英國石油 (BP) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to BP's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Results Presentation. I'm delighted to be here today with our newly appointed Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer; Murray Auchincloss; and Kate Thomson.

大家早安，歡迎來到 BP 2023 年第四季和全年業績發表會。我很高興今天能與我們新任命的執行長和財務長一起來到這裡。默里‧奧金克洛斯；和凱特·湯姆森。

Before we begin today, let me draw your attention to our cautionary statement. During today's presentation, we will make forward-looking statements that refer to our estimates, plans and expectations. Actual results and outcomes could differ materially due to factors we note on this slide and in our U.K. and SEC filings.

在今天開始之前，讓我提請您注意我們的警告聲明。在今天的演講中，我們將做出涉及我們的估計、計劃和期望的前瞻性陳述。由於我們在這張投影片以及我們在英國和美國證券交易委員會的文件中註意到的因素，實際結果和結果可能會存在重大差異。

Please refer to our annual report, stock exchange announcement and SEC filings for more details. These documents, along with this presentation, are available on our website. Let me now hand over to Murray.

更多詳情請參閱我們的年度報告、證券交易所公告和美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 備案文件。這些文件以及本簡報可在我們的網站上取得。現在讓我把時間交給穆雷。

Good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining us today here at St. James. We've done this before, haven't we? But it's the first set of results where I have the privilege to talk to you as CEO of BP. It's a great company. It has great people, and it's an honor to lead.

大家早安。感謝您今天來到聖詹姆斯。我們以前做過這樣的事，不是嗎？但這是我有幸作為 BP 執行長與你們交談的第一組結果。這是一家很棒的公司。它擁有優秀的人才，領導它是一種榮耀。

Our destination is unchanged, IOC to IEC, international oil company to integrated energy company. We're confident in our strategy to deliver this, but are going to do so is a simpler, more focused and higher value company, providing energy solutions for our customers who are asking us to help, contributing to the energy transition, all the while remaining pragmatic and adapting in line with demand, as you saw with the update to our strategy this time 12 months ago.

我們的目的地沒有改變，從IOC到IEC，從國際石油公司到綜合能源公司。我們對實現這一目標的策略充滿信心，但我們將成為一家更簡單、更專注和更高價值的公司，為要求我們提供幫助的客戶提供能源解決方案，同時為能源轉型做出貢獻保持務實並根據需求進行調整，正如您在12 個月前更新我們的策略時所看到的那樣。

So what does it practically mean to transition from IOC to IEC. Over 100 years ago, we started to create our first value chain, oilfields attached to refineries, with products sold in service stations and airports. We're now introducing biofuels, sustainable aviation fuel and biodiesel to the customer. At the same time, we're lowering the carbon footprint of our plants by using lower carbon hydrogen and electricity for power. Why? Because we can deliver higher margins with lower emissions.

那麼從 IOC 過渡到 IEC 的實際意義是什麼？ 100 多年前，我們開始創建第一個價值鏈：油田附屬於煉油廠，產品在加油站和機場銷售。我們現在向客戶推出生物燃料、永續航空燃料和生質柴油。同時，我們透過使用低碳氫和電力來降低工廠的碳足跡。為什麼？因為我們可以以更低的排放量提供更高的利潤。

Over 60 years ago, we started to create the second value chain, natural gas fields linked to domestic pipeline systems and eventually liquefaction plants. We're now introducing biogas, carbon sequestration and lower carbon electricity to the customer. Why? Because we can deliver higher margins with lower emissions.

60 多年前，我們開始創建第二條價值鏈，即與國內管道系統相連的天然氣田，並最終連接到液化廠。我們現在正在向客戶介紹沼氣、碳封存和低碳電力。為什麼？因為我們可以以更低的排放量提供更高的利潤。

And over the past 4 years, we've been accelerating our efforts to create a third value chain, lower carbon power and hydrogen. For example, using solar-wind to create lower carbon hydrogen to provide to our plants and customers and using those electrons to service the growing electricity demand through our EV charging business. Why? Because we can deliver higher margins with lower emissions.

在過去的四年裡，我們一直在加快打造第三條價值鏈——低碳電力和氫能。例如，利用太陽能風能產生低碳氫化合物以提供給我們的工廠和客戶，並透過我們的電動車充電業務利用這些電子來滿足不斷增長的電力需求。為什麼？因為我們可以以更低的排放量提供更高的利潤。

All of these chains are then optimized by our fantastic trading organization, driving superior returns to what a pure play can deliver. And the more we can interlink them, the more we can expand the returns. Over the past 4 years, we've delivered, on average, around a 4% uplift to group return on average capital employed across these chains through these efforts. We think this is a sector leading.

然後，所有這些鏈條都會由我們出色的交易組織進行優化，從而帶來比純粹遊戲所能帶來的更高回報。我們越能將它們相互連結起來，我們就越能擴大回報。在過去 4 年裡，透過這些努力，我們讓這些連鎖店的平均資本回報率平均提高了 4% 左右。我們認為這是業界領先的。

Now across all these chains, we've always have choice about how much we produce ourselves in the upstream or purchase from other producers. That equally applies to oil, natural gas and renewables. The magic is getting that mix right inside our business lines to optimize returns and trading optionality. The most important part is to ensure absolute discipline in investing (inaudible) capital, ensuring we hit our return thresholds across these value chains. That's what an IEC is to me, investing in today's energy system while building out tomorrow's, lower carbon, higher margin.

現在，在所有這些鏈條中，我們始終可以選擇在上游自己生產多少或從其他生產商那裡購買多少。這同樣適用於石油、天然氣和再生能源。神奇之處在於將這種組合融入到我們的業務範圍內，以優化回報和交易選擇性。最重要的部分是確保投資（聽不清楚）資本的絕對紀律，確保我們達到這些價值鏈的回報門檻。這就是 IEC 對我的意義，投資當今的能源系統，同時建立明天的低碳、高利潤。

Now it's 4 years in. We've learned a lot and adapted along the way. It's made us stronger, more confident in the growth we have coming and more convinced about the value we can create. I'm passionate about this strategy, as I think there are only a few companies globally that can do this at scale. And as we deliver, we will grow the value of BP, and that's what I'm focused on, growing the value of BP.

現在已經四年了。我們學到了很多東西，也一路適應了。它使我們變得更強大，對我們即將到來的成長更有信心，對我們所能創造的價值更有信心。我對這項策略充滿熱情，因為我認為全球只有少數公司能夠大規模做到這一點。當我們交付時，我們將增加 BP 的價值，這就是我所關注的，增加 BP 的價值。

So what should you expect from us moving forward? As always, let's start with safety. We're making good progress, but there's always more we can do. Delivering safety is very important to me, and it's very personal. 4 generations of my family have worked in the sector. My great grandfather actually died in an industrial accident. And I can remember my father teaching me about the dangers of hydrogen sulfide and a natural gas field as a child. We work in a high hazard industry. And every day, we must make sure everyone comes home safe. That's our first priority.

那麼您對我們的前進有何期望呢？一如既往，讓我們從安全開始。我們正在取得良好進展，但我們仍然可以做得更多。提供安全對我來說非常重要，而且是非常個人化的。我家有四代都在這個行業工作。我的曾祖父實際上死於一場工業意外。我還記得小時候父親教我有關硫化氫和天然氣田的危險。我們從事高危險行業。每一天，我們都必須確保每個人都能安全回家。這是我們的首要任務。

The past few years have been about generating options. Now we will focus our efforts on the key areas where we can be competitive, and we'll simplify the business. We'll pursue this in every way you can imagine from origination to our narrative.

過去幾年一直在創造選擇。現在我們將把精力集中在我們能夠具有競爭力的關鍵領域，我們將簡化業務。我們將用你能想像到的一切方式來追求這個目標，從起源到我們的敘事。

We will be relentlessly value and returns focused with our investments, focused on growing value and returns from our oil and gas portfolio, leveraging our high-quality resource base and driving efficiency and reliability, as we laid out in our update in Denver last year and growing value from our transition businesses as we invest with discipline in the pipeline we have developed and by creating even more value through integration. We will continue to be pragmatic in our approach to how we navigate this energy transition.

正如我們去年在丹佛的更新中所闡述的那樣，我們將堅持不懈地關注我們的投資的價值和回報，專注於增加我們的石油和天然氣投資組合的價值和回報，利用我們的優質資源基礎並提高效率和可靠性。隨著我們對已開發的管道進行嚴格投資，並透過整合創造更多價值，我們的轉型業務價值不斷增長。我們將繼續採取務實的態度來應對這項能源轉型。

Yes, we want to help scale lower carbon energy value chains and position ourselves to profit from them, but we must remain flexible, adjusting in line with changing demands and societal needs, as you saw us do in February last year.

是的，我們希望幫助擴大低碳能源價值鏈，並從中獲利，但我們必須保持靈活性，根據不斷變化的需求和社會需求進行調整，正如您在去年二月看到的那樣。

And we have a tremendous team delivering this, and I want to ensure we place engineering science and technology, both digital and physical at the heart of the company.

我們擁有一支強大的團隊來實現這一目標，我希望確保我們將數位和物理工程科學和技術置於公司的核心。

I've seen firsthand the impact and possibilities of innovation and digital solutions, including across the upstream and expanding our customer offer and improving our back-office processes. And some of you saw this for yourself in Denver. What's really exciting, we see potential to do even more to transform our businesses.

我親眼目睹了創新和數位解決方案的影響和可能性，包括整個上游、擴大我們的客戶服務以及改善我們的後台流程。你們中的一些人在丹佛親眼目睹了這一點。真正令人興奮的是，我們看到了採取更多措施來改變我們業務的潛力。

We've been working with AI, including machine learning and computer vision models for more than 5 years, and we have over 100 live AI case -- use cases across the business now. These proven enormous opportunity to help us capture increase margin and decrease spending.

我們在人工智慧（包括機器學習和電腦視覺模型）方面的工作已經超過 5 年了，我們現在有 100 多個即時人工智慧案例——整個企業的用例。事實證明，這些巨大的機會可以幫助我們提高利潤並減少支出。

And finally, you can expect to see us continuing to make full use of our creative commercial muscle to optimize how we invest and create value with Aker BP and Lightsource bp providing excellent examples for the future.

最後，您可以期待看到我們繼續充分利用我們的創意商業力量來優化我們的投資方式和創造價值，Aker BP 和 Lightsource bp 為未來提供了優秀的範例。

So to sum up, the destination is unchanged, but we're going to deliver as a simpler, more focused and higher value company, unlocking the full potential of our assets and our people and growing the value of BP.

總而言之，目標沒有改變，但我們將成為一家更簡單、更專注和更高價值的公司，釋放我們資產和員工的全部潛力，並提高 BP 的價值。

So let's turn to 2023 and what was a year of continuing delivery. Starting with safety, we have seen improvements in our safety performance, reducing our Tier 1 and Tier 2 process safety events, but we have more to do. We need to keep improving to eliminate all Tier 1 process safety events, continuing to apply OMS and constantly reinforcing and building on our operating culture across the business.

讓我們展望 2023 年，這是持續交付的一年。從安全開始，我們的安全績效得到了改善，減少了一級和二級流程安全事件，但我們還有更多工作要做。我們需要不斷改進，以消除所有一級流程安全事件，繼續應用 OMS，並不斷加強和建立我們整個企業的營運文化。

Next to our business performance, where we have delivered resilient operational and financial performance in 2023. Adjusted EBITDA was $43.7 billion. Operating cash flow was $32 billion. Net debt reduced to $20.9 billion, and average return on capital employed was 18.1%.

除了我們的業務業績外，我們在 2023 年實現了富有彈性的營運和財務表現。調整後 EBITDA 為 437 億美元。營運現金流為 320 億美元。淨負債減少至 209 億美元，平均已用資本報酬率為 18.1%。

We are executing our strategy with discipline across our oil and gas business and our transition growth engines, as I'll come to in a minute. And we are delivering competitive shareholder distributions. We grew our dividend for ordinary share by 10% last year. Today, we announced a further $1.75 billion of share buybacks, bringing our total buybacks announced from 2023 surplus cash flow to $6.5 billion. We have seen strong momentum in our operational and strategic delivery in 2023.

正如我稍後將談到的，我們正在整個石油和天然氣業務以及轉型成長引擎中嚴格執行我們的策略。我們正在提供有競爭力的股東分配。去年我們的普通股股利增加了 10%。今天，我們宣布進一步進行 17.5 億美元的股票回購，使我們宣布的 2023 年盈餘現金流的回購總額達到 65 億美元。我們在 2023 年的營運和策略交付方面看到了強勁的勢頭。

Starting with oil and gas. Our upstream production grew by 2.6%. We started up 4 major projects that we expect to contribute more than 50% towards our target of 200 mboe/d by 2025. BPX production grew by 13%, surpassing 400 mboe/d in the fourth quarter. We managed base decline between 3% to 5%, supported by high return investments and new well delivery and well work. And in refining, availability was over 96% for the year.

從石油和天然氣開始。上游產量成長2.6%。我們啟動了 4 個主要項目，預計到 2025 年將為實現 200 mboe/d 的目標貢獻 50% 以上。BPX 產量增加 13%，第四季度超過 400 mboe/d。在高回報投資以及新油井交付和油井工作的支持下，我們將基數下降控制在 3% 至 5% 之間。煉油方面，全年可利用率超過 96%。

Our LNG supply portfolio increased by 20% to around 23 million tonnes per annum, largely driven by Coral and Freeport. In addition, we delivered 10 million tonnes per annum of incremental short- and mid-term merchant volumes.

我們的液化天然氣供應組合增加了 20%，達到每年約 2,300 萬噸，這主要是由 Coral 和 Freeport 推動的。此外，我們每年交付 1,000 萬噸增量短期和中期商業量。

We completed Atlantic restructuring, enabling the next wave of projects in Trinidad and securing long-term LNG equity offtake.

我們完成了大西洋重組，啟用了特立尼達的下一波項目並確保了長期液化天然氣股權承購。

We accessed 44 exploration blocks in Gulf of Mexico, Canada, Brazil and Deepwater Trinidad. Our unit production cost was around $6 per barrel of oil equivalent, in line with our 2025 target. And proudly under aim 4, we met our first goal of deploying our methane measurement approach across all our existing major operated upstream oil and gas assets by the end of 2023, a very important milestone.

我們進入了墨西哥灣、加拿大、巴西和特立尼達深水區的 44 個勘探區塊。我們的單位生產成本約為每桶油當量 6 美元，符合我們 2025 年的目標。在目標 4 下，我們實現了第一個目標，即到 2023 年底在所有現有主要營運的上游石油和天然氣資產中部署甲烷測量方法，這是一個非常重要的里程碑。

Turning to our transition growth engines in Bioenergy. We increased our biofuels production by 18% year-on-year and biogas supply volumes by 80% year-on-year, reflecting the uplift from Archaea.

轉向我們在生物能源領域的轉型成長引擎。我們的生物燃料產量年增了 18%，沼氣供應量年增了 80%，這反映了古細菌的成長。

In convenience, we delivered 60% growth year-on-year in gross margin, including the contribution of TravelCenters of Americas. Excluding TravelCenters, we've maintained strong underlying growth of 9% year-on-year, building on the average 9% per annum over the previous 3 years despite recessionary forces.

在便利性方面，我們的毛利率年增了 60%，其中包括美洲旅遊中心的貢獻。不包括 TravelCenters，儘管存在經濟衰退的影響，我們仍保持了 9% 的強勁基本同比增長，在過去 3 年平均每年 9% 的基礎上繼續增長。

In EV charging, we are rapidly building scale and demonstrating profitability in Germany and our JV in China. Energy we were sold rose by 150% year-on-year, supported by a 35% increase in the number of EV charge points and increasing utilization.

在電動車充電領域，我們正在德國和中國的合資企業迅速擴大規模並展示獲利能力。在電動車充電站數量增加 35% 和利用率提高的支持下，我們銷售的能源年增 150%。

Importantly, our charging customers in the U.K. are spending more in our shops than our fuel customers. This gives us further confidence in our fast on-the-go business model.

重要的是，我們在英國的充電客戶在我們商店的消費比我們的燃油客戶更多。這讓我們對快速移動的業務模式更加充滿信心。

We grew our hydrogen pipeline to 2.9 million tonnes per annum. Our focus this decade is on blue hydrogen and decarbonization of our refineries while laying the foundation for green hydrogen production towards the end of the decade.

我們的氫氣管道產量已增加至每年 290 萬噸。我們這十年的重點是藍色氫和煉油廠的脫碳，同時為本世紀末的綠氫生產奠定基礎。

In renewables and power, we grew our renewables pipeline to 58.3 gigawatts net to BP, including the offshore wind award in Germany, Lightsource bp's pipeline and our onshore renewables projects supporting hydrogen in Australia. And we have agreed to take full ownership of Lightsource bp, one of the top solar providers globally, a fantastic business with a track record of delivering equity returns in the mid-teens over the past few years with our development flip model.

在再生能源和電力領域，我們將向 BP 提供的可再生能源淨輸送量增至 58.3 吉瓦，其中包括德國離岸風電項目、Lightsource bp 的管道以及支援澳洲氫能的陸上再生能源項目。我們也同意完全擁有 Lightsource bp，它是全球頂級太陽能供應商之一，這是一家出色的企業，在過去幾年中透過我們的開發翻轉模型實現了十幾歲左右的股權回報。

Integrating all of these are trading and shipping businesses, as I described earlier. This is our strategy in action, and we have more to come in '24 and '25 that I'll describe later. But for now, let me hand over to Kate to take you through our fourth quarter results and our financial frame. Kate?

正如我之前所描述的，所有這些業務的整合就是貿易和航運業務。這是我們正在實施的策略，我們將在 24 和 25 年推出更多策略，稍後我將對此進行描述。但現在，讓我請凱特向您介紹我們的第四季業績和財務框架。凱特？

Thanks, Murray, and good morning, everyone. I've been here once before, and I echo Murray sentiment. It is an honor to speak with you as CFO.

謝謝穆雷，大家早安。我以前來過這裡一次，我也同意莫瑞的觀點。很榮幸能以財務長的身份與您交談。

Let's turn to our results. BP's focus on delivery supported another quarter of strong underlying operational and financial performance. Our upstream volume was 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, in line with our guidance.

讓我們看看我們的結果。 BP 對交付的關注支撐了又一個季度強勁的基本營運和財務表現。我們的上游產量為每天 230 萬桶油當量，符合我們的指導。

Gas and low carbon energy production was around 900,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. The underlying financial result was around $500 million higher than the previous quarter, largely reflecting a strong gas marketing and trading result and stronger gas realizations, driven by higher gas prices. This was offset by a noncash write-off of around $300 million, largely related to the exit from a production sharing contract in Senegal and by lower production.

天然氣和低碳能源產量約為每天 90 萬桶石油當量。基本財務業績比上一季高出約 5 億美元，主要反映了強勁的天然氣行銷和交易業績以及天然氣價格上漲推動的天然氣變現強勁。這被約 3 億美元的非現金沖銷所抵消，主要與塞內加爾產量分成合約的退出和產量下降有關。

In oil production and operations, production was 1.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. The underlying result was around $400 million higher than the previous quarter, largely reflecting favorable price lag impacts in the Gulf of Mexico and UAE.

石油生產經營方面，日產量為140萬桶油當量。基本結果比上一季高出約 4 億美元，主要反映了墨西哥灣和阿聯酋有利的價格滯後影響。

In customers and products, the underlying result was around $1.3 billion lower than the previous quarter. Looking at the businesses. In our customers' business, the underlying profit was $880 million, around $200 million higher than the previous quarter. The result benefited from stronger-than-expected fuel margins driven by a decline in supply and a one-off positive effect of around $100 million. This was partly offset by lower seasonal marketing volumes as well as higher costs in support of our transition growth engines.

在客戶和產品方面，基本結果比上一季減少了約 13 億美元。看看企業。在我們客戶的業務中，基本利潤為 8.8 億美元，比上一季增加約 2 億美元。這一結果得益於供應下降導致燃料利潤率強於預期以及約 1 億美元的一次性正面影響。這在一定程度上被季節性行銷量下降以及支持我們轉型成長引擎的成本上升所抵消。

In products, the underlying loss was $80 million compared to $1.4 billion profit in the third quarter. The result reflects significantly lower industry refining margins, albeit with a smaller decrease in realized refining margins because of wider North American heavy crude oil differentials. In addition, as we guided, there was a higher level of turnaround activity, including a full site turnaround at Castellon. The oil trading result was weak compared to the very strong result in the third quarter.

在產品方面，基本虧損為 8,000 萬美元，而第三季利潤為 14 億美元。這一結果反映了產業煉油利潤率顯著下降，儘管由於北美重質原油價差擴大，實際煉油利潤率下降幅度較小。此外，正如我們所指導的，還有更高水準的周轉活動，包括卡斯特利翁的全廠週轉。與第三季非常強勁的結果相比，石油交易結果疲軟。

Results from our other businesses and corporate segment improved around $200 million on the previous quarter, largely due to foreign exchange gains. And as we've said before, results in this segment do vary quarter-on-quarter.

我們其他業務和企業部門的業績比上一季提高了約 2 億美元，這主要歸功於外匯收益。正如我們之前所說，該細分市場的結果確實每季都有所不同。

Reflecting these factors, we reported an underlying replacement cost profit before interest and taxes of $6.1 billion. After interest and taxes, we reported group underlying replacement cost profit of $3 billion.

考慮到這些因素，我們報告的息稅前基本重置成本利潤為 61 億美元。扣除利息和稅費後，我們報告的集團基本重置成本利潤為 30 億美元。

Our underlying effective tax rate increased in the fourth quarter to 42%, mainly reflecting profit mix effects. And on an IFRS basis, we recorded net adverse adjusting items of $1.5 billion after tax, primarily related to impairments, reflecting changes in the group's price, discount rate, activity phasing and other assumptions, partially offset by fair value accounting effects.

第四季我們的基本有效稅率上升至42%，主要反映了利潤組合效應。根據國際財務報告準則，我們記錄了稅後15 億美元的淨不利調整項目，主要與減損相關，反映了集團價格、折現率、活動階段和其他假設的變化，部分被公允價值會計影響所抵消。

We also recorded inventory holding losses of $1.2 billion during the quarter. Taking into account these items, we reported a headline profit of around $400 million.

本季我們也記錄了 12 億美元的庫存持有損失。考慮到這些項目，我們報告的整體利潤約為 4 億美元。

Turning to cash flow and the balance sheet. Operating cash flow was $9.4 billion in the fourth quarter, around $600 million higher than the third quarter. This was largely due to a higher EBITDA and lower cash taxes compared to the third quarter related to the timing of tax installment payments.

轉向現金流和資產負債表。第四季營運現金流為 94 億美元，比第三季增加約 6 億美元。這主要是由於與第三季度相比，息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤 (EBITDA) 更高，而與分期付款時間相關的現金稅更低。

Operating cash flow included an underlying working capital release of $2.1 billion, largely associated with the delivery of LNG cargoes. Capital expenditure was $4.7 billion, which is $1.1 billion higher than the third quarter. This brought full year CapEx to $16.3 billion, which is broadly in line with our guidance.

營運現金流包括 21 億美元的基本營運資金釋放，主要與液化天然氣貨物的交付有關。資本支出為 47 億美元，比第三季增加 11 億美元。這使得全年資本支出達到 163 億美元，大致符合我們的指引。

Divestment proceeds were $300 million, bringing the full year to $1.8 billion. That's slightly lower than our guidance. And the $1.5 billion share buyback program we announced with the third quarter 2023 results was completed on the second of February. Our balance sheet continues to strengthen with net debt reducing to $20.9 billion. That's the lowest level for a decade.

撤資收益為 3 億美元，使全年收益達 18 億美元。這略低於我們的指導。我們在 2023 年第三季業績中宣布的 15 億美元股票回購計畫已於 2 月 2 日完成。我們的資產負債表持續增強，淨債務減少至 209 億美元。這是十年來的最低水準。

As you saw this morning, we've announced a 4Q dividend of $0.0727 per ordinary share, an increase of 10% compared to last year. And as Murray mentioned earlier, we announced $1.7 billion of share buybacks from 2023 surplus cash flow. As you can see on the chart, in total, we've now bought back over 16% of our issued share capital, since we started our buyback program in 2021. To sum up, it's been another good year of delivering against our financial frame.

正如您今天早上所看到的，我們宣布第四季度股息為每股普通股 0.0727 美元，比去年增加 10%。正如莫瑞先前提到的，我們宣布從 2023 年的盈餘現金流中回購 17 億美元的股票。正如您在圖表中看到的，自 2021 年啟動回購計畫以來，我們現在總共回購了超過 16% 的已發行股本。總而言之，今年又是我們財務框架表現良好的一年。

Let me now take you through the guidance on our financial frame for the next 2 years. Our 5 priorities remain unchanged. Given the strength of our underlying financial performance, the disciplined approach to strengthening the balance sheet over the last few years and our confidence in our drive towards 2025, we now have the capacity to update our financial frame and provide clear guidance for the next 2 years through 2025. We're tightening our capital expenditure guidance, enhancing our share buyback guidance, all while continuing to maintain a strong balance and a strong investment-grade credit rating. As Murray said earlier, we're focused on simplifying things where we can.

現在讓我向您介紹我們未來兩年的財務框架指南。我們的 5 個優先事項保持不變。鑑於我們的基礎財務表現強勁、過去幾年加強資產負債表的嚴格方法以及我們對邁向 2025 年的信心，我們現在有能力更新我們的財務框架並為未來 2 年提供明確的指導到2025 年。我們正在收緊資本支出指導，增強股票回購指導，同時繼續保持強勁的平衡和強大的投資等級信用評級。正如默里早些時候所說，我們致力於盡可能簡化事情。

Our first priority remains a resilient dividend accommodated within a balance point of $40 per barrel Brent, $11 RMM and $3 Henry Hub. With capacity for an increase in the dividend per ordinary share of around 4% per annum at around $60 a barrel, subject, of course, to the Board's discretion each quarter.

我們的首要任務仍然是在布蘭特原油每桶 40 美元、RMM 11 美元和亨利中心 3 美元的平衡點內提供彈性股息。每股普通股股息每年增加約 4%，達到每桶 60 美元左右，當然，這取決於董事會每季的酌情權。

Our second priority is our strong investment-grade credit rating. We're targeting to further progress our credit metrics within the A-grade credit range through the cycle. We're not targeting a AA credit rating.

我們的第二要務是我們強大的投資等級信用評級。我們的目標是在整個週期內進一步提高我們的信用指標在 A 級信用範圍內。我們的目標不是 AA 信用評級。

Third and fourth, we plan to invest with discipline. We're driven by value and focused on delivering returns at least at our hurdle rates across our transition growth engines and our oil, gas and refining businesses. Capital expenditure is now expected to be around $16 billion per year through 2025, including inorganics.

第三和第四，我們計劃有紀律地進行投資。我們以價值為驅動力，並專注於在轉型成長引擎以及石油、天然氣和煉油業務中至少以我們的最低預期回報率提供回報。目前預計到 2025 年，每年資本支出約 160 億美元，其中包括無機物。

And finally, to share buybacks. As I said, we're simplifying and enhancing our guidance. For the first half of 2024, we're committed to announcing $3.5 billion. That's $1.75 billion per quarter for each of 1Q and 2Q. This provides near-term predictability. And to be clear, this is in addition to the $1.75 billion share buyback we announced today for the fourth quarter of 2023.

最後，分享回購。正如我所說，我們正在簡化和加強我們的指導。我們承諾在 2024 年上半年投入 35 億美元。第一季和第二季各季度營收為 17.5 億美元。這提供了近期的可預測性。需要明確的是，這是我們今天宣布的 2023 年第四季 17.5 億美元股票回購的補充。

Over 2024 to '25, subject to maintaining a strong investment-grade credit rating, our expectation, assuming current market conditions, is to announce at least $14 billion of share buybacks in total. And on a point-forward basis, we're now committed to returning at least 80% of surplus cash flow. This is an enhancement to our previous guidance of 60%, and it's an affordable range underpinned by two things, the strength of our balance sheet and our confidence in the future performance of our business.

2024 年至 25 年間，在保持強勁的投資等級信用評級的前提下，假設當前市場狀況，我們預計將宣布總計至少 140 億美元的股票回購。從長遠來看，我們現在承諾返還至少 80% 的剩餘現金流。這比我們之前 60% 的指引有所提高，而且這是一個可以承受的範圍，有兩點支撐：我們的資產負債表實力以及我們對業務未來業績的信心。

Let me now close with a summary of our forward-looking guidance before I hand back to Murray. This slide is a little detailed, but it summarizes guidance for the full year ahead and the quarter ahead, and it's all in one place for you. I'm not going to read it line by line, but let me start just by highlighting some points in relation to the first quarter 2024 compared to the fourth quarter.

現在，在我回到默里之前，請允許我總結我們的前瞻性指導。這張投影片有點詳細，但它總結了未來全年和未來季度的指導，並且所有內容都集中在一個地方。我不會逐行閱讀它，但讓我先強調與 2024 年第一季和第四季相比相關的一些要點。

We expect upstream production to be higher. And customers, we expect seasonally lower volumes across most businesses and the absence of one-off positive impacts. Fuel margins remain sensitive to movements in cost of supply.

我們預計上游產量將會更高。對於客戶來說，我們預計大多數企業的銷售量會出現季節性下降，並且不會出現一次性的正面影響。燃料利潤率仍然對供應成本的變動敏感。

In products, we expect a significantly lower level of refinery turnaround activity. And in addition, we expect lower industry refining margins with a larger reduction in realized margins because of narrower North American heavy crude differentials.

在產品方面，我們預期煉油廠週轉活動水準將顯著降低。此外，由於北美重質原油價差收窄，我們預期產業煉油利潤率將下降，實現利潤率將大幅下降。

And with regard to the full year 2024, we expect this year's capital expenditure to be weighted to the first half, while our target of $2 billion to $3 billion of divestments and other proceeds is expected to be weighted to the second half.

至於2024年全年，我們預計今年的資本支出將加權到上半年，而我們20億至30億美元的撤資和其他收益的目標預計將加權到下半年。

And as Murray mentioned, our trading business has delivered on average an uplift of around 4% to group [ROACE] over the past 4 years. This slide forms part of some enhancements we're implementing to help the investment community.

正如 Murray 所提到的，在過去 4 年裡，我們的貿易業務為 [ROACE] 集團平均帶來了約 4% 的成長。這張投影片是我們為幫助投資界而實施的一些增強功能的一部分。

Starting with the first quarter 2024, we also plan to introduce a regular trading statement to provide our investors with up-to-date financial performance insights. Today's announcement and our updates to the financial frame, together with our detailed guidance, we hope provides more clarity for the market.

從 2024 年第一季開始，我們也計劃推出定期交易報表，為投資者提供最新的財務業績洞察。今天的公告和我們對財務框架的更新，以及我們的詳細指導，我們希望為市場提供更多清晰度。

And with that, I'll hand it back to Murray.

有了這個，我會把它交還給穆雷。

Thanks, Kate, nice to have her CFO, upgrade on the previous guy. Over the next 8 quarters, we're focused on delivering our 2025 targets, our drive to 2025. We are confident in achieving these for two reasons. First, we're clear on what businesses need to deliver. And second, we have strong momentum, as I've previously described.

謝謝，凱特，很高興有她的財務官，對以前的人進行了升級。在接下來的 8 個季度中，我們的重點是實現 2025 年的目標，我們的目標是實現 2025 年。我們有信心實現這些目標，原因有兩個。首先，我們清楚企業需要提供什麼。其次，正如我之前所描述的，我們擁有強烈的勢頭。

In oil and gas, we expect to start up 6 new major oil and gas projects, bring online 2 new central processing facilities in the Permian and BPX, checkmate and crossroads, I love their names. And equity and merchant supply to our LNG portfolio that underpins our 25 by '25 target. We'll continue to leverage our distinctive delivery model across project and operations to deliver plant reliability at around 96%, maintained base decline of 3% to 5% and $6 per barrel of oil equivalent unit production cost.

在石油和天然氣方面，我們預計將啟動6個新的大型石油和天然氣項目，在二疊紀和BPX、將死和十字路口上線2個新的中央處理設施，我喜歡它們的名字。我們的液化天然氣投資組合的股權和商業供應支撐著我們 25 年 25 世紀的目標。我們將繼續在整個專案和營運中利用我們獨特的交付模式，將工廠可靠性保持在 96% 左右，保持基礎下降 3% 至 5%，並將每桶石油當量單位生產成本控制在 6 美元。

In refining, we expect to drive greater competitiveness and value through our digitization and business improvement plans, including maintaining Solomon first quartile net cash margin.

在煉油方面，我們希望透過數位化和業務改進計劃來提高競爭力和價值，包括維持所羅門第一四分位數的淨現金利潤率。

In Bioenergy, we expect to more than double our biofuels coprocessing volumes to around 20,000 barrels per day in 2025, investing in our advantaged refining portfolio.

在生物能源領域，我們預計到 2025 年，我們的生物燃料協同處理量將增加一倍以上，達到每天約 20,000 桶，投資於我們優勢的煉油產品組合。

In biogas, we started about 5 gas plants in 2023, and Archaea expects to start up between 15 to 20 new plants per year through 2025.

在沼氣方面，我們於 2023 年啟動了約 5 個天然氣工廠，Archaea 預計到 2025 年每年將啟動 15 至 20 個新工廠。

In convenience and EV charging, we plan to deliver EBITDA of more than $1.5 billion in 2025. In convenience, we are focused on the rollout of strategic convenience sites supported by customer offers, strategic partnerships and digital investments and integrating TravelCenters of America, realizing deal synergies and expect to grow EBITDA to around $800 million in 2025 with convenience, a significant contributor.

在便利性和電動車充電方面，我們計劃在2025 年實現超過15 億美元的EBITDA。在便利方面，我們專注於推出由客戶優惠、戰略合作夥伴關係和數位投資支持的戰略便利網站，並整合TravelCenters of America，實現交易協同效應，預計到 2025 年，便利性將 EBITDA 增至 8 億美元左右，這是一個重要的貢獻者。

In EV charging, we plan to grow energy sales across our 4 key markets and expect to deliver positive EBITDA in 2025. In Castrol, we expect to drive EBITDA through volume growth, cost efficiencies and emerging new business areas.

在電動車充電方面，我們計劃在 4 個主要市場增加能源銷售，並預計在 2025 年實現正 EBITDA。在嘉實多，我們預計透過銷售成長、成本效率和新興業務領域來推動 EBITDA。

In hydrogen and renewables and power, we will remain disciplined and focused on value creation, establishing the capabilities and foundations for scalable and integrated businesses in the decades to come. Our recent announcement of the acquisition of Lightsource bp is a great example.

在氫能、再生能源和電力領域，我們將保持紀律並專注於價值創造，為未來幾十年的可擴展和綜合業務奠定能力和基礎。我們最近宣布收購 Lightsource bp 就是一個很好的例子。

We will continue to leverage the benefits of our integrated business model. We are advancing our technology and innovation agenda, moving past pilots and use cases to building our own custom generative AI products, and we are getting into the hands of our global workforce. And our world-class trading business will continue to be the core of integrated and optimizing across our energy value chains to deliver higher margins and lower emissions. All in service are our target to grow EBITDA to $46 billion to $49 billion in 2025.

我們將繼續利用我們綜合業務模式的優勢。我們正在推進我們的技術和創新議程，將過去的試點和用例轉向建立我們自己的客製化生成人工智慧產品，並且我們正在將其交到全球員工的手中。我們世界一流的貿易業務將繼續成為我們能源價值鏈整合和優化的核心，以實現更高的利潤和更低的排放。我們的目標是到 2025 年將所有服務的 EBITDA 成長到 460 億美元至 490 億美元。

Let me then sum up what you've heard and we'll get to your questions. 4 years in, our destination is unchanged. IOC to IEC, and we remain confident in the strategy. At its core is a laser-like focus on growing the value of bp, and underpinning this, we're going to be focused on 6 near-term priorities: first, improving safety, our first priority and reducing emissions. Second, driving further focus into the business. That means actively managing our portfolio and continued high grading and focusing on activities that create the most value.

然後讓我總結一下您所聽到的內容，然後我們將回答您的問題。 4年過去了，我們的目的地沒有改變。 IOC 到 IEC，我們對這項策略仍然充滿信心。其核心是像雷射一樣專注於增加 bp 的價值，並以此為基礎，我們將重點關注 6 個近期優先事項：第一，提高安全性，這是我們的首要任務和減少排放。二是進一步聚焦業務。這意味著積極管理我們的投資組合併持續高評級並專注於創造最大價值的活動。

Third, delivering the next wave of efficiency, an area where I see a huge opportunity. For example, using global capability centers and our industry-leading digitization and technology expertise to increase margin and decrease spend. What some of you saw in Denver is just the tip of the iceberg, and we are now deploying that capability into the downstream.

第三，提供下一波效率，我認為這是一個巨大機會的領域。例如，利用全球能力中心以及我們領先業界的數位化和技術專業知識來提高利潤並減少支出。你們中的一些人在丹彿看到的只是冰山一角，我們現在正在將該功能部署到下游。

These efficiencies will feed into our fourth priority, that is progressing the next set of growth projects that we expect to sanction across the next 2 years. These projects provide growth through the end of the decade and into the next.

這些效率將成為我們的第四個優先事項，即推進我們預計在未來兩年內批准的下一組成長項目。這些項目將在本世紀末和下一個十年提供成長。

And fifth, as you heard from Kate, we have disciplined investment allocation at the core of our financial frame, which is focused on optimizing return on capital employed. And finally, our sixth priority, we remain committed to growing shareholder returns including now returning at least 80% of surplus cash flow to shareholders through share buybacks.

第五，正如您從凱特那裡聽到的，我們在財務框架的核心進行了嚴格的投資分配，重點是優化所用資本回報率。最後，我們的第六個優先事項是，我們仍然致力於提高股東回報，包括現在透過股票回購將至少 80% 的剩餘現金流返還給股東。

We know exactly what we need to do, and some of the key measures are up on the slide. You can monitor our progress quarter-to-quarter as we drive to 2025.

我們確切地知道我們需要做什麼，一些關鍵措施已經在幻燈片上。隨著我們邁向 2025 年，您可以逐季監控我們的進展。

In conclusion, we're investing in today's oil and gas system and building out tomorrow's all in service of growing the value of BP. The direction is the same, but we're going to deliver as a simpler, more focused, higher value company that pragmatically adapts with demand and societal needs. And we look forward to updating you as we move through the year.

總而言之，我們投資當今的石油和天然氣系統並建造明天的石油和天然氣系統，一切都是為了增加 BP 的價值。方向是相同的，但我們將成為一家更簡單、更專注、更高價值的公司，務實地適應需求和社會需求。我們期待在這一年向您通報最新情況。

With that, Kate, and I will be delighted to take your questions. Thank you.

凱特和我將很高興回答您的問題。謝謝。

No questions online yet. Let's see, where should we start. Michele, why don't we start with you, please. Limit yourself to 2 questions, please, if you can. That wasn't directed personally at you, Michele.

還沒有線上提問。讓我們看看，我們應該從哪裡開始。米歇爾，我們為什麼不從你開始呢？如果可以的話，請限制自己問兩個問題。這不是針對你個人的，米歇爾。

Of course. It will only be 2. And congratulations on the strong results. Two questions, if I may. The first one, when you talk about an A range credit metrics through the cycle, is there a simplistic way to bring it down to a net debt level that you would like to achieve in the course of the coming years?

當然。只會是 2。恭喜你取得了優異的成績。如果可以的話，有兩個問題。第一個，當您談論整個週期的 A 範圍信用指標時，是否有一種簡單的方法可以將其降低到您希望在未來幾年實現的淨債務水平？

And my second question is on the transition growth engines. Clearly, you've got a very ambitious target in terms of EBITDA in 2025. It's more than a tripling of EBITDA, which goes well beyond the volume growth. I was wondering if you could help us a bit more understand where that increase in EBITDA margins would come from? Is it cost? Is it price? Is it cost-cutting and integration of the likes of Lightsource bp?

我的第二個問題是關於轉型成長引擎。顯然，您在 2025 年 EBITDA 方面製定了一個非常雄心勃勃的目標。它超過了 EBITDA 的三倍，遠遠超出了銷售成長。我想知道您是否可以幫助我們更多地了解 EBITDA 利潤率的成長來自何處？是成本嗎？是價格嗎？是削減成本並整合 Lightsource bp 等公司嗎？

Fantastic. Thanks, Michele. I'll take the second question first, and then Kate, I'll hand over to you for the balance sheet question.

極好的。謝謝，米歇爾。我先回答第二個問題，然後凱特，我會把資產負債表問題交給你。

On the TGs, yes, it's an aggressive growth profile from around $1 billion in 2023 to $3 billion to $4 billion by 2025. If you think about what we've done over the past few years, we've bought an awful lot of companies and now need to bring them in, standardize them and drive that growth through them. So the march from $1 billion to $3 billion to $4 billion, it starts with Archaea. We went slow on purpose to get the design right for rapid replication. We're now in action. We've got 5 plants online. We'll do 4 or 5 a quarter now, marching forward over the next 8 quarters.

在TG 方面，是的，這是一個激進的成長模式，從2023 年的10 億美元左右增長到2025 年的30 億美元到40 億美元。如果你想想我們過去幾年所做的事情，我們已經收購了許多公司現在需要引入它們，標準化它們並透過它們推動成長。因此，從 10 億美元到 30 億美元再到 40 億美元的進程，是從古生菌開始的。我們故意放慢速度，以使設計適合快速複製。我們現在正在行動。我們有 5 家工廠在線上。現在我們每季會做 4 到 5 個，並在接下來的 8 個季度繼續前進。

In TravelCenters of America, we brought it in. We're starting to deliver the synergies inside that. We see tremendous opportunity to introduce biofuels into it to enhance margins. We're probably going to beat the synergies on that. The company was not as efficient as we thought it might have been so that delivers more opportunity as well. We'll have Lightsource bp coming in that will allow us to grow that business and absorb that EBITDA as well.

在美國旅遊中心，我們引入了它。我們開始發揮其中的協同作用。我們看到了引入生物燃料以提高利潤的巨大機會。我們可能會超越這方面的綜效。該公司的效率並不像我們想像的那麼高，因此也提供了更多機會。我們將讓 Lightsource bp 加入，這將使我們能夠發展該業務並吸收 EBITDA。

And in Emma's business, we do continue to see really strong growth despite recessionary forces and convenience, 9% year-on-year despite recessions, despite COVID, you name it. We've got a fantastic team that we brought in, that's really driving growth in that space as well.

在艾瑪的業務中，儘管有經濟衰退的力量和便利性，但我們確實繼續看到真正強勁的成長，儘管有經濟衰退，儘管有新冠疫情，但同比增長了 9%。我們引進了一支出色的團隊，這也確實推動了該領域的成長。

EV, earnings positive in 2 countries. We'll get everything to breakeven by 2025 as well. And of course, we'll tighten. We'll really tighten the focus on origination, not spend as much money on origination and really focus on what we're going to deliver moving forward.

電動車，兩個國家的獲利為正。到 2025 年，我們也將達到收支平衡。當然，我們會收緊。我們將真正加強對原創的關注，不會在原創上花費太多資金，而是真正專注於我們未來將要交付的內容。

So I feel comfortable. It's a bold target to hit 3 or 4, but I feel comfortable with it based on what we've done and I look forward to reporting back to you on that over the coming quarters. Kate?

所以我覺得很舒服。達到 3 或 4 是一個大膽的目標，但根據我們所做的事情，我對此感到滿意，我期待在未來幾個季度向您報告這一情況。凱特？

Thanks. Michele, thanks for your question. Let me just step back a minute and just make sure everyone is still very clear that the balance sheet and the credit rating, the stronger investment grade credit rating remains the second priority. That's fundamental to us.

謝謝。米歇爾，謝謝你的問題。讓我退後一步，確保每個人都非常清楚資產負債表和信用評級，更強的投資等級信用評級仍然是第二要務。這對我們來說至關重要。

I think resilience of the company from a financial position is more than just net debt. And I like the way that the credit rating agencies think about the ratio of the cash that we're generating versus the total of our debt like liabilities. I think that's a good measure of resilience. The change we're making today, which is moving away from targeting progress within the rating to being clear around progress within the metrics is I've got control over that.

我認為公司財務狀況的彈性不僅僅是淨債務。我喜歡信用評等機構考慮我們產生的現金與債務等負債總額的比率的方式。我認為這是衡量彈性的一個很好的指標。我們今天所做的改變，即從以評級中的目標進展為目標，轉向明確指標中的進展，這是我可以控制的。

We've got a great relationship with the rating agents. We speak to them very regularly, but we can't control the rating outcome and neither should we. We did get upgraded by Fitch in November. We remain on positive outlook with S&P and Moody's. So let's see. We are well within the metrics for an upgrade, but that's it for them to decide.

我們與評級機構有著良好的關係。我們經常與他們交談，但我們無法控制評級結果，我們也不應該控制。 11 月我們確實獲得了惠譽的升級。我們對標準普爾和穆迪的前景保持樂觀。那麼讓我們來看看。我們完全符合升級的標準，但這就是他們的決定。

But from my perspective, it's around making sure that we are maintaining a balance sheet that is resilient, allows us to see through volatility, allows us to tolerate a perspective of environment that is going to move but also cash flows that are going to move around within quarter. So you've seen from the guidance where we're guiding to heavier CapEx in the first half and heavier divestments in the second half. You're going to see our net debt move around. That's okay.

但從我的角度來看，這是為了確保我們維持一個有彈性的資產負債表，讓我們能夠洞察波動性，讓我們能夠容忍環境的變化以及現金流的變化季度內。因此，您從指導教授中看到，我們指導上半年加大資本支出，下半年加大撤資。你會看到我們的淨債務發生變化。沒關係。

We strengthened it so significantly in the last few years, down to this level, which is the lowest in a decade. That gives us a lot of confidence that we can tolerate that level of momentum. So I'm not going to put a net debt target out. I'm going to tell you I'm comfortable with where it sits right now and our ability to tolerate movement, and remind you that we will continue to obviously be putting around 20% of our surplus cash flow to the balance sheet. So it's going to continue to deleverage just at a slightly slower pace.

過去幾年我們大幅加強了這一水平，降至十年來的最低水平。這讓我們充滿信心，相信我們能夠承受這種程度的動力。所以我不會設定淨債務目標。我要告訴你，我對目前的狀況以及我們容忍變動的能力感到滿意，並提醒你，我們顯然將繼續將剩餘現金流的 20% 左右放入資產負債表。因此，它將繼續以稍慢的速度去槓桿化。

It's Biraj Borkhataria, RBC. I've got two questions. The first one is on your EBITDA targets over the -- more for 2030 than 2025. In the footnote, when you presented that in the past, you'll say CapEx at the higher end of the range. And in '22, you were at 16%, '23, 16% and now you're guiding to the middle for '24 and '25, so basically half the plan. So could you talk about the sort of, let's say, EBITDA sacrifice for not spending that extra $2 billion, and where it's coming from and how to think about that?

我是 RBC 的 Biraj Borkhataria。我有兩個問題。第一個是 2030 年的 EBITDA 目標，比 2025 年的目標要多。在腳註中，當您過去介紹這一目標時，您會說資本支出處於該範圍的較高端。在 22 年，你的比例是 16%，23 年，16%，現在你在 24 年和 25 年引導到中間，所以基本上是計劃的一半。那麼，您能否談談由於不額外支出 20 億美元而導致的 EBITDA 犧牲，以及它從何而來以及如何考慮這一點？

And then the second question is on the dividend. So you referenced the 4% at 60, are you looking to explicitly link that to the buyback scheme? You're obviously buying back shares faster than any of your peers as your chart showing? Or do you see the most 2 separate things and your preference for the buyback here?

第二個問題是關於股息。所以你提到了 60 時的 4%，你是否希望明確地將其與回購計畫連結起來？如圖表所示，您回購股票的速度顯然比任何同業都快？或者您看到了最獨立的兩件事以及您對回購的偏好？

Great. I'll tackle the first one. Kate, you grab the second one.

偉大的。我將解決第一個問題。凱特，你抓住第二個。

So the long-term guidance on capital frame has not changed, $14 billion to $80 billion through the decade. What we are changing is we're getting more disciplined with '24 and '25 year, tightening in on a $16 billion range for these 2 years.

因此，資本框架的長期指引沒有改變，十年來為 140 億美元至 800 億美元。我們正在改變的是，我們對「24 年」和「25 年」變得更加嚴格，這兩年的預算範圍收緊在 160 億美元的範圍內。

I think the way that I relate to this, Biraj, is that we've done a lot of acquisitions recently, EDF, Archaea, TravelCenters of America, Lightsource. These are big transactions. They represent north of 2% of our overall value, which is similar to some of the big transactions you've seen in the United States from some of our competitors on an equity basis. And, it's injecting a lot of people into the business.

Biraj，我認為我對此的看法是，我們最近進行了大量收購，包括 EDF、Archaea、TravelCenters of America、Lightsource。這些都是大交易。它們占我們總價值的 2% 以上，這與您在美國看到的我們的一些競爭對手在股權基礎上進行的一些大型交易類似。而且，它也為這個行業注入了許多人。

19,000 alone inside TravelCenters of America. So it's time now to pause on acquisitions. We might do a few more, but to pause on them and instead focus on that hard work of integrating the systems, the people, the processes, the cultures of these entities, and that's really what we're focused on right now.

光是美國旅遊中心就有 19,000 人。因此，現在是暫停收購的時候了。我們可能會做更多的事情，但要暫停一下，而是專注於整合這些實體的系統、人員、流程和文化的艱苦工作，這才是我們現在真正關注的事情。

As far as an EBITDA sacrifice, I remain very comfortable with our 2025 targets I think in a $0.20, $0.30. We haven't really deviated from the '25 to '30 time frame so it's not anything material. So I think the latest numbers adjusted give or take, on our 46 to 49 target in 2025. We're at about 44. So I'm feeling pretty good about that as well. Strong, strong growth inside the upstream. And so I feel comfortable about '25. No change to 2030 at this stage. And in due course, we'll update the market on what we're thinking about for targets for 2030. Those, of course, are aims right now, Biraj. Hope that helps. And over to Kate.

至於 EBITDA 犧牲，我對 2025 年的目標仍然非常滿意，我認為是 0.20 美元、0.30 美元。我們並沒有真正偏離 25 年到 30 年的時間框架，所以這不是什麼重要的事情。所以我認為最新的數字調整後的結果是，我們 2025 年的目標是 46 到 49。我們的目標是 44。所以我對此也感覺很好。上游強勁，成長強勁。所以我對 25 歲感到很舒服。現階段 2030 年沒有變動。在適當的時候，我們將向市場通報我們對 2030 年目標的想法。當然，這些是目前的目標，Biraj。希望有幫助。接下來是凱特。

Thanks, Biraj. So on dividend, look, making sure that it's a resilient dividend, is really important to us, which is why we are keeping it as our first priority in the financial frame today. The reason we haven't created and I don't think we should create a link to share buyback is, of course, with the share buyback progress, the share count reduction occurs over time.

謝謝，比拉傑。因此，在股息方面，確保股息具有彈性，對我們來說非常重要，這就是為什麼我們將其作為當今財務框架的首要任務。我們沒有創建並且我認為我們不應該創建股票回購連結的原因當然是，隨著股票回購的進展，股票數量會隨著時間的推移而減少。

We've got a very significant decrease in our share count reduction to date. That's going to continue, given what we've just laid out today. That gives the Board an ability to move the dividend per share up. But of course, the Board is going to take into consideration facts and circumstances every quarter, as it looks at the dividend, which will be depending on cash flow generation to date, what the outlook looks like, environment momentum.

迄今為止，我們的股份數量減少幅度非常顯著。鑑於我們今天剛提出的內容，這種情況將繼續下去。這使董事會有能力提高每股股息。但當然，董事會將每季考慮事實和情況，因為它將考慮股息，這將取決於迄今為止的現金流量產生、前景情況和環境動力。

And they will take that decision as and when we get to each quarter. I don't think linking it to a particular buyback share count reduction is helpful because it removes flexibility. We want to retain flexibility so that when we're considering it as a Board, we can take into consideration that basket of considerations that will allow us to make the right decision for the company and the shareholders.

當我們到達每個季度時，他們將做出決定。我認為將其與特定的回購股份數量減少聯繫起來沒有幫助，因為它消除了靈活性。我們希望保持靈活性，以便當我們考慮董事會時，我們可以考慮一攬子考慮因素，使我們能夠為公司和股東做出正確的決定。

I think balance point is the key, isn't it? The thing that we feel really, really anchored to is that balance point of affordability on the dividend at [40, 11 and 3]. And of course, share count reduction helps drive that balance point down, but balance point is what we're obsessed about.

我認為平衡點是關鍵，不是嗎？我們覺得真正非常重要的是股息負擔能力的平衡點[40、11和3]。當然，股票數量的減少有助於降低平衡點，但平衡點才是我們所關注的。

Chris?

克里斯？

Chris Kuplent from Bank of America. Two quick questions. Murray, you've mentioned in your speech, Aker BP and some of the value creation you've now achieved off balance sheet with Angola as well. And I wonder whether you can contrast against that, how you're bringing Lightsource into fully your realm of control? We've seen the asset swap with Equinor, TA and all those acquisitions were fully owned, fully in control. So maybe you can compare and contrast a little bit why it matters to you in those situations?

美國銀行的克里斯·庫普倫特。兩個簡單的問題。 Murray，您在演講中提到了 Aker BP 以及您現在在安哥拉實現的資產負債表外的一些價值創造。我想知道你是否可以比較一下，你是如何將 Lightsource 完全納入你的控制範圍的？我們已經看到了與 Equinor、TA 的資產交換，所有這些收購都是完全擁有、完全控制的。所以也許你可以比較和對比為什麼在這些情況下它對你很重要？

And my second question, Kate, I noticed the $14 billion 2-year guidance is based on current market conditions. Where do you -- how do you feel about current market conditions? I noticed that, yes, refining margins have come down a lot, but they still sit above your balance point comment, Brent, likewise. Give us a little bit of a feel how comfortable that current market condition comment can be interpreted?

我的第二個問題，凱特，我注意到 140 億美元的兩年指導是基於當前的市場狀況。您對當前的市場狀況有何看法？我注意到，是的，煉油利潤已經下降了很多，但它們仍然高於你的平衡點評論，布倫特，同樣。讓我們感受一下當前市場狀況評論的解讀有多舒服？

Yes. Great. Okay. Chris, I'll start and Kate, can go second. So Aker BP, a fantastic transaction, unique circumstances associated with it. We were in declining assets late in life, made sense to exit the basin. That north -- the counterpart was in growth mode, but they needed cash generation to be able to grow. They just didn't have enough cash generation themselves. So we found after many years of discussions that we could bring those two companies together and create something pretty special.

是的。偉大的。好的。克里斯，我先開始，凱特，第二個。因此，Aker BP 是一項出色的交易，並且有與之相關的獨特環境。我們晚年的資產不斷下降，退出盆地是有道理的。北方的對手正處於成長模式，但他們需要產生現金才能成長。他們自己只是沒有足夠的現金產生能力。因此，經過多年的討論，我們發現我們可以將這兩家公司合併在一起，創造出一些非常特別的東西。

I don't know what the current numbers are, but we -- it was worth about $1 billion when we did the transaction. I think it's up around $3 billion or $4 billion now. So tremendous value creation for both sides. No loser inside that one.

我不知道目前的數字是多少，但當我們進行交易時，它的價值約為 10 億美元。我認為現在大約上漲了 30 億或 40 億美元。為雙方創造了巨大的價值。裡面沒有失敗者。

With Lightsource bp, we had a partner that's a private individual. They have grown and scaled this business tremendously, but they've reached the ability -- they've reached their max ability to finance this. So it's a little bit like the Aker BP situation where they didn't have enough cash to grow. So this was the moment in time for them to cash out for us to take over Lightsource bp. It has a couple of advantages for us to structure it this way right now.

對於 Lightsource bp，我們有一個私人合作夥伴。他們已經極大地發展和擴大了這項業務，但他們已經達到了為其融資的最大能力。所以這有點像 Aker BP 的情況，他們沒有足夠的現金來發展。因此，現在正是他們為我們兌現收購 Lightsource bp 的時刻。我們現在以這種方式建造它有幾個優點。

Coral has a fantastic trading business and demand for natural gas coupled with solar and battery technology continues to grow and grow and grow. We're seeing some really big demand coming out, especially from cloud providers, who have GenAI. Just the demand curves are asymptotic, is that the right word? I don't know. Whatever the right word is, huge, huge demand for these things. So being able to control that entity, package these things together and provide those trading options or those packages of energy is really important.

Coral 擁有出色的貿易業務，對天然氣以及太陽能和電池技術的需求不斷增長。我們看到了一些非常大的需求，特別是來自擁有 GenAI 的雲端供應商。只是需求曲線是漸近的，這個字正確嗎？我不知道。無論正確的字詞是什麼，對這些東西的巨大需求。因此，能夠控制該實體，將這些東西打包在一起並提供那些交易選項或那些能源包非常重要。

The second thing is, if green hydrogen does move, you're going to want control of the developer if that happens. Why? So you avoid giving margin away to third-party developers that can be quite high. So at this moment in time, it makes an awful lot of sense to bring that in, repackage it, straighten it out, pointed towards helping Carol's business, helping Anja's business. And I think that creates distinctive advantage for us right now.

第二件事是，如果綠氫確實會移動，如果發生這種情況，你將需要控制開發商。為什麼？因此，您可以避免向第三方開發人員提供相當高的利潤。因此，在此時此刻，將其引入、重新包裝、理順，以幫助卡羅爾的業務、幫助安雅的業務是非常有意義的。我認為這現在為我們創造了獨特的優勢。

We will continue to bring partners in for develop and flip. We'll contemplate what we do with the developer itself. Should we bring in a partner or not, that's something we'll keep thinking about and we'll remain very agile. But they have different circumstances. I hope those examples give you a sense of how we think about these things, which is how do you drive max value through different points in cycle in these entities. So I hope that helps answer the question, Chris. Kate?

我們將繼續引入合作夥伴進行開發和翻轉。我們將考慮對開發商本身做什麼。我們是否應該引入合作夥伴，這是我們將繼續考慮的事情，我們將保持非常敏捷的態度。但他們的情況不同。我希望這些例子能讓您了解我們如何看待這些事情，即如何透過這些實體的不同周期點來驅動最大價值。所以我希望這有助於回答這個問題，克里斯。凱特？

Yes. So Chris, current market conditions. So a couple of things I'd say, one, is I think it's important to anchor yourself around the fact that the cash flows of our company not driven by an oil price alone. So it's a basket of commodities, it's oil price, it's gas price, it's refining margins. You know that. And you can look at where we've been year-to-date so far to get a sense of where we're thinking on that.

是的。克里斯，目前的市場狀況。因此，我想說的幾件事是，第一，我認為重要的是要立足於這樣一個事實：我們公司的現金流不僅僅由油價驅動。所以它是一籃商品，是石油價格，是天然氣價格，是煉油利潤。你懂的。您可以查看我們今年迄今為止的進展，以了解我們對此的想法。

What I would say is that the confidence that we now have in our balance sheet to tolerate movements around that gives you a sense that we can be comfortable in the fact that we'll be able to distribute the $14 billion in a range around where those prices have been year-to-date. If we see a fundamental disconnect in the market, then, of course, we'll need to talk to the Board and update you, if that happens.

我想說的是，我們現在對資產負債表有信心能夠容忍這種波動，這讓你感覺我們可以放心，因為我們將能夠在這些波動周圍的範圍內分配 140 億美元。價格為年初至今。如果我們看到市場出現根本性的脫節，那麼，當然，我們需要與董事會交談並向您通報最新情況（如果發生這種情況）。

But for now, the confidence we have in the business performance and the momentum we've got, the confidence that we've got and the strength of our balance sheet allows us to be confident that we can deliver the $14 billion at prices around where they've been year-to-date. That's how I hold it.

但就目前而言，我們對業務表現和勢頭充滿信心，我們的信心和資產負債表的實力讓我們有信心能夠以大約 140 億美元的價格交付 140 億美元。他們是今年迄今為止的。我就是這樣持有的。

Oswald Clint, at Bernstein. It looks like -- I mean just backing out maybe $4.5 billion of trading last year, I always like to try and dig into this. So it looks like, again, as Kate was saying, you hit the 4% number. So that's great. I guess just in this next 2 years, can you just talk about -- again, the confidence maybe linked to that last question and points to macro is -- at this macro, you can keep doing that quantum in 2024, 2025 what -- including the new businesses trading around those. Just again describe the confidence around delivering that through this year and next.

伯恩斯坦的奧斯瓦爾德·克林特。看起來——我的意思是去年退出了 45 億美元的交易，我總是喜歡嘗試深入研究這個問題。所以看起來，正如凱特所說，你再次達到了 4% 的數字。那太好了。我想在接下來的兩年裡，你能否再次談談，可能與最後一個問題有關並指向宏觀的信心是，在這個宏觀上，你可以在 2024 年、2025 年繼續做這個量子工作——包括圍繞這些進行交易的新業務。再次描述今年和明年實現這一目標的信心。

And then secondly, Murray, you said there are 4 generations in the oil and gas business. You're sitting and then you see -- I'm just curious about your appetite for a little bit more liquids growth potentially through the portfolio. We have the 3% to 2027. How do you think about bringing some more through, service cost inflation, all of that put together, please?

其次，默里，你說石油和天然氣產業有四代。你坐下來，然後你會發現——我只是好奇你對透過投資組合潛在地增加一點流動性增長的興趣。到 2027 年，我們的預算為 3%。請問您如何考慮透過服務成本通膨來增加更多的費用？

Yes, sure. Maybe I'll take both of these, sorry, Kate. Liquids, yes. So what we told everybody in Denver is that we see the capacity to grow our oil production, so to speak, by 2% to 3% through 2027. As we look ahead over the next 2 years, we have some big decisions on sanctions as well that will determine what happens beyond that, Os. So you have Cabo Frio in Brazil. You've got Kaskida, Tiber, Gila in the Gulf of Mexico and the Paleogene (inaudible) Northern Canada, you have clear expansion. You have Abu Dhabi expansion. I'm probably missing some that I can't think of off the top of my head, but you have these massive projects, some of which are held 100%. I think Paleogene 9 billion barrels 100%.

是的，當然。也許我會選擇這兩個，抱歉，凱特。液體，是的。因此，我們告訴丹佛的每個人，我們看到到 2027 年我們的石油產量有能力增長 2% 至 3%。展望未來 2 年，我們在製裁方面做出了一些重大決定，例如好吧，這將決定除此之外會發生什麼，Os。所以巴西有卡波弗里奧。墨西哥灣有卡斯基達 (Kaskida)、台伯 (Tiber)、吉拉 (Gila) 和加拿大北部的古近紀 (聽不清楚)，有明顯的擴張。您有阿布達比擴張。我可能錯過了一些我無法立即想到的東西，但你有這些大型項目，其中一些是 100% 持有的。我認為古近紀 90 億桶 100%。

Let's see how we go on those. And if we decide to sanction more of them rather than less, then I think we can do better than that 2% to 3%. But I'm not going to be focused on volume. I'm going to be super focused on returns and what's the right returns as we look across that versus the gas portfolio as well. There's a plethora of potential gas sanctions as well.

讓我們看看我們如何繼續這些。如果我們決定制裁更多而不是更少，那麼我認為我們可以做得比 2% 到 3% 更好。但我不會關注數量。當我們比較天然氣投資組合時，我將非常關注回報以及什麼是正確的回報。還有大量潛在的天然氣制裁。

So I think that's the task of 2 years ahead. That's why I highlighted it. Our reserve replacement ratio has been a bit low in the past. It's going to get back much more competitive now, as we look at this 12% to 16% sanctions across the next 2 years.

所以我認為這是未來兩年的任務。這就是為什麼我強調它。過去我們的儲備替代率有點低。當我們考慮未來 2 年 12% 至 16% 的製裁時，它現在將恢復更具競爭力。

What the volume outcome from that will be? Hard to predict. We've given you 2 million a day by the end of the decade, 2% to 3% growth through '27 on oil, but I think the sanctions will really determine that. So as we get through '24 and '25 and decide those, then we'll update you in due course about what 2030 really looks like based on all those sanctions. So I have a bias for returns. I don't necessarily have a bias for volume or oil gas on returns by ourselves.

其成交量結果會是多少？很難預測。到本世紀末，我們每天給你們 200 萬美元，到 27 年石油增長 2% 到 3%，但我認為制裁將真正決定這一點。因此，當我們度過「24」和「25」並做出決定時，我們將在適當的時候向您通報基於所有這些制裁的 2030 年的實際情況。所以我對回報有偏見。我自己不一定對成交量或油氣回報有偏見。

On trading, to have Carol's performance contract conversation in front of everybody, we remain deeply confident in our ability to generate the returns in the future that we have in the past, is my starting point. If you think back to 2020, '21, '22, '23, the world has seen a tremendous amount of volatility from COVID to the invasion of Ukraine, to events in the Middle East, to recessionary forces. That's just created incredible volatility. As you look ahead, oil demand continues to be very strong, and there's not very much spare capacity outside Saudi really. So capacity is tight.

在交易方面，讓卡羅爾的績效合約對話在每個人面前進行，我們對我們在未來產生像過去一樣的回報的能力充滿信心，這是我的出發點。如果你回想起 2020 年、21 年、22 年、23 年，世界經歷了從新冠疫情到入侵烏克蘭、中東事件、再到經濟衰退的巨大波動。這造成了令人難以置信的波動。展望未來，石油需求仍然非常強勁，而沙烏地阿拉伯以外的地區實際上並沒有太多閒置產能。所以產能比較緊張。

In refining, we've seen a lot of shutdowns on refineries. Today, the diesel complex is short. I'm sure tomorrow the gasoline complex will be short. These things keep changing because of all the outages that sit around us.

在煉油廠方面，我們看到很多煉油廠關閉。如今，柴油綜合體短缺。我確信明天汽油綜合體將會短缺。由於我們周圍的所有停電，這些事情不斷改變。

Natural gas, we feel okay about it right now, but a cold snap in the winter and one of the years changes the position on natural gas as well. So my own sense is that the world is quite volatile. It's quite volatile, and our businesses -- our trading business is set up to manage volatility and do well in a volatile time frame.

天然氣，我們現在感覺還不錯，但冬天和其中一年的寒流也改變了對天然氣的立場。所以我自己的感覺是，世界非常不穩定。它的波動性很大，我們的業務——我們的交易業務是為了管理波動性並在波動的時間範圍內表現良好而設立的。

Second, we're growing the business, more LNG, 25 by '25 is underpinned. I think 28 by '30 is already underpinned as well by a couple of contracts we've done in Oman and in Canada, Woodfibre. So you can already see those coming into the portfolio. So you've got a bigger LNG portfolio to take advantage of. We've started purchasing larger positions inside power as well so we can power a couple with gas. That was EDF in the U.S. and another transaction in Germany recently in January. So we're scaling up that.

其次，我們正在發展業務，更多的液化天然氣，到 25 年 25 世紀是有基礎的。我認為 28 by '30 已經得到了我們在阿曼和加拿大 Woodfibre 簽訂的幾份合約的支持。所以你已經可以看到那些進入投資組合的了。因此，您可以利用更大的液化天然氣產品組合。我們也開始在電力領域購買更大的位置，這樣我們就可以用天然氣為一些電力提供動力。這是法國電力公司在美國的交易，以及最近一月在德國的另一筆交易。所以我們正在擴大規模。

At the same time, our biofuels is growing, more coprocessing through each of our refineries. These are very capitally efficient small modules that buildup 5 or 10 kbd of capacity quite quickly with lots of biofuels trading, and there's lots of price volatility in that space as well. So I think we will -- I think I'm very comfortable with the 4% moving forward.

同時，我們的生物燃料不斷增長，並且透過我們每個煉油廠進行更多的協同加工。這些是資本效率非常高的小型模組，可以透過大量生物燃料交易快速建立 5 或 10 kbd 的容量，而該領域也存在很大的價格波動。所以我認為我們會——我認為我對 4% 的進展感到非常滿意。

You might ask Carol in private time if she feels as comfortable as I do. But I think given the growth of the business, the amount of investment we're putting into it and the volatility that we see ahead, I think we're well positioned moving forward. Hope that helps to answer.

你可以在私人時間問卡羅爾，她是否和我一樣感覺舒服。但我認為，考慮到業務的成長、我們投入的投資金額以及我們預期的未來波動性，我認為我們已經做好了向前發展的準備。希望能幫忙解答。

Great. Why don't we go to the next question, Lydia, and then I'll go to Paul online. Lydia?

偉大的。莉迪亞，我們為什麼不進入下一個問題，然後我會在線聯繫保羅。莉迪亞？

And just say I am delighted to both of you individually and for the BP, for the roles that you now have and thank you also for the longevity of the guidance as well in terms of the buyback. But Murray, you've talked about was in a simpler higher-value BP, which all sounds great because that you'd ever say it's going to be more complex. But what stops you from get there? What are your biggest challenges over that next 8 quarters?

我只是說，我對你們倆個人以及 BP、你們現在所擔任的角色感到高興，並感謝你們在回購方面提供的長期指導。但是莫瑞，你談到的是一個更簡單、更高價值的 BP，這一切聽起來都很棒，因為你曾經說過它會變得更加複雜。但是什麼阻止你到達那裡呢？未來 8 季您面臨的最大挑戰是什麼？

And then for Kate, the buyback you talked you at least $14 billion. So what moves you from that? is it operational or is it kind of -- is it purely price related? And linked to that, how do you think about CapEx versus buybacks?

然後對凱特來說，回購至少是 140 億美元。那麼是什麼讓你改變了呢？它是可操作的還是純粹與價格相關的？與此相關的是，您如何看待資本支出與回購？

Lydia, that might have been 3 questions. It was 2.5, okay, very good. I'll let Kate handle the second set on challenges for simplification. So I think the easiest way to think about this is the past 4 years has been about origination. The scale of the hopper we built in the hydrogen and solar, in offshore wind, in oil and gas, everywhere, you can see, we have tons of options to move forward.

Lydia，可能是 3 個問題。當時是2.5，不錯，非常好。我將讓凱特處理第二組簡化挑戰。所以我認為思考這個問題最簡單的方法是過去四年一直是關於起源的。我們在氫和太陽能、離岸風電、石油和天然氣領域建造的漏斗規模，你可以看到，我們有大量的選擇來前進。

And the big challenge is to now get the organization, the engineers and the commercial people to move away from origination to execution. That's the big challenge. So forcing the pace to get to decisions so we can increase cycle time to increase value, reallocating the people to the right places and then stopping the old stuff.

現在最大的挑戰是讓組織、工程師和商務人員從發起轉向執行。這是一個巨大的挑戰。因此，加快決策速度，這樣我們就可以增加週期時間來增加價值，將人員重新分配到正確的位置，然後停止舊的工作。

As always in large corporations, stopping the old stuff is a perpetual challenge and that's probably the challenge the leadership team and I have is really getting people to really focus on the stuff and not pursuing other things.

就像大公司一樣，停止使用舊東西是一個永恆的挑戰，這可能是我和領導團隊面臨的挑戰，真正讓人們真正專注於這些東西，而不是追求其他東西。

At the same time, there's a huge opportunity inside technology. We've made immense strides on digital over the past 10 years, especially in the upstream business. We've now struck a deal with Microsoft to be their -- one of their founding partners on AI Copilot. We're getting it in the hands of our engineers and across the company. And trying to figure out what are the best things to go after at scale is a key challenge because the opportunities are enormous in this space.

同時，技術內部也蘊藏著巨大的機會。過去十年，我們在數位化方面取得了巨大進步，尤其是在上游業務方面。我們現在已經與微軟達成協議，成為他們的 AI Copilot 創始合作夥伴之一。我們正在將其交到我們的工程師和整個公司的手中。試圖找出最值得大規模追求的東西是一個關鍵挑戰，因為這個領域的機會是巨大的。

So to me, it's all about focus, if I'm honest. It's all about focus and getting the organization to focus and then let go the other stuff. That's the biggest challenge that we'll have moving forward. Kate?

所以對我來說，老實說，這一切都與專注有關。這一切都是為了集中精力，讓組織集中精力，然後放棄其他事情。這是我們前進時面臨的最大挑戰。凱特？

Yes. Thanks, Lydia. Maybe I'll talk about the $14 billion first, and then I'll come back to your question on CapEx and share buybacks. So the way I think about the $14 billion -- and Murray talked about the drive to 2025 and all of the confidence that we have and the momentum that's currently around the company, the operations are performing really well. We've got a number of things that come online over the next 2 years.

是的。謝謝，莉迪亞。也許我會先談 140 億美元，然後我會回到你關於資本支出和股票回購的問題。因此，我對 140 億美元的看法——莫瑞談到了 2025 年的努力，以及我們的信心和公司目前的勢頭，營運表現非常好。我們有很多東西將在未來兩年內上線。

That gives us enormous confidence in terms of the underlying operations and our ability to deliver the business outcome. So that bit I don't feel is in the picture in terms of deciding where we go with the $14 billion. For me, it's really about environment. And if there's a fundamental change in the environment, then obviously, our cash flows are going to change in relationship to that. So that's why we've anchored it on current conditions.

這讓我們對基礎營運和交付業務成果的能力充滿信心。因此，我認為在決定 140 億美元的去向時，這一點並不重要。對我來說，這確實與環境有關。如果環境發生根本性變化，那麼顯然我們的現金流將會隨之改變。這就是為什麼我們將其固定在當前條件下。

We went to current rather than reasonable because we wanted to give you something that was objective and not subjective. So that's why we went with current market conditions, and you know what those are.

我們選擇當前的而不是合理的，因為我們想給你一些客觀而不是主觀的東西。這就是我們選擇當前市場狀況的原因，你知道這些是什麼。

In terms of CapEx and share buybacks, so I wouldn't interpret the tightening of the CapEx guidance to 16 as being part of the affordability of the 14. I see the CapEx tightening is a real symbol of our focus on the fact that we are going to be hugely disciplined in how we allocate our capital and very much, very much returns driven. Our sanctions have to hit hurdle. Otherwise, we won't move them through. And I think that's really important.

就資本支出和股票回購而言，我不會將資本支出指導收緊至 16 解釋為 14 的承受能力的一部分。我認為資本支出收緊是我們關注這一事實的真正像徵：我們將在如何分配資本以及以回報為導向方面受到嚴格限制。我們的製裁必須遇到障礙。否則，我們不會讓他們通過。我認為這非常重要。

Murray and I are incredibly clear on that. We've done a lot of inorganic activity, which we've talked about over the last couple of years. I think going forward, there's probably a less space for that for the next couple of years. I think the 16 feels about right based on the activity set that we've got today loaded and the tightness that we see around the big -- certainly, the upstream yards around the world we wouldn't really want to -- couldn't really do it well, actually, if you were to take that up.

穆雷和我對此非常清楚。我們做了很多無機活動，過去幾年我們一直在談論這些活動。我認為展望未來，未來幾年的空間可能會更少。我認為 16 號的感覺是正確的，基於我們今天裝載的活動集以及我們在大型船周圍看到的緊密度——當然，世界各地的上游船廠我們並不真正想要——不能事實上，如果你要接受的話，真的做得很好。

So I wouldn't link the share buyback upgrade to the CapEx tightening. The CapEx tightening is about discipline and focus. The share buyback is around the confidence that we have in the balance sheet and the underlying performance of the business to deliver, and that's what's generated our ability to upgrade and enhance.

因此，我不會將股票回購升級與資本支出收緊連結起來。資本支出收緊與紀律和重點有關。股票回購是基於我們對資產負債表和業務基本績效的信心，這就是我們升級和增強能力的原因。

Thanks, Kate. I'll go online now, Paul Cheng, Scotia Bank. Paul?

謝謝，凱特。我現在就上網，豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。保羅？

Murray, I just want to go back into your prepared remarks say (inaudible), and you also -- in your early comment that you want to say, let's go some of the pivots behavior and focusing on more efficient. So from that standpoint is the organization structure need to be adjusted or that you can do all that within the current organization structure.

穆雷，我只想回到您準備好的講話中（聽不清楚），您也在早期評論中想說，讓我們採取一些關鍵行為並專注於提高效率。所以從這個角度來說，是組織架構需要調整，還是可以在現有的組織架構內進行。

Great. Thanks, Paul. Appreciate the question. It was a touch hard to hear you, so I think I'll try to answer the question. If I don't answer the question, let us know, please.

偉大的。謝謝，保羅。感謝這個問題。聽你說話有點困難，所以我想我會盡力回答這個問題。如果我沒有回答這個問題，請告訴我們。

I think the question was organization structure. Do we feel we have the right organization structure to move to delivery?

我認為問題在於組織結構。我們是否認為我們擁有適合交付的組織結構？

Look, we made a huge change in organization structure back in 2020, probably the largest organization structure in our 114-year history. I don't want to do that again. That was needed, but really demanding on people and demanding on the corporation. Some of those changes took a couple of years to enact in places like Europe. So I don't want to do mass change of structure.

看，我們在 2020 年對組織結構進行了巨大的改變，這可能是我們 114 年歷史上最大的組織結構。我不想再這樣做了。這是必要的，但對人和公司的要求確實很高。其中一些變化在歐洲等地花了幾年時間才實施。所以我不想對結構進行大規模改變。

I don't think we need to either. However, there are places where we're inefficient. And we'll do a gradual program over time of driving efficiency into the business and the structure. There are places where we've got overlapped that we need to think about how to do it better. So that will be something in our minds. But big corporate structural change, no. Changes to reporting segments, I prefer not. I think that's not something that's going to help delivery of our targets in 2025.

我認為我們也不需要。然而，我們也有效率低的地方。隨著時間的推移，我們將製定一個循序漸進的計劃，以提高業務和結構的效率。有些地方我們有重疊，我們需要思考如何做得更好。所以這將是我們心中的事。但大型企業結構性變革卻並非如此。我不喜歡改變報告分部。我認為這無助於實現我們 2025 年的目標。

But look, I'm going to challenge the corporation and challenge ourselves to simplify everywhere we can. You felt it in the buyback guidance today, simpler guidance to help the market. You'll just see us continuing to push that and push that, but I don't want to do a giant wave now. Paul, did I answer your question?

但是看，我將挑戰公司並挑戰我們自己，盡我們所能地簡化。您在今天的回購指導中感受到了這一點，更簡單的指導可以幫助市場。你只會看到我們繼續推動這一點，但我現在不想掀起巨大的浪潮。保羅，我回答你的問題了嗎？

Yes. Maybe that if I can. Along the way, you guys have done a number of joint ventures whether (inaudible) but from an organization or data management, joint venture, a lot of time is difficult. So if you're trying to make it more simplified going forward, so we assume going forward, you will revise lesser on the joint venture structure? Or was that this is a different topic and you don't think it matters?

是的。如果可以的話也許可以。一路走來，你們已經做了很多合資企業（聽不清楚），但從組織或資料管理、合資來說，很多時候都是困難的。因此，如果您試圖使其更加簡化，那麼我們假設未來您將對合資企業結構進行較少的修改？或者這是一個不同的主題，您認為這不重要？

I don't relate to the JV structure as a mechanism to simplify or not on business delivery. I relate to the joint venture structure as a mechanism to more efficiently create value. So if you think back to Lightsource bp, we took it off balance sheet. We geared it up 5 years ago, and we let it grow on its own. That decision was about giving them independence so they could grow rapidly.

我不認為合資企業結構是一種簡化或不簡化業務交付的機制。我將合資結構視為更有效創造價值的機制。因此，如果您回想一下 Lightsource bp，我們已將其從資產負債表中剔除。我們五年前就做好了準備，讓它自行成長。這個決定是為了讓他們獨立，以便他們能夠快速成長。

They've now hit the limits of that, and we need to bring them back in, reset it and have a new model moving forward. But it was all a value-based decision as opposed to an efficiency-based decision.

他們現在已經達到了極限，我們需要讓他們回來，重置它並有一個新的模型向前發展。但這都是基於價值的決策，而不是基於效率的決策。

Think about BPX in the Lower 48, we decided once we bought BHP to allow that entity to have an OMS but not an OMS that was of a similar quality to our offshore businesses and that allows it to operate more freely, access acreage faster, do contracting faster, et cetera. So for that particular basin, solar and BPX, we felt that, that separate model would help them deliver more efficiently.

考慮一下48 個州的BPX，一旦我們收購了必和必拓，我們就決定允許該實體擁有OMS，但不是與我們的離岸業務具有類似質量的OMS，這使得它能夠更自由地運營，更快地獲取面積，做收縮得更快等等。因此，對於特定的盆地、太陽能和 BPX，我們認為，單獨的模型將幫助他們更有效地交付。

So to me, it's about the structure that we use, is all about how do you create max value. That's how I think about it and that's how we will continue to think about it moving forward. Thanks for the question, Paul.

所以對我來說，這與我們使用的結構有關，與如何創造最大價值有關。這就是我的想法，也是我們今後繼續思考的方式。謝謝你的提問，保羅。

Just back on the line one more, and then we'll come back into the room. Roger Read, please. Roger?

只要再接通一次電話，然後我們就會回到房間。羅傑·里德，請。羅傑？

I guess probably coming back around on a couple of the questions already been asked. I just want to make sure I understand, on the improvement in EBITDA that you're looking at for $70 base, Brent, is there a way to think about that from a how much is likely from, let's call it, the conventional production side, whether it's the gas or the oil piece? And is that a mix issue with these new projects coming in? Or is there something else in terms of OpEx reduction we should be paying attention to? That's kind of question number one.

我想可能會回過頭來回答一些已經被問到的問題。我只是想確保我理解，關於您在 70 美元基礎上尋求的 EBITDA 的改善，布倫特，有沒有一種方法可以從傳統生產方面可能有多少來考慮這一點，是天然氣還是石油？這是這些新項目的混合問題嗎？或者說在降低營運支出方面還有什麼值得我們關注的嗎？這是第一個問題。

And then in terms of the financial frame on the returns here of capital, and I appreciate the clarity, I think that's a nice step forward. If I think about your returns as a percentage of EBITDA compared to some of your peers, it's still on the lower end. So I'm just wondering, do you think about it as strictly what BP is capable of or do you want to try to close the gap longer term with peers in terms of, call it, ratios or percentage metrics?

然後就資本回報的財務框架而言，我很欣賞這種清晰度，我認為這是向前邁出的一步。如果我將您的回報率視為 EBITDA 與您的一些同行相比的百分比，它仍然處於較低水平。所以我只是想知道，您是否嚴格地考慮英國石油公司的能力，或者您是否想嘗試在比率或百分比指標方面嘗試縮小與同行的長期差距？

Great. I'll let Kate answer the second one. On, EBITDA, so just 2025 is the -- I think what your question is, Roger, hope so, because I don't carry the 2030 numbers is tightly in my head. But for 2025, if you normalize 2023 to '25 conditions, we're at $44 billion of EBITDA moving towards $46 billion to $49 billion in 2025. We obviously have growth in the upstream that we've been talking about.

偉大的。我請凱特回答第二個問題。關於 EBITDA，所以 2025 年就是——我想你的問題是什麼，羅傑，希望如此，因為我腦子裡沒有牢牢記住 2030 年的數字。但對於2025 年，如果將2023 年正常化為“25 年條件”，我們的EBITDA 將為440 億美元，到2025 年將達到460 億美元至490 億美元。顯然，我們一直在談論的上游領域有增長。

There are divestments along the way that may or may not happen. Some of these ones are pretty tricky, but there are some potential divestments we've talked about in the past that may be part of that mix as well. But the new projects that are coming on are of higher quality to the existing business. I think the uplift is about 15% to 20%. So you should see margin mix impact from the upstream across the time period. So that's the first part of your question.

在此過程中可能會發生撤資，也可能不會發生。其中一些非常棘手，但我們過去討論過的一些潛在的撤資也可能是其中的一部分。但即將開展的新項目比現有業務的品質更高。我認為提升幅度約為15%至20%。因此，您應該看到整個時間段內上游的利潤率組合影響。這是你問題的第一部分。

Additionally, we talked about the transition growth engines earlier. We see growth of 1 up to 3 to 4 based on the acquisitions we've done and the direction of travel with the rest. So I think that should help you think about how we get into that $46 billion to $49 billion realm. Probably the first half of it is the historical oil and gas business and refining business, and the second half is the transition growth engines as well.

此外，我們之前討論過轉型成長引擎。根據我們已完成的收購以及其他公司的發展方向，我們預計成長率為 1 到 3 到 4。所以我認為這應該可以幫助你思考我們如何進入 460 億至 490 億美元的領域。大概上半年是歷史油氣業務和煉油業務，下半年也是轉型成長引擎。

I feel pretty underpinned on the $46 billion to $49 billion, to be honest. I think we'll hit that quite easily. Kate?

老實說，我對 460 億至 490 億美元感到非常有信心。我想我們會很容易做到這一點。凱特？

Yes. Thanks. And morning -- very early morning for you, Roger. Thank you for joining us today. Let me step back a little bit. So if you think about our balance sheet and where we were in 2020, we had net debt of over $50 billion. And I think you could argue we're starting from perhaps a slightly different place than some of our peers. And the focus that we have put into strengthening the balance sheet and putting 40% of surplus to that balance sheet and deleverage over the last few years, I think, has been really, really important.

是的。謝謝。早上——對你來說早上還很早，羅傑。感謝您今天加入我們。讓我退一步。因此，如果你考慮我們的資產負債表以及 2020 年的情況，我們的淨債務超過 500 億美元。我想你可能會說我們的出發點可能與一些同行略有不同。我認為，過去幾年我們把重點放在強化資產負債表、將 40% 的盈餘投入資產負債表和去槓桿化上，這真的非常非常重要。

And as we've said today a number of times, it's taken us to a place now where we are stronger than we were. We've got confidence that our balance sheet can tolerate movements. And that has allowed us to do more with regard to shareholder distributions and move to the 80%. We feel that's in line with our peers. And so it's very much around the journey that we've taken to get to where we are today. Today, with what we're announcing with our predictable, simplified enhanced guidance, we feel that, that very much puts us in line with our peer group.

正如我們今天多次說過的，它把我們帶到了一個比以前更強大的地方。我們有信心我們的資產負債表能夠承受波動。這使我們能夠在股東分配方面採取更多措施，並達到 80%。我們認為這與我們的同行一致。因此，這很大程度上取決於我們達到今天的成就所經歷的旅程。今天，透過我們宣布的可預測的、簡化的增強指導，我們認為，這非常使我們與同行保持一致。

Good. Thanks, Roger. Why don't we come back into the room. Yes.

好的。謝謝，羅傑。我們為什麼不回到房間？是的。

It's Josh Stone here from UBS. Two questions, please. Firstly, you haven't made any reference to emissions today. You revised your scope 2 emission target this time last year. Just how comfortable do you feel with that target for 2030? Are there some easy wins you can do to reduce emissions and still maintain value?

我是瑞銀集團的喬許史東。請教兩個問題。首先，您今天沒有提及排放量。去年這個時候，您修訂了範圍 2 排放目標。您對 2030 年的目標有何感想？您可以採取一些簡單的措施來減少排放並保持價值嗎？

And then second question for Kate on working capital. You mentioned there was a large release related to LNG. Just can you remind us, is there anything left to release on the LNG side?

然後是凱特的第二個問題關於營運資金。您提到有與液化天然氣相關的大量釋放。您能否提醒我們，液化天然氣方面還有什麼可以釋放的嗎？

Sure. On emissions, so we'll update our emissions in the ARA for what we actually achieved in 2023. We're still busy calculating that, as you can imagine. But I think we've got strong progress on scope 1 and scope 2 emissions from our company. We continue on with the drive to hit 50% reduction in emissions from scope 1 and scope 2 by 2030. That's engineering. It's pure and simple engineering.

當然。關於排放量，我們將更新 ARA 中的排放量，以了解我們在 2023 年實際實現的目標。正如您可以想像的那樣，我們仍在忙著計算。但我認為我們公司在範圍 1 和範圍 2 排放方面取得了巨大進展。我們繼續致力於在 2030 年將範圍 1 和範圍 2 的排放量減少 50%。這就是工程。這是純粹而簡單的工程。

Now it's big programs like you'll see in Indonesia of taking carbon injecting it into the reservoir, getting more natural gas out, the carbon stays and trained, and there's less emissions for the planet. So those are the kind of things that we'll be doing, but it's a very -- Gordon has a very precise list of projects that we'll work our way through over the next 4 or 5 years to hit that particular target.

現在，這是像您在印尼看到的那樣的大型計劃，將碳注入儲層，提取更多天然氣，碳保留並經過訓練，地球的排放量就會減少。這些就是我們要做的事情，但戈登有一個非常精確的項目清單，我們將在未來 4 到 5 年內完成這些項目，以實現特定目標。

I mentioned earlier, aim 4, which was about methane reduction. We hit an incredible milestone. Huge compliments to Gordon and the team for putting methane measurement in place across the oil and gas business. That's demanded new engineering, new technologies, working internally and externally to get to that result. I really proud of it because it's the most important thing for the planet that we reduce these. Methane emissions, we'll, of course, be sharing this technology and this learning with anybody inside the sector who wants to.

我之前提到過目標 4，即減少甲烷排放。我們達到了一個令人難以置信的里程碑。高度讚揚戈登和他的團隊在整個石油和天然氣行業實施甲烷測量。這需要新的工程、新技術、內部和外部的努力才能達到這一結果。我真的為此感到自豪，因為減少這些對地球來說是最重要的事情。甲烷排放，我們當然會與業內任何願意的人分享這項技術和學習成果。

On aim 3, the product mix changes, right? The product mix just changes over time. You could hear what I was saying about more electrons being sold. So we have fuel stations where we sell fuel. Some of that's migrating towards electrification as an example. And I think sales of electricity over 150% up on the previous year. So no concerns with the direction of travel we have right now.

在目標 3 上，產品組合發生了變化，對嗎？產品組合只是隨著時間的推移而改變。你可以聽到我所說的關於出售更多電子的內容。所以我們有加油站來賣燃料。例如，其中一些正在轉向電氣化。我認為售電量比上一年增長了 150% 以上。所以不用擔心我們現在的行進方向。

And we are seeing strong adoption. And we think things like Lightsource bp will help us immensely on this journey as well. So we can couple lower carbon offers with natural gas offers to customers as well. So no change. No change to what we're thinking as far as the aims go. Kate?

我們看到了強勁的採用。我們認為像 Lightsource bp 這樣的東西也將為我們的這段旅程提供巨大幫助。因此，我們也可以將低碳產品與天然氣產品結合提供給客戶。所以沒有改變。就目標而言，我們的想法並沒有改變。凱特？

Yes, thanks. Thanks, Josh. So back at the third quarter results, I talked about around $3 billion still to come in terms of LNG delivery. As you saw, we've got around about a $2 billion working capital release in the fourth quarter. Most of that is related to LNG deliveries. So I would hold it that there's about a 1 left to come, as those deliver through the course of the first half of the year.

對了謝謝。謝謝，喬許。回到第三季的業績，我談到液化天然氣交付仍有約 30 億美元的收入。正如您所看到的，我們在第四季度釋放了大約 20 億美元的營運資金。其中大部分與液化天然氣交付有關。因此，我認為大約還有 1 個項目即將推出，因為這些項目將在今年上半年交付。

Great. Thanks, Kate. Martijn.

偉大的。謝謝，凱特。馬丁。

It's Martijn Rats from Morgan Stanley. A little positive in this set of results. I mean you're giving us an awful lot to work with. So that's great, but I do want to ask you two things. I wanted to ask about the impairments because in the fourth quarter, there were still some impairments, and we tend to sort of shake them off and say, well, noncash, but it was cash once. Is there some common denominator in this impairments, perhaps you can sort of say a few words about that?

我是摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats。這組結果有點正面。我的意思是你給了我們很多工作機會。太好了，但我確實想問你兩件事。我想問減值問題，因為在第四季度，仍然存在一些減值，我們傾向於擺脫它們並說，好吧，非現金，但它曾經是現金。這種缺陷是否存在一些共同點，也許您可以對此說幾句話？

And the other one I wanted to ask about the activist shareholder letter, if you had any response to that? I know it's a small investor, but nevertheless, it was sort of intriguing.

我想問的另一個問題是關於維權股東的信，您對此有何回應？我知道這是一個小投資者，但儘管如此，這還是很有趣。

Why don't you start with impairments, Kate?

凱特，你為什麼不從損傷開始？

Yes. Thanks, Martijn. So impairments, yes, as you would expect every quarter, we look for potential impairment triggers. In the fourth quarter, there are a number of things that come together. We update our price perspective. We update our group discount rate. We've got our changes to reserves, and you put all of those assumptions together and -- so it's a confluence of a number of things coming together that cause impairments.

是的。謝謝，馬丁。因此，正如您每個季度所期望的那樣，我們會尋找潛在的減損觸發因素。在第四季度，有很多事情匯集在一起。我們更新了我們的價格觀點。我們更新了團體折扣率。我們對準備金進行了更改，然後將所有這些假設放在一起，因此這是導致損害的許多因素的匯合。

So a theme around updates to prices and rates, coupled with some other things that are going on -- for example, one of the things I would talk about -- I think in the stock exchange announcement, we do reference BPX. We were out in Denver. We are unwavering in our confidence with regard to BPX. There's a couple of things going on in that number. And it's price and discount rate, but it's also some acreage swaps that's driving that.

因此，圍繞著價格和利率更新的主題，再加上正在發生的其他一些事情——例如，我要談論的事情之一——我認為在證券交易所公告中，我們確實提到了 BPX。我們在丹佛。我們對BPX的信心堅定不移。這個數字中有幾件事發生。這是價格和折扣率的推動，但也有一些面積互換的推動。

So you shouldn't interpret the impairments as having any impact on our EBITDA targets in 2025. If there are some changes on reserves, we may see some downward trend in terms of volumes from one part of our portfolio, but they're offset by upward trends in other parts of the portfolio. So we're comfortable.

因此，您不應將減損解讀為對我們 2025 年 EBITDA 目標產生任何影響。如果準備金發生一些變化，我們可能會看到我們投資組合的一部分的交易量出現一些下降趨勢，但它們會被投資組合其他部分的上升趨勢。所以我們很舒服。

And then on your second question, Martijn. Look, we welcome constructive engagement with all shareholders. I think that's an important thing as a publicly traded company, we think about.

然後關於你的第二個問題，Martijn。看，我們歡迎與所有股東進行建設性接觸。我們認為，我認為作為一家上市公司，這是一件重要的事情。

We disagree with our assertions. We just disagree with them, if I'm honest. We run an integrated model. I think you've heard me talk about integration quite a bit today, and we think we do it fairly well. We're really proud to be bringing Lightsource bp in. It has a strong track record of delivery. It's a top 5 solar producer globally, and it's achieved mid-teens returns -- mid-teens returns over the past 5 years in their development flip model.

我們不同意我們的主張。老實說，我們只是不同意他們的觀點。我們運行一個整合模型。我想您今天已經多次聽到我談論集成，我們認為我們做得相當好。我們非常自豪能夠引入 Lightsource bp。它擁有良好的交付記錄。它是全球排名前 5 名的太陽能生產商，並且在過去 5 年的開發翻轉模型中實現了中雙位數的回報。

And we've obviously been in power for a long time, 15 years now in the U.S. in integrated power onshore. So we do quite a lot with electricity across our business, coupling it with gas. I think we're #1 in gas and #2 or 3 on any day in power trading in the United States.

顯然，我們在美國陸上綜合電力領域已經掌權很久了，現在已經 15 年了。因此，我們在整個業務中做了很多電力工作，並將其與天然氣結合。我認為我們在美國天然氣交易中排名第一，在電力交易中任何一天排名第二或第三。

And on offshore wind, as we've said before, our returns hurdles on offshore wind are 6% to 8% unlevered. But by the time you lever it up, by the time you farm it down and bring in a partner, by the time you integrate it into our business, you're well into double-digit returns, and that competes well with the rest of our business.

至於離岸風電，正如我們之前所說，我們的離岸風電回報率在無槓桿情況下為 6% 至 8%。但是，當你提高槓桿率時，當你將其耕種並引入合作夥伴時，當你將其整合到我們的業務中時，你將獲得兩位數的回報，並且與其他公司競爭很好我們的業務。

So we're happy with our strategy. Direction is unchanged. You'll see us be much more focused, much simpler and very, very returns focused, but we're very happy with the direction of travel and the shareholders I talked to are happy as well. Thank you for the question. Next question in the room?

所以我們對我們的策略感到滿意。方向不變。你會發現我們更加專注，更加簡單，並且非常非常注重回報，但我們對前進的方向非常滿意，與我交談過的股東也很高興。感謝你的提問。房間裡的下一個問題？

Can I go back towards cash flow? And just if I look at the cash flow statement (inaudible) movements in inventories, other current liabilities, et cetera, et cetera, it's been in the order of 9 billion, 9.5 billion the largest, past 2 years sort of that's upon the -- most of the LNG is now with you. I'm just trying to understand the extensive -- the reasons behind the increase -- on through that particular line, how much of it is about putting more up on trading, so on and so forth, perhaps you can help me. Sorry, I should have taken a microphone...

我可以回到現金流嗎？如果我看一下現金流量表（聽不清楚）庫存、其他流動負債等的變動，就會發現大約是 90 億，最大的是 95 億，過去 2 年差不多是這樣的—— - 大部分液化天然氣現在都在你身邊。我只是想通過該特定線路了解廣泛的增長背後的原因，其中有多少是關於增加交易等等，也許你可以幫助我。抱歉，我應該拿麥克風的…

I'm going to turn to my cash flow statement set as well...

我還要看看我的現金流量表...

There is a second one.

還有第二個。

Do you want to ask the second one, while I just look at the cash flow statement?

我只看現金流量表，你想問第二個問題嗎？

Yes. And the second one is, it goes back to the customers' business and just 2019, the guidance for '25 with $7 billion of EBITDA from the $5 billion base, 4 years on, 3 years on with $4.3 billion or so of EBITDA. You're indicating $1 billion or so of further improvement from the transition growth engines in that business. There's obviously something that comes from travelers, but help me bridge the gap.

是的。第二個是，它回到了客戶的業務，就在2019 年，25 年的指引是在50 億美元的基礎上實現了70 億美元的EBITDA，4 年、3 年之後的EBITDA 達到了43 億美元左右。您表示該業務的轉型成長引擎將帶來 10 億美元左右的進一步改進。顯然有些東西來自旅行者，但請幫助我彌補差距。

Sure. Why don't I take the second one, while Kate looks at the working capital question. On C&M, We have a target to get to $7 billion in 2025. I feel okay about it, I think is the way I'd say it. We're 4 and a bit right now. TravelCenters comes in for a full year. Castrol has now started to show a trend 5 quarters in a row, gradually creeping up. That's good. Convenience growing 9% year-on-year. That's good, and that continues. Electrification moving from a loss to positive, so it's a lot of small movements we see that start to drive it up.

當然。我為什麼不選擇第二個，而凱特則研究營運資金問題。在 C&M 方面，我們的目標是在 2025 年達到 70 億美元。我對此感覺不錯，我想這就是我所說的方式。我們現在4歲半了。 TravelCenters 推出一整年。嘉實多現已開始連續五季呈現出這種趨勢，並逐漸攀升。那挺好的。便利性較去年同期成長9%。這很好，而且這種情況還在繼續。電氣化正在從虧損轉向積極，所以我們看到很多小動作開始推動它的成長。

Something we don't control is the fuel margin. and the fuel margins have been unusual in this time period. They swung into the refineries as opposed to into the service stations itself.

我們無法控制的是燃油餘裕。在此期間，燃料利潤率非比尋常。他們進入煉油廠而不是加油站本身。

I can't predict how that's going to turn out in 2025. I just really can't predict that. but there's probably $1 billion of swing on that. So you might see a number of 6 to 7 in C&M in '25, but the other billions likely to be in the refineries instead. I just can't predict at Lucas because it's really -- it's difficult to predict where that margin is swinging up and down that value chain.

我無法預測 2025 年會發生什麼事。我真的無法預測。但這可能有 10 億美元的波動。因此，25 年您可能會在 C&M 中看到 6 到 7 個，但其他數十億可能會在煉油廠中。我只是無法預測盧卡斯，因為真的很難預測利潤在價值鏈上上下波動。

So because we run an integrated value chain, I feel comfortable with 46 to 49. It just may be 6 as opposed to 7 in C&M and it may be a bit higher inside our refineries. So that's how I get comfortable that I can see that path. It's been a tremendously challenging time period for that business. When you think about COVID and lack of travel, when you think about how long the lockdowns occurred inside China, when you think of the inflationary pressures in the recession, it's been a hard slog for Emma and the team, but I now feel they're back up and on it, and we're really starting to drive digitization offshoring into that business as well. So that will be another lever that we get there. So that's how I'm thinking about it, Lucas. Kate, over to you on W CAP.

因此，因為我們運行一個整合的價值鏈，所以我對 46 到 49 感到滿意。在 C&M 中，它可能是 6，而不是 7，而且在我們的煉油廠內可能會更高一些。這就是我能夠看到那條路而感到舒服的原因。對於該業務來說，這是一個極具挑戰性的時期。當你想到新冠肺炎和缺乏旅行時，當你想到中國境內的封鎖持續了多長時間，當你想到經濟衰退中的通膨壓力時，這對艾瑪和團隊來說是一個艱難的過程，但我現在感覺到他們」重新支持並繼續努力，我們也真正開始推動數位化離岸外包進入該業務。因此，這將是我們實現這一目標的另一個槓桿。這就是我的想法，盧卡斯。凱特，W CAP 的任務交給你了。

Yes. So on working capital, in terms of the detailed notes around what's going on in underlying working capital, the $9 billion release is really a function of what happened back in 2022 where we saw about a huge spike in gas prices. That's now largely unwind. As you've heard me say this morning, we feel we've got $1 billion left of unwind to come through, which is going to be one change in the working capital going forward in 2024. But the $9 billion that you see in the '23 results today is largely a function of what happened in '22 and the unwind of that position.

是的。因此，在營運資本方面，就基礎營運資本發生的詳細說明而言，90 億美元的釋放實際上是 2022 年發生的情況的函數，當時我們看到天然氣價格大幅上漲。現在基本上可以放鬆了。正如您今天早上聽到我說的，我們認為我們還有 10 億美元的資金需要釋放，這將是 2024 年營運資金的一項變化。但是您在 2024 年看到的 90 億美元今天的23 年結果很大程度上取決於22 年發生的事情以及該頭寸的平倉。

We understand each other. I mean I'm just looking at $3 billion -- sorry. And we can take it off-line if that's easier. But I'm just looking at $6.3 billion of outflow movement inventories, et cetera, et cetera, in 2022. Another $3.3 billion this year, which I assume to be working -- flows out largely working capital associated. A chunk of it last year was LNG. Much of that money has come back. I'm still unclear as to why the negatives in the cash flow or of that scale, and they seem to be predominantly around inventory or am I -- just misunderstood.

我們理解彼此。我的意思是我只關注 30 億美元——抱歉。如果更容易的話我們可以讓它離線。但我只關注 2022 年 63 億美元的流出流動庫存等等。今年還有 33 億美元，我認為這些資金正在發揮作用，主要流出相關的營運資本。去年其中很大一部分是液化天然氣。大部分錢都回來了。我仍然不清楚為什麼現金流或如此規模的負面影響，它們似乎主要與庫存有關，或者我只是誤解了。

There will be movements in inventory. There will be changes in valuation of RINs, other emissions allowances and all those kind of things flow through German MOT. If you -- we can take you through a rec and take you through how it builds up, if that's helpful, but we should do that offline.

庫存將會有變動。 RIN、其他排放配額以及所有這些透過德國交通部流通的事物的估值將會改變。如果你——我們可以帶你進行一次rec，並帶你了解它是如何構建的，如果這有幫助的話，但我們應該離線進行。

Al -- Al Syme at the back of room please?

艾爾——艾爾·賽姆，請在房間後面嗎？

Thanks, Murray. Can I say you focus -- the theme today is about operational delivery in the next couple of years and sort of scale back in M&A to some extent. But you find yourself with a pretty strong balance sheet at a time of higher rates, is putting a lot of stress on transition players and also perhaps in the U.S. shale. There's a lot of private players trying to exit, but how do you think about utilizing that balance sheet versus the option of buybacks, which is where you're choosing to allocate?

謝謝，穆雷。我可以說你關注的是——今天的主題是關於未來幾年的營運交付以及在某種程度上縮減併購規模。但你發現自己在利率較高的時期擁有相當強勁的資產負債表，這給轉型參與者帶來了很大的壓力，也許美國頁岩油也是如此。有很多私人參與者試圖退出，但您如何考慮利用資產負債表與回購選項（您選擇分配）？

Yes. Thanks, Al. I guess I start from the position that we've done a lot. We've already done a lot with EDF, Lightsource, Archaea, TA. And there are only so many of these things you can do at once and deliver them effectively. So we're probably -- we've probably got 1 or 2 more in this for the next couple of years. And then that's about the saturation point that you can actually integrate these things effectively. That's how -- that's the starting thought I have. I'm very countercyclical.

是的。謝謝，艾爾。我想我是從我們已經做了很多工作的立場開始的。我們已經與 EDF、Lightsource、Archaea、TA 做了很多工作。而你能同時做並有效交付的事情就這麼多。所以我們可能——在接下來的幾年裡，我們可能還會有 1 到 2 個這樣的項目。這就是您實際上可以有效地整合這些東西的飽和點。就是這樣——這就是我最初的想法。我是一個非常反週期的人。

That's why you saw us do Lightsource bp when we did because it was a nice countercyclical opportunity. So I'm very -- and TA as well. So I'm very focused on new countercyclical opportunities. So I am sympathetic to that. But there's just -- only so much the corporation can absorb at once and get the systems right, the processes right, the culture right. That's what's so critical for us.

這就是為什麼你看到我們做 Lightsource bp 的時候，因為這是一個很好的反週期機會。所以我非常——還有助教。所以我非常關注新的反週期機會。所以我對此表示同情。但公司能夠立即吸收的東西並讓系統、流程和文化都正確。這對我們來說至關重要。

Natural gas in the U.S., let's see where gas prices go. Certainly, there's the chance that gas prices get suppressed. Would you think about doing something countercyclical in gas if an opportunity came up? Maybe. But I've got 22 Tcf of natural gas inside BPX right now between the Haynesville and the Eagle Ford. So it would almost have to be super cheap or free for me to contemplate that given that we've got so many years of development ahead of us with natural gas with the resources we have in the best place in the United States right now.

美國的天然氣，讓我們來看看天然氣價格走向何方。當然，天然氣價格有可能受到抑制。如果有機會，您會考慮在天然氣領域做一些反週期的事情嗎？或許。但我現在在 Haynesville 和 Eagle Ford 之間的 BPX 內有 22 Tcf 的天然氣。因此，考慮到我們在天然氣方面還有很多年的發展前景，而且我們現在在美國最好的地方擁有資源，所以對我來說，它幾乎必須是超級便宜或免費的。

So I believe in countercyclical, that's what we've done. We're probably getting close to the limit of what we can do to effectively integrate it, and that's what's the driving consideration in mind as I think about slowing down a little bit moving forward. Hope that helps, Al. Sorry, you've got one more follow-up?

所以我相信反週期，這就是我們所做的。我們可能已經接近有效整合它的極限，這就是我在考慮放慢前進速度時所考慮的因素。希望有幫助，艾爾。抱歉，您還有後續嗎？

Yes, sort of BPX actually more liquids in Permian...

是的，二疊紀的 BPX 實際上是更多的液體...

I'm sorry...

對不起...

You met on BPX, more liquids in Permian rather than gas.

你在 BPX 上看過，二疊紀的液體多於天然氣。

Yes. liquids, I think we've got 8 to 10 years of runway right now with infill drilling. I think it's countercyclically. So you'll do acreage swaps, which we're doing all the time in BPX. I think we've done three big acreage swaps over the past few years that we don't talk about very much. So certainly, they're focused on those types of things. But with oil around $80, I'd wait until oil dipped before I did that. I'm sure oil will dip again to $60 some time in the future at some time I can't predict. And that's the time when you use the stronger balance sheet to go countercyclical as how I think about it, Al.

是的。液體，我認為我們現在有 8 到 10 年的填充鑽孔跑道。我認為這是逆週期的。因此，您將進行面積互換，這是我們在 BPX 中一直在做的事情。我認為過去幾年我們已經進行了三次大面積互換，但我們對此並沒有過多談論。當然，他們專注於這些類型的事情。但由於油價在 80 美元左右，我會等到油價下跌後再這樣做。我確信在未來某個時間（我無法預測）油價會再次跌至 60 美元。阿爾，正如我所想，正是在這個時候，你可以利用更強勁的資產負債表來實現反週期。

Peter Low from Redburn, Atlantic. First question, just on BPX. There's a strong production number in the quarter. Can you talk a bit about when you're expecting the next 2 central processing facilities to start up and should think that kind of when they come online, that will result in kind of an immediate step-up in production? Or are they filled more gradually?

來自大西洋雷德本的彼得洛 (Peter Low)。第一個問題，關於 BPX。本季的生產數據強勁。您能談談您預計下兩個中央處理設施何時啟動，並認為它們上線後會立即提高生產嗎？還是逐漸被填滿？

And then the second question was just on LNG and the target to increase that portfolio to 25 million tonnes. Does that include any volumes from Venture Global? And can you perhaps update just what's happening there?

第二個問題是關於液化天然氣以及將其投資組合增加到 2,500 萬噸的目標。這是否包括 Venture Global 的任何數量？您能否更新一下那裡發生的事情？

Yes. So thanks, Peter. On BPX, yes, so the next 2 facilities come online. Checkmate is tracking well to be online this year. And the final one comes online next year. The way to hold it is that we're paying at around about $500 million of our capital in BPX into completing this infrastructure build-out. That will then allow us a, to fill it, which is really important. So a drill and fill perspective.

是的。所以謝謝，彼得。在 BPX 上，是的，所以接下來的 2 個設施上線了。 Checkmate 今年上線的進展順利。最終版本將於明年上線。持有它的方法是，我們支付大約 5 億美元的 BPX 資本來完成基礎設施建設。這將使我們能夠填補它，這非常重要。因此，需要鑽取和填充視角。

And then we'll be able to take that capital and use it to put into our effective production drilling activity rather than using it to carry on completing the infrastructure. So that's going to help as well. So that's kind of the way to hold it is we're going to be able to fill those gathering units and then we're going to be able to redirect that capital to more productive uses as well.

然後我們將能夠利用這些資金並將其用於我們有效的生產鑽探活動，而不是用它來繼續完成基礎設施。所以這也會有所幫助。因此，持有它的一種方式是，我們將能夠填充這些收集單位，然後我們也將能夠將這些資本重新定向到更俱生產力的用途。

Great. Thanks, Kate. On LNG build-out, we're 23 in '23, 25 in '25 is the target. We expect to get additional volumes, as you say, from Venture, Tortue and Beach. If you go check the numbers, those add up to weigh more than 25. So that's why we feel very comfortable with 25 in '25. I'll be surprise different not higher than that, but let's not set too hard at performance contract for Carol in the room. As far as Venture itself, it continues in commercial dispute. I'm not going to get into any details on it other than to say that we will enforce our rights rigorously.

偉大的。謝謝，凱特。在液化天然氣建設方面，我們的目標是 23 年 23 家，25 年 25 家。正如您所說，我們預計將從 Venture、Tortue 和 Beach 獲得更多銷售。如果你去檢查數字，你會發現這些數字加起來超過了 25。這就是為什麼我們對 25 年的 25 感到非常滿意。我會感到驚訝的是不比這更高，但我們不要對卡羅爾在房間裡的表演合約設定得太嚴格。就 Venture 本身而言，其商業糾紛仍在持續。我不會透露任何細節，只是說我們將嚴格執行我們的權利。

One more question in the room, then we'll go back to the lines.

房間裡還有一個問題，然後我們回到隊列。

It's Kim Fustier from HSBC. You wrote off the vast majority of your initial $1.1 billion investment into U.S. offer win that was the Equinor JV. What's the path forward for those projects? And do you think enough has changed in your decision-making processes to ensure that something like this doesn't happen again going forward?

我是來自匯豐銀行的 Kim Fustier。您沖銷了最初 11 億美元投資中的絕大多數，該投資贏得了美國的收購要約，即 Equinor 合資企業。這些項目的前進道路是什麼？您認為您的決策過程發生了足夠的變化，以確保類似的事情不會再次發生嗎？

Secondly, I just wanted to ask about the robustness of project economics in the low-carbon space in the U.S., if the incentives were to change for whatever reason?

其次，我只是想問美國低碳領域專案經濟的穩健性，激勵措施是否會因某些原因而改變？

Sure. I guess maybe I'll tackle both of those. On the East Coast venture with Equinor, over time what we've decided is that integrated delivery models are much more important for us than a PPA-like model. Empire really is a PPA model. So it was time to divorce ourselves that Equinor carry forward with that, they want to do that. And for ourselves, we'll step away from that one. In exchange, we got some land that we can monetize as well as Beacon. Beacon's 2.5 gigawatts.

當然。我想也許我會解決這兩個問題。在與 Equinor 的東海岸合資企業中，隨著時間的推移，我們決定綜合交付模式對我們來說比類似 PPA 的模式更為重要。 Empire確實是PPA模式。因此，是時候與 Equinor 離婚了，他們希望這樣做。對於我們自己來說，我們將遠離這一點。作為交換，我們得到了一些可以貨幣化的土地以及信標。 Beacon 的功率為 2.5 吉瓦。

It stands the transfer integration. So we're #1 gas trader in the United States, #2 or 3 in power. We see the capacity to absorb that into that book and create some interesting value. We'll take our time to do this. We're not in any rush. The U.S. really needs to build out. And of course, we'll bring in partners, et cetera, over time. So that's how we're thinking about that.

它代表傳輸整合。因此，我們是美國排名第一的天然氣貿易商，實力排名第二或第三。我們看到了將其吸收到這本書中並創造一些有趣價值的能力。我們會花時間做這件事。我們並不著急。美國確實需要加強建設。當然，隨著時間的推移，我們會引入合作夥伴等等。這就是我們的想法。

As far as decision-making quality, I think back in 2020, we were taking this as a first step into the basin, recognizing that we were paying a premium to learn. We learned and we move on from that is, I think, the best way for me to describe it moving forward.

就決策品質而言，我想早在 2020 年，我們就將其作為進入盆地的第一步，認識到我們需要付出額外的代價來學習。我認為，我們吸取了教訓並繼續前進，這是我描述前進的最佳方式。

Economics in low carbon incentives, et cetera. I think we just need to remember that incentives exist everywhere inside the energy space across the United States and across most countries in the world. There is an equal incentive in oil and gas, called the intangible drilling credit, as there is RINs, as there is on the IRA. So the U.S. is a place that incentivizes energy provision across the wide range of it arrangement.

低碳激勵經濟學等。我認為我們只需要記住，在美國和世界上大多數國家的能源領域內，激勵措施無所不在。石油和天然氣領域有同等的激勵措施，稱為無形鑽探信貸，就像 RIN 和 IRA 一樣。因此，美國是一個在廣泛的能源安排中激勵能源供應的地方。

Sometimes we get a little bit forgetful. And we think it's only new energies that have those incentives. That is not true. As far as the new energies themselves, I think, Carol, with the Archaea model, we feel very good without the incentives to drive forward well above our returns thresholds if those incentives moved away. But to be honest, those incentives have been in place since the early 1970s.

有時我們會有點健忘。我們認為只有新能源才有這些動力。那不是真的。就新能源本身而言，卡羅爾，我認為，在古生菌模型中，如果沒有激勵措施，我們感覺非常好，如果這些激勵措施消失，我們就不會再有動力推動遠高於我們的回報閾值。但說實話，這些激勵措施自 20 世紀 70 年代初就開始實施。

They come and gone in different guises but biogas and biofuels, in particular, have had all kinds of incentives, if not at the federal level, then at the state level, as different constituencies want to transition.

它們以不同的形式來來去去，但沼氣和生物燃料尤其有各種各樣的激勵措施，如果不是在聯邦層面，那麼在州層面，因為不同的選區想要過渡。

Hydrogen in particular right now will be a place we have to watch. What happens, new regulations came out from the IRS that we're providing comments on. We'll just see -- have to -- we'll have to see how that progresses, and what the nation decides to do. They have the choice to continue to accelerate or they have the choice to decelerate that particular space. And we'll just have to pragmatically react to how the United States decides to move these things forward.

現在氫尤其是我們必須關注的地方。發生了什麼，我們正在提供評論的美國國稅局 (IRS) 出台了新規定。我們將拭目以待——我們必須看看進展如何，以及國家決定做什麼。他們可以選擇繼續加速，也可以選擇在特定空間減速。我們只需要對美國決定如何推動這些事情做出務實的反應。

But we have lots of opportunities inside Europe, lots of opportunities inside Australia, so we can always pivot to what the best returns are inside the portfolio. Hope that helps with those questions. Why don't we go back online now, Ryan, please?

但我們在歐洲有很多機會，在澳洲也有很多機會，所以我們總是可以轉向投資組合中的最佳回報。希望對這些問題有幫助。瑞安，我們為什麼不現在回到網路上呢？

Maybe a couple for me. On the refining side of the business, products results were quite weak this quarter. You've had a lot of moving pieces in the portfolio in recent years. And even though margins were weaker in the fourth quarter than they've been of late. They were still particularly seasonally relatively solid and above mid-cycle in most places, and you posted a loss in the business.

也許對我來說有幾個。在煉油業務方面，本季產品業績相當疲軟。近年來，您的作品集中有許多令人感動的作品。儘管第四季的利潤率比最近的水平要低。在大多數地方，它們在季節性上仍然相對穩定，並且高於週期中期，而您的業務卻出現了虧損。

So as we think about the earnings power of your refining business, can you help us understand on the quarter, maybe some of the moving pieces, whether one-off or specific trends that might have been headwinds? Was it a trading issue a matter of specific hit? Or how should we think about what was or was not maybe kind of repeatable on this fourth quarter?

因此，當我們考慮貴公司煉油業務的獲利能力時，您能否幫助我們了解本季的一些變化，無論是一次性的還是可能不利的特定趨勢？這是一個交易問題還是一個具體的打擊問題？或者我們該如何思考第四季哪些事情是可重複的，哪些是不可重複的？

And then the second question on Lightsource bp, you referenced mid-teens returns over the last 5 years, which is very impressive. We don't have a lot of visibility on that. However, maybe we'll get more going forward. But as you look over the next 5 years, could you maybe talk about some things that have or have not changed in the environment, particularly if you think about the build and farm down business? Are there -- are margins compressing on that side or not? How do you think about margins over the next 5 based on trends in that business versus the last 5?

然後是關於 Lightsource bp 的第二個問題，您提到了過去 5 年中的十幾歲回報率，這是非常令人印象深刻的。我們對此沒有太多了解。然而，也許我們未來會取得更多進展。但是，當您展望未來 5 年時，您能否談談環境中已經或未發生變化的一些事情，特別是當您考慮建造和農場業務時？那一側的利潤率是否正在壓縮？根據該業務與過去 5 年的趨勢，您如何看待未來 5 年的利潤率？

Super. Thanks, Ryan. Kate, do you want to take refineries. I'll take Lightsource?

極好的。謝謝，瑞安。凱特，你想佔領煉油廠嗎？我會選擇光源嗎？

Sure. Thanks, Ryan. Good morning. Thank you for the question. In the refining portfolio, we did signal a significant level of turnaround activity and maintenance in the fourth quarter. And it was a very heavy quarter, as I said, I think in my prepared remarks. We had a full site turnaround at Castellon. We also had unit-level towers at 2 other refineries.

當然。謝謝，瑞安。早安.感謝你的提問。在煉油產品組合中，我們確實表明第四季度的周轉活動和維護水準很高。正如我在準備好的發言中所說，這是一個非常沉重的季度。我們在卡斯特利翁進行了全面的現場改造。我們也在另外兩家煉油廠設有單元級塔。

So if you look at what's going on, I think credit to the team are -- availability is really high. So we're at 96.1% for the quarter. Our utilization as a consequence of the level of activity in those refinery turnarounds was down to around 84%. That's really what's driving it, coupled with the slight drop in margins that you recognize.

因此，如果你看看正在發生的事情，我認為團隊的功勞是——可用性非常高。所以本季的完成率為 96.1%。由於煉油廠檢修活動的活躍程度，我們的利用率下降至 84% 左右。這確實是推動它發展的原因，再加上你所認知到的利潤率略有下降。

But yes, it's around the level of activity that we are putting through those refineries to upgrade and make sure that they are maintained and solid as opposed to what's going on in the refinery margin environment.

但是，是的，這是圍繞我們對這些煉油廠進行升級的活動水平，並確保它們得到維護和穩定，而不是煉油廠利潤環境中發生的情況。

Yes. I think if you adjusted for those, Kate, they'd be quite comfortable profitable, in line with expectation.

是的。我認為，如果你針對這些進行調整，凱特，他們會很輕鬆地獲利，符合預期。

As far as Lightsource bp and trends, so as I talked about over the past few years, that's what the return cycle has been.

就Lightsource bp和趨勢而言，正如我過去幾年所談到的，這就是回報週期。

As interest rates have risen in 2023, it's been quite difficult to get prices and interest rates to match in a development flip model. In Australia, Lightsource was able to move transactions forward. In Europe, they were able to move transactions forward, so there wasn't a disparity between price and discount rate, but the United States was a challenge.

隨著 2023 年利率上升，在開發翻轉模型中使價格和利率相符非常困難。在澳大利亞，Lightsource 能夠推動交易。在歐洲，他們能夠推動交易，因此價格和折扣率之間沒有差異，但美國是一個挑戰。

And it was a challenge on pricing to get price high enough to match the discount rates. So they slowed down the program in the United States. That will be something that picks back up, as we see interest rates drop through '24 and '25. You guys will be able to guess interest rate trends better than I will, but we all read the same stuff in the media, I am sure. So I think that's one particular trend.

如何讓價格足夠高以匹配折扣率是定價方面的一個挑戰。所以他們放慢了美國的計畫。隨著我們看到利率在 24 年和 25 年期間下降，這將會有所回升。你們將能夠比我更好地猜測利率趨勢，但我確信我們都在媒體上閱讀相同的內容。所以我認為這是一個特殊的趨勢。

We do see lots of capacity for solar. There are more and more countries that are starting to develop solar. So I don't feel supply chain bottlenecks happening, and demand just continues to skyrocket. And I think especially the trend that is interesting is GenAI. And I think the more and more that corporations, individuals use GenAI, we'll see more and more demand for power.

我們確實看到了大量的太陽能發電能力。越來越多的國家開始發展太陽能。所以我不認為供應鏈出現瓶頸，需求只是持續飆升。我認為特別有趣的趨勢是 GenAI。我認為企業和個人使用 GenAI 的次數越來越多，我們將看到對電力的需求越來越多。

And I think we're going to need every little bit of renewables and natural gas we possibly can to help power of the world systems given that expansive demand inside GenAI. So I hope that gives a super high level overview, Ryan, for the question. Anybody back in the room? Irene. Sorry, I can see you behind the podium, Irene.

我認為，鑑於 GenAI 內部的廣泛需求，我們將需要盡可能多的再生能源和天然氣來幫助世界系統供電。所以我希望瑞安能夠對這個問題給出一個超高水準的概述。房間裡還有人嗎？艾琳.抱歉，我可以在講台後面看到你，艾琳。

Irene Himona, Societe Generale. Murray, you highlighted how moving from origination to execution is going to be key to delivering operational excellence. I'm curious as to how you do that in practice. So what levers do you have to drive a sort of cultural or working cultural change day to day?

艾琳希莫納，法國興業銀行。莫瑞，您強調了從發起到執行的轉變如何成為實現卓越營運的關鍵。我很好奇你在實踐中是如何做到這一點的。那麼，您需要什麼槓桿來推動日常文化或工作文化變革呢？

My second question, you highlighted throughout the presentation that amazing volatility we've obviously had in the last 3 or 4 years. If we do find ourselves in a world of 60, how -- I understand we will still get 80% of surplus cash is buyback. How should I think of the flexibility of the $16 billion of CapEx which you announced today in that scenario?

我的第二個問題，您在整個演示中強調了我們在過去三四年中明顯經歷的驚人波動。如果我們確實發現自己處於 60 歲的世界，我知道我們仍然會獲得 80% 的剩餘現金用於回購。在這種情況下，我應該如何看待您今天宣布的 160 億美元資本支出的靈活性？

Yes. Great. Thanks, Irene. Culture. I suppose it's what -- it's where we as leaders inside the team place our emphasis. Do we place the emphasis and the encouragement for new stuff? Or do we encourage people to get on with sanction and move forward? So there's something about, as a leadership team, we need to shift our focus to the execution side.

是的。偉大的。謝謝，艾琳。文化。我想這就是我們身為團隊內部領導者所強調的重點。我們是否重視並鼓勵新事物？或者我們鼓勵人們接受制裁並繼續前進？因此，作為領導團隊，我們需要將重點轉移到執行方面。

And then equally importantly, how do we align third-party contractors on that basis? How do we make sure the supply chains are robust and how do we gain confidence and then what we're doing will be as efficient as it possibly can be. So I don't think it's a material challenge to start constructing. The material challenge will be to turn off the old stuff and all the other things. That's the material challenge that we have that each and every one of us, as leaders, is constantly focusing on.

同樣重要的是，我們如何在此基礎上協調第三方承包商？我們如何確保供應鏈穩健，如何獲得信心，然後我們所做的事情將盡可能有效率。所以我認為開始建造並不是一個實質的挑戰。物質上的挑戰將是關掉舊東西和所有其他東西。這是我們面臨的物質挑戰，我們每個人作為領導者都在不斷關注。

I'm looking at Leigh-Ann, who runs our digital. Everybody wants to spend lots of money on digital and do their favorite programs. The key is in really, really getting control in it and focusing it down to only the big things that matter. So I don't know, maybe not every company is like us, but that's always our challenges turning off the old stuff.

我正在看 Leigh-Ann，她負責我們的數位業務。每個人都想在數位化上花很多錢並做自己喜歡的節目。關鍵在於真正真正地控制它，並將其集中在重要的大事情上。所以我不知道，也許不是每個公司都像我們一樣，但這始終是我們關閉舊東西的挑戰。

On $60 world, we actually have quite a bit of flexibility inside -- you changed your oil and gas drilling plants, and we've got quite a bit of flexibility across the portfolio to swing CapEx down materially, if we needed to. Kate, I don't know, would you like to add anything to that one?

在 60 美元的世界中，我們實際上擁有相當大的內部靈活性 - 你改變了石油和天然氣鑽探工廠，並且我們在整個投資組合中擁有相當大的靈活性，可以在需要時大幅降低資本支出。凱特，我不知道，你想補充什麼嗎？

No, I think that's absolutely right, Murray. I think where we started 2023, we're at 16 to 18. And as we went through, we tightened that write-down and by the time we got to 3Q, we were saying around 16.

不，我認為這是絕對正確的，穆雷。我認為從 2023 年開始，我們的數字是 16 到 18。隨著時間的推移，我們收緊了減記，到第三季時，我們說的是 16 左右。

And I think for me, the most important thing is creating the right level of focus. As you'd expect, at this stage, we've probably got a fair bit of CapEx committed for 2024. And as Murray said, we've got a lot more flexibility with regard to '25. And I was hold BPX as my big optionality within that frame to move things up and down if we need to make fast reactions. But what I would say is that the strength of the balance sheet, the resilience we've created as a consequence of that means that we don't have to make sharp reactions and we can take our time, but we have flexibility.

我認為對我來說，最重要的是創造正確的焦點。正如您所期望的，在現階段，我們可能已經為 2024 年承諾了相當多的資本支出。正如 Murray 所說，我們在 25 年方面擁有了更多的靈活性。如果我們需要做出快速反應，我將 BPX 作為我在該框架內的重要選擇，可以上下移動事物。但我想說的是，資產負債表的實力，以及我們由此創造的彈性，意味著我們不必做出尖銳的反應，我們可以慢慢來，但我們有彈性。

Thanks, Irene. Let's go to online again. Bertrand, please.

謝謝，艾琳。我們再上網吧。伯特蘭，請。

Yes. Congrats for the result, Murray and Kate and the clarity of the overall message. Two questions, if I may. So one follow-up on the offshore wind. Do you have a plan for FID in the next 2 years, by example, in the U.K.?

是的。祝賀莫瑞和凱特的結果以及整體訊息的清晰度。如果可以的話，有兩個問題。這是離岸風電的後續行動。您是否有未來 2 年內 FID 的計劃（例如在英國）？

And the second question is, as you mentioned, reserve replacement ratio was quite low for both '22 and '23. Reserves to production life, SEC basis is just around 8 years, and this is, by the way, where you want to sit in the coming years. Can you remind us why 8 years is the right number for BP going forward?

第二個問題是，正如您所提到的，22 年和 23 年的準備金替代率都相當低。儲量到生產壽命，SEC 基礎約為 8 年，順便說一句，這就是您未來幾年想要坐的位置。您能否提醒我們為什麼 8 年是 BP 未來發展的正確數字？

Great. Thanks, Bertrand. I can take the reserve replacement ratio. Kate, do you want to think about FIDs for offshore U.K.?

偉大的。謝謝，伯特蘭。我可以拿準備金替代率。凱特，您想考慮英國離岸的最終投資決定嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Go ahead.

前進。

Yes. So I would have said the U.K. offshore wind projects are progressing well. We've got good clarity around grid connections, which was one of the most important things. So we'll be moving through that.

是的。所以我想說英國離岸風電計畫進展順利。我們對電網連接非常清楚，這是最重要的事情之一。所以我們將繼續討論這個問題。

In terms of FID, probably not this side of the end of 2025, but probably early once we get to the other side of that. I say we're progressing well. We've got clarity on good connections as the most important things to give us certainty as we move towards FID. And we're working hard with making sure that the supply chain is set up.

就最終投資決定而言，可能不會在 2025 年底的此時，但一旦我們到達另一端，可能會很早。我說我們進展順利。我們清楚地認識到，良好的聯繫是最重要的事情，可以讓我們在邁向最終投資決定時獲得確定性。我們正在努力確保供應鏈的建立。

There has been quite a lot of inflation inside the supply chain for offshore wind right across the remit of what we require. So we're managing that as we approach FID, and I say we'll take that decision as we get clarity and as we're confident on the turn situation, and let's see how the political environment shapes up in the U.K. over the next 2 years as well. But at the moment -- yes, towards the end of the 2-year time frame, early following that is how we're thinking about it currently.

離岸風電供應鏈內部存在相當大的通貨膨脹，而這恰恰超出了我們的要求。因此，當我們接近最終投資決定時，我們正在管理這一點，我說，當我們變得清晰並且我們對形勢的轉變充滿信心時，我們將做出這一決定，讓我們看看英國的政治環境在接下來的時間裡會如何形成也2年了。但目前——是的，在兩年時間框架即將結束時，我們目前正在考慮這一點。

I think on reserve replacement ratio, I'm happy at 8. We talked about 8 at Denver. It's a conservative 8, I think, is a way to think about this. Over time, we've really, really tightened the definition of what reserves you can book to a place of conservatism where this 8 is -- would have probably been much higher a decade ago so I think that's just the first thing to have in your mind.

我認為就儲備替代率而言，我對 8 感到高興。我們在丹佛談到了 8。我認為這是一個保守的 8 分，這是思考這個問題的一種方式。隨著時間的推移，我們真的非常非常嚴格地把你可以預訂的預訂的定義收緊到一個保守主義的地方，這個8在十年前可能會高得多，所以我認為這只是你的第一件事。頭腦。

Second, I worry more about proved developed reserve replacement ratio than I do total proved reserves. And as long as you're 90% plus, I feel good about the ability to sustain a business of our scale. And when you see the ARA, you'll see that our numbers are looking very good on proved developed reserve replacement ratio.

其次，我更擔心探明已開發儲量替代率，而不是總探明儲量。只要你的成功率超過 90%，我就對維持我們規模的業務的能力感到滿意。當您看到 ARA 時，您會發現我們的數據在已證實的已開發儲量替代率方面看起來非常好。

Moving forward then, obviously, all these sanctions will drive our PUD bookings up higher, as we sanction these things across the next 2 years. So I think there's just -- it's a bit more conservative than it has been in the past. And that's why it feels okay to me. Bertrand, I hope that helps.

展望未來，顯然，所有這些制裁將推動我們的 PUD 預訂量更高，因為我們將在未來兩年內制裁這些事情。所以我認為，現在比過去更保守了。這就是為什麼我感覺還不錯。伯特蘭，我希望這會有所幫助。

Any more questions in the room? I've got two more online.

房間裡還有什麼問題嗎？我網上還有兩個

Giacomo Romeo, Jefferies. First question is on your convenience and EV charging EBITDA targets. Obviously, you don't give us a split and it's understandable. Just I'd like to understand how much this -- the outlook -- the split between the 2 has changed in your mind over time? I've noticed that your customer touch points perhaps are not growing as fast as you thought. That's potentially impacted your convenience EBITDA growth, but perhaps you are accelerating growth on EV charging.

賈科莫·羅密歐，傑弗里斯。第一個問題是關於您的便利性和電動車充電 EBITDA 目標。顯然，你不給我們分裂，這是可以理解的。我只是想了解，隨著時間的推移，這兩者之間的分歧在你心中發生了多大的變化？我注意到您的客戶接觸點的成長速度可能沒有您想像的那麼快。這可能會影響您的便利性 EBITDA 成長，但也許您正在加速電動車充電的成長。

So just trying to understand how sort of you're thinking, how you're going to get to those '25 and '30 targets in your mind and how that has changed? And if I can ask a clarification on -- I'm sorry, your definition of here on current market conditions in the context of your buyback plan, very welcome the visibility.

那麼，只是想了解您的想法如何，您將如何實現您心中的 25 和 30 目標，以及情況發生了怎樣的變化？如果我可以要求澄清——抱歉，您在回購計劃的背景下對當前市場狀況的定義，非常歡迎您的關注。

Just trying to understand, as you mentioned Murray, it's a volatile macro environment, how much willing are you to lean on the balance sheet if there is a, say, blip in the macro for a couple of quarters and -- or should we look at this as an 80% on whatever is the outlook for the year?

正如你提到的莫瑞，我只是想了解，這是一個不穩定的宏觀環境，如果宏觀環境出現幾個季度的波動，或者我們應該看看，你有多大意願依靠資產負債表？80%的人對今年的前景有何看法？

Go for it Kate, and I'll sweep up on convenience and electrification.

凱特，加油，我會研究便利性和電氣化。

So on current market conditions, I'll say -- what I said to start with which is I'd look at where our basket of commodities has been year-to-date. It gives you a really good sense of how we're thinking about that.

因此，在當前的市場狀況下，我要說的是，我首先要看看我們的一籃子商品今年迄今的表現。它讓您非常清楚我們是如何思考這個問題的。

We've got the ability to tolerate movements. You're going to see movements in our debt going through the next 4 quarters of this year based on purely what's going on inside the business so that even looking at the environment because of the weighting of CapEx in the first half and divestments in the second half. So you're going to see it move around. I'm comfortable with that.

我們有能力容忍運動。你將看到我們的債務在今年接下來的四個季度中的變化純粹基於業務內部發生的情況，因此即使考慮到環境，因為上半年資本支出的權重和下半年的撤資一半。所以你會看到它四處移動。我對此很滿意。

Our net debt at 20.9 gives us quite an ability to tolerate that movement. And as I say, if we get a fundamental disconnect in the market, then maybe we'll take another look. But I think you should hold it as there's a fair degree of tolerance around the conditions that we've had today across oil, gas and refining.

我們 20.9 的淨債務使我們有能力承受這種波動。正如我所說，如果我們發現市場出現根本性脫節，那麼也許我們會重新檢視。但我認為你應該持有它，因為我們今天在石油、天然氣和煉油領域所面臨的條件有相當程度的容忍度。

And I suppose we have said that the $1.75 billion this quarter is done and $1.75 billion and $1.75 billion in the next 2 quarters as well as, not subject to market conditions. So that's a fair degree of certainty.

我想我們已經說過，本季的 17.5 億美元已經完成，未來 2 個季度的 17.5 億美元和 17.5 億美元也將完成，不受市場條件的影響。所以這是相當確定的。

On convenience electrification, there are a lot of things that have moved over the past 4 years. I think just some highlights in our mind. We thought fleets would move first. But given recessionary pressures and some relief from governments, fleets have slowed down. Contrasted with that, consumers have moved faster, mandates, preferences, whatever. So we found ourselves over time. We thought we'd be doing fleets as we started this. It's actually drifted more towards individual as opposed to fleets.

在便利電氣化方面，過去四年發生了很多事情。我認為只是我們心中的一些亮點。我們認為艦隊會先行動。但鑑於經濟衰退的壓力和政府的一些緩解措施，船隊的速度已經放緩。相較之下，消費者的行動速度更快，無論是要求、偏好等等。所以隨著時間的推移，我們發現了自己。我們一開始就認為我們會做艦隊。實際上，它更傾向於個人而不是艦隊。

We started with thinking about 12 countries, is where we focus for now, given adoption levels. We're really focused on 4 countries, U.S., U.K., Germany, China. And so you've seen us very, very focused on where are the places that we think maximum adoption rates will happen. And we see it. You see the metrics on sales, et cetera. You can see that 2 of those countries are profitable already, and we feel very comfortable that we'll move into profitability with the other countries as well. So those are the kind of changes.

我們首先考慮了 12 個國家/地區，考慮到採用程度，這是我們目前關注的重點。我們真正關注 4 個國家：美國、英國、德國、中國。所以你已經看到我們非常非常關注我們認為最大採用率會發生的地方。我們看到了。您會看到銷售等指標。您可以看到其中兩個國家已經實現盈利，我們對其他國家/地區也將實現盈利感到非常放心。這些都是變化。

We've deployed less capital than we thought we would. Why? Because we concentrated down to 4 countries as opposed to going after 12 countries. So that's the EV side, but the 2025 target, we're still saying get into profit in 2025. So no change to it, just a bit less capital than we originally would have been thinking.

我們部署的資本比我們想像的要少。為什麼？因為我們集中在 4 個國家，而不是追求 12 個國家。這就是電動車方面，但 2025 年的目標，我們仍然說在 2025 年實現盈利。所以沒有改變，只是資本比我們最初想像的要少一點。

On the convenience side, it's remained really robust. I'm really surprised about how robust convenience has been. Ex-TA growing 9% per year in gross margin despite the fact that you had COVID, lockdown, invasion, recession. You've got a perfect storm for that business. But given the power of the brands that we have like a Marks & Spencer here, and I can say the same for other countries, given the great work the teams are doing on digitizing, integrating the business in the U.S. together, we've started to integrate ampm with Thorntons with TA together in a way that we haven't in the past. You're just driving much more efficiency into that business.

在便利性方面，它仍然非常強大。我對如此強大的便利性感到非常驚訝。儘管經歷了新冠疫情、封鎖、入侵、經濟衰退，前 TA 的毛利率仍以每年 9% 的速度成長。你的生意已經經歷了一場完美的風暴。但考慮到我們這裡擁有的瑪莎百貨等品牌的力量，我可以對其他國家說同樣的話，考慮到團隊在數位化、整合美國業務方面所做的出色工作，我們已經開始以我們過去從未有過的方式將ampm、Thorntons 和TA 整合在一起。您只是大大提高了該業務的效率。

So what will happen, the 1.5 will obviously largely be convenience, and it's more convenient than I would have expected, to be honest, given the headwinds that we faced. So I hope that helps a little bit, and you can always catch Emma afterwards to find out more from her. I think we're down to the last 2 questions online. Matt, go ahead.

那麼會發生什麼，1.5 顯然很大程度上會帶來便利，說實話，考慮到我們面臨的阻力，它比我預期的更方便。所以我希望這能有所幫助，之後你可以隨時聯繫艾瑪，從她那裡了解更多。我想我們現在只剩下最後兩個線上問題了。馬特，繼續吧。

Two, please, if I could. On distributions firstly, can you just talk about to what extent the change from 60% to 80% is reflective of more pro-cyclical based confidence in medium-term macro and trading conditions? And linked to that, can we now think of the 80% as being fully through cycle as opposed to a more prolonged down cycle scenario in the future starting to trigger the case for reverting back towards 60%.

如果可以的話，請給我兩個。首先關於分佈，您能否談談從 60% 到 80% 的變化在多大程度上反映了對中期宏觀和交易條件更加順週期的信心？與此相關的是，我們現在是否可以將 80% 視為完全經歷了週期，而不是未來更長的下行週期情境開始觸發回到 60% 的情況。

And then secondly, it feels like the emphasis on simplification and efficiency has been enhanced today, if anything versus the recent past? Is that fair? And if so, where do you see incremental opportunities that perhaps weren't called out as much in the past?

其次，感覺今天對簡化和效率的重視得到了加強，與最近的過去相比有何不同？這樣公平嗎？如果是這樣，您在哪裡看到了過去可能沒有那麼多的增量機會？

Great. Super. Kate, do you want to tackle the first one?

偉大的。極好的。凱特，你想解決第一個問題嗎？

Sure. Yes. Thanks, Matt. Yes, 80%, I think, very much through cycle. If you think about where we've been since the inception of the share buyback, we're around 65% of surplus cash to share buybacks. And we've done that while making huge progress on our balance sheet. Our balance sheet is now in much better shape. We feel good about it. As I've said a number of times this morning, we can tolerate movements, so we feel huge confidence in our balance sheet.

當然。是的。謝謝，馬特。是的，我認為 80% 很大程度上是透過週期來實現的。如果你想想我們自股票回購開始以來的情況，你會發現我們大約有 65% 的剩餘現金用於股票回購。我們做到了這一點，同時在資產負債表上取得了巨大進展。我們的資產負債表現在狀況好多了。我們對此感覺很好。正如我今天早上多次說過的那樣，我們可以容忍波動，因此我們對我們的資產負債表充滿信心。

We feel huge confidence in the business performance and the ongoing momentum and delivery. So I mean, if there's a fundamental change, then we'll look. But right now, I'm confident that we can be completely clear that this 80% of surplus is going to be through cycle. This is an upgrade, and it's pretty much in line with the pro rata upgrade over 4Q and the first 2 quarters of next year, moving from (inaudible) pretty much pro rata with that, but -- so it's about confidence in our balance sheet, confidence in our business performance and the ability to tolerate movements around.

我們對業務表現以及持續的動力和交付充滿信心。所以我的意思是，如果有根本性的改變，那麼我們就會注意。但現在，我相信我們可以完全清楚這 80% 的盈餘將透過循環。這是一次升級，與第四季度和明年前兩個季度的按比例升級基本一致，從（聽不清楚）幾乎按比例升級，但是 - 所以這關係到我們對資產負債表的信心、對我們業務表現的信心以及容忍周遭變動的能力。

Yes. And then on simplification, I think what I'd say is there are lots of opportunities. A new team we can reflect on and think about how we can work together more effectively. We can simplify our narrative, which you started seeing us do today. We can simplify overlap inside organizational structures that we've talked about today. We can simplify buyback guidance, which you've seen today.

是的。關於簡化，我認為我想說的是有很多機會。我們可以反思並思考如何更有效合作的新團隊。我們可以簡化我們的敘述，正如你們今天開始看到的那樣。我們可以簡化今天討論的組織結構內部的重疊。我們可以簡化您今天看到的回購指引。

And there's a long list of these things that the leadership team and I are thinking about. And our challenge is how do we just gradually do these things over time. driving efficiency into the business at the same time that we keep superstructure strong and keep the drive and focus on the strategy is strong. So that's really what I'd say.

我和領導團隊正在考慮一長串的事情。我們的挑戰是如何隨著時間的推移逐步完成這些事情。在我們保持上層建築強大、保持對策略的驅動力和關注的同時，提高業務效率。這就是我想說的話。

But the efficiency drive, we'll be able to do an awful lot more with digital, now that we've got GenAI inside. We'll do an awful lot more as we progress the digitization of the downstream business. We have offshore centers to build up now. That will drive an awful lot of efficiency into the business as well. So we -- I think we're enthusiastic, and we see a lot of opportunity in this space about simplicity, focus and then hard focus on returns.

但為了提高效率，既然我們已經有了 GenAI，我們將能夠利用數位技術做更多的事情。隨著下游業務數位化的進展，我們將做更多的事情。我們現在有離岸中心要建立。這也將大大提高業務效率。所以我們——我認為我們很熱情，我們在這個領域看到了很多關於簡單、專注以及對回報的關注的機會。

Thanks for your question, Matt. And the last question goes to Menno.

謝謝你的提問，馬特。最後一個問題問門諾。

Thanks for squeezing me and I know it's been a long call. I'll just start with question on the Paleogene as the key driver of liquids growth in the -- gone through 2030. Can you just give us an update on where things stand at Tiber and Kaskida? And what are the key risks in bringing on initial volumes in that 2028 time frame?

謝謝你催促我，我知道這是一通漫長的電話。我首先會問古近紀作為 2030 年液體增長的關鍵驅動力的問題。您能給我們介紹一下台伯河和卡斯基達的最新情況嗎？在 2028 年的時間範圍內實現初始銷售的主要風險是什麼？

And then my second question, I believe, is for Kate, just on divestments which fell a bit short of 2023 guidance. Is there anything to read into there? Is that largely a timing issue? And I guess the second part of that is how much of a priority is getting the next, call it, $2 billion to $3 billion of asset sales across the line, given your confidence in the balance sheet?

我認為，我的第二個問題是問凱特的，關於撤資，該撤資略低於 2023 年的指引。那裡有什麼值得讀的嗎？這主要是時間問題嗎？我想第二部分是，考慮到您對資產負債表的信心，獲得下一個（稱之為）20 億至 30 億美元的資產銷售有多優先？

Kate, why don't you start on the divestment.

凱特，你為什麼不開始撤資？

Thanks, Menno. Yes, a few things on divestments. Yes, we were slightly short of our guidance that we put out at the end of the third quarter. I think you wouldn't be surprised to hear me say that, as Murray has talked about a lot. We are hugely focused on value. And if I get the sense of transaction isn't delivering value because I'm trying to hit a certain deadline to close it, I'm not going to do that.

謝謝，門諾。是的，關於撤資的一些事情。是的，我們略低於第三季末發布的指導。我想你聽到我這麼說你不會感到驚訝，因為穆雷已經談過很多了。我們非常注重價值。如果我覺得交易沒有帶來價值，因為我試圖在一定的期限內完成交易，我就不會這麼做。

So there's 1 or 2 that we have allowed to move into 2024. We're just going through the process again to make sure that we're getting maximum return for those assets. And that is what I'm going to be focused on delivering with regard to the divestment target.

因此，我們允許將 1 或 2 個資產移至 2024 年。我們只是再次執行此流程，以確保我們獲得這些資產的最大回報。這就是我將重點放在的撤資目標。

Broadly, at the moment, I would say we're on track for the 25 by '25. Let's see how it goes. I'm confident in the 2 to 3 that we've said we're guiding for 2024. But as I say, I'm much more driven by getting value for the transactions we're executing. I'm not going to be solely driven by hitting a number and a target if that doesn't make sense, and we're not getting the returns that we need so that's how we're going to be looking at it, and that's what we're going to be focused on.

總的來說，目前，我想說我們正朝著 25 年前的 25 目標邁進。讓我們看看進展如何。我對我們所說的 2024 年指導目標中的 2 到 3 個目標充滿信心。但正如我所說，我更願意為我們正在執行的交易獲取價值。如果這沒有意義的話，我不會僅僅通過達到一個數字和一個目標來驅動，而且我們沒有得到我們需要的回報，所以這就是我們將如何看待它，那就是我們將重點關注什麼。

And what a nice way to end the conversation on a Paleogene question, 9 billion barrels of oil in place, highly discovered resource across Kaskida, Tiber, Gila exploration opportunities with new acreage that we picked up as well. It's time for BP to open that basin up again after a 15-year hiatus. So we're really excited about it. We have full teams on Kaskida and Tiber moving forward right now. Kaskida, we hope to hit FID this year. Let's see how it goes.

這是結束關於古近紀問題的對話的好方法，有 90 億桶石油儲量，在 Kaskida、台伯河、希拉地區高度發現的資源以及我們也獲得的新面積的勘探機會。 BP 是時候在中斷 15 年後再次開放該盆地了。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。我們現在有完整的團隊在卡斯基達和台伯河上向前邁進。 Kaskida，我們希望今年能達到 FID。讓我們看看進展如何。

I think the principal challenge in time line will be yard space. We're just sounding out yards now as we go and when you can get slots inside the yards to build these things. The subsurface feels derisked now. There's enough production analogs around Kaskida from similar fields with similar characteristics so I don't feel there's really any risk on the subsurface perspective, probably just more upside than risk.

我認為時間線的主要挑戰將是院子空間。我們現在只是在探查院子，看看什麼時候可以在院子裡找到空位來建造這些東西。現在地下感覺已經不再有危險了。 Kaskida 周圍有足夠多的類似油田具有相似特徵的生產類似物，因此我認為從地下角度看並不存在任何風險，可能只是上行空間大於風險。

The development cost looks very competitive. The economics look competitive so it will really be slot timing and we'll update you with that as we go through the year.

開發成本看起來非常有競爭力。經濟看起來很有競爭力，所以這確實是時間安排，我們會在今年的時候向您通報最新情況。

Tiber will be a follow-on from Kaskida. You'll be doing these in sequence. And let's see, we haven't -- let's see where we go from Kaskida to Tiber. So I think my encouragement to the team is to do everything safe with cycle time. That's what creates the most value for the corporation to save cycle time. And that's what Gordon, you and I are working on, on Kaskida and Tiber.

Tiber 將是 Kaskida 的後續產品。您將按順序執行這些操作。讓我們看看，我們還沒有——讓我們看看從卡斯基達到台伯河的去向。所以我認為我對團隊的鼓勵是在周期時間內安全地完成所有事情。這就是為公司創造最大價值以節省週期時間的原因。這就是戈登、你和我正在為卡斯基達和台伯河所做的努力。

So thank you, everybody, for attending today here in person and online. It's much appreciated. Just a few final words. Our destination is unchanged, IOC to IEC, but we're going to be simpler, more focused, more efficient and really driving for value. Thanks very much, everyone, for taking the time today to visit with us and look forward to seeing you in the future. Bye-bye.

謝謝大家今天親自和線上參加。非常感謝。最後說幾句話。我們的目標沒有改變，從 IOC 到 IEC，但我們將變得更簡單、更專注、更有高效，真正追求價值。非常感謝大家今天抽出時間來參觀我們，並期待將來見到您。再見。