英國石油 (BP) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to today's presentation. This morning, we're going to cover BP's fourth quarter and full year '22 results. We'll also provide an update on strategic progress.

大家早上好，歡迎來到今天的演講。今天早上，我們將報導 BP 的第四季度和全年 22 年業績。我們還將提供有關戰略進展的最新信息。

Before we begin today, let me draw your attention to our usual cautionary statement. During today's presentation, we'll make forward-looking statements, including those that refer to our estimates, plans and expectations. Actual results and outcomes could differ materially due to the factors we note on this slide and in our U.K. and SEC filings. Please refer to our annual report, stock exchange announcement and SEC filings for more details. These documents are available on our website.

在我們今天開始之前，讓我提請您注意我們通常的警告聲明。在今天的演講中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，包括那些涉及我們的估計、計劃和預期的陳述。由於我們在這張幻燈片以及我們在英國和美國證券交易委員會的文件中註意到的因素，實際結果和結果可能會有重大差異。有關更多詳細信息，請參閱我們的年度報告、證券交易所公告和美國證券交易委員會備案文件。這些文件可在我們的網站上找到。

On that, let me now hand over to Bernard.

關於這一點，現在讓我交給伯納德。

Well, thanks, Craig. And good morning, everyone. It's great to have those of you on the call join us, and obviously it's great to see people here in London this morning.

好吧，謝謝，克雷格。大家早上好。很高興你們中的那些人加入我們的行列，顯然很高興今天早上在倫敦見到人們。

Before we begin. After yesterday's terrible earthquakes in Turkey and Syria, our thoughts obviously go out to colleagues and everyone with friends and family in the region. All our colleagues are accounted for and we have a team set up to support them, but of course, many, many more people were affected. Thousands of people have died, and we'll do what we can to support. There will be operational matters to attend to in time, but in our -- in the first instance, our focus is obviously on people.

在我們開始之前。在昨天土耳其和敘利亞發生可怕的地震之後，我們顯然很關心我們的同事以及該地區的所有朋友和家人。我們所有的同事都受到了影響，我們已經成立了一個團隊來支持他們，但當然，還有很多很多人受到了影響。成千上萬的人已經死亡，我們將盡我們所能提供支持。會有一些運營問題需要及時處理，但在我們——首先，我們的重點顯然是在人身上。

I'm here today with Murray, who is standing ready to take over here in a few minutes, poised. And I'll be joined in a bit for Q&A by Carol Howle, Gordon Birrell, Emma Delaney and Anja Dotzenrath. The rest of the BP leadership team are also around, Giulia Chierchia, Kerry Dryburgh, Eric Nitcher, Leigh-Ann Russell, so you'll get a chance to meet them as well.

今天我和穆雷一起來到這裡，他已經準備好在幾分鐘內接管這裡，蓄勢待發。 Carol Howle、Gordon Birrell、Emma Delaney 和 Anja Dotzenrath 將加入我的問答環節。 BP 領導團隊的其他成員也在附近，Giulia Chierchia、Kerry Dryburgh、Eric Nitcher、Leigh-Ann Russell，因此您也將有機會見到他們。

3 years ago, we announced a significant strategic change for BP pivoting from, at that time, a 110-year history of being an international oil company or IOC to becoming an integrated energy company or IEC. I'm personally in awe of what the BP team has delivered since then; and all during the most volatile and the most uncertain times that many of us, I think, have ever experienced. When we updated the market this time last year, I said to you all that our direction was set. Our change was done and we were now 100% focused on delivery, and that is exactly what we have been doing.

3 年前，我們宣布了 BP 的重大戰略轉變，從當時擁有 110 年曆史的國際石油公司或 IOC 轉型為綜合能源公司或 IEC。從那時起，我個人對 BP 團隊所交付的成果感到敬畏；在我認為我們中的許多人都經歷過的最動盪和最不確定的時期。去年這個時候更新行情的時候，我跟大家說，我們的方向已經確定了。我們的改變已經完成，我們現在 100% 專注於交付，而這正是我們一直在做的。

With that backdrop, there are 3 things that you'll hear from us today. The first and important is that BP is performing. Our businesses are running well. Our costs are being controlled. We are reducing emissions. We are growing value. We feel and believe our strategy is working. And we are more confident than ever that what we laid out in 2020 as a strategy is the right one; and as we've said, and you're bored of it, consistently, that we are performing while we are transforming. Second, we are leaning further into our strategy. We're planning to invest more into our transition growth engines and -- not or, and at the same time investing more into today's oil and gas system, a plan that we expect will materially increase EBITDA by '25 and by 2030.

在這樣的背景下，今天您將從我們這裡聽到三件事。首先也是重要的一點是 BP 正在執行。我們的業務運行良好。我們的成本正在得到控制。我們正在減少排放。我們正在增加價值。我們感覺並相信我們的戰略正在奏效。我們比以往任何時候都更有信心，我們在 2020 年制定的戰略是正確的；正如我們所說的那樣，你對此感到厭倦，始終如一，我們在轉型的同時也在表演。其次，我們正在進一步傾向於我們的戰略。我們計劃對我們的轉型增長引擎進行更多投資，而不是，同時對當今的石油和天然氣系統進行更多投資，我們預計該計劃將在 25 年和 2030 年之前大幅增加 EBITDA。

And third, crucially, we are delivering for shareholders. In 2022, we have grown distributions through an increase in our resilient dividend and delivery of a material share buyback program.

第三，至關重要的是，我們正在為股東提供服務。 2022 年，我們通過增加彈性股息和實施重大股票回購計劃增加了分配。

So let's start it off, if it's okay, with a little video that shows -- it's 2 to 3 minutes, so it won't be too long. That shows some of the delivery by the team at BP over the last 3 years. So we're going to play the video.

所以讓我們開始吧，如果可以的話，放一段小視頻—— 2 到 3 分鐘，所以不會太長。這顯示了 BP 團隊在過去 3 年中的一些交付。所以我們要播放視頻。

(presentation)

（推介會）

So thanks for -- it's as much for our own teams that -- we'll be showing them later today, as anything else, but I might be a bit biased. I am probably a bit biased, but I think that's pretty brilliant. And I'm really proud of the people at BP for their part in delivering that.

所以感謝——這對我們自己的團隊來說同樣重要——我們將在今天晚些時候展示它們，就像其他任何東西一樣，但我可能有點偏見。我可能有點偏見，但我認為這非常棒。我為 BP 的員工在實現這一目標方面所做的貢獻感到非常自豪。

Turning now to focus on delivery in 2022; first, reflecting, as we said in the video, on safety. At BP, safety comes first. It's core to the way that we live our purpose. We have seen our combined Tier 1 and Tier 2 process safety events continue to improve in 2022 compared to 2021. However, we do know from incidents during the year that there's always more that we can and must do. And we will do that. And safety remains and is foundational obviously to everything that we do.

現在轉向專注於 2022 年的交付；首先，正如我們在視頻中所說的那樣，反思安全問題。在 BP，安全是第一位的。它是我們實現目標的方式的核心。與 2021 年相比，我們已經看到 2022 年我們合併的 1 級和 2 級過程安全事件繼續改善。但是，我們確實從這一年的事件中知道，我們總是可以而且必須做更多的事情。我們會那樣做。安全仍然存在，並且顯然是我們所做的一切的基礎。

Turning, secondly, to our businesses, where our focus on operational reliability and cost performance underpinned strong financial delivery. Adjusted EBITDA for 2022 was $60.7 billion. Operating cash flow was $40.9 billion, including a working capital build of $6.9 billion. Net debt reduced for the 11th quarter in a row, to reach $21.4 billion, the lowest level in almost a decade. And return on average capital employed was 30.5%.

其次，轉向我們的業務，我們對運營可靠性和成本績效的關注支撐了強勁的財務交付。 2022 年調整後的 EBITDA 為 607 億美元。經營現金流為 409 億美元，其中包括 69 億美元的營運資金建設。淨債務連續第 11 個季度減少，達到 214 億美元，為近十年來的最低水平。平均已動用資本回報率為 30.5%。

And third, we delivered for shareholders. Executing against our clear, consistent and disciplined financial framework and delivering what we believe are sector-leading distributions, today, we have announced a 10% increase in our dividend per ordinary share for the fourth quarter, underpinned by our strong underlying performance and supported by our plans to lean into our strategy and deliver further growth in EBITDA. Including this increase, our dividend per ordinary share for the fourth quarter is 21% higher than a year ago and, very importantly, fully accommodated within our resilient $40 per barrel balance point. And since commencing the share buyback program in 2021, we have reduced our issued share capital by 11%.

第三，我們為股東提供服務。根據我們清晰、一致和紀律嚴明的財務框架執行，並提供我們認為行業領先的分配，今天，我們宣布第四季度每股普通股股息增加 10%，這得益於我們強勁的基礎業績和我們計劃採用我們的戰略並實現 EBITDA 的進一步增長。包括這一增長，我們第四季度的每股普通股股息比一年前高出 21%，非常重要的是，完全符合我們每桶 40 美元的彈性平衡點。自 2021 年啟動股票回購計劃以來，我們已將已發行股本減少 11%。

I'll say more about our plan to lean further into our strategy in a moment, but let me first hand over to Murray to run through our results in more detail.

我稍後會詳細說明我們進一步製定戰略的計劃，但讓我先交給穆雷更詳細地分析我們的結果。

Murray?

默里？

Great. Thanks, Bernard. And good morning, everyone. It's so nice to see you in the room and online.

偉大的。謝謝，伯納德。大家早上好。很高興在房間里和網上見到你。

As usual, I will start with the macro environment. During the fourth quarter, Brent fell by 12%, relative to the third quarter, to average $89 per barrel. This reflected increased uncertainty over the economic outlook and relatively high production from Russia and OPEC. In the first quarter, we expect prices to remain supported by recovering Chinese demand, ongoing uncertainty around the level of Russian exports and low inventory levels.

像往常一樣，我將從宏觀環境開始。第四季度，布倫特原油較第三季度下跌 12%，平均每桶 89 美元。這反映出經濟前景的不確定性增加以及俄羅斯和歐佩克產量相對較高。在第一季度，我們預計價格將繼續受到中國需求復蘇、俄羅斯出口水平持續不確定性和低庫存水平的支撐。

Turning to natural gas. During the fourth quarter, we saw a sharp decline in both spot and futures prices. The quarter average TTF price fell by 51% as a warm start to winter allowed Europe to maintain inventory levels. In the U.S., Henry Hub declined as storage levels recovered towards seasonal norms. The outlook for the first quarter remains dependent on weather in the northern hemisphere and the pace of Chinese demand recovery.

轉向天然氣。在第四季度，我們看到現貨和期貨價格都大幅下跌。本季度平均 TTF 價格下降了 51%，因為冬季的溫暖開局讓歐洲得以維持庫存水平。在美國，Henry Hub 隨著存儲水平恢復到季節性標準而下降。第一季度的前景仍取決於北半球的天氣和中國需求復甦的步伐。

Moving to refining. Consistent with trends and seasonal demand, global margins decreased modestly to average $32.20 per barrel during the quarter. We expect industry refining margins to remain elevated in the first quarter due to sanctioning of Russian crude and product.

轉向精煉。與趨勢和季節性需求一致，本季度全球利潤率小幅下降至平均每桶 32.20 美元。由於對俄羅斯原油和產品的製裁，我們預計第一季度工業煉油利潤率將保持高位。

Moving to our long-term price assumptions. Last week, we presented the BP 2023 energy outlook. And in line with our annual cycle, we've reviewed our price assumptions used for investment appraisal and accounting. To summarize: The continuing impact of the war in Ukraine and the resulting energy shortages, together with changes in the structure of energy markets post COVID, means we now expect oil and gas prices and refining margins to remain higher throughout much of this decade. Further out, we continue to expect prices to fall as the energy transition gathers pace. The charts on this slide show our old and new assumptions for Brent, Henry Hub and the refining marker margin. In addition, reflecting current market conditions, we've raised our international gas price assumptions through the middle of the decade. In the second half of the decade, we assume that prices return towards historical levels. These changes have no impact on our cash balance point of $40 Brent, $11 RMM and $3 Henry Hub.

轉向我們的長期價格假設。上週，我們發布了 BP 2023 能源展望。根據我們的年度週期，我們審查了用於投資評估和會計的價格假設。總結一下：烏克蘭戰爭的持續影響和由此產生的能源短缺，以及 COVID 後能源市場結構的變化，意味著我們現在預計石油和天然氣價格以及煉油利潤率在這十年的大部分時間裡都將保持較高水平。此外，隨著能源轉型步伐加快，我們繼續預計價格會下跌。這張幻燈片上的圖表顯示了我們對布倫特原油、亨利港和煉油市場利潤率的新舊假設。此外，為反映當前的市場狀況，我們提高了本世紀中期的國際天然氣價格假設。在這十年的下半年，我們假設價格會回到歷史水平。這些變化對我們的 40 美元布倫特原油、11 美元 RMM 和 3 美元 Henry Hub 的現金餘額點沒有影響。

Turning to results. In the fourth quarter, we reported a profit of $10.8 billion. Allowing for post-tax adjusting items of $7.1 billion and an inventory holding loss of $1.1 billion, our underlying replacement cost profit was $4.8 billion compared to $8.2 billion in the third quarter.

轉向結果。第四季度，我們報告的利潤為 108 億美元。考慮到 71 億美元的稅後調整項目和 11 億美元的庫存持有損失，我們的基礎重置成本利潤為 48 億美元，而第三季度為 82 億美元。

Turning to business group performance compared to the third quarter. In gas & low carbon energy, the results reflects a below-average gas marketing and trading performance, compared to an exceptional result in the third quarter; lower gas realizations; and lower production. In oil P&O, production and operations, the result reflects lower liquids and gas realizations. And in customers & products, the products result reflects a higher level of turnaround and maintenance activity. The customers result reflects lower marketing margins and seasonably lower volumes.

轉向與第三季度相比的業務集團業績。在天然氣和低碳能源方面，與第三季度的優異業績相比，天然氣營銷和交易業績低於平均水平；較低的天然氣實現；和較低的產量。在石油 P&O、生產和運營中，結果反映了較低的液體和氣體實現。在客戶和產品方面，產品結果反映了更高水平的周轉和維護活動。客戶結果反映了較低的營銷利潤率和季節性較低的銷量。

In the fourth quarter, our underlying effective tax rate was 40%, bringing the rate for the full year to 34%.

第四季度，我們的基本有效稅率為 40%，使全年稅率達到 34%。

And finally, our trading business had an exceptional year; and with consistent strong delivery, has now contributed an average uplift of 4% to group ROACE over the past 3 years.

最後，我們的貿易業務取得了非凡的一年；憑藉始終如一的強勁交付，在過去 3 年中為集團 ROACE 貢獻了 4% 的平均提升。

Moving to cash flow. Operating cash flow was $13.6 billion in the fourth quarter. This included a working capital release of $4.2 billion after adjusting for inventory holding losses, fair value accounting effects and other adjusting items. Capital expenditure were $7.4 billion in the fourth quarter and $16.3 billion for the full year. For the fourth quarter, inorganic expenditure was $3.5 billion, including $3 billion for Archaea Energy, net of adjustments; and $500 million for the earlier-than-expected completion of the acquisition of EDF Energy Services.

轉向現金流。第四季度的經營現金流為 136 億美元。這包括在調整庫存持有損失、公允價值會計影響和其他調整項目後釋放 42 億美元的營運資金。第四季度的資本支出為 74 億美元，全年為 163 億美元。第四季度，無機支出為 35 億美元，其中扣除調整後的 Archaea Energy 為 30 億美元； 5 億美元用於提前完成對 EDF Energy Services 的收購。

During the quarter, BP repurchased $3.2 billion of shares.

本季度，BP 回購了價值 32 億美元的股票。

Reflecting strong cash generation, net debt fell for the 11th consecutive quarter, to reach $21.4 billion. And with surplus cash flow of $5.1 billion in the quarter, BP intends to execute a further $2.75 billion buyback prior to announcing first quarter 2023 results.

由於現金產生強勁，淨債務連續第 11 個季度下降，達到 214 億美元。憑藉本季度 51 億美元的盈餘現金流，BP 打算在宣布 2023 年第一季度業績之前進一步執行 27.5 億美元的回購。

Turning to our disciplined financial frame. Our resilient dividend remains our first priority. As Bernard outlined, for the fourth quarter, we have announced an increase in the dividend to $0.0661 per ordinary share. This is underpinned by strong underlying performance and supported by the confidence we have in delivering further growth in EBITDA as a result of our updated investment plans.

轉向我們紀律嚴明的財務框架。我們的彈性紅利仍然是我們的首要任務。正如 Bernard 概述的那樣，對於第四季度，我們已宣布將股息增加至每股普通股 0.0661 美元。這得到了強勁的基礎業績的支持，並且由於我們更新了投資計劃，我們有信心實現 EBITDA 的進一步增長。

Second, our strong investment-grade credit rating. During 2022, we reduced net debt by a further $9.2 billion. Third, disciplined investment allocation: Capital expenditure for the year were $16.3 billion, slightly higher than expected due to the phasing of our acquisition of EDF Energy Services. And finally, share buybacks, where in 2022 we announced $2.75 billion of buybacks from surplus cash flow.

其次，我們強大的投資級信用評級。 2022 年，我們將淨債務進一步減少了 92 億美元。第三，嚴格的投資分配：由於我們分階段收購 EDF Energy Services，全年資本支出為 163 億美元，略高於預期。最後，股票回購，我們在 2022 年宣布從盈餘現金流中回購 27.5 億美元。

I'll now hand back to Bernard.

我現在將交還給伯納德。

Thanks, Murray. And thanks for your leadership over the last few years, fantastic.

謝謝，默里。感謝您在過去幾年的領導，太棒了。

So let me turn then, if I may, to the update on our strategy. The world is in a very different place today compared to when we began this journey just 3 years ago. The challenges and volatility we have seen make it clear, maybe clearer than ever, that the world wants and needs a better and a more balanced energy system, one that can deliver more secure, more affordable as well as lower-carbon energy solutions, the so-called energy trilemma. To deliver that better energy system, action is needed, one, to accelerate the energy transition; and two, ensure an orderly transition from today's predominantly hydrocarbon-based energy system, with the emphasis being on orderly, to maintain ongoing energy security and affordability. This means both increased investment in lower-carbon solutions that can help society decarbonize faster and, not or -- something you'll hear me say a lot, and, not or, at the same time continued investment in hydrocarbons to keep energy flowing with energy security and affordability at a premium.

那麼，如果可以的話，讓我談談我們戰略的最新情況。與 3 年前我們開始這段旅程時相比，當今世界已大不相同。我們所看到的挑戰和動盪清楚地表明，也許比以往任何時候都更加清楚，世界需要一個更好、更平衡的能源系統，一個能夠提供更安全、更實惠和低碳能源解決方案的系統，所謂的能量三難困境。為了提供更好的能源系統，需要採取行動，一是加速能源轉型；第二，確保從當今主要以碳氫化合物為基礎的能源系統有序過渡，重點是有序，以保持持續的能源安全和可負擔性。這意味著既要增加對可以幫助社會更快脫碳的低碳解決方案的投資，又要繼續投資碳氫化合物以保持能源流動能源安全和可負擔性非常重要。

At the same time, our track record of delivery over the last 3 years has given us increased confidence in the strategy that we laid out. An integrated energy company is, we believe, uniquely set up to help deliver energy security and energy affordability today as well as to help accelerate the energy transition. And crucially, we believe we can generate growth and attractive returns in doing so. And it is for these reasons that we see the opportunity to lean further into our strategy, and that is what I will now describe. We remain focused on transforming to an integrated energy company. Our 3-pillar strategy, which includes our 5 transition growth engines, is unchanged, as is the fact that the power of integration underpins and connects it all.

與此同時，我們過去 3 年的交付記錄讓我們對我們制定的戰略更有信心。我們相信，一家綜合性能源公司的獨特成立旨在幫助實現當今的能源安全和能源負擔能力，並幫助加速能源轉型。至關重要的是，我們相信我們可以通過這樣做產生增長和有吸引力的回報。正是由於這些原因，我們看到了進一步傾斜我們的戰略的機會，這就是我現在要描述的。我們仍然專注於轉型為一家綜合能源公司。我們的 3 支柱戰略（包括我們的 5 個轉型增長引擎）沒有改變，整合的力量支撐並連接著這一切。

So what does leaning in look like? Well, first, we plan to invest up to $8 billion more this decade in our transition growth engines, on average $1 billion more each year, investing more into higher-return bioenergy and convenience and EV charging, where we have established businesses, strong capabilities and a proven track record. Alongside this, we are focusing our hydrogen and renewables and power strategy. Anja Dotzenrath, here in the front row, who I introduced earlier: Anja joined us last year and has brought real clarity to that strategy while at the same time building our organizational capability and a pipeline of value-accretive growth options. And I will come back to this shortly.

那麼傾斜是什麼樣子的呢？好吧，首先，我們計劃在這十年內在我們的轉型增長引擎上再投資 80 億美元，平均每年再投資 10 億美元，更多地投資於回報率更高的生物能源、便利設施和電動汽車充電，我們已經在這些領域建立了業務、強大的能力和可靠的業績記錄。除此之外，我們正在關注我們的氫能和可再生能源以及電力戰略。 Anja Dotzenrath，在前排，我之前介紹過他：Anja 去年加入我們，使該戰略真正清晰，同時建立了我們的組織能力和一系列增值增長選擇。我很快就會回到這個問題上。

Second, we plan to invest up to $8 billion more this decade, on average about $1 billion more each year, in today's energy system, which depends on oil and gas, targeting shorter-cycle, fast-payback oil and gas projects; and investing in certain oil and gas assets that we now expect to retain for longer. These are investments that we can deliver quickly over the next few years with minimal new infrastructure and that capture any price upside in the near to medium term.

其次，我們計劃在這十年內再投資高達 80 億美元，平均每年增加約 10 億美元，用於當今依賴石油和天然氣的能源系統，目標是周期短、回報快的石油和天然氣項目；並投資於我們現在希望保留更長時間的某些石油和天然氣資產。這些投資我們可以在未來幾年以最少的新基礎設施快速交付，並在中短期內抓住任何價格上漲空間。

As we do both of these, we expect to materially accelerate growth in EBITDA through 2030. In February last year, we laid out plans to generate group EBITDA between $39 billion and $46 billion in 2030 at $60 real in 2020 terms. With the plan we're announcing today, we now expect to deliver around $3 billion more EBITDA in 2025, rising to a name of $5 billion to $6 billion more in 2030. We expect our additional investment in transition growth engines to contribute around $1 billion in EBITDA in 2025, and we aim for around $2 billion in 2030. We expect our additional oil and gas investment to contribute around $2 billion additional EBITDA in 2025, and we aim for around $3 billion to $4 billion in 2030. And as Murray previously mentioned, we have raised our price assumptions.

當我們同時做這兩項工作時，我們預計到 2030 年將大幅加快 EBITDA 的增長。去年 2 月，我們制定了計劃，以 2020 年 60 美元的實際價值計算，到 2030 年集團 EBITDA 將達到 390 億至 460 億美元。根據我們今天宣布的計劃，我們現在預計 2025 年的 EBITDA 將增加約 30 億美元，到 2030 年將增加 50 億至 60 億美元。我們預計我們對轉型增長引擎的額外投資將貢獻約 10 億美元2025 年的 EBITDA，我們的目標是到 2030 年達到約 20 億美元。我們預計我們額外的石油和天然氣投資將在 2025 年貢獻約 20 億美元的額外 EBITDA，我們的目標是到 2030 年達到約 30 億至 40 億美元。正如 Murray 之前所說提到，我們提高了我們的價格假設。

Taken together, we now aim to generate group EBITDA of around -- of between $51 billion and $56 billion in 2030.

總而言之，我們現在的目標是在 2030 年產生大約 510 億美元至 560 億美元的集團 EBITDA。

Turning to some more detail on our plans for our transition growth engines. We expect to invest around 50% of our CapEx in 2030 in these 5 engines. This includes both organic and inorganic investments. We will continue to allocate capital to transition opportunities with discipline, applying our balanced investment criteria and investing where we can meet our return hurdle rates. We expect this investment to accelerate earnings growth from our transition growth engines, increasing EBITDA to $3 billion to $4 billion in 2025; and $10 billion to $12 billion in 2030, up from greater than $10 billion that we announced previously.

關於我們的轉型增長引擎計劃的更多細節。我們預計在 2030 年將大約 50% 的資本支出投資於這 5 台發動機。這包括有機和無機投資。我們將繼續有紀律地分配資本以應對轉型機會，應用我們的平衡投資標準，並在我們能夠滿足回報率的領域進行投資。我們預計這項投資將加速我們轉型增長引擎的收益增長，到 2025 年將 EBITDA 增加到 30 億至 40 億美元；到 2030 年將達到 100 億至 120 億美元，高於我們之前宣布的超過 100 億美元。

We continue to expect -- to deliver greater than 15% returns in bioenergy, greater than 15% returns in convenience and EV charging combined. We also expect double-digit returns in hydrogen and 6% to 8% unlevered returns in renewables.

我們繼續期望——在生物能源方面提供超過 15% 的回報，在便利性和 EV 充電方面的總回報率超過 15%。我們還預計氫能的回報率將達到兩位數，可再生能源的無槓桿回報率將達到 6% 至 8%。

Now taking each transition growth engine then in turn. In bioenergy, we are deepening our investment and now expect to deliver around $2 billion EBITDA in 2025 and aim to deliver more than $4 billion in 2030. We have established global biogas and biofuels businesses that are positioned in an increasingly supportive environment of rapidly growing demand with attractive fiscal incentives. And our trading capabilities enable us to integrate supply volumes to capture enhanced value. We plan to increase biogas supply volumes by around 6x by 2030 to around 70,000 barrels per day oil equivalent.

現在依次採用每個轉型增長引擎。在生物能源方面，我們正在深化投資，現在預計 2025 年實現約 20 億美元的 EBITDA，併計劃在 2030 年實現超過 40 億美元。我們已經建立了全球沼氣和生物燃料業務，這些業務處於需求快速增長的日益有利的環境中具有吸引力的財政激勵措施。我們的交易能力使我們能夠整合供應量以獲取更高的價值。我們計劃到 2030 年將沼氣供應量增加約 6 倍，達到每天約 70,000 桶石油當量。

We completed the acquisition of Archaea in December. And this is a real game changer for us, rapidly advancing our access to feedstock and scaling our upstream participation in the biogas value chain, which is a distinct source of competitive advantage. We're now focused on integrating Archaea into BP and building out the significant development pipeline. We've also identified opportunities to get renewable natural gas projects online faster, and we are looking at ways to improve landfill gas recovery. This is a business that we are very excited about and one that we believe can deliver significant value faster than what we had thought.

我們在 12 月完成了對 Archaea 的收購。這對我們來說是一個真正的遊戲規則改變者，它迅速推進了我們對原料的獲取，並擴大了我們在沼氣價值鏈中的上游參與，這是競爭優勢的獨特來源。我們現在專注於將 Archaea 整合到 BP 中並構建重要的開發管道。我們還發現了讓可再生天然氣項目更快上線的機會，我們正在尋找提高垃圾填埋場氣體回收率的方法。這是一項讓我們非常興奮的業務，我們相信它可以比我們想像的更快地提供重要價值。

In biofuels, we aim to materially grow biofuel production volumes to around 100,000 barrels a day by 2030, focused on sustainable aviation fuel or SAF where we aim to be a sector leader. We already produce more than 7,000 barrels per day of biofuels through co-processing, and we aim to triple this by 2030. We also plan to deliver 5 biofuel projects focused on SAF at our Kwinana, Rotterdam, Castellón, Lingen and Cherry Point facilities. We expect these projects to produce around 50,000 barrels a day by 2030. And the BP Bunge Bioenergia joint venture in Brazil, one of the largest bioethanol producers in Brazil, aims to produce around 30,000 barrels per day by 2030 net to BP.

在生物燃料方面，我們的目標是到 2030 年將生物燃料產量大幅增加至每天約 100,000 桶，重點關注可持續航空燃料或 SAF，我們的目標是成為行業領導者。我們已經通過協同處理每天生產 7,000 多桶生物燃料，我們的目標是到 2030 年將這一數字增加兩倍。我們還計劃在我們的 Kwinana、鹿特丹、Castellón、Lingen 和 Cherry Point 工廠交付 5 個以 SAF 為重點的生物燃料項目。我們預計這些項目到 2030 年每天可生產約 50,000 桶。而巴西最大的生物乙醇生產商之一的巴西合資企業 BP Bunge Bioenergia 的目標是到 2030 年每天為 BP 淨生產約 30,000 桶。

In convenience and EV charging, we plan to deliver EBITDA of more than $1.5 billion in 2025, and we aim to deliver more than $4 billion in 2030. We're confident in delivering our strategy. It remains unchanged; and we have, I would say, even deeper conviction in it. First, in the growing convenience sector, our combination of local strategic partnerships and global reach enables us to deliver leading offers for our customers. Second, we have a proven track record of delivering growth. And we have continued to grow convenience gross margin despite a challenging environment.

在便利和電動汽車充電方面，我們計劃在 2025 年實現超過 15 億美元的 EBITDA，我們的目標是在 2030 年實現超過 40 億美元。我們有信心實現我們的戰略。它保持不變；我想說，我們對此有更深的信念。首先，在不斷發展的便利行業，我們將本地戰略合作夥伴關係與全球影響力相結合，使我們能夠為客戶提供領先的服務。其次，我們在實現增長方面有著良好的記錄。儘管環境充滿挑戰，我們仍繼續提高便利毛利率。

Third, EV charging is moving at pace. And we see significant value through our focus on fast charging, with customers using our rapid and ultrafast charging points significantly more than the slower ones. And fourth, major corporations are increasingly demanding decarbonization solutions, driving strong momentum in the fleets business. We're excited about bringing our capabilities and our reach in convenience together with EV charging, enabling us over time to provide customer-focused, lower-carbon transport solutions. And our confidence is underpinned by strong strategic momentum in 2022.

第三，電動汽車充電正在快速發展。我們通過專注於快速充電看到了巨大的價值，使用我們的快速和超快速充電點的客戶明顯多於慢速充電點。第四，大公司對脫碳解決方案的要求越來越高，推動了車隊業務的強勁勢頭。我們很高興將我們的能力和我們在便利性方面的影響力與 EV 充電結合在一起，使我們能夠隨著時間的推移提供以客戶為中心的低碳交通解決方案。 2022 年強勁的戰略勢頭鞏固了我們的信心。

In convenience, we now have 2,400 strategic convenience sites, with 250 added in 2022. We grew our highly profitable loyalty customer base by more than 5% versus '21. And we are particularly excited about our progress in the United States. For example, Thorntons has integrated well and delivered a record convenience gross margin in 2022. In EV charging, we now have 22,000 charge points. And almost all charge points that we roll out now are rapid or ultrafast. We sold 2.5x more electrons year-on-year, supported by increasing power utilization which is now approaching double digits. And in fleets, we are building scale, recently announcing our nationwide collaboration plans with Hertz in the U.S.

在便利方面，我們現在擁有 2,400 個戰略便利站點，2022 年將增加 250 個。與 21 年相比，我們的高利潤忠誠度客戶群增長了 5% 以上。我們對我們在美國取得的進展感到特別興奮。例如，Thorntons 整合良好，並在 2022 年實現了創紀錄的便利毛利率。在電動汽車充電方面，我們現在有 22,000 個充電點。我們現在推出的幾乎所有充電點都是快速或超快速的。我們銷售的電子產品同比增長 2.5 倍，這得益於電力利用率的提高，目前已接近兩位數。在車隊方面，我們正在擴大規模，最近宣布了我們與赫茲在美國的全國合作計劃。

Moving to hydrogen and renewables and power. This is about establishing this decade the foundations of a material business for the following decades to come. We expect to invest up to $30 billion by 2030 while remaining flexible in our capital allocation as markets evolve and with a focus on returns. Through this, we aim to deliver EBITDA of $2 billion to $3 billion by 2030, ramping up thereafter in the 2030s and beyond.

轉向氫能、可再生能源和電力。這是關於在這十年內為未來幾十年的物質業務奠定基礎。我們預計到 2030 年將投資高達 300 億美元，同時隨著市場的發展保持靈活的資本配置並關注回報。通過這一點，我們的目標是到 2030 年實現 20 億至 30 億美元的 EBITDA，然後在 2030 年代及以後實現增長。

In hydrogen, our ambition is to build a leading position globally. While the market is at an early stage of development, we see customer demand growing rapidly; and regulatory support gaining momentum, as evidenced by the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States. We plan to use our refineries as demand anchors for hydrogen and to scale these up into regional hubs. These hubs will then provide low-carbon energy solutions for customers, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors such as steel. In parallel, as markets evolve, we expect to invest to build global export hubs for hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives. These are in advantaged geographies where we have an established presence. Across all of these focus areas, we will leverage our -- again, our distinctive trading and shipping capabilities.

在氫能方面，我們的目標是在全球建立領先地位。雖然市場處於發展的早期階段，但我們看到客戶需求迅速增長；監管支持勢頭強勁，美國的通貨膨脹法案就證明了這一點。我們計劃將我們的煉油廠用作氫氣的需求錨，並將其擴大為區域中心。然後，這些中心將為客戶提供低碳能源解決方案，特別是在鋼鐵等難以減排的行業。與此同時，隨著市場的發展，我們希望投資建立氫和氫衍生物的全球出口中心。這些位於我們已建立業務的優勢地區。在所有這些重點領域，我們將再次利用我們獨特的貿易和運輸能力。

By 2030, we aim to produce between 0.5 million and 0.7 million tonnes per annum of primarily green hydrogen while selectively pursuing blue hydrogen opportunities where there is regulatory support and CCS access.

到 2030 年，我們的目標是每年生產 50 萬至 70 萬噸主要是綠色氫，同時在有監管支持和 CCS 訪問的情況下有選擇地尋求藍色氫機會。

Turning to renewables and power. Here we are focusing our investment in renewables on opportunities where we can create integration value and enhance returns. We aim to participate in 2 ways: first, focused investment to build out a renewables portfolio in service of green hydrogen; green and e-fuels; EV charging; and power trading, including low-carbon flexible generation. As part of this, we are building a global position in offshore wind enabled by our capabilities in large-scale complex offshore projects. Second, we continue to progress a solar development-and-sell model with Lightsource bp which is self-funding and capable of delivering renewable power rapidly at scale. Taken together, we remain on track to deliver our "50 gigawatts net developed to FID" aim by 2030. Of this, we aim to have around 10 gigawatts net installed capacity largely operated in offshore wind, solar and onshore wind. We also expect to have assets under construction and for Lightsource bp to contribute materially.

轉向可再生能源和電力。在這裡，我們將可再生能源投資的重點放在可以創造整合價值和提高回報的機會上。我們的目標是通過兩種方式參與：首先，集中投資建立綠色氫能服務的可再生能源組合；綠色和電子燃料；電動汽車充電；和電力交易，包括低碳靈活發電。作為其中的一部分，我們正在利用我們在大型複雜海上項目中的能力在海上風電領域建立全球地位。其次，我們繼續推進與 Lightsource bp 的太陽能開發和銷售模式，該模式自籌資金並能夠大規模快速提供可再生能源。總而言之，我們仍有望在 2030 年之前實現“50 吉瓦淨開發至 FID”的目標。其中，我們的目標是擁有約 10 吉瓦的淨裝機容量，主要用於海上風能、太陽能和陸上風能。我們還希望擁有正在建設中的資產，並為 Lightsource bp 做出重大貢獻。

And finally, we have brought power trading into the renewables growth engine. This reflects our focus on creating value through integration across our own portfolio as well as the opportunity to help customers decarbonize their power needs as grids and our own supply decarbonizes.

最後，我們將電力交易納入可再生能源增長引擎。這反映了我們專注於通過整合我們自己的產品組合來創造價值，以及在電網和我們自己的供應脫碳時幫助客戶實現電力需求脫碳的機會。

And we're in action, looking back over the past 12 months. We have made significant progress in hydrogen and renewables. We now have a pipeline of hydrogen projects in concept development totaling 1.8 million tonnes per annum net to BP, and we would expect to double that by the end of this year. We're also progressing customer acquisition and have an unrisked customer hopper of around 10 million tonnes per annum. Our renewables pipeline increased by 14 gigawatts in 2022 to 37 gigawatts through offshore wind, Lightsource bp and hydrogen-linked renewables in Australia.

我們正在行動，回顧過去 12 個月。我們在氫能和可再生能源方面取得了重大進展。我們現在有一系列概念開發中的氫氣項目，每年向 BP 淨輸送 180 萬噸氫氣，我們預計到今年年底將這一數字翻一番。我們還在推進客戶獲取，每年有大約 1000 萬噸的無風險客戶漏斗。到 2022 年，我們的可再生能源管道通過海上風電、Lightsource bp 和澳大利亞的氫相關可再生能源增加了 14 吉瓦，達到 37 吉瓦。

As this slide shows, our portfolio is global. It's focused in 4 regions with cost-advantaged renewable resources, policy or government support where we have an established presence and where we can leverage again our distinctive trading and shipping and integration capabilities. To summarize, we are excited about the portfolio we are building. We have distinctive capabilities to succeed, we believe. And we see huge opportunity to enhance returns by integrating across renewables, hydrogen, e-fuels and e-mobility.

正如這張幻燈片所示，我們的產品組合是全球性的。它集中在 4 個具有成本優勢的可再生資源、政策或政府支持的地區，在這些地區我們已經建立了業務，並且我們可以再次利用我們獨特的貿易、運輸和整合能力。總而言之，我們對正在構建的產品組合感到興奮。我們相信，我們具有成功的獨特能力。我們看到了通過整合可再生能源、氫氣、電子燃料和電動汽車來提高回報的巨大機會。

Turning now to our oil, gas and refining portfolio. Let me start with where our oil and gas production is today. It is around 40% lower versus 2019, including the decision by BP's Board to exit Russia. We remain actively engaged in marketing our Rosneft shareholding and we will update the market as appropriate, but as you have heard me say before, and Murray, our oil and gas strategy is about value, not only volume. And our focus remains on maximizing returns and cash flow, reducing emissions; and is underpinned by a deep and high-quality resource base that allows us to choose the best investments.

現在轉向我們的石油、天然氣和煉油產品組合。讓我從今天的石油和天然氣生產情況開始。與 2019 年相比下降了約 40%，其中包括 BP 董事會退出俄羅斯的決定。我們仍然積極參與營銷我們的 Rosneft 股權，我們將適當更新市場，但正如你之前聽到我和默里所說，我們的石油和天然氣戰略是關於價值，而不僅僅是數量。我們的重點仍然是最大化回報和現金流，減少排放；並以深厚的優質資源基礎為基礎，使我們能夠選擇最佳投資。

Our hopper of resource options enables us to allocate more capital, particularly to short-cycle opportunities, to maximize value, including investing more into BPX and more into the Gulf of Mexico. Having grown production in 2022, we plan to grow underlying production to 2025, adding around 200,000 barrels per day of oil equivalent of high-margin production from 9 major project start-ups, by continuing to manage base decline to between 3% and 5%, by increasing BPX production by 30% to 40% and retaining some assets for longer than previously planned. And our resource base has the potential to sustain underlying production broadly flat to 2030 relative to 2022.

我們豐富的資源選擇使我們能夠分配更多資金，尤其是分配給短週期機會，以實現價值最大化，包括對 BPX 和墨西哥灣進行更多投資。在 2022 年增加產量後，我們計劃將基礎產量增加到 2025 年，通過繼續將基礎下降控制在 3% 至 5% 之間，從 9 個主要項目啟動中增加約 200,000 桶石油當量的高利潤產量，通過將 BPX 產量增加 30% 至 40% 並保留一些資產的時間比先前計劃的更長。我們的資源基礎有可能維持基礎產量到 2030 年與 2022 年基本持平。

A great example is in the Gulf of Mexico, where we expect production to increase to around 400,000 barrels a day by the middle of the decade and average 350,000 barrels per day through the end of the decade. In the second half of the decade, we also have options to progress new hub opportunities, including in offshore Canada, in Brazil, in Mauritania and Senegal, in Australia, the Gulf of Mexico and Indonesia. We also remain focused on high-grading our portfolio and aim to divest around 200,000 barrels a day of oil equivalent of lower-margin assets by 2030, less than previously assumed given the strong progress we have made improving operational reliability and commerciality across our portfolio over the past few years. As a result, our 2030 production aim is now around 2 million barrels a day of oil equivalent after divestments.

一個很好的例子是在墨西哥灣，我們預計到本十年中期產量將增加到每天 400,000 桶左右，到本十年末平均每天增加 350,000 桶。在這十年的下半年，我們還可以選擇發展新的樞紐機會，包括在加拿大近海、巴西、毛里塔尼亞和塞內加爾、澳大利亞、墨西哥灣和印度尼西亞。我們還繼續專注於我們的投資組合的高評級，目標是到 2030 年每天剝離約 200,000 桶石油當量的低利潤資產，考慮到我們在提高整個投資組合的運營可靠性和商業性方面取得的巨大進展，低於之前的假設過去幾年。因此，我們的 2030 年生產目標現在是剝離後每天約 200 萬桶石油當量。

And to maximize value, we intend to maintain investment discipline with hurdle rates of 15% to 20% at $60 per barrel, maintain a balanced portfolio with a broadly equal mix across oil and gas, drive capital productivity through strong execution capability across our subsurface wells and projects organization and sustain cost efficiency and reliability improvements in our operations. Our 2022 performance shows our focus on this, delivering our lowest unit production cost since 2006 and our highest plant reliability on record.

為了實現價值最大化，我們打算維持投資紀律，最低收益率為 15% 至 20%，即每桶 60 美元，維持一個平衡的投資組合，在石油和天然氣領域保持大致平等的組合，通過我們地下油井的強大執行能力來提高資本生產率和項目組織，並在我們的運營中維持成本效率和可靠性改進。我們 2022 年的業績顯示了我們對此的關注，實現了自 2006 年以來最低的單位生產成本和有史以來最高的工廠可靠性。

Turning to refining, 3 things. First, through our business improvement plans, we are continuing to drive greater competitiveness and value from our refineries. We are focused on improving process safety and operational emissions and delivering portfolio performance. Second, as I mentioned earlier, our refineries are a foundation for 2 transition growth engines, namely bioenergy, specifically biofuels and hydrogen. We plan to grow biofuel coprocessing production and deliver 5 projects focused on sustainable aviation fuel. Our existing refining hydrogen demand will be an anchor to build scale through both green and blue hydrogen projects.

談到精煉，三件事。首先，通過我們的業務改進計劃，我們將繼續提高煉油廠的競爭力和價值。我們專注於提高過程安全性和運營排放並提供產品組合性能。其次，正如我之前提到的，我們的煉油廠是兩個轉型增長引擎的基礎，即生物能源，特別是生物燃料和氫。我們計劃發展生物燃料協同加工生產，並交付 5 個專注於可持續航空燃料的項目。我們現有的精煉氫需求將成為通過綠色和藍色氫項目擴大規模的基礎。

And third, we will continue to invest to digitize and modernize the systems and back office of our refining business, as we have in the upstream over the past decade. This is expected to drive higher reliability, more efficient work; and eliminate substantial waste in the system. The combination of an increasingly competitive refining portfolio and the opportunities we see to convert or consolidate refineries to deliver our biofuels and hydrogen strategies means that we plan to retain our current refining footprint and throughput at around current levels.

第三，我們將繼續投資，使煉油業務的系統和後台實現數字化和現代化，就像過去十年我們在上游所做的那樣。這有望推動更高的可靠性、更高效的工作；並消除系統中的大量浪費。競爭日益激烈的煉油組合與我們看到的轉換或整合煉油廠以提供我們的生物燃料和氫戰略的機會相結合，意味著我們計劃將我們目前的煉油足跡和吞吐量保持在當前水平左右。

So what does this mean in terms of our pathway to net zero? In short, our destination is unchanged with a triple net zero ambition across operations, production and sales by 2050 or sooner. Since we laid out our aims in 2020, we have enhanced our net zero ambition. We have increased aim 1 to 50% in 2030. We have increased aim 3 to 15% to 20% in 2030 and net zero by 2050, as well as expanding the scope of aim 3 to include physically traded energy projects -- products.

那麼，就我們實現淨零排放的途徑而言，這意味著什麼呢？簡而言之，我們的目標沒有改變，到 2050 年或更早實現運營、生產和銷售的三重淨零目標。自從我們在 2020 年制定目標以來，我們提高了淨零目標。我們已將目標 1 增加到 2030 年的 50%。我們已將目標 3 增加到 2030 年的 15% 到 20%，到 2050 年實現淨零，並擴大了目標 3 的範圍以包括實物交易的能源項目——產品。

As we lean further into our strategy, we have updated our goals for aim 5, now aligned with our transition growth engines for '25 and 2030. We expect to invest more than 40% or $6 billion to $8 billion of our capital expenditure in transition growth engines in 2025, up from 3% in 2019, and around 50% in 2030 or about $7 billion to $9 billion. We have updated our pathway for aim 2, our net zero production aim. We are now targeting 10% to 15% reduction by 2025 and aiming for 20% to 30% reduction by 2030. We continue to believe that our ambition and aims taken together are consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

隨著我們進一步深入我們的戰略，我們更新了目標 5 的目標，現在與我們 25 年和 2030 年的轉型增長引擎保持一致。我們預計將超過 40% 或 60 億至 80 億美元的資本支出用於轉型2025 年的增長引擎，從 2019 年的 3% 上升到 2030 年的 50% 左右，即約 70 億至 90 億美元。我們更新了目標 2 的路徑，即我們的淨零生產目標。我們現在的目標是到 2025 年減少 10% 到 15%，到 2030 年減少 20% 到 30%。我們仍然相信，我們的雄心壯志和共同目標與《巴黎協定》的目標一致。

In summary, our transformation is gaining momentum, some of the key elements of which are on this slide. We're turning planning into delivery; turning data on PowerPoints into shovels in the ground, being the good farmer that I am. And that's what performing while transforming is all about. It's what people want to see. They want to see delivery, delivery, delivery. We're making strong progress towards delivering our 2025 targets and our 2030 aims, and we're leaning in.

總而言之，我們的轉型正在蓄勢待發，其中一些關鍵要素已在這張幻燈片上展示。我們正在將計劃轉化為交付；將 PowerPoint 上的數據變成地裡的鏟子，成為我這樣的好農夫。這就是轉型時表演的意義所在。這是人們希望看到的。他們希望看到交付、交付、交付。我們在實現 2025 年目標和 2030 年目標方面取得了重大進展，並且我們正在向前邁進。

And with that, importantly, Murray will now take you through our financial framework that underpins this.

因此，重要的是，默里現在將帶您了解支撐這一點的我們的財務框架。

Murray?

默里？

Great, thanks, Bernard. Shovels, not PowerPoints. That one will live for a while, won't it?

太好了，謝謝，伯納德。鏟子，不是 PowerPoint。那個人會活一段時間，不是嗎？

It's a good one, right? It's a good one.

這是一個很好的，對吧？這是一個很好的。

It's a good one.

這是一個很好的。

As you've heard, we see the potential to advance the delivery of our strategy and then create additional value by investing, in average, up to $2 billion per annum, more than previously planned, through 2030. Compared to our previous plan, we expect to invest more on resilient hydrocarbons, in oil and gas and bioenergy. We also to -- expect to invest more in convenience and mobility, in convenience and EV charging. And we're focusing our capital expenditure on hydrogen and renewables, power; planning to reallocate around $10 billion across the decade towards bioenergy and convenience and EV charging.

正如您所聽到的，我們看到了推進戰略實施的潛力，然後通過平均每年投資高達 20 億美元，比之前計劃的多，到 2030 年創造額外價值。與我們之前的計劃相比，我們期望對有彈性的碳氫化合物、石油和天然氣以及生物能源進行更多投資。我們還希望在便利性和移動性、便利性和 EV 充電方面進行更多投資。我們將資本支出集中在氫能和可再生能源、電力上；計劃在未來十年內重新分配約 100 億美元用於生物能源、便利設施和電動汽車充電。

In aggregate, we now expect annual capital investment, including inorganics, to be in the range of $14 billion to $18 billion through 2030. For 2023, reflecting our expectation of a supportive price environment, we plan to invest between $16 billion and $18 billion. And we retain significant flexibility in our investment plans. In a lower price environment, we anticipate managing shorter-cycle investment, particularly in hydrocarbons, to maintain a resilient cash balance point of around $40 per barrel Brent, $11 RMM and $3 Henry Hub.

總體而言，我們現在預計到 2030 年，包括無機物在內的年度資本投資將在 140 億美元至 180 億美元之間。到 2023 年，我們計劃投資 160 億美元至 180 億美元，以反映我們對有利價格環境的預期。我們在投資計劃中保留了很大的靈活性。在較低的價格環境中，我們預計管理較短週期的投資，特別是在碳氫化合物方面，以維持每桶 40 美元布倫特原油、11 美元 RMM 和 3 美元亨利港的彈性現金平衡點。

Turning to EBITDA. These changes to our capital investment plans underpin an uplift of $5 billion to $6 billion to our 2030 EBITDA aim. As a result and together with our revised price assumptions, our 2025 EBITDA target increases to $46 billion to $49 billion, and our 2030 EBITDA aim to $51 million to $56 billion. And as Bernard outlined, within this, we now expect our transition growth engines to contribute $10 billion to $12 billion of EBITDA in 2030.

轉向 EBITDA。我們資本投資計劃的這些變化支持將我們的 2030 年 EBITDA 目標提高 50 億至 60 億美元。因此，加上我們修改後的價格假設，我們的 2025 年 EBITDA 目標增加到 460 億美元至 490 億美元，我們的 2030 年 EBITDA 目標增加到 5100 萬至 560 億美元。正如 Bernard 概述的那樣，在此範圍內，我們現在預計我們的轉型增長引擎將在 2030 年貢獻 100 億至 120 億美元的 EBITDA。

Our $46 billion to $49 billion 2025 EBITDA target is underpinned by the strong and highly visible operational momentum we see ahead of us. In our transition growth engines, by 2025, we expect an 80% increase in our biofuel volumes, a -- and around a 30,000 barrel oil equivalent per day increase in biogas supply, a 25% increase in the number of strategic convenience sites and around a doubling of EV charge points. In oil and gas, by 2025, we expect an incremental 200,000 barrels per day of high-margin production; an increase of 30% to 40% in production from BPX Energy; and more than a 30% increase in LNG supply to around 25 million tonnes per annum from Coral, Venture, Mauritania and Senegal, Tangguh and the return of Freeport.

我們 460 億至 490 億美元的 2025 年 EBITDA 目標得到了我們看到的強勁且高度可見的運營勢頭的支持。在我們的轉型增長引擎中，到 2025 年，我們預計我們的生物燃料量將增加 80%，沼氣供應每天增加約 30,000 桶油當量，戰略便利地點的數量增加 25% 以及大約電動汽車充電點增加一倍。在石油和天然氣方面，我們預計到 2025 年，每天將增加 200,000 桶的高利潤產量； BPX Energy 的產量增加了 30% 到 40%； Coral、Venture、毛里塔尼亞和塞內加爾、Tangguh 的液化天然氣供應量增加 30% 以上，達到每年約 2500 萬噸，以及自由港的回歸。

And this strong operational momentum is supported by our continuing focus on cost efficiency and digital. Having completed the largest reorganization in our history, we have delivered on our target of $3 billion to $4 billion of pretax cash cost savings by 2023, relative to 2019, around a year ahead of schedule. Looking ahead, we are working hard to extend the progress we've made in deploying digital and standardization in the upstream to the broader group. This will take time, but we continue to see a substantial opportunity to drive savings which absorb inflation and provide the space for us to profitably expand our transition growth engines.

這種強勁的運營勢頭得到了我們對成本效率和數字化的持續關注的支持。完成我們歷史上最大的重組後，我們已經實現了到 2023 年比 2019 年節省 30 億至 40 億美元的稅前現金成本的目標，比原計劃提前了大約一年。展望未來，我們正在努力將我們在上游部署數字化和標準化方面取得的進展擴展到更廣泛的集團。這需要時間，但我們繼續看到大量機會來推動儲蓄，從而吸收通貨膨脹並為我們提供空間以盈利地擴大我們的轉型增長引擎。

As we deliver our business plan, we remain focused on a disciplined delivery of our financial frame. Our first priority remains a resilient dividend accommodated within a balance point of $40 per barrel Brent, $11 RMM and $3 Henry Hub, now defined on a point-forward basis. We see capacity for an annual increase in the dividend per ordinary share of around 4% per annum at $60 per barrel, subject to the Board's discretion.

在我們交付業務計劃時，我們仍然專注於有紀律地交付我們的財務框架。我們的首要任務仍然是在每桶布倫特原油 40 美元、RMM 11 美元和亨利港 3 美元的平衡點內提供有彈性的股息，現在是按點遠期定義的。根據董事會的決定，我們認為每股普通股股息每年增加約 4%，達到每桶 60 美元。

Second, maintaining a strong investment-grade credit rating. For 2023, we intend to continue to allocate 40% of surplus cash flow to further strengthen the balance sheet and now target further progress within an A-grade credit rating. Third and fourth, we plan to invest with discipline in our transition growth engines; and in our oil, gas and refining businesses. And finally, share buybacks: We are committed to allocating 60% of 2023 surplus cash flow to buybacks and expect a buyback of $4 billion per annum at around $60 per barrel, at the lower end of our capital range and subject to maintaining a strong investment-grade credit rating.

二是維持較高的投資級信用評級。到 2023 年，我們打算繼續分配 40% 的盈餘現金流以進一步加強資產負債表，現在的目標是在 A 級信用評級內取得進一步進展。第三和第四，我們計劃有紀律地投資於我們的轉型增長引擎；以及我們的石油、天然氣和煉油業務。最後，股票回購：我們承諾將 2023 年盈餘現金流的 60% 用於回購，並預計每年回購 40 億美元，價格約為每桶 60 美元，處於我們資本範圍的低端，並且需要保持強勁的投資級信用評級。

Taken together, we believe this business plan and financial frame delivers for shareholders today. It offers, first, double-digit per share growth. We now expect to deliver an EBITDA per share CAGR of over 12% between 2H '19, 1H '20 and 2025 at $70 per barrel 2021 real. Second, competitive returns. We have increased our ROACE target and now expect to achieve over 18% both in 2025 and 2030 at $70 per barrel 2021 real. Third, debt reduction through our intention to allocate a proportion of surplus cash flow to strengthening our balance sheet; and fourth, compelling shareholder distributions through our resilient and growing dividend and with leverage to higher prices through our share buyback commitment.

總而言之，我們相信這一商業計劃和財務框架今天能為股東帶來好處。首先，它提供兩位數的每股增長。我們現在預計，在 2019 年 2 月、20 年 1 月和 2025 年之間，每股 EBITDA 複合年增長率將超過 12%，2021 年實際為每桶 70 美元。第二，有競爭力的回報。我們已經提高了我們的 ROACE 目標，現在預計在 2025 年和 2030 年實現 18% 以上的增長，2021 年實際價格為每桶 70 美元。第三，通過我們打算分配一部分盈餘現金流來加強我們的資產負債表來減少債務；第四，通過我們富有彈性且不斷增長的股息以及通過我們的股票回購承諾來提高價格的槓桿作用來吸引股東分配。

Let me now hand back to Bernard to conclude today's presentation.

現在請伯納德結束今天的演講。

Great, thanks, Murray.

太好了，謝謝，默里。

As we come to a close, at least in the presentation, before we go to Q&A. What excites me maybe the most and gives me the confidence in our ability to deliver on our growth plans is what I think is the world-class -- a world-class BP team. We're building capabilities and skills. We're leveraging deep experience within and we're attracting new talent from a broad range of sectors. We're becoming more diverse, making tangible progress on both female and minority representation across our organization. Our restructuring and our change is behind us. We only have one focus. That's on delivery. And finally, and people ask me about this, our transformation is inspiring our people and others who want to join us. Pride in working for BP is at an all-time high. And staff confidence in our future is at the highest point since we started surveying over a decade ago.

當我們接近尾聲時，至少在演示中，在我們進行問答之前。也許最讓我興奮並讓我對我們實現增長計劃的能力充滿信心的是我認為世界一流的 - 世界一流的 BP 團隊。我們正在培養能力和技能。我們正在利用內部的豐富經驗，並從廣泛的領域吸引新的人才。我們正變得更加多元化，在整個組織的女性和少數族裔代表方面取得了切實進展。我們的重組和變革已經過去。我們只有一個重點。那是送貨上門最後，人們問我這個問題，我們的轉型正在激勵我們的員工和其他想加入我們的人。為 BP 工作的自豪感空前高漲。自十多年前我們開始調查以來，員工對我們未來的信心達到了最高點。

So let me wrap up. First, I hope you will agree that our results show that BP is performing while transforming. Second, we have the right strategy. And today, we're leaning further in, helping give society the energy it needs and materially growing EBITDA at the same time. And third, crucially, we are delivering for our shareholders, executing against our disciplined financial frame, growing our resilient dividend and delivering a material share buyback program. This all comes together, as you can see on this slide, in what we believe is a compelling investor proposition to grow long-term shareholder value.

所以讓我總結一下。首先，我希望您同意我們的結果表明 BP 在轉型的同時表現出色。第二，我們有正確的策略。而今天，我們正在進一步傾斜，幫助為社會提供所需的能量，同時實質性地增加 EBITDA。第三，至關重要的是，我們正在為我們的股東提供服務，根據我們紀律嚴明的財務框架執行，增加我們有彈性的股息並提供實質性的股票回購計劃。正如您在這張幻燈片中看到的那樣，這一切匯集在一起，我們認為這是一個令人信服的投資者提議，可以增加長期股東價值。

Thanks very much for your patience and for listening and for watching the video. And members of the team will now join me on stage, and we'll be delighted -- guys, come on up, game time. We'll be delighted to take your questions, starting in the room probably. And then we'll go to -- on the lines.

非常感謝您的耐心等待以及收聽和觀看視頻。團隊成員現在將和我一起上台，我們會很高興——伙計們，上來，比賽時間。我們很樂意回答您的問題，可能從會議室開始。然後我們將繼續--在線。

So I think everybody knows everybody. Emma is here. So we've got Anja, Emma, Gordon, Carol. And you've met Murray.

所以我認為每個人都認識每個人。艾瑪來了所以我們有 Anja、Emma、Gordon 和 Carol。你見過默里。

So let's get going. And we'll start off here in the room and we'll start with Lydia. Why don't we start with Lydia? And then we'll start making our way around. So Lydia, over to you, please -- I'm looking for my notepad...

讓我們開始吧。我們將從這裡開始，我們將從莉迪亞開始。為什麼我們不從莉迪亞開始呢？然後我們將開始繞行。 Lydia，請交給你——我在找我的記事本……

It's Lydia Rainforth from Barclays. So 2 questions, if I could. The first one is on the change around the upstream production side. Previously they have been described as low-margin barrels. Can you just talk us through what's happened to that margin now and why you want to keep them and whether that made you feel uncomfortable with (inaudible) scope 2 -- or the aim 2 goal.

我是巴克萊銀行的 Lydia Rainforth。所以 2 個問題，如果可以的話。第一個是圍繞上游生產端的變化。以前，它們被描述為低利潤桶。你能不能告訴我們現在這個利潤率發生了什麼，你為什麼要保留它們，以及這是否讓你對（聽不清）範圍 2 或目標 2 目標感到不舒服。

And then the third one [and for -- maybe for] Anja-Isabel. And Bernard describes you as having brought clarity to the strategy in the renewables part of the business or low carbon part of the business. Can you talk through what you found; what you've changed; and then perhaps linked to that, just how you, Carol and Emma all work together in terms of some of that trading business being quite clear?

然後是第三個 [以及 - 可能是] Anja-Isabel。 Bernard 將您描述為使業務的可再生能源部分或業務的低碳部分的戰略變得清晰。你能談談你的發現嗎？你改變了什麼；然後也許與此相關聯的是，您、Carol 和 Emma 是如何在某些交易業務方面一起工作的，這一點非常清楚？

Fantastic, great. Lydia. Thank you. Gordon, why are you keeping these assets longer?

太棒了，太棒了。莉迪亞。謝謝。戈登，你為什麼要更長時間地保留這些資產？

Yes, thank you for the question, Lydia. I think, over the last couple of years, there's really 2 things [that are apparent and does] gives us huge confidence to keep these barrels. Number one is just the operational improvement. We've improved reliability on our assets. We continue to drive down unit costs. We continue to drive capital productivity in our wells -- in the wells area. We've deployed new technology. Ocean bottom seismic now is being deployed widely across our portfolio, giving a better view of the barrels that remain. And then finally, I would say commerciality, if you look at what we've done, say, in Azule Energy. We've brought together 2 very mature sets of assets with our friends at Eni; brought them together into a company now called Azule that's doing over 200,000 barrels per day, has 3 major projects coming towards it, has huge growth potential actually. So London -- Aker BP and [London energy] will be another example of where we've added -- through commerciality, we've added value. So that gives us lots of confidence of, staying inside our portfolio, we can continue to add value to these barrels.

是的，謝謝你的問題，莉迪亞。我認為，在過去的幾年裡，確實有兩件事 [很明顯並且確實] 給了我們巨大的信心來保留這些桶。第一隻是運營改進。我們提高了資產的可靠性。我們繼續降低單位成本。我們繼續提高我們油井的資本生產率——在油井區域。我們部署了新技術。海底地震現在正在我們的產品組合中廣泛部署，可以更好地了解剩餘的桶。最後，我想說商業性，如果你看看我們在 Azule Energy 所做的事情。我們與我們在 Eni 的朋友匯集了 2 套非常成熟的資產；將他們聚集到一家現在稱為 Azule 的公司，該公司每天生產超過 200,000 桶，有 3 個主要項目正在推進，實際上具有巨大的增長潛力。所以倫敦——Aker BP 和 [London energy] 將是我們增加的另一個例子——通過商業性，我們增加了價值。因此，這給了我們很大的信心，留在我們的投資組合中，我們可以繼續為這些桶增加價值。

Thank you, Gordon. And well done on the reliability for last year, even better than when I was in charge of the upstream, so -- but anyway, Anja or Anja-Isabel, over to you...

謝謝你，戈登。去年在可靠性方面做得很好，甚至比我負責上游時還要好，所以——但無論如何，Anja 或 Anja-Isabel，交給你了……

Anja is fine. Thanks for the question, Lydia. What I found is, first of all, a great foundation to start from. And I'll give you 2 examples: Lightsource bp. It's a 1,000-colleague organization by now, in motion to deliver gigawatts at lowest cost possible, presence in 19 countries, so a very, very important capability for everything we want to do in hydrogen and also in Emma's business, et cetera, et cetera, because renewables capabilities are absolutely key. Another example is our entry in offshore wind, which I give, let's say, the BP team the credit for. So I inherited a great pipeline to build on. And so my focus really in the last 12 months was 3 things. I mean being even clearer what we want to do in low carbon, what to do and what not to do. So where do we want to play in hydrogen? How do we want to play in hydrogen? And I think Bernard alluded to it. And one important question was also to clarify the role of renewables in BP's portfolio; and I think we have a very, very clear answer to that. It's all about integration value. It's not about just gigawatts. It is about value. And this is a very, I think, unique proposition.

安雅很好。謝謝你的問題，莉迪亞。首先，我發現的是一個很好的起點。我會給你 2 個例子：Lightsource bp。到目前為止，它是一個擁有 1,000 名員工的組織，致力於以盡可能低的成本提供千兆瓦，在 19 個國家/地區開展業務，因此對於我們在氫氣以及 Emma 的業務等方面想要做的一切來說，這是一個非常非常重要的能力，因為可再生能源能力絕對是關鍵。另一個例子是我們進入海上風電領域，我認為這是 BP 團隊的功勞。所以我繼承了一個偉大的管道來構建。因此，在過去的 12 個月裡，我真正關注的是三件事。我的意思是更清楚我們想在低碳方面做什麼，什麼該做，什麼不該做。那麼我們想在哪裡玩氫呢？我們想如何玩氫？我認為伯納德暗示過這一點。一個重要的問題是闡明可再生能源在 BP 投資組合中的作用；我認為我們對此有一個非常非常明確的答案。這一切都與集成價值有關。這不僅僅是千兆瓦。這是關於價值的。我認為這是一個非常獨特的提議。

The second thing I focused on was building the delivery muscle. We stood up 2 new operating models, organizations focused on hydrogen and offshore wind. And we are fine-tuning as we speak but up and running, and we brought external talent in. And the third is really growing the pipeline. And I think you've seen the numbers literally from very, very little to a very material pipeline in hydrogen; and a very, very good pipeline in renewables. And of course, development of the projects, maturing the projects. And then the steering model behind it because these businesses are distinctively different to oil and gas and that they need a different steering model. So this was what I did in the last 12 months.

我關注的第二件事是建立交付肌肉。我們建立了 2 種新的運營模式，組織專注於氫能和海上風能。我們在說話時正在微調，但正在運行，我們引進了外部人才。第三個是真正在增加管道。而且我認為您已經從字面上看到了從非常非常少到非常重要的氫氣管道的數字；以及一條非常非常好的可再生能源管道。當然，還有項目的開發，項目的成熟。然後是它背後的轉向模式，因為這些業務與石油和天然氣截然不同，它們需要不同的轉向模式。所以這就是我在過去 12 個月裡所做的。

Brilliant. It's fantastic having Anja here. And there was a question about how you and Emma and Carol works together. Emma, Carol, any one of you want to say how you bring it all together?

傑出的。 Anja 在這裡真是太棒了。還有一個問題是關於你和 Emma 以及 Carol 是如何一起工作的。 Emma、Carol，你們中的任何一個人想說說你們是如何將它們結合在一起的？

Seamlessly.

無縫地。

Seamlessly, okay, good answer. We'll take it as a short answer. Lucas? Thank you, Lydia.

無縫，好的，好的答案。我們將把它作為一個簡短的回答。盧卡斯？謝謝你，莉迪亞。

So Lucas Herrmann of Exane BNP. A couple as well, if I might. And perhaps the first ties in with one of Lydia's. So 15% to 20% -- it's an obvious allocation question, 15% to 20% return in hydrocarbons; greater than 15%, biogas; greater than 15%, electrification or EV; 10% or so in hydrogen; and 6% to 8% unlevered in renewable. So explain to me or [just try talking to me] the 6% to 8% in renewable in that they're electrons. They're a commodity. You can buy them in, so why allocate in that direction? That's the first question.

所以 Exane BNP 的 Lucas Herrmann。如果可以的話，還有一對。也許第一個關係與莉迪亞的一個有關。所以 15% 到 20%——這是一個明顯的分配問題，15% 到 20% 的碳氫化合物回報率；大於 15%，沼氣；大於 15%，電氣化或電動汽車；氫氣10%左右； 6% 到 8% 的可再生能源是無槓桿的。所以向我解釋或 [試著和我談談] 可再生能源中的 6% 到 8% 因為它們是電子。他們是一種商品。你可以買進去，為什麼要往那個方向分配呢？這是第一個問題。

And the second is to Murray and it's just -- and maybe to Carol. And it's how do we think about the LNG optimization trading business in terms of pricing this year. And I asked simply because gas prices globally have clearly come back a long way, but you position a long way forward. So when I think about the profit delta, the price it would imply for the year, what can you tell me to afford me comfort that what I see on the screen today, TTF and BP, JKM, relative to last year, is not something [that would necessarily affect], volume aside, Murray, for the gas and power -- or the gas and low emission business? I hope that was clear.

第二個是給 Murray 的，它只是——也許是給 Carol 的。這就是我們今年在定價方面如何看待液化天然氣優化交易業務。我問這個問題只是因為全球天然氣價格顯然已經回升了很長一段路，但你的定位很長。因此，當我考慮利潤增量時，它意味著今年的價格，你能告訴我什麼讓我感到安慰，我今天在屏幕上看到的 TTF 和 BP，JKM，相對於去年，不是什麼東西[這必然會影響]，默里，天然氣和電力或天然氣和低排放業務的數量？我希望這是清楚的。

Possibly to people who understand the market well, which is Carol, so Carol, I'm going to ask you to lead off on that. Murray can add if he wishes to, but Carol, go for it. And Anja, we'll ask you to take the 6% to 8% question, please. Go ahead, Carol.

可能是對那些非常了解市場的人來說，那就是卡羅爾，所以卡羅爾，我要請你帶頭。如果 Murray 願意，可以添加，但 Carol，請繼續。 Anja，請回答 6% 到 8% 的問題。去吧，卡羅爾。

So yes, we have seen, as you said, a reduction in prices since last year, but I think there are also -- when you look at the fundamentals of the market, there's potentially still tightness going forward when you look at growing demand; China coming back in, for example; East unlocking. We did lose a lot of demand through winter, warm winter. That's something that we'll continue to watch going forward, so I think we're looking at the supply-demand balances. We're looking at all of the factors. They're not all necessarily bearish, I'll just say, on that perspective. And we have a portfolio which we've created around optionality. So that's pricing centers. It's demand centers. It's volume. It's flexibility. And our job is to monetize that for BP. And I think the team have done a great job of doing that over multiple years, over multiple market conditions, but I'm sure Murray can give us the right nomenclature for the performance.

所以是的，正如你所說，我們已經看到自去年以來價格有所下降，但我認為也有——當你審視市場的基本面時，當你審視不斷增長的需求時，未來可能還會出現供應緊張；例如，中國回來了；東解鎖。整個冬天，溫暖的冬天，我們確實失去了很多需求。這是我們將繼續關注的事情，所以我認為我們正在關注供需平衡。我們正在考慮所有因素。從這個角度來看，他們不一定都看跌，我只想說。我們有一個圍繞可選性創建的投資組合。這就是定價中心。它是需求中心。是音量。這是靈活性。我們的工作是為 BP 將其貨幣化。而且我認為團隊多年來在多種市場條件下都做得很好，但我相信穆雷可以為我們的表現提供正確的命名法。

You guys have performed tremendously, to add any word in. Lucas, it's not about high price, low price. It's about volatility. And there's not an awful lot of supply out there right now, so that suggests volatility. So we look to Carol's organization to manage that volatility, and I think there's -- they continue to be well positioned to do that.

你們表現得非常出色，添加任何詞。盧卡斯，這不是高價，低價。這是關於波動性。而且現在沒有太多的供應，所以這表明存在波動。因此，我們期待 Carol 的組織來管理這種波動，我認為他們仍然有能力做到這一點。

And I think the -- a lot of the contracts and supply that we're bringing on in the coming years, importantly, were deals that were signed many, many years ago, not in the last year, in the middle of some of the biggest price spikes in history, but many, many years ago. So also a great place as Carol grows from 19 mtpa to 25 mtpa by 2025. So Anja, 6% to 8% returns in renewables and power. Why should we be in it? Why is it an attractive business for BP?

而且我認為 - 我們在未來幾年帶來的很多合同和供應，重要的是，是很多很多年前簽署的交易，而不是去年，在一些中間歷史上最大的價格飆升，但是很多很多年前。到 2025 年，Carol 將從 19 mtpa 增長到 25 mtpa，這也是一個好地方。所以 Anja，可再生能源和電力的回報率為 6% 到 8%。我們為什麼要參與其中？為什麼它對 BP 來說是一項有吸引力的業務？

And I would slightly disagree, if I may, to your statement there's an abundance of green electrons around the world. Actually this is not the case. And we invest, we allocate capital to own renewable assets if we believe this is a critical control point. So if you think about projects like AREH, for example, in Australia, this is largely off-grid renewables. And it's 70% of the total CapEx of the project, so we need a leading-edge capability to deliver the green electrons at the lowest cost of energy. This is absolutely crucial for the success of this business. If you think -- moving to Europe, if you think about how to scale a hydrogen business in Europe, it is all about scaling offshore wind because this is the only scalable technology in Europe which can deliver gigawatts of, let's say, green electricity in service of green hydrogen production. This is why we believe we need to play in offshore wind, because there are regions around the world where this is the only scalable technology. And I think this is how we think about it. If there is -- if there are liquid markets, if there's an abundance of green electrons and we can buy them in a way cheaply -- competitively, we will not deploy capital in renewables, but we believe, definitely for this decade to come, we have to because it is absolutely crucial.

如果可以的話，我有點不同意你的說法，世界上有大量的綠色電子。其實不是這樣的。我們投資，如果我們認為這是一個關鍵控制點，我們就會分配資本來擁有可再生資產。因此，如果您考慮像 AREH 這樣的項目，例如在澳大利亞，這主要是離網可再生能源。它佔項目總資本支出的 70%，因此我們需要領先的能力以最低的能源成本提供綠色電子。這對於這項業務的成功絕對至關重要。如果你想 - 搬到歐洲，如果你考慮如何在歐洲擴大氫能業務，那就是擴大海上風電，因為這是歐洲唯一可以提供千兆瓦的可擴展技術，比方說，綠色電力綠色制氫服務。這就是為什麼我們認為我們需要在海上風電領域發揮作用，因為世界上有些地區這是唯一可擴展的技術。我認為這就是我們的想法。如果有——如果有流動性市場，如果有大量的綠色電子，我們可以以便宜的方式購買它們——具有競爭力，我們不會將資本部署在可再生能源上，但我們相信，絕對是在未來十年，我們必須這樣做，因為這絕對至關重要。

Great, thank you, Anja. Thank you, Carol. Os? And then we'll keep going.

太好了，謝謝你，安雅。謝謝你，卡羅爾。操作系統？然後我們會繼續前進。

Just back on the return on average capital employed numbers, the -- so I think, 2020, we said up to 2% was delivered over the last 20 years. The last 3 years, we've added 4%. As we look out to that 18% in 2025 and beyond, which is a big number, how much is the trading contribution in that, please? And I'd love just to tie that perhaps, Carol or back to Anja, and say, do you believe that, trading electrons, you can trade and add value here, I think, coming from your old company? And others, utilities, tend to say it's not quite possible, so I'd love you to square that circle, please. And then secondly -- sorry. Your deepening or higher conviction on EV and convenience, to Emma, but can you help us a little bit more on pricing across fleets, Hertz, Scottish police force, [Uber London]? I mean, how much of that is helping get to 15% returns in that business? And even some of the trucking that you're doing in Germany. Is there an array of pricing here that's helping?

回到平均資本使用數字的回報率，我認為，到 2020 年，我們說在過去 20 年中交付了高達 2%。過去 3 年，我們增加了 4%。當我們展望 2025 年及以後的 18% 時，這是一個很大的數字，請問其中的貿易貢獻是多少？我想把它聯繫起來，卡羅爾或回到安雅，然後說，你相信，交易電子，你可以在這裡交易並增加價值，我想，來自你的老公司？而其他人，公用事業，往往會說這不太可能，所以我希望你能解決這個問題。其次——抱歉。艾瑪，你對電動汽車和便利性的信念越來越深或更高，但你能在車隊、赫茲、蘇格蘭警察部隊、[Uber London] 的定價方面幫助我們多一點嗎？我的意思是，其中有多少有助於該業務獲得 15% 的回報？甚至是您在德國進行的一些卡車運輸。這裡有一系列有用的定價嗎？

Thank you, Oswald. Let's start off. Murray, 18%, how much includes trading? Anja, trading electrons, do we make money? And Carol maybe wants to add, together both of you guys. And Emma. So Murray?

謝謝你，奧斯瓦爾德。讓我們開始吧。 Murray, 18%, 多少包括交易？ Anja，電子交易，我們賺錢嗎？ Carol 可能想補充一點，你們兩個。還有艾瑪。那麼穆雷？

Yes, I don't think I'll guide on what's trading as a component of the 18%, Os. That would be a little bit tricky for Carol moving forward, but I will say that Carol has had a stunning track record over the last 3 years, 4% on average ROACE for the group, so you can calculate the numbers now, I'm sure. And Carol has a growing portfolio ahead of her with Archaea in biogas, with LNG expanding. And I think the profitability of trading will really depend on a few things: first, continuing volatility. Those continuing volatility happen, as per Lucas's question. Second, can we continue to manage gross margin competition? Because it's a competitive space. And can we continue to do a good job? So far, so good. And I think I'd put my confidence in Carol and her team. And then we have growing LNG, so as Lucas says, it's volume, not price, but again it's volatility. So I think I'm not going to guide on it, but certainly we have a fabulous capability here in place. And I'm confident Carol and her organization will do just fine.

是的，我不認為我會指導交易作為 18% 的組成部分，Os。這對 Carol 的前進來說有點棘手，但我要說的是，Carol 在過去 3 年裡有著驚人的記錄，該集團的平均 ROACE 為 4%，所以你現在可以計算數字了，我是當然。卡羅爾在她之前擁有越來越多的投資組合，包括沼氣領域的 Archaea，以及液化天然氣的擴張。而且我認為交易的盈利能力實際上取決於幾件事：首先，持續的波動。根據盧卡斯的問題，那些持續的波動發生了。第二，我們能否繼續經營毛利率競爭？因為這是一個競爭激烈的領域。我們還能繼續做好嗎？到目前為止，一切都很好。而且我想我會對 Carol 和她的團隊充滿信心。然後我們有越來越多的液化天然氣，正如盧卡斯所說，它是數量，而不是價格，但又是波動性。所以我認為我不會對此進行指導，但我們肯定擁有出色的能力。我相信卡羅爾和她的組織會做得很好。

Thank you. See if Anja and Carol will agree on trading electrons. Who wants to do that one?

謝謝。看看 Anja 和 Carol 是否會同意交易電子產品。誰想做那個？

Do you want to kick it off?

你想開始嗎？

Yes. So I think -- so one of the questions previously was around integration. And we do work very closely across each other. We're looking at power value chains...

是的。所以我認為 - 之前的問題之一是關於整合。我們確實彼此密切合作。我們正在研究電力價值鏈……

Seamlessly.

無縫地。

Seamlessly, fabulously seamlessly. So we think about routes to market. We think about how we want to lock positions in. We think about whether it's corporate, industrial, self-supply. We take trading positions around that. We look at greening of products. And so we won't be giving numbers, but we did have a strong power trading delivery last year. And that is because we've built up this position across assets, corporates, merchant and what we call virtual strategies. That's in the U.S. We're building that in the U.K. and Europe and we're also supporting around the Australian renewable energy hub.

天衣無縫，天衣無縫。所以我們考慮進入市場的途徑。我們考慮我們要如何鎖定位置。我們考慮它是公司的，工業的，自給自足的。我們圍繞這一點進行交易。我們看產品的綠色化。所以我們不會給出數字，但去年我們確實有一個強大的電力交易交付。這是因為我們已經在資產、企業、商家和我們所謂的虛擬戰略中建立了這一地位。那是在美國。我們正在英國和歐洲建設，我們還在澳大利亞可再生能源中心周圍提供支持。

Anything to add?

有什麼要補充的嗎？

Well, it's perfect answers always.

好吧，這總是完美的答案。

What's there to add? Murray, I like this idea of bringing these guys up on the stage. I think we should...

有什麼要補充的？默里，我喜歡把這些人帶到舞台上的想法。我認為我們應該...

Makes it easier for you and I, yes.

讓你我更容易，是的。

A little bit easier, yes...

稍微容易一點，是的......

Yes, it does, totally.

是的，確實如此。

Brilliant. And deepening EVs, Emma. Or deepening -- where the return is coming from, pricing and so on?

傑出的。以及深化電動汽車，艾瑪。或者深化——回報來自哪裡，定價等等？

Yes, great. Thanks for the question. So in our EV business, as you know, we have a very focused strategy. We're focused on fleets and we're focused on fast charging on the go. And just to give you a sense of the balance of that: We probably expect about 70% today as we look at our business, 70%, to come from on-the-go fast charging; 30% from fleets. And we've really built capability over the last number of years now, more than 500 people really working on deploying into both of those core focus [segments]. And it's working, so power -- energy sales up 2.5x. Utilization is up in every market where we operate. And it's clear that for the -- on the fast charging side, customers -- in the U.K., where you have a choice between fast and slow, customers choose fast 5x more frequently than slow, so we're really seeing a play into this fast charging on the go. We're investing in this business today, of course. And it will turn earnings positive, some chunky earnings coming from that by 2025, so we're looking forward to that. Fleets, in particular, what I like about fleets is we have a really sizable fleet business today, 170,000 customers around the world. Those customers and corporates have made commitments to decarbonize. And the vectors, energy vectors, they need to decarbonize will be a multitude of energy vectors all the way from biofuels, which is near-term decarbonization, through EV charging and EV charging in trucks. Who would have thought 5 years ago that you'd have a 19-tonne truck that can be run on electricity? And we're playing into that market with some specific investments which we've made in Germany, where the truck -- EV trucks are already taking off. So I think fleets, for us, really offer an opportunity to play into a number of our areas. And we're really looking forward to seeing what this business brings in the next couple of years.

對，很好。謝謝你的問題。因此，如您所知，在我們的電動汽車業務中，我們有一個非常集中的戰略。我們專注於車隊，專注於移動中的快速充電。只是為了讓您了解其中的平衡：當我們審視我們的業務時，我們可能預計今天約有 70%，即 70% 來自移動中的快速充電； 30% 來自車隊。在過去的幾年裡，我們確實建立了能力，超過 500 人真正致力於部署到這兩個核心焦點 [細分市場]。它正在發揮作用，所以電力——能源銷售額增長了 2.5 倍。我們運營的每個市場的利用率都在上升。很明顯，在快速充電方面，英國的客戶可以在快速和慢速之間做出選擇，客戶選擇快速充電的頻率是慢速充電的 5 倍，所以我們真的看到了這一點隨時隨地快速充電。當然，我們今天正在投資這項業務。這將使收益轉為正數，到 2025 年將從中獲得一些可觀的收益，因此我們對此充滿期待。車隊，尤其是車隊，我喜歡車隊的地方是我們今天擁有非常龐大的車隊業務，在全球擁有 170,000 名客戶。這些客戶和企業已做出脫碳承諾。他們需要脫碳的載體、能量載體將是大量的能量載體，從生物燃料，即近期脫碳，到電動汽車充電和卡車電動汽車充電。 5 年前誰會想到您會擁有一輛 19 噸重的電動卡車？我們正在通過在德國進行的一些特定投資進入該市場，那裡的卡車——電動卡車已經起飛。所以我認為艦隊，對我們來說，確實提供了一個進入我們許多領域的機會。我們真的很期待看到這項業務在未來幾年帶來什麼。

Thanks, Emma. Let's go to Irene. And then after that, guys, we'll go to a couple of questions online. So Irene?

謝謝，艾瑪。我們去找艾琳。然後，伙計們，我們將在線回答幾個問題。那麼艾琳？

Irene Himona at Société Générale. And my first question, on the framework. And congratulations on the numbers, first of all. And you have upgraded EBITDA targets very materially, partly because of a -- the increase to your Brent from $60 to $70, but of course, you continue to guide on a 4% dividend increase based on $60 for consistency. But how should we think around that 4%? What does it grow to in your new framework of $70, please? And my second question, back to convenience and mobility: If obviously we are focused on EV charging, can we -- give us some insight on the conventional part of that business? So for example, is Castrol lubricants finally delivering the long-awaited potential that we think it has?

法國興業銀行的 Irene Himona。我的第一個問題是關於框架的。首先祝賀這些數字。而且你已經非常實質性地提高了 EBITDA 目標，部分原因是 - 你的布倫特原油從 60 美元增加到 70 美元，但當然，你繼續指導基於 60 美元的股息增加 4% 以保持一致性。但是我們應該如何看待這 4%？請問，在您的 70 美元新框架中，它會增長到多少？我的第二個問題，回到便利性和機動性：如果我們顯然專注於 EV 充電，我們能否 - 讓我們對該業務的傳統部分有一些了解？因此，例如，嘉實多潤滑油是否最終實現了我們認為它具有的期待已久的潛力？

Great, Irene, thank you. Murray, we'll kick off with you. And then we'll go to Emma on the non-EV charging part of the business.

太好了，艾琳，謝謝你。默里，我們會和你一起開始。然後我們將在業務的非 EV 充電部分去找 Emma。

Yes. For consistency, we stuck with guidance at $60 to guidance points, $4 billion of buybacks at $60 and the capacity to grow the dividend at 4% per annum at $60. That's what we've chosen to do. If you'd like to figure out what it looks like at 70%, we've got our rules of thumb and they work pretty well. They have worked pretty well over the past 3 years, so I'd just use the rules of thumb to guide you towards $70, but I'm not giving specific guidance with different price decks. Too many things moving around to do that, so we'll just stick with our guidance at $60.

是的。為了保持一致性，我們堅持將指導點定為 60 美元至指導點，將 40 億美元的回購定為 60 美元，並將股息以每年 4% 的速度增長至 60 美元。這就是我們選擇要做的。如果您想弄清楚它在 70% 時的樣子，我們有自己的經驗法則，它們非常有效。它們在過去 3 年中運行良好，因此我只是使用經驗法則來指導您達到 70 美元，但我不會針對不同的價格平台提供具體指導。太多的事情要做到這一點，所以我們將堅持 60 美元的指導。

Great, thank you, Murray. And Emma?

太好了，謝謝你，默里。還有艾瑪？

Yes. Thanks, Irene. As I look at the fuels and Castrol part of the business, so non-EV, non-convenience part of the business, for 2022, a number of headwinds there that we've been working against. So particularly ForEx, cost inflation we saw during 2022; nonetheless, some really bright spots. So aviation record year. Americas did really well, but nonetheless, some of the volume numbers in 2022 are still 8% behind COVID, so I think plenty of recovery is still to come in the base there. And we're seeing some of that, we've seen some of that recovery in some of the businesses, some of the regions come through. And I'll just point out convenience, which is inextricably linked actually to our fuels retail business because most of our convenience today exists on our existing retail network, and some stellar performance there despite tricky trading conditions. So 9% gross margin increase over the last 3 years. And particularly in the Americas...

是的。謝謝，艾琳。當我審視業務的燃料和嘉實多部分時，因此業務的非電動汽車、非便利部分，到 2022 年，我們一直在努力應對一些不利因素。特別是 ForEx，我們在 2022 年看到了成本通脹；儘管如此，還是有一些真正的亮點。所以航空創紀錄的一年。美洲確實做得很好，但儘管如此，2022 年的一些銷量數字仍比 COVID 低 8%，因此我認為那裡的基地仍有大量復甦。我們看到了其中的一些，我們已經看到一些企業的一些復甦，一些地區的複蘇。我只想指出便利性，這實際上與我們的燃料零售業務有著千絲萬縷的聯繫，因為我們今天的大部分便利性都存在於我們現有的零售網絡中，儘管交易條件棘手，但那裡的一些出色表現。因此，過去 3 年的毛利率增長了 9%。尤其是在美洲...

Per annum...

每年...

Per annum, yes. And particularly in the Americas, if I look at ampm, 12 years of sales growth in that franchise; Thorntons, 20% growth in food for now, which is a category -- high-margin category; and even in the U.K., increased sales. In Germany, we've been rolling out a partnership called REWE To Go. We see sales there 1.5x sales on the competitor sites. So I think a lot in the convenience side which is inextricably linked to the fuel, still some recovery to come actually, which is all to play for as we really recover out of COVID. You mentioned Castrol: I think Castrol has seen -- particularly in Castrol business, unprecedented headwinds over the last 3 years. Base oil has affected them, in particular, additive shortages; and ForEx, as I mentioned earlier, but nonetheless -- and we're not yet where we need to be and where we want to be in Castrol, but we do have a new CEO in place in Castrol and a clear plan to get after Castrol's recovery.

每年，是的。特別是在美洲，如果我看一下 ampm，該特許經營權的銷售額增長了 12 年； Thorntons，目前食品增長20%，屬於高利潤品類；甚至在英國，銷售額也有所增長。在德國，我們一直在推出名為 REWE To Go 的合作夥伴關係。我們看到那裡的銷售額是競爭對手網站銷售額的 1.5 倍。因此，我認為很多與燃料密不可分的便利方面，實際上仍有一些恢復，這一切都是為了我們真正從 COVID 中恢復過來。你提到了嘉實多：我認為嘉實多已經看到——尤其是在嘉實多業務中，在過去 3 年中遇到了前所未有的逆風。基礎油對他們造成了影響，尤其是添加劑短缺；和 ForEx，正如我之前提到的，但儘管如此 - 我們還沒有達到我們需要和我們想要在嘉實多的位置，但我們在嘉實多確實有一位新的首席執行官和一個明確的計劃來實現嘉實多的複蘇。

Great, thank you very much, Emma. Let's go to the line. And we go to Michele Della Vigna at Goldman Sachs and then we'll go to Paul Cheng at Scotiabank. So Michele?

太好了，非常感謝你，艾瑪。我們去排隊吧。我們會去高盛的 Michele Della Vigna，然後我們會去 Scotiabank 的 Paul Cheng。那麼米歇爾？

Congratulation on the very strong quarter. 2 questions, if I may. The first one, on LNG. You have one of the best growths in the industry in terms of new supply coming on in 2023 and 2024. And you took a major hedging position in Q3, which looking back, looks very well timed. I was wondering if you could give us an idea of how much of the extra LNG supply has actually been locked in, in terms of pricing for the next 2 years. And related to that, you had a $7 billion working capital build because of that in Q3. I was wondering how much of that actually unwound already in Q4 and how much is still to be expected for the next 2 years.

祝賀這個非常強勁的季度。 2個問題，如果可以的話。第一個，關於液化天然氣。就 2023 年和 2024 年的新供應而言，你們擁有業內最好的增長之一。你們在第三季度採取了主要的對沖頭寸，現在回想起來，看起來時機非常好。我想知道您是否可以讓我們了解在未來 2 年的定價方面實際鎖定了多少額外的液化天然氣供應。與此相關的是，由於第三季度的原因，您擁有 70 億美元的營運資金。我想知道其中有多少實際上已經在第四季度解除，以及未來 2 年預計還有多少。

And then if I can have a second question. And we have a major, new ESG disclosure coming through in Europe this year, which is the EU Green taxonomy. I was just wondering. Out of what you call transition growth engines, which accounts for 25%, 30% of your CapEx now, going to 50% by 2030, how much of that would you say is taxonomy aligned? Because I think that's going to be a major focus out of ESG investors in Europe this year.

然後我可以問第二個問題嗎？今年，我們在歐洲進行了一項重大的新 ESG 披露，即歐盟綠色分類法。我只是想知道。在你所說的轉型增長引擎中，現在佔你資本支出的 25%、30%，到 2030 年將達到 50%，你認為其中有多少是分類一致的？因為我認為這將成為今年歐洲 ESG 投資者的主要關注點。

Michele, thank you. Murray, working capital build/release. And Carol, how much have you hedged and sold forward, all of that good stuff? And I'm going to ask Giulia to comment on the taxonomy. We'll get her a microphone in the room. So Murray?

米歇爾，謝謝你。 Murray，營運資金建立/釋放。卡羅爾，你對沖和遠期賣出了多少，所有這些好東西？我將請 Giulia 對分類法發表評論。我們會在房間裡給她一個麥克風。那麼穆雷？

Yes. So if you go back to 3Q guidance, what we told you is that we expected $7 billion of working capital release from the LNG book as cargoes were delivered, starting in 3Q '23, heavily weighted into '24. That's what we talked about last quarter. This quarter, we've had a $4 billion release in working capital. Some of that did come from that LNG book given the size of the decrease. And so we had about $2 billion of that release in the quarter out of our $4 billion release, so as you look out to third quarter '23 through the second quarter of 2024, we'd expect to see around $5 billion of release as those cargoes get delivered. We don't think it's tremendously price sensitive, but when you have a 50% fall in LNG, a lot happens with the IM and VM that's sitting. And that's why some of that money came back in the fourth quarter. Carol, over to you.

是的。因此，如果你回到第三季度的指導，我們告訴你的是，我們預計從 23 年第三季度開始交付貨物時，液化天然氣賬簿將釋放 70 億美元的營運資金，並在 24 年佔很大比重。這就是我們上個季度談到的內容。本季度，我們釋放了 40 億美元的營運資金。鑑於減少的規模，其中一些確實來自那本液化天然氣賬簿。因此，在我們 40 億美元的發布中，我們在本季度發布了大約 20 億美元，因此當您展望 23 年第三季度至 2024 年第二季度時，我們預計將看到大約 50 億美元的發布，因為那些貨物交付。我們不認為它對價格非常敏感，但是當液化天然氣下降 50% 時，現有的 IM 和 VM 會發生很多事情。這就是部分資金在第四季度返還的原因。卡羅爾，交給你了。

Unfortunately, a short answer. I can't give any guidance on how much we're hedging or the forward sales...

不幸的是，一個簡短的答案。我無法就我們對沖多少或遠期銷售提供任何指導......

Is that because you don't know?

那是因為你不知道嗎？

I know...

我知道...

Slightly sensitive.

有點敏感。

Yes, slightly sensitive, but what I can say is the team has managed the portfolio very well through Q3. We did have below-average performance in Q4. That main driver on that was actually Freeport performance risk, but I don't see any reason why we can't continue to deliver from that portfolio based on the optionality that we have within it going forward. And I'll leave it at that.

是的，有點敏感，但我可以說的是，整個第三季度，團隊都很好地管理了投資組合。我們在第四季度的表現確實低於平均水平。這方面的主要驅動因素實際上是自由港的績效風險，但我看不出有任何理由說明我們不能根據未來的可選性繼續從該投資組合中交付。我會把它留在那裡。

Great, thanks. And Giulia, quickly, on EU taxonomy?

十分感謝。 Giulia，很快，關於歐盟分類法？

Yes, thanks. So thank you, Michele -- I can't see Michele, right?

對了謝謝。謝謝你，米歇爾——我看不到米歇爾，對吧？

We can't either...

我們也不能...

[That's perfect]. Thank you, Michele. Let me start by saying that we actually clearly support the efforts in terms of transparency in the EU economy. And we're looking to see what happens in terms of all of the multiple taxonomies coming together, [SEC, CSRB], the EU taxonomy. We will start disclosing along the EU taxonomy in 2025 based on 2024 data, as required by the [CSRB]. Now if you look into how much of our investment is actually going to be aligned to the taxonomy, we'll be disclosing our investments into transition growth engines until then. And you can assume that, towards 2030, a significant majority of that will be aligned to the taxonomy.

[那很完美]。謝謝你，米歇爾。首先讓我說，我們實際上明確支持歐盟經濟透明度方面的努力。我們希望看到所有多種分類法結合在一起會發生什麼，[SEC，CSRB]，歐盟分類法。根據 [CSRB] 的要求，我們將在 2025 年根據 2024 年的數據開始披露歐盟分類法。現在，如果您查看我們的投資中有多少實際上將與分類法保持一致，我們將在此之前披露我們對轉型增長引擎的投資。你可以假設，到 2030 年，其中絕大部分將與分類法保持一致。

Great. Thank you, Giulia, excellent. Paul Cheng, Scotiabank? And then we'll come back to the room.

偉大的。謝謝你，朱莉婭，太棒了。 Paul Cheng，豐業銀行？然後我們會回到房間。

2 questions, please. What's the assumption -- I think this is for Murray. What's the assumption that -- behind the high end and the low end of your capital range? I mean, what is the parameter behind that? The second one is that -- maybe that is for Bernard. Should -- if we're looking outside your transitioning business on the conventional or legacy oil and gas, should Europe be part of your long-term portfolio given the political environment?

2個問題，請。假設是什麼——我認為這是給 Murray 的。你的資本範圍的高端和低端背後的假設是什麼？我的意思是，它背後的參數是什麼？第二個是——也許是給伯納德的。應該 - 如果我們在傳統或遺留石油和天然氣上尋找您的轉型業務之外，鑑於政治環境，歐洲是否應該成為您長期投資組合的一部分？

Very good, Paul. Thank you. And so Murray, the question, I think, was what would guide you to $14 billion or to an $18 billion. What's the marginal thing to do in there?

很好，保羅。謝謝。所以默里，我認為問題是什麼會引導你達到 140 億美元或 180 億美元。那裡有什麼邊緣的事情要做？

Great, thanks, Paul. I think 2023 is a good way to think about our guidance. Right now the hydrocarbon prices are pretty strong, and as we've said, we expect them to continue to be elevated. Our organic CapEx in 2022, if you look at the fourth quarter, started to tick up probably into the low 14s and -- if you multiply by 4 our quarterly run rate in 4Q. And of course, we've added the Archaea pipeline, which will increase organic CapEx. We're adding more rigs, which will add CapEx, so we're probably at an organic run rate now of $14 billion to $15 billion in 2023. What we've guided is $16 billion to $18 billion and including inorganics. So given the high price environment, given what we're seeing organically, that gives you a sense of what our organic-inorganic split is. And looking forward, we'll be guided by the price range that's out there in the market each year as we think about that $14 billion to $18 billion range. If prices fall back to the $40 level, we'll obviously be at the lower end of the range. As prices remain high, we'll have the flexibility to stay at the upper end of the range. I think that's probably what I'd say, Bernard.

太好了，謝謝，保羅。我認為 2023 年是思考我們指導方針的好方法。目前碳氫化合物價格相當強勁，正如我們所說，我們預計它們將繼續上漲。我們在 2022 年的有機資本支出，如果你看一下第四季度，可能會開始上升到 14s 的低位——如果你乘以 4 我們在第四季度的季度運行率。當然，我們已經添加了 Archaea 管道，這將增加有機資本支出。我們正在增加更多的鑽機，這將增加資本支出，因此到 2023 年，我們現在的有機運行率可能為 140 億美元至 150 億美元。我們指導的是 160 億美元至 180 億美元，包括無機物。因此，考慮到高價格環境，考慮到我們有機地看到的情況，這讓你了解我們的有機-無機分裂是什麼。展望未來，當我們考慮 140 億美元至 180 億美元的範圍時，我們將以每年市場上的價格範圍為指導。如果價格回落至 40 美元水平，我們顯然將處於該範圍的低端。由於價格居高不下，我們可以靈活地保持在該範圍的高端。我想這可能就是我要說的，伯納德。

Great, thank you, Murray. And Paul, on Europe, I mean, I won't collapse and make kind of regional statements in general, other than to say we're returns-driven. Our investments have to make the returns that we've laid out. There are some great opportunities in Europe today. We have a strong oil and gas business in the U.K. North Sea. We have a strong oil and gas business in Norway with Aker BP. We are, I think, the fastest charging -- the largest fast charging provider in Germany today. We're excited about that. We have a new partnership with Ignacio Galán and the Iberdrola team that we're very excited about in Spain around hydrogen and the potential for that, so it's a case-by-case basis, Paul. We look at all countries. We look at ultimately we have to be driven. Our investments are driven by our returns criteria. And there are great opportunities in countries around Europe just like there are great opportunities elsewhere in the world. So let me leave it at that; and come back to the room, to Chris Kuplent, please. And then we'll -- there must be some people over here, but excellent, great. Chris, go ahead.

太好了，謝謝你，默里。保羅，關於歐洲，我的意思是，除了說我們是回報驅動的之外，我不會崩潰並發表一般性的區域聲明。我們的投資必須獲得我們已經設定好的回報。今天的歐洲有一些很好的機會。我們在英國北海擁有強大的石油和天然氣業務。我們與 Aker BP 在挪威擁有強大的石油和天然氣業務。我認為，我們是最快的充電——當今德國最大的快速充電供應商。我們對此感到興奮。我們與 Ignacio Galán 和 Iberdrola 團隊建立了新的合作夥伴關係，我們對西班牙圍繞氫及其潛力感到非常興奮，所以這是個案的基礎，保羅。我們關注所有國家。我們最終會看到我們必須被驅動。我們的投資受我們的回報標準驅動。歐洲各國也有很多機會，就像世界其他地方也有很多機會一樣。所以讓我就此打住；請回到房間，請 Chris Kuplent 發言。然後我們將 - 這裡一定有一些人，但是非常優秀，非常棒。克里斯，繼續。

Chris Kuplent from Bank of America. One under the banner of CapEx discipline. I just wondered whether your hurdle rates in upstream have changed alongside your $60 to $70 move on the real assumptions for pricing. And then if you could: There's quite a big difference between 1.5 million and 2 million barrels per day in 2030, so I just wonder whether you could maybe go ahead talk us through the additional projects that would make up either the stemming of decline or the much lower assumed disposals that are behind this new target.

美國銀行的克里斯·庫普倫特。一個在資本支出紀律的旗幟下。我只是想知道你在上游的門檻率是否隨著你的 60 美元到 70 美元的變動而改變，這是基於真實的定價假設。然後，如果可以的話：到 2030 年，每天 150 萬桶和 200 萬桶之間會有很大的差異，所以我只是想知道您是否可以繼續與我們討論額外的項目，這些項目將彌補下降的趨勢或低於這一新目標的假定處置量要低得多。

And maybe as an -- as a bonus question. What makes you so confident that, with no reduction in your refining footprint and now a much higher oil and gas footprint upstream, your scope 1 and 2 targets can remain unchanged?

也許作為 - 作為獎勵問題。是什麼讓您如此自信，如果您的煉油足跡沒有減少，而現在上游的石油和天然氣足跡要高得多，您的範圍 1 和範圍 2 目標可以保持不變？

Very good, excellent. I'll have Gordon take the scope 1 and 2 question as well. We'll just kick off with Murray, first.

非常好，優秀。我也會讓 Gordon 回答範圍 1 和範圍 2 的問題。我們先從穆雷開始。

On hurdle rates, no change to hurdle rates, Chris.

關於最低要求，Chris，最低要求沒有變化。

Yes, so we go from that then to what are we keeping. Your -- well, let you answer your question, 1.5 million to 2 million. And how are you going to deliver the scope 1 and 2 emissions? Which we have not changed, Chris, as you quite widely pointed out. So over to you, Gordon.

是的，所以我們從那開始到我們保留的東西。你——好吧，讓你回答你的問題，150 萬到 200 萬。您將如何交付範圍 1 和範圍 2 的排放量？正如你廣泛指出的那樣，克里斯，我們沒有改變這一點。交給你了，戈登。

Great question, Chris. Thank you for that. So we have a hopper of opportunities of 18 billion barrels. That's what underpins our plan to 2030. And I have to say the subsurface team, under the leadership of Ariel Flores, have done a fantastic job of articulating these 18 billion barrels numerically and quality-wise much better than I've seen in the past. So 18 billion. We've got 18 billion barrels in there. As we bring forward the opportunities, they have to hit the hurdle rates. And as Murray said, [no hurdle rates]. We've got 5 -- so to create momentum through to 2025, we've got 5 major projects coming on this year, a little bit back-end loaded but 5 major projects that we have confidence, big projects and projects like Tortue Phase 1 in Mauritania and Senegal; projects like Tangguh Phase 3 in Indonesia; projects like Argos, Mad Dog 2, in the Gulf of Mexico. They're going to come on and they're going to bring high-quality barrels with them. Through to 2025, we've got 9, a total 9, major projects coming on stream, so again, creating that momentum through to 2025. And then from '25 to '30, we have a rich opportunity set within that 18 billion barrels, so we can make choices that will continue to offset decline, allow us to sell the 200,000 barrels per day that was mentioned earlier, to end up at 2 million barrels per day by 2030.

好問題，克里斯。謝謝你。因此，我們擁有 180 億桶的機會。這就是我們到 2030 年計劃的基礎。我不得不說，在阿里爾·弗洛雷斯 (Ariel Flores) 的領導下，地下團隊在從數字和質量方面出色地闡明了這 180 億桶的儲量，比我過去看到的要好得多.所以180億。我們那裡有 180 億桶。當我們提出機會時，他們必須達到最低要求。正如默里所說，[沒有門檻]。我們有 5 個——所以為了創造到 2025 年的勢頭，我們今年有 5 個主要項目，有點後端負載，但我們有信心的 5 個主要項目，大項目和像 Tortue Phase 這樣的項目毛里塔尼亞和塞內加爾 1 個；印度尼西亞東固三期等項目；墨西哥灣的 Argos、Mad Dog 2 等項目。他們會來的，他們會帶來高質量的酒桶。到 2025 年，我們有 9 個，總共 9 個重大項目投產，所以再次創造了到 2025 年的勢頭。然後從 25 歲到 30 歲，我們在這 180 億桶石油中擁有豐富的機會，因此我們可以做出將繼續抵消下降的選擇，允許我們出售前面提到的每天 20 萬桶，到 2030 年最終達到每天 200 萬桶。

So I'm very confident that the resources in the ground -- we've got the teams in place to execute. We keep driving capital productivity under Andy Krieger in wells. I'll give you just one example, a fast-pace tieback we're executing right now in the Gulf of Mexico, Thunder Horse expansion. Between Phase 1 of that expansion and Phase 2, we're half the cost -- safely half the costs of a deepwater well. That's just one example of how we're driving productivity. And all these things just give us confidence; the Clair Ridge team doing similar great work subsurface-wise, drilling-wise to develop the giant field west of Shetland more productively, more efficiently. So I'm actually very confident that we've got the resources in the ground. We've got tremendous teams in place to execute, and all we need to do now is execute well through the balance of this decade.

所以我非常有信心，當地的資源——我們已經準備好執行的團隊。在 Andy Krieger 的領導下，我們不斷提高油井的資本生產率。我只舉一個例子，我們現在正在墨西哥灣 Thunder Horse 擴張中執行的快節奏回接。在擴建的第一階段和第二階段之間，我們的成本只有一半——安全地是深水井成本的一半。這只是我們如何提高生產力的一個例子。所有這些都給了我們信心； Clair Ridge 團隊在地下和鑽井方面做著類似的偉大工作，以更高效地開發設得蘭群島以西的巨大油田。所以我實際上非常有信心我們已經掌握了資源。我們擁有龐大的執行團隊，我們現在需要做的就是在這十年的餘下時間裡很好地執行。

Great. And you've kept your scope 1 and 2 targets constant despite having a higher refining throughput and a higher production. How have you done that?

偉大的。儘管精煉吞吐量和產量更高，但您的範圍 1 和範圍 2 目標保持不變。你是怎麼做到的？

It just makes it harder. That's as simple as that. I think the [world], the company, our stakeholders required us to deliver on our (inaudible).

這只會讓事情變得更難。就這麼簡單。我認為 [世界]、公司、我們的利益相關者要求我們兌現我們的（聽不清）。

Give confidence...

給信心...

And I think, look, we've got a track record of delivering 1 million -- roughly 1 million tonnes per annum of sustainable emission reductions just through improving the way we operate. We're now starting to fill the hopper with projects that are slightly longer wavelength, maybe require a bit of capital. We've -- so we've got lots of opportunities here to deliver on that aim 1. It's never easy. You've got to -- while you're operating, you've got to look for emission reduction, but I think that aim 1 is deliverable. I'm confident it's deliverable. And we'll continue to fill the hopper with opportunities through the balance of the decade.

而且我認為，看，我們已經取得了通過改善我們的運營方式每年實現 100 萬 - 大約 100 萬噸可持續減排的記錄。我們現在開始用波長稍長的項目填充料斗，可能需要一些資金。我們已經 - 所以我們在這裡有很多機會來實現這一目標 1。這絕非易事。你必須——當你在運營時，你必須尋求減排，但我認為目標 1 是可以實現的。我相信它是可以交付的。在接下來的十年中，我們將繼續用機會填滿料斗。

And the reality is it's what society needs. And quite frankly, Chris, it's what our people want to deliver. They don't want to see us going back on aim 1, and we control it and we're leaning into it. And we'll find -- it's harder, of course. It's gotten harder, but we're going to deliver it. So thanks for raising that point. We'll go here in the audience.

而事實是，這正是社會所需要的。坦率地說，克里斯，這就是我們的員工想要實現的目標。他們不想看到我們回到目標 1，我們控制了它，我們正朝著它傾斜。我們會發現——當然更難。它變得更難了，但我們會交付它。感謝您提出這一點。我們會在觀眾席上。

Henri Patricot from UBS. I have a couple of follow-up questions; the first one, on the upstream and the change in the production outlook to 2030. I mean, should we expect a major change in terms of allocation between oil and gas? Obviously you raised your oil price [view to] $70, so should we expect [to be a bit skewed] towards all projects in the later part of this decade? Or you still intend to keep that fairly balanced oil, gas.

來自瑞銀的 Henri Patricot。我有幾個後續問題；第一個，關於上游和 2030 年生產前景的變化。我的意思是，我們是否應該期待石油和天然氣之間的分配發生重大變化？顯然你將油價 [view to] 70 美元，那麼我們是否應該期望 [有點偏向] 本十年後期的所有項目？或者你仍然打算保持相當平衡的石油、天然氣。

I think we'll be fairly balanced oil and gas, [Patric]. Good question. Fairly balanced oil and gas. And of course, every one of these projects must go through our investment -- reach our investment hurdles. That will be the primary determinant of how we invest, but as we look forward to the 18 billion barrels -- and I can see more than a dozen major project FIDs coming towards us from that hopper, and it's pretty balanced oil and gas.

[帕特里克]，我認為我們的石油和天然氣將相當平衡。好問題。相當平衡的石油和天然氣。當然，這些項目中的每一個都必須通過我們的投資——達到我們的投資障礙。這將是我們投資方式的主要決定因素，但當我們期待著 180 億桶時——我可以看到十多個主要項目 FID 從那個料斗中湧向我們，而且它是相當平衡的石油和天然氣。

Returns-driven, at the end of the day.

歸根結底，以回報為導向。

Returns-driven, at the end of the day, yes.

歸根結底，以回報為導向，是的。

Second question before you were interrupted.

在你被打擾之前的第二個問題。

Second question is a follow-up on a previous question around the capital allocation and the increase of $1 billion per annum of upstream and on the transition. It sounded like it's all subject to the macro and your ability to generate the cash flow to finance that growth, so you basically have line of sight of enough projects to actually go through with all these. Is that fair?

第二個問題是關於資本分配和上游每年增加 10 億美元以及轉型問題的後續問題。聽起來這一切都取決於宏觀和你產生現金流來為增長提供資金的能力，所以你基本上可以看到足夠多的項目來實際完成所有這些。這公平嗎？

Yes, there's definitely not a lack of opportunities to spend CapEx. Let me put it that way; for '23, '24 or '25, short-cycle paybacks. Gordon is already getting the rigs. They're already coming into the portfolio. The returns are super high [on those]. Likewise, on the -- so I think that's something we'll do and it's robust through pretty low prices. You see we're holding our resilient balance point. It's robust through pretty low prices. As you then look at the transition: We're committed to doing these transition investments. If you cycled around the team, Emma is doing a fabulous job on EV adoption. I wouldn't be surprised if she does better than she's talking about. Convenience is going very well. I think we're very excited in the biofuel space, between the refineries and additional facilities we see. As Bernard said, the Archaea transaction is going to be faster, better. I think we'll see lots of opportunities there, so I'd probably count on the higher end of the capital range and that we'll drive towards that. All of this delivers EBITDA, obviously. And an awful lot of the EBITDA that's coming from the transition growth engines isn't price sensitive, so we'll have higher earnings that aren't as sensitive to the low price environment. So I'd count on us being able to manage through this time period with a fairly high opportunity set.

是的，絕對不缺乏花費資本支出的機會。讓我這樣說吧；對於 '23、'24 或 '25，短期回報。戈登已經拿到了鑽井平台。他們已經進入投資組合。 [那些]的回報非常高。同樣，在 - 所以我認為這是我們會做的事情，並且通過相當低的價格它很強大。你看我們保持著我們的彈性平衡點。通過相當低的價格，它很強大。當您查看過渡時：我們致力於進行這些過渡投資。如果您環顧團隊，Emma 在電動汽車採用方面做得非常出色。如果她做得比她說的好，我不會感到驚訝。便利進行得很好。我認為我們對生物燃料領域感到非常興奮，在我們看到的煉油廠和其他設施之間。正如 Bernard 所說，Archaea 交易將變得更快、更好。我認為我們會在那裡看到很多機會，所以我可能會指望資本範圍的高端，我們會朝著那個方向努力。顯然，所有這些都帶來了 EBITDA。來自轉型增長引擎的大量 EBITDA 對價格不敏感，因此我們將獲得對低價環境不那麼敏感的更高收益。因此，我希望我們能夠以相當高的機會來管理這段時間。

Great. And there is a big wrapper, Murray, in there around this whole presentation, which is everything we do here has to meet our returns and our growth targets, has to meet. And that's the -- a wrapper, the underpinner or the foundation of everything that we talk about today. And if the returns aren't there, the capital doesn't get spent. If the returns and growth are there, it will get spent. Christyan?

偉大的。在整個演示文稿中有一個很大的包裝，默里，這是我們在這裡所做的一切都必須滿足我們的回報和增長目標，必須滿足。這就是我們今天談論的一切的包裝、支柱或基礎。如果沒有回報，資本就不會花掉。如果有回報和增長，它就會被花掉。克里斯蒂安？

Christyan Malek from JPMorgan. So a sort of one quite long question, if I may, which is 3 years ago I asked the question what if oil prices were higher, but as you said, we'd be very focused on CapEx. We wouldn't increase CapEx. And you're increasing CapEx on oil through a high oil price deck. And so it sort of begs the question in terms of I see how you have to frame a macro view and you've got to take a view. I agree with it in some ways, particularly in the oil piece, but what I'm struggling with is the disaggregation of value created through your macro outlook versus what you're doing bottom-up through the businesses and the proof of concept in terms of the cash flow generated in your renewables vis-à-vis the investment and the return you're making against a price view. And it's not that clear, what you're assuming in the renewables segment, as it is obviously in oil because you can just put a Brent forecast down, so how do you help us disaggregate that value creation from what is a macro call to actually creating value through the value chain in renewables, particularly when it's becoming increasingly commoditized is sort of the part A of my question.

摩根大通的 Christyan Malek。所以這是一個很長的問題，如果可以的話，那是 3 年前我問的問題，如果油價上漲會怎樣，但正如你所說，我們將非常關注資本支出。我們不會增加資本支出。而且您正在通過高油價套牌增加石油的資本支出。所以這有點引出了一個問題，我看到你必須如何構建一個宏觀視圖並且你必須採取一個觀點。我在某些方面同意它，特別是在石油方面，但我正在努力解決的是通過宏觀前景創造的價值與你通過業務自下而上所做的事情以及概念證明的分解您的可再生能源產生的現金流量與投資和您根據價格觀點獲得的回報之間的關係。目前還不清楚，你在可再生能源領域的假設是什麼，因為它顯然是在石油中，因為你可以把布倫特原油的預測降下來，那麼你如何幫助我們將價值創造從宏觀上分解為實際通過可再生能源的價值鏈創造價值，特別是當它變得越來越商品化時，這是我問題的 A 部分。

Part B is, in the spirit of changing CapEx relative to your macro view, what's stopping you from flipping it back again if you become more bearish in one of those segments? In other words, you don't think renewables is going to generate the same returns, so you reduce CapEx. I mean it sort of feels quite dynamic and fluid around CapEx versus the prevailing macro view which can obviously change and, as you said, be very volatile.

B 部分是，本著相對於你的宏觀觀點改變資本支出的精神，如果你在其中一個領域變得更加悲觀，是什麼阻止你再次將其翻轉回來？換句話說，您認為可再生能源不會產生相同的回報，因此您減少了資本支出。我的意思是，與普遍存在的宏觀觀點相比，圍繞資本支出的感覺有點動態和流動性，後者顯然會發生變化，而且正如你所說，非常不穩定。

So the -- so you're making an assumption, I think, that we're growing capital because we increased our price deck. That's not the case. We're growing capital because we want to grow BP. You ask for disaggregation. It's very clear. It's in the deck. We deliver $5 billion to $6 billion of extra EBITDA by 2030, forget price, from the investments that we've got, $3 billion to $4 billion in hydrocarbons, $2 billion extra in our transition growth engines. So this is about growth. This is about opportunities that we see to invest both in today's energy security and in the energy transition, all of which we believe are accretive. They drive earnings. It's why -- one of the reasons we've raised the dividend today is because we are investing and we see more potential to grow. So this isn't about, prices go up, CapEx goes up. It's very, very different to that. This is a -- very, very disciplined; focused on growth, where we can meet the returns that we laid out. And I think within there we're very clear, Murray, about where that extra EBITDA comes from, how much is -- I think we're crystal clear actually in the deck on that. Murray, what have I missed?

所以 - 所以你假設，我認為，我們正在增加資本，因為我們提高了我們的價格。事實並非如此。我們正在增加資本，因為我們想發展 BP。你要求分解。這很清楚。它在甲板上。到 2030 年，我們將提供 50 億至 60 億美元的額外 EBITDA，忘記價格，從我們已經獲得的投資中，30 億至 40 億美元用於碳氫化合物，20 億美元用於我們的轉型增長引擎。所以這是關於增長的。這是關於我們看到的投資於當今能源安全和能源轉型的機會，我們認為所有這些都是增值的。他們推動收入。這就是為什麼 - 我們今天提高股息的原因之一是因為我們正在投資並且我們看到了更多的增長潛力。所以這不是關於價格上漲，資本支出上漲。與此非常非常不同。這是一個——非常、非常有紀律的；專注於增長，我們可以在這裡實現我們設定的回報。我認為我們非常清楚，默里，關於額外的 EBITDA 來自哪裡，有多少 - 我認為我們實際上在甲板上非常清楚。默里，我錯過了什麼？

Where returns (inaudible) returns-driven. Slide 18 tells you our returns and our assumptions. I'm not really sure how I'd get much clearer on that. And this is about performance really. If you go back to 2020, our balance sheet wasn't as strong as it is now, so we've got a much stronger balance sheet. We've improved our position with the ratings agencies. It gives us the capacity to invest more to drive more returns for shareholders, so we -- it's much more about performance and where -- what the strength of the company is rather than an arbitrary view on price which, you're right, can change over time.

其中回報（聽不清）回報驅動。幻燈片 18 告訴您我們的回報和我們的假設。我不太確定如何才能更清楚地了解這一點。這真的與性能有關。如果回到 2020 年，我們的資產負債表並不像現在這樣強勁，所以我們的資產負債表要強大得多。我們已經改善了我們在評級機構中的地位。它使我們有能力進行更多投資以為股東帶來更多回報，因此我們——這更多地是關於業績以及在哪裡——公司的實力是什麼，而不是對價格的武斷看法，你是對的，可以隨著時間的推移而變化。

Yes, so we'll invest more. We're going to grow the company. We're going to deliver the returns. And the shareholders are going to see increased value both through distributions, like the announcement today on the dividend, so -- but we can follow up on it. Where do I go next? Here in the back. Sorry...

是的，所以我們會投入更多。我們要發展公司。我們將交付回報。股東們將通過分配看到增加的價值，就像今天關於股息的公告，所以——但我們可以跟進。我下一步去哪裡？在後面。對不起...

You forgot the left side, Bernard. You forgot the left side...

你忘了左邊，伯納德。你忘了左邊...

You're biased.

你有偏見。

We're the right side...

我們是右邊...

Thanks, guys. This is a feedback-rich organization. Just upward feedback is alive and well, great. Go for it.

多謝你們。這是一個反饋豐富的組織。只是向上的反饋是活生生的，很好，很好。大膽試試吧。

Great to hear that. It's Amy Wong here from Crédit Suisse. I'd love to take advantage of having Anja on the panel, to ask a question on biogas. Clearly you guys are making a pretty big statement with we have the Archaea Energy acquisition, but also I just want to hear about how do you scale a business? Like -- because I think what I really struggle and some of the investors struggle is to understand how a biogas business where you're going from landfill to landfill is a scalable business and can deliver the type of returns. And I think it was also mentioned on the panel that you're going to do Archaea better and faster, so what's driving some of those comments?

很高興聽到。我是來自 Crédit Suisse 的 Amy Wong。我很想利用 Anja 在小組中的機會，問一個關於沼氣的問題。很明顯，你們在收購 Archaea Energy 方面做出了非常重要的聲明，但我也只想听聽你們如何擴展業務？就像——因為我認為我真正掙扎的和一些投資者掙扎的是了解你從一個垃圾填埋場到另一個垃圾填埋場的沼氣業務如何成為一個可擴展的業務，並且可以提供那種類型的回報。我認為小組討論中還提到你們將更好更快地開發 Archaea，那麼是什麼推動了這些評論？

Amy, thank you. It's actually Carol's business, so we should give it to Carol. And we had Nick Stork here and his team (inaudible). And we are particularly excited about this business. Go for it.

艾米，謝謝你。這實際上是卡羅爾的事，所以我們應該把它交給卡羅爾。我們有 Nick Stork 和他的團隊（聽不清）。我們對這項業務感到特別興奮。大膽試試吧。

No, we are very excited about the business and we do see great opportunities, so I think, when you look at it -- I mean, at the moment, of course, we are looking at integration, BP, Archaea platform coming together, but as Bernard mentioned previously, there's a significant -- there's more than 80 projects in that pipeline. We've got the ability to do a modular scaling across each of these landfills, go in there, develop the gas and bring that out and then look at different transportation routes to market, so we can increase and accelerate production. We can increase recoveries and we can also look at accessing newer revenue streams as well. I mean, in the future, we'll have hydrogen as an opportunity, but right now we can do methanol. We can do CCS, EV charging for Emma's business. We've got utilities interested in renewable natural gas because it's lower CI. So it's transportation. It's utilities. We could take it into our refineries. There are so many opportunities around it, which creates the optionality that we like in the portfolio. It gives us an opportunity to build the best markets for that to gain premiums and also to train -- trade around those positions, so it is certainly scalable. And we see strong returns and we see the opportunity to invest more. And yes, hugely excited to be working with the team.

不，我們對這項業務感到非常興奮，我們確實看到了巨大的機會，所以我認為，當你看它時——我的意思是，目前，當然，我們正在考慮整合，BP，Archaea 平台走到一起，但正如伯納德之前提到的那樣，有一個重要的 - 該管道中有 80 多個項目。我們有能力對這些垃圾填埋場中的每一個進行模塊化擴展，進入那裡，開發氣體並將其帶出，然後研究不同的運輸路線進入市場，這樣我們就可以增加和加速生產。我們可以增加回收率，我們也可以考慮獲得更新的收入來源。我的意思是，在未來，我們將以氫為契機，但現在我們可以做甲醇。我們可以為Emma的業務做CCS、EV充電。我們的公用事業公司對可再生天然氣感興趣，因為它的 CI 較低。所以是交通。是實用程序。我們可以把它帶進我們的煉油廠。它周圍有很多機會，這創造了我們在投資組合中喜歡的可選性。它讓我們有機會建立最好的市場，以獲得溢價並培訓——圍繞這些頭寸進行交易，因此它肯定是可擴展的。我們看到了豐厚的回報，我們看到了進行更多投資的機會。是的，非常高興能與團隊合作。

And if I could, back to Christyan's point. Christyan, it's a good example. We're putting more money into Archaea than Archaea would have on their own. They could have probably done 20 sites a year of that 80. We'll do more quickly because we have the balance sheet to be able to lean into that investment. What's the stat? We'll get 30% of that CapEx back if we get them online by 2025. So these are decisions that, with the balance sheet, we can lean in. They've got nothing to do with the price assumption on oil. This is an -- opportunity-driven. We're going to speed up that pipeline and get those 80 sites online in the next couple of years. And the EBITDA from that is going to be material, without question, so pretty exciting. Anyway, Amy, thank you. Where were you guys pointing to me? Biraj -- sorry. How are we doing, Craig? Are we okay?

如果可以的話，回到克里斯蒂安的觀點。克里斯蒂安，這是一個很好的例子。我們向 Archaea 投入的資金超過了 Archaea 自己投入的資金。他們可能每年完成 80 個網站中的 20 個。我們會做得更快，因為我們有資產負債表，能夠投入這項投資。狀態如何？如果我們在 2025 年之前讓它們上線，我們將收回 30% 的資本支出。因此，這些是我們可以根據資產負債表做出的決定。它們與石油價格假設無關。這是一個 - 機會驅動。我們將加快這條管道，並在未來幾年內讓這 80 個網站上線。毫無疑問，由此產生的 EBITDA 將是重要的，非常令人興奮。不管怎樣，艾米，謝謝你。你們指我哪裡？ Biraj——對不起。我們怎麼樣，克雷格？我們還好嗎？

[We're doing excellent]...

[我們做得很好] ...

Okay, all right, all right, okay...

好吧好吧好吧...

It's Biraj from RBC. 2 questions, please. The first one, in the upstream, could you just clarify whether -- or what role, if any, exploration success has in your plans to 2025 and 2030? And sort of related to that, on the inorganic side, most of the inorganic activity acquisitions-wise has been on low carbon last couple of years. And I don't want to make Gordon's life even harder, but are you open to inorganic bolt-ons in the upstream? And how are you thinking about that within the constraints of the framework?

我是來自 RBC 的 Biraj。 2個問題，請。第一個，在上游，你能否澄清一下，勘探成功在你到 2025 年和 2030 年的計劃中是否有作用，或者有什麼作用？與此相關的是，在無機方面，過去幾年大多數無機活動收購都是低碳的。而且我不想讓戈登的生活更加艱難，但你對上游的無機螺栓固定持開放態度嗎？您如何在框架的約束下考慮這一點？

And then second question is going back to LNG. So last quarter, Murray, you highlighted the big working capital outflow because of the margining. If I'm thinking about BP hedging through summer, the 2023 price was actually way above the price cap which was then implemented, so how does that price cap impacts 2023, if at all, in the LNG business?

然後第二個問題回到液化天然氣。所以上個季度，默里，你強調了由於利潤率導致的大量營運資金流出。如果我在考慮 BP 整個夏季的對沖，2023 年的價格實際上遠高於當時實施的價格上限，那麼該價格上限如何影響 2023 年液化天然氣業務（如果有的話）？

Fantastic. Okay, thank you, Biraj. Carol, I'll ask you to lead off on price caps, or Murray, as you guys debate it. Carol, go for it on price caps and hedging. And then Gordon, is exploration success built into your plan? Do you need it? And are you going to come to Murray and I with a bunch of money to go and buy oil and gas assets when you've got 18 billion barrels of your own, clue. Go ahead, Carol.

極好的。好的，謝謝你，比拉吉。 Carol，我請你在價格上限或 Murray 的問題上起主導作用，因為你們正在討論這個問題。卡羅爾，爭取價格上限和對沖。然後 Gordon，您的計劃中是否包含勘探成功？你需要它嗎？當你擁有 180 億桶自己的資產時，你會帶著一大筆錢來找默里和我購買石油和天然氣資產嗎，線索。去吧，卡羅爾。

So talking about the European market correction mechanism. So we're working through that. I mean that there are a number of nuances around that in terms of it has to be over a certain number of days. And then it -- there also has to be a certain delta in terms of when that actual cap gets triggered. I think the whole market is working through that at the moment. Do we think in any way that it impacts our ability to manage our portfolio? No. We do have other opportunities. We've got opportunities directly, bilaterals. We've also got opportunities in terms of different structures that we can use. Our role is to make sure that we've got the optionality. We're being proactive around managing that risk. And with Murray's support and treasury support, that is certainly what we did last year in terms of getting ahead of some of these changes in the market.

所以說說歐洲市場的修正機制。所以我們正在努力解決這個問題。我的意思是，就它必須超過一定天數而言，存在許多細微差別。然後它——就實際上限何時被觸發而言，也必須有一定的增量。我認為目前整個市場都在努力解決這個問題。我們認為它會以任何方式影響我們管理投資組合的能力嗎？不，我們還有其他機會。我們有直接的機會，雙邊的。在我們可以使用的不同結構方面，我們也有機會。我們的角色是確保我們有選擇權。我們正在積極主動地管理這種風險。在 Murray 的支持和財政部的支持下，這肯定是我們去年在領先於市場中的一些變化方面所做的。

Thank you, Carol. Gordon?

謝謝你，卡羅爾。戈登？

Yes. On exploration, we -- the 2030 outcome is influenced by exploration success by a very small way. What do I mean by that? We have exploration success built into the 18 billion barrels but on a risked basis. We take the exploration risk. And the reason we've done that is we have some pretty rich what we call ILX, infrastructure-led exploration, opportunities, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, in the North Sea and in Egypt, which if they come in will become part of the fast tieback opportunity set, but to emphasize and to answer the question: They're all risked within the 18 billion barrels, so has a very small impact on the outcome in 2030.

是的。在勘探方面，我們——2030 年的結果受勘探成功的影響很小。那是什麼意思？我們在 180 億桶石油中取得了勘探成功，但這是在冒險的基礎上進行的。我們承擔勘探風險。我們這樣做的原因是我們有一些非常豐富的我們稱之為 ILX 的基礎設施主導的勘探機會，特別是在墨西哥灣、北海和埃及，如果他們進來，這些機會將成為快速回扣機會集，但要強調並回答問題：它們都面臨 180 億桶的風險，因此對 2030 年的結果影響非常小。

Not reliant on it.

不依賴它。

Not relying on it is the simple answer on that. And then am I going to come and ask for money to buy inorganic [set]? The answer is a qualified yes where it's a natural fit in the portfolio. Are we going to go buy something way outside our current portfolio, way outside our [heartlands] that we have in our company? No. That doesn't make any sense. Other companies can go and do that, but where there's a natural bolt-on and we could add more value having it in our portfolio than we think anyone else could and it meets the criteria of contributing to low carbon and low costs and security of supply, then of course, we would consider that.

不依賴它是對此的簡單答案。然後我要來要錢買無機[套裝]？答案是肯定的，因為它很適合投資組合。我們是否要購買我們當前投資組合之外的東西，遠離我們公司擁有的[中心地帶]？不，那沒有任何意義。其他公司可以去做，但是如果有一個自然的補強，我們可以在我們的投資組合中增加比我們認為任何其他人都可以的更多價值，它符合促進低碳和低成本和供應安全的標準，那麼我們當然會考慮。

Very good. I mean I think we used to call it smart M&A or commercial deals. Aker BP -- instead of exiting Norway, we created Aker BP. Aker BP then went and bought Lundin. Aker BP is operated by other production. From Johan Sverdrup alone, it's 250,000 barrels a day. It's a pretty extraordinary company now that was created. Instead -- we could have exited Angola maybe, but we didn't. We wanted to stay. We wanted to grow. We've created Azule Energy, so think about it as I think you'll -- you may see us doing some smart M&A, commercial deals, partnerships, things that make sense in that space. We'll -- go ahead. Go for it. Craig, are you okay to run on a little bit here, 15 more minutes, yes, or not? You're the boss.

非常好。我的意思是我認為我們過去稱其為智能併購或商業交易。 Aker BP——我們沒有退出挪威，而是創建了 Aker BP。 Aker BP 隨後去收購了 Lundin。 Aker BP 由其他生產經營。僅 Johan Sverdrup 一個人，每天就有 250,000 桶。這是一家非常非凡的公司，現在已經創建了。相反——我們本可以退出安哥拉，但我們沒有。我們想留下來。我們想成長。我們已經創建了 Azule Energy，所以請像我認為的那樣思考它——您可能會看到我們在進行一些明智的併購、商業交易、合作夥伴關係，以及在該領域有意義的事情。我們會 - 繼續。大膽試試吧。克雷格，你可以在這裡跑一會兒嗎，再跑 15 分鐘，可以嗎？你是老闆。

I'm not, but yes, we can go another 15 minutes, yes.

我不是，但是是的，我們可以再談 15 分鐘，是的。

I think we should while we're going, so we'll go 15 more minutes. And then we'll let you guys have a break and we'll have time outside. Go ahead.

我想我們應該一邊走一邊走，所以我們再走 15 分鐘。然後我們會讓你們休息一下，我們會有時間在外面。前進。

Peter Low from Redburn. So yes, the first question. You've announced an increase in spending today across the oil and gas and the renewable and low-carbon piece. I think it's probably fair to say you're seeing inflationary cost pressures in both. How are you managing that? And kind of what inflation assumptions are embedded within the CapEx budget? And then the second question was just on kind of the 2030 renewable power targets, so the 50 gigawatts and the 10 gigawatts. Can you just explain the difference between those 2? Is a lot of it going to be under construction, or will you be farming it down? Some color on that would be helpful.

來自雷德本的彼得·洛。所以是的，第一個問題。您今天宣布增加在石油和天然氣以及可再生和低碳領域的支出。我認為可以公平地說，你在這兩個方面都看到了通脹成本壓力。你是怎麼管理的？資本支出預算中嵌入了什麼樣的通貨膨脹假設？然後第二個問題是關於 2030 年可再生能源目標的類型，即 50 吉瓦和 10 吉瓦。你能解釋一下這兩個之間的區別嗎？是否有很多正在建設中，或者你會把它種下來嗎？一些顏色會有所幫助。

Fantastic. Murray, first of all, just general CapEx/inflation. And then Anja.

極好的。 Murray，首先，只是一般的資本支出/通貨膨脹。然後是安雅。

CapEx/inflation is pretty -- continues to be pretty low for us. You'll remember, back in 2022, we had about 10% inflation inside the Lower 48, Gordon. Since then, for 2023, we've gone out and [let] longer-term contracts. And we've seen deflation, as opposed to inflation, so it's not really featuring as a material issue across the upstream. I think in low carbon there's really no change from previous guidance. Around 5% inflation is what we saw in the offshore wind platform. There's more inside solar, but solar is self-funding inside BP -- inside Lightsource bp, so that doesn't impact the overall balance sheet. So despite the extraordinary environment we've been through the past couple of years, these guys have done a tremendous job working with supply chain to mitigate those supply chain effects. And I wouldn't expect them to not continue to do that in the future.

資本支出/通貨膨脹率很高——對我們來說仍然很低。你會記得，早在 2022 年，美國本土 48 區的通貨膨脹率約為 10%，戈登。從那時起，到 2023 年，我們已經出去 [讓] 長期合同。我們已經看到了通貨緊縮，而不是通貨膨脹，所以它並不是真正的上游實質性問題。我認為在低碳方面，與之前的指南相比確實沒有變化。我們在海上風電平台上看到的通貨膨脹率約為 5%。太陽能內部有更多，但太陽能在 BP 內部是自籌資金的——在 Lightsource bp 內部，因此這不會影響整體資產負債表。因此，儘管過去幾年我們經歷了非凡的環境，但這些人在與供應鏈合作以減輕這些供應鏈影響方面做得非常出色。而且我不希望他們將來不會繼續這樣做。

Great. Anja, 50 and 10...

偉大的。安雅，50 歲和 10 歲……

50 and 10. We said 50 gigawatts to FID. And as I said, we'll be very selective in terms of where we allocate CapEx because it has to ultimately make sense, create integration value and as such a superior return and derisk because you don't have access to green electrons everywhere around the planet. So 50 to give -- 50 to FID. 10 will be in operations, [hold it]; another 10 in construction. And then the rest is farm-downs. And a lot of the 50 will come from Lightsource bp, which is a develop-and-sell model, very, very attractive, very stable, but we will also farm-down on, let's say for example, offshore wind assets, et cetera because ultimately what we want is access to the green electron and the high-grading opportunity. And we don't need to necessarily control 100% of the asset.

50 和 10。我們對 FID 說 50 吉瓦。正如我所說，我們將在分配資本支出方面非常有選擇性，因為它最終必須有意義，創造整合價值，並因此獲得卓越的回報和降低風險，因為你無法在全球各地獲得綠色電子行星。所以 50 給 - 50 給 FID。 10 將投入運營，[持有它]；另有 10 個正在建設中。然後剩下的就是農場了。 50 個中的很多將來自 Lightsource bp，這是一種開發和銷售模式，非常非常有吸引力，非常穩定，但我們也會進行農場投資，例如海上風電資產等因為最終我們想要的是獲得綠色電子和高等級機會。而且我們不需要一定控制 100% 的資產。

Excellent, thank you, Anja. Alastair -- or not Alastair. Go, go, go, Martijn. Sorry. I -- these photographs. Guys, you need to update your photographs because -- I think, Os, you're the only person who hasn't aged, [and everyone] -- but go for it.

太好了，謝謝你，安雅。阿拉斯泰爾——或者不是阿拉斯泰爾。走，走，走，馬丁。對不起。我——這些照片。伙計們，你需要更新你的照片，因為——我認為，Os，你是唯一沒有變老的人，[和每個人]——但去吧。

Thanks, Bernard....

謝謝，伯納德……

Well, can we -- so slightly conceptual, but I was wondering the $8 billion in oil and gas in sort of today's environment. It's not entirely sort of obvious. And sort of a lot of technical questions have already been asked about it, but I was wondering how the internal sort of decision-making process came about to sort of -- got you there; what the milestones or the signposts along the way were where you think, yes, really, like, we need to do this. Was this just simply about oil and gas prices or European energy crisis? Or whatever it might be. The second thing I wanted to ask you is about the assets that you now intend to retain a little bit longer. And I'm sure you're not going to spell those out for us, but I was wondering if you could perhaps talk about whether they have a sort of shared characteristic. As in, the assets that you're now likely to retain longer, is it oil? Is it gas? Is it offshore? Is it onshore, eastern hemisphere or western hemisphere, I guess, where there's some common denominator that we can sort of work with?

好吧，我們能不能——這麼概念化，但我想知道在今天的環境中，價值 80 億美元的石油和天然氣。這並不完全是顯而易見的。已經問了很多關於它的技術問題，但我想知道內部決策過程是如何產生的——讓你到達那裡；沿途的里程碑或路標是你認為的，是的，真的，就像，我們需要這樣做。這僅僅是關於石油和天然氣價格還是歐洲能源危機？或者不管它是什麼。我想問你的第二件事是關於你現在打算保留更長時間的資產。我敢肯定你不會為我們詳細說明這些，但我想知道你是否可以談談它們是否具有某種共同特徵。比如，您現在可能會保留更長時間的資產是石油嗎？是煤氣嗎？是離岸的嗎？我猜是在陸上、東半球還是西半球，那裡有一些我們可以合作的共同點？

And then finally, if I can throw in a third one. Given the way things going, I mean, could you stay in the building?

最後，如果我可以投入第三個的話。鑑於事情的進展，我的意思是，你能留在大樓裡嗎？

Could we Stay in the building?

我們可以留在大樓裡嗎？

Yes, as in this building. Because I thought it was you would move out. I was wondering if you could stay...

是的，就像在這棟樓裡一樣。因為我以為是你會搬出去。我想知道你是否可以留下來...

[Yes, yes], great. I'm fascinated how you connect that to the investment thesis, but it is a nice building. I like it. We can follow up on that, Martijn, but great. Gordon, we'll ask you to say about the assets you're keeping longer. I mean, in terms of the production thing, it's really an output of the work that we've been doing. And I would say it's driven by 2 things. And in fact, the whole strategy, leaning in, today is driven by 2 things, Martijn. First is we've been at this for 3 years. We have done a lot. The organization has done a lot. I think it's fair to say that we can all say there's a real track record of delivery, and that has brought with it our increased confidence in the business. And in doing that, the business has improved. I'm delighted that we've had the best operating reliability on record in BP, and the records go back 15 or 20 years. I'm delighted that we have the lowest production cost since 2006. So our ability to add value to the assets that we have, have improved -- has improved over the last 3 years. That's a very important part. And then the external macro part isn't about prices. It's about -- it's what is needed. We must solve the energy trilemma. Yes, we need lower-carbon energy, but we also need secure energy and we need affordable energy. And that's what governments and society around the world are asking and they're asking it publicly. They're asking it in the United States. "Invest in today's energy system." They're every -- not country in Europe but many countries in Europe going around the world searching for energy supplies. So we're being asked by governments and society. We have improved our business. We have more confidence. And we think, in doing this, we can help solve the energy trilemma for society, which feels a worthwhile thing to do. And we feel we can create shareholder value, and that's what we're trying to do. That's what we have to do. That's our job. So that's a little bit of the backdrop. Gordon...

[是的，是的]，太好了。我很著迷你如何將它與投資主題聯繫起來，但它是一座漂亮的建築。我喜歡。我們可以跟進，Martijn，但是很好。戈登，我們會請你談談你持有更長時間的資產。我的意思是，就生產而言，這實際上是我們一直在做的工作的成果。我會說它是由兩件事驅動的。事實上，今天的整個戰略都由兩件事驅動，Martijn。首先，我們已經從事這項工作 3 年了。我們做了很多。該組織做了很多工作。我認為可以公平地說，我們都可以說有真實的交付記錄，這使我們對業務的信心增強。在這樣做的過程中，業務得到了改善。我很高興我們擁有 BP 有史以來最好的運營可靠性，而且這些記錄可以追溯到 15 或 20 年前。我很高興我們的生產成本是自 2006 年以來最低的。因此，在過去 3 年中，我們為現有資產增值的能力有所提高。這是一個非常重要的部分。然後外部宏觀部分與價格無關。這是關於——這就是所需要的。我們必須解決能源三難困境。是的，我們需要低碳能源，但我們也需要安全的能源，我們需要負擔得起的能源。這就是世界各國政府和社會所要求的，而且他們正在公開要求。他們在美國問。 “投資於當今的能源系統。”他們不是歐洲的國家，而是歐洲的許多國家，他們正在世界各地尋找能源供應。所以我們被政府和社會問到。我們改善了我們的業務。我們更有信心。我們認為，通過這樣做，我們可以幫助解決社會的能源三難困境，這是一件值得去做的事情。我們覺得我們可以創造股東價值，這就是我們正在努力做的事情。那就是我們必須做的。那是我們的工作。這就是背景的一點點。戈登...

Yes. In terms of the assets that we now plan to keep, I'd say there's 3 characteristics. The first one is an improved view of the commerciality around these assets. And I gave the example of Azule and Aker BP, [London energy]; and there are others. So the commercial opportunity around owning these assets, we've got an enhanced view of. The operating performance, and Bernard just mentioned it, that we have seen an improvement. And we can see more improvement going forward in these assets. And that all leads, of course, to the third characteristic, which is returns. It's all returns-driven, the -- our returns criteria. And it fits with our -- how we look at returns going forward.

是的。就我們現在計劃保留的資產而言，我認為有 3 個特徵。第一個是對圍繞這些資產的商業性的改進看法。我舉了 Azule 和 Aker BP 的例子，[倫敦能源]；還有其他人。因此，我們對擁有這些資產的商業機會有了更深入的了解。經營業績，伯納德剛才提到了，我們已經看到了改善。我們可以看到這些資產在未來會有更多的改進。當然，這一切都導致了第三個特徵，即回報。這都是回報驅動的——我們的回報標準。它符合我們——我們如何看待未來的回報。

And we are going to move from St James's Square at some stage, but it would be another year or 2. So this year lady here, please. Thank you.

我們將在某個階段從聖詹姆斯廣場搬走，但這將是一年或兩年。所以今年女士們，請在座。謝謝。

It's Kim Fustier from HSBC. On the incremental dollars going into hydrocarbons, I suppose you mentioned BPX and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, but you didn't mention LNG. And when it comes to the energy security concerns that Bernard alluded to, you would have thought LNG would be front and center of those, so I just wondered if you had any plans to invest incremental CapEx into LNG; or maybe use a more capital-light strategy such as, for example, contracting third-party LNG from other companies. My second question is on the impact of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act. I wondered if you could offer any thoughts on what that does to the economics of your existing low-carbon projects such as hydrogen and CCS and bioenergy; and whether, as a result of the IRA, it might attract more of your own investment dollars going forward into the U.S.

我是匯豐銀行的 Kim Fustier。關於進入碳氫化合物的增量美元，我想你提到了 BPX 和美國墨西哥灣，但你沒有提到液化天然氣。當談到伯納德提到的能源安全問題時，你會認為液化天然氣將是其中的前沿和中心，所以我只是想知道你是否有任何計劃將增量資本支出投資到液化天然氣中；或者可能使用更輕資本的策略，例如從其他公司承包第三方液化天然氣。我的第二個問題是關於美國通貨膨脹減少法案的影響。我想知道您是否可以就這對您現有的低碳項目（例如氫和 CCS 以及生物能源）的經濟性有何影響提出任何想法；以及 IRA 的結果是否會吸引更多你自己的投資資金進入美國

Great, Kim. Thank you very much. I'll ask Anja to take on the impact -- on the IRA. Carol can add anything on biogas, on the IRA, if she wishes. And Carol, LNG? I mean just the growth that we have in LNG over the next 3 years. And maybe just spell that out a little bit and how we think about it.

太好了，金。非常感謝。我會請 Anja 承擔對 IRA 的影響。如果 Carol 願意，她可以在 IRA 上添加任何關於沼氣的東西。卡羅爾，液化天然氣？我的意思是未來 3 年我們在液化天然氣方面的增長。也許只是稍微說明一下，以及我們是如何看待它的。

Yes, no, absolutely. So 19 million tonnes per annum in 2022, grow to 25 million in 2025 and 30 million in 2030. It's a mix of merchant and equity, but we will see the balance going to more merchant in the future. We have a contracting strategy we have done for a number of years. And as Bernard mentioned before, we've been able to time those purchases well in terms of actually avoiding buying in the peaks and selling in the troughs, so we've got a good process around that and we'll continue to look for opportunities as they go forward. And then of course, we've got -- on the upstream gas side, we work very closely with Anja and the team there and with Gordon in terms of selling and trading the equity from BP's positions.

是的，不，絕對。因此，到 2022 年每年 1900 萬噸，到 2025 年增長到 2500 萬噸，到 2030 年增長到 3000 萬噸。這是商人和股權的混合體，但我們會看到未來餘額會流向更多的商人。我們有一個承包策略，我們已經做了很多年。正如 Bernard 之前提到的，我們已經能夠很好地安排這些購買的時間，實際上避免了在高峰期買入和在低谷時賣出，所以我們有一個很好的流程，我們將繼續尋找機會隨著他們前進。然後，當然，我們已經 - 在上游天然氣方面，我們與 Anja 和那裡的團隊以及戈登在出售和交易 BP 頭寸的股權方面密切合作。

Great, okay. And anything...

太好了，好吧。還有什麼...

Then on the equity side. I suppose we have some choices ahead of us. We've got some choices in Australia. We've got choices in West Africa. We've got choices in the Middle East to continue to think about expanding equity investment in LNG as well. And those are decisions that we'll be making over time.

然後是股權方面。我想我們面前有一些選擇。我們在澳大利亞有一些選擇。我們在西非有選擇。我們在中東有選擇，可以繼續考慮擴大對液化天然氣的股權投資。這些是我們將隨著時間的推移做出的決定。

Great. IRA in the United States?

偉大的。美國的愛爾蘭共和軍？

Game changer, very, very clearly. That underpins really a lot of the projects we have been working on not only in my space but equally so in Emma's space. I think -- and as a consequence of IRA, we clearly have prioritized projects in the U.S. versus other regions around the world. I think it's fair to say that Europe is catching up and some very good announcement or promising announcement last weeks, but it's the beauty of the IRA is the simplicity. And I think this is where, I think, Europe, let's say, needs to catch up a little bit with kind of you have to kind of [bid your projects into it, say], et cetera, et cetera. So very clearly a strong focus on the U.S. as a consequence of IRA; and then strong focus, as Bernard explained, on our refinery projects because these are natural things for the hydrogen. So I think we feel comfortable about the delivery.

遊戲規則改變者，非常非常清楚。這確實支撐了我們一直在從事的許多項目，不僅在我的領域，而且在 Emma 的領域也是如此。我認為——作為 IRA 的結果，我們顯然已經優先考慮了美國的項目而不是世界其他地區。我認為可以公平地說，歐洲正在迎頭趕上，上週發布了一些非常好的公告或有希望的公告，但 IRA 的優點在於簡單。而且我認為這就是歐洲，我認為，比方說，需要趕上一些你必須要[將你的項目納入其中]，等等，等等。很明顯，由於愛爾蘭共和軍，人們非常關注美國；然後，正如伯納德解釋的那樣，重點關注我們的煉油廠項目，因為這些是氫氣的自然產物。所以我認為我們對交付感到滿意。

Good, great, Anja. Thank you. We'll take one more question in the room. I'm just going to take Jason Kenney from Santander. Jason, I think your second question has been addressed. Carol, good job on delivery by BP in 2022. That's from Jason, [not from] me...

很好，很好，安雅。謝謝。我們將在房間裡再回答一個問題。我只想從桑坦德銀行帶走傑森·肯尼。傑森，我想你的第二個問題已經得到解決。 Carol，BP 在 2022 年的交付工作做得很好。那是 Jason 的，[不是] 我...

Yes, we haven't had our performance appraisal yet, have we?

是的，我們還沒有進行績效評估，是嗎？

[Not right now]. Later today. If trading has added -- let's see how you do in this one. If trading has added 4% to ROACE over the last 3 years, what should we expect in the next -- you can thank Murray. What should we expect in the next 3 years? "I'm assuming," he is assuming, "2% through cycle, but how much is excessive volatility? And how much is average conditions?"

[不是現在]。今天晚些時候。如果交易已經增加——讓我們看看你在這方面的表現。如果在過去 3 年中 ROACE 的交易量增加了 4%，那麼接下來我們應該期待什麼——你可以感謝默里。未來三年我們應該期待什麼？ “我假設，”他假設，“整個週期為 2%，但過度波動是多少？平均狀況是多少？”

So I know, with my learned colleague on the left here, he would say, "No guidance," but what I can say is that we do have -- strongly believe that we do have a differentiated trading platform, global scale, experience, multiple markets, multiple commodities, multiple customers. We have benefited from the inherent increase in volatility over the past few years, but we've also seen growth in that portfolio. We also see further growth going forward, whether that's across biogas, biofuels or LNG; or even then into the newer commodities, hydrogen and their derivatives. I believe we've got strong capability, risk management, trading, optimization, analytics. We would like to say world class. And I think, subject to volatility and retaining our competitive advantage, as Murray had said, we would like to continue to deliver for BP going forward.

所以我知道，我左邊博學的同事，他會說，“沒有指導”，但我能說的是，我們確實有——堅信我們確實有一個差異化的交易平台、全球規模、經驗，多個市場、多種商品、多個客戶。我們從過去幾年波動性的固有增加中受益，但我們也看到了該投資組合的增長。我們還看到了未來的進一步增長，無論是沼氣、生物燃料還是液化天然氣；甚至隨後進入較新的商品，氫及其衍生物。我相信我們有強大的能力、風險管理、交易、優化、分析。我們想說世界一流。而且我認為，正如默里所說，受制於波動並保持我們的競爭優勢，我們希望繼續為 BP 前進。

Sounds good. Good job, great. Last question in the room. Who wants to take the last question? We don't have any more questions -- Lydia, go on. And then we'll let you -- and then I need to wrap...

聽起來不錯。幹得好，太好了。房間裡的最後一個問題。誰想回答最後一個問題？我們沒有其他問題了 -- Lydia，請繼續。然後我們會讓你 - 然後我需要包裝......

One last one for me. Just given, like, the amount of cash flow and EBITDA that you now have, where do you want net debt to actually go to, Murray, just in terms of to help us think about long term? Because I mean, if I look at the 2025 numbers, you're essentially trading on 2x [debt-EBITDA]. So assuming you've got no debt at that point. So where do you want that to go to?

最後一張給我。就像你現在擁有的現金流量和 EBITDA 一樣，你希望淨債務實際去哪裡，穆雷，就幫助我們考慮長期而言？因為我的意思是，如果我看一下 2025 年的數字，您實際上是在交易 2 倍 [debt-EBITDA]。所以假設你那時沒有債務。那麼你希望它去哪裡？

Yes. I think, look, we give this guidance year by year. It's what we give you. We've firmed up the guidance a little bit this time. Instead of just strong investment-grade credit rating, we've said further progress in the A range, so we'll be working with the rating agencies to try to achieve that. We think, with the growth we're seeing, that we should be able to progress through the A range with that continued debt reduction, but it's a little bit about how our interaction with the ratings agencies go. So fingers crossed, but we provide this guidance 1 year at a time. We don't look beyond that. The macro environment is just too volatile to do [anything else, honestly]. So 40% of surplus to debt reduction and continued focus on growing EBITDA so that we can get that cash flow from operations over [expanded debt-down].

是的。我想，看，我們每年都會給出這個指導。這就是我們給你的。這次我們稍微加強了指導。我們說的不僅僅是強大的投資級信用評級，而是 A 範圍的進一步進展，因此我們將與評級機構合作，努力實現這一目標。我們認為，隨著我們所看到的增長，我們應該能夠在持續削減債務的情況下進入 A 級，但這與我們與評級機構的互動方式有關。所以祈禱，但我們一次提供此指導 1 年。我們不會看得更遠。宏觀環境太不穩定了[老實說，做任何其他事情]。因此，40% 的盈餘用於減少債務，並繼續關注增加 EBITDA，這樣我們就可以從運營中獲得現金流，而不是 [expanded debt-down]。

Great, thank you. And thanks for listening. I hope you've got a bit of a sense of the business; the strategy; and I hope, importantly, the team. We're sort of -- I think we're in our stride, 3 years in now. And I hope you can see the confidence that we have in what we're trying to do. We have no more time for questions. For those of you in the room, thank you for coming here. For those of you on the phone, thank you for joining us.

太好了謝謝。感謝您的聆聽。我希望您對業務有一定的了解；策略；我希望，重要的是，團隊。我們有點 - 我認為我們正在大踏步前進，現在已經 3 年了。我希望你能看到我們對我們正在努力做的事情的信心。我們沒有更多時間提問了。對於在座的各位，感謝你們來到這裡。對於電話中的那些人，感謝您加入我們。

It is an important day for us as we transform ourselves. And I hope you've heard 3 clear points. They're short. Don't worry. First, we're delivering. BP is delivering. We are performing while transforming. Second, we're leaning further into the strategy and we're doing that with increasing confidence. And third, crucially, we remain focused on delivering for our owners, our shareholders. And I and the team look forward to seeing many of you this week when we're out on the road. We're headed to the U.K. -- or we're in the U.K. We're headed to Europe. We're headed to the United States as well. And for those of you who made the journey here in person, we've got some refreshments outside. And the team will hang around to spend time and chat with you if you'd like.

這對我們來說是重要的一天，因為我們正在改變自己。我希望你已經聽到了 3 個明確的觀點。他們很矮。不用擔心。首先，我們正在交付。 BP 正在交付。我們在轉型中表演。其次，我們正在進一步傾向於該戰略，並且我們正在以越來越大的信心這樣做。第三，至關重要的是，我們仍然專注於為我們的所有者和股東提供服務。我和我的團隊期待著本週在旅途中見到你們中的許多人。我們要去英國——或者我們在英國。我們要去歐洲。我們也要去美國。對於那些親自來這裡旅行的人，我們在外面準備了一些點心。如果您願意，團隊會在附近閒逛，花時間與您聊天。

So thanks, everybody. We really appreciate it. Cheers.

所以謝謝大家。我們真的很感激。乾杯。