美光科技 (MU) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Micron's Third Quarter 2023 Financial Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's program is being recorded.

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加美光科技 2023 年第三季度財務電話會議。 （操作員指示）提醒一下，今天的節目正在錄製中。

And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Farhan Ahmad, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想介紹一下今天節目的主持人，投資者關係副總裁法爾漢·艾哈邁德 (Farhan Ahmad)。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, and welcome to Micron Technology's Fiscal Third Quarter 2023 Financial Conference Call. On the call with me today are Sanjay Mehrotra, our President and CEO; and Mark Murphy, our CFO.

謝謝，歡迎參加美光科技 2023 年第三季度財務電話會議。今天與我通話的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Sanjay Mehrotra；和我們的首席財務官馬克·墨菲。

Today's call is being webcast from our Investor Relations site at investors.micron.com including audio and slides. In addition, the press release detailing our quarterly results have been posted on our website, along with the prepared remarks for this call.

今天的電話會議通過我們的投資者關係網站 Investors.micron.com 進行網絡直播，包括音頻和幻燈片。此外，詳細介紹季度業績的新聞稿以及為本次電話會議準備的發言稿已發佈在我們的網站上。

Today's discussion of the financial results is presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures can be found on our website. We encourage you to visit our website at micron.com throughout the quarter for the most current information on the company, including information on the financial conferences that we may be attending. You can also follow us on Twitter @MicronTech.

除非另有說明，今天對財務業績的討論是在非公認會計準則財務基礎上進行的。您可以在我們的網站上找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的調節表。我們鼓勵您在整個季度訪問我們的網站 micron.com，以獲取有關公司的最新信息，包括我們可能參加的財務會議的信息。您還可以在 Twitter 上關注我們@MicronTech。

As a reminder, the matters we are discussing today include forward-looking statements regarding market demand and supply, our expected results and other matters. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made today. We refer you to the documents we filed with the SEC, including our most recent Form 10-K and 10-Q for a discussion of the risks that may affect our future results.

提醒一下，我們今天討論的事項包括有關市場供需、我們的預期結果和其他事項的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與今天的陳述存在重大差異。我們請您參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件，包括我們最新的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格，以討論可能影響我們未來業績的風險。

Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, performance or achievements. We are under no duty to update any of the forward-looking statements to conform these statements to actual results.

儘管我們認為前瞻性陳述中反映的預期是合理的，但我們不能保證未來的結果、活動水平、業績或成就。我們沒有義務更新任何前瞻性陳述以使這些陳述符合實際結果。

I'll now turn the call over to Sanjay.

我現在將把電話轉給 Sanjay。

Thank you, Farhan. Good afternoon, everyone. Micron delivered fiscal third quarter revenue within our guidance range with gross margin and EPS above the range. The ongoing improvement of customer inventories and memory content growth are driving higher industry demand while production cuts across the industry continue to help reduce excess supply. As a result, pricing trends are improving, and we have increased confidence that the industry has passed the bottom for both quarterly revenue and year-on-year revenue growth.

謝謝你，法爾漢。大家下午好。美光第三財季營收在我們的指導範圍內，毛利率和每股收益高於該範圍。客戶庫存的持續改善和內存容量的增長正在推動更高的行業需求，而整個行業的減產繼續有助於減少供應過剩。因此，定價趨勢正在改善，我們更有信心該行業已經度過了季度收入和同比收入增長的底部。

Our technology leadership and strengthening product portfolio position us well across diverse growth markets, including AI and memory-centric computing. Beyond this downturn, we expect to see record TAM in calendar 2025, along with a return to more normalized levels of profitability.

我們的技術領先地位和不斷增強的產品組合使我們在不同的增長市場中佔據有利地位，包括人工智能和以內存為中心的計算。除了這次低迷之外，我們預計 2025 年 TAM 將創歷史新高，同時盈利能力將恢復到更加正常化的水平。

The impact of the May 24 decision by the Cyberspace Administration of China on Micron's business remains uncertain and fluid. Several Micron customers, including mobile OEMs have been contacted by certain critical information infrastructure operators or representatives of the government in China concerning the future use of Micron products.

中國國家互聯網信息辦公室 5 月 24 日的決定對美光業務的影響仍然不確定且不穩定。中國某些關鍵信息基礎設施運營商或政府代表已就美光產品的未來使用問題聯繫了包括移動 OEM 在內的多家美光客戶。

As discussed before, Micron's revenue with companies headquartered in Mainland China and Hong Kong, including direct sales as well as indirect sales through distributors, accounts for approximately 1/4 of Micron's worldwide revenue and remains the principal exposure. We currently estimate that approximately half of that China headquartered customer revenue, which equates to a low double-digit percentage of Micron's worldwide revenue, is at risk of being impacted.

如前所述，美光科技與總部位於中國大陸和香港的公司的收入（包括直接銷售以及通過分銷商的間接銷售）約占美光科技全球收入的 1/4，仍然是主要業務。我們目前估計，中國總部客戶收入的大約一半（相當於美光全球收入的兩位數百分比）面臨受到影響的風險。

This significant headwind is impacting our outlook and slowing our recovery. Micron is working to mitigate this impact over time and expect increased quarter-to-quarter revenue variability. Micron's long-term goal is to retain its worldwide DRAM and NAND share.

這一重大逆風正在影響我們的前景並減緩我們的複蘇。美光正在努力隨著時間的推移減輕這種影響，並預計季度與季度之間的收入波動性會增加。美光的長期目標是保持其全球 DRAM 和 NAND 份額。

Turning to technology. Micron continues to lead the industry in both DRAM and NAND technology. We are investing prudently to maintain our technology competitiveness while managing CapEx, node ramps and wafer start reductions to reduce our bit supply and align it with demand. Our industry-leading 1-beta DRAM and 232-layer NAND nodes are achieving world-class yields and the yield ramp for these nodes has been faster than any of our prior nodes. These leadership nodes provide a strong cost capability along with best-in-class power and performance specifications that will be leveraged across the portfolio of DRAM and NAND products.

轉向技術。美光繼續在 DRAM 和 NAND 技術領域保持行業領先地位。我們正在謹慎投資，以保持我們的技術競爭力，同時管理資本支出、節點升級和晶圓開工減少，以減少我們的比特供應並使其與需求保持一致。我們行業領先的 1-beta DRAM 和 232 層 NAND 節點正在實現世界一流的良率，並且這些節點的良率提升速度比我們之前的任何節點都要快。這些領先節點提供了強大的成本能力以及一流的功率和性能規格，將在 DRAM 和 NAND 產品組合中得到利用。

In fiscal Q3, we achieved several important product qualifications on these advanced nodes and are well positioned to ramp them in fiscal 2024. We are also making good progress towards the introduction of our EUV-based 1-gamma node in 2025. This node will be manufactured first in our Taiwan site, where we already have EUV capability installed and operating in preparation for this ramp.

在第三財季，我們在這些先進節點上獲得了多項重要的產品資格，並做好了在 2024 財年提升這些產品的準備。我們在 2025 年推出基於 EUV 的 1-gamma 節點方面也取得了良好進展。該節點將在首先在我們的台灣工廠進行製造，我們已經在那里安裝並運行了 EUV 功能，為該坡道做好準備。

We also recently announced plans to bring EUV technology to our fab in Hiroshima, Japan with support from the Japanese government. Micron will be the first company to bring EUV technology to Japan for production.

我們最近還宣布計劃在日本政府的支持下將 EUV 技術引入我們位於日本廣島的工廠。美光將成為第一家將 EUV 技術引入日本進行生產的公司。

We are also advancing our global assembly and test network in order to support our product portfolio and extend our ability to deliver on global customer demand in the future. In China, we announced an investment of approximately $600 million over the next several years in our operations in Xian. This builds on our long history of significant investment in our Xian assembly, packaging and test operations.

我們還在推進我們的全球組裝和測試網絡，以支持我們的產品組合併擴展我們未來滿足全球客戶需求的能力。在中國，我們宣布未來幾年將對西安業務投資約 6 億美元。這是建立在我們對西安組裝、封裝和測試業務的長期重大投資的基礎上的。

As a part of this investment, we have decided to purchase the assembly equipment of our partner, Power Tech Semiconductor Xian, who has been operating inside our Xian facility for the last 8 years. We also intend to construct a new building at our Xian site to provide space to add more product capabilities. This will allow us, over time, to serve more of the demand from our customers in China from the Xian site.

作為這項投資的一部分，我們決定購買我們的合作夥伴力科半導體西安的組裝設備，該公司在過去 8 年一直在我們西安工廠內運營。我們還打算在西安工廠建造一座新大樓，為增加更多產品功能提供空間。隨著時間的推移，這將使我們能夠通過西安工廠滿足中國客戶的更多需求。

In India, with the strong support of the Indian government, we will build a new assembly and test facility in Gujarat to address demand for the latter half of this decade. We are also increasing our investments in assembly and test capacity in Taiwan for high-bandwidth memory products as we gear up for stronger demand in this segment, driven by the AI wave.

在印度，在印度政府的大力支持下，我們將在古吉拉特邦建設新的組裝和測試設施，以滿足本十年後半段的需求。我們還增加了對台灣高帶寬內存產品組裝和測試能力的投資，以應對人工智能浪潮推動的該領域更強勁的需求。

Now turning to our end markets. Customers continue to make progress in reducing their excess inventory in fiscal Q3. Most customer inventories in the PC and smartphone segments are close to normal levels now consistent with our forecast 6 months ago. Some of these inventory levels can get distorted by customer attempts to leverage current prices, which are deemed to be transient and unsustainable at these levels to purchase additional volumes before prices rise significantly. Data center customer inventory is also improving and will likely normalize around the end of this calendar year or somewhat thereafter, depending on the growth in traditional data center spending.

現在轉向我們的終端市場。第三財季，客戶在減少過剩庫存方面繼續取得進展。 PC 和智能手機領域的大多數客戶庫存目前接近正常水平，與我們 6 個月前的預測一致。其中一些庫存水平可能會因客戶試圖利用當前價格而扭曲，在價格大幅上漲之前，在這些水平上購買額外的數量被認為是短暫且不可持續的。數據中心客戶庫存也在改善，並且可能會在本日曆年年底左右或之後恢復正常，具體取決於傳統數據中心支出的增長。

In data center, we saw strong sequential revenue growth in both cloud and enterprise in fiscal Q3, driven by some recovery from depressed sales levels in fiscal Q2. The recent acceleration in the adoption of generative AI is driving higher-than-expected industry demand for memory and storage for AI servers, while traditional server demand for mainstream data center applications continues to be lackluster.

在數據中心方面，受第二財季低迷銷售水平有所復甦的推動，第三財季雲和企業業務的收入連續強勁增長。最近生成式人工智能的加速採用正在推動人工智能服務器內存和存儲的行業需求高於預期，而主流數據中心應用的傳統服務器需求仍然低迷。

Micron's product portfolio and road map of innovative products position us to capture growth opportunities from AI and data-centric computing architectures for both training and inferencing. Increasingly large AI models with an exponentially growing number of parameters are driving demand for dramatically higher memory content.

美光的產品組合和創新產品路線圖使我們能夠從人工智能和以數據為中心的計算架構中捕捉增長機會，用於訓練和推理。參數數量呈指數級增長的人工智能模型越來越大，正在推動對更高內存容量的需求。

As we have said before, AI servers have 6x to 8x the DRAM content of a regular server and 3x the NAND content. In fact, some customers are deploying AI compute capability with a substantially higher memory content. A striking example is NVDL, DGX, GH 200 supercluster, which shows just how memory-intensive AI workloads can be. It provides developers the ability to support giant models with a massive shared memory space of 144 terabytes.

正如我們之前所說，AI 服務器的 DRAM 內容是普通服務器的 6 到 8 倍，NAND 內容是普通服務器的 3 倍。事實上，一些客戶正在部署具有更高內存容量的人工智能計算能力。一個引人注目的例子是 NVDL、DGX、GH 200 超級集群，它展示了 AI 工作負載的內存密集型程度。它使開發人員能夠支持具有 144 TB 巨大共享內存空間的巨型模型。

A significant majority of that memory footprint is enabled by a joint development project between our 2 companies that extends Micron's low-power DRAM leadership to server-class applications. We are proud to pioneer this differentiated LP DRAM innovation to deliver a significant reduction in data center power consumption compared to DDR-based solutions helping to support our customers' green initiatives.

其中大部分內存佔用是由我們兩家公司之間的聯合開發項目實現的，該項目將美光在低功耗 DRAM 領域的領先地位擴展到服務器級應用。我們很自豪能夠開創這種差異化 LP DRAM 創新，與基於 DDR 的解決方案相比，顯著降低數據中心功耗，幫助支持客戶的綠色計劃。

High-bandwidth memory used in high-performance computing is seeing very strong demand this year, driven by demand for generative AI. We are working closely with our customers and have begun sampling our industry-leading HBM3 product offering.

在生成式人工智能需求的推動下，今年用於高性能計算的高帶寬內存需求非常強勁。我們正在與客戶密切合作，並已開始對我們行業領先的 HBM3 產品提供樣品。

The customer response has been strong, and we believe our HBM3 product delivers significantly higher bandwidth than competing solutions and establishes the new benchmark in performance and consumption supported by our 1 beta technology, TSV and other innovations, enabling a differentiated advanced packaging solution.

客戶反應強烈，我們相信我們的 HBM3 產品可提供比競爭解決方案高得多的帶寬，並在我們的 1 beta 技術、TSV 和其他創新的支持下建立了性能和功耗的新基準，從而實現差異化的先進封裝解決方案。

We expect to begin a mass production ramp for this exciting HBM3 product in early calendar 2024 and to achieve meaningful revenues in fiscal 2024. Micron also has a strong position in the industry transition to D5, which is the latest generation of DDR memory. Our D5 percentage of DRAM shipments has more than doubled from fiscal Q2 to Q3 and we expect Micron D5 volume to cross over D4 at the end of first calendar quarter of 2024 versus mid-calendar 2024 for the industry.

我們預計這款令人興奮的 HBM3 產品將於 2024 年初開始量產，並在 2024 財年實現可觀的收入。美光在向最新一代 DDR 內存 D5 的行業轉型中也擁有強大的地位。從第二財季到第三財季，我們的 D5 DRAM 出貨量百分比增加了一倍以上，我們預計美光 D5 出貨量將在 2024 年第一季度末超過 D4，而行業的 2024 年中期將達到這一水平。

Micron's 1 alpha D5 modules are qualified and shipping to data center customers. We are also making good progress on our 1 beta-based high-density 128 gigabyte D5 modules using a 32 gigabit die that optimizes cost and performance to provide customers with a lower cost of ownership solution for memory-intensive workloads like AI. We expect these high-density modules to ramp in calendar Q2 of 2024 and with significant cost improvements over today's expense sales, TSV-based solutions in the industry.

美光科技的 1 alpha D5 模塊已合格並發貨給數據中心客戶。我們在基於 1 beta 的高密度 128 GB D5 模塊方面也取得了良好進展，該模塊使用 32 GB 芯片，優化了成本和性能，為客戶提供更低擁有成本的解決方案，適用於 AI 等內存密集型工作負載。我們預計這些高密度模塊將在 2024 年第二季度開始量產，並且與當今行業中基於 TSV 的解決方案的費用銷售相比，成本將顯著改善。

Our 96-gigabyte D5 high-density module built on 1 alpha technology using 24 gigabit die is already shipping in volume and delivers equivalent performance for the majority of workloads versus the more expensive TSV, dual die package-based 128-gigabyte modules.

我們的 96 GB D5 高密度模塊採用 1 alpha 技術，使用 24 GB 芯片，現已批量發貨，為大多數工作負載提供與更昂貴的 TSV、基於雙芯片封裝的 128 GB 模塊相當的性能。

In data center SSDs, Micron's entire portfolio is now on 176 layer or 232 layer NAND, demonstrating our product and technology leadership. We are in a strong position to serve AI demand for fast storage as these data-intensive applications proliferate. In fiscal Q3, we launched the world's first 200-plus layer NAND data center SSD, and qualification is in progress at multiple key customers to support AI cluster installations. In fact, we have already passed qualification of this product at a critical server OEM partner. We also launched our Extreme endurance data center SSD, which offers superior scalability and affordability versus hard drives.

在數據中心 SSD 領域，美光的整個產品組合現在均採用 176 層或 232 層 NAND，展示了我們的產品和技術領先地位。隨著這些數據密集型應用程序的激增，我們在滿足人工智能對快速存儲的需求方面處於有利地位。在第三財季，我們推出了全球首款 200 多層 NAND 數據中心 SSD，並正在多個關鍵客戶進行資格認證，以支持 AI 集群安裝。事實上，我們已經通過了關鍵服務器 OEM 合作夥伴對該產品的認證。我們還推出了超耐用數據中心 SSD，與硬盤相比，它具有卓越的可擴展性和經濟性。

In PCs, we now forecast calendar 2023 PC unit volume to decline by a low double-digit percentage year-over-year with PC units expected to be below the pre-COVID levels last seen in 2019. We are excited about the ongoing industry transition to D5 and are well positioned for it with our strong D5 product lineup. Industry clients D5 mix is expected to cross over from D4 in early calendar 2024.

在個人電腦方面，我們現在預測 2023 年個人電腦銷量將同比下降兩位數百分比，其中個人電腦銷量預計將低於 2019 年新冠肺炎疫情前的水平。我們對正在進行的行業轉型感到興奮到 D5，並憑藉我們強大的 D5 產品陣容做好了充分準備。行業客戶的 D5 組合預計將在 2024 年初從 D4 跨越。

In fiscal Q3, we achieved record quarterly client SSD bit shipments driven by share growth in client SSDs as customers adopted our industry-leading solutions. Our SSD QLC bit shipment mix reached a new record for the third consecutive quarter with growth in both clients and consumer.

在第三財季，隨著客戶採用我們行業領先的解決方案，客戶端 SSD 份額增長，推動我們實現了創紀錄的季度客戶端 SSD 位出貨量。隨著客戶和消費者的增長，我們的 SSD QLC 位出貨量組合連續第三個季度創下新紀錄。

Last month, we launched crucial T700, the world's fastest Gen 5 PCIe consumer SSD built with our 232 layer NAND. In graphics, industry analysts continue to expect graphics TAM growth CAGR to outpace the broader market supported by applications across client and data center. We expect customer inventories to normalize in calendar Q3. We plan to introduce our next-generation G7 product on our industry-leading 1-beta node in the first half of calendar year 2024.

上個月，我們推出了關鍵的 T700，這是採用我們的 232 層 NAND 構建的世界上最快的第 5 代 PCIe 消費級 SSD。在圖形領域，行業分析師繼續預計圖形 TAM 複合年增長率將超過客戶端和數據中心應用程序支持的更廣泛市場。我們預計客戶庫存將在第三季度恢復正常。我們計劃於 2024 年上半年在行業領先的 1-beta 節點上推出下一代 G7 產品。

In mobile, we now expect calendar 2023 smartphone unit volumes to be down by a mid-single-digit percentage year-over-year. While units are weaker, we are seeing stronger memory content growth driven by a mix shift toward premium phones and elasticity. We expect sequential growth in fiscal Q4 as customers prepare for upcoming product launches in the back half of calendar 2023.

在移動領域，我們現在預計 2023 年智能手機銷量將同比下降中個位數百分比。雖然單位較弱，但我們看到，由於向高端手機和彈性的混合轉變，內存內容增長更加強勁。我們預計，隨著客戶為 2023 年下半年即將推出的產品做好準備，第四財季將出現環比增長。

In fiscal Q3, we achieved key mobile customer qualifications on our 1 beta base LP5X and started high-volume revenue shipments to Tier 1 OEMs. In addition, we achieved significant milestones in UFS with the qualification and ramp of a high-capacity UMCP5 featuring 16 gigabyte of DRAM and 512 gigabytes of NAND. We have also started to sample a new UFS4 product based on our latest 232-layer NAND technology, which enables industry-leading performance for flagship handsets.

在第三財季，我們在 1 beta 版 LP5X 上獲得了關鍵移動客戶資格，並開始向一級 OEM 廠商大批量發貨。此外，我們還通過具有 16 GB DRAM 和 512 GB NAND 的高容量 UMCP5 的認證和升級，在 UFS 領域取得了重要的里程碑。我們還開始對基於我們最新 232 層 NAND 技術的新 UFS4 產品進行樣品測試，該產品可為旗艦手機提供行業領先的性能。

Last, I'll cover the auto and industrial end markets, which represent over 20% of our revenue and contribute more stable revenue and profitability. Micron continues to lead in automotive, which is a key market and growth driver for us. In fiscal Q3, auto revenue reached another quarterly record and grew by a high single-digit percentage year-over-year. We continue to expect growth in auto memory demand for the second half of calendar 2023, driven by easing non-memory semiconductor supply, normalizing customer inventory levels and increasing memory content per vehicle.

最後，我會介紹一下汽車和工業終端市場，這兩個市場占我們收入的20%以上，貢獻了更穩定的收入和盈利能力。美光繼續在汽車領域保持領先地位，這是我們的關鍵市場和增長動力。在第三財季，汽車收入再創季度紀錄，並以較高的個位數百分比同比增長。我們繼續預計，在非內存半導體供應放鬆、客戶庫存水平正常化以及每輛車內存容量增加的推動下，2023 年下半年汽車內存需求將出現增長。

The industrial market saw early signs of recovery in fiscal Q3. Inventory levels are stabilizing at distribution partners and at the majority of our customers. As a result, we expect an improvement in demand in the second half of calendar 2023. We are excited about our growth prospects in this market as industrial customers continue to adopt and implement IoT, AI and machine learning in the factory.

第三財季工業市場出現復甦的初步跡象。分銷合作夥伴和我們大多數客戶的庫存水平正在穩定。因此，我們預計 2023 年下半年的需求將有所改善。隨著工業客戶繼續在工廠採用和實施物聯網、人工智能和機器學習，我們對該市場的增長前景感到興奮。

Now turning to industry outlook. Our expectations for calendar 2023 industry bit demand growth has been further reduced to low to mid-single digits in DRAM and to high single digits in NAND, which are well below the expected long-term CAGR of mid-teens percentage range in DRAM and low 20s percentage range in NAND. While the AI-driven demand has been stronger than our expectations 3 months ago, the PC, smartphone and traditional server demand forecasts are now lower.

現在轉向行業前景。我們對 2023 年行業比特需求增長的預期已進一步下調至 DRAM 中的低至中個位數和 NAND 中的高個位數，這遠低於 DRAM 和低中雙位數百分比範圍的預期長期復合年增長率。 NAND 中 20 秒的百分比範圍。雖然人工智能驅動的需求強於我們三個月前的預期，但個人電腦、智能手機和傳統服務器的需求預測現在較低。

We continue to expect stronger industry bit shipments for DRAM and NAND in the second half of the calendar year, driven by secular content growth and continued improvement in customer inventory. While the industry demand forecast for calendar 2023 is now lower, the significant supply reductions across the industry have started to stabilize the market.

我們繼續預計，在內容長期增長和客戶庫存持續改善的推動下，今年下半年 DRAM 和 NAND 的行業比特出貨量將更加強勁。雖然 2023 年的行業需求預測目前較低，但整個行業供應量的大幅減少已開始穩定市場。

We see both DRAM and NAND year-over-year supply growth to be negative for the industry in calendar 2023, as utilization and CapEx cuts across the industry impact supply growth. While supply/demand balance is improving due to the excess inventory, profitability and cash flow will remain extremely challenged for some time. Market recovery can accelerate if there is further reduction in industry production and these cuts are sustained well into calendar 2024.

我們預計 2023 年 DRAM 和 NAND 的供應同比增長都將對該行業產生負面影響，因為整個行業的利用率和資本支出削減會影響供應增長。儘管由於庫存過剩，供需平衡正在改善，但盈利能力和現金流在一段時間內仍將面臨嚴峻挑戰。如果行業產量進一步減少，並且這些減產持續到 2024 年，市場復甦可能會加速。

In response to the industry environment, Micron has taken decisive actions to bring our supply back in balance with demand. We expect Micron's year-on-year bit supply growth to be meaningfully negative for DRAM. We also expect to produce fewer NAND bits in calendar 2023 than in calendar 2022.

為了應對行業環境，美光采取了果斷行動，使我們的供應與需求恢復平衡。我們預計美光的位供應量同比增長將對 DRAM 產生重大負面影響。我們還預計 2023 年生產的 NAND 位數量將少於 2022 年。

Our fiscal 2023 CapEx plan of $7 billion is down more than 40% from last year, with WFE down more than 50%. We continue to expect fiscal '24 WFE to be down year-on-year. Recently, we have further reduced wafer starts to approach 30% in both DRAM and NAND. We currently expect reduced wafer starts will continue well into calendar 2024, and as we remain focused on managing down our inventories and controlling our supply.

我們的 2023 財年資本支出計劃為 70 億美元，比去年下降了 40% 以上，其中 WFE 下降了 50% 以上。我們繼續預計 24 財年 WFE 將同比下降。最近，我們將 DRAM 和 NAND 的晶圓開工率進一步減少至接近 30%。我們目前預計晶圓開工量的減少將持續到 2024 年，並且我們將繼續專注於管理庫存和控制供應。

I will now turn it over to Mark.

我現在將把它交給馬克。

Thanks, Sanjay. Good afternoon, everyone. Fiscal Q3 results were in line to better than expectations, with revenue coming in above the midpoint of our guidance range and gross margin and EPS exceeding the high end of the range.

謝謝，桑傑。大家下午好。第三財季業績符合預期，好於預期，收入高於我們指導範圍的中點，毛利率和每股收益超過該範圍的高端。

Total fiscal Q3 revenue was approximately $3.8 billion, up 2% sequentially and down 57% year-over-year. Fiscal Q3 revenue included $72 million from an insurance settlement disclosed at the time we provided guidance. Fiscal Q3 DRAM revenue was $2.7 billion representing 71% of total revenue. DRAM revenue declined 2% sequentially, with bit shipments increasing in the 10 percentage range and prices declining by approximately 10%.

第三財季總收入約為 38 億美元，環比增長 2%，同比下降 57%。第三財季收入包括我們提供指導時披露的保險和解金中的 7200 萬美元。第三財季 DRAM 收入為 27 億美元，佔總收入的 71%。 DRAM 收入環比下降 2%，位出貨量增長 10%，價格下降約 10%。

Fiscal Q3 NAND revenue was $1 billion, representing 27% of Micron's total revenue. NAND revenue increased 14% sequentially with bit shipments increasing in the upper 30 percentage range and prices declining in the mid-teens percentage range.

第三財季 NAND 營收為 10 億美元，占美光總營收的 27%。 NAND 收入環比增長 14%，位出貨量增長在 30% 以上的範圍內，而價格則在 15% 左右的範圍內下降。

Now turning to revenue by business unit. Compute and Networking business unit revenue was $1.4 billion, up 1% sequentially. Strong sequential growth in server and graphics revenues was offset by a decline in client. Embedded business unit revenue was $912 million, up 5% sequentially. On a sequential basis, automotive and consumer revenues were strong.

現在轉向按業務部門劃分的收入。計算和網絡業務部門收入為 14 億美元，環比增長 1%。服務器和圖形收入的強勁連續增長被客戶端的下降所抵消。嵌入式業務部門收入為 9.12 億美元，比上一季度增長 5%。從環比來看，汽車和消費者收入強勁。

Revenue for the mobile business unit was $819 million, down 13% sequentially due to timing of shipments. As Sanjay mentioned, we expect growth in mobile revenues in fiscal Q4. Revenue for the Storage Business Unit was $627 million, up 24% sequentially and driven by increased shipments across most of the portfolio.

移動業務部門的收入為 8.19 億美元，由於發貨時間原因，環比下降 13%。正如桑傑提到的，我們預計第四財季移動收入將增長。存儲業務部門的收入為 6.27 億美元，環比增長 24%，主要得益於大部分產品組合出貨量的增長。

The consolidated gross margin for fiscal Q3 was negative 16%, improving 15 percentage points sequentially. This result was negatively impacted by approximately $400 million or 11 percentage points of write-downs associated with inventory produced in the quarter.

第三財季綜合毛利率為負 16%，比上一季度提高 15 個百分點。這一結果受到與本季度生產的庫存相關的約 4 億美元或 11 個百分點的減記的負面影響。

Operating expenses in fiscal Q3 were $866 million, down roughly $50 million sequentially. OpEx benefited from ongoing expense reduction initiatives and gains on sales of certain assets. We had an operating loss of roughly $1.5 billion in fiscal Q3 resulting in an operating margin of negative 39%, improved from negative 56% in the prior quarter.

第三財季運營支出為 8.66 億美元，比上一季度減少約 5000 萬美元。運營支出受益於持續的費用削減舉措和某些資產銷售的收益。第三財季我們的運營虧損約為 15 億美元，導致運營利潤率為負 39%，較上一季度的負 56% 有所改善。

Fiscal Q3 taxes were $102 million, higher than expectations at the time of our guidance driven by onetime discrete items. As mentioned in previous quarters, despite a consolidated loss on a worldwide basis, we still have taxes payable in certain geographies due to taxable income levels reported in those geographies.

第三季度財政稅收為 1.02 億美元，高於我們在曾經的離散項目推動下制定指導時的預期。正如前幾個季度所提到的，儘管全球範圍內出現綜合虧損，但由於某些地區報告的應稅收入水平，我們仍然在某些地區有應付稅款。

The non-GAAP loss per share in fiscal Q3 was $1.43, down from a loss per share of $1.91 in the prior quarter, and earnings per share of $2.59 in the prior year. Fiscal Q3 EPS included approximately $0.37 of losses from the impact of the inventory write-down associated with inventory produced in the quarter.

第三財季的非 GAAP 每股虧損為 1.43 美元，低於上一季度的每股虧損 1.91 美元，上年的每股收益為 2.59 美元。第三財季每股收益包括因與本季度生產的庫存相關的庫存減記影響而產生的約 0.37 美元的損失。

Turning to cash flows and capital spending. Our operating cash flows were approximately $24 million. Capital expenditures were $1.4 billion during the quarter. We continue to expect capital expenditures to be approximately $7 billion for the fiscal year. that's near $1 billion in fiscal Q4.

轉向現金流和資本支出。我們的經營現金流量約為 2400 萬美元。本季度資本支出為 14 億美元。我們仍然預計本財年的資本支出約為 70 億美元。第四財季的收入接近 10 億美元。

Free cash flow was negative $1.4 billion in the quarter and improved from the previous 2 quarters. Our fiscal Q3 ending inventory was $8.2 billion or 168 days. Due to increases in process steps and product complexity, we now target inventory levels of around 120 days, which at present would equate to approximately $6 billion. Our current inventories include strategic stocks of approximately $1 billion over target levels associated with build-ahead of product for cost optimization and risk mitigation.

本季度自由現金流為負 14 億美元，較前兩個季度有所改善。我們第三財季期末庫存為 82 億美元，即 168 天。由於流程步驟和產品複雜性的增加，我們現在的目標庫存水平約為 120 天，目前相當於約 60 億美元。我們當前的庫存包括超出目標水平約 10 億美元的戰略庫存，這些庫存與用於成本優化和風險緩解的產品提前構建相關。

At quarter end, we held cash and investments of $11.4 billion and had total liquidity of $13.9 billion, including our untapped credit facility. We issued $1.5 billion of long-term debt in the quarter. And with part of those proceeds paid down $600 million of our term loan facility resulting in a net increase to debt of $900 million. Our fiscal Q3 ending debt was $13.2 billion.

截至季度末，我們持有現金和投資 114 億美元，流動性總額為 139 億美元，其中包括未動用的信貸額度。我們本季度發行了 15 億美元的長期債務。這些收益的一部分用於償還 6 億美元的定期貸款融資，導致債務淨增加 9 億美元。我們第三財季期末債務為 132 億美元。

Now turning to our outlook for the fiscal fourth quarter. As mentioned in filings and our comments today, the CAC decision is a headwind to our outlook. We expect the revenue impact to vary by quarter with the impact in fiscal Q4 being less than the quarterly impact in the first half of fiscal 2024. Over time, we have a goal of retaining our global market share in both DRAM and NAND.

現在轉向我們對第四財季的展望。正如我們今天提交的文件和評論中提到的，CAC 的決定對我們的前景構成了不利影響。我們預計收入影響因季度而異，第四財季的影響小於 2024 財年上半年的季度影響。隨著時間的推移，我們的目標是保持 DRAM 和 NAND 的全球市場份額。

In fiscal Q4, as the industry demand continues to improve and despite the effects on our business from the CAC decision, we still see record bit shipments. Fiscal Q4 gross margin will be impacted by costs from underutilization, weak pricing levels and product mix. In the current business environment, the gap between our DRAM and NAND profitability is significant, and changes in the mix can drive large variability in gross margins.

在第四財季，隨著行業需求持續改善，儘管 CAC 決定對我們的業務產生了影響，但我們仍然看到創紀錄的比特出貨量。第四財季毛利率將受到利用率不足、定價水平疲弱和產品組合等成本的影響。在當前的商業環境下，我們的 DRAM 和 NAND 盈利能力之間的差距很大，而且組合的變化可能會導致毛利率出現很大的波動。

Our gross margin guidance does not contemplate additional write-downs of inventory. We continue to aggressively manage our operating expenses and remain on track to exit the fiscal year at less than $850 million.

我們的毛利率指導不考慮額外的庫存減記。我們繼續積極管理運營支出，並有望在本財年結束時以低於 8.5 億美元的成本結束。

Looking beyond fiscal Q4, we expect OpEx to increase over $50 million in fiscal Q1 2024 on R&D program expense timing. And as reductions to employee compensation end. With all these factors in mind, our non-GAAP guidance for fiscal Q4 is as follows: we expect revenue to be $3.9 billion, plus or minus $200 million; gross margin to be in the range of negative 10.5% plus or minus 250 basis points; and operating expenses to be approximately $845 million plus or minus $15 million; we expect tax expenses of approximately $40 million.

展望第四財季之後，我們預計 2024 年第一財季的運營支出將因研發計劃支出時間而增加超過 5000 萬美元。隨著員工薪酬的減少結束。考慮到所有這些因素，我們對第四財季的非 GAAP 指導如下：我們預計收入為 39 億美元，上下浮動 2 億美元；毛利率在負10.5%正負250個基點範圍內；運營費用約為 8.45 億美元上下 1500 萬美元；我們預計稅收支出約為 4000 萬美元。

Based on a share count of approximately 1.1 billion shares, we expect EPS to be a loss of $1.19 plus or minus $0.07.

根據約 11 億股的股數，我們預計每股收益將虧損 1.19 美元正負 0.07 美元。

In closing, we continue to act quickly and tenaciously to navigate this downturn, making the investments to maintain our leading capabilities across technology, products and manufacturing while preserving our solid balance sheet. In this environment, we remain sharply focused on improving our profitability and free cash flow.

最後，我們繼續迅速而頑強地採取行動來應對這場低迷，進行投資以保持我們在技術、產品和製造方面的領先能力，同時保持穩健的資產負債表。在這種環境下，我們仍然專注於提高盈利能力和自由現金流。

As market conditions improve, we will continue to drive efficiencies to hold on to productivity gains. Despite the impact of this downturn and effects of the CAC decision, we remain confident in our financial model and our ability to deliver long-term profitability, cash flow and shareholder returns.

隨著市場狀況的改善，我們將繼續提高效率，以保持生產率的提高。儘管受到經濟低迷和 CAC 決定的影響，我們仍然對我們的財務模式以及我們提供長期盈利能力、現金流和股東回報的能力充滿信心。

I will now turn it back over to Sanjay.

我現在將把它轉回桑傑。

Thank you, Mark. I'm proud of the execution of the Micron team and the progress we've made this quarter. The leadership products we released and qualified [are] strengthening Micron's portfolio across multiple key markets. While there are near-term headwinds, I'm excited about the new product introductions that we have planned for the next several quarters, which will further enable us to leverage the dramatic growth in AI that is ahead of us.

謝謝你，馬克。我對美光團隊的執行力以及我們本季度取得的進展感到自豪。我們發布並通過認證的領先產品正在加強美光在多個關鍵市場的產品組合。儘管近期存在不利因素，但我對我們計劃在未來幾個季度推出的新產品感到興奮，這將使我們能夠進一步利用人工智能領域的巨大增長。

I'm confident that this portfolio momentum, combined with our technology capability, manufacturing excellence, financial discipline and excellent customer relationships will position us well for the future.

我相信，這種投資組合的勢頭，加上我們的技術能力、卓越的製造、財務紀律和良好的客戶關係，將為我們的未來奠定良好的基礎。

I also want to call attention to Micron's 2023 Sustainability Report, which published yesterday. The report underscores our continued commitment to innovation the environment, our people and the communities where we operate, outlining our progress and escalations across our environmental, social and governance programs. I encourage you to review the full report on Micron's website.

我還想提請大家關注昨天發布的美光 2023 年可持續發展報告。該報告強調了我們對環境、員工和運營所在社區創新的持續承諾，概述了我們在環境、社會和治理計劃方面取得的進展和升級。我鼓勵您查看美光網站上的完整報告。

Thank you for joining us today. We will now open for questions.

感謝您今天加入我們。我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of C.J. Muse from Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess first question, with inventory expected to normalize in the coming months quarter, how are you seeing customer purchasing behavior perhaps change given that we're clearly hitting a pricing trough very soon. We'd love to hear kind of how those discussions might be changing.

我想第一個問題是，庫存預計將在未來幾個月的季度內恢復正常，考慮到我們顯然很快就會觸及定價低谷，您如何看待客戶的購買行為可能會發生變化。我們很想听聽這些討論可能會發生怎樣的變化。

Thanks, CJ, for that question. We, of course, continue to work closely with our customers. And as we said, that customer inventories are improving, except for data center, inventories are close to normal in most of our other end markets. Data center we said by end of this year or somewhat thereafter -- shortly thereafter, data center customer inventories, we expect to improve as well.

謝謝 CJ 提出這個問題。當然，我們將繼續與客戶密切合作。正如我們所說，客戶庫存正在改善，除了數據中心外，我們大多數其他終端市場的庫存都接近正常水平。我們表示，到今年年底或此後不久，數據中心的客戶庫存也會有所改善。

And we continue to work closely with our customers. Some of the customers definitely interested in some of the longer-term outlook for the business and other customers operate on a month-to-month basis. And overall, of course, we continue to mitigate through some of the impact of the China decision as well. But the value that we are bringing to the customers for our products continues to strengthen, and Micron is very much focused on navigating through the current downturn and working closely with our customers to address their future demand.

我們將繼續與客戶密切合作。一些客戶肯定對業務的長期前景感興趣，而其他客戶則按月運營。當然，總的來說，我們也繼續減輕中國決定的一些影響。但我們為客戶帶來的產品價值不斷增強，美光非常專注於渡過當前的低迷時期，並與客戶密切合作，以滿足他們未來的需求。

And as we have said in my remarks that some of the customers, given the low pricing that exists in the industry today, and before prices begin to increase substantially, some of the customers may be looking at purchasing additional volumes at this time. But in general, the trajectory is of continuing improvement in their inventory levels end to end across the supply chain, add the customers directly as well as third parties who may be supplying to the customers. And as you know, inventories at the suppliers are coming down as well.

正如我們在評論中所說，鑑於當今行業中存在的低價，在價格開始大幅上漲之前，一些客戶可能會考慮此時購買額外的數量。但總的來說，其軌跡是整個供應鏈端到端的庫存水平持續改善，直接添加客戶以及可能向客戶供貨的第三方。如您所知，供應商的庫存也在下降。

Very helpful. If I could just follow up real quickly on HBM3. You guided to meaningful [reps], in fiscal '24. Can you give us a sense of what that means? And over time, what size kind of could that look like for you guys looking out kind of 3, 5 years?

很有幫助。如果我能快速跟進 HBM3 就好了。您在 24 財年指導了有意義的[代表]。您能讓我們了解一下這意味著什麼嗎？隨著時間的推移，對於你們來說，在 3、5 年後，它會是什麼樣的尺寸？

Well, with respect to HBM3, we are very excited about this product. Micron has focused on bringing an industry-leading product and HBM3 product that is in early stages of sampling. And we expect to begin production volume ramp of this product in early 2024 is a product that has significantly higher performance, bandwidth and significantly lower power. In fact, as a product, it is close to a generational leap ahead of anything else that is in the market.

嗯，關於 HBM3，我們對這個產品感到非常興奮。美光致力於推出行業領先的產品和處於早期樣品階段的 HBM3 產品。我們預計該產品將於 2024 年初開始量產，該產品具有顯著更高的性能、帶寬和顯著更低的功耗。事實上，作為一種產品，它比市場上的任何其他產品都快要實現了一代人的飛躍。

We have received strong endorsement for this product in the market, and we expect the volume ramp of this product for us to be rapid, to be steep ramp, and this will bring in our fiscal year 2024 strong revenue growth opportunity for us. So we are very excited about this standout product. It will be a significant growth driver for Micron. And everything that we have done here is, of course, built on our industry-leading 1-beta technology and applying to it, of course, advanced packaging, differentiated packaging and TSV capability.

我們對該產品在市場上獲得了強烈認可，我們預計該產品的銷量將快速、陡峭地增長，這將為我們在 2024 財年帶來強勁的收入增長機會。因此，我們對這款出色的產品感到非常興奮。這將成為美光科技的重要增長動力。當然，我們在這裡所做的一切都是建立在我們行業領先的 1-beta 技術之上，並應用了先進封裝、差異化封裝和 TSV 功能。

So this is, we believe, going to be a standout product for us. And we expect we target a share with HBM with this kind of an industry-leading product that would be higher than our average DRAM share in the industry as well.

因此，我們相信，這將成為我們的傑出產品。我們預計，我們的目標是通過這種行業領先的產品與 HBM 分享，該份額也將高於我們在行業中的平均 DRAM 份額。

And our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的蒂莫西·阿庫裡 (Timothy Arcuri)。

I had 2. Mark, the first one is for you. I was wondering if you can sort of lay out what the fiscal Q4 guidance would have looked like in net of the ban. I know you said that the impact from the ban gets worse actually in the fiscal first half. So is it as simple as maybe fiscal Q4, you had said low double-digit did impact, but it sounds like it's probably not that big in fiscal Q4. So something less than that in fiscal Q4, and then you sort of expand to a number or something in that range in the first half of fiscal 2025 or '24 rather, can you sort of handicap that for us and shape it for us.

我有 2 個。馬克，第一個是給你的。我想知道您是否可以列出在排除禁令後第四季度財政指引會是什麼樣子。我知道你說過，禁令的影響實際上在上半財年變得更糟。那麼這是否像第四財季一樣簡單，您曾說過低兩位數確實產生了影響，但聽起來第四財季的影響可能沒有那麼大。因此，比第四財季的數字要少一些，然後在 2025 財年上半年或 24 年上半年擴大到某個數字或該範圍內的數字，您能否為我們製造障礙並為我們塑造它。

Yes. We had a small impact in very small in Q3. It's a more material impact in Q4. We do expect the impact to increase. However, our actions to mitigate that will help offset the effect. But really, at this time, it's a headwind, but there's -- and that's clear. However, we are taking mitigating actions and it's very uncertain continues to evolve on what the impact will be. And again, the impact that we see in the fourth quarter, it's contemplated in our guidance.

是的。我們在第三季度的影響非常小。第四季度的影響更為重大。我們確實預計影響會增加。然而，我們採取的緩解措施將有助於抵消影響。但實際上，目前這是一個逆風，但這是很明顯的。然而，我們正在採取緩解措施，但影響的持續發展仍非常不確定。再說一次，我們在第四季度看到的影響，在我們的指導中得到了考慮。

Got it. Maybe I'll ask you in the follow-up. But my second question is for Sanjay. So Sanjay, I asked you this last call, too. So you alluded to the smartphone customers at least wanting to kind of get out in front of what they see maybe could be some tightness and maybe they're opportunistically trying to take advantage of pricing being so low. Can you just talk more broadly about what might change in your relationship with your customers coming out of this downturn? I mean, could we be headed toward a situation where maybe the data center customers that pushed you and your peers so far during the downturn that maybe we can talk about LTAs at some point. I know that this is a ways away, given kind of where we are today. But can you just talk about maybe over the past 3 months, when I asked you last time how the tone of the discussion with the data center customers in particular has changed.

知道了。也許後續我會問你。但我的第二個問題是問桑傑的。桑傑，我最後一次打電話也問過你。因此，您提到智能手機客戶至少希望擺脫他們所看到的可能存在的緊張局面，也許他們正在機會主義地試圖利用如此低的價格。您能否更廣泛地談談在這次經濟低迷時期，您與客戶的關係可能​​會發生什麼變化？我的意思是，我們是否會面臨這樣一種情況：也許是數據中心客戶在經濟低迷時期推動您和您的同行走得如此之遠，也許我們可以在某個時候討論長期協議。我知道，考慮到我們今天的處境，這還有很長的路要走。但您能否談談也許在過去 3 個月裡，當我上次問您時，與數據中心客戶的討論基調發生了怎樣的變化？

Well, our customers, of course, work with us on LTAs. And as we have said, LTAs relate to their forecast for the year, generally. And while some customers may be operating on shorter term or other customers longer term. But generally speaking, they operate on yearly LTAs and LTAs involve supply and demand commitments from the 2 sides. Of course, sometimes with the changing industry environment on either side, on the supply or on the demand side, there can be adjustments made to those LTAs, and we work closely with our customers in those regards.

當然，我們的客戶在長期協議上與我們合作。正如我們所說，長期協議通常與他們對今年的預測相關。雖然某些客戶可能會短期運營，但其他客戶可能會長期運營。但一般來說，他們以年度長期協議運作，長期協議涉及雙方的供需承諾。當然，有時隨著供應側或需求側行業環境的變化，這些長期協議可能會有所調整，我們在這些方面與客戶密切合作。

And we have had close relationships with the customers. We have a very strong product momentum. You are particularly inquiring about data center. And let me tell you that our product momentum in data center with strong portfolio of solutions, particularly addressing the growing interest in AI, in data center, generative AI, becoming a big opportunity, and we look at it for 2024 as a big year for AI and for memory and storage and Micron will be well positioned with this product. And these are all parts of our discussions when we address their requirements on their future purchases when we address LTA requirements. And of course, we need the necessary investments related to our production mix in terms of die requirements, in terms of our assembly and test requirements and we really work closely with our customers to help manage these.

我們與客戶建立了密切的關係。我們擁有非常強勁的產品動力。您特別詢問有關數據中心的問題。讓我告訴您，我們在數據中心領域的產品動力以及強大的解決方案組合，特別是解決了人們對人工智能、數據中心、生成式人工智能日益增長的興趣，成為一個巨大的機遇，我們將 2024 年視為重要的一年人工智能以及內存和存儲領域，美光將憑藉該產品佔據有利地位。當我們解決他們對未來採購的要求時，當我們解決長期協議要求時，這些都是我們討論的一部分。當然，我們需要在模具要求、裝配和測試要求方面與我們的生產組合相關的必要投資，並且我們確實與客戶密切合作以幫助管理這些。

And just keep in mind that, as I mentioned, that a lot of new product considerations go into the LTAs as well. As well as, of course, the volume and overall demand and supply considerations. So LTAs at the end, really help both the parties. They help us plan our engineering, our product road map, alignment on that, our investments in things such as back-end capacity because products like HBM, product like high-density modules and of course, in the mobile sector, products like MCPs, et cetera, have all different considerations at the back end. And these are the kind of things, the LTAs really help us plan with our customers.

請記住，正如我所提到的，長期協議中也考慮了許多新產品的考慮因素。當然，還有數量和總體供需考慮。因此，最終的長期協議確實對雙方都有幫助。他們幫助我們規劃我們的工程、我們的產品路線圖、協調一致、我們對後端容量等方面的投資，因為 HBM 等產品、高密度模塊等產品，當然還有移動領域的 MCP 等產品，等等，在後端有各種不同的考慮。這些都是 LTA 真正幫助我們與客戶一起制定計劃的事情。

And our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar from TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

Congrats on the good results. Sanjay, the first question I wanted to ask you was you spoke about AI servers having 6x to 8x more DRAM content and that demand is strong while traditional data center service demand is weak. There's a view that some of these AI servers are replacing over 10 of the DCs, regular DC servers. So I'm just kind of curious how to think about overall DRAM demand as AI grows but probably cannibalizes some of your regular data center server DRAM content. And then I have a follow-up.

恭喜取得好成績。 Sanjay，我想問你的第一個問題是，你談到 AI 服務器的 DRAM 內容增加了 6 倍到 8 倍，而且需求強勁，而傳統數據中心服務需求疲軟。有一種觀點認為，其中一些人工智能服務器正在取代 10 多個 DC、常規 DC 服務器。因此，我只是有點好奇如何考慮隨著人工智能的發展而考慮整體 DRAM 需求，但可能會蠶食一些常規數據中心服務器 DRAM 內容。然後我有一個後續行動。

So look, when we look at the overall DRAM demand, the DRAM TAM, of course, the AI is driving growth. Automotive, certainly driving growth. Other end markets, such as we mentioned, mobile and PC in terms of all consumer, in terms of their end demand, has been somewhat lackluster. The AI demand that is driven in data center, whether it is in the enterprise definitely drives healthy trends for memory growth. Yes, enterprise server and some of the data center demand has been recently somewhat impacted by the macro trends, but the trend of AI and more memory is absolutely continuing. And that's what -- when we look at our overall 2023 demand growth and the projections of CAGR that we have ahead of us, we have taken those into account.

所以，當我們觀察整體 DRAM 需求時，DRAM TAM，當然，人工智能正在推動增長。汽車業無疑會推動增長。其他終端市場，例如我們提到的，就所有消費者而言，就其終端需求而言，移動和個人電腦一直有些乏善可陳。數據中心驅動的人工智能需求，無論是在企業中，肯定會推動內存增長的健康趨勢。是的，企業服務器和一些數據中心的需求最近受到了宏觀趨勢的一定影響，但人工智能和更多內存的趨勢絕對會持續下去。這就是——當我們審視 2023 年的總體需求增長以及我們對複合年增長率的預測時，我們已經將這些考慮在內。

This is very, very early innings for AI, and AI is really pervasive. It's everywhere in, of course, cloud applications, enterprise server applications, applications such as generative AI would be in enterprises too because due to confidentiality of data, enterprises will be building their own large language models. And as you know, while the enterprise large language models, may not be as large as the large language models you may see in examples such as super clusters, et cetera. But all of them are really trending towards greater number of parameters.

對於人工智能來說，現在還處於非常非常早期的階段，而且人工智能確實非常普遍。當然，它在雲應用程序、企業服務器應用程序、生成式人工智能等應用程序中無處不在，因為由於數據的機密性，企業將構建自己的大型語言模型。如您所知，雖然企業大型語言模型可能不像超級集群等示例中看到的大型語言模型那麼大。但所有這些都確實趨向於參數數量的增加。

Now we are talking about parameters with Generative AI getting into even trillion parameter range, not too long ago. These used to be in 100 millions of range. That requires more memory. So regardless of the applications, whether it is on the enterprise side or on the cloud server side, the memory requirements are continuing to increase. And I'll just point out that 6x to 8x that we have mentioned is the multiple of DRAM requirement in AI server versus standard server. And of course, as we highlighted in the script, there are many compute configurations, such as the super cluster example that we gave you, where the DRAM content that is required is few hundred times higher than a standard server.

現在我們正在談論不久前生成式人工智能甚至達到萬億參數範圍的參數。這些曾經在一億的範圍內。這需要更多的內存。所以無論什麼應用，無論是企業端還是雲服務器端，內存需求都在持續增加。我只想指出，我們提到的 6 倍到 8 倍是 AI 服務器與標準服務器的 DRAM 需求的倍數。當然，正如我們在腳本中強調的那樣，有許多計算配置，例如我們為您提供的超級集群示例，其中所需的 DRAM 內容比標準服務器高數百倍。

So really, I think the journey here ahead of us will be very exciting. And when we look at machine-to-machine communication, when we look at opportunities for the virtuous cycle for the ever-increasing data that training applications, that inferencing at scale and various edge applications including automotive are driving the requirements for memory and storage will continue to grow well, and Micron is going to be well positioned with our products.

所以說真的，我認為我們前面的旅程將非常令人興奮。當我們審視機器對機器通信時，當我們尋找不斷增加的數據的良性循環機會時，訓練應用程序、大規模推理和包括汽車在內的各種邊緣應用正在推動對內存和存儲的需求。繼續良好增長，美光將憑藉我們的產品佔據有利地位。

And we consider 2024 to be a big banner year for AI, for memory and storage. And Micron will be well positioned to capture this with our strong portfolio of products from D5 to LP5 to HBM to high-density modules even including graphics.

我們認為 2024 年對於人工智能、內存和存儲來說是一個重要的一年。美光將憑藉我們強大的產品組合（從 D5 到 LP5 到 HBM，再到高密度模塊，甚至包括顯卡）來抓住這一機遇。

Got it. Got it. Very helpful, Sanjay. And then a follow-up for Mark. You said no inventory write-down in the current quarter expected. And if I remember right, Mark, you also mentioned in the past that inventory write-down (inaudible) your view on pricing 3 quarters out. So is it fair to assume that you're expecting a pricing drop pretty much in this quarter? And is the CAC decision does get really worse that 15% to 25% of your sales gets impacted, is there any more risk of inventory write-down? Or is that agnostic inventory write down?

知道了。知道了。非常有幫助，桑傑。然後是馬克的後續行動。您表示預計本季度不會減記庫存。如果我沒記錯的話，馬克，您過去也提到過庫存減記（聽不清）您對 3 個季度定價的看法。那麼，您預計本季度價格會大幅下降是否合理？ CAC 的決定是否真的會變得更糟，導致 15% 到 25% 的銷售額受到影響，是否還會有庫存減記的風險？或者是不可知的庫存減記？

Yes. Thanks, Krish. Maybe spend a few minutes just covering because of a very complicated topic with a lot of moving parts. Maybe spend a bit of time on the topic. So our reported gross margin, our outlook, it's a function of many factors, including pricing. The inventory write-downs, which do include or incorporate our forward view of pricing. The effects of utilization, which you heard today, we've increased or reduced our wafer starts further. And then just volumes and associated leverage on [period] costs as discussed in previous quarters, and of course, mix. These factors are continuously changing due to market environment and our actions, and as I've stated before at these lower levels of profitability, our margin forecast and results are more sensitive to slight changes in assumptions such as price.

是的。謝謝，克里什。也許需要花幾分鐘來討論，因為這個主題非常複雜，有很多變化的部分。也許花一些時間在這個話題上。因此，我們報告的毛利率和我們的前景是許多因素的函數，包括定價。庫存減記確實包括或納入了我們對定價的前瞻性看法。您今天聽到的利用率的影響，我們增加或減少了晶圓，這進一步開始。然後是前幾個季度討論的銷量和相關的[期間]成本槓桿，當然還有混合。由於市場環境和我們的行動，這些因素不斷變化，正如我之前所說，在盈利水平較低的情況下，我們的利潤率預測和結果對價格等假設的輕微變化更加敏感。

Now given price trends and our current view on pricing and costs, we took a material write-down in the second quarter as we reported $1.4 billion, took another $400 million this quarter. And with these write-downs, we've pulled forward inventory costs, hence lowered the carrying value of on-hand inventories.

現在考慮到價格趨勢以及我們目前對定價和成本的看法，我們在第二季度進行了重大減記，報告為 14 億美元，本季度又減記了 4 億美元。通過這些減記，我們降低了庫存成本，從而降低了現有庫存的賬面價值。

Yes, as a lower cost inventory clears in the future quarters, we realized more income in those quarters than we would have otherwise without the charge. So as an example, we took this $400 million of additional write-downs in third quarter for inventories produced. And considering our latest views on volume mix, we also realized a benefit of near $300 million from selling through the lower cost inventories impacted by the second quarter write-down.

是的，隨著未來幾個季度成本較低的庫存清理，我們在這些季度實現的收入比不收費的情況下要多。舉例來說，我們在第三季度對生產的庫存額外減記了 4 億美元。考慮到我們對銷量組合的最新看法，我們還意識到，通過受第二季度減記影響的低成本庫存銷售，可以帶來近 3 億美元的收益。

So I do want to call out that it's -- with all the uncertainty, complexity and sensitivity at these profitability levels, our write-down and the benefits that we had in the third quarter, we're not far off what we estimated in our guide. So I think that's a good reflection of our handle of what's happening in the business.

因此，我確實想指出，考慮到這些盈利水平、我們的減記和第三季度的收益的所有不確定性、複雜性和敏感性，我們與我們的預期相去不遠。指導。所以我認為這很好地反映了我們對業務中正在發生的事情的處理。

Now we've also got underutilization effects, which are creating higher costs and inventories and adding period costs. We project roughly $1.1 billion of underutilization impact in FY '23 associated with the front end. Most of that will impact the P&L this year. Some of it will carry over to next year. But because of the effect of the write-down accounting, less of it will carry over to next year than would have otherwise.

現在，我們還面臨利用率不足的影響，這會造成更高的成本和庫存，並增加期間成本。我們預計 23 財年與前端相關的未充分利用影響約為 11 億美元。其中大部分將影響今年的損益表。其中一些將延續到明年。但由於減記會計的影響，結轉到明年的金額比其他情況要少。

Beyond this period of write-down effects, the impact of lower wafer starts between the period cost and the higher cost inventories, the effect is higher single digits on margins then down to mid- and lower single digits on margins as revenues increase.

除了這段減記效應之外，在期間成本和較高成本庫存之間，較低的晶圓開工率的影響，其影響是利潤率上升到較高個位數，然後隨著收入的增加，利潤率下降到中位數和較低個位數。

So considering all this, just to give you a sense of profile of margin and in turn, pricing to your question. We said last quarter that we expect -- or as we said last quarter, we expect -- we had a reported second quarter margin to be the trough, and that was driven by the $1.4 billion write-down.

因此，考慮到這一切，只是為了讓您了解利潤狀況，進而了解您的問題的定價。我們上個季度表示，我們預計——或者正如我們上個季度所說，我們預計——我們報告的第二季度利潤率將觸底，這是由 14 億美元的減記推動的。

With a much lower inventory charge forecasted in the third quarter, which happened, that margin improved about 15 points. And then also, as mentioned last quarter, we said that fourth quarter would be better than third quarter on a lower write-down. And hence, we guided today 5 points better than the third quarter. Again, these estimates are sensitive to pricing changes. And -- but in our current view, we expect a gradual improvement on margin to continue sequentially on a reported basis.

隨著第三季度庫存費用的預測大幅降低（這一結果確實發生），利潤率提高了約 15 個百分點。然後，正如上個季度提到的，我們表示第四季度的減記率將好於第三季度。因此，我們今天的指導比第三季度好 5 個點。同樣，這些估計對價格變化很敏感。而且，但根據我們目前的觀點，我們預計利潤率將在報告的基礎上繼續逐步改善。

Now if you take our non-GAAP third quarter gross margin of negative 16%, and we were to strip out the write-down effects in third quarter, both the write-down portion and the realized benefit. And also to normalize, you strip out the insurance settlement, which we had in the third quarter, we would still be -- those 2 things largely offset. So we'd be still at about 16% negative gross margin.

現在，如果我們的非公認會計準則第三季度毛利率為負 16%，那麼我們將剔除第三季度的減記影響，包括減記部分和已實現的收益。而且為了正常化，如果去掉我們在第三季度的保險結算，我們仍然會——這兩件事在很大程度上抵消了。因此，我們的毛利率仍為 16% 左右。

So again, over 100 net inventory effects, the $400 million write down less the $300 million realized benefit and then the roughly the same over 100 insurance settlement. So -- and this is a function of the pricing environment, which we, I think, properly captured in our guide.

同樣，超過 100 個淨庫存影響，4 億美元的減記減去 3 億美元的已實現收益，然後是大致相同的超過 100 個保險結算。所以——這是定價環境的一個函數，我認為我們在我們的指南中正確地體現了這一點。

Now that adjusted 16 -- or that adjusted margin, 16% is down clearly versus the adjusted second quarter margin, which, as I recall, is about 7%, so down 23 points. So under this adjusted view, we would trough on gross margin over the next few quarters, and then we would improve off these low levels through FY '24. So this is a profile that's consistent with what we've discussed before, though the levels are a bit lower and a bit delayed. And so hopefully, that provide you some color both on how we see pricing and how we see gross margin playing out with all the puts and takes.

現在調整後的 16——或者說調整後的利潤率 16% 與調整後的第二季度利潤率相比明顯下降，據我記得，調整後的第二季度利潤率約為 7%，因此下降了 23 個百分點。因此，根據這種調整後的觀點，我們的毛利率將在未來幾個季度觸底，然後我們將在 24 財年擺脫這些低水平。因此，這個配置文件與我們之前討論的內容一致，儘管級別有點低並且有點延遲。希望這能讓您了解我們如何看待定價以及我們如何看待所有看跌期權和看跌期權的毛利率。

And our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

I guess as a follow-up to that, Mark, on your gross margin guidance for the fourth quarter. I know there are no inventory write-downs, but is it contemplating a step-up in underutilization charges or period costs associated with underutilization charges sequentially? And because you cut your wafer starts another 5 percentage points right to 30% and if you could maybe quantify that step-up in underutilization charges? And then as a follow-up, is the incremental 5% cut in utilization is primarily a result of the CAC restrictions?

馬克，我想作為您第四季度毛利率指導的後續行動。我知道沒有庫存減記，但是否考慮依次增加未充分利用費用或與未充分利用費用相關的期間成本？因為你切割的晶圓開始另外 5 個百分點，達到 30%，你是否可以量化未充分利用費用的上升？接下來，利用率增量減少 5% 是否主要是 CAC 限制的結果？

It is not. It's more of an industry dynamic and our intent to get supply discipline in the market. Supply needs to come out of the market given inventory levels, and that's the principal driver. As far as the effects of utilization, it is already incorporated in this guide. The period costs in the fourth quarter are about $200 million. And again, they're contemplated in the guidance.

它不是。這更多的是行業動態以及我們在市場上獲得供應紀律的意圖。鑑於庫存水平，供應需要退出市場，這是主要驅動力。至於使用效果，已經納入本指南中。第四季度的期間成本約為2億美元。同樣，指南中也考慮到了這些問題。

And our next question comes from the line of Ambrish Srivastava from BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Ambrish Srivastava。

I want to come back to the gross margin. When you had given the guidance for this quarter, you were -- you had walked us through in detail. And you had said that stripping out all the adjustments and the industry write-down, 3Q would be at 7.5%. Am I reading this right that now you stripped out as negative 16%, right? So it's much worse than what you were thinking?

我想回到毛利率。當您給出本季度的指導時，您已經詳細地向我們介紹了。您曾說過，剔除所有調整和行業減記後，第三季度的增長率將為 7.5%。我沒看錯吧，現在你把 16% 去掉了，對嗎？那麼事情比你想像的要糟糕得多嗎？

No, I don't think it's much worse than what you're thinking. If you strip out just the underutilization effects, but you keep in the insurance settlement, you're close to what we said, sort of that 7%, 8%. So that you need to consider. We had said that was in there.

不，我不認為事情比你想像的更糟糕。如果你只剔除未充分利用的影響，但保留在保險結算中，你就接近我們所說的，大約是 7%、8%。所以你需要考慮一下。我們說過那在裡面。

Okay. Got it. And then a follow-up, either for you or for Sanjay. On the 15% round number, 15% of bit loss, share loss in China. How do you recoup that? Is that based on the assumption that bit growth or bit supply will be constrained? And so if the other 2 suppliers are able to meet the China demand, they'll leave some demand out here in other regions for you to basically go after? or Is there a pricing element to that? I'm just not make sure I understand how you get that.

好的。知道了。然後是針對您或 Sanjay 的後續行動。論15%的整數，15%的比特損失，中國的份額損失。你如何彌補這一點？這是基於比特增長或比特供應將受到限制的假設嗎？那麼，如果其他兩家供應商能夠滿足中國的需求，他們會在其他地區留下一些需求，讓你基本上去追求嗎？或者其中是否有定價因素？我只是不確定我是否理解你是如何理解的。

I will take that. So what we have said is that approximately 50% of our business in China is at risk of getting impacted. And of course, we are focused on mitigating any share loss with CIIOs or as a result of CAC decision, with those customers -- global customers who are not impacted by CAC decision. So keep in mind that our share in DRAM is approximately 23% and our share in NAND is approximately 12%. So obviously, we have opportunities to gain share with other customers. And this is what we are focused on. It will take some time, and the CAC decision can -- I mean, as we have said, it is hurting our business. It is slowing our recovery. It can result in quarter-to-quarter variations as well. But over longer term, our target is to maintain our share.

我會接受的。所以我們所說的是，我們在中國大約50%的業務面臨受到影響的風險。當然，我們專注於減輕 CIIO 的份額損失，或者因 CAC 決策而導致的客戶份額損失，即不受 CAC 決策影響的全球客戶。因此請記住，我們在 DRAM 中的份額約為 23%，在 NAND 中的份額約為 12%。顯然，我們有機會與其他客戶分享。這就是我們關注的重點。這需要一些時間，而 CAC 的決定可能會——我的意思是，正如我們所說，它正在損害我們的業務。它正在減緩我們的複蘇。它還可能導致季度與季度之間的變化。但從長遠來看，我們的目標是維持我們的份額。

So while near term, CAC decision is challenging. Longer term, we will work with customers who are not impacted. Our global customers who are not impacted by CAC decision to increase our share. And we have a long history of working with our customers. We have brought tremendous value of our innovation, our supply, our product portfolio supporting their innovation and road maps in the marketplace. Our customers want to see a strong Micron. Our strategy of keeping our target share consistent over longer term with our current share is understood by our customers because, again, they want to see a strong Micron. So they are supportive of this. And we will continue to work with our customers.

因此，從短期來看，CAC 的決定具有挑戰性。從長遠來看，我們將與未受影響的客戶合作。我們的全球客戶不受 CAC 增加份額決定的影響。我們與客戶合作有著悠久的歷史。我們的創新、供應和產品組合帶來了巨大的價值，支持他們的創新和市場路線圖。我們的客戶希望看到強大的美光科技。我們的客戶理解我們的戰略，即長期保持目標份額與當前份額一致，因為他們再次希望看到強大的美光科技。所以他們對此表示支持。我們將繼續與客戶合作。

And of course, as we bring value to our customers with our products and our product portfolio, we will focus on ROI on our investments, and we'll certainly focus on improving the profitability of our business from current levels as well. So we will, of course, keep profitability in mind. And again, it's important that Micron is a strong partner to our customers. And I think customers understand that multiple strong players in the industry is a benefit for multiple reasons to our customer ecosystem.

當然，當我們通過我們的產品和產品組合為客戶帶來價值時，我們將專注於投資的投資回報率，並且我們當然也會專注於在當前水平上提高我們業務的盈利能力。因此，我們當然會牢記盈利能力。再次強調，美光科技是我們客戶的強大合作夥伴，這一點非常重要。我認為客戶明白，行業內多個強大的參與者對我們的客戶生態系統有多種好處。

And our final question for today comes from the line of Tom O'Malley from Barclays.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的湯姆·奧馬利。

Recently, we've been picking up that there is a change in some of the A series where you're starting to see some HBM2E ease just given the fact that there's limited capacity of HBM3. I guess part 1 is, are you seeing an ability to service that market today? And then the second part of the question is you're saying that AI servers see about 6 to 8x DRAM content I assume that contemplates the HBM, but you guys are talking about some AI tailwinds today when you're really not servicing that market as much. So could you talk about what you're seeing ex-HBM as the multiplier effect on DRAM today, just so we can get a picture of how you guys are seeing the improvement in data center what they have today ex that product. That would be really helpful.

最近，我們注意到一些 A 系列發生了變化，考慮到 HBM3 的容量有限，您開始看到一些 HBM2E 的輕鬆。我想第 1 部分是，您是否看到當今服務該市場的能力？然後問題的第二部分是你說 AI 服務器看到大約 6 到 8 倍的 DRAM 內容，我認為考慮到 HBM，但是你們今天談論的是一些 AI 順風，而你們實際上並沒有為該市場提供服務很多。那麼您能否談談您所看到的前 HBM 對當今 DRAM 的乘數效應，這樣我們就可以了解你們如何看待他們今天除該產品之外的數據中心的改進。這真的很有幫助。

So certainly, we have had HBM2E product in the marketplace that actually gave us strong experience in bringing up our technology and production capability with HBM. The market, as I mentioned, is -- has shifted is shifting to HBM3 and Micron's HBM3+ product, which I called as a generational leap ahead of anything in the industry is going to position us well as we bring that into volume production during the course of our fiscal year '24, starting early part of calendar '24, contributing to several hundred million dollars of revenue opportunity over time.

當然，我們在市場上擁有 HBM2E 產品，這實際上為我們在利用 HBM 提陞技術和生產能力方面提供了豐富的經驗。正如我所提到的，市場已經轉向 HBM3 和美光的 HBM3+ 產品，我稱之為領先於行業任何產品的代際飛躍，這將使我們處於有利地位，因為我們在此過程中將其投入批量生產我們的 '24 財年，從 '24 日曆的早期開始，隨著時間的推移貢獻了數億美元的收入機會。

And with respect to AI part of the market, I want to be very clear that, yes, with respect to high-density modules and with respect to high bandwidth, HBM3 solutions. That part of the market is growing this year, and it's an opportunity that we want to capture, and I believe that we'll be well positioned to capture, as I mentioned, that we will be targeting share in HBM with our absolute industry-leading product that's higher than our DRAM industry average share.

關於市場的人工智能部分，我想非常明確地指出，是的，對於高密度模塊和高帶寬，HBM3 解決方案。這部分市場今年正在增長，這是我們想要抓住的機會，我相信我們將處於有利位置來抓住，正如我提到的，我們將瞄準 HBM 與我們絕對行業的份額 -主導產品高於我們的 DRAM 行業平均份額。

So -- but it's important to understand is that AI is being served not only by HBM or high-density DRAM modules, but it is also being served by D5 memory and by LP DRAM as well. And this is where with the D5 and LP DRAM products, we gave you some examples in our script as well, a large amount of LP DRAM being used in industry-leading high-performance compute platforms.

因此，重要的是要了解，AI 不僅由 HBM 或高密度 DRAM 模塊提供服務，而且還由 D5 內存和 LP DRAM 提供服務。對於 D5 和 LP DRAM 產品，我們也在腳本中為您提供了一些示例，大量 LP DRAM 被用於行業領先的高性能計算平台。

In fact, the 144 terabytes that we mentioned in DGX, GH 200, about 122 terabytes of that is LP DRAM. And Micron is very well positioned with a differentiated solution of our LP DRAM out there today. So I think it's important to understand that the AI server market is made up of HBM. It's made up of high-density DRAM modules includes -- it also is made up of DDR5, LP5 and some element of [graphics] memory as well.

事實上，我們在DGX、GH 200中提到的144 TB，其中大約122 TB是LP DRAM。美光目前憑藉 LP DRAM 的差異化解決方案處於非常有利的地位。因此，我認為了解 AI 服務器市場是由 HBM 組成的這一點很重要。它由高密度 DRAM 模塊組成，包括 DDR5、LP5 和一些[圖形]內存元素。

So we do have a broad portfolio. And in 2024 with HBM and high-density DRAM modules getting into production, I really believe we'll be extremely well positioned to capture the growing opportunity in AI. And 75% of DRAM on AI servers today is DDDR5. And as I emphasized, and as I'm sure you well know, we participate very well in D5. In fact, we led the industry with our D5 products, again, built on 1-beta technology here.

所以我們確實擁有廣泛的產品組合。到 2024 年，隨著 HBM 和高密度 DRAM 模塊投入生產，我堅信我們將處於非常有利的位置，能夠抓住人工智能領域不斷增長的機遇。如今 AI 服務器上 75% 的 DRAM 是 DDDR5。正如我所強調的，並且我相信您也很清楚，我們很好地參與了 D5。事實上，我們再次以 1-beta 技術為基礎，憑藉 D5 產品引領行業。

This does conclude the question-and-answer session as well as today's program. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation. You may now disconnect. Good day.

問答環節和今天的節目到此結束。謝謝女士們先生們的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。再會。