摩根士丹利 (MS) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. On behalf of Morgan Stanley, I will begin the call with the following disclaimer. This call is being recorded. During today's presentation, we will refer to our earnings release and financial supplement copies of which are available at morganstanley.com.

早上好。我將代表摩根士丹利以以下免責聲明開始通話。此通話正在錄音中。在今天的演講中，我們將參考我們的收益發布和財務補充副本，這些副本可在 morganstanley.com 上獲得。

Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to our notices regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures that appear in the earnings release. This presentation may not be duplicated or reproduced without our consent. I will now turn the call over to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, James Gorman.

今天的演示文稿可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。請參閱我們關於收益發布中出現的前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 措施的通知。未經我們同意，不得複製或轉載本演示文稿。我現在將電話轉交給董事長兼首席執行官詹姆斯戈爾曼。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. The first quarter of 2023 was in -- was very eventful for our industry, but not so eventful for Morgan Stanley. Firm delivered strong results with revenues of over $14.5 billion, net income of $3 billion, ROTCE of 17% and net new asset flows of $110 billion. At the same time, we bought back $1.5 billion of stock while maintaining a CET ratio of 15.1%. In many ways, it was an excellent test to Morgan Stanley and the opportunity to show the strength and stability of our business model.

大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。 2023 年第一季度對我們的行業來說是非常多事的，但對摩根士丹利來說並不是那麼多事。公司業績強勁，收入超過 145 億美元，淨收入為 30 億美元，ROTCE 為 17%，新資產淨流量為 1100 億美元。與此同時，我們回購了 15 億美元的股票，同時保持 15.1% 的 CET 比率。在許多方面，這對摩根士丹利都是一次極好的考驗，也是展示我們業務模式實力和穩定性的機會。

Let me just touch briefly on the turmoil and the banking sector. In my view, we are not in a banking crisis, but we have had and may still have a crisis among some banks. I believe strong regulatory intervention on both sides of the Atlantic led to the cauterization of the damage. I consider the current issues as not remotely comparable to 2008. I was pleased that Morgan Stanley, along with the other large U.S. banks became part of the solution by providing an uninsured deposit line of $30 billion to First Republic Bank. Someone who lived through the darkest days of 2008 where Morgan Stanley was seen as part of the problem, it's indeed rewarding to be here 14 years later as part of the solution.

讓我簡單談談動盪和銀行業。在我看來，我們沒有陷入銀行業危機，但我們已經並且可能仍然存在一些銀行的危機。我相信大西洋兩岸的強有力的監管干預導致了損害的燒灼。我認為當前的問題遠不能與 2008 年相比。我很高興摩根士丹利和其他美國大型銀行通過向 First Republic Bank 提供 300 億美元的無保險存款額度成為解決方案的一部分。經歷過 2008 年最黑暗的日子的人，摩根士丹利被視為問題的一部分，14 年後作為解決方案的一部分來到這裡確實是值得的。

Turning back to our own company. While the performance of the overall business was strong, the results reflected the impact of the environment. In Wealth Management, positive flows of $110 billion were a very strong result, reflect continued growth in the model together with the flight to quality. This obviously gives us a good start to our 1 trillion every 3 years target. Investment management also benefited from diversification as long-term outflows moderated, and we saw strength in Parametric and also on the liquidity product.

回到我們自己的公司。雖然整體業務表現強勁，但結果反映了環境的影響。在財富管理方面，1100 億美元的正流量是一個非常強勁的結果，反映了模型的持續增長以及對質量的追求。這顯然為我們實現每 3 年 1 萬億的目標開了個好頭。隨著長期資金外流放緩，投資管理也受益於多元化，我們看到參數化和流動性產品的實力。

Overall margin in the Wealth Management business was 26%, impacted by modest increases in credit reserves, slightly lower growth of NII versus forecast and ongoing integration expenses. We continue to focus on the levers within our control with an eye towards expense management. In ISG, underwriting and M&A remain very subdued. As I've said previously, these are revenues delayed, not dead. Already, we're seeing a growing M&A pipeline and some spring-like signs of new issuance emerging. That said, it largely remains a back half 2023 and full year 2024 story.

受信貸儲備適度增加、NII 增長略低於預期以及持續整合費用的影響，財富管理業務的總體利潤率為 26%。我們繼續關注我們控制範圍內的槓桿，著眼於費用管理。在 ISG 中，承銷和併購仍然非常低迷。正如我之前所說，這些是延遲的收入，而不是死的。我們已經看到越來越多的併購管道和一些新發行的春天般的跡像出現。也就是說，它在很大程度上仍然是 2023 年的後半年和 2024 年全年的故事。

On the positive side, our fixed income and equity trading teams performed very well in managing through some historic rate moves. Total trading revenues were solid. I expect the markets to remain choppy through this earnings season and for the next several months. However, absent any geopolitical surprise or limited progress on bringing down inflation, I think 2023 is likely to end on a constructive note in most areas. Morgan Stanley is very well positioned not just for 2023, but for several years ahead as we see significant growth opportunities across all 3 of our client platforms. I'll now pass it over to Sharon for more details on the first quarter.

從積極的方面來看，我們的固定收益和股票交易團隊在管理一些歷史性利率變動方面表現出色。總交易收入穩健。我預計在本財報季和接下來的幾個月中，市場將保持震盪。然而，如果沒有任何地緣政治意外或在降低通脹方面取得有限進展，我認為 2023 年可能會在大多數地區以建設性的基調結束。摩根士丹利不僅在 2023 年處於有利地位，而且在未來幾年也處於有利地位，因為我們在所有 3 個客戶平台上都看到了巨大的增長機會。我現在將它傳遞給 Sharon，以了解有關第一季度的更多詳細信息。

Thank you and good morning. The firm produced revenues of $14.5 billion in the first quarter, our EPS was $1.70, and our ROTCE was 16.9%. The firm's results demonstrated the durability of our business model, evidenced by the resilient ROTCE, robust asset consolidation and wealth and our stable capital and liquidity levels. In institutional securities, fixed income and equity supported our clients while navigating volatile markets. Wealth Management showcased $110 billion of net new assets, and investment management continued to benefit from the investments we have made to diversify our offerings.

謝謝你，早上好。公司第一季度的收入為 145 億美元，每股收益為 1.70 美元，ROTCE 為 16.9%。該公司的業績證明了我們商業模式的持久性，彈性 ROTCE、穩健的資產整合和財富以及我們穩定的資本和流動性水平證明了這一點。在機構證券、固定收益和股票方面，我們的客戶在波動的市場中游刃有餘。財富管理展示了 1100 億美元的淨新資產，投資管理繼續受益於我們為實現產品多元化而進行的投資。

The firm's first quarter efficiency ratio was 72%. Deferred cash-based compensation plans negatively impacted our firm's efficiency ratio by approximately 60 basis points. Ongoing technology and marketing and business development investments as well as higher litigation costs, increased operational expenses versus the prior year. Given the broader market uncertainty and the inflationary environment, expense management remains a priority, although we continue to prioritize investments in our long-term goals.

公司第一季度的效率率為 72%。遞延現金補償計劃對我們公司的效率比率產生了大約 60 個基點的負面影響。持續的技術、營銷和業務發展投資以及更高的訴訟成本，與上一年相比增加了運營費用。鑑於更廣泛的市場不確定性和通貨膨脹環境，費用管理仍然是一個優先事項，儘管我們繼續優先投資於我們的長期目標。

Now to the businesses. Institutional Securities revenues were $6.8 billion, an 11% decline from the very strong prior year. Fixed Income and equity results partially offset weakness in banking as we helped our clients' intermediate markets through this period of heightened uncertainty. From a regional perspective, Asia delivered its third highest quarter ever with strength in areas of both, fixed income and equity, aided by the policy dynamics in Japan and the China reopening.

現在到企業。機構證券收入為 68 億美元，較上一年的強勁勢頭下降 11%。固定收益和股票業績部分抵消了銀行業的疲軟，因為我們幫助客戶的中間市場度過了這段不確定性加劇的時期。從區域角度來看，在日本的政策動態和中國重新開放的幫助下，亞洲在固定收益和股票領域取得了有史以來第三高的季度表現。

Investment Banking revenues decreased year-over-year to $1.2 billion. Solid revenue [in] advisory supported results while ongoing market volatility continue to pressure equity and noninvestment-grade underwriting. Advisory revenues were $638 million, benefiting from the completion of previously announced transactions. Revenues were down versus the strong prior year on the back of lower announced volumes in 2022.

投資銀行業務收入同比下降至 12 億美元。穩健的諮詢收入支持業績，而持續的市場波動繼續給股票和非投資級承保帶來壓力。諮詢收入為 6.38 億美元，受益於先前宣布的交易的完成。由於 2022 年宣布的銷量下降，收入與上一年的強勁相比有所下降。

Equity underwriting revenues were $202 million, down 22%, largely as a result of depressed IPO activity. While IPO and follow-on activity remained muted, issuers selectively accessed market windows. Fixed income underwriting revenues were $407 million. Results were supported by an open investment grade market and opportunistic loan activity. Clients are engaged as we help them navigate an uncertain backdrop, and our investment banking backlog is building. Financial sponsors continue to look for opportunities to invest. Within underwriting, we are encouraged by the issuance activity during constructive windows.

股票承銷收入為 2.02 億美元，下降 22%，這主要是由於 IPO 活動低迷。雖然首次公開募股和後續活動保持低迷，但發行人有選擇地進入市場窗口。固定收益承銷收入為 4.07 億美元。結果得到了開放的投資級市場和機會主義貸款活動的支持。當我們幫助客戶應對不確定的背景時，客戶參與其中，我們的投資銀行業務積壓正在增加。財務贊助商繼續尋找投資機會。在承銷方面，我們對建設性窗口期間的發行活動感到鼓舞。

Of course, further conversion from pipeline to realized is predicated on clarity around macroeconomic conditions, stable financing markets and increased corporate confidence. Equity revenues were $2.7 billion, a solid quarter against an uncertain and volatile backdrop. We continue to be a leader in this business, and the results reflect our global and diversified footprint. Cash revenues decreased versus the prior first quarter on lower global volumes. Derivatives results were solid compared to a strong quarter last year as we help navigate -- as we help clients navigate challenging markets.

當然，從管道到實現的進一步轉換取決於宏觀經濟狀況的明朗、穩定的融資市場和增強的企業信心。股票收入為 27 億美元，在不確定和動蕩的背景下是一個穩健的季度。我們繼續成為該業務的領導者，結果反映了我們的全球和多元化足跡。由於全球銷量下降，現金收入與第一季度相比有所下降。與去年強勁的季度相比，衍生品業績穩健，因為我們幫助導航——因為我們幫助客戶應對充滿挑戰的市場。

Time Brokerage revenues were down as equity market levels declined. Clients remained engaged, and balances increased steadily throughout the quarter. Fixed income revenues of $2.6 billion were strong, though lower versus the prior year's elevated result, which was impacted by the beginning of the Fed rate hiking cycle and a start of the war in Ukraine. This quarter's performance was driven by rates and credit. Macro revenues were down modestly year-over-year with relative strength in rates versus foreign exchange in the comparison period.

Time Brokerage 的收入隨著股票市場水平的下降而下降。客戶保持參與，餘額在整個季度穩步增長。固定收益收入為 26 億美元，雖然低於上一年的高業績，但表現強勁，上一年的業績受到美聯儲加息週期開始和烏克蘭戰爭開始的影響。本季度的業績受到利率和信貸的推動。宏觀收入同比小幅下降，同期匯率相對於外匯匯率相對強勁。

The volatility created by varying expectations around global central bank policy aided results across regions. Micro results were up versus the prior year, supported by client engagement. Commodity revenues moderated meaningfully compared to the robust results in the previous first quarter, largely due to reduced volatility in European markets and the mild weather in the U.S. Other revenues of $245 million improved versus the prior year, largely driven by higher revenues on corporate lending activity and gains related to DCP.

圍繞全球央行政策的不同預期造成的波動有助於各地區取得成果。在客戶參與的支持下，微觀結果比上一年有所上升。與前一季度的強勁業績相比，大宗商品收入明顯放緩，這主要是由於歐洲市場波動性減弱和美國天氣溫和。其他收入為 2.45 億美元，與去年同期相比有所增加，這主要是由於企業貸款活動收入增加所致以及與 DCP 相關的收益。

Turning to ISG lending and provisions. Our allowance for credit losses on ISG loans and lending commitments increased to $1.3 billion. In the quarter, ISG provisions were $189 million, and net charge-offs were $70 million. The increase in provisions was driven by the higher recessionary probability and worsening outlook for commercial real estate. The charge-offs were substantially all from a handful of specific loans.

轉向 ISG 貸款和規定。我們對 ISG 貸款和貸款承諾的信用損失準備金增加到 13 億美元。本季度，ISG 準備金為 1.89 億美元，淨註銷為 7000 萬美元。準備金的增加是由於經濟衰退的可能性增加和商業房地產前景惡化。沖銷基本上全部來自少數特定貸款。

Turning to Wealth Management. Revenues were $6.6 billion. Movements in DCP positively impacted revenues by approximately $100 million compared to a negative impact of nearly $300 million in last year's first quarter. Net new asset growth of $110 billion was a standout as we continue to execute on our long-term strategy. Pretax profit was $1.7 billion, and the PBT margin was 26.1%. The margin reflects a more favorable revenue mix, offset by higher credit provisions and an increase in expenses as we continue to invest in our business, inclusive of integration-related expenses. Credit provisions were $78 million, including those that impacted revenue. And the integration-related expenses for the quarter were $53 million, in line with our expectations.

轉向財富管理。收入為 66 億美元。與去年第一季度近 3 億美元的負面影響相比，DCP 的變動對收入產生了大約 1 億美元的積極影響。隨著我們繼續執行我們的長期戰略，1100 億美元的淨新資產增長非常出色。稅前利潤為 17 億美元，PBT 利潤率為 26.1%。利潤率反映了更有利的收入組合，被更高的信貸準備金和隨著我們繼續投資於我們的業務而增加的費用所抵消，包括與整合相關的費用。信貸準備金為 7800 萬美元，包括那些影響收入的準備金。本季度與整合相關的費用為 5300 萬美元，符合我們的預期。

Forward growth drivers remain robust. Net new assets were very strong at $110 billion for the quarter, representing a 10% annualized growth rate of beginning period assets. While NNA will be lumpy and should be looked at on a full year basis, the results illustrate our ability to attract assets and the payoff of our investments to support growth. We saw contribution from all channels with notable strength in the adviser led channel, particularly amongst existing clients. The events in March and the rising interest rate environment over the past year impacted client behavior. Clients increased their allocation to cash equivalents such as money market funds and U.S. treasuries by over 60% versus last year. At the same time, deposits declined in the quarter by 3% to $341 billion.

前瞻性增長動力依然強勁。本季度淨新資產非常強勁，達到 1,100 億美元，初期資產年化增長率為 10%。雖然 NNA 會起伏不定，應該從全年的角度來看，但結果說明了我們吸引資產的能力以及我們支持增長的投資回報。我們看到了所有渠道的貢獻，在顧問主導的渠道中具有顯著優勢，特別是在現有客戶中。 3 月份的事件和過去一年利率上升的環境影響了客戶的行為。與去年相比，客戶對貨幣市場基金和美國國債等現金等價物的配置增加了 60% 以上。與此同時，本季度存款下降 3% 至 3,410 億美元。

We believe investable assets stayed within Morgan Stanley as our clients worked with advisers to help navigate the volatile markets. Today, adviser-led assets invested in cash and cash equivalents stand at a peak of 23% compared to historical average of approximately 18%. Over time, we believe clients will reinvest these balances across more assets when the market outlook improves. In the interim, given our broad product offering, clients are choosing to invest in cash with Morgan Stanley through the cycle, positioning us to provide them with more reinvestment choices down the road.

我們認為，可投資資產留在摩根士丹利，因為我們的客戶與顧問合作，以幫助駕馭動蕩的市場。如今，投資於現金和現金等價物的顧問主導資產達到 23% 的峰值，而歷史平均水平約為 18%。隨著時間的推移，我們相信當市場前景改善時，客戶會將這些餘額再投資於更多資產。在此期間，鑑於我們提供廣泛的產品，客戶選擇在整個週期中與摩根士丹利進行現金投資，這使我們能夠為他們提供更多的再投資選擇。

Net interest income was $2.2 billion, up 40% year-over-year. Results reflect the impact of higher interest rates and lower sweep balances. Fee-based flows of $22 billion were strong. Asset management revenues were $3.4 billion, down 7% versus last year, reflecting lower market levels. Transactional revenues were $921 million. Excluding the impact of DCP, revenues were down 12% versus last year due to fewer new issuance opportunities and reduced activity levels compared to the beginning of 2022. Lending balances declined this quarter to $144 billion, led by paydowns in securities-based lending, reflecting the higher interest rate environment. Importantly, our strategy is working and we are seeing channel migration from workplace to adviser-led.

淨利息收入為 22 億美元，同比增長 40%。結果反映了較高利率和較低清算餘額的影響。 220 億美元的收費流量強勁。資產管理收入為 34 億美元，比去年下降 7%，反映出較低的市場水平。交易收入為 9.21 億美元。排除 DCP 的影響，由於與 2022 年初相比新發行機會減少和活動水平降低，收入比去年下降 12%。本季度貸款餘額下降至 1,440 億美元，主要是證券貸款的償還，反映較高的利率環境。重要的是，我們的策略正在發揮作用，我們正在看到從工作場所到顧問主導的渠道遷移。

Adviser-led flows, originating from workplace relationships reached $28 billion in this quarter alone, double versus this time last year, and this compares to the approximate $50 billion we saw annually over the past 3 years. Furthermore, almost 90% of these flows were from assets held away, also consistent with what we have seen historically. Our strategy remains in place to best serve our clients and support the firm's path to reach $10 trillion in client assets.

僅在本季度，來自工作場所關係的顧問主導的流量就達到了 280 億美元，是去年同期的兩倍，而過去 3 年我們每年看到的流量約為 500 億美元。此外，這些流量中近 90% 來自資產持有，這也與我們歷史上看到的情況一致。我們的戰略保持不變，以最好地服務於我們的客戶，並支持公司實現客戶資產達到 10 萬億美元的目標。

Moving to Investment Management. Revenues of $1.3 billion declined 3% year-over-year, primarily on lower AUM due to the decline of asset values and the cumulative effect of outflows over the prior year. Total AUM ended at $1.4 trillion. Long-term net outflows were $2.4 billion as equity outflows moderated in the quarter. In fixed income, outflows in floating rate loans were partially offset by high yield and emerging markets. Finally, alternatives and solutions delivered strength, driven mostly by demand for Parametric fixed income customized portfolios as well as inflows into private credit.

轉向投資管理。收入為 13 億美元，同比下降 3%，這主要是由於資產價值下降以及上一年資金流出的累積影響導致 AUM 下降。總資產管理規模為 1.4 萬億美元。由於本季度股票流出放緩，長期淨流出 24 億美元。在固定收益方面，浮動利率貸款的流出部分被高收益和新興市場所抵消。最後，替代方案和解決方案表現強勁，主要受對參數化固定收益定制投資組合的需求以及流入私人信貸的推動。

Liquidity and overlay services had inflows of $13.9 billion. Positive liquidity inflows of $37 billion were partially offset by outflows related to a single client relationship. Asset Management and related fees decreased versus the prior year to $1.2 billion due to lower average AUM, partially offset by higher liquidity fee revenue. Performance-based income and other revenues were $41 million. Results were supported by gains in our private alternatives portfolio, reflecting the diversity of the platform.

流動性和覆蓋服務流入 139 億美元。 370 億美元的正流動性流入被與單一客戶關係相關的流出部分抵消。由於平均 AUM 較低，資產管理及相關費用較上年減少至 12 億美元，部分被較高的流動性費用收入所抵消。基於績效的收入和其他收入為 4100 萬美元。結果得到了我們私人替代投資組合收益的支持，反映了平台的多樣性。

Integration-related expenses were $24 million in the quarter, in line with expectations. A key focus area remains maximizing our global distribution capabilities, and we continue to see momentum internationally, particularly from the Eaton Vance fixed income team. Our investments across a broad array of strategies and capabilities, including active ETFs, Parametric Customization and Alternatives position us well to benefit from the diversification as well as to serve our global client base.

本季度與整合相關的費用為 2400 萬美元，符合預期。一個關鍵的重點領域仍然是最大限度地提高我們的全球分銷能力，我們繼續在國際上看到勢頭，特別是來自伊頓萬斯固定收益團隊的勢頭。我們的投資涉及廣泛的策略和能力，包括主動 ETF、參數化定制和另類投資，使我們能夠從多元化中受益並為我們的全球客戶群提供服務。

Turning to the balance sheet. Spot assets were $1.2 trillion, largely in line with the prior quarter. Our standardized CET1 ratio stands at 15.1% and SLR at 5.5%. Standardized RWAs increased quarter-over-quarter, primarily on client activity, consistent with seasonal patterns. We continue to deliver on our commitment to return capital to our shareholders, including buying back $1.5 billion of common stock. Our tax rate was 19.3% for the quarter. The vast majority of share-based award conversion takes place in the first quarter, creating a tax benefit. We continue to expect our full year tax rate to be approximately 23%, which will exhibit some quarter-to-quarter volatility.

轉向資產負債表。現貨資產為 1.2 萬億美元，與上一季度基本持平。我們的標準化 CET1 比率為 15.1%，SLR 為 5.5%。標準化風險加權資產環比增長，主要是由於客戶活動，與季節性模式一致。我們繼續履行向股東返還資本的承諾，包括回購 15 億美元的普通股。本季度我們的稅率為 19.3%。絕大多數以股份為基礎的獎勵轉換發生在第一季度，創造了稅收優惠。我們繼續預計我們的全年稅率約為 23%，這將呈現出一些季度與季度的波動。

As James discussed, the fallout resulting from the events in March is not indicative of the systemic stress that the industry faced during the global financial crisis. Our clear and consistent strategy allowed us to enter this environment well positioned. The outlook for the remainder of this year is difficult to predict. We are keenly aware that opening and functioning markets and economic stability are integral in aiding confidence moving forward. In the interim, we remain focused on supporting our clients and attracting assets to our platform. With that, we will now open up the line to questions.

正如 James 所討論的那樣，3 月份事件造成的後果並不表明該行業在全球金融危機期間面臨的系統性壓力。我們清晰一致的戰略使我們能夠很好地進入這個環境。今年剩餘時間的前景很難預測。我們敏銳地意識到，開放和運作的市場以及經濟穩定對於增強信心向前發展是不可或缺的。在此期間，我們仍然專注於支持我們的客戶並為我們的平台吸引資產。有了這個，我們現在將開放問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take your first question from Daniel Fannon from Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們將從 Jefferies 的 Daniel Fannon 那裡回答您的第一個問題。

Just thinking about the environment and the opportunity, can you talk about adviser recruitment, I assume retention is high, but as you think about the opportunity, given some of the fallout with some of the regional banks, in the current environment, maybe talk about how you're positioned and maybe how that differentiates versus, say, a year ago?

只是考慮環境和機會，你能談談顧問招聘嗎，我假設保留率很高，但當你考慮這個機會時，考慮到一些區域性銀行的一些影響，在當前環境下，也許可以談談你的定位如何，也許這與一年前相比有何不同？

Certainly, the adviser recruiting pipeline remains healthy. We continue to see assets aggregated from all channels, as I mentioned, both recruiting, adviser-led and workplace and when we compare it to a year ago, I think that what we continue to see is that we remain a destination of choice, not only for new advisers, but also obviously, as we stated, from the assets held away that we continue to aggregate in both, the net new assets from existing and from new clients.

當然，顧問招聘渠道仍然健康。正如我所提到的，我們繼續看到來自所有渠道的資產匯總，包括招聘、顧問主導和工作場所，當我們將其與一年前進行比較時，我認為我們繼續看到的是我們仍然是首選目的地，而不是僅適用於新顧問，但正如我們所說，顯然也來自我們繼續匯總的資產，即來自現有客戶和新客戶的淨新資產。

And then just as a follow-up, with NII, generally probably a little more challenged versus where we were last year. How do you think about wealth management margin expansion in this environment? And maybe specifically, can you talk to you the NII trends as you think about this year and how we should think about that given the deposit dynamics you mentioned as well as the current rate environment?

然後作為後續行動，與 NII 相比，與我們去年的情況相比，通常可能面臨更多挑戰。您如何看待這種環境下的財富管理利潤率擴張？也許具體來說，你能和你談談你對今年的 NII 趨勢，以及我們應該如何考慮你提到的存款動態以及當前的利率環境？

So first, let's take NII. As we said, what we've been looking at is we thinking about it in terms of modeled client behavior. Obviously, March itself had a different modeled client behavior than we probably would have expected for other months within the quarter. But when we look ahead, we're currently not expecting expansion of the quarterly NII as we go forward. Now as that relates to the margin, a 26% margin, obviously, is still impacted by certain things such as integration-related expenses. We mentioned also litigation, and we continue to really invest in the model as we go -- as we have and also as we go forward. All of that being said, our eyes are still on the 30% goal that we had set forth. And we will continue to achieve as we move through time to progress to those goals.

首先，讓我們來看看 NII。正如我們所說，我們一直在關注的是我們根據建模的客戶行為來考慮它。顯然，3 月份本身的客戶行為模型與我們可能對本季度其他月份的預期不同。但是當我們展望未來時，我們目前預計季度 NII 不會隨著我們的前進而擴大。現在這與利潤率有關，顯然，26% 的利潤率仍然受到某些因素的影響，例如與整合相關的費用。我們還提到了訴訟，我們將繼續真正地投資於我們前進的模式——就像我們已經擁有的以及我們前進的那樣。儘管如此，我們的目光仍然集中在我們設定的 30% 目標上。隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續實現這些目標。

We'll hear next from Glenn Schorr from Evercore.

接下來我們將聽到來自 Evercore 的 Glenn Schorr 的講話。

Maybe we could follow up on that conversation. I'm just curious, you mentioned that interesting stat of 23% sitting in cash and cash equivalents, up from 18% historically. If we weave that into normalizing over time, but also deposits were down 3% and cost of funds is up a bunch. As we go through the year, do you anticipate the normalization of the cash component at the same time, deposits continue to come down and migration continues to be yield seeking, like can -- I guess, my question with all that ramble is, can the margin get back into that range while we have these cash-seeking and yield-seeking behaviors happening?

也許我們可以跟進那次談話。我只是好奇，你提到了 23% 的現金和現金等價物的有趣統計數據，高於歷史上的 18%。如果我們將其納入隨著時間的推移正常化，但存款也下降了 3%，資金成本大幅上升。在我們度過這一年的過程中，您是否預計現金部分會同時正常化，存款繼續下降，移民繼續尋求收益，就像可以 - 我想，我的問題是，可以當我們發生這些尋求現金和尋求收益的行為時，保證金會回到那個範圍嗎？

So I think that for us to predict exactly what the behavior will be, obviously, if we think about what happened in March, that's a very difficult thing to predict. But I think what you're highlighting in your question, Glenn, as I parse out the very beginning of it, is right now, cash and cash equivalents are at a higher level, a higher level than we have ever seen historically. As we begin to see those assets be deployed into different types of products, that ability and that advice will obviously be accretive. It will also help us as you see asset levels rise. So there is a pull/push factor as you think about those things.

所以我認為，如果我們考慮 3 月份發生的事情，顯然我們要準確預測行為會是什麼，這是一件非常難以預測的事情。但我認為你在你的問題中強調的是，格倫，正如我從一開始就分析的那樣，現金和現金等價物處於更高的水平，比我們歷史上見過的更高的水平。當我們開始看到這些資產被部署到不同類型的產品中時，這種能力和建議顯然會增加。當您看到資產水平上升時，它也將幫助我們。所以當你考慮這些事情時，有一個拉/推因素。

In addition to that, as we continue to aggregate assets, we will gain from scale, the more assets that we see, the more we will see in balances, the more that will probably help as you think about just what the cash balances are more broadly, because assets are being attracted platform. And in addition to that, we will gain for the longer objectives of what that might mean for the margin and for the wealth management business more broadly.

除此之外，隨著我們繼續聚合資產，我們將從規模中獲益，我們看到的資產越多，我們看到的餘額就越多，當您考慮現金餘額更多時，這可能會有所幫助從廣義上講，因為資產被平台吸引。除此之外，我們還將獲得更長期的目標，這可能對利潤率和更廣泛的財富管理業務意味著什麼。

If I could just add and excuse my voice, I have a chest cold. Glenn, on the simple math to take the margin of that business from 26% to 28% is about $120 million. Obviously, we're still absorbing some integration stuff relating to the platform that will be done this year. We had slightly higher reserves. We've been investing pretty aggressively in the business and, frankly, I think, prudent -- appropriately, the payoff is the $110 billion, which is a net new asset organic growth of 10%. So I'll take that any day long, the assets to sustain the building. So yes, we have a lot of levers to push that margin around a couple of percent points. That's not, frankly, a source of great anxiety to me at this point.

如果我可以加上並原諒我的聲音，我得了胸口感冒。格倫，根據簡單的數學計算，將該業務的利潤率從 26% 提高到 28% 約為 1.2 億美元。顯然，我們仍在吸收與今年將完成的平台相關的一些集成內容。我們的儲備略高。我們一直在對該業務進行相當積極的投資，坦率地說，我認為是謹慎的——適當地，回報是 1100 億美元，這是 10% 的淨新資產有機增長。所以我會在任何一天使用它來維持建築物的資產。所以是的，我們有很多槓桿可以將利潤率提高幾個百分點。坦率地說，在這一點上，這並不是我非常焦慮的根源。

And I think you'll see us probably push a few of those levers as we get through this year and certainly next year. So the trade-off is, I think we all want to keep investing for growth. We see a real window here. This $10 trillion target is for real. The tree in every 3 years is 300 -- whatever it is, $330 million a year, $333 million, I guess. And starting off with $110 million, I think we have pretty good visibility to net new money. So it's a balance. But as we get through this integration as it's finally completed, some of those costs roll off. We'll get a little tighter in the expense management in the wealth business. I know Andy and his team are already focused on that. So -- and then the deposit stuff will -- it's kind of going to be what it's going to be depending on where rates go and what the Fed does.

而且我認為你會看到我們可能會在今年和明年肯定會推動其中一些槓桿。所以權衡是，我認為我們都希望繼續投資以實現增長。我們在這裡看到一個真正的窗口。這個 10 萬億美元的目標是實實在在的。每 3 年的樹是 300 棵——不管它是什麼，每年 3.3 億美元，我猜是 3.33 億美元。從 1.1 億美元開始，我認為我們對淨新資金有很好的了解。所以這是一個平衡。但隨著我們最終完成這種整合，其中一些成本就會下降。我們將在財富業務的費用管理方面更加嚴格。我知道安迪和他的團隊已經專注於此。所以——然後是存款——這將取決於利率的走向和美聯儲的行動。

Appreciate that. The follow-up I have a simpler on commercial real estate. Can you just help us just dimensionalize the portfolio? What exposure do you have? And how do we get comfortable that this is going to get -- that keeps on giving, like I'm sure there's details within the provision that you took that could help us?

感謝。後續我有一個更簡單的商業地產。你能幫我們把投資組合維度化嗎？你有什麼曝光率？我們如何讓這一切變得安心——不斷給予，就像我確定你接受的條款中有一些細節可以幫助我們？

Absolutely. I think what's important about that portfolio is that it is diversified. In addition to that, we have been reducing the exposure in the ISG direct, CRE portfolio over the course of the last year or so. So obviously, we keep our eyes on it. As you know, CECL is a life-of-loan concept. And so as you see economic deterioration, you do need to account for that. And the same goes for what we're seeing in the commercial real estate market. So I think that those are the 2 main points I would point you to is that it is diversified, and we have been continuing to reduce that direct exposure.

絕對地。我認為該投資組合的重要之處在於它是多元化的。除此之外，在過去一年左右的時間裡，我們一直在減少 ISG 直接、CRE 投資組合的風險敞口。很明顯，我們一直在關注它。如您所知，CECL 是一個貸款期限概念。所以當你看到經濟惡化時，你確實需要考慮到這一點。我們在商業房地產市場上看到的情況也是如此。所以我認為這是我要指出的兩個要點，那就是它是多元化的，我們一直在繼續減少直接風險敞口。

We'll hear next from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.

接下來我們將聽取來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala 的講話。

I guess just first question, I wanted to follow up, James, a comment you made about being -- expecting 2023 to end on a constructive note. I was wondering if you can elaborate on that just in terms of a lot of this is tied to macro. How do you think the economy paying off in terms of the Fed's fight against inflation damage it does to the economy in the markets? And as you think about ending 2023, where do we think -- where do you think we'll be on all these fronts by the time the year ends?

我想這只是第一個問題，我想跟進，詹姆斯，你發表的評論——期待 2023 年以建設性的方式結束。我想知道您是否可以就其中很多與宏觀相關的方面進行詳細說明。就美聯儲抗擊通貨膨脹對市場經濟造成的損害而言，您如何看待經濟的回報？當你考慮到 2023 年結束時，我們認為 - 你認為到年底時我們將在所有這些方面處於什麼位置？

Well, our house call out for the markets went about flat from where they started at the beginning of the year, and I certainly support that. I think the two wildcards out there are geopolitical risk, which we can't really handicap. My gut is that the U.S.-China relations while having their moments of tension remain overall stable through this year, and global trade remains stable. The second risk, of course, is that the Fed's actions doesn't bring down inflation, while the evidence so far is it is bringing down inflation, but they're probably not done. I think it's likely we'll see at least one more and possibly two more rate increases. That gets you to sort of high 5%, 6% type interest rates, which is not shocking.

好吧，我們對市場的呼籲與年初開始時基本持平，我當然支持這一點。我認為這兩個通配符存在地緣政治風險，我們不能真正阻止它。我的直覺是，美中關係雖然處於緊張時期，但今年總體保持穩定，全球貿易保持穩定。當然，第二個風險是美聯儲的行動不會降低通脹，而目前的證據表明它正在降低通脹，但可能還沒有結束。我認為我們很可能會看到至少再增加一次，可能再增加兩次。這會讓你獲得 5%、6% 的高利率，這並不令人震驚。

And if we get through that, again, many people are calling for a modest recession, it might be, I don't know, obviously. But my gut is, whether it's a modest recession or we dodged that bullet, sort of doesn't matter that much. What really would matter is if inflation is not tamed, it has to go much higher than people are expecting. You go into a much deeper recession. That's certainly not a likely outcome at this point. So that's why I said -- I think I used the words constructive.

如果我們再次度過難關，很多人都在呼籲溫和的衰退，我不知道，很明顯。但我的直覺是，無論是溫和的衰退還是我們躲過了那顆子彈，都沒有那麼重要。真正重要的是，如果通貨膨脹沒有得到抑制，它必須比人們預期的要高得多。你會陷入更深的衰退。在這一點上，這當然不是一個可能的結果。所以這就是為什麼我說——我想我用了建設性這個詞。

For Morgan Stanley, if the sort of green shoots we're starting to see. Again, I don't think they are a Q2-type event but back half of the year and next year in banking and underwriting, we just had a Global Risk Committee yesterday discussed some of the stuff. And certainly the underwriting calendar, it looks like it's picking up a little bit through the back half of the year. I think the wealth management, what Sharon pointed to, the 23% in cash-like security is moving into active investments, that will happen. I mean through the long history of this business, people don't hold a quarter of their money in cash. They just think it is not real.

對於摩根士丹利，如果我們開始看到那種萌芽。同樣，我不認為它們是第二季度類型的事件，但在今年上半年和明年的銀行業和承保業，我們昨天剛剛召開了一個全球風險委員會討論了一些事情。當然，承保日曆看起來在今年下半年有所回升。我認為 Sharon 指出的財富管理，23% 的現金類證券正在轉向主動投資，這將會發生。我的意思是，在這項業務的悠久歷史中，人們不會將四分之一的錢持有現金。他們只是認為這不是真的。

So -- and I suspect once we pass this sort of inflation Fed action, there will be a long pause would be my gut followed by some rate cuts starting in 2024. I do not expect that this year. So when I put it all together, relative to sort of other periods that I've been through my career, I think it feels -- given the landlord, given the geopolitical stuff, given the inflation surge given COVID, it actually feels surprisingly benign from what it could have been.

所以 - 我懷疑一旦我們通過這種通貨膨脹的美聯儲行動，我的直覺將是長時間的停頓，然後是從 2024 年開始的一些降息。我預計今年不會。因此，當我將所有這些放在一起時，相對於我職業生涯中經歷的其他時期，我認為感覺——考慮到房東，考慮到地緣政治因素，考慮到 COVID 導致的通脹激增，實際上感覺出奇的溫和從它可能是什麼。

Now that's not denying there are clear stresses, the commercial real estate that I think Glenn just asked about across the banking sector, what's going on in some of those banks with very idiosyncratic portfolios that frankly didn't match duration interest rate risk well is -- were issues. There are parts of the world that are still having slower growth. So it's not a perfect -- kind of remains the rolling stones song, you can't always get what you want but you get what you need. And I think about Morgan Stanley coming out of this, and we're kind of getting what we need. We're getting a 15% CET1. We're getting a 17% ROTCE, decent revenue, decent earnings, obviously, opportunity to take some costs out. And I think very well positioned on a go-forward basis. So that's where the word constructive came from. Sorry, it's a long answer for one word.

現在這並不否認存在明顯的壓力，我認為格倫剛剛在整個銀行業詢問的商業房地產，在一些銀行中發生的事情非常特殊的投資組合，坦率地說，這些銀行與久期利率風險不匹配 - - 是問題。世界上有些地區的增長速度仍在放緩。所以這不是一首完美的——有點像滾石樂隊的歌曲，你不能總是得到你想要的，但你會得到你需要的。我想到摩根士丹利從中走出來，我們正在得到我們需要的東西。我們獲得了 15% 的 CET1。我們獲得了 17% 的 ROTCE，體面的收入，體面的收入，顯然，有機會削減一些成本。而且我認為在前進的基礎上定位非常好。這就是建設性這個詞的由來。抱歉，一個字回答很長。

No. I appreciate the color. And just as a follow-up, when we think about capital return in terms of one, the pace of buybacks, given the macro uncertainty, any perspective there? And just opportunistically, do you see this as creating opportunities inorganically M&A-wise for Morgan Stanley as we look forward?

不，我喜歡這種顏色。作為後續行動，當我們從一個方面考慮資本回報時，回購的速度，考慮到宏觀不確定性，有什麼觀點嗎？就機會主義而言，您是否認為這會像我們期待的那樣為摩根士丹利創造無機併購機會？

We've maintained -- it's a very good question. I'll deal with sort of what the capital position is now and what the opportunities are for excess capital. On the capital position now, CET1 is running at 15.1%. We obviously have control over that dial to a large extent. So -- and we have tilted conservative. I think it's fair to say. I haven't seen all the numbers, but I'm pretty sure we're at the top of or above all of our competitors set again, and we've been that way for quite a while. So on current capital requirements with the last stress test, we're at 13.2%, I think or 13.3%, somewhere around there. So 15% is a very healthy buffer. But we've got a new stress test coming out. So many people feel that's going to be a little tougher than what it was last year. It might be, and we've obviously got plenty of capital for it.

我們一直堅持——這是一個很好的問題。我將討論現在的資本狀況以及過剩資本的機會。目前的資本狀況，CET1 運行在 15.1%。我們顯然在很大程度上控制了那個錶盤。所以——我們傾向於保守。我覺得這樣說很公平。我還沒有看到所有的數字，但我很確定我們再次處於所有競爭對手的頂端或之上，而且我們已經這樣做了很長一段時間。因此，根據上次壓力測試的當前資本要求，我認為我們處於 13.2% 或 13.3% 左右。所以 15% 是一個非常健康的緩衝。但是我們有一個新的壓力測試出來了。很多人認為這會比去年更難一些。可能是，而且我們顯然有足夠的資金。

So I don't expect any issues whatsoever. And then we have Basel III coming out in, I think, sort of late May, June time period where -- and again, that will be implemented probably 2025 that looks like earliest. So again, there's time for the banks to adjust their capital position. So we will have much better visibility as to what we're dealing with by, say, July 1. And I -- again, I don't -- I suspect it might drive some changes in how we run our balance sheet, but I don't think it's going to involve anything particularly draconian.

所以我不希望有任何問題。然後我們有 Basel III 出來，我認為，大約在 5 月下旬，6 月的時間段——再一次，這可能會在 2025 年實施，看起來最早。因此，銀行有時間調整其資本狀況。因此，我們將在 7 月 1 日之前更好地了解我們正在處理的問題。而且我 - 再一次，我不 - 我懷疑這可能會推動我們運行資產負債表的方式發生一些變化，但是我不認為它會涉及任何特別嚴厲的事情。

Now given that, we like to maintain a healthy buffer. We have done, obviously, the deals we did in the last couple of years, E-Trade and Eaton Vance, which I just said I couldn't be more happy with both, the timing of those deals, the pricing of those deals and the performance of the businesses. And when we see a really robust market environment, you'll see that even more so in spades. We've had a very healthy dividend yield. I think it's over 3.5% churn, something like that now. We believe in the dividend. I've said for years, and I think of the wealth management business as a dividend stock, and we're clearly making more money in that business than we're paying out in dividend.

現在鑑於此，我們希望保持健康的緩衝。很明顯，我們已經完成了過去幾年的交易，E-Trade 和 Eaton Vance，我只是說我對這兩者都非常滿意，這些交易的時間安排，這些交易的定價以及業務的表現。當我們看到一個真正強勁的市場環境時，你會發現它更是如此。我們的股息收益率非常健康。我認為流失率超過 3.5%，現在差不多。我們相信紅利。我已經說過很多年了，我認為財富管理業務是股息股票，我們在該業務中賺的錢顯然多於我們支付的股息。

And we're buying back. I mean we dove the buyback down a little bit. I think to $1.5 billion, we're probably running at $2.5 billion at our peak last year on a quarterly basis. And we did that just -- it was an interesting environment. I mean, let's just say you had two of the biggest banks fail in the last 15 years. So being a little prudent, a little conservative, watching that going on. You don't want to be too grabby is my attitude. So I think we have lots of flexibility. There is no doubt we can and over the years, we'll do more acquisitions in my mind. There is no doubt about that whatsoever. And it will be in the wealth and asset management space. And we constantly keep a list of who's attractive and who would be a good fit.

我們正在回購。我的意思是我們稍微降低了回購。我認為對於 15 億美元，我們可能在去年的高峰期按季度運行 25 億美元。我們就是這麼做的——這是一個有趣的環境。我的意思是，假設在過去 15 年中有兩家最大的銀行倒閉了。所以要謹慎一點，保守一點，觀察這種情況的發生。你不要太貪心是我的態度。所以我認為我們有很大的靈活性。毫無疑問，我們可以，多年來，我認為我們會進行更多的收購。這是毫無疑問的。它將出現在財富和資產管理領域。我們會不斷保留一份名單，列出誰有吸引力，誰最適合。

But obviously, I couldn't say if there was something imminent, but there's nothing imminent, but it's something we focus on. So again, I'm sorry, I'm giving long answers this morning. It must be this cold that I've got.

但顯然，我不能說是否有什麼迫在眉睫的事情，但沒有什麼迫在眉睫，但這是我們關注的事情。再次抱歉，今天早上我的回答很長。我一定是感冒了。

We'll move next to Steven Chubak from Wolfe Research.

接下來我們將轉到 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak。

So I wanted to start off just unpacking the NNA lows that you saw in the quarter. I mean 10% is really an impressive result. The fee-based flows continue to lag brokerage. And just wanted to better understand what you see as a sustainable fee-based flow rate. And just as we try to evaluate the durability of th1 10%. How much of the quarterly inflows were from FRC where you're clearly a destination of choice for some of those attriting advisers?

所以我想從解開你在本季度看到的 NNA 低點開始。我的意思是 10% 確實是一個令人印象深刻的結果。基於費用的流量繼續落後於經紀業務。只是想更好地了解您所看到的可持續收費流量。就像我們嘗試評估 th1 10% 的耐用性一樣。有多少季度資金流入來自 FRC，您顯然是其中一些吸引顧問的首選目的地？

I'm going to try and remember all of your questions, Steve, in order. So if I forget one, just remind me. The first point on FRC, I'll take first. In terms of the regionals, more broadly, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, I believe we had about $90 billion that came in without any relationship to those regionals. And so that shows cases to you that's well above the average that we've seen. So I think it just continues to show that the investments that we have made are really working as we move forward. So that's sort of point number one. The second point that I mentioned, and I think you asked, where are those assets coming from?

史蒂夫，我會試著按順序記住你所有的問題。因此，如果我忘記了一個，請提醒我。關於 FRC 的第一點，我先說。就地區而言，更廣泛地說，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，我相信我們有大約 900 億美元的資金與這些地區沒有任何關係。因此，向您展示的案例遠高於我們所見的平均水平。所以我認為它只是繼續表明我們所做的投資在我們前進的過程中確實有效。所以這是第一點。我提到的第二點，我想你問過，這些資產來自哪裡？

It's really -- in this particular quarter was in that adviser-led space, both from existing accounts and new clients. To me, what was most remarkable when I was going through the diligence materials really was what we're seeing from existing clients. So the idea that we continue to be a destination of choice for our existing clients and attracting assets held away, again, speaks to all the conversations that we've all had over the course of the last 7 years or so talking about investments to give our advisers more time to service their clients as we move forward.

真的——在這個特定的季度裡，來自現有客戶和新客戶的顧問主導的領域。對我來說，當我仔細閱讀盡職調查材料時，最引人注目的確實是我們從現有客戶那裡看到的。因此，我們繼續成為現有客戶的首選目的地並吸引資產的想法再次說明了我們在過去 7 年左右的時間裡進行的所有對話，討論投資給隨著我們的前進，我們的顧問有更多時間為他們的客戶提供服務。

Then the final question that you asked around the fee-based flows, actually a very strong fee-based flow number, to be honest, from our perspective in an environment where individuals -- we think about it, cash and cash equivalents are high. You're thinking about putting your money into managed kind of accounts associated with it from that fee-based concept. You're unlikely to do that in a period of time where you think the cash and cash equivalents and safety might be what you're looking for right now. And so that is, in fact, the dry powder that we have that over time could move into the fee-based assets. So I think it's actually a strong number given the environment that we have on the backdrop.

然後你問的關於收費流量的最後一個問題，實際上是一個非常強大的收費流量數字，老實說，從我們的角度來看，在個人的環境中 - 我們認為現金和現金等價物很高。您正在考慮從基於收費的概念將您的資金投入與其相關聯的託管賬戶。在您認為現金和現金等價物以及安全性可能是您現在正在尋找的時間段內，您不太可能這樣做。因此，事實上，隨著時間的推移，我們擁有的干火藥可能會轉移到收費資產中。因此，考慮到我們所處的環境，我認為這實際上是一個很大的數字。

Really helpful color, Sharon. And just for my follow-up, with -- on sweep deposits, those are now running below 4% of AUM. That's historically been a strong support level for transactional cash within the advisory space broadly. I was hoping you can give some perspective on how we could think about where [sweep cash] could potentially bottom? And have you seen any continued mix shift into sweep or deposit pressures in April so far?

真正有用的顏色，莎倫。就我的後續行動而言，對於掃描存款，這些存款現在低於 AUM 的 4%。從歷史上看，這一直是廣泛諮詢領域內交易現金的強大支持水平。我希望你能就我們如何思考 [清掃現金] 可能觸底的位置給出一些看法？到目前為止，您是否看到任何持續的混合轉變為 4 月份的清倉或存款壓力？

As it relates to April, I talked a little bit in one of the earlier questions about modeled client behavior. And that what we did see is that in March, we really deviated from some of that modeled client behavior. Now in April, we have been more in line with modeled client behavior. So that does speak to your point of maybe we are in a position where from a transactional patch level, we're there. But again, as James said, it is an uncertain environment. And so from that perspective, we'll have to wait and see how we move through time from here.

關於 4 月，我在之前的一個問題中談到了一些關於建模客戶行為的問題。而我們確實看到的是，在 3 月份，我們確實偏離了一些建模的客戶行為。現在是 4 月，我們更加符合模型化的客戶行為。所以這確實說明了你的觀點，也許我們處於從交易補丁級別開始的位置，我們就在那裡。但同樣，正如詹姆斯所說，這是一個不確定的環境。因此，從這個角度來看，我們將不得不拭目以待，看看我們如何從這裡穿越時空。

Moving next to Brennan Hawken from UBS.

從瑞銀搬到 Brennan Hawken 旁邊。

I'd actually love to follow up on that last question from Steven. So April is more modeled. April is typically a tax payment month, which is a headwind. So are you seeing -- where is that cash getting funded from? Are you seeing some of the taxes -- tax payments coming out of both, sweep and the other higher cost deposit sources? Is it more biased to the higher cost? Could that provide some relief? And when we put all that into the mix and think about NII going forward, should we be thinking about stable NII? We know it's not growing, but funding -- this funding cost elevation maybe could lead to some downside. So curious how we should be thinking about that.

我真的很想跟進史蒂文的最後一個問題。所以 April 更像模型。 4 月通常是納稅月，這是不利因素。那麼你看到了嗎——這些現金是從哪裡獲得資金的？您是否看到了一些稅收——來自掃除和其他成本較高的存款來源的稅收？是不是更偏向於更高的成本？這能提供一些安慰嗎？當我們把所有這些都考慮進去並考慮 NII 的發展時，我們應該考慮穩定的 NII 嗎？我們知道它沒有增長，但資金——這種資金成本的上升可能會導致一些下行。很好奇我們應該如何考慮這一點。

I think that your question in terms of April in terms of where it's coming from, the exact breakdown is challenging to see in terms of exactly where it's coming from, from all of the deposits perspective because there's -- could -- as you know, cash is fungible, so you could take something and then move it into a different security or a different asset. To parse that out is challenging. I do think that what's more important, as you highlight, is that it is tax season. And so to not see an acceleration is obviously one of the more optimistic signs that you are moving through more modeled client behavior. Now what it means from funding, we obviously have many funding different places. I don't think that funding is concern, as you mentioned, it does matter from an NII perspective, but it will be a function of 2 things, Brennan.

我認為你關於 4 月份的問題是從哪裡來的，從所有存款的角度來看，確切的細分很難從它的確切來源來看，因為有 - 可能 - 如你所知，現金是可替代的，因此您可以拿走一些東西，然後將其轉移到不同的證券或不同的資產中。解析出來是具有挑戰性的。我確實認為，正如您強調的那樣，更重要的是現在是納稅季節。因此，看不到加速顯然是更樂觀的跡象之一，表明您正在經歷更多建模的客戶行為。現在它從資金中意味著什麼，我們顯然有很多資金不同的地方。我不認為資金是一個問題，正如你提到的那樣，從 NII 的角度來看它確實很重要，但它將是兩件事的函數，Brennan。

As you know, rate expectations have also changed since January. And so our NII forecast and predictions are based on modeled client behavior in terms of cash, sweeps et cetera, and also where interest rates are and where the forward curve is for Fed bonds. And so as you begin to see if that changes, that could change your NII forecast. We are still, if you look at modeled client behavior, asset sensitive. And so from that perspective, I think that gives you a few different pieces to put together in terms of how to think about the forward look based on deferred assumptions.

如您所知，利率預期自 1 月以來也發生了變化。因此，我們的 NII 預測和預測是基於模擬客戶在現金、清掃等方面的行為，以及利率和美聯儲債券的遠期曲線。因此，當您開始查看情況是否發生變化時，這可能會改變您的 NII 預測。如果您觀察建模的客戶行為，我們仍然對資產敏感。因此，從這個角度來看，我認為這為您提供了一些不同的部分，可以根據推遲的假設來思考前瞻性。

Okay. Obviously, a lot of uncertainty, so I appreciate that color. And then one more on the net new asset component. You guys have an offer for -- promotional offer and it's tied to higher yielding cash alternatives. What percentage of the net new assets came into -- from that promotion this quarter? And in the past, you've spoken about how when you bring that cash in, a majority of it stays in the system. Do you have any more granular statistics on what portion of that stays in the system? It's obviously good that it comes into the system, but kind of curious when we think about stickiness and how much is hot money and how much is actually durable.

好的。顯然，有很多不確定性，所以我很欣賞那種顏色。然後是淨新資產部分。你們有一個優惠——促銷優惠，它與更高收益的現金替代品有關。本季度的促銷活動帶來的淨新資產的百分比是多少？過去，您曾談到當您將現金帶入時，其中大部分會留在系統中。您是否有關於保留在系統中的那一部分的更詳細的統計信息？它進入系統顯然是件好事，但是當我們考慮粘性以及有多少是熱錢以及有多少實際上是耐用的時，有點好奇。

So the best way to think about the stickiness within the system is actually NNA, right? Because you're going to see the outflows would be a net negative to the NNA more broadly. And so the consistent growth over time, if you look at it all the way back even to when we saw promotional levels back, I remember we spoke about this in '18 and I think it was '17 and '18. In those early years, that was still seeing net new asset inflows over time. So for me, the most important thing is, well, what's the net? The net continues to be positive and continues to ramp higher. In terms of the CD exact offerings and what that would mean from NNA, it's considered NNA if it's brought out from outside of the firm.

因此，考慮系統內部粘性的最佳方法實際上是 NNA，對嗎？因為你會看到資金流出將更廣泛地對 NNA 產生淨負面影響。因此，隨著時間的推移持續增長，如果你一直回顧它，甚至可以追溯到我們看到促銷水平的時候，我記得我們在 18 年談到過這個問題，我認為是 17 年和 18 年。在最初幾年，隨著時間的推移，新資產淨流入仍然存在。所以對我來說，最重要的是，什麼是網？淨值繼續為正，並繼續走高。就 CD 確切的產品以及 NNA 意味著什麼而言，如果它是從公司外部帶出來的，它就被認為是 NNA。

And again, what's important here is that we continue to see more in the advisor-led space. And that, over time, again, think about the channel migration from workplace into the advisor-led space. What's important here is that when people begin to [seed] money into advisory-light, we actually see more money from assets held away. So I know that doesn't answer your question directly, but I think it's important to highlight, as people begin to work with an adviser, what we said to you is 90% of the assets that then come are from assets held away outside the building. So just again, another proof point that once they understand what the adviser has to offer, it helps aggregate new assets into our system.

同樣，這裡重要的是我們繼續在顧問主導的領域看到更多。而且，隨著時間的推移，再次考慮從工作場所到顧問主導空間的渠道遷移。這裡重要的是，當人們開始將錢[播種]到諮詢燈中時，我們實際上會從資產中看到更多的錢。所以我知道這並沒有直接回答你的問題，但我認為重要的是要強調，當人們開始與顧問合作時，我們對你說的是，隨後獲得的 90% 的資產都來自外部持有的資產建築。因此，再次證明，一旦他們了解顧問必須提供的內容，它有助於將新資產聚合到我們的系統中。

We'll hear next from Gerard Cassidy with RBC Capital Markets.

接下來我們將聽到來自 RBC 資本市場的 Gerard Cassidy 的講話。

Sharon, can you share with us, when you guys talked about -- I think James said around 25% of your wealth management customers' assets are in cash or cash equivalents, which is high, of course, what interest rate do you guys sense? Meaning, do rates at the fall 100 or 200 basis points for that money to move back into more traditional assets?

Sharon，你能和我們分享一下嗎，當你們談到——我記得 James 說你的財富管理客戶的資產中大約有 25% 是現金或現金等價物，這當然很高，你們覺得利率是多少？ ？意思是，利率下降 100 或 200 個基點會使這些資金轉回更傳統的資產嗎？

So I don't actually know that it's the absolute value -- the rate level, and I will answer it in 2 different ways. First, you have to remember that the events in March didn't make people -- I mean, we all read the popular press, and most individuals begin to think about what is the most risk-free asset, that being a U.S. treasuries. So one should not be surprised if they begin to move assets into U.S. treasuries. So I do think that it's a function also of uncertainty and not just the absolute level of where interest rates are or aren't.

所以我實際上並不知道它是絕對值——利率水平，我將以兩種不同的方式回答它。首先，你必須記住，三月份的事件並沒有讓人——我的意思是，我們都讀過大眾媒體，大多數人開始思考什麼是最無風險的資產，那就是美國國債。因此，如果他們開始將資產轉移到美國國債中，人們不應該感到驚訝。所以我確實認為它也是不確定性的函數，而不僅僅是利率水平的絕對水平。

Now as I said, we have these moments that are opportunistic, both when you think about the corporate activity and then when you think about the individual activities, so both, for ISG and in Wealth Management. And that was evidenced last August, last October and then earlier in January and February that when markets become calm that you begin to see movements into asset classes and further activity as evidenced by our self-directed channel as well. So I don't know that there's an absolute level of rates, but I would say it's related to confidence in the system more broadly and a belief in asset levels being in a place that will bottom and then potentially will rise as we go forward.

現在正如我所說，我們有這些機會主義的時刻，無論是當你考慮公司活動時，還是當你考慮個人活動時，對於 ISG 和財富管理都是如此。去年 8 月、去年 10 月以及 1 月和 2 月早些時候都證明了這一點，當市場變得平靜時，您開始看到資產類別的變動和進一步的活動，我們的自主渠道也證明了這一點。所以我不知道利率有絕對水平，但我想說這與更廣泛地對系統的信心以及對資產水平處於底部的信念有關，然後可能會隨著我們的前進而上升。

I totally agree with that. I think, Gerard, if people can get a 4-ish percent return in a very uncertain environment, that's not a bad thing to have in your portfolio, at least for 25% of their portfolio. As they get better visibility, as we all get better visibility of when the Fed stops moving and did we go into this recession that some appearing or not or if it's modest, then I think you start seeing more engagement. I mean, it's just -- we've all been through this. It's human behavior. We've had a pretty significant shock to the system in the last few months, which thankfully the world kind of -- the financial world got through, but could have turned sideways. And higher rates came at a time of increased uncertainty. So it's entirely rational that people would take advantage of higher rates and increased uncertainty by [parking] in cash, but they're not going to stay in cash at 4% forever. That's not going to happen.

我完全同意。我認為，杰拉德，如果人們能夠在非常不確定的環境中獲得 4% 左右的回報，那麼在您的投資組合中擁有這並不是一件壞事，至少對於他們投資組合的 25% 而言。隨著他們獲得更好的知名度，當我們都更好地了解美聯儲何時停止行動以及我們是否進入了這場衰退，有些出現或不出現，或者如果它適度，那麼我認為你開始看到更多的參與。我的意思是，這只是——我們都經歷過這一切。這是人的行為。在過去的幾個月裡，我們對系統產生了相當大的衝擊，幸運的是，世界——金融界度過了難關，但本可以轉向橫向。更高的利率是在不確定性增加的時候出現的。因此，人們通過[停放]現金來利用更高的利率和增加的不確定性是完全合理的，但他們不會永遠保持 4% 的現金。那不會發生。

I appreciate that. And then just as a follow-up question, Sharon, you talked about the credit, the provision and linking into commercial real estate. Of the total loan portfolio, what percentage of that is in commercial real estate mortgages? And are there any construction loans in that portfolio?

我很感激。然後作為後續問題，莎倫，你談到了信貸、供應和與商業房地產的聯繫。在總貸款組合中，商業房地產抵押貸款所佔的百分比是多少？該投資組合中是否有任何建築貸款？

As it relates specifically to the construction loans, I don't know about the exact construction loans that you might have. I'm certain that somewhere there could be a construction loan. But more broadly, I think the absolute level, we do disclose from the ISG side around that $10 billion, and that was in our filings from last quarter.

由於它具體涉及建築貸款，我不知道您可能擁有的確切建築貸款。我確定某個地方可能會有建築貸款。但更廣泛地說，我認為絕對水平，我們確實從 ISG 方面披露了大約 100 億美元，這是在我們上個季度的文件中。

Devin Ryan from JMP Securities.

JMP 證券公司的 Devin Ryan。

I just want to start just on market share opportunities that maybe are accelerating here. You touched on some on the call but one of your peers highlighted your private banking in Europe, just on the heels of some of the banking stress or potentially even just opportunities where you're going to get paid more for committing capital when your capital is becoming more scarce in the system. So just love to maybe think about some of the things that you're seeing just over the last month or so that might be sustained going forward.

我只想從這裡可能正在加速的市場份額機會開始。您在電話會議上談到了一些問題，但您的一位同行強調了您在歐洲的私人銀行業務，緊隨其後的是一些銀行業壓力，或者甚至可能只是機會，當您的資本不足時，您將因承諾資本而獲得更多報酬在系統中變得越來越稀缺。所以只是想想想你在過去一個月左右看到的一些事情，這些事情可能會持續下去。

On capital opportunities, in Europe, sorry, could you repeat what's the question?

關於資本機會，在歐洲，抱歉，你能重複一下問題是什麼嗎？

Yes. The question is just where there's opportunities to take market share kind of in the wake of the bank in turmoil. So 1 peer had highlighted private banking in Europe as 1 example. But just whether there's others as well here, just on the heels of the recent stress.

是的。問題在於，在銀行陷入動蕩之後，哪裡有機會佔據市場份額。因此，一位同行強調了歐洲的私人銀行業務作為 1 個例子。但就在最近的壓力之後，這裡是否還有其他人。

Yes. Devin, let me have a go at that because I probably built off the capital discussion and where we'd invest. We do not have an appetite for private bank in Europe. In fact, we sold our Private Bank in Europe to Credit Suisse several years ago. It's one of the first things I did because we'd had an unhappy experience. We've owned the business for 21 years, and we lost money for 20 of them. And I kind of took a fairly simple view that if you lose 20 out of 21, you've probably got to lose it. So we got out, you need scale. And frankly, it's not a good fit I believe, with the current regulatory structure that we operate under. So much more interested in the U.S. and Asia and some in Lat Am.

是的。德文，讓我試一試，因為我可能建立在資本討論和我們投資的地方。我們對歐洲的私人銀行沒有興趣。事實上，我們在幾年前就將我們在歐洲的私人銀行出售給了瑞士信貸。這是我做的第一件事，因為我們有過不愉快的經歷。我們擁有這家公司已經 21 年了，其中有 20 年是虧損的。我有一個相當簡單的觀點，如果你在 21 場比賽中輸了 20 場，你可能就得輸了。所以我們出去了，你需要規模。坦率地說，我認為這不太適合我們目前運營的監管結構。對美國和亞洲以及拉丁美洲的一些人更感興趣。

The U.S. business, it's just going to be an asset gathering monster. To bring in $110 billion in 1 quarter and 1 trillion over the last 3 years. There aren't many companies in the world that have 1 trillion assets under management. So I think we've got to keep our eye on the prize here and not get distracted by going down some rabbit hole, because somebody else is in stress, maybe somebody else is in stress because it's not a very attractive rabbit hole when you get down inside it. We know what we've got here, and it's a killer machine.

美國企業，它將成為一個資產收集的怪物。第一季度收入 1100 億美元，過去 3 年收入 1 萬億美元。世界上管理著1萬億資產的公司並不多。所以我認為我們必須關注這裡的獎品，不要因為掉進某個兔子洞而分心，因為其他人有壓力，也許其他人有壓力，因為當你得到它時，它不是一個非常有吸引力的兔子洞在裡面。我們知道我們在這裡得到了什麼，這是一台殺手機器。

Asia is growing nicely. Again, LatAm some, but the workplace conversion is a massive opportunity now that we're focused on. Obviously, we're tracking financial advisers from seeing somewhat of a safe harbor, I guess, across the industry. In our organic flows, if you compare them to our traditional competitors, the warehouses or the online brokers, our organic flows, I think, are on an annualized basis significantly higher than the traditional players. And higher than anybody in the industry. So that's how we think about it. Again, Asia, more interesting. Europe, not interesting. LatAm, a little bit interesting and U.S., definitely interesting.

亞洲增長良好。同樣，LatAm 有一些，但工作場所轉換是一個巨大的機會，因為我們現在專注於此。顯然，我想，我們正在跟踪財務顧問，因為他們看到了整個行業的某種安全港。在我們的有機流量中，如果你將它們與我們的傳統競爭對手、倉庫或在線經紀人進行比較，我認為我們的有機流量按年計算明顯高於傳統參與者。並且高於業內任何人。這就是我們的想法。同樣，亞洲更有趣。歐洲，沒意思。 LatAm，有點有趣，而美國，絕對有趣。

Got it. Okay. Helpful. Just a follow-up. It sounds like you're starting to see maybe a little bit better momentum with financial sponsor clients. I'd love to maybe just touch on those specifically and kind of what the appetite is to do deals or to sell assets and kind of what the -- you think the trigger point is to kind of engage them further.

知道了。好的。有幫助。只是一個跟進。聽起來您開始看到財務贊助商客戶的勢頭可能有所好轉。我可能只是想具體談談那些，以及做交易或出售資產的胃口是什麼——你認為觸發點是進一步吸引他們。

Certainly. I mentioned it actually when I spoke at a February conference this year, which is that when you think about financial sponsors, they may be in a different position than what we would consider traditional M&A i.e. they are faster to market. They are in a position where you might not have the same level of activity from a board. And because of the size, you might have different regulatory restrictions. And so from that perspective, we would expect that they might be first before we see really traditional activity open up.

當然。我在今年 2 月的一次會議上發言時實際上提到過，當你想到財務贊助商時，他們可能處於與我們認為的傳統併購不同的位置，即它們上市速度更快。他們所處的位置可能與董事會的活動水平不同。由於規模的原因，您可能有不同的監管限制。因此，從這個角度來看，我們希望在我們看到真正的傳統活動開放之前，它們可能是第一個。

And that is -- that remains kind of the view that we have. And also as the pipeline begins to build, that's also what we're seeing. In order for that to move forward and become realized, it's really about the opening of the markets in terms of the financing activity as we have seen some of the backlogs clear, that's clearly very helpful. But again, it's about stabilization and it's about confidence.

那就是——這仍然是我們的觀點。而且隨著管道開始建設，這也是我們所看到的。為了向前推進並實現這一點，這實際上是關於在融資活動方面開放市場，因為我們已經看到一些積壓的明確，這顯然非常有幫助。但同樣，這與穩定有關，也與信心有關。

We'll move next to Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo.

我們將搬到富國銀行的 Mike Mayo 旁邊。

What is going so right in Asia that it's your third best quarter in an environment like this? And then what is going so wrong in investment management since you closed Eaton Vance? The first full quarter, it was second quarter '21, if I have that correctly, investment management revenues are down almost 1/4. So shout out to certainly E*TRADE and Wealth doing well. But in terms of investment management, like it just looks from the outside like Eaton Vance isn't panning out the way you expected. But first, the positive on the Asia was going right and then the negative one, what's not going right in investment management?

亞洲有什麼進展如此順利，以至於它是您在這樣的環境中排名第三的最佳季度？那麼自從您關閉 Eaton Vance 以來，投資管理出了什麼問題？第一個完整季度是 21 年第二季度，如果我沒記錯的話，投資管理收入下降了近 1/4。因此，大聲肯定 E*TRADE 和 Wealth 表現良好。但就投資管理而言，從表面上看，伊頓萬斯並沒有像你預期的那樣成功。但首先，對亞洲的正面影響是正確的，然後是負面的，投資管理方面有什麼不對的地方？

Certainly. So let's take Asia first. What we saw over the course of the quarter was China reopening, obviously, supporting us from the equities side and perspective in terms of client engagement. And what's going right also from Asia has been the -- what we have a franchise that we've really built in Japan. And in an environment where interest rate dynamics change, such as what's going on within Japan, that certainly helped us from the macro perspective and the macro business within fixed income. So I think that we're -- that's very important and critical is that it speaks to the global perspective, and it speaks to our global franchise.

當然。因此，讓我們先來看看亞洲。我們在本季度看到的是中國重新開放，顯然，從股票方面和客戶參與的角度支持我們。亞洲也正在發生的事情是 - 我們擁有我們真正在日本建立的特許經營權。在利率動態變化的環境中，例如日本國內正在發生的事情，這無疑從宏觀角度和固定收益中的宏觀業務幫助了我們。所以我認為我們 - 這非常重要和關鍵是它代表了全球視角，代表了我們的全球特許經營權。

Why that is important when you think about investment management and I will tie the 2 together is that you have to invest more broadly to be able to create an environment of diversification. And so Asia might be asleep. Japan, for example, could be asleep for many years, and all of a sudden, central bank activity picks up, and you're there to support your clients with that global franchise. Think about investment management quite similarly. What we're doing is we continue to build a franchise where we're able to have diversified products that are there to capture our client assets.

為什麼當你考慮投資管理時這很重要，我將把兩者聯繫在一起，因為你必須更廣泛地投資才能創造多元化的環境。因此，亞洲可能正在沉睡。例如，日本可能沉睡了很多年，突然之間，中央銀行的活動開始活躍起來，你在那里為你的客戶提供全球特許經營權。以類似的方式思考投資管理。我們正在做的是繼續建立一個特許經營權，我們能夠擁有多樣化的產品來獲取我們的客戶資產。

You highlighted what's going on within investment management. Well, asset levels are down tremendously. However, since we've purchased and we announced the deal associated with Eaton Vance, look at Parametric. We've raised over $45 billion in that product alone. Again, diversification of the portfolio, diversification of product to be there in a period of time where you see activity. That's what we're trying to do and build.

您強調了投資管理中正在發生的事情。嗯，資產水平大幅下降。然而，由於我們已經購買並宣布了與 Eaton Vance 相關的交易，請查看 Parametric。僅該產品一項，我們就籌集了超過 450 億美元。同樣，投資組合的多樣化，產品的多樣化將在您看到活動的一段時間內出現。這就是我們正在嘗試做和構建的。

Yes. I mean I'll just add. I wouldn't frankly, render a judgment yet on the Eaton Vance deal. I think it's a little soon through a challenging market environment. I tell you, I'm personally thrilled with it. And I'm highly confident that 5 years from now, we're going to look back and be thrilled with. A lot of people said that Smith Barney deal was a dumb idea. And a lot of people said, E*TRADE is a dumb idea. And a lot of people said we overpaid for Solium and these things have moments of sort of settling, if you will. It's like good house, its foundations have to settle. And in a very challenging environment, I think the business is holding up great.

是的。我的意思是我會補充。坦率地說，我不會對伊頓萬斯交易做出判斷。我認為在充滿挑戰的市場環境中很快就會到來。我告訴你，我個人對此感到非常興奮。而且我非常有信心，從現在起 5 年後，我們將回顧並為之激動。很多人說美邦的交易是個愚蠢的主意。很多人說，E*TRADE 是個愚蠢的想法。很多人說我們為 Solium 付出了過多的代價，如果你願意的話，這些東西會有一些安定下來的時刻。這就像一座好房子，它的地基必須穩固。在一個非常具有挑戰性的環境中，我認為業務表現良好。

So I'm very happy with that transaction. Great people, great company, some fabulous brands. And I think, Mike, if you come back and ask that question in 3 years' time, hopefully, you won't reverse the questions. But maybe you'll say what's going right with Eaton Vance and asset management, what's going wrong in some other places. Because I'm sure, as I said in the rolling stone song, you can't always get what you want, given the environment, something might be working. But yes, I'm pretty relaxed about that one.

所以我對這筆交易非常滿意。偉大的人，偉大的公司，一些了不起的品牌。我想，邁克，如果你在 3 年後回來問這個問題，希望你不會推翻這些問題。但也許你會說 Eaton Vance 和資產管理的正確之處，以及其他一些地方的錯誤之處。因為我敢肯定，就像我在滾石歌曲中所說的那樣，你不可能總是得到你想要的，給定環境，有些事情可能會奏效。但是，是的，我對此很放鬆。

I appreciate the answer. Just a short follow-up. It looks like you're not getting any NII guide. Or if you did, I missed it, and we just want some help with our models here. If you want to kind of guide us in a certain direction. I mean clearly, funding costs have gone up in the industry.

我很欣賞這個答案。只是一個簡短的跟進。看起來你沒有得到任何 NII 指南。或者如果你這樣做了，我錯過了，我們只是想在這里為我們的模型提供一些幫助。如果您想指導我們朝某個方向發展。我的意思很清楚，這個行業的融資成本已經上升。

I mean, super hard. I'll be blunt. We sort of guided a little higher on growth in the first quarter and came in plus 1%, which I guess was better than most, but just super hard. So let's get through -- I think let's get through this quarter. We'll learn a lot of taxes. And as Sharon said, it's kind of -- the numbers have reverted back to what we're modeling, which is good. We'll see that. We'll see how much of this cash starts moving. We'll see whether there's further deposit outflows or not.

我的意思是，超級難。我會直言不諱。我們對第一季度的增長給出了更高的指導，並取得了 1% 的增長，我想這比大多數人都要好，但只是太難了。所以讓我們度過難關——我想讓我們度過這個季度吧。我們會學到很多稅收。正如 Sharon 所說，這有點——數字已經恢復到我們正在建模的狀態，這很好。我們會看到的。我們將看看這些現金中有多少開始流動。我們將看看是否有進一步的存款外流。

I mean, it's just super hard to guide right now. So I don't think I know it's sort of -- I don't know if it's fair or not, but it makes your modeling harder, which I appreciate. But also, I don't want to give guidance that we don't really have an intellectual basis or fact basis for doing it. It's just too hard. We're not stressed about it, that much guidance I will give you, but I just don't want to put numbers on the sheet of paper at this point.

我的意思是，現在很難指導。所以我不認為我知道這有點——我不知道這是否公平，但它讓你的建模更難，我很感激。但是，我也不想給出我們確實沒有這樣做的知識基礎或事實基礎的指導。太難了。我們對此沒有壓力，我會給你那麼多指導，但我現在不想把數字寫在紙上。

We'll move next to Matt O'Connor from Deutsche Bank.

接下來我們將轉到德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

Can you talk about the sustainability of the strong fixed income trading revenues? Obviously, on an absolute basis, very good, down from a really strong year ago level and benefits from rate volatility, but at the same time, advisory and DCM was sluggish. So how do you think about this kind of, not just 2Q, but the next several quarters in the kind of environment that we're in and maybe some improvement in IB?

您能談談強勁的固定收益交易收入的可持續性嗎？顯然，在絕對基礎上，非常好，低於一年前的強勁水平，並受益於利率波動，但與此同時，諮詢和 DCM 表現不佳。那麼，您如何看待這種情況，不僅是第二季度，而且是接下來幾個季度我們所處的環境以及 IB 的一些改進？

So the -- our business has done -- I think management has done a phenomenal job in really transforming this business to be a client-centric model focused on velocity of assets, focused on supporting our clients. So the deeper we've gotten into that, the more we've been able to grow our wallet share more broadly and we've been able to be in and around this 10% number. So that's clearly based on the activity that we've seen. Now to your point, should we see an opening up of markets, could there be greater activity? That would also obviously support the wallet more broadly, but we would expect to be there to continue to gain our appropriate share of that client activity.

所以 - 我們的業務已經完成 - 我認為管理層在真正將這項業務轉變為以客戶為中心的模式方面做得非常出色，專注於資產速度，專注於支持我們的客戶。因此，我們對此了解得越深入，我們就越能夠更廣泛地擴大我們的錢包份額，並且我們能夠達到這個 10% 的數字。所以這顯然是基於我們所看到的活動。現在就您的觀點而言，我們是否應該看到市場開放，是否會有更大的活動？這顯然也會更廣泛地支持錢包，但我們希望繼續在客戶活動中獲得適當的份額。

Okay. And then maybe just broadly speaking, like as you think about prime brokerage in both, [pick] and equity, like what's your thought there in terms of committing capital kind of on an incremental basis, like providing more or less funds here or not really any change.

好的。然後可能只是廣泛地說，就像你在[選擇]和股權方面考慮主要經紀業務一樣，就像你在增量基礎上投入資本方面的想法一樣，比如在這裡提供或多或少的資金任何改變。

We continue to invest in that business more broadly. You can see that even on the technology side. We're really proud of the equity franchise and business and the transformation that's had for well over a decade being a market leader. Clearly, as we think about committing capital, it's also, again, about our clients being active in that market as we see, and I highlighted this in my prepared remarks, we do see client balances increase, we've obviously been there to support our clients, and we are looking for the appropriate risk-adjusted return as we continue to invest in that business.

我們繼續更廣泛地投資於該業務。你甚至可以在技術方面看到這一點。我們為股權特許經營權和業務以及十多年來成為市場領導者的轉型感到非常自豪。顯然，當我們考慮投入資金時，正如我們所看到的，我們的客戶在那個市場上也很活躍，我在準備好的發言中強調了這一點，我們確實看到客戶餘額增加，我們顯然一直在那裡支持我們的客戶，我們正在尋找適當的風險調整回報，因為我們繼續投資於該業務。

I'd just add, if you step back from this sort of over a 5-year view, firstly, just take hats off to the team led by Ted and Sam Kellie Smith and then Jay Hallik and (inaudible) in fixed income it's come a long way from, I think, a 6% share. I think we troughed that. I don't even know below after crisis might have been much lower, but sort of 6-ish percent share per half of the last decade, and then steadily moved up to now 10% and pretty stable. It's kind of what we wanted. I mean -- and on the equity side, you can buy share, for sure, more, but you want to be in the part of the prime brokerage business that we want to be in. We don't want to be in the sort of the broker of last resort. So -- but if you step back from it and what you've really got is kind of an oligopoly type structure emerged out of the financial crisis where a smaller number of institutions have the global capability for global sales and trading, and we're now one of them. And that was probably not a given 10 years ago.

我只想補充一點，如果你從這種超過 5 年的觀點中退一步，首先，向 Ted 和 Sam Kellie Smith 以及 Jay Hallik 和（聽不清）固定收益領導的團隊脫帽致敬我認為，離 6% 的份額還有很長的路要走。我想我們已經度過了難關。我什至不知道危機過後的情況可能會低得多，但在過去十年中每半年的份額大約為 6%，然後穩步上升到現在的 10%，而且相當穩定。這正是我們想要的。我的意思是——在股票方面，你當然可以購買更多的股票，但你想參與我們想要參與的大宗經紀業務。我們不想參與其中最後經紀人。所以 - 但如果你退後一步，你真正得到的是一種從金融危機中出現的寡頭壟斷類型結構，其中少數機構擁有全球銷售和交易的全球能力，我們是現在是其中之一。這在 10 年前可能還沒有。

It certainly wasn't a given. And you've just seen, obviously, Credit Suisse has been merged and that business, lots of parts of that business, I suspect disappear relating to the trading side and the prime brokerage. So our position gets stronger, not weaker. All that said, we are pretty careful about how much balance sheet we want to use to grow aggressively on the margin, because we simply have good options in terms of wealth and asset management businesses. So it's a balancing act, but I think the team has done a great job, and I feel really good about where they landed the plane this quarter. Tricky quarter, by the way, particularly in rates.

這當然不是給定的。你剛剛看到，很明顯，瑞士信貸已經合併，我懷疑該業務的很多部分都與交易方面和大宗經紀業務有關。所以我們的地位變得更強，而不是更弱。話雖如此，我們非常謹慎地考慮要使用多少資產負債表來實現利潤率的大幅增長，因為我們在財富和資產管理業務方面有很好的選擇。所以這是一個平衡的行為，但我認為團隊做得很好，我對他們本季度降落飛機的地方感到非常滿意。順便說一句，棘手的季度，尤其是在利率方面。

We'll hear next from Jeremy Sigee from BNP.

接下來我們將聽到來自 BNP 的 Jeremy Sigee 的講話。

Just quite a specific one actually. I thought comp costs were a bit heavy in Wealth and in Investment Management. And you mentioned the deferred comp plans linked to investment performance. Is that heavier deferred comp cost? Is that something that stays with us throughout the year? Or is it -- does it move around? Is that a 1Q specific? Or is that stuck with us for the rest of the year as well?

實際上只是一個非常具體的。我認為財富和投資管理的補償成本有點高。你提到了與投資業績相關的延期補償計劃。那是更重的遞延補償成本嗎？那是一整年都伴隨著我們的東西嗎？或者它——它會四處移動嗎？這是特定於 1Q 的嗎？還是在今年餘下的時間裡也一直困擾著我們？

No, Jeremy, as you'll remember, that moves around with the investments. You'll see both, on the revenue line and the expense line. And so you should look at them together, and that's why we've enhanced the disclosure, so that you can think about them from both sides, understand both, the margin and the comp ratio, both, historically and as we move forward.

不，傑里米，你會記得，它隨著投資而轉移。您會在收入行和費用行上看到兩者。所以你應該一起看看它們，這就是我們加強披露的原因，這樣你就可以從兩方面考慮它們，從歷史上和我們前進的角度來理解兩者，利潤率和補償率。

There are no further questions at this time. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you, everyone, for participating. You may now disconnect.

目前沒有其他問題。女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。