美光科技 (MU) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to Micron's First Quarter 2023 Financial Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎來到美光 2023 年第一季度財務電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Farhan Ahmad, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給您的發言人，投資者關係主管 Farhan Ahmad。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to Micron Technology's Fiscal First Quarter 2023 Financial Conference Call. On the call with me today are Sanjay Mehrotra, our President and CEO; and Mark Murphy, our CFO. Today's call is being webcast on our Investor Relations site at investors.micron.com including audio and slides. In addition, the press release detailing our quarterly results has been posted on the website along with the prepared remarks for this call.

謝謝，歡迎來到美光科技 2023 財年第一季度財務電話會議。今天與我通電話的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Sanjay Mehrotra；和我們的首席財務官 Mark Murphy。今天的電話會議正在我們的投資者關係網站 investors.micron.com 上進行網絡直播，包括音頻和幻燈片。此外，詳細介紹我們季度業績的新聞稿連同為本次電話會議準備的評論已發佈在網站上。

Today's discussion of financial results is presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures may be found on our website. We encourage you to visit our website at micron.com throughout the quarter for the most current information on the company, including information on the financial conferences that we may be attending. You can follow us on Twitter at MicronTech.

除非另有說明，否則今天對財務結果的討論是在非 GAAP 財務基礎上提出的。可以在我們的網站上找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務措施的對賬。我們鼓勵您在整個季度訪問我們的網站 micron.com，以獲取有關公司的最新信息，包括我們可能參加的金融會議的信息。您可以在 MicronTech 的 Twitter 上關注我們。

As a reminder, the matters we are discussing today include forward-looking statements regarding market demand and supply, our expected results and other matters. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made today. We refer you to the documents we filed with the SEC, including our most recent Form 10-K and 10-Q for a discussion of the risks that may affect our future results. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, performance or achievements. We are under no duty to update any of the forward-looking statements to conform these statements to actual results.

提醒一下，我們今天討論的事項包括有關市場需求和供應的前瞻性陳述、我們的預期結果和其他事項。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，可能導致實際結果與今天所做的陳述存在重大差異。我們建議您參考我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括我們最近的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格，以討論可能影響我們未來業績的風險。儘管我們認為前瞻性陳述中反映的預期是合理的，但我們無法保證未來的結果、活動水平、績效或成就。我們沒有義務更新任何前瞻性陳述以使這些陳述符合實際結果。

I'll now turn the call over to Sanjay.

我現在將電話轉給 Sanjay。

Thank you, Farhan. Good afternoon, everyone. Micron delivered fiscal first quarter revenue and EPS within our guidance range despite the pricing environment, which deteriorated significantly from our prior call. The industry is experiencing the most severe imbalance between supply and demand in both DRAM and NAND in the last 13 years.

謝謝你，法漢。大家下午好。儘管定價環境比我們之前的預測顯著惡化，但美光第一財季的收入和每股收益都在我們的指導範圍內。該行業正在經歷過去 13 年來 DRAM 和 NAND 最嚴重的供需失衡。

Micron is exercising supply discipline by making significant cuts to our CapEx and wafer starts while maintaining our competitive position. We are also taking measures to cut costs and OpEx across the company. Customer inventory, which is impacting near-term demand is expected to continue improving, and we expect most customers to have reduced inventory to relatively healthy levels by mid-calendar 2023. Consequently, we expect the fiscal second half revenue to improve versus the first half of our fiscal year. We expect our days of inventory to peak in our current fiscal Q2 and gradually improve over the next few quarters as our bit shipments improve and our supply growth is significantly reduced.

美光通過大幅削減我們的資本支出和晶圓啟動來執行供應紀律，同時保持我們的競爭地位。我們還在採取措施削減整個公司的成本和運營支出。影響近期需求的客戶庫存預計將繼續改善，我們預計到 2023 年中期，大多數客戶的庫存將減少到相對健康的水平。因此，我們預計下半財年的收入將比上半年有所改善我們的財政年度。我們預計我們的庫存天數將在當前第二財季達到頂峰，並在未來幾個季度隨著我們的比特出貨量增加和供應增長顯著減少而逐漸改善。

Despite this improving bit shipment and revenue trajectory, we expect industry profitability to remain challenged through calendar 2023. The combination of our technology leadership, manufacturing expertise, diverse product portfolio, a strong balance sheet and our decisive actions provide a solid footing to navigate this challenging near-term environment.

儘管比特出貨量和收入軌蹟有所改善，但我們預計到 2023 年行業盈利能力仍將面臨挑戰。我們的技術領先地位、製造專業知識、多樣化的產品組合、強大的資產負債表和我們果斷的行動相結合，為應對這一挑戰奠定了堅實的基礎近期環境。

I'll start today with an overview of our technology position. Micron continues to lead the industry in both DRAM and NAND technology. We are first to market with 1-beta DRAM and 232-layer NAND. While both 1-beta DRAM and 232-layer NAND offer strong cost reductions, we have slowed their ramps to better align our supply with market demand, as we previously indicated. Yield trajectory for these nodes is on track, and we are continuing to qualify these nodes across our product portfolio and will be well positioned to ramp these nodes when industry conditions improve. Our 1-beta DRAM node, which we introduced in fiscal Q1 delivers around a 15% power efficiency improvement and more than 35% bit density improvement versus 1-alpha. One beta will be used across our product portfolio, including DDR5, LP5, HBM and graphics.

我將從今天開始概述我們的技術地位。美光繼續在 DRAM 和 NAND 技術領域處於行業領先地位。我們率先將 1-beta DRAM 和 232 層 NAND 推向市場。雖然 1-beta DRAM 和 232 層 NAND 都可以大幅降低成本，但正如我們之前指出的那樣，我們已經放慢了它們的增長速度，以更好地使我們的供應與市場需求保持一致。這些節點的收益軌跡正在走上正軌，我們將繼續在我們的產品組合中對這些節點進行鑑定，並將在行業條件改善時做好準備來增加這些節點。我們在第一財季推出的 1-beta DRAM 節點與 1-alpha 相比，能效提高了約 15%，位密度提高了 35% 以上。一個測試版將用於我們的產品組合，包括 DDR5、LP5、HBM 和顯卡。

Now turning to our end markets. across nearly all of our end markets, revenues declined sequentially in fiscal Q1 due to weaker demand and steep decline in pricing. Shipment volumes were impacted by our customers' inventory adjustments, the trajectory of their end demand and macroeconomic uncertainty. We believe that aggregate customer inventory while still high, is coming down in absolute volume as end market consumption outpaces shipping. In data center, we expect cloud demand for memory in 2023 to grow well below the historical trend due to the significant impact of inventory reductions at key customers. End demand at cloud customers is not immune to macroeconomic challenges, but should strengthen once the economic environment improves.

現在轉向我們的終端市場。在我們幾乎所有的終端市場，由於需求疲軟和定價急劇下降，第一財季的收入連續下降。出貨量受到客戶庫存調整、終端需求軌跡和宏觀經濟不確定性的影響。我們認為，客戶總庫存雖然仍然很高，但隨著終端市場消費超過航運，其絕對數量正在下降。在數據中心，由於關鍵客戶庫存減少的重大影響，我們預計 2023 年雲對內存的需求增長將遠低於歷史趨勢。雲客戶的終端需求不能免受宏觀經濟挑戰的影響，但一旦經濟環境改善，就會增強。

DDR5 is extremely important for data center customers as the industry begins to transition to this new technology in calendar Q1. As modern servers pack more processing cores into CPUs, the memory bandwidth per CPU core has been decreasing. Micron D5 alleviates this bottleneck by providing higher bandwidth compared to previous generations enabling improved performance and scaling. Feedback from our customers across the x86, and ARM ecosystem suggests that Micron leads the industry with the best D5 products. We expect server D5 bit shipments to become more meaningful in the second half of calendar 2023, with crossover expected in mid-calendar 2024.

DDR5 對於數據中心客戶來說極其重要，因為該行業在日曆 Q1 開始過渡到這項新技術。隨著現代服務器將更多處理核心裝入 CPU，每個 CPU 核心的內存帶寬一直在下降。美光 D5 通過提供比前幾代產品更高的帶寬來緩解這一瓶頸，從而提高性能和擴展性。來自 x86 和 ARM 生態系統客戶的反饋表明，美光以最好的 D5 產品引領行業。我們預計服務器 D5 位出貨量將在 2023 年下半年變得更有意義，預計在 2024 年中期實現交叉。

Building on our existing D5 products, in fiscal Q1, we began qualifying 1-alpha 24-gigabit D5, and we announced availability of D5 memory for the data center that is validated for the new AMD EPYC 9004 cities processors. In addition, we are also making progress on CXL. And in fiscal Q1, we introduced our first CXL DRAM samples to data center customers. In data center SSDs, we are continuing to proliferate our 176-layer SSD. And in fiscal Q1, we nearly doubled the number of customers where we are qualified. We have also completed qualification of our 176-layer QLC with an important enterprise customer. In PCs, we now forecast calendar 2022 units to decline in the high-teens percentage and expect 2023 PC unit volume to decline by low to mid-single-digit percentage to near 2019 levels. Client D5 adoption is expected to gradually increase through calendar 2023, with crossover in mid-calendar 2024 and we are well positioned for this transition with leading D5 products.

在我們現有的 D5 產品的基礎上，在第一財季，我們開始對 1-alpha 24 吉位 D5 進行認證，並宣佈為數據中心提供 D5 內存，該內存已針對新的 AMD EPYC 9004 城市處理器進行驗證。此外，我們也在CXL上取得進展。在第一財季，我們向數據中心客戶推出了第一批 CXL DRAM 樣品。在數據中心 SSD 中，我們正在繼續推廣我們的 176 層 SSD。在第一財季，我們合格的客戶數量幾乎翻了一番。我們還與一家重要的企業客戶完成了 176 層 QLC 的認證。在 PC 方面，我們現在預測 2022 年的日曆單位將下降十幾%，並預計 2023 年 PC 的單位數量將下降到中低個位數百分比，接近 2019 年的水平。預計到 2023 年，客戶對 D5 的採用將逐漸增加，並在 2024 年中期進行交叉，我們憑藉領先的 D5 產品為這一轉變做好了充分準備。

We also continue to lead the industry in QLC, and it is an important competitive advantage for us. In fiscal Q1, client and consumer QLC SSDs had very strong growth which helped increase our NAND QLC mix to a new record. Earlier this month, Micron began shipping the world's most advanced client SSD, featuring 232-layer NAND technology. As the world's first client SSD to ship using NAND over 200 layers, the Micron 2550 NVMe SSD demonstrates superior speed, density and power savings enabled by our industry-leading NAND node.

我們還在QLC方面繼續引領行業，這對我們來說是一個重要的競爭優勢。在第一財季，客戶和消費者 QLC SSD 增長非常強勁，這有助於將我們的 NAND QLC 組合增加到新的記錄。本月早些時候，美光開始出貨世界上最先進的客戶端 SSD，採用 232 層 NAND 技術。作為全球首款使用超過 200 層 NAND 的客戶端 SSD，美光 2550 NVMe SSD 展示了我們行業領先的 NAND 節點所支持的卓越速度、密度和節能效果。

In graphics, we expect bit growth to outpace the broader market in calendar 2023. Micron continues to drive the industry's fastest graphics memory with 24 gigabit per second, 16-gigabit GDDR6X shipping in high-volume production. In mobile, we now expect calendar 2022 smartphone unit volume to decline 10% year-over-year versus our high single-digit percentage decline projection last earnings call. We forecast calendar year 2023 smartphone unit volume to be flattish to slightly up year-over-year driven by improvements in China following the reopening of its economy. Micron continues to build on a strong product momentum in mobile. As of fiscal Q1, 1-alpha comprise nearly 90% of mobile DRAM base and 176-layer made up nearly all of our mobile NAND bit shipments. We are also well positioned for the LP5 transition and in FQ1, the majority of our mobile DRAM bit shipments were LP5.

在圖形方面，我們預計到 2023 年，位元增長將超過更廣泛的市場。美光繼續推動業界最快的圖形內存，每秒 24 吉比特，16 吉比特 GDDR6X 在大批量生產中出貨。在移動領域，我們現在預計 2022 年智能手機出貨量將同比下降 10%，而我們上次財報電話會議預測的降幅為高個位數。我們預測 2023 年智能手機出貨量將持平至同比略有增長，這得益於中國經濟重新開放後的改善。美光繼續在移動領域建立強大的產品勢頭。截至第一財季，1-alpha 佔移動 DRAM 基礎的近 90%，而 176 層幾乎占我們所有的移動 NAND 位出貨量。我們也為 LP5 過渡做好了準備，在 FQ1 中，我們的大部分移動 DRAM 位出貨量都是 LP5。

In fiscal Q1, our LP5X was validated for Qualcomm's latest platform and integrated into Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 reference designs. In addition, we shipped the industry's first 1-beta DRAM qualification samples with our 16-gigabit LP5. Last, I'll cover the auto and industrial end markets.

在第一財季，我們的 LP5X 針對 Qualcomm 的最新平台進行了驗證，並集成到 Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 參考設計中。此外，我們還通過我們的 16-gigabit LP5 交付了業界首批 1-beta DRAM 鑑定樣品。最後，我將介紹汽車和工業終端市場。

Micron is well positioned as a leader in automotive and industrial markets, which offer strong long-term growth and relatively stable margins. In fiscal Q1, auto revenues grew approximately 30% year-over-year, just slightly below our quarterly record in fiscal Q4 2022. The automotive industry is showing early signs of supply chain improvement and auto unit production continues to increase. The macro environment does create some uncertainty for the auto market but we see robust growth in auto memory demand in fiscal 2023. This is driven by the volume ramp of advanced next-generation in-vehicle infotainment systems as well as the broader adoption of more advanced driver assistance systems. Over the next 5 years, we expect the bit growth CAGR for DRAM and NAND in autos to be at approximately twice the rate of the overall DRAM and NAND markets.

美光在汽車和工業市場處於領先地位，可提供強勁的長期增長和相對穩定的利潤率。在第一財季，汽車收入同比增長約 30%，略低於我們在 2022 財年第四季度的季度記錄。汽車行業顯示出供應鏈改善的早期跡象，汽車單位產量繼續增加。宏觀環境確實給汽車市場帶來了一些不確定性，但我們預計 2023 財年汽車內存需求將強勁增長。這是由先進的下一代車載信息娛樂系統的銷量增長以及更先進的更廣泛採用所推動的駕駛輔助系統。在接下來的 5 年裡，我們預計汽車 DRAM 和 NAND 的位元增長率 CAGR 大約是整個 DRAM 和 NAND 市場增長率的兩倍。

The industrial market saw continued softening in Q1 as our distribution channel partners reduced their inventory levels and end demand weakens for some customers. The fundamentals of industrial IoT, AI, ML, 5G and Industry 4.0, all remain intact, and we expect volumes to improve in the second half of our fiscal year. In our fiscal first quarter, Micron continued to collaborate closely with customers and achieved advanced product sampling and design-in across automation, OEMs, ODMs and integrators with our latest generation of D5, LP5 and 3D NAND solutions.

由於我們的分銷渠道合作夥伴降低了庫存水平，並且一些客戶的終端需求減弱，因此第一季度工業市場持續走軟。工業物聯網、人工智能、機器學習、5G 和工業 4.0 的基本面都完好無損，我們預計本財年下半年的銷量將有所改善。在我們的第一財季，美光繼續與客戶密切合作，並通過我們最新一代的 D5、LP5 和 3D NAND 解決方案，實現了跨自動化、OEM、ODM 和集成商的高級產品採樣和設計。

Now turning to our market outlook. We expect calendar 2022 industry bit demand growth in the low to mid-single-digit percentage range for both DRAM and NAND. For calendar 2023, we expect industry demand growth of approximately 10% in DRAM and around 20% in NAND. For both years, demand in DRAM and NAND is well below historical trends and future expectations of growth largely due to reductions in end demand in most markets, high inventories at customers, the impact of the macroeconomic environment and the regional factors in Europe and China.

現在轉向我們的市場前景。我們預計 DRAM 和 NAND 的 2022 日曆年行業比特需求將在中低個位數百分比範圍內增長。對於 2023 日曆年，我們預計 DRAM 行業需求增長約 10%，NAND 行業需求增長約 20%。這兩年，DRAM 和 NAND 的需求遠低於歷史趨勢和未來增長預期，這主要是由於大多數市場終端需求減少、客戶高庫存、宏觀經濟環境的影響以及歐洲和中國的區域因素。

Near term, over the next few months, we expect gradually improving demand trends for memory as customer inventory levels improve further, new CPU platforms are launched and China demand starts to grow as the economy reopens. Longer term (inaudible) with DRAM bit demand CAGR in mid-teens percentage range and NAND bit demand CAGR in low to mid 20s percentage range. Our long-term demand bit growth expectations for both DRAM and NAND have declined from our expectation earlier this year primarily due to lowered growth expectations from PC and smartphone markets and some moderation in the strong long-term growth in the cloud.

短期內，在接下來的幾個月裡，我們預計隨著客戶庫存水平的進一步提高、新的 CPU 平台的推出以及中國需求隨著經濟的重新開放而開始增長，內存需求趨勢將逐漸改善。長期（聽不清）DRAM 位需求 CAGR 處於中等百分比範圍內，NAND 位需求 CAGR 處於中低 20 百分比範圍內。我們對 DRAM 和 NAND 的長期需求位增長預期均低於我們今年早些時候的預期，這主要是由於 PC 和智能手機市場的增長預期下調以及雲的強勁長期增長有所放緩。

Turning to industry supply growth. Industry supply growth in calendar 2022 for DRAM and NAND is closer to their respective long-term demand CAGRs and well above the industry demand growth in calendar 2022. Given the current pricing and resulting industry margins, we expect a significant decline in industry capital investments as well as a reduction in utilization rates for the industry. We expect that DRAM and NAND industry supply growth in calendar year 2023 will be well below their long-term CAGR and also well below expected demand growth in 2023.

轉向行業供應增長。 DRAM 和 NAND 的 2022 日曆年行業供應增長更接近其各自的長期需求復合年增長率，遠高於 2022 日曆年的行業需求增長。鑑於當前定價和由此產生的行業利潤率，我們預計行業資本投資將大幅下降，因為以及行業利用率的降低。我們預計 2023 年 DRAM 和 NAND 行業的供應增長將遠低於其長期復合年增長率，也遠低於 2023 年的預期需求增長。

Due to the significant supply/demand mismatch entering calendar 2023, we expect that profitability will remain challenged throughout 2023. The timing of the recovery in profitability will be driven by the rate and pace at which supply and demand are brought into balance and inventories are normalized across the supply chain. We believe that negative year-on-year calendar 2023 industry DRAM bit supply growth and flattish year-on-year calendar 2023, industry NAND bit supply growth would accelerate this recovery.

由於進入 2023 年時供需嚴重失衡，我們預計整個 2023 年盈利能力仍將面臨挑戰。盈利能力恢復的時間將取決於供需平衡和庫存正常化的速度和步伐貫穿整個供應鏈。我們認為，2023 年行業 DRAM 比特供應同比負增長和 2023 年行業 NAND 比特供應同比持平增長將加速這一複蘇。

Micron is taking a number of decisive actions in this environment to align supply with demand and to protect our balance sheet. First, we are reducing our CapEx investments to reduce bit supply growth in 2023 and 2024. Our fiscal 2023 CapEx is being lowered to a range between $7 billion to $7.5 billion from the earlier $8 billion target and the $12 billion level in fiscal year '22. This represents approximately a 40% reduction year-on-year and we expect fiscal 2023 WFE to be down more than 50% year-on-year. We are now significantly reducing our fiscal 2024 CapEx from earlier plans to align with the supply-demand environment. We expect fiscal 2024 WFE to fall from fiscal 2023 levels even as construction spending increases year-on-year.

美光在這種環境下採取了一系列果斷行動，以調整供需關係並保護我們的資產負債表。首先，我們正在減少我們的資本支出投資，以減少 2023 年和 2024 年的比特供應增長。我們將 2023 財年的資本支出從之前的 80 億美元目標和 22 財年的 120 億美元水平降至 70 億美元至 75 億美元之間.這意味著同比下降約 40%，我們預計 2023 財年 WFE 將同比下降 50% 以上。我們現在正在大幅減少 2024 財年的資本支出，以適應供需環境。我們預計 2024 財年 WFE 將低於 2023 財年的水平，即使建築支出同比增加。

Second, we have reduced near-term bit supply through a sharp reduction in wafer starts. As we have previously announced, we reduced wafer starts for DRAM and NAND by approximately 20%. Through a combination of these actions, we expect our calendar 2023 production bit growth to be negative in DRAM and up only slightly in NAND. Given the manufacturing cycle times, the full impact of the wafer start reductions on supply will be realized starting in our fiscal Q3. Due to our reductions to our fiscal 2024 WFE CapEx, our bit supply levels in 2024 will be materially reduced from the prior trajectory. We continue to target a relatively flat share of industry bit supply.

其次，我們通過大幅減少晶圓啟動來減少近期比特供應。正如我們之前宣布的那樣，我們將 DRAM 和 NAND 的晶圓啟動減少了大約 20%。通過這些行動的組合，我們預計我們日曆 2023 年的 DRAM 生產位增長將為負，而 NAND 僅略有增長。考慮到製造週期時間，晶圓開始減少對供應的全部影響將從我們的第三財季開始實現。由於我們減少了 2024 財年的 WFE 資本支出，我們 2024 年的比特供應水平將比之前的軌跡大幅下降。我們繼續以行業位供應的相對持平為目標。

Third, in response to the decline in expected long-term CAGR for DRAM and NAND bit growth, we are slowing the cadence of our process technology node transitions. This change will help us align our long-term bit supply CAGR with demand and help improve the ROI of our R&D and CapEx investments. Given our decision to slow the 1-beta DRAM production ramp, we expect that our 1-gamma introduction will now be in 2025. Similarly, our next NAND node beyond 232-layer will be delayed to align to the new demand outlook and required supply growth. We expect these changes to the technology node cadence to be an industry-wide phenomenon. With our industry-leading technology capability, we expect to remain very well positioned.

第三，為了應對 DRAM 和 NAND 位增長的預期長期 CAGR 下降，我們正在放慢工藝技術節點轉換的節奏。這一變化將幫助我們使我們的長期比特供應複合年增長率與需求保持一致，並有助於提高我們研發和資本支出投資的投資回報率。鑑於我們決定放慢 1-beta DRAM 的生產速度，我們預計我們的 1-gamma 將在 2025 年推出。同樣，我們的下一個超過 232 層的 NAND 節點將被推遲以適應新的需求前景和所需的供應生長。我們預計這些技術節點節奏的變化將成為全行業的現象。憑藉我們行業領先的技術能力，我們預計將保持非常有利的地位。

Fourth, we are taking significant steps to reduce our costs and operating expenses. We project our spending to decrease through the year driven by reductions in external spending, productivity programs across the business, suspension of 2023 bonus company-wide, select product program reductions and lower discretionary spend. Executive salaries are also being cut for the remainder of fiscal 2023 and over the course of calendar 2023, we are reducing our headcount by approximately 10% through a combination of voluntary attrition and personnel reductions. We expect to exit fiscal 2023 with quarterly OpEx of around $850 million with additional savings and cost in our P&L. Although we have taken these aggressive steps, we are prepared to make further changes and remain flexible to exercise all levers to control our supply and manage our cost structure.

第四，我們正在採取重大措施來降低成本和運營費用。我們預計，由於外部支出減少、整個企業的生產力計劃、全公司暫停 2023 年獎金、部分產品計劃減少和可自由支配支出減少，我們的支出將在全年減少。 2023 財年剩餘時間的高管工資也將被削減，在 2023 日曆年期間，我們將通過自願減員和裁員相結合的方式裁員約 10%。我們預計在 2023 財年結束時，季度運營支出約為 8.5 億美元，並在我們的損益表中節省更多成本。儘管我們採取了這些積極的措施，但我們準備做出進一步的改變，並保持靈活性，以運用所有槓桿來控制我們的供應和管理我們的成本結構。

I will now turn it over to Mark.

我現在將把它交給馬克。

Thanks, Sanjay. Fiscal Q1 revenue and EPS came within our guidance ranges despite worsening market conditions over the course of the quarter. Total fiscal Q1 revenue was approximately $4.1 billion, down 39% sequentially and down 47% year-over-year.

謝謝，桑傑。儘管本季度市場狀況惡化，但第一財季收入和每股收益仍在我們的指導範圍內。第一財季總收入約為 41 億美元，環比下降 39%，同比下降 47%。

Fiscal Q1 DRAM revenue was $2.8 billion, representing 69% of total revenue. DRAM revenue declined 41% sequentially with bit shipments decreasing in the mid-20% range and prices declining in the low 20% range. Fiscal Q1 NAND revenue was $1.1 billion, representing 27% of Micron's total revenue. NAND revenue declined 35% sequentially with bit shipments declining in the mid-teens percent range and prices declining in the low 20 percentage range.

第一財季 DRAM 收入為 28 億美元，佔總收入的 69%。 DRAM 收入環比下降 41%，位元出貨量下降 20% 左右，價格下降 20% 左右。第一財季 NAND 收入為 11 億美元，占美光總收入的 27%。 NAND 收入環比下降 35%，位出貨量下降了 15% 左右，價格下降了 20% 以下。

Now turning to revenue by business unit. Compute and networking business unit revenue was $1.7 billion, with weakness across client, data center, graphics and networking. Embedded business unit revenue was $1 billion, with automotive staying stronger than consumer and industrial markets. Storage business unit revenue was $680 million, while QLC mix increased to a new high. Mobile business unit revenue was $655 million, a low level, partly due to the timing of shipments between fiscal Q1 and fiscal Q2. We expect mobile revenue to grow through the rest of the fiscal year. The consolidated gross margin for fiscal Q1 was 22.9%, down approximately 17 percentage points sequentially, primarily due to lower pricing.

現在轉向按業務部門劃分的收入。計算和網絡業務部門收入為 17 億美元，客戶端、數據中心、圖形和網絡業務表現疲軟。嵌入式業務部門收入為 10 億美元，其中汽車業務保持強於消費和工業市場。存儲業務部門收入為 6.8 億美元，而 QLC 組合增至新高。移動業務部門收入為 6.55 億美元，處於較低水平，部分原因是第一財季和第二財季之間的出貨時間。我們預計移動收入將在本財年剩餘時間內增長。第一財季綜合毛利率為 22.9%，環比下降約 17 個百分點，主要原因是定價下降。

Operating expenses in fiscal Q1 were down roughly $50 million sequentially to under $1 billion. We are taking significant additional actions to reduce our operating expenses through the remainder of this fiscal year. We reported an operating loss of $65 million in fiscal Q1, resulting in an operating margin of negative 2%, down from operating margins of 25% in the prior quarter and 35% in the prior year.

第一財季的運營支出環比下降約 5000 萬美元，降至 10 億美元以下。在本財政年度的剩餘時間裡，我們正在採取重大的額外行動來減少我們的運營費用。我們報告第一財季運營虧損 6500 萬美元，導致運營利潤率為負 2%，低於上一季度的 25% 和去年同期的 35%。

Fiscal Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $1.8 billion, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 45%, down 9 percentage points sequentially. Fiscal Q1 taxes were $1 million as a result of profit before tax being close to breakeven. Non-GAAP loss per share in fiscal Q1 was $0.04, down from earnings per share of $1.45 in fiscal Q4 2022 and $2.16 in the year ago quarter.

第一財季調整後的 EBITDA 為 18 億美元，EBITDA 利潤率為 45%，環比下降 9 個百分點。由於稅前利潤接近盈虧平衡，第一財季的稅收為 100 萬美元。第一財季的非美國通用會計準則每股虧損為 0.04 美元，低於 2022 財年第四季度的每股收益 1.45 美元和去年同期的每股收益 2.16 美元。

Turning to cash flows and capital spending. We generated $943 million in cash from operations in fiscal Q1, representing approximately 23% of revenue. Capital expenditures were $2.5 billion during the quarter, and we see CapEx trending down from these levels through fiscal '23. Free cash flow was negative $1.5 billion in the quarter. Under a 10b5-1 plan in place during the quarter, we completed share repurchases of $425 million or 8.6 million shares at an average price of $49.57. Our ending fiscal Q1 inventory was $8.4 billion, and average DIO for the quarter was 214 days. The rapid decline in bit shipments in fiscal Q4 and fiscal Q1 has driven inventories well above our target levels, and our actions reflect our intent to work these down. We expect our DIO to peak in our fiscal Q2 and then gradually improve.

轉向現金流和資本支出。我們在第一財季的運營中產生了 9.43 億美元的現金，約佔收入的 23%。本季度的資本支出為 25 億美元，我們看到資本支出在整個 23 財年都從這些水平下降。本季度自由現金流為負 15 億美元。根據本季度實施的 10b5-1 計劃，我們以 49.57 美元的平均價格完成了 4.25 億美元或 860 萬股的股票回購。我們結束的第一財季庫存為 84 億美元，本季度的平均 DIO 為 214 天。第四財季和第一財季比特出貨量的快速下降使庫存遠高於我們的目標水平，我們的行動反映了我們降低庫存的意圖。我們預計我們的 DIO 將在第二財季達到頂峰，然後逐漸改善。

We ended the quarter with $12.1 billion of total cash and investments and $14.6 billion of total liquidity. Given macroeconomic uncertainty and the market environment, we bolstered our liquidity in the quarter through $3.4 billion of added debt, bringing our total fiscal Q1 ending debt to $10.3 billion. With this additional debt and net of income on our deposits, we project net interest income of approximately $15 million in the fiscal second quarter. We project and intend to maintain ample liquidity while maintaining leverage consistent with our investment-grade rating.

本季度末，我們的現金和投資總額為 121 億美元，流動資金總額為 146 億美元。鑑於宏觀經濟的不確定性和市場環境，我們通過增加 34 億美元的債務來增強本季度的流動性，使我們的第一財季期末債務總額達到 103 億美元。加上這筆額外的債務和我們存款的淨收入，我們預計第二財季的淨利息收入約為 1500 萬美元。我們預計並打算保持充足的流動性，同時保持與我們的投資級評級一致的槓桿作用。

Now turning to our outlook for the fiscal second quarter. The near-term market environment remains challenging and negatively impacts our profitability outlook. For both DRAM and NAND, we expect bit shipments to be up in fiscal Q2, but revenue to be down. Included in the fiscal second quarter guide is an insurance recovery of approximately $120 million, most of which will be recognized as revenue. This insurance recovery is related to an operational disruption in 2017 and settlement occurred in fiscal Q2. Beyond fiscal Q2, we expect revenue and free cash flow to improve in our fiscal second half as we anticipate a continued recovery in demand.

現在轉向我們對第二財季的展望。近期市場環境仍然充滿挑戰，並對我們的盈利前景產生負面影響。對於 DRAM 和 NAND，我們預計第二財季位出貨量將上升，但收入將下降。第二財季指南中包括約 1.2 億美元的保險回收，其中大部分將確認為收入。這種保險恢復與 2017 年的運營中斷和第二財季發生的結算有關。在第二財季之後，我們預計下半財年的收入和自由現金流將有所改善，因為我們預計需求將持續復甦。

Related to announced wafer start reductions, we forecast approximately $460 million of headwinds to our cost of goods sold in fiscal '23, most of which we expect to incur in the second half. Excluding these underutilization effects, we expect fiscal 2023 cost per bit reduction to be healthy in DRAM but to be challenged in NAND, primarily due to inflation and energy costs unique to Singapore.

與宣布的晶圓啟動削減相關，我們預測我們在 23 財年的銷售商品成本將面臨大約 4.6 億美元的阻力，我們預計其中大部分將在下半年發生。排除這些未充分利用的影響，我們預計 2023 財年 DRAM 的每比特成本下降將是健康的，但 NAND 將面臨挑戰，這主要是由於通貨膨脹和新加坡獨有的能源成本。

As higher cost inventory sell-through, we expect these underutilization impacts to continue into fiscal 2024. In this environment and considering the outlook, we continue to aggressively manage costs. And as Sanjay mentioned, we see OpEx trending down from approximately $1 billion in fiscal Q1 to around $850 million by fiscal Q4.

由於庫存銷售成本較高，我們預計這些未充分利用的影響將持續到 2024 財年。在這種環境下並考慮到前景，我們將繼續積極地管理成本。正如 Sanjay 所提到的，我們看到 OpEx 從第一財季的大約 10 億美元下降到第四財季的大約 8.5 億美元。

Below the operating line, we will have lower net interest income, as previously mentioned. While there is still a fixed level of tax, as we discussed last quarter, due to the geographic mix and level of income, we now see fiscal 2023 taxes coming in at less than $250 million. We are reducing our planned capital expenditures in fiscal 2023 to be in the range of $7 billion to $7.5 billion with the spending weighted towards the first half of the fiscal year.

如前所述，在經營線以下，我們將有較低的淨利息收入。正如我們上個季度所討論的那樣，雖然仍然存在固定的稅收水平，但由於地域組合和收入水平，我們現在看到 2023 財年的稅收不到 2.5 億美元。我們正在將 2023 財年的計劃資本支出減少到 70 億美元至 75 億美元之間，並將支出集中在本財年上半年。

Fiscal 2023 CapEx includes an increased level of construction for long-term capacity planning. WFE CapEx will be down more than 50% year-over-year. We are also significantly reducing CapEx in fiscal 2024 compared to prior plans. Until market conditions and our cash flows improve, we will focus our capital return on dividends and have suspended our share repurchases for now.

2023 財年的資本支出包括提高長期產能規劃的建設水平。 WFE 資本支出將同比下降 50% 以上。與之前的計劃相比，我們還大幅減少了 2024 財年的資本支出。在市場狀況和我們的現金流改善之前，我們將把我們的資本回報集中在股息上，並暫時暫停我們的股票回購。

With all these factors in mind, our non-GAAP guidance for fiscal Q2 is as follows. We expect revenue to be $3.8 billion, plus or minus $200 million. Gross margin to be in the range of 8.5%, plus or minus 250 basis points; and operating expenses to be approximately $945 million, plus or minus $15 million. We expect tax expense of approximately $60 million.

考慮到所有這些因素，我們對第二財季的非 GAAP 指導如下。我們預計收入為 38 億美元，上下浮動 2 億美元。毛利率在8.5%上下浮動250個基點；運營費用約為 9.45 億美元，上下浮動 1500 萬美元。我們預計稅費約為 6000 萬美元。

Based on a share count of approximately 1.09 billion shares, we expect EPS to be a loss of $0.62, plus or minus $0.10. As we work through this period of challenging market conditions, Micron has the benefit of best-in-class technology, a competitive product portfolio, strong operations, a solid balance sheet and most critically, a tenacious team.

基於約 10.9 億股的股票數量，我們預計每股收益將虧損 0.62 美元，上下浮動 0.10 美元。在這段充滿挑戰的市場環境中，美光受益於一流的技術、有競爭力的產品組合、強大的運營、穩健的資產負債表，最重要的是，還有一支頑強的團隊。

Beyond this downturn and over the long term, we are confident that memory and storage revenue growth will outpace the broader semiconductor industry. This is supported by the combination of strong secular trends, memory content growth and better supply-demand balance. Micron is focused on operating and investing in a responsible and disciplined manner to achieve profitable growth and free cash flow generation consistent with our long-term model.

在經濟低迷之後，從長遠來看，我們相信內存和存儲收入的增長將超過更廣泛的半導體行業。這是由強勁的長期趨勢、內存容量增長和更好的供需平衡共同支持的。美光專注於以負責任和有紀律的方式運營和投資，以實現符合我們長期模式的盈利增長和自由現金流產生。

I will now turn it back to Sanjay.

我現在將把它轉回給 Sanjay。

Thank you, Mark. In the last several months, we have seen a dramatic drop in demand. Micron has responded quickly to reduce our CapEx and supply output, and we are taking strong enterprise-wide actions to control our expenses. We have increased liquidity on our balance sheet and adjusted our operational plans. While the environment remains challenging, we currently expect second half fiscal 2023 revenue to improve from the first half. We are confident that the broad advantages enabled by data-centric technologies will create long-term growth for our industry and expect the total available market to reach approximately $300 billion by 2030.

謝謝你，馬克。在過去的幾個月裡，我們看到需求急劇下降。美光迅速做出反應，減少了我們的資本支出和供應量，我們正在全企業範圍內採取強有力的行動來控制我們的開支。我們增加了資產負債表的流動性並調整了我們的運營計劃。儘管環境仍然充滿挑戰，但我們目前預計 2023 財年下半年的收入將比上半年有所改善。我們相信，以數據為中心的技術帶來的廣泛優勢將為我們的行業創造長期增長，並預計到 2030 年可用市場總額將達到約 3000 億美元。

Thank you for joining us today. We will now open for questions.

感謝您今天加入我們。我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question will come from the line of Tim Arcuri with UBS.

我們的第一個問題將來自蒂姆·阿庫裡與瑞銀的合作。

Sanjay, I had a question about the market outlook for DRAM. You have already said that your DRAM production will be down mid- to high singles year-over-year in calendar '23. And then you said -- in your remarks, you said that if the industry production was down, this would accelerate the recovery in profitability. But at this point, I guess, I have 2 questions. One, do you think the industry will be down in terms of production for DRAM. There's some concern about what your big Korean competitor is going to do. So I'm just sort of curious, do you think that they are cutting such that the industry production in DRAM will be down just like yours is down year-over-year.

Sanjay，我有一個關於 DRAM 市場前景的問題。您已經說過，在 23 年的日曆中，您的 DRAM 產量將同比下降到中高位。然後你說 - 在你的言論中，你說如果行業生產下降，這將加速盈利能力的恢復。但在這一點上，我想，我有兩個問題。第一，您認為該行業在 DRAM 的生產方面會下降嗎？有人擔心你的韓國大競爭對手將要做什麼。所以我有點好奇，你認為他們正在削減 DRAM 的行業產量，就像你的產量同比下降一樣。

So Tim, I would like to point out that what we said is that our DRAM supply growth would be slightly negative in fiscal year '23. So not mid- to single high single digits. Supply growth for Micron would be negative. That's because we have taken the actions. We are taking the actions in terms of supply -- wafer output reduction, reducing supply through underutilization in the fab. And as you know, we have also CapEx reduction. We have pushed out our 1-beta DRAM production in the fab so that we can bring our supply closer to demand.

所以蒂姆，我想指出，我們所說的是我們的 DRAM 供應增長在 23 財年將略有負增長。所以不是中高個位數。美光的供應增長將是負的。那是因為我們已經採取了行動。我們正在供應方面採取行動——減少晶圓產量，通過晶圓廠未充分利用來減少供應。如您所知，我們還減少了資本支出。我們已經在晶圓廠推出了我們的 1-beta DRAM 生產，這樣我們就可以使我們的供應更接近需求。

So the industry is oversupplied, and we do believe that actions need to be taken as reflected in Micron's actions with respect to supply reduction. And of course, the rate and pace of the industry supply cuts would affect the recovery of the industry in terms of bringing supply and demand balance closer together. So look, I mean, we cannot specifically comment with respect to the -- our competitors. But what we can tell you is that if the industry supply is -- supply growth in calendar year '23 is negative, and for DRAM and flattish for NAND, it will accelerate the recovery in the industry.

因此，該行業供過於求，我們確實認為需要採取行動，正如美光在減少供應方面的行動所反映的那樣。當然，行業減產的速度和步伐會影響行業的複蘇，使供需平衡更加緊密。所以看，我的意思是，我們不能對我們的競爭對手發表具體評論。但我們可以告訴你的是，如果行業供應是——23 日曆年的供應增長是負的，對於 DRAM 和 NAND 持平，這將加速行業復甦。

And that will come from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore ISI.

這將來自 C.J. Muse 與 Evercore ISI 的系列。

I guess the question is your -- you've -- in the last few years, really taking the leadership role both in DRAM and NAND. And so as you think about hitting the worst downturn in 13 years and taking the appropriate reductions in supply and cost. How can you, at the same time, make sure that you maintain your leadership? What are you doing on that front? Such that when we do go into the next upturn that you are in that lead position, lead role and can really take advantage of technology again.

我想問題是你——你——在過去幾年裡，真正在 DRAM 和 NAND 領域發揮了領導作用。因此，當您考慮應對 13 年來最嚴重的經濟衰退並採取適當的供應和成本削減措施時。同時，您如何確保保持領導地位？你在那方面做什麼？這樣當我們確實進入下一個好轉期時，您處於領先地位，發揮領導作用，並且可以真正再次利用技術。

Thank you, C.J. Of course, Micron is in a strong technology position. We feel very good about our technology capabilities and our road map. Our -- if you look at our 1-alpha DRAM that compared to our prior 1z node gave us a 40% bit efficiency gain per wafer. And now if you look at our 1-beta, industry, you would expect less, but what you see in our 1-beta node is a 35% improvement in terms of bit efficiency per wafer versus our 1-alpha node. And our 1-beta DRAM node is well designed for D5, DDR5 deployment as well with good performance and good power efficiency improvements over prior products.

謝謝你，C.J. 當然，美光科技處於強勢地位。我們對我們的技術能力和路線圖感到非常滿意。我們的——如果你看一下我們的 1-alpha DRAM，與我們之前的 1z 節點相比，它使我們每個晶圓的位效率提高了 40%。現在，如果您查看我們的 1-beta 行業，您的期望會更低，但您在我們的 1-beta 節點中看到的是，與我們的 1-alpha 節點相比，每晶圓的比特效率提高了 35%。我們的 1-beta DRAM 節點專為 D5、DDR5 部署而設計，與之前的產品相比具有良好的性能和良好的能效改進。

So it's really 1-beta is a very good node when you compare it to any other even EUV nodes that are out there in the industry. So it's an industry-leading node. We are well positioned with our 1-beta node. And of course, our 1-gamma node will be well positioned as well. And we are timing the production of these nodes to maximize the ROI in our R&D and manufacturing. And of course, to bring supply and demand in balance overall and keeping in mind the longer-term CAGR for DRAM growth and adjusting our technology cadence accordingly.

因此，當您將它與行業中存在的任何其他 EUV 節點進行比較時，1-beta 確實是一個非常好的節點。所以它是一個行業領先的節點。我們在 1-beta 節點上處於有利地位。當然，我們的 1-gamma 節點也將被很好地定位。我們正在安排這些節點的生產時間，以最大限度地提高我們研發和製造的投資回報率。當然，要使供需總體平衡，並牢記 DRAM 增長的長期復合年增長率，並相應地調整我們的技術節奏。

So I think we are managing our technology node development and manufacturing plans our supply plans in a highly responsible fashion, and we'll be well positioned with our technology. And same thing on NAND side, our 232 NAND is in very good shape. Both 1-beta and 232-layer NAND in terms of cost, in terms of quality and in terms of, of course, yields, we are well positioned with them and continuing to work with customers in qualifying those products.

因此，我認為我們正在以高度負責任的方式管理我們的技術節點開發和製造計劃以及我們的供應計劃，我們將在我們的技術方面處於有利地位。同樣在 NAND 方面，我們的 232 NAND 狀態非常好。 1-beta 和 232 層 NAND 在成本、質量，當然還有良率方面，我們都處於有利地位，並繼續與客戶合作以驗證這些產品。

So not only just 1-beta and 232 layer, we feel good about our technology road map, capabilities and position with our plans for 1-gamma and the node beyond the 232-layer in NAND. And just to point out that Micron, I was recently talking to a leading customer and executive there, and the customer was praising Micron's D5 as being the best in the industry. And same kind of accolades we get from customers on LP5, on GDDR6 on our QLC NAND. And of course, we are broadening our portfolio of products too. So not only with respect to technology, we are well positioned, I think we are well positioned with respect to our product momentum as well.

因此，不僅是 1-beta 和 232 層，我們對我們的技術路線圖、能力和定位以及 1-gamma 計劃和 NAND 232 層以外的節點感到滿意。只是要指出美光，我最近與那裡的一位主要客戶和高管交談，客戶稱讚美光的 D5 是業內最好的。我們在 LP5、GDDR6 和 QLC NAND 上從客戶那裡獲得了同樣的讚譽。當然，我們也在擴大我們的產品組合。因此，不僅在技術方面，我們處於有利地位，我認為我們在產品動力方面也處於有利地位。

Next question will come from the line of Chris Caso with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的 Chris Caso。

Question is on the pace of gross margins as you go through the year. And you spoke about revenue and free cash flow being better in the second half. Do you believe that's the case for gross margins as well? Do you think gross margins are bottoming here? And if you can comment about some of the impact of the unutilization charges and how they flow through the year and beyond Q2?

問題在於您全年的毛利率增長速度。你談到下半年的收入和自由現金流會更好。您認為毛利率也是如此嗎？你認為毛利率在這裡觸底嗎？如果你能評論未使用費用的一些影響以及它們如何在今年和第二季度之後流動？

Chris, this is Mark. I'll take that. A few comments on the profile. We did say that Q1 would be the bottom for bits, and we expect bits to be up in the second quarter and revenue down. So that points to continued challenges around the market conditions. We also expect 2Q to be peak on DIO, but 3Q will be the peak on inventory dollars. So the industry remains in an oversupply situation. But customers are depleting inventories, and we expect them to be in a better position by the second quarter of the calendar year. But profit is going to be challenged through the year, and that will challenge gross margins.

克里斯，這是馬克。我會接受的。關於個人資料的一些評論。我們確實說過，第一季度將是位的底部，我們預計第二季度位將上升，收入將下降。因此，這表明圍繞市場狀況的持續挑戰。我們還預計第二季度將是 DIO 的峰值，但第三季度將是庫存美元的峰值。因此該行業仍然處於供過於求的局面。但客戶正在消耗庫存，我們預計他們將在日曆年第二季度處於更好的位置。但全年利潤將受到挑戰，這將挑戰毛利率。

Now the utilization effects specifically maybe I'll talk just costs generally first. In FY '22, and historically, Micron has strived and achieved cost downs in line or better than the industry. Node advancements, manufacturing, productivity and other factors. But fiscal year '23 is going to be challenging in the near term as these utilization effects and low volumes weigh on the cost per unit and weigh on margins. And there are 3 principal drivers that will help explain that. One is maybe an overlooked factor is just simply the effects of routine period costs that run through the business on a normal basis, scrap, preproduction volumes, pre-qual volumes, freight, royalties, these sort of things. And when you add this sharp decline in volumes and revenue, those period cost effects are going to impact margins. And so we're seeing that.

現在特別是利用效果，也許我會先談談一般成本。在 22 財年，從歷史上看，美光一直努力並實現了與行業一致或更好的成本下降。節點進步、製造、生產力和其他因素。但 23 財年在短期內將充滿挑戰，因為這些利用率影響和低銷量會影響單位成本並影響利潤率。有 3 個主要驅動因素可以幫助解釋這一點。一個可能被忽視的因素只是在正常基礎上貫穿整個業務的常規期間成本的影響，報廢、預生產量、預檢量、運費、特許權使用費，諸如此類的事情。當你加上銷量和收入的急劇下降時，這些期間成本效應將影響利潤率。所以我們看到了。

The second driver is the much lower volumes are creating underload issues in the back end. And of course, that creates higher cost inventories that some is period cost, but most of it still hangs up in inventory and creates higher inventory costs. And that also is a significant factor early in the year, especially weighing on our costs.

第二個驅動因素是低得多的數量在後端造成了負載不足的問題。當然，這會產生更高的庫存成本，其中一些是期間成本，但其中大部分仍然掛在庫存中並產生更高的庫存成本。這也是年初的一個重要因素，尤其是影響我們的成本。

And then third, most visible has been our announcements to lower utilization on the front end. And that is a significant cost -- and we have -- most of those costs are going to be in inventories also versus period cost. And we said that $460 million of -- which is over -- just over half of the total fixed costs that will need to be applied will impact FY '23.

第三，最明顯的是我們宣布降低前端的利用率。這是一筆巨大的成本——我們有——其中大部分成本也將在庫存中，而不是期間成本。我們說過，需要應用的總固定成本的 4.6 億美元——超過了一半——將影響 23 財年。

Now the rest of those costs will flow through in FY '24. Now if our volumes are better than expected, those higher cost inventories will be pulled through earlier. If volumes are less than expected than more of those costs will flow through in FY '24. But right now, we're seeing about $460 million in FY '23.

現在，其餘這些成本將在 24 財年流出。現在，如果我們的銷量好於預期，那些成本較高的庫存將更早完成。如果數量低於預期，那麼更多的成本將在 24 財年流出。但現在，我們看到 23 財年的收入約為 4.6 億美元。

So in summary, we expect cost per bit to be up modestly in Q1. Again, that's mostly just the period cost effects that are normal and then some back-end effects and that's related to just low volumes. That's going to be a bit more cost in the second quarter. Again, and this is more back-end effects as those inventories clear. And then the third quarter, we're going to have the back-end effects of underutilization and the front-end effects as that inventory starts to clear. But then in the third quarter and then especially in the fourth, we have offsets. In fact, we get -- we resume cost down in the fourth quarter, as volumes have been -- as volumes pick up and absorption occurs. It's not a permanent condition. This is just a function of volumes that are -- unseen drops in volumes, and you see -- and actually the steps that we're actively taking to reduce supply.

因此，總而言之，我們預計第一季度的每比特成本將適度上升。同樣，這主要只是正常的期間成本效應，然後是一些後端效應，這與低銷量有關。第二季度的成本會更高一些。同樣，隨著這些庫存的清理，這是更多的後端效應。然後是第三季度，隨著庫存開始清理，我們將產生未充分利用的後端效應和前端效應。但在第三季度，尤其是第四季度，我們有抵消。事實上，我們得到 - 我們在第四季度恢復成本下降，因為數量已經 - 隨著數量的增加和吸收的發生。這不是一個永久的條件。這只是數量的一個函數——你看到的是看不見的數量下降——實際上是我們正在積極採取的減少供應的步驟。

And I think it's worth noting that cost is certainly important. It's a great focus. We're managing the details. But the largest impact to the profitability and financial outlook for us is the supply-demand balance and the rate and pace of this improvement is going to be a function of aligning supply with demand, and we're taking decisive actions on CapEx and utilization to address it.

我認為值得注意的是，成本當然很重要。這是一個很好的重點。我們正在管理細節。但對我們的盈利能力和財務前景影響最大的是供需平衡，這種改善的速度和步伐將取決於供需平衡，我們正在對資本支出和利用率採取果斷行動，以解決它。

That will come from the line of Tom O'Malley with Barclays.

這將來自 Tom O'Malley 與 Barclays 的合作。

My question is really on the demand side. I think that you did a good job of calling out what you saw from an end market perspective into next year. But I just wanted to ask specifically on the data center. You've called out inventory in the past, but versus where you guys talked about the data center last quarter, do you think that inventory at customers was worse than you initially thought? Or do you think that you're seeing a weakening in terms of data center end demand.

我的問題確實是在需求方面。我認為你從終端市場的角度把你所看到的帶到明年，做得很好。但我只是想專門問一下數據中心。您過去曾調出庫存，但與上個季度你們談論數據中心的地方相比，您認為客戶的庫存比您最初想像的更糟嗎？或者您認為數據中心終端需求正在減弱。

So inventories with data center customers, including cloud was -- is higher than what we thought. So that inventory adjustment has begun, and it has some wood to chop in that area. And of course, the end demand for cloud operations that are driven by consumer-related activities given the overall consumer environment and the macro trends, some portions of cloud and demand may be weaker as a result of that as well. And also in the macro environment that exists today, there is -- given the higher interest rates and other macro trends, companies do become somewhat cautious in terms of managing their overall expenses and any long-term agreements, et cetera. So that can impact some of the current environment for end demand in cloud.

因此，包括雲在內的數據中心客戶的庫存比我們想像的要高。因此，庫存調整已經開始，並且在該領域有一些木材需要砍伐。當然，考慮到整體消費者環境和宏觀趨勢，由消費者相關活動驅動的雲運營的最終需求，雲和需求的某些部分也可能因此而減弱。而且在當今存在的宏觀環境中，鑑於更高的利率和其他宏觀趨勢，公司在管理總體支出和任何長期協議等方面確實變得有些謹慎。因此，這可能會影響雲中終端需求的一些當前環境。

But what I would like to point out is that digitization trends ultimately do remain positive. Cloud definitely helps drive that efficiency that businesses seek in an environment like this. We do absolutely expect that once we get past the current macroeconomic environment and macroeconomic weakening, longer-term trends for cloud will remain strong. In terms of the current environment, yes, inventory adjustments and some impact of cloud and demand weakening as well, that's impacting our overall data center outlook.

但我想指出的是，數字化趨勢最終仍然是積極的。云無疑有助於提高企業在這樣的環境中尋求的效率。我們絕對希望，一旦我們度過當前的宏觀經濟環境和宏觀經濟疲軟，雲的長期趨勢將保持強勁。就當前環境而言，是的，庫存調整以及雲和需求減弱的一些影響，這也在影響我們的整體數據中心前景。

That will come from the line of Krish Sankar with Cowen.

這將來自 Krish Sankar 和 Cowen 的血統。

I just have a quick question for Mark. Mark, you said inventory base to peak in the second quarter and inventory dollars in F3Q. What kind of inventory there should we expect in F2Q? And what is the risk of inventory write-down? Kind of wondering what is your inventory write-down methodology.

我只是有一個簡短的問題要問馬克。馬克，你說庫存基數在第二季度達到頂峰，庫存美元在 F3Q 達到頂峰。 F2Q我們應該期待什麼樣的庫存？庫存減記的風險是什麼？有點想知道您的庫存減記方法是什麼。

Sure. I think I got the question. So the -- as mentioned, the DIO peak, we expect to be in 2Q, the dollars in 3Q. And from both those peaks, we expect it to gradually improve, which is consistent with profiles that we've said before, though the conditions have worsened and volumes are a bit lower. Yes, we do expect customers to be in better shape by the second quarter of calendar year, and that's encouraging. And then you've seen the steps we've taken on supply to get inventories down.

當然。我想我得到了問題。所以 - 如前所述，DIO 峰值，我們預計在第二季度，第三季度的美元。從這兩個峰值來看，我們預計它會逐漸改善，這與我們之前所說的情況一致，儘管情況已經惡化並且交易量有所下降。是的，我們確實希望到日曆年第二季度客戶的狀況會更好，這令人鼓舞。然後你看到了我們為降低庫存而採取的供應措施。

But I did cover this recently at a conference, bears repeating. Inventory is -- it's obviously a risk where we carefully and thoroughly monitor and with the lower utilization we have and the higher costs associated with that per unit. And then the weak market conditions we have, the margin of safety we have has decreased from where it was. We did a thorough quarter-end analysis as we always do. And of course, that includes the outlook. And in that, we determined that there are no write-downs to the lower of cost or net realizable value warranted. We perform extensive reviews of project -- projected pricing. We analyze customer trends, and there are a number of other factors.

但我最近在一次會議上確實談到了這一點，值得重複。庫存是 - 這顯然是我們仔細和徹底監控的風險，我們的利用率較低，與每單位相關的成本較高。然後我們所擁有的疲軟市場條件，我們所擁有的安全邊際已經從原來的地方減少了。我們一如既往地進行了全面的季度末分析。當然，這包括前景。因此，我們確定沒有減記成本或可變現淨值中較低者的保證。我們對項目進行廣泛的審查——預計定價。我們分析客戶趨勢，還有許多其他因素。

If our estimates did change, further, there could be risk of write-off in future quarters but none this in the November quarter. I do refer you to our inventory policy that's disclosed in our 10-K. We have a long-standing policy of evaluating inventory as a single pool, and we evaluate this policy regularly, and we apply consistently.

如果我們的估計確實發生變化，那麼未來幾個季度可能會有沖銷的風險，但在 11 月的那個季度不會出現這種情況。我確實建議您參考我們在 10-K 中披露的庫存政策。我們有一個長期的政策，將庫存作為一個單一的池進行評估，我們會定期評估這一政策，並始終如一地應用。

That will come from the line of Mehdi Hosseini with Susquehanna.

這將來自 Mehdi Hosseini 與 Susquehanna 的血系。

Yes. Sanjay, I want to go back to your the color you provided on the demand trend by end customer or by end application. You've highlighted that the PC unit are expected to be down 5% to 10%. If I just take the current build rate in December and apply a seasonal decline in Q1, it suggests to me that PCs as the end market application would bottom by March, April time frame, let's say, post-Chinese New Year. Could that be a -- could that actually catalyze a more improved visibility with pricing for DRAM and NAND. And I asked you because it was the PC end market that rolled over. And I'm just trying to better understand whether PC end market could help stabilize certain part of the DRAM and NAND segments?

是的。 Sanjay，我想回到你根據最終客戶或最終應用的需求趨勢提供的顏色。您已經強調 PC 部門預計將下降 5% 至 10%。如果我只採用 12 月的當前構建率並在第一季度應用季節性下降，這表明 PC 作為終端市場應用程序將在 3 月、4 月的時間框架內觸底，比方說，農曆新年後。這可能是 - 這是否真的可以通過 DRAM 和 NAND 的定價來促進更高的知名度。而且我問你是因為翻車的是PC端市場。而我只是想更好地了解PC端市場是否有助於穩定DRAM和NAND部分的某些部分？

Well, of course, the markets where DRAM and NAND are well diversified. PC is one of the markets. And we already talked about the decline in PC units. Actually, in calendar year '22, high teens decline in PC units. This is the sharpest decline in the history of the PCs. And smartphones, another area where unit sales of smartphones globally down 10% as well. And that, too, historically, in terms of a decline is high. So these are, of course, impacting the end consumer demand -- and then inventory adjustments on top of it impacting the demand.

嗯，當然，DRAM 和 NAND 的市場非常多樣化。 PC是市場之一。我們已經談到了個人電腦銷量的下降。實際上，在 22 年日曆年，PC 單位的高青少年下降。這是 PC 歷史上最大的跌幅。智能手機是全球智能手機銷量下降 10% 的另一個領域。而且，從歷史上看，下降幅度也很高。因此，這些當然會影響最終消費者的需求——然後庫存調整會影響需求。

And of course, as I spoke about earlier, that inventory adjustments are happening in other parts of the market as well. I think with respect to our outlook for next year in terms of demand, we expect about 10% demand growth for DRAM in calendar year '23. And when you look at mid-single digits, low to mid-single-digit demand growth in '22 and approximately 10% in '23 that over a 2-year time period is really significantly lower growth rate compared to the years in the past, the CAGRs that have been prevalent over time.

當然，正如我之前所說，庫存調整也在市場的其他部分發生。我認為就我們明年的需求前景而言，我們預計 23 年 DRAM 的需求將增長約 10%。當你看中個位數時，22 年的中低個位數需求增長和 23 年的大約 10%，在 2 年的時間段內，與過去幾年相比，增長率確實顯著降低，隨著時間的推移普遍存在的複合年增長率。

So I think what's important here is that the supply has to be reduced. The biggest factor here really would be the supply reduction. Of course, once inventory adjustments -- we are able to get past and the macroeconomic environment improves. The long-term trends for demand, driven by all the factors we have spoken about before, AI, 5G, industrial IoT, autonomous, all of those long-term factors will drive that demand along the lines of the CAGR that we have discussed today. But in the near term, the biggest factor to really address the demand supply is a reduction in supply in the industry. And of course, the rate and pace of the financial performance improvement will very much depend on how fast supply comes into balance.

所以我認為這裡重要的是必須減少供應。這裡最大的因素實際上是供應減少。當然，一旦庫存調整——我們就能過去，宏觀經濟環境就會好轉。在我們之前談到的所有因素的推動下，需求的長期趨勢，人工智能、5G、工業物聯網、自主，所有這些長期因素都將按照我們今天討論的複合年增長率推動需求.但在短期內，真正解決需求供應的最大因素是行業供應減少。當然，財務業績改善的速度和步伐在很大程度上取決於供應達到平衡的速度。

And as we have discussed, we have taken our actions in terms of CapEx reduction, in terms of underutilization, in terms of adjusting the technology node cadence. And we do believe that with the supply actions, the industry environment will improve. I do see that in fiscal year '24, the revenue, the profit and the free cash flow profile would be much better than '23. And of course, again, will be a function of how quickly the supply adjust to demand.

正如我們所討論的，我們已經在減少資本支出、未充分利用、調整技術節點節奏方面採取了行動。我們確實相信，隨著供應行動，行業環境將會改善。我確實看到，在 24 財年，收入、利潤和自由現金流狀況會比 23 財年好得多。當然，這又取決於供應適應需求的速度。

That will come from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

這將來自 Toshiya Hari 與 Goldman Sachs 的關係。

I had one quick clarification and then a question. Clarification for Mark. You talked about the $460 million of headwind related to the underutilization of your fabs. When you throw out that estimate, what assumptions are you making for utilization rates for the next couple of quarters? You obviously talked about the 20% cut as of today. But are you assuming you stay at that 20% rate for Feb, May and perhaps August? Or are you assuming production rates or utilization rates kind of step up as you progress through the remainder of the fiscal year.

我有一個快速的澄清，然後是一個問題。馬克的澄清。您談到了與晶圓廠未充分利用相關的 4.6 億美元逆風。當您放棄該估計時，您對接下來幾個季度的利用率做出了哪些假設？您顯然談到了截至今天的 20% 削減。但是你是否假設你在 2 月、5 月甚至 8 月保持 20% 的利率？或者您是否假設生產率或利用率會隨著本財政年度剩餘時間的推進而有所提高。

And then the question is on the demand side. Sanjay, in your prepared remarks, you talked about customer inventory normalization and new server CPU platforms in China reopening as some of the key drivers for bit growth over the next couple of months or few months. How much visibility do you have into those 3 dynamics? You talked a little bit about inventory, but we're hearing customer inventory in some cases, might be increasing given some of the deals, not just you specifically, but the industry is striking, the server platforms could be a little bit more skewed to the second half of calendar '23 and China reopening still seems pretty gray. So curious what kind of visibility you have there.

然後是需求方面的問題。 Sanjay，在你準備好的發言中，你談到了客戶庫存正常化和中國新服務器 CPU 平台的重新開放，這是未來幾個月或幾個月位增長的一些關鍵驅動因素。您對這 3 個動態的了解程度如何？您談到了一些庫存，但我們聽說在某些情況下客戶庫存可能會增加一些交易，不僅僅是您，但行業是驚人的，服務器平台可能會更偏向於23 年下半年和中國重新開放似乎仍然灰暗。很好奇你在那裡有什麼樣的能見度。

Yes, Toshi, I'll just briefly touch on the first one. We're expecting these elevated underutilization levels through most of -- well, through fiscal year '23. And beyond that, we're just going to always be evaluating the market conditions and then we'll update you and the market accordingly.

是的，Toshi，我將簡要介紹第一個問題。我們預計這些提高的未充分利用水平將持續到大部分時間——好吧，直到 23 財年。除此之外，我們將始終評估市場狀況，然後我們會相應地更新您和市場。

And on your questions regarding customer inventory. What I would like to point out is that customer inventory in aggregate -- and that means in terms of volume in bits, we believe it has come down, although still at high levels. And you can see that in Q2, we are guiding to increase bit shipments. And just keep in mind that where demand used to be in terms of or the industry shipments used to be a few quarters ago versus now, they have come down substantially.

以及關於客戶庫存的問題。我想指出的是，客戶庫存總量——這意味著就比特數量而言，我們認為它已經下降，儘管仍處於高位。你可以看到，在第二季度，我們正在指導增加比特出貨量。請記住，過去幾個季度前的需求或行業出貨量與現在相比，它們已經大幅下降。

And even though there may be some end market weakening in demand, that points to that some of the inventory is being consumed by the customers. Basically, some of the inventory that the customers are holding is being consumed by them to address their end demand. So basically, the ship out by customers is greater than the ship in, in terms of purchases by customers from suppliers. And this trend of inventory improvement, gradual inventory improvement will -- we believe, will continue. And by mid calendar '23, we are projecting -- even though we don't have perfect visibility, but based on all of our discussions with our customers, we are projecting that inventory at customers will be in relatively healthier position by that time. And that's where we say that our second half of fiscal year revenue will be greater than first half, and we would expect continued improvements beyond the second half as well.

儘管終端市場的需求可能有所減弱，但這表明部分庫存正在被客戶消耗掉。基本上，客戶持有的一些庫存正在被他們消耗，以滿足他們的最終需求。所以基本上，就客戶從供應商處的採購而言，客戶出貨量大於進貨量。而這種庫存改善的趨勢，庫存的逐步改善將——我們相信，將會持續下去。到 23 年中期，我們預計——儘管我們沒有完美的可見性，但根據我們與客戶的所有討論，我們預計到那時客戶的庫存將處於相對健康的狀態。這就是我們說我們下半財年的收入將超過上半年的地方，我們預計下半年以後也會繼續改善。

And regarding the question on China, of course, China reopening has to be monitored closely, and it may be choppy. In terms of the near term, we are assuming that China's reopening for the second half of the calendar year will result in benefit in terms of increased demand coming from the China markets.

當然，關於中國的問題，必須密切關注中國的重新開放，而且可能會起伏不定。就近期而言，我們假設中國在日曆年下半年重新開放將帶來中國市場需求增加的好處。

And of course, China reopening is not just issue to be monitored in terms of Chinese customer demand, but also any impact on global electronics system supply chains. And of course, we have assembly and test operations in China as well, and we are continuing to monitor those as well with respect to some of the recent COVID cases there. So I think China, COVID cases and reopening will have to be -- continue to be closely monitored.

當然，中國重新開放不僅僅是中國客戶需求方面需要監測的問題，還有對全球電子系統供應鏈的任何影響。當然，我們在中國也有組裝和測試業務，我們也將繼續監控這些業務以及最近那裡出現的一些 COVID 案例。因此，我認為中國、COVID 病例和重新開放必須——繼續受到密切監測。

And Sanjay, Sapphire Rapids and Genoa, the new server CPU platforms, visibility there in terms of the ramp.

而 Sanjay、Sapphire Rapids 和 Genoa，新的服務器 CPU 平台，在斜坡方面的可見性。

So our products are well positioned, and we expect that these will be ramping during the course of '23 and, of course, continue to ramp in '24 as well. And these are the ones that will drive a greater D5 attach with the servers. And as we said, we expect that for servers, D5 in 30s percentage range in terms of deployment by end of calendar '23 and somewhere around 50% by mid-calendar. So our products are well positioned, and we are looking forward to deployment of those new CPU platforms and that will drive healthier dynamic with respect to D5 deployment.

因此，我們的產品定位良好，我們預計這些產品將在 23 年期間不斷增加，當然，在 24 年也會繼續增加。而這些將推動與服務器的 D5 連接更加緊密。正如我們所說，我們預計對於服務器，D5 在 23 年日曆結束時的部署百分比範圍為 30%，到日曆中期約為 50%。因此，我們的產品定位良好，我們期待著部署這些新的 CPU 平台，這將推動 D5 部署方面更健康的動態。

These new processors, they work with more cores. They increase the attach rate for memory because they are bandwidth hungry and that just points to greater adoption of DRAM, particularly D5 memory with those processors. So of course, it has been pushed out. I mean compared to the plans last year or over the last few months, some of those new processor deployments have been pushed out, but we look forward to them getting broadly adopted as the year progresses in '23.

這些新處理器，它們與更多內核一起工作。它們提高了內存的附加率，因為它們非常需要帶寬，這恰恰表明 DRAM 的採用率更高，尤其是那些處理器的 D5 內存。所以當然，它被推出了。我的意思是，與去年或過去幾個月的計劃相比，其中一些新的處理器部署已經推出，但我們期待隨著 23 年的進展，它們將得到廣泛採用。

And we do have time for one final question. And that will come from the line of Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.

我們確實有時間回答最後一個問題。這將來自富國銀行的 Aaron Rakers 系列。

I'll make just a quick question. I'm just curious, as you guys kind of thought about the guidance for this current quarter and given the pace of change that we saw in the pricing environment through the course of this last quarter, I guess when you roll up your assumptions for DRAM and NAND, is it as simple to think that you guys are assuming kind of a similar pricing environment or pace of pricing decline this quarter as we saw last quarter? Or are you kind of factoring in any kind of acceleration of price degradation?

我會做一個簡單的問題。我只是好奇，當你們考慮本季度的指導時，考慮到我們在上個季度的定價環境中看到的變化速度，我想當你們提出對 DRAM 的假設時和 NAND，是否可以簡單地認為你們假設本季度的定價環境或定價下降速度與我們上個季度相似？或者你是否考慮了任何一種價格下降的加速？

So look, we don't comment specifically on pricing, but I can certainly tell you that both DRAM and NAND are experiencing challenging environment. And again, it is about oversupply in the market and decisive actions that we have highlighted today are the kind of actions that are important to make progress towards bringing supply and demand into balance.

所以看，我們不會具體評論定價，但我可以肯定地告訴你，DRAM 和 NAND 都在經歷充滿挑戰的環境。同樣，這是關於市場供過於求的問題，而我們今天強調的果斷行動是在實現供需平衡方面取得進展的重要行動。

Thank you. Thank you all for participating. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。謝謝大家的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。