摩根士丹利 (MS) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. On behalf of Morgan Stanley, I will begin the call with the following disclaimer. This call is being recorded. During today's presentation, we will refer to our earnings release and financial supplements, copies of which are available at morganstanley.com. Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially.

早上好。我將代表摩根士丹利在電話會議開始時發表以下免責聲明。此通話正在錄音。在今天的演示中，我們將參考我們的收益發布和財務補充資料，其副本可在 morganstanley.com 上獲取。今天的演示可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。

Please refer to our notices regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures that appear in the earnings release. This presentation may not be duplicated or reproduced without our consent. I will now turn the call over to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, James Gorman.

請參閱我們關於收益發布中出現的前瞻性陳述和非公認會計原則措施的通知。未經我們同意，不得複製或複製本演示文稿。我現在將把電話轉給董事長兼首席執行官詹姆斯·戈爾曼。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We started the second quarter with significant headwinds and uncertainties, and it's fair to say that we ended the quarter overall in a better place with a better tone. The headwinds reflect the ongoing market transition from a high inflation, low rate environment to a higher rate, lower inflation environment.

大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。我們在第二季度伊始就面臨著巨大的阻力和不確定性，可以公平地說，我們總體上以更好的方式結束了本季度。這些不利因素反映出市場正在從高通脹、低利率環境向高利率、低通脹環境轉變。

In addition, there were several other issues impacting the markets. April started on the heels of the first bank crisis since 2008, which had the risk of bleeding into the broader financial system. Prompt action by regulators in what turned out to be idiosyncratic stories of the failed banks combined with the strength and support from the large U.S. banks help to rebalance the system.

此外，還有其他幾個影響市場的問題。 4 月份緊接著 2008 年以來的第一次銀行危機爆發，這場危機有蔓延到更廣泛的金融體系的風險。監管機構對倒閉銀行的特殊故事採取迅速行動，再加上美國大型銀行的實力和支持，有助於重新平衡體系。

Second, we found our country moving headlong into a debt selling crisis. While our view was it was likely to be resolved, there is no doubt it created unnecessary uncertainty in the markets in April and May. Thirdly, after rapidly rising rates over 15 months of Fed reached a pause, if not a plateau, at its recent meeting.

其次，我們發現我們的國家一頭扎進了債務出售危機。雖然我們認為該問題很可能得到解決，但毫無疑問，這給四月和五月的市場帶來了不必要的不​​確定性。第三，在過去 15 個月的利率快速上升之後，美聯儲在最近的會議上即使沒有達到穩定水平，也陷入了停頓。

And while we may not be quite at the end of rate increases, I believe we are very, very close to it. Finally, strong rhetoric from government leaders from both the U.S. and China in recent weeks, is evident, but there's now been recent efforts to normalize relations and a constructive dialogue is surely welcomed. Seeing these 4 not insignificant macro concerns progress positively supported a more constructive tone in the markets, particularly evidenced in the last few weeks of the quarter.

雖然我們可能還沒有完全達到加息的終點，但我相信我們已經非常非常接近了。最後，最近幾周美國和中國政府領導人的強烈言論是顯而易見的，但最近雙方都在努力實現關係正常化，建設性對話肯定受到歡迎。看到這 4 個不容忽視的宏觀問題取得進展，積極支持了市場更具建設性的基調，特別是在本季度的最後幾週。

Beyond more macro issues, we at Morgan Stanley completed a significant part of the E*TRADE back office integration with the final part to be completed after Labor Day, and we're very pleased with how it's gone. And today, we announced new institutional initiatives with Japanese research and equity and in foreign exchange with our long-standing partner, MUFG, further evidence of how our businesses can work together over time to best serve our global clients.

除了更多的宏觀問題之外，摩根士丹利還完成了 E*TRADE 後台集成的重要部分，最後一部分將在勞動節後完成，我們對它的進展感到非常滿意。今天，我們與我們的長期合作夥伴三菱日聯金融集團 (MUFG) 宣布了與日本研究和股權以及外匯方面的新機構舉措，進一步證明了我們的企業如何能夠長期合作，為我們的全球客戶提供最佳服務。

And importantly, we received the most recent results of CCAR. We're pleased our performance under the stress test has improved for the fourth consecutive year, every year since the SCB was introduced. Given our strong results, we increased our dividend by $0.075, the same as we did last year. That brings our total annual dividend per share to $3.40 annually with a dividend yield of about 4% given the current stock price.

重要的是，我們收到了 CCAR 的最新結果。我們很高興我們在壓力測試下的表現連續第四年有所改善，自 SCB 推出以來每年都有所改善。鑑於我們強勁的業績，我們將股息增加了 0.075 美元，與去年相同。這使得我們的每股年度股息總額達到每年 3.40 美元，考慮到當前股價，股息收益率約為 4%。

As to the financial performance of the firm this quarter, certain key metrics were encouraging, Net new assets in Wealth Management grew by $90 billion and combined with inflows from Investment Management, we saw over $100 billion, bringing our year-to-date net new assets to approximately $200 billion in 6 months. Our year-to-date growth is well ahead of pace.

就公司本季度的財務業績而言，某些關鍵指標令人鼓舞，財富管理的淨新資產增長了 900 億美元，加上投資管理的流入，我們看到超過 1000 億美元，使我們今年迄今為止的淨新資產6個月內資產規模增至約2000億美元。我們今年迄今為止的增長遠遠領先於步伐。

And while obviously, any quarter can bounce around and that will happen, our consistent growth in net new assets in Wealth Management is evidence of our scale, and our expanded channels and the clients that we serve. Second, our institutional businesses navigated a choppy environment well. And altogether, the firm delivered net revenues of over $13 billion, up 2% from last year when conditions were very different. This translated into an ROTCE of 12%.

顯然，任何季度都可能出現反彈，這種情況將會發生，但我們財富管理淨新資產的持續增長證明了我們的規模、我們擴大的渠道和我們服務的客戶。其次，我們的機構業務很好地應對了動蕩的環境。該公司總共實現了超過 130 億美元的淨收入，比去年情況截然不同時增長了 2%。這轉化為 12% 的 ROTCE。

Finally, our CET1 ratio was 15.5%. While we knew this would significantly exceed our capital requirements, and it did, it reflects our desire to remain highly capitalized in the face of the new unfolding Basel III end game. It's too early to predict the rate of market improvement through the rest of 2023, but the more positive tone and activity seen later in the quarter across many parts of our business is promising.

最後，我們的CET1比率是15.5%。雖然我們知道這將大大超出我們的資本要求，而且確實如此，但這反映了我們在面對新的巴塞爾協議III最終遊戲時保持高度資本化的願望。現在預測 2023 年剩餘時間內的市場改善速度還為時過早，但本季度晚些時候我們業務的許多部分所看到的更加積極的基調和活動是有希望的。

Of course, how much it moves through the balance of the year remains unknown. That said, the fundamentals of our business model remain strong. Finally, a brief comment on succession. At the annual meeting in May, I made it clear I would transition out of the CEO role before next year's Annual Meeting.

當然，今年剩下的時間裡它的變化幅度仍然未知。儘管如此，我們商業模式的基礎依然強勁。最後，對繼承問題進行簡要評論。在五月份的年會上，我明確表示我將在明年年會之前卸任首席執行官的角色。

Succession planning should be intentional and managed just like strategic planning for the firm or any of our critical talent management processes. We are and have been dealing with a number of uncertainties, including, but not limited to, the CCAR results, business environment, Basel III upcoming end game proposals and certain other pending matters. I committed to the Board that I'll lead our response to those issues. And when I do transition out of the CEO role, I remain as Executive Chairman for a period of time. We are fortunate indeed to have 3 very strong internal candidates that the Board continues to evaluate along appropriate processes for their readiness to step up as the next CEO of Morgan Stanley.

繼任計劃應該是有意的和管理的，就像公司的戰略規劃或我們任何關鍵的人才管理流程一樣。我們正在並且一直在處理許多不確定性，包括但不限於 CCAR 結果、商業環境、巴塞爾 III 即將到來的最終提案以及某些其他懸而未決的事項。我向董事會承諾，我將領導我們對這些問題的回應。當我卸任首席執行官職務後，我仍將擔任執行董事長一段時間。我們確實很幸運，擁有 3 位非常強大的內部候選人，董事會將繼續按照適當的流程對他們進行評估，以了解他們是否準備好擔任摩根士丹利的下一任首席執行官。

I'll now turn the call over to Sharon to discuss the quarter in greater detail, and then together, we'll take your questions. Thank you.

我現在將把電話轉給莎倫，更詳細地討論該季度，然後我們將一起回答您的問題。謝謝。

Thank you, and good morning. The firm produced revenues of $13.5 billion. Our EPS was $1.24, and our ROTCE was 12.1%. Reported results include severance charges of approximately $300 million. This reduced EPS by $0.14 and ROTCE by about 140 basis points. As James discussed, sentiment and activity improved towards the end of the quarter, evidenced by green shoots that emerged across our businesses in Institutional Securities, client engagement progressively picked up.

謝謝你，早上好。該公司的收入為 135 億美元。我們的 EPS 為 1.24 美元，ROTCE 為 12.1%。報告結果包括約 3 億美元的遣散費。這使得 EPS 減少了 0.14 美元，ROTCE 減少了約 140 個基點。正如詹姆斯所討論的那樣，情緒和活動在本季度末有所改善，我們的機構證券業務出現了新芽，客戶參與度逐漸提高。

And in Wealth Management, we witnessed a moderation of sweep outflows as well as the stabilization of retail investments into cash and cash equivalents. The firm's year-to-date efficiency ratio was 75%. In addition to severance, expenses for the quarter included $99 million of costs associated with the integrations of E*TRADE and Eaton Vance, approximately 75% of which relates to E*TRADE.

在財富管理領域，我們見證了資金外流的放緩以及現金和現金等價物零售投資的穩定。該公司年初至今的效率率為 75%。除遣散費外，本季度的費用還包括與 E*TRADE 和 Eaton Vance 整合相關的 9900 萬美元成本，其中約 75% 與 E*TRADE 有關。

Together, severance and this year's integration represent an impact of about 175 basis points to the year-to-date efficiency ratio. For the balance of the year, our expectations for total integration expenses are broadly in line with our prior guidance, with approximately $150 million remaining. Looking towards the back half of 2023, we continue to balance investments with the operating environment.

遣散費和今年的整合對年初至今的效率比率產生了約 175 個基點的影響。對於今年剩餘時間，我們對總整合費用的預期與我們之前的指導基本一致，剩餘約 1.5 億美元。展望2023年下半年，我們將繼續平衡投資與經營環境。

Now to the businesses. Institutional Securities revenues of $5.7 billion declined 8% versus last year. With overall client activity -- while overall client activity was lower compared to the prior period, results improved as the quarter progressed, alongside better market conditions. Investment banking revenues were flat compared to a year ago.

現在到企業。機構證券收入為 57 億美元，比去年下降 8%。就整體客戶活動而言，雖然整體客戶活動較上一時期有所下降，但隨著本季度的進展以及市場狀況的改善，業績有所改善。投資銀行業務收入與一年前持平。

Although advisory remained under pressure, a pickup in underwriting supported results. Advisory revenues of $455 million reflected lower completed M&A volumes. Equity underwriting revenues were $225 million. While IPO activity remained muted, results were supported by follow-on and convertibles, encouraging signs that equity and equity-linked markets were opened at times for regular weight issuance.

儘管諮詢仍面臨壓力，但承保業務的回升支撐了業績。諮詢收入為 4.55 億美元，反映了已完成併購數量的減少。股票承銷收入為 2.25 億美元。儘管首次公開募股活動依然低迷，但後續股票和可轉換債券為業績提供了支撐，令人鼓舞的跡象表明股票和股票相關市場有時會開放定期發行。

Fixed income underwriting revenues were $395 million, up year-over-year, driven mostly by investment-grade bond issuance, where corporates and financials took advantage of constructive markets in May and June, respectively. Investment-grade markets remain resilient against an uncertain backdrop.

固定收益承銷收入為 3.95 億美元，同比增長，主要受到投資級債券發行的推動，其中企業和金融機構分別利用了 5 月和 6 月的建設性市場。在不確定的背景下，投資級市場仍保持彈性。

Across investment banking, client activity trended positively as the quarter progressed. The preannounced M&A backlog grew consistently throughout the quarter with a potential plateau in rates and lower implied volatility, client dialogue is currently active. We continue to invest in the franchise and have made selective senior hires to enhance our footprint to best position for the opportunity.

隨著本季度的進展，整個投資銀行業務的客戶活動呈積極趨勢。預先宣布的併購積壓在整個季度持續增長，利率可能趨於穩定，隱含波動性較低，客戶對話目前很活躍。我們繼續投資於特許經營權，並選擇性地聘用高級人員，以擴大我們的足跡，以抓住機會的最佳位置。

While we are cognizant of the typical summer slowdown and it is hard to know whether positive trends will continue for the near term, current conditions remain encouraging, certainly for the medium-term outlook and especially for 2024. Equity revenues were $2.5 billion, down 14% compared to strong results in the previous second quarter due to lower activity and lower market volatility.

雖然我們認識到典型的夏季經濟放緩，並且很難知道短期內是否會持續積極趨勢，但目前的情況仍然令人鼓舞，尤其是對於中期前景，尤其是 2024 年。股票收入為 25 億美元，下降 14由於活動減少和市場波動性降低，與上一第二季度的強勁業績相比，百分比下降。

Prime Brokerage revenues were solid, supported by increasing average client balances consistent with rising market levels. Cash and derivatives declined versus last year on lower global volumes and lower market volatility. Fixed income revenues of $1.7 billion decreased compared to last year's elevated results. Solid performance reflects tempered client activity and prudent risk management.

大宗經紀業務收入穩健，這得益於平均客戶餘額隨著市場水平的上升而增加。由於全球交易量下降和市場波動性降低，現金和衍生品較去年有所下降。與去年較高的業績相比，固定收益收入減少了 17 億美元。穩健的業績反映了客戶活動的緩和和審慎的風險管理。

However, improved market conditions in June shifted client sentiment and supported the quarter's overall results. Macro revenues were down year-over-year, attributed to the declines in foreign exchange and a challenging environment and reduced activity, partially offset by the pickup in client engagement following the resolution of the debt ceiling debate and performance in rates.

然而，六月份市場狀況的改善改變了客戶情緒並支撐了該季度的整體業績。宏觀收入同比下降，原因是外匯下跌、充滿挑戰的環境和活動減少，但部分被債務上限爭論解決後客戶參與度的上升和利率表現所抵消。

Micro results declined versus last year, predominantly on the back of lower client activity. Results in commodities were down significantly compared to the robust prior year, which benefited from volatile energy markets. Other revenues of $315 million improved versus last year, largely driven by lower mark-to-market losses net of hedges and higher net interest income and fees on corporate loans held for sale.

微觀業績較去年有所下降，主要是由於客戶活動減少。與上一年的強勁表現相比，大宗商品的業績大幅下降，這得益於能源市場的波動。與去年相比，其他收入有所改善，達到 3.15 億美元，這主要是由於扣除對沖後的按市值計算的損失減少以及淨利息收入和待售企業貸款費用增加所致。

Turning to ISG lending and provisions. Our allowance for credit losses on ISG loans and lending commitments increased to $1.4 billion. In the quarter, ISG provisions were $97 million. The increase was driven by continued negative outlook for commercial real estate and modest portfolio growth. Net charge-offs were $30 million and were substantially old from a handful of specific loans from our corporate lending portfolio.

轉向 ISG 貸款和準備金。我們對 ISG 貸款和貸款承諾的信用損失準備金增加至 14 億美元。本季度，ISG 撥備金額為 9700 萬美元。這一增長是由商業房地產持續負面前景和投資組合溫和增長推動的。淨沖銷額為 3000 萬美元，而且是我們企業貸款組合中少數特定貸款的舊賬。

Turning to Wealth Management. Revenues were $6.7 billion, a record. Excluding the impact of DCP, revenues were $6.6 billion and increased 5%, supported by higher net interest income. Results demonstrate the strength of the business model and our ability to continue to serve clients throughout different market environments.

轉向財富管理。收入達到 67 億美元，創歷史新高。排除 DCP 的影響，在淨利息收入增加的支撐下，收入為 66 億美元，增長 5%。結果證明了業務模式的優勢以及我們在不同市場環境中繼續為客戶提供服務的能力。

Pretax profit was $1.7 billion, with a PBT margin of 25.2%. Severance charges were $78 million and integration-related expenses were $75 million. Taken together and with the impact of DCP, these 3 factors were a drag in the margin of approximately 300 basis points. Despite the challenging market backdrop, the business model continued to deliver against our core objectives.

稅前利潤為 17 億美元，稅前利潤率為 25.2%。遣散費為 7,800 萬美元，與整合相關的費用為 7,500 萬美元。綜合考慮，加上 DCP 的影響，這 3 個因素拖累了利潤約 300 個基點。儘管市場背景充滿挑戰，但業務模式繼續實現我們的核心目標。

Most notably, Wealth Management delivered $90 billion of net new assets, demonstrating our platform's ability to grow in various market environments. Net new assets were driven by our adviser-led channel, existing client consolidation and net recruiting were strong and offset seasonal tax-related outflows in April.

最值得注意的是，財富管理交付了 900 億美元的淨新資產，展示了我們的平台在各種市場環境中增長的能力。淨新資產是由我們顧問主導的渠道推動的，現有客戶整合和淨招聘強勁，抵消了 4 月份季節性稅收相關的流出。

Our early investments in technology including data and AI are providing advisers with tools to service current clients better and more efficiently prospect new business, including from our workplace channel. Also significant, as James mentioned, we are pleased to share that we've accomplished an integral part of E*TRADE's back-office integration, converting over 3 million E*TRADE accounts to Morgan Stanley's unified platform.

我們對數據和人工智能等技術的早期投資為顧問提供了工具，以便更好、更有效地為現有客戶提供服務，並開拓新業務，包括通過我們的工作場所渠道。同樣重要的是，正如 James 提到的，我們很高興地告訴大家，我們已經完成了 E*TRADE 後台集成的一個組成部分，將超過 300 萬個 E*TRADE 賬戶轉換到摩根士丹利的統一平台。

We did this with virtually no client disruption, which has always been a critical priority. We expect to finish our integration efforts on time in the second half of this year. Moving to our business metrics in the second quarter. Performance was solid down the line in light of the environment.

我們做到了這一點，幾乎沒有對客戶造成乾擾，這一直是一個至關重要的優先事項。我們預計將在今年下半年按時完成整合工作。轉向我們第二季度的業務指標。考慮到環境，性能一直很穩定。

Asset Management revenues were $3.5 billion, down 2% versus last year's second quarter, primarily reflecting lower market levels. Transactional revenues were $869 million. Excluding the impact of DCP, revenues declined 2% year-over-year, reflective of lower client activity for most of the quarter. Fee-based flows were $22.7 billion. Bank lending balances grew by $1.1 billion, driven by mortgages, offsetting paydowns in securities-based lending.

資產管理收入為 35 億美元，比去年第二季度下降 2%，主要反映了市場水平的下降。交易收入為 8.69 億美元。排除 DCP 的影響，收入同比下降 2%，反映出本季度大部分時間客戶活動減少。收費流量為 227 億美元。在抵押貸款的推動下，銀行貸款餘額增長了 11 億美元，抵消了證券貸款的還款額。

Total deposits of $343 billion were up slightly quarter-over-quarter. Sweep outflows moderated during May and June compared to April, which included seasonal tax outflows. The recent month's trends are encouraging, but it remains too early to be declarative. Net interest income of $2.2 billion was virtually flat versus the prior quarter. The impact of lower sweep balances and higher funding costs were offset by higher rates.

存款總額為 3,430 億美元，環比小幅增長。與 4 月份相比，五月和六月的轉移資金流出有所放緩，其中包括季節性稅收流出。最近一個月的趨勢令人鼓舞，但現在下結論還為時過早。淨利息收入為 22 億美元，與上一季度基本持平。較低的掃描餘額和較高的融資成本的影響被較高的利率所抵消。

Looking towards the rest of the year, we do not expect NII to expand. Results will be a function of our deposit mix and the trajectory of various rates. Similar to the institutional business, retail sentiment improved as the quarter progressed. For the first time since the beginning of the year, June saw positive monthly flows into equity markets from adviser-led sweep balances.

展望今年剩餘時間，我們預計NII不會擴大。結果將取決於我們的存款組合和各種利率的軌跡。與機構業務類似，隨著本季度的進展，零售情緒有所改善。自今年年初以來，6 月份首次出現由顧問主導的清掃餘額每月正向股市流入的情況。

We are encouraged by this more recent activity and remain well positioned to support ongoing asset growth and our clients through market cycles. Turning to Investment Management. Revenues of $1.3 billion declined 9% from the prior second quarter. primarily reflecting lower performance-based income and the cumulative impact of lower asset levels over the course of the year, commensurate with the market environment.

我們對最近的這一活動感到鼓舞，並在整個市場週期中保持良好的地位，以支持持續的資產增長和我們的客戶。轉向投資管理。第二季度收入為 13 億美元，較上一季度下降 9%。主要反映了業績收入下降以及年內資產水平下降的累積影響，與市場環境相適應。

Asset Management and related fees were $1.3 billion, declining 3% year-over-year, reflecting the stability and diversification of our client franchise. Performance-based income and other revenues declined year-over-year due to the challenging investing environment in certain asset classes and markets, such as real estate and Asia private equity. Solid performance in other areas of our private alternative strategies acted as a partial offset, reflecting the diversity of our platform and our capital-light client-driven alternative franchise.

資產管理及相關費用為 13 億美元，同比下降 3%，反映了我們客戶業務的穩定性和多元化。由於房地產和亞洲私募股權等某些資產類別和市場的投資環境充滿挑戰，基於業績的收入和其他收入同比下降。我們的私人另類策略其他領域的穩健表現起到了部分抵消作用，反映了我們平台的多樣性和我們的輕資本客戶驅動的另類特許經營權。

Total AUM increased $1.4 trillion. Our integration with Eaton Vance continues to progress well. Integration-related expenses were $24 million in the quarter. Long-term net flows were positive. Inflows were driven by ongoing demand in alternatives and solutions, which offset outflows in equities and fixed income. Within alternatives and solutions, Parametric customized portfolios, private credit and private equity continue -- remain consistent sources of net inflows, underscoring the benefits of our diverse platform.

總資產管理規模增加 1.4 萬億美元。我們與伊頓萬斯的整合繼續順利推進。本季度與整合相關的費用為 2400 萬美元。長期淨流量為正。資金流入是由替代品和解決方案的持續需求推動的，這抵消了股票和固定收益的流出。在替代方案和解決方案中，參數化定制投資組合、私人信貸和私募股權繼續保持淨流入的一致來源，凸顯了我們多元化平台的優勢。

Additionally, this quarter, alternatives and solutions benefited from a significant inflow related to a portfolio solutions mandate. Liquidity and overlay services had an inflows of $9.7 billion, supported by ongoing demand for money market funds. We continue to be very well positioned in secular growth areas, such as customization in private markets, across geographies and with our global client base.

此外，本季度，替代方案和解決方案受益於與投資組合解決方案授權相關的大量資金流入。在貨幣市場基金持續需求的支撐下，流動性和覆蓋服務流入 97 億美元。我們在長期增長領域繼續處於有利地位，例如私人市場、跨地域和全球客戶群的定制。

Turning to the balance sheet. Total spot assets decreased $35 billion from the prior quarter to $1.2 trillion. Our standardized CET run ratio was 15.5%, up approximately 40 basis points versus the prior quarter. Standardized RWAs declined about $9 billion from the prior quarter to $450 billion due to market conditions and continued prudent resource management.

轉向資產負債表。現貨資產總額較上一季度減少 350 億美元，至 1.2 萬億美元。我們的標準化 CET 運行率為 15.5%，比上一季度上升約 40 個基點。由於市場狀況和持續審慎的資源管理，標準化 RWA 較上一季度下降約 90 億美元，至 4500 億美元。

Recent stress test results reaffirmed our strong capital position and our durable business model. We announced a quarterly dividend increase of $0.075 and renewed our $20 billion multiyear repurchase authorization. Our tax rate was 21% for the quarter, reflecting our global mix of earnings. While we outperformed our tax guidance in the first half, we expect a tax rate of approximately 23% in the second half of this year, consistent with our initial guidance.

最近的壓力測試結果再次證實了我們強大的資本狀況和持久的商業模式。我們宣布季度股息增加 0.075 美元，並更新了 200 億美元的多年期回購授權。本季度我們的稅率為 21%，反映了我們的全球收益組合。雖然我們上半年的表現超出了稅收指導，但我們預計今年下半年的稅率約為 23%，與我們的初步指導一致。

Although we cannot be sure how the backdrop will play out for the rest of 2023, our priority of the management team is to diligently address what we can control given the market realities. Should stable and higher asset levels prevail, Wealth and Investment Management are poised to benefit, particularly as we continue to attract net new assets, a testament to our asset growth strategy.

儘管我們無法確定 2023 年剩餘時間的背景將如何發展，但我們管理團隊的首要任務是根據市場現實，努力解決我們可以控制的問題。如果資產水平保持穩定和更高，財富和投資管理業務將受益，特別是當我們繼續吸引淨新資產時，這證明了我們的資產增長戰略。

Within institutional securities, while advisory will lag the financing market, the backlog is building and underwriting trends are positive. Open and functioning markets remain key to supporting client conviction and activity levels. Most critically, our business continues to advance our clear and consistent firm strategy driving long-term growth while remaining well catalyzed. With that, we will now open the line up to questions.

在機構證券中，雖然諮詢將落後於融資市場，但積壓的訂單正在增加，承銷趨勢也呈積極趨勢。開放和運作的市場仍然是支持客戶信念和活動水平的關鍵。最重要的是，我們的業務繼續推進我們清晰一致的公司戰略，推動長期增長，同時保持良好的催化作用。現在，我們將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions). We'll take our first question from Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）。我們將回答美國銀行易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉 (Ebrahim Poonawala) 提出的第一個問題。

I guess maybe first question, James, for you. Thanks for the update on the succession. As we think about what you built in terms of the franchise. And I think you talked about the unfolding Basel end game rules that are expected over the next week or 2, from a shareholder perspective, do you see these rules as game-changing where investors will have to reevaluate the value proposition of Morgan Stanley as a franchise?

我想也許第一個問題是問你的，詹姆斯。感謝您更新有關繼承的信息。當我們思考你在特許經營方面所建立的東西時。我認為您談到了預計將在未來一周或兩週內展開的巴塞爾最終遊戲規則，從股東的角度來看，您是否認為這些規則會改變遊戲規則，投資者將不得不重新評估摩根士丹利作為特許經營權？

And you, as a management team, would have to review strategic targets that you've laid out? Give us a sense. And I know plenty of unknowns. But I think the question we get from shareholders is the comfort around the ability of the firm to manage through what could be pretty radical changes.

作為管理團隊，您是否必須審查您制定的戰略目標？給我們一個感覺。我知道很多未知的事情。但我認為我們從股東那裡得到的問題是對公司管理可能相當徹底的變革的能力的信心。

Well, it's an important question. And you're right, I have made comments on it. Let's sort of set the table of where we are right now. We've had a lot of speculation based off of what the Basel III end game looks like. By the way, I'm not sure it's actually being implemented fully in Europe, just to say. I think the U.S. banks actually have more capital, but putting that net aside, we did get the speech from the body's Chair.

嗯，這是一個重要的問題。你是對的，我已經對此發表了評論。讓我們來設置一下我們現在所處的位置。我們根據巴塞爾協議 III 的最終結果進行了很多猜測。順便說一句，我不確定它是否真的在歐洲得到全面實施，只是說。我認為美國銀行實際上擁有更多資本，但撇開淨資本不談，我們確實得到了該機構主席的講話。

I think it's important to look at the title of that speech, which was holistic capital review. So it's taking into account all of the CCAR, stress tests, SCB buffers and the like of this stuff is implemented. Secondly, we haven't seen the actual rules. I mean, I guess there will be a proposal coming out, as you said, in a couple of weeks.

我認為看一下演講的標題很重要，它是整體資本審查。因此，它考慮到了所有 CCAR、壓力測試、SCB 緩衝區等的實施。其次，我們還沒有看到實際的規則。我的意思是，我想正如您所說，幾週後將會有一項提案出台。

There will be an extensive comment period. There is clearly very different views as to the need for the U.S. banking system to accrete more capital. In fact, if you look at the test of the last few years, the -- what happened with the regional banks, what -- Silicon Valley First Republic Signature, what happened during COVID, what's happened during this period of high inflation, what's happened with the biggest rate increase we've had in 40 years, put all that together, the U.S. large banks actually did really well.

將有一個廣泛的評論期。對於美國銀行體係是否需要積累更多資本，顯然存在截然不同的觀點。事實上，如果你看看過去幾年的測試，地區銀行發生了什麼，矽谷第一共和簽名，新冠疫情期間發生了什麼，高通脹時期發生了什麼，發生了什麼加上我們 40 年來最大的加息，把所有這些加在一起，美國大型銀行實際上表現得非常好。

In fact, if not all of them, certainly for Morgan Stanley, our capital position improved 4 years in a row under CCAR. So it's kind of hard for me to sit here and say that we won't be commenting forcefully that we are very well capitalized. But there will be an extensive comment period. I suspect what comes out of that will not be the same as what starts.

事實上，即使不是全部，對於摩根士丹利來說，我們的資本狀況在 CCAR 管理下連續 4 年有所改善。因此，我很難坐在這裡說我們不會強力評論我們資本充足。但將會有一個廣泛的評論期。我懷疑由此產生的結果將與開始時有所不同。

I think in the sausage making, there will be a lot of evaluation. Clearly, the intent is not to harm the U.S. banking system, which is the backbone of the economy. It's to strengthen us. Then there will be a long transition period. So I just happen to be reading the speech from the Vice Chair in the last couple of days, and he had a paragraph in there anticipating this question.

我想在香腸製作過程中，會有很多評價。顯然，其意圖並不是要損害作為經濟支柱的美國銀行體系。是為了讓我們堅強起來。那麼接下來將會有一個漫長的過渡期。所以我這幾天正好看到副主席的講話，他有一段話是預見到這個問題的。

I thought I'd read you, any proposed changes would go through the standard notice and comment rule-making process, allowing for all interested parties appropriate time. Any final changes to capital requirements would occur with appropriate transition times, and he goes on again later in his speech to point out, it could be -- it will not be fully effective for some years.

我想我已經讀懂了您的意思，任何提議的更改都將通過標准通知和評論規則制定流程，為所有感興趣的各方留出適當的時間。對資本要求的任何最終改變都將在適當的過渡時間內發生，他在演講稍後再次指出，這可能在幾年內不會完全有效。

So here we are in 2023. I don't think this is going to happen in any meaningful way before the end of 2026. I think what comes out a year from now after comment period will be very different from what goes in. And just take my personal pet peeve in it, which is applying a standardized RWA hit on operating risk as the various regulators trying to figure out what the right way to assess operating risk capital is.

所以我們已經到了 2023 年了。我認為在 2026 年底之前這不會以任何有意義的方式發生。我認為從現在起一年後徵求意見期後的結果將與實際情況有很大不同。考慮到我個人最討厭的一點，即在各個監管機構試圖找出評估操作風險資本的正確方法時，對操作風險應用標準化的 RWA。

And to put a [standardized fee] is fine, but to do it based on fee income, which is the current European proposal, seems to me to be nuts. I mean we're not -- you don't build fee-based businesses to create operating risk. You build them to create stability. So that's a point we've made very clear at the regulators, and I think they're taking it under consideration.

收取[標準化費用]是可以的，但根據歐洲目前的提議，根據費用收入來收取費用，在我看來是瘋狂的。我的意思是我們不是——你不會建立收費業務來創造運營風險。您構建它們是為了創造穩定性。因此，我們已經向監管機構明確表達了這一點，我認為他們正在考慮這一點。

So long story short, yes, it's the final trust. It's ironic, I don't believe all the European banks are complying with their own rules. We have a very healthy robust capital system here that's been tested 12 years in a row. Morgan Stanley has done well. And there is no chance there will be a major strategic shift for Morgan Sany as a result of any of this, is my conclusion.

長話短說，是的，這是最後的信任。具有諷刺意味的是，我不相信所有歐洲銀行都遵守自己的規則。我們這裡有一個非常健康、穩健的資本體系，已經連續 12 年經受考驗。摩根士丹利做得很好。我的結論是，摩根三一重工不可能因此而發生重大戰略轉變。

That is helpful and nuts sounds about right. One quick question, Sharon, for you. You mentioned NII not seen as expanding from here. I guess, is implied in the expectation that NII should stabilize in the back half, give or take, within a few percentage points?

這很有幫助，而且聽起來很正確。莎倫，問你一個簡單的問題。您提到 NII 不被認為是從這裡開始擴展的。我想，是否隱含著對NII應該在後半段穩定在幾個百分點之內的預期？

It will depend really -- Ebrahim, thanks for the question. It really depends on the deposit mix. And so as I mentioned, there were encouraging signs in terms of that mix as we think about the back half of the quarter. But that liability mix, what's going on with sweeps will be the primary driver when you think about NII in the near term.

這實際上取決於——易卜拉欣，謝謝你的提問。這實際上取決於存款組合。正如我所提到的，當我們考慮本季度後半段時，這種組合出現了令人鼓舞的跡象。但是，當你在短期內考慮 NII 時，這種責任組合、掃蕩的情況將成為主要驅動因素。

We'll move to our next question from Devin Ryan with JMP Securities.

我們將轉向 JMP 證券的 Devin Ryan 提出的下一個問題。

I just want to touch on the institutional securities. And you had ultimately, I think, a pretty good quarter relative to the backdrop. And you mentioned that engagement really accelerated kind of towards to the back half of the quarter. So I'm assuming kind of on the other side of the debt feeling debate, things started to normalize a little bit.

我只想談談機構證券。我認為，相對於背景而言，你最終度過了一個相當不錯的季度。您提到，到本季度後半段，參與度確實有所加快。因此，我假設在債務感覺辯論的另一邊，事情開始稍微正常化。

So just want to talk about some of the puts and takes and whether maybe the second quarter results, which are still the softest results, I think, since 2019 second quarter. This is kind of a more normal outcome? Or if you actually think that what you saw kind of in that recovery in the back half of the quarter is normalization? And so therefore, we could actually bounce back from the outcome of the second quarter?

因此，我只想談談一些看跌期權和看跌期權，以及是否可能是第二季度的業績，我認為，這仍然是自 2019 年第二季度以來最疲軟的業績。這是一種更正常的結果嗎？或者，如果您實際上認為本季度後半段的複蘇是正常化？因此，我們實際上可以從第二季度的結果中反彈嗎？

Sure. Let's take all of ISG first. So when we think about what we've discussed a lot at length really about normal, post COVID has been for the overall ISG wallet to land between 2019 and 2020. Our view there broadly has not changed. In terms of where we expect ourselves to be, we've laid out a pretty clear sort of market share guidelines in terms of where we are from a wallet perspective.

當然。我們先來看看ISG的全部內容。因此，當我們思考我們已經詳細討論過的關於正常情況的內容時，新冠疫情之後，整個 ISG 錢包將在 2019 年至 2020 年之間落地。我們的觀點總體上沒有改變。就我們對自己的期望而言，我們從錢包的角度出發，制定了相當清晰的市場份額指南。

When you look specifically, you talked about fixed income, we've moved from 6% wallet share to 10% wallet share. So I think the dramatic change that we've made in that business has really been around a client-centric franchise and making sure that we're there and able -- to be able to service our client base.

當你具體看時，你談到了固定收益，我們已經從 6% 的錢包份額變成了 10% 的錢包份額。因此，我認為我們在該業務中所做的巨大改變實際上是圍繞以客戶為中心的特許經營權，並確保我們能夠為我們的客戶群提供服務。

What we talked about, as you highlight, is that there was less client activity for us this second quarter compared to last year's second quarter. But interestingly, as you mentioned, and you're right, we saw a dramatic change in that activity level, specifically in fixed income right after the debt ceiling debate. So I think what we're looking to do is capture our fair share of the wallet. And that overall wallet in terms of normalization, we think will likely land between 2019 and 2020.

正如您所強調的，我們所討論的是，與去年第二季度相比，我們第二季度的客戶活動減少了。但有趣的是，正如您所提到的，您是對的，我們看到該活動水平發生了巨大變化，特別是在債務上限辯論之後的固定收益方面。所以我認為我們要做的就是奪取我們的錢包的公平份額。我們認為，就正常化而言，整體錢包可能會在 2019 年至 2020 年之間實現。

Okay. Great color there. And then just in terms of just this green shoot and kind of normalization theme, we are seeing in the equity capital markets, debt capital markets, some normalization. M&A has still been pretty lackluster. And so just curious whether you just feel like maybe that's more on a lag basis as capital markets recover, then M&A recovery would come next? Or is there something else kind of idiosyncratic to that market that may hold back results in that business?

好的。那裡的顏色很棒。然後就這種萌芽和正常化主題而言，我們在股權資本市場、債務資本市場中看到了一些正常化。併購仍然相當乏善可陳。因此，您是否只是覺得，隨著資本市場的複蘇，這可能會更加滯後，然後併購復甦將會到來？或者該市場是否還有其他一些特殊因素可能會阻礙該業務的業績？

Yes. Remember that, of course, advisory is always going to be lagged just because of the announcement. So we're digesting the fact that we had a very muted or a dearth of announcements if we look back 6, 9 months. If we think about the last month of the quarter, we began to see more announcements. And we're seeing that really in sector-specific that have a strategic dialogue around them.

是的。當然，請記住，諮詢總是會因為公告而滯後。因此，如果我們回顧 6、9 個月，我們正在消化這樣一個事實：我們的公告非常低調或缺乏。如果我們考慮一下本季度的最後一個月，我們開始看到更多的公告。我們確實在特定部門中看到了圍繞它們進行戰略對話的情況。

So be that financials where you might see industry consolidation, energy where you're seeing transitional discussions and reasons to actually have strategic dialogue. So what gives us confidence is that you're seeing a broadening out of those strategic dialogues. Our backlog is building, and we're seeing it across various sectors we're having both backlog and discussions.

因此，在金融方面，您可能會看到行業整合，在能源方面，您會看到過渡性討論以及實際進行戰略對話的原因。因此，讓我們充滿信心的是，你們看到這些戰略對話的範圍不斷擴大。我們的積壓工作正在增加，我們在各個部門都看到了這種情況，我們既有積壓工作，也有討論。

But it is fair to say that advisory will likely lag simply because you are dealing with a lagged announcement pipeline from the last 6 to 9 months.

但可以公平地說，諮詢可能會滯後，僅僅是因為您正在處理過去 6 到 9 個月的滯後公告渠道。

We'll move to our next question from Glenn Schorr with Evercore ISI Group.

我們將轉向 Evercore ISI Group 的 Glenn Schorr 提出的下一個問題。

So I want to drill down a little bit more on the $90 billion. I know it can be lumpy, but I didn't think it was (inaudible) workplace produced. But I wonder if you could drill down a little bit on what happened to work so well this quarter and this first half of the year.

所以我想對這 900 億美元進行更深入的研究。我知道它可能是凹凸不平的，但我不認為它是（聽不清）工作場所生產的。但我想知道您是否可以深入了解一下本季度和今年上半年發生的如此順利的事情。

I mean it bodes well for your doubling of pretax margin -- I'm sorry, doubling of pretax income for wealth. But just curious on what's contributing to the good lumpiness lately. Because you're obviously, well ahead of your $1 trillion every 3-year pace.

我的意思是，這預示著稅前利潤翻倍——對不起，財富稅前收入翻倍。但只是好奇最近是什麼導致了良好的塊狀。因為你顯然遠遠領先於每 3 年 1 萬億美元的步伐。

Thank you so much, Glenn, for the question. And yes, I think referencing Andy's speech that he gave for those of you who may not be aware, is helpful because it is an asset-led strategy when we think about where we see expansion in that business going forward. This particular quarter, historically, over the long term, we've generally said no one channel is contributing to over 25% of NNA.

非常感謝格倫提出的問題。是的，我認為參考安迪為那些可能不知道的人所做的演講是有幫助的，因為當我們考慮該業務未來的擴張時，這是一種資產主導的戰略。從歷史上看，從長期來看，這個特定季度我們通常認為沒有一個渠道對 NNA 的貢獻超過 25%。

Interestingly, this quarter, we did see the adviser-led channel was a big proponent. And more than that, it was what was a big production part of the funnel was the assets held away from existing clients. That's been a strategy that we've been talking about back 2015 through 2018 or so. And we put out a number of tools the modern well tool kit, et cetera, to give advisers more time to begin to not only prospect new clients, but also really offer their existing clients better advice.

有趣的是，本季度，我們確實看到顧問主導的渠道是一個大力支持者。更重要的是，漏斗中的一個重要生產部分是從現有客戶手中保留的資產。這是我們從 2015 年到 2018 年左右一直在討論的戰略。我們推出了許多工具，例如現代油井工具包等，讓顧問有更多的時間不僅可以開始尋找新客戶，還可以真正為現有客戶提供更好的建議。

And so that's where I think you're beginning to see a lot of that work in terms of aggregating assets held away, and we continue to believe that, that's a real opportunity for us to grow our asset base.

因此，我認為您開始看到在聚合資產方面的大量工作被擱置，我們仍然相信，這對我們來說是擴大資產基礎的真正機會。

I just want to add on this a little bit because it's obviously been a focus of mine for many decades. The run rate, Glenn, as you know, for the 3 years before this was $1 trillion. So we're running about $330-ish billion a year. This year run rate, if you extend it would obviously be higher than that, it would be around $400 billion, but I think you're right.

我只想補充一點，因為這顯然是我幾十年來關注的焦點。格倫，正如你所知，在此之前的 3 年裡，運轉率是 1 萬億美元。所以我們每年的運營費用約為 3300 億美元。今年的運行率，如果延長的話，顯然會更高，大約是 4000 億美元，但我認為你是對的。

It's going to be lumpy. I mean you're going to have a quarter in here somewhere that's a $50 billion quarter, and I wouldn't get too excited about that. And just as I don't get too excited, we're ahead of the run rate. What I really care about, what I'm really excited about is it's a real thing. This is not just something that's going to stop.

它會變得凹凸不平。我的意思是，這裡將有一個季度價值 500 億美元，我不會對此感到太興奮。就在我不太興奮的時候，我們已經領先於運行速度了。我真正關心、真正興奮的是它是真實的。這不僅僅是要停止的事情。

We've got a lot of wealthy clients, Just the dividends, the interest they get on their accounts, the money they're bringing in, the migration from the workplace, the migration from the E*TRADE accounts, it's the real deal. And I know we put out this $10 trillion number, which I think is -- I think this is going to happen. And at a 5% increase in the value annually on the portfolio with a $1 trillion every 3 years, it happens in a bit over 5 years.

我們有很多富有的客戶，只是股息、他們從賬戶上獲得的利息、他們帶來的錢、從工作場所遷移、從 E*TRADE 賬戶遷移，這都是實實在在的交易。我知道我們公佈了這個 10 萬億美元的數字，我認為這將會發生。如果投資組合的價值每 3 年增加 1 萬億美元，則每年增加 5%，這需要 5 年多一點的時間。

And it's just a pretty much unstoppable force, but there will be lumpiness in it. I'm sure of that. I don't know when, but they will be lumpy. This happened to be a great one. And I'm excited about it. I think we're heading to -- we're clearly heading to $10 trillion, which is at 50 basis points, $50 billion in revenue. And if you do the math compounding, and I know people are going to call me crazy, and I know it's the end of my tenure, so I get to do this kind of stuff. But if you do 5% over 14 years, you end up at $20 trillion, which is a $100 billion revenue business. Well, that seems like a long way out, but I started this job 14 years ago, and we had much, much fewer than the $6.3 trillion we have today. So it's possible.

這只是一種幾乎不可阻擋的力量，但其中會存在一些障礙。我確信這一點。我不知道什麼時候，但它們會結塊。這碰巧是一件偉大的事情。我對此感到很興奮。我認為我們正在走向——我們顯然正在走向 10 萬億美元，按 50 個基點計算，收入將達到 500 億美元。如果你進行數學複利，我知道人們會說我瘋了，而且我知道這是我任期的結束，所以我開始做這種事情。但如果你在 14 年內做到 5%，你最終會達到 20 萬億美元，這是一個 1000 億美元收入的業務。嗯，這似乎是一個很遙遠的事情，但我 14 年前開始這項工作，我們的資金比今天的 6.3 萬億美元少得多。所以這是可能的。

Wow. Maybe just one quick, Sharon. You talked about sweeps, and it's too early to tell if we've settled in. I'm curious if you have any stats you can share on what percentage of FAs and/or what percentage of clients have accounted for most of the moving? I'm not sure what's the [root] for here, but curious on how widespread across the ethane client base the shifts have been or concentrated.

哇。也許只是快一點，莎倫。你談到了掃蕩，現在判斷我們是否已經解決還為時過早。我很好奇你是否有任何統計數據可以分享，關於 FA 和/或客戶佔大部分移動的百分比是多少？我不確定這裡的[根源]是什麼，但很好奇這種轉變在乙烷客戶群中的廣泛程度或集中程度。

Yes. The -- in terms of the shift in terms of moving out of sweeps into savings or seeing savings products, we still have over 80% of our actual deposit base is coming from our own client base. What's interesting in terms of the movement of sweeps, which might be your question. I'm not sure I'm totally answering it, Glenn, is that we began to see some of those sweeps not just -- remember, we used to see them move into money markets or other cash alternatives.

是的。 - 就從掃蕩轉向儲蓄或查看儲蓄產品的轉變而言，我們仍然有超過 80% 的實際存款基礎來自我們自己的客戶群。掃掠運動的有趣之處是什麼，這可能是你的問題。格倫，我不確定我是否完全回答了這個問題，我們開始看到其中一些掃蕩不僅僅是——記住，我們過去常常看到它們進入貨幣市場或其他現金替代品。

In June, we began to see some of those dollars actually move into markets. So various assets we hadn't seen that trend since January. So that just shows that some of the clients are actually also deploying excess cash or cash equivalents actually into the marketplace as well.

六月份，我們開始看到其中一些美元實際上進入了市場。自一月份以來我們就沒有看到各種資產的這種趨勢。因此，這只是表明一些客戶實際上也在將多餘的現金或現金等價物部署到市場上。

Our next question will move to Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題將由 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak 提出。

So James, I appreciate your comments on Basel III end game. It might be helpful if you could just speak to how the lengthy transition period informs your near-term buyback appetite if at all? And given the RWA inflation could be quite meaningful, what are some of the mitigating actions you can pursue to alleviate some of the pressure on your businesses?

詹姆斯，我很欣賞你對巴塞爾協議 III 最終結果的評論。如果您能談談漫長的過渡期如何影響您的近期回購意願（如果有的話），這可能會有所幫助？鑑於 RWA 通脹可能相當有意義，您可以採取哪些緩解措施來減輕企業的壓力？

Well, again, I think, Steve, we've got to see the rule proposed first. I mean, without talking out of school, I clearly had conversations with all the appropriate regulatory bodies. And I'm encouraged by their response, which is they sincerely want to hear comments from the industry. They do understand capital changes across the whole industry have to result in the right economic outcome for the country.

好吧，我想，史蒂夫，我們必須首先看看提議的規則。我的意思是，不用在校外談論，我顯然已經與所有適當的監管機構進行了對話。他們的回應令我深受鼓舞，他們真誠地希望聽到業界的評論。他們確實明白整個行業的資本變化必須為國家帶來正確的經濟成果。

And by definition, the bank's stability, as evidenced by the recent many years of CCARs, shows that the G-SIB banks, the top 8 banks for sure, are well capitalized. So I don't want to get ahead and talk about what we'd mitigate. Clearly, we have flexibility around our RWAs. You saw that this quarter, we ended up with 15.5% CET1.

從定義上看，最近幾年的 CCAR 證明了該銀行的穩定性，表明 G-SIB 銀行（當然是前 8 名銀行）資本充足。所以我不想提前談論我們要減輕什麼。顯然，我們的 RWA 具有靈活性。您看到，本季度我們的 CET1 達到了 15.5%。

We did that not really from a Basel III perspective. I mean we had that in the back of my mind, but more from this environment, it was a little squarely. I mean, let's just say it that you had 3 bank fails at the beginning of the quarter. That wasn't a good look. So we wanted to be cautious. And on the specific buyback, obviously, just on the dividend, we're totally comfortable with the dividend.

我們這樣做並不是真正從巴塞爾協議 III 的角度出發。我的意思是，我們心裡也有這樣的想法，但更多的是從這個環境來看，這有點直截了當。我的意思是，假設本季度初有 3 家銀行倒閉。那樣子不太好看。所以我們要保持謹慎。顯然，就具體的回購而言，就股息而言，我們對股息完全滿意。

We've said many, many times we regard half the company as a yield stock, and we're going to treat it that way. And the dividend increases, as you've seen, I think they're entirely appropriate, and I would expect they continue over coming years without saying exactly what level they're at. On the buyback, I mean, we would take advantage of weakness in the stock. We will be prudent.

我們已經說過很多很多次了，我們將公司的一半視為收益股票，我們也會這樣對待它。正如你所看到的，股息增加了，我認為它們是完全合適的，我預計它們會在未來幾年繼續增加，但不會具體說明它們處於什麼水平。我的意思是，在回購方面，我們將利用股票的疲軟。我們會謹慎行事。

We're creating -- this was a very difficult quarter, and we accreted $2 billion. So it's not like we're not making money here. And I'd like to see the rule, I guess, in a couple of weeks, Sharon, right? We're getting the rule and then the first range of comments. We'll be doing buybacks through this year. We have $20 billion authorization from the Board.

我們正在創造——這是一個非常困難的季度，我們積累了 20 億美元。所以我們這裡並不是不賺錢。我想幾週後就能看到這條規則，莎倫，對嗎？我們正在了解規則，然後是第一批評論。今年我們將進行回購。我們獲得了董事會 200 億美元的授權。

We won't be doing $20 billion, but we'll be doing buybacks, and we'll moderate it. I think this thing is going to take, as I said, I'd be surprised if this is all done and dusted by, where are we? '23. By the end of '26. I think that's sort of -- and that's 3.5 years, which is a lifetime in these industries.

我們不會投入 200 億美元，但我們會進行回購，並且我們會對其進行適度調整。我認為這件事將會發生，正如我所說，如果這一切都完成並除塵，我會感到驚訝，我們在哪裡？ '23。到 26 年底。我認為這大約是 3.5 年，這是這些行業的一生。

No, it's a fair point, James. I mean, immediately, we all had the experience with Basel III when it wasn't going to get fully implemented for a period of years and the impacts were fully loaded. So I think we're all just trying to prepare for maybe some expectation that it gets priced in a little bit more quickly.

不，這是一個公平的觀點，詹姆斯。我的意思是，我們立刻就體驗到了《巴塞爾協議 III》，當時它在幾年內不會得到充分實施，而且影響已經滿載。所以我認為我們都只是在努力為它的定價更快一點的預期做好準備。

It could. It could. And we'll adapt, but we won't change our strategy. And I'm going to be a strong advocate on where I think some of these rules do not align with what is right for the global -- the U.S. financial system and the U.S. economy, not just Morgan Stanley's self-interest.

它可以。它可以。我們會適應，但不會改變我們的策略。我將堅決主張其中一些規則不符合全球的正確做法——美國金融體系和美國經濟，而不僅僅是摩根士丹利的自身利益。

No, helpful perspective. If I could squeeze in one more here, just on Investment Management. The 30% margin goal that you've laid out for Wealth and IM, Wealth, when we adjust for the specials, of about 300 bps, you're within spitting distance of that 30%. The investment Management margin, it's running in the mid-teens.

不，有幫助的觀點。如果我可以在這裡再擠進一篇，就投資管理而言。您為 Wealth 和 IM、Wealth 制定的 30% 利潤目標，當我們針對特價進行調整時，約為 300 個基點，您距離 30% 已經很近了。投資管理利潤率在十幾歲左右。

And I recognize you're still integrating Eaton Vance. But what are your margin aspirations for that business? And what are some of the actions you're taking to maybe help close that gap?

我知道您仍在整合伊頓萬斯。但您對該業務的利潤期望是多少？您正在採取哪些行動來幫助縮小這一差距？

So Steve, the margin goals that we've given have been really around Wealth Management. I respect your point though, we have given larger efficiency targets for the firm. And so there are places where you all puts and takes between ISG and IM. Remember, if we look back less than 18 months ago or so, we did -- we were close to 30% margins in the IM business.

所以史蒂夫，我們給出的利潤目標實際上是圍繞財富管理的。不過，我尊重你的觀點，我們為公司設定了更大的效率目標。因此，您可以在 ISG 和 IM 之間進行放置和獲取。請記住，如果我們回顧不到 18 個月前左右，我們確實做到了——我們 IM 業務的利潤率接近 30%。

So what we've seen over the course of the last year or so has just been the cumulative impact of the outflows associated with changes in what investor appetite was, particularly around active equity. But also just the asset levels themselves that are associated with market. What's important to us is the diversification of the platform and then continuing to invest in where we see real changes in that business.

因此，我們在過去一年左右的時間裡看到的是與投資者偏好變化相關的資金外流的累積影響，特別是在主動股票方面。但也只是與市場相關的資產水平本身。對我們來說重要的是平台的多元化，然後繼續投資於我們看到該業務真正變化的地方。

And I mean by that business, I mean more broadly in an industry landscape. So things like customization consistently, every quarter, regardless of what we've seen sort of on the top line, we continue to see increased flows, net inflows on the customization product. You saw -- we talked about a solutions-based product this additional quarter.

我所說的業務，是指更廣泛的行業格局。因此，每個季度都會持續進行定制，無論我們在營收方面看到什麼，我們都會繼續看到定制產品的流量和淨流入增加。您看到了——我們在這個額外的季度討論了基於解決方案的產品。

So we're leaning into where we see industry opportunities. And as we grow assets, similar to us growing assets on the Wealth Management side, that should help support the margin for the Investment Management business, which we do see as a through-the-cycle business.

因此，我們正在關注我們看到的行業機會。隨著我們資產的增長，就像我們在財富管理方面增長資產一樣，這應該有助於支持投資管理業務的利潤，我們確實將其視為一個貫穿週期的業務。

We'll move to our next question from Brennan Hawken with UBS. We move to the next question from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

我們將轉向瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的布倫南·霍肯 (Brennan Hawken) 提出的下一個問題。我們轉向富國銀行邁克·梅奧提出的下一個問題。

Well, this is the first chance we have to ask you about the CEO change, James. And just...

詹姆斯，這是我們第一次有機會詢問您有關首席執行官變更的問題。而且只是...

Mike you asked me about CEO change in 2012.

邁克，你問我關於 2012 年 CEO 變更的事。

You survived and thrived. So, there you go. So first, I don't understand what the Executive Chairman is. And I do hope you have in-person shareholder meetings again like you did in the past. And what will that mean when you're an Executive Chairman? And what is your thought process on timing of the new CEO? And what are your considerations?

你活了下來並蓬勃發展。那麼，就這樣吧。首先，我不明白執行主席是什麼。我確實希望你們能像過去一樣再次召開現場股東大會。當您擔任執行主席時，這意味著什麼？您對新任首席執行官的任命時間有何思考？您的考慮是什麼？

I mean we could all go through the candidates that we see in the press, but let's just hear from you directly what you're thinking and what the Board is thinking who ultimately makes that decision.

我的意思是，我們都可以審查我們在媒體上看到的候選人，但讓我們直接聽聽您的想法以及最終做出決定的董事會的想法。

Well, to take a few of those pieces, we're not going to have in-person shareholder meetings. Since the years I did this before COVID, we have more people from security than we did shareholders physically in the meeting. So let's just be honest, it was an enormous waste of time and money. And while 1 or 2 people might ask like asking question in person, I just don't think it's a good use of time and money.

好吧，舉幾個例子，我們不會召開面對面的股東大會。自從我在新冠疫情爆發之前這樣做以來，我們的安全人員比現場參加會議的股東還要多。所以說實話，這是對時間和金錢的巨大浪費。雖然一兩個人可能會像親自提問一樣提出問題，但我認為這不是很好地利用時間和金錢。

But that along with my pet peeve that we shouldn't have quarterly earnings reports, they should be every 6 months. There'll be 2 immediate changes I would make if I was God of Finance. But that's not what you really asked about. On the CEO stuff, I mean, Mike, we -- I said about 5 years ago, it stepped down about 5 years. I said 3 years ago to be 3 years, and nobody believed me.

但我最討厭的是我們不應該有季度收益報告，它們應該每 6 個月一次。如果我是財神，我會立即做出兩個改變。但這不是你真正問的。關於首席執行官的事情，我的意思是，邁克，我們——我大約 5 年前說過，它下台了大約 5 年。我說三年前就是三年，但沒有人相信我。

So I said the best way to get people to believe and the Board agree with this strategy was that the annual meeting to say I won't be in the job of the next annual meeting. So that makes it very clear. it's 12 months. We're already 2 months in -- when exactly that happens, frankly, just isn't that relevant. I mean whether it happens tomorrow, it happens on me, whatever it is 15th or something next annual meeting is irrelevant, it will happen somewhere between those dates.

所以我說，讓人們相信並且董事會同意這一策略的最好方法是在年度會議上說我不會在下一次年度會議上擔任該職位。所以這就很清楚了。已經12個月了。坦率地說，我們已經兩個月了——當這種情況發生時，已經不那麼重要了。我的意思是，無論它發生在明天，還是發生在我身上，無論是 15 日還是下一次年會，都無關緊要，它都會發生在這些日期之間的某個時間。

There's a few things I think just given my tenure, I can probably get done that will help the new CEO get off to a great start. And that is my intent, I want somebody to do this job as well better than I've done it for the next several years and to thrive in it. And the best way to help them is to get them off to a good start. So the exact timing will be just driven by that, obviously, given the questions here on Basel III end game, that's an important thing for me to dig into over the next few months.

我認為在我的任期內，我可能可以完成一些事情，這將有助於新任首席執行官取得一個良好的開端。這就是我的意圖，我希望有人在接下來的幾年裡比我做得更好，並在其中茁壯成長。幫助他們的最好方法就是讓他們有一個良好的開端。因此，確切的時間安排將取決於這一點，顯然，考慮到巴塞爾協議 III 最終遊戲的問題，這對我來說是接下來幾個月要深入研究的重要事情。

We just got the CCAR stuff done. We got the dividend done. We're chipping away at what I call the remaining pieces. The Board will ultimately decide. We have a process. It's a committee, the Comp Management Development Succession Committee chaired by Dennis Nally, runs that process. It reports to the Board, obviously, and the (inaudible) Board will ultimately choose the next CEO, and I'm sure at some point, they want my formal input on that, but they're doing their processes, they should independently.

我們剛剛完成了 CCAR 的工作。我們已經完成了股息。我們正在削減我所說的剩餘部分。董事會將最終做出決定。我們有一個過程。這是一個委員會，即由丹尼斯·納利 (Dennis Nally) 擔任主席的薪酬管理髮展繼任委員會，負責管理該流程。顯然，它向董事會報告，（聽不清）董事會最終將選擇下一任首席執行官，我確信在某個時候，他們希望我對此提出正式意見，但他們正在執行自己的流程，他們應該獨立進行。

And I think it's very healthy. So the criteria you look for, obviously, not necessarily who's the business operator running a given business on a given day, but who's best equipped to deal with the multiple constituencies and challenges of running a global bank. And that's what the Board will figure out. So saying more than that, I think, would be inappropriate because it gets ahead of the Board's process. And that's their job. And I'm just here to help along the way. So hopefully, that clarifies it, Mike.

我認為這非常健康。因此，顯然，您尋找的標準不一定是在特定日期運營特定業務的業務運營商，而是誰最有能力應對運營全球銀行的多個選區和挑戰。這就是董事會將要解決的問題。因此，我認為說得更多是不合適的，因為這超出了董事會的流程。這就是他們的工作。我只是在這裡提供幫助。希望這能澄清這一點，邁克。

Yes. Just one follow-up. So that -- at least I guess there's 3 contenders, the 3 heads of the business lines, if that's correct. And I guess that means maybe 2 people don't get the job. What's a good technique for your firm or any firm to make sure that those people who don't get the top job are still made part -- still stay with the firm and fill a part of everything that's happening?

是的。只是一個後續行動。所以——至少我猜有 3 個競爭者，3 個業務線的負責人，如果這是正確的。我猜這意味著可能有兩個人得不到這份工作。對於你的公司或任何公司來說，有什麼好的技巧可以確保那些沒有獲得最高職位的人仍然留在公司並參與正在發生的一切事情？

Wall Street has had a history of that not happening. I think we will -- frankly, we will challenge that history. We have an unbelievable team that worked together for at least 8 years. I think they've all been on the operating committee, and we have an unbelievable team of executives around them, Sharon, who you're hearing on this call; Eric Grossman, our Chief Legal Officer; Claire Woodman, who runs Europe, Middle East and so on and so on.

華爾街有過這種情況沒有發生的歷史。我認為我們將——坦率地說，我們將挑戰這段歷史。我們擁有一支令人難以置信的團隊，他們一起工作了至少 8 年。我認為他們都是運營委員會的成員，我們周圍有一支令人難以置信的高管團隊，莎倫，你在這次電話會議上聽到了她的聲音；埃里克·格羅斯曼 (Eric Grossman)，我們的首席法務官；克萊爾·伍德曼（Claire Woodman）負責歐洲、中東等地區的業務。

So we have a lot of very talented executives. That will be for myself, frankly, to help navigate that path. But these jobs are enormous jobs, whether the CEO or President or COO of these global companies, and we're one of the largest companies in the world. So I'm confident we'll end up in a great place, Mike.

所以我們有很多非常有才華的高管。坦率地說，這將有助於我自己走上這條道路。但這些工作崗位數量巨大，無論是這些跨國公司的首席執行官、總裁還是首席運營官，而我們是世界上最大的公司之一。所以我相信我們最終會取得一個好成績，邁克。

We'll move to our next question from Brennan Hawken with UBS.

我們將轉向瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的布倫南·霍肯 (Brennan Hawken) 提出的下一個問題。

Hopefully, you can hear me now. All right. Sorry about that before. So Sharon, I know you mentioned before about the NII and the deposit cost having a big impact. But actually, the deposit cost trends were roughly in line with what we were looking for, and yet NII turned out to be a little better than expected.

希望你現在能聽到我的聲音。好的。之前就很抱歉了。 Sharon，我知道您之前提到過 NII 和存款成本的影響很大。但實際上，存款成本趨勢大致符合我們的預期，但 NII 卻比預期要好一些。

Could you tell us -- we don't have great visibility on the asset side, did something happen on the asset side? Were you able to reprice some assets? And how much more of that do we have potentially on the come?

您能否告訴我們——我們在資產方面沒有很好的可見性，資產方面是否發生了一些事情？您能夠對某些資產重新定價嗎？未來我們還有多少這樣的潛力？

There were some places where we benefited from the asset side. But as you know, we'll have to look at the ALM mix, and it will be dependent on some of the market rates that we see going forward. So unfortunately, there's not much more clarity I can give you other than what is leading us as we go forward is largely that liability mix. And so that's the trend that will -- when we look out in the next couple of quarters is one of the biggest trends that will drive NII from here.

有一些地方我們從資產方面受益。但如您所知，我們必須考慮 ALM 組合，這將取決於我們未來看到的一些市場利率。不幸的是，除了我們前進的動力主要是責任組合之外，我無法向您提供更多的明確信息。因此，當我們展望未來幾個季度時，這就是推動 NII 發展的最大趨勢之一。

Okay. And then I noticed -- I know it can diverge sometimes, but the trends from wide NII were different down about $300 million quarter-over-quarter. So could you help us maybe understand why it was that the firm-wide NII differed substantially from the Wealth Management trends?

好的。然後我注意到——我知道有時會出現偏差，但廣泛 NII 的趨勢有所不同，季度環比下降了約 3 億美元。那麼您能否幫助我們理解為什麼全公司的 NII 與財富管理趨勢存在很大差異？

Yes. That was largely just associated with the trading position. And as you know, it depends on many things, including what products you have, where they're booked, how they're booked and what type of instrument and in addition, various types of funding costs. So it's really the -- I think when we look and we manage the business, specifically on the trading side, given our portfolio and how we think about our bank versus just the broader broker dealer, et cetera.

是的。這很大程度上與交易頭寸有關。如您所知，這取決於很多因素，包括您擁有什麼產品、在哪裡預訂、如何預訂、工具類型以及各種類型的融資成本。所以，我認為，當我們審視和管理業務時，特別是在交易方面，考慮到我們的投資組合以及我們如何看待我們的銀行與更廣泛的經紀交易商等。

We don't manage it on an NII basis when we're looking at NII. NII is clearly a driver from the wealth Management side.

當我們考慮 NII 時，我們並不以 NII 為基礎進行管理。 NII 顯然是財富管理方面的驅動力。

We'll move to our next question from Dan Fannon with Jefferies.

我們將轉向丹·範農 (Dan Fannon) 和杰弗里斯 (Jefferies) 提出的下一個問題。

Another question on Wealth and acknowledging the strong NNA number in aggregate. But what do you think we need to see for the fee-based NNA to begin to get closer in size to the total NNA? And maybe what you think longer term that mix will look like?

另一個關於財富的問題，並承認 NNA 總體數字強勁。但您認為我們需要看到什麼才能使收費 NNA 的規模開始接近 NNA 總量？也許您認為從長遠來看，這種組合會是什麼樣子？

Great question. We've looked a lot at fee-based and thought about sort of as we think about the funnel. One thing that we highlighted to you last year or last quarter, rather, was that from the adviser-led side, still had around 23% of those assets and cash and cash equivalents. That is a historical average of the last 5 years is around 18%.

很好的問題。我們對收費模式進行了很多研究，並像考慮漏斗一樣進行了思考。我們去年或上個季度向大家強調的一件事是，顧問主導的方面仍然擁有約 23% 的資產以及現金和現金等價物。過去 5 年的歷史平均值約為 18%。

So in our mind, a lot of it has to do with the way that people are looking at the markets right now. And the idea that when you're moving into a fee-based assets, specifically on the retail side, you are doing so and you're actually obviously actively investing different market assets.

因此，在我們看來，這很大程度上與人們目前看待市場的方式有關。這個想法是，當你進入收費資產時，特別是在零售方面，你正在這樣做，而且你實際上顯然是在積極投資不同的市場資產。

And so what is encouraging is, as I highlighted on, I think, to the question Glenn asked is that in the last month of the quarter, we began to see individual retail clients actually put that money into markets. So that's an encouraging sign. But we do think that a portion of that is market dependent.

因此，令人鼓舞的是，正如我所強調的，我認為，格倫提出的問題是，在本季度的最後一個月，我們開始看到個人零售客戶實際上將這些資金投入市場。所以這是一個令人鼓舞的跡象。但我們確實認為其中一部分取決於市場。

We'll move to our next question from Gerard Cassidy with RBC Capital Markets.

我們將轉向加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部門杰拉德·卡西迪提出的下一個問題。

Sharon, can you give us some color when the E*TRADE deal was closed, I think it was back in October 2020, one of the real attractions I think, for Morgan Stanley was the workplace channel. And you guys are obviously a dominant player in this workplace channel. Are there any metrics that you can share with us on the success you're having in increasing the penetration in that channel?

Sharon，您能給我們介紹一下 E*TRADE 交易完成時的情況嗎？我想那是在 2020 年 10 月，我認為對摩根士丹利來說真正有吸引力的地方之一是工作場所渠道。你們顯然是這個職場渠道的主導者。您是否可以與我們分享一些關於您在提高該渠道滲透率方面所取得的成功的指標？

Yes. We've talked a lot in the last 2 quarterly updates around just the movement that we see in terms of channel migration, it's what we've called it. So workplace assets that are then some portion of it is moved into the adviser led side. And then from that sort of as a core, you see assets held away beginning to come in.

是的。我們在過去兩個季度的更新中談論了很多關於我們在渠道遷移方面看到的運動，這就是我們所說的。因此，工作場所資產的一部分被轉移到顧問主導的一側。然後從這種核心來看，你會看到被保留的資產開始流入。

For the first 3 years that we [had back], that number was around $150 billion, so call it $50 billion a quarter. And then in the first quarter of this year, we were -- for that one quarter, we saw $28 billion. And when you look at the first half, we're largely running almost up to a full year rate of last year. And so what that puts into account is we are seeing encouraging signs.

在我們[收回]的前三年，這個數字約為 1500 億美元，所以稱其為每季度 500 億美元。然後在今年第一季度，我們看到了 280 億美元。當你看上半年時，我們基本上幾乎達到了去年全年的水平。因此，考慮到我們正在看到令人鼓舞的跡象。

We don't know exactly where that number will land. But obviously, it's trending in a good direction. And what it shows again is that workplace can begin to be sort of a seed to the conversation that people have with advisers. And you see that being 10%, 20% of the assets that are brought in through the migration, the other 80% or so are coming in from assets held away.

我們不知道這個數字到底會落在哪裡。但顯然，它正在朝著好的方向發展。它再次表明，工作場所可以開始成為人們與顧問對話的種子。您會看到，10%、20% 的資產是通過遷移引入的，另外 80% 左右的資產是從保留的資產中引入的。

Very good. And then James, just to circle back to the capital comments that you made with the Basel III end game, and we've heard from some of your peers about the engagement with the regulators appears to be stronger this time maybe than in the past. Can you share with us your feelings when you think about what you guys all went through post the financial crisis and the new regulations that came from Dodd-Frank? Do you think the regulators are really listening to you folks more so this time than in the past? Or is that not the case?

非常好。然後，詹姆斯，回到您對巴塞爾協議 III 最終遊戲所做的資本評論，我們從您的一些同行那裡聽說，這次與監管機構的接觸似乎比過去更強。當您想到金融危機後你們所經歷的一切以及多德弗蘭克法案的新法規時，您能與我們分享一下您的感受嗎？您認為監管機構這次真的比過去更多地聽取了你們的意見嗎？或者事實並非如此？

Well, I think, Gerard, it's early. We need to see the rule. The test -- there's one thing to listen and there's another thing to listen and act. The test is once the regulatory community receives feedback from the industry groups, which are very coordinated, I will say. What input do they take into account frankly, how do we compare what the European banks have done on their own regulations.

嗯，我想，杰拉德，現在還早。我們需要看到規則。測試——傾聽是一回事，傾聽和行動又是另一回事。我想說的是，一旦監管機構收到行業團體的反饋，就會面臨考驗，這些團體非常協調。坦率地說，他們考慮了什麼意見，我們如何比較歐洲銀行在自己的監管方面所做的事情。

So I think bringing the U.S. to sort of a gold-plated European standard just doesn't feel to me like the right end outcome, I think we should do what's right for the U.S. financial system. Yes, I think they're listening. They've shown an interest in -- a strong interest in getting the feedback from the industry, the communities, the legislative bodies, et cetera.

因此，我認為讓美國採用鍍金的歐洲標準對我來說並不是正確的最終結果，我認為我們應該為美國金融體係做正確的事情。是的，我想他們正在聽。他們對從行業、社區、立法機構等獲取反饋表現出了濃厚的興趣。

So -- but the proof will be in the pudding, we'll find out over the next -- I don't know how long it will take the comment period, I'm assuming it could be a year or so. I mean, this is a big deal. Remember, Basel III end game was first proposed in 2017. So it's taken 6 years to make its way in a small sailing boat across the Atlantic. And here it is.

所以——但證據就在布丁中，我們會在接下來的時間裡找到答案——我不知道評論期需要多長時間，我假設可能是一年左右。我的意思是，這是一件大事。請記住，巴塞爾協議 III 的最終遊戲是在 2017 年首次提出的。因此，它花了 6 年時間才乘坐小帆船橫渡大西洋。就是這樣。

So now we're going to decide what we like about what we don't. So I'm maintaining a constructive tone because I think everybody wants to end up in the right place. I don't happen to think, and this is contrary to some people's views that the Silicon Valley First Republic have a whole lot to do with this stuff, but that's a different discussion for a later day.

所以現在我們要決定我們喜歡什麼，不喜歡什麼。所以我保持建設性的語氣，因為我認為每個人都希望最終能到達正確的位置。我不認為，這與一些人的觀點相反，即矽谷第一共和國與這些東西有很大關係，但這是稍後的不同討論。

So yes, I would hope and expect that they're going to listen because they -- we should be listening to each other.

所以，是的，我希望並期望他們會傾聽，因為我們應該互相傾聽。

For our next question, we'll move to Andrew Lim with SocGen.

對於我們的下一個問題，我們將請來法國興業銀行的 Andrew Lim。

I'd like to circle back again on Basel III as well. So I know your comments about European banks having maybe a bit more work to do. A lot of them are guiding towards impacts on the quantitative basis at the low end sort of like below 50 basis points. So I was just wondering if you saw something a bit more specific that might level the playing field for the European banks versus U.S. bank's debate?

我還想再次回顧一下巴塞爾協議 III。所以我知道您對歐洲銀行可能還有更多工作要做的評論。其中許多都在引導對低端定量基礎的影響，比如低於 50 個基點。所以我只是想知道您是否看到了一些更具體的內容，可能會為歐洲銀行與美國銀行的辯論提供公平的競爭環境？

And then turning over to the U.S. banks. Obviously, we're all familiar with the large impacts that have been talked about by Jerome Powell and Michael Bar. One of your competitors was a bit more forthcoming saying that, that might allude to operational risk-weighted assets being added to total standardized risk-weighted assets, which currently isn't the case under the standardized approach.

然後交給美國銀行。顯然，我們都熟悉杰羅姆·鮑威爾和邁克爾·巴爾所談論的巨大影響。您的一位競爭對手更願意說，這可能暗示將操作風險加權資產添加到標準化風險加權資產總額中，而目前標準化方法下的情況並非如此。

So I was wondering if you had any -- like specific thoughts about that or whether you thought that was a bit more -- a bit less relevant given that, that would allude to legacy RMBS losses from many years ago. How do you think about that?

因此，我想知道您是否對此有任何具體想法，或者您是否認為這有點更相關，考慮到這會暗示多年前遺留的 RMBS 損失。您對此有何看法？

Well, I'm not going to go into more detail about the European bank. So I was just observing that the system was set up many years ago under Basel European banks, some of which are fully compliant with it and some are not yet. And the country system was set up in the U.S. of CCAR. So we've actually had a capital stress test system for at least, I don't know, 12 years or something.

好吧，我不打算詳細介紹這家歐洲銀行。所以我只是觀察到該系統是多年前在巴塞爾歐洲銀行下建立的，其中一些銀行完全符合該系統，而另一些則尚未。 CCAR的國家體係是在美國建立的。所以我們實際上已經有一個資本壓力測試系統了，我不知道，至少有 12 年了。

So that was simply the observation. On the operational risk standardized approach to risk-weighted assets, yes, actually, that is very clearly going to be in the proposal. That is the Basel III proposal, and that is going to be in the initial readout, I think, from the U.S. proposal. Where that ends up, I've made my position very clear on that.

這就是觀察結果。關於風險加權資產的操作風險標準化方法，是的，實際上，提案中非常明確地包含了這一點。這就是巴塞爾協議 III 的提案，我認為，這將出現在美國提案的初步解讀中。至於最終結果，我已經非常明確地表明了我的立場。

But a timing standardized RWAs to fee-based business is not -- just doesn't make sense to me. So up until now, we've had idiosyncratic evaluation of specific bank operational risk and the regulators are trying to move to a standardized approach. How they get there when we get there remains a lot to be seen. A lot of work to be done on that.

但將 RWA 標準化到收費業務的時機對我來說沒有意義。因此，到目前為止，我們對特定銀行操作風險進行了特殊評估，監管機構正在嘗試轉向標準化方法。當我們到達那裡時，他們如何到達那裡還有很多有待觀察。這方面還有很多工作要做。

There are no further questions at this time. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you, everyone, for participating. You may now disconnect.

目前沒有其他問題。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。