英國石油 (BP) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the BP presentation to the financial community webcast and conference call. I now hand over to Craig Marshall, Head of Investor Relations.

歡迎收看 BP 在金融界網絡廣播和電話會議上的演講。我現在交給投資者關係主管 Craig Marshall。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to BP's First Quarter 2023 Results Presentation. And I'm here today with Murray Auchincloss, our Chief Financial Officer.

各位早上好，歡迎來到 BP 2023 年第一季度業績發布會。今天我和我們的首席財務官 Murray Auchincloss 一起來到這裡。

Before we begin today, let me draw your attention to our cautionary statement. During today's presentation, we will make forward-looking statements, including those that refer to our estimates, plans and expectations. Actual results and outcomes could differ materially due to factors we note on this slide and in our U.K. and SEC filings. Please refer to our annual report, stock exchange announcement and SEC filings for more details. These documents are available on our website.

在我們今天開始之前，讓我提請您注意我們的警告聲明。在今天的演講中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，包括那些涉及我們的估計、計劃和預期的陳述。由於我們在這張幻燈片以及我們在英國和美國證券交易委員會的備案文件中註意到的因素，實際結果和成果可能會有重大差異。有關更多詳細信息，請參閱我們的年度報告、證券交易所公告和美國證券交易委員會備案文件。這些文件可在我們的網站上找到。

I will now hand over to Murray.

我現在將交給默里。

Thanks, Craig. Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us. We are here today to report on BP's first quarter 2023 results.

謝謝，克雷格。大家好，感謝您加入我們。我們今天在這里報告 BP 2023 年第一季度的業績。

First, we continue to deliver resilient operational and financial performance. For the first quarter, underlying earnings were $5 billion, and we reduced net debt to $21.2 billion. Second, we are executing against our disciplined financial frame, including the announcement of a further $1.75 billion share buyback. And third, we are advancing at pace with our transformation to an integrated energy company.

首先，我們繼續提供有彈性的運營和財務業績。第一季度，基礎收益為 50 億美元，我們將淨債務減少至 212 億美元。其次，我們正在執行我們嚴格的財務框架，包括宣布進一步回購 17.5 億美元的股票。第三，我們正在加快向綜合能源公司的轉型。

Since reporting fourth quarter results, we have made progress toward our 2025 oil and gas production target with a safe start-up of Mad Dog Phase 2 in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, the KGD6-MJ project offshore India is in the final stages of commissioning with 2 wells open to flow gas and full start-up expected later this quarter.

自報告第四季度業績以來，我們在實現 2025 年石油和天然氣生產目標方面取得了進展，墨西哥灣的 Mad Dog 二期工程安全啟動。此外，印度近海的 KGD6-MJ 項目正處於調試的最後階段，有 2 口井開放供氣，預計本季度晚些時候將全面啟動。

We have also further strengthened our resilient oil and gas portfolio, announcing our intention to form a JV with ADNOC focused on gas development and international areas of mutual interest, including the Eastern Mediterranean; BP expects to contribute assets to form the JV and has made a nonbinding offer with ADNOC to acquire 50% of NewMed Energy; advancing our Kaskida project in the Gulf of Mexico to concept selection; and agreeing to acquire Shell's 27% interest in the Browse project, offshore Australia, subject to approvals.

我們還進一步加強了我們具有彈性的石油和天然氣產品組合，宣布我們打算與 ADNOC 成立一家合資企業，專注於天然氣開發和共同感興趣的國際領域，包括東地中海； BP 預計將出資組建合資企業，並已向 ADNOC 提出收購 NewMed Energy 50% 股權的非約束性要約；將我們在墨西哥灣的 Kaskida 項目推進到概念選擇階段；並同意收購殼牌在澳大利亞近海 Browse 項目中 27% 的權益，但須獲得批准。

We have agreed to acquire TravelCenters of America, which is expected to almost double our convenience gross margin and provide growth opportunities across 4 of our 5 transition growth engines. We have continued momentum in executing our fast, on-the-go and fleets EV charging strategy. This includes a strategic collaboration agreement with Iberdrola with plans to accelerate the rollout of EV charging infrastructure in Spain and Portugal, and a new global mobility agreement with Uber. And in low carbon energy, our hydrogen and CCS strategy is progressing with the U.K. government selecting 3 BP-led projects to proceed to the next stage of development.

我們已同意收購美國的 TravelCenters，預計這將使我們的便利毛利率幾乎翻一番，並為我們 5 個轉型增長引擎中的 4 個提供增長機會。我們在執行快速、移動和車隊 EV 充電策略方面繼續保持勢頭。這包括與 Iberdrola 的戰略合作協議，計劃加速在西班牙和葡萄牙推出電動汽車充電基礎設施，以及與優步的新全球移動協議。在低碳能源方面，我們的氫能和 CCS 戰略正在推進，英國政府選擇了 3 個 BP 主導的項目進入下一階段的發展。

Turning to results. In the first quarter, we reported a headline profit of $8.2 billion. Allowing for post-tax adjusting items of $3.7 billion and an inventory holding loss of $500 million, our underlying replacement cost profit was $5 billion despite the backdrop of lower average commodity prices.

轉向結果。第一季度，我們報告的總體利潤為 82 億美元。考慮到 37 億美元的稅後調整項目和 5 億美元的庫存持有損失，儘管商品平均價格較低，但我們的基礎重置成本利潤為 50 億美元。

Turning to business group performance compared to the fourth quarter. In gas & low carbon energy, the result benefited from an exceptional gas marketing and trading result, partly offset by lower gas realizations. In oil production & operations, the result reflects lower liquids and gas realizations.

轉向與第四季度相比的業務集團業績。在天然氣和低碳能源方面，這一結果得益於出色的天然氣營銷和交易結果，部分被較低的天然氣實現所抵消。在石油生產和運營中，結果反映了較低的液體和氣體實現。

In customers & products, the products result reflects a lower level of turnaround activity and a very strong oil trading result, partly offset by lower refining margins. The customers result reflects lower retail fuel margins, partially offset by a higher result in Castrol. For the first quarter, BP has announced a dividend of $0.0661 per ordinary share payable in the second quarter.

在客戶和產品方面，產品結果反映了較低水平的周轉活動和非常強勁的石油交易結果，部分被較低的煉油利潤率所抵消。客戶的結果反映了較低的零售燃料利潤率，部分被嘉實多較高的結果所抵消。對於第一季度，BP 宣佈在第二季度支付每股普通股 0.0661 美元的股息。

Moving to cash flow. Operating cash flow was $7.6 billion in the first quarter. This includes a working capital build of $1.4 billion after adjusting for inventory holding losses, fair value accounting effects and other adjusting items. The working capital outflow includes the impact of timing of annual incentive payments to employees. Capital expenditure was $3.6 billion, and disposal proceeds were $800 million.

轉向現金流。第一季度的經營現金流為 76 億美元。這包括在調整庫存持有損失、公允價值會計影響和其他調整項目後增加的 14 億美元營運資金。營運資金流出包括對員工年度獎勵支付時間的影響。資本支出為 36 億美元，處置收益為 8 億美元。

During the quarter, we repurchased $2.4 billion worth of shares. And the $2.75 billion program announced in the fourth quarter 2022 results was completed on April 28. Despite the working capital build, surplus cash flow was $2.3 billion, and net debt was reduced to $21.2 billion. Taking into account the cumulative level of an outlook for 2023 surplus cash flow, BP intends to execute a further $1.75 billion buyback prior to announcing second quarter results.

本季度，我們回購了價值 24 億美元的股票。而在 2022 年第四季度業績中公佈的 27.5 億美元計劃已於 4 月 28 日完成。儘管營運資金有所增加，但盈餘現金流為 23 億美元，淨債務減少至 212 億美元。考慮到 2023 年盈餘現金流前景的累積水平，BP 打算在公佈第二季度業績之前進一步執行 17.5 億美元的回購。

Looking ahead in the second quarter, we will make a scheduled payment of $1.2 billion relating to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill settlement. And subject to shareholder approval, we expect to complete the $1.3 billion acquisition of TravelCenters of America.

展望第二季度，我們將按計劃支付 12 億美元，用於解決墨西哥灣漏油事件。在股東批准的情況下，我們預計將完成對美國 TravelCenters 的 13 億美元收購。

Turning to our disciplined financial frame where our 5 priorities and our guidance for 2023 are unchanged. A resilient dividend remains our first priority. This is underpinned by a cash balance point of $40 per barrel Brent, $11 RMM and $3 Henry Hub. Our second priority is to maintain a strong investment-grade credit rating. We intend to allocate 40% of 2023 surplus cash flow to further strengthen the balance sheet. Recognizing the significant progress made, we are now on positive outlook with S&P, Moody's and Fitch.

轉向我們紀律嚴明的財務框架，其中我們的 5 個優先事項和我們對 2023 年的指導沒有改變。具有彈性的股息仍然是我們的首要任務。這是由布倫特原油每桶 40 美元、RMM 11 美元和 Henry Hub 3 美元的現金餘額點支撐的。我們的第二要務是維持強大的投資級信用評級。我們打算分配 2023 年盈餘現金流的 40%，以進一步加強資產負債表。認識到所取得的重大進展，我們現在對標準普爾、穆迪和惠譽給予正面展望。

Third and fourth, we will continue to invest with discipline in our transition growth engines and in our oil, gas and refining businesses. Our guidance of $16 billion to $18 billion capital expenditure for 2023 is unchanged. And as a reminder, this includes inorganic capital expenditure.

第三和第四，我們將繼續有紀律地投資於我們的轉型增長引擎以及我們的石油、天然氣和煉油業務。我們對 2023 年 160 億美元至 180 億美元資本支出的指導意見保持不變。提醒一下，這包括無機資本支出。

And fifth, we remain committed to returning 60% of 2023 surplus cash flow to buybacks, subject to maintaining a strong investment-grade credit rating. At around $60 per barrel and subject to the Board's discretion each quarter, we continue to expect to be able to deliver share buybacks of around $4 billion per annum, at the lower end of the $14 billion to $18 billion medium-term capital expenditure range, and have capacity for an annual increase in the dividend per ordinary share of around 4%.

第五，我們仍然致力於將 2023 年盈餘現金流的 60% 用於回購，前提是要保持強大的投資級信用評級。以每桶 60 美元左右的價格，並由董事會每季度酌情決定，我們繼續預計每年能夠進行約 40 億美元的股票回購，處於 140 億美元至 180 億美元的中期資本支出範圍的下限，並有能力每年增加約 4% 的每股普通股股息。

Looking ahead, we remain focused on delivery with strong momentum across our business. First, today's results show that we are performing operationally. We expect around 200 mboe/d of high-margin production from 9 major projects by 2025. Mad Dog Phase 2 and KGD6-MJ are expected to underpin over 1/3 of this volume as they ramp up during 2023 with further start-ups expected this year.

展望未來，我們將繼續專注於交付，並在我們的業務中保持強勁勢頭。首先，今天的結果表明我們在運營方面表現出色。我們預計到 2025 年 9 個主要項目的高利潤產量約為 200 mboe/d。Mad Dog Phase 2 和 KGD6-MJ 預計將支撐這一產量的 1/3 以上，因為它們將在 2023 年增加，預計還會有更多的啟動今年。

BPX is on track to start up Bingo, its second major Permian processing facility, in 3Q '23. This will double BP's operated Permian oil and gas processing capacity, derisking future volume growth. And we expect to grow our equity LNG liquefaction capacity in 2023, supported by major project start-up with further increases in supply, driven by third-party offtakes from Coral, Venture Global and the restart of Freeport.

BPX 有望在 23 年第三季度啟動其第二個主要的二疊紀加工廠 Bingo。這將使 BP 運營的二疊紀石油和天然氣加工能力翻倍，從而降低未來產量增長的風險。我們預計將在 2023 年增加我們的股權 LNG 液化能力，這將得到主要項目啟動的支持，供應進一步增加，受到 Coral、Venture Global 的第三方承購和自由港重啟的推動。

Second, we are transforming, executing our strategy with discipline. We expect the acquisition of TravelCenters of America to close in the second quarter and target around $800 million of EBITDA in 2025.

其次，我們正在轉型，有紀律地執行我們的戰略。我們預計對美國 TravelCenters 的收購將在第二季度完成，目標是 2025 年的 EBITDA 約為 8 億美元。

In EV charging, we expect around a twofold increase in energy sold in 2023 compared to 2022, supported by EV charging infrastructure rollout, increasing utilization of our charge points and strategic partnerships.

在 EV 充電方面，我們預計 2023 年的能源銷量將比 2022 年增加兩倍左右，這得益於 EV 充電基礎設施的推出、充電點利用率的提高和戰略合作夥伴關係。

In bioenergy, during 2023, we expect to advance 1 of our 5 biofuels projects to final investment decision with a further 3 moving into front-end engineering and design. And in biogas, we are proceeding with the integration of Archaea Energy and executing our project pipeline.

在生物能源方面，我們預計在 2023 年將 5 個生物燃料項目中的 1 個推進到最終投資決策，另外 3 個進入前端工程和設計。在沼氣方面，我們正在著手整合 Archaea Energy 並執行我們的項目管道。

Finally, in hydrogen and renewables and power, we are progressing our global portfolio of projects. We are on track to nearly double our hydrogen pipeline by year-end from 1.8 mtpa at the end of 2022 to around 3.5 mtpa. And we continue to grow our renewables pipeline. Third, we continue to apply our financial frame with discipline and predictability, remaining focused on delivering long-term value for you, our shareholders.

最後，在氫能、可再生能源和電力方面，我們正在推進我們的全球項目組合。我們有望在年底前將我們的氫氣管道增加近一倍，從 2022 年底的 1.8 mtpa 增加到 3.5 mtpa 左右。我們繼續發展我們的可再生能源管道。第三，我們繼續以紀律和可預測的方式應用我們的財務框架，繼續專注於為您，我們的股東創造長期價值。

Thank you for your time. Now let's turn to your questions.

感謝您的時間。現在讓我們轉向你的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Okay. Thanks again, everybody, for listening. We'll turn to questions and answers now. (Operator Instructions)

好的。再次感謝大家的聆聽。我們現在將轉向問題和答案。 （操作員說明）

On that note, let's take our first question from Biraj Borkhataria, RBC.

關於這一點，讓我們來看看來自 RBC 的 Biraj Borkhataria 的第一個問題。

First one is on the financial frame. When you're deciding the buyback run rate, in the past, you talked about -- you look at the quarter, but you also do a forward look at the future. If I'm thinking about 2023, first half, you've obviously got the working capital builds, you've got Macondo, you're guiding to higher maintenance and so on. And -- but then in the second half of the year, you've got the working capital releases that you talked about.

第一個是關於財務框架。當你決定回購運行率時，過去，你談到了——你看這個季度，但你也對未來進行前瞻性展望。如果我在考慮 2023 年，上半年，你顯然已經建立了營運資金，你有 Macondo，你正在指導更高的維護等等。而且 - 但在今年下半年，你已經獲得了你談到的營運資金釋放。

So from a surplus free cash flow perspective, it's kind of a year of 2 halves. If I look at the full year in totality, at least on my numbers, there was no need to step down the run rate. But obviously, if you look at H1, then there was. So just 2 questions as it relates to that. How -- what time period are you looking at when you're deciding the buyback run rate? And secondly, how much of this ties into your comments on the credit rating upgrade? Because my sense is that this is one way to signal that you're willing to put a bit more cash to the balance sheet in the near term. So that's -- kind of overall comments on that would be helpful.

所以從盈餘自由現金流的角度來看，這是一年的兩個半年。如果我從整體上看全年，至少從我的數字來看，沒有必要降低運行率。但很明顯，如果你看一下 H1，就會發現。因此，只有 2 個問題與此相關。如何——當你決定回購運行率時，你在看什麼時間段？其次，這與您對信用評級升級的評論有多大關係？因為我的感覺是，這是表明你願意在短期內向資產負債表投入更多現金的一種方式。這就是 - 對此的總體評論會有所幫助。

And the second question is on Egypt. This is a material position for BP, and we've seen the currency devalue quite significantly in the last few months. So can you just help me broadly understand the implications and how much exposure do you have to local currency versus dollars? And any issues in terms of getting paid there and so on?

第二個問題是關於埃及的。這對 BP 來說是一個重要的頭寸，我們已經看到貨幣在過去幾個月中大幅貶值。那麼，您能幫我大致了解其中的含義以及您對當地貨幣與美元的敞口有多大嗎？在那裡獲得報酬等方面有什麼問題嗎？

Great. Thanks, Biraj. Thank you for your questions. First, on Egypt, our contracts are dollar-based. So there's not very much exposure in that space. Overdues come and go over time. There's a bit of an overdue right now, but nothing of any concern for us. I think that's the answer on Egypt.

偉大的。謝謝，比拉吉。謝謝你的問題。首先，在埃及，我們的合同是以美元為基礎的。所以在那個空間裡沒有太多的曝光。逾期會隨著時間的推移來來去去。現在有點逾期，但對我們來說沒有任何問題。我認為這就是關於埃及的答案。

And then buybacks, maybe just to recite how we think about the financial frame right now. As you all know, we have 5 priorities. The fifth priority with surpluses buybacks, what we've communicated to the market is that we'll do 60% of surplus to buybacks and we guide on an annual basis. So our guidance that we provided on February 7 was that at $60 oil, we can do $4 billion in buybacks through the year and that you could use our rules of thumb. And we gave you CapEx guidance as well of $16 billion to $18 billion in the year.

然後是回購，也許只是為了說明我們現在對財務框架的看法。眾所周知，我們有 5 個優先事項。盈餘回購的第五個優先事項，我們向市場傳達的信息是，我們將把 60% 的盈餘用於回購，我們每年都會進行指導。因此，我們在 2 月 7 日提供的指導意見是，以 60 美元的油價計算，我們全年可以進行 40 億美元的回購，您可以使用我們的經驗法則。我們還為您提供了今年 160 億至 180 億美元的資本支出指導。

As you say, Biraj, we calculated the surplus in the first quarter. We had $2.3 billion of surplus. 60% of $2.3 billion would be $1.5 billion. We lent in a bit given the strong performance that we see moving forward from the upstream project starting up to continued LNG expansion and our offtakes to our good trading performance. And so we leaned in a bit, and that's why you got to the $1.75 billion.

正如你所說，Biraj，我們計算了第一季度的盈餘。我們有 23 億美元的盈餘。 23 億美元的 60% 將是 15 億美元。鑑於我們看到從上游項目啟動到持續的液化天然氣擴張以及我們的良好交易表現的承購，我們看到了強勁的表現。所以我們稍微傾斜了一點，這就是你達到 17.5 億美元的原因。

Of course, actual buybacks will be $2 billion as we do $250 million of employee offsets as well. So that's how we think about it. We look at it through the year, and we account both the surplus that we've accumulated in the past and the outlook for the future. I hope that helps, Biraj.

當然，實際回購將是 20 億美元，因為我們也會進行 2.5 億美元的員工抵消。這就是我們的想法。我們回顧了這一年，我們計算了過去積累的盈餘和未來的展望。我希望這有幫助，Biraj。

Okay. Thanks, Biraj. We'll take the next question from Paul Cheng, bright and early in the U.S., Paul at Scotia.

好的。謝謝，比拉吉。我們將從美國 Scotia 的 Paul Cheng 提出下一個問題，他很聰明，很早就在美國。

Two questions, please. Murray, that you guys just signed the purchase agreement with Shell on the Browse LNG project. Just curious, what's the rationale behind given the difficulty to operate in Australia? And the return, is it really going to be that good in order for you to increase? And what's the hurdle and the step in order for that project to take hold and to move to the FID?

請教兩個問題。 Murray，你們剛剛與殼牌就 Browse LNG 項目簽署了購買協議。只是好奇，考慮到在澳大利亞經營困難，背後的理由是什麼？而回報，真的為了讓你增長那麼好嗎？為了讓該項目站穩腳跟並轉移到 FID，有什麼障礙和步驟？

The second question is on inflation. Can you give us some idea what you see on the inflation side? And also, what's built in into your current CapEx?

第二個問題是關於通貨膨脹。你能告訴我們你對通脹方面的看法嗎？而且，您當前的資本支出中內置了什麼？

Great. Thanks, Paul. Bright and early this morning, so you're one of the first participants in the call in as well. So thanks for joining us. On inflation, we're actually not seeing very much now around the world. There continues to be labor inflation. But as you can imagine, fuel prices are decreasing, raw products are decreasing as well. So we're really not seeing much inflation right now across the sector other than in wages. So I think that's the inflation question.

偉大的。謝謝，保羅。今天一大早，陽光明媚，所以您也是電話會議的第一批參與者之一。感謝您加入我們。關於通貨膨脹，我們現在在世界各地實際上並沒有看到太多。勞動力通脹持續存在。但正如您想像的那樣，燃料價格正在下降，原材料也在下降。因此，除了工資之外，我們現在真的沒有看到整個行業出現太大的通貨膨脹。所以我認為這是通貨膨脹問題。

And then on Browse, look, to step back to February 7, what we talked about is $8 billion more into our transition growth engines and $8 billion more into our oil and gas operations. The first 3 years of that will be focused on infill and tiebacks, and that's why we added 7 rigs. And then as we look to the second half of the decade, we have 15 potential FIDs that we can move forward. Kaskida that you heard me talk about earlier is one of those that we've moved into concept select on.

然後在 Browse 上，回到 2 月 7 日，我們談到的是向我們的轉型增長引擎增加 80 億美元，向我們的石油和天然氣業務增加 80 億美元。前 3 年將專注於填充和回接，這就是我們增加 7 個鑽機的原因。然後，當我們展望這十年的下半年時，我們有 15 個潛在的 FIDs 可以向前推進。你之前聽到我談論的 Kaskida 是我們已經進入概念選擇的其中之一。

And Browse is moving in that direction as well. And we saw the opportunity to deepen in Browse, which we thought would be a great opportunity. It's 13 tcf of gas. It came at an immaterial price that's within our financial framework. And it's gas that's pointed at Asia that needs natural gas moving forward.

Browse 也在朝著這個方向發展。我們看到了深化瀏覽的機會，我們認為這將是一個很好的機會。這是 13 tcf 的汽油。它以我們財務框架內的無形價格出現。它是針對亞洲的天然氣，需要天然氣向前發展。

From a difficulty perspective, as we've talked through it with our project teams in detail, this isn't a normal LNG project like the past ones. It's not onshore. It's not near the shore, which has been so tricky. Instead, you'll see fabrication through the operator, Woodside, done probably offshore in other countries. You've got a pipeline delay, but it's an offshore pipeline that there's good industry experience around this. And of course, it's going into [oilage] that's available in North West Shelf.

從困難的角度來看，我們和項目團隊詳細討論過，這不像過去那樣是一個正常的液化天然氣項目。它不在岸上。它不在岸邊，這已經很棘手了。相反，您會看到通過運營商 Woodside 進行的製造可能在其他國家/地區的近海完成。你有一個管道延遲，但它是一個海上管道，在這方面有很好的行業經驗。當然，它會進入西北大陸架可用的 [oilage]。

So we like the project. We think the returns will be mid-teens that we're happy with. But of course, we need to continue to work with Woodside to optimize that and move it forward. But pleased to be able to do the transaction. I hope that helps, Paul.

所以我們喜歡這個項目。我們認為回報將是我們滿意的十幾歲左右。但當然，我們需要繼續與伍德賽德合作以優化它並推動它向前發展。但很高興能夠進行交易。我希望這有幫助，保羅。

Okay. Thanks, Paul. We'll stay in the U.S. and go to Roger Read at Wells Fargo.

好的。謝謝，保羅。我們將留在美國，然後去富國銀行的 Roger Read。

I'd like to hit you up, Murray, on a couple of things on the demand side, what you're seeing, there's been so much in the macro right now, what you're seeing in terms of, call it, non-U.S. R&M demand, refining and marketing, and then I guess particularly a focus on China.

默里，我想就需求方面的一些事情打你-美國 R&M 需求、精煉和營銷，然後我想特別關注中國。

And then the other thing to ask about, you outperformed a little bit on the production side this quarter. Just maybe what were some of the factors in that, if any, or if it just looked normal to you? And I'm not very good at forecasting.

然後要問的另一件事是，本季度您在生產方面的表現略勝一籌。也許其中的一些因素是什麼，如果有的話，或者它對你來說看起來很正常？而且我不太擅長預測。

Thanks, Roger. Thanks for joining us so early. R&M demand side outside the United States, demand is a little bit soft in Northern Europe. And China really is the main story where post the COVID lockdown, we've seen strong demand on the retail side. That's why you've started to see cash flow starting to pick up a little bit. And we've seen an awful lot of retail demand, both on the fuel side and on the EV charging side, setting records on the EV charging demand.

謝謝，羅傑。感謝您這麼早加入我們。美國以外的 R&M 需求方面，北歐的需求有點疲軟。而中國確實是 COVID 封鎖後的主要故事，我們看到了零售方面的強勁需求。這就是為什麼您開始看到現金流量開始有所回升的原因。我們已經看到大量的零售需求，無論是在燃料方面還是在電動汽車充電方面，都創下了電動汽車充電需求的記錄。

We haven't seen as much industrial demand. We're only starting to see the first few cargoes of LNG flow into China now. So I think from a demand side perspective, the Chinese story, from an industrial capacity perspective, is still to play out throughout the year. It's why we are constructive on oil prices looking out through the rest of the year.

我們還沒有看到那麼多的工業需求。我們現在才剛剛開始看到第一批 LNG 貨物流入中國。所以我認為，從需求端的角度來看，從工業產能的角度來看，中國的故事仍然會在全年上演。這就是為什麼我們對今年餘下時間的油價持樂觀態度。

As far as production, we're up a little bit more than we thought we'd be. I'll always take that as CFO, as you can imagine, Roger. And we've had a really strong performance out of the Gulf of Mexico from base performance. And BPX brought online an awful lot of new wells that are performing better than we hoped. So just good underlying reservoir performance right now is the story, Roger.

就生產而言，我們比我們想像的要多一點。羅傑，正如你想像的那樣，我將永遠把它當作首席財務官。從基礎性能來看，我們在墨西哥灣的表現非常強勁。 BPX 使大量新井上線，這些井的性能比我們希望的要好。羅傑，現在的故事就是良好的基礎油藏性能。

Thanks, Roger. I will take the next question from Irene Himona at Societe Generale.

謝謝，羅傑。我將接受法國興業銀行的 Irene Himona 的下一個問題。

Congratulations on the results. Two questions. Firstly, you refer in your press release to the Shah Deniz Consortium having secured additional pipeline capacity. Can you share with us, please, what the flexibility or the spare capacity is at Shah Deniz? And so how much could you grow exports into Europe?

祝賀結果。兩個問題。首先，您在新聞稿中提到 Shah Deniz 財團已獲得額外的管道容量。您能否與我們分享一下，Shah Deniz 的靈活性或閒置能力如何？那麼，您可以將對歐洲的出口增加多少？

And then you referred to stronger biofuels performance in the quarter. Can you please remind us of your biofuels capacity and then give us a sense of how material that contribution is to EBIT, please?

然後你提到了本季度更強勁的生物燃料表現。您能否提醒我們您的生物燃料產能，然後讓我們了解這種貢獻對息稅前收益的重要性？

Yes. Great. Thanks very much for the questions. Shah Deniz excess capacity, without pipeline expansion, there's probably excess capacity. I'm going from memory here, so this may not be an exact answer, and Craig will follow up if I get it wrong. But I think we had about 5% capacity inside the existing pipes to expand if we could. But anything beyond that would take line looping, et cetera, that I know the consortium is working on as well. But Craig will clean that answer up if I got it wrong.

是的。偉大的。非常感謝您的提問。 Shah Deniz 產能過剩，如果不擴建管道，很可能會出現產能過剩。我是憑記憶來的，所以這可能不是一個準確的答案，如果我弄錯了，Craig 會跟進。但我認為，如果可以的話，我們在現有管道內有大約 5% 的容量可以擴展。但除此之外的任何事情都需要線路循環，等等，我知道該聯盟也在努力。但如果我錯了，克雷格會清理那個答案。

Our bio-production capacity across the business is about 27 Kb/d at the end of 2022. And we continue to grow that through the decade as we bring online biofuels plants and expand the efficiency of the existing ones. Of course, an awful lot of the profit we make inside bios, inside trading as well. And we'll start to bring disclosures on the bio side at 2Q results. We'll show you where we're getting to on EBITDA from our transition growth engines. So there'll be more to provide you with there, Irene, as opposed to today. I hope that's okay.

到 2022 年底，我們整個業務的生物生產能力約為 27 Kb/d。隨著我們引入在線生物燃料工廠並提高現有生物燃料工廠的效率，我們在過去十年中繼續增長。當然，我們在 bios 和內部交易中賺取的利潤很大一部分。我們將在第二季度的結果中開始披露生物方面的信息。我們將向您展示我們從轉型增長引擎中獲得的 EBITDA。因此，與今天相比，Irene 會為您提供更多內容。我希望沒關係。

Thanks, Irene. And we'll move now to Christyan Malek of JPMorgan.

謝謝，艾琳。我們現在將轉到摩根大通的 Christyan Malek。

My -- yes, 2 questions from me. First of all, on the buyback quantum, I must admit, it was a bit of a surprise that you [love this]. And I just want to understand the relationship between that -- outside of your capital frame formula, which I totally understand, but just in the context of the macro environment, would it be fair to say that as the macro got weaker, which just seems to be given demand weakness and [base relentless cards], would that be a new norm in terms of your buyback range from a quantum perspective and as far as taking a more cautionary tone in terms of your approach to balance sheet? So I was just trying to link the macro as opposed to the sort of the formula, if that's okay, in isolation.

我的——是的，我有 2 個問題。首先，關於回購量，我必須承認，你[喜歡這個]有點意外。我只是想了解這之間的關係——在你的資本框架公式之外，我完全理解，但只是在宏觀環境的背景下，可以公平地說，隨著宏觀經濟變弱，這似乎考慮到需求疲軟和 [base relentless cards]，從量子的角度來看，這是否會成為您的回購範圍的新規範，並且就您的資產負債表方法而言採取更謹慎的態度？所以我只是想單獨鏈接宏而不是那種公式，如果可以的話。

And the second question is regarding NewMed Energy and so the acquisition, I'm trying to understand the industrial logic, and maybe that extends to other acquisitions that you've made recently in terms of buying into equity as opposed to building through your own portfolio organically given your optionality. So how should we think about the balance between accessing reserves through an acquisition versus proving our progress in terms of your online portfolio?

第二個問題是關於 NewMed Energy 和收購，我試圖了解工業邏輯，也許這會延伸到你最近在購買股權方面進行的其他收購，而不是通過你自己的投資組合進行建設有機地考慮到您的選擇。那麼，我們應該如何考慮通過收購獲取儲備與證明我們在您的在線投資組合方面取得的進展之間的平衡呢？

And should we read into this that perhaps the portfolio over the medium term needs to be beefed up, if you will, through acquisition because of the lack of optionality? So I'm sort of challenging you on that point, but I just want to understand the industry logical of buy versus build.

我們是否應該讀到這一點，也許中期的投資組合需要加強，如果你願意的話，由於缺乏可選性，可以通過收購來加強？所以我在這一點上有點挑戰你，但我只是想了解購買與構建的行業邏輯。

Yes, great. Why don't I start on the gas side of the portfolio. Very, very pleased to be progressing the NewMed transaction, and the offer is made, gives us access into Aphrodite and Leviathan, 2 great fields that can be developed for the future for Europe. And as I mentioned in my script, that will be contributing assets to that venture. So you should think of that as an efficiency swap. And as time unfolds, we'll give you more details on what that looks like.

對，很好。為什麼我不從投資組合的天然氣方面開始。非常、非常高興能夠推進 NewMed 交易，並提出要約，讓我們能夠進入 Aphrodite 和 Leviathan，這兩個可以為歐洲未來開發的偉大油田。正如我在腳本中提到的那樣，這將為該企業貢獻資產。因此，您應該將其視為效率交換。隨著時間的推移，我們會為您提供更多細節。

On the broader point, we have a lot of optionality inside natural gas, but it never hurts to get more is our viewpoint to drive towards the highest quality. We obviously have discoveries in Trinidad that allow Trinidad to continue. We have discoveries in Mauritania and Senegal that allow to continue. We've now got an interesting anchor point in the Middle East for export. And of course, we've deepened our Asian access on the equity side.

從更廣泛的角度來看，我們在天然氣方面有很多選擇，但獲得更多永遠不會有壞處是我們追求最高質量的觀點。我們顯然在特立尼達有發現，可以讓特立尼達繼續存在。我們在毛里塔尼亞和塞內加爾的發現可以繼續下去。我們現在在中東有一個有趣的出口錨點。當然，我們已經深化了在股票方面的亞洲業務。

So we have lots of options. It's really about creating as many options as you can and then deciding which ones you do. Quality through choice, I think, is the mantra that we all learned growing up under John Browne. So I hope that helps understand that.

所以我們有很多選擇。這實際上是關於盡可能多地創建選項，然後決定執行哪些選項。我認為，通過選擇獲得質量是我們在約翰·布朗 (John Browne) 的帶領下成長的座右銘。所以我希望這有助於理解這一點。

As far as the buybacks, just to reiterate guidance yet again, Christyan, 60% of surplus, $4 billion of buybacks at $60, use the rule of thumb and the price is around $80. I think at strip right now, give or take, and you'll have the Henry Hub and RMM and use our rules of thumb to calculate it with our $16 billion to $18 billion capital range. And I think you'll find the number is spot on, absolutely spot on what we guided.

至於回購，再次重申指導意見，Christyan，60% 的盈餘，40 億美元的回購，價格為 60 美元，使用經驗法則，價格在 80 美元左右。我認為現在脫衣舞，給予或接受，你將擁有 Henry Hub 和 RMM，並使用我們的經驗法則來計算我們 160 億美元至 180 億美元的資本範圍。我想你會發現這個數字是正確的，絕對是我們指導的。

So as far as I'm concerned, we've hit just about that on guidance. And as we look forward, we leaned in a bit above the $1.5 billion to the $1.75 billion, as I talked about, on the strength of performance. And of course, if the oil environment improves, let's see what happens.

因此，就我而言，我們已經在指導上達到了這一點。當我們展望未來時，正如我所說的那樣，我們的業績略高於 15 億美元至 17.5 億美元。當然，如果石油環境有所改善，讓我們看看會發生什麼。

Remember, last quarter, we did $2.75 billion of buybacks, and that was -- that happened because we had a working capital release. This time, we've got $1.75 billion with a $1.4 billion build. And what you should focus on is we are honoring our commitment to a 60% surplus. We are not -- we have not created a run rate framework. We have created a percentage of surplus. And as far as I can tell, the math works. So thanks, Christyan. I appreciate your question.

請記住，上個季度，我們進行了 27.5 億美元的回購，那是因為我們釋放了營運資金。這一次，我們獲得了 17.5 億美元，建造成本為 14 億美元。你應該關注的是我們正在履行我們對 60% 盈餘的承諾。我們不是——我們還沒有創建運行率框架。我們創造了一定比例的盈餘。據我所知，數學是可行的。所以謝謝，克里斯蒂安。我很感激你的問題。

Thanks, Christyan. We'll take the next question from Os Clint at Bernstein.

謝謝，克里斯蒂安。我們將接受 Bernstein 的 Os Clint 的下一個問題。

Maybe just talking about the LNG book and a little bit of an update on the derivative unwind that we spoke about last quarter, the quarter before, the $5 billion potentially second half this year into early 2024, if we could just get an update on that particular number. And also, if -- is there any -- I mean I know, Murray, you said immaterial monetary value for Browse. But is that -- I mean, is that should be perhaps more than immaterial? Is it a couple of hundred million up towards 0.5 billion for that payment? I wonder if you could just put something around it.

也許只是談論液化天然氣書籍和我們上個季度，前一個季度談到的衍生品平倉的一些更新，今年下半年到 2024 年初可能有 50 億美元，如果我們能得到更新的話特定號碼。而且，如果 - 有沒有 - 我的意思是我知道，默里，你說過 Browse 的貨幣價值不重要。但那是——我的意思是，這是否應該不僅僅是無關緊要的？這筆付款是幾億到五億嗎？我想知道你是否可以在它周圍放置一些東西。

Secondly, yes, Murray, you talked Castrol is picking up. Is that simply China? Or are we still seeing those base oil effects coming through the Castrol business? Would be the second one, please.

其次，是的，穆雷，你說過嘉實多正在崛起。那隻是中國嗎？還是我們仍然看到嘉實多業務對基礎油的影響？請是第二個。

Super. Thanks, Os. I appreciate the questions. Browse, we're under a confidentiality agreement. So I really can't comment.

極好的。謝謝，奧斯。我很欣賞這些問題。瀏覽，我們有保密協議。所以我真的不能評論。

I don't think we want the CFO of BP getting in trouble for commenting against a confidentiality agreement. So I can -- all I can say is it's an immaterial amount and within our capital frame.

我認為我們不希望 BP 的首席財務官因為對保密協議發表評論而惹上麻煩。所以我可以——我只能說這是一個無關緊要的數額，而且在我們的資本框架內。

As far as the LNG unwind, I think what you're asking is, is there any change to the cash flow guidance on the release on working capital? And the answer is no. Our guidance remains as described last quarter, which is last year, we locked in a bunch of high-quality priced LNG with the cargoes to come starting in 3Q this year. And we see $5 billion releasing from 3Q 2023 through about 2Q 2024 weighted towards 2024. So no change to that guidance. I thought I'd just repeat it. And just interestingly, nobody has asked me, but we are starting to see Freeport come back, and Coral is lifting well as well. So that's good news.

至於液化天然氣的解除，我想你問的是，營運資金釋放的現金流量指導是否有任何變化？答案是否定的。我們的指引與上一季度所述相同，也就是去年，我們鎖定了一批高質量的液化天然氣，貨物將於今年第三季度開始運抵。我們看到從 2023 年第三季度到 2024 年第二季度左右釋放了 50 億美元，加權到 2024 年。因此該指導沒有變化。我想我只是重複一遍。有趣的是，沒有人問過我，但我們開始看到自由港回歸，Coral 的增長也很好。所以這是個好消息。

Craig, remind me of the third question.

克雷格，提醒我第三個問題。

Castrol.

嘉實多。

Castrol. Yes, Castrol. Sorry, Os, I forgot the third question. I can't read my own writing. On Castrol, we have started to see additive prices and base oil prices relaxing. So that's good news. There's a little bit of performance there, more to come. And then we had the 1 month of unlock inside China, which obviously China is our largest market for Castrol. So that started to move forward as well.

嘉實多。是的，嘉實多。抱歉，Os，我忘記了第三個問題。我看不懂自己寫的。在嘉實多，我們已經開始看到添加劑價格和基礎油價格放鬆。所以這是個好消息。那裡有一些表演，還有更多。然後我們在中國進行了 1 個月的解鎖，顯然中國是嘉實多最大的市場。所以這也開始向前發展。

As well, we have a new leader in place now, Michelle Jou.

此外，我們現在有了新的領導者，Michelle Jou。

She's doing a fantastic job. She's got a new leadership team. They're fired up, and they're getting ready to go get market share and move forward on Castrol. So I'm looking forward to a continuing trend in Castrol in the quarters ahead. Thanks, Os.

她做得很好。她有一個新的領導團隊。他們被激怒了，他們正準備去獲得市場份額並在 Castrol 上向前邁進。所以我期待嘉實多在未來幾個季度的持續發展。謝謝，奧斯。

Thanks, Os. We'll take the next question from Peter Low at Redburn.

謝謝，奧斯。我們將從 Redburn 的 Peter Low 那裡回答下一個問題。

It's actually just another question on the customers & products result more generally. It looks like it was actually the weakest quarterly result for some time. Can you give a little bit more color on what's causing that? And then perhaps how you're tracking against 2025 target for $7 billion of EBITDA from that area? So that was it.

這實際上只是關於客戶和產品結果的另一個問題。看起來這實際上是一段時間以來最疲軟的季度業績。你能詳細說明是什麼原因造成的嗎？然後，也許您如何跟踪該領域 70 億美元 EBITDA 的 2025 年目標？就是這樣。

Yes, Peter, we remain still on track in 2025. Remember, a key milestone will be the completion of TravelCenters of America. We're looking forward to the shareholder vote next week. And then obviously, it has a strong contribution into EBITDA in 2025.

是的，彼得，我們在 2025 年仍保持在正軌上。請記住，一個關鍵的里程碑將是美國 TravelCenters 的完成。我們期待下週的股東投票。然後很明顯，它對 2025 年的 EBITDA 有很大貢獻。

On current performance, it's a bit of an anomaly in the quarter where the fuel margins were in refining as opposed to in the -- inside mobility, a fairly sizable number. So that's what makes it look a little bit suppressed. Additionally, we're really pushing hard on the bio space, and we're really pushing hard on the electrification space. So those create losses. Again, we'll come show you a bit more granularity on that at the second quarter results. So because you've got growth engines inside that, it creates a little bit of a suppressed number along with the fuel margin that we saw.

就目前的表現而言，本季度燃料利潤率在煉油方面有點反常，而不是在 - 內部機動性方面，這是一個相當大的數字。所以這就是讓它看起來有點壓抑的原因。此外，我們真的在努力推動生物領域，我們真的在努力推動電氣化領域。所以那些造成了損失。同樣，我們將在第二季度的結果中向您展示更多細節。因此，因為您在其中擁有增長引擎，所以它會產生一些被抑制的數字以及我們看到的燃料利潤率。

From a headline basis, though, really pleased with the transition growth engines. Convenience year-on-year, 9% up. That's against a market average of 6%. EV charging is storming ahead with continued deployment of fast charging. We hit 8.8% utilization in the U.K. in the quarter, way ahead of what we would have expected as consumers adopt more electric vehicles and use our services. So the underlying drivers of growth are looking fantastic, and it's a bit of an anomaly in the first quarter. I hope that helps.

不過，從頭條新聞來看，我們對轉型增長引擎非常滿意。便利性同比增長9%。這與市場平均水平 6% 相去甚遠。隨著快速充電的持續部署，電動汽車充電正在蓬勃發展。本季度我們在英國的利用率達到了 8.8%，遠遠超過了我們隨著消費者採用更多電動汽車和使用我們的服務而預期的水平。因此，增長的潛在驅動力看起來很棒，而且第一季度有點反常。我希望這有幫助。

Thanks, Peter. We'll take the next question from Lydia Rainforth at Barclays.

謝謝，彼得。我們將接受來自巴克萊銀行的 Lydia Rainforth 的下一個問題。

Two questions, if I could. One, if I kind of come back to the buyback and, Murray, you referenced the kind of the working cap impact on last quarter, this quarter. But there is a lot of volatility, it seems like, in those numbers. So do you ever think about moving to something that's slightly more stable in terms of that framework? And I am particularly thinking about 2Q when you do have Gulf of Mexico payments going out, you do have TravelCenters closing. So just sort of the idea that the volatility sometimes isn't necessarily helpful from that side.

兩個問題，如果可以的話。第一，如果我回到回購問題上，穆雷，你提到了工作上限對本季度上一季度的影響。但這些數字似乎存在很大的波動性。那麼，您是否考慮過轉向在該框架方面稍微穩定一些的東西？我特別考慮第二季度，當你確實有墨西哥灣付款時，你確實有 TravelCenters 關閉。所以只是有點想法，即波動有時不一定從那方面有幫助。

And then the second one was actually just on the OpEx side. In the upstream, clearly that number was down 12% on last year in what has been an inflationary environment. I was wondering if you can comment a little bit more about what's driving that.

然後第二個實際上只是在 OpEx 方面。在上游，在通貨膨脹的環境下，這個數字顯然比去年下降了 12%。我想知道你是否可以就驅動它的原因發表更多評論。

Yes, great. Lydia, financial frameworks, crystal clear from our perspective, the 5 priorities, we've been doing it for the past 3 years, no intent of change. And I don't imagine you want me to repeat the guidance I just gave the guys on the previous 2 questions, but no intent to change, which I think was what you might have been asking.

對，很好。莉迪亞，財務框架，從我們的角度來看非常清楚，5 個優先事項，我們在過去 3 年裡一直在做，沒有改變的意圖。而且我不認為你想讓我重複我剛剛就前兩個問題給大家的指導，但無意改變，我認為這就是你可能一直在問的問題。

And just as a reminder, the Board looks through the year as we think about surplus, and we're committed to 60% to surplus. And yes, working capital does swing amazingly across the quarters and has many, many moving parts. And as you can see, we leaned in a bit this quarter given what happened on working capital.

提醒一下，董事會在考慮盈餘時回顧了這一年，我們承諾實現 60% 的盈餘。是的，營運資金確實在各個季度之間出現了驚人的波動，並且有很多很多的活動部分。正如您所看到的，考慮到營運資金發生的情況，我們本季度有所傾斜。

As far as your second question, OpEx in the upstream, you have to think about this really as a 10-year journey that the upstream has been on. You'll remember that we heavily, heavily started to digitize years ago. And the work of all of that, along with reorganization that occurred to move to a much more central model with agile squads, is really starting to pay off. I think the number was $14 a barrel lifting cost back in 2012 or 2013, and we're all the way to sub-6 now and aspiring to hold that moving forward.

至於你的第二個問題，上游的 OpEx，你必須真正將其視為上游已經進行的 10 年旅程。你會記得我們幾年前就開始大力數字化。所有這一切的工作，以及為轉移到更加集中的敏捷團隊模式而進行的重組，真正開始得到回報。我認為這個數字在 2012 年或 2013 年是每桶 14 美元的提升成本，而我們現在一直在低於 6 美元，並渴望保持這一趨勢。

That's really about the fact that we spent years and years and years streamlining all our data, thanks to help from Palantir, a great partner we have. They really helped us clean up our data so that everybody would have it at their fingertips. That enabled us to centralize many of the teams around the globe from the drillers to the reservoir engineers to the explorers.

這真的是關於我們花了很多年、很多年和很多年來簡化我們所有數據的事實，這要感謝我們擁有的一個偉大合作夥伴 Palantir 的幫助。他們確實幫助我們清理了數據，以便每個人都可以輕鬆獲得。這使我們能夠集中全球的許多團隊，從鑽探人員到油藏工程師再到勘探人員。

And another big thing we did in the background is we put in place a single SAP system across the upstream, including a purchasing package. And that purchasing package now really coming to bear where we're able to do offshore work remotely.

我們在後台做的另一件大事是我們在上游部署了一個單一的 SAP 系統，包括一個採購包。那個採購包現在真正開始承擔我們能夠遠程進行離岸工作的地方。

So in October, we're going to host an away day for the upstream and Archaea. And at that, we'll do a few showcases on the brilliant stories that we're seeing out of this.

因此，在 10 月，我們將為上游和 Archaea 舉辦一天的活動。屆時，我們將展示一些我們從中看到的精彩故事。

The one that captured my imagination last quarter was that the operators on Schiehallion can actually plan and do the entire work onshore. So they don't have to travel back and forth on helicopters offshore to plan a trip. They have the laser siding that can put up all the architecture of scaffolding, et cetera, onshore in a virtual model. They bring the contractors in to work through the work packs. And all of a sudden, you eliminate all the labor going back and forth between our planners, the contractors, et cetera, and you arrive with a package that works the first time. That's just a step change and nothing I've ever seen in my career, especially in difficult places like the North Sea.

上個季度讓我大吃一驚的是，Schiehallion 上的操作員實際上可以在岸上計劃和完成整個工作。因此，他們不必乘坐直升機在海上來回旅行來計劃旅行。他們擁有激光壁板，可以在虛擬模型中將所有腳手架等建築搭建在岸上。他們讓承包商參與工作包。突然之間，您消除了在我們的計劃人員、承包商等之間來回奔波的所有勞動力，並且您帶著一個第一次就可以工作的包裹到達。這只是一步改變，在我的職業生涯中從未見過，尤其是在像北海這樣困難的地方。

So it's a long -- very long-winded answer. Sorry for that, Lydia. You can tell I have a huge amount of passion in this, but digitization, agile and the structure that Gordon put in place have really, really brought technology to bear inside the upstream. And the great thing is that we can start on the downstream now, so we can really start on the refineries and the customer's business, which we haven't done yet. So it will be fantastic for the future in those businesses. I hope that helps, Lydia.

所以這是一個很長的答案。對不起，莉迪亞。你可以說我對此充滿熱情，但數字化、敏捷和 Gordon 建立的結構確實非常非常地將技術帶入了上游。最棒的是我們現在可以從下游開始，這樣我們就可以真正開始煉油廠和客戶的業務，我們還沒有這樣做。因此，對於這些企業的未來來說，這將是非常棒的。我希望這有幫助，莉迪亞。

Thanks, Lydia. And we'll turn now to Martijn Rats at Morgan Stanley.

謝謝，莉迪亞。我們現在將轉向摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats。

Two questions from me as well, if I may. First of all, I wanted to ask you about Kaskida. I find it quite noteworthy that Wood Mack is still showing this as not viable. Whilst clearly, I guess, from the comments you made, this is moving to the sort of viable sort of category. So good to see that there is oil that was previously not viable becoming viable.

如果可以的話，我也有兩個問題。首先，我想問你關於卡斯基達的事。我發現非常值得注意的是，Wood Mack 仍然表明這是不可行的。雖然很明顯，我想，從您的評論來看，這正在轉向可行的類別。很高興看到以前不可行的石油變得可行。

But I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the things that have happened in the background on sort of technology or seismic or other things that allowed you to now progress this to the next stage. And the project is a bit of a blast from the past, so clearly, something must have happened in the meantime.

但我想知道你是否可以談談背景中發生的關於技術或地震或其他事情的事情，這些事情讓你現在可以將其推進到下一階段。而且這個項目有點像過去的爆炸，很明顯，在此期間一定發生了一些事情。

And then secondly, maybe ask sort of nitty-gritty detail, but it feels like quite an obvious one. The $1.4 billion working capital build in this quarter, would you also consider that to be reversible in quarters ahead? Or is that not something we should expect?

其次，也許會問一些具體細節，但感覺很明顯。本季度 14 億美元的營運資金增加，您是否也認為這在未來幾個季度是可逆的？還是這不是我們應該期待的？

On the second one, Martijn, you should not expect it to be reversible. It principally had to do with bonus payments where you accrue for them last year and you pay them out in the first quarter. So that's the majority of that build. And the only thing you should think about for release right now is the $5 billion that we talked about on the earlier questions.

關於第二個，Martijn，你不應該期望它是可逆的。它主要與你去年累積的獎金支付有關，並在第一季度支付。這就是該構建的大部分內容。你現在唯一應該考慮釋放的是我們在之前的問題中談到的 50 億美元。

On your first question, blast from the past, I can feel the title to your research note this quarter, Martjin. Yes, for those who haven't been around as long as I have or Martjin has, we discovered Kaskida back in 2006, I think, something like 4 billion barrels of oil in place. And really, what's happened is technology has transformed around us, Martijn. We now have 2 20K rigs that are operating in the Gulf of Mexico. We have frac technology that works inside the Paleogene at the high temperature, high pressure. We have production for 500,000 a day of Paleogene analog reservoirs that we didn't have last decade.

關於你的第一個問題，從過去開始，我能感覺到你本季度研究報告的標題，Martjin。是的，對於那些沒有像我或 Martjin 那樣存在時間長的人來說，我們早在 2006 年就發現了 Kaskida，我認為大約有 40 億桶石油。真的，發生的事情是我們周圍的技術發生了變化，Martijn。我們現在有 2 個 20K 鑽井平台在墨西哥灣作業。我們擁有在古近紀高溫、高壓下工作的壓裂技術。我們每天生產 500,000 個古近紀模擬油藏，這是我們過去十年所沒有的。

And so that, along with streamlined concepts on development, leads you down a path where you get much, much more comfortable with Kaskida. I wouldn't pay much attention to Wood Mack for now. That's a good reminder, Craig, that we should go introduce what we can to Kaskida to Wood Mack at the right time. But we feel pretty good about this, Martijn. It's probably going to have a decost to somewhere between 15 and 20. It's an enormous resource base, and we're just moving through concept select. And hopefully, we'll move to FID next year.

因此，連同簡化的開發概念，將引導您走上一條讓您對 Kaskida 感到更加舒適的道路。我現在不會太注意伍德麥克。這是一個很好的提醒，克雷格，我們應該在適當的時候把我們能做的介紹給卡斯基達給伍德麥克。但我們對此感覺很好，Martijn。它可能會減少到 15 到 20 之間的某個地方。這是一個巨大的資源基礎，我們只是在進行概念選擇。希望明年我們會轉向 FID。

It's 100% BP-owned, and we're thrilled. It definitely gives us the capacity to hold the Gulf of Mexico up around that 350 to 400 level through the end of the decade, which I think is exceptional value for the company. I hope that helps, Martjin.

它 100% 由 BP 所有，我們很高興。它無疑使我們有能力在本十年末將墨西哥灣保持在 350 至 400 左右的水平，我認為這對公司來說具有非凡的價值。我希望這對您有所幫助，馬丁。

Thanks, Martjin. And we'll take the next question from Chris Kuplent at Bank of America.

謝謝，馬丁。我們將從美國銀行的 Chris Kuplent 那裡回答下一個問題。

Murray, I just wanted to follow up on the question that Martjin just asked. It's not $1.4 billion of outflows, right? It's more than $4 billion of what I would consider classic working capital outflows in the quarter. Is that all due to those bonus payments you referred to? I just struggle to see the relationship between quarter-on-quarter price movements which, in particular, gas, I would have expected to lead to working capital inflow. So I appreciate -- I'm probably asking the same question again, but yes, if you could just confirm, where you can, the quantum of those bonus payments that you referred to just now and any other color you can add to that would be great.

Murray，我只是想跟進一下 Martjin 剛才提出的問題。這不是 14 億美元的資金流出，對吧？在我認為本季度的經典營運資本流出中，這超過了 40 億美元。這都是因為你提到的那些獎金支付嗎？我只是很難看到季度價格變動之間的關係，特別是天然氣，我預計會導致營運資金流入。所以我很感激——我可能會再次問同樣的問題，但是是的，如果你能在可能的地方確認你剛才提到的那些獎金支付的數量以及你可以添加的任何其他顏色會很棒。

Secondly, a question on your $16 billion to $18 billion frame. Now that you've announced a few acquisitions that will, I guess, be part of that frame, it'd be good to know what you can see today from Browse, TA, NewMed. I appreciate you probably have confidentiality agreements around a few of them on a single basis, but maybe you can, from where you sit today, give us a number for all of those combined, how much they will make up of the $16 billion to $18 billion for the full year?

其次，關於您的 160 億美元至 180 億美元框架的問題。既然你已經宣布了一些收購，我想，這些收購將成為該框架的一部分，很高興知道你今天能從 Browse、TA 和 NewMed 看到什麼。我很感激你可能就其中的一些達成了保密協議，但也許你可以，從你今天坐的地方，給我們一個數字，說明所有這些加起來，它們將佔 160 億美元到 18 美元的多少全年十億？

Thanks, Chris. I'm not really sure where the $4 billion comes from. So I'll ask Craig to follow up with you off-line or we can cover it this afternoon. The build was $1.4 billion. Last quarter, we had a release of $4 billion. You can't really compare quarter-to-quarter working capital build. So that's not math that makes sense. But the $1.4 billion is what the build was in the quarter, and the majority was bonus payment. So that's all I can say on that one. And we'll have Craig follow up with you afterwards to try to understand the math that you're looking at.

謝謝，克里斯。我不太確定這 40 億美元是從哪裡來的。所以我會請 Craig 與您進行離線跟進，或者我們可以在今天下午進行討論。該建築耗資 14 億美元。上個季度，我們釋放了 40 億美元。您無法真正比較季度與季度的營運資本建設。所以這不是有意義的數學。但 14 億美元是本季度的建設金額，其中大部分是獎金支付。所以這就是我能說的。之後我們將讓 Craig 跟進您，以嘗試理解您正在查看的數學。

As far as capital frame for 2023, a few things to say, $16 billion to $18 billion obviously remains our guidance. You saw that our run rate in the first quarter was $3.6 billion. That's largely an organic run rate. So you can see where the run rate is moving to right now.

至於 2023 年的資本框架，有幾件事要說，160 億至 180 億美元顯然仍然是我們的指導。你看到我們第一季度的運行率為 36 億美元。這主要是有機運行率。所以你可以看到運行率現在移動到哪裡。

Acquisitions that might fit inside the inorganic side of things, first one, obviously, is TravelCenters of America. And we're waiting for the shareholder vote next week. So we'll see how that goes, and you know what the capital is associated with that. I've talked about Browse already. NewMed is not CapEx since NewMed is a swap. So that doesn't show up as cash CapEx, which is what we measure as cash CapEx.

可能適合事物的無機方面的收購，第一個顯然是美國的 TravelCenters。我們正在等待下週的股東投票。所以我們會看看情況如何，你知道與此相關的資本是什麼。我已經談過瀏覽。 NewMed 不是資本支出，因為 NewMed 是互換。所以這不會顯示為現金資本支出，這是我們衡量的現金資本支出。

So I think $16 billion to $18 billion remains valid. You can see what the organic run rate is right now from 1Q results. And so far, really, the only thing of materiality is TravelCenters of America if the shareholders approve that. I hope that helps, Chris.

所以我認為 160 億到 180 億美元仍然有效。你可以從第一季度的結果中看到現在的有機運行率是多少。到目前為止，如果股東批准的話，真正重要的是美國的 TravelCenters。我希望這有幫助，克里斯。

Okay. Yes, thanks for the color on NewMed. And the TA is $1.3 billion, right, that's the portion that you would account for as CapEx?

好的。是的，感謝 NewMed 上的顏色。 TA 是 13 億美元，對吧，這就是您要計入資本支出的部分？

Yes, that's correct. Yes.

對，那是正確的。是的。

Okay, thanks, Chris. We'll take the next question from Lucas Herrmann at Exane.

好的，謝謝，克里斯。我們將接受 Exane 的 Lucas Herrmann 的下一個問題。

A couple, if I might. Just Murray, U.S. onshore, can you give us any idea as to what would likely impact on production and economics? Is it going to be if Bingo steps up? I ask simply because CapEx, obviously, is rising, as you've indicated, but production costs have always have seen quite some elevation this quarter.

一對，如果可以的話。美國陸上的穆雷，你能告訴我們什麼可能對生產和經濟產生影響嗎？如果 Bingo 站起來，會是這樣嗎？我問的原因很簡單，正如您所指出的那樣，資本支出顯然正在上升，但本季度生產成本一直有相當大的提升。

So just some commentary, if you don't mind, around the U.S. onshore and progression as we go through the year. And otherwise, if I might, just in LNG, how many cargo diversions this quarter? To what extent are you rebuilding the capacity to divert later in the year should conditions be favorable?

因此，如果您不介意的話，只是一些評論，圍繞美國在岸和我們經歷這一年的進展。否則，如果可以的話，僅在液化天然氣方面，本季度有多少貨物轉移？如果條件有利，您將在多大程度上重建今年晚些時候轉移的能力？

Yes. Thanks, Lucas. Nice to hear your voice. I'm not sure if we've guided on the Permian before at flow rates, but I'll do it anyway. The first one, Grand Slam is about 30 Kb/d of black oil. Bingo is about 30 Kb/d of black oil. And we have 3 more of these to come through '24 and '25. So that's building the Permian oil capacity up to 120 mb/d.

是的。謝謝，盧卡斯。很高興聽到你的聲音。我不確定我們之前是否以流速指導過二疊紀，但無論如何我都會這樣做。第一個，Grand Slam 大約是 30 Kb/d 的黑油。 Bingo 是大約 30 Kb/d 的黑油。我們還有 3 個這樣的產品要通過 '24 和 '25。這就是將二疊紀石油產能提高到 120 mb/d。

1Q had some anomalies inside BPX. As you brought a bunch of wells online, we had some well work to stimulate them. So it creates a bit of an artificial bubble in cost. Plus, obviously, they had the bonus payment that we talked about a little bit ago as well. So that's -- hopefully, that helps you on the U.S. onshore.

1Q BPX內部出現了一些異常。當您將一堆油井上線時，我們進行了一些油井增產工作。所以它在成本上製造了一點人為的泡沫。另外，很明顯，他們也有我們剛才談到的獎金支付。因此，希望這對您在美國境內有所幫助。

On LNG, I don't actually have that information at my fingertips, Lucas. What happened that drove an exceptional result in the quarter is we signed up a bunch of new contracts for medium-length delivery at a profit inside the portfolio. So that locks in profitability. And we also made some good price calls on the falling gas price.

關於液化天然氣，盧卡斯，我實際上並沒有觸手可及的信息。導致本季度取得優異成績的原因是，我們簽署了一系列新的中等長度交付合同，並在投資組合中獲利。這樣就鎖定了盈利能力。我們還對天然氣價格下跌做出了一些很好的價格預測。

But as far as cargo diversions, as we've talked about in the past, we have contractual clauses that allow us to redirect an awful lot of our cargoes across the world. And you'll remember the statistic last year that we've made public as we redirected 160 cargoes to Europe when Europe needed gas in 2022. So I hope that helps.

但就貨物改道而言，正如我們過去談到的那樣，我們有合同條款允許我們將大量貨物改道到世界各地。你會記得去年我們公開的統計數據，因為我們在 2022 年歐洲需要天然氣時將 160 批貨物重新定向到歐洲。所以我希望這能有所幫助。

Murray, can I just come back one moment on the U.S. onshore? How much oil is behind pipe, i.e., effectively, as the facility as Bingo comes on stream, we should expect a pretty rapid ramp in production latter stages of the year?

Murray，我可以在美國境內回來片刻嗎？管道後面有多少石油，即，有效地，隨著 Bingo 設施的投產，我們應該預計今年下半年產量會迅速增加？

Yes, you'll -- you should see the 30 Kb/d flow over a 90- to 120-day period. It will just depend on where they are inside the completions versus drilling the next ones out. So it should be a nice rise.

是的，您會——您應該會在 90 到 120 天的時間內看到 30 Kb/d 的流量。這將僅取決於它們在完井內的位置與鑽出下一個完井的位置。所以這應該是一個不錯的上漲。

Thanks, Lucas. We'll take the next question from Michele Della Vigna at Goldman Sachs.

謝謝，盧卡斯。我們將從高盛的 Michele Della Vigna 那裡回答下一個問題。

Congratulations on the strong results. I wanted to ask you 2 questions. On hydrogen, you're clearly building a strong portfolio. You expect to double the pipeline of projects. I was wondering if you could update us on what you expect to be the average profitability of the portfolio. And if you start to see the opportunity of the seaborne market being born or you're mostly focused on local demand, where I find especially the regulatory environment for refining and the substitution of gray hydrogen there remains very attractive.

祝賀你取得了優異的成績。我想問你2個問題。在氫方面，你顯然正在建立一個強大的投資組合。您希望將項目的管道增加一倍。我想知道您是否可以向我們更新您對投資組合平均盈利能力的預期。而且，如果您開始看到海運市場誕生的機會，或者您主要關注本地需求，我發現特別是煉油和灰氫替代的監管環境仍然非常有吸引力。

And secondly, on U.S. gas, you are very well positioned with, I believe, pretty much fully hedged production for this year. But I'm wondering if at $2 per mcf gas, you're actually starting to see the opportunity to perhaps take away some of the rigs and refocus them in the Permian where you keep strongly growing the activity.

其次，在美國天然氣方面，我相信今年的產量幾乎完全對沖。但我想知道，如果以每千立方英尺天然氣 2 美元的價格，你是否真的開始看到機會，或許可以帶走一些鑽井平台，並將它們重新集中在二疊紀，在那裡你的活動將保持強勁增長。

Yes. Thanks, Michele. On the U.S. gas side, we're actually hedged out 2 years right now. So we see pretty strong economics on that, actually stronger than the Permian when we're hedged around 4 -- bid rounds to $4 out through 2024. And we keep that position under review, so no intent to reallocate rigs. As we signed up longer-term rig contracts, I wanted to hedge around that to guarantee the profitability and cash flow that came out of it. So we're happy with where the rigs are directed right now, and we have 3 in the Eagle Ford and 3 in the Haynesville.

是的。謝謝，米歇爾。在美國天然氣方面，我們現在實際上已經對沖了 2 年。因此，我們在這方面看到了相當強勁的經濟效益，當我們在 4 輪左右進行對沖時，實際上比二疊紀要強——到 2024 年，投標輪次達到 4 美元。我們會繼續審查這一立場，因此無意重新分配鑽井平台。當我們簽署長期鑽井平台合同時，我想對其進行對沖，以保證由此產生的盈利能力和現金流。所以我們對鑽井平台現在的方向感到滿意，我們在 Eagle Ford 有 3 個，在 Haynesville 有 3 個。

On hydrogen, yes, progress is happening, and it's quite pleasing. The returns are above the 10% that we're seeing on average across the portfolio. I won't quote any direct numbers at this stage given that we have to get through FID before I get the confidence level, but certainly above the 10% hurdle that we're seeing.

在氫氣方面，是的，進展正在發生，而且非常令人高興。回報率高於我們在整個投資組合中看到的平均 10%。鑑於我們必須在獲得置信水平之前通過 FID，但肯定高於我們所看到的 10% 的障礙，因此我現階段不會引用任何直接數字。

Probably the first projects that are going to happen on the hydrogen side are in the refineries, as you mentioned. Probably green hydrogen out at Cherry Point, probably blue hydrogen at Whiting is our sense, and then green hydrogen across the refineries inside Europe.

正如您提到的，可能第一個在氫方面發生的項目是在煉油廠。可能是 Cherry Point 的綠色氫氣，可能是 Whiting 的藍色氫氣是我們的感覺，然後是歐洲內部煉油廠的綠色氫氣。

Seaborne is something that we're in conversation with many customers, 2 different directions. There's the potential for green methanol to fuel tankers or green ammonia to fuel tankers that are shipping products around the world. So that's a potential that's starting to emerge. We'll see if that works. And then in Asia, we continue conversations with Asian countries on export. I think that will be longer wavelength though. I think that will be more towards the back end of the decade by the time you start to build that business out.

Seaborne 是我們正在與許多客戶從 2 個不同方向進行對話的東西。綠色甲醇有可能為油輪提供燃料，綠色氨有可能為在世界各地運輸產品的油輪提供燃料。所以這是一個開始出現的潛力。我們會看看這是否有效。然後在亞洲，我們繼續與亞洲國家就出口問題進行對話。我認為那將是更長的波長。我認為到本世紀末開始建立該業務時，這將更加接近。

So interestingly, it's refineries and seaboard tanking that may be the things that move first. But ask me that question each quarter, and I'll probably slightly change the emphasis as the model starts to unfold, Michele. Thank you for the question.

有趣的是，煉油廠和沿海油輪可能是最先移動的東西。但是每個季度問我這個問題，隨著模型開始展開，我可能會稍微改變重點，米歇爾。感謝你的提問。

Thanks, Michele. I will take the next question from Jason Kenney at Santander.

謝謝，米歇爾。我將接受桑坦德銀行的 Jason Kenney 的下一個問題。

Murray, I'm going to try and pin you down a bit on customers & products financial delivery this year. Last year, full year '22, $10.8 billion; quite a good first quarter, $2.8 billion. I mean the run rate points to another double-digit EBIT delivery this year. I realize that you've got some confidence in customers going into the second and third quarter. What kind of level of EBIT do you think is sustainable from this on a through-cycle normalized basis because it's got an interesting division?

Murray，我將嘗試讓你了解今年的客戶和產品財務交付情況。去年，22 年全年，108 億美元；第一季度相當不錯，28 億美元。我的意思是運行率指向今年另一個兩位數的息稅前利潤交付。我意識到您對進入第二和第三季度的客戶有信心。您認為在整個週期標準化的基礎上，什麼樣的息稅前利潤水平是可持續的，因為它有一個有趣的部門？

And then secondly, do you have a view on the valuation disparity U.K. and Europe versus the U.S. majors in a minute? One of your competitors commenting that it's all about location, location, location.

其次，您對英國和歐洲與美國專業公司的估值差異有何看法？您的一位競爭對手評論說，一切都與位置、位置、位置有關。

Yes. I think on the second one, I don't know what the competitors are saying. But from our perspective, it just looks like an opportunity. If we perform, as we're saying, we're performing, growing the upstream volumes, for example, the 200 Kb/d from the high-margin oil and gas businesses, growing that LNG portfolio, as we talked about, and growing C&M and the transition growth engines.

是的。我認為在第二個方面，我不知道競爭對手在說什麼。但從我們的角度來看，這只是一個機會。如果我們執行，正如我們所說，我們正在執行，增加上游量，例如，來自高利潤石油和天然氣業務的 200 Kb/d，正如我們所說的那樣，增加液化天然氣組合，並增加C&M 和轉型增長引擎。

I think that's the first thing that we have to do. This was another strong quarter above expectation, and we just have to constantly continue to perform that way. And through the buybacks and the potential dividend increases that the Board has outlined of $4 billion a year of buybacks and 4 billion -- or 4% increase in dividend at $60, we just see the ability to converge. And that's a great opportunity to work our way through. So that's probably all I have to say on that one.

我認為這是我們必須做的第一件事。這是另一個超出預期的強勁季度，我們只需要不斷地繼續以這種方式表現。通過回購和潛在的股息增加，董事會概述了每年 40 億美元的回購和 40 億美元——或 4% 的股息增加至 60 美元，我們只看到了收斂的能力。這是一個很好的機會來解決問題。所以這可能就是我要說的。

And then on the C&P side, I don't -- I mean I guess the way I'd say this is we have our targets for C&M growing to $7 billion through the decade. So I won't -- or through 2025. I won't correct -- I won't change that.

然後在 C&P 方面，我沒有——我的意思是我想我會這麼說的方式是我們的 C&M 目標在十年內增長到 70 億美元。所以我不會——或者到 2025 年。我不會糾正——我不會改變它。

As far as the refineries go, you're kind of asking our refining -- what's the refining margin look like moving forward. Very difficult thing to predict. I suppose we're more optimistic than we were a few years ago because of refining outage and because of continuing demand growth inside fuels markets, especially aviation. So I'm not going to try to guide on what RMM would be, but think about it in chunks of our C&M that we provided guidance for. And then you choose your refining environment, you can use rules of thumb to see where you think we'll go.

就煉油廠而言，你有點在問我們的煉油——煉油利潤率如何向前發展。很難預測的事情。我想我們比幾年前更加樂觀，因為煉油中斷以及燃料市場（尤其是航空）的需求持續增長。所以我不打算嘗試指導 RMM 是什麼，而是在我們提供指導的 C&M 塊中考慮它。然後你選擇你的精煉環境，你可以使用經驗法則看看你認為我們會去哪裡。

But we're pretty happy with our refining slate. We're happy with the 1.5, the capacity we have now. And we're very much looking forward to taking the refining side of the business and moving it from gray to green or blue hydrogen and building out the 5 biofuel plants that we talked about that should make for a more ratable earnings as we move forward. Sorry, I'm being a little bit evasive, but I didn't want to try to guide too closely on RMM. Thanks, Jason.

但我們對我們的精煉名單非常滿意。我們對 1.5 感到滿意，我們現在擁有的容量。我們非常期待將業務的精煉方面從灰色氫轉移到綠色或藍色氫，並建設我們談到的 5 家生物燃料工廠，隨著我們的前進，這應該會帶來更可觀的收益。抱歉，我有點迴避，但我不想嘗試在 RMM 上提供過於緊密的指導。謝謝，傑森。

Okay. Thanks, Jason. We'll take the next question from Amy Wong at Credit Suisse.

好的。謝謝，傑森。我們將接受瑞士信貸的 Amy Wong 的下一個問題。

I got a couple of questions. The first one is just to go back to Australia. I appreciate you're not going to talk about the terms of Browse, but it was more just kind of strategically, given you have some existing operations. You also, last year, announced the large investments in the Asian Renewable Energy Hub. You've got this leaning into more getting more Browse. How do we think about how much capital employed you're going to have in Australia? And where does that kind of comp towards the rest of world? And so a bit of color on what's happening there.

我有幾個問題。第一個只是回到澳大利亞。我很感激你不會談論 Browse 的條款，但它更像是一種戰略，因為你有一些現有的操作。去年，您還宣布了對亞洲可再生能源中心的大量投資。您已經傾向於越來越多地瀏覽。我們如何考慮您將在澳大利亞擁有多少資本？這種對世界其他地方的補償在哪裡？所以那裡發生的事情有點顏色。

And then the second question I had is on Archaea Energy. I appreciate it's only been a few months since you've had that business completed and acquired, but seems to be having a lot of momentum in that biogas business, and it's important for your growth engines as well. So just really love to get an update on where you are on your targets on that one. If things have accelerated, have you found more positive or negative things with Archaea?

然後我的第二個問題是關於 Archaea Energy。我很感激您完成並收購該業務僅幾個月，但該沼氣業務似乎勢頭強勁，這對您的增長引擎也很重要。所以真的很想知道你在那個目標上的位置。如果事情加速了，你有沒有發現 Archaea 有更多積極或消極的事情？

Okay. Great. I think in Archaea, as you said, I mean it's a little bit early to be saying anything. We'll update the markets at our event in October in Denver, where we'll go through Archaea as well. I think that will be a more appropriate time. I think we remain pleased with that 50 operating plants, 80 to build.

好的。偉大的。正如你所說，我認為在 Archaea 中，我的意思是現在說什麼都為時過早。我們將在 10 月於丹佛舉行的活動中更新市場，我們也將在活動中介紹古生菌。我認為那將是一個更合適的時間。我認為我們仍然對 50 家運營中的工廠、80 家待建工廠感到滿意。

When we bought it, when we put the economics together for the bid, et cetera, in Archaea, the IRA really wasn't in place and we were unclear in it. The IRA is clearly providing more benefits than we thought through investment tax credits and through a different treatment on RINs. So we look forward to that. And I think we'll unpack that story more when we talk to the market in October. Apologies, it's just been a few months. So I think it's too early to say anything other than our enthusiasm for it remains very, very high.

當我們購買它時，當我們將經濟學放在一起進行投標時，等等，在 Archaea 中，IRA 確實沒有到位，我們不清楚。 IRA 顯然通過投資稅收抵免和對 RIN 的不同待遇提供了比我們想像的更多的好處。所以我們對此充滿期待。我認為當我們在 10 月份與市場交談時，我們會更多地解開這個故事。抱歉，才過去幾個月。所以我認為現在說什麼還為時過早，除了我們對它的熱情仍然非常非常高。

As far as Australia, there -- we do have a tremendous amount of opportunities to increase investments inside Australia. The ones, obviously, we've got in the C&M business, we've got New Zealand, Australia, where we stand the chance to electrify the fleets there. And we're seeing quite a bit of uptake there. On the bio side, the bio demand for sustainable aviation fuel is very high. That's why we're converting [quinoa]. So that's a good investment for us as well.

就澳大利亞而言，我們確實有大量機會增加在澳大利亞境內的投資。那些，顯然，我們在 C&M 業務中，我們在新西蘭、澳大利亞，在那裡我們有機會為那裡的艦隊電氣化。我們在那裡看到了相當多的吸收。在生物方面，對可持續航空燃料的生物需求非常高。這就是我們轉變 [藜麥] 的原因。所以這對我們來說也是一項很好的投資。

And then we have 2 very, very large land positions in Australia: one, ARA, that you talked about; another one as well that give us the opportunity to move through in a phased manner starting with either green electricity or green hydrogen into the mining companies to help them decarbonize. We're a big fuel supplier to them now. And it's a way to start to shift what we provide from both through electricity and through fuel. And then the start of export, whether that be through bunkering or whether that be through direct export of hydrogen and ammonia, depending on what the customers want over time.

然後我們在澳大利亞有 2 個非常非常大的土地位置：一個，ARA，你說的；另一個讓我們有機會分階段進行，從綠色電力或綠色氫開始進入礦業公司，幫助他們脫碳。我們現在是他們的大型燃料供應商。這是一種開始轉變我們通過電力和燃料提供的方式。然後開始出口，無論是通過加油還是通過直接出口氫氣和氨，取決於客戶隨著時間的推移想要什麼。

So it's a bit early to predict where CapEx will go. We have -- need to get to FID on these things before we decide it. But certainly, between, as you say, Browse, ARA, the Pilbara region, as long -- along with biofuels, et cetera, we stand the chance to grow CAPM in Australia strongly. And I think it's a great market that we worked in for many, many years. And I like it because I was born there as well. I don't often advertise that one. I thought you might like a bit of humor there. Thanks, Amy. I hope that helps.

因此，現在預測資本支出的去向還為時過早。在我們做出決定之前，我們已經 - 需要就這些事情進行 FID。但可以肯定的是，正如你所說，在 Browse、ARA、Pilbara 地區之間，只要與生物燃料等一起，我們就有機會在澳大利亞大力發展 CAPM。我認為這是一個我們工作了很多年的偉大市場。我喜歡它，因為我也是在那裡出生的。我不經常為那個做廣告。我想你可能喜歡那裡有點幽默。謝謝，艾米。我希望這有幫助。

Thanks, Amy. An Australian-Canadian. Next question, Henri Patricot at UBS.

謝謝，艾米。澳大利亞裔加拿大人。下一個問題，瑞銀的 Henri Patricot。

I just have one question on the upstream and liquids realization, which were lower than usual compared to benchmark prices. Can you give us some background on what drove that this quarter and whether we should expect a bit of a reversal over the rest of the year?

我只有一個關於上游和液體變現的問題，與基準價格相比，這比平時要低。您能否介紹一下本季度的推動因素以及我們是否應該期待今年餘下時間出現一些逆轉？

I think there was a little bit of lag inside that. If I remember, Henri, we'll have to get Craig to come back to you. But I think we just had some WTI lag that will come through later in the quarter. But we'll Craig...

我認為裡面有一點滯後。如果我記得，亨利，我們必須讓克雷格回到你身邊。但我認為我們只是在本季度晚些時候出現了一些 WTI 滯後。但是我們會讓克雷格...

Yes, I'll follow up with you after, Henri, on that one. No problem.

是的，Henri，我會在那之後跟進你。沒問題。

But I think it was inside some of the lag effects we saw, Henri. Thank you for the question.

但我認為這是我們看到的一些滯後效應，Henri。感謝你的提問。

Thanks, Henri. We'll go from Henri to Henry. Henry Tarr at Berenberg, next question, please.

謝謝，亨利。我們將從亨利到亨利。 Berenberg 的 Henry Tarr，請問下一個問題。

Just 2 quickly. One on Rosneft, just whether there's any change there or any prospective of receiving anything potentially from the stake where it's completely written off at this point, but just whether there's been any communication around that. And then on windfall taxes and any impact that you've seen there in Q1 or expecting for '23.

快點2。一個關於 Rosneft，只是那裡是否有任何變化，或者是否有可能從此時完全註銷的股份中獲得任何潛在的東西，但是否有任何溝通。然後是暴利稅以及您在第一季度看到的或預期對 23 年產生的任何影響。

Yes. Thanks, Henry. Rosneft, I'm afraid, no change. It's a commercial progress, and we don't disclose any details of the commercial process. And we'll update you when something changes on that. We haven't received any dividends nor do we plan to receive any dividends either. It's probably all I can really say on Rosneft.

是的。謝謝，亨利。俄羅斯石油公司，恐怕沒有變化。這是一個商業進展，我們不會透露商業過程的任何細節。當事情發生變化時，我們會及時通知您。我們沒有收到任何股息，也不打算收到任何股息。這可能是我對俄羅斯石油公司真正能說的。

On windfall taxes, I presume you're meaning the North Sea. A few statistics for you, $2.2 billion paid in taxes in the North Sea, $2.2 billion of taxes paid in the North Sea in 2022, including $700 million on the EPL, the energy profit levy. And for the first quarter, we paid about $650 million of taxes in the North Sea. That included $300 million on the profit levy. So that's over $1 billion now on the profit levy in the North Sea. As far as European solidarity taxes, we paid about EUR 500 million in last year, in 2022. I hope that helps, Henry.

關於暴利稅，我想你指的是北海。為您提供一些統計數據，在北海繳納的稅款為 22 億美元，2022 年在北海繳納的稅款為 22 億美元，其中包括能源利潤稅 EPL 的 7 億美元。第一季度，我們在北海繳納了約 6.5 億美元的稅款。其中包括 3 億美元的利潤稅。因此，現在北海的利潤稅已超過 10 億美元。至於歐洲團結稅，我們在去年，也就是 2022 年支付了大約 5 億歐元。我希望這對你有所幫助，亨利。

Henry, thank you. We'll take the penultimate question from Kim Fustier, HSBC.

亨利，謝謝你。我們將接受來自匯豐銀行的 Kim Fustier 的倒數第二個問題。

I just had 2, please. First one is on gas in India, could you just talk about your investments and activity there? That deepwater gas project feels like it's also been quite a long time coming. And also, how the recent gas pricing reforms in India are impacting economics there?

拜託，我只有 2 個。第一個是在印度的天然氣，你能談談你在那裡的投資和活動嗎？那個深水天然氣項目感覺也已經等了很長時間了。此外，印度最近的天然氣定價改革如何影響那裡的經濟？

The second one is on CCS. Could you talk about the recent CCS developments in your portfolio, in particular, the Viking project in U.K. and in the Southern China project with PetroChina. And under that, I'm just curious about what might be the business model or incentives to do CCS in China.

第二個是在 CCS 上。您能否談談最近在您的投資組合中的 CCS 開發，特別是英國的 Viking 項目和與中國石油合作的華南項目。在此之下，我只是好奇在中國開展 CCS 的商業模式或激勵機制是什麼。

Great. Thanks, Kim. Thank you for the questions. Gas in India, this is the third project we brought online, the MJ project, which is just in its final commissioning stages. So we've had a couple more projects that have come online previously. And we're now providing -- I think the statistic is 1/3 of natural gas into India through those offshore facilities.

偉大的。謝謝，金。謝謝你的問題。印度的天然氣，這是我們上線的第三個項目，即 MJ 項目，該項目正處於最後的調試階段。所以我們之前有幾個項目已經上線。我們現在提供 - 我認為統計數據是通過這些海上設施進入印度的天然氣的 1/3。

I think it's ended up being a pretty decent investment. We're long-term contracted with consumers directly on the gas prices. So given that we're going to industrials, we're not impacted by the latest wave of change from India as far as I understand. So I think that answers the India question.

我認為這是一項相當不錯的投資。我們與消費者直接就天然氣價格簽訂了長期合同。因此，鑑於我們要進入工業領域，據我所知，我們不會受到印度最新一波變革的影響。所以我認為這回答了印度問題。

On CCS, in the Viking area, so if you think about what's happening, the government has awarded the next round of projects for incentivization. Net Zero Teesside, along with our blue hydrogen plant and, of course, NEP offshore, which is the storage injection caverns, those are located very close to Viking. So they provide further capacity in the event the NEP ones are filled up over time. And we already have a pipeline to Viking from historic ownership that we have through the Southern North Sea, and it has access to the east in case carbon sequestration comes from Europe.

在 CCS 上，在維京地區，所以如果你考慮正在發生的事情，政府已經授予下一輪激勵項目。淨零提賽德，以及我們的藍氫工廠，當然還有近海 NEP，即儲存注入洞穴，它們都非常靠近 Viking。因此，如果 NEP 容量隨著時間的推移被填滿，它們將提供更多容量。我們已經擁有一條從我們擁有的歷史所有權到北海南部的維京管道，並且它可以通往東部，以防來自歐洲的碳封存。

So it was a very cheap option for us to buy, to set up more optionality both for Net Zero Teesside and then potential continental import of CO2 over time. So it was a nice little option to build as the U.K. is really pushing -- the U.K. government is really pushing CCS as a way to decarbonize the economy. So we're very, very pleased on that.

因此，這對我們來說是一個非常便宜的選擇，可以為蒂賽德淨零排放以及隨著時間的推移潛在的大陸進口二氧化碳設置更多的選擇權。因此，在英國真正推動的情況下，這是一個不錯的小選擇——英國政府確實在推動 CCS 作為經濟脫碳的一種方式。所以我們對此非常非常高興。

And on China, I think, Craig, we're going to have to get back to that one.

關於中國，我認為，克雷格，我們將不得不回到那個問題上。

Yes, that one that I immediately have to hand. So we will come back to you on Southern China, Kim.

是的，我必須立即交出的那個。因此，金，我們將在華南地區與您會面。

We'll come back to you on that, Kim. Apologies, I don't often miss questions, but I missed that one.

金，我們會再回來找你的。抱歉，我不經常錯過問題，但我錯過了那個問題。

Thanks, Kim. And then we will take the final question from Alastair Syme at Citi.

謝謝，金。然後我們將接受花旗銀行的 Alastair Syme 的最後一個問題。

Murray, February, you made a bit of a strategic shift. And I mean it felt to me like the press reported that you pivoted back to oil and gas and felt to me more like the pivot that was going on was within what you were doing in the transition. Given you've done a bunch of investor meetings since then, I'm just sort of interested in the conversations you've been having with investors on both sides of the Atlantic and how they've interpreted the shift.

默里，二月，你做了一些戰略轉變。我的意思是，對我來說，就像媒體報導的那樣，你轉向石油和天然氣，對我來說，更像是正在進行的轉向是在你在轉型過程中所做的事情。鑑於你從那以後參加了很多投資者會議，我只是對你與大西洋兩岸的投資者進行的對話以及他們如何解釋這種轉變感興趣。

Yes. Thanks, Al. Look, the way I'd characterize it is, as Bernard said, we're leaning in both to transition growth engines and oil and gas, another $8 billion into oil and gas and another $8 billion into the transition growth engines, focused on the shorter cycle ones, so the biogas, biofuels, convenience and electrification that society is demanding.

是的。謝謝，艾爾。看，我描述它的方式是，正如伯納德所說，我們既傾向於轉型增長引擎，又傾向於石油和天然氣，另外 80 億美元用於石油和天然氣，另外 80 億美元用於轉型增長引擎，專注於較短的周期，因此沼氣、生物燃料、社會需要的便利性和電氣化。

I think shareholder conversations, we've had an extensive amount of engagement, both after February and then leading up to our AGM. And you see broad support. That's what we saw at the votes inside the AGM, and that's what you saw through share price response. I think shareholders like the fact that we continue to focus on short cycle inside the upstream, driving more EBITDA and more potential for distributions. And I think they like the fact that we shifted the pattern on the transition growth engines to the higher-return, nearer-cycle stuff as well, again, driving higher earnings and the potential for our distributions to shareholders over time.

我認為股東對話，我們在 2 月之後和年度股東大會之前進行了廣泛的參與。你會看到廣泛的支持。這就是我們在 AGM 投票中看到的情況，也是您通過股價反應看到的情況。我認為股東喜歡我們繼續關注上游內部的短週期，推動更多的 EBITDA 和更多的分配潛力。而且我認為他們喜歡這樣一個事實，即我們將轉型增長引擎的模式也轉移到了回報率更高、週期更短的東西上，這再次推動了更高的收益以及我們隨著時間的推移向股東分配的潛力。

So very, very, very supportive shareholder meetings on all sides of the Atlantic with the moves that we made back in February 7. I hope that helps, Al.

大西洋兩岸的股東大會非常非常支持我們在 2 月 7 日採取的行動。我希望這能有所幫助，艾爾。

Murray, can I ask, do you sense there's been any sort of reengagement from maybe European investors that might not have looked at BP in the past?

Murray，我能問一下，你是否感覺到過去可能沒有關注過 BP 的歐洲投資者有任何形式的重新參與？

Yes. Yes, I think there has. I think the fact that we're pivoting hard to the shorter-cycle transition growth engines has captured their imagination. We've got a heavy, heavy demand coming out of Continental Europe for road shows. So I'm off to California this afternoon for road shows with some big shareholders out there. But we have 4 teams going into Continental Europe to meet from Finland to Spain and in between. So very, very heavy demand for engagement, and we'll look forward for them buying into the shares over time now.

是的。是的，我認為有。我認為我們正在努力轉向更短週期的轉型增長引擎這一事實已經抓住了他們的想像力。歐洲大陸對路演的需求非常非常大。所以我今天下午要去加利福尼亞參加一些大股東的路演。但我們有 4 支球隊前往歐洲大陸，從芬蘭到西班牙以及介於兩者之間的地方會面。對參與的需求非常非常大，我們期待他們現在隨著時間的推移購買股票。

Maybe just a few closing remarks, Craig, if that sounds okay.

也許只是幾句結束語，克雷格，如果聽起來不錯的話。

Yes, go ahead, Murray. Yes, and I've got one just to close off on Shah Deniz in the interest of...

是的，繼續吧，默里。是的，為了......，我有一個只是為了關閉 Shah Deniz。

Oh, you close on Shah Deniz first...

哦，你先關閉 Shah Deniz...

Okay. It was just a follow-up, 2 points. In the interest of having everybody online, I think just to confirm on Shah Deniz, yes, we have spare capacity. I think Murray said 5%. I think it's around 10%. Basically, where we are on Shah Deniz just now is the European leg of the Southern Gas Corridor is operating, however, at full capacity. So as we look at opportunities there to expand that capacity, the TAP pipeline has already launched a first level expansion. There's an additional expansion possible around that.

好的。這只是一個跟進，2分。為了讓每個人都在線，我想向 Shah Deniz 確認一下，是的，我們有備用容量。我認為默里說的是 5%。我認為大約是10%。基本上，我們剛才在 Shah Deniz 所在的位置是南部天然氣走廊的歐洲段，但正在滿負荷運轉。因此，當我們在那裡尋找擴大產能的機會時，TAP 管道已經啟動了第一級擴張。圍繞它還有一個額外的擴展可能。

TANAP can also be expanded. And both TAP and TANAP expansion would be via addition of compression. So there is work to be done there. I think, Murray, you've kind of framed that. There's opportunity, and we're obviously working closely around that in terms of gas into Europe.

TANAP 也可以擴展。 TAP 和 TANAP 擴展都將通過添加壓縮來實現。所以那裡還有工作要做。我認為，默里，你有點陷害了這一點。有機會，我們顯然在向歐洲輸送天然氣方面密切合作。

The one other thing, I think, Henri, just quickly on, I think, your question on oil price, as Murray said, lag impacts, mostly actually in the UAE, just to clarify on that one. And Lucas, I'll come back to you separately on BPX.

另一件事，我想，Henri，我認為，正如 Murray 所說，你關於油價的問題滯後影響，主要是在阿聯酋，只是為了澄清這一點。盧卡斯，我會在 BPX 上單獨回复你。

I think those were the 3 homework questions, but we will have an opportunity to talk a little bit later as well. And then on that note, sorry, Murray, closing remarks.

我認為這是 3 個家庭作業問題，但我們稍後也會有機會討論。然後在那張紙條上，抱歉，穆雷，結束語。

Great. Thanks, Craig. I appreciate that follow-up. Look, a few things, just to say thank you for listening. BP remains a company that is performing very well, as the tagline goes, performing well, transforming another good quarter, especially on the trading side and very robust performance across our refineries and the upstream as well.

偉大的。謝謝，克雷格。我很欣賞後續行動。看，有幾件事，只是想說謝謝你的聆聽。 BP 仍然是一家表現非常出色的公司，正如標語所言，表現良好，轉變了另一個良好的季度，尤其是在交易方面，我們的煉油廠和上游也表現非常強勁。

We remain confident in the future. We've got strong growth ahead of us over the next few years. It's great to see Mad Dog Phase 2 up and ramping up. It's great to see that the Indian projects are coming. And we have more start-ups to come this year, another 3 start-ups to come this year, along with growth inside the LNG offtakes, as we've talked about.

我們對未來充滿信心。未來幾年，我們將實現強勁增長。很高興看到 Mad Dog Phase 2 啟動並加速發展。很高興看到印度項目即將到來。正如我們所討論的，今年我們將有更多的初創企業，今年還將有 3 家初創企業，以及 LNG 承購業務的增長。

So great momentum moving forward, and thank you very much for listening.

前進的勢頭如此之大，非常感謝您的聆聽。