摩根士丹利 (MS) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. On behalf of Morgan Stanley, I will begin the call with the following disclaimer. This call is being recorded. During today's presentation, we will refer to our earnings release and financial supplements, copies of which are available at morganstanley.com. Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially.

早安.我將代表摩根士丹利在電話會議開始時發表以下免責聲明。此通話正在錄音。在今天的演示中，我們將參考我們的收益發布和財務補充資料，其副本可在 morganstanley.com 上取得。今天的演示可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。

Please refer to our notices regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures that appear in the earnings release and strategic updates. Within the strategic update, certain reported information has been adjusted as noted. These adjustments were made to provide a transparent and comparative view of our operating performance. The reconciliations of these non-GAAP adjusted operating performance metrics are included in the notes to the presentation or the earnings release.

請參閱我們關於收益發布和策略更新中出現的前瞻性陳述和非公認會計原則措施的通知。在策略更新中，某些報告資訊已按所述進行調整。進行這些調整是為了提供我們經營績效的透明和可比較的視圖。這些非公認會計原則調整後的經營績效指標的調節包含在簡報或收益發布的註釋中。

This presentation may not be duplicated or reproduced without our consent. I will now turn the call over to Chief Executive Officer, Ted Pick.

未經我們同意，不得複製或複製本簡報。我現在將把電話轉給執行長泰德·皮克。

Good morning and thank you for joining us. It is a privilege to be with you. Today, I will deliver the annual deck that was a hallmark of James Gorman's 14-year tenure, both to a firm Morgan Stanley strategy and to provide a level of transparency on our progress that you have come to respect. Let's turn to the slides, turning first to Slide 3. Over the last 15 years, we have transformed the firm's business mix, scale, profitability and returns. If you compare various historical periods, you can see our business evolution. Each period faced its own challenges. In 2009 to '14, Morgan Stanley was a classic self-help story. Transformation began with the acquisition and integration of Smith Barney.

早安，感謝您加入我們。與您在一起是我的榮幸。今天，我將發表年度報告，這是詹姆斯·戈爾曼 14 年任期的標誌，既體現了摩根士丹利堅定的戰略，也體現了我們所取得的進展的透明度，值得你們尊重。讓我們看幻燈片，首先看幻燈片 3。在過去 15 年裡，我們改變了公司的業務組合、規模、獲利能力和回報。如果你比較各個歷史時期，你就能看到我們業務的演變。每個時期都面臨自己的挑戰。從2009年到14年，摩根士丹利是一個經典的自助故事。轉型始於對美邦的收購與整合。

The investment bank was reset and the firm survived the near triple credit downgrade and the euro crisis. In 2015 to '19, we weathered the years of financial recession, resizing our fixed income business and pressing ahead to the top slot in institutional equities. During this period, we also acquired Solium which was a step towards leadership in the corporate stock plan space. And in 2020 to '22, the COVID years, we achieved incremental scale in both wealth and investment management with the acquisitions of E*TRADE and Eaton Vance, giving us a leading self-directed platform and pushing forward in investment solutions.

投資銀行被重置，公司度過了近三倍的信用評級下調和歐元危機。 2015 年至 19 年，我們經歷了多年的金融衰退，調整了固定收益業務規模，並力爭在機構股票領域名列前茅。在此期間，我們也收購了 Solium，這是邁向企業股票計畫領域領導地位的一步。在 2020 年至 22 年新冠疫情期間，我們透過收購 E*TRADE 和 Eaton Vance，實現了財富和投資管理規模的增量，為我們提供了領先的自主平台並推動投資解決方案的發展。

During this period, each of the 2 major business lines, Wealth and Investment Management and Institutional Securities generated operating leverage and high returns. Transformed Morgan Stanley today has tripled client assets in its durable businesses with significant opportunities for further growth. Notwithstanding 2023's geopolitical, macroeconomic and industry challenges, the firm's business model generated consistent results. In 2023, firm revenues were $54 billion with $12 billion of PBT, double the averages of 2009 to '14. Our return on tangible common equity was a solid 13%, inclusive of notable items that reduced returns by over 100 basis points. Last year's return profile was triple the post-crisis years. Combined earnings from Wealth and Investment Management generated 60% of the firm's top line and PBT and our Category 1 asset gathering strategy sets the stage for continued durable growth.

在此期間，財富與投資管理和機構證券兩大業務線均產生了營運槓桿和高回報。如今，轉型後的摩根士丹利在其耐用業務中的客戶資產增加了兩倍，並具有進一步成長的重大機會。儘管 2023 年面臨地緣政治、宏觀經濟和產業挑戰，但該公司的業務模式仍產生了一致的結果。 2023 年，公司營收為 540 億美元，其中 PBT 為 120 億美元，是 2009 年至 14 年平均值的兩倍。我們的有形普通股本回報率為 13%，其中包括導致回報率下降超過 100 個基點的重要項目。去年的回報率是危機後年份的三倍。財富和投資管理的合併收益占公司營收的 60%，PBT 和我們的 1 類資產聚集策略為持續持久成長奠定了基礎。

The Institutional Securities business also grew over the transformation years with an eye to investing in its leading franchises. The objective has been to create an integrated investment bank of investment banking, equities and fixed income to serve leading institutions around the world. Taken together, the Morgan Stanley business portfolio of today has lot higher and more stable profitability. The actions we've taken over the last 15 years, organic and inorganic were all within our core strategic footprint. At its center is acting as a trusted adviser to clients, helping them raise, allocate and manage capital. It is what we do. We are a global leader and we are really good at it. This will not change.

機構證券業務在轉型時期也不斷成長，著眼於投資其領先的特許經營業務。其目標是創建一家集投資銀行、股票和固定收益於一體的綜合投資銀行，為世界各地的領先機構提供服務。總的來說，摩根士丹利今天的業務組合具有更高、更穩定的獲利能力。過去 15 年我們採取的有機和無機行動都在我們的核心策略足跡之內。其核心是充當客戶值得信賴的顧問，幫助他們籌集、分配和管理資本。這就是我們所做的。我們是全球領導者，而且我們非常擅長。這不會改變。

Turning to Slide 4. Since 2010, revenues in Wealth and Investment Management have more than doubled and today, we're #1 in the world among our peers. During the same period, our client assets have more than tripled to $6.6 trillion. We see continued opportunities to drive growth and are steadfast in our goal of reaching $10 trillion in total client assets. In Wealth Management, we have established ourselves as a leading asset gatherer by expanding our business model across 3 channels: advisor-led, self-directed and workplace. The business generated $1 trillion of net new assets over the past 3 years and we are relentlessly focused on sustainable growth. We expect M&A growth to continue to vary quarter-by-quarter given seasonality and even year-to-year given market tone and the cadence of migrating workplace assets and attracting assets all the way.

轉向幻燈片 4。自 2010 年以來，財富和投資管理領域的收入增長了一倍多，如今，我們在同行中排名第一。同期，我們的客戶資產增加了兩倍多，達到 6.6 兆美元。我們看到了持續成長的機會，並堅定地實現客戶總資產達到 10 兆美元的目標。在財富管理領域，我們透過三個管道擴展我們的業務模式：顧問主導、自我指導和工作場所，從而確立了自己作為領先資產收集者的地位。這項業務在過去 3 年創造了 1 兆美元的淨新資產，我們不懈地致力於永續成長。考慮到季節性，甚至考慮到市場基調以及遷移工作場所資產和吸引資產的節奏，我們預計併購成長將繼續逐季度變化。

We are nevertheless confident in our ability to continue to grow and deepen our 18 million relationships with the breadth of our wealth management offering. Over time, our ability to attract, deepen and retain client relationships with our differentiated platform allows us to drive revenue growth and operating leverage, enabling 30% margins. Given some of the recent macro headwinds and our continued investments for growth, it's reasonable to expect reported margins to consolidate in the mid-20s range over the near term.

儘管如此，我們對透過豐富的財富管理產品繼續發展和深化與 1800 萬客戶的關係的能力充滿信心。隨著時間的推移，我們透過差異化平台吸引、加深和保留客戶關係的能力使我們能夠推動收入成長和營運槓桿，實現 30% 的利潤率。考慮到最近的一些宏觀阻力以及我們持續的成長投資，有理由預期報告的利潤率在短期內將鞏固在 20 多歲的範圍內。

The underlying business has achieved 30% margins before and we intend to deliver that return profile again in the long term against a higher base of revenue. Our wealth platform is complemented by investment management, where we've added a number of new capabilities to our strong public market alpha engines. This business is well aligned to key areas where we see secular growth, including customization such as Parametric, private markets and value-add credit. At a holistic level, the wealth and investment management business has achieved the kind of scale, which enables us to invest in what matters most to clients and to take further market share through the cycles.

基礎業務之前已實現 30% 的利潤率，從長遠來看，我們打算在更高的收入基礎上再次實現這一回報。我們的財富平台得到了投資管理的補充，我們為強大的公開市場阿爾法引擎添加了許多新功能。該業務與我們看到長期成長的關鍵領域非常契合，包括參數化、私人市場和增值信貸等客製化。從整體來看，財富和投資管理業務已經達到了一定的規模，這使我們能夠投資於對客戶最重要的事情，並在整個週期中獲得更多的市場份額。

Turning to Slide 5. Morgan Stanley's Institutional Securities Group, our integrated investment bank is a preeminent global franchise. Our capability set, extensive client footprint and premier brand puts us in a position to be the trusted adviser to every important corporation, public or private, asset manager and asset owner. Our teams across geographies, businesses and client segments position us at the center of global capital allocation [formation]. Over the last decade, we've advised on nearly $9 trillion in M&A transactions, raised nearly $13 trillion of capital for clients. And as indication of our market presence, in a single trading session last month, our equities business transacted roughly $250 billion of notional value.

轉向投影片 5。摩根士丹利的機構證券集團是我們的綜合投資銀行，是一家卓越的全球特許經營機構。我們的能力、廣泛的客戶覆蓋範圍和一流的品牌使我們能夠成為每個重要公司（無論是上市公司還是私人公司）、資產管理者和資產所有者值得信賴的顧問。我們的團隊跨越地理、業務和客戶群，使我們處於全球資本配置[形成]的中心。在過去十年中，我們為近 9 兆美元的併購交易提供了諮詢服務，為客戶籌集了近 13 兆美元的資金。作為我們市場影響力的體現，在上個月的一個交易日中，我們的股票業務名目交易額約為 2500 億美元。

Our leadership position outside the U.S. acting as a true global investment bank is critical for the Morgan Stanley franchise. After more than 5 years managing our integrated investment bank, I'd add that it is clear from client visits around the world that the barriers to entry to becoming a global investment bank are real. Today, there are fewer competitors and we are one of those very few who can provide the full breadth of capabilities. We expect the next economic and financial cycle to be led by corporate finance activity, which will drive investment banking growth and as such, are particularly focused on expanding our 15% wallet share in that advice-driven business.

作為真正的全球投資銀行，我們在美國以外的領導地位對於摩根士丹利的特許經營至關重要。在管理我們的綜合投資銀行超過 5 年之後，我想補充一點，從世界各地的客戶訪問中可以清楚地看出，成為全球投資銀行的進入障礙是真實存在的。如今，競爭對手越來越少，我們是極少數能夠提供全面功能的公司之一。我們預計下一個經濟和金融週期將由企業融資活動主導，這將推動投資銀行業務的成長，因此，我們特別注重擴大我們在建議驅動型業務中 15% 的錢包份額。

Turning to Slide 6. When you combine our wealth and investment management platform with our leading institutional franchise, you see the power of what we will call the integrated firm. Our capacity to source new client opportunities, efficiently facilitate the flow of capital and deliver Morgan Stanley firm-wide solutions has never been stronger. Looking at the right side of the slide, more specifically, our premier corporate franchise spans every business segment, with clients at the center of everything we do.

轉向幻燈片 6。當您將我們的財富和投資管理平台與我們領先的機構特許經營權結合起來時，您會看到我們所謂的綜合公司的力量。我們尋找新客戶機會、有效促進資本流動和提供摩根士丹利全公司解決方案的能力從未如此強大。更具體地說，看看幻燈片的右側，我們首要的企業特許經營涵蓋每個業務部門，客戶是我們所做一切的中心。

We cover their broad range of needs, from advising the C-suite on strategy, helping them raise capital and hedge risks, on through to advising the broader employee base through our workplace offering. Second, we have a unique capability to serve individuals who range from self-directed, up through to the ultra-high net worth set and small institutions who sit between the traditional segments. We can deliver best-in-class institutional capabilities paired with sophisticated wealth management solutions in an integrated service model. Third, we continue to invest in our ability to deliver investment and client solutions as we are at the center of financial innovation and growth. Our global integrated investment bank is core to our ability to source and structure customized opportunities for corporations and financial sponsors.

我們滿足他們廣泛的需求，從為最高管理層提供策略建議、幫助他們籌集資金和對沖風險，一直到透過我們的工作場所產品為更廣泛的員工群體提供建議。其次，我們擁有獨特的能力，可以為從自我導向的個人到超高淨值人士以及介於傳統細分市場之間的小型機構提供服務。我們可以在綜合服務模式中提供一流的機構能力與先進的財富管理解決方案。第三，我們繼續投資於提供投資和客戶解決方案的能力，因為我們處於金融創新和成長的中心。我們的全球綜合投資銀行是我們為企業和金融贊助商尋找和建立客製化機會的能力的核心。

Our structuring capabilities are augmented by scaled distribution channels, extending from the largest institutions through to the individual retail client set. With a central focus on our clients, we see significant opportunities in delivering the integrated firm. Turning to Slide 7. Ultimately, the firm's success relies on our human capital and maintaining a differentiated partnership culture. With James as Executive Chairman and together with Andy Saperstein and Dan Simkowitz as our Co-Presidents, our highest priority is delivering the integrated firm to our clients. Our shared Morgan Stanley experience, having all lived through the 15-year transformation gives us a lens into where we come from and where we are going.

規模化的分銷管道增強了我們的建置能力，從最大的機構延伸到個人零售客戶群。以客戶為中心，我們看到了打造一體化公司的巨大機會。轉向幻燈片 7。最終，公司的成功依賴於我們的人力資本和維持差異化的合作夥伴文化。詹姆斯擔任執行主席，安迪·薩珀斯坦和丹·西姆科維茨擔任聯合總裁，我們的首要任務是向客戶提供綜合性公司。我們共同經歷了摩根士丹利 15 年的轉型，這讓我們能夠清楚地了解自己從哪裡來，要去哪裡。

Intentional mobility of our leadership engineered by James over these many years is particularly important. Andy in his expanded role as Head of both Wealth and Investment Management is well situated to leverage his deep knowledge of retail distribution and products to drive client opportunities across the business. Dan, having successfully revitalized investment management for nearly 1 decade is returning to lead institutional securities where he spent 25 years, will play a critical role in connecting the firm around sourcing opportunities, structuring, financing and distributing capital for our clients.

詹姆斯多年來精心設計的領導力流動性尤其重要。安迪（Andy）作為財富和投資管理主管的職責不斷擴大，能夠充分利用他對零售分銷和產品的深入了解來推動整個企業的客戶機會。 Dan 近 10 年來成功振興了投資管理，如今他將重返領導機構證券工作 25 年，他將在公司為客戶尋找機會、構建、融資和分配資本方面發揮關鍵作用。

Both these gentlemen have burnished the brand and successfully integrated acquisitions. To have James, Dan and Andy as partners to open 2024, speaks to the enduring strength of our culture. Our broader leadership team has worked together since the financial crisis, through the strategic transformation and today are unified in advancing toward our goals. The operating and management committees of the firm each have an average tenure of more than 20 years. Long tenure is one element that maintains the strength of a learning culture of serving clients in a first-class way.

這兩位先生都為品牌增光添彩，並成功整合收購。讓 James、Dan 和 Andy 作為合作夥伴開啟 2024 年，體現了我們文化的持久力量。自金融危機以來，我們更廣泛的領導團隊一直通力合作，經歷了策略轉型，如今團結一致，朝著我們的目標前進。公司經營管理委員會平均任期超過20年。長期任職是維持以一流方式服務客戶的學習文化力量的要素。

In addition to backing the Morgan Stanley experience set of our long-standing leaders, we are enhanced by the injection of some key lateral hires and joiners via our acquisitions. Our businesses are supported by world-class technology and infrastructure organization and by 2,320 talented Managing Directors, 155 of whom we promoted to the partnership last week. Our 80,000 people are what makes Morgan Stanley's culture and drives us to be excellent on behalf of our clients, to be prudent fiduciaries of capital and to maintain a keen awareness of the road we have traveled to achieve the firm we have today.

除了支持摩根士丹利長期領導者的經驗之外，我們還透過收購注入了一些關鍵的橫向員工和加入者，從而增強了我們的能力。我們的業務得到世界一流的技術和基礎設施組織以及 2,320 名才華橫溢的董事總經理的支持，其中 155 名董事總經理上週被我們提升為合作夥伴。我們的 80,000 名員工造就了摩根士丹利的文化，並推動我們為客戶提供卓越的服務，成為審慎的資本受託人，並對我們為實現今天的公司所走過的道路保持敏銳的認識。

Turning to Slide 8. In addition to, one, the performance of the business; two, driving integrated firm; and three, maintaining our culture, we are -- four, highly focused on the state of our financial capital. Given our deliberate growth in durable earnings over the last several years, our capital position is strong, owing to the finalization of Basel III Endgame. Our regulatory requirements as measured within our stress capital buffer have steadily come down since 2020, reflecting the improved resilience of our businesses.

轉向投影片 8。此外，一是業務績效；二、帶動一體化堅定；第三，維護我們的文化，第四，高度關注我們的金融資本狀況。鑑於我們在過去幾年中持續獲利的刻意增長，由於《巴塞爾協議 III 終局之戰》的最終確定，我們的資本狀況十分強勁。自 2020 年以來，我們在壓力資本緩衝範圍內衡量的監管要求穩步下降，反映出我們業務彈性的提高。

With respect to Basel III Endgame, we continue to believe after fulsome industry comment and further evaluation of economic and competitive impacts that the final rule will result in a well more constructive outcome than originally proposed, particularly as it pertains to matters that are driving our estimated RWA inflation. Looking ahead, we remain committed to the dividend as it is at the core of our business model's durability. While we will toggle among opportunities to support our clients, grow our businesses and repurchase our stock, the core strength and strategic decisions of the last 15 years are reflected in our quarterly dividend, which we have grown from $0.05 to $0.85 per share.

關於巴塞爾協議III 的終局之戰，我們仍然相信，在充分的行業評論以及對經濟和競爭影響的進一步評估之後，最終規則將產生比最初提議更有建設性的結果，特別是因為它涉及推動我們估計的事項RWA 通貨膨脹。展望未來，我們仍然致力於股息，因為它是我們業務模式持久性的核心。雖然我們會在支持客戶、發展業務和回購股票的機會之間切換，但過去 15 年的核心優勢和策略決策反映在我們的季度股息中，股息從每股 0.05 美元增加到 0.85 美元。

The continued sustainability of that dividend is paramount. With the firm coming together, we will drive toward our performance goals. Slide 9 reiterates our confidence in them. Our strategy and long-term value proposition remain intact. The 4 firm-wide goals are in place, hitting $10 trillion in client assets, achieving a 30% wealth management pretax margin, a 70% firm-wide efficiency ratio and achieving 20% returns on tangible equity. Our management team is steeled to execute against our priorities to reach these goals.

該股息的持續可持續性至關重要。隨著公司的團結，我們將努力實現我們的績效目標。投影片 9 重申了我們對他們的信心。我們的策略和長期價值主張保持不變。全公司的4個目標已經到位，客戶資產達到10兆美元，財富管理稅前利潤率達30%，全公司效率達70%，有形股本報酬率達20%。我們的管理團隊有能力執行我們的優先事項以實現這些目標。

We enter 2024 with confidence and our base case for the coming year is constructive. There are 2 major downside risks. The first is geopolitical, that global conflicts intensify and conflagrate. The second is the state of the U.S. economy over the course of 2024. The base case is benign, namely that of a soft landing. But if the economy weakens dramatically in the quarters to come and the Fed has to move rapidly to avoid a hard landing, that would likely result in lower asset prices and activity levels. On the other hand, if inflation, in fact, has not been beaten back and continues to challenge consumers and the supply chain, that could result in a stickier Fed and the resulting higher for longer will have to be absorbed in the way of a higher-than-expected cost of capital and the dangers of a bifurcated economy.

我們充滿信心地進入 2024 年，我們對來年的基本預期是建設性的。有兩個主要的下行風險。首先是地緣政治，全球衝突加劇並爆發。第二個是 2024 年美國經濟的狀況。基本情況是良性的，即軟著陸。但如果未來幾季經濟大幅疲軟，聯準會必須迅速採取行動以避免硬著陸，可能會導致資產價格和活動水準下降。另一方面，如果通膨實際上沒有被擊退，並繼續對消費者和供應鏈構成挑戰，這可能會導緻聯準會的黏性更強，而由此產生的長期通膨將不得不以更高的利率來吸收。- 超出預期的資本成本和經濟分裂的危險。

These risks, the geopolitical and that of the U.S. economy presents some uncertainties as we start 2024. Nevertheless, as we have discussed this morning, the Morgan Stanley of today is meant to perform through the cycle. And based on the evidence we see, are building M&A and IPO pipelines, improving boardroom confidence and an increasingly positive tone from our retail and institutional clients, we remain constructive on the year ahead. We will execute on our clear and consistent strategy. We have a global business. A world-class wealth and investment manager alongside a leading investment bank.

在 2024 年伊始，這些風險、地緣政治風險和美國經濟風險帶來了一些不確定性。不過，正如我們今天早上討論的那樣，今天的摩根士丹利注定會在整個週期中表現出色。根據我們看到的證據，正在建立併購和首次公開募股管道、改善董事會信心以及我們的零售和機構客戶日益積極的基調，我們對未來一年保持建設性的看法。我們將執行我們明確且一致的策略。我們擁有全球業務。世界一流的財富和投資管理公司以及領先的投資銀行。

The growth opportunities are extraordinary, especially given how our businesses and regions intersect and support the business strategy. We will continue to lead with asset consolidation across wealth and investment management and remain committed to growing high-quality share in institutional securities to consistently deliver our integrated firm to clients around the world. In so doing, we will continue to execute towards our key objectives and to deliver for shareholders.

成長機會非同尋常，特別是考慮到我們的業務和地區如何交叉並支援業務策略。我們將繼續引領財富和投資管理領域的資產整合，並繼續致力於增加機構證券的高品質份額，以始終如一地為世界各地的客戶提供我們的綜合公司。在此過程中，我們將繼續執行我們的主要目標並為股東提供服務。

I will now turn the call over to Sharon, who will discuss our fourth quarter and annual results. And then together, we'll take your questions. Thank you.

我現在將把電話轉給莎倫，她將討論我們的第四季和年度業績。然後我們將一起回答您的問題。謝謝。

Thank you and good morning. The firm produced revenues of $54.1 billion in 2023 and ended the year with fourth quarter revenues of $12.9 billion. For the full year, ROTCE was 12.8% and EPS was $5.18. And for the fourth quarter, ROTCE was 8.4% and EPS was $0.85. The full year efficiency ratio was 77.2%. A number of factors impacted our annual and quarterly results. The full year results include nearly $900 million of notable items.

謝謝你，早安。該公司 2023 年的營收為 541 億美元，截至該年第四季的營收為 129 億美元。全年的 ROTCE 為 12.8%，每股收益為 5.18 美元。第四季度，ROTCE 為 8.4%，EPS 為 0.85 美元。全年效率為77.2%。許多因素影響了我們的年度和季度業績。全年業績包括近 9 億美元的重要項目。

Over half of these items were reflected in the fourth quarter, a $286 million FDIC special assessment charge and a legal settlement of $249 million, were both realized in the fourth quarter. In addition, the full year results include $353 million of severance expenses, primarily related to the May employee action. The combination of these 3 items negatively impacted full year EPS by $0.44, ROTCE by 105 basis points and the efficiency ratio by 164 basis points. Total integration-related expenses for the year were $293 million, nearly 70% of which was related to E*TRADE. With the E*TRADE integration now complete, we remain focused on continuing to manage our expense base, supporting our long-term efficiency goals, while still investing in growth. Now to the businesses.

其中超過一半的項目反映在第四季度，2.86 億美元的 FDIC 特別評估費用和 2.49 億美元的法律和解均在第四季度實現。此外，全年業績還包括 3.53 億美元的遣散費，主要與 5 月的員工行動有關。這 3 個項目結合，對全年 EPS 產生了 0.44 美元的負面影響，對 ROTCE 產生了 105 個基點的負面影響，對效率比率產生了 164 個基點的負面影響。本年度與整合相關的總費用為 2.93 億美元，其中近 70% 與 E*TRADE 有關。隨著 E*TRADE 整合現已完成，我們仍然專注於繼續管理我們的費用基礎，支持我們的長期效率目標，同時仍投資於成長。現在到企業。

Institutional Securities full year revenues were $23.1 billion and quarterly revenues were $4.9 billion. Full year results were impacted by the weak investment banking environment that began with the onset of the hiking cycle and geopolitical events in early 2022 and persisted through most of the past year. Fourth quarter revenues reflected stronger investment banking results and prudent risk management across fixed income and equities. Investment Banking revenues were $4.6 billion for the full year. Lower completed M&A transactions followed a dearth of announcements in the back half of 2022 and early 2023, which weighed on results.

機構證券全年營收為 231 億美元，季度營收為 49 億美元。全年業績受到疲軟的投資銀行環境的影響，這種環境始於 2022 年初升息週期和地緣政治事件的開始，並持續了過去一年的大部分時間。第四季度收入反映了投資銀行業務的強勁業績以及固定收益和股票領域審慎的風險管理。全年投資銀行業務收入為 46 億美元。由於 2022 年下半年和 2023 年初缺乏公告，導致完成的併購交易減少，這對業績造成了壓力。

However, optimism began to rise midyear, followed by a notable increase in Morgan Stanley's announced volumes starting in the third quarter and continuing into the fourth quarter. Fourth quarter revenues were $1.3 billion. Results were supported mostly by fixed income underwriting as the investment-grade market remained open for regular-way issuance and was supported by event-driven activity. Advisory revenues have begun to recover versus recent quarters and were roughly flat year-over-year. Equity underwriting revenues were also flat as activity remains muted.

然而，樂觀情緒在年中開始抬頭，摩根士丹利公佈的交易量從第三季開始並持續到第四季顯著增加。第四季營收為 13 億美元。績效主要受到固定收益承銷的支撐，因為投資等級市場仍對常規發行開放，並受到事件驅動活動的支撐。與最近幾季相比，諮詢收入已開始復甦，並且與去年同期大致持平。由於活動依然低迷，股票承銷收入也持平。

As we enter 2024, we are positioned to capitalize on the opportunity set. While downside risks are linked to the consumer with the rate path and geopolitics as 2 key determinants, we expect the U.S. will lead the recovery globally. Corporate confidence will ultimately drive the cycle forward and we are encouraged by signs that the CEO and boardroom optimism is growing, evidenced by the build of our advisory and IPO pipeline. Our integrated investment bank is well positioned to capitalize on the recovering backdrop, particularly where the institution works across the businesses, with CEOs, CFOs and treasurers on Corporate Solutions. Strength ed sentiment should support broad M&A and new capital market issuance and eventually feed through to the broader market activity.

進入 2024 年，我們已做好充分利用機會的準備。雖然下行風險與消費者有關，利率路徑和地緣政治是兩個關鍵決定因素，但我們預期美國將引領全球復甦。企業信心最終將推動這一周期向前發展，有跡象表明執行長和董事會的樂觀情緒正在增強，我們感到鼓舞，這從我們的諮詢和 IPO 管道的建設中得到了證明。我們的綜合投資銀行處於有利位置，可以利用復甦的背景，特別是在該機構跨業務開展業務、與首席執行官、首席財務官和財務主管共同致力於企業解決方案的情況下。強勁的情緒應會支持廣泛的併購和新資本市場的發行，最終影響更廣泛的市場活動。

Equity full year revenues were $10 billion, reflecting lower revenues across regions. Tempered client engagement was reflective of broad market uncertainty. Revenues were $2.2 billion in the fourth quarter. Prime brokerage revenues in the fourth quarter were solid. Results reflected narrower spreads and the geographic mix of client balances. Cash results declined versus last year's fourth quarter, reflecting lower volumes, particularly in Asia, ex Japan.

全年股票收入為 100 億美元，反映了各地區收入的下降。客戶參與度的下降反映了廣泛的市場不確定性。第四季營收為 22 億美元。第四季大宗經紀業務收入穩健。結果反映了利差縮小和客戶餘額的地理分佈。現金業績較去年第四季下降，反映出銷量下降，尤其是在亞洲（日本除外）。

Derivative results were up versus last year's fourth quarter as the business continued to grow the client base. Fixed income revenues were $7.7 billion for the full year, declining from 2022's strong results. The full year decline was driven by lower client activity in foreign exchange and commodities which were impacted by greater uncertainty around the rate outlook and less volatile energy markets. Quarterly revenues were $1.4 billion. Macro performance was down versus the prior fourth quarter. Results reflected fewer monetization opportunities, particularly in Asia, compared to heightened engagement in the region last year. Micro is down year-over-year, driven by lower revenues in credit corporates which was negatively impacted by movements in credit spreads on the back of geopolitical events.

由於該業務的客戶群持續成長，衍生性商品業績較去年第四季有所上升。全年固定收益收入為 77 億美元，較 2022 年的強勁業績下降。全年下降的原因是外匯和大宗商品的客戶活動減少，而這些活動又受到利率前景不確定性加大和能源市場波動較小的影響。季度營收為 14 億美元。宏觀表現較上一季下降。結果表明，與去年該地區的參與度提高相比，貨幣化機會減少，尤其是在亞洲。微觀較去年同期下降，原因是信貸公司收入下降，而信貸公司收入受到地緣政治事件導致的信貸利差變動的負面影響。

Results in commodities were up versus last year's fourth quarter, primarily reflecting improved performance in the Power and Gas business. Turning to Wealth Management. For the full year, Wealth Management's revenues were $26.3 billion and the pretax profit was $6.5 billion, which resulted in a PBT margin of 24.9%. Reported results reflect the complex macro backdrop as well as several idiosyncratic events. The unprecedented rise in the absolute level of interest rates were particularly consequential as the subsequent shifts in client behavior impacted the revenue mix and margin.

大宗商品業績較去年第四季上升，主要反映了電力和天然氣業務業績的改善。轉向財富管理。全年財富管理收入為263億美元，稅前利潤為65億美元，稅前利潤率為24.9%。報告的結果反映了複雜的宏觀背景以及一些特殊事件。由於客戶行為的後續變化影響了收入組合和利潤率，利率絕對水準前所未有的上升尤其重要。

In addition, there were several expense items that impacted the margin, including integration-related expenses, the FDIC special assessment, severance charges and the impact of DCP, which saw meaningful swings compared to last year. Taken together, these 4 items impacted the full year margin by over 250 basis points. Total client assets ended the year at a new high, reaching $5.1 trillion of assets. Full year fee-based flows were $109 billion. These flows and associated fees offset the market levels and changes in interest mix of client portfolios, supporting the year-over-year increase in asset management revenues.

此外，還有幾個費用項目影響了利潤率，包括整合相關費用、FDIC 特別評估、遣散費以及 DCP 的影響，與去年相比出現了大幅波動。總的來說，這 4 個項目對全年利潤率的影響超過 250 個基點。年底客戶總資產再創新高，達到 5.1 兆美元。全年收費流量為 1,090 億美元。這些流量和相關費用抵消了市場水平和客戶投資組合興趣結構的變化，支持資產管理收入的同比增長。

Fourth quarter revenues were $6.6 billion and the reported PBT margin was 21.5%. The aforementioned notable expenses negatively impacted the fourth quarter margin by over 400 basis points. Asset management revenues in the quarter were $3.6 billion, up approximately $200 million from the prior year's fourth quarter. Quarterly fee-based flows were strong at $42 billion, underscoring the value clients are seeing in our advice-based model. Client allocations to higher yielding cash alternatives remained elevated and clients continue to deploy monthly inflows into equity markets from sweep balances.

第四季營收為 66 億美元，報告的 PBT 利潤率為 21.5%。上述顯著費用對第四季利潤率產生了超過 400 個基點的負面影響。該季度資產管理收入為 36 億美元，比去年第四季增加約 2 億美元。季度收費流量強勁，達到 420 億美元，凸顯了客戶在我們基於建議的模式中看到的價值。客戶對收益率較高的現金替代品的配置仍然較高，客戶繼續將每月的資金從清掃餘額投入股市。

The eventual return of the new issuance calendar and improved retail sentiment should provide a tailwind as clients look to redeploy into broader asset classes. Net new assets of $282 billion for the year represented 7% annual growth rate of beginning period assets. Fourth quarter net new assets were $47 billion. For the full year, net new asset growth was driven by the advisor-led channel, across existing clients, new clients and net recruiting. Transactional revenues in the fourth quarter were $1.1 billion, excluding the impact of DCP, transactional revenues increased slightly year-over-year as clients invested in structured products and fixed income products.

新發行日曆的最終回歸和零售情緒的改善應該會為客戶尋求重新部署到更廣泛的資產類別提供助力。全年新增淨資產 2,820 億美元，相當於期初資產年增率 7%。第四季淨新資產為 470 億美元。全年淨新資產成長是由顧問主導的管道推動的，涉及現有客戶、新客戶和淨招聘。第四季交易收入為11億美元，剔除DCP的影響，隨著客戶投資結構性產品和固定收益產品，交易收入較去年同期略有成長。

Bank lending balances of $147 billion remained roughly flat, consistent with the environment. Total deposits increased 2% quarter-over-quarter to $346 billion driven by continued demand for our savings offering from our wealth management channel and a modest increase in sweep balances. Net interest income was $1.9 billion in the quarter. The sequential decrease was primarily driven by the mix of average deposits and the blended deposit costs in the quarter.

1,470 億美元的銀行貸款餘額基本上持平，與環境相符。由於財富管理管道對儲蓄產品的持續需求以及掃款餘額的小幅增長，存款總額環比增長 2%，達到 3,460 億美元。該季度淨利息收入為 19 億美元。環比下降主要是由本季平均存款和混合存款成本共同推動的。

Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2024, the deposit mix will continue to be the primary driver of net interest income. The modest sequential build in sweeps was promising and suggests we are nearing a level of frictional sweeps in client accounts. Assuming that the forward curve holds and that our assumptions around client behavior materialize, we would expect NII in the first quarter to be roughly in line with the fourth quarter. Our asset-led gathering strategy remains unchanged and we expect it to deliver margin expansion over time. The path is clear and includes the following objectives: first, increase relationships through our channel; second, migrate assets to advice; third, deepen existing client relationships with enhanced capabilities, including new products and solutions. And finally realize scale benefits of our investments over time.

展望2024年第一季度，存款結構仍將是淨利息收入的主要驅動力。掃描中適度的連續建造是有希望的，這表明我們正在接近客戶帳戶中摩擦掃描的水平。假設遠期曲線成立並且我們對客戶行為的假設得以實現，我們預期第一季的NII將與第四季大致一致。我們以資產為主導的聚集策略保持不變，我們預計它將隨著時間的推移實現利潤率的擴張。路徑很明確，包括以下目標：第一，透過我們的管道增加關係；第二，將資產遷移至諮詢；第三，透過增強的能力（包括新產品和解決方案）深化現有客戶關係。隨著時間的推移，最終實現我們投資的規模效益。

These efforts are well underway. In the year, we grew client relationships by over 600,000 across the franchise. This was led by success in the workplace channel as we continue to win corporate plans and add participants in stock plans. In the prior 3 years, we saw an average of $50 billion of workplace assets migrate to the advisor-led channel on an annual basis. This year, client migration was up 25% year-over-year despite economic headwinds. And on the products side, our financial advisers are offering clients investment opportunities such as private credit, private equity and other alternatives.

這些努力正在順利進行中。這一年，我們在整個特許經營範圍內增加了超過 60 萬名客戶關係。這是由工作場所管道的成功帶動的，因為我們不斷贏得企業計劃並增加股票計劃的參與者。在過去 3 年中，我們每年平均有 500 億美元的工作場所資產遷移到顧問主導的管道。儘管經濟不利，今年的客戶遷移量仍較去年同期成長 25%。在產品方面，我們的財務顧問為客戶提供私人信貸、私募股權和其他替代方案等投資機會。

Bringing wealth and investment management closer together will create greater opportunities for ongoing product creation. As we move forward and transition from integration to optimization for client experience, we expect to see greater scale benefits from our investments over time. Investment Management reported full year results of $5.4 billion and fourth quarter revenues of $1.5 billion. AUM increased year-over-year to $1.5 trillion supported by higher asset values. Long-term net inflows of approximately $7 billion -- excuse me, long-term net outflows of approximately $7 billion was driven by headwinds in our MSIM active equity growth strategy.

將財富和投資管理更加緊密地結合起來將為持續的產品創造創造更多機會。隨著我們不斷從整合轉向優化客戶體驗，我們預計隨著時間的推移，我們的投資將帶來更大的規模效益。投資管理公司公佈的全年業績為 54 億美元，第四季營收為 15 億美元。在資產價值上升的支撐下，資產管理規模年增至 1.5 兆美元。長期淨流入約 70 億美元——請原諒，約 70 億美元的長期淨流出是由我們的 MSIM 主動股票成長策略的逆風推動的。

Within alternatives and solutions, we continue to see demand for Parametric customized portfolios across both equity and fixed income strategies, as more retail clients seek customized solutions. Liquidity overlay services had outflows of $6.6 billion. Weaker institutional liquidity flows were partially offset by demand for Parametric's overlay products. And the combined Parametric brand, inclusive of overlay and its retail offering, had net inflows of over $5 billion, again this quarter, underscoring the strength of our differentiated customized offerings.

在替代方案和解決方案中，隨著越來越多的零售客戶尋求客製化解決方案，我們繼續看到股票和固定收益策略對參數客製化投資組合的需求。流動性覆蓋服務流出 66 億美元。對 Parametric 疊加產品的需求部分抵消了機構流動性疲軟的影響。合併後的 Parametric 品牌，包括 Overlay 及其零售產品，本季淨流入再次超過 50 億美元，凸顯了我們差異化客製化產品的實力。

Fourth quarter asset management and related fees of $1.4 billion increased slightly versus last year. Quarterly performance-based income and other revenues were $61 million. Gains in U.S. private equity and infrastructure offset losses in real estate, reflecting the benefits of diversification in the franchise. Turning to the balance sheet. Total spot assets were $1.2 trillion. Standardized RWAs increased by $13 billion sequentially to $457 billion, as we actively supported clients. We prudently managed our capital profile and ended the year with a standardized CET1 ratio of 15.2%, while focusing on our strategic priorities, including our commitment to return capital to our shareholders.

第四季資產管理及相關費用為 14 億美元，較去年略有增加。季度績效收入和其他收入為 6,100 萬美元。美國私募股權和基礎設施的收益抵消了房地產的損失，反映出特許經營多元化的好處。轉向資產負債表。現貨資產總額為 1.2 兆美元。由於我們積極支持客戶，標準化 RWA 連續增加 130 億美元，達到 4,570 億美元。我們審慎地管理我們的資本狀況，並在年底實現了 15.2% 的標準化 CET1 比率，同時專注於我們的策略重點，包括我們向股東返還資本的承諾。

Utilizing the flexibility of our repurchase authorization, we were opportunistic at the start of the fourth quarter and we bought back $1.3 billion of common stock. The full year tax rate was 21.9%, reflecting the realization of certain tax benefits earlier in the year. The fourth quarter's tax rate was 26.5%, primarily reflecting the tax implications of a specific legal matter. We expect the 2024 tax rate to be approximately 23%, consistent with prior years, we continue to expect some quarterly volatility. A number of idiosyncratic and macro headwinds added complexity to the backdrop over the last year.

利用回購授權的靈活性，我們在第四季初抓住了機會，回購了 13 億美元的普通股。全年稅率為21.9%，反映了年初實現的某些稅收優惠。第四季的稅率為26.5%，主要反映了特定法律事項的稅務影響。我們預計 2024 年的稅率約為 23%，與往年一致，我們仍然預期會出現一些季度波動。去年，一些特殊的宏觀逆風增加了背景的複雜性。

Notwithstanding these challenges, we ended the year better than where we started. We now have $6.6 trillion of client assets and we successfully completed our E*TRADE integration as it relates to capital markets, boardroom confidence is rising and our calendar is building. We approach 2024 with optimism, keenly aware of the dynamic environment we operate in, as we continue to drive towards our performance goals.

儘管面臨這些挑戰，我們今年的業績仍比年初好。我們現在擁有 6.6 兆美元的客戶資產，並且成功完成了與資本市場相關的 E*TRADE 整合，董事會信心不斷增強，我們的日程也在製定。我們以樂觀的態度迎接 2024 年，敏銳地意識到我們所處的動態環境，並繼續努力實現我們的業績目標。

With that, we will now open the line up to questions.

現在，我們將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Dan Fannon with Jefferies. It looks like we lost Dan, we'll move to Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們將回答 Dan Fannon 和 Jefferies 提出的第一個問題。看起來我們失去了 Dan，我們將搬到 Glenn Schorr 和 Evercore 一起工作。

So Sharon, I love how you laid out the picture on the wealth management margin potential. And I do like that sweeps have settled in. So I'm curious, in the big picture, has FA and client behavior changed a bunch on the cash management front such that, that's a potential driver of margin potential and why you're leaning towards that mid-20s near term versus the 30% where we were kind of hanging out when rates were lower and deposits were higher.

莎倫，我喜歡你對財富管理利潤潛力的描述。我確實喜歡掃蕩已經解決了。所以我很好奇，從大局來看，FA 和客戶行為是否在現金管理方面發生了很大的變化，這樣，這是利潤潛力的潛在驅動因素，也是你傾向於的原因短期內是 20 年代中期，而當利率較低且存款較高時，我們就處於 30% 的水平。

Is that the primary driver of the margin thought? And do you think behaviors changed, like permanently?

這是利潤率想法的主要驅動力嗎？你認為行為會改變嗎？例如永久改變嗎？

So can't speak to behaviors permanently. But I appreciate the question, Glenn. If we take a step back, it was always a idea, the premise of a sustainable growth in margin was really about ensuring that we continue to see growth in fee-based assets and we see growth in that migration towards the advice-based channel. And in fact, that is what you've begun to see. Look at our fee-based flows this quarter alone and think about the fee-based flows that we've had over the course of the year.

所以不能永遠談行為。但我很欣賞這個問題，格倫。如果我們退後一步，這始終是一個想法，利潤率可持續增長的前提實際上是確保我們繼續看到收費資產的增長，並且我們看到向基於建議的渠道遷移的增長。事實上，這就是你已經開始看到的。看看我們本季的收費流量，並考慮我們在這一年的收費流量。

We continue to educate our clients. So when we think through the funnel, we have more participants, we begin to see more assets and then those assets will, over time, migrate to advice. What you point out, as we think about the cash and what some might call cash sorting, et cetera, is that we still have that 22%, 23% sitting in cash equivalents, so not necessarily BDP but rather cash equivalents that don't necessarily earn a fee, right? Money markets, think of a savings product over time, et cetera, that you might see. As individuals begin to take that money and deploy it in the markets or deploy it into fee-based, that will be accretive to the margin over time.

我們繼續教育我們的客戶。因此，當我們仔細考慮管道時，我們有更多的參與者，我們開始看到更多的資產，然後隨著時間的推移，這些資產將遷移到建議。你指出，當我們考慮現金以及有些人可能稱之為現金分類等問題時，我們仍然有 22%、23% 的現金等價物，所以不一定是 BDP，而是不屬於 BDP 的現金等價物。一定要收取費用，對嗎？貨幣市場，想想你可能會看到的隨著時間推移的儲蓄產品等等。隨著個人開始將這筆錢部署到市場或部署到收費項目中，隨著時間的推移，利潤將會增加。

And that, to your point, is a place where you should begin to see a margin build and something that becomes more sustainable as we both grow our asset base and grow the advice and the client migration towards advice in those fee-based assets.

就您而言，您應該開始看到利潤率的提高，並且隨著我們擴大資產基礎並增加建議以及客戶轉向這些收費資產的建議，這種情況變得更加可持續。

Makes sense. I appreciate that. Maybe just a follow-up in wealth, if I could. It certainly doesn't show in your flows this quarter. So I guess I know where you're going to go with this but you're definitely hearing a lot more from the bank-owned wealth management companies that are turning up the heat a little bit on recruiting and a lot more on their intent to better penetrate their banking wallet -- clients wallet. So I'm curious if you feel any of that in your franchise, any of that where you compete and whether or not that impacts your thought process on your ability to attract some of the trillions of dollars held away that is always part of the growth story.

說得通。我很感激。如果可以的話，也許只是財富的後續。它肯定不會顯示在您本季的流量中。所以我想我知道你會怎麼做，但你肯定從銀行旗下的財富管理公司那裡聽到了更多的信息，這些公司在招聘方面加大了力度，並且更多地說明了他們的意圖更好地滲透他們的銀行錢包－客戶的錢包。所以我很好奇你是否在你的特許經營權中感受到了這些，在你競爭的任何地方，以及這是否會影響你的思維過程，影響你吸引數萬億美元的能力，而這始終是增長的一部分故事。

So the first point I would say is it's obviously always a competitive market but we're very well positioned given the tools that we've given to our advisers. A couple of points that I would make to you. The first is, when we look forward into the first quarter, that recruiting pipeline is healthy. So when we think about January and what we're seeing, we see the recruiting being healthy. The second point that I'd mention is, what I find to be most encouraging, when you look under the M&A data, is that we're seeing new clients come to Morgan Stanley.

因此，我要說的第一點是，這顯然始終是一個競爭激烈的市場，但考慮到我們為顧問提供的工具，我們處於非常有利的位置。我想向您指出幾點。首先，當我們展望第一季時，招募管道是健康的。因此，當我們思考一月份以及我們所看到的情況時，我們發現招聘情況良好。我要提到的第二點是，當你查看併購數據時，我發現最令人鼓舞的是，我們看到新客戶來到摩根士丹利。

So it's not just attracting assets all the way but rather you're actually getting new clients from those participants. And then you're seeing conversion. So when you think about some of the statistics that I gave you around workplace and we've talked about these statistics, the workplace assets that move over, you have 80% of those assets are actually assets that are coming from outside the institution. So you're bringing new clients in and then they're bringing their assets that are sitting away into the institution.

因此，這不僅是一路吸引資產，而且實際上是從這些參與者那裡獲得了新客戶。然後你就會看到轉換。因此，當您考慮我向您提供的有關工作場所的一些統計數據時，我們已經討論過這些統計數據，即轉移的工作場所資產，您會發現其中80% 的資產實際上是來自機構外部的資產。因此，您要引入新客戶，然後他們將現有的資產帶入該機構。

So I think we're well positioned to capture those opportunities. Final point that I'd make is on your banking products, actually, this idea of the E*TRADE integration, right and we talked about, we've completed the integration, and I said we're looking towards the forward of the front office integration, some of that will be around banking products, et cetera, as we think and we look ahead over a multiyear journey.

所以我認為我們處於有利位置來抓住這些機會。我要說的最後一點是關於你們的銀行產品，實際上，E*TRADE 集成的想法，我們談到過，我們已經完成了集成，我說我們正在展望前沿辦公室整合，其中一些將圍繞銀行產品等，正如我們所認為的，我們展望了多年的旅程。

We'll take our next question from Dan Fannon with Jefferies.

我們將回答 Dan Fannon 和 Jefferies 提出的下一個問題。

Congrats on the new role, Ted. I was hoping you could elaborate on the current environment and a little bit more and maybe what you see as the biggest opportunities for growth as you look to make progress against the longer-term targets that you've outlined?

恭喜你擔任新角色，泰德。我希望您能詳細說明當前的環境以及更多信息，也許您認為在實現您概述的長期目標方面取得進展時最大的增長機會是什麼？

I think we -- as you heard from my comments, we're generally constructive about what 2024 brings and it should be beneficial to both arms of the firm. Some of the reorientation of cash equivalents, whether they be in money markets or treasuries and the like that Sharon referred to and redeployed by our wealth clients into the markets, given increasing sense of stability, clearly good for FAs and for the wealth channel. In the investment bank, we've had a decade's long [rout] in IPOs, the slowest volume we've seen in decades. As you know, we've had very light M&A calendar. So that also has been at a trough, sort of early cycle type activity from our highest margin products inside of the investment bank, specifically inside of investment banking, we think, in order to our benefit too.

我認為，正如您從我的評論中聽到的那樣，我們總體上對 2024 年帶來的事情持建設性態度，這應該對公司的兩個部門都有利。莎倫提到的一些現金等價物的重新定位，無論是在貨幣市場還是國債等領域，以及我們的財富客戶在市場上的重新部署，考慮到穩定感不斷增強，這顯然有利於 FA 和財富渠道。在投資銀行領域，我們的首次公開募股經歷了長達十年的[潰敗]，這是幾十年來我們所見過的最慢的交易量。如您所知，我們的併購日程非常清淡。因此，我們認為，這也處於低谷，是我們在投資銀行內部（特別是在投資銀行內部）最高利潤產品的早期週期類型活動，也是為了我們的利益。

So we quite possibly could have a dynamic where if we are in this soft landing zone, we could see increased activity. Ultimately, we are in the tickets business activity based in both channels and benign economic conditions augur well for both wealth and investment but also for the investment bank. And part of the reason I wanted to talk about the integrated firm today was because the 2 segments are working together, will bring inevitably additional growth opportunities in the firm.

因此，我們很可能會出現一種動態，如果我們處於這個軟著陸區域，我們可能會看到活動增加。最終，我們從事基於兩種管道的門票業務活動，良好的經濟狀況對財富和投資以及投資銀行都是有利的。我今天想談論整合公司的部分原因是因為這兩個部門正在合作，將不可避免地為公司帶來額外的成長機會。

We have folks that have mobilized around the enterprise, are now in a position to talk to clients across the product spectrum and to bring in additional business. We have a big business, as you know, in Europe and in Asia. So if economic conditions are better than the expected, which is that Europe will struggle and China might as well. If we do any better than that, we would expect to see some increased activity coming out of those regions too. So it's not just a U.S. proposition but a global one as well.

我們的人員已經在整個企業中動員起來，現在能夠與整個產品範圍的客戶進行交談並帶來額外的業務。如您所知，我們在歐洲和亞洲擁有龐大的業務。因此，如果經濟狀況好於預期，歐洲將陷入困境，中國也可能陷入困境。如果我們做得更好，我們預計這些地區的活動也會增加。因此，這不僅是美國的主張，也是全球的主張。

Great. And you mentioned margins within the wealth channel or wealth segment will consolidate around the mid-20s here in the near term. Can you maybe unpack some of the inputs that will drive that outcome?

偉大的。您提到財富管道或財富細分市場的利潤率將在近期在 20 多歲左右鞏固。您能否解開一些將推動這一結果的輸入？

Certainly. I worked through that, I think, Dan, when I actually tried to explain it in the script. So the premise in terms of the growing wealth management margin, again, is about the conversion to the advice-based model over time. Of course, individuals will have different pieces, right? But we have 3 different channels that we've talked about. We talked about self-directed. We talked about workplace. We talked about advice.

當然。丹，當我真正嘗試在劇本中解釋它時，我想我已經解決了這個問題。因此，財富管理利潤率不斷增長的前提是隨著時間的推移轉向基於建議的模式的轉變。當然，每個人都會有不同的作品，對吧？但我們已經討論過 3 個不同的管道。我們談到了自我指導。我們談論了工作場所。我們討論了建議。

The self-directed side, we will continue to attract those clients and those that might be interested in advice, we'll see it as we have different ways to give people a sense and a connection to FA. So we've talked about that. On the workplace side, we continue to get new participants, new corporate relationships and that as we educate people with the wellness offering, et cetera -- and we've seen evidence of this, to bring people yet again to that advice-driven model. And the fee-based flows, as you see those, those will help us grow the asset management line.

在自我導向方面，我們將繼續吸引那些客戶和那些可能對建議感興趣的人，我們會看到這一點，因為我們有不同的方式讓人們對 FA 有所了解和聯繫。我們已經討論過了。在工作場所方面，我們不斷吸引新的參與者、新的企業關係，當我們向人們提供健康服務等方面的教育時，我們已經看到了這方面的證據，將人們再次帶入建議驅動的模式。正如你所看到的，基於費用的流量將幫助我們擴大資產管理業務。

Then you can break it down again, the transactional lines we've talked about. You're going to have new products and you're going to have a deployment of this cash that's been sitting on the sidelines that we've talked a lot about, the dry powder that could impact either the transactional line or the asset management line. And again, we're encouraged by the signs that we're seeing in NII. That too suggests that we are seeing, as of right now, it looks like that cash, that frictional level of cash is stabilizing. So thinking of the drivers in each of those lines as we think about the revenue side.

然後你可以再次分解它，我們已經討論過的事務線。你將擁有新產品，你將部署我們已經討論過很多次的處於觀望狀態的現金，這些現金可能會影響交易線或資產管理線。我們再次對 NII 中看到的跡象感到鼓舞。這也表明，截至目前，我們看到現金、現金摩擦水平正在穩定。因此，當我們考慮收​​入方面時，也要考慮每條線的驅動因素。

And then as you think about the expense side, we are looking for places to invest and gain from the scale of those investments and that will be as part of the objectives that Ted laid out when you see $10 trillion of assets.

然後，當您考慮費用方面時，我們正在尋找投資場所並從這些投資規模中獲利，這將是特德在看到 10 兆美元資產時制定的目標的一部分。

We'll move to our next question from Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

我們將轉向美國銀行 Ebrahim Poonawala 提出的下一個問題。

Welcome, Ted. Maybe just going back to the strategic update, going to Slide 13, where you sort of lay out very nicely the transformation over the last 15 years. As we look forward over the next 3 to 5 years, I was wondering if you can help fill in the blanks around, strategically, I mean M&A has been a key pillar of this transformation. As we think about both organic and inorganic; one, on the M&A side, give us a sense of just where you see deal making happening over the next few years. We saw a big private asset deal being announced on Friday. And so would love some perspective there. And then I think the second thing you mentioned in terms of wallet share on the investment banking side, if we can unpack that a little bit in terms of how you expect to achieve a greater wallet share.

歡迎，泰德。也許只是回到策略更新，轉到幻燈片 13，您在其中很好地展示了過去 15 年的轉型。當我們展望未來 3 到 5 年時，我想知道您是否可以幫助填補策略上的空白，我的意思是併購一直是這項轉型的關鍵支柱。當我們考慮有機和無機時；其中之一，在併購方面，讓我們了解未來幾年交易發生的情況。我們看到週五宣布了一項大型私人資產交易。所以我會喜歡那裡的一些觀點。然後我認為你提到的第二件事是投資銀行的錢包份額，如果我們可以根據你期望如何實現更大的錢包份額來稍微解釋一下。

Good to talk to you -- with you. It's an interesting question. You're effectively asking what will the slide look like 3, 4 years from now. We believe that the revenue mix will toggle around. There could be periods like in 2020 or '21, where the investment bank is really firing on all cylinders. Again, early economy type of activity and that could grow again towards 50%. And we are going to have other periods where, as we continue to invest in the wealth and investment management piece of the firm, that could expand further. I think where we are right now is a revenue and profitability matter where 60% of the firm is in wealth and investment management is not a bad place to start.

很高興與你交談——和你一起。這是一個有趣的問題。你其實是在問三、四年後這張投影片會是什麼樣子。我們相信收入結構將會改變。可能會有像 2020 年或 21 年這樣的時期，投資銀行真的會開足馬力。同樣，早期經濟類型的活動可能再次成長至 50%。隨著我們繼續投資公司的財富和投資管理部門，我們也將經歷其他時期，這種情況可能會進一步擴大。我認為我們現在的處境是收入和獲利能力問題，公司 60% 的人都擁有財富，投資管理是一個不錯的起點。

I think the main message I'd want to convey today is that while there is a change in leadership after 14 years of James' stewardship, there's not a change in strategy. We have undertaken and integrated -- if you really go back into time and then include Mesa West, 5 different acquisitions. And I think the view inside the house is that's, that's good for now. We can execute our business with the growth plans in front of us and it feels organic. Now that having been said, there are ideas that come across the transom and we naturally would take a look.

我認為我今天想傳達的主要訊息是，雖然在詹姆斯執掌 14 年之後領導層發生了變化，但策略沒有變化。如果你真的回到過去，然後包括 Mesa West，我們已經進行並整合了 5 項不同的收購。我認為房子裡面的景色目前來說很好。我們可以按照眼前的成長計畫來執行我們的業務，而且感覺很自然。話雖如此，現在有一些想法出現在橫樑上，我們自然會看看。

But I think for the next period, the view that I would have is that we really work to grow the organization and to do so organically and efficiently. I think on the margin, one comment might be that we could work on sweating the income statement a bit more. There's a little more work to be done post integration where there could be inefficiencies along the income statement. And I think we are much focused on looking for those efficiencies without giving up any of the strategic investment that we want to make on our way to 30% PBT margins in wealth and 70% efficiency of the firm.

但我認為，在下一個時期，我的觀點是，我們真正致力於發展組織，並有機、有效率地實現這一目標。我認為，從側面來看，一個評論可能是我們可以在損益表上多花一點功夫。整合後還有更多工作要做，損益表可能會效率低。我認為，我們非常專注於尋求這些效率，而不放棄任何我們想要進行的策略性投資，以實現 30% 的 PBT 財富利潤率和 70% 的公司效率。

The way I've articulated the strategic goals is to effectively reiterate we will achieve those goals. But along the way, we will invest and that investment opportunity exists on the current portfolio in an exciting way. And that is why, for me, the most important message we wanted to send out to folks today with this concept of the integrated firm. Now we have the portfolio of businesses together. We have a unified partnership culture. We have the 2 halves of the firm, it'll toggle by 5 or 10 points on revenue or profitability given a period of time and now we can scale that organically and hit the numbers and work the income statement a little bit.

我闡明策略目標的方式是有效地重申我們將實現這些目標。但一路走來，我們將以令人興奮的方式進行投資，並且當前投資組合中存在投資機會。這就是為什麼，對我來說，我們今天想透過綜合公司的概念向人們傳達最重要的訊息。現在我們擁有了業務組合。我們擁有統一的合作夥伴文化。我們擁有公司的兩半，在一段時間內，它的收入或盈利能力會切換 5 或 10 個百分點，現在我們可以有機地擴展規模，達到數字並稍微處理損益表。

We'll move to our next question from Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

我們將轉向 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak 提出的下一個問題。

I wanted to start off, I think, Sharon, with just a question on incremental margins and comp leverage in a lower rate backdrop. We know NII is going to be a source of drag in the coming quarter, certainly if the forward curve manifests but fee should see improved momentum from equity market tailwinds, stronger fee base flows, a better IB backdrop. But the Street is modeling comp dollars flat, revenues up about $2 billion.

莎倫，我想，我想先提出一個關於較低利率背景下的增量利潤和比較槓桿的問題。我們知道，如果遠期曲線顯現，NII 將成為下個季度的拖累來源，但費用應該會因股市順風、更強的費用基礎流量和更好的 IB 背景而得到改善。但華爾街預測公司薪酬持平，營收成長約 20 億美元。

I'm just trying to get a sense of how we should think about incremental margins as revenue momentum improves but the growth is coming in mainly from more compensable areas.

我只是想了解隨著收入動能的改善，我們應該如何考慮增量利潤，但成長主要來自更可補償的領域。

So you obviously did hit the nail on the head in terms of the different pieces, right? So you can't look at the different line items the same way. You're going to have a comp ratio change as FAs get compensated, as you would expect, on the grid, associated with those fee-based revenues. As it relates to NII, yes, that was noncompensable, as I just told you the expectation. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, if client behavior remains unchanged, you are sitting in a position where you're beginning to better understand what that behavior is and that NII will be roughly in line with where it was in the fourth quarter, at least for the first quarter.

所以你顯然在不同的方面確實擊中了要害，對吧？因此，您不能以相同的方式查看不同的訂單項目。正如您所期望的那樣，隨著 FA 在電網上獲得與這些收費收入相關的補償，您的補償比率將會發生變化。就 NII 而言，是的，這是不可補償的，正如我剛剛告訴您的期望一樣。按季度計算，如果客戶行為保持不變，您將開始更好地了解該行為是什麼，並且 NII 將大致與第四季度的情況一致，至少在第一季是如此。

So yes, the comp itself might change but the actual growth in the ability to see the fee-based assets grow is higher. There are also other offsetting factors that we have to think about as we look back into the last year. Remember that what I highlighted was, you had negative implications associated with mix of revenue in those asset management lines because of the fact that we saw investors invest in the fixed income products. You add market dynamics associated with billing, et cetera. So there is place -- there are rather places that you can see growth in the asset management line.

所以，是的，薪酬本身可能會發生變化，但看到收費資產成長的能力的實際成長會更高。當我們回顧去年時，我們還必須考慮其他抵消因素。請記住，我強調的是，由於我們看到投資者投資於固定收益產品，因此這些資產管理產品線的收入組合產生了負面影響。您添加與計費等相關的市場動態。因此，在某些地方，您可以看到資產管理業務的成長。

Yes, they will be compensable but we would see benefits of scale, both from the asset side and hopefully, from the market side as you see different pieces being invested as you move forward. I hope that helps to frame the answer to your question.

是的，它們將是可補償的，但我們會看到規模帶來的好處，無論是從資產方面，還是希望從市場方面，因為隨著你的前進，你會看到不同的部分被投資。我希望這有助於回答您的問題。

You know, that's really helpful. And just for my follow-up, I was hoping you could just speak to the sensitivity to lower rates. It's a big area of focus for investors. You benefit from having the majority of your deposits in premium savings, where admittedly you have bigger pricing flexibility. At the same time, the asset side is still very sensitive to the short end. So I wanted to get a sense as to how you expect the NII trajectory to unfold as the Fed begins easing and whether there's any appetite on your side to extend duration to maybe lock in some higher yields.

你知道，這真的很有幫助。對於我的後續行動，我希望您能談談對較低利率的敏感度。這是投資人關注的重要領域。您可以從將大部分存款存入保費儲蓄中獲益，無可否認，您擁有更大的定價彈性。同時，資產端對空頭依然非常敏感。因此，我想了解一下，隨著聯準會開始寬鬆，您預計NII軌跡將如何展開，以及您是否有興趣延長久期以鎖定更高的收益率。

That's a great question. And the answer is fully premised on what we see first with deposits, right? So your sort of first order condition, as you look ahead into 2024 is, what happens to the deposit mix? What I said on the call is that we're encouraged -- in my prepared remarks, we're encouraged by what we've seen to date, as the beginning of January. If you were to assume that, that were to hold, the next question is, what is the pace of the interest rate cuts that we see?

這是一個很好的問題。答案完全以我們首先看到的存款為前提，對吧？因此，當您展望 2024 年時，您的首要條件是，存款組合會發生什麼？我在電話中所說的是，我們感到鼓舞——在我準備好的演講中，我們對一月初迄今為止所看到的情況感到鼓舞。如果你假設這一點成立，那麼下一個問題是，我們看到的降息步伐是多少？

If you see an instantaneous shock, we disclose to you what that means, right? So an instantaneous 100-basis point shock lower will be negative, around $600 million, right? However, if it was more gradual in nature, which is similar to what you might see in the forward curve, you will have offsets associated with the reinvestment of the portfolio. So that will offset the rate decline, right, will largely offset those rate declines. But it will depend, first order condition, is our deposits stable, is the mix stable and that's what we've seen so far. So let's see if that holds. And then second, what is the pace of the cuts over the course of the year.

如果您看到瞬間震動，我們會向您透露這意味著什麼，對吧？因此，瞬時下跌 100 個基點將帶來負面影響，約 6 億美元，對嗎？然而，如果它本質上更加漸進，這類似於您在遠期曲線中可能看到的情況，您將獲得與投資組合再投資相關的抵消。因此，這將抵消利率下降，對，將在很大程度上抵消利率下降。但這將取決於，一階條件，我們的存款是否穩定，混合是否穩定，這就是我們迄今為止所看到的。那麼讓我們看看這是否成立。其次，今年的削減速度是多少。

We'll move to our next question from Devin Ryan with JMP Securities.

我們將轉向 JMP 證券的 Devin Ryan 提出的下一個問題。

Sharon, maybe just start with a question on investment banking and good to hear about the tone improvement there. Sponsors have been less active than corporates, at least from the data we track. And we know sponsors have record dry powder but higher interest rates, current valuations have been a little bit challenging for them. So just the question is whether they are in a position to return in force over the next year.

莎倫，也許只是從一個有關投資銀行的問題開始，很高興聽到那裡的語氣有所改善。至少從我們追蹤的數據來看，贊助商的活躍程度不如企業。我們知道贊助商擁有創紀錄的乾火藥，但利率更高，目前的估值對他們來說有點挑戰。因此，問題在於他們是否能夠在明年回歸。

I think that's probably going to be necessary for full normalization in investment banking. And then just what you're seeing when you talk about the pipelines that you have, which are good, what are sponsors doing in those pipelines?

我認為這對於投資銀行業的全面正常化可能是必要的。然後，當您談論您擁有的管道時，您會看到什麼，這些管道很好，贊助商在這些管道中做什麼？

Sure. Overall, the pipeline is more diversified than we've necessarily seen in historical years. We expect to see continued momentum in energy that we've seen over the past year. We see optimistic signs in real estate and we see optimistic signs in technology. As it relates to sponsors, we would expect sponsors to come back. That will obviously take time and I do think it will likely take a couple of potential (inaudible) in certain places and other things that will be encouraging will be on the equity IPO side.

當然。總體而言，管道比我們過去幾年所看到的更加多樣化。我們預計能源將繼續保持去年的勢頭。我們在房地產領域看到了樂觀的跡象，在科技領域也看到了樂觀的跡象。由於這與贊助商有關，我們預計贊助商會回來。這顯然需要時間，我確實認為在某些地方可能需要一些潛力（聽不清楚），而其他令人鼓舞的事情將在股權 IPO 方面。

What I'd say is, we've moved from a period of time that was window driven and that market is beginning to build momentum. And so the juxtaposition between the outlook for '24, I think in '23, is important there as well.

我想說的是，我們已經擺脫了窗口驅動的時期，市場開始形成動力。因此，我認為 24 年的前景和 23 年的前景之間的並列也很重要。

Okay. Terrific. And then a question for Ted. So I think you're pretty clear here, the strategic trajectory is not changing dramatically. But we often get the question around stylistically what's changing. And so you have a different background than James. I think everyone has their own management style and you've run some big businesses, very successfully for Morgan Stanley. So want to maybe just hit on briefly how you would characterize kind of your style and just the ability to leverage your experience and what may change as a result of that?

好的。了不起。然後問特德一個問題。所以我想你已經很清楚了，戰略軌跡並沒有發生巨大的變化。但我們經常問風格上發生了什麼變化。所以你和詹姆斯有不同的背景。我認為每個人都有自己的管理風格，你經營過一些大企業，摩根士丹利非常成功。所以想簡單地談談您如何描述您的風格以及利用您的經驗的能力以及因此可能會發生什麼變化？

James and I are more -- much more similar than not. He brings to the table a positive mojo to the business from the time that he took over as CEO when things were in, as you know, pretty rough shape. And for now in his 15th year of leadership as Exec Chair, he brings a positive spirit to every single interaction that we have, whether it's our operating and management committees, our risk meetings, these calls, client interactions, cultural work with our -- with our newbies and folks that are looking to get promoted in the organization.

詹姆斯和我有更多相似之處。從他接任執行長起，他就為公司帶來了積極的魔力，正如你所知，當時的情況相當糟糕。現在，在他擔任執行主席的第15 年裡，他為我們的每一次互動帶來了積極的精神，無論是我們的營運和管理委員會、我們的風險會議、這些電話、客戶互動、與我們的文化工作－與我們的新手和希望在組織中晉升的人一起。

I think that spirit of positivity is something that has been contagious in the organization. It's something that I'm a big believer in and has worked well inside of the trading businesses, inside of investment banking and I think you can feel it throughout the firm. So the reaffirmation of our partnership, our core values and this articulation of the integrated firm, which is the next step now because we went from trying to build our way back, to generating the kind of enhanced scale and deeper moat through these gutsy acquisitions. That brought us to a place now where we can look around and see how we can bring the firm closer together.

我認為積極的精神在組織中具有感染力。這是我堅信的東西，並且在交易業務和投資銀行內部運作良好，我認為你可以在整個公司中感受到這一點。因此，重申我們的合作夥伴關係、我們的核心價值以及整合公司的闡述，這是現在的下一步，因為我們從試圖重建自己的道路，轉向透過這些大膽的收購擴大規模和加深護城河。這使我們現在可以環顧四周，看看如何使公司更加緊密地團結在一起。

I think the tone is one of determination. I've been at this place for more than 3 decades and we had our moment sort of before the abyss in a way and I think it's fair to say that the entire senior partnership, James but also the folks that came through the organization, like myself, we are determined to not revisit anything that feels like those days. So the calling card here is durability, is consistency. We want to put up consistent results. Part of what you see in the strategic deck in the back page, those are very clear numbers and we will hit them.

我認為語氣是一種決心。我在這個地方已經工作了 30 多年，我們在某種程度上經歷了深淵之前的時刻，我認為可以公平地說，整個高級合夥人，詹姆斯，還有來自該組織的人們，例如我自己，我們決心不再重溫那些日子的感覺。所以這裡的名片是耐用性、一致性。我們希望取得一致的結果。您在背面的戰略甲板上看到的部分內容是非常清晰的數字，我們將擊中它們。

We will hit those numbers. It will take time. We will have to do all of the 3 yards and a cloud of dust work associated with and thoughtfully working our way to those numbers such that when we hit them in a normalized environment, which will be part of the next arrow on Page 3 in the years to come, we will have done so in a way where we can achieve full valuation on it because the view will be that they are not only achieved for a moment in time but sustainable. And that obviously is also the calling card of James' tenure, which is that of consistency and durability.

我們將達到這些數字。需要花時間。我們將必須完成與這些數字相關的所有 3 碼和灰塵工作，並深思熟慮地努力達到這些數字，以便當我們在標準化環境中擊中它們時，這將是第 3 頁上的下一個箭頭的一部分未來幾年，我們將以一種能夠對其進行全面評估的方式來實現這一目標，因為我們認為這些目標不僅是暫時實現的，而且是可持續的。這顯然也是詹姆斯任期內的名片，那就是一致性和耐用性。

So if the first is his positive mojo and the second is his ethos of consistency, rigor, durability, I think the third, at the end of the day, has been to believe in what Morgan Stanley can aspire to for clients. And that is this integrated firm that we are something differentiated in our 2 channels, very clear on what we do and what we don't do and that the cycle is very much a tailwind for us.

因此，如果第一個是他積極的魔力，第二個是他一貫、嚴謹、持久的精神，我認為第三個，歸根結底，就是相信摩根士丹利能為客戶帶來什麼。這就是一家綜合性公司，我們在兩個管道中具有差異化，非常清楚我們做什麼和不做什麼，而且這個週期對我們來說非常有利。

We'll move to our next question from Christian Bolu with Autonomous Research.

我們將轉向克里斯蒂安·博盧與自主研究提出的下一個問題。

Maybe, Ted, for you, on the trading businesses, Morgan Stanley has suffered some share loss over the last couple of years and your peers have been aggressively allocating capital to that business and gaining share. So maybe curious on how you're thinking about opportunities to grow those businesses and any plans to either invest more capital or resources into that business?

特德，也許對您而言，在交易業務方面，摩根士丹利在過去幾年中遭受了一些份額損失，而您的同行一直在積極向該業務配置資本並獲得份額。那麼，您可能想知道您如何考慮發展這些業務的機會以及是否有計劃向該業務投資更多資本或資源？

Christian, good to hear your voice. I think we know that we have -- we have achieved the top 3 position in the Institutional Securities business over the last number of years. But as you say on the margin, we have lost share to the #1 and #2. And I think our view has been that, that is a trade that we've been willing to make both to continue to toggle the organization to the kind of revenue and profitability mix that you see today. But also importantly, the preservation of capital, which allows us today irrespective of where we are in Basel III Endgame to have a CET1 ratio that is well above 15%.

克里斯蒂安，很高興聽到你的聲音。我想我們知道，在過去的幾年裡，我們已經在機構證券業務中名列前三名。但正如你所說，我們的份額已經輸給了排名第一和第二的公司。我認為我們的觀點是，我們一直願意進行這種交易，以繼續將組織轉變為您今天看到的那種收入和盈利能力組合。但同樣重要的是，資本的保存，使我們今天無論處於巴塞爾協議 III 終局階段的哪個階段，都能擁有遠高於 15% 的 CET1 比率。

As you've heard, I am with the team, much focused on the durability of the dividend. And so there's been a real focus on what shareholders want and what the business model ought to be for folks that want a durable Morgan Stanley. Now that having been said, what you saw in 2020 was that we can be quite agile about getting capital resourcing to the client base if the tailwinds are there. Part of the proposition of being a global investment bank is that, if, for example, balances start working in the prime brokerage context or if there are '21, '22 highs, where we're about 10% away from those figures, well, then perhaps capital needs to be put towards equities, namely the front brokerage business on behalf of clients.

正如你所聽到的，我和團隊一起，非常關注股息的持久性。因此，人們真正關注的是股東想要什麼，以及對於那些想要持久的摩根士丹利的人來說，商業模式應該是什麼。話雖如此，您在 2020 年看到的是，如果順風順水，我們可以非常靈活地為客戶群提供資本資源。成為全球投資銀行的部分主張是，例如，如果餘額開始在大宗經紀業務中發揮作用，或者如果出現「21」、「22」高點，那麼我們距離這些數字大約有 10% 的距離，那麼，那麼也許資金需要投向股票，也就是代表客戶的前端經紀業務。

There may be other periods where the event space, which was an illusion made on the previous question with respect to activity around financial sponsors, that, that activity may come back because, of course, at some point, these large assets need to trade in the sponsor community, is dependent at some level on the Street to engage in velocity. So there is no strategic decision at all to withdraw from the investment bank. I think what we would say in 2024 is that it's not really a choice between wealth and investment management or the Institutional Securities business.

可能還有其他時期，活動空間（這是對上一個問題有關金融贊助商活動的幻想）可能會回來，因為當然，在某些時候，這些大型資產需要進行交易贊助商社區在某種程度上依賴於華爾街來提高速度。所以根本不存在退出投行的戰略決策。我認為到 2024 年我們會說，這實際上並不是財富和投資管理或機構證券業務之間的選擇。

We will engage in both activities but we will not be looking to chase the ball simply to have wallet share. The name of the game is to have an income statement that demonstrates operating leverage in each of the 2 businesses and ultimately, to get to holistic returns. So we are much focused on what the durability of that capital put to use is and where we can serve clients over a long period of time. We're paying attention to it very, very carefully. And what I'm most excited about, Christian, is that the cycle that's coming, the investment banking-led cycle is coming at a time when we spent years putting together and I know you've met some of these folks, or so-called integrated investment bank.

我們將參與這兩項活動，但我們不會僅僅為了獲得錢包份額而追逐球。遊戲的名稱是擁有一份損益表，展示這兩項業務中每一項業務的營運槓桿，並最終獲得整體回報。因此，我們非常關注資本投入使用的持久性以及我們可以長期為客戶提供服務的地方。我們非常非常仔細地關注它。克里斯蒂安，我最興奮的是，即將到來的周期，以投資銀行為主導的周期即將到來，而我們花了數年時間共同努力，我知道你已經見過其中一些人，或者諸如此類的人——稱為綜合投資銀行。

What is differentiated about this place is that we have bankers, equities people and fixed income folks who work together. They work together on client solutions. What I'm proposing on our behalf is now we extend that proposition to the firm. We're at -- in the wealth business, the investment management business and inside the investment bank. We can work together around clients ultimately to generate operating leverage and returns. And that is for me, the most exciting part of the next chapter, which is, we got the team, we've got the excess capital.

這個地方的與眾不同之處在於，我們有銀行家、股票從業人員和固定收益人員一起工作。他們共同致力於客戶解決方案。我代表我們提出的建議是，我們現在將這項建議延伸到公司。我們從事財富業務、投資管理業務、投資銀行內部。我們可以圍繞客戶共同努力，最終產生營運槓桿和回報。對我來說，這是下一章最令人興奮的部分，那就是，我們有了團隊，我們有了多餘的資本。

But again, I like the excess capital because it's part of what has differentiated us from the group and allows us to weather whatever comes through on Basel III Endgame. I would add if, in fact, the Basel III Endgame outcome is more favorable than perhaps that the Street expects. We will adjust accordingly but we have tools. And part of that's dividend, part of that's investing in the business. Part of that, obviously, is buying stock back. But ultimately, having a real capital cushion is something that shareholders have come to expect from James and that's something they should continue to expect from me.

但同樣，我喜歡多餘的資本，因為它是我們與集團的區別的一部分，使我們能夠經受住巴塞爾協議III終局之戰所經歷的一切。我想補充一點，事實上，巴塞爾協議 III 的最終結果是否比華爾街預期的更有利。我們會相應調整，但我們有工具。其中一部分是股息，一部分是對業務的投資。顯然，其中一部分就是回購股票。但最終，擁有真正的資本緩衝是股東對詹姆斯的期望，也是他們應該繼續對我的期望。

Awesome. Very clear, Ted. And then maybe another one on Wealth Management margins, unfortunately, maybe for Sharon. I kind of hear you, Sharon, very clearly that you think higher revenues will drive margins over time. I guess -- but if I just about look at the business, 2019 versus today, wealth management revenues are up 50%. This is where they were in 2019, where your margins have compressed. And again, I know there's onetime items in the quarter, or in the year but it doesn't seem to me like bigger revenues have driven operating leverage. So what gives you confidence that going forward, revenue growth will drive meaningful operating leverage?

驚人的。非常清楚，泰德。不幸的是，也許還有財富管理利潤的另一項，也許是莎倫的。莎倫，我聽得很清楚，你認為隨著時間的推移，更高的收入將提高利潤率。我猜想，但如果我只看一下業務，2019 年與今天相比，財富管理收入成長了 50%。這就是 2019 年的情況，你的利潤率已經壓縮。再說一次，我知道本季或當年有一些一次性項目，但在我看來，更大的收入並沒有推動營運槓桿。那麼，是什麼讓您相信未來營收成長將推動有意義的營運槓桿呢？

Really around the conversion. That's why I keep talking about the conversion, Christian. We brought the statistics up last year. We've brought the statistics up again this year in terms of seeing conversion from workplace, about seeing net new assets coming in and then seeing those assets migrate. New clients giving FAs time. All of those things are able to give us more durable asset management-based revenue as we move forward.

真正圍繞著轉換。這就是為什麼我一直在談論轉變，克里斯蒂安。我們去年提出了統計數據。今年，我們再次提出了工作場所轉換、淨新資產流入以及這些資產遷移的統計數據。新客戶給 FA 時間。隨著我們的前進，所有這些都能夠為我們帶來更持久的基於資產管理的收入。

So to your question and I think Steve asked a similar question, the NII will fluctuate, obviously, based on rates and on consumer and customer behavior. And so the goal, while that has been something that we say, don't forget the bank. Don't forget the margin that you'll get from that. Over time, the goal is to have a more sustainable $1 trillion of assets coming through both wealth and investment management, those assets will earn fees to some portion of it and we see the migration into fee-based, right? We have 50% of advisor-led assets sitting in fee-based accounts.

因此，對於您的問題（我認為史蒂夫也問過類似的問題），NII 顯然會根據費率以及消費者和客戶行為而波動。因此，雖然我們已經說了這個目標，但不要忘記銀行。不要忘記您將從中獲得的利潤。隨著時間的推移，我們的目標是透過財富和投資管理獲得更永續的 1 兆美元資產，這些資產的一部分將賺取費用，我們看到了向收費模式的轉變，對嗎？我們 50% 的顧問主導資產存放在收費帳戶中。

That's the ultimate proposition from seeing an expanded margin and seeing the benefits of scale. And we have invested in workplace. We've invested in getting new channels and getting new participants. The time is now to begin to see conversion and we have evidence, factual evidence that I pointed to on this call to show you that we're making progress towards those goals.

這是看到利潤擴大和規模效益的最終主張。我們對工作場所進行了投資。我們投資了新管道和新參與者。現在是開始看到轉變的時候了，我們有證據，我在這次電話會議上指出的事實證據，向你們表明我們正在朝著這些目標取得進展。

What I'd add, Christian, is, again, all goals being equally important, we will hit that $10 trillion number. So part of it is to allow for some of this latency, if you will, on assets held away, on assets working their way through workplace. It's a space that we are a leader in. It's a space that is relatively embryonic in the wealth business. And we will allow for some time for those assets to convert. But the key, of course, is to have them in-house and then as well to see that folks who are our new workplace customers have assets held away in other existing brokerage accounts that they bring them to the firm as well.

Christian，我要補充的是，所有目標都同樣重要，我們將達到 10 兆美元的數字。因此，部分原因是要考慮到一些延遲，如果你願意的話，在資產被保留的情況下，在資產在工作場所工作的情況下。這是我們處於領先地位的領域。這是一個在財富業務中相對處於萌芽階段的領域。我們將留出一些時間讓這些資產轉換。但當然，關鍵是讓他們留在公司內部，然後看到我們的新工作場所客戶也將資產存放在其他現有的經紀帳戶中，並將這些資產帶到公司。

Due to time constraints, we'll take just 1 question and no follow-up going forward from analysts. Our next question comes from Brennan Hawken with UBS.

由於時間限制，我們只回答 1 個問題，分析師不會進行後續跟進。我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布倫南霍肯。

Congrats to Ted on the new role. I will -- since I only get 1 shot at this, I will ask on the long-term targets. So we -- there were some slight changes here. We lost some pluses and we lost less than on the efficiency ratio, although in fairness, we gained a plus on the client assets. So was that a reflection of -- these are long-term targets, so I'm guessing it's not really a reflection of the current environment.

祝賀特德擔任新職務。我會——因為我只有一次機會，所以我會詢問長期目標。所以我們——這裡有一些細微的變化。我們失去了一些優勢，而且我們的損失小於效率比，儘管公平地說，我們在客戶資產上獲得了優勢。這是否反映了——這些是長期目標，所以我猜這並不是真正反映當前環境。

So what drove the tweak there to maybe signal some reduction in some of the upside scenarios? And how should -- you've referenced the fact that you need the environment to normalize, how should we be thinking about progression towards these targets? And what specific nonenvironmental actions you can be taking in order to move the ball there.

那麼，是什麼推動了這項調整，可能預示著一些上行情境有所減少呢？您提到了需要環境正常化的事實，我們應該如何考慮實現這些目標的進展？以及您可以採取哪些具體的非環境行動來實現這一目標。

Yes. Excellent question. And a lot of time given to consideration on pluses and the like. This, for me, was sort of an easy call. The page is one that we all own and getting to 30% margins is a number that we want to achieve. And at that level, having hit something that is approaching $10 trillion assets, we're going to be in a really great place. And that would be a reasonable time to say, hey, how about more. And we'd say, okay, well, clearly, we're going to continue to grow assets because the asset number, way that TAM is, is gigantic. James has mentioned, $20 trillion at one point.

是的。很好的問題。並且花了很多時間考慮優點等。對我來說，這是一個簡單的決定。該頁面是我們所有人都擁有的頁面，獲得 30% 的利潤率是我們想要實現的目標。在這個水平上，在資產規模接近 10 兆美元之後，我們將處於一個非常好的位置。那是一個合理的時機，可以說，嘿，再來點怎麼樣。我們會說，好吧，很明顯，我們將繼續增加資產，因為資產數量，就像 TAM 一樣，是巨大的。詹姆斯曾經提到過，20兆美元。

There are client assets that will keep us busy for many generations to come. Whether the pretax margin of, whether it should go about 30% at that point, before or not, I'd like to get to the 30% and I want to get there durably and thoughtfully. And the mid-20s is a range that you've seen us trade at the business to work well at and we believe we can when economic conditions normalize, as Sharon described and as new assets get put to work some combination of money markets and T-bills coming into the market again, workplace coming through the funnel. All 3 channels working on the back of increased transaction activity and new issues and the like.

有些客戶資產將使我們的子孫後代繼續忙碌。無論稅前利潤率是否應該達到 30% 左右，無論之前與否，我都想達到 30%，而且我想持久且深思熟慮地達到這個目標。 20 多歲是我們在業務中交易的一個範圍，可以很好地運作，我們相信，當經濟狀況正常化時，正如莎倫所描述的那樣，隨著新資產投入使用，貨幣市場和T 的某種組合，我們可以做到這一點。- 帳單再次進入市場，工作場所透過漏斗進入。所有 3 個管道都在交易活動增加和新問題等的支持下運作。

We should slowly and durably work our way back to 30%. The efficiency ratio, as you know, is just another way of saying 30% margins for the enterprise. Now by definition, the investment bank which has more capital and more underlying risk should have margins that exceed 30% over time. So it's fair to say that if we're hitting 30% margins in Wealth Management, we certainly should be at an enterprise efficiency ratio of 1 minus 70%, 30% as well. So 30% plus could be a way of thinking about it but I wanted to set up numbers where the team knew that they are specific and that we needed to hit them.

我們應該緩慢而持久地努力回到 30%。如你所知，效率比只是企業 30% 利潤率的另一種說法。現在根據定義，擁有更多資本和更多潛在風險的投資銀行隨著時間的推移其利潤率應該超過30%。因此，可以公平地說，如果我們的財富管理利潤率達到 30%，那麼我們的企業效率當然應該達到 1 - 70%，甚至 30%。所以 30% 以上可能是一種思考方式，但我想設定一個數字，讓團隊知道這些數字是具體的，我們需要達到這些數字。

And then finally, with respect to returns on capital, this gets to the importance of our being stewards of that capital, what we pay out in the form of dividends, what we buy back and durably how we run the place. So we thought that 20% of ROTCE, which is something we hit during the COVID years. But of course, those were against the macroeconomic conditions, which were unusual and highly favorable that we can do 20% in a normalized environment. So this may be on the margin. And James, liked it too. When we talked about it, stylistically, my view was and the team shares it that (inaudible) the client assets, we should get there and just keep on going.

最後，關於資本回報，這涉及到我們作為資本管理者的重要性，我們以股息的形式支付什麼，我們回購什麼，以及我們如何持久地經營這個地方。所以我們認為 ROTCE 的 20%，這是我們在新冠疫情期間達到的目標。但當然，這些都是針對宏觀經濟條件而言的，宏觀經濟條件是不尋常的，並且非常有利於我們在正常化環境下實現 20% 的目標。所以這可能是在邊緣。詹姆斯也喜歡它。當我們在風格上談論它時，我的觀點是，團隊也認為（聽不清楚）客戶資產，我們應該到達那裡並繼續前進。

But the other 3, effectively in removing the pluses, it's simply reaffirming that those numbers will be hit. We will hit 30% pretax margins in wealth, 70% efficiency ratio for the firm and 20% ROTCE. It will take time. It will be -- the challenges you would expect in making that happen. And of course, we need economic conditions to line up in a favorable way. But over time, those are the firm-wide goals and we wanted to be very specific about that for you.

但其他三個，有效地消除了優勢，只是重申了這些數字將會受到打擊。我們將實現 30% 的稅前財富利潤、70% 的公司效率和 20% 的 ROTCE。需要花時間。這將是——你所期望實現這一目標的挑戰。當然，我們需要經濟條件以有利的方式排列。但隨著時間的推移，這些都是公司範圍內的目標，我們希望為您提供非常具體的目標。

We'll take our last question from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們將回答富國銀行證券公司麥克梅奧的最後一個問題。

Okay. Well, it looks like you have a heavy lift after following James Gorman's (inaudible) path. What is your message to the wealth managers and investment managers, that half of the company that you haven't run in the past. So you've proven yourself in half the company, that's clearly capital markets and Wall Street banking. But what's your message to the other half of the company at a time when they've had a step down in their growth rates, new asset flows on wealth and outflows in investment management.

好的。好吧，在遵循詹姆斯戈爾曼（聽不清楚）的道路之後，您似乎感到很沉重。您想向財富管理機構和投資管理機構傳達什麼訊息，這一半的公司是您過去沒有經營過的？所以你已經在一半的公司中證明了自己，這顯然是資本市場和華爾街銀行業。但是，當公司的另一半成長率下降、財富新資產流動和投資管理資金外流時，你想向他們傳達什麼訊息呢？

Mike, the Wealth business is actually in my blood. My dad and my father-in-law were both brokers once upon a time and I grew up studying that business as a kid. And I think it is absolutely that, which is differentiated on Morgan Stanley during this 15-year period. The ability to integrate Smith Barney and build out something that's truly special is -- has been existentially, as you know better than most but also thematically exactly what the firm has needed.

麥克，財富事業其實已經融入了我的血液。我的父親和岳父都曾經是經紀人，我從小就學習這個行業。我認為這絕對是摩根士丹利在這 15 年期間的差異化之處。整合美邦並打造出真正特別的東西的能力是存在的，正如你比大多數人更了解的那樣，而且從主題上也正是公司所需要的。

In no way has it actually worked to the disbenefit of the investment bank. As you know, the history of our merger from '97 was largely about social issues but the industrial idea wasn't necessarily off at all. To build a world-class wealth manager would be something that would have enormous barriers to entry and they have run well and run in a first-class way to deliver value to clients in a differentiated manner. And what we have done, thanks to the leadership of Andy Saperstein with Jed Finn and then the investment management business with Dan Simkowitz now moving over to the Investment Bank and Ben Huneke and Jacques Chappuis running investment management today is, we've got effectively the full funnel.

它實際上並沒有給投資銀行帶來任何損害。如你所知，我們從 97 年開始的合併歷史主要涉及社會問題，但工業理念並不一定完全錯誤。打造世界一流的財富管理機構是有巨大准入門檻的，但他們運作良好，以一流的方式運營，以差異化的方式為客戶創造價值。感謝安迪·薩珀斯坦(Andy Saperstein) 和傑德·芬恩(Jed Finn) 的領導，以及丹·西姆科維茨(Dan Simkowitz) 的投資管理業務現在轉移到投資銀行，以及今天由本·胡內克(Ben Huneke) 和雅克·查普伊斯(Jacques Chappuis) 負責投資管理，我們所做的就是，我們實際上已經獲得了完整的漏斗。

We've got the soup to nuts, self-directed the traditional advisory channel and this new channel workplace are working as one. I've spent time working some of the chairmen's -- and hitting a branch here in Midtown and spending some time with folks that are actually making the engine work. And I think it's fair to say that we, at one point, we were calling the wealth and investment management business, the ballast, which was the right word because we wanted to convey durability. But I'd submit to you, Mike, and hopefully, you'll appreciate the spirit of which I say this, I think it's actually the engine. I think this will be the engine for further Morgan Stanley growth.

我們已經把一切都搞清楚了，自我指導的傳統諮詢管道和這個新的通路工作場所正在合而為一。我花了一些時間與一些董事長一起工作，並去了市中心的一個分支機構，並花了一些時間與那些真正使引擎運轉的人在一起。我認為可以公平地說，我們曾一度將財富和投資管理業務稱為“鎮流器”，這是正確的詞，因為我們希望傳達持久性。但我會向你屈服，麥克，希望你會欣賞我所說的精神，我認為這實際上是引擎。我認為這將成為摩根士丹利進一步成長的引擎。

If opportunities were to come before us in the years to come, of course, we could staple them on and do something inorganically. As James alluded to, perhaps that would be outside the U.S. where I've spent a whole bunch of time but in running the actual organic business as it currently stands, we are truly a group of one. And as you know, having spent time inside the knitting of MS, what we're most excited about, Mike, you as a student of corporate culture and these investment banks, I think what you'd be most excited about is just how well we all get along.

當然，如果未來幾年機會出現在我們面前，我們可以把它們釘在上面，然後無機地做一些事情。正如詹姆斯所提到的，也許那是在美國以外的地方，我在那裡花了很多時間，但在經營目前的實際有機業務時，我們確實是一個團隊。如你所知，在 MS 的編織中度過了一段時間，我們最興奮的是，麥克，你作為企業文化和這些投資銀行的學生，我認為你最興奮的是我們都相處得很好。

There is a 0 friction in the leadership ranks across infrastructure, across wealth and investment management and across the investment bank. So the beauty of where we are today, is that all of us as shareholders and custodians of the Morgan Stanley idea and the Morgan Stanley culture of a first-class business in a first-class way are very much focused on growing both pieces of the firm and as leading wealth and asset manager has a lot more room and will grow, as I said, to the $10 trillion of assets. And at the same time, I don't see any reason why we can't continue to pick up high-quality durable wallet inside the investment bank and generate operating leverage in that business too.

基礎設施、財富和投資管理以及投資銀行的領導層之間的摩擦為零。因此，我們今天所處的美妙之處在於，我們所有人作為摩根士丹利理念和以一流方式打造一流企業的摩根士丹利文化的股東和保管人，都非常專注於發展這兩個方面。作為領先的財富和資產管理公司，公司擁有更大的空間，正如我所說，資產將成長到10 兆美元。同時，我認為我們沒有任何理由不能繼續在投資銀行內部挑選優質耐用的錢包，並在該業務中產生營運槓桿。

That concludes our question-and-answer session for today. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. We thank you again for participating. You may now disconnect and have a great day.

我們今天的問答環節到此結束。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們再次感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接並度過愉快的一天。