美光科技 (MU) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Micron's Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2022 Financial Results Conference Call.

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加美光科技2022財年第四季財務業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

As a reminder, today's program may be recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Farhan Ahmad, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

提醒各位，今天的節目可能會被錄製。現在我來介紹今天節目的主持人，投資者關係副總裁法爾漢·艾哈邁德先生。請您開始吧，先生。

Thank you, and welcome to Micron Technology's Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2022 Financial Conference Call. On the call with me today are Sanjay Mehrotra, our President and CEO; and Mark Murphy, our CFO. Today's call is being webcast from our Investor Relations site at investors.micron.com, including audio and slides.

謝謝，歡迎參加美光科技2022財年第四季財務電話會議。今天與我一同出席會議的有我們的總裁兼執行長Sanjay Mehrotra先生和財務長Mark Murphy先生。本次電話會議將透過投資者關係網站investors.micron.com進行網路直播，包括音訊和幻燈片。

In addition, the press release detailing our quarterly results has been posted on the website, along with the prepared remarks for this call. Today's discussion of financial results is presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. A reconciliation of the GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures may be found on our website. We encourage you to visit our website at micron.com throughout the quarter for the most current information on the company, including information on the financial conferences that we may be attending. You can also follow us on Twitter at MicronTech.

此外，我們已在網站上發布了季度業績新聞稿以及本次電話會議的發言稿。除非另有說明，今天對財務表現的討論均以非公認會計準則（非GAAP）為基礎。您可以在我們的網站上找到GAAP與非GAAP財務指標的調節表。我們鼓勵您在本季度訪問micron.com網站，以獲取公司最新信息，包括我們可能參加的金融會議信息。您也可以在Twitter上關注我們：@MicronTech。

As a reminder, the matters we are discussing today include forward-looking statements regarding market demand and supply, our expected results and other matters. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made today.

再次提醒，我們今天討論的事項包含有關市場供需、預期業績及其他事項的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性因素的影響，可能導致實際結果與今天所作陳述有重大差異。

We refer you to the documents we filed with the SEC, including our most recent Form 10-K and 10-Q, for a discussion of the risks that may affect our future results. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, performance or achievements. We are under no duty to update any of the forward-looking statements to conform these statements to actual results.

關於可能影響我們未來業績的風險，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件，包括我們最新的10-K表和10-Q表。儘管我們認為前瞻性陳述中反映的預期是合理的，但我們無法保證未來的績效、活動水準、表現或成就。我們沒有義務更新任何前瞻性陳述以使其與實際結果相符。

I'll now turn the call over to Sanjay.

現在我將把電話交給桑傑。

Thank you, Farhan. Good afternoon, everyone. Micron delivered record annual revenue in fiscal 2022 with solid profitability and free cash flow despite a challenging environment in the latter part of the year. In 2022, we ramped our industry-leading 1-alpha DRAM and 176 layers NAND nodes across our portfolio and returned a record amount of cash to shareholders. We strengthened our product portfolio significantly during the year as evidenced by record revenue in mobile, auto, industrial and networking end markets. Our share gains in client and data center SSDs contributed to record revenue in SSDs and also in our consolidated NAND business.

謝謝 Farhan。大家下午好。儘管下半年市場環境充滿挑戰，美光在 2022 財年仍實現了創紀錄的年度營收，並保持了穩健的盈利能力和自由現金流。 2022 年，我們全面提升了業界領先的 1-alpha DRAM 和 176 層 NAND 工藝節點的產能，並向股東返還了創紀錄的現金。我們顯著增強了產品組合，行動、汽車、工業和網路終端市場的營收均創歷史新高。我們在客戶端和資料中心 SSD 市場佔有率的成長，也為 SSD 和 NAND 業務的合併營收帶來了創紀錄的成長。

We also ramped new product categories like high-bandwidth HBM2E memory and GDDR6X. In addition, a record number of customers recognized Micron as the industry leader in product quality. Our fiscal Q4 financial results were impacted by rapidly weakening consumer demand and significant customer inventory adjustments across all end markets. We are responding decisively to this weak environment by the decreasing supply growth through significant cuts to fiscal 2023 CapEx and by reducing utilization in our fabs. We are confident that the memory industry supply-demand balance will be restored as a result of reduced industry supply growth combined with the long-term demand growth drivers for memory.

我們也大力推進了高頻寬HBM2E記憶體和GDDR6X等新產品類別的研發和生產。此外，創紀錄數量的客戶認可了美光在產品品質方面的行業領先地位。第四財季的財務表現受到消費者需求快速疲軟以及所有終端市場客戶庫存大幅調整的影響。我們正積極應對這個疲軟的市場環境，透過大幅削減2023財年的資本支出和降低晶圓廠的產能利用率來減緩供應成長。我們相信，隨著產業供應成長放緩以及記憶體長期需求成長的推動，記憶體產業的供需平衡終將恢復。

Micron's technology and manufacturing leadership, deep customer relationships, diverse product portfolio and strong balance sheet put us in a solid footing to navigate this industry down cycle and position the company for strong long-term growth. Our industry-leading 1-alpha DRAM and 176-layer NAND nodes drove strong cost reductions in fiscal 2022. In fiscal Q4, we led the industry again in introducing our 232-layer NAND, becoming the first company to enter volume production on a node with more than 200 layers. We also remain on track to begin the ramp of our 1-beta DRAM node in manufacturing by the end of calendar 2022. Both the 1-beta DRAM node and 232-layer NAND node will provide us with robust cost reduction when they ramp in high volume.

美光在技術和製造方面的領先地位、深厚的客戶關係、多元化的產品組合以及穩健的資產負債表，使我們能夠從容應對當前的行業下行週期，並為公司的長期強勁增長奠定基礎。我們業界領先的1-alpha DRAM和176層NAND快閃節點在2022財年實現了顯著的成本降低。在第四財季，我們再次引領業界，推出了232層NAND閃存，成為首家實現200層以上節點量產的公司。我們仍按計畫推進1-beta DRAM節點的量產，預計2022年底前啟動。 1-beta DRAM節點和232層NAND快閃記憶體節點在量產後都將為我們帶來顯著的成本降低。

Artificial intelligence, cloud computing, electric vehicles and the ubiquitous connectivity offered by 5G and our strong long-term demand drivers for memory and storage. As we have discussed previously, to support memory demand in the second half of the decade and beyond, we will need to add new DRAM wafer capacity. The recently passed CHIPS and Science Act will help to reduce the memory manufacturing cost disparities that exist between the U.S. and Asia. Following passage of the CHIPS Act, Micron announced our intent to invest $40 billion through the end of the decade in leading-edge memory manufacturing in the U.S., contingent on CHIPS Act support. These investments will ultimately create tens of thousands of American jobs, strengthen U.S. supply chain resiliency and further diversify our global fab footprint.

人工智慧、雲端運算、電動車以及5G帶來的無所不在的連接，都是推動記憶體和儲存設備長期強勁需求的因素。正如我們之前討論過的，為了滿足未來十年後半段及以後的記憶體需求，我們需要增加DRAM晶圓產能。近期通過的《晶片與科學法案》（CHIPS Act）將有助於縮小美國與亞洲之間記憶體製造成本的差距。在《晶片與科學法案》通過後，美光宣布計劃在本世紀末之前投資400億美元，用於在美國進行尖端內存製造，但前提是《晶片與科學法案》能夠提供支援。這些投資最終將創造數萬個美國就業機會，增強美國供應鏈的韌性，並進一步拓展我們的全球晶圓廠佈局。

Earlier this month, we announced that we have chosen Boise as 1 of 2 leading-edge DRAM manufacturing fab sites that we are planning in the U.S. and we expect to invest approximately $15 billion at this site through the end of the decade. The co-location of this new manufacturing facility with our existing R&D site at our headquarters in Boise, provides multiple strategic benefits, including improving efficiency across both R&D and manufacturing, simplifying technology transfer and reducing time to market for leading-edge products.

本月初，我們宣布已選定博伊西為我們在美國規劃建造的兩座尖端DRAM製造廠之一，預計到本十年末，我們將在該廠投資約150億美元。這座新製造廠與我們位於博伊西總部現有的研發中心毗鄰而建，將帶來多項戰略優勢，包括提高研發和製造效率、簡化技術轉移以及縮短尖端產品的上市時間。

We will soon announce a second high-volume U.S. DRAM manufacturing site. These new fabs will fulfill our requirements for additional wafer capacity starting in the second half of the decade and beyond. We plan to build these sites in stages. Tool installation and production output will be ramped in line with industry demand growth, which is consistent with our goal to maintain stable bit supply share as well as supply discipline.

我們很快就會宣佈在美國建造第二個高產能DRAM製造基地。這些新晶圓廠將滿足我們自本世紀下半葉及以後對額外晶圓產能的需求。我們計劃分階段建造這些基地。設備安裝和產量將根據產業需求成長逐步提升，這符合我們維持穩定的比特供應份額和供應鏈紀律的目標。

Now turning to our end markets. Micron's product portfolio has become significantly stronger and contributed to our momentum in the most attractive markets. In fiscal 2022, data center and graphics revenue grew approximately 35%, and auto, industrial and networking revenue grew approximately 40%. The combined revenue mix of these important markets grew from approximately 45% of our total revenue in fiscal 2021 to 52% in fiscal 2022, putting us on track to hit our target of 62% by fiscal 2025, as outlined at our Investor Day earlier this year.

現在我們來看看終端市場。美光的產品組合顯著增強，並幫助我們在最具吸引力的市場中保持成長勢頭。 2022財年，資料中心和圖形業務收入成長約35%，汽車、工業和網路業務收入成長約40%。這些重要市場的收入佔比從2021財年的約45%增長到2022財年的52%，使我們有望實現今年早些時候投資者日上提出的到2025財年達到62%的目標。

This portfolio transformation will increase our exposure to the most attractive and stable profit pools in the industry. In fiscal Q4, data center revenue was down both sequentially and year-over-year, driven primarily by declines in ASP. In fiscal 2022, we set a new revenue record for our cloud revenues, which grew more than 30% year-over-year. Cloud end demand remains healthy, driven by secular growth in AI and the digital economy. However, the data center market, including both cloud and enterprise, continues to face some supply constraints that are limiting server bills. And customers are reducing memory and storage inventory due to macroeconomic uncertainties.

此次投資組合調整將提升我們在業界最具吸引力和最穩定的獲利板塊的比例。第四財季，資料中心營收季減和年比均有所下降，主要受平均售價（ASP）下滑的影響。 2022財年，我們的雲端業務營收創下新紀錄，年增超過30%。受人工智慧和數位經濟長期成長的推動，雲端需求依然強勁。然而，包括雲端和企業級資料中心在內的整個市場仍面臨一些供應限制，導致伺服器支出受到抑制。此外，由於宏觀經濟的不確定性，客戶正在減少記憶體和儲存庫存。

With a diverse set of products across DDR4, DDR5, graphics memory, high-bandwidth memory and data center SSDs, Micron offers a wide portfolio of solutions targeting this market with industry-leading quality. Building on our recent momentum of market share gains in data center SSDs in the first half of calendar 2022, we continue to make solid progress in ongoing qualifications of our 176-layer NVMe data center SSDs at hyperscalers and OEMs around the world.

憑藉涵蓋DDR4、DDR5、圖形記憶體、高頻寬記憶體和資料中心固態硬碟等多元化的產品組合，美光科技為市場提供業界領先的高品質解決方案。繼2022年上半年資料中心固態硬碟市佔率持續成長之後，我們正穩步推進176層NVMe資料中心固態硬碟在全球超大規模資料中心和OEM廠商的認證工作。

Fiscal Q4 client revenue was down both sequentially and year-over-year as PC unit end demand declined and customers reduced inventory. We now forecast calendar 2022 PC unit sales to decline by an approximately mid-teens percentage year-over-year. In fiscal Q4, we began ramping 16 gigabit DDR5 in high-volume production ahead of anticipated client platform launches. We also commenced volume production of Gen 4 QLC NVMe client SSDs, and are the only company with a full portfolio of 176-layer TLC and Gen 4 QLC NVMe SSDs qualified and shipping to PC OEMs. In fiscal Q4, graphics revenue declined both sequentially and year-over-year. Micron continues to hold an excellent position as the performance leader in the graphics market. In fiscal Q4, we began shipping the industry's fastest graphics memory with 24 gigabits per second GDDR6X shipping in high-volume production. We are excited to see our proprietary GDDR6X memory featured in the recent launch of NVIDIA's GeForce RTX 4090 and 4080 GPUs.

由於PC終端需求下降以及客戶減少庫存，第四財季客戶業務收入環比和年比均有所下降。我們目前預測2022年PC銷量將年減約15%左右。第四財季，我們已開始大規模量產16Gbps DDR5內存，以迎接預期中的客戶端平台發布。此外，我們也開始量產第四代QLC NVMe客戶端固態硬碟，並且是唯一擁有全系列176層TLC和第四代QLC NVMe固態硬碟產品組合，且已通過認證並向PC OEM廠商出貨的公司。第四財季，圖形業務收入較上季和年比均有所下降。美光在圖形市場依然保持著卓越的性能領先地位。第四財季，我們開始大規模量產業界速度最快的24Gbps GDDR6X顯存。我們很高興看到我們自主研發的 GDDR6X 記憶體被應用於 NVIDIA 最近發布的 GeForce RTX 4090 和 4080 GPU 中。

Fiscal Q4 mobile revenue declined both sequentially and year-over-year. Despite the weakness in end unit sales, we achieved 2 consecutive years of record mobile revenue in fiscal 2021 and 2022. We now project calendar 2022 smartphone unit volume to decline by a high single-digit percentage year-over-year. 5G continues to drive digital content per device and we project 5G penetration to exceed 50% of the smartphone unit TAM in calendar 2022. We continue to execute well on our mobile product road map. In fiscal Q4, 1-alpha comprised over 70% of our LPDRAM mobile bit shipment and 176-layer made up approximately 95% of our mobile NAND bit shipments.

第四財季行動業務收入較上月及年比均有所下降。儘管終端銷量疲軟，但我們在2021財年和2022財年連續兩年實現了創紀錄的行動業務收入。我們目前預計2022年智慧型手機出貨量將年減近10%。 5G持續推動單機數位內容成長，我們預期2022年5G滲透率將超過智慧型手機市場規模的50%。我們的移動產品路線圖執行情況良好。第四財季，1-alpha層LPDRAM占我們行動端LPDRAM出貨量的70%以上，176層NAND快閃記憶體占我們行動端NAND出貨量的約95%。

Micron is exceptionally well-positioned as the leader in automotive and industrial markets, which are attractive because of strong long-term growth and relatively stable margins. In fiscal Q4, our automotive business delivered another record revenue quarter, and fiscal 2022 auto revenues grew 30% year over year, setting a new all-time high. In fiscal Q1, we see some slowdown in our automotive demand as our customers rebalance DRAM and NAND inventory levels as they deal with nonmemory semiconductor shortages and production challenges. However, we see continued strong growth in our second half of fiscal 2023 with volume ramp of advanced next-generation in-vehicle infotainment systems as well as the broader adoption of more advanced driver-assistance systems. We are extremely excited by the long-term prospects for memory and storage in the automotive market and expect long-term CAGR for DRAM and NAND in autos to be at about twice the rate of the overall DRAM and NAND markets.

美光在汽車和工業市場佔據領先地位，憑藉強勁的長期成長和相對穩定的利潤率，這兩個市場極具吸引力。在第四財季，我們的汽車業務再次創下營收新高，2022財年汽車業務營收年增30%，創歷史新高。在第一財季，由於客戶需要調整DRAM和NAND庫存水準以應對非儲存半導體短缺和生產挑戰，我們看到汽車需求有所放緩。然而，隨著先進的下一代車載資訊娛樂系統量產以及更先進的駕駛輔助系統的廣泛應用，我們預計2023財年下半年將持續保持強勁成長。我們對汽車市場記憶體和儲存的長期前景充滿信心，並預期汽車領域DRAM和NAND的長期複合年增長率將約為DRAM和NAND整體市場成長率的兩倍。

While long-term fundamentals remain strong, our industrial IoT business saw sequential and year-over-year revenue declines in fiscal Q4. Softening macroeconomic conditions have led some customers to reduce overall purchases of DRAM and NAND. Nevertheless, our long-term outlook remains strong for our industrial business driven by the proliferation of factory automation and digitization.

儘管長期基本面依然強勁，但我們的工業物聯網業務在第四財季的營收季比和年比均出現下滑。宏觀經濟環境疲軟導致部分顧客減少了DRAM和NAND快閃記憶體的整體採購量。然而，在工廠自動化和數位普及的推動下，我們工業業務的長期前景依然樂觀。

Turning to the market outlook. The memory and storage industry environment has deteriorated sharply since our last earnings call. Calendar 2022, industry bit demand growth for DRAM is now expected to be in the low to mid-single-digit percentage range; and for NAND, slightly higher than 10%. An unprecedented confluence of events has affected overall demand, including COVID-related lockdowns in China, the Ukraine war, the inflationary environment impacting consumer spending and the macroeconomic environment, influencing customers' buying behavior in multiple segments. In addition, inventory adjustment at customers across all end markets are also contributing to demand weakness. These factors are depressing demand for DRAM and NAND to well below end market consumption levels. We are also seeing an extremely aggressive pricing environment. Due to the sharp decline in near-term demand, we expect supply growth to be significantly above demand growth in calendar 2022, contributing to very high supply inventories for both DRAM and NAND.

展望市場前景。自上次財報電話會議以來，記憶體和儲存產業的環境急劇惡化。預計2022年DRAM的行業位需求成長率將處於個位數百分比的低至中等水平；NAND的需求成長率略高於10%。一系列前所未有的事件共同影響了整體需求，包括中國與新冠疫情相關的封鎖措施、烏克蘭戰爭、通膨環境對消費者支出的影響以及宏觀經濟環境，這些因素共同作用，影響了多個細分市場客戶的購買行為。此外，所有終端市場客戶的庫存調整也加劇了需求疲軟。這些因素導致DRAM和NAND的需求遠低於終端市場消費水準。我們也看到市場定價環境異常激烈。由於近期需求急劇下降，我們預計2022年DRAM的供應成長將遠高於需求成長，這將導致DRAM和NAND的庫存水準非常高。

Looking ahead, in calendar 2023, while macroeconomic uncertainty is high and visibility is low, we currently expect demand growth to be closer to the long-term growth rates of both DRAM and NAND, bouncing back from very weak levels in calendar 2022. We expect the inventory at our customers to improve in early calendar 2023, causing demand to rebound starting from the second quarter of calendar 2023. We expect calendar 2023 industry DRAM supply to grow well below demand growth. We are modeling a mid-single-digit percentage growth in DRAM industry supply in 2023, which would represent the lowest ever industry supply growth. NAND supply growth in calendar 2023 is also expected to fall below demand growth.

展望2023年，儘管宏觀經濟不確定性高、前景不明朗，但我們目前預計DRAM和NAND的需求成長將更接近其長期成長率，並從2022年的低迷水準中反彈。我們預計客戶的庫存將在2023年初有所改善，從而推動需求從2023年第二季開始回升。我們預計2023年DRAM產業供應成長將遠低於需求成長。我們預測2023年DRAM產業供應成長率將為個位數百分比，這將是產業供應成長史上最低的水準。預計2023年NAND供應成長也將低於需求成長。

Given the elevated supplier inventories entering calendar 2023, we expect industry profitability to remain challenging in 2023. Following a weak first half of fiscal 2023, we expect strong revenue growth in the second half of fiscal 2023 as bit demands rebounds following substantial improvement in customer inventories. Projections for long-term demand trends remain strong across multiple end markets. We expect long-term demand bit growth to be in the mid-teens percentage, slightly lower than our prior expectation of mid- to high teens due to a moderation in the expectation of long-term PC unit sales. We continue to expect the NAND market, which benefits from elasticity, to grow around 28% over the long term.

鑑於供應商庫存水準在2023年仍處於較高水平，我們預計2023年產業獲利能力仍將面臨挑戰。在經歷了2023財年上半年的疲軟表現後，我們預計隨著客戶庫存大幅改善，比特需求反彈，下半年營收將強勁成長。我們對多個終端市場的長期需求趨勢預測仍然強勁。我們預期長期比特需求成長率將達到15%左右，略低於先前預期的15%至10%左右，原因是我們對長期PC銷售的預期有所下調。我們仍預計，受惠於需求彈性的NAND市場長期成長率將達到28%左右。

Turning to our supply. Given the change in market conditions, we have been taking immediate action to reduce our supply growth trajectory and align it to market demand.

接下來談談我們的供應情況。鑑於市場環境的變化，我們已立即採取行動，降低供應成長速度，使其與市場需求保持一致。

We made significant reductions to CapEx and now expect fiscal 2023 CapEx to be around $8 billion, down more than 30% year-over-year. CapEx would be lower if it were not for more than doubling our construction CapEx year-over-year to support the supply growth required to meet demand for the second half of this decade as well as investments for EUV lithography systems to support 1-gamma node development. WFE CapEx will decline nearly 50% year-over-year, and reflects a much slower ramp of our 1-beta DRAM and 232-layer NAND versus prior expectations. Fiscal 2023, WFE CapEx is focused on developing the technology capability of our leading nodes and new product introductions.

我們大幅削減了資本支出，目前預計2023財年的資本支出約為80億美元，年減超過30%。如果不是為了支持本十年後半期所需的供應增長以及為支持1-gamma節點開發而對EUV光刻系統進行投資，我們將建設性資本支出同比增長超過一倍，那麼資本支出還會更低。 WFE（晶圓廠設備）資本支出將較去年同期下降近50%，反映出我們的1-beta DRAM和232層NAND的產能爬坡速度遠低於預期。 2023財年，WFE資本支出將重點放在提升我們領先節點的技術能力以及新產品的推出。

To immediately address our inventory situation and reduced supply growth, we are reducing utilization in select areas in both DRAM and NAND. Our CapEx and utilization actions will have an adverse impact on our fiscal 2023 costs but they are necessary to bring our supply and inventory closer to industry demand. We will aim to grow our DRAM and NAND supply in line with demand over time while continuing to optimize our cost and portfolio to improve our profitability.

為了立即應對庫存緊張和供應成長放緩的問題，我們正在降低DRAM和NAND部分產品的產能利用率。我們的資本支出和產能利用率調整措施將對2023財年的成本產生不利影響，但這些措施對於使我們的供應和庫存更貼近產業需求至關重要。我們將致力於逐步提高DRAM和NAND的供應量，使其與市場需求保持一致，同時持續優化成本和產品組合，以提高獲利能力。

Before passing it over to Mark, I want to reflect on the tremendous progress that the Micron team has made over the last few years. Today, we are a technology leader in both DRAM and NAND with a very competitive cost structure. We have leadership products and a strong portfolio that is transitioning towards high-value solutions. And we are gaining share in products that represent a more attractive profit pool in our industry. Our balance sheet is strong and allows us to invest appropriately to maintain technology, product and manufacturing leadership going forward. Our world-class quality and manufacturing expertise is recognized by our customers worldwide. We have delivered record revenues in multiple end markets in fiscal 2022 and while returning record levels of cash to our shareholders.

在將發言權交給馬克之前，我想回顧一下美光團隊在過去幾年取得的巨大進步。如今，我們在DRAM和NAND領域均處於技術領先地位，並擁有極具競爭力的成本結構。我們擁有領先的產品和強大的產品組合，並正向高價值解決方案轉型。同時，我們在利潤空間較大的產品領域也取得了市場佔有率的成長。我們穩健的資產負債表使我們能夠進行適當的投資，從而在未來繼續保持技術、產品和製造方面的領先地位。我們世界一流的品質和製造技術得到了全球客戶的認可。在2022財年，我們在多個終端市場實現了創紀錄的收入，同時向股東返還了創紀錄的現金。

While the near-term environment is challenging, we are confident in our ability to emerge stronger and deliver financial performance in line with our long-term financial model. The long-term manufacturing investments we are making will further strengthen our diversified fab footprint and position us to capitalize on the exciting long-term opportunities ahead of us.

儘管短期環境充滿挑戰，但我們有信心克服困難，實現更強勁的業績成長，並達到符合我們長期財務模型的目標。我們正在進行的長期製造投資將進一步鞏固我們多元化的晶圓廠佈局，並使我們能夠掌握未來令人振奮的長期機會。

I will now turn it over to Mark.

現在我將把任務交給馬克。

Thanks, Sanjay. Our fiscal Q4 revenues stand consistent with our August 9 update, while EPS was within the original guidance range. Fiscal Q4 capped off a strong fiscal year in which we set a record for total revenue, generated substantial free cash flow and returned $2.9 billion to shareholders. Total fiscal Q4 revenue was $6.6 billion, down 23% sequentially and down 20% year-over-year. Fiscal 2022 total revenue was a record at $30.8 billion, up 11% year-over-year. Fiscal Q4 DRAM revenue was $4.8 billion, representing 72% of total revenue. DRAM revenue declined 23% sequentially and was down 21% year-over-year. Sequentially, bit shipments decreased by roughly 10%, while ASPs declined in the low teens percent range.

謝謝Sanjay。我們第四財季的營收與8月9日的更新一致，每股盈餘也符合先前的預期範圍。第四財季為強勁的財年畫上了圓滿的句號，我們創下了總營收紀錄，產生了可觀的自由現金流，並向股東返還了29億美元。第四財季總營收為66億美元，季減23%，年減20%。 2022財年總營收達到創紀錄的308億美元，年增11%。第四財季DRAM營收為48億美元，佔總營收的72%。 DRAM營收季減23%，較去年同期下降21%。環比來看，晶片出貨量下降了約10%，而平均售價下降了10%左右。

For the fiscal year, DRAM revenue increased 12% year-over-year to $22.4 billion, representing 73% of total fiscal year revenue. Fiscal Q4 NAND revenue was $1.7 billion, representing 25% of Micron's total revenue. NAND revenue declined 26% sequentially and was down 14% year-over-year. Sequential bit shipments declined in the low 20s percentage range and ASPs declined in the mid- to high single-digit percentage range. For the fiscal year, NAND revenue increased 11% year-over-year to a record $7.8 billion, representing 25% of total fiscal year revenue.

本財年，DRAM 營收年增 12% 至 224 億美元，佔全年總營收的 73%。第四財季 NAND 營收為 17 億美元，佔美光總營收的 25%。 NAND 營收季減 26%，年減 14%。順序比特出貨量下降了 20% 左右，平均售價下降了個位數百分比。本財年，NAND 營收年增 11% 至創紀錄的 78 億美元，佔全年總營收的 25%。

Turning to our fiscal Q4 revenue trends by business unit. Revenue for the Compute and Networking Business Unit was $2.9 billion, down 25% sequentially and down 23% year-over-year. The sequential decline was primarily driven by client, while declines in server and graphics were less pronounced. Networking revenue hit a new record in fiscal 2022. Revenue for the Mobile Business Unit was approximately $1.5 billion, down 23% sequentially and down 20% year-over-year. Mobile revenue for fiscal 2022 set a new record. Revenue for the Storage Business Unit was $891 million, down 34% sequentially and down 26% year-over-year.

接下來我們來看看各業務部門的第四財季營收趨勢。計算與網路業務部門營收為29億美元，季減25%，年減23%。環比下降主要受客戶端業務影響，伺服器和圖形業務的降幅較小。網路業務營收在2022財年創下新紀錄。行動業務部門營收約15億美元，季減23%，年減20%。行動業務營收在2022財年創下新紀錄。儲存業務部門營收為8.91億美元，季減34%，年減26%。

For the fiscal year, NAND revenue in the Storage Business Unit was its highest ever with share gains in both client and data center SSDs. Finally, revenue for the Embedded Business Unit was $1.3 billion, down 9% sequentially and down 4% year-over-year.

本財年，儲存業務部門的NAND快閃營收創歷史新高，在客戶端和資料中心固態硬碟（SSD）市場均實現了份額成長。嵌入式業務部門的營收為13億美元，季減9%，年減4%。

For fiscal 2022, EBU delivered $5.2 billion of revenue supported by revenue records in automotive and industrial markets. The consolidated gross margin for fiscal Q4 was 40.3%, down approximately 7 percentage points sequentially. Lower pricing was the primary driver of the decline. For the fiscal year, the consolidated gross margin was 45.9%, up approximately 6 percentage points year-over-year.

2022財年，EBU實現營收52億美元，主要得益於汽車和工業市場創紀錄的營收。第四季綜合毛利率為40.3%，季減約7個百分點，主要原因是價格調降。全年綜合毛利率為45.9%，較去年成長約6個百分點。

Operating expenses in fiscal Q4 were just over $1 billion and below the guidance range provided on our last earnings call, due in part to lower variable compensation in the quarter. Sequentially, OpEx was up around $60 million, due primarily to the timing of technology development spend. For the fiscal year, operating expenses were $3.8 billion, up approximately $500 million year-over-year driven by R&D to support our product and technology road maps.

第四財季的營運支出略高於10億美元，低於我們在上次財報電話會議上給出的預期範圍，部分原因是本季浮動薪資下降。環比來看，營運支出增加了約6,000萬美元，主要原因是技術研發支出的時間安排。本財年全年營運支出為38億美元，年增約5億美元，主要原因是研發投入增加，以支援我們的產品和技術路線圖。

Fiscal Q4 operating income was $1.7 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 25%, down approximately 11 percentage points sequentially and down 12 points from the prior year. Fiscal 2022 operating income was $10.3 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 33.4%, up approximately 6 percentage points from the prior year. Fiscal Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $3.6 billion, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 53.5%, down 390 basis points sequentially. For the fiscal year, adjusted EBITDA was $17.4 billion, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 56.7%. Fiscal Q4 taxes were $74 million or over 4% of pretax income. For fiscal 2022, total taxes were $793 million or approximately 8% of pretax income. Non-GAAP earnings per share in fiscal Q4 was $1.45, down from $2.59 in fiscal Q3 and $2.42 in the year ago quarter. Non-GAAP EPS was $8.35 for the fiscal year, up from $6.06 in the prior year.

第四財季營業收入為17億美元，營業利益率為25%，較上季下降約11個百分點，較去年同期下降12個百分點。 2022財年營業收入為103億美元，營業利益率為33.4%，較上年同期成長約6個百分點。第四財季調整後EBITDA為36億美元，EBITDA利潤率為53.5%，季減390個基點。 2022財年全年調整後EBITDA為174億美元，EBITDA利潤率為56.7%。第四財季稅項支出為7,400萬美元，佔稅前利潤的4%以上。 2022財年全年稅項支出為7.93億美元，約佔稅前利潤的8%。第四財季非GAAP每股收益為1.45美元，低於第三財季的2.59美元及去年同期的2.42美元。本會計年度非GAAP每股收益為8.35美元，高於上年度的6.06美元。

Turning to cash flows capital spending. We generated $3.8 billion in cash from operations in fiscal Q4, representing 57% of revenue. For the fiscal year, we generated $15.2 billion of cash from operations, representing 49% of revenue. Capital expenditures were $3.6 billion during the quarter and $12 billion for the fiscal year. We generated $196 million of free cash flow in fiscal Q4 and $3.2 billion for the fiscal year.

接下來談談現金流和資本支出。第四財季，我們的經營活動現金流為38億美元，佔總營收的57%。本財年，我們的經營活動現金流為152億美元，佔總營收的49%。本季資本支出為36億美元，本財年資本支出為120億美元。第四財季，我們的自由現金流為1.96億美元，本財年自由現金流為32億美元。

Fiscal year 2022 was the sixth consecutive year of positive free cash flow for Micron. During the quarter, we completed share repurchases of $784 million or 13.2 million shares. For the fiscal year, we completed share repurchases of $2.4 billion, representing 35.4 million shares. Including our dividend payments, we returned $2.9 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2022, representing 90% of free cash flow. We remain committed to returning 100% of free cash flow across the cycle through a combination of share repurchases and dividends.

2022財年是美光科技連續第六年實現正自由現金流。本季度，我們完成了7.84億美元的股票回購，相當於1,320萬股。整個財年，我們共完成了24億美元的股票回購，相當於3,540萬股。計入股利支付，我們在2022財年向股東返還了29億美元，佔自由現金流的90%。我們將繼續致力於在整個經濟週期內，透過股票回購和股利支付相結合的方式，實現100%的自由現金流返還。

Our ending fiscal Q4 inventory was $6.7 billion, and average days of inventory for the quarter was 139 days, reflecting weaker market conditions during the quarter. Our balance sheet is rock solid with strong liquidity, low leverage ratio and a net cash position. We ended fiscal 2022 with $13.6 billion of liquidity, exceeding our mid-30s percentage of revenue target. Fiscal Q4 ending cash and investments were $11.1 billion and total debt was $6.9 million.

截至2022財年第四季末，我們的庫存為67億美元，平均庫存週轉天數為139天，反映出該季度市場環境疲軟。我們的資產負債表穩健，流動性充裕，槓桿率低，且擁有淨現金部位。 2022財年末，我們的流動資金為136億美元，超過了我們設定的30%左右的收入目標。截至2022財年第四季末，我們的現金及投資總額為111億美元，總負債為690萬美元。

Now turning to our outlook for the fiscal first quarter. As a result of the demand challenges described by Sanjay earlier, we expect fiscal Q1 bit shipments and pricing to decline in both DRAM and NAND. We expect that inflationary pressure will continue to be a headwind to costs in Q1 in fiscal 2023. We remain disciplined in our expense management and have taken specific actions with more planned. As we look ahead, macroeconomic uncertainty is high and visibility is low. In fiscal Q2, we currently expect revenue to be in a similar range as fiscal Q1 with bit shipments up but still weak for both DRAM and NAND. We also expect a recovery in volumes and revenues in the second half of the fiscal year. We expect our inventory to increase in the fiscal first half of 2023 and days of inventory to improve as demand recovers in the second half of the fiscal year.

現在我們來談談第一財季的展望。正如Sanjay先前提到的，由於需求方面的挑戰，我們預期第一財季DRAM和NAND的比特出貨量和價格都會下降。我們預期通膨壓力將繼續對2023財年第一季的成本構成不利影響。我們將繼續嚴格控制支出，並已採取具體措施，未來將有更多措施出爐。展望未來，宏觀經濟的不確定性很高，前景不明朗。我們目前預計第二財季的營收將與第一財季持平，DRAM和NAND的比特出貨量將有所成長，但仍疲軟。我們也預計下半年銷售和收入將有所回升。我們預計2023財年上半年庫存將會增加，隨著下半年需求的復甦，庫存週轉天數將會改善。

As Sanjay mentioned, we expect our fiscal 2023 capital spending to be around $8 billion, down more than 30% year-over-year, driven by a near 50% decline in wafer fab equipment CapEx. We expect capital spending to be weighted toward the first half of the fiscal year. And as a result, we project to be over $1.5 billion negative free cash flow in the November quarter. We continue to evaluate ways to improve free cash flow, including reducing CapEx, lowering expenses and managing working capital as we respond to market conditions.

正如Sanjay所提到的，我們預計2023財年的資本支出約為80億美元，年減超過30%，主要原因是晶圓製造設備資本支出下降近50%。我們預計資本支出將集中在上半年。因此，我們預計11月季度的自由現金流將為負15億美元以上。我們將繼續評估改善自由現金流的途徑，包括根據市場狀況減少資本支出、降低費用和管理營運資本。

In fiscal 2023, we expect our tax rate to be elevated. Unless Congress repeals or delays recent changes to R&D deductibility, recent legislation requires that for tax purposes, we capitalize and amortize R&D expense this fiscal year. In addition, based on our income mix and U.S. and foreign tax rules, our taxes become more fixed at these lower profitability levels. These factors result in an estimated tax of approximately $300 million at a minimum. Beyond this level, the actual tax expense will depend on the level of operating income through the year.

2023財年，我們預計稅率將會提高。除非國會廢除或推遲近期研發費用抵扣政策的變更，否則根據最新立法，出於稅務目的，我們本財年必須將研發費用資本化並進行攤銷。此外，基於我們的收入結構以及美國和外國的稅務法規，在獲利能力較低的情況下，我們的稅負將更加固定。這些因素導致我們預計至少需要繳納約3億美元的稅金。超過這筆金額後，實際稅負將取決於全年的營業收入水準。

So in this lower pretax profitability, fiscal year 2023, we expect a materially higher tax rate. Long term, as our profitability normalizes, we expect our tax rate to be in the low to mid-teens percentage range. With all these factors in mind, our non-GAAP guidance for the fiscal Q1 is as follows. We expect revenue to be $4.25 billion, plus or minus $250 million; gross margin to be in the range of 26%, plus or minus 200 basis points; and operating expenses to be $1 billion, plus or minus $25 million. Based on a share count of approximately 1.12 billion fully diluted shares, we expect EPS to be $0.04, plus or minus $0.10.

因此，在2023財年稅前利潤較低的情況下，我們預計稅率將大幅上升。從長遠來看，隨著利潤恢復正常，我們預計稅率將維持在10%左右。考慮到所有這些因素，我們對2023財年第一季的非GAAP業績指引如下：預計營收為42.5億美元，上下浮動2.5億美元；毛利率為26%，上下浮動200個基點；營運費用為10億美元，上下浮動2,500萬美元。基於約11.2億股完全稀釋後的股份數量，我們預計每股收益為0.04美元，上下浮動0.10美元。

In closing, we had many meaningful accomplishments in fiscal 2022, including delivering record revenue, achieving clear technology leadership in both DRAM and NAND, increasing share in client and data center SSDs, further strengthening our balance sheet and returning a record amount of capital to our shareholders. While the near-term environment is challenging, the Micron of today is extremely well prepared to navigate it with our competitive cost structure, strong product portfolio and rock-solid balance sheet. Beyond fiscal 2023, a year starting out with a challenging set of external events, we are confident in our ability to deliver financial performance consistent with our long-term cross-cycle financial model, including revenue growth of high single digits, operating margins of 30% and free cash flow margin of over 10%.

綜上所述，我們在2022財年取得了許多意義深遠的成就，包括創紀錄的營收、在DRAM和NAND領域均確立了明顯的技術領先地位、提升了客戶端和數據中心固態硬碟（SSD）的市場份額、進一步鞏固了資產負債表，並向股東返還了創紀錄的資本。儘管短期環境充滿挑戰，但憑藉著極具競爭力的成本結構、強大的產品組合和穩健的資產負債表，如今的Micron已做好充分準備應對挑戰。展望2023財年，儘管開局面臨許多外部挑戰，但我們有信心實現與長期跨週期財務模型相符的財務業績，包括高個位數的營收成長、30%的營業利潤率和超過10%的自由現金流利潤率。

I will now turn it back to Sanjay.

現在我把它交還給桑傑。

Thank you, Mark. The current macroeconomic environment presents an unprecedented challenge for the industry. Our rapid actions to both moderate utilization and sharply reduce CapEx illustrate our commitment to supply discipline and our focus on bringing our supply and demand back into balance. The Micron team continues to execute with agility to changing business conditions. We remain committed to our strategy of maintaining stable bit share and growing profitability with a portfolio of higher value solutions. And we are confident in the long-term technology drivers for memory. New data-centric applications and technology will drive long-term memory demand on the trajectory that outpaces growth in other semiconductor categories. Our strategic investments underscore this confidence and will ensure Micron is able to capitalize on these long-term trends in the decade ahead.

謝謝馬克。當前的宏觀經濟環境為整個產業帶來了前所未有的挑戰。我們迅速採取行動，降低產能利用率並大幅削減資本支出，這反映了我們對供應鏈紀律的承諾，以及我們致力於恢復供需平衡的決心。美光團隊將繼續靈活應對不斷變化的商業環境。我們始終堅持既定策略，即透過一系列高價值解決方案，維持穩定的市場佔有率並提升獲利能力。我們對記憶體的長期技術驅動因素充滿信心。以數據為中心的新應用和技術將推動記憶體的長期需求成長，其成長將超過其他半導體領域。我們的策略投資印證了這一信心，並將確保美光在未來十年能夠充分利用這些長期趨勢。

Thanks for joining us today. We will now open for questions.

感謝各位今天的參與。現在開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

The first question comes from the line of C.J. Muse from Evercore ISI.

第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse 的一條線。

I guess first question, can you provide a little bit more detail around the magnitude of utilization cuts and how we should be thinking about any other utilization challenges to gross margins in November and February quarters?

我想問的第一個問題是，您能否更詳細說明一下產能利用率削減的幅度，以及我們應該如何看待 11 月和 2 月季度毛利率可能面臨的其他產能利用率挑戰？

So I think I can answer the first part, and then Mark can take on the second part on the margins. So with respect to the utilization cuts, they are across NAND and DRAM, and approximately in the mid-single-digit range. And of course, these cuts are for the products that have been in high inventory.

所以我想我可以回答第一部分，然後馬克可以回答第二部分，也就是一些細節問題。關於產能利用率的削減，NAND 和 DRAM 都受到了影響，削減幅度大約在個位數的中等水平。當然，這些削減針對的是庫存量較高的產品。

And so we are cutting production of those products and using the equipment that is freed up and the space that is freed up to deploy it toward the new technology transitions. So that actually helps us with CapEx efficiency.

因此，我們正在削減這些產品的產量，並將騰出的設備和空間用於新技術轉型。這實際上有助於我們提高資本支出效率。

And Mark can comment on the gross margin impact.

馬克可以就毛利率的影響發表評論。

Yes. C.J., as you mentioned, it's really going to hit us not in the first quarter, but later in the year, and it would be between 1 and 2 points of impact at this point. And of course, depending on market conditions, we would either dial that back or bring utilization lower.

是的，C.J.，正如你所說，這不會在第一季就對我們造成影響，而是在今年晚些時候，目前來看影響幅度在1到2個百分點之間。當然，我們會根據市場狀況調整措施，要麼減少投入，要麼降低產能利用率。

Very helpful. And as a quick follow-up, considering your strong net cash position, but your guidance for free cash to be free cash flow negative. What's your near-term philosophy around buybacks?

非常有幫助。另外，鑑於您目前強勁的淨現金狀況，但您預期自由現金流為負，請問您近期在股票回購方面有何策略？

Well, I think I'll state really no change around -- we're going to continue to focus on returning 100% of free cash flow to shareholders. We did repurchase in the first quarter. And so we will opportunistically repurchase. As you point out, C.J., we are cash flow challenged in the first quarter. It's been an unprecedented downturn, sharp and sudden. And it has, of course, associated inventory builds. It's suppressed our income, of course. And then we've got elevated CapEx as it happened so quickly. So we expect $1.5 billion negative in the first. We'll be challenged in the second as well as we deal with elevated inventory levels and then the revenues that we guided or the bit shipments we talked about.

嗯，我想我的表態基本上不會改變——我們將繼續專注於將100%的自由現金流回饋給股東。我們在第一季進行了股票回購，所以我們會擇機回購。正如您所指出的，C.J.，我們在第一季面臨現金流挑戰。這是一次前所未有的、急劇且突然的下滑。當然，這也導致了庫存增加，並抑制了我們的收入。此外，由於這一切發生得太快，我們的資本支出也大幅增加。因此，我們預計第一季將出現15億美元的負現金流。第二季我們也會面臨挑戰，因為我們需要應對高企的庫存水平，以及我們先前預測的收入或我們之前提到的出貨量。

And then the CapEx will take time to work down. We expect it to be weighted in the first half more heavily. We do expect with the volume recovery in the back half of the year and lower CapEx and inventories coming down. We do expect to return to free cash flow generation in the second half. And of course, we're working -- continue to work CapEx, continue to work expenses down, working our -- managing our working capital best we can, to improve from this first quarter projection we have.

然後，資本支出需要時間才能下降。我們預期上半年資本支出佔比會更高。我們預計，隨著下半年銷售回升，資本支出和庫存下降，下半年將恢復自由現金流。當然，我們正在努力——繼續控制資本支出，繼續降低各項費用，並盡最大努力管理我們的營運資金，以期在第一季取得比預期更好的業績。

And our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Timothy Arcuri。

Mark, so it sounds like you're basically calling sort of February as the bottom in earnings. It sounds like revenue is going to be about flat. But obviously, gross margin is probably going to move lower because you said pricing is going to come down, and it sounds like costs are going to go up. But I guess my question is more sort of around the behavior from these cloud customers in light of what's happening to supply. I mean, DRAM supply is, as you said, up only mid-singles next year. Most of that has to be coming out of inventory. So production is probably pretty flat across the industry, if not down. So these are pretty sophisticated customers. So I would think that they're going to come back to the table pretty early next year such that you could see a pretty sharp recovery in pricing. So I'm just sort of wondering if maybe, Sanjay or Mark, you can talk about sort of the behavior from these cloud customers and sort of how you think this plays out through the year as you've sort of called February as the bottom.

馬克，聽起來你基本上把二月的獲利預測定為谷底。營收似乎會持平。但很顯然，毛利率可能會下降，因為你說過價格會下降，而成本似乎會上升。不過，我的問題更多的是關於雲端客戶在目前供應狀況下的行為。我的意思是，正如你所說，DRAM 的供應量明年只會增加到年中。大部分成長必須來自庫存。所以，整個產業的產量可能相當平穩，甚至下降。這些都是非常成熟的客戶。所以我認為他們會在明年年初就重返談判桌，屆時價格可能會出現相當強勁的反彈。所以我想問桑傑或馬克，你們能否談談這些雲端客戶的行為，以及你們認為這種情況會如何發展，畢竟你們已經把二月預測為谷底了。

So look, we are not going to project future pricing trend here. But of course, we will continue to work closely with customers, not just in cloud, but customers across all end market segments. And of course, as we noted, the inventories are -- at our customers are high across all end market segments, and they are adjusting their inventory levels, including in cloud. We will, of course, most important thing is to take actions, and we have taken decisive action with respect to WFE reduction by nearly 50% and reducing our supply growth. We expect the industry supply growth to be in the mid-single digit in 2023, and our supply growth will also be in line with the industry around the same for DRAM.

所以，我們不會在此預測未來的價格趨勢。當然，我們將繼續與客戶緊密合作，不僅是雲端領域的客戶，也包括所有終端市場領域的客戶。正如我們之前提到的，目前所有終端市場領域的客戶庫存都很高，他們正在調整庫存水平，包括雲端領域的客戶。當然，最重要的是採取行動，我們已經採取了果斷措施，將WFE（晶圓級元件）的庫存削減了近50%，並降低了供應增長。我們預計2023年產業供應成長將處於個位數中段，而我們的DRAM供應成長也將與產業平均值大致持平。

So I think what's important is that the supply growth will be less, while the demand growth, once inventory adjustments at customers have normalized or have substantially improved by our second -- fiscal second half, then demand will go up from customers. And we expect that the DRAM demand will be in mid-teens supported by inventory, but the supply growth will be meaningfully less than demand growth. And that's what will bring an improving trajectory of industry supply/demand balance and improving fundamentals for our business as we go through calendar year '23.

所以我認為重要的是，供應成長將會放緩，而需求成長——一旦客戶的庫存調整恢復正常或在我們下個財年下半年大幅改善——客戶需求就會上升。我們預計DRAM需求將維持在15%左右，庫存足以支撐這一成長，但供應成長將遠低於需求成長。這將推動產業供需平衡逐步改善，並為我們2023年的業務基本面帶來改善。

Can I just clarify on that, Sanjay? So your supply will be mid-single digits, but your production is actually going to be down year-over-year, correct?

桑傑，我可以確認一下嗎？所以你的供應量會是中位數個位數，但你的產量實際上會比去年同期下降，對嗎？

What we are saying is that the supply growth will be mid-single digits. And -- but the shipments will be in the mid-teens range, in line with the demand recovery that we expect. And we are also saying that we expect industry supply growth to be also in the mid-single digit for DRAM next year. Remember, this is -- this would correspond to the lowest on record supply growth for DRAM. So again, the supply growth will be in the mid-single digits. Inventory will be used to supply the demand, which will be higher than the supply growth, we expect the demand to be in mid-teens next year.

我們預計供應成長將處於個位數中段水準。而出貨量將達到十幾個百分點，與我們預期的需求復甦相符。我們也預計，明年DRAM的產業供應成長也將處於個位數中段水準。請記住，這將是DRAM有史以來最低的供應成長。因此，供應成長將再次處於個位數中段水準。庫存將用於滿足需求，而需求成長將高於供應成長，我們預計明年的需求成長將達到十幾個百分點。

Yes. And maybe, Tim, just to maybe provide some color around the quarters, we do expect, as we've laid out that bits and ASP will be down in the first quarter. And they're down about the same, volume may be down a little bit more. Costs are slightly up in DRAM and NAND, and that's just a combination of volume mix inflation and then just node timing.

是的。提姆，或許為了更清楚地說明季度情況，正如我們之前預測的那樣，我們預計第一季的比特率和平均售價都會下降。它們的降幅大致相同，銷量可能會略微下降一些。 DRAM 和 NAND 的成本略有上升，這主要是由於銷售量組成膨脹以及製程節點時間調整共同造成的。

In the second quarter, as Sanjay mentioned, bits will be up, but they'll still be down year-over-year. And then as we said, the revenue range will be similar to the first quarter. And then in the second half, bits will be up sequentially third to fourth quarter. And then second half should be up a bits year-over-year. And then costs for the full year, we would expect DRAM cost downs to be lower than the long-term average. We do get some benefit from FX, but we get some inflation and some other factors that go against us. And then NAND, cost reductions are challenged, a combination of mix and inflation, and just a more difficult situation there. But I think the important takeaway is from the first quarter, we expect things to improve versus volumes and then the market better in the second half.

正如Sanjay所提到的，第二季銷量會有所成長，但年比仍將下降。正如我們所說，營收區間將與第一季類似。下半年，銷售量將季增，從第三季到第四季有所回升。下半年同比銷售也應該會成長。至於全年成本，我們預計DRAM成本下降幅度將低於長期平均值。匯率波動會帶來一些利好，但通貨膨脹和其他一些因素也會對我們不利。 NAND快閃記憶體的成本降低面臨挑戰，產品組合和通貨膨脹等因素共同作用，使得情況更加複雜。但我認為，從第一季來看，我們預期銷售量會有所改善，下半年市場整體表現也會更好。

Our next question comes from the line of Karl Ackerman from BNP Paribas.

我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的卡爾·阿克曼。

I have 2 questions, please. I guess the first question is just kind of a follow-up on CapEx. I know in the past, you have described capital intensity being in the 30% to 35% range of sales. But it does appear that memory demand for calendar '22 and calendar '23 could still be below your long-term expectations of mid-teens DRAM demand and 20% to 30% for NAND demand.

我有兩個問題。第一個問題其實是關於資本支出（CapEx）的後續問題。我知道您之前提到過資本密集度在銷售額的30%到35%之間。但看起來2022年和2023年的記憶體需求可能仍然低於您長期的預期，即DRAM需求佔比在15%左右，NAND需求佔比在20%到30%之間。

And so I guess the question is, do you believe that the industry's framework for CapEx needs to consider a lower terminal bit growth rate for DRAM and NAND, and I guess what are your own views on managing long-term capital investments to support bit demand beyond fiscal '23? And then I have a follow-up, please.

所以我想問的是，您是否認為產業資本支出框架需要考慮DRAM和NAND快閃記憶體較低的終端位元成長率？另外，您對如何管理長期資本投資以支持2023財年以後的比特需求有何看法？還有一個後續問題。

So our view on long-term DRAM CAGR is mid-teens and NAND CAGR approximately 28%. And we would always be managing our investments to grow our supply in line with demand. Of course, there can be variations through the cycle, but we will overall focus on making adjustments as needed, just like you have seen adjustments now.

因此，我們對DRAM長期複合年增長率的預期是15%左右，NAND複合年增長率約為28%。我們將始終調整投資策略，以確保供應量與需求保持同步成長。當然，週期中可能會出現波動，但我們將始終專注於根據需要進行調整，就像您現在看到的調整一樣。

And just keep in mind that -- as we look ahead at CapEx considerations, we should keep in mind that the tech transitions are getting more expensive. And of course, tech transitions are taking longer as well. So the capital intensity is higher, tech transitions are also giving actually lower bit growth. And of course, transition to DDR5 is also contributing to lower rate growth per wafer because DDR5 die, it has to be just bigger than the DDR4 die because of the specifications.

請記住，在展望未來資本支出時，我們應該考慮到技術轉型成本越來越高，耗時也越來越長。因此，資本密集度更高，技術轉型帶來的比特率成長實際上也更低。當然，向DDR5的過渡也導致了每片晶圓速率增長的降低，因為由於規格要求，DDR5晶片必須比DDR4晶片更大。

So our expectation is a cross cycle on average over long term, our CapEx would be around mid-30s that we have stated earlier, mid-30s percent of revenue. And of course, any given year, there can be variations, but that's a cross-cycle CapEx intensity that we would be expecting.

因此，我們預期長期來看，平均而言，跨週期資本支出將達到我們先前提到的收入的30%左右。當然，任何一年都可能存在波動，但這就是我們預期的跨週期資本支出強度。

I appreciate that, Sanjay. I guess for my follow-up, I was curious what portion of your unfinished goods inventory is fungible and can be repurposed to either different end markets or different customers even within that payment end market? Just any clarity in terms of how you can kind of repurpose some of the inventories that you have would be quite helpful.

謝謝你的回复，桑傑。我想進一步了解一下，你們的未完成庫存中有多少是可替代的，可以重新用於不同的終端市場，甚至在同一終端市場內也可以重新用於不同的客戶？如果您能詳細說明一下你們是如何重新利用部分庫存的，那就太好了。

Yes. I think, Karl, most of it is designed to the way we build it, designed to be repurposed. I mean, there's some limitations, of course. But that strategy is going to yield benefit here because this downturn was so sharp and sudden unprecedented that inventories have grown to levels over what we thought just last quarter when we had our earnings call. We ended at 139 days. We should be down around 100, 110 ideally. But we do expect an increase again in the first quarter to be over 150 days, and it will be elevated through the second quarter and stay elevated probably through the balance of the year until the recovery is meaningful and customers replenish their own inventories.

是的。卡爾，我認為大部分的產品都是按照我們的設計理念打造的，可以重複使用。當然，這其中也存在一些限制。但這種策略在這裡將會奏效，因為這次經濟衰退來得如此劇烈和突然，前所未有，導致庫存水準已經超過了我們上個季度財報電話會議上的預期。當時我們的庫存天數是139天。理想情況下，庫存天數應該在100到110天左右。但我們預計第一季庫存天數會再次上升，超過150天，並且在第二季度會繼續保持高位，可能還會持續到年底，直到市場真正復甦，客戶開始補充庫存為止。

But we should see it begin to decline in days over the back half. And of course, this view shape the CapEx you as well to take supply out, and -- but we're confident that over time -- it's good inventory. I think it's leading node primarily. And as you point out, it's fungible in a sense. So we're confident that over time, we'll be able to redeploy or use that inventory and eventually get down to our target 100, 110 days.

但我們應該會看到，在後半程，庫存週轉天數會開始下降。當然，這種觀點也會影響資本支出，以便減少庫存，而且——但我們相信，隨著時間的推移——庫存狀況良好。我認為這主要是領先節點的問題。正如您所指出的，從某種意義上說，它是可以替代的。因此，我們相信，隨著時間的推移，我們將能夠重新部署或利用這些庫存，並最終達到我們設定的100到110天的目標週轉天數。

And our next question comes from the line Joseph Moore from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的約瑟夫·摩爾。

Great. I wonder if you could talk about the November quarter. At the midpoint, it looks like your cost of sales comes down almost $900 million sequentially. And I think of that as being kind of depreciation, labor overhead, things like that. What's happening there that the sort of fixed cost elements of that are coming down so much? And is that sustainable beyond the November quarter?

好的。我想請您談談11月份的季度情況。季度中期數據顯示，您的銷售成本較上季下降了近9億美元。我認為這主要包括折舊、人力成本等。是什麼原因導致這些固定成本項目下降了這麼多？這種下降趨勢能否持續到11月之後？

Yes, Joe, we're -- I mean, we're -- clearly, we're running the fabs and that's being absorbed into inventories. So I think that's the short answer to your question. Volumes are down, of course. So...

是的，喬，我們——我的意思是，我們——很明顯，我們仍在運營晶圓廠，而這些產能都已計入庫存。所以我想這就是你問題的簡短答案。產量當然下降了。所以…

Yes. Okay. But you built $1 billion worth of inventory in the August quarter, almost that much, and you had $4 billion of cost of sales, and it's going down to $3.1 million next quarter. So I guess it's just a pretty significant inventory build as the way to read that?

是的，好的。但是你們在八月的季度裡增加了價值10億美元的庫存，差不多就是這個數額，而你們的銷售成本是40億美元，下個季度將降至310萬美元。所以，我猜想，這應該算是相當大規模的庫存增加吧？

Yes. I think as I answered in the last question, we're -- inventory levels are high and they're going to be higher. There'll be over 150 days, we believe. And -- again, it's a function of this unprecedented period, and we're doing what we can to affect future supply or future capacity, be in a position to work those inventories down. They're high-quality inventory, so they will be usable. And we're managing working capital expenses, cash flow, all of them aggressively at this time.

是的。正如我在上一個問題中回答的那樣，我們的庫存水平很高，而且還會更高。我們預計庫存週轉天數將超過150天。再次強調，這是在當前特殊時期造成的，我們正在盡一切努力影響未來的供應和產能，以便盡快降低庫存。這些庫存品質很高，所以仍然可以使用。目前，我們正在積極有效地管理營運資金支出和現金流。

And our next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Mark, just a quick follow-up. You commented that February revenue could track flattish but gross margin would at least be down 2 points because you said the underutilization charges would have a gross margin impact later. Is that -- should I assume that, that will happen in February?

馬克，我再補充一下。你之前提到二月的營收可能基本上持平，但毛利率至少會下降2個百分點，因為你說產能利用率不足的費用會在之後對毛利率產生影響。我是否可以假設這種情況會在二月發生？

Yes. It would be -- it depends on when the inventory is clear, but -- yes, later in the year, Mehdi. And then you've got -- gross margin, of course, is going to be a function. It's not just that cost element, it's going to be pricing. And at that point in the market we think volumes are recovering -- and we're just -- we're not guiding out at that point on the rest of the P&L -- or the elements of the P&L.

是的。這取決於庫存何時清理完畢，但——是的，Mehdi，大概在今年晚些時候。然後，毛利率當然會受到多種因素的影響。它不僅取決於成本，還取決於定價。我們認為，屆時市場銷售將會復甦－至於損益表的其他部分，或損益表的各個組成部分，我們目前不做預測。

Should I expect 200 basis points of gross margin hit due to underutilization throughout the remainder of fiscal '23?

我是否應該預期在 2023 財年剩餘時間內，由於產能利用率不足，毛利率將下降 200 個基點？

Mehdi, we're not -- I mean, that's going to be a headwind in the back half of the year, but it's -- but we're not guiding those quarters at this point. Just we gave a framework for how we see our business recovering along with the broader industry and what we believe will be the demand activity with our customers.

邁赫迪，我們目前——我的意思是，這肯定會是下半年的一大阻力，但我們現在不做下半年的業績預測。我們只是概述了我們對自身業務以及整個行業復甦的預期框架，以及我們認為客戶的需求活動將會如何變化。

Sure. Fair. And I guess my follow-up question is also related to on underutilization rate. You laid out a very conservative view on the shipment for '23, especially on the supply side. But you're also assuming the demand would inflect to be after February quarter. Would there be a scenario that demand actually -- the demand improvement is not as significant? And would you be willing to take additional unutilization charges?

當然，沒問題。我的後續問題也與產能利用率有關。您對2023年的出貨量，尤其是供應方面，給了非常保守的預測。但您也假設需求會在2月份季度之後出現轉機。是否存在需求實際改善不如預期顯著的情況？您是否願意承擔額外的產能利用率損失？

So Mehdi I would say that we would, of course, continue to monitor the macro trends as well as the trends in our industry and the overall business. And of course, we will be prepared to take necessary actions as appropriate to address the short-term as well as the long-term needs. So we will continue to look at, just like we have moved decisively here with respect to underutilization, looking at products that have excess inventory and leveraging that underutilization, as I said before, towards using the tools towards differing CapEx requirements. And we'll continue to look for those opportunities as needed.

所以，Mehdi，我想說，我們當然會繼續關注宏觀趨勢、行業趨勢以及整體業務趨勢。當然，我們也會做好準備，根據實際情況採取必要措施，以滿足短期和長期需求。就像我們之前果斷地解決了產能利用不足的問題一樣，我們將繼續關注庫存過剩的產品，並利用這些閒置資源，正如我之前所說，透過各種工具來滿足不同的資本支出需求。我們會根據需要繼續尋找這些機會。

And our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的維韋克·阿亞。

I think, Sanjay, in your prepared remarks, you mentioned calendar '23 bit demand will be in line with historical trends. I'm curious, what are your assumptions about the PC and the smartphone market next year that would support bit demand growth to be in line with historical trends?

桑傑，我認為你在事先準備好的演講稿中提到，2023年位需求將與歷史趨勢保持一致。我很好奇，你對明年個人電腦和智慧型手機市場有哪些假設，才能支撐位需求成長與歷史趨勢一致？

So with respect to PC, this year, PC -- overall PC unit demand is down as I mentioned in the script, mid-teens percentage points. And next year in calendar year '23, we expect it to be flat to slightly down. And with respect to smartphones, we certainly expect that China would be opening up and China economy would be rebounding. The COVID lockdowns have had significant impact on China demand. So overall smartphone unit sales this year down on a year-over-year basis, down high single digits. And we would expect that next year, there would be some rebound in the smartphone unit sales.

所以就個人電腦而言，正如我在演講稿中提到的，今年個人電腦的整體需求下降了十幾個百分點。我們預計明年（2023年）將持平或略有下降。至於智慧型手機，我們當然預期中國經濟將逐步開放並復甦。新冠疫情的封鎖措施對中國的需求產生了重大影響。因此，今年智慧型手機的整體銷量較去年同期下降，降幅接近兩位數。我們預計明年智慧型手機的銷量將有所回升。

Again, I think what's important is that the content continues to be the biggest driver of growth. 5G phones need more memory, need more storage. And as we also highlighted in our prepared remarks, of course, we are extremely focused on shifting the business away from what used to be 55% in consumer side, including PC and smartphone, in fiscal year '21, towards going to 38% by fiscal year '25. And so we are really marching along well on that strategy.

我認為，內容仍然是成長的最大驅動力，這一點至關重要。 5G手機需要更大的記憶體和儲存空間。正如我們在事先準備好的發言稿中所強調的那樣，我們正全力以赴地將業務重心從2021財年佔55%的消費端（包括PC和智慧型手機）轉向2025財年的38%。目前，我們正朝著這個策略穩步前進。

In fact, in fiscal year '22, we reduced that percentage to 48%. So we are increasing the mix of more attractive and more stable markets such as, of course, data center and automotive, industrial, networking, graphics, and we are successfully delivering on that strategy.

事實上，在 2022 財年，我們將這一比例降至 48%。因此，我們正在增加更具吸引力和更穩定的市場組合，例如資料中心、汽車、工業、網路、圖形等領域，而且我們正在成功地實施這項策略。

It's very helpful. And then on the range of WFE cuts for next year, are you expecting your competitors to also reduce spending by the same level? And where I'm going with that question is at what point does it become a competitive concern? Because historically, most of your spending has been on technology. So if you're cutting that by 50%, at what point does it impact your competitive capabilities and impact your cost down capabilities?

這很有幫助。關於明年WFE（勞動支出）的削減幅度，您是否預期競爭對手也會採取相同幅度的削減措施？我問這個問題的重點是，削減到什麼程度才會對競爭構成威脅？因為從歷史上看，貴公司的大部分支出都用於技術方面。如果削減50%的技術支出，那麼這會在什麼情況下影響貴公司的競爭力以及降低成本的能力？

So look, historically, the DRAM industry in recent years have been disciplined in terms of CapEx management and supply growth management. Of course, the current environment is unprecedented with respect to the confluence of factors that we discussed that have impacted demand and the unprecedented level of inventory adjustments by our customers as well. We will take the necessary actions to bring our supply in line with demand. We think it is prudent. It is important to be rational in this regard. Of course, as we highlighted that this is a headwind to cost with respect to delaying the technology transitions for our 1-beta and for our 232-layer NAND as well as using underutilization. But this is the right thing to do for the business to bring supply growth in line with demand growth. And this is what will restore the healthy trajectory of demand supply balance.

所以，從歷史角度來看，近年來DRAM產業在資本支出管理和供應成長管理方面一直保持著嚴格的紀律。當然，當前情況前所未有，正如我們討論的那樣，多種因素交織在一起，影響了需求，同時客戶也進行了前所未有的庫存調整。我們將採取必要措施，使供應與需求保持一致。我們認為這是審慎之舉，保持理性至關重要。當然，正如我們所強調的，這會增加成本，例如推遲1-beta版和232層NAND的技術轉型，以及利用閒置產能。但為了使供應成長與需求成長一致，這是企業必須採取的正確措施。而這將有助於恢復供需平衡的健康發展軌跡。

So this is the right thing to do. And I just want to also highlight that we would, of course, maintain our share as well. And that is important. But -- as part of that strategy, we will also continue to shift towards parts of the market, as I highlighted in my prior comments, where the profit pool is greater. So it's -- we will maintain share, but we'll also continue to shift towards strengthened profitability. And I think you have seen that from Micron over the course of last few years, whereas we used to be significantly behind our competitors in margins, today, we are matching the margins if you look at past few quarters. So I think that just shows that we remain disciplined and we remain focused on continuing to shift our portfolio towards greater pools of profitability.

所以，這樣做是正確的。我還想強調一點，我們當然也會維持市場份額，這一點很重要。但是，作為該策略的一部分，正如我之前提到的，我們將繼續向利潤空間更大的市場領域轉型。因此，我們會維持市場份額，但同時也會繼續提升獲利能力。我認為大家已經從美光過去幾年的表現中看到了這一點：過去我們的利潤率遠落後於競爭對手，但如今，如果你看看過去幾個季度的業績，就會發現我們的利潤率已經與他們持平。我認為這表明我們始終保持嚴謹的態度，並專注於不斷調整我們的業務組合，使其朝向利潤空間更大的領域發展。

And maybe just to add, Vivek, is I think we made the point that of the remaining spend we have, its focus is on technology. So to your point we appreciate the need to invest in advancing the technology in the business. So the remaining spend we have will be focused on that. And then we still can maintain our position in the market with the inventories that we have that we talked about in the prior question, well over 150 days, as we enter the next quarter. And we'll have that to draw on for some period of time.

維韋克，我還要補充一點，我們之前已經強調過，剩餘的支出將主要用於技術方面。正如你所說，我們理解需要投資於業務技術進步。因此，剩餘的支出將集中用於此。此外，正如我們在上一個問題中提到的，我們擁有超過150天的庫存，這足以讓我們在進入下一個季度時保持市場地位。這些庫存將在未來一段時間內為我們提供支援。

And our next question comes from the line of Brian Chin from Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

It's related to the last question, but what's then is your assumption for industry memory WFE decline in calendar '23 that translates into a mid-single-digit increase in DRAM bit supply next year?

這與上一個問題有關，那麼您對 2023 年工業記憶體 WFE 下降的假設是什麼，才能轉化為明年 DRAM 位元供應量的個位數成長？

Look, we have shared with you what we are implementing in terms of WFE decrease, but certainly can't be commenting on parts of others in industry with respect to their WFE actions. But as I pointed out, historically, the industry has been disciplined has been prudent in terms of taking actions to manage supply growth, especially when it gets ahead of the industry demand.

我們已經和大家分享了我們在減少勞動力投入方面所採取的措施，但我們當然無法對業內其他企業在減少勞動力投入方面的做法發表評論。不過正如我之前提到的，從歷史經驗來看，整個產業在採取措施控制供應成長方面一直保持著謹慎和自律的態度，尤其是在供應成長超過產業需求的情況下。

Okay. Yes. I'm just curious what that is, even not knowing what company's plans or what that assumption is because there must be a particular assumption that drives sort of that mid-single-digit supply growth for DRAM bits. Maybe closer to home, maybe just one quick follow-up, you kick start on 1-beta DRAM and 232-layer NAND in the second half of this year. Just curious how long -- how many quarters do you think until those 2 products cross over 50% of bit shipments? And if it's a bit slower than originally planned, how does that compare to a typical time frame to ramp the new technologies?

好的。是的。我只是好奇這到底是怎麼回事，即使我不知道是哪家公司的計劃，也不知道這個假設是什麼，因為肯定有某種特定的假設推動了DRAM位元供應量實現這種個位數的中段增長。或許可以更直接問一個後續問題，你們打算在今年下半年啟動1-beta DRAM和232層NAND快閃記憶體專案。我只是好奇，你們認為需要多久——大概幾季——這兩個產品才能達到位元出貨量的50%以上？如果比原計劃慢一些，那麼與新技術通常的量產週期相比如何？

So I think it's important to understand that we are delaying the ramp of-232-layer and 1-beta technology versus our prior plans. And most of the CapEx, the $8 billion CapEx that we have talked about, or the WFE CapEx that we are talking about is actually going towards preparing those technologies for engineering, learning and producing the products for new -- in production for customer qualifications.

所以我認為，重要的是要理解，我們推遲了232層和1-beta技術的量產，這與之前的計劃有所不同。我們之前提到的80億美元資本支出，或者說我們所說的WFE資本支出，實際上大部分都用於這些技術的工程準備、學習和產品生產，以便進行新的生產測試和客戶認證。

In turn, these technologies will really not be contributing to the revenue shipments through our fiscal year '23 until late in fiscal year '23. They will be the primary drivers of bit growth and revenue growth and, of course, cost reductions in fiscal year '24, because we will be, again, relying on using the inventory to supplement our reduced supply growth to meet the uptick in demand that we expect in fiscal year '23.

反過來，這些技術在 2023 財年結束前不會對我們的營收出貨量做出真正的貢獻。它們將成為 2024 財年比特成長、收入成長以及成本降低的主要驅動力，因為我們將再次依靠庫存來補充我們減少的供應成長，以滿足我們預計在 2023 財年出現的需求成長。

And this does conclude the question-and-answer session as well as today's program. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation. You may now disconnect. Good day.

問答環節到此結束，今天的節目也到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在可以斷開連線了。祝大家愉快。