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Operator
Operator
Greetings, and welcome to the PNC Financial Services Group Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to introduce your host, Bryan Gill. Thank you, Bryan. You may begin.
各位好,歡迎參加 PNC 金融服務集團獲利電話會議。(操作說明)提醒各位,本次會議正在錄音。現在我很榮幸地向大家介紹主持人布萊恩·吉爾。謝謝你,布萊恩。你可以開始了。
Bryan Gill - Executive Vice President, Director of Investor Relations
Bryan Gill - Executive Vice President, Director of Investor Relations
Well, good morning, and welcome to today's conference call for the PNC Financial Services Group. I am Bryan Gill, the Director of Investor Relations for PNC and participating on this call are PNC's Chairman and CEO, Will Demchak; and Rob Reilly, Executive Vice President and CFO.
早安,歡迎參加 PNC 金融服務集團今天的電話會議。我是 PNC 投資者關係總監 Bryan Gill,參加本次電話會議的還有 PNC 董事長兼執行長 Will Demchak,以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Rob Reilly。
Today's presentation contains forward-looking information. Cautionary statements about this information as well as reconciliations of non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release materials as well as our SEC filings and other investor materials. These are all available on our corporate website, www.pnc.com, under Investor Relations. These statements speak only as of January 16, 2026, and PNC undertakes no obligation to update them.
今天的簡報包含前瞻性資訊。有關此資訊的警示性聲明以及非GAAP指標的調整說明已包含在今天的盈利發布資料、我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件和其他投資者資料中。所有這些資訊都可以在我們公司網站 www.pnc.com 的「投資者關係」欄位下找到。這些聲明僅代表截至 2026 年 1 月 16 日的情況,PNC 不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。
Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bill.
現在我想把電話交給比爾。
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Bryan, and good morning, everyone. As you've seen, by virtually all measures, 2025 was a successful year for PNC. We earned $7 billion in net income or $16.59 per share. Strong performance across all our lines of business resulted in record revenue, 5% operating leverage and 21% EPS growth for the year. As you've likely seen on January 5th, we closed the acquisition of FirstBank, and we're all excited about the opportunity in front of us, and I'd like to welcome the FirstBank employees to PNC. We ended 2025 with substantial momentum, marked by meaningful client growth across all of our businesses and our ongoing branch expansion, and we're poised to accelerate that growth in 2026.
謝謝你,布萊恩,大家早安。正如你所看到的,從幾乎所有指標來看,2025 年對 PNC 來說都是成功的一年。我們獲得了70億美元的淨利潤,即每股16.59美元。所有業務線的強勁表現使公司全年營收創歷史新高,營運槓桿率達到 5%,每股收益成長 21%。正如你們在 1 月 5 日可能已經看到的,我們完成了對 FirstBank 的收購,我們都對擺在我們面前的機會感到興奮,我謹代表 PNC 銀行歡迎 FirstBank 的員工加入 PNC 銀行。2025 年末,我們取得了顯著的成長勢頭,所有業務的客戶數量都實現了顯著增長,分行也在持續擴張,我們已做好準備,在 2026 年加速成長。
As Rob will highlight in a second, we're positioned to generate meaningful positive operating leverage again this year. Importantly, we expect to do so on a PNC stand-alone basis and also with the addition of FirstBank. Further, we will exit 2026 with FirstBank's fully integrated results, which we expect will add approximately $1 per share to the 2027 results. Finally, we expect to achieve all of this while also executing one of the largest investment agendas we've ever pursued, including all of our technology initiatives, payments capabilities and consumer rewards platforms and of course, our branch expansions.
正如羅布稍後將重點提到的,我們今年有望再次產生有意義的積極經營槓桿效應。重要的是,我們預計 PNC 將獨立運營,並且還會收購 FirstBank。此外,我們將於 2026 年底獲得 FirstBank 的全面整合業績,我們預計這將使 2027 年的業績每股增加約 1 美元。最後,我們希望在實現所有這些目標的同時,也能執行我們有史以來規模最大的投資計畫之一,包括我們所有的技術計畫、支付能力和消費者獎勵平台,當然還有我們的分公司擴張。
Now before I wrap up, I want to thank all of our employees for everything they do for our company and our customers, including our new teammates from FirstBank. I'm incredibly excited about what we're going to be able to accomplish together. And with that, I'll turn it over to Rob to take you through the numbers. Rob?
在結束之前,我要感謝我們所有的員工為公司和客戶所做的一切,包括來自 FirstBank 的新同事。我對我們即將共同取得的成就感到無比興奮。接下來,我將把麥克風交給羅布,讓他為大家講解這些數字。搶?
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Our balance sheet is on Slide 3 and is presented on an average basis. For the linked quarter, loans of $328 billion grew by $2 billion or 1%. Investment securities of $142 billion decreased $2 billion or 2%. Deposit balances were up $8 billion or 2% and average $440 billion and borrowings decreased $6 billion to $60 billion.
謝謝你,比爾,大家早安。我們的資產負債表在第 3 張投影片上,並以平均值的形式呈現。上一季度,貸款總額為 3,280 億美元,成長 20 億美元,增幅為 1%。1,420億美元的投資證券減少了20億美元,降幅為2%。存款餘額增加了 80 億美元,增幅為 2%,平均為 4,400 億美元;借款減少了 60 億美元,降至 600 億美元。
AOCI as of December 31 was negative $3.4 billion, an improvement of $669 million or 16% compared with the prior quarter. Our tangible book value of $112.51 per common share increased 4% linked quarter and 18% compared to the same period a year ago.
截至 12 月 31 日,AOCI 為負 34 億美元,比上一季改善了 6.69 億美元,降幅達 16%。我們的每股普通股有形帳面價值為 112.51 美元,季增 4%,年增 18%。
We remain well capitalized at quarter end with an estimated CET1 ratio of 10.6% or 9.8% when including AOCI. We continue to be well positioned with capital flexibility. During the quarter, we returned $1.1 billion of capital to shareholders. Common dividends were $676 million. Share repurchases were approximately $400 million, and we're at the high end of our estimated range. Going forward, we expect to further increase our quarterly share repurchases to a range of $600 million to $700 million.
截至季末,我們資本充足,預計一級資本適足率為 10.6%,若計入其他綜合收益,則為 9.8%。我們依然擁有良好的資金彈性。本季度,我們向股東返還了 11 億美元的資本。普通股股息為6.76億美元。股票回購金額約為 4 億美元,這已達到我們預估範圍的上限。展望未來,我們預計將進一步增加季度股票回購規模,達到 6 億至 7 億美元。
Slide 4 shows our loans in more detail. Loan balances averaged $328 billion in the fourth quarter, an increase of $2 billion or 1% linked quarter. The growth was driven by higher commercial balances. On a spot basis, loans grew $5 billion or 2%, reflecting broad-based new production across our C&I franchise. Total loan yield of 5.6% decreased 16 basis points linked quarter driven by lower interest rates.
第 4 張投影片更詳細地展示了我們的貸款情況。第四季貸款餘額平均為 3,280 億美元,比上一季增加 20 億美元,增幅為 1%。成長主要由更高的商業餘額推動。以現貨交易計算,貸款成長了 50 億美元,增幅達 2%,反映了我們工商業業務的廣泛新增產出。受利率下降的影響,貸款總收益率為 5.6%,季減 16 個基點。
Compared to the same period a year ago, average loans increased $9 billion or 3%. Commercial loans grew $10 billion or 5% as strong growth in C&I was partially offset by a decline in CRE loans. Notably, we believe that our CRE balances have largely stabilized, and we anticipate moderate growth in 2026. Consumer loans declined $1 billion or 1% as growth in auto balances was more than offset by a decline in residential real estate loans.
與去年同期相比,平均貸款額增加了 90 億美元,增幅為 3%。商業貸款成長了 100 億美元,增幅為 5%,其中工商業貸款的強勁成長被商業房地產貸款的下降部分抵消。值得注意的是,我們認為我們的商業房地產餘額已基本穩定,預計 2026 年將實現溫和成長。消費貸款減少了 10 億美元,降幅為 1%,因為汽車貸款餘額的成長被住宅房地產貸款的下降所抵消。
Slide 5 covers our deposit balances in more detail. Deposits averaged $440 billion, an increase of $8 billion or 2% and included seasonal growth in commercial deposits. Noninterest-bearing balances of $95 billion increased $2 billion or 2% and represent 22% of total average deposits. Our total rate paid on interest-bearing deposits decreased 18 basis points to 2.14% in the fourth quarter, reflecting lower rates.
第 5 張投影片更詳細地介紹了我們的存款餘額。存款平均為 4,400 億美元,增加了 80 億美元,增幅為 2%,其中包括商業存款的季節性增長。不計息餘額為 950 億美元,增加了 20 億美元,增幅為 2%,佔平均存款總額的 22%。第四季度,我們支付給計息存款的總利率下降了 18 個基點,至 2.14%,反映了利率的下降。
Turning to Slide 6. We highlight our income statement trends. For the full year of 2025 compared to 2024, we've demonstrated strong momentum across our franchise. Total revenue increased $1.5 billion or 7% driven by both record net interest income and non-interest income. Non-interest expense was well controlled and increased by 2%, which resulted in 5% positive operating leverage and 15% PPNR growth. Net income of $7 billion was up $1 billion, and full year diluted EPS grew 21% to $16.59 per share.
翻到第6張投影片。我們重點介紹損益表趨勢。與 2024 年相比,2025 年全年,我們整個業務都展現了強勁的發展勢頭。總收入成長 15 億美元,增幅 7%,主要得益於淨利息收入和非利息收入均創歷史新高。非利息支出得到了很好的控制,並成長了 2%,從而實現了 5% 的正向經營槓桿和 15% 的淨利潤成長。淨利潤為 70 億美元,比上年增長 10 億美元;全年稀釋後每股收益增長 21%,達到每股 16.59 美元。
Comparing the fourth quarter to the third quarter, total revenue was a record $6.1 billion and grew $156 million or 3%. Non-interest expense of $3.6 billion increased $142 million or 4%. And as a result, we delivered record PPNR of $2.5 billion. Provision was $139 million. Our effective tax rate was 12.7%, reflecting favorable resolution of several tax matters. And our fourth quarter net income was $2 billion or $4.88 per diluted share.
與第三季相比,第四季總營收創下 61 億美元的紀錄,成長了 1.56 億美元,增幅為 3%。非利息支出為 36 億美元,增加了 1.42 億美元,增幅為 4%。因此,我們實現了創紀錄的 25 億美元 PPNR。撥備金額為1.39億美元。我們的實際稅率為 12.7%,這反映出幾個稅務問題得到了有利的解決。我們第四季淨收入為 20 億美元,即每股攤薄收益 4.88 美元。
Turning to Slide 7. We detail our revenue trends. Fourth quarter revenue increased $156 million or 3% compared to the prior quarter. Net interest income of $3.7 billion increased $83 million or 2%. The growth was driven by lower funding costs, loan growth and the continued benefit of fixed rate asset repricing. And our net interest margin was 2.84%, an increase of 5 basis points. Non-interest income of $2.3 billion increased $73 million or 3%. Inside of that, fee income increased $54 million or 3% linked quarter.
請翻到第7張投影片。我們詳細介紹了收入趨勢。第四季營收較上一季成長1.56億美元,增幅為3%。淨利息收入為 37 億美元,增加了 8,300 萬美元,增幅為 2%。成長的驅動因素包括融資成本降低、貸款成長以及固定利率資產重新定價的持續好處。我們的淨利差為 2.84%,成長了 5 個基點。非利息收入為 23 億美元,增加了 7,300 萬美元,增幅為 3%。其中,手續費收入較上季增加 5,400 萬美元,增幅為 3%。
Looking at the details. Asset management and brokerage increased $7 million or 2% driven by both higher equity markets and positive client net flows. Capital markets and advisory revenue increased $57 million or 13% driven by M&A advisory revenue. Card and Cash Management declined $4 million or 1% as higher treasury management revenue was more than offset by other seasonally lower activity. Lending and deposit services increased $7 million or 2% and included higher loan commitment fees.
注意細節。受股票市場上漲和客戶淨流入的雙重推動,資產管理和經紀業務收入增加了 700 萬美元,增幅為 2%。資本市場和諮詢收入成長了 5,700 萬美元,增幅達 13%,主要得益於併購顧問收入的成長。卡片和現金管理業務收入下降了 400 萬美元,降幅為 1%,因為資金管理收入的成長被其他季節性業務的下降所抵消。貸款和存款服務收入增加了 700 萬美元,增幅為 2%,其中包括更高的貸款承諾費。
Mortgage revenue decreased $13 million or 8%, reflecting lower MSR hedging activity down from elevated third quarter levels. And other non-interest income of $217 million increased $19 million, primarily due to higher private equity revenue. The Visa derivative adjustment in the fourth quarter was negative $41 million, primarily related to Visa's December announcement of a litigation escrow funding. Notably, we continue to see strong momentum across our lines of business and throughout our markets. And for the full year 2025, non-interest income of $8.7 billion grew $633 million or 8% compared to 2024.
抵押貸款收入減少了 1,300 萬美元,降幅為 8%,反映出 MSR 對沖活動較第三季的高點有所下降。其他非利息收入為 2.17 億美元,增加了 1,900 萬美元,主要原因是私募股權收入增加。Visa 第四季的衍生性商品調整為負 4,100 萬美元,主要與 Visa 12 月宣布的訴訟託管融資有關。值得注意的是,我們各個業務線和各個市場都持續保持強勁的成長動能。2025 年全年,非利息收入為 87 億美元,比 2024 年成長 6.33 億美元,增幅為 8%。
Turning to Slide 8. Our fourth quarter expenses were up $142 million or 4% linked quarter. The growth was driven by increased business activity and seasonality, partially offset by a reduction to the FDIC special assessment accrual. Full year non-interest expense increased $310 million or 2% reflecting business growth and continued investments in our franchise. As you know, we had a goal of $350 million in cost savings through our 2025 continuous improvement program and we successfully completed actions to exceed that goal.
翻到第8張幻燈片。我們第四季的支出增加了 1.42 億美元,季增 4%。成長主要受商業活動增加和季節性因素推動,但部分被聯邦存款保險公司特別評估應計款項的減少所抵銷。全年非利息支出增加 3.1 億美元,增幅 2%,反映了業務成長和對我們特許經營業務的持續投資。如您所知,我們2025年的持續改善計畫的目標是節省3.5億美元的成本,我們成功地完成了各項行動,超額完成了這一目標。
Looking forward to 2026, our annual CIP target is once again $350 million, which is independent of the FirstBank acquisition. And this program will continue to fund a significant portion of our ongoing business and technology investments.
展望 2026 年,我們的年度資本投入目標仍是 3.5 億美元,這與 FirstBank 的收購無關。該計劃將繼續為我們持續的業務和技術投資提供相當一部分資金。
Our credit metrics are presented on Slide 9. Overall, credit quality remains strong. Nonperforming loans increased $81 million or 4% linked quarter. At year-end, NPLs represented 0.67% of total loans, down from 0.73% last year. Total delinquencies of $1.4 billion on December 31 represented 0.44% of total loans, up slightly quarter-over-quarter, but importantly unchanged from the same period a year ago.
我們的信用指標在第9頁幻燈片中列出。整體而言,信貸品質依然強勁。不良貸款增加 8,100 萬美元,季增 4%。截至年底,不良貸款佔貸款總額的0.67%,低於去年的0.73%。截至 12 月 31 日,拖欠貸款總額為 14 億美元,佔貸款總額的 0.44%,環比略有上升,但與去年同期相比基本持平。
Net loan charge-offs were $162 million, down $17 million and represent a net charge-off ratio of 20 basis points. And provision was $139 million, reflecting a slight release of loan reserves. At the end of the fourth quarter, our allowance for credit losses totaled $5.2 billion or 1.58% of total loans.
淨貸款核銷額為 1.62 億美元,減少了 1,700 萬美元,淨核銷率為 20 個基點。撥備為 1.39 億美元,反映出貸款儲備金略有釋放。第四季末,我們的信貸損失準備金總額為 52 億美元,佔貸款總額的 1.58%。
Turning to Slide 10. As you know, we successfully completed the FirstBank acquisition earlier this month, greatly expanding our presence in high-growth communities across Colorado and Arizona. Importantly, PNC and FirstBank employees have made great progress in preparing for a successful conversion and integration, which is scheduled for June of 2026. I also want to provide an update to some of the deal metrics, all of which are the same or better than we had originally estimated. As you know, the purchase price was 30% cash and 70% stock and was approximately $4.2 billion at closing. And we issued 13.9 million shares of common stock as part of the consideration.
翻到第10張投影片。如您所知,我們在本月初成功完成了對 FirstBank 的收購,大大擴展了我們在科羅拉多州和亞利桑那州高成長社區的業務。重要的是,PNC 和 FirstBank 的員工在為成功轉換和整合做準備方面取得了巨大進展,轉換和整合計劃於 2026 年 6 月進行。我還想更新一些交易指標,所有這些指標都與我們最初的估計相同或更好。如您所知,此次收購價格為30%現金及70%股票,成交時總價約42億美元。作為對價的一部分,我們發行了 1,390 萬股普通股。
At closing, tangible book value is estimated to be $109 per share, exceeding our expectations at deal announcement. The reduction to our CET1 ratio is estimated to be approximately 40 basis points, which is in line with our original expectations. And we continue to project an internal rate of return of approximately 25%. Our expectation for non-recurring merger and integration costs is approximately $325 million, the majority of which will be recognized in the first half of 2026. Importantly, we anticipate achieving substantial operational efficiencies across the FirstBank franchise. And as a result, we expect FirstBank to generate an annualized earnings run rate of approximately $1 per share by the end of the year.
交易完成後,每股有形帳面價值預計為 109 美元,超出我們在交易宣佈時的預期。我們預計 CET1 比率將下降約 40 個基點,這與我們最初的預期一致。我們繼續預測內部報酬率約為 25%。我們預計非經常性併購和整合成本約為 3.25 億美元,其中大部分將在 2026 年上半年確認。重要的是,我們預計 FirstBank 旗下所有業務將實現顯著的營運效率提升。因此,我們預計 FirstBank 到今年年底的年化每股收益將達到約 1 美元。
To summarize, PNC reported a strong fourth quarter, which contributed to a very successful 2025. We're well positioned to continue this momentum into 2026. And with the addition of FirstBank, we're poised to enhance our growth trajectory.
總而言之,PNC 第四季業績強勁,為 2025 年的成功做出了貢獻。我們已做好充分準備,將這股勢頭延續到 2026 年。隨著 FirstBank 的加入,我們有望進一步提升成長動能。
Regarding our view of the overall economy, we're expecting continued economic growth over the course of 2026, resulting in approximately 2% real GDP growth and unemployment to remain near 4.5% throughout the year. We expect the Fed to cut rates 2 times in 2026 with a 25 basis point decrease in July and another in September.
關於我們對整體經濟的看法,我們預計2026年經濟將持續成長,實質GDP成長率約為2%,失業率全年將維持在4.5%左右。我們預計聯準會將在 2026 年降息兩次,7 月降息 25 個基點,9 月再降息一次。
Looking ahead, FirstBank's results will be reflected in our financial statements and accordingly, our guidance is based on the projected financial results of the combined company. Our outlook for the full year 2026 compared to 2025 results is as follows: we expect full year average loan growth to be approximately 8%. We expect total revenue to be up approximately 11%. Inside of that, our expectation is for net interest income to be up approximately 14% and non-interest income to grow 6%. Non-interest expense to be up approximately 7% excluding an estimated $325 million of integration expense.
展望未來,FirstBank 的業績將反映在我們的財務報表中,因此,我們的業績指引是基於合併後公司的預期財務表現。我們對 2026 年全年業績與 2025 年業績的展望如下:我們預計全年平均貸款成長率約為 8%。我們預計總收入將成長約 11%。其中,我們預計淨利息收入將成長約 14%,非利息收入將成長 6%。不包括預計 3.25 億美元的整合費用,非利息支出將增加約 7%。
And we expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 19.5%. Based on this guidance, we expect to generate approximately 400 basis points of positive operating leverage, nearly all of which is driven by PNC on a stand-alone basis.
我們預計實際稅率約為 19.5%。根據這項指導,我們預計將產生約 400 個基點的正向經營槓桿,其中幾乎全部是由 PNC 獨立營運所驅動的。
Looking ahead to the first quarter on Slide 12. Our guidance, as I just mentioned, includes the impact of the FirstBank acquisition. Our outlook for the first quarter of 2026 compared to the fourth quarter of 2025 is as follows: we expect average loans to be up approximately 5%. Net interest income to be up approximately 6%, fee income to be down 1% to 2%, other non-interest income to be in the range of $150 million to $200 million. Taking the component pieces of revenue together, we expect total revenue to be up 2% to 3%.
展望第一季度,請參閱第 12 張投影片。正如我剛才提到的,我們的指導意見包含了FirstBank收購案的影響。我們對 2026 年第一季與 2025 年第四季的展望如下:我們預計平均貸款額將成長約 5%。淨利息收入將成長約 6%,手續費收入將下降 1% 至 2%,其他非利息收入將在 1.5 億美元至 2 億美元之間。綜合各項收入組成,我們預期總收入將成長 2% 至 3%。
We expect non-interest expense, excluding integration expenses to be up approximately 4%. We expect first quarter net charge-offs to be approximately $200 million and we expect diluted common shares to average approximately $406 million in the first quarter, which includes the impact of shares issued as part of the FirstBank acquisition.
我們預計,不包括整合費用在內的非利息支出將增加約 4%。我們預計第一季淨沖銷額約為 2 億美元,預計第一季稀釋後普通股平均約為 4.06 億美元,其中包括作為收購 FirstBank 的一部分而發行的股份的影響。
With that, Bill and I are ready to take your questions.
那麼,我和比爾就可以回答你們的問題了。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from John Pancari from Evercore ISI. Your line is now live.
(操作說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。您的線路已開通。
John Pancari - Analyst
John Pancari - Analyst
Good morning. Just a question, actually straight to capital. On the buyback front, I know you bought back $400 million in the fourth quarter. You guided to the $600 million to $700 million in the deck. And then Rob, in your comments there, it sounds like you were pointing to that $600 million to $700 million quarterly pace as something that could continue. If you could just clarify on that? Is that a fair assumption as we look through '26?
早安.只是問個問題,直接問資本問題。在股票回購方面,我知道你們在第四季回購了價值 4 億美元的股票。你引導牌組中出現了 6 億至 7 億美元的金額。羅布,從你的評論來看,你似乎認為每季 6 億至 7 億美元的增速可能會繼續保持下去。您能解釋一下嗎?展望 2026 年,這樣的假設是否合理?
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. No, you're spot on there, that $600 million to $700 million is a quarterly pace that we expect to continue through '26.
是的。沒錯,你說得完全正確,我們預計到 2026 年,每季將保持 6 億至 7 億美元的成長速度。
John Pancari - Analyst
John Pancari - Analyst
Got it. Okay. All right. And then also related to capital, I know your CET1 came in at 10.6%, and you guided to the 10.4% with FirstBank deal. Could you just remind us of your -- of what -- how we should think about a targeted CET1 as you look through 2026 considering the deal and considering growth and buybacks.
知道了。好的。好的。另外,關於資本方面,我知道你們的 CET1 為 10.6%,而你們與 FirstBank 達成的交易預期為 10.4%。您能否提醒我們一下,在您展望 2026 年,考慮交易、成長和回購時,我們應該如何看待有針對性的 CET1?
And then how should we think maybe about a good medium-term ROTCE target for you guys? I know you came in around 16.5% full year for '25 ROTCE and the fourth quarter was around 18%. How can we think about a good medium-term target for PNC?
那麼,我們該如何考慮一個適合你們的中期ROTCE目標呢?我知道你們 2025 年全年 ROTCE 約為 16.5%,第四季約為 18%。我們如何考慮PNC的中期目標?
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Okay. Well, that's a lot there, John, but let's take it as you asked it. In terms of our CET1 ratio, to be clear, we finished the year at 10.6%. With the acquisition of FirstBank, we'll take that down 40 basis points to somewhere around 10.2%, 10.3% in terms of where we are now. With the share repurchases that we expect in the first quarter, we would expect to end the first quarter somewhere around that range.
好的。約翰,資訊量確實很大,但我們就照你問的來吧。就我們的 CET1 比率而言,需要明確的是,我們年底的 CET1 比率為 10.6%。收購 FirstBank 後,我們將把利率降低 40 個基點,降至 10.2% 到 10.3% 左右,與我們目前的利率水準相比。考慮到我們預計第一季將進行的股票回購,我們預計第一季末的股價將大致在這個區間內。
We've said that we've got a target right now, and that target is obviously short term because there's a lot of capital rules that are still in fluff, but we've said 10%. So in the first quarter, we'll be in that 10.2%, 10.3%, working our way down from 10.6%.
我們已經說過,我們現在有一個目標,這個目標顯然是短期的,因為還有很多資本規則尚未明確,但我們已經說過是 10%。所以第一季度,我們的佔比將維持在 10.2% 到 10.3% 之間,從 10.6% 逐漸下降。
In terms of ROTCE, you're right. We actually exited fourth quarter of '25 elevated -- somewhat elevated because of the tax reserve release. But I'd say we're at 17% right now as our exit rate into '26. When we get through '26 with the FirstBank acquisition and we deliver on the guidance that we expect to deliver by this time next year, and again, this is just math, so we don't have targets. But this time next year, we'll be at 18%, heading higher.
就ROTCE而言,你是對的。實際上,我們在 2025 年第四季末的業績有所提升——由於稅收儲備的釋放,業績略有提升。但我認為,我們目前的退出率(到 2026 年)是 17%。當我們完成對 FirstBank 的收購,並在 2026 年實現我們預計在明年這個時候實現的業績指引時(再說一遍,這只是數學計算,所以我們沒有設定目標)。但明年這個時候,我們將達到 18%,而且還會繼續上升。
John Pancari - Analyst
John Pancari - Analyst
Thanks Robert, appreciate that.
謝謝羅伯特,感激不盡。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is coming from Scott Siefers from Piper Sandler. Your line is now live.
下一個問題來自Piper Sandler公司的Scott Siefers。您的線路已開通。
Scott Siefers - Analyst
Scott Siefers - Analyst
Good morning, thanks for taking my question. Rob, I was hoping you could maybe sort of delve into your thoughts on NII momentum for the year. It can be a little noisy given that you had some stand-alone thoughts previously. I think you all had been saying like $1 billion or more of growth, if I recall correctly. Now we've got FirstBank into the guidance. Maybe if you can just sort of help bridge the gap and go through any places where you're feeling incrementally better or worse or any change on how you see NII projecting through the year?
早上好,謝謝您回答我的問題。羅布,我希望你能深入探討你對今年 NII 成長動能的看法。鑑於你之前有一些獨立的想法,現在可能會有點吵雜。我記得你們之前好像都說過成長額會達到10億美元甚至更多。現在我們已經將FirstBank納入了指導範圍。或許您可以幫忙彌補差距,說說您感覺自己在哪些方面有所改善或惡化,或者您對今年的淨收益預測有何變化?
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sure. So our guidance with FirstBank for the year, as you've seen, is up 14% in NII. Inside of that, to your question, PNC stand-alone, we're somewhere between 7.5% and 8%, which is comfortably above the $1 billion that we said in the earnings call in the third quarter. So we feel good about it. I mean, obviously, those are pretty good numbers, and that's helping us generate the positive operating leverage that looks very comparable to last year, and that's very good.
當然。因此,正如您所看到的,我們對 FirstBank 今年的業績預期是淨利息收入成長 14%。至於你問的 PNC 獨立業務,我們的成長率在 7.5% 到 8% 之間,遠高於我們在第三季財報電話會議上所說的 10 億美元。所以我們對此感到很滿意。我的意思是,很明顯,這些數字相當不錯,這有助於我們產生與去年非常接近的積極經營槓桿,這非常好。
Scott Siefers - Analyst
Scott Siefers - Analyst
Okay. Good. And then I was glad to see you guys were able to sort of clean up last quarter's noise related to the deposits with lower cost this quarter as we'd hoped. Maybe you could spend just a quick second on how you see deposit costs playing out for, say, next 50 basis points or so of Fed funds rate cuts that we've got kind of baked into the guide?
好的。好的。然後我很高興地看到,正如我們所希望的那樣,你們能夠以較低的成本在本季度清理掉上個季度與存款相關的噪音。您能否花一點時間談談您認為,如果聯準會接下來降息 50 個基點左右(我們已經在指南中考慮到了這一點),存款成本將會如何變化?
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. And just to clarify for those who weren't on the third quarter call, that was a mix shift in terms of the commercial deposits that we added that were outsized at the time just to level set that. As we go into '26, we continue to see rate paid coming down. We'll see that in the first quarter, even if we don't get a rate cut, which we don't expect just simply because the December rate cut will play through. And we're calling for two rate cuts, one in July and one in September. And when the -- if and when those occur, rate paid will continue to go down.
是的。為了讓那些沒有參加第三季電話會議的人明白,我們調整了商業存款的組合,當時商業存款規模過大,我們調整了存款組合以平衡市場。進入2026年,我們將繼續看到繳費率下降。我們將在第一季看到這種情況,即使我們沒有獲得降息,我們也不指望降息,原因很簡單,因為 12 月的降息效果還會持續下去。我們呼籲兩次降息,一次在7月,一次在9月。而當這種情況發生時——如果這種情況真的發生的話——所支付的費率將繼續下降。
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
But I guess I mean it's worth mentioning independent of whether we're right or wrong on the timing of those two rate cuts, it doesn't impact our outcome on NII materially one way or the other.
但我想說的是,無論我們對這兩個降息時機的判斷是對是錯,都值得一提,因為這不會對我們關於淨利息收入(NII)的結果產生實質的影響。
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
That's right.
這是正確的。
Scott Siefers - Analyst
Scott Siefers - Analyst
Thanks Rob for taking the question.
謝謝羅布回答這個問題。
Operator
Operator
And next question today is coming from Betsy Graseck from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now live.
今天的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的貝齊·格拉塞克。您的線路已開通。
Betsy Graseck - Analyst
Betsy Graseck - Analyst
Bill, could I ask you to unpack a little bit. In your prepared remarks, you commented very quickly on the investments that you've been making. We'll know in the branches and in technology, et cetera. Could you give us a sense as to how far along in this investment trajectory you are? I mean, I know technology is ongoing, right? But like it was pretty quick, and I was hoping we could unpack a little bit where you are relative to where you want to be and how FirstBank integrates into all that?
比爾,能請你稍微解釋一下嗎?在你的發言稿中,你只是簡單地談到了你一直在進行的投資。我們將從各個部門和技術部門等方面了解情況。您能否大致說明一下,您在這項投資計畫中進展到了什麼階段?我的意思是,我知道科技是不斷發展的,對吧?但感覺時間過得很快,我希望我們能稍微探討一下你目前所處的位置與你想要達到的目標之間的差距,以及FirstBank是如何融入這一切中的?
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I guess in its simplest form, our new initiative CapEx expense, all embedded in our guidance is higher this year than it's ever been. I think depending on how you want to look at tech spend, we maybe spend $3.5 billion and it's going to go up 10% plus or minus through the year. And inside of that, AI is 20% of that increase, beyond what we spend already. Most of it is just the number of things we have to drive momentum, right?
是的。簡單來說,我們今年的新措施資本支出(已全部納入我們的預期)比以往任何時候都高。我認為,這取決於你如何看待科技支出,我們可能會支出 35 億美元,而且這一數字在一年內可能會增加 10% 左右。其中,人工智慧佔成長的 20%,這還不包括我們目前的支出。大部分問題都只是我們用來推動發展勢頭的因素,對吧?
So we're -- with the ongoing branch build, and that will continue. So it's putting us in front of more clients. rebuild of our payments capabilities. Think of it as along the same lines of the rebuild of our online banking where we're breaking it down to micro services. So it's more resilient and faster to be able to change modernization of our data centers. So we're always on.
所以,我們正在進行分支構建,而且這種情況還會繼續下去。因此,這將使我們接觸到更多客戶。我們將重建支付功能。你可以把它想像成我們重建網路銀行的過程,我們把它拆分成微服務。因此,我們的資料中心現代化改造更具韌性,速度也更快。所以我們一直處於待命狀態。
All of our applications will be cloud native and will run in a synchronous transmission between backup data centers. Continued investments in people in the new markets, including investments in people inside of the Colorado, Arizona markets to take advantage of the FirstBank footprint. All of that's inside of the guide we gave. And all of that, the ability to do that and still control expenses kind of comes on the back of this continuous improvement program, which we're going to execute again in '26 and a lot of the savings in '26 coming out of our automation efforts, some of which are related to AI, but some of which are just straight up automation to allow us to continue the investment profile we've had for years.
我們所有的應用程式都將是雲端原生應用,並在備份資料中心之間進行同步傳輸。持續投資新市場的人才,包括投資於科羅拉多州和亞利桑那州市場內的人才,以充分利用 FirstBank 的業務覆蓋範圍。所有這些內容都在我們提供的指南裡。而這一切,以及能夠做到這一點並控制支出的能力,都得益於我們持續改善的計畫。我們將在 2026 年再次執行該計劃,2026 年節省的資金將來自我們的自動化工作,其中一些與人工智慧有關,但有些只是純粹的自動化,使我們能夠繼續保持多年來的投資模式。
Betsy Graseck - Analyst
Betsy Graseck - Analyst
And is that savings in the form of system savings, headcount savings, I mean I'm assuming it's a mix, but how much is headcount driving that?
這些節省是以系統節省、人員節省的形式實現的嗎?我的意思是,我假設兩者兼而有之,但人員節省在其中起多大作用呢?
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
House savings is a piece of it. The most obvious example there is simply using agentic AI for coding, but a lot of it is contract savings in tech as we shut down old systems and roll in new systems. So we're shutting down redundant things and running on a single one, trying to think inside of what's in that [inaudible].
購屋儲蓄是其中的一部分。最明顯的例子就是使用智能體人工智慧進行編碼,但很多時候,隨著我們關閉舊系統並引入新系統,技術方面的合約成本也會降低。所以我們正在關閉冗餘的系統,只保留一個系統運行,並努力思考這個系統內部究竟有什麼功能。[聽不清楚]。
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Well, I would say, Betsy, just to jump in. I mean the continuous improvement program is something that we've had for a number of years that's in our DNA. And when we do our budgeting, every part of the company is expected to contribute some CIP savings, which is just efficiency off of our increasingly larger spend. So it is as broad-based as it could be.
嗯,我想說,貝齊,我先插一句。我的意思是,持續改善計畫是我們多年來一直推行的,它已經融入了我們的企業文化。在進行預算時,公司的每個部門都需要為資本投入節約做出貢獻,這只是為了提高我們日益增長的支出的效率。所以它的基礎非常廣泛。
Betsy Graseck - Analyst
Betsy Graseck - Analyst
Yes. CIP is decades long, right?
是的。CIP計畫要持續幾十年,對吧?
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
That's right.
這是正確的。
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
But to give you an idea of the scope, maybe this will help, between 22 and 25, we were able to get 40 points of operating leverage through automation in our retail operations and care center operations. Sorry, we were able to get -- it's probably closer to 30. When we look at AI between 25 and 30, we see another 40 points of operating leverage. We have 171 different opportunities outlined and $1.4 billion of total addressable spend that we're able to go after through. I mean we use the term AI, but I just think of it as the same march that we've been along with automation that has given us all those efficiencies between 22 and 25.
但為了讓您對規模有所了解,也許這會有所幫助,在 22 到 25 年間,我們透過零售營運和護理中心營運的自動化,獲得了 40 點的營運槓桿。抱歉,我們查到的結果是——可能接近 30。當我們觀察人工智慧在 25 到 30 之間的表現時,我們發現營運槓桿作用又提高了 40 個百分點。我們已經列出了 171 個不同的機會,並且有 14 億美元的潛在支出可供我們爭取。我的意思是,我們使用「人工智慧」這個詞,但我認為它和我們一直以來所經歷的自動化進程是一樣的,自動化為我們帶來了22到25年間的所有效率提升。
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
And all of that is in our guidance.
所有這些都在我們的指導方針之內。
Betsy Graseck - Analyst
Betsy Graseck - Analyst
Okay, thanks so much.
好的,非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Next question is coming from Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now live.
下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的傑拉德·卡西迪。您的線路已開通。
Gerard Cassidy - Analyst
Gerard Cassidy - Analyst
Thank you, good morning. To follow up in your comment about the ROTCE coming out of the end of this year, many companies now give out these ROTCE targets. Obviously, you don't. But I'd like to get your insights on just how you guys approach looking at ROTCE and how you manage it?
謝謝,早安。關於您提到的今年年底即將實施的 ROTCE 目標,現在很多公司都會給出這些 ROTCE 目標。顯然,你並不知道。但我很想了解你們是如何看待和管理ROTCE的?
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sure. No. Thanks, Gerard. And it relates to John's question there. We don't have an explicit target because we've always viewed it as an outcome rather than something that we manage to.
當然。不。謝謝你,傑拉德。這與約翰提出的問題有關。我們沒有明確的目標,因為我們一直把它看作是一種結果,而不是我們努力實現的事情。
That said, when you take a look at our levels, comparable appears they're pretty good. And we're pretty optimistic in terms of what we're going to be able to do in '26 and beyond. So we see the level that we're at now, which is pretty good at 17% going to 18% this time next year and then higher from there. So we watch it. Everything that we do contributes to it, but we just don't start out with a target.
也就是說,從我們的等級來看,同級選手的表現相當不錯。我們對2026年及以後能達成的成就相當樂觀。所以我們看到,我們目前的水平相當不錯,為 17%,明年這個時候將達到 18%,然後還會更高。所以我們就看。我們所做的一切都有助於實現這個目標,但我們一開始並沒有設定目標。
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. And part of the issue with the target, it's so dependent on operating environment in terms of shape of the yield curve and credit costs. And it's also dependent on capital management. And I hate the idea of setting a target on return on capital and then imaging the capital itself to hit that return. They ought in some ways, be disconnected. We can always just -- we could always just drive our capital.
是的。目標價的問題之一在於,它非常依賴殖利率曲線的形狀和信貸成本等經營環境。這也取決於資本管理。我討厭設定資本報酬率目標,然後指望資本本身達到該報酬率的做法。在某些方面,他們應該彼此疏遠。我們總是可以——我們總是可以投入資金。
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
And That's where the variables are. So we saw that -- as an industry, we saw that in the last couple of years when negative AOCI showed up. Nobody thought that was a good thing, but it helped our ROTCE.
這就是變數所在。所以我們看到——作為一個行業,我們在過去幾年裡看到了這一點,當時 AOCI 出現了負值。沒人認為這是件好事,但它對我們的 ROTCE 有所幫助。
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, exactly.
是的,正是如此。
Gerard Cassidy - Analyst
Gerard Cassidy - Analyst
No, very helpful. And then Bill and Rob, with the chance of being called the [inaudible] again, as I was on one of your peers peer calls earlier in the week about this question. I'll try to rephrase it. The setup for you folks and in your peers for 2026 looked really, really good. And for guys like all of us on the call that has been around a while, you always get nervous because we're bank guys.
不,非常有幫助。然後,比爾和羅布,有可能再次被稱作[聽不清楚],因為就在本週早些時候,我參加了你們同行的一次關於這個問題的電話會議。我試著換個說法。你們以及你們的同行們為 2026 年所做的準備看起來真的非常好。對於像我們這些在電話會議上待了一段時間的人來說,總是會感到緊張,因為我們都是銀行從業人員。
Can you look at any risks on the -- other than the obvious geopolitical risk, we get that, but what are you guys kind of looking at just to make sure that you don't get blindsided. I don't mean just for you guys, but just the industry gets kind of hit over the head with something that we don't expect.
除了顯而易見的地緣政治風險(我們明白這一點)之外,你們還能考慮哪些風險?為了確保不會措手不及,你們還會關注哪些方面?我指的不僅是你們,而是整個產業都會受到一些意想不到的打擊。
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
It has to be some exogenous variable because the base economy, I just don't see big cracks that are going to be realized in '26. So you get up every morning and you read a headline on credit card rates are on this or on that [inaudible] tonight. It could be anything, right? By the way, it could be good things, too. But the basic business of running the bank against the economy with customer demand and the health of the consumer, we have a lot of tailwinds this year, and it should be a great year for banks.
這一定是某種外生變量,因為就基礎經濟而言,我看不出2026年會出現什麼大的裂痕。所以你每天早上起來都會看到新聞標題,說信用卡利率今晚會是這樣或那樣[聽不清楚]。什麼都有可能,對吧?順便說一句,這也有可能是好事。但就銀行的基本業務而言,即在經濟狀況、客戶需求和消費者健康狀況的限制下運營銀行,今年我們有很多利好因素,對銀行業來說應該是個好年。
Gerard Cassidy - Analyst
Gerard Cassidy - Analyst
Agreed, appreciate it, thank you.
同意,非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Next question is coming from Erika Najarian from UBS. Your line is now live.
下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的Erika Najarian。您的線路已開通。
Erika Najarian - Analyst
Erika Najarian - Analyst
Hi, good morning. Maybe one for you, Bill. As we take a step back into the year, I think a lot of investors are contemplating the push pull in investing in mining centers versus regional banks. And maybe from your purview, as you think about the opportunities for regional banks, particularly in direct lending, which is just C&I lending or commercial lending. How much do you think potential Fed cuts, the leverage lending limits going away and sort of the certainty or better certainty in the macro, is that going to spur more direct lending opportunities for regional banks? Or are you agnostic to it relative to the cat market opportunity?
您好,早安。或許這件適合你,比爾。回顧今年,我認為許多投資人都在思考投資礦業中心與投資區域性銀行之間的優缺點。或許從您的角度來看,當您思考區域銀行的機會時,尤其是在直接貸款方面,也就是工商業貸款或商業貸款。您認為聯準會潛在的降息、槓桿貸款限制的取消以及宏觀經濟情勢的確定性(或更好的確定性)會在多大程度上刺激區域性銀行獲得更多直接貸款機會?或者,你對貓咪市場的機會持中立態度?
And also just remind us, your peers talked about significant advisory opportunities for 2026. And then just remind us how much of a SKU in advisory you may have in cap markets?
另外,也請提醒我們一下,您的同行們談到了 2026 年的重要諮詢機會。然後請您提醒我們,您在資本市場諮詢業務中可能擁有多少 SKU?
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Let me start by saying we're a national bank, not a regional bank. So I don't know what regional banks are going to do with the leverage lending guidance. What it does for us is allow us to make smart loans, not necessarily riskier loans. But basically, the guidance is written would actually capture a lot of things as leverage and high risk when they weren't. And by clearing that up, the ability to do some of our specialized businesses that are secured or that are first out increases pretty dramatically, and we're pretty excited by that.
首先我要說明的是,我們是一家全國性銀行,而不是一家區域銀行。所以我不知道區域銀行將如何應對槓桿貸款指導。它為我們帶來的是能夠發放明智的貸款,而不是風險更高的貸款。但基本上,該指南的措辭實際上會將許多並非槓桿和高風險的事物誤判為槓桿和高風險。透過澄清這一點,我們開展一些有保障或優先開展的專業業務的能力將大幅提高,我們對此感到非常興奮。
But it's not like an open -- we're not treating it like an open invitation to run out and take more risk. That's not what the -- that's not what the game is. On the advisory side, capital markets broadly did really well this year. As we go into next year, we -- it's not as large a percentage of our total company, perhaps as it is at the money centers, but the mixes aren't wildly different inside of that mix, we are more heavily weighted to advisory probably than the giant banks. And in that sense, Harris Williams backlog, their activity level through the fourth quarter is as high as it's ever been. So pretty optimistic about the opportunity set there.
但這並不代表我們可以放開手腳——我們並沒有把它當作一個公開的邀請,鼓勵大家去承擔更大的風險。遊戲的本質並非如此。從諮詢業務來看,今年資本市場整體表現非常出色。展望明年,雖然諮詢業務在我們公司總業務中所佔的比例可能不如在金融中心那麼大,但內部結構並沒有太大變化,我們可能比大型銀行更專注於諮詢業務。從這個意義上講,Harris Williams 的積壓訂單量,以及他們第四季度的業務活躍度,都達到了歷史最高水準。所以我對那裡的機會相當樂觀。
Erika Najarian - Analyst
Erika Najarian - Analyst
And just a follow-up question on the ROTCE. Obviously, I heard you lot and clear, 18% and going higher is better than your peers. And as I just take a step back, this is sort of a compound question, Bill. The way you answered the earlier question, it sounds like you don't want to necessarily just put targets out there because you want the flexibility for the capital allocation when there are growth opportunities, which makes sense. But also as we think about longer-term returns, is 18 plus sort of above through the cycle?
關於ROTCE,我還有一個後續問題。顯然,我聽到了你們的聲音,很清楚,18%甚至更高都比同齡人好。比爾,我退後一步來看,這其實是個複合問題。從你之前回答問題的方式來看,你似乎不想直接設定目標,因為你想在出現成長機會時靈活地進行資本配置,這很合理。但從長期回報的角度來看,18歲以上是否意味著已經度過了週期?
Or is that sort of closer to like a through-the-cycle range for a PNC all in? And just asking it this way because you're the JPMorgan of smaller national banks, and they have a through the cycle target?
或者說,這更像是 PNC 全面投入的整個週期範圍?我這樣問是因為你們就像小型全國性銀行中的摩根大通,而他們有一個貫穿整個週期的目標?
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Why don't we just kind of reason that out for a second, and it's not going to become a target. But if you assume for a second that we're running, I don't know where we are this quarter, 2.88 NIM or something and through [inaudible] and we run where? 2.50 NIM to 3 NIM?
我們不妨稍微分析一下,它不會成為攻擊目標的。但如果你假設我們這季度業績不錯,我不知道我們這季度的業績如何,2.88 NIM 或差不多,然後通過[聽不清],我們能跑到哪裡?2.50 NIM 到 3 NIM?
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. That's right.
是的。這是正確的。
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
And so let's say that accepts out interest rate volatility. And then let's assume for a second that our credit costs are running on the low side for -- through the cycle number. We probably have even upside, downside on the NIM from here. We have downside on the credit cost. So through the cycle, maybe slightly lower.
假設它接受利率波動。然後,讓我們假設一下,在整個週期內,我們的信貸成本處於較低水準。從目前的情況來看,淨利差的上漲和下跌空間可能相當。我們在信貸成本方面存在不利因素。所以,在整個週期中,可能會稍微下降。
However, as we plan out with the scale efficiencies we get through some of our cost initiatives and just client growth. It kind of offsets that. So the outcome -- the mechanical outcome that Rob talks about when you cross through 18% keep going. I mean I could show you on a piece of paper where it crosses 20 in the not-too-distant future. During that period of time, if credit normalizes and our charge-offs go up, double, we're not going to hit that, which is why we don't want to put that target out there.
然而,隨著我們透過一些成本控制措施和客戶成長來規劃規模效益,我們將會取得進展。這在某種程度上抵消了這種影響。所以結果——羅布所說的,當你越過 18% 時,機械性的結果就會發生,繼續前進。我的意思是,我可以在一張紙上指出它在不久的將來會在哪裡超過 20。在此期間,如果信貸恢復正常,而我們的壞帳率上升甚至翻倍,我們就無法實現這個目標,這就是為什麼我們不想把這個目標公佈出來的原因。
We're operating in a great space. It's elevated from our history. We ought to be able to keep it somewhere around here, but there's a lot of variables swinging around it. I don't want to make uneconomic choices to hit a target that was artificially created.
我們正處於一個非常好的環境。它超越了我們的歷史。我們應該能把它控制在這個範圍內,但影響因素很多。我不想為了達到人為設定的目標而做出不經濟的選擇。
Erika Najarian - Analyst
Erika Najarian - Analyst
That was very helpful, thank you guys.
這很有幫助,謝謝你們。
Operator
Operator
Next question is coming from Steven Chubak from Wolfe Research. Your line is now live.
下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak。您的線路已開通。
Steven Chubak - Analyst
Steven Chubak - Analyst
So I wanted to start with a discussion on the capital markets outlook. Bill, at a conference in December, you indicated you're starting to see increased capital markets activity, particularly in the middle market space. I was hoping you could just contextualize what you're seeing in terms of pipeline, how they compare to year ago levels. And just how you're thinking about growth in capital markets fees in the coming year, given the strong exit rate we saw in '25 as well as some of the factors driving more robust activity that you cited?
因此,我想先討論一下資本市場的前景。比爾,你在 12 月的一次會議上表示,你開始看到資本市場活動增加,尤其是在中端市場領域。我希望您能就您目前看到的銷售管道情況,以及它們與去年同期水平的比較,給出一些背景資訊。鑑於 2025 年強勁的退出率以及您提到的推動市場活動更加活躍的一些因素,您如何看待來年資本市場費用的成長?
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Maybe Rob can give you detail on our numbers. But before we go there, what I was referring to at that conference and has in fact, come to fruition is that the log jam and middle market investments, the willingness to do M&A, the willingness to take down credit to get a deal done has opened up where it was kind of on hold for a long period of time because of tariffs and people trying to figure out how they operate and they're afraid to buy into something when there was so much volatility and potential outcomes. We saw that kind of pipeline crack in the fourth quarter. You see it in there and it's real [inaudible] results. By the way, you would see it in our spot C&I loan numbers at the end of the year as we've just seen more activity on financings into acquisitions.
或許羅布可以提供你我們數據的詳細資訊。但在我們深入探討這個問題之前,我在那次會議上提到的,實際上已經實現的,是中端市場投資的停滯、併購的意願、以及為了完成交易而接受信貸的意願,都已經打破了這種停滯狀態。此前,由於關稅以及人們試圖弄清楚如何運作,並且由於市場波動性和潛在結果的不確定性,這些都處於停滯狀態。我們在第四季度看到了那種管道裂縫。你看,裡面有真實的[聽不清楚]結果。順便說一下,您會在我們年底的現貨商業和工業貸款數據中看到這一點,因為我們剛剛看到收購融資活動更加活躍。
Inside of our forecast, Rob, it isn't a sign, all that activity drives the rest of our capital markets activity. So when people are doing loans and deals, there's derivatives, there's bond issuance, there's loan syndication and so on and so forth.
羅布,就我們的預測而言,這並不是什麼訊號,所有這些活動都會影響我們其他的資本市場活動。所以當人們進行貸款和交易時,就會牽涉到衍生性商品、債券發行、銀團貸款等等。
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Just to finish that. So in terms of our outlook for '26 capital markets, we're expecting it to be up high single digits.
最後補充一下。因此,就我們對 2026 年資本市場的展望而言,我們預計將實現接近兩位數的成長。
Steven Chubak - Analyst
Steven Chubak - Analyst
Okay. Great. And then just a question on NIM. I know in the past, you've noted you could achieve north of 300 bps at some point in the coming year, acknowledging that, that's an output, do you feel like normalized NIM because you were alluding to this in your prior response, Bill, whether that could still settle in the low 300 bps range as you optimize wholesale funding, restrike the securities book, prosecute on some of the initiatives to grow operational deposits, including some mix shift from FirstBank. It feels like you can run sustainably above that for a bit, but just was hoping you could provide some context.
好的。偉大的。然後還有一個關於NIM的問題。我知道您過去曾指出,在未來一年中的某個時候,您可以實現 300 個基點以上的淨利差。您承認這是一個產出目標,比爾,您覺得隨著您優化批發融資、重組證券帳簿、推進一些增加營運存款的舉措(包括從 FirstBank 進行一些資產組合調整),標準化淨利差是否還能穩定在 300 個基點左右?因為您在先前的回覆中也提到了這一點。感覺你可以持續跑一段時間,但還是希望能得到一些背景資訊。
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Look, I think that's right, assuming we stay in an upward sloping yield curve in a similar environment. If we get into a world where we have 200 points of inversion, we're not going to be running at 3%.
我認為這是正確的,前提是我們能夠在類似的環境下保持殖利率曲線向上傾斜的趨勢。如果我們進入一個有 200 個反轉點的世界,我們的運行速度就不會達到 3%。
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
But our plans in '26 are to reach that 3% level in the second half of '26, somewhere during the third quarter, maybe the end of the third quarter.
但我們 2026 年的計畫是在 2026 年下半年,也就是第三季度,或第三季末,達到 3% 的水平。
Steven Chubak - Analyst
Steven Chubak - Analyst
That's right, thanks for taking my question.
沒錯,謝謝你回答我的問題。
Operator
Operator
Next question today is coming from Ken Usdin from Autonomous Research. Your line is now live.
今天的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Ken Usdin。您的線路已開通。
Ken Usdin - Analyst
Ken Usdin - Analyst
Good morning. Yes, just a follow-up on the last question. Thanks for giving the outlook on the capital market side. Rob, just with the moving parts of the FirstBank adds. I'm just wondering if you can kind of help us through just where you expect to have lead the fee growth, which obviously ended the year in almost all categories on a high note, thanks.
早安.是的,這是對上一個問題的後續問題。感謝您對資本市場的展望。羅布,只是FirstBank廣告的移動部件而已。我只是想請您幫忙分析一下,您預計在哪些方面會引領費用成長?顯然,今年幾乎所有類別都取得了不錯的成績,謝謝。
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, sure, Ken. So for the full year, we're saying non-interest income up 6%. In terms of the subcategories of that just in the order that we report them, we've got Asset Management up mid-single digits. As I just said, Capital Markets up high single digits, card and cash management up mid- to high single digits and then lending deposit services and mortgages each up low single digits. And then to add to that, for the full year is $100 million of what are basically FirstBank's fees.
當然可以,肯。因此,我們預計全年非利息收入將成長 6%。就這些子類別而言,僅以我們報告的順序來看,資產管理的成長幅度為個位數中段。正如我剛才所說,資本市場成長了接近兩位數,信用卡和現金管理成長了中高個位數,而貸款存款服務和抵押貸款都成長了接近兩位數。此外,全年還有 1 億美元,基本上是 FirstBank 的各項費用。
When we get past integration, we'll be able to put that $100 million into each of those categories. But at the moment, it's just simply an add-on. So you put all that together, that's the up 6%.
完成整合後,我們就可以把這 1 億美元投入上述各個類別。但目前,它只是一個附加功能。所以把所有這些因素加起來,就是漲了 6%。
Ken Usdin - Analyst
Ken Usdin - Analyst
Okay. And I guess, same question, I don't know if you're able to do it or willing, but is there any way to help us kind of understand where the the FirstBank NII contribution is inside the total NII.
好的。我想問同樣的問題,我不知道您是否能夠或願意這樣做,但有沒有辦法幫助我們了解 FirstBank 的 NII 貢獻在總 NII 中的位置?
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, sure. So [inaudible] came up a question earlier. So we're saying up 14%, inside of that PNC is 7% to 8% of that.
當然可以。所以[聽不清楚]之前提出了一個問題。所以,我們說上漲了 14%,其中 PNC 銀行佔了 7% 到 8%。
Ken Usdin - Analyst
Ken Usdin - Analyst
Okay. And that will include, obviously, all the purchase accounting benefits.
好的。這顯然包括所有採購會計方面的好處。
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
So that's right. Yes, that's right. You got it, Ken.
沒錯。是的,沒錯。明白了,肯。
Ken Usdin - Analyst
Ken Usdin - Analyst
Okay, got it, thanks.
好的,明白了,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Next question is coming from Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo. Your line is now live.
下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克梅奧。您的線路已開通。
Mike Mayo - Analyst
Mike Mayo - Analyst
I'm going to start with data, a very simple question, and then I'll have a more complex question. But what's the difference between a national bank and a regional bank? Because when you answered the prior question, you said we're a national -- I know you're a national Main Street bank, and you had that position for several years now. But it seems like there's an important distinction in your mind, whether it's for growth or efficiency or returns or brand. So if you could elaborate on that.
我先從數據著手,提出一個很簡單的問題,然後再提出一個更複雜的問題。但國家銀行和地區性銀行有什麼差別呢?因為您在回答上一個問題時說我們是一家全國性的——我知道你們是一家全國性的街頭銀行,而且你們擔任這個職位已經好幾年了。但你似乎認為這其中有一個重要的區別,無論是為了成長、效率、回報或品牌。如果您能詳細說明一下就太好了。
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
I think maybe the distinction is as much aspiration as it is where we are from the starting point. I mean we are national in terms of our presence, both with C&I and retail, we're across the country. But more importantly, perhaps, is the strategic direction and belief that ultimately to succeed, particularly with the retail platform, you have to have a national and ubiquitous presence and share in each market that allows you a fair fight. I think the distinction between that a regional bank, a regional bank that's trying to protect its moat in a shrinking market as the large banks in PNC come into their market is a tough place to be. And that's why I draw that distinction.
我認為,這種差異或許既在於我們的抱負,也在於我們從哪裡起步。我的意思是,就我們的業務範圍而言,我們是一家全國性企業,無論是工商業還是零售業,我們的業務都遍布全國。但更重要的是,或許是策略方向和信念,即最終要想取得成功,尤其是在零售平台上,你必須在每個市場擁有全國性和無處不在的影響力和份額,才能進行公平競爭。我認為,區域性銀行與那些試圖在市場萎縮、大型銀行(如 PNC 銀行)進入市場時保護自身護城河的區域性銀行之間的區別在於,後者處境艱難。這就是我做出這種區分的原因。
Mike Mayo - Analyst
Mike Mayo - Analyst
All right. I guess you're saying you still target like the 30 largest MSAs you can shift resources and people and attention as you see opportunities. You don't have to just defend a few of them. I guess, is that what you're saying?
好的。我猜你的意思是,你仍然以最大的 30 個大都會區為目標,然後根據機會調整資源、人員和注意力。你不必只為他們中的幾個人辯護。我猜,你是這個意思吧?
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I don't think anybody has an ability to defend home turf here. We -- the branch builds that are going on with the giant banks and ourselves and at least one other of the smaller banks in the country, we're coming into your market. If you're not coming into our market to come fight us, we're coming to your market to come fight you, and we're going to get some percentage of your market as is JP and BofA, and ultimately, if you're not growing, you're shrinking. So perhaps it's just a nuance in strategy or the realization of long-term survivability at least in our view is dependent on the ability to take the fight to all the markets in the U.S. and win.
是的。我認為這裡沒有人有能力捍衛主場。我們——包括大型銀行、我們自己以及國內至少另一家小型銀行在內,正在興建分支機構,我們將進入你們的市場。如果你不來我們的市場和我們競爭,我們就會來你的市場和你競爭,我們會像摩根大通和美國銀行一樣,從你那裡奪取一部分市場份額,最終,如果你不成長,你就是在萎縮。所以,這或許只是策略上的細微差別,或者說,至少在我們看來,長期生存能力的實現取決於能否在美國所有市場競爭並取得勝利。
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
A national platform.
一個國家級平台。
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes.
是的。
Mike Mayo - Analyst
Mike Mayo - Analyst
And then as a follow-up to that then. So if I heard you rest, you have your ongoing continuous improvement program. And as part of that, you have record investment spend in 2026, record tech spend, record AI spend, and even with that, you have 400 basis points of positive optimum leverage in your guide. So I guess even with you doing all that, are you spending enough given the higher level of competition from the bigger banks?
然後,作為後續行動。所以,如果我沒聽錯的話,你還在休息,看來你正在進行持續改善計畫。作為其中的一部分,你們在 2026 年實現了創紀錄的投資支出、創紀錄的技術支出和創紀錄的人工智慧支出,即便如此,你們的指南中仍然有 400 個基點的正向最優槓桿。所以我想,即使你做了所有這些,考慮到來自大型銀行的更激烈的競爭,你的支出是否足夠?
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I think we are. I mean, part of what you spend is what you can achieve. So you push too hard, you start wasting money. For the places where we compete, Mike, so you think about what we do in wealth or retail or our C&I middle market, smaller large corporate and related product capabilities, I think our tech spend is at least on par.
是的。我認為我們是。我的意思是,你花的錢,一部分決定了你能獲得什麼。所以你用力過猛,就會開始浪費錢。麥克,就我們參與競爭的領域而言,想想我們在財富管理、零售、中型企業市場、規模較小的大型企業以及相關產品能力方面所做的事情,我認為我們的技術支出至少與競爭對手持平。
And I think our product set is more than competitive. And I think our core infrastructure as it relates to running in everything being cloud native and built off of micro services and the ability to build products is as good as anybody. Where we lose right, on tech spend is some of our larger friends who've reported so far, they could choose to go build another Visa or MasterCard or Stripe or Shopify, right?
我認為我們的產品組合極具競爭力。我認為,我們的核心基礎設施,無論是在雲端原生架構下運行,還是基於微服務構建,以及構建產品的能力,都和任何人一樣出色。我們在科技支出方面損失的,正是我們一些規模較大的朋友,他們目前為止的業績報告顯示,他們可能會選擇去創建另一個 Visa、MasterCard、Stripe 或 Shopify,對吧?
They could choose to build a whole another business inside of their existing operating platform, where what we're doing with our tech spend is optimizing the businesses we're in today. And I think that is the big difference.
他們可以選擇在現有的營運平台內建立一個全新的業務,而我們則利用技術支出來優化我們目前所從事的業務。我認為這就是最大的區別。
Mike Mayo - Analyst
Mike Mayo - Analyst
All right, thank you.
好的,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our next question is coming from Saul Martinez from HSBC. Your line is now live.
(操作員說明)我們的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Saul Martinez。您的線路已開通。
Saul Martinez - Analyst
Saul Martinez - Analyst
Wanted to ask about loan growth and the 8% guidance for growth in average loans it seems to imply still a pretty fairly modest growth on an organic basis. If you're stripping out FirstBank, I get to something in the neighborhood of about 3%. And correct me if that math is wrong, you obviously expressed some optimism about C&I picking up, CRE stabilizing here. So that headwind is mitigated. I think you still probably have some headwinds in [resi], but you just could walk me through some of the assumptions that are embedded in the loan growth and whether there's an element of conservatism built into that.
我想問一下貸款成長情況,8%的平均貸款成長預期似乎意味著有機成長仍然相當溫和。如果剔除 FirstBank,我得到的結果大約在 3% 左右。如果我算錯了請糾正我,你顯然對工商業復甦和商業房地產穩定表示樂觀。這樣就能減輕逆風的影響。我認為您在 [resi] 方面可能仍然面臨一些不利因素,但您能否向我解釋貸款增長中隱含的一些假設,以及其中是否包含保守因素。
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. No, that's a good question. So we're calling for our full year forecast 8% average loan growth, which does include FirstBank, PNC on a stand-alone, we're at approximately 4% loan growth. So you have that number there. And all the categories you mentioned, that's what we see, too.
是的。不,這確實是個好問題。因此,我們預測全年平均貸款成長率為 8%,其中包括 FirstBank 和 PNC 銀行,單獨來看,PNC 銀行的貸款成長率為 4%。所以你那裡有這個數字。您提到的所有類別,我們也都看到了。
So we still see some momentum coming in here in terms of C&I. Ideally, real estate will inflect at some point here in the first half of '26. On the consumer side, we don't have a whole lot of growth built in. We do it in auto card. But as you mentioned, resi mortgage as part of our deliberate management is going down a bit.
所以,我們仍然看到工商業領域有一些成長勢頭。理想情況下,房地產市場將在 2026 年上半年的某個時候出現轉機。在消費者方面,我們並沒有太多的成長空間。我們用自動刷卡的方式進行。但正如您所提到的,作為我們刻意管理的一部分,住宅抵押貸款有所下降。
Saul Martinez - Analyst
Saul Martinez - Analyst
Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then the only other question I have is just more of a clarification on the fee guidance. The numbers you gave, Rob, for asset management cap markets in the different categories. That's on a stand-alone basis and then you would overlay about $100 million from FirstBank and that will -- that $100 million would get -- would fall in those categories in some distribution. Is that correct?
好的。好的。那很有幫助。我唯一的另一個問題就是想進一步了解費用指南。羅布,你給的這些數字,是不同類別資產管理資本市場的數據。這是獨立運作的,然後你還要加上 FirstBank 大約 1 億美元,這 1 億美元將會——這 1 億美元將會——按照某種分配方式落入這些類別中。是這樣嗎?
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. That's exactly right. And FirstBank didn't have a whole lot of fees there. So that $100 million getting headed to a $9 billion plus number.
是的。完全正確。而且FirstBank在那裡的手續費並不高。所以,那1億美元最後會變成超過90億美元。
Saul Martinez - Analyst
Saul Martinez - Analyst
Okay, thank you so much.
好的,非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Next question is coming from Chris McGratty from KBW. Your line is now live.
下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Chris McGratty。您的線路已開通。
Christopher McGratty - Analyst
Christopher McGratty - Analyst
Good morning. Rob, on the dollar of contribution from First Bank in 2027, I guess where could you be positively surprised? I know it's early.
早安.羅布,關於第一銀行在 2027 年的捐款額,我想你還能有什麼驚喜呢?我知道現在還早。
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
I would say the synergies on the revenue side. I do -- I think there's a lot of excitement. There's a lot of enthusiasm. FirstBank has excellent relationships across those communities. And some of those relationships are likely, I would think, to utilize PNC products and services that FirstBank didn't have. So we don't have a whole ton of that built into it. But obviously, we find it appealing.
我認為是營收的綜效。我覺得──大家都很興奮。大家熱情高漲。第一銀行與這些社區建立了良好的關係。我認為,其中一些客戶可能會使用 PNC 提供的 FirstBank 沒有的產品和服務。所以,我們並沒有在它內部內建很多這樣的功能。但很顯然,我們覺得它很有吸引力。
Christopher McGratty - Analyst
Christopher McGratty - Analyst
Okay. Great. And then related to the high single-digit capital markets expectations. You talked in your prepared remarks about the log jam just being opened. Is this high single digit, the full potential that you think the team on the field can achieve? Or is there still an element of your holding back for a little bit of uncertainty?
好的。偉大的。然後,這與資本市場對高個位數成長的預期有關。你在事先準備好的演講稿中談到,堵塞的木材剛剛被疏通了。這是個位數高分嗎?你認為場上這支球隊能發揮的全部潛能嗎?或者,你是否仍然因為一些不確定性而有所保留?
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
That's what we think we can achieve as it was all our guidance.
這就是我們認為我們能夠取得的成就,因為我們全程都遵循著自己的指導。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is coming from Matt O'Connor from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now live.
下一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。您的線路已開通。
Matthew O'Connor - Analyst
Matthew O'Connor - Analyst
I was hoping you could update us on your interest rate positioning and I guess, post the closing of FirstBank, I don't think that would have impacted that much, but just kind of just a full picture of how you're positioned from here for changes in absolute rates?
我希望您能更新一下您的利率策略,我想,在第一銀行倒閉之後,這應該不會產生太大影響,但還是想了解一下您目前針對絕對利率變化的策略概況?
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sure, Matt. That came up a little bit earlier. FirstBank doesn't change a whole lot. Where we've been for some time, which is largely neutral. So our NII guide isn't reliant on rate cuts. So if they happen or they don't happen, that's pretty much on the margin.
當然可以,馬特。剛才也提到這一點。第一銀行並沒有發生太大變化。我們過去一段時間一直保持中立的態度。因此,我們的淨利息收入指引並不依賴降息。所以,這些事發生還是不發生,基本上都只是小機率事件。
Matthew O'Connor - Analyst
Matthew O'Connor - Analyst
Okay. And then I guess there's a lot of moving pieces as we think about the rate curve. I mean there's obviously focused to lower, I guess, both the low end and the short end and the longer term. And [inaudible] a few years since we've had some volatility. So I'm just wondering how you're thinking about protecting yourself from maybe unusual movements in rates and how that impact your thinking of subsidies book?
好的。然後,我想當我們考慮利率曲線時,會發現有很多因素在起作用。我的意思是,很明顯,重點在於降低,我想,既包括短期和長期的低端市場,也包括短期市場。(聽不清楚)過去幾年我們經歷了一些波動。所以我想知道您是如何考慮保護自己免受利率異常波動的影響,以及這會對您制定補貼計劃的想法產生怎樣的影響?
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
So you should think about our book at least in the near term, as we are kind of indifferent to the front end of the curve. So we're just balance out on wherever Fed funds would sit between gains and losses on loan yield and deposit gains losses and so forth. We are exposed on the reinvestment rate of fixed rate, assuming we don't change the duration of the balance sheet, right? We have assumptions built in there on the forward curve on where we can reinvest rolling off money. We have for -- this is an ongoing program, and we did this in '25, and we've done a lot of it in '26, we lock those forward maturities at opportunistic times with forward starting swaps, right?
所以,至少在短期內,你應該考慮我們的書,因為我們對曲線的前端部分不太在意。所以,我們只是在聯邦基金利率介於貸款收益率和存款收益率的盈虧之間時進行平衡,等等。假設我們不改變資產負債表的久期,那麼我們就面臨固定利率再投資率的風險,對嗎?我們在遠期曲線中內建了一些假設,即我們可以將到期資金再投資到哪裡。我們已經——這是一個持續進行的計劃,我們在 2025 年就做了這件事,2026 年也做了很多,我們會在合適的時機通過遠期起始互換來鎖定這些遠期到期日,對吧?
So when we kind of say, look, we're pretty good independent on what rates does it's because we've taken advantage and locked a lot of forward.
所以當我們說,我們基本上不受利率走勢的影響時,是因為我們已經利用並鎖定了許多遠期合約。
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
And Matt, you know that -- we started that at the beginning of last year. So that's unchanged.
馬特,你知道的——我們從去年年初就開始做這件事了。所以這一點沒有改變。
Matthew O'Connor - Analyst
Matthew O'Connor - Analyst
Alright, thank you.
好的,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Next question is coming from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America. Your line is now live.
下一個問題來自美國銀行的易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉。您的線路已開通。
Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst
Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst
Good morning. I guess, Bill, just going back to the long-term competitiveness of the franchise. As you think about where some of the financing activity, revenue pools are shifting, just talk to us, when you think about investment spend, like should PNCB adding a lot more in terms of capital markets capabilities and on the wealth management front. Just how do you think about those two businesses, in particular, either for '26 and over the medium term?
早安.我想,比爾,這最終還是要回到球隊的長期競爭力上來。當您思考一些融資活動和收入池正在轉移到哪裡時,請與我們交流,當您考慮投資支出時,例如PNCB是否應該在資本市場能力和財富管理方面增加更多投入。您如何看待這兩家企業,特別是對於 2026 年以及中期發展而言?
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Good question. So a couple of things. we're focused on a couple of things we're not focused on. Focused on is the size of the wallet of private capital entities, which we do a tremendous amount of business with today, either through lending and asset-based lending or the business with Harris Williams or Solebury or Capcom Lines or on and on and on, getting better organized in covering them as a client versus having product-centric coverage, I think, opens up a big opportunity going forward. Inside the capital market space, in particular, investments in places we have grown through the years are -- we've had derivatives in syndicated loan syndications and FX forever and that grows with our client base.
問得好。所以有兩件事。我們關注的重點是幾件事,而我們沒有關注其他幾件事。我們關注的是私人資本實體的資金規模,我們目前與他們開展了大量的業務,無論是透過貸款和資產抵押貸款,還是與 Harris Williams、Solebury 或 Capcom Lines 等公司的業務等等。我認為,更好地組織起來,以客戶為中心來覆蓋他們,而不是以產品為中心,這將為未來帶來巨大的機會。尤其是在資本市場領域,我們多年來不斷發展的投資領域包括——我們一直都有銀團貸款衍生性商品和外匯交易,隨著客戶群的成長,這些投資也在不斷成長。
We have built from scratch a fairly good and growing fixed income business, largely high grade, moving at the margin to higher yield. We have invested and don't intend to invest into the equities business. I think that is a business that is going to be completely driven by giant scale players and automation and not a place where there's going to be big margins for somebody like us. And so I think we'll continue to grow that business and invest in people, but I don't think we need to buy anything to do it. I think it's investing in research at the margin, salespeople at the margin and making sure that our bankers covering our clients are aware of our capabilities on the debt syndication side.
我們從零開始建立了一個相當不錯且不斷成長的固定收益業務,主要以高等級產品為主,並逐步朝向更高收益率的方向發展。我們已經投資了股票業務,並且不打算繼續投資。我認為這個行業將完全由大型企業和自動化驅動,像我們這樣的公司將無法從中獲得豐厚的利潤。所以我認為我們會繼續發展這項業務,投資於人才,但我認為我們不需要為此收購任何東西。我認為關鍵在於增加對邊際研究和邊際銷售人員的投入,並確保我們負責客戶的銀行家了解我們在銀團貸款方面的能力。
But no, we would no giant shifts to do anything there other than continue the trajectory we've been on. I should know this number, right? What's the total annual number that we make out of our collective cap? What do we make in '25 in our total...
但是,我們不會做出任何重大改變,只會繼續沿著我們一直在走的路線前進。我應該知道這個號碼,對吧?我們每年從集體預算中獲得的總金額是多少?我們在 2025 年總共賺了多少錢?
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
In total capital, a couple of billion.
總資本數十億。
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I mean it's a big business for us. People tend to say, "Oh, that Harris Williams". Harris Williams is a piece of it. We do an awful lot of capital markets business for their clients.
是的。我的意思是,這對我們來說是一筆大生意。人們常說:“哦,是那個哈里斯·威廉姆斯。”哈里斯威廉斯是其中的一份子。我們為他們的客戶做了大量的資本市場業務。
Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst
Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst
That was helpful, Bill. And just one other question. There's been obviously a lot of discussion around stable coins, interest payments, including this week. And what you're seeing is just the influence that the crypto industry has in DC. You've dabbled a little bit in terms of partnerships with Coinbase.
這很有幫助,比爾。還有一個問題。顯然,包括本週在內,圍繞穩定幣和利息支付的討論很多。你現在看到的正是加密貨幣產業在華盛頓特區的影響力。你們也曾與 Coinbase 有過一些合作嘗試。
Just give us your sense around how you're following this legislation whether or not you think there is a risk to industry deposits and how shareholders of banks should think about it?
請您談談您對這項立法的理解,您是否認為這會對行業存款構成風險,以及銀行股東應該如何看待此事?
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
That's a good question. So the fight right now in D.C. is over some terminology in the Genius Act that they're trying to fix with the CLARITY Act with respect to whether rewards count is interest paid on stable points, which was forbidden in the Genius Act. As a practical matter, a stablecoin was created and is marketed and touted as a payment mechanism that makes payments more efficient. That remains to be seen, but it isn't marketed nor is it regulated as an investment vehicle.
這是個好問題。所以,目前華盛頓特區的爭論焦點在於《天才法案》中的一些術語,他們正試圖透過《CLARITY法案》來解決這些問題,即獎勵是否算是穩定積分的利息,而《天才法案》禁止這種做法。從實際角度來看,穩定幣被創造出來,並被宣傳為一種使支付更有效率的支付機制。這一點還有待觀察,但它既沒有作為投資工具進行銷售,也沒有受到監管。
And I think if they actually want to pay interest on it, then they ought to go through the same process, then it looks to me an awful lot like a government money market fund.
我認為,如果他們真的想支付利息,那麼他們就應該遵循同樣的程序,這樣一來,在我看來,它就非常像一個政府貨幣市場基金了。
So I think banks are sitting here saying, if you want to be a money market fund, go ahead and be a money market fund. If you want to be a payment mechanism, be a payment mechanism, but money market funds shouldn't be payment mechanisms and you shouldn't pay interest. And the crypto industry has a lot of lobbying power to say, no, we want it all. but we'll see how this plays out.
所以我認為銀行現在的想法是,如果你想成為貨幣市場基金,那就去做貨幣市場基金。如果你想成為支付機制,那就去做支付機制,但貨幣市場基金不該成為支付機制,也不該支付利息。加密貨幣產業擁有強大的遊說能力,他們完全可以說,不,我們想要全部。但我們拭目以待,看看事情最終會如何發展。
Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst
Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst
Alright, thank you.
好的,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Bryan for any further closing comments.
我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把發言權交還給布萊恩,讓他做最後的總結發言。
Bryan Gill - Executive Vice President, Director of Investor Relations
Bryan Gill - Executive Vice President, Director of Investor Relations
Well, thank you all for joining our call today and your interest in PNC. And please feel free to reach out to the IR team if you have any follow-up questions. Thanks.
感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議,也感謝你們對 PNC 的關注。如果您有任何後續問題,請隨時聯絡投資者關係團隊。謝謝。
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
William Demchak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, everybody.
謝謝大家。
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Robert Reilly - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.
謝謝。今天的電話會議和網路直播到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路了,祝您有美好的一天。感謝您今天的參與。