英國石油 (BP) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

A warm welcome to everyone joining us in person at our headquarters today and to those joining online and on the phones. I trust everyone has had a chance to watch the second quarter 2024 video presentation and read our stock exchange announcement, both of which were posted this morning on our website, bp.com. We heard the feedback that you appreciated this new format. For today, we're aiming to finish the call at 2:00 PM UK time.

熱烈歡迎今天親自到我們總部參加的各位嘉賓以及透過線上和電話參加的各位嘉賓。我相信每個人都有機會觀看 2024 年第二季度的視訊演示並閱讀我們的股票交易所公告，這兩者都於今天早上發佈在我們的網站 bp.com 上。我們聽到了您很欣賞這種新格式的回饋。今天，我們計劃在英國時間下午 2:00 結束通話。

So with that let me hand over to Murray for some brief opening remarks.

因此，請允許我把時間交給莫瑞，讓他發表一些簡短的開場白。

Great. Thanks, Craig, and thanks to everyone for joining today. I'm in the room and I'm joined by Kate Thomson, CFO; Carol Howle, EVP, Trading and Shipping; and Emma Delaney, EVP Customers and Products, which luckily for me will provide me with the opportunity to pass all difficult questions to them today.

偉大的。謝謝，克雷格，也謝謝大家今天的參加。我在房間裡，和我一起的還有財務長凱特湯姆森 (Kate Thomson)； Carol Howle，貿易與航運執行副總裁；以及客戶和產品執行副總裁 Emma Delaney，幸運的是，今天我有機會向他們提出所有難題。

To recap on today's results, our operations are running really well. 96% upstream plant reliability and 96% refining availability in the quarter. We generated strong operating cash flow of $8.1 billion, net debt reduced by $1.4 billion to $22.6 billion, and we remain confident in the opportunity and potential we have in growing the value of BP.

回顧今天的結果，我們的營運運作得非常好。本季上游工廠可靠度為 96%，煉油可用性為 96%。我們產生了81億美元的強勁營運現金流，淨債務減少了14億美元，至226億美元，我們對於提升BP價值的機會和潛力仍然充滿信心。

This should be clear with today's 10% increase in our announced dividends, the $1.75 billion buyback in respect of our 2Q results, and our commitment to announce $3.5 billion of share buybacks for the second half of 2024. That's $1.75 billion to be announced each at 3Q and 4Q results.

今天我們宣布的股利增加 10%，第二季業績回購 17.5 億美元，以及我們承諾在 2024 年下半年宣布 35 億美元的股票回購，這些都應該是顯而易見的。業績。

You'll have heard from our video some real examples of us in action delivering on our six priorities. We've accomplished an awful lot over the past six months. Of course, there's always more to do. And we have clear focus on our drive to 2025, which we can control. We see a lot of opportunity ahead of us, and we're remaining pragmatic, flexible, focused on value. And we look forward to updating you on our medium-term plans in February next year.

您將從我們的影片中聽到我們切實履行六大優先事項的一些真實事例。過去六個月我們取得了許多成就。當然，總是有更多的事情要做。我們的目標很明確，就是朝著 2025 年邁進，這是我們可以掌控的。我們看到眼前有很多機遇，我們仍然務實、靈活、注重價值。我們期待在明年二月向您報告我們的中期計劃。

So Kate, Carol, Emma, and I are here to answer your questions. Can we ask each of you please to limit your questions to two, and I'll go ahead and start off here in the room.

所以凱特、卡羅爾、艾瑪和我在這裡回答您的問題。我們能否請你們每個人將問題限制在兩個以內，然後我就從這個房間開始問了。

Irene, why don't we start with you, please.

艾琳，我們可以先從你開始嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Irene Himona at Bernstein, and congratulations.

伯恩斯坦的艾琳希莫娜 (Irene Himona)，恭喜你。

My first question concerns progress towards the $2 billion operating cost reduction target you announced, particularly in the context of a 4% increase in unit upstream costs, which I see.

我的第一個問題是關於您宣布的 20 億美元營運成本削減目標的進展情況，特別是在單位上游成本增加 4% 的背景下，我看到了這一點。

My second question on transition engine EBITDA, which in the first half has halved year-on-year.

我的第二個問題是關於過渡引擎的 EBITDA，上半年該數字比去年同期下降了一半。

I can see biofuels, convenience, renewables, they're all down.

我看到生質燃料、便利能源、再生能源都在下降。

So it seems even if EV charging and hydrogen break, even by year end, the $3 billion to $4 billion next year looks a bit challenged.

因此，即使電動車充電和氫氣技術取得突破，即使到年底，明年 30 億至 40 億美元的目標看起來仍然有點挑戰。

But that was my question.

但這正是我的問題。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, Irene.

謝謝，艾琳。

I'll let Kate lead off on cost and maybe Emma you can amplify a bit and then I'll tackle the TGs and pass over to Carol and Emma as well.

我會讓 Kate 先討論成本問題，也許 Emma 可以稍微詳述一下，然後我會處理 TG，並將交接給 Carol 和 Emma。

Go ahead, Kate.

繼續吧，凱特。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Irene.

謝謝，艾琳。

As I said back in April at our 1Q results, we're aiming to deliver $2 billion, and I said then, I'd like to exceed it, I'd like to be able to do it quicker.

正如我四月在第一季業績發布會上所說的那樣，我們的目標是實現 20 億美元的收入，當時我就說過，我希望超越這個目標，而且希望能夠更快地實現這個目標。

So since April, as you'd imagine, we've been in action right across the company in every business, in every function, underpinning that.

因此，正如您所想像的，自 4 月以來，我們已在整個公司的每個業務部門、每個職能部門採取行動，以支持這一點。

So the three things that are on my mind.

我想到的是這三件事。

One, make sure that $2 billion is underpinned.

一是確保20億美元資金有保障。

Second, can we accelerate it?

第二，我們能加速這一進程嗎？

Can we deliver more?

我們可以提供更多嗎？

And then third, how do we make those savings sustainable.

第三，我們如何使這些節省可持續。

So that's where we've been over the last three months.

這就是我們過去三個月的情況。

And as you've seen today, we've now been able to get clear that we can deliver $0.5 billion of that cash cost saving in 2025.

正如大家今天所看到的，我們現在已經能夠明確，到 2025 年我們可以實現 5 億美元的現金成本節約。

And we'll continue to update as we go.

我們會持續更新。

But back to where I was in April, I would hope we can do better in terms of the delivery, but also the pace.

但回到四月的情況，我希望我們可以在交付方面做得更好，同時也能加快速度。

Just in terms of the unit production cost, that's just portfolio mix at the moment.

僅就單位生產成本而言，這只是目前的投資組合。

We're on track for the sort of around $6 that we said we would be by the middle of 2025.

我們的目標是在 2025 年中期將油價提高到 6 美元左右。

Great.

偉大的。

And Emma, anything to add on cost, please?

艾瑪，還有什麼需要增加費用的嗎？

Yes, I think just amplify, Kate, your point is the costs are owned by the businesses.

是的，我認為只需強調一下，凱特，你的觀點是成本由企業承擔。

So we've run a process over the last few months and the costs are embedded in our near term plan for both 2024 and 2025, as well as that will flow into 2026.

因此，我們在過去幾個月中已經運行了一個流程，成本已包含在我們 2024 年和 2025 年的近期計劃中，並將持續到 2026 年。

The majority of the costs are embedded right down into the business units.

大部分成本都嵌入業務部門。

And there's some that we're still holding centrally.

有些我們仍集中保管。

Murray, you talked about four buckets for cost portfolio, we're always churning the bottom of our portfolio tail end.

莫瑞，您談到了成本投資組合的四個部分，我們總是攪動投資組合尾部的底部。

You talked about digital, just a couple of examples on digital on cost.

您談到了數位化，僅舉幾個關於數位化成本的例子。

In my part of the business, we are, for example, rolling out self-serve checkout at our retail convenience site.

例如，在我負責的業務部分，我們正在零售便利商店推出自助結帳服務。

That is a saving on labor cost, which increases inflates every year.

這可以節省勞動成本，而勞動成本每年都在增加。

So that's a sustained saving.

這是一種持續的節省。

Things like our on the digital side, we have multiple portals on B2B self-serve, which we're consolidating the back end so that you can still see a different front.

例如在數位方面，我們在 B2B 自助服務上有多個門戶，我們正在整合後端，以便您仍然可以看到不同的前端。

And that also will deliver a cost saving as well as the ability to self-serve on digital.

這也將節省成本並實現數位自助服務的能力。

And then we're also in action, you talked about in procurement as a potential saving Murray earlier, and some of the things we're in action on there is in the US, for example, we are joining together our TA, AMPM, Travel Centers of America, AMPM, as well as our Thorntons merchandising.

然後我們也在採取行動，你之前談到採購可以節省資金，Murray，我們在美國採取的一些行動，例如，我們正在聯合我們的 TA、AMPM，美國旅遊中心、AMPM，以及我們的桑頓商品銷售。

And now we have a bit more scale to go to market.

現在，我們的市場規模已經有所擴大。

So just some examples of how we're embedding and write down in the details on the cost side.

這些只是我們如何嵌入並寫下成本方面細節的一些例子。

Fantastic, thanks Emma.

太棒了，謝謝艾瑪。

And then on the TGs, so last year we made around $1 billion of EBITDA.

然後是 TG，去年我們的 EBITDA 約為 10 億美元。

For the first half of this year we made about $0.5 billion.

今年上半年我們賺了大約5億美元。

We've of course announced the acquisition of Bunge as well, which we expect to close in the fourth quarter.

當然，我們也宣布了對邦吉的收購，預計將在第四季完成。

If you just pretend the run rate is the same, $500 million, 1H, $500 million,

如果你假設運行率不變，5億美元，上半年，5億美元，

2H, and you add Bunge into the mix, you're probably at almost $2 billion of EBITDA as a starting point headed into 2025.

2H，如果將邦吉也加入其中，到 2025 年，EBITDA 的起點可能將接近 20 億美元。

And then we remain on track.

然後我們繼續保持正軌。

We remain on track to grow into the three to four range.

我們仍有望發展至三至四家。

We feel very comfortable with that.

我們對此感到非常滿意。

Emma, maybe you can talk about what we see in convenience and electrification, and Carol can talk about bio as well, please.

艾瑪，也許你可以談談我們在便利性和電氣化方面看到的情況，卡羅爾也可以談談生物。

Go for it, Emma.

加油，艾瑪。

Sure, I'll kick off.

當然，我現在就開始。

So, in terms of convenience and electrification, we're well on track to deliver around $1.5 billion from convenience and electrification together.

因此，就便利性和電氣化而言，我們有望透過便利性和電氣化共同實現約 15 億美元的收益。

Electric EV charging lost with a loss of $0.3 billion, so $300 million last year.

電動車充電業務虧損 3 億美元，去年虧損 3 億美元。

And we're talking about breaking even, so that will contribute to the $1.5 billion.

我們談論的是收支平衡，所以這將有助於實現 15 億美元的目標。

And in convenience, we're well on track.

在便利性方面，我們已經走在了正確的軌道上。

So we did $0.5 billion this year already, first half.

所以今年上半年我們的營收已經達到 5 億美元。

That's up $200 million, first half versus first half.

與上半年相比，增加了 2 億美元。

And we're in action both on the revenue line as well as on the cost line.

我們在收入和成本兩方面都採取了行動。

So on the revenue line just a few examples, our like for like sales are up and our store conversions.

就收入而言，僅舉幾個例子，我們的同類銷售額上升了，商店轉換率也上升了。

So when we convert stores to strategic convenience sites, which you'll see we've now increased another 50 over this recent reporting period.

因此，當我們將商店轉變為策略性便利商店時，您會看到，我們在最近的報告期間內又增加了 50 家便利商店。

And when we increase our strategic convenience stores, we see double-digit increase in sales, just from those conversions.

當我們增加戰略便利商店時，我們看到銷售額僅透過這些轉換就實現了兩位數的成長。

And at the same time, we're working on our revenue line on the base business.

同時，我們正努力拓展基礎業務的收入來源。

So for example, we're constantly innovating our offers.

舉例來說，我們不斷創新我們的服務。

We launched pizza in Thorntons, that saw a 13% uplift in sales in the first month.

我們在桑頓推出了披薩，第一個月的銷量就成長了 13%。

We also launched just this year and it was launched, we launched 13 SKU stock keeping units on water, which is one of the top selling beverages for anybody who stops on the road, as well as sweet sort of jellies, candies.

我們也在今年推出了 13 個 SKU 庫存單位，包括水，這是路上停下來的任何一個人最暢銷的飲料之一，還有甜的果凍和糖果。

They're called epic brands.

它們被稱為史詩品牌。

Why do I say that?

我為什麼這麼說呢？

Because actually consumers are under pressure and consumers under pressure want a better value product and we actually make a better margin from these private labels.

因為實際上消費者面臨壓力，壓力下的消費者想要更有價值的產品，而我們實際上從這些自有品牌中獲得了更高的利潤。

So where we go directly to suppliers, conceive of a range of the top-selling products, it works for us, higher profit and it works for the consumer because it's more value.

因此，我們直接與供應商聯繫，構思一系列暢銷產品，這對我們來說是有利的，利潤更高，對消費者來說也是有利的，因為它更有價值。

So I think as I put those together, we're now in the top five of convenience stores in the USA and our program in Europe is well underpinned with the pipeline of conversion, big conversions still happening in Poland.

所以我認為，把這些放在一起，我們現在是美國排名前五的便利商店，我們在歐洲的計劃得到了轉換管道的良好支持，波蘭仍在進行大規模的轉換。

Here in the UK we continue to convert at the margin and then big program in Germany.

在英國，我們繼續進行邊際轉換，然後在德國進行大型專案。

Thanks, Emma.

謝謝，艾瑪。

EV?

電動車？

EV, I think you said we break even and we feel comfortable with that right now.

EV，我想你說過我們收支平衡，現在我們對此感到很滿意。

Everything moving in the right direction.

一切都在朝著正確的方向發展。

Happy to come back to that after if we like.

如果我們願意的話，我們很樂意再回來。

And then Carol.

然後是卡羅爾。

Okay.

好的。

So I mean, I think first thing I'd say is on bio, because you did mention bio, so we recognize obviously globally in most markets is weaker.

所以我的意思是，我想我首先要說的是關於生物，因為你確實提到了生物，所以我們顯然認識到全球大多數市場都比較弱。

And I'll come to Arkea shortly, because that's one market where it isn't.

我很快就會談到 Arkea，因為那是一個尚未實現這一目標的市場。

But I would say on the bio side, we have seen lower transport tickets in Europe.

但我想說，從生物方面來看，我們已經看到歐洲的交通票價下降了。

We have also seen short-term oversupply.

我們也看到了短期供應過剩的現象。

We've also seen some reduction in mandates, for example, Sweden, Finland.

我們也看到一些國家的要求減少，例如瑞典、芬蘭。

So there is some regulatory uncertainty which has contributed to that.

因此，一些監管的不確定性導致了這種情況的發生。

But we do also forecast that we're going to see margins improving through the end of 2025 and into 2026.

但我們也預測，到 2025 年底到 2026 年，利潤率將會提高。

That says we see mandates increasing in key markets like Germany and Netherlands and that's also as potentially there might be import duties placed onto biodiesel into Europe and also bioenergy is still needed to decarbonize the hard to abate sectors, such as transport.

這表明，我們看到德國和荷蘭等主要市場的強制要求不斷增加，而且歐洲可能會對生物柴油徵收進口關稅，而且交通運輸等難以減排的行業仍然需要生物能源來實現脫碳。

I think Emma can talk to the business side of that more so.

我認為艾瑪可以更多地談論商業方面的問題。

But I'd say it's a recognition, but we do still see positive margins for the future.

但我想說這是一種認可，但我們仍然看到未來的正面利潤。

In our Arkea, I’d say this is a slightly different story D3 RINs are actually holding up very well at the moment.

在我們的 Arkea 中，我想說這是一個略有不同的故事，D3 RIN 目前實際上表現得非常好。

It's a combination of high mandates, it's a combination of low availability around cellulosic ethanol, it's also that the waiver credit there has been discontinued.

這是由於嚴格的要求和纖維素乙醇供應不足造成的，而且豁免信貸也已經停止。

So that's a positive pricing market, averaged about 3.19 in Q2.

所以這是一個積極的定價市場，第二季平均約為 3.19。

So why are we confident around Arkea?

那我們為什麼對 Arkea 充滿信心呢？

Well we're confident because we're also seeing increase in demand in the transportation market.

我們很有信心，因為我們也看到運輸市場的需求在成長。

So it's up 14% first half of this year versus last year and we also see continuing growth as people use biogas to decarbonize, but we're also confident on the supply side.

因此，今年上半年與去年相比成長了 14%，隨著人們使用沼氣進行脫碳，我們也看到成長將持續，但我們對供應方面也充滿信心。

So we brought online four plants this first half of the year.

因此，我們在今年上半年啟動了四家工廠。

So that's roughly around [4 million] mmBtu’s of high margin RNG.

因此，這大約相當於 [400 萬] mmBtu 的高利潤 RNG。

And we've got two more in commissioning at the moment due to start up this week and a further two undergoing final commissioning due to start up in August.

目前我們還有兩台設備正在調試，預計本週啟動，另外兩台設備正在進行最終調試，預計八月啟動。

So we're making progress in bringing those plants up online.

因此我們在使這些工廠投入運作方面正在取得進展。

And just as a reminder, if Henry Hub were $3 an mmBtu, which I know is probably a little bit optimistic at the moment, but if it were and we were looking at placing our RNG into the transport market with RINs at $3, we can actually sell that RNG for 10 times more the value of Henry Hub.

提醒一下，如果亨利港的價格為每百萬英熱單位 3 美元，我知道目前這可能有點樂觀，但如果是這樣，而且我們考慮將 RNG 投入運輸市場，RIN 價格為 3 美元，我們可以實際上以亨利港價值10 倍的價格出售該RNG。

So that just gives you a sense still of the value in that portfolio.

因此這仍然可以讓你了解該投資組合的價值。

Now also what I would say is, we've learned a lot, commissioning times are reducing.

現在我想說的是，我們已經學到了很多，調試時間正在減少。

Madora that took us around seven weeks, we're now at around 7 to 10 days.

Madora 花了我們大約七週的時間，現在我們只需要大約 7 到 10 天。

So we are improving and getting those plants up and running more quickly.

因此，我們正在改進並讓這些工廠更快地投入運作。

That's not to say that there are some headwinds, we've seen that across the market permitting interconnect delays, but we're confident about that delivery and we're still focused on delivering $800 million to $1 billion by 2030 -- Arkea.

這並不是說存在一些阻力，我們已經看到整個市場允許互連延遲，但我們對交付充滿信心，並且我們仍然專注於到 2030 年交付 8 億到 10 億美元的收入——Arkea。

Thanks, Carol.

謝謝，卡羅爾。

Thanks, Emma.

謝謝，艾瑪。

So we feel confident, Irene.

所以我們很有信心，艾琳。

One more question in the room then we'll go out to the phone lines.

房間裡還有一個問題，然後我們將透過電話線進行回答。

Biraj.

比拉傑。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Biraj Borkhataria, RBC.

Biraj Borkhataria，RBC。

I'm the first one just on the balance sheet.

我是資產負債表上的第一個人。

The market's been concerned about your your debt levels at a recent quarters?

市場是否一直擔心貴公司最近幾季的債務水平？

And when I start to look at the figures, you've got net interest at 80% of your dividend, your lease payments have gone up 40% over the last couple of years.

當我開始查看這些數字時，你會發現淨利息佔股息的 80％，而你的租賃付款在過去幾年裡上漲了 40％。

And yes, I understand the push on EBITDA growth, but there are real reasons why the EBITDA growth is not translating to free cash free cash flow bottom line.

是的，我理解推動 EBITDA 成長的動力，但 EBITDA 成長並沒有轉化為自由現金流底線是有真正原因的。

So just getting back to the 80% surplus payout, can you just help me understand why it still makes sense to it feels quite restrictive is my question and rather than putting more cash to the balance sheet.

所以回到 80% 盈餘支出的問題，您能否幫助我理解為什麼它仍然感覺相當有限制性，這是我的問題是，而不是將更多現金投入資產負債表。

So that's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

And then the second question is just on some employee share options and dilution that looks like there's a large amount to that come due in the first quarter of 2025 from plans put in place a few years ago in normal years, you have a separate buyback to offset that dilution.

然後第二個問題是關於一些員工股票期權和稀釋，看起來在 2025 年第一季有大量股票到期，這是根據幾年前製定的計劃在正常年份進行的，你有單獨的回購計劃抵消這種稀釋。

But it looks like a very large number and obviously, you don't know exactly what's going to come through.

但它看起來是一個非常大的數字，而且顯然你不知道具體會發生什麼。

So can you help me understand whether you intend to offset the amount in 2025?

那麼，您能否幫助我了解您是否打算在 2025 年抵銷這筆金額？

Or I think last quarter you introduced languishing overtime.

或者我認為上個季度你引進了加班制度。

So what exactly does over time mean?

那麼「隨著時間的推移」到底意味著什麼？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, great key term.

是的，很棒的關鍵字。

I think on the balance sheet, I'll start and pass to Kate and she can answer the question on all of our options.

我認為在資產負債表上，我會開始並交給凱特，她可以回答有關我們所有選擇的問題。

And I think it's important to remember that we're focused on credit rating.

我認為重要的是要記住我們關注的是信用評級。

We're not necessarily slavishly focused on net debt.

我們並不一定盲目地關注淨債務。

And if you think about where our credit rating is and where our spreads are, we're A plus and A plus with Fitch and Moody's.

如果您想一想我們的信用評級和利差，您會發現我們在惠譽和穆迪的評級都是 A+。

So we're very strong.

所以我們非常強大。

We're in very strong position and we don't plan on moving to AA, it gives us the flexibility we need for trading.

我們處於非常有利的地位，我們不打算轉向 AA，它為我們提供了交易所需的靈活性。

And that gives us lots of firepower for what we want to do so and that's why we feel that we're comfortable with where we are.

這為我們想要做的事情提供了強大的火力，這也是我們對目前的狀況感到滿意的原因。

We've come from a long way over the past.

我們已經走了很遠的路。

And it makes sense to be biased to share buybacks that we think create more value for shareholders, both through the buyback flywheel and the dividend.

我們認為，偏向股票回購是有道理的，因為股票回購可以透過回購飛輪和股利為股東創造更多價值。

And that comes with that.

而這也隨之而來。

Kate, anything to add and then on to the share -- on to employee schemes?

凱特，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Maybe just a couple of points.

也許只是幾點。

I think that the share buybacks are part and parcel of our sector-leading distributions and the shareholders that we talk to are very supportive of that component of the financial frame.

我認為股票回購是我們行業領先分配的重要組成部分，與我們交談的股東非常支持財務框架的這一組成部分。

The balance sheet's in good shape.

資產負債表狀況良好。

We've made tremendous progress since 2020 with reducing it by $29 billion in terms of debt.

自 2020 年以來，我們取得了巨大進展，減少了 290 億美元的債務。

So it's there and it's strong so that it can tolerate fluctuations.

所以它就存在並且很強大，以至於它可以容忍波動。

So I think that's important alongside Murray's point, which is absolutely spot on with regard to financial resilience, where it being way more than just net debt.

因此，我認為這與 Murray 的觀點一樣重要，Murray 的觀點對於金融復原力來說絕對是正確的，它不僅僅是淨債務。

On the ESOP dilution, yes, we did decide to move to offsetting overtime and that is where we are going to be.

關於員工持股計畫稀釋，是的，我們確實決定轉向抵銷加班費，這就是我們要做的。

So a decent run rate last year, we offset $675 million of ESOP dilution through share buyback.

因此，去年的運行率還不錯，我們透過股票回購抵消了 6.75 億美元的 ESOP 稀釋。

So we'll continue to step through that.

因此，我們將繼續推進這項工作。

With regard to next year, yes, there are some options out there.

關於明年，是的，有一些選擇。

I'm not going to predict at what point they start to be exercised, they have a six year life.

我無法預測它們什麼時候開始鍛煉，它們的壽命為六年。

So we will continue to offset that over time and we'll step through it and can give you a little bit more detail as we get into that.

因此，我們會隨著時間的推移繼續抵消這一影響，並逐步解決這一問題，並在深入研究後向您提供更多細節。

Hard to predict, isn't it? -- great.

很難預測，不是嗎？ - 偉大的。

Thanks, Biraj.

謝謝，Biraj。

Why don't we go to the phone and I'll start with Paul Cheng on the phone, please.

我們何不先接電話，請先和 Paul Cheng 通話。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

Two questions.

兩個問題。

I think the first one is okay.

我覺得第一個還可以。

You may have already saw it.

您可能已經看過了。

Just for OP&P, the OpEx -- the implied OpEx seems like it's a bit high.

僅對於 OP&P，OpEx - 隱含的 OpEx 似乎有點高。

I think there's a higher exploration charge off, but in addition to that, is there anything else we should be aware and how much is the exploration charge off for the quarter?

我認為勘探費用扣除額更高，但除此之外，我們還應該注意什麼，本季的勘探費用扣除額是多少？

The second question maybe is for Murray.

第二個問題也許是針對穆雷的。

BPX, can you give us an idea then how is the second half activity level going to look like in the first half?

BPX，您能否告訴我們下半年的活動量與上半年相比會如何？

Second quarter is a good quarter.

第二季是一個好季度。

It looks like it must be perming.

看來一定是燙髮了。

The production number is -- especially in the -- is much higher.

生產數量——尤其是在——要高得多。

So you can comment on that.

因此你可以對此發表評論。

That would be great.

那太棒了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Great, thanks Paul.

太好了，謝謝保羅。

I'll lead off with BPX and I'll hand back to Kate.

我將以 BPX 開始，然後將麥克風交還給 Kate。

She might have answered most of your question already.

她可能已經回答了你的大部分問題。

On BPX, yes, the teams have made great progress there.

在 BPX 上，是的，團隊在那裡取得了巨大的進步。

I visited with them after our last set of results for a few days.

在我們獲得最新一組結果後，我和他們一起度過了幾天。

And you're right, we brought on the third central gathering facility in the first quarter, and we started to fill that up.

你說得對，我們在第一季啟動了第三個中央收集設施，並開始對其進行填充。

That's why we see the strong growth in liquids.

這就是我們看到液體強勁增長的原因。

In the second quarter, they are now working on the last one, which is really a compressor station, which will lower line pressure, which will draw more resource out of the ground, and that should come online sometime middle of next year.

在第二季度，他們目前正在建造最後一個壓縮機站，它將降低管道壓力，從而從地下抽取更多的資源，它應該在明年年中某個時候投入使用。

As far as activity set, generally we've described these in rig years.

至於活動集，一般來說，我們以鑽孔機年份來描述。

The difficulty with that is they're drilling so fast that they're able to drill the same number of wells with half the rigs.

困難在於，鑽井速度太快，只用一半的鑽孔機就能鑽出同樣數量的井。

So they've just done incredible work on ranging well drilling and some TDS technology as well.

他們在測距鑽井和一些 TDS 技術方面做出了令人難以置信的工作。

It's hard to believe that they've been able to do that step change yet again.

很難相信他們能夠再次實現這樣的重大改變。

So, when you look at the rig count numbers that we provide with you, it's as if it's 2 times the rigs that existed two years ago if you measure it to that metric, given the productivity they've seen.

因此，當您查看我們提供的鑽機數量時，如果按照該指標來衡量，考慮到它們所見的生產力，就好比是兩年前的鑽機數量的兩倍。

Right now in the gas basins, obviously gas price is quite low.

目前，在天然氣盆地中，天然氣價格顯然相當低。

We've got tons of resource, 22 TcF of resource.

我們擁有大量的資源，22 兆立方英尺的資源。

And we've just moved down to minimal drilling inside the Haynesville.

我們剛剛將海恩斯維爾內部的鑽探工作轉向最低限度。

So we're down to one rig in the Haynesville, just keeping going.

因此，我們在海恩斯維爾只剩下一台鑽孔機，只能繼續運作。

But we continue to focus on the oily side.

但我們繼續關注油性方面。

So we'll continue to drill out the Permian and gradually fill that system up entirely.

因此，我們將繼續鑽探二疊紀盆地，並逐步完全填滿該系統。

We'll probably hit peak production for liquids in the Permian around 2027, based on the last analysis I did.

根據我上次的分析，二疊紀液體產量可能會在 2027 年左右達到高峰。

And the other very interesting thing that we talked about while I was there is, they're rethinking the Eagle Ford.

我在那裡時我們談到的另一件非常有趣的事情是，他們正在重新考慮鷹福特 (Eagle Ford)。

So we have 500 wells there that have been producing for about a decade.

我們在那裡有 500 口油井，已經生產了大約十年。

They were fracked a decade ago.

十年前他們就被水力壓裂了。

Obviously, fracking technology has moved on materially since then.

顯然，水力壓裂技術自那時起已經取得了實質的進步。

So they've gone in and done 50 re-fracks.

因此他們進行了 50 次重複水力壓裂。

And the returns on these things are unbelievable.

這些東西的回報是令人難以置信的。

With the new technology on the fracks, you're getting all kinds of liquid production coming out of them.

利用水力壓裂新技術，可以從中生產出各種液體。

So we trialed 30.

因此我們試驗了 30。

We now have 500 opportunities.

我們現在有500個機會。

The Gordon is working with them on to decide at what pace we fund those.

戈登正在與他們合作，決定以何種速度資助這些工作。

And the last thing I'd say on the Eagle Ford is, they also started to down space, which is very counter to what you think of in some of these plays that maybe you don't down space, you're getting it through laterals.

最後我想說的是，他們也開始縮小空間，這與你在某些比賽中的想法完全相反，也許你不會縮小空間，而是通過側面。

But what they found is, the couple of downspacing wells they've drilled have delivered 3,700 barrels of oil a day, which is way above POPs, even what we're seeing in some of the Permian acreage.

但他們發現，他們鑽探的幾口下行井每天可以產出 3,700 桶石油，遠高於 POP，甚至高於我們在二疊紀部分地區看到的水平。

So the Eagle Ford is opening back up to us, and it's this mantra that we always have to think about with resources is, once you think you're done on recovery factor, have another go at technology and see what happens.

因此，鷹福特 (Eagle Ford) 又向我們開放了，我們在利用資源時始終要思考的就是這個口頭禪，那就是，一旦你認為恢復因素已經完成，就再嘗試一次技術，看看會發生什麼。

And that's what we're proving in the Eagle Ford.

這正是我們在鷹福特所證明的。

They used to talk about recovery factors of 7% to 10%.

他們過去常談論 7% 到 10% 的回收率。

That might resonate with you for the Permian.

這也許會引起你對二疊紀的共鳴。

They're now talking 30% recovery factors in the Eagle Ford from these re-fracs and from the down spacing.

他們現在正在談論 Eagle Ford 通過這些重複壓裂和下行間距獲得 30% 的採收率。

And of course, that's a question that will constantly challenge ourself in the Permian as well.

當然，這也是我們在二疊紀盆地不斷面臨的挑戰。

How can we completely change that?

我們如何才能徹底改變這一現狀？

So what should you see?

那你該看到什麼？

You should see us continue to focus on liquids with liquids growth.

您應該會看到我們繼續關注液體和液體的增長。

Gas production will decline with only one rig running in the Haynesville, but given where our prices are right now, that's fine.

如果海恩斯維爾只有一座鑽井平台運行，天然氣產量將會下降，但考慮到我們現在的價格，這沒什麼問題。

We'll take our hedges through profit and we'll see what happens with gas prices as we move through 2025 and 2026.

我們將透過利潤進行對沖，並觀察 2025 年和 2026 年天然氣價格的變化。

Our sense is, it'll be more resilient, and if it's more resilient, we can lean in and we can produce an awful lot more natural gas.

我們的感覺是，它會更有彈性，如果它更有彈性，我們可以依靠它來生產更多的天然氣。

But we have tremendous flexibility in the portfolio, given all the resource we have there.

但考慮到我們擁有的所有資源，我們的投資組合具有極大的靈活性。

Kate, back to you then on OpEx.

凱特，接下來請繼續討論 OpEx 問題。

Yes, So Paul, just a couple of quick points.

是的，保羅，我只想簡單說幾點。

So I think I kind of answered the point on unit production costs earlier.

所以我認為我之前已經回答了關於單位生產成本的問題。

It's really just mix.

這確實只是混合。

The only thing I would add to that is, don't try and correlate that directly to what we're saying on cash costs because, obviously, there's a whole segment of costs that don't feed into the production cost numbers.

我唯一想補充的是，不要試圖將其直接與我們所說的現金成本聯繫起來，因為顯然有一部分成本並未計入生產成本數字。

So there's not a direct relationship between those and then EWOs, we have a EWO of about $100 million in the second quarter, which was largely related to the Gulf of Mexico.

因此，這些與 EWO 之間沒有直接關係，我們在第二季的 EWO 約為 1 億美元，主要與墨西哥灣有關。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, Kate.

謝謝你，凱特。

I'll take one more on the call, and then I'll come to the room, Michele Della Vigna at Goldman.

我還想再接一個電話，然後我就去房間了，我是高盛的米歇爾·德拉·維尼亞 (Michele Della Vigna)。

And really congratulations on the strong results and the industry-leading cash return to shareholders.

非常感謝公司取得的強勁業績以及業界領先的股東現金回報。

Two questions, if I may.

請問我有兩個問題。

The first one is on LNG.

第一個是關於液化天然氣（LNG）的。

You've run historically with more spot exposure than most of your peers, and you've monetized it through trading.

從歷史上看，您的現貨風險比大多數同行都要大，而且您已經透過交易將其貨幣化。

I'm wondering with more and more supply coming on stream, especially potentially oversupplied market from '26, '27 whether you're looking for more brand linked long-term contracts.

我想知道，隨著越來越多的供應湧入，尤其是'26、'27年可能出現供應過剩的市場，您是否正在尋找更多與品牌相關的長期合約。

And if you can give us an idea of the split of your long-term exposure between spot and long term?

您能否向我們介紹現貨和長期投資之間的比例？

And then secondly, I wanted to come back to the two biorefineries that you've decided for the moment not to proceed with.

其次，我想回到你們暫時決定不繼續建造的兩家生物精煉廠的話題。

It makes perfect sense in terms of capital reallocation following the BP Bunge acquisition.

從英國石油公司收購邦吉公司之後的資本重新分配的角度來看，這是完全合理的。

But I was also wondering if there was anything that changed in your assumptions on policy or demand or cost of feedstock that influenced that decision.

但我還想知道，您對政策、需求或原料成本的假設是否發生了變化，從而影響了這個決定。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Great.

偉大的。

Well, as Carol's on the room, she can have fun with with LNG a way you go, Carol?

那麼，既然卡羅爾在房間裡，她可以和 LNG 一起玩得開心，卡羅爾，你呢？

.

。

Thank you, Murray.

謝謝你，默里。

So I won't give you a percent of the Brent length.

所以我不會給你布倫特長度的百分比。

But what I would say is, we do buy on Henry Hub and Brent basis, and we do also sell on Henry Hub and Brent basis.

但我想說的是，我們確實是在亨利港和布蘭特原油基礎上購買的，我們也確實在亨利港和布蘭特原油基礎上出售。

The way that we look at our portfolio is the first thing that we want to do is lock in the intrinsic margin then because we built a lot of optionality into our portfolio over time.

我們審視投資組合的方式是，我們首先要做的事情是鎖定內在利潤，因為隨著時間的推移，我們在投資組合中建立了許多可選性。

What we then look to do is trade and optimize around those flows, rewire cargoes into the optimal markets and highest pricing centers.

我們接下來要做的就是圍繞這些流程進行交易和優化，將貨物重新引導到最佳市場和最高定價中心。

So as an example, around 50% of our supply is open for Asia and Atlantic cross basin optimization, and we expect that to grow to around two-thirds in 2025.

舉例來說，我們約有 50% 的供應用於亞洲和大西洋跨盆地優化，我們預計到 2025 年將增長到三分之二左右。

And we also use tools continuously on a daily basis to actually look at those rewiring opportunities and they take price feeds in.

我們也會每天持續使用工具來實際尋找這些重新佈線機會並獲得價格回饋。

So we're looking at should we be flexing volumes?

所以我們正在考慮是否應該調整音量？

Should we be redirecting supply into a particular market because of a price change or an OP movement.

我們是否應該因為價格變化或 OP 運動而將供應重新分配到特定市場？

So we're constantly looking at that portfolio in order to maximize the value for BP.

因此，我們不斷關注該投資組合，以便最大限度地提高 BP 的價值。

In terms of volumes, so we had around 23 million tonnes last year, which was up 20% versus 2022.

就產量而言，去年我們的產量約為 2,300 萬噸，比 2022 年增加了 20%。

On top of that, we had 10 million tonnes, around 10 million tonnes of what we would call short term and spot contracts.

除此之外，我們還有 1000 萬噸，大約 1000 萬噸我們所謂的短期和現貨合約。

But for us, the short term, it's like a three to five year period.

但對我們來說，短期內大概就是三到五年的時間。

So it's not all spot.

所以並非全是現貨。

But if you think if you're looking for a split last year, it was 23 long term and 10 short to medium term.

但如果你想看看去年的分割情況，那麼長期投資組合中有 23 個是長期的，而短期至中期投資組合中有 10 個是短期的。

And in terms of long-term contracts, just in April, we signed with [CoGas] who has a strategic relationship with us.

就長期合約而言，就在四月份，我們與有策略合作關係的 [CoGas] 簽訂了合約。

We signed a further contract with them, which was 11 years in duration and up to 9.8 million tonnes supplying into them, which is in addition to a long-term contract we already had with him, which I think was 20 plus years.

我們與他們簽署了進一步的合同，為期 11 年，向他們供應高達 980 萬噸的煤炭，這是對我們之前與他簽訂的長期合同的補充，我認為那份合同有 20 多年了。

So we are looking at long-term contracts.

因此我們正在考慮長期合約。

We also look at short-term market opportunities.

我們也關注短期市場機會。

And I think on the -- thank you, Carol.

我認為——謝謝你，卡羅爾。

Excellent.

出色的。

We are very different than the competition.

我們與競爭對手有很大不同。

We have a different viewpoint on this and we believe in flexibility.

我們對此有不同的觀點，並且我們相信靈活性。

On biorefining, maybe just a few things to say.

關於生物精煉，也許只想說幾件事。

Over time, it's become clear that a lot of people are building biorefineries, whether it's through coprocessing or hydrocracking.

隨著時間的推移，很明顯地很多人都在建造生物精煉廠，無論是透過協同處理還是加氫裂解。

And that's not the part of the complex that will be short.

而這並不是該建築群中將會縮短的部分。

So you'll have lots of steel.

所以你會擁有很多鋼鐵。

We think we need up to three different plants that we build this decade, not have been sanctioned yet, so we still have to go through our sanction process.

我們認為，我們本十年需要建造最多三座不同的工廠，但尚未獲得批准，因此我們仍需經過批准程序。

But we think that gives us enough capacity for what we want for our aviation fleet and for our trading fleet.

但我們認為，這為我們的航空機隊和貿易機隊提供了足夠的運力。

We think instead that the value is in the upstream, and that's why we decided to reallocate scarce capital to the purchase of Bunge.

相反，我們認為價值在於上游，這就是我們決定將稀缺資本重新分配給收購邦吉的原因。

It offers us a lovely biofuels bioethanol position inside the domestic market, inside Brazil.

它為我們在巴西國內市場提供了良好的生物燃料生物乙醇地位。

It also offers tremendous opportunity to increase yields to drive better performance inside the plants, because it can be modernized significantly over time with very little investment.

它還提供了巨大的機會來提高產量，從而提高工廠內部的性能，因為它可以隨著時間的推移以很少的投資實現顯著的現代化。

And our scientists in San Diego, who we work with so closely have all kinds of different enzymes that they're thinking about that can increase yield and create different products out of it.

與我們密切合作的聖地牙哥的科學家正在研究各種不同的酶，這些酶可以提高產量並利用它們創造出不同的產品。

And last, Carol has the opportunity to on-trade this out of Brazil, which is always historically where we've been selling and into the West Coast of the United States or Europe to optimize trading flows as well.

最後，卡羅爾有機會在巴西以外進行貿易，從歷史上看，巴西一直是我們的銷售地，並且還可以進入美國西海岸或歐洲，以優化貿易流程。

So we think that, along with focusing on the upstream on things like Carinata with new seed that's where you apply your scarce capital, that's where the value will be.

因此我們認為，除了關注 Carinata 等公司的上游業務以及新種子項目之外，你還可以將稀缺資本應用到這些項目上，而這些項目的價值也將隨之產生。

And that's what's going to create long-term enduring value.

這才是能夠創造長期持久價值的東西。

It's not about any changes in viewpoint on pricing, no change on viewpoint on mandates.

這與定價觀點的改變無關，也與授權觀點的改變無關。

It's simply the fact that so many plants have been built.

事實很簡單，因為已經建造太多的工廠了。

We can toll through them as opposed to constructing them ourselves, which is much more capitally efficient for shareholders.

我們可以透過收費站運送貨物，而不是自己建造，這對股東來說更具資本效率。

So thanks for the question, Michele, and we'll come back here into the room and lead off with Lydia, please.

感謝 Michele 的提問，我們將回到房間，請 Lydia 開始發言。

Please Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

And it's Lydia Rainforth from Barclays.

她是巴克萊銀行的 Lydia Rainforth。

And hopefully you'll forget a direct question, Marie, but the idea of being simpler, more focused, higher value, I just how focused are you really on that Drive to '25.

希望您忘記一個直接的問題，瑪麗，但想法要更簡單，更專注，更高價值，我只是想知道您對‘25 年行動’到底有多專注。

And Paul, the reason I ask things like Bungie, there is an opportunity cost to doing that.

保羅，我問 Bungie 等公司的原因是因為這樣做有機會成本。

You could have taken down that any bank or Bunga TA to incorporate everything else today.

您可以取消任何銀行或 Bunga TA 以合併今天的所有其他銀行。

So actually, how focused is it really on that charge '25?

那麼實際上，它對‘25’指控的關注程度有多高？

And then secondly, on the EBITDA numbers for 2025.

其次，關於 2025 年的 EBITDA 數字。

I know you flagged the kind of price potential price impacts.

我知道您標記了價格的潛在價格影響類型。

If we were indexing for Kevin environment, what would that mean for cash returns at this stage?

如果我們為凱文環境編制索引，那麼這對於現階段的現金回報又意味著什麼？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

I'll ask Kate to answer the cash question.

我會讓凱特回答有關現金的問題。

I think it's a relatively straightforward question.

我認為這是一個相對簡單的問題。

On simpler and focus, look, when we laid out six months ago when I became CEO, we laid out six priorities.

關於更簡單和更專注，你看，當我們六個月前我成為執行長時，我們列出了六個優先事項。

Obviously, safety, obviously, drive to 2025 are big parts of that, including the cost agenda that Kate talked about earlier.

顯然，安全、顯然、推動到 2025 年都是其中的重要部分，包括凱特之前談到的成本議程。

But what we said is, we really now need to focus our efforts and focusing on the things that we're going to build this decade that will set the shape for 2030, and that's what we're focused on.

但我們說的是，我們現在真正需要集中精力，專注於我們在未來十年要建造的、將為 2030 年定下基調的事情，這就是我們所關注的。

And so you've heard us talk about focusing inside Emma's business and EV, we're focused on four core markets for EV, China where we're number one, Germany number one, UK number one or two and building out the West Coast of the US right now.

所以你聽到我們談論了艾瑪的業務和電動車，我們專注於電動車的四個核心市場，中國，我們是第一，德國是第一，英國是第一或第二，並且正在建造西海岸現在的美國。

So we're very, very focused in EV now than we've had over the past couple of years.

因此，與過去幾年相比，我們現在非常非常關注電動車。

In biofuels, focusing down the number of plants we're pursuing and there is tremendous countercyclical pricing opportunity with Bunge to create real long-term flows like we have in Arkea, that's the benefit of these renewable oilfield or gas fields.

在生物燃料領域，我們專注於正在建造的工廠數量，而邦吉擁有巨大的逆週期定價機會，可以創造真正的長期流量，就像我們在Arkea 所做的那樣，這就是這些可再生油田或天然氣田的好處。

They've got long, long flow and long, long RP associated with them, which is quite valuable.

他們擁有很長的流程和很長的 RP，這是非常有價值的。

And we said today hydrogen, we're focusing hydrogen down.

我們今天說的是氫，我們的重點是氫。

We'd chase 30 different opportunities in the past.

過去我們曾經追逐過 30 種不同的機會。

We're now thinking about what can we actually construct and get going and that's where we focused it down where we think we'll sanction around five to 10 and build five to 10 this decade with the first two being in Castellon in Spain building green electrolyzer at Castellon that will help us make SAF in Castellon and decrease the carbon intensity of the refinery and the same in Lingen.

我們現在正在考慮我們實際上可以建造什麼並開始建設，這就是我們關注的重點，我們認為我們將在十年內批准大約五到十個，並建造五到十個，前兩個是在西班牙的卡斯特利翁建造綠色卡斯特利翁的電解器將幫助我們在卡斯特利翁生產 SAF，並降低煉油廠和林根煉油廠的碳強度。

Castellon with our partner, Ibedrola, Lingen, it's 100% owned.

Castellon 是我們與 Ibedrola、Lingen 合作的子公司，擁有其 100% 的股權。

It will create 100 megawatts of green hydrogen to go into local, both for SAF and local demand.

它將產生 100 兆瓦的綠色氫氣供當地使用，既滿足 SAF 的需求，也滿足當地的需求。

And of course, the IPCEI funding that's coming from the European market for these things makes these very attractive with high returns.

當然，來自歐洲市場對此類產品的IPCEI資助使得這些產品非常有吸引力且回報率很高。

So I think Lydia, geographic focus is concentrating and concentrating and concentrating.

因此我認為，莉迪亞，地理重點是集中、集中、再集中。

You'll see more of that.

你會看到更多這樣的情況。

So we're concentrating down to fewer markets that are aligned with the movement that we're taking as moving from an IOC to IEC.

因此，我們將專注於與我們從 IOC 轉向 IEC 的舉措一致的較少的市場。

And we're picking those very best markets with the very best opportunities that give us integrated trading value or optionality outside it.

我們選擇那些擁有最佳機會的最佳市場，這些市場為我們提供了全面的交易價值或外部選擇權。

So I feel as if we are concentrating and I'd invite you each quarter to ask that as you see the announcements we make and watch how we concentrate.

因此，我感覺我們正在集中註意力，我希望你們每個季度都問這個問題，當你看到我們發布的公告並觀察我們如何集中註意力時。

I won't preannounce any other moves.

我不會預先宣布任何其他舉措。

Kate over to you.

凱特交給你了。

Certainly feels like we're focused internally -- say that.

確實感覺我們的注意力集中在內部——這麼說吧。

So it's probably a fair assessment.

因此這可能是個公平的評估。

If you just look at the impact on EBITDA, a typical proportion of that will feed into cash flow, right?

如果只看對 EBITDA 的影響，其中很大一部分通常都會轉化為現金流，對嗎？

Our cash conversion has been improving quarter-on-quarter for the last four quarters, but I think that's as good a guide as we can give you.

過去四個季度，我們的現金轉換率一直在逐季改善，但我認為這已經是我們可以給您的最佳指導了。

In terms of what your next question might be in terms of -- so what does that do for the 14.

至於您的下一個問題可能是關於——那麼這對 14 有什麼作用？

We're next going to update on February '25.

我們下次更新將於 2 月 25 日進行。

So we've moved to a cadence where we just update twice a year with regard to share buyback, we've preannounced all the way through to February '25.

因此，我們已將股票回購的節奏調整為每年更新兩次，並已預先宣布直至 2025 年 2 月。

And as a Board, we'll take into consideration facts and circumstances at that time, but anchor on the fact that we've said 80% at least 80% of surplus to buybacks.

作為董事會，我們會考慮當時的事實和情況，但要牢記我們已經說過的 80%（至少 80% 的盈餘）將用於回購的事實。

Thank you, Lydia.

謝謝你，莉迪亞。

Next question in the room.

房間裡的下一個問題。

Peter?

彼得？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Peter Low from Redburn Atlantic.

來自 Redburn Atlantic 的 Peter Low。

Yes, the first was just on the Paleogene following kind of the sanction of Kaskida, would you look to farm down your position there at some point?

是的，第一個是在古近紀，遵循卡斯基達 (Kaskida) 的製裁，你會考慮在某個時候降低你在那裡的地位嗎？

And what will be the optimum time in the development to do that?

那麼，在開發過程中什麼時候最適合實現這一點呢？

And the second was just on oil production and operations, just on the results.

第二個只是關於石油生產和運營以及結果。

I think you mentioned again that there were some price lag effects in the GoM and the UAE are you able to just quantify the approximate impact of that in the quarter?

我想您再次提到，蒙古國和阿聯酋存在一些價格滯後效應，您能否量化該效應在本季的大致影響？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Kate, do you want to do price lag and then I'll do a Paleogene.

凱特，你想做價格滯後，然後我會做古近紀。

Yes.

是的。

I think it was in the trading statement.

我認為它在交易聲明中。

I think we quantified it as between $100 million and $200 million.

我認為我們將其量化為 1 億至 2 億美元之間。

Don't think of price lag impact as a direct correlation to things like working capital, which does reverse.

不要認為價格滯後影響與營運資本等因素直接相關，因為它們確實存在逆轉。

So price lag and the degree to which it reverses in subsequent quarters depends on the pattern of prices in that quarter and also the two areas where we get the price lag in the US and in the UAE.

因此，價格滯後及其在隨後幾季的逆轉程度取決於該季度的價格模式以及美國和阿聯酋這兩個價格滯後的地區。

And the outcome that you saw is a combination of fact there was some reversal from the first quarter, but also in the first quarter, we had a read-through from the price lag impact in the fourth quarter of last year.

您所看到的結果是，與第一季相比出現了一些逆轉，但在第一季度，我們也對去年第四季的價格滯後影響進行了解讀。

On Paleogene, if you'll allow me to wax eloquent about the Paleogene for a minute. 10 billion barrels of discovered resource in the basin, that's now been highly developed by other companies.

關於古近紀，請容許我用一分鐘的時間詳細談論古近紀。該盆地已發現100億桶資源，目前已被其他公司高度開發。

It's time for us to catch up with that.

現在是我們也該迎頭趕上的時候了。

We've used an industry standard solution for Kaskida, it will produce 80 kbd.

我們針對 Kaskida 採用了業界標準解決方案，其產量將達到 80 kbd。

It will be less than $5 billion.

金額將少於 50 億美元。

It will drill six wells in the East bump.

該公司將在東部凸起處鑽六口井。

That's all that we're putting into that sanction case, delivering at least 275 million barrels.

這就是我們在該制裁案中投入的全部石油，交付至少 2.75 億桶。

When I listen to -- team, we might do quite a bit better than that.

當我聽取團隊的意見時，我們可能會做得更好。

The reason we might do quite a bit better than that is, we have 1,000 feet of pay and the average across the rest of the Paleogene is 500 feet of pay.

我們之所以能做得更好，是因為我們擁有 1,000 英尺的產油層，而古近紀其他地區的平均產油層厚度為 500 英尺。

So it's an enormous, enormous column of oil.

所以這是一個巨大的油柱。

And we'll be doing a seven frac completion inside those.

我們將在其中進行七次分餾完成。

So let's see if we get 2.75 or something much higher over time.

那麼讓我們看看隨著時間的推移我們是否會得到 2.75 或更高的數字。

It will be hopefully followed by Tiber, 12 months later, mid next year, we think we'll be sanctioning Tiber.

希望 Tiber 能緊隨其後，12 個月後，也就是明年年中，我們認為我們將批准 Tiber。

It will pretty much be a photocopy of Kaskida as well for capital productivity.

就資本生產力而言，它基本上就是卡斯基達 (Kaskida) 的複印件。

And at the same time, we're doing that, we'll be appraising the West bump at Kaskida.

同時，我們將對卡斯基達 (Kaskida) 的西部凸起進行評估。

And hopefully, that will just tie back and flow into East Kaskida over time.

希望隨著時間的推移，這種趨勢能夠回歸並流入東卡斯基達。

And we've got a couple of exploration wells to the East and West of Kaskida and some more stuff near Guadalupe and Tiber as well.

我們在卡斯基達東部和西部有幾口勘探井，在瓜達盧佩和台伯河附近還有一些勘探井。

So it's a very, very, very strong resource base.

所以這是一個非常非常強大的資源基礎。

We've got some derisking to do with appraisal wells and exploration wells that are very sensible to do, given the high-quality seismic that we've shot.

考慮到我們拍攝的高品質地震數據，我們對評估井和勘探井進行一些風險降低是非常明智的。

And obviously, to your point, Peter, we have a 100% working interest there.

顯然，正如彼得所說，我們在那裡擁有 100％ 的工作權益。

I think for now, we're going to start Kaskida, get it going.

我認為現在我們要啟動 Kaskida，讓它運作起來。

We will appraise these wells.

我們將對這些油井進行評估。

We'll drill the exploration well, see what we have.

我們將鑽探勘探井，看看能有什麼發現。

And in probably 12 to 18 months' time ask me that question again.

大概 12 到 18 個月後你再問我這個問題。

And I'll think about how much of the resource we've appraised and got under our thumb to think about what we do.

我會思考我們已經評估了多少資源，並利用多少資源來思考我們要做什麼。

Do we bring in a partner or not.

我們是否引進合作夥伴？

Kaskida alone will be a 5% increase in operating cash flow when it comes in at a group level, 5% alone, and Tiber will follow that as well.

從集團層級來看，光是 Kaskida 一家公司的營運現金流就會增加 5%，Tiber 一家公司也將隨之增加。

So it's will be an interesting choice to ask me 12 or 18 months away.

因此，在 12 或 18 個月後詢問我將是一個有趣的選擇。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Did everybody like the Kaskida pitch?

大家喜歡 Kaskida 的球場嗎？

Is that okay?

可以嗎？

Sorry for waxing eloquent, those of you on the web.

抱歉，網路上的各位，我太誇張了。

Next question to the web and then we'll come back to the room, Roger Read, please.

下一個問題是有關網路的，然後我們將回到房間，有請羅傑·里德 (Roger Read)。

Hey, Roger, can you hear us.

嘿，羅傑，你聽得到我們說話嗎？

Can you hear me.

你聽得到我嗎。

Yes, go for it Roger.

是的，加油，羅傑。

Can you all hear me now?

你們現在能聽到我的聲音嗎？

Yes, I can hear you, Roger.

是的，我聽得到你的聲音，羅傑。

Okay.

好的。

Sorry, starting with my headset.

抱歉，從我的耳機開始。

So apologies for the speaker here.

我向這裡的發言者表示歉意。

If it creates the problem from, can we just take a quick ride down the political aisle.

如果它引發了問題，我們能否快速地沿著政治道路前進。

You just had an election and a change in government in the UK.

英國剛剛經歷了選舉和政府更迭。

We've got an election coming up in the US.

美國即將舉行大選。

Anything in particular you're seeing locally or looking at over here in the US that we should be thinking about.

您在當地看到或在美國看到的任何特別的事情都是我們應該考慮的。

But I think from my hope, my hope, Roger, from all these elections is we can speed up the pace and moving forward, whether that be in the oil and gas space or in the transmission space and permitting grid connections build-outs have been an incredible drag no matter what geography you sit inside in the West, the East is different that's very fast in the East.

但我希望，羅傑，從所有這些選舉中，我們能夠加快步伐，向前邁進，無論是在石油和天然氣領域，還是在輸電領域，允許電網連接建設。是一種令人難以置信的阻力，東方的情況則不同，東方的速度非常快。

But in the West, whether that's Europe, the UK or the United States.

但在西方，無論是歐洲、英國或美國。

I'm hopeful that whoever comes in in the elections can help us with that because it's a definite drag on returns and cash flow for the corporations.

我希望無論誰當選都能幫助我們解決這個問題，因為這肯定會拖累公司的回報和現金流。

And I'm very much looking forward to seeing the pace of that pick up some.

我非常期待看到這一進程有所加快。

And as you know, we're happy we're happy to work, which with whichever governments come in and many nations, we've been around for 115 years, working with and working with all sides, all sides and all kinds of countries.

如你所知，我們很高興能與各國政府和許多國家合作，我們已經存在了 115 年，與各方、各方和各種國家合作。

So as long as you stay aligned with the country and you're paying your taxes, you're investing in your people, you're developing research and you're a good corporate citizen.

因此，只要你與國家保持一致並繳稅，你就會投資你的員工，你就會進行研究，你就是一個優秀的企業公民。

I think we're happy to work with any political affiliation in the world.

我認為我們很樂意與世界上任何政治派別合作。

Do you have a second question, Roger?

羅傑，你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes, I do.

是的，我願意。

As we think about and I don't mean this at all to criticize the cash returns you're doing now.

正如我們所想的，我這樣做絕對不是要批評您現在所做的現金回報。

But as you've laid out, pretty good path here to greater cash flows as we go towards the end of the decade.

但正如您所描述的，隨著我們接近本世紀末，這裡的現金流將會大幅增加。

What's the right way for us to think about what are some of the maybe stair-step events or other catalysts for what would make you confident to continue increasing cash payouts to shareholders on share repos, whichever.

我們應該怎麼思考，哪些可能是階梯式事件或其他催化劑，可以讓你有信心繼續增加對股東的股票回購現金支出，無論哪一種。

Yes.

是的。

I think if you think about our current financial frame and how we talk about it, we obviously have a buyback dividend mechanism that if you look backwards, it's enabled at least three 10% buybacks now.

我認為，如果你考慮我們目前的財務框架以及我們如何談論它，我們顯然有一個回購股息機制，如果你回顧過去，它現在可以實現至少三次 10% 的回購。

So that it's not guidance, it's not forward guidance, but it gives you a sense of how we think about these things.

所以這不是指導，也不是前瞻性指導，但它讓你了解我們如何看待這些事情。

And then from an underlying basis, what you should continue to hear me say is that, we're aiming for 3% to 4% on underlying growth in, we call it EBITDA, but since CapEx is relatively flat, proceeds are flat.

然後從基本面來看，你應該繼續聽我說的是，我們的目標是實現 3% 到 4% 的基本成長，我們稱之為 EBITDA，但由於資本支出相對平穩，收益也持平。

Working capital through cycle is relatively flat.

整個週期的營運資本相對穩定。

You should be thinking about 3% to 4% increase in cash flow as well moving forward.

您還應該考慮未來現金流增加 3% 至 4%。

And that comes about from two things: one, the cost efficiency drive we've talked about, where we see $2 billion by the end of 2026 million.

這是由兩件事引起的：第一，我們談到的成本效益驅動，我們預計到 2026 年底將達到 20 億美元。

Hopefully, we can go further.

希望我們能夠走得更遠。

We'll see.

我們將會看到。

Time will tell.

時間會證明一切。

Certainly, given where technology is going these days, it gives me optimism.

當然，考慮到當今技術的發展，我對此感到樂觀。

And second, construction.

第二，建設。

We are a construction company, and that's what we're doing is we're sanctioning a ton of construction projects.

我們是一家建築公司，我們的工作是批准大量的建築項目。

Six months ago, I told you that we have 32 projects that we need to sanction moving forward.

六個月前，我告訴你們，我們有 32 個專案需要批准推進。

We've been through 12 of them.

我們已經經歷過 12 個了。

We sanctioned five of them.

我們對其中五人進行了製裁。

We've said no thank you to seven.

我們已經對七說了「不，謝謝」。

But those five, along with what we've done in Bunge, what Carol is doing in Arkea, et cetera, just shows this constant construction wave and we look for that construction wave to overcome base decline in the business and grow the overall cash flows for the business by 3% to 4% per annum moving forward.

但這五家公司，以及我們在邦吉所做的、卡羅爾在阿基亞所做的等等，都表明了這一持續的建設浪潮，我們期待這一建設浪潮能夠克服業務基礎的下滑，並增加整體現金流未來每年將為企業帶來 3% 至 4% 的利潤。

So I think watch progress on construction.

因此我認為應該關注建設的進展。

And you can sure feel that -- the later part of the decade is really underpinned with a Paleogene.

而且您肯定可以感覺到 - 本世紀後半葉確實受到古近紀的影響。

That feels pretty good right now to be that well underpinned.

目前感覺非常好，得到如此良好的支持。

And we continue to do other interesting things in transition growth engines and unconventionals to drive forward the growth earlier than that.

我們也會繼續在轉型成長引擎和非常規領域進行其他有趣的工作，以推動更早的成長。

Thanks for the question, Roger.

謝謝你的提問，羅傑。

I'll go one more on the web before I come back to the room.

在我回到房間之前，我會再上網瀏覽一遍。

Ryan Todd, please.

請瑞安·托德發言。

Great, thanks.

太好了，謝謝。

Maybe a couple of gas-related questions.

也許是幾個與氣體相關的問題。

I mean as we think about your global gas business, thanks for some of the -- Carol, thanks to some of the color you gave earlier on trading.

我的意思是，當我們考慮您的全球天然氣業務時，感謝您提供的一些資訊——卡羅爾，感謝您早些時候對交易提供的一些資訊。

I mean some of your competitors have talked about gas trading, maybe trending towards the lower end of the typical range as you think about returns uplift over the next couple of years due to market dynamics.

我的意思是，您的一些競爭對手已經談到了天然氣交易，當您考慮未來幾年由於市場動態而帶來的回報率提升時，天然氣交易可能趨向於典型範圍的低端。

When you look forward at your business over the next couple of years, both of your portfolio trading mix, global supply/demand dynamics and potential impact on pricing volatility, et cetera.

當您展望未來幾年的業務時，您會關注您的投資組合交易組合、全球供需動態以及對價格波動的潛在影響等等。

What do you think about your gas trading business?

您對於自己的天然氣貿易業務有什麼看法？

And is that -- do you expect to be able to continue to grow that over the next couple of years?

您預計未來幾年這數字還能持續成長嗎？

Are there any broader dynamics that may push the kind of the returns uplift lower in the range?

是否存在更廣泛的動態因素，可能推動回報率的提升範圍降低？

And then maybe just a follow-up on specific timing, maybe any update on timing of Tortue and first gas and first cargos?

然後也許只是對具體時間的跟進，也許對 Tortue 和第一批天然氣和第一批貨物的時間有任何更新嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Tortue, and then over to Carol on Tortue, we continue to make good progress.

托爾圖 (Tortue)，然後交給托爾圖 (Tortue) 上的卡羅爾 (Carol)，我們繼續取得良好進展。

We got the FPSO into the harbor.

我們將 FPSO 駛入港口。

I think Gordon, you were out there recently.

我想戈登，你最近在那裡。

And now we're just hooking together all the equipment, and we'll have to start to flow gas relatively soon.

現在我們只需將所有設備連接在一起，很快就能開始輸送天然氣。

I think we'll start flowing gas into the systems.

我想我們會開始將氣體注入系統。

We obviously need to leak test, make sure everything is okay from the journeys across the world to get together.

我們顯然需要進行洩漏測試，確保世界各地的聚會之旅一切順利。

And once we've got the leak testing done, then you'll move into starting the refrigeration units inside the LNG, and then you can start to build up cargoes.

一旦我們完成了洩漏測試，您就可以啟動液化天然氣內部的冷凍裝置，然後就可以開始裝載貨物了。

We would look to introduce first gas into the system to start all the pressure testing, et cetera, over the next three or four months, I think, would be a comfortable place to say.

我們會考慮在未來三到四個月內將第一批氣體引入系統，開始所有的壓力測試等等，我想，這是一個比較舒服的說法。

So that's what we can say on Tortue.

這就是我們對 Tortue 的看法。

I'll just say to the teams in the field who are listening, stay safe guys, no matter what safety is all we care about.

我只想對正在現場聆聽的團隊說，大家要注意安全，無論如何，我們只關心安全。

Carol, let's see how you negotiate your performance contract.

卡羅爾，讓我們看看你是如何協商你的演出合約的。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you for that.

謝謝你。

I mean, the first thing I would say is that, from a trading and shipping perspective, overall, we've been consistent in our delivery.

我的意思是，我想說的第一件事是，從貿易和運輸的角度來看，總體而言，我們的交付一直保持一致。

So we have delivered, on average, an uplift of around 4% to the group's return on average capital employed over the past four years.

因此，過去四年來，我們平均將集團的平均資本使用回報率提高了約 4%。

So that's through a number of cycles, a number of environments.

這需要經過多個週期、多個環境。

I mean and roughly, we would say it's probably 50-50 oil gas.

我的意思是，粗略地講，我們會說石油和天然氣的比例可能是 50-50。

So we've also got a history, I would say, on the gas side of actually purchasing countercyclical.

所以我想說，在天然氣方面，我們其實也有購買逆週期產品的歷史。

So a lot of the long-term contracts that we've entered into on the supply side have been done at low points in the market.

因此，我們在供應方面簽訂的許多長期合約都是在市場低迷時期簽訂的。

So they are high-value contracts.

所以它們是高價值的合約。

And we also have strong strategic relationships in terms of contracts for sales into the East as well into other markets.

我們在東方以及其他市場的銷售合約方面也建立了牢固的策略關係。

We're a top-tier energy trader.

我們是頂級能源貿易商。

So we're going to continue to invest in the platform.

因此我們將繼續對該平台進行投資。

This is my return performance contract to Murray.

這是我與莫瑞回歸的演出合約。

We're going to continue to invest in the platform to maintain and grow that competitiveness.

我們將繼續投資該平台以保持和增強競爭力。

And that does mean in looking at access to infrastructure to downstream markets.

這確實意味著要考慮下游市場的基礎設施進入。

And I mean this is both on the oil and gas side.

我的意思是，這既涉及石油方面，也涉及天然氣方面。

And as an example, we were the leaders of going into LNG downstream in China with Guangdong JV.

舉例來說，我們與廣東合資公司一起，成為中國液化天然氣下游領域的領導者。

So we're going to be continuing to look at opportunities there to also support and develop and grow that portfolio going forward.

因此，我們將繼續尋找機會，以支持、發展和壯大該投資組合。

So I'm still we're not guiding to the future, but I'm still holding that the team will be able to continue to deliver consistently with historic performance.

因此我仍然認為我們不會指引未來，但我仍然堅信球隊將能夠繼續保持歷史性的表現。

Yes.

是的。

And we've said since 2020, we've averaged 4% incremental return on Roace on the overall group capital employed, and there's no reason to think despite dampened volatility that we wouldn't be able to continue to do that, as Carol baked in some fabulous contracts over time.

我們說過，自 2020 年以來，Roace 在整個集團資本使用上的平均增量回報率為 4%，儘管波動性有所減弱，但沒有理由認為我們無法繼續做到這一點，正如 Carol 所說隨著時間的推移，我們簽訂了一些出色的合約。

Great questions.

很好的問題。

Back in the room now.

現在回到房間。

Thanks, Murray.

謝謝，默里。

Can I ask a couple.

我可以問一對夫婦嗎？

One on refining and downstream and the other capital allocation towards the renewable power businesses.

一個是針對煉油和下游業務，另一個是針對再生能源業務的資本配置。

So refining downstream, I can't feel like I'm losing track on what the earnings power of that business actually is.

因此，在下游精煉過程中，我不能感覺自己忘記了該業務的實際獲利能力。

Clearly, a chunk of that is because you've had a lot of downtime.

顯然，這很大程度上是因為您有很多停機時間。

TAs have been a real focus this year, last year.

今年和去年，TA 一直是人們關注的焦點。

Just to try and give us some idea or some better idea of what the -- what you think the underlying earnings power of the refining assets are in a normalized price environment or at your RMM, whatever you -- however you choose to put it.

只是想嘗試給我們一些想法或更好的想法——您認為在正常化價格環境下或在您的 RMM 下，煉油資產的潛在盈利能力如何，無論您選擇如何表達。

And I guess, aligned with that on the basis of the margin environment looks as though it will be tougher going forward.

我想，與此相適應，基於利潤環境，未來的情況看起來會更加嚴峻。

You've talked in the past about margins shifting from Emma’s businesses to refining business.

您過去曾談到利潤從艾瑪的業務轉移到煉油業務。

How much of that would you expect may shift back?

您預計其中有多少會回落？

That's one question.

這是一個問題。

And the second, when you stood up -- towards the start of 2023, you talked about the allocation of $60 billion or so of capital towards the transition growth engines over the period of 2030.

第二，當您在 2023 年初站起來時，您談到了在 2030 年期間為轉型成長引擎分配約 600 億美元的資本。

I know you're going to update in next year.

我知道你明年會更新。

But do you still think that it's -- or $25 billion to $30 billion of that was going to be allocated towards hydrogen, solar, offshore wind power in effect.

但您是否仍然認為其中的 250 億至 300 億美元實際上將分配給氫能、太陽能和海上風能？

Is that still a realistic number?

這還是一個現實的數字嗎？

Or is that something that you really think you can allocate elsewhere or not allocate at all?

或者您真的認為您可以在其他地方分配或根本不分配它嗎？

That's it.

就是這樣。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Lukas, Emma do you want to tackle the refining and margin shift question, and I'll take the whole segment?

盧卡斯，艾瑪，你想解決煉油和利潤轉移問題嗎，我來負責整個部分？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

Thanks, Lucas.

謝謝，盧卡斯。

On the refining side, the first thing I'd point to is safe operational performance.

在煉油方面，我首先要指出的是安全操作性能。

That's always our focus in refining.

這始終是我們精煉的重點。

And this quarter, we did had an availability of 96.4%, and four of our refineries were up at 96.5%.

本季度，我們的可用性達到了 96.4%，我們的四家煉油廠的可用性達到了 96.5%。

Just as a reminder, last year, the full year performance for refining was 96.1%, and that was a record since 2005, if I remember right.

提醒一下，如果我沒記錯的話，去年全年煉油效率為 96.1%，這是 2005 年以來的最高紀錄。

So job number one is to run the kit safely.

因此首要任務是安全運行該套件。

And then we optimize commercially.

然後我們進行商業優化。

Actually, we don't report refining, as you know, because we put it in products.

實際上，如你所知，我們並沒有報告精煉，因為我們將其放入了產品中。

We work very closely together with Carol's business with -- on the oil trading and the product side and the midstream -- and so after job number one, which is safe operational performance, job number two is to optimize the commercial value.

我們與卡羅爾的業務在石油貿易、產品方面和中游方面密切合作，因此，在第一項工作即安全營運績效之後，第二項工作就是優化商業價值。

And we do see value move up and down the chain from customers to products and back.

我們確實看到價值在從客戶到產品再從客戶到產品的鏈條上上下下流動。

I think as I reflect on '22 and '23, we saw elevated refining margins compared to history.

我認為，當我回顧 22 年和 23 年時，我們看到煉油利潤率與歷史相比有所上升。

I think 27 RMM in the '22, '23 versus 15 in the period '15 to '21, if I remember.

如果我沒記錯的話，22 年和 23 年 RMM 數量為 27 個，而 2015 年至 2021 年期間為 15 個。

So there has been significant volatility in the refining.

因此煉油過程中出現了很大的波動。

So I'm not going to guide to the future because it's really difficult.

所以我不會指導未來，因為這真的很難。

But we do with our trading statements and Kate, we do aim to guide as we go into each quarter because the volatility just has been really, really significant over the past quarters.

但是我們確實根據交易報表和凱特（Kate）做出決定，我們確實旨在在進入每個季度時提供指導，因為過去幾個季度的波動性確實非常非常大。

And in this particular quarter, so second quarter '24, what we did see was, our RMM is based on the typical configuration of refineries in a specific region and then we blend it all together.

在這個特定季度，也就是 24 年第二季度，我們確實看到，我們的 RMM 是基於特定區域煉油廠的典型配置，然後我們將其全部混合在一起。

Actually, our advantaged refinery configuration has more distillate waiting, about 60%.

實際上，我們的優勢煉油廠配置有更多餾分油等待，大約60%。

And so that's why you saw in this quarter, with the diesel, well, the distillate in general, but the diesel margin declined significantly with gasoline going up that did impact our refining financial delivery this quarter.

這就是為什麼您在本季度看到柴油，嗯，一般是餾分油，但隨著汽油價格上漲，柴油利潤率大幅下降，這確實影響了我們本季的煉油財務交付。

So I think hard to say for the future.

所以我認為未來很難說。

The -- capacity numbers are great.

—— 容量數字很棒。

I'm not sure -- slightly uncertain obvious how much -- or the extent to which the kit is actually available and how much more kit is going to be available to optimize, make money from, et cetera, in 2025 relative to the past two years.

我不確定——稍微不確定——或者說套件實際可用的程度，以及相對於過去，2025 年將有多少套件可供優化、賺錢等等兩年。

It's the scale of the task.

這是任務的規模。

And I guess associated with TARs, I presume the cost of a TAR are actually capitalized rather than take it through P&L.

我猜想與 TAR 相關，我假定 TAR 的成本實際上是資本化的，而不是透過損益表計算的。

Is that correct?

那正確嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So in terms of the tires, we do give guidance on the tires for this.

因此就輪胎而言，我們確實為此提供了輪胎指導。

And this year, we've said the tires will be weighted towards the second half and fourth quarter.

今年，我們表示輪胎業務將主要集中在下半年和第四季。

And I think on the and on the portfolio side, we have been streamlining our portfolio for some time now and with the six refineries remaining and we will also have talked about and gals incursion in particular that we will be reducing capacity from '25 in a controlled manner by about a third.

我認為在投資組合方面，我們已經精簡了一段時間的投資組合，保留了六家煉油廠，我們還將討論，特別是我們將從 25 年開始減少產能。

So I think from a throughput capacity and availability.

所以我從吞吐能力和可用性的角度來思考。

I think I'm happy to pick it up, but happy to pick this up later, but I think we give quite an on the on the availability quarter on quarter?

我想我很高興能拿到它，但很高興稍後再拿到它，但我認為我們對季度間的可用性給予了相當大的重視？

Yes.

是的。

I'll just go back to something we have made some comments we made in a previous quarter, Lucas, which is we expect the refining TARs to decrease in intensity from '25 onwards because we've had a heavy dose of tours in '22, '23, '24 as we catched up from the COVID time period where it was impossible to mobilize individuals.

盧卡斯，我想回顧一下我們在上一季發表的一些評論，即我們預計從 25 年開始，煉油 TAR 的強度將降低，因為我們在 22 年進行了大量巡演、'23、'24，我們已經擺脫了無法動員個人的新冠疫情時期。

So we do see a lessening of the TAR environment from '25 as we've done that catch-up.

因此，隨著我們完成追趕，我們確實看到從 25 年開始 TAR 環境減弱。

Capacity, I think we've -- I think you can see the capacity, you can see where we're operating at.

容量，我想我們已經——我想你可以看到容量，你可以看到我們的營運狀況。

How much we actually utilize then is a question of supply and demand for the product.

那我們實際利用多少是一個產品供給與需求的問題。

Right now, diesel is slightly oversupplied, gasoline is about average.

目前，柴油供應略有過剩，汽油供應大致正常。

Let's see what happens in driving season.

讓我們看看駕駛季節會發生什麼。

Generally, you deplete these stocks as we move through driving season.

一般來說，隨著駕駛季節的到來，這些庫存就會耗盡。

And the interesting things to watch are, we have not seen any weather events yet in North America or Europe that would impact the refineries.

有趣的是，我們尚未看到北美或歐洲出現任何會影響煉油廠的天氣事件。

We have seen them in the Asia and the Middle East, but not yet in the West.

我們在亞洲和中東已經看到它們，但在西方還沒有出現。

So that will play on forward margin on what the earning capacity is.

因此這將對獲利能力的遠期利潤產生影響。

And there have been 600 KBD of announced shutdowns that have not occurred yet from the third-party market.

且第三方市場已有 600 KBD 宣布關閉但尚未發生。

So in Europe, UK and the US we should see that $80 million a day of capacity shrink again as these things shut down, which again means less product flow and more transfer margin.

因此，在歐洲、英國和美國，隨著這些工廠的關閉，我們應該會看到每天 8,000 萬美元的產能再次縮減，這又意味著產品流量減少和轉移利潤增加。

I think my overall conclusion in this space, Lucas, is that capacity is tight.

盧卡斯，我認為我在這方面的總體結論是，容量緊張。

Capacity is tight because continues to grow, refining capacity in the West continues to shrink.

由於產能緊張，西方煉油產能持續成長，持續萎縮。

And we continue to have weather events that are quite volatile.

我們繼續遭遇相當不穩定的天氣事件。

So I think what that leads me to is, we'll see quite a bit of volatility in margins around refining as far as the eye can see.

因此，我認為這會引導我去發現，就我們所能預見的而言，煉油利潤率將會出現相當大的波動。

That's how I relate to it.

這就是我對此的看法。

And that our earnings capacity will be based on how we do in that.

我們的獲利能力將取決於我們的表現。

On your capital allocation question, it's probably more a question for February than it is today.

關於您的資本配置問題，這可能更多的是二月的問題，而不是今天的問題。

I think the statements that I can make right now are, in offshore wind, we're happy with our portfolio.

我認為我現在可以做出的聲明是，在離岸風電領域，我們對我們的投資組合感到滿意。

We're busy building out 10 gigawatts.

我們正忙於建設10千兆瓦。

We will do that for as little capital as possible.

我們將以盡可能少的資本來實現這一點。

This for us is all about the electrons.

對我們來說，這一切都與電子有關。

So we'll lever these up as much as we can, we'll bring partners in.

因此，我們將盡可能地利用這些優勢，引入合作夥伴。

And this is all about electron flows into our own business.

這一切都與電子流入我們自己的業務有關。

That's how we relate to offshore wind.

這就是我們與離岸風電的關係。

Lightsource BP, of which we're buying 50%.

Lightsource BP，我們持有其 50% 的股份。

Once that's brought into the envelope, we adjusted a bit on what it's working on and we are happy that we optimized it.

一旦將其帶入信封，我們就會對其工作進行一些調整，我們很高興對其進行了優化。

We'll consider bringing in partners for that quite quickly.

我們會考慮很快引入合作夥伴。

So that will mean there's very little capital intensity in Lightsource BP for us.

所以這意味著對我們來說，Lightsource BP 的資本密集度非常低。

And hydrogen, let's see how we get on on the five to 10 plants.

至於氫氣，我們來看看這 5 到 10 家工廠的進展如何。

We've sanctioned two things, Castellon and Lingen.

我們已經批准了兩項，卡斯特利翁和林根。

We have big decisions coming on NetZero Teeside here in the U.K. on the Integrated Energy Hub in Cunane in Australia is a big decision, and we have a few more as well that we need to think our way through.

我們就英國的 NetZero Teeside 和澳洲的庫納內的綜合能源中心做出了重大決策，此外，我們還有一些其他決策需要仔細考慮。

Whatever those capital decisions are that will determine what the capital is for the decade, and I'd hate to prejudge that right now.

無論這些資本決策是什麼，它們都將決定未來十年的資本，而我現在不想對此做出預先判斷。

I hope that helps, Lucas.

我希望這對你有幫助，盧卡斯。

Another question in the room, Martijn?

馬丁，房間裡還有其他問題嗎？

Hi.

你好。

Hello.

你好。

It's Martijn Rats for Morgan Stanley.

我是摩根士丹利的馬丁拉特斯 (Martijn Rats)。

I've got two questions, if I may.

如果可以的話，我有兩個問題。

First of all, on the previous call, there was a question about the production profile in the second half of the decade due towards 2030 and what that could look like.

首先，在先前的電話會議中，有一個問題是關於2030年左右下半個世紀的生產狀況以及將會是什麼樣子。

And I remember you mentioning at the time said, well, we have 32 possible FIDs ahead.

我記得您當時提到過，我們有 32 個可能的 FID。

And what we decide on those will determine how that looks like.

我們對此所做的決定將決定其最終的樣子。

I fully recognize you haven't done all 32 by now, but you've done 12, and you seem to have some strong ideas about Tiber and a few others.

我完全認識到你現在還沒有完成全部 32 個，但你已經完成了 12 個，而且你似乎對 Tiber 和其他一些事情有一些強烈的想法。

So perhaps some clarity is emerging of what the production profile could look like in the second half of the decade and not to preempt yet another question that it shifted to February.

因此，也許人們對本世紀下半葉的生產狀況會有了一些清晰的認識，而不是搶先回答轉移到二月的另一個問題。

But could you say something about the production profile in the second half of the decade?

但您能談談本世紀下半葉的生產概況嗎？

The other one I wanted to ask is about impairments.

我想要問的另一個問題是關於損傷。

BP is not alone in this, but the impairments continue to run at very high levels.

英國石油公司 (BP) 並非唯一遭遇此種情形的公司，但虧損額仍維持在很高的水準。

And every quarter we go noncash, but it was cash ones.

我們每季都會採用非現金形式，但以前都是現金形式。

And impairments, they're not great.

而且損害並不大。

Can you say anything about what the outlook is for further impairment charges over the quarters and possibly years ahead?

您能否談談未來幾季乃至幾年內進一步減損費用的前景？

Great.

偉大的。

Kate I'll let you do impairments.

凱特，我會讓你做損傷。

On production profile, Martijn, I think so we've gone through 12 different sanctions, five of them we've approved, seven we have not.

關於生產概況，馬丁，我想我們已經經歷了 12 項不同的製裁，其中 5 項我們已批准，7 項尚未批准。

The two that we've approved in the upstream -- actually three in the upstream, sorry, we did Atlantis DC1 last time around.

我們在上游批准了兩個 — — 實際上是上游三個，抱歉，我們上次批准的是 Atlantis DC1。

We've done Ruwais and we've done Kaskida.

我們已經完成了魯韋斯 (Ruwais) 和卡斯基達 (Kaskida)。

Tiber looks hopeful, but we need to work our way through the supply chain to make sure that's the case.

Tiber 看起來充滿希望，但我們需要透過供應鏈來確保情況確實如此。

So I can't prejudge Tiber, but I feel optimistic about it today.

因此我無法對 Tiber 進行預先判斷，但我今天對它感到樂觀。

So we have done some, but there's an awful lot more to go as we think about it in that program of 32.

所以我們已經做了一些，但當我們考慮在 32 個程序中還有更多的工作要做。

But I don't -- I'm not really thinking about production, what I'm thinking about is cash flow and returns.

但我沒有——我實際上沒有考慮生產，我考慮的是現金流和回報。

How can I really drive the upstream to be as prolific as possible on cash flow growth through the decade at the return hurdles that we have or better.

我怎麼能真正推動上游在未來十年內盡可能地實現現金流成長，達到我們現有的或更好的回報障礙？

That's what that's how I really think about it.

我確實是這麼想的。

And what we've guided on cash flow is growing to 25% and then relatively stable.

我們預計現金流將成長 25%，然後保持相對穩定。

I'm optimistic we'll do better than that.

我樂觀地認為我們會做得更好。

I don't know what the production associated with that will be, but I'm optimistic that we can do better with that given the quality of the portfolio.

我不知道與此相關的產量會是多少，但考慮到投資組合的質量，我樂觀地認為我們可以做得更好。

So let's see, Martijn.

那麼讓我們看看，馬丁。

I think that's all I can say right now.

我想這就是我現在能說的全部。

And yes, we'll update you in February.

是的，我們將在二月向您更新訊息。

Kate, over to you on impairments.

凱特，關於損傷的問題交給你了。

Yes.

是的。

So at 2Q, a chunk of the impairments were due to refining.

因此，在第二季度，很大一部分減損是由於煉油造成的。

And we've made previous announcements with regard to how we're seeking to optimize the Galfan Korkan and in particular, reducing the capacity there by a third.

我們之前已經宣布過如何優化 Galfan Korkan，特別是減少那裡有三分之一的產能。

We said in the trading statement, it would be $1 billion to $2 billion post tax, we're being in the middle of that, impairments came in at $1.5 billion.

我們在交易聲明中說過，稅後利潤將在 10 億美元至 20 億美元之間，我們正處於這個數字的中間，減損損失為 15 億美元。

The other point to just comment on with regard to refining is, we as a function of the accounting rules, which push you to be prudent, we took onerous contract provisions in the second quarter.

關於煉油的另一點是，根據促使您謹慎行事的會計規則，我們在第二季採取了繁重的合約條款。

Those are calculated at a point in time before you have any option to commercially negotiate the outcome.

這些都是在您可以選擇透過商業方式談判確定結果之前的某個時間點進行計算的。

So I would expect we'll do an awful lot better than that.

因此我期望我們能做得更好。

And I give Emma a stretch target now that we see that entirely reversing as we step through it, because currently it's noncash cost, that truly is noncash cost.

現在我為艾瑪設定了一個延伸目標，我們看到隨著我們的逐步推進，情況將完全逆轉，因為目前這是非現金成本，這確實是非現金成本。

With regard to impairments going forward, it's a function of business decisions that we make in plans and environment.

至於未來的損害，它是我們在計劃和環境中做出的商業決策的函數。

So I'm not going to start predicting what that's going to look like, but I take your point.

所以我不會開始預測它會是什麼樣子，但我接受你的觀點。

It's a bit tricky with IFRS, it makes you it effectively brings your asset values, but just mechanically brings your asset values down to your price and your discount rate.

IFRS 有點棘手，它可以讓您有效地提高資產價值，但只是機械地將您的資產價值降低到您的價格和折現率。

And then if your discount rate increases, you impair your discount rate drops the write-back.

然後，如果您的折現率增加，那麼您的折現率就會降低，回撥也會下降。

And if your price points change up and down, you have to you have to write back, et cetera.

如果您的價格點上下變動，您必須回复，等等。

So I tend to think of it more like advanced depreciation because it's it's forcing us to depreciate earlier than we otherwise might have.

因此，我傾向於將其視為提前折舊，因為它迫使我們比原本更早折舊。

And that's the nature of the nature of financial rules.

這就是金融規則的本質。

So I am that's just another another thing to think about Martin, as you as you look at it.

所以我認為這只是關於馬丁的另一件事，正如你所看到的。

I just had a question for Emma about the marketing business.

我只是想問艾瑪一個關於行銷業務的問題。

If you could give some picture on globally what you're seeing in same-store sales, particularly how may that shifts between -- splits between footfall and basket size and particularly within that actually the US given that you did call out previous quarters that you're seeing signs of consumer recession in the US.

如果你能介紹一下全球同店銷售額的情況，特別是客流量和購物規模之間的差異，特別是美國的情況，因為你提到了前幾季度的情況我們看到美國消費衰退的跡象。

Yes.

是的。

So in the marketing business, in terms of -- I think about we've got we did $4.5 billion last year and aiming towards the $7 billion in the four big areas of growth that we're aiming for.

因此在行銷業務方面——我認為我們去年的營收為 45 億美元，我們的目標是在四大成長領域實現 70 億美元的營收。

The first one is in continued performance and convenience.

首先是持續的性能和便利性。

We saw 6% margin growth first half this year versus first half last year.

與去年上半年相比，今年上半年的利潤率成長了 6%。

To your question specifically on what is the growth is made up of like-for-like versus store revamps, it depends on the market.

對於您提出的具體問題，即成長是由同類銷售成長還是店面改造成長所構成的，這取決於市場。

So in the US, specifically, it's probably about a third like-for-like and two-third store revamps.

因此，具體來說，在美國，大概有三分之一的同類商店進行了改造，三分之二的商店進行了改造。

And each market is different depending on whether you have a program of store revamp.

每個市場都是不同的，這取決於您是否有商店改造計劃。

So for example, we have store revamps currently under way in Poland.

例如，我們目前正在波蘭進行商店改造。

So there's more on the store revamp side.

關於商店改造方面還有更多內容。

So continued performance and convenience will be a big part of our growth in the marketing businesses as we look through 2024 and 2025.

因此，展望 2024 年和 2025 年，持續的效能和便利性將成為我們行銷業務成長的重要組成部分。

In our base, when I think about the base business, Castrol has now had six quarters of momentum.

在我們的基礎上，當我想到基礎業務時，嘉實多現在已經擁有六個季度的強勁發展勢頭。

We had a record quarter in aviation this year.

今年我們的航空業創下了新紀錄。

And our cost program that I talked about earlier will continue to give some engine -- growth engine to the base business.

我之前談到的成本計劃將繼續為基礎業務提供成長引擎。

I talked as well about EV already and Bunge will also contribute in that.

我之前也討論過 EV，邦吉也將為此做出貢獻。

So as I look at sort of the big picture for the marketing business, I think we're well on track, and it's made up of a whole I mean, literally 20,000 sites on the retail side.

因此，當我審視行銷業務的整體情況時，我認為我們的進展順利，它由整個零售業務（我的意思是，實際上有 20,000 個網站）組成。

We worked them top line, bottom line, and we work all the other B2B businesses as well.

我們為他們提供營收和利潤服務，我們也為所有其他 B2B 企業提供服務。

So really a big diverse portfolio there to get after.

因此，確實存在著龐大而多元化的投資組合。

Amazing, we're number five in convenience in the United States would have thought.

令人驚訝的是，我們在美國便利性方面排名第五。

Chris?

克里斯？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Chris Kuplent from Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Chris Kuplent。

Two questions.

兩個問題。

First one is on your '25 targets again.

第一個再次是關於你的『25 個目標』。

And I think Emma, you referred to '22, '23 as remarkable years in many respects in terms of achieved refining margins.

我認為艾瑪，您提到的 22、23 年在煉油利潤率方面在許多方面都是非凡的年份。

So I wonder, can you add a little bit more subtlety around what I -- was a very subtle change already suggesting that these EBITDA targets are to be achieved at '23 prices.

所以我想知道，您能否對我已經做出的非常微妙的變化進行一些更微妙的解釋，表明這些 EBITDA 目標將以 23% 的價格實現。

And I recall that they used to be based on mid-cycle assumptions way back in '21 when we didn't have RMMs above 20% and yet they were above 20% in both '23 as well as in H1.

我記得它們曾經基於 21 年的中期週期假設，當時我們的 RMM 沒有超過 20%，但在 23 年和 H1 中它們都超過了 20%。

And if I extrapolate H1 earnings, I kind of struggle to get to that EBITDA figure even if I give you full credit for these EV and low carbon growth numbers coming through.

如果我推斷上半年的收益，即便我將這些電動車和低碳成長數據的功勞全部歸功於你，我也很難得到 EBITDA 數字。

So I wonder what you can talk to us through about that.

所以我想知道您能和我們談談這個問題。

I thought quite subtle change in underlying assumptions behind these '25 targets.

我認為這些『25個目標』背後的基本假設發生了相當微妙的變化。

And then just a follow-up for you, Kate, on the net working capital.

然後凱特，我再問你一下關於營運淨資本的問題。

Is it appropriate to think about the Q2 as a $1.5 billion roughly reversal because the headline of $500 million or so includes the Gulf of Mexico spill payment?

由於 5 億美元左右的賠款包括了墨西哥灣漏油事故的賠償，因此將第二季的賠款視為約 15 億美元的逆轉是否合適？

And are you confident that the remainder of the Q1 build is going to reverse in Q3?

您是否相信第一季剩餘的成長動能將在第三季逆轉？

Or what more color can you give us around that?

或者您能為我們提供更多有關該問題的詳細資訊嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

So maybe if I take that one first. we had a $2.4 billion capital build -- working capital build in the first quarter.

因此我可能先選擇那個。我們在第一季的資本累積——營運資本累積達 24 億美元。

Yes, it's about $1.5 billion that's come back this quarter.

是的，本季回款約 15 億美元。

So we've got about another $1 billion to come.

因此我們還有大約 10 億美元要投入。

So as I said, I think earlier, we are expecting net working capital release in third quarter.

正如我之前所說，我們預計第三季將釋放淨營運資本。

So my expectation based on our current forecast is that, net debt will trend down in the third quarter prior to acquisitions that will consolidate acquired debt, right?

因此，根據我們目前的預測，我的預期是，在收購之前，淨債務將在第三季下降，從而鞏固所收購的債務，對嗎？

On the assumptions.

基於假設。

I think at 1Q, it might have been 4Q when we were talking, we made it very clear, we were building from the '23 delivery to how you are confident in the '25 targets.

我認為，在我們討論的第一季度，可能是第四季度，我們已經非常清楚地表明，我們正在從 23 年的交付量構建到您對 25 年目標的信心。

And we said, okay, at these prices, with these buckets of growth that we've got line of sight to in the underlying business, that's how you get to your $46 million to $49 million.

我們說，好吧，按照這些價格，加上我們在基礎業務中看到的這些成長趨勢，這就是你實現 4,600 萬到 4,900 萬美元收入的方法。

And we will ask you to triangulate back to that.

我們會請您對此進行三角測量。

I think, and maybe Craig and the IR team can follow up afterwards.

我想，也許 Craig 和 IR 團隊可以隨後跟進。

When the original slide was put out, there was a footnote which talked about 2021 planning assumptions.

原始幻燈片放出時，有一個腳註，談到了 2021 年的規劃假設。

So maybe, Craig, you can pick that up with Chris after the call.

所以，克雷格，也許你可以在通話結束後向克里斯詢問此事。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

It’s Josh Stone of UBS.

他是瑞銀的喬許史東。

First, I want to pick up on the decision to fully consolidate Bunge and Lightsource BP, because it seems like there are some companies in the sector are choosing to separate out those businesses and you've got your way to fully consolidate and back into the BP balance sheet, too.

首先，我想談談全面整合邦吉和 Lightsource BP 的決定，因為看起來該行業有些公司選擇將這些業務分離出來，而你們已經找到了完全整合並重新回到BP的資產負債表也是如此。

Can you talk about the benefits of those businesses being part of BP versus a stand-alone entity.

您能談談這些業務作為 BP 的一部分相對於作為獨立實體的優勢嗎？

So that's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

And second one, I did want to follow up on sort of surplus cash flow and buybacks.

第二，我確實想跟進剩餘現金流和回購的情況。

Because if we look at the first half of the year, surplus cash flow has underperformed where your buyback level is.

因為如果我們看一下上半年，盈餘現金流的表現已經低於你的回購水準。

And so you -- it looks like you've been using debt to help pay the buyback.

所以你—看起來你一直在用債務來幫助支付回購費用。

But when you decided to maintain the buyback flat and clearly using the outlook, and you've mentioned a lot of the positives on the outlook you're using to maintain that buyback.

但是當您決定維持回購平穩並明確使用前景時，您已經提到了許多用於維持回購的前景積極因素。

So maybe just go through some of the one of the key building blocks in that improvement on surplus cash -- and how much of an outlook are you using?

因此，也許只需回顧一下改善盈餘現金的一些關鍵基石——以及您使用了多少展望？

Is it just the second half of this year?

是不是就今年下半年啊？

Or are you also counting on 2025 growth to help maintain the buyback?

或者您還指望 2025 年的成長來幫助維持回購？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

I'll start with Lightsource BP, then Emma, you want to handle Bunge consolidation and then Kate.

我將從 Lightsource BP 開始，然後是 Emma，你想處理 Bunge 合併，然後是 Kate。

I think on Lightsource BP, look, we had a partner when we put it off balance sheet back in 2017 fabulous entrepreneur, helped us grow the business up to four or five gigawatt development per year, but hit the end of when they wanted to continue doing this.

我認為在Lightsource BP 上，我們在2017 年將其從資產負債表中移除時，有一個合作夥伴，他是一位出色的企業家，幫助我們將業務發展到每年4 到5 千兆瓦的開發量，但當他們想繼續時，就到了最後這樣做。

So now is the time where they wanted to cash out, it was convenient for us to go in and take control over 100%.

所以現在是他們想要套現的時候，我們可以很方便地進入並且 100% 控制。

It's a fabulous vehicle to go and help Carol build out her business.

這是一輛非常棒的工具，可以幫助卡蘿拓展她的事業。

So many customers around the world want natural gas coupled with power -- clean power to start to decarbonize their own energy systems.

世界各地的許多客戶都希望利用天然氣和電力——清潔能源來開始實現其能源系統的脫碳。

And with the growth of hyperscalers, we're seeing just increased demand after demand after demand.

隨著超大規模企業的成長，我們看到需求不斷增加。

So taking 100% control of that entity given that incredible native demand we see for energy, especially from the hyperscalers now and the desire of nations to transition makes an awful lot of sense.

因此，考慮到我們看到的對能源的巨大本土需求，特別是現在超大規模企業的需求，以及各國轉型的願望，對該實體進行 100% 的控制是非常有意義的。

At the same time, once you've taken that control, you've restructured it, done some stuff to the portfolio based on where your customers sit, et cetera, you will then think about bringing a passive partner into this.

同時，一旦你掌握了控制權，對其進行了重組，根據客戶的情況對投資組合做了一些事情等等，你就會考慮將被動合作夥伴引入其中。

You'll think about giving a passive partner it.

您會考慮將它贈送給被動的伴侶。

They've got a very different cost of capital than we have.

他們的資本成本和我們的截然不同。

And so that should offer the chance to arbitrage the price over time.

因此，這應該會提供隨著時間的推移進行價格套利的機會。

Murray.

穆雷。

Well, let's see when we complete and then probably over 12 to 18 months, we'd bring somebody else in.

好吧，讓我們看看當我們完成時，大概需要 12 到 18 個月的時間，我們才會引進其他人。

So that's why we think it was a really good time, both given where the partner was, the opportunity we see in the market and how we see that business moving forward.

因此，我們認為這是一個非常好的時機，考慮到合作夥伴的狀況、我們在市場中看到的機會以及我們對業務未來發展的看法。

So that's how we think about Lightsource BP.

這就是我們對 Lightsource BP 的看法。

Emma, on Bunge?

艾瑪，在邦吉嗎？

Yes, as sort of a very short answer on Bungie.

是的，這是 Bungie 的一個非常簡短的回答。

We've been in the joint venture since 2019.

我們自 2019 年以來就一直處於合資狀態。

So we actually understand the operational performance metrics now quite well and saw the opportunity to take the 50% to then consolidate 100% because the two biggest sources of value are inaccessible to us as just a 15%, namely the first one is about integrating with Carol's business on the trading side.

因此，我們現在實際上非常了解營運績效指標，並且看到了將50% 轉化為100% 的機會，因為兩個最大的價值來源對我們來說是無法獲得的，只有15%，即第一個是關於與卡羅爾從事貿易方面的業務。

So that's a big source of value.

所以這是一個巨大的價值來源。

They're very difficult to do when you're 50-50.

當比例為 50-50 時，這些事情很難做到。

And and then the other source of value is applying Larry, you mentioned earlier some of the science, but also some of our techniques from refining on automated control systems.

然後，另一個價值來源是應用 Larry，您之前提到的一些科學，以及我們在改進自動控制系統方面的一些技術。

For example, we see the opportunity to increase the mill uptime and so again, difficult to do when you're when it's in a joint venture, 50-50.

例如，我們看到了增加工廠正常運作時間的機會，但是，當雙方股份為 50-50 的合資企業時，要做到這一點卻很困難。

So I think the source of the value and we can see them immediately ahead of us in the near term and then there's tons to do long term, a lot to do on the biogas side, we can use the waste from the mills and we'll take relatively small investment waste from the mills to be able to then convert into biogas, digester, biogas and then either using our own vehicle network with a massive vehicle network there.

所以我認為價值的來源，我們可以在短期內立即看到它們，然後還有很多長期的工作要做，在沼氣方面有很多工作要做，我們可以利用工廠的廢物，我們'我們會從工廠中吸收相對較少的投資，將這些廢料轉化為沼氣、消化池沼氣，然後使用我們自己的車輛網絡和那裡的大規模車輛網絡。

We have 1,500 vehicles combined harvesters in the field and either to use your own fleet over time or to sell into the grid.

我們在現場擁有 1,500 輛聯合收割機，您可以長期使用自己的車隊或出售給電網。

That's a big opportunity.

這是一個很大的機會。

Again, hard to do when you're 50-50 and you have different objectives for the joint venture and then there's more to do in the future on and on next generation ethanol.

再說了，當雙方各佔一半股份並且對合資企業有不同的目標時，要做到這一點很難，而且未來在下一代乙醇方面還有很多事情要做。

So I think those things we see both near term sources of value and then in the long in the medium to long term opportunities for investment to really bring this to life.

所以我認為，我們看到的這些事情既有短期的價值來源，也有中長期的投資機會，可以真正實現這一目標。

So our decisions are driven by how do we create the maximum value for shareholders.

因此，我們的決策取決於如何為股東創造最大價值。

That's how we drive.

這就是我們的駕駛方式。

And that's the two examples in that case.

這就是該案例中的兩個例子。

Kate, over to you on the other question yes.

凱特，另一個問題交給你了，是的。

Yes.

是的。

So when we updated the fin frame at the fourth quarter, we deliberately stepped away from the quarter-on-quarter calculation of surplus cash because it was creating an awful lot of volatility and perhaps unhelpful focus on what's your absolute surplus cash in any one quarter.

因此，當我們在第四季度更新財務框架時，我們故意放棄了按季度計算盈餘現金的做法，因為這會造成很大的波動，而且也許不利於我們關注任何一個季度的絕對盈餘現金。

So we wanted to provide predictability and a level of certainty into the market with regard to the forward share buyback.

因此，我們希望為市場提供遠期股票回購的可預測性和一定程度的確定性。

1Q, we had a whiting outage that was significant, as you know.

第一季度，我們遭遇了一次嚴重的停電，正如您所知。

So the surplus cash was lower than we might have expected.

因此，剩餘現金低於我們的預期。

At 2Q, the level of share buyback compared to surplus cash is down to 59%.

第二季度，股票回購水準與剩餘現金相比下降至 59%。

So what we're saying is, 80% over time, at least 80% over time to surplus cash.

因此，我們的意思是，隨著時間的推移，80% 將會變成盈餘現金。

And as the Board makes its decisions and as we had the conversation last week with regard to the second half of 2024, we take into consideration what's come today and what's coming forward.

當董事會做出決定時，以及我們上週就 2024 年下半年進行討論時，我們會考慮今天發生的事情以及未來將發生的事情。

And we're confident in the delivery of the business.

我們對業務的交付充滿信心。

We're confident in the improved performance.

我們對改進後的性能充滿信心。

There's a lot of discipline that we're putting into the capital frame.

我們對資本框架施加了許多紀律約束。

As you know, we've tightened that right down to around 16% for the year, and we're bang on that at the first half.

如你所知，我們今年已將這一目標縮減至 16% 左右，而上半年我們已經完全實現了這一目標。

Divestments are slightly higher than 2023 at 2% to 3%.

撤資比例略高於 2023 年的 2% 至 3%。

We've probably got between $1 billion and $2 billion more to come on that.

我們可能還會為此投入 10 億到 20 億美元。

And we've got a full year of cash flow from TA to take into consideration.

我們還需要考慮 TA 全年的現金流。

So we're confident in our delivery and our outlook for the remainder of 2024.

因此，我們對我們的交付和 2024 年剩餘時間的前景充滿信心。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, Kate.

謝謝，凱特。

I realize that we're overrunning, so I'm going to take one more call on the phone.

我意識到我們已經超時了，所以我要再接一個電話。

Apologies for that with Doug Leggate at Wolfe, and then I'm going to have to close it down, and we'll follow up with any other questions out there.

對此，Wolfe 的 Doug Leggate 表示歉意，然後我將不得不結束此主題，我們將跟進其他問題。

Doug, over to you.

道格，交給你了。

Thank you, Murray.

謝謝你，默里。

I can you hear me okay?

你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes, I hear you great.

是的，我聽到了您的聲音。

Thanks, Doug.

謝謝，道格。

Yes.

是的。

My follow-up is, I want to come up to the buyback question.

我的後續問題是，我想談談回購的問題。

I've had the pleasure of covering many of your peers for three decades.

三十年來，我很榮幸能夠報道你們的許多同行。

And the big difference between those buying back stock in yourselves is a much, much stronger balance sheet.

而那些回購股票的人與那些自己回購股票的人之間的巨大區別在於，他們的資產負債表要強大得多。

And if I look at your share performance since you started the buyback, you really haven't had any benefit.

如果我看一下自從你開始回購以來的股票表現，你確實沒有得到任何好處。

Your share price is down and you bought back a fifth of your stock, but your net debt remains relatively high if you include the hybrids.

你的股價下跌了，你回購了五分之一的股票，但如果包括混合型股票，你的淨債務仍然相對較高。

I'm just curious why you believe that method of cash return is still the optimal way to maximize value for shareholders.

我只是好奇為什麼您認為現金回報方式仍然是實現股東價值最大化的最佳方式。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

On long-term production, yes, we're running about 2.3 right now, but of course, we've got some divestments.

就長期生產而言，是的，我們目前運行著大約 2.3 個生產，但當然，我們也進行了一些撤資。

We've announced the divestment of Egypt into a joint venture that will take effect in fourth quarter, I think, which should drop production about 50 kbd, so it will be down at 2,250, and then we have some other divestments that we continue to pursue low-margin, high-volume assets that may or may not happen, but if they were to happen, that would drop their production to around 2-ish.

我們已經宣布將埃及的石油資產轉讓給合資企業，我認為該交易將於第四季度生效，這將使石油產量下降約5 萬桶/天，因此產量將下降至2,250 萬桶/天，然後我們也會繼續進行其他一些資​​產轉讓追求低利潤、高產量的資產，這種情況可能會發生，也可能不會發生，但如果發生了，他們的產量將下降到 2 左右。

As far as what the production outturn looks like for the back end of the decade.

就本世紀末的生產結果而言，情況如何？

Of course, we'll update you on February and where that is.

當然，我們會向您通報二月的情況和地點。

And I'll just repeat what I said earlier.

我只是重複我之前說過的話。

I'm focused on cash flow and returns.

我關注的是現金流和回報。

And production will be an outcome of that, but I'm really, really focused on growing cash flow.

生產將由此產生，但我真的非常專注於增加現金流。

If I just wanted to grow volume, I could plow all the money in the world into the Haynesville and I could grow volumes like crazy, but that's not the right thing to do for shareholders is to create cash flow and returns.

如果我只是想增加產量，我可以將世界上所有的錢投入海恩斯維爾，我可以瘋狂地增加產量，但這不是為股東創造現金流和回報的正確做法。

And so that's why I'm focused so much on that, Doug.

這就是我如此關注這一點的原因，道格。

So I hope that helps you.

我希望這對你有幫助。

And Kate, over to you.

凱特，交給你了。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Murry.

謝謝，Murry。

Doug, hi, nice to hear your voice.

道格，嗨，很高興聽到你的聲音。

We've already had one debate with regard to share buybacks versus debt.

我們已經就股票回購與債務進行過一次辯論。

I'm sure we'll have others by the sound of it.

從聽起來我確信我們還會有其他人。

Look, I think I said earlier on the call, the investors that we talked to, they like the balance of the financial frame as we've currently got it structured.

聽著，我想我之前在電話會議上說過，我們交談過的投資者喜歡我們目前建立的財務框架的平衡。

As I said, it's sector-leading distributions.

正如我所說，這是行業領先的分佈。

And the balance sheet is in good shape.

資產負債表狀況良好。

It is strong.

它很強大。

We have brought it down a significant amount since 2020.

自 2020 年以來，我們已大幅降低了這一數字。

And the flywheel that the share buybacks give us to be able to continually increase dividends, as you've seen in the last three years we have done 10% each of the second quarters.

股票回購為我們帶來的飛輪效應使我們能夠不斷增加股息，正如您所看到的，在過去三年中，我們每個第二季度的股息都增加了 10%。

It creates a flywheel for that and the increasing earnings per share.

它為此和每股收益的增加創造了一個飛輪。

So for now, we're comfortable with where that sits, and we like the balance, and so do our investors.

所以就目前而言，我們對現狀感到滿意，我們喜歡這種平衡，我們的投資者也是如此。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks very much, everybody.

非常感謝大家。

Thanks for listening.

感謝您的聆聽。

Sorry, we overran a bit, and I hope everybody has a nice one.

抱歉，我們稍微超時了，希望大家過得很愉快。

Take care.

小心。