英國石油 (BP) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

A warm welcome to everyone joining us in person at our headquarters today and to those joining online and on the phones. I trust everyone has had a chance to watch the second quarter 2024 video presentation and read our stock exchange announcement, both of which were posted this morning on our website, bp.com. We heard the feedback that you appreciated this new format. For today, we're aiming to finish the call at 2:00 PM UK time.

熱烈歡迎今天親自來到我們總部以及透過網路和電話加入我們的每一個人。我相信每個人都有機會觀看 2024 年第二季度視訊演示並閱讀我們的證券交易所公告，這兩者均於今天早上發佈在我們的網站 bp.com 上。我們聽到了您對這種新格式表示讚賞的回饋。今天，我們的目標是在英國時間下午 2:00 結束通話。

So with that let me hand over to Murray for some brief opening remarks.

那麼接下來讓我請默里做一些簡短的開場白。

Great. Thanks, Craig, and thanks to everyone for joining today. I'm in the room and I'm joined by Kate Thomson, CFO; Carol Howle, EVP, Trading and Shipping; and Emma Delaney, EVP Customers and Products, which luckily for me will provide me with the opportunity to pass all difficult questions to them today.

偉大的。謝謝克雷格，也謝謝大家今天加入。我在會議室，財務長凱特湯姆森 (Kate Thomson) 也在場。 Carol Howle，貿易與運輸執行副總裁；以及客戶和產品執行副總裁艾瑪·德萊尼 (Emma Delaney)，幸運的是，我今天有機會向他們提出所有難題。

To recap on today's results, our operations are running really well. 96% upstream plant reliability and 96% refining availability in the quarter. We generated strong operating cash flow of $8.1 billion, net debt reduced by $1.4 billion to $22.6 billion, and we remain confident in the opportunity and potential we have in growing the value of BP.

回顧今天的結果，我們的營運運作得非常好。本季上游工廠可靠度為 96%，煉油可用性為 96%。我們產生了 81 億美元的強勁營運現金流，淨債務減少了 14 億美元，達到 226 億美元，我們對增加 BP 價值的機會和潛力仍然充滿信心。

This should be clear with today's 10% increase in our announced dividends, the $1.75 billion buyback in respect of our 2Q results, and our commitment to announce $3.5 billion of share buybacks for the second half of 2024. That's $1.75 billion to be announced each at 3Q and 4Q results.

今天我們宣布的股利增加了10%，針對第二季業績進行了17.5 億美元的回購，以及我們承諾在2024 年下半年宣布35 億美元的股票回購，這一點應該很清楚。 ，將在2024 年下半年宣布的每股回購金額為17.5 億美元。

You'll have heard from our video some real examples of us in action delivering on our six priorities. We've accomplished an awful lot over the past six months. Of course, there's always more to do. And we have clear focus on our drive to 2025, which we can control. We see a lot of opportunity ahead of us, and we're remaining pragmatic, flexible, focused on value. And we look forward to updating you on our medium-term plans in February next year.

您將從我們的影片中聽到一些我們為實現六大優先事項而採取行動的真實例子。在過去的六個月裡，我們取得了許多成就。當然，總是有更多事情要做。我們明確將重點放在我們可以控制的 2025 年目標上。我們看到前面有很多機會，我們將保持務實、靈活、專注於價值。我們期待在明年 2 月向您通報我們的中期計劃的最新情況。

So Kate, Carol, Emma, and I are here to answer your questions. Can we ask each of you please to limit your questions to two, and I'll go ahead and start off here in the room.

凱特、卡蘿、艾瑪和我在這裡回答你們的問題。我們可以請你們每個人將問題限制為兩個，然後我將在房間裡開始。

Irene, why don't we start with you, please.

艾琳，我們為什麼不從你開始呢？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Irene Himona at Bernstein, and congratulations.

伯恩斯坦的艾琳希莫納 (Irene Himona)，恭喜你。

My first question concerns progress towards the $2 billion operating cost reduction target you announced, particularly in the context of a 4% increase in unit upstream costs, which I see.

我的第一個問題涉及您宣布的 20 億美元營運成本削減目標的進展情況，特別是在我所看到的單位上游成本增加 4% 的背景下。

My second question on transition engine EBITDA, which in the first half has halved year-on-year.

我的第二個問題是關於過渡引擎的 EBITDA，上半年比去年同期減少了一半。

I can see biofuels, convenience, renewables, they're all down.

我可以看到生物燃料、便利設施、再生能源，它們都在下降。

So it seems even if EV charging and hydrogen break, even by year end, the $3 billion to $4 billion next year looks a bit challenged.

因此，即使電動車充電和氫能突破，即使到年底，明年的 30 億至 40 億美元看起來還是有點挑戰。

But that was my question.

但這是我的問題。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, Irene.

謝謝，艾琳。

I'll let Kate lead off on cost and maybe Emma you can amplify a bit and then I'll tackle the TGs and pass over to Carol and Emma as well.

我會讓凱特（Kate）主導成本，也許艾瑪（Emma）你可以放大一點，然後我將處理 TG 並傳遞給卡羅爾（Carol）和艾瑪（Emma）。

Go ahead, Kate.

繼續吧，凱特。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Irene.

謝謝，艾琳。

As I said back in April at our 1Q results, we're aiming to deliver $2 billion, and I said then, I'd like to exceed it, I'd like to be able to do it quicker.

正如我在 4 月在第一季業績中所說的那樣，我們的目標是實現 20 億美元，當時我說，我想超越它，我希望能夠更快地做到這一點。

So since April, as you'd imagine, we've been in action right across the company in every business, in every function, underpinning that.

因此，正如您想像的那樣，自 4 月以來，我們一直在整個公司的每項業務、每項職能中採取行動，以支撐這一目標。

So the three things that are on my mind.

所以我想到的三件事。

One, make sure that $2 billion is underpinned.

第一，確保 20 億美元得到支持。

Second, can we accelerate it?

第二，我們能加速嗎？

Can we deliver more?

我們可以提供更多嗎？

And then third, how do we make those savings sustainable.

第三，我們如何使這些節省可持續。

So that's where we've been over the last three months.

這就是我們過去三個月的情況。

And as you've seen today, we've now been able to get clear that we can deliver $0.5 billion of that cash cost saving in 2025.

正如您今天所看到的，我們現在已經能夠明確表示，我們可以在 2025 年節省 5 億美元的現金成本。

And we'll continue to update as we go.

我們將繼續更新。

But back to where I was in April, I would hope we can do better in terms of the delivery, but also the pace.

但回到四月的情況，我希望我們能夠在交付和節奏方面做得更好。

Just in terms of the unit production cost, that's just portfolio mix at the moment.

就單位生產成本而言，目前這只是一個投資組合。

We're on track for the sort of around $6 that we said we would be by the middle of 2025.

我們預計在 2025 年中期實現約 6 美元的目標。

Great.

偉大的。

And Emma, anything to add on cost, please?

艾瑪，請問費用還有什麼需要補充的嗎？

Yes, I think just amplify, Kate, your point is the costs are owned by the businesses.

是的，我想放大一下，凱特，你的觀點是成本由企業負擔。

So we've run a process over the last few months and the costs are embedded in our near term plan for both 2024 and 2025, as well as that will flow into 2026.

因此，我們在過去幾個月中運行了一個流程，並將成本納入我們 2024 年和 2025 年的近期計劃中，並將流入 2026 年。

The majority of the costs are embedded right down into the business units.

大部分成本都直接嵌入業務部門。

And there's some that we're still holding centrally.

還有一些我們仍然集中持有。

Murray, you talked about four buckets for cost portfolio, we're always churning the bottom of our portfolio tail end.

莫瑞，您談到了成本投資組合的四個部分，我們總是在攪拌投資組合尾部的底部。

You talked about digital, just a couple of examples on digital on cost.

您談到了數位化，僅舉了幾個有關數位化成本的例子。

In my part of the business, we are, for example, rolling out self-serve checkout at our retail convenience site.

例如，在我負責的業務領域，我們正在零售便利網站推出自助結帳服務。

That is a saving on labor cost, which increases inflates every year.

這是勞動成本的節省，而勞動成本每年都會增加。

So that's a sustained saving.

所以這是一個持續的儲蓄。

Things like our on the digital side, we have multiple portals on B2B self-serve, which we're consolidating the back end so that you can still see a different front.

就像我們在數位方面一樣，我們在 B2B 自助服務方面擁有多個門戶，我們正在整合後端，以便您仍然可以看到不同的前端。

And that also will deliver a cost saving as well as the ability to self-serve on digital.

這也將帶來成本節約以及數位自助服務的能力。

And then we're also in action, you talked about in procurement as a potential saving Murray earlier, and some of the things we're in action on there is in the US, for example, we are joining together our TA, AMPM, Travel Centers of America, AMPM, as well as our Thorntons merchandising.

然後我們也在採取行動，您之前在採購方面談到了默里的潛在節省，我們正在美國採取行動的一些事情，例如，我們正在將我們的 TA、AMPM、美國旅遊中心、AMPM 以及我們的Thorntons 商品。

And now we have a bit more scale to go to market.

現在我們有更大的規模來進入市場。

So just some examples of how we're embedding and write down in the details on the cost side.

這只是我們如何嵌入並記錄成本方面細節的一些範例。

Fantastic, thanks Emma.

太棒了，謝謝艾瑪。

And then on the TGs, so last year we made around $1 billion of EBITDA.

然後是 TG，去年我們的 EBITDA 約為 10 億美元。

For the first half of this year we made about $0.5 billion.

今年上半年我們賺了大約 5 億美元。

We've of course announced the acquisition of Bunge as well, which we expect to close in the fourth quarter.

當然，我們也宣布了對 Bunge 的收購，預計將在第四季完成。

If you just pretend the run rate is the same, $500 million, 1H, $500 million,

如果你假裝運行率是一樣的，5億美元，1H，5億美元，

2H, and you add Bunge into the mix, you're probably at almost $2 billion of EBITDA as a starting point headed into 2025.

2H，如果將 Bunge 加入其中，作為進入 2025 年的起點，您的 EBITDA 可能接近 20 億美元。

And then we remain on track.

然後我們就繼續走在正軌上。

We remain on track to grow into the three to four range.

我們仍有望成長為三到四家的範圍。

We feel very comfortable with that.

我們對此感到非常滿意。

Emma, maybe you can talk about what we see in convenience and electrification, and Carol can talk about bio as well, please.

艾瑪，也許你可以談談我們在便利性和電氣化方面看到的東西，卡羅爾也可以談談生物。

Go for it, Emma.

加油吧，艾瑪。

Sure, I'll kick off.

當然，我會開始。

So, in terms of convenience and electrification, we're well on track to deliver around $1.5 billion from convenience and electrification together.

因此，就便利性和電氣化而言，我們有望透過便利性和電氣化共同創造約 15 億美元的收入。

Electric EV charging lost with a loss of $0.3 billion, so $300 million last year.

電動車充電損失 3 億美元，去年為 3 億美元。

And we're talking about breaking even, so that will contribute to the $1.5 billion.

我們正在談論盈虧平衡，因此這將貢獻 15 億美元。

And in convenience, we're well on track.

就便利性而言，我們已經步入正軌。

So we did $0.5 billion this year already, first half.

所以今年上半年我們已經賺了 5 億美元。

That's up $200 million, first half versus first half.

與上半年相比，這一數字增加了 2 億美元。

And we're in action both on the revenue line as well as on the cost line.

我們在收入線和成本線上都採取了行動。

So on the revenue line just a few examples, our like for like sales are up and our store conversions.

因此，在收入線上，僅舉幾個例子，我們的同類銷售額上升了，我們的商店轉換率也上升了。

So when we convert stores to strategic convenience sites, which you'll see we've now increased another 50 over this recent reporting period.

因此，當我們將商店轉變為策略性便利網站時，您會發現我們在最近的報告期間內又增加了 50 家商店。

And when we increase our strategic convenience stores, we see double-digit increase in sales, just from those conversions.

當我們增加策略性便利商店時，僅透過這些轉化，我們就看到銷售額出現兩位數的成長。

And at the same time, we're working on our revenue line on the base business.

同時，我們正在努力改善基礎業務的收入線。

So for example, we're constantly innovating our offers.

例如，我們不斷創新我們的產品。

We launched pizza in Thorntons, that saw a 13% uplift in sales in the first month.

我們在 Thorntons 推出了披薩，第一個月的銷售額就成長了 13%。

We also launched just this year and it was launched, we launched 13 SKU stock keeping units on water, which is one of the top selling beverages for anybody who stops on the road, as well as sweet sort of jellies, candies.

我們今年也推出了水，我們推出了 13 個 SKU 的庫存單位，對於任何在路上停下來的人來說，這是最暢銷的飲料之一，還有甜果凍、糖果。

They're called epic brands.

他們被稱為史詩品牌。

Why do I say that?

我為什麼這麼說呢？

Because actually consumers are under pressure and consumers under pressure want a better value product and we actually make a better margin from these private labels.

因為實際上消費者面臨壓力，而處於壓力下的消費者想要更有價值的產品，而我們實際上從這些自有品牌中獲得了更好的利潤。

So where we go directly to suppliers, conceive of a range of the top-selling products, it works for us, higher profit and it works for the consumer because it's more value.

因此，當我們直接與供應商聯繫時，構思一系列最暢銷的產品，這對我們有利，利潤更高，對消費者也有利，因為它更有價值。

So I think as I put those together, we're now in the top five of convenience stores in the USA and our program in Europe is well underpinned with the pipeline of conversion, big conversions still happening in Poland.

因此，我認為，將這些放在一起，我們現在已躋身美國便利商店前五名，而我們在歐洲的計劃則得到了轉型管道的良好支持，波蘭仍在進行大規模轉型。

Here in the UK we continue to convert at the margin and then big program in Germany.

在英國，我們繼續進行邊際轉換，然後在德國進行大型計畫。

Thanks, Emma.

謝謝，艾瑪。

EV?

電動車？

EV, I think you said we break even and we feel comfortable with that right now.

EV，我想你說過我們收支平衡，我們現在對此感到滿意。

Everything moving in the right direction.

一切都在朝著正確的方向發展。

Happy to come back to that after if we like.

如果我們願意的話，很高興之後再回來。

And then Carol.

然後是卡羅爾。

Okay.

好的。

So I mean, I think first thing I'd say is on bio, because you did mention bio, so we recognize obviously globally in most markets is weaker.

所以我的意思是，我想我首先要說的是生物，因為你確實提到了生物，所以我們顯然認識到全球大多數市場都較弱。

And I'll come to Arkea shortly, because that's one market where it isn't.

我很快就會來到Arkea，因為那是一個不存在的市場。

But I would say on the bio side, we have seen lower transport tickets in Europe.

但我想說，在生物方面，我們看到歐洲的交通票價較低。

We have also seen short-term oversupply.

我們也看到了短期的供應過剩。

We've also seen some reduction in mandates, for example, Sweden, Finland.

我們也看到授權減少，例如瑞典、芬蘭。

So there is some regulatory uncertainty which has contributed to that.

因此，存在一些監管不確定性導致了這種情況。

But we do also forecast that we're going to see margins improving through the end of 2025 and into 2026.

但我們也預測，到 2025 年底和 2026 年，利潤率將會有所改善。

That says we see mandates increasing in key markets like Germany and Netherlands and that's also as potentially there might be import duties placed onto biodiesel into Europe and also bioenergy is still needed to decarbonize the hard to abate sectors, such as transport.

這就是說，我們看到德國和荷蘭等關鍵市場的強制要求增加，而且歐洲可能會對生物柴油徵收進口關稅，而且仍然需要生物能源來使運輸等難以減少的產業脫碳。

I think Emma can talk to the business side of that more so.

我認為艾瑪更可以從商業角度來談論這一點。

But I'd say it's a recognition, but we do still see positive margins for the future.

但我想說這是一種認可，但我們仍然看到未來的正面利潤。

In our Arkea, I’d say this is a slightly different story D3 RINs are actually holding up very well at the moment.

在我們的 Arkea，我想說這是一個略有不同的故事，D3 RIN 目前實際上表現得很好。

It's a combination of high mandates, it's a combination of low availability around cellulosic ethanol, it's also that the waiver credit there has been discontinued.

這是高要求的結合，是纖維素乙醇的低可用性的結合，而且那裡的豁免信貸已經終止。

So that's a positive pricing market, averaged about 3.19 in Q2.

所以這是一個積極的定價市場，第二季的平均價格約為 3.19。

So why are we confident around Arkea?

那為什麼我們對 Arkea 充滿信心呢？

Well we're confident because we're also seeing increase in demand in the transportation market.

我們很有信心，因為我們也看到運輸市場的需求增加。

So it's up 14% first half of this year versus last year and we also see continuing growth as people use biogas to decarbonize, but we're also confident on the supply side.

因此，今年上半年比去年增長了 14%，而且隨著人們使用沼氣脫碳，我們也看到了持續成長，但我們對供應方面也充滿信心。

So we brought online four plants this first half of the year.

因此，我們在今年上半年上線了四家工廠。

So that's roughly around [4 million] mmBtu’s of high margin RNG.

因此，這大約是高利潤 RNG 的 [400 萬] mmBtu。

And we've got two more in commissioning at the moment due to start up this week and a further two undergoing final commissioning due to start up in August.

目前，我們還有兩個正在進行調試，將於本週啟動，另外兩個正在進行最終調試，將於八月啟動。

So we're making progress in bringing those plants up online.

因此，我們在將這些工廠上線方面取得了進展。

And just as a reminder, if Henry Hub were $3 an mmBtu, which I know is probably a little bit optimistic at the moment, but if it were and we were looking at placing our RNG into the transport market with RINs at $3, we can actually sell that RNG for 10 times more the value of Henry Hub.

提醒一下，如果 Henry Hub 的價格為每 mmBtu 3 美元，我知道目前可能有點樂觀，但如果是這樣，並且我們正在考慮將我們的 RNG 投入到 RIN 價格為 3 美元的運輸市場，我們可以實際上， RNG 的售價是Henry Hub 價值的10 倍。

So that just gives you a sense still of the value in that portfolio.

所以這只是讓你仍然感受到該投資組合的價值。

Now also what I would say is, we've learned a lot, commissioning times are reducing.

現在我想說的是，我們學到了很多東西，調試時間正在減少。

Madora that took us around seven weeks, we're now at around 7 to 10 days.

Madora 花了我們大約七週的時間，現在大約需要 7 到 10 天。

So we are improving and getting those plants up and running more quickly.

因此，我們正在改進並讓這些工廠更快地啟動和運行。

That's not to say that there are some headwinds, we've seen that across the market permitting interconnect delays, but we're confident about that delivery and we're still focused on delivering $800 million to $1 billion by 2030 -- Arkea.

這並不是說存在一些阻力，我們已經看到整個市場允許互連延遲，但我們對交付充滿信心，並且我們仍然專注於到 2030 年交付 8 億至 10 億美元——Arkea。

Thanks, Carol.

謝謝，卡羅爾。

Thanks, Emma.

謝謝，艾瑪。

So we feel confident, Irene.

所以我們充滿信心，艾琳。

One more question in the room then we'll go out to the phone lines.

房間裡還有一個問題，然後我們就去打電話。

Biraj.

比拉吉。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Biraj Borkhataria, RBC.

比拉傑‧博哈塔里亞 (Biraj Borkhataria)，加拿大皇家銀行。

I'm the first one just on the balance sheet.

我是資產負債表上的第一個。

The market's been concerned about your your debt levels at a recent quarters?

市場最近幾季一直關注您的債務水平？

And when I start to look at the figures, you've got net interest at 80% of your dividend, your lease payments have gone up 40% over the last couple of years.

當我開始查看這些數字時，您的淨利息為股息的 80%，您的租賃付款在過去幾年中增加了 40%。

And yes, I understand the push on EBITDA growth, but there are real reasons why the EBITDA growth is not translating to free cash free cash flow bottom line.

是的，我理解 EBITDA 成長的推動力，但 EBITDA 成長並沒有轉化為自由現金流底線是有真正原因的。

So just getting back to the 80% surplus payout, can you just help me understand why it still makes sense to it feels quite restrictive is my question and rather than putting more cash to the balance sheet.

因此，回到 80% 的盈餘支付，您能否幫助我理解為什麼它仍然有意義，因為我的問題是感覺相當有限，而不是在資產負債表上投入更多現金。

So that's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

And then the second question is just on some employee share options and dilution that looks like there's a large amount to that come due in the first quarter of 2025 from plans put in place a few years ago in normal years, you have a separate buyback to offset that dilution.

第二個問題只是關於一些員工股票選擇權和稀釋，看起來在正常年份幾年前實施的計劃中，有很大一部分是在 2025 年第一季到期的，你有單獨的回購抵消這種稀釋。

But it looks like a very large number and obviously, you don't know exactly what's going to come through.

但它看起來是一個非常大的數字，顯然，你不知道會發生什麼事。

So can you help me understand whether you intend to offset the amount in 2025?

那麼您能否幫我了解一下您是否打算在 2025 年抵銷這筆金額？

Or I think last quarter you introduced languishing overtime.

或者我認為上個季度你引入了疲軟的加班時間。

So what exactly does over time mean?

那麼隨著時間的推移究竟意味著什麼呢？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, great key term.

是的，很棒的關鍵術語。

I think on the balance sheet, I'll start and pass to Kate and she can answer the question on all of our options.

我認為在資產負債表上，我將開始並傳遞給凱特，她可以回答有關我們所有選擇的問題。

And I think it's important to remember that we're focused on credit rating.

我認為重要的是要記住我們專注於信用評級。

We're not necessarily slavishly focused on net debt.

我們不一定一味地關注淨債務。

And if you think about where our credit rating is and where our spreads are, we're A plus and A plus with Fitch and Moody's.

如果你考慮我們的信用評級和利差，你會發現我們在惠譽和穆迪的評級中都是 A+ 和 A+。

So we're very strong.

所以我們非常強大。

We're in very strong position and we don't plan on moving to AA, it gives us the flexibility we need for trading.

我們處於非常有利的地位，我們不打算轉向 AA，它為我們提供了交易所需的靈活性。

And that gives us lots of firepower for what we want to do so and that's why we feel that we're comfortable with where we are.

這為我們想做的事情提供了充足的火力，這就是為什麼我們對自己所處的位置感到滿意。

We've come from a long way over the past.

我們已經走過了很長的路。

And it makes sense to be biased to share buybacks that we think create more value for shareholders, both through the buyback flywheel and the dividend.

我們認為股票回購可以透過回購飛輪和股利為股東創造更多價值，這是有道理的。

And that comes with that.

隨之而來的是。

Kate, anything to add and then on to the share -- on to employee schemes?

凱特，關於員工計劃，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Maybe just a couple of points.

也許只有幾點。

I think that the share buybacks are part and parcel of our sector-leading distributions and the shareholders that we talk to are very supportive of that component of the financial frame.

我認為股票回購是我們行業領先的分配的重要組成部分，與我們交談的股東非常支持財務框架的這一組成部分。

The balance sheet's in good shape.

資產負債表狀況良好。

We've made tremendous progress since 2020 with reducing it by $29 billion in terms of debt.

自 2020 年以來，我們取得了巨大進展，債務減少了 290 億美元。

So it's there and it's strong so that it can tolerate fluctuations.

所以它就在那裡，而且很堅固，可以承受波動。

So I think that's important alongside Murray's point, which is absolutely spot on with regard to financial resilience, where it being way more than just net debt.

因此，我認為這與默里的觀點很重要，默里的觀點在財務彈性方面絕對正確，而不僅僅是淨債務。

On the ESOP dilution, yes, we did decide to move to offsetting overtime and that is where we are going to be.

關於員工持股計畫稀釋，是的，我們確實決定轉向抵銷加班費，這就是我們要做的事情。

So a decent run rate last year, we offset $675 million of ESOP dilution through share buyback.

因此，去年的運行率不錯，我們透過股票回購抵消了 6.75 億美元的 ESOP 稀釋。

So we'll continue to step through that.

所以我們將繼續逐步解決這個問題。

With regard to next year, yes, there are some options out there.

至於明年，是的，有一些選擇。

I'm not going to predict at what point they start to be exercised, they have a six year life.

我不會預測他們什麼時候開始鍛煉，他們有六年的壽命。

So we will continue to offset that over time and we'll step through it and can give you a little bit more detail as we get into that.

因此，隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續抵消這一影響，我們將逐步解決這個問題，並在我們深入研究時為您提供更多細節。

Hard to predict, isn't it? -- great.

很難預測，不是嗎？ - 偉大的。

Thanks, Biraj.

謝謝，比拉傑。

Why don't we go to the phone and I'll start with Paul Cheng on the phone, please.

我們為什麼不去打電話，我先和 Paul Cheng 通電話。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

Two questions.

兩個問題。

I think the first one is okay.

我覺得第一個還可以。

You may have already saw it.

您可能已經看到了。

Just for OP&P, the OpEx -- the implied OpEx seems like it's a bit high.

就 OP&P 而言，OpEx——隱含的 OpEx 似乎有點高。

I think there's a higher exploration charge off, but in addition to that, is there anything else we should be aware and how much is the exploration charge off for the quarter?

我認為勘探費用較高，但除此之外，我們還應該注意什麼？

The second question maybe is for Murray.

第二個問題可能是針對穆雷的。

BPX, can you give us an idea then how is the second half activity level going to look like in the first half?

BPX，您能否給我們一個想法，那麼下半年的活動量與上半年的情況會是什麼樣子？

Second quarter is a good quarter.

第二季是一個不錯的季度。

It looks like it must be perming.

看來必須要燙髮了。

The production number is -- especially in the -- is much higher.

生產數量——尤其是——要高得多。

So you can comment on that.

所以你可以對此發表評論。

That would be great.

那太好了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Great, thanks Paul.

太好了，謝謝保羅。

I'll lead off with BPX and I'll hand back to Kate.

我將從 BPX 開始，然後交回給 Kate。

She might have answered most of your question already.

她可能已經回答了你的大部分問題。

On BPX, yes, the teams have made great progress there.

是的，在 BPX 上，團隊已經取得了巨大的進展。

I visited with them after our last set of results for a few days.

在我們得到最後一組結果後幾天，我拜訪了他們。

And you're right, we brought on the third central gathering facility in the first quarter, and we started to fill that up.

你是對的，我們在第一季建立了第三個中央收集設施，我們開始填充它。

That's why we see the strong growth in liquids.

這就是我們看到液體產品強勁成長的原因。

In the second quarter, they are now working on the last one, which is really a compressor station, which will lower line pressure, which will draw more resource out of the ground, and that should come online sometime middle of next year.

在第二季度，他們現在正在開發最後一個，這實際上是一個壓縮機站，這將降低管線壓力，從而從地下抽出更多資源，並且應該在明年年中的某個時候上線。

As far as activity set, generally we've described these in rig years.

就活動設置而言，我們通常以鑽孔機年份來描述這些活動。

The difficulty with that is they're drilling so fast that they're able to drill the same number of wells with half the rigs.

困難在於他們的鑽探速度如此之快，以至於他們能夠用一半的鑽機鑽出相同數量的井。

So they've just done incredible work on ranging well drilling and some TDS technology as well.

因此，他們剛剛在測距鑽井和一些 TDS 技術方面做了令人難以置信的工作。

It's hard to believe that they've been able to do that step change yet again.

很難相信他們能夠再次做出這樣的改變。

So, when you look at the rig count numbers that we provide with you, it's as if it's 2 times the rigs that existed two years ago if you measure it to that metric, given the productivity they've seen.

因此，當您查看我們向您提供的鑽機數量時，如果按照該指標進行​​衡量，考慮到他們所看到的生產力，它就好像是兩年前存在的鑽機數量的 2 倍。

Right now in the gas basins, obviously gas price is quite low.

目前在天然氣盆地，顯然天然氣價格相當低。

We've got tons of resource, 22 TcF of resource.

我們有大量的資源，22 TcF 的資源。

And we've just moved down to minimal drilling inside the Haynesville.

我們剛剛在海恩斯維爾內部進行了最小程度的鑽探。

So we're down to one rig in the Haynesville, just keeping going.

所以我們在海恩斯維爾只有一台鑽孔機，繼續前進。

But we continue to focus on the oily side.

但我們繼續關注油性方面。

So we'll continue to drill out the Permian and gradually fill that system up entirely.

因此，我們將繼續鑽探二疊紀並逐漸完全填滿這個系統。

We'll probably hit peak production for liquids in the Permian around 2027, based on the last analysis I did.

根據我上次的分析，二疊紀的液體產量可能會在 2027 年左右達到高峰。

And the other very interesting thing that we talked about while I was there is, they're rethinking the Eagle Ford.

我在那裡時我們談論的另一件非常有趣的事情是，他們正在重新考慮 Eagle Ford。

So we have 500 wells there that have been producing for about a decade.

我們在那裡有 500 口井，已經生產了大約十年。

They were fracked a decade ago.

十年前，它們就被水力壓裂了。

Obviously, fracking technology has moved on materially since then.

顯然，從那時起，水力壓裂技術已經取得了實質進展。

So they've gone in and done 50 re-fracks.

所以他們已經進行了 50 次重新壓裂。

And the returns on these things are unbelievable.

這些事情的回報是令人難以置信的。

With the new technology on the fracks, you're getting all kinds of liquid production coming out of them.

借助壓裂新技術，您可以從中生產出各種液體。

So we trialed 30.

所以我們嘗試了30個。

We now have 500 opportunities.

我們現在有500個機會。

The Gordon is working with them on to decide at what pace we fund those.

戈登正在與他們合作，決定我們以何種速度資助這些計畫。

And the last thing I'd say on the Eagle Ford is, they also started to down space, which is very counter to what you think of in some of these plays that maybe you don't down space, you're getting it through laterals.

關於鷹福特，我要說的最後一件事是，他們也開始縮小空間，這與你在某些比賽中的想法非常相反，也許你不會縮小空間，你會通過它側向。

But what they found is, the couple of downspacing wells they've drilled have delivered 3,700 barrels of oil a day, which is way above POPs, even what we're seeing in some of the Permian acreage.

但他們發現，他們鑽探的兩口縮小井每天產出了 3,700 桶石油，遠高於持久性有機污染物，甚至是我們在二疊紀一些地區看到的石油產量。

So the Eagle Ford is opening back up to us, and it's this mantra that we always have to think about with resources is, once you think you're done on recovery factor, have another go at technology and see what happens.

因此，鷹福特正在向我們重新開放，我們在資源方面始終必須考慮的口頭禪是，一旦你認為你已經完成了恢復因素，就再次嘗試技術，看看會發生什麼。

And that's what we're proving in the Eagle Ford.

這就是我們在 Eagle Ford 中證明的。

They used to talk about recovery factors of 7% to 10%.

他們曾經談論過 7% 到 10% 的恢復係數。

That might resonate with you for the Permian.

這可能會引起你對二疊紀的共鳴。

They're now talking 30% recovery factors in the Eagle Ford from these re-fracs and from the down spacing.

他們現在正在談論 Eagle Ford 中透過這些重複壓裂和下間距實現 30% 的恢復係數。

And of course, that's a question that will constantly challenge ourself in the Permian as well.

當然，這也是我們在二疊紀不斷挑戰的問題。

How can we completely change that?

我們要如何徹底改變這種狀況呢？

So what should you see?

那你該看到什麼？

You should see us continue to focus on liquids with liquids growth.

您應該會看到我們繼續關注液體增長的液體。

Gas production will decline with only one rig running in the Haynesville, but given where our prices are right now, that's fine.

如果海恩斯維爾只有一台鑽機運行，天然氣產量將會下降，但考慮到我們目前的價格，這很好。

We'll take our hedges through profit and we'll see what happens with gas prices as we move through 2025 and 2026.

我們將透過利潤進行對沖，我們將看看 2025 年和 2026 年天然氣價格會發生什麼變化。

Our sense is, it'll be more resilient, and if it's more resilient, we can lean in and we can produce an awful lot more natural gas.

我們的感覺是，它會更有彈性，如果它更有彈性，我們可以依靠它，我們可以生產更多的天然氣。

But we have tremendous flexibility in the portfolio, given all the resource we have there.

但鑑於我們擁有的所有資源，我們在產品組合方面擁有巨大的靈活性。

Kate, back to you then on OpEx.

凱特，然後回到你的營運支出。

Yes, So Paul, just a couple of quick points.

是的，保羅，我簡單說幾點。

So I think I kind of answered the point on unit production costs earlier.

所以我想我之前已經回答了單位生產成本的問題。

It's really just mix.

這真的只是混合。

The only thing I would add to that is, don't try and correlate that directly to what we're saying on cash costs because, obviously, there's a whole segment of costs that don't feed into the production cost numbers.

我唯一要補充的是，不要嘗試將其與我們所說的現金成本直接相關聯，因為顯然，有一整部分成本不計入生產成本數字。

So there's not a direct relationship between those and then EWOs, we have a EWO of about $100 million in the second quarter, which was largely related to the Gulf of Mexico.

因此，這些與當時的 EWO 之間沒有直接關係，我們第二季的 EWO 約為 1 億美元，這很大程度上與墨西哥灣有關。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, Kate.

謝謝你，凱特。

I'll take one more on the call, and then I'll come to the room, Michele Della Vigna at Goldman.

我會再接聽一通電話，然後我會來到高盛的 Michele Della Vigna 房間。

And really congratulations on the strong results and the industry-leading cash return to shareholders.

衷心祝賀您取得的強勁業績和業界領先的股東現金回報。

Two questions, if I may.

如果可以的話，有兩個問題。

The first one is on LNG.

第一個是液化天然氣。

You've run historically with more spot exposure than most of your peers, and you've monetized it through trading.

從歷史上看，您比大多數同行擁有更多的現貨敞口，並且您透過交易將其貨幣化。

I'm wondering with more and more supply coming on stream, especially potentially oversupplied market from '26, '27 whether you're looking for more brand linked long-term contracts.

我想知道隨著越來越多的供應即將投入使用，尤其是 26、27 年可能供應過剩的市場，您是否正在尋找更多與品牌相關的長期合約。

And if you can give us an idea of the split of your long-term exposure between spot and long term?

您能否告訴我們您的長期風險敞口在現貨和長期之間的劃分？

And then secondly, I wanted to come back to the two biorefineries that you've decided for the moment not to proceed with.

其次，我想回到你們暫時決定不繼續進行的兩個生物精煉廠。

It makes perfect sense in terms of capital reallocation following the BP Bunge acquisition.

就收購 BP Bunge 後的資本重新分配而言，這非常有意義。

But I was also wondering if there was anything that changed in your assumptions on policy or demand or cost of feedstock that influenced that decision.

但我也想知道您對政策、需求或原料成本的假設是否發生了任何變化，從而影響了這個決定。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Great.

偉大的。

Well, as Carol's on the room, she can have fun with with LNG a way you go, Carol?

好吧，既然卡羅爾在房間裡，她可以隨心所欲地玩液化天然氣，卡羅爾？

.

。

Thank you, Murray.

謝謝你，穆雷。

So I won't give you a percent of the Brent length.

所以我不會給你布蘭特原油長度的百分之一。

But what I would say is, we do buy on Henry Hub and Brent basis, and we do also sell on Henry Hub and Brent basis.

但我想說的是，我們確實以亨利港和布蘭特原油為基礎進行買入，我們也確實以亨利港和布蘭特原油為基礎進行銷售。

The way that we look at our portfolio is the first thing that we want to do is lock in the intrinsic margin then because we built a lot of optionality into our portfolio over time.

我們看待投資組合的方式是，我們要做的第一件事就是鎖定內在保證金，因為隨著時間的推移，我們在投資組合中建立了許多選擇性。

What we then look to do is trade and optimize around those flows, rewire cargoes into the optimal markets and highest pricing centers.

然後，我們要做的就是圍繞這些流量進行貿易和優化，將貨物重新運送到最佳市場和最高定價中心。

So as an example, around 50% of our supply is open for Asia and Atlantic cross basin optimization, and we expect that to grow to around two-thirds in 2025.

舉例來說，我們約 50% 的供應開放用於亞洲和大西洋跨流域優化，我們預計到 2025 年將增長到三分之二左右。

And we also use tools continuously on a daily basis to actually look at those rewiring opportunities and they take price feeds in.

我們也每天不斷地使用工具來實際觀察這些重新佈線的機會，並接受價格回饋。

So we're looking at should we be flexing volumes?

所以我們正在考慮是否應該調整交易量？

Should we be redirecting supply into a particular market because of a price change or an OP movement.

我們是否應該因為價格變動或OP變動而將供應重新導向到特定市場？

So we're constantly looking at that portfolio in order to maximize the value for BP.

因此，我們不斷關注該投資組合，以便最大限度地提高 BP 的價值。

In terms of volumes, so we had around 23 million tonnes last year, which was up 20% versus 2022.

就產量而言，去年我們的產量約為 2,300 萬噸，比 2022 年增加了 20%。

On top of that, we had 10 million tonnes, around 10 million tonnes of what we would call short term and spot contracts.

最重要的是，我們還有 1000 萬噸，大約 1000 萬噸我們稱之為短期和現貨合約。

But for us, the short term, it's like a three to five year period.

但對我們來說，短期來說，就像三到五年。

So it's not all spot.

所以這並不是全部。

But if you think if you're looking for a split last year, it was 23 long term and 10 short to medium term.

但如果你想一想，如果你去年尋求拆分，那麼你會發現，有 23 個長期項目和 10 個中短期項目。

And in terms of long-term contracts, just in April, we signed with [CoGas] who has a strategic relationship with us.

在長期合約方面，就在四月份，我們與與我們有策略關係的[CoGas]簽訂了合約。

We signed a further contract with them, which was 11 years in duration and up to 9.8 million tonnes supplying into them, which is in addition to a long-term contract we already had with him, which I think was 20 plus years.

我們與他們簽訂了另一份合同，為期 11 年，向他們供應最多 980 萬噸，這是我們與他簽訂的長期合同的補充，我認為該合同為期 20 多年。

So we are looking at long-term contracts.

所以我們正在考慮長期合約。

We also look at short-term market opportunities.

我們也關注短期市場機會。

And I think on the -- thank you, Carol.

我想——謝謝你，卡蘿。

Excellent.

出色的。

We are very different than the competition.

我們與競爭對手有很大不同。

We have a different viewpoint on this and we believe in flexibility.

我們對此有不同的觀點，我們相信靈活性。

On biorefining, maybe just a few things to say.

關於生物精煉，也許只有幾句話要說。

Over time, it's become clear that a lot of people are building biorefineries, whether it's through coprocessing or hydrocracking.

隨著時間的推移，越來越明顯的是，許多人正在建造生物煉油廠，無論是透過協同處理還是加氫裂解。

And that's not the part of the complex that will be short.

這並不是建築群中會很短的部分。

So you'll have lots of steel.

這樣你就會有很多鋼材。

We think we need up to three different plants that we build this decade, not have been sanctioned yet, so we still have to go through our sanction process.

我們認為我們需要在這十年內建造最多三個不同的工廠，但尚未獲得批准，因此我們仍然需要完成批准程序。

But we think that gives us enough capacity for what we want for our aviation fleet and for our trading fleet.

但我們認為這為我們的航空機隊和貿易機隊提供了足夠的能力。

We think instead that the value is in the upstream, and that's why we decided to reallocate scarce capital to the purchase of Bunge.

相反，我們認為價值在於上游，這就是為什麼我們決定重新分配稀缺資金來購買邦吉。

It offers us a lovely biofuels bioethanol position inside the domestic market, inside Brazil.

它為我們在巴西國內市場上的生物燃料生物乙醇提供了良好的地位。

It also offers tremendous opportunity to increase yields to drive better performance inside the plants, because it can be modernized significantly over time with very little investment.

它還提供了巨大的機會來提高產量，以提高工廠內部的績效，因為隨著時間的推移，它可以以很少的投資實現顯著的現代化。

And our scientists in San Diego, who we work with so closely have all kinds of different enzymes that they're thinking about that can increase yield and create different products out of it.

我們在聖地牙哥的科學家與我們密切合作，他們擁有各種不同的酶，他們正在考慮這些酶可以提高產量並從中創造出不同的產品。

And last, Carol has the opportunity to on-trade this out of Brazil, which is always historically where we've been selling and into the West Coast of the United States or Europe to optimize trading flows as well.

最後，卡羅爾有機會將其從巴西（歷史上一直是我們銷售的地方）轉移到美國西海岸或歐洲，以優化貿易流程。

So we think that, along with focusing on the upstream on things like Carinata with new seed that's where you apply your scarce capital, that's where the value will be.

因此，我們認為，除了專注於像 Carinata 這樣的上游項目和新種子，你可以運用稀缺資本，這就是價值所在。

And that's what's going to create long-term enduring value.

這就是創造長期持久價值的原因。

It's not about any changes in viewpoint on pricing, no change on viewpoint on mandates.

這不是關於定價觀點的任何變化，也不是關於授權觀點的任何變化。

It's simply the fact that so many plants have been built.

這只是事實，已經建造瞭如此多的工廠。

We can toll through them as opposed to constructing them ourselves, which is much more capitally efficient for shareholders.

我們可以透過它們而不是自己建造它們，這對股東來說資本效率更高。

So thanks for the question, Michele, and we'll come back here into the room and lead off with Lydia, please.

謝謝米歇爾提出的問題，我們將回到房間並由莉迪亞開始。

Please Yes, thank you.

請 是的，謝謝。

And it's Lydia Rainforth from Barclays.

我是巴克萊銀行的莉迪亞‧雷恩福斯。

And hopefully you'll forget a direct question, Marie, but the idea of being simpler, more focused, higher value, I just how focused are you really on that Drive to '25.

希望你會忘記一個直接的問題，瑪麗，但更簡單、更專注、更高價值的想法，我只是你對「25 歲生日」的關注度有多高。

And Paul, the reason I ask things like Bungie, there is an opportunity cost to doing that.

保羅，我之所以問 Bungie 這樣的問題，是因為這樣做是有機會成本的。

You could have taken down that any bank or Bunga TA to incorporate everything else today.

今天你可以把任何一家銀行或 Bunga TA 拿下來，把其他一切都合併起來。

So actually, how focused is it really on that charge '25?

那麼實際上，它對「25」這項指控的關注程度如何？

And then secondly, on the EBITDA numbers for 2025.

其次是 2025 年 EBITDA 資料。

I know you flagged the kind of price potential price impacts.

我知道您標記了潛在的價格影響。

If we were indexing for Kevin environment, what would that mean for cash returns at this stage?

如果我們為凱文環境建立索引，這對現階段的現金回報意味著什麼？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

I'll ask Kate to answer the cash question.

我會請凱特回答現金問題。

I think it's a relatively straightforward question.

我認為這是一個相對簡單的問題。

On simpler and focus, look, when we laid out six months ago when I became CEO, we laid out six priorities.

關於更簡單和更專注，你看，六個月前，當我成為執行長時，我們制定了六個優先事項。

Obviously, safety, obviously, drive to 2025 are big parts of that, including the cost agenda that Kate talked about earlier.

顯然，安全、顯然、到 2025 年的努力是其中的重要組成部分，包括凱特之前談到的成本議程。

But what we said is, we really now need to focus our efforts and focusing on the things that we're going to build this decade that will set the shape for 2030, and that's what we're focused on.

但我們所說的是，我們現在確實需要集中精力，專注於我們將在這十年中建造的事情，這些事情將為 2030 年奠定基礎，這就是我們所關注的重點。

And so you've heard us talk about focusing inside Emma's business and EV, we're focused on four core markets for EV, China where we're number one, Germany number one, UK number one or two and building out the West Coast of the US right now.

所以你已經聽到我們談論專注於艾瑪的業務和電動車，我們專注於電動車的四個核心市場，中國第一，德國第一，英國第一或第二，並建立西海岸現在的美國。

So we're very, very focused in EV now than we've had over the past couple of years.

因此，與過去幾年相比，我們現在非常非常關注電動車。

In biofuels, focusing down the number of plants we're pursuing and there is tremendous countercyclical pricing opportunity with Bunge to create real long-term flows like we have in Arkea, that's the benefit of these renewable oilfield or gas fields.

在生物燃料方面，重點關注我們正在追求的工廠數量，邦吉有巨大的反週期定價機會，可以像我們在阿科亞那樣創造真正的長期流量，這就是這些可再生油田或天然氣田的好處。

They've got long, long flow and long, long RP associated with them, which is quite valuable.

他們有很長很長的流量和很長很長的RP，這是非常有價值的。

And we said today hydrogen, we're focusing hydrogen down.

我們今天談到氫，我們將重點放在氫上。

We'd chase 30 different opportunities in the past.

過去我們會追逐 30 個不同的機會。

We're now thinking about what can we actually construct and get going and that's where we focused it down where we think we'll sanction around five to 10 and build five to 10 this decade with the first two being in Castellon in Spain building green electrolyzer at Castellon that will help us make SAF in Castellon and decrease the carbon intensity of the refinery and the same in Lingen.

我們現在正在考慮我們可以實際建造和開始什麼，這就是我們的重點，我們認為我們將在這十年內批准大約5 到10 個並建造5 到10 個，其中前兩個是在西班牙的卡斯特利翁建造綠色建築卡斯特利翁的電解裝置將幫助我們在卡斯特利翁生產 SAF 並降低煉油廠的碳強度，林根的情況也是如此。

Castellon with our partner, Ibedrola, Lingen, it's 100% owned.

卡斯特利翁 (Castellon) 與我們的合作夥伴林根 (Lingen) 的伊貝德羅拉 (Ibedrola) 擁有 100% 的股權。

It will create 100 megawatts of green hydrogen to go into local, both for SAF and local demand.

它將產生 100 兆瓦的綠氫並進入當地，以滿足 SAF 和當地的需求。

And of course, the IPCEI funding that's coming from the European market for these things makes these very attractive with high returns.

當然，來自歐洲市場的 IPCEI 資金為這些產品提供了非常有吸引力的高回報。

So I think Lydia, geographic focus is concentrating and concentrating and concentrating.

所以我認為莉迪亞，地理焦點是集中、集中、集中。

You'll see more of that.

你會看到更多這樣的事。

So we're concentrating down to fewer markets that are aligned with the movement that we're taking as moving from an IOC to IEC.

因此，我們將注意力集中在較少的市場上，這些市場與我們從 IOC 轉向 IEC 的運動一致。

And we're picking those very best markets with the very best opportunities that give us integrated trading value or optionality outside it.

我們正在選擇那些擁有最佳機會的最佳市場，這些市場為我們提供了綜合交易價值或外部選擇權。

So I feel as if we are concentrating and I'd invite you each quarter to ask that as you see the announcements we make and watch how we concentrate.

因此，我覺得我們正在集中精力，每個季度我都會邀請您在看到我們發布的公告並觀察我們如何集中註意力時提出這個問題。

I won't preannounce any other moves.

我不會預先宣布任何其他舉措。

Kate over to you.

凱特交給你了。

Certainly feels like we're focused internally -- say that.

當然感覺我們專注於內在——這麼說吧。

So it's probably a fair assessment.

所以這可能是個公平的評估。

If you just look at the impact on EBITDA, a typical proportion of that will feed into cash flow, right?

如果你只看對 EBITDA 的影響，其中典型的比例將轉化為現金流，對吧？

Our cash conversion has been improving quarter-on-quarter for the last four quarters, but I think that's as good a guide as we can give you.

在過去的四個季度中，我們的現金轉換率一直在逐季度改善，但我認為這是我們可以為您提供的最好的指導。

In terms of what your next question might be in terms of -- so what does that do for the 14.

至於你的下一個問題可能是什麼——那麼這對 14 有何作用。

We're next going to update on February '25.

我們下次更新將於 2 月 25 日進行。

So we've moved to a cadence where we just update twice a year with regard to share buyback, we've preannounced all the way through to February '25.

因此，我們已經採取了每年更新兩次有關股票回購的節奏，我們一直預先宣佈到 2 月 25 日。

And as a Board, we'll take into consideration facts and circumstances at that time, but anchor on the fact that we've said 80% at least 80% of surplus to buybacks.

作為董事會，我們將考慮當時的事實和情況，但要以我們已經說過的 80% 至少 80% 的盈餘用於回購這一事實為基礎。

Thank you, Lydia.

謝謝你，莉迪亞。

Next question in the room.

房間裡的下一個問題。

Peter?

彼得？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Peter Low from Redburn Atlantic.

來自 Redburn Atlantic 的 Peter Low。

Yes, the first was just on the Paleogene following kind of the sanction of Kaskida, would you look to farm down your position there at some point?

是的，第一個是在古近紀，在 Kaskida 的製裁之後，你會考慮在某個時候降低你在那裡的位置嗎？

And what will be the optimum time in the development to do that?

開發的最佳時間是什麼時候？

And the second was just on oil production and operations, just on the results.

第二個只是關於石油生產和運營，只是關於結果。

I think you mentioned again that there were some price lag effects in the GoM and the UAE are you able to just quantify the approximate impact of that in the quarter?

我想您再次提到，墨西哥灣和阿聯酋存在一些價格滯後效應，您能否量化本季的大致影響？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Kate, do you want to do price lag and then I'll do a Paleogene.

凱特，你想做價格滯後，然後我會做古近紀。

Yes.

是的。

I think it was in the trading statement.

我認為這是在交易聲明中。

I think we quantified it as between $100 million and $200 million.

我認為我們將其量化為 1 億至 2 億美元之間。

Don't think of price lag impact as a direct correlation to things like working capital, which does reverse.

不要將價格滯後影響視為與營運資金等因素直接相關，這確實會逆轉。

So price lag and the degree to which it reverses in subsequent quarters depends on the pattern of prices in that quarter and also the two areas where we get the price lag in the US and in the UAE.

因此，價格滯後及其在隨後幾季逆轉的程度取決於該季度的價格模式以及我們在美國和阿聯酋出現價格滯後的兩個地區。

And the outcome that you saw is a combination of fact there was some reversal from the first quarter, but also in the first quarter, we had a read-through from the price lag impact in the fourth quarter of last year.

您看到的結果是事實的結合，與第一季相比出現了一些逆轉，而且在第一季度，我們對去年第四季度的價格滯後影響進行了通讀。

On Paleogene, if you'll allow me to wax eloquent about the Paleogene for a minute. 10 billion barrels of discovered resource in the basin, that's now been highly developed by other companies.

關於古近紀，請容許我對古近紀進行一番雄辯的闡述。該盆地已發現 100 億桶資源，現已被其他公司高度開發。

It's time for us to catch up with that.

我們是時候趕上這個了。

We've used an industry standard solution for Kaskida, it will produce 80 kbd.

我們為 Kaskida 使用了行業標準解決方案，它將產生 80 kbd。

It will be less than $5 billion.

它將不到 50 億美元。

It will drill six wells in the East bump.

它將在東隆起鑽六口井。

That's all that we're putting into that sanction case, delivering at least 275 million barrels.

這就是我們在製裁案件中投入的全部資金，至少交付了 2.75 億桶。

When I listen to -- team, we might do quite a bit better than that.

當我聽團隊的聲音時，我們可能會做得更好。

The reason we might do quite a bit better than that is, we have 1,000 feet of pay and the average across the rest of the Paleogene is 500 feet of pay.

我們可能做得比這更好的原因是，我們有 1,000 英尺的工資，而古近紀其他地區的平均工資是 500 英尺。

So it's an enormous, enormous column of oil.

所以這是一個非常非常巨大的油柱。

And we'll be doing a seven frac completion inside those.

我們將在其中進行七次壓裂完井。

So let's see if we get 2.75 or something much higher over time.

那麼讓我們看看隨著時間的推移我們是否會得到 2.75 或更高的值。

It will be hopefully followed by Tiber, 12 months later, mid next year, we think we'll be sanctioning Tiber.

希望 Tiber 緊隨其後，12 個月後，即明年中期，我們認為我們將制裁 Tiber。

It will pretty much be a photocopy of Kaskida as well for capital productivity.

對於資本生產力來說，這幾乎是卡斯基達的複製品。

And at the same time, we're doing that, we'll be appraising the West bump at Kaskida.

同時，我們正在這樣做，我們將評估卡斯基達的西部凹凸。

And hopefully, that will just tie back and flow into East Kaskida over time.

希望隨著時間的推移，這將回歸並流入東卡斯基達。

And we've got a couple of exploration wells to the East and West of Kaskida and some more stuff near Guadalupe and Tiber as well.

我們在卡斯基達東部和西部有幾口勘探井，在瓜達盧佩和台伯河附近還有一些勘探井。

So it's a very, very, very strong resource base.

所以這是一個非常非常強大的資源基礎。

We've got some derisking to do with appraisal wells and exploration wells that are very sensible to do, given the high-quality seismic that we've shot.

考慮到我們拍攝到的高品質地震數據，我們對評估井和勘探井進行了一些降低風險的工作，這是非常明智的。

And obviously, to your point, Peter, we have a 100% working interest there.

顯然，彼得，就你的觀點而言，我們在那裡擁有 100% 的工作權益。

I think for now, we're going to start Kaskida, get it going.

我想現在我們要啟動 Kaskida，讓它繼續下去。

We will appraise these wells.

我們將對這些井進行評估。

We'll drill the exploration well, see what we have.

我們將進行勘探井，看看我們有什麼。

And in probably 12 to 18 months' time ask me that question again.

大概 12 到 18 個月後再次問我這個問題。

And I'll think about how much of the resource we've appraised and got under our thumb to think about what we do.

我會考慮我們評估了多少資源並掌握了多少資源來思考我們的工作。

Do we bring in a partner or not.

我們是否引進合作夥伴？

Kaskida alone will be a 5% increase in operating cash flow when it comes in at a group level, 5% alone, and Tiber will follow that as well.

當它進入集團層級時，僅 Kaskida 一家公司的營運現金流就將增加 5%，單獨增加 5%，Tiber 也將緊隨其後。

So it's will be an interesting choice to ask me 12 or 18 months away.

因此，在 12 或 18 個月後問我將是一個有趣的選擇。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Did everybody like the Kaskida pitch?

大家都喜歡卡斯基達球場嗎？

Is that okay?

可以嗎？

Sorry for waxing eloquent, those of you on the web.

抱歉，你們這些在網路上的人言辭激烈。

Next question to the web and then we'll come back to the room, Roger Read, please.

下一個問題將在網路上提出，然後我們將回到房間，羅傑·里德，請。

Hey, Roger, can you hear us.

嘿，羅傑，你聽得到我們說話嗎？

Can you hear me.

你聽得到我嗎。

Yes, go for it Roger.

是的，去吧，羅傑。

Can you all hear me now?

現在大家聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes, I can hear you, Roger.

是的，我聽得到你的聲音，羅傑。

Okay.

好的。

Sorry, starting with my headset.

抱歉，從我的耳機開始。

So apologies for the speaker here.

所以在這裡向演講者道歉。

If it creates the problem from, can we just take a quick ride down the political aisle.

如果它造成了問題，我們可以快速走上政治通道嗎？

You just had an election and a change in government in the UK.

英國剛剛舉行了選舉和政府更迭。

We've got an election coming up in the US.

美國即將舉行選舉。

Anything in particular you're seeing locally or looking at over here in the US that we should be thinking about.

我們應該考慮您在當地看到的或在美國這裡看到的任何特別的東西。

But I think from my hope, my hope, Roger, from all these elections is we can speed up the pace and moving forward, whether that be in the oil and gas space or in the transmission space and permitting grid connections build-outs have been an incredible drag no matter what geography you sit inside in the West, the East is different that's very fast in the East.

但我認為，從我的希望，我的希望，羅傑，從所有這些選舉中，我們可以加快步伐並向前邁進，無論是在石油和天然氣領域還是在輸電領域，並允許電網連接建設已經成為可能。

But in the West, whether that's Europe, the UK or the United States.

但在西方，無論是歐洲、英國或美國。

I'm hopeful that whoever comes in in the elections can help us with that because it's a definite drag on returns and cash flow for the corporations.

我希望無論誰參加選舉都能幫助我們解決這個問題，因為這肯定會拖累公司的回報和現金流。

And I'm very much looking forward to seeing the pace of that pick up some.

我非常期待看到這一進程加快。

And as you know, we're happy we're happy to work, which with whichever governments come in and many nations, we've been around for 115 years, working with and working with all sides, all sides and all kinds of countries.

如你所知，我們很高興我們很高興合作，無論與哪個政府和許多國家合作，我們已經存在了 115 年，與各方、各方和各種國家合作。

So as long as you stay aligned with the country and you're paying your taxes, you're investing in your people, you're developing research and you're a good corporate citizen.

因此，只要你與國家保持一致，你在繳稅，你在對你的員工進行投資，你在進行研究，你就是一個優秀的企業公民。

I think we're happy to work with any political affiliation in the world.

我認為我們很高興與世界上任何政治派別合作。

Do you have a second question, Roger?

羅傑，你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes, I do.

是的，我願意。

As we think about and I don't mean this at all to criticize the cash returns you're doing now.

正如我們所思考的，我並不是想要批評你們現在所做的現金回報。

But as you've laid out, pretty good path here to greater cash flows as we go towards the end of the decade.

但正如您所指出的，隨著我們走向本世紀末，這裡有一條很好的途徑來實現更大的現金流。

What's the right way for us to think about what are some of the maybe stair-step events or other catalysts for what would make you confident to continue increasing cash payouts to shareholders on share repos, whichever.

我們思考哪些可能是階梯式事件或其他催化劑的正確方法是什麼，可以讓您有信心繼續增加股票回購中向股東支付的現金支出（以哪種方式為準）。

Yes.

是的。

I think if you think about our current financial frame and how we talk about it, we obviously have a buyback dividend mechanism that if you look backwards, it's enabled at least three 10% buybacks now.

我認為，如果你考慮我們目前的財務框架以及我們如何談論它，我們顯然有一個回購股息機制，如果你回顧過去，它現在至少啟用了三次 10% 的回購。

So that it's not guidance, it's not forward guidance, but it gives you a sense of how we think about these things.

因此，這不是指導，也不是前瞻性指導，但它讓您了解我們如何看待這些事情。

And then from an underlying basis, what you should continue to hear me say is that, we're aiming for 3% to 4% on underlying growth in, we call it EBITDA, but since CapEx is relatively flat, proceeds are flat.

然後從根本上看，你應該繼續聽到我說的是，我們的目標是 EBITDA 的基本成長 3% 到 4%，但由於資本支出相對平穩，收益也持平。

Working capital through cycle is relatively flat.

整個週期的營運資金相對穩定。

You should be thinking about 3% to 4% increase in cash flow as well moving forward.

您應該考慮未來現金流增加 3% 到 4%。

And that comes about from two things: one, the cost efficiency drive we've talked about, where we see $2 billion by the end of 2026 million.

這來自於兩件事：一是我們談到的成本效率驅動，我們預計到 2,026 百萬年底將達到 20 億美元。

Hopefully, we can go further.

希望我們能走得更遠。

We'll see.

我們拭目以待。

Time will tell.

時間會證明一切。

Certainly, given where technology is going these days, it gives me optimism.

當然，考慮到當今技術的發展方向，這讓我感到樂觀。

And second, construction.

第二，建設。

We are a construction company, and that's what we're doing is we're sanctioning a ton of construction projects.

我們是一家建築公司，我們正在做的就是批准大量的建築項目。

Six months ago, I told you that we have 32 projects that we need to sanction moving forward.

六個月前，我告訴你們，我們有 32 個專案需要批准才能繼續前進。

We've been through 12 of them.

我們已經經歷了其中的 12 個。

We sanctioned five of them.

我們制裁了其中五個。

We've said no thank you to seven.

我們已經對七說“不”，謝謝。

But those five, along with what we've done in Bunge, what Carol is doing in Arkea, et cetera, just shows this constant construction wave and we look for that construction wave to overcome base decline in the business and grow the overall cash flows for the business by 3% to 4% per annum moving forward.

但這五個項目，加上我們在Bunge 所做的事情、Carol 在Arkea 所做的事情等等，都表明了這種持續的建設浪潮，我們希望這種建設浪潮能夠克服業務基數下降並增加整體現金流未來業務每年增長 3% 至 4%。

So I think watch progress on construction.

所以我認為要關注建設進展。

And you can sure feel that -- the later part of the decade is really underpinned with a Paleogene.

你一定能感覺到──這十年的後半段確實以古近紀為基礎。

That feels pretty good right now to be that well underpinned.

現在感覺很好，有這麼好的基礎。

And we continue to do other interesting things in transition growth engines and unconventionals to drive forward the growth earlier than that.

我們繼續在轉型成長引擎和非常規方面做其他有趣的事情，以提前推動成長。

Thanks for the question, Roger.

謝謝你的提問，羅傑。

I'll go one more on the web before I come back to the room.

回到房間前我會再上網查一下。

Ryan Todd, please.

瑞恩·托德，拜託。

Great, thanks.

萬分感謝。

Maybe a couple of gas-related questions.

也許有一些與天然氣相關的問題。

I mean as we think about your global gas business, thanks for some of the -- Carol, thanks to some of the color you gave earlier on trading.

我的意思是，當我們思考你們的全球天然氣業務時，感謝卡羅爾，感謝您之前在交易中給出的一些見解。

I mean some of your competitors have talked about gas trading, maybe trending towards the lower end of the typical range as you think about returns uplift over the next couple of years due to market dynamics.

我的意思是，你們的一些競爭對手已經談到了天然氣交易，當您考慮由於市場動態而導致未來幾年的回報上升時，可能會趨向於典型範圍的下限。

When you look forward at your business over the next couple of years, both of your portfolio trading mix, global supply/demand dynamics and potential impact on pricing volatility, et cetera.

當您展望未來幾年的業務時，您的投資組合交易組合、全球供需動態以及對定價波動的潛在影響等。

What do you think about your gas trading business?

您對您的天然氣貿易業務有何看法？

And is that -- do you expect to be able to continue to grow that over the next couple of years?

您是否期望在未來幾年內能夠繼續成長？

Are there any broader dynamics that may push the kind of the returns uplift lower in the range?

是否存在任何更廣泛的動態可能會推動回報率在該範圍內下降？

And then maybe just a follow-up on specific timing, maybe any update on timing of Tortue and first gas and first cargos?

然後也許只是具體時間的後續行動，也許關於 Tortue 和第一批天然氣和第一批貨物的時間有任何更新嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Tortue, and then over to Carol on Tortue, we continue to make good progress.

Tortue，然後是 Tortue 上的 Carol，我們繼續取得良好進展。

We got the FPSO into the harbor.

我們將 FPSO 駛入港口。

I think Gordon, you were out there recently.

我想戈登，你最近在外面。

And now we're just hooking together all the equipment, and we'll have to start to flow gas relatively soon.

現在我們只是將所有設備連接在一起，我們將不得不相對快速地開始輸送氣體。

I think we'll start flowing gas into the systems.

我想我們將開始向系統注入氣體。

We obviously need to leak test, make sure everything is okay from the journeys across the world to get together.

顯然，我們需要進行洩漏測試，確保從世界各地的旅程到聚會的一切都很好。

And once we've got the leak testing done, then you'll move into starting the refrigeration units inside the LNG, and then you can start to build up cargoes.

一旦我們完成洩漏測試，您將開始啟動液化天然氣內部的冷凍裝置，然後您就可以開始堆積貨物。

We would look to introduce first gas into the system to start all the pressure testing, et cetera, over the next three or four months, I think, would be a comfortable place to say.

我們希望在接下來的三、四個月內將第一批氣體引入系統以開始所有壓力測試等，我認為這是一個合適的說法。

So that's what we can say on Tortue.

這就是我們對 Tortue 可以說的。

I'll just say to the teams in the field who are listening, stay safe guys, no matter what safety is all we care about.

我只想對現場傾聽的團隊說，大家注意安全，無論我們關心的是什麼安全。

Carol, let's see how you negotiate your performance contract.

卡羅爾，讓我們看看你如何協商演出合約。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you for that.

謝謝你。

I mean, the first thing I would say is that, from a trading and shipping perspective, overall, we've been consistent in our delivery.

我的意思是，我要說的第一件事是，從貿易和運輸的角度來看，總的來說，我們的交付是一致的。

So we have delivered, on average, an uplift of around 4% to the group's return on average capital employed over the past four years.

因此，在過去四年中，我們將集團的平均資本回報率平均提高了 4% 左右。

So that's through a number of cycles, a number of environments.

這需要經歷許多周期、許多環境。

I mean and roughly, we would say it's probably 50-50 oil gas.

我的意思是，粗略地說，我們可能會說它可能是 50-50 石油天然氣。

So we've also got a history, I would say, on the gas side of actually purchasing countercyclical.

因此，我想說，在天然氣方面，我們也有實際購買反週期的歷史。

So a lot of the long-term contracts that we've entered into on the supply side have been done at low points in the market.

因此，我們在供應方面簽訂的許多長期合約都是在市場低點時完成的。

So they are high-value contracts.

所以它們是高價值的合約。

And we also have strong strategic relationships in terms of contracts for sales into the East as well into other markets.

我們在東方以及其他市場的銷售合約方面也擁有強大的策略關係。

We're a top-tier energy trader.

我們是頂級能源貿易商。

So we're going to continue to invest in the platform.

因此，我們將繼續投資該平台。

This is my return performance contract to Murray.

這是我與穆雷的回歸表演合約。

We're going to continue to invest in the platform to maintain and grow that competitiveness.

我們將繼續投資該平台，以保持和增強競爭力。

And that does mean in looking at access to infrastructure to downstream markets.

這確實意味著要考慮進入下游市場的基礎設施。

And I mean this is both on the oil and gas side.

我的意思是這在石油和天然氣方面都是如此。

And as an example, we were the leaders of going into LNG downstream in China with Guangdong JV.

舉個例子，我們是與廣東合資企業進入中國液化天然氣下游領域的領導者。

So we're going to be continuing to look at opportunities there to also support and develop and grow that portfolio going forward.

因此，我們將繼續尋找機會來支持、開發和發展該投資組合。

So I'm still we're not guiding to the future, but I'm still holding that the team will be able to continue to deliver consistently with historic performance.

因此，我仍然認為我們不會指導未來，但我仍然認為團隊將能夠繼續保持歷史表現。

Yes.

是的。

And we've said since 2020, we've averaged 4% incremental return on Roace on the overall group capital employed, and there's no reason to think despite dampened volatility that we wouldn't be able to continue to do that, as Carol baked in some fabulous contracts over time.

我們說過，自2020 年以來，我們在集團所使用的整體資本中，Roace 的平均增量回報率為4%，儘管波動性減弱，但沒有理由認為我們無法繼續做到這一點，正如卡羅爾烘焙的那樣隨著時間的推移，在一些精彩的合約中。

Great questions.

很好的問題。

Back in the room now.

現在回到房間了。

Thanks, Murray.

謝謝，穆雷。

Can I ask a couple.

我可以問幾個嗎？

One on refining and downstream and the other capital allocation towards the renewable power businesses.

一個是煉油和下游業務，另一個是再生能源業務的資本配置。

So refining downstream, I can't feel like I'm losing track on what the earnings power of that business actually is.

因此，在下游進行精煉時，我不會覺得自己迷失了該業務的實際獲利能力。

Clearly, a chunk of that is because you've had a lot of downtime.

顯然，其中很大一部分原因是因為您有大量的停機時間。

TAs have been a real focus this year, last year.

去年和今年，助教一直是真正的焦點。

Just to try and give us some idea or some better idea of what the -- what you think the underlying earnings power of the refining assets are in a normalized price environment or at your RMM, whatever you -- however you choose to put it.

只是為了嘗試給我們一些想法或一些更好的想法，以了解您認為煉油資產的潛在盈利能力在正常化價格環境下或在您的 RMM 下是什麼，無論您如何選擇。

And I guess, aligned with that on the basis of the margin environment looks as though it will be tougher going forward.

我想，在利潤環境的基礎上與此一致，未來的發展似乎會更加困難。

You've talked in the past about margins shifting from Emma’s businesses to refining business.

您過去曾談到利潤從艾瑪業務轉移到煉油業務。

How much of that would you expect may shift back?

您預計其中有多少可能會回歸？

That's one question.

這是一個問題。

And the second, when you stood up -- towards the start of 2023, you talked about the allocation of $60 billion or so of capital towards the transition growth engines over the period of 2030.

第二，當您在 2023 年初站起來時，您談到了在 2030 年期間向轉型成長引擎分配 600 億美元左右的資本。

I know you're going to update in next year.

我知道你明年會更新。

But do you still think that it's -- or $25 billion to $30 billion of that was going to be allocated towards hydrogen, solar, offshore wind power in effect.

但你是否仍然認為其中 250 億至 300 億美元實際上將分配給氫能、太陽能和離岸風電？

Is that still a realistic number?

這仍然是一個現實的數字嗎？

Or is that something that you really think you can allocate elsewhere or not allocate at all?

或者您真的認為可以將其分配到其他地方或根本不分配？

That's it.

就是這樣。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Lukas, Emma do you want to tackle the refining and margin shift question, and I'll take the whole segment?

盧卡斯、艾瑪，你想解決精煉和利潤轉移問題嗎？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

Thanks, Lucas.

謝謝，盧卡斯。

On the refining side, the first thing I'd point to is safe operational performance.

在煉油方面，我首先要指出的是安全營運績效。

That's always our focus in refining.

這始終是我們精煉的重點。

And this quarter, we did had an availability of 96.4%, and four of our refineries were up at 96.5%.

本季度，我們的可用性確實達到了 96.4%，我們的四家煉油廠的可用性達到了 96.5%。

Just as a reminder, last year, the full year performance for refining was 96.1%, and that was a record since 2005, if I remember right.

提醒一下，去年煉油全年績效為96.1%，如果我沒記錯的話，這是2005年以來的最高紀錄。

So job number one is to run the kit safely.

因此，首要任務是安全運行該套件。

And then we optimize commercially.

然後我們進行商業優化。

Actually, we don't report refining, as you know, because we put it in products.

事實上，正如您所知，我們沒有報告精煉，因為我們將其放入產品中。

We work very closely together with Carol's business with -- on the oil trading and the product side and the midstream -- and so after job number one, which is safe operational performance, job number two is to optimize the commercial value.

我們與卡羅爾的業務部門密切合作——在石油貿易、產品方面和中游方面——因此，在第一項工作（安全營運績效）之後，第二項工作是優化商業價值。

And we do see value move up and down the chain from customers to products and back.

我們確實看到價值在客戶和產品之間的鏈條上上下移動。

I think as I reflect on '22 and '23, we saw elevated refining margins compared to history.

我認為，當我回顧 22 年和 23 年時，我們看到煉油利潤與歷史相比有所提高。

I think 27 RMM in the '22, '23 versus 15 in the period '15 to '21, if I remember.

如果我沒記錯的話，我認為 22 年、23 年期間為 27 RMM，而 15 年至 21 年期間為 15 RMM。

So there has been significant volatility in the refining.

所以煉油過程中出現了很大的波動。

So I'm not going to guide to the future because it's really difficult.

所以我不會指導未來，因為這真的很難。

But we do with our trading statements and Kate, we do aim to guide as we go into each quarter because the volatility just has been really, really significant over the past quarters.

但我們確實會用我們的交易報表來做，凱特，我們的目標是在進入每個季度時提供指導，因為過去幾個季度的波動性非常非常大。

And in this particular quarter, so second quarter '24, what we did see was, our RMM is based on the typical configuration of refineries in a specific region and then we blend it all together.

在這個特定的季度，即 24 年第二季度，我們看到的是，我們的 RMM 是基於特定地區煉油廠的典型配置，然後我們將它們混合在一起。

Actually, our advantaged refinery configuration has more distillate waiting, about 60%.

實際上，我們優勢煉油廠配置的餾分油等待量較多，約 60%。

And so that's why you saw in this quarter, with the diesel, well, the distillate in general, but the diesel margin declined significantly with gasoline going up that did impact our refining financial delivery this quarter.

這就是為什麼您在本季度看到柴油，嗯，一般來說是餾分油，但隨著汽油的上漲，柴油利潤率大幅下降，這確實影響了我們本季的煉油財務交付。

So I think hard to say for the future.

所以我覺得對於未來很難說。

The -- capacity numbers are great.

容量數字非常大。

I'm not sure -- slightly uncertain obvious how much -- or the extent to which the kit is actually available and how much more kit is going to be available to optimize, make money from, et cetera, in 2025 relative to the past two years.

我不確定——稍微不確定明顯有多少——或者該套件實際可用的程度，以及相對於過去，到 2025 年將有多少套件可用於優化、賺錢等兩年。

It's the scale of the task.

這是任務的規模。

And I guess associated with TARs, I presume the cost of a TAR are actually capitalized rather than take it through P&L.

我想與 TAR 相關，我認為 TAR 的成本實際上是資本化的，而不是透過損益表。

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So in terms of the tires, we do give guidance on the tires for this.

所以在輪胎方面，我們確實為此給了輪胎方面的指導。

And this year, we've said the tires will be weighted towards the second half and fourth quarter.

今年，我們說過輪胎將在下半年和第四季進行加權。

And I think on the and on the portfolio side, we have been streamlining our portfolio for some time now and with the six refineries remaining and we will also have talked about and gals incursion in particular that we will be reducing capacity from '25 in a controlled manner by about a third.

我認為在投資組合方面，我們已經精簡我們的投資組合有一段時間了，剩下六家煉油廠，我們還將討論女性的入侵，特別是我們將從 25 年開始減少產能。分之一。

So I think from a throughput capacity and availability.

所以我從吞吐量和可用性來考慮。

I think I'm happy to pick it up, but happy to pick this up later, but I think we give quite an on the on the availability quarter on quarter?

我想我很高興接受它，但很高興稍後再接受它，但我認為我們對每個季度的可用性給予了相當大的關注？

Yes.

是的。

I'll just go back to something we have made some comments we made in a previous quarter, Lucas, which is we expect the refining TARs to decrease in intensity from '25 onwards because we've had a heavy dose of tours in '22, '23, '24 as we catched up from the COVID time period where it was impossible to mobilize individuals.

我只想回到我們在上個季度發表的一些評論，盧卡斯，我們預計精煉 TAR 從 25 年開始強度會降低，因為我們在 22 年進行了大量的巡演, '23, '24 當我們趕上新冠疫情時期時，不可能動員個人。

So we do see a lessening of the TAR environment from '25 as we've done that catch-up.

因此，隨著我們的追趕，我們確實看到 TAR 環境自 25 年以來有所減少。

Capacity, I think we've -- I think you can see the capacity, you can see where we're operating at.

產能，我認為我們已經—我想你可以看到產能，你可以看到我們的營運狀況。

How much we actually utilize then is a question of supply and demand for the product.

那我們實際上利用了多少是產品的供需問題。

Right now, diesel is slightly oversupplied, gasoline is about average.

目前，柴油略顯過剩，汽油大致處於平均水平。

Let's see what happens in driving season.

讓我們看看駕駛季節會發生什麼。

Generally, you deplete these stocks as we move through driving season.

一般來說，當我們進入駕駛季節時，這些庫存就會耗盡。

And the interesting things to watch are, we have not seen any weather events yet in North America or Europe that would impact the refineries.

有趣的是，我們尚未在北美或歐洲看到任何會影響煉油廠的天氣事件。

We have seen them in the Asia and the Middle East, but not yet in the West.

我們在亞洲和中東已經看到了它們，但在西方還沒有看到。

So that will play on forward margin on what the earning capacity is.

因此，這將取決於獲利能力的遠期保證金。

And there have been 600 KBD of announced shutdowns that have not occurred yet from the third-party market.

第三方市場還有 600 KBD 已宣布關閉但尚未發生。

So in Europe, UK and the US we should see that $80 million a day of capacity shrink again as these things shut down, which again means less product flow and more transfer margin.

因此，在歐洲、英國和美國，隨著這些設施的關閉，我們應該會看到每天 8,000 萬美元的產能再次萎縮，這再次意味著產品流量減少和轉移利潤增加。

I think my overall conclusion in this space, Lucas, is that capacity is tight.

盧卡斯，我認為我在這個領域的總體結論是容量緊張。

Capacity is tight because continues to grow, refining capacity in the West continues to shrink.

由於產能持續緊張，西方煉油產能持續萎縮。

And we continue to have weather events that are quite volatile.

我們繼續遇到非常不穩定的天氣事件。

So I think what that leads me to is, we'll see quite a bit of volatility in margins around refining as far as the eye can see.

因此，我認為這導致我發現，就我們所見，我們將看到煉油業的利潤率出現相當大的波動。

That's how I relate to it.

我就是這樣看待它的。

And that our earnings capacity will be based on how we do in that.

我們的獲利能力將取決於我們在這方面的表現。

On your capital allocation question, it's probably more a question for February than it is today.

關於資本配置問題，二月的問題可能比今天更重要。

I think the statements that I can make right now are, in offshore wind, we're happy with our portfolio.

我認為我現在可以發表的聲明是，在離岸風電領域，我們對我們的投資組合感到滿意。

We're busy building out 10 gigawatts.

我們正忙於建造 10 吉瓦裝置容量。

We will do that for as little capital as possible.

我們將以盡可能少的資金做到這一點。

This for us is all about the electrons.

對我們來說，這都是關於電子的。

So we'll lever these up as much as we can, we'll bring partners in.

因此，我們將盡可能地利用這些資源，並引入合作夥伴。

And this is all about electron flows into our own business.

這都是關於電子流入我們自己的業務。

That's how we relate to offshore wind.

這就是我們與離岸風電的關係。

Lightsource BP, of which we're buying 50%.

Lightsource BP，我們購買其中 50% 的股份。

Once that's brought into the envelope, we adjusted a bit on what it's working on and we are happy that we optimized it.

一旦將其納入信封中，我們就對其工作進行了一些調整，我們很高興我們對其進行了優化。

We'll consider bringing in partners for that quite quickly.

我們將考慮很快為此引入合作夥伴。

So that will mean there's very little capital intensity in Lightsource BP for us.

因此，這意味著 Lightsource BP 對我們來說資本強度非常小。

And hydrogen, let's see how we get on on the five to 10 plants.

至於氫氣，讓我們看看我們在 5 到 10 座工廠的進展如何。

We've sanctioned two things, Castellon and Lingen.

我們已經批准了兩件事：卡斯特利翁和林根。

We have big decisions coming on NetZero Teeside here in the U.K. on the Integrated Energy Hub in Cunane in Australia is a big decision, and we have a few more as well that we need to think our way through.

我們在英國的 NetZero 蒂賽德做出了重大決定，在澳洲庫納內的綜合能源中心也是一個重大決定，我們還有其他一些決定需要我們思考。

Whatever those capital decisions are that will determine what the capital is for the decade, and I'd hate to prejudge that right now.

無論這些資本決策是什麼，都將決定未來十年的資本，我不想現在就做出預先判斷。

I hope that helps, Lucas.

我希望這有幫助，盧卡斯。

Another question in the room, Martijn?

馬丁，房間裡還有另一個問題嗎？

Hi.

你好。

Hello.

你好。

It's Martijn Rats for Morgan Stanley.

這是摩根士丹利的馬丁老鼠。

I've got two questions, if I may.

如果可以的話，我有兩個問題。

First of all, on the previous call, there was a question about the production profile in the second half of the decade due towards 2030 and what that could look like.

首先，在先前的電話會議上，有人提出了一個關於 2030 年下半年的生產概況以及可能會是什麼樣子的問題。

And I remember you mentioning at the time said, well, we have 32 possible FIDs ahead.

我記得您當時提到，我們有 32 個可能的 FID。

And what we decide on those will determine how that looks like.

我們對這些的決定將決定它的外觀。

I fully recognize you haven't done all 32 by now, but you've done 12, and you seem to have some strong ideas about Tiber and a few others.

我完全認識到您現在還沒有完成全部 32 個，但您已經完成了 12 個，並且您似乎對 Tiber 和其他一些人有一些強烈的想法。

So perhaps some clarity is emerging of what the production profile could look like in the second half of the decade and not to preempt yet another question that it shifted to February.

因此，也許本世紀後半葉的生產概況正在逐漸清晰，而不是搶佔另一個轉移到二月的問題。

But could you say something about the production profile in the second half of the decade?

但能否介紹一下本世紀後半葉的生產？

The other one I wanted to ask is about impairments.

我想問的另一個問題是關於損傷。

BP is not alone in this, but the impairments continue to run at very high levels.

英國石油公司並不是唯一一家這樣做的公司，但其減損仍處於非常高的水平。

And every quarter we go noncash, but it was cash ones.

每季我們都會使用非現金，但都是現金。

And impairments, they're not great.

還有損傷，它們並不大。

Can you say anything about what the outlook is for further impairment charges over the quarters and possibly years ahead?

您能否談談本季甚至未來幾年進一步減損支出的前景？

Great.

偉大的。

Kate I'll let you do impairments.

凱特，我會讓你做障礙。

On production profile, Martijn, I think so we've gone through 12 different sanctions, five of them we've approved, seven we have not.

關於生產情況，Martijn，我想我們已經經歷了 12 項不同的製裁，其中 5 項我們已經批准，7 項我們還沒有批准。

The two that we've approved in the upstream -- actually three in the upstream, sorry, we did Atlantis DC1 last time around.

我們在上游批准了兩個——實際上是上游三個，抱歉，我們上次做了亞特蘭提斯 DC1。

We've done Ruwais and we've done Kaskida.

我們已經完成了魯韋斯，我們也完成了卡斯基達。

Tiber looks hopeful, but we need to work our way through the supply chain to make sure that's the case.

泰伯看起來充滿希望，但我們需要透過供應鏈來確保情況確實如此。

So I can't prejudge Tiber, but I feel optimistic about it today.

所以我不能預先判斷台伯，但我今天對此感到樂觀。

So we have done some, but there's an awful lot more to go as we think about it in that program of 32.

我們已經做了一些工作，但是當我們在 32 人計劃中思考時，還有很多工作要做。

But I don't -- I'm not really thinking about production, what I'm thinking about is cash flow and returns.

但我不——我並沒有真正考慮生產，我考慮的是現金流和回報。

How can I really drive the upstream to be as prolific as possible on cash flow growth through the decade at the return hurdles that we have or better.

在我們擁有或更好的回報障礙下，我如何真正推動上游在十年內盡可能地實現現金流成長。

That's what that's how I really think about it.

這就是我真正的想法。

And what we've guided on cash flow is growing to 25% and then relatively stable.

我們對現金流量的指導成長至 25%，然後相對穩定。

I'm optimistic we'll do better than that.

我很樂觀，我們會做得更好。

I don't know what the production associated with that will be, but I'm optimistic that we can do better with that given the quality of the portfolio.

我不知道與此相關的生產是什麼，但我樂觀地認為，鑑於產品組合的質量，我們可以做得更好。

So let's see, Martijn.

讓我們看看，馬丁。

I think that's all I can say right now.

我想這就是我現在能說的。

And yes, we'll update you in February.

是的，我們會在二月向您通報最新情況。

Kate, over to you on impairments.

凱特，關於障礙的問題交給你了。

Yes.

是的。

So at 2Q, a chunk of the impairments were due to refining.

因此，在第二季度，大部分減損是由於精煉造成的。

And we've made previous announcements with regard to how we're seeking to optimize the Galfan Korkan and in particular, reducing the capacity there by a third.

我們之前已經宣布過如何優化 Galfan Korkan，特別是將其容量減少三分之一。

We said in the trading statement, it would be $1 billion to $2 billion post tax, we're being in the middle of that, impairments came in at $1.5 billion.

我們在交易聲明中表示，稅後收入將達到 10 億至 20 億美元，我們正處於其中，減損損失為 15 億美元。

The other point to just comment on with regard to refining is, we as a function of the accounting rules, which push you to be prudent, we took onerous contract provisions in the second quarter.

關於精煉，需要評論的另一點是，根據會計準則的規定，我們在第二季採取了繁重的合約條款，這促使您保持謹慎。

Those are calculated at a point in time before you have any option to commercially negotiate the outcome.

這些是在您有任何選擇進行商業談判結果之前的某個時間點計算的。

So I would expect we'll do an awful lot better than that.

所以我希望我們能做得更好。

And I give Emma a stretch target now that we see that entirely reversing as we step through it, because currently it's noncash cost, that truly is noncash cost.

我給艾瑪一個延伸目標，現在我們看到當我們逐步實現它時完全逆轉，因為目前它是非現金成本，這確實是非現金成本。

With regard to impairments going forward, it's a function of business decisions that we make in plans and environment.

關於未來的減值，它是我們在計劃和環境中做出的業務決策的函數。

So I'm not going to start predicting what that's going to look like, but I take your point.

所以我不會開始預測會是什麼樣子，但我同意你的觀點。

It's a bit tricky with IFRS, it makes you it effectively brings your asset values, but just mechanically brings your asset values down to your price and your discount rate.

IFRS 有點棘手，它讓你有效地帶來你的資產價值，但只是機械地將你的資產價值降低到你的價格和折扣率。

And then if your discount rate increases, you impair your discount rate drops the write-back.

然後，如果您的折現率增加，您的折現率就會降低，回寫也會減少。

And if your price points change up and down, you have to you have to write back, et cetera.

如果你的價格點上下變化，你必須回信，等等。

So I tend to think of it more like advanced depreciation because it's it's forcing us to depreciate earlier than we otherwise might have.

所以我傾向於認為它更像是提前折舊，因為它迫使我們比原本可能更早地進行折舊。

And that's the nature of the nature of financial rules.

這就是金融規則的本質。

So I am that's just another another thing to think about Martin, as you as you look at it.

所以我是，這只是你看待馬丁時所要思考的另一件事。

I just had a question for Emma about the marketing business.

我剛剛問艾瑪一個關於行銷業務的問題。

If you could give some picture on globally what you're seeing in same-store sales, particularly how may that shifts between -- splits between footfall and basket size and particularly within that actually the US given that you did call out previous quarters that you're seeing signs of consumer recession in the US.

如果您能描述一下全球範圍內同店銷售的情況，特別是客流量和購物籃規模之間的差異，尤其是在美國，因為您確實指出了前幾季度的情況，我們看到美國消費衰退的跡象。

Yes.

是的。

So in the marketing business, in terms of -- I think about we've got we did $4.5 billion last year and aiming towards the $7 billion in the four big areas of growth that we're aiming for.

因此，在行銷業務方面，我認為我們去年的營收為 45 億美元，目標是在四大成長領域實現 70 億美元。

The first one is in continued performance and convenience.

第一個是持續的性能和便利性。

We saw 6% margin growth first half this year versus first half last year.

今年上半年我們的利潤率比去年上半年成長了 6%。

To your question specifically on what is the growth is made up of like-for-like versus store revamps, it depends on the market.

對於你的問題，特別是成長是由同類還是商店改造組成的，這取決於市場。

So in the US, specifically, it's probably about a third like-for-like and two-third store revamps.

因此，具體而言，在美國，可能會進行大約三分之一的同類商店改造和三分之二的商店改造。

And each market is different depending on whether you have a program of store revamp.

每個市場都不同，取決於您是否有商店改造計劃。

So for example, we have store revamps currently under way in Poland.

例如，我們目前正在波蘭進行商店改造。

So there's more on the store revamp side.

因此，商店改造方面還有更多內容。

So continued performance and convenience will be a big part of our growth in the marketing businesses as we look through 2024 and 2025.

因此，展望 2024 年和 2025 年，持續的效能和便利性將成為我們行銷業務成長的重要組成部分。

In our base, when I think about the base business, Castrol has now had six quarters of momentum.

在我們的基地，當我想到基地業務時，嘉實多現在已經有六個季度的成長勢頭。

We had a record quarter in aviation this year.

今年我們的航空業季度創歷史新高。

And our cost program that I talked about earlier will continue to give some engine -- growth engine to the base business.

我之前談到的我們的成本計劃將繼續為基礎業務提供一些引擎——成長引擎。

I talked as well about EV already and Bunge will also contribute in that.

我已經談到了電動車，邦吉也將為此做出貢獻。

So as I look at sort of the big picture for the marketing business, I think we're well on track, and it's made up of a whole I mean, literally 20,000 sites on the retail side.

因此，當我縱觀行銷業務的整體情況時，我認為我們已經步入正軌，它由一個整體組成，我的意思是，實際上是零售方面的 20,000 個網站。

We worked them top line, bottom line, and we work all the other B2B businesses as well.

我們為他們提供頂線、底線服務，同時我們也為所有其他 B2B 業務提供服務。

So really a big diverse portfolio there to get after.

因此，確實有一個巨大的多元化投資組合值得追求。

Amazing, we're number five in convenience in the United States would have thought.

令人驚訝的是，我們的便利性在美國排名第五。

Chris?

克里斯？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Chris Kuplent from Bank of America.

美國銀行的克里斯·庫普倫特。

Two questions.

兩個問題。

First one is on your '25 targets again.

第一個是你的 25 年目標。

And I think Emma, you referred to '22, '23 as remarkable years in many respects in terms of achieved refining margins.

我認為艾瑪，您提到“22”和“23”在煉油利潤方面的許多方面都是非凡的年份。

So I wonder, can you add a little bit more subtlety around what I -- was a very subtle change already suggesting that these EBITDA targets are to be achieved at '23 prices.

所以我想知道，你能否在我的基礎上添加一些更微妙的內容——這是一個非常微妙的變化，已經表明這些 EBITDA 目標將以 23 年的價格實現。

And I recall that they used to be based on mid-cycle assumptions way back in '21 when we didn't have RMMs above 20% and yet they were above 20% in both '23 as well as in H1.

我記得它們曾經基於早在 21 年的中期假設，當時我們的 RMM 沒有超過 20%，但它們在 23 年和上半年都高於 20%。

And if I extrapolate H1 earnings, I kind of struggle to get to that EBITDA figure even if I give you full credit for these EV and low carbon growth numbers coming through.

如果我推斷上半年收益，即使我完全相信這些電動車和低碳成長數據，我也很難得出 EBITDA 數據。

So I wonder what you can talk to us through about that.

所以我想知道你能和我們談談這個問題。

I thought quite subtle change in underlying assumptions behind these '25 targets.

我認為這些「25 年目標」背後的基本假設發生了相當微妙的變化。

And then just a follow-up for you, Kate, on the net working capital.

凱特，接下來是關於淨營運資本的後續行動。

Is it appropriate to think about the Q2 as a $1.5 billion roughly reversal because the headline of $500 million or so includes the Gulf of Mexico spill payment?

由於 5 億美元左右的標題包括墨西哥灣洩漏付款，因此將第二季視為 15 億美元的大致逆轉是否合適？

And are you confident that the remainder of the Q1 build is going to reverse in Q3?

您是否有信心第一季的剩餘建設將在第三季逆轉？

Or what more color can you give us around that?

還是你還能給我們什麼更多的色彩？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

So maybe if I take that one first. we had a $2.4 billion capital build -- working capital build in the first quarter.

所以也許我先拿那個。第一季我們的資本建設－營運資本建設達到了 24 億美元。

Yes, it's about $1.5 billion that's come back this quarter.

是的，本季的回報約為 15 億美元。

So we've got about another $1 billion to come.

因此，我們還有大約 10 億美元的資金。

So as I said, I think earlier, we are expecting net working capital release in third quarter.

正如我所說，我認為早些時候，我們預計第三季將釋放淨營運資本。

So my expectation based on our current forecast is that, net debt will trend down in the third quarter prior to acquisitions that will consolidate acquired debt, right?

因此，根據我們目前的預測，我的預期是，在合併收購債務的收購之前，淨債務將在第三季呈現下降趨勢，對吧？

On the assumptions.

就假設而言。

I think at 1Q, it might have been 4Q when we were talking, we made it very clear, we were building from the '23 delivery to how you are confident in the '25 targets.

我認為在第一季度，我們談論的時候可能是第四季度，我們說得很清楚，我們正在從 23 年的交付到您對 25 年目標的信心。

And we said, okay, at these prices, with these buckets of growth that we've got line of sight to in the underlying business, that's how you get to your $46 million to $49 million.

我們說，好吧，以這些價格，隨著我們在基礎業務中看到的這些增長，這就是你如何獲得 4,600 萬至 4,900 萬美元的收入。

And we will ask you to triangulate back to that.

我們會要求您對此進行三角測量。

I think, and maybe Craig and the IR team can follow up afterwards.

我想，也許 Craig 和 IR 團隊可以隨後跟進。

When the original slide was put out, there was a footnote which talked about 2021 planning assumptions.

當原始幻燈片發佈時，有一個腳註談到了 2021 年的規劃假設。

So maybe, Craig, you can pick that up with Chris after the call.

克雷格，也許你可以在通話結束後與克里斯一起解決這個問題。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

It’s Josh Stone of UBS.

這是瑞銀 (UBS) 的 Josh Stone。

First, I want to pick up on the decision to fully consolidate Bunge and Lightsource BP, because it seems like there are some companies in the sector are choosing to separate out those businesses and you've got your way to fully consolidate and back into the BP balance sheet, too.

首先，我想談談全面合併 Bunge 和 Lightsource BP 的決定，因為似乎該行業的一些公司正在選擇分離這些業務，而您已經找到了完全合併並重新回到原來的業務的方法。負債表也是如此。

Can you talk about the benefits of those businesses being part of BP versus a stand-alone entity.

您能否談談這些業務作為 BP 的一部分與獨立實體相比的優勢。

So that's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

And second one, I did want to follow up on sort of surplus cash flow and buybacks.

第二，我確實想跟進剩餘現金流和回購情況。

Because if we look at the first half of the year, surplus cash flow has underperformed where your buyback level is.

因為如果我們看看今年上半年，盈餘現金流的表現遜色於你的回購水準。

And so you -- it looks like you've been using debt to help pay the buyback.

所以你——看起來你一直在用債務來幫助支付回購費用。

But when you decided to maintain the buyback flat and clearly using the outlook, and you've mentioned a lot of the positives on the outlook you're using to maintain that buyback.

但是，當您決定維持回購不變並明確使用前景時，您提到了您用來維持回購的前景的許多積極因素。

So maybe just go through some of the one of the key building blocks in that improvement on surplus cash -- and how much of an outlook are you using?

因此，也許只需回顧一下改善剩餘現金的關鍵組成部分之一 - 您使用了多少前景？

Is it just the second half of this year?

今年才下半年嗎？

Or are you also counting on 2025 growth to help maintain the buyback?

或者您還指望 2025 年的成長來幫助維持回購？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

I'll start with Lightsource BP, then Emma, you want to handle Bunge consolidation and then Kate.

我將從 Lightsource BP 開始，然後是您想要處理 Bunge 整合的 Emma，然後是 Kate。

I think on Lightsource BP, look, we had a partner when we put it off balance sheet back in 2017 fabulous entrepreneur, helped us grow the business up to four or five gigawatt development per year, but hit the end of when they wanted to continue doing this.

我認為在Lightsource BP 上，看，當我們在2017 年將其從資產負債表中扣除時，我們有一個合作夥伴，一位出色的企業家，幫助我們將業務發展到每年四到五吉瓦的發展，但當他們想要繼續時就結束了做這個。

So now is the time where they wanted to cash out, it was convenient for us to go in and take control over 100%.

所以現在是他們要套現的時候，我們進去控制100%就方便了。

It's a fabulous vehicle to go and help Carol build out her business.

這是幫助卡羅爾拓展業務的絕佳工具。

So many customers around the world want natural gas coupled with power -- clean power to start to decarbonize their own energy systems.

世界各地的許多客戶希望將天然氣與電力（清潔能源）結合，以開始使自己的能源系統脫碳。

And with the growth of hyperscalers, we're seeing just increased demand after demand after demand.

隨著超大規模企業的成長，我們看到需求不斷增加。

So taking 100% control of that entity given that incredible native demand we see for energy, especially from the hyperscalers now and the desire of nations to transition makes an awful lot of sense.

因此，考慮到我們看到的令人難以置信的本土能源需求，特別是來自現在的超大規模企業以及各國轉型的願望，對該實體進行 100% 的控制是非常有意義的。

At the same time, once you've taken that control, you've restructured it, done some stuff to the portfolio based on where your customers sit, et cetera, you will then think about bringing a passive partner into this.

同時，一旦你掌握了這種控制權，你就對其進行了重組，根據你的客戶的情況對產品組合做了一些事情等等，然後你就會考慮將一個被動的合作夥伴帶入其中。

You'll think about giving a passive partner it.

你會考慮把它送給一個被動的夥伴。

They've got a very different cost of capital than we have.

他們的資本成本與我們截然不同。

And so that should offer the chance to arbitrage the price over time.

因此，隨著時間的推移，這應該提供套利價格的機會。

Murray.

默里.

Well, let's see when we complete and then probably over 12 to 18 months, we'd bring somebody else in.

好吧，讓我們看看什麼時候完成，然後可能在 12 到 18 個月內，我們會引入其他人。

So that's why we think it was a really good time, both given where the partner was, the opportunity we see in the market and how we see that business moving forward.

這就是為什麼我們認為這是一個非常好的時機，無論是考慮到合作夥伴的位置、我們在市場上看到的機會以及我們如何看待業務的發展。

So that's how we think about Lightsource BP.

這就是我們對 Lightsource BP 的看法。

Emma, on Bunge?

艾瑪，在邦吉嗎？

Yes, as sort of a very short answer on Bungie.

是的，這是對 Bungie 的一個非常簡短的回答。

We've been in the joint venture since 2019.

我們自 2019 年以來一直是合資企業。

So we actually understand the operational performance metrics now quite well and saw the opportunity to take the 50% to then consolidate 100% because the two biggest sources of value are inaccessible to us as just a 15%, namely the first one is about integrating with Carol's business on the trading side.

因此，我們現在實際上非常了解營運績效指標，並看到了將 50% 整合到 100% 的機會，因為我們僅用 15% 就無法獲得兩個最大的價值來源，即第一個是與卡羅爾的生意是貿易方面的。

So that's a big source of value.

所以這是一個很大的價值來源。

They're very difficult to do when you're 50-50.

當你50-50歲的時候，這些事情很難做到。

And and then the other source of value is applying Larry, you mentioned earlier some of the science, but also some of our techniques from refining on automated control systems.

然後另一個價值來源是應用拉里，你之前提到過一些科學，還有我們在自動化控制系統上精煉的一些技術。

For example, we see the opportunity to increase the mill uptime and so again, difficult to do when you're when it's in a joint venture, 50-50.

例如，我們看到了增加工廠正常運作時間的機會，因此，當您在合資企業（50-50）時，很難做到這一點。

So I think the source of the value and we can see them immediately ahead of us in the near term and then there's tons to do long term, a lot to do on the biogas side, we can use the waste from the mills and we'll take relatively small investment waste from the mills to be able to then convert into biogas, digester, biogas and then either using our own vehicle network with a massive vehicle network there.

所以我認為價值的來源，我們可以在短期內看到它們就在我們面前，然後長期來看，還有很多事情要做，在沼氣方面還有很多事情要做，我們可以利用工廠的廢物，我們「我們將從工廠中提取相對較少的投資廢物，然後將其轉化為沼氣、沼氣池、沼氣，然後使用我們自己的車輛網絡和那裡的龐大車輛網絡。

We have 1,500 vehicles combined harvesters in the field and either to use your own fleet over time or to sell into the grid.

我們在現場擁有 1,500 輛聯合收割機，隨著時間的推移，您可以使用自己的車隊，也可以出售給電網。

That's a big opportunity.

這是一個很大的機會。

Again, hard to do when you're 50-50 and you have different objectives for the joint venture and then there's more to do in the future on and on next generation ethanol.

再說一次，當你的規模為 50-50 且合資企業有不同的目標時，這很難做到，而且未來在下一代乙醇方面還有更多工作要做。

So I think those things we see both near term sources of value and then in the long in the medium to long term opportunities for investment to really bring this to life.

因此，我認為我們既看到了近期的價值來源，也看到了中長期的投資機會，真正將其變為現實。

So our decisions are driven by how do we create the maximum value for shareholders.

因此，我們的決策取決於如何為股東創造最大價值。

That's how we drive.

我們就是這樣開車的。

And that's the two examples in that case.

這就是該案例中的兩個例子。

Kate, over to you on the other question yes.

凱特，接下來的問題交給你了，是的。

Yes.

是的。

So when we updated the fin frame at the fourth quarter, we deliberately stepped away from the quarter-on-quarter calculation of surplus cash because it was creating an awful lot of volatility and perhaps unhelpful focus on what's your absolute surplus cash in any one quarter.

因此，當我們在第四季度更新財務框架時，我們故意放棄按季度計算盈餘現金，因為它會造成巨大的波動性，並且可能對關注任何一個季度的絕對盈餘現金沒有幫助。

So we wanted to provide predictability and a level of certainty into the market with regard to the forward share buyback.

因此，我們希望為市場提供遠期股票回購的可預測性和一定程度的確定性。

1Q, we had a whiting outage that was significant, as you know.

如你所知，第一季度，我們發生了一次嚴重的鱈魚中斷。

So the surplus cash was lower than we might have expected.

因此，剩餘現金低於我們的預期。

At 2Q, the level of share buyback compared to surplus cash is down to 59%.

第二季度，股票回購水準與剩餘現金相比下降至 59%。

So what we're saying is, 80% over time, at least 80% over time to surplus cash.

所以我們所說的是，80%隨著時間的推移，至少80%隨著時間的推移變成剩餘現金。

And as the Board makes its decisions and as we had the conversation last week with regard to the second half of 2024, we take into consideration what's come today and what's coming forward.

當董事會做出決定時，以及我們上週就 2024 年下半年進行的對話時，我們會考慮今天發生的事情和未來的事情。

And we're confident in the delivery of the business.

我們對業務的交付充滿信心。

We're confident in the improved performance.

我們對改進的性能充滿信心。

There's a lot of discipline that we're putting into the capital frame.

我們在資本框架中加入了很多規則。

As you know, we've tightened that right down to around 16% for the year, and we're bang on that at the first half.

如您所知，今年我們已將這一比例收緊至 16% 左右，並且我們在上半年就實現了這一目標。

Divestments are slightly higher than 2023 at 2% to 3%.

撤資率略高於 2023 年，為 2% 至 3%。

We've probably got between $1 billion and $2 billion more to come on that.

我們可能還需要 10 億到 20 億美元來解決這個問題。

And we've got a full year of cash flow from TA to take into consideration.

我們還需要考慮 TA 全年的現金流。

So we're confident in our delivery and our outlook for the remainder of 2024.

因此，我們對 2024 年剩餘時間的交付和前景充滿信心。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, Kate.

謝謝，凱特。

I realize that we're overrunning, so I'm going to take one more call on the phone.

我意識到我們已經超支了，所以我要再接一個電話。

Apologies for that with Doug Leggate at Wolfe, and then I'm going to have to close it down, and we'll follow up with any other questions out there.

對此向 Wolfe 的 Doug Leggate 表示歉意，然後我將不得不關閉它，我們將跟進任何其他問題。

Doug, over to you.

道格，交給你了。

Thank you, Murray.

謝謝你，穆雷。

I can you hear me okay?

我你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes, I hear you great.

是的，我聽到你說得很好。

Thanks, Doug.

謝謝，道格。

Yes.

是的。

My follow-up is, I want to come up to the buyback question.

我的後續行動是，我想談談回購問題。

I've had the pleasure of covering many of your peers for three decades.

三十年來，我很榮幸能夠報道你們的許多同行。

And the big difference between those buying back stock in yourselves is a much, much stronger balance sheet.

那些回購股票的人之間的最大區別是資產負債表要強大得多。

And if I look at your share performance since you started the buyback, you really haven't had any benefit.

如果我看看自從你開始回購以來你的股價表現，你確實沒有得到任何好處。

Your share price is down and you bought back a fifth of your stock, but your net debt remains relatively high if you include the hybrids.

你的股價下跌，你回購了五分之一的股票，但如果你包括混合動力，你的淨債務仍然相對較高。

I'm just curious why you believe that method of cash return is still the optimal way to maximize value for shareholders.

我只是好奇為什麼你認為現金回報方式仍然是股東價值最大化的最佳方式。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

On long-term production, yes, we're running about 2.3 right now, but of course, we've got some divestments.

在長期生產方面，是的，我們現在正在運行大約 2.3，但當然，我們已經進行了一些撤資。

We've announced the divestment of Egypt into a joint venture that will take effect in fourth quarter, I think, which should drop production about 50 kbd, so it will be down at 2,250, and then we have some other divestments that we continue to pursue low-margin, high-volume assets that may or may not happen, but if they were to happen, that would drop their production to around 2-ish.

我們已經宣布將埃及撤資成立一家合資企業，我認為這將在第四季度生效，產量將下降約 50 kbd，因此產量將下降至 2,250，然後我們將繼續進行其他一些撤資追求低利潤、高產量的資產，這可能會發生，也可能不會發生，但如果發生，它們的產量就會下降到大約2 左右。

As far as what the production outturn looks like for the back end of the decade.

就本世紀末的生產情況而言。

Of course, we'll update you on February and where that is.

當然，我們會在二月向您通報最新情況。

And I'll just repeat what I said earlier.

我將重複我之前所說的話。

I'm focused on cash flow and returns.

我關注的是現金流和回報。

And production will be an outcome of that, but I'm really, really focused on growing cash flow.

生產將是其結果，但我真的非常專注於增加現金流。

If I just wanted to grow volume, I could plow all the money in the world into the Haynesville and I could grow volumes like crazy, but that's not the right thing to do for shareholders is to create cash flow and returns.

如果我只是想增加銷量，我可以將世界上所有的錢投入海恩斯維爾，我可以瘋狂地增加銷量，但對於股東來說，創造現金流和回報並不是正確的做法。

And so that's why I'm focused so much on that, Doug.

這就是為什麼我如此關注這一點，道格。

So I hope that helps you.

所以我希望這對你有幫助。

And Kate, over to you.

凱特，交給你了。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Murry.

謝謝，穆里。

Doug, hi, nice to hear your voice.

道格，嗨，很高興聽到你的聲音。

We've already had one debate with regard to share buybacks versus debt.

我們已經就股票回購與債務進行了一場辯論。

I'm sure we'll have others by the sound of it.

我相信從聲音上看我們還會有其他人。

Look, I think I said earlier on the call, the investors that we talked to, they like the balance of the financial frame as we've currently got it structured.

看，我想我之前在電話會議上說過，我們採訪過的投資者，他們喜歡我們目前建立的財務框架的平衡。

As I said, it's sector-leading distributions.

正如我所說，它是業界領先的發行版。

And the balance sheet is in good shape.

資產負債表狀況良好。

It is strong.

它很強大。

We have brought it down a significant amount since 2020.

自 2020 年以來，我們已將其大幅降低。

And the flywheel that the share buybacks give us to be able to continually increase dividends, as you've seen in the last three years we have done 10% each of the second quarters.

股票回購為我們帶來了飛輪，使我們能夠不斷增加股息，正如你所看到的，在過去三年裡，我們每個第二季度的股息都增加了 10%。

It creates a flywheel for that and the increasing earnings per share.

它為此創造了一個飛輪以及不斷增加的每股盈餘。

So for now, we're comfortable with where that sits, and we like the balance, and so do our investors.

因此，就目前而言，我們對目前的情況感到滿意，我們喜歡這種平衡，我們的投資者也是如此。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks very much, everybody.

非常感謝大家。

Thanks for listening.

感謝收聽。

Sorry, we overran a bit, and I hope everybody has a nice one.

抱歉，我們有點超出了，希望每個人都過得愉快。

Take care.

小心。