PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to the PNC Financial Services Group second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加 PNC 金融服務集團 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Bryan Gill.

現在我很高興向大家介紹你們的主持人布萊恩吉爾。

Thank you, Bryan.

謝謝你，布萊恩。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Well, good morning and welcome to today's conference call for the PNC Financial Services Group.

早安，歡迎參加今天的 PNC 金融服務集團電話會議。

I am Bryan Gill, the Director of Investor Relations for PNC, and participating on this call are PNC's Chairman and CEO, Bill Demchak; and Rob Reilly, Executive Vice President and CFO.

我是 PNC 投資者關係總監 Bryan Gill，參加本次電話會議的有 PNC 董事長兼執行長 Bill Demchak；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Rob Reilly。

Today's presentation contains forward-looking information.

今天的演示包含前瞻性資訊。

Cautionary statements about this information as well as reconciliations with non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release materials as well as our SEC filings and other investor materials.

有關此資訊的警示性聲明以及與非公認會計準則衡量標準的對帳均包含在今天的收益發布資料以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件和其他投資者資料中。

These are all available on our corporate website, pnc.com, under Investor Relations.

這些都可以在我們公司網站 pnc.com 的「投資者關係」下找到。

These statements speak only as of July 16, 2024, and PNC undertakes no obligation to update them.

這些聲明僅截至 2024 年 7 月 16 日，PNC 不承擔更新義務。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bill.

現在我想把電話轉給比爾。

Thank you, Bryan, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝布萊恩，大家早安。

As you've seen, we had a strong second quarter, and we generated $1.5 billion in net income or $3.39 diluted earnings per share.

正如您所看到的，我們在第二季度表現強勁，淨利潤為 15 億美元，攤薄後每股收益為 3.39 美元。

Our results included a gain on a portion of our Visa Class B shares which was substantially offset by other items in the quarter including a securities repositioning.

我們的業績包括部分 Visa B 類股票的收益，該股票被本季其他項目（包括證券重新定位）所抵銷。

Rob is going to provide more details on that Visa gain, financial results, and outlook in a second, but I'll highlight a few items.

Rob 稍後將提供有關 Visa 收益、財務業績和前景的更多詳細信息，但我將重點介紹一些項目。

First off, net interest income has moved past this trough and both NII and NIM grew in the quarter.

首先，淨利息收入已突破這一低谷，NII 和 NIM 在本季均有所成長。

And by the way, this would have occurred independent of the $10 million impact that we got from the securities repositioning.

順便說一句，這與我們從證券重新定位中獲得的 1000 萬美元的影響無關。

Importantly, we are on a growth trajectory towards expected record NII in 2025.

重要的是，我們正處於成長軌道上，預計 2025 年 NII 將創歷史新高。

We continue to add new customers and see strong business momentum across our franchise, particularly in the new and expansion markets.

我們不斷增加新客戶，並在我們的特許經營中看到強勁的業務勢頭，特別是在新市場和擴張市場。

DDA growth accelerated in our branches, and we continue to add new corporate and commercial banking clients above historical rates.

我們的分行的 DDA 成長加速，我們繼續以高於歷史水準的速度增加新的企業和商業銀行客戶。

In our retail business, we launched our first new credit card in several years, PNC Cash Unlimited, a highly competitive card that offers 2% back on all purchases.

在我們的零售業務中，我們推出了幾年來第一張新信用卡 PNC Cash Unlimited，這是一張極具競爭力的卡，所有購買均可享受 2% 的回饋。

We plan to launch several new cards in the months and year ahead.

我們計劃在未來幾個月和一年內推出幾張新卡。

Average deposits held relatively flat to the first-quarter levels, a little bit ahead of our expectations.

平均存款與第一季水準相對持平，略高於我們的預期。

And our expenses remained well controlled, and we generated positive operating leverage during the second quarter.

我們的費用仍然受到良好控制，並且我們在第二季度產生了積極的營運槓桿。

Rob is going to touch on this in a minute, but we have increased our continuous improvement program target for 2024 as expense discipline remains a top priority.

Rob 稍後會談到這一點，但我們提高了 2024 年的持續改善計畫目標，因為費用紀律仍然是重中之重。

The credit environment continues to play out as we have expected, including an increase in charge-offs within the CRE office portfolio where we remain adequately reserved.

信貸環境持續按照我們的預期發展，包括商業房地產辦公室投資組合中的沖銷增加，而我們仍保留充足的儲備。

Outside of CRE office, credit quality remains relatively stable.

在華創辦公室之外，信貸品質保持相對穩定。

Finally, we further strengthened our capital levels during the quarter.

最後，我們在本季進一步加強了我們的資本水準。

Our strong balance sheet allows us to continue supporting our customers and communities, investing in our business and people and delivering returns for shareholders.

我們強大的資產負債表使我們能夠繼續支持我們的客戶和社區，投資我們的業務和人員，並為股東帶來回報。

Our financial strength and stability are also reflected in the latest results from the Fed's stress tests in which we maintained our stress capital buffer at the regulatory minimum of 2.5%.

我們的財務實力和穩定性也反映在聯準會壓力測試的最新結果中，我們將壓力資本緩衝維持在 2.5% 的監管最低水準。

And importantly, for the second year in a row, PNC has had the lowest start-to-trough capital depletion in our peer group, further demonstrating our best-in-class resiliency.

重要的是，PNC 連續第二年在同業中擁有最低的啟動至谷底資本損耗，進一步證明了我們一流的彈性。

With this in mind, our Board recently approved an increase in our quarterly stock dividend by $0.05. In summary, we delivered strong results in the second quarter and are well positioned to drive further growth and expansion into 2025 and beyond.

考慮到這一點，我們的董事會最近批准將季度股票股利增加 0.05 美元。總之，我們在第二季取得了強勁的業績，並處於有利地位，可以推動 2025 年及以後的進一步成長和擴張。

Before I turn it over to Rob, as always, I just want to thank our employees for everything they do for our company and our customers.

在我將其交給 Rob 之前，一如既往，我只想感謝我們的員工為我們公司和客戶所做的一切。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Rob to take you through the quarter.

接下來，我將把它交給 Rob，讓他帶您了解這個季度的情況。

Rob?

搶？

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝比爾，大家早安。

Our balance sheet is on slide 4 and is presented on an average linked quarter basis.

我們的資產負債表在投影片 4 上，以平均關聯季度為基礎呈現。

Loans to $320 billion were stable.

3200 億美元的貸款保持穩定。

Investment securities increased $6 billion or 4%, and our cash balances at the Federal Reserve are $41 billion, a decrease of $7 billion or 15%, primarily reflecting the deployment of cash into higher-yielding securities.

投資證券增加了 60 億美元，即 4%，我們在聯準會的現金餘額為 410 億美元，減少了 70 億美元，即 15%，主要反映了現金配置到高收益證券。

Deposit balances averaged $417 billion, a decline of $3 billion or less than 1% due to a seasonal decline in corporate balances.

由於企業餘額季節性下降，存款餘額平均為 4,170 億美元，減少了 30 億美元或不到 1%。

Borrowed funds increased $2 billion or 2% and were 15% of total liabilities.

借入資金增加了 20 億美元，即 2%，佔總負債的 15%。

At quarter end, AOCI was negative $7.4 billion and improved $600 million compared with March 31.

截至季末，AOCI 為負 74 億美元，與 3 月 31 日相比增加了 6 億美元。

Our tangible book value increased $89.12 per common share, a 4% increase linked quarter and a 15% increase compared to the same period a year ago.

我們的有形帳面價值每股普通股增加 89.12 美元，較上季成長 4%，與去年同期相比成長 15%。

We remain well capitalized, and our estimated CET1 ratio increased to 10.2% as of June 30.

我們的資本充足，截至 6 月 30 日，我們預期 CET1 比率將增加至 10.2%。

Regarding the Basel III Endgame, we expect the inclusion of AOCI in the final rule.

關於巴塞爾協議III殘局，我們預計AOCI將被納入最終規則中。

And our CET1 ratio with the impact of AOCI would be 8.7%.

受 AOCI 影響，我們的 CET1 比率將為 8.7%。

And while we recognize the likelihood of changes to certain other aspects of the Basel III Endgame NPR, under the currently proposed capital rules, our estimated fully phased and expanded risk-based CET1 ratio would be approximately 8.4%.

雖然我們認識到《巴塞爾協議 III 終局之戰》NPR 的某些其他方面可能發生變化，但根據目前擬議的資本規則，我們估計完全分階段和擴大的基於風險的 CET1 比率約為 8.4%。

We continue to be well positioned with capital flexibility.

我們在資本彈性方面繼續處於有利地位。

We returned roughly $700 million of capital to shareholders during the quarter, which included $600 million in common dividends and $100 million of share repurchases.

本季我們向股東返還了約 7 億美元的資本，其中包括 6 億美元的普通股息和 1 億美元的股票回購。

And as Bill just mentioned, our Board recently approved a $0.05 increase to our quarterly cash dividend on common stock, raising the dividend to $1.60 per share.

正如比爾剛才提到的，我們的董事會最近批准將普通股季度現金股息增加 0.05 美元，將股息提高至每股 1.60 美元。

Our recent CCAR results underscore the strength of our balance sheet, and as previously announced, our current stress capital buffer remains at the regulatory minimum of 2.5% for the fourth-quarter period beginning in October 2024.

我們最近的 CCAR 結果強調了我們資產負債表的實力，正如先前宣布的那樣，我們目前的壓力資本緩衝在 2024 年 10 月開始的第四季度仍保持在 2.5% 的監管最低水平。

Slide 5 shows our loans in more detail.

幻燈片 5 更詳細地展示了我們的貸款。

Compared to the first quarter, average loan balances were stable.

與第一季相比，平均貸款餘額保持穩定。

Commercial loans were essentially flat as utilization remains well below, both the pre-pandemic historical average of roughly 55% and the second quarter 2023 level of 52.5%.

商業貸款基本上持平，因為利用率仍遠低於疫情前約 55% 的歷史平均值和 2023 年第二季 52.5% 的水平。

Importantly, we continue to grow customer relationships, and C&IB loan commitments increased during the second quarter.

重要的是，我們繼續發展客戶關係，第二季 C&IB 貸款承諾增加。

Although the direction of the near-term economy remains uncertain, CapEx to sales levels and inventory growth rates remain below historical averages, both of which are typically leading indicators of eventual commercial loan growth.

儘管短期經濟方向仍不確定，但銷售水平的資本支出和庫存成長率仍低於歷史平均水平，這兩者通常是最終商業貸款成長的領先指標。

Average consumer loans declined approximately $600 million or less than 1%, driven by lower residential real estate and home equity loan balances.

由於住宅房地產和房屋淨值貸款餘額下降，平均消費貸款下降了約 6 億美元或不到 1%。

And the yield on total loans increased four basis points to 6.05% in the second quarter.

第二季總貸款收益率上升四個基點至 6.05%。

Slide 6 details our investment, security, and swap portfolios.

投影片 6 詳細介紹了我們的投資、證券和掉期投資組合。

Average investment securities of $141 billion increased $6 billion or 4%, reflecting the deployment of excess liquidity into higher yielding securities, primarily US treasuries.

平均投資證券為 1,410 億美元，增加了 60 億美元，即 4%，反映出過剩流動性被配置到收益較高的證券（主要是美國國債）中。

The securities portfolio yield increased 22 basis points to 2.84%, driven by higher rates on new purchases.

受新購買利率上升的推動，證券投資組合收益率上升 22 個基點至 2.84%。

As of June 30, the securities portfolio duration was 3.5 years.

截至6月30日，證券投資組合久期為3.5年。

During the second quarter, our forward starting swaps increased to $18 billion.

第二季度，我們的遠期起始互換增加至 180 億美元。

With the addition of these swaps, we've locked in a portion of our fixed rate asset repricing through 2025 at a level that is approximately 300 basis points higher than maturities.

透過增加這些掉期，我們將 2025 年的部分固定利率資產重新定價鎖定在比到期日高出約 300 個基點的水平。

The total weighted average received fixed rate of our swap portfolio including the forward starters, increased 83 basis points to 3.13%, and the duration of the portfolio is 2.2 years.

包括遠期啟動在內的掉期投資組合的總加權平均固定利率增加了83個基點至3.13%，投資組合的久期為2.2年。

Slide 7 highlights the securities repositioning we executed during the second quarter.

投影片 7 重點介紹了我們在第二季執行的證券重新定位。

We sold securities with the book value of $4.3 billion and a market value of $3.8 billion.

我們出售的證券帳面價值為 43 億美元，市值為 38 億美元。

We recognized a $497 million loss on the sale and reinvested the $3.8 billion of proceeds into securities with yields approximately 400 basis points higher than the securities sold.

我們確認了 4.97 億美元的出售損失，並將 38 億美元的收益重新投資於收益率比所售證券高出約 400 個基點的證券。

The repositioning is expected to benefit our net interest income by $80 million in 2024, with roughly $10 million of that being realized in the second quarter, and the estimated earn-back period for this transaction is less than four years.

此次重新定位預計將在 2024 年使我們的淨利息收入增加 8,000 萬美元，其中約 1,000 萬美元將在第二季實現，且本次交易的預計獲利回收期不到四年。

Turning to slide 8.

轉到投影片 8。

We expect considerable runoff of low-yielding securities and swaps through the end of 2026, which will allow us to continue to reinvest into higher yielding assets, providing a meaningful benefit to net interest income.

我們預計到 2026 年底，低收益證券和掉期交易將大量流出，這將使我們能夠繼續再投資於更高收益的資產，從而為淨利息收入帶來有意義的好處。

Accumulated other comprehensive income improved to negative $7.4 billion on June 30 compared to negative $8 billion on March 31.

6 月 30 日，累計其他綜合收益從 3 月 31 日的負 80 億美元改善至負 74 億美元。

The improvement was primarily due to the securities repositioning.

這一改善主要是由於證券重新定位。

AOCI will continue to accrete back as our securities and swaps mature, resulting in further growth to tangible book value.

隨著我們的證券和互換的成熟，AOCI 將繼續增值，從而導致有形帳面價值進一步增長。

Slide 9 covers our deposits in more detail.

幻燈片 9 更詳細地介紹了我們的存款。

Average deposits declined $3 billion or 1%, reflecting seasonally lower corporate balances.

平均存款下降 30 億美元或 1%，反映企業餘額季節性下降。

Regarding mix, consolidated non-interest bearing deposits were 23% of total deposits in the second quarter, down less than 1 percentage point from the first quarter.

從結構來看，第二季綜合無利息存款佔存款總額的23%，較一季下降不到1個百分點。

Additionally, average non-interest bearing deposits had the smallest dollar decline in the second quarter of 2024 since the Fed began raising rates in 2022, which gives us confidence that the non-interest bearing portion of our deposits has largely stabilized.

此外，自聯準會於 2022 年開始升息以來，2024 年第二季平均無息存款美元跌幅最小，這讓我們相信我們存款的無息部分已基本穩定。

And our rate paid on interest-bearing deposits increased by only 1 basis point during the second quarter to 2.61%.

第二季我們的計息存款利率僅上升1個基點至2.61%。

We believe our rate paid on deposits is approaching its peak level, but we do expect some potential drift higher as interest rates remain elevated.

我們相信我們的存款利率正在接近其峰值水平，但我們確實預計，隨著利率保持在高位，可能會出現一些走高的情況。

Turning to the income statement, and as Bill mentioned, there were several significant items in the quarter, and I want to provide a bit more detail.

談到損益表，正如比爾所提到的，本季有幾個重要項目，我想提供更多細節。

Taken together, these significant items have a minimal impact to our earnings per share, totaling to a net EPS benefit of $0.09. As we previously disclosed, we participated in the Visa exchange program, allowing us to monetize 50% of our Visa Class B-1 shares and convert our remaining holdings to 1.8 million Visa Class B-2 shares.

總而言之，這些重要項目對我們的每股盈餘影響很小，淨每股盈餘總計為 0.09 美元。正如我們先前所揭露的，我們參與了 Visa 交換計劃，使我們能夠將 50% 的 Visa B-1 類股票貨幣化，並將剩餘持股轉換為 180 萬股 Visa B-2 類股票。

Through the exchange, we recognized a $754 million pretax gain.

透過這次交換，我們確認了 7.54 億美元的稅前收益。

In addition, we had significant items that occurred in the second quarter that largely offset the gain, and they are as follows.

此外，我們還有第二季度發生的重大項目在很大程度上抵消了收益，具體如下。

First, as I mentioned earlier, we repositioned a portion of our securities portfolio and through the sale of certain low-yielding securities recognized a $497 million loss.

首先，正如我之前提到的，我們重新配置了部分證券投資組合，並透過出售某些低收益證券確認了 4.97 億美元的損失。

Second, we recorded a negative $116 million Visa derivative fair value adjustment associated with Visa Class B-2 shares, primarily related to the extension of anticipated litigation resolution.

其次，我們記錄了與 Visa B-2 類股票相關的 1.16 億美元的 Visa 衍生品公允價值調整為負值，這主要與預期訴訟解決方案的延長有關。

And lastly, we recognized $120 million PNC Foundation contribution expense.

最後，我們確認了 1.2 億美元的 PNC 基金會捐款費用。

The foundation supports our communities in early childhood education.

基金會支持我們社區的幼兒教育。

Turning to slide 11, we highlight our income statement trends.

轉向投影片 11，我們重點介紹了損益表趨勢。

Second-quarter net income was $1.5 billion or $3.39 per share.

第二季淨利為 15 億美元，即每股 3.39 美元。

Total revenue of $5.4 billion increased $266 million or 5% compared to the first quarter of 2024.

總收入為 54 億美元，與 2024 年第一季相比增加了 2.66 億美元，即 5%。

Net interest income grew by $38 million or 1% in the second quarter.

第二季淨利息收入成長 3,800 萬美元，即 1%。

Notably, this is the first time NII has increased in six quarters, marking the beginning of an expected upward trajectory.

值得注意的是，這是 NII 六個季度以來首次增長，標誌著預期上升軌蹟的開始。

And our net interest margin was 2.6%, an increase of 3 basis points.

淨利差為2.6%，上升3個基點。

Noninterest income increased $228 million or 12% and included $141 million of the significant items I previously detailed.

非利息收入增加了 2.28 億美元，即 12%，其中包括我之前詳述的 1.41 億美元的重要項目。

Noninterest expense of $3.4 billion increased $23 million or 1% and included $120 million foundation contribution expense.

非利息支出為 34 億美元，增加了 2,300 萬美元，即 1%，其中包括 1.2 億美元的基金會捐款支出。

Notably, we generated positive operating leverage in both the linked quarter and year-over-year comparison.

值得注意的是，我們在相關季度和同比比較中都產生了積極的營運槓桿。

Provision was $235 million in the second quarter reflecting portfolio activity, and our effective tax rate was 18.8%.

第二季撥備金額為 2.35 億美元，反映了投資組合活動，我們的有效稅率為 18.8%。

Turning to slide 12, we highlight our revenue trends.

轉向投影片 12，我們重點介紹了我們的收入趨勢。

Second-quarter revenue was up $266 million or 5%, driven by higher noninterest income and net interest income.

由於非利息收入和淨利息收入增加，第二季營收成長 2.66 億美元，即 5%。

Net interest income of $3.3 billion increased $38 million or 1%, driven by higher yields on interest-earning assets.

由於生息資產收益率上升，淨利息收入增加了 3,800 萬美元，即 33 億美元，即 1%。

Fee income was $1.8 billion and increased $31 million or 2% linked quarter.

費用收入為 18 億美元，季增 3,100 萬美元，即 2%。

Looking at the detail, asset management and brokerage noninterest income was stable linked quarter and, as a benefit of higher average equity markets, was offset by lower annuity sales due to elevated first-quarter activity.

從細節來看，資產管理和經紀非利息收入環比穩定，並且由於平均股市較高，但被第一季活動增加導致年金銷售下降所抵消。

Capital markets and advisory fees increased $13 million or 5%, driven by higher M&A advisory activity and loan syndications, partially offset by lower underwriting fees.

由於併購諮詢活動和銀團貸款增加，資本市場和諮詢費用增加了 1,300 萬美元，即 5%，但部分被承銷費用下降所抵消。

Card and cash management increased $35 million or 5%, reflecting seasonally higher consumer transaction volumes and higher treasury management fees.

卡片和現金管理增加了 3,500 萬美元，即 5%，反映出季節性消費者交易量的增加和財務管理費的增加。

Mortgage revenue declined $16 million or 11%, primarily due to lower residential mortgage activity.

抵押貸款收入下降 1600 萬美元，即 11%，主要是由於住宅抵押貸款活動減少。

Other noninterest income of $332 million increased $197 million and included $141 million related to this quarter's significant items.

其他非利息收入為 3.32 億美元，增加了 1.97 億美元，其中包括與本季重要項目相關的 1.41 億美元。

Turning to slide 13, our noninterest expense of $3.4 billion was well controlled, increasing by only $23 million or 1%.

轉向幻燈片 13，我們 34 億美元的非利息支出得到了很好的控制，僅增加了 2300 萬美元或 1%。

Expenses for the second quarter included $120 million contribution to the PNC Foundation while the first quarter of 2024 included $130 million FDIC special assessment.

第二季的費用包括向 PNC 基金會捐款 1.2 億美元，而 2024 年第一季的費用包括 1.3 億美元的 FDIC 特別評估。

Importantly, noninterest expense excluding the foundation contribution declined $135 million or 4% compared with the second quarter of 2023.

重要的是，與 2023 年第二季相比，不包括基金會捐款的非利息支出減少了 1.35 億美元，即 4%。

Notably, personnel declined as a result of the workforce reduction actions we took last year.

值得注意的是，由於我們去年採取的裁員行動，人員數量減少。

As Bill mentioned, we remain diligent in our continuous improvement efforts.

正如比爾所提到的，我們仍然努力不斷改進。

At the beginning of the year, we had a continuous improvement program goal of $425 million.

今年年初，我們的持續改善計畫目標為 4.25 億美元。

Recently, we have identified initiatives that support increasing our CIP by an additional $25 million, raising our full-year target to $450 million.

最近，我們確定了支持將 CIP 額外增加 2500 萬美元的舉措，將我們的全年目標提高到 4.5 億美元。

As you know, this program funds a significant portion of our ongoing business and technology investments.

如您所知，該計劃為我們正在進行的業務和技術投資提供了很大一部分資金。

Our credit metrics are presented on slide 14.

我們的信用指標如投影片 14 所示。

Nonperforming loans increased $123 million or 5% linked quarter primarily driven by an individual secured loan within our asset-based lending business.

不良貸款增加了 1.23 億美元，環比增加了 5%，這主要是由我們基於資產的貸款業務中的個人擔保貸款推動的。

Total delinquencies of $1.3 billion were stable with March 31.

截至 3 月 31 日，拖欠總額穩定在 13 億美元。

Net loan charge-offs were $262 million in the second quarter and included $106 million of net charge-offs related to our CRE office portfolio.

第二季的貸款淨沖銷額為 2.62 億美元，其中包括與我們的 CRE 辦公室投資組合相關的 1.06 億美元的淨沖銷額。

And our annualized net charge-offs to average loans ratio was 33 basis points.

我們的年化淨沖銷與平均貸款比率為 33 個基點。

Our allowance for credit losses totaled $5.4 billion or 1.7% of total loans on June 30, stable with March 31.

6 月 30 日，我們的信貸損失準備金總額為 54 億美元，佔貸款總額的 1.7%，與 3 月 31 日持平。

Slide 15 provides more detail on our CRE office credit metrics.

投影片 15 提供了有關我們的商業房地產辦公室信用指標的更多詳細資訊。

CRE office NPLs were stable in the second quarter as charge-offs and paydowns offset inflows to nonperforming loans, and the migration of criticized loans to nonperforming status is an expected outcome as we work to resolve challenges inherent to this portfolio.

第二季商業地產辦公室不良貸款保持穩定，因為沖銷和還款抵消了不良貸款的流入，並且在我們努力解決該投資組合固有的挑戰時，受批評的貸款轉為不良狀態是預期結果。

As expected, net loan charge-offs within the CRE office portfolio increased and totaled $106 million in the second quarter.

正如預期的那樣，第二季度商業房地產辦公大樓組合內的淨貸款沖銷有所增加，總計 1.06 億美元。

Ultimately, we expect additional charge-offs on this portfolio, the size of which will vary quarter to quarter given the nature of the loans.

最終，我們預期該投資組合會出現額外的沖銷，考慮到貸款的性質，沖銷的規模每季都會有所不同。

As of June 30, our reserves on the office portfolio were 10.3% of total office loans and, inside of that, 15.5% on the multi-tenant portfolio.

截至 6 月 30 日，我們辦公室投資組合的準備金佔辦公室貸款總額的 10.3%，其中多租戶投資組合的準備金佔辦公室貸款總額的 15.5%。

Accordingly, we believe we're adequately reserved.

因此，我們相信我們有足夠的保留。

Importantly, we continue to manage our exposure down, and as a result, our balances declined 4% or approximately $300 million linked quarter.

重要的是，我們繼續控制我們的風險敞口，因此，我們的餘額下降了 4%，即相關季度約 3 億美元。

In summary, PNC posted a solid second-quarter 2024, and we're well positioned for the second half of the year.

總而言之，PNC 的 2024 年第二季業績表現強勁，我們為下半年做好了充分準備。

Regarding our view of the overall economy, we're expecting continued economic growth in the second half of the year, resulting in real GDP growth of approximately 2% in 2024 and unemployment to increase modestly to slightly above 4% by year end.

關於我們對整體經濟的看法，我們預計下半年經濟將持續成長，到2024年實際GDP成長約為2%，失業率將小幅上升至年底略高於4%。

We expect the Fed to cut rates two times in 2024 with a 25-basis-point decrease in September and another in December.

我們預計聯準會將在 2024 年兩次降息，其中 9 月降息 25 個基點，12 月降息另一次。

Looking at the third quarter of 2024 compared to the second quarter of 2024, we expect average loans to be stable, net interest income to be up 1% to 2%, fee income to be up 1% to 2%, other noninterest income to be in the range of $150 million and $200 million, excluding Visa and the securities activity.

與 2024 年第二季相比，我們預計 2024 年第三季平均貸款將保持穩定，淨利息收入將成長 1% 至 2%，手續費收入將成長 1% 至 2%，其他非利息收入將成長介於1.5 億至2 億美元之間，不包括Visa 和證券活動。

We expect core noninterest expense to be up 3% to 4%.

我們預計核心非利息支出將成長 3% 至 4%。

We expect third-quarter net charge-offs to be between $250 million and $300 million.

我們預計第三季淨沖銷額將在 2.5 億美元至 3 億美元之間。

Regarding our full-year guidance, for ease of comparability to prior guidance, we exclude the first-quarter FDIC special assessment as well as the second quarter Visa gain and other significant items.

關於我們的全年指引，為了便於與先前的指引進行比較，我們排除了第一季 FDIC 特別評估以及第二季 Visa 收益和其他重要項目。

Considering our reported first-half operating results, third-quarter expectations, and current economic forecasts, our full-year 2024 guidance is as follows.

考慮到我們報告的上半年經營業績、第三季預期和當前經濟預測，我們對 2024 年全年指引如下。

For the full-year 2024 compared to full-year 2023, we expect average loans to be down less than 1%, which equates phenomenal loan growth in the second half of 2024.

與 2023 年全年相比，我們預計 2024 年全年平均貸款將下降不到 1%，相當於 2024 年下半年貸款將出現驚人成長。

We recognize the potential for greater loan growth, and should that occur, it will be accretive to our full-year average.

我們認識到貸款成長的潛力，如果發生這種情況，將提高我們的全年平均值。

Despite lower expected loan volumes, we expect full-year NII to be at the better end of our previous expectations or down approximately 4%.

儘管預期貸款量較低，但我們預計全年NII將優於我們先前的預期，即下降約4%。

We expect our securities repositioning and better-than-expected deposit dynamics to offset the impact of a lower-than-expected loan volume.

我們預期我們的證券重新定位和好於預期的存款動態將抵消貸款量低於預期的影響。

We expect noninterest income to be up 3% to 5%, slightly lower than our previous guidance due to continued softness in mortgage activity and, to a lesser extent, loan-related capital markets fees.

由於抵押貸款活動持續疲軟以及貸款相關資本市場費用的持續疲軟，我們預計非利息收入將增加 3% 至 5%，略低於我們先前的指導。

As a result, total revenue is expected to be down 1% to 2% and inside the range of our previous guidance.

因此，總收入預計將下降 1% 至 2%，且在我們先前的指導範圍內。

We now expect core noninterest expense to be down approximately 1% versus our previous guidance of stable in part due to our increased CIP target, and we expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 18.5%.

我們現在預計核心非利息費用將比我們先前的穩定指引下降約 1%，部分原因是我們提高了 CIP 目標，並且我們預計我們的有效稅率約為 18.5%。

With that, Bill and I are ready to take your questions.

至此，比爾和我準備好回答你們的問題了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

貝特西‧格拉塞克，摩根士丹利。

So on NII, I know you guided to the upper end of the range even though you've got slower loan growth clearly due to your NIM improving, at least that's one driver.

因此，在 NII 方面，我知道您已引導至該範圍的上限，儘管由於 NIM 改善而導致貸款增長明顯放緩，至少這是一個驅動因素。

There's others as well.

還有其他的。

I just wanted to understand how you're thinking about the securities restructuring from here.

我只是想了解一下您對這裡的證券重組有何看法。

Is this something that you would consider continuing, or is it -- we should look at it as a one-off from using the Visa gains?

您會考慮繼續這樣做，或者我們應該將其視為使用 Visa 收益的一次性成果？

And I ask just from a context of trying to think through NIM trajectory from here.

我只是從試圖從這裡開始思考 NIM 軌蹟的背景下提出這個問題。

You should think of it as one-off.

您應該將其視為一次性的。

I mean, you never say never, and I don't know what the future holds.

我的意思是，你永遠不會說永遠，而且我不知道未來會怎樣。

But practically at this point, we don't have to do any restructuring on anything to hit that stated goal of the '25 record NII.

但實際上在這一點上，我們不需要對任何事情進行任何重組來實現 25 年創紀錄的 NII 的既定目標。

And we don't have any plans to do that.

我們沒有任何計劃這樣做。

Yeah.

是的。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And then could you speak to how you're thinking about deposit, pricing, and levels?

那麼您能談談您對存款、定價和水平的看法嗎？

I mean, clearly there was tax-related outflows and things like that this quarter.

我的意思是，本季顯然存在與稅收相關的資金外流和類似情況。

And with loan growth being muted, should we be anticipating deposits stable to down, or are you going to be out there trying to get deposit growth?

在貸款成長放緩的情況下，我們是否應該預期存款穩定下降，或者您會努力實現存款成長？

Just, again, asking from the context of how we should think about deposit pricing as we work through our models.

只是，再次從背景出發詢問我們在研究模型時應該如何考慮存款定價。

Yeah, sure.

是的，當然。

Sure, Betsy.

當然，貝特西。

I would say the short answer to that is stable to down is our expectation with an emphasis on stable.

我想說，對穩定到下降的簡短回答是我們的期望，重點是穩定。

These things have really stabilized year over year, as you know, so our expectation is some downward drift but not anywhere near the level that we've seen in the last couple of years.

如您所知，這些事情確實逐年穩定，因此我們的預期是一些向下的漂移，但遠低於我們過去幾年看到的水平。

John Pancari, Evercore ISI.

約翰潘卡里 (John Pancari)，Evercore ISI。

On your NII outlook, it's good to hear the NII inflection and the components there.

在您的 NII 展望中，很高興聽到 NII 的變化及其組成部分。

Excluding the $70 million benefit from the securities repositioning in the back half of this year, I mean, it appears that the underlying NII run rate for the back half was guided a bit lower.

排除今年下半年證券重新定位帶來的 7000 萬美元收益，我的意思是，下半年的基礎 NII 運行率似乎被引導得較低一些。

Is that mainly loan growth that's the driver?

驅動因素主要是貸款成長嗎？

I mean, if you could just talk through that a little bit in terms of the factors impacting that run rate.

我的意思是，如果您能稍微談談影響運行率的因素。

Rob, I understand (inaudible) it wasn't -- if you backed out the restructuring, the guide would still be higher.

羅布，我知道（聽不清楚）事實並非如此——如果你反對重組，指導價仍然會更高。

And we did that while maintaining our loan growth assumption, and we did that because we just got tired of saying that, hey, loan growth is going to come at some point.

我們在維持貸款成長假設的同時做到了這一點，我們這樣做是因為我們厭倦了說，嘿，貸款成長將在某個時候出現。

So we took it out of the forecast.

所以我們把它從預測中刪除了。

If it shows up, we'll benefit like everybody else.

如果它出現，我們將像其他人一樣受益。

Yeah, I think that's an important point.

是的，我認為這是很重要的一點。

That's the big difference in this quarter.

這是本季的巨大差異。

We changed our guidance for average loans to be up 1% or approximately 1% for the year, John, as you can see now, down less than 1%.

我們將今年平均貸款增加 1% 或大約 1% 的指導更改為約翰，正如您現在所看到的，下降了不到 1%。

We don't control that.

我們無法控制這一點。

There's a basis for some loan growth in the second half of the year.

下半年貸款成長有一定基礎。

But the important point is we've taken it out of our guidance, and our NII improved to the better end of the previous guidance, not just due to the securities restructuring, but also the positive deposit dynamics and so forth.

但重要的一點是，我們已將其從我們的指導中剔除，我們的NII改善到先前指導的更好水平，這不僅是由於證券重組，還因為積極的存款動態等。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

Now thanks for the clarification.

現在感謝您的澄清。

It helps.

它有幫助。

And then just separately on the capital front.

然後分別在資本方面。

Clearly, the AOCI benefit from the securities repositioning is certainly noted.

顯然，AOCI 從證券重新定位中受益是顯而易見的。

How does that -- how do you feel now in terms of the pace of buybacks as you look out just given where you stand now on CET1 and from a fully phased-in?

考慮到您目前在 CET1 上的情況以及完全分階段實施的情況，您現在對回購的速度有何感受？

How does that make you feel about the pace of buybacks?

您對回購的步伐有何看法？

Are you going to remain at the $100 million pace per quarter or possibly accelerate?

您會保持每季 1 億美元的速度還是可能加快速度？

Yeah.

是的。

I mean, right now, we're on pace, and we continue to -- we expect to continue the pace that we've been on for the first couple of quarters.

我的意思是，現在我們正在加快步伐，並且我們將繼續——我們預計將繼續保持前幾季的步伐。

And as you know, the new rules are still in flux, so there's not finalization there.

如您所知，新規則仍在不斷變化，因此尚未最終確定。

And then beyond that, I think a driver will be what happens with loan growth which should be a factor in terms of that being our highest and best use of our capital.

除此之外，我認為貸款成長將是一個驅動因素，這應該是我們對資本的最高和最佳利用的一個因素。

But that was a factor in terms of deciding on buybacks.

但這是決定回購的因素。

But the important part is that we are buying back shares.

但重要的是我們正在回購股票。

Yeah.

是的。

I think, John, just on buybacks, I mean, at some point, I got to believe loan growth comes back.

約翰，我想，就回購而言，我的意思是，在某個時候，我必須相信貸款成長會回來。

But to the extent it doesn't, we're generating a lot of capital, obviously in excess of our dividend, then we'll face that question if we're not using that capital for loan growth, should we accelerate deployment in buybacks?

但在某種程度上，我們正​​在產生大量資本，顯然超過了我們的股息，那麼我們將面臨這個問題，如果我們不將這些資本用於貸款成長，我們是否應該加速部署回購？

We're not there yet, but that happens down the road if loan growth doesn't materialize because we're generating a lot of the capital.

我們還沒有做到這一點，但如果貸款成長沒有實現，這種情況就會發生，因為我們正在產生大量資本。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

艾莉卡·納賈里安，瑞銀。

Going back to slide 9, I presume that the stabilization in deposit rate paid, which is quite notable as part of the upgrade of the core NII guide even without the restructuring, and you answered, Rob, Betsy's question, I gather, on a balance standpoint.

回到投影片 9，我認為存款利率已經穩定，即使沒有重組，作為核心 NII 指南升級的一部分，這也是相當值得注意的，我認為你回答了 Rob，Betsy 的問題，總體而言立場。

But perhaps give us a sense on how you think deposit rate paid will trend from here and maybe under the scenario of rates staying where we are versus the scenario of what the forward curve is pricing and how quickly you may be able to reprice.

但或許可以讓我們了解您認為支付的存款利率將如何趨勢，也許是在利率保持不變的情況下，與遠期曲線定價的情況​​以及您能夠以多快的速度重新定價的情況​​下。

Yeah, sure.

是的，當然。

Our plan -- so slide 9 is a good slide, and it clearly shows a decline in the increase of the rate paid.

我們的計劃——所以幻燈片 9 是一張很好的幻燈片，它清楚地顯示了支付率增幅的下降。

The short answer to one of your questions there is, we do expect the rates may drift up a little bit.

對您的一個問題的簡短回答是，我們確實預計利率可能會略有上升。

But in contrast, more like a handful of basis points versus the contrast to the previous quarters where you 60 or 50 and even 30 and in recent quarters.

但相較之下，更像是幾個基點，與前幾季的 60 或 50 甚至 30 以及最近幾季的對比。

So it slowed down considerably.

所以它的速度大大減慢了。

That's our expectation in the short term, Erika.

這是我們短期內的期望，艾莉卡。

When we get into rate cuts, we'll see.

當我們降息時，我們會看到。

We'll be able to move pretty quickly on the high rates paid on commercial and wealth.

我們將能夠在商業和財富方面的高利率上迅速採取行動。

But we still do have these interest-bearing consumer deposits that are below market that will grind higher.

但我們仍有這些低於市場水準的計息消費者存款，這些存款將會進一步走高。

So that's something that we've talked about before and something that we'll need to keep our eye on.

所以這是我們之前討論過的事情，也是我們需要密切注意的事情。

Got it.

知道了。

And my second question refers back to slide 6 in terms of the forward starters.

我的第二個問題提到了幻燈片 6 中關於前鋒的問題。

When I look back at your 10-Q disclosure, it seems that you're largely neutral to interest rates.

當我回顧你們的 10-Q 披露時，似乎你們對利率基本上持中性態度。

And I know that your and Bill have talked a lot about the different factors that drive the inflection point in the Nike Swoosh.

我知道您和比爾已經就推動 Nike Swoosh 轉折點的不同因素進行了很多討論。

I'm wondering if the addition of the $18 billion in forward starters with the received fixed of 4.31%, does that impact the magnitude of the Swoosh for 2025?

我想知道增加 180 億美元的遠期啟動資金以及收到的固定利率為 4.31% 是否會影響 2025 年 Swoosh 的大小？

That's a good question.

這是個好問題。

Well, my answer to that would not necessarily be the magnitude, but the certainty.

好吧，我對此的回答不一定是規模，而是確定性。

Yes.

是的。

So essentially what we've done is lock in some of the Swoosh.

所以本質上我們所做的就是鎖定一些 Swoosh。

Yeah, probably 50 basis points ago.

是的，可能是 50 個基點前。

One of the issues, of course, when everybody talks about fixed rate, asset repricing is -- what does it reprice to?

當然，當每個人都在談論固定利率和資產重新定價時，問題之一是——它重新定價到什麼程度？

And of course, therefore, we're exposed to whatever the five-year rate is.

當然，因此，無論五年期利率是多少，我們都會面臨風險。

We're a year and two out, and those forward starting swaps simply, with a very opportunistic point, locked in materially higher rates than where we are today.

我們已經一年零兩年了，那些遠期啟動的掉期只是以一個非常機會主義的點，鎖定了比我們今天高得多的利率。

To Rob's point, it just locks in the certainty of what we'll be able to produce on a go-forward basis.

對羅布來說，它只是鎖定了我們未來能夠生產的產品的確定性。

Bill, I think that's such a good point because I think when people are thinking of fixed asset repricing, sometimes they misthink about the 5.25% as opposed to whatever.

比爾，我認為這是一個很好的觀點，因為我認為當人們考慮固定資產重新定價時，有時他們會誤解 5.25%，而不是其他什麼。

It could be at 4%, right, by the end of next year.

到明年年底，這個數字可能會達到 4%，對吧。

And to your point, you've locked in at 30.

就你而言，你已經鎖定在 30 歲了。

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

斯科特·西弗斯，派珀·桑德勒。

Rob, I was hoping you could maybe touch on major fee components in light of the softer expectations.

羅布，鑑於預期較為疲軟，我希望您能談談主要費用組成部分。

I mean, it sounds like it's just a -- or mostly a function of mortgage which sort of

我的意思是，聽起來這只是——或者主要是抵押貸款的一個功能，

[it is what it is]

[就是這樣]

Yeah.

是的。

I'm just curious to hear what you think is going well, what will need heavy lift, that kind of thing.

我只是很好奇，想聽聽你認為什麼進展順利，什麼需要大力推動，諸如此類。

Yeah.

是的。

It's mostly a refinement, Scott.

這主要是一種改進，斯科特。

So for the full-year guide around the fees, we lowered our expectations of increase especially now from up 4% to 6% to up 3% to 5%, so still up and and a small shift.

因此，對於圍繞費用的全年指南，我們降低了成長預期，尤其是現在，從上漲 4% 至 6% 下調至上漲 3% 至 5%，因此仍然上漲，並且略有變化。

Most of that coming from continued softness in mortgage, which we expect to be on the -- continue in the balance half or the second half of the year, a little bit less than what we were expecting.

其中大部分來自抵押貸款的持續疲軟，我們預計這種情況將在今年下半年或下半年持續，略低於我們的預期。

To a lesser extent, tied to the reduced loan guidance, we do have loan-related fees within our capital markets segment, think loan syndication.

在較小程度上，與減少的貸款指導相關，我們的資本市場部門確實有與貸款相關的費用，想想銀團貸款。

So generally speaking, if there's fewer loans, there will be fewer loan syndication fees.

所以一般來說，貸款越少，銀團貸款費用就會越少。

So that's just the direct correlation there to that guide.

這就是與該指南的直接相關性。

And again, we could see loan growth.

我們再次看到貸款成長。

And if that's the case, then those fees would come back.

如果是這樣的話，那麼這些費用就會回來。

But that's the general thinking everything else on the schedule, so to speak.

但可以這麼說，這就是日程上其他所有事情的普遍想法。

And then I wanted to ask a little bit of a kind of fine pointed one on loan growth.

然後我想問一些關於貸款成長的尖銳問題。

I think, Bill, in your prepared remarks, you noted the introduction of your first new credit card in a while as well as plans to introduce more.

我認為，比爾，在您準備好的發言中，您注意到一段時間以來推出了您的第一張新信用卡，並計劃推出更多信用卡。

Can you just contextualize your aspirations for that business and the path to get there over time?

您能否將您對該業務的期望以及隨著時間的推移實現該目標的路徑結合起來？

Yeah.

是的。

I mean, basically, we want to have our fair share of consumer-lending products with the clients we serve on our traditional DDA and other products, and we don't today.

我的意思是，基本上，我們希望與我們在傳統 DDA 和其他產品上服務的客戶分享消費貸款產品的公平份額，但今天我們沒有這樣做。

We're there in home equity.

我們在房屋淨值方面處於領先地位。

We're probably close in mortgage.

我們可能已經接近抵押貸款了。

We're underpenetrated in auto and in card.

我們在汽車和卡片領域的滲透率還不夠。

And in card in particular, we just haven't had good offerings.

特別是在信用卡方面，我們還沒有提供好的產品。

We've had stale technology.

我們的技術已經過時了。

We've had slow -- yeah, we weren't -- we need to increase, and it's an opportunity for us.

我們的速度很慢——是的，我們沒有——我們需要增加速度，這對我們來說是一個機會。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉，美國銀行。

Just maybe raw just -- it looks like you've locked in a lot of asset repricing.

也許只是原始的——看起來你已經鎖定了很多資產重新定價。

As we think about where the NIM should normalize relative to the 2.6%, give us a sense -- I mean, you probably have this number, do we hit 3% at some point next year, give in terms of what the normalized it would be?

當我們考慮淨利差應該相對於2.6% 標準化時，請給我們一個感覺——我的意思是，你可能知道這個數字，我們是否會在明年某個時候達到3%，請給出標準化後的情況是？

And can we get to a 3%-plus NIM next year even it maybe four or five rate cuts that?

即使可能降息四、五次，我們明年的淨利差能否達到 3% 以上？

Sure.

當然。

So we don't we don't necessarily provide NIM guidance because it's more an outcome that anything.

因此，我們不一定提供 NIM 指導，因為它更多的是一種結果。

But to answer your question, we've operated in, call it, a normal environment at a 3% NIM margin.

但為了回答你的問題，我們是在正常環境下運作的，淨利差為 3%。

So if we -- we definitely expect it to go up into '25.

因此，如果我們——我們肯定預計它會持續到 25 年。

If we approach those levels, it won't be like we haven't been there before.

如果我們接近這些水平，那就不會像我們以前從未達到那樣。

So it's reasonable.

所以這是合理的。

Got it.

知道了。

And just one quick one on credit quality.

簡單介紹一下信用品質。

I think I heard Bill say not a whole lot ex-CRE office.

我想我聽到 Bill 說了很多前 CRE 辦公室的內容。

But give us a sense if you're seeing any connects within the C&I customer base from the prolonged period of this higher for longer rates.

但是，請讓我們了解一下，如果您在工商業客戶群中發現了與長期較高的費率有關的任何關聯。

How do you handicap the risk of a downturn or recession over the coming months or the next year?

您如何應對未來幾個月或明年經濟下滑或衰退的風險？

Yeah.

是的。

So when we take a look at our total reserves and our total portfolio CRE office aside, things are pretty stable.

因此，當我們看看我們的總儲備和 CRE 辦公室的總投資組合時，情況相當穩定。

Maybe on quarter-to-quarter basis, consumer is a little bit better.

也許按季度來看，消費者的情況會好一些。

Commercial non-CRE is a little bit worse, but not bad.

商業非商業地產稍微差一點，但也不錯。

So definitely some more movements, some downgrades, reflecting the higher rates, slower economic activity in our commercial book, but no patterns or any themes to point out.

因此，在我們的商業書中，肯定會有更多的變動，一些降級，反映了利率上升、經濟活動放緩，但沒有任何模式或任何主題可供指出。

Got it, and outlook for reserve is stable from 2Q?

明白了，從第二季開始，準備金前景是穩定的嗎？

Reserves are stable, yeah.

儲備很穩定，是的。

Bill Carcache, Wolfe Research.

比爾‧卡卡什，沃爾夫研究中心。

Following up on your NIM and NII commentary, is there a point as we start to get cuts where you would start to worry that those rate cuts would potentially begin to negate some of the repricing benefit?

繼您對 NIM 和 NII 的評論之後，當我們開始降息時，您是否會開始擔心這些降息可能會開始抵消一些重新定價的好處？

And then separately, amid the debate over whether the curve's going to steepen or flatten depending on the outcome of the election, maybe could you just give us a little bit of a perspective on how PNC is positioned for either a flatter or a steeper yield curve environment?

然後，在關於曲線是否會根據選舉結果變得陡峭或平坦的爭論中，也許您可以給我們一些關於 PNC 如何定位更平坦或更陡峭的收益率曲線的觀點環境？

Sure.

當然。

We're largely indifferent.

我們基本上是無動於衷的。

I mean, at the very, very margin, we would benefit when the Fed cuts rates from a floating rate standpoint.

我的意思是，當聯準會從浮動利率的角度降息時，我們在很大程度上會受益。

Of course, we're exposed to the steepness of the curve because that plays in how we reprice maturing fixed-rate assets.

當然，我們面臨著曲線陡峭的風險，因為這會影響我們對到期固定利率資產的重新定價。

And that's variable.

這是可變的。

It's variable for us.

這對我們來說是可變的。

It's variable for everybody.

這對每個人來說都是可變的。

It's one of the reasons we locked some of it in.

這是我們鎖定其中一些內容的原因之一。

My own belief in our positioning is such that even though we would expect this Fed to cut here, I think in the somewhat sticky inflation, the fact that deficits matter, it's going to cause the curve to steepen out, so we locked some of it in.

我自己對我們定位的信念是，即使我們預計美聯儲會在這裡降息，我認為在通膨有些粘性的情況下，赤字很重要，這將導致曲線變得陡峭，所以我們鎖定了其中的一些在。

I don't feel terribly worried about the need to lock the rest of it in.

我並不非常擔心需要將其餘部分鎖定。

I just think we're in a good place.

我只是覺得我們處於一個好地方。

We're going to do fine.

我們會做得很好。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then on the asset quality side, slide 14 shows that steady upward trajectory in NPLs.

然後在資產品質方面，投影片 14 顯示不良貸款穩定上升的軌跡。

But the reserve rate is relatively stable to down slightly as you mentioned.

但正如你所提到的，準備金率相對穩定，略有下降。

So it looks like the loss content that you see in the portfolio is stable.

因此，您在投資組合中看到的損失內容看起來是穩定的。

It's certainly not rising despite the rising NPLs.

儘管不良貸款不斷上升，但它肯定不會上升。

Maybe could you speak a little bit to that?

也許你能談談這一點嗎？

And are there any implications of loan repricing that you are concerned about?

您擔心貸款重新定價有何影響嗎？

For example, would you expect any impact on the credit performance of your customers as their loans begin to reset to higher rates?

例如，當客戶的貸款開始重置為更高的利率時，您預計會對客戶的信用表現產生任何影響嗎？

I mean, just quickly, the movement from -- particularly in office CRE, right, from criticized to nonperforming-related reserving and charge-offs is all going as we've expected.

我的意思是，很快，特別是在辦公室 CRE 中，從受到批評到與不良相關的準備金和沖銷的變化正在按照我們的預期進行。

That's the natural progression of that cycle, nothing's changed.

這是該週期的自然進展，沒有任何改變。

We're not surprised by anything.

我們對任何事情都不感到驚訝。

We're reserved for it.

我們為此保留了。

Credit quality of corporate America as it relates to at what point do the people who have locked in fixed rates and loan rates start to have to pay more.

美國企業的信用品質關係到鎖定固定利率和貸款利率的人們何時開始必須支付更多費用。

Ultimately, at the margin is going to impact the way we rate somebody.

最終，這會在某種程度上影響我們評價某人的方式。

I think about multifamily is an example where higher rates have hurt coverage ratios.

我認為多戶家庭就是一個例子，較高的費率損害了覆蓋率。

It's not going to cause losses, but it's caused us to downgrade that asset class simply because the excess isn't there.

它不會造成損失，但它會導致我們降低該資產類別的評級，只是因為沒有多餘的資金。

I think it will flow through to corporate America over a period of time as well.

我認為在一段時間內它也會影響美國企業界。

But I'm not particularly worried about it.

但我並不特別擔心。

And I'll just add that our reserves are adequate.

我只想補充一點，我們的儲備是充足的。

The increase in the non-CRE NPLs in commercial really was one single large credit that is in our business credit fully secured.

商業領域非商業房地產不良貸款的增加確實是我們商業信用中得到充分保障的一項大信用。

Not in the US.

不在美國。

So it doesn't have a lot of loss context.

所以它沒有太多的損失背景。

Understood.

明白了。

Bill, if I could squeeze in one last one for you.

比爾，我能為你擠最後一張嗎？

I wanted to get your thoughts on the FedNow Instant Payment Services which has been getting some attention.

我想了解您對受到關注的 FedNow 即時支付服務的看法。

Is there a fee opportunity there?

那裡有收費的機會嗎？

I guess, what level of engagement are you seeing from PNC customers?

我想，您認為 PNC 客戶的參與度如何？

Do you see potential for lower cost instant digital payments disintermediating debit?

您是否認為低成本即時數位支付有可能消除借記仲介？

It'd just be helpful to hear your thoughts on the overall risk versus potential benefits of that to PNC.

聽聽您對 PNC 的整體風險與潛在收益的看法會很有幫助。

I don't think FedNow has any impact on PNC to be honest with you.

老實說，我認為 FedNow 對 PNC 沒有任何影響。

We've been active with real-time payments in the clearing house and the use cases, all the ones you can think about from insurers who want to pay real-time claims in a disaster through to certain payroll capabilities through to Zelle, for example.

我們一直積極致力於清算所和用例中的即時支付，例如，您可以想到的所有這些，從想要在災難中支付即時索賠的保險公司到某些工資單功能，再到 Zelle 。

And FedNow doesn't add or subtract anything to that opportunity.

FedNow 不會對這個機會做任何增加或減少。

The challenge you have with real-time payments both at the clearing house and FedNow at the Fed is they are not networks.

清算所和聯準會的 FedNow 即時支付面臨的挑戰是它們不是網路。

They are a rail to move money.

它們是轉移資金的軌道。

And the distinction between that is a network has very clear rules on who's responsible for items that don't transmit the right way, who's responsible for fraud, who's responsible for returns, on and on and on.

兩者之間的區別是，網路有非常明確的規則，誰對不正確傳輸的物品負責，誰對詐欺負責，誰對退貨負責，等等。

And neither of those two networks purposely were built -- or sorry, neither of those two payment rails purposely were built to (inaudible) moving money, which is very different.

這兩個網路都不是故意建立的——或者抱歉，這兩個支付通道都不是故意建立的（聽不清楚）轉移資金，這是非常不同的。

So I don't think long term, it has much of an impact, to be honest with you.

所以說實話，我認為從長遠來看，它不會產生太大影響。

Ken Usdin, Jefferies.

肯‧烏斯丁，傑弗里斯。

You guys gave us that great table last December with the repricing of fixed assets through 2025.

去年 12 月，你們為我們提供了一張很棒的表格，其中列出了到 2025 年的固定資產重新定價。

And I'm just wondering, how much carry forward will there also be through '26?

我只是想知道，到 26 年還有多少結轉？

Should we think about that ratably?

我們應該認真考慮一下嗎？

Obviously, it has been six months since you gave us that slide, but just wondering just how that rolls as we look further ahead.

顯然，自從您向我們提供這張幻燈片以來已經過去了六個月，但只是想知道當我們進一步展望未來時情況會如何發展。

Well, Ken, we're going to refrain from '26 guidance on the call here today.

好吧，肯，我們今天不會在電話會議上發表 26 年的指導意見。

But it will continue to increase, but the real change in the dynamic occurs obviously in the first and second quarter of '25 and then grows from there.

但它會繼續增加，但動態的真正變化顯然發生在 25 年第一季和第二季度，然後從那裡開始成長。

Okay.

好的。

Yeah.

是的。

That's why I'm asking the building box question as opposed to NII question.

這就是為什麼我要問建築盒子問題而不是 NII 問題。

Yeah, sure, sure.

是的，當然，當然。

Okay.

好的。

Understood.

明白了。

And then on the expenses, so you guys have been doing a great job holding the line.

然後在費用方面，你們在堅守陣地方面做得很好。

And I just wanted to ask like it looks like there's a pretty decent ramp baked into the second half on expenses.

我只是想問一下，下半年的開銷似乎有相當不錯的成長。

And I'm just wondering like what influences that?

我只是想知道是什麼影響了它？

Because it seems like expenses will be growing faster than revenues in the second half, or certainly faster than fees.

因為下半年支出的成長速度似乎將快於收入的成長，或肯定快於費用的成長。

So can you just walk through, is that conservatism?

那你能直接走過去嗎，這是保守主義嗎？

Is there some catch-up on investments that you're making?

您正在進行的投資有一些追趕嗎？

Any context on that?

有相關背景嗎？

Yeah, sure, sure.

是的，當然，當然。

No, we've outperformed on the first half, no doubt about it, and we feel great about that, and that's one of the reasons why we increased our CIP goal and also increased our guidance for the full-year expenses.

不，我們上半年的表現優於大盤，這是毫無疑問的，我們對此感覺很好，這就是我們提高 CIP 目標並提高全年支出指導的原因之一。

In the third quarter, it doesn't all happen uniformly.

在第三季度，情況並不完全一致。

In the third quarter, we do have some investments coming online, technology investments coming online that bring some depreciation expense.

在第三季度，我們確實有一些投資上線，技術投資上線，帶來了一些折舊費用。

We've got an additional day, those sorts of things.

我們還有額外的一天，諸如此類的事情。

So it's all part of the plan.

所以這都是計劃的一部分。

It's just expenses don't fall uniformly throughout the year.

只是全年開支的下降並不均勻。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

And then obviously, as that plays forward and if NII is better next year, you can also afford more cost growth, but we'll hear about that later.

顯然，隨著情況的發展，如果明年 NII 更好，您也可以承受更多的成本增長，但我們稍後會聽到。

Yeah.

是的。

That's right.

這是正確的。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

麥克梅奧，富國銀行。

Hi.

你好。

Similar to some of the others, maybe this is like the game of Jeopardy.

與其他一些遊戲類似，也許這就像 Jeopardy 遊戲。

I think the answer is, you have continued improvement program with expense savings going from $425 million up to $450 million.

我認為答案是，您實施了持續改進計劃，節省的費用從 4.25 億美元到 4.5 億美元不等。

You have securities repositioning that's giving you a boost to NII for the rest of this year, and you have fixed asset repricing that helps your securities yield go up by 400 basis points, your forward payment swaps go up by 180 basis points, and a little bit some other things.

你的證券重新定位將在今年剩餘時間內推動 NII，你的固定資產重新定價將幫助你的證券收益率上升 400 個基點，你的遠期付款互換上升 180 個基點，還有一點點。了一些其他的東西。

So the answer is, all those things are going in the right direction, yet you still have a guide for negative operating leverage for this year.

所以答案是，所有這些事情都在朝著正確的方向發展，但你仍然有今年負營運槓桿的指南。

I guess, what is the question?

我想，問題是什麼？

Or why is that?

或者說這是為什麼呢？

Or you can't eke it out or

或者你無法維持下去或者

--

--

Well, sure.

嗯，當然。

So now the question

所以現在的問題

--

--

And why should -- yeah, go ahead.

為什麼應該——是的，繼續吧。

Yeah.

是的。

So just to keep with your Jeopardy approach there, the question would be, what loan growth is going to be in the second half?

因此，為了保持你的危險方法，問題是，下半年貸款成長將是多少？

So it did come down.

所以它確實下來了。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

So -- yeah, so what's -- Bill, you were very adamant three quarters ago about loan growth.

所以——是的，那又怎樣——比爾，三個季度前你對貸款成長非常堅定。

And look, if you get NII in your range even without getting loan growth, I think people would rather take that than not.

看，如果即使貸款沒有成長，NII 也在你的範圍內，我認為人們寧願接受也不願意接受。

But we're hearing all the -- the biggest capital market players are just gushing with their expectations that this is a big capital markets recovery, the world's back, everything else.

但我們聽到所有——最大的資本市場參與者都在滔滔不絕地表達他們的期望：這是資本市場的一次大復甦，世界的回歸，以及其他一切。

H8 data actually showed a little bit better.

H8的數據其實表現得更好一些。

I think you might have underperformed the H8 data this quarter on loan growth.

我認為本季貸款成長的 H8 數據可能表現不佳。

So is it, A, that you're just being more prudent and conservative and you're not seeing the pricing that you want; or B, your mix is just a little bit differently; or C, maybe your team is not executing quite as well as you'd like them to do?

那麼，A，您是否只是更加謹慎和保守，而沒有看到您想要的定價？或B，你的組合只是有點不同；或 C，也許您的團隊執行得不如您希望的那麼好？

I think you're trying to read into this too hard.

我認為你太努力地解讀這個問題了。

Look, we're basically on H8, maybe a little soft on consumer because our card book didn't grow.

看，我們基本上是在 H8 上，可能對消費者有點軟弱，因為我們的卡片簿沒有成長。

When C&I comes back, traditionally, we'll do better.

傳統上，當 C&I 回來時，我們會做得更好。

We've been actually adding DHE.

我們實際上一直在添加 DHE。

They're just not drawing, and we're winning clients.

他們只是不畫畫，而我們正在贏得客戶。

All we did, Mike, was this whole notion of if we're giving guidance on the expectation and some crystal ball that says there's going to be loan growth when thus far we don't see evidence of it, we just took it out.

麥克，我們所做的就是整個概念，即我們是否對預期提供指導，以及一些水晶球，表明貸款將會增長，但到目前為止我們還沒有看到任何證據，我們只是把它拿出來。

If it shows up, then it's additive to everything we do.

如果它出現了，那麼它就會對我們所做的一切有所幫助。

And we certainly aren't underperforming.

我們的表現當然也不錯。

We're winning clients at a pace that we never have.

我們正在以前所未有的速度贏得客戶。

So it's literally this notion of when do they draw on lines, and we just quit -- we got tired of talking about it.

所以這實際上是他們什麼時候畫線的概念，我們就放棄了——我們厭倦了談論它。

When they do it, we'll benefit, and it will add to all of those numbers that you're looking at.

當他們這樣做時，我們就會受益，並且它會增加您正在查看的所有數字。

And any meat on those bones about customer acquisition?

關於客戶獲取有什麼實質內容嗎？

You did mention 51% loan utilization.

您確實提到了 51% 的貸款利用率。

That seems a pretty low level versus 53% a year ago and 55% historical.

與一年前的 53% 和歷史水準的 55% 相比，這似乎是一個相當低的水平。

So I guess, that would back up what you're saying, but how much are you growing loans?

所以我想，這會支持你的說法，但你增加了多少貸款？

You expanded to so many MSAs and implemented teams and did all that stuff that helps sometimes and other times doesn't help as much.

您擴展到如此多的 MSA 並實施了團隊，並做了所有這些有時有幫助但有時卻沒有多大幫助的事情。

Yeah, I don't -- Rob, do you know DHE number?

是的，我不知道——Rob，你知道 DHE 號碼嗎？

No, I don't know off the top of my head.

不，我根本不知道。

We've grown exposures, and we've won clients at a pace well beyond, particularly in the new markets, but overall, well beyond what we've managed to do historically.

我們擴大了曝光度，並以遠遠超出的速度贏得了客戶，特別是在新市場，但總體而言，遠遠超出了我們歷史上的努力。

We ought to and we will produce some of those metrics for you.

我們應該並且將為您提供其中一些指標。

Yeah, no.

是的，不。

That's all good.

這一切都很好。

And just to add to that, Mike, CapEx sales, as we said in our opening comments, CapEx sales ratios are low, inventory levels are low.

麥克，補充一點，資本支出銷售，正​​如我們在開場評論中所說，資本支出銷售比率很低，庫存水準也很低。

So there's just -- there's a lot pointing to loan growth.

因此，有許多跡象表明貸款增長。

It's just we don't control it.

只是我們無法控制它。

And just last follow-up on that because, Bill, you've been around for a while and Rob, the disconnect between what we're hearing and seeing in the capital markets and that activity picking up versus the still subdued loan growth as you say, CapEx and inventory are lower.

這是最後的後續行動，因為比爾，你已經存在了一段時間了，羅布，我們在資本市場上聽到和看到的情況與活動的回升與仍然低迷的貸款增長之間的脫節也就是說，資本支出和庫存較低。

It just seems CEO confidence is up, people ready to do all sorts of things, yet when the rubber meets the road with you guys, you're just not seeing it that much.

執行長的信心似乎增強了，人們準備好做各種各樣的事情，但是當橡膠與你們一起上路時，你們只是沒有看到那麼多。

You're trying to isolate us, and we're not isolated.

你們試圖孤立我們，但我們並沒有孤立。

I would happily tell you loan growth is going to be 2%, which is what all our peers are going to say.

我很高興地告訴您，貸款成長率將為 2%，這是我們所有同行都會說的。

And if they hit 2% -- if we hit 2% -- sorry, if they hit 2%, then we'll hit 2%.

如果他們達到 2%——如果我們達到 2%——抱歉，如果他們達到 2%，那麼我們也會達到 2%。

Or maybe a little better.

或者也許好一點。

Yeah.

是的。

I just -- I don't see anything suggesting that's going to happen.

我只是——我沒有看到任何跡象表明這種情況會發生。

So maybe -- I mean, what would you rather have us do here, put in our forecast a we hope this happens number or just give you numbers that we know are going to happen?

所以也許 - 我的意思是，您希望我們在這裡做什麼，輸入我們的預測，我們希望這種情況發生的數字，或者只是給您我們知道將會發生的數字？

No, I understand.

不，我明白。

Underpromise, never deliver, it's what you try to do.

少承諾，不兌現，這就是你要做的事。

It's just -- in the past, you said at this stage of the cycle, and historically, you've seen loan growth come back.

只是——在過去，你說在周期的這個階段，從歷史上看，你已經看到貸款增長回來了。

So it sounds like this cycle might be -- it might be a little bit different, it might not be.

所以聽起來這個週期可能會有點不同，也可能不會。

Yeah, I think -- I've spent a lot of time pondering this, Mike.

是的，我想——我花了很多時間思考這個問題，麥克。

I don't -- look, at the margin, it's going to be that the cost of holding inventory, right?

我不認為，從邊際來看，這將是持有庫存的成本，對嗎？

Just the cost of that drawn revolver is big time on the radar of corporates who are managing their own profitability.

正是這把左輪手槍的成本引起了管理自身獲利能力的企業的關注。

If you can run the lower inventory, your interest rates go way down when Fed funds is 5.25%.

如果您可以運行較低的庫存，那麼當聯邦基金利率為 5.25% 時，您的利率就會大幅下降。

So I think that's part of it.

所以我認為這是其中的一部分。

I think this whole uncertainty as we come up into the election on what's it going to look like from a regulatory basis, what am I allowed to invest in, am I going to get it approved?

我認為，當我們進入選舉時，整個不確定性是從監管基礎來看會是什麼樣子，我可以投資什麼，我會獲得批准嗎？

All of that, there's a lot of pent-up energy behind that, and we'll see.

這一切背後都有大量被壓抑的能量，我們拭目以待。

But I don't know.

但我不知道。

And it literally was this thing of rather than keep guessing and wishing, if it happens, it's a great outcome.

從字面上看，這不是不斷猜測和希望的事情，如果它發生了，那就是一個很好的結果。

But we don't need to rely on it.

但我們不需要依賴它。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

(Operator Instructions) Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

（操作員指令）Matt O'Connor，德意志銀行。

Bill, I haven't heard you guys talk too much about credit card.

比爾，我沒聽你們談論過太多關於信用卡的事。

You mentioned a new product and some more coming, and just thoughts on the strategy for card going forward and the targeted customer and then any interest in acquiring portfolios, which has not really been in the radar in the past.

您提到了一種新產品和更多即將推出的產品，只是考慮了卡的未來策略和目標客戶，以及對收購投資組合的任何興趣，而這在過去並沒有真正引起人們的注意。

Yeah, we're not going to acquire portfolios.

是的，我們不會收購投資組合。

The product that we have historically offered our existing clients and the service levels, websites, processing that went along with it were less than what we aspire to.

我們過去向現有客戶提供的產品以及隨之而來的服務水準、網站和處理都低於我們的期望。

We have an ability to get higher penetration with our existing clients, offer them better products, have better technology.

我們有能力在現有客戶中獲得更高的滲透率，為他們提供更好的產品，並擁有更好的技術。

Historically, we prioritized tech investments inside of our core retail space.

從歷史上看，我們優先考慮核心零售領域內的技術投資。

So think online, mobile, real time.

因此，請考慮線上、行動、即時。

And we just haven't put the same energy, although about a year ago we started to, into what we do in credit card.

我們只是還沒有投入同樣的精力，儘管大約一年前我們開始投入信用卡業務。

Some of that is service technology, ease for customers, application, all of that stuff.

其中一些是服務技術、客戶便利性、應用程式等等。

Some of it is just getting better at approvals.

其中一些只是在審批方面做得更好。

And we're not going to change our credit box, but we're missing a lot of clients who are in that credit box, because we make it too hard for them.

我們不會改變我們的信用箱，但我們錯過了很多信用箱內的客戶，因為我們讓他們變得太難了。

Yeah, or in simple terms, we're just underpenetrated relative to industry averages.

是的，或者簡單來說，相對於行業平均水平，我們的滲透率還不夠。

Nothing hugely aspirational other than just to have our fair share.

除了獲得我們公平的份額之外，沒有什麼太大的願望。

Yeah, that makes sense.

是的，這是有道理的。

And then just separately, I think you still have half of your original Visa stake.

然後單獨來看，我認為你仍然擁有原來 Visa 股份的一半。

And what's the plan on that?

對此有何計劃？

And I assume that's in the $750 million range mark to market for Visa, net of hedges and stuff like that.

我認為，扣除對沖等因素後，Visa 的市值約為 7.5 億美元。

But just frame what's left and the timing of it?

但只是框定剩下的內容和時間？

I'm sorry.

對不起。

I missed the front part of that question.

我錯過了這個問題的前半部。

Just the remaining Visa and

只剩下剩餘的簽證和

--

--

What happens with the back half?

後半部會發生什麼事？

So the 50% that we did not have the ability to monetize.

所以我們沒有能力將這 50% 貨幣化。

Well, Visa controls that schedule.

嗯，Visa 控制著這個時間表。

Some of it is reliant on the litigation resolution and some of it is reliant on the schedule they've laid out, which is sort of a multi-year exchange.

其中一些取決於訴訟解決方案，而另一些則取決於他們制定的時間表，這是一種多年期的交換。

So we'll just continue to monitor it.

所以我們將繼續監控它。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

傑拉德·卡西迪，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

You guys have a good fortune of having insights into the commercial real estate business through Midland, your CNBS servicer.

你們很幸運能夠透過 CNBS 服務商 Midland 深入了解商業房地產業務。

Can you give us some insights and color on what Midland is seeing in terms of their pipeline of increased special servicing, which of course I know has higher revenue, but more importantly, maybe directionally shows us where credit is heading?

您能否給我們一些關於米德蘭在增加特殊服務管道方面所看到的見解和色彩，我當然知道這會帶來更高的收入，但更重要的是，也許可以直接向我們展示信貸的走向？

Yeah, that's a good question, Gerard.

是的，這是個好問題，傑拉德。

Ironically, their special servicing balance has actually went down in the quarter, which is a little bit of a head scratcher.

諷刺的是，他們的特殊服務餘額實際上在本季度下降了，這有點令人頭疼。

We don't think that's necessarily indicative of a trend.

我們認為這不一定代表一種趨勢。

We do expect it to continue to go up.

我們確實預計它會繼續上漲。

But from the start, and I think you've asked this question before, it has been much, much slower in terms of those increases, those balances than you would have expected.

但從一開始，我想你之前已經問過這個問題，就這些成長和餘額而言，它比你預期的要慢得多。

Yeah.

是的。

I went through forecasts on sort of expectations on maturity bubbles and property types.

我對到期泡沫和房地產類型的預期進行了預測。

We don't expect that balance -- it's not going to grow at the pace that intuitively you might have thought of.

我們並不期望這種平衡──它不會以你直覺想像的速度成長。

Yeah, and that we thought a year ago.

是的，我們一年前就這麼想過。

Yeah, because things are getting cured, they're getting sold off pretty quickly.

是的，因為事情正在治愈，所以它們很快就會被賣掉。

There's -- for things that are really bad, there's still a lot of capital in the market.

對於那些非常糟糕的事情，市場上仍然有大量資金。

So they're turning it faster than perhaps we would have thought.

所以他們的轉變速度可能比我們想像的還要快。

Are they seeing any change in the product?

他們看到產品有什麼改變嗎？

Is it still primarily commercial office, or is it moving into any of the product areas?

它仍然以商業辦公為主，還是轉向任何產品領域？

It's mostly office.

主要是辦公室。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

It's interesting.

這很有趣。

It's all of the above for all of the historical reasons.

出於所有歷史原因，以上都是如此。

So there's still a little retail, there's hotels that will show up in there, there's multi-family that is in the multi-family that went to Freddie Fannie and then increasingly its office and the bubble down the road looks more like office.

因此，仍然有一些零售店，那裡會出現酒店，多戶住宅中的多戶住宅屬於房地美（Freddie Fannie），然後越來越多的是它的辦公室，而沿路的泡沫看起來更像是辦公室。

Got it.

知道了。

And then just on your commercial real estate, in slide 15, you give us obviously good detail and you've always told us about this multi-tenant office is the issue.

然後，就您的商業房地產而言，在幻燈片 15 中，您向我們提供了明顯的詳細信息，並且您總是告訴我們這個多租戶辦公室是問題所在。

It looks like obviously with 52% criticized, how far are you along in analyzing or reviewing that portfolio?

顯然有 52% 的人受到批評，您在分析或審查該投資組合方面進展到了什麼程度？

Are you completely through it, and now it's going a second time?

你已經徹底經歷過了，現在又要經歷第二次了嗎？

Or any color there?

或是有什麼顏色嗎？

I mean, we're

我的意思是，我們是

--

--

Oh, we've analyzed.

哦，我們已經分析過了。

Yeah, I mean, we're completely through it every quarter.

是的，我的意思是，我們每個季度都會徹底完成它。

I mean, a couple of things.

我的意思是，有幾件事。

I don't know we put this out there, but there's actually not that many loans.

我不知道我們是否把這個放在那裡，但實際上並沒有那麼多貸款。

So we don't have thousands of small loans.

所以我們沒有幾千的小額貸款。

These are typically larger loans.

這些通常是較大額貸款。

And so, we've gone asset by asset.

因此，我們逐一資產進行了研究。

And as anything gets close to being troubled, we look at three different appraisals, one of which is our own self-generated, using more extreme negative assumptions than what you might get from a commercial appraiser.

當任何事情都接近陷入困境時，我們會考慮三種不同的評估，其中一種是我們自己產生的，使用比商業評估師可能得到的更極端的負面假設。

We use higher vacancy rates, higher interest rates, longer time to lease up, higher cost to rehab, all that other stuff in our valuation.

我們在估值中使用了更高的空置率、更高的利率、更長的租賃時間、更高的修復成本以及所有其他因素。

So we go through this.

所以我們會經歷這件事。

We know all the properties.

我們知道所有的屬性。

We keep looking at them.

我們一直在關注他們。

We know what's going to happen to them.

我們知道他們會發生什麼事。

We know the timelines.

我們知道時間表。

Look, it's not a great outcome, but there's nothing in there that I think is going to surprise us.

看，這不是一個很好的結果，但我認為其中沒有什麼會讓我們感到驚訝的。

Very good.

非常好。

And just one last one on this, Bill.

比爾，這只是最後一個。

Geographically, are you guys finding certain parts of the country weaker than others?

從地理上看，你們是否發現這個國家的某些地區比其他地區弱？

I know there's a lot of talk about the big urban markets, Class B and C buildings.

我知道有很多關於大城市市場、B 級和 C 級建築的討論。

How about from your vantage point, what are you guys seeing geographically?

從你們的有利位置來看，你們在地理上看到了什麼？

It's not -- it's property by property, right?

這不是——這是一個又一個的財產，對吧？

You could be in a lousy city, but be in the right place and do fine.

你可能在一個糟糕的城市，但在正確的地方並且做得很好。

So I just don't know that it matters.

所以我只是不知道這很重要。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

That relates to our portfolio for sure.

這肯定與我們的投資組合有關。

Yeah.

是的。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

There are no further questions at this time.

目前沒有其他問題。

I would now like to turn the floor back over to Bryan Gill for closing comments.

我現在想把發言權交還給布萊恩·吉爾（Bryan Gill），請他發表結束語。

Well, thank you all for joining our call this morning.

好的，謝謝大家今天早上加入我們的電話會議。

And if you have any follow-up calls, feel free to reach out to the IR team, and we'd be happy to jump on a call with you.

如果您有任何後續電話，請隨時聯絡 IR 團隊，我們很樂意與您接聽電話。

Thanks, everybody.

謝謝大家。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This does conclude today's teleconference.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

We appreciate your participation.

我們感謝您的參與。

You may disconnect your lines at this time.

此時您可以斷開線路。

Enjoy the rest of your day.

享受你一天剩下的時間。