摩根士丹利 (MS) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to Morgan Stanley's Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. On behalf of Morgan Stanley, I will begin the call with the following information and disclaimers.

早上好。歡迎參加摩根士丹利 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議。我將代表摩根士丹利在電話會議開始時提供以下信息和免責聲明。

This call is being recorded. During today's presentation, we will refer to our earnings release and financial supplement, copies of which are available at morganstanley.com.

正在錄製此通話。在今天的演示中，我們將參考我們的收益發布和財務補充，其副本可在 morganstanley.com 上獲得。

Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to our notices regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures that appear in the earnings release.

今天的演示文稿可能包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。請參閱我們關於收益發布中出現的前瞻性陳述和非公認會計原則措施的通知。

This presentation may not be duplicated or reproduced without our consent.

未經我們同意，不得複製或複製本演示文稿。

I will now turn the call over to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, James Gorman.

我現在將把電話轉給董事長兼首席執行官詹姆斯·戈爾曼。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We're doing the call a little differently this time. I'm in London, Sharon is in New York. So if we have any logistical gaps for a second or two, please understand, but I think we'll be just fine.

謝謝你，接線員。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。這次我們的通話方式略有不同。我在倫敦，莎倫在紐約。因此，如果我們有一兩秒鐘的後勤缺口，請理解，但我認為我們會沒事的。

The firm delivered a very solid quarter against, obviously, what is a more challenging backdrop. Our businesses proved resilient, reflecting an important aspect of our strategy, and that is to, as we've said many times, deliver stable performance in a difficult environment while remaining well capitalized.

顯然，在更具挑戰性的背景下，該公司實現了非常穩健的季度。我們的業務被證明具有彈性，這反映了我們戰略的一個重要方面，即正如我們多次說過的那樣，在困難的環境中提供穩定的業績，同時保持充足的資本。

The integrations of E*TRADE and Eaton Vance continued to expand our opportunities to reach new clients, grow assets and support the firm's overall stability.

E*TRADE 和伊頓萬斯的整合繼續擴大我們接觸新客戶、增加資產和支持公司整體穩定性的機會。

Net new assets in Wealth Management of over $50 billion, despite the volatility and clients tax-related withdrawals in the quarter, underscored the scale of our business and its power to attract assets. And in the face of a sharp decline of equity markets, Wealth Management delivered a strong PBT and improved margin, supported by the benefits of rising rates.

儘管本季度波動性和客戶與稅收相關的提款，財富管理的淨新資產超過 500 億美元，這突顯了我們的業務規模及其吸引資產的能力。面對股票市場的急劇下跌，財富管理在利率上升的好處的支持下，實現了強勁的 PBT 並提高了利潤率。

Investment Management benefited from its diversification, and we saw continued momentum in private alternatives, parametric customized portfolios and the countercyclicality of our money market business.

投資管理受益於其多元化，我們看到私人另類投資、參數定制投資組合和貨幣市場業務的反週期持續發展勢頭。

Finally, in Institutional Securities, our strong franchise in equity and fixed income helps materially counter what everybody knows to be limited activity across Investment Banking.

最後，在機構證券方面，我們在股票和固定收益方面的強大專營權有助於從實質上應對眾所周知的投資銀行業務活動有限的問題。

Our results this quarter also reflected two notable headwinds that are worth calling out. First, we saw a significant movement in the investments related to deferred cash-based compensation plans.

我們本季度的業績也反映了兩個值得注意的不利因素。首先，我們看到與遞延現金補償計劃相關的投資發生了重大變化。

While the marks on these investments are substantially offsetting compensation expense, they created a significant drag on top line revenues in the quarter across the firm, particularly in Wealth Management, where the impact of revenues exceeded $500 million.

雖然這些投資的分數大大抵消了薪酬費用，但它們對整個公司的季度收入造成了重大拖累，特別是在財富管理領域，收入的影響超過了 5 億美元。

Secondly, the quarter results also included the legal costs of $200 million that reflects the likely resolution of regulatory investigations by the SEC and the CFTC regarding employees' use of unapproved personal devices and the firm's record-keeping requirements. This has been the subject of industry-wide scrutiny.

其次，本季度業績還包括 2 億美元的法律費用，這反映了 SEC 和 CFTC 可能解決的有關員工使用未經批准的個人設備的監管調查以及公司的記錄保存要求。這一直是全行業審查的主題。

Our ROTCE, excluding integration expenses for the deals that we've done, was 14.3%, down 20% in Q1 and from last year. As I said at the outset, our objective to demonstrate resilience and balance in a more difficult economic cycle was achieved this quarter, helped in part by the acquisition of E*TRADE and Eaton Vance in what was otherwise a challenging environment.

我們的 ROTCE（不包括我們已完成交易的整合費用）為 14.3%，在第一季度和去年同期下降了 20%。正如我在一開始所說的那樣，我們在本季度實現了在更加困難的經濟周期中展示彈性和平衡的目標，部分原因是在原本充滿挑戰的環境中收購了 E*TRADE 和伊頓萬斯。

Finally, the Fed stress test further affirmed our differentiated business model. Our diversified business mix as well as our strong capital position provide us the flexibility to invest for future growth and support our robust capital return program. As such, we increased our quarterly dividend by 11% and announced a $20 billion multiyear buyback program.

最後，美聯儲壓力測試進一步肯定了我們差異化的商業模式。我們多元化的業務組合以及強大的資本狀況為我們提供了投資未來增長的靈活性，並支持我們強大的資本回報計劃。因此，我們將季度股息提高了 11%，並宣布了一項 200 億美元的多年回購計劃。

Having a dividend that's aligned to the more stable earnings from Wealth and Investment Management is a leading priority of this firm. And by the way, today's stock price, the current dividend, has a yield of approximately 4%.

擁有與財富和投資管理公司更穩定的收益相一致的股息是這家公司的首要任務。順便說一句，今天的股價，即當前的股息，收益率約為 4%。

With the buyback, we wanted more flexibility than an annual fixed commitment allows. Given the nature of our business model, it's especially appealing to have this additional flexibility to deploy capital at what we believe to be attractive valuations.

通過回購，我們希望獲得比年度固定承諾更大的靈活性。鑑於我們商業模式的性質，具有這種額外的靈活性以我們認為具有吸引力的估值來配置資本尤其有吸引力。

I'll now turn the call over to Sharon. And as always, at the end, we'll take your questions.

我現在將把電話轉給 Sharon。和往常一樣，最後，我們會回答你的問題。

Thank you and good morning. The firm produced revenues of $13.1 billion in the second quarter. Our EPS was $1.39, and our ROTCE was 13.8%. Excluding integration-related expenses, our EPS was $1.44 and our ROTCE was 14.3%. Our results reaffirm the stability of the franchise against a challenging backdrop and the benefits of a balanced business model.

謝謝你，早上好。該公司第二季度的收入為 131 億美元。我們的每股收益為 1.39 美元，ROTCE 為 13.8%。不包括與整合相關的費用，我們的每股收益為 1.44 美元，ROTCE 為 14.3%。我們的結果重申了特許經營在充滿挑戰的背景下的穩定性以及平衡商業模式的好處。

The integrated investment bank continues to serve clients' evolving needs in a dynamic environment. Wealth Management benefited from its scale and rising rates. Despite the decline in global asset prices, our expanded product set in Investment Management proved supportive to that business.

綜合投資銀行在動態環境中繼續滿足客戶不斷變化的需求。財富管理受益於其規模和利率上升。儘管全球資產價格下跌，但我們在投資管理中擴展的產品組合證明支持該業務。

The firm's year-to-date efficiency ratio, excluding integration-related expenses, was 70%. This includes the $200 million legal matter related to the firm's record-keeping requirements that James discussed.

該公司年初至今的效率比（不包括與整合相關的費用）為 70%。這包括詹姆斯討論的與公司記錄保存要求相關的 2 億美元法律事務。

Given the broader market uncertainty and inflationary environment, we are focused on discretionary spend while balancing continued investment initiatives and ensuring the right controls are in place to support future growth.

鑑於更廣泛的市場不確定性和通脹環境，我們專注於可自由支配的支出，同時平衡持續的投資計劃並確保採取適當的控制措施來支持未來的增長。

As a management team, our priority is to diligently address what we can control, given the market realities. We will continue to review incremental spend as we regard efficiency as a critical performance objective.

作為一個管理團隊，我們的首要任務是根據市場現實努力解決我們可以控制的問題。我們將繼續審查增量支出，因為我們將效率視為關鍵績效目標。

Now to the businesses. Institutional revenue of over $6 billion demonstrates the power of our balanced franchise against the difficult market backdrop. Revenues declined from the exceptionally strong prior year, while the backdrop was challenging for Investment Banking, particularly underwriting. Fixed income and equities led the strength of the quarter as clients navigated volatile markets.

現在到企業。超過 60 億美元的機構收入證明了我們在艱難的市場背景下平衡的特許經營權。收入較去年異常強勁的情況有所下降，而投資銀行業務面臨挑戰，尤其是承銷業務。隨著客戶在動蕩的市場中航行，固定收益和股票引領了本季度的強勁勢頭。

Investment Banking revenues were $1.1 billion, down significantly from the prior year. Heightened volatility led clients to delay strategic actions and new issue activity. Advisory revenues were $598 million, reflecting lower completed M&A volumes.

投資銀行業務收入為 11 億美元，較上年大幅下降。波動加劇導致客戶推遲戰略行動和新發行活動。諮詢收入為 5.98 億美元，反映出已完成的併購交易量較低。

Equity underwriting revenues declined to $148 million. Results were in line with global equity volumes, which fell meaningfully versus the prior year.

股票承銷收入下降至 1.48 億美元。結果與全球股票交易量一致，與去年相比顯著下降。

Fixed income underwriting revenues were $326 million, also down compared to the prior year as bond issuance was muted across both investment-grade and non-investment-grade companies.

固定收益承銷收入為 3.26 億美元，與上年相比也有所下降，原因是投資級和非投資級公司的債券發行均較為疲軟。

The Investment Banking pipeline remains solid. Conversion to realize will largely be dependent on market conditions and corporate confidence. Equity revenues were $3 billion, reflecting the strength of our business against a volatile backdrop.

投資銀行業務渠道依然穩固。轉換為變現將在很大程度上取決於市場狀況和企業信心。股票收入為 30 億美元，反映了我們在動盪背景下的業務實力。

Prime brokerage revenue...

大宗經紀收入...

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Please standby as we reconnect our speakers. Please continue.

請等待我們重新連接我們的揚聲器。請繼續。

Our revenues declined versus the prior year and reflected a loss of $413 million. Mark-to-market losses on corporate loans held for sale, including event loans, offset by gains on hedges, were $282 million. This reflected the widening of credit spreads.

我們的收入與去年相比有所下降，虧損 4.13 億美元。持有待售的公司貸款（包括事件貸款）的市值損失為 2.82 億美元，被對沖收益所抵消。這反映了信用利差的擴大。

Notable declines in deferred-based -- in deferred cash-based compensation plans, compared to gains in the prior year, also contributed to the decline.

與上一年的收益相比，基於遞延現金的薪酬計劃的顯著下降也導致了下降。

Turning to ISG lending. As a reminder, over 90% of our ISG loans and commitments are either investment-grade or secured. Our Institutional Securities Group credit portfolio continues to perform well. Our funded ratio on corporate loans stands at approximately 11%, in line with prepandemic levels and well below the first quarter 2020 peak of approximately 25%.

轉向 ISG 貸款。提醒一下，我們 90% 以上的 ISG 貸款和承諾要么是投資級的，要么是有擔保的。我們的機構證券集團信貸組合繼續表現良好。我們的企業貸款資金比率約為 11%，與疫情前水平一致，遠低於 2020 年第一季度約 25% 的峰值。

Turning to Wealth Management. By several measures, performance was strong despite the volatile backdrop. We reported revenues of $5.7 billion. Results were meaningfully impacted by movements in DCP, which reduced revenues by $515 million in the quarter.

轉向財富管理。從幾個方面來看，儘管背景波動很大，但表現依然強勁。我們報告的收入為 57 億美元。結果受到 DCP 變動的顯著影響，該季度收入減少了 5.15 億美元。

Excluding the impact of DCP, revenues increased 6% from the prior year to $6.3 billion, a new record. The decline in DCP was substantially offset by a reduction in compensation expense.

剔除 DCP 的影響，收入同比增長 6% 至 63 億美元，創下新紀錄。 DCP 的下降被補償費用的減少所抵消。

Excluding integration-related expenses, PBT was robust at $1.6 billion, and the margin increased to 28.2%. The margin resilience in a turbulent market environment serves as evidence of the strength of the franchise and the benefits of our business mix, including the growth of our banking offerings.

不包括與整合相關的費用，PBT 強勁，達到 16 億美元，利潤率提高到 28.2%。在動蕩的市場環境中，利潤率的彈性證明了特許經營的實力和我們業務組合的好處，包括我們銀行業務的增長。

Transactional revenues were $291 million. Excluding the impact of DCP, transactional revenues declined 17%. Lower revenues reflect a moderation of client activity from last year's elevated levels and limited new issuance.

交易收入為 2.91 億美元。排除 DCP 的影響，交易收入下降了 17%。較低的收入反映了客戶活動較去年的高水平有所緩和以及新發行量有限。

Self-directed daily average trades remained well above E*TRADE's pre-acquisition highs. Asset management revenues of $3.5 billion were up modestly versus the prior year, driven by strong fee-based flows, realized over recent quarters.

自主日均交易量仍遠高於 E*TRADE 的收購前高點。在最近幾個季度實現的基於費用的強勁流動的推動下，35 億美元的資產管理收入與去年相比略有增長。

Fee-based flow assets were $29 billion in the quarter, and fee-based assets now represent 50% of our adviser-led assets.

本季度收費流動資產為 290 億美元，收費資產現在占我們顧問主導資產的 50%。

Total net new assets were $53 billion in the quarter, bringing year-to-date NNA to $195 billion, representing a 6% annualized growth rate. Tax outflows were roughly double that of recent second quarter. And yet asset generation remains strong and balanced.

本季度淨新資產總額為 530 億美元，使年初至今的 NNA 達到 1950 億美元，年增長率為 6%。稅收流出量大約是最近第二季度的兩倍。然而，資產生成仍然強勁且平衡。

NNA was driven by existing and new clients in the adviser-led channel, stock plan vesting events, positive net recruiting and self-directed channel inflows.

NNA 由顧問主導渠道中的現有和新客戶、股票計劃歸屬事件、積極的淨招聘和自主渠道流入推動。

Bank lending balances grew $7 billion in the quarter, driven by securities-based lending and mortgages. We continue to expect full-year loan growth of $22 billion.

在基於證券的貸款和抵押貸款的推動下，本季度銀行貸款餘額增加了 70 億美元。我們繼續預計全年貸款增長 220 億美元。

Deposits declined $12 billion in the quarter to $340 billion. The decline was associated with seasonal tax outflows and the deployment of rate-sensitive cash. The outflows were largely in line with our expectations.

本季度存款減少 120 億美元至 3400 億美元。下降與季節性稅收外流和對利率敏感的現金的部署有關。資金流出基本符合我們的預期。

The average rate of deposits increased to 28 basis points. This was driven by an increase in savings account rates and deposit mix.

平均存款利率上升至 28 個基點。這是由儲蓄賬戶利率和存款組合的增加推動的。

Net interest income was $1.7 billion, up notably from the prior year, driven by higher rates and continued strong bank lending growth.

在利率上升和銀行貸款持續強勁增長的推動下，淨利息收入為 17 億美元，較上年顯著增加。

Looking ahead to the second quarter, NII is now a more reasonable exit rate, going forward. While the magnitude of rate hikes is not certain, if the forward curve is realized and our model assumptions materialize, we estimate $500 million of incremental NII to be spread over the upcoming two quarters, weighted towards the fourth quarter.

展望第二季度，NII 現在是一個更合理的退出率，繼續前進。雖然加息幅度不確定，但如果實現遠期曲線並且我們的模型假設實現，我們估計 5 億美元的增量 NII 將分佈在接下來的兩個季度中，加權到第四季度。

Turning to Investment Management. Revenues were $1.4 billion. Against the challenging public market environment, our results demonstrate the benefits of our diversified product mix, particularly with strength in our portfolio solutions, led by Parametric customization and private alternative funds as well as our liquidity offering.

轉向投資管理。收入為 14 億美元。在充滿挑戰的公開市場環境下，我們的業績證明了我們多元化產品組合的優勢，特別是在我們的投資組合解決方案中，以參數定制和私人另類基金以及我們的流動性產品為主導。

We've built a portfolio that provides balance across various market environments. The benefits of these efforts were apparent in the quarter. Total AUM was $1.4 trillion. Long-term net outflows of $3.5 billion primarily reflect recurring headwinds in equity strategies, where we are partially offset by strong demand in alternatives and solutions, particularly in Parametric customized portfolios.

我們已經建立了一個能夠在各種市場環境中提供平衡的投資組合。這些努力的好處在本季度顯而易見。總資產管理規模為 1.4 萬億美元。 35 億美元的長期淨流出主要反映了股票策略中反復出現的逆風，我們被替代品和解決方案的強勁需求部分抵消，特別是在參數化定制投資組合中。

Collaboration with our Wealth Management business as well as other U.S. wealth management platforms is a driver of strength of our customized offerings.

與我們的財富管理業務以及其他美國財富管理平台的合作是我們定制產品實力的驅動力。

Liquidity net inflows exceeded $30 billion. We have invested in our liquidity business in the past decade, which has positioned our franchise well to benefit from the current rising rate environment. Asset management and related fees were $1.3 billion. The impact of lower AUM was partially offset by higher liquidity fee revenue as rates came off of a zero bound.

流動性淨流入超過 300 億美元。在過去十年中，我們投資了我們的流動性業務，這使我們的特許經營權能夠很好地從當前不斷上漲的利率環境中受益。資產管理及相關費用為 13 億美元。隨著利率脫離零界限，流動性費用收入增加，部分抵消了資產管理規模下降的影響。

Performance-based income and other revenues were $107 million in the quarter. We saw broad-based gains in our private alternative portfolio, with particular strength in infrastructure and the energy sector investment. The decline versus the prior year was driven by movements in DCP and markdowns on public investments.

本季度基於績效的收入和其他收入為 1.07 億美元。我們在私人替代投資組合中看到了廣泛的收益，尤其是基礎設施和能源部門投資。與上一年相比的下降是由 DCP 的變動和公共投資的降價推動的。

Overall, our integration with Eaton Vance continues to progress well. We have seen early success in leveraging our global distribution across our combined businesses.

總體而言，我們與伊頓萬斯的整合繼續取得良好進展。我們已經看到在我們合併後的業務中利用我們的全球分佈的早期成功。

Turning to the balance sheet. Total spot assets declined 4% from the prior quarter to $1.2 trillion. Our standardized CET1 ratio was 15.2%, up 70 basis points versus the prior quarter. Standardized RWAs notably decreased to $461 billion from the prior quarter as we manage our exposure efficiently across our businesses amid a market decline. The result was a reduction in RWAs of $40 billion.

轉向資產負債表。現貨資產總額較上一季度下降 4%，至 1.2 萬億美元。我們的標準化 CET1 比率為 15.2%，比上一季度上升 70 個基點。標準化風險加權資產比上一季度顯著下降至 4610 億美元，因為我們在市場下滑的情況下有效地管理了我們的業務風險敞口。結果是風險加權資產減少了 400 億美元。

OCI related to our available-for-sale securities portfolio reflected an increase of unrealized losses of $1.1 billion. While this should be earned back over time, it reduced our CET1 ratio by approximately 20 basis points in the quarter.

與我們的可供出售證券投資組合相關的 OCI 反映未實現虧損增加了 11 億美元。雖然這應該隨著時間的推移而收回，但它在本季度將我們的 CET1 比率降低了大約 20 個基點。

Our supplementary leverage ratio was 5.4%. During the second quarter, we completed our $12 billion buyback plan that we announced last year. The most recent stress test results further reaffirmed our durable business model, and we announced a dividend increase of 11% and a $20 billion multiyear repurchase authorization.

我們的補充槓桿率為5.4%。在第二季度，我們完成了去年宣布的 120 億美元的回購計劃。最近的壓力測試結果進一步證實了我們持久的商業模式，我們宣布股息增長 11% 和 200 億美元的多年回購授權。

Looking ahead, while the second half of the year remains difficult to predict, we are focused on our underlying business drivers. Lower asset values will impact revenue in both Wealth and Investment Management. However, in Wealth Management, rising rates are already driving NII higher, supporting performance. And net new assets remain healthy in Investment Management.

展望未來，雖然下半年仍然難以預測，但我們專注於我們的潛在業務驅動力。較低的資產價值將影響財富和投資管理的收入。然而，在財富管理領域，利率上升已經推動 NII 走高，從而支撐業績。投資管理中的淨新資產保持健康。

The diversification across fund strategies should continue to support results. What we do not know is how much volatility we will see in the coming months and how it will impact our Institutional Securities business. However, our competitive positions remain strong, and we remain close to our clients while they assess current valuations and the overall environment.

跨基金策略的多樣化應繼續支持結果。我們不知道未來幾個月我們會看到多少波動，以及它將如何影響我們的機構證券業務。然而，我們的競爭地位依然強勁，在客戶評估當前估值和整體環境時，我們與客戶保持密切聯繫。

With that, we will now open the line up for questions.

有了這個，我們現在將打開問題隊列。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Christian Bolu with Autonomous.

（操作員說明）我們將回答 Christian Bolu with Autonomous 的第一個問題。

Maybe start on the macro. James, it's a very confusing time on the macro front, and there are some positives but a ton of headwinds. I have to say, this quarter was unusually noisy for Morgan Stanley, and I think you kind of put up your lowest ROE in almost 2 years.

也許從宏開始。詹姆斯，在宏觀方面，這是一個非常令人困惑的時期，有一些積極的一面，但也有很多不利因素。我不得不說，這個季度對摩根士丹利來說異常嘈雜，我認為你的 ROE 是近 2 年來最低的。

So just curious, how you are thinking about the macro backdrop? How is MS positioned for that backdrop? Maybe how you think about your pathway to achieve some of your longer-term targets in the current backdrop? Thanks.

所以只是好奇，你是如何看待宏觀背景的？ MS 在這種背景下是如何定位的？也許您如何看待在當前背景下實現某些長期目標的途徑？謝謝。

Sure. Thanks, Christian. I think you hit it on the head. The environment -- if I had to use one word to describe it, it would be 'complicated'. We have the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, obviously, a historic occasion. We have historically low rates, with very significant rate increases going around the world. We've got the tail of COVID.

當然。謝謝，克里斯蒂安。我想你打在頭上了。環境——如果我必須用一個詞來形容它，那就是“複雜”。顯然，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭是一個歷史性的時刻。我們的利率處於歷史低位，全球利率大幅上漲。我們有新冠病毒的尾巴。

We've got obviously the fears of inflation and actual inflation. We've got enormous political change just here in this country, the U.K., where I am at the moment, they had a leadership change a few days ago, supply chain issues, China U.S. relations, et cetera. So yes, very complicated.

我們顯然對通貨膨脹和實際通貨膨脹感到擔憂。我們在英國這個國家發生了巨大的政治變化，我現在在那裡，幾天前他們的領導層發生了變化，供應鏈問題，中美關係等等。所以是的，非常複雜。

I think it's important to say, though, it is not 2008 complicated. This is a different type of financial stress in the system. And frankly, the banking sector is much stronger than it was going into the last time we went through a major reset in '07, '08. Morgan Stanley is in particular -- I won't speak for others, but we're in specifically much better shape.

不過，我認為重要的是要說，2008 年的情況並不復雜。這是系統中不同類型的財務壓力。坦率地說，銀行業比我們上次在 07 年和 08 年進行重大重置時要強大得多。摩根士丹利尤其如此——我不會代表其他人說話，但我們的狀況特別好。

We're long the U.S. in our businesses, largely because Wealth Management is almost entirely U.S., and the U.S. is yet again sort of a great region to be in, in the world.

我們長期在美國開展業務，主要是因為財富管理幾乎完全是美國的，而美國再次成為世界上一個偉大的地區。

And yes, while we might head into some form of recession and I, like many of others, have tried to handicap it, but we're, frankly, guessing at this stage. But I think it's unlikely to be a deep and dramatic recession, at least in the U.S.

是的，雖然我們可能會陷入某種形式的衰退，但我和其他許多人一樣，試圖阻止它，但坦率地說，我們在這個階段是在猜測。但我認為這不太可能是一場深度而劇烈的衰退，至少在美國是這樣。

I think Asia is a little behind. It depends how COVID rolls out, and it's sort of reemerging a little bit in some countries. And then Europe is obviously -- is fighting the hardest right now because of the war in the Ukraine, because of the pressure on gas and gas prices and so on.

我認為亞洲有點落後。這取決於 COVID 如何推出，並且在某些國家/地區有點重新出現。然後，由於烏克蘭的戰爭，由於天然氣和天然氣價格的壓力等等，歐洲顯然是目前戰鬥最激烈的。

So when I look at Morgan Stanley, that sort of added all together, we did exactly what we wanted to do this quarter. Yes, it's the lowest ROE for a couple of years after, I think, 3 consecutive record years, but hey, this is the most difficult environment we've been in, in decades.

因此，當我查看摩根士丹利時，將所有這些加在一起，我們確實做了我們本季度想做的事情。是的，這是幾年來最低的 ROE，我認為，連續 3 年創紀錄的年份，但是嘿，這是幾十年來我們所處的最困難的環境。

So I'm okay with the lower ROE, particularly when it has a ten-handle on it. We have -- CET1 capital ratio is 200 basis points above our requirement. Our ROTCE was nearly 14%.

所以我對較低的 ROE 沒意見，特別是當它有十個手柄的時候。我們有——CET1 資本比率高於我們的要求 200 個基點。我們的 ROTCE 接近 14%。

If you look at the Wealth Management margins, we did a 27% margin, including integration this quarter, 28% without it. Those numbers were unheard of a few years ago.

如果你看一下財富管理的利潤率，我們的利潤率為 27%，包括本季度的整合，沒有整合的利潤率為 28%。這些數字在幾年前是聞所未聞的。

So you add it all together, the environment, very complicated, lots of uncertainty. But frankly, for our business model, I think we fare relatively well. And evidence of that is our confidence in the future, and I'm sure we'll talk about that in terms of capital and so on.

所以你把它們加在一起，環境，非常複雜，有很多不確定性。但坦率地說，對於我們的商業模式，我認為我們的表現相對較好。這就是我們對未來的信心的證據，我相信我們會在資本等方面討論這一點。

Okay. Maybe, Sharon, some more specifics around the buyback. Just thinking about how you're thinking about buybacks in the second half of the year. I mean your CET1 did grow quarter-over-quarter, but I think a little bit of that was RWA declining.

好的。也許，Sharon，關於回購的更多細節。想想你如何考慮下半年的回購。我的意思是您的 CET1 確實比上一季度有所增長，但我認為其中的一部分是 RWA 下降。

It looks like actually CET1 dollars are still falling -- have been falling for a while. So I don't know, can you maintain the sort of $2.7 billion-ish buyback per quarter, going forward? Or any more specifics around how long it will take to exhaust that $20 billion in buybacks you announced?

看起來實際上 CET1 美元仍在下跌——已經下跌了一段時間。所以我不知道，你能保持每季度 27 億美元左右的回購嗎？或者關於你宣布的 200 億美元回購需要多長時間才能用完的更多細節？

Well, multiyear, obviously, means more than 1 year. So sort of just to put that in perspective. But I think that the most important thing about the buyback and also the capital, more broadly, is we've been very prudent and efficient around our capital usage. I think that we've always said that capital is very much tied to strategy. They're one and the same. And so we think about them holistically.

嗯，很明顯，多年意味著超過 1 年。所以有點只是為了正確看待這一點。但我認為，關於回購和資本最重要的事情，更廣泛地說，是我們在資本使用方面一直非常謹慎和高效。我認為我們一直說資本與戰略息息相關。他們是一回事。所以我們從整體上考慮它們。

When we think specifically about the buyback and the concept of a multiyear repurchase plan, right, 2 points: one, we did complete our old authorization. So therefore, we had announced a new authorization.

當我們具體考慮回購和多年回購計劃的概念時，對，有兩點：第一，我們確實完成了我們的舊授權。因此，我們宣布了一項新的授權。

And in addition to that, the point is we provide ourselves with tremendous flexibility in an environment such as this one, where there are, as James said, multiple macroeconomic factors but also a commitment to continue to return capital to those shareholders, be that both in the -- evidenced by the increase in the dividend.

除此之外，關鍵是我們在這樣的環境中為自己提供了巨大的靈活性，正如詹姆斯所說，在這種環境中存在多種宏觀經濟因素，但也承諾繼續向這些股東返還資本，無論是在 - 股息的增加證明了這一點。

And I think that what we're looking for is really -- is flexibility around the capital repurchase plan.

而且我認為我們正在尋找的實際上是圍繞資本回購計劃的靈活性。

I just want to add something. I mean, it was an important move to $20 billion number. And we said multiyear for a reason. Obviously, we're not going to do that in 1 year, but we have enormous flexibility quarter-to-quarter now, and that's really important. And with 200 basis points of capital excess, we can use some of that flexibility.

我只是想補充一點。我的意思是，這是向 200 億美元數字邁出的重要一步。我們說多年是有原因的。顯然，我們不會在 1 年內做到這一點，但我們現在每個季度都有很大的靈活性，這非常重要。有了 200 個基點的資本過剩，我們可以利用其中的一些靈活性。

Listen, the stock trade -- I don't know what it is this morning, $72 or something, it was $109 a couple of months ago. I like buying the stock at $72. And by the way, every time you buy a share at $72, your retiring dividend worth $3.10. So there's a sort of virtuous circle.

聽著，股票交易——我不知道今天早上是什麼，72 美元或什麼的，幾個月前是 109 美元。我喜歡以 72 美元的價格買入這隻股票。順便說一句，每次你以 72 美元的價格購買股票，你的退休紅利就價值 3.10 美元。所以有一種良性循環。

If we bought back -- we're averaging about 6% of shares outstanding net, we're buying back plus a 4% dividend, shareholders getting great return without getting out of bed. So this is a statement of confidence of, A, our capital position; and, B, the resilience of our business model.

如果我們回購——我們平均約 6% 的流通股淨額，我們回購加上 4% 的股息，股東無需起床就能獲得豐厚的回報。因此，這是對我們的資本狀況 A 的信心聲明； B，我們商業模式的彈性。

We'll take our next question from Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

我們將向 Evercore 的 Glenn Schorr 提出我們的下一個問題。

Maybe just a follow-on on the buyback convo and broaden it out. When you look across all the big GSIBs, lots have higher -- I'm sorry, lots of the GSIBs, lots have higher GSIB buffers coming capital deficiency to their targets and don't have the excess that you have. So I get it, buyback cheap stock is great.

也許只是回購車隊的後續行動並將其擴大。當您查看所有大型 GSIB 時，很多 GSIB 都更高——我很抱歉，很多 GSIB，很多 GSIB 緩衝更高，它們的目標資本不足，並且沒有你所擁有的過剩。所以我明白了，回購廉價股票很棒。

Are there any other options that you ponder, like maybe using that capital to grow share in any parts of the business or just save it for rainy day? Like I'm curious on how that dynamic works, being one of the only ones with the excess position.

您是否還有其他選擇，例如可能使用這筆資金來增加業務任何部分的份額，或者只是將其保存以備不時之需？就像我很好奇這種動態是如何運作的一樣，我是唯一擁有過多頭寸的人之一。

Well, it's -- Glenn, this is sort of the ultimate question. We've built through a decade of, frankly, hard work and discipline a great excess capital position. Not for nothing. Along the way, we did two major acquisitions. So we're using it on deals in two small ones, Solium and Mesa West, you recall, the majors, of course, E*TRADE and Eaton Vance.

嗯，這是——格倫，這是一個終極問題。坦率地說，我們通過十年的辛勤工作和紀律建立了一個巨大的過剩資本頭寸。一無是處。在此過程中，我們進行了兩次重大收購。所以我們在兩個小交易中使用它，Solium 和 Mesa West，你還記得，專業的，當然是 E*TRADE 和 Eaton Vance。

We've taken the dividend. Last year, we doubled the dividend. And this year, we took it up another 11%. It wasn't so long ago, our dividend was $0.05 a quarter. The incremental change this year is $0.075 a quarter. So we've used it on that.

我們已經分紅了。去年，我們將股息翻了一番。今年，我們又增加了 11%。不久前，我們的股息是每季度 0.05 美元。今年的增量變化是每季度 0.075 美元。所以我們在上面使用了它。

We're investing in the business everywhere, particularly around the workplace retirement space. We've invested in the digital bank and building out the wealth space. We've invested in asset management and our capability, and we're going to be doing more of that, taking the Eaton Vance funds internationally, expanding the Parametric program.

我們在各地投資業務，尤其是在工作場所的退休空間。我們投資了數字銀行並建立了財富空間。我們已經投資於資產管理和我們的能力，我們將在這方面做更多的事情，將伊頓萬斯的基金帶到國際上，擴大參數計劃。

And then we're investing in banking. I mean, obviously, the banking calendar has been terrible the last few months, but that's not -- we're interested in the next 10 years, not the last few months.

然後我們投資銀行業。我的意思是，很明顯，過去幾個月的銀行日曆一直很糟糕，但事實並非如此——我們對未來 10 年感興趣，而不是過去幾個月。

So the only thing we haven't done with excess capital is do a special dividend. And that's something I'm just personally not a fan of. I just don't -- I think it's like giving shareholders a problem and saying, we don't know what to do with their money. "Here, you take it."

因此，我們唯一沒有對過剩資本做的事情就是派發特別股息。這就是我個人不喜歡的東西。我只是不 - 我認為這就像給股東一個問題並說，我們不知道如何處理他們的錢。 “來，你拿著。”

So what we like to do with our money? Invest it in the business, check; give you a smart dividend with a 4% yield, check; and do buybacks and have flexibility around it when the stock is trading. At the beginning of the year, for every x dollars we spent, we've got 4 shares retired. Now we're retiring 5 shares. I like that.

那麼我們喜歡用我們的錢做什麼呢？將其投資於業務，檢查；以 4% 的收益率為您提供明智的股息，檢查；並在股票交易時進行回購併具有靈活性。今年年初，我們每花 x 美元，就有 4 股股票被退休。現在我們將淘汰 5 股。我喜歡。

Cool. I appreciate all that, James. A follow-up on Wealth Management. Sharon, you gave color on new money coming into which types of accounts and new clients. I'm curious, what are they doing with it?

涼爽的。我很感激這一切，詹姆斯。財富管理的後續行動。 Sharon，您對進入哪些類型的賬戶和新客戶的新資金進行了說明。我很好奇，他們用它做什麼？

In other words, is it sitting in cash? Are cash positions higher than they usually are? What products are they going to?

換句話說，它是現金嗎？現金頭寸是否比平時高？他們打算做什麼產品？

And then thirdly, you're the largest gatherer of alternative assets. Has this market brought any noticeable impact to that opportunity on the wealth channel?

第三，你是另類資產的最大收集者。這個市場是否對財富渠道上的機會帶來了任何明顯的影響？

Sure. Let me start with the last. No, no change in opportunity. I think we continue to actually work very closely with different alternative managers as we go forward and think about -- educate FAs, educate FAs, educate their clients and use that relationship to continue to create the right products for our clients, all based on education through both channels.

當然。讓我從最後一個開始。不，機會沒有變化。我認為，在我們前進和思考的過程中，我們將繼續與不同的替代經理密切合作——教育 FA，教育 FA，教育他們的客戶，並利用這種關係繼續為我們的客戶創造合適的產品，所有這些都基於教育通過這兩個渠道。

In terms of what are they doing with that money, I think what you do see is a lot of the money ends up moving into fee-based over time, right? So look at the fact that we aggregated all these net new assets over recent quarters, that first often does come into the system as cash when they're brought over. And then that cash is then deployed into various types of fee-based asset accounts.

就他們用這筆錢做了什麼而言，我認為你所看到的是，隨著時間的推移，很多錢最終會轉向收費，對吧？因此，看看我們在最近幾個季度匯總了所有這些淨新資產的事實，當它們被帶入時，它們首先通常會以現金的形式進入系統。然後將這些現金部署到各種類型的收費資產賬戶中。

I think it's worth noting and just repeating that those fee-based assets are now 50% of our adviser-led channel and those assets, which is a big move from those somewhat 40s, low 40s that we had seen in previous years.

我認為值得一提的是，這些收費資產現在占我們顧問主導渠道和這些資產的 50%，這與我們前幾年看到的 40 多歲、40 多歲的低點相比是一個很大的進步。

In terms of very specifically what we've seen over the course of the first half of this year in terms of different types of products, we were sitting at the end of the fourth quarter with cash levels at around 17% to 18% around the self-directed and the advice-based channel. We're now at around 21%.

就我們今年上半年在不同類型產品方面所看到的非常具體而言，我們在第四季度末的現金水平約為 17% 至 18% 左右自我導向和基於建議的渠道。我們現在大約是 21%。

Of course, that could be reflective of some of the equity asset values and the other asset values coming down to increase. But there is somewhat -- there is a pause, I think. People are waiting and observing in certain markets to deploy that cash. And I think that, that's just -- you can see that in the transactional coming down a bit and DARTs coming down a bit.

當然，這可能反映了一些股權資產價值和其他資產價值下降並增加。但是有一點——我認為有一個停頓。人們在某些市場上等待和觀察以部署這些現金。我認為，這只是 - 你可以看到交易量下降了一點，DARTs 下降了一點。

But I don't want to suggest that the engagement isn't there because we still are at levels where our engagement is thought about by some of those DART metrics. And just what we've seen in transactional, it's still higher than levels where we were from a prepandemic basis. So people are engaged, people are active, and they are seeking advice from their FAs.

但我不想暗示參與度不存在，因為我們仍處於某些 DART 指標考慮參與度的水平。就像我們在交易中看到的那樣，它仍然高於我們在大流行前的水平。所以人們參與其中，人們很活躍，他們正在向他們的 FA 尋求建議。

We'll take our next question from Steve Chubak with Wolfe Research.

我們將向 Wolfe Research 的 Steve Chubak 提出下一個問題。

So I wanted to ask a follow-up question on the deposit outlook. As you noted in the prepared remarks, just lots of cross-currents this quarter on the deposit side, tax seasonality, cash sorting and maybe some offset from higher market volatility.

所以我想問一個關於存款前景的後續問題。正如您在準備好的評論中所指出的那樣，本季度在存款方面存在大量交叉流，稅收季節性，現金分類，可能會抵消較高的市場波動性。

And given the NII guidance, Sharon, that you had laid out, I was hoping you could speak to what you're assuming for deposit betas and the deposit growth trajectory, given the myopic focus on cash sorting and recognizing that you already laid out some pretty explicit guidance on the loan growth side.

鑑於 NII 指導，Sharon，你已經制定了，我希望你能談談你對存款 beta 和存款增長軌蹟的假設，因為短視關注現金分類並認識到你已經制定了一些關於貸款增長方面的非常明確的指導。

I think what you just noted at the very end is very important because all of this is weighted into that NII forecast, right? Deposit beta is just one piece of that conversation, the behavior, and then also how we continue to build in an aggregate, be it new assets through NNA and also various types of, as you call it, cash sorting, but the movements of cash between products and that behavior of deposits.

我認為您在最後提到的內容非常重要，因為所有這些都計入了 NII 預測，對嗎？存款測試版只是對話的一部分，行為，以及我們如何繼續構建一個聚合體，無論是通過 NNA 的新資產，還是各種類型的，如你所說的現金分類，但現金的流動產品與存款行為之間的關係。

Specific to your question around the beta, as we've said, we are informed by the last rate hike cycle, and it does have to do with the weighted beta at 50, which I had noted last quarter, and we'll just reiterate again this quarter. There really has to do with the deposit composition mix that we have.

具體到你關於貝塔的問題，正如我們所說，我們是從上次加息週期中得知的，它確實與我在上個季度提到的 50 的加權貝塔有關，我們將重申本季度再次。這確實與我們擁有的存款組成組合有關。

So we have, obviously, still accumulated very increased levels on those smaller accounts with smaller account levels. And we might have other accounts where we've seen larger inflows into larger accounts, right?

因此，顯然，我們仍然在那些具有較小帳戶級別的較小帳戶上積累了非常多的級別。我們可能還有其他賬戶，我們已經看到更大的資金流入更大的賬戶，對吧？

So account balances that are higher, might also have gone up over time. And that helps to explain the deposit beta, which we see now, based again, as I said, on that deposit composition mix.

因此，較高的賬戶餘額也可能隨著時間的推移而增加。這有助於解釋我們現在看到的存款貝塔，正如我所說，它再次基於存款組成組合。

It will not just be, though, of course, around deposit beta. A lot that is embedded into the forecast, as I said, has to do with how we see those deposit behavior moving over time. And again, a lot of that is informed by what we saw in the last rate hike cycle.

當然，它不僅僅是圍繞存款測試版。正如我所說，預測中包含的很多內容與我們如何看待這些存款行為隨時間的變化有關。再一次，我們在上一次加息週期中看到的情況表明了其中的很大一部分。

Very helpful color, Sharon. And maybe just a follow-up on the earlier discussion on organic growth. I mean the 4% number, which, considering the more pronounced tax seasonality, elevated market volatility, was certainly an impressive result.

非常有用的顏色，莎朗。也許只是對早先關於有機增長的討論的跟進。我的意思是 4% 的數字，考慮到更明顯的稅收季節性和市場波動加劇，這無疑是一個令人印象深刻的結果。

If the market volatility persists, should we view this as a reasonable floor on organic growth? And I was also hoping you could just speak to the cadence of flows from April to June, just to give us a sense as to how organic growth is trajecting over the course of the quarter.

如果市場波動持續存在，我們是否應該將其視為有機增長的合理下限？我也希望你能談談從 4 月到 6 月的流動節奏，讓我們了解本季度有機增長的軌跡。

Well, the cadence is obviously -- you're not going to -- you've seen more in the second quarter -- I mean you've seen a different mix, right, in the second 2 months than the first month because you had a tax outflow season. So that kind of gives you the change in those two numbers.

嗯，節奏顯然是——你不會——你在第二季度看到了更多——我的意思是你在第二個兩個月看到了與第一個月不同的組合，因為你有一個稅收外流季節。所以那種給你這兩個數字的變化。

I think what we have seen is a continue -- you have a lot that comes in from a flow-based basis is just -- if you think about workplace, you're going to see that development and continue -- as people have exercised their options, they continue to move forward. So there are various types of offsets.

我認為我們看到的是一種繼續——你有很多來自基於流程的基礎——如果你考慮工作場所，你會看到這種發展並繼續——正如人們所練習的那樣他們的選擇，他們繼續前進。所以有各種類型的偏移量。

I think what's important as we look forward, in terms of where is the floor, look, we've said historically, we don't expect to be in that very low single-digit range, which we were before the acquisition of E*TRADE. We said that 11% was too high. So that kind of gave you that middle range.

我認為在我們向前看時重要的是，就地板在哪里而言，看，我們在歷史上說過，我們不希望處於非常低的個位數範圍內，我們在收購 E* 之前就是這樣貿易。我們說 11% 太高了。所以那種給了你中等範圍。

Exactly how it will pan out? What I can say to you is that it does look -- it's still healthy, and we're still -- we still feel well positioned.

究竟會如何發展？我可以對你說的是，它看起來確實——它仍然很健康，而且我們仍然——我們仍然感覺自己處於有利位置。

As it relates specifically to other indicators that you might think about -- for example, recruiting. When -- the recruiting pipeline remains healthy. And what we often see and -- tactically, anecdotally is when those recruits come over, they will be -- they could be in a market volatility event actually be quicker to begin to bring those assets that were held away into the channel.

因為它與您可能考慮的其他指標特別相關——例如，招聘。何時——招聘渠道保持健康。而且我們經常看到 - 從戰術上講，當這些新兵過來時，他們會 - 他們可能會在市場波動事件中更快地開始將那些被保留的資產帶入渠道。

Why? Because they're seeking to be with their FA through that advice-led channel more immediately. So as you called it, there are cross-currents. And I think they're important to bear in mind in this environment.

為什麼？因為他們正在尋求通過以建議為主導的渠道更直接地與他們的 FA 聯繫。所以正如你所說，有交叉電流。我認為在這種環境中牢記它們很重要。

We'll take our next question from Dan Fannon with Jefferies.

我們將回答 Dan Fannon 和 Jefferies 的下一個問題。

Wanted to follow up on Investment Management and the fee outlook. You have, obviously, beta working against you in some of your higher-fee products, but you have fee waivers coming off on the money market side. So as you think about mix and client behavior, going forward, how do you think about the fee rate in that business longer term?

希望跟進投資管理和費用前景。很明顯，你在一些收費較高的產品中存在對你不利的測試版，但你在貨幣市場方面有費用減免。因此，當您考慮組合和客戶行為時，您如何看待該業務長期的費率？

It's a great question. I'm sure you'll see the disclosure also that will come out in the Q specifically for this business. But just to give you a sense, the fee rates themselves haven't changed. What changes -- what has changed is the mix of the actual flows themselves.

這是一個很好的問題。我相信您也會在 Q 中看到專門針對該業務的披露。但只是為了給你一個感覺，費率本身並沒有改變。發生了什麼變化——變化的是實際流量本身的混合。

So we've seen a decrease over the course of the last 2 quarters in some of those equity accounts, for example, which, as is disclosed, could be higher -- can have higher fees. But what we have seen is an increase in balances in things like liquidity, where we're now not seeing the fee waivers since we've moved off that zero bound floor.

因此，我們已經看到在過去兩個季度中，其中一些股票賬戶有所減少，例如，正如所披露的那樣，這些賬戶可能會更高——可能會產生更高的費用。但是我們看到的是流動性等方面的餘額增加，因為我們已經離開了零限制，我們現在沒有看到費用減免。

We had given you previous guidance of $200 million that we expected to see as an incremental fee positive over the course of the year as those waivers went away because rates came off of that zero bound. We stand behind that guidance, and you've continued to see that flow into the numbers.

我們之前為您提供了 2 億美元的指導，我們預計隨著這些豁免消失，因為費率脫離了零界限，我們預計將在一年中看到增加的費用正數。我們支持該指導，並且您繼續看到它流入數字中。

I think, though, what is important is, obviously, where could you see things change, is the liquidity balances, right? It's a rate time balance question, as I said before.

不過，我認為重要的是，很明顯，你可以看到情況在哪裡發生變化，流動性餘額是什麼，對嗎？正如我之前所說，這是一個費率時間平衡問題。

And the balance is, in this case, I think, a testament to the amount of time and the investment we've put into this business to find relationships also across the integrated investment, bank where we've worked with partners in Institutional Securities, for example, to help forge relationships that will help bring in some of those deposits into those money market products.

在這種情況下，我認為餘額證明了我們在這項業務中投入的時間和投資，以在我們與機構證券合作夥伴合作的綜合投資銀行中尋找關係，例如，幫助建立有助於將部分存款引入貨幣市場產品的關係。

Great. And then just as a follow-up, given the backdrop we're in, where revenues are a bit more challenged or uncertain. As you think about non-comp expense, and you highlighted being focused on this area and being efficient, but have you proactively started to make decisions around spend and cutting back?

偉大的。然後作為後續行動，鑑於我們所處的背景，收入面臨更多挑戰或不確定性。當您考慮非補償費用時，您強調要專注於該領域並提高效率，但是您是否主動開始圍繞支出和削減做出決策？

Or as you think about that flexibility in the back half of the year, is there a way to quantify levels of growth or lack thereof and any changes?

或者當您考慮下半年的靈活性時，有沒有辦法量化增長水平或缺乏增長水平以及任何變化？

So the first point that I would highlight to you is that ex integration, our efficiency ratio is at 7%, and that includes the legal charge that James mentioned this quarter.

因此，我要向您強調的第一點是前整合，我們的效率率為 7%，其中包括詹姆斯本季度提到的法律指控。

So I think we have shown and continue to demonstrate discipline around our expense base, very similar to the way we think about capital. Resources, we think about it very holistically and part of our strategic decision-making process.

所以我認為我們已經並繼續在我們的支出基礎上表現出紀律，這與我們對資本的看法非常相似。資源，我們非常全面地考慮它，並且是我們戰略決策過程的一部分。

As we walked into the second quarter, we were aware that the environment was changing, and we all had been seeing the same events that -- we've all witnessed together as it relates to the geopolitical front and the macro side.

當我們進入第二季度時，我們意識到環境正在發生變化，我們都看到了同樣的事件——我們都共同目睹了與地緣政治戰線和宏觀方面有關的事件。

And we came in and we took a look -- a hard look and we continue to do so, individual product by product, investment by investment, project by project to understand where are the potential growth in expenses coming from, how are we thinking about balancing, as James said, that near-term investment, making sure that we need to get done certain things.

我們進來並進行了查看-仔細查看，我們繼續這樣做，逐個產品，逐個投資，逐個項目，以了解費用的潛在增長來自哪裡，我們如何考慮正如詹姆斯所說，平衡短期投資，確保我們需要完成某些事情。

We always need to ensure that as we invest also with a longer-term horizon, the right controls are in place as we continue to grow the business efficiently, but are there projects that can be delayed that we might be doing on the margin? So I'd say that, that work is in flight, has been in flight. It's not new information, and it's certainly something that we're keeping our eyes on.

我們始終需要確保在我們進行長期投資時，在我們繼續有效地發展業務的過程中採取正確的控制措施，但是是否有可能會延遲的項目我們可能會在邊際上進行？所以我想說，這項工作正在進行中，一直在進行中。這不是新信息，而且肯定是我們一直在關注的事情。

We'll take our next question from Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

我們將向美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala 提出下一個問題。

Just one more follow-up on the Institutional Securities business. So you talked about market share opportunities, which you clearly have. Would love to hear your thoughts around just the health of -- one, how is the plumbing in the capital market functioning? We saw a bunch of headlines around hung deals, et cetera, during the quarter. So just how are clients holding up on the institutional side?

只是機構證券業務的另一項後續行動。所以你談到了市場份額機會，你顯然擁有。很想听聽您對健康狀況的看法——第一，資本市場的管道是如何運作的？在本季度，我們看到了大量關於掛起交易等的頭條新聞。那麼客戶在機構方面的表現如何？

And given how strong the franchise already is on the Prime Brokerage side, is there more opportunity there? I realize that was a big driver of the growth this quarter. So would love to hear your thoughts.

鑑於大宗經紀業務方面的特許經營權已經如此強大，那裡還有更多機會嗎？我意識到這是本季度增長的一大推動力。所以很想听聽你的想法。

The -- from -- basically, in terms of the capital market functioning, as James said, this is not -- we're not in a position of the same kind of stress we've seen in other necessary cycles. We're still seeing functioning markets. You can see that in just some of the funded balance points that I made across the ISG portfolio, in terms of funded balances being at 11% versus even the pandemic, we have seen those balances up to 25%.

正如詹姆斯所說，基本上，就資本市場運作而言，這不是 - 我們沒有處於我們在其他必要周期中看到的那種壓力的位置。我們仍然看到運作良好的市場。您可以看到，僅在我在 ISG 投資組合中所做的一些資金餘額點中，資金餘額為 11%，甚至與大流行相比，我們看到這些餘額高達 25%。

So I would certainly say that you see institutions that are in a good place. I also think, from a corporate perspective, it is worth noting that many came into this from an environmental perspective in a much better position than they have before because they did issue and were in a good spot from a balance sheet perspective in the period of low rates that you saw over the course of last year.

所以我肯定會說，你看到了處於良好位置的機構。我還認為，從企業的角度來看，值得注意的是，許多人從環境的角度來看，比以前處於更好的位置，因為他們確實發行了，並且從資產負債表的角度來看，在您在去年看到的低利率。

Of course, there are days where it's more difficult to come to market. That is very clear as you see that in the underwriting results. So just to provide that balance, of course, it's not the same thing as having a green screen every single day.

當然，也有更難上市的日子。正如您在承保結果中看到的那樣，這一點非常清楚。因此，為了提供這種平衡，當然，這與每天都有綠屏不同。

But I think that you are seeing both institutions and corporations, et cetera, taking advantage of days where the market is open, and they are able to do that. And from that perspective, the market is functioning.

但我認為你看到機構和公司等都在利用市場開放的日子，他們能夠做到這一點。從這個角度來看，市場正在發揮作用。

As it relates to Prime Brokerage, we've been very balanced in that business. I think we've been a tremendous leader in that business. And we continue to effectively look for the relationships that we're well suited for, both in this environment that makes sense to partner with clients.

由於它與大宗經紀業務有關，我們在該業務中一直非常平衡。我認為我們一直是該行業的傑出領導者。我們繼續有效地尋找我們非常適合的關係，無論是在這種與客戶合作有意義的環境中。

You see that on the balance side. You see that on the revenue side. And you see that the mix also matters to us. And so from that perspective, we've been very focused on the equities business more holistically for over a decade now.

你在平衡方面看到了這一點。你在收入方面看到了這一點。你會發現混合對我們也很重要。因此，從這個角度來看，十多年來，我們一直非常專注於更全面的股票業務。

And just on the fixed income. So appreciate that you all rightsized the business a few years ago. Like given the capital constraints that your peers -- does it make sense maybe, James or Sharon, to like lean in and revisit areas where you could actually pick up share on the fixed income side or no?

就在固定收益上。因此，感謝你們幾年前對業務進行了適當的調整。就像考慮到你的同行的資本限制一樣——詹姆斯或莎倫，喜歡精益求精並重新審視你實際上可以在固定收益方面獲得份額的領域是否有意義？

Listen, there's always opportunities to -- an environment where you can try and pick up share. We're in a bit of an uncertain world, as I opened with. I don't think this is the time to be overly aggressive, personally. I like the fact we have excess capital. I like where our CET1 ratio is.

聽著，總有機會——一個你可以嘗試分享的環境。正如我開頭所說，我們處於一個有點不確定的世界中。我個人認為現在不是過於激進的時候。我喜歡我們擁有過剩資本的事實。我喜歡我們的 CET1 比率。

Obviously, as you drive up RWAs, you weed into that. We actually brought up RWAs down by $40 billion this quarter. I think the institutional team, in both fixed income and equities, were very prudent and appropriately so.

顯然，當您提高風險加權資產時，您會對此進行除草。實際上，本季度我們將 RWA 降低了 400 億美元。我認為機構團隊，無論是固定收益還是股票，都非常謹慎和恰當。

So listen, if the option is to trigger another 50 basis points on the SCB or generate another, I don't know, $100 million, $200 million in revenue, that for me is a very easy call right now. I like the 50 basis points that we haven't had to trigger that some of our competitors have.

所以聽著，如果選擇是在 SCB 上再觸發 50 個基點或產生另一個，我不知道，1 億美元，2 億美元的收入，對我來說現在是一個非常容易的決定。我喜歡我們的一些競爭對手所擁有的 50 個基點，我們不必觸發。

So listen, we'll be eyes wide open, but we're not trying to win the game right now. There's a -- the fixed income business has gone from doing, I don't know what they were doing, $500 million, $600 million a quarter in the back half of 2015.

所以聽著，我們會睜大眼睛，但我們現在不打算贏得比賽。有一個 - 固定收益業務已經不再做，我不知道他們在做什麼，5億美元，2015年下半年每季度6億美元。

And we're consistently -- somewhere between $1.75 billion and $3 billion, that's -- they've done a phenomenal job. They've materially gained share. I think we're around 10% share up from 6% or lower in those days, stable business, great leadership.

我們一直在 - 在 17.5 億美元到 30 億美元之間，那是 - 他們做得非常出色。他們在物質上獲得了份額。我認為我們的市場份額從當時的 6% 或更低提高了 10% 左右，業務穩定，領導力出色。

So yeah, we'll be opportunistic, but we're not going to be greedy.

所以，是的，我們會投機取巧，但我們不會貪婪。

We'll take our next question from Brennan Hawken with UBS.

我們將向瑞銀的布倫南霍肯提出我們的下一個問題。

I wanted to follow up on Steve's questions on deposit beta, but rather talk about the balance side of things. So the brokerage sweep deposits declined by about $30 billion this quarter. Sharon, I think you referenced that it -- that was driven by both tax payments but also some yield seeking.

我想跟進史蒂夫關於存款測試版的問題，而是談談事情的平衡方面。因此，本季度的經紀業務存款減少了約 300 億美元。 Sharon，我想你提到了它——這既是由納稅驅動的，也是一些尋求收益的驅動。

Could you maybe break that down a little bit? Or do you have a sense about what that attribution would be, just so we can kind of level set and think about how much further potential deposit -- deposit loss there could be from further yield seeking?

你能把它分解一下嗎？或者您是否知道該歸因是什麼，以便我們可以設置水平並考慮進一步的潛在存款 - 進一步尋求收益可能會導致存款損失？

Yes. I think the better -- I mean I think that 1 quarter would be a little bit difficult to kind of draw those conclusions.

是的。我認為更好 - 我的意思是我認為第一季度會有點難以得出這些結論。

I think the way I would think about it, Brennan, is a little bit differently, which is some of the questions I know we've received are, well, "why didn't your beta come down because you had E*TRADE?" And so those balances should be in a position where you should have an average weighted beta that's lower over time.

Brennan，我認為我的想法有點不同，我知道我們收到的一些問題是，嗯，“為什麼你的 beta 沒有下降，因為你有 E*TRADE？ "因此，這些餘額應該處於這樣一個位置，即隨著時間的推移，您的平均加權貝塔值應該會降低。

So I think the best way to kind of answer your question a little bit more head on in terms of where the underlying crux is, is we have seen balances also increase in the higher account level. It's built into the model.

因此，我認為就潛在癥結所在的問題更直接地回答您的問題的最佳方法是，我們已經看到餘額在更高的帳戶級別上也有所增加。它內置在模型中。

It's built into our expectations. It's built into the NII forecast. And we've said, as I said directly in my remarks, we also saw the deposit behavior very much in line with what we expected. And so it is working in terms of that predictability.

它內置在我們的期望中。它內置於 NII 預測中。我們已經說過，正如我在講話中直接說過的那樣，我們也看到存款行為非常符合我們的預期。因此，它在這種可預測性方面發揮了作用。

But why is the beta then higher? Some of that beta just has to do with -- you have some higher balances. Why? Because you accumulated them likely at periods of time where yields were lower, and there was excess cash that was sitting in position. And so some of that higher-balanced amount begins to leave, seeking out higher-yielding payments.

但是為什麼beta會更高呢？其中一些測試版只是與 - 你有一些更高的餘額有關。為什麼？因為你很可能在收益率較低的時期積累了它們，並且有多餘的現金在位。因此，一些較高餘額的金額開始離開，尋求更高收益的付款。

So I think that can help give you a little bit of construct in terms of what's going on from the balance perspective to more directly, I think, answer the question rather than just look at one quarter's behavior.

因此，我認為這可以幫助您從平衡的角度了解正在發生的事情，從而更直接地回答問題，而不僅僅是查看四分之一的行為。

Sure. Sure. Okay. That's fair. Thank you. And then, when we think about the SBL book, you flagged the $22 billion of continued loan growth. So it seems like you're expecting loan growth in the back half to be about half of what you saw in the first half, a little more than that but not by much. So -- and it makes sense, it would slow.

當然。當然。好的。這還算公平。謝謝你。然後，當我們想到 SBL 的書時，您提到了 220 億美元的持續貸款增長。因此，您似乎預計下半年的貸款增長約為上半年的一半，略高於這一數字，但幅度不大。所以——這是有道理的，它會變慢。

Can you talk about what we've seen, from an LTV perspective, in the SBL book and whether or not some of that slowing loan growth is going to reflect some -- maybe some SBL paydown?

您能否談談我們從 LTV 的角度在 SBL 書中看到的情況，以及貸款增長放緩中的一些是否會反映一些——也許是一些 SBL 償還？

Or is there the potential of some SBL reduction just because LTVs are getting high, and so there's going to need to be some of that just mechanically and maybe also how you manage those LTVs in these choppy market environments? (inaudible) part or so.

或者是否有可能僅僅因為 LTV 越來越高而減少 SBL，因此需要機械地進行一些這樣的操作，也許還需要在這些動蕩的市場環境中如何管理這些 LTV？ （聽不清）部分左右。

Yes. So the LTVs are very well managed. No, it's okay. It's okay. I'll just try to remember it all. So from the LTV perspective, as you would expect, we -- we're very much actually in line with where we've been from historical years. And the reason for that is it is a very well-managed book. And why any uptick at all, as you would expect, obviously, the value of the underlying has gone down. But from a historical basis, we've always been within that -- sort of given a 40 range or low 40 range, we're in that range, and we're very much, like I said, in line over the last couple of years.

是的。所以 LTV 管理得非常好。不，沒關係。沒關係。我會試著記住這一切。因此，從 LTV 的角度來看，正如你所料，我們 - 實際上與歷史年份的情況非常一致。原因是它是一本管理得非常好的書。以及為什麼會出現任何上漲，正如您所期望的那樣，很明顯，標的資產的價值已經下跌。但是從歷史的角度來看，我們一直在這個範圍內——給定一個 40 範圍或低 40 範圍，我們在那個範圍內，就像我說的那樣，我們在過去的幾個範圍內非常一致年。

Now, as it relates directly to what we're looking forward and seeing, I think what's important here is that from a mortgage perspective, you might see some slowing, just obviously given where rates are. Now, why would the SBLs come down? You just might not have as much interest or engagement in the product with lower asset values.

現在，由於它與我們所期待和看到的直接相關，我認為這裡重要的是，從抵押貸款的角度來看，你可能會看到一些放緩，這顯然是考慮到利率的水平。現在，為什麼 SBL 會下降？您可能對資產價值較低的產品沒有那麼大的興趣或參與度。

So I don't look at it in terms of, "Oh, there's a management issue," rather that is a very well-managed portfolio, where we haven't seen issues in a lot of different market environment with the calls from an operational perspective, more broadly, et cetera, but rather just the engagement from that relationship side, is this the right product to be using now?

所以我不會從“哦，有一個管理問題”的角度來看待它，而是一個管理良好的投資組合，我們在很多不同的市場環境中都沒有看到來自從運營角度，更廣泛地說，等等，而不僅僅是從關係方面的參與，這是現在使用的正確產品嗎？

You might not have those conversations as much with the asset values coming down. So a very practical answer to the question that you gave.

隨著資產價值下降，您可能不會進行這些對話。所以對你提出的問題有一個非常實際的答案。

We'll take our next question from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們將向富國證券的 Mike Mayo 提出下一個問題。

Just a follow-up on the loan growth. The $20 billion loan growth target from the start of the year, it looks like you're still looking at that. But how are you thinking about loss rates on those new loans, given perhaps a new economic forecast?

只是對貸款增長的跟進。從年初開始的 200 億美元貸款增長目標，看起來你還在考慮這個目標。但是，考慮到新的經濟預測，您如何看待這些新貸款的損失率？

We note that provisions for wealth losses are already tripled with the level of last year. Kind of what's the risk in that portfolio? And does it make sense to have a loan growth target? It's always easy to make loans. It's just tough to get paid back sometimes.

我們注意到，財富損失準備金已經比去年增加了兩倍。該投資組合的風險是什麼？設定貸款增長目標是否有意義？貸款總是很容易的。有時很難得到回報。

Yes. I think that those loans -- I mean, just in terms of -- it's more of an expectation to help people understand what the NII projection is. I wouldn't call it a target. To the point that was brought by Brennan, obviously, the expectations, on a quarter-over-quarter basis, have come down. So we did see some pull forward, and that's all we're reflecting in that.

是的。我認為這些貸款——我的意思是，就其而言——更多的是一種幫助人們理解 NII 預測的期望。我不會把它稱為目標。顯然，就布倫南提出的這一點而言，預期環比下降。所以我們確實看到了一些進步，這就是我們所反映的。

As you look at the provisions themselves, they still vary on a relative basis to other provisions across various -- both institutions, and even our Institutional Securities franchise is quite low.

當您查看條款本身時，它們仍然相對於各個機構的其他條款有所不同 - 兩個機構，甚至我們的機構證券特許經營權都相當低。

In terms of what drives that, as you know, it's all -- it is based on the CECL concept, in the life of loan concept. And as you also know, it is a complicated idea between both qualitative and a quantitative scenario. For us, as we disclosed in our Q, the factors that we look at that are most important is really around GDP.

如您所知，就驅動因素而言，這就是全部 - 它基於 CECL 概念，在貸款期限概念中。而且您也知道，這是一個介於定性和定量方案之間的複雜概念。對我們來說，正如我們在 Q 中所披露的，我們關注的最重要的因素實際上是 GDP。

We did see a degradation in the GDP expectations, very consistent with what's going on in the macroeconomic outlook. And we are expecting the recession that we've talked about, the probabilities are in the 50-50 range. And that's very consistent with also what we've said publicly.

我們確實看到 GDP 預期下降，這與宏觀經濟前景的情況非常一致。我們預計我們已經談到的衰退，概率在 50-50 範圍內。這也與我們公開所說的非常一致。

And so did you have any extra CECL provisions this quarter?

那麼本季度您是否有任何額外的 CECL 條款？

No. We're -- we feel appropriately reserved for where we are right now.

不，我們是——我們覺得為我們現在所處的位置保留了適當的位置。

We'll take our next question from Gerard Cassidy with RBC Capital Markets.

我們將回答加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Gerard Cassidy 的下一個問題。

Sharon, in the workplace channel, you guys had some good growth in the number of participants on a year-over-year basis, it was up 17%. The unvested asset values declined about 33%. Can you give us a little color? Was it primarily just market conditions bringing that down? Or is there something else there?

Sharon，在職場頻道，你們的參與者人數同比增長了 17%。未歸屬的資產價值下降了約 33%。你能給我們一點顏色嗎？主要是市場條件降低了它嗎？還是那裡有別的東西？

It's a great question, and you draw a good point distinction. No, those are just the value -- it's just the value of the assets themselves have gone down that those holders have. Now the increase in participants has a lot to do with the fact that we just continue -- as we continue to -- we mandate, we've seen that increase the number of participants.

這是一個很好的問題，你畫了一個很好的點區分。不，這些只是價值——只是那些持有者所擁有的資產本身的價值下降了。現在參與者的增加與我們只是繼續 - 隨著我們繼續 - 我們授權的事實有很大關係，我們已經看到參與者數量的增加。

What I would say in terms of just an opportunity, in terms of engaging with those clients is, obviously, it is a difficult time in environment for some of those individuals.

就機會而言，我想說的是，就與這些客戶互動而言，顯然，對於其中一些人來說，這是一個艱難的環境時期。

And we do -- we continue to educate and use financial wellness as a tool, especially in these environments, to explain the advice-driven model and provide us with an opportunity actually in this kind of environment to discuss what financial advice and what financial wellness is, specifically as people see different declines in their potential portfolio.

我們確實這樣做了——我們繼續教育和使用財務健康作為一種工具，尤其是在這些環境中，來解釋建議驅動的模型，並為我們提供一個在這種環境中實際討論什麼財務建議和什麼財務健康的機會是，特別是當人們看到他們的潛在投資組合出現不同程度的下降時。

Very good. And does -- do the assets skew to more new start-up companies that might be tech-orientated versus a more traditional industrial company or a stable company in those plans?

很好。資產是否偏向於更多可能以技術為導向的新初創公司，而不是那些計劃中的更傳統的工業公司或穩定的公司？

Skew -- there are -- there is a good portion, I would say, of technology companies that would be in that sector that you can see as you see those asset values declined, but there is a balance on the other side of different types of companies.

偏斜 - 我想說，當你看到這些資產價值下降時，你可以看到有很大一部分技術公司屬於該行業，但在不同類型的另一邊存在平衡的公司。

And as we win mandates, it's not just on the tech side. We're winning mandates across different institutions, especially as people better understand that financial wellness offering.

隨著我們贏得授權，這不僅僅是在技術方面。我們正在贏得不同機構的授權，尤其是當人們更好地了解金融健康產品時。

We'll take our next question from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

我們將回答德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor 的下一個問題。

Appreciate all the details on Slide 11 here, the allowance for credit losses. Maybe you've had it before, but it's more relevant now and good detail. If you had to kind of guesstimate in a moderate recession that $1.2 billion of total ACL, where does that go?

在這裡欣賞幻燈片 11 上的所有細節，即信用損失準備金。也許你以前有過它，但現在它更相關，細節也很好。如果你不得不在溫和的衰退中猜測總 ACL 的 12 億美元，那會去哪裡？

I think that is a very difficult question to answer. I think that what you can look at and think about it is, obviously, the economic scenario makes sense. The GDP makes sense. The size of the -- where the growth actually comes from and goes, and then there is some extension of duration that you can see, dependent on the rate rise expectations.

我認為這是一個非常難以回答的問題。我認為你可以看到和思考的是，顯然，經濟形勢是有道理的。 GDP是有道理的。增長的實際來源和去向的大小，然後你可以看到持續時間的一些延長，這取決於加息預期。

Okay. Any way to frame -- does it double or triple? Obviously, a lot of the loans are in Wealth Management, which is just not going to -- you would think have as much loss content. But any way to frame, numerically, how high it could go?

好的。任何構圖方式——它是兩倍還是三倍？顯然，很多貸款都在財富管理中，這不會——你會認為損失的內容一樣多。但是任何方式來構建，數字，它可以走多高？

Yes, I would...

是的，我會...

You know what I would do? I would say is, why don't you think about it as it relates to COVID, right? You can think about where we were from a COVID perspective. And so let's talk ISG specifically. The provisions this quarter are 82. It was almost 4x that when you think about where we were from a COVID perspective.

你知道我會怎麼做嗎？我想說的是，你為什麼不考慮一下它與 COVID 的關係，對吧？您可以從 COVID 的角度考慮我們所處的位置。因此，讓我們具體談談 ISG。本季度的準備金是 82。當您從 COVID 的角度考慮我們所處的位置時，幾乎是 4 倍。

I would just point out that -- sorry. I'd just point out that the Wealth Management piece, ACL percentage is 0.1. These are very different kinds of loans from traditional consumer banking loans. So you're just not going to see at least for that part of a major, major move.

我只想指出——對不起。我只想指出財富管理部分，ACL 百分比是 0.1。這些是與傳統消費銀行貸款截然不同的貸款類型。因此，您至少不會看到重大重大舉措的那一部分。

For the others, I think it's just -- you can't project. I mean who knows what kind of recession -- a recession might be, how long it might be and so on. But we manage this business conservatively, and we don't have a big traditional middle market, small business loan book. We just don't have that kind of business.

對於其他人，我認為這只是 - 你不能投射。我的意思是誰知道什麼樣的衰退——衰退可能是什麼，可能持續多長時間等等。但是我們保守地管理這個業務，我們沒有一個大的傳統中間市場，小企業貸款賬簿。我們只是沒有那種業務。

That's helpful. And then just a clarification question. The total DCP for the firm, you mentioned $515 million revenue impact in Wealth, but what's the firm-wide revenue and expense impact, please?

這很有幫助。然後只是一個澄清問題。公司的總 DCP，您提到了 5.15 億美元對財富的收入影響，但請問公司範圍內的收入和支出影響是什麼？

It's nonmaterial per business line, which is why we don't call out the number.

每個業務線都不重要，這就是我們不說出這個數字的原因。

The reason we called it out in Wealth, just to be clear, was Wealth actually had a great quarter. Revenue growth, new money growth, fee-based growth and margins year-over-year, the same at 27% in a very difficult environment.

我們在財富中稱其為明確的原因是財富實際上有一個很棒的季度。在非常困難的環境下，收入增長、新資金增長、收費增長和利潤率同比增長 27%。

So we thought it was kind of raining on the party a little bit that the DCP took $500 million off the top line number, even though it comes out of the comp expense number almost dollar for dollar, not quite. So that's why we called it out.

因此，我們認為 DCP 從最高收入中扣除了 5 億美元，這有點像下雨了，儘管它幾乎是從補償費用數字中得出的，幾乎是一美元一美元，不完全是。所以這就是我們叫它出來的原因。

Ordinarily, we wouldn't call out DCP. We don't make a big deal of it. It's kind of -- it's an accounting issue. It's not a business issue. So we're not often that excited about it.

通常，我們不會調用 DCP。我們不把它當回事。有點——這是一個會計問題。這不是商業問題。所以我們並不經常對此感到興奮。

But we just thought given you'd all be interested in how the retail investor was behaving right now and what was going on in that business and how panic they were, the short answer is not very, behaving well, business stable, saw growth. Hence, we wanted to call it out.

但我們只是認為，鑑於你們都對散戶投資者現在的行為方式以及該業務的情況以及他們的恐慌程度感興趣，簡短的回答不是很好，表現良好，業務穩定，看到了增長。因此，我們想把它叫出來。

We'll take our next question from Jim Mitchell with Seaport Global.

我們將回答 Seaport Global 的 Jim Mitchell 的下一個問題。

Maybe just on the RWA decline. Was that a deliberate reduction? Or is that more market-driven? And if somewhat -- some deliberate actions, can you kind of give us a little more clarity on what those actions were specifically and if that can continue?

也許只是 RWA 下降。這是故意減少嗎？還是更受市場驅動？如果有些 - 一些蓄意的行動，你能否讓我們更清楚地了解這些行動具體是什麼以及是否可以繼續？

Yes. It was both, is the way I would answer it. There are obviously market declines that had to do with it as well. But this was a very thoughtful use and thought approach around efficient uses of RWAs.

是的。兩者兼而有之，這就是我要回答的方式。顯然，市場下跌也與此有關。但這是圍繞有效使用風險加權資產的一種非常深思熟慮的使用和思考方法。

And where does it make sense from a business perspective, given the uncertainty. And I think there is a very -- as I said, the same way when we think about the expenses, it's about being efficient and thoughtful and very prudent and flexible with all of that environment. So it's both of those things that were taken into account when thinking about the RWA decline.

考慮到不確定性，從商業角度來看，這在哪裡有意義。而且我認為有一個非常 - 正如我所說的那樣，當我們考慮費用時，它是關於在所有環境中保持高效和周到以及非常謹慎和靈活的方式。因此，在考慮 RWA 下降時，這兩個因素都被考慮在內。

Listen, I want to make an important point here. We regard our capital ratios as sacrosanct. These are a big deal for us. We've spent a decade building them. We like having excess capital for exactly this environment we're in now. We can buy back up to $20 billion and a bunch that we're going to be doing, hopefully, in the low 70s.

聽著，我想在這裡提出一個重要的觀點。我們認為我們的資本比率是神聖不可侵犯的。這些對我們來說意義重大。我們花了十年時間建造它們。我們喜歡在我們現在所處的環境中擁有多餘的資本。我們可以回購高達 200 億美元的資金，而且我們將在 70 年代的低位買回一堆我們將要做的事情。

So making sure we give ourselves that flexibility, demonstrating discipline in a tough environment. I think Ted and the ISG team did a phenomenal job in driving that number down. And obviously, it's driven in part by volatility in the market, so things outside of their control. But this is something that we should and will try and control as best as we can.

因此，請確保我們賦予自己這種靈活性，在艱難的環境中表現出紀律性。我認為 Ted 和 ISG 團隊在降低這個數字方面做得非常出色。顯然，這部分是由市場波動驅動的，所以事情超出了他們的控制範圍。但這是我們應該並且將盡我們所能嘗試和控制的事情。

Right. Maybe as a follow-up on that, James. I think you've talked about hoping the change in the mix of your business, over time, would push your DFAS losses and SCB down slightly. This year is probably a period of victory, relative to what happened to some of your peers. But do you think there's still room to see that come down over time, given your changing mix?

正確的。也許作為後續行動，詹姆斯。我認為您已經談到希望隨著時間的推移您業務組合的變化會推動您的 DFAS 損失和 SCB 略有下降。相對於你的一些同行所發生的事情，今年可能是一個勝利的時期。但是，考慮到你不斷變化的組合，你認為隨著時間的推移還有下降的空間嗎？

Absolutely. Look at the PPNR number, was materially up as stress losses were also up, not surprisingly. The test was incredibly demanding in this environment. But notwithstanding that, we increased the dividend, and we still came out at 13.3, I think, versus 13.2.

絕對地。看看 PPNR 數字，隨著壓力損失的增加而大幅增加，這並不奇怪。在這種環境下，測試要求非常高。但儘管如此，我們增加了股息，我認為我們的股息仍然是 13.3，而不是 13.2。

We're very focused on the SCB buffer not getting away from us. The change in business model, the growth in the asset management business, the growth in the workplace retirement business, all of these things, which, frankly, are very capital-friendly. Yes, that number is going to keep moving.

我們非常關注 SCB 緩衝區不會遠離我們。商業模式的變化，資產管理業務的增長，工作場所退休業務的增長，所有這些，坦率地說，都是非常有利於資本的。是的，這個數字將繼續增長。

Then we have an argument we've been -- an argument, I won't put it that way, but let's just say a different point of view with the Federal Reserve about how they treat financial adviser compensation during a time of stress. And we have argued for a long time that financial adviser compensation is obviously variable.

然後我們有一個爭論，我們一直在爭論——一個爭論，我不會那樣說，但讓我們對美聯儲在壓力時期如何對待財務顧問薪酬提出不同的看法。我們長期以來一直認為財務顧問的薪酬顯然是可變的。

So that expense comes down when revenues come down. The Fed has not yet seen it our way, but we're continuing to push that argument strongly. When it does, we believe that will free up another bunch of capital.

因此，當收入下降時，費用就會下降。美聯儲尚未看到我們的方式，但我們將繼續大力推動這一論點。當它發生時，我們相信這將釋放另一批資本。

We'll take our next question from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們將向富國證券的 Mike Mayo 提出下一個問題。

James, you've talked about variable expenses for variable revenues, and the revenues were down, and comp was down. But at what point do you pull the lever on kind of plan B? I mean you said 50-50 on a recession. And Sharon talked about maybe delaying some projects.

詹姆斯，你談到了可變收入的可變費用，收入下降了，薪酬下降了。但是，您在什麼時候拉動 B 計劃的槓桿？我的意思是你說經濟衰退時是 50-50。沙龍談到可能會推遲一些項目。

But when it comes to resource allocation, headcount, more aggressive moves to prepare for a difficult environment, you said yourself that it's uncertain, it's not the time to take too much extra risk to push your market share. But is it time to go to plan B or more recession-like scenario in terms of your resource management?

但是當談到資源分配、員工人數、為艱難環境做準備的更積極舉措時，您自己說這是不確定的，現在不是冒太多額外風險來擴大市場份額的時候。但是，就您的資源管理而言，是時候進入 B 計劃或更類似於衰退的情景了嗎？

No, it's not. We're overwhelming in the U.S. We had 6% revenue growth in the Wealth Management business, produced ex integration 28% margins. This is a business we definitely don't want to harm in this environment. We are managing -- I mean I guess it's quasi plan B, managing the RWAs, as we just said, in the balance sheet, reflecting a more stressed environment.

不，這不對。我們在美國勢不可擋。我們的財富管理業務收入增長 6%，整合前利潤率為 28%。這是我們絕對不想在這種環境下傷害的業務。我們正在管理——我的意思是我想這是準 B 計劃，正如我們剛才所說，管理資產負債表中的風險加權資產，反映了壓力更大的環境。

We met as a Management Committee last September, I think, and I spoke to the Management Committee about -- I felt there was much more downside risk to the market. The magnitude of it, I didn't have a strong feeling for, but I thought it was somewhere between significant and really significant.

我想，我們去年 9 月作為管理委員會會面，我與管理委員會談過——我覺得市場存在更多的下行風險。它的重要性，我沒有強烈的感覺，但我認為它介於重要和真正重要之間。

And I think we're in the sort of significant phase right now. So we started pulling back, Mike, at that point. We've got a very clear handle on headcount growth and where that growth is. We've also got a lot of regulatory obligations we've got to continue to fulfill as all the banks do.

我認為我們現在正處於重要階段。所以我們開始後退，邁克，在那個時候。我們非常清楚地了解員工人數的增長以及增長在哪裡。我們還有很多監管義務，我們必須像所有銀行一樣繼續履行。

But right now, we're definitely not in a sort of crisis mode at all. I mean that's what -- if we were, we wouldn't be buying back $20 billion increase in the dividend 11%.

但現在，我們絕對沒有處於某種危機模式中。我的意思是——如果我們是這樣，我們就不會回購 200 億美元的股息增加 11%。

On the other hand, balance sheet growth will be very measured. I think we'll pick up share by banks coming back to us, not necessarily us having to move forward. And as I think Sharon articulated very well, we're doing a pretty systematic review of the prioritization of all the projects going on around the firm.

另一方面，資產負債表的增長將是非常可衡量的。我認為我們會通過銀行回到我們身邊來獲得份額，而不一定是我們必須向前邁進。我認為 Sharon 說得很好，我們正在對公司周圍所有項目的優先級進行非常系統的審查。

Listen, in a big company like this with $60 billion of revenue, we have a lot of stuff going on, and we have choices as to when we do it.

聽著，在這樣一家擁有 600 億美元收入的大公司裡，我們有很多事情要做，而且我們可以選擇何時做。

So I'd call it a sort of plan A minus, not a plan B, if you will, but that's a mindset we're in. However, if things get worse, and in my career, I've seen a lot of recessions, a lot of crises, a lot of damage done to the environment, if things really deteriorate, particularly in the U.S., then we take a much more aggressive position. And we obviously have the ultimate weapon, which is comp.

所以如果你願意的話，我會把它稱為 A 減計劃，而不是 B 計劃，但這是我們的心態。然而，如果情況變得更糟，在我的職業生涯中，我已經看到了很多經濟衰退，很多危機，對環境造成的很多破壞，如果情況真的惡化，尤其是在美國，那麼我們會採取更加激進的立場。我們顯然擁有終極武器，那就是comp。

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。目前沒有其他問題。女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。