摩根士丹利 (MS) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to Morgan Stanley's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. On behalf of Morgan Stanley, I will begin the call with the following information and disclaimers. This call is being recorded. During today's presentation, we will refer to our earnings release and financial supplement, copies of which are available at morganstanley.com.

早上好。歡迎參加摩根士丹利 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。我將代表摩根士丹利在電話會議開始時提供以下信息和免責聲明。正在錄製此通話。在今天的演示中，我們將參考我們的收益發布和財務補充，其副本可在 morganstanley.com 上獲得。

Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to our notices regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures that appear in the earnings release. This presentation may not be duplicated or reproduced without our consent.

今天的演示文稿可能包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。請參閱我們關於收益發布中出現的前瞻性陳述和非公認會計原則措施的通知。未經我們同意，不得複製或複製本演示文稿。

I will now turn the call over to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, James Gorman.

我現在將把電話轉給董事長兼首席執行官詹姆斯·戈爾曼。

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and I know we're starting a little later than some of the previous quarters, so I appreciate you staying with us. The firm performed well in a very uncertain and difficult environment. An ROTCE of 15%, excluding integration expenses, reflects the stability and strength of the business model.

大家，早安。感謝您加入我們，我知道我們的開始時間比前幾個季度要晚一些，所以我感謝您與我們在一起。該公司在非常不確定和困難的環境中表現良好。不包括整合費用的 15% 的 ROTCE 反映了商業模式的穩定性和實力。

Wealth Management pretax margin, excluding integration expenses, was 28.4%, and coupled with $65 billion of net new assets, demonstrates how this business, even in a very volatile market environment and with indices down over 20% this year, continues to attract new client assets and remains highly profitable. This business' enormous scale and channel diversification should ensure continued success.

財富管理稅前利潤率（不包括整合費用）為 28.4%，加上 650 億美元的淨新資產，表明即使在非常動蕩的市場環境和今年指數下跌超過 20% 的情況下，該業務仍能繼續吸引新客戶資產並保持高利潤。該業務的巨大規模和渠道多元化應確保持續成功。

Investment Management and Investment Banking were clearly impacted by the market environment. But as I've said elsewhere, advisory and underwriting activity has not gone away. It has simply been deferred. Fixed income and equities remains very solid with no areas of obvious concern. Both businesses navigated the complicated markets without serious incident.

投資管理和投資銀行業務明顯受到市場環境的影響。但正如我在其他地方所說，諮詢和承保活動並沒有消失。它只是被推遲了。固定收益和股票仍然非常穩固，沒有明顯值得關注的領域。兩家公司都在復雜的市場中航行，沒有發生嚴重事故。

Finally, the strength of our capital position is very clear, as shown by the continuation of our strong buyback program with $2.6 billion of share repurchases in this past quarter, coupled that with a dividend yield north of 3% and a CET1 ratio of 14.8%. On an operating basis, this firm is doing well in a post-COVID world. From a markets perspective, we expect continued volatility as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten policy such to bring down inflation to acceptable long-term levels.

最後，我們的資本實力非常明顯，我們在上一季度進行了 26 億美元的股票回購，以及股息收益率超過 3% 和 CET1 比率為 14.8%，這表明我們繼續執行強勁的回購計劃。 .在運營基礎上，這家公司在後疫情時代表現良好。從市場的角度來看，我們預計隨著美聯儲繼續收緊政策以將通脹率降至可接受的長期水平，波動將持續。

This is an environment where it behooves management to be prudent but balanced. A wholesale retreat from the market is not called for, but at the same time, one must be more cautious in credit-sensitive parts of the business. Fortunately, the business model changes for the past decade or more plus the acquisitions of Smith Barney, E*TRADE and Eaton Vance put us in a position of significant relative strength and should support solid absolute performance in the months ahead.

在這種環境下，管理層應該審慎而平衡。不需要大規模撤出市場，但與此同時，必須對信貸敏感的業務部分更加謹慎。幸運的是，過去十年或更長時間的商業模式發生變化，加上對美邦、E*TRADE 和伊頓萬斯的收購，使我們處於相對強勢的地位，應該會在未來幾個月內支持穩健的絕對業績。

I'll now turn the call over to Sharon to discuss the quarter in detail, and together, we'll take your questions.

我現在將電話轉給 Sharon 詳細討論本季度，我們將一起回答您的問題。

Thank you, and good morning. The firm produced revenues of $13 billion in the quarter. Our EPS was $1.47, and our ROTCE was 14.6%. Excluding integration-related expenses, our EPS was $1.53, and our ROTCE was 15.2%. We built our business model to perform through the cycle and withstand volatile environments, evidenced again by the performance this quarter.

謝謝你，早上好。該公司本季度的收入為 130 億美元。我們的每股收益為 1.47 美元，ROTCE 為 14.6%。不包括與整合相關的費用，我們的每股收益為 1.53 美元，我們的 ROTCE 為 15.2%。我們建立了我們的商業模式，以在整個週期中執行並承受動蕩的環境，本季度的表現再次證明了這一點。

In Institutional Securities, fixed income benefited from macroeconomic developments, and in Wealth Management, we continue to attract strong net new assets, underscoring the benefits of an advice-driven model and a variety of backdrops. The firm's year-to-date efficiency ratio was 72%. Excluding integration-related expenses, our year-to-date efficiency ratio was 71%, ensuring future growth remains a priority, and we continue to invest in tech-driven efficiencies.

在機構證券領域，固定收益受益於宏觀經濟的發展，而在財富管理領域，我們繼續吸引強勁的淨新資產，突顯了以建議為導向的模式和各種背景的好處。該公司年初至今的效率比為 72%。不包括與整合相關的費用，我們年初至今的效率為 71%，確保未來增長仍然是優先事項，我們繼續投資於技術驅動的效率。

And with the abatement of COVID-related restrictions, marketing and business development expenses have progressively normalized as our teams reengage with clients and our colleagues in person. Efficiency remains an important performance objective and we review incremental spend on an ongoing basis.

隨著與 COVID 相關的限制的減少，營銷和業務開發費用逐漸正常化，因為我們的團隊重新與客戶和我們的同事親自接觸。效率仍然是一個重要的績效目標，我們會持續審查增量支出。

Now to the businesses. Institutional Securities revenues were $5.8 billion, down from the robust prior year, but seasonally strong for -- seasonally strong rather, for a seasonally slower quarter relative to historical levels. Strength in fixed income and equities was a counterbalance to muted activity in Investment Banking.

現在到企業。機構證券收入為 58 億美元，低於上一年的強勁表現，但季節性強勁——季節性強勁，相對於歷史水平而言，季節性較慢的季度。固定收益和股票的強勢抵消了投資銀行活動的低迷。

Investment Banking revenues decreased year-over-year to $1.3 billion, with meaningful declines across products, particularly underwriting. Ongoing market volatility continued to weigh on issuance and led clients to delay strategic actions. Advisory revenues were $693 million. Solid results reflected the completion of previously announced strategic transactions. Revenues were down relative to the record prior year and in line with broader M&A market volumes.

投資銀行業務收入同比下降至 13 億美元，產品的顯著下降，尤其是承保。持續的市場波動繼續對發行構成壓力，並導致客戶推遲戰略行動。諮詢收入為 6.93 億美元。穩健的業績反映了先前宣布的戰略交易的完成。收入相對於前一年的創紀錄水平有所下降，並且與更廣泛的併購市場量一致。

Equity underwriting revenues were $218 million, with year-over-year declines across products, reflecting the overall volatility in global equity markets. Fixed income underwriting revenues were $366 million. Investment grade issuance fared better. Issuers took advantage of favorable windows, and investors demonstrated selectivity in a more challenging market.

股票承銷收入為 2.18 億美元，各產品同比下降，反映了全球股票市場的整體波動。固定收益承保收入為 3.66 億美元。投資級發行表現較好。發行人利用了有利的窗口，投資者在更具挑戰性的市場中表現出選擇性。

We remain engaged with clients, and strategic dialogues are active across multiple industry groups. The eventual conversion to [announcement] is dependent on clarity around macroeconomic conditions, including inflation, growth and geopolitics as well as the stabilization of valuation. Equity revenues were $2.5 billion. The business performed well against the backdrop of equity market declines and volatility.

我們繼續與客戶保持聯繫，並且戰略對話在多個行業群體中都很活躍。最終轉換為 [公告] 取決於宏觀經濟狀況的明確性，包括通貨膨脹、增長和地緣政治以及估值的穩定。股票收入為 25 億美元。在股市下跌和波動的背景下，該業務表現良好。

Prime brokerage revenues decreased from last year. Results were impacted by lower average balances reflective of client deleveraging, which was partially offset by the mix of client balances. Cash and derivative results declined versus the prior year as client activity moderated. Fixed income revenues of $2.2 billion represented the highest third quarter in over a decade, driven by strength across the macro complex.

大宗經紀業務收入較去年有所下降。結果受到反映客戶去槓桿化的較低平均餘額的影響，這部分被客戶餘額組合所抵消。由於客戶活動放緩，現金和衍生品業績較上年有所下降。 22 億美元的固定收益收入是十多年來第三季度的最高水平，這得益於整個宏觀綜合體的實力。

Macro revenues increased meaningfully versus the prior period. Inflationary pressure as well as central bank and fiscal activity drove volatility higher. By extension, changes in portfolios supported client engagement and increased flow trading activity, benefiting rates and foreign exchange.

宏觀收入與上一時期相比顯著增加。通脹壓力以及央行和財政活動推高了波動性。通過擴展，投資組合的變化支持客戶參與並增加流量交易活動，受益率和外匯。

Micro revenues were in line with the prior year. Revenues favored the Americas more in the current period. Other revenues declined from the prior year and reflected a loss of $100 million. Mark-to-market losses on event and relationship loans, net of hedges and movements in revenues related to deferred cash-based compensation contributed to the decrease.

微收入與上年持平。在當前期間，收入更青睞美洲。其他收入較上年有所下降，虧損 1 億美元。事件和關係貸款的按市值計價損失（扣除對沖和與遞延現金補償相關的收入變動）是造成下降的原因。

Turning to Wealth Management. The business continues to deliver strong results despite the economic uncertainty. Revenues increased from the prior year to a robust $6.1 billion as we continue to grow the more stable parts of our firm. The rising rate environment supported net interest income, more than offsetting the lower asset management and transactional revenues.

轉向財富管理。儘管存在經濟不確定性，該業務仍繼續取得強勁業績。隨著我們繼續發展我們公司更穩定的部分，收入比上一年增長到強勁的 61 億美元。利率上升的環境支持了淨利息收入，抵消了較低的資產管理和交易收入。

Pretax profit was $1.6 billion, and the PBT margin was 26.9%. Excluding integration-related expenses, the PBT margin reached 28.4%, underscoring the resiliency of this business against the backdrop of declining asset values. Total net new assets were $65 billion in the quarter, bringing year-to-date net new assets to $260 billion.

稅前利潤為 16 億美元，PBT 利潤率為 26.9%。剔除與整合相關的費用，PBT 利潤率達到 28.4%，凸顯了該業務在資產價值下降的背景下的彈性。本季度淨新資產總額為 650 億美元，使年初至今的淨新資產達到 2600 億美元。

Asset consolidation from existing clients, net new clients, workplace relationships and positive net recruiting were all sources of strength. The growth of net new assets highlights the value of trusted advice, especially through periods of market uncertainty. Our platform continues to attract advisers who recognize the integral role of the Wealth Management business at the firm, and the value advisers gain by leveraging our technology and our products to best serve their clients.

現有客戶的資產整合、淨新客戶、工作場所關係和積極的淨招聘都是力量的來源。淨新資產的增長凸顯了值得信賴的建議的價值，尤其是在市場不確定時期。我們的平台繼續吸引那些認識到財富管理業務在公司中不可或缺的角色的顧問，以及通過利用我們的技術和產品為客戶提供最佳服務而獲得的價值顧問。

Transactional revenues of $616 million declined from the prior period due to lower retail engagement and the impact of movements in revenues related to deferred compensation plans. Asset management revenues of $3.4 billion primarily reflected lower market levels. Fee-based flows were $17 billion, moderating from the robust levels seen in recent quarters, suggesting retail hesitancy to invest in managed products in uncertain markets.

由於零售參與度下降以及與遞延薪酬計劃相關的收入變動的影響，交易收入為 6.16 億美元，較上一期有所下降。 34 億美元的資產管理收入主要反映了較低的市場水平。基於費用的流量為 170 億美元，較最近幾個季度的強勁水平有所放緩，這表明零售業對在不確定的市場中投資管理產品猶豫不決。

Bank lending balances grew to $146 billion. And on a year-to-date basis, balances have grown by $16 billion -- on a year-to-date basis -- rather, this quarter, balances have grown by $16 billion. The pace of loan growth slowed this quarter on the back of paydowns in securities-based lending and moderating mortgage growth. Total deposits declined by 2% in the quarter to $332 billion.

銀行貸款餘額增至 1460 億美元。從年初至今，餘額增長了 160 億美元——在年初至今的基礎上——相反，本季度，餘額增長了 160 億美元。由於基於證券的貸款償還和抵押貸款增長放緩，本季度貸款增長速度放緩。本季度存款總額下降 2% 至 3,320 億美元。

There was a shift in mix to higher-yielding saving products as our expanded bank offering attracted clients' investable cash. Net interest income was $2 billion, up nearly 50% from the prior year. In this accelerated rate hike cycle, we have outperformed our modeled beta across our deposit portfolio, which has more than offset the changing mix of our deposit base.

由於我們擴大的銀行產品吸引了客戶的可投資現金，因此組合轉向了更高收益的儲蓄產品。淨利息收入為 20 億美元，比上年增長近 50%。在這個加速加息週期中，我們在存款組合中的表現優於我們的模型貝塔，這足以抵消我們存款基礎組合的變化。

Through the end of the year, we would expect NII to remain broadly in line with the guidance provided last quarter, noting that some of the rate benefit was pulled forward into the third quarter. Despite this period of heightened uncertainty and volatility, we achieved consistent growth in Wealth Management. We continue to deliver strong net new assets and demonstrate economies of scale with considerable growth opportunities ahead.

到今年年底，我們預計 NII 將與上季度提供的指引大體保持一致，並指出部分利率優惠被提前至第三季度。儘管這段時期的不確定性和波動性加劇，但我們在財富管理方面實現了持續增長。我們將繼續提供強勁的淨新資產，並展示規模經濟和巨大的增長機會。

Turning to Investment Management. Revenues of $1.2 billion declined from the prior period, substantially driven by lower asset values as well as the impact of outflows over the last year. Total AUM ended at $1.3 trillion. Long-term flows were approximately $2 billion. While equity strategies continue to see outflows, the pace has moderated from recent quarters.

轉向投資管理。由於資產價值下降以及去年資金外流的影響，收入較上一期下降了 12 億美元。總資產管理規模為 1.3 萬億美元。長期流量約為 20 億美元。儘管股票策略繼續出現資金外流，但速度較最近幾個季度有所放緩。

Interest rate volatility negatively impacted fixed income flows. However, our broadened portfolio also delivered offsets. Inflows of $7 billion into our alternative and solutions platform were led by continued demand for Parametric customized portfolios and our direct indexing and tax-efficient investing capabilities as well as continued demand for private credit.

利率波動對固定收益流動產生負面影響。然而，我們擴大的投資組合也提供了抵消。 70 億美元流入我們的替代方案和解決方案平台的原因是對參數定制投資組合的持續需求、我們的直接索引和節稅投資能力以及對私人信貸的持續需求。

Liquidity and overlay services had outflows of $32 billion. Clients likely relocated money market holdings to alternative risk-free assets. Asset management and related fees were $1.3 billion. The impact of lower average AUM led to the year-over-year decline. Performance-based income and other revenues were a net loss of $101 million, primarily driven by the markdown of a single underlying public investment in one of our Asia private equity funds.

流動性和覆蓋服務流出了 320 億美元。客戶可能會將貨幣市場資產轉移到其他無風險資產。資產管理及相關費用為 13 億美元。較低的平均 AUM 的影響導致同比下降。基於業績的收入和其他收入淨虧損 1.01 億美元，主要是由於我們對亞洲私募股權基金的一項基礎公共投資的減價。

Investments in the business and the integration of Eaton Vance continue to progress well. We are investing in products and vehicles that will allow us to deliver solutions to a broader set of clients. Our strategic focus on secular growth areas such as alternatives and direct indexing, supported by our ability to globally distribute products, positions us well to perform through the cycle.

對業務的投資和伊頓萬斯的整合繼續取得良好進展。我們正在投資產品和車輛，使我們能夠為更廣泛的客戶提供解決方案。我們對替代品和直接指數等長期增長領域的戰略重點，在我們全球分銷產品的能力的支持下，使我們在整個週期中表現良好。

Turning to the balance sheet. Standardized RWAs were relatively flat, ending the quarter at $460 billion. Prudent management of resources was partially offset by an increase due to market volatility. During the third quarter, we also bought back $2.6 billion of stock, taking advantage of our current valuation and utilizing the flexibility of our repurchase authorization.

轉向資產負債表。標準化風險加權資產相對持平，本季度末為 4600 億美元。因市場波動而增加的資源部分抵消了審慎的資源管理。在第三季度，我們還利用我們目前的估值和回購授權的靈活性回購了 26 億美元的股票。

OCI related to our available-for-sale securities portfolio reflected unrealized losses of $1.3 billion. While this should be earned back over time, it reduced our CET1 ratio by approximately 30 basis points in the quarter. Our standardized CET1 ratio was 14.8%, approximately 150 basis points above our regulatory requirement inclusive of buffers as of October 1.

與我們的可供出售證券組合相關的 OCI 反映了 13 億美元的未實現虧損。雖然這應該隨著時間的推移而收回，但它在本季度將我們的 CET1 比率降低了約 30 個基點。截至 10 月 1 日，我們的標準化 CET1 比率為 14.8%，比我們的監管要求（包括緩衝）高出約 150 個基點。

Capital remains critical to our strategy, particularly in this rapidly evolving backdrop. Our tax rate was 21.4% for the quarter, down from the third quarter of last year, primarily driven by the realization of certain tax benefits. We now expect that our full year '22 tax rate will be approximately 22%.

資本對我們的戰略仍然至關重要，尤其是在這種快速發展的背景下。本季度我們的稅率為 21.4%，低於去年第三季度，主要是由於實現了某些稅收優惠。我們現在預計我們的 22 年全年稅率將約為 22%。

Looking ahead, the broader economic outlook remains uncertain. While we cannot be sure how the market dynamics will play out, we remain confident in our strategy, particularly our ability to aggregate client assets in Wealth Management, support our Institutional clients and deliver diversified solutions in Investment Management, all while prudently managing our capital profile and focusing on our strategic goals. With that, we will now open up the line to questions.

展望未來，更廣泛的經濟前景仍不明朗。雖然我們無法確定市場動態將如何發展，但我們仍然對我們的戰略充滿信心，尤其是我們在財富管理方面整合客戶資產、支持我們的機構客戶並在投資管理方面提供多元化解決方案的能力，同時審慎管理我們的資本狀況並專注於我們的戰略目標。有了這個，我們現在將打開問題線。

(Operator Instructions) We'll go first to Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們將首先從美國銀行前往 Ebrahim Poonawala。

So James, you alluded to a lot of cross currents. I fully appreciate that. I think -- from your shareholders' perspective, I think why folks own Morgan Stanley is some degree of confidence on the superior ROE, defensibility of that ROE. Just talk to us as you think about -- I mean, we've already seen a ton of market volatility.

所以詹姆斯，你提到了很多交叉流。我非常欣賞這一點。我認為 - 從您的股東的角度來看，我認為為什麼人們擁有摩根士丹利是對卓越的 ROE 以及該 ROE 的防禦性的某種程度的信心。只要你想的就和我們談談——我的意思是，我們已經看到了大量的市場波動。

As we look forward, your confidence where return on tangible equity, 15%, 16%, how defensible do you think that is -- and understanding the quarter-to-quarter volatility, but how defensible do you think that is? And remind us about the synergies from Eaton Vance, E*TRADE, et cetera, that we should be mindful of when we think about Morgan Stanley's growth relative to what happens to the market.

展望未來，您對有形資產回報率 15%、16% 的信心，您認為這有多合理——以及了解季度間波動性，但您認為這有多合理？並提醒我們伊頓萬斯、E*TRADE 等的協同作用，當我們考慮摩根士丹利相對於市場發生的情況的增長時，我們應該注意這一點。

Great. Well, that's a good broad question to kick it off. I would say, first of all, we're thrilled with the deals we did with E*TRADE and Eaton Vance. I mean both worked better than expectations. In Eaton Vance, for example, the gem that is Parametric is just the gift that keeps giving. E*TRADE with the deposits that we brought over through that deal, what we've done with the stock plan businesses, now combined with ours, 35% of [the S&P] companies.

偉大的。好吧，這是一個很好的廣泛問題。我想說，首先，我們對與 E*TRADE 和 Eaton Vance 達成的交易感到非常興奮。我的意思是兩者都比預期的要好。例如，在伊頓萬斯，參數化的寶石只是不斷給予的禮物。 E*TRADE 與我們通過該交易帶來的存款，我們對股票計劃業務所做的事情，現在與我們 35% 的 [標準普爾] 公司合併。

And obviously, having a digital banking platform, I've often described E*TRADE, it's a technology company, and we bought a lot of technology with that. So just on those 2 things, thrilled with it. In terms of the overall environment and how we play in that environment, maybe I'll just touch on the environment for a minute. It shouldn't be surprising, what's going on in the markets. I'm kind of surprised every time I see somebody on TV who seems surprised by it.

顯然，擁有一個數字銀行平台，我經常描述 E*TRADE，它是一家技術公司，我們用它購買了很多技術。所以就在這兩件事上，對它感到興奮。就整體環境以及我們在那個環境中的比賽方式而言，也許我會稍微談談環境。市場上正在發生的事情並不奇怪。每次我在電視上看到有人對此感到驚訝時，我都會感到驚訝。

We had zero interest rates for a decade. We have massive monetary and fiscal stimulus. We have the first land war in Europe in 70 years, the highest inflation in 40 years, and the Fed had to move. Now my opinion was they moved late, but they moved, and they're going to keep moving. And rates are now around 3%. They're probably going to go mid-4s, but that remains to be determined. And with that, there will be consequences. So far, we haven't seen clarity around inflation abating. My guess is that we will see that clarity and it will be more evident certainly by the middle of next year.

我們有十年的零利率。我們有大規模的貨幣和財政刺激措施。我們有 70 年來歐洲的第一次陸戰，40 年來最高的通貨膨脹，美聯儲不得不採取行動。現在我的看法是他們搬家晚了，但他們搬家了，而且他們會繼續搬家。利率現在約為 3%。他們可能會進入4s中期，但這仍有待確定。有了這個，就會有後果。到目前為止，我們還沒有看到通脹減弱的明確性。我的猜測是，我們將看到這種清晰性，而且到明年年中肯定會更加明顯。

And I think the Fed will be successful in this journey, but that's a gut from all the numbers I'm looking at, but it doesn't mean I'm going to be right. The world obviously remains volatile. You're going to see some disruption. We're seeing it. Some of the more ridiculous stuff that's been in the market in the last few years, companies trading at 50x revenues, what's gone on with Bitcoin trading at $60,000, some of the -- what's going on in some of the GameStop and other companies where there's been these sort of aberration-type trading.

我認為美聯儲將在這一旅程中取得成功，但這是我所看到的所有數字的直覺，但這並不意味著我會是對的。世界顯然仍然動盪不安。你會看到一些干擾。我們看到了。過去幾年市場上出現的一些更荒謬的東西，公司以 50 倍的收入交易，比特幣的交易價格為 60,000 美元，其中一些 - 一些 GameStop 和其他公司正在發生什麼一直是這種異常類型的交易。

I mean that's been washed out, and that's okay. We're back to sort of fundamentals. So how does Morgan Stanley play in that? Investment Management, obviously, gets hurt when fees are down because asset prices are down, but I'm not -- I don't think we're in a long-term financial depreciation, so I'm not particularly concerned about that. As I've said, the banking pipeline and underwriting gets deferred.

我的意思是它已經被洗掉了，沒關係。我們回到某種基本面。那麼摩根士丹利是如何參與其中的呢？顯然，由於資產價格下跌，當費用下跌時，投資管理會受到傷害，但我沒有——我不認為我們處於長期的財務貶值中，所以我並不特別擔心這一點。正如我所說，銀行管道和承保被推遲。

People don't stop doing deals. In fact, there was a deal announced this morning. And there'll be much more deals as we get closer to economic clarity. Our Sales & Trading businesses remain robust. We are holding share in those. I feel very good about that. And a lot of that business is actually repeatable. If you think of Prime Brokerage, it's actually very stable.

人們不會停止做交易。事實上，今天早上宣布了一項交易。隨著我們越來越接近經濟明朗，將會有更多的交易。我們的銷售和貿易業務依然強勁。我們持有這些股份。我對此感覺很好。而且很多業務實際上是可重複的。如果您想到大宗經紀業務，它實際上非常穩定。

And with Wealth Management, we brought in $65 billion of new money in one of the most difficult quarters that we've had in 15 years. I mean, that would have been unthinkable even 2 years ago. So the fact our clients are continuing to bring us money and the funnel of all the ways the money comes in the door is working, it's not -- that's not an accident.

通過財富管理，我們在 15 年來最困難的季度之一帶來了 650 億美元的新資金。我的意思是，即使在 2 年前，這也是不可想像的。因此，我們的客戶繼續為我們帶來資金，而且資金流入的所有方式都在發揮作用，這不是——這不是偶然的。

That's a business model design. So I'm really happy with the way that's working out. So in aggregate, honestly, I'm pretty relaxed. I mean, our CET1 around 14.8%. We're required to have 13.3%, I think. And I don't know if that answers your question. We could probably spend all day talking about it. The environment is difficult, but we are not under stress.

這就是商業模式設計。因此，我對這種工作方式感到非常滿意。所以總的來說，老實說，我很放鬆。我的意思是，我們的 CET1 約為 14.8%。我認為我們需要有 13.3%。我不知道這是否回答了你的問題。我們可能會花一整天的時間談論它。環境艱苦，但我們沒有壓力。

No, it did. And just 1 quick follow-up to that. At the same time, you've shown a tendency to lean and be opportunistic, Eaton Vance, E*TRADE. A lot of disruption among your peers, both here in Europe. Any -- like how do you think about just Morgan Stanley leaning in to actually gain share in this backdrop?

不，確實如此。只需 1 次快速跟進。同時，你已經表現出傾向和機會主義，伊頓萬斯，E*TRADE。你的同行之間有很多干擾，在歐洲都是如此。任何——比如你如何看待摩根士丹利在這種背景下真正獲得份額？

Well, I think you've got to keep investing. And we are not making major cutbacks across the plant. I mean I'm sure Sharon will talk about expenses in a minute. We're obviously being prudent. But -- we don't see any reason for great draconian measures. We've built a business model, and in times like this is when, if you can sustain it, you actually do very well coming out the other side. So I feel pretty good about our relative position, to be honest.

好吧，我認為你必須繼續投資。而且我們並沒有在整個工廠進行重大削減。我的意思是我相信莎倫會在一分鐘內談論費用。我們顯然是謹慎的。但是——我們看不出採取嚴厲措施的任何理由。我們已經建立了一個商業模式，在這種情況下，如果你能維持它，你實際上會很好地走出另一邊。所以說實話，我對我們的相對位置感覺很好。

We'll take our next question from Christian Bolu with Autonomous.

我們將用 Autonomous 回答 Christian Bolu 的下一個問題。

Maybe, Sharon, on the deposits, I hear your comments on deposit mix shift but sweep deposits were down, I think, 18% Q-on-Q, which I think is the worst decline by a significant margin. So I'm a little surprised that you said deposit beta expectations -- deposit beta is in line with expectations. I guess my question is how are you now thinking about your guide for 50% terminal deposits beta. Is that still realistic given the Fed is still hiking and obviously the pace here of sweep deposit decline?

也許，Sharon，關於存款，我聽到你對存款組合轉變的評論，但掃除存款下降了，我認為，環比下降了 18%，我認為這是大幅下降的最嚴重的一次。所以我有點驚訝你說存款貝塔預期——存款貝塔符合預期。我想我的問題是您現在如何考慮您的 50% 終端存款測試版指南。考慮到美聯儲仍在加息，而且很明顯存款下降的步伐，這仍然現實嗎？

Sure. So let me just take them and separate them a little. So the change that you saw in mix of deposits, you actually -- what we saw is we have -- I would label it as transactional cash and investable cash. The transactional cash is the sweep deposits that you're talking about. And as James said, with the expanded offering, which was also aided by E*TRADE, we have more diversified products than we've ever had before.

當然。所以讓我把它們分開一點。所以你在存款組合中看到的變化，你實際上 - 我們看到的是我們擁有 - 我會將其標記為交易現金和可投資現金。交易現金是您所說的掃除存款。正如詹姆斯所說，在 E*TRADE 的幫助下，通過擴大產品範圍，我們擁有比以往任何時候都更加多樣化的產品。

And in fact, what we've seen is the savings account that we offer is those other deposits is where those -- that investable cash is going when it's new to the bank. So from the aggregate standpoint, Morgan Stanley actually has the vast majority of its deposits is coming from the Wealth Management system. This is important when you compare it to the last period that you're talking about because that actually wasn't the case.

事實上，我們所看到的是我們提供的儲蓄賬戶是那些其他存款的地方——當對銀行來說是新的可投資現金時，它的去向。所以從總體的角度來看，摩根士丹利實際上有絕大多數存款來自財富管理系統。當您將其與您談論的上一個時期進行比較時，這一點很重要，因為實際上並非如此。

So we had sweep deposits. We had some savings in CDs, but a big chunk of that was actually wholesale deposits that was coming from outside. So what James has said, with us being able to attract these new assets, these are new assets that are sitting at Morgan Stanley that over time can be deployed as you think about either different investment opportunities or different transactional opportunities.

所以我們有大量的存款。我們在 CD 上有一些儲蓄，但其中很大一部分實際上是來自外部的批發存款。所以詹姆斯所說的，我們能夠吸引這些新資產，這些是摩根士丹利的新資產，隨著時間的推移，你可以在考慮不同的投資機會或不同的交易機會時進行部署。

As it relates to deposit beta, we are outperforming the deposit beta that we've modeled, which is where that NII is still coming from. So NII, as you know, Christian, is going to be made of 3 different things. The deposit beta, the actual deposit mix and then loan growth. And taken together, that's still propelling NII to where it was this quarter.

由於它與存款貝塔有關，我們的表現優於我們建模的存款貝塔，這也是 NII 的來源。所以，正如你所知，Christian，NII 將由 3 種不同的東西組成。存款貝塔，實際存款組合，然後是貸款增長。總而言之，這仍在推動 NII 達到本季度的水平。

Okay. Maybe on just leverage lending and the bridge book. Can you speak to your balance sheet risk appetite? You guys seem to be on a number of sort of like hung deals, Citrix, Twitter, et cetera. So first of all, how big is your bridge book or leverage loan book, however you want to characterize it? And then second, are you increasing your risk appetite here to capture opportunities? And then how are you thinking about managing that risk?

好的。也許只是槓桿貸款和過橋書。你能談談你的資產負債表風險偏好嗎？你們似乎有很多類似的掛牌交易，Citrix，Twitter，等等。因此，首先，您的過橋賬簿或槓桿貸款賬簿有多大，但是您想對其進行表徵嗎？其次，您是否在增加風險偏好以抓住機會？然後你是如何考慮管理這種風險的？

So broadly speaking, I'd say we've been extremely prudent in terms of risk management. I think that's most notable actually when you think about our RWAs and just our capital position. So we've been looking at different risk-based metrics really over time and bringing them down over the course of the year. So that's, for the entire institution, just knowing that we've entered into what feels like a more volatile period. And as you think about those different relationships and event net of hedges, over the course of this quarter, they actually were quite modest marks, given the environment.

從廣義上講，我想說我們在風險管理方面非常謹慎。我認為當你考慮我們的風險加權資產和我們的資本狀況時，這實際上是最值得注意的。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們一直在研究不同的基於風險的指標，並在一年中將它們降低。因此，對於整個機構來說，只要知道我們已經進入了一個感覺更加動蕩的時期。當您考慮這些不同的關係和對沖事件後，在本季度的過程中，考慮到環境，它們實際上是相當溫和的標記。

We'll go next to Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

我們將與 Evercore 一起前往 Glenn Schorr。

So maybe a follow-up on the deposit conversation. I'm curious. You have these expanded offerings. You have the preferred savings accounts. How do you monitor and how do you guide client behavior? And is the goal at all costs, keep deposits in-house, even if the cost of those deposits is a lot higher than sitting in a brokerage account? I'm just curious on the how to.

所以也許是存款談話的後續行動。我很好奇。你有這些擴展的產品。您有首選的儲蓄賬戶。您如何監控以及如何指導客戶行為？目標是不惜一切代價將存款保留在內部，即使這些存款的成本遠高於坐在經紀賬戶中的成本？我只是好奇怎麼做。

The intention, of course, is to give the clients opportunities and choice, Glenn, as you know, which has been our position over the course of the last God knows how long. But the intention is to give them as many offerings as possible. And yes, as you said, if we can bring those assets in and give them an opportunity to have a savings account or we can issue CDs or as you've always talked about, we have other types of things such as alternatives.

目的，當然，是給客戶機會和選擇，格倫，如你所知，這一直是我們在過去天知道多久的過程中的立場。但目的是為他們提供盡可能多的產品。是的，正如您所說，如果我們可以將這些資產帶入並讓他們有機會擁有一個儲蓄賬戶，或者我們可以發行 CD，或者正如您一直談到的那樣，我們還有其他類型的東西，例如替代品。

What it does is it brings those assets in-house, and then in a point where they want to be deployed into the marketplace, we can do that. As it relates to what we might necessarily give to different deposits, it would be, of course, again, related to those transactional versus investable cash.

它所做的是將這些資產帶入內部，然後在它們想要部署到市場的某個點上，我們可以做到這一點。由於它與我們可能必須給予不同的存款有關，因此它當然再次與那些交易現金和可投資現金有關。

Maybe staying on wealth, the -- you've been very successful at growing your securities-based loan book. I think of those as extremely low risk to Morgan Stanley, but they're backed by securities, and securities of all types have fallen a lot. So I'm curious if you can comment on how big is the book? Will it still grow? And how are you managing the whole margin call situation, just to get a mark-to-market on that. That would be great.

也許保持財富，你已經非常成功地增加了基於證券的貸款賬簿。我認為這些對摩根士丹利來說風險極低，但它們有證券支持，所有類型的證券都下跌了很多。所以我很好奇你是否可以評論這本書有多大？還會長嗎？您如何管理整個追加保證金通知的情況，只是為了獲得按市值計價的情況。那很好啊。

Sure. So we have seen a pay down specifically this quarter, so just in terms of the actual book. But in terms of the risk, which you highlight, we've always said it's really more of an operational risk than anything else. We have obviously seen margin calls, and they've all been handled very well over the course of the quarter. So we haven't seen any issues there.

當然。因此，我們已經看到本季度特別支付了一筆款項，因此僅就實際賬面而言。但就您所強調的風險而言，我們一直說這實際上比其他任何事情都更像是一種操作風險。我們顯然已經看到了追加保證金通知，並且在本季度的整個過程中都得到了很好的處理。所以我們在那裡沒有看到任何問題。

And in addition to that, I think when you look at the LTVs, what we noticed when we have those -- we obviously look at that data internally. And it is very much in line with the longer-dated historical average. And for this quarter, it was over the course of the quarter, on average, was in line with last quarter as well. So I think that book remains very well managed, means a great opportunity and option for our client base. And of course, it will just be dependent on the environment itself.

除此之外，我認為當您查看 LTV 時，當我們擁有這些時我們注意到了什麼——我們顯然會在內部查看這些數據。這與較長期的歷史平均水平非常吻合。對於本季度，平均而言，在本季度的整個過程中，也與上一季度持平。所以我認為這本書管理得很好，對我們的客戶群來說是一個很好的機會和選擇。當然，它只取決於環境本身。

We'll go next to Brennan Hawken with UBS.

我們將與瑞銀一起去布倫南霍肯旁邊。

I'd like to drill in a little bit, Sharon, to the comments that you made around deposit betas and deposits and what's been changing in the mix for you all. That all makes a lot of sense. I think that there's clear benefits to having deposits much more oriented to the Wealth Management business and it helps to watch that mix between the sweep and other.

Sharon，我想深入了解一下您對存款測試和存款所做的評論，以及對你們所有人來說組合發生了什麼變化。這一切都很有意義。我認為將存款更多地用於財富管理業務有明顯的好處，它有助於觀察掃蕩和其他業務之間的混合。

But the idea that the NII guide is essentially unchanged and you had $250 million growth quarter-over-quarter, that suggests that basically NII is going to be flat into 4Q. So -- is that -- have we hit -- given the dynamics, given you have wealthier clients and you have more of their cash, and so you -- there's -- if you want to keep that funding which is, of course, more attractive than wholesale, then you're going to have to pay for it in those savings accounts.

但是，NII 指南基本上沒有變化，並且環比增長 2.5 億美元，這表明 NII 基本上將在第四季度持平。所以 - 是 - 我們擊中了 - 考慮到動態，考慮到你有更富有的客戶，你有更多的現金，所以你 - 有 - 如果你想保留這筆資金，當然，比批發更有吸引力，那麼你將不得不在那些儲蓄賬戶中支付它。

And so therefore, is it just -- and with loan growth slowing, is it just right to just assume that, okay, this is probably like the stable level of NII for at least the foreseeable future as we head into 2023? Or will we hit a point where you'll be able to continue to see -- resume some growth, and we've just entered this transition period. How should we think about it a little bit longer term?

因此，是否只是 - 隨著貸款增長放緩，是否可以假設，好吧，至少在我們進入 2023 年的可預見的未來，這可能是 NII 的穩定水平？或者我們是否會達到您能夠繼續看到的點 - 恢復一些增長，我們剛剛進入這個過渡期。從長遠來看，我們應該如何看待它？

Yes. I think -- I mean the truth is, I think we'll have to see, right? So you're right in your assumption that that's basically what it implies in terms of the quarter-over-quarter for NII. Obviously, we haven't given 2023 guidance yet. And the reason, I mean, aside from the fact that we generally give guidance in January, but aside from that, the guidance would obviously also take into play what is actually happening with the deposit mix.

是的。我認為 - 我的意思是事實是，我認為我們必須看到，對吧？因此，您的假設是正確的，這基本上就是 NII 的季度環比所暗示的。顯然，我們還沒有給出 2023 年的指導。原因，我的意思是，除了我們通常在一月份給出指導之外，除此之外，該指導顯然也會影響存款組合的實際情況。

And I do think that this is -- obviously, is an accelerated rate hike cycle. The deposit behavior is still playing out, but the intention here is really to make sure that we have these deposits in-house, and they will continue to be deployed into the marketplace over time. So that's the balance that one is trying to achieve when you think about that deposit mix and what we're actually doing from a great bank and growth perspective.

而且我確實認為這顯然是一個加速的加息週期。存款行為仍在發揮作用，但這裡的目的實際上是確保我們在內部擁有這些存款，並且隨著時間的推移它們將繼續被部署到市場中。因此，當您考慮存款組合以及我們從一個偉大的銀行和增長的角度實際所做的事情時，這就是人們試圖實現的平衡。

On the loan side, I think that, again, where you see the positivity is these are environmental factors, right? So when you think of household penetration from our FAs into different mortgage and lending products, those things continue to rise. So what you're focused on, which is completely fair, is really going to be dependent largely on the environment itself, how quickly you see rates move and then how you see deposit behavior play out over time.

在貸款方面，我認為，再一次，你看到積極性的地方是這些都是環境因素，對吧？因此，當您考慮從我們的 FA 對不同抵押貸款和貸款產品的家庭滲透時，這些事情會繼續上升。因此，您關注的是完全公平的，實際上將在很大程度上取決於環境本身，您看到利率變動的速度以及您如何看待存款行為隨著時間的推移而發生的變化。

Okay. That is all totally fair. Second question would be on the LevFin book. There's definitely some increased focus there. You referenced some marks through the Institutional business on the other line. which wasn't that surprising given the environment.

好的。這完全是公平的。第二個問題是關於 LevFin 的書。那里肯定有一些增加的焦點。您通過另一行的機構業務引用了一些標記。考慮到環境，這並不奇怪。

But how are you thinking about managing those risks? There still is some inventory that the Street broadly is going to need to work through and investor appetite has been weak. And so how have you hedged that book? How should we be thinking about those risks going forward? And how are you continuing to manage it?

但是您如何考慮管理這些風險？華爾街仍然需要解決一些庫存問題，而且投資者的胃口一直很弱。那麼你是如何對沖那本書的呢？我們應該如何考慮未來的這些風險？您如何繼續管理它？

Clearly, prudent disciplined risk management. And I think that the marks that you've seen so far underscores and underlines that. I think that the other point that I would just mention, as we think about the outlook perspective, what you saw over the course of the third quarter was that the market and issuers and others are very opportunistic as it relates to windows, and it's a window-specific driven market.

顯然，審慎有紀律的風險管理。我認為你們迄今為止看到的標記強調並強調了這一點。我認為我要提到的另一點，當我們考慮前景時，你在第三季度看到的是市場和發行人以及其他人在涉及窗口時非常投機，這是一個特定窗口驅動的市場。

And so when you do see positive windows, and we saw it in August, and we saw in early September, you do see movement. And so one is watching that calendar as you think through that, and I think we're looking for those market receptivities and for those favorable windows.

因此，當您確實看到積極的窗口時，我們在 8 月看到了，我們在 9 月初看到了，您確實看到了運動。因此，當您仔細考慮這一點時，人們正在關注該日曆，我認為我們正在尋找那些市場接受度和那些有利的窗口。

I'd just add to it. I mean, there's obviously been a lot of talk about this here in a couple of names in particular, and we can't talk about individual names as much as I'm sure you'd all like us to. By the way, they're not hung deals until they're actually out there. But put that aside. About a year ago, a little over a year ago, we turned quite conservative, Brennan.

我只是添加它。我的意思是，這裡顯然有很多關於這個的討論，特別是幾個名字，我們不能像我相信你們都希望我們那樣談論個人名字。順便說一句，在他們真正出現之前，他們不會掛起交易。但把它放在一邊。大約一年前，一年多以前，我們變得相當保守，布倫南。

We crossed across the whole plant. We pulled in a little bit. And we pulled in with our margin book, particularly our Asia margin book. We looked across our whole prime brokerage platform, and we pulled in a little bit with certain clients there. And we've been quite cautious in our leverage finance arena. And somebody mentioned one transaction, Citrix. We're actually a small player in that.

我們穿過了整個工廠。我們拉了一點。我們的保證金賬簿，特別是我們的亞洲保證金賬簿。我們查看了整個大宗經紀平台，並與那裡的某些客戶進行了一些合作。我們在槓桿融資領域一直非常謹慎。有人提到了一項交易，思傑。我們實際上是其中的一個小玩家。

So we're not -- it's not like we've been large in this space, which might account for the fact -- in the other line, which is -- incorporates a bunch of things, including loan losses, (inaudible) is very modest. I think it was like negative 100. And there are a few pluses in there and minuses, but the aggregate picture is not that -- frankly, it's just not that troubling.

所以我們不是——這不像我們在這個領域一直很大，這可能解釋了這樣一個事實——在另一方面，它是——包含了很多事情，包括貸款損失，（聽不清）是非常謙虛。我認為這就像負 100。那裡有一些優點和缺點，但總體情況並非如此 - 坦率地說，這並不是那麼令人不安。

We'll remain cautious, as I said in my sort of opening comments, particularly in credit-sensitive areas. We're a big institution. We serve a lot of clients. You don't get this perfect, but I feel actually pretty good about the way we've navigated this so far. So stay tuned to it.

正如我在開場白中所說，我們將保持謹慎，尤其是在信貸敏感領域。我們是一個大機構。我們為很多客戶提供服務。你沒有得到這個完美，但我對我們到目前為止的導航方式感覺非常好。所以請繼續關注它。

We'll go next to Dan Fannon with Jefferies.

我們將和傑富瑞一起去丹·範農旁邊。

I wanted to follow up on the wealth side in terms of organic growth. The fee-based growth did slow a bit. And I think, Sharon, you mentioned some decision-making maybe being a little bit more challenged or slow down in this type of backdrop.

我想在有機增長方面跟進財富方面的問題。以收費為基礎的增長確實有所放緩。我認為，Sharon，你提到在這種背景下，一些決策可能會面臨更多挑戰或放慢速度。

But maybe could you just talk more broadly about the channels that you're seeing growth on both the total flows as well as maybe what's -- where the rate of change might be, either the biggest or slowest, whether that's through existing advisers, workplace, in the various funnels that you have out there?

但也許你可以更廣泛地談談你看到的總流量增長的渠道以及可能是什麼——變化率可能是最大的還是最慢的，無論是通過現有的顧問、工作場所，在您擁有的各種渠道中？

Sure. I think that's a really great question because I think it is pretty remarkable to see $65 billion of assets in a quarter such as this one. It is coming from different parts of the funnel. Specifically, though, the advice-based channel is the one aggregating the most at this point in time versus the self-directed itself, which isn't surprising.

當然。我認為這是一個非常好的問題，因為我認為在這樣的一個季度中看到 650 億美元的資產是非常了不起的。它來自漏斗的不同部分。不過，具體來說，基於建議的渠道是目前聚合最多的渠道，而不是自我導向的渠道，這不足為奇。

But what's so interesting about the advice-based channel is it's a, existing and new clients? Yes. But also, we're beginning to see more and more referrals and more and more anecdotes and stories where you actually see the assets that's coming through the advice-based channel is actually coming through different referrals that we might have seen from the actual workplace relationships.

但是，基於建議的渠道的有趣之處在於它是現有客戶還是新客戶？是的。而且，我們開始看到越來越多的推薦以及越來越多的軼事和故事，您實際上會看到通過基於建議的渠道獲得的資產實際上來自我們可能從實際工作場所關係中看到的不同推薦.

And so we've been on a lot of time when you look at workplace and finding a way to, a, provide better content and more content to various employers, specifically in this environment, which is very, very well received. The number 2 sort of point is that when you think about the FA, we've talked a lot about how to match various FAs within the workplace.

因此，當您查看工作場所並尋找一種方法來為各種雇主提供更好的內容和更多內容時，我們已經花費了很多時間，特別是在這種非常非常受歡迎的環境中。第二點是，當您考慮 FA 時，我們已經討論了很多關於如何在工作場所匹配各種 FA。

The more and more referrals and the more and more data we have of who's able to monetize those referrals, the better and better it is. And so we're seeing that continue to pick up. And then from a workplace perspective, we also have integrated various relationship managers that we might have seen with the workplace into the actual FA teams.

推薦越多，我們擁有的關於誰能夠通過這些推薦獲利的數據越多，它就越好。因此，我們看到這種情況繼續上升。然後從工作場所的角度來看，我們還將我們可能在工作場所看到的各種關係經理整合到實際的 FA 團隊中。

All of those things taken together is coming through, from an NNA perspective, the adviser-based channel, but it's clearly a positivity if you sort of think of the rate of change where some of that might be coming from. So I've been very proud of the results on the net new asset side.

從 NNA 的角度來看，所有這些東西加在一起是通過基於顧問的渠道，但如果你考慮一下其中一些可能來自的變化率，這顯然是一種積極的態度。所以我對淨新資產方面的結果感到非常自豪。

Okay. And then just to follow up on expenses. You broadly obviously talked about being focused on efficiency. But is there anything specific you can point to that you're doing differently or thinking about as you start budgeting for next year or even as we go into the fourth quarter from a rate of change that you're focused on?

好的。然後只是跟進費用。你很明顯地談到了專注於效率。但是，當您開始為明年制定預算時，或者甚至在我們從您關注的變化率進入第四季度時，您是否可以指出您正在做不同的事情或正在考慮的具體事項？

Well, I'd say that we've been focused on expenses, well, all year. I mean, we're always focused on expenses, but very much in the spring of this year, we've been taking, and I spoke about it in the last 2 earnings calls, a very hard look at all of the expenses and just continuing to manage them on an individual project level, understanding where all the costs are coming from and also understanding where the growth is coming from.

好吧，我想說我們一直專注於開支，好吧，一整年。我的意思是，我們一直專注於支出，但在今年春天，我們一直在考慮，我在最近兩次財報電話會議上談到了這一點，仔細研究了所有的支出，只是繼續在單個項目級別上管理它們，了解所有成本的來源以及增長的來源。

We're balancing that, of course, with the need to continue to invest, not only on the business side but also continuing to make sure that the infrastructure and controls are there as you think about expanding the business. So it's really around that foundational side where some of those expenses might also be coming through as you think about technology, migration, et cetera.

當然，我們正在平衡這一點，需要繼續投資，不僅在業務方面，而且在您考慮擴展業務時繼續確保基礎設施和控制措施到位。因此，當您考慮技術、遷移等時，其中一些費用也可能會出現在基礎方面。

So it's just -- it's tactical in nature as well as this holistic approach of just making sure that you're very cognizant. But it's certainly part of something that we're thinking through as we look at the budgeting perspective.

所以它只是 - 它本質上是戰術性的，也是這種確保你非常了解的整體方法。但這肯定是我們從預算角度考慮的一部分。

We also -- I mean, obviously, we're looking at headcount. You've got to take into account the rate of growth we've had in the last few years, and we've learned some things through in COVID about how we can operate more efficiently. So that's something that the management team is working on between now and the end of the year. And again, we want to provide growth opportunities across the platform, but we've also identified some efficiencies. So over time, that will become clearer.

我們也 - 我的意思是，顯然，我們正在考慮員工人數。您必須考慮到我們在過去幾年中的增長率，並且我們通過 COVID 學到了一些關於如何更有效地運營的知識。所以這是管理團隊從現在到年底的工作。同樣，我們希望提供跨平台的增長機會，但我們也發現了一些效率。所以隨著時間的推移，這將變得更加清晰。

We'll go next to Devin Ryan with JMP Securities.

我們將與 JMP 證券一起討論 Devin Ryan。

I want to start on fixed income trading. Obviously, revenues have been quite healthy in the volatile rate environment with customers moving around their portfolios, as you guys noted. Been a long time since we've seen these levels of rates.

我想開始固定收益交易。顯然，正如你們所指出的，隨著客戶在他們的投資組合中移動，在波動的利率環境中，收入一直非常健康。自從我們看到這些費率水平以來已經有很長時間了。

So I'm curious how you guys are thinking about what a higher for longer environment looks like for fixed income trading once rates settle in. I'm assuming more movement in yield on an absolute basis could be helpful, but would just be great to get your views from any historical context or just broader expectations.

所以我很好奇你們是如何考慮一旦利率穩定下來，固定收益交易的長期環境會是什麼樣子。我假設在絕對基礎上收益率的更多變動可能會有所幫助，但會很好從任何歷史背景或更廣泛的期望中獲取您的觀點。

Absolutely. It's interesting. I think when we looked at the beginning of this year, and we said, okay, how do you think about the fixed income environment? What stood out isn't just the absolute level of rates but it's also the dispersion of what's going on in different economies. So if you think -- if you go back a decade and you had all rates at zero for every economy and all of a sudden, you've moved to a place where you have divergent views, obviously also driving foreign exchange, for example.

絕對地。這真有趣。我想當我們看到今年年初的時候，我們說，好吧，你如何看待固定收益環境？突出的不僅是利率的絕對水平，而且還在於不同經濟體中正在發生的事情的分散性。因此，如果你想——如果你回到十年前，每個經濟體的所有利率都為零，突然之間，你已經搬到了一個觀點不同的地方，例如，顯然也推動了外匯交易。

So I think all of that taken together is one that we keep looking at. It's clear that should that continue, that's a place where one would expect higher volatility and, therefore, by definition, likely higher client engagement. And so as we go forward, that's clearly something that we're looking at. But that's how I would reflect where the fixed income market is right now versus where it's been, say, 10 years ago.

所以我認為所有這些加在一起是我們一直在關注的。很明顯，如果這種情況繼續下去，人們會預期會有更高的波動性，因此，根據定義，可能會有更高的客戶參與度。因此，當我們繼續前進時，這顯然是我們正在關注的事情。但這就是我如何反映固定收益市場現在的位置與例如 10 年前的位置。

Yes. Okay. Just a quick follow-up here, also just on kind of corporate M&A opportunities. Obviously, evaluations across financials and fintech are down pretty dramatically over the last year. And so I'm curious whether you're seeing more maybe opportunity to merge, maybe [not some] of the things you were looking for, but just more sellers potentially coming to market given some of the challenging macro that we're seeing and also the big change in valuations over the last 9 months to a year.

是的。好的。這裡只是一個快速跟進，也只是關於企業併購機會。顯然，金融和金融科技的評估在去年大幅下降。所以我很好奇你是否看到了更多合併的機會，也許[不是]你正在尋找的一些東西，但是鑑於我們看到的一些具有挑戰性的宏觀環境，可能會有更多的賣家進入市場，並且過去 9 個月到一年的估值也發生了巨大變化。

I mean you're going to see a little bit of a washout in some of the fintech space. I mean this is reality. You've seen companies trading at valuations, which, God, we could only dream of over here in our modest little house. But they're just not reality. And that washes out, you'll see consolidation. A lot of these businesses are scale-driven businesses. We have enormous technology requirements to support cyber and stop client fraud and data control and management and so on.

我的意思是你會在一些金融科技領域看到一點點洗牌。我的意思是這就是現實。你已經看到公司以估值交易，天哪，我們只能在我們簡陋的小房子裡做夢。但它們不是現實。這會消失，你會看到整合。其中很多業務都是規模驅動的業務。我們有巨大的技術需求來支持網絡和阻止客戶欺詐以及數據控制和管理等。

So consolidation is the key word. At these prices, I think the sellers are only there if they need to sell. They're probably holding out for something a little more balanced. And maybe if my projection is right, that's sort of end of next year, so in the fintech space. Generally, consolidation across financial services has been the catchword for a decade, and we've moved aggressively to be at the front of that. And I think that's just reflecting reality scale matters.

所以整合是關鍵詞。以這些價格，我認為賣家只有在需要出售時才會出現。他們可能會堅持一些更平衡的東西。也許如果我的預測是正確的，那就是明年年底，所以在金融科技領域。一般來說，金融服務領域的整合已經成為十年來的流行語，我們已經積極地走在前面。我認為這只是反映了現實規模的重要性。

We'll go next to Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們將與富國銀行證券一起去邁克梅奧旁邊。

First one, just general question. Can you just give more details on your tech spending? How much you're spending, what that's growing, how much is to change the bank? I know I've asked you before about how much of your workload you look to move to the cloud, maybe how many apps you have. Just a little bit more meat on the bones.

第一個，只是一般性問題。您能否提供有關您的技術支出的更多詳細信息？你花了多少錢，增長了什麼，改變銀行多少錢？我知道我之前曾詢問過您希望將多少工作負載遷移到雲端，也許您有多少應用程序。只是骨頭上的肉多一點。

I appreciated the wealth expo that you held in June. I recognize the cost avoidance that you've achieved with the acquisition of E*TRADE, that your backbone is complete, your tech backbone, but these are kind of high-level tech comments that you've made. So any public comments that you can give to put more meat on the bones would be appreciated.

我很欣賞你在六月舉辦的財富博覽會。我承認您通過收購 E*TRADE 實現了成本避免，您的骨幹是完整的，您的技術骨幹，但這些都是您所做的高級技術評論。因此，您可以發表任何公開評論以增加骨頭上的肉，我們將不勝感激。

Why don't I take that, Mike? I think we don't publicly break out tech. And maybe we'll do more of that through next year. But I would say, just to give you some sense of sort of what the focus is, obviously, moving to the cloud was a big deal, and you saw the deals that we did in that. All of the innovation that's taking place in the financial adviser channel, the next best action, the virtual advisers, all of technology, and I think you probably saw some of that, the work we've done around workplace.

為什麼我不接受，邁克？我認為我們不會公開突破技術。也許我們會在明年做更多的事情。但我想說，只是為了讓您了解重點是什麼，顯然，遷移到雲是一件大事，您看到了我們在其中所做的交易。財務顧問佢道中發生的所有創新，下一個最佳行動，虛擬顧問，所有技術，我想你可能已經看到了其中的一些，我們在工作場所所做的工作。

Solium is basically a tech company. E*TRADE is a tech company, building a workplace platform that doesn't revolve around a financial intermediary, but all of it goes straight -- from stock plans, straight into vested E*TRADE accounts. We're doing a bunch of work. We just reviewed our electronic trading platform in equities and what they're doing in equities and fixed income.

Solium 基本上是一家科技公司。 E*TRADE 是一家科技公司，它構建了一個不圍繞金融中介的工作平台，但所有這些都是直接的——從股票計劃，直接進入既得的 E*TRADE 賬戶。我們正在做很多工作。我們剛剛回顧了我們的股票電子交易平台以及他們在股票和固定收益方面的表現。

And some of the opportunities to leverage the derivatives trading within the E*TRADE platform with our electronic trading within our equities group. So -- and a lot of stuff we're doing around cyber, data protection, data management, AI is a huge effort. We have a group of people, our distinguished engineers, which we appoint each year, a group of very sophisticated technology software engineers and designers and -- we had new class just welcomed him actually last week, I think it was.

以及利用 E*TRADE 平台內的衍生品交易和我們股票組內的電子交易的一些機會。所以——我們圍繞網絡、數據保護、數據管理做的很多事情，人工智能是一項巨大的努力。我們有一群人，我們每年任命的傑出工程師，一群非常成熟的技術軟件工程師和設計師 - 我們上周剛剛迎來了新班級，我想是的。

So enormous [work] going on. I mean to your base question, tech spend is going up. I think it's fair to say, along with some of our controls and compliance areas, it's the fastest-growing part of this firm. But that's good because it's displacing things we would be doing manually, which we shouldn't be doing manually. So I'm perfectly happy to see our tech spend go up. A lot of it is around new innovation, but we're also running a plant which is driving $60 billion in revenue. And there's just basic tech infrastructure that we keep modernizing that is the backbone of that plant. So hopefully, that gives you a bit of a sense.

如此巨大的[工作]正在進行。我的意思是你的基本問題，技術支出正在上升。我認為公平地說，連同我們的一些控制和合規領域，它是這家公司增長最快的部分。但這很好，因為它取代了我們手動做的事情，我們不應該手動做。所以我很高興看到我們的技術支出增加。其中很多都圍繞著新的創新，但我們也在運營一家創造 600 億美元收入的工廠。我們不斷更新的基本技術基礎設施是該工廠的支柱。所以希望這能給你一點感覺。

All right. Maybe drive specifics in another area. You have $65 billion of inflows to wealth in a tough market noted, but I see the definition of inflows has changed over the last year to also include dividends, interest and asset acquisitions. And that's from the note in the earnings supplement. So how much of the $65 billion of inflows to wealth were related to dividends, interest and asset acquisitions?

好的。也許在另一個領域驅動細節。在一個艱難的市場中，有 650 億美元的財富流入，但我看到流入的定義在去年發生了變化，還包括股息、利息和資產收購。這來自收益補充中的說明。那麼，在 650 億美元的財富流入中，有多少與股息、利息和資產收購有關？

I just would highlight there are no asset acquisitions this quarter, and the dividends and interest was always included in that definition.

我只想強調本季度沒有資產收購，股息和利息始終包含在該定義中。

Yes, that's -- I mean, to my knowledge, that's not a change that has happened, at least in the last 2 decades so.

是的，那是 - 我的意思是，據我所知，這不是發生的變化，至少在過去的 2 年中如此。

We'll go next to Jeremy Sigee with BNP Paribas.

我們將與法國巴黎銀行一起前往 Jeremy Sigee。

You talked about E*TRADE and workplace and the multichannel business model, which I think is very powerful. I just wanted to ask, is that all bedded down now? Is that fully operational, humming along? Or are there any major integration steps or implementation steps still to be done?

您談到了 E*TRADE 和工作場所以及多渠道商業模式，我認為這非常強大。我只想問，現在都睡了嗎？那是完全可操作的，嗡嗡作響嗎？或者是否還有任何主要的集成步驟或實施步驟需要完成？

So last in integration, I talked about this actually on the call in January, there will be a back office conversion that we'll see in 2023. But that's the most major thing that we have left to be done. As well as over the course of the fourth quarter, we will expect something in terms of integration expense, specifically from an E*TRADE perspective. It will look similar to the third quarter.

所以最後在整合中，我實際上在一月份的電話會議上談到了這一點，我們將在 2023 年看到後台轉換。但這是我們要做的最重要的事情。以及在第四季度的整個過程中，我們預計在整合費用方面會有一些東西，特別是從 E*TRADE 的角度來看。它看起來與第三季度相似。

And in terms of referral between the channels, that capability, that's fully happening already? That's in place. It's happening. All the capability is there.

就渠道之間的轉介而言，這種能力已經完全實現了嗎？這是到位的。正在發生。所有的能力都在那裡。

I'm sorry, I misunderstood the question that you were talking specifically about the integration expenses and how we were thinking about that. From a referral perspective, I would say there's still a lot more that will continue to be done. So we're just scratching the surface of that entire -- those relationships and bringing those funnels together.

抱歉，我誤解了您具體談論的集成費用以及我們如何考慮的問題。從推薦的角度來看，我想說還有很多工作要做。所以我們只是觸及了整個的表面 - 這些關係並將這些漏斗整合在一起。

What I mentioned, for example, as you think about the referral programs, that's just beginning, right? So the better data that we have amongst who's the best FA to refer to, to refer a workplace relationship to, that will just continue as you kind of better understand and aggregate data.

例如，當您想到推薦計劃時，我提到的這一切才剛剛開始，對嗎？因此，當您更好地理解和匯總數據時，我們在誰是最好的 FA 中可以參考的更好的數據，可以參考工作場所的關係。

Remember, we've invested a lot in the capabilities that you would consider AI in nature to give you a better sense of what does someone do with his or her next stock plan distribution, for example. Do they buy a house? Do they need a mortgage? Okay, what happens at this stage in someone's life cycle?

請記住，我們已經在您認為 AI 本質上的功能上投入了大量資金，例如，讓您更好地了解某人如何處理他或她的下一個股票計劃分配。他們買房子嗎？他們需要抵押貸款嗎？好的，在某人生命週期的這個階段會發生什麼？

So the more and more data that we aggregate across all of these channels, the more and more powerful the Wealth Management business becomes. So to James' point around the technology investment, that technology investment is core to be able to continue to grow the business with what we've called, and we've discussed this, Project Genome before.

因此，我們在所有這些渠道中匯總的數據越多，財富管理業務就越強大。因此，對於詹姆斯關於技術投資的觀點，技術投資是能夠通過我們所說的繼續發展業務的核心，我們之前已經討論過這個，Project Genome。

I'd just repeat something that Andy Saperstein said at one of the recent conferences. Our plan is to generate $1 trillion of new money, new client money every 3 years. So it's $330 billion. Obviously, in a very difficult environment like this, it's -- that run rate is more challenging, but we've had quarters where we've been much higher than where we are now. So it's about, call it, $75 billion, a little more, $80 billion a quarter. And in this quarter, we did $65 billion. That is an unbelievable number.

我只想重複一下安迪·薩珀斯坦在最近的一次會議上所說的話。我們的計劃是每 3 年產生 1 萬億美元的新資金、新客戶資金。所以它是3300億美元。顯然，在這樣一個非常困難的環境中，運行速度更具挑戰性，但我們有幾個季度比現在高得多。所以它大約是，稱之為，750 億美元，再多一點，每季度 800 億美元。在本季度，我們做了 650 億美元。這是一個難以置信的數字。

If you think about $1 trillion, we generate over 50 basis points -- 50 basis points per dollar of assets. So that is an unbelievable revenue machine. And there are many, many factors contributing to it. It is a completely different business model because of workplace, because of the direct channels, because of what we've done with the bank and the way we've changed the whole financial advisory interaction with a client through technology.

如果您考慮 1 萬億美元，我們會產生超過 50 個基點——每美元資產產生 50 個基點。所以這是一台令人難以置信的創收機器。有很多很多因素促成了它。這是一種完全不同的商業模式，因為工作場所、直接渠道、我們與銀行的合作以及我們通過技術改變了與客戶的整個財務諮詢互動的方式。

So very exciting, this path that we're on, and it's heading towards what I've said. My long-term goal here is $10 trillion in clients' money. At 50 basis points, it's a $50 billion business. And that's the target we're heading for, and that's where we're going to go.

非常令人興奮，我們正在走的這條道路，它正朝著我所說的方向前進。我的長期目標是客戶的資金達到 10 萬億美元。以 50 個基點計算，這是一項價值 500 億美元的業務。這就是我們要達到的目標，也是我們要去的地方。

We'll go next to Gerard Cassidy with RBC Capital Markets.

我們將與 RBC Capital Markets 一起討論 Gerard Cassidy。

James, you mentioned that obviously, it's no real surprise the market conditions, as you described, some of the issues we've confronted this year. And obviously, capital raising is going to come back at some point. Can you guys give us a little further color on your pipelines of what you're seeing possibly for the fourth quarter as we go into the first of next year in the investment banking and trading areas?

詹姆斯，你顯然提到了，正如你所描述的，市場狀況並不令人驚訝，我們今年面臨的一些問題。顯然，融資將在某個時候回來。當我們進入明年第一季度的投資銀行和交易領域時，你們能否就第四季度可能看到的情況向我們提供更多信息？

The pipelines are solid. The activity, I think what's interesting is continues to be across a diversified base of different companies. So it's not just about one sector in particular. But as James and I highlighted, I think it's really around that macroeconomic factors, and that's geopolitics, et cetera. But what it really ends up doing is creates uncertainty in the cost of capital and in valuation, which therefore also impacts price discovery. And so that's kind of the -- what's the clincher in terms of this realization of what remains a solid pipeline.

管道很堅固。活動，我認為有趣的是繼續跨越不同公司的多元化基礎。因此，這不僅僅是一個特定領域。但正如詹姆斯和我強調的那樣，我認為這真的是圍繞宏觀經濟因素，那就是地緣政治等等。但它真正最終會造成資本成本和估值的不確定性，因此也會影響價格發現。所以這就是 - 就實現仍然穩固的管道而言，關鍵是什麼。

Do you think your clients are more realistic about that price discovery today, Sharon, versus maybe 6 months ago?

沙龍，你認為你的客戶對今天的價格發現比 6 個月前更現實嗎？

I think that people are digesting the various prices, and I do think that you're beginning to see that on, say, an issuance perspective, right? So if you think about the cost of capital, that also took people time to -- or rather companies time to digest and understand that we are in a different regime where treasuries are, and so it means that their cost of capital is also higher.

我認為人們正在消化各種價格，而且我認為你已經開始從發行的角度看到這一點，對嗎？因此，如果您考慮資本成本，這也需要人們時間——或者更確切地說，公司需要時間來消化和理解我們處於與國債不同的製度中，因此這意味著他們的資本成本也更高。

And you might not have necessarily seen issuance right away because those corporate balance sheets were there. And now you might see an opportunistic or more prudent behavior from a treasurer or CFO. And so I think that as that mindset begins to shift, then yes, over time, the valuation mindset begins to shift as well.

而且您可能不一定會立即看到發行，因為那些公司資產負債表就在那裡。現在您可能會看到財務主管或首席財務官的投機取巧或更謹慎的行為。所以我認為隨著這種心態開始轉變，是的，隨著時間的推移，估值心態也開始轉變。

I'm on the road a lot, and I see a lot of CEOs. I mean I think the CEOs of sort of established or on the path to established companies are getting very realistic. And they want to get on with business. I mean you can't sit on your hands forever. You've got to figure out always a better way to do business. And the environment, it's wonderful if you have zero interest rates, but that's unsustainable.

我經常在路上，我看到了很多 CEO。我的意思是，我認為已經建立或正在走向成熟公司的 CEO 變得非常現實。他們想繼續做生意。我的意思是你不能永遠坐在你的手上。你必須想出一個更好的做生意的方法。還有環境，如果你有零利率，那就太好了，但這是不可持續的。

So we've moved to a normalized, and obviously, we're going to go a little higher than that to beat inflation back, but people are adjusting to that. I think the ones that are struggling, still, companies that -- private companies that were valued at, let's just say, spotty levels and they're doing new rounds and they're finding they're just not pegged at the same.

因此，我們已經轉向正常化，顯然，我們將比這更高一點以擊敗通脹，但人們正在適應這一點。我認為那些仍在苦苦掙扎的公司——那些估值參差不齊的私人公司，他們正在進行新一輪融資，他們發現他們只是沒有掛鉤。

And that's hard to accept as an entrepreneur. It's their baby and they want to believe that it's what it was at the peak. And maybe it was overvalued at the peak. That's just what [profiting] markets do. And again, some of these public companies that have traded down from their offering price because we're in a different environment and money has got more expensive.

作為一個企業家，這是很難接受的。這是他們的孩子，他們想相信這就是巔峰時期的樣子。也許它在巔峰時期被高估了。這正是[盈利]市場所做的。再一次，這些上市公司中的一些因為我們處於不同的環境中而降低了發行價，而且資金變得更加昂貴。

So those groups will take longer to adjust. But this is sort of real politic around core businesses that have been around for a while. They adjust pretty quickly. I mean, we all get it. We've all been through different cycles. You get a little lucky in certain cycles where things are really cheap, and then you've got to move a little harder and a little faster when things aren't. And we've done deals in both kinds of cycles.

所以這些群體需要更長的時間來調整。但這是圍繞已經存在了一段時間的核心業務的真正政治。他們調整得很快。我的意思是，我們都明白了。我們都經歷過不同的周期。在某些東西真的很便宜的周期中，你會有點幸運，然後當事情不便宜時，你必須更加努力和更快地行動。我們已經在這兩種週期中完成了交易。

There are no further questions at this time. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you, everyone, for participating. You may now disconnect.

目前沒有其他問題。女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。