摩根士丹利 (MS) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to Morgan Stanley's third quarter 2025 earnings call. On behalf of Morgan Stanley, I will begin the call with the following information and disclaimers. This call is being recorded. During today's presentation, we will refer to our earnings release and financial supplement, copies of which are available at morganstanley.com.

早安.歡迎參加摩根士丹利2025年第三季財報電話會議。我謹代表摩根士丹利，先向大家介紹以下資訊和免責聲明。本次通話正在錄音。在今天的報告中，我們將參考我們的獲利報告和財務補充文件，這些文件的副本可在 morganstanley.com 上取得。

Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. Morgan Stanley does not undertake to update the forward-looking statements in this discussion. Please refer to our notices regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures that appear in the earnings release. This presentation may not be duplicated or reproduced without our consent.

今天的演講可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異。摩根士丹利不承諾更新本討論中的前瞻性陳述。請參閱我們在盈利報告中發布的有關前瞻性陳述和非GAAP指標的通知。未經我們同意，不得複製或轉載此簡報。

I will now turn the call over to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Ted Pick.

現在我將把電話交給董事長兼執行長泰德·皮克。

Good morning and thank you for joining us. In the third quarter, Morgan Stanley generated record top and bottom line performance with revenues of $18.2 billion and EPS of $2.80. Robust returns on tangible of 23.5% reflect the operating leverage of the integrated firm. The capital markets flywheel is taking hold as the administration seeks to execute on its three-pronged strategy to reshape the economy, with Fed rate cuts likely to continue into next year. Across public and private markets, institutional and retail clients are engaged, seeking trusted advice and global access from investment bankers, financial advisers and market specialists.

早安，感謝各位的參與。第三季度，摩根士丹利營收達 182 億美元，每股收益達 2.80 美元，創歷史新高。 23.5% 的強勁有形資產回報率反映了這家一體化公司的經營槓桿效應。隨著政府尋求執行重塑經濟的三管齊下策略，資本市場飛輪效應正在顯現，聯準會降息可能會持續到明年。無論在公共市場或私人市場，機構客戶和零售客戶都積極參與其中，尋求投資銀行家、財務顧問和市場專家的可靠建議和全球資源。

From the first quarter of 2024, a top priority for the team has continued to be the reaffirmation of Morgan Stanley's strategy to raise, manage and allocate capital. And over time, to execute on a higher plane when favorable capital markets environments permit. Our business model is activity based. And while we cannot control the broader economic and market backdrop, the heart of the Morgan Stanley investment thesis remains our delivering earnings and returns durability, alongside continued dividend growth through periods of uncertainty.

從 2024 年第一季開始，團隊的首要任務仍然是重申摩根士丹利籌集、管理和配置資本的策略。隨著時間的推移，當有利的資本市場環境允許時，就能在​​更高的水平上取得成功。我們的商業模式是基於活動的。雖然我們無法控制更廣泛的經濟和市場背景，但摩根士丹利投資理念的核心仍然是在不確定時期實現盈利和回報的可持續性，以及持續的股息成長。

This focus on maintaining earnings durability and driving earnings growth is governed by execution rigor inside the lanes of the priorities outlined in our annual strategy deck. The readout of sequential EPS results during this period underscores ownership of earnings growth and durability against different economic backdrops, $2.02, $1.82, $1.88, $2.22, $2.60, $2.13 and now $2.80.

我們致力於保持獲利的可持續性並推動獲利成長，而這主要取決於我們在年度策略文件中概述的各項優先事項的嚴格執行。在此期間，連續每股盈餘結果的公佈凸顯了該公司在不同經濟背景下的獲利成長和永續性，分別為 2.02 美元、1.82 美元、1.88 美元、2.22 美元、2.60 美元、2.13 美元，以及現在的 2.80 美元。

Morgan Stanley is well positioned in each of our businesses and is demonstrating consistent execution. Total client assets across Wealth and Investment Management are up $1.3 trillion over the last year and have reached $8.9 trillion. In Wealth, our scale and client reach continue to drive performance. Reported margins were a full 30%. We added $81 billion of net new assets and $42 billion in fee-based flows in the quarter.

摩根士丹利在我們各個業務領域都佔據有利地位，並展現出持續穩定的執行力。過去一年，財富和投資管理領域的客戶總資產增加了 1.3 兆美元，達到 8.9 兆美元。在財富管理領域，我們的規模和客戶覆蓋範圍持續推動業績成長。據報道，利潤率高達 30%。本季我們新增淨資產 810 億美元，手續費收入 420 億美元。

Investment Management continues to scale capabilities with sustained leadership from Parametric. Across all three regions, our Institutional Securities business delivered outstanding results. Our equities business affirmed its number one position with a standout quarter. A rebound in the investment banking environment reopened the door to strategic M&A and renewed financing activity. The equity underwriting result was also industry-leading this quarter, which speaks to the power of our integrated investment bank.

在 Parametric 的持續領導下，投資管理能力不斷提升。在所有三個地區，我們的機構證券業務都取得了優異的表現。我們的股票業務憑藉出色的季度業績鞏固了其第一的位置。投資銀行業環境的回溫重新開啟了策略併購和融資活動的大門。本季股權承銷業績也處於行業領先地位，這反映了我們綜合投資銀行的實力。

With respect to the bank regulatory capital framework, regulators are moving toward a more balanced approach, executing on their prudential oversight responsibilities and more leveling the competitive playing field, where the largest, best-capitalized financial institutions can once again act as a primary engine to drive sustainable economic growth. Morgan Stanley specifically appreciates the Fed's recent reconsideration of our CCAR results, and we look forward to ongoing dialogue and transparency. Our excess CET1 capital stands at over 300 basis points.

在銀行監理資本架構方面，監理機關正朝著更平衡的方向發展，履行其審慎監理職責，並更公平地創造競爭環境，使規模最大、資本最雄厚的金融機構能夠再次成為推動永續經濟成長的主要引擎。摩根士丹利特別讚賞聯準會最近重新考慮了我們的CCAR結果，我們期待繼續進行對話並保持透明度。我們的超額一級資本超過 300 個基點。

Periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty were to be expected. As we transitioned from the post-pandemic period we called “the end of the end of history” to a period we now could call “the continuation of history,” a period in which the push and pull of industrial policy, national identity and technological innovation will continue to be front of mind for our clients and stakeholders.

經濟和地緣政治出現不確定時期是意料之中的。隨著我們從後疫情時代（我們稱之為「歷史的終結的終結」）過渡到我們現在可以稱之為「歷史的延續」的時期，在這個時期，產業政策、民族認同和技術創新之間的拉鋸戰將繼續成為我們客戶和利益相關者關注的焦點。

Morgan Stanley will continue to capture opportunities around the world through cycles, staying close to our clients as they raise, manage and allocate capital. We are actively investing in the Integrated Firm across Wealth and Investment Management, Institutional Securities and across our bank and infrastructure units. We are deploying capital and expanding capabilities through the wealth funnel and enhancing the global distribution of our asset management offerings.

摩根士丹利將持續掌握全球經濟週期中的各種機遇，與客戶緊密合作，協助他們籌募、管理和配置資金。我們正在積極投資於財富和投資管理、機構證券以及我們的銀行和基礎設施部門等綜合性公司。我們正在透過財富管道部署資本並擴大能力，同時加強我們資產管理產品的全球分銷。

As macro uncertainty and enormous opportunity uncomfortably coexist, our 2025 year-to-date results demonstrate both the capability and the capacity to deliver earnings durability and generate operating leverage against shifting economic and geopolitical backdrops.

由於宏觀經濟的不確定性和巨大的機會並存，我們 2025 年至今的業績表明，我們有能力在不斷變化的經濟和地緣政治背景下實現盈利的持續性和產生經營槓桿作用。

Morgan Stanley's strategy remains consistent, and our durable earnings and capital strength are clear. The quarter's performance across Wealth and Investment Management, alongside the strength across Institutional Securities in all three regions underscores the proposition of the Integrated Firm. We are focused on generating strong returns for our shareholders and have real degrees of flexibility to pursue growth opportunities across our core businesses. We are committed to advancing through $10 trillion in total client assets and on to the next phase of Morgan Stanley's growth trajectory.

摩根士丹利的策略始終如一，我們穩健的獲利能力和雄厚的資本實力顯而易見。本季財富與投資管理業務的優異表現，以及三大區域機構證券業務的強勁勢頭，凸顯了綜合性公司的價值主張。我們致力於為股東創造豐厚的回報，並擁有相當大的靈活性，可以在核心業務中尋求成長機會。我們致力於實現客戶總資產突破 10 兆美元大關，並邁入摩根士丹利成長軌跡的下一個階段。

As the firm celebrates its 90th anniversary, we're as ever focused on executing first-class business in a first-class way across the integrated firm for our clients, our shareholders and our colleagues.

在公司慶祝成立 90 週年之際，我們一如既往地專注於在整個一體化公司範圍內以一流的方式為我們的客戶、股東和同事提供一流的業務。

Sharon will now take us through the quarter in greater detail.

接下來，莎倫將更詳細地為我們介紹本季的情況。

Thank you, and good morning. The Firm delivered exceptional results in the third quarter, underscoring the power of our global Integrated Firm and the scale of $8.9 trillion in total client assets. Performance was very strong across the businesses and regions, driving record revenues, record EPS ex-DVA of $2.80 and an ROTCE of 23.5%. The year-to-date efficiency ratio, 69%.

謝謝，早安。公司在第三季取得了卓越的業績，凸顯了我們全球一體化公司的實力以及8.9兆美元客戶總資產的規模。各業務及地區業績表現非常強勁，推動營收創歷史新高，每股收益（不含DVA）創歷史新高，達2.80美元，ROTCE達23.5%。今年迄今的效率比率為 69%。

The Firm continues to demonstrate operating leverage while maintaining focus on longer-term investments. Our investment in Workplace, E*TRADE and our Investment Banking franchise are yielding results. Our early AI use cases, some live and some in pilot, are showing progress. These include the DevGen.AI tool, which enhances developer efficiency by modernizing code. Parable, an interactive tool that quickly analyzes and summarizes data. And LeadIQ, our AI-powered lead distribution platform, focusing on matching workplace and self-directed relationships and facilitating engagement with our financial advisers. Together, these use cases are laying the foundation to drive productivity across the firm.

公司在保持對長期投資的關注的同時，持續展現出高效的營運能力。我們在 Workplace、E*TRADE 和投資銀行業務方面的投資正在取得成效。我們早期的 AI 應用案例，有些已經上線，有些還在試點階段，都顯示了進展。其中包括 DevGen.AI 工具，它透過程式碼現代化來提高開發人員的效率。Parable 是一款互動式工具，可以快速分析和總結數據。還有 LeadIQ，我們基於人工智慧的潛在客戶分配平台，專注於匹配工作場所和自主導向的關係，並促進與我們財務顧問的互動。這些應用案例共同為提升整個公司的生產力奠定了基礎。

Now to the businesses. Institutional Securities revenues were standout at $8.5 billion, driving powerful operating leverage. While the Americas led to year-over-year growth, clients were active around the world. We are continuing to see attractive returns from steadily investing across the integrated investment bank. Themes around emerging technologies and renewed investor appetite in Asia contributed to the results.

接下來是企業方面。機構證券業務收入高達 85 億美元，表現突出，推動了強勁的營運槓桿效應。雖然美洲地區實現了同比增長，但客戶遍布世界各地。我們持續看到透過在綜合投資銀行範圍內穩定投資而獲得的可觀回報。新興技術以及亞洲投資者重新燃起的興趣是促成這一結果的重要因素。

Investment banking activity has meaningfully improved after several years of muted volumes. Capital markets reopened and supported underwriting issuance across both debt and equity products. Specifically, market receptivity for IPOs encouraged both sponsor- and founder-led companies to come to market. This, combined with strong credit metrics, set the stage for renewed strategic activity. Investment banking revenues increased to $2.1 billion, marking one of the strongest quarters in recent years. The year-over-year improvement was driven by broad-based strength, with underwriting results up over 50%.

經過數年的低迷期後，投資銀行業務活動已顯著改善。資本市場重新開放，為債務和股權產品的承銷發行提供了支持。具體而言，市場對 IPO 的接受度鼓勵了發起人主導型公司和創辦人主導型公司進入市場。這一點，再加上強勁的信用指標，為重新進行策略活動奠定了基礎。投資銀行業務收入增至 21 億美元，創下近年來最佳季度業績之一。年比改善主要得益於全面強勁的業績，其中承保業績成長超過 50%。

Advisory revenues increased year-over-year to $684 million, driven by higher completed activity. Equity underwriting revenues increased 80% year-over-year to $652 million, driven by IPO activity and further supported by strength across equity products and sectors. Activity picked up materially in September on the back of record-breaking post-Labor Day issuance in the Americas.

諮詢業務收入年增至 6.84 億美元，主要得益於已完成業務量的增加。受首次公開募股 (IPO) 活動的推動，以及股票產品和行業的強勁表現的進一步支撐，股票承銷收入同比增長 80% 至 6.52 億美元。受美洲勞動節後債券發行量創紀錄的推動，9 月債券發行活動顯著增加。

Fixed income underwriting revenues were $772 million, driven by higher non-investment grade and investment-grade loan issuance. As the M&A market showed signs of recovery, event-related lending commitments met receptive markets. Results were supported by higher flow activity as clients took advantage of refinancing opportunities.

固定收益承銷收入為 7.72 億美元，主要得益於非投資等級和投資等級貸款發行量的增加。隨著併購市場出現復甦跡象，與事件相關的貸款承諾也得到了市場的正面回應。客戶利用再融資機會，推動了更高的資金流動，從而支撐了業績。

Secular themes and pent-up demand have supported an increase in activity across the integrated investment bank. Clients are increasingly turning to Morgan Stanley to navigate complexity, monetize opportunities and deploy capital decisively.

長期趨勢和被壓抑的需求推動了綜合投資銀行業務活動的成長。客戶越來越傾向於選擇摩根士丹利來應對複雜局面、把握機會並果斷部署資本。

In the quarter, robust pipelines translated into announcements and credit markets were resilient and open, conducive to activity. We continue to selectively hire bankers and product specialists as the Integrated Firm culture is attracting opportunities to deepen the coverage footprint.

本季度，強勁的專案儲備轉化為公告，信貸市場保持韌性和開放，有利於市場活動。我們繼續有選擇地聘用銀行家和產品專家，因為一體化公司的文化正在吸引更多機會來擴大業務覆蓋範圍。

Our leading equities franchise generated $4.1 billion in revenue, propelled by broad-based performance across products and regions. Prime brokerage revenues drove results as average client balances and financing revenues reached new records. Cash results were strong, reflecting active client engagement and an increase in global market volumes compared to the prior year. Derivative results were up year-over-year, driven by higher activity and regional strength in EMEA.

我們領先的股票業務創造了 41 億美元的收入，這得益於產品和地區全面均衡的業績表現。主要經紀業務收入推動了業績成長，平均客戶餘額和融資收入均創歷史新高。現金流表現強勁，反映出積極的客戶互動以及全球市場交易量較上年有所成長。衍生性商品業績年增，主要得益於歐洲、中東和非洲地區業務活動的增加和區域實力的增強。

Fixed income revenues were $2.2 billion. The business showed consistency, driven by strong client engagement across credit and commodities, partially offset by lower results in foreign exchange. Micro results increased year-over-year. Performance was driven by strength in securitized products, benefiting from robust securitization activity and historical growth and durable lending balances.

固定收益收入為22億美元。業務表現穩定，這主要得益於信貸和商品業務的強勁客戶參與度，但部分被外匯業務的業績下滑所抵消。微觀層面的業績年增。業績成長主要得益於證券化產品的強勁表現，這得益於穩健的證券化活動、歷史成長以及穩定的貸款餘額。

Macro revenue declined versus the prior year. Volatility decreased in foreign exchange markets across developed market currencies, leading to reduced client activity and trading opportunities. Results in commodities finished the quarter with strength, increasing year-over-year, driven by our North American Power and Gas business, which included structured transactions during the period.

宏觀收入較上年下降。已開發市場貨幣的外匯市場波動性降低，導致客戶活動和交易機會減少。大宗商品業務本季業績表現強勁，同比增長，主要得益於北美電力和天然氣業務的推動，該業務在本季度進行了結構性交易。

In the quarter, ISG provisions were modest at $1 million, as a sequential improvement in the macroeconomic forecast was offset by portfolio growth in individual assessments. Net charge-offs totaled $46 million, primarily driven by commercial real estate loans that had largely been provisioned for in prior quarters.

本季 ISG 撥備金額適中，為 100 萬美元，因為宏觀經濟預測的環比改善被個別評估中的投資組合成長所抵銷。淨沖銷總額為 4,600 萬美元，主要原因是商業房地產貸款，而這些貸款在前幾季已基本提列了撥備。

Turning to Wealth Management. Our franchise is growing with sustained momentum, reinforcing our industry-leading position. A record $7 trillion in total client assets, record revenues of over $8 billion and continued operating leverage drove margins to 30%. Another quarter of strong net new assets and robust fee-based flows illustrate the power of the funnel and the scale of our client base, which spans over 20 million relationships. Assets that originated from Workplace continue to migrate into our adviser-led channel as a result of the consistent investments we have made into our differentiated platform.

轉向財富管理。我們的特許經營業務正以持續成長的勢頭發展，鞏固了我們在行業中的領先地位。客戶總資產創下 7 兆美元的紀錄，營收創下超過 80 億美元的紀錄，以及持續的營運槓桿作用，推動利潤率達到 30%。又一個季度強勁的淨新增資產和穩健的收費收入表明了銷售管道的強大作用以及我們客戶群的規模，我們的客戶群涵蓋超過 2000 萬個關係。由於我們對差異化平台的持續投入，源自 Workplace 的資產不斷轉移到我們以顧問為主導的管道。

We are not standing still. In the third quarter, we continued to invest, deepening our competitive moats in areas like our expanded collaboration with Carta in private markets and in digital assets through announced partnerships with Zerohash. We continue to innovate, reinforcing our leadership in the industry and enhancing our ability to service our clients with unique capabilities.

我們並未停滯不前。第三季度，我們繼續投資，透過與Zerohash宣佈建立合作夥伴關係，擴大與Carta在私募市場和數位資產領域的合作，加深了我們在這些領域的競爭優勢。我們不斷創新，鞏固我們在業界的領先地位，並憑藉獨特的能力提升我們為客戶提供服務的能力。

Moving to our business metrics. Record revenues were $8.2 billion. The business continues to demonstrate operating leverage, with the reported margin expanding to 30.3%. DCP negatively impacted the margin by approximately 100 basis points this quarter. Asset management revenues were a record at $4.8 billion. Fee-based flows were exceptionally strong, exceeding $40 billion for the second consecutive quarter. Transactional revenues were $1.3 billion, and excluding the impact of DCP, we're up 22% year-over-year.

接下來我們來看業務指標。創紀錄的收入為 82 億美元。該業務持續展現經營槓桿效應，報告利潤率擴大至 30.3%。本季度，DCP 對利潤率產生了約 100 個基點的負面影響。資產管理收入創下48億美元的紀錄。收費收入資金流動異常強勁，連續第二季超過 400 億美元。交易收入為 13 億美元，不計 DCP 的影響，較去年同期成長 22%。

Throughout the quarter, retail clients were engaged across products and self-directed activity was particularly strong. We launched Power E*TRADE Pro, which is a reflection of our investments to enhance our platform. These investments have helped support E*TRADE's transactional revenue, which is highly accretive to our margin.

整個季度，零售客戶對各種產品都表現出了濃厚的興趣，自主行銷活動尤其活躍。我們推出了 Power E*TRADE Pro，體現了我們為提昇平台效能所做的投資。這些投資有助於提高 E*TRADE 的交易收入，這大大提升了我們的利潤率。

Bank lending balances rose $5 billion sequentially to $174 billion, reflecting our multi-year investments to meet the full portfolio needs of our growing client base. In the quarter, we deepened our client penetration with lending solutions, inclusive of securities-based lending and mortgages.

銀行貸款餘額環比增長 50 億美元，達到 1,740 億美元，反映了我們為滿足不斷增長的客戶群的全部投資組合需求而進行的多年投資。本季度，我們透過包括證券抵押貸款和抵押貸款在內的貸款解決方案，加深了對客戶的滲透。

Sequentially, total end period deposits grew to $398 billion and net interest income increased to $2 billion. The growth in NII was driven by the impact of our market environment and the cumulative loan growth. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect to see a modest sequential gain in NII. Of course, the rate environment, trajectory of loan growth and deposit mix will all come into play.

期末存款總額較上季成長至 3,980 億美元，淨利息收入較上季成長至 20 億美元。淨利息收入的成長是由市場環境的影響和貸款累積成長所推動的。展望第四季度，我們預期淨利息收入將出現小幅環比成長。當然，利率環境、貸款成長軌跡和存款結構都會發揮作用。

Finally, in the third quarter, we delivered net new assets of $81 billion, a testament to the depth and breadth of our diversified platform. All three channels contributed to our asset growth. The reopening of the IPO market also supported results, further evidence that our Workplace channel serves as a powerful asset acquisition tool. This quarter, the business demonstrated exactly what it is built to do. With over 20 million relationships and $7 trillion in total client assets, our scale and connectivity sets us apart, positioning us to deliver.

最後，在第三季度，我們實現了 810 億美元的淨新增資產，證明了我們多元化平台的深度和廣度。這三個管道都為我們的資產成長做出了貢獻。IPO市場的重新開放也支撐了業績，進一步證明我們的Workplace通路是一個強大的資產取得工具。本季度，公司充分展現了其成立的宗旨。我們擁有超過 2000 萬個客戶關係和 7 兆美元的客戶總資產，我們的規模和連結使我們脫穎而出，使我們能夠提供服務。

Turning to Investment Management. The business continues to perform well. We are seeing momentum for secular demand in our highly sought-after Parametric solutions and expanding our global reach in fixed income. Our investments have supported our growth to a record $1.8 trillion in total AUM, and further position the business for the opportunities ahead.

轉向投資管理。公司業績持續良好。我們看到，備受追捧的參數化解決方案的長期需求正在成長，我們在固定收益領域的全球影響力也不斷擴大。我們的投資使我們的總資產管理規模達到了創紀錄的 1.8 兆美元，並為公司未來的發展機會奠定了更堅實的基礎。

Long-term net inflows were $16.5 billion in the quarter. Over half these inflows were driven by Parametric and further supported by ongoing strength in fixed income. Parametric inflows were inclusive of a large partnership with a third-party investment adviser, seeking greater tax efficiency for its clients.

本季長期淨流入資金為165億美元。超過一半的資金流入是由 Parametric 推動的，並進一步得到了固定收益市場持續強勁表現的支持。參數化資金流入包括與第三方投資顧問的大型合作，旨在為客戶尋求更高的稅務效率。

Liquidity and overlay services had inflows of $24.8 billion, driven by demand for our liquidity strategies. Revenues of $1.7 billion increased 13% compared to the prior year. The increase was driven by higher asset management and related fees on the back of higher average AUM. Performance-based income and other revenues were $117 million, supported by gains in infrastructure, private equity and real estate.

流動性和對沖服務資金流入達 248 億美元，這主要得益於市場對我們流動性策略的需求。營收達17億美元，較上年成長13%。平均資產管理規模擴大，導致資產管理費及相關費用增加，推動了資產管理費及相關費用的成長。業績收入和其他收入為 1.17 億美元，這得益於基礎設施、私募股權和房地產的收益。

Turning to the balance sheet. Total spot assets grew to $1.4 trillion. Standardized RWAs increased sequentially to $536 billion as we actively supported clients. Exposures rose intra-quarter on greater levels of activity and reduced into quarter end as we syndicated risk. Our standardized CET1 ratio stands at 15.2%. We opportunistically bought back $1.1 billion of common stock in the quarter. Our quarterly tax rate was 23.6%, excluding $50 million of net discrete tax benefits. We continue to expect our fourth quarter tax rate will be approximately 24%.

接下來看一下資產負債表。現貨資產總額成長至1.4兆美元。隨著我們積極支持客戶，標準化風險加權資產 (RWA) 逐週增加至 5,360 億美元。由於業務活動水準提高，季度內風險敞口有所上升，但隨著我們採取風險分擔措施，季度末風險敞口有所下降。我們的標準化 CET1 比率為 15.2%。本季我們抓住機會回購了價值 11 億美元的普通股。我們的季度稅率為 23.6%，不包括 5,000 萬美元的淨離散稅收優惠。我們仍然預計第四季稅率約為 24%。

The Firm is operating with momentum across all segments. We enter the fourth quarter from a position of strength, with a combined $8.9 trillion in total client assets, an engaged client base, healthy pipelines and global reach. We remain focused on continuing to invest in our business as we look ahead.

本公司各業務板塊均維持強勁的營運動能。我們以強勁的勢頭進入第四季度，客戶總資產合計達 8.9 兆美元，擁有活躍的客戶群、健康的業務管道和全球影響力。展望未來，我們將繼續專注於對業務進行持續投資。

And with that, we will now open the line up to questions.

接下來，我們將開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) Dan Fannon, Jefferies.

（操作說明）丹‧範農，傑富瑞。

Ted, I was hoping you could just talk about the environment. You've been quite bullish all year. Obviously, a great quarter. So can you talk about the sustainability of these trends, maybe the context of the backlog and investment banking, the diversity and how that compares to maybe prior periods?

泰德，我原本希望你能談談環境問題。你今年一直都很看好市場。顯然，這是一個非常棒的季度。那麼，您能否談談這些趨勢的可持續性，例如積壓訂單和投資銀行業務的背景、多樣性，以及與以往時期相比有何不同？

Yeah. The question is the right setup. Whether we are entering a -- a golden age of investment banking remains to be seen, but it has been now several years of chatter around green shoots, and now the flywheel is taking hold. It's happening across industry groups. It's happening across regions. It's happening against a generally more favorable regulatory backdrop. It's happening at a time where there is deglobalization and re-globalization depending on where you are and how you're looking at it. And obviously, the need to feed the cost of endogenous AI.

是的。問題在於如何找到合適的方案。我們是否正在進入投資銀行業黃金時代還有待觀察，但幾年來關於黃金時代萌芽的討論一直不斷，現在這股勢頭正在形成。這種情況在各行業群體中都在發生。這種情況正在各個地區發生。這種情況發生在一個整體上更為有利的監管環境。這件事正值去全球化和再全球化並存的時期，這取決於你身處何地以及你如何看待它。顯然，還需要支付內生人工智慧的成本。

So that sets up for a very interesting environment for strategics who now will compete for product with sponsors in each region and in each major industry. We've been spending considerable time and capital on building our investment banking core, and the fruits of that are seen in both the equity and debt underwriting number and an advisory number that continues to pick up. And to what you're alluding to, Dan, the pipeline looks very good across all three regions. So we are we are optimistic.

因此，這為策略家創造了一個非常有趣的環境，他們現在將與各個地區和各個主要行業的贊助商競爭產品。我們投入了大量時間和資金來建立我們的投資銀行核心業務，其成果體現在股票和債券承銷數量以及諮詢業務數量的持續成長。至於你提到的問題，丹，這三個地區的管線狀況看起來都非常好。所以我們很樂觀。

Now, of course, the world is an uncertain place, and there could be pauses depending on how geopolitics feel. But generally speaking, the investment banking product category over the next couple of years should be generally up and to the right.

當然，現在世界局勢動盪不安，可能會出現停滯，這取決於地緣政治局勢的發展。但總的來說，未來幾年投資銀行產品類別應該會整體上改善。

Great. That's helpful. And then, Sharon, I was hoping you could expand upon your comments around just the NNA growth within the wealth channel. You talked about Workplace and the IPO market being a contributor. So maybe if there's a way to contextualize that a bit more and also just talk about the other channels in terms of the momentum there as well.

偉大的。那很有幫助。然後，莎倫，我希望你能就財富管道中 NNA 的成長發表一些看法。您提到了工作場所和IPO市場是促成因素之一。所以，或許我們可以更理解這一點，並談談其他管道的發展動能。

Absolutely, Dan. Thank you for the question. All the channels are strong. Self-directed. We've been increasing our marketing and business development. You can see that. Our advisory is also strong. We have new clients, existing clients, both coming in, so we're attracting assets held away. But we're also bringing in new clients, and that's a lot of the tools and -- that we've been giving to our advisers.

當然，丹。謝謝你的提問。所有頻道訊號都很強。自主學習。我們一直在加強行銷和業務拓展力度。你看得出來。我們的顧問團隊實力也很強。我們有新客戶，也有老客戶，兩者都在湧入，所以我們正在吸引那些被擱置的資金。但我們也正在吸引新客戶，而這正是我們一直提供給顧問的工具和資源。

And as it relates to Workplace, that's probably the most exciting part. I think we're just scratching the surface of what we've seen in Workplace. It's bringing in assets not just in NNA, but also directly into fee-based flows. So we're seeing momentum as you have IPOs come to market. People are bringing their assets to Morgan Stanley. They're dropping into their self-directed accounts, yes. But they're also moving it directly into the adviser-led accounts. And that's been a large part of the story.

而就工作場所而言，這可能是最令人興奮的部分。我認為我們目前對 Workplace 的了解還只是冰山一角。它不僅將資產引入 NNA，而且還直接引入基於費用的資金流。所以我們看到，隨著IPO公司陸續上市，市場正在形成一股強勁的成長動能。人們正在將資產轉移到摩根士丹利。是的，他們會登入自己的帳戶。但他們也正在將其直接轉移到顧問主導的帳戶中。而這正是故事的重要組成部分。

I think you and I have talked about it, Dan. Historically, you've asked about -- we've given a $300 billion number about that Workplace migration, and we've said that we've seen about $60 billion of migration per year. We're already three quarters into it, and we're exceeding those numbers from a full year basis. So Workplace has been a contributor to net new assets, to fee-based flows and channel migration.

丹，我想你我之前已經談過這件事了。從歷史上看，你們問過——我們給了一個關於 Workplace 遷移的 3000 億美元的數字，我們也說過，我們看到每年大約有 600 億美元的遷移。我們已經完成了四分之三，而且已經超過了全年預期數字。因此，Workplace 為新增淨資產、收費流程和通路遷移做出了貢獻。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

Ebrahim Poonawala，美國銀行。

I had a question on the pretax margin hitting 30%. I know you kind of removed all the pluses and the signs when you took over as CEO. But it's coming up a lot more frequently in our conversations with investors is when we look beyond one, do you think you achieved the point where the 30% pretax margin is sustainable? And again, I'm not saying you're changing your guidance, but I'm just wondering when you think about the outlook and all the productivity improvements, etc, is there risk that the 30% is drifting higher? Or moving lower in terms of -- when we think about the medium-term outlook?

我有一個關於稅前利潤率達到 30% 的問題。我知道你接任CEO後，基本上把所有有利因素和正面訊號都消除了。但在與投資人的對話中，我們越來越常聽到這樣的問題：當我們展望未來時，您是否認為30%的稅前利潤率是可持續的？我再次聲明，我並不是說你們要改變預期，但我只是想知道，考慮到前景和所有生產力提升等因素，30% 的成長目標是否有可能進一步提高？或者說，從中期前景來看，價格會下跌嗎？

Thanks for your question. It's incredibly important that we continue to understand that the investment dollars go into that wealth business to broaden and deepen the funnel flywheel that Sharon just described, whether it is putting more dollars in the Pro product in E*TRADE where we're also focused on upping deposits, whether it's investing in adjacent digital asset product, whether it's in deepening our relationships at the corporate workplace center or it's ultimately in our financial advisers, we're going to continue to put investment dollars into the system.

謝謝你的提問。我們必須繼續理解，投資資金將流入財富管理業務，以擴大和深化莎倫剛才所描述的漏斗飛輪，這一點至關重要。無論是向 E*TRADE 的 Pro 產品投入更多資金（我們也專注於提高存款），還是投資於相關的數位資產產品，無論是深化我們在企業工作場所中心的關係，還是最終投資於我們的財務顧問，我們都將繼續向該系統投入投資資金。

Now, whether that with continued operating leverage gets us to a number that is higher than 30% over time, let's see how it goes. But right now, it was important for everyone to see that we had a reported number in a reasonably friendly environment that was, I believe, 30.3%, but that is an output, not an input. So the continued input is our investment dollars to drive PBT growth. And what is most exciting about what the wealth team has done is to drive revenues and to drive overall growth in each piece of the funnel.

現在，透過持續的經營槓桿作用，能否讓我們最終達到 30% 以上的數字，讓我們拭目以待。但就目前而言，重要的是讓大家看到，在相對友善的環境下，我們公佈的數字是 30.3%，但這只是輸出，而不是輸入。因此，持續投入就是我們的投資資金，以推動稅前利潤成長。財富管理團隊最令人興奮的成就，在於推動了收入成長，並推動了整個銷售漏斗中每個環節的整體成長。

Got it. And I guess, just in terms of -- you mentioned a friendly environment, there's so much discussions around whether there's an AI bubble we are in the late '90s in terms of where we are in the cycle. Just talk to us, when you think about both sides of the business, investment banking, and as you're getting insight from how your clients on the wealth side are thinking about things, just how do you handicap that risk of where we might be in the cycle? And what has history taught us of what that implies for your revenue or growth outlook?

知道了。我想，就你提到的友善環境而言，關於人工智慧泡沫是否存在，有很多討論，就我們所處的周期而言，我們正處於 90 年代後期。請您和我們談談，當您考慮業務的兩個方面——投資銀行和財富管理客戶——並了解他們的想法時，您如何評估我們可能處於週期的哪個階段所帶來的風險？歷史經驗告訴我們，這會對您的收入或成長前景產生什麼影響？

So when we think about our use of AI, and what we're seeing is there are many places that one can use AI. It's not just around efficiency, but it's also productivity, both on the expense line but also on the revenue line. I tried to note three different examples at the beginning opening comments, and they were purposeful because they all represent different ways that one can begin to use AI from a full firm perspective.

所以當我們思考人工智慧的應用時，我們發現人工智慧可以在許多領域發揮作用。這不僅關乎效率，也關乎生產力，包括支出和收入兩面。我在開篇評論中嘗試列舉了三個不同的例子，這樣做是有目的的，因為它們都代表了從公司整體角度開始使用人工智慧的不同方式。

One is just going through code and being able to work faster. Make sure that we can be more efficient with our time. Coders can be more efficient as they go through lines of code that they're able to see and rewrite. And so that's one example that we can all kind of see across different firms and I think different institutions have talked about it.

一是能夠更快地閱讀程式碼。確保我們能夠更有效地利用時間。程式設計師在編寫程式碼時，如果能夠看到並重寫程式碼行，效率會更高。所以，這是一個我們可以在不同公司看到的例子，我認為不同的機構也討論過這個問題。

Then you have things that are specific to a Morgan Stanley, which might be around LeadIQ, and that's very revenue driven, right? So how do you give more time to an adviser. How do you make sure that you give more matches that produce better results. And that's how we've been using all sorts of technology on forward.

然後還有一些摩根士丹利特有的東西，像是 LeadIQ，而 LeadIQ 是非常以營收為導向的，對吧？那麼，如何才能抽出更多時間諮詢顧問呢？如何確保你提供的配對結果更好、匹配度更高？這就是我們一直以來運用各種技術向前發展的方式。

And then, you have things that you can see across all sectors. Parable is something that we've been doing really in finance, looking at our data, piloting it through and finding ways to summarize key data that other companies can also take advantage of. And so I think for -- you take a step back and your question is, well, what does it mean? There's a lot of ways to use this technology. It's extremely powerful. And this is another place where I think we really are just scratching the surface of what it can do.

然後，還有一些現像是所有領域都能看到的。寓言是我們一直在金融領域實踐的一種方式，我們分析數據，進行試點，並找到總結關鍵數據的方法，以便其他公司也能從中受益。所以我覺得──你退後一步，你的問題是，這代表什麼？這項技術有很多用途。它威力極為強大。而在這方面，我認為我們真的只是觸及了它功能的冰山一角。

Christian Bolu, Autonomous.

克里斯蒂安·博盧，自治。

I wanted to follow up on Wealth Management and your outlook for that business. Just given your leverage to private markets and technology sector through Solium, your Carta partnership, I'd imagine you should be an outsized beneficiary of the wealth creation around sort of the AI CapEx cycle. Curious how you see that? And then how does that influence your outlook for sort of 5% to 7% organic growth over time?

我想就財富管理業務以及您對該業務的展望進行後續跟進。鑑於您透過 Solium 和 Carta 的合作關係，在私募市場和科技領域擁有了影響力，我認為您應該會成為人工智慧資本支出週期財富創造的最大受益者。很好奇你是怎麼看待這件事的？那麼，這會對您預期未來 5% 到 7% 的自然成長產生什麼影響呢？

So when we think about private markets, we are obviously the largest provider of all the alternative space, yes, for the wealth management businesses, just given our overall aggregate size. It's about $250 billion of client assets.

所以當我們考慮私募市場時，顯然我們是所有另類投資領域中最大的提供者，是的，就財富管理業務而言，這完全是因為我們的整體規模。這相當於約2500億美元的客戶資產。

But on the forward, I think what's important here is that there's an education process. We don't look at it as something -- you're not going to necessarily flip the switch. There's obviously places that we can continue to see asset, asset growth and asset accumulation. And we're offering new products our clients, such as just evergreen products, products that allow for lower denomination size. But this is a journey, and it will take time as we think about the education process and reweighting or rebasing individuals portfolios. So absolutely a growth opportunity. But again, one that will take time.

但展望未來，我認為重要的是要有一個教育過程。我們不認為這是件小事——你不一定會按下開關。顯然，在某些領域，我們仍然可以繼續看到資產成長和資產累積。我們正在向客戶提供新產品，例如常青產品、允許更小面額的產品。但這是一個循序漸進的過程，我們需要時間來思考教育過程以及重新調整個人投資組合的權重或基準。所以這絕對是一個發展機會。但這同樣需要時間。

And then on equities, really nice growth there, and it's been a consistent pattern of share gains in that business for a while now. Just remind us again kind of what's driving share gains there? And then where do you see further opportunities going forward?

然後是股票方面，成長勢頭非常強勁，而且該行業的股價已經持續上漲了一段時間。請您再提醒一下，是什麼因素推動了市場佔有率的成長？那麼，您認為未來還有哪些發展機會呢？

So as it relates to equities, it's an incredible business. We've done an incredible amount of investing in our platform and our people and in also our global regions. Equities, more broadly, does speak to what we've talked about when we talk about durable share-based gains for ISG. This is a durable business where you have increases in prime brokerage balances. We have obviously spent the time looking at our end clients and looking at the end balances. But this is yet another place where you do see technology investment dollars going in. You see that on the derivative side, and you see that on some of the cash-based businesses and what we've offered internally in terms of trading tools to make our own business more efficient.

所以就股票而言，這真是一項了不起的生意。我們對我們的平台、員工以及全球各區域都進行了大量投資。更廣泛地說，股票確實印證了我們之前討論的 ISG 持久的股票收益。這是一個可持續發展的業務，你的主經紀帳戶餘額會不斷增長。我們顯然花了很多時間研究我們的終端客戶和最終帳目餘額。但這又是另一個可以看到科技投資資金流入的地方。在衍生性商品方面，你可以看到這一點；在一些現金交易業務中，你也可以看到這一點；在我們內部提供的交易工具方面，我們也能看到這一點，這些工具旨在提高我們自身業務的效率。

So for us, Christian, what's important is the consistency and the consistent growth that we've seen in that equities business. And I would be remiss if I don't mention, yet again, the strength of the global nature of this franchise. We talk a lot about our competitive moats. Those moats are not built immediately. So when we talk about these investment cycles, we've been investing in Asia throughout Asia for some time. In different periods of time, you see different periods of growth across that region. Sometimes it's Japan, sometimes it's China, sometimes it's India. And so that global reach and that investment is one that you're just seeing take place and take shape, I should say, as the global markets begin to reemerge in this capital market cycle.

所以對我們來說，克里斯蒂安，重要的是我們在股票業務中看到的穩定性和持續成長。如果我不再提及這個系列作品的全球影響力，那就太失職了。我們經常談論我們的競爭優勢。這些護城河不是一蹴可幾的。所以當我們談到這些投資週期時，我們已經在亞洲各地進行了一段時間的投資。在不同的時期，你會看到該地區不同的成長時期。有時是日本，有時是中國，有時是印度。因此，隨著全球市場在本輪資本市場週期中開始復甦，這種全球影響力和投資正在發生並逐漸成形。

Brennan Hawken, Bank of Montreal.

布倫南·霍肯，蒙特利爾銀行。

I'd love to drill into the Carta relationship. So you guys recently expanded that partnership. You made reference to it in your prepared remarks. Can you speak to the experience that you've had with Carta, prior to that, and your expectations for our larger relationships?

我很想深入研究Carta的關係。所以你們最近擴大了合作關係。你在事先準備好的發言稿中提到了這一點。您能否談談您之前與 Carta 的合作體驗，以及您對我們未來更廣泛合作關係的期望？

Yeah. It's really nice to hear from you, Brennan. So it's nice to hear you back on our calls. This has been a multipronged approach in terms of the Carta relationship. So as you know, Carta generally deals with the private markets side from the stock plan perspective. And you know that our platform deals with both the public and the private markets side.

是的。很高興收到你的來信，布倫南。很高興聽到你回覆我們的電話。就與《卡塔》的關係而言，這是一種多管齊下的方法。如您所知，Carta 通常從股票計劃的角度處理私募市場方面的業務。您也知道，我們的平台同時涉及公共市場和私人市場。

So where the original relationship started is a referral-based model. So as companies began to move from a private side to a public side, they would be referred to Morgan Stanley, and that's working. We've seen evidence. We've had referrals. We've had number of referrals since that original relationship was started. And we have seen conversions into our space from the public side already over the course of this year. So it's been a great experience.

所以，最初的合作關係是基於推薦的模式。因此，當公司開始從私有化轉向上市時，它們會被推薦給摩根士丹利，而且這種做法很有效。我們已經看到了證據。我們收到了一些推薦。自從建立最初合作關係以來，我們已經獲得了許多推薦客戶。今年以來，我們已經看到一些公眾人士將我們的空間改造成了其他用途。所以這是一次很棒的經驗。

But there's now a second prong of the approach. As you know, what makes our platform on the wealth management side stand out is the value of advice, explaining the value of advice to our clients, to our broader client base, which is a standout, we often call it a category of one. What Carta now does is it's been interested in being able to offer these services, not just to the individual founders or the top providers, the tops of the companies as they go from a private to a public state but throughout the entire journey.

但現在這種方法有了第二個方向。如您所知，我們平台在財富管理方面脫穎而出的原因在於諮詢的價值，以及向我們的客戶和更廣泛的客戶群解釋諮詢的價值，這非常突出，我們經常稱之為獨一無二的類別。Carta 現在所做的，是希望能夠提供這些服務，不僅面向個人創始人或頂級供應商，也面向從私有化到上市的公司的高層，而是面向整個轉型過程。

So we're offering our advice-based service to those individuals. And from that perspective, it also helps solidify some of the other work that we've been doing, right? We've done a lot of work on trying to service founders, on trying to service family offices. There's all different places when you can think about how we've grown our wealth management business in terms of the types of coverage we give to the individuals. And these -- this is just one more place where our relationship with Carta can be helpful, and it will allow us to better deepen relationships also with private companies.

因此，我們向這些人提供諮詢服務。從這個角度來看，這也有助於鞏固我們一直在做的其他一些工作，對吧？我們做了很多工作，努力為創辦人提供服務，並努力為家族辦公室提供服務。從各個方面來看，我們都可以思考我們是如何發展財富管理業務的，以及我們為個人提供的保險類型。而這——這只是我們與 Carta 的關係能夠發揮作用的另一個方面，它將使我們能夠更好地加深與私人公司的關係。

Excellent. Thanks for the warm welcome back. I appreciate it. When you think about that added access, right, plus the strong and established business that you have in Solium that has -- that is a little bit more private, I know you guys don't go -- you know what I mean. How much more substantial is that base versus 2021 when you last saw robust capital markets?

出色的。謝謝大家的熱情歡迎。謝謝。當你考慮到這種額外的便利，對吧，再加上你在索利姆擁有的強大而成熟的業務——那有點更私密，我知道你們不去——你們明白我的意思。與 2021 年（您上次看到強勁的資本市場）相比，目前的基數要大多少？

Well, I think that goes back -- I think it was Ebrahim. I can't remember, maybe Dan Fannon. The first question that we answered about NNA, it's just the beginning. I mean I don't know how else to say it. It's something when we look at what's going on in Workplace across new assets, across IPOs, these are all ways for us to build out the Integrated Firm. And we talked a lot about it over the course of the last two years and more recently over this year when we spoke about the Integrated Firm effort.

嗯，我想那要追溯到──我想是易卜拉欣。我記不清了，可能是丹‧範農。我們回答的關於NNA的第一個問題，只是個開始。我不知道還能怎麼說。當我們檢視 Workplace 在新資產、IPO 等方面的運作時，就會發現這些都是我們建構一體化公司的方式。在過去的兩年裡，我們多次討論過這個問題，最近在今年談到整合公司計畫時也再次提及。

This is a place that you're seeing that build from a wealth management creation side. We have people around it to help shepherd individuals across the entire firm as you think about Institutional Securities, think about underwriting, etc. So there's a lot more to go in the entire ecosystem of being able to work with companies and their founders, understand them from beginning to end, and then bring them to market and service them throughout the life cycle of that corporation.

這是一個從財富管理創造角度出發，逐步發展壯大的地方。我們有專人負責指導公司內部各方面的人員，例如機構證券、承銷等等。因此，要與公司及其創始人合作，從頭到尾了解他們，然後將他們推向市場，並在公司整個生命週期中為他們提供服務，整個生態系統還有很多工作要做。

Glenn Schorr, Evercore.

Glenn Schorr，Evercore。

A quick one first. Sharon, I was very interested by your comment on the Parametric inflows and the large partnership with third-party investment adviser. So my question is Parametric has grown a lot, and I feel like we're still scratching the surface. But are you -- and that was a direct thing and direct sales into your wealth channel. Can you differentiate your growth mindset going forward for, a; penetrating your huge client base and then b; is there a big white label opportunity that this is starting to scratch the surface itself?

先快速回答一個問題。Sharon，我對你關於 Parametric 資金流入以及與第三方投資顧問的大型合作的評論非常感興趣。所以我的問題是，參數化技術發展迅速，但我感覺我們仍然只是觸及了冰山一角。但是，你是嗎？ ——這是直接的，是直接銷售到你的財富管道。展望未來，您能否區分一下您的成長型思維，一方面是深入挖掘您龐大的客戶群，另一方面是是否存在一個巨大的白標機會，而這僅僅是冰山一角？

So the way that I would describe it is what you're seeing is you have our wealth channel where you've seen growth, but that -- and that has been based on multiple years of what we call tax university. So when we first bought Parametric, we worked within our system to explain the product and the benefits of what you can use sort of tax harvesting, et cetera, within your portfolio, how is Parametric used to our financial advisers. So our financial advisers started to use it more and better understand that actual product. So that's one channel of growth.

所以，我的描述方式是，你現在看到的是我們的財富管道，你看到了成長，但這——而且這是基於我們所謂的稅務大學多年來的積累。所以，當我們第一次購買 Parametric 時，我們透過我們的系統來解釋該產品及其優勢，例如在您的投資組合中如何使用稅收優惠等，以及 Parametric 是如何用於您的投資組合的，並向我們的財務顧問解釋 Parametric 的使用方法。因此，我們的財務顧問開始更多地使用它，並更好地了解該產品的實際情況。這是成長管道之一。

Then you have other retail distribution channels that are also using it. And what I spoke to specifically here that was a newer opportunity that we haven't seen before in such size, is we started to work with third-party asset managers as well. We had a press release out close to a year ago at this point where we did discuss that this is something we're working towards. And we've talked about different types of asset managers who can look at their own portfolios and say, for my own portfolio and the assets that I cover, maybe this would be a good tool. And that's what we saw in terms of the inflow.

此外，還有其他零售分銷管道也在使用它。我在這裡特別提到的是一個以前從未見過的、規模如此之大的新機遇，那就是我們開始與第三方資產管理公司合作。大約一年前，我們發布了一份新聞稿，其中討論了我們正在努力實現的目標。我們已經討論過不同類型的資產管理人，他們可以審視自己的投資組合，然後說，對於我自己的投資組合和我所涵蓋的資產來說，這或許是一個不錯的工具。這就是我們在流入方面所看到的。

Those will be lumpier. We are not saying that that's necessarily something that you're going to see every quarter, which is why we called it out. But it's certainly another place in another channel where we see the opportunity for Parametric over time.

那些會比較粗糙。我們並不是說每季都會出現這種情況，所以我們才特意提了一下。但隨著時間的推移，我們看到了參數化技術在另一個管道的另一個發展機會。

Okay. Awesome. I appreciate that. Bigger picture, Ted, I'm curious. I agree with everything you said. The regulatory capital framework is hopefully going to be more balanced. You've got 80 basis points refund recently. As you mentioned, you have over 300 excess capital and you're making tons of money. So I think the buyback and dividends are good.

好的。驚人的。我很感激。泰德，我很好奇，從更宏觀的角度來看這個問題。我完全同意你說的。希望監理資本框架能夠更加平衡。您最近獲得了 80 個基點的退款。正如你所說，你有超過300的閒置資金，而且你賺了很多錢。所以我認為股票回購和分紅都是好事。

But my big question is, are there areas that you could deploy more capital at a higher pace into to drive growth. Your return on tangible equity is hardly anything to complain about, but it is a big denominator. Are there areas that you could deploy at a faster pace, whether it be organic or inorganic, that would just broaden the platform, make the company better, drive future growth?

但我最大的疑問是，是否有可以加快投資步伐、投入更多資金推動成長的領域？你的有形權益報酬率雖然沒什麼好抱怨的，但它是一個很大的分母。是否有一些領域可以加快部署速度，無論是透過有機成長還是無機成長，從而拓寬平台，使公司變得更好，並推動未來的成長？

Well, Glenn, as you say, that's the key question. The dividend is now $1 a share. That is sacrosanct, and we'll continue to grow that along. The buyback has been opportunistic. We'll continue to buy shares back, maybe a slightly higher cadence, but we're going to continue to view that as a tactical lever. As you know, over the last year plus, we've accreted $7 billion, $8 billion, $10 billion of capital dating back a number of quarters. So that, of course, has been effectively capital put in the piggy bank.

格倫，正如你所說，這才是關鍵問題。現在每股派息1美元。這是神聖不可侵犯的，我們會繼續推動它發展。這次回購是投機取巧的行為。我們將繼續回購股票，也許頻率會稍微提高一些，但我們仍將回購視為戰術手段。如你所知，在過去一年多的時間裡，我們已經累積了 70 億美元、80 億美元、100 億美元的資本，這些資本可以追溯到好幾個季度以前。所以，這當然就相當於存入儲蓄罐裡的資金了。

As we think about investment, you heard Sharon talk about a whole bunch of that. The best uses of capital continue to be internal investment into the business and to the Integrated Firm. Those are -- they can either be adjacent investments or they can be a little more orthogonal like digital assets or something that is kind of new and offers diversification effect, but they're all in the cylinders of the strategy around the Wealth and Investment Manager and then the investment bank.

當我們談到投資時，你肯定也聽莎倫談過很多相關話題。資本的最佳用途仍然是對企業內部和一體化公司進行投資。這些投資可以是鄰近投資，也可以是像數位資產或一些比較新穎且能提供多元化效果的投資，但它們都屬於財富和投資經理人以及投資銀行的策略框架之內。

The mantra has been to scale with our key clients to build out product capabilities to invest in technologies. That's why I thought it was great that Sharon went into some detail on some of the technologies that are being born as we speak. Some of them are efficiency driven, some of them are effectiveness driven.

我們的宗旨是與主要客戶共同發展，建立產品能力，並投資於技術。所以我認為莎倫詳細介紹一些正在誕生的技術非常棒。有些企業以效率為導向，有些企業以效果為導向。

If you think about the kind of locus of where the Integrated Firm is, it's around the key decision-makers at these banking or asset management clients or our wealth management clients where they are the primary decision-maker for strategic financing or catalyst events, which, of course, dovetails with the investment banking wave that is kicking in now.

如果你思考一下綜合公司所處的領域，你會發現它圍繞著這些銀行或資產管理客戶或財富管理客戶的關鍵決策者展開，他們是戰略融資或催化事件的主要決策者，這當然與目前正在興起的投資銀行浪潮不謀而合。

And we are investing a lot of dollars, whether it's in the markets business intra-quarter or it is through our wealth clients, either directly or indirectly. So E*TRADE Pro is effectively an investment. It just happens to be an internal one. Sharon has spoken at some length around Workplace and connectivity of private companies in Carta. Think about what we're doing with Zerohash and building out the full wallet.

我們正在投入大量資金，無論是在季度內的市場業務中，還是透過我們的財富客戶，無論是直接投資還是間接投資。因此，E*TRADE Pro 實際上是一種投資。碰巧這是一個內部問題。Sharon 在 Carta 上就工作場所和私人公司的互聯互通問題進行了相當詳細的發言。想想我們正在用 Zerohash 做什麼，以及如何建立完整的錢包。

Some of this stuff, we can either harkening back to the equities days of 15 years ago. We might buy, we might build, we might lease. But those are investments that are made inside the business and eventually for the benefit of our financial advisers. We're also building out our bank. That is a key channel that we are much focused on, as you know, Glenn, and that's gotten a lot of dollars and attention too.

有些事情，我們可以回想起15年前的股票市場時代。我們可能會購買，可能會建造，也可能會租賃。但這些都是企業內部進行的投資，最終是為了我們財務顧問的利益。我們也在擴大我們的銀行。如你所知，格倫，這是我們非常關注的關鍵管道，它也獲得了大量的資金和關注。

So the organic opportunity is the one that clears the bar and checks the most boxes. And that's going to be the continuing strong bias of the group. That having been said, we are well aware of the capital cushion. We do have, thanks to the better part of 15 years of Mr. Gorman, we have been well versed and trained around the thinking on the inorganic, whether it fits in the strategy, whether the culture is right, whether the timing makes sense and then ultimately whether the price works. Strategy, culture, timing, price.

因此，自然成長的機會是那些符合所有標準、滿足最多條件的機會。而這將會是該群體持續存在的強烈偏見。儘管如此，我們非常清楚自身的資本緩衝能力。多虧了戈爾曼先生近 15 年的指導，我們對無機增長的思考方式有了深入的了解和訓練，包括它是否符合戰略、文化是否合適、時機是否合理，以及最終價格是否合理。策略、文化、時機、價格。

And right now, there is a lot of product that is coming at us. But in virtually every case, Glenn, we feel we can do the build internally, organically. And for the last two years, I think you'd agree, what's been most important in the delivery of our management team, which has worked together for 10, 15, 20 years, beginning, of course, with Dan and Andy, leading the firm and then Sharon, Eric, Charles and then the rest of the operating committee, that for the last two years, we've been focused on saying what we're going to do and putting up the numbers.

現在，我們面臨著大量的產品湧入市場。但格倫，幾乎在所有情況下，我們都覺得我們可以在內部、有機地完成建設。我想您也會同意，在過去的兩年裡，我們管理團隊最重要的工作是明確我們要做什麼，並拿出實際的表現。這個團隊已經合作了 10 年、15 年、20 年，當然，最初是由 Dan 和 Andy 領導公司，然後是 Sharon、Eric、Charles 以及營運委員會的其他成員。

And that hasn't been at the total expense of the inorganic, but we have felt comfortable continuing to make the case that there is growth, both in Wealth and Investment Management and then durably inside the investment bank, and that the sum of those two would be greater than the whole in the context of the Integrated Firm, that it would not just be kind of salesy, but it would be something that, in the right kind of market environment, would offer operating leverage.

這並沒有完全以犧牲非有機成長為代價，但我們有信心繼續證明，財富和投資管理以及投資銀行內部都存在成長，而且在一體化公司的背景下，這兩者的總和將大於整體，這不僅僅是銷售話術，而且在合適的市場環境下，它將提供營運槓桿。

So in a sense, it's been the little picture. The little picture of both kind of squireling away from chest nuts, but then also building out the income statement, making sure that there's manifestly operating leverage against the uncertainty of geopolitics and transitioning economy. And then over time, we can consider carefully whether the inorganic ticks all four boxes: strategy, culture, timing, price, and whether we want to fold something in.

所以從某種意義上來說，它展現的是一幅小圖景。這張小圖既展現了某種程度上的「藏匿栗子」行為，又展現了對損益表的完善，確保了在應對地緣政治和經濟轉型的不確定性方面，擁有明顯的營運槓桿。然後隨著時間的推移，我們可以仔細考慮無機物是否符合所有四個條件：策略、文化、時機、價格，以及我們是否想整合某些東西。

As you well know, this firm has successfully integrated Smith Barney, Solium, E*TRADE and Eaton Vance, but there is such a thing as winners curse in the financial services space, and we were not about to make that mistake. We don't need to put up a print for the sake of it. We are very excited by the way, on our announcement on Zerohash. We think it's great. We're building out the full wallet, and we will be ready to go as we move into 2026.

如你所知，這家公司已經成功整合了史密斯·巴尼、索利姆、E*TRADE 和伊頓萬斯，但在金融服務領域存在著「贏家詛咒」的說法，我們絕不會犯這樣的錯誤。我們沒必要為了張貼而張貼。順便說一句，我們對在 Zerohash 上發布的公告感到非常興奮。我們覺得很棒。我們正在完善整個錢包，到 2026 年我們將做好準備。

But whether we continue to compound the wealth and asset management base through $10 trillion organically or whether we do something inorganically, it will have to fit the test. But I wanted to give you a sense that, of course, we think very much about the big picture, forest for the trees, but we also, in this two-year period, have been very much focused on the little picture, the spec on the rug. And making sure that we have numbers that are clean and that sustain the valuation that the market has awarded us, and then we move forward with a capital buffer that is 250 basis points to 300 basis points plus.

但是，無論我們是透過有機成長的方式將財富和資產管理基礎擴大到 10 兆美元，還是透過無機成長的方式，都必須經得起考驗。但我希望讓你們感受到，我們當然會著眼大局，只見樹木不見森林，但在這兩年裡，我們也一直非常關注細節，關注地毯上的斑點。確保我們的財務數據清晰準確，能夠維持市場給予我們的估值，然後我們再以 250 到 300 個基點以上的資本緩衝繼續前進。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

瑞銀集團的 Erika Najarian。

I just had one follow-up question on the back -- the first question on the Investment Banking backlog. As we think about the sustainability of the Investment Banking strength, I can't help but notice that, of course, markets are at all-time highs and spreads are quite tight. It seems like the right precondition for the realization pipeline for sponsors to also take hold. And Ted, I'm just wondering, what other preconditions do you think are needed for that to be -- for the realization pipeline to spill into '26 activity?

我還有一個後續問題要問──這是投資銀行積壓工作的第一個問題。當我們思考投資銀行實力的可持續性時，我不禁注意到，當然，目前市場處於歷史高位，利差也相當小。這似乎是贊助商實現目標的正確前提條件。泰德，我只是想知道，你認為要實現這個目標，還需要哪些先決條件──才能讓實現流程延伸到 2026 年的活動？

We're seeing it. So thank you, Erika, for the question. But we're beginning to see it already. We saw it in the third quarter, and it continues to be a big part of our sort of backlog as you think about and pipeline for the forward. And the reason that we think that it's coming to fruition is as you said, we are seeing the capital markets kick in. As Ted said, he said the capital flywheel is working. The capital markets flywheel is working.

我們看到了。謝謝你，艾麗卡，提出了這個問題。但我們已經開始看到這種趨勢了。我們在第三季就看到了這一點，而且隨著我們展望未來，它仍然是我們積壓訂單和項目儲備的重要組成部分。我們認為它即將實現的原因是，正如你所說，我們看到資本市場開始發揮作用。正如泰德所說，資本飛輪正在發揮作用。資本市場的飛輪效應正在發揮作用。

Specifically, when we have IPOs, that provides another lane for exit. And so that provides two sort of places that a financial sponsor can look, both an acquisition opportunity and exit from the perspective of advisory or from the perspective of IPO. And so what we've seen is that that's been helpful to help the engagement, and it's certainly something that's already beginning to play out in the marketplace.

具體來說，當我們進行首次公開發行（IPO）時，就提供了另一條退出途徑。因此，財務贊助商可以從兩個方面尋找機會，既可以從諮詢的角度尋找收購機會，也可以從首次公開發行 (IPO) 的角度尋找退出機會。因此，我們看到，這有助於提高用戶參與度，而這無疑已經在市場上開始顯現成效。

And the bigger picture here is that being a private company, a successful private company over the last number of years, as you know, Erika, the old rule of thumb was when you had a certain number of beneficial owners or a certain level of wealth created, you need it to go public if for no other reason defease employee stock option plans and to have a currency to get bigger through acquisition. The reality is that the democratization of the private channel and the ability for companies to stay private longer has been one that has very much taken hold and for lack of better words, been institutionalized over the last 5, 10 years.

而從更宏觀的角度來看，正如你所知，艾麗卡，過去幾年裡，私人公司，尤其是成功的私人公司，過去的經驗法則是，當你擁有一定數量的受益所有人或創造了一定水平的財富時，你就需要上市，即使沒有其他原因，也需要上市來解除員工股票期權計劃，並獲得通過收購規模擴大的貨幣。事實上，在過去的 5 到 10 年裡，私人管道的民主化以及公司保持私有狀態更長時間的能力已經根深蒂固，用通俗的話來說，已經制度化了。

So being a private company, a good private company, has been a good thing. And the Street has been helpful in offering sponsors additional space beyond the 10-year fund to continue to keep the winners in-house.

所以，成為一家私人公司，優秀的私人公司，是一件好事。而且，華爾街也為贊助商提供了超出 10 年基金期限的額外空間，以便繼續將獲獎者留在公司內部。

At the same time, being a public company has not been that great. The regulation got, as you know, much tougher. And the -- just sort of the reality of being a mid-cap or even small cap company that may be orphaned and still has to comply with the regulatory burden is tough.

同時，成為上市公司並非一帆風順。如你所知，監管變得更加嚴格了。而現實情況是，對於一家中小型公司來說，如果該公司被遺棄，仍然需要承擔監管負擔，那將非常艱難。

So one of the things that we think is going on here is that with some rebalancing of the regulatory framework, the ability to go public, the ability to go public perhaps earlier and to draw the attention of new issue investors who are not cleaning up a secondary sale of a financial sponsor, but in our strategic investor, but in fact, are coming in where there's still plenty of growth in a sort of going public discount premium that makes it an exciting asset class again, we're optimistic about that.

所以我們認為，目前的情況之一是，隨著監管框架的重新平衡，上市的可能性增加，上市時間可能會提前，吸引新發行投資者的注意。這些投資者並非在清理金融機構的二級市場交易，而是作為戰略投資者，他們實際上是在上市折價溢價仍然存在大量增長空間的地方入場，這使得上市再次成為一個令人興奮的資產類別，我們對此持樂觀態度。

The reality is the sponsors have not moved as fast because they've had the ability to sustain these capital structures as private companies that has its pluses, that has its minuses. What's changed though is that as we -- notwithstanding all of the concerns with elements of the three-pronged strategy, the demonstrated success of Prong 1 and now a much Prong 2 and clearly Prong 3, ie, deregulation, which will be very much a pro-business and hopefully pro-broader economy phenomenon, makes it more interesting for the strategic buyer to -- or the seller, in fact, if they want to purify their portfolio to go in and do something.

現實情況是，發起人行動不夠迅速，因為他們有能力以私人公司的形式維持這些資本結構，這有利有弊。不過，變化在於——儘管我們對三管齊下的戰略的各個方面都存在擔憂，但第一管齊下的成功，以及現在第二管齊下的成功，還有第三管齊下（即放鬆管制），這將是一個非常有利於商業發展，並有望促進整體經濟發展的現象，這使得戰略買家——或者實際上，如果賣家想要淨化他們的投資組合，他們也可以進入這個領域並採取行動。

To do something on a cross-border basis, to know that there are regulators going to give it a thumbs up or thumbs down versus timing it for uncertain periods. There may be deals in the national interest that won't go through. But the entire proposition of mid- to large to mega cap M&A has been one that has not been on the table for a long time. If there's going to be large cap M&A across growth industries around the world, there will also be an IPO market as they work symbiotically in terms of attracting growth capital to grow the winners.

進行跨境活動時，要知道會有監管機構批准或否決，而不是選擇在不確定的時期進行。有些符合國家利益的交易可能最終無法達成。但中大型乃至超大型企業的併購方案，長期以來一直沒有被提上議程。如果全球各成長型產業出現大規模併購，那麼也必然會出現IPO市場，因為它們在吸引成長資本、協助贏家成長方面具有共生關係。

Devin Ryan, Citizens.

德文·瑞安，市民。

I want to start with a question on Wealth Management net interest income. Obviously, it really benefited as short-term rates rose in prior years. And I heard Sharon's comment for a modest increase in NII in 4Q even as I said, is now starting to lower rates. And so I think what's becoming more clear is there's a lot of natural hedges in the model there, margin balances, sec lending, pledged assets, stabilization and the brokerage suite balances.

我想先問一個關於財富管理淨利息收入的問題。顯然，由於前幾年短期利率上升，該公司從中受益匪淺。我聽到莎倫評論說，儘管我說過，第四季度淨利息收入 (NII) 略有增長，但現在利率開始下降。所以我覺得越來越清楚的是，該模型中有很多天然的對沖措施，例如保證金餘額、證券借貸、質押資產、穩定措施和經紀業務餘額。

So I'm just curious, as we think about rates now starting to move lower and perhaps the first 100 basis points of cuts, do you see a scenario where GWM NII can actually grow? And then can you just talk a little bit more about some of these hedge impacts as we get the other side of this?

所以我很好奇，考慮到利率現在開始走低，甚至可能已經下調了 100 個基點，您認為長城金融的淨利息收入有可能成長嗎？那麼，在我們看到事情的另一面之後，您能否再詳細談談這些對沖措施的影響呢？

Yeah, absolutely. I'll take the question. We will revisit 2026 guidance in 2026. But sitting from where we are today, yes, there is room for an inflection as you continue to move higher. You could ask me, well, how could you -- to your point, what are these offsets, and how can you get there even if rates begin to move down? Of course, it will depend on how quickly rates move. And if it's priced as it is from the forward curve we sit in today. So all of my answers are predicated on that on kind of this moment in time.

是的，絕對的。我來回答這個問題。我們將於 2026 年重新審視 2026 年的指導方針。但就我們目前所處的位置而言，是的，隨著你不斷向上攀登，確實存在著轉折點。你可能會問我，嗯，你怎麼能──正如你所說，這些抵銷措施是什麼，即使利率開始下降，你又該如何實現目標呢？當然，這取決於利率變動的速度。如果價格按照我們目前所處的遠期曲線來看，情況就是如此。所以我所有的回答都是基於此時此刻的情況。

But at this moment in time, the reason that you can have that outlook really has to do with the lending balances that we've seen and the consistent growth in lending balances. SBLs, for example, is something that I talked about this quarter. I think we've talked about it over the course of the last couple of quarters and a place of growth. And that is coming not just from existing clients. So you could say, well, your existing clients, aren't they tapped out. We're getting new balances. We're getting new client participation. And there's more to do to help the bank itself grow, as Ted said.

但就目前而言，之所以會有這種看法，實際上是因為我們看到的貸款餘額以及貸款餘額的持續成長。例如，SBL（小型企業貸款）就是我本季談到的一個主題。我認為在過去的幾個季度裡，我們已經討論過這個問題，這是一個發展空間。而且這不僅來自現有客戶。所以你可以說，嗯，你現有的客戶是不是已經筋疲力盡了。我們正在進行新的平衡調整。我們正在獲得新的客戶參與。正如泰德所說，還有更多工作要做，才能幫助銀行本身發展壯大。

So that's a place where you can have that potential growth. The other offset that I would note to you is historically, when we've seen rates come down, we've also seen an increase in balances. So yes, there's a trade-off in terms of how quickly will those interest rates come down and what will that mean. But that is from a sense of modeled behavior, another natural point than you could see in terms of a potential upside rather than downside on the forward.

所以，那裡是一個可以讓你獲得潛在發展的地方。我還想指出一點，從歷史數據來看，當利率下降時，我們也看到餘額增加。所以，利率下降的速度以及下降帶來的後果，確實有權衡取捨。但這是從一個模擬行為的角度來看的，這是另一個自然的觀點，你可以從潛在的上漲空間而不是下跌空間的角度來看未來。

That's great color. And just a quick follow-up on the equities trading results. Obviously, it feels like the bar keeps moving higher here. And you referenced the growth in financing and kind of record results there. Can you just give us a sense of kind of what the growth function has looked like in financing relative to intermediation over the past couple of years? And then just what the mix kind of looks like there today and how that's evolved as well? Because it just feels like you're building kind of a higher base overall in equities, and I'd love to just get a little more sense there.

顏色真好看。最後，簡單跟進一下股票交易結果。顯然，這裡的標準似乎一直在提高。你也提到了融資方面的成長以及由此取得的創紀錄的表現。能否簡要介紹一下過去幾年融資領域相對於仲介業務的成長情況？那麼，如今這種組合的構成是什麼樣的，以及它又是如何演變的呢？因為感覺你正在建立一個更高的股票投資基礎，我很想更深入地了解這方面的情況。

Certainly. I mean, we talked about record balances in financing, and we talked about that. That should -- obviously, you should think about that relative to where markets are. You're gaining client share, wallet share, but you're also benefiting -- one is benefiting from increased balances as the markets have risen.

當然。我的意思是，我們討論了融資方面創紀錄的餘額，我們也談到了這一點。顯然，你應該結合市場現狀來考慮這個問題。你不僅獲得了客戶份額和錢包份額，而且還從中受益——隨著市場上漲，你的帳戶餘額也增加了。

As it relates to the more transactional level of activity, that's going to really be based on what's going on in the marketplace in that time, and you can see that more based on a volume-driven approach, ie, our volumes rising or are they falling and client activity more broadly. So that might be more idiosyncratic to your point. And so yes, the base will rise as those prime brokerage balances will rise, assuming that there's not sort of some major market decline, which would cause contraction in balances.

至於更偏向交易層面的活動，這實際上取決於當時的市場情況，你可以看到這更多地取決於交易量驅動的方法，即我們的交易量是上升還是下降，以及更廣泛的客戶活動。所以這或許更能體現你的獨特觀點。所以，是的，隨著主要經紀商餘額的增加，基數也會增加，前提是市場沒有出現重大下跌，否則餘額就會收縮。

Yeah. I mean, to echo that, we're at 6,700 S&P and index asset price highs around the world. So if there is a deleveraging event or just lower, let's say, there's a sort of recession scare and the markets are lower, well, by definition, the financing revenues will be lower. I mean, they are linked in that sense, as you know, inextricably.

是的。我的意思是，正如我之前所說，目前全球標普500指數和指數資產價格均處於高位，達到6700點。因此，如果出現去槓桿化事件或市場走低，比如說，出現某種衰退恐慌，市場走低，那麼根據定義，融資收入就會下降。我的意思是，從這個意義上講，它們是密不可分的。

What is an interesting development, though, inside of equities, is, first of all, as global as ever, Sharon has talked about, we have a business that is thriving, both in Asia, which is, as you know, multiple locations, and then also in Europe, again, multiple locations. But then also the development of our derivatives business, liquid derivatives and the cash business, once thought to be one that would be totally electronified.

不過，在股票市場內部，一個有趣的進展是，首先，正如莎倫所說，我們的業務一如既往地全球化，在亞洲（如您所知，我們在多個地點）和歐洲（同樣，我們在多個地點）都蓬勃發展。但同時，我們的衍生性商品業務、流動性衍生性商品和現金業務也得到了發展，而這些業務一度被認為將完全電子化。

That is being run very much as a barbell with the best-in-class MSET product, as you're aware of, but also one where the high-touch old school research sales-driven product with a world-class research department with folks who have been at Morgan Stanley for 20, 25, 30 years, who are embedded with our asset managers and are able to help them capitalize in a market now that is rewarding dispersion across strategies and across waiting.

如您所知，我們的產品線與一流的MSET產品線非常相似，但同時也擁有高觸達的傳統研究型銷售驅動產品線，其世界一流的研究部門擁有在摩根士丹利工作了20、25、30年的員工，他們與我們的資產經理緊密合作，能夠幫助他們在當前這個獎勵投資策略和等待機會的市場中獲利。

So the first time in a generation, you have real dispersion amongst our clients, which means they are looking for intellectual capital. We can offer that. And that there is real ability now to monetize that, not just in the classic financing pie but also across cash and derivatives.

所以，一代人以來第一次，我們的客戶群真正分散開來，這意味著他們正在尋找知識資本。我們可以提供這項服務。現在確實有能力將其貨幣化，不僅在傳統的融資領域，而且在現金和衍生性商品領域也是如此。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

麥克梅奧，富國銀行。

Ted, in the past, you said it's the moment of, I think, ”wow”. I guess it's playing out, and you've mentioned IPOs, mergers, the flywheel. You mentioned US, Europe, Asia, mid, large, major corporates. So it seems like a lot is going on. But I think the question is, can you size where we are in the capital market cycle? Like what inning are we in? Are you overearning, underearning? Just if you could dimension this for us.

泰德，過去你說過，我認為，這是「哇」的時刻。我想這正在發生，你也提到了IPO、合併、飛輪效應。你提到了美國、歐洲、亞洲、中型、大型、主要企業。看來發生了很多事。但我認為問題在於，你能準確判斷我們目前處於資本市場週期的哪個階段嗎？我們現在進行到第幾局了？你的收入是過高還是過低？能否請您幫我們量一下尺寸？

Well, I mean, you've been at this long enough to know that the typical answer that one would give would be driven by where we are in the economic cycle. And I'm just not sure it's working that way this time. There is clearly pent-up supply of product and idea flow that, as we've talked about, stems back from the earliest days of the pandemic, whether it's embedded in sponsor portfolios or it has been sort of ideas in the making inside of the EU or Greater China or Japan or obviously in the United States. So some of that inventory is meant to come.

嗯，我的意思是，你從事這行這麼久，應該知道人們通常會給出的答案取決於我們所處的經濟週期階段。但我不太確定這次是否也會如此。顯然，產品和創意的供應已經積壓，正如我們之前討論過的，這種積壓可以追溯到疫情爆發初期，無論是贊助商的產品組合，還是歐盟、大中華區、日本，當然還有美國正在醞釀的創意。所以部分庫存將會到貨。

There's also the reality of almost like a (inaudible), big size creates category killers, and the regulatory kibosh on large-cap M&A has also been kind of an unnatural constraint to the supply of large-cap mergers that now need to happen to defease the cost of AI. So I think those are all tailwinds.

還有一種現實情況是，規模龐大的公司往往會成為行業殺手，而監管機構對大型併購的限制也對大型併購的供應造成了一種不自然的限制，而這些併購現在是為了降低人工智慧的成本而必須進行的。所以我認為這些都是有利因素。

What I am less certain about and I wouldn't want to be caught on the wrong side of kind of nebulent take on the world is there is a lot of geopolitical uncertainty by definition. And there is considerable uncertainty around how a K economy manifests itself in terms of Fed policy and then fiscal response function. I mean, to just ignore that would be silly. And the markets have come a long way.

我不太確定的是，而且我也不想因為對世界這種模糊不清的看法而陷入錯誤的境地，那就是地緣政治本身就存在著許多不確定性。對於 K 型經濟體在聯準會政策和財政應對措施方面的表現方式，目前存在相當大的不確定性。我的意思是，就這麼忽略它就太愚蠢了。市場已經發生了翻天覆地的變化。

And then there's also the reality that the private capital class has been democratized over a relatively short period of time. So there will be occasions where folks are going to find out things they don't like around liquidity or issues, whether, by the way, those are public or private companies.

此外，還有一個現實是，私人資本階層在相對較短的時間內已經實現了民主化。因此，總是會有一些時候，人們會發現一些他們不喜歡的流動性問題或其他問題，順便說一句，無論這些公司是上市公司還是私人公司。

So I don't think it's just a blue sky, all boats steaming. What I do think is that for the first time in a long time, the largest investment banks that have global enterprises, that have invested in world-class corporate finance bankers who can offer the full set of global idea flow and then risk management around uncertainty through an M&A announcement, which is not just regulatory uncertainty but it could be foreign exchange. It could be the hedging of interest rates. And then through to the complexity of a rights offering or a sub-IPO, that entire daisy chain, Mike, probably takes us back to something that feels like the mid-90s, for example.

所以我覺得這不只是晴空萬裡、船隻揚帆起航那麼簡單。我認為，多年來第一次，那些擁有全球企業的大型投資銀行，投資了世界一流的企業融資銀行家，他們能夠提供全套全球理念，並透過併購公告來管理不確定性帶來的風險，這不僅包括監管方面的不確定性，還可能包括外匯方面的不確定性。這可能是利率對沖。然後，再到配股或次級IPO的複雜性，麥克，整個鏈條可能會讓我們回想起上世紀90年代中期的情況。

It could take us back to periods that are in the mid-00s before credit got out of hand, where you have real companies that are getting out and doing back to basis corporate finance. The difference now is you need the full kit, you need the full global support. And it has been, as you've pointed out and rightly pointed out, a lot of talk about a lot of green shoots for a heck of a long time. So some folks have blinked and other folks have continued to invest. And we feel good about that opportunity over the next three to five years.

這可能會讓我們回到 2000 年代中期信貸失控之前的時期，那時真正的公司正在擺脫困境，回歸基本的企業融資模式。現在的不同之處在於，你需要全套設備，你需要全球範圍內的支援。正如你所指出的，而且你也正確地指出，長期以來，人們一直在談論很多積極的跡象。所以有些人已經放棄了，而有些人則繼續投資。我們對未來三到五年的發展機會感到樂觀。

But will there be periods where the windows could well shut because the geopolitical uncertainty takes us to risk off or asset prices correct? Absolutely. In which case -- which companies you bank, which ideas are going to actually be the ones that win the day, that's where winning and losing is going to be made amongst the global investment banking group.

但是，是否會有一些時期，由於地緣政治的不確定性導致我們規避風險或資產價格回調，導致投資窗口關閉？絕對地。在這種情況下──你為哪些公司提供銀行服務，哪些理念最終會勝出，這才是全球投資銀行集團成敗的關鍵。

So you're staffing and resourcing for this capital market cycle for the next three or for years or so?

所以你們是在為未來三到幾年的資本市場週期配備人員和資源嗎？

Yeah. We have the kind of tension inside where, on the one hand, we have an installed base because as you know, introducing new bankers on what is sort of the longest sale, it's like a financial adviser. This is like the key event for the CEO, the CFO, the founder. They don't want to meet someone new. So the installed base has to have been there, which is why a lot of the hiring we did, we did over the last three to four years.

是的。我們內部存在著一種緊張關係，一方面，我們有既定的客戶基礎，因為你知道，在某種意義上來說，引入新的銀行家進行最長的銷售，就像聘請財務顧問一樣。這對執行長、財務長和創辦人來說，就像是一件大事。他們不想認識新朋友。所以，一定已經累積了一定的使用者基礎，這也是為什麼我們在過去三、四年裡進行了大量的招募工作。

On the other hand, you don't want to overhire because you know that investment banks tend to behave procyclically. So is there some tension in the system from folks who want us to have more bodies in front of $3 billion to $5 billion market cap companies to get that sell side, yes, there is. And I think that's a good thing.

另一方面，你也不想過度招聘，因為你知道投資銀行的趨勢往往具有順週期性。所以，對於那些希望我們派更多人到市值 30 億至 50 億美元的公司面前進行賣方談判的人來說，這個體系中是否存在一些緊張局勢？是的，確實存在。我認為這是一件好事。

When the tension is like 3, 4, that feels right. If it's 1, that means you're probably overdone. And as you would point out, then you've got a purge and reset, and it kind of messes up the narrative. And if it's a 7 or 8, that means, obviously, we haven't made a decision about where we want to have leadership. And we want to have leadership in the core trusted adviser bracket.

當張力在 3、4 左右時，感覺就對了。如果是 1，那就表示你可能吃過頭了。正如你所指出的，這樣一來，就需要進行清洗和重置，這會破壞敘事結構。如果結果是 7 或 8，那顯然意味著我們還沒有決定領導階層應該設在哪裡。我們希望在核心可信賴顧問群中擁有領導地位。

The Integrated Firm proposition, of course, is that you may be a trusted adviser, a founder, and that founder may have a relationship with a wealth manager, and that wealth manager then can work with the investment banker. And it's not forced behavior. It's behavior that is something that is a natural because we've been at it together for a long time.

當然，一體化公司的理念是，您可以是一位值得信賴的顧問、一位創辦人，而這位創辦人可能與一位財富管理者有聯繫，然後這位財富管理者可以與投資銀行家合作。而且這不是被迫的行為。這種行為很自然，因為我們一起相處很久了。

Chris McGratty, KBW.

克里斯·麥格拉蒂，KBW。

Ted, you talked about the 300 basis points of excess relative to minimums. I guess a two-part question, just a follow up. Number one, what's the right level of management buffer there? How that might be evolving, and perhaps the algebra behind that? That's the first question.

泰德，你提到了相對於最低限度的 300 個基點的超額部分。我想問的是一個包含兩個部分的問題，這裡再補充一點。首先，適當的管理緩衝水準是多少？這個演變過程可能會如何發展，以及背後的代數原理是什麼？這是第一個問題。

I mean, I think that -- we've highlighted where we have excess capital, and that's obviously on a risk-weighted basis. Honestly, like a risk asset-based basis. We also have excess capital as it relates to SLR.

我的意思是，我認為——我們已經重點指出了我們擁有過剩資本的地方，這顯然是按風險加權計算的。說實話，就像是基於風險資產的基礎一樣。我們在法定流動比率方面也有盈餘資金。

In terms of how and where it's evolving, it will really depend on everything that we see on the forward. So you think about the models that we're supposed to get from a CCAR perspective, that's going to help us understand base RWA -- or trust RWAs.

至於它將如何以及在哪裡發展，這真的取決於我們在前線看到的一切。所以，想想我們應該從 CCAR 的角度獲得的模型，這將有助於我們理解基礎 RWA——或者說信任 RWA。

You think about Basel, that will help us understand what is base RWAs, then you have to understand the overlap and G-SIB. So those are all three pieces on a risk-based capital framework that we're waiting for, and that will help inform us on the forward look as well as the finalized rule on SLR, which I think the industry is really looking forward to seeing so that we can move away from that being a binding constraint and a backstop.

你想想巴塞爾協議，這將有助於我們理解什麼是基礎 RWA，然後你必須理解重疊和 G-SIB。所以，以上就是我們正在等待的基於風險的資本框架的三個組成部分，這將有助於我們了解未來展望以及最終的SLR規則，我認為業界非常期待看到該規則的出台，以便我們能夠擺脫SLR作為約束性限制和後備措施的局面。

And I don't know if this is algebra, Chris. But the way I would sort of think about it is, in line with what Sharon just said is, I believe in the last call, I said 200-plus, and we were at 15 for the quarter. And obviously, there's isolation from period to period. But we were 200 basis points plus I said, we said, right? And then this quarter went from 15 to 15.2, notwithstanding, obviously, the payout of the dividend and the buyback because we just accreted more capital.

克里斯，我不知道這算不算代數。但我的想法是，正如莎倫剛才所說，我相信在上次電話會議上，我說的是 200 多，而我們本季只做到了 15。顯然，各個時期之間存在著隔離。但我說，我們當時領先 200 個基點，對吧？然後，儘管支付了股息和進行了股票回購，但由於我們積累了更多資本，本季業績從 15 增長到 15.2。

We also, during the period, received the reconsideration on CCAR from the Fed to the tune of another 80 basis points. So 80 basis points plus 20 basis points, that's 100 basis points. And so I'd say the 200 basis points goes to 250 basis points plus in the spirit of conservatism, taking 50 basis points out of the 100 basis points. All right? So 200 basis points on -- was sort of -- 200 basis points plus was the prior. 250 basis points plus feels like the way to say it. Sure, we could say more because the actual numbers is 340 basis points, the implied buffer’s there.

在此期間，我們也收到了聯準會對 CCAR 的重新考慮，金額為 80 個基點。所以 80 個基點加上 20 個基點，就是 100 個基點。因此，我認為 200 個基點應該增加到 250 個基點，再加上保守精神，從 100 個基點中減去 50 個基點。好的？所以，之前的說法是200個基點，現在改成250個基點。當然，我們還可以多說一些，因為實際數字是 340 個基點，隱含的緩衝空間就在那裡。

I think others have said, colleagues on prior calls, and I would much agree with and repeat the algebra as you say, around the number, by definition, you need to have effectively a buffer on a buffer because of the regulatory uncertainty, which nodule is the governor and then the entire process of going through submissions and the like. We're hoping some simplification, some additional transparency, which we're much seeing from the Fed and the other regulators, which we are -- it's early days, but really heartened by that.

我認為其他人，包括之前的同事，都說過，我非常同意你的觀點，並且會重複你所說的代數運算，圍繞這個數字，根據定義，由於監管的不確定性，你需要有效地在緩衝區上設置緩衝區，而監管的不確定性就是監管者，然後是提交申請等整個過程。我們希望看到一些簡化措施和增加透明度，我們已經從聯準會和其他監管機構看到了這一點，雖然現在還處於早期階段，但這確實令人鼓舞。

There's more of a common sense approach to this, should, by definition, over time, prudently lower the size of anyone's buffer because they just know predictively what framework they are being measured by as opposed to the uncertainty underlying the test itself in times that are relatively not uncertain for large, well-capitalized banks 15 years after Dodd-Frank. So that would be the way to think about it in terms of the size of the buffer. But if you wanted to just jot down a number, I'd say 250 basis points plus is a comfortable way to go from here.

對此，有一種更符合常理的方法，從定義上講，隨著時間的推移，應該謹慎地降低任何人的緩衝規模，因為他們可以預測地知道自己正在接受哪個框架的衡量，而不是測試本身的不確定性。在多德-弗蘭克法案頒布 15 年後，對於資本充足的大型銀行而言，測試本身相對來說並不不確定。所以，從緩衝區大小的角度來看，這就是思考這個問題的方法。但如果你只是想記下一個數字，我會說從這裡開始增加 250 個基點是一個比較穩健的做法。

Did you have another question? No? Looks like we're moving here. We're moving.

您還有其他問題嗎？不？看來我們要搬到這裡來了。我們要搬家了。

Saul Martinez, HSBC.

索爾·馬丁內斯，匯豐銀行。

Okay. Saul, you're the last one up. I'm getting signals that you're -- so let's take it out really -- softball, softball, softball here. 10. 40, please.

好的。索爾，你是最後一個起床的。我收到信號說你——所以我們直接進入正題——壘球，壘球，壘球。請給我10.40。

I'll do my best. I think -- I'm going to ask the question. I think, in a way, you've been asked a few times about the sustainability of the results in institutional securities. But I guess I'll ask it a little bit more bluntly. You did a 20% ROTCE this quarter through nine months, 17%. I guess, can you sustain this type of profitability in Institutional Securities?

我會盡力而為。我想——我要問這個問題了。我認為，在某種程度上，你已經被問過幾次關於機構證券績效可持續性的問題了。但我還是想更直白地問一下。本季前九個月的 ROTCE 為 20%，實際為 17%。我想問，機構證券領域能否維持這種獲利水準？

Because it would imply that given your business mix, you would imply that your ROTCE at consolidated level would be above 20%. And IBCs, obviously, this quarter, very strong at levels we haven't seen since 2021. And obviously, a lot of room for optimism for a lot of reasons you've highlighted, Ted. But we are really in a sweet spot as markets businesses are also humming and doing extremely well.

因為這意味著，鑑於您的業務組合，您的合併層面的 ROTCE 將高於 20%。顯然，本季 IBC 表現非常強勁，達到了自 2021 年以來的最高水準。顯然，正如你強調的，有很多理由讓我們保持樂觀，泰德。但我們確實處於一個非常有利的位置，因為市場和企業都在蓬勃發展，業績也非常好。

So I'm just curious of your perspective. Is an environment where investment banking continues to grow over a multi-year period, is it consistent with a backdrop where markets revenues can be sustained at these levels or even grow given these businesses, too, benefit from volatile economic and market backdrop, recognizing that there are many sources of durability too, and perhaps more than they have been in the past.

所以我很好奇你的看法。在投資銀行業務持續多年增長的環境下，市場收入能否維持在目前的水平甚至增長，取決於這些業務是否也能從動盪的經濟和市場環境中受益，同時還要認識到，市場也有許多持久性的來源，而且可能比過去更多。

I don't know if that's a softball question, but I'll try to put a bow on the conference call and leave you with that one.

我不知道這算不算個簡單的問題，但我會盡量用這個問題來結束這通電話會議。

Yeah. I think you said it nicely. I wouldn't though call it softball. It is sort of medium ball, but a very fair -- a very fair question and sort of kind of a cousin to Mike's question.

是的。我覺得你說得很好。但我不會稱之為壘球。這有點像是中等難度的問題，但非常公平——一個非常公平的問題，而且有點像麥克的問題的近親。

Look, again, [6,700] S&P, you are going to have businesses that are going to -- if you execute well, you're going to have performance, assuming the operating model is well functioning and tight credit spreads, the financing flywheel should work. If you have lower asset prices and deleveraging and credit spreads widen because there's a recession concern or an inflation scare, my guess is markets businesses generally are going to perform less well.

再看看標普500指數（6700），你會發現，如果執行得當，就會有業績成長。假設營運模式運作良好，信貸利差收窄，融資飛輪應該會發揮作用。如果由於經濟衰退的擔憂或通膨的恐慌，導致資產價格下跌、去槓桿化和信貸利差擴大，我的猜測是，市場和企業的整體表現都會不太好。

I mean, there's no untying that link. So some of this has to be driven by whether you think we are at the early stages of a reacceleration of growth in the US economy and then the global economy, and there are signs that, that is happening or you think you're actually in a later stage of market evolution, ie, the economy may be okay, but the market has had a huge run, risk assets have had a huge run and we are going to chop around or even trade lower, in which case then, the markets businesses are generally on the street going to have to work through that.

我的意思是，這兩者之間是無法解開的。所以，這其中有些取決於你是否認為我們正處於美國經濟乃至全球經濟重新加速增長的早期階段，並且有跡象表明這種情況正在發生；或者你是否認為我們實際上處於市場演變的後期階段，也就是說，經濟可能還不錯，但市場已經經歷了一輪大幅上漲，風險資產也經歷了一輪大幅上漲，我們將會出現這種震盪甚至下跌，在這個過程中必須經歷這個過程。

That having been said, we spent a lot of time doing everything we can to make sure that there is durability inside of these businesses that we are an essential 1, 2, 3 partner to the largest asset managers with whom we are wedded to and that we are doing business that we think is right in line with advising our clients that we -- you see it, the VAR ticks up, but not dramatically, that the use of capital is prudent, but that we are connecting not just inside of equities, but across fixed income.

話雖如此，我們花了大量時間盡一切努力確保這些業務的持久性，確保我們是與我們緊密合作的最大資產管理公司不可或缺的1、2、3合作夥伴，確保我們開展的業務符合我們為客戶提供的建議——你看，VAR（風險價值）有所上升，但並不劇烈，資本的使用是審慎的，而且我們在股票領域不僅聯繫了整個收益。

I'd call out by the way that the performance of the fixed income business for the last whole bunch of quarters has been remarkably stable. That speaks to the management of that business as a part of a durable narrative inside of the investment bank, but then across the firm.

順便提一下，過去幾季固定收益業務的表現一直非常穩定。這表明，該業務的管理是投資銀行內部以及整個公司持久敘事的一部分。

The investment banking flywheel, again, is also activity based and economically sensitive. But we do think that the pent-up supply there is going to have to come. And we do believe that in the investment banking and capital markets new issue arena, we are gaining share. We would be seeking to do that globally over the next year, two years.

同樣，投資銀行的運作機制也是以活動為基礎，並且對經濟狀況非常敏感。但我們認為，那裡積壓的供應終究會釋放出來。我們確實相信，在投資銀行和資本市場新股發行領域，我們正在獲得更大的市場份額。未來一兩年內，我們將力爭在全球範圍內實現這一目標。

And then as it relates to the markets business, ie, sales and trading of stocks and bonds, we want to do it prudently. We're now looking to overreach. We are well aware of what the underlying valuation narrative is for Morgan Stanley. We want to serve our clients. We want to help fill capacity and capability for them, but we are going to continue to have a high bar on what new business we take on and how it generates incremental margin.

至於市場業務，即股票和債券的銷售和交易，我們希望謹慎行事。我們現在正試圖過度擴張。我們非常清楚摩根士丹利背後的估值邏輯。我們想為客戶提供優質服務。我們希望幫助他們提升產能和能力，但我們將繼續對我們承接的新業務以及它們如何產生增量利潤保持高標準。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you, everyone, for participating. You may now disconnect, and have a great day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開連線了，祝您今天過得愉快。