摩根士丹利 (MS) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. On behalf of Morgan Stanley, I will begin the call with the following disclaimer.

早上好。我將代表摩根士丹利以以下免責聲明開始通話。

This call is being recorded. During today's presentation, we will refer to our earnings release and financial supplement, copies of which are available at morganstanley.com.

此通話正在錄音中。在今天的演講中，我們將參考我們的收益發布和財務補充，其副本可在 morganstanley.com 上獲得。

Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to our notices regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures that appear in the earnings release and strategic update.

今天的演示文稿可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。請參閱我們關於收益發布和戰略更新中出現的前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 措施的通知。

Within the strategic update, certain reported information has been adjusted as noted. These adjustments were made to provide a transparent and comparative view of our operating performance against our strategic objectives. The reconciliations of these non-GAAP adjusted operating performance metrics are included in the notes to the presentation or the earnings release. This presentation may not be duplicated or reproduced without our consent.

在戰略更新中，某些報告的信息已按說明進行了調整。進行這些調整是為了根據我們的戰略目標提供我們的經營業績的透明和比較視圖。這些非 GAAP 調整後的運營績效指標的對賬包含在演示文稿或收益發布的註釋中。未經我們同意，不得複製或轉載本演示文稿。

I will now turn the call over to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, James Gorman.

我現在將電話轉交給董事長兼首席執行官詹姆斯戈爾曼。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. The macro backdrop of the last year presented challenges we haven't seen for some time. The combined impact of persistent inflation and rapid central bank tightening pressured asset levels and led to some -- led to very little strategic activity and capital raising.

謝謝你，運營商。大家，早安。感謝您加入我們。去年的宏觀背景給我們帶來了一段時間未見的挑戰。持續的通貨膨脹和央行迅速收緊政策的綜合影響給資產水平帶來了壓力，並導致一些 - 導致戰略活動和融資非常少。

Despite volatility throughout the year, Morgan Stanley demonstrated resilience and delivered on an ROTCE of 16%, including integration-related expenses from our deals. The firm did what it was supposed to do with our more stable Wealth and Investment Management businesses offsetting declines in Institutional Securities. This is hard evidence of the transformation we've made to become increasingly durable and a stark contrast to the 8% ROTCE we had in the last notable challenging environment of 2015. When markets rebound, we will capitalize on growth once again across the full firm, and from an even stronger position.

儘管全年波動不定，但摩根士丹利表現出了韌性，並實現了 16% 的 ROTCE，包括我們交易中與整合相關的費用。該公司做了它應該做的事情，我們更穩定的財富和投資管理業務抵消了機構證券的下滑。這是我們為變得越來越持久而進行的轉型的有力證據，與我們在 2015 年最後一個充滿挑戰的環境中 8% 的 ROTCE 形成鮮明對比。當市場反彈時，我們將再次利用整個公司的增長，並從一個更強大的位置。

Before turning to Sharon to discuss the details of the fourth quarter and the full year, I'll walk you through now how we plan to achieve these goals in our annual strategic update appropriately titled Delivering Growth Through the Next Decade.

在轉向 Sharon 討論第四季度和全年的細節之前，我現在將向您介紹我們計劃如何在我們的年度戰略更新中實現這些目標，該更新的標題恰如其分地命名為“在下一個十年實現增長”。

Briefly first, I'd like to acknowledge the many contributions Jon Pruzan made as CFO and COO. As you know, he's retiring from Morgan Stanley at the end of this month, and we wish him the absolute best.

首先，我想感謝 Jon Pruzan 作為首席財務官和首席運營官所做的許多貢獻。如您所知，他將於本月底從摩根士丹利退休，我們祝愿他一切順利。

Please now turn to the deck and to Slide 3. What informs our confidence and growth strategy is that we know who we are. We've been clear about that for over a decade. Our clarity of purpose has been a key driver of our success to date, and the next decade will be no different.

現在請轉到幻燈片和幻燈片 3。我們的信心和增長戰略是我們知道自己是誰。十多年來，我們一直很清楚這一點。我們明確的目標一直是我們迄今為止取得成功的關鍵驅動力，未來十年也不會有所不同。

On Slide 4, you can see we've been consistent since the financial crisis. We have a client-centric franchise with a common objective to facilitate capital flows between those who have it and those who need it. We're committed to our clients and to the markets we're in, clearly illustrated by the leading competitive positions we have. In each of our businesses, we have a significant competitive moat, which will enable us to maintain and further enhance our strength.

在幻燈片 4 上，您可以看到自金融危機以來我們一直保持一致。我們有一個以客戶為中心的特許經營權，其共同目標是促進擁有它的人和需要它的人之間的資本流動。我們致力於我們的客戶和我們所處的市場，我們擁有的領先競爭地位清楚地說明了這一點。在我們的每一項業務中，我們都有一條重要的競爭護城河，這將使我們能夠保持並進一步增強我們的實力。

Slide 5 highlights the strategic decisions we've made over the past decades that are focused on aligning markets -- ourselves to the markets where we perform best. And these are core businesses with scale in major markets; that are on the whole, more balance sheet-light; and benefit from more durable fee-based revenues. We continue to invest in these areas to drive future growth. We have proven track record in our ability to acquire and integrate the businesses that are aligned with this strategy, namely within Wealth and Investment Management.

幻燈片 5 強調了我們在過去幾十年中做出的戰略決策，這些決策專注於調整市場——我們自己與我們表現最佳的市場。這些是在主要市場具有規模的核心業務；總體而言，資產負債表更輕；並從更持久的收費收入中獲益。我們繼續投資於這些領域以推動未來的增長。我們在收購和整合符合該戰略的業務（即財富和投資管理業務）方面擁有良好的業績記錄。

Importantly, we've also taken action to get out of businesses that are not core to this flow of capital. While we may facilitate activities across varied markets, we do not own businesses that are built around unsecured consumer credit, payments, physical handling of commodities and the like. Instead, we focus on markets we know best, and our ability is there to support our clients in those markets.

重要的是，我們還採取了行動，退出對這種資本流動而言並非核心的業務。雖然我們可能促進跨不同市場的活動，但我們並不擁有圍繞無擔保消費信貸、支付、商品實物處理等建立的業務。相反，我們專注於我們最了解的市場，我們有能力為這些市場的客戶提供支持。

Please turn to Slide 6. This illustrates the ongoing growth and shift of our business mix. As we continue to grow our client assets, we expect Wealth and Investment Management will become an increasingly larger portion of the firm's pretax profit. The stability of the firm will be further enhanced by this growth, all the while coupled with a preeminent institutional franchise.

請轉到幻燈片 6。這說明了我們業務組合的持續增長和轉變。隨著我們不斷增加客戶資產，我們預計財富和投資管理將在公司的稅前利潤中佔據越來越大的份額。公司的穩定性將因這種增長而得到進一步增強，同時伴隨著卓越的機構特許經營權。

Fair to say, our business model was tested this year, as you can see on Slide 7. 2022 was a paradigm shift. Firstly, the common -- continuation of the first pandemic in 100 years, the first war in Europe in over 70 years and the highest inflation in 40 years. Despite lower asset values and an anemic underwriting calendar, the firm performed well. We generated, as I said before, a 16% ROTCE; had the most excess risk-based capital of our peers; and attracted over $300 billion of net new assets; all while integrating 2 major acquisitions.

公平地說，正如您在幻燈片 7 中看到的那樣，我們的商業模式今年經過了測試。2022 年是范式轉變。首先，共同點——100 年來第一次大流行的持續，歐洲 70 多年來的第一次戰爭和 40 年來最高的通貨膨脹。儘管資產價值較低且承銷日曆不佳，但該公司表現良好。正如我之前所說，我們產生了 16% 的 ROTCE；擁有同行中最多的過剩風險資本；並吸引了超過 3000 億美元的淨新資產；同時整合 2 項主要收購。

So now moving to the opportunities to maximize growth in the next decade, let's start with Wealth Management. On Slide 8, you can see we have leadership positions across channels, reflecting our combination of best-in-class advice and best-in-class technology. And we have the ability to meet any client wherever they are in their wealth accumulation journey. This allows us to grow with our clients along the way and provides the opportunity for clients to migrate across channels.

因此，現在轉向在未來十年實現增長最大化的機會，讓我們從財富管理開始。在幻燈片 8 上，您可以看到我們在各個渠道中處於領先地位，反映了我們將一流的建議和一流的技術相結合。我們有能力滿足任何客戶，無論他們身在何處，都在積累財富的過程中。這使我們能夠與客戶一起成長，並為客戶提供跨渠道遷移的機會。

The growth of our business is reflected in our higher average daily revenues, something I've been tracking for well over a decade. 2022, every trading day saw revenues in excess of $80 million, and over 1/3 of those exceeded $100 million a day. Contrast that with only 3 years ago, where 95% of trading revenues were each below $80 million, and none exceeded $100 million.

我們業務的增長反映在我們更高的平均每日收入上，我已經跟踪了十多年。到2022年，每個交易日的收入都超過8000萬美元，其中超過1/3的交易日超過1億美元。相比之下，僅僅 3 年前，95% 的交易收入均低於 8000 萬美元，沒有一個超過 1 億美元。

The history of the journey as illustrated on Slide 7. Wealth Management has gone through a powerful transformation, as you all know, including with the most significant recent acquisitions in -- of E*TRADE and Solium, which have expanded our client base with 2 new channels. Today, we have 18 million relationships. We focus on deepening those relationships by offering the right product at the right time and consolidating assets under our platform. From here, we're building on the scale and the tools to reach -- and the reach that will propel future growth.

旅程的歷史如幻燈片 7 所示。眾所周知，財富管理經歷了一次強大的轉型，包括最近對 E*TRADE 和 Solium 的最重要收購，這使我們的客戶群擴大了 2新渠道。今天，我們有 1800 萬個關係。我們專注於通過在正確的時間提供正確的產品並在我們的平台下整合資產來深化這些關係。從這裡開始，我們正在擴大規模和達到的工具——以及將推動未來增長的範圍。

Net interest income has certainly been part of the profitability expansion to date, and you can see the driving forces highlighted on Slide 10. We have invested in expanding our bank offerings, allowing us to offer attractive products to our clients on both sides of their balance sheet to meet their needs. We've nearly doubled our lending balances over the last 3 years, and we expect to continue to grow attractive high-quality loans.

迄今為止，淨利息收入肯定是盈利能力擴張的一部分，您可以在幻燈片 10 中看到突出顯示的驅動力。我們已投資擴大我們的銀行產品，使我們能夠為客戶提供有吸引力的產品。表來滿足他們的需要。在過去 3 年裡，我們的貸款餘額幾乎翻了一番，我們預計將繼續增加有吸引力的高質量貸款。

On the other side, our deposits franchise has grown significantly since 2019 and will continue to support future NII through various cycles. Approximately 90% of our deposits are sourced from our Wealth Management client base. And in the current rising rate environment, our cost of deposits is more efficient than that we experienced in the last rate-hiking cycle. Sharon will discuss this important topic and our outlook around NII further in a few minutes.

另一方面，自 2019 年以來，我們的存款業務顯著增長，並將繼續通過各種週期支持未來的 NII。我們大約 90% 的存款來自我們的財富管理客戶群。在當前利率上升的環境下，我們的存款成本比我們在上一個加息週期中經歷的更有效率。 Sharon 將在幾分鐘內進一步討論這個重要話題以及我們對 NII 的展望。

Let's turn to Slide 11. This now talks about NNA growth: Net new assets. Over the last 3 years, our platform generated nearly $1 trillion of net new assets, showing a clear step change from prior periods and marking Morgan Stanley as a leader across our peer group as an asset accumulator. Given the scale and reach of our businesses, we expect to deliver this pace of asset accumulation going forward. Obviously, there will be ups and downs in individual years. But over a 3-year period, we expect to drive approximately $1 trillion in net new assets.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 11。現在討論的是 NNA 增長：淨新資產。在過去的 3 年裡，我們的平台產生了近 1 萬億美元的淨新資產，與之前的時期相比出現了明顯的變化，標誌著摩根士丹利在我們的同行集團中成為資產積累者的領導者。鑑於我們業務的規模和範圍，我們預計未來將實現這種資產積累的步伐。顯然，個別年份會有起伏。但在 3 年期間，我們預計將推動約 1 萬億美元的淨新資產。

Most importantly, as you can see on the right-hand side of this page, no single source is accounting for greater than 25% of this net new money. Some people think it's just a result of recruiting. It is absolutely not. It's a combination of several things which the team has described as filling the funnel of net new money.

最重要的是，正如您在本頁右側所見，沒有任何單一來源佔新資金淨額的 25% 以上。有些人認為這只是招聘的結果。絕對不是。它是團隊描述為填充淨新資金漏斗的幾件事的組合。

You can see on Slide 12, which shows our growth in client assets, we have experienced that through our workplace channel. We estimate now that relationships, wealth held away, has expanded by about 4x in the last 3 years. With our ability to serve clients across the entire wealth spectrum, we're well positioned to consolidate a portion of these assets.

您可以在幻燈片 12 上看到，它顯示了我們在客戶資產方面的增長，我們通過我們的工作場所渠道體驗到了這一點。我們現在估計，在過去 3 年中，關係和財富增長了約 4 倍。憑藉我們為整個財富領域的客戶提供服務的能力，我們完全有能力整合這些資產的一部分。

Further, the workplace channel continues to bring new relationships to the platform. We've executed on key steps to deepen those. We've already reached our goal to roll out companion accounts to 90% of workplace participants and to achieve 30% retention of stock plan assets. We look forward to even higher retention.

此外，工作場所渠道繼續為平台帶來新的關係。我們已經執行了關鍵步驟來深化這些步驟。我們已經實現了向 90% 的工作場所參與者推出伴侶賬戶並實現 30% 的股票計劃資產保留的目標。我們期待更高的保留率。

The results of our advice-driven strategy are illustrated on Slide 13. The workplace channel has driven the majority of our growth in client relationships and stands at 12 million relationships to date. While it can take several years to deepen those, we've already seen success in some parts of the offering, that of our stock plan administrative services.

我們的建議驅動策略的結果在幻燈片 13 中有所說明。工作場所渠道推動了我們客戶關係的大部分增長，迄今為止已建立 1200 萬個關係。雖然深化這些可能需要數年時間，但我們已經看到產品的某些部分取得了成功，即我們的股票計劃管理服務。

Over the last 3 years, we've had approximately $350 billion of after-tax vested inflows. Vesting assets gives us more opportunity to deliver an integrated client experience, and that's allowed us to showcase the power of advice. To date, we've already seen adviser-led flows of approximately $150 billion that originated from a workplace relationship. A portion of those assets are the stock plan vested balances, but a larger portion are from assets that were previously held away. In short, we will -- as we deliver our full suite of capabilities, our strategy to attract clients to advice is working.

在過去 3 年中，我們有大約 3500 億美元的稅後既得資金流入。歸屬資產讓我們有更多機會提供綜合的客戶體驗，這讓我們能夠展示建議的力量。迄今為止，我們已經看到由顧問主導的約 1500 億美元的資金流源自職場關係。這些資產的一部分是股票計劃的既得餘額，但更大一部分來自之前持有的資產。簡而言之，我們將——隨著我們提供全套能力，我們吸引客戶提供建議的戰略正在發揮作用。

Investment Management has also delivered strong fee-based growth over the course of its own transformation, as you can see on Slide 14, which encapsulates the business together with Eaton Vance. This business has more than doubled its durable asset management and related fees since 2014. And importantly, this significantly larger revenue base is more diversified. Increased diversification from fixed income, customization and alternatives continues to support results in more volatile equity markets.

正如您在幻燈片 14 中看到的那樣，投資管理在其自身轉型過程中也實現了基於費用的強勁增長，該幻燈片將業務與 Eaton Vance 封裝在一起。自 2014 年以來，該業務的持久資產管理和相關費用增加了一倍以上。重要的是，這個顯著擴大的收入基礎更加多元化。固定收益、定制化和另類投資的多元化繼續支持更加動蕩的股票市場的結果。

We remain very aligned to key growth areas. Our alternative investment capital is at $210 billion, with strong growth in private credit; real assets, including infrastructure; our multi-strategy hedge fund platform; and special situations. And customization by our market-leading parametric business continues to be a significant growth engine.

我們仍然與關鍵增長領域保持一致。我們的另類投資資本為 2100 億美元，私人信貸增長強勁；實物資產，包括基礎設施；我們的多策略對沖基金平台；和特殊情況。我們市場領先的參數化業務的定制化仍然是一個重要的增長引擎。

Shifting to Institutional Securities on Slide 15. We have a global and balanced franchise. And our integrated investment bank has and continues to focus on meeting clients where they are active. This has served us well as our strength is evident across various market environments. We remain a leader in equity and Investment Banking and have steadily rebuilt our fixed income franchise focused on our strongest capabilities.

轉向幻燈片 15 上的機構證券。我們擁有全球和平衡的特許經營權。我們的綜合投資銀行一直並將繼續專注於在客戶活躍的地方會見他們。這對我們很有幫助，因為我們的實力在各種市場環境中都很明顯。我們仍然是股票和投資銀行業務的領導者，並穩步重建我們的固定收益業務，專注於我們最強大的能力。

On Slide 16, you can see our institutional business remains a top 3 global leader in the industry, as demonstrated by a wallet share positions. We have demonstrated our ability to defend share and gain it in relatively more capital-light businesses. At the same time, we've shown prudence over resources as illustrated clearly by the disciplined RWA usage, which actually dropped from '22 to -- '21 to '22 and our consistent GSIB surcharge of 3%.

在幻燈片 16 上，您可以看到我們的機構業務仍然是該行業的全球前三名，如錢包份額位置所示。我們已經證明了我們有能力捍衛市場份額並在相對輕資本的業務中獲得市場份額。與此同時，我們對資源表現出審慎態度，嚴格的 RWA 使用清楚地說明了這一點，它實際上從 22 年下降到 21 年到 22 年，我們一致的 GSIB 附加費為 3%。

Let's move to our capital strategy on Slide 17. We have 200 basis points of excess capital above our regulatory requirement. This is intentional. Our capital strategy has focused on bringing the risk down in our businesses, and we've seen a steady decline in our SCB, excluding the dividend add-on, relative -- reflective of our more durable business mix. Our capital position gives us enormous flexibility, and we're comfortable with our decision to be prudently positioned.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 17 上的資本策略。我們有 200 個基點的超額資本高於我們的監管要求。這是故意的。我們的資本戰略專注於降低我們業務的風險，我們已經看到我們的 SCB 穩步下降，不包括股息附加，相對 - 反映了我們更持久的業務組合。我們的資本狀況給了我們巨大的靈活性，我們對我們謹慎定位的決定感到滿意。

On Slide 18, you can see our excess capital position enables us to continue to invest in our business for future growth and deliver robust returns to shareholders. Our business transformation, especially the durable earnings from Wealth and Investment Management, enable us to double that dividend -- enabled us to double our dividend in 2021 and further increase it by 11% in 2022. Over the same time, we've reduced our shares outstanding from the much higher levels driven by the impact of our recent acquisitions. Taken together, we delivered a 9% capital return to our shareholders last year. We remain committed to ongoing shareholder return, adjusting always for whatever the business performance is and the regulatory requirements' demand.

在幻燈片 18 上，您可以看到我們過剩的資本狀況使我們能夠繼續投資於我們的業務以實現未來增長並為股東帶來豐厚的回報。我們的業務轉型，尤其是財富和投資管理的持久收益，使我們能夠將股息翻倍——使我們能夠在 2021 年將股息翻一番，並在 2022 年進一步增加 11%。與此同時，我們減少了我們的股息受我們最近收購的影響，已發行股票的價格高得多。總的來說，我們去年為股東帶來了 9% 的資本回報。我們始終致力於持續的股東回報，始終根據業務績效和監管要求進行調整。

Shifting to how we see the future state on Slide 19, starting with the expected path to $10 trillion in client assets across Wealth and Investment Management. We've demonstrated our ability to generate, over the last 3 years, positive net new assets of approximately $300 billion a year. Combining that with reasonable average market assumptions give us the confidence this will lead to $10 trillion in client assets in reasonable years ahead.

轉向我們如何看待幻燈片 19 上的未來狀態，從財富和投資管理中客戶資產達到 10 萬億美元的預期路徑開始。在過去的 3 年裡，我們已經展示了我們每年產生約 3000 億美元淨新資產的能力。將其與合理的平均市場假設相結合，使我們相信這將在未來合理的幾年內帶來 10 萬億美元的客戶資產。

Now let's consider this within the broader firm picture, and bear with me for a minute. In 2022, the firm delivered $14 billion of pretax profit. In this future scenario of $10 trillion of assets, which I believe will happen, generating approximately 50 basis points of revenue, which is about what we're doing currently, at a 30% pretax margin, which is within 2% of what we're doing currently. If you put that math together, it should create, of itself, over $14 billion of pretax income. As you can see, that exceeds that of the full firm today just from the wealth and asset management businesses.

現在讓我們在更廣泛的公司圖景中考慮這一點，請耐心等待一分鐘。 2022 年，該公司實現了 140 億美元的稅前利潤。在未來 10 萬億美元資產的情況下，我相信這會發生，產生大約 50 個基點的收入，這與我們目前正在做的事情有關，稅前利潤率為 30%，與我們的利潤率相差不到 2%目前正在做。如果你把這些數字放在一起，它本身應該創造超過 140 億美元的稅前收入。正如您所看到的，這超過了今天僅來自財富和資產管理業務的整個公司。

So if you pull it all together, just to wrap it up, Slide 20 reiterates our confidence in our performance goals. They have not changed on account of what's gone on in the markets in the last 12 months. These are the metrics we need to support our longer-term objectives.

因此，如果您將所有內容放在一起，總結一下，幻燈片 20 重申了我們對績效目標的信心。由於過去 12 個月市場上發生的事情，它們沒有改變。這些是我們支持長期目標所需的指標。

Of note, we've added a new goal that I spoke to earlier, that we've talked about in the last 6 months, to generate $1 trillion in net new assets approximately every 3 years. Again, I'm sure there will be volatility quarter by quarter, year by year. But as we've demonstrated through the funnel of sources, we expect an outcome over 3 years of approximately $1 trillion. That's about, by the way, 5% to 7% of beginning period assets within wealth and asset management.

值得注意的是，我們增加了一個新目標，我之前談到過，我們在過去 6 個月裡談到過，即大約每 3 年產生 1 萬億美元的淨新資產。同樣，我確信逐季、逐年都會出現波動。但正如我們通過渠道渠道展示的那樣，我們預計 3 年內的結果將達到約 1 萬億美元。順便說一下，這大約是財富和資產管理中初期資產的 5% 到 7%。

As we approach 2023, we do so with quiet confidence, recognizing we have a line of sight with the durability of our Wealth and Investment Management businesses and our market share-leading positions across much of Institutional Securities. As always, our objectives are subject to major moves in the economic, political or regulatory environment. However, with a constructive outlook and a proven track record we've delivered thus far, we fully expect to achieve our goals over time.

隨著 2023 年的臨近，我們充滿信心地這樣做，認識到我們對我們的財富和投資管理業務的持久性以及我們在大部分機構證券中的市場份額領先地位有一個預期。一如既往，我們的目標受經濟、政治或監管環境的重大變化影響。然而，憑藉建設性的前景和迄今為止我們已經取得的良好業績，我們完全希望隨著時間的推移實現我們的目標。

I will now turn the call over to Sharon, who will discuss the fourth quarter and annual results. And we'd be delighted to take your questions.

我現在將電話轉給沙龍，她將討論第四季度和年度業績。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, and good morning. In a complex year, the firm delivered solid results. Full year revenues were $53.7 billion and PBT was $14.1 billion. The fourth quarter contributed to $12.7 billion in revenues and PBT of $2.8 billion.

謝謝，早上好。在復雜的一年中，該公司取得了可觀的業績。全年收入為 537 億美元，PBT 為 141 億美元。第四季度貢獻了 127 億美元的收入和 28 億美元的 PBT。

The strategic investments we have made over the last decade have paid off. Wealth Management had a record year and fixed income had its strongest performance in over a decade. While the firm was broadly impacted by increased volatility and economic uncertainty, the business model performed very well in a challenging environment, as it was designed to do.

我們在過去十年中所做的戰略投資已見成效。財富管理創下了創紀錄的一年，固定收益也創下了十多年來最強勁的表現。儘管該公司受到波動性和經濟不確定性增加的廣泛影響，但該商業模式在充滿挑戰的環境中表現良好，正如其設計的那樣。

The full year results included $470 million of integration-related expenses, of which, $120 million were incurred in the fourth quarter. Excluding these impacts, EPS was $6.36 and $1.31 for the full year and for the quarter, respectively. The full year ROTCE was 15.3% and 15.7%, excluding the costs associated with integration. In the quarter, severance expenses of $133 million related to a December employee action and a net discrete tax benefit -- or net discrete tax benefits of $89 million largely offset each other through net income. The full year efficiency ratio was 73.2%. Excluding integration-related expenses, our full year efficiency ratio was 72.4%.

全年業績包括 4.7 億美元的整合相關費用，其中 1.2 億美元發生在第四季度。排除這些影響，全年和本季度每股收益分別為 6.36 美元和 1.31 美元。全年 ROTCE 分別為 15.3% 和 15.7%，不包括與整合相關的成本。在本季度，與 12 月員工行動相關的 1.33 億美元遣散費和淨離散稅收收益 - 或 8900 萬美元的淨離散稅收收益在很大程度上通過淨收入相互抵消。全年效率為73.2%。不包括整合相關費用，我們的全年效率率為 72.4%。

Total expenses were approximately flat to the prior year. Lower compensation expenses, principally related to movements in DCP and on lower revenues, were offset by higher noncompensation expenses primarily driven by investments in technology as well as increased marketing and business development spend. As a reminder, this year also included a $200 million charge related to a legal matter regarding the firm's record-keeping requirement in the second quarter.

總支出與上一年大致持平。較低的補償費用主要與 DCP 的變動和較低的收入有關，但被主要由技術投資以及營銷和業務開發支出增加驅動的較高的非補償費用所抵消。提醒一下，今年還包括與公司第二季度記錄保存要求相關的法律事務相關的 2 億美元費用。

As the environment evolved over the course of 2022, we actively managed our expense base. Cognizant of the ongoing macro uncertainty, we continue to review efficiency opportunities. We are in the final stages of completing our integration of both E*TRADE and Eaton Vance, and this will be the last quarter we present measures that exclude integration-related expenses from reported results. However, particularly as it relates to the integration of E*TRADE, the final back-office integration remains scheduled to conclude in 2023. We expect to incur approximately $325 million of additional integration-related expenses this year. These expenses will largely be spread evenly across quarters with approximately 2/3 related to E*TRADE and 1/3 related to Eaton Vance.

隨著 2022 年環境的發展，我們積極管理我們的費用基礎。認識到持續存在的宏觀不確定性，我們繼續審查提高效率的機會。我們正處於完成 E*TRADE 和 Eaton Vance 整合的最後階段，這將是我們提出從報告結果中排除整合相關費用的最後一個季度。然而，特別是與 E*TRADE 的整合有關，最終的後台整合仍計劃於 2023 年完成。我們預計今年將產生約 3.25 億美元的額外整合相關費用。這些費用將在很大程度上平均分佈在各個季度，其中約 2/3 與 E*TRADE 相關，1/3 與 Eaton Vance 相關。

Now to the businesses. Institutional Securities full year revenues of $24.4 billion declined 18% from the record prior year. In the fourth quarter, revenues were $4.8 billion. Overall, quarterly client engagement across fixed income and equities tapered from the higher levels seen in the first 9 months of the year, reflective of seasonality and the macroeconomic environment.

現在到企業。機構證券全年收入為 244 億美元，較上年創紀錄的水平下降 18%。第四季度的收入為 48 億美元。總體而言，固定收益和股票的季度客戶參與度從今年前 9 個月的較高水平逐漸下降，反映了季節性和宏觀經濟環境。

Weaker Investment Banking results persisted, reflecting the challenging banking backdrop. Investment Banking revenues were $5.2 billion for the full year, down 49% from the record prior year. Advisory delivered its second best result, supported in part by the completion of previously announced strategic transactions. Underwriting was more challenged, in line with the broader market.

投資銀行業業績持續疲軟，反映出銀行業面臨挑戰。全年投資銀行業務收入為 52 億美元，較上年同期下降 49%。 Advisory 取得了第二好的成績，這在一定程度上得益於先前宣布的戰略交易的完成。與更廣泛的市場一致，承銷面臨更大的挑戰。

Full year global equity volumes dropped to levels unseen in the last 20 years. Debt volumes contracted following the first quarter. And while the market was receptive to higher-quality issuance, activity was limited to constructive market periods. Fourth quarter revenues of $1.3 billion decreased 49% from the prior year. Lower completed M&A and underwriting market volumes weighed on results.

全年全球股票交易量降至過去 20 年未見的水平。第一季度後債務量收縮。儘管市場願意接受更高質量的發行，但活動僅限於建設性的市場時期。第四季度收入為 13 億美元，同比下降 49%。較低的完成併購和承銷市場交易量拖累了業績。

As we have highlighted in prior quarters, client dialogue and engagement remains high as clients seek advice to navigate the difficult environment. Greater economic clarity should lead to increased confidence to undertake strategic transactions. And looking ahead, we expect issuers to take advantage of these windows of opportunity.

正如我們在前幾個季度所強調的那樣，隨著客戶尋求建議以應對困難的環境，客戶對話和參與度仍然很高。更大的經濟透明度應該會增加進行戰略交易的信心。展望未來，我們希望發行人能夠利用這些機會之窗。

Equity full year trading -- excuse me, equity full year revenues were $10.8 billion, representing another strong year of over $10 billion and making us a global leader in this business. Revenues declined 6% from the record prior year, primarily driven by lower market activities. Revenues were $2.2 billion in the quarter, reflecting lower asset levels and volumes. Prime brokerage revenues were lower than the prior year as average client balances declined from record levels driven by lower equity markets and deleveraging. Cash results declined on lower client activity across regions.

股票全年交易——不好意思，股票全年收入為 108 億美元，代表著又一個超過 100 億美元的強勁年份，使我們成為該業務的全球領導者。收入比上年創紀錄的水平下降了 6%，這主要是由於市場活動減少所致。本季度收入為 22 億美元，反映出較低的資產水平和數量。由於股票市場走低和去槓桿化導致平均客戶餘額從創紀錄水平下降，大宗經紀業務收入低於上一年。由於各地區客戶活動減少，現金業績有所下降。

Derivative results increased slightly as the business navigated the market volatility well. Last year's fourth quarter also benefited from a mark-to-market gain on an investment versus a markdown this quarter.

由於業務很好地應對了市場波動，衍生產品的業績略有增加。與本季度的減價相比，去年第四季度的投資也受益於按市值計算的收益。

Fixed income revenues of $9 billion for the full year were the highest in over a decade. The divergence between the Fed's guidance on financial tightening and conditions and the market expectations engaged clients and drove revenues in macro while volatile energy markets benefited commodities.

全年 90 億美元的固定收益收入是十多年來的最高水平。美聯儲對金融緊縮和條件的指導與市場預期之間的差異吸引了客戶並推動了宏觀收入，而動蕩的能源市場有利於商品。

Quarterly revenues were $1.4 billion. Macro performance benefited from higher client engagement as inflation expectations moderated and clients repositioned in rates and foreign exchange. Strength in micro was supported by active secondary markets as expectations for inflation tempered and credit spreads tightened, driving an increase in client activity. Results in commodities were down significantly and primarily reflected lower revenues in the power and gas businesses. Other revenues included $356 million of mark-to-market losses on corporate loans held for sale and loan hedges. These losses were substantially offset by net interest income and fees of $287 million.

季度收入為 14 億美元。隨著通脹預期的緩和以及客戶在利率和外匯方面的重新定位，宏觀業績受益於更高的客戶參與度。隨著對通脹預期的緩和和信貸息差收緊，推動客戶活動增加，活躍的二級市場支持了微觀市場的強勢。大宗商品的業績大幅下降，主要反映了電力和天然氣業務的收入下降。其他收入包括持有待售的公司貸款和貸款對沖的 3.56 億美元按市值計算的損失。這些損失被 2.87 億美元的淨利息收入和費用大大抵消。

Turning to Wealth Management. For the full year, Wealth Management produced record revenues of $24.4 billion and a record pretax profit of $6.6 billion, resulting in a PBT margin of 27%. Excluding integration-related expenses of $357 million, the PBT margin was 28.4%.

轉向財富管理。全年，財富管理業務的收入達到創紀錄的 244 億美元，稅前利潤達到創紀錄的 66 億美元，稅前利潤率為 27%。不包括 3.57 億美元的整合相關費用，PBT 利潤率為 28.4%。

Full year results reflect mark-to-market impacts of our deferred cash-based compensation plans, referred to as DCP. This negatively impacted our full year revenues by $858 million, with a corresponding decrease of $530 million in compensation expenses. As we have explained historically, there is typically a timing difference between the mark-to-market gains and losses on the economic hedges and the deferred recognition of the compensation expense over the vesting period. The revenue and the expense impact of DCP is now included in our financial supplement.

全年業績反映了我們的遞延現金補償計劃（簡稱 DCP）按市值計價的影響。這對我們的全年收入造成了 8.58 億美元的負面影響，相應的補償費用減少了 5.3 億美元。正如我們在歷史上所解釋的那樣，經濟對沖的按市值計價的收益和損失與在等待期內延遲確認補償費用之間通常存在時間差異。 DCP 的收入和費用影響現在包含在我們的財務補充中。

Fourth quarter revenues were a record of $6.6 billion, and the PBT margin was 27.8%. Including integration-related expenses of $94 million, the PBT margin was 29.2%.

第四季度收入達到創紀錄的 66 億美元，PBT 利潤率為 27.8%。包括 9400 萬美元的整合相關費用，PBT 利潤率為 29.2%。

Total client assets were $4.2 trillion. Fee-based flows were $20 billion in the quarter, and asset management revenues were $3.3 billion. Net new assets of $311 billion in the year represents a 6.2% annual growth rate of beginning period assets. Fourth quarter net new assets were $52 billion with contributions across channels.

客戶總資產為 4.2 萬億美元。本季度收費流量為 200 億美元，資產管理收入為 33 億美元。全年淨新資產 3,110 億美元，期初資產年增長率為 6.2%。第四季度淨新資產為 520 億美元，來自各個渠道。

Transactional revenues in the fourth quarter were $931 million. Including the impact of DCP, transactional revenues declined 15% from the prior year. The decline was driven by lower levels of overall retail engagement and fewer new issuance opportunities, partially offset by increased transactions related to fixed income products.

第四季度的交易收入為 9.31 億美元。包括 DCP 的影響在內，交易收入比上一年下降了 15%。下降的原因是整體零售參與度較低和新發行機會較少，部分被與固定收益產品相關的交易增加所抵消。

Bank lending balances grew by 17% in the year, or 13% -- or $17 billion in the year or 13%, and stand at $146 billion. The pace of lending growth slowed for the second consecutive quarter and was largely unchanged sequentially. While mortgages and tailored loans continue to grow slowly, this was offset by paydowns in securities-based lending due to the higher interest rate environment.

銀行貸款餘額當年增長 17%，即 13%，即 170 億美元，即 13%，達到 1460 億美元。貸款增速連續第二個季度放緩，環比基本保持不變。雖然抵押貸款和定制貸款繼續緩慢增長，但由於較高的利率環境，這被基於證券的貸款的償還所抵消。

Total deposits rose 6% sequentially to $351 billion, driven by continued demand for our savings offering among our Wealth Management clients. We have seen success with our strategy to provide advisers with expanded tools needed to offer their clients choice in varied market environments. Further, the pace of sweep outflows also moderated in the quarter. As a result, we have a favorable deposit mix largely sourced from our Wealth Management client base with attractive pricing and options to meet our clients' needs.

在我們的財富管理客戶對我們的儲蓄產品的持續需求的推動下，總存款環比增長 6% 至 3,510 億美元。我們已經看到我們的戰略取得了成功，為顧問提供了在不同市場環境中為他們的客戶提供選擇所需的擴展工具。此外，本季度資金流出速度也有所放緩。因此，我們擁有有利的存款組合，主要來自我們的財富管理客戶群，具有吸引力的定價和選擇以滿足客戶的需求。

Net interest income was $2.1 billion in the quarter. The 52% increase from the prior year was driven by the benefits of the increased rate environment, an efficient deposit mix and strong lending growth over the last 12 months. Looking ahead, we do not believe that NII has peaked. We enter the year with an attractive deposit base with higher intrinsic value. While we expect the growth of NII to moderate from the pace of the last 2 quarters, we anticipate continued expansion in the first quarter of approximately 5% sequentially, assuming the forward curve is realized.

本季度的淨利息收入為 21 億美元。過去 12 個月利率上升的環境、高效的存款組合和強勁的貸款增長推動了 52% 的增長。展望未來，我們認為 NII 尚未見頂。我們以具有更高內在價值的有吸引力的存款基礎進入了這一年。雖然我們預計 NII 的增長速度將比過去兩個季度放緩，但我們預計第一季度將繼續擴張約 5%，前提是實現遠期曲線。

Investment Management reported full year revenues of $5.4 billion, declining 14% from the prior year. The challenging market backdrop led to lower accrued carried interest in several of our private funds. Also -- and also impacted our AUM, which declined to $1.3 trillion. Fourth quarter revenues were $1.5 billion. Long-term net outflows of $6 billion in the quarter were driven by equities and fixed income, reflecting the challenging public market backdrop, partially offset by demand for alternatives and solutions, particularly parametric customized portfolios, as well as our special situation strategies and private credit.

投資管理報告全年收入為 54 億美元，比上年下降 14%。充滿挑戰的市場背景導致我們的幾隻私募基金的應計附帶權益較低。此外 - 也影響了我們的資產管理規模，下降至 1.3 萬億美元。第四季度收入為 15 億美元。本季度 60 億美元的長期淨流出是由股票和固定收益驅動的，反映了充滿挑戰的公開市場背景，部分被對替代方案和解決方案的需求所抵消，特別是參數化定制投資組合，以及我們的特殊情況策略和私人信貸.

Fourth quarter asset management and related fees were $1.4 billion, declining on the back of lower average AUM, partially offset by higher liquidity revenues. As a reminder, performance fees are recognized on an annual basis, largely in the fourth quarter, which drove the increase versus the third quarter. Quarterly performance-based income and other revenues were $90 million. We saw broad-based gains in our private alternatives portfolio, though lower than the prior year. The diversification we gain from having fixed income, parametric customization and alternatives positions us well to perform through the cycle. We continue to invest in this business and leverage our premier global distribution capabilities to support future growth to meet continued global client demand.

第四季度資產管理及相關費用為 14 億美元，由於平均 AUM 較低而下降，部分被較高的流動性收入所抵消。提醒一下，績效費用是按年度確認的，主要是在第四季度，這推動了與第三季度相比的增長。基於業績的季度收入和其他收入為 9000 萬美元。我們的私人另類投資組合取得了廣泛的收益，但低於上一年。我們從固定收入、參數化定制和替代方案中獲得的多元化使我們能夠在整個週期中表現出色。我們繼續投資於這項業務，並利用我們一流的全球分銷能力來支持未來的增長，以滿足全球客戶的持續需求。

Turning to the balance sheet. Total spot assets were $1.2 trillion. Standardized RWAs declined by $9 billion sequentially to $449 billion, reflective of our prudent management of resources. Our standardized CET1 ratio was 15.3%, up 50 basis points from the prior quarter. Solid earnings, lower RWAs and gains in OCIs, partially offset by capital actions, contributed to our strong CET1 ratio.

轉向資產負債表。現貨資產總額為 1.2 萬億美元。標準化 RWA 環比下降 90 億美元至 4,490 億美元，反映了我們審慎的資源管理。我們的標準化 CET1 比率為 15.3%，比上一季度上升 50 個基點。穩健的收益、較低的 RWA 和 OCI 的收益，部分被資本行動抵消，促成了我們強勁的 CET1 比率。

We continue to execute our buyback program, and we repurchased approximately $1.7 billion of common stock in the quarter.

我們繼續執行我們的回購計劃，我們在本季度回購了大約 17 億美元的普通股。

The full year tax rate was 20.7% driven by the resolution of certain historic tax matters and the realization of certain tax benefits. We expect our 2023 tax rate to be approximately 23%, which will exhibit some quarterly volatility.

受某些歷史稅務問題的解決和某些稅收優惠的實現推動，全年稅率為 20.7%。我們預計 2023 年的稅率約為 23%，這將出現一些季度波動。

The firm's results demonstrate the ability of our business model to perform in an evolving environment. While there are, of course, uncertainties as we look ahead into 2023, we remain confident in the durability of the firm and the growth opportunities in the year ahead. Our combined $5.5 trillion of assets across Wealth and Investment Management provides us ballast. Importantly, our scale positions us well to capture the asset opportunity when the markets recover. Finally, while still very early in the year, we are encouraged by the levels of client engagement seen so far.

該公司的業績證明了我們的商業模式在不斷變化的環境中發揮作用的能力。當然，在我們展望 2023 年時存在不確定性，但我們對公司的耐用性和未來一年的增長機會充滿信心。我們在財富和投資管理領域的總資產達 5.5 萬億美元，為我們提供了壓艙物。重要的是，我們的規模使我們能夠在市場復甦時很好地抓住資產機會。最後，儘管仍處於年初，但我們對迄今為止所看到的客戶參與度感到鼓舞。

With that, we will now open the line to questions.

有了這個，我們現在將打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions) We'll go first to Glenn Schorr with Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）我們將首先與 Evercore ISI 聯繫 Glenn Schorr。

I appreciate all the slides, too. Okay. Two big picture questions, I guess. One, James, with the 200 basis points of excess over your CET1 requirements, the big buffer served you well, you've got a lot of buybacks. But also, it's dilutive to returns. And I'm just curious how you balance that, of keeping that buffer? Or is that buffer more temporary weighting on Basel III end game, final results? Or is that something you want -- you plan on sitting in? I'm just curious on your big picture resting spot for that excess capital.

我也很欣賞所有幻燈片。好的。我猜是兩個大問題。一，詹姆斯，比你的 CET1 要求高出 200 個基點，大緩衝對你很有幫助，你有很多回購。但同時，它也會稀釋回報。我很好奇你如何平衡，保持緩衝？還是緩衝對巴塞爾協議 III 最終結果的臨時權重更大？或者這是你想要的——你打算坐進去？我只是想知道你的大局是多餘資本的安息地。

Sure. Glenn, it's a great question, and it's sort of pivotal to the whole strategic positioning of the firm because right now, I think capital strategy is critical. There are a few things going on.

當然。格倫，這是一個很好的問題，它對公司的整體戰略定位有點關鍵，因為現在，我認為資本戰略至關重要。有幾件事正在發生。

Firstly, we have been able to reduce our peak-to-trough in CCAR because of the change in mix in our business. Secondly, because of the market environment, we've reduced RWAs. Just we've taken maybe a more prudent lean in. And obviously, we can reverse that at any point in time, which eats up CET1.

首先，由於我們業務組合的變化，我們已經能夠減少 CCAR 的高峰到低谷。其次，由於市場環境，我們降低了風險加權資產。只是我們可能採取了更謹慎的方式。顯然，我們可以在任何時間點扭轉它，這會消耗 CET1。

Thirdly, we have the Basel III, finally looks like it's coming to fruition at some point in the first half of the year. Although I don't expect that banks will be required to implement whatever the new capital rules are until the beginning of 2025. So while there's a pretty long time frame, a year is a long time in this business, let alone 1.5 years, I'd still think that it's prudent to kind of have some capital sitting there and just -- I'd rather be in a position where we have excess capital when, particularly in an environment where we don't see obvious places we'd put it to work.

第三，我們有巴塞爾協議 III，看起來終於在今年上半年的某個時候取得成果。儘管我不認為銀行會被要求在 2025 年初之前執行任何新的資本規則。所以雖然時間框架很長，但一年對這項業務來說是很長的時間，更不用說 1.5 年了，我我仍然認為在某種程度上保留一些資本是明智的，只是 - 我寧願處於我們擁有過剩資本的位置，特別是在我們看不到明顯地方的環境中它工作。

Now that said, we did our best. We bought back, I think it was $8 billion and -- $10 billion last year. We doubled the dividend the year before. We increased the dividend 11% last year. Obviously, we're -- I mean, it's fair to assume that we're going to continue moving on capital distributions.

話雖如此，我們已盡力而為。我們回購了，我認為是 80 億美元，去年是 100 億美元。我們在前一年將股息翻了一番。我們去年將股息提高了 11%。顯然，我們 - 我的意思是，假設我們將繼續進行資本分配是公平的。

But I like a number of 15%. We actually -- we triggered a little higher than that this quarter. We could easily drop down to 14.5%, that wouldn't bother me at all. But that will be driven by the environment and business opportunities.

但我喜歡 15% 的數字。我們實際上 - 我們觸發了比本季度更高的水平。我們可以很容易地下降到 14.5%，這根本不會打擾我。但這將受到環境和商機的驅動。

So great position to be in coming into a change in the regulatory outlook potentially. And we can always act aggressively, and we've proven we will do that when we have more clarity.

在改變監管前景方面處於如此有利的地位。而且我們總是可以採取積極的行動，而且我們已經證明，當我們更加清晰時，我們會這樣做。

I appreciate that. One other big picture is -- so Wealth Management's growing great, everybody's happy. I think historically and even now, you've been considered a very equity-centric from, whether it be wealth and asset management or your dominant equities platform. So curious if you're thinking about, it's possible with these higher rates, lots of clients shift to a more defensive stance. There's good income out there to be earned without much risk, or too much risk. If we see a more material shift towards fixed income appetite in general, do you think that in any way disadvantages Morgan Stanley as a firm in overall profitability?

我很感激。另一幅大圖是——所以財富管理髮展得很好，每個人都很高興。我認為，從歷史上看，即使是現在，你都被認為是一個非常以股票為中心的人，無論是財富和資產管理，還是你占主導地位的股票平台。很好奇，如果你在想，在這些更高的利率下，許多客戶可能會轉向更具防禦性的立場。在沒有太多風險或太大風險的情況下，可以獲得豐厚的收入。如果我們總體上看到對固定收益偏好的更實質性轉變，您認為這是否會以任何方式對摩根士丹利作為一家公司的整體盈利能力造成不利影響？

I mean, listen, our share of fixed income is 10%; banking, 15%; equities, 20%. So obviously, the fixed income pool grows. By the way, our share a few years ago, it was 6%. So the team under Ted and Sam Kellie-Smith has done a phenomenal job. But if the pool grows faster in fixed income, just arithmetically, you're not going to do as well as if the pool grew faster in equities. That doesn't bother me a whole lot.

我的意思是，聽著，我們的固定收益份額是 10%；銀行業，15%；股票，20%。很明顯，固定收益池在增長。順便說一下，幾年前我們的份額是6%。所以 Ted 和 Sam Kellie-Smith 領導下的團隊做得非常出色。但是，如果固定收益池增長更快，從算術上來說，你的表現不會像股票池增長更快那樣好。這並沒有打擾我很多。

I mean, we've never tried to be the FX, EM shop. We've never had the global rates trading, FX trading, macro businesses that some of the correspondent-driven commercial banks have had, the HSBCs and Citis. And that's a business model, just different. We don't have as big transaction services, so we're not going to have as much FX. That said, what the team have done in macro, under Jakob under credit and Jay Hallik in commodities, is really impressive.

我的意思是，我們從未試圖成為外匯、新興市場商店。我們從未有過一些代理驅動的商業銀行、匯豐銀行和花旗銀行擁有的全球利率交易、外匯交易和宏觀業務。這是一種商業模式，只是不同而已。我們沒有那麼大的交易服務，所以我們不會有那麼多的外匯。也就是說，在 Jakob 和 Jay Hallik 的帶領下，團隊在宏觀方面所做的工作確實令人印象深刻。

So I'm totally fine with that. And we clearly have the product. It's not like we don't sell muni bonds to our clients and we don't have fixed income underwriting, et cetera. We have the product. It's just arithmetically, given our share relative to the others, we wouldn't grow as fast.

所以我完全同意。我們顯然有產品。這並不是說我們不向客戶出售市政債券，我們也沒有固定收益承銷等。我們有產品。這只是算術上的，考慮到我們相對於其他人的份額，我們不會增長得那麼快。

By the way, I was happy to see, I think, equities was back at #1 this quarter, core franchise. And we're really well positioned, Glenn. I'm not bothered by that at all.

順便說一句，我很高興看到，我認為，股票在本季度回到了第一位，核心特許經營權。我們確實處於有利地位，格倫。我一點也不介意。

We'll take our next question from Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

我們將接受來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala 的下一個問題。

I guess maybe first question, just Sharon, following up on the efficiency ratio, about 72% for 2022. As we think about the journey from 72% to something sub-70% kind of in line with your strategic target, give us a sense of what it means. Is it this time? And are the businesses growing, which are more efficient, and that changes the mix? Or could we see that sub-70% even over the next couple of years? Would love to hear it in terms of both from a timing standpoint and what needs to happen at the firm to get to a sustainably below 70% efficiency ratio.

我想也許是第一個問題，只是 Sharon，跟進效率比，到 2022 年約為 72%。當我們考慮從 72% 到低於 70% 的過程時，這符合您的戰略目標，請給我們一個感覺這意味著什麼。是這個時候嗎？業務是否在增長，哪些業務效率更高，從而改變了組合？或者我們能否在未來幾年內看到低於 70% 的比例？很想從時間的角度以及公司需要發生什麼才能使效率比率持續低於 70% 的角度來聽聽。

Sure. So if you think about, we were -- we've been below 70%, right? So if you look back to the last couple of years, and there are periods of time where we are below, there's obviously 2 pieces to it, both the expense side and the revenue side. I think that as we continue to gain scale across the businesses, each of those dollars that we put to work will be more and more efficient.

當然。所以如果你想一想，我們 - 我們一直低於 70%，對嗎？因此，如果你回顧過去幾年，有一段時間我們處於低位，顯然有兩個部分，即費用方面和收入方面。我認為，隨著我們在各個業務領域的規模不斷擴大，我們投入的每一分錢都會越來越有效率。

As I highlighted, where we've been investing a lot of those dollars is on the technology side. I noted that in my prepared remarks, and we have seen that both from the cyber resiliency side and also just as we think about the broader integrations of all of the platforms that we've acquired over the last couple of years.

正如我強調的那樣，我們一直在技術方面投入大量資金。我在準備好的發言中指出了這一點，我們已經從網絡彈性方面看到了這一點，而且正如我們考慮過去幾年我們收購的所有平台的更廣泛集成一樣。

So as I think through it and I think about the timing, obviously, a different revenue environment will certainly help. And there's tremendous operating leverage, particularly as you think about the Institutional Securities business, which will help to drive that.

因此，當我仔細考慮並考慮時機時，顯然，不同的收入環境肯定會有所幫助。並且存在巨大的運營槓桿，特別是當你考慮機構證券業務時，這將有助於推動這一點。

Now if you go through each of the businesses, each of those businesses also exhibit operating leverage, right? If you have a constructive market environment, we've seen very strong margins also from the Investment Management business. We're on our way to achieve the 30% margin target as you relate to the Wealth Management business.

現在，如果您瀏覽每項業務，那麼每項業務也會展示運營槓桿，對嗎？如果你有一個建設性的市場環境，我們也會從投資管理業務中看到非常可觀的利潤率。當您與財富管理業務相關時，我們正在努力實現 30% 的利潤率目標。

So I'd say it's a balance of both, both the revenue environment and how that turns around, and then just continued discipline and making sure that we have the right investments as we think about our expense base going forward. So we've been extremely prudent and disciplined as we think about the base over the last especially 9 months that we've seen with this type of environment.

所以我想說這是兩者的平衡，包括收入環境和收入環境如何轉變，然後繼續紀律並確保我們在考慮未來的費用基礎時有正確的投資。因此，在考慮過去特別是 9 個月我們在這種環境中看到的基礎時，我們一直非常謹慎和自律。

Got it. And I guess just a separate question around markets activity. Obviously, highly uncertain how Investment Banking activity shakes out. But if the Fed were to pause and the central banks are done with the majority of the rate hikes, is that enough to drive a rebound in M&A, ECM, DCM? Or do we need a lot more in terms of just confidence returning to the market before we see IB activity picking up? Like what are you hearing for the clients?

知道了。我想這只是一個關於市場活動的單獨問題。顯然，投資銀行活動如何擺脫困境是高度不確定的。但是，如果美聯儲暫停並且中央銀行完成了大部分加息，這是否足以推動併購、ECM、DCM 的反彈？或者在我們看到 IB 活動回升之前，我們是否需要更多的信心回歸市場？比如你為客戶聽到了什麼？

I think -- sure. Why don't I start, and if James has anything to add? I basically say that from -- if we think about the Investment Banking pipeline, the pipeline itself isn't what's changed. What's changed is that movement from the pipeline to realized.

我想——當然。為什麼我不開始，如果詹姆斯有什麼要補充的？我基本上是說——如果我們考慮投資銀行管道，管道本身並沒有改變。改變的是從管道到實現的移動。

And when we think about what will cause that, that policy pivot, a peak in inflation, something that allows the CEOs that are actually having those conversations in boardrooms to have more confidence, both with their own economic outlook and -- or excuse me, our own company outlook, the economic outlook that hinges on it. And then also just price clarity and valuation certainty. Those are the things that, as you think through it, we would expect to see move from the pipeline stage into the realized and announced stage. So the macro environment that you laid out, where there is more clarity on the economy, and then also a reduction in volatility, should help that move forward.

當我們思考什麼會導致這種情況時，即政策轉向、通貨膨脹達到頂峰，這讓實際上在董事會中進行這些對話的首席執行官們對自己的經濟前景更有信心——或者對不起，我們自己的公司前景，取決於它的經濟前景。然後還有價格清晰度和估值確定性。正如您仔細考慮的那樣，這些就是我們希望看到從管道階段進入實現和宣布階段的事情。因此，您提出的宏觀環境，經濟更加清晰，波動性也有所降低，應該有助於推動這一進程。

Yes, I would say I think Sharon said it right. And I am highly confident that when the Fed pauses, deal activity and underwriting activity will go up. I would bet the year on that, in fact.

是的，我會說我認為沙龍說得對。而且我非常有信心，當美聯儲暫停時，交易活動和承銷活動將會增加。事實上，我敢打賭這一年。

CEO's job is to drive growth in their businesses, and they do that 2 ways, organic and inorganic. And I've been doing this a long time, and I've done both. And the only tricky part about inorganic, once you've got your strategy set, is timing. And sometimes, you've got to ignore timing. But if the market is really volatile, it behooves CEOs, particularly those relatively early in their careers, to be a little cautious, and that's what we're seeing. That will change.

CEO 的工作是推動他們業務的增長，他們以兩種方式做到這一點，有機的和無機的。我已經這樣做了很長時間，而且我都做過。一旦你制定了策略，關於無機物的唯一棘手部分就是時機。有時，你必須忽略時機。但如果市場真的動盪不安，首席執行官們，尤其是那些職業生涯相對較早的首席執行官們，應該保持謹慎，這就是我們所看到的。那會改變的。

We'll go next to Brennan Hawken with UBS.

我們將與瑞銀一起去 Brennan Hawken。

And just would like to wish Jon Pruzan best of luck. Looking forward to watching his next chapter play out.

並祝 Jon Pruzan 好運。期待看到他的下一章上演。

So Sharon, would love to double click on your expectations for NII. Hear you that it's sort of based on the forward curve playing out, and encouraging certainly to hear it's not peaked. But could you maybe give a little bit more color around expectations beyond forward curve? What do you assume for deposit dynamics? Do you think that the decline in sweep balances will continue to decline? What's underlying that?

所以 Sharon，很樂意雙擊您對 NII 的期望。聽你說，這有點基於前向曲線的發揮，當然令人鼓舞的是，它還沒有達到頂峰。但是你能不能給遠期曲線以外的預期更多的顏色？您如何看待存款動態？您認為清掃餘額的下降幅度會繼續下降嗎？這是什麼原因？

Sure. So let's take a step back and just say, why did we outperform in the fourth quarter, Brennan? And if you think about that, we obviously -- when we look at the liability side, we outperformed there, and we performed on the assets side. So if we unpack a little bit of the liability side, I take it into 2 pieces.

當然。那麼讓我們退一步說，為什麼我們在第四季度表現出色，布倫南？如果你考慮一下，我們顯然 - 當我們看負債方面時，我們在那裡表現出色，我們在資產方面表現出色。因此，如果我們拆解責任方面的一些內容，我將其分成兩部分。

As you highlighted, it's obviously about the deposit mix and also about pricing. So what we've seen in the deposit mix is that we have seen a moderation in the pace of outflows of those BDPs. Obviously, what -- where we will go from here, we'll need that to play out. But that is something that we take out into account when we think about the first quarter guidance.

正如您強調的那樣，這顯然與存款組合和定價有關。因此，我們在存款組合中看到的是，我們看到這些 BDP 的流出速度有所放緩。顯然，我們將從這裡走向何方，我們需要它來發揮作用。但這是我們在考慮第一季度指導時要考慮的事情。

The second point is, obviously, on the actual liability pricing, we did see an outperformance of that pricing. And when we exit the first quarter, we take that in -- exit, excuse me, the fourth quarter and take that into the first quarter, that's a benefit as well. So the Fed hiking 125 basis points over the fourth quarter and then being able to have disciplined pricing over the fourth quarter will serve us well in the first.

第二點，顯然，在實際負債定價方面，我們確實看到了該定價的表現。當我們退出第一季度時，我們將其納入 - 退出，對不起，第四季度並將其納入第一季度，這也是一個好處。因此，美聯儲在第四季度加息 125 個基點，然後能夠在第四季度進行有紀律的定價，這將在第一季度為我們提供良好的服務。

Okay. And then certainly different question. Wealth Management, if we look at the client asset trends, they were barely up quarter-over-quarter. Basically, total client assets in wealth were up about the equivalent of the net new assets. And can clearly see that self-directed and workplace were a little weak, probably because their exposure -- more exposure to the Qs and the more growthy stocks. Was -- but I would think, given what we saw in the markets, that there would be a bit more of a tailwind to client assets. Was there anything unusual that was happening there?

好的。然後當然是不同的問題。財富管理，如果我們看一下客戶資產趨勢，它們幾乎沒有環比增長。基本上，客戶財富總資產的增長大約相當於淨新資產。並且可以清楚地看到自我導向和工作場所有點薄弱，可能是因為他們的風險敞口——更多地暴露於 Qs 和更多的成長型股票。是 - 但我認為，鑑於我們在市場上看到的情況，客戶資產會有更多的順風。那裡發生了什麼不尋常的事情嗎？

No. Actually -- and what you highlighted is broadly correct in terms of where you see the broader exposure, the underlying exposure of those different channels. So it's just a function of the assets that you actually see as well as the mix of the underlying assets based on the channel.

不，實際上——你強調的內容在你看到更廣泛的曝光、這些不同渠道的潛在曝光方面大體上是正確的。所以它只是你實際看到的資產以及基於渠道的基礎資產組合的函數。

We'll go next to Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

接下來我們將與 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak 一起討論。

So wanted to dig in a little bit further, Sharon, as it relates to Brennan's question on NII. The 2 pieces I want to understand a little bit better is, one, what are you assuming for SBL growth in the coming year? Or even loan growth broadly across the wealth complex?

莎倫，所以想深入了解一下，因為它與 Brennan 關於 NII 的問題有關。我想更好地理解的兩件事是，第一，你對來年 SBL 增長的假設是什麼？甚至整個財富綜合體的貸款普遍增長？

And secondly, you saw really nice deposit growth in the fourth quarter. I wanted to understand, how much of that is a function of tax loss harvesting that you expect to be redeployed? Or do you think any of that deposit growth is actually going to prove to be a bit stickier?

其次，你看到第四季度的存款增長非常好。我想知道，其中有多少是您希望重新部署的稅收損失收繳功能？或者你認為任何存款增長實際上會被證明有點粘性嗎？

Sure. I'm just going to take them -- I'll take them in order. The first is, as you asked about loan growth. The NII guidance in the first quarter is not dependent on the loan growth projections. Obviously, the loan growth itself will be a function of the environment. As I said, from an SBL perspective, we have seen some paydowns, and it will be dependent on market conditions.

當然。我只是要接受它們——我會按順序接受它們。首先是，正如您詢問的貸款增長情況。第一季度的 NII 指導不依賴於貸款增長預測。顯然，貸款增長本身將受環境影響。正如我所說，從 SBL 的角度來看，我們已經看到了一些回報，這將取決於市場狀況。

Now the second quarter -- the second question that you asked me around the deposits and the deposit growth. Obviously, there are -- there could be a portion of it that does come from, as you mentioned, different inputs that you might see, be that interest, et cetera, in the end of the fourth quarter. But broadly speaking, what we've seen with the deposit base is that we have many channels, i.e., savings, for example, where we can begin to get those deposits and attract new deposits to the institution and to the bank from other sources, external assets held away that come in.

現在是第二季度——你問我關於存款和存款增長的第二個問題。顯然，正如您提到的那樣，其中的一部分確實來自您可能會看到的不同輸入，例如在第四季度末的興趣等等。但從廣義上講，我們在存款基礎上看到的是我們有很多渠道，例如儲蓄，我們可以從那裡開始獲得這些存款，並從其他來源吸引新的存款到機構和銀行，進來的外部資產被擱置。

And also, as you think about every piece of NNA that comes in over time, the $1 trillion that James mentioned, there's generally a portion of that, that's actually held from a cash perspective. And so that, I think, also needs to be taken account when thinking about the build as you go forward from the deposit -- a longer-term deposit perspective.

而且，當你考慮隨著時間的推移出現的每一塊 NNA 時，詹姆斯提到的 1 萬億美元，通常有一部分實際上是從現金角度持有的。因此，我認為，在考慮從存款開始構建時也需要考慮到這一點——從長期存款的角度來看。

That's great. And just for my follow-up. As it relates to the trading outlook, I thought you guys did a really nice job of articulating some of the potential sources or drivers of inflection in Investment Banking activity. Admittedly, we've experienced a couple of years of pretty gangbusters trading and markets activity. I was hoping to get your perspective on how you're thinking about the outlook for the trading businesses. If you're willing to go so far as to suggest what normalization might look like across both FICC and equities would be really helpful.

那太棒了。只是為了我的後續行動。關於交易前景，我認為你們在闡明投資銀行活動中一些潛在來源或變化的驅動因素方面做得非常好。不可否認，我們已經經歷了幾年非常火爆的交易和市場活動。我希望了解您對貿易業務前景的看法。如果您願意提出 FICC 和股票的正常化可能是什麼樣子，那將非常有幫助。

Sure. I would look at it more holistically from an institutional perspective. And so when I think about what does it mean? We entered -- I remember doing an investor conference in February of last year. And we talked a lot about what is normal? And is 2019 normal? And our answer then was we would expect to actually normalize somewhere between 2019 and 2020 from an industry wallet perspective. In fact, it looks as though the industry wallet has just been right around that range, within those 2 bounds. And when we look ahead, we would expect to remain above that 2019 level, and we'll have to see what the upside is.

當然。我會從制度的角度更全面地看待它。所以當我想到這意味著什麼？我們進入了——我記得去年 2 月參加了一次投資者會議。我們談了很多什麼是正常的？ 2019年正常嗎？我們當時的回答是，從行業錢包的角度來看，我們預計會在 2019 年至 2020 年之間實際正常化。事實上，看起來行業錢包正好在這個範圍內，在這兩個範圍內。當我們展望未來時，我們預計將保持在 2019 年的水平之上，我們將不得不看看上行空間是什麼。

But a lot of that growth in Sales & Trading has come from the divergent central bank policies and has also come from the fact that you have higher yields, right? So when you think about investing into fixed income product and you go into that going forward, that could create different dynamics than we would have seen over the earlier 2010 through 2019 or '17 outlook for Sales & Trading.

但銷售和交易的增長在很大程度上來自央行不同的政策，也來自收益率更高的事實，對吧？因此，當你考慮投資固定收益產品並繼續投資時，這可能會產生與我們在 2010 年初至 2019 年或 17 年銷售和交易展望中所看到的不同的動態。

We'll go next to Dan Fannon with Jefferies.

我們將與 Jefferies 一起去 Dan Fannon 旁邊。

Wanted to follow up on the wealth business and the rollout of the companion accounts and the 90% that you've headed. Can you talk about the behavior change or what has happened subsequent to clients receiving those companion accounts? And try to get a sense of what that could mean on a longer-term basis in terms of increased activity and asset flows?

想跟進財富業務和同伴賬戶的推出以及你領導的 90%。您能談談行為改變或客戶收到這些夥伴帳戶後發生了什麼嗎？並嘗試了解這在活動和資產流動增加方面的長期意義是什麼？

Absolutely. As James highlighted in his prepared remarks, the intention is to generally be in a position where we're able to offer the right type of advice and content and wealth advice over the course in time when we go into the workplace. And so when we think about the retention of assets or we think about the companion account rollout, eventually, what that's really doing is to make sure that we've provided content. We look at content, as I've said before, as a passport into the employees. And you think about that as financial wellness.

絕對地。正如詹姆斯在他準備好的發言中強調的那樣，我們的目的是總體上處於這樣一個位置，即我們能夠在我們進入工作場所的過程中及時提供正確類型的建議以及內容和財富建議。因此，當我們考慮保留資產或考慮推出配套帳戶時，最終真正要做的是確保我們提供了內容。正如我之前所說，我們將內容視為進入員工的通行證。您將其視為財務健康。

Something that Jed highlighted in his presentation in the spring is, generally speaking, when you see $1 of vested assets that come into the institution through the stock plan business, we actually see approximately $9 compared to that $1 that come from assets held away. That's the consolidation of assets once you have this advice-based channel and the advice-based relationship.

傑德在春季的演講中強調的一點是，一般來說，當你看到通過股票計劃業務進入該機構的 1 美元既得資產時，我們實際上看到大約 9 美元，而來自持有資產的 1 美元。一旦您擁有基於建議的渠道和基於建議的關係，這就是資產整合。

And so what we're trying to do is build on that. We have an FA referral process. We continue to use technology to help match the right individuals with the right FAs. We have better relationship management within E*TRADE and making sure that larger accounts are also connected appropriately to the right teams. These are all ways to build the right advice for the right clients, to provide them choice and give them a reason to bring assets held away into the institution.

因此，我們正在努力做的就是以此為基礎。我們有一個 FA 推薦流程。我們繼續使用技術來幫助將合適的人與合適的 FA 相匹配。我們在 E*TRADE 中有更好的關係管理，並確保更大的客戶也適當地連接到正確的團隊。這些都是為正確的客戶建立正確建議的方法，為他們提供選擇，並讓他們有理由將資產轉移到機構中。

Got it. Okay. And then just as a follow-up, you talked about the longer-term efficiency potential. But I guess the thing about fourth quarter, there was some severance. Looking at noncomp expense, as you think about next year, I just want to understand how we should think about the base level of expenses and potential changes and/or where you're looking to be more efficient into this year.

知道了。好的。然後作為後續行動，您談到了長期效率潛力。但我猜關於第四季度的事情，有一些遣散費。看看非補償費用，就像你考慮明年一樣，我只是想了解我們應該如何考慮基本費用水平和潛在變化和/或你希望在今年提高效率的地方。

I mean, we're always, as I said in my prepared remarks, looking at efficiency opportunities, where there might exist. We just, as you highlight, through the severance, we just had a December employee action. So we obviously walk in with a different level of comfort as we kind of think about the expense base going forward. But as we've done with our own resources from a capital perspective, we'll remain nimble and prudent, and look forward if and as the economic environment changes.

我的意思是，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們一直在尋找可能存在的效率機會。正如您強調的那樣，我們只是通過遣散費，在 12 月採取了員工行動。因此，當我們考慮未來的費用基礎時，我們顯然會以不同程度的舒適度走進去。但正如我們從資本角度對我們自己的資源所做的那樣，我們將保持靈活和謹慎，並在經濟環境發生變化時進行展望。

I think just on the efficiency ratio, it's worth pointing out, and Sharon mentioned this earlier. If you actually average the last 2 years, '21, '22, you end up right at 70%. '21 was about 67%, '22 at 73%. Part of it is revenue-driven. We took the efficiency that will take some expenses out in the coming year. We also want to feed the beast. I mean, we're growing parts of this firm.

我認為就效率比而言，值得一提，Sharon 之前也提到過這一點。如果你實際上對過去 2 年，'21，'22 進行平均，你最終會得到 70%。 '21 約為 67%，'22 為 73%。其中一部分是收入驅動的。我們採取了將在來年減少一些費用的效率。我們也想餵野獸。我的意思是，我們正在發展這家公司的一部分。

We're trying to -- we don't -- we're not of the view that we're heading into a dark period. Whatever negativity in the world is out there, that's not our house view. So we want to make sure we're positioned for growth. This thing will turn, M&A underwriting will come back, I'm positive of it. So we want to be well positioned for it. But we're going to manage to that number of around 70% as best as we can.

我們正在努力——我們沒有——我們不認為我們正在進入一個黑暗時期。無論世界上有什麼消極情緒，這都不是我們的觀點。因此，我們希望確保我們為增長做好準備。這件事會轉機，併購承銷會捲土重來，我對此持肯定態度。因此，我們希望為此做好準備。但我們將盡最大努力將這一數字控制在 70% 左右。

We'll go next to Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

我們將與 RBC 的杰拉德·卡西迪 (Gerard Cassidy) 一起去。

I have a bigger picture. James, you gave us some very good detail about the expectations for growth in the Wealth Management and the new assets, $1 trillion every 3 years. When you're looking at your 3 channels, the adviser-led, workplace and self-directed, where do you see the most growth? And which one has the best margin that can get you to that 30% goal?

我有一個更大的圖景。詹姆斯，你給了我們一些非常詳細的關於財富管理和新資產增長預期的細節，每 3 年 1 萬億美元。當您審視您的 3 個渠道時，即顧問主導、工作場所和自我指導，您認為哪裡增長最快？哪個利潤率最高，可以幫助您實現 30% 的目標？

Well, the adviser is the biggest, obviously, by far. We have 15,000, 16,000 advisers, a phenomenal business. The direct channel is, from the acquisition of E*TRADE combined with our Morgan Stanley Direct, great business. Obviously, it's a little more market-sensitive, a little more active, particularly on the option side, during bullish market environments.

好吧，顯然，顧問是迄今為止最大的。我們有 15,000、16,000 名顧問，這是一項了不起的業務。直接渠道是，通過收購 E*TRADE 以及我們的 Morgan Stanley Direct，偉大的業務。顯然，在看漲的市場環境中，它對市場更加敏感，更加活躍，尤其是在期權方面。

And the workplace is sort of the sleeper. I've said previously, I think, 2 years ago, I thought in a decade, we'd look back at this firm and say that the workplace was the most significant strategic change to happen over the last decade. I truly believe that the workplace employee, the retirement space, is sort of the next frontier, and we're right in the middle of that.

工作場所有點像臥舖。我以前說過，我想，兩年前，我想十年後，我們回顧這家公司時會說，工作場所是過去十年中發生的最重大的戰略變革。我真的相信工作場所的員工，退休空間，是下一個前沿領域，而我們正處於其中。

So as to margins, they're probably margin accretive in reverse order. In other words, workplace first, the direct second and the adviser third. That's simply a function of advisers. We have adviser payout. And God bless them for the jobs that they do, and we're very happy to pay them.

至於利潤率，它們可能會以相反的順序增加利潤率。換句話說，首先是工作場所，其次是直接領導，第三是顧問。這只是顧問的功能。我們有顧問支出。上帝保佑他們所做的工作，我們很樂意付錢給他們。

So I think it's a combination, Gerard, of all 3 of them. We will hit the 30% margin. I mean, we're almost there now in a more challenging environment. So that, I have 0 anxiety about. Whether it's this year or next year, it's coming, and all of them will contribute.

所以我認為這是他們三者的結合，Gerard。我們將達到 30% 的利潤率。我的意思是，我們現在幾乎處於一個更具挑戰性的環境中。所以，我有 0 焦慮。今年也好，明年也好，都來了，大家一起出力。

Very good. I appreciate that. And Sharon, you talked about the marks that you took in the corporate loan portfolio in the quarter, just over $350 million, I think you said. Can you share with us, how big is that portfolio? And where did the marks come from? Were they bridge loans? Or what drove those marks?

非常好。我很感激。 Sharon，你談到了本季度你在公司貸款組合中取得的成績，剛剛超過 3.5 億美元，我想你說過。你能和我們分享一下，這個投資組合有多大？標記是從哪裡來的？他們是過橋貸款嗎？或者是什麼驅動了這些標記？

So you have different disclosures as it relates to various loans and lending commitments that we gave. As we think about that line, it's inclusive of losses across the loan portfolio. And it was also worth highlighting there that we also mentioned the net -- the interest that you receive on the loans that we hold as well as the fees associated with those loans.

所以你有不同的披露，因為它與我們提供的各種貸款和貸款承諾有關。當我們考慮這條線時，它包括整個貸款組合的損失。還值得強調的是，我們還提到了淨額——您從我們持有的貸款中獲得的利息以及與這些貸款相關的費用。

We'll go next to Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

我們將與富國銀行一起去 Mike Mayo 旁邊。

James, last quarter, I asked you when will you be ready for Plan B if the pipeline doesn't seem like it's going to be converted? And you said you're at Plan A-. So just kind of looking for an update there.

詹姆斯，上個季度，我問過你，如果管道看起來不會被轉換，你什麼時候準備好執行 B 計劃？你說你在計劃 A-。所以只是在那裡尋找更新。

And in terms of the headwinds, if I hear you correctly, it sounds like the pipeline is still good but down quarter-over-quarter because some of those deals have converted. And also, you said it's still not back yet. And as it relates to the Twitter financing, you were the lead bank. Can you disclose any write-down that you had on Twitter or simply the leveraged loan category? So that's the headwind.

就逆風而言，如果我沒聽錯的話，聽起來管道仍然不錯，但環比下降，因為其中一些交易已經轉換。還有，你說還沒回來。就 Twitter 融資而言，你是牽頭銀行。你能透露你在 Twitter 上的任何減記或簡單的槓桿貸款類別嗎？這就是逆風。

On the other hand, I guess, there's been some reports that you've reduced headcount. So if you could just give us more color on that, especially Twitter.

另一方面，我想，有一些報導說你們已經裁員了。所以，如果你能給我們更多的顏色，尤其是 Twitter。

Okay. Let me try and unpack that a little bit. I'm not going to talk about Twitter. We don't talk about single names, as you would expect. You did see the line -- the other ISG line. You can assume that whatever marks we took on any single name are reflected in that.

好的。讓我試著把它拆開一點。我不會談論 Twitter。我們不會像您期望的那樣談論單個名稱。您確實看到了這條線——另一條 ISG 線。您可以假設我們在任何單個名稱上使用的任何標記都反映在其中。

And I think the way I think about this is we run a portfolio business. We obviously have single credits at any point in time that disappoint relative to others. But it's the total package. And the total package, if you look at it, actually turned out to be very fine given the environment we're in.

我認為我對此的看法是我們經營一家投資組合業務。顯然，我們在任何時間點都有相對於其他人令人失望的單一學分。但這是總包。考慮到我們所處的環境，總的來說，如果你看一下，實際上結果非常好。

So on the Plan B, I don't know if the rip we did -- we took about 1,800 heads in early December, would equate to a Plan B. It certainly felt like it. We've reduced -- we took a severance charge, Mike, which affected some of the efficiency ratio for this year, but will improve it for next year. And that was the rightsizing.

所以在 B 計劃上，我不知道我們所做的撕裂——我們在 12 月初拿走了大約 1,800 個人頭，是否等同於 B 計劃。感覺確實如此。我們已經減少了 - 我們收取了遣散費，邁克，這影響了今年的一些效率比，但明年會提高它。那就是精簡。

We were frankly a little overdue. We hadn't done anything for a couple of years. We've had a lot of growth, and we'll continue monitoring that. Obviously, with the way bonus pools work, we've reflected the performance of the firm in the bonus pool. So we're not very different from the rest of the world in that regard. And that obviously resets comp a little bit.

坦率地說，我們有點遲到了。幾年來我們什麼都沒做。我們已經取得了很大的增長，我們將繼續對其進行監控。顯然，通過獎金池的運作方式，我們已經在獎金池中反映了公司的業績。因此，在這方面，我們與世界其他地區並沒有太大不同。這顯然會稍微重置 comp。

So I feel good about where the whole package is. I'm actually, as I said earlier, alluded to, I'm a little more confident about the long -- medium-term outlook for the market. I'm not talking about the first quarter or 2, although Sharon said the first quarter has actually started well. But the medium-term outlook for the markets, I see the Fed has moved from 75 to 50, likely to go to 25. The next stop on the trend line is 0, and then to mention when they will start cutting. Not sure they're going to cut this year, but I think they will be 0 increases this year for sure. So that's the inflection point.

所以我對整個包裹的位置感覺很好。實際上，正如我之前所說，我對市場的長期中期前景更有信心。我不是在談論第一季度或第二季度，儘管 Sharon 說第一季度實際上開局不錯。但是對於市場的中期前景，我看到美聯儲已經從 75 移動到 50，可能會移動到 25。趨勢線的下一站是 0，然後提到他們什麼時候開始降息。不確定他們今年會減產，但我認為他們今年肯定會增加 0。這就是拐點。

And there's a lot of money sitting around waiting to be put to work. And that's our job, is to be the flow of capital between those who have it and those who need it. So I'm pretty confident actually about the outlook. So we're -- we've done our Plan B, I guess. We're not anticipating a Plan C. And we're going to watch and wait for a little while, but I feel pretty good about it.

而且有很多錢閒置著等待投入使用。這就是我們的工作，就是在擁有資金的人和需要資金的人之間流動資金。所以我對前景非常有信心。所以我們 - 我猜我們已經完成了 B 計劃。我們不期待 C 計劃。我們將觀察並等待一段時間，但我對此感覺很好。

We'll take our last question from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

我們將接受德意志銀行馬特奧康納的最後一個問題。

I was wondering if you could talk a bit more about the flows within Investment Management, both the long-term and liquidity. And how you're thinking about the outlook there, specifically in the long term?

我想知道您是否可以多談談投資管理內部的流動性，包括長期流動性和流動性。您如何看待那裡的前景，特別是從長遠來看？

Sure. Absolutely. The long term, obviously, what we saw over the course of this year was some movements in equities. That was the most notable. That obviously had to do with some of the higher-growth specific -- the specific funds that we have there. But I think you have to really think about those long terms from a long-term basis, right? So you're just focusing on this year, but there were many, many years of very strong flows into that business.

當然。絕對地。顯然，從長遠來看，我們在今年看到的是股市的一些變動。那是最值得注意的。這顯然與一些更高增長的特定基金有關——我們在那裡擁有的特定基金。但我認為你必須真正從長期的角度考慮那些長期的問題，對吧？所以你只關註今年，但有很多年非常強勁的資金流入該業務。

What's important is actually the diversification that we had because of Eaton Vance, where we have other products that we're able to offset some of the long -- some of the outflows in, say, the equity products, for example. So parametric is one where we continue to see inflows throughout even the course of this year. We're really focused on the secular growth trends, sustainability, alternatives and customization more broadly. Those are the things that we think, as we move forward, we'll be positive for those line items.

實際上，重要的是我們因 Eaton Vance 而擁有的多元化，我們擁有其他產品，我們能夠抵消一些長期 - 例如股票產品中的一些外流。因此，參數是我們甚至在今年全年繼續看到資金流入的地方。我們真正關注的是長期增長趨勢、可持續性、替代品和更廣泛的定制。這些是我們認為的事情，隨著我們的前進，我們會對這些訂單項持積極態度。

There are no further questions at this time. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you, everyone, for participating. You may now disconnect.

目前沒有其他問題。女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。