通用汽車公佈了 2024 年第二季強勁的財務業績,這得益於其 ICE 業務的業績和穩定的定價。銷售一直強勁,尤其是隨著新款中型 SUV 的推出。該公司的電動車產品組合勢頭強勁,交付量較上季成長 34%。通用汽車宣布了一項 60 億美元的股票回購計劃,並上調了全年業績指引。他們專注於成本控制、資本效率和提高電動車產品組合的獲利能力。公司始終致力於客戶的安全和成功。
中國以外的通用汽車國際市場正在經歷強勁的定價趨勢,特別是在雪佛蘭被認為是高端品牌的南美洲。該公司將這一成功歸功於品牌忠誠度和認可度以及嚴格的執行力。此外,通用汽車對未來一到兩年電動車的成長持樂觀態度,並指出其即將推出的汽車產品組合將採用全新的設計、性能和技術。儘管面臨貸款利率和經銷商收入增加等潛在挑戰,通用汽車相信他們有能力在定價和成長方面繼續跑贏行業。
通用汽車金融公司執行長討論了該公司上半年強勁的盈利和下半年的預期,並列了租賃終止率下降和信貸撥備略有減弱等因素。該公司仍在評估 Super Cruise 的票價,並將在未來提供更多資訊。通用汽車正致力於使生產與市場需求保持一致,降低成本,並利用別克品牌在中國成長。該公司計劃繼續改進和擴張,更多細節將在即將到來的投資者日分享。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good morning and welcome to the General Motors company second quarter 2024 earnings conference call.
早安,歡迎參加通用汽車 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。
During the opening remarks, all participants will be in a listen-only mode.
在開幕致詞期間,所有參與者將處於僅聽模式。
After the opening remarks, we will conduct a question and answer session.
開幕致詞後,我們將進行問答環節。
We are asking analysts to limit their questions to one and a brief follow-up.
我們要求分析師將他們的問題限制為一個問題和一個簡短的後續行動。
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員說明)
As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded Tuesday, July 23, 2024.
謹此提醒,本次電話會議於 2024 年 7 月 23 日星期二錄製。
I would now like to turn the conference over to Ashish Kohli, GM's Vice President of Investor Relations.
我現在想將會議交給通用汽車公司投資者關係副總裁 Ashish Kohli。
Ashish Kohli - Vice President of Investor Relations
Ashish Kohli - Vice President of Investor Relations
Thanks, Amanda, and good morning, everyone.
謝謝阿曼達,大家早安。
We appreciate you joining us as we review GM's financial results for the second quarter of 2024.
感謝您與我們一起回顧通用汽車 2024 年第二季的財務表現。
Our conference call materials were issued this morning and are available on GM's Investor Relations website.
我們的電話會議資料已於今天上午發布,可在通用汽車的投資者關係網站上取得。
We are also broadcasting this call via webcast.
我們也透過網路廣播來廣播這次電話會議。
Joining us today are Mary Barra, GM's Chair and CEO; and Paul Jacobson, GM's Executive Vice President and CFO; Dan Berce, President and CEO of GM Financial will also be joining us for the Q&A portion of the call.
今天加入我們的是通用汽車董事長兼執行長瑪麗巴拉 (Mary Barra);通用汽車執行副總裁兼財務長保羅‧雅各布森 (Paul Jacobson);通用汽車金融公司總裁兼執行長 Dan Berce 也將參加我們電話會議的問答部分。
On today's call, management will make forward-looking statements about our expectations.
在今天的電話會議上,管理階層將對我們的期望做出前瞻性陳述。
These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially.
這些陳述存在風險和不確定性,可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異。
These risks and uncertainties include the factors identified in our filings with the SEC.
這些風險和不確定性包括我們向 SEC 提交的文件中確定的因素。
Please review the Safe Harbor statement on the first page of our presentation.
請查看我們簡報第一頁上的安全港聲明。
That the contents of our call will be governed by this language.
我們通話的內容將受此語言管轄。
And with that, I'm delighted to turn the call over to Mary.
至此,我很高興將電話轉給瑪麗。
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Ashish, and good morning, everyone.
謝謝阿什什,大家早安。
I want to begin today's call by thanking the GM team as well as our dealers, suppliers and other business partners for helping us deliver strong second quarter and first half results, including record revenue in both periods.
在今天的電話會議開始時,我想感謝通用汽車團隊以及我們的經銷商、供應商和其他業務合作夥伴幫助我們實現了強勁的第二季度和上半年業績,包括兩個時期創紀錄的收入。
There are four key drivers to our performance and our new higher guidance I'd like to highlight.
我想強調的是我們的業績和新的更高指導有四個關鍵驅動因素。
First, our past investments have created a consistently high performing portfolio of ICE trucks and SUVs from a volume, share and margin standpoint.
首先,從銷售量、市佔率和利潤率的角度來看,我們過去的投資創造了始終表現優異的內燃機卡車和 SUV 產品組合。
Next, our EV portfolio is scaling well and gaining market share.
接下來,我們的電動車產品組合正在良好擴展並贏得市場份額。
In fact, our US EV deliveries grew 40% year over year in the second quarter, while the industry grew at 11%.
事實上,第二季我們的美國電動車交車量年增 40%,而產業成長率為 11%。
We're encouraged by these early results because disciplined volume growth is key to earning positive variable profits from our EV portfolio in the fourth quarter and maintaining strong ICE margins.
我們對這些早期結果感到鼓舞,因為有紀律的銷售成長是第四季度從我們的電動車投資組合中獲得正的可變利潤並保持強勁的 ICE 利潤率的關鍵。
Third, we continued to deliver stable pricing and our incentives on average have been more than 100 basis points below the industry average for four consecutive quarters.
第三,我們繼續提供穩定的定價,我們的平均激勵措施連續四個季度低於行業平均水平100多個基點。
And finally, with our new investments, we have even greater focus on margins and capital efficiencies, great vehicles and better execution will continue to differentiate us.
最後,透過新的投資,我們更加關注利潤率和資本效率,優秀的工具和更好的執行力將繼續使我們脫穎而出。
In the first half, Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra volumes in the US were up a combined 5% versus a year ago, and we gained 3.5 points of market share with disciplined production and consistent pricing.
上半年,雪佛蘭索羅德和 GMC Sierra 在美國的銷量比去年同期增長了 5%,透過嚴格的生產和一致的定價,我們獲得了 3.5 個百分點的市場份額。
In addition, sales of our redesigned Chevrolet, Colorado and GMC Canyon midsize pickups were up 31% year over year with ATPs up 9%.
此外,我們重新設計的雪佛蘭、科羅拉多和 GMC Canyon 中型皮卡的銷量較去年同期成長 31%,ATP 成長 9%。
In SUVs, we're executing a full-court press with 8 all new redesigned compact, midsize and full-size models that began arriving in showrooms during the second quarter.
在 SUV 領域,我們正在對 8 款全新重新設計的緊湊型、中型和全尺寸車型進行全場壓制,這些車型於第二季度開始進入展廳。
They include some of our most profitable nameplates like the Chevrolet Traverse, GMC Acadia and the Buick Enclave, which will be available with Super Cruise for the first time.
其中包括一些我們最賺錢的品牌,如雪佛蘭 Traverse、GMC Acadia 和別克 Enclave,這些車型將首次與 Super Cruise 一起提供。
We designed Super Cruise to let customers drive hands free for hours at a time on far more roads and with far fewer disengagements.
我們設計 Super Cruise 的目的是讓客戶在更多的道路上一次解放雙手幾個小時,並且更少的脫離。
Broadcasters and edmunds.com rated Super Cruise, the top hands-free driving system because it's confidence inspiring and its technical differences between our system and others, explain why Super Cruise is so smooth.
廣播公司和 edmunds.com 將 Super Cruise 評為頂級免持駕駛系統,因為它令人充滿信心,而且我們的系統與其他系統之間的技術差異解釋了為什麼 Super Cruise 如此平穩。
The Chevrolet Equinox, our highest-volume SUV will also be all new and we expect it to be more profitable than the outgoing model, just like our family of midsized, Buick, GMC and Chevrolet SUVs.
我們產量最高的 SUV 雪佛蘭 Equinox 也將是全新的,我們預計它會比即將推出的車型利潤更高,就像我們的中型、別克、GMC 和雪佛蘭 SUV 系列一樣。
This is a function of several strategic decisions, we've made.
這是我們做出的多項策略決策的結果。
First, the styling is bolder and more truck-like for the Chevrolet and GMC, while the Buick Enclave adopts the brand's sophisticated new design language.
首先,雪佛蘭和GMC的造型更加大膽,更像卡車,而別克昂科雷則採用了品牌精緻的新設計語言。
Next, we elevated the comfort and technology features to make them even more desirable.
接下來,我們提升了舒適度和技術特性,使它們更加令人嚮往。
Than we leveraged our proven platforms and component sets for lower cost and greater efficiency.
我們利用經過驗證的平台和組件集來降低成本並提高效率。
Winning with Synplicity, which is our drive to eliminate unnecessary complexity in the way we engineer and equip our vehicles will help ensure that we can continue to sustain and even improve our margins in the future.
透過 Synplicity 取勝,這是我們消除車輛設計和裝備方式中不必要的複雜性的動力,這將有助於確保我們能夠在未來繼續維持甚至提高我們的利潤。
For example, through smarter contenting and optimizing selectable options.
例如,透過更聰明的內容和優化可選選項。
We have been able to eliminate more than 2400 unique parts on 10 vehicles were launching through the first quarter of 2025.
截至 2025 年第一季度,我們已經消除了 10 款車輛上的 2400 多個獨特零件。
And the 2025, Cadillac LYRIQ alone, we reduce the part count 24% from the 2024 model year with no compromises to performance or features.
僅 2025 年凱迪拉克 LYRIQ 就比 2024 年車型減少了 24% 的零件數量,而性能或功能並未受到影響。
The list of parts or subsystems that we no longer need to design engineers, source, install and warehouse is extensive.
我們不再需要設計工程師、採購、安裝和倉儲的零件或子系統清單非常廣泛。
And includes complex and relatively costly seat assemblies [consoles], door trends and patients.
並包括複雜且相對昂貴的座椅組件[控制台]、門趨勢和患者。
A crucial element is reducing the number of billable electrical combinations, which is delivering hardware and software quality improvements as well as savings.
一個關鍵因素是減少計費電氣組合的數量,從而提高硬體和軟體品質並節省成本。
The work is helping us meet our $2 billion fixed cost reduction program this year and the savings will be even greater in the future.
這項工作正在幫助我們實現今年 20 億美元的固定成本削減計劃,未來節省的成本將會更大。
As I said before, our EV portfolio is growing faster than the market now that our module issues are resolved and we are scaling production.
正如我之前所說,由於我們的模組問題已解決並且我們正在擴大生產,因此我們的電動車產品組合的成長速度快於市場。
Our early sales are mostly incremental, about 54% of customers are new to GM, and we're working to increase our conquest rate by raising awareness and launching new models.
我們的早期銷售大多是增量的,大約 54% 的客戶是通用汽車的新客戶,我們正在努力透過提高知名度和推出新車型來提高我們的征服率。
Our best-selling ED, so far this year is the Cadillac LYRIQ, and it is now the market leading luxury EV in 22 states, including Florida, Texas and Michigan, the GMC Hummer EV and the Chevrolet Blazer EV are also building momentum.
今年到目前為止,我們最暢銷的ED 是凱迪拉克LYRIQ,它現在是佛羅裡達州、德克薩斯州和密西根州等22 個州市場領先的豪華電動車,GMC 悍馬電動車和雪佛蘭開拓者電動車也正在蓄勢待發。
To unleash the next cycle of EV growth, we're scaling production of the Chevrolet Equinox CB with its unique combination of performance, technology, range and affordability.
為了釋放電動車的下一個成長週期,我們正在擴大雪佛蘭 Equinox CB 的生產規模,以其獨特的性能、技術、續航里程和經濟性相結合。
We delivered our first thousand units late in the second quarter and the reaction from customers, dealers and the media is very strong.
我們在第二季末交付了第一批一千台產品,客戶、經銷商和媒體的反應非常強烈。
One product reviewer said Chevy seems positioned to grab a piece of the pie that no one else has quite grabbed onto yet, and we think that is spot on.
一位產品評論家表示,雪佛蘭似乎已經準備好搶佔一塊尚未被其他人搶到的蛋糕,我們認為這是正確的。
And over the next several months, GMC will launch the Sierra EV and the Cadillac LYRIQ will be joined by the OPTIQ Escalade IQ and
在接下來的幾個月中,GMC 將推出 Sierra EV 和凱迪拉克 LYRIQ,此外還將推出 OPTIQ Escalade IQ 和
[Celestic].
[天界]。
We're especially excited about the OPTIQ current driver said it [nailed], the compact luxury SUV formula.
我們對 OPTIQ 當前駕駛員所說的「完美」感到特別興奮,這是緊湊型豪華 SUV 的典範。
And next year, when we follow with the Celestic, Cadillac will have a beautifully designed EV in every global luxury SUV segment.
明年,當我們推出 Celestic 時,凱迪拉克將在全球每個豪華 SUV 細分市場中推出一款設計精美的電動車。
We're going to focus on winning new customers with these nameplates as well as with the next-generation Chevrolet Bolt EV, because they represent the largest growth opportunities for us.
我們將專注於透過這些品牌以及下一代雪佛蘭 Bolt EV 贏得新客戶,因為它們代表了我們最大的成長機會。
We've also made adjustments to ensure we have a balanced approach as the market develops.
我們也進行了調整,以確保隨著市場的發展我們採取平衡的方法。
This includes deferring viewings for CV., which had been planned for 2024.
這包括推遲原定於 2024 年觀看《CV.》的時間。
As we're expanding choice.
當我們擴大選擇範圍。
Other barriers to EV adoption like public charging access are also improving.
電動車採用的其他障礙(例如公共充電接入)也在改善。
We are working to finalize commercial agreements with Tesla to give our customers access to their charging network via IONNA fast-charging venture we joined is expected to bring its first chargers online before the end of the year, and customers are telling us the drive-through plazas we're rolling out with pilot company are the best public charging experience out there.
我們正在努力與特斯拉敲定商業協議,讓我們的客戶能夠透過我們加入的IONNA 快速充電企業訪問他們的充電網絡,預計將在今年年底前將其第一批充電器上線,客戶正在告訴我們免下車服務的具體情況我們與試點公司合作推出的廣場是最好的公共充電體驗。
As excited as we are about our portfolio, we are committed to growing responsibly and profitably in any demand environment.
儘管我們對我們的產品組合感到興奮,但我們致力於在任何需求環境中負責任地實現獲利成長。
Over the next few years, third party forecasters now see the EV market growing steadily, but more slowly than it did over the last few years.
在接下來的幾年裡,第三方預測者現在認為電動車市場將穩定成長,但速度比過去幾年慢。
As a result, we are adjusting our spending plans to make sure we're capital efficient and moving in lockstep with customers.
因此,我們正在調整支出計劃,以確保我們的資本效率並與客戶保持同步。
For example, our Ultium Cells joint venture continues to ramp up domestic battery cell supply this year, which is helping drive profit improvement in our EV portfolio.
例如,我們的 Ultium Cells 合資企業今年繼續增加國內電池供應,這有助於推動我們電動車產品組合的利潤改善。
As we go forward, we're going to bring additional capacity online in a measured cadence.
隨著我們的前進,我們將以有節奏的方式增加線上容量。
This will enable us to better optimize our battery chemistry and form factors to meet our customers' needs, on cost and range.
這將使我們能夠更好地優化電池化學成分和外形尺寸,以滿足客戶在成本和續航里程方面的需求。
We've also decided to reopen the Orient assembly as a battery electric truck plant in mid-2026.
我們也決定在 2026 年中期重新開放東方組裝廠,作為電池電動卡車工廠。
The new timing is six months later than our plan heading into the year.
新的時間比我們今年的計畫晚了六個月。
We're confident that we can meet customer demand for standout EV trucks in the interim by leveraging the production capability and flexibility we have in factory zero.
我們相信,透過利用我們零工廠的生產能力和靈活性,我們能夠暫時滿足客戶對出色電動卡車的需求。
We will also continue to take advantage of the flexibility we have to mix production between ICE and EV at key plants.
我們也將繼續利用在關鍵工廠混合生產內燃機和電動車的靈活性。
Next I'd like to discuss our results in China.
接下來我想談談我們在中國的成果。
As you know, the market has significant excess capacity and many startups and established competitors continue to prioritize production over profitability.
如您所知,市場產能嚴重過剩,許多新創公司和老牌競爭對手繼續將生產置於盈利之上。
We have been taking steps to reduce our inventories, align our production to demand, protect our pricing and reduce fixed costs.
我們一直在採取措施減少庫存、根據需求調整生產、保護定價並降低固定成本。
But it's clear the steps we have taken while significant have not been enough.
但很明顯,我們所採取的重要措施還不夠。
We had expected to return to profitability in China in the second quarter.
我們原本預計中國市場將在第二季恢復獲利。
However, we reported a loss and we expect the rest of the year will remain challenging because the headwinds are not easy.
然而,我們報告了虧損,並且預計今年剩餘時間仍將充滿挑戰,因為逆風並不容易。
We are working closely with our JV partner to restructure the business to make it profitable and sustainable.
我們正在與合資夥伴密切合作,重組業務,使其盈利並可持續發展。
I'll close my opening comments by recognizing the progress cruise has made over the last several months.
在結束我的開場白之前,我要對過去幾個月郵輪所取得的進展表示認可。
As you know, cruise has returned to the road in Houston, Phoenix and Dallas, and we recently provided them with bridge financing to support their operational cash needs.
如您所知,郵輪已重返休士頓、鳳凰城和達拉斯的航線,我們最近為他們提供了過橋融資,以支持他們的營運現金需求。
They've also made several significant leadership appointments, including hiring Marc Whitten as CEO.
他們還做出了幾項重要的領導任命,包括聘請馬克·惠滕 (Marc Whitten) 擔任執行長。
Marc has decades of experience on the frontlines of technology transformations, which will be crucial as we move forward.
馬克在技術轉型的前沿擁有數十年的經驗,這對我們的前進至關重要。
Our vision to transform mobility using autonomous technology is unchanged and every mile travelled and every simulation, for instance, closer to because Cruise is an AI first company.
我們利用自主技術改變移動出行的願景沒有改變,例如,每行駛一英里、每一次模擬,都更接近這個目標,因為 Cruise 是一家人工智慧優先的公司。
We have some of the best engineers in tech building a cutting edge AI platform, harnessing the power of large scale Foundation models to continuously improve safe AV performance.
我們擁有一些最優秀的技術工程師,建構了尖端的人工智慧平台,利用大規模基金會模式的力量來不斷提高安全的自動駕駛性能。
The cruise team will also simplify their path to scale by focusing their next autonomous vehicle on the next generation Chevrolet Bolt EV instead of the origin.
Cruise 團隊還將簡化其規模化之路,將他們的下一代自動駕駛汽車重點放在下一代雪佛蘭 Bolt EV 上,而不是原點。
It's a win-win for both GM and Cruise.
這對於通用汽車和 Cruise 來說都是雙贏的。
It addresses the regulatory uncertainty we face with the origin because of its unique designs.
由於其獨特的設計,它解決了我們在原產地方面面臨的監管不確定性。
Per unit costs will be much lower, which will help cruise, optimize resources and enable them to deliver AV Tech at scale as quickly as possible.
每單位成本將低得多,這將有助於巡航、優化資源並使他們能夠盡快大規模提供 AV 技術。
And the change will help GM fully leverage our investment in the Bolt EV with a major new customer for the product.
這項變更將有助於通用汽車充分利用我們在 Bolt EV 上的投資,並為該產品帶來了新的主要客戶。
We think all of these are important steps that will help us attract those who believe in the cruise mission and see the incredible long-term business opportunity of autonomous driving.
我們認為所有這些都是重要的步驟,將幫助我們吸引那些相信巡航使命並看到自動駕駛令人難以置信的長期商機的人。
And with that, I will turn the call over to Paul to walk you through our financial results.
接下來,我會將電話轉給保羅,讓他向您介紹我們的財務表現。
Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Mary, and I appreciate you all joining us this morning.
謝謝你,瑪麗,我也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。
Our second quarter results were driven by ongoing strong performance from our ICE business and stable pricing across the portfolio that once again outperformed our guidance assumptions for the quarter.
我們第二季的業績得益於我們的 ICE 業務持續強勁的業績以及整個投資組合的穩定定價,再次超出了我們對本季的指導假設。
And I'm pleased to share that pricing has remained relatively consistent thus far into July.
我很高興地告訴大家,截至 7 月份,定價一直保持相對穩定。
As Mary mentioned, sales have been robust.
正如瑪麗所提到的,銷售一直很強勁。
We launched our new midsize SUVs, supporting stable pricing and generating stronger profit margins than preceding models.
我們推出了新的中型SUV,支援穩定的定價並產生比之前車型更高的利潤率。
Highlighting our focus on profitable growth.
強調我們對獲利成長的關注。
Recent JD Power data showed that our US incentive gap compared to the industry average is expanding.
最近的 JD Power 數據顯示,與行業平均值相比,我們美國的激勵差距正在擴大。
In the second quarter, we ran roughly 150 basis points below the industry.
第二季度,我們的運作水準比業界低約 150 個基點。
While at the same time, our US retail market share increased by 70 basis points more than offsetting the lower fleet volume to rental companies.
同時,我們的美國零售市佔率成長了 70 個基點,足以抵銷租賃公司車隊數量下降的影響。
Our EV portfolio was gaining momentum.
我們的電動車產品組合勢頭強勁。
In the second quarter, our US EV deliveries were up 34% sequentially from the first quarter, driven by the Chevrolet Blazer EV and the Cadillac LYRIQ and moving forward will also benefit from the Chevrolet Equinox EV, which delivers more than 300 miles of range, and we'll be sub $30,000 after factoring in the consumer tax credit.
第二季度,在雪佛蘭 Blazer EV 和凱迪拉克 LYRIQ 的推動下,我們的美國電動車交付量比第一季度連續增長了 34%,未來還將受益於雪佛蘭 Equinox EV,其續航里程超過 300 英里,考慮到消費者稅收抵免後,我們的收入將低於30,000 美元。
On capital allocation, we repurchased $1 billion of stock in the quarter, retiring another 22 million shares, and in early July, completed the prior $5 billion stock authorization.
在資本配置方面,我們在本季回購了 10 億美元的股票,退出了另外 2,200 萬股,並於 7 月初完成了先前的 50 億美元的股票授權。
We ended the quarter with a fully diluted share count of 1.14 billion, a reduction of 18% from a year ago.
本季末,我們的完全攤薄後股票數量為 11.4 億股,比去年同期減少 18%。
The open market share repurchases supplement the ongoing $10 billion ASR that is projected to be completed in the fourth quarter of this year, bringing our share count down to 1.1 billion.
公開市場股票回購補充了正在進行的 100 億美元 ASR,預計今年第四季完成,使我們的股票數量減少至 11 億股。
As a reminder, on the ASR, we paid the $10 billion upfront in December of last year and immediately retired 215 million shares.
提醒一下,在 ASR 上,我們在去年 12 月預付了 100 億美元,並立即退役了 2.15 億股。
In the first quarter, the first tranche was completed and we retired another 4 million shares.
第一季度,第一期完成,我們又註銷了400萬股。
In the second quarter, no additional shares were retired under the ASR as the banks continue to cover their positions in the 215 million shares they borrowed at the outset of the program.
第二季度,由於銀行繼續回補在計畫開始時借入的 2.15 億股股票的頭寸,因此沒有根據 ASR 註銷任何額外股票。
In the fourth quarter, we expect to retire another 20 million to 30 million shares, depending on several factors, including the average share price during that period, bringing the total number of shares retired under the ASR to around 250 million.
在第四季度,我們預計將再註銷 2,000 萬至 3,000 萬股,具體取決於該時期的平均股價等多種因素,從而使 ASR 下註銷的股票總數達到約 2.5 億股。
On top of these measures last month, the Board authorized an additional $6 billion for share repurchases.
除了上個月採取的這些措施外,董事會還額外授權 60 億美元用於股票回購。
Considering our belief that GM's share price is still undervalued, you should expect us to remain active in future share repurchases.
考慮到我們認為通用汽車的股價仍然被低估,您應該期望我們在未來的股票回購中保持積極態度。
Continuing the great progress we have made towards our goal of driving our share count below 1 billion outstanding.
我們繼續朝著將流通股數量控制在 10 億股以下的目標邁進。
Getting into the second quarter results, revenue was up 7% to $48 billion, driven by higher wholesale volumes and stable pricing in North America, we achieved $4.4 billion in EBIT-adjusted, 9.3% EBIT-adjusted margins and $3.6 in EPS diluted adjusted.
進入第二季業績後,在北美批發量增加和定價穩定的推動下,營收成長了7%,達到480 億美元,調整後息稅前利潤為44 億美元,調整後息稅前利潤為9.3% ,攤薄調整後每股收益為3.6 美元。
Recall that in 2023, we had inventory valuation adjustments of $1.7 billion for battery cell and EV finished goods inventory.
回想一下,2023 年,我們對電池和電動車成品庫存進行了 17 億美元的庫存估值調整。
We expected the allowance to be substantially lower in 2024 as we improve EV profitability and reduce our inventory levels.
隨著我們提高電動車獲利能力並降低庫存水平,我們預計 2024 年補助將大幅降低。
We made good progress in these areas during the second quarter and therefore reduced about $300 million of the allowance.
第二季我們在這些領域取得了良好進展,因此減少了約 3 億美元的補貼。
And our guidance includes a similar benefit in both the third and fourth quarters totalling around a $1 billion benefit for the full year.
我們的指引包括第三季和第四季的類似效益,全年效益總計約 10 億美元。
We achieved adjusted automotive free cash flow of $5.3 billion during the second quarter, similar to last year and driven by our strong core operating performance, coupled with our capital discipline.
在我們強勁的核心營運業績以及資本紀律的推動下,我們第二季度實現了 53 億美元的調整後汽車自由現金流,與去年相似。
North America delivered second quarter EBIT-adjusted margins of 10.9%, which resulted in $4.4 billion of EBIT adjusted up $1.2 billion year over year.
北美地區第二季息稅前利潤調整後利潤率為 10.9%,調整後息稅前利潤為 44 億美元,較去年同期成長 12 億美元。
This was driven by higher wholesale volumes, stable pricing, ongoing cost containment, EV valuation allowance benefit and a non-recurrence of the $700 million LG expense that we took last year.
這是由更高的批發量、穩定的價格、持續的成本控制、電動車估值補貼福利以及我們去年承擔的 7 億美元 LG 費用不再重複推動的。
Pricing for the quarter was up $300 million year over year and better than what we assumed in our guidance, supported by new products like the Chevrolet Traverse.
在雪佛蘭 Traverse 等新產品的支持下,本季的定價年增 3 億美元,好於我們在指導中的假設。
Moreover, our HD pickups and full-size SUVs continue to drive robust demand while maintaining low incentives.
此外,我們的高清皮卡和全尺寸 SUV 繼續推動強勁的需求,同時保持較低的激勵措施。
We also benefited from our fixed cost reduction program, realizing $100 million from lower marketing spend compared to last year.
我們還受益於固定成本削減計劃,與去年相比,行銷支出減少了 1 億美元。
We remain on track to achieve $2 billion of net fixed cost savings by the end of 2024.
我們仍有望在 2024 年底前實現淨固定成本節省 20 億美元。
Dealer inventory levels ended the quarter at 66 days.
本季末經銷商庫存水準為 66 天。
This is temporarily above where we were tracking earlier in June as we believe some sales for dealers using the CDK platform were delayed until the third quarter.
這暫時高於我們 6 月初追蹤的水平,因為我們認為使用 CDK 平台的經銷商的一些銷售被推遲到第三季。
We will continue to monitor our inventory and adjust production as necessary to maintain our targeted inventory levels of 50 to 60 days.
我們將繼續監控庫存並根據需要調整生產,以維持 50 至 60 天的目標庫存水準。
GM International second quarter EBIT adjusted was $50 million down $200 million year over year.
通用汽車國際公司第二季調整後息稅前利潤為 5,000 萬美元,較去年同期減少 2 億美元。
China equity income was a loss of $100 million, down $200 million year over year.
中國股權收入虧損1億美元,較去年同期減少2億美元。
Mary already touched on the difficult China market and the immediate steps we have taken with our JV partner to return to profitability as soon as possible.
瑪麗已經談到了困難的中國市場以及我們與合資夥伴為盡快恢復盈利而採取的立即措施。
EBIT adjusted in GM International, excluding China equity income was $150 million flat year over year, but improved more than $50 million sequentially from the first quarter.
通用汽車國際公司調整後的息稅前利潤(不包括中國股權收入)比去年同期持平 1.5 億美元,但較第一季連續成長超過 5,000 萬美元。
GM Financial has consistently performed well with second quarter EBIT adjusted of $800 million, up $50 million year over year and tracking in the range of $2.75 billion to $3 billion for the full year.
通用汽車金融公司一直表現良好,第二季調整後息稅前利潤為 8 億美元,年增 5,000 萬美元,全年在 27.5 億美元至 30 億美元之間。
They continued to drive portfolio growth and paid a $450 million dividend to GM during the quarter.
他們繼續推動投資組合成長,並在本季度向通用汽車支付了 4.5 億美元的股息。
Cruise expenses were $450 million in the quarter, down $150 million from a year ago, reflecting a reduction in operational activities and a technology improvement focus intended to meet the high performance bar expected for EVs.
本季遊輪費用為 4.5 億美元,比去年同期減少 1.5 億美元,反映出營運活動的減少以及旨在滿足電動車預期高性能標準的技術改進重點。
We are very conscious of spend while at the same time, efficiently expanding operations across Phoenix, Dallas and Houston.
我們非常注重支出,同時有效地擴展了鳳凰城、達拉斯和休士頓的業務。
In addition, Mary explained how utilizing the next generation of the Chevrolet Bolt EV will aid in scaling our robot-taxi business to create a more cost effective and scalable option.
此外,瑪麗還解釋了利用下一代雪佛蘭 Bolt EV 將如何幫助擴大我們的機器人計程車業務,以創建更具成本效益和可擴展的選擇。
However, the decision to pause the production of Cruise Origin triggered a charge of roughly $600 million, which we recorded as a special item in the second quarter.
然而,暫停 Cruise Origin 生產的決定引發了約 6 億美元的費用,我們在第二季將其記錄為特殊項目。
Let's move now to our updated guidance.
現在讓我們看看更新後的指南。
Given the positive momentum we've seen thus far and our confidence in the rest of the year we are raising full year 2024 guidance to EBIT adjusted in the $13 billion to $15 billion range.
鑑於我們迄今為止看到的積極勢頭以及我們對今年剩餘時間的信心,我們將 2024 年全年息稅前利潤指引上調至 130 億至 150 億美元範圍。
EPS diluted adjusted in the $9.50 to $10.50 per share range and adjusted automotive free cash flow in the $9.5 million to $11.5 billion range.
調整後每股攤薄每股收益在 9.50 美元至 10.50 美元範圍內,調整後汽車自由現金流在 950 萬美元至 115 億美元範圍內。
Our cash flow guidance increases larger than our EBIT increase, primarily due to production alignment to market demand and further working capital benefits over the balance of the year.
我們的現金流量指引增幅大於息稅前利潤增幅,主要是因為生產符合市場需求以及今年剩餘時間的進一步營運資本效益。
I'd also like to address why the implied second half EBIT adjusted is around $2.5 billion lower at the midpoint of our guidance range compared to the first half.
我還想解釋為什麼下半年隱含的調整後息稅前利潤比上半年低約 25 億美元(在我們指引範圍的中點)。
There are three main reasons: first, we are assuming a bigger pricing headwind.
主要原因有三:首先,我們假設價格面臨更大的阻力。
Our guidance assumes pricing to be down 1% to 1.5% year over year in the second half versus essentially flat in the first half, which is a substantial improvement from where we started the year.
我們的指導假設下半年定價將年減 1% 至 1.5%,而上半年則基本持平,這與我們年初的情況相比有很大改善。
Second, roughly $1 billion of costs are second half weighted.
其次,大約 10 億美元的成本是下半年加權的。
This includes about $400 million higher marketing spend to support more launches in the back half of the year.
其中包括增加約 4 億美元的行銷支出,以支持下半年推出更多產品。
The remainder is related to higher commodity prices, particularly copper and aluminium and the timing of other EV costs, which we do not anticipate to be ongoing.
其餘的則與商品價格上漲有關,特別是銅和鋁,以及其他電動車成本的時間安排,我們預計這種情況不會持續下去。
Third, EV volumes are expected to build sequentially every quarter to achieve our full year target of 200,000 to 250,000.
第三,電動車銷量預計每季都會依次增加,以實現我們 20 萬至 25 萬輛的全年目標。
We produced and wholesaled 75,000 GM Ultium EVs in the first half of the year and expect this number to accelerate as we launch and ramp our new vehicles.
今年上半年,我們生產和批發了 75,000 輛通用汽車 Ultium 電動車,預計隨著我們推出和量產新車,這一數字將會加速。
As a result, mix will be a bigger headwind in the back half of the year as EVs have a variable profit lower than the portfolio average.
因此,由於電動車的可變利潤低於投資組合的平均水平,混合動力車將在今年下半年成為更大的阻力。
We continue to monitor EV demand and inventory levels very closely.
我們繼續密切監控電動車需求和庫存水準。
We acknowledge that Altium wholesales outpaced customer deliveries by about two to one for the first half of the year.
我們承認,今年上半年 Altium 批發量比客戶交付量高出約二比一。
This, however, is common when introducing a new vehicle given the need to build availability, options and customer awareness.
然而,考慮到需要建立可用性、選項和客戶意識,在推出新車時,這種情況很常見。
As time goes on.
隨著時間的推移。
If customer deliveries were to continue lagging wholesales, we will take proactive steps to balance production levels.
如果客戶交貨繼續落後於批發,我們將採取積極措施來平衡生產水準。
The last item on EVs is that I'm pleased to report that we are making good progress towards achieving vehicle variable profit on our EV portfolio in the fourth quarter.
關於電動車的最後一項是,我很高興地報告,我們在第四季度實現電動車投資組合的車輛可變利潤方面取得了良好進展。
Key drivers to reach this goal include, improved manufacturing scale and efficiencies, including module and pack assembly, reduce cell costs from improved scale and performance at our Ultium Cells JV, including working through our inventory of cells produced with higher battery raw materials.
實現這一目標的關鍵驅動因素包括提高製造規模和效率(包括模組和電池組組裝)、透過提高 Ultium Cells 合資公司的規模和性能來降低電池成本,包括處理使用更高電池原材料生產的電池庫存。
This has helped reduce our average cell cost by roughly $30 a kilowatt hour sequentially from the first quarter, and we expect further improvements in the second half of the year.
這幫助我們的平均電池成本比第一季連續降低了約 30 美元每千瓦時,我們預計下半年將進一步改善。
And finally, improved vehicle mix as we scale our electric full-size trucks and SUVs.
最後,隨著我們擴大電動全尺寸卡車和 SUV 的規模,車輛組合也得到了改善。
In closing, we are committed to maintaining the strong financial performance we accomplished in the first half of the year and consistently adhering to our capital allocation framework.
最後,我們致力於維持上半年的強勁財務業績,並始終堅持我們的資本配置架構。
It is underpinned by a focus on cost containment, capital efficiency and agility in navigating the complexities of our business.
它的基礎是對成本控制、資本效率和應對複雜業務的敏捷性的關注。
We are differentiating ourselves from our peers with superior product offerings and improving execution.
我們透過提供卓越的產品和不斷提高的執行力從同行中脫穎而出。
We are market leaders in the truck and full-size SUV segments, growing market share in affordable SUVs and our refreshed midsize SUVs are some of the fastest growing vehicles in the segment.
我們是卡車和全尺寸 SUV 領域的市場領導者,在經濟型 SUV 領域的市場份額不斷增長,而我們更新的中型 SUV 是該領域增長最快的車輛之一。
While yielding higher profitabilities than the preceding models.
同時比之前的型號產生更高的獲利能力。
At the same time, we are growing and improving profitability on our EV portfolio, along with developing a world-class software organization and making steady progress at cruise.
同時,我們正在發展和提高電動車產品組合的獲利能力,同時發展世界一流的軟體組織並在郵輪領域取得穩步進展。
As always, our customers and their safety will be at the center of everything we do and is fundamental to our continued success.
一如既往,我們的客戶及其安全將是我們所做一切的中心,也是我們持續成功的基礎。
This concludes our opening comments, and we'll now move to the Q&A portion of the call.
我們的開場評論到此結束,現在我們將進入電話會議的問答部分。
Operator
Operator
As a reminder to analysts, we are asking that you limit your questions to one and a brief follow-up so that we may get to everyone on the call.
作為對分析師的提醒,我們要求您將問題限制為一個問題和一個簡短的後續行動,以便我們能夠聯繫到電話會議中的每個人。
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員說明)
Dan Levy with Barclays.
巴克萊銀行的丹·利維。
Dan Levy - Analyst
Dan Levy - Analyst
Hi, good morning.
早安.
Thank you for taking the questions.
感謝您提出問題。
Wanted to start first with a question on pricing.
想先從定價問題開始。
If you could just provide a bit of context on the pricing strength.
如果您能提供一些有關定價優勢的背景資訊。
We've seen not only in 2Q, but in 1Q, if you just look at the incentives, are clearly up, but your pricing has actually been net flat on any color behind this?
我們不僅在第二季度看到,而且在第一季都看到,如果你只看激勵措施,顯然是上漲的,但你的定價實際上在這背後的任何顏色上都是淨持平的?
And then maybe you could just talk to the sustainability of this in light of the fact that we've seen some inventory normalization, but price has held in on and do you view this price as sustainable beyond this year.
然後,也許您可以討論這種情況的可持續性,因為我們已經看到一些庫存正常化,但價格一直保持不變,您認為這個價格在今年之後是否可持續。
Factoring in that there is going to be some increase in and incentives as inventory ticks up further from here.
考慮到隨著庫存進一步增加,激勵措施將會增加。
Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, good morning, Dan, and thanks for the question, first of all.
是的,早上好,丹,首先感謝你提出這個問題。
So, what I would say is that obviously, we've been very disciplined about our commercial strategy and going to market.
所以,我想說的是,顯然,我們對我們的商業策略和市場開拓非常嚴格。
And despite the fact that we've seen a little bit of pressure year-over-year on incentives, we've actually widened the gap in the quarter against our competitive set.
儘管事實上我們在激勵措施方面逐年受到了一些壓力,但實際上我們在本季度擴大了與競爭對手的差距。
So demand for our vehicles is strong.
因此,對我們車輛的需求非常強勁。
And I think some of the offsets are our truck sales were up 5% in the quarter, we continue to pick up share, and that's helped to offset some of the lower ATP vehicles.
我認為部分抵消是我們的卡車銷售在本季度增長了 5%,我們的份額繼續增加,這有助於抵消一些 ATP 車輛較低的影響。
And we've seen in the growth in the tracks, for example.
例如,我們已經看到了軌道的成長。
So I think we've been saying for a long time that our consumer has held up really well and it's been resilient and we expect that to continue to be the same way.
因此,我認為我們長期以來一直在說,我們的消費者表現得非常好,並且具有彈性,我們預計這種情況將繼續如此。
I think a big part of that is the strategy that we've undertaken about being very disciplined in inventory and more data flow about producing the vehicles that we know that the customers are demanding.
我認為其中很大一部分是我們所採取的策略,即在庫存方面非常嚴格,並在生產我們知道客戶需要的車輛時提供更多資料流。
And when you combine that with the incredibly strong portfolio we have, I think this is the result.
當你將其與我們擁有的極其強大的產品組合結合時,我認為這就是結果。
Dan Levy - Analyst
Dan Levy - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thank you.
謝謝。
As a follow-up, I wanted to ask about your EV strategy.
作為後續行動,我想問一下你們的電動車戰略。
And this is in light of maybe some of the potential changes we may be seeing in the regulatory environment, given the upcoming (inaudible) know there's obviously one candidate in the US presidential elections talked about pulling back the EV mandate and maybe there's some implications on things like IRA or EPA?
這是考慮到我們可能在監管環境中看到的一些潛在變化,考慮到即將到來的(聽不清楚)知道美國總統選舉中顯然有一位候選人談到了撤回電動車授權,這可能會對像IRA或EPA 之類的東西?
And if -- so, to what extent if we see a pullback in some of these standards, does that modify your EV strategy?
如果—那麼,如果我們看到其中一些標準有所下降,這會在多大程度上改變您的電動車策略?
Is your EV strategy, one that is, driven more by regulations or do you view your EV strategy as a bit more fixed part given the long-term strategic goals of GM and also just the longer planning cycles for
您的電動車策略是更受法規驅動的策略,還是考慮到通用汽車的長期策略目標以及更長的規劃週期,您是否認為您的電動車策略是更固定的部分?
[products]?
[產品]?
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks for the question.
謝謝你的提問。
Our strategy is to offer consumers choice, we've got an incredible portfolio of vehicles, both EV and ICE and we've got flexibility.
我們的策略是為消費者提供選擇,我們擁有令人難以置信的車輛組合,包括電動車和內燃機汽車,並且我們具有靈活性。
So we know we can win more customers as they embrace EVs.
因此,我們知道,隨著更多客戶擁抱電動車,我們可以贏得更多客戶。
We're seeing that right now with 54% of the EV sales being new customers that are new to GM.
我們發現,目前 54% 的電動車銷售量是通用汽車的新客戶。
And so we do think the market will for EVs will continue to grow.
因此,我們確實認為電動車的市場將繼續成長。
And we've got the performance, the technology and the range that customers want, especially when you look at our portfolio with the Equinox coming out right now, the affordability of that vehicle along with when we have the Bolt next year, if we're giving consumers that choice and as I've said, EVs are fun to drive, instant torque, I think our EVs have beautiful designs, the right range, the right performance.
我們擁有客戶想要的性能、技術和範圍,特別是當你看看我們現在推出的 Equinox 的產品組合時,該車輛的承受能力以及明年我們推出 Bolt 時的價格,如果我們’我們正在為消費者提供這樣的選擇,正如我所說,電動車駕駛起來很有趣,扭矩很大,我認為我們的電動車擁有漂亮的設計、合適的續航里程和合適的性能。
So again, we'll be guided by the consumer and regardless of what the regulatory environment is, regardless of what we're going to work to maximize because we've got that flexibility between ICE and EV.
因此,我們將再次以消費者為指導,無論監管環境如何,無論我們將努力最大化什麼,因為我們在內燃機和電動車之間擁有靈活性。
So I think we're in a very strong position.
所以我認為我們處於非常有利的地位。
I think we also have to look at though the investments (inaudible) made in EVs, we're creating thousands of jobs all over the country, including Ohio, Michigan and Tennessee.
我認為我們還必須考慮雖然對電動車的投資(聽不清楚),但我們正在全國各地創造數千個就業機會,包括俄亥俄州、密西根州和田納西州。
So I'm pleased with where our strategy is.
所以我對我們的策略感到滿意。
I think regardless of what happens from a regulatory perspective, we're going to be well positioned with our port with our ICE and with our EV portfolio.
我認為,無論從監管角度來看會發生什麼,我們的港口、ICE 和電動車產品組合都將處於有利地位。
Dan Levy - Analyst
Dan Levy - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Itay Michaeli, Citi.
伊泰‧米凱利,花旗銀行。
Itay Michaeli - Analyst
Itay Michaeli - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Good morning, everyone, and congrats on the quarter.
大家早安,恭喜本季。
Maybe a first question for Paul back on the second half bridge and thank you for the color.
也許是保羅在下半場的第一個問題,謝謝你的顏色。
On the 1.5% negative pricing assumption, as I compare to what you're assuming for the industry in the second half?
我將 1.5% 的負定價假設與您對下半年行業的假設進行了比較?
And also how should we think about at a high level sensitivity to if the volume targets second half of the year, a little bit that the funds are becoming lower, I think about the puts and takes in the model for that.
另外,如果交易量目標是今年下半年,那麼我們應該如何高度敏感地考慮資金是否會變得更低,我會考慮模型中的看跌期權和買入期權。
And secondly, maybe for Mary, on crews on how you're thinking about strategically on taking cruise to market as a rideshare operator as opposed to maybe finding partners to deploy on the next book.
其次,也許對瑪麗來說,關於船員們如何策略性地思考如何將郵輪作為共乘業者推向市場,而不是尋找合作夥伴來部署下一本書。
Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
And I think retail, I'll go ahead and start with the first two questions.
我認為零售業,我將繼續從前兩個問題開始。
On the second half, we tend to stay very, very focused on what we see for pricing for ourselves.
在下半年,我們傾向於非常非常關注我們自己的定價。
Obviously, there's a lot of noise going on with different incentive strategies, different inventory levels, et cetera.
顯然,不同的激勵策略、不同的庫存水平等等都會產生很多噪音。
So that's an assumption that we bake in based on what our -- what we're seeing in the market and making sure that we're projecting the right amount of conservatism against our cash flow targets and plans.
因此,這是一個假設,我們根據我們在市場上看到的情況進行調整,並確保我們根據現金流目標和計劃預測適當的保守程度。
So we started the year saying down 2 to 2.5.
因此,我們在今年伊始就表示下降 2 至 2.5。
We've got through the first half of the year, essentially flat.
我們已經度過了今年上半年,基本上持平。
And what I would say is July to date looks very similar to June.
我想說的是,到目前為止,七月看起來與六月非常相似。
So we're going to continue to push through month by month quarter by quarter on the portfolio that works for us.
因此,我們將繼續逐月、逐季地推進適合我們的投資組合。
So we've managed to do that through various incentive strategies and various inventory pushes that we've seen from our competitors.
因此,我們已經透過競爭對手的各種激勵策略和各種庫存推動來做到這一點。
And we're going to just be focused on meeting our customer demand the best we can.
我們將專注於盡力滿足客戶的需求。
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Okay.
好的。
And as it relates to cruise and we've worked very hard as you look at what's happening with artificial intelligence applications across many industry, customers have an expectation of higher performance from technology than they necessarily do in our case for other human beings.
由於它與郵輪相關,當你看到許多行業的人工智慧應用程式正在發生的事情時,我們非常努力地工作,客戶對技術的期望比我們對其他人類的情況所必需的更高。
So our target now instead of being better than an average driver is to be better than a role model driver and tremendous work has gone on over the last few months.
因此,我們現在的目標不是比普通車手更好,而是比模範車手更好,在過去的幾個月裡我們進行了大量的工作。
So as we are rolling out now into three cities as I mentioned the technology is much more advanced to be better than a role model driver.
因此,正如我所提到的,我們現在正在向三個城市推廣,這項技術比模範司機要先進得多。
We've also expanded our safety metrics and to make sure it measures across many scenarios.
我們還擴展了安全指標,並確保它能夠在多種情況下進行衡量。
So I'm very confident as we now have the vehicles operating and we're on the path very quickly to get to back to driverless with much safer technology, again, getting to this better than a role model driver.
因此,我非常有信心,因為我們現在已經有車輛在運行,並且我們很快就會以更安全的技術回歸無人駕駛,再次比模範司機更好地實現這一目標。
So when I look at that, we can provide an exceptional driver experience as we continue to grow.
因此,當我看到這一點時,隨著我們的不斷發展,我們可以提供卓越的駕駛員體驗。
Now when you talk about us what is the right balance between expansion, capital demands and partners and or investors, we're very open and we're seeing significant interest in cruise.
現在,當您談論我們擴張、資本需求以及合作夥伴和/或投資者之間的正確平衡時,我們非常開放,並且我們看到了對郵輪的濃厚興趣。
So as we move into this next phase, we're going to be looking at what's the right efficient way to go forward with crews from a robotaxi business from a cruise perspective.
因此,當我們進入下一階段時,我們將研究從郵輪角度與機器人計程車業務的工作人員一起前進的正確有效方法。
But also we are staying very laser-focused on the personal autonomous vehicle opportunity for GM.
但我們也非常關注通用汽車的個人自動駕駛汽車機會。
So we think we're well positioned, we'll share more as we go through the year, but we have significant outside interest from a partner and investor perspective.
因此,我們認為我們處於有利位置,我們將在這一年中分享更多信息,但從合作夥伴和投資者的角度來看,我們有很大的外部興趣。
Itay Michaeli - Analyst
Itay Michaeli - Analyst
Perfect.
完美的。
That's all very helpful.
這一切都非常有幫助。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Let me just go back.
讓我回去吧。
I think I missed the second part of your question on the sensitivity of the EV volume from that.
我想我錯過了你關於電動車音量靈敏度問題的第二部分。
So you saw what are we originally gave our guide on production.
所以你看到了我們最初提供的生產指南是什麼。
We are at 200,000 to 300,000.
我們有20萬到30萬。
We talked about being able to get to variable profit positive in the low 200 thousands.
我們討論了能夠獲得 20 萬以下的正可變利潤。
We're still holding to that, although with the 200 to 250, we pulled that from the second half to the fourth quarter.
我們仍然堅持這一點,儘管在 200 到 250 的情況下,我們把這一點從下半年拉到了第四季。
So I know it doesn't give you a specific answer, but directionally, obviously, scale is a big part of what we're doing.
所以我知道它不會給你一個具體的答案,但從方向上看,顯然,規模是我們正在做的事情的重要組成部分。
All a lot of the battery costs, cell cost improvement that we've seen is it's been driven by efficiency and scale with the plant.
我們看到的所有電池成本、電池成本的改善都是由工廠的效率和規模所推動的。
So it's something that we continue to watch and we're continuing to strive for, but nothing more specific than that.
因此,這是我們繼續專注並繼續努力的目標,但沒有什麼比這更具體的了。
Itay Michaeli - Analyst
Itay Michaeli - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Joseph Spak, UBS.
約瑟夫‧斯帕克,瑞銀集團。
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Good morning, everyone.
大家,早安。
Paul, thanks for all the additional color on costs in the back half, I guess to counter some of those higher costs you mentioned or you still have the fixed cost savings program, you're on track for the $2 billion.
保羅,感謝後半部分對成本的所有額外說明,我想為了抵消你提到的一些較高成本,或者你仍然有固定成本節約計劃,你有望實現 20 億美元。
If we're sort of tracking this, it looks like you did maybe $1 billion last year and maybe $400 million the first half, so another $600 million in the back half.
如果我們對此進行追踪,看起來去年你可能賺了 10 億美元,上半年可能賺了 4 億美元,所以下半年又賺了 6 億美元。
I just want to make sure that sort of ballpark correct.
我只是想確保這種大致情況是正確的。
And if it is and just maybe some color on why it's actually accelerating or higher because I think like if we think about last year, the costs also were more back-end loaded.
如果是這樣,也許只是一些關於為什麼它實際上在加速或更高的顏色,因為我認為就像我們想想去年一樣,成本也更多地由後端承擔。
So it's sort of a tougher comp so what else is being done here to drive the cost savings higher?
所以這是一個更嚴格的競爭,那麼這裡還採取了什麼措施來進一步節省成本呢?
Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, good morning, Joe. Thanks for the question.
是的,早上好,喬。謝謝你的提問。
So I would say directionally, your math is pretty accurate on about the $1.4 billion of the $2 billion, I would look at the biggest cost increase that we highlighted on the call is about $400 million of marketing spend and that is first half to second half.
所以我想說的是,你的數學對於20 億美元中的14 億美元是相當準確的,我會看看我們在電話會議上強調的最大成本增加是大約4 億美元的營銷支出,這是上半年到下半年。
So marketing spend overall is still down significantly and the team has done a great job of driving more efficiency into what we're doing.
因此,整體行銷支出仍然大幅下降,團隊在提高我們正在做的事情的效率方面做得很好。
But obviously, with the launches that we have in the second half of the year, there's a there's a significant lean in to drive that customer awareness and we think that's actually an opportunity for us to help us scale and to help us see us outsized share gains in EV.
但顯然,隨著我們在下半年推出的產品,我們將顯著提高客戶意識,我們認為這實際上是我們幫助我們擴大規模並幫助我們看到巨大份額的機會電動車的收益。
So I would say it's timing within the larger pool of significant savings initiatives out of that category.
因此,我想說,這是該類別中更大範圍的重大節約舉措中的時機。
That's the biggest piece of it, but we're continuing to work on it, and we believe that we'll be successful in that $2 billion cost reduction target that we laid out and we're not going to stop there.
這是其中最重要的一部分,但我們正在繼續努力,我們相信我們將成功實現我們制定的 20 億美元成本削減目標,而且我們不會就此止步。
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Okay, thanks for that.
好的,謝謝。
First half, second half clarification on the marketing.
上半年、下半年對行銷的澄清。
And then, Mary, just on the origin decision, obviously some cost savings, but I guess is there also -- and I know I think you're still undergoing the strategic review for cruise, but does this also indicate a change in going market strategy and sort of not having that purpose-built vehicle, like what were some of the other considerations is sharing just not really you think viable for that business model?
然後,瑪麗,就原產地決定而言,顯然可以節省一些成本,但我想也有 - 我知道我認為您仍在對郵輪進行戰略審查,但這是否也表明市場發生了變化戰略以及沒有那種專用工具,例如其他一些考慮因素是共享,但您認為這種商業模式並不可行?
Are there other use cases versus what you're originally planning for?
與您最初計劃的用途相比,還有其他用例嗎?
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I think the main reason is with going to switching from the origin to the bowl is we extinguish the regulatory risk.
是的,我認為主要原因是從原產地轉向碗是我們消除監管風險。
Remember it because that origin doesn't have steering wheels and some other motor vehicle safety standard components.
請記住它,因為該起源沒有方向盤和其他一些機動車輛安全標準組件。
It doesn't meet motor vehicle safety standards that requires a legislative change.
它不符合需要立法修改的機動車輛安全標準。
We've been working on that.
我們一直在努力。
It's been difficult to get done.
這很難完成。
And with that, if we don't get that legislative change or authorization from a government perspective, we're limited in the number of origins we could put out.
因此,如果我們沒有從政府的角度獲得立法變更或授權,我們可以推出的起源數量就會受到限制。
So as we looked at this, we thought it was better to get rid of that risk and then when we looked at the [bold], it's been, I think, a very good product for the initial rollout from an EV perspective, where we have over 5 million miles traveled and it allows us to be more capital efficient and get better scale on the bold EV as we roll it out next year based on the Ultium platform.
因此,當我們看到這個時,我們認為最好消除這種風險,然後當我們看到[粗體]時,我認為,從電動車的角度來看,這是一個非常好的初始推出產品,我們在其中行駛里程超過 500 萬英里,這使我們能夠提高資本效率,並在明年推出基於 Ultium 平台的大膽電動車時獲得更大的規模。
So I would say it was mainly driven by the uncertainty that we have from a regulatory perspective.
所以我想說,這主要是由監管角度的不確定性所驅動的。
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Daniel Roska, Bernstein Research.
丹尼爾‧羅斯卡,伯恩斯坦研究中心。
Daniel Roska - Analyst
Daniel Roska - Analyst
Hey, good morning, everybody.
嘿,大家早安。
Thanks for taking my question.
感謝您提出我的問題。
Dan from Bernstein, maybe following on the EV question we've had, could you elaborate a bit on your outlook for emissions compliance, kind of if we stay within the current EPA framework, kind of what level of drivetrain mix credit would you expect to need to have to achieve the 27 targets.
來自Bernstein 的丹,也許在回答我們提出的電動車問題後,您能否詳細說明一下您對排放合規性的展望,如果我們保持在當前的EPA 框架內,您期望的傳動系統組合信用水平是多少?
And then following on from Dan's question earlier, if any administration or either administration should decide to revisit the EPA target, could you outline what you would expect what the time line would be to actually be effective for 2027.
接續 Dan 之前的問題,如果任何政府或任何一個政府決定重新審視 EPA 目標,您能否概述一下 2027 年實際生效的時間表。
So what is the latest point in time, when an administration and the EPA would need to kick off kind of that process to revisit the 27 target?
那麼,政府和環保署需要啟動某種流程以重新審視 27 個目標的最新時間點是什麼?
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Sure.
當然。
Well, either for General Motors to comply with the existing regulations, we have many levers that we can pull, including how we plan our portfolio, the technology that we use on the vehicles we can utilize credits from prior and future model years and purchase credits as well as have a robust EV portfolio.
好吧,為了讓通用汽車遵守現有法規,我們有很多可以利用的槓桿,包括我們如何規劃我們的產品組合、我們在車輛上使用的技術、我們可以利用之前和未來車型年份的積分併購買積分以及擁有強大的電動車產品組合。
And so we look at this on a regular basis based on what's happening with EV adoption with based on what's happening with the regs and make those decisions.
因此,我們根據電動車採用情況和法規情況定期審視這一點,並做出這些決定。
So it's something we have a lot of flexibility and obviously we intend to meet the regulatory environment.
因此,我們有很大的靈活性,顯然我們打算滿足監管環境的要求。
It's really hard for me to predict on what the timeline would be, if something is going to change.
如果事情發生變化,我真的很難預測時間表會是怎麼樣。
I would say that we just we look at our portfolio on a regular basis with not only on what we know the rigs to be and make sure we have a plan there.
我想說的是,我們只是定期查看我們的投資組合,不僅是我們所知道的鑽孔機,並確保我們有一個計劃。
And then we do scenario planning for what potentially could happen and then we have that range of opportunities.
然後我們對可能發生的情況進行情境規劃,然後我們就有了一系列的機會。
So we'll continue with that process.
所以我們將繼續這個過程。
I mean, if you think about it for the last several years, the regulatory environment has not been certain, I would say what's really important to us.
我的意思是,如果你考慮過去幾年的情況,監管環境並不確定,我會說什麼對我們來說真正重要。
So the company overall is to have a regulatory certainty.
所以公司整體來說是有監管確定性的。
And so we'll be watching with interest as we as we get past the election and look at what the what the what the regs will be, if they change at all.
因此,當我們通過選舉時,我們將饒有興趣地關注,看看法規將會是什麼,如果它們有任何改變的話。
But I think we have the flexibility test to moderate based on what we see.
但我認為我們有靈活性測試,可以根據我們所看到的情況進行調整。
Daniel Roska - Analyst
Daniel Roska - Analyst
Thanks Mary.
謝謝瑪麗。
And maybe following up if the regulations for 27 kind of stay, as they are right now with a more ambitious path, what role could a mild or full hybrid kind of play in your portfolio.
如果 27 種法規繼續存在,也許會跟進,因為它們現在有一條更雄心勃勃的道路,溫和或完全混合類型會在您的投資組合中發揮什麼作用。
And if they stay as ambitious as they are right now, would you consider to kind of increase your focus on hybrid drive frames in the US?
如果他們像現在一樣雄心勃勃,您會考慮增加對美國混合動力車架的關注嗎?
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Well, as we've said, we plan to have hybrids in key segments not across the board, but in key segment segments in the 2027 time frame it because of where the regulatory environment looks to be right now.
嗯,正如我們所說,我們計劃在關鍵細分市場中採用混合動力,但不是全面實施,而是在2027 年時間框架內的關鍵細分市場中實施混合動力,因為目前的監管環境看起來如此。
So we have that opportunity, we can decide what we put on the fleet or what segments we put on based on where we see the regulatory environment.
因此,我們有這個機會,我們可以根據我們所看到的監管環境來決定我們在機隊中放置什麼或我們放置哪些部分。
So that's definitely one of the technologies that we can leverage.
所以這絕對是我們可以利用的技術之一。
And as we've already said, we plan to have hybrids in key segments in the 27 timeframe.
正如我們已經說過的,我們計劃在 27 年內在關鍵領域採用混合動力。
Daniel Roska - Analyst
Daniel Roska - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thanks for confirming that.
感謝您確認這一點。
Operator
Operator
Ryan Brinkman, J. P. Morgan.
瑞安·布林克曼,摩根大通。
Ryan Brinkman - Analyst
Ryan Brinkman - Analyst
Good morning.
早安.
Thanks for taking my question.
感謝您提出我的問題。
Obviously, it is the strong performance in North America, but just the driver of the total company results, certainly congrats on that.
顯然,這是北美地區的強勁表現,但這只是公司整體業績的驅動力,當然值得祝賀。
I think to ask though, on the performance in China, including after it was a little surprising to see the equity loss fairly consistent with 1Q despite a solid rebound in both for sales and non-consolidated revenue.
不過,我想問在中國的表現,包括儘管銷售和非合併收入均強勁反彈,但股權損失與第一季相當一致,這有點令人驚訝。
I know you don't provide a detailed bridge for the non-consolidated up specifically, but from the sequential volume change, it would seem to imply either price or mix or cost headwind quarter over quarter.
我知道您沒有專門為非合併提供詳細的橋樑,但從連續的數量變化來看,這似乎意味著價格或組合或成本逐季逆風。
I'm guessing price given some of the comments from other automakers in that country, but perhaps you can fill us in there.
我根據該國其他汽車製造商的一些評論來猜測價格,但也許您可以在那裡告訴我們。
And then, I'm not sure if you're able to comment on what actions might be being considered in conjunction with their partner.
然後,我不確定您是否能夠評論與他們的伴侶一起考慮採取哪些行動。
But should we expect more that you are ready in a portfolio of vehicles, maybe any deals that you expect could gain greater traction?
但是,我們是否應該對您在車輛投資組合中做好的更多準備抱有更多期望,也許您期望的任何交易都會獲得更大的吸引力?
Or are you contemplating more rightsizing actions or some combination?
或者您正在考慮採取更多規模調整行動或某種組合?
And if you were to undertake right-sizing actions.
如果您要採取適當規模的行動。
I can't really remember you reducing capacity in that country before at least not structurally.
我真的不記得你之前曾經削減過該國的產能,至少不是結構性的。
So perhaps you could update us and what kind of flexibility you might have in that market to take capacity out, how does it compare to North America today, for example, or maybe to Europe in the past when you operated in that region?
那麼,也許您可以向我們介紹最新情況,以及您在該市場上可能有什麼樣的靈活性來釋放產能,例如,與今天的北美相比,或者與過去您在該地區運營時的歐洲相比如何?
Thank you.
謝謝。
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah.
是的。
First off, we continue to see the challenges in China, very few people are making money, and a lot of OEMs are prioritizing production over profitability.
首先,我們繼續看到中國面臨的挑戰,很少有人能賺錢,而且許多原始設備製造商都將生產置於盈利之上。
So I think the work that we've been we have been on more disciplined than most in our pricing, and we are launching some new vehicles that we're seeing positive traction, but it's a difficult market right now and with frankly, it's unsustainable because the amount of companies losing money there cannot continue indefinitely.
因此,我認為我們所做的工作在定價方面比大多數人都更加嚴格,我們正在推出一些新車,我們看到了積極的吸引力,但現在這是一個困難的市場,坦率地說,這是不可持續的因為那裡的公司虧損的情況不可能無限期地持續下去。
And really when you get into the type of pricing war that's going on now it's really a race to the bottom and you destroy residuals.
事實上,當你陷入現在正在進行的價格戰時,這實際上是一場逐底競爭,你會摧毀剩餘價值。
There's nothing good that comes from the behavior that we're seeing right now.
我們現在看到的行為並沒有帶來任何好處。
Having said that, we are taking -- we've taken several steps of getting our inventory write up, launching some products that we think are either going to be better received than some of the NEVs we had a couple of years ago, especially hybrids and full electric.
話雖如此,我們正在採取——我們已經採取了幾個步驟來增加我們的庫存,推出一些我們認為比我們幾年前擁有的一些新能源汽車更受歡迎的產品,尤其是混合動力汽車和全電動。
And then as it relates to the work that we're doing with our partner out of respect for our partnership, I will read more details as the decision is made, but I'm not going to go into detail of all the different items that we're contemplating.
然後,由於它涉及我們出於對合作夥伴關係的尊重而與合作夥伴一起做的工作,因此我將在做出決定時閱讀更多詳細信息,但我不會詳細介紹所有不同的項目我們正在考慮。
Ryan Brinkman - Analyst
Ryan Brinkman - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thank you.
謝謝。
And maybe you could comment quickly, too, on the trend in your other international operations, including and consolidate operations in Korea and Brazil to curious on the trend there.
也許您也可以快速評論其他國際業務的趨勢,包括並整合韓國和巴西的業務,以對那裡的趨勢感到好奇。
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
In Q2, when you say the trend you're talking about, I can't keep a little bit more what your -- specifically
在第二季度,當你談到你正在談論的趨勢時,我無法保留更多你的趨勢——具體來說
--
--
Ryan Brinkman - Analyst
Ryan Brinkman - Analyst
The trend in the profitability in those markets for you.
這些市場的獲利趨勢為您服務。
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I would say in our GM International markets outside of China, we're seeing strong pricing.
是的,我想說,在中國以外的通用汽車國際市場,我們看到了強勁的定價。
If you look at South America, for example, Chevy is considered a premium or luxury brand, and we've got a really strong portfolio with great, great brand loyalty and brand recognition.
例如,如果你看看南美洲,雪佛蘭被認為是高端或豪華品牌,我們擁有非常強大的產品組合,具有非常非常高的品牌忠誠度和品牌認知。
And we're seeing -- we're able to hold and hold pricing and compete by the way because of the value of the Chevy related branded products.
我們看到—由於雪佛蘭相關品牌產品的價值,我們能夠保持價格並競爭。
Again, in differ, we're seeing that across to varying levels across all of the international markets.
同樣,不同的是,我們在所有國際市場上都看到了不同程度的情況。
So again, disciplined execution pays off over the longer period.
再說一遍,嚴格的執行會在較長時期帶來回報。
And this is a long, game that we play when we look at managing our brand strength, managing the residuals of our products, et cetera.
當我們考慮管理我們的品牌實力、管理我們產品的剩餘部分等等時,這是一個漫長的遊戲。
Ryan Brinkman - Analyst
Ryan Brinkman - Analyst
Very helpful.
很有幫助。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Dan Ives, Wedbush.
丹艾夫斯,韋德布希。
Dan Ives - Analyst
Dan Ives - Analyst
Yeah, thanks.
是的,謝謝。
Other question with when you think about new GM customers looking at EVs and that trend's been high.
當你想到通用汽車的新客戶正在考慮電動車時,另一個問題是,這種趨勢一直很高。
Is that something that you expect to continue or maybe even could accelerate depending on the models and the price points when you look out the next call, one to two years?
當您考慮下一次電話會議(一到兩年)時,您是否預計這種情況會持續下去,甚至可能會加速,具體取決於型號和價格點?
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Absolutely, Dan, I believe when you look at the portfolio entries that we have coming, the fact that we have fresh design to performance and technology on these vehicles along with the range is great.
當然,丹,我相信當您查看我們即將推出的產品組合時,您會發現我們對這些車輛的性能和技術以及產品系列進行了全新的設計,這是非常棒的。
So for those that are already EV and tenders that might want to replace the existing EV, they have any the response we're getting from dealers about the new Equinox CB is just outstanding.
因此,對於那些已經是電動車和可能想要更換現有電動車的投標者來說,我們從經銷商那裡得到的關於新 Equinox CB 的反應非常出色。
When they say they look at the design of the vehicle, the performance and the affordability, especially with the consumer tax credit.
當他們說他們會關注車輛的設計、性能和承受能力時,尤其是消費者稅收抵免。
So I think we have an opportunity to continue to outperform where the industry is, and we're going to look to build on that because we really believe in our portfolio, that's why we're spending the marketing dollars to make sure we get the awareness and our dealers are excited.
因此,我認為我們有機會繼續超越行業,我們將在此基礎上繼續發展,因為我們真的相信我們的產品組合,這就是為什麼我們花費行銷資金來確保我們獲得意識和我們的經銷商都很興奮。
So I feel like we're well positioned to continue that growth.
所以我覺得我們有能力繼續這種成長。
Dan Ives - Analyst
Dan Ives - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
John Murphy, Bank of America.
約翰‧墨菲,美國銀行。
John Murphy - Analyst
John Murphy - Analyst
Good morning, everybody.
大家早安。
I just wanted to follow up on pricing, (inaudible) you guys updated your guidance a little bit optimistic, more optimistic about what's going on in the second half.
我只是想跟進定價,(聽不清楚)你們更新了你們的指導,有點樂觀,對下半年發生的事情更加樂觀。
And you had one full year and had good performance in the first half.
而你已經度過了整整一年,上半年也有不錯的表現。
But you know, as we think about pricing, there's two components, I think, being left out of the equation.
但你知道,當我們考慮定價時,我認為有兩個組成部分被排除在外。
I mean, the first is over the last two years, we've seen a 400 basis point increase in loan rates. (inaudible) \on $50,000, ATP that's $2,000 a year for your ownership cycle, it's $8,000 headwind to your consumer.
我的意思是,首先是在過去兩年中,我們看到貸款利率增加了 400 個基點。 (聽不清楚) \ 50,000 美元,ATP 意味著您的所有權週期每年 2,000 美元,這對您的消費者來說是 8,000 美元的阻力。
And you have dealers earning twice as much as they did in 2019 now, so they have in our $2,000 to kind of potentially throw into the yard to the equation to help get deals done.
現在經銷商的收入是 2019 年的兩倍,因此他們有我們的 2,000 美元可能會投入到等式中以幫助完成交易。
So there's now as rates come down and dealers get more realistic about what they can earn on your vehicles, you there are a lot of room to support pricing where it is -- and potentially (inaudible) forbid as rates come down, pricing to go up, right.
因此,現在隨著費率下降,經銷商對他們可以從你的車輛上賺到的錢變得更加現實,你有很大的空間來支持當前的定價——而且隨著費率下降,定價可能會(聽不清楚)禁止。
I think everybody kind of has this view is it's going to fade, but you might be much more resilient and stronger over the next year or two, then people are expecting.
我認為每個人都認為它會消退,但在未來一兩年裡你可能會比人們預期的更有彈性和更強大。
What's your take on sort of those two points?
您對這兩點有何看法?
Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks, John.
謝謝,約翰。
What I would say is it starts with the portfolio.
我想說的是,它從投資組合開始。
When you look at the refreshes that we've done and what we brought to market and what's still to come with the midsize SUVs, I think the team has done really an incredible job, and that that's actually held up quite well, even as we went to higher interest rates.
當你看到我們所做的更新、我們推向市場的產品以及中型 SUV 的未來時,我認為團隊確實做了一項令人難以置信的工作,而且實際上保持得很好,即使我們走向更高的利率。
And despite the fact that payments have gone up, we've seen demand hold pretty steady across the board.
儘管付款量增加,但我們看到需求全面保持穩定。
So we want to maintain some level of consistency, which is -- make sure that we approach the plans of the forward calendar with a little bit of conservatism on the pricing side, versus what we're seeing in the market today because that it's really all about continuity on cash flow and margin performance.
因此,我們希望保持一定程度的一致性,即確保我們在定價方面以一點保守的方式處理遠期日曆的計劃,而不是我們今天在市場上看到的情況,因為它確實一切都與現金流和利潤表現的連續性有關。
So I think it's a strategy that's worked well for us.
所以我認為這是一個對我們很有效的策略。
Like I said, despite the fact that we've taken that assumption down in the back half of the year from where we started the year, and we're still not seeing that in the month of July today.
就像我說的,儘管事實上我們已經在今年下半年從年初開始取消了這一假設,但在今天的 7 月我們仍然沒有看到這一點。
So I think this helps us be more nimble, be more agile and look around corners.
所以我認為這有助於我們變得更加敏捷、更加敏捷並且能夠環顧四周。
But our commercial team is doing a really good job of go-to-market strategies and really looking at it on a month by month product by product basis to drive our optimal margin performance.
但我們的商業團隊在進入市場策略方面做得非常好,並且確實逐月逐月研究產品,以推動我們的最佳利潤表現。
John Murphy - Analyst
John Murphy - Analyst
So we really should think about this as a planning assumption as opposed to an actual forecast.
因此,我們確實應該將其視為計劃假設,而不是實際預測。
Is that a fair statement?
這是一個公平的說法嗎?
Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, that's the way we have consistently referred to it.
是的,這就是我們一貫提到的方式。
John Murphy - Analyst
John Murphy - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And then just one follow-up.
然後只有一個後續行動。
Your cap (inaudible) when look at your tables, I always ask about this is 108% in North America, two shifts straight time.
當你查看你的表格時,你的上限(聽不清楚),我總是問北美是 108%,連續兩班制。
God forbid, we saw an actual increase in unit volume on you're up 5% to 10% a year for you and maybe the industry alike.
但願上帝保佑,我們看到單位銷售的實際增長每年為 5% 到 10%,也許整個行業也是如此。
What kind of costs would flow back into the system?
什麼樣的成本會回流到系統中?
Would we be thinking about mostly variable costs on the I mean, obviously with that high cap, you might think that you might have a little bit of fixed cost that could come in as well but I'm just curious how you would think about that cost flow as if we got a real volume lift of up 5% to 10%?
我們是否會考慮主要的可變成本,我的意思是,顯然在這麼高的上限下,您可能會認為您可能也會有一點固定成本,但我只是好奇您會如何看待這一點成本流就好像我們的實際銷量提升了5% 到10% 一樣?
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Well, first of all, we'd be very excited about that because I think it's a huge opportunity.
嗯,首先,我們對此感到非常興奮,因為我認為這是一個巨大的機會。
And I think for the most the bulk of it, it would be variable cost increases as we've got the equipment, adding shifts, increasing line rates.
我認為,對於大部分成本來說,隨著我們擁有設備、增加班次、提高生產線速度,這將是變動成本的增加。
So and it's I was funded to take volume up, and I think we're well prepared to do that and it would mostly be variable.
因此,我獲得了資金來提高銷量,我認為我們已經做好了充分的準備,而且這主要是可變的。
John Murphy - Analyst
John Murphy - Analyst
Super helpful.
超有幫助。
Thank you so much, guys.
十分感謝大家。
Operator
Operator
Chris McNally, Evercore.
克里斯·麥克納利,Evercore。
Chris McNally - Analyst
Chris McNally - Analyst
Thanks so much team.
非常感謝團隊。
Great quarter.
很棒的季度。
For maybe just a question around the variance that maybe remains in the guide.
也許只是關於指南中可能保留的差異的問題。
So has been discussed and just high level, the pricing has gone from 2% assumption for the full year to sort of your 0.75% given your second half comments, if I just run that pricing variance of 50 basis points for this just the second half, up $400 million our variance.
因此,已經討論過了,而且只是高水平的,考慮到你下半年的評論,定價已經從全年的 2% 假設變成了 0.75%,如果我只是在下半年計算 50 個基點的定價差異,我們的差異增加了4 億美元。
Maybe you can go through some of the other aspects that are sort of left to be determined because it seems like there's a lot in your control.
也許你可以討論一些其他有待確定的方面,因為看起來你可以控制很多事情。
So maybe your China and any of the cost reductions, just how we can sort of fill that other $1.5 billion in the variance in the guide?
那麼,也許您的中國以及任何成本削減,我們如何填補指南中另外 15 億美元的差異?
Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah.
是的。
So thanks for that, Chris, and thanks for the kind words.
所以謝謝你,克里斯,也謝謝你的客氣話。
What I would say is that if you look at from where we started, the year was about probably $2 billion of trend line improvement from our initial guide.
我想說的是,如果你從我們開始的地方看,這一年趨勢線比我們最初的指南改善了約 20 億美元。
We've taken our guidance up now by $1 billion.
我們現在已將指導意見上調了 10 億美元。
The other point I would say is largely China underperformance we started the year thinking that we were going to be similar to last year's profitability.
我要說的另一個重點主要是中國的表現不佳,我們年初時認為我們的獲利能力將與去年相似。
Obviously, we've taken that down.
顯然,我們已經把它拿下來了。
And then the second big area is really on EV volumes.
第二大領域其實是電動車銷量。
So despite the fact that they come in at a lower contribution, we were projecting on the higher volumes of variable profit contribution in the third quarter and that has now been kicked out a little bit on the lower volumes.
因此,儘管事實上它們的貢獻較低,但我們預計第三季的可變利潤貢獻量會更高,而現在已經在較低的量上被剔除了一點。
That explains really the bulk of it.
這確實解釋了大部分內容。
But I'm really pleased that we've been able to take our guidance up now in two consecutive quarters and we're a $4 billion at the midpoint ahead of where we were at the beginning of the year.
但我真的很高興我們現在能夠連續兩個季度提高我們的指導,並且我們的收入比年初的中位數高出 40 億美元。
Chris McNally - Analyst
Chris McNally - Analyst
That's a great summary, because that was my second question is so okay, so pricing from being year $2 billion better, $1 billion is now reflected in the guide.
這是一個很好的總結,因為這是我的第二個問題,所以定價從當年 20 億美元更好,現在 10 億美元反映在指南中。
And the $1 billion offset is a combination of some China variance, it's underperforming probably second half is a little bit left to be determined and also EV volumes.
10 億美元的抵銷額是一些中國差異的組合,其表現不佳,可能下半年還有待確定,還有電動車銷售。
Is that a fair summary?
這是一個公平的總結嗎?
Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes.
是的。
Chris McNally - Analyst
Chris McNally - Analyst
Perfect.
完美的。
Thanks so much, team.
非常感謝,團隊。
Operator
Operator
Mark Delaney, Goldman Sachs.
馬克·德萊尼,高盛。
Mark Delaney - Analyst
Mark Delaney - Analyst
Yes, good morning and congratulations on the strong results and thanks for taking my question.
是的,早安,祝賀我們取得了優異的成績,並感謝您提出我的問題。
You mentioned watching EV inventory levels closely and using demand as a guide for how fast you ramp up EV production to the extent GM does less than the 200,000 EV wholesales this you're currently contemplating, could the company still be variable profit positive in the fourth quarter, perhaps with incremental cost actions?
您提到,密切注意電動車庫存水平,並以需求為指導,以多快的速度提高電動車產量,直至通用汽車的電動車批發量低於您目前正在考慮的200,000 輛電動車批發量,該公司在第四季是否仍能實現可變利潤正值季度,也許會採取增量成本行動?
Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Hey, Mark.
嘿,馬克。
Thanks for the kind words, and I appreciate the question.
謝謝你的客氣話,我很感激這個問題。
I would say that when we started the year, we were looking at getting to variable profit in the low 200,000 range.
我想說,當我們年初的時候,我們的目標是獲得 20 萬美元以下的可變利潤。
We're obviously continuing to do the work that we need to do on the lower volumes.
顯然,我們正在繼續做我們需要在較低數量上做的工作。
And we see that.
我們看到了這一點。
I mean, to the extent that we see volumes going lower, we obviously have to adjust to that.
我的意思是,如果我們看到交易量下降,我們顯然必須對此進行調整。
But we're really focused on the long term here, and that is the trend and trajectory of scaling up in the business, we're already seeing meaningful cost improvements as we ramp up the battery cell plants and really come off some of the kind of imported cells and things that we were doing last year.
但我們真正關注的是長期目標,這就是業務規模擴大的趨勢和軌跡,隨著我們擴大電池工廠並真正實現一些目標,我們已經看到了有意義的成本改善進口細胞和我們去年所做的事情。
So this is a journey for us, and it's one that we're absolutely focused on doing so we don't want to end up in a situation where we're just producing to a target and the demand isn't there.
因此,這對我們來說是一段旅程,也是我們絕對專注的旅程,因此我們不希望最終陷入這樣一種情況:我們只是按照目標生產,但需求卻不存在。
We've seen what happens when you do that and you've got residual value implications, which stay with you for a long, long time.
我們已經看到了當你這樣做時會發生什麼,並且你會得到剩餘價值影響,這些影響會伴隨你很長一段時間。
So that balance is what's most important to us and continuing along the journey.
因此,這種平衡對我們來說最重要,並且在整個旅程中繼續保持。
So we're focused right now on that 200 to 250 and believe that we can hit the variable profit positive in the fourth quarter, and we're going to continue to work towards that as best we can.
因此,我們現在的重點是 200 到 250,並相信我們可以在第四季度實現可變利潤正值,我們將繼續盡最大努力實現這一目標。
Mark Delaney - Analyst
Mark Delaney - Analyst
Understood.
明白了。
Thanks.
謝謝。
My other question was on GM Financial, looks like you slightly raised the EBIT outlook for the year to $2.75 billion to $3 billion.
我的另一個問題是關於通用汽車金融公司的,看來你們將今年的息稅前利潤前景略微上調至 27.5 億美元至 30 億美元。
And I think as of the first quarter, you are thinking in $2.5 billion to $3 billion maybe talk about what's driving the slight uptick in GM Financial, more broadly on the financial market in auto finance, we've heard and read about some rising delinquencies for the industry more generally maybe speak about GM Financial and any change in delinquency rates?
我認為截至第一季度,您可能會考慮25 億至30 億美元,也許會談論推動通用汽車金融(更廣泛的汽車金融金融市場)小幅上升的因素,我們聽說並讀到了一些拖欠率上升的情況對於整個行業來說,也許可以談談通用汽車金融公司以及拖欠率的任何變化?
Thank you.
謝謝。
Dan Berce - President and CEO of GM Financial
Dan Berce - President and CEO of GM Financial
Yeah, hi, this is Dan Berce.
是的,嗨,我是丹貝爾斯。
So on the first part of your question, with respect to the uptick in the lower end of the guide.
因此,關於您問題的第一部分,關於指南下端的上升。
We obviously had a strong first half at GMF earning $1.6 billion of which puts us in a really good position to hit in that range of [275] to
顯然,我們上半年在 GMF 上取得了強勁的業績,賺取了 16 億美元,這使我們處於非常有利的位置,可以達到 [275] 到
[300].
[300]。
The couple of factors that would be headwinds in the second half or that we're going to have less lease terminations in the second half, along with the expectations for from mildly lower used car pricing.
有幾個因素將成為下半年的不利因素,或下半年我們將減少租賃終止,以及對二手車價格略有下降的預期。
And then the second factor in the second half is that our credit typically seasonally in the second half is weaker than the first half.
下半年的第二個因素是我們的信貸通常在下半年季節性弱於上半年。
So our provisions will be higher.
所以我們的規定會更高。
So that's really the reason for on a slightly weaker second half.
所以這確實是下半場稍弱的原因。
Now with respect to your question about credit trends.
現在關於你關於信用趨勢的問題。
First of all, baseline, our portfolio at GMF is 75%-plus prime and we're seeing very, very steady performance for the prime customer.
首先,我們在 GMF 的投資組合的基準線是 75% 以上的主要客戶,我們看到主要客戶的表現非常非常穩定。
They still have excess savings, they -- obviously, the job market is strong and so that piece of our portfolio has been really stable.
他們仍然有多餘的儲蓄,顯然,就業市場強勁,因此我們投資組合的這一部分非常穩定。
Now the less than prime like other lenders, we've seen a bit of deterioration, mostly from vintages in '22 and '23.
現在,像其他貸款機構一樣,我們已經看到了一些不太好的貸款,主要是來自 22 和 23 年的年份。
And more recently, we've seen stabilization, albeit at slightly higher levels, but we've seen stabilization in that part of our portfolio.
最近,我們看到了穩定,儘管水平略高,但我們看到了我們投資組合的這一部分的穩定。
Mark Delaney - Analyst
Mark Delaney - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Tom Narayan, RBC.
湯姆·納拉揚,加拿大皇家銀行。
Tom Narayan - Analyst
Tom Narayan - Analyst
Thanks for taking the questions.
感謝您提出問題。
My first one is on level two plus subscription take rate.
我的第一個是二級加訂閱率。
Tesla is seen with many would describe as somewhat disappointing, I think single digit percentage take rates of its FSD product, BMW told us last week, they're seeing 30% plus take rates on its five series in California and its pricing is a lot lower than Tesla's.
特斯拉被許多人描述為有點令人失望,我認為其FSD 產品的採用率是個位數,寶馬上週告訴我們,他們在加州看到其5 系列產品的採用率超過30%,而且它的定價很高比特斯拉還低。
Just curious if you've given your take rates on Super Cruise or if you had any commentary on what you think drives demand there, there's a saying that safety is boring, perhaps it was all about pricing.
只是好奇您是否給出了超級郵輪的價格,或者您對推動需求的因素有何評論,有一種說法是安全很無聊,也許這一切都與定價有關。
Just love to hear any thoughts there?
只是想聽聽有什麼想法嗎?
And then I have a follow up.
然後我有一個後續行動。
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Our Super Cruise ramp has been slow because of some of the chip availability that we have.
由於我們擁有一些晶片,我們的 Super Cruise 爬坡速度一直很慢。
We're now expected by year end this year to have at Super Cruise on 22 nameplates and in some cases on uptrend, for instance, on the new Traverse, it's standard.
現在預計到今年年底,Super Cruise 將會有 22 個銘牌,並且在某些情況下處於上升趨勢,例如,在新的 Traverse 上,它是標準配置。
So I don't have the specific take rates because it's part of it is, it comes with the vehicle and some of it, it can be something they can subscribe to.
所以我沒有具體的接受率,因為它是其中的一部分,它隨車輛一起提供,其中一些,它可以是他們可以訂閱的東西。
So we can follow up with you after the fact on that.
因此,我們可以在事後與您聯繫。
Dan Berce - President and CEO of GM Financial
Dan Berce - President and CEO of GM Financial
And Tom, I'll just add.
湯姆,我補充一下。
It's just it's a little bit too early because we're coming through that trial period and significant volumes.
只是現在有點太早了,因為我們正在經歷試用期和大量的銷售量。
So we should have a lot more color, I would say over the next 12 to 18 months as we start to see people lapse out of their three year period and getting to that.
所以我們應該有更多的色彩,我想說的是,在接下來的 12 到 18 個月裡,當我們開始看到人們走出三年期並達到那個目標時。
But it's obviously something that we're watching and the commercial teams all over.
但這顯然是我們和整個商業團隊正在關注的事情。
Tom Narayan - Analyst
Tom Narayan - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thanks.
謝謝。
And then as a quick follow-up actually to Joe's approved question.
然後作為對喬批准的問題的快速跟進。
I understand that the pivot here to bolt, but I remember the decision to do origin was largely an economic one.
我知道這裡的支點是螺栓,但我記得做起源的決定主要是出於經濟考量。
So just curious if you're still in tandem to the new approach still going to continue maybe lobbying for this purpose-built vehicle to regulators?
所以只是好奇您是否仍然支持新方法,是否仍會繼續向監管機構遊說這種專用車輛?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, we definitely will be looking for -- yeah, frankly, more than just what the vehicle is, but to have the right regulatory environment to release this technology that we believe definitely improved safety of miles traveled for everyone.
是的,我們肯定會尋找 - 是的,坦白說,不僅僅是車輛是什麼,而是擁有合適的監管環境來發布這項技術,我們相信這肯定會提高每個人行駛里程的安全性。
So we're going to continue to work hard to continue to allow autonomous technology for rideshare and from a [PAP] perspective to continue.
因此,我們將繼續努力,從 [PAP] 的角度繼續允許自動駕駛技術用於共乘。
And frankly, leverage -- switching to the Bolt at this time because of the regulatory environment actually improves our purchase costs.
坦白說,槓桿——因為監管環境而此時轉向Bolt實際上提高了我們的採購成本。
So we think it's a win-win, but we're in the early phases of what rideshare is going to be and how we're going to leverage autonomous technology.
因此,我們認為這是雙贏的,但我們正處於共享出行以及我們將如何利用自動駕駛技術的早期階段。
I do think in the future, there's going to be opportunity for a vehicle like the origin.
我確實認為在未來,像origin這樣的車輛將有機會出現。
And so that remains open to us at the right time.
因此,這仍然在適當的時間向我們開放。
This was about getting cost down at cruise and being able to scale and without regulatory uncertainty.
這是為了降低郵輪成本並能夠在沒有監管不確定性的情況下擴大規模。
Tom Narayan - Analyst
Tom Narayan - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
James Picariello, BNP Paribas.
詹姆斯·皮卡里洛,法國巴黎銀行。
James Picariello - Analyst
James Picariello - Analyst
Hi, good morning, everyone.
嗨,大家早安。
To follow up on China challenges are expected for the second half.
預計下半年將繼續應對中國挑戰。
But just to put a finer point on this is the expectation for JV losses to sustain in the third and fourth quarters?
但更具體地說,合資企業預計第三季和第四季將持續虧損?
And then just high level, what are the pillars here to GM's China strategy going forward?
那麼高層,通用汽車中國戰略未來的支柱是什麼?
What should turn this around as we consider next year and beyond?
當我們考慮明年及以後的情況時,應該採取什麼措施來扭轉這一局面?
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Well, I think critical is we've got to get the our structural cost rate to the new realities of this market.
嗯,我認為關鍵是我們必須讓我們的結構成本率適應這個市場的新現實。
And so we are fully recognizing that the ongoing challenges that we have.
因此,我們充分認識到我們所面臨的持續挑戰。
And so we're going to -- there's really a three-pronged strategy.
所以我們要--確實有一個三管齊下的策略。
We got to execute the plan to align production to the current retail reality, get rid of the existing higher inventories and then aggressively reduce the structural costs.
我們必須執行計劃,使生產符合當前的零售現實,擺脫現有的較高庫存,然後積極降低結構成本。
From SGMW perspective, we actually maintained a stable market share as this operation is very important and also supports some of the global emerging markets through exports for a General Motors perspective.
從上汽通用五菱的角度來看,我們實際上保持了穩定的市場份額,因為這項業務非常重要,而且從通用汽車的角度來看,還透過出口支持了一些全球新興市場。
And then as we've talked about in the past and Paul mentioned it.
正如我們過去討論過的,保羅也提到過。
We have the premium channel.
我們有付費頻道。
We believe we have an opportunity to export with very low capital investment are very capital efficient, I should say, to take some of our most iconic products and export them into the market at the top end.
我們相信,我們有機會以非常低的資本投資進行出口,資本效率非常高,我應該說,將我們一些最具標誌性的產品出口到高端市場。
So I think when we look at the strength of the Buick brand and the China brand, there's a path forward in this market that we do believe over the course of the midterm is going to resume to growth.
因此,我認為,當我們審視別克品牌和中國品牌的實力時,這個市場有一條前進的道路,我們相信在中期過程中將恢復成長。
So that is our plan on it.
這就是我們的計劃。
And I'm not going to predict where we're going to be exactly in second quarter.
我不會準確預測第二季我們的情況。
I will just tell you we're working aggressively to improve that situation and leverage what we have in GMW and also the opportunity that we'll have with the premium channel.
我只想告訴你,我們正在積極努力改善這種情況,並利用我們在 GMW 中擁有的資源以及我們在高級頻道中獲得的機會。
James Picariello - Analyst
James Picariello - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
That's helpful.
這很有幫助。
And then just with respect to the second half versus first half can you provide additional color on the $1 billion in additional costs that were referenced for the second half?
然後,就下半年與上半年相比,您能否對下半年提到的 10 億美元額外成本提供更多資訊?
What's driving that outlay?
是什麼推動了這項支出?
And has this number changed versus your prior guidance?
這個數字與您先前的指導相比是否發生了變化?
Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, James.
是的,詹姆斯。
So the biggest piece of it, as we highlighted, is about $400 million of it marketing spend, which is seasonally weighted towards the second half of the year in conjunction with a number of the launches that we have.
因此,正如我們所強調的那樣,其中最大的一部分是約 4 億美元的 IT 行銷支出,該支出與我們推出的一些產品一起按季節加權到下半年。
We knew that going into the year.
我們知道這一點進入今年。
The other big pieces of it, I would say there are some commodities and EV costs retimed.
我想說的是,其中的其他重要部分是一些商品和電動車成本的重新調整。
So these are a little bit new just as we've kind of pivoted on our assumptions going forward.
因此,這些有點新,正如我們在某種程度上以我們的假設為基礎的那樣。
The commodities look, we're going to respond to that and we always do.
大宗商品看起來,我們將對此做出回應,而且我們總是這樣做。
But those are the three biggest categories I would say on the second half.
但這些是我在下半年要說的三個最大的類別。
And the team is working through it and feel good about our performance so far.
團隊正在努力解決這個問題,並對我們迄今為止的表現感到滿意。
James Picariello - Analyst
James Picariello - Analyst
Appreciate it.
欣賞它。
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
I'd now like to turn the call over to Mary Barra for her closing comments.
我現在想將電話轉給瑪麗·巴拉(Mary Barra),請她發表結束語。
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you very much, and I hope everybody can see that from our results and our new higher guidance, we are making the most of every opportunity we have in ICE and in EV and leveraging our core strengths.
非常感謝,我希望每個人都能從我們的結果和新的更高指導中看到,我們正在充分利用我們在 ICE 和 EV 領域的每一個機會,並利用我們的核心優勢。
We're being flexible and opportunistic, but also importantly, we're being very disciplined, a better cruise is moving forward once again, and there's significant opportunity there.
我們很靈活,也很機會主義,但同樣重要的是,我們非常有紀律,更好的巡航正在再次向前推進,那裡有很大的機會。
We're going to continue to return significant capital to our owners as we move forward and the opportunity presents itself.
隨著我們的前進和機會的出現,我們將繼續向我們的所有者返還大量資本。
If you look back, this was a great first half and we're going to build on it and continue to improve the business, and we have more opportunity to continue to do that to drive our future success.
如果你回顧過去,這是一個偉大的上半年,我們將在此基礎上繼續改進業務,我們有更多機會繼續這樣做,以推動我們未來的成功。
We're going to expand on all these topics at our Investor Day in Spring Hill, Tennessee.
我們將在田納西州斯普林希爾舉行的投資者日上詳細討論所有這些主題。
And so I hope you will attend.
所以我希望你能參加。
You're going to have a chance to drive our newest ICE and EV products and see close up our cell manufacturing expertise and our manufacturing flexibility.
您將有機會駕駛我們最新的內燃機和電動車產品,並近距離了解我們的電池製造專業知識和製造靈活性。
We think it's compelling and we look forward to having that session with all of you.
我們認為這很引人注目,我們期待與大家一起參加這次會議。
So thank you very much for joining.
非常感謝您的加入。
And I hope you have a great day.
我希望您度過愉快的一天。
Operator
Operator
Thank you.
謝謝。
That concludes the conference call for today.
今天的電話會議到此結束。
Thank you for joining, and you may disconnect.
感謝您的加入,您可以斷開連線。