摩根士丹利 (MS) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. On behalf of Morgan Stanley, I will begin the call with the following disclaimer. During today's presentation, we will refer to our earnings release and financial supplements, copies of which are available at morganstanley.com.

各位早安。我謹代表摩根士丹利，以以下免責聲明開始本次電話會議。在今天的簡報中，我們將引用我們的盈餘新聞稿與財務補充資料，其副本可於 morganstanley.com 取得。

Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to our notices regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures that appear in the earnings release and strategic update. Within the strategic update, certain reported information has been adjusted as noted. These adjustments were made to provide a transparent and comparative view of our operating performance against our strategic objectives. The reconciliations of these non-GAAP adjusted operating performance metrics are included in the notes to the presentation of the earnings release.

今天的簡報可能包含前瞻性陳述，該等陳述受風險與不確定性影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。請參閱盈餘新聞稿與策略更新中所載關於前瞻性陳述及非 GAAP 衡量指標的相關聲明。在策略更新中，部分揭露資訊已依註記進行調整。這些調整旨在就我們相對於策略目標的營運表現，提供透明且可比較的觀點。上述非 GAAP 調整後營運表現指標之調節表，載於盈餘新聞稿簡報附註中。

Morgan Stanley closed its acquisition of E*TRADE on October 2, 2020, impacting annual comparisons for the firm and Wealth Management; and closed its acquisition of Eaton Vance on March 1, 2021, impacting period-over-period comparisons for the firm and Investment Management. This presentation may not be duplicated or reproduced without our consent. I will now turn the call over to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, James Gorman.

摩根士丹利於 2020 年 10 月 2 日完成對 E*TRADE 的收購，影響本公司及財富管理業務的年度比較；並於 2021 年 3 月 1 日完成對 Eaton Vance 的收購，影響本公司及投資管理業務的期間比較。未經我們同意，本簡報不得複製或重製。接下來我將把電話會議交給董事長兼執行長 James Gorman。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Morgan Stanley delivered another record year of profits and results in 2021, generating a full year ROTCE of 20%. Performance was strong in each business. In Institutional Securities, we showed strength and gained share. And in Wealth Management, we added over $430 billion of net new assets, bringing total client assets to nearly $5 trillion. We drove our strategic vision forward Investment Management, successfully closing our acquisition of Eaton Vance in the year and created a premier asset manager, which itself has $1.6 trillion of assets under management.

謝謝。各位早安。摩根士丹利在 2021 年再度交出創紀錄的獲利與業績，全年 ROTCE 達 20%。各項業務表現皆強勁。在機構證券業務方面，我們展現實力並提升市占。在財富管理方面，我們新增超過 4,300 億美元的淨新增資產，使客戶資產總額接近 5 兆美元。我們也推進了投資管理的策略願景，於年內成功完成對 Eaton Vance 的收購，打造出一流的資產管理公司，其管理資產規模（AUM）達 1.6 兆美元。

Sharon will discuss the details of the quarter and the full year shortly. But first, as always, I will walk through our annual strategic updates. If you turn to the document and start on Slide 3. At the beginning of last year, we set 2-year objectives with the expectation that 2021 would be a transition year as we work through our integrations. Clearly, the firm's performance exceeded the expectations we had for 2021 heading into that year. With the early successes of the E*TRADE and Eaton Vance acquisitions and the firm's overall momentum, we entered 2022 ahead of plan.

Sharon 稍後將說明本季與全年細節。但首先，如同以往，我將帶各位回顧我們的年度策略更新。請翻到文件並從第 3 頁投影片開始。去年年初，我們設定了 2 年期目標，並預期 2021 年將是我們推進整合工作的過渡年。顯然，本公司在 2021 年的表現超出我們在該年初所預期。隨著 E*TRADE 與 Eaton Vance 收購案的早期成功，以及公司整體動能，我們在 2022 年以超前計畫的狀態起步。

Turn to Slide 4. First, I'll focus on our 12-year transformation and where the firm is today. History offers perspective on our track record. Next, I'll highlight where we've built unique competitive advantages around each of our businesses and how we expect to grow and maintain our leading positions. Then I will address our continued commitment to return capital to our shareholders. And finally, I'll touch on how, when taken together, this should lead to further multiple expansion.

請看第 4 頁投影片。首先，我將聚焦於我們 12 年來的轉型，以及公司目前所處的位置。歷史能為我們的成績提供視角。接著，我將強調我們如何在各項業務周邊建立獨特的競爭優勢，以及我們預期如何成長並維持領先地位。然後我將談到我們持續致力於回饋資本給股東。最後，我會簡要說明，綜合以上因素，如何有望帶來進一步的估值倍數擴張。

To begin with our longer-term evolution, slide 5 highlights the transformation of Morgan Stanley into a more balanced, higher returning firm today. Total revenues are more than double the level of 2009 with each business significantly growing and contributing to the firm's enhanced profitability. Each of our businesses now have defensible and sustainable competitive advantages to protect and drive their leading positions.

先從較長期的演進談起，第 5 頁投影片凸顯摩根士丹利已轉型為今日更均衡、回報更高的公司。總營收較 2009 年水準增加逾一倍，各項業務皆顯著成長並為公司更高的獲利能力做出貢獻。我們每一項業務如今都具備可防禦且可持續的競爭優勢，以保護並推動其領先地位。

Start with Institutional Securities on Slide 6. Looking back to 2014, when we had recovered from the financial crisis, but before we reset our strategy and restructured some of this business, we've increased share both overall and individually across business lines. Share continues to aggregate to the industry leaders, and we expect this trend to hold. Our competitive position is strong, and as demonstrated in the very active markets for the last 2 years, we are confident in our ability to capitalize on opportunities to hold, if not gain, share across the division.

從第 6 頁投影片的機構證券業務開始。回顧 2014 年，當時我們已自金融危機中復甦，但尚未重設策略並重整部分業務；自那時起，我們在整體以及各條業務線上都提升了市占。市占仍持續向產業領導者集中，我們預期此趨勢將延續。我們的競爭地位穩固，且如過去兩年市場高度活躍所示，我們有信心把握機會，在整個事業部維持、甚至提升市占。

Moving to Slide 7. Our integrated investment bank delivered $30 billion of revenues in 2021 and continues to demonstrate operating leverage, highlighted by our expanding margins. Our footprint is balanced around the world, putting us in a leading tier of investment banks with global scale. Our franchise has never been stronger, and we have seen tangible results from the collaboration between our segments.

接著看第 7 頁投影片。我們整合式投資銀行在 2021 年創造 300 億美元營收，並持續展現營運槓桿，體現在我們擴張的利潤率上。我們的全球布局均衡，使我們躋身具備全球規模的投資銀行領先梯隊。我們的特許經營實力從未如此強勁，且我們已看到各事業群之間協作所帶來的具體成果。

Shifting to Wealth Management on Slide 8. The growth we have seen in 2021 has been unprecedented. We added nearly $1 trillion in client assets in a single year. Scale advantages propelled growth, and we added $438 billion of net new assets in the last 12 months. This predominantly organic growth is the result of our consistent and focused execution on our integration and expansion initiatives and puts us in a leading position.

轉到第 8 頁投影片的財富管理。2021 年我們所見的成長前所未有。我們在單一年內新增近 1 兆美元的客戶資產。規模優勢推動成長，過去 12 個月我們新增 4,380 億美元的淨新增資產。這種以內生成長為主的成果，來自我們對整合與擴張計畫一貫且聚焦的執行，使我們處於領先地位。

The journey over the last few years has demonstrated the out of the possible. With respect to net new asset growth, this business has gone from very low single digits in the last decade to 4% to 6% more recently to unprecedented growth this year. Obviously, it's still early days but the verticals are in place. Before we commit to specific guidance for net new asset growth, we need more time to better understand the power of these channels. But what I can tell you is that the proof points are strong, and we feel great about where we are today in the business potential.

過去幾年的歷程顯示，可能性的邊界被大幅推進。就淨新增資產成長而言，這項業務已從過去十年的極低個位數，提升至近年的 4% 至 6%，並在今年達到前所未有的成長。顯然，現在仍屬早期階段，但各垂直領域已就位。在我們對淨新增資產成長做出具體指引之前，仍需要更多時間以更充分理解這些通路的威力。但我可以告訴各位的是，驗證點相當強，我們對目前在業務潛力上的位置感到非常振奮。

Turning to Slide 9. With the top adviser-led business in the industry, complemented by leading workplace and self-directed offerings, the wealth franchise we've built is a category 1. We already serve nearly $5 trillion of client assets, and overall revenue on assets remains high over 50 basis points, underlining this segment is -- underlining this segment as an economic engine for the firm. As we think about the growth ahead, we are most excited about the nearly 15 million relationships we have across channels and the potential to deepen those relationships further and consolidate client assets under the platform.

請看第 9 頁投影片。憑藉業界首屈一指、以顧問為主導的業務，並由領先的職場（workplace）與自助式（self-directed）產品補強，我們打造的財富管理平台屬於第一類（category 1）。我們目前已服務近 5 兆美元的客戶資產，而資產相關的整體收入仍高於 50 個基點，凸顯此事業群是本公司的經濟引擎。展望未來成長，我們最感到興奮的是跨通路近 1,500 萬個客戶關係，以及進一步深化這些關係、並將客戶資產整合至平台之下的潛力。

On Slide 10, we look more closely at workplace, which I'm incredibly excited about for the future. As we've said before, we see this channel as a funnel for client and asset acquisition to sustain growth going forward. We now have over $500 billion of unvested assets in this channel and expect to retain an increasing proportion as they vest. In 2021, we had a 24% retention rate. That compares with 21% the previous year. Given our focused effort, our long-term goal is to reach 30% retention. This new metric illustrates the strength of the workplace business to augment net new assets to Wealth Management.

在第 10 頁投影片中，我們更仔細地檢視職場（workplace）業務，我對其未來感到非常振奮。如同我們先前所說，我們將此通路視為客戶與資產獲取的漏斗，以支撐未來的持續成長。我們目前在此通路中擁有超過 5,000 億美元的未歸屬（unvested）資產，並預期在其歸屬（vest）後能留存更高比例。2021 年我們的留存率為 24%，相較前一年的 21% 提升。基於我們聚焦的努力，長期目標是達到 30% 留存率。這項新指標說明職場業務在為財富管理帶來淨新增資產方面的強勁能力。

Moving to Investment Management on Slide 11. Our platform has transformed into premier and growing asset manager. Our distinctive capabilities enable us to deliver differentiated client value as endorsed by $115 billion of net flows in the year. Total AUM is now $1.6 trillion, and our more durable asset management fees are nearly triple what they were in 2014.

接著看第 11 頁投影片的投資管理。我們的平台已轉型為一流且持續成長的資產管理公司。我們獨特的能力使我們能提供差異化的客戶價值，並在今年獲得 1,150 億美元的淨流入作為印證。總管理資產（AUM）現為 1.6 兆美元，而我們更具持久性的資產管理費收入，幾乎是 2014 年的三倍。

If you look closer with our Investment Management business on Slide 12, you can see we're a leader and growing where it matters most. Customization, specifically direct indexing through the premier Parametric brand, sustainability and alternatives are each areas of increasing client demand. We've strengthened our position across these categories with robust investment in our capabilities, and we've seen meaningful asset under management growth as a result.

若在第 12 頁投影片更深入檢視投資管理業務，您可以看到我們在最關鍵的領域居於領先並持續成長。客製化（特別是透過頂尖 Parametric 品牌的直接指數化 direct indexing）、永續投資與另類投資，都是客戶需求日益增加的領域。我們透過對能力的強力投資，強化了在這些類別的地位，並因此看到顯著的管理資產成長。

Moreover, the complementary nature of distribution networks with Eaton Vance's powerful U.S. retail distribution capabilities and MSIM's strength in international distribution enhances our client reach. We're encouraged by early signs of success in leveraging the greater combined network, along with our world-class equity franchise and value-added fixed income platform, and we expect these areas will continue to drive growth into the future.

此外，通路網路的互補性——Eaton Vance 強大的美國零售通路能力，以及 MSIM 在國際通路上的優勢——擴大了我們觸及客戶的範圍。我們對於運用更大且整合後的網路所展現的早期成功跡象感到鼓舞；再加上我們世界級的股票特許經營與具附加價值的固定收益平台，我們預期這些領域將在未來持續推動成長。

Finally, on Slide 11, as we look ahead, we expect rates to rise. We expect approximately $500 million of incremental NII in Wealth Management this year based on the year-end forward curve. Additionally, we expect another $200 million this year from the reversal of fee waivers in our Investment Management business.

最後，在第 11 頁投影片，展望未來，我們預期利率將上升。依據年末遠期曲線，我們預期今年財富管理的淨利息收入（NII）將增加約 5 億美元。此外，我們也預期今年投資管理業務因費用減免（fee waivers）回轉而再增加 2 億美元。

To further measure our rate sensitivity, we look at what happens if there is an incremental 100 basis point parallel shift in rates beyond the curve. That would deliver another $1.3 billion, which largely goes to the bottom line. While we certainly don't expect this additional shift to happen this year, the firm will clearly benefit substantially as rates rise over the next several years.

為了進一步衡量我們對利率的敏感度，我們觀察若在該曲線之外，利率再額外出現 100 個基點的平行上移，將會發生什麼情況。那將再帶來 13 億美元的增量，且大部分將直接反映在最終盈餘上。雖然我們當然不預期今年會發生這樣的額外上移，但隨著未來幾年利率走升，本公司顯然將大幅受益。

Pivoting to our capital return strategy on Slide 14. Our increased earnings power, supported by revenues from more durable sources, has enabled us to double our annualized dividend to $2.80 just last year while, at the same time, executing on meaningful share repurchases. Notwithstanding the returns we're making to shareholders and the investments we make in our business, we continue to have an excess capital position. Our CET1 ratio was 16% at year-end after paying our dividend, executing on our repurchase plan and accounting for the impact of SACCR.

接著看第 14 頁投影片的資本回饋策略。我們更強的獲利能力，並由更具持久性的收入來源所支撐，使我們在去年將年化股利加倍至 2.80 美元，同時也執行了具規模的庫藏股回購。儘管我們對股東進行回饋、並對業務進行投資，我們仍維持超額資本部位。於年末，在支付股利、執行回購計畫並計入 SACCR 影響後，我們的 CET1 比率為 16%。

And as further illustrated on Slide 15, growing net income has provided us the flexibility to reduce our share count. While we added 300 million shares from our 2 large acquisitions of E*TRADE and Eaton Vance, we continue to execute on our meaningful buyback program and have brought back our share count back to just under $1.8 billion from $2 billion in 2014.

如投影片15進一步所示，淨利持續成長為我們提供了降低流通股數的彈性。雖然因兩項大型收購 E*TRADE 與 Eaton Vance 使我們增加了3億股，但我們仍持續執行具規模的庫藏股回購計畫，並已將流通股數從2014年的20億股降回至略低於18億股。

Taking all this together, Slide 16 highlights the fundamentals we have in place to drive future multiple expansion. We have scale, significant growth opportunities in wealth and investment management, coupled with a leading institutional business, and a strong commitment to capital return. The Morgan Stanley brand has never been stronger. We've been fortunate enough to acquire additional brands in the last few years that have tremendous value in expanding our footprint. The sum of these elements supports multiple expansion for the combined company.

綜合以上，投影片16凸顯我們已具備推動未來估值倍數擴張的基本面。我們擁有規模優勢、財富管理與投資管理領域的顯著成長機會，並結合領先的機構業務，以及對資本回饋的堅定承諾。Morgan Stanley 品牌從未如此強大。過去幾年我們也很幸運收購了其他品牌，這些品牌在擴大我們的版圖方面具有極高價值。上述要素的總和，支持合併後公司實現估值倍數擴張。

Slide 17 shows our performance goals. Of note, we are increasing our ROTCE goal to reflect the earnings power we see in our business model. We are laser focused on delivering value to our clients, our shareholders and our employees, and we believe an ROTCE in excess of 20% is achievable. As we look to the longer term, with the support of our track record behind us, we're adding a new goal, a long-term goal to achieve $10 trillion in client assets across wealth and Investment Management. As always, our targets are subject, of course, to major market moves or changes in the economic, political and regulatory environment. However, with the outlook we have now, we fully expect to achieve our goals.

投影片17展示了我們的績效目標。值得注意的是，我們正在上調 ROTCE 目標，以反映我們在商業模式中所看到的獲利能力。我們高度聚焦於為客戶、股東與員工創造價值，並相信超過20%的 ROTCE 是可達成的。展望更長期，在既有成績的支持下，我們新增一項長期目標：在財富管理與投資管理合計的客戶資產達到10兆美元。一如既往，我們的目標當然仍可能受到重大市場波動或經濟、政治與監管環境變化的影響。然而，以目前的展望，我們完全預期能達成目標。

I'll now turn the call over to Sharon, who will discuss our fourth quarter and annual results. And together, we will take your questions. Thank you.

接下來我將把電話會議交給 Sharon，她將說明我們第四季與全年業績。之後我們將一起回答各位的提問。謝謝。

Thank you, and good morning. The firm produced record revenues of $59.8 billion in 2021 and ended the year on a strong footing with fourth quarter revenues of $14.5 billion. All 3 businesses contributed to the extremely strong full year results, reflecting high levels of client engagement and active market. Excluding integration-related expenses, our ROTCE was 20.2% for the full year and 20.4% for the fourth quarter, and EPS was $8.22 and $2.08, respectively.

謝謝，各位早安。本公司在2021年創下598億美元的歷史新高營收，並以第四季145億美元的營收為全年畫下強勁句點。三大業務皆對全年極為亮眼的成果有所貢獻，反映客戶高度參與以及市場活躍。若排除整合相關費用，我們全年 ROTCE 為20.2%，第四季為20.4%；每股盈餘（EPS）分別為8.22美元與2.08美元。

Even while investing in our business, we continue to demonstrate operating leverage led by Institutional Securities. The full year efficiency ratio was 67.1%. Excluding integration-related expenses, our full year efficiency ratio was 66.3%, down from 68.4% in 2020. Total expenses in the year were $40.1 billion. The increase in total expenses versus the prior year reflects the addition of E*TRADE and Eaton Vance and the integration-related costs, and higher compensation on higher revenues.

即使持續投資於業務，我們仍展現由機構證券業務帶動的營運槓桿。全年效率比率為67.1%。若排除整合相關費用，全年效率比率為66.3%，較2020年的68.4%下降。全年總費用為401億美元。與前一年相比，總費用增加反映納入 E*TRADE 與 Eaton Vance、整合相關成本，以及在營收提高下薪酬支出增加。

Now to the businesses. Institutional Securities delivered excellent full year performance with record revenues of $29.8 billion. In the fourth quarter, revenues were $6.7 billion. Our integrated approach, global footprint and balance across business lines continues to distinguish our model.

接著看各業務。機構證券業務全年表現優異，營收創下298億美元新高。第四季營收為67億美元。我們的整合式策略、全球布局，以及各業務線之間的均衡配置，持續使我們的模式脫穎而出。

Underscoring the operating leverage in the business, pretax margin was 39.6% for the full year, increasing from 34.6% in the prior year. Investment Banking revenues were a record $10.3 billion for the full year. While each business delivered record results, advisory and equity underwriting led the year-over-year improvement. Corporate clients actively pursued strategic opportunities and sponsor-deployed capital. IPO issuances were exceptionally robust in the year. And from a geographical perspective, results were led by the Americas, along with sustained strength in EMEA.

凸顯該業務的營運槓桿，全年稅前利潤率為39.6%，較前一年的34.6%提升。投資銀行業務全年營收創下103億美元新高。雖然各項業務皆創紀錄，但顧問與股票承銷帶動了年增改善。企業客戶積極尋求策略性機會，且贊助方資本持續投入。全年 IPO 發行特別強勁。從地理區域來看，業績由美洲領先，EMEA 亦維持強勢。

Fourth quarter revenues of $20.4 billion -- excuse me, of $2.4 billion increased 6% from the prior year, driven by strength in advisory. Trends from the third quarter persisted, particularly as results benefited from a broadening of transactions across sectors. Although underwriting revenues moderated overall, equity issuance was strong, and elevated levels of event-driven activity supported fixed income.

第四季營收為24億美元——抱歉，是24億美元——較前一年增加6%，主要由顧問業務強勁所帶動。第三季的趨勢延續，特別是受惠於跨產業交易的擴大。雖然整體承銷營收降溫，但股票發行仍強勁，且事件驅動活動維持高檔，支撐固定收益表現。

We continue to invest in our Investment Banking business. Our outlook entering 2022 is strong, and our pipelines continue to be healthy across products. CEO confidence remains high, and markets remain open and constructive. Additionally, advisory transactions should support strong capital market issuance. Equity full year revenues were a record $11.4 billion, increasing 15% from the prior year as client engagement remained high. The increase versus the prior year was driven by strength in prime brokerage and, from a geographical perspective, Asia.

我們持續投資於投資銀行業務。進入2022年的展望強勁，各產品線的案源管線仍然健康。CEO 信心維持高檔，市場也保持開放且具建設性。此外，顧問交易可望支撐強勁的資本市場發行。股票業務全年營收創下114億美元新高，較前一年增加15%，因客戶參與度仍高。與前一年相比的增長主要由主經紀業務帶動；從地理區域來看，則以亞洲為主。

Revenues were $2.9 billion in the quarter. Increased revenues in prime brokerage on higher client balances were offset by declines in cash and derivatives on lower client activity versus the prior fourth quarter. This quarter also included a mark-to-market gain of $225 million on a certain strategic investment. Fixed income revenues were $7.5 billion for the full year, declining 15% from the last year's exceptional results. The full year decline was driven by tighter bid offer spreads in macro and credit corporates, partially offset by securitized products.

本季營收為29億美元。主經紀業務因客戶餘額提高而帶動營收增加，但現金與衍生性商品因客戶活動較前一年第四季下降而下滑，抵銷了部分增幅。本季亦包含對某項策略性投資的按市價評價（mark-to-market）收益2.25億美元。固定收益業務全年營收為75億美元，較去年異常亮眼的結果下降15%。全年下滑主要因宏觀與信用（企業）產品的買賣價差收窄，部分由證券化產品所抵銷。

Quarterly revenues of $1.2 billion were 31% lower than the prior year, reflecting a challenging trading environment in rates and lower volumes and tighter bid offer spreads in credit. Further, client engagement tempered in December, reflecting seasonal patterns, impacting results.

單季營收為12億美元，較前一年下降31%，反映利率產品交易環境具挑戰性，以及信用產品成交量下降與買賣價差收窄。此外，12月客戶參與度因季節性因素而趨緩，影響了業績。

Turning to Wealth Management. For the full year, Wealth Management produced record revenues of $24.2 billion and a PBT margin of 25.5%. Excluding $346 million of integration-related expenses, the PBT margin was 26.9%. Fourth quarter revenues were $6.3 billion, up 10% from the prior year, and the PBT margin was 22.6%. Excluding integration-related expenses of $109 million, the PBT margin for the quarter was 24.4%.

接著看財富管理。全年財富管理營收創下242億美元新高，稅前利潤（PBT）利潤率為25.5%。若排除3.46億美元的整合相關費用，PBT 利潤率為26.9%。第四季營收為63億美元，較前一年增加10%，PBT 利潤率為22.6%。若排除1.09億美元的整合相關費用，本季 PBT 利潤率為24.4%。

Quarterly margin was negatively impacted by seasonal expenses and certain compensation and benefits decisions made to further support our employees. Given the full annual impact of these decisions was taken in the fourth quarter, the impact was amplified in this quarter's margin. Going forward, this will be spread throughout the year pro rata. As we look ahead to the first quarter of 2022, we expect the PBT margin to be more in line with the 2021 full year margin, excluding integration-related expenses.

本季利潤率受到季節性費用，以及為進一步支持員工而做出的若干薪酬與福利決策所負面影響。由於這些決策的全年影響在第四季一次反映，使本季利潤率的影響被放大。未來將按比例分攤至全年各季。展望2022年第一季，我們預期 PBT 利潤率（排除整合相關費用）將更接近2021年全年利潤率水準。

This business continues to benefit from strong client demand across the platform. Client assets grew nearly $1 trillion this year and now stands at $4.9 trillion. Fee-based flows were an incredible $179 billion in the year, recording growth in fee-based assets of $1.8 trillion or 25% higher than last year. In the quarter, asset management revenues were -- asset management revenues were $3.7 billion. Net new assets of $438 billion in the year represent 11% annual growth of beginning period assets. Momentum was carried through the fourth quarter, which saw net new assets of $127 billion. We saw strong asset generation from both existing clients and net new clients, driven by the adviser-led channel. We remain a destination of choice for advisers and continue to add strong teams and retain productive advisers.

該業務持續受惠於平台各面向的強勁客戶需求。今年客戶資產增加近1兆美元，目前達到4.9兆美元。全年以費用為基礎（fee-based）的資金流入高達1,790億美元，帶動 fee-based 資產增加1.8兆美元，較去年高出25%。本季資產管理營收為——資產管理營收為37億美元。全年淨新增資產4,380億美元，代表期初資產的11%年增率。動能延續至第四季，淨新增資產達1,270億美元。我們看到既有客戶與新客戶皆帶來強勁的資產導入，主要由顧問主導通路所驅動。我們仍是顧問的首選平台，並持續延攬優秀團隊、留任高產能顧問。

Net new assets' growth is further buoyed by positive momentum in our newer channels, namely workplace. Our results demonstrate the tremendous asset generation capability of our platform. Transactional revenues in the fourth quarter were $1 billion, declining 23% from the prior year. Excluding the impact of DCP, which declined by approximately $300 million versus prior year, revenues were flat.

淨新增資產的成長亦進一步受惠於我們較新通路（即職場通路 workplace）的正向動能。我們的成果展現平台卓越的資產導入能力。第四季交易型營收為10億美元，較前一年下降23%。若排除 DCP 的影響（較前一年約減少3億美元），營收持平。

The workplace continues to gain traction. Our total number of participants we now read stands at 5.6 million, 14% higher than last year, and unvested assets now exceed $500 billion. As James mentioned, we are reporting on a new metric to show the percentage of stock plan assets that vest and remain within Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. E*TRADE previously disclosed a similar metrics. The definition going forward will measure the retention of the value of vested stocks on a rolling 12- to 24-month period. This new metric will allow us to measure the potential strength of workplace to service the funnel to grow our asset base.

職場通路持續獲得進展。我們目前的參與人數達560萬人，較去年增加14%，未歸屬（unvested）資產現已超過5,000億美元。如 James 所提，我們新增一項指標，用以呈現股票計畫資產歸屬後仍留在 Morgan Stanley 財富管理的比例。E*TRADE 先前也揭露過類似指標。未來的定義將以滾動12至24個月期間，衡量已歸屬股票價值的留存率。此新指標將使我們得以衡量職場通路在服務漏斗、進而擴大資產基礎方面的潛在強度。

We saw 24% retention in 2021, which compares to 21% in 2020. As James mentioned, over time, we believe that number can reach retention for our stock plan administration business. Going forward, we plan to disclose this metric annually. Bank lending balances grew by $31 billion in the year, and now stand at $129 billion. Strong client demand for securities-based lending and mortgages drove the increase. Net interest income was $1.4 billion in the quarter, driven by strong lending growth and the benefit of fully phased-in funding synergies. The fourth quarter NII is a reasonable base to inform 2022.

我們在2021年看到24%的留存率，較2020年的21%提升。如 James 所提，隨時間推進，我們相信該數字可達到我們股票計畫管理業務的留存水準。未來我們計畫每年揭露此指標。銀行放款餘額全年增加310億美元，目前達到1,290億美元。證券擔保放款與房貸的強勁客戶需求帶動了增長。本季淨利息收入（NII）為14億美元，受惠於強勁放款成長以及資金協同效益全面到位的貢獻。第四季 NII 可作為推估2022年的合理基準。

This year, NII will be impacted by the forward curve on lending growth. On rates, while the timing and the magnitude of the rate hikes is uncertain, we should benefit from rising rates and the realization of the forward curve. This would imply an estimated $500 million of additional NII this year, largely weighted to the back half of the year. On lending, we continue to see strong lending demand. And while growth is likely to moderate some, we expect approximately $20 billion of loan growth in the year.

今年，淨利息收入（NII）將受到放款成長的遠期曲線影響。在利率方面，雖然升息的時點與幅度仍不確定，但我們應可受惠於利率上升以及遠期曲線的逐步實現。這意味著今年NII可望增加約5億美元，且主要集中在下半年。在放款方面，我們持續看到強勁的借貸需求。儘管成長可能會有所放緩，我們預期全年貸款成長約200億美元。

Finally, the integration of the E*TRADE continues to go well. We are encouraged by continued client engagement and are seeing rate clients take advantage of Morgan Stanley capabilities being introduced on the E*TRADE platform. Building on our digital client experience, clients are now able to link their self-directed accounts via single sign-on. We have successfully merged E*TRADE's bank legal entities with Morgan Stanley's. Throughout the integration efforts, we continue to focus on a unified client experience while providing client's choice. Completing this integration successfully remains a key investment priority.

最後，E*TRADE 的整合持續進展順利。我們對客戶持續的參與度感到鼓舞，並看到利率敏感型客戶正利用在 E*TRADE 平台上導入的摩根士丹利能力。在我們的數位客戶體驗基礎上，客戶現在可透過單一登入（single sign-on）連結其自主管理帳戶。我們已成功將 E*TRADE 的銀行法律實體與摩根士丹利的合併。在整合過程中，我們持續聚焦於一致的客戶體驗，同時提供客戶選擇。成功完成此整合仍是重要的投資優先事項。

Moving to Investment Management. The timing of the Eaton Vance acquisition makes comparisons to prior periods difficult. So I will make my comments primarily on an absolute basis. Investment Management reported annual revenues of $6.2 billion and quarterly revenues of $1.8 billion. Our results continue to demonstrate the diversification of this business and a greater contribution from more durable management fee revenues.

接著談投資管理業務。由於收購 Eaton Vance 的時點，使得與過往期間的比較較為困難，因此我將主要以絕對值來評論。投資管理業務全年營收為62億美元，單季營收為18億美元。我們的結果持續展現此業務的多元化，以及更耐久的管理費收入所帶來的更高貢獻。

Total AUM rose to a record high of $1.6 trillion, of which long-term AUM was also a record at $1.1 trillion. Total net flows were $12 billion in the quarter, driven by liquidity and overlay services. Long-term net flows were slightly negative. For the full year, net flows were $115 billion. Asset management and related fees were $1.6 billion in the quarter. The 8% sequential increase was driven by higher performance fees. As a reminder, performance fees are mostly recognized in the fourth quarter. Performance-based income and other revenues were $166 million, reflecting broad-based gains in our diversified alternative platform.

總管理資產（AUM）上升至創新高的1.6兆美元，其中長期AUM亦創新高，達1.1兆美元。本季總淨流入為120億美元，主要由流動性與疊加（overlay）服務帶動；長期淨流入則略為負值。全年淨流入為1,150億美元。本季資產管理及相關費用為16億美元，較前一季成長8%，主要由較高的績效費推動。提醒一下，績效費多數在第四季認列。以績效為基礎的收入及其他營收為1.66億美元，反映我們多元化另類投資平台的廣泛性收益。

Finally, the integration with Eaton Vance remains on track. In the first half of this year, we will bring a number of Eaton Vance and Calvert funds onto our international distribution platform. We are also now offering MSIM model portfolios on the E*TRADE platform, and we are seeing positive traction.

最後，與 Eaton Vance 的整合仍按計畫推進。今年上半年，我們將把多檔 Eaton Vance 與 Calvert 基金納入我們的國際銷售通路平台。我們也已在 E*TRADE 平台上提供 MSIM 模型投資組合，並看到正向的進展。

Turning to the balance sheet. Total spot assets were $1.2 trillion. Risk-weighted assets were essentially flat to the prior quarter at $472 billion. We adopted SACCR on December 1, resulting in a $23 billion RWA increase. This was offset by a decline in activity and lower market levels towards the end of the quarter. Our SACCR mitigation efforts were better than we anticipated and resulted in an impact lower than our initial guidance to produce a better outcome. We repurchased approximately $2.8 billion of common stock during the quarter. We remain well capitalized post the adoption of SACCR, and our standardized CET1 ratio now stands at 16%, flat to the prior quarter. Our tax rate was 23.1% for the full year. And absent any changes to tax law, we expect our 2022 tax rate to be in line with 2021, which will exhibit some quarter-to-quarter volatility.

接著談資產負債表。總即期資產為1.2兆美元。風險加權資產（RWA）為4,720億美元，與前一季基本持平。我們於12月1日採用SACCR，使RWA增加230億美元；但此影響被季末活動下降及市場水準走低所抵銷。我們的SACCR緩解措施優於預期，使影響低於我們最初的指引，結果更佳。本季我們回購約28億美元普通股。採用SACCR後，我們仍維持充足資本；標準化普通股權益第一類資本比率（CET1）目前為16%，與前一季持平。全年稅率為23.1%。在稅法未變動的情況下，我們預期2022年稅率將與2021年大致一致，但各季之間會有一定波動。

In terms of our outlook for calendar year 2022. The exit rate of our Wealth and Investment Management asset base and the integrations of our acquisitions set these businesses up to continue to perform strongly. In addition, as James discussed, the realization of the forward curve will only further support results. As it relates to institutional securities, while it remains difficult to forecast this business, the banking pipeline looks healthy and the year has started off well. That said, a lot will depend on monetary and fiscal policy and its impact on sentiment.

就我們對2022曆年的展望而言，財富管理與投資管理的資產基礎退出水準（exit rate）以及收購案的整合，將使這些業務持續維持強勁表現。此外，如 James 所述，遠期曲線的實現將進一步支撐業績。至於機構證券業務，雖然仍難以預測，但投行業務管線看起來健康，且今年開局良好。不過，許多因素仍將取決於貨幣與財政政策及其對市場情緒的影響。

With that, we will now open the line up for questions.

接下來，我們將開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from Christian Bolu with Autonomous.

（接線員指示）第一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Christian Bolu。

So James, on the -- organic growth has been remarkably strong and you keep calling for a slowdown on organic growth, but we're not seeing any sort of -- any evidence of slowing. If anything, you're accelerating here. I guess a couple of questions on that. Can you give us a bit more flavor around what's driving organic growth? How much of it is retention versus recruiting? On recruiting, who are you gaining share from? And then I would imagine you have quite a bit of visibility into the recruiting pipeline. So any sense of like how long do you think the sort of strength can continue?

James，關於——有機成長一直非常強勁，而你們也一直提到有機成長會放緩，但我們並沒有看到任何——任何放緩的跡象。若有的話，反而是在加速。我想就此問幾個問題：你能否更具體說明是什麼在驅動有機成長？其中有多少來自留任（retention），多少來自招募（recruiting）？在招募方面，你們是從哪些對手那裡取得市占？另外，我想你們對招募管線應該有相當高的能見度，那麼你們覺得這種強勢大概還能持續多久？

Good morning, Christian. I think you're talking about net new money, I assume, right?

早安，Christian。我想你指的是淨新增資金（net new money），對吧？

Correct. Correct.

沒錯。沒錯。

Yes. Yes. I mean it's not a simple answer because in the old days, it was simple. It was a function of money that you lost by financial advisers leaving and money you gain by recruiting financial advisers. And obviously, that's a sort of sorry way to run a business. It basically settles your P&L for the next 9 years to buy a little bit of joy in the near term. Fortunately, we've outgrown that.

是的。是的。我的意思是，這不是一個簡單的答案，因為在過去，答案很簡單：取決於離職的理財顧問帶走了多少資金，以及我們招募理財顧問帶來了多少資金。而顯然，那是一種很糟的經營方式。基本上，你為了短期的一點點快樂，就把未來9年的損益表（P&L）鎖死了。幸好，我們已經超越那種模式。

The source of net new money comes from several places. Number one, as you heard the retention in the workplace space is much better than what we did pre-E*TRADE. I mean, we -- I think it went from 21% to 24% last year, but pre-E*TRADE, it was much, much lower and pre-Solium.

淨新增資金的來源有好幾個。第一，如你所聽到的，我們在職場（workplace）領域的留任率比併購 E*TRADE 之前好很多。我們——我想去年從21%提升到24%，但在併購 E*TRADE 之前，甚至在併購 Solium 之前，水準要低得多。

Number two, the reality is wealthy people get wealthier quicker than people who are less wealthy, get wealthy. And we've got a lot of them. We -- now with our -- the sophistication of our network, the linkages we have to invest in banking across our top financial advisers, the family office structure the team has put in place, are all drivers of growth that we didn't have before. I mean just the new assets that are brought in from our Investment Banking relationships sort of across the house. Whereas, in the past, we never really introduced across the house. It's truly running like one firm.

第二，現實是：富人變得更富的速度，比不那麼富的人變富的速度更快。而我們擁有很多這樣的客戶。現在，憑藉我們——我們網路的成熟度、我們在頂尖理財顧問之間建立的投資與銀行業務連結、團隊建立的家族辦公室架構，這些都是我們以前沒有的成長驅動因素。我的意思是，僅僅是透過我們投資銀行關係、在全公司範圍內帶進來的新資產。過去我們其實沒有真正做到跨部門引介。現在確實像是一家整體運作的公司。

Thirdly, we're just not losing many people. I mean that's the reality relative to previous years, we're being significant net gainers. And that's not because we're doing stupid recruiting deals. That's because we're not losing a lot of people. Now we are doing recruiting deals. There are talented people in the market. They're not coming from one particular firm or another. We don't focus on firms. We focus on individuals, and that has been doing well.

第三，我們流失的人真的不多。相較於以往年度，這就是現實——我們是顯著的淨增加者。而這不是因為我們做了愚蠢的招募交易。是因為我們沒有流失很多人。當然我們也有在做招募交易，市場上有很多有才華的人。他們不是來自某一家特定公司。我們不以公司為焦點，我們以個人為焦點，而這方面進展得很不錯。

Then you add in things like the technology the team has put in place in Wealth Management, sort of the virtual adviser-type technology where you leverage the best talent we have across the whole country. All of the old platform that is being built out, where we now provide the product that you would have had to go to another firm to get. And finally, you bring in the deposits and what we've done with the bank and the online banking. And then you throw on top of that E*TRADE, and what that's been doing in growth.

接著你再把一些因素加進來，例如團隊在財富管理中建置的科技——某種虛擬顧問類型的技術，讓你能在全國範圍內槓桿運用我們最優秀的人才。還有正在擴建的整個舊平台，如今我們提供的產品，以前你必須去別家公司才能取得。最後，再加上存款、我們在銀行端以及線上銀行所做的事情。然後再把 E*TRADE 以及它在成長方面的貢獻疊加上去。

And so Christian, it's an interesting story. It's many, many parts, which is why we're confident, it's going to keep going. Just recruiting, that's different. You turn that spigot on or off, but it's not just recruiting. So I think there's going to be strong organic growth. I mean these numbers, we said unprecedented for reason. It had never -- we've never seen -- it's 10%, 11% organic growth year-over-year. That's got to be the best in the industry and overwhelmingly the best in our history. And it's better than, frankly, many of the traditional faster-growing, so-called faster-growing companies. So we're really excited about it. I don't think 10% or 11% is realistic to hold. But certainly, we're not going back to anywhere near where we were in the old days.

所以 Christian，這是一個很有意思的故事，由很多很多部分組成，這也是為什麼我們有信心它會持續下去。單純的招募是不同的——你可以把水龍頭打開或關掉，但不只是招募而已。所以我認為有機成長會很強。我是說，這些數字——我們說它前所未見是有原因的。從來——我們從未見過——年對年10%、11%的有機成長。這一定是業界最好的，也絕對是我們歷史上最好的。坦白說，它甚至比許多傳統上所謂成長更快的公司還要好。所以我們非常興奮。我不認為10%或11%能夠長期維持，但我們肯定不會回到過去那種水準附近。

If I can also add to it, Christian, I would just say if you actually look at the data, it's relatively, as James said, balanced across many of these different sectors. But as you think of just the adviser channel, you're seeing not only -- we've, I think, spent a lot of time speaking to the community around assets held away. We are seeing existing clients bringing assets as well as new clients bringing assets to the adviser-led channel. So you are seeing a balance of both.

如果我也可以補充一下，Christian，我想說如果你實際看數據，正如 James 所說，它在許多不同板塊之間相對均衡。但當你只看顧問通路時，你會看到不僅——我們花了很多時間向市場談論「外部持有資產」（assets held away）。我們看到既有客戶把資產帶回來，同時也有新客戶把資產帶到以顧問為主導的通路。因此你看到兩者之間是平衡的。

Okay. For my second question, on expenses, really nice control in the quarter, but all your peers are speaking about elevated expense growth going forward to retain talent and just to invest for growth. Can you talk about just longer term, how you're thinking about balancing sort of that good expense control that we like while continuing to invest for the long term?

好的。我的第二個問題是關於費用。本季費用控制得非常好，但你們所有同業都在談未來為了留才以及投資成長，費用增長會偏高。你能談談從較長期來看，你們如何在維持我們喜歡的良好費用控制的同時，持續為長期投資之間取得平衡嗎？

Yes. I think we have managed expenses well. I think that we always are cognizant of the pressures around expenses, both on the wage side and on the non-comp side. If you think about the comp side, I think we constantly feel that we've paid for performance, and that's sort of been the model that we have. But as you also think about the noncomps, we're investing in our integration. We're investing in technology, resiliency, cyber. And I think we're also putting in place different types of investments as you think about positioning Morgan Stanley up for growth and making sure that we have the right people and the processes in place to do that. But there is also inherent operating margin in -- or excuse me, operating leverage in the model, and that's been something that we've been able to demonstrate, I think, this quarter as well as over the course of the year.

是的。我認為我們把費用管理得很好。我想我們一直都意識到費用方面的壓力，無論是在薪資端或非薪酬端。若談到薪酬端，我們一直秉持按績效付酬，我們的模式就是如此。但同時在非薪酬方面，我們正在投資於整合；投資於科技、韌性與資安。我也認為，當你思考如何讓摩根士丹利具備成長定位、並確保我們有合適的人才與流程到位以達成目標時，我們也在推動不同類型的投資。不過，這個模式本身也存在固有的營運利潤空間——或更正，營運槓桿——而我認為這也是我們本季以及今年以來能夠展現出來的。

Yes. I'd say, Christian, obviously, this is going to be a hot topic because it's all anybody wants to talk about all of a sudden is expense management for 2022. I'm not going to talk about competitors, but you've got to look at business models. I mean, we're a different business model. Just take our Wealth Management business, which is $24-plus billion in revenue. Those advisers are paid on a grid. There is no inflation on it. It's based upon what they produce. Most of our investment bank is similarly paid based on bonus and that's based on what they produce, what our performance is. If that goes up, they go up, which they did this year, and we were thrilled to do that.

是的。我會說，Christian，顯然這會成為熱門話題，因為突然之間大家都只想談 2022 年的費用管理。我不談競爭對手，但你必須看商業模式。我的意思是，我們是不同的商業模式。就拿我們的財富管理業務來說，營收超過 240 億美元。那些理財顧問是依照分級表（grid）領薪，這上面沒有通膨調整；它是依他們的產出而定。我們投資銀行的大部分也是類似，主要以獎金為基礎，而獎金取決於他們的產出、以及我們的績效。如果績效上升，他們的報酬也會上升——今年就是如此，我們也很高興能這麼做。

So we've invested a lot in technology, but we've also bought companies. As I said before, we didn't just buy E*TRADE and Solium and Eaton Vance. We bought technology businesses within them, which we would have been developing ourselves. The online banking business within E*TRADE; the Solium workplace platform, which is basically -- it's basically software programming business; the Parametric platform with Eaton Vance, all of these are things which if we built would have been very expensive. So buy versus build, we made that trade-off. So it's a combination of all of those. We're very comfortable with our expense situation right now. And I don't know. We're just -- I guess, it's a different business model.

所以我們在科技上投入很多，但我們也收購了公司。如我之前所說，我們不只是買了 E*TRADE、Solium 和 Eaton Vance；我們也買下了它們內部的科技業務，而那些原本我們可能會自行開發。E*TRADE 裡的線上銀行業務；Solium 的職場平台，基本上——基本上就是一個軟體程式開發業務；以及 Eaton Vance 的 Parametric 平台，這些如果由我們自行建置都會非常昂貴。因此在「買」與「建」之間，我們做了取捨。所以這是上述各項的綜合。我們對目前的費用狀況非常放心。我也不知道——我們只是——我想，這就是不同的商業模式。

The next question is from Brennan Hawken with UBS.

下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Brennan Hawken。

Sharon, I just wanted to ask a question on the slide that you've got in the deck on the realization of forward curve as well as the liquidity revenue and whatnot. So I'm guessing that the $200 million in liquidity revenue is waivers and the recovery of waivers. But that number seems a little low. Wasn't the waiver in the third quarter $169 million, at least, that's what was in the Q. And so can you maybe help reconcile where you're currently running on waivers versus that $200 million?

Sharon，我想就你們簡報中那張關於遠期曲線實現，以及流動性收入等的投影片問個問題。所以我猜這 2 億美元的流動性收入是費用減免（waivers）以及減免的回收。但這個數字看起來有點低。第三季的減免不是 1.69 億美元嗎，至少 Q 裡是這麼寫的。所以你能否協助釐清一下，你們目前減免的運行水準與這 2 億美元之間如何對得上？

Absolutely. So this $200 million, what we're reflecting here, Brennan, it's a good question, is the forward curve. And so the forward curve has the first rate hike and that we looked at from December 31. So that's in the second quarter. So therefore, it's the amount that you would expect to realize this year, should that forward curve play out. That's the way this slide was illustrated. And just to drive the distinction, though, between what you see in the Q, the Q has all different types of waivers. It's not just money market waivers. But you're right to say that this number on a relative basis would be considered low if you're thinking about a full year context.

當然可以。所以這 2 億美元，我們在這裡反映的是遠期曲線，Brennan，這是個好問題。我們看的遠期曲線是以 12 月 31 日為基準，第一次升息落在第二季。因此，這代表如果遠期曲線如預期發展，你今年預期可實現的金額。這張投影片就是用這種方式呈現的。不過為了凸顯差異，你在 Q 裡看到的是各種不同類型的減免，不只是貨幣市場減免。但你說得對，如果用全年角度來看，這個數字相對會被認為偏低。

Got it. Okay. So we could calibrate both the NII number and the liquidity for it. Okay. Excellent. And then when we think about -- you made a comment, I think, Sharon, when you were talking about the impact in the fourth quarter of Wealth Management margins. Clearly low, right, full year impact of that benefit. But it sounded like what you said was when we were thinking about entering 2022 that the full year is the way to think about it. But that's just like -- I just want to sort of clarify and understand. Did you mean that, that was the jumping off point? Or that that's the right way to think about 2022 in total? Because I'd assume with a lot of the rate benefit coming, continued operating leverage and whatnot, you'd be talking more about it jumping off point than thinking about the full year. But am I reading too much into that?

了解。好的。所以我們可以同時校準淨利息收入（NII）數字和流動性那一項。好的。非常好。接著當我們思考——我想，Sharon，你在談到第四季對財富管理利潤率的影響時有提到一點。顯然那很低，對吧，全年影響是那個效益的完整體現。但聽起來你說的是，當我們思考進入 2022 年時，應該用全年來看。但那就像——我只是想釐清並理解：你的意思是，那是起跳點？還是說，那是用來思考 2022 年整體的正確方式？因為我會假設隨著更多利率效益到來、持續的營運槓桿等等，你會更把它當作起跳點，而不是用全年來看。但我是不是過度解讀了？

No, you're not. Thank you for clarifying that. That's 100% accurate. What we were referring to is the first quarter of 2022 and using this full year number as a good launching off point is sort of setting you up. That's obviously x integration for the first quarter. So yes, as the rate rises, that should increase the margin as it goes forward throughout the course of the year.

不，你沒有。謝謝你釐清。那是 100% 正確。我們指的是 2022 年第一季，並以這個全年數字作為一個很好的起跑點來讓你建立基準。那顯然在第一季是排除整合（x integration）的。所以是的，隨著利率上升，利潤率在全年進程中應該會逐步提高。

Okay. Okay. Hopefully, I can sneak one in because it was a clarification question.

好的。好的。希望我能再塞一個問題，因為那是個釐清問題。

Sure. Don't worry, Brennan.

當然。別擔心，Brennan。

The investment management fee rate was like really pleasantly surprisingly improved despite the fact that we're still waiving fees like we just talked about. Could you talk a little about -- I know Eaton Vance is early and there's still -- that is still progressing and whatnot. But I kind of thought that the third quarter fee rate would have settled fully but there was an improvement. Can you talk about what drove that improvement? Is that sustainable? Or was there some onetime lumpiness in there?

投資管理的費率在我們仍在做費用減免（就像剛剛談到的）之下，卻令人非常驚喜地改善。你能談談——我知道 Eaton Vance 還在早期，仍在推進等等。但我原本以為第三季的費率應該已經完全穩定下來，但卻出現改善。你能談談是什麼驅動了這個改善嗎？這是可持續的嗎？還是其中有一些一次性的波動？

It's the fourth quarter. Those -- you see some of the rates moving up in the fourth quarter, Brennan. But overall, I think as you look forward and you think about fees more broadly, we obviously have a larger asset base. I think it all ends back to this idea of growth. And that's -- I think, really ties to James' slide as well, which really thinks about what are we trying to build leaning into growth and really thinking about creating durable fee revenue streams over time.

是第四季。Brennan，你會看到一些費率在第四季上升。但整體而言，當你往前看、並更廣泛地思考費用時，我們顯然有更大的資產基礎。我認為最終都回到「成長」這個概念。而這——我想也和 James 的投影片相呼應，那張投影片真正思考的是：我們想打造什麼、如何傾向成長、以及如何隨時間建立具韌性的費用型收入來源。

So when you say the fourth quarter, I mean, I was excluding the performance fee because you guys break that out. Are there performance fees that are also embedded in the asset management line, too, that have the seasonality?

所以你說第四季，我的意思是，我把績效費排除在外，因為你們會把它拆開揭露。資產管理那一行裡是否也有內含的績效費，並且具有季節性？

No.

沒有。

No. Okay. So the core fee rate is a good fee rate to think about going forward?

沒有。好的。所以核心費率是未來可以用來思考的合理費率？

Yes. And we also disclosed them in the Q and in the K.

是的。而且我們也在 Q 和 K 裡揭露了。

Your next question is from Glenn Schorr with Evercore ISI Group.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI Group 的 Glenn Schorr。

James, a little tiny qualifier, if I could. Last quarter, I think you made the comment of, well, organic growth shouldn't be likely below 5%. Today, you said more like it won't be like the old days. Is it still like the old days, meaning that when you're in that 4% range pre all the additions and the opportunities you have in hand? Are we still looking at like should be 5 and above? I don't need to pin you down. I would just want to make sure I'm getting the right context.

James，如果可以的話，我想加一個小小的限定。上季我記得你提到，嗯，有機成長不太可能低於 5%。今天你說更像是不會像以前那樣。那還是像以前那樣嗎？也就是說，在你們新增項目與手上機會之前，你們大概在 4% 左右的區間。我們是否仍應該看作是 5% 以上？我不需要你把話說死，我只是想確保我理解的脈絡是對的。

Yes. I don't know what -- I'm not sure I heard you correctly about what you said about what I said last quarter. But let me say what I'm going to say this quarter. Listen, we historically, back in the bad days, we actually had negative growth, right? We lost more money than we brought in. Then for a bunch of years through the early sort of '12 through '15, we're probably running at 1%, 2%. The couple of years before the E*TRADE acquisition and before, frankly, the business really hit its stride, we were sort of running around 3%, 4%, 5%, and we kind of guided 4% to 6% was reasonable for long-term predictions.

是的。我不知道——我不確定我是否正確聽到你說我上季說了什麼。但我先說我這季要說的。聽著，我們在歷史上、在那些不好的日子裡，其實是負成長，對吧？我們流失的資金比帶進來的還多。接著在 2012 到 2015 年初那幾年，我們大概是 1%、2% 的水準。在收購 E*TRADE 之前的幾年，以及坦白說在業務真正步入正軌之前，我們大概在 3%、4%、5% 左右，而我們也曾指引長期預測 4% 到 6% 是合理的。

This past year, I think we grew at 11%, which is -- I mean, it's freakish, right, Glenn? This is -- you're talking about over $400 billion of new money. There are a lot of asset management companies that aren't $400 billion in size. I don't think that's sustainable. I mean, God, I'd love it, but I don't think it's sustainable, but we're not going back to 3%, 4%. I don't know if it's 5%, 6%, 7%, somewhere in that zone. But it's going to be a very healthy growth rate. And you compound that out over what is now $4.9 trillion, you get to really big numbers, which is why, combined with wealth and asset management, we put them together and currently, they're about $6.5 trillion. We can see a path to $10 trillion here, and we want to call that because we believe that's going to happen.

過去這一年，我想我們成長了 11%，也就是——我的意思是，這很誇張，對吧，Glenn？這——你講的是超過 4,000 億美元的新資金。有很多資產管理公司規模都不到 4,000 億美元。我不認為那是可持續的。我的意思是，天啊，我當然希望可以，但我不覺得可持續；但我們也不會回到 3%、4%。我不知道會是 5%、6%、7%，大概在那個區間。但這會是一個非常健康的成長率。而且你把它在目前 4.9 兆美元的基礎上複利推算，就會得到非常大的數字；這也是為什麼，結合財富與資產管理，我們把它們放在一起，目前大約是 6.5 兆美元。我們看得到一條通往 10 兆美元的路徑，而我們想把這個目標說出來，因為我們相信這會發生。

So that's -- we're in that sort of, I don't know, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%. It's -- and that's why I deliberately said in the script but it was too early to put a net new money target out there. We needed to see where this really settled.

所以那就是——我們大概在那種，我不知道，4%、5%、6%、7% 的區間。這——也因此我在講稿裡刻意說，現在就提出一個淨新增資金目標還太早。我們需要看看這最後到底會落在什麼位置。

Perfect. Exactly what I needed. The other one, James, is the long-term goals. If you look at the last slide, I think those are great long-term goals. And if you could do that sustainably, I think you would get your multiple expansion, people would love it.

完美。正是我需要的。另一個問題，James，是長期目標。如果你看最後一張投影片，我覺得那些都是很棒的長期目標。而且如果你能可持續地做到，我想你的估值倍數會擴張，大家會很喜歡。

Would be $200 stock, my friend.

那會是 200 美元的股價，我的朋友。

The high-class problem that you have is you kind of did some of them this year or last year. So maybe if -- again, if I could just have you part some more and just go through how to think about sustainability and what you're building towards what long-term means, just so we don't do the up and down game every quarter. So like, "Oh, wait, you didn't hit your ROTCE target this quarter."

你面臨的高級煩惱是，你今年或去年其實已經做到其中一些了。所以也許——再一次，如果我可以請你再多談一點，帶我們走一遍：該如何思考可持續性、你在打造什麼、以及「長期」到底意味著什麼，這樣我們就不會每季都玩上上下下的遊戲。比如說，「喔，等等，你這一季沒達到你的 ROTCE 目標。」

Yes. Listen, this is the problem with putting goals out there. You hit them and everybody says, "Great, what's the new one?" Our goals last year at 2-year goals was 14 -- take ROTCE of 14% to 16%. We happen to hit 20% this year. It was an unbelievably good year. And if we were really operating with a permanent 20-plus percent ROTCE, the stock would be much higher than this now. In fact, I think it should be higher than this now, but that's a different issue.

是的。聽著，這就是把目標講出來的問題：你達成了，大家就說「很好，那新的目標是什麼？」我們去年提出的兩年期目標是 14——把 ROTCE 從 14% 提升到 16%。我們今年剛好做到 20%。這是一個好到不可思議的年度。而如果我們真的能長期維持 20% 以上的 ROTCE，股價現在會比這高得多。事實上，我覺得現在也應該比這更高，但那是另一個議題。

So we put out 20%-plus. I don't think you're going to find another bank in the world that's putting out a 20%-plus ROTCE goal. And over the long term, we're not saying forever. That's why we separated client assets at $10 trillion as longer term, not to be too cute about it. But we think that, obviously, just mathematically, if you do 5% net new money growth, you have 5% to 6% market appreciation, you're talking about a sort of just mathematically, 4-year to 5-year time zone to get to $10 trillion. By the way, in 2006, our total assets as a company, were $1 trillion. We're now at $6.5ntrillion. So it's not like an impossible lift.

所以我們提出 20% 以上。我不認為你會找到世界上另一家銀行提出 20% 以上的 ROTCE 目標。而從長期來看，我們不是說永遠。這也是為什麼我們把客戶資產 10 兆美元列為更長期的目標，不是要耍小聰明。但我們認為，顯然從數學上來看，如果你做到 5% 的淨新增資金成長，再加上 5% 到 6% 的市場升值，從純數學角度，你大概在 4 到 5 年的時間帶就能到 10 兆美元。順帶一提，2006 年我們公司總資產是 1 兆美元。我們現在是 6.5 兆美元。所以這並不是不可能的挑戰。

On efficiency ratio, when I started in this job, I think our efficiency ratio was in the low 80s. We have grounded down every single year. And our range of the last -- including this year, 2021, '22 was 69% to 72%. We obviously beat that. We had -- as I said, we had a blowout year. But we're consistently of the view of that, notwithstanding all the talk about expense pressure, our efficiency ratio will stay under 70%. That for long-term management and managing growth and investing in the business, you got to balance growth versus expense, I think that's a phenomenal outcome.

在效率比率方面，我剛接這份工作時，我想我們的效率比率在 80% 出頭。我們每一年都在持續壓低。過去——包括今年——2021、'22 的區間是 69% 到 72%。我們顯然超越了那個水準。我們——如我所說，我們有一個爆發性的一年。但我們一貫的看法是，儘管外界一直在談費用壓力，我們的效率比率會維持在 70% 以下。對長期經營、管理成長並投資業務而言，你必須在成長與費用之間取得平衡；我認為那是非常出色的成果。

And Wealth Management, our long-term goals there was 69% to 72%, I'm sorry, 26% to 30%. We've now said 30%-plus. When we get the kick up from the forward curve. We get some of the rate increase in the next couple of years. We finished the integration expenses. You're going to see that number go up. No question about that. So that's the context. Then frankly, I just like the round 20%, [70-30], 10%, felt like a nice clean sheet. Everybody can follow it and that's what we're planning on.

至於財富管理，我們那邊的長期目標是 69% 到 72%，抱歉，是 26% 到 30%。我們現在說 30% 以上。當我們從遠期曲線得到推升、在未來幾年享受到部分利率上升、並且完成整合費用之後，你會看到那個數字上升。毫無疑問。所以這就是背景。然後坦白說，我就是喜歡整數的 20%、[70-30]、10%，感覺像一張乾淨俐落的成績單。大家都能跟得上，而這就是我們的規劃。

The next question is from Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak。

So I was hoping to unpack some of the assumptions underpinning the 30% margin target for the wealth segment. Looking at the adjusted wealth management margin this past year of 27% and the 30% target is certainly of that significant improvement from where you've been run rating over like the past decade-plus. In this new world order, following the E*TRADE acquisition, it does feel a bit conservative when layering in the synergies as well as simply the realization of the forward curve.

我希望拆解一下支撐財富業務 30% 利潤率目標的一些假設。看看去年調整後的財富管理利潤率是 27%，而 30% 的目標確實相較於你過去十多年左右的常態水準有顯著改善。在這個新秩序下，隨著 E*TRADE 收購完成，把協同效應以及遠期曲線的實現納入考量後，這個目標感覺有點保守。

And I wanted to see if we should expect the NII windfall to largely fall to the bottom line. And can you speak to what you believe is an achievable margin goal when contemplating a lot of the tailwinds or benefits you cited from higher run rate organic growth, the upside from higher rates and just the full realization of E*TRADE synergies?

我也想了解，我們是否應該預期 NII（淨利息收入）的意外之財大多會直接落到最終盈餘。以及當你把你提到的許多順風或好處——更高的有機成長常態、利率上升帶來的上行，以及 E*TRADE 協同效應的完全實現——都納入考量時，你認為可達成的利潤率目標會是多少？

Steve, I have to say I love you. You're the first person in history to call a 30%-plus pretax margin Wealth Management as conservative. I mean we started, we're like 3%. So listen, there's nobody in history, I think, has ever generated 30-plus-percent number. I think it was back -- if you go back, it was [Shearson] in the fourth quarter of 1999, I believe, generated a 29% margin. And that was because they were doing, let's just say, a lot of Internet-based buy and selling -- the clients back then. So that was like an artificial period.

Steve，我得說我愛你。你是史上第一個把財富管理 30% 以上稅前利潤率稱為保守的人。我的意思是，我們起步時大概是 3%。所以聽著，我想歷史上沒有人曾經做到 30% 以上的數字。我記得如果你回頭看，應該是——我相信是 1999 年第四季的 [Shearson] 做到 29% 的利潤率。那是因為他們在做——怎麼說呢——大量以網際網路為基礎的買賣交易，客戶在那個時候。那算是一段人為的時期。

Listen, there is the reason we put the plus on it. We don't think 30% is the ceiling. But let's run before we sprint here. We've gone from 5% to 10%, to 15% to 20%, to 25%. 27%, 28% margins with growth, that's a phenomenal story. If we can do 30%, which we will do because of the way rates are going, it gets even better. So 30%-plus, there's no great magic to it. It's just the math of how we think the business plays out the next couple of years. I don't know what the plus is going to be. It might be 0.1 or it might be 5.

聽著，我們之所以加上「以上」，是有原因的。我們不認為 30% 是天花板。但我們先跑再衝刺吧。我們已經從 5% 到 10%，到 15% 到 20%，到 25%。在成長的同時做到 27%、28% 的利潤率，這是個很了不起的故事。如果我們能做到 30%——而我們會做到，因為利率走勢如此——那就更好了。所以 30% 以上，沒有什麼神奇之處。這只是我們對未來幾年業務發展的數學推演。我不知道那個「以上」會是多少。可能是 0.1，也可能是 5。

Fair enough, James. Although last year, I think you had a similar response, and I pressed you on the ROTCE target and it was raised. So hopefully, we'll see a similar outcome this time around.

可以理解，James。雖然去年我記得你也有類似的回應，而我追問你 ROTCE 目標，結果目標被上調了。所以希望這次我們也能看到類似的結果。

Maybe you're clairvoyant, I don't know.

也許你有通靈能力，我不知道。

Just for my follow-up, I wanted to ask about the upcoming changes to the capital regime. There's certainly some significant changes coming down the pike as part of Basel IV. I know we might be jumping the gun. We don't have a proposal yet from the Fed. But I was hoping you could just share some preliminary thoughts on how you see this potentially impacting minimum capital requirements at the firm. And any learnings just from the SACCR experience in terms of your ability to mitigate some of those RWA inflationary pressures?

作為追問，我想問即將到來的資本制度變更。作為巴塞爾 IV 的一部分，確實有一些重大變化正在逼近。我知道我們可能有點操之過急，因為聯準會還沒有提出提案。但我希望你能分享一些初步想法：你認為這可能會如何影響公司層面的最低資本要求？另外，從 SACCR 的經驗來看，你們在緩解某些 RWA（風險加權資產）膨脹壓力方面，有哪些心得？

Sure. Why don't I take the last one first, which I think the overarching theme is really around adaptation. As it specifically relates to SACCR, I think there was data mitigation that we were able to achieve. And I think we're proud of being able to focus and move forward. As it relates to Basel, no surprise that you asked the question, Steve. So it's nice to hear from you on that one.

當然。為什麼我不先回答最後一個，我認為總體主題其實是「適應」。就 SACCR 而言，我們確實能做到一些資料面的緩解。我想我們也為能夠專注並持續推進而感到自豪。至於巴塞爾，Steve，你問這個問題一點也不意外。所以很高興在這一題聽到你的聲音。

But obviously, there is no final rule yet. I think there's -- the difficulty in saying something is that there's often and can be offset between these rules. And so that's something that I would bear in mind as you think through it and as we all think through it. But what I think is really the point is that we have adopted really well. And we also have 280 basis points, I think, as James showed, of excess capital on the CET1 metric. And so I think we're really comfortable with our position, and we're comfortable to better understand the capital rules as they come our way.

但顯然，目前還沒有最終規則。我認為——難點在於，這些規則之間往往、也可能彼此抵銷。因此，當你思考這件事、以及我們大家思考這件事時，這是我會放在心上的。但我認為真正的重點是，我們的採納情況其實非常好。而且我們在CET1指標上也有280個基點的超額資本，我想如James所展示的那樣。因此，我認為我們對自身的資本狀況非常安心，也很有信心能隨著資本規則逐步明朗而更好地理解它們。

The next question is from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的Mike Mayo。

Since James, you're looking for the 20% ROTCE permanently, how much longer do you plan to stay as CEO? And by setting such a high target, are you encouraging some extra risk-taking?

既然James，你是在尋求長期維持20%的ROTCE，你打算再當CEO多久？另外，設定這麼高的目標，是否會鼓勵額外的風險承擔？

I'll take the second question -- second part of the question first. No. We, in fact, did a 20% ROTCE this year, without taking extra risk taking with the movement in rates, the scaling the business, the completed integration to come of Eaton Vance and E*TRADE and the removal of those costs. The moats around the business and the embedded growth we have in net new assets, I don't think these are -- involve risk-taking at all. This is not about growing the balance sheet and growing risk-weighted assets. This is about growing durable fee sources, durable revenues and managing our expenses. I don't know if we're going to achieve it every single year, but we certainly -- it's certainly a goal, and it's a goal for reason. So no, I don't think it involves taking extra risk. I mean, fundamentally, our business model is different, Mike. As you know, we generate $30 billion and it's going up from wealth and asset management that don't involve taking a lot of risk.

我先回答第二個問題——也就是問題的第二部分。不會。事實上，我們今年在沒有承擔額外風險的情況下就做到了20%的ROTCE，這得益於利率變動、業務規模擴張、Eaton Vance與E*TRADE即將完成的整合，以及相關成本的移除。圍繞業務的護城河，以及我們在淨新增資產上的內生增長，我不認為——這些涉及任何風險承擔。這不是在擴張資產負債表、也不是在增加風險加權資產。這是關於擴大可持續的費用來源、可持續的收入，並管理我們的費用。我不知道我們是否能每一年都達成，但這確實——是一個目標，而且這個目標是有原因的。所以不，我不認為這涉及承擔額外風險。從根本上說，我們的商業模式不同，Mike。正如你所知，我們從財富與資產管理業務產生300億美元收入，而且還在上升，而這些業務並不需要承擔很多風險。

Our investment bank -- traditional investment banking doesn't involve taking a lot of risk. Some of the underwriting, obviously, does. Some of the trading does. But a lot of the -- look at equities, a lot of the equities business is buying and selling on behalf of clients. So no, that's not -- the plan is not, after all these years, to dial up the risk. And I'm not going to repeat what I've said many times, I'm not leaving now, and I'm not going to be here in 5 years, and it's up to the Board. We're developing successors. I'll be here a few years. And I want to see this integration is done. I want to see us firmly on this path. And I want to hand it over to somebody else who can take us to the next decade.

我們的投資銀行——傳統投資銀行業務並不需要承擔很多風險。當然，部分承銷業務會有風險，部分交易業務也會有風險。但很多——看看股票業務，其中很大一部分是在代表客戶進行買賣。所以不，這不是——在經歷這麼多年之後要把風險調高的計畫。我也不打算重複我已經說過很多次的話：我現在不會離開，我也不會在5年後還在這裡，這取決於董事會。我們正在培養接班人。我會再待幾年。我希望看到整合完成。我希望看到我們穩穩走在這條路徑上。我也希望把棒子交給能帶領我們走向下一個十年的人。

Great. And then one follow-up. As far as the ins and outs, that's helpful to give the market share. And the numbers speak for themselves, 15% Investment Banking market share, 23% equity share. But on the one hand, I think you're one of the biggest providers to the tech industry. And with tech having some pain recently, I wonder what percent of your Investment Banking business is to the tech sector. And then offsetting that, perhaps there are some other industries that are coming back online after the pandemic.

很好。那再追問一個。關於資金流入流出，這有助於說明市占率。而數字本身也說明了一切：投資銀行市占率15%，股票市占率23%。但另一方面，我認為你們是科技產業最大的服務提供者之一。近期科技業有些陣痛，我想知道你們投資銀行業務中有多少比例來自科技板塊。然後作為抵銷，或許有些其他產業在疫情後正重新恢復。

Sure. I would actually point to the fact that what I said, I think, in the last 2 quarters, is that we're seeing a broadening out of the adviser activity. It's not specific to any one sector. And I think that's been what's really contributed to the healthy pipelines in that business across all the Investment Banking. And then as you look in sales and trading, it's a highly diversified model and has not really pinned down to any one specific sector.

當然。我其實會指出，我在過去兩個季度所說的是，我們看到顧問端的活動正在擴散，不是集中在任何單一產業。我認為這正是促成投資銀行整體業務健康案源管線的重要因素。再看銷售與交易（Sales & Trading），那是一個高度多元化的模式，並沒有真正被鎖定在任何特定產業。

The next question is from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的Matt O'Connor。

Can you just talk a bit big picture on the industry wallet for both banking and trading as rates rise and as the Fed unwinds the balance sheet? Obviously, there's been some benefits the last couple of years, and we're all trying to figure out do we anchor to the more recent last couple of years, go back to pre-COVID, after you think about the wallet. And my follow-up will be on your positioning specifically.

能否從更宏觀的角度談談：隨著利率上升、以及聯準會縮減資產負債表，銀行與交易兩方面的「產業錢包份額」（industry wallet）會如何變化？顯然過去幾年有一些利多，我們都在試著判斷，思考錢包時應該以最近兩年的水準作為錨點，還是回到疫情前。我的追問會聚焦在你們自身的定位。

Sure. I think the -- if you think about the industry wallet, there have been a couple of things that I would mention. One is, obviously, as I said, if you look specifically at Investment Banking, you've seen different types of activity. You see different types of corporates and sponsors, which have been one of the contributors of a greater wallet. But then if you also think about the Sales & Trading franchise and the movement there, the activity has changed.

好的。我認為——如果你思考產業錢包，有幾點我會提到。第一，顯然如我所說，若特別看投資銀行，你會看到不同類型的活動。你會看到不同類型的企業客戶與贊助方（sponsors），這些都是錢包擴大的貢獻因素之一。但如果你也思考銷售與交易（Sales & Trading）特許經營的表現與其中的變化，活動型態也已改變。

I think that you were looking back -- if you think back to pre-2018, '17, '19, there was obviously less activity with central banks all having a very similar approach and one rate. Obviously, as you inject rates rising, you do -- you would expect or one should expect different types of volatility and different diversification amongst products, which could contribute to a bigger or a different type of wallet that you saw in the early 2020 to 2015 period.

我認為你回頭看——如果回想2018年前、2017、2019年，顯然活動較少，因為各國央行的做法非常相似，利率也相對一致。顯然，當你加入利率上升的因素，你確實——會預期、或應該預期不同類型的波動，以及產品之間更大的分散化，這可能促成更大的、或不同類型的錢包，類似你在2020到2015年初期所看到的那樣。

That being said, I mean, obviously, none of us have a crystal ball. I think right now, what we do know is that activity is high. I think there's a lot of client's differentiation and a robustness really in that type of wallet more broadly. But we'll have to see how it goes. And I think the point I was trying to make in my conclusion is we don't know how any of it will impact sentiment. And I think that's the big piece that is out there is a factor that we have to watch.

話雖如此，我的意思是，顯然我們都沒有水晶球。我認為就目前而言，我們知道的是活動水準很高。我認為客戶的差異化需求很多，而更廣泛來看，這類錢包確實相當有韌性。但我們還得看看後續發展。我想我在結語中試圖表達的重點是：我們不知道這一切會如何影響市場情緒。我認為那是目前最大的未知因素，也是我們必須觀察的變數。

Fair enough. And then in terms of your positioning. Obviously, Slide 6 of your deck shows very strong market share gains in the last few years. As you think about the market kind of ebbing and flowing, is the goal to hold the share, and this kind of ties back into some of the expense pressures in the industry where some of your peers are either invested quite a bit this last year or plan to in the future years. How do we think about the segments and you already have such strong share in equities, for example, but fixed income is an area where you've talked about being somewhere in between on the . So how do you think about those businesses from a competitive point of view going forward?

可以理解。那就你們的定位而言。顯然，你們簡報的第6頁顯示過去幾年市占率大幅提升。當你思考市場的起伏變化時，目標是維持市占嗎？這也與產業中的費用壓力相關，你們的一些同業不是在去年大幅投資，就是計畫在未來幾年投資。我們該如何看待各個業務板塊？例如你們在股票業務的市占已經很強，但固定收益是你們談到「介於中間」的位置的領域。所以從競爭角度看，未來你們如何看待這些業務？

So I think that when you -- what we would point to is I think this is a really -- it's a scale-driven model. We've put a lot of moats in place. I think having a global reach across different pieces contributes to the ability to actually hold or gain share across the Investment Banking division and -- or, excuse me, the Institutional Securities franchise more broadly. If you think about the equities, we have a very strong franchise there. Investment banking, as I've said before, we continue to invest in that business.

所以我認為，當你——我們會指出的是，我認為這真的是一個由規模驅動的模式。我們已建立許多護城河。我認為在不同業務領域具備全球覆蓋，有助於我們在投資銀行部門——或更正確地說，在更廣泛的機構證券（Institutional Securities）特許經營中，實際上維持或提升市占。若看股票業務，我們在那裡有非常強的特許經營。如我之前所說，投資銀行方面我們仍持續投資。

And then if you look at fixed income, I think we continue to feel good about that business. our client positioning, and we've gained share over the last couple of years, and we feel good about being rightsized and there for our clients as it relates to those needs.

然後如果你看固定收益，我認為我們仍對該業務感到樂觀。我們的客戶定位，以及我們在過去幾年提升的市占，都讓我們感覺良好；而且就相關需求而言，我們也很有信心我們的規模配置是恰當的，並能為客戶提供服務。

The next question is from Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess, Sharon, I was wondering if, one, we could just get a mark-to-market in terms of an update on all the integration, where we are and when do we expect to fully get that behind us. And just tied to that, I think, James, you've in the past talked about looking at E*TRADE scaling that up globally. Just give us a sense of is that something that can happen in the near term. And what's the optionality there on E*TRADE and taking it global?

我想，Sharon，我想知道第一，能否就整合進度給我們一個按市價衡量（mark-to-market）的最新更新：我們目前在哪個階段、預計何時能完全把這件事拋在身後。以及與此相關，James，你過去談過要把E*TRADE的規模在全球擴大。請讓我們了解這是否能在短期內發生，以及E*TRADE全球化的選擇權（optionality）在哪裡。

So why don't I start on the integration. I think where we -- what we had said was we looked for approximately a 3-year integration period. We have seen some -- and this is specific to E*TRADE. We have seen obviously a portion of the integration-related spend over the course of the last 2 years. We would expect the vast majority of the integration-related expenses to be pulled forward into 2022 with a slight residual in 2023 but most of that happening in 2022. And I think that what you'll see later in the 2023 space will be more on the back end and not really a client -- not really client-facing.

那我先談整合。我們之前說過，我們預期大約需要3年的整合期。我們已經看到一些——而這是針對E*TRADE——顯然在過去兩年中已發生一部分與整合相關的支出。我們預期絕大多數整合相關費用會提前集中在2022年，2023年會有少量尾端，但大部分會發生在2022年。我認為你在2023年後段看到的會更偏向後端工作，而不太——不太是面向客戶的。

As it relates to the actual cost synergies that we've seen, we're in a very good place. I think that it's exceeded our expectations, in terms of the guidance that we gave, in terms of a time line and seeing those come through. But on a holistic basis, we stick to the cost synergy guidance that we gave when we first announced the transaction.

就我們實際看到的成本協同效益而言，我們目前處於非常好的狀態。我認為這已超出我們的預期，無論是就我們所提供的指引、時間表，以及看到這些效益逐步實現的情況而言。但從整體角度來看，我們仍維持在最初宣布這筆交易時所給出的成本協同效益指引。

On the international, I mean, E*TRADE already manages some plans internationally. We don't have immediate plans to take the platform outside the U.S., but it's certainly part of the long-term strategy. So I'd say right now, let's get the integration done. Let's prove out the case here, get the cost synergies we talked about, sort of close the books on that, and then we're looking for further expansion.

至於國際方面，我的意思是，E*TRADE 其實已在國際上管理一些計畫。我們目前沒有立即把平台拓展到美國以外的計畫，但這確實是長期策略的一部分。所以我會說，眼下先把整合完成。先在這裡把案例驗證出來，實現我們談到的成本協同效益，把這件事告一段落，之後再尋求進一步擴張。

Got it. And just a separate question around -- there's some concern that the Fed is behind the curve in terms of monetary policy. How concerned are you in terms of the risk of an accident happening with one of your clients within the capital markets business, if the Fed has to hike faster or get to QT sooner than expected? Any thoughts around that?

了解。另外一個獨立的問題——市場上有些擔憂認為聯準會在貨幣政策上落後於形勢。若聯準會必須比預期更快升息，或更早開始 QT（量化緊縮），就你們資本市場業務而言，你對於某位客戶發生「意外事件」的風險有多擔心？對此有什麼看法嗎？

We've got a lot of clients. So I'm sure some of them are well-positioned for rate hike, some aren't. It's very hard to predict that, that point suggests we're going to get 3 to 4 rate hikes this year and 3 to 4 next year. That feels kind of right. That gets us back to sort of near normal. Normal would be about 10 increases from here, gets us to about 2.5%. If people aren't positioned to manage getting back to normal, then it's kind of -- I mean, it's sort of their problem. It's -- I'm not particularly worried about it, to be honest. And we don't try and project how people are going to change their positioning with what is a fairly predictable set of outcomes, which is we will have a normalization of interest rates at some point in the next couple of years.

我們有很多客戶。所以我相信其中一些對升息準備充分，有些則沒有。這很難預測。就目前的情況來看，今年可能會升息 3 到 4 次，明年也可能 3 到 4 次。這感覺大致合理，能讓利率回到接近正常水準。所謂正常，大概是從現在起再升 10 次左右，利率到約 2.5%。如果有人沒有做好回到正常水準的準備，那某種程度上——我的意思是，這算是他們自己的問題。坦白說，我並不特別擔心。而且對於一個相當可預期的結果組合——也就是未來一兩年某個時間點利率將正常化——我們不會去預測人們會如何調整其部位。

The next question is from Jeremy Sigee with BNP Paribas.

下一個問題來自 BNP Paribas 的 Jeremy Sigee。

I just wanted to ask a couple of follow-up questions. The 2 related questions really about the wealth management growth because, obviously, that's just such a strong theme in what you're doing. The first one is I think the new metric you're giving us there, the retention invested assets. That's an interesting metric and a useful one. Could you talk about how you're driving that, in terms of how you're going to get that higher in terms of how you're approaching those clients and what product you're putting in front of them to drive that higher?

我想追問幾個問題。其實是兩個相關問題，都是關於財富管理的成長，因為顯然這是你們正在做的事情中非常強的主題。第一個是，我想你們提供了一個新的指標：留存的已投資資產（retention invested assets）。這是個有趣且有用的指標。你能談談你們如何推動它嗎？也就是你們將如何透過接觸這些客戶、以及把哪些產品放在他們面前，來把這個指標提高？

And the second question, related, are you seeing any cross-sell or revenue synergy between your 3 wealth management channels, advisory, workplace, self-directed? Or is it still too early for that?

第二個相關問題是：你們在三個財富管理通路——顧問式（advisory）、職場（workplace）、自助式（self-directed）——之間，有看到任何交叉銷售或營收協同效益嗎？還是說現在談這個仍然太早？

Sure. So on the first -- on the new metric, I think that the first driver you're going to see is a lot of the companion accounts, right? So we've talked about the fact that we would expect to give everybody on the U.S., a companion account or, at least, be at 90% by the end of this year, and that's still on track. And what that will allow for is as those assets from stock plans [vest] into a companion account.

當然。先回答第一個——關於這個新指標。我認為你們會看到的第一個驅動因素，是大量的「伴隨帳戶」（companion accounts），對吧？我們談過，我們預期會為美國的每一位客戶提供一個伴隨帳戶，或至少在今年年底前達到 90%，而這仍在進度上。這將使得那些來自股票計畫的資產在[歸屬]後進入伴隨帳戶。

You retain them in a Morgan Stanley self-directed type of way, and then you use -- this will lead to the second question that you asked and sort of tying it together, products like LeadIQ or technology investments like [Project Genome] to better understand our clients and offer us the technology and that agility to give advisers and to provide the right advisers to the right workplace participants. We are already doing that.

你會以摩根士丹利自助式（self-directed）那樣的方式把它們留存下來，然後你會使用——這也會連到你問的第二個問題並把它串起來——像 LeadIQ 這類產品，或像[Project Genome]這樣的科技投資，更好地理解我們的客戶，並提供技術與敏捷性，讓我們能把合適的顧問提供給合適的職場參與者。我們已經在做這件事。

We already have pilots in place where we are giving different workplace individual advisers. And so I would say that this -- the first step is really getting everybody a companion account and that's part of the integration process. And then the second part is using technology to better match clients such that, while they still get client choice, we're able to offer them the full advice network that Morgan Stanley has to offer.

我們已經有試點在進行，為不同的職場客戶配置個別顧問。所以我會說，第一步確實是讓每個人都有一個伴隨帳戶，而這是整合流程的一部分。第二部分則是運用科技更好地匹配客戶，如此一來，在客戶仍保有選擇權的同時，我們也能向他們提供摩根士丹利完整的顧問網路。

That's great. Could I just ask an unrelated follow-up? Do you need to get the CET1 ratio down to support your ROTCE target staying above 20%?

很好。我可以再問一個不相關的追問嗎？你們是否需要把 CET1 比率降下來，才能支撐你們的 ROTCE 目標維持在 20% 以上？

Does it -- no, this is a longer-term target. I think you saw it even this year. So I would just retort with look at this particular year and where we were in terms of our CET1 and, obviously, say, we were able to do it given the market circumstance. I'd say that over time, however, we continue to look at capital. As we think about how do we best use that capital for investment, returning it to shareholders with dividends, looking at buybacks and then other ways and uses of capital as we have over the course of the last decade.

需要嗎——不，這是一個長期目標。我想你今年也看到了。所以我會回應說，看看今年這個特定年度，我們的 CET1 水準如何，而且顯然在當時的市場環境下，我們仍然能做到。話雖如此，隨著時間推移，我們會持續檢視資本配置。當我們思考如何最有效地運用資本進行投資、透過股利回饋股東、考量庫藏股回購，以及在過去十年中我們所採取的其他資本用途與方式。

Your question is from Dan Fannon with Jefferies.

你的問題來自 Jefferies 的 Dan Fannon。

I was hoping you could discuss the profitability of the asset management business now that you've had several quarters of Eaton Vance. And I know that deal wasn't cost-driven, but wondering if there's any additional synergies. And as you think about money market fee waivers coming through, as you mentioned earlier that the incremental margin on that in the context of the overall profitability of that business.

我想請你談談資產管理業務的獲利能力，因為你們已經併入 Eaton Vance 好幾個季度了。我知道那筆交易不是以成本為導向，但想了解是否還有任何額外的協同效益。另外，當你提到貨幣市場基金費用減免（fee waivers）逐步回來時，你如何看待其增量利潤率（incremental margin），以及在該業務整體獲利能力中的意義？

Sure. So I think that the fee waiver sort of speak for themselves, and so I think that gives you a direct number. On the E*TRADE and Eaton Vance integration -- or excuse me, the Investment Management and the Eaton Vance integration, I think that the way to think about it is it wasn't ever a cost savings transaction. The idea was always to marry the platforms, and you've already begun to see that. So if you think about the diversification of the product suite itself, you're in a position where if you see flows in one business go down, you've seen flows go up in other businesses.

當然。我認為費用減免本身就能說明問題，所以它會給你一個直接的數字。至於 E*TRADE 與 Eaton Vance 的整合——或者更正一下，是投資管理（Investment Management）與 Eaton Vance 的整合——我認為應該這樣看：它從來就不是一筆以節省成本為目的的交易。核心想法一直是把平台結合起來，而你已經開始看到這一點。所以如果你看產品組合本身的多元化，你會處於這樣的位置：當某一塊業務的資金流入（flows）下降時，你也看到其他業務的資金流入上升。

And so that's given you this ballast almost in that business specifically. But in addition to that, and I mentioned this in my prepared remarks, if you look at the second thing that we had highlighted a lot when we purchased Eaton Vance was the different distribution networks. So we have an international -- or Morgan Stanley (inaudible) had an international distribution capability that Eaton Vance didn't have.

因此，這幾乎為該業務提供了一種「壓艙石」般的穩定性。但除此之外，我在事先準備的發言中也提到，如果你回顧我們收購 Eaton Vance 時強調的第二點，就是不同的銷售／分銷網路。因此，我們有一個國際——或者說，Morgan Stanley（聽不清）具備 Eaton Vance 所沒有的國際分銷能力。

So a product such as Calvert, where you have a cyclical tailwind in terms of -- and a secular tailwind, in terms of people being interested in that sustainability space, that is going to be sold using our international distribution channels beginning in the first half of year. I think that shows the progress and momentum that we have in place as you're marrying those 2 different sort of companies and they're coming together as one.

因此，像 Calvert 這樣的產品，因為人們對永續領域的興趣帶來了——既有景氣循環的順風，也有結構性的順風——將從今年上半年開始透過我們的國際分銷通路進行銷售。我認為這展現了當你把這兩家不同類型的公司結合、並整合為一體時，我們所具備的進展與動能。

And one of the other attributes you've highlighted is the Parametric opportunity within Wealth. I guess, is it too early to talk about uptake of that, some of the tax advantage strategies they offer, in terms of your wealth clients?

你們另外強調的一個特點，是 Wealth（財富管理）內的 Parametric 機會。我想問，現在談它的採用情況是否還太早？例如他們提供的一些稅務優化策略，對你們財富管理客戶的吸引力如何？

Well, Parametric was already offered and very well received within the Wealth Management platform. I think we're looking for more ways to sell -- to offer that product, I should say, within different parts of the Wealth Management channel.

嗯，Parametric 其實早已在財富管理平台內提供，而且反應非常好。我想我們正在尋找更多方式來銷售——更準確地說，是在財富管理通路的不同部分中，提供該產品。

There are no questions at this time. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you, everyone, for participating. You may now disconnect.

目前沒有問題。各位女士、先生，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線。