英國石油 (BP) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Well, thanks everyone for joining BP's first quarter 2024 results call today. As you'll be aware, we introduced our quarterly trading statement this quarter. And this morning also published the slides, and script along with a video presentation in conjunction with our stock exchange announcement.

好的，感謝大家今天參加 BP 2024 年第一季業績電話會議。如您所知，我們本季推出了季度交易報表。今天早上也結合我們的證券交易所公告發布了幻燈片、腳本以及視訊演示。

Alongside this, the results call has moved to early afternoon U.K. time, and we hope, together, these updates around our process and disclosures has been helpful to everyone and you've had a chance to review everything this morning and this afternoon.

除此之外，結果電話會議已移至英國時間下午早些時候，我們希望，有關我們的流程和披露的這些更新對每個人都有幫助，並且您有機會回顧今天早上和今天下午的所有內容。

So, we're going to aim to finish the call at 2:00 p.m. U.K. time. As some of you will be aware, we understand our counterparts at Saudi Aramco start their call around that time and we want to give you a chance to join that as required.

因此，我們的目標是在下午 2:00 結束通話。英國時間。正如你們中的一些人所知，我們了解沙特阿美公司的同行在那時開始打電話，我們希望給你一個機會根據需要加入。

So maybe let me start there and on that note, hand over to Murray for a few brief opening remarks.

因此，也許讓我從這裡開始，請莫瑞做一些簡短的開場白。

Good, thanks Craig and thanks everyone for joining Kate and I on the call today. To recap today's results, we delivered resilient financial performance despite the unplanned outage at our Whiting refinery. First quarter adjusted EBITDA was $10.3 billion and underlying earnings were $2.7 billion.

好的，謝謝克雷格，也謝謝大家今天加入凱特和我的電話會議。回顧今天的業績，儘管我們的懷廷煉油廠發生了計劃外停運，但我們仍實現了富有彈性的財務業績。第一季調整後 EBITDA 為 103 億美元，基本獲利為 27 億美元。

Adjusting for the expected seasonal working capital build, operating cash flow was $7.4 billion in the quarter. We continue to make good strategic progress, and this quarter saw the safe start-up of the Azeri Central East project in the Caspian Sea.

根據預期的季節性營運資本建設進行調整後，本季營運現金流為 74 億美元。我們持續取得良好的策略進展，本季里海阿塞拜疆中東專案安全啟動。

BPX also brought online Checkmate, our third central processing facility. And in biogas, Archaea brought online its largest modular RNG plant to-date and has 5 in commissioning. Last week, our JV Azule announced a 42.5% farm-in into an exploration block in the Orange basin offshore Namibia.

BPX 還引入了線上 Checkmate，這是我們的第三個中央處理設施。在沼氣領域，Archaea 推出了迄今為止最大的模組化 RNG 工廠，並有 5 座正在調試中。上週，我們的合資企業 Azule 宣布將 42.5% 的股份轉入納米比亞近海奧蘭治盆地的一個勘探區塊。

You've also heard about how we are simplifying, removing complexity across the company and today we have announced a target to deliver at least $2 billion of cash cost savings by the end of 2026.

您也聽說過我們如何在整個公司內進行簡化、消除複雜性，今天我們宣布了在 2026 年底節省至少 20 億美元現金成本的目標。

Craig, back to you.

克雷格，回到你身邊。

Super, thanks, Murray. So we'll go straight to questions now and we'll take the first question from Josh Stone at UBS. Josh?

超級，謝謝，穆雷。因此，我們現在直接開始提問，我們將回答瑞銀 (UBS) 喬許史東 (Josh Stone) 提出的第一個問題。喬許？

And appreciate the slightly longer time to study the results. Yes, 2 questions please. First, I want to pick up on your 2025 EBITDA targets which you reiterated specifically in the TGEs of $3 billion to $4 billion. If I look at consensus, it feels like few people believe in these numbers and it's only now almost 18 months away.

並感謝稍微長一點的時間來研究結果。是的，請提 2 個問題。首先，我想談談您在 30 億至 40 億美元的 TGE 中特別重申的 2025 年 EBITDA 目標。如果我看共識，我感覺很少人相信這些數字，而且現在距離實現這一目標只有近 18 個月了。

So yes, if I look at how the business has started, the buyer business looks like it started a bit lower than you might have expected. You talk about TA was impacted by an ongoing recession of freight in the U.S. So my question is, where do you see the biggest risk in these 2025 targets and what do you think the market is missing on that side?

所以，是的，如果我看看業務是如何開始的，買家業務的起步速度似乎比你預期的要低。您談到 TA 受到美國貨運持續衰退的影響。

And then the second question on the Whiting refinery, good to see back online. Maybe now the dust has settled. Can you just talk about what lessons you've learned from the outage and maybe some initiatives you've put in place to prevent further issues going forward?

然後是關於懷廷煉油廠的第二個問題，很高興在網路上看到。也許現在塵埃落定了。您能否談談您從這次中斷中吸取了哪些教訓，以及您為防止進一步出現問題而採取的一些措施？

Yes, sure Josh. Thanks for the questions. I'll take both of these actually. I think on Whiting it's a bit too early for lessons learned. The teams had a full electrical outage at Whiting. It took us about 6 weeks to get it back operating safely. The teams have now done that. Well, done to the teams for achieving that. And they're now going through the process of lessons learned probably in the design space. So that is still work to do.

是的，當然是喬希。感謝您的提問。實際上我會接受這兩個。我認為在懷廷身上吸取教訓還為時過早。懷廷隊遭遇全面停電。我們花了大約 6 週的時間才使它恢復安全運作。現在團隊已經做到了這一點。好吧，對於實現這一目標的團隊來說，已經完成了。他們現在正在經歷可能在設計領域吸取教訓的過程。所以這仍然是我們要做的工作。

As far as EBITDA from the transition growth engines, as we reported last year, we made about $1 billion of EBITDA. We're aiming for $3 billion to $4 billion of EBITDA by 2025. Where does that come from? A full year of TA, continued growth out of Archaea, it comes from EV moving to breakeven. It comes from real focus inside hydrogen as we focus the portfolio and move to the most likely things to move forward, and it comes from growing bio and growing convenience as well.

就轉型成長引擎帶來的 EBITDA 而言，正如我們去年報導的那樣，我們實現了約 10 億美元的 EBITDA。我們的目標是到 2025 年實現 30 億至 40 億美元的 EBITDA。一整年的 TA，Archaea 的持續成長，來自電動車走向損益平衡。它來自我們對氫的真正關注，因為我們專注於產品組合併轉向最有可能向前發展的事物，它也來自於不斷增長的生物和不斷增長的便利性。

I think on the confidence side, C&M continues to grow very strongly. We continue to see 9% year-on-year growth and with the expansion in TA, that should be very, very good for convenience. EV remains on track. I think the number is 93%. 83% of all the fast chargers are EBITDA positive now. So Richard and the team are doing a good job driving that engine to breakeven.

我認為從信心方面來看，C&M 持續強勁成長。我們繼續看到 9% 的同比增長，並且隨著 TA 的擴張，這應該非常非常方便。電動車仍走在正軌上。我認為這個數字是93%。目前，83% 的快速充電樁的 EBITDA 為正值。因此，理查德和他的團隊在推動該引擎實現盈虧平衡方面做得很好。

Archaea continues to get plants online. As I said, we got a big one online in 1Q, and we're commissioning 5 as we speak. So we should be in good shape for the $15 million to $20 million and RIN prices are holding very high for the D3 RINs in the United States as well.

古細菌繼續將植物在線化。正如我所說，我們在第一季上線了一個大型項目，目前我們正在調試 5 個項目。因此，對於 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元，我們應該處於良好狀態，而且美國 D3 RIN 的 RIN 價格也保持在非常高的水平。

On the challenging side, bio, as everybody knows, the bio margins in Europe were tricky through 4Q and 1Q as mandates were rolled back across some of the Scandinavian countries. We do expect a change on that in the future, but it's hard to predict. It's kind of like a macro assumption that's hard to predict. And diesel, as you say, is challenging in the United States. There's a diesel recession.

在充滿挑戰的方面，眾所周知，生物領域的利潤率在第四季度和第一季非常棘手，因為一些斯堪的納維亞國家的強制要求被取消。我們確實預計未來會發生變化，但這很難預測。這有點像是很難預測的宏觀假設。正如你所說，柴油在美國面臨挑戰。柴油經濟衰退。

We feel that will unwind as well as we move towards the back end of the year and into 2025 as well. But we feel confident on the 3 to 4 and we'll just have to see how that goes, but good momentum operationally, good momentum on synergies. And the macro is what we're fighting against a little bit right now. But let's see how that macro turns out. Thanks for your question, Josh.

我們認為，隨著我們進入今年年底和 2025 年，這種情況將會緩解。但我們對 3 到 4 充滿信心，我們只需要看看進展如何，但營運勢頭良好，協同效應勢頭良好。宏觀是我們現在正在對抗的一點。但讓我們看看這個宏的結果如何。謝謝你的問題，喬許。

Thanks, Josh. We'll turn to Biraj Borkhataria, RBC. Biraj?

謝謝，喬許。我們將求助於加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的 Biraj Borkhataria。比拉傑？

And appreciate the more condensed format. The first one is just on the cost cutting. When I look at the public disclosures across you and your peers, if I take SG&A, for example, it does look like your figures are quite out of sync. It seems like they're growing faster than the peer group. And I can't really tell if it's all accounted for the same or not.

並欣賞更簡潔的格式。第一個是關於成本削減。當我查看您和您的同行的公開揭露資訊時，如果我以 SG&A 為例，您的資料看起來確實非常不同步。他們的成長速度似乎比同齡人快。我真的無法判斷這一切是否都是一樣的。

I guess, in your slide, you do some adjustments here. So maybe the question is, when you benchmark your costs and your performance, what is the starting position for BP? Is it that today you're better than average or you're slightly worse? And particularly, where do you see the opportunity there?

我想，在你的幻燈片中，你在這裡做了一些調整。所以也許問題是，當你對成本和績效進行基準測試時，BP 的起始位置是什麼？今天你是比平均好還是稍微差一點？特別是，您在哪裡看到了那裡的機會？

And then the second question is on another hot topic, which is a relisting. Its brought up by one of your counterparts. Where does BP sit on this? Is it a live debate? Do you see it as a structural disadvantage? Unlike your counterparts, you do have a big domestic U.S. business upstream and downstream there. So, just wanted to get your thoughts on that.

第二個問題是關於另一個熱門話題，那就是重新上市。它是由你的一位同行提出的。 BP對此有何看法？這是現場辯論嗎？您認為這是結構性劣勢嗎？與你們的同行不同，你們確實在美國國內擁有龐大的上游和下游業務。所以，只是想了解一下您對此的想法。

Great. Biraj, I'll ask Kate to tackle the cost question and how different we all account for these things. On relisting, I'll be consistent with what I've said in the past, Biraj. This is not on our agenda. What's on our agenda is safely performing quarter in and quarter out.

偉大的。 Biraj，我會請凱特解決成本問題以及我們對這些事情的解釋有何不同。在重新列出時，我將與我過去所說的保持一致，Biraj。這不在我們的議程上。我們的議程是安全地每季進行一次。

We're in a great position with the business. We've got strong growth coming through. We've got solid targets out to 2025 that we believe we can deliver. It will deliver 3% to 4% underlying cash flow growth if we hit our plans through the rest of the decade and certainly through '25 as well.

我們在業務上處於有利地位。我們正在經歷強勁的成長。我們制定了 2025 年的堅實目標，我們相信我們能夠實現。如果我們在這十年的剩餘時間（當然也包括到 25 世紀）實現我們的計劃，它將帶來 3% 到 4% 的基礎現金流成長。

And as we continue buybacks, that gives us then a chance to increase the dividend over time. We have confidence from it because it's worked before. In 2022 in the first half of 2023, we compressed the share price with some of the Americans by 1/3, simply by doing that performance. So that's what's on our agenda, not relisting. And so we're just focused tightly, tightly on performance, Biraj. Kate, over to you on the first question, please.

隨著我們繼續回購，我們就有機會隨著時間的推移增加股利。我們對此充滿信心，因為它以前就有效。 2022年2023年上半年，我們跟美國一些人的股價壓縮了1/3，光是做那個業績。這就是我們議程上的內容，而不是重新列出。所以我們只是緊緊關注性能，Biraj。凱特，請回答第一個問題。

Yes, so I've seen some of the narrative. Look, it's incredibly hard under the current accounting standards to really try and compare like-for-like, line-by-line the P&L account. There's a level of interpretation, let's say, on how companies can actually account for their costs through the income statements. That makes line-by-line comparison quite tricky.

是的，所以我看過一些敘述。看，在目前的會計準則下，真正嘗試逐行比較損益表是非常困難的。比方說，對於公司如何透過損益表實際計算其成本，存在一定程度的解釋。這使得逐行比較變得非常棘手。

What I would say is that, if you step back to February, and we talked about the fact that we were going to drive focus through the business, and we were going to deliver the next wave of efficiency. What we're really focused on is how we create our own greater efficiency and our own reduction in our cash costs. And what I would say is on our unit production cost, our lifting costs, we think we're very competitive at $6 a barrel.

我想說的是，如果你回到二月份，我們談到了這樣一個事實：我們將透過業務來推動重點，我們將帶來下一波效率。我們真正關注的是如何提高我們自己的效率並降低我們自己的現金成本。我想說的是，就我們的單位生產成本、提升成本而言，我們認為每桶 6 美元的價格非常有競爭力。

So, I guess, my guidance to you go forward, Biraj, is to anchor yourself on cash costs, which as you can see from the slide, we've tried to point you towards, if you toggle from where our total reported costs are down to our cash costs. That's how we've disclosed against in the past. That's how we'll continue to disclose against as we deliver this $2 billion of cost reductions through the end of 2026.

所以，我想，比拉吉，我對你前進的指導是將自己錨定在現金成本上，正如你從幻燈片中看到的那樣，如果你從我們報告的總成本的位置切換，我們試圖向你指出這一點降低到我們的現金成本。這就是我們過去所反對的揭露方式。這就是我們在 2026 年底之前實現 20 億美元成本削減計劃時繼續披露的方式。

And then finally, what I would say is, I think IFRS 18, which comes in at the beginning of 2027, will probably make your lives a bit easier. It will force more transparency and probably greater comparability across the sector. So I hope that's helpful.

最後，我想說的是，我認為 2027 年初推出的 IFRS 18 可能會讓您的生活變得更輕鬆。它將迫使整個行業提高透明度，並可能提高可比性。所以我希望這有幫助。

I'm going to move stateside now, given we're at a slightly more hospitable time. I take the first question from Paul Cheng at Scotia, Paul?

鑑於我們正處於一個稍微好客一點的時期，我現在要搬到美國去。我回答 Scotia 的 Paul Cheng 提出的第一個問題，Paul？

Kate in the press release, you guys talking about the Egypt devaluation balance impact or foreign currency impact. What's the -- is there a number that you can share that? How big is that number?

凱特在新聞稿中，你們談論埃及貶值平衡影響或外匯影響。這是什麼－您可以分享一下號碼嗎？這個數字有多大？

And also that from the fourth quarter to the first quarter, the gas and LCE is down roughly about $100 million in the adjusted earnings. How is that contribution -- is coming from the low carbon side? In other words, that is low carbon getting better or getting worse that we are seeing there? So that's the first question.

此外，從第四季度到第一季度，天然氣和 LCE 的調整後收益大約下降了約 1 億美元。這種貢獻是如何來自低碳的？換句話說，我們所看到的低碳是變得更好了還是變得更糟了？這是第一個問題。

Kate, over to you on Egypt. I think it answers the second question as well, doesn't it?

凱特，埃及問題交給你了。我想這也回答了第二個問題，不是嗎？

Yes, pretty much does. Yes, so on Egypt, we saw a significant devaluation in the currency. It went from 30 to 48, when Egypt free floated ahead of the injection of funds from the IMF and others, as you will have seen. So that foreign exchange impact has flowed through the first quarter. It's around about 0.2. You can also see it driving our tax rate up in the quarter as well. So that's what's going on with regard to Egypt and devaluation.

是的，幾乎是這樣。是的，在埃及，我們看到貨幣大幅貶值。如您所見，埃及在國際貨幣基金組織和其他機構注入資金之前實行自由浮動，匯率從 30 升至 48。因此外匯影響已經貫穿第一季。大約是0.2左右。您還可以看到它也推動了我們本季的稅率上升。這就是埃及和貨幣貶值的現況。

With regard to the gas and low carbon performance. So we're up on production. ARCOP down -- really down just quarter-on-quarter based on lower realizations and FX. So that's the story with regard to G&LCE for the quarter.

關於燃氣和低碳性能。所以我們已經開始生產了。 ARCOP 下降—實際上只是季度環比下降，原因是變現和匯率下降。這就是本季度 G&LCE 的情況。

Okay. Kate on the cost reduction, the $2 billion how much of them is related to any divestment or that that's purely on the actual underlying cost performance better?

好的。凱特關於成本削減，這20億美元中有多少與任何撤資有關，或者說這純粹是基於實際的潛在成本績效更好？

Yes. So we'll step through the intervention. So there are 4 areas we're focusing on. And one of it is focusing our portfolio. As you've talked -- heard us talk about for a little while now since we set out our 6 priorities in February. So there will be some of that, which is delivered through portfolio change as we get clearer on the component parts and how they contribute and when they get delivered, we'll update you in due course.

是的。因此，我們將逐步進行幹預。所以我們重點在四個領域。其中之一是集中我們的投資組合。正如您所說，自從我們在 2 月制定了 6 個優先事項以來，我們已經談論了一段時間了。因此，隨著我們更清楚地了解組成部分及其貢獻方式，其中的一些內容將透過投資組合變更來實現，當它們交付時，我們將在適當的時候向您更新。

Yes. Paul, it's more about focusing our engineering efforts. If you think about 2020 to 2023, it was about creating an awful lot of options in the upstream and refining in all of the transition growth engines as well. And we now have 32 final investment decisions to make across '24 and '25. So a large part of this focus is getting really clear which ones are these we're going to take forward. And as we do that, redeploying engineers to the highest quality ones, redeploying third-party resources, et cetera. That will create a lot of cost savings as we really, really focus on these things moving forward.

是的。保羅，更多的是要集中我們的工程工作。如果你考慮 2020 年到 2023 年，你會發現在上游創造大量選擇，並在所有轉型成長引擎中進行完善。現在，我們需要在 24 年至 25 年間做出 32 項最終投資決策。因此，這一重點的很大一部分是要真正弄清楚我們將要推進哪些專案。當我們這樣做時，將工程師重新部署到最高品質的工程師，重新部署第三方資源等等。這將節省大量成本，因為我們真的非常專注於這些事情的發展。

A small example of that to think about. During the past 90 days as we decided to sanction Atlantis tieback in the Gulf of Mexico, so you sanctioned that. At the same time, we decided to release BirAllah and Yakaar-Teranga in Mauritania and Senegal. So that's about being really, really driven by returns and deciding the best value, and then we can reallocate engineers. And yes, and use less third-party services, which creates cost savings.

一個值得思考的小例子。在過去的 90 天裡，我們決定批准在墨西哥灣的亞特蘭提斯回接，所以你們也批准了。同時，我們決定在茅利塔尼亞和塞內加爾釋放 BirAllah 和 Yakaar-Teranga。因此，這就是真正非常受回報驅動並確定最佳價值，然後我們可以重新分配工程師。是的，並且減少使用第三方服務，從而節省成本。

We'll stay in the U.S. and take the next question from Ryan Todd at Piper Sandler. Ryan?

我們將留在美國，回答 Piper Sandler 的 Ryan Todd 提出的下一個問題。瑞安？

Maybe first one on refining. You referenced the impact of narrowing crude differentials in North America. Can you talk about the impact that you expect in the U.S. from the start-up of TMX, any flexibility that you might have to mitigate the impact, whether in the Mid-Con or on the West Coast to Cherry Point.

也許第一個是關於精煉的。您提到了北美原油差異縮小的影響。您能否談談您期望 TMX 啟動後對美國產生的影響，以及減輕影響所需的任何靈活性，無論是在中部地區還是在西海岸到 Cherry Point。

And then maybe a follow-up on the on the cost that you were talking about there. There's increasing focus on cost inflation on the project side that we've seen in areas like Deepwater and LNG and the impact that it's having on some project returns. So can you maybe talk about what you're seeing across the portfolio impact on potential future FIDs like the Paleogene or future LNG expansion phases and your ability to mitigate those?

然後也許是您在那裡談論的成本的後續行動。人們越來越關注專案方面的成本通膨，我們在深水和液化天然氣等領域看到了這一點，以及它對某些專案回報的影響。那麼，您能否談談您所看到的投資組合對未來潛在最終投資決定（如古近紀或未來液化天然氣擴張階段）的影響以及您緩解這些影響的能力？

Yes. Sure. I'll take the first one, Kate. You want to take the second one? On the first one, on TMX and what we're seeing. Obviously, differentials have started collapse on WTI, WCS. I think they're probably sitting -- last time I looked somewhere around 14. It's probably not a bad range plus or minus a couple of bucks as far as what the range is on WTI, WCS is moving forward. Hard to predict, of course, but that's our sense of what will occur.

是的。當然。我選第一個，凱特。你想拿第二個嗎？第一個，關於 TMX 以及我們所看到的。顯然，WTI、WCS 的價差已經開始崩盤。我認為他們可能會坐在那裡 - 上次我在 14 左右查看。當然，很難預測，但這就是我們對將會發生的事情的感覺。

We've done 2 things to mitigate against this. First of all, as TMX comes online, it gets a direct route for that oil in the Cherry Point. So that will mitigate. Cherry Point will be able to access more affordable product moving forward. So that should be a benefit to us. It helps mitigate some of that effect. Plus, we have some pipeline re-wheeling that we've done over the past few years to be ready to flow product up and down up across North America to manage risk associated with Whiting as well.

我們做了兩件事來緩解這種情況。首先，隨著 TMX 上線，它在 Cherry Point 獲得了該石油的直接路線。這樣就會減輕。 Cherry Point 未來將可獲得更實惠的產品。所以這對我們來說應該是有好處的。它有助於減輕一些影響。另外，我們在過去幾年中進行了一些管道改造，準備好在北美上下流動產品，以管理與鱈魚相關的風險。

So net-net, we think we're probably still in the same shape we were pre-TMX coming online between Cherry Point and between our flexibility with Whiting and Cushing. Kate, over to you on the capital question.

因此，我們認為，在 Cherry Point 之間以及我們與 Whiting 和 Cushing 之間的靈活性之間，我們可能仍處於 TMX 上線之前的狀態。凱特，現在輪到你來討論資本問題了。

Yes, sure. So in terms of inflation, I think the area where we're still seeing inflation persist is in wage growth, so that's an area that we continue to battle against. The procurement team that we have inside the organization, are working and have worked over the last few years, incredibly hard to mitigate all the effects of inflation that we can through things like competitive bidding and moving into much more performance-based models.

是的，當然。因此，就通貨膨脹而言，我認為我們仍然看到通貨膨脹持續存在的領域是薪資成長，因此這是我們繼續與之鬥爭的領域。我們組織內部的採購團隊在過去幾年裡一直在努力工作，透過競爭性招標和轉向更基於績效的模式等方式來減輕通貨膨脹的所有影響。

Alliancing and partnerships have been effective in terms of helping us drive our cost down. What I would say is, the odd capacity is type, utilizations are high, probably the highest they've been for about a decade, and we think they may well remain like that for another 3 to 5 years perhaps, so that's something we'll pay attention to.

聯盟和夥伴關係在幫助我們降低成本方面非常有效。我想說的是，奇怪的容量是類型，利用率很高，可能是大約十年來的最高水平，我們認為它們很可能在未來 3 到 5 年內保持這種狀態，所以這就是我們的事情會注意的。

At the end of the day, when we think about the investment decisions, we will be, as you'd expect us to be, returns and value driven, so we will be making sure that all our projects that we sanction are meeting hurdles. But we feel pretty good about Kaskida right now. We hope to be able to move to sanction that at some point during the remainder of this year.

歸根結底，當我們考慮投資決策時，正如您所期望的那樣，我們將受到回報和價值的驅動，因此我們將確保我們批准的所有項目都能夠克服障礙。但我們現在對 Kaskida 感覺很好。我們希望能夠在今年剩餘時間的某個時候採取行動制裁這一行為。

And I think on the LNG side from recent bids we're seeing, we're okay to continue moving this forward, whether it's in Asia or the Middle East as well. I think enough companies are now recycling things that we're seeing some looseness inside the supply chain. But it's a good question to ask us each quarter to observe as we see the bids come in with the potential sanctions upcoming.

我認為，從我們最近看到的液化天然氣方面來看，我們可以繼續推進這一項目，無論是在亞洲還是中東。我認為現在有足夠多的公司在回收東西，我們看到供應鏈內部出現了一些鬆動。但這是一個很好的問題，每個季度都要求我們進行觀察，因為我們看到出價是隨著潛在的製裁即將到來而出現的。

We'll take the next question from Chris Kuplent at Bank of America. Chris?

我們將回答美國銀行的 Chris Kuplent 提出的下一個問題。克里斯？

Just 2 quick questions for me. I was wondering whether there is a specific reason you no longer publish your surplus cash flow metric. That seems to have dropped off the page and just checking whether my back of the envelope, minus $1.5 billion in the quarter is anywhere close to where you would get to with your definition? That's question number one.

只是問我兩個簡單的問題。我想知道您不再發布剩餘現金流量指標是否有具體原因。這似乎已經從紙面上消失了，只需檢查我的信封背面，本季減去 15 億美元是否接近您定義的水平？這是第一個問題。

And question number two is on the ADNOC JV in Egypt. I'm assuming that is yet to close and it's appearing in your assets for sale. So I wonder whether that will translate into disposal proceeds. And obviously, you're guiding still to $2.2 billion to $3 billion for the full year. And if you could give us any more clarity on how you're going to account for that JV?

第二個問題是關於阿布達比國家石油公司在埃及的合資企業。我假設該交易尚未結束，並且已出現在您的待售資產中。所以我想知道這是否會轉化為處置收益。顯然，您的全年目標仍為 22 億至 30 億美元。您能否更清楚地說明您將如何對該合資企業進行會計？

Yes, sure. I'll let Kate answer the surplus one, and then I'll tackle Egypt.

是的，當然。我將讓凱特回答剩餘的問題，然後我將解決埃及問題。

Yes. So when we updated the financial frame in February and set out a 2-year frame to the end of 2025, what we were after was creating greater clarity and predictability on distributions. As a consequence of that, we've delinked our quarterly share buyback from surplus cash calculation. It was creating an awful lot of volatility.

是的。因此，當我們在 2 月更新財務框架並製定到 2025 年底的 2 年框架時，我們追求的是提高分配的清晰度和可預測性。因此，我們將季度股票回購與盈餘現金計算脫鉤。它造成了巨大的波動。

It remains something we look at over time, as you can see from the fin frame, we said that over time, we expect to distribute 80% of surplus cash to shareholders. So, we'll think about the rate at which we may, or may not want to include further disclosures. It's not something we intend to disclose on quarter-on-quarter now any longer, as it's not a direct input to the share buyback. So, we don't feel the need to make any quarterly disclosure on that.

隨著時間的推移，這仍然是我們關注的問題，正如你從鰭框架中看到的那樣，我們表示，隨著時間的推移，我們預計將 80% 的剩餘現金分配給股東。因此，我們將考慮我們可能或可能不想進一步披露的速度。我們現在不再打算按季度披露這一信息，因為它不是股票回購的直接投入。因此，我們認為沒有必要對此進行任何季度披露。

At the end of the day, cash flow is going to go up and down over the quarters, with things like working capital movements. So, we expected the balance sheet to tolerate some fluctuations in the first half. We saw that come through. We have the typical working capital build, and we've got heavy CapEx in the first quarter, and our divestment proceeds are back ended. But our balance sheet is strong enough to tolerate that. We can look through that over time. And that's why we have moved to a frame that stops that quarter-on-quarter link to a surplus cash calculation.

歸根結底，隨著營運資金變動等因素，現金流將在每個季度上下波動。因此，我們預期上半年資產負債表將能承受一定的波動。我們看到了這一點。我們有典型的營運資本建設，第一季有大量資本支出，而且我們的撤資收益已被終止。但我們的資產負債表足以承受這種情況。我們可以隨著時間的推移來審視這一點。這就是為什麼我們轉向了一個框架，停止與盈餘現金計算的季度環比聯繫。

Great. Thanks Kate. And Chris, on ADNOC, yes, we've moved forward with the transaction. It's an asset held for sale. As you say, we're waiting for completion second half of the year, probably 3Q, 4Q. It depends really on how we move our way through the -- with the Egyptian authorities.

偉大的。謝謝凱特。克里斯，關於阿布達比國家石油公司，是的，我們已經推動了交易。這是持有待售的資產。正如你所說，我們正在等待下半年完成，可能是第三季、第四季。這實際上取決於我們如何與埃及當局一起度過難關。

The accounting for that, it will show up as proceeds. As discussed, I can't disclose those proceeds now. We're under a confidentiality agreement. But by the time it closes, you'll see that inside the accounts, but it will take up a good chunk of the $2 billion to $3 billion target that we talked about. I hope that's clear, Chris.

對此進行會計處理，它將顯示為收益。正如所討論的，我現在不能透露這些收益。我們有保密協議。但當它關閉時，你會在帳戶中看到這一點，但這將佔據我們談到的 20 億至 30 億美元目標的很大一部分。我希望這是清楚的，克里斯。

We'll take the next question from Lydia Rainforth at Barclays. Lydia?

我們將回答巴克萊銀行 Lydia Rainforth 提出的下一個問題。莉迪亞？

2, if I could. Just if we could go back to the cost base and the targets that you've got the at least $2 billion, can you just walk us through in more detail some of the examples of what that involves? And because it's sometimes quite hard to say what are good costs that help growth and what are bad costs reflecting inefficiencies.

2、如果可以的話。如果我們可以回到成本基礎和至少 20 億美元的目標，您能否更詳細地向我們介紹其中涉及的一些範例？因為有時很難說哪些是有助於成長的良好成本，哪些是反映效率低下的不良成本。

And I am a little bit surprised that you're talking about $20 billion of costs that -- in that transportation and shipping costs that there's absolutely nothing you can do about. That does surprise me a little bit. So any thoughts you have on that?

我有點驚訝的是，你談論的是 200 億美元的成本，在運輸和運輸成本中，你絕對無能為力。這確實讓我有點驚訝。那麼你對此有什麼想法嗎？

And then I'm going to come back a little bit to the EBITDA guidance. Given the cost savings number, is there a reasonable argument that actually the EBITDA numbers and targets should be moved a little bit higher?

然後我將稍微回顧一下 EBITDA 指導。考慮到成本節省的數字，是否有合理的理由認為 EBITDA 數字和目標實際上應該提高一點？

And effectively, I guess, what I'm asking for Murray is slightly separately is -- and I suspect you're not going to give me this. But an exit rate on EBITDA for 2024 is to just -- we should be seeing momentum at this stage in that EBITDA number during this year, right?

實際上，我想，我對莫瑞的要求有點不同——而且我懷疑你不會給我這個。但 2024 年 EBITDA 的退出率只是——我們應該在今年的現階段看到 EBITDA 數字的勢頭，對嗎？

Yes. Great. Lydia. Thank you for your questions. Let's see cost examples, I'll tackle. I think the second question I'll let Kate deal with.

是的。偉大的。莉迪亞.謝謝您的提問。讓我們看看成本範例，我將解決這個問題。我想第二個問題我會讓凱特來處理。

On cost examples, so there are 4 areas that we're really focused on Lydia to deliver at least $2 billion by the end of 2026. The first one was focusing the portfolio. You heard about me talk about that already, so I won't repeat myself.

就成本範例而言，我們真正專注於 Lydia 的 4 個領域，希望其到 2026 年底交付至少 20 億美元。你已經聽我說過了，所以我不再重複。

The second one is your favorite, which is digital transformation. We've done an awful lot to digitize many parts of our business, and we're now applying GenAI to it. The places that we're seeing tremendous results on our coding. We need 70% less coders from third parties to code as the AI handles most of the coding. The human only needs to look at the final 30% to validate it. That's a big savings for the company moving forward.

第二個是你最喜歡的，那就是數位轉型。我們已經做了很多工作來實現業務的許多部分的數位化，現在我們正在將 GenAI 應用到其中。在這些地方，我們的編碼取得了巨大的成果。由於人工智慧處理了大部分編碼工作，我們需要的第三方編碼員減少了 70%。人類只需要查看最後的 30% 即可驗證它。這對於公司的發展來說是一筆巨大的節省。

Second, things like call centers, the language models have become so sophisticated now, they can operate in multiple language -- 14, 15 languages easily. In the past that hasn't been something we can do, so we can redeploy people off that given that the AI can do it. You heard my advertising example last quarter, where advertising cycle times moved from 4 to 5 months down to a couple of weeks. So that's obviously reducing spend with third-parties.

其次，像是呼叫中心這樣的東西，語言模型現在變得非常複雜，它們可以輕鬆地以多種語言運行——14、15種語言。在過去，這不是我們能做的事情，所以考慮到人工智慧可以做到這一點，我們可以重新部署人員。您聽說過我上個季度的廣告範例，廣告週期時間從 4 到 5 個月縮短到幾週。因此，這顯然減少了與第三方的支出。

We've now got GenAI in the hands through Microsoft Copilot across many, many parts of the business. And we'll continue to update with you with anecdotes as we go through. But I think this is just a tremendous step change in digital for our company, and I continue to look for ways to drive higher margin. And reduce cost, both on capital and cost.

現在，我們已經透過 Microsoft Copilot 在業務的許多方面掌握了 GenAI。我們將繼續為您提供最新的趣聞軼事。但我認為這對我們公司來說是數位化的巨大變革，我將繼續尋找提高利潤率的方法。並降低成本，無論是資本或成本。

The supplier is probably a nice little example to think about eliminating waste. Our good partners at Subsea7 have formed an alliance with us. In the past, we would have overseen at what they were doing. Instead now, we formed joint teams. They work together on a job. They try to figure out how to optimize it. We incentivize them for time and efficiency. And we have co-located teams that work together on these things.

供應商可能是考慮消除浪費的一個很好的小例子。 Subsea7 的好夥伴已與我們結盟。過去，我們會監督他們所做的事情。現在，我們組成了聯合團隊。他們一起工作。他們試圖找出如何優化它。我們激勵他們投入時間和提高效率。我們有同地辦公的團隊，共同致力於這些事。

So what it does is it eliminates bid cycles, it reduces the number of engineers involved from both sides in getting everything done. It reduces vessel time, et cetera. So that's just one concept of alliances that we've been doing in the capital side with projects and drilling for a while, and we're now pushing that into the operation space both in the upstream and the refineries. So that will take out a lot of waste as we move these alliances forward as well.

所以它的作用是消除投標週期，減少雙方參與完成所有工作的工程師數量。它減少了船舶時間等。因此，這只是我們在資本方面透過專案和鑽探進行了一段時間的聯盟概念，現在我們正在將其推向上游和煉油廠的營運領域。因此，隨著我們推動這些聯盟的發展，這也將消除大量浪費。

And then last, global capability hubs. We have a continuing need for engineering. It's scarce in the west. So we're looking east for that engineering capability. It's a different cost profile sometimes, but fabulous efficiency. We see that both in contractors. So contractors we work with are shifting that way and then ourselves as well across engineering, IT, et cetera.

最後是全球能力中心。我們對工程有持續的需求。這在西方是稀缺的。因此，我們正在向東方尋找這種工程能力。有時成本情況有所不同，但效率卻很高。我們在承包商身上都看到了這一點。因此，與我們合作的承包商正在朝著這種方式轉變，然後我們自己也在工程、IT 等領域轉變。

So those are the 4 examples of how we think we'll get to at least the $2 billion. No, Lydia, I'm not going to give you an update on '24 and run rate EBITDA. All I'll say is, I'm confident in the growth on an underlying cash flow basis of 3% to 4% through the decade, including in '24 and '25.

這些是我們認為如何至少達到 20 億美元的 4 個例子。不，Lydia，我不會向您提供 24 年的最新情況和 EBITDA 運行率。我想說的是，我對未來十年（包括 24 年和 25 年）以基本現金流為基礎的 3% 至 4% 的成長充滿信心。

We see strong growth out of the upstream with new projects coming online with BPX growing, with new LNG coming online from '23 to '25 mtpa, a return to normal tar seasons in our refineries, along with all the growth that we see from the TGEs and business like Castrol.

我們看到上游的強勁成長，隨著BPX 的成長，新專案上線，新的液化天然氣從23 噸/年上線到25 噸/年，我們的煉油廠恢復到正常的焦油季節，以及我們從煉油廠所有看到的成長TGE 和嘉實多等企業。

So we feel comfortable with that 3% to 4% growth per annum underlying on a free cash flow basis through '24 and '25. Will the cost savings add to that? Let's see. I think it will take time to do some of these things. Some things will come through faster than others. But for now, we're saying an 26 basis. And let's see how we get on. Kate?

因此，我們對 24 年和 25 年期間以自由現金流為基礎的每年 3% 至 4% 的成長感到滿意。節省的成本會增加嗎？讓我們來看看。我認為做其中一些事情需要時間。有些事情會比其他事情完成得更快。但現在，我們說的是 26 基。讓我們看看進展如何。凱特？

I think you kind of did my job for me.

我認為你已經為我完成了我的工作。

Did I roll into your question. Sorry about that.

我是否回答了你的問題？對於那個很抱歉。

The only thing I was going to add is that, some of the changes that we're contemplating take time to effect and execute, and we do it in a way that we are confident we're managing risks, so there may be some parallel running costs at some point and we'll update you as we get clearer on that path and on any associated red tapes.

我唯一要補充的是，我們正在考慮的一些改變需要時間才能生效和執行，而且我們的方式是我們有信心管理風險，所以可能會有一些平行的改變運行成本在某個時候，當我們更清楚路徑和任何相關的繁文縟節時，我們會向您更新。

I hope that helps you, Lydia.

我希望這對你有幫助，莉迪亞。

Great.

偉大的。

We'll take the next question from Michele Della Vigna at Goldman Sachs. Michele?

我們將回答高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 米歇爾·德拉·維尼亞 (Michele Della Vigna) 提出的下一個問題。米歇爾？

And congratulations on the focus on cost efficiency despite the relatively positive macroenvironment. 2 questions, if I may. On the dividend per share, it looks like we are up for an announcement next quarter. I was wondering how should we think about the underlying growth? We've got 3% to 4% absolute growth of the business, and we've got a share retirement that is running at between 6% and 7%.

儘管宏觀環境相對積極，但請祝賀您對成本效率的關注。如果可以的話，我有兩個問題。關於每股股息，我們似乎準備在下個季度發佈公告。我想知道我們應該如何看待潛在的成長？我們的業務絕對成長率為 3% 到 4%，我們的股票退休率在 6% 到 7% 之間。

Is it too simplistic to think about growth of the business plus share retirement equal, what can be achieved in terms of sustainable DPS growth?

認為業務成長加上股票退休相等的話，在可持續的每股盈餘成長方面可以實現什麼，是不是太簡單了？

And then secondly, on the net interest expense, quite a difficult line to forecast. It's been around $900 million for the last 3 quarters. Is it fair to assume we remain at about that run rate in the coming quarters? Or is there anything else we need to take into consideration.

其次，就淨利息支出而言，預測相當困難。過去三個季度的銷售額約為 9 億美元。假設我們在未來幾季保持這一運行速度是否公平？或者還有什麼我們需要考慮的嗎？

Kate, do you want to handle the dividend?

凱特，你想處理股息嗎？

Sure. So Michele, I think you may have done my arithmetic for me. I guess, a couple of points to just to add to that. So if you think about the financial frame, remember to anchor on our balance points. And also the fact that we are -- our first priority is that resilient dividend and at $60, the capacity to increase by 4% per annum. But as you rightly point out, we've had previous increases in 2Q 2022, 4Q 2022, 2Q 2023 each around 10%, underpinned by strong performance and by a reduced share count.

當然。所以米歇爾，我想你可能已經幫我算好了。我想，有幾點要補充一下。因此，如果您考慮財務框架，請記住錨定我們的平衡點。事實上，我們的首要任務是彈性股息，以及每年 60 美元成長 4% 的能力。但正如您正確指出的那樣，我們之前在 2022 年第二季、2022 年第四季和 2023 年第二季的股價分別成長了 10% 左右，這得益於強勁的業績和股票數量的減少。

So as you'd imagine, the Board will look into many factors when we come to that conversation in 2Q. But as you consider what we've done with our share count, I think we're 17% reduced at the end of 2023. And since 2Q '23 at the moment, we are about 5.5% reduced share count. So I'll let you add that to your current arithmetic.

因此，正如您所想像的那樣，當我們在第二季度進行對話時，董事會將研究許多因素。但當你考慮到我們對股份數量所做的事情時，我認為到 2023 年底我們將減少 17%。所以我會讓你把它加到你目前的算術中。

But the Board makes that decision each and every quarter. And of course, you can look backwards to think about what we do looking forward. I think Michele on your net interest income expense, presuming flat is a sensible thing to do moving forward. I think that's just the easiest thing to do, rather than give guidance.

但董事會每季都會做出這樣的決定。當然，你可以回顧過去，思考我們未來會做什麼。我認為米歇爾關於你的淨利息收入支出，假設持平是向前邁進的明智之舉。我認為這只是最簡單的事情，而不是提供指導。

We'll take the next question from Martijn Rats at Morgan Stanley. Martin?

我們將回答摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats 提出的下一個問題。馬丁？

So last quarter, you were helpful in providing sort of a comment on the EBITDA that was delivered if it was restated under 2025 reference conditions, which of course, given that we're sort of tracking towards that 2025 guidance over the next couple of quarters, it's actually quite helpful. So this quarter EBITDA was $10.3 billion. Can you once again provide some color on what that would have been under 2025 reference conditions?

因此，上個季度，您對在 2025 年參考條件下重述的 EBITDA 提供了某種評論，當然，考慮到我們將在接下來的幾個季度跟踪 2025 年指導，實際上很有幫助。因此，本季 EBITDA 為 103 億美元。您能否再次提供一些關於 2025 年參考條件下的情況的資訊？

And secondly, I wanted to ask you about yesterday's FT article. I'm sure you've read it. But there was an FT article that said that BP could make some additional changes on its longer term sort of targets, including the guidance for a decline in production by the end of the decade, the well-known 25% reduction target. I was wondering if you had any comments on that article?

其次，我想問昨天英國《金融時報》的文章。我確定你已經讀過。但英國《金融時報》的一篇文章稱，BP 可能對其長期目標做出一些額外的改變，包括到本世紀末產量下降的指導，即眾所周知的 25% 的減產目標。我想知道你對這篇文章有什麼評論嗎？

Sure, I'll tackle both of those, Martin. Thanks for the questions. So what we said is that the conditions that prevailed in 2023, which ironically are very close to the conditions that prevailed in 1Q, 2024, that was a good starting point for how you should think about 2025. And then you should just apply underlying growth rate to get to what you think the EBITDA would be across the 2 years.

當然，我會解決這兩個問題，馬丁。感謝您的提問。因此，我們所說的是，諷刺的是，2023 年的情況與 2024 年第一季的情況非常接近，這是您如何思考 2025 年的一個很好的起點。以達到您認為的2 年EBITDA 水準。

And we've talked about 3% to 4% underlying cashflow growth since CapEx is flat and since proceeds are relatively flat, that implies 3% to 4% EBITDA growth across '24 and '25 as well. And you can -- I've said the sources of those value numerous times to help you think about how you can quantify that. I think the only thing I'd say is the $10.3 billion that we had in 1Q, 2024 obviously had the unusual incident with Whiting. We wouldn't obviously plan for something like that moving forward.

我們討論了 3% 到 4% 的基本現金流成長，因為資本支出持平，而且收益也相對持平，這意味著 24 年和 25 年 EBITDA 成長 3% 到 4%。你可以——我已經多次說過這些價值的來源，以幫助你思考如何量化它。我想我唯一要說的是，我們在 2024 年第一季擁有的 103 億美元顯然與 Whiting 發生了不尋常的事件。我們顯然不會計劃繼續進行類似的事情。

It had an impact of around a $0.5 billion in the quarter, so you should probably add that back and you're getting close to $11 billion EBITDA at about the right conditions for '25. I think 11 times 4, I'll let you do that math, but you can get a sense of where we are performing. And then the 3% to 4% gives you a sense of where we think we'll be in 2025.

它在本季度產生了約 5 億美元的影響，因此您可能應該將其加回去，並且在 25 年的適當條件下，您的 EBITDA 將接近 110 億美元。我想 11 乘以 4，我會讓你做這個數學計算，但你可以了解我們的表現。然後 3% 到 4% 讓您了解我們認為 2025 年我們會處於什麼位置。

And all of you will adjust that based on what you believe will happen with performance, and what will happen with the environment. So, I think that's probably about as good as I can do in that space.

你們所有人都會根據你們認為性能會發生什麼以及環境會發生什麼來調整這一點。所以，我認為這可能是我在這個領域所能做的最好的事了。

As far as the FT article about 2 million a day, I'm just going to again be consistent with what I talked about last quarter. We continue to -- with a strategy of transitioning from an IOC to an IEC, we will diversify the business over time. We will focus on bio, EV, convenience, hydrogen and renewables. We will continue investing into this space. We will be pragmatic and we will make sure the investments we make hit our returns hurdles. And of course, at the same time, we'll be investing into hydrocarbons.

至於《金融時報》關於每天 200 萬條的文章，我將再次與我上個季度談論的內容保持一致。我們將繼續實施從 IOC 過渡到 IEC 的策略，隨著時間的推移，我們將實現業務多元化。我們將重點放在生物、電動車、便利性、氫能和再生能源。我們將繼續投資這個領域。我們將採取務實的態度，確保我們的投資達到回報目標。當然，同時，我們將投資碳氫化合物。

On the hydrocarbons, 2030 is an aim, it's not a target. We estimated at around 2 million a day right now, and it will largely be determined by the long list of potential final investment decisions we have to make across '24 and '25. There are around 30 of them, some in the upstream, some in refining, some in the transition growth engines. And based on what decisions we make, that will determine the volume outcome. But what I'm really, really focused on with the organization is returns and cash flow, not volume.

就碳氫化合物而言，2030 年是一個目標，而不是具體目標。我們估計現在每天大約有 200 萬，這很大程度上取決於我們在 24 世紀和 25 年間必須做出的一長串潛在的最終投資決策。大概有30家左右，有的在上游，有的在煉油，有的在轉型成長引擎。根據我們做出的決定，這將決定數量結果。但我真正真正關注的是組織的回報和現金流，而不是數量。

So during the quarter, back to that story, again, we sanctioned on oil project in the Gulf of Mexico. And we let go 2 gas resource gas resources in the West Coast of Africa. So that tells you we're return-driven, not volume-driven. And once we're through deciding the final investment decisions over the next couple of years, we'll update you with a target for 2030 production.

因此，在本季度，再次回到這個故事，我們批准了墨西哥灣的石油項目。我們也放出了非洲西海岸的2個天然氣資源。所以這告訴你我們是回報驅動的，而不是數量驅動的。一旦我們決定了未來幾年的最終投資決策，我們將向您通報 2030 年的生產目標。

Could it be higher than 2 million a day? Yes. Could it be lower than 2 million a day? Yes. It's all going to be return and cash flow focused. Martijn, as I think you would hope we would be. I hope that provides enough clarity.

一天能超過200萬嗎？是的。一天能低於200萬嗎？是的。一切都將以回報和現金流為重點。 Martijn，我想你會希望我們成為這樣的人。我希望這能提供足夠的清晰度。

We'll take the next question. Actually, we'll go back stage side from Roger Read at Wells Fargo. Roger?

我們將回答下一個問題。事實上，我們將從富國銀行的羅傑·里德那裡回到後台。羅傑？

Just wanted to dive back in, Murray, earlier, you mentioned diesel recession going on since you have a pretty impressive global footprint. Just wondering you could expand on that a little bit.

只是想回到正題，穆雷，早些時候，您提到柴油經濟衰退正在發生，因為您在全球的足跡相當令人印象深刻。只是想知道你可以對此進行一些擴展。

And then the other question would just be, can we get a little more of an update on how things are going in the Permian with BPX, just a little more depth into the operations, what you're seeing in the way of productivity and efficiency, things like that.

然後另一個問題是，我們能否獲得更多關於二疊紀 BPX 進展情況的最新信息，更深入地了解運營情況，以及您在生產力和效率方面所看到的情況， 像這樣的東西。

Sure. Kate, do you want to take diesel recession?

當然。凱特，你想經歷柴油衰退嗎？

Yes. Sure. Yes. Thanks, Roger. I was out with TA actually about a month ago. We talked a lot about this. So the sector that TA has historically focused on is a sector where there are probably smaller sized truckers capturing a higher margin. As a consequence, they're probably far more sensitive to spot price. And actually, what's happened in the spot freight rate over the last couple of years is it has declined. If these truckers are being sensible, they don't drive when the economics don't make sense. So as a consequence, we've seen volumes down.

是的。當然。是的。謝謝，羅傑。其實大約一個月前我就跟TA出去了。我們對此談了很多。因此，TA 歷來關注的行業可能是規模較小的卡車司機獲得更高利潤的行業。因此，他們可能對現貨價格更加敏感。事實上，過去幾年即期運費一直在下降。如果這些卡車司機是明智的，當經濟不合理時他們就不會開車。因此，我們看到銷量下降了。

What I would say to you, is having spoken with [Debbie] and her LT out there. They are all over how they offset that until such point as the recovery starts to kick in. And we expect currently that, that that trucking recession will probably start to mitigate towards the end of this year with a full recovery next year.

我要對你說的是，我已經與[黛比]和她的 LT 進行了交談。他們都在研究如何抵消這一影響，直到經濟開始復甦。

So as you would expect, thereafter, streamlining their costs, they're contemplating, how to high-grade their site portfolio. And they're focused on securing some customers, which diversify their customer base into their larger fleets, where you may get slightly slimmer margins, but you've got to capture upside from the non-fuel income.

因此，正如您所期望的那樣，此後，他們正在考慮如何提高其網站組合的質量，從而簡化成本。他們專注於爭取一些客戶，從而將他們的客戶群分散到更大的車隊中，在那裡你可能會獲得稍微微薄的利潤，但你必須從非燃料收入中獲得好處。

Great. Thanks, Kate. I think on the Permian, Roger, obviously, we got our third central gathering process up online now. I think that takes our capacity for black oil up to around 100 kbd. So, I think a lot of the wells are drilled, and we should be popping them and filling that up as we move through the second quarter.

偉大的。謝謝，凱特。我認為在二疊紀，羅傑，顯然，我們現在已經在網上進行了第三次集中收集過程。我認為這將使我們的黑油產能達到 100 kbd 左右。因此，我認為許多油井都已鑽探，我們應該在第二季將其打爆並填滿。

Conditions inside the Permian, it's a little bit looser. There's -- there are more rigs available, obviously, from low natural gas prices, that's making the supply side of it a little bit better. And no real change from October on the productivity. All the recent benchmarking we're doing is showing us at the top of the pack on the productivity on NPV for drilling spend.

二疊紀內部的條件稍微寬鬆一些。顯然，由於天然氣價格低廉，有更多可用的鑽孔機，這使得供應方面變得更好一些。與十月相比，生產力沒有真正的改變。我們最近所做的所有基準測試都表明，我們在鑽井支出的 NPV 生產力方面處於領先地位。

So, we're proud of the team for driving that as well. We're not feeling any constraints. We're not feeling any constraints on export at this stage. And we're looking forward to getting the fourth and last central facility online mid next year. So I hope that helps. I'll be out there next week to see the guys. And next quarter, I can give you a more detailed report.

因此，我們也為推動這項目標的團隊感到自豪。我們沒有感受到任何限制。現階段我們沒有感受到出口受到任何限制。我們期待第四個也是最後一個中心設施在明年年中上線。所以我希望這會有所幫助。下週我會去那裡見那些傢伙。下個季度，我可以給你一份更詳細的報告。

We're actually going to jump to an online question that we've received from Alejandro at Santander, he's struggling with the phone line. Sorry about that, Alejandro. He's asking Murray and Kate about Namibia and the investment plans there after the Azule Energy announcement?

實際上，我們要跳到桑坦德銀行亞歷杭德羅（Alejandro）發來的線上問題，他正在為電話線而苦苦掙扎。很抱歉，亞歷杭德羅。他向穆雷和凱特詢問納米比亞的情況以及阿祖爾能源公司宣布後在那裡的投資計畫？

Yes, sure. I can take that one. So we've been in Namibia as BP for about a decade. We entered back in 2010 or 2011, drilled a couple of dry holes, unfortunately, last decade. But we've been monitoring it ever since. Given the recent success that's happened we started to look at some farm-ins. And obviously, we were able to farm into the block south of Galp's big discoveries with Rhino.

是的，當然。我可以接受那個。我們作為英國石油公司在納米比亞已經有大約十年的時間了。我們早在 2010 年或 2011 年就進入了，不幸的是，在過去的十年裡，我們鑽了幾個乾洞。但從那時起我們就一直在監視它。鑑於最近的成功，我們開始考慮一些農場收購。顯然，我們能夠利用 Rhino 在 Galp 重大發現以南的區塊進行耕作。

We farmed in for 42%, and we chose to do it through Eni and ourselves, chose to do that through Azule, which is our West African energy company. So we're looking forward to completing that farm-in. We then move towards drilling wells later in the year. There are 2 wells to drill under our agreement and we'll see how it goes. But it's a nice little addition to Azule.

我們種植了 42% 的股份，我們選擇透過埃尼和我們自己來實現，選擇透過我們的西非能源公司 Azule 來實現。因此，我們期待著完成該農場。然後我們將在今年稍後開始鑽探井。根據我們的協議，有 2 口井需要鑽探，我們將看看進展如何。但這是對 Azule 的一個很好的補充。

It's got a great growth profile inside Angola to the end of the decade. And cross fingers, if we get some discoveries, it gives legs for another 10 or 20 years. So we'll see how the drilling goes. You can never count on these things, but it looks like it's in a nice postcode. Craig, back to you.

到本世紀末，它在安哥拉國內取得了巨大的成長。祈禱吧，如果我們有一些發現，它就能再延續 10 年或 20 年。那我們將看看鑽井進行得如何。你永遠不能指望這些東西，但看起來它是在一個很好的郵遞區號。克雷格，回到你身邊。

We'll take the next question from Christyan Malek at JPMorgan. Christyan?

我們將回答摩根大通的 Christyan Malek 提出的下一個問題。克里斯蒂安？

2 questions, please. First, just on the cost savings. I have to congratulate you continue to drive efficiencies. My only sort of kind of just a question around growth, is your liquids growth in '26, back to that sort of theme. Why aren't you thinking all framing in the same way you're doing costs, but more in an upcycle view of you to consolidate or scale up your liquids given your constructive outlook? It strikes me as sort of a very bare market to continue to focus on cost, albeit that's absolutely necessary.

請提 2 個問題。首先，只是節省成本。我必須祝賀您繼續提高效率。我唯一的關於成長的問題是你在 26 年的液體成長，回到那個主題。考慮到您的建設性前景，為什麼不以與計算成本相同的方式來考慮所有框架，而是更多地以升級循環的角度來考慮鞏固或擴大您的液體？在我看來，繼續關注成本是一個非常裸露的市場，儘管這是絕對必要的。

So I just wanted to hear more about your liquids plan, particularly given the U.S. consolidation that we're seeing? And how do you frame that on a medium-term basis, given we are after all talking about 2026?

所以我只是想更多地了解你們的液體計劃，特別是考慮到我們正在看到的美國整合？鑑於我們畢竟談論的是 2026 年，您如何在中期基礎上建立這個框架？

And the second question is around low carbon and trading. Is there a plan or thinking about being more explicit around those businesses in terms of breaking them up to show your cash flow pathway? Clearly, trading is more challenging given it's more discrete, but on the low carbon side, so I just understand better what the free cash flow trajectory will be on a medium-term basis, as we start to think about drawing a part through EBITDA targets?

第二個問題是關於低碳和貿易。是否有計劃或考慮更明確地圍繞這些業務進行拆分，以顯示您的現金流路徑？顯然，交易更具挑戰性，因為它更加離散，但在低碳方面，所以我只是更好地理解中期自由現金流軌跡，因為我們開始考慮透過 EBITDA 目標繪製一部分？

Great. Kate, do you want to lead off with disclosures on low carbon trading?

偉大的。凱特，您想先披露低碳交易嗎？

Yes. So thanks Christyan. So the low carbon trading is, obviously, included in our trading numbers. It's also included in our transition growth engine disclosures when we make those at the half year and the full year. But we won't be breaking those out beyond the 5 transition growth engines, I think there's enough complexity in that disclosure as it is already.

是的。謝謝克里斯蒂安。因此，低碳交易顯然包含在我們的交易數據中。當我們在半年和全年進行轉型成長引擎揭露時，它也包含在我們的揭露中。但我們不會將這些突破到 5 個轉型成長引擎之外，我認為該揭露已經夠複雜了。

And on liquid side, Christyan, I guess, in our Denver presentation to you, back in October, we talked about a pretty resilient oil portfolio with the capacity to grow production through 2027 by 2% to 3%. As we look at our sanctions moving forward, from sanctions in the Middle East to sanctions in the East Coast of Canada to Brazil to the Gulf of Mexico to the North Sea, potentially to Azule and Aker BP, we have an awful lot of oil in the portfolio. And as we make those sanctions, that would give us more duration to grow the oil business as well beyond 2027. But I can't really commit to that until I'm clear, about which sanctions we move forward.

在液體方面，克里斯蒂安，我想，早在10 月份我們在丹佛向您做的演講中，我們就談到了一個相當有彈性的石油投資組合，有能力在2027 年之前將產量增長2% 至3 %。當我們審視我們的製裁進展時，從中東的製裁到加拿大東海岸的製裁，再到巴西、墨西哥灣、北海，可能還有 Azule 和 Aker BP，我們有大量石油存在。當我們實施這些制裁時，這將使我們在 2027 年之後有更多的時間來發展石油業務。

I think on the question of do you want to go buy, I'm a countercyclical human being, with low carbon energy in the doldrums right now, now is the time to go countercyclical. That's why we're doing Lightsource bp at a countercyclical moment in time. And watch this space, we may do some more things over the coming years in the countercyclical environment.

我想在你要不要去買的問題上，我是一個逆週期的人，現在低碳能源低迷，現在是逆週期的時候了。這就是我們在反週期時刻進行 Lightsource bp 的原因。觀察這個空間，未來幾年我們可能會在反週期環境中做更多事情。

On the oil side, with oil at $85 or $90, I'm not sure it's the right time to be buying oil. We might consider some bolt-ons, but we just -- we'd prefer to be countercyclical rather than pro-cyclical. And we do have some pretty strong growth as we look forward, especially relative to the competition, especially in the high-margin basins of the OECD.

在石油方面，目前石油價格為 85 美元或 90 美元，我不確定現在是購買石油的合適時機。我們可能會考慮一些補充措施，但我們只是—我們更願意逆週期而不是順週期。展望未來，我們確實會實現相當強勁的成長，特別是相對於競爭而言，尤其是在經合組織的高利潤盆地。

So, I feel okay where we are right now. I don't want to do high-price acquisitions and instead I'll go countercyclical with scarce cash where counter-cyclicality exists. I hope that helps Christyan?

所以，我對我們現在的處境感覺還不錯。我不想進行高價收購，相反，我會在有反週期的情況下用稀缺的現金進行反週期收購。我希望這對克里斯蒂安有幫助？

We'll go to Irene Himona at Bernstein next. Irene?

接下來我們將前往伯恩斯坦的艾琳希莫納 (Irene Himona)。艾琳？

My first question, Murray, going back to the $2 billion cost savings. You did mention, I believe, 8% cash cost inflation on that $22 billion cost base. So I wonder, should we think of the $2 billion reduction target as partly or wholly removing that inflationary impact and leaving the underlying cost base flat, would you say?

莫瑞，我的第一個問題是回到 20 億美元的成本節省。我相信你確實提到過，在 220 億美元的成本基礎上，現金成本通膨率為 8%。所以我想知道，我們是否應該將 20 億美元的削減目標視為部分或全部消除通膨影響並保持基本成本基礎不變，你認為嗎？

And then secondly, on convenience. I mean, your convenience gross margin grew 62% in 2023 for an increase in site numbers of about 19%. So I wanted to ask so far in '24, are you seeing similarly fast improvements in that convenience margin? Or faster, slower, where do we stand?

其次，關於便利性。我的意思是，到 2023 年，您的便利毛利率將增加 62%，而網站數量將增加約 19%。所以我想問一下，24 年到目前為止，您是否看到便利性方面也有類似的快速改善？或者更快，更慢，我們站在哪裡？

Yes. I think on the $2 billion in cost savings, Irene, our intent is to drive that through the business and drive that down to free cash flow delivery. So eating inflation is how I think about these things. And that's why we say at least $2 billion, maybe something above that takes us to beat inflation. But I'd like to try to beat inflation. Especially, as that's starting to mitigate if we look at all -- what all the Central Banks are telling us these days. So I would like to drive that through to bottom line cash flow delivery, and that certainly as a leadership team, we'll be working towards moving forward.

是的。我認為，對於 20 億美元的成本節省，艾琳，我們的目的是透過業務推動這一點，並將其降低到自由現金流交付。所以吃通貨膨脹是我對這些事情的看法。這就是為什麼我們說至少 20 億美元，也許高於這個數字就能讓我們擊敗通貨膨脹。但我想努力擊敗通貨膨脹。尤其是，如果我們看看所有央行這些天告訴我們的情況，這種情況就開始緩解。因此，我希望將其推向現金流交付的底線，當然作為領導團隊，我們將努力向前邁進。

Kate, do you want to tackle the convenience GM question?

凱特，你想解決通用汽車的便利問題嗎？

Yes, thanks Irene. Yes, in terms of convenience, so year-on-year, if you look at 1Q versus 1Q, 2023, you're seeing a significant impact there with regard to TA, obviously, which we acquired last year. That just opened its 300th site, so it's driving significant volume.

是的，謝謝艾琳。是的，就便利性而言，所以與去年同期相比，如果你對比 2023 年第一季和第一季度，你會發現我們去年收購的 TA 顯然受到了重大影響。該公司剛剛開設了第 300 個網站，因此銷量大幅成長。

What I would say on gross margin, if you exclude TA, we're seeing between 9% and 10% per annum growth in our gross margin year-on-year. So that's what gives us confidence with regard to convenience delivery.

關於毛利率，如果排除 TA，我們的毛利率將年增 9% 至 10%。這就是我們對便利配送充滿信心的原因。

We'll take the next question from Lucas Herrmann at BNP. Lucas?

我們將回答法國巴黎銀行盧卡斯‧赫爾曼 (Lucas Herrmann) 提出的下一個問題。盧卡斯？

And a couple, one is very straightforward. Just on the share count and the reduction this quarter. The buybacks, obviously been $1.75 billion, share count reductions, just over $130 million. I presume that the absence of a greater reduction is, because you've issued a lot of stock with employees. The benefits of or not the benefits. But -- and so we'll see more material sums go out on buyback than the $1.75 billion or so you're indicating for future quarters. That was the first.

還有一對，其中一個非常簡單。僅就本季的股份數量和減少情況而言。顯然，回購金額為 17.5 億美元，股票數量減少則略高於 1.3 億美元。我認為沒有更大的減少是因為你向員工發放了大量股票。有好處還是沒有好處。但是，因此我們將看到更多的實質資金用於回購，而不是您為未來幾季指出的 17.5 億美元左右。這是第一個。

And the second was almost, yes, congratulations, you've achieved 30% growth on your 2022 Permian or your 2022 BPX numbers already. Does make this number seem rather modest, shall we say. But I think more importantly, Murray, can you just comment on the profile we should expect for liquids as you move through 2025 --

第二個幾乎是，是的，恭喜你，你的 2022 年二疊紀或 2022 年 BPX 數字已經實現了 30% 的成長。我們可以說，這個數字確實顯得相當溫和。但我認為更重要的是，莫瑞，您能否評論一下 2025 年我們對液體的預期情況——

For BPX?

對於BPX？

-- from the startup of -- yes, for BPX?

-- 從 -- 是的，對於 BPX 來說？

Yes.

是的。

As you said, I mean, you're adding 100,000 barrels a day of liquids capacity, but nothing like that as yet coming through in the numbers, obviously, Bingo or whatever has just started. Just give me some better sense of where you think liquids will actually be at the end of the period.

正如你所說，我的意思是，你每天增加 100,000 桶液體容量，但顯然，賓果遊戲或其他剛開始的數字尚未達到這樣的數字。請讓我更了解您認為在此期間結束時液體的實際情況。

Great. Okay. Fantastic. Kate, you want to take the first one, I'll take second.

偉大的。好的。極好的。凱特，你想拿第一個，我拿第二個。

Yes, sure. So you look, just on employee share dilution, we haven't even made any disclosures yet with regard to the impact on 2024. If you look back over the last couple of years, I think 2022 was around $500 million, and it was just over $670 million last year. It's probably going to be of an order of magnitude in the same kind of ballpark for 2024.

是的，當然。所以你看，僅就員工股權稀釋而言，我們甚至還沒有就對 2024 年的影響進行任何披露。 。到 2024 年，在同樣的情況下，這個數字可能會達到一個數量級。

But obviously, it's going to depend on share price and actually, when employees actually decide to exercise their options, that will drive a level of impact, and we don't have that level of clarity at this point. We'll update you as we step through the year.

但顯然，這將取決於股價，實際上，當員工真​​正決定行使他們的選擇權時，這將產生一定程度的影響，而我們目前還沒有那麼清晰。我們將在這一年向您通報最新情況。

And you would expect to offset that dilution.

你會期望抵消這種稀釋。

The intention to offset, right?

意圖抵銷吧？

Yes.

是的。

Yes, over time.

是的，隨著時間的推移。

Yes. We will offset over time as you say Lucas. So good eagle eye catch. As far as the BPX liquids profile goes, you're building up the profile from somewhere between 100 and 120 kbd depending on reservoir responsiveness in the Permian by 2025, assuming the fourth facility comes online. As well, we're expanding -- we've got most of our rigs focused on the liquid window in the Eagle Ford right now given where natural gas prices are.

是的。正如你所說，盧卡斯，我們會隨著時間的推移而抵消。如此好的鷹眼捕捉力。就 BPX 液體剖面而言，假設第四個設施上線，您將在 2025 年之前根據二疊紀的儲層響應能力從 100 到 120 kbd 之間建立剖面。同樣，我們正在擴張——考慮到天然氣價格，我們目前的大部分鑽孔機都集中在伊格爾福特的液體窗口上。

So there should be an uplift there. I don't have a number at my fingertips. But I can make sure we get that for next quarter. Lucas, if you ask the question again. So there is strong liquids growth as we go across BPX through 2024 and into 2025.

所以那裡應該有一個提升。我手邊沒有號碼。但我可以確保我們會在下個季度實現這一目標。盧卡斯，如果你再問這個問題。因此，隨著我們從 2024 年到 2025 年，BPX 將會出現強勁的液體成長。

We'll take the next question from Peter Low at Redburn. Peter?

我們將回答 Redburn 的 Peter Low 提出的下一個問題。彼得？

Actually another question on BPX production, but this time on the gas side, kind of your gas volumes are still growing quite strongly. A lot of other producers in North America kind of scaling that production. Does that simply reflect your hedging position? Or could you talk a bit about kind of why that growth is coming through in such a weak gas price environment?

實際上是關於 BPX 生產的另一個問題，但這次在天然氣方面，天然氣產量仍在強勁增長。北美的許多其他生產商都在擴大生產規模。這是否僅僅反映了您的對沖頭寸？或者您能否談談為什麼在如此疲軟的天然氣價格環境下成長？

And then just a quick one. Are you able to quantify the impact of price lag effects in the Gulf of Mexico and the UAE on the P&O results in the quarter?

然後是快速的。您能否量化墨西哥灣和阿聯酋的價格滯後效應對本季 P&O 業績的影響？

Okay. Kate, do you want to do the price lag and I'll come back to gas profile.

好的。凱特，你想要價格滯後嗎？

Yes, sure. On price lag, the impact in the quarter was about 0.4, pretty much what we said it was going to be in the trading statement, so we're in line with that.

是的，當然。關於價格滯後，本季的影響約為 0.4，與我們在交易報表中所說的差不多，所以我們符合這一點。

Thank you. On the gas profile, you're right, we've hedged out natural gas at around $4 through '23 and '24. So obviously, we've kept that going while we've got those hedges in place.

謝謝。在天然氣方面，你是對的，我們在 23 年和 24 年期間以 4 美元左右的價格對沖了天然氣。顯然，在我們設定了這些對沖措施的同時，我們也一直保持著這種勢頭。

We've started to reduce rig count right now and point it more to the liquids levels of the Eagle Ford, as I talked about. So you're just doing retention drilling inside the Haynesville. I think what I'd say is the Haynesville is prolific, where we drill and the amount of production that comes online and is sustainable is quite high per well. We're in absolutely the best spot of the Haynesville, through the BHP acquisition. And the teams have really got their capital efficiency down. They've really got their frac structuring down to make sure that we get fabulous production out of these wells.

正如我所說，我們現在已經開始減少鑽機數量，並將其更多地指向鷹福特的液位。所以你只是在海恩斯維爾內部進行固位鑽探。我想我想說的是，海恩斯維爾是多產的，我們在那裡鑽探，每口井的上線且可持續的產量相當高。透過必和必拓的收購，我們絕對處於海恩斯維爾的最佳位置。而且團隊的資本效率確實下降了。他們確實已經制定了壓裂結構，以確保我們從這些井中獲得驚人的產量。

So I think that's what's explaining the growth so far. And then, of course, we've got a choice as we move into 2025 based on what we see on gas pricing about whether or not we ramp the gas drilling back up or we stick with liquids and oil. All I'd say is we'll be very, very value-driven. We won't be volume-driven, and we'll see where the best value, is and then apply our rig count at that rate. So I hope that helps, Peter.

所以我認為這就是迄今為止增長的原因。當然，進入 2025 年時，我們可以根據天然氣定價情況做出選擇，決定增加天然氣鑽探還是堅持使用液體和石油。我想說的是，我們將非常非常以價值為導向。我們不會以數量為導向，我們會看到最佳價值在哪裡，然後以該速度應用我們的鑽機數量。所以我希望這會有所幫助，彼得。

Next question from Kim Fustier, HSBC. Kim?

下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Kim Fustier。金？

Firstly, on CapEx, you said $16 billion of CapEx guidance is now evenly spread over the year as opposed to weighted to the first half. I just wondered if there had been any project slippage to the right?

首先，關於資本支出，您表示 160 億美元的資本支出指引現在平均分佈在全年，而不是加權到上半年。我只是想知道是否有任何項目向右滑動？

And then secondly, sorry for going back to the $2 billion cost savings. But I think you said some of those cost savings will have associated restructuring charges. I wondered if you could provide any detail on the kinds of areas where you might incur such charges. Is this related, for instance, to headcount reductions?

其次，很抱歉又回到了 20 億美元的成本節省。但我認為您說過其中一些成本節省將產生相關的重組費用。我想知道您是否可以提供有關可能產生此類費用的領域的詳細資訊。例如，這是否與裁員有關？

And is the $2 billion figure net of those restructuring costs, or is it going to be lower than $2 billion after those restructuring costs?

20 億美元是扣除重組成本後的淨值，還是扣除重組成本後會低於 20 億美元？

Great. Kate, do you want to tackle both of those?

偉大的。凱特，你想解決這兩個問題嗎？

Yes, sure. So on CapEx, we're still confident of our guidance of around $16 billion for the full year. What's happened over the course of the last couple of months is that a couple of lumpy payments that were due around the back end of the second quarter have just tipped over into the beginning of the third quarter. And we just wanted to make sure that you'd got line of sight to the fact that it probably wasn't so heavily focused on the first half compared to the second half. It's a little bit more evenly now spread around the remaining quarters of the year.

是的，當然。因此，在資本支出方面，我們仍然對全年約 160 億美元的指導充滿信心。過去幾個月發生的情況是，第二季末到期的幾筆大筆付款剛剛轉到第三季初。我們只是想確保您能夠看到這樣一個事實：與下半場相比，上半場可能沒有那麼受關注。現在，這一情況在今年剩餘的幾季中分佈得更均勻了。

With regard to [RATX], we'll update you in due course as we get clear on the implications of that. At the moment, we are allowing each business and function to work on their own plans to deliver efficiencies. And as we said, some of that will have some RATX associated with it, but not all of it. And as we get clear on the scale of the numbers and when we report them, we'll update you.

關於 [RATX]，當我們明確其含義後，我們將及時向您通報最新情況。目前，我們允許每個業務和職能部門按照自己的計劃開展工作，以提高效率。正如我們所說，其中一些會與一些 RATX 相關，但不是全部。當我們清楚這些數字的規模並報告這些數字時，我們會向您通報最新情況。

We will take the next question from Menno Hulshof at TD Cowen. Menno, over to you.

我們將回答 TD Cowen 的 Menno Hulshof 提出的下一個問題。門諾，交給你了。

So the first is on the simplification of the org structure. You've clearly made significant headway already, but where do you think you stand in that process?

首先是組織架構的簡化。顯然你已經取得了重大進展，但你認為你在這個過程中處於什麼位置？

And then the second is yet another follow-up on the $2 billion target, and apologies if you talked about this already. But can we get a rough breakdown on how much each of the 4 initiatives is expected to contribute and whether achievement of the $2 billion is expected to be fairly linear over the next 2.5 years?

第二個是 20 億美元目標的另一個後續行動，如果您已經談論過這一點，我深表歉意。但我們能否粗略地了解這 4 項舉措預計將貢獻多少資金，以及預計在未來 2.5 年內實現 20 億美元的目標是否會相當線性？

Sure. Why don't I tackle both of those since I gave you the last 2 ones. Kate, I'll give you a relief. You should think about the 4 cost initiatives each delivering around a 1/4 of the benefit. It may end up being different than that, but that's a good estimate for right now.

當然。既然我給了你最後兩個問題，為什麼我不解決這兩個問題呢？凱特，我會讓你鬆一口氣。您應該考慮 4 項成本計劃，每項計劃可帶來約 1/4 的收益。最終結果可能會有所不同，但目前這是一個不錯的估計。

And as far as the linear nature, we said it's by the back end of '26, and it will take time to do some of these things. So, I wouldn't count on much impact in '24 and '25. It should be coming in through '26 as we work our way through it.

至於線性性質，我們說是在 26 年底，完成其中一些事情需要時間。因此，我預計 24 和 25 年不會產生太大影響。當我們努力完成它時，它應該會在 26 年到來。

On org structure itself, we have announced the first stage of simplification. There will be multiple steps along the way, maybe 2 or 3 steps is how I'm thinking about it. We have reduced my direct reports down to 10. We've combined some functions inside the organization as well. Those need to be well managed. We have to have very, very strong management of chain, as we go through this and make sure that safety is paramount as we do it. And we expect in due course to announce another set of simplification steps to try to make the place easier to work in maybe around year-end, we'll see that next step. So that's what's happening on simplification inside the company. Craig, back to you.

在組織結構本身上，我們宣告了第一階段的簡化。一路上會有多個步驟，我的想法可能是 2 或 3 個步驟。我們已將我的直接下屬減少到 10 名。這些需要得到很好的管理。當我們經歷這個過程時，我們必須對鏈條進行非常非常強大的管理，並確保安全是我們這樣做的首要任務。我們預計在適當的時候宣布另一組簡化步驟，以使該地方更容易工作，也許在年底左右，我們將看到下一步。這就是公司內部的簡化過程中發生的事情。克雷格，回到你身邊。

3 questions left. We'll take the first one from Henry Tarr at Berenberg.

還剩 3 個問題。我們將從貝倫貝格的亨利·塔爾那裡得到第一個。

2 quickly, one on the outlook for U.S. offshore wind at this point and your Beacon Wind project, how are you thinking about offshore wind broadly in the U.S. and that project moving forward?

2 快速介紹一下目前美國離岸風電的前景以及您的 Beacon Wind 項目，您如何看待美國的離岸風電以及該項目的進展？

And then just coming back to a comment about the potential to be countercyclical in low carbon, where do you see sort of attractive returns today in low carbon either within your own business or sort of externally where might you be looking across that space?

然後回到關於低碳反週期潛力的評論，您認為當今低碳在您自己的業務中或在外部您可能會在該領域尋找哪些有吸引力的回報？

Great, Henry. I think on -- I'll tackle both of these. I think on Beacon, look, we're going slow on that one. Infrastructure needs to develop off the Northeast Coast of the U.S. We need to see some changes in pricing mechanisms moving forward so that we can move -- more to an integrated model like we see in Europe. And it's hard to predict at what pace that will happen. But I think on Beacon will be going slow, I think, is what I'd say for now.

太棒了，亨利。我想——我會解決這兩個問題。我認為在 Beacon 上，你看，我們在這方面進展緩慢。美國東北海岸的基礎設施需要發展。 我們需要看到定價機制發生一些變化，以便我們能夠轉向——更多地轉向我們在歐洲看到的一體化模式。而且很難預測這種情況會以什麼速度發生。但我認為 Beacon 的進展會很慢，我想，這是我現在要說的。

As far as countercyclical, I'll have to be careful on this one because the second I say anything about it, I'll have too much competition. So, I think what I'd say is, you know the -- you know my hierarchy of returns on the growth engines from biogas to biofuel to convenience to electrification are the places that are quite interesting to me. And you can figure out what the countercyclical moment might be inside some of those based on what's been happening recently.

就反週期而言，我必須小心這一點，因為一旦我對此發表任何言論，我就會面臨太多競爭。所以，我想我要說的是，你知道，你知道我對成長引擎的回報等級（從沼氣到生物燃料，再到便利性到電氣化）是我非常感興趣的地方。你可以根據最近發生的事情找出其中一些可能出現的反週期時刻。

And I'll stop myself saying any more than that because my mergers and acquisitions team might shoot me if I say any more. So I hope that gave you enough hints Henry to think about. And in due course, you'll see or you won't see announcements, let's see.

我會停止說更多的話，因為如果我再說下去，我的併購團隊可能會開槍打我。所以我希望這給了你足夠的暗示亨利去思考。在適當的時候，您會看到或不會看到公告，讓我們拭目以待。

I think, Henry, just to reiterate, obviously, we've laid out our CapEx guidance organic and inorganic in totality. So there's not any leakage.

我想，亨利，只是重申一下，顯然，我們已經全面製定了有機和無機的資本支出指導。所以不會有任何洩漏。

CEO doesn't get to spend more than 16, and that was code from Craig.

CEO 的支出不得超過 16 美元，這是克雷格的代碼。

I said IR, sorry. Thank you, boss. And then the last question -- sorry, I thought there was 2, but the last question from Giacomo Romeo at Jefferies. Giacomo, thanks for being patient.

我說IR，抱歉。謝謝老闆。然後是最後一個問題——抱歉，我以為有 2 個，但最後一個問題是傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的賈科莫·羅密歐 (Giacomo Romeo) 提出的。賈科莫，感謝您的耐心等待。

The first question, if I can just ask again about this countercyclical. I just wanted to check with you, Murray. I think that on the Q4 call, you talked about the fact that you've done a lot of acquisitions in the previous years and you were sort of focusing more on integration. As somehow this message change or what kind of size of acquisition countercyclical deal we could expect.

第一個問題，我是否可以再問一下這個反週期的問題。我只是想跟你確認一下，穆雷。我認為在第四季度的電話會議上，您談到了您在前幾年進行了大量收購的事實，並且您更加關注整合。隨著訊息的某種方式發生變化，或者我們可以預期反週期收購交易的規模是多少。

The second is on the Namibia farm-in. Just trying to understand, when Azule as who was set up in '22, was always the -- was your thinking always about making it your West Africa venture? Or has this somewhat evolved over time?

第二個是在納米比亞農場。只是想了解一下，當 Azule 成立於 22 年時，您是否一直在考慮將其打造為您的西非企業？或是隨著時間的推移這已經有所演變？

And just on the deal in Namibia specifically, the PEL 85 is on shallower waters than versus where other discoveries have been made. Just trying to understand what gives you confidence that the play will extend on to shallower waters?

特別是在納米比亞的交易中，PEL 85 所在的水域比其他發現的水域要淺。只是想了解是什麼讓您有信心將遊戲擴展到較淺的水域？

Yes. Let's see, on countercyclical, what I'd say is, we have a tight capital frame at $16 billion in '24 and $16 billion in '25. Last time I communicated with you, I said, we've done an awful lot of acquisitions from TA to Archaea, to Lightsource to EDF and it's time to bring -- now bring the synergies out of these. And I gave you a caveat saying, however, we will consider 1 or 2 more of these things moving forward.

是的。讓我們來看看，在反週期方面，我想說的是，我們的資本框架緊張，24 年為 160 億美元，25 年為 160 億美元。上次我與你們溝通時，我說過，我們已經進行了大量收購，從 TA 到 Archaea，從 Lightsource 到 EDF，現在是時候發揮這些協同效應了。不過，我向您提出了一個警告，我們會繼續考慮其中的一兩件事。

So, I'm not out of line with what I said in February, and what I said in the previous quarter, Giacomo. I'm in line with that. It's one or 2 opportunities that we see over the next couple of years. And I guess, the point was more I'm not going procyclical in oil, I think countercyclical and transition while prices are low. And let's see if we can actually prosecute anything.

因此，賈科莫，我在二月和上一季所說的話並沒有不一致。我同意這一點。未來幾年我們會看到一兩個機會。我想，更重要的是，我不會在石油領域採取順週期策略，我認為在價格較低的情況下會進行反週期和轉型。讓我們看看我們是否可以真正起訴任何事情。

Kate, do you want to talk about origins of Azule, I can tackle the geology question.

Kate，你想談談 Azule 的起源嗎？

Yes, sure. So I mean, when Azule was set up with DE&I, it was a great marriage of assets, ours were later life generating significant cash and E&I were earlier like. So it was a very nice symbiotic relationship, very similar to the one we created with Aker BP. And since we formed it, we've taken just over $5 billion of distributions.

是的，當然。所以我的意思是，當 Azule 與 DE&I 成立時，這是一次偉大的資產聯姻，我們的資產後來產生了大量現金，而 E&I 則更早。所以這是一種非常好的共生關係，與我們與 Aker BP 建立的關係非常相似。自從我們成立以來，我們已經獲得了超過 50 億美元的分配。

A couple of points I'd say on the finances with regard to Azule and Namibia is it has been set up to be a self-funded vehicle and to continue to distribute back to its shareholders. For the first part of Namibia, it's 2 exploration wells. Let's see what happens with that. Don't expect a material impact on the distributions back to us or E&I, but let's see what happens with those.

關於 Azule 和 Namibia 的財務狀況，我想說的幾點是，它已被設立為自籌資金的工具，並繼續向股東分配。納米比亞的第一部分有兩口勘探井。讓我們看看會發生什麼。不要期望對我們或 E&I 的分配產生重大影響，但讓我們看看這些會發生什麼。

If I channel my inner explorer, really water depth doesn't matter. It's what's happening subsurface. I think the interesting bid about these ones, Galp has had some discoveries. You've seen what their announcements are. When you look at the seismic on the block that we picked up from Rhino it's a direct extension of the 4 or 5 structures that are in the Galp in the gout blocks at the same geologic depth.

如果我引導我內心的探索者，水深真的並不重要。這就是地下發生的事情。我認為關於這些有趣的出價，Galp 已經有了一些發現。您已經看到了他們的公告。當您查看我們從 Rhino 獲取的區塊上的地震時，它是 Galp 中相同地質深度的痛風區塊中 4 或 5 個結構的直接延伸。

So who knows what happens with exploration. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. But there are very clear structures in the Galp block. There are very clear structures in the Rhino block. They lay in a pattern. They should have the same charge. They should have the same origin. Of course, there's geologic risk around it. But water depth really doesn't play into it.

所以誰知道探索會發生什麼。有時有效，有時無效。但Galp區塊的結構非常清晰。 Rhino 區塊中有非常清晰的結構。它們排列成一個圖案。它們應該具有相同的電荷。他們應該有相同的起源。當然，它也存在地質風險。但水深確實沒有影響。

So let's see, Giacomo. Let's see what happens. You have to drill the wells to find out what's actually down there. I think with that Craig, shall we close.

讓我們看看，賈科莫。讓我們看看發生了什麼。你必須鑽探井才能找出下面到底有什麼。我想有了克雷格，我們就可以結束了。

So thanks, everybody, for listening to us. Another decent quarter out of BP. I'm really pleased about bringing growth to the market. So ACE getting up online in Azerbaijan, BPX expanding their operations with the third plant in the Lower 48 in the Permian, Archaea, expanding, one big plant, 5 more in commissioning and we've got great momentum around cost as well.

謝謝大家聆聽我們的講話。 BP 又一個不錯的季度。我真的很高興能為市場帶來成長。因此，ACE 在阿塞拜疆上線，BPX 擴大了業務，在二疊紀盆地下48 盆地的第三家工廠，Archaea，擴大了一個大型工廠，另外5 個工廠正在調試中，我們在成本方面也取得了巨大的動力。

So I'm very optimistic about growth for BP as we look through the next couple of years and hitting our targets, and in due course, updating you about what's beyond that. So thanks very much for listening, and I look forward to chatting with you next quarter.

因此，我對 BP 的成長非常樂觀，因為我們展望未來幾年並實現我們的目標，並在適當的時候向您通報超出這一目標的最新情況。非常感謝您的聆聽，我期待下個季度與您交談。