美光科技 (MU) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Micron's Fourth Quarter 2023 Financial Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Samir Patodia, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

歡迎參加美光 2023 年第四季財務電話會議。 （操作員指示）提醒一下，今天的節目正在錄製中。現在我想介紹一下今天節目的主持人，投資者關係部門的薩米爾·帕托迪亞 (Samir Patodia)。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, and welcome to Micron Technologies Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2023 Financial Conference Call. On the call with me today are Sanjay Mehrotra, our President and CEO; and Mark Murphy, our CFO. Today's call is being webcast from our Investor Relations site at investors.micron.com including audio and slides.

謝謝，歡迎參加美光科技 2023 年第四季財務電話會議。今天與我通話的是我們的總裁兼執行長 Sanjay Mehrotra；和我們的財務長馬克·墨菲。今天的電話會議透過我們的投資者關係網站 Investors.micron.com 進行網路直播，包括音訊和幻燈片。

In addition, the press release detailing our quarterly results has been posted on the website, along with the prepared remarks for this call. Today's discussion of financial results is presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures can be found on our website. We encourage you to visit our website at micron.com throughout the quarter for the most current information on the company, including information on financial conferences that we may be attending.

此外，詳細介紹我們季度業績的新聞稿以及為本次電話會議準備的發言稿已發佈在網站上。除非另有說明，今天對財務表現的討論是在非公認會計準則財務基礎上進行的。您可以在我們的網站上找到非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。我們鼓勵您在整個季度訪問我們的網站 micron.com，以獲取有關公司的最新信息，包括我們可能參加的財務會議的信息。

You can follow us on X at MicronTech. As a reminder, the matters we're discussing today include forward-looking statements regarding market demand and supply, our expected results and other matters. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from statements made today. We refer you to the documents we file with the SEC, including our most recent Form 10-K and 10-Q for a discussion of risks that may affect our future results. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, performance or achievements. We are under no duty to update any of the forward-looking statements to conform these statements to actual results. I'll now turn the call over to Sanjay.

您可以在 MicronTech 的 X 上關注我們。提醒一下，我們今天討論的事項包括有關市場供需、我們的預期結果和其他事項的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與今天的陳述有重大差異。我們請您參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件，包括我們最新的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格，以討論可能影響我們未來業績的風險。儘管我們認為前瞻性陳述中反映的預期是合理的，但我們不能保證未來的結果、活動水準、績效或成就。我們沒有義務更新任何前瞻性陳述以使這些陳述符合實際結果。我現在將把電話轉給 Sanjay。

Thank you, Samir. Good afternoon, everyone. In fiscal Q4, Micron delivered revenue and gross margin above the midpoint of our guidance, with EPS above the high end of the range. These results reflect our strong execution, and we are well positioned to drive significant improvements in our financial performance. We believe pricing has now bottomed. Ongoing demand growth, customer inventory normalization and industry-wide supply reductions have set the stage for increased revenue along with improved pricing and profitability throughout fiscal 2024.

謝謝你，薩米爾。大家下午好。在第四財季，美光科技的營收和毛利率高於我們指引的中點，每股盈餘高於該範圍的高端。這些結果反映了我們強大的執行力，我們有能力推動財務表現的顯著改善。我們認為價格現已觸底。持續的需求成長、客戶庫存正常化和全行業供應減少為 2024 財年收入增加、定價和獲利能力改善奠定了基礎。

We continue to expect record industry TAM in calendar 2025, with more normalized levels of profitability. Fiscal 2023 was a challenging year for the memory and storage industry as the revenue TAM reached a multiyear low, resulting in a significant impact to financial performance. Despite this difficult backdrop, the Micron team stayed focused on our strategy, executed well and accomplished several important milestones.

我們繼續預期 2025 年唱片業 TAM 的獲利水準將更加正常化。 2023 財年對於記憶體和儲存產業來說是充滿挑戰的一年，TAM 收入達到多年來的最低點，對財務表現造成重大影響。儘管面臨這種困難的背景，美光團隊仍然專注於我們的策略，執行良好並實現了幾個重要的里程碑。

We achieved record annual automotive revenue, record NAND QLC bit shipments for the full fiscal year and reached record levels in calendar Q2 for revenue share in data center and client SSDs. We were the first in our industry to introduce 1-beta DDR5 and LP5X DRAM products and the first to ship HBM3E samples with industry-leading performance and power efficiency. We were also the first to introduce 232-layer NAND SSD products in data center, client and consumer markets. These accomplishments were underpinned by our leadership technology and continued strong progress in manufacturing execution.

我們實現了創紀錄的年度汽車收入，創紀錄的整個財年 NAND QLC 位元出貨量，並在日曆第二季度達到了資料中心和客戶端 SSD 收入份額的創紀錄水平。我們是業界第一家推出 1-beta DDR5 和 LP5X DRAM 產品的公司，也是第一家推出具有業界領先效能和功效的 HBM3E 樣品的公司。我們也是第一個在資料中心、客戶端和消費市場推出232層NAND SSD產品的公司。這些成就的基礎是我們的領先技術和製造執行方面的持續強勁進步。

We achieved world-class mature yields in record time on our industry-leading 1-beta, DRAM and 232-layer NAND technologies. In addition, Micron took several prudent and timely actions to reduce our CapEx and supply in order to address the market imbalances through the course of fiscal 2023. Our industry-leading technology road map continues to progress well.

我們利用業界領先的 1-beta、DRAM 和 232 層 NAND 技術，在創紀錄的時間內實現了世界一流的成熟良率。此外，美光採取了多項審慎而及時的行動來減少我們的資本支出和供應，以解決整個 2023 財年的市場失衡問題。我們領先業界的技術路線圖繼續取得良好進展。

As we have mentioned before, the vast majority of our bits are on leading-edge nodes, 1-alpha and 1-beta in DRAM and 176-layer and 232-layer in NAND. We continue to make good progress on 1-gamma DRAM development using EUV and are on track for production in calendar 2025. Development of our next-generation NAND node is also well on track.

正如我們之前提到的，我們的絕大多數位元都位於前緣節點，即 DRAM 中的 1-alpha 和 1-beta，以及 NAND 中的 176 層和 232 層。我們在使用 EUV 的 1-gamma DRAM 開發方面繼續取得良好進展，並有望在 2025 年投入生產。我們下一代 NAND 節點的開發也進展順利。

Now turning to our end markets. Customers continue to reduce their excess inventory for memory and storage in fiscal Q4. Most customer inventories for memory and storage in the PC and smartphone markets are now at normal levels, consistent with our prior forecast. Inventory levels are normal across most customers in the automotive market as well. Data center customer inventory is also improving and will likely normalize in early calendar 2024. Consequently, we see demand continuing to strengthen, which has led to an inflection in pricing. Some customers have made strategic purchases in DRAM and NAND to take advantage of unsustainably low pricing as the market begins its recovery.

現在轉向我們的終端市場。客戶在第四財季繼續減少記憶體和儲存的過剩庫存。 PC 和智慧型手機市場的大多數客戶記憶體和儲存庫存目前處於正常水平，與我們先前的預測一致。汽車市場大多數客戶的庫存水準也很正常。資料中心客戶庫存也在改善，並可能在 2024 年初恢復正常。因此，我們看到需求持續增強，導致定價改變。隨著市場開始復甦，一些客戶已對 DRAM 和 NAND 進行了策略性採購，以利用不可持續的低價優勢。

In data center, traditional server demand remains lackluster while demand for AI servers has been strong. Data center infrastructure operators have shifted budgets from traditional servers to higher-priced AI servers. Total server unit shipments are expected to decline in calendar 2023, the first year-over-year decline since 2016. We expect total server unit growth will resume in calendar 2024 to help fulfill ever-increasing workload demand. We also expect content growth in both, AI and traditional servers. Compared to traditional servers, AI training servers contain significantly higher DRAM and NAND content with greater technology complexity, robust product value and higher profitability. We believe our data center revenue has bottomed, and we expect growth in fiscal Q1 and increasing momentum through fiscal years '24 and '25 in our data center business.

資料中心方面，傳統伺服器需求依然低迷，而人工智慧伺服器需求卻強勁。資料中心基礎設施營運商已將預算從傳統伺服器轉移到價格更高的人工智慧伺服器。伺服器總出貨量預計將在 2023 年下降，這是自 2016 年以來首次同比下降。我們預計伺服器總出貨量將在 2024 年恢復成長，以協助滿足不斷增長的工作負載需求。我們也預期人工智慧和傳統伺服器的內容都會成長。與傳統伺服器相比，AI訓練伺服器的DRAM和NAND含量明顯更高，技術複雜度更高，產品價值更強勁，獲利能力更高。我們相信我們的資料中心收入已經觸底，我們預計第一財季將實現成長，並且我們的資料中心業務將在 24 財年和 25 財年保持成長勢頭。

Micron has a strengthening portfolio of solutions optimized for bandwidth, capacity and power. These include HBM3E, DDR5 and associated high-capacity modules, LPDRAM and data center SSDs. This portfolio of industry-leading products positions us well to capture the opportunities presented by data-centric computing architectures and AI. The introduction of our HBM3E product offering has been met with strong customer interest and enthusiasm. Our HBM3E provides superior bandwidth, power and capacity for generative AI workloads. We developed this industry-leading design using our 1-beta technology, advanced TSV and other innovations that enable a differentiated packaging solution. We have been working closely with our customers throughout the development process and are becoming a closely integrated partner in their AI road maps.

美光擁有針對頻寬、容量和功率進行最佳化的強大解決方案組合。其中包括 HBM3E、DDR5 和相關的高容量模組、LPDRAM 和資料中心 SSD。這個行業領先的產品組合使我們能夠很好地抓住以數據為中心的運算架構和人工智慧帶來的機會。我們的 HBM3E 產品系列的推出引起了客戶的濃厚興趣和熱情。我們的 HBM3E 為生成型 AI 工作負載提供卓越的頻寬、功率和容量。我們利用 1-beta 技術、先進的 TSV 和其他創新技術開發了這項業界領先的設計，從而實現了差異化的封裝解決方案。我們在整個開發過程中一直與客戶密切合作，並正在成為他們的人工智慧路線圖上緊密結合的合作夥伴。

Micron HBM3E is currently in qualification for NVIDIA compute products, which will drive HBM3E-powered AI solutions. We expect to begin the production ramp of HBM3E in early calendar 2024 and to achieve meaningful revenues in fiscal 2024. Micron also has a strong position in the industry transition to D5. We expect Micron D5 volume to cross over D4 in early calendar 2024, ahead of the industry. We expanded our high-capacity D5 DRAM module portfolio with a monolithic die-based 128-gigabyte module and have started shipping samples to customers to help support their AI application needs. We expect revenue from this product in Q2 of calendar 2024. Last month, we announced the introduction of 128-gigabyte and 256-gigabyte CXL 2.0 memory expansion modules.

美光 HBM3E 目前已獲得 NVIDIA 運算產品的資格，這將推動 HBM3E 驅動的人工智慧解決方案。我們預計將於 2024 年初開始 HBM3E 的生產，並在 2024 財年實現可觀的收入。美光在向 D5 的行業過渡中也擁有強大的地位。我們預計美光 D5 銷量將在 2024 年初超越 D4，領先業界。我們透過基於單晶片的 128 GB 模組擴展了我們的高容量 D5 DRAM 模組產品組合，並已開始向客戶運送樣品，以幫助支援他們的 AI 應用需求。我們預計該產品將於 2024 年第二季實現收入。上個月，我們宣布推出 128 GB 和 256 GB CXL 2.0 記憶體擴充模組。

By leveraging a unique dual channel memory architecture, we are able to deliver higher module capacity and increased bandwidth. We have shipped samples to several customers and key partners. In data center SSDs, Micron's entire portfolio utilizes 176-layer or 232-layer NAND in production, a testament to our product and technology leadership. We are well positioned to serve the growing demand for fast storage as data-intensive AI applications proliferate. We saw strong demand for our data center NVMe SSDs across our AI-focused, industry-leading 30-terabyte product as well as our mainstream products.

透過利用獨特的雙通道記憶體架構，我們能夠提供更高的模組容量和更高的頻寬。我們已將樣品發送給多個客戶和主要合作夥伴。在資料中心 SSD 方面，美光的整個產品組合在生產中均採用 176 層或 232 層 NAND，這證明了我們的產品和技術領先地位。隨著資料密集型人工智慧應用程式的激增，我們有能力滿足對快速儲存不斷增長的需求。我們看到，在我們專注於人工智慧、業界領先的 30 TB 產品以及我們的主流產品中，對資料中心 NVMe SSD 的強勁需求。

Micron ended the second calendar quarter with a record high revenue share in data center SSDs based on independent industry assessments. We expect to build on this momentum in fiscal 2024. In PCs, we continue to forecast calendar 2023 PC unit volume to decline by a low double-digit percentage year-over-year and then grow by a low to mid-single-digit percentage in calendar 2024. AI-enabled PCs will drive content growth and an improved refresh cycle over the next 2 years.

根據獨立行業評估，美光在第二季結束時在資料中心 SSD 領域的收入份額創下歷史新高。我們預計將在 2024 財年繼續保持這一勢頭。在個人電腦方面，我們繼續預測 2023 年個人電腦銷量將同比出現低兩位數百分比下降，然後出現低至中個位數百分比增長2024 年。人工智慧PC 將在未來2 年內推動內容成長並改善刷新週期。

In fiscal Q4, we saw a strong sequential bit shipment growth at PC OEMs, driven by demand for LPDRAM in thin client notebooks. We expect to begin revenue shipments of our industry-leading 1-beta based client D5 in fiscal Q1 to PC OEMs. According to third-party analysts, in calendar Q2, we reached record revenue share in client SSDs for PC OEMs as customers adopted our industry-leading solutions. Our 232-layer NVMe client SSD is now qualified at large OEMs and shipping in volume production. Our SSD QLC bit shipment mix reached a new record for the second consecutive quarter with growth in both, client and consumer markets. We continue to expand our footprint in the high-end consumer SSD space, with the launch of 3 new products that extends our reach into professional content creators and enthusiast PC gamers.

在第四財季，受瘦客戶端筆記型電腦對 LPDRAM 需求的推動，我們看到 PC OEM 的位元出貨量連續強勁成長。我們預計將在第一財季開始向 PC OEM 供應我們業界領先的基於 1-beta 的客戶端 D5。據第三方分析師稱，在第二季度，由於客戶採用了我們行業領先的解決方案，我們在 PC OEM 用戶端 SSD 領域的收入份額達到了創紀錄的水平。我們的 232 層 NVMe 用戶端 SSD 現已通過大型 OEM 認證並大量生產。隨著客戶端和消費者市場的成長，我們的 SSD QLC 位元出貨量組合連續第二季創下新紀錄。我們繼續擴大我們在高階消費級 SSD 領域的足跡，推出了 3 款新產品，將我們的觸角擴展到專業內容創作者和發燒友 PC 遊戲玩家。

In mobile, we expect calendar 2023 smartphone unit volume to be down by mid-single-digit percentage year-over-year and then grow by a mid-single-digit percentage in calendar 2024. Elasticity, along with a mix shift towards premium phones with greater capacity is contributing to memory content growth. About 1/3 of smartphones sold today have at least 8 gigabytes of DRAM and 256 gigabytes of NAND, up more than 7 percentage points versus smartphone units a year ago. Similar to our view on PCs, AI-enabled mobile phones could drive content growth and a stronger refresh cycle over time.

在行動領域，我們預計 2023 年智慧型手機銷量將同比下降中個位數百分比，然後在 2024 年實現中個位數百分比增長。彈性以及向高端手機的混合轉變更大的容量有助於記憶內容的增長。目前售出的智慧型手機中約有 1/3 至少配備 8 GB DRAM 和 256 GB NAND，比一年前的智慧型手機數量增加了 7 個百分點以上。與我們對 PC 的看法類似，隨著時間的推移，支援人工智慧的手機可以推動內容成長和更強的刷新週期。

Longer term, we see generative AI applications executing on handsets. These applications will continue to drive new requirements for higher capacity, lower power and increased performance in memory and storage. Last, I'll cover the auto and industrial end markets which contribute to more stable revenue and profitability.

從長遠來看，我們看到生成式人工智慧應用程式在手機上執行。這些應用將繼續推動記憶體和儲存領域對更高容量、更低功耗和更高效能的新要求。最後，我將介紹有助於更穩定收入和獲利能力的汽車和工業終端市場。

Fiscal 2023 marked another record revenue year for our automotive business. Micron continues to lead in automotive market share in quality. Long term, we expect memory and storage content per vehicle to increase in both, ADAS and in-cabin applications. In addition, fast-growing EVs typically contain higher memory and storage content. Our automotive design win trajectory remains strong. The industrial market showed signs of recovery in fiscal Q4. Inventory levels for memory and storage are stabilizing at distribution partners and at the majority of our customers. We expect the volume recovery that we observed in the second half of fiscal 2023 to continue into 2024. We see strong growth prospects in this market over time as industrial customers continue to adopt and implement IoT, AI and machine learning solutions.

2023 財年是我們汽車業務收入再創新高的一年。美光在品質方面繼續在汽車市場份額中處於領先地位。從長遠來看，我們預計每輛車的記憶體和儲存容量在 ADAS 和車內應用中都會增加。此外，快速成長的電動車通常包含更高的記憶體和儲存內容。我們的汽車設計獲勝軌跡依然強勁。第四財季工業市場出現復甦跡象。分銷合作夥伴和大多數客戶的記憶體和儲存庫存水準正在穩定。我們預計2023 財年下半年觀察到的銷售復甦將持續到2024 年。隨著時間的推移，隨著工業客戶繼續採用和實施物聯網、人工智慧和機器學習解決方案，我們看到該市場的強勁增長前景。

As previously discussed, the CAC or Cybersecurity Administration of China decision earlier this year has impacted our business, particularly in the domestic data center and networking markets in China. We remain committed to serving our customers in China for those areas of their business, not impacted by the CAC decision. While there is near-term impact to our demand due to these challenges in China, we remain focused on maintaining Micron's global market share. Our team's grit and Micron's deep relationships with our customers, underpinned by our technology leadership, increasing product momentum, excellent product quality and extensive manufacturing and supply chain capabilities position us well towards these goals. Now turning to our market outlook, starting with demand.

如前所述，今年稍早中國網信辦的決定影響了我們的業務，特別是在中國的國內資料中心和網路市場。我們仍然致力於為中國客戶的業務領域提供服務，而不受 CAC 決定的影響。儘管中國的這些挑戰對我們的需求產生了短期影響，但我們仍然專注於維持美光科技的全球市場份額。我們團隊的勇氣以及美光與客戶的深厚關係，以我們的技術領先地位、不斷增長的產品動力、卓越的產品品質以及廣泛的製造和供應鏈能力為基礎，使我們能夠很好地實現這些目標。現在轉向我們的市場前景，從需求開始。

We expect calendar 2023 DRAM bit demand to grow in the mid-single-digit percentage range. In NAND, our expectations for demand growth this calendar year have increased from high single digits to high teens percentage. These are below the expected long-term bit demand growth CAGRs of mid-teens in DRAM and low 20s percentage range in NAND. While calendar 2023 DRAM demand has been in line with expectations, NAND growth expectations have increased due to stronger-than-expected demand in certain parts of the consumer market and the trend of greater elasticity in per unit content.

我們預計 2023 年 DRAM 位元需求將在中等個位數百分比範圍內成長。在 NAND 方面，我們對今年需求成長的預期已從較高的個位數百分比提高到較高的十幾位數百分比。這些數字低於 DRAM 中十幾歲的預期長期位需求成長複合年增長率和 NAND 中二十幾歲以下的百分比範圍。雖然 2023 年 DRAM 需求符合預期，但由於消費市場某些部分的需求強於預期以及單位內容彈性更大的趨勢，NAND 成長預期有所上升。

While macroeconomic factors remain a risk, we expect robust year-over-year bit demand growth in calendar 2024 for both, DRAM and NAND, driven by improving end market demand, normalized customer inventory levels, content growth across products and ongoing growth in AI. Calendar 2024 bit demand growth is expected to exceed the long-term CAGR for DRAM and to be near the long-term CAGR for NAND.

儘管宏觀經濟因素仍然存在風險，但我們預計2024 年DRAM 和NAND 的比特需求將出現強勁的同比增長，這主要得益於終端市場需求改善、客戶庫存水平正常化、跨產品內容增長以及人工智能持續增長。預計 2024 年比特需求成長將超過 DRAM 的長期複合年增長率，並接近 NAND 的長期複合年增長率。

Turning to supply. Significant supply and CapEx reductions across the industry have helped to stabilize the market and are enabling the recovery that is now underway. We see both, DRAM and NAND, year-over-year supply growth in calendar 2023 to be negative for the industry. We expect Micron's year-on-year bit supply growth to be meaningfully negative for DRAM. We also expect to produce fewer NAND bits in calendar 2023 than in calendar 2022. In calendar 2024, we expect industry DRAM and NAND supply growth to be below industry demand growth and meaningfully so for DRAM.

轉向供應。整個行業供應量和資本支出的大幅減少有助於穩定市場，並促進目前正在進行的復甦。我們認為 2023 年 DRAM 和 NAND 的供應同比增長對該行業來說都是負面的。我們預計美光的位元供應量年增率將對 DRAM 產生重大負面影響。我們也預計 2023 年的 NAND 位元產量將少於 2022 年。到 2024 年，我們預計產業 DRAM 和 NAND 供應成長將低於產業需求成長，對於 DRAM 來說更是如此。

We believe calendar 2024 is positioned to be a year of recovery in the memory and storage industry. A sustained period of supply growth less than demand growth will strengthen the pace of recovery. HBM production will be a headwind to industry bit supply growth. Across the industry, the HBM3E die is roughly twice the size of equivalent capacity D5. The HBM product includes a logic interface die and has a substantially more complex packaging stack that impacts yields. As a result, HBM3 and 3E demand will absorb an outsized portion of industry wafer supply. The ramp of HBM3 and 3E production will reduce overall DRAM bit supply growth industry-wide, with particular supply impact on non-HBM products as more capacity is diverted to addressing HBM opportunities.

我們相信 2024 年將是記憶體和儲存產業復甦的一年。供應成長持續低於需求成長將加快復甦步伐。 HBM 生產將成為產業比特供應成長的阻力。在整個產業中，HBM3E 晶片的尺寸大約是同等容量 D5 的兩倍。 HBM 產品包括一個邏輯介面晶片，並且具有顯著更複雜的封裝堆疊，這會影響良率。因此，HBM3 和 3E 需求將吸收產業晶圓供應的很大一部分。 HBM3 和 3E 產量的增加將降低整個產業 DRAM 位供應的整體成長，尤其是對非 HBM 產品的供應影響，因為將有更多產能轉移到解決 HBM 機會上。

Micron is experiencing a similar impact of our planned HBM3E ramp on our bit supply capability. Micron's bit supply growth in fiscal 2024 is planned to be well below demand growth for both, DRAM and NAND. And we expect to decrease our days of inventory in fiscal 2024. We continue to execute to our strategy of maintaining global bit shipment market share for DRAM and NAND while sustaining tight supply and CapEx management discipline. Micron's fiscal 2024 CapEx is projected to be up slightly compared to fiscal 2023 levels.

美光計畫的 HBM3E 產能提升對我們的位供應能力也產生了類似的影響。美光 2024 財年的位元供應成長預計將遠低於 DRAM 和 NAND 的需求成長。我們預計將在 2024 財年減少庫存天數。我們將繼續執行維持 DRAM 和 NAND 全球位出貨量市場份額的策略，同時維持緊張的供應和資本支出管理紀律。美光 2024 財年的資本支出預計將比 2023 財年的水準略有上升。

WFE CapEx will be down again year-over-year in fiscal 2024. We remain focused on carefully managing overall supply growth. In last quarter's earnings call, we communicated that total wafer start reductions in both, DRAM and NAND, are approaching 30% versus peak 2022 levels. Amid an intense focus on capital efficiency over the last few quarters, we have redeployed a portion of the underutilized equipment to support production ramp of leading-edge nodes in both, DRAM and NAND.

2024 財年，WFE 資本支出將再次較去年同期下降。我們仍專注於謹慎管理整體供應成長。在上季的財報電話會議中，我們表示 DRAM 和 NAND 的晶圓開工總量與 2022 年峰值水準相比已接近 30%。在過去幾季對資本效率的高度關注中，我們重新部署了部分未充分利用的設備，以支援 DRAM 和 NAND 領域前沿節點的產量成長。

Given the higher process step count of these leading-edge nodes, transitioning this equipment results in a significant and structural reduction to our overall wafer capacity in both, DRAM and NAND. Due to the structural reduction in capacity, our DRAM and NAND wafer starts will remain significantly below 2022 levels for the foreseeable future. Our industry supply projections assume a similar structural reduction in wafer capacity industry-wide. Lead times to increase this wafer capacity will be long and will depend on improving demand, pricing and financial performance.

鑑於這些前沿節點的製程步驟數較多，轉換該設備會導致我們的 DRAM 和 NAND 整體晶圓產能顯著、結構性下降。由於產能結構性減少，在可預見的未來，我們的 DRAM 和 NAND 晶圓開工率仍將大幅低於 2022 年的水準。我們的產業供應預測假設全產業晶圓產能出現類似的結構性下降。增加晶圓產能的交貨時間將很長，並且取決於需求、定價和財務表現的改善。

We expect underutilization to continue in our legacy nodes well into calendar 2024. We see our demand at leading-edge nodes exceeding our supply in fiscal and calendar 2024, particularly in the second half of the year. Construction CapEx will be elevated to support our plans to build leading-edge memory fabs in Idaho and New York, for which we filed CHIPS applications in August. As we have highlighted before, the requested level of CHIPS grants for our Idaho and New York projects are essential to the viability and global competitiveness of each of these projects. Our CapEx plans assume that a certain level of CHIPS grant funds will be made available to us in fiscal year 2024.

我們預計傳統節點的利用率不足現象將持續到 2024 年。我們認為，在 2024 財年和日曆中，我們對前沿節點的需求將超過供應，特別是在下半年。我們將提高建設資本支出，以支持我們在愛達荷州和紐約建設領先的內存工廠的計劃，我們已於 8 月份為此提交了 CHIPS 申請。正如我們之前強調的，愛達荷州和紐約計畫所要求的 CHIPS 撥款水準對於每個計畫的可行性和全球競爭力至關重要。我們的資本支出計畫假設我們將在 2024 財政年度獲得一定水準的 CHIPS 撥款資金。

Assembly and Test CapEx is projected to double year-over-year in fiscal 2024, predominantly driven by investments to support HBM3E production. Our planned fiscal 2024 CapEx investments in HBM capacity have substantially increased versus our prior plan in response to strong customer demand for our industry-leading product. Over the course of calendar 2024, we see accelerating AI-driven opportunities for memory and storage across multiple market segments from the data center to the edge. We are encouraged by the improving industry demand and supply fundamentals. We believe that the CapEx constraints created by the industry profitability environment, coupled with improved inventories, announced supply reductions and the impact of the HBM ramp on DRAM bit supply growth will create conditions that will increasingly tighten the supply-demand balance, particularly in the second half of our fiscal year.

預計到 2024 財年，組裝和測試資本支出將同比翻一番，這主要是由支持 HBM3E 生產的投資所推動的。為了滿足客戶對我們行業領先產品的強勁需求，我們計劃的 2024 財年 HBM 產能資本支出投資與先前的計劃相比大幅增加。在 2024 年期間，我們將看到從資料中心到邊緣的多個細分市場中人工智慧驅動的記憶體和儲存機會加速出現。我們對產業需求和供應基本面的改善感到鼓舞。我們認為，產業獲利環境造成的資本支出限制，加上庫存改善、宣布的供應減少以及 HBM 產能提升對 DRAM 位元供應成長的影響，將為供需平衡日益收緊創造條件，特別是在第二季度。我們財政年度的一半。

Our Micron team is executing well and is taking prudent and proactive actions to navigate through the near-term environment and position the company to emerge stronger from the current downturn. We look forward to a recovery in our business financials taking shape in fiscal 2024. I will now turn it over to Mark for our financial results and outlook.

我們的美光團隊執行得很好，正在採取審慎和主動的行動來應對近期環境，並使公司從當前的低迷中脫穎而出。我們期待我們的企業財務狀況在 2024 財年實現復甦。我現在將把我們的財務表現和前景交給馬克。

Thanks, Sanjay, and good afternoon, everyone. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, Micron delivered revenue and gross margin higher than the midpoint of the guidance range and EPS above the high end of the range. We are exiting the fiscal year with the business improving due to multiple factors, including higher volumes and inflection in the pricing environment, strong productivity and ongoing capital discipline. Total fiscal Q4 revenue was approximately $4 billion, up 7% sequentially and down 40% year-over-year. Fiscal 2023 total revenue was $15.5 billion, down 49% year-over-year. Fiscal Q4 DRAM revenue was $2.8 billion, representing 69% of total revenue. DRAM revenue increased 3% sequentially, with bit shipments increasing in the mid-teens percentage range and prices declining in the high single-digit percentage range.

謝謝桑傑，大家下午好。在 2023 財年第四季度，美光科技的營收和毛利率高於指引範圍的中點，每股盈餘高於指引範圍的高端。由於多種因素，包括產量增加和定價環境的變化、強勁的生產力和持續的資本紀律，我們即將結束本財年，業務有所改善。第四財季總營收約 40 億美元，季增 7%，年減 40%。 2023財年總營收為155億美元，較去年同期下降49%。第四財季 DRAM 營收為 28 億美元，佔總營收的 69%。 DRAM 收入較上季成長 3%，位元出貨量成長在中位數百分比範圍內，而價格則在高個位數百分比範圍內下降。

For the fiscal year, DRAM revenue declined 51% year-over-year to $11 billion, representing 71% of total revenue. Fiscal Q4 NAND revenue was $1.2 billion, representing around 30% of Micron's total revenue. NAND revenue increased 19% sequentially, with bit shipments increasing over 40%, driven by the timing of shipments, including strategic purchases and prices declining in the mid-teens percentage range.

本財年，DRAM營收年減51%至110億美元，佔總營收的71%。第四財季 NAND 營收為 12 億美元，約佔美光總營收的 30%。 NAND 營收較上季成長 19%，位元出貨量成長超過 40%，這主要得益於出貨時機（包括策略採購）和價格下降幅度在 10% 左右。

For the fiscal year, NAND revenue declined 46% year-over-year to $4.2 billion, representing 27% of total revenue. Now turning to revenue by business unit. Compute and Networking Business Unit revenue was $1.2 billion, down 14% sequentially. Data center revenue remained weak as customers continue to adjust inventories and as a result of the CAC decision. In fiscal Q1, we expect sequential growth in data center.

本財年，NAND 營收年減 46% 至 42 億美元，佔總營收的 27%。現在轉向按業務部門劃分的收入。計算和網路業務部門營收為 12 億美元，比上一季下降 14%。由於客戶繼續調整庫存以及 CAC 的決定，資料中心收入仍然疲軟。在第一財季，我們預計資料中心將出現環比成長。

Revenue for the Mobile Business Unit was $1.2 billion, up 48% sequentially due to seasonal effects and timing of shipments. Embedded Business Unit revenue was $860 million, down 6% sequentially. Embedded Consumer revenue increased sequentially, helped by seasonality, while automotive and industrial revenue declined modestly. Revenue for the Storage Business Unit was $739 million, up 18% sequentially and driven by increased shipments across most of the product portfolio.

由於季節性影響和發貨時間，行動業務部門的收入為 12 億美元，環比增長 48%。嵌入式業務部門營收為 8.6 億美元，比上一季下降 6%。受季節性影響，嵌入式消費者收入較上季成長，而汽車和工業收入則小幅下降。儲存業務部門的營收為 7.39 億美元，季增 18%，主要得益於大多數產品組合出貨量的成長。

SBU bit shipments set records for fiscal Q4 and the fiscal year. The consolidated gross margin for fiscal Q4 was negative 9%, improving 7 percentage points sequentially. Gross margin was impacted by lower pricing and underutilization costs while the sell-through of previously written-down inventory provided some uplift.

SBU 位出貨量創下第四財季及本財年的紀錄。第四財季綜合毛利率為負 9%，季增 7 個百分點。毛利率受到較低定價和未充分利用成本的影響，而先前減記庫存的售出則帶來了一定的提升。

For the fiscal year, consolidated gross margin was negative 8%, down 54 percentage points year-over-year, driven by price effects, inventory write-downs and the burden of underutilization. Approximately 6 percentage points of the reduction is from net inventory write-downs. Operating expenses in fiscal Q4 were $842 million, down $24 million sequentially due to ongoing expense reduction initiatives and the timing of certain R&D program expenditures. For the fiscal year, operating expenses were $3.6 billion, down $209 million year-over-year, driven by expense reduction initiatives.

受價格影響、庫存減記和利用率不足的影響，本財年綜合毛利率為負 8%，較去年同期下降 54 個百分點。大約 6 個百分點的減少來自淨庫存減記。由於持續的費用削減措施和某些研發計畫支出的時間安排，第四財季的營運費用為 8.42 億美元，比上一季減少 2,400 萬美元。在費用削減措施的推動下，本財年營運費用為 36 億美元，較去年同期減少 2.09 億美元。

On OpEx for the fourth quarter and year, we ended below the target we communicated starting with our September call a year ago. As market conditions improve, we will remain disciplined in all spending, including operating expenses, focusing R&D on the most critical programs and leveraging a competitive and more productive overhead structure. We had an operating loss of roughly $1.2 billion in fiscal Q4, resulting in an operating margin of negative 30%, improved from negative 39% in the prior quarter. Fiscal 2023 operating loss was $4.8 billion, resulting in an operating margin of negative 31%. We recorded a tax benefit of $14 million in fiscal Q4, better than expectations and due primarily to lower-than-expected foreign taxes related to currency effects.

在第四季和今年的營運支出方面，我們最終低於一年前 9 月電話會議時傳達的目標。隨著市場狀況的改善，我們將繼續嚴格控制所有支出，包括營運支出，將研發重點放在最關鍵的項目上，並利用有競爭力和更有效率的管理費用結構。第四財季我們的營業虧損約 12 億美元，導致營業利益率為負 30%，較上一季的負 39% 有所改善。 2023 財年營運虧損為 48 億美元，導致營運利潤率為負 31%。我們在第四財季實現了 1,400 萬美元的稅收優惠，好於預期，這主要是由於與貨幣影響相關的外國稅收低於預期。

For fiscal 2023, total taxes were $142 million. The non-GAAP loss per share in fiscal Q4 was $1.07 compared to a loss per share of $1.43 in the prior quarter and earnings per share of $1.45 in the year ago quarter. Non-GAAP EPS was a loss per share of $4.45 for the fiscal year. Turning to cash flows and capital spending. Our operating cash flows were approximately $250 million in fiscal Q4. For the fiscal year, we generated $1.6 billion of cash from operations, representing 10% of revenue. Capital expenditures were $1 billion during the quarter and totaled $7 billion for the fiscal year.

2023 財年，稅收總額為 1.42 億美元。第四財季的非 GAAP 每股虧損為 1.07 美元，而上一季的每股虧損為 1.43 美元，去年同期的每股收益為 1.45 美元。本財年非 GAAP 每股收益為 4.45 美元。轉向現金流和資本支出。第四財季我們的營運現金流約為 2.5 億美元。在本財年，我們從營運中產生了 16 億美元的現金，佔營收的 10%。本季資本支出為 10 億美元，本財年資本支出總額為 70 億美元。

This was in line with recent guidance and for the year, at the low end of the range of estimates we provided on our December 2022 earnings call. Free cash flow was negative $758 million in the quarter. Our fiscal Q4 ending inventory was $8.4 billion or 170 days. As mentioned last quarter, we are holding approximately $1 billion of strategic inventory stock associated with build-ahead of products for cost optimization and risk mitigation.

這符合我們在 2022 年 12 月財報電話會議上提供的預測範圍的下限，符合今年的近期指引。該季度自由現金流為負 7.58 億美元。我們第四季的期末庫存為 84 億美元，即 170 天。正如上個季度所提到的，我們持有約 10 億美元的戰略庫存，與用於成本優化和風險緩解的產品提前建置相關。

We see days of inventory improving into the first half of the fiscal year. And adjusting for this strategic stock, expect to have only a few weeks of above-target inventories as we enter the second half of fiscal 2024. Inventory levels and profitability will remain principal factors in our decisions around wafer starts and capacity planning. Continuing with the balance sheet, we maintained historically high levels of liquidity. At year-end, we held $10.5 billion of cash and investments and had $13 billion of liquidity when including our untapped credit facility. We ended the year with $13.3 billion in total debt, a weighted average maturity of 2030 on debt and low net leverage.

我們預計本財年上半年庫存天數有所改善。在對這項策略性庫存進行調整後，預計當我們進入2024 財年下半年時，庫存將僅維持幾週的高於目標的水準。庫存水準和獲利能力仍將是我們關於晶圓開工和產能規劃決策的主要因素。繼續從資產負債表來看，我們的流動性保持在歷史最高水準。截至年底，我們持有 105 億美元的現金和投資，如果包括我們未動用的信貸額度，則擁有 130 億美元的流動性。截至年底，我們的債務總額為 133 億美元，債務加權平均到期日為 2030 年，淨槓桿率較低。

Now turning to our outlook for the fiscal first quarter. Demand is improving as customer inventory levels continue to normalize, and secular growth drivers remain intact. We expect record DRAM bit shipments in fiscal Q1. For NAND, we expect fiscal Q1 bit shipments to decline somewhat from fiscal Q4 levels but remained relatively strong. In China, the Cyberspace Administration of China decision continues to impact our revenue opportunity, and the associated headwinds is reflected in our guidance.

現在轉向我們對第一財季的展望。隨著客戶庫存水準繼續正常化，需求正在改善，且長期成長動力保持不變。我們預計第一財季 DRAM 位出貨量將創下歷史新高。對於 NAND，我們預計第一季的比特出貨量將較第四季的水平有所下降，但仍相對強勁。在中國，中國國家互聯網資訊辦公室的決定繼續影響我們的收入機會，相關的不利因素也反映在我們的指導中。

Fiscal Q1 gross margin is projected to improve sequentially on a greater mix of DRAM and more sell-through of written down inventories. We expect approximately 60% of the remaining benefit from lower cost inventories to clear in fiscal Q1. Our gross margin guidance does not contemplate any additional inventory write-downs due to pricing. Period costs associated with underutilization will weigh on gross margins in the quarter as first quarter period costs are projected to be similar to the prior quarter.

由於 DRAM 組合的增加和減記庫存的銷售增加，第一財季毛利率預計將較上季改善。我們預計約 60% 的剩餘收益將在第一個財季從低成本庫存中清理。我們的毛利率指引並未考慮任何因定價而導致的額外庫存減記。由於第一季的期間成本預計與上一季相似，因此與利用率不足相關的期間成本將影響本季的毛利率。

Beyond fiscal Q1, we project gross margin improvement to continue as prices increase and period costs become less of a factor. We expect the rate of price improvement in the second fiscal half to exceed the first half. We now forecast gross margins to be positive throughout the second half of fiscal 2024. As mentioned last quarter, we expect fiscal Q1 operating expenses to increase sequentially, driven by an increase in R&D and as temporary reductions to employee compensation come to an end.

在第一個財季之後，我們預計隨著價格上漲和期間成本不再是一個因素，毛利率將繼續改善。我們預計下半年價格改善速度將超過上半年。我們現在預測整個 2024 財年下半年的毛利率將為正值。正如上個季度所述，我們預計第一財季營運支出將在研發增加和員工薪酬臨時削減結束的推動下環比增加。

For the full fiscal year 2024, we expect operating expenses to be up by a low single-digit percentage versus fiscal 2023. On taxes, we project a material, sequential quarterly increase as we move from a credit in Q4 to a more normal expense. As discussed previously, the overall profitability remains low, a minimum level of taxes will occur based primarily on local jurisdiction profit. As we are forecasting a consolidated pretax loss in fiscal 2024, these local factors will drive tax expense again this year. We estimate our full year fiscal 2024 taxes to be under $200 million.

對於2024 財年整個財年，我們預計營運支出將比2023 財年增長較低的個位數百分比。在稅收方面，隨著我們從第四季度的信貸轉向更正常的支出，我們預計將出現實質性的連續季度增長。如前所述，整體獲利能力仍然較低，最低稅收水準將主要根據當地司法管轄區的利潤來決定。由於我們預測 2024 財年將出現綜合稅前虧損，這些地方因素將再次推動今年的稅收支出。我們預計 2024 財年全年稅金將低於 2 億美元。

Our first quarter tax estimate of $80 million reflects our forecasted Q1 results in proportion to full year projected tax expense. Changes in the distribution of profit within the year may result in changes in the tax expense recognized each quarter. We project our fiscal 2024 capital expenditures to increase slightly versus fiscal 2023 as we balance the long-term capacity needs of the business with ongoing capital discipline and near-term cash flow objectives. Consistent with our comments in the last few quarters, we do see WFE CapEx decreasing from fiscal 2023 to fiscal 2024. When factoring higher construction spend and expected grants in fiscal 2024, we forecast our CapEx to be more evenly distributed over fiscal 2024.

我們第一季的稅收預估為 8000 萬美元，反映了我們預測的第一季業績與全年預計稅收支出的比例。年內利潤分配的變化可能會導致每季確認的稅費發生變化。我們預計 2024 財年的資本支出將比 2023 財年略有增加，因為我們要平衡業務的長期產能需求與持續的資本紀律和近期現金流目標。與我們過去幾季的評論一致，我們確實看到WFE 資本支出從2023 財年到2024 財年有所下降。當考慮到2024 財年更高的建築支出和預期撥款時，我們預測我們的資本支出在2024 財年的分佈將會更為均勻。

A sequential increase in quarterly CapEx, together with improving but still challenging profitability levels in the near term, means free cash flow will remain significantly negative in the first half of the fiscal year. We forecast improved free cash flow in the back half of the fiscal year. We project our balance sheet to remain strong and net leverage ratio to peak in the second quarter of fiscal 2024. To support the long-term investment priorities of the business, we have ample liquidity and ready access to multiple sources of credit.

季度資本支出連續增加，加上短期內獲利水準有所改善但仍具有挑戰性，意味著本財年上半年自由現金流將繼續大幅負值。我們預計本財年後半段自由現金流將會有所改善。我們預計我們的資產負債表將保持強勁，淨槓桿率將在 2024 財年第二季度達到高峰。為了支持業務的長期投資優先事項，我們擁有充足的流動性並可隨時獲得多種信貸來源。

We will continue to manage our business to maintain financial flexibility and in a manner, consistent with our commitment to our investment-grade rating. With all these factors in mind, our non-GAAP guidance for fiscal Q1 is as follows: We expect revenue to be $4.4 billion, plus or minus $200 million; gross margin to be in the range of negative 4%, plus or minus 200 basis points; and operating expenses to be approximately $900 million, plus or minus $15 million. We expect tax expense of approximately $80 million.

我們將繼續管理我們的業務，以保持財務靈活性，並以符合我們對投資等級評級的承諾的方式。考慮到所有這些因素，我們對第一財季的非 GAAP 指引如下： 我們預計營收為 44 億美元，上下浮動 2 億美元；毛利率在負4%，正負200個基點的範圍內；營運費用約 9 億美元，上下浮動 1,500 萬美元。我們預計稅收費用約為 8000 萬美元。

Based on the share count of approximately 1.1 billion shares, we expect EPS to be a loss of $1.07, plus or minus $0.07. In closing, we achieved many successes in fiscal 2023 despite facing a historic downturn. We sustained our technology, product and manufacturing leadership and achieved mature yields in record time on the industry's most advanced nodes in DRAM and NAND.

根據約 11 億股的股數，我們預期每股盈餘將虧損 1.07 美元，正負 0.07 美元。最後，儘管面臨歷史性的低迷，我們在 2023 財年取得了許多成功。我們保持了技術、產品和製造的領先地位，並在創紀錄的時間內在業界最先進的 DRAM 和 NAND 節點上實現了成熟的產量。

Micron's leading product announcements position us well to address the growing performance requirements of data-centric computing. In response to severe market conditions, we acted quickly and decisively to cut supply and capital spend to reduce operating costs and improve productivity and to maintain a solid and flexible balance sheet. As the business improves in fiscal 2024, we will leverage our strengths in technology, product and manufacturing, while maintaining the productivity and capital discipline that we displayed in fiscal 2023. I will now turn it back over to Sanjay.

美光領先的產品發布使我們能夠很好地滿足以數據為中心的計算日益增長的性能要求。面對嚴峻的市場情勢，我們迅速果斷地削減供應和資本支出，以降低營運成本、提高生產力，並維持穩健且靈活的資產負債表。隨著 2024 財年業務的改善，我們將利用我們在技術、產品和製造方面的優勢，同時保持我們在 2023 財年所展現的生產力和資本紀律。我現在將把它轉回 Sanjay。

Thank you, Mark. The past 4 quarters tested the resilience and agility of our entire industry. While the recovery from this downturn has begun, Micron will exercise continued supply discipline to drive a return to sustained profitability. I'm proud of our team's response to adversity, sustaining our technology leadership, improving time to mature yield and launching a suite of leading-edge products that represent one of the strongest portfolio expansions in Micron's 45-year history.

謝謝你，馬克。過去的四個季度考驗了我們整個產業的韌性和敏捷性。雖然經濟已經開始從經濟低迷中復甦，但美光科技將繼續實行供應紀律，以推動恢復持續獲利。我為我們團隊應對逆境的能力感到自豪，他們保持了我們的技術領先地位，縮短了產量成熟的時間，並推出了一系列領先的產品，這些產品代表了美光45 年曆史上最強大的產品組合擴充之一。

As our global investment announcements throughout the year clearly show, Micron remains keenly focused on building our business to meet future demand driven by the proliferation of AI from the data center to the edge. I have full confidence in our team, the position we have built for Micron and our collective ability to capitalize on the opportunities ahead.

正如我們全年的全球投資公告所清楚表明的那樣，美光科技仍然熱衷於建立我們的業務，以滿足人工智慧從資料中心到邊緣的擴散所驅動的未來需求。我對我們的團隊、我們為美光建立的地位以及我們利用未來機會的集體能力充滿信心。

Thank you for joining us today. We will now open up for questions.

感謝您今天加入我們。我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question for today comes from the line of Tom O'Malley from Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Tom O'Malley。

I just want to understand the trajectory here on the NAND business. You guys, in the quarter, kind of took your demand profile from high-single digits to high teens, and you pointed out consumer in particular. What can you do to give us confidence that, that wasn't a pull-in from some of your large consumer customers and that later this year, there might be a little hole there? And just talk about the trajectory of where you see that business going, just given you said that bits are going to be down sequentially into November.

我只是想了解 NAND 業務的發展軌跡。你們，在本季度，將你們的需求狀況從高個位數提高到了高十幾歲，你們特別指出了消費者。您能做些什麼來讓我們相信，這不是來自您的一些大型消費者客戶的拉動，而且今年晚些時候，那裡可能會出現一個小漏洞？就談談你所看到的業務發展軌跡，假設你說這些數字將持續下降到 11 月。

So with respect to NAND, yes, I mean, compared to what we have said before, we saw a strong demand, particularly on the consumer, including some parts of the channel. And the consumer part included likes of smartphones, PCs, et cetera. And again, as I pointed out, the channel as well. And keep in mind, with the pricing that has existed for NAND, elasticity has certainly kicked in. The content is continuing to increase in the devices.

因此，就 NAND 而言，是的，我的意思是，與我們之前所說的相比，我們看到了強勁的需求，特別是消費者方面，包括通路的某些部分。消費者部分包括智慧型手機、個人電腦等。正如我所指出的，還有頻道。請記住，隨著 NAND 現有的定價，彈性肯定已經開始發揮作用。設備中的內容正在持續增加。

Today's flagship smartphones have minimum of 8 gigabyte DRAM and 128 gigabyte of NAND. So that's the overall trend. And same thing in PCs that the elasticity is driving increasing average capacities. And overall, certainly -- strategic buyers, they have influenced some of the NAND demand for the year as well. And keep in mind that next year, in 2024, we see that the demand growth will be pretty much close to the long-term CAGR for the NAND.

現今的旗艦智慧型手機至少配備 8 GB DRAM 和 128 GB NAND。這就是整體趨勢。在個人電腦中也是如此，彈性正在推動平均容量的增加。整體而言，策略買家當然也影響了今年的一些 NAND 需求。請記住，明年，也就是 2024 年，我們看到需求成長將非常接近 NAND 的長期複合年增長率。

And the strat buyers -- the strategic buyers that I mentioned, of course, they help improve the inventory position for NAND as well. So overall, of course, supply cuts have been made in NAND as well. And as we look ahead, we do see that the demand and supply fundamentals will continue to improve on the NAND side as well. And the inflection in pricing as well has occurred. And particularly in the second half of our fiscal year, we would see that continued improvement in the pricing as well.

當然，Strat買家——我提到的策略買家，他們也有助於改善NAND的庫存狀況。因此，總體而言，當然，NAND 的供應也有所減少。展望未來，我們確實看到 NAND 方面的需求和供應基本面也將持續改善。定價也發生了變化。特別是在我們財年的下半年，我們也會看到定價的持續改善。

Helpful. And then just as a follow-up, Obviously, you're facing headwinds from CAC [band.] Can you just talk about areas of the market where you guys are targeting to help make up some of those bits? Is it just conversations with customers in the consumer space, or are you looking at content increases in the data center? Just given the puts and takes of where you're making up that double-digit percentage hole. And if you see kind of any change to that? Is it getting worse, or is it getting better into February and May of this year?

有幫助。然後，作為後續行動，顯然，你們面臨著來自 CAC [樂隊] 的阻力。你們能談談你們的目標是幫助彌補其中一些方面的市場領域嗎？只是與消費者領域的客戶對話，還是您正在考慮資料中心的內容增加？只要考慮到你要彌補兩位數百分比差距的賣權和賣出選擇權。如果你看到這有什麼改變嗎？進入今年二五月，是變得更糟還是好轉？

So as we have mentioned before, the CAC headwinds are primarily in the data center and networking markets for us in China. And the impact -- the negative impact of revenue as a result of CAC decision is already baked in, in our CQ4 [results] and is also included in our CQ1 -- FQ1 guidance here. And keep in mind that the CAC decision, I mean, continues to remain a risk for our business and the impact in our China demand is meaningful.

正如我們之前提到的，CAC 的不利因素主要集中在我們在中國的資料中心和網路市場。 CAC 決策造成的收入負面影響已體現在我們的 CQ4 [結果] 中，也包含在我們的 CQ1 - FQ1 指導中。請記住，我的意思是，CAC 的決定仍然對我們的業務構成風險，對我們中國需求的影響是有意義的。

However, Micron has made strong progress with respect to mitigating the effects as well with our global customers who are not impacted by the CAC decision. And we are mitigating that and effect of the mitigation also is reflected in our FQ4 results as well as in FQ1 guidance. So the Q4 results and Q1 guidance reflect the net effect of the loss of revenue in China as well as the success with some of the mitigation.

然而，美光在減輕影響方面取得了巨大進展，我們的全球客戶也未受到 CAC 決定的影響。我們正在緩解這一問題，緩解的效果也反映在我們的第四季業績以及第一季指引中。因此，第四季度的業績和第一季的指導反映了中國收入損失的淨影響以及部分緩解措施的成功。

And of course, we are working on mitigating the China revenue loss with increases in demand for us across our multiple end markets across all our global end markets. And remember that our goal remains to maintain our global share. While there may be some ebbs and flows in the near term, but our goal absolutely remains to maintain our global market share here in terms of bits.

當然，隨著全球所有終端市場的多個終端市場對我們的需求增加，我們正在努力減輕中國的收入損失。請記住，我們的目標仍然是維持我們的全球份額。雖然短期內可能會出現一些起伏，但我們的目標絕對仍然是維持我們在比特方面的全球市場份額。

Our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I had a gross margin question for you, Mark. You're guiding November quarter up 5 percentage points sequentially. I was hoping you could provide a bridge, if you will, on a sequential basis. You talked a little bit about period cost continuing to be a headwind. You gave a little bit of color for the benefit you'll see from selling through written down inventory, but what are your thoughts on pricing, what are your thoughts on cost downs? And if you can give directional guidance for Feb and the puts and takes there, that would be helpful as well.

馬克，我有一個毛利率問題想問你。您預計 11 月季度將季成長 5 個百分點。如果你願意的話，我希望你能按順序提供一座橋樑。您談到了期間成本仍然是一個不利因素。您對透過減記庫存進行銷售所帶來的好處做了一些說明，但是您對定價有何看法，對降低成本有何看法？如果您能為二月以及那裡的看跌期權和看跌期權提供方向性指導，那也會很有幫助。

Sure, Toshiya. So on the fourth to first quarter bridge, as you mentioned, we are forecasting roughly a 500-basis point improvement. We did say over the last few quarters that this would be the profile of our improvement. I will say that it's gotten incrementally better in that we said before that our profile would be that we would be positive gross margin in the fourth quarter of fiscal '24. We now believe we'll be positive gross margin through fiscal '24, and so you'll see this positive margin trend continuing.

當然，東也。因此，正如您所提到的，從第四季度到第一季的過渡，我們預測大約會出現 500 個基點的改善。我們在過去幾季確實說過，這將是我們改進的概況。我想說的是，情況已經逐漸好轉，因為我們之前說過，我們的概況是我們將在 24 財年第四季實現正毛利率。我們現在相信，到 24 財年，我們的毛利率將保持正值，因此您會看到這種正的利潤率趨勢持續下去。

As it relates to the first quarter, we do get a small benefit, roughly 1 point of incremental low-cost inventory pass-through from what passes through in the first quarter, which will be around $600 million versus what we had pass-through in the fourth quarter, which was roughly $550 million. We also will see a slight benefit in price in the first quarter.

由於與第一季相關，我們確實獲得了一點好處，與第一季相比，低成本庫存轉嫁增加了約 1 個百分點，與我們去年轉嫁的金額相比，這將約為 6 億美元。第第四季約為5.5 億美元。我們還將看到第一季價格略有上漲。

As we've mentioned in the last several quarters, we first saw pockets of improvement. And then we mentioned that price was bottoming. We're mentioning on this call that it has bottomed, and we are seeing in the first quarter price improvement. And we expect that in this transition period to be somewhat muted in the first half and then pick up momentum and strengthen considerably in the second half. So that's the general walk for the first quarter.

正如我們在過去幾個季度中提到的，我們首先看到了一些改進。然後我們提到價格正在觸底。我們在這次電話會議中提到，它已經觸底，我們看到第一季的價格有所改善。我們預計，在這個過渡時期，上半年會減弱，然後下半年會回升並大幅加強。這就是第一季的整體情況。

I will -- because there's a lot of puts and takes, maybe just -- it's been a very difficult several quarters around both utilization write-downs. And fortunately, we're on the other side of that, which we can cover later in this call or the after call.

我會——因為有很多看跌期權和看跌期權，也許只是——這兩個季度的利用率減記都是非常困難的。幸運的是，我們處於另一邊，我們可以在稍後的電話會議或後續電話會議中討論這一點。

And then maybe as a quick follow-up on HBM for Sanjay. 3 months ago, you guys talked about or at least hinted that in fiscal '24, you might be able to generate several hundred million dollars in revenue. Is that sort of target still intact? Have things improved since then? And I guess, at what point do you expect your presence in HBM to be similar to your presence in DRAM overall?

然後也許可以作為 Sanjay 對 HBM 的快速跟進。 3個月前，你們談到或至少暗示，在24財年，你們可能會產生數億美元的收入。這樣的目標還完好無損嗎？從那以後情況有改善嗎？我想，您預計在什麼時候您在 HBM 的業務將與您在 DRAM 的業務相似？

We are very excited with our HBM product. It is an industry-leading product with respect to performance, power, capacity, capability. And as we have mentioned, this product is in the qualification stages with our customers here, and we expect revenue to begin in early 2024. And yes, we are very much still on track for meaningful revenue, several hundred million dollars in our fiscal year '24. So pleased with the progress, continuing to make good progress. It is an exciting opportunity for the memory industry. And Micron will be well positioned to capture the generative AI opportunities that require the kind of attributes that our HBM3E memory brings to the market.

我們對 HBM 產品感到非常興奮。它在性能、功率、容量、能力方面都是業界領先的產品。正如我們所提到的，該產品正處於我們客戶的資格認證階段，我們預計收入將於 2024 年初開始。是的，我們仍然有望實現有意義的收入，在我們的財年中達到數億美元' 24。對進展感到高興，並持續取得良好進展。對於記憶體產業來說，這是一個令人興奮的機會。美光將處於有利位置，能夠抓住生成式人工智慧機會，這些機會需要我們的 HBM3E 記憶體為市場帶來的屬性。

And of course, as we proceed through the fiscal year, we expect to be gaining share in this important part of the -- in this important high-growth part of the memory market.

當然，隨著本財年的進展，我們預計將在記憶體市場的這一重要高成長部分中獲得更多份額。

Our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的 Timothy Arcuri。

Mark, I wanted to clarify the statement on gross margins. So you had said in the prepared remarks that it would be positive in the back half of the fiscal year. But in response to the question just before, you said that it will be positive through fiscal '24. So since you're guiding negative in fiscal Q1, does that tell us that fiscal Q2 gross margin will be positive?

馬克，我想澄清一下毛利率的說法。因此，您在準備好的發言中表示，本財年後半段的情況將是正面的。但在回答先前的問題時，您表示，到 24 財年這將是正面的。那麼，既然您在第一財季的指導為負，這是否告訴我們第二財季的毛利率將為正值？

Good question, Tim. I didn't comment on fiscal Q2. Fiscal Q3, we believe, will be positive. And there'll be a trend of improving gross margin fiscal Q1 through fiscal Q3.

好問題，提姆。我沒有對第二財季發表評論。我們相信第三財季將是正面的。第一財季到第三財季的毛利率將呈現改善趨勢。

Okay. So you don't want to state that fiscal Q2 will be positive. Maybe it will be, maybe it won't be.

好的。所以你不想說第二財季將會是正面的。也許會，也許不會。

It may be. It depends on, of course, pricing. And we're continuing to drive productivity, and we'll just have to see it. These profitability levels, mix and other things matter. I mean we do have favorable mix of DRAM going into the first half. We're increasing DRAM relative to NAND in the first half of the year, so that helps. Pricing, the momentum is definitively positive. It's just a case of we're in a transition period. We did see -- we kind of had to meet the market on some special deals here in the fourth quarter, and yes, those effects will continue in the first half. But we're definitely seeing new deals being struck at higher prices, and we certainly expect that to strengthen in the second half.

可能是的。當然，這取決於定價。我們正在繼續提高生產力，我們只需要看到這一點。這些獲利水準、組合和其他因素都很重要。我的意思是，上半年我們確實擁有有利的 DRAM 組合。今年上半年我們增加了 DRAM 相對於 NAND 的數量，因此這會有所幫助。定價方面，勢頭絕對是正面的。這只是我們正處於過渡時期的一個例子。我們確實看到 - 我們必須在第四季度在一些特殊交易上滿足市場需求，是的，這些影響將在上半年繼續。但我們肯定會看到新交易以更高的價格達成，我們當然預計下半年這種情況將會加強。

Got it. And then as follow-up, just on that comment you just made about "special deals" that you struck in fiscal Q4. NAND demand, you're more positive on NAND demand, but pricing was still as bad, if not worse, than at least I thought it would have been inside of fiscal Q4. So is -- can you kind of [foot] that? Is that maybe you offering some big deals on the NAND side, some customers coming in and being opportunistic and you offering some big deals to move bits and maybe shore up your NAND share but at the expensive price? Can you just walk through that for us?

知道了。然後作為後續行動，就您剛剛發表的有關您在第四財季達成的“特別交易”的評論而言。 NAND 需求，您對 NAND 需求更加樂觀，但定價仍然與我想像的第四財季內的情況一樣糟糕，甚至更糟。那麼，你能做到這一點嗎？是不是你在 NAND 方面提供了一些大交易，一些客戶進來並伺機而動，你提供了一些大交易來轉移比特，也許可以支撐你的 NAND 份額，但價格昂貴？能為我們簡單介紹一下嗎？

Yes. I would say, Tim, that really NAND pricing was not -- was basically in line with the downs that we saw in the third quarter. So I would say that prices -- the decrease had slowed and that the price -- or the market was beginning to firm up. Customers realize that this is a period that's ending, the market is firming up. And so there's also some mix effects in there. We do see price and NAND improving in the first quarter. It will be up actually in the first quarter. And so I think that's all, I'd say, on price for NAND.

是的。蒂姆，我想說的是，NAND 定價實際上與我們在第三季度看到的下跌基本一致。所以我想說的是，價格——下降已經放緩，價格——或者市場開始堅挺。客戶意識到這個時期即將結束，市場正在走強。所以那裡還有一些混合效果。我們確實看到第一季價格和 NAND 有所改善。實際上第一季就會上升。所以我認為這就是 NAND 價格的全部內容。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini from Susquehanna Financial Group.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Susquehanna Financial Group 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Yes. Two follow-ups. I would like to better understand the dynamics of seasonality. You talked about the NAND-based shipment declining in the Q1 fiscal year and most of the growth coming from DRAM. But how should we think about seasonality impact in February quarter? And I have a follow-up.

是的。兩個後續。我想更了解季節性的動態。您談到第一財年第一季基於 NAND 的出貨量下降，而大部分成長來自 DRAM。但我們該如何看待二月季度的季節性影響呢？我有一個後續行動。

So certainly, the typical seasonality will be in place. But just keep in mind that at Q4, we had a very strong sequential bit growth in the NAND business. And I mean, coming off that big sequential growth, we are just guiding to normalized level of overall shipments as part of FQ1. And overall, again, the content continues to increase across the end market applications, and that will continue to drive increased demand growth for us as well.

所以當然，典型的季節性將會就位。但請記住，在第四季度，我們的 NAND 業務出現了非常強勁的連續位成長。我的意思是，在經歷了大幅連續成長之後，我們只是將第一季整體出貨量的正常化水準作為第一季的一部分。總的來說，終端市場應用程式的內容持續增加，這也將繼續推動我們的需求成長。

So would there be seasonality in February quarter?

那麼二月這個季度會有季節性嗎？

Well, typical seasonality trends that exist in the consumer market would be there, but keep in mind that it all depends on the mix of the business as well for us. In terms of NAND, we have already guided to the trends. But overall, when we look at the full year basis, we would look at that calendar year '24, NAND will be growing in line with the long-term CAGR or near the long-term CAGR. And DRAM will be growing in terms of demand, much ahead of the long-term CAGR as well. And all of that will, of course, take into account the typical seasonality that occurs in the industry.

嗯，消費市場中存在的典型季節性趨勢將會存在，但請記住，這一切都取決於我們的業務組合。在NAND方面，我們已經引導了趨勢。但總的來說，當我們考慮全年的基礎時，我們會考慮24日曆年，NAND的成長將與長期複合年增長率一致或接近長期複合年增長率。 DRAM 的需求也將成長，也遠遠超過長期複合年增長率。當然，所有這些都將考慮到該行業發生的典型季節性。

Great. And second question has to do with the puts and takes in reducing wafer starts. And I understand that more emphasis is on the trailing edge. But as I think about memory, like there is no trailing edge. And in that context, as you think about bringing utilization rate back up to the normal level then some of the trailing edge converted to the leading edge. Could that help with a bigger step-up in gross margin improvement? How should we think about it, assuming that the trailing edge would be phased out?

偉大的。第二個問題與減少晶圓開工的投入和投入有關。我知道更多的重點是後緣。但當我想到記憶時，好像沒有後緣。在這種情況下，當您考慮將利用率恢復到正常水平時，一些後緣將轉換為前緣。這是否有助於進一步提高毛利率？假設後緣將被逐步淘汰，我們該如何看待它？

Well, good question. And I think I would like to take the opportunity to provide some context here and overall background. As you know that in 2023, the industry has experienced extreme oversupply and extreme negative effect on the profitability as well. And you see now that CapEx cuts and underutilization in the fab have been implemented across the industry, given the CapEx constraints that we have as well as given the poor profitability.

嗯，好問題。我想我想藉此機會提供一些背景資訊和整體背景。大家知道，2023年，業界出現了極度的供給過剩，獲利能力也受到了極度的負面影響。現在您會看到，鑑於我們所面臨的資本支出限制以及盈利能力不佳，整個行業都已實施了資本支出削減和晶圓廠利用率不足的情況。

And certainly, Micron has done that, but this is happening across the industry as well. And at the same time, the demand for the new products is increasing that require as you were pointing out, leading-edge technology as well. And in order to maintain our supply discipline, and to meet the demand for these new products such as HBM such as GDDR5. We are shifting some of our equipment from older nodes into the newer technologies to ramp up those newer technologies into production.

當然，美光已經做到了這一點，但整個產業也正在發生這種情況。同時，對新產品的需求不斷增加，正如您所指出的，這也需要領先的技術。為了維持我們的供應紀律，並滿足對 GDDR5 等 HBM 等新產品的需求。我們正在將一些設備從舊節點轉移到更新的技術，以將這些更新的技術投入生產。

In the past, we would have done this with more CapEx, but we are being extremely mindful of CapEx spend, extremely disciplined about supply. So as a result, when we move the equipment from older nodes to support the ramp-up of leading-edge nodes, it results in a net reduction in overall -- in a net reduction in the structural reduction in the wafer capacity as well. And that overall bodes well for the industry demand-supply fundamentals. So keep in mind that as we go through the year and as we shift more of the equipment toward ramp-up of leading-edge nodes, this will result in overall wafer capacity reduction and lowering underutilization as well. Of course, the legacy nodes will continue to have underutilization through the course of the year. And these are all helpful factors in terms of the demand/supply balance in the industry. And some of the phenomena that we have described regarding structural wafer capacity reduction, this is not unique to Micron.

在過去，我們會用更多的資本支出來做到這一點，但我們非常注意資本支出，對供應非常嚴格。因此，當我們將設備從舊節點轉移到支援前沿節點的提升時，它會導致總體淨減少——晶圓產能結構性減少的淨減少。整體而言，這對產業供需基本面來說是個好兆頭。因此請記住，隨著這一年的到來，當我們將更多設備轉向前沿節點的提升時，這將導致整體晶圓產能減少並降低利用率不足的情況。當然，遺留節點在這一年將繼續處於利用率不足的狀態。這些都是產業供需平衡的有益因素。我們所描述的一些關於結構性晶圓產能減少的現象，這並不是美光獨有的。

We believe this is happening with other suppliers as well as they grapple with the same supply, profitability and CapEx considerations as we are addressing. So the reduction in wafer capacity is actually the headwind in supply growth. And this you know that increasing wafer capacity has a high bar for ROI -- CapEx investments, it has a high bar in terms of ROI. And of course, it would require longer lead time as well given the new equipment that would be required. So structural reduction in wafer capacity is overall good, coupled with the underutilization in the legacy nodes. And as we pointed out, the new products in the leading-edge nodes also do require more wafer capacity for the same gigabits of production, given the nature of like HBM, that where the die size is twice as big.

我們相信其他供應商也正在發生這種情況，並且他們也面臨著與我們所解決的相同的供應、盈利能力和資本支出方面的考慮。因此，晶圓產能的減少實際上是供應成長的阻力。你知道，增加晶圓產能對投資報酬率來說有很高的標準——資本支出投資，它在投資報酬率方面有很高的標準。當然，考慮到所需的新設備，也需要更長的交貨時間。因此，晶圓產能的結構性減少總體上是好的，再加上遺留節點的利用率不足。正如我們所指出的，考慮到 HBM 的性質（晶片尺寸是原來的兩倍），前沿節點中的新產品確實需要更多的晶圓產能來實現相同的千兆位元生產。

So these new products also actually have a favorable impact on the industry supply growth capability. And these trends of supply growth with respect to structural wafer capacity reduction and the new products that end up requiring more new wafer capacity are extremely important. It factors in terms of really understanding the improving, strengthening demand supply fundamentals as we look at our fiscal year '24 and calendar year 2024.

所以這些新產品其實也對產業供給成長能力產生了有利的影響。結構性晶圓產能減少以及最終需要更多新晶圓產能的新產品的供應成長趨勢極為重要。當我們審視 24 財年和 2024 日曆年時，它會真正理解不斷改善、加強的需求供應基本面。

Thank you, and this does conclude the question-and-answer session as well as today's program. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation. You may now disconnect. Good day.

謝謝大家，問答環節和今天的節目到此結束。謝謝女士們先生們的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。再會。