摩根士丹利 (MS) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to Morgan Stanley second quarter 2025 earnings call. On behalf of Morgan Stanley, I will begin the call with the following information and disclaimers. This call is being recorded. During today's presentation, we will refer to our earnings release and financial supplement, copies of which are available at morganstanley.com.

早安.歡迎參加摩根士丹利 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。我將代表摩根士丹利在電話會議上開始以下資訊和免責聲明。此通話正在錄音。在今天的演示中，我們將參考我們的收益報告和財務補充資料，其副本可在 morganstanley.com 上取得。

Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. Morgan Stanley does not undertake to update the forward-looking statements in this discussion. Please refer to our notices regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures that appear in the earnings release. This presentation may not be duplicated or reproduced without our consent.

今天的演示可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果大不相同。摩根士丹利不承諾更新本討論中的前瞻性陳述。請參閱我們關於收益報告中出現的前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則指標的通知。未經我們的同意，不得複製或影印本簡報。

I will now turn the call over to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Ted Pick.

現在我將電話轉給董事長兼執行長泰德‧皮克 (Ted Pick)。

Thank you, and good morning. Thank you for joining us. The second quarter unfolded with two distinct halves. The first half began with uncertainty and market volatility associated with the US trade policy and the second half ended with increasing engagement and a steady rebound in capital markets. For the quarter, the firm delivered $16.8 billion in revenue, $2.13 in EPS and an 18.2% return on tangible, completing a very strong first half of 2025, $34.5 billion in revenue, $4.73 in EPS and a 20.6% return on tangible.

謝謝，早安。感謝您加入我們。第二季分成兩個截然不同的部分。上半年以美國貿易政策的不確定性和市場波動開始，下半年以參與度的提高和資本市場的穩定反彈結束。本季度，該公司實現了 168 億美元的收入、2.13 美元的每股收益和 18.2% 的有形回報率，2025 年上半年表現非常強勁，收入達到 345 億美元、4.73 美元的每股收益和 20.6% 的有形回報率。

With six sequential quarters of durable earnings, $2.02, $1.82, $1.88, $2.22, $2.60 and $2.13, Morgan Stanley results have a cadence that reflects consistently higher levels of performance as we execute our strategy through different market and macro backdrops. The results speak to the power of our integrated firm and the alignment of the firm's leadership team.

摩根士丹利連續六個季度實現持續盈利，分別為 2.02 美元、1.82 美元、1.88 美元、2.22 美元、2.60 美元和 2.13 美元，隨著我們在不同的市場和宏觀背景下執行我們的戰略，摩根士丹利的業績保持著持續的業績水平。結果證明了我們綜合公司的實力以及公司領導團隊的協調性。

With the expectation of a more constructive regulatory backdrop, we are intensely focused on generating returns on incremental capital deployment and investing for growth across the integrated firm globally. Total client assets across wealth and investment management climbed to over $8.2 trillion, reflecting our scale and gaining ground toward our target to exceed $10 trillion.

在預期監管環境更加積極的情況下，我們將重點放在增量資本部署的回報以及全球綜合公司的成長投資。財富和投資管理領域的客戶總資產攀升至 8.2 兆美元以上，反映了我們的規模，並朝著超過 10 兆美元的目標邁進。

In wealth, an excellent quarter. Profits before tax reached a record $2.2 billion on margins of 28% plus. Net new assets of $59 billion were strong despite higher seasonal tax payments. And fee-based flows of $43 billion demonstrate the value of advice amidst the complex environment and support durable growth of recurring fee-based revenues.

在財富方面，這是一個極好的季度。稅前利潤達到創紀錄的 22 億美元，利潤率超過 28%。儘管季節性稅收增加，但淨新資產仍達 590 億美元，表現強勁。430億美元的收費流量證明了諮詢在複雜環境中的價值，並支持了經常性收費收入的持久增長。

Ongoing investments in our world-class platform, including investments to support our advisers, a build-out of E*TRADE capabilities and the expansion of our central Workplace channel serve as an engine for future growth. In investment management, our leading -- industry-leading parametric platform as well as strong fixed income strategies have successfully positioned this business to achieve consistent long-term inflows, generating a positive $11 billion in the second quarter.

我們持續投資於世界一流的平台，包括支援我們的顧問的投資、E*TRADE 功能的建造以及我們中央 Workplace 管道的擴展，這些都將成為未來成長的引擎。在投資管理方面，我們領先的——行業領先的參數平台以及強大的固定收益策略已成功使該業務實現持續的長期流入，在第二季度產生了 110 億美元的正收入。

Our institutional franchise delivered revenues of $7.6 billion supported by our leading equities markets business that reached $3.7 billion top line. Despite a slowdown in strategic and capital markets activity for half of the quarter, our multiyear investments in our client franchise and global footprint are yielding results. A resumption of investment banking activity in June highlighted that clients turned to Morgan Stanley as market windows reopen and serve as momentum heading into the second half of 2025.

我們的機構特許經營業務實現了 76 億美元的收入，這得益於我們領先的股票市場業務，其收入達到 37 億美元。儘管本季一半時間策略和資本市場活動放緩，但我們對客戶特許經營和全球影響力的多年投資正在產生成果。6 月投資銀行活動的恢復凸顯了客戶隨著市場窗口重新開放而轉向摩根士丹利，並為進入 2025 年下半年提供動力。

Board rooms appear more accepting of ongoing uncertainty broadly, and we are leaning into our strategy to help clients navigate bouts of volatility. While we're still in the earlier stages of the investment banking recovery, the outstanding performance in equity underwriting this quarter is a positive leading indicator. Further, while there's clearly more work to do we are beginning to see bank regulatory reform progress.

董事會似乎普遍更接受持續存在的不確定性，我們也傾向於採用我們的策略來幫助客戶應對波動。雖然我們仍處於投資銀行復甦的早期階段，但本季股票承銷的出色表現是一個積極的領先指標。此外，雖然顯然還有很多工作要做，但我們開始看到銀行監理改革取得進展。

The new SLR proposal and potential for CCAR reform suggests the regulatory body continues to constructively reevaluate the total capital framework. With a CET1 ratio of 15%, we are 200 basis points plus above our forward capital requirement, which affords us ongoing flexibility to deploy capital. We now have a $1 per share dividend.

新的 SLR 提案和 CCAR 改革的可能性表明監管機構將繼續建設性地重新評估總資本框架。由於我們的 CET1 比率為 15%，比預期資本需求高出 200 個基點，這使我們能夠持續且靈活地部署資本。我們現在每股有 1 美元的股息。

Incremental capital deployment will range from supporting clients, growing our businesses, opportunistically buying back stock and evaluating inorganic opportunities where there is clear strategic alignment, all through the lens of generating strong and durable returns for our shareholders. Looking ahead, we remain constructive on the market environment.

增量資本部署將包括支援客戶、發展我們的業務、適時回購股票以及評估具有明確策略一致性的無機機會，所有這些都是為了為我們的股東創造強勁而持久的回報。展望未來，我們仍對市場環境持建設性態度。

Our strategy to raise, manage and allocate capital for clients across the wealth and institutional universe is working. Amidst continuing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, we are intensely focused on continuing to deliver outstanding durable results for clients and returns for shareholders.

我們為財富和機構領域的客戶籌集、管理和分配資本的策略正在發揮作用。在持續的經濟和地緣政治不確定性中，我們高度重視繼續為客戶帶來卓越持久的績效並為股東帶來回報。

Sharon will now take us through the quarter in greater detail. Over to you.

莎倫現在將向我們更詳細地介紹本季的情況。交給你了。

Thank you, and good morning. In the second quarter, the firm produced revenues of $16.8 billion. Our EPS was $2.13 and our ROTCE was 18.2%. The market backdrop varied materially over the course of the quarter, impacting investor sentiment and prompting clients to seek advice and reposition portfolios in response to evolving trends and themes. Amid this backdrop, our business performed very well.

謝謝，早安。第二季度，該公司營收為168億美元。我們的每股盈餘為 2.13 美元，ROTCE 為 18.2%。本季度，市場背景發生了重大變化，影響了投資者情緒，並促使客戶根據不斷變化的趨勢和主題尋求建議並重新配置投資組合。在此背景下，我們的業務表現非常好。

We benefited from our multi-year investments to drive organic growth in Wealth and Investment Management and to support our global footprint across the integrated investment bank. Deepening partnerships across the integrated firm positioned us well to capture momentum in the quarter. The firm's year-to-date efficiency ratio was 70%.

我們受益於多年的投資，推動了財富和投資管理的有機成長，並支持了我們在綜合投資銀行的全球影響力。整合後的公司內部合作夥伴關係的深化，為我們在本季抓住發展動能奠定了良好的基礎。該公司今年迄今的效率比率為 70%。

Efficiency gains remain a product of continued prioritization of our controllable spend and savings from prior space exits, self-funding investments and driving increased productivity by leveraging technology to support the Firm's strategy. Improved efficiency also comes despite higher execution-related costs on the back of elevated volumes broadly.

效率的提高仍然是我們繼續優先考慮可控支出和先前空間退出、自籌資金投資所節省的資金以及利用技術支持公司策略來提高生產力的結果。儘管由於交易量普遍增加導致執行相關成本上升，但效率也提高了。

Now to the businesses. institutional securities revenues were $7.6 billion, supported by our equity and fixed income markets franchises, and regionally, by period-over-period strength in Asia and EMEA. Results benefited from our ongoing investments in talent, global footprint and technology. enabling us to capture activity levels and meet clients' need for advice.

現在談談業務。機構證券收入為 76 億美元，這得益於我們的股票和固定收益市場特許經營權，以及亞洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區同比強勁的增長。業績得益於我們在人才、全球影響力和技術方面的持續投資，使我們能夠掌握活動水平並滿足客戶的建議需求。

The underlying businesses performance varied throughout the quarter. Our markets business captured client flow opportunities early on when activity levels were elevated. Investment banking paused for April and the first half of May, but activity recovered alongside rising asset levels. A rebound in performance of IPOs that had been priced earlier in the year supported prospective issuers to successfully come to market, further establishing investor and corporate confidence.

整個季度基礎業務的表現各不相同。當市場活動水準提高時，我們的市場業務很早就抓住了客戶流機會。4 月和 5 月上半月，投資銀行業務暫停，但隨著資產水準上升，業務活動也隨之恢復。今年稍早定價的 IPO 表現反彈，支持潛在發行人成功上市，進一步增強了投資者和企業的信心。

As a result, the integrated investment bank ended the quarter with strength. Investment banking revenues were $1.5 billion. Equity underwriting gained momentum following multiple years of subdued activity. And its rebound partially offset the year-over-year declines in debt underwriting and advisory. Regionally, strength out of Asia Pacific was supported by a healthy mix of activity across equity products.

因此，綜合投資銀行以強勁表現結束了本季。投資銀行收入為15億美元。經過多年的低迷之後，股票承銷活動開始復甦。其反彈部分抵消了債務承銷和諮詢業務的同比下降。從地區來看，亞太地區的強勁表現得益於各類股票產品的良好組合。

Advisory revenues were $508 million, reflecting lower completed activity. Equity underwriting revenues of $500 million improved meaningfully versus the prior year, driven by broad-based strength across products. Despite a slowdown in April and much of May, convertibles, follow-ons and IPO issuance all accelerated towards the end of the quarter as global issuers and investors gained confidence amid a market rebound.

諮詢收入為 5.08 億美元，反映出已完成活動減少。受各產品廣泛強勁表現的推動，股票承銷收入達 5 億美元，較上年有顯著成長。儘管 4 月和 5 月的大部分時間市場有所放緩，但隨著全球發行人和投資者在市場反彈的背景下信心增強，可轉換債券、後續發行和 IPO 發行在本季度末均有所加速。

Fixed income underwriting revenues were $532 million. Results declined versus the strong comparative period, primarily due to lower non-investment grade issuance. The M&A backlog continues to build across regions with a thematic focus on growth, supported by health care and technology. With a similar focus on growth companies, our IPO pipeline is balanced between the Americas and Asia, and issuers are poised to launch, subject to open markets.

固定收益承銷收入為5.32億美元。與同期強勁的業績相比，業績有所下降，主因是非投資等級債券發行量減少。各地區的併購積壓持續增加，主題重點在於成長，並得到醫療保健和技術的支持。由於同樣專注於成長型公司，我們的 IPO 管道在美洲和亞洲之間保持平衡，發行人隨時準備在開放市場的情況下推出 IPO。

We have been investing in strategic hires and corporate lending to expand and deepen our coverage footprint. And our results and recent announcements prove ongoing progress. As we continue to support clients who are increasingly accepting of uncertainty and in greater need for advice, we are well positioned to capture share as Investment Banking activity accelerates.

我們一直在投資策略招聘和企業貸款，以擴大和深化我們的覆蓋範圍。我們的業績和最近的公告證明了我們正在不斷取得進展。隨著我們繼續為越來越接受不確定性和越來越需要建議的客戶提供支持，隨著投資銀行活動的加速，我們已準備好搶佔市場份額。

Turning to Equity. Our franchise continues to deliver robust results with revenues of $3.7 billion, reflecting growth across products and regions. Volatility around changing trends and the eventual rebound in markets required clients to reposition, which drove heightened engagement globally. Prime brokerage revenues were especially strong, achieving a record.

轉向公平。我們的特許經營業務持續取得強勁業績，營收達 37 億美元，體現了各產品和各地區的成長。不斷變化的趨勢和最終的市場反彈要求客戶重新定位，從而推動全球參與度的提高。大宗經紀業務收入尤其強勁，創下新高。

Average client balances rose to all-time highs, driving the strength of the financing revenues. Cash results increased versus the last year on higher volumes across regions with strength in EMEA. Derivative results rose versus the previous year as the market -- excuse me, as the business actively supported clients, particularly around tariff-related market events, during the period.

平均客戶餘額升至歷史最高水平，推動了融資收入的強勁成長。由於各地區交易量增加（尤其是歐洲、中東和非洲地區交易量增加），現金業績較去年同期成長。衍生性商品業績較上年同期上升，因為市場—對不起，是因為該業務在此期間積極支持客戶，特別是在與關稅相關的市場事件期間。

Fixed Income revenues were $2.2 billion, driven by the strength in macro products. Macro results increased versus the prior year. The business benefited from an increase in client hedging, trending foreign exchange markets, shifting interest rate expectations and wider bid offer spreads, particularly early in the quarter. Micro results were solid.

固定收益收入為 22 億美元，受宏觀產品強勁推動。宏觀業績較上年有成長。該業務受益於客戶對沖的增加、外匯市場的趨勢、利率預期的變化以及買賣價差的擴大，尤其是在本季初。微觀結果很穩健。

Strength in secured lending revenues, which continue to grow on the back of higher balances, were partially offset by heightened volatility and widening credit spreads at the beginning of the quarter. Commodity results primarily reflected lower revenues in power and gas, and fewer structured trades compared to the previous period.

擔保貸款收入在餘額增加的推動下繼續增長，但本季初波動性加劇和信貸利差擴大部分抵消了這一增長。大宗商品業績主要反映電力和天然氣收入下降，以及與上一時期相比結構性交易減少。

Other revenues were $202 million. The comparison period benefited from higher net interest income and fees on corporate loans. Turning to ISG lending and provisions. In the quarter, ISG lending provisions were $168 million, driven by portfolio growth and a moderately weaker macroeconomic outlook. Net charge-offs were $19 million, primarily related to several commercial real estate loans, which were largely provisioned for in previous quarters.

其他收入為2.02億美元。比較期間受益於企業貸款淨利息收入和費用的增加。轉向 ISG 貸款和準備金。本季度，ISG 貸款準備金為 1.68 億美元，受投資組合成長和宏觀經濟前景略微疲軟的推動。淨沖銷金額為 1,900 萬美元，主要與幾筆商業房地產貸款有關，這些貸款大部分已在前幾季提列。

Turning to wealth management. The business delivered on key metrics. Strong net new assets, exceptional fee-based flows and healthy lending growth reinforced our differentiated wealth management franchise. Revenues were $7.8 billion, inclusive of $292 million of DCP. And the margin continued to expand, showcasing the inherent operating leverage of our scaled platform.

轉向財富管理。該業務實現了關鍵指標。強勁的淨新資產、卓越的收費流量和健康的貸款成長鞏固了我們差異化的財富管理業務。營收為 78 億美元，其中包括 2.92 億美元的 DCP。利潤率持續擴大，展現了我們規模化平台固有的營運槓桿。

Results reflect our investments focused on growth and our strong track record to help clients understand the value of advice. Moving to our business results in the second quarter. Pretax profit was a record at $2.2 billion, and the pretax margin was 28.3%. DCP negatively impacted the margin by approximately 70 basis points. Higher margin shows strength of our asset growth achieved by our investment-led strategy.

結果反映了我們對成長的投資以及我們良好的業績記錄，以幫助客戶了解建議的價值。轉向我們第二季的業務成果。稅前利潤創歷史新高，達到 22 億美元，稅前利潤率為 28.3%。DCP 對利潤率產生了約 70 個基點的負面影響。更高的利潤率表明我們透過投資主導策略實現了強勁的資產成長。

The underlying business progressed towards our long-term goal of 30%. Asset management revenues were $4.4 billion, up 11% versus the prior year, driven by higher market levels and the cumulative impact of consistently robust fee-based flows. In the quarter, fee-based flows were very strong at $43 billion, marking a record, excluding previous asset acquisitions.

基礎業務朝著我們 30% 的長期目標邁進。資產管理收入為 44 億美元，較上年增長 11%，這得益於更高的市場水平和持續強勁的收費流量的累積影響。本季度，費用型資金流表現強勁，達到 430 億美元，創歷史新高（不包括先前的資產收購）。

Clients continue to shift assets from adviser-led brokerage accounts to fee-based accounts, and we continue to invest in overall education, technology and product innovation to benefit clients and support ongoing asset migration. Fee-based assets now stand at $2.5 trillion. Net new assets in the quarter of $59 billion were inclusive of a $22 billion headwind from tax outflows and reflect growth across channels.

客戶繼續將資產從顧問主導的經紀帳戶轉移到收費帳戶，我們繼續投資於整體教育、技術和產品創新，以使客戶受益並支持持續的資產轉移。目前收費資產規模已達 2.5 兆美元。本季淨新增資產為 590 億美元，其中包括 220 億美元的稅收流出逆風，反映了各通路的成長。

Adviser-led flows were particularly strong, originating from new advisers who are attracted to the strength of the Workplace as well as assets that originated from Workplace. Transactional revenues were $1.3 billion. And excluding the impact of DCP, revenues increased 17% versus the last year. Retail engagement was especially strong in April as clients responded to elevated market volatility, and activity persisted with momentum at the end of the quarter.

顧問主導的資金流動尤其強勁，源自於被工作場所的實力以及源自工作場所的資產所吸引的新顧問。交易收入為13億美元。不計 DCP 的影響，營收較去年同期成長了 17%。由於客戶對市場波動加劇做出了反應，4 月份零售參與度尤其強勁，活動在本季末保持了強勁勢頭。

Bank lending balances increased sequentially to $169 billion, predominantly driven by growth in securities-based lending. Steady growth in lending shows our progress in deepening client relationships by offering portfolio solutions, addressing both sides of the clients' balance sheets. Household lending penetration grew across our adviser-led channel, with greater engagement from advisers and clients.

銀行貸款餘額季增至 1,690 億美元，主要受證券貸款成長的推動。貸款業務的穩定成長顯示我們透過提供組合解決方案、解決客戶資產負債表的兩方面問題，在深化客戶關係方面取得了進展。在我們顧問主導的管道中，家庭貸款滲透率不斷提高，顧問和客戶的參與度也不斷提高。

Total deposits increased to $383 billion. And net interest income of $1.9 billion was flat sequentially. These results reinforce continued stability in sweep balances. Throughout the quarter, clients steadily deployed cash into the market, indicating confidence in the forward look. As we look ahead to the third quarter, we would expect NII to remain around recent levels, subject to changes in the policy rate.

總存款增加至3,830億美元。淨利息收入為 19 億美元，與上一季持平。這些結果鞏固了清算餘額的持續穩定性。整個季度，客戶穩步向市場投入現金，顯示對未來充滿信心。展望第三季度，我們預計 NII 將維持在近期水準附近，但要受到政策利率變動的影響。

Along with $6.5 trillion of client assets, our second quarter performance demonstrates that our strategy is working, benefiting from years of sustained investment and consistent execution. Our scale positions us to continue to innovate and invest in a secularly growing market. Today we have 20 million individual relationships across our three channels.

加上 6.5 兆美元的客戶資產，我們第二季的業績表明我們的策略正在發揮作用，這得益於多年持續的投資和一貫的執行。我們的規模使我們能夠繼續創新並投資於長期成長的市場。如今，我們透過三個管道擁有 2000 萬個個人關係。

And the opportunity to deliver incremental advice and solutions across channels and our platform remains ahead of us. Turning to investment management. The business delivered strong results with revenues of $1.6 billion, increasing 12% year-over-year. Total AUM reached a record at $1.7 trillion. Our franchise generated positive long-term net flows of $11 billion, bringing year-to-date inflows to $16 billion.

我們仍然有機會透過管道和平台提供增量建議和解決方案。轉向投資管理。該業務業績強勁，營收達 16 億美元，年增 12%。總資產管理規模達到創紀錄的 1.7 兆美元。我們的特許經營權產生了 110 億美元的長期淨流入，使年初至今的流入量達到 160 億美元。

Strong organic growth is the product of leveraging our global distribution with a particular emphasis in fixed income. We are also continuing to see strong demand for Parametric customized portfolios, especially among our wealth management client base. Asset management and related fees were $1.4 billion, driven by higher average AUM across asset classes.

強勁的有機成長是我們利用全球分銷管道，特別是固定收益管道的結果。我們也持續看到對參數化客製化投資組合的強勁需求，尤其是在我們的財富管理客戶群中。資產管理及相關費用為 14 億美元，受各資產類別平均 AUM 增加的推動。

Performance-based income and other revenues were $118 million, largely driven by gains in infrastructure funds. Liquidity and overlay services had outflows of $27.3 billion, reflecting institutional outflows, partially related to deployment into markets and corporate CapEx. Overall, we are seeing the benefit of our investments and continued focus on global distribution capabilities.

基於績效的收入和其他收入為 1.18 億美元，主要受基礎設施基金收益的推動。流動性和覆蓋服務的流出量為 273 億美元，反映了機構流出，部分與部署到市場和企業資本支出有關。總體而言，我們看到了投資的收益，並持續關注全球分銷能力。

By leveraging the integrated firm, we are focused on our ability to generate sustainable growth in long-term flows and fee-based revenues. Turning to the balance sheet. Total spot assets increased $54 billion from the prior quarter to $1.4 trillion. Our standardized CET1 ratio stands at 15%. Standardized RWA's increased sequentially to $523 billion as we actively supported our clients.

透過利用綜合公司，我們專注於實現長期流量和收費收入的可持續成長。轉向資產負債表。現貨資產總額較上一季增加 540 億美元，達 1.4 兆美元。我們的標準化 CET1 比率為 15%。由於我們積極支持客戶，標準化 RWA 連續增加至 5,230 億美元。

Our stress test results reflect the durability of our business model and show consistent improvement in our results over the past five years. We announced a quarterly dividend increase of $0.075, bringing our quarterly dividend per share to $1. Our quarterly tax rate was 22.7%, reflecting our global mix and level of earnings. We expect a tax rate of approximately 24% in the second half of this year, consistent with our initial guidance.

我們的壓力測試結果反映了我們商業模式的持久性，並顯示我們的表現在過去五年中持續改善。我們宣布季度股息增加 0.075 美元，使每股季度股息達到 1 美元。我們的季度稅率為 22.7%，反映了我們的全球組合和獲利水準。我們預計今年下半年的稅率約為 24%，與我們最初的預期一致。

The second quarter results were strong. As we look ahead, we are entering the third quarter with momentum. Investment banking pipelines are healthy, dialogues are active, and markets have proven resilient. In Wealth and investment management we continue to gather assets with total client assets now reaching $8.2 trillion.

第二季業績強勁。展望未來，我們正以強勁的勢頭進入第三季。投資銀行通路健康，對話活躍，市場已證明具有彈性。在財富和投資管理方面，我們持續累積資產，目前客戶資產總額已達 8.2 兆美元。

With that, we will now open the line up to questions.

現在，我們將開始回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

（操作員指示）美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I had a question. I think in your prepared comments, you mentioned incremental return on capital. And as we think about whether this franchise -- you obviously have your targets out there. But when we think about this in the context of changes on the regulatory backdrop, the work you've done to integrate the franchise globally across businesses, how should we think about the incremental return on the capital?

我有一個問題。我認為在您準備好的評論中，您提到了增量資本回報率。當我們考慮這個特許經營權時——你顯然有你的目標。但是，當我們在監管背景變化的背景下考慮這一點時，您為在全球範圍內整合特許經營權所做的工作，我們應該如何看待資本的增量回報？

Could this be an even more profitable bank than what we have seen so far? Would love your thoughts around both in terms of what this franchise is capable of and what the regulatory environment may mean for future profitability.

這會不會是一家比我們目前所見的銀行更賺錢的銀行？我很想聽聽您對這個特許經營權的能力以及監管環境對未來盈利能力的影響的看法。

Well, I think that is the number one question, so it's great to have you open the call with that, because it's what we're much focused on, what the franchise can afford and what the environment can afford incrementally via regulatory reform and animal spirits synchronizing around the world. Those are both clearly tailwinds.

嗯，我認為這是首要問題，所以很高興您能以此作為開場白，因為這是我們最關注的，透過監管改革和全球同步的動物精神，特許經營權可以承受什麼，環境可以承受什麼。這顯然都是順風。

The business model, as we sit here, is generating earnings growth and incremental excess capital, which continues to grow our flexibility. We are, as we speak, deploying additional capital into the core businesses. So the organic development is happening and will continue to happen where we think there's operating leverage with smart risk architected deployment around clients.

正如我們所見，該商業模式正在產生獲利成長和增量過剩資本，這將繼續增強我們的靈活性。我們正在向核心業務投入更多資金。因此，有機發展正在發生，並將繼續發生，我們認為，透過圍繞客戶的智慧風險架構部署，可以實現營運槓桿。

Core examples of that would be in investment banking, we've got a world-class sales force, coverage universe that we continue to add to. We are deepening the footprint with corporates and clients through additional credit extension. And there is clearly more to do there around our relationship and event. And so investment banking is right at the top of the list, along with wealth, as we go into the next stage of the cycle.

核心例子是投資銀行業務，我們擁有世界一流的銷售隊伍，而且業務覆蓋範圍仍在擴大。我們正在透過額外的信貸發放來加深與企業和客戶的聯繫。顯然，圍繞著我們的關係和活動，我們還有很多事情要做。因此，隨著我們進入週期的下一階段，投資銀行業務與財富業務一起位居榜首。

Second is Wealth itself. I've called that out on the last number of calls with Sharon. There is more to do with these 20 million relationships that are growing every day, and in Workplace around broadening our lending capabilities in a prudent way. You see the tick up year-over-year. That is going to continue to happen as we supply clients with additional breadths and depths of products.

第二是財富本身。我在最近幾次與莎倫的通話中提到了這一點。我們還有很多事情要做，這 2000 萬個關係每天都在成長，在 Workplace 中，我們要以審慎的方式擴大我們的借貸能力。您會看到，這一數字逐年上升。隨著我們為客戶提供更具廣度和深度的產品，這種情況將會繼續發生。

And then third area that we are much focused on is the markets business, specifically financing businesses that are durable where we are well known to the client and vice versa, where we can act as a leader in places like prime brokerage and secured lending. So investment banking writ large, wealth management writ large and markets writ large. That covers a lot of the business where we can clearly put additional capital to work.

我們重點關注的第三個領域是市場業務，特別是持久的融資業務，我們為客戶所熟知，反之亦然，我們可以在主要經紀和擔保貸款等領域發揮領導作用。因此，從廣義上講，投資銀行、財富管理和市場都是如此。這涵蓋了許多我們可以明確投入額外資本的業務。

That is a process that has begun and it continues to intensify as we generate incremental capital with each passing quarter. Inside of that, there are inorganic opportunities that come by along the transom. And we are looking at them, of course. But the bar is super high. We have a record of integration that is a good one. But we have humility around what it takes to make integrations work.

這一進程已經開始，隨著我們每季產生增量資本，這一進程將繼續加強。在其中，存在著沿著橫樑而來的無機機會。當然，我們正在關注它們。但門檻非常高。我們的整合記錄非常好。但我們對如何使整合發揮作用保持謙遜的態度。

And so the bar with the management team is a high one. But we look at those integrations, those potential tuck-ins in the context of what the core strategy affords. Are they acquisitions that actually are near the bull's eye or better on the bull's eye, that would actually help grow the core strategy across wealth and investment management, and the investment bank such that we can continue to grow capacity that way?

因此，對管理團隊的要求很高。但我們是在核心策略能夠提供的背景下看待這些整合和潛在的整合。這些收購是否真的接近目標，或者更準確地說是達到了目標，是否真的有助於發展財富和投資管理以及投資銀行的核心策略，以便我們能夠繼續以這種方式擴大產能？

So you're hearing, Ebrahim, both organic and inorganic. But the specific answer to your question on the organic opportunity is that the first half affords an example of the operating leverage that the Firm is able to demonstrate where the environment has been murky. When the environment stabilizes a bit, we are one-pronged through the three-pronged administration effort.

所以，易卜拉欣，你聽到的是有機的和無機的。但對於您關於有機機會的問題，具體的答案是，上半年提供了公司在環境不明朗的情況下能夠展示的經營槓桿的一個例子。當環境稍微穩定下來的時候，我們就透過三管齊下的治理努力，一管齊下。

We would expect areas like the M&A business and underwriting business to pick up. And that will continue to afford us additional operating leverage. So we are contributing to that. The dividend is number one and will continue to be paramount. The cadence and the increase of the dividend dating back to when it was script all the way to now $1 a share and a 2.8% yield at current prices, is one that we will continue to put at the top of the list for its durability and something that our core investors have come to expect as a key signpost of the core strategy itself.

我們預計併購業務和承銷業務等領域將會回升。這將繼續為我們提供額外的營運槓桿。所以我們正在為此做出貢獻。股息是最重要的，並且將繼續是最重要的。股息的節奏和增長可以追溯到製定劇本時，一直到現在每股 1 美元，按當前價格計算的收益率為 2.8%，我們將繼續將其列為首位，因為它具有持久性，並且是我們的核心投資者所期望的，是核心戰略本身的關鍵標誌。

And then finally, the buyback, we are at a $4 billion pace per annum. That is obviously a lever that we will use tactically and accordingly. So that is some detail. But clearly, you're hearing that we're giving this quite a bit of thought because, as you rightly point out, we printed 15% CET1. We are at 13% with clearly indications that you see from the most recent that the numbers are going in our direction on the back of continued regulatory reform.

最後，我們以每年 40 億美元的速度進行回購。這顯然是我們將策略性地、相應使用的槓桿。這就是一些細節。但顯然，您聽到了我們對此進行了相當多的思考，因為正如您正確指出的那樣，我們列印了 15% 的 CET1。目前我們的支持率為 13%，從最近的數據中可以清楚地看到，在持續監管改革的推動下，數字正朝著有利於我們的方向發展。

So that kind of buffer, we should be thinking about this and taking steps, and we are as we speak.

因此，我們應該考慮這種緩衝並採取措施，我們現在正在這樣做。

That was very comprehensive. One quick follow-up. I think both Sharon and you implied there's a higher tolerance across boardrooms for the macro volatility. We are seeing some pickup in rhetoric around tariffs. Do you think this is different than what we saw in March and April where there's a huge hit to corporate sentiment around deal activity that is unlikely or less likely to happen on a go-forward?

那非常全面。一次快速跟進。我認為莎倫和您都暗示董事會對宏觀波動的容忍度更高。我們看到有關關稅的言論有所增多。您認為這與我們在 3 月和 4 月看到的情況有什麼不同嗎？當時，企業對不太可能或不太可能發生的交易活動的信心受到了巨大打擊？

My sense in recent weeks is that if the, just to use the word cadence again, if the cadence of tariff policy execution is such that it is viewed to be sort of within broadly expected parameters, and obviously, the part of the negotiation is for the administration to optimize results. But if there's a sense that it is within sort of bands of outcome and that the negotiation will take a certain amount of time as appropriate, but it's sort of quantifiable, that is clearly going to be a catalyst for further clearing of uncertainty.

最近幾週我的感覺是，如果再次使用節奏這個詞，如果關稅政策執行的節奏被視為在廣泛預期的參數範圍內，那麼顯然，談判的一部分就是讓政府優化結果。但如果人們感覺到結果在某種範圍內，談判將花費適當的時間，但又是可以量化的，那麼這顯然將成為進一步消除不確定性的催化劑。

What is interesting in the last month has been that the strategic activity has really started to pick up. And in fact, the strongest sponsors of the group because, as you know, sponsor activity has consolidated to the winners, they are also actually quite aggressive on the acquisition front. So we are seeing real interest on the buy side from the both corporates and strategics and clearly fact that an IPO market on the back end is working means that the value chain seems to be in pretty good shape.

有趣的是，上個月的策略活動確實開始回升。事實上，正如你所知，該集團最強大的贊助商，因為贊助商活動已經鞏固了贏家的地位，他們在收購方面實際上也相當積極。因此，我們看到企業和策略投資者對買方表現出了真正的興趣，而後端 IPO 市場正在運作，這顯然意味著價值鏈似乎處於良好狀態。

So I think that if we continue along into the fall with what we saw in the last month, it should be a quite strong second half going to '26.

因此我認為，如果我們延續上個月看到的情況，那麼下半年到 26 年的業績將會相當強勁。

Dan Fannon, Jefferies.

丹‧範農 (Dan Fannon)，傑富瑞集團。

Ted, I wanted to follow up on your previous comments just around inorganic. It sounds like that these would be more tuck-in or complementary type of deals if they were to happen. But if you could talk to maybe financial or strategic factors that would take you to over the threshold to get to completing a transaction, that would be helpful.

泰德，我想跟進一下你之前關於無機的評論。聽起來，如果這些交易真的發生的話，將會是更多的附加或互補類型的交易。但如果您可以談論財務或策略因素，這些因素可能會幫助您跨越門檻完成交易，那將會很有幫助。

It has to fit squarely within the strategy to raise, manage and allocate capital for clients. We have a record of integration. But we are not looking to make acquisitions just for the sake of it. The opportunity set within Morgan Stanley proper is extraordinary. As you look across wealth management, the entire funnel is showing growth up and down even at this stage of uncertainty.

它必須完全符合為客戶籌集、管理和分配資本的策略。我們有整合的記錄。但我們不是為了收購而收購。摩根士丹利本身所蘊含的機會是非凡的。縱觀財富管理，即使在這個不確定的階段，整個管道仍呈現上下成長的趨勢。

We're seeing inflows and growth in investment management across multiple pieces. We're just getting going on the growth of parametric in investment management and full opportunity that underlies E*Trade and wealth management. And the investment banking franchise is a world-class franchise that, after more than a dozen years of financial repression, is now actually able to go out and do its thing.

我們看到多個領域的投資管理資金流入和成長。我們剛開始實現投資管理參數化的成長以及 E*Trade 和財富管理所蘊含的全部機會。投資銀行業務是世界級的特許經營業務，在經歷了十多年的金融壓制之後，現在終於可以開展業務了。

This has been a franchise that we have nurtured as a global business. We're one of only a very small number, as you know, that are running global businesses. And the ability to execute complex, cross-border, strategic transactions is now right in front of us. So the organic opportunity set is enormous. If there are tuck-ins, which we see many come through, that can actually add to the operating leverage, to the plant without actually distracting us from the opportunity set in front of us, sure, we're looking at them. But the name of the game is to just continue to prosecute against the strategy deck that you saw. We are marching our way durably. Obviously, asset prices can move around. But $10 trillion, we're on our way. You see the margins in wealth. They're now in the high 20s. You see that the efficiency ratio for the first half was 70%.

這是我們作為全球性企業精心培育的特許經營權。如您所知，我們是極少數經營全球業務的公司之一。而執行複雜、跨國、策略交易的能力現在就在我們面前。因此，有機機會是巨大的。如果有增值措施（我們看到很多人都這樣做），這些措施實際上可以增加工廠的經營槓桿，而不會分散我們對面前機會的注意力，當然，我們正在關注它們。但遊戲的名稱只是繼續起訴你所看到的策略平台。我們正堅定地前進。顯然，資產價格是可以變動的。但 10 兆美元，我們已經在路上了。你看到了財富的差距。他們現在都 20 多歲了。你看上半年的效率比率是70%。

And you see that we're durably very judiciously growing share across the investment bank. That is what we set out to do. And we intend to just stick to our knitting and get that right and generate real returns and incremental capital for our shareholders.

您會發現，我們正在持續、明智地擴大投資銀行的份額。這就是我們要做的事情。我們打算堅持我們的主業，做好這項工作，為股東創造真正的回報和增量資本。

Great. That's helpful. And then Sharon, can you expand upon your comments around NNA? You highlighted new adviser strength, but maybe talk about flows more broadly. And then also just the characterization of the recruiting backdrop today for new advisers joining the platform.

偉大的。這很有幫助。那麼莎倫，你能詳細談談你對 NNA 的評論嗎？您強調了新顧問的實力，但也許可以更廣泛地談論流程。然後也只是對今天加入該平台的新顧問的招募背景進行描述。

Sure. Why don't we take it step by step? So just recruiting generally, I'll take it from the bottom, is it's obviously a great platform. We have recruits that are interested in what we've been investing in. So that's been great to see. We talked about it in the last call. I think for NNA, which is really wonderful, is to see that we have strength in all three channels. It's not just one channel.

當然。我們為什麼不一步一步來呢？所以就一般的招聘而言，我會從底部開始，這顯然是一個很棒的平台。我們招募了一些對我們所投資的東西感興趣的人才。看到這一點真是太好了。我們在上次通話中討論過這個問題。我認為對於 NNA 來說，這真的很棒，因為我們在三個管道上都擁有實力。不只是一個管道。

From the adviser-led side, we do have recruiting, but we also have flows coming in from Workplace. So I've given these numbers before, but you start from a Workplace perspective. And we have new flows that generate from Workplace that are going into the adviser-led channel. And then those are actually also becoming fee-based flows.

從顧問主導的方面來看，我們確實有招聘，但我們也有來自 Workplace 的流量。我之前已經給過這些數字，但是是從工作場所的角度開始的。我們有來自 Workplace 的新流量，這些流量正進入顧問主導的管道。然後這些實際上也變成了基於費用的流動。

So we're seeing that increase of the net new assets are really coming in originating from the Workplace. And then we have the new flows that transfer, have both the existing flows but 70% of the flows that come from Workplace that originate from Workplace is actually net new assets firm. So that's an incredible number when you think about the net new assets and how they're generating from what we intended to see in the investments in Workplace.

因此，我們看到淨新資產的成長實際上源自於工作場所。然後，我們有了轉移的新流量，既有現有的流量，但來自 Workplace 的流量中有 70% 實際上是公司的淨新資產。因此，當您考慮淨新資產以及它們如何從我們希望在工作場所投資中看到的收益中產生時，這是一個令人難以置信的數字。

We were looking at -- I'm just -- step back not just on NNA, just so that you do have these numbers. We used to say we had about $60 billion per year that we're originating from Workplace. This year, we're running ahead of those numbers. It just shows you the strength of all of the channels. So adviser-led is coming both from existing advisers as well as recruits and the origination of Workplace.

我們正在研究——我只是——不僅僅是在 NNA 上退一步，這樣你才能得到這些數字。我們曾經說過，我們每年從 Workplace 獲得的收入約為 600 億美元。今年，我們將超越這些數字。它只是向您展示所有管道的實力。因此，顧問主導的模式既包括現有的顧問，也包括新招募的顧問和 Workplace 的發起者。

And then self-directed, we should talk a little bit about E*TRADE, we're seeing really great flows from the self-directed channel year-over-year improvement there. That comes from investments in marketing and business development. We've put in new tools like E*TRADE Pro. You're seeing all of that marketing pay off across the channels.

然後是自主導向，我們應該稍微談論一下 E*TRADE，我們看到自主導向管道的流量逐年改善，確實很棒。這是來自對行銷和業務發展的投資。我們引入了 E*TRADE Pro 等新工具。您將看到所有這些行銷活動在各個管道都獲得了回報。

And I think that understanding that this is all happening against the backdrop of a tax season is encouraging. And then the fee-based flows, which you didn't ask about, but I'll just touch on, is also -- are very, very strong, just underscoring how well the funnel is working.

我認為，了解到這一切都是在納稅季節的背景下發生的，而且是令人鼓舞的。然後，您沒有問到收費流程，但我只想提一下，它也非常非常強勁，只是強調了漏斗運作得有多好。

Devin Ryan, Citizens Bank.

德文·瑞安（Devin Ryan），公民銀行。

I have a question on stablecoins and kind of the broader theme of tokenization. Obviously, stable coin legislation likely to pass probably in short order here. You have market structure legislation that's probably not too far behind. So just love to hear about how you're thinking about the opportunity for Morgan Stanley. Is this something that you think could be big or is it just kind of an evolution of market structure? And then are there any specific areas that you're focused on as we get more regulatory clarity?

我對穩定幣以及代幣化的更廣泛主題有疑問。顯然，穩定幣立法很可能很快就會通過。你們的市場結構立法可能不會落後太多。所以我很想聽聽您對摩根士丹利的機會的看法。您認為這會產生重大影響嗎？或者這只是市場結構的一種演變？那麼，隨著監管變得更加明確，您是否會關注哪些特定領域？

Yes, sure. I'm happy to take that. As you would expect, we're actively discussing it. We're looking both at the landscape and the uses and the potential uses for our own client base. But it really is a little early to tell, especially for the businesses that we run versus businesses, that you might see from competitors on how stable coin would necessarily play in.

是的，當然。我很高興接受這個。正如您所期望的，我們正在積極討論此事。我們正在研究前景、用途以及針對我們自己的客戶群的潛在用途。但現在下結論還為時過早，特別是對於我們經營的企業而言，與競爭對手的企業相比，穩定幣將如何發揮作用。

But we're very, very close to the landscape, we're understanding this, as well as the evolution across all technological advancements. AI, crypto, you name it, all of them sort of have an ecosystem that we're very focused on.

但我們非常非常接近這一景觀，我們正在了解這一點，以及所有技術進步的演變。人工智慧、加密技術等等，它們都有一個我們非常關注的生態系統。

Okay. Great. And then just a follow-up on the trading environment. Obviously, second quarter, there's a lot going on between tariffs and geopolitical. So it's a bit hard to gauge how much maybe activity was elevated relative to repositioning for institutions compared to maybe a more normal second quarter. So just love to hear about how the market backdrop is evolving.

好的。偉大的。然後只是對交易環境的後續關注。顯然，第二季度，關稅和地緣政治之間發生了很多事情。因此，與更正常的第二季相比，很難判斷機構重新定位活動可能增加了多少。所以我很想聽聽市場背景是如何演變的。

Sharon, I heard comments about markets have been resilient in the third quarter thus far. So I'm not sure if that was reference to trading. But just a little bit of flavor around the market backdrop? And then if you can weave in as well, just some of the efforts you are taking to kind of improve market share, obviously doing more on prime brokerage as well. So I'd love to just kind of weave that in as well for the question.

莎倫，我聽到關於市場在第三季迄今為止一直保持彈性的評論。所以我不確定這是否是指交易。但只是圍繞著市場背景有一點味道嗎？然後，如果您能融入其中，那麼您為提高市場份額所做的一些努力顯然也會在主要經紀業務上做得更多。因此，我也很樂意就這個問題進行探討。

Sure. Why don't I take it, again, I'll take the bottom question first just in terms of improvement of market share? We have been actively investing in the global franchise. And that global nature is one that you can see bearing out in the results. I called out specifically even in equities record coming from EMEA. There have been previous quarters we've talked a lot about Asia.

當然。我為什麼不回答這個問題呢？我先回答最下面的問題，就市佔率的提高而言？我們一直在積極投資全球特許經營。您可以從結果中看到這種全球性。我甚至在來自歐洲、中東和非洲地區的股票記錄中也特別指出。前幾季我們討論過很多有關亞洲的話題。

And when we talk about Asia, you speak about it as one region, but there are multiple that are involved in that. And the relationships that we have with MUFG, what we're doing in India, Greater China, all of that becomes relevant. And that is what we think of when we talk about moats around the business, just where we continue to invest and see a lot of improvements in results and an ability to gain durable share.

當我們談論亞洲時，您將其作為一個地區來談論，但其中涉及多個地區。我們與三菱日聯金融集團的關係，以及我們在印度和大中華區的業務，都變得至關重要。這就是我們在談論業務護城河時想到的，我們繼續投資並看到結果的巨大改善和獲得持久份額的能力。

In terms of client repositioning and momentum, it was not just specific to the institutional business. The retail business was extremely strong as well. I spoke about it on the April call about seeing resilience from retail engagement and a continuation of a buy the dip mentality even through the tariffs. You'll probably remember that. And so that continued throughout the course of the quarter.

就客戶重新定位和發展勢頭而言，它不僅僅針對機構業務。零售業務也非常強勁。我在四月的電話會議上談到了這一點，即看到零售參與的韌性以及即使在關稅期間仍繼續買入逢低的心態。您可能還記得這一點。這種情況在整個季度持續發生。

It wasn't specific just to April. You saw inflows to markets from sweeps, et cetera, across the entire course of the quarter. And I even mentioned it in the liquidity flows. When you think about liquidity in IM and where those outflows went. They went into market. They went into CapEx exposure. So the repositioning and the rebalancing is on the institutional side throughout the quarter, across the equities businesses, across the retail businesses and across the IM business. And we're there to capture all of that.

這並非只針對四月。在整個季度中，您會看到資金從清算等管道流入市場。我甚至在流動性流動中提到了這一點。當您考慮 IM 中的流動性以及這些流出的去向。他們走進了市場。他們進入了資本支出領域。因此，整個季度的重新定位和重新平衡都是在機構方面進行的，涵蓋股票業務、零售業務和 IM 業務。我們在那裡捕捉這一切。

Yes. What I would add to that is, in the case of equities, we've talked for many years about what it takes to run a global, fully laid out equities business, the old nine boxes where you have prime brokerage, derivatives and, importantly, cash and then the three regions. And the cost to run that business, just dollars in the ground to turn on the lights every year, those costs, as you know, have only gone up.

是的。我想補充的是，就股票而言，我們多年來一直在討論如何經營一個全球性的、佈局全面的股票業務，即舊的九大框架，其中包括大宗經紀、衍生品，以及重要的現金，然後是三個區域。而經營這項業務的成本，僅僅是每年在地裡開燈的費用，這些成本，正如你所知，只會上升。

And so not surprisingly, the top of the competitive heap is able to inure operating leverage and above-market returns and the rest have to slug it out just to sort of make the nut. What is remarkable about this year or worthy of calling out, and Sharon made reference to it, is this quarter in Europe, we had a record quarter in equities.

因此毫不奇怪，競爭最激烈的企業能夠獲得經營槓桿和高於市場的回報，而其餘企業則必須拼盡全力才能獲得成功。今年最引人注目或值得一提的是，正如莎倫所提到的，本季歐洲股市創下了歷史新高。

In the first half, we've had a quite extraordinary half in Asia, which is obviously Hong Kong and Tokyo lead. So it's not just about the electronification of the product and the span of the product palette, but it's also the ability to run the business globally. I'd also just touch on fixed income, not so many years ago. We were talking about trying to get to $1 billion a quarter.

上半場，我們在亞洲的表現相當出色，顯然香港和東京領先。因此，這不僅涉及產品的電子化和產品系列的跨度，還涉及全球經營業務的能力。幾年前，我還只是談到固定收益。我們正在討論嘗試達到每季 10 億美元的目標。

And now fixed income has quietly put up $2 billion a quarter through every imaginable kind of environment for a whole bunch of quarters. So part of the strategy here is to not only generate operating leverage, but to impute durability in the results that actually are in line with how we want the strategy to be presented around clients.

現在，固定收益已在各種可以想像的環境下，連續多個季度悄悄增加了每季 20 億美元。因此，這裡的策略的一部分不僅是產生經營槓桿，而且還要推算結果的持久性，這實際上與我們希望向客戶展示的策略方式一致。

The last piece to this, which is absolutely critical, is this idea of the integrated firm where, as appropriate, we are knitting clients across the plant, across the world together, whether it's in getting them access to capital, to ideas, financing, strategy, the whole thing. And that is most dependent on a culture at the very top of the house where the capital, to the earlier question, that is deployed and the resourcing that we add on is good for the franchise as a whole as opposed to nurturing just one particular division.

最後一點，也是絕對關鍵的一點，就是綜合性公司的理念，在適當的情況下，我們會將工廠各處、世界各地的客戶聯繫在一起，無論是讓他們獲得資本、創意、融資、戰略，還是所有的一切。而這最依賴公司最高層的文化，在這種文化中，對於先前的問題，所部署的資本和我們添加的資源對整個特許經營有利，而不是僅僅培育一個特定的部門。

And that is obviously something that is years in the making. And we think will prove to be a real competitive advantage as we flex some of that incremental capital.

這顯然是經過多年籌備的事。我們認為，隨著我們靈活運用部分增量資本，這將被證明是真正的競爭優勢。

Glenn Schorr, Evercore.

格倫·肖爾（Glenn Schorr），Evercore。

Just a follow-up on that, Ted. I appreciate all the comments you made to the first question. I was curious a little bit about why asset management is not included in that potential deployment of capital being that you're already great and hopefully getting greater in wealth management. Same kind of comment across banking and trading.

這只是對此的一個後續問題，泰德。我感謝您對第一個問題提出的所有評論。我有點好奇，為什麼資產管理不包括在潛在的資本部署中，因為你已經很優秀了，並且希望在財富管理方面做得更好。銀行業和貿易業也有同樣的評論。

And I felt like from a total dollars of capital, you could probably do the most help in terms of the asset management franchise. And maybe just put that in the wrapper of how you think about balancing capital deployment and making sure asset and wealth are still the big primary identities of driving the stock and the returns. So it's basically a balancing the mix of businesses, if you will.

我覺得從總資本來看，你可能在資產管理特許經營方面提供最大的幫助。或許只是把它放在如何平衡資本配置的範疇內，並確保資產和財富仍然是推動股票和回報的主要因素。因此，如果你願意的話，這基本上就是平衡業務組合。

Yes, it's actually a good pick up there. That wasn't intentional. In fact, the investment management numbers this quarter, as you know, were really quite outstanding with $11 billion of inflows and then the continued growth of Parametric. I think it's fair to say that the opportunities across investment management, which is your question, Glenn, on sort of a stand-alone basis, given the fragmentation of the industry and given how some folks are doing a lot better than others, there are many, many acquisition opportunities in the asset management space, as you are well aware.

是的，這確實是一個不錯的選擇。那不是故意的。事實上，如您所知，本季的投資管理數據確實非常出色，流入資金達 110 億美元，而 Parametric 持續成長。格倫，我認為可以公平地說，投資管理領域的機會，這是您提出的問題，從某種獨立的角度來看，考慮到行業的分散性，以及一些人的表現比其他人好得多，資產管理領域有很多收購機會，正如您所知。

We are being very careful about that. To the extent we can add an Eaton Vance before people have figured out what parametric is all about, or we can make an acquisition of Solium before people understand that, that is the linchpin to Workplace, if we can add E*TRADE as filling out the funnel, I think part of the thinking is to not only imagine what the asset is worth in and of itself.

我們對此非常小心。在某種程度上，我們可以在人們弄清楚參數化的含義之前添加 Eaton Vance，或者我們可以在人們理解這一點之前收購 Solium，這是 Workplace 的關鍵，如果我們可以添加 E*TRADE 來填充漏斗，我認為部分思考不僅僅是想像資產本身的價值。

But what the platform effect to the core strategy is from being inside the wealth funnel or being inside the investment management universe. And I think you know well that investment management roll-ups have had very mixed experience. So to the extent that we can bring in a strategy or bring in a business that fits with Morgan Stanley culture, that fits with our client perspective and can afford us incremental operating leverage, well, sure, that would absolutely check a whole bunch of boxes, it could give us incremental margin, clearly additional AUM.

但平台對核心策略的影響來自於財富漏斗內部或投資管理領域內部。我想您很清楚，投資管理整合的經驗非常複雜。因此，如果我們能夠引入符合摩根士丹利文化的策略或業務，符合我們客戶的視角，並能為我們提供增量營運槓桿，那麼，當然，這絕對會滿足很多條件，它可以為我們提供增量利潤，顯然是額外的 AUM。

But I am much focused, Glenn, on folks hearing that, first and foremost, we're really focused on what is in front of us in our operating and management committee and leadership meetings around the firm every day. Because there is a ton of demand for incremental capital, incremental resources that is coming straight from clients through our people to us.

但是，格倫，我非常關注的是讓人們聽到，首先，我們真正關注的是每天在公司營運和管理委員會和領導會議上所面臨的問題。因為對增量資本、增量資源的需求很大，這些需求直接來自客戶，透過我們的員工傳遞給我們。

So the nurturing of what we have in the core strategy of raise, manage and allocate capital to clients affords us a heck of a lot of runway. But you're right, there are investment management strategies and opportunities. Some of them are very clear and some of them may be more hidden gems, like a Solium, which I thought was ingenious, that can be brought in to actually help transform where the firm is going to go with clients.

因此，我們在為客戶籌集、管理和分配資本的核心策略方面的培育為我們提供了巨大的發展空間。但你說得對，確實有投資管理策略和機會。其中一些非常清晰，而另一些可能是更隱藏的寶石，例如 Solium，我認為它非常巧妙，可以真正幫助公司改變與客戶的關係。

I appreciate that. Sharon, if I could ask a quick follow-up on your comment around NII, around steady in the current rate backdrop. There's like five or so rate cuts expected through now through the end of next year. You have offsets, your business probably does well if rates are going down. But can you talk about the NII in a forward curve setting or however else we should think about the balancing of lower rates?

我很感激。莎倫，我能否就你關於 NII 的評論做一個快速的跟進，在當前利率背景下保持穩定。從現在到明年年底，預計會有五次左右的降息。你有補償，如果利率下降，你的生意可能會做得很好。但是，您能否在遠期曲線設定中談論 NII，或者我們應該如何考慮平衡較低的利率？

Sure. I won't give a specific guidance as you probably expect, Glenn, as it relates to next year. But I will highlight to you that, if you use the word offsets, yes. Generally speaking, in a lower rate environment, we see inflows, right, of sweeps. I think that there are places that you can certainly better understand where we are today.

當然。格倫，正如你可能預料的那樣，由於這與明年有關，我不會給出具體的指導。但我要向你強調的是，如果你使用「抵消」這個詞，那麼是的。一般來說，在較低利率環境下，我們會看到資金流入。我認為有些地方你肯定能更好地理解我們今天所處的位置。

And we look ahead, I've stated that we're in a similar range, largely because we haven't really seen sweeps move, and you're in a position where there are stable rates. But what you will also gain over time is the increases from lending balances, which is why I've paid -- I spent a lot of time talking about that in the prepared remarks because, in my mind, that's an incredible forward-looking indicator for just the strength of the business and how we've seen an increase in household penetration from a lending perspective.

展望未來，我已經說過，我們處於相似的範圍內，主要是因為我們還沒有真正看到掃描移動，而且你處於利率穩定的位置。但隨著時間的推移，你還會獲得貸款餘額的增加，這就是我付出的原因——我花了很多時間在準備好的發言中談論這一點，因為在我看來，這是一個令人難以置信的前瞻性指標，它不僅能體現業務實力，還能體現我們從貸款角度看到的家庭滲透率的提高。

So more and more of those advisers and users are thinking about our lending products on the wealth management side. As it will play out specifically from an interest rate perspective and sweeps, those will be likely factors that will be driven by the policy rate. But yes, generally speaking, when rates do go down, we generally see sweeps balances broadly go up.

因此，越來越多的顧問和用戶開始考慮我們的財富管理貸款產品。由於它將從利率角度和範圍具體發揮作用，因此這些可能是受政策利率驅動的因素。但是，是的，一般來說，當利率下降時，我們通常會看到清掃餘額大幅上升。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥克·梅奧。

I just want to ask about a trend of more lending through the capital markets division. So in other words, Ted, you talked about the moment or wow on your last presentation. That was memorable to me. But I think one wow to me is just to the extent that banks used to lend directly to the commercial customers, and now they're lending more to nonbank financial firms than directly of any of those traditional commercial customers.

我只是想問一下透過資本市場部門增加貸款的趨勢。換句話說，泰德，你談論了上次演講中的精彩時刻或令人驚嘆的時刻。這讓我難忘。但我認為令我驚訝的是，銀行過去直接向商業客戶提供貸款，而現在他們向非銀行金融公司提供的貸款比直接向任何傳統商業客戶提供的貸款還要多。

So my question is, how do you see that trend, where it's been, where it's going? And how much lending do you do through your capital markets business as a percentage of the whole? Because it's all kind of jumbled together and those of us on the outside have a tough time quantifying that.

所以我的問題是，您如何看待這種趨勢，它過去是怎樣的，將來會怎麼樣？您透過資本市場業務進行的貸款佔整體貸款的百分比是多少？因為一切都混雜在一起，我們局外人很難量化這一點。

That's an interesting one, Mike. I do think you're touching on -- we have to see how the regulatory environment plays out, but I think we sort of sense that the 15-year dam is breaking and that reform is in the offing. We've seen indications of that in SLR, as you know, and recent strong results from the group in this recent CCAR exam.

這很有趣，麥克。我確實認為你提到了——我們必須看看監管環境如何發揮作用，但我認為我們有點感覺到 15 年的大壩正在崩潰，改革即將到來。如您所知，我們已經在 SLR 中看到了這種跡象，而該小組在最近的 CCAR 考試中取得了優異的成績。

I do think that some of the share that we ceded as an industry group at the top, the big banks writ large, the six of us, that, in part, was a function of regulatory limitation broadly. And that regulatory limitation may well be normalizing. And that will not so much dollar for dollar take share back from the private lending group, because I think the private credit product has found its place. It is institutionalized.

我確實認為，我們作為行業頂尖集團（大銀行，我們六家）所放棄的部分份額，在某種程度上是監管限制的結果。這種監管限制很可能正在正常化。但這不會從私人借貸集團手中奪回太多份額，因為我認為私人信貸產品已經找到了自己的位置。它已製度化。

As you know, it's $2 trillion and growing. But I think the ability for the highly capitalized, global investment banks, especially if they have something special along with it, in our case, as you know, world-class wealth and investment management businesses, we'll be able to get back after that core share around corporate product.

正如你們所知，這個數字已經達到 2 兆美元並且還在不斷增長。但我認為，對於資本雄厚的全球投資銀行來說，特別是如果它們擁有一些特殊的東西，就我們的情況而言，正如你所知，我們擁有世界一流的財富和投資管理業務，我們將能夠收回企業產品的核心份額。

In the mid-cap space, with corporate derivatives, to unsecured, but high-quality borrowers where perhaps we've been competed out to be more soup-to-nuts on acquisitions and complex events. There will still be a role for others to continue to flourish in the boutique space. The winners will continue to be winners. And there will be clearly a role for the sponsor community to do its thing.

在中型股領域，透過公司衍生性商品，向無擔保但高品質的借款人提供貸款，我們可能已經在收購和複雜事件方面展開了更全面的競爭。精品店領域仍有發展空間，其他企業也將持續蓬勃發展。勝利者將繼續是勝利者。贊助商團體顯然將發揮其應有的作用。

But I think the, I don't want to say, the balkanization, of some of our core activities, inside of the securities business and corporate investment bank amongst the big group. I think you may begin to see, and you've indicated this, the tide may begin to shift where we can begin to again play a more central role in the governing, the stewardship of the corporate and sponsor capital markets acting as a financier, as structure and of course, as appropriate, as the distribution and allocation engine.

但我認為，我不想說，我們的一些核心活動，包括大集團內部的證券業務和企業投資銀行業務，正在分裂。我想您可能開始明白，並且您已經指出了這一點，潮流可能開始轉變，我們可以再次在治理中發揮更核心的作用，在企業和發起人資本市場的管理中充當金融家、結構，當然，在適當的情況下，充當分配和配置引擎。

So I think we've got, of course, that back end in a special way. I think the front end has been splintered because there have been limitations that have been brought to the group. There's so much they can do. But I think it is clear, and this ties to the earlier answer with respect to organic or inorganic, any kind of normalization of the regulatory environment is going to afford the largest and most well-capitalized and global firms a lot of running room to prosecute core lending product with sophisticated clients.

所以我認為我們當然以一種特殊的方式獲得了後端。我認為前端已經分裂，因為為該組帶來了一些限制。他們可以做的事情太多了。但我認為很明顯，這與先前關於有機或無機的答案相關，任何形式的監管環境的正常化都將為規模最大、資本最雄厚和全球性的公司提供很大的運行空間，以便向成熟客戶提供核心貸款產品。

The largest, most sophisticated, highest net worth individuals are walking institutions. We have folks that are in the ecosystem who act as competitors, clients, frenemies, but they can also get incremental capacity from us. And our intention, I think, would be to be competing for additional depth with those key top ecosystem players where we don't have to worry as much about hitting a limit that is sort of preordained from notional limits that were prescribed a decade plus ago.

規模最大、最老練、淨資產最高的個人就是行走的機構。我們的生態系統中既有競爭對手，也有客戶，還有敵人，但他們也可以從我們這裡獲得增量能力。我認為，我們的目的是與那些關鍵的頂級生態系統參與者競爭額外的深度，這樣我們就不必擔心達到十多年前規定的概念限制所預先確定的限制。

I think it's an evolving process. We want to do that prudently. We are well aware of bouts of volatility. We're aware of sort of risk architecture. So we're in no rush to do that, which is why we are so focused on the cadence of earnings. There's a sense of consistency in who we're lending to, how we're growing the product, how we're delivering on deposits. It's all part of sort of the broader mosaic of getting to 20% returns on tangible on an ongoing basis.

我認為這是一個不斷發展的過程。我們希望謹慎地做這件事。我們非常清楚波動的發生。我們意識到了這種風險架構。因此我們並不急於這樣做，這也是我們如此關注獲利節奏的原因。我們的貸款對象、產品成長方式、存款兌現方式都保持一致。這一切都是持續獲得 20% 有形資產回報的更廣泛目標的一部分。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

Just two follow-up questions. First, for you, Ted, on all the inorganic opportunity. When investors see your returns, they say, oh, how does an optimized seeming business continue to optimize itself? And as I heard you talk about inorganic. I was wondering where deposits would play into your priority. I know that you have less than 10% of trading assets in the bank sub, and some of your peers have 30% to 60%. I'm wondering sort of where that would fall on your priority list.

僅剩兩個後續問題。首先，泰德，向你介紹所有無機機會。當投資者看到你的回報時，他們會說，哦，一個看似優化的業務如何繼續自我優化？正如我聽到您談論無機物一樣。我想知道存款在您的優先考慮中扮演什麼角色。我知道你們在銀行子公司的交易資產不到10%，而你們的一些同業有30%到60%。我想知道這在您的優先清單中處於什麼位置。

I'll give Sharon this one. Go ahead.

我要把這個給莎倫。前進。

Sure. So Erica, I think it's a really great point. And I think it's something we've been very focused, as you know, and I know you've written a lot about, the usage of the bank. The bank is clearly a priority for us. We put it into the strategic objectives purposefully to really talk about the fact that we see more potential growth as we think about eligibility.

當然。所以艾莉卡，我認為這是一個非常好的觀點。我認為這是我們一直非常關注的事情，正如您所知，而且我知道您已經寫了很多有關銀行使用情況的文章。顯然，銀行是我們的首要任務。我們特意將其納入戰略目標，以真正說明我們在考慮資格時看到了更多的潛在成長。

You obviously do need both sides of that balance sheet. For us in terms of deposits, we have grown and continue to grow and diversify our deposit base, which will allow us to support ongoing growth of eligible assets that we could put on the bank. And so this is a strategic objective. I think that it is something that we see real potential for as we move forward.

顯然，你確實需要資產負債表的兩面。就我們的存款而言，我們已經並將繼續擴大和多樣化我們的存款基礎，這將使我們能夠支持銀行合格資產的持續成長。所以這是一個戰略目標。我認為，隨著我們不斷前進，它具有真正的潛力。

And it will take time to really make sure that we do it the right way, with the right infrastructure. But what you've certainly seen is that over the course of the last 10 years, we have put a lot of investment into the bank products, into what we have to make ourselves a real bank that has the ability to service both sides of that balance sheet.

我們需要時間來真正確保以正確的方式、採用正確的基礎設施來做到這一點。但您肯定已經看到，在過去的十年中，我們在銀行產品上投入了大量的投資，使我們成為一家真正的銀行，能夠為資產負債表的兩邊提供服務。

And let me take the first half of your question, which is on the back of what Sharon just said. There shouldn't be a conflation around having a strategy that is clear and consistent and well-understood and a sense that we have no more runway on that strategy. The runway on that strategy is just effectively a byproduct of addressing enormous TAMs with large barriers to entry.

讓我來回答你問題的前半部分，這與莎倫剛才所說的有關。我們不應該混淆兩種觀點：一是擁有清晰、一致且易於理解的策略，二是感覺我們在該戰略上已經沒有發展空間。該戰略的跑道實際上只是解決具有高進入障礙的巨大 TAM 的副產品。

On the one hand, you have a $6 trillion world-class wealth management business, but the current TAM is at least $60 trillion. So we're the leader, but we only have a 10% share. In the investment bank, we are a global leader, we have 15% share. Both of those businesses, as you know, are secular growers. In the investment management business, we are working a way to grow our real assets business, our private credit businesses, our liquidity businesses.

一方面，你擁有價值 6 兆美元的世界級財富管理業務，但目前的 TAM 至少有 60 兆美元。因此，我們是領導者，但我們只佔有 10% 的份額。在投資銀行領域，我們是全球領先者，擁有15%的份額。如您所知，這兩家企業都是長期種植企業。在投資管理業務中，我們正在努力發展我們的實體資產業務、私人信貸業務和流動性業務。

Those businesses are now, on an organic, basis have the kind of runway where a very good argument could be made across -- I'll give you examples in all three divisions and inside of infrastructure as well, where the best answer may be to just hew to the core strategy of raise, manage and allocate capital by continuing to invest in those businesses, to grow them through the power of AI but also through the extension of credit and to work closer with clients.

現在，這些業務在有機基礎上已經擁有了很好的發展基礎，可以進行非常好的論證——我將在所有三個部門以及基礎設施內部給出例子，最好的答案可能就是堅持核心戰略，即通過繼續投資這些業務來籌集、管理和分配資本，通過人工智能的力量來發展它們，同時也通過擴大信貸規模以及與客戶更緊密地合作來發展它們。

It may also be the case though that inorganic opportunities come across the transom that give us incremental perspective or breadth. But the bar is quite high, not because we're not sure what we want to do next. But in fact, because we do know what we want to do next, the best use of capital is probably to continue to hammer away inside of the business given that the level of excess capital that we hold is incrementally growing at this point in the cycle.

然而，也可能存在這樣的情況：無機機會從天而降，帶給我們漸進的視角或廣度。但標準很高，這並不是因為我們不確定下一步要做什麼。但事實上，因為我們確實知道下一步要做什麼，考慮到我們持有的過剩資本水準在周期的這個階段正在逐步增長，對資本的最佳利用可能就是繼續在企業內部進行努力。

If something comes through that is additive to the capability that we already have, we're going to go and do that. But the IM example, referencing back to Glenn's question, is an appropriate one where we have pockets of build that are going to pay off for 5-years, 10-years with durable streams where we may not need to go inorganic. We may be able to just hew to the organic. The inorganic opportunity being folded inside of the organic build is the likely way we are going to go.

如果有什麼事情發生，可以增強我們現有的能力，我們就會去做。但是，回顧 Glenn 的問題，IM 範例是一個合適的範例，其中我們擁有一些建設項目，這些項目將在 5 年、10 年內獲得回報，並且具有持久的收益流，我們可能不需要採用無機方法。我們或許能夠堅持有機原則。有機結構中蘊藏的無機機會很可能就是我們要走的路。

There are no further questions at this time. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you, everyone, for participating. You may now disconnect, and have a great day.

目前沒有其他問題。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開連接，並享受美好的一天。