英國石油 (BP) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Well, thanks everyone for joining BP's first quarter 2024 results call today. As you'll be aware, we introduced our quarterly trading statement this quarter. And this morning also published the slides, and script along with a video presentation in conjunction with our stock exchange announcement.

好吧，感謝大家今天參加 BP 2024 年第一季業績電話會議。如您所知，我們本季推出了季度交易報表。今天早上我們也發布了與我們的股票交易所公告相關的幻燈片、腳本和視訊簡報。

Alongside this, the results call has moved to early afternoon U.K. time, and we hope, together, these updates around our process and disclosures has been helpful to everyone and you've had a chance to review everything this morning and this afternoon.

除此之外，結果電話會議已移至英國時間下午早些時候，我們希望，這些有關我們流程和披露的更新對每個人都有所幫助，並且您有機會在今天上午和下午審查所有內容。

So, we're going to aim to finish the call at 2:00 p.m. U.K. time. As some of you will be aware, we understand our counterparts at Saudi Aramco start their call around that time and we want to give you a chance to join that as required.

因此，我們計劃在下午 2:00 結束通話。英國時間。你們中的一些人可能知道，我們了解到沙特阿美公司的同行大約在那個時候開始他們的電話會議，我們希望給你一個機會根據需要加入。

So maybe let me start there and on that note, hand over to Murray for a few brief opening remarks.

因此，也許我應該從這裡開始，然後交給 Murray 做幾個簡短的開場白。

Good, thanks Craig and thanks everyone for joining Kate and I on the call today. To recap today's results, we delivered resilient financial performance despite the unplanned outage at our Whiting refinery. First quarter adjusted EBITDA was $10.3 billion and underlying earnings were $2.7 billion.

很好，謝謝 Craig，也謝謝大家今天參加 Kate 和我之間的電話會議。回顧今天的業績，儘管我們的惠廷煉油廠發生意外停產，但我們仍然實現了穩健的財務表現。第一季調整後的 EBITDA 為 103 億美元，基本收益為 27 億美元。

Adjusting for the expected seasonal working capital build, operating cash flow was $7.4 billion in the quarter. We continue to make good strategic progress, and this quarter saw the safe start-up of the Azeri Central East project in the Caspian Sea.

經預期季節性營運資本累積調整後，本季營運現金流為 74 億美元。我們持續取得良好的策略進展，本季里海阿塞拜疆中東專案安全啟動。

BPX also brought online Checkmate, our third central processing facility. And in biogas, Archaea brought online its largest modular RNG plant to-date and has 5 in commissioning. Last week, our JV Azule announced a 42.5% farm-in into an exploration block in the Orange basin offshore Namibia.

BPX 也上線了我們的第三個中央處理設施 Checkmate。在沼氣領域，Archaea 推出了迄今為止最大的模組化 RNG 工廠，目前已有 5 個工廠正在調試中。上週，我們的合資公司 Azule 宣布獲得納米比亞近海奧蘭治盆地一個勘探區塊 42.5% 的權益。

You've also heard about how we are simplifying, removing complexity across the company and today we have announced a target to deliver at least $2 billion of cash cost savings by the end of 2026.

您也聽說了我們如何在整個公司範圍內簡化和消除複雜性，今天我們宣布了在 2026 年底實現至少 20 億美元現金成本節約的目標。

Craig, back to you.

克雷格，回到你身邊。

Super, thanks, Murray. So we'll go straight to questions now and we'll take the first question from Josh Stone at UBS. Josh?

太棒了，謝謝你，莫瑞。現在我們直接進入提問環節，第一個問題由瑞銀的 Josh Stone 提出。喬希？

And appreciate the slightly longer time to study the results. Yes, 2 questions please. First, I want to pick up on your 2025 EBITDA targets which you reiterated specifically in the TGEs of $3 billion to $4 billion. If I look at consensus, it feels like few people believe in these numbers and it's only now almost 18 months away.

並感謝您花費更長的時間來研究結果。是的，請問 2 個問題。首先，我想談談你們的 2025 年 EBITDA 目標，你們在 TGE 中特別重申了這一目標，即 30 億美元至 40 億美元。如果我看共識，我感覺很少人相信這些數字，而且現在距離現在只有將近 18 個月的時間了。

So yes, if I look at how the business has started, the buyer business looks like it started a bit lower than you might have expected. You talk about TA was impacted by an ongoing recession of freight in the U.S. So my question is, where do you see the biggest risk in these 2025 targets and what do you think the market is missing on that side?

所以是的，如果我看一下業務的起步情況，就會發現買方業務的起步似乎比你預期的要低。您談到 TA 受到美國貨運持續衰退的影響。所以我的問題是，您認為 2025 年目標中最大的風險是什麼？您認為市場在這方面缺乏什麼？

And then the second question on the Whiting refinery, good to see back online. Maybe now the dust has settled. Can you just talk about what lessons you've learned from the outage and maybe some initiatives you've put in place to prevent further issues going forward?

第二個問題是關於懷廷煉油廠的，很高興看到它重新上線。也許現在塵埃已經落定。您能否談談從這次停電事件中吸取了什麼教訓，以及您採取了一些措施來防止進一步發生問題？

Yes, sure Josh. Thanks for the questions. I'll take both of these actually. I think on Whiting it's a bit too early for lessons learned. The teams had a full electrical outage at Whiting. It took us about 6 weeks to get it back operating safely. The teams have now done that. Well, done to the teams for achieving that. And they're now going through the process of lessons learned probably in the design space. So that is still work to do.

是的，當然可以，喬希。感謝您的提問。事實上我會選擇這兩個。我認為現在就懷廷事件吸取教訓還為時過早。車隊在惠廷遭遇了全面停電。我們花了大約六週的時間才讓它恢復安全運作。現在各隊已經做到了這一點。很好，團隊取得了這項成就。他們現在可能正在經歷在設計領域中學到的經驗教訓的過程。所以這仍有工作要做。

As far as EBITDA from the transition growth engines, as we reported last year, we made about $1 billion of EBITDA. We're aiming for $3 billion to $4 billion of EBITDA by 2025. Where does that come from? A full year of TA, continued growth out of Archaea, it comes from EV moving to breakeven. It comes from real focus inside hydrogen as we focus the portfolio and move to the most likely things to move forward, and it comes from growing bio and growing convenience as well.

就轉型成長引擎的 EBITDA 而言，正如我們去年報告的那樣，我們的 EBITDA 約為 10 億美元。我們的目標是到 2025 年實現 EBITDA 達到 30 億至 40 億美元。這筆錢從何而來？全年的 TA，Archaea 的持續成長，源自於 EV 向損益平衡的轉變。它來自我們對氫能的真正關注，因為我們關注的是產品組合，並轉向最有可能向前發展的事物，它也來自於生物的成長和便利性的成長。

I think on the confidence side, C&M continues to grow very strongly. We continue to see 9% year-on-year growth and with the expansion in TA, that should be very, very good for convenience. EV remains on track. I think the number is 93%. 83% of all the fast chargers are EBITDA positive now. So Richard and the team are doing a good job driving that engine to breakeven.

我認為從信心方面來看，C&M 將繼續強勁成長。我們繼續看到 9% 的同比增長，隨著 TA 的擴張，這對於便利性來說應該非常非常好。電動車仍在正常軌道上。我認為這個數字是93%。目前 83% 的快速充電器的 EBITDA 均為正值。因此，理查德和他的團隊在推動引擎實現收支平衡方面做得很好。

Archaea continues to get plants online. As I said, we got a big one online in 1Q, and we're commissioning 5 as we speak. So we should be in good shape for the $15 million to $20 million and RIN prices are holding very high for the D3 RINs in the United States as well.

古菌繼續使植物上線。正如我所說，我們在第一季就上線了一個大型項目，目前我們正在調試 5 個項目。因此，我們應該能夠很好地應對 1500 萬到 2000 萬美元的市場需求，而且美國的 D3 RIN 價格也保持很高的水平。

On the challenging side, bio, as everybody knows, the bio margins in Europe were tricky through 4Q and 1Q as mandates were rolled back across some of the Scandinavian countries. We do expect a change on that in the future, but it's hard to predict. It's kind of like a macro assumption that's hard to predict. And diesel, as you say, is challenging in the United States. There's a diesel recession.

就生物產業而言，眾所周知，由於部分斯堪的納維亞國家的強制規定被取消，歐洲的生物產業利潤率在第四季和第一季變得十分棘手。我們確實預計未來會發生變化，但很難預測。這有點像是難以預測的宏觀假設。正如您所說，柴油在美國面臨挑戰。柴油市場正在衰退。

We feel that will unwind as well as we move towards the back end of the year and into 2025 as well. But we feel confident on the 3 to 4 and we'll just have to see how that goes, but good momentum operationally, good momentum on synergies. And the macro is what we're fighting against a little bit right now. But let's see how that macro turns out. Thanks for your question, Josh.

我們認為，隨著年底和 2025 年的到來，這種情況也會逐漸緩解。但我們對 3 到 4 充滿信心，我們只需要看看進展如何，但營運勢頭良好，協同效應勢頭良好。宏觀因素正是我們現在所要對抗的。但是讓我們看看這個宏的結果如何。謝謝你的提問，喬希。

Thanks, Josh. We'll turn to Biraj Borkhataria, RBC. Biraj?

謝謝，喬希。我們將求助於加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的 Biraj Borkhataria。比拉傑？

And appreciate the more condensed format. The first one is just on the cost cutting. When I look at the public disclosures across you and your peers, if I take SG&A, for example, it does look like your figures are quite out of sync. It seems like they're growing faster than the peer group. And I can't really tell if it's all accounted for the same or not.

並欣賞更簡潔的格式。第一個是關於削減成本。當我查看您和您的同事的公開揭露資訊時，如果我以銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A) 為例，看起來你們的資料確實很不同步。看起來他們比同齡人成長得更快。我真的無法判斷這一切是否都是一樣的。

I guess, in your slide, you do some adjustments here. So maybe the question is, when you benchmark your costs and your performance, what is the starting position for BP? Is it that today you're better than average or you're slightly worse? And particularly, where do you see the opportunity there?

我猜，在你的幻燈片中，你在這裡做了一些調整。所以也許問題是，當您對成本和績效進行基準測試時，BP 的起點是什麼？今天您的表現比平均好還是稍微差一些？特別是，您認為那裡的機會在哪裡？

And then the second question is on another hot topic, which is a relisting. Its brought up by one of your counterparts. Where does BP sit on this? Is it a live debate? Do you see it as a structural disadvantage? Unlike your counterparts, you do have a big domestic U.S. business upstream and downstream there. So, just wanted to get your thoughts on that.

第二個問題是關於另一個熱門話題，即重新上市。這是你的一位同事提出的。 BP 對此持什麼態度？這是現場辯論嗎？您認為這是一個結構性劣勢嗎？與您的同行不同，您在美國國內確實擁有龐大的上游和下游業務。所以，只是想聽聽你對此的看法。

Great. Biraj, I'll ask Kate to tackle the cost question and how different we all account for these things. On relisting, I'll be consistent with what I've said in the past, Biraj. This is not on our agenda. What's on our agenda is safely performing quarter in and quarter out.

偉大的。 Biraj，我會請 Kate 來解決成本問題以及我們對這些事情的不同看法。在重新列出時，我會與過去所說的保持一致，Biraj。這不在我們的議程上。我們的議程是按季度安全地進行。

We're in a great position with the business. We've got strong growth coming through. We've got solid targets out to 2025 that we believe we can deliver. It will deliver 3% to 4% underlying cash flow growth if we hit our plans through the rest of the decade and certainly through '25 as well.

我們的業務處於非常有利的地位。我們正經歷強勁的成長。我們制定了 2025 年的明確目標，並相信我們能夠實現這些目標。如果我們在接下來的十年裡，甚至到2025年都能順利完成計劃，那麼基礎現金流將會成長3%到4%。

And as we continue buybacks, that gives us then a chance to increase the dividend over time. We have confidence from it because it's worked before. In 2022 in the first half of 2023, we compressed the share price with some of the Americans by 1/3, simply by doing that performance. So that's what's on our agenda, not relisting. And so we're just focused tightly, tightly on performance, Biraj. Kate, over to you on the first question, please.

隨著我們繼續回購，我們就有機會隨著時間的推移增加股利。我們對此很有信心，因為它以前就發揮過作用。 2022年2023年上半年我們跟一些美國人把股價壓縮了1/3，單純就是做了那個業績。這就是我們的議程，而不是重新列出。因此，我們只是緊緊地關注性能，Biraj。凱特，第一個問題請交給你。

Yes, so I've seen some of the narrative. Look, it's incredibly hard under the current accounting standards to really try and compare like-for-like, line-by-line the P&L account. There's a level of interpretation, let's say, on how companies can actually account for their costs through the income statements. That makes line-by-line comparison quite tricky.

是的，我看過一些敘述。你看，在現行會計準則下，要真正試著逐行比較損益表是極為困難的。對於公司如何透過損益表來實際計算其成本，存在著一定程度的解釋。這使得逐行比較變得相當棘手。

What I would say is that, if you step back to February, and we talked about the fact that we were going to drive focus through the business, and we were going to deliver the next wave of efficiency. What we're really focused on is how we create our own greater efficiency and our own reduction in our cash costs. And what I would say is on our unit production cost, our lifting costs, we think we're very competitive at $6 a barrel.

我想說的是，如果回顧二月份，我們談到我們將透過業務來推動重點，我們將實現下一波效率。我們真正關注的是如何提高我們的效率並降低我們的現金成本。我想說的是，就我們的單位生產成本和提升成本而言，我們認為每桶 6 美元的價格非常具有競爭力。

So, I guess, my guidance to you go forward, Biraj, is to anchor yourself on cash costs, which as you can see from the slide, we've tried to point you towards, if you toggle from where our total reported costs are down to our cash costs. That's how we've disclosed against in the past. That's how we'll continue to disclose against as we deliver this $2 billion of cost reductions through the end of 2026.

因此，我想，Biraj，我對您未來的指導是將自己固定在現金成本上，正如您從幻燈片中看到的那樣，如果您從我們的總報告成本切換到我們的現金成本，我們已嘗試向您指出這一點。這就是我們過去披露反對意見的方式。這就是我們在 2026 年底前實現 20 億美元成本削減目標時將繼續披露的資訊。

And then finally, what I would say is, I think IFRS 18, which comes in at the beginning of 2027, will probably make your lives a bit easier. It will force more transparency and probably greater comparability across the sector. So I hope that's helpful.

最後，我想說的是，我認為 2027 年初實施的 IFRS 18 可能會讓你們的生活變得更輕鬆。它將提高整個行業的透明度，並可能增強整個行業的可比性。我希望這會有所幫助。

I'm going to move stateside now, given we're at a slightly more hospitable time. I take the first question from Paul Cheng at Scotia, Paul?

鑑於現在的氣候更適宜，我現在要搬到美國了。我回答來自 Scotia 的 Paul Cheng 提出的第一個問題，Paul？

Kate in the press release, you guys talking about the Egypt devaluation balance impact or foreign currency impact. What's the -- is there a number that you can share that? How big is that number?

凱特，在新聞稿中，你們談論了埃及貶值餘額影響或外幣影響。那個數字是多少——您能分享一下嗎？這個數字有多大？

And also that from the fourth quarter to the first quarter, the gas and LCE is down roughly about $100 million in the adjusted earnings. How is that contribution -- is coming from the low carbon side? In other words, that is low carbon getting better or getting worse that we are seeing there? So that's the first question.

而且從第四季到第一季度，天然氣和 LCE 的調整後收益下降了約 1 億美元。這種貢獻是如何從低碳來的？換句話說，我們看到的低碳變好了還是變壞了？這是第一個問題。

Kate, over to you on Egypt. I think it answers the second question as well, doesn't it?

凱特，關於埃及的事交給你了。我認為它也回答了第二個問題，不是嗎？

Yes, pretty much does. Yes, so on Egypt, we saw a significant devaluation in the currency. It went from 30 to 48, when Egypt free floated ahead of the injection of funds from the IMF and others, as you will have seen. So that foreign exchange impact has flowed through the first quarter. It's around about 0.2. You can also see it driving our tax rate up in the quarter as well. So that's what's going on with regard to Egypt and devaluation.

是的，確實如此。是的，關於埃及，我們看到貨幣大幅貶值。如你所見，當埃及在國際貨幣基金組織和其他機構注入資金之前實行自由浮動匯率時，匯率從 30 上升到了 48。因此，外匯影響已經貫穿了第一季。大約是 0.2。您還可以看到它也推動了我們本季的稅率上升。這就是有關埃及和貨幣貶值的情況。

With regard to the gas and low carbon performance. So we're up on production. ARCOP down -- really down just quarter-on-quarter based on lower realizations and FX. So that's the story with regard to G&LCE for the quarter.

關於燃氣和低碳性能。因此我們的產量已經提高。 ARCOP 下降—實際上只是由於實現率和外匯匯率較低而環比下降。這就是本季度 G&LCE 的情況。

Okay. Kate on the cost reduction, the $2 billion how much of them is related to any divestment or that that's purely on the actual underlying cost performance better?

好的。凱特談到成本削減，這 20 億美元有多少與資產剝離有關，或者這純粹是為了實際的潛在成本表現更好？

Yes. So we'll step through the intervention. So there are 4 areas we're focusing on. And one of it is focusing our portfolio. As you've talked -- heard us talk about for a little while now since we set out our 6 priorities in February. So there will be some of that, which is delivered through portfolio change as we get clearer on the component parts and how they contribute and when they get delivered, we'll update you in due course.

是的。因此我們將逐步進行介入。我們重點關註四個領域。其中之一就是集中我們的投資組合。正如您所說——自從我們在二月提出 6 個優先事項以來，我們已經談論了一段時間了。因此，隨著我們更加清楚各個組成部分以及它們如何貢獻以及何時交付，我們將透過投資組合變更來實現其中的一些目標，我們會適時向您通報。

Yes. Paul, it's more about focusing our engineering efforts. If you think about 2020 to 2023, it was about creating an awful lot of options in the upstream and refining in all of the transition growth engines as well. And we now have 32 final investment decisions to make across '24 and '25. So a large part of this focus is getting really clear which ones are these we're going to take forward. And as we do that, redeploying engineers to the highest quality ones, redeploying third-party resources, et cetera. That will create a lot of cost savings as we really, really focus on these things moving forward.

是的。保羅，這更重要的是集中我們的工程努力。如果你考慮一下 2020 年到 2023 年，你會發現這涉及在上游創造大量選擇以及在所有轉型成長引擎中進行精煉。現在我們需要在 2024 年和 2025 年做出 32 項最終投資決策。因此，我們關注的重點是明確我們要推進哪些工作。當我們這樣做的時候，我們會將工程師重新部署到最優秀的團隊，重新部署第三方資源等等。當我們真正專注於這些事情向前發展時，這將節省大量的成本。

A small example of that to think about. During the past 90 days as we decided to sanction Atlantis tieback in the Gulf of Mexico, so you sanctioned that. At the same time, we decided to release BirAllah and Yakaar-Teranga in Mauritania and Senegal. So that's about being really, really driven by returns and deciding the best value, and then we can reallocate engineers. And yes, and use less third-party services, which creates cost savings.

這是一個值得思考的小例子。在過去的 90 天裡，我們決定批准在墨西哥灣進行亞特蘭提斯號的回接，所以你們也批准了。同時，我們決定在茅利塔尼亞和塞內加爾釋放 BirAllah 和 Yakaar-Teranga。所以這實際上是由回報驅動並決定最佳價值，然後我們可以重新分配工程師。是的，減少使用第三方服務，從而節省成本。

We'll stay in the U.S. and take the next question from Ryan Todd at Piper Sandler. Ryan?

我們將留在美國並回答 Piper Sandler 的 Ryan Todd 提出的下一個問題。瑞安？

Maybe first one on refining. You referenced the impact of narrowing crude differentials in North America. Can you talk about the impact that you expect in the U.S. from the start-up of TMX, any flexibility that you might have to mitigate the impact, whether in the Mid-Con or on the West Coast to Cherry Point.

也許是第一個關於精煉的。您提到了北美原油價差縮小的影響。您能否談談您預計 TMX 啟動將對美國產生的影響，以及您是否可以採取任何靈活性來減輕這種影響，無論是在中部康涅狄格州還是在西海岸到櫻桃點。

And then maybe a follow-up on the on the cost that you were talking about there. There's increasing focus on cost inflation on the project side that we've seen in areas like Deepwater and LNG and the impact that it's having on some project returns. So can you maybe talk about what you're seeing across the portfolio impact on potential future FIDs like the Paleogene or future LNG expansion phases and your ability to mitigate those?

然後也許會跟進您剛才談到的成本問題。人們越來越關注深水和液化天然氣等領域的項目成本通膨及其對某些項目回報的影響。那麼，您能否談談您所看到的整個投資組合對未來潛在的最終投資決定（例如古近紀或未來的液化天然氣擴建階段）的影響，以及您緩解這些影響的能力？

Yes. Sure. I'll take the first one, Kate. You want to take the second one? On the first one, on TMX and what we're seeing. Obviously, differentials have started collapse on WTI, WCS. I think they're probably sitting -- last time I looked somewhere around 14. It's probably not a bad range plus or minus a couple of bucks as far as what the range is on WTI, WCS is moving forward. Hard to predict, of course, but that's our sense of what will occur.

是的。當然。我想要第一個，凱特。你想拿第二個嗎？第一個是關於 TMX 以及我們所看到的。顯然，WTI 和 WCS 之間的差異已經開始縮小。我認為他們可能坐在那裡 - 上次我看了大約 14 個。就 WTI 的範圍而言，這可能不是一個糟糕的範圍，上下浮動幾美元，WCS 正在向前發展。當然，這很難預測，但這就是我們對將要發生的事情的感覺。

We've done 2 things to mitigate against this. First of all, as TMX comes online, it gets a direct route for that oil in the Cherry Point. So that will mitigate. Cherry Point will be able to access more affordable product moving forward. So that should be a benefit to us. It helps mitigate some of that effect. Plus, we have some pipeline re-wheeling that we've done over the past few years to be ready to flow product up and down up across North America to manage risk associated with Whiting as well.

我們採取了兩項措施來緩解這種情況。首先，隨著 TMX 上線，它就獲得了一條從 Cherry Point 直接輸送石油的路線。這樣就可以減輕。 Cherry Point 今後將可獲得更實惠的產品。所以這對我們來說應該是件好事。它有助於減輕部分影響。此外，我們在過去幾年中對一些管道進行了改造，以準備好在北美上下輸送產品，從而管理與 Whiting 相關的風險。

So net-net, we think we're probably still in the same shape we were pre-TMX coming online between Cherry Point and between our flexibility with Whiting and Cushing. Kate, over to you on the capital question.

因此，總體而言，我們認為我們可能仍處於 TMX 上線之前 Cherry Point 之間以及 Whiting 和 Cushing 之間的靈活性狀態。凱特，關於資本問題，請你談談。

Yes, sure. So in terms of inflation, I think the area where we're still seeing inflation persist is in wage growth, so that's an area that we continue to battle against. The procurement team that we have inside the organization, are working and have worked over the last few years, incredibly hard to mitigate all the effects of inflation that we can through things like competitive bidding and moving into much more performance-based models.

是的，當然。因此，就通貨膨脹而言，我認為我們仍然看到通貨膨脹持續存在的領域是薪資成長，所以這是我們繼續努力應對的領域。我們組織內部的採購團隊在過去幾年中一直在努力工作，透過競爭性投標和轉向更多基於績效的模式等方式盡可能地減輕通貨膨脹的影響。

Alliancing and partnerships have been effective in terms of helping us drive our cost down. What I would say is, the odd capacity is type, utilizations are high, probably the highest they've been for about a decade, and we think they may well remain like that for another 3 to 5 years perhaps, so that's something we'll pay attention to.

聯盟和夥伴關係在幫助我們降低成本方面發揮了有效作用。我想說的是，奇怪的容量是類型，利用率很高，可能是大約十年來的最高水平，我們認為這種狀態可能會持續 3 到 5 年，所以這是我們會關注的事情。

At the end of the day, when we think about the investment decisions, we will be, as you'd expect us to be, returns and value driven, so we will be making sure that all our projects that we sanction are meeting hurdles. But we feel pretty good about Kaskida right now. We hope to be able to move to sanction that at some point during the remainder of this year.

歸根結底，當我們考慮投資決策時，我們將像您所期望的那樣，以回報和價值為導向，因此我們將確保我們批准的所有項目都能克服障礙。但我們現在對 Kaskida 感覺很好。我們希望能夠在今年剩餘時間內的某個時候批准該法案。

And I think on the LNG side from recent bids we're seeing, we're okay to continue moving this forward, whether it's in Asia or the Middle East as well. I think enough companies are now recycling things that we're seeing some looseness inside the supply chain. But it's a good question to ask us each quarter to observe as we see the bids come in with the potential sanctions upcoming.

我認為，從我們最近看到的液化天然氣投標來看，我們可以繼續推進這一進程，無論是在亞洲還是中東。我認為現在有足夠多的公司進行回收，我們看到供應鏈內部出現了一些鬆散現象。但當我們每季觀察投標情況時，都會問我們一個好問題，因為潛在的製裁即將到來。

We'll take the next question from Chris Kuplent at Bank of America. Chris?

我們將回答美國銀行的 Chris Kuplent 提出的下一個問題。克里斯？

Just 2 quick questions for me. I was wondering whether there is a specific reason you no longer publish your surplus cash flow metric. That seems to have dropped off the page and just checking whether my back of the envelope, minus $1.5 billion in the quarter is anywhere close to where you would get to with your definition? That's question number one.

我只想問兩個簡單的問題。我想知道您不再發布盈餘現金流指標是否有具體原因。這似乎已經從頁面上消失了，只是檢查一下我信封背面的數字，本季度減去 15 億美元是否接近您的定義？這是第一個問題。

And question number two is on the ADNOC JV in Egypt. I'm assuming that is yet to close and it's appearing in your assets for sale. So I wonder whether that will translate into disposal proceeds. And obviously, you're guiding still to $2.2 billion to $3 billion for the full year. And if you could give us any more clarity on how you're going to account for that JV?

第二個問題是關於埃及阿布達比國家石油公司 (ADNOC) 合資企業。我假設它尚未結束並且它出現在您要出售的資產中。所以我想知道這是否會轉化為處置收益。顯然，您仍預計全年營收將達到 22 億美元至 30 億美元。您能否更清楚地告訴我們您將如何對該合資企業進行會計處理？

Yes, sure. I'll let Kate answer the surplus one, and then I'll tackle Egypt.

是的，當然。我會讓凱特回答多餘的問題，然後我會解決埃及問題。

Yes. So when we updated the financial frame in February and set out a 2-year frame to the end of 2025, what we were after was creating greater clarity and predictability on distributions. As a consequence of that, we've delinked our quarterly share buyback from surplus cash calculation. It was creating an awful lot of volatility.

是的。因此，當我們在二月更新財務框架並製定到 2025 年底的兩年框架時，我們追求的是創造更大的透明度和可預測性的分配。因此，我們將季度股票回購與盈餘現金計算脫鉤。這造成了極大的動盪。

It remains something we look at over time, as you can see from the fin frame, we said that over time, we expect to distribute 80% of surplus cash to shareholders. So, we'll think about the rate at which we may, or may not want to include further disclosures. It's not something we intend to disclose on quarter-on-quarter now any longer, as it's not a direct input to the share buyback. So, we don't feel the need to make any quarterly disclosure on that.

這仍然是我們長期關注的事情，正如您從財務框架中看到的那樣，我們表示，隨著時間的推移，我們預計將 80％ 的盈餘現金分配給股東。因此，我們會考慮是否要進一步揭露的速度。我們現在不再打算按季度披露這些信息，因為它不是股票回購的直接投入。因此，我們認為沒有必要對此進行任何季度披露。

At the end of the day, cash flow is going to go up and down over the quarters, with things like working capital movements. So, we expected the balance sheet to tolerate some fluctuations in the first half. We saw that come through. We have the typical working capital build, and we've got heavy CapEx in the first quarter, and our divestment proceeds are back ended. But our balance sheet is strong enough to tolerate that. We can look through that over time. And that's why we have moved to a frame that stops that quarter-on-quarter link to a surplus cash calculation.

最終，現金流會隨著營運資本流動等因素在各季度內上下波動。因此，我們預計上半年資產負債表將會出現一些波動。我們看到了這一點。我們有典型的營運資本建設，我們在第一季有大量的資本支出，而且我們的撤資收益也已到位。但我們的資產負債表夠強大，可以承受這種情況。我們可以隨著時間的推移來審視這一點。這就是為什麼我們轉向一個框架，停止將季度環比與盈餘現金計算聯繫起來。

Great. Thanks Kate. And Chris, on ADNOC, yes, we've moved forward with the transaction. It's an asset held for sale. As you say, we're waiting for completion second half of the year, probably 3Q, 4Q. It depends really on how we move our way through the -- with the Egyptian authorities.

偉大的。謝謝凱特。克里斯，關於阿布達比國家石油公司，是的，我們已經推動了交易。這是一項持有待售的資產。正如您所說，我們正在等待下半年完成，可能是第三季或第四季。這實際上取決於我們如何與埃及當局溝通。

The accounting for that, it will show up as proceeds. As discussed, I can't disclose those proceeds now. We're under a confidentiality agreement. But by the time it closes, you'll see that inside the accounts, but it will take up a good chunk of the $2 billion to $3 billion target that we talked about. I hope that's clear, Chris.

經過會計核算，它將被顯示為收益。正如所討論的，我現在不能透露這些收益。我們簽訂了保密協議。但當它結束時，你會在帳戶中看到這一點，但它將佔據我們談到的 20 億至 30 億美元目標的很大一部分。我希望這很清楚，克里斯。

We'll take the next question from Lydia Rainforth at Barclays. Lydia?

我們將回答巴克萊銀行的 Lydia Rainforth 提出的下一個問題。莉迪亞？

2, if I could. Just if we could go back to the cost base and the targets that you've got the at least $2 billion, can you just walk us through in more detail some of the examples of what that involves? And because it's sometimes quite hard to say what are good costs that help growth and what are bad costs reflecting inefficiencies.

2、如果可以的話。如果我們能夠回到成本基礎和至少 20 億美元的目標，您能否更詳細地向我們介紹其中涉及的一些例子？因為有時很難說哪些是有助於成長的好成本，哪些是反映效率低下的壞成本。

And I am a little bit surprised that you're talking about $20 billion of costs that -- in that transportation and shipping costs that there's absolutely nothing you can do about. That does surprise me a little bit. So any thoughts you have on that?

我有點驚訝你談到了 200 億美元的運輸和航運成本，而你對此完全無能為力。這確實讓我有點吃驚。那麼您對此有什麼看法？

And then I'm going to come back a little bit to the EBITDA guidance. Given the cost savings number, is there a reasonable argument that actually the EBITDA numbers and targets should be moved a little bit higher?

然後我將稍微回顧一下 EBITDA 指引。考慮到成本節省數字，是否有合理的論點表明 EBITDA 數字和目標實際上應該稍微提高一點？

And effectively, I guess, what I'm asking for Murray is slightly separately is -- and I suspect you're not going to give me this. But an exit rate on EBITDA for 2024 is to just -- we should be seeing momentum at this stage in that EBITDA number during this year, right?

實際上，我想，我對 Murray 的要求是稍微不同的——而且我懷疑你不會給我這個。但是 2024 年 EBITDA 的退出率只是 - 我們應該在今年的現階段看到 EBITDA 數字的勢頭，對嗎？

Yes. Great. Lydia. Thank you for your questions. Let's see cost examples, I'll tackle. I think the second question I'll let Kate deal with.

是的。偉大的。莉迪亞。感謝您的提問。讓我們看看成本範例，我會解決的。我想第二個問題我會讓凱特來處理。

On cost examples, so there are 4 areas that we're really focused on Lydia to deliver at least $2 billion by the end of 2026. The first one was focusing the portfolio. You heard about me talk about that already, so I won't repeat myself.

就成本範例而言，我們真正關注的領域有 4 個，Lydia 將在 2026 年底前實現至少 20 億美元的收益。第一個是關注投資組合。您已經聽我談論過這個話題了，所以我就不再重複了。

The second one is your favorite, which is digital transformation. We've done an awful lot to digitize many parts of our business, and we're now applying GenAI to it. The places that we're seeing tremendous results on our coding. We need 70% less coders from third parties to code as the AI handles most of the coding. The human only needs to look at the final 30% to validate it. That's a big savings for the company moving forward.

第二個是你最喜歡的，那就是數位轉型。我們為實現業務的許多部分數位化做了大量工作，現在我們正在將 GenAI 應用於其中。我們在編碼方面看到了巨大的成果。由於人工智慧處理了大部分編碼工作，我們需要的第三方編碼員減少了 70%。人類只需要查看最後 30% 即可驗證。這對於公司未來的發展來說是一筆巨大的節省。

Second, things like call centers, the language models have become so sophisticated now, they can operate in multiple language -- 14, 15 languages easily. In the past that hasn't been something we can do, so we can redeploy people off that given that the AI can do it. You heard my advertising example last quarter, where advertising cycle times moved from 4 to 5 months down to a couple of weeks. So that's obviously reducing spend with third-parties.

其次，像呼叫中心這樣的系統，其語言模型現在已經非常複雜，它們可以輕鬆地以多種語言（14、15種語言）運作。過去我們做不到這一點，所以如果人工智慧能夠做到這一點，我們就可以重新部署人員。您聽到了我上個季度的廣告範例，其中廣告週期從 4 到 5 個月縮短到了幾週。所以這顯然會減少第三方的支出。

We've now got GenAI in the hands through Microsoft Copilot across many, many parts of the business. And we'll continue to update with you with anecdotes as we go through. But I think this is just a tremendous step change in digital for our company, and I continue to look for ways to drive higher margin. And reduce cost, both on capital and cost.

現在，我們已經透過 Microsoft Copilot 在業務的許多部分採用了 GenAI。我們會繼續向您更新我們經歷的趣聞軼事。但我認為這對我們公司來說只是數位化的一個巨大的轉變，我會繼續尋找提高利潤率的方法。並降低成本，包括資本和成本。

The supplier is probably a nice little example to think about eliminating waste. Our good partners at Subsea7 have formed an alliance with us. In the past, we would have overseen at what they were doing. Instead now, we formed joint teams. They work together on a job. They try to figure out how to optimize it. We incentivize them for time and efficiency. And we have co-located teams that work together on these things.

供應商可能是一個很好的例子，可以幫助我們思考如何消除浪費。 Subsea7 的優秀合作夥伴已與我們結盟。過去，我們會監督他們的所作所為。現在，我們組建了聯合團隊。他們一起做一份工作。他們試圖找出如何優化它。我們激勵他們投入時間和提高效率。我們有位於同一地點的團隊共同致力於這些工作。

So what it does is it eliminates bid cycles, it reduces the number of engineers involved from both sides in getting everything done. It reduces vessel time, et cetera. So that's just one concept of alliances that we've been doing in the capital side with projects and drilling for a while, and we're now pushing that into the operation space both in the upstream and the refineries. So that will take out a lot of waste as we move these alliances forward as well.

因此，它的作用是消除投標週期，減少完成所有工作所需的雙方工程師的數量。它可以減少船舶時間等等。這只是我們在資本方面透過專案和鑽探進行聯盟的概念，現在我們正將其推向上游和煉油廠的營運領域。因此，當我們推進這些聯盟時，這也會減少很多浪費。

And then last, global capability hubs. We have a continuing need for engineering. It's scarce in the west. So we're looking east for that engineering capability. It's a different cost profile sometimes, but fabulous efficiency. We see that both in contractors. So contractors we work with are shifting that way and then ourselves as well across engineering, IT, et cetera.

最後，全球能力中心。我們對工程的需求是持續不斷的。在西方這種植物很少見。因此，我們向東方尋求這種工程能力。有時成本情況會有所不同，但效率卻非常高。我們在承包商身上看到了這一點。因此，與我們合作的承包商正在朝著這個方向轉變，我們自己也在朝著工程、IT 等領域轉變。

So those are the 4 examples of how we think we'll get to at least the $2 billion. No, Lydia, I'm not going to give you an update on '24 and run rate EBITDA. All I'll say is, I'm confident in the growth on an underlying cash flow basis of 3% to 4% through the decade, including in '24 and '25.

這就是我們認為至少能達到 20 億美元的 4 個例子。不，莉迪亞，我不會向你提供有關 24 年和運行率 EBITDA 的最新消息。我要說的是，我對未來十年（包括 2024 年和 2025 年）基礎現金流成長率 3% 至 4% 充滿信心。

We see strong growth out of the upstream with new projects coming online with BPX growing, with new LNG coming online from '23 to '25 mtpa, a return to normal tar seasons in our refineries, along with all the growth that we see from the TGEs and business like Castrol.

我們看到上游業務的強勁成長，隨著 BPX 的成長，新專案的上線，新的液化天然氣上線量從 23 到 25 百萬噸/年，我們的煉油廠恢復了正常的焦油季節，同時我們看到 TGEs 和嘉實多等業務也實現了成長。

So we feel comfortable with that 3% to 4% growth per annum underlying on a free cash flow basis through '24 and '25. Will the cost savings add to that? Let's see. I think it will take time to do some of these things. Some things will come through faster than others. But for now, we're saying an 26 basis. And let's see how we get on. Kate?

因此，我們對 2024 年和 2025 年自由現金流每年 3% 至 4% 的成長率感到滿意。成本節省會增加嗎？讓我們來看看。我認為做這些事情需要時間。有些事情會比其他事情來得更快。但目前，我們說的是 26 個基礎。讓我們看看進展如何。凱特？

I think you kind of did my job for me.

我認為你已經為我完成了我的工作。

Did I roll into your question. Sorry about that.

我是否回答了你的問題？很抱歉。

The only thing I was going to add is that, some of the changes that we're contemplating take time to effect and execute, and we do it in a way that we are confident we're managing risks, so there may be some parallel running costs at some point and we'll update you as we get clearer on that path and on any associated red tapes.

我唯一想補充的是，我們正在考慮的一些變化需要時間來影響和執行，而且我們以一種有信心管理風險的方式來進行，因此在某些時候可能會有一些並行的運行成本，當我們對這條路徑和任何相關的繁文縟節有了更清晰的了解後，我們會向你通報最新情況。

I hope that helps you, Lydia.

我希望這對你有幫助，莉迪亞。

Great.

偉大的。

We'll take the next question from Michele Della Vigna at Goldman Sachs. Michele?

我們將回答高盛的米歇爾·德拉·維尼亞 (Michele Della Vigna) 提出的下一個問題。米歇爾？

And congratulations on the focus on cost efficiency despite the relatively positive macroenvironment. 2 questions, if I may. On the dividend per share, it looks like we are up for an announcement next quarter. I was wondering how should we think about the underlying growth? We've got 3% to 4% absolute growth of the business, and we've got a share retirement that is running at between 6% and 7%.

儘管宏觀環境相對樂觀，但我們仍然注重成本效率，這值得祝賀。如果可以的話，我問兩個問題。關於每股股息，看起來我們將在下個季度公佈。我想知道我們應該如何看待潛在的成長？我們的業務絕對成長率為 3% 至 4%，而我們的股票退市率則在 6% 至 7% 之間。

Is it too simplistic to think about growth of the business plus share retirement equal, what can be achieved in terms of sustainable DPS growth?

如果將業務成長加上股票退市視為相等，那麼可持續 DPS 成長方面能取得什麼成就，這是否過於簡單了？

And then secondly, on the net interest expense, quite a difficult line to forecast. It's been around $900 million for the last 3 quarters. Is it fair to assume we remain at about that run rate in the coming quarters? Or is there anything else we need to take into consideration.

其次，淨利息支出很難預測。過去三個季度，這一數字一直約為 9 億美元。是否可以合理地假設我們在未來幾季內將保持這一運行率？或者我們還需要考慮其他什麼。

Kate, do you want to handle the dividend?

凱特，你想處理股息嗎？

Sure. So Michele, I think you may have done my arithmetic for me. I guess, a couple of points to just to add to that. So if you think about the financial frame, remember to anchor on our balance points. And also the fact that we are -- our first priority is that resilient dividend and at $60, the capacity to increase by 4% per annum. But as you rightly point out, we've had previous increases in 2Q 2022, 4Q 2022, 2Q 2023 each around 10%, underpinned by strong performance and by a reduced share count.

當然。所以，米歇爾，我想你可能已經幫我算完了。我想，還有幾點要補充。因此，如果您考慮財務框架，請記住以我們的平衡點為基準。而且事實上我們的首要任務是確保股利具有彈性，並且在每股 60 美元的情況下，能夠每年增加 4%。但正如您正確指出的那樣，我們在 2022 年第二季、2022 年第四季、2023 年第二季均實現了約 10% 的成長，這得益於強勁的業績和減少的股份數量。

So as you'd imagine, the Board will look into many factors when we come to that conversation in 2Q. But as you consider what we've done with our share count, I think we're 17% reduced at the end of 2023. And since 2Q '23 at the moment, we are about 5.5% reduced share count. So I'll let you add that to your current arithmetic.

因此，正如您所想像的，當我們在第二季度進行討論時，董事會將考慮許多因素。但是，考慮到我們對股票數量的處理，我認為到 2023 年底，我們的股票數量將減少 17%。目前，自 2023 年第二季以來，我們的股票數量已減少約 5.5%。所以我會讓你把它加到你目前的算術中。

But the Board makes that decision each and every quarter. And of course, you can look backwards to think about what we do looking forward. I think Michele on your net interest income expense, presuming flat is a sensible thing to do moving forward. I think that's just the easiest thing to do, rather than give guidance.

但董事會每季都會做出這個決定。當然，你也可以回顧過去，思考我們未來要做什麼。我認為 Michele 對您的淨利息收入支出的看法是，假設持平是明智之舉。我認為這只是最容易做的事情，而不是提供指導。

We'll take the next question from Martijn Rats at Morgan Stanley. Martin?

我們將回答摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats 提出的下一個問題。馬丁？

So last quarter, you were helpful in providing sort of a comment on the EBITDA that was delivered if it was restated under 2025 reference conditions, which of course, given that we're sort of tracking towards that 2025 guidance over the next couple of quarters, it's actually quite helpful. So this quarter EBITDA was $10.3 billion. Can you once again provide some color on what that would have been under 2025 reference conditions?

因此，上個季度，您對按照 2025 年參考條件重述的 EBITDA 提供了某種評論，這很有幫助，當然，考慮到我們在接下來的幾個季度中都在跟踪 2025 年的指引，這實際上非常有幫助。因此本季的 EBITDA 為 103 億美元。您能否再次提供一些關於 2025 年參考條件下的情況的詳細資訊？

And secondly, I wanted to ask you about yesterday's FT article. I'm sure you've read it. But there was an FT article that said that BP could make some additional changes on its longer term sort of targets, including the guidance for a decline in production by the end of the decade, the well-known 25% reduction target. I was wondering if you had any comments on that article?

其次，我想問您有關昨天《金融時報》文章的問題。我確信你已經讀過了。但英國《金融時報》的一篇文章稱，英國石油公司可能會對其長期目標做出一些額外的改變，包括到本世紀末產量下降的指導方針，即眾所周知的 25% 的減產目標。我想知道您對該文章有何評論？

Sure, I'll tackle both of those, Martin. Thanks for the questions. So what we said is that the conditions that prevailed in 2023, which ironically are very close to the conditions that prevailed in 1Q, 2024, that was a good starting point for how you should think about 2025. And then you should just apply underlying growth rate to get to what you think the EBITDA would be across the 2 years.

當然，我會解決這兩個問題，馬丁。感謝您的提問。因此，我們所說的是，2023 年的條件與 2024 年第一季的條件非常接近，這是您思考 2025 年的一個很好的起點。然後，您只需應用基礎成長率即可得出您認為的 2 年 EBITDA 數。

And we've talked about 3% to 4% underlying cashflow growth since CapEx is flat and since proceeds are relatively flat, that implies 3% to 4% EBITDA growth across '24 and '25 as well. And you can -- I've said the sources of those value numerous times to help you think about how you can quantify that. I think the only thing I'd say is the $10.3 billion that we had in 1Q, 2024 obviously had the unusual incident with Whiting. We wouldn't obviously plan for something like that moving forward.

由於資本支出持平且收益相對持平，我們討論了 3% 至 4% 的潛在現金流成長，這意味著 24 年和 25 年的 EBITDA 成長率也將達到 3% 至 4%。你可以——我已經多次說過這些價值的來源，以幫助你思考如何量化它。我想我唯一要說的是，我們在 2024 年第一季獲得的 103 億美元顯然與 Whiting 發生了不尋常的事件。我們顯然不會計劃做這樣的事情。

It had an impact of around a $0.5 billion in the quarter, so you should probably add that back and you're getting close to $11 billion EBITDA at about the right conditions for '25. I think 11 times 4, I'll let you do that math, but you can get a sense of where we are performing. And then the 3% to 4% gives you a sense of where we think we'll be in 2025.

它對本季的影響約為 5 億美元，因此您可能應該將其加回去，這樣在 25 年的正確條件下，EBITDA 就接近 110 億美元。我認為是 11 乘以 4，我讓你做這個計算，但你可以了解我們的表現如何。然後，3% 到 4% 可以讓您了解我們認為 2025 年的情況。

And all of you will adjust that based on what you believe will happen with performance, and what will happen with the environment. So, I think that's probably about as good as I can do in that space.

所有人都會根據自己認為性能會發生什麼變化以及環境會發生什麼變化來調整這一點。所以，我認為這可能是我在該領域所能做到的最好的事情了。

As far as the FT article about 2 million a day, I'm just going to again be consistent with what I talked about last quarter. We continue to -- with a strategy of transitioning from an IOC to an IEC, we will diversify the business over time. We will focus on bio, EV, convenience, hydrogen and renewables. We will continue investing into this space. We will be pragmatic and we will make sure the investments we make hit our returns hurdles. And of course, at the same time, we'll be investing into hydrocarbons.

至於《金融時報》每天約 200 萬篇文章的報道，我將再次與上個季度談論的內容保持一致。我們將繼續——透過從 IOC 向 IEC 轉型的策略，隨著時間的推移，我們將實現業務多元化。我們將專注於生物、電動車、便利性、氫能和再生能源。我們將繼續投資這一領域。我們將採取務實態度，確保我們的投資能夠達到預期的回報目標。當然，同時，我們也會投資碳氫化合物。

On the hydrocarbons, 2030 is an aim, it's not a target. We estimated at around 2 million a day right now, and it will largely be determined by the long list of potential final investment decisions we have to make across '24 and '25. There are around 30 of them, some in the upstream, some in refining, some in the transition growth engines. And based on what decisions we make, that will determine the volume outcome. But what I'm really, really focused on with the organization is returns and cash flow, not volume.

對於碳氫化合物而言，2030 年是一個目標，而不是一個指標。我們目前估計每天約為 200 萬，這在很大程度上取決於我們在 24 年和 25 年必須做出的一系列潛在的最終投資決策。其中約有 30 家，有的位於上游，有的位於煉油業，有的位於轉型成長引擎。根據我們做出的決定，這將決定產量結果。但我真正關注的是組織回報和現金流，而不是數量。

So during the quarter, back to that story, again, we sanctioned on oil project in the Gulf of Mexico. And we let go 2 gas resource gas resources in the West Coast of Africa. So that tells you we're return-driven, not volume-driven. And once we're through deciding the final investment decisions over the next couple of years, we'll update you with a target for 2030 production.

因此，在本季度，回到那個故事，我們再次批准了墨西哥灣的石油項目。而我們放棄了非洲西海岸的2個天然氣資源。所以這說明我們是由回報驅動，而不是數量驅動。一旦我們確定了未來幾年的最終投資決策，我們將向您通報 2030 年的生產目標。

Could it be higher than 2 million a day? Yes. Could it be lower than 2 million a day? Yes. It's all going to be return and cash flow focused. Martijn, as I think you would hope we would be. I hope that provides enough clarity.

每天能超過200萬嗎？是的。每天會低於200萬嗎？是的。一切都將以回報和現金流為中心。 Martijn，我想你也希望我們如此。我希望這能提供足夠的清晰度。

We'll take the next question. Actually, we'll go back stage side from Roger Read at Wells Fargo. Roger?

我們將回答下一個問題。實際上，我們將從富國銀行的羅傑·里德 (Roger Read) 的後台走過去。羅傑？

Just wanted to dive back in, Murray, earlier, you mentioned diesel recession going on since you have a pretty impressive global footprint. Just wondering you could expand on that a little bit.

穆雷，我只是想再次深入探討一下，之前你提到柴油衰退正在發生，因為你在全球擁有相當令人印象深刻的影響力。我只是想知道您是否可以稍微擴展一下這一點。

And then the other question would just be, can we get a little more of an update on how things are going in the Permian with BPX, just a little more depth into the operations, what you're seeing in the way of productivity and efficiency, things like that.

然後另一個問題是，我們能否了解更多關於 BPX 在二疊紀盆地的進展情況，更深入地了解營運情況，以及您在生產力和效率方面看到的情況，諸如此類。

Sure. Kate, do you want to take diesel recession?

當然。凱特，你想承受柴油衰退嗎？

Yes. Sure. Yes. Thanks, Roger. I was out with TA actually about a month ago. We talked a lot about this. So the sector that TA has historically focused on is a sector where there are probably smaller sized truckers capturing a higher margin. As a consequence, they're probably far more sensitive to spot price. And actually, what's happened in the spot freight rate over the last couple of years is it has declined. If these truckers are being sensible, they don't drive when the economics don't make sense. So as a consequence, we've seen volumes down.

是的。當然。是的。謝謝，羅傑。事實上，大約一個月前我和 TA 一起出去過。我們對此進行了很多討論。因此，TA 歷來關注的領域是規模較小的卡車司機可能獲得更高利潤的領域。因此，他們可能對現貨價格更加敏感。事實上，過去幾年現貨運費一直在下降。如果這些卡車司機是明智的，那麼在經濟不景氣的時候他們就不會開車。因此，我們看到交易量下降。

What I would say to you, is having spoken with [Debbie] and her LT out there. They are all over how they offset that until such point as the recovery starts to kick in. And we expect currently that, that that trucking recession will probably start to mitigate towards the end of this year with a full recovery next year.

我想告訴你的是，我已經和 [Debbie] 以及她的 LT 談過了。在經濟復甦開始之前，他們都在想辦法抵銷這項影響。我們目前預計，卡車運輸業的衰退可能在今年年底開始緩解，明年將全面復甦。

So as you would expect, thereafter, streamlining their costs, they're contemplating, how to high-grade their site portfolio. And they're focused on securing some customers, which diversify their customer base into their larger fleets, where you may get slightly slimmer margins, but you've got to capture upside from the non-fuel income.

因此，正如您所期望的那樣，此後，他們在精簡成本的同時，正在考慮如何提高其網站組合的品質。他們專注於爭取一些客戶，將客戶群分散到更大的車隊中，這樣你可能會獲得稍微微薄的利潤，但你必須從非燃料收入中獲得收益。

Great. Thanks, Kate. I think on the Permian, Roger, obviously, we got our third central gathering process up online now. I think that takes our capacity for black oil up to around 100 kbd. So, I think a lot of the wells are drilled, and we should be popping them and filling that up as we move through the second quarter.

偉大的。謝謝，凱特。羅傑，我認為在二疊紀，顯然我們的第三個中央收集過程現在已經上線。我認為這會使我們的黑油產能達到約 100 kbd。因此，我認為很多井都已經鑽好了，隨著第二季度的到來，我們應該把它們挖出來並填滿。

Conditions inside the Permian, it's a little bit looser. There's -- there are more rigs available, obviously, from low natural gas prices, that's making the supply side of it a little bit better. And no real change from October on the productivity. All the recent benchmarking we're doing is showing us at the top of the pack on the productivity on NPV for drilling spend.

二疊紀內部的條件稍微鬆一點。顯然，由於天然氣價格低廉，可用的鑽機數量增加，這使得供應方面的情況有所改善。與十月相比，生產力沒有真正的改變。我們最近進行的所有基準測試都表明，我們在鑽井支出的 NPV 生產力方面處於領先地位。

So, we're proud of the team for driving that as well. We're not feeling any constraints. We're not feeling any constraints on export at this stage. And we're looking forward to getting the fourth and last central facility online mid next year. So I hope that helps. I'll be out there next week to see the guys. And next quarter, I can give you a more detailed report.

因此，我們也為推動這項進程的團隊感到自豪。我們沒有感受到任何限制。目前我們還沒有感受到出口方面有任何限制。我們期待第四個也是最後一個中央設施能夠在明年年中投入使用。我希望這會有所幫助。下週我會去那裡探望這些傢伙。下個季度，我可以向你們提供更詳細的報告。

We're actually going to jump to an online question that we've received from Alejandro at Santander, he's struggling with the phone line. Sorry about that, Alejandro. He's asking Murray and Kate about Namibia and the investment plans there after the Azule Energy announcement?

實際上，我們將直接回答桑坦德銀行的亞歷杭德羅提出的一個線上問題，他在使用電話線時遇到了困難。很抱歉，亞歷杭德羅。他向 Murray 和 Kate 詢問了納米比亞的情況以及 Azule Energy 宣布之後在那裡的投資計劃？

Yes, sure. I can take that one. So we've been in Namibia as BP for about a decade. We entered back in 2010 or 2011, drilled a couple of dry holes, unfortunately, last decade. But we've been monitoring it ever since. Given the recent success that's happened we started to look at some farm-ins. And obviously, we were able to farm into the block south of Galp's big discoveries with Rhino.

是的，當然。我可以接受那個。因此，我們作為 BP 公司已經在納米比亞工作了大約十年。我們於 2010 年或 2011 年進入該區域，不幸的是，過去十年鑽了幾個乾井。但我們從那時起就一直在監視它。鑑於最近的成功，我們開始考慮一些農場投資。顯然，我們能夠利用 Rhino 在 Galp 大發現的南部地區進行耕作。

We farmed in for 42%, and we chose to do it through Eni and ourselves, chose to do that through Azule, which is our West African energy company. So we're looking forward to completing that farm-in. We then move towards drilling wells later in the year. There are 2 wells to drill under our agreement and we'll see how it goes. But it's a nice little addition to Azule.

我們獲得了 42% 的股份，我們選擇透過 Eni 和我們自己進行，選擇透過我們的西非能源公司 Azule 進行。因此，我們期待完成該農場的建設。然後我們將在今年晚些時候開始鑽井。根據我們的協議，有兩口井需要鑽探，我們將看看進展如何。但它對 Azule 來說是一個不錯的小補充。

It's got a great growth profile inside Angola to the end of the decade. And cross fingers, if we get some discoveries, it gives legs for another 10 or 20 years. So we'll see how the drilling goes. You can never count on these things, but it looks like it's in a nice postcode. Craig, back to you.

到本世紀末，它在安哥拉國內將擁有良好的成長前景。祈禱我們能取得一些發現，讓我們能夠再堅持 10 年或 20 年。我們將觀察鑽探的進展。你永遠無法指望這些事情，但它看起來位於一個不錯的郵遞區號區。克雷格，回到你身邊。

We'll take the next question from Christyan Malek at JPMorgan. Christyan?

我們將回答摩根大通的 Christyan Malek 提出的下一個問題。克里斯蒂安？

2 questions, please. First, just on the cost savings. I have to congratulate you continue to drive efficiencies. My only sort of kind of just a question around growth, is your liquids growth in '26, back to that sort of theme. Why aren't you thinking all framing in the same way you're doing costs, but more in an upcycle view of you to consolidate or scale up your liquids given your constructive outlook? It strikes me as sort of a very bare market to continue to focus on cost, albeit that's absolutely necessary.

請問 2 個問題。首先，只是為了節省成本。我必須祝賀你繼續提高效率。我唯一想問的是關於成長的問題，就是 26 年液體的成長情況，回到這個主題。為什麼您不以計算成本的相同方式思考所有框架，而是更多地從上升週期的角度來鞏固或擴大您的液體，並給出建設性的觀點？在我看來，繼續關注成本會導致市場變得非常空虛，儘管這是絕對必要的。

So I just wanted to hear more about your liquids plan, particularly given the U.S. consolidation that we're seeing? And how do you frame that on a medium-term basis, given we are after all talking about 2026?

所以我只是想聽聽您關於液體燃料計劃的更多信息，特別是考慮到我們所看到的美國整合？鑑於我們談論的畢竟是 2026 年，您如何從中期角度來規劃這一目標？

And the second question is around low carbon and trading. Is there a plan or thinking about being more explicit around those businesses in terms of breaking them up to show your cash flow pathway? Clearly, trading is more challenging given it's more discrete, but on the low carbon side, so I just understand better what the free cash flow trajectory will be on a medium-term basis, as we start to think about drawing a part through EBITDA targets?

第二個問題是關於低碳和交易。是否有計劃或想法更明確地將這些業務拆分以顯示您的現金流量路徑？顯然，由於交易更加離散，因此更具挑戰性，但在低碳方面，因此當我們開始考慮透過 EBITDA 目標來劃分時，我更了解中期自由現金流軌跡會是什麼樣的？

Great. Kate, do you want to lead off with disclosures on low carbon trading?

偉大的。凱特，你想先談談低碳交易的揭露嗎？

Yes. So thanks Christyan. So the low carbon trading is, obviously, included in our trading numbers. It's also included in our transition growth engine disclosures when we make those at the half year and the full year. But we won't be breaking those out beyond the 5 transition growth engines, I think there's enough complexity in that disclosure as it is already.

是的。所以感謝 Christyan。因此，低碳交易顯然包含在我們的交易數據中。當我們在半年和全年進行轉型成長引擎揭露時，它也包含在我們的轉型成長引擎揭露中。但我們不會將這 5 個轉型成長引擎以外的因素單獨列出，我認為這種揭露本身已經足夠複雜了。

And on liquid side, Christyan, I guess, in our Denver presentation to you, back in October, we talked about a pretty resilient oil portfolio with the capacity to grow production through 2027 by 2% to 3%. As we look at our sanctions moving forward, from sanctions in the Middle East to sanctions in the East Coast of Canada to Brazil to the Gulf of Mexico to the North Sea, potentially to Azule and Aker BP, we have an awful lot of oil in the portfolio. And as we make those sanctions, that would give us more duration to grow the oil business as well beyond 2027. But I can't really commit to that until I'm clear, about which sanctions we move forward.

至於流動性方面，克里斯蒂安，我想，早在 10 月我們在丹佛向您做的演示中，我們就談到了一個相當有彈性的石油投資組合，到 2027 年，其產量有能力增長 2% 至 3%。當我們展望未來的製裁時，從中東的製裁到加拿大東海岸、巴西、墨西哥灣、北海的製裁，甚至可能到阿祖爾和阿克爾英國石油公司的製裁，我們的投資組合中有大量石油。當我們實施這些制裁時，我們將有更多時間在 2027 年後發展石油業務。但在我明確我們將採取哪些制裁措施之前，我無法做出承諾。

I think on the question of do you want to go buy, I'm a countercyclical human being, with low carbon energy in the doldrums right now, now is the time to go countercyclical. That's why we're doing Lightsource bp at a countercyclical moment in time. And watch this space, we may do some more things over the coming years in the countercyclical environment.

我認為關於你是否想去購買的問題，我是一個逆週期的人，現在低碳能源處於低迷狀態，現在是逆週期的時候了。這就是我們在反週期時刻進行 Lightsource bp 的原因。關注這個領域，未來幾年我們可能會在逆週期環境中做更多的事情。

On the oil side, with oil at $85 or $90, I'm not sure it's the right time to be buying oil. We might consider some bolt-ons, but we just -- we'd prefer to be countercyclical rather than pro-cyclical. And we do have some pretty strong growth as we look forward, especially relative to the competition, especially in the high-margin basins of the OECD.

就石油方面而言，當石油價格達到每桶85美元或90美元時，我不確定現在是否是購買石油的最佳時機。我們可能會考慮一些附加措施，但我們只是——我們更願意逆週期而不是順週期。展望未來，我們確實取得了相當強勁的成長，尤其是相對於競爭對手，特別是在經合組織的高利潤盆地。

So, I feel okay where we are right now. I don't want to do high-price acquisitions and instead I'll go countercyclical with scarce cash where counter-cyclicality exists. I hope that helps Christyan?

所以，我覺得我們現在的狀況還不錯。我不想進行高價收購，而是在有反週期因素的地方利用稀缺的現金進行反週期投資。我希望這對 Christyan 有幫助？

We'll go to Irene Himona at Bernstein next. Irene?

接下來我們將前往伯恩斯坦拜訪艾琳希莫娜 (Irene Himona)。艾琳？

My first question, Murray, going back to the $2 billion cost savings. You did mention, I believe, 8% cash cost inflation on that $22 billion cost base. So I wonder, should we think of the $2 billion reduction target as partly or wholly removing that inflationary impact and leaving the underlying cost base flat, would you say?

我的第一個問題，穆雷，回到 20 億美元的成本節省問題。我相信，您確實提到過，在 220 億美元的成本基礎上，現金成本通膨率為 8%。所以我想知道，我們是否應該將 20 億美元的削減目標視為部分或全部消除通膨影響並使基礎成本保持平穩，您認為呢？

And then secondly, on convenience. I mean, your convenience gross margin grew 62% in 2023 for an increase in site numbers of about 19%. So I wanted to ask so far in '24, are you seeing similarly fast improvements in that convenience margin? Or faster, slower, where do we stand?

其次，關於便利性。我的意思是，到 2023 年，便利商店的毛利率將增加 62%，而門市數量將增加約 19%。所以我想問一下，到目前為止，在 24 年裡，您是否看到便利性方面有同樣快速的改善？或者更快，更慢，我們處於什麼位置？

Yes. I think on the $2 billion in cost savings, Irene, our intent is to drive that through the business and drive that down to free cash flow delivery. So eating inflation is how I think about these things. And that's why we say at least $2 billion, maybe something above that takes us to beat inflation. But I'd like to try to beat inflation. Especially, as that's starting to mitigate if we look at all -- what all the Central Banks are telling us these days. So I would like to drive that through to bottom line cash flow delivery, and that certainly as a leadership team, we'll be working towards moving forward.

是的。艾琳，我認為，關於 20 億美元的成本節約，我們的目的是透過業務來推動這一目標，並將其轉化為自由現金流交付。所以，我對這些事情的看法是，消化通貨膨脹。這就是為什麼我們說至少要 20 億美元，也許超過這個數字就能讓我們戰勝通貨膨脹。但我想嘗試戰勝通貨膨脹。尤其是，如果我們看一下最近所有中央銀行告訴我們的情況，這種情況就開始減輕了。因此，我希望將其轉化為底線現金流，並且作為領導團隊，我們一定會努力向前邁進。

Kate, do you want to tackle the convenience GM question?

凱特，你想解決方便 GM 的問題嗎？

Yes, thanks Irene. Yes, in terms of convenience, so year-on-year, if you look at 1Q versus 1Q, 2023, you're seeing a significant impact there with regard to TA, obviously, which we acquired last year. That just opened its 300th site, so it's driving significant volume.

是的，謝謝艾琳。是的，就便利性而言，如果您比較 2023 年第一季與第二季度，您會看到 TA 產生了顯著的影響，顯然，這是我們去年收購的。該公司剛剛開設了第 300 個站點，因此其業務量非常可觀。

What I would say on gross margin, if you exclude TA, we're seeing between 9% and 10% per annum growth in our gross margin year-on-year. So that's what gives us confidence with regard to convenience delivery.

關於毛利率，如果不包括 TA，我們的毛利率將年增 9% 至 10%。因此，這讓我們對便利配送充滿信心。

We'll take the next question from Lucas Herrmann at BNP. Lucas?

我們將回答法國巴黎銀行的盧卡斯·赫爾曼提出的下一個問題。盧卡斯？

And a couple, one is very straightforward. Just on the share count and the reduction this quarter. The buybacks, obviously been $1.75 billion, share count reductions, just over $130 million. I presume that the absence of a greater reduction is, because you've issued a lot of stock with employees. The benefits of or not the benefits. But -- and so we'll see more material sums go out on buyback than the $1.75 billion or so you're indicating for future quarters. That was the first.

還有一對，一個非常直率。僅關於本季的股票數量和減少情況。回購金額顯然為 17.5 億美元，而股票數量減少則略高於 1.3 億美元。我推測沒有大幅減薪是因為你們已經向員工發放了大量股票。有好處或沒好處。但是——因此，我們將看到用於回購的資金比您預測的未來幾季的 17.5 億美元左右還要多。這是第一次。

And the second was almost, yes, congratulations, you've achieved 30% growth on your 2022 Permian or your 2022 BPX numbers already. Does make this number seem rather modest, shall we say. But I think more importantly, Murray, can you just comment on the profile we should expect for liquids as you move through 2025 --

第二個幾乎是，是的，恭喜，您已經實現了 2022 年二疊紀或 2022 年 BPX 數字 30% 的增長。可以說，這個數字確實顯得相當適中。但我認為更重要的是，穆雷，您能否評論一下到 2025 年我們應該對液體燃料的預期情況——

For BPX?

對於 BPX？

-- from the startup of -- yes, for BPX?

——從啟動之初——是的，對 BPX 來說？

Yes.

是的。

As you said, I mean, you're adding 100,000 barrels a day of liquids capacity, but nothing like that as yet coming through in the numbers, obviously, Bingo or whatever has just started. Just give me some better sense of where you think liquids will actually be at the end of the period.

正如你所說，我的意思是，你每天增加 10 萬桶液體輸送能力，但目前還沒有從數字上體現出來，顯然，「賓果」或其他什麼才剛開始。請讓我更了解一下您認為在這段時間結束時液體實際上會在哪裡。

Great. Okay. Fantastic. Kate, you want to take the first one, I'll take second.

偉大的。好的。極好的。凱特，你想拿第一個，我要第二個。

Yes, sure. So you look, just on employee share dilution, we haven't even made any disclosures yet with regard to the impact on 2024. If you look back over the last couple of years, I think 2022 was around $500 million, and it was just over $670 million last year. It's probably going to be of an order of magnitude in the same kind of ballpark for 2024.

是的，當然。所以你看，僅就員工股份稀釋而言，我們甚至還沒有就其對 2024 年的影響做出任何披露。如果回顧過去幾年，我認為 2022 年約為 5 億美元，而去年略高於 6.7 億美元。到 2024 年，這一數量級可能仍將處於相同的水平。

But obviously, it's going to depend on share price and actually, when employees actually decide to exercise their options, that will drive a level of impact, and we don't have that level of clarity at this point. We'll update you as we step through the year.

但顯然，這將取決於股價，實際上，當員工真​​正決定行使他們的選擇權時，這將產生一定程度的影響，而我們目前還沒有那麼明確的認知。我們將隨著今年的進展向您通報最新情況。

And you would expect to offset that dilution.

並且您希望抵消這種稀釋。

The intention to offset, right?

有抵消的意思吧？

Yes.

是的。

Yes, over time.

是的，隨著時間的推移。

Yes. We will offset over time as you say Lucas. So good eagle eye catch. As far as the BPX liquids profile goes, you're building up the profile from somewhere between 100 and 120 kbd depending on reservoir responsiveness in the Permian by 2025, assuming the fourth facility comes online. As well, we're expanding -- we've got most of our rigs focused on the liquid window in the Eagle Ford right now given where natural gas prices are.

是的。正如盧卡斯所說，我們會隨著時間的推移而抵消。鷹眼捕捉得真好。就 BPX 液體概況而言，假設第四個設施投入使用，則可以根據二疊紀到 2025 年的儲層回應情況，從 100 到 120 kbd 之間建立概況。此外，我們正在擴張——考慮到天然氣價格，我們目前將大部分鑽機集中在 Eagle Ford 的液體窗口上。

So there should be an uplift there. I don't have a number at my fingertips. But I can make sure we get that for next quarter. Lucas, if you ask the question again. So there is strong liquids growth as we go across BPX through 2024 and into 2025.

因此那裡應該會出現提升。我手頭上沒有確切的數字。但我可以確保我們在下個季度實現這一目標。盧卡斯，如果你再問這個問題。因此，當我們穿越 BPX 到 2024 年並進入 2025 年時，液體燃料將出現強勁增長。

We'll take the next question from Peter Low at Redburn. Peter?

我們將回答 Redburn 的 Peter Low 提出的下一個問題。彼得？

Actually another question on BPX production, but this time on the gas side, kind of your gas volumes are still growing quite strongly. A lot of other producers in North America kind of scaling that production. Does that simply reflect your hedging position? Or could you talk a bit about kind of why that growth is coming through in such a weak gas price environment?

實際上，這是關於 BPX 生產的另一個問題，但這次是在天然氣方面，你們的天然氣產量仍在強勁增長。北美的許多其他生產商也在擴大生產規模。這是否僅僅反映了您的對沖頭寸？或者您能否談談為什麼在如此疲軟的天然氣價格環境下仍能實現這種成長？

And then just a quick one. Are you able to quantify the impact of price lag effects in the Gulf of Mexico and the UAE on the P&O results in the quarter?

然後就簡單說一下。您能否量化墨西哥灣和阿聯酋的價格滯後效應對本季 P&O 業績的影響？

Okay. Kate, do you want to do the price lag and I'll come back to gas profile.

好的。凱特，你想了解價格滯後嗎？我會回到天然氣概況。

Yes, sure. On price lag, the impact in the quarter was about 0.4, pretty much what we said it was going to be in the trading statement, so we're in line with that.

是的，當然。就價格滯後而言，本季的影響約為 0.4，與我們在交易聲明中所說的差不多，因此我們與此一致。

Thank you. On the gas profile, you're right, we've hedged out natural gas at around $4 through '23 and '24. So obviously, we've kept that going while we've got those hedges in place.

謝謝。關於天然氣概況，您說得對，到 23 年和 24 年，我們已經以大約 4 美元的價格對沖了天然氣。顯然，我們在設定這些對沖的同時，也一直保持這種狀態。

We've started to reduce rig count right now and point it more to the liquids levels of the Eagle Ford, as I talked about. So you're just doing retention drilling inside the Haynesville. I think what I'd say is the Haynesville is prolific, where we drill and the amount of production that comes online and is sustainable is quite high per well. We're in absolutely the best spot of the Haynesville, through the BHP acquisition. And the teams have really got their capital efficiency down. They've really got their frac structuring down to make sure that we get fabulous production out of these wells.

正如我所說，我們現在已經開始減少鑽機數量，並將其更多地指向鷹福特的液位。所以你只是在 Haynesville 內部進行保留鑽探。我想說的是，海恩斯維爾的產量很高，我們在那裡鑽探，而且每口井的產量和可持續性都相當高。透過收購必和必拓，我們絕對處於海恩斯維爾的最佳位置。這些團隊的資本效率確實降低了。他們確實已經掌握了壓裂結構，以確保我們從這些油井中獲得豐厚的產量。

So I think that's what's explaining the growth so far. And then, of course, we've got a choice as we move into 2025 based on what we see on gas pricing about whether or not we ramp the gas drilling back up or we stick with liquids and oil. All I'd say is we'll be very, very value-driven. We won't be volume-driven, and we'll see where the best value, is and then apply our rig count at that rate. So I hope that helps, Peter.

所以我認為這就是迄今為止的成長原因。當然，到了 2025 年，我們可以根據天然氣價格狀況做出選擇，是增加天然氣鑽探量還是繼續使用液體和石油。我想說的是，我們將非常非常注重價值。我們不會受產量驅動，我們會找到最佳價值，然後按照該速率應用我們的鑽機數量。所以我希望這會有所幫助，彼得。

Next question from Kim Fustier, HSBC. Kim?

下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Kim Fustier。金？

Firstly, on CapEx, you said $16 billion of CapEx guidance is now evenly spread over the year as opposed to weighted to the first half. I just wondered if there had been any project slippage to the right?

首先，關於資本支出，您說 160 億美元的資本支出指引現在是平均分佈在全年，而不是集中在上半年。我只是想知道是否有任何項目向右滑動？

And then secondly, sorry for going back to the $2 billion cost savings. But I think you said some of those cost savings will have associated restructuring charges. I wondered if you could provide any detail on the kinds of areas where you might incur such charges. Is this related, for instance, to headcount reductions?

其次，很抱歉再次提到 20 億美元的成本節約。但我認為您說過其中一些成本節約將產生相關的重組費用。我想知道您是否可以提供關於在哪些領域可能會產生此類費用的詳細資訊。例如，這是否與裁員有關？

And is the $2 billion figure net of those restructuring costs, or is it going to be lower than $2 billion after those restructuring costs?

20 億美元這個數字是扣除重組成本後的淨額嗎？還是扣除重組成本後會低於 20 億美元？

Great. Kate, do you want to tackle both of those?

偉大的。凱特，你想解決這兩個問題嗎？

Yes, sure. So on CapEx, we're still confident of our guidance of around $16 billion for the full year. What's happened over the course of the last couple of months is that a couple of lumpy payments that were due around the back end of the second quarter have just tipped over into the beginning of the third quarter. And we just wanted to make sure that you'd got line of sight to the fact that it probably wasn't so heavily focused on the first half compared to the second half. It's a little bit more evenly now spread around the remaining quarters of the year.

是的，當然。因此，就資本支出而言，我們仍然對全年約 160 億美元的預期目標充滿信心。過去幾個月發生的情況是，原本應在第二季末支付的幾筆大額款項，現在卻拖到了第三季初。我們只是想確保你能意識到，與下半場相比，它可能並沒有那麼關注上半場。現在，它在一年剩餘的季度中的分佈更加均勻了。

With regard to [RATX], we'll update you in due course as we get clear on the implications of that. At the moment, we are allowing each business and function to work on their own plans to deliver efficiencies. And as we said, some of that will have some RATX associated with it, but not all of it. And as we get clear on the scale of the numbers and when we report them, we'll update you.

關於 [RATX]，一旦我們清楚其影響，我們會及時向您通報最新情況。目前，我們允許每個企業和職能部門制定自己的計劃以提高效率。正如我們所說，其中一些會與一些 RATX 相關，但不是全部。當我們明確數字規模並報告時，我們會及時向您通報。

We will take the next question from Menno Hulshof at TD Cowen. Menno, over to you.

我們將回答 TD Cowen 的 Menno Hulshof 提出的下一個問題。門諾，交給你了。

So the first is on the simplification of the org structure. You've clearly made significant headway already, but where do you think you stand in that process?

首先是簡化組織架構。您顯然已經取得了重大進展，但您認為自己在這個過程中處於什麼位置？

And then the second is yet another follow-up on the $2 billion target, and apologies if you talked about this already. But can we get a rough breakdown on how much each of the 4 initiatives is expected to contribute and whether achievement of the $2 billion is expected to be fairly linear over the next 2.5 years?

第二個問題是有關 20 億美元目標的後續問題，如果您已經討論過這個問題，我很抱歉。但是，我們能否粗略地計算出這四項舉措預計分別將貢獻多少，以及在未來 2.5 年內實現 20 億美元的目標是否有望相當線性？

Sure. Why don't I tackle both of those since I gave you the last 2 ones. Kate, I'll give you a relief. You should think about the 4 cost initiatives each delivering around a 1/4 of the benefit. It may end up being different than that, but that's a good estimate for right now.

當然。既然我已經給了你最後兩個問題，為什麼我不解決這兩個問題呢？凱特，我會讓你鬆一口氣。您應該考慮 4 項成本計劃，每項計劃可帶來約 1/4 的收益。最終結果可能有所不同，但就目前而言這是一個很好的估計。

And as far as the linear nature, we said it's by the back end of '26, and it will take time to do some of these things. So, I wouldn't count on much impact in '24 and '25. It should be coming in through '26 as we work our way through it.

至於線性性質，我們說這是在 26 年的後期，並且完成其中一些事情需要時間。所以，我不會期待 24 年和 25 年會產生太大的影響。隨著我們不斷努力，它應該會在 26 年到來。

On org structure itself, we have announced the first stage of simplification. There will be multiple steps along the way, maybe 2 or 3 steps is how I'm thinking about it. We have reduced my direct reports down to 10. We've combined some functions inside the organization as well. Those need to be well managed. We have to have very, very strong management of chain, as we go through this and make sure that safety is paramount as we do it. And we expect in due course to announce another set of simplification steps to try to make the place easier to work in maybe around year-end, we'll see that next step. So that's what's happening on simplification inside the company. Craig, back to you.

就組織結構本身而言，我們已經宣告了第一階段的簡化。這一路上將會有多個步驟，我考慮的可能是 2 到 3 個步驟。我們已將我的直屬下屬減少到 10 人。我們也合併了組織內部的一些職能。這些都需要妥善管理。我們必須對鏈條進行非常非常嚴格的管理，並確保在執行過程中安全至關重要。我們預計將在適當的時候宣布另一套簡化措施，以使該場所更容易工作，大概在年底左右，我們將看到下一步。這就是公司內部簡化的情況。克雷格，回到你身邊。

3 questions left. We'll take the first one from Henry Tarr at Berenberg.

還剩 3 個問題。我們將從貝倫貝格 (Berenberg) 的亨利·塔爾 (Henry Tarr) 那裡獲取第一個答案。

2 quickly, one on the outlook for U.S. offshore wind at this point and your Beacon Wind project, how are you thinking about offshore wind broadly in the U.S. and that project moving forward?

2 快速回答一個問題，關於目前美國離岸風電的前景以及您的 Beacon Wind 項目，您如何看待美國離岸風電以及該項目的未來發展？

And then just coming back to a comment about the potential to be countercyclical in low carbon, where do you see sort of attractive returns today in low carbon either within your own business or sort of externally where might you be looking across that space?

然後回到關於低碳逆週期潛力的評論，您認為目前低碳領域有哪些有吸引力的回報，無論是在您自己的企業內部還是在外部，您可能會關注哪些領域？

Great, Henry. I think on -- I'll tackle both of these. I think on Beacon, look, we're going slow on that one. Infrastructure needs to develop off the Northeast Coast of the U.S. We need to see some changes in pricing mechanisms moving forward so that we can move -- more to an integrated model like we see in Europe. And it's hard to predict at what pace that will happen. But I think on Beacon will be going slow, I think, is what I'd say for now.

太好了，亨利。我想——我會解決這兩個問題。我認為在 Beacon 上，看，我們在這方面進展緩慢。美國東北海岸需要發展基礎建設。我們需要看到定價機制發生一些變化，以便我們能夠轉向像歐洲那樣的綜合模式。並且很難預測這一進程將以何種速度發生。但我認為 Beacon 的發展將會很慢，我想，這就是我現在要說的。

As far as countercyclical, I'll have to be careful on this one because the second I say anything about it, I'll have too much competition. So, I think what I'd say is, you know the -- you know my hierarchy of returns on the growth engines from biogas to biofuel to convenience to electrification are the places that are quite interesting to me. And you can figure out what the countercyclical moment might be inside some of those based on what's been happening recently.

就逆週期而言，我必須對此保持謹慎，因為一旦我談論此事，我就會面臨太多的競爭。所以，我想說的是，你知道——你知道我對成長引擎的回報等級從沼氣到生物燃料到便利到電氣化都是我非常感興趣的地方。你可以根據最近發生的情況，找出其中的一些逆週期因素。

And I'll stop myself saying any more than that because my mergers and acquisitions team might shoot me if I say any more. So I hope that gave you enough hints Henry to think about. And in due course, you'll see or you won't see announcements, let's see.

我不會再說這些了，因為如果我再說下去，我的併購團隊可能會開槍打死我。所以我希望這能給你足夠的提示，亨利，供你思考。在適當的時候，你會看到或不會看到公告，讓我們拭目以待。

I think, Henry, just to reiterate, obviously, we've laid out our CapEx guidance organic and inorganic in totality. So there's not any leakage.

亨利，我想，只是重申一下，顯然，我們已經全面列出了我們的有機和無機資本支出指導。所以沒有任何洩漏。

CEO doesn't get to spend more than 16, and that was code from Craig.

執行長的支出不能超過 16 美元，這是 Craig 的規定。

I said IR, sorry. Thank you, boss. And then the last question -- sorry, I thought there was 2, but the last question from Giacomo Romeo at Jefferies. Giacomo, thanks for being patient.

我說的是 IR，對不起。謝謝老闆。然後是最後一個問題——抱歉，我以為有兩個問題，但最後一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Giacomo Romeo。賈科莫，感謝您的耐心。

The first question, if I can just ask again about this countercyclical. I just wanted to check with you, Murray. I think that on the Q4 call, you talked about the fact that you've done a lot of acquisitions in the previous years and you were sort of focusing more on integration. As somehow this message change or what kind of size of acquisition countercyclical deal we could expect.

第一個問題，我是否可以再問一次有關這個逆週期的問題。我只是想跟你核實一下，莫瑞。我認為在第四季度電話會議上，您談到了您在前幾年進行了大量收購，並且更加重視整合。隨著這一消息以某種方式發生變化，我們可以期待何種規模的逆週期收購交易。

The second is on the Namibia farm-in. Just trying to understand, when Azule as who was set up in '22, was always the -- was your thinking always about making it your West Africa venture? Or has this somewhat evolved over time?

第二個是關於納米比亞農場的。只是想了解一下，當 Azule 於 1922 年成立時，您是否一直想著將其作為您在西非的事業？或者說這是隨著時間的推移而有所演變的？

And just on the deal in Namibia specifically, the PEL 85 is on shallower waters than versus where other discoveries have been made. Just trying to understand what gives you confidence that the play will extend on to shallower waters?

就納米比亞的交易而言，PEL 85 位於比其他發現的水域更淺的水域。只是想了解什麼讓您有信心該劇將延伸到更淺的水域？

Yes. Let's see, on countercyclical, what I'd say is, we have a tight capital frame at $16 billion in '24 and $16 billion in '25. Last time I communicated with you, I said, we've done an awful lot of acquisitions from TA to Archaea, to Lightsource to EDF and it's time to bring -- now bring the synergies out of these. And I gave you a caveat saying, however, we will consider 1 or 2 more of these things moving forward.

是的。讓我們看看，在逆週期方面，我想說的是，我們的資本框架緊張，24 年為 160 億美元，25 年為 160 億美元。上次我與您溝通時，我說過，我們已經進行了大量收購，從 TA 到 Archaea，從 Lightsource 到 EDF，現在是時候發揮這些公司的協同效應了。不過，我提前告訴你們，我們會考慮再做一兩件事。

So, I'm not out of line with what I said in February, and what I said in the previous quarter, Giacomo. I'm in line with that. It's one or 2 opportunities that we see over the next couple of years. And I guess, the point was more I'm not going procyclical in oil, I think countercyclical and transition while prices are low. And let's see if we can actually prosecute anything.

所以，我二月說的話和上一季說的話並沒有出入，賈科莫。我同意這一點。這是我們在未來幾年看到的一兩個機會。我想，重點在於我不會順週期地投資石油，我認為在價格低迷時，我會採取逆週期和轉型的方式。讓我們看看是否真的可以起訴任何事情。

Kate, do you want to talk about origins of Azule, I can tackle the geology question.

凱特，你想談談 Azule 的起源嗎？我可以解決地質問題。

Yes, sure. So I mean, when Azule was set up with DE&I, it was a great marriage of assets, ours were later life generating significant cash and E&I were earlier like. So it was a very nice symbiotic relationship, very similar to the one we created with Aker BP. And since we formed it, we've taken just over $5 billion of distributions.

是的，當然。所以我的意思是，當 Azule 與 DE&I 成立時，這是一次偉大的資產結合，我們的資產後來產生了大量現金，而 E&I 早期也是如此。所以這是一種非常好的共生關係，與我們與 Aker BP 建立的關係非常相似。自我們成立以來，我們已經獲得了超過 50 億美元的分配。

A couple of points I'd say on the finances with regard to Azule and Namibia is it has been set up to be a self-funded vehicle and to continue to distribute back to its shareholders. For the first part of Namibia, it's 2 exploration wells. Let's see what happens with that. Don't expect a material impact on the distributions back to us or E&I, but let's see what happens with those.

關於 Azule 和納米比亞的財務狀況，我想說的幾點是，它已被設立為一個自籌資金的工具，並將繼續向其股東分配。納米比亞第一部分有2口探勘井。讓我們看看會發生什麼。不要指望這會對我們或 E&I 的分配產生重大影響，但讓我們看看會發生什麼。

If I channel my inner explorer, really water depth doesn't matter. It's what's happening subsurface. I think the interesting bid about these ones, Galp has had some discoveries. You've seen what their announcements are. When you look at the seismic on the block that we picked up from Rhino it's a direct extension of the 4 or 5 structures that are in the Galp in the gout blocks at the same geologic depth.

如果我引導內心的探索者，水深真的不重要。這就是地下發生的事情。我認為關於這些有趣的出價，Galp 已經有一些發現。您已經看到他們的公告了。當您查看我們從 Rhino 獲得的區塊地震資料時，您會發現它是 Galp 中 4 或 5 個結構的直接延伸，這些結構位於同一地質深度。

So who knows what happens with exploration. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. But there are very clear structures in the Galp block. There are very clear structures in the Rhino block. They lay in a pattern. They should have the same charge. They should have the same origin. Of course, there's geologic risk around it. But water depth really doesn't play into it.

所以誰知道探索會發生什麼。有時有效，有時無效。但 Galp 區塊的結構非常清晰。 Rhino 區塊中的結構非常清晰。它們按照一定的圖案排列。它們應該承擔相同的費用。它們應該有著相同的起源。當然，周圍存在地質風險。但水深其實並不重要。

So let's see, Giacomo. Let's see what happens. You have to drill the wells to find out what's actually down there. I think with that Craig, shall we close.

那麼讓我們看看，賈科莫。讓我們看看會發生什麼。你必須鑽井才能發現下面到底有什麼。我想，克雷格，我們就可以結束了。

So thanks, everybody, for listening to us. Another decent quarter out of BP. I'm really pleased about bringing growth to the market. So ACE getting up online in Azerbaijan, BPX expanding their operations with the third plant in the Lower 48 in the Permian, Archaea, expanding, one big plant, 5 more in commissioning and we've got great momentum around cost as well.

謝謝大家聆聽我們的發言。英國石油公司又取得了不錯的季度業績。我很高興能為市場帶來成長。因此，ACE 在阿塞拜疆上線，BPX 擴大其業務，在美國本土 48 個州的二疊紀盆地建立了第三家工廠，Archaea 也在擴建，擁有一家大型工廠，另有 5 家工廠正在調試中，我們在成本方面也取得了巨大的進展。

So I'm very optimistic about growth for BP as we look through the next couple of years and hitting our targets, and in due course, updating you about what's beyond that. So thanks very much for listening, and I look forward to chatting with you next quarter.

因此，我對 BP 未來幾年的成長非常樂觀，我們將展望未來幾年並實現我們的目標，並在適當的時候向您通報未來的發展。非常感謝您的聆聽，我期待下個季度與您交談。