook for the economy?

很好。顯然，對你們來說，信用質量非常好，與上一季度相似。比爾，我不知道——我知道世界上正在發生的事情有很多不確定性，但至少對於你的公司來說，從信用質量的角度來看，你的定位非常好。是不是 - 我們是否會在今年年底出現某種大衰退，讓每個人都對銀行的信貸質量感到恐懼？對您的信貸前景和經濟前景有何詳細說明？

Yes. Look, I don't think there's any cliff involved. I do think that the trouble ahead lies somewhere in the middle of next year not any time in the next 6 months. But what you're seeing inside of our credit book, you got to remember that during this period of time, we continue to kind of run off a higher risk book from BBVA, and our loan growth is largely in higher quality names. So the overall quality of our book actually improves quarter-on-quarter.

是的。看，我不認為有任何懸崖。我確實認為未來的麻煩在於明年年中的某個地方，而不是未來 6 個月的任何時候。但是您在我們的信用賬簿中看到的內容，您必須記住，在這段時間裡，我們繼續從 BBVA 獲得更高風險的賬簿，我們的貸款增長主要來自更高質量的名稱。因此，我們圖書的整體質量實際上比上一季度有所提高。

Eventually, that has to stop. And eventually, I think the Fed has to slow the economy to a pace to get inflation under control, and I think that's going to be harder to do than the market currently assumes. And I think it's going to take longer than the market currently assumes. And when that happens, we're going to see credit costs go up at least back to what we would call normalized levels. But I don't think -- I don't see any particular bubbles inside of the banking system as it relates to credit. I think you're just going to see a slow grind with credit losses increasing over time as we get into the slowdown.

最終，這必須停止。最終，我認為美聯儲必須將經濟放緩到控制通脹的速度，而且我認為這將比市場目前假設的更難。而且我認為這將需要比市場目前假設的更長的時間。當這種情況發生時，我們將看到信貸成本至少回升至我們所說的標準化水平。但我不認為——我沒有看到銀行系統內部存在任何與信貸相關的特定泡沫。我認為隨著我們進入經濟放緩，您只會看到信貸損失隨著時間的推移而緩慢增長。

And some normalization.

和一些規範化。

I'm sorry, what was that, Rob? I'm sorry.

對不起，那是什麼，羅伯？對不起。

I'm saying that just -- and Bill mentioned it, Gerard, just some normalization, which is inevitable.

我是說——比爾提到了，杰拉德，只是一些正常化，這是不可避免的。

And our next question comes from the line of Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Bill Carcache。

There was a time where you talked about increasing the mix of your securities given all the liquidity in the system. But as the Fed engages in QT and with the strong loan growth that you're seeing, could we see you go the other way and perhaps redeploy some of your securities portfolio paydowns to fund more of your growth such that you actually remix more -- a larger mix of your earning assets towards loans?

有一段時間，您談到考慮到系統中的所有流動性，增加您的證券組合。但是，隨著美聯儲參與 QT 以及您所看到的強勁貸款增長，我們是否可以看到您走另一條路，也許重新部署您的一些證券投資組合償還資金來為您的增長提供更多資金，這樣您實際上可以重新組合更多-將您的收入資產用於貸款的更大組合？

I think over time, that is probably likely if we continue to see loan growth we do. But you shouldn't mix security balances with the way we think about fixed rate exposure hedging our deposits, right? Securities are one way we do that, swaps are another way, and then, of course, our fixed rate assets themselves. And then inside of that, the duration of the securities we buy. So long story short, the balances probably decline, but we're sitting in a period of time right now where we're very asset sensitive. You'll notice our balances basically stayed flat through the course of the quarter as we kind of purposely watch and let things roll off here given our view on what we think longer-term rates are going to ultimately do. So balances could go down just as a matter of sort of algebra in the balance sheet, but our ability to invest in rising rates is still there in a large way.

我認為隨著時間的推移，如果我們繼續看到我們的貸款增長，這很可能是可能的。但是您不應該將安全餘額與我們認為對沖存款的固定利率風險敞口的方式混為一談，對吧？證券是我們這樣做的一種方式，掉期是另一種方式，當然還有我們的固定利率資產本身。然後在其中，我們購買的證券的期限。長話短說，餘額可能會下降，但我們現在正處於一個對資產非常敏感的時期。您會注意到，我們的餘額在整個季度中基本保持不變，因為我們有目的地觀察並讓事情在這裡滾落，因為我們對我們認為長期利率最終會做些什麼的看法。因此，餘額可能會下降，就像資產負債表中的代數一樣，但我們投資於利率上升的能力仍然很大。

Yes, that's right. Well, the context -- Bill, as you know, the context of your question is historically pre sort of the rapid increase in liquidity over the last couple of years. We did run about 20% of our securities to our earning assets. We raised that because of all the liquidity in the system. So we're still pretty high on a historical basis, but as Bill Demchak just said, that's not likely to change anytime soon.

是的，這是正確的。好吧，背景——比爾，如你所知，你的問題背景是過去幾年流動性快速增加的歷史。我們確實將大約 20% 的證券用於我們的盈利資產。我們提出這一點是因為系統中的所有流動性。所以我們在歷史基礎上仍然很高，但正如比爾·德姆查克剛才所說，這不太可能很快改變。

That's very helpful. And separately, as the Fed proceeds through the hiking cycle at some point, I think as you've both alluded to in your comments, that's going to presumably slow the pace of growth. But you are taking your loan growth guidance higher for the year. Maybe could you speak to how much of that improved outlook is idiosyncratic because it certainly does sound like that you're expecting a deceleration at some point at the macro level.

這很有幫助。另外，隨著美聯儲在某個時候進入加息週期，我認為正如你們在評論中提到的那樣，這可能會減緩增長速度。但是您將今年的貸款增長指導提高了。也許你能談談這種改善的前景有多少是特殊的，因為這聽起來確實像是你預計宏觀層面的某個時候會減速。

A lot of it just comes from our ability to win new business. Utilization rates have largely approached where we were, I think, Rob pre-pandemic at this point.

其中很多只是來自我們贏得新業務的能力。我認為，在這一點上，使用率已基本接近 Rob 大流行前的水平。

Yes.

是的。

So there's a little bit of room there. But these new markets and our -- just our ability to win new business. And by the way, new business that is 50% fee-based is pretty strong. And we feel confident we'll be able to continue to do that independent of what happens in the economy.

所以那裡有一點空間。但是這些新市場和我們——只是我們贏得新業務的能力。順便說一句，50% 收費的新業務非常強大。我們相信我們將能夠繼續這樣做，而不受經濟中發生的事情的影響。

Yes. And I would just add to that. In terms of the loan growth outlook for the 12 months, we're up a bit, mostly because of the outperformance in the first half relative to our expectations. So that's sort of truing up, so to speak.

是的。我只想補充一點。就 12 個月的貸款增長前景而言，我們略有上升，主要是因為上半年的表現優於我們的預期。可以這麼說，這有點正確。

Got it. If I could squeeze in one last one. I think it's interesting, Bill, to think about your commentary around the normalization of credit as the Fed proceeds through its hiking cycle. And sort of we think about the long and variable lags that between monetary policy and when that ultimately starts to show up in credit. And then we sort of juxtapose that with what's happening with reserve rates, which it's notable that for most of your peers, they've drifted below their day 1 levels. And I know, for you guys, there's a BBVA deal and lots of other moving parts, but that 1.65% seems relatively conservative.

知道了。如果我能擠上最後一個。比爾，我認為在美聯儲繼續其加息週期時，考慮一下你對信貸正常化的評論很有趣。我們在某種程度上考慮了貨幣政策與最終開始出現在信貸之間的長期和可變的滯後。然後我們將其與準備金率的情況並列，值得注意的是，對於大多數同行來說，他們已經低於第一天的水平。我知道，對你們來說，有 BBVA 交易和許多其他活動部分，但 1.65% 似乎相對保守。

How are you thinking about the trajectory of that from here in the context of the thought process you just laid out of the Fed hiking cycle eventually leading to credit normalization probably as we get into maybe the middle of next year or somewhere in that time frame?

在你剛剛提出的美聯儲加息週期最終導致信貸正常化的思維過程的背景下，你如何看待從這裡開始的軌跡，可能在我們進入明年年中或那個時間框架的某個地方時？

That's an impossible question to answer given the dynamics of CECL. But you should assume -- we assume that, all else equal, credit quality is going to deteriorate at some pace from here through the next 2 years. I just don't think it's going to be all that dramatic. And it almost has to be a true statement given the charge-off levels that we've been seeing.

鑑於 CECL 的動態，這是一個不可能回答的問題。但你應該假設——我們假設，在其他條件相同的情況下，從現在到未來 2 年，信用質量將以某種速度惡化。我只是不認為它會那麼戲劇化。考慮到我們所看到的沖銷水平，這幾乎必須是一個真實的陳述。

Right. And I would add to that. Our reserve levels are above our day 1 CECL, even adjusted for the BBVA acquisition. We're appropriately reserved now and feel good about it.

正確的。我會補充一點。我們的儲備水平高於我們第 1 天的 CECL，甚至針對 BBVA 收購進行了調整。我們現在得到了適當的保留，對此感覺很好。

And our next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ken Usdin 與 Jefferies 的對話。

Just -- wanted to just ask to dissect a little bit. Rob, you mentioned that your outlook for NII is a little bit better. Your outlook for fees are a little softer. The NII one, I think we get, just wondering if you can help us understand now what kind of curve you're building in. And is it more just that uptick of rates that offsets that new 30% beta outcome?

只是——想要求剖析一下。 Rob，您提到您對 NII 的展望要好一些。您對費用的看法要溫和一些。我想我們得到的 NII 只是想知道您是否可以幫助我們現在了解您正在構建什麼樣的曲線。是否只是利率上升抵消了新的 30% 貝塔結果？

Yes, that's right, Ken. Yes, that's exactly right. So higher rate environment, NII and the balances that we've generated contribute to the improved NII outlook. And then you sort of referenced it in terms of the fees. Mostly in terms of our full year expectations compared to what we thought at the beginning of the year and last quarter, some softer on AMG and mortgage, as you would expect, with the equity markets performing like they are for AMG and interest rates on the mortgage side. So it's sort of the trade-off of the higher rates.

是的，沒錯，肯。是的，完全正確。因此，較高的利率環境、NII 和我們產生的餘額有助於改善 NII 前景。然後你在費用方面引用了它。主要就我們的全年預期而言，與我們在年初和上個季度的預期相比，AMG 和抵押貸款有所放緩，正如你所預料的那樣，股票市場的表現與 AMG 一樣，利率在抵押方面。所以這是更高利率的權衡。

Got it, right. Sorry, I missed your 3.25%, 3.50% comment from earlier. And then just on the fee side then, you had a really good bounce back as you expected, especially in that capital market. So what's your -- what's changed there in terms of what you're seeing as far as the outlook on the fee side?

明白了，對。抱歉，我錯過了您之前 3.25%、3.50% 的評論。然後就在收費方面，正如你所期望的那樣，你有一個非常好的反彈，尤其是在那個資本市場。那麼，就費用方面的前景而言，您所看到的變化是什麼？

So on the fee side, again, for the full year, most of the change relative to our full year expectations is within AMG and mortgage. On capital markets, you recall, we had a soft first quarter relative to our expectations. We did see the bounce back in the second quarter. So we're back in position with our full year expectations and the second half, obviously, remains to be seen.

因此，在費用方面，對於全年而言，與我們全年預期相關的大部分變化都在 AMG 和抵押貸款中。您還記得，在資本市場上，相對於我們的預期，我們的第一季度表現疲軟。我們確實看到了第二季度的反彈。因此，我們回到了全年預期的位置，顯然，下半年還有待觀察。

Okay. And if I could just sneak one more in. You mentioned -- Bill, you mentioned all the different ways that you can get exposure to variable rates and such. I'm just wondering how are you guys thinking about just swaps portfolio. You had done some adds in terms of protecting and managing the near-term upside versus the potential of what happens down the road based on Fed funds futures curve expectations and your general view of the economy.

好的。如果我可以再偷偷溜進去一次。你提到-比爾，你提到了所有不同的方式，你可以接觸到可變利率等。我只是想知道你們是如何考慮掉期投資組合的。您根據聯邦基金期貨曲線預期和您對經濟的總體看法，在保護和管理近期上行空間與未來可能發生的情況方面做了一些補充。

We don't think about the swaps book separate from our basic investing and fixed rate exposure. Where we sit across the securities book and swaps and everything, we do fixed rate. We're looking at a curve now where I kind of think the year-end rates in my own mind are probably largely right, but I think there's a -- I think the assumption that the Fed is going to start easing in the spring of next year is absurd, which means we're holding off at this point because we think there's going to be -- there's still value to be had in the longer end of the curve as people come to the realization that inflation isn't as easy to tame as people might assume.

我們不會將掉期賬簿與我們的基本投資和固定利率敞口分開考慮。我們坐在證券簿和掉期等所有東西上，我們做固定利率。我們現在正在觀察一條曲線，我認為我自己認為的年終利率可能在很大程度上是正確的，但我認為有一個 - 我認為美聯儲將在春季開始寬鬆的假設明年是荒謬的，這意味著我們在這一點上推遲，因為我們認為會有 - 隨著人們意識到通脹並不容易，曲線的較長端仍然有價值像人們想像的那樣馴服。

And separately that the Fed isn't going to immediately cut simply because the economy slows if inflation is still running high. So we're going to sit pat, but it's not -- we don't think swaps are one thing and bonds are another. We just -- we look at our interest rate exposure. We're very asset sensitive. We have an opportunity to deploy in multiple places. We're just not doing it. We basically let everything run down thus far this year.

另外，美聯儲不會僅僅因為如果通脹仍然居高不下，經濟放緩就會立即降息。所以我們會坐以待斃，但事實並非如此——我們不認為掉期是一回事，債券是另一回事。我們只是 - 我們看看我們的利率風險敞口。我們對資產非常敏感。我們有機會在多個地方進行部署。我們只是不這樣做。今年到目前為止，我們基本上讓一切都失敗了。

And our next question comes from the line of Erika Najarian with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

I'm sure this is the question I can ask, but I just wanted to clarify the loan growth expectation rose, the performance has been spectacular, the revenues didn't move even though we had the higher loan growth and the higher rate outlook. And that's because of the higher beta assumed and also lower fees, Rob?

我確定這是我可以問的問題，但我只是想澄清貸款增長預期上升，表現非常出色，即使我們有更高的貸款增長和更高的利率前景，收入也沒有變化。那是因為假設更高的 beta 和更低的費用，Rob？

Well, in part. I think the earlier question you might have missed it, Erika, was the improved outlook for the full year loan growth. The answer was most of that was a true-up to our outperformance in the first half. So we grew loans faster than we thought we would in the first 6 months, which is great. So we true up that full year expectation. So all of that is built in to the full year guidance.

嗯，部分。 Erika，我認為您可能錯過的較早問題是全年貸款增長前景的改善。答案大部分是對我們在上半年的出色表現的真實評價。因此，我們在前 6 個月的貸款增長速度比我們想像的要快，這很棒。因此，我們實現了全年的預期。因此，所有這些都包含在全年指導中。

Erika, part of the impact that we're seeing in NII and NIM is actually on our loan yields, where the quality of our book is it improves fairly substantially. We've put a lot of very high-grade stuff on. And spreads have actually come in quarter-on-quarter. So when we look at the out forecast on NII, together with loan growth, which will be pretty healthy, we have in there -- embedded in there this notion that spreads are tighter than they were as we basically improve the quality of the book.

Erika，我們在 NII 和 NIM 中看到的部分影響實際上是對我們的貸款收益率，我們的賬簿質量大幅提高。我們已經放了很多非常高檔的東西。價差實際上是按季度出現的。因此，當我們查看對 NII 的外部預測以及將非常健康的貸款增長時，我們已經在其中嵌入了這樣一種觀念，即利差比我們基本上提高了賬面質量時更小。

Just another component, that's right.

只是另一個組件，沒錯。

Yes.

是的。

Got it. And just as a follow-up question. How should we think about deposit growth from here? Bill, I think you've been the one that has been vocal about the notion that if loan growth is positive, deposit growth should be positive. How should we weigh that relative to probably your willful desire to work out the nonoperating deposits out of your balance sheet and QT?

知道了。就像一個後續問題一樣。從這裡我們應該如何看待存款增長？比爾，我認為你一直在直言不諱地認為如果貸款增長是正的，存款增長應該是正的。相對於您可能有意從資產負債表和 QT 中計算出非經營性存款，我們應該如何權衡？

Yes. Well, it's a good question, and the answer to that remains to be seen a little bit. We've clearly seen the larger corporates move liquidity out of the banking system into the -- in the money markets -- government money markets. And I think, as we go forward, the combination of QT from the Fed and what they do with their repo facility is going to drive some of the yields available in those funds, which in turn is going to drive how much of that sits on bank's balance sheets or not. Outside of those deposits, it's more about a rate paid game. And I think deposits kind of inside of the retail space and the smaller mid-market commercial space, I think deposits actually grow simply because of the loan volume. But the mix shift that we've seen in commercial from a little bit less noninterest-bearing into interest-bearing, that game is going to play out.

是的。嗯，這是一個很好的問題，答案還有待觀察。我們清楚地看到，大型企業將流動性從銀行系統轉移到貨幣市場——政府貨幣市場。而且我認為，隨著我們向前發展，美聯儲的 QT 和他們對回購工具所做的結合將推動這些基金的一些可用收益率，這反過來又會推動其中的多少銀行的資產負債表與否。除了這些存款之外，它更多的是關於付費遊戲。而且我認為存款在零售空間和較小的中型市場商業空間內，我認為存款實際上只是因為貸款量而增長。但是，我們在商業中看到的混合轉變從少一點不計息到計息，這場遊戲將會上演。

So thus far, I mean, if you look at total liquidity in the system, it really hasn't moved. And of course, the Fed hasn't really started their QT program yet. What we've seen is a movement of liquidity from banks into money funds as money fund yields started to grow. So this is going to take a while to play out.

到目前為止，我的意思是，如果您查看系統中的總流動性，它確實沒有移動。當然，美聯儲還沒有真正開始他們的 QT 計劃。我們所看到的是，隨著貨幣基金收益率開始增長，流動性從銀行轉移到貨幣基金。所以這需要一段時間才能發揮出來。

Yes. And our expectations, Erika, are generally stable, but as Bill pointed, the mix could be different. And an open question on the nonoperational deposits, which we'll either do or not do.

是的。我們的期望，Erika，總體上是穩定的，但正如比爾指出的那樣，組合可能會有所不同。還有一個關於非經營性存款的懸而未決的問題，我們要么做，要么不做。

Yes. A big part of what we've seen go thus far are kind of deposits that we don't really care about. They were -- we kind of call them surge deposits internally, which were noncore clients' parking liquidity that now kind of gone into funds.

是的。到目前為止，我們所看到的很大一部分是我們並不真正關心的存款。他們是——我們在內部稱他們為激增存款，這是非核心客戶的停車流動性，現在進入了基金。

And importantly, are, by definition, low margin.

重要的是，根據定義，利潤率低。

Yes.

是的。

Got it. And my last question, Bill, you said earlier you don't really see any bubbles within the banking system. I think a lot of investors are more concerned about what's outside of the banking system. And interestingly, I'm sure you know this statistic very well. Corporate lending in terms of the bank share of it has declined to 16%. I guess my question to you is, do you see an opportunity as rates rise and the economy slows down, is some of that market share available back to banks in terms of what's happened in the private market? Or was that never credit that you wanted to do anyway? And don't you have a unit within PNC that does third-party recoveries in terms of if you have corporate defaults, you could be a third-party recoverer, if that's the term?

知道了。我的最後一個問題，比爾，你之前說過，你並沒有真正看到銀行系統中有任何泡沫。我認為很多投資者更關心銀行系統之外的東西。有趣的是，我相信你非常了解這個統計數據。以銀行份額計的企業貸款已下降至 16%。我想我的問題是，隨著利率上升和經濟放緩，你是否看到了機會，就私人市場發生的情況而言，部分市場份額是否可以返還給銀行？或者這從來都不是你想做的事情？如果您有公司違約，您是否在 PNC 中有一個部門可以進行第三方追償，如果是這樣的話，您可以成為第三方追償者嗎？

Yes. Well, first, I want to see the audit on only 16% of corporate credit being inside of banks, but I'm sure there's some way you can get the other way.

是的。嗯，首先，我希望看到只有 16% 的企業信貸存在於銀行內部的審計，但我相信你可以通過某種方式獲得其他方式。

All right.

好的。

No, we -- if credit outside of the banking system melts, we play in that in 2 ways. One is, if it's in the real estate space, we do that inside of our special servicing arm in Midland. Two is, we are very good at working corporate credits, and we wouldn't be afraid of buying portfolios of troubled assets. And three, and I think this is what you're referring to is in our asset-based lending group, we play the role of senior lender on a very secured basis for -- and basically the agent for the entire capital structure. And as pieces below us struggle, the fee opportunity for us to work those loans out on behalf of the B lenders is quite high.

不，我們——如果銀行系統外的信貸融化，我們會以兩種方式參與其中。一是，如果是在房地產領域，我們會在米德蘭的特殊服務部門內進行。二是我們非常擅長處理企業信貸，我們不會害怕購買問題資產組合。第三，我認為這就是您所指的在我們基於資產的貸款集團中，我們在非常有保障的基礎上扮演高級貸款人的角色 - 基本上是整個資本結構的代理人。當我們下面的部分掙扎時，我們代表 B 貸方處理這些貸款的費用機會非常高。

Furthermore, we continue to be approached by multiple B lenders to basically run their books as they look at what's coming their way. Thus far, we haven't agreed to do any of that. And were we to do it, I think it'd be quite lucrative.

此外，多家 B 貸方繼續與我們接洽，以在他們了解即將發生的事情時基本上運行他們的賬簿。到目前為止，我們還沒有同意這樣做。如果我們這樣做，我認為這將是非常有利可圖的。

And we've done that in the past.

我們過去已經這樣做了。

Yes.

是的。

And our next question comes from the line of Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自富國證券的 Mike Mayo。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Great. I guess all these questions get down to NIM. So are you forecasting deposits to run off for the year, because you've mentioned betas are starting to move? And I missed the updated guidance because you're guiding for good NII growth. So how much deposit runoff are you assuming in your deposit growth?

好的。偉大的。我想所有這些問題都歸結為 NIM。那麼，您是否預測今年存款會流失，因為您已經提到測試版開始變動？我錯過了更新的指南，因為您正在指導 NII 的良好增長。那麼，您在存款增長中假設有多少存款流失？

I can jump on that, and we covered some of that, Mike. Generally speaking, and we recognize the fluidity. For the second half, we're going for stable deposits, some mix change between noninterest-bearing and interest-bearing. Also an open question in terms of nonoperational deposits and what betas are required for that and whether we choose to keep those or not. So that all remains to be seen. But the outlook is stable. And NIM, we do expect to expand.

邁克，我可以跳上去，我們涵蓋了其中的一些內容。一般來說，我們承認流動性。下半年，我們將尋求穩定的存款，在無息和有息之間進行一些混合變化。在非經營性存款方面也是一個懸而未決的問題，需要什麼貝塔以及我們是否選擇保留這些。所以一切還有待觀察。但前景是穩定的。 NIM，我們確實希望擴大。

And you talked about tighter loan yield spreads just because you're going up in quality. Are you getting rewarded for this more uncertain outlook? I mean capital markets, some assets are pricing at near recession levels, but I feel like the lending markets are not doing the same. And are you getting more spread for the added chance of a recession?

你談到收緊貸款收益率差只是因為你的質量提高了。您是否因這種更加不確定的前景而獲得回報？我的意思是資本市場，一些資產的定價接近衰退水平，但我覺得貸款市場並沒有這樣做。你是否會因為經濟衰退的增加機會而獲得更多的傳播？

It depends on the lending sector. So we are, for example, an asset-based -- straight spreads on high rated stuff has kind of stabilized. A lot of what we're seeing is just a mix shift in the quality of our book, not a change in the market in terms of spread where I think the market continues to be irrational on the consumer side.

這取決於貸款部門。因此，例如，我們是以資產為基礎的——高評級產品的直接利差已經穩定下來。我們看到的很多情況只是我們圖書質量的混合變化，而不是市場價差的變化，我認為市場在消費者方面仍然是非理性的。

So auto lending seems, in our view, to be a little bit of a bubble, and some of the things we're still seeing being done on the consumer side. But on the corporate side and the real estate side, the shift is moving back towards the banks in terms of our ability to negotiate and get spread and get covenants and get structure. Just not a dramatic shift the way you've seen in some of the headline stuff on capital markets related issues.

因此，在我們看來，汽車貸款似乎有點泡沫，而且我們仍然看到消費者方面正在做一些事情。但在企業方面和房地產方面，就我們的談判能力、傳播能力、契約能力和結構能力而言，這種轉變正在轉向銀行。只是不像你在資本市場相關問題的一些頭條新聞中看到的那樣發生了戲劇性的轉變。

So you're getting some of that. Bill, can you put this in context, this looks like the fastest commercial loan growth in 14 years. And we haven't had a cycle like this in quite some time. And I guess, I'm repeating, I think what you've said in the past. It's inventory, it's credit utilization, it's capital expenditures, it's working capital, some business from capital markets back to the banks. Did I miss anything there?

所以你得到了一些。比爾，你能把這個放在上下文中嗎，這看起來是 14 年來最快的商業貸款增長。而且我們已經有很長一段時間沒有這樣的周期了。我想，我在重複一遍，我想你過去說過的話。它是庫存，是信貸利用，是資本支出，是營運資金，從資本市場回到銀行的一些業務。我錯過了什麼嗎？

No. I mean it's -- thank you for reminding. I mean that's what happened, right? We've had inventory build and CapEx and a little volume back to the banks, and boom, you get big loan growth.

不，我的意思是——謝謝你的提醒。我的意思是這就是發生的事情，對吧？我們已經建立了庫存和資本支出，並有少量回饋銀行，並且繁榮，您會獲得大量貸款增長。

Yes, in particular, and it overlaps, Mike, particularly on the utilization, which has grown.

是的，特別是，它重疊，邁克，特別是在利用率方面，它已經增長。

Yes. But that's coming off of their inventory build which...

是的。但這來自他們的庫存構建...

The one I didn't mention that some other banks have mentioned, you did not. So I don't want to leave the witness here, but in terms of gaining share from nonbanks, because you're seeing some nonbank entities not on a solid footing as they were in the past. Are you gaining share from them? Do you expect to gain share from them? Are there opportunities to do so? Are you shifting resources because I get it, you're the national Main Street Bank, you're in 30 MSAs. You have a lot on your plate to try to gain share in all those markets. Meanwhile, you have some verticals where you might be able to gain share. What are you doing to try to capitalize on that?

我沒有提到其他一些銀行提到的那個，你沒有。所以我不想在這裡留下見證，但就從非銀行機構獲得份額而言，因為你看到一些非銀行實體不像過去那樣站穩腳跟。你從他們那裡獲得份額嗎？您希望從他們那裡獲得份額嗎？有機會這樣做嗎？你轉移資源是因為我明白了嗎，你是國家大街銀行，你在 30 個 MSA 中。你有很多事情要做，試圖在所有這些市場中獲得份額。同時，你有一些垂直領域你可能能夠獲得份額。你在做什麼來試圖利用這一點？

Yes. Mike, most of those players play in a risk bucket that we don't like to play in, right? So the exception to that is, in our asset-based lending book, where borrowers who might have been able to do a cash flow loan with a BDC at one point are now going to come back to the banks and do it asset-based. But on the consumer side, the guys who are out there playing subprime consumer or even in the leverage lending side, cash flow unsecured, we just don't have a big book of business there, nor do we want one.

是的。邁克，這些球員中的大多數都在我們不喜歡玩的風險桶中玩，對嗎？因此，例外情況是，在我們的基於資產的貸款簿中，可能曾經能夠通過 BDC 進行現金流貸款的借款人現在將回到銀行並以資產為基礎進行貸款。但在消費者方面，那些玩次貸消費者甚至槓桿借貸方面的人，現金流無擔保，我們只是沒有大量的業務，我們也不想要。

Okay. And last one, just on CECL. You didn't -- I mean, you beat on credit. Your credit is great. You've always been high quality. You proved it through the global financial crisis. We get it. But with all this talk about a recession out there, doesn't that give you cover to go ahead and increase reserves? Like I get it you're above day 1 CECL, but why not just take more reserves out of conservatism?

好的。最後一個，就在 CECL 上。你沒有——我的意思是，你在信用上打敗了。你的信用很好。你一直都是高素質的。你通過全球金融危機證明了這一點。我們懂了。但是，在所有這些關於經濟衰退的討論中，這難道不是讓你有理由繼續前進並增加儲備嗎？就像我知道的那樣，您在第一天 CECL 之上，但為什麼不從保守主義中提取更多儲備呢？

Well, it's -- we have a model, and we run by a model. So we're not allowed to just...

嗯，它是 - 我們有一個模型，我們由一個模型運行。所以我們不能隨便...

That's right.

這是正確的。

As much as I'd like to sometimes put my thumb on the scale, we're not...

儘管我有時想把我的拇指放在秤上，但我們不是......

We don't do that. We don't do that. CECL is a model-driven approach. And as you pointed out, Mike, we're above our day 1. We're appropriately reserved relative to our book.

我們不這樣做。我們不這樣做。 CECL 是一種模型驅動的方法。正如你所指出的，邁克，我們已經完成了第一天的工作。相對於我們的書，我們有適當的保留。

And our next question comes from the line of John Pancari with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自與 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

On the -- back to the commercial loan growth topic. I'm sorry if I missed the detail on it, but I know you mentioned the $5 billion in high-quality, short-term loans that were brought on that you expect to mature in the second half. Can you give a little bit of color on that -- on those balances and what drove it? And maybe a little bit in terms of outlook, could you see additional flows in that type of lending as well?

關於——回到商業貸款增長的話題。如果我錯過了細節，我很抱歉，但我知道你提到了你預計下半年到期的 50 億美元的高質量短期貸款。您能否就此提供一點色彩——關於這些平衡以及驅動它的原因？也許就前景而言，您是否也能看到此類貸款的額外流動？

We'd like to see additional flows in that type of lending.

我們希望看到此類貸款的額外流動。

Right.

正確的。

It's kind of -- that was client -- a handful of clients. But client-specific timing issues that we were able to serve client needs and they're big balances, and they're going to run off.

它有點——那是客戶——少數客戶。但是我們能夠滿足客戶需求的特定於客戶的時間問題，它們是很大的平衡，它們將會消失。

And we'd like to do that, yes.

我們願意這樣做，是的。

That happens again, that's great. But these were specific ones we called out both because of their size and also because there are lower spreads in the rest of the book and that had some impact on the loan yield this quarter.

再次發生這種情況，太好了。但我們之所以提到這些是因為它們的規模，也因為本書其餘部分的利差較低，這對本季度的貸款收益率產生了一些影響。

Okay. And then also related to that, in what areas do you expect that you could see some moderation in commercial loan demand as we do get some slowing in economic activity if the Fed succeeds here with the tightening?

好的。然後還與此相關，如果美聯儲在收緊政策方面取得成功，您預計在哪些領域會看到商業貸款需求有所放緩，因為經濟活動確實會有所放緩？

Eventually, what you're going to see, we've seen utilizations go up as people have built inventories. Now that will reverse itself as we get into a slowdown and people struggle to move inventories. It will peak and then they'll grind it to a halt. But I think that's going to end up being the driver. We'll continue to go work and gain share. And ultimately, against the money we put out, we look at what happens to utilization. And utilizations will start to drop through a slowdown, peak early into it and then slow down as they try to free up working capital.

最終，您將看到，隨著人們建立庫存，我們看到利用率上升。現在，隨著我們進入經濟放緩並且人們難以轉移庫存，這種情況將自行逆轉。它會達到頂峰，然後他們會停下來。但我認為這最終會成為司機。我們將繼續努力並獲得份額。最終，根據我們投入的資金，我們看看利用率會發生什麼。利用率將開始放緩，並在早期達到頂峰，然後隨著他們試圖釋放營運資金而放緩。

Okay. Got it. And then back to the most reserve front. I hear you again in terms of the adequacy of your reserve. In your scenarios -- in your economic scenarios that you run that support CECL, did they get worse at all versus last quarter? Or did they -- like how did that change? And then separately, did you have any reallocations within the reserve that were noteworthy, like coming from commercial going into consumer? Can you maybe talk about that? So just trying to get a better feel of that and your confidence...

好的。知道了。然後回到最後備陣線。我再次聽到你關於你的儲備是否充足的意見。在您的情景中——在您運行的支持 CECL 的經濟情景中，與上一季度相比，它們是否變得更糟？或者他們 - 就像那是如何改變的？然後單獨地，您在儲備中是否有任何值得注意的重新分配，例如來自商業進入消費者？你能談談嗎？所以只是想更好地了解這一點和你的信心......

Without getting into the details of CECL, I would tell you that we -- within our overall provision, we added 2 reserves as a function of the scenarios we run.

在不涉及 CECL 的細節的情況下，我會告訴你，我們 - 在我們的整體供應中，我們根據我們運行的場景添加了 2 個儲備金。

Yes. I mean it's pretty stable, John. So no big mix changes, no big dollar changes. The percentage came down a little bit just because of largely the high credit quality, large underwritings we just spoke about improving the mix. So pretty much unchanged.

是的。我的意思是它很穩定，約翰。所以沒有大的組合變化，沒有大的美元變化。這一百分比略有下降，主要是因為我們剛剛談到改善組合的高信用質量、大量承銷。所以幾乎沒有變化。

Got it, okay. Go ahead.

明白了，好吧。前進。

Well, no, so to clarify that. In terms of the dollar amounts and the stable. But inside of that, obviously, our scenarios built in some worsening concepts. But there's QFRs as part of that process that offset that. So end of the day, it's stable.

好吧，不，所以澄清一下。在美元金額和穩定方面。但在其中，顯然，我們的場景建立在一些惡化的概念中。但是作為該過程的一部分，QFR 可以抵消這一點。所以一天結束，它是穩定的。

And our next question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess just one follow-up, Rob. In terms of as we think about the outlook for deposit betas and margins, if the Fed stops at the end of the year, you talked about the deposit beta and deposit growth expectation in the back half. But give us a sense of the asset sensitivity profile of the balance sheet in a world where the Fed stops hiking, the 210 remains inverted for 6 to 12 months. And as Bill alluded to, we may not get cuts as quickly. In that backdrop, do you still expect the margin to drift higher? Or do we start seeing some liability sensitivity where deposits are repricing higher, but you're not seeing the benefit on the asset side?

我想只有一個後續行動，羅布。就我們對存款貝塔和保證金前景的看法而言，如果美聯儲在年底停止，您談到了下半年的存款貝塔和存款增長預期。但在美聯儲停止加息的世界中，讓我們了解資產負債表的資產敏感性概況，210 將在 6 到 12 個月內保持倒掛。正如比爾所暗示的那樣，我們可能不會很快得到削減。在這種背景下，您是否仍預計利潤率會更高？或者我們是否開始看到一些責任敏感性，即存款重新定價較高，但您沒有看到資產方面的好處？

Yes, yes. We don't give explicit NIM outlook. But I would say your question is when did NIM -- when does NIM peak. We see NIMs continuing to expand and peaking in '23. So with everything that you described, we still see upside in NIM.

是的是的。我們沒有給出明確的 NIM 前景。但我想說你的問題是 NIM 何時出現 - NIM 何時達到峰值。我們看到 NIM 繼續擴大並在 23 年達到頂峰。因此，根據您所描述的一切，我們仍然看到 NIM 有上漲空間。

Got it. So safe to assume that even in a backdrop where the Fed stops hiking, the NIM should still at least drift higher a bit for a few more quarters. So point noted.

知道了。因此可以安全地假設，即使在美聯儲停止加息的背景下，淨息差至少應該還會在接下來的幾個季度中略微走高。所以指出。

Yes, possibly. And again, we're -- in sort of that context, we're talking about '23 then -- 2023.

是的，可能。再一次，我們 - 在那種背景下，我們談論的是'23然後 - 2023年。

'23, yes, yes. And I didn't mean to pin you down or ask for '23 guidance. I'm just trying to conceptually think if we go into this period where we've not been where the curve remains flat to inverted for a while, what that does to the NIM. And it's not unique to you, but I appreciate the color.

'23，是的，是的。而且我並不是要限制你或要求'23 指導。我只是想從概念上思考，如果我們進入這個時期，在一段時間內我們沒有處於曲線保持平坦到倒置的狀態，這對 NIM 有什麼影響。它不是你獨有的，但我很欣賞這種顏色。

That's right. That's right.

這是正確的。這是正確的。

Yes, you have to -- the number of pieces that are moving inside of that, even if let's assume they get out there and they just freeze and you have a small inversion in the curve and you sit there, in that instance, betas probably don't move from wherever they were post the last hike. And instead, what you're going to see is an increase in fixed rate asset yields that basically roll off from very low yields into higher yields. And then the upside to the extent we want to deploy at that point. So you see a gain in yields inside of the security book in a static environment simply because everything that was purchased with 1.5% handles rolls off.

是的，你必須 - 在裡面移動的部分的數量，即使我們假設它們離開那裡並且它們只是凍結並且你在曲線中有一個小的反轉並且你坐在那裡，在那種情況下，可能是貝塔不要從他們上次遠足後的任何地方移動。相反，您將看到的是固定利率資產收益率的增加，這些收益率基本上從非常低的收益率下降到更高的收益率。然後是我們想要在那個時候部署的程度。因此，您可以在靜態環境中看到安全手冊內的收益增加，這僅僅是因為使用 1.5% 句柄購買的所有東西都會滾降。

Yes. That's right. That's why we're still some part -- some ways from the peak.

是的。這是正確的。這就是為什麼我們仍然是一部分——離巔峰還有一段距離。

That's fair. I appreciate the perspective. And on the lending side, just still wanted to follow up on 2 things. One, like do you have a sense of where customers are in terms of rebuilding inventories? Like that's been a big driver of growth for the last 2 to 3 quarters. But compared to pre-pandemic, are customer inventories back to those levels? Like how would you frame that? And secondly, I would love to hear your thoughts about just outlook for the commercial real estate market in this backdrop, especially if we get a recession. You've been cautious in the past, so I would love to hear your thoughts.

這還算公平。我很欣賞這種觀點。在貸款方面，仍然想跟進兩件事。第一，您是否了解客戶在重建庫存方面的位置？在過去的 2 到 3 個季度中，這一直是增長的主要驅動力。但與大流行前相比，客戶庫存是否回到了那些水平？比如你會如何構圖？其次，我很想听聽您對這種背景下商業房地產市場前景的看法，尤其是在經濟衰退的情況下。你過去一直很謹慎，所以我很想听聽你的想法。

Yes, the inventory question is all over the place because you have a bunch of customers who have more inventory than they want. Then you have others who are still struggling to build inventory to keep up with supply because of continued supply chain disruption. So I don't know that there's a simple answer on inventories.

是的，庫存問題無處不在，因為您有一群客戶的庫存比他們想要的多。然後，由於供應鏈持續中斷，其他人仍在努力建立庫存以跟上供應。所以我不知道庫存有一個簡單的答案。

Real estate, with the exception of the slow burn on office, where we just -- we continue to be worried, we continue to see slow deterioration, we think we're really well reserved. But absent that kind of slow burn, the rest of it continues to kind of do okay to improve. And I think that holds even at least on the slowdown that's in the back of my mind. Again, I just don't see some big spike into a really ugly recession. So we have our eye on real estate. We have exposure into the office space that we're reserved against. It's kind of doing what we expected. And beyond that, we're not particularly worried about it.

房地產，除了辦公室的緩慢燃燒，我們只是 - 我們繼續擔心，我們繼續看到緩慢惡化，我們認為我們真的很保守。但是如果沒有那種緩慢的燃燒，其餘的部分仍然可以繼續改進。而且我認為這至少在我腦海中的放緩中仍然成立。再一次，我只是沒有看到真正醜陋的衰退出現大幅飆升。因此，我們將目光投向了房地產。我們已經接觸到我們保留的辦公空間。這有點像我們預期的那樣。除此之外，我們並不特別擔心它。

Yes. And to your point, we're well reserved. And multifamily, which is the biggest component of that, is very strong.

是的。就你的觀點而言，我們保留得很好。多戶家庭是其中最大的組成部分，非常強大。

Got it. And just one quick one. Sorry if I missed it. Did you talk about the pace of buybacks? How we should think about that in the back half of the year?

知道了。只有一個快速的。對不起，如果我錯過了。你談到回購的步伐了嗎？下半年應該怎麼想？

I did in my opening comments. We're going to continue buying back shares roughly at the average rate of what we've been doing the last couple of quarters.

我在開場評論中做到了。我們將繼續以過去幾個季度的平均速度大致回購股票。

Our next question comes from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

As we think about loan loss reserves and, call it, a moderate recession, how high or how much ad do you think you have to do? I think for COVID, it was around $2.5 billion ex the day 1 CECL impact. But obviously, there's been a mix shift, the BBVA deal and a lot of factors. But as you guys run your stress tests, what would cumulative reserve build be for a moderate recession?

當我們考慮貸款損失準備金並稱之為溫和衰退時，您認為您必須做多高或多少廣告？我認為對於 COVID，在 CECL 影響的第 1 天，它約為 25 億美元。但顯然，出現了混合轉變、BBVA 交易和許多因素。但是，當你們進行壓力測試時，對於溫和的衰退，累積儲備會增加多少？

No way to answer that.

沒有辦法回答這個問題。

I was going to say that, but Bill said there was an earlier impossible question. Yes, that one might be number two.

我正要這麼說，但比爾說之前有一個不可能的問題。是的，那個可能是第二個。

But Matt, I mean, remember that reserve build in COVID, right? The scenarios we are running -- I don't remember off the top of my head, but [not getting] employment to 15% or higher GDP. We're not -- this has nothing to do with that, right? We're going to go into a slowdown and we're going to see an increase in reserves at some point, but they're not even going to be related to the thing we saw when COVID hit and led the economy down.

但是，我的意思是，馬特還記得 COVID 中的儲備庫，對吧？我們正在運行的情景——我不記得了，但[沒有得到]就業達到 15% 或更高的 GDP。我們不是——這與那個無關，對吧？我們將進入放緩狀態，我們將在某個時候看到儲備增加，但它們甚至與我們在 COVID 襲擊並導致經濟下滑時看到的情況無關。

[It's not disagreed].

[沒有異議]。

Yes, just in terms of size. So you almost have to take that whole example set and remove it from the framework of how you think about provisions going forward.

是的，就大小而言。因此，您幾乎必須將整個示例集從您如何看待未來條款的框架中刪除。

Right. So it seems like you're implying, and we've heard from some others that it should be a lot less. But I guess we'll see.

正確的。所以看起來你是在暗示，我們從其他人那裡聽說應該少很多。但我想我們會看到的。

No, no, no. I can't, Matt, I mean...

不不不。我不能，馬特，我是說...

Yes, right.

是的，沒錯。

Only if you think about what those forecasts were, right? I mean do you remember, there were unemployment going to...

只有你想想那些預測是什麼，對吧？我的意思是你還記得嗎，失業會...

15% to 20%.

15% 到 20%。

15%, yes. I mean it was -- I don't think there's anybody out there who thinks we have to create the economy by that amount to get inflation under control. That was a -- look, there could be some world event that causes that, but it's not going to be a function of the Fed raising rates and slowing the economy to get inflation under control.

15%，是的。我的意思是——我認為沒有人認為我們必須創造如此多的經濟才能控制通脹。那是——看，可能有一些世界性的事件導致了這種情況，但這不會是美聯儲加息和放緩經濟以控制通脹的作用。

Yes, agreed. I mean obviously, that's what the market is still worried about. And it's just interesting, if you put it relative to capital, even if you did what you did for COVID, it's only 50 basis points of capital. So...

是的，同意了。我的意思很明顯，這就是市場仍然擔心的問題。有趣的是，如果你把它相對於資本來說，即使你做了你為 COVID 所做的事情，也只有 50 個基點的資本。所以...

Matt, look, you're bringing up -- this whole issue is the issue, I think, that investors just have completely wrong about the banking system right now. If you look at the market cap that's been pulled out of the banking system and take your worst case reserve build and charge-offs through some cycle, it's just wildly wrong. Yes, we'll have increased losses, but...

馬特，看，你提出來了——我認為，整個問題就是投資者現在對銀行系統完全錯誤的問題。如果您查看已從銀行系統中撤出的市值，並在最壞的情況下建立儲備並通過某個週期進行沖銷，那將是大錯特錯。是的，我們會增加損失，但是...

Not to that extent.

沒到那個程度。

Not to anything close like what we put in during COVID. And more importantly, I think there's a growth opportunity through a mild downturn for us just given the way we run our business. In the business, it will come back into the banking systems and out of the capital markets. So I am personally confused about all the concern that sits out there on banking reserves and the coming recession and the impacts on the profitability of banks. It will hurt a little bit, but...

不像我們在 COVID 期間所做的那樣接近任何東西。更重要的是，考慮到我們經營業務的方式，我認為在溫和的低迷時期對我們來說是一個增長機會。在業務中，它將重新進入銀行系統並退出資本市場。因此，我個人對銀行準備金和即將到來的衰退以及對銀行盈利能力的影響的所有擔憂感到困惑。會有點痛，但是...

Well, to your point, if it's being extrapolated from COVID scenario...

好吧，就你而言，如果它是從 COVID 場景中推斷出來的......

It's just -- again, that's a data point that needs removed.

這只是 - 再次，這是一個需要刪除的數據點。

Right.

正確的。

And then just the flip side, you've got a little over $8 billion of losses in OCI. Obviously, a lot of that comes back over time, the part that's related to the bond book. Just give us a rule of thumb like how much of that accretes back each year if rates stay here on the kind of the medium, longer term part of the curve?

另一方面，OCI 的損失略高於 80 億美元。顯然，隨著時間的流逝，其中很多都會回來，與債券簿有關的部分。只要給我們一個經驗法則，比如如果利率保持在曲線的中期、長期部分，每年會增加多少？

Well, the held-to-maturity accretes back independent rates at this point. I don't know if you guys...

好吧，在這一點上，持有至到期的利率增加了獨立利率。不知道大家有沒有...

Have we disclosed that, Bryan? It's a couple of hundred million.

我們披露了嗎，布萊恩？這是幾億。

Yes, you can say that, yes.

是的，你可以這麼說，是的。

I mean the way we kind of think about it internally, given how much we moved is we ought to have pulled a par on the held-to-maturity book adding to our capital base at a pace that largely hedges us against further declines in AOCI and the available-for-sale book, depending how much of a spike the rates are versus the rolled out. But we feel pretty good about the mix we have at this point. And obviously, it's not impacting our capital flexibility vis-a-vis the way we look at AOCI inside of regulatory capital.

我的意思是我們內部考慮的方式，考慮到我們的變動幅度，我們應該在持有至到期賬簿上拉平，以在很大程度上對沖AOCI進一步下降的速度增加我們的資本基礎和可供出售的書，這取決於利率與推出的價格相比飆升了多少。但我們對目前的組合感覺非常好。顯然，與我們在監管資本中看待 AOCI 的方式相比，它不會影響我們的資本靈活性。

Yes. And I guess what I was asking is like if we just think over the next few years, right, like all that OCI eventually gets reversed back as the bonds mature, you are saddled with $8 billion of losses like a lot of banks, having a drag. I'm just wondering what's the good rule of thumb, is that $8 billion come back, kind of maybe $1.5 billion, $2 billion a year or something like that?

是的。我想我要問的是，如果我們只是想在接下來的幾年裡，對，就像所有 OCI 最終隨著債券成熟而逆轉一樣，你像很多銀行一樣背負著 80 億美元的損失，拖。我只是想知道什麼是好的經驗法則，是 80 億美元回來，可能是 15 億美元，每年 20 億美元或類似的東西？

I mean, let's say, we've got to take permission from Fed to your point, [7 years] or something.

我的意思是，比方說，我們必須得到美聯儲的許可，才能達到你的觀點，[7 年] 之類的。

Well, the short answer is approximately $200 million a quarter, $1 billion a year. So that's the number you're looking for. But that's the right neighborhood.

嗯，簡短的回答是大約每季度 2 億美元，每年 10 億美元。所以這就是你要找的號碼。但那是正確的社區。

Sorry, that's out of the held-to-maturity.

抱歉，這超出了持有至到期的期限。

Held-to-maturity. Yes, held-to-maturity.

持有至到期。是的，持有至到期。

Yes. We have a separate AOCI loss available for sale.

是的。我們有單獨的 AOCI 損失可供出售。

Which is dependent on rate.

這取決於速率。

In our market.

在我們的市場。

Right.

正確的。

(Operator Instructions) And our next question comes from the line of Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Just one follow-up on that, on the AFS book. I guess the underlying question is, is the duration roughly the same as the HTM book? I get that rates will move that mark around, but let's say, rates never change. Is it the same duration as HTM?

只是在 AFS 書上的一個後續行動。我想潛在的問題是，持續時間與 HTM 書大致相同嗎？我知道費率會移動那個標記，但可以說，費率永遠不會改變。它的持續時間與 HTM 相同嗎？

Yes, roughly. Yes, roughly.

是的，大致上。是的，大致上。

Yes, yes, yes. Okay. And then just separately, I know there's a lot of questions earlier about deposits, et cetera. And I'm just wondering, your loan-to-deposit ratio, I think, today is around 70%, maybe 71%. And in 4Q '19, it was at 83%. So there's lots of room there in the LDR. I'm wondering how you think about it. Is -- are you happy to go back to 83% in the near term? Or is there a trajectory or a pace that you're comfortable with?

對對對。好的。然後單獨地，我知道之前有很多關於存款等的問題。我只是想知道，你的貸存比，我認為，今天大約是 70%，也許是 71%。而在 19 年第四季度，這一比例為 83%。所以LDR有很多空間。我想知道你是怎麼想的。是——你很高興在短期內回到 83% 嗎？或者有沒有讓你感到舒服的軌跡或速度？

Look, if it's high quality, we'd love to go back to 83%. If it's in our risk box and coupled with client relationships where we have really strong cross-sell, that would be a great outcome.

看，如果它是高質量的，我們很樂意回到 83%。如果它在我們的風險範圍內，並且與我們擁有非常強大的交叉銷售的客戶關係相結合，那將是一個很好的結果。

Well, that also relates to the deposit pricing and what we choose to do. So yes, you're right. We have room and flexibility there as we go through these increased betas and growing loan environment.

嗯，這也與存款定價和我們選擇做什麼有關。所以，是的，你是對的。當我們經歷這些增加的測試版和不斷增長的貸款環境時，我們在那裡有空間和靈活性。

Right. So part of the question is just trying to get a sense as to the pace of LDR increase. You kind of control with the deposit pricing.

正確的。所以問題的一部分只是試圖了解 LDR 的增長速度。您可以控制存款定價。

Right.

正確的。

So you could let a lot more run off, are you starting to...

所以你可以讓更多的人跑掉，你開始...

Yes. Yes, that's my point. That's the flexibility so we can and we can view these deposits in terms of whether we want to take that...

是的。是的，這就是我的觀點。這就是我們可以的靈活性，我們可以根據我們是否要接受這些存款來查看這些存款......

Yes. I don't think. I mean look, our intention here is to keep deposits and grow deposits if we can without having to be aggressive on rate. It's very simple. And inside of that, we'd like to grow loans. And if we manage to do the 2 things there and grow loan to deposits to 83%, we'll be making a boatload of money given the fee mix we get when we grow loans.

是的。我不認為。我的意思是看，我們在這裡的目的是盡可能保留存款並增加存款，而不必在利率上過於激進。這很簡單。在其中，我們希望增加貸款。如果我們設法在那裡做兩件事並將貸款與存款的比例提高到 83%，考慮到我們增加貸款時獲得的費用組合，我們將賺到一大筆錢。

That's a good position.

這是一個很好的位置。

That would be a great thing to be able to do, and we are going to work on it.

這將是一件很棒的事情，我們將繼續努力。

Yes. Well, I mean, I guess part of the question is you don't have to be more competitive on deposit rate right now. You can wait a few more quarters and then move.

是的。好吧，我的意思是，我想問題的一部分是你現在不必在存款利率上更具競爭力。你可以再等幾個季度然後搬家。

Yes. That's what I said.

是的。這就是我所說的。

Yes.

是的。

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自富國證券的 Mike Mayo。

I wanted to follow up just because, Bill, you're just -- you seem so adamant that the market cap that's been taken out of your stock far exceeds credit loss hits that you have in a scenario. So a personal question. You've owned a lot of stock for a long time. You have a lot of skin in the game. At what point would you put more skin in the game and buy some shares? We haven't seen that, I think, by any bank CEO. And if you think this causing dislocation and you think it's so unlikely to have some kind of deep recession, global financial crisis, pandemic sort of situation, have you thought about that? I mean would you do that?

我想跟進只是因為，比爾，你只是 - 你似乎如此堅定，從你的股票中扣除的市值遠遠超過你在某種情況下的信用損失。所以個人問題。你已經擁有很多股票很長時間了。你在遊戲中有很多皮膚。在什麼時候你會在遊戲中投入更多的皮膚併購買一些股票？我認為，我們還沒有看到任何銀行首席執行官這樣做過。如果你認為這會導致混亂，並且你認為它不太可能出現某種深度衰退、全球金融危機、大流行之類的情況，你有沒有想過？我的意思是你會那樣做嗎？

I think about it all the time. I don't want to go into details on my own financial situation, but it's -- I see a lot of value there. It's interesting. We've had a bunch of senior execs actually enroll in our employee stock purchase plan.

我一直在想。我不想詳細說明我自己的財務狀況，但我認為這很有價值。這真有趣。我們有很多高級管理人員實際上參加了我們的員工股票購買計劃。

That's right.

這是正確的。

Which maybe is a simple way for me to get a few shares here and there. But look, I think there's a lot of value. I don't know that you're going to see me make a giant purchase because, as you said, I own a lot of stock, and it's most of my net worth.

這可能是我在這里和那裡獲得一些股份的簡單方法。但是看，我認為有很多價值。我不知道你會看到我進行巨額購買，因為正如你所說，我擁有很多股票，這是我的大部分淨資產。

Just an extra tone from the top, but I guess you said it on the call. Just one more time on that question. Again, you have this disconnect between pricing the capital markets with some other areas and your own expectations. So what you were saying before is that the power or the control has gone back to the banks from the borrower in terms of terms and structure, maybe not the same degree of pricing though. And I'm just -- it's that pricing element that -- it's tough for you or anyone to really know how much you should be pricing these loans if you think we might be going into a recession. So how do you get to that level?

只是頂部的一個額外的音調，但我猜你是在通話中說的。在這個問題上再講一次。同樣，您在資本市場與其他一些領域的定價與您自己的期望之間存在這種脫節。所以你之前說的是，在條款和結構方面，權力或控制權已經從借款人手中回到了銀行，儘管定價程度可能不同。而且我只是 - 這是定價因素 - 如果你認為我們可能會陷入衰退，你或任何人都很難真正知道你應該為這些貸款定價多少。那麼如何達到這個水平呢？

Look, it's -- I mean pricing ultimately is market-driven. And it's -- I would expect, for a given credit quality, we're going to see small backup. Of course, pricing is also based on a grid. So as we go into a slower economy and people run another turn of leverage given their performance, we'll see jumps in spreads that's built into the existing contract because spreads are performance based on a lot of the loans that we do. So I -- we'll get there.

看，它 - 我的意思是定價最終是由市場驅動的。這是 - 我希望，對於給定的信用質量，我們將看到小額備份。當然，定價也是基於網格的。因此，當我們進入一個放緩的經濟並且人們根據他們的表現進行另一輪槓桿操作時，我們將看到現有合約中內置的利差跳躍，因為利差是基於我們所做的大量貸款的表現。所以我 - 我們會到達那裡。

More important to us, Mike, is the cross-sell that we ultimately get. At the end loan prices -- as long as we get good structure, pricing is important. But pricing along with the majority of the TM relationship in capital markets business really ups the return that you get from that client relationship.

邁克，對我們來說更重要的是我們最終獲得的交叉銷售。最終貸款價格——只要我們得到良好的結構，定價就很重要。但是，定價以及資本市場業務中大部分 TM 關係確實提高了您從該客戶關係中獲得的回報。

Okay. And then...

好的。接著...

There's a structure component. There's a lot of good companies out there that don't have structures that we would lend into that they could change that.

有一個結構組件。有很多優秀的公司沒有我們可以藉給他們可以改變的結構。

And then I guess one more. Just in terms of your 30 MSAs, your newer markets, your BBVA markets, do you have any metrics on what market share you have there versus your legacy franchise? Because that would size the opportunity.

然後我猜還有一個。僅就您的 30 個 MSA、您的新市場、您的 BBVA 市場而言，您是否有任何衡量標準來衡量您在該市場的市場份額與您的舊特許經營權相比？因為這將確定機會的大小。

It's small. Big opportunity. Opportunity is big.

它很小。大機會。機會很大。

Yes, yes. Big opportunity. Still big. We don't need to worry about that right now. We just need to do more.

是的是的。大機會。還是很大的。我們現在不需要擔心這個。我們只需要做更多。

There are no further questions.

沒有進一步的問題。

Thanks, everybody.

謝謝大家。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you. That does conclude the call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you disconnect your lines. Have a great day.

謝謝你。這確實結束了今天的呼籲。我們感謝您的參與，並要求您斷開線路。祝你有美好的一天。