通用汽車 (GM) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the General Motors Company Fourth Quarter and Calendar Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded Tuesday, January 30, 2024.

早上好，歡迎參加通用汽車公司 2023 年第四季和日曆年財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次電話會議於 2024 年 1 月 30 日星期二錄製。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ashish Kohli, GM's Vice President of Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議交給通用汽車公司投資者關係副總裁 Ashish Kohli。

Thank you, Amanda, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us as we review GM's financial results for the fourth quarter and calendar year 2023. Our conference call materials were issued this morning and are available on GM's Investor Relations website. We are also broadcasting this call via webcast. Joining us today are Mary Barra, GM's Chair and CEO; and Paul Jacobson, GM's Executive Vice President and CFO. Dan Berce, President and CEO of GM Financial, will also be joining us for the Q&A portion of the call.

謝謝你，阿曼達，大家早安。感謝您加入我們，我們將審查通用汽車第四季度和 2023 日曆年的財務業績。我們的電話會議資料已於今天上午發布，可在通用汽車的投資者關係網站上取得。我們也透過網路廣播來廣播這次電話會議。今天加入我們的是通用汽車董事長兼執行長瑪麗巴拉 (Mary Barra)；以及通用汽車執行副總裁兼財務長保羅‧雅各布森 (Paul Jacobson)。通用汽車金融公司總裁兼執行長 Dan Berce 也將參加我們電話會議的問答部分。

On today's call, management will make forward-looking statements about our expectations. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties include the factors identified in our filings with the SEC. Please review the safe harbor statements on the first page of our presentation as the content of our call will be governed by this language.

在今天的電話會議上，管理階層將對我們的期望做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括我們向 SEC 提交的文件中確定的因素。請查看我們簡報第一頁上的安全港聲明，因為我們的通話內容將受此語言管轄。

And with that, I'm delighted to turn the call over to Mary.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給瑪麗。

Thanks, Ashish, and good morning, everyone. As we begin 2024, I believe GM is well positioned for a year of strong financial performance that builds on everything we accomplished and importantly learned in 2023. Consensus is growing that the U.S. economy, the job market and auto sales will continue to be resilient. At GM, we expect healthy industry sales of about 16 million units. We have an unmatched ICE portfolio in North America, rising EV production on the Ultium platform and GM Financial continues to perform well.

謝謝阿什什，大家早安。在2024 年伊始，我相信通用汽車已做好充分準備，在這一年實現強勁的財務業績，這一業績建立在我們在2023 年所取得的一切成就和重要經驗的基礎上。越來越多的人認為，美國經濟、就業市場和汽車銷售將繼續保持彈性。在通用汽車，我們預計健康的行業銷量約為 1600 萬輛。我們在北美擁有無與倫比的 ICE 產品組合，Ultium 平台上的電動車產量不斷增加，通用汽車金融公司繼續表現良好。

We're building on a foundation of products that our customers love. In 2023, GM sold more vehicles in the U.S. than anyone else. All of our U.S. brands grew their sales year-over-year, and we gained U.S. market share with healthy margins, thanks to stable pricing and incentives that were more than 20% below the industry average. The Chevrolet Bolt EV and EUV had record sales. We led the industry in initial quality for the second year in a row according to J.D. Power. And we now have led the industry in combined pickup, full-size van and full-size SUV sales for 10 consecutive years, making us the leader in the highest ATP quadrant of the market and helping us lead the commercial fleet market.

我們正在以客戶喜愛的產品為基礎。 2023 年，通用汽車在美國的汽車銷量超過其他任何公司。我們所有的美國品牌的銷售額均逐年增長，並且憑藉穩定的定價和比行業平均水平低 20% 以上的激勵措施，我們以可觀的利潤率贏得了美國市場份額。雪佛蘭 Bolt EV 和 EUV 銷量創歷史新高。根據 J.D. Power 的數據，我們連續第二年在初始品質方面領先產業。目前，我們的組合皮卡、全尺寸廂型車和全尺寸 SUV 銷量已連續 10 年保持行業領先，使我們成為市場最高 ATP 象限的領導者，並幫助我們引領商用車隊市場。

And we have passed Honda and Toyota in the most affordable quadrant, thanks to attractive and profitable vehicles like the Chevrolet Trax, which is one of Car and Driver's 10 best trucks and SUVs, and the Buick Envista, which is winning with younger buyers. In fact, more than 1 in 4 Envista customers are between the ages of 18 and 35.

我們在最實惠的象限中超越了本田和豐田，這要歸功於具有吸引力和盈利能力的車輛，例如雪佛蘭Trax（《Car and Driver》雜誌評選的10 款最佳卡車和SUV 之一）和別克Envista（贏得了年輕買家的青睞）。事實上，超過四分之一的 Envista 客戶年齡在 18 歲至 35 歲之間。

The broad-based momentum we have today is important for our future because our customers are the most loyal in the industry. All of this success contributed to full year EBIT adjusted of $12.4 billion and adjusted auto free cash flow of $11.7 billion in 2023, which brings our total to more than $22 billion for '22 and '23.

我們今天擁有的廣泛勢頭對我們的未來非常重要，因為我們的客戶是業內最忠誠的。所有這些成功使 2023 年全年調整後息稅前利潤達到 124 億美元，調整後汽車自由現金流達到 117 億美元，這使我們 22 年和 23 年的總現金流超過 220 億美元。

Almost 2/3 of that cash is being returned to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, including the impact of the $10 billion accelerated share repurchase program that we announced in November. Through the ASR, we immediately retired 215 million common shares in the fourth quarter. Our current share count is less than 1.2 billion, and we are working to reduce this even further to less than 1 billion common shares outstanding, which would be about 600 million fewer than at our peak.

其中近 2/3 的現金透過股利和股票回購返還給股東，其中包括我們在 11 月宣布的 100 億美元加速股票回購計畫的影響。透過 ASR，我們立即在第四季度退役了 2.15 億股普通股。我們目前的股票數量不到 12 億股，我們正在努力將這一數字進一步減少到不到 10 億股已發行普通股，這將比巔峰時期減少約 6 億股。

As we look ahead, our priorities and our commitments are clear. They are to maximize the opportunities we have with our winning ICE portfolio, grow our EV business profitably, deliver strong margins and cash flow and refocus and relaunch Cruise. Across the enterprise, we are taking important steps to deliver on each priority.

展望未來，我們的優先事項和承諾是明確的。他們將最大限度地利用我們獲勝的 ICE 產品組合所擁有的機會，以盈利方式發展我們的電動車業務，提供強勁的利潤和現金流，並重新調整重點並重新推出 Cruise。在整個企業中，我們正在採取重要步驟來實現每個優先事項。

Let's start with our ICE portfolio. Chevrolet's crossover lineup had record sales last year. And this year, we're enhancing 2 of its most important models, which compete in growing segments. For example, Super Cruise will be available on the Traverse for the first time, and we will introduce a new Premium Z71 off-road model.

讓我們從我們的 ICE 產品組合開始。雪佛蘭的跨界車產品線去年創下了銷售紀錄。今年，我們正在增強其兩個最重要的模型，它們在不斷增長的細分市場中競爭。例如，Super Cruise將首次在Traverse上提供，我們將推出新的Premium Z71越野車型。

The 2025 Chevrolet Equinox that we unveiled last week is another great example. It has more standard safety equipment, new truck-inspired styling and a strong focus on technology. And importantly, both the Traverse and Equinox will have higher projected margins than the outgoing model.

我們上週推出的 2025 年雪佛蘭 Equinox 就是另一個很好的例子。它擁有更多標準安全設備、受卡車啟發的新造型以及對技術的高度關注。重要的是，Traverse 和 Equinox 的預期利潤率都將高於即將推出的車款。

Buick and GMC are also launching new crossovers this year to keep our momentum going. In our EV business, we expect our U.S. portfolio to be variable product positive in the second half of the year based on our current expectations for EV demand and production growth. Strong interest in our vehicles, lower commodity prices and other factors will support this.

別克和 GMC 今年也推出了新的跨界車，以保持我們的發展勢頭。在我們的電動車業務中，根據我們目前對電動車需求和產量成長的預期，我們預計下半年我們的美國投資組合將出現積極的可變產品。對我們車輛的強烈興趣、較低的商品價格和其他因素將支持這一點。

Our plan is to produce and wholesale 200,000 to 300,000 Ultium-based Chevrolet, GMC, Cadillac and BrightDrop EVs in North America this year, but we will be guided by customer demand. It's true the pace of EV growth has slowed, which has created some uncertainty. We will build to demand, and we are encouraged that many third-party forecasts have U.S. EV deliveries rising from about 7% of the industry in '23 to at least 10% in 2024, which would mean another year of record EV sales.

我們的計劃是今年在北美生產和批發 20 萬至 30 萬輛基於 Ultium 的雪佛蘭、GMC、凱迪拉克和 BrightDrop 電動車，但我們將以客戶需求為導向。確實，電動車的成長速度已經放緩，這帶來了一些不確定性。我們將根據需求進行生產，令我們感到鼓舞的是，許多第三方預測美國電動車交付量將從23 年佔行業的7% 左右上升到2024 年的至少10%，這將意味著電動車銷量又將創歷史新高。

We believe our competitive position will improve throughout the year based on higher production of the Cadillac LYRIQ, the GMC HUMMER EV, the Chevrolet Blazer EV and the Silverado EV Work Truck. We're also excited to have the Chevrolet Equinox EV and the Silverado EV RST, the GMC Sierra EV Denali and the Cadillac Escalade IQ arriving in showrooms over the course of the year.

我們相信，基於凱迪拉克 LYRIQ、GMC HUMMER EV、雪佛蘭 Blazer EV 和 Silverado EV 工作卡車產量的增加，我們的競爭地位將在全年得到改善。我們也很高興雪佛蘭 Equinox EV 和 Silverado EV RST、GMC Sierra EV Denali 和凱迪拉克 Escalade IQ 將在今年上市。

We are confident in the design and performance of these vehicles. For example, the LYRIQ is driving growth at Cadillac. Its sales have increased sequentially every month since September, and January deliveries should be in line with December despite winter storms across the country.

我們對這些車輛的設計和性能充滿信心。例如，LYRIQ 正在推動凱迪拉克的成長。自 9 月以來，其銷量每個月都在環比增長，儘管全國各地都遭遇冬季風暴，但 1 月的交付量應該與 12 月持平。

We also have more than 10,000 -- or excuse me, 100,000 reservations and orders for EV pickups that we expect to fulfill in '24 and '25. However, if demand conditions change, we'll take advantage of our manufacturing flexibility in Spring Hill and Ramos to build more ICE models and fewer EVs. We can also mix between different EV products at Factory ZERO. Ultimately, we will follow the customer. The supply chain, manufacturing and software changes we have made will support our growth. On the battery front, our Ultium Cells joint venture is at full production in Ohio. And the new plant in Tennessee will begin shipping cells this quarter.

我們還有超過 10,000 個——或者對不起，100,000 個電動皮卡預訂和訂單，我們預計將在 24 年和 25 年完成。然而，如果需求情況發生變化，我們將利用 Spring Hill 和 Ramos 的製造彈性來生產更多的 ICE 車型和更少的電動車。我們也可以在 Factory ZERO 混合不同的電動車產品。最終，我們將跟隨客戶。我們所做的供應鏈、製造和軟體變革將支持我們的成長。在電池方面，我們的 Ultium Cells 合資企業已在俄亥俄州全面投產。田納西州的新工廠將於本季開始運輸電池。

In addition, our supply chain team has moved very quickly to resource 2 minor cell components after the U.S. Treasury published its updated IRA guidelines in December. This change means that new production going forward of the Chevrolet Blazer EV and the Cadillac LYRIQ will qualify for the full $7,500 consumer credit.

此外，在美國財政部於 12 月發布更新的 IRA 指南後，我們的供應鏈團隊已迅速轉向資源 2 次要電池組件。這項變更意味著雪佛蘭 Blazer EV 和凱迪拉克 LYRIQ 的新生產將有資格獲得全額 7,500 美元的消費者信貸。

We work closely with our dealers to ensure consistent pricing for our customers, which we estimate will impact no more than about 25,000 vehicles. Our battery module production is on schedule. The team has improved the automated equipment at our assembly plants used to build modules, and the installation of new high-capacity assembly lines should be complete by midyear.

我們與經銷商密切合作，確保為客戶提供一致的定價，我們估計這將影響不超過約 25,000 輛車輛。我們的電池模組生產如期進行。該團隊改進了我們組裝廠用於建造模組的自動化設備，新的高容量組裝線的安裝應在年中完成。

Our software and services team is on process of resolving the stability issues some customers have experienced with the Chevrolet Blazer EV that impacted their screens and charging experience. And they are working with a huge sense of urgency to lift the stop sales soon. We disappointed these customers, and we know it. We are determined to get the software right, and we will. We have made several organizational and process improvements that will help us deliver the best possible customer experience going forward.

我們的軟體和服務團隊正在解決一些客戶在使用雪佛蘭 Blazer EV 時遇到的穩定性問題，這些問題影響了他們的螢幕和充電體驗。他們正以巨大的緊迫感努力盡快解除停售。我們知道這些客戶讓我們失望了。我們決心讓軟體變得正確，我們也會這麼做。我們進行了多項組織和流程改進，這將幫助我們在未來提供最佳的客戶體驗。

Among several important organizational realignments, we established a software quality division within the software and services team that has been performing a retrospective on the Blazer EV and has improved the current software development and test processes across the enterprise. Outcomes of this activity are getting applied to all programs going forward. And they include improved standardization of the software development and release process, increased focus on test automation at the vehicle level and additional quality gates and metrics for software at the vehicle level.

在幾項重要的組織調整中，我們在軟體和服務團隊內建立了軟體品質部門，該部門一直在對 Blazer EV 進行回顧，並改善了整個企業目前的軟體開發和測試流程。這項活動的成果將應用於未來的所有計劃。其中包括改進軟體開發和發布流程的標準化、更加關注車輛級別的測試自動化以及車輛級別軟體的額外品質門和指標。

From a margin and cash flow perspective, we are making good progress on cost reduction and capital efficiency. Compared with 2022, our fixed costs net of depreciation and amortization will be down $2 billion as we exit 2024, which will offset the impact of higher labor costs. We are also beginning to see savings from winning with simplicity. And all of our current and future programs have embraced this very important way of designing products. Each team is responsible for creating trim series that make vehicles easy to order with the content customers want and far fewer standalone options.

從利潤和現金流量的角度來看，我們在降低成本和提高資本效率方面取得了良好進展。與 2022 年相比，到 2024 年退出時，我們扣除折舊和攤提的固定成本將減少 20 億美元，這將抵消勞動成本上升的影響。我們也開始看到透過簡單取勝可以節省成本。我們目前和未來的所有計劃都採用了這種非常重要的產品設計方式。每個團隊都負責創建裝飾系列，使車輛易於訂購，並提供客戶想要的內容和更少的獨立選項。

By making more equipment standard and trim series with logical price walks, we can eliminate literally thousands of unique part numbers and dozens of software releases. For example, we have eliminated over 1,000 selectable options across our current and near-term product programs, which is reducing hardware, software, ordering and manufacturing complexity and importantly, all the costs associated with them. In 2024, the savings are expected to be about $200 million. To be clear, we're talking about $200 million of savings to execute the same product plan. These savings will grow over time as we apply the discipline to future products like our next-generation full-size pickups.

透過制定更多具有合理價格的設備標準和裝飾系列，我們實際上可以消除數千個獨特的零件號碼和數十個軟體版本。例如，我們在目前和近期的產品計劃中消除了 1,000 多個可選選項，這降低了硬體、軟體、訂購和製造的複雜性，更重要的是，降低了與之相關的所有成本。到 2024 年，預計節省約 2 億美元。需要明確的是，我們討論的是執行相同產品計劃可節省 2 億美元。隨著我們將這項原則應用到未來的產品（例如下一代全尺寸皮卡）中，這些節省將隨著時間的推移而增加。

We're also continuing to balance capital priorities and consistent free cash flow generation. We expect that our 2024 capital spending will be in the $10.5 billion to $11.5 billion, which is roughly flat year-over-year and down considerably from the $13 billion top of our initial 2023 guidance. Our forward plans include bringing our plug-in hybrid technology to select vehicles in North America. Let me be clear, GM remains committed to eliminating tail-type emissions from our light-duty vehicles by 2035.

我們也將繼續平衡資本優先事項和持續的自由現金流產生。我們預計 2024 年的資本支出將在 105 億至 115 億美元之間，與去年同期基本持平，並且比我們最初 2023 年指導的 130 億美元上限大幅下降。我們的未來計劃包括將我們的插電式混合動力技術引入北美的精選車輛。我要澄清的是，通用汽車仍然致力於在 2035 年消除輕型汽車的尾部排放。

But in the interim, deploying plug-in technology in strategic segments will deliver some of the environmental benefits of EVs as the nation continues to build its charging infrastructure. We are timing the launches to help us comply with the more stringent fuel economy and tailpipe emission standards that are being proposed. And we plan to deliver the program in a capital- and cost-efficient way because the technology is already in production in other markets. We'll have more to share about this down the road.

但在此期間，隨著國家繼續建立充電基礎設施，在戰略領域部署插電式技術將帶來電動車的一些環境效益。我們正在安排發佈時間，以幫助我們遵守正在提議的更嚴格的燃油經濟性和廢氣排放標準。我們計劃以資本和成本有效的方式交付該項目，因為該技術已在其他市場投入生產。我們將在未來分享更多相關內容。

Moving to Cruise. Last week, we released the results of the third-party reviews, and we've already begun to implement significant changes to build a better Cruise. We are committed to earning back the trust with our regulators and the public through our actions. Our planned 2024 investment in Cruise reflects our more deliberate and cadence go-to-market strategy. And we are developing new financial targets and a new road map.

搬到克魯斯。上週，我們發布了第三方審核結果，我們已經開始實施重大變更以打造更好的 Cruise。我們致力於透過我們的行動贏回監管機構和公眾的信任。我們計劃 2024 年對 Cruise 的投資反映了我們更深思熟慮和更有節奏的市場進入策略。我們正在製定新的財務目標和新的路線圖。

Spending will be down considerably this year, but we will continue to invest in the people who are advancing the software, specialized hardware and AI capabilities. This reflects our commitment to our vision, which is to deliver the safety benefits of self-driving technology and a scalable, profitable business. I look forward to sharing our timetable for returning Cruise AVs to the road soon.

今年的支出將大幅下降，但我們將繼續投資於推進軟體、專業硬體和人工智慧能力的人員。這反映了我們對願景的承諾，即提供自動駕駛技術的安全優勢和可擴展、盈利的業務。我期待盡快分享我們將 Cruise AV 重新上路的時間表。

To summarize, we learned a lot in 2023. And those learnings are helping us build our strengths and addressing our challenges. Everyone on the team is committed to building on our momentum and creating shareholder value.

總而言之，我們在 2023 年學到了很多。這些經驗正在幫助我們增強優勢並應對挑戰。團隊中的每個人都致力於鞏固我們的勢頭並創造股東價值。

You'll see in our proxy statement this spring, executive compensation is tied even more closely to delivering our comprehensive ICE, EV, AV and software plans while meeting our financial targets. So our goals are truly aligned with yours.

您將在今年春天的委託書中看到，高階主管薪酬與我們在實現財務目標的同時提供全面的 ICE、EV、AV 和軟體計劃更加緊密地聯繫在一起。因此，我們的目標與您的目標真正一致。

Before I turn the call over to Paul, I would like to share some thoughts about our next Investor Day. Because of the significant changes that are underway at GM and Cruise, we think it makes sense to wait until later in the year to host an event. This will give our software team the time to focus on software for our upcoming launches. And we will be able to share more tangible proof points on all 4 pillars of our strategy: ICE, EV, AV and software. When we do get together, we will show you what we've done, not just tell you what we're going to do. In the meantime, we've already provided a road map for EV profitability in 2025. And we'll share updates on Cruise as we finalize the technology and relaunch plans.

在我把電話轉給保羅之前，我想分享一些關於下一個投資者日的想法。由於通用汽車和 Cruise 正在發生重大變化，我們認為等到今年稍後舉辦活動是有意義的。這將使我們的軟體團隊有時間專注於即將推出的軟體。我們將能夠分享關於我們策略的所有 4 個支柱的更切實的證據：ICE、EV、AV 和軟體。當我們聚在一起時，我們將向您展示我們已經做了什麼，而不僅僅是告訴您我們將要做什麼。同時，我們已經提供了 2025 年電動車獲利路線圖。當我們最終確定技術和重新啟動計劃時，我們將分享 Cruise 的最新動態。

With that, I'll turn it over to Paul to go through our 2023 financials and provide more details on our 2024 outlook. Then we'll take your questions.

接下來，我將把它交給 Paul，讓他檢查我們 2023 年的財務狀況，並提供有關 2024 年前景的更多詳細資訊。然後我們將回答您的問題。

Thank you, Mary, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate you all joining us this morning. I'd like to begin by recognizing the entire GM team for what they accomplished in 2023. And when you look back over the last couple of years, the results show an impressive trend in revenue growth, EPS consistency and cash generation.

謝謝你，瑪麗，大家早安。我感謝大家今天早上加入我們。首先，我想對整個通用汽車團隊在 2023 年取得的成就表示認可。當你回顧過去幾年時，結果顯示了收入成長、每股盈餘一致性和現金產生方面令人印象深刻的趨勢。

For the full year, our EBIT adjusted of $12.4 billion came in slightly above the midpoint of the range we guided to in November, thanks to the continued strength of the core business. We grew revenue by 10% year-over-year to a record $172 billion and generated $7.68 of EPS diluted adjusted.

由於核心業務的持續強勁，全年調整後的息稅前利潤為 124 億美元，略高於 11 月份指導範圍的中點。我們的營收年增 10%，達到創紀錄的 1,720 億美元，攤薄調整後每股收益為 7.68 美元。

A key focus has been profitable growth. And for the full year, we demonstrated this by growing U.S. market share by 30 basis points while keeping incentives well below industry averages. It's important to mention the 2023 actions we've taken to reduce fixed costs and the progress made on the $2 billion net cost reduction program. For example, automotive engineering was reduced by $400 million driven by portfolio simplification, realizing the benefits from winning with simplicity as well as our drive to virtual engineering.

一個關鍵焦點是獲利成長。在全年，我們透過將美國市場份額增長了 30 個基點，同時保持激勵措施遠低於行業平均水平來證明了這一點。值得一提的是，我們在 2023 年為降低固定成本而採取的行動以及 20 億美元淨成本削減計劃所取得的進展。例如，在產品組合簡化的推動下，汽車工程減少了 4 億美元，實現了以簡單取勝的優勢以及我們對虛擬工程的推動。

Marketing spend was reduced by $500 million, and we expect another $400 million this year. And we saw approximately $500 million from lower BrightDrop and other growth business spend along with the impact of the voluntary separation program across the enterprise. These $1.4 billion of fixed cost reductions were partially offset by $400 million of higher depreciation and amortization, meeting our target to achieve half of the $2 billion program in 2023.

行銷支出減少了 5 億美元，我們預計今年將再減少 4 億美元。我們看到 BrightDrop 和其他成長業務支出的減少以及自願離職計畫對整個企業的影響約為 5 億美元。這 14 億美元的固定成本削減被 4 億美元的折舊和攤銷增加部分抵消，實現了我們在 2023 年實現 20 億美元計劃一半的目標。

We began 2023 with $24 billion of auto cash and marketable securities, generated full year adjusted auto free cash flow of $11.7 billion and returned approximately $12 billion to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, including the impact of the $10 billion accelerated share repurchase program initiated in Q4.

2023 年伊始，我們擁有240 億美元的汽車現金和有價證券，全年調整後的汽車自由現金流為117 億美元，並透過股息和股票回購向股東返還約120 億美元，其中包括啟動的100 億美元加速股票回購計畫的影響在第四季。

Coming into 2024, we are well positioned with roughly $20 billion of auto cash and marketable securities. And we'll appropriately balance our capital allocation priorities with the plan to continue to return capital to our shareholders through repurchases and our new higher dividend rate.

進入 2024 年，我們處於有利地位，擁有約 200 億美元的汽車現金和有價證券。我們將適當平衡我們的資本配置優先事項與繼續透過回購和新的更高股息率向股東返還資本的計劃。

Let's get into Q4 results. Total company revenue was $43 billion, consistent year-over-year despite the impact of the strike. However, we did have a number of cost items that we do not expect to reoccur in 2024 that impacted our margin performance in the quarter. We achieved $1.8 billion in EBIT adjusted, 4.1% EBIT-adjusted margins and $1.24 in EPS diluted adjusted. These results were also impacted by the strike, which had a $900 million EBIT-adjusted impact in Q4 and a $1.1 billion impact for the full year, primarily from losing an estimated 95,000 units of production.

讓我們看看第四季的結果。儘管受到罷工的影響，公司總收入為 430 億美元，與去年同期持平。然而，我們確實有一些成本項目預計不會在 2024 年再次發生，這影響了我們本季的利潤率表現。我們實現了 18 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤、4.1% 的息稅前調整利潤率和 1.24 美元的攤薄調整後每股收益。這些結果也受到罷工的影響，第四季度的息稅前利潤調整後的影響為 9 億美元，全年的影響為 11 億美元，主要是由於預計損失了 95,000 單位的產量。

Additionally, we increased our inventory valuation allowances by $1.1 billion to remeasure battery cell and EV inventory held at year-end. This adjustment was significantly larger in Q4 versus prior quarters driven by a combination of increasing cell production in preparation for our 2024 EV acceleration and holding more EVs in company inventory. Adjustments for the full year totaled $1.7 billion. We expect this to be substantially lower in 2024 as we continue to make progress toward our EBIT margin targets on EVs.

此外，我們將庫存估值備抵增加了 11 億美元，以重新衡量年底持有的電池和電動車庫存。與前幾季度相比，第四季度的調整幅度明顯更大，這是由於為 2024 年電動車加速發展而增加電池產量以及在公司庫存中持有更多電動車所致。全年調整總額為 17 億美元。隨著我們繼續朝著電動車息稅前利潤率目標取得進展，我們預計 2024 年這一數字將大幅降低。

North America delivered Q4 EBIT adjusted of $2 billion, down $1.6 billion year-over-year driven primarily by the $900 million strike impact and $1 billion of inventory adjustments I just discussed. The performance was also driven by higher pricing and lower fixed costs, which more than offset mix headwinds.

北美地區第四季調整後息稅前利潤為 20 億美元，年減 16 億美元，這主要是由於我剛才討論的 9 億美元的罷工影響和 10 億美元的庫存調整。較高的定價和較低的固定成本也推動了業績，這足以抵消混合阻力。

North America margin of 8.7% was within our targeted 8% to 10% range for the full year and included a 1.6 percentage point impact from the strike and the inventory adjustments. Part of this performance is from proactively managing our inventory levels, helping to minimize incentives.

北美地區的利潤率為 8.7%，處於我們全年 8% 至 10% 的目標範圍內，其中包括罷工和庫存調整帶來的 1.6 個百分點的影響。這項業績的部分原因在於主動管理我們的庫存水平，有助於最大限度地減少激勵措施。

I'm pleased that we ended the year at 50 days of U.S. inventory, which is at the low end of our 50- to 60-day target range and incentives that were more than 20% below the industry average. GM International had another solid quarter with Q4 EBIT adjusted of $300 million, which was consistent year-over-year. I want to thank the entire international team for another year of good execution and delivering $1.2 billion of EBIT adjusted.

我很高興我們年底的美國庫存為 50 天，這是我們 50 至 60 天目標範圍和激勵措施的低端，比行業平均低 20% 以上。通用汽車國際公司的季度業績表現強勁，第四季度調整後的息稅前利潤為 3 億美元，與去年同期持平。我要感謝整個國際團隊又一年的良好執行力，並實現了 12 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤。

GM Financial also performed well with Q4 EBT adjusted of $700 million, down slightly year-over-year. Full year results were $3 billion, at the top end of the $2.5 billion to $3 billion guidance range. Portfolio credit metrics continue to be strong in part due to a predominantly prime credit mix with net charge-offs up slightly due to moderation in credit performance. GM Financial has consistently been an integral part of the business, supporting our customers, supporting our dealers and paying dividends of $1.8 billion to GM in 2023. Cruise expenses were $800 million in the quarter, up $300 million year-over-year and similar to the spend level in Q3.

通用汽車金融公司也表現出色，第四季調整後的息稅前利潤為 7 億美元，較去年同期略有下降。全年業績為 30 億美元，處於 25 億至 30 億美元指引範圍的上限。投資組合信貸指標持續強勁，部分原因是主要信貸組合占主導地位，而淨沖銷因信貸表現放緩而略有上升。通用汽車金融公司一直是該業務不可或缺的一部分，為我們的客戶、經銷商提供支持，並在2023 年向通用汽車支付18 億美元的股息。本季的郵輪費用為8 億美元，比去年同期增加3 億美元，與去年同期相似。第三季的支出水準。

So let's look ahead to 2024. We expect EBIT adjusted in the $12 billion to $14 billion range, EPS diluted adjusted to be in the $8.50 to $9.50 range, including an estimated $1.45 per share benefit from last year's accelerated share repurchase based on the current share price, which will be partially offset by roughly $0.50 headwind from a higher tax rate and lower interest income on lower cash balances. And adjusted automotive free cash flow in the $8 billion to $10 billion range for the year.

因此，讓我們展望2024 年。我們預計EBIT 調整後將在120 億美元至140 億美元範圍內，攤薄後每股收益調整後將在8.50 美元至9.50 美元範圍內，其中包括基於當前股份去年加速股票回購帶來的每股收益預計1.45 美元較高的稅率和較低的現金餘額所帶來的利息收入下降將部分抵銷約 0.50 美元的不利影響。調整後的全年汽車業自由現金流在 80 億至 100 億美元之間。

I want to summarize a few items in 2023 that we don't expect to repeat and will help to contribute to our higher outlook for this year despite some of the potential macro headwinds. These include the $800 million EBIT-adjusted impact from the LG agreements. And as a reminder, this will save us an additional $1,000 per vehicle going forward on our path to EV profitability. $1.1 billion EBIT-adjusted impact from the strike and a substantial amount of the $1.7 billion of net realizable value adjustments as we work through the cell inventory, improve EV profitability and benefit from lower lithium prices.

我想總結 2023 年的一些事項，儘管存在一些潛在的宏觀阻力，但我們預計這些事項不會重複，並將有助於我們今年實現更高的前景。其中包括 LG 協議帶來的 8 億美元的息稅調整後影響。提醒一下，這將為我們在電動車盈利之路上的每輛車額外節省 1,000 美元。罷工帶來 11 億美元的息稅前調整影響，以及 17 億美元的可變現淨值調整中的很大一部分，因為我們正在處理電池庫存、提高電動車盈利能力並從較低的鋰價中受益。

In light of the current macro environment, we anticipate a market similar to 2023 with total U.S. industry volumes of around 16 million units. We expect wholesale volume to grow as we rebound from the impact of the strike and continue our track record of market share gains primarily from higher EV volume. However, we do assume mix headwinds from our ICE production driven by anticipated actions to proactively manage full-size truck inventory levels. We also assume a 2% to 2.5% pricing headwind year-over-year. But overall, we remain confident in our ability to balance production, inventory levels and profitability while growing revenues and sustain our North America margins in the 8% to 10% range.

鑑於目前的宏觀環境，我們預計到 2023 年，美國產業總銷量將達到 1,600 萬台左右。我們預計，隨著我們從罷工的影響中反彈，批發量將會成長，並繼續我們的市佔率成長記錄，主要來自於電動車銷量的增加。然而，我們確實假設我們的內燃機生產會受到預期行動的推動，以主動管理全尺寸卡車庫存水準。我們也假設定價年將出現 2% 至 2.5% 的逆風。但總體而言，我們仍然對平衡生產、庫存水平和盈利能力、同時增加收入並將北美利潤率維持在 8% 至 10% 範圍內的能力充滿信心。

We are on track to realize the remaining $1 billion of net fixed cost savings with the benefits coming from similar areas to last year, including marketing, engineering and the full year benefit of the actions we took in 2023. We expect $1.3 billion in higher labor costs along with logistics being a slight headwind year-over-year primarily due to -- driven by higher finished vehicle shipping costs. Cruise expenses are expected to be around $1 billion lower, given the new operational plan Mary mentioned earlier.

我們預計將實現剩餘的 10 億美元淨固定成本節省，這些收益來自與去年類似的領域，包括行銷、工程以及我們在 2023 年採取的行動的全年收益。我們預計勞動力增加 13 億美元成本和物流同比略有下降，這主要是由於成品車運輸成本上升所致。鑑於瑪麗之前提到的新營運計劃，郵輪費用預計將減少約 10 億美元。

In November, we gave an update on our path to EV profitability with an estimated EBIT margin improvement of more than 60 percentage points and a lower overall EV loss in '24 compared to '23 even when you exclude the impact of the inventory adjustments. This will largely be driven by higher EV volumes and fixed cost leverage from both EV and battery cell manufacturing along with the benefit of all of our North America volume being on the Ultium platform. We are already seeing an improvement in cell costs today driven by significantly lower raw material prices and better pricing on cells produced at our first battery JV plant from higher capacity utilization.

11 月，我們更新了電動車獲利之路，預計24 年的息稅前利潤率將提高60 個百分點以上，與23 年相比，即使排除庫存調整的影響，24 年的整體電動車損失也會更低。這主要是由於電動車銷量的增加以及電動車和電池製造的固定成本槓桿，以及我們在 Ultium 平台上所有北美銷量的優勢所推動的。今天，我們已經看到電池成本有所改善，這是由於原材料價格大幅下降以及我們第一家電池合資工廠生產的電池因產能利用率提高而獲得更好的定價所推動的。

For GM International, we expect relative stability in our South America and Middle East operations. However, we anticipate ongoing pressure in China, including the plan to reduce production in Q1 to balance dealer inventory levels. These actions will likely result in Q1 China equity income being a slight loss with a return to profitability starting in Q2.

對於通用汽車國際公司而言，我們預期南美洲和中東業務相對穩定。然而，我們預計中國將面臨持續的壓力，包括計劃在第一季減少產量以平衡經銷商庫存水準。這些行動可能會導致第一季中國股票收入略有虧損，但從第二季開始將恢復獲利。

For GM Financial, we expect EBT-adjusted again in the $2.5 billion to $3 billion range with credit performance and used vehicle prices returning to normal throughout the year along with earning asset growth from retail loan originations and the commercial loan portfolio. We are forecasting another year of robust automotive adjusted free cash flow, but we anticipate modest year-over-year headwinds from '23 working capital benefits that we assume will not repeat and the timing of payments associated with accruals recognized last year, for example, warranty, tax and higher assumed inventory levels.

對於通用汽車金融公司，我們預計EBT調整後將再次達到25億至30億美元的範圍，信貸表現和二手車價格全年將恢復正常，同時零售貸款發放和商業貸款組合的盈利資產也會增長。我們預測汽車業調整後的自由現金流又將強勁，但我們預計23 年營運資本收益將帶來適度的同比阻力，我們認為這種收益不會重複，以及與去年確認的應計費用相關的付款時間，例如，保固、稅收和更高的假設庫存水準。

From a modeling perspective, remember that Q1 is our seasonally weakest cash flow quarter of the year. We expect our capital spend to be similar to 2023, inclusive of $500 million to $1 billion of investments in our battery JVs.

從建模的角度來看，請記住，第一季是我們一年中現金流最弱的季度。我們預計我們的資本支出將與 2023 年相似，其中包括對電池合資企業的 5 億至 10 億美元投資。

Our 2024 effective tax rate is assumed to be in the range of 18% to 20%, up from last year primarily due to the global mix of earnings and lower R&D credits primarily due to lower Cruise spend. And our full year EPS guidance assumes a weighted average fully diluted share count of slightly below 1.15 billion shares. This includes the impact of the remaining shares to be purchased through the ASR, which we expect will reduce our fully diluted share count to below 1.1 billion shares once completed. The actual share count will depend on several factors that impact the final ASR settlement, including the average share price during execution and excludes the impact of any incremental share repurchases beyond the ASR.

我們的 2024 年有效稅率預計在 18% 至 20% 範圍內，高於去年，這主要是由於全球收入組合以及主要由於遊輪支出減少而導致的研發信貸減少。我們的全年每股盈餘指引假設加權平均完全稀釋股數略低於 11.5 億股。這包括透過 ASR 購買的剩餘股份的影響，我們預計一旦完成，我們的完全稀釋股份數量將減少至 11 億股以下。實際股份數量將取決於影響最終 ASR 結算的幾個因素，包括執行期間的平均股價，並排除 ASR 之外任何增量股份回購的影響。

In closing, we know the EV market is not going to grow linearly. And we are prepared to flex between ICE and EV production, given our unique manufacturing capabilities to balance inventory levels and to build customer demand. This will help support pricing and our continued incentive discipline. While we have faced some challenges in our EV transition, we are actively working to address them and remain excited about our future and look forward to a successful 2024.

最後，我們知道電動車市場不會線性成長。鑑於我們獨特的製造能力來平衡庫存水準和滿足客戶需求，我們準備在內燃機和電動車生產之間進行靈活調整。這將有助於支持定價和我們持續的激勵紀律。雖然我們在電動車轉型過程中面臨一些挑戰，但我們正在積極努力解決這些挑戰，並對我們的未來保持興奮，並期待 2024 年取得成功。

This concludes our opening comments, and we'll now move to the Q&A portion of the call.

我們的開場評論到此結束，現在我們將進入電話會議的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question from the line comes from Itay Michaeli with Citi.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Itay Michaeli。

Congratulations. Just a couple of questions on the outlook. First, maybe can you share what you're assuming for end-of-year U.S. dealer inventory days supply? And on the pricing, Paul, I think you mentioned 2%, 2.5%. Maybe talk a bit of what you're assuming for individual segments there?

恭喜。只是關於前景的幾個問題。首先，您能否分享一下您對美國經銷商年末庫存天數供應的假設？關於定價，Paul，我想你提到了 2%、2.5%。或許可以談談您對各個細分市場的假設？

Yes, Itay, thanks for your comments and your questions. First, on the inventory question, what I would say is we're continuing to pursue our targeted range of 50 to 60 days on hand of inventory. I think the team has done a really good job of balancing that. And I think that's provided some of the ability to be disciplined with incentives and clearly, has, I think, resulted in a competitive advantage for us that we've utilized for the last couple of years. As we think about that 2% to 2.5%, similar to what we've done for the last couple of years, I would call that a planning assumption rather than an expectation of where we see pricing. We want to make sure that we do that to make sure -- to ensure that we can hit our targets, generate the cash flow that's needed for investment and drive the free cash flow performance.

是的，Itay，感謝您的評論和問題。首先，關於庫存問題，我想說的是，我們將繼續追求現有庫存 50 至 60 天的目標範圍。我認為團隊在平衡這一點方面做得非常好。我認為這提供了一些透過激勵來約束的能力，而且我認為顯然這為我們帶來了過去幾年我們一直在利用的競爭優勢。當我們考慮 2% 到 2.5% 時，與我們過去幾年所做的類似，我將其稱為規劃假設，而不是我們對定價的預期。我們希望確保我們這樣做是為了確保我們能夠實現我們的目標，產生投資所需的現金流量並推動自由現金流績效。

So as similar to years past, if we don't see that, I would expect that we can get some upside into the numbers that we've talked about. So we haven't gone through and assigned an expectation to any particular categories. That's something top-sided we do in the planning process. I hope that helps.

因此，與過去幾年類似，如果我們沒有看到這一點，我希望我們能夠從我們討論的數字中獲得一些好處。因此，我們還沒有對任何特定類別進行分析和分配期望。這是我們在規劃過程中所做的事情。我希望這有幫助。

It does help. A quick follow-up. On the second half target on EV positive VP per unit, can you just talk about what you're assuming for the broader competitive environment, maybe how much cushion you have on the price mix side and still be able to hit those targets?

它確實有幫助。快速跟進。關於下半年每單位電動車正副總裁的目標，您能否談談您對更廣泛的競爭環境的假設，也許您在價格組合方面有多少緩衝並且仍然能夠實現這些目標？

So without getting into very detailed specifics because obviously, it can get quite complicated, what I would say is we feel confident about hitting that variable profit positive target in probably the low 200,000 units of the range that Mary mentioned. That's based on a pretty consistent demand profile. So as we've seen the demand for the vehicles that we're producing and the way that customers have received them, we think we can keep that up. So to the extent that we see any pricing softness or demand retreat, we might have to revisit that. But we feel very good about the trajectory that we're on right now.

因此，無需討論非常詳細的細節，因為顯然，它可能會變得非常複雜，我想說的是，我們有信心實現可變利潤正目標，可能是瑪麗提到的範圍的低 200,000 單位。這是基於相當一致的需求概況。因此，當我們看到對我們生產的車輛的需求以及客戶接收車輛的方式時，我們認為我們可以保持這種勢頭。因此，如果我們看到任何定價疲軟或需求下降，我們可能不得不重新審視這一點。但我們對目前的發展軌跡感覺非常好。

Our next question comes from Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

Wanted to just first ask like from the outside at least, it looks like there's a lot more scrutiny being applied to capital allocation. I'm thinking about the posture that you're talking about for Cruise and BrightDrop and the adjustments to EV spending. So my question is just on the surface, it looks like the pendulum has moved a little bit from growth to cash flow. Are these kind of temporary changes or are you kind of thinking about adjustments to GM strategy?

我想首先至少從外部詢問一下，看起來資本配置受到了更多的審查。我正在考慮您所說的 Cruise 和 BrightDrop 的姿態以及電動車支出的調整。所以我的問題只是表面上的，看起來鐘擺已經從成長轉向了現金流。這些是暫時的變化還是您正在考慮調整通用汽車的策略？

Rod, thanks for your comments. I wouldn't -- necessarily it's a change in our strategy. I think as we've continued to progress in the EV transformation, we have found more ways to be much more efficient with capital. And I do want to correct the statement I made earlier where I said we'd eliminated 1,000 selectable options across our portfolio. It was really 100, although I think I have a new stretch target for the team as we take the initiative global.

羅德，謝謝你的評論。我不會——這必然是我們策略的改變。我認為，隨著我們在電動車轉型方面不斷取得進展，我們已經找到了更多提高資本效率的方法。我確實想糾正我之前所做的聲明，我說我們已經在我們的投資組合中消除了 1,000 個可選選項。實際上是 100，儘管我認為隨著我們在全球範圍內採取主動，我為團隊制定了一個新的延伸目標。

But it's initiatives like that of continuing to look for ways to optimize the capital. When you look at our ICE portfolio, the investment that we made in the last part of the last decade really sets up -- sets us up well to have all new products coming off the existing platforms, whether it's full-size trucks, full-size SUVs, midsize SUVs, et cetera. And so we're looking to continue to be very focused with capital to make sure it's going to generate the right return. And I would also say we are prioritizing continuing to return cash to our shareholders as we go through this transformation because we think the strength of our business, especially our ICE business, allows us to do that.

但它的舉措類似於繼續尋找優化資本的方法。當你看看我們的ICE 產品組合時，我們在過去十年的最後一段時間裡所做的投資確實為我們奠定了良好的基礎，使所有新產品都可以從現有平台上推出，無論是全尺寸卡車、全尺寸卡車大型SUV、中型SUV等。因此，我們希望繼續高度關注資本，以確保其能夠產生適當的回報。我還想說，在經歷這項轉型時，我們會優先考慮繼續向股東返還現金，因為我們認為我們的業務實力，特別是我們的 ICE 業務，使我們能夠做到這一點。

So it's not a change in strategy. I would say on some of the business you mentioned like BrightDrop and others, as we look at the business, I think it was important as we started them to give them some room, but as we got clarity on where the real opportunity for GM was, we can make those businesses much more efficient. And we're going to continue to do that to work on our cost structure to make every dollar of capital count. But we still see growth opportunity. I mean we had a revenue growth of 10% last year. So we're still -- we still have many initiatives in which to grow. We're just going to do it in a very optimized way.

所以這不是策略的改變。我想說的是，關於你提到的一些業務，例如Br​​ightDrop 和其他業務，當我們審視這些業務時，我認為重要的是，我們開始為他們提供一些空間，但當我們弄清楚通用汽車的真正機會在哪裡時，我們可以讓這些業務更有效率。我們將繼續這樣做，以改善我們的成本結構，使每一美元的資本都發揮作用。但我們仍然看到成長機會。我的意思是我們去年的收入成長了 10%。所以我們仍然——我們仍然有許多需要成長的舉措。我們將以一種非常優化的方式來做這件事。

Our next question comes from Dan Ives with Wedbush.

我們的下一個問題來自丹艾夫斯和韋德布希。

So can you just talk about Cruise? What are sort of the targets for this year that we should think about that would just give more confidence that we've turned the corner there? I mean from an investor perspective and how you look into that long term. I mean you are committed to Cruise, right? That's the best way to think about that one to get through some of these situations.

那你能談談克魯斯嗎？我們應該考慮今年的哪些目標才能讓我們更有信心我們已經渡過難關？我的意思是從投資者的角度以及你如何看待長期來看。我的意思是你致力於郵輪，對嗎？這是解決某些情況的最佳思考方式。

Yes. Appreciate the question, Dan. We are committed to Cruise. When we look at the technology, the foundational technology is sound. We had already demonstrated and validated externally that Cruise technology is already safer than a human driver. One of the things we've learned is humans expect technology computers to be much more safe than their expectations that they have for other people. And with that knowledge, we are already working on what the level of the technology needs to be to meet the consumers' expectations. We think we can do that.

是的。感謝這個問題，丹。我們致力於郵輪。當我們審視科技時，基礎技術是健全的。我們已經在外部證明和驗證了巡航技術已經比人類駕駛員更安全。我們了解到的一件事是，人類期望技術計算機比他們對其他人的期望要安全得多。有了這些知識，我們已經在研究滿足消費者期望所需的技術水平。我們認為我們可以做到這一點。

So we are committed, and we are working on the detailed plan right now of how we'll go forward. We're also looking -- the other big learning was as you roll out technology that is as transformative as this and has incredible benefits to safety, you have to do it in a way where you're really working with the regulators at the local, state and federal level as well as first responders.

因此，我們堅定不移，現在正在製定詳細的計劃，以說明我們將如何前進。我們也在尋找——另一個重要的學習是，當你推出像這樣具有變革性的技術，並且對安全有令人難以置信的好處時，你必須以一種真正與當地監管機構合作的方式來做這件事。 、州和聯邦級別以及急救人員。

So as we roll out anywhere, we're going to make sure we build the right relationships, they understand the technology, they understand the benefit of the technology, and that's what we'll do. But we have confidence in the underlying technology, and you'll hear more about our plans for Cruise as we develop the plan in the upcoming weeks.

因此，當我們在任何地方推出時，我們將確保建立正確的關係，他們了解技術，他們了解技術的好處，這就是我們要做的。但我們對底層技術充滿信心，隨著我們在未來幾週內制定計劃，您將聽到更多有關 Cruise 計劃的資訊。

Our next question comes from Joseph Spak with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Joseph Spak。

Maybe just back to the EVs, Mary and Paul. I mean you talked about the positive variable profit. It sounds like the LC NRV charge going lower is a big portion of that, but you also mentioned some other factors. So I was wondering if you could give a little bit more detail there. And then is this something that you will continually give us on a quarter-by-quarter basis to sort of track the progress you're making towards that positive variable profit?

也許回到電動車，瑪麗和保羅。我的意思是你談到了正可變利潤。聽起來 LC NRV 費用降低是其中很大一部分，但您也提到了一些其他因素。所以我想知道你是否可以提供更多細節。那麼，您是否會持續按季度向我們提供此信息，以跟踪您在實現正可變利潤方面取得的進展？

Joe, it's Paul. Thanks for the questions. Probably just to digress for a second on the lower cost or market adjustment on the EV inventory. So a couple of things. Number one, they're not in -- that's not in any of the metrics that I think are important. Clearly, it is a year-over-year benefit for us on our journey. But when you think about the 2 metrics that we're looking at, there isn't an impact from that.

喬，是保羅。感謝您的提問。可能只是暫時離題一下電動車庫存的低成本或市場調整。有幾件事。第一，它們不屬於──這不屬於我認為重要的任何指標。顯然，這對我們的旅程來說是一個逐年的好處。但當你考慮我們正在考慮的兩個指標時，你會發現這並沒有產生任何影響。

So first is variable profit positive. This relates a lot more to sort of EBIT and how we think about that going forward. But variable profit is mainly benefiting from scale and lower material costs going forward, so not a contributor to that. And then when you think about getting to the mid-single-digit margin target in 2025, we would expect that there isn't really going to be inventory that's necessarily carrying that. And if there is, we'll call that out as we go forward.

首先是可變利潤為正。這與息稅前利潤以及我們對未來的看法有更多關係。但可變利潤主要受益於規模和未來材料成本的降低，因此不是其中的貢獻者。然後，當你考慮到 2025 年達到中個位數的利潤率目標時，我們預計實際上不會有庫存能夠滿足這一目標。如果有的話，我們會在前進的過程中指出這一點。

But it's not in our calculations and not a part of what we think our journey is going to be. So I appreciate the question and not surprised by it, but we're continuing to march along. When you think about the -- sorry, the second part of your question was on? Apologies. What's the second part of your question?

但這不在我們的計算中，也不是我們認為我們的旅程的一部分。所以我很欣賞這個問題，並且對此並不感到驚訝，但我們將繼續前進。當你想到──抱歉，你問題的第二部分是？道歉。你問題的第二部分是什麼？

Oh, on tracking. Yes, on when we'll disclose. We'll continue to talk about our journey and give confidence as far as specific data points. Not sure that we're going to do it quarterly yet, but we'll continue to update on our progress.

哦，正在追蹤。是的，我們什麼時候會透露。我們將繼續談論我們的旅程，並就具體數據點給予信心。還不確定我們是否會每季進行一次，但我們將繼續更新我們的進展。

Our next question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Just one question, one follow-up. I want to follow up on Rod's question first on strategy. Can you confirm what portion of your forward year CapEx and R&D is dedicated to EV battery, AV projects, the Auto 2.0? Any reason to think that this -- that you may have scope to dial back the vertical integration, given the changing market?

只有一個問題，一個後續行動。我想先跟進羅德關於策略的問題。您能否確認未來一年資本支出和研發的哪一部分專門用於電動車電池、AV專案、汽車2.0？有什麼理由認為，考慮到不斷變化的市場，您可能有回撤垂直整合的空間？

And then my follow-up and again, because I think in the past, where you've talked about well over half, I think you said in recent years of your spending was on that, but I just wanted to know if that was changing. And then the follow-up was on Elon Musk recently said that in the absence of trade barriers that China will demolish most of the Western EV players. Curious your reaction to that comment, whether you'd agree.

然後是我的後續行動，因為我認為在過去，您談到了超過一半的內容，我想您說過近年來您的支出都花在了這方面，但我只是想知道這種情況是否正在改變。接下來是馬斯克最近表示，在沒有貿易壁壘的情況下，中國將摧毀大多數西方電動車廠商。好奇你對此評論的反應，無論你是否同意。

Yes. Thanks, Adam. So from a capital perspective and to build on what I said with Rod, the majority of our capital spend is toward EV. Remember, from an ICE perspective, we have the foundation, already built the plant. And as I mentioned, all of the architectures for our really strong ICE portfolio, that capital has already been deployed. So this is really an opportunity for us to just continue to do great vehicles with very optimized capital from an ICE portfolio as mentioned with the Traverse, the Equinox and the full-size truck, just to name a few.

是的。謝謝，亞當。因此，從資本角度來看，並以我與羅德所說的話為基礎，我們的大部分資本支出都用於電動車。請記住，從 ICE 的角度來看，我們已經有了基礎，已經建造了工廠。正如我所提到的，我們真正強大的 ICE 產品組合的所有架構，這些資本都已經部署。因此，這對我們來說確實是一個機會，可以繼續利用 ICE 產品組合中非常優化的資本來生產出色的車輛，如 Traverse、Equinox 和全尺寸卡車等。

To your point on capital deployed from an infrastructure perspective, as the market evolves and as battery technology evolves, we will continue to evaluate our level of vertical integration. I think with the work we've done on Ultium and the work we've done on electric motors and the joint ventures with plant 1, 2 and 3, and then 4 -- our fourth plant is with Samsung, that gives us a different form factor with prismatic and cylindrical cells, I think we're well positioned.

對於您從基礎設施角度部署資本的觀點，隨著市場的發展和電池技術的發展，我們將繼續評估我們的垂直整​​合程度。我認為，透過我們在Ultium 上所做的工作以及我們在電動馬達方面所做的工作以及與工廠1、2 和3、然後是4 的合資企業——我們的第四家工廠是與三星合作的，這給了我們一個不同的機會形狀因素與棱柱形和圓柱形電池，我認為我們處於有利位置。

But as we move forward, we'll evaluate that. So I think there's options there. And as you can see, with all the initiatives we have, we are really working to take overall capital down but still get the number of programs that we need. So Adam, I hope that helps. Happy if you have additional questions there.

但隨著我們前進，我們將對此進行評估。所以我認為那裡有選擇。正如您所看到的，透過我們採取的所有舉措，我們確實在努力減少整體資本，但仍然獲得了我們需要的項目數量。亞當，我希望這會有所幫助。如果您還有其他問題，我們很高興。

And then on Elon's comments about China. I think, look, I don't discount any competitor. We need to make sure we have beautifully designed vehicles that have the right features, the right safety and the right customer experience. And we have to do it at a competitive cost base, and that's why we're focused so much on our cost base.

然後是伊隆對中國的評論。我想，看，我不會低估任何競爭對手。我們需要確保我們擁有設計精美的車輛，並具有適當的功能、適當的安全性和適當的客戶體驗。我們必須以具有競爭力的成本基礎來做到這一點，這就是為什麼我們如此關注我們的成本基礎。

Now when you mentioned the Chinese consumers, we do need a level playing field. I mean there comes a point where if it's not a level playing field between tariff and nontariff barriers, any industry is going to struggle to compete. So give us a level playing field, and I'll put our products in our cost structure that we continue to improve up against any.

當你提到中國消費者時，我們確實需要一個公平的競爭環境。我的意思是，到了某個時候，如果關稅和非關稅壁壘之間沒有一個公平的競爭環境，任何產業都將難以競爭。因此，給我們一個公平的競爭環境，我將我們的產品納入我們的成本結構中，我們將繼續改進以對抗任何產品。

Our next question comes from John Murphy with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的約翰·墨菲。

Mary, I just wanted to follow up on the strategy line that Adam and Rod have breached here. I mean we're seeing fits and starts in technology, and it will eventually get there. But at the same time, we are seeing this tectonic shift in competition, particularly coming from China, as Adam alluded to. You made sort of pronouncements and how the business strategy will be set up for a few years not too long ago. But these shifts have been pretty extreme more recently.

瑪麗，我只是想跟進亞當和羅德在這裡突破的戰略路線。我的意思是，我們看到科技的發展時斷時續，最終會實現這一目標。但同時，我們也看到了競爭的結構性轉變，尤其是來自中國的競爭，正如亞當所提到的。不久前，您發表了一些聲明以及如何制定幾年的業務策略。但最近這些轉變相當極端。

So I'm just curious, as you think about strategy and the position of the company, you haven't been shy from making big changes in the past like exiting Europe. Can we think about the potential for real shifts in strategy of focus where the highest margin and highest return is sort of in the business truly 5 to 10 years down the line, which might include things like exiting China, which sounds like heresy but might be the best move to make for 5 years out, maybe rebranding Cruise and really kind of taking a new sort of approach to where the company will land in 5 to 10 years. It's really protect profitability and cash flow from a position of strength instead of maybe a position in 5 to 10 years where it might be a weaker position.

所以我很好奇，當你考慮公司的策略和地位時，你並沒有羞於做出重大改變，例如退出歐洲。我們能否考慮一下戰略重點發生真正轉變的潛力，即在未來5 到10 年內真正實現最高利潤和最高回報的業務，其中可能包括退出中國之類的事情，這聽起來像是異端邪說，但可能是這是 5 年內最好的舉措，也許是重塑 Cruise 品牌，並採取一種新的方法來實現公司 5 到 10 年後的目標。它確實可以保護盈利能力和現金流，使其免受強勢地位的影響，而不是在 5 到 10 年內可能處於弱勢。

John, thanks for the question. And we continue to evaluate the strategy on a regular basis. We have very robust strategy discussions with our Board and with the leadership team. And as you mentioned, the world is changing quickly whether it's EV, whether it's software, autonomy, et cetera, and we're going to continue to respond to that. I do agree with you that we're doing that from a position of strength. And we'll evaluate where we have the opportunity to deploy capital and generate an appropriate return.

約翰，謝謝你的提問。我們將繼續定期評估該策略。我們與董事會和領導團隊進行了非常熱烈的策略討論。正如您所提到的，世界正在迅速變化，無論是電動車、軟體、自動駕駛等等，我們將繼續對此做出回應。我確實同意你的觀點，我們是出於實力而這樣做的。我們將評估我們有機會在哪裡部署資本並產生適當的回報。

And like we made the decision for China -- or excuse me, for Europe, when we looked at that, what we said actually has happened. We said it would be a win-win-win, a win for the Opel team, a win for at the time, PSA and a win for General Motors because we participate in the warrants, and we did just that.

就像我們為中國做出的決定一樣——或者對不起，為歐洲做出的決定，當我們審視這一點時，我們所說的話實際上已經發生了。我們說這將是三贏，是歐寶團隊的勝利，是當時PSA的勝利，也是通用汽車的勝利，因為我們參與了認股權證，我們也確實這麼做了。

So we're not going to shy away from making tough calls or maybe calls that people wouldn't expect if we think it's the right thing to do for the business to ensure we're here. We protect our strengths in the markets that we have, whether it's North America. I mentioned on the earnings call, in the top quartile, we've been leading that for several years, and now we profitably have taken the most affordable segment. And we have a strong business in South America in many of our international markets. China, as Paul mentioned, there's tremendous changing not only from a technology point of view but a competitive point of view.

因此，如果我們認為這對企業來說是正確的事情，以確保我們在這裡，我們不會迴避做出艱難的決定，或者可能是人們意想不到的決定。我們保護我們在現有市場的優勢，無論是北美。我在財報電話會議上提到，在前四分之一的市場中，我們多年來一直處於領先地位，現在我們已經佔據了最實惠的細分市場，並實現了盈利。我們在南美洲的許多國際市場上都有強大的業務。正如保羅所提到的，中國不僅從技術角度而且從競爭角度都發生了巨大的變化。

And so we're evaluating China. We think there's a place to play. It is a tremendous growth opportunity if we can do that well, and that's our goal. But nothing is off the table in ensuring that GM has a strong future to generate the right profitability and the right return for our investors.

所以我們正在評估中國。我們認為有一個地方可以玩。如果我們能做到這一點，這將是一個巨大的成長機會，這就是我們的目標。但要確保通用汽車擁有美好的未來，為我們的投資者創造適當的獲利能力和適當的回報，沒有什麼是不可能的。

And if I could just sneak one follow-up on the plug-in hybrid comment of potentially bringing those here to the U.S. to fill sort of maybe this interim gap. What kind of capacity or volume could you hit there here in the U.S.? I know the dealers are clamoring for those vehicles.

如果我能偷偷地對插電式混合動力車發表評論，可能會將這些產品帶到美國來填補這一臨時空白。在美國你能達到什麼樣的容量或體積？我知道經銷商們都在強烈要求購買這些車輛。

Yes. We are going to be bringing those in at a time where we need them from a compliance perspective. This year, we're very focused in -- I think as we are able to get the delivery to our dealers that are going to see the strength of the EV portfolio. So I'll have more to share on the hybrid capacity.

是的。從合規角度來看，我們將在需要時引入這些內容。今年，我們非常關注——我認為，當我們能夠向經銷商交付產品時，他們將看到電動車產品組合的實力。因此，我將分享更多有關混合容量的信息。

We'll adjust the capacity because, again, we have the technology. We know the targeted segments that we're going to apply it to. So we'll have the ability to flex and do what we need to from a hybrid perspective. But I think for calendar year '24, EV is our focus. And we think we've got tremendous growth opportunity as we free up getting the availability of the products to customers.

我們將調整產能，因為我們擁有技術。我們知道我們將應用它的目標細分市場。因此，我們將有能力從混合的角度靈活地做我們需要做的事情。但我認為 24 日曆年，電動車是我們的重點。我們認為，當我們向客戶提供產品時，我們將獲得巨大的成長機會。

Our next question comes from Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

Obviously, the '24 outlook is far stronger than investors expected. How much of that higher outlook versus consensus do you think stems from different industry-related factors that are a matter of debate such as expectations for volume or pricing in different markets versus how much do you think stems from company-specific factors that you would naturally have a better handle on internal to the company such as lower Cruise spending, a potential for more structural cost reduction, the magnitude of guidance to the fact you may be more positive on industry factors, but your pricing comments also seemed pretty in line. So not really sure. How are you thinking about like how much of your meeting this great guide in '24 will come down to factors under your control versus out of your control?

顯然，24 年的前景遠強於投資人的預期。您認為更高的前景與共識有多少源於不同的行業相關因素，這些因素是一個有爭議的問題，例如對不同市場的銷售或定價的預期，而您認為有多少源於您自然會想到的公司特定因素對公司內部有更好的處理，例如較低的遊輪支出、更多結構性成本削減的潛力、對行業因素的指導程度，您可能對行業因素更加積極，但您的定價評論似乎也很一致。所以不太確定。您如何看待您在 24 年與本出色指南的會面將在多大程度上取決於您控制範圍內的因素和超出您控制範圍的因素？

So Ryan, thanks for the question. I'll take a shot at that. When you look at the macro backdrop, I think we're approaching it pretty consistently to what we have for the last few years. So we've talked about a 16 million SAAR, about 2% to 2.5% of sort of total pricing pressure across the board. A lot of it is, I would say, a testament to what we achieved and overcame in 2023 that we don't expect to repeat.

瑞安，謝謝你的提問。我會嘗試一下。當你觀察宏觀背景時，我認為我們的做法與過去幾年的情況非常一致。因此，我們討論了 1,600 萬 SAAR，約佔整體定價壓力的 2% 到 2.5%。我想說，其中很多都證明了我們在 2023 年的成就和克服的困難，但我們不希望重蹈覆轍。

Of course, there will be some things that pop up as there are every year. And I think the team has done a good job of knocking those things down and overcoming some of those challenges going forward. So against the macro backdrop, that feels a little bit consistent with some conservatism in there on the pricing side of it. I think a lot of it is on our ability to execute. And we have had a lot of challenges, as Mary mentioned. I think '23 was a big year of learning for us. But as she talked about with the work that we're doing on the module assembly and where we see EV ramp as well as the customer response to the EVs that we're producing, I think this is a year of our executing and a lot of it is in our control.

當然，每年都會出現一些事情。我認為團隊在解決這些問題並克服未來的一些挑戰方面做得很好。因此，在宏觀背景下，這感覺與定價方面的一些保守主義有點一致。我認為這很大程度取決於我們的執行能力。正如瑪麗所提到的，我們遇到了很多挑戰。我認為 23 年對我們來說是學習的重要一年。但當她談到我們在模組組裝方面所做的工作、我們看到電動車的成長以及客戶對我們正在生產的電動車的反應時，我認為這是我們執行的一年，還有很多它在我們的控制之下。

Okay. Great. I just wanted to ask on Cruise too, starting with whether the guided $1 billion of lower spending in '24 versus the '23 full year $2.7 billion figure or maybe the 4Q run rate of $3.2 billion. And then what has the response been so far? I realize there hasn't been a lot of time passed, but from the regulators to the recently released comprehensive review.

好的。偉大的。我也想問 Cruise 的問題，首先是 24 年指導性支出減少 10 億美元，而 23 年全年支出為 27 億美元，還是第四季 32 億美元的運行率。那麼到目前為止反應如何？我意識到從監管機構到最近發布的全面審查，時間並沒有過去很多。

Previously, I think you've guided to potentially significantly less than the non-Cruise, maybe on the business update call, but then followed a day or 2 later at Barclays by saying several hundred million, now it's $1 billion. So of course, you were still waiting for the review at that point. Is there anything to read into the $1 billion being higher than several hundred million? Is that maybe the reception of the review could lead to a more prolonged suspension of commercial operations?

此前，我認為您可能在業務更新電話會議上引導的金額可能顯著低於非郵輪公司，但一兩天后，巴克萊銀行又說幾億美元，現在是 10 億美元。當然，那時您仍在等待審核。 10億美元比數億高還有什麼好解讀的嗎？是否接受審查可能會導致商業營運的暫停時間更長？

And then just finally, the outlook for the EBIT loss in '24 or whatever it is $1.7 billion or $2.7 billion, it's greater than the $1.3 billion of cash that Cruise had at year-end, right, on, I think, Slide 26 or so. So just capital raise, curious on the thoughts there.

最後，24 年息稅前利潤損失的前景或無論是 17 億美元還是 27 億美元，都大於 Cruise 在年底擁有的 13 億美元現金，對吧，我想，幻燈片 26 或所以。所以只是籌集資金，對那裡的想法感到好奇。

Ryan, there's a lot in there, but let me first by saying the response from regulators has been positive. So -- and we'll continue to have that outreach and build that relationship and be transparent with them. You shouldn't read too much into what we said, shortly thereafter we learned the situation. We went in and did a lot of work. And I got a -- I have to give our co-presidents, Craig Glidden and Mo Elshenawy credit for going in and really staying focused on the technology, making sure we keep the very talented software engineers that are doing incredible work and have allowed us to already clock 5 million miles of driverless miles.

瑞安，其中有很多內容，但首先讓我說監管機構的反應是正面的。因此，我們將繼續進行外展活動，建立這種關係，並對他們保持透明。你不應該過度解讀我們所說的，不久之後我們就了解了情況。我們進去做了許多工作。我必須讚揚我們的聯合總裁 Craig Glidden 和 Mo Elshenawy，他們投入並真正專注於技術，確保我們留住非常有才華的軟體工程師，他們正在做著令人難以置信的工作，並讓我們能夠無人駕駛里程已經達到500 萬英里。

So it was really just going to look a lot of where the opportunity to cut costs came from, the change in strategy to really focus on one city to demonstrate it as opposed to -- you remember at one point, they were talking about 20 cities this year. And so there were a lot of people who had been recently added more from an operational standpoint that we were able to exit those employees.

因此，我們實際上只是要專注於削減成本的機會從何而來，戰略的轉變，真正專注於一個城市來展示這一點，而不是——你記得在某一時刻，他們正在談論 20 個城市今年。因此，從營運的角度來看，最近增加了許多人，我們能夠退出這些員工。

But clearly a focus on the technology. And the way I look at this is we're going to make sure we do it right from a regulatory, a consumer, a customer relationship perspective, get the technology where we think it would be. And then once we're informed by doing it well in the cities, then we'll have the opportunity to go quickly and scale from there. So don't read anything into the $1 billion other than we went and did the work and saw the opportunity.

但顯然，重點是技術。我的看法是，我們將確保從監管、消費者、客戶關係的角度正確行事，讓科技達到我們認為應該達到的水平。一旦我們知道在城市做得很好，我們就有機會快速行動並從那裡開始擴大規模。因此，除了我們做了工作並看到了機會之外，不要對這 10 億美元做出任何解釋。

Our next question comes from Dan Levy with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的丹·利維。

Two questions on cash. One is you're guiding to $8 billion to $10 billion of free cash. And that pro forma gets your cash balance on the balance sheet to something like $28 billion to $30 billion at the end of 2024. To what extent are you willing to put forward another share buyback plan beyond what you have if the target is to have cash balance of $20 billion?

關於現金的兩個問題。其中之一是您將獲得 80 億至 100 億美元的自由現金。預計到 2024 年底，您的資產負債表上的現金餘額將達到 280 億至 300 億美元左右。如果目標是擁有現金，您願意在多大程度上提出超出現有計劃的另一項股票回購計劃餘額200億美元？

And the second question is on Cruise, on cash. They're at roughly $1.3 billion. I think that gives you a little less than a year of runway on cash. So what's the plan on further funding for Cruise?

第二個問題是關於克魯斯的現金問題。其價值約為 13 億美元。我認為這給了你不到一年的現金儲備。那麼，Cruise 進一步融資的計畫是什麼？

So on the further funding on Cruise, I'll take that, and I'll have Paul answer the other question. As we get the detailed plan of how we're going to relaunch Cruise in the road map, then we'll evaluate the overall funding needs. And we'll determine is it internal or externally sourced.

因此，關於克魯斯的進一步資助，我會接受這一點，我會讓保羅回答另一個問題。當我們在路線圖中得到如何重新啟動 Cruise 的詳細計劃時，我們將評估整體資金需求。我們將確定它是內部來源還是外部來源。

And Dan, on your question on cash, I think the simple math is correct. We would obviously see a sizable increase in our cash balance. Our capital allocation stance remains the same, which is to invest in the business. And we've talked about $10.5 billion to $11.5 billion of CapEx this year.

丹，關於你關於現金的問題，我認為簡單的數學是正確的。我們顯然會看到現金餘額大幅增加。我們的資本配置立場保持不變，那就是投資於業務。我們討論了今年 105 億至 115 億美元的資本支出。

We have been streamlining that and making that efficient and a priority to drive free cash flow. And as we look at the balance sheet, I think the balance sheet is in really good shape. And there's no change to our stance of, call it, $18 billion or about $20 billion of cash on hand. So clearly, we've demonstrated a renewed commitment and prioritization of returning cash to shareholders. And we'll maintain that flexibility going forward.

我們一直在簡化這一流程，並使其高效並成為推動自由現金流的優先事項。當我們查看資產負債表時，我認為資產負債表的狀況非常良好。我們的立場沒有改變，即手頭現金為 180 億美元或約 200 億美元。很明顯，我們已經展示了向股東返還現金的新承諾和優先順序。我們將繼續保持這種靈活性。

Just to clarify, the $18 billion, $20 billion, is that a target or is that a floor?

澄清一下，180 億美元、200 億美元是目標還是下限？

That's kind of been our floor/targeted range. Obviously, we've carried quite a bit more than that over the last few years as we dealt with some of the uncertainty. But as we imagine -- or as we said in November when we announced the share repurchase with a lot of that uncertainty behind us, lower CapEx spending, we felt comfortable operating at that lower balance. So $18 billion to $20 billion feels very comfortable as the targeted range.

這就是我們的底線/目標範圍。顯然，在過去幾年中，我們在應對一些不確定性時承擔了更多的責任。但正如我們想像的那樣，或者正如我們在11 月宣布股票回購時所說的那樣，儘管我們身後有很多不確定性，但資本支出支出較低，我們對在較低的平衡下運營感到滿意。因此，180 億至 200 億美元作為目標範圍感覺非常合適。

Our next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的伊曼紐爾·羅斯納。

First of all, I was hoping to ask you about the scale required to achieve the EV profitability goals. So I think when you shared those goals back in November, in particular, the 60-point EBIT margin improvement this year, I think 60% of that came from scale. I'm curious if the 200,000 to 300,000 units you're planning for this year, is that enough to get you that scale piece? So are you counting more on like lower battery costs and maybe a bit of a shift in terms of some of the savings?

首先，我想問您實現電動車獲利目標所需的規模。因此，我認為當您在 11 月分享這些目標時，特別是今年息稅前利潤率提高 60 點時，我認為其中 60% 來自規模。我很好奇您今年計劃生產的 20 萬到 30 萬台是否足以讓您獲得這樣的規模？那麼，您是否更希望降低電池成本，或在節省一些費用方面做出一些改變？

And then similar question on the mid-single-digit EBIT margin target for next year. I think some of it was going to come from scale. What kind of unit volume you need to get the scale piece of -- to get to these targets?

然後是關於明年中個位數息稅前利潤率目標的類似問題。我認為其中一些來自規模。為了達到這些目標，您需要什麼樣的單位體積來獲得秤塊？

Emmanuel, thanks for the questions. On the 2024 numbers, I think they're wholly consistent with the 200,000 to 300,000 range that we've articulated here. And as I mentioned earlier in response to a question around EVs, the low 200,000 is kind of what gets us to the point where we feel comfortable about getting the variable profit positive from there.

伊曼紐爾，謝謝你的提問。關於 2024 年的數字，我認為它們與我們在此闡述的 200,000 到 300,000 的範圍完全一致。正如我之前在回答有關電動車的問題時提到的，200,000 的低點使我們能夠放心地從那裡獲得正的可變利潤。

Obviously, growth is a component, but it's a much smaller component of the walk from '24 to '25 than it is from '23 to '24. But it will require some growth. We're not going to commit to that other than just to say kind of that's where we stand, and we'll see where customer demand is going forward.

顯然，成長是一個組成部分，但它在從 24 世紀到 25 世紀的歷程中比從 23 世紀到 24 世紀要小得多。但這需要一些增長。我們不會對此做出任何承諾，只是說這就是我們的立場，我們將看看客戶需求的未來發展。

And the other point if I didn't make it earlier on the lower battery raw material costs, keep in mind that we don't start to see meaningful benefit from that until we get to the middle part of the year because a lot of the cells that we have in inventory were built with higher raw materials costs.

另一點，如果我沒有早點談到較低的電池原材料成本，請記住，直到今年中期，我們才會開始看到有意義的好處，因為許多我們庫存的電池是用較高的原材料成本製造的。

So while we're producing cells today, we're going first in, first out on the cells. So we have a little bit of a lag before we realize that. That lower battery raw material cost of about $4,000 a vehicle that we articulated, we'll also have some annualization benefits in 2025 since we're not getting a full benefit here in '24. I hope that's helpful.

因此，當我們今天生產細胞時，我們會先進先出細胞。因此，在我們意識到這一點之前，我們有一點滯後。我們提出，每輛車的電池原料成本較低，約為 4,000 美元，我們也將在 2025 年獲得一些年化收益，因為我們在 24 年尚未獲得全部收益。我希望這有幫助。

Yes, very helpful. One very quick follow-up on Cruise. The spending, $1 billion lower for this year. Is that -- could that be considered sort of like a new run rate for spending? Or is it sort of like a temporary situation as a result of some of the path currently in the testing and rollout?

是的，非常有幫助。克魯斯的一個非常快速的後續行動。今年的支出減少了 10 億美元。這是否可以被視為某種新的支出運作率？或者這有點像暫時的情況，是由於目前正在測試和推出的某些路徑造成的？

Emmanuel, I would consider it right now it's our best estimate for this year. Obviously, as we develop a much more detailed plan that will inform over the next couple of years what the spending needs to be, so more to come.

伊曼紐爾，我現在認為這是我們今年的最佳估計。顯然，隨著我們制定更詳細的計劃，該計劃將告知未來幾年所需的支出，因此還會有更多計劃。

Our next question comes from Chris McNally with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Chris McNally。

Great numbers. Mary, I just want to shift gears and talk maybe advanced ADAS and software really quickly. Super Cruise, you introduced in 2018. You don't put out too many usage numbers, but I think in the middle of last year, you talked about almost 100 million miles cumulatively. Even if we double that for time passage, it's not many vehicles, tens of thousands. We also read Ultra Cruise has now been installed.

偉大的數字。瑪麗，我只是想換個話題，快速地談談先進的 ADAS 和軟體。超級巡航，你在2018年就推出了。你沒有給出太多的使用數字，但我想在去年年中，你談到了累計近1億英里。即使我們把時間加倍，車輛也不是很多，幾萬輛。我們也了解到 Ultra Cruise 現已安裝。

Just high level, isn't this a very slow pace for Level 2+ product? Tesla has been providing for a decade charging anywhere from 6,000 to 12,000 for top versions. I guess the question is, isn't this becoming a big miss opportunity for GM at this point for additional revenue? Even Slide 7, I think, only shows one of the ICE launches, the Traverse highlighting Super Cruise. So just a broad update when we could start to see what is a technology probably everyone wants at more sort of mass deployment scale across your fleet?

只是高級別，對於2級以上的產品來說，這不是一個很慢的節奏嗎？十年來，特斯拉一直為頂級版本提供 6,000 至 12,000 次充電。我想問題是，這是否會成為通用汽車目前錯失的一個獲得額外收入的重大機會？我認為，即使是幻燈片 7，也只展示了 ICE 的一項發射，即突出顯示超級巡航的 Traverse。那麼，當我們開始了解可能每個人都希望在整個艦隊中進行更大規模部署的技術是什麼時，只是一個廣泛的更新？

Yes. Chris, appreciate the question. I think back in the '18 time frame, I think we should have, in hindsight, put it across the portfolio much more quickly. It's not a number of models. I don't have it off the top of my head. Ashish, we can provide that. But it's on a number of models across the portfolio right now. As we launch the Traverse this year will be added to the Traverse.

是的。克里斯，感謝這個問題。我回想起 18 年的時間框架，事後看來，我認為我們應該更快地將其納入投資組合。這不是模型的數量。我並沒有把它拋在腦後。 Ashish，我們可以提供。但目前該產品組合中的許多型號都採用了該技術。當我們今年推出 Traverse 時，將會加入 Traverse 中。

Again, we're seeing extremely strong response from customers where I think it's over 80%, 85% of customers once they experience the technology say they would never -- they would not want a car without it or they would strongly prefer it on their vehicle, which, in my experience, is a pretty high interest rate for a single technology. So we're committed. We're going to continue to develop. And we have been, along the way, adding more roads and adding more capability, whether it's lane change, whether it's trailering.

再次，我們看到客戶的反應非常強烈，我認為超過80%、85% 的客戶一旦體驗了這項技術就表示他們永遠不會——他們不會想要一輛沒有這項技術的汽車，或者他們會強烈喜歡它車輛，根據我的經驗，對於單一技術來說，這是一個相當高的利率。所以我們承諾。我們將繼續發展。一路走來，我們一直在增加更多的道路並增加更多的功能，無論是變換車道還是拖車。

So there's a robust plan to continue to improve Super Cruise, and we'll stay on that. And we are seeing the profitability benefits. And the more vehicles to your point, we get it on, the better it will be. And we're committed to do that and frankly, have done quite a bit already. And we can provide that.

因此，我們有一個強有力的計劃來繼續改進超級巡航，我們將堅持下去。我們正在看到盈利能力的好處。到達您所在點的車輛越多，我們上車的情況就越好。我們致力於做到這一點，坦白說，我們已經做了很多。我們可以提供這一點。

No, that's -- and just in terms of the evolution of the speed, is it a technology bottleneck? Or is it more just marketing, meaning like you thought of it as a premium product, you charge sort of a premium rate compared to other GM add-ons? Or is it just like you said, there's a cost to putting it on every vehicle on the RD&E. So that could increase, but it would obviously be an engineering cost to get it on more vehicles.

不，那是——就速度的演變而言，它是技術瓶頸嗎？或者它更只是行銷，這意味著就像您認為它是一種優質產品一樣，與其他通用汽車附加組件相比，您收取的費用有點高？或者就像你說的那樣，將其安裝在 RD&E 的每輛車上都是有成本的。因此，這一數字可能會增加，但將其安裝在更多車輛上顯然會增加工程成本。

Yes. No, we are committed to getting it on many vehicles as possible. In some cases, we had planned to make it standard. The semiconductor shortage kind of slowed us down on that because it was a choice of building a vehicle at all or waiting to build it with Super Cruise.

是的。不，我們致力於將其安裝在盡可能多的車輛上。在某些情況下，我們計劃將其標準化。半導體短缺有點拖慢了我們的速度，因為這是一個選擇，要么建造一輛汽車，要么等待用超級巡航來建造它。

So we are very committed to getting across many vehicles. We've dramatically taken the cost down on the technology. So it's a really good value. And in my opinion, we're deploying it as quickly as we can. And it's really just with -- there is engineering required and some sensors required when you add it to a new vehicle, but we're doing that in a very cadenced but as quick as possible fashion.

因此，我們非常致力於跨越許多車輛。我們大幅降低了技術成本。所以它真的很有價值。在我看來，我們正在盡快部署它。當你將其添加到新車上時，確實需要工程設計和一些感測器，但我們正在以非常有節奏但盡可能快的方式做到這一點。

Our last question comes from the line of Tom Narayan with RBC.

我們的最後一個問題來自 RBC 的 Tom Narayan。

Just wanted to kind of make sure I got all the good points here on the bridge in 2023 to 2024 -- sorry, a boring question. You have, I guess, price down 2% to 2.5%, $200 million cost savings, Cruise down $1 billion, higher labor $1.3 billion. Three items not quantified were market share gains you guys called out in the slide, EV margin improvement, and the third is lower mix. Just curious if we could get a sense of order of magnitude for those 3 last buckets?

只是想確保我在 2023 年至 2024 年期間在這座橋上得到了所有的好處——抱歉，這是一個無聊的問題。我猜，價格下降了 2% 到 2.5%，成本節省了 2 億美元，郵輪成本下降了 10 億美元，勞動成本增加了 13 億美元。沒有量化的三個項目是你們在幻燈片中提到的市場份額成長、電動車利潤率改善，第三個是較低的組合。只是好奇我們能否了解最後 3 個桶的數量級？

Tom, I'll suggest that we take that off-line, work through any modeling details. But at the end of the day, clearly, the commercial market, as we talked about, we expect to be relatively stable and pricing down 2% to 2.5%. Not going to get into the specifics about how we're thinking about market share gains other than to say, fairly consistent about what we've been doing for the last few years going forward. And then on EVs, a lot of that, we will continue to talk about as we come to sort of later Investor Day and subsequent calls going forward. I think we've given good detail on the overall walk on a vehicle program level.

湯姆，我建議我們離線處理所有建模細節。但最終，顯然，正如我們所討論的，商業市場將相對穩定，定價將下降 2% 至 2.5%。我們不會詳細討論我們如何看待市場份額的成長，只是說，我們在過去幾年裡所做的事情相當一致。然後在電動車方面，我們將在稍後的投資者日和隨後的電話會議中繼續討論其中的許多內容。我認為我們已經在車輛程序級別上提供了總體行走的詳細資訊。

Okay. Sure. And as a quick follow-up, typically, when -- if an OEM, let's say, changes production levels, so in this case, EV, if you move to plug-in hybrids or what have you, there are monies that get paid to suppliers, right, for that, let's say, they have to cut production of EV components. Just curious if those supplier concessions if you were to, let's say, reduce EV production or shift to plug-in hybrids with -- are those something that you've envisioned in the 2024 guidance?

好的。當然。作為快速跟進，通常，如果 OEM 改變生產水平，那麼在這種情況下，電動汽車，如果你轉向插電式混合動力車或其他什麼，就會得到報酬對於供應商來說，對吧，為此，他們必須削減電動車零件的產量。只是好奇，如果您要減少電動車產量或轉向插電式混合動力車，這些供應商是否會做出讓步——這些是您在 2024 年指南中設想的嗎？

So Tom, I think our -- we've got great relationships with our suppliers and a team that works very, very closely with them. They have been, I would say, very patient with us over the last few years because we've had a lot of volatility. And in those situations where we need to help, we've been willing to do that going forward. And we always look at both efficiencies and any challenges in our annual budget process, and this year is no different.

湯姆，我認為我們與供應商建立了良好的關係，團隊與他們合作非常非常密切。我想說，過去幾年他們對我們非常有耐心，因為我們經歷了很大的波動。在那些需要我們提供幫助的情況下，我們一直都願意繼續這樣做。我們始終關注年度預算流程的效率和挑戰，今年也不例外。

I'd now like to turn the call over to Mary Barra for her closing remarks.

現在我想將電話轉給瑪麗·巴拉，讓她致閉幕詞。

Thank you very much. And thanks, everybody, for your questions. I'd like to share just a couple of thoughts before we close.

非常感謝。謝謝大家提出的問題。在結束之前我想分享一些想法。

Fundamentally, we believe we are well positioned to have a strong year, thanks to our success in high-margin and growing ICE segments, our expanding EV portfolio, our cost discipline and our continuous improvements to design, engineering, supply chain, manufacturing and marketing process improvements.

從根本上說，我們相信我們有能力度過一個強勁的一年，這要歸功於我們在高利潤和不斷增長的內燃機領域的成功、我們不斷擴大的電動汽車產品組合、我們的成本控制以及我們對設計、工程、供應鏈、製造和行銷的持續改善流程改善。

In addition, we are prioritizing the return of cash to our shareholders on a consistent basis as we execute the plan. We know we must execute in every part of the business in '24, not just ICE. And I can assure you we will. So thank you for your continued support and for joining today's call, and please stay safe.

此外，在執行該計劃時，我們將始終如一地優先考慮向股東返還現金。我們知道，24 年我們必須在業務的各個部分執行，而不僅僅是 ICE。我可以向你保證我們會的。感謝您的持續支持並參加今天的電話會議，請保持安全。

That concludes the conference call for today. Thank you for joining.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。