摩根士丹利 (MS) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to Morgan Stanley's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. On behalf of Morgan Stanley, I will begin the call with the following information and disclaimers.

早安.歡迎參加摩根士丹利 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。我將代表摩根士丹利在電話會議開始時提供以下資訊和免責聲明。

This call is being recorded. During today's presentation, we will refer to our earnings release and financial supplement, copies of which are available at morganstanley.com. Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. Morgan Stanley does not undertake to update the forward-looking statements in this discussion. Please refer to our notices regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures that appear in the earnings release. This presentation may not be duplicated or reproduced without our consent.

此通話正在錄音。在今天的演示中，我們將參考我們的收益發布和財務補充資料，其副本可在 morganstanley.com 上取得。今天的演示可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。摩根士丹利不承諾更新本次討論中的前瞻性陳述。請參閱我們關於收益發布中出現的前瞻性陳述和非公認會計原則措施的通知。未經我們同意，不得複製或複製本簡報。

I will now turn the call over to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, James Gorman.

我現在將把電話轉給董事長兼執行長詹姆斯·戈爾曼。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thanks all for joining us. As anticipated, the market environment, in aggregate, remain mixed, continuing a pattern we've seen over the past several quarters. Notwithstanding the net result for Morgan Stanley was we generated $13 billion -- a little over $13 billion in revenues, $2.3 billion in net income and ROTCE of 13.5%.

謝謝。大家，早安。感謝大家加入我們。正如預期的那樣，市場環境總體上仍然喜憂參半，延續了我們過去幾季所看到的模式。儘管摩根士丹利的最終結果是我們創造了 130 億美元——收入略高於 130 億美元，淨利潤為 23 億美元，ROTCE 為 13.5%。

Our concerns around the tight employment market, high commodity prices, inflationary pressures that may impact Fed policy provide additional challenges later in the quarter. But we are seeing increasing evidence of M&A and underwriting calendars that are building, and while we expect momentum to continue this year, given the fourth quarter has some seasonal considerations, we expect most of the activity to materialize in 2024.

我們對就業市場緊張、大宗商品價格高企以及可能影響聯準會政策的通膨壓力的擔憂給本季度稍後帶來了額外的挑戰。但我們看到越來越多的證據表明併購和承銷日曆正在製定，雖然我們預計今年的勢頭將持續，但考慮到第四季度有一些季節性因素，我們預計大部分活動將在 2024 年實現。

Meanwhile, it's our job to control what we can control. Firstly, we successfully completed the E*TRADE integration this quarter. That was a massive undertaking, and the expenses relating to that have been bleeding through the P&L for a couple of years. It involved just migrating 14 million accounts onto our platform. And honestly, it went incredibly well, really a seamless performance by the team. This conversion allows us to further execute on our strategy, building our revenue synergies across channels and attracting clients to our best-in-class advice offering.

同時，我們的工作就是控制我們能控制的事情。首先，我們本季成功完成了 E*TRADE 整合。這是一項艱鉅的任務，與此相關的費用幾年來一直在損益表中體現。它僅涉及將 1400 萬個帳戶遷移到我們的平台上。老實說，整個過程非常順利，團隊的表現確實非常完美。這種轉變使我們能夠進一步執行我們的策略，建立跨通路的收入協同效應，並吸引客戶使用我們一流的建議服務。

Secondly, on the capital front, we bought back $1.5 billion in stock. We averaged a nearly 4% dividend yield over the quarter and, at the same time, delivered a CET1 ratio of 15.5%, which is 260 basis points over our most recent regulatory requirement. We clearly have a significant capital buffer.

其次，在資金方面，我們回購了15億美元的股票。本季我們的平均股息殖利率接近 4%，同時 CET1 比率為 15.5%，比我們最新的監管要求高出 260 個基點。我們顯然擁有大量的資本緩衝。

Also, you saw the full details of the initial Basel III Endgame proposal. As you all know, this is a proposal, not the final regulation. I'm going to repeat that. It's a proposal. There is an enormous amount of energy being spent, conversations being had across industry groups and agency Board members, and I've been deeply involved myself along with Sharon Yeshaya. And we've been told many times that the Federal Reserve strongly welcomes comments on this proposal. Given this, I anticipate that the agencies will be open to considering thoughtful changes before it's adopted as a final rule. But let me be crystal clear, because of the buffers we have built, even if this proposal were implemented today as written, we have adequate capital to meet the ultimate requirement.

此外，您還看到了《巴塞爾協議 III 終局之戰》最初提案的完整細節。眾所周知，這是一個提案，而不是最終的規定。我要重複一遍。這是一個提議。我們花費了大量的精力，跨行業團體和機構董事會成員進行了對話，我和 Sharon Yeshaya 都深入參與其中。我們多次被告知，聯準會強烈歡迎對此提案發表評論。有鑑於此，我預計各機構將願意考慮在其被採納為最終規則之前進行深思熟慮的改變。但讓我說得很清楚，由於我們已經建立了緩衝，即使該提案今天按照書面形式實施，我們也有足夠的資本來滿足最終要求。

Needless to say, there are many years between now and then. In the quarter, Wealth Management generated net new assets of $36 billion. That's obviously below recent quarters. It's consistent with what I've been saying for a long time. These numbers will bounce around, and in any quarterly period, there are always idiosyncratic things. This year, we've had 2 quarters where we had some surprise on the upside. And in aggregate for the year, we're totaling net new assets of $235 billion year-to-date. Our annualized growth rate is at the high end of the 5% to 7% range that we've been looking at, and it's consistent. In fact, it's spot on with our 3-year target of $1 trillion for net new money.

不用說，從現在到那時還有很多年。本季度，財富管理創造了 360 億美元的淨新資產。這顯然低於最近幾季的水平。這與我長期以來所說的一致。這些數字會上下波動，在任何季度期間，總是會有一些特殊的事情。今年，我們已經有兩個季度出現了一些令人意外的成長。今年迄今為止，我們的新資產淨值總計達 2,350 億美元。我們的年化成長率處於我們一直在關注的 5% 至 7% 範圍的高端，並且是一致的。事實上，它完全符合我們 1 兆美元淨新增資金的 3 年目標。

Overall, this firm is in excellent shape, notwithstanding the geopolitical and market turmoil that we find ourselves in. My hope and expectation is to hand over Morgan Stanley with as clean a slate as possible and deal with a few of our outstanding issues in the next couple of months. I'm very excited about the future of this firm, its leadership, its strategy and its culture.

總體而言，儘管我們面臨地緣政治和市場動盪，但該公司狀況良好。我的希望和期望是盡可能乾淨地移交摩根士丹利，並在接下來的時間裡處理我們的一些懸而未決的問題幾個月。我對這家公司的未來、它的領導力、它的策略和它的文化感到非常興奮。

And I'll now turn it over to Sharon, who can discuss the quarter in greater detail. And then together, as always, we'll take your questions. Thank you.

現在我將把它交給莎倫，她可以更詳細地討論該季度。然後，我們將一如既往地一起回答您的問題。謝謝。

Thank you, and good morning. The firm produced revenues of $13.3 billion in the third quarter. Our EPS was $1.38, and our ROTCE was 13.5%. Results in the third quarter were solid against a mixed market backdrop. The firm's year-to-date efficiency ratio was 75%. Together, severance and DCP impacted the year-to-date efficiency ratio by nearly 150 basis points. As we invest for growth, our integration efforts have remained a priority. Integration-related expenses were $68 million in the third quarter, and we anticipate a similar amount in the fourth quarter as previously communicated.

謝謝你，早安。該公司第三季營收為 133 億美元。我們的 EPS 為 1.38 美元，ROTCE 為 13.5%。在複雜的市場背景下，第三季的業績表現穩健。該公司年初至今的效率率為 75%。遣散費和 DCP 共同影響了年初至今的效率比率近 150 個基點。當我們投資成長時，我們的整合工作仍然是優先事項。第三季與整合相關的費用為 6,800 萬美元，我們預期第四季的金額與先前通報的金額類似。

Now to the businesses. Institutional Securities revenues were $5.7 billion, declining 3% versus the prior year. Equity and Fixed Income results were in line with long-term historical averages. Investment Banking revenues remain depressed on lower volumes. However, leading indicators across advisory and underwriting progressed positively, evidenced by a notable increase of Morgan Stanley's announced volumes in the third quarter on a year-over-year basis.

現在到企業。機構證券收入為 57 億美元，較上年下降 3%。股票和固定收益業績與長期歷史平均值一致。由於交易量減少，投資銀行業務收入仍低迷。然而，諮詢和核保方面的領先指標取得了積極進展，摩根士丹利第三季公佈的交易量比去年同期顯著增加就證明了這一點。

Investment Banking revenues decreased to $938 million. The change to the previous year was driven by lower results in advisory and debt underwriting. Advisory revenues of $449 million reflected a decline in completed transactions due to lower announced volumes in prior periods. Despite the weaker quarterly results, we continue to see broad sector diversification of our completed deals, and the backlog reflects a similar pattern.

投資銀行業務收入下降至 9.38 億美元。與前一年相比的變化是由於諮詢和債務承銷業績下降所致。諮詢收入為 4.49 億美元，反映出由於前期公佈的交易量較低而導致已完成交易量下降。儘管季度業績疲軟，但我們仍然看到已完成交易的廣泛行業多元化，積壓也反映了類似的模式。

Equity underwriting revenues were $237 million. Overall, activity remained muted relative to historical averages. While increased confidence supported early September issuances, a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve and the resulting moves in interest rates serve as a reminder that this market remains window-driven.

股票承銷收入為 2.37 億美元。總體而言，相對於歷史平均水平，經濟活動仍然低迷。儘管信心增強支撐了 9 月初的發行，但聯準會的鷹派基調以及由此引發的利率變動提醒人們，這個市場仍然是窗口驅動的。

Fixed income underwriting revenues were $252 million, down versus the prior year, primarily reflecting lower noninvestment grade events. We are encouraged by the growing client dialogue and bake-off activity across sectors and geographies. The pickup in our announced M&A volumes in the third quarter speak to the trends we've observed at the end of the last quarter, but the landscape continues to evolve.

固定收益承保收入為 2.52 億美元，較上年下降，主要反映了非投資等級事件的降低。我們對跨部門和地區不斷增長的客戶對話和烘焙活動感到鼓舞。我們宣布的第三季併購交易量的回升反映了我們在上個季度末觀察到的趨勢，但情況仍在不斷變化。

As we look ahead, corporate confidence will largely be determined by the overall health of the consumer and the stability of input costs. While risks remain, including geopolitical threats, the underlying trends suggest activity is building, and there is a desire among clients to pursue their long-term strategic objectives.

展望未來，企業信心很大程度取決於消費者的整體健康狀況和投入成本的穩定性。儘管包括地緣政治威脅在內的風險仍然存在，但潛在趨勢表明活動正在增強，並且客戶有追求其長期戰略目標的願望。

Equity revenues were $2.5 billion. The business performed in line with historical averages, with relative strength in Europe and Asia. Prime Brokerage revenues were solid. Client balances were modestly higher compared to last year. The results reflect narrower spreads and the geographic mix of those balances. Cash revenues declined versus the prior year on lower overall global volumes. Derivative results increased year-over-year, reflecting higher client activity, with particular strength in Europe.

股權收入為 25 億美元。該業務的表現符合歷史平均水平，在歐洲和亞洲表現相對強勁。大宗經紀業務收入穩健。與去年相比，客戶餘額略有增加。結果反映了利差縮小以及這些餘額的地理組合。由於全球整體銷量下降，現金收入較上年下降。衍生性商品業績年增，反映出客戶活動增加，尤其是在歐洲。

Fixed Income revenues were $1.9 billion. Micro results increased versus the prior year, supported by strength in securitized products, both in agency and nonagency trading. Macro revenues decreased versus last year's elevated results, with lower revenues in rates and foreign exchange. Results reflect lower client conviction, particularly around the future of Central Bank policy. Commodity revenues increased year-over-year on the back of a constructive trading environment, particularly for oil.

固定收益收入為 19 億美元。受代理和非代理交易證券化產品實力的支持，微觀業績較上年有所成長。與去年較高的業績相比，宏觀收入有所下降，其中利率和外匯收入下降。結果反映出客戶信心下降，尤其是圍繞央行政策的未來。在建設性的貿易環境（特別是石油貿易環境）的支持下，大宗商品收入較去年同期成長。

Other revenues of $277 million improved versus last year, driven by lower mark-to-market losses on corporate loans, net of loan hedges and higher net interest income and fees.

其他收入較去年有所改善，達 2.77 億美元，原因是企業貸款按市值計算的損失減少（扣除貸款對沖）以及淨利息收入和費用增加。

Turning to ISG lending and provision. The allowance for credit losses and ISG loans and lending commitments increased slightly to $1.4 billion. In the quarter, ISG provisions were $93 million. The increase was driven by a continued negative outlook for the commercial and real estate sector. Net charge-offs were $39 million, primarily related to one commercial real estate loan in the office sector.

轉向 ISG 貸款和撥備。信貸損失準備金以及 ISG 貸款和貸款承諾小幅增加至 14 億美元。本季度，ISG 撥備金額為 9,300 萬美元。這一增長是由商業和房地產行業的持續負面前景所推動的。淨沖銷額為 3,900 萬美元，主要與辦公部門的一項商業房地產貸款有關。

Turning to Wealth Management. Revenues of $6.4 billion were strong, an increase from the prior year. The growth of asset management revenues more than offset the cyclical declines in net interest income, underscoring their durability. As designed, our asset-led strategy drives steady fee-based flows that support asset management revenues. With this in mind, we remain focused on asset migration into our adviser-led channel. This quarter, our long-term strategy took a critical step forward as we completed the last major milestone of our E*TRADE integration, successfully converting nearly $900 billion of client AUM onto the Morgan Stanley platform. This will continue to enhance our ability to introduce clients and advisers and seamlessly transition them into advice-based relationships.

轉向財富管理。營收強勁，達 64 億美元，較上年有所成長。資產管理收入的成長遠遠抵消了淨利息收入的周期性下降，凸顯了其耐用性。按照設計，我們的資產主導策略推動穩定的收費流量，支持資產管理收入。考慮到這一點，我們仍然專注於將資產遷移到我們顧問主導的管道。本季度，我們的長期策略向前邁出了關鍵一步，我們完成了 E*TRADE 整合的最後一個重要里程碑，成功將近 9,000 億美元的客戶資產管理規模轉移到摩根士丹利平台上。這將繼續增強我們介紹客戶和顧問並將他們無縫過渡到基於建議的關係的能力。

Moving on to the business metrics in the third quarter. Pretax profit was $1.7 billion, and the PBT margin was 26.7%. Integration expenses as well as DCP negatively impacted the margin by approximately 150 basis points. Net new assets were $36 billion, bringing year-to-date NNA to $235 billion, which represents over 7% annualized growth of beginning period assets. Net new assets in the quarter were supported by new clients and positive net recruiting into the adviser-led channel.

接下來是第三季的業務指標。稅前利潤為 17 億美元，稅前利潤率為 26.7%。整合費用以及 DCP 對利潤率產生了約 150 個基點的負面影響。淨新資產為 360 億美元，使年初至今的 NNA 達到 2,350 億美元，相當於期初資產年化成長率超過 7%。本季的淨新資產得到了新客戶和顧問主導通路的積極淨招募的支持。

The multiyear buildup of assets provide a foundational pipeline into our adviser-led channel, evidenced by fee-based flows of $22.5 billion in the third quarter alone. Asset management revenues of $3.6 billion increased 7% year-over-year. Higher average assets and the impact of cumulative positive fee-based flows over the past year drove the increase. Transactional revenues, excluding DCP, were $820 million, up 7% year-over-year. Results reflect opportunistic deployment of new capital by retail clients into alternatives, particularly into private equity and private credit. Bank lending balances were roughly flat versus the prior quarter.

多年的資產累積為我們顧問主導的管道提供了基礎管道，僅第三季的收費流量就達到 225 億美元。資產管理收入達36億美元，年增7%。較高的平均資產和過去一年累積的正收費流量的影響推動了這一成長。交易收入（不包括 DCP）為 8.2 億美元，較去年同期成長 7%。結果反映了零售客戶將新資本投機性地部署到另類投資中，特別是私募股權和私人信貸。銀行貸款餘額與上一季大致持平。

Growth in mortgages and tailored lending offset paydowns and securities-based lending. Total deposits of $340 billion remained stable compared to the prior quarter. Still, the deposit mix has shifted as clients continue to allocate rate-sensitive cash to higher-yielding cash alternatives available on the platform, including our expanded savings offering. In addition, the quarter saw consistent positive monthly inflows into equity markets from sweep balances, ongoing evidence of the improvement of the retail client sentiment.

抵押貸款和定制貸款的增長抵消了還款和證券貸款的影響。存款總額 3,400 億美元與上一季相比保持穩定。儘管如此，隨著客戶繼續將利率敏感的現金分配給平台上提供的更高收益的現金替代品（包括我們擴大的儲蓄產品），存款組合已經發生了變化。此外，本季的清掃餘額每月持續有正資金流入股市，這不斷證明零售客戶情緒有所改善。

Net interest income was $2 billion. The sequential decline reflects a continued shift in the deposit mix. Looking towards the rest of this year based on where we exited the quarter, we expect NII to trend lower. The magnitude will be a function of our deposit mix and the trajectory of rates.

淨利息收入為20億美元。連續下降反映了存款結構的持續變化。根據本季結束時的情況，展望今年剩餘時間，我們預計 NII 將呈下降趨勢。其規模將取決於我們的存款組合和利率軌跡。

Wealth Management business model is focused on steady asset aggregation, delivering strong solutions and advice to clients, while growing durable fees and expanding margin through the cycle. We are continuing to invest in our industry-leading position and the sustainability of our long-term growth. As the backdrop recovers, advisers remain well positioned to capture greater asset opportunity supported by our multichannel model that was built to attract new client relationships.

財富管理業務模式專注於穩定的資產聚合，為客戶提供強大的解決方案和建議，同時增加持久成本並擴大整個週期的利潤。我們將繼續投資於我們的行業領先地位和長期成長的可持續性。隨著經濟情勢的復甦，在我們為吸引新客戶關係而建立的多通路模型的支持下，顧問仍然能夠抓住更大的資產機會。

Turning to Investment Management. Revenues of $1.3 billion increased 14% compared to the prior year, supported by higher asset management revenues. Total AUM ended at $1.4 trillion. Long-term net outflows of approximately $7 billion were driven predominantly by headwinds to our MSIM active equity growth strategies, which continue to see redemptions consistent with the industry. Excluding the segment's outflows, year-to-date long-term flows across the franchise were slightly positive. Within alternatives and solutions, we continue to see demand for Parametric customized portfolios across both equity and fixed income strategies, a partial offset to the headwinds of the quarter.

轉向投資管理。在資產管理收入增加的支持下，營收達到 13 億美元，較上年成長 14%。總資產管理規模最終達到 1.4 兆美元。約 70 億美元的長期淨流出主要是由我們的 MSIM 主動股票成長策略的不利因素所推動的，該策略繼續出現與產業一致的贖回。排除該部門的資金流出，今年迄今為止，整個特許經營權的長期資金流量略為正值。在替代方案和解決方案中，我們繼續看到股票和固定收益策略對參數客製化投資組合的需求，部分抵消了本季的不利因素。

Liquidity and overlay services had net flows of $5.7 billion, driven by demand for Parametric institutional portfolio overlay solutions and our liquidity strategies. Specific to Parametric and across the entire franchise, overlay and long-term net flows in the quarter were almost $7 billion, underscoring strong trends in this business.

在對參數化機構投資組合疊加解決方案和我們的流動性策略的需求的推動下，流動性和疊加服務的淨流量為 57 億美元。具體到 Parametric 和整個特許經營業務，本季的疊加和長期淨流量接近 70 億美元，突顯了該業務的強勁趨勢。

Asset management and related fees were $1.3 billion, up 3% year-over-year on higher average AUM. Performance-based income and other revenues were $24 million, supported by the diversification of our balance sheet-light platform. Results were driven by gains in U.S. private equity, offset by weakness in Asia private equity and real estate.

資產管理及相關費用為 13 億美元，較去年成長 3%，平均資產管理規模較高。基於績效的收入和其他收入為 2,400 萬美元，這得益於我們輕資產負債表平台的多元化。業績受到美國私募股權收益的推動，但被亞洲私募股權和房地產的疲軟所抵消。

Our strategic focus on secular growth areas and the expansion of our global footprint remains in place. Ongoing investments in our businesses, including our market-leading Parametric franchise as well as our continued growth in innovation in private markets position us well to best serve our clients.

我們對長期成長領域和全球足跡擴張的策略重點仍然存在。對我們業務的持續投資，包括我們市場領先的參數化特許經營權以及我們在私人市場創新方面的持續成長，使我們能夠更好地為客戶提供服務。

Turning to the balance sheet. Our CET1 ratio stands at 15.5%, roughly flat versus last quarter. Standardized RWAs declined sequentially to $445 billion, reflecting our ongoing prudent resource management and market movements at the end of the quarter.

轉向資產負債表。我們的 CET1 比率為 15.5%，與上季基本持平。標準化 RWA 連續下降至 4,450 億美元，反映出我們持續審慎的資源管理和季末的市場趨勢。

We continue to deliver on our commitment to return capital to our shareholders, buying back $1.5 billion of common stock during the quarter. Taken in the context of the mixed environment, we are pleased with the firm's resiliency and our competitive positioning. As clients gain more conviction, we expect our institutional business to capture more opportunities, particularly in Investment Banking. This increased client conviction will also further support asset growth in Wealth and Investment Management. We will continue to press our advantages and execute on our growth strategies all while prudently managing our capital profile.

我們繼續履行向股東返還資本的承諾，在本季回購了 15 億美元的普通股。在混合環境的背景下，我們對公司的彈性和競爭地位感到滿意。隨著客戶信心增強，我們預期我們的機構業務將抓住更多機會，特別是在投資銀行領域。客戶信心的增強也將進一步支持財富和投資管理領域的資產成長。我們將繼續發揮優勢，執行成長策略，同時審慎管理資本狀況。

With that, we will now open the line up to questions.

現在，我們將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) We'll go first to Christian Bolu with Autonomous Research.

（操作員指示）我們將首先前往帶有自主研究的克里斯蒂安博盧。

I wanted to just touch on Wealth Management, a bit of a longer-term question here. As you mentioned, you've enjoyed really strong organic growth in that segment over the last few years, but it doesn't appear to be translating to revenue growth. If I look at the Wealth Management revenues, excluding NII, it hasn't really grown in 3 years despite gathering significant amount of assets. So curious how you're thinking about the flow-through from AUM or asset growth to revenues and then maybe more broadly, how you're thinking about the unit economics of your asset gathering strategy.

我想談談財富管理，這是一個比較長期的問題。正如您所提到的，過去幾年您在該領域享受了非常強勁的有機成長，但它似乎並沒有轉化為收入成長。如果我看一下財富管理收入（不包括NII），儘管聚集了大量資產，但它在三年內並沒有真正成長。很好奇您如何考慮從資產管理規模或資產成長到收入的流動，然後更廣泛地考慮您如何考慮資產收集策略的單位經濟學。

Sure. Actually, I think that interestingly enough, Christian, I'm pretty impressed with the resiliency that we've seen in the business. This is literally the explanation of the funnel that we've talked about. If you look back over the course of the last year alone, $260 billion -- or $235 billion, rather, of assets that we've captured. Then look at the fee-based flows, right? We continue to see increased fee-based flows. This past year, if you exclude the asset acquisitions that we had over the last couple of years, we are basically at some of the historical highs of seeing fee-based growth as we move forward.

當然。事實上，我認為有趣的是，克里斯蒂安，我們在業務中看到的彈性給我留下了深刻的印象。這就是我們所討論的漏斗的字面解釋。如果你回顧去年，我們就獲得了 2,600 億美元——或者更確切地說，2,350 億美元的資產。然後看看收費流量吧？我們繼續看到收費流量的增加。在過去的一年裡，如果排除過去幾年我們進行的資產收購，隨著我們的前進，我們基本上處於基於費用的成長的歷史高點。

You're looking at times since COVID, where we obviously had very high retail engagement, and you've been able to offset -- even with a decline in NII, offset those growth to asset-based asset management revenues as you move forward. It's that, that we are trying to grow. We're trying to continue to grow our asset management fees over time and make sure that we have the right solutions in place to offer our clients.

你會看到自新冠疫情以來，我們的零售參與度顯然非常高，而且你已經能夠抵消——即使NII下降，隨著你的前進，抵消基於資產的資產管理收入的增長。這就是我們正在努力成長的。隨著時間的推移，我們正在努力繼續增加我們的資產管理費用，並確保我們為客戶提供正確的解決方案。

Now let's take that forward. We have this mixed environment. You have 23% of our retail client assets sitting in cash. That is 5% higher, right, from the 18% on historical averages. We've begun to see retail investors put their cash into markets. The last 4 months consecutively, we've seen that movement into the market. This quarter alone, we began to see alternative growth in the new products, the growth in transactional revenues. We haven't seen that since the first quarter of 2022 before you started this rate hike cycle.

現在讓我們繼續前進。我們有這樣一個混合的環境。我們的零售客戶資產中有 23% 是現金。這比歷史平均 18% 高出了 5%，對吧。我們已經開始看到散戶將現金投入市場。過去連續四個月，我們都看到了這種進入市場的趨勢。光是本季度，我們就開始看到新產品的替代成長，即交易收入的成長。自 2022 年第一季開始升息週期以來，我們還沒有看到這種情況。

So in my mind, actually, the strategy is working pretty darn well, especially if you think about how we've been able to aggregate assets, migrate them into fee-based flows, look at transactional and see that grow and see growth in these new products and deliver them to our clients, all while these clients have dry powder to invest as these markets turn.

因此，在我看來，實際上，該策略運行得非常好，特別是如果你考慮我們如何能夠聚合資產，將它們遷移到基於費用的流程中，看看交易並看到其增長並看到這些領域的成長新產品並將其交付給我們的客戶，而隨著這些市場的轉變，這些客戶就有了可投資的乾粉。

Okay. Maybe my follow-up is just thinking about your ROTCE targets over time of 20%. The quarter is fine. 14% is nothing to sniff that, but it is some ways off that 20%. How should we think about the bridge from here? I know you've mentioned Investment Banking, but it's like a fairly small part of your business. So what's the bridge of 20%? How much of it is macro? How much of it is self-help? And so what is macro? What sort of operating backdrop are you looking for?

好的。也許我的後續行動只是考慮您在 20% 時間內的 ROTCE 目標。一季還好啊14% 不算什麼，但離 20% 還有些距離。從這裡我們該如何思考這座橋？我知道您提到過投資銀行業務，但它只佔您業務的一小部分。那麼20%的橋樑是什麼呢？其中有多少是宏觀的？其中有多少是自助的？那什麼是宏觀呢？您正在尋找什麼樣的操作背景？

So Christian, maybe I take that given Sharon just pummeled you, and I want to give you a little bit of a break here. By the way, the only thing I'd add to what Sharon said is when people have a choice of making 4%, 5% return by doing nothing, they're not going to be trading in the market. So the actual secondary lines in the revenues are the lowest I've seen for years in the last couple of years. As rates do eventually come down, they will come down. I don't think next year, but they'll come down after that. You'll see more activity in that regard. And actually, you'll see more money go up in the sweep.

所以克里斯蒂安，也許我認為莎倫剛剛毆打了你，我想在這裡讓你休息一下。順便說一句，我對 Sharon 所說的唯一要補充的是，當人們可以選擇什麼都不做而獲得 4%、5% 的回報時，他們就不會在市場上進行交易。因此，副線的實際收入是過去幾年我所見過的最低水準。隨著利率最終下降，它們將會下降。我不認為明年，但之後他們就會下降。您將看到這方面的更多活動。事實上，你會看到更多的錢在掃蕩中增加。

So interestingly, there's kind of an optimal point where rates are attractive for investors but not so high they keep them out of the market and not so high that there isn't money kept on sweep. So very different from the checking account phenomena you said some of the commercial banks.

有趣的是，存在一個最佳點，即利率對投資者有吸引力，但不會高到讓他們無法進入市場，也不會高到沒有資金被掃蕩。與你所說的一些商業銀行的支票帳戶現象非常不同。

But back to the 20%, I mean, I'd just say, as you know, we actually -- we were at 20%. So it's not -- this is not a -- this would not be a remarkable achievement. It's been like when I first came to Morgan Stanley and people asking if the Wealth Management business could generate, in those days, 15% margins. And I said, well, there are 2 people already doing it. So it's pretty obvious it can be done. So we've done it, and nothing structurally has changed. If anything, the firm's got stronger.

但回到 20%，我的意思是，我只想說，正如你所知，我們實際上 - 我們是 20%。所以這不是——這不是——這不會是一項了不起的成就。就像我第一次來到摩根士丹利時，人們問財富管理業務在當時能否產生 15% 的利潤率。我說，好吧，已經有兩個人在做了。所以很明顯這是可以做到的。所以我們已經做到了，結構上沒有任何改變。如果有什麼不同的話，那就是該公司變得更強大了。

We've been investing a lot. I mean this E*TRADE deal was -- it was a lot of investment to get that integration done. We decided to keep investing through the cycle on the funnel and wealth because we think over the next 10 years, that's going to pay monster dividends. The integration across all the Eaton Vance platforms, they were never really integrated as one platform across the different -- [Langberg], Calvert, Parametric and Eaton Vance are now sorting through all of that, which Dan has done a great job of doing.

我們已經投入很多了。我的意思是，這項 E*TRADE 交易需要大量投資才能完成整合。我們決定在漏斗和財富的整個週期中繼續投資，因為我們認為在未來 10 年，這將帶來巨額紅利。跨所有伊頓萬斯平台的集成，它們從未真正集成為跨不同平台的一個平台 - [Langberg]、Calvert、Parametric 和伊頓萬斯現在正在對所有這些進行分類，丹在這方面做得非常出色。

And then frankly, banking has been really weak. I mean under $1 billion is evidence of a very weak calendar and very weak M&A, and the pipeline we saw this quarter was really strong. So I don't think the announcements won't translate into revenues in Q4, but they will in Q1, Q2 next year. So just on the math, I think if we're running about $2.2 billion, we'd have to generate about another $700 million net a quarter. Just on the expense management, we could do things on expenses easily more than we've done, and you get a couple of hundred million from that. And then on the revenue side, as banking recovers some of the transaction stuff we just talked about and Sharon pointed out of these assets moving into annuitized product. And then I think Fed will move up from this point. You pretty easily get to the 20%.

坦白說，銀行業確實很弱。我的意思是，低於 10 億美元是日曆非常疲軟和併購非常疲軟的證據，而我們本季看到的管道非常強勁。因此，我認為這些公告不會轉化為第四季的收入，但會在明年第一季和第二季轉化為收入。因此，僅從數學角度來看，我認為如果我們的營運規模約為 22 億美元，那麼每個季度我們還必須再淨賺約 7 億美元。就費用管理而言，我們可以比以前更容易做費用方面的事情，而且你可以從中獲得幾億。然後在收入方面，隨著銀行業收回我們剛才談到的一些交易內容，莎倫指出這些資產正在進入年金化產品。然後我認為美聯儲將從這一點上調。你很容易達到20%。

So I'm -- I appreciate the question, and I'm not concerned about that long-term outlook. I think it's -- as it has happened and will happen again and frankly won't be that long.

所以我——我很欣賞這個問題，而且我並不擔心長期前景。我認為它已經發生了，而且還會再次發生，坦白說不會那麼久。

We'll go next to Glenn Schorr with Evercore ISI.

接下來我們將與 Evercore ISI 一起討論 Glenn Schorr。

So first one on Wealth Management NII. I mean the trends, I think, are in the range of what's been happening across the industry, so not overly surprising. But I'm curious if you could break down even qualitatively, how much of that sweep movement is coming in historical Morgan Stanley versus E*TRADE? I'm just trying to see what type of client is moving.

第一個是關於財富管理 NII 的。我的意思是，我認為這些趨勢在整個行業正在發生的事情的範圍內，所以並不太令人驚訝。但我很好奇，如果你能從定性上進行分析，歷史上摩根士丹利與 E*TRADE 的大幅變動有多少發生在其中？我只是想看看什麼類型的客戶正在移動。

And then to go back, you piqued my interest, James, in the comment you just made about not next year, but maybe after that. What conditions do you think we need to see for Wealth Management NII to stable and grow?

回過頭來，詹姆斯，你剛才發表的評論激起了我的興趣，不是明年，而是可能在那之後。您認為財富管理NII要穩定成長需要什麼條件？

So let's take the first question, which is the 2 different types of deposit mix. You're right. From a -- if you think about the self-directed client versus an advisory-based client that we've had in the historical Wealth Management franchise, one has proven to be somewhat of a stickier deposit base than you would see on the Wealth Management side. And I think that on the -- what I would say is the traditional Wealth Management side that we had historically had. So that does provide you with a sense of what's going on in terms of which client base is seeing that.

那我們就來看看第一個問題，就是兩種不同類型的存款組合。你說得對。如果您考慮我們在歷史財富管理特許經營中所擁有的自主客戶與基於諮詢的客戶，事實證明，其存款基礎比您在財富管理中看到的更具粘性邊。我認為，我想說的是我們歷史上擁有的傳統財富管理面向。因此，這確實可以讓您了解哪些客戶群正在看到這種情況。

On the potential growth of NII going forward, again, that's part of the same asset gathering strategy. Some proportion of these assets as they come over, be that into the self-directed or the advice-based relationship, will be held in some sort of transactional cash. So that will be supportive over time of NII to some degree from a deposit perspective. But that also provides us with lending capabilities and opportunities.

關於 NII 未來的潛在成長，這也是同一資產收集策略的一部分。這些資產的一部分，無論是進入自我指導的關係還是基於建議的關係，將以某種交易現金的形式持有。因此，從存款的角度來看，隨著時間的推移，這將在某種程度上支持 NII。但這也為我們提供了貸款能力和機會。

As you know, Glenn, we've seen tremendous, what we would call, sort of household penetration and being able to offer new lending products to our various client bases, obviously, with the SBL product. But we continue to see mortgages and growth in mortgages even in this rate environment for new purchases and homes. As we better understand our client base, we're able to do that more. And actually, bringing together this E*TRADE, putting everything on the same portfolio and the same franchise from a technology perspective is foundational in being able to integrate all of those bank relationships and what we used to call the bank rails that E*TRADE had for a broader wealth offering that should also help support NII as we look into the future.

如你所知，格倫，我們已經看到了巨大的家庭滲透率，並且能夠透過 SBL 產品向我們的各種客戶群提供新的貸款產品。但即使在這種新購買和新房屋的利率環境下，我們仍然看到抵押貸款和抵押貸款的成長。隨著我們更好地了解我們的客戶群，我們能夠做得更多。實際上，將E*TRADE 整合在一起，從技術角度將所有內容放在同一投資組合和相同的特許經營權中，是能夠整合所有這些銀行關係以及我們過去所說的E*TRADE 所擁有的銀行軌道的基礎。尋求更廣泛的財富產品，在我們展望未來時，這也應該有助於支持 NII。

I think -- I don't know on the second bit. I just think there's an optimal point. I mean we went from 0 rates to 5% in effectively the fastest period since the '60s, early '70s. Fastest rate increase. What's remarkable is we haven't had a recession by the way, but -- and I personally don't think we're going to. But with that, I mean, if you're an adviser and you've got a client sitting a lot of cash earning 0, I would hope you're telling them to put it in treasuries or something. So that's exactly what's happened.

我想——我不知道第二點。我只是認為有一個最佳點。我的意思是，我們從 0 利率上升到 5%，這實際上是自 60 年代、70 年代初以來最快的時期。增幅最快。值得注意的是，我們並沒有經歷經濟衰退，但是──我個人認為我們不會發生經濟衰退。但我的意思是，如果你是顧問，而你的客戶持有大量現金，收入為 0，我希望你告訴他們將其投入國庫券或其他資產。這正是發生的事情。

At around 2% to 3%, it becomes a different kind of discussion. So I think there's a trigger point. And you're seeing it across, as you said, the whole industry, and that's why you're seeing a different behavior set for people in checking accounts. So they haven't got to buy. The money is sitting in the checking account. If they're not paying attention, they're still getting, I don't know, 20 basis points or something.

在 2% 到 3% 左右，這就變成了一種不同的討論。所以我認為有一個觸發點。正如你所說，你在整個行業都看到了這種情況，這就是為什麼你會看到人們在支票帳戶中採取不同的行為。所以他們沒必要買。錢存在支票帳戶中。如果他們不注意的話，我不知道他們仍然會得到 20 個基點之類的東西。

So as rates come down, the total cash we have in the book, which is 23%, will be coming down anyway because it's just -- that's an abnormality related to where rates are right now. As rates come down over the next couple of years, you're actually going to see people much less price sensitive on what they're generating and a return on the cash and just using it as a liquidity account to manage investments going in and out.

因此，隨著利率下降，我們帳上的現金總額（23%）無論如何都會下降，因為這只是——這是與目前利率水準相關的異常情況。隨著未來幾年利率的下降，您實際上會看到人們對自己產生的資金和現金回報的價格敏感度大大降低，而只是將其用作流動性帳戶來管理投資的進出。

So I think in some ways, we overachieved relative to our particular business mix. So I'm quite encouraged about the future because of that. And think in fact, you're hearing some of that language coming out of the banks where they said -- I forget what word some of the other CEOs said, but it was effectively the same. They've overachieved in that it's sitting in checking accounts, and they're making enormous amount of money on that, but that's unsustainable. We've overachieved, and the rates are so high, everybody wanted to be in cash earning, not cash sitting dormant.

因此，我認為在某些方面，相對於我們特定的業務組合，我們取得了超額的成績。因此，我對未來感到非常鼓舞。事實上，你會聽到一些來自銀行的語言，他們說——我忘記了其他一些執行長說的是什麼詞，但實際上是一樣的。他們已經取得了超額的成就，因為它存在於支票帳戶中，而且他們由此賺了巨額錢，但這是不可持續的。我們已經取得了超額的成績，而且利率如此之高，每個人都想賺取現金，而不是閒置現金。

I don't know if that makes sense to you, Glenn. By the way, I have to say, I did love your comment about [fraud], talked about green shoots, somebody forgot to water them. I'd give you that one.

我不知道這對你來說是否有意義，格倫。順便說一句，我不得不說，我確實喜歡你關於[欺詐]的評論，談到了萌芽，有人忘了給它們澆水。我會給你那個。

That's better than a pummel. One quick one. Maybe I'll get the pummel on this one. I know it's the Board decision, but the longer the CEO transition announcement takes place, is there any time frame where it starts to put more strain on the organization or become a distraction as every reporter in the world is writing on it every day?

這比挨打好。快一點。也許我會受到這一擊。我知道這是董事會的決定，但執行長換屆公告發布的時間越長，是否有任何時間框架會開始給組織帶來更大的壓力，或者成為世界上每個記者每天都在報道的干擾？

Yes, about 3 years from now. No, wait listen, Glenn, come on. We said I will not be CEO. I said at the annual meeting, I wouldn't be CEO within a year. And I said that for a very simple reason that people didn't believe that I was going to leave because apparently bank CEOs don't. And I said I would. And when I say I'm going to do something, I'm definitely going to do it. I would leave at the earliest possible moment that the Board feels comfortable making that decision, and I've made that very clear to them. I think they've done a terrific job.

是的，大約3年後。不，等等，聽著，格倫，來吧。我們說過我不會擔任執行長。我在年會上說過，一年之內我不會擔任CEO。我說，出於一個非常簡單的原因，人們不相信我會離開，因為顯然銀行執行長不相信。我說我會的。當我說我要做某件事時，我一定會去做。如果董事會願意做出這個決定，我會儘早離開，我已經向他們明確表示了這一點。我認為他們做得非常出色。

Now that you've opened up the question, I'll answer it more broadly. They've done a terrific job, Dennis Nally and the Succession Comp Committee; and Tom Glocer, Lead Director on the Board. All of the directors engaged, really thorough process. And we're -- I don't want to give you an exact time because that's sort of a spoiler. I already did that apparently talking about Logan Roy once. But we're -- shall I say, we're well into it. And I do believe there are diminishing returns at some point in time. We're not there. The team is doing great. The businesses are moving forward.

既然你提出了這個問題，我就更廣泛地回答一下。丹尼斯·納利和繼任委員會，他們做得非常出色；以及董事會首席董事 Tom Glocer。所有董事都參與其中，整個過程非常徹底。我們——我不想給你確切的時間，因為這有點劇透。顯然，我已經在談論洛根·羅伊時這樣做過一次。但我們——我應該說，我們對此很感興趣。我確實相信在某個時間點回報會遞減。我們不在那裡。球隊表現很好。企業正在向前發展。

But yes, I want to get out of the seat and give somebody else a chance to see what they can do with it. And I think there's a lot of things. The growth opportunities in this company, now that we've set it up with so many planks that are solid, you have an abundance of choices. And just look at what we've done with MUFG in Japan, the so-called 2.0 that Ted has been driving with Hiro, the CEO of MUFG, of taking our Japanese business with them to a completely different level. And I think there's a lot of things we can do with them in Japan strategically taking advantage of the turnaround the Japanese economy. That's just one example.

但是，是的，我想離開座位，給其他人一個機會，看看他們能用它做什麼。我認為有很多事情。這家公司的發展機會，現在我們已經用這麼多堅固的木板來建立它，你有很多選擇。看看我們在日本為三菱日聯金融集團所做的事情，即泰德與三菱日聯金融集團首席執行官 Hiro 一起推動的所謂 2.0，將我們的日本業務提升到一個完全不同的水平。我認為我們可以在日本利用它們做很多事情，策略性地利用日本經濟的改善。這只是一個例子。

So yes, we're getting close. I'm certainly not a barrier to it. I'm -- I don't know if the word is enabler, but I'd like to get on with it, and I'll help in the transition as Executive Chairman for a bit, and this place will go forth and thrive.

所以是的，我們已經很接近了。我當然不是它的障礙。我——我不知道這個詞是否是推動者，但我想繼續下去，我將在擔任執行主席的過渡過程中提供一些幫助，這個地方將會不斷發展和繁榮。

The next to Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

下一個是美國銀行的易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉 (Ebrahim Poonawala)。

I guess just wanted to follow up on something you said, James, around the optimal level of rates, and you talked about NII. But if the Fed were to hike a few more times or if rates stay at these levels for longer, is there an argument to be made that just structurally the business will be challenged until we get to the other side of the rate cycle, given just client assets probably remain in lower-spread products? Just talk to us in terms of how you think about if rates don't get cut, is that a headwind to the business until we get to the other side?

詹姆斯，我想我只是想跟進你所說的關於最佳利率水平的事情，你談到了 NII。但如果聯準會再加息幾次，或者如果利率在這些水準上保持更長時間，是否有理由認為，在我們進入利率週期的另一端之前，業務在結構上將面臨挑戰，因為客戶資產可能仍保留在利差較低的產品中？請與我們談談您如何看待如果利率不降低，在我們到達另一邊之前這是否會對業務造成不利影響？

No, I definitely don't think there's structural issue. I mean, my goodness, the business is generating, I'm talking about wealth, 26% margins with the various costs in there. And I think it's 28%, Sharon, without them. If you told me a few years ago, I mean, I thought we'd get to 28%, but pretty much nobody else in the world did. So no, there's no structural issue here or there. I'm just saying as -- and I do think that the risk of making a prediction, I suspect the Fed will do one more rate increase at some -- by the end of the year, I guess, November, but that's likely to be it, and I do not expect the Fed to cut rates in 2024, but I do expect going forward after that.

不，我絕對不認為有結構性問題。我的意思是，天哪，業務正在產生，我說的是財富，26% 的利潤率以及其中的各種成本。莎倫，我想如果沒有他們的話，這個比例是 28%。如果你幾年前告訴我，我的意思是，我以為我們會達到 28%，但世界上幾乎沒有其他人做到了。所以不，這裡或那裡不存在結構性問題。我只是說——我確實認為做出預測的風險是，我懷疑聯準會將在今年年底前再次升息，我猜是 11 月，但這很可能就這樣吧，我預計聯準會不會在2024 年降息，但我確實預計在那之後還會降息。

So given that, we're talking about 12 months. The cash has largely moved. That's moved on the margin. You're going to have a little bit of NII impact over the next 12 months, but that's really not the real game. The real game is go forward after that. So -- and the minute you see the Fed indicate they've stopped raising rates, the M&A and underwriting calendar will explode because there is enormous pent-up activity. But Boards of Directors are sitting there saying, until we understand the cost of financing, it is very difficult to pull the trigger on some of these capital transactions.

因此，我們討論的是 12 個月。現金已大部分轉移。那已經移動了。在接下來的 12 個月裡，您將產生一點 NII 影響，但這並不是真正的遊戲。真正的遊戲是在那之後繼續前進。因此，一旦你看到聯準會表示他們已停止升息，併購和承銷日程就會激增，因為有大量被壓抑的活動。但董事會坐在那裡說，在我們了解融資成本之前，很難啟動其中一些資本交易。

So I think you're heading into -- and unfortunately, I'm not going to be around to enjoy it, but you're heading into a really good patch here. And I don't know if it's 6 months out or 9 months out or it starts 3 months out, but this thing is going to start turning, and then rates will be the kick when they start coming down. And as I said, people will be less focused on cash and accounts and more focused on investment opportunities. That's when you're going to see the double kicker.

所以我認為你正在進入——不幸的是，我不會在場享受它，但你正在進入一個非常好的階段。我不知道是 6 個月後、9 個月後還是 3 個月後開始，但這件事將會開始轉變，然後當利率開始下降時，利率就會受到推動。正如我所說，人們將不再關注現金和帳戶，而是更加關注投資機會。那時你就會看到雙踢球。

Got it. I guess a good time for you to hand off. Your successor will be thanking you for that.

知道了。我想你現在是交接的好時機。您的繼任者將會為此感謝您。

I hope so.

但願如此。

But question, I think Sharon, you mentioned about focus on secular growth, I think, international expansion. E*TRADE's done now. I'm assuming you're not doing any big M&A anytime soon. Just talk to us about international expansion, a lot of disruption on Wealth Management, private banking globally, what the opportunities are, where we are investing. Would love some color around that.

但問題是，我想莎倫，你提到了對長期成長的關注，我認為是國際擴張。 E*TRADE 現已完成。我假設您短期內不會進行任何大型併購。只要與我們談談國際擴張、財富管理的許多幹擾、全球私人銀行業務、機會是什麼以及我們在哪裡投資。會喜歡周圍的一些顏色。

Investing more broadly internationally, James mentioned the deals or what we've been working on, I should say, MUFG 2.0 between research and also our Sales & Trading side, we continue to look for opportunities. We have Arun Kohli, who's been working on our India franchise. I think that there are clearly opportunities there. Within India, we see a lot of opportunities throughout Asia. We've discussed different opportunities also all across the international franchise in Europe.

在更廣泛的國際投資方面，詹姆斯提到了這些交易或我們一直在努力的事情，我應該說，MUFG 2.0 在研究以及我們的銷售和貿易方面之間，我們繼續尋找機會。我們有阿倫·科利 (Arun Kohli)，他一直在負責我們的印度特許經營業務。我認為那裡顯然存在機會。在印度，我們在整個亞洲看到了很多機會。我們也討論了歐洲國際特許經營中的不同機會。

So when you look at -- think about Investment Management, that was one of the key points that we had talked about potential distribution of investment management, Eaton Vance products all over Europe. We've seen that. We continue to see products with Calvert, with various active ETFs that we're seeing all across Europe again, and we've been raising new AUM there.

因此，當您考慮投資管理時，這是我們討論投資管理、伊頓萬斯產品在歐洲各地的潛在分佈的關鍵點之一。我們已經看到了。我們繼續看到 Calvert 的產品，以及我們在整個歐洲再次看到的各種活躍 ETF，並且我們一直在那裡籌集新的 AUM。

So there are ways to distribute product across different geographies. There's a way to work with our strategic partners in places like Japan. There are ways to organically take advantage and move forward in places of growth that have more secular growth trends such as India. So there are tremendous opportunities where we see that we can take, like I said, product, client relationship and also work across institutional securities and various places in Investment Management. Dan Simkowitz has talked a lot about that of raising funds through those partnerships and being able to look for ways to work together to also source talent internationally as we work across the organization.

因此，有多種方法可以在不同地區分銷產品。有一種方法可以與我們在日本等地的策略合作夥伴合作。在印度等具有更長期成長趨勢的成長地區，有一些方法可以有機地利用並向前發展。因此，正如我所說，我們看到我們可以利用產品、客戶關係以及跨機構證券和投資管理各個領域的工作，從而獲得巨大的機會。丹·西姆科維茨（Dan Simkowitz）多次談到透過這些合作夥伴關係籌集資金，並在我們整個組織的工作中尋找合作方式，在國際上尋找人才。

And I'd just add, I mean, I was in the Middle East a few months ago. We're opening an office in Abu Dhabi. If you think of the combination of Middle East, India, Japan, kind of offsetting what's going on in China, and then strategically, I would be very surprised if this firm doesn't do some transactions in both wealth and asset management over the next 3 years outside the U.S. I think we have a game plan for it. Strategically, the team has -- works on a lot of ideas. And obviously, we want to make sure when we do it, we're fully ready and we understand all of the diligence issues around some of these relationships and careful about that. But I think the opportunities are clearly there.

我想補充一點，我的意思是，幾個月前我在中東。我們將在阿布達比開設辦事處。如果你想到中東、印度、日本的結合，某種程度上抵消了中國正在發生的事情，然後從戰略上講，如果這家公司在接下來的時間裡不做一些財富和資產管理方面的交易，我會感到非常驚訝在美國境外生活 3 年，我想我們對此有一個計劃。從戰略上講，該團隊已經研究了很多想法。顯然，我們希望確保在這樣做時，我們已經做好充分準備，並且我們了解圍繞其中一些關係的所有盡職調查問題，並對此保持謹慎。但我認為機會顯然是存在的。

We'll go next to Dan Fannon with Jefferies.

接下來我們將與傑弗里斯一起前往丹·範農 (Dan Fannon)。

I wanted to follow up on flows. Obviously, fee-based flow is strong in the quarter, but the total flow number came in. And understanding the environment was a bit softer here in the third quarter, but could you maybe talk about the channels where the pullback was seen the most? You didn't mention workplace. So I'm not sure. I would love some color there as well.

我想跟進流量。顯然，第三季的收費流量很強勁，但總流量卻進來了。第三季的環境有點軟，但您能談談回調最嚴重的管道嗎？你沒有提到工作場所。所以我不確定。我也喜歡那裡的一些顏色。

Yes. We've talked -- thanks, Dan, for the question. We have talked about the fact that within the workplace channel, I think in both in the first and second quarter, I've been asked about it. And it is -- people are using some of that cash. We aren't necessarily seeing that movement directly into people's accounts, and they're seeing actual -- taking the stock that they might get and actually selling it rather than investing in it, given what's going on with the economic environment, potentially inflation, et cetera.

是的。我們已經談過了——謝謝丹提出的問題。我們已經討論過，在工作場所管道內，我認為在第一季和第二季度，我都被問到過這個問題。人們正在使用其中的一些現金。我們不一定會看到這種流動直接進入人們的帳戶，他們看到的是實際的——考慮到經濟環境的變化，潛在的通貨膨脹，他們可能會得到並實際出售股票，而不是投資它，等等。

So that's potentially a theme out there. But obviously, that's dependent on the market. What is more exciting in my mind is actually where we did see the increase in NNA, which was on new clients and recruiting. So those were the 2 strongest components. And the ability to attract new clients, I've said it before on these calls, if you asked me 5 years ago, well before we bought E*TRADE and when we were just looking at the beginning of the modern wealth platform, many people ask, how will you ever grow because we weren't seeing new clients coming into the institution. The investments that we've made across the technology for Wealth Management has been what's been able to attract new recruits. So if you talk to recruits about why they come to Morgan Stanley, it's the products they can offer. It's the technology that we have. It's the ability to work with the clients. So you're seeing that continue. And then you're also seeing new client acquisition through the funnel. So those are all positive metrics. And again, you see that in the stock plan participants rising as well.

所以這可能是一個主題。但顯然，這取決於市場。在我看來，更令人興奮的是我們確實看到了 NNA 的成長，即新客戶和招募方面的成長。所以這些是最強大的兩個組件。吸引新客戶的能力，我之前在這些電話會議上說過，如果你在 5 年前問我，早在我們購買 E*TRADE 之前，當我們剛剛看到現代財富平台的開始時，很多人問，因為我們沒有看到新客戶進入該機構，您將如何成長。我們在財富管理技術方面進行的投資能夠吸引新員工。因此，如果你與新員工談論他們來到摩根士丹利的原因，那就是他們可以提供的產品。這是我們擁有的技術。這是與客戶合作的能力。所以你會看到這種情況還在繼續。然後您還會看到透過該管道獲取新客戶。所以這些都是正面的指標。再次，您會看到股票計劃參與者也在增加。

Great. And then just a follow-up on Investment Banking and understanding that the environment isn't ideal, but you did talk about increasing announcements. So I was hoping you could provide some context maybe on the sponsor community and maybe how those conversations are happening and just overall backlog levels versus kind of last quarter.

偉大的。然後是投資銀行業的後續行動，並了解環境並不理想，但您確實談到了增加公告。因此，我希望您能提供一些有關贊助商社區的背景信息，也許這些對話是如何發生的，以及與上季度相比的總體積壓水平。

Yes. The backlog itself, we've continued to rise and to build. Overall, over the course of the year, we've talked a lot about sort of being at some of the highest levels that we've seen across all, be it underwriting or on the advisory side. So all of that is optimistic. Financial sponsors, we have talked about dry powder continue to see that. Obviously, there was some valuation gaps. And as James said, the more clarity that we see around the stabilization of rates, the easier that will be around deployment. And then some key themes that we have witnessed when we look at the backlog or we think about the transactions that are happening, one is the financial sector consolidation. That's a theme that's emerging within our pipeline and our discussions in the boardroom. The second is the energy transitions that -- again, that is important to some of the transactions that we are either -- we have worked on and that we've talked through.

是的。積壓本身，我們一直在不斷增加和建造。總體而言，在這一年中，我們談論了很多關於達到我們所見過的最高水平的問題，無論是承保還是諮詢方面。所以這一切都是樂觀的。金融贊助商，我們已經講過乾粉繼續看到了。顯然，存在一些估值差距。正如詹姆斯所說，我們對利率穩定的了解越清晰，部署就越容易。然後，當我們查看積壓訂單或思考正在發生的交易時，我們看到了一些關鍵主題，其中之一是金融部門整合。這是我們的流程和董事會討論中出現的一個主題。第二個是能源轉型，這對我們所做的一些交易很重要，我們已經在研究和討論過。

And in addition to that, we are seeing emerging themes around technology, around AI, around how companies want to use that when they're thinking about strategic focus and objectives. And all of these themes are part and parcel to the fact that you can see there's -- it's a diversified backlog. And we're investing in the franchise. We've made some key hires to help us navigate through this more complex landscape and places where we see opportunities to execute as we move forward.

除此之外，我們還看到圍繞著科技、人工智慧以及公司在考慮策略重點和目標時如何使用這些技術的新興主題。所有這些主題都是您可以看到的事實的重要組成部分——這是一個多元化的積壓工作。我們正在投資特許經營權。我們已經聘請了一些關鍵人員來幫助我們應對這個更複雜的環境以及我們在前進過程中看到執行機會的地方。

We'll go next to Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

接下來我們將採訪沃爾夫研究中心的史蒂文·丘巴克。

So I wanted to start with a question on just the expense and margin outlook. Expenses were actually well managed in the quarter. But one of your peers did talk about competition intensifying in terms of the war for talent within investment banking and trading. It feels like that's been the case for the better part of a number of years in Wealth Management. I was hoping you could just speak to your expense growth outlook and your confidence in terms of your ability to achieve the firm-wide margin target of 30%.

所以我想從一個關於費用和利潤前景的問題開始。本季度的費用實際上管理得很好。但你的一位同行確實談到了投資銀行和交易領域的人才爭奪戰加劇了競爭。感覺財富管理行業多年來的大部分時間都是這種情況。我希望您能談談您的費用成長前景以及您對實現全公司 30% 利潤率目標的信心。

So when you think about the expenses, we are looking at expenses through the cycle. We've unfortunately -- we have taken actions. We took actions both at the end of last year, and then we took one in the spring as well. We've discussed those severance costs throughout the course of the year. And so we've been managing our expense base to better understand and to sort of think about it against the backdrop of what environment are we seeing.

因此，當您考慮費用時，我們正在考慮整個週期的費用。不幸的是，我們已經採取了行動。我們在去年年底採取了行動，然後在春季也採取了行動。我們全年都在討論這些遣散費。因此，我們一直在管理我們的支出基礎，以便更好地理解並在我們所看到的環境背景下思考。

So while there's always a war for talent. We do pay for talent, and we pay competitively for that talent. But we have to think about it in the context of where we see the potential growth opportunities. And that is also -- we have to take into account the investments that we're making. And that's around processes and investing in technology. And when you look at the technology that we're investing in, we should see operating efficiencies and leverage as you go forward. So that's modernization of the plant. You're going to have optimization. And you're also going to work on things like making sure that you have the right risk and control framework to give ourselves an opportunity to grow.

因此，人才之戰始終存在。我們確實為人才支付報酬，而且我們為這些人才支付具有競爭力的報酬。但我們必須在我們看到潛在成長機會的背景下考慮這個問題。這也是——我們必須考慮到我們正在進行的投資。這涉及流程和技術投資。當您查看我們正在投資的技術時，我們應該看到您前進時的營運效率和槓桿作用。這就是工廠的現代化。你將會得到優化。您還將致力於確保擁有正確的風險和控制框架，以便為我們提供成長的機會。

So just what it means -- to boil it down is it's a balance, right, of investing for the future but also making sure that you have the right invest -- the right expense base, rather, as you move forward and you can take advantage and see those efficiency gains and really the operating leverage that James is talking about as we move forward through the cycle.

所以它的意思是——歸根結底，這是一種平衡，對的，對未來的投資，但也要確保你有正確的投資——正確的費用基礎，相反，當你向前邁進時，你可以採取當我們在這個週期中前進時，看看詹姆斯所說的效率提升和營運槓桿。

I just say one thing on the war for talent. Yes. I mean, obviously, really high performers are in demand across the street, but we've actually had the opposite issue. We've had very low attrition, which is why we did some of the expense initiatives that Sharon talked about. And I guess we should feel flattered. It's a reflection of the culture and the stability of the firm. But also that's -- why we took the initiative is because you've got to bring in talented people and new generations to keep growing this place. So onesies and twosies, yes, you can lose somebody, a senior person here or there, and we've hired a bunch in banking, as Sharon said, but the broader -- across the 80,000 people we've got is the broader message is attrition has been remarkably low, and that's something that we've just got to work through.

關於人才爭奪戰，我只說一件事。是的。我的意思是，顯然，街對面需要真正高績效的人才，但我們實際上遇到了相反的問題。我們的人員流失率非常低，這就是為什麼我們採取了莎倫談到的一些費用措施。我想我們應該感到受寵若驚。它反映了公司的文化和穩定性。但這也是我們採取這項措施的原因是因為你必須引進人才和新一代來維持這個地方的發展。因此，是的，你可能會失去一個人，一個資深人士，正如莎倫所說，我們在銀行業僱用了很多人，但更廣泛的——我們擁有的 80,000 名員工傳達了更廣泛的信息人員流失率非常低，這是我們必須解決的問題。

That's great. And for my follow-up, just a question on capital. James, you noted that pro forma Basel III Endgame, your capital requirements approximate your current capital base. But how much capital cushion do you plan on running with, also how it informs your buyback? And you addressed the question on ROTCE target, curious of that, 20% target contemplates higher capital under Basel III. So I know there's a lot in there, capital cushion, buyback level, 20% ROTCE target.

那太棒了。對於我的後續行動，只是一個關於資本的問題。詹姆斯，您注意到，在《巴塞爾協議 III 終局之戰》中，您的資本需求接近您目前的資本基礎。但您計劃使用多少資本緩衝，以及它如何影響您的回購？您談到了關於 ROTCE 目標的問題，奇怪的是，20% 的目標考慮了巴塞爾 III 下的更高資本。所以我知道其中有很多內容，資本緩衝、回購水準、20% ROTCE 目標。

Going to have to write this down. There's an old guy. This is a lot to remember. It's not going to affect ROTCE. We're not going to be increasing capital. So that one you can put to bed. The cushion, it's a function of where the rules come out. I mean I've been very clear about this day 1. I do not believe the proposal as is will be what we see when the comment period is over. I do not believe that. I have no special insight except that obviously, I spent a lot of time with the regulatory community, which I've done for 14 years.

必須把這個寫下來。有一個老傢伙。這是很多值得記住的事。這不會影響 ROTCE。我們不會增加資本。這樣你就可以把它放到床上了。緩衝，它是規則出現的函數。我的意思是，我對這一天已經非常清楚了 1。我不相信該提案將是我們在徵求意見期結束後看到的內容。我不相信。我沒有什麼特別的見解，只是很明顯，我花了很多時間與監管界打交道，我已經在這方面工作了 14 年。

I think everybody understands, for example, the way operating risk, RWAs have been calculated in a sort of blunt instrument based on fees is not -- it wasn't what (inaudible) and do that. We're going to take that rule out years ago, and they ended up just not getting around to it, and suddenly, we're complying with something that they didn't even want and don't -- they don't use in Europe.

我想每個人都明白，例如，操作風險、風險加權資產（RWA）是用一種基於費用的生硬工具來計算的，這不是——這不是（聽不清楚）並這樣做。幾年前我們就打算取消這個規則，但他們最終沒有抽出時間來遵守，突然之間，我們遵守了他們甚至不想要也不想做的事情——他們不使用在歐洲。

So it's just not going to happen the way it is, and that's not being (inaudible). That's just -- that's my judgment call. That said is -- what we want to frame with investors is, God forbid, it does happen exactly as is. The rule becomes proposal rule tomorrow. Then we're fine. So we're certainly not going to be -- we're not going to be raising capital. We're going to continue with our buyback through this period.

所以事情不會像現在這樣發生，也不會（聽不清楚）。這只是——這就是我的判斷。也就是說，我們想向投資人傳達的是，上帝保佑，事情確實會照原樣發生。該規則明天將成為提案規則。那我們就沒事了。所以我們當然不會——我們不會籌集資金。在此期間我們將繼續回購。

The final implementation of this thing is going to be 2028. There's a lot that's going to happen between now and then. But listen, this is the first time you've had members of the Fed Board and the FDIC, I think, come out in advance of a rule being promulgated, if that's the word, saying that they're not comfortable with it. So there's clearly debate within the regulatory institutions, and if you get past the why we need more capital, which I don't think the industry does, into, well, what should it be, the only place it clearly shouldn't be is punishing businesses that have fees attached to them, whether it's credit cards or wealth management. That's not the regulatory intent.

這件事的最終實施將在 2028 年。從現在到那時將會發生很多事情。但聽著，我認為，這是第一次讓聯準會理事會和聯邦存款保險公司的成員在規則頒布之前站出來表示他們對此感到不滿意。因此，監管機構內部顯然存在爭論，如果你超越了為什麼我們需要更多資本（我認為這個行業不會這樣做），那麼，它應該是什麼，唯一明顯不應該的地方是懲罰附加費用的企業，無論是信用卡還是財富管理。這不是監理的本意。

And they've told me that, and therefore, I believe that will change. So on the cushion, it's frankly a function of where the rule ends up. We'll carry whatever appropriate prudent cushion we need to carry on. Do we create more capital? No, not unless we grow the business to reflect that, that we can put it to work. And thirdly, will we continue buybacks? Yes. And I'm sure Sharon can give more play from what we think about on the buyback side and dividends for that matter.

他們告訴我這一點，因此我相信這種情況將會改變。因此，坦白說，這取決於規則最終的結果。我們將攜帶我們需要攜帶的任何適當的謹慎緩衝。我們創造更多資本嗎？不，除非我們發展業務以反映這一點，否則我們可以將其付諸實踐。第三，我們會繼續回購嗎？是的。我相信沙龍可以從我們對回購和股息的思考中發揮更多作用。

Yes. On the capital return strategy, we've been really clear that we expect to continue to return capital to our shareholders. Dan said that at the September conference, even when you think about all of Basel. We -- first and foremost, we've talked about the dividend strategy. We doubled our dividend a few years ago, and we've continually increased the dividend. That increase has been reflective of the growth in stable revenues that we've had more broadly as an institution. Then, of course, buyback -- committed to a buyback, but the size of a buyback is always going to be opportunistic when you think about what the alternatives are for capital usage, right?

是的。在資本回報策略上，我們非常明確，我們希望繼續向股東回報資本。丹在 9 月的會議上說道，即使你想到整個巴塞爾。首先，我們已經討論了股利策略。幾年前我們將股息增加了一倍，我們還在不斷增加股息。這一增長反映了我們作為一個機構更廣泛的穩定收入的成長。然後，當然，回購——致力於回購，但當你考慮資本使用的替代方案時，回購的規模總是會是機會主義的，對嗎？

So what are the opportunities that we see going forward, and we'll make the right decision for what we think the right decision is for the company and for our shareholders around the uses of the capital, but we increased the buyback this quarter. So that shows you sort of how we feel about being able to return capital to our shareholders when you compare this quarter over the course of last quarter, moving from $1 billion to $1.5 billion.

那麼我們未來看到的機會是什麼，我們將圍繞資本的使用做出我們認為對公司和我們的股東來說正確的決定，但我們增加了本季的回購。因此，當您將本季與上個季度（從 10 億美元增至 15 億美元）進行比較時，這可以告訴您我們對於能夠向股東返還資本的感受。

We'll go next to Devin Ryan with JMP Securities.

接下來我們將採訪 JMP 證券公司的 Devin Ryan。

I guess first question just on the E*TRADE conversion. I'm sure good to get on the other side of that, and you spoke to some of the benefits, I think, more on the flow side and revenue side. Just curious if there's any kind of more material expense saving opportunities, just assuming there's probably some redundancies there that can be removed and then any other efficiencies that might exist.

我想第一個問題只是關於 E*TRADE 轉換。我確信能夠從另一方面來看，你談到了一些好處，我認為，更多的是在流量方面和收入方面。只是好奇是否有更多節省物質開支的機會，假設可能存在一些可以消除的冗餘，然後可能存在任何其他效率。

Look, we haven't really -- this deal was never contemplated from a cost synergy perspective. It's really been around revenue synergies. Will there be potential savings on the margin? It's possible, but that's not really the point of the transaction. What I think is more fundamentally interesting is that a couple of things when you think about the E*TRADE integration, other than the fact that it went very smoothly as it relates to the clients themselves, it creates a really clear foundation when we're trying to migrate clients from channels and move them.

聽著，我們實際上從未從成本協同的角度考慮過這筆交易。這確實是圍繞著收入協同效應。邊際上是否有潛在的節省？有可能，但這並不是交易的真正目的。我認為更重要的是，當您考慮 E*TRADE 整合時，有幾件事除了它與客戶本身相關而進行得非常順利這一事實之外，當我們試圖將客戶從渠道遷移並轉移。

So give somebody from an E*TRADE channel or a self-directed channel and say, let's make an introduction to an FA and begin that potential migration. If you're on the same platform, it's a much easier and much more seamless transition. So that's a positive use of that. That's an example of how being on the same platform is helpful. The same goes for workplace, right? Everything flows into the same places. Again, that should be helpful as we move forward.

因此，請來自 E*TRADE 管道或自主管道的人員說，讓我們介紹一下 FA 並開始潛在的遷移。如果您使用同一平台，那麼過渡會更容易、更無縫。所以這是一個積極的用途。這是一個例子，說明在同一平台上是多麼有幫助。職場也是如此，對吧？一切都流向同一個地方。同樣，這對我們前進應該會有幫助。

It's also very helpful from a bank rails perspective. So as we think about banking products, as you can use, remember, E*TRADE had bank rails on their platform. Again, a lot of that can be used as we are now looking to potentially grow portions of the bank or grow lending or grow deposits. Those are all things that now that the platforms are put together on a consolidated basis. So I would look at it more from a revenue synergy perspective than necessarily a cost synergy perspective.

從銀行鐵路的角度來看，它也非常有幫助。因此，當我們考慮銀行產品時，請記住，E*TRADE 在其平台上有銀行導軌。同樣，其中許多都可以利用，因為我們現在正在尋求潛在地增加銀行的部分或增加貸款或增加存款。這些都是現在平台整合在一起後要做的事。因此，我會更多地從收入協同的角度來看待它，而不是成本協同的角度。

Okay. Terrific. A quick follow-up here just on net interest income trajectory in GWM so that we can make some assumptions around the trajectory of deposits. But how should we be thinking about the asset yield trajectory from here if we use the forward curve? I guess what are some of the puts and takes to be thinking about there?

好的。了不起。這裡快速跟進長城汽車的淨利息收入軌跡，以便我們可以圍繞存款軌跡做出一些假設。但是，如果我們使用遠期曲線，我們應該如何考慮從這裡開始的資產報酬率軌跡？我想有哪些需要考慮的地方？

Yes. Again, so when I look -- I would look at the movement sweeps -- if you're trying to draw a relationship between sweeps and NII really over the last 2 quarters, the asset yields are going to be a function of what the market yields are. Last quarter, for example, I mentioned that we had -- the NII was supported by higher asset yields. You'll remember that when we walked out of the first quarter, we were in a position where there was still a regional banking crisis. Some of the yields were higher as you think about funding yields simply because of what was going on in the environment.

是的。再說一次，所以當我看時——我會看變動掃描——如果你試圖在過去兩個季度的掃描和NII之間建立真正的關係，那麼資產收益率將是市場的函數。收益率是。例如，上個季度，我提到我們的國家資訊基礎設施得到了較高資產收益率的支撐。你會記得，當我們走出第一季時，我們仍處於地區銀行危機的境地。當你考慮融資收益率時，一些收益率會更高，這只是因為環境中發生的事情。

As those yields normalized, that came down, you lost some of that asset yield. And you began to see what we -- a different kind -- the deposits themselves had a bigger or more prominent reaction when you look at a sequential change in NII. So what I would try and do is you should take both quarters, for example, into consideration when you're thinking about the relationship between sweeps and NII. And of course, asset yields will be determined by market factors more broadly.

隨著這些收益率正常化，收益率下降，你損失了一些資產收益率。當你觀察NII的連續變化時，你開始看到我們——另一種——存款本身有更大或更顯著的反應。因此，我會嘗試做的是，例如，當您考慮掃描和 NII 之間的關係時，應該考慮兩個季度。當然，資產收益率將更廣泛地由市場因素決定。

We'll go next to Brennan Hawken with UBS.

接下來我們將與瑞銀一起前往布倫南·霍肯 (Brennan Hawken)。

I would like to start similar to that last question. So there's clearly uncertainty, but also, it seems equally clear that NII is no longer a tailwind for wealth. So when you're thinking about the 30% pretax margin target that you've provided for that business, how do you think -- what are your plans given that tailwind may be turning into a headwind or at least moderating? And how are you calibrating any planned investment and balance that out with the potential for growth on the back of that?

我想以類似於最後一個問題的方式開始。因此，顯然存在不確定性，但同樣明顯的是，NII 不再是財富的動力。因此，當您考慮為該業務提供的 30% 稅前利潤率目標時，您如何看待——考慮到順風可能會變成逆風或至少放緩，您的計劃是什麼？您如何調整任何計劃的投資並平衡其與由此帶來的成長潛力？

Thanks for the question, Brennan. As you would expect, it's a balance, right? We've made changes to our expense base over the course of this year. But we want to make sure that we're investing for long-term growth by being able to offer both technology platform solutions, et cetera, so that our advisers -- the most important thing about the investment is to create opportunities where the advisers have more time. More time that the advisers have, the more they're able to prospect new business and bring new assets to the top of the funnel. So that's how we're prioritizing the investments in order to get the operating leverage as the market begins to turn.

謝謝你的提問，布倫南。正如您所期望的，這是一種平衡，對嗎？今年我們對費用基礎進行了調整。但我們希望確保我們的投資是為了長期成長，能夠提供技術平台解決方案等，以便我們的顧問——投資最重要的是創造顧問擁有的機會更多時間。顧問擁有的時間越多，他們就越能夠開拓新業務並將新資產帶到漏斗的頂部。這就是我們如何確定投資的優先順序，以便在市場開始轉變時獲得營運槓桿。

Okay. So do you -- or do you have enough -- is that lever large enough? Are you going to be able to -- or willing to dial back investments in order to support moving towards that 30% pretax margin even without NII tailwinds?

好的。那麼你——或者你有足夠的——這個槓桿夠大嗎？即使沒有 NII 的推動，您是否能夠——或者願意減少投資，以支持實現 30% 的稅前利潤率？

We would see ourselves in a -- we're not -- we have put out those targets, and we have -- it's not that there is a shot clock in terms of the timing of those targets, Brennan. The goal is to create a business model that has the opportunity to do that on a more sustained basis. And the way that one is to do that from an asset-led strategy is to grow the asset management revenue streams and the transactional streams. And that's what you're seeing over the course of this quarter alone.

我們會看到自己處於一個——我們沒有——我們已經制定了這些目標，而且我們已經——這並不是說這些目標的時間安排有一個限制，布倫南。我們的目標是創造一個有機會在更持續的基礎上做到這一點的商業模式。透過資產主導策略實現這一目標的方法是增加資產管理收入流和交易流。這就是您在本季所看到的情況。

You're able to grow assets. You're able to deploy those assets into different transactional products, which helps transaction align. And eventually, it also moves into the advice-based relationship products, which has a higher annuity stream as well. And so that's the strategy, and you're seeing it play out as we move forward.

您能夠增加資產。您可以將這些資產部署到不同的交易產品中，這有助於交易協調。最終，它也進入了基於建議的關係產品，該產品也具有更高的年金流。這就是我們的策略，隨著我們的前進，你會看到它的實施。

Yes. I'd just point out, Brennan. I mean on $6.5 billion of revenue, the deficit against the 30% long-term target is currently about $120 million, $130 million. So this is not -- we're talking less than 2%. We're already at 28% ex the integration costs. They could take 2% of the cost out of that business tomorrow and hit that number. So this is not -- back in the day when we were talking about 20% margin and we were at 8%, that was when certain people were skeptical about that. We're in a whole different league now. 28% can go to 30%. We can make that happen. What we want to make sure is we make happen the growth over the next several years. So this is not a heavy lift. I'm not worried about that at all.

是的。我只想指出，布倫南。我的意思是，就 65 億美元的收入而言，與 30% 的長期目標相比，目前的赤字約為 1.2 億美元、1.3 億美元。所以這不是——我們所說的不到 2%。扣除整合成本後，我們已經達到了 28%。他們明天可以從該業務中扣除 2% 的成本，並達到這個數字。所以這不是——在我們談論 20% 利潤率的時候，我們當時的利潤率是 8%，當時有些人對此表示懷疑。我們現在處於一個完全不同的聯盟。 28%可以到30%。我們可以做到這一點。我們想要確保的是，我們能夠在未來幾年內實現成長。所以這不是一個繁重的任務。我一點也不擔心這個。

Great. If you could -- Sharon, maybe just one more clarification. Could you talk about the asset side? And looking at market yields, what's the duration that we should be thinking about if we're trying to calibrate? Because the disclosure on the asset side for the wealth is not as robust. We have to kind of use a couple of creative metrics within the filings.

偉大的。如果可以的話——莎倫，也許再澄清一點。能談談資產方面嗎？看看市場收益率，如果我們試圖校準，我們應該考慮的持續時間是多長？因為財富的資產端揭露就沒那麼穩健。我們必須在文件中使用一些創造性的指標。

In general, when you're talking about the AFS portfolio -- the duration of the AFS portfolio is under 2. But what you have to think about is just the deposits themselves and what's going on with right now. When we look at it, we're slightly still asset-sensitive. But of course, if rates rise, those -- the deposit duration also shortens. So I just think you have to think about -- you're taking all things into consideration as you move forward given the cycle.

一般來說，當您談論 AFS 投資組合時，AFS 投資組合的久期低於 2。但您必須考慮的只是存款本身以及目前發生的情況。當我們審視它時，我們仍然對資產有些敏感。但當然，如果利率上升，存款期限也會縮短。所以我認為你必須考慮——在給定週期的情況下，你在前進時要考慮所有的事情。

We're going to try and get in the last 3 questions quickly here, so we might run 5 minutes over.

我們將嘗試在這裡快速回答最後 3 個問題，因此我們可能會超過 5 分鐘。

We'll go next to Jim Mitchell with Seaport Global.

接下來我們將與 Seaport Global 的吉姆·米切爾 (Jim Mitchell) 進行交流。

Maybe just pivoting to the trading business. Fixed trading, up sequentially, a bit unusual in a seasonally slow third quarter. So maybe just talk a little bit about the drivers how sustainable you think they are, at least in the near term and maybe overall thoughts on industry wallet into next year.

也許只是轉向貿易業務。固定交易量連續上升，這在季節性放緩的第三季有點不尋常。因此，也許只是談談你認為它們的可持續性的驅動因素，至少在短期內，也許還有對明年行業錢包的整體想法。

Yes. It's a great question. When you look at what's going on in terms of the industry wallet, we talked a lot about 2019 and 2020 being bookends. Obviously, you are above the 2019 wallet more broadly. And you see this playing out because things like fixed income, you do have more Central Bank action. And you do have more broadly associated vol when you think about pre-COVID levels. So all that is fundamentally positive.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。當你看看行業錢包發生的事情時，我們談論了很多關於 2019 年和 2020 年的書擋。顯然，你的錢包更廣泛地高於 2019 年。你會看到這種情況的發生，因為像固定收益這樣的事情，央行確實有更多的行動。當你考慮新冠疫情之前的水平時，你確實有更廣泛的相關波動率。所以這一切從根本上來說都是正面的。

In terms of specifically the trading businesses, you had movements like I said, in commodities, oil. That ability to capture vol, it's really around being there for our clients but having greater velocity of sheet. And the more that we're able to do that as we move forward, we restructured this business tremendously over the course of the last 8, 9 years, and it's being there to be able to serve our clients and using our resources to some degree more effectively and efficiently.

就具體的貿易業務而言，正如我所說，大宗商品、石油方面出現了波動。這種捕捉體積的能力，實際上是為我們的客戶提供服務，但具有更高的片材速度。隨著我們的前進，我們越能做到這一點，我們在過去的八、九年裡對這項業務進行了巨大的重組，它的存在是為了能夠為我們的客戶提供服務並在某種程度上利用我們的資源更加有效和有效率。

We'll go next to Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

接下來我們將與富國銀行一起去麥克梅奧。

One kind of positive question, one negative question, maybe, James. When you think of the permanent improvement from 2019 levels prepandemic, how much higher do you think global wallet share should be for both Investment Banking and trading? Like as you look out over 3 to 5 years, was 2019 the normal? Or should it be above that? Because we're drifting back -- the global wallet share is drifting back toward 2019 and -- although the big U.S. banks are staying above that.

也許一種積極的問題，一種消極的問題，詹姆斯。當您考慮到 2019 年大流行前水準的永久性改善時，您認為投資銀行和交易的全球錢包份額應該高出多少？回顧過去 3 到 5 年，2019 年是正常情況嗎？或應該高於這個？因為我們正在回落——全球錢包份額正在回落至 2019 年——儘管美國大型銀行仍保持在這一水平之上。

And then the negative question is just NII is down 9% quarter-over-quarter in wealth. And kind of what are you guiding for that [to] be down? And when do you think that inflects?

負面問題是 NII 財富環比下降 9%。您對此有何指導？你認為這會在什麼時候發生？

Sure. I think the wallet -- global wallet would trend higher than '19. I think you're at a -- right now, we're obviously at an extreme low on the banking side. And trading is kind of muted. I mean Fixed Income, yes, we had a sequential nice run, equities at 3.5%. These are nowhere near top levels. I don't see any of the global competitors challenging the sort of the top of the U.S. 3 -- the top 3 or 4 firms. So -- and I think what's going on, as I said earlier, with the Middle East and India, Japan, parts of Lat Am, you're going to see non-U.S. growth over the next several years. So yes, I feel actually really pretty good about the outlook.

當然。我認為錢包——全球錢包的趨勢將比 19 年更高。我認為現在，我們的銀行業顯然處於極低的水平。而且交易有些平靜。我指的是固定收益，是的，我們連續表現良好，股票收益率為 3.5%。這些距離頂級水平還差得很遠。我認為沒有任何全球競爭對手能夠挑戰美國前三名的公司——前三或四名公司。因此，我認為，正如我之前所說，中東、印度、日本、拉丁美洲部分地區正在發生的事情，未來幾年你將會看到非美國地區的成長。所以，是的，我對前景確實感覺非常好。

And I'll let -- Sharon, I think we've touched on a lot of the NII stuff, and obviously, you can't model this stuff. You don't know exactly how people behave because it's a function of how they feel about where rates are and other opportunities at any point in time. But Sharon?

我會讓——莎倫，我想我們已經觸及了很多 NII 的東西，顯然，你不能對這些東西進行建模。您無法確切地了解人們的行為方式，因為這取決於他們在任何時間點對利率和其他機會的感受。但是莎倫呢？

Yes. We're not giving 2024 guidance right here. What we did say is that the next quarter, we have said we'll be lower. And that's a function, mathematically at the exit rates of deposits where we ended the quarter. But what is encouraging is that as we ended September and then we looked into October, client behavior is in line with our modeled expectations.

是的。我們不會在這裡給出 2024 年的指導。我們確實說過，下個季度我們會降低。從數學上講，這是我們本季末的存款退出率的函數。但令人鼓舞的是，當我們結束 9 月並展望 10 月時，客戶行為符合我們的建模預期。

We'll go next to Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

接下來我們將與 RBC 一起去傑拉德卡西迪 (Gerard Cassidy)。

I'll just ask a single question in view of the time. Can you guys give us a view of the outlook for your mergers and acquisitions, your appetite? Obviously, James, over your tenure, you guys have done a number of successful acquisitions. And as you look out over the next 3 to 5 years, I know, James, you won't be here. But what -- what's the appetite? Is it still something opportunistic if something comes up, it seems like you have all your products lined up by channel, but can you get economies of scale by buying some competitors in different channels?

鑑於時間有限，我只問一個問題。你們能否為我們介紹一下你們的併購前景以及你們的胃口？顯然，詹姆斯，在你的任期內，你們已經完成了許多成功的收購。當你展望未來 3 到 5 年時，我知道，詹姆斯，你不會在這裡。但是什麼——胃口如何？如果發生什麼情況，是不是還是投機取巧的事情，好像你所有的產品都是按渠道排列的，但是你能通過購買不同渠道的一些競爭對手來獲得規模經濟嗎？

Definitely, the latter. It's not just opportunistic. It's strategic in that we have a game plan. We just completed an offsite about a month ago with the whole operating committee. And each of the leaders that you know all about, Ted, Andy and Dan, were heavily engaged in that from the business side. I think there are a lot of things -- there are a lot of interesting properties in this world. And we've got a machine. Jim Hennessy, I'll give a call out to him. He led the integration of E*TRADE. He actually led the integration going all the way back to Smith Barney. Hundreds of people that work on that.

肯定是後者。這不僅僅是機會主義的。這是戰略性的，因為我們有一個遊戲計劃。大約一個月前，我們剛與整個營運委員會完成了一次異地會議。你所知道的每一位領導者，泰德、安迪和丹，都從業務方面積極參與其中。我認為這個世界上有很多東西——有很多有趣的特性。我們有一台機器。吉姆‧軒尼詩，我會打電話給他。他領導了 E*TRADE 的整合。他實際上領導了整合，一直追溯到美邦。數百人致力於此。

So we've got an integration machine. I mean you start with -- do you have a vision of what the company should look like? And then do you have a set of strategic options, which, if available, you would hit the bid? Then the opportunistic is when they become available like in (inaudible) you hit the bid. But the real issue is, can you integrate them safely and securely? And then finally, having done that, will that drive growth above the current run rate? So that's how we think about acquisitions. The team is very weighted behind it.

所以我們有一台整合機器。我的意思是你首先——你對公司應該是什麼樣子有一個願景嗎？然後，您是否有一套戰略選擇，如果有的話，您會中標？那麼機會主義就是當它們變得可用時，就像（聽不清楚）你出價一樣。但真正的問題是，你能安全可靠地整合它們嗎？最後，完成此操作後，這是否會推動成長高於目前的運行速度？這就是我們對收購的看法。背後的團隊非常有分量。

I don't know, Sharon, if you want to add anything to that. But yes, this firm will do sensible, not reckless, not life-changing but sensible deals as we've done many of them, Mesa West, Solium, and there'll be -- there's a lot of opportunity out there, Gerard.

莎倫，我不知道你是否還想補充什麼。但是，是的，這家公司會做明智的，不是魯莽的，不是改變生活的，而是明智的交易，就像我們已經做過的很多交易一樣，Mesa West、Solium，而且會有很多機會，杰拉德。

I think that's a wrap.

我認為這是一個包裝。

There are no further questions at this time. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for everyone for participating. You may now disconnect.

目前沒有其他問題。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。