英國石油 (BP) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, everybody, to BP's fourth quarter and full year results call.

歡迎大家參加 BP 第四季和全年業績電話會議。

We'll be focusing today's call on the fourth quarter and 2024 performance and the contents of the video that I hope many of you will have seen by now.

今天的電話會議將重點討論第四季度和 2024 年的業績以及視訊內容，我希望你們中的許多人現在已經看過了。

I also understand there is significant interest in our Capital Markets update in a couple of weeks' time.

我還了解到，人們對我們幾週後發布的資本市場更新非常感興趣。

However, I'm sure you'll also appreciate that we can't comment on any issues relating to that today.

不過，我相信您也會理解，我們今天不能對與此相關的任何問題發表評論。

So please focus your questions accordingly.

因此，請集中討論你的問題。

With that, let me hand over to Murray.

現在，讓我把麥克風交給穆雷。

Thanks, Craig, and thanks, everyone, for joining Kate and I on the call today.

謝謝克雷格，也謝謝大家今天參加凱特和我舉行的電話會議。

When I look back at 2024, we've achieved a lot.

當我回顧 2024 年時，我們取得了許多成就。

We made significant strategic progress, taking decisive action in reshaping our portfolio and laying the foundations for growth, including 10 new FIDs, including Cascadia and Tangguh, new access to Iraq and India, divesting tail assets in Trinidad, exiting the Empire Wind in the US offshore, decapitalizing our offshore wind business by agreeing to form a joint venture, focusing our EV charging business and our hydrogen pipeline, acquiring full ownership of BP Bioenergy and Lightsource bp and recently announcing our intention to sell the Gelsinger refinery.

我們取得了重大戰略進展，採取果斷行動重塑我們的投資組合並為增長奠定基礎，包括 10 個新的 FID，包括 Cascadia 和 Tangguh，進入伊拉克和印度的新途徑，剝離特立尼達的尾部資產，退出美國海上 Empire Wind，通過同意成立汽車合資企業對我們的海上風電業務進行電動資本化，專注於我們的電動投資，業務油廠。

In two weeks' time, we will build on the actions taken in the last 12 months and provide a comprehensive update at our Capital Markets event.

兩週後，我們將在過去 12 個月所採取的行動的基礎上，在我們的資本市場活動中提供全面的最新消息。

It will be a fundamental reset of our strategy.

這將是我們策略的一次根本性調整。

It will demonstrate our focus on actions to drive performance, and it will enable us to grow cash flow and returns and shareholder value.

它將展示我們專注於推動業績的行動，並使我們能夠增加現金流和回報以及股東價值。

With that said, let me focus on today and briefly recap our highlights for this year.

話雖如此，讓我集中討論今天並簡要回顧一下我們今年的亮點。

Many of our businesses performed well during 2024.

我們的許多業務在 2024 年表現良好。

Upstream production was around 2.36 million barrels per day, up 2% this year with plant reliability above 95%.

上游產量約為每天 236 萬桶，今年成長 2%，工廠可靠性超過 95%。

It was a good year for trading and its track record for delivering an average 4% uplift to group ROACE now extends to the past five years despite the lack of volatility.

這是交易豐收的一年，儘管波動性不大，但其過去五年的業績記錄仍使集團 ROACE 平均上漲 4%。

But we have had a difficult year in refining with a widening outage in 1Q and the challenging margin environment, and we were also impacted by the weaker biofuels' margins and trucking recession impact on TA.

但我們在煉油業務方面度過了艱難的一年，第一季停產範圍擴大，利潤環境充滿挑戰，我們也受到生物燃料利潤率下降和卡車運輸衰退對 TA 的影響。

We remain firmly focused on taking action to improve our performance across refining and on the work to integrate our recently acquired businesses into BP, driving the synergies and underlying performance that we expect.

我們將繼續堅定地致力於採取行動提高整個煉油業務的業績，並致力於將我們最近收購的業務整合到 BP，從而實現我們預期的協同效應和基本業績。

Finally, on distributions, we grew our dividend per share by 10% and announced $7 billion of share buybacks, including a $1.75 billion announced today.

最後，在分配方面，我們將每股股息提高了 10%，並宣布回購 70 億美元股票，其中包括今天宣布的 17.5 億美元。

With that summary, let's go to Q&A.

有了上述總結，我們來進入問答環節。

Over to you to get us started.

交給你來幫助我們開始吧。

Craig?

克雷格？

Thanks, Murray.

謝謝，默里。

Given my earlier remarks, I'm going to ask you to limit yourselves to one question so we can let everyone get a chance.

鑑於我先前的發言，我將要求你們將提問限制在一個問題上，以便讓每個人都有機會提問。

We'll look to close the call by 1:45 PM time.

我們將在下午 1:45 結束通話。

There's obviously plenty of time in two weeks' time for more questions.

顯然，兩週的時間有足夠的時間回答更多問題。

And of course, the IR team is available to follow up.

當然，IR 團隊可以進行跟進。

So with that, let's get started.

那麼，讓我們開始吧。

I think we will take the first question from Josh Stone at UBS, please.

我想我們將首先回答瑞銀的 Josh Stone 提出的問題。

Yeah.

是的。

Hi, Craig.

你好，克雷格。

Good afternoon.

午安.

With my one question, I'll focus on the refining and trading performance this quarter.

我的一個問題將重點放在本季的煉油和交易表現。

It was another weak quarter, but you talked about improvement plans.

這又是一個疲軟的季度，但您談到了改進計劃。

So I just want to get a sense how confident are you the issues you experienced in 2024 are now in the rearview mirror?

所以我只是想了解一下，您對 2024 年遇到的問題現在已成為過去有多大信心？

And what more can be done to improve the profitability of that division?

還可以做些什麼來提高該部門的獲利能力？

And maybe if you can give any early insights of how trading has performed during the first quarter, given we're almost halfway through.

也許您能對第一季的交易表現提供一些初步見解，因為我們已經快要過半了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, Josh.

謝謝，喬希。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

You're right, it was a challenging year for refining.

您說得對，對於煉油業來說，這是充滿挑戰的一年。

The industry in the basins in which we are operating were probably bottom of cycle for margin and pricing.

我們所在盆地的產業利潤和定價可能已處於週期底部。

So I think that's an industry-wide issue that we're a part of as well.

所以我認為這是整個產業的問題，我們也是其中的一部分。

But of course, we had the outage in 1Q in Whiting as well, an electrical fault that tripped the plant.

當然，第一季惠廷也發生停電事故，電氣故障導致工廠跳脫。

In 4Q itself, reliability was fine across the portfolio.

就第四季而言，整個投資組合的可靠性都很好。

We, of course, had a massive turnaround at Whiting.

當然，我們在惠廷實現了巨大的轉變。

It was a huge program.

這是一個龐大的項目。

We replaced the coker tops, which is an incredible effort by the teams.

我們更換了焦化器頂部，這是團隊所做的令人難以置信的努力。

And so that obviously dramatically impacted the results in 4Q.

這顯然對第四季的業績產生了巨大影響。

As we look forward, we are confident that we will continue to improve the business.

展望未來，我們有信心繼續改善業務。

Gordon can talk about this in a few weeks' time when we talk through what we're doing to improve the refining business.

幾週後，當我們討論如何改善煉油業務時，戈登可以談論這個問題。

We're focused on four things.

我們重點關註四件事。

First of all, getting plant reliability back to that 96%, making sure that we don't have material trips.

首先，讓工廠可靠性恢復到 96%，確保我們不會發生重大事故。

Turnarounds are going well.

扭轉形勢進展順利。

Maintenance is going well, but we have to stick to it and make sure we hit that 96%, and Gordon and the team are laser-beam focused on that.

維護進展順利，但我們必須堅持下去，確保達到 96% 的水平，戈登和團隊正全神貫注於此。

Out of that then comes the ability to commercially optimize.

由此而來的是商業優化的能力。

When you have outages, you can't commercially optimize.

當出現停電時，您就無法進行商業優化。

So we think between getting back to 96% and steady operations, that then lets us start to optimize and earn more money.

因此，我們認為，在恢復到 96% 並實現穩定營運之間，我們可以開始優化並賺取更多的錢。

The third thing I'd say is there's a strong cost agenda across all of CMP, and that will really start to take root in refining in 2025.

我想說的第三件事是，整個 CMP 都有很強的成本議程，而且這將在 2025 年真正開始在煉油行業中紮根。

And last, we will have a year of much lower complexity in '25 than '24.

最後，25年的複雜性將比24年低得多。

That should all take us back to profitability.

這一切都將使我們恢復獲利。

And I think we feel confident in that.

我想我們對此充滿信心。

And again, in two weeks' time, Gordon can take you through those plans.

再說一次，兩週後，戈登可以帶你了解這些計畫。

On trading, it was an average year, a 4% year.

從交易角度來看，這是平均水準的一年，成長率為 4%。

Despite the lack of volatility on the oil and refined products side, I think you'll have seen some of that reported out of competitors about how much -- how far down they were.

儘管石油和成品油方面波動不大，但我想你會看到競爭對手的一些報告，說明他們的價格下跌了多少。

So the teams did well to make sure that we continue to hit that track record that we've had over the past five years.

因此，各團隊表現出色，確保我們繼續保持過去五年來的良好記錄。

Now, looking forward, refining margins started the year very bad in January.

現在展望未來，今年 1 月煉油利潤率開局就很糟糕。

They're starting to uptick now as we move into tar season globally.

隨著全球進入焦油季節，焦油價格開始上漲。

I think the RMMs are up a bit, and we're starting to see some volatility.

我認為 RMM 有所上升，我們開始看到一些波動。

So I think that's probably all I'll say, Josh, but we are laser beam focused on it.

所以我想這可能就是我要說的全部了，喬希，但我們的注意力都集中在這一點上。

We know we need to do better, and we will.

我們知道我們需要做得更好，而且我們會的。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Thanks, Josh.

謝謝，喬希。

We'll turn next to Peter Low at Redburn.

接下來我們來談談雷德伯恩的彼得洛 (Peter Low)。

Hi.

你好。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

I just had a question on some of your recent upstream announcements.

我只是對您最近的一些上游公告有疑問。

So your deal with ONGC and then also the redevelopment of Kirkuk.

所以你與印度石油天然氣公司達成了協議，然後也重建了基爾庫克。

Can you perhaps talk a bit more about what you found attractive about those opportunities and then potentially the sort of returns you might see for those sorts of technical service contract type agreements?

您能否再詳細談談這些機會的吸引力何在，以及您可能從這些技術服務合約類型的協議中獲得什麼樣的回報？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Great, Peter.

太好了，彼得。

Thanks for the questions.

感謝您的提問。

Look, we've established a pretty strong track record in the Middle East and Far East to being able to help operators with late light developments.

你看，我們在中東和遠東地區已經建立了相當良好的業績記錄，能夠幫助營運商進行後期開發。

So as water starts to come into developments, as you have to develop tricky reservoirs, we've built a very, very strong reputation, started in Alaska, moved to is a good example of it, et cetera.

因此，當水開始進入開發項目時，當您必須開發棘手的水庫時，我們已經建立了非常非常好的聲譽，從阿拉斯加開始，搬到這裡就是一個很好的例子，等等。

So we have a very strong track record in this, and that's what's enabling us to take advantage of these opportunities for direct access like in India and like in Iraq.

因此，我們在這方面有著非常良好的業績記錄，這使我們能夠利用這些機會直接進入印度和伊拉克等國家。

In ONGC, it's a services contract.

在印度石油天然氣公司 (ONGC)，這是一個服務合約。

We're very pleased with it.

我們對此非常滿意。

We don't deploy cost or capital.

我們不部署成本或資本。

Instead, we provide people and advice to drive stronger performance inside that business.

相反，我們提供人員和建議來推動該業務更強勁的業績。

I can't really talk about what the commercial returns are, but they're quite attractive for India, and they're quite attractive for us.

我實際上無法談論商業回報是什麼，但它們對印度來說非常有吸引力，對我們來說也很有吸引力。

We found a nice middle ground where both sides actually can do very well for each other if we can start to drive that production higher.

我們找到了一個很好的中間立場，如果我們能夠開始提高產量，雙方實際上都可以做得很好。

And we believe, based on all the due diligence we've done that we can certainly help India with that.

我們相信，基於我們所做的一切盡職調查，我們一定能夠幫助印度實現這一目標。

And then on Kirkuk, we're in the final throes of the negotiations now, five domes of oil, 20 billion barrels yet to produce, a competitive PSA agreement, competitive internationally.

然後是基爾庫克問題，我們目前正處於談判的最後階段，五個石油穹頂，還有 200 億桶石油尚未生產，這是一項具有競爭力的 PSA 協議，具有國際競爭力。

And of course, it's because of our track record inside the nation that we're able to help them there.

當然，正是由於我們在該國的良好記錄，我們才能夠在那裡為他們提供幫助。

So that -- we'll give you more on Kirkuk once we've finished off the negotiations and announce it.

因此，一旦我們完成談判並宣布結果，我們將向大家提供更多有關基爾庫克的消息。

Let's see when the teams can get to completion on that.

讓我們看看各隊何時能夠完成這一目標。

But we feel very excited about that, and it will be internationally competitive, and we look forward to telling you more about that.

但我們對此感到非常興奮，它將具有國際競爭力，我們期待告訴大家更多相關資訊。

Hopefully, at Capital Markets Day, we can update you more on that.

希望在資本市場日，我們能夠向您提供更多有關此方面的最新資訊。

Thanks, Peter.

謝謝，彼得。

We'll take the next question from Biraj Borkhataria at RBC.

我們將回答 RBC 的 Biraj Borkhataria 提出的下一個問題。

Hi.

你好。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

And firstly, thank you for the breakdown on the operating cost side, and it's good to see the sort of internal lens versus what we see.

首先，感謝您對營運成本的細分，很高興看到與我們看到的內部視角相比。

Just thinking about your strategy.

只是在思考你的策略。

It looks like you're going to be including a more capital-light approach and more JVs and things like that, like the deal.

看起來你將要採用更輕資本的策略和更多的合資企業以及諸如此類的事情，就像這筆交易一樣。

As it relates to your cost reduction targets, are you able to say the sort of quantum of costs that will come off your balance sheet as part of the transactions that have already been agreed?

至於您的成本削減目標，您能否說明一下在已經達成協議的交易中將從您的資產負債表中扣除的成本量是多少？

Just so I can get a sense of the magnitude of that.

這樣我就能了解其嚴重性。

Yes.

是的。

Biraj, thank you for the comment with regard to our cost disclosure.

Biraj，感謝您對我們的成本揭露的評論。

We have tried to help people by giving, I think, quite a lot more granularity and specificity than we have done previously.

我認為，我們已盡力透過提供比以前更詳細和具體的資訊來幫助人們。

So I'm pleased that, that has worked for you so far.

所以我很高興，到目前為止這對你很有幫助。

So let's see.

讓我們看看。

With regards to the capital-light approach on renewables, I think for capital, let's leave that to Capital Markets Day.

關於再生能源的輕資本方法，我認為對於資本，我們把它留給資本市場日。

We'll update you comprehensively with regard to capital right across the portfolio at that point.

屆時我們將向您全面通報整個投資組合的資本狀況。

And with regard to cash costs, so we have already been successful in reducing some of our cash costs through focusing our portfolio, which we talked about on previous quarterly results calls.

關於現金成本，我們已經成功透過集中我們的投資組合降低了部分現金成本，我們在先前的季度業績電話會議上討論過這一點。

It's part and parcel of the $750 million of structural reductions that we've delivered this year, which is great progress.

這是我們今年實施的 7.5 億美元結構性削減計劃的一部分，這是一個巨大的進展。

And beyond that, we will just update you as we go.

除此之外，我們也會隨時向您更新進度。

We will try and be as specific as we can quarter-on-quarter on the areas where we are delivering cost reductions and point out where they're coming from with regard to third-party supply chain or focusing the portfolio.

我們將盡可能具體地逐季度說明我們在哪些領域實現了成本削減，並指出這些削減來自哪些方面，包括第三方供應鏈或投資組合重點。

So we will make sure we give you enough granularity on that going forward, too.

因此，我們將確保在未來為您提供足夠的詳細資訊。

Thanks, Biraj.

謝謝，Biraj。

We'll take the next question from Doug Leggate at Wolfe.

我們將回答 Wolfe 的 Doug Leggate 提出的下一個問題。

Good morning, everyone, or good afternoon over there.

大家早安，或是下午好。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I guess it's a question for Kate.

我想這是問凱特的問題。

Kate, I wonder if you could just help us with the continued commentary around the $40 breakeven, but to help us benchmark the expectations for what you announced later this month.

凱特，我想知道您是否可以幫助我們繼續評論 40 美元的盈虧平衡點，但幫助我們對您本月晚些時候宣布的預期進行基準測試。

And what I'm trying to understand specifically is you had this $900 million-something -- $917 million one-off cost, I think it was this quarter.

我想具體了解的是，你們有 9 億多美元到 9.17 億美元的一次性成本，我想是這個季度的。

And I'm trying to understand what that was.

我正試著理解那是什麼。

How that influences your view of where the run rate breakeven is currently and whether the financing charges below the operating line are included in that definition.

這如何影響您對目前營運率損益平衡的看法，以及營業線以下的融資費用是否包含在該定義中。

So just help us benchmark the starting point ahead of the Capital Markets Day.

所以只需幫助我們在資本市場日之前確定起點的基準即可。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Doug.

謝謝，道格。

With regard to the balance point, we'll update the fin frame in totality in two weeks' time.

關於平衡點，我們會在兩週後對魚鰭框架進行整體更新。

The $40 balance point is important to us internally as we think about our dividend, it's a key part of ensuring that it's a resilient through cycle.

當我們考慮股息時，40 美元的平衡點對於我們內部來說很重要，它是確保股息在整個週期內具有彈性的關鍵部分。

In terms of the one-off, so there were a couple of one-offs that we called out specifically in oil and gas.

就一次性事件而言，我們特別提到了石油和天然氣領域的幾個一次性事件。

I don't recognize the $900 million.

我不認識這9億美元。

I recognize about $400 million that we highlighted in the OPO segment.

我知道我們在 OPO 部分重點強調了約 4 億美元。

There was $300 million in there, which was associated with the hedging and income from a sale of royalties and about $100 million in the gas and low carbon, really trying to be transparent in helping you as we move towards the first quarter I wanted to demonstrate there were a few things in our fourth quarter results that are unlikely to be repeated in the first quarter.

其中有 3 億美元與對沖和特許權使用費銷售收入有關，約 1 億美元與天然氣和低碳有關，我們確實試圖透明地幫助您，因為我們即將進入第一季度，我想證明我們第四季度業績中的一些事情不太可能在第一季度重演。

But I'm happy that we sweep up after the call if you have a different number in your head.

但如果您的心裡想的有不同的數字，我很樂意在通話結束後進行清理。

Yes.

是的。

Doug, the financing costs are inside the balance point, including hybrid and interest expense.

道格，融資成本在平衡點之內，包括混合費用和利息費用。

That's all part of the balance point.

這都是平衡點的一部分。

Thank you, guys.

謝謝你們。

The $917 million remeasurement of joint venture step acquisition is what I'm referring to.

我指的是對合資企業分步收購進行 9.17 億美元的重新評估。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, I can tackle that one very quickly.

是的，我可以很快解決這個問題。

So the transactions that we had with regard to the acquisition of BP BioEnergy and Lightsource BP were both step transition -- both step transactions as we already own significant percentage of the equity in those organizations.

因此，我們收購 BP BioEnergy 和 Lightsource BP 的交易都是逐步交易——都是逐步交易，因為我們已經擁有這些組織相當大比例的股權。

It's just an accounting term.

這只是一個會計術語。

The $917 million were both arising with regard to Lightsource BP.

這 9.17 億美元都與 Lightsource BP 有關。

It's just a remeasurement of the existing equity we held in Lightsource BP and a remeasurement of the assets that we hold for sale in regard to Lightsource BP.

這只是我們在 Lightsource BP 持有的現有股權的重新衡量，以及我們持有的有關 Lightsource BP 待售資產的重新衡量。

So it's a technical accounting noncash.

所以它是一種技術性非現金會計。

Thanks, Doug.

謝謝，道格。

We'll take the next question from Al Syme at Citi.

我們將回答花旗銀行的 Al Syme 提出的下一個問題。

Not the front on the strategy update, but you've put the words fundamental reset out there in today's press release.

雖然不是關於策略更新的正面報道，但你在今天的新聞稿中提到了「基本重置」這個詞。

So can I ask what's going on in the last few months in the environment and in your discussions with the Board to change the emphasis from the prior in the use, which I think was mid-strategy update?

那麼，我可以問一下過去幾個月的環境狀況以及您與董事會的討論情況，以改變先前的使用重點嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Al.

謝謝，艾爾。

All I'd say is, if you look back at the degree of activity we've had over the past 12 months, it's pretty significant.

我只想說，如果回顧過去 12 個月我們的活動程度，就會發現它相當重要。

We have sanctioned 10 new projects, top 30 projects across the business.

我們已批准10個新項目，整個業務範圍內排名前30的項目。

We've accessed new countries.

我們已經進入了新的國家。

We've completely decapitalized renewables.

我們已經徹底取消了再生能源的資本化。

So it's a sizable shift in the portfolio that we have moving forward.

因此，這是我們未來投資組合中的重大轉變。

And given the degree of that change, it's now time to reset the strategy and put a new beginning for us.

鑑於這種變化的程度，現在是時候重新制定策略並開啟新的開始了。

So it's just -- we've done an awful lot over the past 12 months.

所以——過去 12 個月我們做了很多事。

And this is the right time now to share that with you, the community, and I'm excited to be sharing it with you in a couple of weeks' time.

現在是與你們、與社區分享這個消息的最佳時機，我很高興能在幾週後與你們分享這個消息。

It's going to be great.

這將會非常棒。

So it's not the externalities of the macro environment

因此，這不是宏觀環境的外在因素

No.

不。

Thanks, Al.

謝謝，艾爾。

We'll take the next question from Irene Himona at Bernstein

下一個問題由 Bernstein 的 Irene Himona 提出

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good afternoon.

午安.

I had a question on your transition engine EBITDA.

我對您的過渡引擎 EBITDA 有疑問。

I presume this is the last time we will get EBITDA given you're retiring the metric.

鑑於你們將不再使用這項指標，我估計這是我們最後一次獲得 EBITDA 了。

But I wanted to focus on bioenergy.

但我想專注於生物能源。

It seems adjusted to the same definition that has remained flat at around $700 million a year.

它似乎已調整至相同的定義，即保持穩定在每年 7 億美元左右。

Can you give us a sense within that of the split between biofuels and biogas?

您能為我們介紹一下生物燃料和沼氣之間的差異嗎？

The question is really about our care.

問題其實在於我們的護理。

Can we assume that has improved within that total since we know that biofuels margins were particularly weak.

由於我們知道生物燃料的利潤率特別低，我們是否可以假設總數有所改善。

I mean, liquid biofuels?

我的意思是液體生物燃料？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

Great, Irene.

太好了，艾琳。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Archaea continues to improve, yes.

是的，古菌正在不斷進步。

Last year, we got nine out of the 15 plants online.

去年，我們 15 家工廠中有 9 家已上線。

We wanted to three more are now online and functioning.

我們希望另外三個現已上線並正常運作。

We have three still flowing to midstream, but not yet able to declare start-up.

我們有三條河仍流向中游，但尚未能宣布啟動。

So we've established 12 new plants this year, which obviously throw through earnings from '24 into '25.

因此，我們今年建立了 12 家新工廠，這顯然會使 2024 年到 2025 年的利潤增加。

So certainly, we're seeing improvement in Archaea as we move forward.

因此，我們確實看到，隨著我們不斷前進，古菌正在不斷進步。

As you rightly point out, bioenergy is challenging -- or sorry, biofuels are rightfully challenging, especially in Europe, it's quite challenging.

正如您正確指出的那樣，生物能源具有挑戰性——或者抱歉，生物燃料確實具有挑戰性，尤其是在歐洲，它相當具有挑戰性。

So we don't see a lot of performance momentum inside biofuels in Europe.

因此，我們並沒有看到歐洲生物燃料市場有太大的成長動能。

That's why we're being very, very careful with the sanctioning any new plants.

這就是為什麼我們在批准任何新工廠時都非常非常謹慎。

You may have seen a recycling in Australia as well.

您可能也看過澳洲的回收現象。

But we're pleased with progress on our Archaea.

但我們對於古菌研究的進展感到滿意。

We're not quite where we want to be.

我們還沒有達到我們想要的目標。

We're probably 12 months behind progress in Archaea because we had to take our time to make the designs work.

我們在 Archaea 方面的進展可能落後了 12 個月，因為我們必須花時間讓設計發揮作用。

We had to take our time to get the permitting right.

我們必須花時間來獲得許可。

We had to take our time to get the hookups to the midstream providers, right?

我們必須花些時間與中游供應商建立聯繫，對嗎？

So we've had to take a bit more time than we originally wanted to and that's on us.

因此，我們不得不花費比原先預期的多一點的時間，這是我們的責任。

But with 13 plants up now, I think the closest competition is two or three a year right now.

但現在已經有了 13 家工廠，我認為目前最接近的競爭對手是每年兩、三家。

So we feel like we're in a good competitive position.

因此我們覺得我們處於良好的競爭地位。

Prices and demand remain very strong for it as well, and we'll look forward to continuing growth out of Archaea moving forward.

它的價格和需求仍然非常強勁，我們期待 Archaea 在未來繼續成長。

And Carol will give you an update on that in a couple of weeks' time, Irene.

艾琳，卡羅爾將在幾週後向您通報最新情況。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Irene.

謝謝，艾琳。

We're going to see the next question from Lydia Rainforth at Barclays.

我們將看到巴克萊銀行的 Lydia Rainforth 提出的下一個問題。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And just on the cost base, if I can come back to that, and words on that, it's actually really helpful disclosure.

就成本基礎而言，如果我可以回到這一點並對此發表看法，那麼這實際上是非常有幫助的披露。

You do talk, Archaea, about the idea the kind of strong cost margin ratio.

Archaea，您確實談論過那種強大的成本利潤率的想法。

I'm just wondering, is there any way you can sort of talk us through how that's -- what you actually mean by that, how you measure it?

我只是想知道，您能否以某種方式向我們解釋一下這到底是什麼意思，您如何衡量它？

And how that might have changed over the last couple of years because I think that cost base and generating EBITDA is actually quite an important part for you.

以及過去幾年這種情況可能發生了怎樣的變化，因為我認為成本基礎和產生 EBITDA 對您來說實際上是相當重要的部分。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Lidia.

謝謝，莉迪亞。

So as we've said in the disclosures, quite a lot of this variable cost actually a huge part of it relates to our trading business.

正如我們在披露中所說的那樣，相當一部分變動成本實際上與我們的貿易業務有關。

And as you would imagine, it's a very, very margin-focused business.

正如您所想像的，這是一個非常非常注重利潤的業務。

So the analysis of that is just part of the way they work.

因此，對此的分析只是他們工作方式的一部分。

We pay very close attention to the gross margin that we're generating on trading.

我們非常關注交易產生的毛利率。

If I look at what's gone on in the last few years.

如果我回顧一下過去幾年發生的事情。

So there's been about a 45% increase in shipping costs and trading as freight rates are up.

因此，隨著運費上漲，運輸成本和交易量也增加了約45%。

And then the other component part, which you'll be familiar with is the scale of increase in our LNG portfolio.

然後，您會熟悉的另一個組成部分是我們液化天然氣投資組合的成長規模。

That's grown by over 50%.

增長了50%以上。

That's what's driving our cost base inside that part of the base.

這就是推動我們基地那部分成本基礎的因素。

In terms of variable costs, though, I think it's really important to understand that these are directly related to the delivery of margin.

不過，就變動成本而言，我認為真正重要的是要了解這些成本與利潤的交付直接相關。

And whilst we need to make sure that they are being efficiently managed, which we do, it would be crazy to put a target on those in terms of a reduction.

雖然我們需要確保對它們進行有效管理，我們也確實這樣做了，但以減少的數量為目標卻是瘋狂的。

I don't want to turn around to and say, please could you reduce your shipping costs that wouldn't be a great decision point in terms of driving value and returns as far as we're concerned.

我不想轉過身說，請你降低運輸成本，就我們而言，從推動價值和回報的角度來看，這不是一個很好的決策點。

So that's how we think about it.

這就是我們的想法。

And that's why we've provided the level of granularity that we have, and we will continue to provide with regard to our cost base.

這就是我們提供現有粒度等級的原因，並且我們會根據成本基礎繼續提供此類服務。

In a couple of weeks' time, Carol will be talking about the trading business again, Lidia.

幾週後，卡羅爾就會再次談論貿易業務了，莉迪亞。

She will unpack some of this as well.

她也會解開其中的一些。

And I think you'll find that there's a fixed margin that we have across our business that's driven by this portfolio of shipping oil or shipping diesel, bunkering and the LNG expansion.

我認為您會發現，我們整個業務的利潤率都是固定的，這是由石油運輸或柴油運輸、燃料加油和液化天然氣擴張等業務組合推動的。

So more details to come in a couple of weeks' time, and Carol will be happy to answer more detailed questions on that then.

更多細節將在幾週後公佈，屆時卡羅爾將很樂意回答更詳細的問題。

Thanks, Lydia.

謝謝，莉迪亞。

We'll take the next question from Lucas Herrmann, Exane BNP.

我們將回答 Exane BNP 的 Lucas Herrmann 提出的下一個問題。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Very brief one.

非常簡短。

LNG and volumes this year, how much of an increment do you expect to receive from Beach from Tortue potentially attaining volumes from venture?

今年的液化天然氣 (LNG) 產量，您預計從 Beach 到 Tortue 可能會獲得多少增量，從而實現合資企業的產量？

Can you just give us an idea of the tonnes of increase that you're budgeting for?

您能否告訴我們您預算增加的噸數是多少？

That's it.

就是這樣。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes, Great.

是的，太棒了。

Thanks, Thank you for the kind wishes.

謝謝，謝謝你的美好祝福。

I'm feeling great, Lucas.

我感覺很好，盧卡斯。

It's nice to be back in the office.

回到辦公室真高興。

Tortue and Beach are about 3 million tonnes per annum added, assuming a full year flow.

假設全年流量為，Tortue 和 Beach 每年將增加約 300 萬噸。

Venture, I'm just going to not comment as the arbitration continues, let's see how that arbitration goes.

Venture，在仲裁繼續進行時我不打算發表評論，讓我們看看仲裁的進展。

Hopefully, we see a ruling in the back half of the year on that and then we start to see flow.

希望我們能在今年下半年看到有關該問題的裁決，然後我們開始看到進展。

But I think between Tortue and Beach, we've got 3 MTPA that will come through.

但我認為，Tortue 和 Beach 之間，我們將有 3 MTPA 來實現這一目標。

Thanks, Lucas.

謝謝，盧卡斯。

Moving on to Matt Lofting at JPMorgan.

繼續討論摩根大通的馬特洛夫廷 (Matt Lofting)。

Thanks for taking the questions.

感謝您回答這些問題。

Two, if I could, please.

如果可以的話，請給我兩個。

First, just on cost.

首先，僅就成本而言。

I think you showed in slide 12, about $5 billion of structural cost reduction over the last few years.

我想您在投影片 12 中展示了過去幾年約 50 億美元的結構性成本削減。

If I understood right, I think that includes divestments.

如果我理解正確的話，我認為這包括撤資。

I wondered if you could break down how much of that $5 billion is divestments versus underlying given the BP has divested about $20 billion of assets over the course of that period?

我想知道，鑑於英國石油公司在此期間已剝離了約 200 億美元的資產，您是否可以細分一下這 50 億美元中有多少是剝離資產，有多少是基礎資產？

And then second, I just wanted to ask you about Russia and sort of given debate over recent days and weeks around Russia-Ukraine and sort of see fire scenarios Could you see a sort of a feasible scenario?

第二，我想問您關於俄羅斯的問題，鑑於最近幾天和幾週圍繞俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間的爭論，以及可能發生的衝突情景，您能想像一種可行的情景嗎？

And could it be sort of palatable for BP at level around the case for reconsolidating the Rosneft shares in the future onto the balance sheet.

並且，對於 BP 來說，這在未來將俄羅斯石油公司的股份重新整合到資產負債表上是否會有一定的可行性？

I just wondered how you sort of see that today.

我只是想知道您今天對此有何看法。

Okay.

好的。

Matt, you've broken the rule already.

馬特，你已經違反規則了。

So -- but we're going to take that one.

所以——但是我們會選擇那個。

I'm going to let Murray answer the question on Russia, but maybe first, Kate, on your cost question.

我打算讓莫瑞回答有關俄羅斯的問題，但凱特，也許首先要回答你的成本問題。

Yes.

是的。

So we're not planning on breaking this down by portfolio movement, Matt.

因此，我們不打算按投資組合變動來細分這一點，馬特。

We're very clear that it does include portfolio, but we're trying to give you as much granularity as we can.

我們非常清楚它確實包括投資組合，但我們正在嘗試向您提供盡可能多的詳細資訊。

But I think we need to draw the line in some and where it's a very big portfolio impact.

但我認為，我們需要在某些會對投資組合產生巨大影響的地方劃清界線。

Of course, we'll try and call it out and help you with regard to understanding the underlying cost base going forward.

當然，我們會盡力指出這一點，並幫助您理解未來的潛在成本基礎。

Lots of ins and outs in there as well.

其中還有很多來龍去脈。

And then on Russia, look, our principal focus right now is on divesting the stake.

然後關於俄羅斯，你看，我們現在的主要重點是剝離股份。

There are more than a dozen countries that have sanctions on the entity.

有十幾個國家對該實體實施制裁。

So we think the best focus that we can possibly have is on continuing to divest this and we'll update the market as we go along on that.

因此，我們認為我們最好的關注點是繼續剝離這項業務，並在剝離過程中向市場更新資訊。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

We're going to just move to a quick question from Ahmed Ben Celem from Oddo who's online.

我們將直接回答來自 Oddo 的 Ahmed Ben Celem 在線提出的一個簡短問題。

Ahmed's question is, how do you see the impact of US tariffs on Canadian crude on Whiting's refining margins?

艾哈邁德的問題是，您如何看待美國對加拿大原油徵收關稅對惠廷煉油利潤的影響？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Ahmad

謝謝，艾哈邁德

.

。

Pretty difficult to predict is my answer.

我的答案是相當難以預測。

We have the ability to flow volumes south to north in the United States if we need to.

如果需要的話，我們有能力將貨物從美國南向北運輸。

Obviously, the Canadian producers have optionality to flow some product to the West Coast and overseas as well.

顯然，加拿大生產商可以選擇將部分產品運送到西海岸和海外。

Upon announcement of the tariffs, the WTI, WCS spread opened up quite a bit, probably absorbing half of that tariff.

關稅宣布後，WTI 和 WCS 價差大幅擴大，可能吸收了一半的關稅。

So I think it's a very, very dynamic scenario, and it's very difficult to predict what will happen to margins on the northern tier.

所以我認為這是一個非常非常動態的場景，很難預測北部地區的邊緣會發生什麼。

And so we'll just have to watch and see how the market turns out on this one.

因此，我們只需要觀察市場將如何表現。

I don't think it's straightforward because there are so many different flows that get impacted with Mexican flows, with Southern US to Northern US flows, with Canadian flows.

我認為這不是很簡單，因為有很多不同的流量會受到影響，包括墨西哥流量、美國南部到美國北部的流量、加拿大流量。

So I have studied it heavily with the teams, and I'm afraid I find it very, very difficult to predict what will happen, but we will update you in due course as we learn about it.

因此，我和團隊對此進行了深入研究，恐怕很難預測會發生什麼，但我們會在了解情況後及時向大家通報。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

We're going to turn to Chris Kuplent at Bank of America.

我們將轉向美國銀行的克里斯·庫普倫特 (Chris Kuplent)。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

And it's, of course, dangerous to allow breaking the precedent.

當然，允許打破先例是危險的。

So let me try, and this could be a very short answer, but you may have your reasons for not publishing what the surplus cash flow is on a quarterly basis.

所以讓我試試，這可能是一個非常簡短的答案，但您可能有理由不按季度公佈盈餘現金流。

But maybe you can just yes or no confirm that for the full year, it was somewhere around $4 billion?

但您是否能確認，全年的收入約為 40 億美元？

And if I may, I just wanted to get an explanation how you feel about the value equation from issuing more hybrid bonds in November, which, I guess, will push up your cash outflows in the cash flow statement, which I may make out at around an 8% cost of that carrying value.

如果可以的話，我只是想聽聽你對 11 月發行更多混合債券的價值方程式的看法，我猜，這將推高現金流量表中的現金流出，我可能會將其算作賬面價值的 8% 左右的成本。

So I just wanted to understand how attractive you think that is issuing -- continuing to issue hybrid bonds to lower your net debt?

所以我只是想要了解，您認為發行混合債券來降低淨債務有多大吸引力？

Great.

偉大的。

Why don't we just -- we're going to go back to focusing on one question.

我們為什麼不呢——我們要重新集中討論一個問題。

So Kate, why don't you tackle the hybrid question.

那麼凱特，你為什麼不解決混合問題呢？

And Chris, we can follow up with you offline on the other question.

克里斯，我們可以離線跟進您關於另一個問題。

Yes.

是的。

So you all have heard me say in previous calls, Chris, I do think they're an important part of our capital structure.

所以你們都在之前的電話會議中聽我說過，克里斯，我確實認為它們是我們資本結構的重要組成部分。

We're not seeking to build towers here.

我們並不想在這裡建造塔樓。

Just to be super clear, what we did in the fourth quarter, which others also did, by the way, is take advantage of a really strong environment.

需要特別明確的是，我們在第四季所做的，順便說一句，其他人也做的，就是利用真正強勁的環境。

The senior sub-spreads were at an all-time low.

高級子利差處於歷史最低水準。

And so we were able to issue hybrids in advance of our upcoming maturities in this year and in next year.

因此，我們能夠在今年和明年即將到期的債券之前發行混合債券。

And it's really just a value play, right?

這真的只是一種價值遊戲，對嗎？

The hybrid market can fluctuate.

混合動力市場可能會出現波動。

We wanted to make sure that when it was in a particularly strong moment that we took absolute best advantage of that.

我們希望確保在特別強勁的時刻，我們能夠充分利用這一點。

That's all that's going on with hybrids.

這就是混合動力汽車所發生的全部情況。

I remind you that about half of our hybrids are fixed cost and also the payments with regard to are fully tax deductible.

我提醒您，我們的混合動力車中約有一半是固定成本，與此相關的付款是完全免稅的。

So yes, I mean, they're not the cheapest, but it's an important part of our capital structure.

所以是的，我的意思是，它們不是最便宜的，但它是我們資本結構的重要組成部分。

And we will continue to look very carefully and select maturities as and when the value feels right for us.

我們將繼續仔細觀察並選擇我們認為合適的到期日。

Thank you, Chris.

謝謝你，克里斯。

We're going to turn to Roger Read in the US at Wells Fargo.

我們將聯絡美國富國銀行的羅傑‧里德 (Roger Read)。

Roger.

收到。

Yeah.

是的。

Good morning or good afternoon to you.

早安或下午好。

But let me ask a US question.

但請容許我問一個美國問題。

BPX, just kind of update on performance and how you're thinking about any particular increase in activity in any of the gas areas?

BPX，只是對性能進行了更新，您如何看待任何天然氣區域的活動是否有所增加？

Great.

偉大的。

Roger, Nice to hear your voice.

羅傑，很高興聽到你的聲音。

We continue to admire what BPX is doing.

我們繼續欽佩 BPX 所做的事情。

They continue to do -- perform very well.

他們繼續表現得非常出色。

We've got our third central gathering facility up online and full now in the Permian, and we're looking forward to getting the last one up around middle of this year.

我們的第三個中央收集設施現已在二疊紀盆地投入使用，並且已全面投入使用，我們期待著最後一個設施在今年年中左右投入使用。

I think the most interesting that we're seeing right now are these refracs inside the Eagle Ford, where the refracs and downspacing are actually creating more flow than the original mother boards.

我認為我們現在看到的最有趣的是 Eagle Ford 內部的這些重複壓裂，其中重複壓裂和下移實際上比原始主機板產生了更多的流量。

So there's something about a recharging reservoir going on there that we didn't really predict in shale.

因此，那裡正在發生一些關於補給水庫的事情，這是我們在頁岩中沒有真正預測到的。

And that's a very interesting opportunity as the returns are triple digit plus on that space.

這是一個非常有趣的機會，因為該領域的回報率是三位數以上。

On the gas side, we're contemplating increasing rigs right now.

在天然氣方面，我們目前正在考慮增加鑽機數量。

Gas pricing is very, very solid as we look at the second half of '25 and into early '26.

從 2025 年下半年到 2026 年初來看，天然氣價格非常非常穩定。

And so Gordon and Kate and I are debating, should we be doing that, what head strategy would we have around it, and how many rigs should we grow.

所以戈登、凱特和我正在討論，我們是否應該這樣做，我們應該採取什麼樣的整體策略，以及我們應該增加多少個鑽孔機。

But with the prices that we're seeing now on the forward markets, the returns inside the gas now beat the returns inside the oil basins.

但根據我們現在在期貨市場上看到的價格，天然氣的回報率現在超過了石油盆地的回報率。

So that will be something that we're thinking about, and we'll look forward to more questions in that space in a couple of weeks' time, where you can ask Gordon about that stuff as well.

所以這是我們正在考慮的事情，我們期待在未來幾週內在該領域有更多問題，您也可以向戈登詢問這些事情。

Thanks, Roger.

謝謝，羅傑。

Thank you, Roger.

謝謝你，羅傑。

We'll turn to Alejandro Vigil at Santander.

我們將轉向桑坦德銀行的亞歷杭德羅·維吉爾。

Next, please.

下一位。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

My question is basically about the slide 16 of the presentation where you are talking about building momentum into '25.

我的問題基本上是關於簡報的第 16 張幻燈片，其中您談到了為 25 年積聚動力。

And you saw this chart with a significant increase in year-on-year in EBITDA, which are the moving parts of this increase?

您在這張圖表中看到了 EBITDA 年比大幅成長，這一增長是由哪些因素推動的？

I remind there are some consolidation portfolio, et cetera?

我提醒一下有一些合併投資組合等等？

And I'm making this question also in the context of looking at consensus number of $37 billion for this year looks like there is a big gap between consensus and this slide number 16.

我提出這個問題也是在考慮今年 370 億美元的共識數字的情況下，看來共識數字與第 16 張投影片中數字之間存在很大差距。

You can elaborate on this, please.

請詳細說明一下。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you, Alejandro.

謝謝你，亞歷杭德羅。

Yes, so if you think about 2024 EBITDA, so we printed $38 billion for 2024.

是的，如果您考慮 2024 年的 EBITDA，那麼我們為 2024 年印製了 380 億美元。

If you were to adjust that for '23 prices.

如果您要根據 '23 價格進行調整。

If you think back, I think it was 2Q earlier this -- earlier last year when we talked about the impact of price on our $46 billion to $49 billion EBITDA target.

如果你回想一下，我想那是在今年早些時候的第二季度——去年早些時候，我們談到價格對我們 460 億美元至 490 億美元的 EBITDA 目標的影響。

If you adjust our 2024 EBITDA back for 2023 prices, and if you think about '23, although the commodities move around, taken as a basket, it's broadly comparable to our planning assumptions.

如果您根據 2023 年的價格調整我們 2024 年的 EBITDA，並且如果您考慮 23 年，儘管大宗商品在波動，但作為一個籃子，它與我們的計劃假設大致相當。

And then if you use rules, rules of thumb and you adjust for the fact that Whiting will be back up and operating well this year.

然後，如果你使用規則、經驗法則，並且你根據 Whiting 今年將恢復並運行良好的事實進行調整。

You adjust for portfolio, and you adjust for typical underlying growth that we expect to deliver year-on-year, you get to a number that's just under our target of $46 billion to $49 billion, which is what we've said today.

透過調整投資組合，並調整我們預計將年比實現的典型潛在成長，您將獲得一個略低於我們今天所說的 460 億美元至 490 億美元的目標的數字。

And to be clear, we've said for a while now that our focus is very much shifting to cash.

需要明確的是，我們已經說過一段時間了，我們的重點正轉向現金。

In two weeks' time, we'll update you fully in terms of targets, metrics and financial frame, and that will help put the retiring of this target into context for you.

兩週後，我們將向您全面更新目標、指標和財務框架，這將有助於您了解該目標的退出情況。

And I think on '24 versus '25, obviously, we've got the absence of the Whiting outage.

我認為，24 年和 25 年相比，顯然沒有發生惠廷停電事件。

Depending on the margin, that's worth quite a bit of money.

根據利潤率，這筆錢的價值相當大。

And then we have the 3% to 4% underlying growth that I've been talking about quarter in and quarter out that we see year-on-year across the business for '24 versus '25 that comes broadly across cost.

然後，我們看到，2024 年和 2025 年，整個業務年比基本成長率分別為 3% 和 4%，這主要體現在成本方面。

So continued cost improvement based on a great start we've done this year, along with improvements in things like Castrol TA doing better, European convenience doing better, Australian convenience doing better and continue to improve performance inside the Upstream, along with, as I said, in the refining coverage, less complicated towers.

因此，我們在今年取得了良好的開端，繼續改善成本，同時在嘉實多 TA 方面取得更好的成績，歐洲便利性方面取得更好的成績，澳大利亞便利性方面取得更好的成績，並繼續提高上游內部的性能，同時，正如我所說的，在煉油覆蓋範圍內，塔的複雜性也得到了降低。

So it's a lot of small things that add up to that 3% to 4% improvement in underlying plus the recovery from the Whiting outage in 2024.

所以，很多小事加起來就構成了基礎業務 3% 到 4% 的改善，再加上 2024 年惠廷停電事故後的恢復。

.

。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Alejandro.

謝謝，亞歷杭德羅。

We will turn to Michele Della Vigna, at Goldman Sachs.

我們來談談高盛的米歇爾‧德拉‧維尼亞 (Michele Della Vigna)。

Thank you and very much looking forward to the CMD.

謝謝您，非常期待 CMD。

Just one modeling question from my side.

我只想問一個建模問題。

We've seen two items before below EBIT, which were larger than expected, the net interest cost and the minorities.

我們之前已經看到息稅前利潤以下有兩項內容超出預期，即淨利息成本和少數股東權益。

I was just wondering if you could perhaps guide us on whether we should assume this is a new ongoing run rate or if there was any one-off impact in the quarter?

我只是想知道您是否可以指導我們，我們是否應該假設這是一個新的持續運行率，或者是否存在本季度的一次性影響？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank, Michele.

謝謝，米歇爾。

In terms of net interest, that was up quarter-on-quarter really just because our gross debt had grown.

就淨利息而言，實際上是由於我們的總債務增長了，所以淨利息的季度環比增長是真實的。

We took advantage this year in terms of markets and issued a fair amount of debt without actually buying back any more of our maturities.

我們今年利用了市場優勢，發行了相當數量的債務，但實際上並沒有回購任何到期債務。

That's something that we'll continue to address as we have done previously, based on value in terms of the cash.

我們將繼續按照以前的做法，根據現金價值來解決這個問題。

It's a very minimal cost of carry right now given the forward curves as well.

考慮到遠期曲線，目前的持有成本非常低。

So that's all that's going on in net interest.

這就是淨利息發生的全部情況。

And for the minorities?

那麼少數民族呢？

So there's a movement and that really just related to the change in hybrids in the fourth quarter.

因此存在一種動向，這實際上與第四季度混合動力汽車的變化有關。

You would probably expect both to reverse over time as you decrease your hybrids, again, unless you pay off your debt.

你可能會期望隨著你減少混合動力汽車的使用，這兩種情況都會隨著時間的推移而逆轉，除非你還清債務。

Thank you, Michele.

謝謝你，米歇爾。

We'll turn to Paul Cheng in the US at Scotia.

我們來談談美國斯科細亞銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Paul.

保羅。

^ Thank you.

^ 謝謝。

Good morning or good afternoon.

早安或下午好。

Kate, can I go back into the 2025 EBITDA?

凱特，我可以回到 2025 年 EBITDA 嗎？

Do you think that adjust for the pricing; it will be slightly below the low end of the range?

您認為應該調整定價嗎？它會略低於該範圍的低端嗎？

So comparing to the midpoint, that's probably say call it $2 billion less.

因此與中間點相比，這可能意味著少了 20 億美元。

Can you tell us that comparing to the initial expectation, which area that are seeing the miss?

您能否告訴我們，與最初的預期相比，哪些方面沒有達到預期？

And what's causing those?

是什麼原因造成的呢？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So I think the two areas I would highlight, we've talked before about bio margins in Europe being suppressed due to two reasons.

所以我認為我要強調的兩個領域，我們之前已經討論過歐洲的生物利潤因兩個原因而受到抑制。

One, the Nordic countries growing back their voluntary mandates to the EU mandated levels and also a level of oversupply from Asia.

一是北歐國家的自願強制要求恢復到歐盟規定的水平，同時亞洲的供應也過剩。

The other area I would call out is TravelCenters of America where it's been slightly slower than we expected in terms of recovery from the trucking recession.

我要提到的另一個領域是美國旅行中心，該公司從卡車運輸業衰退中的復甦速度比我們預期的要慢一些。

We see green shoots.

我們看到了綠芽。

It's starting to improve.

情況開始好轉了。

I think we're probably a year further out in terms of seeing full recovery.

我認為，我們可能還需要一年時間才能實現全面復甦。

That's more likely to come through in 2026 now.

現在這一目標更有可能在 2026 年實現。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Paul.

謝謝你，保羅。

And it looks like just now the last question is from Giacomo Romeo at Jefferies.

現在看起來最後一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Giacomo Romeo。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Just a quick one more on the modeling side.

關於建模方面，我再簡單說一下。

Your lease is obviously gone up as you've guided.

您的租金顯然按照您的要求上漲了。

I'm just trying to get a better sense of where we should expect lease payments to move to in going forward in Q4 that we're still relatively in line with previous quarters, just trying to understand whether that should go up and to what extent into next year?

我只是想更好地了解我們應該預期第四季度的租賃付款將走向何處，我們仍然與前幾季相對一致，只是想了解明年租賃付款是否應該上漲以及上漲幅度是多少？

Yes, I'll take that. There's the leases were pretty flat quarter-on-quarter, but we did add to our lease liabilities in the fourth quarter with the completion of Bongo. They've got about 300,000 hectares of land leased. So you will expect a small increase with regard to that.

是的，我接受。租賃金額與上一季相比持平，但隨著 Bongo 專案的完工，我們第四季的租賃負債確實增加了。他們已經租賃了大約30萬公頃土地。因此，你會預期這方面會有小幅成長。

And then there was an extension of a lease that trading use in the US, but for commercial reasons, I wouldn't go into that.

然後，又延長了在美國進行交易的租約，但出於商業原因，我不會談論這一點。

So 4Q versus 3Q, pretty flat, but you'll see a little bit of tick up with regard to the Bunge leases.

因此，第四季度與第三季度相比，相當持平，但您會看到邦吉租賃方面略有上漲。

We're going to let Biraj sneak in with the last question.

我們將讓 Biraj 偷偷提出最後一個問題。

Hi, there.

你好呀。

Sorry, I assume someone going to ask this, but on the last one might as well.

抱歉，我想有人會問這個問題，不過最後一個問題也可能會問。

Given the news yesterday around your new shareholders, any comments you can make about any engagement you've had with Elliott?

鑑於昨天有關新股東的消息，您能就您與 Elliott 的合作發表什麼評論嗎？

Look, Biraj, it's market speculation right now, and we don't comment on market speculation.

你看，比拉傑，現在是市場猜測，我們不對市場猜測發表評論。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks for the question, Biraj.

謝謝你的提問，Biraj。

Okay.

好的。

I am going to -- there's no more questions online.

我要去--網路上沒有其他問題了。

So we are going to close the call on that note.

因此，我們就此結束本次通話。

So that's the last question.

這是最後一個問題。

We'll close the call on behalf of Murray, Kate, myself, and also members of the leadership team, who will join us on February 26.

我們將代表 Murray、Kate、我本人以及將於 2 月 26 日加入我們的領導團隊成員結束本次電話會議。

We look forward to seeing many of you in London.

我們期待在倫敦見到你們。

And of course, those of you who will be joining the event by webcast.

當然，還有那些透過網路直播參加這項活動的人。

So we look forward to seeing you in a couple of weeks.

所以我們期待幾週後能見到您。

And thank you for listening into today's call.

感謝您收聽今天的電話會議。