摩根士丹利 (MS) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to Morgan Stanley's first-quarter 2025 earnings call. On behalf of Morgan Stanley, I will begin the call with the following information and disclaimers. This call is being recorded. During today's presentation, we will refer to our earnings release and financial supplement, copies of which are available at morganstanley.com.

早安.歡迎參加摩根士丹利 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。我將代表摩根士丹利在電話會議上開始以下資訊和免責聲明。此通話正在錄音。在今天的演示中，我們將參考我們的收益報告和財務補充資料，其副本可在 morganstanley.com 上取得。

Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. Morgan Stanley does not undertake to update the forward-looking statements in this discussion. Please refer to our notices regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures that appear in the earnings release. This presentation may not be duplicated or reproduced without our consent.

今天的演示可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果大不相同。摩根士丹利不承諾更新本討論中的前瞻性陳述。請參閱我們關於收益報告中出現的前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則指標的通知。未經我們的同意，不得複製或影印本簡報。

I will now turn the call over to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Ted Pick.

現在我將電話轉給董事長兼執行長泰德‧皮克 (Ted Pick)。

Good morning. Thank you for joining us.

早安.感謝您加入我們。

The firm delivered a very strong quarter with $17.7 billion in revenue, $2.60 in EPS, and a 23% return on tangible. Wealth added $94 billion of net new assets, bringing the firm total to $7.7 trillion. Equities had a record $4 billion-plus quarter, which led to strong results across institutional securities.

該公司本季業績表現非常強勁，營收達 177 億美元，每股收益 2.60 美元，有形資產回報率達 23%。財富增加了 940 億美元的淨新資產，使公司總資產達到 7.7 兆美元。本季股票市場交易額創下 40 多億美元的新高，帶動機構證券業績強勁。

Morgan Stanley delivered returns while supporting clients, buying back stock opportunistically and building $2 billion of capital. Over the last five quarters, we've grown our equity capital base by about 10%. With a CET1 ratio of 15.3%, our excess capital position and financial strength give us ongoing flexibility in support of clients and shareholders.

摩根士丹利在支持客戶、適時回購股票並累積 20 億美元資本的同時，也實現了回報。在過去的五個季度中，我們的股本基礎增長了約 10%。我們的 CET1 比率為 15.3%，超額資本狀況和財務實力使我們能夠持續且靈活地支持客戶和股東。

It is important that we put up five clean quarters. Our focus on clients combined with discipline around capital, risk, headcount, and investment have generated sequential earnings of $2.02, $1.82, $1.88. $2.22 and now $2.60. This was against the backdrop that was generally favorable, but one that hasn't yet seen the tailwind of the long-awaited M&A and IPO capital market cycle.

重要的是我們要蓋五個乾淨的宿舍。我們對客戶的關注，加上對資本、風險、員工人數和投資的嚴格管控，使我們連續獲得了 2.02 美元、1.82 美元和 1.88 美元的收益。之前是 2.22 美元，現在為 2.60 美元。這是在整體利好的背景下發生的，但尚未看到期待已久的併購和 IPO 資本市場週期的順風。

Delivering an average of 20% returns on tangible over the last five quarters is continued affirmation of our financial goals. We've been talking for the last three years about the end of history, which is to say the end of an extended period of political and economic alignment toward globalization.

過去五個季度平均實現 20% 的有形回報繼續肯定了我們的財務目標。過去三年來，我們一直在談論歷史的終結，也就是說，長期的政治和經濟全球化的終結。

History now resumes, and with that comes an adjustment period where the outlook is necessarily less predictable. The stock, bond, and currency markets are exhibiting the kind of overnight and intraday volatility that reflect rapidly changing probability assessments of different policy outcomes.

歷史現在重新開始，隨之而來的是一段調整期，前景必然變得更難預測。股票、債券和貨幣市場正在經歷隔夜和盤中波動，這反映了對不同政策結果的機率評估的快速變化。

Economists are telling us the risk of recession has materially increased. But the consensus today is softer, not negative growth. Inflation meanwhile continues to swing between declining and sticky, but here too, the forward path of prices along the supply chain to producers and consumers is unclear. The simple truth today is that we do not yet know where trade policy will settle, nor do we know what the actual transmission effects will be on the real economy.

經濟學家告訴我們，經濟衰退的風險大幅增加。但今天的共識是成長放緩，而不是負成長。與此同時，通膨繼續在下降和黏性之間搖擺，但價格沿著供應鏈向生產者和消費者的走向仍不明朗。今天的簡單事實是，我們還不知道貿易政策最終會如何定論，也不知道其對實體經濟的實際傳導效應會如何。

As the year progresses, markets will calibrate further clarity on trade policy against the tax and deregulatory pillars of the agenda as the US endeavors to rebalance the fiscal equation and assert the national interest.

隨著時間的流逝，隨著美國努力重新平衡財政狀況並維護國家利益，市場將根據議程中的稅收和放鬆管制支柱進一步明確貿易政策。

Given this unpredictability, some clients are deferring strategic activity while others are proceeding. Importantly, core segments of our client universe are continuing to engage. Barring the worst-case risk off scenario, trade and geopolitical uncertainty will be priced into the markets over time, and the raising, managing, and allocating capital, the lifeblood of our business, will continue as corporates and investors cannot and will not ignore their trade, energy, and technology priorities. In volatile periods, windows to deploy and reallocate capital open and close and open again. It is in such moments that clients most value Morgan Stanley's global reach and depth, our insights and advice, our capital markets access, and our execution capabilities.

鑑於這種不可預測性，一些客戶正在推遲策略活動，而其他客戶則繼續進行。重要的是，我們的客戶群的核心部分正在繼續參與。除非出現最壞的風險規避情況，貿易和地緣政治的不確定性將隨著時間的推移被市場消化，而籌集、管理和分配資本（我們業務的命脈）將繼續下去，因為企業和投資者不能也不會忽視他們的貿易、能源和技術優先事項。在動盪時期，部署和重新分配資本的視窗會開啟、關閉並再次開啟。正是在這樣的時刻，客戶最重視摩根士丹利的全球影響力和深度、我們的見解和建議、我們的資本市場准入以及我們的執行能力。

The Morgan Stanley of today is in a very good place. It is worth noting that we just delivered a top-line and bottom-line record quarter. While we are rightly focused on near term uncertainties and disruptions in the markets, our approach is to prudently plan for the longer-term horizon. Our strategy to raise, manage, and allocate capital for clients is crisp, and it is clear.

如今的摩根士丹利處境非常好。值得注意的是，我們剛剛公佈了一個創紀錄的季度營收和淨利潤。雖然我們正確地關注了短期市場中的不確定性和混亂，但我們的做法是審慎規劃長期前景。我們為客戶籌集、管理和分配資金的策略是清晰明了的。

We have an experienced and stable management team and a deep bench of talent that is focused on that which we can control. We have financial strength and durability. We have a culture of rigor, humility, and partnership across our Integrated Firm. With a demonstrated track record of execution and now five strong quarters in, I am confident that Morgan Stanley will navigate this moment of history’s resuming with focus and intensity and that the firm will continue to scale client wallet and drive long-term operating results.

我們擁有一支經驗豐富、穩定的管理團隊和一群深厚的人才，專注於我們能夠控制的領域。我們有財務實力和持久力。我們的綜合公司擁有嚴謹、謙遜和合作的文化。憑藉著卓越的執行力和五個季度以來的強勁表現，我相信摩根士丹利將全神貫注、全力以赴地度過這一歷史性復甦時刻，並將繼續擴大客戶收入並推動長期經營業績。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Sharon to discuss the quarter in more detail.

接下來，我將把時間交給 Sharon 來更詳細地討論本季的情況。

Thank you and good morning. The firm produced record revenues of $17.7 billion in EPS of $2.60 with a strong ROTCE of 23%. The results demonstrate the power of advice and supporting clients as the intermediary of capital across products and geographies, particularly during periods of uncertainty.

謝謝，早安。該公司創造了創紀錄的 177 億美元營收，每股收益 2.60 美元，ROTCE 高達 23%。研究結果證明了建議和支持客戶作為跨產品和跨地域資本中介的力量，尤其是在不確定時期。

With the long-standing global footprint, we are uniquely positioned to serve clients as they navigate global market events and quickly evolving macro dynamics. The first quarter efficiency ratio was 68%. Strong revenues and a continued focus on creating capacity to invest in longer term initiatives contributed to results. Improved efficiency comes despite $144 million of severance charges, which were related to performance management and the alignment of our business needs.

憑藉著長期的全球影響力，我們擁有獨特的優勢，能夠幫助客戶應對全球市場事件和快速變化的宏觀動態。第一季效率比率為68%。強勁的收入和持續關注創造投資長期計劃的能力促成了業績的實現。儘管支付了 1.44 億美元的遣散費，但效率仍然得到了提高，這些費用與績效管理和業務需求的調整有關。

Now to the businesses. Institutional securities delivered a record quarter with revenues of $9 billion, up 28% versus the prior year. The breadth of our capabilities and our geographic reach, particularly in our equity franchise and in Asia, drove exceptional performance.

現在談談企業。機構證券本季創下紀錄，營收達 90 億美元，較上年成長 28%。我們的能力範圍和地理覆蓋範圍（特別是在股權特許經營權和亞洲）推動了卓越的業績。

Global activity among financial sponsors increased, supporting a steady recovery in investment banking from trough levels. Market catalysts such as shifting dynamics in AI, uncertainty around global monetary policy, and US trade debates created bouts of volatility during the quarter, leading to high levels of client activity and engagement.

全球金融贊助商的活動增加，支持投資銀行業務從低谷穩步復甦。人工智慧動態變化、全球貨幣政策的不確定性以及美國貿易辯論等市場催化劑在本季度引發了波動，導致客戶活動和參與度高漲。

Against this backdrop, Morgan Stanley advised and supported clients as they rebalanced risk, consistent with our strengths and our business model. Investment banking revenues were $1.6 billion for the quarter. Strength in fixed income underwriting offset results in equity underwriting.

在此背景下，摩根士丹利為客戶提供建議和支持，幫助他們重新平衡風險，這與我們的優勢和業務模式一致。本季投資銀行收入為 16 億美元。固定收益承銷的強勁表現抵消了股票承銷的疲軟表現。

Advisory revenues of $563 million reflected higher completed deals across regions. Activity during this period was supported by a pickup in financial sponsor engagement and growth in mid-size deal announcements. Equity underwriting revenues were $319 million. Equity markets were largely open, but activity was muted as issuers and investors evaluated the evolving landscape, particularly in the Americas.

5.63 億美元的諮詢收入反映了各地區完成交易數量的增加。這段時期的活動受到金融贊助商參與度上升和中型交易公告成長的支持。股票承銷收入為3.19億美元。股票市場基本上開放，但由於發行人和投資者對不斷變化的情況進行評估，尤其是在美洲，活動較為低迷。

Fixed income underwriting delivered revenues of $677 million. The result was very strong, with non-investment grade loan issuance driving outperformance. Strong investor demand and tight credit spreads supported active issuance, providing opportunities for our business to capture share during the quarter.

固定收益承銷收入達 6.77 億美元。結果非常強勁，非投資級貸款發行推動了優異表現。強勁的投資者需求和緊縮的信用利差支持了積極發行，為我們的業務在本季度搶佔市場份額提供了機會。

With tariff announcements and subsequent market volatility -- excuse me, while tariff announcements and subsequent market volatility has disrupted near term deal activity, our pipelines have not meaningfully changed since the beginning of the year and remain robust. Therefore, while the timing of the deal execution remains sensitive to market conditions, there remains demand for strategic advice and capital raising.

隨著關稅公告和隨後的市場波動——對不起，雖然關稅公告和隨後的市場波動擾亂了近期的交易活動，但我們的管道自今年年初以來並沒有發生重大變化，仍然保持強勁。因此，雖然交易執行的時間仍受市場條件的影響，但對策略建議和融資的需求仍然存在。

Turning to equity, revenues were robust, increasing 45% from the prior year to a record $4.1 billion. The quarter reflects strength across our client franchise. A broad and deep global footprint, prudent risk management, and returns on our multi-year investments across products contributed to results.

談到股權，營收表現強勁，較上年成長 45%，達到創紀錄的 41 億美元。本季度反映了我們客戶特許經營的強勁表現。廣泛而深入的全球業務、審慎的風險管理以及我​​們多年來在各個產品上的投資回報促成了業績的實現。

Globally, we helped clients remain agile amid shifting market themes. Prime brokerage continued to report strong results. Clients remain engaged and invested. Our cash business benefited from volumes increasing across regions. Derivative revenues were meaningfully up versus the prior year. The result reflects higher client activity amid a more volatile trading environment.

在全球範圍內，我們幫助客戶在不斷變化的市場主題中保持敏捷。大宗經紀業務持續報告強勁業績。客戶繼續參與並投入。我們的現金業務受惠於各地區交易量的成長。衍生性商品收入較上年有顯著成長。這一結果反映出在更動盪的交易環境中客戶活動更加活躍。

Fixed income revenues were $2.6 billion improving versus the prior year. An increase in flow trading activity offset fewer structured opportunities. Macro revenues increased versus the prior year. The business navigated higher market volatility well, particularly in foreign exchange, where client activity increased across products relative to last year.

固定收益收入較前一年增加 26 億美元。流動交易活動的增加抵消了結構性機會的減少。宏觀收入較上年增加。該業務很好地應對了更高的市場波動，特別是在外匯領域，與去年相比，客戶在各個產品上的活動都有所增加。

Micro revenue declined slightly as tighter credit spreads limited secondary market opportunities versus the comparative period. This was partially offset by higher loan balances and an increase in securitization activity. Other revenues increased to $692 million primarily driven by realized gains on the sale of corporate loans held for sale.

由於信貸利差收緊限制了與同期相比的二級市場機會，微型收入略有下降。但貸款餘額增加和證券化活動增加部分抵消了這一影響。其他收入增加至 6.92 億美元，主要由於出售持有待售公司貸款所實現的收益。

Turning to ISG lending and provisions. In the quarter, ISG provisions were $91 million. This reflected portfolio growth alongside a more cautious outlook in response to the volatile macro backdrop in the first quarter. Net charge-offs were approximately $23 million primarily related to commercial real estate loans in the office sector, which were largely already provisioned for.

轉向 ISG 貸款和準備金。本季度，ISG 撥備為 9,100 萬美元。這反映出投資組合的成長，以及針對第一季動盪的宏觀背景採取更為謹慎的展望。淨沖銷金額約為 2,300 萬美元，主要與辦公領域的商業房地產貸款有關，這些貸款大部分已提列準備金。

Turning to wealth. The business delivered very strong results in the quarter across metrics. Revenues of $7.3 billion, reported margin of 27%, $94 billion in net new assets, and consistently strong fee-based flows of $30 billion. Retail clients remain engaged. Strong transactional activity, increased unsolicited trading, and ongoing migration into fee-based accounts demonstrate client participation and the demand for advice amid heightened volatility.

轉向財富。該業務在本季的各項指標中都取得了非常強勁的業績。營收為 73 億美元，報告利潤率為 27%，淨新資產為 940 億美元，費用流持續強勁，為 300 億美元。零售客戶依然保持參與。強勁的交易活動、不斷增加的未經請求的交易以及持續向收費帳戶的遷移表明，在波動性加劇的情況下，客戶的參與度和對建議的需求。

Client asset levels across the franchise remain strong at $6 trillion of assets. Fee-based assets were largely unchanged compared to the end of the year at $2.3 trillion, highlighting the diversified nature of the advisor-led fee-based account flows. Pre-tax profit was $2 billion and the reported PBT margin was 26.6%. The margin was negatively impacted by 174 basis points related to DCP and severance-related costs.

整個特許經營業務的客戶資產水準仍保持強勁，達到 6 兆美元。與年底的 2.3 兆美元相比，收費資產基本上沒有變化，凸顯了顧問主導的收費帳戶流動的多樣化性質。稅前利潤為 20 億美元，報告的稅前利潤率為 26.6%。利潤率受到 DCP 和遣散費相關的 174 個基點的負面影響。

Net new assets for the quarter were strong at $94 billion, representing a 6% annualized growth rate of beginning period assets. The result was supported by broad-based strength across channels, inclusive of elevated flows related to advisor-led clients, stock plan vesting events, positive recruiting trends, and self-directed clients.

本季淨新增資產表現強勁，達 940 億美元，相當於期初資產年化成長率為 6%。這一結果得到了各通路廣泛實力的支持，包括與顧問主導的客戶、股票計劃歸屬事件、積極的招聘趨勢和自主導向客戶相關的流量增加。

Asset management revenues were $4.4 billion, up 15% year over year, reflecting higher market levels and the cumulative impact of positive fee base flows. Fee-based flows remain strong at $30 billion. Two dynamics continue to play through our results. First, fee-based flows in the quarter were again supported by assets migrating from advisor-led brokerage accounts to fee-based accounts. Second, assets migrating to the advisor-led channel that originated from the Workplace channel as these relationships grow.

資產管理收入為 44 億美元，年增 15%，反映了更高的市場水準和正費用基數流的累積影響。收費資金流動仍保持強勁，達到 300 億美元。兩種動態持續影響著我們的研究結果。首先，本季收費型資金流再次受到從顧問主導的經紀帳戶轉移到收費型帳戶的資產的支持。其次，隨著這些關係的發展，資產將遷移到源自工作場所管道的顧問主導管道。

With an incremental $20 billion this quarter, adding to the roughly $300 billion accumulated from Workplace since we expanded our channel in 2020. Transactional revenues were $873 million and excluding the impact of DCP were up 13% versus the prior year. The first quarter's results were supported by higher levels of client activity, evidenced by strong daily average trades that have continued to rise despite recent uncertainty.

本季新增 200 億美元，加上我們自 2020 年擴展通路以來從 Workplace 累積的約 3,000 億美元。交易收入為 8.73 億美元，不包括 DCP 的影響，比上年增長 13%。第一季的業績受到客戶活動水準提高的支持，儘管近期存在不確定性，但強勁的日均交易量仍在持續上升。

Bank lending balances increased $3 billion quarter over quarter to $163 billion driven by balanced demand across products. During the quarter, we saw a pick-up in securities-based lending balances likely to satisfy upcoming tax obligations.

受各產品需求平衡的推動，銀行貸款餘額較上季增加 30 億美元，達到 1,630 億美元。在本季度，我們看到證券類貸款餘額有所回升，這可能是為了滿足即將到來的納稅義務。

Total deposits of $375 billion were up quarter over quarter, as demand for our savings offering was partially offset by the modest decline in sweep balances. Within sweeps, we saw clients consistently deploy cash into markets during each month of the first quarter. Overall deposit movements in the quarter were generally in line with seasonality and our expectations.

總存款額達 3,750 億美元，環比增長，因為儲蓄產品的需求被清算餘額的適度下降部分抵消。在調查中，我們發現客戶在第一季的每個月都會持續向市場投入現金。本季的整體存款變動總體符合季節性和我們的預期。

Net interest income was up modestly quarter over quarter to $1.9 billion. Looking ahead to the second quarter, we expect a seasonal decline in sweeps related to tax payments, which would result in a modest decline in NII. However, over the course of the recent two weeks, we have seen a notable increase in sweep balances exceeding our internal forecasts.

淨利息收入季增至 19 億美元。展望第二季度，我們預計與稅收相關的支出將出現季節性下降，這將導致 NII 略有下降。然而，最近兩週，我們發現清掃餘額明顯增加，超出了我們的內部預測。

While this is likely associated with recent market uncertainty, it could have offsetting impacts to the NII in the second quarter, should this continue. For the second quarter, deposit mix will remain the key driver of NII. Our wealth franchise sets the industry standard where both clients and advisors recognize the power of our platform.

雖然這可能與近期市場不確定性有關，但如果這種情況持續下去，可能會對第二季的國家資訊基礎產生抵銷影響。對於第二季來說，存款結構仍將是NII的主要驅動力。我們的財富特許經營樹立了行業標準，客戶和顧問都認可我們平台的強大功能。

Clients continue to entrust us with more of their assets, reinforcing the value they place on advice. Advisor recruitment remains strong, reflecting our reputation as an exceptional place where financial advisors can grow their businesses. Looking towards the year ahead, uncertainty has increased the value of advice and our diversified capabilities. We are confident that our business will deliver durable results throughout various market environments.

客戶繼續將更多的資產委託給我們，這增強了他們對建議的重視。顧問招募依然強勁，反映了我們作為財務顧問發展業務的卓越場所的聲譽。展望未來一年，不確定性增加了建議和我們多樣化能力的價值。我們相信，我們的業務將在各種市場環境中取得持久的成果。

Moving to investment management. Reported revenues were $1.6 billion, increasing 16% versus the prior year. Results reflected higher asset management and related fees driven by higher average AUM. Total AUM ended at $1.6 trillion. Long term net inflows were $5.4 billion in the quarter.

轉向投資管理。報告收入為 16 億美元，比上年增長 16%。績效反映平均資產管理規模增加帶動資產管理費用及相關費用增加。總資產管理規模最終達到 1.6 兆美元。本季長期淨流入為 54 億美元。

The inflows were driven primarily by Parametric and fixed income and were supported by our efforts to expand distribution of these products. Within alternatives and solutions, Parametric continues to grow as demand for customized direct indexing and tax advantage solutions remains a key source of retail client engagement.

資金流入主要由參數和固定收益驅動，並得到我們擴大這些產品分銷的努力的支持。在替代方案和解決方案領域，由於客製化直接索引和稅收優惠解決方案的需求仍然是零售客戶參與的主要來源，因此 Parametric 繼續成長。

Liquidity and Overlay services had outflows of $19 billion. These outflows were consistent with seasonal trends but were more moderate than we had previously expected. Performance-based income and other revenues were $151 million, supported by gains in several infrastructure investments.

流動性和覆蓋服務的流出量為 190 億美元。這些流出量與季節性趨勢一致，但比我們之前預期的要溫和。基於績效的收入和其他收入為 1.51 億美元，這得益於多項基礎設施投資的收益。

Turning to the balance sheet. Total spot assets were $1.3 trillion. During the period we accreted $1.9 billion of Common Equity Tier 1 capital and continued to deliver to our commitment to return capital to our shareholders, buying back $1 billion of common stock during the quarter.

轉向資產負債表。現貨資產總額為1.3兆美元。在此期間，我們累積了 19 億美元的普通股一級資本，並繼續履行向股東返還資本的承諾，在本季度回購了 10 億美元的普通股。

Standardized RWA's increased quarter over quarter, consistent with seasonal trends and active support of our clients. We ended the quarter with a standardized CET1 ratio of 15.3%, underscoring our strong capital position. Our first quarter tax rate was 21%. The lower rate was supported by share-based award conversions, which largely take place in the first quarter.

標準化 RWA 逐季度增加，與季節性趨勢和客戶的積極支持保持一致。本季末，我們的標準化 CET1 比率為 15.3%，凸顯了我們強大的資本狀況。我們第一季的稅率為21%。較低的利率是由股票獎勵轉換所支撐的，這些轉換主要發生在第一季。

This quarter's results underscore the strong and consistent performance we strive to deliver in active markets. As a trusted advisor to our broad global client base, we continue to benefit from the strength of our integrated firm. Our client-driven model combined with strong capital and liquidity, positions us to support clients as they navigate the uncertain landscape.

本季的業績凸顯了我們努力在活躍市場中實現強勁而持續的業績。作為我們廣大全球客戶群值得信賴的顧問，我們繼續受益於我們綜合公司的實力。我們以客戶為導向的模式，結合強大的資本和流動性，使我們能夠在客戶應對不確定的市場環境時為他們提供支援。

And with that, I will open the line up to questions.

現在，我將開始回答大家的提問。

We are now ready to take in questions. (Operator Instructions)

我們現在準備好回答問題。（操作員指示）

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

史蒂文‧丘巴克，沃爾夫研究中心。

Hi. Good morning and thanks for taking my questions. So Ted, I wanted to start off with one on the equities trading outlook. Just given your experience overseeing the business, the recent strength has been pretty extraordinary, and the updates from you and the peers suggests the trading has actually been pretty orderly amid the recent volatility. Now I was hoping you could just speak to the factors that might support continued durability of the recent strength and some of the variables you're monitoring that could potentially derail some of the recent momentum as well.

你好。早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。所以，泰德，我想先談談股票交易的前景。僅從您管理業務的經驗來看，最近的實力相當非凡，而且您和同事的更新表明，在最近的波動中，交易實際上相當有序。現在我希望您能談談可能支持近期強勢持續的因素，以及您正在監控的一些可能破壞近期勢頭的變數。

Steve, love your question. Great quarter. Client activity across the nine boxes, all three products, all three regions, everything clicked. We've made the investments in clients, in technology, across high touch and electronic cash, across prime brokerage, and in both the flow and derivative products and across each major region. Those are the 9 boxes -- the cash business, as you know, the prime brokerage business, and the derivatives business in each of the three regions, and they all clicked.

史蒂夫，我喜歡你的問題。很棒的一個季度。客戶活動涉及九個盒子、所有三種產品、所有三個地區，一切都很順利。我們對客戶、技術、高接觸和電子現金、大宗經紀、流通和衍生產品以及各個主要地區進行了投資。這 9 個部分分別是現金業務、主要經紀業務以及三個地區的衍生性商品業務，它們都相互關聯。

I feel really good about the business and its leadership under Alan Thomas and Gokul Laroia. They've done a hell of a job.

我對這家公司以及在 Alan Thomas 和 Gokul Laroia 領導下的這家公司的領導感到非常滿意。他們做了一件了不起的事。

It is fundamentally activity based. The bear case would be weaker economy, weaker sentiment, i.e., the animal spirits go into hibernation. That would be constant with lower prices, negative manager performance, and that brings lower transaction levels, lower leverage levels, lower new issue activity. But that's not where we are.

它從根本上是基於活動的。悲觀的情況是經濟疲軟，情緒疲軟，即動物精神進入冬眠。這將伴隨較低的價格、負面的管理者業績，並帶來較低的交易水平、較低的槓桿水平、較低的新發行活動。但我們現在的情況並非如此。

The markets are off, but clients remain much engaged. High volumes in every region. We have big market share in Asia as you know, high two-way market views as we're living through over the last number of days, and a new issue market that may pause, but it's still on pipeline.

市場雖然低迷，但顧客仍十分活躍。每個地區的銷量都很高。如您所知，我們在亞洲擁有很大的市場份額，過去幾天我們經歷了高度雙向的市場觀點，新發行市場可能會暫停，但仍在籌備中。

So the upshot is that $4 billion is a very big number, but the run rate has been higher than what we've seen a couple of years ago. And it makes sense as we continue to consolidate share. We're clearly continuing to take share with the right technology, the right mix of client business, the right focus on returns around the world. So it's a winner, and insofar as we don't go risk-off, it'll continue to be a winner. And I'm super proud of the team.

因此，結果是 40 億美元是一個非常大的數字，但運行率高於我們幾年前看到的水平。隨著我們繼續鞏固市場份額，這是有道理的。我們顯然將繼續憑藉正確的技術、正確的客戶業務組合以及對全球回報的正確關注來搶佔市場份額。所以它是一個贏家，只要我們不規避風險，它就會繼續成為贏家。我為這個團隊感到非常自豪。

No, thanks for that perspective, Ted. And maybe for my follow-up for Sharon, just on the NNA outlook. So the flows were certainly more durable than we and others had anticipated. The market deterioration admittedly was a bit more back-end-loaded and it has accelerated into April. So I was hoping you could speak to the durability of the NNA strength just given some of the negative marks we've seen in both fixed income and equities.

不，謝謝你的觀點，泰德。也許我會跟進 Sharon 的後續情況，討論 NNA 的前景。因此，這些流動肯定比我們和其他人預期的要持久得多。不可否認的是，市場惡化在後端有所加劇，並且進入 4 月已經加速。因此，鑑於我們在固定收益和股票領域看到的一些負面跡象，我希望您能談談 NNA 實力的持久性。

And you noted cash has been much more resilient in April, but I was hoping you could also speak to what you are seeing across lending and margin, particularly margin, which is more equity or beta sensitive.

您指出，四月現金的彈性要大得多，但我希望您也可以談談貸款和保證金方面的情況，特別是保證金，它對股權或貝塔係數更為敏感。

Sure. So let me start first by the NNA, because I think the story there is actually really encouraging when you look under the hood. As you know, we have three channels. We have workplace; we have self-directed; and we have adviser-led.

當然。那麼讓我先從 NNA 開始，因為我認為當你深入了解時，那裡的故事實際上真的令人鼓舞。如您所知，我們有三個管道。我們有工作場所；我們有自我導向；我們由顧問主導。

Last year, if you compare it a year ago and I know it was a strong first quarter last year, but we talked about individualized flows in the first quarter of last year. We didn't discuss that here, because it was a much more broad-based. We had a year-over-year growth in each of those three segments, so stock plan was an increase.

去年，如果與一年前相比，我知道去年第一季表現強勁，但我們討論的是去年第一季的個人化流量。我們沒有在這裡討論這個問題，因為它涉及的範圍更為廣泛。這三個部門都實現了同比增長，因此庫存計劃也有所增加。

On the self-directed side, we have been investing, and you can see it even in our expense numbers. On our marketing and our investment in our self-directed platform, there has been an increase in the assets that we're seeing in that platform, which is encouraging on the back of those investments. And on the adviser-led side, it's multiple clients and multiple different sections that you're actually seeing those flows come in, and we're also seeing flows from the recruiting side. So all of that, in my mind, is quite encouraging that we're seeing the benefits of the investments that we've been making into that platform over multiple years including even the most recent last year.

在自主經營方面，我們一直在投資，你甚至可以從我們的支出數字中看到這一點。在我們的行銷和對自主導向平台的投資方面，我們看到該平台上的資產增加，這對這些投資來說是令人鼓舞的。在顧問主導的方面，您實際上可以看到來自多個客戶和多個不同部門的流量，而且我們也看到來自招聘方面的流量。因此，在我看來，所有這些都非常令人鼓舞，我們看到了多年來對該平台的投資（包括最近的去年）所帶來的回報。

As it relates specifically to the cash and the stocks that you've mentioned in terms of the SBLs, I was encouraged by the SBL lending lines that we saw and the growth over the course of the first quarter. If you look back over the course of the last two years or so, there's been more muted growth, especially going into taxes.

由於它與您在 SBL 方面提到的現金和股票具體相關，因此，我們看到的 SBL 貸款額度和第一季的成長令我感到鼓舞。如果你回顧過去兩年左右的時間，你會發現經濟成長更加緩慢，尤其是在稅收方面。

Historically, we have seen individuals using their BDP specifically for paying those taxes or money market cash. The fact that we've seen an increase in SBL, which I mentioned in my prepare remarks ahead of tax season, I think, is encouraging that we have reached, at least from a transactional level, what could be an equilibrium. And in periods of, say, a risk-off, et cetera, you might actually begin to see increases in those balances, which I noticed that we had seen higher than expected levels over the course of these last two weeks.

從歷史上看，我們看到個人使用 BDP 專門用於繳納稅款或貨幣市場現金。事實上，我們已經看到了 SBL 的成長，我在納稅季節前的準備演講中提到了這一點，我認為，令人鼓舞的是，至少從交易層面來看，我們已經達到了一種平衡。而在風險規避等時期，你實際上可能會開始看到這些餘額的增加，我注意到，在過去兩週內，我們看到的餘額高於預期。

Christian Bolu, Autonomous Research.

克里斯蒂安·博魯（Christian Bolu），自主研究。

So to follow up on Steven's question around maybe more broadly on trading, just exceptional results here. Clearly, the markets are very volatile, and that volatility has stepped up in April. So maybe talk about how you're managing risk. And then, are you taking down exposures or are you still playing offense? And any then, sort of color on prime brokerage balances in April and what you're seeing from hedge fund clients.

因此，為了跟進史蒂文關於交易的更廣泛問題，這裡只是取得了出色的成果。顯然，市場非常不穩定，而且四月波動性加劇。那麼也許可以談談你如何管理風險。那麼，你是在減少曝光還是仍在採取進攻措施？無論如何，四月主要經紀業務餘額的情況以及您從對沖基金客戶那裡看到的情況如何。

Well, broadly, the first quarter flows into the second quarter. There is a lot of client interaction, and the animal spirits are still there insofar as folks are trying to not get caught offside. So there's natural volatility that we're seeing, as I mentioned in the opening remarks, in every space and within equity. So the basic market-making function, which is the bread and butter of the cash business of both voice and electronic continues to be a very strong.

嗯，整體來說，第一季延續到了第二季。客戶之間有很多互動，只要人們努力不越位，動物精神就仍然存在。因此，正如我在開場白中提到的那樣，我們看到在各個領域和股票領域都存在著自然的波動。因此，基本的做市功能，即語音和電子現金業務的支柱，仍然非常強大。

You're speaking to the prime brokerage business; there we continue to be a leader. And sure, if clients begin to go negative or they need to de-lever well by definition, lower balances are the result -- which results over time in lower P&L. But much of the client base, Christian, as you know, most folks are closer to the zero barrier than they are a number that is well off of that. So they have a lot to play for and given the swings and given the intellectual capital that exists with the asset management community, they're going to look to continue to engage.

您正在談論的是大宗經紀業務；我們將繼續保持領先地位。當然，如果客戶開始出現負數，或者他們需要按照定義很好地降低槓桿率，那麼結果就是餘額減少——隨著時間的推移，這會導致損益降低。但是，正如你所知，克里斯蒂安，對於大部分客戶群來說，大多數人都更接近零障礙，而不是遠離零障礙的數字。因此，他們有很多事情要做，考慮到資產管理界的波動和智力資本，他們會尋求繼續參與。

There's plenty of stock dispersion that manifests itself in the derivatives markets as you know, lots of ways to play across asset macro. So that brings together our equities and fixed income folks to put together a structured product. So there's lots of reason to think that the equities business and the markets business generally will continue to be active.

如你所知，衍生性商品市場中存在大量的股票分散現象，有很多方法可以跨資產宏觀進行操作。這樣，我們的股票和固定收益人員就可以聚集在一起，打造出結構化產品。因此，我們有充分的理由認為股票業務和市場業務將整體繼續活躍。

The question over time will be at what point does the uncertainty result in a knockout of the new issue business, and volumes will slow on the back of just a continued sense of uncertainty. And you see then gap year markets and lower volumes, but we're not seeing that. There is plenty of market-making going on.

隨著時間的推移，問題將是，不確定性何時會導致新發行業務的崩潰，而由於持續的不確定性，交易量將會放緩。然後你會看到間隔年市場和交易量下降，但我們沒有看到這種情況。目前有大量的市場活動正在進行中。

The first quarter, of course, is typically a seasonal winner across the Street, because clients need to initially allocate. But they continue to allocate. So I'm feeling good about that, broadly, and I think our own experience has been one where things have been orderly. We've been working with clients non-stop. And for all of the concerns about what could come down the road in the real economy, the market-making and the ability to transact to clients as they up and down their leverage levels has been very orderly. So engagement is key here and engagement continues.

當然，第一季通常是華爾街的季節性贏家，因為客戶需要初步分配。但他們仍在繼續分配。所以整體來說我對此感覺很好，而且我認為我們自己的經驗是一切井然有序的。我們一直不停地與客戶合作。儘管人們對實體經濟未來可能出現的情況感到擔憂，但隨著客戶槓桿水平的上升和下降，做市和交易能力一直非常有序。因此，參與是關鍵，參與將繼續下去。

Very helpful. Maybe a question on Asia, and kudos to the team for doing a good job on building our strength across regions, particularly in Asia. I'm guessing a lot of that is Japan and the MUFG partnership. But bigger picture, if we are deglobalizing and there is a decoupling of US from Asia broadly, how do you think about the prospects of your international business?

非常有幫助。也許這是一個關於亞洲的問題，我要向團隊表示敬意，感謝他們在各個地區，特別是在亞洲，並出色地建立了我們的實力。我猜測這很大程度上是日本和三菱日聯金融集團的合作。但從更大的角度來看，如果我們正在去全球化並且美國與亞洲全面脫鉤，您如何看待國際業務的前景？

Bullish. The power of a global business is to -- I hate the cliche -- sort of HBR cliche here -- but think global, act local. And I think that has application in our Asia business broadly, across the investment management and wealth -- high net worth wealth businesses, which have had a great run here in Hong Kong, but then importantly, the institutional securities business, which is actually about 15% of our firm revenues this past quarter and was up 35% year over year.

看漲。全球企業的力量在於——我討厭陳腔濫調——有點像《哈佛商業評論》的陳腔濫調——而是要放眼全球，立足本地。我認為這在我們亞洲業務中有著廣泛的應用，涵蓋投資管理和財富——高淨值財富業務，這些業務在香港表現良好，但更重要的是，機構證券業務實際上占我們公司上個季度收入的 15% 左右，同比增長 35%。

So real strength -- we have something special, Christian, with our friends and partners in Tokyo. We will have our next Board meeting in Tokyo, in fact, a business summit with the leadership in Japan. So we intend on continuing to expand that extraordinary partnership with MUFG. That is a multi-decade play, we hope, both in the institutional context and in the wealth context.

所以真正的實力——克里斯蒂安，我們與東京的朋友和合作夥伴有著一些特別的東西。我們的下一次董事會會議將在東京舉行，事實上，這是一次與日本領導層的商業高峰會。因此，我們打算繼續擴大與三菱日聯金融集團的非凡合作關係。我們希望，無論從制度背景或是財富背景來看，這都是一場持續數十年的遊戲。

We have a significant business in India. That is a place where we have the better part of 12,000 people, and we will continue to build our capability both as an infrastructure matter but also as a securities matter.

我們在印度有重要的業務。我們在那裡擁有超過 12,000 名員工，我們將繼續建立我們在基礎設施和安全方面的能力。

And then, Greater China, we have 2,500 people out of Hong Kong out of the 17,500 people that we have in Asia. So taking a step back, we have 80,000 people to firm, 17,500 of them are in Asia. So this is existential to what we do, and 2,500 of those people are in Hong Kong.

然後是大中華區，我們在亞洲擁有 17,500 名員工，其中有 2,500 名來自香港。退一步來說，我們有 8 萬名員工，其中 17,500 人在亞洲。這對我們的工作至關重要，其中 2,500 人在香港。

We're not a big corporate lender on-shore in China, but we interact via Hong Kong actively. And we continue to be a leader both in the investment banking business and in the markets business in recent quarters, clearly, in equities, where clients want to get access to the Mainland and to that second-largest economy and stock market and liquidity center in the world. And we continue to be a point of market access and interaction.

我們不是中國境內的大型企業貸款機構，但我們透過香港積極互動。近幾個季度以來，我們在投資銀行業務和市場業務方面繼續保持領先地位，尤其是在股票市場，客戶希望進入中國大陸以及世界第二大經濟體、股票市場和流動性中心。我們將繼續成為市場准入和互動的點。

We pay attention to it, Christian, as you can imagine, actively, day and night, because things constantly move around. But we're feeling really good about our continued engagement with the client base locally based but also on a global basis. And I think when we look back at this period 10, 15 years from now, when you and I are having this chat, we will see a Morgan Stanley that indeed has a significant international business.

克里斯蒂安，正如你所想像的，我們日夜積極地關注著它，因為事物總是在不斷變化。但我們對於繼續與本地和全球客戶群保持合作感到非常高興。我認為，當我們10年或15年後回顧這段時期時，當你和我進行這次談話時，我們會看到摩根士丹利確實擁有重要的國際業務。

I could spend 5 minutes talking about our business in Europe. I will simply say that we've continued to invest both in the UK and on the continent. We are a determined player to be part of the next global order both in the wealth and investment management business, but really in the global institutional securities business.

我可以花 5 分鐘談談我們在歐洲的業務。我只想說，我們一直在英國和歐洲大陸進行投資。我們決心成為財富和投資管理業務，尤其是全球機構證券業務的新一輪全球秩序的一部分。

As you know, Christian, one of the realities of financial repression was that the cost of running a global investment bank was pretty tough to make the return on capital, if not very tough. So to have gotten here now with the kind of bankers and markets folks and infrastructure through all of the panoply of regulation throughout Europe and internationally to get to this point now where we can slowly take share, to durably take share, you saw that we put into the firm-wide goals to durably increase share across the investment bank.

克里斯蒂安，如你所知，金融抑制的現實之一是，經營全球投資銀行的成本相當高，很難獲得資本回報，甚至非常困難。因此，現在我們擁有了這樣的銀行家、市場人員和基礎設施，能夠通過歐洲和國際上的所有監管措施，達到我們可以慢慢佔領市場份額、持久佔領市場份額的地步，您會看到，我們把持久增加整個投資銀行的份額作為全公司的目標。

That is not a quarter or even year phenomenon. That is a multi-year phenomenon, where we think that there will be, of course, national champions, but there will be several global winners that are able to transact in the businesses where we do real well, which is trusted adviser on M&A trades, on underwritings, and then importantly market-making and then flow through to net worth, where it exists principally in the US.

這不是一個季度甚至一年的現象。這是一個持續多年的現象，我們認為當然會出現國家冠軍，但也會有幾個全球贏家能夠在我們真正擅長的業務中進行交易，這是我們在併購交易、承銷以及重要的做市方面值得信賴的顧問，然後流入淨值，主要存在於美國。

So I am really quite bullish on our international business, and we will navigate the next number of months and quarters with care. But the determination is a long-term matter, is not only undaunted, but we will push forward.

因此，我對我們的國際業務非常看好，我們將謹慎地度過接下來的幾個月和幾個季度。但決心是長期的事情，我們不僅會無所畏懼，而且會繼續前進。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Hey, good morning. I guess maybe, Ted -- so maybe it's just me, but you sound fairly constructive given what we've come through over the last month, your comments on -- both on the trading side and how clients have behaved and what we've seen in wealth. It doesn't seem to be the case that we've seen a marked deterioration in the last week or the last couple of weeks relative to super strength earlier in the quarter. Is that a fair assessment? I don't want to put words in your mouth, but it goes to the fact that if that's the case, the business is a lot more resilient than investors probably give credit for.

嘿，早安。我想也許吧，泰德——也許只是我的看法，但考慮到我們上個月所經歷的情況，你的評論聽起來相當有建設性——包括交易方面、客戶的行為以及我們在財富方面所看到的情況。與本季早些時候的超強實力相比，我們似乎並沒有看到上週或過去幾週出現明顯的惡化。這是一個公平的評價嗎？我不想替你說話，但事實是，如果情況確實如此，那麼該業務的彈性要比投資者認為的要大得多。

So just want to make sure we're thinking about it in the right way. You mentioned things about like if folks go into hibernation, et cetera -- I'm surprised that they haven't already. So just want to make sure so far given all what we've seen in the market, you've not really felt any negative adverse impacts on trading or on the wealth side.

所以只是想確保我們以正確的方式思考這個問題。您提到了人們是否進入冬眠狀態等情況——我很驚訝他們還沒有這樣做。因此，我們只想確保，到目前為止，鑑於我們在市場上看到的所有情況，您並沒有真正感受到對交易或財富的任何負面不利影響。

Well, fundamentally, the banking pipeline hasn't changed. Some clients are naturally going to pause; they've hit the pause button. And others are a go. And there is -- as you spend time looking at sponsor and corporate activity, there are financial sponsors buying and selling as we speak. Honeywell, Warburg Pincus, buyer; Clearlake, Dun & Bradstreet. So there are sponsors buying and selling assets.

嗯，從根本上來說，銀行通路並沒有改變。有些客戶會自然地暫停；他們按下了暫停鍵。其他人也都這麼做。而且──當你花時間觀察贊助商和企業活動時，你會發現金融贊助商正在買賣股票。霍尼韋爾，華平投資，買家； Clearlake、鄧白氏。因此有贊助商買賣資產。

So they will continue to play as will corporates. It's just going to have to be against the reality of this uncertainty. If the uncertainty can be navigated and priced into the market, there is progress on these complicated issue, then folks, I imagine, will respond to that and factor it in as part of their execution risk formula.

因此他們將繼續發揮作用，就像企業一樣。這只是要對抗這種不確定性的現實。如果不確定性能夠控制並反映在市場價格中，這些複雜問題就會取得進展，那麼我想人們就會對此做出反應，並將其作為執行風險公式的一部分。

Now, clearly, if we go risk-off, which is to say things really become so unpredictable that you don't know where a stock price is going to be within 10% or 20%, you don't know where an FX cost is going to be within 5% or 10% and so on with interest rates, well, by definition then activity will stop. I mean that is just the definition of risk-off, as you know.

現在，顯然，如果我們規避風險，也就是說事情真的變得如此難以預測，你不知道股票價格將在 10% 或 20% 以內波動，你不知道外匯成本將在 5% 或 10% 以內波動，等等，那麼，根據定義，活動將會停止。我的意思是，如你所知，這只是避險的定義。

But insofar as there is still -- we are early here, and we're talking about the rearchitecting of industrial policy in the context of America's place in the world and where it wants to be decades from now, that is weighty stuff, but it may well be that that takes some time for some of the bilateral negotiations. But in other contexts, actually, some deals are put on the table, in which case, people are going to want to move forward because it is our view that the underwriting and M&A pipeline, streetwide, by the way -- it's not a Morgan Stanley phenomenon. This is -- the leadership of that product area is ready to go.

但就目前而言——我們目前還處於早期階段，我們正在根據美國在世界上的地位以及它希望幾十年後達到的目標來討論重新制定產業政策，這是一項重大任務，但對於一些雙邊談判來說，這很可能需要一些時間。但在其他情況下，實際上，一些交易已經擺上了檯面，在這種情況下，人們會想要繼續推進，因為我們認為，承銷和併購管道，順便說一下，在整個華爾街範圍內——這不是摩根士丹利的現象。這是——該產品領域的領導層已經準備就緒。

And if windows open, whether those windows are open over a weekend or for a week or in fact for quarters, or there's a sense that in fact there's relief because we get through this period and we get towards the next two pillars tax and de-reg, I can see clients continuing to move. And we will continue to prosecute business.

如果窗口打開，無論這些窗口是周末打開還是一周打開還是實際上是幾個季度打開，或者感覺實際上有緩解，因為我們度過了這個時期，並且我們正朝著下兩個支柱稅收和取消管制邁進，我可以看到客戶繼續前進。我們將繼續開展業務。

So that's the long answer. The short answer is in the opening of the quarter, we have not seen a slowdown. Is it bumpier for some clients? Of course, it is, and we have to see how they respond to that over the course of the weeks and months to come, but we are still -- we'll call it cautiously optimistic that we won't go into recession, and we'll just keep going.

這就是長答案。簡而言之，在本季初，我們並未看到經濟放緩。對某些客戶來說，情況是否比較坎坷？當然，我們必須看看他們在未來幾週和幾個月內對此作何反應，但我們仍然——我們會謹慎樂觀地認為我們不會陷入衰退，我們會繼續前進。

That's helpful color. Thank you. And maybe, Sharon, for you, there's obviously a lot of discussion around changes to the SLR ratio. Just remind us how impactful could that be for how you manage the balance sheet and just how you manage the business. Is it a needle mover standalone, or how do you think about that? Thank you.

這是很有幫助的顏色。謝謝。莎倫，也許對你來說，顯然有很多關於 SLR 比率變化的討論。只要提醒我們，這對您如何管理資產負債表以及如何管理業務會產生多大的影響。它是獨立的針頭推動器嗎，或者您如何看待它？謝謝。

Yeah. So I think that it's hard to -- I wouldn't take SLR only in isolation. I will answer your question directly first, but I will give you a little bit of more holistic answer, which is SLR has been -- over various quarters are binding constraint. And so certainly if there's SLR reform, then we will move into a CET1 constrained world, and that provides us with additional opportunities as you think about capital deployment.

是的。所以我認為這很難——我不會孤立地看待 SLR。我先直接回答你的問題，但我會給你一個更全面的答案，那就是 SLR 一直以來——在各個方面都是具有約束力的。因此，如果進行 SLR 改革，那麼我們將進入一個受 CET1 約束的世界，這將為我們在考慮資本部署時提供更多機會。

That being said, it depends on what SLR reform you see, right? Whether or not it's simply just to allow certain things like treasuries into the denominator, how you think about that or whether there's a more wholesale understanding that SLR should not be -- it should certainly be just a backstop and not a binding constraint for an institution.

話雖如此，這取決於您看到什麼樣的 SLR 改革，對嗎？無論是否只是允許某些東西（例如國債）進入分母，您如何看待這個問題，或者是否有更全面的理解，即 SLR 不應該是——它肯定應該只是一種後盾，而不是對機構的約束。

What we feel is probably more than SLR specifically is just to look at the entire capital regime. So when you think about the interplay between GSIB, between SLR, and between the various CET1 metrics, that is the type of reform one should look at, because they actually don't play necessarily that well together given that there have been incremental changes simply to one metric versus the other. So from our perspective, one should be looking at everything holistically. But yes, obviously, we do welcome a regulatory reform, and we welcome reform to the SLR ratio.

我們覺得可能比 SLR 更具體的事情是看看整個資本製度。因此，當您考慮 GSIB、SLR 和各種 CET1 指標之間的相互作用時，這就是我們應該關注的改革類型，因為考慮到僅對一個指標相對於另一個指標進行了漸進式更改，它們實際上並不一定能很好地協同工作。因此從我們的角度來看，我們應該全面地看待一切事物。但是，顯然，我們確實歡迎監管改革，我們也歡迎對 SLR 比率進行改革。

SLR becomes part of the mechanism potentially for some of the relief here broadly. It may or may not happen, but to Sharon's point, I think that what we are interested in here and as an industry, is SLR reform in the context of the panoply of regulation that we have endured. Whether it's a GSIB or CCAR, LCR, Basel III Endgame, the entire panoply of acronyms, the SLR reform might be part of the cocktail in the short term, but really we would look for reform broadly, and we're much prepared for that.

SLR 將成為該機制的一部分，可能在很大程度上緩解這一問題。這有可能發生，也可能不會發生，但正如 Sharon 所說，我認為我們作為一個行業所感興趣的是，在我們所經歷的一系列監管背景下的 SLR 改革。無論是 GSIB 還是 CCAR、LCR、巴塞爾協議 III 終局，所有這些縮略詞，SLR 改革可能只是短期內改革的一部分，但實際上我們會廣泛尋求改革，我們已經為此做好了充分的準備。

And again, Ebrahim, just to sort of put an emphasis on this, we can't make a call on where the markets are going to be a week from now. I mean that would be absurd for us to know that. So in a sense there is increased uncertainty -- so any strategic transaction is by definition going to get a harder look.

易卜拉欣，我再強調一下，我們無法預測一週後市場將會如何。我的意思是，如果我們知道這一點，那就太荒謬了。因此從某種意義上來說，不確定性增加了——因此任何戰略交易都必然會受到更嚴格的審查。

What I'm trying to underscore here, though, is that largely what we're seeing is some folks still going, but the others, pausing. They're not deleting; they're pausing. So yes, that could result in some of the IPO stack moving out of quarter two. It could be that some M&A activity moves out a stack or two, but this is not a question of people rethinking their priorities around technology, energy, competitive dynamics within their industries.

不過，我在這裡想要強調的是，我們看到的情況基本上是，有些人仍在繼續，而其他人則暫停了。他們沒有刪除；他們正在暫停。所以是的，這可能會導致部分 IPO 股票在第二季退出。一些併購活動可能會帶來一兩個變化，但這並不是人們重新考慮其在技術、能源、產業競爭動態方面的優先事項的問題。

So that is why we continue to push forward on this theme that we are going to be in an investment banking cycle. And the fact that the market's business continues to be as active as it is, is a pretty good ballast against that within ISG.

這就是為什麼我們繼續推進這個主題，即我們將進入投資銀行週期。事實上，市場業務持續活躍，這對 ISG 內部而言是一個相當好的平衡點。

Dan Fannon, Jefferies.

丹‧範農 (Dan Fannon)，傑富瑞集團。

Good morning. Question on just the adviser business. In the market backdrop like this with the last few weeks in terms of volatility, what does that mean for recruitment and retention trends? And also, does that change the appetite for fee-based flows as you think about going forward and your goals around increasing that metric?

早安.僅關於顧問業務的問題。在過去幾週市場波動的背景下，這對招募和留任趨勢意味著什麼？此外，當您考慮未來發展以及提高該指標的目標時，這是否會改變對基於費用的流量的興趣？

Well, people are coming to the platform. Jed Finn and Vince Lumia's lights are blinking, as in their phone lights, non-stop. Folks want to come onto this platform. And that is, in part, because the funnel works. We're investing in E*TRADE, the self-directed channel is very busy. Sharon, at length, has talked about, as have I, the Workplace product, where we added another $20 billion. You see the progress in fee-based flows.

嗯，人們正在走向平台。傑德芬恩 (Jed Finn) 和文斯盧米亞 (Vince Lumia) 的燈光不停地閃爍，就像他們的手機燈一樣。人們想來到這個平台。部分原因是因為漏斗起作用了。我們正在投資E*TRADE，自主導向管道非常繁忙。莎倫和我都詳細討論了 Workplace 產品，我們透過該產品又增加了 200 億美元。您會看到基於費用的流程的進度。

But ultimately, when you get to the top of the funnel, it is about the financial advisor. And the financial advisor seeing the Integrated Firm for what it is, which is we can offer unique access to intellectual capital, world-class technology, compensation that is viewed to be fair and motivating, and the entire thing works. And so what's happening is we are selective about it, but it is fair to say that Jed and Vince are getting a lot of inbound inquiry, and we would expect that to continue.

但最終，當你到達漏斗頂端時，你需要諮詢財務顧問。財務顧問了解綜合公司的本質，即我們可以提供獨特的智力資本、世界一流的技術、公平且激勵的薪酬，並且整個系統都是有效的。因此，我們對此有所選擇，但公平地說，傑德和文斯收到了很多來電詢問，我們預計這種情況會繼續下去。

Great. And then just as a follow-up sticking with wealth, the opportunity for alternatives in the wealth channel is clearly a focus for the large alternative managers. Can you talk about your own proprietary alternative products that you might be able to sell within this channel, or is that something you could think about inorganically wanting to get bigger in terms of your own proprietary products?

偉大的。然後，作為對財富的後續關注，財富管道中的替代機會顯然是大型替代管理者關注的重點。您能否談談您可能能夠透過該管道銷售的自己的專有替代產品，或者您可以考慮在自己的專有產品方面無機地擴大規模？

Sure. So I'd note for the wealth management platform, we have over $200 billion of private alternatives. It's about -- if you take that into perspective in terms of what the qualified assets are, we have about 5% of the qualified assets in our system are in those private alternatives. Now that compares to your point where our GIC, where our global investment committee, the recommendation is closer to 15% for those qualified investors. So there certainly is opportunity there.

當然。因此，我要指出的是，對於財富管理平台，我們有超過 2000 億美元的私人替代品。這是關於——如果你從合格資產的角度來考慮，我們系統中大約有 5% 的合格資產屬於這些私人替代品。現在，與您所說我們的 GIC（即我們的全球投資委員會）對合格投資者的建議接近 15%。所以那裡肯定有機會。

We're working on products from our perspective as well as obviously others are doing it, but we are looking also at places to help fill these gaps and to help you provide a more democratized offering. So it's certainly a focus. It's something that you'll see come through, and we think that there's great opportunity there for us and more broadly, just for those alternatives across the platform to go to our retail client base.

我們正在從自己的角度開發產品，顯然其他人也在這樣做，但我們也在尋找可以幫助填補這些空白並幫助您提供更民主化的產品的地方。所以這當然是一個焦點。這是您將會看到的事情，我們認為這對我們來說是一個巨大的機會，從更廣泛的角度來看，只需透過平台上的這些替代方案就可以接觸到我們的零售客戶群。

Glenn Schorr, Evercore.

格倫·肖爾（Glenn Schorr），Evercore。

Good morning. So we've all applauded all the great trading, which is actually awesome. I'm very curious; when you guys are going through the pretty draconian stress tests, the stress test will always spit out pretty bad answers for what any big investment bank does on the trading side. You're doing literally the opposite of that right now.

早安.因此，我們都對所有出色的交易表示讚賞，這確實很棒。我很好奇；當你們經歷相當嚴格的壓力測試時，壓力測試總是會對任何大型投資銀行在交易方面所做的事情給出相當糟糕的答案。你現在做的恰恰相反。

So I'm curious, when you look at the composition of those tests, and then you look at the reality of how you perform -- and I know it's not like every day, and you can't predict the future -- but I'm curious on what's different about the setup, how you might suggest tweaking it, because I know every June when we go through the results, they're way different than reality.

所以我很好奇，當你查看這些測試的組成，然後查看你的實際表現時——我知道這不是每天都會發生的，你無法預測未來——但我很好奇這個設置有什麼不同，你可能會建議如何調整它，因為我知道每年六月當我們查看結果時，它們都與實際情況大不相同。

So in terms of the underlying stress test, you're obviously going to pick different portions of the -- what that environment would be. What we do versus what the Fed does for our own individual stress tests will be different. We will test ourselves on where we think that we would have the most vulnerabilities. I think that the challenge is that when you look at the underlying test is really the uncertainty and the build on build of both previous years and the fact that you're -- if you think about the way -- and we've said this publicly, if you think about the way that these test results come out is you're giving something more along the lines of in June, and you're moving forward to having to execute them in October.

因此，就底層壓力測試而言，你顯然會選擇不同的部分——那個環境是什麼樣的。我們所做的與聯準會為我們自己的個人壓力測試所做的將會有所不同。我們將針對我們認為最容易受到攻擊的地方進行自我測試。我認為挑戰在於，當你看底層測試時，實際上存在著不確定性和前幾年的積累，事實上——如果你考慮一下——我們已經公開說過這一點，如果你考慮一下這些測試結果的出爐方式，你會發現你在 6 月份給出了更多的東西，而你必須在 10 月份執行它們。

There's also very limited amounts where when you think about test from an industry perspective that looks at each of how the individual companies do. So it's a blanket exam rather than when we look at our own stress test, it's modeled towards our businesses and things that necessarily make sense for us and what our clients do and what we see.

當你從行業角度考慮測試時，查看每個公司的表現，數量也非常有限。因此，這是一項綜合考試，而不是我們自己的壓力測試，它是針對我們的業務和對我們有意義的事情以及我們的客戶所做的事情和我們所看到的事情進行建模的。

So I think that -- the Fed has obviously said that they're interested in providing us with those models. It's challenging for me to say how would I change their models without seeing their models, but what we -- I think as an industry we agree on is that the models themselves are done from a very holistic, perspective. And something as simple as the way that expenses are allocated, right?

所以我認為——聯準會顯然表示他們有興趣向我們提供這些模型。對我來說，在不看他們的模型的情況下，我很難說我該如何改變他們的模型，但我認為，作為一個行業，我們一致認為，模型本身是從一個非常全面的角度完成的。還有像費用分配方式這樣簡單的事情，對嗎？

It's not just -- I wouldn't look at it just from the perspective, okay, what you're doing differently from a trading perspective, Glenn. But it's really about the architecture of both the sense of what you think of the GMS stress and then how you think of it over nine quarters afterwards. So there's many layers to your question where I think, yes, in a period of stress you can have different environments. But there's a blanket envelope that the Fed is giving us that I think needs to be really looked at more -- in more detail and more rigor, and what's actually done from an industry perspective or an underlying company perspective.

這不僅僅是——我不會僅僅從交易的角度來看待這個問題，好吧，格倫，你從交易角度做了什麼不同的事情。但它實際上與你對 GMS 壓力的看法以及你對之後九個季度的看法的架構有關。所以你的問題有很多層次，我認為，是的，在壓力時期，你可能會有不同的環境。但我認為，聯準會給予我們的是一個整體方案，需要我們進行更深入、更詳細、更嚴格的審查，以及從產業角度或底層公司角度實際採取的措施。

But you're right, Glenn. We've gained share while still observing everything Sharon just described and buffers on top of that. So it's a lot of work for folks on the ground, because, of course, a part of the Morgan Stanley durability story is one where we have excess capital, financial strength, and liquidity. So that has been the headline in boldface letters. And folks in every business are well aware of that, and the risk adjusted capital that needs to be applied across businesses and across clients. And nonetheless, folks have gained share.

但你是對的，格倫。我們在獲得市場份額的同時，仍然觀察著 Sharon 剛才所描述的一切以及在此基礎上的緩衝。因此，這對基層人員來說是一項艱鉅的工作，因為摩根士丹利持久性故事的一部分當然是我們擁有過剩的資本、財務實力和流動性。這就是用粗體字寫的標題。每個企業的人們都很清楚這一點，並且需要將風險調整資本應用於各個企業和客戶。儘管如此，人們的份額還是增加了。

So for me and for Sharon, for the team, what is important here is this idea of durably gaining shares. Given the high cost of running these businesses, you should be able to achieve operating leverage when the environments are strong and when the environments are choppier that you at least can make your cost of capital. That should be the bid ask, and that is the way we're continuing to think about the market's business and now doing so with excess capital, by any measure.

因此，對我、對莎倫以及對團隊來說，重要的是持久地獲得份額的想法。考慮到經營這些業務的成本很高，當環境強勁時，你應該能夠實現經營槓桿，而當環境動盪時，你至少可以收回資本成本。這應該是買賣價差，這就是我們繼續思考市場業務的方式，現在無論以何種標準衡量，我們都在利用過剩資本來這樣做。

Thank you for all that. I have a much more answerable question for a follow-up and relates to just lending in general. What did you take the reserve on? I know it's small. Is that as of 3/31 or is that as of kind of now? And then, what did you sell to [produce the] gain in other revenue? Just curious on those moving parts.

謝謝你所做的一切。我有一個更容易回答的後續問題，並且與一般的貸款有關。你拿什麼來儲備？我知道它很小。這是截至 3 月 31 日還是截至現在？那麼，您賣了什麼東西來產生其他收入呢？只是對這些活動部件感到好奇。

Sure. Just from the provisions perspective, it's as of 3/31, where basically, for us, when you're looking at the metric, the quantitative metric that's most important for us from a CECL perspective is GDP. We do disclose that. At the end of the fourth quarter, we had GDP of 1.9 was the expectation for the end of 2025, and that moved down to 1.5. So that's included in terms of what we've taken. Obviously, should there be changes, there will be changes as you move forward from a provisions perspective in the second quarter.

當然。僅從準備金的角度來看，截至 3 月 31 日，基本上，對我們來說，當你查看指標時，從 CECL 角度來看對我們來說最重要的定量指標是 GDP。我們確實披露了這一點。在第四季末，我們對 2025 年底的 GDP 預期為 1.9，但數字已降至 1.5。這就包括了我們所採取的措施。顯然，如果有變化，那麼從第二季的規定角度來看，就會有變化。

You then asked about other and how you think about the movement in those held for sale names. Obviously, we do have a number of names that we run a portfolio business. And we were focused very much on velocity.

然後您詢問了其他問題，以及您如何看待那些待售名稱的變更。顯然，我們確實經營著一些投資組合業務。我們非常注重速度。

We've talked a lot about window-driven environments. We had a window-driven environment in periods of the first quarter. We were able to move and take advantage of things for syndication. And what we did is we basically cleared a lot of our chunkier positions, and you'll see that flow through that other line item.

我們已經討論了很多關於視窗驅動環境的內容。在第一季期間，我們處於窗口驅動的環境。我們能夠採取行動並利用一切機會進行聯合。我們所做的基本上就是清理了很多較大的部位，你會看到這些部位流經其他項目。

And what that means, of course, is that we, all things being equal, have now capacity in the event book.

當然，這意味著，在其他條件相同的情況下，我們現在在事件簿中擁有容量。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

傑拉德·卡西迪（Gerard Cassidy），加拿大皇家銀行。

Hi, Ted. Quick question. You guys, obviously, have your fingers on the pulse of the markets very well, and there's been some discussions around in the fixed income trading area with treasuries, the so-called bias trade, that there's some stresses out there. Are you guys -- have any sense of where the -- are there any stresses going on in the market today and where are you keeping extra attention in case the stresses do pop up?

你好，泰德。快速提問。顯然，你們對市場的脈搏瞭如指掌，在固定收益交易領域，關於國債，即所謂的偏見交易，已經進行了一些討論，表明市場存在一些壓力。你們是否了解當今市場存在哪些壓力？如果這些壓力真的出現，你們會特別關注哪些面向？

Well, there were higher volumes earlier in the week, and we saw some de-risking. That was followed by some strong auctions. As of this morning, anyway, when we were getting on this call, markets continue to function, and like all markets, we’re engaged with clients. But clearly, we're moving from one instrument to another. And we're going to be keeping an eye on that.

嗯，本週早些時候交易量較高，我們看到了一些風險降低。隨後又進行了一些強勁的拍賣。無論如何，截至今天早上，當我們接到這個電話時，市場仍在繼續運轉，就像所有市場一樣，我們正在與客戶互動。但顯然，我們正在從一種工具轉向另一種工具。我們將持續關注此事。

But for our own part with respect to engagement with clients, it's been orderly, and again, the strong actions speak to that. And we're going to keep a close eye out. But for us, it's been orderly, and clients have engaged in a way that has not created any sense of something broader, but that will continue to play out. But for us, it's been regular way, some de-risking, higher volumes, but all things being equal, functioning markets.

但就我們與客戶的合作而言，一切都井然有序，強而有力的行動也再次證明了這一點。我們將密切關注。但對我們來說，這是有序的，客戶的參與方式並沒有產生任何更廣泛的感覺，但這種情況將繼續發揮作用。但對我們來說，這是一種常規方式，一些降低風險，更高的交易量，但在所有條件相同的情況下，市場正常運作。

Very good. And Sharon, you obviously talked about the wealth management business in your prepared remarks, and you've got the Workplace channel as well as the self-directed and the traditional Morgan Stanley full service channel. In these markets that we're in where they're very volatile and choppy, of those three channels, which is the one that you think will do best and which is the one that might slow down in activity?

非常好。莎倫，您顯然在準備好的發言中談到了財富管理業務，並且您有工作場所管道以及自我導向和傳統的摩根士丹利全方位服務管道。在我們所處的市場中，市場波動很大，在這三個管道中，您認為哪一個管道表現最好，哪一個管道的活動可能會放緩？

That's a great question. What I can say, so far, is that based on what we've seen over the course of the last five years, right, it depends on the environment and what you're actually going through. We've seen -- clearly, COVID was different when you think about self-directed.

這是一個很好的問題。到目前為止，我可以說的是，根據我們過去五年所看到的情況，這取決於環境以及你實際經歷的情況。我們已經看到——顯然，當你考慮自我導向時，COVID 是不同的。

The Workplace channel is one where one could say you might see some of a decrease necessarily in granting of stocks. That is what could happen. So, if you want to take kind of that approach of where is the vulnerability, maybe that is one where the actual vesting or the grants of the various stocks might be there. You might not have IPO events.

可以說，在工作場所管道中，你可能會看到股票授予量必然會減少。這就是有可能發生的事情。因此，如果您想採取這種方法來確定脆弱性在哪裡，也許那就是實際歸屬或各種股票的贈與可能存在的地方。您可能沒有 IPO 事件。

However, on the other side of that, self-directed is one where we see record levels of activities in various days. We've seen increased client engagement in self-directed, and we've also really seen an increased client engagement on the adviser-led side.

然而，另一方面，我們在自主導向方面看到各種活動在各個日子裡都達到了創紀錄的水平。我們看到客戶在自主指導方面的參與度有所提高，我們也看到客戶在顧問主導方面的參與度有所提高。

I highlighted what's known as unsolicited trades. So rather than an adviser necessarily calling an individual, we've seen those numbers really rise over the course of the first quarter. So that just shows you that there's a lot of engagement on both sides. The volumes from that adviser side over the last two weeks have been up 50% to 100% larger than over the volumes for the last 30 trading days.

我強調了所謂的未經請求的交易。因此，我們看到這些數字在第一季確實有所上升，而不是顧問一定會打電話給個人。這顯示雙方都有很多參與。過去兩週，該顧問的交易量比過去 30 個交易日的交易量增加了 50% 至 100%。

Remember all the stuff we used to talk about with next-best action, et cetera, where advisers were sending next-best actions to their individual retail clients. We've seen many more responses to that than we have historically, over the course of these last two weeks. What, to me, that highlights is really the value of the advice and the questions. And then from a self-directed side, the fact that our technology has been able to handle this level of volumes without interruption allows a client who's self-directed to come back -- continue to come back to the platform itself.

回想我們過去談論的有關次優行動等的所有內容，顧問們正在向他們的個人零售客戶發送次優行動。在過去兩週內，我們看到的回應比以往任何時候都多得多。對我來說，這真正凸顯了建議和問題的價值。然後從自主的角度來說，我們的技術能夠不間斷地處理這種程度的數據，這使得自主的客戶可以回來——繼續回到平臺本身。

So that's why I highlight those two channels. Workplace a little bit less in our control, so I cannot exactly tell you what a Workplace channel would do in terms of granting new stock, et cetera.

這就是我強調這兩個管道的原因。我們對工作場所的控制力稍差一些，因此我無法確切地告訴您工作場所管道在授予新股票等方面會做什麼。

Devin Ryan, Citizens JMP.

德文·瑞安（Devin Ryan），公民 JMP。

Hey, good morning, Ted. Good morning, Sharon. A question on expenses. Would be great to just get a bit of background on the recent initiative that drove some of the severance in the quarter. I know, not a huge number, but just what did you accomplished there. And then just more broadly, thoughts on opportunities to drive more efficiency at the firm in different revenue environments and just whether you know this current uncertainty will slow any investments or drive any change in kind of the expense growth plans overall.

嘿，早上好，泰德。早安，莎倫。關於費用的問題。如果能稍微了解一下導致本季部分遣散費的近期舉措的背景就好了。我知道，數量不是很多，但你在那裡取得了什麼成就？然後更廣泛地思考在不同收入環境下提高公司效率的機會，以及您是否知道當前的不確定性會減緩任何投資或推動整體費用成長計畫的任何變化。

We had a reduction of 3% of our headcount, ex-FAs in the first quarter. As you know, that was coming out of a rigorous year-end performance review assessment and process. We have ongoing investments in automation, AI, and assessing where we want our people for the next 5 to 10 years. But clearly, the environment is such that we'll be reviewing the overall workforce regularly as we always do.

第一季度，我們的員工人數（包括 FA）減少了 3%。如您所知，這是嚴格的年終績效評估和流程的結果。我們持續投資於自動化、人工智慧，並評估未來 5 到 10 年內我們的員工將走向何方。但顯然，目前的環境要求我們將像往常一樣定期審查整體勞動力。

And when there's some uncertainty, you have to be doing that. But to be clear, we like where we are right now and where talent can fit into the firm, we continue to bring people on board in the places where we intend on growing. So, the expense mentality is around rigor and discipline. It is not necessarily about less. It's about the right allocation of human capital in the context of where the world is going.

當存在不確定性時，你必須這樣做。但要明確的是，我們喜歡現在的狀況以及人才能夠融入公司的地方，我們會繼續在我們打算發展的地方招募人才。因此，消費心態是圍繞著嚴謹和紀律進行的。這並不一定意味著更少。這是關於在世界發展背景下如何正確配置人力資本的問題。

Got it. Thanks, Ted. And then just on the investment banking conversation, great to hear about the pipelines. Uncertainty has been a challenge. The other thing though is valuations are down a lot, right? The S&P is down mid-teens. A lot of these growth stocks are down 30%, 40%.

知道了。謝謝，泰德。然後就在投資銀行對話中，很高興聽到有關管道的消息。不確定性一直是個挑戰。但另一件事是估值下降了很多，對嗎？標準普爾指數下跌了百分之十幾。許多成長型股票下跌了 30% 至 40%。

So I'm just curious for the new issue market or the M&A market to really turn back on, do you think we need to see kind of the recovery in asset prices because that's where people's expectations are anchored, or do you think this is just much more about just some stability and people are going to try to execute on things once we get that, like it's not just about valuations bouncing back to where we came from?

所以我只是好奇新發行市場或併購市場是否真的會復甦，您是否認為我們需要看到資產價格的複蘇，因為這是人們預期的錨點，或者您是否認為這更多的只是某種穩定性，一旦我們獲得穩定性，人們就會嘗試執行一些事情，而不僅僅是估值反彈到原來的水平？

Stability will be more important than valuation. Most of these transactions are of comparative value. And so waiting for stocks to hit all-time highs again, that probably is not the right strategy. It's a question of what your longer-term priorities are with respect to things that matter to you in the C-suite, around a supply chain, energy, technology, and sizing against the sector.

穩定性比估值更重要。這些交易大多具有比較價值。因此，等待股票再次創下歷史新高可能不是正確的策略。問題在於，對於您作為高階主管而言，在供應鏈、能源、技術以及行業規模等方面，您的長期優先事項是什麼。

So too with the IPO calendar, there were folks that came right as that window briefly shut. The window ought to reopen and potentially reopen for periods of time that will allow for a lot of the new parade of companies to come through. So I think it's more a sense of the uncertainty getting barriered and having a sense that it's not totally risk-off versus pure valuation, which is why I'm saying pause versus delete.

同樣，隨著 IPO 日程的臨近，有些人在 IPO 窗口短暫關閉時就來了。這個窗口應該重新開放，並且可能在一段時間內重新開放，以便讓大量新公司進入。因此，我認為這更多的是一種不確定性被阻礙的感覺，並且有一種感覺，它不是完全的風險規避，而是純粹的估值，這就是我說暫停而不是刪除的原因。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

富國證券的麥克梅奧 (Mike Mayo)。

Hey, Ted. Pause not delete, that's my key question. You sound more upbeat than, I'd say, the average manager, and I'm just trying to -- maybe what you're seeing or what you've seen historically or what gives you a little bit more optimism than some others and -- on the fourth-quarter call, you said mergers, backlog, the best in seven years. You said the DCM is kind of a domino effect, activity in the CFO level, and sponsors are going to harvest. And the pipelines are still the same, you said today.

嘿，泰德。暫停而不是刪除，這是我的關鍵問題。我想說，您聽起來比一般的經理更樂觀，我只是想——也許是您所看到的，或者您過去所看到的，或者是什麼讓您比其他人更樂觀一點——在第四季度的電話會議上，您說合併、積壓訂單是七年來最好的。您說 DCM 是一種骨牌效應，CFO 級別的活動以及贊助商將會收穫。您今天說，管道仍然是一樣的。

So I guess you could still paint a positive story, pause not delete. But I think the real question is -- first of all, if that's accurate. I'm still reflecting your views. But at some point, it's delete, not pause. And the question is, is that one month, two months?

所以我想你仍然可以描繪一個積極的故事，暫停而不是刪除。但我認為真正的問題是——首先，這是否準確。我仍在反思你的觀點。但在某些時候，它是刪除，而不是暫停。問題是，這是一個月，還是兩個月？

If we're in the next earnings call, we're still discussing what's going to happen with tariffs, is it kind of -- do you have to think about rightsizing and do we think about maybe this capital markets recovery, especially merger recovery maybe not happening? At what point does the uncertainty going on for so long as to kill off the recovery?

如果我們在下次財報電話會議上仍在討論關稅將會發生什麼，這是否有點——你必須考慮調整規模，我們是否考慮資本市場復甦，特別是合併復甦可能不會發生？不確定性何時會持續太久，以致於扼殺經濟復甦？

That is the question. That is the question. The raison d'etre of the deals that are in the pipeline is a strong one, because folks were interrupted, obviously, by the years of the pandemic and the uncertainty around interest rates. And now of course there's this and the question, Mike, is what are we talking about with respect to the macroenvironment? Are we talking about the rearchitecting of industrial policy in the context of America's place today and where it wants to be decades from now? Is it about getting our fiscal house in order and how that interplays with tax and deregulation to come? So broader context, we're talking about writing our own imbalances and then redefining what's in America's long-term national interest.

這就是問題所在。這就是問題所在。正在進行的交易有著強烈的存在理由，因為人們顯然受到了多年的疫情和利率不確定性的干擾。當然，現在還有這個問題，麥克，我們在談論的宏觀環境是什麼？我們是否在根據美國當前的地位以及未來幾十年的發展目標來討論產業政策的重新制定？是否與理順財政狀況以及與未來的稅收和放鬆管制如何相互作用有關？因此，從更廣泛的角度來看，我們正在討論如何解決我們自身的不平衡問題，然後重新定義美國的長期國家利益。

Those are weighty issues. Complex, i.e., intricate, complicated, i.e., unclear. So, to your point, it could be that when one thinks about how big that adjustment is, that it will require enough time that the pause effectively becomes a relook and the books get put away. But I think it's still relatively early in how this new framework has been formulated.

這些都是重大問題。複雜，即錯綜複雜，緊張，即不明晰。因此，就您的觀點而言，當人們考慮這種調整有多大時，可能會認為它需要足夠的時間，以至於暫停實際上變成了重新審視，並將書籍收起來。但我認為，這個新框架的發展還處於相對較早的階段。

We are finding Mike that we are still very much engaged with clients. Yes. We're asking more questions as they are. We're listening to a wider spectrum of possibilities. And yes, it's fair to say we're going to have higher structural volatility for a while. So, what is the client strategy? What are the risks, and what are their alternatives? What are the tactical options?

我們發現麥克，我們仍然與客戶保持著密切的聯繫。是的。我們正在提出更多問題。我們正在傾聽更多的可能性。是的，可以公平地說，我們將在一段時間內面臨更高的結構性波動。那麼，客戶策略是什麼？有哪些風險？有哪些替代方案？有哪些戰術選擇？

And when you think about what we deliver, which is trusted advice, access to markets, a global perspective, it is the case that markets can be accessed over weekends, overnight, can be done through semi-public, semi-private markets. There is an entire democratization or financialization of investors, buyers, and sellers that allow for deals to happen in all but markets that have been shut down.

當你想到我們提供的服務，也就是值得信賴的建議、市場准入和全球視角時，你會發現，你可以在週末、夜間進入市場，也可以透過半公開、半私人市場進入市場。投資者、買家和賣家的全面民主化或金融化使得交易可以在除已關閉的市場之外的所有市場進行。

So it is the case truly that three, four months from now if the markets have gotten even more complicated around these weighty issues that the adjustment period looks like it will be a longer one, that it's more of a delete someday kind of thing. But I am of the view that we are still on pause. We don't know whether the economy is going to contract. We don't know what the rate of inflation will be when the transmission effects come through.

因此，事實是，如果從現在起三、四個月後市場在這些重大問題上變得更加複雜，那麼調整期看起來將會更長，這更像是一種有朝一日會被刪除的事情。但我認為我們仍處於暫停狀態。我們不知道經濟是否會萎縮。我們不知道傳導效應顯現時通貨膨脹率會是多少。

You saw that today's PPI was, in fact, a miss on the negative side. So, we are staying super close to clients, corporate and financial sponsor, and in our markets business. And then in our wealth business, high levels of interaction activity such that we believe that the pause will be frustrating at times as it is for all of us, Mike, that deals take longer to print.

您會看到，今天的 PPI 實際上處於負面水平。因此，我們與客戶、企業和金融贊助商以及我們的市場業務保持密切聯繫。然後在我們的財富業務中，由於互動活動水平很高，因此我們認為暫停有時會令人沮喪，因為對於我們所有人來說，交易需要更長的時間來列印。

But in the context of clarity around the other two pillars too, tax and de-reg, it may be that that is enough for our client base, especially at the top of the advice pyramid to say, you know what, I can actually quantify what that higher structural volatility is about, whether it's in equity prices or in foreign exchange or in interest rates, and indeed we will go forward. And the answer to your question, and it is an important one for a firm like this, is one that will be one that I think we'll have more clarity on mid-year when we see how the economy is reacting to all of the discussions and issues on the table that I've described.

但在其他兩個支柱（稅收和取消管制）也清晰的背景下，這可能足以讓我們的客戶群，特別是諮詢金字塔頂端的客戶說，你知道嗎，我實際上可以量化更高的結構性波動是什麼，無論是股票價格、外匯還是利率，事實上我們將繼續前進。對於您這個問題的答案，對於我們這樣的公司來說，這是一個重要的答案，我認為，當我們在年中看到經濟對我所描述的所有討論和問題的反應時，我們會對這個問題有更清晰的認識。

There are no further questions at this time. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you, everyone, for participating. You may now disconnect and have a great day.

目前沒有其他問題。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開連接並享受美好的一天。