美光科技 (MU) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Micron's Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2022 Financial Results Conference Call.

感謝您的支持，歡迎參加美光 2022 財年第四季度財務業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, today's program may be recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Farhan Ahmad, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

提醒一下，今天的節目可能會被錄製。現在我想介紹一下今天節目的主持人，投資者關係副總裁 Farhan Ahmad。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, and welcome to Micron Technology's Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2022 Financial Conference Call. On the call with me today are Sanjay Mehrotra, our President and CEO; and Mark Murphy, our CFO. Today's call is being webcast from our Investor Relations site at investors.micron.com, including audio and slides.

謝謝，歡迎參加美光科技 2022 財年第四季度財務電話會議。今天與我通話的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Sanjay Mehrotra；和我們的首席財務官 Mark Murphy。今天的電話會議正在我們的投資者關係網站investors.micron.com 上進行網絡直播，包括音頻和幻燈片。

In addition, the press release detailing our quarterly results has been posted on the website, along with the prepared remarks for this call. Today's discussion of financial results is presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. A reconciliation of the GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures may be found on our website. We encourage you to visit our website at micron.com throughout the quarter for the most current information on the company, including information on the financial conferences that we may be attending. You can also follow us on Twitter at MicronTech.

此外，詳細介紹我們季度業績的新聞稿以及為本次電話會議準備的評論已發佈在網站上。除非另有說明，今天對財務結果的討論是在非公認會計原則財務基礎上提出的。可以在我們的網站上找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的對賬。我們鼓勵您在整個季度訪問我們的網站 micron.com，以獲取有關公司的最新信息，包括我們可能參加的財務會議的信息。您也可以在 MicronTech 的 Twitter 上關注我們。

As a reminder, the matters we are discussing today include forward-looking statements regarding market demand and supply, our expected results and other matters. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made today.

提醒一下，我們今天討論的事項包括有關市場供需、我們的預期結果和其他事項的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與今天的陳述存在重大差異。

We refer you to the documents we filed with the SEC, including our most recent Form 10-K and 10-Q, for a discussion of the risks that may affect our future results. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, performance or achievements. We are under no duty to update any of the forward-looking statements to conform these statements to actual results.

我們向您推薦我們向 SEC 提交的文件，包括我們最近的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格，以討論可能影響我們未來結果的風險。儘管我們認為前瞻性陳述中反映的預期是合理的，但我們不能保證未來的結果、活動水平、業績或成就。我們沒有義務更新任何前瞻性陳述以使這些陳述符合實際結果。

I'll now turn the call over to Sanjay.

我現在將把電話轉給 Sanjay。

Thank you, Farhan. Good afternoon, everyone. Micron delivered record annual revenue in fiscal 2022 with solid profitability and free cash flow despite a challenging environment in the latter part of the year. In 2022, we ramped our industry-leading 1-alpha DRAM and 176 layers NAND nodes across our portfolio and returned a record amount of cash to shareholders. We strengthened our product portfolio significantly during the year as evidenced by record revenue in mobile, auto, industrial and networking end markets. Our share gains in client and data center SSDs contributed to record revenue in SSDs and also in our consolidated NAND business.

謝謝你，法爾漢。大家下午好。儘管下半年環境充滿挑戰，但美光在 2022 財年實現了創紀錄的年收入，盈利能力和自由現金流穩健。 2022 年，我們在我們的產品組合中增加了行業領先的 1-alpha DRAM 和 176 層 NAND 節點，並向股東返還了創紀錄的現金數額。移動、汽車、工業和網絡終端市場創紀錄的收入證明，我們在這一年顯著加強了我們的產品組合。我們在客戶端和數據中心 SSD 的份額增長為 SSD 以及我們合併的 NAND 業務帶來創紀錄的收入。

We also ramped new product categories like high-bandwidth HBM2E memory and GDDR6X. In addition, a record number of customers recognized Micron as the industry leader in product quality. Our fiscal Q4 financial results were impacted by rapidly weakening consumer demand and significant customer inventory adjustments across all end markets. We are responding decisively to this weak environment by the decreasing supply growth through significant cuts to fiscal 2023 CapEx and by reducing utilization in our fabs. We are confident that the memory industry supply-demand balance will be restored as a result of reduced industry supply growth combined with the long-term demand growth drivers for memory.

我們還增加了新產品類別，例如高帶寬 HBM2E 內存和 GDDR6X。此外，創紀錄數量的客戶將美光視為產品質量的行業領導者。我們的第四財季財務業績受到消費者需求迅速減弱和所有終端市場客戶庫存大幅調整的影響。我們通過大幅削減 2023 財年的資本支出和降低晶圓廠的利用率來減少供應增長，從而果斷地應對這種疲軟的環境。我們相信，由於行業供應增長放緩，加上內存的長期需求增長動力，內存行業的供需平衡將得到恢復。

Micron's technology and manufacturing leadership, deep customer relationships, diverse product portfolio and strong balance sheet put us in a solid footing to navigate this industry down cycle and position the company for strong long-term growth. Our industry-leading 1-alpha DRAM and 176-layer NAND nodes drove strong cost reductions in fiscal 2022. In fiscal Q4, we led the industry again in introducing our 232-layer NAND, becoming the first company to enter volume production on a node with more than 200 layers. We also remain on track to begin the ramp of our 1-beta DRAM node in manufacturing by the end of calendar 2022. Both the 1-beta DRAM node and 232-layer NAND node will provide us with robust cost reduction when they ramp in high volume.

美光在技術和製造方面的領先地位、深厚的客戶關係、多樣化的產品組合和強大的資產負債表使我們能夠在這個行業的下行週期中打下堅實的基礎，並使公司實現強勁的長期增長。我們行業領先的 1-alpha DRAM 和 176 層 NAND 節點在 2022 財年推動了成本的大幅降低。在第四財季，我們再次引領行業推出我們的 232 層 NAND，成為第一家在節點上進入量產的公司超過200層。我們還有望在 2022 年年底前開始生產我們的 1-beta DRAM 節點。1-beta DRAM 節點和 232 層 NAND 節點將在高產量時為我們提供強大的成本降低體積。

Artificial intelligence, cloud computing, electric vehicles and the ubiquitous connectivity offered by 5G and our strong long-term demand drivers for memory and storage. As we have discussed previously, to support memory demand in the second half of the decade and beyond, we will need to add new DRAM wafer capacity. The recently passed CHIPS and Science Act will help to reduce the memory manufacturing cost disparities that exist between the U.S. and Asia. Following passage of the CHIPS Act, Micron announced our intent to invest $40 billion through the end of the decade in leading-edge memory manufacturing in the U.S., contingent on CHIPS Act support. These investments will ultimately create tens of thousands of American jobs, strengthen U.S. supply chain resiliency and further diversify our global fab footprint.

人工智能、雲計算、電動汽車和 5G 提供的無處不在的連接以及我們對內存和存儲的強大長期需求驅動力。正如我們之前所討論的，為了支持本世紀下半葉及以後的內存需求，我們將需要增加新的 DRAM 晶圓產能。最近通過的 CHIPS 和科學法案將有助於減少美國和亞洲之間存在的內存製造成本差異。在 CHIPS 法案通過後，美光宣布我們打算在本世紀末投資 400 億美元用於美國領先的內存製造，這取決於 CHIPS 法案的支持。這些投資最終將創造數以萬計的美國就業機會，加強美國供應鏈的彈性，並進一步使我們的全球晶圓廠足跡多樣化。

Earlier this month, we announced that we have chosen Boise as 1 of 2 leading-edge DRAM manufacturing fab sites that we are planning in the U.S. and we expect to invest approximately $15 billion at this site through the end of the decade. The co-location of this new manufacturing facility with our existing R&D site at our headquarters in Boise, provides multiple strategic benefits, including improving efficiency across both R&D and manufacturing, simplifying technology transfer and reducing time to market for leading-edge products.

本月早些時候，我們宣布我們已選擇博伊西作為我們計劃在美國規劃的 2 個領先的 DRAM 製造工廠之一，我們預計到本世紀末將在該工廠投資約 150 億美元。這個新的製造工廠與我們位於博伊西總部的現有研發基地共址，提供了多種戰略優勢，包括提高研發和製造的效率、簡化技術轉讓和縮短領先產品的上市時間。

We will soon announce a second high-volume U.S. DRAM manufacturing site. These new fabs will fulfill our requirements for additional wafer capacity starting in the second half of the decade and beyond. We plan to build these sites in stages. Tool installation and production output will be ramped in line with industry demand growth, which is consistent with our goal to maintain stable bit supply share as well as supply discipline.

我們將很快宣布第二個大批量美國 DRAM 生產基地。這些新晶圓廠將滿足我們從本世紀下半葉及以後開始增加晶圓產能的要求。我們計劃分階段建設這些網站。工具安裝和產量將隨著行業需求增長而增加，這與我們保持穩定的鑽頭供應份額和供應紀律的目標一致。

Now turning to our end markets. Micron's product portfolio has become significantly stronger and contributed to our momentum in the most attractive markets. In fiscal 2022, data center and graphics revenue grew approximately 35%, and auto, industrial and networking revenue grew approximately 40%. The combined revenue mix of these important markets grew from approximately 45% of our total revenue in fiscal 2021 to 52% in fiscal 2022, putting us on track to hit our target of 62% by fiscal 2025, as outlined at our Investor Day earlier this year.

現在轉向我們的終端市場。美光的產品組合變得更加強大，並為我們在最具吸引力的市場中的發展勢頭做出了貢獻。 2022財年，數據中心和圖形收入增長約35%，汽車、工業和網絡收入增長約40%。這些重要市場的總收入組合從 2021 財年占我們總收入的約 45% 增長到 2022 財年的 52%，使我們有望在 2025 財年實現 62% 的目標，正如我們早些時候在投資者日所概述的那樣年。

This portfolio transformation will increase our exposure to the most attractive and stable profit pools in the industry. In fiscal Q4, data center revenue was down both sequentially and year-over-year, driven primarily by declines in ASP. In fiscal 2022, we set a new revenue record for our cloud revenues, which grew more than 30% year-over-year. Cloud end demand remains healthy, driven by secular growth in AI and the digital economy. However, the data center market, including both cloud and enterprise, continues to face some supply constraints that are limiting server bills. And customers are reducing memory and storage inventory due to macroeconomic uncertainties.

這種投資組合轉型將增加我們在業內最具吸引力和最穩定的利潤池中的敞口。在第四財季，數據中心收入環比和同比均下降，主要受 ASP 下降的推動。在 2022 財年，我們的雲收入創下了新的收入記錄，同比增長超過 30%。在人工智能和數字經濟的長期增長的推動下，雲終端需求保持健康。然而，包括雲和企業在內的數據中心市場繼續面臨一些限制服務器賬單的供應限制。由於宏觀經濟的不確定性，客戶正在減少內存和存儲庫存。

With a diverse set of products across DDR4, DDR5, graphics memory, high-bandwidth memory and data center SSDs, Micron offers a wide portfolio of solutions targeting this market with industry-leading quality. Building on our recent momentum of market share gains in data center SSDs in the first half of calendar 2022, we continue to make solid progress in ongoing qualifications of our 176-layer NVMe data center SSDs at hyperscalers and OEMs around the world.

憑藉 DDR4、DDR5、圖形內存、高帶寬內存和數據中心 SSD 等多種產品，美光以行業領先的質量為目標市場提供了廣泛的解決方案組合。基於我們最近在 2022 年上半年數據中心 SSD 市場份額增長的勢頭，我們繼續在全球超大規模製造商和 OEM 的 176 層 NVMe 數據中心 SSD 的持續認證方面取得穩步進展。

Fiscal Q4 client revenue was down both sequentially and year-over-year as PC unit end demand declined and customers reduced inventory. We now forecast calendar 2022 PC unit sales to decline by an approximately mid-teens percentage year-over-year. In fiscal Q4, we began ramping 16 gigabit DDR5 in high-volume production ahead of anticipated client platform launches. We also commenced volume production of Gen 4 QLC NVMe client SSDs, and are the only company with a full portfolio of 176-layer TLC and Gen 4 QLC NVMe SSDs qualified and shipping to PC OEMs. In fiscal Q4, graphics revenue declined both sequentially and year-over-year. Micron continues to hold an excellent position as the performance leader in the graphics market. In fiscal Q4, we began shipping the industry's fastest graphics memory with 24 gigabits per second GDDR6X shipping in high-volume production. We are excited to see our proprietary GDDR6X memory featured in the recent launch of NVIDIA's GeForce RTX 4090 and 4080 GPUs.

由於 PC 終端需求下降和客戶減少庫存，第四財季客戶收入環比和同比均下降。我們現在預測 2022 日曆年 PC 單位銷量將同比下降約 10%。在第四財季，我們在預期的客戶端平台發布之前開始大批量生產 16 Gb DDR5。我們還開始批量生產第 4 代 QLC NVMe 客戶端 SSD，並且是唯一一家擁有完整產品組合的 176 層 TLC 和第 4 代 QLC NVMe SSD 合格並交付給 PC OEM 的公司。在第四財季，圖形收入環比和同比均下降。美光作為圖形市場的性能領導者，繼續保持著卓越的地位。在第四財季，我們開始以 24 Gb/秒的 GDDR6X 大批量生產交付業界最快的圖形內存。我們很高興看到我們專有的 GDDR6X 內存在最近推出的 NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4090 和 4080 GPU 中得到體現。

Fiscal Q4 mobile revenue declined both sequentially and year-over-year. Despite the weakness in end unit sales, we achieved 2 consecutive years of record mobile revenue in fiscal 2021 and 2022. We now project calendar 2022 smartphone unit volume to decline by a high single-digit percentage year-over-year. 5G continues to drive digital content per device and we project 5G penetration to exceed 50% of the smartphone unit TAM in calendar 2022. We continue to execute well on our mobile product road map. In fiscal Q4, 1-alpha comprised over 70% of our LPDRAM mobile bit shipment and 176-layer made up approximately 95% of our mobile NAND bit shipments.

第四財季移動收入環比和同比均下降。儘管終端銷量疲軟，但我們在 2021 財年和 2022 財年連續兩年實現了創紀錄的移動收入。我們現在預計 2022 年日曆智能手機銷量將同比下降個位數百分比。 5G 繼續推動每台設備的數字內容，我們預計到 2022 年，5G 滲透率將超過智能手機單元 TAM 的 50%。我們繼續在移動產品路線圖上執行良好。在第四財季，1-alpha 占我們 LPDRAM 移動位出貨量的 70% 以上，176 層占我們移動 NAND 位出貨量的約 95%。

Micron is exceptionally well-positioned as the leader in automotive and industrial markets, which are attractive because of strong long-term growth and relatively stable margins. In fiscal Q4, our automotive business delivered another record revenue quarter, and fiscal 2022 auto revenues grew 30% year over year, setting a new all-time high. In fiscal Q1, we see some slowdown in our automotive demand as our customers rebalance DRAM and NAND inventory levels as they deal with nonmemory semiconductor shortages and production challenges. However, we see continued strong growth in our second half of fiscal 2023 with volume ramp of advanced next-generation in-vehicle infotainment systems as well as the broader adoption of more advanced driver-assistance systems. We are extremely excited by the long-term prospects for memory and storage in the automotive market and expect long-term CAGR for DRAM and NAND in autos to be at about twice the rate of the overall DRAM and NAND markets.

美光作為汽車和工業市場的領導者處於非常有利的地位，由於強勁的長期增長和相對穩定的利潤率，這些市場具有吸引力。在第四財季，我們的汽車業務實現了另一個創紀錄的季度收入，2022 財年汽車收入同比增長 30%，創下歷史新高。在第一財季，我們看到我們的汽車需求有所放緩，因為我們的客戶在應對非內存半導體短缺和生產挑戰時重新平衡 DRAM 和 NAND 庫存水平。然而，隨著先進的下一代車載信息娛樂系統的銷量增加以及更先進的駕駛輔助系統的廣泛採用，我們看到 2023 財年下半年將繼續強勁增長。我們對汽車市場內存和存儲的長期前景感到非常興奮，並預計汽車中 DRAM 和 NAND 的長期復合年增長率將是整個 DRAM 和 NAND 市場的兩倍左右。

While long-term fundamentals remain strong, our industrial IoT business saw sequential and year-over-year revenue declines in fiscal Q4. Softening macroeconomic conditions have led some customers to reduce overall purchases of DRAM and NAND. Nevertheless, our long-term outlook remains strong for our industrial business driven by the proliferation of factory automation and digitization.

雖然長期基本面依然強勁，但我們的工業物聯網業務在第四財季的收入環比和同比下降。疲軟的宏觀經濟環境導致一些客戶減少了對 DRAM 和 NAND 的整體採購。儘管如此，在工廠自動化和數字化普及的推動下，我們的工業業務的長期前景依然強勁。

Turning to the market outlook. The memory and storage industry environment has deteriorated sharply since our last earnings call. Calendar 2022, industry bit demand growth for DRAM is now expected to be in the low to mid-single-digit percentage range; and for NAND, slightly higher than 10%. An unprecedented confluence of events has affected overall demand, including COVID-related lockdowns in China, the Ukraine war, the inflationary environment impacting consumer spending and the macroeconomic environment, influencing customers' buying behavior in multiple segments. In addition, inventory adjustment at customers across all end markets are also contributing to demand weakness. These factors are depressing demand for DRAM and NAND to well below end market consumption levels. We are also seeing an extremely aggressive pricing environment. Due to the sharp decline in near-term demand, we expect supply growth to be significantly above demand growth in calendar 2022, contributing to very high supply inventories for both DRAM and NAND.

轉向後市。自我們上次召開財報電話會議以來，內存和存儲行業環境急劇惡化。到 2022 年日曆，現在預計 DRAM 的行業位需求增長將在中低個位數百分比範圍內；而對於 NAND，則略高於 10%。前所未有的事件匯合影響了整體需求，包括中國與 COVID 相關的封鎖、烏克蘭戰爭、影響消費者支出的通貨膨脹環境和宏觀經濟環境，影響了客戶在多個領域的購買行為。此外，所有終端市場客戶的庫存調整也導致需求疲軟。這些因素將 DRAM 和 NAND 的需求抑製到遠低於終端市場消費水平。我們還看到了極其激進的定價環境。由於近期需求急劇下降，我們預計 2022 年的供應增長將大大高於需求增長，導致 DRAM 和 NAND 的供應庫存非常高。

Looking ahead, in calendar 2023, while macroeconomic uncertainty is high and visibility is low, we currently expect demand growth to be closer to the long-term growth rates of both DRAM and NAND, bouncing back from very weak levels in calendar 2022. We expect the inventory at our customers to improve in early calendar 2023, causing demand to rebound starting from the second quarter of calendar 2023. We expect calendar 2023 industry DRAM supply to grow well below demand growth. We are modeling a mid-single-digit percentage growth in DRAM industry supply in 2023, which would represent the lowest ever industry supply growth. NAND supply growth in calendar 2023 is also expected to fall below demand growth.

展望未來，在 2023 日曆年，雖然宏觀經濟不確定性很高且能見度較低，但我們目前預計需求增長將更接近 DRAM 和 NAND 的長期增長率，從 2022 日曆年非常疲軟的水平反彈。我們預計我們客戶的庫存將在 2023 年初有所改善，導致需求從 2023 日曆第二季度開始反彈。我們預計 2023 日曆行業 DRAM 供應的增長將遠低於需求增長。我們正在對 2023 年 DRAM 行業供應的中個位數百分比增長進行建模，這將代表有史以來最低的行業供應增長。預計 2023 年 NAND 供應增長也將低於需求增長。

Given the elevated supplier inventories entering calendar 2023, we expect industry profitability to remain challenging in 2023. Following a weak first half of fiscal 2023, we expect strong revenue growth in the second half of fiscal 2023 as bit demands rebounds following substantial improvement in customer inventories. Projections for long-term demand trends remain strong across multiple end markets. We expect long-term demand bit growth to be in the mid-teens percentage, slightly lower than our prior expectation of mid- to high teens due to a moderation in the expectation of long-term PC unit sales. We continue to expect the NAND market, which benefits from elasticity, to grow around 28% over the long term.

鑑於進入 2023 日曆年的供應商庫存增加，我們預計 2023 年行業盈利能力仍將面臨挑戰。在 2023 財年上半年疲軟之後，我們預計 2023 財年下半年收入將強勁增長，因為隨著客戶庫存大幅改善，比特需求反彈.多個終端市場對長期需求趨勢的預測仍然強勁。由於對長期 PC 銷量的預期放緩，我們預計長期需求位增長將在 10% 左右，略低於我們之前對中高 10 歲的預期。我們繼續預計受益於彈性的 NAND 市場長期增長約 28%。

Turning to our supply. Given the change in market conditions, we have been taking immediate action to reduce our supply growth trajectory and align it to market demand.

轉向我們的供應。鑑於市場條件的變化，我們一直在立即採取行動來減少我們的供應增長軌跡並使其與市場需求保持一致。

We made significant reductions to CapEx and now expect fiscal 2023 CapEx to be around $8 billion, down more than 30% year-over-year. CapEx would be lower if it were not for more than doubling our construction CapEx year-over-year to support the supply growth required to meet demand for the second half of this decade as well as investments for EUV lithography systems to support 1-gamma node development. WFE CapEx will decline nearly 50% year-over-year, and reflects a much slower ramp of our 1-beta DRAM and 232-layer NAND versus prior expectations. Fiscal 2023, WFE CapEx is focused on developing the technology capability of our leading nodes and new product introductions.

我們大幅削減了資本支出，現在預計 2023 財年資本支出約為 80 億美元，同比下降 30% 以上。如果不是我們的建設資本支出同比增加一倍以上，以支持滿足本十年後半期需求所需的供應增長以及對 EUV 光刻系統的投資以支持 1-gamma 節點，那麼資本支出將會更低發展。 WFE 資本支出將同比下降近 50%，這反映出我們的 1-beta DRAM 和 232 層 NAND 的增長速度與之前的預期相比要慢得多。 2023 財年，WFE 資本支出專注於開發我們領先節點的技術能力和新產品推出。

To immediately address our inventory situation and reduced supply growth, we are reducing utilization in select areas in both DRAM and NAND. Our CapEx and utilization actions will have an adverse impact on our fiscal 2023 costs but they are necessary to bring our supply and inventory closer to industry demand. We will aim to grow our DRAM and NAND supply in line with demand over time while continuing to optimize our cost and portfolio to improve our profitability.

為了立即解決我們的庫存情況並減少供應增長，我們正在降低 DRAM 和 NAND 特定區域的利用率。我們的資本支出和利用行動將對我們 2023 財年的成本產生不利影響，但它們對於使我們的供應和庫存更接近行業需求是必要的。我們的目標是隨著時間的推移根據需求增加我們的 DRAM 和 NAND 供應，同時繼續優化我們的成本和產品組合以提高我們的盈利能力。

Before passing it over to Mark, I want to reflect on the tremendous progress that the Micron team has made over the last few years. Today, we are a technology leader in both DRAM and NAND with a very competitive cost structure. We have leadership products and a strong portfolio that is transitioning towards high-value solutions. And we are gaining share in products that represent a more attractive profit pool in our industry. Our balance sheet is strong and allows us to invest appropriately to maintain technology, product and manufacturing leadership going forward. Our world-class quality and manufacturing expertise is recognized by our customers worldwide. We have delivered record revenues in multiple end markets in fiscal 2022 and while returning record levels of cash to our shareholders.

在將其傳遞給 Mark 之前，我想回顧一下美光團隊在過去幾年中取得的巨大進步。今天，我們是 DRAM 和 NAND 的技術領導者，具有極具競爭力的成本結構。我們擁有領先的產品和強大的產品組合，正在向高價值解決方案過渡。我們正在獲得代表我們行業中更具吸引力的利潤池的產品份額。我們的資產負債表很強勁，使我們能夠進行適當的投資，以保持技術、產品和製造的領先地位。我們世界一流的質量和製造專業知識得到了全球客戶的認可。 2022 財年，我們在多個終端市場實現了創紀錄的收入，同時向股東返還了創紀錄水平的現金。

While the near-term environment is challenging, we are confident in our ability to emerge stronger and deliver financial performance in line with our long-term financial model. The long-term manufacturing investments we are making will further strengthen our diversified fab footprint and position us to capitalize on the exciting long-term opportunities ahead of us.

儘管近期環境充滿挑戰，但我們有信心變得更強大，並根據我們的長期財務模型提供財務業績。我們正在進行的長期製造業投資將進一步加強我們多元化的晶圓廠足跡，並使我們能夠利用擺在我們面前的令人興奮的長期機遇。

I will now turn it over to Mark.

我現在把它交給馬克。

Thanks, Sanjay. Our fiscal Q4 revenues stand consistent with our August 9 update, while EPS was within the original guidance range. Fiscal Q4 capped off a strong fiscal year in which we set a record for total revenue, generated substantial free cash flow and returned $2.9 billion to shareholders. Total fiscal Q4 revenue was $6.6 billion, down 23% sequentially and down 20% year-over-year. Fiscal 2022 total revenue was a record at $30.8 billion, up 11% year-over-year. Fiscal Q4 DRAM revenue was $4.8 billion, representing 72% of total revenue. DRAM revenue declined 23% sequentially and was down 21% year-over-year. Sequentially, bit shipments decreased by roughly 10%, while ASPs declined in the low teens percent range.

謝謝，桑傑。我們的第四財季收入與我們 8 月 9 日的更新一致，而每股收益在最初的指導範圍內。第四財季結束了強勁的財政年度，我們創造了總收入的記錄，產生了大量的自由現金流，並向股東返還了 29 億美元。第四財季總收入為 66 億美元，環比下降 23%，同比下降 20%。 2022 財年總收入達到創紀錄的 308 億美元，同比增長 11%。第四財季 DRAM 收入為 48 億美元，佔總收入的 72%。 DRAM 收入環比下降 23%，同比下降 21%。隨後，位出貨量下降了大約 10%，而 ASP 下降了 10% 左右。

For the fiscal year, DRAM revenue increased 12% year-over-year to $22.4 billion, representing 73% of total fiscal year revenue. Fiscal Q4 NAND revenue was $1.7 billion, representing 25% of Micron's total revenue. NAND revenue declined 26% sequentially and was down 14% year-over-year. Sequential bit shipments declined in the low 20s percentage range and ASPs declined in the mid- to high single-digit percentage range. For the fiscal year, NAND revenue increased 11% year-over-year to a record $7.8 billion, representing 25% of total fiscal year revenue.

本財年，DRAM 收入同比增長 12% 至 224 億美元，佔本財年總收入的 73%。第四財季 NAND 收入為 17 億美元，占美光總收入的 25%。 NAND 收入環比下降 26%，同比下降 14%。連續位出貨量在 20 年代的低百分比範圍內下降，平均售價在中高個位數百分比範圍內下降。本財年，NAND 收入同比增長 11%，達到創紀錄的 78 億美元，佔本財年總收入的 25%。

Turning to our fiscal Q4 revenue trends by business unit. Revenue for the Compute and Networking Business Unit was $2.9 billion, down 25% sequentially and down 23% year-over-year. The sequential decline was primarily driven by client, while declines in server and graphics were less pronounced. Networking revenue hit a new record in fiscal 2022. Revenue for the Mobile Business Unit was approximately $1.5 billion, down 23% sequentially and down 20% year-over-year. Mobile revenue for fiscal 2022 set a new record. Revenue for the Storage Business Unit was $891 million, down 34% sequentially and down 26% year-over-year.

轉向我們按業務部門劃分的第四季度財政收入趨勢。計算和網絡業務部門的收入為 29 億美元，環比下降 25%，同比下降 23%。環比下降主要是由客戶端驅動的，而服務器和圖形的下降則不那麼明顯。網絡收入在 2022 財年創下新紀錄。移動業務部門的收入約為 15 億美元，環比下降 23%，同比下降 20%。 2022 財年的移動收入創下新紀錄。存儲業務部門的收入為 8.91 億美元，環比下降 34%，同比下降 26%。

For the fiscal year, NAND revenue in the Storage Business Unit was its highest ever with share gains in both client and data center SSDs. Finally, revenue for the Embedded Business Unit was $1.3 billion, down 9% sequentially and down 4% year-over-year.

本財年，存儲業務部門的 NAND 收入創下歷史新高，客戶端和數據中心 SSD 的份額均有所增長。最後，嵌入式業務部門的收入為 13 億美元，環比下降 9%，同比下降 4%。

For fiscal 2022, EBU delivered $5.2 billion of revenue supported by revenue records in automotive and industrial markets. The consolidated gross margin for fiscal Q4 was 40.3%, down approximately 7 percentage points sequentially. Lower pricing was the primary driver of the decline. For the fiscal year, the consolidated gross margin was 45.9%, up approximately 6 percentage points year-over-year.

在 2022 財年，EBU 實現了 52 億美元的收入，這得益於汽車和工業市場的收入記錄。第四財季綜合毛利率為 40.3%，環比下降約 7 個百分點。較低的定價是下降的主要驅動力。本財年，綜合毛利率為45.9%，同比增長約6個百分點。

Operating expenses in fiscal Q4 were just over $1 billion and below the guidance range provided on our last earnings call, due in part to lower variable compensation in the quarter. Sequentially, OpEx was up around $60 million, due primarily to the timing of technology development spend. For the fiscal year, operating expenses were $3.8 billion, up approximately $500 million year-over-year driven by R&D to support our product and technology road maps.

第四財季的運營費用略高於 10 億美元，低於我們上次財報電話會議提供的指導範圍，部分原因是該季度的可變薪酬較低。隨後，運營支出增加了約 6000 萬美元，主要是由於技術開發支出的時機。在本財年，運營費用為 38 億美元，同比增長約 5 億美元，主要由研發推動，以支持我們的產品和技術路線圖。

Fiscal Q4 operating income was $1.7 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 25%, down approximately 11 percentage points sequentially and down 12 points from the prior year. Fiscal 2022 operating income was $10.3 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 33.4%, up approximately 6 percentage points from the prior year. Fiscal Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $3.6 billion, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 53.5%, down 390 basis points sequentially. For the fiscal year, adjusted EBITDA was $17.4 billion, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 56.7%. Fiscal Q4 taxes were $74 million or over 4% of pretax income. For fiscal 2022, total taxes were $793 million or approximately 8% of pretax income. Non-GAAP earnings per share in fiscal Q4 was $1.45, down from $2.59 in fiscal Q3 and $2.42 in the year ago quarter. Non-GAAP EPS was $8.35 for the fiscal year, up from $6.06 in the prior year.

第四財季營業收入為 17 億美元，營業利潤率為 25%，環比下降約 11 個百分點，比上年下降 12 個百分點。 2022財年營業收入為103億美元，營業利潤率為33.4%，比上年增長約6個百分點。第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 36 億美元，EBITDA 利潤率為 53.5%，環比下降 390 個基點。本財年，調整後的 EBITDA 為 174 億美元，EBITDA 利潤率為 56.7%。第四季度的稅收為 7400 萬美元或超過稅前收入的 4%。 2022 財年的稅收總額為 7.93 億美元，約佔稅前收入的 8%。第四財季非公認會計準則每股收益為 1.45 美元，低於第三財季的 2.59 美元和去年同期的 2.42 美元。本財年非公認會計原則每股收益為 8.35 美元，高於上一年的 6.06 美元。

Turning to cash flows capital spending. We generated $3.8 billion in cash from operations in fiscal Q4, representing 57% of revenue. For the fiscal year, we generated $15.2 billion of cash from operations, representing 49% of revenue. Capital expenditures were $3.6 billion during the quarter and $12 billion for the fiscal year. We generated $196 million of free cash flow in fiscal Q4 and $3.2 billion for the fiscal year.

轉向現金流資本支出。我們在第四財季的運營中產生了 38 億美元的現金，佔收入的 57%。在本財年，我們從運營中產生了 152 億美元的現金，佔收入的 49%。本季度資本支出為 36 億美元，本財年為 120 億美元。我們在第四財季創造了 1.96 億美元的自由現金流，在本財年創造了 32 億美元。

Fiscal year 2022 was the sixth consecutive year of positive free cash flow for Micron. During the quarter, we completed share repurchases of $784 million or 13.2 million shares. For the fiscal year, we completed share repurchases of $2.4 billion, representing 35.4 million shares. Including our dividend payments, we returned $2.9 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2022, representing 90% of free cash flow. We remain committed to returning 100% of free cash flow across the cycle through a combination of share repurchases and dividends.

2022 財年是美光連續第六年實現正自由現金流。本季度，我們完成了 7.84 億美元或 1320 萬股的股票回購。在本財年，我們完成了 24 億美元的股票回購，代表 3540 萬股。包括我們的股息支付，我們在 2022 財年向股東返還了 29 億美元，佔自由現金流的 90%。我們仍然致力於通過股票回購和股息的組合在整個週期中返還 100% 的自由現金流。

Our ending fiscal Q4 inventory was $6.7 billion, and average days of inventory for the quarter was 139 days, reflecting weaker market conditions during the quarter. Our balance sheet is rock solid with strong liquidity, low leverage ratio and a net cash position. We ended fiscal 2022 with $13.6 billion of liquidity, exceeding our mid-30s percentage of revenue target. Fiscal Q4 ending cash and investments were $11.1 billion and total debt was $6.9 million.

我們第四季度末的庫存為 67 億美元，本季度的平均庫存天數為 139 天，反映出本季度市場狀況疲軟。我們的資產負債表堅如磐石，流動性強，槓桿率低，擁有淨現金頭寸。我們以 136 億美元的流動性結束了 2022 財年，超過了我們 30 年代中期收入目標的百分比。第四季度末現金和投資為 111 億美元，總債務為 690 萬美元。

Now turning to our outlook for the fiscal first quarter. As a result of the demand challenges described by Sanjay earlier, we expect fiscal Q1 bit shipments and pricing to decline in both DRAM and NAND. We expect that inflationary pressure will continue to be a headwind to costs in Q1 in fiscal 2023. We remain disciplined in our expense management and have taken specific actions with more planned. As we look ahead, macroeconomic uncertainty is high and visibility is low. In fiscal Q2, we currently expect revenue to be in a similar range as fiscal Q1 with bit shipments up but still weak for both DRAM and NAND. We also expect a recovery in volumes and revenues in the second half of the fiscal year. We expect our inventory to increase in the fiscal first half of 2023 and days of inventory to improve as demand recovers in the second half of the fiscal year.

現在轉向我們對第一財季的展望。由於 Sanjay 早些時候描述的需求挑戰，我們預計第一財季 DRAM 和 NAND 的位出貨量和價格都將下降。我們預計，通脹壓力將繼續成為 2023 財年第一季度成本的不利因素。我們在費用管理方面保持紀律性，並採取了更多有計劃的具體行動。展望未來，宏觀經濟的不確定性很高，可見度很低。在第二財季，我們目前預計收入將與第一財季相似，位出貨量上升，但 DRAM 和 NAND 仍然疲軟。我們還預計本財年下半年的銷量和收入將恢復。我們預計我們的庫存將在 2023 財年上半年增加，並且隨著本財年下半年需求的複蘇，庫存天數將有所改善。

As Sanjay mentioned, we expect our fiscal 2023 capital spending to be around $8 billion, down more than 30% year-over-year, driven by a near 50% decline in wafer fab equipment CapEx. We expect capital spending to be weighted toward the first half of the fiscal year. And as a result, we project to be over $1.5 billion negative free cash flow in the November quarter. We continue to evaluate ways to improve free cash flow, including reducing CapEx, lowering expenses and managing working capital as we respond to market conditions.

正如桑傑所說，我們預計我們 2023 財年的資本支出約為 80 億美元，同比下降 30% 以上，這主要是由於晶圓廠設備資本支出下降了近 50%。我們預計資本支出將在本財年上半年加權。因此，我們預計 11 月季度的負自由現金流將超過 15 億美元。我們將繼續評估改善自由現金流的方法，包括減少資本支出、降低開支和管理營運資金，以應對市場狀況。

In fiscal 2023, we expect our tax rate to be elevated. Unless Congress repeals or delays recent changes to R&D deductibility, recent legislation requires that for tax purposes, we capitalize and amortize R&D expense this fiscal year. In addition, based on our income mix and U.S. and foreign tax rules, our taxes become more fixed at these lower profitability levels. These factors result in an estimated tax of approximately $300 million at a minimum. Beyond this level, the actual tax expense will depend on the level of operating income through the year.

在 2023 財年，我們預計我們的稅率將會提高。除非國會廢除或推遲最近對研發扣除的變更，否則最近的立法要求出於稅收目的，我們在本財年將研發費用資本化並攤銷。此外，根據我們的收入組合以及美國和外國的稅收規則，我們的稅收在這些較低的盈利水平上變得更加固定。這些因素導致估計稅至少約為 3 億美元。超出這一水平，實際稅費將取決於全年的營業收入水平。

So in this lower pretax profitability, fiscal year 2023, we expect a materially higher tax rate. Long term, as our profitability normalizes, we expect our tax rate to be in the low to mid-teens percentage range. With all these factors in mind, our non-GAAP guidance for the fiscal Q1 is as follows. We expect revenue to be $4.25 billion, plus or minus $250 million; gross margin to be in the range of 26%, plus or minus 200 basis points; and operating expenses to be $1 billion, plus or minus $25 million. Based on a share count of approximately 1.12 billion fully diluted shares, we expect EPS to be $0.04, plus or minus $0.10.

因此，在這個較低的稅前盈利能力，即 2023 財年，我們預計稅率會大幅提高。長期來看，隨著我們的盈利能力正常化，我們預計我們的稅率將在低至十幾歲的百分比範圍內。考慮到所有這些因素，我們對第一財季的非公認會計準則指導如下。我們預計收入為 42.5 億美元，上下浮動 2.5 億美元；毛利率在 26% 的範圍內，上下浮動 200 個基點；運營費用為 10 億美元，上下浮動 2500 萬美元。基於大約 11.2 億股完全稀釋後的股票數量，我們預計每股收益為 0.04 美元，上下浮動 0.10 美元。

In closing, we had many meaningful accomplishments in fiscal 2022, including delivering record revenue, achieving clear technology leadership in both DRAM and NAND, increasing share in client and data center SSDs, further strengthening our balance sheet and returning a record amount of capital to our shareholders. While the near-term environment is challenging, the Micron of today is extremely well prepared to navigate it with our competitive cost structure, strong product portfolio and rock-solid balance sheet. Beyond fiscal 2023, a year starting out with a challenging set of external events, we are confident in our ability to deliver financial performance consistent with our long-term cross-cycle financial model, including revenue growth of high single digits, operating margins of 30% and free cash flow margin of over 10%.

最後，我們在 2022 財年取得了許多有意義的成就，包括實現創紀錄的收入、在 DRAM 和 NAND 方面實現明顯的技術領先地位、增加客戶和數據中心 SSD 的份額、進一步加強我們的資產負債表以及為我們的資產返還創紀錄的資本股東。儘管近期環境充滿挑戰，但今天的美光已做好充分準備，以我們具有競爭力的成本結構、強大的產品組合和堅如磐石的資產負債表來應對。在 2023 財年之後，這一年以一系列具有挑戰性的外部事件開始，我們有信心提供與我們的長期跨週期財務模型一致的財務業績，包括高個位數的收入增長、30 倍的營業利潤率% 和超過 10% 的自由現金流量利潤率。

I will now turn it back to Sanjay.

我現在把它轉回給桑傑。

Thank you, Mark. The current macroeconomic environment presents an unprecedented challenge for the industry. Our rapid actions to both moderate utilization and sharply reduce CapEx illustrate our commitment to supply discipline and our focus on bringing our supply and demand back into balance. The Micron team continues to execute with agility to changing business conditions. We remain committed to our strategy of maintaining stable bit share and growing profitability with a portfolio of higher value solutions. And we are confident in the long-term technology drivers for memory. New data-centric applications and technology will drive long-term memory demand on the trajectory that outpaces growth in other semiconductor categories. Our strategic investments underscore this confidence and will ensure Micron is able to capitalize on these long-term trends in the decade ahead.

謝謝你，馬克。當前的宏觀經濟環境對行業提出了前所未有的挑戰。我們迅速採取行動適度利用並大幅降低資本支出，這表明我們對供應紀律的承諾以及我們致力於使供需恢復平衡的承諾。美光團隊繼續靈活地執行以應對不斷變化的業務條件。我們仍然致力於通過一系列更高價值的解決方案保持穩定的比特份額和提高盈利能力的戰略。我們對內存的長期技術驅動力充滿信心。新的以數據為中心的應用程序和技術將推動長期內存需求，其增長速度超過其他半導體類別。我們的戰略投資強調了這種信心，並將確保美光能夠在未來十年利用這些長期趨勢。

Thanks for joining us today. We will now open for questions.

感謝您今天加入我們。我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

The first question comes from the line of C.J. Muse from Evercore ISI.

第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess first question, can you provide a little bit more detail around the magnitude of utilization cuts and how we should be thinking about any other utilization challenges to gross margins in November and February quarters?

我想第一個問題，您能否提供更多關於利用率削減幅度的詳細信息，以及我們應該如何考慮 11 月和 2 月季度毛利率面臨的任何其他利用率挑戰？

So I think I can answer the first part, and then Mark can take on the second part on the margins. So with respect to the utilization cuts, they are across NAND and DRAM, and approximately in the mid-single-digit range. And of course, these cuts are for the products that have been in high inventory.

所以我想我可以回答第一部分，然後馬克可以在邊緣承擔第二部分。因此，就利用率削減而言，它們涉及 NAND 和 DRAM，並且大約在中個位數範圍內。當然，這些削減是針對高庫存的產品。

And so we are cutting production of those products and using the equipment that is freed up and the space that is freed up to deploy it toward the new technology transitions. So that actually helps us with CapEx efficiency.

因此，我們正在削減這些產品的生產，並使用騰出的設備和騰出的空間將其部署到新技術過渡中。所以這實際上有助於我們提高資本支出效率。

And Mark can comment on the gross margin impact.

馬克可以評論毛利率的影響。

Yes. C.J., as you mentioned, it's really going to hit us not in the first quarter, but later in the year, and it would be between 1 and 2 points of impact at this point. And of course, depending on market conditions, we would either dial that back or bring utilization lower.

是的。 C.J.，正如你所提到的，它真的不會在第一季度而是在今年晚些時候對我們造成影響，此時會產生 1 到 2 個影響點。當然，根據市場情況，我們要么將其撥回，要么降低利用率。

Very helpful. And as a quick follow-up, considering your strong net cash position, but your guidance for free cash to be free cash flow negative. What's your near-term philosophy around buybacks?

非常有幫助。作為快速跟進，考慮到您強勁的淨現金狀況，但您對自由現金的指導是自由現金流為負。您對回購的近期理念是什麼？

Well, I think I'll state really no change around -- we're going to continue to focus on returning 100% of free cash flow to shareholders. We did repurchase in the first quarter. And so we will opportunistically repurchase. As you point out, C.J., we are cash flow challenged in the first quarter. It's been an unprecedented downturn, sharp and sudden. And it has, of course, associated inventory builds. It's suppressed our income, of course. And then we've got elevated CapEx as it happened so quickly. So we expect $1.5 billion negative in the first. We'll be challenged in the second as well as we deal with elevated inventory levels and then the revenues that we guided or the bit shipments we talked about.

好吧，我想我會說真的沒有任何變化——我們將繼續專注於向股東返還 100% 的自由現金流。我們確實在第一季度進行了回購。所以我們會機會性地回購。正如你所指出的，C.J.，我們在第一季度面臨現金流挑戰。這是一場史無前例的衰退，急劇而突然。當然，它還有相關的庫存構建。當然，這抑制了我們的收入。然後我們提高了資本支出，因為它發生得如此之快。因此，我們預計第一季度為負 15 億美元。我們將在第二階段面臨挑戰，我們將處理庫存水平升高，然後是我們指導的收入或我們談到的位出貨量。

And then the CapEx will take time to work down. We expect it to be weighted in the first half more heavily. We do expect with the volume recovery in the back half of the year and lower CapEx and inventories coming down. We do expect to return to free cash flow generation in the second half. And of course, we're working -- continue to work CapEx, continue to work expenses down, working our -- managing our working capital best we can, to improve from this first quarter projection we have.

然後資本支出將需要時間來降低。我們預計上半年的權重會更大。我們確實預計今年下半年的銷量回升以及資本支出下降和庫存下降。我們確實希望在下半年恢復自由現金流的產生。當然，我們正在努力——繼續努力資本支出，繼續降低開支，努力——盡我們所能管理我們的營運資金，以改善我們對第一季度的預測。

And our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自 Timothy Arcuri UBS。

Mark, so it sounds like you're basically calling sort of February as the bottom in earnings. It sounds like revenue is going to be about flat. But obviously, gross margin is probably going to move lower because you said pricing is going to come down, and it sounds like costs are going to go up. But I guess my question is more sort of around the behavior from these cloud customers in light of what's happening to supply. I mean, DRAM supply is, as you said, up only mid-singles next year. Most of that has to be coming out of inventory. So production is probably pretty flat across the industry, if not down. So these are pretty sophisticated customers. So I would think that they're going to come back to the table pretty early next year such that you could see a pretty sharp recovery in pricing. So I'm just sort of wondering if maybe, Sanjay or Mark, you can talk about sort of the behavior from these cloud customers and sort of how you think this plays out through the year as you've sort of called February as the bottom.

馬克，所以聽起來你基本上把 2 月份稱為收入的最低點。聽起來收入將基本持平。但很明顯，毛利率可能會下降，因為你說定價會下降，聽起來成本會上升。但我想我的問題更多是圍繞這些雲客戶的行為，考慮到供應的情況。我的意思是，正如你所說，DRAM 供應量在明年僅增長中單。其中大部分必須來自庫存。因此，整個行業的生產可能相當平穩，如果不是下降的話。所以這些都是相當老練的客戶。所以我認為他們將在明年年初回到談判桌前，這樣你就可以看到定價的大幅回升。所以我只是想知道，Sanjay 或 Mark，您是否可以談論這些雲客戶的行為，以及您認為這會如何在一年中發揮作用，因為您將 2 月稱為底部.

So look, we are not going to project future pricing trend here. But of course, we will continue to work closely with customers, not just in cloud, but customers across all end market segments. And of course, as we noted, the inventories are -- at our customers are high across all end market segments, and they are adjusting their inventory levels, including in cloud. We will, of course, most important thing is to take actions, and we have taken decisive action with respect to WFE reduction by nearly 50% and reducing our supply growth. We expect the industry supply growth to be in the mid-single digit in 2023, and our supply growth will also be in line with the industry around the same for DRAM.

所以看，我們不打算在這裡預測未來的定價趨勢。但當然，我們將繼續與客戶密切合作，不僅僅是在雲領域，而是在所有終端細分市場的客戶。當然，正如我們所指出的，我們的客戶的庫存在所有終端細分市場都很高，他們正在調整庫存水平，包括在雲中。當然，我們將採取行動，最重要的是採取行動，我們已經採取果斷行動，將 WFE 減少近 50% 並減少我們的供應增長。我們預計 2023 年行業供應增長將處於中個位數，我們的 DRAM 供應增長也將與行業大致相同。

So I think what's important is that the supply growth will be less, while the demand growth, once inventory adjustments at customers have normalized or have substantially improved by our second -- fiscal second half, then demand will go up from customers. And we expect that the DRAM demand will be in mid-teens supported by inventory, but the supply growth will be meaningfully less than demand growth. And that's what will bring an improving trajectory of industry supply/demand balance and improving fundamentals for our business as we go through calendar year '23.

所以我認為重要的是供應增長會減少，而需求增長，一旦客戶的庫存調整正常化或到我們的第二財季有實質性改善，那麼客戶的需求就會上升。我們預計 DRAM 需求將受到庫存的支持，但供應增長將明顯低於需求增長。這將帶來行業供需平衡的改善軌跡，並在我們度過 23 日曆年時改善我們業務的基本面。

Can I just clarify on that, Sanjay? So your supply will be mid-single digits, but your production is actually going to be down year-over-year, correct?

我可以澄清一下嗎，桑傑？所以你的供應量將是中個位數，但你的產量實際上會逐年下降，對嗎？

What we are saying is that the supply growth will be mid-single digits. And -- but the shipments will be in the mid-teens range, in line with the demand recovery that we expect. And we are also saying that we expect industry supply growth to be also in the mid-single digit for DRAM next year. Remember, this is -- this would correspond to the lowest on record supply growth for DRAM. So again, the supply growth will be in the mid-single digits. Inventory will be used to supply the demand, which will be higher than the supply growth, we expect the demand to be in mid-teens next year.

我們所說的是供應增長將是中個位數。而且——但出貨量將在十幾歲左右，符合我們預期的需求復蘇。而且我們還說，我們預計明年 DRAM 的行業供應增長也將達到中個位數。請記住，這是 - 這將對應於 DRAM 的最低供應增長記錄。因此，供應增長將再次處於中個位數。庫存將用於供應需求，這將高於供應增長，我們預計明年需求將在十幾歲左右。

Yes. And maybe, Tim, just to maybe provide some color around the quarters, we do expect, as we've laid out that bits and ASP will be down in the first quarter. And they're down about the same, volume may be down a little bit more. Costs are slightly up in DRAM and NAND, and that's just a combination of volume mix inflation and then just node timing.

是的。也許，蒂姆，也許只是為了在季度周圍提供一些顏色，我們確實預計，因為我們已經制定了比特和 ASP 將在第一季度下降。而且它們的下降幅度大致相同，成交量可能會下降一點。 DRAM 和 NAND 的成本略有上升，這只是體積組合膨脹和節點時序的結合。

In the second quarter, as Sanjay mentioned, bits will be up, but they'll still be down year-over-year. And then as we said, the revenue range will be similar to the first quarter. And then in the second half, bits will be up sequentially third to fourth quarter. And then second half should be up a bits year-over-year. And then costs for the full year, we would expect DRAM cost downs to be lower than the long-term average. We do get some benefit from FX, but we get some inflation and some other factors that go against us. And then NAND, cost reductions are challenged, a combination of mix and inflation, and just a more difficult situation there. But I think the important takeaway is from the first quarter, we expect things to improve versus volumes and then the market better in the second half.

正如 Sanjay 所說，在第二季度，比特數會上升，但仍會同比下降。然後正如我們所說，收入範圍將與第一季度相似。然後在下半年，比特將在第三季度到第四季度連續上漲。然後下半年應該會同比增長一點。然後是全年的成本，我們預計 DRAM 成本下降將低於長期平均水平。我們確實從外匯中獲得了一些好處，但我們得到了一些通貨膨脹和其他一些不利於我們的因素。然後是NAND，成本降低受到挑戰，混合和通貨膨脹的結合，只是一個更加困難的情況。但我認為重要的收穫是從第一季度開始，我們預計情況會比銷量有所改善，然後下半年市場會好轉。

Our next question comes from the line of Karl Ackerman from BNP Paribas.

我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Karl Ackerman。

I have 2 questions, please. I guess the first question is just kind of a follow-up on CapEx. I know in the past, you have described capital intensity being in the 30% to 35% range of sales. But it does appear that memory demand for calendar '22 and calendar '23 could still be below your long-term expectations of mid-teens DRAM demand and 20% to 30% for NAND demand.

我有2個問題，請。我想第一個問題只是對資本支出的一種跟進。我知道過去，您曾描述資本密集度在銷售額的 30% 到 35% 範圍內。但似乎 '22 日曆和 '23 日曆的內存需求仍可能低於您對 10 歲中期 DRAM 需求和 NAND 需求的 20% 至 30% 的長期預期。

And so I guess the question is, do you believe that the industry's framework for CapEx needs to consider a lower terminal bit growth rate for DRAM and NAND, and I guess what are your own views on managing long-term capital investments to support bit demand beyond fiscal '23? And then I have a follow-up, please.

所以我想問題是，你認為行業的資本支出框架是否需要考慮 DRAM 和 NAND 的較低終端比特增長率，我想你對管理長期資本投資以支持比特需求有何看法23 財年之後？然後我有一個跟進，請。

So our view on long-term DRAM CAGR is mid-teens and NAND CAGR approximately 28%. And we would always be managing our investments to grow our supply in line with demand. Of course, there can be variations through the cycle, but we will overall focus on making adjustments as needed, just like you have seen adjustments now.

因此，我們對長期 DRAM 複合年增長率的看法是十幾歲左右，而 NAND 複合年增長率約為 28%。我們將始終管理我們的投資，以根據需求增加供應。當然，在整個週期中可能會有變化，但我們將總體上專注於根據需要進行調整，就像您現在看到的調整一樣。

And just keep in mind that -- as we look ahead at CapEx considerations, we should keep in mind that the tech transitions are getting more expensive. And of course, tech transitions are taking longer as well. So the capital intensity is higher, tech transitions are also giving actually lower bit growth. And of course, transition to DDR5 is also contributing to lower rate growth per wafer because DDR5 die, it has to be just bigger than the DDR4 die because of the specifications.

請記住——當我們展望資本支出時，我們應該記住，技術轉型的成本越來越高。當然，技術轉型也需要更長的時間。因此，資本密集度更高，技術轉型實際上也帶來了更低的比特增長。當然，過渡到 DDR5 也有助於降低每個晶圓的增長率，因為 DDR5 芯片由於規格的原因，它必須比 DDR4 芯片大。

So our expectation is a cross cycle on average over long term, our CapEx would be around mid-30s that we have stated earlier, mid-30s percent of revenue. And of course, any given year, there can be variations, but that's a cross-cycle CapEx intensity that we would be expecting.

因此，我們的預期是長期平均跨週期，我們的資本支出將在我們之前所說的 30 年代中期左右，佔收入的 30 年代中期。當然，任何給定的年份都可能存在變化，但這是我們預期的跨週期資本支出強度。

I appreciate that, Sanjay. I guess for my follow-up, I was curious what portion of your unfinished goods inventory is fungible and can be repurposed to either different end markets or different customers even within that payment end market? Just any clarity in terms of how you can kind of repurpose some of the inventories that you have would be quite helpful.

我很感激，桑傑。我想對於我的後續行動，我很好奇你們的未成品庫存中有多少部分是可替代的，並且即使在該支付終端市場中也可以重新用於不同的終端市場或不同的客戶？就如何重新利用您擁有的一些庫存而言，任何明確的說明都會非常有幫助。

Yes. I think, Karl, most of it is designed to the way we build it, designed to be repurposed. I mean, there's some limitations, of course. But that strategy is going to yield benefit here because this downturn was so sharp and sudden unprecedented that inventories have grown to levels over what we thought just last quarter when we had our earnings call. We ended at 139 days. We should be down around 100, 110 ideally. But we do expect an increase again in the first quarter to be over 150 days, and it will be elevated through the second quarter and stay elevated probably through the balance of the year until the recovery is meaningful and customers replenish their own inventories.

是的。我認為，Karl，其中大部分都是按照我們構建它的方式設計的，旨在重新利用。我的意思是，當然有一些限制。但這一策略將在這裡產生效益，因為這種低迷如此劇烈和突然，前所未有，以至於庫存已經增長到我們在上個季度召開財報電話會議時所認為的水平。我們在 139 天結束。理想情況下，我們應該下降大約 100、110。但我們確實預計第一季度將再次增加超過 150 天，並且將在第二季度繼續上升，並可能在今年餘下時間保持高位，直到復蘇有意義並且客戶補充自己的庫存。

But we should see it begin to decline in days over the back half. And of course, this view shape the CapEx you as well to take supply out, and -- but we're confident that over time -- it's good inventory. I think it's leading node primarily. And as you point out, it's fungible in a sense. So we're confident that over time, we'll be able to redeploy or use that inventory and eventually get down to our target 100, 110 days.

但我們應該看到它在後半段的幾天內開始下降。當然，這種觀點也塑造了資本支出，你也可以把供應拿出來，而且——但我們相信，隨著時間的推移——這是很好的庫存。我認為它主要是領先的節點。正如你所指出的，它在某種意義上是可替代的。因此，我們有信心，隨著時間的推移，我們將能夠重新部署或使用該庫存，並最終達到我們的目標 100、110 天。

And our next question comes from the line Joseph Moore from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的約瑟夫摩爾。

Great. I wonder if you could talk about the November quarter. At the midpoint, it looks like your cost of sales comes down almost $900 million sequentially. And I think of that as being kind of depreciation, labor overhead, things like that. What's happening there that the sort of fixed cost elements of that are coming down so much? And is that sustainable beyond the November quarter?

偉大的。我想知道你是否可以談談 11 月季度。在中點，您的銷售成本似乎環比下降了近 9 億美元。我認為這是一種折舊，人工費用，諸如此類。那裡發生了什麼，導致固定成本要素大幅下降？這在 11 月季度之後是否可持續？

Yes, Joe, we're -- I mean, we're -- clearly, we're running the fabs and that's being absorbed into inventories. So I think that's the short answer to your question. Volumes are down, of course. So...

是的，喬，我們 - 我的意思是，我們 - 很明顯，我們正在運營晶圓廠，這正在被庫存吸收。所以我認為這是對你問題的簡短回答。當然，成交量下降了。所以...

Yes. Okay. But you built $1 billion worth of inventory in the August quarter, almost that much, and you had $4 billion of cost of sales, and it's going down to $3.1 million next quarter. So I guess it's just a pretty significant inventory build as the way to read that?

是的。好的。但是你在 8 月季度建立了價值 10 億美元的庫存，幾乎就是這麼多，你有 40 億美元的銷售成本，下個季度將下降到 310 萬美元。所以我想這只是一個非常重要的庫存構建作為閱讀方式？

Yes. I think as I answered in the last question, we're -- inventory levels are high and they're going to be higher. There'll be over 150 days, we believe. And -- again, it's a function of this unprecedented period, and we're doing what we can to affect future supply or future capacity, be in a position to work those inventories down. They're high-quality inventory, so they will be usable. And we're managing working capital expenses, cash flow, all of them aggressively at this time.

是的。我認為正如我在上一個問題中回答的那樣，我們 - 庫存水平很高，而且還會更高。我們相信會有超過 150 天。而且 - 再次，這是這個前所未有的時期的一個功能，我們正在盡我們所能來影響未來的供應或未來的產能，以降低這些庫存。它們是高質量的庫存，因此可以使用。我們目前正在積極地管理營運資本支出、現金流量。

And our next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Mark, just a quick follow-up. You commented that February revenue could track flattish but gross margin would at least be down 2 points because you said the underutilization charges would have a gross margin impact later. Is that -- should I assume that, that will happen in February?

馬克，只是一個快速的跟進。您評論說 2 月份的收入可能會持平，但毛利率至少會下降 2 個百分點，因為您說未充分利用的費用稍後會對毛利率產生影響。那是 - 我應該假設那將在二月發生嗎？

Yes. It would be -- it depends on when the inventory is clear, but -- yes, later in the year, Mehdi. And then you've got -- gross margin, of course, is going to be a function. It's not just that cost element, it's going to be pricing. And at that point in the market we think volumes are recovering -- and we're just -- we're not guiding out at that point on the rest of the P&L -- or the elements of the P&L.

是的。這將是 - 這取決於庫存何時清晰，但是 - 是的，在今年晚些時候，Mehdi。然後你有 - 當然，毛利率將成為一個函數。這不僅僅是成本因素，還有定價。在市場的那個時候，我們認為交易量正在恢復——我們只是——我們沒有在那個時候指導其他損益表——或者損益表的元素。

Should I expect 200 basis points of gross margin hit due to underutilization throughout the remainder of fiscal '23?

由於在 23 財年剩餘時間內未充分利用，我是否應該預期毛利率會下降 200 個基點？

Mehdi, we're not -- I mean, that's going to be a headwind in the back half of the year, but it's -- but we're not guiding those quarters at this point. Just we gave a framework for how we see our business recovering along with the broader industry and what we believe will be the demand activity with our customers.

Mehdi，我們不是 - 我的意思是，這將是今年下半年的逆風，但它是 - 但我們目前沒有指導這些季度。只是我們給出了一個框架，說明我們如何看待我們的業務與更廣泛的行業一起復蘇，以及我們認為客戶的需求活動將是什麼。

Sure. Fair. And I guess my follow-up question is also related to on underutilization rate. You laid out a very conservative view on the shipment for '23, especially on the supply side. But you're also assuming the demand would inflect to be after February quarter. Would there be a scenario that demand actually -- the demand improvement is not as significant? And would you be willing to take additional unutilization charges?

當然。公平的。而且我想我的後續問題也與未充分利用率有關。您對 23 年的出貨量提出了非常保守的看法，尤其是在供應方面。但您還假設需求將在 2 月季度之後發生變化。是否會出現實際需求的情況——需求改善不那麼顯著？您是否願意承擔額外的未使用費用？

So Mehdi I would say that we would, of course, continue to monitor the macro trends as well as the trends in our industry and the overall business. And of course, we will be prepared to take necessary actions as appropriate to address the short-term as well as the long-term needs. So we will continue to look at, just like we have moved decisively here with respect to underutilization, looking at products that have excess inventory and leveraging that underutilization, as I said before, towards using the tools towards differing CapEx requirements. And we'll continue to look for those opportunities as needed.

所以 Mehdi 我會說，我們當然會繼續監控宏觀趨勢以及我們行業和整體業務的趨勢。當然，我們將準備採取必要的行動來解決短期和長期的需求。因此，我們將繼續關注，就像我們在未充分利用方面果斷採取行動一樣，關注庫存過多的產品，並利用未充分利用的產品，正如我之前所說，使用這些工具來滿足不同的資本支出要求。我們將繼續根據需要尋找這些機會。

And our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

I think, Sanjay, in your prepared remarks, you mentioned calendar '23 bit demand will be in line with historical trends. I'm curious, what are your assumptions about the PC and the smartphone market next year that would support bit demand growth to be in line with historical trends?

我認為，桑傑，在你準備好的評論中，你提到日曆'23 位需求將符合歷史趨勢。我很好奇，您對明年 PC 和智能手機市場的假設是什麼，以支持比特需求增長與歷史趨勢保持一致？

So with respect to PC, this year, PC -- overall PC unit demand is down as I mentioned in the script, mid-teens percentage points. And next year in calendar year '23, we expect it to be flat to slightly down. And with respect to smartphones, we certainly expect that China would be opening up and China economy would be rebounding. The COVID lockdowns have had significant impact on China demand. So overall smartphone unit sales this year down on a year-over-year basis, down high single digits. And we would expect that next year, there would be some rebound in the smartphone unit sales.

所以就個人電腦而言，今年，個人電腦——正如我在腳本中提到的那樣，整體個人電腦單位需求下降了 10 個百分點左右。明年 '23 日曆年，我們預計它會持平或略有下降。而在智能手機方面，我們當然預計中國會開放，中國經濟會反彈。 COVID封鎖對中國的需求產生了重大影響。因此，今年智能手機的整體銷量同比下降，下降了高個位數。我們預計明年智能手機銷量將會出現一些反彈。

Again, I think what's important is that the content continues to be the biggest driver of growth. 5G phones need more memory, need more storage. And as we also highlighted in our prepared remarks, of course, we are extremely focused on shifting the business away from what used to be 55% in consumer side, including PC and smartphone, in fiscal year '21, towards going to 38% by fiscal year '25. And so we are really marching along well on that strategy.

同樣，我認為重要的是內容仍然是增長的最大驅動力。 5G 手機需要更多內存，需要更多存儲空間。正如我們在準備好的評論中所強調的那樣，當然，我們非常專注於將業務從 21 財年的消費端（包括 PC 和智能手機）的 55% 轉變為到 38% '25財政年度。因此，我們在這一戰略上確實進展順利。

In fact, in fiscal year '22, we reduced that percentage to 48%. So we are increasing the mix of more attractive and more stable markets such as, of course, data center and automotive, industrial, networking, graphics, and we are successfully delivering on that strategy.

事實上，在 22 財年，我們將該百分比降至 48%。因此，我們正在增加更具吸引力和更穩定的市場組合，例如數據中心和汽車、工業、網絡、圖形，我們正在成功實施這一戰略。

It's very helpful. And then on the range of WFE cuts for next year, are you expecting your competitors to also reduce spending by the same level? And where I'm going with that question is at what point does it become a competitive concern? Because historically, most of your spending has been on technology. So if you're cutting that by 50%, at what point does it impact your competitive capabilities and impact your cost down capabilities?

這很有幫助。然後在明年的 WFE 削減幅度上，您是否期望您的競爭對手也將支出減少相同的水平？我要回答這個問題的是，它在什麼時候會成為競爭問題？因為從歷史上看，您的大部分支出都花在了技術上。因此，如果您將其削減 50%，它會在什麼時候影響您的競爭能力並影響您降低成本的能力？

So look, historically, the DRAM industry in recent years have been disciplined in terms of CapEx management and supply growth management. Of course, the current environment is unprecedented with respect to the confluence of factors that we discussed that have impacted demand and the unprecedented level of inventory adjustments by our customers as well. We will take the necessary actions to bring our supply in line with demand. We think it is prudent. It is important to be rational in this regard. Of course, as we highlighted that this is a headwind to cost with respect to delaying the technology transitions for our 1-beta and for our 232-layer NAND as well as using underutilization. But this is the right thing to do for the business to bring supply growth in line with demand growth. And this is what will restore the healthy trajectory of demand supply balance.

因此，從歷史上看，近年來 DRAM 行業在資本支出管理和供應增長管理方面一直受到紀律處分。當然，就我們所討論的影響需求的因素以及我們客戶前所未有的庫存調整水平而言，當前環境是前所未有的。我們將採取必要的行動使我們的供應與需求保持一致。我們認為這是謹慎的。在這方面保持理性很重要。當然，正如我們強調的那樣，在延遲我們的 1-beta 和 232 層 NAND 的技術轉換以及使用未充分利用方面，這對成本來說是一個不利因素。但這對企業來說是正確的做法，以使供應增長與需求增長保持一致。這將恢復供需平衡的健康軌跡。

So this is the right thing to do. And I just want to also highlight that we would, of course, maintain our share as well. And that is important. But -- as part of that strategy, we will also continue to shift towards parts of the market, as I highlighted in my prior comments, where the profit pool is greater. So it's -- we will maintain share, but we'll also continue to shift towards strengthened profitability. And I think you have seen that from Micron over the course of last few years, whereas we used to be significantly behind our competitors in margins, today, we are matching the margins if you look at past few quarters. So I think that just shows that we remain disciplined and we remain focused on continuing to shift our portfolio towards greater pools of profitability.

所以這是正確的做法。我只想強調，我們當然也會保持我們的份額。這很重要。但是 - 作為該策略的一部分，我們還將繼續轉向部分市場，正如我在之前的評論中強調的那樣，利潤池更大。所以它 - 我們將保持份額，但我們也將繼續轉向加強盈利能力。而且我認為您在過去幾年中已經從美光那裡看到了這一點，而我們過去在利潤率方面明顯落後於競爭對手，而今天，如果您查看過去幾個季度，我們正在與利潤率相匹配。所以我認為這只是表明我們保持紀律性，我們仍然專注於繼續將我們的投資組合轉向更大的盈利池。

And maybe just to add, Vivek, is I think we made the point that of the remaining spend we have, its focus is on technology. So to your point we appreciate the need to invest in advancing the technology in the business. So the remaining spend we have will be focused on that. And then we still can maintain our position in the market with the inventories that we have that we talked about in the prior question, well over 150 days, as we enter the next quarter. And we'll have that to draw on for some period of time.

也許只是補充一點，Vivek，我認為我們已經指出，我們所擁有的剩餘支出，其重點是技術。因此，就您的觀點而言，我們理解投資推進業務技術的必要性。因此，我們剩餘的支出將集中在這一點上。然後，當我們進入下一季度時，我們仍然可以利用我們在上一個問題中談到的庫存保持我們在市場上的地位，超過 150 天。我們將在一段時間內利用這一點。

And our next question comes from the line of Brian Chin from Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

It's related to the last question, but what's then is your assumption for industry memory WFE decline in calendar '23 that translates into a mid-single-digit increase in DRAM bit supply next year?

這與最後一個問題有關，但是您對 23 年日曆中行業內存 WFE 下降的假設是什麼，這將轉化為明年 DRAM 位供應的中個位數增長？

Look, we have shared with you what we are implementing in terms of WFE decrease, but certainly can't be commenting on parts of others in industry with respect to their WFE actions. But as I pointed out, historically, the industry has been disciplined has been prudent in terms of taking actions to manage supply growth, especially when it gets ahead of the industry demand.

看，我們已經與您分享了我們在減少 WFE 方面正在實施的措施，但當然不能就行業中其他人的 WFE 行動發表評論。但正如我所指出的，從歷史上看，該行業在採取行動管理供應增長方面一直是謹慎的，特別是當它超過行業需求時。

Okay. Yes. I'm just curious what that is, even not knowing what company's plans or what that assumption is because there must be a particular assumption that drives sort of that mid-single-digit supply growth for DRAM bits. Maybe closer to home, maybe just one quick follow-up, you kick start on 1-beta DRAM and 232-layer NAND in the second half of this year. Just curious how long -- how many quarters do you think until those 2 products cross over 50% of bit shipments? And if it's a bit slower than originally planned, how does that compare to a typical time frame to ramp the new technologies?

好的。是的。我只是好奇那是什麼，甚至不知道公司的計劃或假設是什麼，因為必須有一個特定的假設推動 DRAM 位的中個位數供應增長。也許離家更近，也許只是一個快速的跟進，你在今年下半年開始使用 1-beta DRAM 和 232 層 NAND。只是好奇需要多長時間——您認為這兩種產品的出貨量超過 50% 需要多少個季度？如果它比最初計劃的要慢一點，那與加速新技術的典型時間框架相比如何？

So I think it's important to understand that we are delaying the ramp of-232-layer and 1-beta technology versus our prior plans. And most of the CapEx, the $8 billion CapEx that we have talked about, or the WFE CapEx that we are talking about is actually going towards preparing those technologies for engineering, learning and producing the products for new -- in production for customer qualifications.

因此，我認為重要的是要了解，與我們之前的計劃相比，我們正在推遲 232 層和 1-beta 技術的發展。大部分資本支出，我們已經討論過的 80 億美元資本支出，或者我們正在討論的 WFE 資本支出，實際上是在為工程、學習和生產新產品的技術做準備——在生產中獲得客戶資格。

In turn, these technologies will really not be contributing to the revenue shipments through our fiscal year '23 until late in fiscal year '23. They will be the primary drivers of bit growth and revenue growth and, of course, cost reductions in fiscal year '24, because we will be, again, relying on using the inventory to supplement our reduced supply growth to meet the uptick in demand that we expect in fiscal year '23.

反過來，直到 23 財年末，這些技術實際上不會對我們 23 財年的收入出貨量做出貢獻。它們將成為比特增長和收入增長的主要驅動力，當然還有 24 財年的成本降低，因為我們將再次依靠使用庫存來補充我們減少的供應增長，以滿足需求上升我們預計在 23 財年。

And this does conclude the question-and-answer session as well as today's program. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation. You may now disconnect. Good day.

這確實結束了問答環節以及今天的節目。女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。再會。