英國石油 (BP) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to BP's third quarter 2023 results presentation.

大家早安，歡迎觀看 BP 2023 年第三季業績發表會。

I'm here today with Murray Auchincloss, Chief Executive Officer; and Kate Thomson, Chief Financial Officer.

今天我和執行長 Murray Auchincloss 一起來到這裡。和財務長凱特·湯姆森。

Before we begin today, let me draw your attention to our cautionary statement. During today's presentation, we will make forward-looking statements that refer to our estimates, plans and expectations. Actual results and outcomes could differ materially due to the factors we note on this slide and in our U.K. and SEC filings. Please refer to our annual report, stock exchange announcement and SEC filings for more details. These documents are available on our website.

在今天開始之前，讓我提請您注意我們的警告聲明。在今天的演講中，我們將做出涉及我們的估計、計劃和期望的前瞻性陳述。由於我們在這張投影片以及我們在英國和美國證券交易委員會的文件中指出的因素，實際結果和結果可能會存在重大差異。更多詳情請參閱我們的年度報告、證券交易所公告和美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 備案文件。這些文件可在我們的網站上找到。

Let me now hand over to Murray.

現在讓我把時間交給穆雷。

Thanks, Craig. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us.

謝謝，克雷格。大家，早安。感謝您加入我們。

We hosted our investor update in Denver a few weeks ago, focused on our oil, gas and biogas businesses, including a site visit to BPX' Permian operation. We had 3 core messages that I want to reemphasize today. First, our strategy, transforming to an integrated energy company, is unchanged. Second, we are focused on delivering our strategy safely quarter-on-quarter to meet our 2025 targets and 2030 aims. And third, we are focused on growing long-term shareholder value. We continue to expect to grow EBITDA to 2025 and aim to keep growing to 2030, all while delivering compelling shareholder distributions.

幾週前，我們在丹佛舉辦了投資者更新會，重點關注我們的石油、天然氣和沼氣業務，包括對 BPX 的二疊紀業務進行實地考察。今天我想再次強調我們的 3 個核心訊息。首先，我們轉型為綜合能源公司的策略並沒有改變。其次，我們專注於按季度安全地實施我們的策略，以實現我們的 2025 年目標和 2030 年目標。第三，我們專注於增加長期股東價值。我們繼續期望 EBITDA 成長至 2025 年，並​​目標維持成長至 2030 年，同時提供引人注目的股東分配。

Earlier this month, we said we expect 2030 adjusted EBITDA aims from resilient hydrocarbons and group will be around $2 billion higher than BP's previous targets, to a range of $41 billion to $44 billion and $53 billion to $58 billion, respectively. Underpinning this increase, we presented what we believe is a high-quality, distinctive oil and gas portfolio; and a leading delivery model enabling efficient execution. We expect to grow EBITDA from oil and gas to 2025, sustained it at that level through 2030, with the capacity to sustain well into the next decade. And we believe there's more to come. This slide summarizes the key message from the event. And if you haven't seen the materials, we encourage you to take a look on bp.com.

本月早些時候，我們表示預計2030 年彈性碳氫化合物和集團的調整後EBITDA 目標將比BP 先前的目標高出約20 億美元，分別達到410 億至440 億美元和530 億至580 億美元。為了支撐這一成長，我們推出了我們認為是高品質、獨特的石油和天然氣產品組合；領先的交付模式可實現高效執行。我們預計到 2025 年，石油和天然氣業務的 EBITDA 將會成長，並在 2030 年之前保持在這一水平，並有能力維持到下一個十年。我們相信還會有更多的事情發生。這張投影片總結了活動的關鍵資訊。如果您還沒有看過這些資料，我們鼓勵您造訪 bp.com。

Turning then to our third quarter 2023 results. For the third quarter, we delivered strong operational performance with upstream plant reliability and refining availability at around 96% year-to-date. This came on top of 3% volume growth year-to-date and a 6% decline in unit production costs. Underlying earnings were $3.3 billion. And we delivered robust operating cash flow of $8.7 billion, including a working capital release of $2 billion.

接下來談談我們 2023 年第三季的業績。第三季度，我們實現了強勁的營運業績，上游工廠可靠性和煉油可用性年初至今約為 96%。今年迄今銷量成長了 3%，單位生產成本下降了 6%。基本收益為 33 億美元。我們實現了 87 億美元的強勁營運現金流，其中包括 20 億美元的營運資金釋放。

We are executing against our disciplined financial frame. Today, we have announced a further $1.5 billion share buyback. This reflects the confidence in our performance and the outlook for cash flow.

我們正在按照嚴格的財務框架執行任務。今天，我們宣布進一步回購 15 億美元的股票。這反映了對我們業績和現金流前景的信心。

Turning to strategic delivery, where we see continued momentum. In oil and gas, we started up the Tangguh expansion project in Indonesia, our third major project this year. In August, we started up Bingo, BPX' second major processing facility in the Permian, doubling our oil and gas processing capacity in the basin. And we received regulatory approval for Murlach, a 2-well oil and gas redevelopment of the Marnock-Skua field in the North Sea.

談到戰略交付，我們看到了持續的動力。在石油和天然氣領域，我們啟動了今年第三個重大計畫—印尼東固擴建計畫。 8 月，我們啟動了 BPX 在二疊紀的第二個主要加工設施 Bingo，使該盆地的石油和天然氣加工能力增加了一倍。我們也獲得了監管機構對 Murlach 專案的批准，該專案是北海 Marnock-Skua 油田的 2 口油氣再開發專案。

In LNG, we signed a long-term agreement with OMV to supply up to 1 million tonnes per annum of LNG for 10 years from 2026. And we secured our third long-term LNG offtake contract from Woodfibre, where we are the sole offtaker of almost 2 million tonnes per annum from 2027.

在液化天然氣方面，我們與OMV 簽署了一項長期協議，從2026 年起的10 年內每年供應最多100 萬噸液化天然氣。我們還從Woodfibre 獲得了第三份長期液化天然氣承購合同，我們是Woodfibre的唯一承購者。從 2027 年開始，每年產量近 200 萬噸。

Turning to our transition growth engines. In bioenergy, we are scaling up our biogas business Archaea Energy, with the first Archaea modular design renewable natural gas plant now online in Medora, Indiana. This underpins our confidence in our expansion plans going forward. In EV charging, we continued to accelerate our EV charging ambition across key markets. We have announced an agreement with Tesla for the future purchase of $100 million of ultrafast chargers in the U.S. This is part of our approved $500 million EV charging infrastructure investment in the U.S. previously announced. In the U.K., bp pulse, together with partners, launched the country's largest public EV charging hub at the NEC campus in Birmingham, enabling 180 EVs to charge simultaneously.

轉向我們的轉型成長引擎。在生物能源領域，我們正在擴大我們的沼氣業務 Archaea Energy，第一個 Archaea 模組化設計再生天然氣工廠現已在印第安納州梅多拉上線。這增強了我們對未來擴張計劃的信心。在電動車充電方面，我們持續加快在關鍵市場的電動車充電目標。我們宣布與特斯拉達成協議，未來將在美國購買 1 億美元的超快充電器。這是我們先前宣布的在美國批准的 5 億美元電動車充電基礎設施投資的一部分。在英國，bp pulse 與合作夥伴一起在伯明罕 NEC 園區推出了全國最大的公共電動車充電中心，可同時為 180 輛電動車充電。

In convenience, TravelCenters of America continues to integrate well. And in the first 9 months of 2023, excluding TA, we delivered around 8% year-on-year growth in convenience gross margin. And we extended our successful strategic convenience agreement with Auchan in Poland, with plans to add more than 100 stores to our network by the end of 2025. In hydrogen, the Midwest Alliance for Clean Hydrogen, of which BP is a member, announced it has been selected by the U.S. Department of Energy to develop a regional clean hydrogen hub in the U.S. Midwest. And finally, in renewables and power, we have increased our pipeline to 43.9 gigawatts with the addition of 4 gigawatts from 2 offshore projects in Germany recently awarded.

在便利性方面，美國旅遊中心繼續良好地整合。 2023 年前 9 個月，不包括 TA，我們的便利毛利率年增約 8%。我們還延長了與波蘭歐尚的成功戰略便利協議，計劃到 2025 年底在我們的網絡中增加 100 多家商店。在氫方面，中西部清潔氫聯盟（BP 是該聯盟的成員）宣布，它已經被美國能源部選中在美國中西部開發區域清潔氫中心。最後，在再生能源和電力領域，我們已將管道裝置容量增加至 43.9 吉瓦，其中最近授予的德國 2 個海上項目增加了 4 吉瓦裝置容量。

Now let me hand over to Kate to take you through our third quarter results in more detail.

現在讓我請凱特向您詳細介紹我們的第三季業績。

Thanks, Murray. And good morning, everyone. It was great to meet a number of you in Denver recently.

謝謝，穆雷。大家早安。很高興最近在丹佛見到你們中的一些人。

For the third quarter, we reported an underlying replacement cost profit of $3.3 billion compared to $2.6 billion last quarter.

我們報告第三季的基本重置成本利潤為 33 億美元，而上季為 26 億美元。

Compared to the second quarter, in gas & low carbon energy, the result reflects a weak gas marketing and trading result following the exceptional performance in the first half of 2023. In oil production & operations, the result reflects higher oil and gas realizations despite the impact of price lags on Gulf of Mexico and UAE realizations and higher production. And in customers & products, the products result reflects a higher realized refining margin, a lower level of turnaround activity and a very strong oil trading result. In our customers business, we continue to show strong momentum in convenience and aviation, benefiting from seasonally higher fuel volumes partially offset by lower margins given the rising cost of supply.

與第二季相比，在天然氣和低碳能源方面，該結果反映出繼2023 年上半年的出色表現之後，天然氣行銷和貿易結果疲軟。在石油生產和營運方面，該結果反映出石油和天然氣的實現量較高，儘管價格落後對墨西哥灣和阿聯酋的實現和更高產量的影響。在客戶和產品中，產品結果反映了更高的已實現煉油利潤、較低水準的周轉活動以及非常強勁的石油交易結果。在我們的客戶業務中，我們在便利和航空方面繼續表現出強勁的勢頭，受益於季節性增加的燃油量，但由於供應成本上升而導致利潤率下降，部分抵消了這一影響。

Turning to cash flow and the balance sheet. Operating cash flow was $8.7 billion in the third quarter. This includes a working capital release of $2 billion after adjusting for inventory holding gains and fair value accounting effects and other adjusting items. Capital expenditure was $3.6 billion, including inorganic expenditure, net of adjustments.

轉向現金流和資產負債表。第三季營運現金流為 87 億美元。這包括在調整庫存持有收益、公允價值會計影響和其他調整項目後釋放 20 億美元的營運資金。資本支出為 36 億美元，包括扣除調整後的無機支出。

During the quarter, we repurchased $2 billion of shares. The $1.5 billion program announced with second quarter 2023 results was completed on the 27th of October.

本季度，我們回購了價值 20 億美元的股票。隨 2023 年第二季業績公佈的 15 億美元計畫已於 10 月 27 日完成。

Surplus cash flow was $3.1 billion, and net debt reduced by $1.3 billion to $22.3 billion.

盈餘現金流為 31 億美元，淨債務減少 13 億美元，達到 223 億美元。

Our disciplined financial frame remains unchanged with a focus on 5 key priorities. A resilient dividend remains our first priority. We have today announced a dividend of $0.0727 per ordinary share for the third quarter. We remain committed to maintaining a strong investment-grade credit rating and continue to target progress within the A range. We aren't targeting a AA rating.

我們嚴格的財務框架保持不變，並專注於 5 個關鍵優先事項。有彈性的股息仍然是我們的首要任務。我們今天宣布第三季每股普通股股息為 0.0727 美元。我們仍然致力於維持強勁的投資等級信用評級，並繼續以 A 級信用評級為目標。我們的目標不是 AA 評級。

We are investing with discipline in our transition growth engines; and in our oil, gas and refining businesses. Our capital expenditure guidance for 2023, including inorganics, is now expected to be around $16 billion. And we're committed to allocating 60% of 2023 surplus cash flow to buybacks, subject to maintaining a strong investment-grade credit rating.

我們正在對轉型成長引擎進行嚴格投資；以及我們的石油、天然氣和煉油業務。我們 2023 年的資本支出指引（包括無機物）目前預計約為 160 億美元。我們致力於將 2023 年盈餘現金流的 60% 用於回購，前提是維持強勁的投資等級信用評等。

Finally, we intend to execute a buyback of $1.5 billion prior to reporting fourth quarter results. This reflects the confidence we have in our performance and the outlook for cash flow.

最後，我們打算在報告第四季業績之前執行 15 億美元的回購。這反映了我們對業績和現金流前景的信心。

I'll now hand back to Murray for his closing remarks.

現在我將請莫瑞作結束語。

Thanks, Kate. Let me wrap up.

謝謝，凱特。讓我總結一下。

We are growing the value of BP, investing in today's oil and gas system and investing in our transition growth engines. We are firmly focused on delivering our strategy safely with discipline and, in doing so, quarter-on-quarter, to meet our 2025 targets and 2030 aims, all in service of growing long-term shareholder value.

我們正在提高 BP 的價值，投資於當今的石油和天然氣系統，並投資於我們的轉型成長引擎。我們堅定地專注於安全、嚴格地實施我們的策略，並在此過程中逐季度實現我們的 2025 年目標和 2030 年目標，所有這些都是為了不斷增長的長期股東價值。

With that, Kate and I will be happy to take your questions.

凱特和我將很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Okay, great. Thank you again, everybody, for listening. We'll turn to questions now. (Operator Instructions) We'll turn to the first question from Henri Patricot at UBS.

好的，太好了。再次感謝大家的聆聽。我們現在開始提問。 （操作員說明）我們將轉向瑞銀集團亨利·帕特里克提出的第一個問題。

A couple of questions, please. To the first one, on results. You mentioned a weak gas trading contribution. Could you expand on what was driving the weakness, whether there's any implications in terms of the performance that we should expect in the fourth quarter? And then secondly, I would like to come back on the U.S. offshore wind project. Obviously you put through an impairment in the quarter. Could you comment on perhaps the [next steps that you expect]? And any further risk, financial risk, for yourselves with regards to this project should it not go ahead ultimately?

請教幾個問題。第一個，關於結果。您提到天然氣交易貢獻疲軟。您能否詳細說明導致疲軟的原因，這是否對我們預期的第四季業績產生任何影響？其次，我想回到美國離岸風電計畫。顯然，您在本季遭受了減損。您能否評論一下[您期望的後續步驟]？如果這個專案最終不繼續進行的話，你們自己還會面臨任何進一步的風險，財務風險嗎？

Great. Thanks, Henri. I'll take the first question and I'll let Kate take the second one. Just a -- maybe a reminder on the quarter: We had a pretty strong operating performance across the business. The highlights, you'll see, 96% plant reliability across the upstream and downstream, production growth 3% year-on-year. I think that's leading the sector. Unit costs down 6% in the upstream, again a very strong performance; and cash delivery, well, I think, in line with expectation. So obviously the difficult bit was the weakness in gas trading, as you mentioned. If you think back to the year, in the first quarter, we had an exceptional performance. In the second quarter, we had exceptional performance. And then in the third quarter, we're calling it weak. That was really due to lack of structure in the market. So there was a little bit of volatility in the prompt, but the actual structure of the market, as you looked out across multiple months, wasn't moving around. The reason for that obviously is the gas inventories in Europe and the United States were relatively full, so that said, it didn't make sense to put a lot of risk on to the gas side. Instead, we reallocated risk to the oil side. And you saw that oil had a very strong result. As far as the outlook to the next quarter, without guiding, all I'd say is you need to look at structure. As we head into 4Q, I think gas storage is at 98% full inside Europe. It's at average levels, I think, inside the United States, so volatility will tell. If there are outages, if they're weather, that will tell whether or not there's much structure inside the gas market. And then on the refined product side, I think gasoline and diesel inventories are quite high right now, so it's lacking a bit of structure right now as well. All of this can change in November and December based on outages or volatility, so that's the gas side. Kate, over to you on wind.

偉大的。謝謝，亨利。我回答第一個問題，然後請凱特回答第二個問題。只是一個——也許是本季的一個提醒：我們整個業務的營運表現相當強勁。亮點，你會看到，上下游工廠可靠性達到96%，產量年增3%。我認為這在該行業處於領先地位。上游單位成本下降6%，再次表現強勁；我認為現金交付符合預期。正如您所提到的，顯然困難的是天然氣交易的弱點。如果你回顧這一年，第一季我們的表現非常出色。第二季度，我們的表現非常出色。然後在第三季度，我們稱之為疲軟。這實際上是由於市場缺乏結構所造成的。因此，提示中存在一點波動，但當您觀察多個月時，市場的實際結構並沒有改變。原因顯然是歐洲和美國的天然氣庫存相對充足，因此將太大的風險放在天然氣方面是沒有意義的。相反，我們將風險重新分配給石油方面。你看到石油產生了非常強勁的結果。至於下一季的前景，在沒有指導的情況下，我只想說你需要看看結構。當我們進入第四季時，我認為歐洲境內的天然氣儲存已滿 98%。我認為，它處於美國國內的平均水平，因此波動性會說明一切。如果出現停電，如果是天氣原因，這將表明天然氣市場內部是否有太多結構。然後在精煉產品方面，我認為現在汽油和柴油庫存相當高，所以現在也缺乏一些結構。所有這一切都可能在 11 月和 12 月因停電或波動而發生變化，這就是天然氣方面。凱特，乘風向你而來。

Yes. Thanks, Murray. So you'll be aware that, back in June, we requested a renegotiation of our power purchase agreements with New York. That was rejected in October, and as a consequence of that, our accountants have had a look at our fair value of our assets. And as you're aware, in this quarter, we have taken a $540 million pretax impairment on that. Looking forward, well, we'll need to see how circumstances evolve and continue to run our typical processes. We'll work with our partners closely on the way forward. As you'd imagine us to say that those decisions will be based on value, we need to see those projects continue to meet a 6% to 8% unlevered return, which is what we've been clear on with regard to offshore wind and our requirements, so let's see how it evolves.

是的。謝謝，穆雷。所以你會知道，早在六月，我們就要求與紐約重新談判我們的購電協議。該提議於 10 月被拒絕，因此，我們的會計師檢查了我們資產的公允價值。如您所知，在本季度，我們為此提列了 5.4 億美元的稅前減損。展望未來，我們需要了解情況如何演變並繼續運行我們的典型流程。我們將與合作夥伴在前進的道路上密切合作。正如您想像的那樣，我們會說這些決策將基於價值，我們需要看到這些項目繼續實現 6% 至 8% 的無槓桿回報，這就是我們在海上風電和我們的要求，所以讓我們看看它是如何演變的。

Thanks, Kate. Thanks, Murray. We'll take the next question from Irene Himona, please.

謝謝，凱特。謝謝，穆雷。我們將回答艾琳希莫納 (Irene Himona) 提出的下一個問題。

My first question, on working capital, please. How much of the $2 billion release that you had in Q3 corresponds to the $5 billion working capital unwinding which you had mentioned before relating to LNG? And then secondly, going back, Murray, to your comments on BPX, I'm just curious. In light of the 2 huge deals by Exxon, Chevron in the past 2 weeks, do you feel that perhaps that business maybe lacks a little bit the scale to compete efficiently in this apparently newly developing landscape? Would a potential step-up via a JV help to grow that scale?

我的第一個問題是關於營運資金的。第三季釋放的 20 億美元中有多少相當於您之前提到的與液化天然氣相關的 50 億美元營運資金釋放？其次，穆雷，回到你對 BPX 的評論，我只是很好奇。鑑於埃克森美孚和雪佛龍在過去兩週內完成了兩筆巨額交易，您是否認為該業務可能缺乏在這個明顯新發展的領域中有效競爭的規模？透過合資企業進行潛在的升級是否有助於擴大這一規模？

Great. Thanks, Irene. I'll take the second question and I'll ask Kate to start with the working capital answer, please. Kate?

偉大的。謝謝，艾琳。我將回答第二個問題，請凱特從營運資金的答案開始。凱特？

Sure. Thanks, Irene. So in the third quarter, you can see we have a release of $2 billion on working capital. Much of that was associated with delivery of LNG cargoes. As you note, Murray has previously said we had around $5 billion of working capital to unwind over that as a consequence. We're expecting around $3 billion to continue to unwind over the next 3 quarters, but as you know, look, working capital fluctuates quarter-on-quarter. It's important to look through the year. And if you look year-to-date, we're pretty flat. We've got a $679 million release year-to-date, so I'd just encourage you to keep looking through the quarter on the year on working capital and about $3 billion left on the LNG cargoes.

當然。謝謝，艾琳。所以在第三季度，你可以看到我們釋放了 20 億美元的營運資金。其中大部分與液化天然氣貨物的交付有關。正如您所注意到的，莫瑞先前曾表示，我們有大約 50 億美元的營運資金來解決這個問題。我們預計未來 3 個季度將繼續減少約 30 億美元，但如您所知，營運資本會逐季度波動。回顧這一年很重要。如果你看看今年迄今為止，我們的表現相當平淡。今年迄今為止，我們已經釋放了 6.79 億美元，因此我鼓勵您繼續關注本季的營運資金以及液化天然氣貨物的剩餘約 30 億美元。

Thanks, Kate. And then Irene, on BPX and the U.S., as we laid out in Denver, we've got a great upstream portfolio of 36 billion barrels of total resource; 18 billion in the plan right now, economic at our thresholds, to be developed over the next couple decades. We have the capacity to grow earnings through 2025 and then maintain at that level through 2030 and beyond, so we feel we've got a very high-quality upstream portfolio. Inside the United States in particular, we have a great portfolio as well. Between the GOM and BPX, it was producing about 600 kbd in 2022; and we aim to produce about 1 million a day by the end of the decade. That's 7% compound annual growth and it will make up 50% of BP's production by the end of the decade, so we feel we have great resource positions already, 8 billion of barrels of resource in the Paleogene to develop, 7 billion barrels of resource in BPX to develop. And we don't really feel we need more acreage. We will consider countercyclical moves, so as we look around the world, in other places, if we see countercyclical opportunities, we might pursue those. Some of you will remember that we did that in Australia a while back on a countercyclical opportunity, but we're very happy with our position in the U.S. and we just need to organically develop that now. Thank you for your question, Irene.

謝謝，凱特。然後艾琳，關於 BPX 和美國，正如我們在丹佛所闡述的那樣，我們擁有總資源量為 360 億桶的龐大上游投資組合；目前計劃中有 180 億美元，經濟處於我們的門檻，將在未來幾十年內開發。我們有能力在 2025 年之前實現盈利增長，然後在 2030 年及以後保持在該水平，因此我們認為我們擁有非常高品質的上游投資組合。特別是在美國境內，我們也擁有出色的產品組合。 2022 年，GOM 和 BPX 的產量約為 600 kbd；我們的目標是到本世紀末每天生產約 100 萬個。複合年增長率為 7%，到本十年末將佔 BP 產量的 50%，因此我們認為我們已經擁有良好的資源狀況，古近紀有 80 億桶資源可供開發，70 億桶資源在BPX中進行開發。我們並不真的覺得我們需要更多的面積。我們會考慮反週期舉措，因此當我們環顧世界其他地方時，如果我們看到反週期機會，我們可能會尋求這些機會。你們中的一些人可能還記得，我們​​不久前在澳洲利用反週期機會做到了這一點，但我們對我們在美國的地位非常滿意，我們現在只需要有機地發展這一點。謝謝你的提問，艾琳。

Okay, thanks, Irene. We'll take the next question from Os Clint at Bernstein.

好的，謝謝，艾琳。我們將回答伯恩斯坦的奧斯克林特提出的下一個問題。

Just on the CapEx reduction down to the low end of the expected range. Where does that $1 billion or $2 billion reduction come from? I guess some phasing perhaps, but perhaps if you could just break it out. And linked to that, there's only $1 billion of divestments insofar this year. I think you're still expecting $2 billion to $3 billion, so what are we still expecting to see come in towards the end of the year, please? And then secondly, just on gas again, you have picked up some more acreage actually offshore Israel despite what's happening. Maybe just talk about that, those plans and also perhaps closing this NewMed deal, in terms of building up a hub, a gas hub, in the eastern side of Mediterranean.

只是將資本支出削減至預期範圍的低端。減少的 10 億美元或 20 億美元從何而來？我想也許會分階段進行，但也許如果你能把它打破的話。與此相關的是，今年到目前為止，撤資金額僅 10 億美元。我認為您仍然期望 20 億至 30 億美元，那麼我們仍然期望在今年年底看到什麼？其次，就天然氣而言，儘管發生了這些事情，你實際上已經在以色列近海獲得了更多的土地。也許只是談論這個，那些計劃，也許還可能完成這項 NewMed 交易，即在地中海東側建立一個樞紐，一個天然氣樞​​紐。

Great. Thanks, Os. Let me start with Israel. And first, let me say we're deeply saddened by the tragic events in the Middle East and the devastating human impact it's having. And we're just hoping for a sustained and peaceful resolution. On NewMed, we'll update the market as appropriate, but for now there is no new update. You're correct: On July 16, we applied for acreage in Israel. SOCAR is the operator. NewMed is a partner, and BP. And that was obviously awarded over the weekend. We've been in the Eastern Mediterranean for a long time. We'll see how we go. It is exploration acreage, so we'll just have to see how that goes, Os. If I turn to the divestment question for Kate, please.

偉大的。謝謝，奧斯。讓我從以色列開始。首先，我要說的是，我們對中東發生的悲劇及其對人類造成的毀滅性影響深感悲痛。我們只是希望能夠找到持久、和平的解決方案。在NewMed上，我們會酌情更新市場，但目前還沒有新的更新。您是對的：7 月 16 日，我們申請了以色列的土地。 SOCAR 是營運商。 NewMed 是合作夥伴，還有 BP。這顯然是在周末授予的。我們在東地中海已經待了很久了。我們拭目以待吧。這是勘探面積，所以我們只需要看看情況如何，Os。請讓我談談凱特的撤資問題。

Yes. So I -- Os, I think we're at about $1.5 billion year-to-date in terms of divestments. We're continuing to guide to $2 billion to $3 billion for the full year. As you know, these ongoing processes aren't entirely within our control, but that's our guidance as we stand here today.

是的。所以我——Os，我認為今年迄今為止我們的撤資金額約為 15 億美元。我們繼續將全年目標定為 20 億至 30 億美元。如您所知，這些正在進行的過程並不完全在我們的控制範圍內，但這是我們今天站在這裡的指導方針。

Great. Thanks, Kate. And on CapEx, Os, I think you'll see a year-to-date number of $11.5 billion spent this year, organics running somewhere around [3.5 to 4] each quarter. And the reason that we're not going to hit the higher end of the range, the $16 billion to $18 billion we guided originally, was that was for space for inorganics. You'll remember, as we set out our long-term frame, we said $14 billion to $18 billion, including organics and inorganics. Gradually, organic capital ramps up as you think about TA. If you think about Archaea, the organic side ramps up, but in '23, '24, '25, we do have capacity to do inorganics, so those inorganics that we were thinking about, we're just going to pass on those for now. So we're estimating $16 billion for the year. Thanks for the questions, Os.

偉大的。謝謝，凱特。在資本支出方面，Os，我認為今年迄今的支出為 115 億美元，有機支出每季約為 [3.5 到 4]。我們之所以不打算達到該範圍的高端，即我們最初指導的 160 億至 180 億美元，是因為這是為了無機物的空間。您會記得，當我們制定長期框架時，我們說過 140 億至 180 億美元，包括有機和無機。當你想到 TA 時，有機資本就會逐漸增加。如果你想到古細菌，有機方面會增加，但在 23 年、24 年、25 年，我們確實有能力生產無機物，所以我們正在考慮的那些無機物，我們將把它們傳遞給現在。因此，我們預計今年的營收為 160 億美元。謝謝你的提問，奧斯。

Thanks, Os. We will take the next question from Biraj Borkhataria from RBC.

謝謝，奧斯。我們將回答 RBC 的 Biraj Borkhataria 的下一個問題。

I wanted to ask on the debt number. So you're sitting on, your definition, $22 billion of net debt. I guess, if you're a rating agency, you look at it with the various other items added back, but if we take your number, is there an absolute level of net debt you want to get to before you next review your payout ratio, to that $22 billion? And then the second question is on Tortue. I know there's been various issues at that project. I noticed in the Denver slides Phase 2 is now in the "beyond the '30" bucket, so could you talk about that project, key next deliverables and how you're thinking about the development overall from here?

我想問一下債務號碼。所以按照你的定義，你坐擁 220 億美元的淨債務。我想，如果您是一家評級機構，您會在添加回來的各種其他項目的情況下查看它，但如果我們獲取您的數字，在您下次審查支付率之前，您是否希望達到淨債務的絕對水平，那220億美元？第二個問題是關於Tortue的。我知道該項目有各種問題。我在丹佛幻燈片中註意到，第二階段現在處於「30 年後」階段，所以您能談談該專案、接下來的關鍵交付成果以及您如何考慮這裡的整體開發嗎？

Great. I'll take Tortue. And Kate, if you can take the financial frame question, as you're now keeper of the financial frame. Hard one for me to let go, but Kate will do a fantastic job on it. As far as Tortue goes, on Phase 1 itself, we're at about 90% complete now. The offshore breakwater and facilities are complete and handed over to operations; the FLNG vote -- boat, we anticipate leaving Singapore by the end of the year. The FPSO has left China and Singapore and it's on its way to West Africa. And obviously we've replaced the contractor on the subsea systems, so we're hopeful that, that starts up in 1Q. As far as Phase 2 goes, we really need to focus right now on getting Phase 1 and up -- Phase 1 up. That is the principal focus we have. As we do that, we'll see how the productivity is of the resource base. And that will inform Phase 2, where we have to continue through the design we're in to optimizing that space and commercial negotiations with the host governments and partners. So a ways to go yet on Phase 2, Biraj. Thanks for your question.

偉大的。我會帶上托爾圖。凱特，如果你能回答財務框架問題，因為你現在是財務框架的守護者。這對我來說很難放手，但凱特會做得非常出色。就 Tortue 而言，就第一階段本身而言，我們現在已完成約 90%。海上防波堤及設施竣工並移交營運； FLNG 投票船，我們預計今年底離開新加坡。 FPSO已離開中國和新加坡，正在前往西非的途中。顯然，我們已經更換了海底系統的承包商，因此我們希望在第一季啟動。就第二階段而言，我們現在確實需要專注於第一階段及以上階段——第一階段。這是我們的主要關注點。當我們這樣做時，我們將看到資源基礎的生產力如何。這將為第二階段提供訊息，我們必須繼續進行我們正在進行的設計，以優化該空間以及與東道國政府和合作夥伴的商業談判。所以第二階段還有很長的路要走，Biraj。謝謝你的提問。

And shall I take the financial frame question? So thanks, Biraj. Good question, yes, so let me step back from this a little bit. Yes, we've reduced net debt again this quarter, down to $22 billion. If I think back to when I was Treasurer in 2020, we've come down from a high of $51 billion, so tremendous progress on that. It's important to remember the order of prioritization, I think, in the financial frame. We've been incredibly clear on that. And the strengthening of the balance sheet and in particular targeting progress within the A range remains the second priority. Look. I think the financial frame is doing its job right now. It works really well in high prices and low prices. We like the order of prioritization. And for 2023, we're going to continue to allocate 40% of surplus to the balance sheet. And I think that's good for us for now. Thank you.

我應該回答財務框架問題嗎？謝謝，比拉吉。好問題，是的，所以讓我稍微退一步討論這個問題。是的，本季我們再次減少了淨債務，降至 220 億美元。如果我回想起 2020 年我擔任財務主管時，我們已經從 510 億美元的高點回落，在這方面取得了巨大的進步。我認為，記住財務框架中的優先順序很重要。我們對此非常明確。加強資產負債表，特別是在 A 範圍內取得進展仍然是第二要務。看。我認為財務框架現在正在發揮作用。它在高價和低價下都非常有效。我們喜歡優先順序。到2023年，我們將繼續將40%的盈餘分配到資產負債表上。我認為目前這對我們有好處。謝謝。

Great. Thanks, Biraj. We'll take the next question from Michele Della Vigna at Goldman's.

偉大的。謝謝，比拉傑。我們將回答高盛公司 Michele Della Vigna 的下一個問題。

Two quick questions. On the price lags that you mentioned in the quarter, I was wondering if you could quantify the impact it had, especially in your E&P division. And then secondly, going back for a moment to the U.S. offshore wind, I was wondering if you could disclose your committed spend for the coming years in terms of pre-agreed supplies or pre-booking of transport capacity.

兩個簡單的問題。關於您在本季度提到的價格滯後，我想知道您是否可以量化其影響，特別是在您的勘探與生產部門。其次，回到美國離岸風電，我想知道您是否可以透露您未來幾年在預先商定的供應或預先預訂運輸能力方面的承諾支出。

Yes, great. I'll take the second one, and Kate can take the price lag question. I think on the offshore wind commitments there are cancellation options inside these things, but as you can imagine, it's quite commercially sensitive, so we don't disclose those things. My apologies, Michele. And then Kate, over to you on price lag.

對，很好。我將回答第二個問題，凱特可以回答價格滯後問題。我認為關於離岸風電的承諾，這些事情裡面有取消選項，但正如你可以想像的，這是相當商業敏感的，所以我們不會披露這些事情。我很抱歉，米歇爾。然後凱特，關於價格滯後的問題交給你了。

Yes. So as you're aware, we have price lag impacts coming through volumes both from Gulf of Mexico and UAE. I think, from memory, we were around about 800 million impact on the quarter, but if that's wrong, we can correct that after. I'm sure (inaudible) can help me.

是的。如您所知，墨西哥灣和阿聯酋的貨量對我們產生了價格滯後影響。我認為，根據記憶，我們對本季的影響約為 8 億，但如果這是錯誤的，我們可以在之後修正。我確信（聽不清楚）可以幫助我。

Okay, great. We'll take the next question from Henry Tarr, please, at Berenberg. Thank you, Henry.

好的，太好了。我們將回答貝倫貝格亨利·塔爾提出的下一個問題。謝謝你，亨利。

Just to come back on the offshore wind in -- offshore the U.S. There's the impairment this quarter. What's left on the books for those U.S. projects? And then I guess I know obviously there's going to be discussions around what happens from here, but I guess there's a new RFP out. Do you think it's likely that you'll be sort of bidding into that? And then perhaps if you could just comment on the sort of overall cost situation for renewables as you see it at the moment.

回到美國近海的離岸風電，本季出現了減損。這些美國計畫還剩下什麼？然後我想我顯然知道將會圍繞著這裡發生的事情進行討論，但我想有一個新的 RFP 出來了。你認為你可能會參與其中嗎？也許您可以評論一下您目前所看到的可再生能源的整體成本狀況。

Great. I'll take those questions. We're not disclosing what's left on the books. We think that's commercially sensitive, so we won't be doing that. As far as path forward on this, I think, as Kate mentioned, there was a 10-point plan put out by New York state. We're working to understand that plan. It's just come out, so we're working with our partners, Equinor, to understand what that 10-point plan means. And we'll think about, with Equinor, how we do that. It includes the right to -- I think it includes the right to invalidate your previous PPA and solicit for a new PPA, so work to do and we'll update the market in due course on how that's going. As far as how are other places working, I think Europe, Asia is working fine on PPAs for solar as we see them through Lightsource bp. The U.S. is a bit sticky right now with rising interest rates. And power prices aren't quite converging with those, but by and large, across Europe and Asia, we see those as working out.

偉大的。我會回答這些問題。我們不會透露帳本上還剩​​下什麼。我們認為這具有商業敏感性，因此我們不會這樣做。至於前進的道路，我認為，正如凱特所提到的，紐約州提出了一個十點計劃。我們正在努力了解該計劃。該計劃剛剛發布，因此我們正在與我們的合作夥伴 Equinor 合作，以了解該 10 點計劃的含義。我們將與 Equinor 一起思考如何做到這一點。它包括權利——我認為它包括使您之前的購電協議無效並徵求新的購電協議的權利，因此請努力去做，我們將在適當的時候向市場通報進展。至於其他地方的運作情況，我認為歐洲和亞洲在太陽能購電協議方面進展順利，正如我們透過 Lightsource bp 所看到的。美國目前的利率上升有點棘手。電價與這些價格並不太一致，但總的來說，在歐洲和亞洲，我們認為這些價格是有效的。

We'll take the next question from Lydia Rainforth at Barclays.

我們將回答巴克萊銀行 Lydia Rainforth 提出的下一個問題。

Two questions, if I could. The first one, on upstream volumes. The guide is flat for the fourth quarter versus the third quarter, but given the startup of Bingo, given the startup of -- in Indonesia, I mean, I'm surprised it's not a little bit higher, so is there -- what am I missing on that bit? And then secondly, Murray, just this is a bigger picture question, but are you happy with where the results are for this quarter? Obviously you've had decent results in terms of operating performance. Costs are down in the upstream, but you are seeing inflation in the downstream. There's the volatility in the gas trading [side], so I'm just wondering. Is this where you think the performance of BP should be in this oil price environment?

如果可以的話，有兩個問題。第一個是關於上游磁碟區。第四季的指南與第三季度持平，但考慮到 Bingo 的啟動，考慮到印尼的啟動，我的意思是，我很驚訝它沒有高一點點，那麼有什麼嗎？我錯過了那一點嗎？其次，穆雷，這是一個更大的問題，但您對本季的結果感到滿意嗎？顯然，您在營運績效方面取得了不錯的成績。上游的成本下降了，但下游卻出現了通貨膨脹。天然氣交易存在波動性，所以我只是想知道。您認為在目前的油價環境下，BP 的表現應該是這樣的嗎？

Great. I'll let Kate take the upstream volumes. On results, Lydia, as I've stated earlier, the operating results are awfully good. And it mirrors what we talked to you about in Denver, so the fact that the plants keep running at 96% is amazing. The fact that volume growth is up 3% year-on-year is fantastic. Costs down, again I think fantastic results at the same time that Tier 1 safety events are off almost 50% year-on-year. So I think the overall operating capacity of the business is running very, very strong. 2 places that are challenging right now: retail margins, so these are fuel margins, whether it be on diesel or gasoline. We see the market is oversupplied as we entered September, October, yes, but as we all know, that can change quickly. There is not much excess capacity inside refining around the world. And any weather event or any outage will create a change in the margins and a change in volatility, so I think let's watch the space. It does feel like a more volatile world than necessarily we've seen through September and October, but that's obviously something that we don't control. As far as trading, obviously we've had a very, very good year, 1Q gas trading exceptional, 2Q trading exceptional, 3Q lack of structure. There's not an awful lot you can do when there's 0 structure inside gas trading, so we will see. Weather will determine it. Outages will determine it. And you know that our business is poised to take -- to do well when volatility occurs, so overall I think the business is performing quite well. And on the quarter, most of the miss can be ascribed to gas, but of course, we pivoted our risk to the oil side, so I think maybe we got a bit ahead of ourselves and expectations around 3Q. Let's see. So I hope that helps, Lydia. And we'll pass over to Kate on volume.

偉大的。我會讓凱特拿走上游的捲。關於結果，莉迪亞，正如我之前所說，營運結果非常好。這反映了我們在丹佛與您討論的情況，因此工廠保持 96% 的運行率這一事實令人驚嘆。銷量年增 3% 的事實真是太棒了。成本下降，我再次認為，在 1 級安全事件同比減少近 50% 的同時，結果也很出色。所以我認為企業整體的營運能力是非常非常強的。目前有兩個面臨挑戰的地方：零售利潤，所以這些是燃料利潤，無論是柴油還是汽油。當我們進入九月、十月時，我們看到市場供過於求，是的，但眾所周知，這種情況可能很快就會改變。全球煉油業並沒有太多過剩產能。任何天氣事件或任何停電都會造成利潤率和波動性的變化，所以我認為讓我們專注於這個空間。確實感覺這個世界比我們在九月和十月所看到的更加不穩定，但這顯然是我們無法控制的。就交易而言，顯然我們度過了非常非常好的一年，第一季天然氣交易異常，第二季交易異常，第三季缺乏結構。當天然氣交易中存在 0 結構時，你能做的事情並不多，所以我們拭目以待。天氣會決定它。停電將決定它。而且您知道，當發生波動時，我們的業務將表現良好，因此總體而言，我認為業務表現相當不錯。在本季度，大部分的失誤都可以歸因於天然氣，但當然，我們將風險轉向了石油方面，所以我認為也許我們在第三季度左右有點超出了自己和預期。讓我們來看看。所以我希望這會有所幫助，莉迪亞。我們將把音量交給凱特。

Yes. Thanks. Lydia, thanks for the question, yes. So I think Murray has been super clear in terms of our kit. It's working really well. We're very pleased with the level of reliability across the portfolio and the delivery that we've got in terms of our overall production performance. On major projects, we've got 3 out of 4 online. The fourth is due to start up imminently. And they're ramping up nicely. In terms of 4Q itself, it's just typical seasonal maintenance that we're seeing coming through. That coupled with some PSA entitlement impacts, that's really what you're seeing that's offsetting the strong performance of -- across the portfolio, to see us broadly flat overall for the fourth quarter.

是的。謝謝。莉迪亞，謝謝你的提問，是的。所以我認為穆雷對我們的裝備非常清楚。它運作得非常好。我們對整個產品組合的可靠性水平以及我們在整體生產性能方面所獲得的交付感到非常滿意。在重大專案上，我們四分之三是在線的。第四個項目即將啟動。而且他們的發展勢頭良好。就第四季本身而言，這只是我們看到的典型季節性維護。再加上一些 PSA 權益影響，這確實是您所看到的，它抵消了整個投資組合的強勁表現，使我們第四季度的整體表現基本持平。

Thanks, Kate. Okay, we'll take the next question from Christyan Malek at JPMorgan.

謝謝，凱特。好的，我們將回答摩根大通的 Christyan Malek 提出的下一個問題。

So a couple of questions from me. First is just on the buyback maths. I mean, if I run the buyback flat at $1.5 billion into Q4, that's a total of $6.25 billion and, based on the 60% payout, implies you're going to need to deliver full year surplus over $10 billion, so Q4 is going to have to be amazing. And I'm just trying to reconcile that given what you've provided for into Q4, so can you just help me in case I've missed something? Are you assuming trading is going to do a whole lot better, which I think I kind of wonder about given it's quite volatile [in itself as we've seen]. That's my first question. The second question, please, is I distinctly remember how you said offshore wind was one of your best positions from a returns perspective. And now it's [got a $500 million] pretax offshore wind impairment. My worry is that we're seeing more write-downs (inaudible) portfolio, so what sort of guarantees can you provide that this [isn't a] moving target, essentially lower?

我有幾個問題。首先是回購數學。我的意思是，如果我在第四季度以15 億美元的價格進行回購，那麼總計62.5 億美元，並且基於60% 的支出，意味著您將需要提供超過100 億美元的全年盈餘，因此第四季將必須是驚人的。我只是想根據您在第四季度中提供的內容來協調這一點，所以如果我錯過了什麼，您能幫我嗎？你是否認為交易會做得更好，我想我有點想知道，因為它非常不穩定（正如我們所看到的那樣）。這是我的第一個問題。第二個問題是，我清楚記得您所說的從回報角度來看，離岸風電是您的最佳職位之一。現在它[獲得了 5 億美元]稅前離岸風電減值。我擔心的是，我們看到更多的資產減記（聽不清楚）投資組合，那麼你能提供什麼樣的保證來確保這[不是]移動目標，本質上是更低的？

And sorry for the final question, but just I had to ask this (inaudible) to do on this. There's quite a lot of M&A speculation around BP. Of course, I'm not going to ask you to comment, but I actually want to know what your thoughts are on the U.S. mega deals recently and whether there is an industrial logic for mega deals here in the U.K.

對最後一個問題感到抱歉，但我不得不問這個（聽不清楚）來解決這個問題。圍繞 BP 的併購猜測頗多。當然，我不會要求你發表評論，但我其實想知道你對最近美國的大筆交易有何看法，以及英國的大筆交易是否有產業邏輯。

Okay, great. I'll ask Kate to tackle the surplus question. As far as offshore wind, Christyan, well, you were with us in Denver. I don't think I said what you quoted. If you remember what I talked about on returns hierarchy, I talked about that biofuels were fantastic. Convenience and electrification was fantastic. Third call on capital was the upstream, and then hydrogen and offshore wind. And in offshore wind, we're really focused on integration, so it's about taking the electrons in the U.K.; taking the electrons in Germany; and providing those into the rest of our businesses, so into refineries, into fast charging with fleets, into hydrogen plants and into trading relationships we have with others. That -- on a stand-alone basis, those would get you 6% to 8% unlevered returns. Of course, if you start to create the integration value with that, the returns go up an awful lot more, so I think the way I'd think about it: As time has progressed, we've focused much more on the integrated opportunities that we see in Europe. And that's why you didn't see us bid in many of the offshore wind rounds in the United States over the recent quarters. So that's how we think about offshore wind.

好的，太好了。我會請凱特解決剩餘問題。至於離岸風電，克里斯蒂安，你和我們一起在丹佛。我想我沒有說過你引用的內容。如果您還記得我談到的回報等級，我談到生物燃料非常棒。便利性和電氣化非常棒。第三個資本需求是上游，然後是氫能和離岸風電。在離岸風電方面，我們真正關注的是整合，所以這是關於在英國獲取電子；在德國獲取電子；並將這些提供給我們的其他業務，例如煉油廠、車隊快速充電、氫氣製造廠以及我們與其他公司的貿易關係。就獨立而言，這些將為您帶來 6% 至 8% 的無槓桿回報。當然，如果你開始以此創造整合價值，回報會增加很多，所以我認為我的想法是：隨著時間的推移，我們更加關注整合機會我們在歐洲看到的。這就是為什麼你沒有看到我們在最近幾季對美國的許多離岸風電回合進行投標。這就是我們對離岸風電的看法。

I think, on M&A and will we see M&A activity, of course, I can't really comment on that. For our part, we're very pleased with how the company is performing. Our share price multiples are trading equivalent with our European peers. We have closed the gap to some of the U.S. peers by 1/3 over the past 12 months. And as we continue to grow EBITDA per share, I think, at a 12% ratio as we continue with our distribution framework -- I think it's double digit, which is at the top end of the sector. I think you'll see us continue to close that share price gap, so we're really focused on organically driving the shareholder value for shareholders. So that's that M&A is really not on our minds, if I'm honest. And then over to Kate on surplus.

我認為，關於併購以及我們是否會看到併購活動，當然，我無法對此發表評論。就我們而言，我們對公司的表現非常滿意。我們的股價倍數與歐洲同業相當。過去 12 個月，我們與一些美國同行的差距縮小了 1/3。我認為，隨著我們繼續採用我們的分配框架，每股 EBITDA 將以 12% 的比率增長——我認為這是兩位數，處於該行業的頂端。我認為您會看到我們繼續縮小股價差距，因此我們真正專注於有機地為股東提高股東價值。所以說實話，我們並沒有考慮併購。然後剩餘的交給凱特。

Thanks, Murray. So yes, you're right. Our rule of thumb works really well. So the $4 billion at 60%, adjust that for price and capital. So we've got about $82 year-to-date average price. And CapEx, we're saying, is going to be around $16 billion for the year, so I think, if you do the maths on that, we're pretty much bang on that $1.5 billion. In terms of so what does that imply for 4Q, I think we feel pretty good about 4Q. Our operational momentum is there. We've talked about that a number of times already this morning. We've still got LNG cargoes that are going to unwind over the next 3 quarters. Oil price [feels supported] at the moment. There's potential for volatility in gas refining margins. Let's see on that, but it's always going to be a consideration, at the end of the quarter, in terms of where the Board takes its position. It will use its judgment. It will look forwards. It will look back over surplus year-to-date, share buybacks year-to-date; and form a view based on a range of factors at that point in time, but in terms of 4Q cash flow, yes, we feel pretty confident on that right now.

謝謝，穆雷。所以是的，你是對的。我們的經驗法則非常有效。因此，40 億美元佔 60%，根據價格和資本進行調整。因此，今年迄今的平均價格約為 82 美元。我們說，今年的資本支出將約為 160 億美元，所以我認為，如果你對此進行數學計算，我們將在這 15 億美元上取得巨大成功。就這對第四季度意味著什麼而言，我認為我們對第四季度感覺很好。我們的營運動力就在那裡。今天早上我們已經多次討論過這個問題。我們仍有液化天然氣貨物將在未來三個季度內釋放。目前油價[感覺受到支撐]。天然氣煉制利潤可能會出現波動。讓我們拭目以待，但在季度末，董事會的立場始終會成為一個考慮因素。它會運用它的判斷。它會向前看。它將回顧年初至今的盈餘、年初至今的股票回購；並根據當時的一系列因素形成觀點，但就第四季度現金流而言，是的，我們現在對此非常有信心。

Great, thank you, Kate.

太好了，謝謝你，凱特。

Great. Thanks, Kate. We'll take the next question from Paul Cheng, please, at Scotiabank.

偉大的。謝謝，凱特。我們將回答豐業銀行 Paul Cheng 提出的下一個問題。

[And Murray], I just have to apologize. I want to go back into the offshore wind write-off. More of the question is that what we -- what have we learned from that; and how that, if any, changed the process of your FID on not just the wind -- offshore wind project but also on the alternative energy in general. Second with that, a quick question on the gas and low carbon sequentially, that the earnings dropped about $1 billion. How much of the decline is -- relate to the low carbon side of the business, if any?

[還有穆雷]，我必須道歉。我想回到離岸風電的註銷問題。更重要的問題是我們從中學到了什麼？以及這（如果有的話）如何改變您的 FID 流程，不僅涉及風能——離岸風電項目，而且還涉及一般替代能源。其次，關於天然氣和低碳的一個簡短問題是，收入下降了約 10 億美元。有多少下降與企業的低碳方面有關（如果有的話）？

Great. Learnings in offshore wind and alternative energy, I'll take. And then I'll let Kate take your second question. So I think what I'd say is, back in February, we talked that for offshore wind we were starting to pivot and focus offshore wind on integrated markets. That maybe wasn't what we did back in 2020 with the move in the United States. So I think we do like these integrated markets. We see the chance to make quite handsome returns on them as we move forward. We have our own natural demand for green electrons, which is enormous, especially in places like onshore Europe or the U.K. where there's not enough land for onshore solar or onshore wind. And obviously the taxation structures and the incentive structures are all to drive towards a greening economy, so we see that as the place that we should be doing offshore wind. It provides a natural sync. I think in Germany we've got 4 gigawatts that will be online by 2030. And obviously our demand is higher than that and growing significantly as we move through 2035. And the viewpoint is that we can develop these much cheaper than we can go out and buy a green PPA; making money on supplying it to our refinery, supplying it to our fast charging, supplying it to our trading business, to on trade around; and create an electron flow, much like we've created a gas flow over the past 60 years in our gas value chains. The last thing I'd say, Paul, is this will be capital light. We will firm these things down, probably down to the 25% to 35% level of ownership. We will use debt as appropriate to lever them, and as we do that, the capital deployed into these will be quite light. And we're very, very focused on the electron, as opposed to the capital itself. So I think that's the reflections.

偉大的。我會學習離岸風電和替代能源的知識。然後我會讓凱特回答你的第二個問題。因此，我想我想說的是，早在二月份，我們就談到，對於離岸風電，我們開始將離岸風電的重點轉向綜合市場。這也許不是我們 2020 年在美國搬遷時所做的事情。所以我認為我們確實喜歡這些綜合市場。隨著我們的前進，我們看到了獲得相當可觀回報的機會。我們對綠色電子有著巨大的自然需求，尤其是在歐洲或英國等陸上地區，因為這些地方沒有足夠的土地用於陸上太陽能或陸上風能。顯然，稅收結構和激勵結構都是為了推動綠色經濟，所以我們認為這是我們應該發展離岸風電的地方。它提供了自然的同步。我認為到2030 年，德國將有4 吉瓦的發電量。顯然，我們的需求高於這個數字，隨著2035 年的到來，我們的需求會顯著增長。我們的觀點是，我們開發這些發電量的成本比我們購買的成本低得多。併購買綠色購電協議；透過向我們的煉油廠供應它、向我們的快速充電供應它、向我們的貿易業務供應它、進行貿易來賺錢；並創建電子流，就像過去 60 年來我們在天然氣價值鏈中創建氣流一樣。保羅，我要說的最後一件事是，這將是資本之光。我們將把這些東西固定下來，可能會降低到 25% 到 35% 的所有權水準。我們將酌情使用債務來槓桿化它們，而當我們這樣做時，部署到這些領域的資本將相當輕。我們非常非常關注電子，而不是資本本身。所以我認為這就是反思。

On solar, which would be the other bit that we do. Lightsource bp is doing very well. The returns are very high across the world for the develop-and-flip model that Lightsource bp has engendered. I think the average return, if I remember from -- looking backwards, '22 backwards, the average return on the flip model was around a 16% return, so very, very strong returns that have come out of -- I think it was [80] transactions was the last time I looked at it. So that continues to be a very good model that's working very well across Europe and Asia right now, a little bit sticky in the United States in 2023, but across the rest of the world, it's working very well. We'd expect the U.S. to return to normal in '24, '25. Kate, over to you on gas and low carbon.

關於太陽能，這將是我們所做的另一件事。 Lightsource bp 做得很好。 Lightsource bp 推出的開發翻轉模式在全球獲得了非常高的回報。我認為平均回報率，如果我記得的話，22 年過去，翻轉模型的平均回報率約為 16%，所以非常非常強勁的回報率——我認為是[80] 交易是我最後一次查看它。因此，這仍然是一個非常好的模式，目前在歐洲和亞洲運行良好，到 2023 年在美國會有點粘，但在世界其他地區，它運行得很好。我們預計美國將在 24 年、25 年恢復正常。凱特，關於天然氣和低碳的問題交給你了。

Sure. Thanks, Murray. So Paul, it's a pretty straightforward story in terms of gas and low carbon quarter-on-quarter. It's all about gas trading. You've heard us say that we had exceptional quarters in gas trading in 1Q and in 2Q and then a weak gas trading result in 3Q. There's nothing really material to say about the low carbon results inside the quarter. It's all about the gas trading result.

當然。謝謝，穆雷。所以保羅，就天然氣和低碳季度環比而言，這是一個非常簡單的故事。這都是關於天然氣交易的。您聽說過我們在第一季和第二季的天然氣交易表現出色，但在第三季的天然氣交易結果卻疲軟。關於本季的低碳成果，沒有什麼真正值得說的。一切都與天然氣交易結果有關。

We'll take the next question from Lucas Herrmann at BNP.

我們將回答法國巴黎銀行盧卡斯‧赫爾曼 (Lucas Herrmann) 提出的下一個問題。

A couple, if I might. Can we just push into the customers and products business line a little bit more in terms of progress? I appreciate the marketing margins are under pressure given elevation and input costs. But I guess I'm wondering to what extent margins are also being -- or that business is also being impacted by the fairly aggressive build-out at the present time in EV and other markets. So just some better understanding because the numbers do seem modest, particularly given you've also had the Traveler's acquisition for the full quarter. And secondly, apologies, I just want to go back to another comment that you made in response to a question Lidya asked in Denver, which was essentially where would you expect debt to fit by the end of 2025. And I think your comment was, in essence, low teens. I presume that, that comment was made against your assumptions on where deck would be and the assumptions that you outlie us on what your expectations around price are across period. Sorry to ask something that's already a month old.

如果可以的話，一對。就進度而言，我們能否進一步推進客戶和產品業務線？我意識到，鑑於成本上升和投入成本，行銷利潤面臨壓力。但我想我想知道利潤率在多大程度上也受到了電動車和其他市場目前相當激進的擴建的影響。因此，只是需要更好地理解，因為這些數字看起來確實不大，特別是考慮到您整個季度都收購了 Traveler。其次，抱歉，我只想回到您在回答 Lidya 在丹佛提出的問題時發表的另一條評論，這基本上是您預計到 2025 年底債務將達到多少水平。我認為您的評論是，本質上，低青少年。我認為，該評論是針對您對甲板位置的假設以及您對跨時期價格預期的假設而做出的。很抱歉問一些已經一個月前的事情。

No, that's okay. I guess I'll tackle both of those since it was my quote and Denver, I think the question that Lidya asked was, where would you expect that to be the end of 2025, all else being equal? So that would be whatever the prices were in Denver on a forward strip basis and assuming a 60-40 allocation. So that's how you get to the low teens when you think about that. So those are the assumptions that (inaudible) that question, Lucas, which is I think what you asked. And then on the C&P side, so convenience continues to grow very, very strongly. I think we're at 8% year-on-year growth, which is fantastic, and we continue to see strong progress in that space. EV charging is in line with our external promises. We plan to be breakeven by 2025. We have two nations, China and Germany, which are already breakeven well ahead of expectation and uptake on EV charging is very, very strong. We're at over 10% utilization. Power sales have doubled across the years. So EV is going exceptionally well as well. So those are our growth engines. I think the part of the CNP that's a bit tricky right now are retail margins. So that's on gasoline and diesel. In particular, we've seen an oversupply as we moved into late August, September and now October. And that's why you've seen the gasoline and diesel cracks moving down pretty significantly. Because of our [weighting,] that impacts us a little bit more than the average. Predicting how that will unfold in the future, I find very difficult, if I'm honest. There is not much excess capacity for gasoline and diesel around the world right now, given the refineries that have shut down. So if we have outages, then all of a sudden prices start to increase. So I think we'll -- I think calling that part of the business is as difficult to call as calling the oil price now. But we keep going back and forth between excess supply and shortages based on what's happening with outages across the world. So I think the focus of it really is retail margins because of oversupply have been compressed, and that's what's impacting it and that's what can change very fast though as we move forward. I hope that helped unpack that a little before you, Lucas. Craig, back to you.

不，沒關係。我想我會解決這兩個問題，因為這是我的引言，而丹佛，我認為 Lidya 提出的問題是，在其他條件相同的情況下，您預計 2025 年底會在什麼時候？因此，這將是丹佛在遠期條帶基礎上的價格，並假設 60-40 分配。所以當你想到這一點時，這就是你達到低青少年的方式。所以這些是（聽不清楚）這個問題的假設，盧卡斯，我想這就是你問的問題。然後在 C&P 方面，便利性繼續非常非常強勁地成長。我認為我們的同比增長率為 8%，這非常棒，而且我們繼續看到該領域的強勁進展。電動車充電符合我們的對外承諾。我們計劃在 2025 年達到收支平衡。中國和德國這兩個國家的收支平衡已經遠遠超出預期，電動車充電的普及率非常非常強勁。我們的利用率超過 10%。多年來，電力銷售量翻了一番。因此，電動車的發展也異常順利。這些都是我們的成長引擎。我認為 CNP 目前有點棘手的部分是零售利潤率。這就是汽油和柴油。特別是，進入八月底、九月和現在的十月時，我們發現供應過剩。這就是為什麼你會看到汽油和柴油裂解價大幅下降。由於我們的[權重]，這對我們的影響比平均水平要大一些。老實說，我發現預測未來將如何發展非常困難。鑑於煉油廠已經關閉，目前全球汽油和柴油產能並沒有太多過剩。因此，如果出現停電，價格就會突然開始上漲。所以我認為我們會——我認為調用這部分業務就像現在調用石油價格一樣困難。但根據世界各地停電的情況，我們不斷在供應過剩和短缺之間來回徘徊。所以我認為它的重點確實是零售利潤，因為供應過剩已經被壓縮，這就是影響它的因素，而且隨著我們的前進，這可能會很快改變。盧卡斯，我希望這有助於在你之前解開這個問題。克雷格，回到你身邊。

We'll take the next question from Peter Low at Redburn.

我們將回答 Redburn 的 Peter Low 提出的下一個問題。

Just a couple of follow-ups. You mentioned that your CapEx is towards the lower end of the range because you've passed on some potential inorganic opportunities. I know you can't give any specifics, but can you say perhaps what business areas these were in, i.e., oil and gas or renewables and low carbon? And then just on the quarter itself, production did come in stronger than the flat quarter-on-quarter guide you gave in the last set of results. Can you give any color on what regions supplied positively and why?

只是幾個後續行動。您提到您的資本支出接近該範圍的下限，因為您已經放棄了一些潛在的無機機會。我知道您不能提供任何具體細節，但您能說一下這些業務屬於哪些業務領域，即石油和天然氣或再生能源和低碳嗎？然後就本季本身而言，產量確實強於您在上一組結果中給出的持平季度環比指引值。您能否說明哪些地區提供了積極的供應以及為什麼？

Yes. Great. I'll let Kate answer the production upside in 3Q question. On what inorganic aren't we pursuing? We're focused really on transition, if I'm honest, the transition growth engines and not the oil and gas side at $90 oil. I'm not sure it makes sense for us to pursue, very many oil and gas transactions given the scale of our resource base that we have. So unless it's a fabulous opportunity. So it's really inside the transition growth engines, and it's focused on biofuels convenience elect the highest return business as we see. But we will continue to look at these things over time. As you know, our capital frame is a range of $14 billion to $18 billion through the decade. It includes organics and inorganics. And you can see that in our organic CapEx is running probably around $15 billion right now, somewhere around $14 billion to $15 billion per annum. So that gives you a sense of how we think about inorganic capacity. And if you look backwards, you can see the scale of what we've done through TAA, Archaea, EDF, et cetera, in the past. So I hope that helps, Peter. Kate over to you on production 3Q.

是的。偉大的。我將讓凱特回答第三季問題中的生產優勢。我們不追求什麼無機物？老實說，我們真正關注的是轉型成長引擎，而不是 90 美元油價的石油和天然氣方面。考慮到我們擁有的資源基礎規模，我不確定我們追求大量石油和天然氣交易是否有意義。所以除非這是一個絕佳的機會。因此，它確實位於轉型成長引擎的內部，並且專注於生物燃料便利性，選擇我們所看到的最高回報業務。但隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續關注這些事情。如您所知，這十年我們的資本框架在 140 億至 180 億美元之間。它包括有機物和無機物。您可以看到，我們的有機資本支出目前可能約為 150 億美元，每年約為 140 億至 150 億美元。這樣您就可以了解我們如何看待無機能力。如果你回顧過去，你可以看到我們過去透過 TAA、Archaea、EDF 等所做的事情的規模。所以我希望這會有所幫助，彼得。凱特（Kate）向您介紹第三季的製作。

So production, I think, is doing really well. I'm really pleased with how our assets are performing across the portfolio, in particular, we've had really good performance in Gulf of Mexico. We've got Mad Dog 2, as I said, ramping up nicely. That will continue to ramp through the end of 2023. BPX, as you heard in Denver, is doing incredibly well right now. We've got great performance coming through on BPX, in particular, on the new well delivery. And of course, in the Gulf of Mexico, we've had perhaps acquire a hurricane season than you might otherwise expect. But yes, it's doing really well. We're very pleased with our production performance to date. While I've got the microphone, perhaps I could just correct myself earlier, I talked about lag impacts. And I don't want you to overmodel the phasing of that into 4Q. It's closer to 400, not 800. So (inaudible), if you could just make a note of that, please.

所以我認為生產做得非常好。我對我們的資產在整個投資組合中的表現感到非常滿意，特別是我們在墨西哥灣的表現非常好。正如我所說，我們已經有了《瘋狗 2》，進展順利。到 2023 年底，這一數字將繼續上升。正如您在丹佛聽到的那樣，BPX 目前的表現非常好。我們在 BPX 上取得了出色的表現，特別是在新井交付方面。當然，在墨西哥灣，我們可能已經經歷了一個超出您預期的颶風季節。但是，是的，它做得非常好。我們對迄今為止的生產表現非常滿意。雖然我有麥克風，也許我可以早點糾正自己，我談到了滯後影響。我不希望你過度模型化第四季的階段。它接近 400，而不是 800。因此（聽不清楚），請您記下這一點。

We'll take the next question from Chris Kuplent at Bank of America.

我們將回答美國銀行的 Chris Kuplent 提出的下一個問題。

Yes. One quick follow-up and then one -- I apologize in advance pretty, tough question to ask you, Murray. The first one, you mentioned countercyclical M&A. You're always looking for opportunities. And I think we talked quite a bit about the fact that you haven't spent as much inorganically. How about selling? Where do you see right now opportunities are in this market when you think about countercyclical activities? Where would you be a buyer or a seller across your portfolio without obviously wanting to talk specifics. And secondly, and I appreciate that's slightly cheeky, Murray and (inaudible). I noticed in your slide pack, there is no more interim in front of your titles. So I just wanted to ask whether we need to congratulate you today or when you expect us to have to congratulate you, hopefully, not too far away from now?

是的。一個快速的後續行動，然後是一個——我提前向你道歉，這是一個非常棘手的問題，莫瑞。第一個，你提到逆週期併購。你總是在尋找機會。我想我們已經討論了很多這樣的事實：你沒有花那麼多的無機支出。賣掉怎麼樣？當您考慮反週期活動時，您認為目前市場上的機會在哪裡？如果您顯然不想談論具體細節，那麼您將成為您的投資組合中的哪個買家或賣家。其次，我很欣賞穆雷和（聽不清楚）這有點厚顏無恥。我注意到在你的投影片包中，標題前面不再有臨時內容。所以我只是想問我們是否需要今天祝賀你，或者你希望我們什麼時候祝賀你，希望距離現在不遠？

We're both smiling and laughing at the second question, Chris. We remain interim CEO and interim CFO and the Board is running its process, and the Board will update you in due course. On M&A, so countercyclical, obviously, on the acquisition side, we're focused on transition growth engines. Sometimes, countercyclicals come up on the oil and gas side though. So I mentioned the Australian opportunity that we had a few -- last quarter -- or 2 quarters ago, I think, that's where we got access to a 14 Tcf field for basically free. Those are the kind of things that we'll think about in the oil and gas space when they arise. As far as what we're selling, we've sold an awful lot of oil and gas sets over the past 15 years. Craig will get me right on the running tally, but I think we're over $120 billion of asset sales since 2010. So we have high graded the portfolio materially. We've also dropped. If you go back to, I think, 2008, we've dropped from 20 refineries down to 6 to 7. So we've really gone through heavy high grading over the past. As we look forward about what we'd high grade, obviously, we'd be thinking about lower margin businesses in the upstream or lower margin -- lower margin businesses in the upstream or in the convenience space, the retail fuel space. Where others, if it's late in life, another see more opportunity than we see they've got lower investment hurdles than we see, then we might consider those type of divestments moving forward. But the overall level of divestments these days is pretty low now. We're $2 billion to $3 billion a year is all we're estimating right now, and that's how we think about it moving forward, Chris. Thank you for the cheeky question.

克里斯，我們對第二個問題都笑了。我們仍然擔任臨時執行長和臨時財務官，董事會正在執行其流程，董事會將在適當的時候向您通報最新情況。在併購方面，顯然是反週期的，在收購方面，我們專注於轉型成長引擎。但有時，石油和天然氣方面也會出現反週期因素。所以我提到了澳洲的機會，我們在上個季度或兩個季度前有過一些機會，我想，這就是我們基本上免費獲得 14 Tcf 領域的機會。這些都是我們在石油和天然氣領域出現時會考慮的事情。就我們銷售的產品而言，過去 15 年我們已經銷售了大量的石油和天然氣設備。克雷格會告訴我正確的統計數據，但我認為自 2010 年以來我們的資產銷售量已超過 1,200 億美元。因此，我們對投資組合進行了實質性的高評級。我們也掉隊了。如果你回到 2008 年，我想，我們已經從 20 家煉油廠減少到 6 到 7 家。因此，我們在過去確實經歷了嚴格的高品級。當我們展望我們的高評級時，顯然，我們會考慮上游或低利潤率的低利潤業務——上游或便利領域、零售燃料領域的低利潤業務。而其他人，如果是晚年，另一個人看到的機會比我們看到的更多，他們的投資障礙比我們看到的要低，那麼我們可能會考慮繼續進行此類撤資。但目前撤資的整體水準相當低。我們現在的估計是每年 20 億到 30 億美元，這就是我們對未來的看法，克里斯。謝謝你提出這個厚顏無恥的問題。

We'll take the final question from Kim Fustier at HSBC.

我們將回答匯豐銀行 Kim Fustier 的最後一個問題。

Firstly, I wanted to see if you could clarify what you mean by structure in the gas market. Does that mean you're making most of your money from trading time spreads and so we should look at the shape of the TTF or JKN forward curve rather than extracting value from geographical spreads or prompt volatility? And secondly, just coming back to upstream production. You're guiding to flat volumes in Q4 versus Q3, and that's despite product ramp-ups, such as (inaudible). Is that because 3Q was such a high baseline? Or are there divestments or maintenance somewhere in the portfolio, offsetting the project ramp-ups?

首先，我想看看您能否澄清天然氣市場結構的含義。這是否意味著您的大部分資金來自交易時間利差，因此我們應該查看 TTF 或 JKN 遠期曲線的形狀，而不是從地理利差或即時波動中提取價值？其次，回到上游生產。儘管產品有所增加，但您預計第四季度的銷量與第三季度持平，例如（聽不清楚）。是因為第三季的基線太高了嗎？或者投資組合中的某個地方是否有撤資或維護，抵消了專案的擴張？

Great. Thanks, Kim. I'll tackle gas trading and Kate can tackle production question for you. Look, we make money an awful lot of different ways inside our trading division, especially the Gas Trading division. We impact that a little bit in Denver a few weeks ago. I think the comment on 3Q is that we're seeing structural storage long where I think we're at 98% full as the latest out I've seen inside Europe. So what that means is you might get a little bit of prompt volatility, but we're not a big paper trader in natural gas. So you might see a little bit of prompt volatility, but the structure, as you look out across multiple months was not moving because of that sheer length in storage. So that's what we mean by structural. The teams in the gas side make money from a lot of different things. They do it on geographic arbitrage, They'll do it on local arbitrage on outages. They will do it on price (inaudible) between prompt versus length, et cetera. So I think mainly it's an observation of what happened in 3Q and what we've obviously seen in October so far. It's just a situation where inventories are very full in Europe. Inventories are quite full in the United States, and that just means there's much less much less money to make on volatility. So I hope that makes some sense, and we'll pass over to Kate for the last question on production.

偉大的。謝謝，金。我將解決天然氣貿易問題，凱特可以為您解決生產問題。看，我們在交易部門內透過多種不同的方式賺錢，尤其是天然氣交易部門。幾週前我們在丹佛對此產生了一些影響。我認為對第三季的評論是，我們看到結構性儲存很長，我認為我們在歐洲看到的最新情況是 98%。因此，這意味著您可能會出現一點點即時波動，但我們並不是天然氣的大型紙面交易商。因此，您可能會看到一點點即時波動，但當您觀察多個月時，由於儲存時間過長，結構並沒有改變。這就是我們所說的結構性。天然氣方面的團隊透過很多不同的方式賺錢。他們透過地理套利來做到這一點，他們將透過本地停電套利來做到這一點。他們會根據提示與長度之間的價格（聽不清楚）來做到這一點，等等。所以我認為這主要是對第三季度發生的情況以及我們在 10 月迄今為止所看到的情況的觀察。這只是歐洲庫存非常滿的情況。美國的庫存相當充足，這只是意味著在波動性下賺到的錢要少得多。所以我希望這是有道理的，我們將把最後一個關於生產的問題轉交給凱特。

Yes. Thanks, Kim. So I think in terms of 4Q maintenance -- 4Q volumes, apologies. Yes, so 3Q was strong. In 4Q, we typically have a level of seasonal maintenance that you'll see coming through our portfolio. You'll see that coming through the volumes in 4Q. This is a big part of why we're guiding that production will be broadly flat quarter-on-quarter. I think I mentioned earlier, you still have the PSA entitlement impacts, but those two components, the seasonal maintenance and the impacts of PSA, are part of what creates the volume forecast for the fourth quarter and the fact that it's pretty flat. And let's see what the weather situation does in the Gulf of Mexico at the moment, that's looking fairly quiet. So we'll keep our fingers crossed on that front, too.

是的。謝謝，金。所以我認為就第四季度的維護而言——第四季度的銷量，抱歉。是的，所以第三季很強勁。在第四季度，我們通常會進行一定程度的季節性維護，您將透過我們的產品組合看到這一點。您將在第四季度的銷量中看到這一點。這是我們指導產量環比基本持平的重要原因。我想我之前提到過，仍然受到 PSA 權利的影響，但這兩個組成部分，即季節性維護和 PSA 的影響，是第四季度銷售預測的一部分，而且事實上它相當持平。讓我們看看墨西哥灣目前的天氣狀況如何，看起來相當安靜。所以我們也會在這方面祈禱。

Very good. Kate, Murray, thanks very much. That's the end of the questions. Maybe on that note, let me hand back to Murray for closing remarks.

非常好。凱特、莫瑞，非常感謝。問題到此結束。也許在這一點上，讓我回到默里做結束語。

Thanks, Kate. And to the audience on the web, thanks very much for listening. I'd just like to recap 3Q in our minds. It was a strong operational delivery and strong cash delivery. We're very proud of the safety (inaudible) that we see of continuing reduction in Tier 1 events, 96% plant reliability and the refineries and in the upstream facilities is an amazing result as is declining unit cost in an inflationary environment and production volume growth of 3% year-on-year, year-to-date.

謝謝，凱特。對於網路上的觀眾，非常感謝您的聆聽。我只想在我們的腦海中回顧第三季。這是強勁的營運交付和強勁的現金交付。我們對安全性（聽不清楚）感到非常自豪，我們看到一級事件持續減少，工廠可靠性達到96%，煉油廠和上游設施取得了驚人的成果，通貨膨脹環境下的單位成本和產量不斷下降年初至今，年增 3%。

I don't think there's anybody else in large-scale companies doing that type of growth. So we're very happy with performance and cash delivery as well. And what we're focused on moving forward is safely continuing to deliver quarter-on-quarter performance and delivering the strategy we laid out to the market for hitting our 2025 targets and our 2030 aims. And with that, I look forward to talking to you again in the New Year in February where I think we'll be hosting maybe from a different place in the United States. So we look forward to that in due course. Thanks, everyone. Bye-bye.

我認為大型公司中沒有其他人能夠實現這種類型的成長。因此，我們對業績和現金交付也非常滿意。我們前進的重點是安全地繼續提供季度環比業績，並向市場實施我們為實現 2025 年目標和 2030 年目標而製定的策略。因此，我期待在二月份的新年再次與您交談，我想我們可能會在美國的另一個地方舉行。因此，我們期待在適當的時候實現這一點。感謝大家。再見。