摩根士丹利 (MS) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning.

早安.

Welcome to Morgan Stanley's fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings call.

歡迎參加摩根士丹利第四季和 2024 年全年財報電話會議。

On behalf of Morgan Stanley, I will begin the call with the following disclaimer.

我將代表摩根士丹利在電話會議開始時發表以下免責聲明。

This call is being recorded.

此通話正在錄音。

During today's presentation, we will refer to our earnings release, financial supplement, and strategic update, copies of which are available at morganstanley.com.

在今天的演示中，我們將參考我們的收益發布、財務補充和策略更新，這些內容的副本可在 morganstanley.com 上取得。

Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially.

今天的演示可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。

Please refer to our notices regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures that appear in the earnings release and strategic update.

請參閱我們有關收益發布和策略更新中出現的前瞻性陳述和非公認會計原則措施的通知。

Within the strategic update, certain reported information has been adjusted as noted.

在策略更新中，某些報告資訊已按所述進行調整。

These adjustments were made to provide a transparent and comparative view of our operating performance.

進行這些調整是為了提供我們經營績效的透明和可比較的視圖。

The reconciliations of these non-GAAP adjusted operating performance metrics are included in the notes to the presentation or the earnings release.

這些非公認會計原則調整後的經營績效指標的調節包含在簡報或收益發布的註釋中。

This presentation may not be duplicated or reproduced without our consent.

未經我們同意，不得複製或複製本簡報。

I will now turn the call over to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Ted Pick.

我現在將把電話轉給董事長兼執行長特德·皮克。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us.

早安，感謝您加入我們。

First, we would like to acknowledge our colleagues, clients, shareholders, friends, and family in Los Angeles.

首先，我們要感謝洛杉磯的同事、客戶、股東、朋友和家人。

Our hearts go out to all those impacted and dealing with the horrific devastation from the wildfires.

我們的心與所有受影響並正在應對野火造成的可怕破壞的人們同在。

We're grateful to all the firefighters and first responders.

我們感謝所有消防員和急救人員。

We are thinking of you.

我們想你。

Over the last several years, we've been faced with two central themes: one, the end of financial repression, namely the passing of the era of ultra-low interest rates and the re-emergence of inflation; and two, the end of the end of history with the resumption of geopolitical uncertainty.

過去幾年，我們面臨兩個中心主題：一是金融抑制的結束，即超低利率時代的過去和通貨膨脹的重新出現；第二，歷史的終結隨著地緣政治不確定性的恢復而結束。

These paradigm shifts juxtapose against renewed investor and corporate confidence, present opportunities to support clients with exceptional advice and market access.

這些範式轉移與投資者和企業信心的恢復並存，提供了為客戶提供卓越建議和市場准入支援的機會。

Morgan Stanley is well positioned to execute against these opportunities.

摩根士丹利處於有利位置來抓住這些機會。

The firm's consistent execution is demonstrated by the cadence of top line and bottom line in 2024.

2024 年營收和利潤的節奏證明了公司的一貫執行力。

Revenues across the four quarters of $15.1 billion, $15.0 billion, $15.4 billion, and $16.2 billion.

四個季度的營收分別為 151 億美元、150 億美元、154 億美元和 162 億美元。

And earnings per share of $2.02, $1.82, $1.88, and $2.22. The fourth quarter was a top line record with the highest earnings per share in over 15 years, capping off one of Morgan Stanley's strongest years.

每股收益分別為 2.02 美元、1.82 美元、1.88 美元和 2.22 美元。第四季創下了 15 年來最高的每股盈餘記錄，為摩根士丹利最強勁的年份之一畫上了句號。

For the full year, the firm delivered a return on tangible of 19% and earnings per share of $7.95, making significant progress toward our long-term goals.

該公司全年的有形回報率為 19%，每股收益為 7.95 美元，在實現我們的長期目標方面取得了重大進展。

The results reflect consistent durable earnings across the firm, evidencing that Morgan Stanley can deliver during this period of continued macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.

業績反映了整個公司持續穩定的獲利，證明摩根士丹利能夠在宏觀經濟和地緣政治持續不確定的時期實現盈利。

As we do every January, let's begin with our 2025 strategic update entitled Four Pillars of Morgan Stanley, the Integrated Firm.

正如我們每年 1 月所做的那樣，讓我們從題為「摩根士丹利綜合公司的四大支柱」的 2025 年策略更新開始。

The slides can be found on our website.

這些幻燈片可以在我們的網站上找到。

On slide 3, we introduced the four pillars of Morgan Stanley that support our Integrated firm, strategy, culture, financial strength, and growth.

在投影片 3 中，我們介紹了摩根士丹利支持我們綜合公司的四大支柱：策略、文化、財務實力和成長。

Strategy is about consistently serving our clients and raising, managing and allocating capital.

策略是始終如一地為客戶提供服務以及籌集、管理和分配資本。

Culture is about rigor, humility and partnership.

文化是嚴謹、謙遜和夥伴關係。

Financial strength is about strong capital and liquidity alongside durable earnings.

財務實力是指強大的資本和流動性以及持久的收益。

And growth is about smart strategic investments across the firm, which generate new opportunities to capture client share.

成長取決於整個公司的明智策略投資，這會產生新的機會來獲取客戶份額。

The investment thesis for Morgan Stanley rests on our ability to deliver the Integrated firm supported by these four pillars.

摩根士丹利的投資主題取決於我們提供由這四大支柱支持的綜合公司的能力。

Slide 4.

幻燈片 4。

First, to reiterate Morgan Stanley's clear strategy: to raise, manage, and allocate capital for corporations, individuals, asset managers, and asset owners around the world.

首先，重申摩根士丹利的明確策略：為世界各地的公司、個人、資產管理者和資產所有者籌集、管理和分配資本。

In the past year, our engagement advice across the full range of institutional and individual clients drove results.

在過去的一年裡，我們為各類機構和個人客戶提供的參與建議取得了成果。

Slide 5.

幻燈片 5。

Morgan Stanley culture is defined by rigor, humility, and partnership.

摩根士丹利的文化是嚴謹、謙虛和夥伴關係。

The leadership group on the operating and management committees have an average tenure at the firm of more than 20 years, many of them across business segments and regions.

營運和管理委員會的領導團隊在公司的平均任期超過20年，其中許多人跨業務部門和地區。

More broadly, our leadership body of 2,312 managing directors, 173 of whom we recently promoted to the partnership have been with Morgan Stanley for an average of 15 years.

更廣泛地說，我們的領導團隊由 2,312 名董事總經理組成，其中 173 名我們最近晉升為合夥人，他們在摩根士丹利的平均工作時間為 15 年。

30% of our managing directors have been at the firm for two decades.

我們 30% 的董事總經理已在公司工作了 20 年。

Our partnership is defined by Morgan Stanley leaders who embody this homegrown culture, joined by acquisition and lateral talent who bring an incremental skill set to the platform.

我們的合作關係是由摩根士丹利領導者定義的，他們體現了這種本土文化，並由收購和橫向人才加入，為平台帶來了增量技能。

Morgan Stanley's culture of first-class business in a first-class way forged over many years of trial and success is a competitive advantage and will contribute to the success of the Integrated firm.

摩根士丹利經過多年的嘗試和成功而形成的以一流方式開展一流業務的文化是一種競爭優勢，並將有助於綜合公司的成功。

Slide 6 highlights our position of financial strength, the third pillar of the Integrated firm, and is the output of a clearly defined strategy and a tightly knit culture.

投影片 6 強調了我們的財務實力地位，這是綜合公司的第三大支柱，也是明確策略和緊密文化的產物。

Our consistently strong capital position over recent years is a standout.

近年來，我們持續強勁的資本狀況非常出色。

In 2024, we accreted over $5.5 billion of CET1 while continuing to return capital to our shareholders.

2024 年，我們累積了超過 55 億美元的 CET1，同時繼續向股東返還資本。

We will continue to prudently grow the dividend, continue to invest in each of our three businesses and across our infrastructure, and continue to opportunistically repurchase the stock.

我們將繼續謹慎地增加股息，繼續投資於我們的三個業務和基礎設施，並繼續機會主義地回購股票。

In 2024, we effectively deployed capital to support clients and translated that into earnings growth.

2024年，我們有效配置資本支援客戶，並將其轉化為獲利成長。

High capital levels protect us in challenging climates and sustain us for long-term growth.

高資本水準可以在充滿挑戰的環境中保護我們並維持我們的長期成長。

Slide 7 brings us to the fourth pillar of the strategy, revenue and earnings growth.

投影片 7 為我們帶來了策略的第四個支柱：收入和獲利成長。

Earnings expansion in 2024 reflects a return on multiyear investment to support clients.

2024 年的獲利擴張反映了支持客戶的多年投資的回報。

We will continue to invest heavily across the firm; in our talent; our clients; in E*TRADE and in Parametric; in our bank, across resiliency in technology and infrastructure; and in the development of the Integrated firm.

我們將繼續在整個公司進行大量投資；我們的才華；我們的客戶；在 E*TRADE 和參數化；在我們銀行，跨越技術和基礎設施的彈性；以及綜合公司的發展。

In the past year, expense growth was tempered by our focus on rolling off initial integration spend and taking opportunities to consolidate our real estate footprint.

在過去的一年裡，我們專注於減少初始整合支出並抓住機會鞏固我們的房地產業務，從而抑制了費用成長。

Investments for growth will continue to be supported by ongoing disciplined prioritization of our expense base.

我們對支出基礎進行持續嚴格的優先排序將繼續支持成長投資。

Slide 8.

幻燈片 8。

The last six years show a step function change in the firm's growth across our businesses.

過去六年顯示了公司各業務成長的階躍功能變化。

In the Wealth and Investment Management segments, combined revenues have grown from $20 billion to $34 billion, and total client assets have nearly tripled to $7.9 trillion.

在財富和投資管理領域，合併收入從 200 億美元成長到 340 億美元，客戶總資產幾乎增加了兩倍，達到 7.9 兆美元。

This growth has been achieved both by way of acquisition and through organic execution.

這種成長是透過收購和有機執行實現的。

You will also note that Institutional Securities wallet share has grown by nearly 100 basis points.

您還會注意到，機構證券錢包份額增加了近 100 個基點。

These results reflect not only constructive markets, but also a sharpened focus on key client relationships and an expanded coverage of corporates and asset managers.

這些結果不僅反映了市場的建設性，也反映了對關鍵客戶關係的更加重視以及企業和資產管理公司覆蓋範圍的擴大。

Morgan Stanley scale positions us over the long term to deliver growth in each of our three business segments.

摩根士丹利的規模使我們能夠在長期內實現三個業務部門的成長。

We win both through an expanding denominator of global securities, banking, Wealth and Investment Management activity and by increasing our numerator as in our wallet share in each segment.

我們透過擴大全球證券、銀行、財富和投資管理活動的分母以及增加我們在每個細分市場的錢包份額來贏得勝利。

In short, we seek to gain durable share in the secular growth businesses in which we participate.

簡而言之，我們尋求在我們參與的長期成長業務中獲得持久的份額。

Slide 9 goes a level deeper into Institutional Securities.

第 9 張投影片更深入地探討了機構證券。

First, the growth in Institutional Securities has been both broad-based and crucially is global.

首先，機構證券的成長基礎廣泛，最重要的是是全球性的。

It is important that we are relevant in all the major regions around the world.

重要的是我們在世界所有主要地區都具有影響力。

Amidst geopolitical and interest rate uncertainty, each region grew revenues by roughly 20% in 2024.

由於地緣政治和利率的不確定性，2024 年每個地區的收入成長了約 20%。

These results follow multiple years of investment in talent and leadership as well as efficient and disciplined RWA growth.

這些成果是多年來對人才和領導力的投資以及高效、有紀律的 RWA 成長的結果。

In 2024, we saw Institutional Securities deliver an operating margin of 31% and revenue growth that was significantly higher than our RWA growth.

2024 年，我們看到機構證券的營業利潤率為 31%，營收成長明顯高於我們的 RWA 成長。

We are in a leadership position and can offer trusted advice and market access into the Investment Banking, new issue, and M&A cycle, which just lies ahead.

我們處於領先地位，可以為即將到來的投資銀行、新股發行和併購週期提供值得信賴的建議和市場准入。

Slide 10.

幻燈片 10。

In Wealth Management, investments in our self-directed and Workplace channels drive our differentiated client acquisition funnel.

在財富管理領域，對自主管道和工作場所管道的投資推動了我們差異化的客戶獲取管道。

Today, with our expanded offering, we reach over 19 million relationships and have added net new assets of over $250 billion in each of the past two years on track to delivering $10 trillion-plus of total client assets.

如今，隨著我們產品的擴展，我們已覆蓋了超過 1900 萬個客戶關係，並且在過去兩年中每年新增淨資產超過 2500 億美元，預計將為客戶提供超過 10 兆美元的總資產。

An important indicator of Wealth Management momentum is fee-based flows, which reached an exceptional $123 billion in 2024.

財富管理動能的一個重要指標是收費流量，到 2024 年將達到 1,230 億美元。

Delivering on new relationships and net new asset growth creates opportunities for our team of world-class financial advisers to tap into the Integrated firm for their clients.

建立新的關係和淨新資產成長為我們的世界級財務顧問團隊創造了機會，為他們的客戶進入綜合公司。

Slide 11 highlights the breadth and tenure of Wealth Management's client relationships as 60% of adviser-led assets are associated with clients who have an average duration of 20 years.

投影片 11 強調了財富管理客戶關係的廣度和期限，因為 60% 的顧問主導資產與平均期限為 20 年的客戶相關。

We retain 99% of our clients, reflecting their enduring trust in Morgan Stanley.

我們保留了 99% 的客戶，反映了他們對摩根士丹利的持久信任。

The slide illustrates our multichannel model, which continues to drive new assets to the platform. 30% of our adviser-led assets are associated with clients who have a Morgan Stanley relationship of less than 10 years, and 10% of adviser-led assets are with clients of less than two years.

這張幻燈片展示了我們的多通路模型，該模型不斷將新資產推向平台。我們 30% 的顧問主導資產與與摩根士丹利合作關係不滿 10 年的客戶相關，10% 的顧問主導資產與與摩根士丹利合作關係不滿兩年的客戶相關。

The client acquisition funnel supports durable growth, namely as clients mature with our financial advisers, they become the foundation for the continued growth of recurring fee-based revenues.

客戶獲取管道支援持久成長，即隨著我們的財務顧問的客戶成熟，他們成為經常性收費收入持續成長的基礎。

Slide 12.

幻燈片 12。

In Investment Management, we continue to focus on the secular growth areas of customization and alternatives.

在投資管理方面，我們繼續關注客製化和替代品的長期成長領域。

Our industry-leading Parametric platform, inclusive of overlay has grown to $575 billion.

我們業界領先的參數化平台（包括疊加）已成長至 5,750 億美元。

In alternatives, our investable assets have more than doubled in size to $240 billion.

在另類投資中，我們的可投資資產規模增加了一倍多，達到 2,400 億美元。

Investments in these secular growth areas have brought more balance to our Investment Management business and supported fee-based revenues.

對這些長期成長領域的投資為我們的投資管理業務帶來了更多平衡，並支持了收費收入。

Additionally, the Integrated firm, particularly the relationship with Wealth Management continues to benefit the Investment Management platform with the enhancement of retail-oriented distribution offerings and additional product capabilities.

此外，綜合公司，特別是與財富管理的關係，透過增強零售導向的分銷產品和附加產品功能，繼續使投資管理平台受益。

Slide 13.

幻燈片 13。

An area of investment is in the incremental growth of our US banks.

一個投資領域是美國銀行的增量成長。

Since 2018, the firm has significantly grown deposit balances and continues to source deposits from Wealth Management clients with an expanded product offering.

自 2018 年以來，該公司存款餘額顯著增長，並繼續透過擴大產品範圍從財富管理客戶那裡獲取存款。

On the asset side, we will continue to grow our Wealth Management lending capability by covering clients holistically as their financial needs evolve.

在資產方面，我們將隨著客戶金融需求的變化全面覆蓋客戶，持續增強我們的財富管理貸款能力。

In addition, we will continue to utilize the bank platform to support growth in eligible institutional businesses.

此外，我們將繼續利用銀行平台支持符合條件的機構業務的成長。

As we continue to grow our capabilities across the Integrated firm, we are well positioned to provide a full suite of solutions to our clients.

隨著我們在整個綜合公司中不斷增強我們的能力，我們已經做好了為客戶提供全套解決方案的準備。

Slide 14.

幻燈片 14。

A dividend that is aligned to the growth of fee-based earnings has been a leading priority.

與收費收入成長一致的股息一直是首要任務。

Our durable results demonstrate consistent execution of our strategy, and we have raised our quarterly dividend by $0.075 for three years in a row to $0.925 per share.

我們的持久業績證明了我們策略的一貫執行，我們連續三年將季度股息提高了 0.075 美元，達到每股 0.925 美元。

Slide 15.

幻燈片 15。

As you've heard us discuss during the past year, the Integrated firm brings together our world-class Wealth and Investment Management franchises with our world-class Institutional Securities franchise.

正如您在過去一年中聽到我們討論的那樣，這家綜合公司將我們世界一流的財富和投資管理特許經營權與我們世界一流的機構證券特許經營權結合在一起。

We are consistently strengthening the pillars underlying the Integrated firm to deliver on our strategic goals.

我們不斷加強綜合公司的支柱，以實現我們的策略目標。

Across the Integrated firm, Morgan Stanley is relevant to our clients, spanning from the advice dispensed in corporate boardrooms to our financial wellness programs for that company's employees.

在整個綜合公司中，摩根士丹利與我們的客戶息息相關，從公司董事會提供的建議到我們為該公司員工提供的財務健康計劃。

We are also the premier holistic partner to asset managers, partnering with them to grow their businesses and to generate alpha.

我們也是資產管理公司的首要整體合作夥伴，與他們合作發展他們的業務並創造阿爾法。

We can deliver institutional capabilities to our clients alongside sophisticated Wealth Management advice and distribution in an Integrated service model and in so doing, be mindful of potential conflicts.

我們可以在綜合服務模式中為客戶提供機構能力以及複雜的財富管理建議和分配，在此過程中，請注意潛在的衝突。

To open 2025, we have formalized the Integrated firm by positioning leadership talent at the center of client coverage, Integrated data, risk management and infrastructure to drive growth as we serve more clients across their full suite of needs.

到 2025 年，我們正式成立了綜合公司，將領導者才置於客戶覆蓋、綜合數據、風險管理和基礎設施的中心，以推動成長，為更多客戶提供全方位的需求服務。

This effort will be led by Mandell Crawley, a three-decade Morgan Stanley executive and a member of our operating committee.

這項工作將由曼德爾·克勞利 (Mandell Crawley) 領導，他是摩根士丹利 (Morgan Stanley) 的高管，也是我們營運委員會的成員，已工作了三年。

Together with Co-Presidents, Dan Simkowitz and Andy Saperstein, the Integrated firm organization is aligned to scale client opportunities across Morgan Stanley.

綜合公司組織與聯合總裁 Dan Simkowitz 和 Andy Saperstein 一起，致力於擴大摩根士丹利的客戶機會。

Slide 16.

幻燈片 16。

The Morgan Stanley investment thesis is robust.

摩根士丹利的投資理論是強而有力的。

In 2024, we delivered top line and bottom line strength and consistency.

2024 年，我們實現了營收和利潤的實力和一致性。

The full-year results are strong relative to our long-term firm-wide goals.

相對於我們公司的長期目標，全年業績表現強勁。

We ended 2024 with total client assets at $7.9 trillion, Wealth Management pretax margins of 27%, a firm efficiency ratio of 71%, and a return on tangible of 19%.

截至 2024 年，我們的客戶總資產為 7.9 兆美元，財富管理稅前利潤率為 27%，公司效率率為 71%，有形回報率為 19%。

Of note, we added a new goal to achieve durable wallet share gains in Institutional Securities.

值得注意的是，我們增加了一個新目標，以實現機構證券中錢包份額的持久增長。

The additional metric for Institutional Securities is an appropriate reflection of the expected contribution of this business segment to the firm's growth narrative.

機構證券的附加指標適當地反映了該業務部門對公司成長敘述的預期貢獻。

The key word is durable.

關鍵字是耐用。

There will always be market and business cycles in each of these businesses.

這些業務中總是會存在市場和商業週期。

Morgan Stanley's trusted relationships over the very long term lead to superior results.

摩根士丹利長期值得信賴的關係帶來了卓越的表現。

Against the four pillars of strategy, culture, financial strength and growth, delivering the Integrated firm is foundational to durable earnings growth and 20% returns through the cycle.

根據策略、文化、財務實力和成長四大支柱，打造一體化公司是實現持久獲利成長和整個週期 20% 回報的基礎。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Now Sharon will review our fourth quarter and annual results.

現在沙龍將回顧我們第四季和年度業績。

Then together, we will take your questions.

然後我們將一起回答您的問題。

Thank you, and good morning.

謝謝你，早安。

The firm produced revenues of $61.8 billion in 2024 and ended the year with fourth-quarter revenues of $16.2 billion.

該公司 2024 年營收為 618 億美元，截至年底第四季營收為 162 億美元。

For the full year, ROTCE was 18.8% and EPS was $7.95.

全年的 ROTCE 為 18.8%，每股收益為 7.95 美元。

For the fourth quarter, ROTCE was 20.2% and EPS was $2.22. The full-year efficiency ratio was 71.1%.

第四季度，ROTCE 為 20.2%，每股盈餘為 2.22 美元。全年效率為71.1%。

Improved efficiency not only demonstrates our ability to grow revenues, but also to prioritize our controllable spend.

效率的提高不僅表明了我們增加收入的能力，而且還表明了我們優先考慮可控支出的能力。

Occupancy and equipment costs held flat, benefiting from the prior year's consolidation of our real estate footprint.

由於前一年我們房地產足跡的整合，佔用率和設備成本保持不變。

During 2024, we took real estate charges of $62 million, which impacted full-year EPS by $0.03. Professional services declined year over year, aided by the roll-off of integration-related expenses and discipline across project spend.

2024 年，我們收取了 6,200 萬美元的房地產費用，這對全年 EPS 造成了 0.03 美元的影響。由於整合相關費用的下降和專案支出的紀律，專業服務逐年下降。

These savings helped self-fund investments across infrastructure to support growth, such as expanding data center capacity, renovations, and technology modernization efforts.

這些節省的資金有助於基礎設施的自籌投資，以支持成長，例如擴大資料中心容量、翻新和技術現代化工作。

Self-funding investments remains a priority.

自籌資金投資仍是優先事項。

In the short run, similarly sized additional modernization efforts focused on decommissioning legacy technologies may result in higher amortization costs.

從短期來看，專注於淘汰遺留技術的類似規模的額外現代化工作可能會導致更高的攤銷成本。

This, alongside business-enabled innovation and process optimization with AI should support the firm's future efficiency path.

這與業務支援的創新和人工智慧流程優化一起應該支援公司未來的效率之路。

Now to the businesses.

現在到企業。

Institutional Securities delivered very strong annual results across business and regions, demonstrating the high-quality breadth and depth of our world-class global franchise.

機構證券在各個業務和地區取得了非常強勁的年度業績，展示了我們世界級全球特許經營的高品質廣度和深度。

Full-year revenues of $28.1 billion included our highest reported equity revenues and the highest results across combined equity and fixed income markets.

281 億美元的全年收入包括我們報告的最高股票收入以及綜合股票和固定收益市場的最高業績。

The strong annual performance showcases our global footprint and our ability to capture client share amidst an increasingly constructive backdrop.

強勁的年度業績展示了我們的全球足跡以及我們在日益建設性的背景下獲取客戶份額的能力。

Fourth-quarter revenues were $7.3 billion as markets remained active, bucking the typical seasonal slowdown.

由於市場仍然活躍，與典型的季節性放緩相反，第四季營收為 73 億美元。

We supported clients throughout the quarter and ended the year with momentum.

我們在整個季度為客戶提供支持，並以強勁勢頭結束了這一年。

Investment Banking revenues were $6.2 billion for the full year, reflecting growth across regions and products.

全年投資銀行收入為 62 億美元，反映了跨地區和產品的成長。

2024 commenced with strong debt underwriting activity. followed by M&A announcements that picked up in the second half and ended with increased equity underwriting activity as the IPO market posted its highest volumes since 2021.

2024 年開始，債務承銷活動強勁。隨後，併購公告在下半年增加，最終隨著 IPO 市場創下 2021 年以來的最高交易量，股票承銷活動增加。

Fourth-quarter investment banking revenues were $1.6 billion, results were largely driven by accelerating strength in equity underwriting as follow-on in IPO issuance saw meaningful improvements over the comparison period.

第四季投資銀行營收為 16 億美元，業績主要是由於股票承銷的加速成長所推動的，因為後續 IPO 發行在比較期間出現了有意義的改善。

We also saw corporates and sponsors take advantage of constructive markets in the quarter.

我們也看到企業和贊助商利用本季的建設性市場。

Advisory revenues improved year over year on higher completed M&A transactions.

由於完成的併購交易增多，諮詢收入逐年成長。

Looking ahead to 2025, our M&A pipelines are healthy and diversified, outpacing recent years.

展望 2025 年，我們的併購管道健康且多元化，成長超過近年來。

Financial sponsors are joining corporates to drive activity, evaluating exit opportunities for long-held assets.

金融贊助商正在與企業一起推動活動，評估長期持有資產的退出機會。

CEO and boardroom confidence continues to improve as valuations stabilize, and financing markets remain strong.

隨著估值穩定且融資市場依然強勁，執行長和董事會信心持續改善。

Our business is well positioned for a strong continued rebound in deal-making activity.

我們的業務已做好準備，可以實現交易活動的強勁持續反彈。

Turning to equity.

轉向股權。

We continue to be a global leader in this business, evidenced by record full year revenues of $12.2 billion.

我們仍然是該行業的全球領導者，創紀錄的 122 億美元全年收入證明了這一點。

These results reflect year-over-year growth across regions, with record performance out of Asia, demonstrating the importance of having a global footprint.

這些結果反映了各地區的同比增長，其中亞洲地區的業績創歷史新高，證明了擁有全球足跡的重要性。

Full-year results were supported by increased Prime Brokerage balances and our agility as we navigated the market well.

全年業績得益於大宗經紀業務餘額的增加以及我們在市場中的良好駕馭而保持的敏捷性。

Revenues were $3.3 billion in the fourth quarter.

第四季營收為 33 億美元。

Following the US elections, clients rerisked quickly, given shifting market dynamics.

美國大選後，鑑於市場動態的變化，客戶迅速重新承擔風險。

Additionally, third quarter strength in Asia carried into the fourth quarter with renewed investor interest across the region.

此外，亞洲第三季度的強勁勢頭延續到了第四季度，投資者對該地區的興趣重新燃起。

Prime Brokerage revenues were a record for the business as clients remained engaged and balances rose to peak levels.

由於客戶保持參與且餘額上升至峰值水平，大宗經紀業務收入創下了業務記錄。

Cash results increased year over year, consistent with higher levels of client engagement and volumes.

現金業績逐年增加，這與客戶參與度和交易量的提高一致。

Derivative results increased versus last year's fourth quarter on the back of higher activity across a variety of products, in line with improved risk appetite from clients.

由於各種產品的活動增加，以及客戶風險偏好的改善，衍生性商品業績較去年第四季有所成長。

Fixed income revenues were $8.4 billion for the full year, driven by consistent quarterly performance across the businesses.

受各業務季度業績穩定的推動，全年固定收益收入為 84 億美元。

The full-year results demonstrate our multi-year efforts to re-center our fixed income business around the Integrated firm.

全年業績證明了我們多年來為以綜合公司為中心重新定位固定收益業務的努力。

Improved trading performance, growth in durable lending revenues, and servicing corporate and sponsor relationships all contributed to results.

交易績效的改善、持久貸款收入的成長以及為企業和贊助商關係提供服務都對業績做出了貢獻。

Quarterly revenues were $1.9 billion, driven by credit products and commodities.

在信貸產品和大宗商品的推動下，季度收入為 19 億美元。

Micro revenues were above historical quarterly averages.

微觀收入高於歷史季度平均。

Results were driven by securitized products, which benefited from higher loan balances and an increase in securitization activity.

業績受到證券化產品的推動，這些產品受益於貸款餘額的增加和證券化活動的增加。

Macro performance was relatively flat versus the prior fourth quarter.

宏觀表現與去年第四季相比相對持平。

Commodities revenues improved year over year.

大宗商品收入較去年同期有所改善。

Results were led by our North America power and gas business, where structured opportunities for corporate clients leveraged the Integrated Firm.

北美電力和天然氣業務的業績領先，該業務利用綜合公司為企業客戶提供結構化的機會。

Turning to ISG lending and provisions.

轉向 ISG 貸款和準備金。

For the full year, ISG provisions were $202 million and $78 million for the quarter.

全年 ISG 撥備金額為 2.02 億美元，本季撥備金額為 7,800 萬美元。

The quarterly provision was driven by portfolio growth and a build in a handful of individual assessments.

季度準備金是由投資組合成長和一些個人評估的推動所推動的。

For the full year, ISG net charge-offs were $210 million.

全年，ISG 淨沖銷額為 2.1 億美元。

For the quarter, net charge-offs were $62 million, primarily related to several commercial real estate loans which were largely provisioned for in prior quarters.

本季淨沖銷額為 6,200 萬美元，主要與幾筆商業房地產貸款有關，這些貸款大部分是在前幾季撥備的。

Turning to Wealth Management. 2024 was a strong year for Wealth Management.

轉向財富管理。 2024 年是財富管理強勁的一年。

Full-year highlights include record revenues of $28.4 billion, pretax profit of $7.7 billion, and a reported margin of 27.2%.

全年亮點包括創紀錄的 284 億美元收入、77 億美元稅前利潤以及 27.2% 的報告利潤率。

The strength of our scaled and differentiated client acquisition funnel continues to set us apart.

我們規模化和差異化的客戶獲取管道的優勢繼續使我們脫穎而出。

Fee-based flows were $123 billion, exceeding $100 billion for the fourth consecutive year.

收費流量為 1,230 億美元，連續第四年超過 1,000 億美元。

Clients continue to seek Morgan Stanley's advice, supporting our thesis that as assets move through the funnel, incremental revenue growth and margin expansion will follow.

客戶繼續尋求摩根士丹利的建議，支持我們的論點，隨著資產通過漏斗，增量收入成長和利潤率擴張將會隨之而來。

For the fourth quarter, revenues were $7.5 billion, and the reported PBT margin was 27.5%.

第四季營收為 75 億美元，報告的 PBT 利潤率為 27.5%。

DCP and real estate-related charges negatively impacted the quarterly margin by approximately 140 basis points.

DCP 和房地產相關費用對季度利潤率產生了約 140 個基點的負面影響。

Asset management revenues in the quarter set a new record of $4.4 billion, showcasing the progress we have made to durable fee-based revenues.

本季資產管理收入創下 44 億美元的新紀錄，展示了我們在持久收費收入方面的進展。

With each quarter this year, asset management revenues saw sequential improvement, powered by constructive markets and consistently strong fee-based flows.

今年每個季度，在建設性市場和持續強勁的收費流量的推動下，資產管理收入都持續改善。

Fourth quarter fee-based flows were $35 billion.

第四季收費流量為 350 億美元。

Importantly, over the last two years, we have seen an increase in the number and the pace of assets migrating from adviser-led brokerage accounts to fee-based accounts.

重要的是，在過去兩年中，我們看到資產從顧問主導的經紀帳戶遷移到收費帳戶的數量和速度都有所增加。

We remain an industry leader in organic growth.

我們在有機成長方面仍然處於行業領先地位。

Net new assets for the quarter were $57 billion. Full-year NNA

該季度的淨新資產為 570 億美元。全年 NNA

of $252 billion represents approximately 5% annual growth of beginning period assets.

2,520 億美元意味著期初資產的年增長率約為 5%。

This year, our adviser-led channel drove the results, benefiting from both existing clients and new clients coming to the firm.

今年，我們以顧問為主導的管道推動了業績的成長，受益於現有客戶和新客戶的加入。

Transactional revenues for the quarter were $1 billion, excluding the impact of DCP, transactional revenues represent the highest level of activity we have seen since the peak in 2021.

本季交易收入為 10 億美元，排除 DCP 的影響，交易收入代表了自 2021 年高峰以來我們所看到的最高活動水準。

Higher retail engagement in equity-related products, and demand for alternative products supported results.

股票相關產品的零售參與度增加以及對替代產品的需求支撐了業績。

These revenues will continue to benefit from the breadth and the depth of our growing alternatives platform.

這些收入將繼續受益於我們不斷發展的另類平台的廣度和深度。

Bank lending balances were $160 billion.

銀行貸款餘額為 1,600 億美元。

Loan growth of $4 billion was driven by securities-based lending, where we saw demand for new lines and a decline in the pace of pay downs.

貸款成長 40 億美元是由證券貸款推動的，我們看到了對新貸款的需求以及還款速度的下降。

Total deposits increased 3% sequentially to $370 billion, driven by higher sweep balances.

受清掃餘額增加的推動，存款總額較上季成長 3%，達到 3,700 億美元。

End-of-period sweep deposits have increased for two consecutive quarters, supporting the view that as rate dynamics change and markets turn to be more constructive, sweep balances will be increasingly transactional in nature.

期末掃除存款連續兩季增加，支持這樣的觀點：隨著利率動態變化和市場變得更具建設性，掃除餘額本質上將越來越具有交易性。

While clients deployed more sweep cash in the rising markets, particularly in December, balances held strong as clients showed less rate sensitivity with their transactional cash.

儘管客戶在新興市場（尤其是 12 月）部署了更多現金，但由於客戶對交易現金的利率敏感度較低，因此餘額保持強勁。

Net interest income was $1.9 billion in the quarter.

該季度淨利息收入為 19 億美元。

The sequential increase was primarily driven by higher sweeps.

連續成長主要是由更高的掃描量推動的。

Looking ahead into 2025, the combination of a more stable deposit mix, higher lending balances, and the rate outlook suggest that first-quarter NII should not fluctuate materially from our fourth-quarter results.

展望 2025 年，更穩定的存款結構、更高的貸款餘額以及利率前景的結合表明，第一季度的 NII 不應與第四季度的業績相比出現重大波動。

We are intently focused on driving additional growth across channels.

我們專注於推動跨通路的額外成長。

In our adviser-led channel, our effectiveness in deepening relationships is evidenced by our consistently strong fee-based flows.

在我們以顧問為主導的管道中，我們持續強勁的收費流量證明了我們在深化關係方面的有效性。

In Workplace, our recently announced partnership with Carta puts us at the center of new client stock plan opportunities as private companies consider going public.

在 Workplace 中，隨著私人公司考慮上市，我們最近宣布與 Carta 合作，使我們處於新客戶股票計劃機會的中心。

And in self-directed, the number of active traders on the E*TRADE platform grew ending the year at levels higher than 2022.

在自主引導下，E*TRADE 平台上的活躍交易者數量截至年底的成長水準高於 2022 年。

Moving to Investment Management.

轉向投資管理。

The business reported annual revenues of $5.9 billion and quarterly revenues of $1.6 billion.

該公司公佈的年收入為 59 億美元，季度營收為 16 億美元。

Our AUM reached a new peak at year-end of $1.7 trillion, supported by market gains and net inflows.

在市場上漲和淨流入的支撐下，我們的資產管理規模在年底達到了 1.7 兆美元的新高。

Long-term net inflows were $4.3 billion in the quarter, driven by continued demand for our fixed income strategies and Parametric customized portfolios.

由於對我們的固定收益策略和參數客製化投資組合的持續需求，本季長期淨流入為 43 億美元。

This brings 2024 long-term net inflows to $18 billion.

這使得 2024 年長期淨流入達到 180 億美元。

Within alternatives and solutions, Parametric remains a key differentiator for MSIM.

在替代方案和解決方案中，參數化仍然是 MSIM 的關鍵差異化因素。

Growth of the brand will be supported by investments in technology, ongoing education for retail clients on the benefits of customization and tailored solutions for asset managers.

該品牌的發展將得到技術投資、針對零售客戶的持續教育以及針對資產管理公司的客製化解決方案的優勢的支持。

Liquidity and overlay services had inflows of $67 billion on the back of strong fund performance and seasonality, some of which may reverse in the first quarter.

由於基金表現強勁和季節性，流動性和疊加服務流入了 670 億美元，其中一些可能在第一季出現逆轉。

Fourth quarter asset management and related fees of $1.6 billion increased 11% versus the prior year, driven by higher average AUM.

由於平均資產管理規模上升，第四季資產管理及相關費用為 16 億美元，較上年同期成長 11%。

As a reminder, performance fees are recognized on an annual basis, largely in the fourth quarter, which drove the increase sequentially.

需要提醒的是，績效費按年確認，主要是在第四季度，這推動了業績費的連續成長。

Quarterly performance-based income and other revenues were $88 million.

基於績效的季度收入和其他收入為 8800 萬美元。

Gains were concentrated in infrastructure, US private equity and private credit.

收益主要集中在基礎建設、美國私募股權和私人信貸領域。

In parallel with Wealth Management, MSIM is helping to deliver our asset-led strategy.

在與財富管理同時，MSIM 正在幫助實施我們的資產主導策略。

Our efforts to build a business that is well diversified and focused on secular growth areas as well as global opportunities gives us confidence to drive incremental growth.

我們致力於建立高度多元化、專注於長期成長領域和全球機會的業務，這讓我們有信心推動增量成長。

Turning to the balance sheet.

轉向資產負債表。

Total spot assets were $1.2 trillion.

現貨資產總額為 1.2 兆美元。

Over the course of 2024, we demonstrated velocity of resources.

2024 年，我們展示了資源的速度。

Standardized RWAs declined sequentially to $473 billion driven by year-end seasonality and market dynamics.

受年末季節性和市場動態影響，標準化 RWA 連續下降至 4,730 億美元。

Lower RWAs at period end have already begun to reverse as we enter a new calendar year.

當我們進入新的日曆年時，期末較低的 RWA 已經開始逆轉。

During the year, we accreted over $5.5 billion of Common Equity Tier 1 capital and our standardized CET1 ratio ended the year at 15.9%.

年內，我們累積了超過 55 億美元的普通股一級資本，年底我們的標準化 CET1 比率為 15.9%。

For the full year, we bought back $3.3 billion of common stock.

全年我們回購了價值 33 億美元的普通股。

Our tax rate was 23.1% for the full year.

我們全年的稅率為23.1%。

The quarterly tax rate was 24.1%, reflecting the level and the mix of earnings.

季度稅率為 24.1%，反映了獲利水準和結構。

We expect our 2025 tax rate to be approximately 24%.

我們預計 2025 年的稅率約為 24%。

And consistent with prior years, we expect some quarterly volatility.

與往年一樣，我們預計季度會出現一些波動。

As we look ahead into 2025, our franchise is well positioned for growth, exiting the year with momentum across all of our businesses, with a strong capital position to invest in our clients and our businesses.

展望 2025 年，我們的特許經營業務已做好了成長的準備，我們所有業務都將在這一年中保持強勁勢頭，並擁有強大的資本實力來投資我們的客戶和業務。

We enter the year with record asset levels, healthy and diversified pipelines, engaged institutional and retail clients and a strong global brand.

我們以創紀錄的資產水平、健康且多元化的管道、積極參與的機構和零售客戶以及強大的全球品牌進入今年。

We are focused on disciplined execution as we progress towards our goals.

在我們朝著目標前進的過程中，我們專注於嚴格的執行。

With that, we will now open the line up to questions.

現在，我們將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Glenn Schorr, Evercore.

（操作員說明）Glenn Schorr，Evercore。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

I guess let's talk about trading.

我想我們來談談交易吧。

There's a lot of upside in trading.

交易有很多好處。

We've all seen great trading environments, and this certainly was a good one.

我們都見過良好的交易環境，這當然是一個很好的環境。

But I wonder if you could just try to parse out what -- how you think about great trading environment versus what your words are just more durable, the higher client balances, the record PB, the share gains?

但我想知道你是否可以嘗試解析一下——你如何看待良好的交易環境，以及你的言論是否更持久、更高的客戶餘額、創紀錄的PB、股票收益？

And how are you going to measure the success of those durable gains?

您將如何衡量這些持久成果的成功與否？

I'm just trying to separate your actions versus the environment.

我只是想將你的行為與環境分開。

You certainly have been performing really well.

你確實表現得非常好。

Appreciate that.

很欣賞這一點。

The focus on institutional securities over the last number of years is, of course, to delivered to key clients the whole product set across what -- as you know, we called at one point about five, six years ago, I think it was in 2018, the integrated investment bank.

當然，過去幾年對機構證券的關注是向主要客戶提供整個產品組合——正如你所知，我們在大約五六年前的某個時候打電話過，我認為是在2018年，綜合投資銀行。

And that was the bringing together of folks in equities, fixed income, capital markets and Investment Banking, minding, obviously, all the walls between them by having folks mobilize across those divisions across the regions and really understand what life is like to sit in the shoes of folks in different divisions.

這就是將股票、固定收益、資本市場和投資銀行領域的人們聚集在一起，顯然，透過讓人們跨地區的這些部門動員起來，真正了解他們之間的生活是怎樣的。 。

And as you know in this business, you don't actually know what that feels like unless you're in that business.

正如您在這個行業中所知，除非您身處該行業，否則您實際上並不知道那是什麼感覺。

So we had leaders moving around.

所以我們的領導人四處走動。

And six years later now, with ISG under Dan Simkowitz leadership, we're able to, in an environment that is friendly to a lot of the businesses because now we have a real corporate finance activity, we have real interest rates and you have effectively two-way markets in lots of places around the world with respect to central bank activity with respect to buyers and sellers of assets.

六年後的現在，在Dan Simkowitz 領導下的ISG 下，我們能夠在一個對許多企業友好的環境中實現這一目標，因為現在我們擁有真正的企業融資活動，我們擁有真實的利率，並且您可以有效地世界各地許多地方的雙向市場涉及央行針對資產買家和賣家的活動。

And of course, if you're well organized, you can prosecute that in an orthodoxical way.

當然，如果你組織得很好，你可以以正統的方式進行。

We have during this period under leadership of Sharon and the office of CFO, been quite prudent on the deployment of those risk-weighted assets through our Chief Risk Officer, Charles Smith, how do those risk-weighted assets and GAAP balance sheet get deployed to clients.

在此期間，我們在 Sharon 和財務長辦公室的領導下，透過我們的首席風險長 Charles Smith 對這些風險加權資產的部署非常謹慎，這些風險加權資產和 GAAP 資產負債表如何部署到客戶。

One mistake, Glenn, is you can lose the forest for the trees and not think about all the client touch points across the Integrated firm we are calling it, or you can actually lose sight of the real drivers of what makes that client valuable to the institution.

格倫，一個錯誤是，你可能只見樹木不見森林，而沒有考慮我們稱之為綜合公司的所有客戶接觸點，或者你實際上可能忽視了使客戶對公司有價值的真正驅動因素。

And now we've had six, seven years of really focusing on that and preparing ourselves for the ability to expand our wallet at a time where we believe the denominator is growing as well.

現在，我們已經花了六、七年的時間真正專注於此，並為在我們相信分母也在增長的時候擴大錢包的能力做好準備。

It's a little trickier to try to expand the numerator, your wallet, when the denominator is not moving as was the case with zero interest rates because you're effectively not a price maker, and you are potentially going to be taking some concentrated risk.

當分母沒有像零利率的情況那樣移動時，嘗試擴大分子（即你的錢包）有點棘手，因為你實際上不是價格製定者，並且你可能會承擔一些集中的風險。

But here now with the cycle having transitioned, we were able to lean in first across our sweet spot, which is equities to have not just prime brokerage, but the cash equities and derivatives businesses really start to generate above cost of capital ROEs so the entire basket of equities offering to our clients.

但現在隨著週期的轉變，我們能夠首先進入我們的最佳點，即股票不僅擁有主要經紀業務，而且現金股票和衍生品業務真正開始產生高於資本成本的淨資產收益率，因此整個向我們的客戶提供的一籃子股票。

But then in fixed income, which has been extraordinarily stable in what is intrinsically an unstable business given the very different businesses of commodities, interest rates, foreign exchange, and credit.

但在固定收益方面，鑑於大宗商品、利率、外匯和信貸業務截然不同，固定收益業務在本質上不穩定的業務中卻異常穩定。

And the leadership there,Hallik and Horder have done a brilliant job really running a durable business with a lot of annuitized revenue around a well-considered financing, structuring, lending businesses that look quite like businesses we have in classic underwriting such that when we now go into this investment banking cycle, where we do think there is going to be an acceleration of classic primary and secondary offerings, we're already doing business that looks like that inside of sales and trading.

那裡的領導層，哈利克和霍德做得非常出色，他們確實經營著一項持久的業務，圍繞著經過深思熟慮的融資、結構、貸款業務，擁有大量年金收入，這些業務看起來很像我們在經典承保中的業務，因此當我們現在進入這個投資銀行週期，我們確實認為經典的一級和二級發行將會加速，我們已經在做看起來像銷售和交易內部的業務。

Lending businesses, client advice and of course, there's real collegiality across the Investment Bank.

貸款業務、客戶建議，當然，整個投資銀行也存在著真正的合作精神。

The last piece of this is what we've been waiting for, which are M&A tickets, which as you know are the top of the waterfall, the highest margin product that then have multiplier effect to the whole organization, and that has begun.

最後一塊是我們一直在等待的，即併購門票，正如你所知，這是瀑布的頂部，是利潤率最高的產品，然後對整個組織產生乘數效應，而這已經開始了。

The pipeline is very strong, depending on how you measure it, the strongest it's been in 5 to 10 years, maybe even longer, and we are excited about pushing that through to the rest of the investment bank.

管道非常強大，取決於你如何衡量它，這是 5 到 10 年甚至更長時間以來最強大的，我們很高興能將其推廣到投資銀行的其他部門。

What I've said and I would repeat here too, just to give a lengthy answer, Glenn, is that on ISG wallet share, we are clear that we want those share gains to be durable, which is why we didn't go with quantification.

我已經說過的話，我也會在這裡重複一遍，只是為了給出一個冗長的答案，格倫，就 ISG 錢包份額而言，我們很清楚我們希望這些份額收益能夠持久，這就是為什麼我們沒有選擇量化。

We want those gains to be ones that are not gains by reaching concentration risk, counterparty risk, but the clients know we are serious about bringing ISG to the four, and that the Integrated firm now is bringing together these world-class Wealth and Investment Management businesses with our investment bank.

我們希望這些收益不是透過達到集中風險、交易對手風險而獲得的收益，但客戶知道我們非常認真地將 ISG 納入四強，而這家綜合公司現在正在將這些世界一流的財富和投資管理匯集在一起與我們的投資銀行開展業務。

And the proof is in the pudding.

證據就在布丁中。

This past year, 100-basis-point gain, plus or minus in the investment bank to roughly 15% wallet in a growing denominator.

去年，投資銀行的收益增加或減少了 100 個基點，約佔錢包的 15%（分母不斷成長）。

And as you can tell, given we've been quite disciplined on RWA growth against that, and you see the operating leverage in the income statement, it's fair to say the institution at large is very excited.

如您所見，鑑於我們對 RWA 成長一直非常嚴格，而且您在損益表中看到了營運槓桿，可以公平地說，整個機構都非常興奮。

(Operator Instructions) Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

（操作員指令）Ebrahim Poonawala，美國銀行。

I guess maybe just -- I know this is -- you've addressed this in prior calls, but as we think about just investments in systems as it pertains to AML, BSA on the Wealth Management side, if you don't mind addressing where the firm stands there today in terms of sort of meeting all the higher standards from a regulatory compliance standpoint.

我想也許只是——我知道這是——你在之前的電話會議中已經解決了這個問題，但當我們考慮到與財富管理方面的AML、BSA 相關的系統投資時，如果你不介意解決這個問題從監管合規的角度來看，該公司今天在滿足所有更高標準方面處於領先地位。

And I think the essence of my question is, as we think about the growth opportunity in terms of international wealth, do you need to sort of get your ducks lined up on the AML, BSA front in order to pursue those more aggressively or actively?

我認為我的問題的本質是，當我們考慮國際財富方面的成長機會時，您是否需要在反洗錢、BSA 方面做好準備，以便更積極或更積極地追求這些目標？

Thank you for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

I think that the way I would answer your question is more fulsome than just specifically looking at one particular sector.

我認為我回答你問題的方式比僅僅專門關注某一特定領域更充實。

The point that I would underscore is the results in this business speak for themselves.

我要強調的一點是，這項業務的結果不言而喻。

In terms of the investment, the ability to attract clients both existing assets as well as new clients across the Wealth Management platform.

在投資方面，透過財富管理平台吸引客戶現有資產和新客戶的能力。

So that's the first point that I would make.

這就是我要說的第一點。

Second point that I would make is that over the course of the -- not just the last year but really multiple years, we've been investing in all of our processes and our systems in order to engage and make sure that we have a robust infrastructure to grow broadly and meet all of our growth objectives.

我要說的第二點是，在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在投資我們的所有流程和系統，以便參與並確保我們擁有強大的基礎設施來廣泛成長並實現我們所有的成長目標。

And that has to do with everything that I mentioned across the technology side across better understanding our data, better servicing our clients in terms of investment dollars and in terms of the underlying infrastructure.

這與我在技術方面提到的一切有關，包括更好地理解我們的數據，在投資資金和底層基礎設施方面更好地為我們的客戶提供服務。

So what we're trying to do and what we've been actively pursuing is making sure that across the firm, not just specific to wealth, we can service and look and impact all of our clients.

因此，我們正在努力做的事情以及我們一直在積極追求的事情是確保整個公司，而不僅僅是財富方面，我們能夠服務、關注並影響我們所有的客戶。

And moreover, you can see that very well in terms of our ability to actually continue to attract assets.

此外，從我們實際繼續吸引資產的能力來看，您可以清楚地看到這一點。

We'll be making all of the necessary investments to continue to be world-class, both across people and our technology.

我們將進行所有必要的投資，以在人員和技術方面繼續保持世界一流水平。

Got it.

知道了。

And I guess separate question, slide 13 with regards to the investment into the bank.

我想另一個問題，投影片 13 是關於對銀行的投資。

Just remind us in terms of the -- where we stand in terms of the integration of the bank and as we think about with some of your peers where the bank and the wealth businesses probably are fully integrated?

請提醒我們－我們在銀行整合方面的立場，以及我們與一些同行一起思考銀行和財富業務可能完全整合的情況？

Are we there yet?

我們到了嗎？

And then what's the opportunity when you think about just deposit growth from your wealth management clients that you can bring on board?

那麼，當您考慮可以從您的財富管理客戶那裡帶來的存款成長時，機會是什麼？

We're definitely not there yet.

我們肯定還沒到那裡。

We are -- we still have a lot of to do when we think about the bank.

當我們考慮銀行時，我們還有很多事情要做。

I've always both internally and for those -- for many externally, have felt that the bank itself is an incredible growth engine across the institution.

我一直認為，無論是內部人士還是外部人士，銀行本身就是整個機構令人難以置信的成長引擎。

If you look at our bank, we obviously started our bank much later than many of the peers that we now compete with from a commercial bank perspective.

如果你看看我們的銀行，我們的銀行顯然比我們現在從商業銀行角度競爭的許多同行要晚得多。

We have a very different deposit mix than others.

我們的存款組合與其他人截然不同。

And what's so interesting, our deposit mix is that over 70% of our deposits has come from our Wealth Management clients.

有趣的是，我們的存款組合中超過 70% 的存款來自我們的財富管理客戶。

Now there is -- that's currently, as you know, is largely coming from sweeps and for savings accounts.

現在，如你所知，目前這主要來自掃款和儲蓄帳戶。

There's much more that we can do when we when we think about the deposit franchise itself, and then we could talk a little bit also about the other side of the balance sheet.

當我們考慮存款特許經營權本身時，我們可以做更多的事情，然後我們也可以談談資產負債表的另一面。

But we're investing in those deposit opportunities.

但我們正在投資這些存款機會。

Remember we didn't really have bank rails until we bought E*TRADE.

請記住，在我們購買 E*TRADE 之前，我們並沒有真正擁有銀行鐵路。

That was part of the value proposition of acquiring E*TRADE and working with those bank rails to offer real checking accounts and continue to have a savings account offering.

這是收購 E*TRADE 並與這些銀行合作提供真實支票帳戶並繼續提供儲蓄帳戶服務的價值主張的一部分。

Moreover, as you think about the work we're doing to invest the banking products within Workplace, you now have different ways to manage cash and cash alternatives for the actual underlying employees, as Ted talked about from an Integrated firm perspective.

此外，當您考慮我們在 Workplace 投資銀行產品時所做的工作時，您現在可以採用不同的方式來管理實際底層員工的現金和現金替代方案，正如 Ted 從綜合公司的角度談到的那樣。

So there's much more that we can do with servicing and growing that deposit base over time.

因此，隨著時間的推移，我們可以在服務和擴大存款基礎方面做更多的事情。

As you think about the lending side and you think about where we are, we continue to see opportunities to help our wealth clients as they expand their lending needs, and we better understand their portfolios.

當您想到貸款方面並想到我們所處的位置時，我們繼續看到幫助我們的財富客戶擴大貸款需求的機會，並且我們更好地了解他們的投資組合。

Moreover, just holistically, as Ted mentioned in the slide, there are places where we are still working to move eligible ISG assets on to the bank.

此外，從整體來看，正如 Ted 在幻燈片中提到的，我們仍在努力將符合條件的 ISG 資產轉移到銀行。

That should help Institutional Securities as you think about the actual funding profile associated with those assets.

當您考慮與這些資產相關的實際資金狀況時，這應該會對機構證券有所幫助。

So there are many places that when you look overall at the Integrated firm, the bank plays an important role in making sure we have the ability to see that grow.

因此，當你整體審視綜合公司時，在很多地方，銀行在確保我們有能力看到成長方面發揮著重要作用。

Yeah.

是的。

Ebrahim, I'll tag on to that.

易卜拉欣，我會繼續強調這一點。

Deposit side, we're going to service clients across all three channels in wealth.

存款方面，我們將透過所有三個財富管道為客戶提供服務。

The FA channel, the everyday transaction offering, cash plus type of offering in E*TRADE.

FA 通路、E*TRADE 中的日常交易產品、現金加類型產品。

We're going to continue to focus on checking accounts with competitive rates integrating products into the client journey as they move along with E*TRADE to potentially a classic FA.

我們將繼續專注於具有競爭力的利率的支票帳戶，將產品整合到客戶旅程中，因為它們與 E*TRADE 一起發展為潛在的經典 FA。

And then -- as you know, we've been really banging the drum on Workplace where we can partner with companies to reach employees.

然後，如您所知，我們一直在大力宣傳 Workplace，我們可以與公司合作接觸員工。

And on the loan side, as Sharon said, we've been growing loans steadily.

在貸款方面，正如莎倫所說，我們一直在穩步增加貸款。

The loans number in wealth, as you know, was about [$80 billion] in the fourth quarter of '18.

如您所知，2018 年第四季財富貸款額約為 [800 億美元]。

That's doubled to

翻倍為

[$160 billion].

[1600 億美元]。

We grew that every quarter in '24.

我們在 24 年每季都有成長。

We're a bank, we lend, and we have to do that in the context of deepening relationships.

我們是一家銀行，我們提供貸款，而且我們必須在深化關係的背景下做到這一點。

We lend to about 16% of our households and the best-in-class peers are higher.

我們向約 16% 的家庭提供貸款，一流的同業貸款比例更高。

They're 50% higher, mid-20s.

他們的年齡比 20 多歲高出 50%。

So as Sharon said, there's real opportunity.

正如莎倫所說，這是真正的機會。

And then in ISG, we're we've been growing the lending capability there too, up about 15% year over year.

然後，在 ISG，我們也一直在提高貸款能力，年增約 15%。

So there's real focus on this and upside, but there's also been I think back to the concept of owning Morgan Stanley as a durable instrument that we that we are growing both deposits and loans in a smart way over the next 5, 10 years, you can expect these numbers to continue to move higher.

因此，人們真正關注這一點和上行空間，但我也回想起擁有摩根士丹利作為耐用工具的概念，我們認為我們將在未來 5 年、10 年以明智的方式增加存款和貸款，你預計這些數字將繼續走高。

Brennan Hawken, UBS.

布倫南霍肯，瑞銀集團。

Would love to follow-up on that -- some of that last discussion and talk about the loan growth.

我很樂意跟進最後的一些討論並談論貸款增長。

Because it seems like loan growth was -- the trends were better than certainly many were expecting last year.

因為貸款成長的趨勢似乎比去年許多人的預期要好。

And it feels like given the expectation of capital markets reopening, improving risk appetites, we should continue to see that building momentum.

考慮到資本市場重新開放、風險偏好改善的預期，我們應該會繼續看到這種勢頭的增強。

Could you talk a little bit below the surface around what you're seeing on the loan side?

您能談談您在貸款方面看到的情況嗎？

You spoke to it at a really high level before, but I'd just love to drill down and hear what you're seeing more recently.

您之前曾在非常高的層面上談過，但我很想深入了解並聽聽您最近所看到的內容。

And then where do you stand from a capability perspective?

那麼從能力的角度來看，你的立場是什麼？

Do you guys need to continue to build that out?

你們還需要繼續建構它嗎？

Or do you feel like you're fully ramped from a competitive perspective?

或者你覺得從競爭的角度來看你已經完全進步了嗎？

Thanks, Brennan.

謝謝，布倫南。

I'll take that.

我會接受的。

As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, as you alluded to, what we saw -- if you remember over the last -- since really interest rates began to rise, we saw a decline in the use of the SBL product.

正如我在準備好的演講中提到的，正如您所提到的，我們所看到的——如果您還記得上次的話——自從利率真正開始上升以來，我們看到SBL 產品的使用量下降。

And we often actually saw an increase in pay downs.

事實上，我們經常看到首付款的增加。

What's changed over the last -- particularly, we noted it this quarter is we've seen that pace of pay downs decline.

過去發生的變化——特別是，我們在本季度注意到，我們看到減薪速度有所下降。

And then we've actually seen an increased use of the line.

然後我們實際上看到該線路的使用增加。

The important part there is, as you know probably better than anyone else is that, that product is one that is often generally used in periods of time by our clients when you actually see markets rise.

重要的是，您可能比任何人都更清楚，該產品是我們的客戶在實際看到市場上漲時經常使用的產品。

And I wouldn't be surprised if we also begin to see it from a tax perspective as we enter the second part of the quarter.

當我們進入本季的第二部分時，如果我們也開始從稅收角度看待這個問題，我不會感到驚訝。

In terms of capabilities, I think we have the capabilities.

從能力上來說，我認為我們有能力。

There's clearly places you can still look from a tailored perspective.

顯然，您仍然可以從客製化的角度看待某些地方。

There's still capabilities when you think about the assets that we can move from an eligible perspective from the ISG side on to the bank, so it's a different portion of the question in terms of what we're doing from a legal entity perspective.

當你考慮到我們可以從 ISG 方面的合格角度將資產轉移到銀行時，我們仍然有能力，因此從法人實體角度來看，我們正在做的事情是問題的不同部分。

But overall, I think we're very happy with what we have from the Wealth Management perspective.

但總的來說，我認為從財富管理的角度來看，我們對我們所擁有的一切感到非常滿意。

And it's really about seeing the change in environment that should help the dynamics as we move forward to see that increase in loan growth.

這實際上是看到環境的變化，這應該有助於我們繼續看到貸款成長的成長。

And I think Integrated firm matters here because there is the ability for us now in our risk committee sessions to look at tailored lending as a form of a sophisticated structured product that has some institutional qualities to it.

我認為綜合公司在這裡很重要，因為我們現在有能力在風險委員會會議上將客製化貸款視為一種複雜的結構性產品，具有一定的製度品質。

So it's not so much the classic bifurcation of division by division, but more of a firm lens across what the commitments are at a time when we should see acceleration in both of the major sides of the house.

因此，這與其說是經典的逐部門的分歧，不如說是在我們應該看到眾議院兩個主要方面都在加速發展的時候，對承諾的堅定看法。

That's interesting when thinking about utilizing the balance sheet.

當考慮利用資產負債表時，這很有趣。

Thanks for that.

謝謝你。

I'm really sort of happy to ask this next question because of the focus on cash in the past year or so.

我真的很高興問下一個問題，因為過去一年左右的時間人們都在關注現金。

And now I don't have to worry about drawing Sharon's eyre when I ask about this.

現在當我問起這個問題的時候，我不用再擔心畫莎倫的眼睛了。

It seems like we're likely to have a pivot around cash trends, we've got stability and even a little growth in the sweep.

看起來我們很可能會圍繞現金趨勢進行調整，我們的資金量保持穩定，甚至略有成長。

And when you think about prior easing cycles, what has how long has it taken before we see some of the recycling out of those yield-oriented cash equivalents like CDs and money funds, which tend to be thinner margin into more market-oriented products that are higher margin.

當你考慮之前的寬鬆週期時，我們需要多長時間才能看到一些以收益為導向的現金等價物（如存款證和貨幣基金）的回收，這些產品的利潤率往往較低，進入更多以市場為導向的產品，利潤率較高。

How should we be thinking about that time line?

我們該如何考慮這個時間線？

Brennan, it might be the first time in two years that I'm excited to answer a sweeps question.

布倫南，這可能是兩年來我第一次很興奮地回答一個籠統的問題。

I am really encouraged by the signs that we see on the underlying sweep dynamics.

我對我們在潛在的掃蕩動態中看到的跡象感到非常鼓舞。

It's often actually plays to the fact that there is a lot that our clients can do and a lot that our clients are interested in right now.

實際上，這通常是基於這樣一個事實：我們的客戶可以做很多事情，而且我們的客戶現在對很多事情感興趣。

You see that in the transactional level of activity and all of the underlying trends as it relates to sweeps are actually playing out in that increase in transactional.

您會看到，在活動的交易等級以及與掃蕩相關的所有潛在趨勢實際上都在交易的增加中發揮作用。

So if I can just break it down, what we see -- we look at sweeps and we look at the underlying sweeps in multiple different layers.

因此，如果我能將其分解，我們會看到 - 我們查看掃描，並查看多個不同層中的底層掃描。

So how do you think about where the sweeps are going to products that are under one year?

那麼，您如何看待一年以內的產品將被淘汰？

How do you look at sweeps in terms of products over one year in terms of fixed income?

您如何看待一年以上固定收益產品的掃蕩？

And how do you look at sweeps going in and out of market?

您如何看待進出市場的掃蕩活動？

What you saw this particular quarter, which I found to be quite encouraging and fascinating in terms of the sentiment of the retail investor actually changing is that we saw a really strong increase of the flows moving from sweeps into market.

在這個特定的季度中，我發現散戶投資者情緒的實際變化非常令人鼓舞和令人著迷，我們看到從掃蕩到市場的資金流確實強勁增長。

So it's not as though they aren't using that cash to invest.

因此，他們並不是沒有使用這些現金進行投資。

They're just using that cash to look at it more transactionally to go into market and asset level products.

他們只是利用這些現金以更交易的方式進入市場和資產級產品。

That's point number one.

這是第一點。

Point number two is you began to see the fixed income products that were over one year mature and just sit there.

第二點是你開始看到成熟一年多的固定收益產品卻坐在那裡。

So it's though when you think about what is the retail client doing, they're waiting, they're getting those assets.

因此，當你考慮零售客戶在做什麼時，他們正在等待，他們正在獲得這些資產。

They're letting it mature, and it's just sitting in some sort of sweep product until they want to deploy those assets into the market.

他們正在讓它成熟，它只是坐在某種掃蕩產品中，直到他們想要將這些資產部署到市場上。

The final point is you're just seeing less activity go into various types of cash alternatives.

最後一點是，您只是看到各種類型的現金替代品的活動減少了。

And in my mind, that just means that this cash now that rates have come down, the markets are going up, it feels to be somewhat more normalized.

在我看來，這只是意味著既然利率已經下降，市場正在上漲，那麼這些現金感覺就更正常化了。

It's acting transactional, which is what we had always assumed there would be some level of transactional cash.

它具有交易性，這就是我們一直假設會有一定程度的交易性現金的情況。

And to your point, as that rate differential goes down, and it's no longer -- you can earn 5% from a cash product.

就你而言，隨著利率差異下降，你可以從現金產品中賺取 5% 的利息。

There are places and decisions of what individuals want to do with that cash.

人們想用這筆錢做什麼，有不同的地點和決定。

They're letting it sit, and they're using it to eventually invest in markets.

他們讓它靜置，並利用它最終投資市場。

And what you're seeing is that, that is actually taking place in the transactional line item.

您看到的是，這實際上發生在交易訂單項目中。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

麥克梅奧，富國銀行。

(technical difficulty) You were pretty bulled up on the markets and some of that's playing out.

（技術難度）您對市場相當樂觀，其中一些正在發揮作用。

But how much are your backlogs up or backlogs a record -- I'm not hearing record backlogs anymore.

但是你的積壓有多少或積壓了多少記錄——我不再聽到創紀錄的積壓了。

I hear up but not record, I'm just wondering how much you can monetize the backlogs that were in place, in some cases, I guess, one, two, or three years ago?

我聽到但沒有記錄，我只是想知道你可以將積壓的訂單貨幣化多少，我猜，在某些情況下，一年、兩年或三年前？

Yeah, depending on how you measure it, whether volume or unit -- number of units or sort of ag value, you see pipelines in the M&A product that are the highest in seven years.

是的，取決於你如何衡量它，無論是數量還是單位——單位數量還是 ag 值，你會看到併購產品中的管道是七年來最高的。

So that is that is really encouraging.

這確實令人鼓舞。

Now some of this will be dependent on how things roll out in the first couple of months of the incoming administration and how things feel on a cross-border basis.

現在，其中一些將取決於即將上任的政府在頭幾個月內的進展情況以及跨境基礎上的情況。

But the pent-up activity that we're seeing is starting to release.

但我們看到的被壓抑的活動正在開始釋放。

You saw some announcements going into the end of the year.

您看到了一些即將進入年底的公告。

You saw some very large capital raises that took place, where enormous capacity was filled for great names over a weekend or over a 24-hour period.

您會看到發生了一些非常大規模的融資，在一個週末或 24 小時內，巨大的產能就擠滿了知名人士。

And that -- we haven't seen that since really 2020, and that was totally different interest rate and backdrop context.

自 2020 年以來，我們還沒有看到過這種情況，那是完全不同的利率和背景環境。

So there is clearly demand even discussions for IPO potential, not just as an option versus selling to another sponsor or selling to a corporate.

因此，顯然存在對 IPO 潛力進行討論的需求，而不僅僅是作為出售給其他贊助商或出售給公司的選擇。

But in fact, a real option.

但事實上，這是一個真正的選擇。

So I am -- you're right, I've been bullish on this.

所以我——你是對的，我一直看好這一點。

It has taken some time, and I think we will have some unpredictability around regulation in one jurisdiction versus another.

這需要一些時間，而且我認為我們在一個司法管轄區與另一個司法管轄區的監管方面將會存在一些不可預測性。

But I think the demand to -- for some corporates to get bigger, to purify their businesses given the deglobalization effect, given climate, given interest rate transition, they have things to do.

但我認為，考慮到去全球化效應、考慮到氣候、考慮到利率轉型，一些企業需要做大、淨化自己的業務，他們有事情要做。

And then, again, the sponsors, they are looking to harvest some of these assets, given where prices are and that sort of mismatch of expectations versus the reality of what the market is willing to pay for good companies.

然後，贊助商再次希望收穫其中一些資產，考慮到價格水平以及預期與市場願意為優秀公司支付的現實之間的不匹配。

I think that's really starting to come together.

我認為這真的開始走到一起了。

And I would also say that the -- within the Investment Banking cylinder, i.e., M&A versus ECM versus DCM, that -- those sublines, as you know, have rotated over the last four, six quarters.

我還要說的是，在投資銀行領域內，即併購與 ECM 與 DCM，如您所知，這些子業務在過去四、六個季度中一直在輪換。

A couple of quarters ago, it was a great ECM quarter.

幾個季度前，這是一個很棒的 ECM 季度。

This past quarter was a DCM quarter.

上個季度是 DCM 季度。

That also is healthy.

這也是健康的。

It suggests that people in the treasury or CFO's office of large corporate clients are looking at all the toggles.

這表明大型企業客戶的財務部或首席財務官辦公室的人員正在關注所有的切換。

So it is an activity-based business.

所以它是一個基於活動的業務。

And I think '25 as we move through the year, if we continue to have reasonably constructive markets and reasonably predictable interest rates and reasonable sort of geopolitical backdrop.

我認為，如果我們繼續擁有合理的建設性市場、合理可預測的利率以及合理的地緣政治背景，那麼我們今年將迎來 25 週年。

I think we are going to see increasing activity as the year goes on.

我認為隨著時間的推移，我們將會看到越來越多的活動。

So you said the best backlog in seven years, was that for mergers or all Investment Banking?

所以你說七年來最好的積壓，是合併還是所有投資銀行？

Largely the M&A number, Mike.

主要是併購數量，麥克。

Globally.

全球範圍內。

Okay.

好的。

So yes, that's -- I guess that would be a lagging driver to the whole Capital Markets team.

所以，是的，我想這將成為整個資本市場團隊的滯後驅動力。

And for you guys, when you think of a multiplier of

對你們來說，當你們想到乘數時

--

--

Yes, yes.

是的，是的。

By the way, yes.

順便說一句，是的。

Yes, yes, on that, Mike.

是的，是的，關於這一點，麥克。

Exactly as you've been saying all along that, that is the last piece.

正如您一直在說的，這是最後一篇。

And there have been periods where it's sort of frustrating, stuff gets discussed at a sort of pre board approval level and then there's some unpredictability and it gets tabled.

有時候，這有點令人沮喪，一些事情在董事會批准前的層級上進行討論，然後出現一些不可預測性，然後就被擱置了。

But the sort of the inventory around stuff that is idea flow that is near announcement that piece of it is increasing, and it may not result ultimately in a merger ticket.

但圍繞著創意流的庫存，即將宣布其中一部分正在增加，並且最終可能不會導致合併。

It may actually turn into the company being carved out and taken public.

它實際上可能會變成公司被分拆並上市。

But I think what we are increasingly confident about, again, if the market and the economy holds up and those are ifs.

但我認為，如果市場和經濟持續成長，我們會越來越有信心，但這些都是假設。

But if they do, then you're going to see the entire corporate finance cylinder really kick into something that maybe looks like mid-90s activity class at corporate finance.

但如果他們這樣做了，那麼你就會看到整個企業財務週期真正進入了看起來像是 90 年代中期企業財務活動課程的階段。

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

史蒂文‧丘巴克，沃爾夫研究中心。

So I wanted to ask on the 30% Wealth Management margin target.

所以我想問理財保證金30%的目標。

Just taking a step back, you're already running at 29% on a core basis.

退後一步，您的核心核心利用率已經達到 29%。

Sharon, you cited a number of headwinds in the coming year, whether it's just NII inflecting, AUM growth, capital markets fee tailwinds I'm just trying to understand what would preclude you from getting to that goal this year?

Sharon，您列舉了來年的一些不利因素，無論是NII 變化、AUM 成長、資本市場費用順風，我只是想了解什麼會阻礙您今年實現這一目標？

And why isn't the longer-term aspiration something north of 30%, just given significant operating leverage in this model at scale?

考慮到該模型中規模龐大的營運槓桿，為什麼長期期望不超過 30%？

So I'll take that, Steve.

所以我會接受的，史蒂夫。

I just juxtapose this call to where we were a year ago and a lot of the conversations, obviously, as you think about the change in the rate environment, but then also very importantly, the change in the asset management fee revenues.

我只是將這次電話會議與一年前的情況以及許多對話進行對比，顯然，當你考慮利率環境的變化時，但同樣非常重要的是，資產管理費收入的變化。

That has been a very large contributor to the point that you're making, where we've seen the fee-based increase.

這對您所提出的觀點做出了很大的貢獻，我們已經看到了基於費用的成長。

We've seen the AUM and then we've seen the revenues.

我們已經看到了資產管理規模，然後我們也看到了收入。

But I don't want to lose sight of the fact that we're investing in this business.

但我不想忽視我們正在投資這項業務的事實。

And that investment is very important.

這項投資非常重要。

We've always said over the course of the last five years, we can get to 30%.

過去五年我們一直說我們可以達到 30%。

But we don't want to starve the business.

但我們不想讓生意挨餓。

We want to do it in a durable manner.

我們希望以持久的方式做到這一點。

And we want to make sure that we are able to invest specifically in the places that might be margin dilutive.

我們希望確保我們能夠專門投資於可能會攤薄利潤的領域。

Those are workplace.

這些都是工作場所。

There are different parts of marketing and investment in the sales cycle as you think about self-directed, putting money towards the top of the funnel, putting money towards technology that actually helps match places where you have the top of the funnel into the advisor-led channel.

當你考慮自我導向時，行銷和投資在銷售週期中有不同的部分，將資金投入到漏斗的頂部，將資金投入到技術上，這些技術實際上有助於將漏斗頂部的位置與顧問相匹配-引導頻道。

All of that is working.

所有這些都在發揮作用。

So the last thing one would want to do is put a target out there, see a change in dynamics associated with all of a sudden markets go down or there's some shock that we're unaware of you're unable to meet those targets and you pull back investments.

因此，人們最不想做的就是設定一個目標，看到與市場突然下跌相關的動態變化，或者我們沒有意識到您無法實現這些目標而感到震​​驚撤回投資。

That's not how we want to run this.

這不是我們想要的運作方式。

As Ted said in his prepared remarks, the word across this entire -- these scripts is durable.

正如特德在他準備好的演講中所說，整個過程中的一句話——這些腳本是持久的。

We're looking for durable margins.

我們正在尋找持久的利潤。

We're looking for durable growth.

我們正在尋找持久的成長。

We're looking for durable returns.

我們正在尋找持久的回報。

All of that comes into play as we think about the actual investment in the business over time.

當我們考慮隨著時間的推移對業務的實際投資時，所有這些都會發揮作用。

Yeah.

是的。

And what I would add to that is the extraordinary performance of weath you just look at the fact that revenues grew by 8% year over year, but PBT grew by 19%.

我要補充的是，Weath 的非凡表現，你只需看看收入同比增長 8% 的事實，但 PBT 增長了 19%。

So that's the kind of progress against larger numbers that we are excited to see and a full contribution to the firm outcome.

因此，這就是我們很高興看到的更多數字的進展，以及對公司成果的全面貢獻。

It's great to hear.

很高興聽到。

Just one quick follow-up, Sharon.

莎倫，我只想快速跟進。

You referenced the recently announced partnership with Carta and was hoping to double-click into some of the tangible financial benefits from leveraging that partnership just given the number of plan participants, it's been pretty stagnant over the last few quarters, but certainly feels as though this could be a potential accelerant maybe help reinvigorate growth within that channel.

您提到了最近宣布的與Carta 的合作夥伴關係，並希望雙擊該合作夥伴關係所帶來的一些切實的經濟利益，只是考慮到計劃參與者的數量，它在過去幾個季度中一直相當停滯，但肯定感覺好像這可能是潛在的促進劑，可能有助於重振該管道的成長。

Yeah.

是的。

So let me just first -- I'll take the second part of your question first because there is some stuff to unpack when you actually look at the underlying participants.

所以首先讓我——我將首先回答你問題的第二部分，因為當你實際查看底層參與者時，有一些東西需要解開。

We have talked about, and we've seen -- we will see a transition from some of the stock sale plans, that we have sold and announced both in Europe and in Asia that are associated with the actual participants.

我們已經討論過，並且已經看到 - 我們將看到一些股票銷售計劃的轉變，我們已經在歐洲和亞洲出售並宣布了與實際參與者相關的股票銷售計劃。

So I just want to be clear that, there are other underlying factors in there.

所以我想澄清的是，還有其他潛在因素。

The other point that I would mention is we have not been in a cycle in which -- especially over the last two years that you've seen a lot of monetization events.

我要提到的另一點是，我們還沒有經歷過一個週期——尤其是在過去兩年裡，你看到了很多貨幣化事件。

And so you have changes really in the workforce dynamics for many of these companies where you might have seen headcount reductions.

因此，對於許多這樣的公司來說，勞動力動態確實發生了變化，你可能會看到員工人數的減少。

You might have seen acquisitions in which some of those stock plan participants decline.

您可能會看過一些股票計劃參與者拒絕收購的情況。

I don't want you to read into that as though there's not investment or it's not growing, because we continue to meet win mandates, and we continue to have expanded corporate relationships.

我不希望你讀到這一點，就好像沒有投資或沒有成長一樣，因為我們繼續滿足勝利的要求，並且我們繼續擴大企業關係。

So that's important as we talk about where are we investing are investing and we're seeing progress as we continue to have greater breadth of corporates that we service within the United States, in particular.

因此，當我們談論我們在哪裡投資時，這一點很重要，隨著我們繼續為更多的企業提供服務，特別是在美國境內，我們看到了進展。

Now as it relates to Carta, and I'm glad you mentioned and asked the question is that's a really exciting partnership, especially as the capital market cycle turns.

現在，就 Carta 而言，我很高興您提到並提出這個問題，這是一個非常令人興奮的合作夥伴關係，尤其是在資本市場週期轉變的情況下。

So as you're likely aware, Carta does service private companies, in particular.

正如您可能知道的那樣，Carta 尤其為私人公司提供服務。

And what we have now done in the relationship that we announced at the end of last year was that we have an exclusive partnership with Carta, which means that they will refer those private different stock plans or different corporate companies to Morgan Stanley as they move into going public.

我們在去年年底宣布的關係中所做的就是我們與Carta 建立了獨家合作夥伴關係，這意味著他們將在這些私人不同的股票計劃或不同的公司公司進入摩根士丹利時將其轉介給摩根士丹利。

It's really exciting for many reasons, not just the opportunities on the wealth side, but also, as Ted talked a lot about, is the Integrated firm.

這確實令人興奮，原因有很多，不僅是財富方面的機會，而且正如特德談到的那樣，是一家綜合公司。

So there's a lot of places to build out those relationships as those companies are going through that transition.

因此，當這些公司正在經歷這種轉變時，有很多地方可以建立這些關係。

Moreover, what we are committed to doing as we go through that transition is to make sure that it's a seamless experience for those clients.

此外，在過渡過程中，我們致力於確保為這些客戶提供無縫體驗。

As you know, we already do service individually, some of those private companies as they move public have that seamless experience, both from a Carta referral perspective and even what we see that's currently on the books.

如您所知，我們已經單獨提供服務，其中一些私人公司在上市時擁有無縫的體驗，無論是從 Carta 推薦的角度來看，還是從我們目前在帳簿上看到的角度來看。

Christian Bolu, Autonomous.

克里斯蒂安·博盧，自治。

Ted and Sharon.

特德和莎倫。

Maybe on Wealth Management organic growth, first of all, so if I look at flows over the last three years, total flows have been so much short of that sort of $1 trillion target and have been at the lower end of your 5% to 7% organic growth target.

首先，也許是財富管理的有機成長，所以如果我看看過去三年的流量，總流量遠低於 1 兆美元的目標，並且一直處於 5% 到 7% 的下限。

So maybe just talk through how you think about the ability to accelerate organic growth going forward?

那麼，也許只是談談您如何看待未來加速有機成長的能力？

And then maybe confidence level in that $1 trillion target.

然後也許是對 1 兆美元目標的信心水準。

So the -- what I would like to note here is, this is a really -- I think in the environment that we've been in the last two years, I think this is a remarkable outcome.

因此，我想在這裡指出的是，這確實是一個非常好的結果，我認為在我們過去兩年所處的環境中，我認為這是一個了不起的結果。

Especially if you look and you compare it to our peer set and anyone who's been able to actually aggregate assets, we are best-in-class.

特別是如果你觀察並將其與我們的同行以及任何能夠實際聚合資產的人進行比較，我們是一流的。

And a lot of that best-in-class has to do with the fact that -- and I mentioned this in my prepared remarks, the vast majority of the assets, the new assets that we're seeing over the course of this last year has been on the adviser-led channel.

許多一流的資產都與這樣一個事實有關——我在準備好的發言中提到了這一點，絕大多數資產，我們在去年看到的新資產已在顧問主導的頻道上。

And we've talked about some of the headwinds that are going from a cyclical perspective, that I think are beginning to abate.

我們已經討論了從週期性角度來看的一些不利因素，我認為這些不利因素正在開始減弱。

And those have been spending of money a year necessarily -- not necessarily seeing as much money in motion, and you aren't seeing modernization events from Workplace corporates.

這些支出必然是每年的支出——不一定會看到那麼多的資金在流動，而且你也看不到來自工作場所企業的現代化活動。

So you add the self-directed channel, you're not necessarily seeing as much money coming in.

所以你加入了自主管道，你不一定會看到那麼多的錢進來。

From the Workplace side, you're not necessarily seeing monetization events.

從工作場所的角度來看，您不一定會看到貨幣化事件。

So people aren't getting that cash.

所以人們拿不到這筆現金。

You're not seeing companies going public.

你不會看到公司上市。

Those things are beginning to turn.

這些事情開始轉變。

And so these results were really led from the advisor-led channel from new clients and existing clients, new clients being really important.

因此，這些結果實際上是來自新客戶和現有客戶的顧問主導管道，新客戶非常重要。

And so I think that there's a lot of opportunity there in terms of the 5% to 7%.

所以我認為 5% 到 7% 的人有很多機會。

Yeah.

是的。

What I'd add to that, Christian, is sort of a big picture answer and a little picture answer.

克里斯蒂安，我要補充的是，有一個大局答案和一個小局答案。

My little picture answer would be just taking a look again at slide 9, fee-based flows.

我的簡短回答只是再看一下投影片 9，也就是基於費用的流程。

That is the -- that's sort of the core of the funnel.

這就是漏斗的核心。

And we've been talking about that every quarter.

我們每季都會討論這個問題。

And Jed Finn running Wealth, very much has been focused on that, too.

管理《財富》的 Jed Finn 也非常關注這一點。

And you see that the number just continues to move. $109 billion last year or two years ago, $123 billion in 2024.

你會看到這個數字還在繼續改變。去年或兩年前為 1,090 億美元，到 2024 年將達到 1,230 億美元。

So fee-based flows, that's kind of the ultimate outcome.

因此，基於費用的流量，這就是最終的結果。

And you see that we are seeing this incremental activity now in the self-directed product from clients who have the kind of experience that we talk about when they make their way to a financial adviser, it could prove very sticky.

你看，我們現在在自我導向的產品中看到了這種增量活動，這些活動來自客戶，這些客戶擁有我們在尋求財務顧問時所談論的那種經驗，這可能會非常具有黏性。

My big picture observation, though, would be, one, and I know you know this, but by way of sort of a reminder, just given what's happened in the market over the last year, when we did this call a year ago, the combined assets for Wealth and Investment Management stood at $6.6 trillion.

不過，我的總體觀察是，一個，我知道你知道這一點，但作為提醒，考慮到去年市場發生的情況，當我們一年前進行此電話會議時，財富與投資管理的總資產達6.6 萬億美元。

And as you know, we said we're going to get to $10 trillion, and we're going to keep going.

如您所知，我們說過我們將達到 10 兆美元，並且我們將繼續前進。

And in the year, we've gone from $6.6 trillion to $7.9 trillion.

這一年，我們的收入從 6.6 兆美元增加到 7.9 兆美元。

So that is a $1.3 trillion in a year.

那麼一年就是 1.3 兆美元。

Now of course, we've had the kind of markets that are take asset prices higher.

當然，現在我們已經有了資產價格走高的市場。

But that, I think, speaks for itself in terms of our ability to continue to stay on what really is what I would have folks paying attention to, which is just this commitment to get to $10 trillion, And whether that takes X years or X plus one years or X plus two years, we want to get the kind of assets that ultimately work their way through the funnel, and you say, well, what's the KPI there.

但我認為，這本身就說明我們有能力繼續堅持我希望人們關注的目標，即實現 10 兆美元目標的承諾，無論這需要 X 年還是 X加一年或X 加兩年，我們希望獲得最終透過漏斗的資產，你會說，那裡的KPI 是多少。

And I see the KPI there is going back to slide 9, which is are we increasing the TAM of relationships, and are we doing that across the financial advisory lever through workplace and through self-directed.

我看到那裡的 KPI 可以追溯到幻燈片 9，即我們是否增加了關係的 TAM，以及我們是否透過工作場所和自我指導在財務諮詢槓桿上做到了這一點。

Are we doing it all of three?

我們三個都在做嗎？

The answer is yes.

答案是肯定的。

Are we seeing enough net new assets, as it's actually material.

我們是否看到足夠的淨新資產，因為它實際上很重要。

And clearly, at [$250 billion] per annum, that is a material number.

顯然，每年 [2500 億美元]，這是一個重要的數字。

And then how we're doing on that, which you can model a multiple, a nice multiple on, which is fee-based flows.

然後我們是如何做的，你可以建模一個倍數，一個很好的倍數，這是基於費用的流量。

And there it is on the right.

它就在右邊。

So I'm -- less wrapped around the axle on whether we are at [$700 billion] or [$800 billion] versus [$1 trillion, $2 trillion, $3 trillion] in a given three-year period and more focused on sort of the composition of the funnel that the assets are growing materially, but that ultimately, we are translating that across a broader number of clients, again, [19-plus million], and that, that ultimately, at least for some of them, translates into financial advisory fee-based flows and that's the right side.

因此，我不太關心在給定的三年期間我們是處於[7000 億美元] 還是[8000 億美元] 與[1 萬億美元、2 萬億美元、3 萬億美元]，而是更關注某種漏斗的組成表明，資產正在大幅增長，但最終，我們將其轉化為更廣泛的客戶，再次，[19+百萬]，最終，至少對其中一些客戶來說，轉化為財務諮詢收費流量，這是正確的一面。

So that's kind of the way we're thinking about it, Christian, in the context now of the Integrated firm.

克里斯蒂安，這就是我們在整合公司的背景下思考這個問題的方式。

Very fair.

非常公平。

Maybe another quick one here on just a comp leverage, very strong expenses, especially in ISG comp.

也許這裡還有一個快速的例子，只是一個補償槓桿，非常強大的費用，特別是在 ISG 補償中。

And I'm sorry if I missed this in the prepared remarks but is the 2024 full year ISG comp ratio of 31% kind of a good place to run going forward, obviously, as [human] revenue continues to grow?

如果我在準備好的演講中錯過了這一點，我很抱歉，但顯然，隨著[人類]收入持續增長，2024 年全年 ISG 補償比率 31% 是一個繼續前進的好地方嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Obviously, Christian, as you can tell, we look at comp on a full year basis, and you did have outperformance as it relates to the revenue in the fourth quarter on a relative basis.

顯然，克里斯蒂安，正如你所知道的，我們以全年為基礎來考察公司的業績，你的表現確實出色，因為它與第四季度的收入相關。

And so you do see changes within that comp.

所以你確實看到了該組合中的變化。

We don't give full year guidance specifically on one expense line.

我們不會專門針對某一支出項目提供全年指導。

We manage the company holistically.

我們對公司進行整體管理。

When we think about our expenses, we're looking at our overall efficiency of the firm.

當我們考慮開支時，我們會考慮公司的整體效率。

And what I would pay attention to is on the last page of the targets, the 70% efficiency ratio goal that we have stated over the long term.

我要注意的是目標的最後一頁，我們提出的長期目標是70%的效率目標。

And what I'd add to that is, listen, we're running a talent business.

我要補充的是，聽著，我們正在經營人才事業。

And so we pay for performance.

因此，我們按績效付費。

And performance comes in sort of the upside for our partners comes in two forms.

對我們的合作夥伴來說，業績帶來的好處有兩種形式。

One is through compensation over many years, which is why tenure matters.

一是透過多年的補償，這就是任期很重要的原因。

And of course, total return in stock ownership, which is, as you know, a critical part of partner compensation.

當然，還有股權總回報，如您所知，這是合夥人薪酬的重要組成部分。

So that is the thinking.

這就是我們的想法。

Of course, when you have good years, you experienced some operating leverage and comp which then flows to the bottom line in tougher years, as you know, the comp ratio moves higher.

當然，當你有好的年份時，你會經歷一些營運槓桿和補償，然後在困難的年份流向底線，如你所知，補償比率會上升。

What we did do in 2023 in the second half was some of the tough work around culling and doing some lateral work, and that obviously has the if it's done right, both enhances the efficiency of the income statement, but also allows for some incremental productivity on the top line of those bankers and traders and salespeople and structures and risk management folks as they begin to kind of gestate over the two, three years after that.

我們在 2023 年下半年所做的工作是圍繞剔除和進行一些橫向工作進行一些艱鉅的工作，顯然，如果做得正確，既可以提高損益表的效率，又可以提高生產力在那些銀行家、交易員、銷售人員、結構和風險管理人員的頂線上，他們在那之後的兩三年內開始醞釀。

So we feel like we came out at a good place there.

所以我們覺得我們來到了一個好地方。

(Operator Instructions) Devin Ryan, Citizens JMP.

（操作員說明）Devin Ryan，Citizens JMP。

I just have one on investment management.

我只有一篇關於投資管理的文章。

Slide 12, you lay out, Parametric's been a great success story in the alternative bucket.

在投影片 12 中，您可以看到，參數化在另類領域取得了巨大的成功。

Investment management overall, it's still less than 10% of firm-wide revenue.

整體而言，投資管理仍低於公司整體收入的 10%。

And I know the alts bucket specifically is an area of focus.

我知道替代品桶是一個特別值得關注的領域。

But I'm curious, areas like private equity, private credit, there's a lot of secular growth there.

但我很好奇，私募股權、私人信貸等領域有許多長期成長。

I know you've had ambitions to grow private credit.

我知道您有發展私人信貸的雄心。

But how do you think about that becoming a larger strategic piece of Morgan Stanley?

但您如何看待這成為摩根士丹利更大的戰略部分？

And what's the appetite there to maybe do acquisitions to step function or accelerate that?

他們有什麼興趣透過收購來推動或加速這一進程？

So when we look at -- what I would focus you on as we think about Investment Management more broadly is the fact that, as you know, we are looking to create a diversified platform.

因此，當我們更廣泛地思考投資管理時，我會讓您關注的事實是，正如您所知，我們正在尋求創建一個多元化的平台。

And we obviously were able to do that, as you mentioned, through acquisitions and specifically through the acquisition of Eaton Vance when we think about both Parametric and a lot of the fixed income products.

正如您所提到的，我們顯然能夠透過收購，特別是當我們考慮參數產品和許多固定收益產品時，透過收購伊頓萬斯來做到這一點。

We're beginning to see a lot of reaping of those synergies across the more -- the Wealth Management business, across MSIM and across all of the initiatives that we laid out at the beginning.

我們開始看到財富管理業務、MSIM 以及我們一開始製定的所有措施都取得了許多協同效應。

So remember, what we said is we thought we -- there was more to do on Parametric, specifically on the retail side, that's working.

所以請記住，我們所說的是我們認為——在參數化方面還有更多工作要做，特別是在零售方面，這是有效的。

We're seeing increased participation from our FAs, retail clients and even asset managers to leverage that Parametric product.

我們看到我們的 FA、零售客戶甚至資產管理公司越來越多地參與利用該參數化產品。

We have also noted that we plan to think about things like fixed income and use fixed income and see international distribution.

我們還注意到，我們計劃考慮固定收益等問題，並使用固定收益並查看國際分配。

That was evidenced this quarter.

本季證明了這一點。

A lot of the flows that we saw there have to do with international distribution.

我們在那裡看到的許多流量都與國際發行有關。

So the synergies themselves are working already.

因此，協同效應本身已經在發揮作用。

I think there's much more to do just on bringing the two franchises together.

我認為將這兩個系列結合在一起還有很多工作要做。

And as we see continued investment with different parts of private credit, different parts of private equity, different parts of infrastructure, we will take part in these secular growth trends as they move forward.

當我們看到私人信貸不同部分、私募股權不同部分、基礎設施不同部分的持續投資時，我們將參與這些長期成長趨勢的發展。

Dan Fannon, Jefferies.

丹‧範農，傑弗里斯。

One more question just on wealth.

還有一個關於財富的問題。

Can you talk about adviser retention and the kind of recruitment and backlogs here?

您能談談顧問的保留以及招募和積壓的情況嗎？

And then you used to talk about the companion accounts within wealth and workplace.

然後您曾經談論財富和工作場所中的同伴帳戶。

So curious if there's any update on where that sits and some of the progress you're seeing within that initiative.

很好奇是否有任何關於該計劃的最新進展以及您在該計劃中看到的一些進展。

Yes, I'll take that.

是的，我會接受的。

So in terms of the workplace in general and how we're beginning to see the transitions in the companion accounts.

因此，就整個工作場所以及我們如何開始看到同儕帳戶的轉變而言。

What I would focus you on is companion accounts were something that we were looking at, at the beginning of time when we had put together the E*TRADE and the Morgan Stanley platform.

我想讓您重點關注的是，在我們將 E*TRADE 和摩根士丹利平台整合在一起之初，我們就一直在考慮伴侶帳戶。

That integration is largely complete.

這種整合已基本完成。

What we're more focused now is actually better understanding the channel migration.

我們現在更關注的實際上是更好地理解渠道遷移。

And those are the numbers and statistics that we've been giving over the last couple of calls more specifically.

這些是我們在過去幾次電話會議中提供的更具體的數字和統計數據。

So what I mean by channel migration is we have Workplace assets that began at some point in Workplace, and we're seeing them move into the adviser-led concept.

因此，我所說的通路遷移的意思是，我們擁有在 Workplace 中某個時刻開始的 Workplace 資產，而我們看到它們正在轉向顧問主導的概念。

Over the last five years or so since 2020, seen $300 billion coming and initiating at some point from Workplace and moving into that adviser-led channel.

自 2020 年以來的過去五年左右的時間裡，有 3000 億美元從 Workplace 流入並在某個時候開始進入顧問主導的管道。

That has been a big part of the move towards first transactional, and then that movement from transactional flows into fee-based.

這是先轉向交易型，然後從交易型轉向收費型的轉變的重要組成部分。

So those are more of the metrics that I'd point you to on the forward when we think about being able to mark ourselves to market from a funnel perspective.

因此，當我們考慮能夠從漏斗角度將自己打入市場時，我會向您指出更多的指標。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

傑拉德·卡西迪，加拿大皇家銀行。

Many of us share your optimism on the outlook for Morgan Stanley in the business.

我們中的許多人與您一樣對摩根士丹利的業務前景持樂觀態度。

Can you share with us the risk -- aside from the obvious geopolitical risk globally, what risks or curve balls are you guys trying to keep your eyes on for this year because, again, things do look very good for yourselves and others.

您能否與我們分享一下風險——除了全球範圍內明顯的地緣政治風險之外，今年您還試圖關注哪些風險或曲線球，因為同樣，事情看起來對你們自己和他人來說確實非常好。

But what are some of the risks you guys talk about on a regular basis.

但是你們常談論的風險有哪些？

So needless to say, we're constantly running a number of stress tests as you think about the risks, geopolitical macro nature, counterparty risks.

因此，不用說，當你考慮風險、地緣政治宏觀性質、交易對手風險時，我們會不斷進行大量壓力測試。

And that's been a lot of the focus when you think about the velocity of the balance sheet and all of the capital metrics that we have is making sure that we're in a position to constantly refresh.

當你考慮資產負債表的速度和我們擁有的所有資本指標時，這一直是人們關注的焦點，以確保我們能夠不斷刷新。

And look, when we think about -- if we look back at any of the episodes that we've talked about and then a lot of the risks that we've learned, we are constantly thinking about where are their tall trees?

看看，當我們思考時，如果我們回顧我們討論過的任何事件，然後回顧我們學到的許多風險，我們就會不斷地思考他們的高樹在哪裡？

How do you see the velocity of different positions that you have?

您如何看待不同職位的速度？

So it's very hard to pin down and say, well, what match for a risk of you not necessarily solved for?

因此，很難確定並說，對於您不一定能解決的風險，什麼匹配？

Because generally speaking, there is something brand-new that one -- I don't know that anyone knew that there would be a global pandemic, right?

因為一般來說，有一些全新的東西——我不知道有人知道會有一場全球大流行，對吧？

But the underlying risk of what is a global pandemic mean.

但全球大流行意味著潛在的風險。

You think about even the risk that you might have seen over the course of this quarter.

您甚至會考慮在本季中可能看到的風險。

You have an election.

你們有選舉。

We don't know what's going to happen with the election.

我們不知道選舉會發生什麼事。

None of us knew what would necessarily happen with the election.

我們誰都不知道選舉必然會發生什麼事。

You look at the risk, you look at tall trees, you think about being able to bring down what can you bring down quickly?

你看看風險，你看看高大的樹木，你考慮能夠擊倒什麼，你可以快速擊倒什麼？

And how do you think about velocity?

您如何看待速度？

And then how do you run scenarios?

那麼如何運行場景呢？

What does it mean for higher rates?

更高的利率意味著什麼？

What does it mean for lower rates?

較低的利率意味著什麼？

And we look at different geographical exposures as well to try and better understand how we can manage all of that dynamism as you move forward.

我們也會研究不同的地理風險，以嘗試更好地了解我們如何在您前進的過程中管理所有這些活力。

I guess what I'd add to that, Gerard, is most of the risks that we have been looking at in this period are -- and Sharon kind of went through a whole panoply of them.

傑拉德，我想我要補充的是，我們在這段時期所關注的大部分風險都是──莎倫經歷了所有這些風險。

They are largely in the buckets of either the implications or the reality of regime change around interest rates.

它們很大程度上受到圍繞利率的政權更迭的影響或現實的影響。

That the period of zero interest rates and zero inflation has now passed, and that there's hot cold that we feel now tilted more towards inflation.

零利率和零通膨的時期已經過去，我們現在感覺更傾向於通膨。

And if there was a downside risk, it would be something that felt more stagflationary that we are running risk scenarios around that.

如果有下行風險，那麼我們圍繞該風險情境運作的風險情境就會讓人感覺更加滯脹。

Then there might be periods when it feels a little colder again.

然後可能會有一段時間再次感覺有點冷。

And that is all sort of imputed in the language of interest rate policy around the world.

這都是用世界各地的利率政策語言來估算的。

So that's sort of bucket one, the end of financial repression.

所以這就是第一桶金，金融抑制的結束。

And then bucket two is the geopolitical uncertainty intention that we're seeing that has built over the last number of years and will continue.

第二個面向是我們看到的地緣政治不確定性意圖，這種意圖在過去幾年中已經形成並將持續下去。

And that's important to us because, of course, we're running a global business.

這對我們來說很重要，因為我們正在經營一家全球業務。

So there may be places where there are re-equitization opportunities.

所以有些地方可能有再股權化的機會。

There may be places where there is outsized risk on behalf of clients, and we have to navigate that as well.

有些地方可能會為客戶帶來巨大的風險，我們也必須解決這個問題。

So those are the two major buckets, I think, of our time.

我認為，這是我們這個時代的兩個主要時期。

And that is why it's so important that we were able to put up a quarter that concluded a year where we had the kind of consistency we had on the top line, on the bottom line, we can't undertake that, that will be the case in every market context.

這就是為什麼我們能夠在一個季度結束的一年中保持我們在營收和利潤方面的一致性，這一點是如此重要，我們不能承諾這一點，這將是每個市場背景下的案例。

But if you think about the year we just had, there were multiple years within that year and the fact that the enterprise through the businesses we're in, was able to generate that kind of consistency on the top and bottom line.

但如果你想想我們剛剛度過的那一年，那一年裡有很多年，事實上，企業透過我們所在的業務，能夠在營收和利潤上產生這種一致性。

I think augurs well for a period where we think all things being equal, the denominator of opportunities should improve.

我認為，在我們認為一切條件平等的時期，機會的分母應該會有所改善，這是一個好兆頭。

There are no further questions at this time.

目前沒有其他問題。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you, everyone, for participating.

謝謝大家的參與。

You may now disconnect and have a great day.

您現在可以斷開連接並度過美好的一天。