英國石油 (BP) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the BP presentation to the financial community webcast and conference call. I now hand over to Craig Marshall, Head of Investor Relations.

歡迎收看 BP 在金融界網絡直播和電話會議上的演講。我現在將工作交給投資者關係主管 Craig Marshall。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to BP's First Quarter 2022 Results Presentation. I'm here today with Bernard Looney, Chief Executive Officer; and Murray Auchincloss, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin today, let me draw your attention to our cautionary statement.

大家早上好，歡迎來到 BP 2022 年第一季度業績發布會。我今天和首席執行官伯納德·魯尼（Bernard Looney）一起來這裡；和首席財務官 Murray Auchinclos。在我們今天開始之前，讓我提請您注意我們的警告聲明。

During today's presentation, we will make forward-looking statements, including those that refer to our estimates, plans and expectations. Actual results and outcomes could differ materially due to the factors we note on this slide and in our U.K. and SEC filings. Please refer to our annual report, stock exchange announcement and SEC filings for more details. These documents are available on our website.

在今天的演講中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，包括那些涉及我們的估計、計劃和預期的陳述。由於我們在這張幻燈片以及我們在英國和美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的因素，實際結果和結果可能存在重大差異。請參閱我們的年度報告、證券交易所公告和美國證券交易委員會文件了解更多詳情。這些文件可在我們的網站上找到。

I'll now hand over to Bernard.

我現在將交給伯納德。

Thanks, Craig. Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us.

謝謝，克雷格。大家好，感謝您加入我們。

As everyone is aware, we are reporting today against the backdrop of Russia's attack on Ukraine and the terrible consequences it is having for people in the country and in the region. At BP, we have been supporting the humanitarian response through a financial contribution to the relief efforts, matching of employee donations by the BP Foundation and paid leave for BP staff who wish to volunteer to support the relief effort. And as we know, the war is also having an impact globally on energy markets and the cost of living, creating a terrible situation for many people around the world. We are looking at what we can do to provide support while also remaining fully focused on the day job, which, at its core, is about keeping the energy flowing where it is needed.

眾所周知，我們今天在俄羅斯襲擊烏克蘭及其對該國和該地區人民造成的可怕後果的背景下進行報導。在 BP，我們一直通過為救援工作提供財政捐助、匹配 BP 基金會的員工捐款以及為希望自願支持救援工作的 BP 員工提供帶薪休假來支持人道主義響應。正如我們所知，戰爭也在全球範圍內對能源市場和生活成本產生影響，給世界各地的許多人造成了可怕的局面。我們正在研究我們可以做些什麼來提供支持，同時完全專注於日常工作，其核心是保持能量在需要的地方流動。

To that end, we are in close contact with governments in Europe, working hard to provide the energy that customers and economies need. On the 27th of February, we took the decision to exit our 19.75% shareholding in Rosneft. In addition, we plan to exit all our other businesses in Russia. The Board undertook a thorough process, concluding that Russia's military action represented a fundamental change and that BP's involvement with Rosneft, a state-owned enterprise, simply could not continue. This decision impacts our people. Before the conflict, we had around 200 employees in Russia, the majority Russian nationals. We are doing all we can to look after them, including continuing to pay their wages until at least the end of 2022 and looking at options for redeployment.

為此，我們與歐洲各國政府保持密切聯繫，努力提供客戶和經濟體所需的能源。 2 月 27 日，我們決定退出我們在俄羅斯石油公司 19.75% 的股權。此外，我們計劃退出我們在俄羅斯的所有其他業務。董事會進行了徹底的處理，得出的結論是，俄羅斯的軍事行動代表了根本性的變化，BP 與國有企業俄羅斯石油公司的合作根本無法繼續。這一決定影響了我們的員工。衝突前，我們在俄羅斯有大約 200 名員工，其中大部分是俄羅斯國民。我們正在盡我們所能照顧他們，包括繼續支付他們的工資，至少到 2022 年底，並尋找重新部署的選擇。

And of course, this decision has a financial impact. With today's first quarter results, we have taken a material noncash charge and, as a result, have reported a significant headline loss this quarter. Murray will talk to this shortly. However, the underlying business continues to perform. Importantly, we have accommodated the loss of future Rosneft dividends within our resilient financial frame, which remains unchanged as does our strategy.

當然，這個決定會產生財務影響。根據今天的第一季度業績，我們收取了重大的非現金費用，因此，本季度報告了重大的整體虧損。默里很快就會談到這一點。然而，基礎業務繼續表現良好。重要的是，我們已經在我們有彈性的財務框架內彌補了未來俄羅斯石油公司股息的損失，這與我們的戰略一樣保持不變。

Now turning to BP's strategy. Current events emphasize that the world faces an energy trilemma. We need energy that is not only cleaner but also reliable and affordable. And in our view, these are not mutually exclusive. This is exactly why we outlined our strategy in 2020 to become an integrated energy company to deliver resilient hydrocarbons to provide energy security today while, at the same time, investing at scale to accelerate the energy system of the future.

現在轉向 BP 的戰略。時事強調，世界面臨能源三難困境。我們需要的能源不僅更清潔，而且可靠且價格合理。在我們看來，這些並不是相互排斥的。這正是為什麼我們在 2020 年概述了我們的戰略，即成為一家綜合能源公司，提供彈性碳氫化合物以提供當今的能源安全，同時大規模投資以加速未來的能源系統。

We have been delivering step-by-step ever since, and as you can see from the slide, we have made a strong start to 2022 in each of our strategic focus areas.

從那以後，我們一直在逐步交付，正如您從幻燈片中看到的那樣，我們在每個戰略重點領域都在 2022 年取得了良好的開端。

In resilient hydrocarbons, we have started up the high-margin Herschel Expansion major project in the Gulf of Mexico. We signed an innovative deal to combine our Angolan assets with those of Eni through the creation of Azul Energy, bringing the potential for more efficient operations and increased investment. We partnered in an oil discovery in Brazil, where evaluation is ongoing; signed an 18-year agreement with KOGAS to supply around 1.6 million tonnes of LNG per year from 2025; and advanced our strategic ambitions in biofuels, starting production of SAF at our Lingen refinery.

在彈性碳氫化合物方面，我們已在墨西哥灣啟動了高利潤的 Herschel Expansion 大型項目。我們簽署了一項創新協議，通過創建 Azul Energy 將我們的安哥拉資產與 Eni 的資產相結合，從而帶來更高效運營和增加投資的潛力。我們在巴西的石油發現中進行了合作，評估正在進行中；與KOGAS簽署為期18年的協議，從2025年起每年供應約160萬噸液化天然氣；並推進我們在生物燃料方面的戰略雄心，開始在我們的林根煉油廠生產 SAF。

In convenience and mobility, we are making rapid progress executing our strategy. Here, we have advanced our EV charging strategy, launching a strategic partnership with Volkswagen Group to roll out an EV fast-charging network in Europe and the U.K. and announcing plans to invest GBP 1 billion over the next decade to support the rollout of fast, convenient charging infrastructure across the United Kingdom. We signed a strategic collaboration agreement with DHL Express to supply SAF and signed a global strategic convenience partnership with Uber, aiming to make more than 3,000 retail locations available on Uber Eats by 2025.

在便利性和移動性方面，我們正在快速執行我們的戰略。在這裡，我們推進了電動汽車充電戰略，與大眾汽車集團建立戰略合作夥伴關係，在歐洲和英國推出電動汽車快速充電網絡，並宣布計劃在未來十年投資 10 億英鎊，以支持快速、便利的充電基礎設施遍布英國。我們與 DHL Express 簽署了戰略合作協議，為 SAF 供貨，並與 Uber 簽署了全球戰略便利合作夥伴關係，旨在到 2025 年在 Uber Eats 上提供 3,000 多個零售點。

In low carbon energy, we are excited to welcome our new EVP, Anja Dotzenrath, as we continue to focus on building scale with capital discipline. Since the start of the year, we have increased our position in offshore wind with the ScotWind lease option award of around 1.5 gigawatts net. We've announced an agreement to form an offshore wind partnership with Marubeni in Japan, announced plans for a 250-megawatt green hydrogen project in Rotterdam and signed an agreement to form a joint venture with Aberdeen City Council to develop a hydrogen hub.

在低碳能源方面，我們很高興歡迎我們的新執行副總裁 Anja Dotzenrath，因為我們將繼續專注於通過資本紀律建立規模。自今年年初以來，我們增加了我們在海上風電領域的地位，ScotWind 租賃選擇權淨額約為 1.5 吉瓦。我們宣布了與日本丸紅公司建立海上風電合作夥伴關係的協議，宣布了在鹿特丹建設 250 兆瓦綠色氫項目的計劃，並與阿伯丁市議會簽署了一項協議，成立合資企業以開發氫能樞紐。

As you can see, we have real momentum. We are executing our strategy, delivering real progress across our 5 transition growth engines, EV charging, convenience, bioenergy, renewables and hydrogen, as we transform to an integrated energy company.

正如你所看到的，我們有真正的動力。我們正在執行我們的戰略，在我們向綜合能源公司轉型的過程中，在電動汽車充電、便利性、生物能源、可再生能源和氫能這五個轉型增長引擎方面取得了真正的進展。

Let me now hand over to Murray, who will run through our first quarter results. Murray?

現在讓我交給默里，他將介紹我們的第一季度業績。穆雷？

Thanks, Bernard, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with the macro environment, turning first to the oil price.

謝謝，伯納德，大家早上好。讓我從宏觀環境說起，首先談談油價。

Against the backdrop of reduced levels of spare capacity, Russia's attack on Ukraine added to the upward pressure on prices. This reflects both an increased risk premium and the impact of sanctions and self-sanctioning by market participants. In early March, Brent reached its highest level for almost 14 years. And in the first quarter, Brent averaged $102 per barrel, 28% above the fourth quarter.

在閒置產能減少的背景下，俄羅斯對烏克蘭的進攻加劇了價格的上行壓力。這既反映了風險溢價的增加，也反映了市場參與者制裁和自我制裁的影響。 3月初，布倫特原油達到近14年來的最高水平。第一季度，布倫特原油平均價格為每桶 102 美元，比第四季度高出 28%。

Looking ahead, there remains an elevated risk of price volatility. This reflects uncertainties around the level of disruption to Russian supply, the capacity for increased OPEC+ supply, the ongoing impact of COVID on demand and the impact of the war on economic growth.

展望未來，價格波動的風險仍然較高。這反映了俄羅斯供應中斷程度、歐佩克+供應增加的能力、COVID對需求的持續影響以及戰爭對經濟增長的影響等方面的不確定性。

Moving to gas markets. Heightened concern on supply risk drove an increase in quarter average prices in Europe. Forward prices also moved higher, and the outlook in the short term remains heavily dependent on Russian pipeline flows to Europe. Quarter average spot prices in the U.S. were broadly flat, but forward prices moved higher as gas production remained below 2021 peaks and LNG export demand grew.

轉向天然氣市場。對供應風險的擔憂加劇推動了歐洲季度平均價格的上漲。遠期價格也走高，短期前景仍嚴重依賴俄羅斯流向歐洲的管道。美國季度平均現貨價格基本持平，但由於天然氣產量仍低於 2021 年峰值且液化天然氣出口需求增長，遠期價格走高。

Finally, refining, where industry margins have increased sharply since the invasion. BP's RMM rose by 25% to average $18.90 per barrel in the first quarter and currently stands significantly above this. This move has been driven by a particularly tight oil products market. OECD product stocks in February were 9% below their 5-year average. In the second quarter, we expect industry refining margins to remain elevated due to ongoing supply disruptions, particularly in Russia and Europe.

最後是煉油，自入侵以來，該行業的利潤率急劇上升。 BP 的 RMM 在第一季度上漲了 25% 至平均每桶 18.90 美元，目前遠高於此水平。這一舉措是由特別緻密的石油產品市場推動的。 2 月份經合組織產品庫存比 5 年平均水平低 9%。在第二季度，由於持續的供應中斷，我們預計行業煉油利潤率將保持較高水平，尤其是在俄羅斯和歐洲。

Turning to the impact of BP's decision to exit its businesses in Russia. With BP's 2 nominated directors having stepped down from the Rosneft Board as of the 27th of February, BP no longer equity accounts for its shareholding and will no longer report Rosneft as a separate segment.

談到 BP 決定退出俄羅斯業務的影響。由於 BP 的 2 名提名董事已於 2 月 27 日從 Rosneft 董事會卸任，BP 不再將其股權計入股權，也不再將 Rosneft 作為一個單獨的部門報告。

This change has resulted in a net pretax charge of $24 billion with today's results, classified as an adjusting item. This comprises, first, a pretax impairment charge of $13.5 billion, representing the full carrying value of the Rosneft stake at the 27th of February. The level of uncertainty as to the value of the shareholding means that, under IFRS, it is not currently possible to estimate any value other than 0. Second, a pretax charge of $11.1 billion, principally due to foreign exchange losses accumulated from the date of the initial investment to the 27th of February. Of this, around $1.4 billion has an incremental impact on equity. And third, an offset of around $500 million representing BP share of Rosneft's posttax income in the first quarter until the 27th of February.

這一變化導致在今天的結果中淨稅前費用為 240 億美元，被歸類為調整項目。首先，這包括 135 億美元的稅前減值費用，相當於 2 月 27 日俄羅斯石油公司股份的全部賬面價值。股權價值的不確定性意味著，根據國際財務報告準則，目前無法估計除 0 以外的任何價值。其次，111 億美元的稅前費用，主要是由於自初始投資至2月27日。其中，約 14 億美元對股權產生了增量影響。第三，在截至 2 月 27 日的第一季度，BP 在 Rosneft 稅後收入中的份額約為 5 億美元。

In addition, BP's decision to exit its other businesses with Rosneft in Russia has resulted in a pretax charge of $1.5 billion, which includes the full carrying value of those businesses. This is also recorded as an adjusting item. And finally, adjusting items include the release of a $1.1 billion deferred tax liability relating to Russian withholding tax on BP's estimated share of Rosneft's undistributed profit.

此外，BP 決定退出與俄羅斯石油公司在俄羅斯的其他業務，導致稅前費用為 15 億美元，其中包括這些業務的全部賬面價值。這也被記錄為調整項目。最後，調整項目包括釋放 11 億美元的遞延所得稅負債，該負債與 BP 對 Rosneft 未分配利潤的估計份額有關的俄羅斯預扣稅。

Taken together, these adjusting items resulted a posttax charge of $24.4 billion and a total reduction in equity of $14.7 billion in the first quarter. As disclosed in BP's 2021 annual report, the exclusion of BP's share of Rosneft net income from BP's underlying result has increased our expected underlying effective tax rate for 2022 to around 40%.

總而言之，這些調整項目導致第一季度稅後費用為 244 億美元，股本總額減少 147 億美元。正如 BP 的 2021 年年度報告所披露的，從 BP 的基本業績中排除 BP 在 Rosneft 淨收入中的份額，使我們預期的 2022 年基本有效稅率提高到 40% 左右。

Looking further ahead, on the 27th of February, we indicated that, as a result of no longer equity accounting for our interest in Rosneft, the expected loss of future earnings from Rosneft have lowered our 2025 EBITDA targets for resilient hydrocarbons and the group by around $2 billion. We have also lowered our respective 2030 EBITDA aims by the same amount. However, excluding Rosneft and our other Russian businesses from both base years and future periods, we continue to expect to sustain EBITDA from resilient hydrocarbons around 2021 levels through 2025, aim to hold around this level through 2030 at constant real price assumptions and expect to deliver a 7% to 9% EBITDA per share CAGR between 2H '19 and 1H '20 and 2025 at $50 to $60 per barrel 2020 real.

展望未來，2 月 27 日，我們表示，由於不再對我們在 Rosneft 的權益進行股權核算，Rosneft 未來收益的預期損失已將我們 2025 年彈性碳氫化合物和集團的 EBITDA 目標降低了約20億美元。我們還將各自的 2030 年 EBITDA 目標降低了相同的數量。但是，不包括 Rosneft 和我們在基準年和未來期間的其他俄羅斯業務，我們繼續預計到 2025 年將彈性碳氫化合物的 EBITDA 維持在 2021 年左右的水平，目標是在 2030 年以不變的實際價格假設保持在這一水平，並期望實現在 2019 年 2 月至 20 年 1 月和 2025 年之間，每股 EBITDA 的複合年增長率為 7% 至 9%，2020 年實際每桶 50 至 60 美元。

Our target to grow group per ROACE to 12% to 14% by 2025 and the aim of $9 billion to $10 billion of EBITDA from transition growth businesses by 2030 are also unchanged. And we have accommodated the expected loss of future Rosneft dividends within our resilient financial frame, with our 5 priorities remaining unchanged. This includes our guidance on distributions and capital investment.

我們的目標是到 2025 年將每個 ROACE 的集團增長到 12% 到 14%，以及到 2030 年從轉型增長業務中實現 90 億美元到 100 億美元的 EBITDA 的目標也沒有改變。我們已經在我們有彈性的財務框架內適應了未來 Rosneft 股息的預期損失，我們的 5 個優先事項保持不變。這包括我們對分配和資本投資的指導。

Finally, in the appendix to this presentation, we have updated some of the key slides presented on February 8 to reflect the exclusion of Rosneft and our other Russian businesses.

最後，在本演示文稿的附錄中，我們更新了 2 月 8 日展示的一些關鍵幻燈片，以反映 Rosneft 和我們其他俄羅斯企業的排除情況。

Moving to results. In the first quarter, we reported an IFRS loss of $20.4 billion. This included pretax adjusting items of $30.8 billion, primarily relating to our investments in Russia. Excluding adjusting items, we reported an underlying replacement cost profit of $6.2 billion compared to $4.1 billion last quarter.

轉向結果。在第一季度，我們報告了 204 億美元的 IFRS 虧損。這包括 308 億美元的稅前調整項目，主要與我們在俄羅斯的投資有關。不計調整項目，我們報告的基本重置成本利潤為 62 億美元，而上一季度為 41 億美元。

Turning to business group performance compared to the fourth quarter. In gas and low carbon energy, the result benefited from higher realizations and an exceptional gas marketing and trading result.

轉向與第四季度相比的業務集團業績。在天然氣和低碳能源方面，該結果得益於更高的實現和卓越的天然氣營銷和交易結果。

In oil production and operations, the result reflects higher realizations despite the impact of price lags in the Gulf of Mexico and the UAE. This was partly offset by the impact of lower production.

在石油生產和運營方面，儘管受到墨西哥灣和阿聯酋價格滯後的影響，但結果反映了更高的實現。這部分被產量下降的影響所抵消。

In customers and products, the products result benefited from exceptional oil trading and a stronger refining result. The customer's result was resilient despite seasonality, ongoing COVID impacts, notably in Germany and China, and lower margins due to rising commodity prices.

在客戶和產品方面，產品業績得益於出色的石油交易和更強勁的煉油業績。儘管存在季節性、持續的 COVID 影響（尤其是在德國和中國）以及由於商品價格上漲導致的利潤率下降，但客戶的業績仍具有彈性。

Looking ahead, there is an elevated level of uncertainty due to the developing impacts from the conflict in Ukraine and ongoing COVID-19 restrictions.

展望未來，由於烏克蘭衝突的發展影響和持續的 COVID-19 限制，不確定性水平升高。

For the first quarter, BP has announced a dividend of $0.0546 per ordinary share payable in the second quarter.

對於第一季度，BP 宣佈在第二季度支付每股普通股 0.0546 美元的股息。

Turning to cash flow. Operating cash flow was $8.2 billion in the first quarter. This included a working capital build of $4.1 billion after adjusting for inventory holding gains and fair value accounting effects. Capital expenditure was $2.9 billion, with our guidance for 2022 remaining in the range of $14 billion to $15 billion. And disposal proceeds were $1.2 billion, with guidance of $2 billion to $3 billion in 2022, also unchanged.

轉向現金流。第一季度的經營現金流為 82 億美元。這包括在調整庫存持有收益和公允價值會計影響後增加了 41 億美元的營運資金。資本支出為 29 億美元，我們對 2022 年的指導保持在 140 億美元至 150 億美元之間。處置收益為 12 億美元，2022 年的指導為 20 億至 30 億美元，也沒有變化。

During the quarter, we repurchased $1.6 billion of shares. This included $500 million to offset the expected full year dilution from vesting of employee share awards in 2022 and $1.1 billion of the $1.5 billion program announced with fourth quarter results. This program was completed on April 27.

本季度，我們回購了 16 億美元的股票。這包括 5 億美元用於抵消 2022 年員工股票獎勵歸屬的預期全年稀釋，以及隨第四季度業績公佈的 15 億美元計劃中的 11 億美元。該計劃於 4 月 27 日完成。

Reflecting the strong underlying cash flow delivery, net debt fell for the eighth consecutive quarter to reach $27.5 billion. And with first quarter surplus cash flow of $4.1 billion, we intend to execute a buyback of $2.5 billion prior to reporting second quarter results.

反映強勁的基本現金流交付，淨債務連續第八個季度下降至 275 億美元。由於第一季度的盈餘現金流為 41 億美元，我們打算在報告第二季度業績之前執行 25 億美元的回購。

As already outlined, our financial frame remains unchanged. We continue to believe this disciplined frame provides transparency around our capital allocation plans and serves us well in this volatile price environment. An average 2021 to 2025 cash balance point of around $40 per barrel provides resilience and supports our dividend, balance sheet and investment plans. And a clear CapEx range, including inorganics, together with the framework for distributions, drives investment discipline and provides a transparent mechanism for returning surplus cash flow to investors while also strengthening our balance sheet. We remain committed to allocating 60% of 2022 surplus cash flow to share buybacks, subject to maintaining a strong investment-grade credit rating.

如前所述，我們的財務框架保持不變。我們仍然相信，這種嚴格的框架為我們的資本分配計劃提供了透明度，並在這種波動的價格環境中為我們提供了良好的服務。 2021 年至 2025 年的平均現金平衡點約為每桶 40 美元，可提供彈性並支持我們的股息、資產負債表和投資計劃。清晰的資本支出範圍（包括無機物）以及分配框架推動了投資紀律，並提供了一種透明的機制，可以將剩餘現金流返還給投資者，同時也加強了我們的資產負債表。我們仍致力於將 2022 年盈餘現金流的 60% 用於股票回購，前提是維持強勁的投資級信用評級。

I'll now hand back to Bernard to conclude today's presentation.

我現在請伯納德結束今天的演講。

Thanks, Murray. To summarize, against an uncertain backdrop, we are working hard to provide the energy that customers and economies need. At the same time, we are steadfast in our focus on delivery, on performing while progressing our transformation to an IEC, all in service of delivering long-term value for our shareholders.

謝謝，默里。總而言之，在不確定的背景下，我們正在努力提供客戶和經濟體所需的能源。同時，我們堅定不移地專注於交付，在推進我們向 IEC 轉型的同時，為我們的股東提供長期價值。

We should stop here now and take any questions that you might have.

我們現在應該停下來回答你可能有的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Okay. Thank you, everybody, again for listening. We're going to turn to Q&A now. We are going to try and keep this tight and look to finish on the hour. (Operator Instructions)

好的。謝謝大家，再次聆聽。我們現在要轉向問答環節。我們將努力保持這一點，並希望在小時內完成。 （操作員說明）

On that note, we're going to take the first question from Christyan Malek at JPMorgan. Christyan, do we have you?

關於這一點，我們將回答摩根大通的 Christyan Malek 提出的第一個問題。克里斯蒂安，我們有你嗎？

Christyan. Yes, sorry, can you hear me?

克里斯蒂安。是的，對不起，你能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes, we can. Thanks.

我們可以。謝謝。

So congratulations on the results. First question, just -- I think stick to one question, is your macro outlook and just in the context of your long-run (inaudible). I know 2 years ago, you talked about sort of more sort of bearish for longer view. And within that context, I wanted to get an update on your macro outlook.

所以祝賀你的結果。第一個問題，我認為堅持一個問題，是您的宏觀前景，並且只是在您的長期（聽不清）的背景下。我知道 2 年前，你談到了某種更看跌的長期觀點。在這種情況下，我想了解一下您的宏觀前景。

Very good, Christyan. It sounds like you're traveling. Hope all is well. On the macro outlook, if we talk kind of oil and gas prices, in general, I think there's probably about 1 million barrels a day we would estimate off the market today of Russian crude. That number, we think, will probably increase this month when the existing sanctions come into effect. For real, that number could double. And obviously, if there's further sanctions, we shall see.

很好，克里斯蒂安。聽起來你在旅行。希望一切順利。關於宏觀前景，如果我們談論石油和天然氣價格，總的來說，我認為我們估計今天俄羅斯原油市場上每天可能有大約 100 萬桶。我們認為，當現有製裁生效時，這個數字可能會在本月增加。事實上，這個數字可能會翻倍。顯然，如果有進一步的製裁，我們將拭目以待。

As we step back, I mean, I think, stocks are relatively low on gas and oil at the moment, filling a bit in Europe, but on gas, but relatively low overall. Spare capacity in oil, I think, is relatively low. And of course, a lot of uncertainty out there at the moment. A lot of uncertainty, whether it be what's going to happen with Iran, the zero-COVID policy in China, what's happening with inflation and the knock-on impacts on global economic growth, what's going to happen in Libya, what's going to happen with U.S. shale. So a lot of uncertainties.

當我們退後一步時，我的意思是，我認為，目前天然氣和石油的庫存相對較低，在歐洲有點填充，但在天然氣方面，但總體而言相對較低。我認為，石油的備用產能相對較低。當然，目前還有很多不確定性。很多不確定性，無論是伊朗會發生什麼，中國的零新冠病毒政策，通貨膨脹會發生什麼以及對全球經濟增長的連鎖影響，利比亞會發生什麼，未來會發生什麼美國頁岩。所以有很多不確定性。

I think where does that leave us, I think, probably in a world where volatility will continue to be the order of the day. So I think we expect a continued volatile outlook for energy prices, and we probably expect prices to remain strong in the near to medium term.

我認為，在一個波動性將繼續成為主流的世界中，這會給我們帶來什麼影響。因此，我認為我們預計能源價格前景將繼續波動，我們可能預計價格在中短期內將保持強勁。

In terms of updating our assumptions, we do that on an annual basis. We'll be doing that, Murray, in the middle of the year. And I think it's best that we come back to you then with how, if at all, this current environment has shifted our medium- and longer-term outlook. So we'll come back to that in the middle of the year.

在更新我們的假設方面，我們每年都會這樣做。默里，我們將在年中這樣做。我認為我們最好再回到你身邊，告訴你當前的環境如何改變了我們的中長期前景。所以我們會在年中回到這個話題。

Sure. And just to sort of follow-up, and I guess the backdrop to the question was around your capital framing whether we could see a higher allocation towards particularly oil investing and around shale, if it were to prove that we're in a more higher for longer environment. So an event that we see as sort of reframing around the long-run outlook, could we expect you to sort of allocate what sort of shift investments and potentially slow down renewable? Or is it very much a sort of business as usual, no fundamental change just relative to sort of 2-year sort of -- 2 years ago when you were sort of framing your macro outlook (inaudible)?

當然。只是為了跟進，我想這個問題的背景是圍繞你的資本框架，如果要證明我們處於更高的水平，我們是否可以看到對特別是石油投資和頁岩的更高配置對於更長的環境。因此，我們認為這是圍繞長期前景重新構建的事件，我們能否期望您分配什麼樣的輪班投資並可能減緩可再生能源的發展？或者它是一種像往常一樣的業務，只是相對於 2 年的那種沒有根本性的變化——2 年前，當你在某種程度上製定你的宏觀前景時（聽不清）？

I think one of the good things that we have is our financial frame is very clear, and it's been very consistent. I think discipline is the order of the day. We'll spend between $14 billion and $15 billion on capital investment this year. Our medium-term guidance around capital is $14 billion to $16 billion. There's no change to that. We're going to continue to invest in the hydrocarbons that the world needs today, and we're going to continue to increasingly invest in advancing the energy transition, which is also what the world needs. So no change to our plans, staying with the plan that we have, discipline being the important order of the day.

我認為我們擁有的一件好事是我們的財務框架非常清晰，而且非常一致。我認為紀律是當務之急。今年我們將在資本投資上花費 140 億至 150 億美元。我們圍繞資本的中期指導為 140 億至 160 億美元。沒有任何改變。我們將繼續投資於當今世界所需的碳氫化合物，我們將繼續加大對推進能源轉型的投資，這也是世界所需要的。所以不要改變我們的計劃，堅持我們現有的計劃，紀律是當天的重要順序。

Thanks, Christyan. We'll take the next question from Biraj Borkhataria at RBC.

謝謝，克里斯蒂安。我們將回答 RBC 的 Biraj Borkhataria 的下一個問題。

The first one is, hopefully, a straightforward one, but just looking at the differential cash tax versus P&L. Obviously, I'm assuming this is just a lag in terms of the rate at which commodity prices increases are flowing through to cash tax. But is there any reason why in a, let's say, a steady-state commodity price environment, that wouldn't sort of normalize as we move through the year?

第一個是，希望，一個簡單的，但只是看看差異現金稅與損益。顯然，我假設這只是商品價格上漲流入現金稅的速度方面的滯後。但是，在一個穩定的大宗商品價格環境中，有什麼理由不會隨著我們這一年的到來而正常化嗎？

And then second question is just following up on the last one. You referenced the energy trilemma. I'm just thinking, as you're moving away from sort of crisis management to thinking about the longer-term or medium-term strategy, you put the press release out today on the U.K. investments. Presumably, other governments and stakeholders are probably asking you to do more, but you're sticking with the current capital framework over the medium term. If you're spending more to accelerate the transition, where is that capital coming from? Or where are you sort of slowing down or doing less?

然後第二個問題只是跟進最後一個問題。你提到了能源三難困境。我只是在想，當你從某種危機管理轉向考慮長期或中期戰略時，你今天發布了關於英國投資的新聞稿。據推測，其他政府和利益相關者可能會要求您做更多的事情，但您在中期堅持當前的資本框架。如果你花更多的錢來加速轉型，那麼這些資金來自哪裡？或者你在哪裡放慢速度或少做事？

Biraj, thank you. Murray, tax, your favorite subject from your previous life, I think.

比拉傑，謝謝。默里，稅收，你前世最喜歡的科目，我想。

Thanks, Bernard. I still try to deny that. Biraj, on effective rate and cash tax rate, on an underlying basis, you saw that our effective rate was 32%. Our cash tax was a little bit lower than that as it normally is. I wouldn't look at the headline rates. They're pretty tricky given the scale of the impairment that we saw this quarter.

謝謝，伯納德。我仍然試圖否認這一點。 Biraj，關於有效稅率和現金稅率，在基礎基礎上，您看到我們的有效稅率為 32%。我們的現金稅比平時低一點。我不會看標題利率。考慮到我們本季度看到的減值規模，它們非常棘手。

So you would expect ETR and CTR to close over time, maybe the cash tax rate is a little bit lower through cycle. So I would anticipate that 40% effective tax rate that we talked about on an underlying basis. Cash tax, slightly less than that. And of course, any one quarter can deviate from that really based on mix of profits, and that's what you saw in the first quarter was a mix of profits.

因此，您會期望 ETR 和 CTR 會隨著時間的推移而關閉，也許現金稅率在整個週期中會稍微低一些。因此，我預計我們在基本基礎上談到的 40% 的有效稅率。現金稅，略低於那個。當然，任何一個季度都可能偏離真正基於利潤組合的結果，這就是你在第一季度看到的利潤組合。

Very good. So Biraj, thank you for the question. I think stepping back, let's just think about our strategy as an integrated energy company. And as you said, its purpose, and we actually said this 2 years ago. We're not just saying it now. Its role in life, its purpose is to solve the energy trilemma. Yes, the world needs cleaner energy, but it also needs energy that's reliable or secure, and it needs energy that is affordable. That is the energy trilemma, and the role of an integrated energy company is to solve that trilemma.

很好。 Biraj，謝謝你的提問。我想退後一步，讓我們想想我們作為一家綜合能源公司的戰略。正如你所說，它的目的，我們實際上在 2 年前就說過了。我們現在不只是說。它在生活中的作用，其目的是解決能源三難。是的，世界需要更清潔的能源，但它也需要可靠或安全的能源，它需要負擔得起的能源。這就是能源三難困境，綜合能源公司的作用就是解決這個三難困境。

Now how do we do that? We do that by investing in hydrocarbons today, and you see us doing that with the majority of our investment today going into hydrocarbons. And we do that at the same time, not or, at the same time, by investing in accelerating that energy transition. And we invested probably about 3% of our capital in 2019 in nonhydrocarbons by 2025, which is just a few years away. Over 40% of our capital will go into nonhydrocarbons, and that number will be 50% by 2030.

現在我們該怎麼做呢？我們今天通過投資碳氫化合物來做到這一點，您會看到我們今天的大部分投資都用於碳氫化合物。我們同時做到這一點，而不是同時，通過投資加速能源轉型。到 2025 年，我們在 2019 年可能將大約 3% 的資本投資於非碳氫化合物，而這距離我們只有幾年的時間。我們超過 40% 的資本將用於非碳氫化合物，到 2030 年這一數字將達到 50%。

The increase that you referred to in the U.K., the GBP 18 billion in the U.K., that is part of the financial framework that we have laid out. We have said within that, that we're increasing investment in the U.K. From what has historically been 10% to 15% of our capital will now go up through this decade to 15% to 20% of our capital. And that's because the policies are in place here in Britain to support that. The resources, be they hydrocarbon resources or low carbon resources, are here to enable us to do that. And the skills and the education system is here to enable us to do that.

你在英國提到的增長，英國的 180 億英鎊，這是我們制定的金融框架的一部分。我們在其中說過，我們正在增加對英國的投資。從歷史上占我們資本的 10% 到 15%，現在將在這十年中上升到我們資本的 15% 到 20%。那是因為英國有政策支持這一點。資源，無論是碳氫化合物資源還是低碳資源，都是為了讓我們能夠做到這一點。技能和教育系統可以讓我們做到這一點。

So in many ways, what you see in the U.K., Biraj, is a microcosm of the integrated energy strategy overall, and you're seeing it on a national or a country level: investing in hydrocarbons, like we will do in the North Sea today, bringing on a new development like we're doing at Murlach and, at the same time, investing in the energy transition system of the future; investing in offshore wind; investing in hydrogen; investing in solar; investing GBP 1 billion in electrification. So part of our plan and the increase that you're seeing is an increase in the weighting of capital in the U.K. from 10% to 15% to 15% to 20%. Hopefully, that helps.

所以在很多方面，你在英國比拉傑看到的是整體綜合能源戰略的縮影，你在國家或國家層面看到它：投資碳氫化合物，就像我們將在北海做的那樣今天，像我們在 Murlach 所做的那樣帶來新的發展，同時投資於未來的能源轉型系統；投資海上風電；投資氫；投資太陽能；投資 10 億英鎊用於電氣化。因此，我們計劃的一部分以及您所看到的增長是將英國的資本權重從 10% 增加到 15% 到 15% 到 20%。希望這會有所幫助。

Biraj, thanks for your question. We'll take the next question from Martijn Rats at Morgan Stanley.

Biraj，謝謝你的提問。我們將回答摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats 的下一個問題。

I've got 2 questions, if I may? First of all, I was hoping you could elaborate a little bit on the comments around sort of tightness in product markets. It strikes me as very clear, all the product prices are extremely high. But I was wondering how you see that developing sort of going forward. How much slack do you think there still is in the global refining system? Are BP's refineries by now running at maximum capacity? I think that's an important question. So your perspective on that issue.

我有2個問題，可以嗎？首先，我希望您能詳細說明有關產品市場緊張的評論。我很清楚，所有產品的價格都非常高。但我想知道你是如何看待這種發展的。您認為全球煉油系統還有多少鬆懈？ BP 的煉油廠現在是否以最大產能運行？我認為這是一個重要的問題。所以你對這個問題的看法。

And then secondly, perhaps, this is -- perhaps, your answer is going to be, well, this is more for full year results and for 4Q results, but I'm going to ask a question nonetheless. The combined share buybacks that you've now announced for the first half of the year are sort of in the order of $4 billion. The market cap of BP is about $100 billion, so you can buy back 4% of the shares. With 4% of the shares, you've effectively neutralized the 4% DPS growth that you've guided for. So if there are incremental buybacks in the second half, if you stick to this 4% dividend growth guidance, actually, the total dividend that the company distributes in absolute billions of dollars, which actually sort of start to shrink. And I was wondering if that is sort of the message that you want to send or whether perhaps this 4% DPS growth guidance could, at some point, be reconsidered, and I'd be interested in your thoughts about that, too.

其次，也許，這是-也許，你的答案將是，嗯，這更適用於全年業績和第四季度業績，但我還是要問一個問題。您現在宣布的上半年股票回購總額約為 40 億美元。 BP的市值約為1000億美元，因此可以回購4%的股份。有了 4% 的份額，你就有效地抵消了你所指導的 4% 的 DPS 增長。因此，如果下半年有增量回購，如果你堅持這個 4% 的股息增長指導，實際上，公司分配的總股息絕對是數十億美元，實際上開始縮減。我想知道這是否是你想要傳達的信息，或者這個 4% DPS 增長指導是否可以在某個時候重新考慮，我也會對你的想法感興趣。

Very good. Martijn, why don't I let Murray answer the dividend question?

很好。 Martijn，我為什麼不讓 Murray 回答股息問題？

Yes, Thanks. Thanks, Martijn. Financial frame's intact. Guidance around it's intact. Martijn, it doesn't change until it changes. We have the capacity to grow the dividend, which is our first priority at 4% per annum out to 2025, assuming a $60 world. And of course, on buybacks, we have the capacity to do $4 billion a year at $60 as well through 2025.

是啊謝謝。謝謝，馬丁。財務框架完好無損。周圍的指導完好無損。 Martijn，它不會改變，直到它改變。我們有能力增加股息，這是我們的首要任務，到 2025 年每年 4%，假設世界為 60 美元。當然，在回購方面，我們有能力以每年 60 美元的價格回購 40 億美元，到 2025 年也是如此。

That guidance remains unchanged for now. And each quarter, we'll revisit the guidance and decide what we do. But you are correct, we are buying back substantial shares right now. So well, that will be something for the Board to contemplate each quarter as it thinks about the financial frame.

該指導目前保持不變。每個季度，我們都會重新審視指導並決定我們要做什麼。但你是對的，我們現在正在回購大量股票。好吧，這將是董事會在考慮財務框架時每個季度都需要考慮的事情。

Martijn, thank you. On products, I think what you're seeing is that the system in the West, the refining system in the West is sort of running flat out. The spare capacity that is in the global system is largely now in the East. BP's refineries are running pretty much flat out at the moment where they can, and we're doing everything that we can to give the market what it needs.

馬丁，謝謝。在產品方面，我認為你所看到的是西方的系統，西方的煉油系統有點耗盡。全球系統中的閒置產能現在主要在東方。 BP 的煉油廠在力所能及的情況下運行得相當平穩，我們正在盡我們所能為市場提供所需的東西。

I think gasoline stocks, jet stocks are relatively low at the moment. Diesel stocks are actually globally in reasonable shape. So there is a strong environment at the moment for refining. I think we saw RMM up around $17. In the first quarter, I think it's running at $37-ish, Murray, today, $37 today. So it is a strong environment. The refineries that we have are running flat out. The majority of the spare capacity in the world is firmly in the East today. So hopefully, that helps Martijn.

我認為汽油庫存，噴氣機庫存目前相對較低。柴油庫存實際上在全球範圍內處於合理狀態。所以現在煉化的環境很強。我認為我們看到 RMM 上漲了 17 美元左右。在第一季度，我認為它的運行價為 37 美元左右，Murray，今天，37 美元。所以這是一個強大的環境。我們擁有的煉油廠正在耗盡。今天，世界上大部分的閒置產能都在東方。因此，希望這對 Martijn 有所幫助。

Thanks, Martijn. We'll take the next question from Lucas Herrmann at Exane BNP.

謝謝，馬丁。我們將回答 Exane BNP 的 Lucas Herrmann 的下一個問題。

Two questions, if I may, both relatively straightforward. Murray, first of all, divestment proceeds from the year, you've done over $1 billion in the first quarter as all should come through, through the course of this year. $2 billion to $3 billion is starting to sound relatively modest, isn't it, if I treat as always been a divestment of the proceeds coming in as being a divestment.

兩個問題，如果可以的話，都比較簡單。默里，首先，從今年的撤資收益中，您在第一季度已經完成了超過 10 億美元的工作，這一切都應該通過今年的過程。 20 億至 30 億美元開始聽起來相對溫和，不是嗎，如果我一如既往地將對所得收益的撤資視為撤資。

And secondly, if I could just ask around the price lags. And not least, what's happening with the U.S. onshore business and the direction of production, which seems to have moderated this quarter, and price realizations, not least on gas, also seem relatively modest. But if you could expand on price lags in the Gulf and why perhaps profits there as well were not as high as one might have anticipated given the macro backlog.

其次，如果我可以詢問價格滯後。尤其重要的是，美國陸上業務和生產方向的情況似乎在本季度有所放緩，而且價格實現，尤其是天然氣，似乎也相對溫和。但是，如果您可以擴大海灣地區的價格滯後，那麼考慮到宏觀積壓，為什麼那裡的利潤也沒有預期的那麼高。

Thanks, Lucas. I'll let Murray take both.

謝謝，盧卡斯。我會讓穆雷兩個都拿走。

Yes. Divestment proceeds, Lucas, the overall frame we talked about is $25 billion out to 2025. I think we've got $14 billion of proceeds so far to date relative to that promise. And you're right regarding -- we're guiding $2 billion to $3 billion a year. We achieved $1.2 billion in the first quarter, which was a good start to the year. We do have other divestments in the hopper. And of course, timing on these things is very tricky to predict.

是的。撤資收益，盧卡斯，我們談到的到 2025 年的總體框架是 250 億美元。我認為到目前為止，相對於該承諾，我們已經獲得了 140 億美元的收益。你是對的——我們每年指導 20 億到 30 億美元。我們在第一季度實現了 12 億美元，這是今年的一個良好開端。我們確實在料斗中進行了其他撤資。當然，這些事情的時機很難預測。

The other thing I'd say is bid-ask spreads are fairly wide right now between buyers and sellers. And so it's taking more time. I do think the 2% to 3% remains good guidance for now. And if you're right and things move faster, then we'll update guidance in due course. But we're just being careful given how long it's taking to close transaction given bid-ask spreads right now.

我要說的另一件事是現在買賣雙方之間的買賣價差相當大。所以它需要更多的時間。我確實認為目前 2% 到 3% 仍然是很好的指導。如果您是對的並且事情進展得更快，那麼我們將在適當的時候更新指導。但鑑於目前的買賣差價，我們只是謹慎考慮完成交易需要多長時間。

I think on price lags, et cetera, you might remember that in the Gulf of Mexico, we price on a lag. It's just custom and practice. So all of our Gulf of Mexico offshore production, the prices it's received are December, January and February. In those months, obviously, there was a big difference between December and March, and that decreases the prices in the quarter by $20, but we obviously picked that up in 2Q as we priced March, April, May. So that's what's happening inside GoM and Abu Dhabi when you look at our realizations.

我認為價格滯後等等，你可能還記得在墨西哥灣，我們定價滯後。這只是習慣和實踐。所以我們所有的墨西哥灣海上生產，它收到的價格是 12 月、1 月和 2 月。顯然，在那幾個月裡，12 月和 3 月之間存在很大差異，這使得該季度的價格降低了 20 美元，但我們顯然在 2 季度獲得了這一點，因為我們對 3 月、4 月、5 月進行了定價。所以當你看到我們的認識時，這就是 GoM 和阿布扎比內部正在發生的事情。

On BPX, it's a little bit difficult to look at those realizations. When you look at BPX liquids, that's both NGLs and oil. So you have to create a melting pot of pricing to understand that. And on the gas side, we obviously hedge the gas side. So that's why you see slightly lower gas prices. I think that covered the questions, Lucas.

在 BPX 上，查看這些實現有點困難。當您查看 BPX 液體時，那是 NGL 和石油。因此，您必須創建一個定價大熔爐才能理解這一點。在燃氣方面，我們顯然對燃氣方面進行了對沖。這就是為什麼您會看到汽油價格略低的原因。我認為這涵蓋了問題，盧卡斯。

Murray, how far out do those hedges run in terms of the gas side? When I look at realized...

默里，這些對沖在天然氣方面有多遠？當我看著意識到...

Generally, we run -- yes, generally, we're running -- yes, sorry, go ahead, Lucas.

通常，我們運行--是的，通常，我們正在運行--是的，對不起，繼續，盧卡斯。

No, I was just going to say, I mean realizations or, rather, headline prices for Q2 are clearly very strong. To what extent has that been ceded via hedging, which is not something I expect you to do, but...

不，我只是想說，我的意思是實現，或者更確切地說，第二季度的標題價格顯然非常強勁。通過對沖讓出到什麼程度，這不是我希望你做的事情，但是......

Yes. We've had a long practice now of hedging BPX when we set it out separately to ensure that we could continue the activity inside the entity. So that's a choice we've made as a corporation. And generally, the hedge window is around 12 to 18 months [window].

是的。當我們單獨列出它以確保我們可以繼續在實體內部進行活動時，我們現在已經有長期的對沖 BPX 實踐。所以這是我們作為一家公司做出的選擇。通常，對沖窗口約為 12 到 18 個月 [窗口]。

And not all the gas is hedged.

並不是所有的天然氣都是對沖的。

And not all the gas is hedged.

並不是所有的天然氣都是對沖的。

Not all the gas is hedged. And on divestments, Lucas, I think the key overall message is we're not in a rush here. We're going to take our time. We're going to be seekers of value. And with prices being where they are today and the outlook being the outlook, that's only going to help our situation going forward when it comes to making sure we get good value for our assets, but there is no rush on these divestments, and that's our guiding purpose there. So thanks, good to hear from you.

並非所有的天然氣都被對沖。關於撤資，盧卡斯，我認為關鍵的總體信息是我們在這裡並不著急。我們要慢慢來。我們將成為價值的追求者。由於價格處於今天的水平，而前景就是前景，這只會有助於我們確保我們的資產獲得良好價值的情況向前發展，但這些撤資並不著急，這就是我們的那裡的指導目的。所以謝謝，很高興收到你的來信。

Thanks, Lucas. We'll take the next question from Irene Himona at Societe Generale.

謝謝，盧卡斯。我們將回答法國興業銀行的 Irene Himona 的下一個問題。

My congratulations on very strong results. My first question of 2 is on Russia. Obviously, BP has been there for decades. You've always presented this as a key strategic region of prolific low-cost resources. Now you're out for reasons essentially beyond control, you retain your financial frame and the guidance. But does the organization perhaps feel that there is a little bit of a gap left in the Upstream portfolio strategically more than financially?

我祝賀非常強的結果。我的第 2 個問題是關於俄羅斯的。顯然，BP 已經存在了幾十年。您一直將其視為多產低成本資源的關鍵戰略區域。現在你因為根本無法控制的原因退出了，你保留了你的財務框架和指導。但是，該組織是否覺得上游投資組合在戰略上比在財務上還存在一點差距？

And my second question on cost inflation. In the U.S., you reported BPX unit production cost, which is up by around 15%, I think, year-on-year. And then you reported BP overall upstream production cost, which is actually down. Can you please talk about the differences you're seeing in cost inflation pressures in U.S. shales versus rest of the world? Obviously, you are seeing more in the U.S. and how you're dealing with this?

我關於成本膨脹的第二個問題。在美國，您報告了 BPX 單位生產成本，我認為同比增長了 15% 左右。然後你報告了 BP 的整體上游生產成本，實際上是下降了。您能否談談您在美國頁岩氣與世界其他地區的成本通脹壓力方面看到的差異？顯然，你在美國看到了更多，你是如何處理這個問題的？

Irene, thank you. Good to hear from you, and I'll let Murray take the question around production cost and inflation.

艾琳，謝謝。很高興收到您的來信，我會讓默里回答有關生產成本和通貨膨脹的問題。

On Russia, just a couple of things I would say. Number one, you said we were out because of reasons outside our control. I guess I would just say that we chose to exit Russia. We chose to exit within 96 hours of the invasion starting. So it was a choice, obviously, and driven by the attack on Ukraine. But at the end of the day, it was a choice that we made. And we made that choice because we believe it's in the -- it was both the right thing to do, and it was the right thing to do for our shareholders.

關於俄羅斯，我只想說幾件事。第一，你說我們出局是因為我們無法控制的原因。我想我只想說我們選擇退出俄羅斯。我們選擇在入侵開始後 96 小時內撤離。因此，很明顯，這是一個選擇，並且受到對烏克蘭的襲擊的推動。但歸根結底，這是我們做出的選擇。我們之所以做出這個選擇，是因為我們相信它在——這既是正確的事情，也是為我們的股東做的正確的事情。

The first quarter results that you see today, Irene, are without Russia's contribution. So you're seeing BP and how it can perform absent Russia. You see a business that, yes, had a good trading performance but also had its highest reliability in many, many years now, which is fantastic, 96.1%. We had our strongest first quarter convenience sales on record. Basket sizes, believe it or not, are up between 20% and 40%. 38%, I think, in Thorntons in the U.S. between now and prepandemic.

你今天看到的第一季度業績，艾琳，沒有俄羅斯的貢獻。所以你看到了 BP 以及它在俄羅斯缺席時的表現。您會看到一家企業，是的，交易表現良好，但現在許多年以來也具有最高的可靠性，這太棒了，達到 96.1%。我們有記錄以來最強勁的第一季度便利店銷售。不管你信不信，籃子的大小增加了 20% 到 40%。從現在到大流行前，我認為在美國的桑頓有 38%。

So you see a company and what it's capable of. And our strategy is to become an integrated energy company. And that is about investing in hydrocarbons today while investing in the energy system of the future, and that's the 5 growth engines that we've laid out. So I don't see a gap in our portfolio at all. And I think I will just leave it there.

因此，您會看到一家公司及其能力。我們的戰略是成為一家綜合能源公司。這就是今天投資碳氫化合物，同時投資未來的能源系統，這就是我們制定的 5 個增長引擎。所以我根本看不出我們的投資組合有差距。我想我會把它留在那裡。

Great. And on cost inflation, Irene, I guess it's a cycle that's very similar to past cycles. The first place inside the portfolio, you see inflation is generally the lower 48, and that's what BPX is seeing, probably around 10% inflation after mitigation on CapEx somewhere between 5% to 8% inflation across a broad range of services on cost. We're not seeing similar levels of inflation outside the U.S. There continues to be excess capacity inside the supply chain. And so we're just not seeing that there.

偉大的。關於成本通脹，艾琳，我想這是一個與過去的周期非常相似的周期。投資組合中的第一位，您會看到通脹率通常是較低的 48，這就是 BPX 所看到的，在資本支出（CapEx）緩解了 5% 到 8% 的通脹率之後，在廣泛的成本服務範圍內，通脹率可能在 10% 左右。我們在美國以外沒有看到類似的通貨膨脹水平。供應鏈內部的產能仍然過剩。所以我們只是沒有看到那裡。

On broad performance, we remain very, very focused on driving cost efficiency into the business through digitization plans that we've often talked about in the past, not only in BPX but in the rest of the portfolio. So we're very focused on it. We believe we need to continue to drive cost and capital efficiency because only 15 months ago, the price of oil was very, very low. So we're just going to continue to focus on that efficiency throughout the business. And as always, BPX is tackling the front end of inflation right now, and they're very, very focused on what they can do to mitigate that. I hope that helps.

在廣泛的表現方面，我們仍然非常非常專注於通過我們過去經常談論的數字化計劃將成本效率提高到業務中，不僅在 BPX 中，而且在其他投資組合中。所以我們非常關注它。我們認為我們需要繼續提高成本和資本效率，因為就在 15 個月前，石油價格還非常非常低。因此，我們將繼續關注整個業務的效率。和往常一樣，BPX 現在正在解決通脹的前端，他們非常非常專注於他們可以做些什麼來緩解這種情況。我希望這會有所幫助。

Thank you, Irene. We'll take the next question from Os Clint at Bernstein, please.

謝謝你，艾琳。請在 Bernstein 的 Os Clint 回答下一個問題。

Obviously, exceptional number. Could you perhaps talk about -- was that all gas? Is there any signs of power trading coming through that number? And I'm really kind of get a sense of whether you're set up appropriately for the rest of the year or in terms of 2022. And just linked to that, I mean -- I'm talking about CapEx here. I mean how much gas can you bring forward in the portfolio and start to monetize within this kind of new gas environment? Do you have -- is there gas caps? Is there subsea compression you're starting to work on? Things like that. That's the first question.

顯然，數量異常。你能不能談談——那都是汽油嗎？該數字是否有任何電力交易的跡象？而且我真的有點了解您是否在今年餘下時間或 2022 年進行了適當的設置。與此相關，我的意思是 - 我在這裡談論的是資本支出。我的意思是你可以在投資組合中引入多少天然氣，並在這種新的天然氣環境中開始貨幣化？你有 - 有氣帽嗎？您是否開始著手進行海底壓縮？像這樣的東西。這是第一個問題。

Secondly, on convenience mobility, I think you say marginally down in the release this morning. It looks weak to me. This is convenience mobility, ex Castrol. Q1 is not obviously the big quarter, but -- and there was some talk around costs and foreign exchange, but is it just that the wholesale price coming up squeezing the margin? Was it just FX? Is there anything else that's not working here? I'd just love to get a sense of that particular quarterly number. It does look weak.

其次，關於便利移動性，我認為您在今天早上的發布中略微降低了。在我看來它很弱。這是便利的移動性，前嘉實多。第一季度顯然不是大季度，但是——有一些關於成本和外彙的討論，但僅僅是批發價格上漲擠壓了利潤嗎？只是FX嗎？還有什麼不在這里工作的嗎？我只是想了解那個特定的季度數字。它看起來確實很弱。

Very good, Oswald. Thank you. Maybe I'll just have a quick go with the second and let Murray think about trading power and potential for accelerating natural gas.

很好，奧斯瓦爾德。謝謝你。或許我會快速了解一下第二個，讓穆雷考慮交易能力和加速天然氣的潛力。

On convenience and mobility, as you say, excluding Castrol, it actually was our strongest first quarter on record and driven by a number of the things that I spoke about earlier. Basket sizes are up, as I said, between 20% and 40%, 20% to 30% up in Europe, 40% up in the U.S. at Thorntons. We have more loyal customers. We're up to 16 million loyal customers now, and we make quite a bit more from a loyal customer than we do a nonloyal one, so to speak. We have more premium sites. We have more premium fuel sales. They're up 2% since 2019. And the margin share from nonfuel sales has risen from 25% to 32%.

正如您所說，在便利性和機動性方面，不包括嘉實多，這實際上是我們有記錄以來最強勁的第一季度，並且受到我之前談到的許多事情的推動。正如我所說，籃子尺寸增加了 20% 到 40%，歐洲增加了 20% 到 30%，美國增加了 40%。我們有更多的忠實客戶。我們現在擁有多達 1600 萬忠實客戶，可以這麼說，我們從忠實客戶那裡賺到的錢比從非忠實客戶那裡賺到的要多得多。我們有更多的優質網站。我們有更多的優質燃料銷售。自 2019 年以來，它們增長了 2%。非燃料銷售的利潤率份額從 25% 上升到 32%。

So what are you seeing? I think the big thing is you're still seeing an effect of COVID, and retail fuels are still below the levels that we saw in 2019. I think, for BP, our retail volumes are probably down about 8%. And we still had strong lockdowns in Germany in the first quarter, and we also have the situation in China.

那你在看什麼？我認為最重要的是你仍然看到了 COVID 的影響，零售燃料仍低於我們在 2019 年看到的水平。我認為，對於 BP 來說，我們的零售量可能下降了約 8%。第一季度我們在德國仍然有嚴格的封鎖，我們在中國也有這種情況。

So at the core of your question is something fundamentally an issue here. I would say absolutely not, Oswald. I just think it's a tough environment with the remnants of COVID lockdowns in Europe, continuing in China and, obviously, high oil prices, which are always a challenge for that convenience business. But the underlying performance of the business, loyal customers, we've got more customers as well, by the way, on BPMe on the app, more premium sites, more growth sites in India, more premium fuel sales, bigger basket sizes. And in electrification, we sold 3x the amount of power in the first quarter than we did in the previous first quarter of last year. So that business is really accelerating with our top sites now being profitable. So that hopefully gives you a little sense of what's going on behind the scenes in convenience and mobility.

因此，您問題的核心是這裡的根本問題。我會說絕對不是，奧斯瓦爾德。我只是認為這是一個艱難的環境，歐洲的 COVID 封鎖的殘餘，在中國繼續存在，顯然還有高油價，這對便利業務來說始終是一個挑戰。但是業務的基本表現，忠誠的客戶，順便說一下，我們在應用程序上的 BPMe 上也有更多的客戶，更多的優質網站，更多的印度增長網站，更多的優質燃料銷售，更大的籃子尺寸。在電氣化方面，我們在第一季度售出的電量是去年第一季度的 3 倍。因此，隨著我們的頂級網站現在盈利，這項業務確實在加速發展。因此，希望這能讓您對便利性和移動性的幕後情況有所了解。

Murray, trading power, natural gas?

默里，貿易力量，天然氣？

Yes, Os. so on gas trading, I think that was your question. What are the teams focused on? First, flow assurance, making sure that molecules get from the producing locations to the consumers. We think that's exceptionally important right now given where the world is. So they're very focused on flow assurance and making sure that energy flows.

是的，奧斯。所以關於天然氣交易，我認為這是你的問題。團隊專注於什麼？首先，流量保證，確保分子從生產地點到達消費者。鑑於世界在哪裡，我們認為現在這非常重要。所以他們非常關注流動保證和確保能量流動。

Generally, our trading organization is set up to make profits when volatility occurs, and the first quarter was probably the highest quarter of volatility we've seen. So it's more about volatility. It doesn't matter if price is high or low. It's about volatility. So are we set up well for the rest of the year? I'll let you judge what's going to happen with the rest of the year.

一般來說，我們的交易機構是為了在波動發生時獲利而設立的，而第一季度可能是我們所見過的波動率最高的季度。所以更多的是關於波動性。價格是高是低並不重要。這是關於波動性的。那麼我們在今年剩下的時間裡準備好了嗎？我會讓你判斷今年剩下的時間會發生什麼。

On CapEx and acceleration, we have a lot of options to bring gas forward to help Europe. Obviously, Tortue in Mauritania and Senegal, the first phase is ongoing. We're looking at the second phase that would help. In places like Shah Deniz, we're looking at expanding the compression on the pipeline and bringing additional gas resource to Europe across the portfolio. In the U.K., we're looking at options around ETAP to try to draw more gas in as well, some of the things you're talking about, like blow downs, et cetera. So the organization is very, very focused on what we can do to help the energy flows in the world across many jurisdictions as we point towards Europe right now.

在資本支出和加速方面，我們有很多選擇可以推動天然氣來幫助歐洲。顯然，毛里塔尼亞和塞內加爾的酷刑，第一階段正在進行中。我們正在研究會有所幫助的第二階段。在像 Shah Deniz 這樣的地方，我們正在考慮擴大對管道的壓縮，並在整個投資組合中為歐洲帶來更多的天然氣資源。在英國，我們正在尋找圍繞 ETAP 的選項，以嘗試吸入更多的氣體，你正在談論的一些事情，比如排空等等。因此，當我們現在指向歐洲時，該組織非常非常關注我們可以做些什麼來幫助世界上許多司法管轄區的能源流動。

And not just on the upstream side, I guess, also on the ultimate role of trading that we need to remind ourselves is to make sure that the molecules find a home, and connecting supply with demand has never been more important than it has been for the energy systems in the first quarter, so 55 cargoes of LNG into Europe in the last 5 months, 10 of those into the U.K. We just signed, I think, our biggest LNG deal ever actually with KOGAS for 1.8 million tonnes, I think, just a few months ago. So it's not just an upstream equity investment story around natural gas. It's also through the marketing and trading business, Oswald. So hopefully, that helps.

我想，不僅僅是在上游方面，我們需要提醒自己的交易的最終作用是確保分子找到歸宿，將供需聯繫起來從未像現在這樣重要第一季度的能源系統，所以過去 5 個月有 55 批液化天然氣運往歐洲，其中 10 批運往英國。我認為，我們剛剛與 KOGAS 簽署了有史以來最大的液化天然氣交易，價值 180 萬噸，我認為，就在幾個月前。因此，這不僅僅是一個圍繞天然氣的上游股權投資故事。這也是通過營銷和貿易業務，奧斯瓦爾德。所以希望，這會有所幫助。

Thanks, Os. We'll take the next question from Paul Cheng at Scotiabank in the U.S. Paul, thanks for being up early again.

謝謝，奧斯。我們將回答美國豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng 的下一個問題。Paul，感謝您再次早起。

Two questions, please. First, just curious that, I mean, with the Russian invasion, I think -- just want to see how that impact operationally on your European operation -- refining -- your European refining operation. If the (inaudible) the product yield, [how are] those being impact within your system?

請教兩個問題。首先，只是好奇，我的意思是，隨著俄羅斯的入侵，我想 - 只是想看看這對你的歐洲業務 - 煉油 - 你的歐洲煉油業務有何影響。如果（聽不清）產品產量，[如何] 這些對您的系統產生影響？

And second question is on Page 27 on your presentation. For your 2030 EBITDA, the chart there for the resilient hydrocarbon, it seems to me the chart suggests the oil and gas business will see a couple billion dollars of the improvement. Can you quantify or maybe help us understand a little bit better where the improvement come from?

第二個問題在您演示文稿的第 27 頁。對於您的 2030 EBITDA（彈性碳氫化合物的圖表），在我看來，圖表表明石油和天然氣業務將看到數十億美元的改善。您能否量化或幫助我們更好地了解改進的來源？

Very good. Paul, thank you. I'll let Murray take the second question.

很好。保羅，謝謝。我會讓穆雷回答第二個問題。

On the European refining system, we've got 4 refineries in Europe, in Castellón in Spain, Gelsenkirchen and Lingen in Germany and Rotterdam in the Netherlands. And I can confirm that all of the European refineries are -- all of BP's European refineries are clear of Russian molecules. So we've managed and adapted as you would expect. And those refineries are running independent of Russian crude today.

在歐洲煉油系統方面，我們在歐洲有 4 家煉油廠，分別位於西班牙的卡斯特利翁、德國的蓋爾森基興和林根以及荷蘭的鹿特丹。我可以確認所有歐洲煉油廠——BP 的所有歐洲煉油廠都沒有俄羅斯分子。因此，我們按照您的預期進行了管理和調整。如今，這些煉油廠獨立於俄羅斯原油運行。

And with that, I will pass you to Murray for the question on Page 27, which is about the 2030 outlook. Murray?

有了這個，我將把你交給默里，回答第 27 頁上的問題，即關於 2030 年的展望。穆雷？

Yes, Paul. Let's see if I've hit your question here. You're looking at the resilient hydrocarbon EBITDA bridge, and you're wondering where the increase in profit comes from across the decade. Obviously, the stuff we've talked about in the past, first of all, we're bringing in the upstream. We're bringing on higher-margin barrels, offsetting decline in the other barrels. So that's a big chunk of it, is an improvement in the mix.

是的，保羅。讓我們看看我是否在這裡遇到了你的問題。您正在關注彈性碳氫化合物 EBITDA 橋樑，您想知道這十年中利潤的增長來自哪裡。顯然，我們過去談論過的東西，首先，我們正在引入上游。我們帶來了利潤率更高的桶，抵消了其他桶的下降。所以這是其中很大一部分，是對組合的改進。

Second, we have a big focus on cost and improving the cost inside the oil and gas business, driving the production cost per barrel from $7 down to $6 across -- through 2025 and then holding that through the decade. Of course, we're seeing an improvement in refining as the margin gets back to pre-COVID levels, and we're able to optimize the refining slate.

其次，我們非常關注成本和提高石油和天然氣業務的成本，將每桶的生產成本從 7 美元降至 6 美元——到 2025 年，然後在十年內保持這一水平。當然，隨著利潤率回到 COVID 之前的水平，我們看到了精煉方面的改進，並且我們能夠優化精煉計劃。

And last, inside bioenergy, where we've got big plans to expand across 5 plants around the world, and those are in the engineering design phase. And we're looking forward to our first investment decisions in the next 12 months. So that gives you a sense of where the growth is coming from 2021 to 2030. And these slides we put in the slide presentation to just restate without Rosneft to make sure that our guidance was clear. Hope that helps, Paul, and I'm happy to take more questions on the sell side call later today if you'd like.

最後，在生物能源內部，我們有在全球範圍內擴展 5 家工廠的宏偉計劃，這些工廠正處於工程設計階段。我們期待在未來 12 個月內做出第一個投資決定。這樣一來，您就可以了解 2021 年到 2030 年的增長趨勢。我們在幻燈片演示中放置的這些幻燈片只是在沒有 Rosneft 的情況下重述，以確保我們的指導是明確的。希望對您有所幫助，保羅，如果您願意，我很高興今天晚些時候在賣方電話會議上回答更多問題。

Thanks, Murray. And Paul, I would just add that the European refineries that we have are running at max throughput as well. Doing everything we can to obviously help the situation.

謝謝，默里。保羅，我只想補充一點，我們擁有的歐洲煉油廠也在以最大吞吐量運行。盡我們所能來明顯地幫助這種情況。

Back to you, Craig.

回到你身邊，克雷格。

Thanks, Paul. We'll take the next question from Lydia Rainforth at Barclays.

謝謝，保羅。我們將回答來自巴克萊的 Lydia Rainforth 的下一個問題。

Two questions, if I could. First, just to come back to the strategy question. Obviously, it was set up to be conservative at $60. But at $100, you are generating more cash. So does really nothing change other than more buybacks and lower debt? So I'm just trying to understand how you adapt the margin.

兩個問題，如果可以的話。首先，回到戰略問題。顯然，它被設置為保守的 60 美元。但是在 100 美元時，您會產生更多的現金。那麼除了更多的回購和更低的債務之外，真的沒有什麼改變嗎？所以我只是想了解您如何調整邊距。

And then secondly and possibly allude to that, you do have a new head of low carbon, Anja. Can you talk to what you want from her and any observations that Anja may have made to the ExCo about the current BP portfolio that you might like to share?

其次，可能會提到這一點，您確實有一位新的低碳負責人 Anja。您能否談談您想從她那裡得到什麼，以及 Anja 可能對 ExCo 提出的關於您可能想分享的當前 BP 投資組合的任何意見？

Very good, Lydia. Why don't I let Murray reiterate our point around discipline, around strategy and what our financial framework is? But thank you for that question.

很好，莉迪亞。為什麼我不讓穆雷重申我們關於紀律、戰略和我們的財務框架的觀點？但是謝謝你的問題。

On Anja, so she's just in, and I have to say that she's probably listening in. But we're absolutely delighted with the impact she's making. She clearly brings enormous experience in this sector, which is important as we really lean into the space, asking lots of questions, challenging, turning things away, accelerating things and hiring lots of people. We're actually -- are in the process of bringing some fantastic talent on board from several other companies in the sector. And I'm incredibly pleased that they're joining BP. And I think part of it is because of our strategy. And I think part of it is because of the credibility that she has.

在 Anja 上，所以她剛剛加入，我不得不說她可能正在傾聽。但我們對她所產生的影響感到非常高興。她顯然在這個領域帶來了豐富的經驗，這很重要，因為我們真正融入這個領域，提出很多問題，挑戰，扭轉局面，加速發展並僱用很多人。實際上，我們正在從該行業的其他幾家公司引進一些出色的人才。我對他們加入 BP 感到非常高興。我認為部分原因在於我們的戰略。我認為部分原因是因為她的可信度。

We'll get on Anja in front of the market, hopefully, later this year, and I'd love you to get the opportunity to spend time. But too early to say any changes other than, obviously, she's running our eye right across the strategy, and we're working with her on any changes that, that might bring about. And as soon as we know if there are any, we'll update you later in the year but really delighted to have her on the team.

希望今年晚些時候，我們將在市場前介紹 Anja，我希望您有機會花時間。但要說任何變化還為時過早，顯然，她正在關注我們的戰略，我們正在與她一起研究可能帶來的任何變化。一旦我們知道是否有任何消息，我們會在今年晚些時候通知您，但真的很高興她能加入團隊。

Murray, on strategy, nothing changes?

默里，在戰略上，沒有任何改變？

Yes, I think my boss answered the question, Lydia. Nothing changes. Dividend, #1 priority. We need to make sure it's resilient and that we can pay it at $40 balance point. We think that's exceptionally important. It was only 15 months ago that the oil price was in the 40s.

是的，我想我的老闆回答了這個問題，莉迪亞。沒有什麼變化。股息，#1 優先。我們需要確保它具有彈性，並且我們可以以 40 美元的平衡點支付它。我們認為這非常重要。僅僅 15 個月前，油價還處於 40 年代。

Second, we need to continue to reduce debt. And we're very pleased to see 8 straight quarters, now down to $27.5 billion of net debt.

第二，我們需要繼續減少債務。我們很高興看到連續 8 個季度的淨債務現在降至 275 億美元。

Third, the lesson of the past 20 years is stick with capital discipline. Every time the oil price rises, in the past, we spent an awful lot more as a sector, and we destroy value. And we're focused on not destroying value now, continuing to drive efficiency into all of our spend, whether that be CapEx or cost and then no change to what we do with our surplus 60% to share buybacks and the 40% to debt reduction. Hope that helps, Lydia.

第三，過去20年的教訓是堅持資本紀律。過去，每當油價上漲時，我們作為一個行業的花費要多得多，而且我們會破壞價值。我們現在專注於不破壞價值，繼續提高我們所有支出的效率，無論是資本支出還是成本，然後我們將剩餘的 60% 用於股票回購和 40% 用於減少債務的方式保持不變.希望有幫助，莉迪亞。

Thank you, Lydia. We'll take the next question from Chris Kuplent at Bank of America.

謝謝你，莉迪亞。我們將回答美國銀行的 Chris Kuplent 的下一個問題。

Two quick questions, please. On Russia and your exit, can you elaborate a little bit what criteria are you going to use for selecting buyers coming forward for your Rosneft stake? Is it purely on highest price? Or are there other considerations you're going to take into account? And obviously, this is for the market, I believe, not just about price but also about time it takes for you to finally actually exit in reality.

請提兩個簡單的問題。關於俄羅斯和您的退出，您能否詳細說明您將使用什麼標準來選擇前來購買您的 Rosneft 股份的買家？純粹是最高價嗎？或者還有其他你要考慮的因素嗎？顯然，這是針對市場的，我相信，不僅僅是價格，還有你最終真正退出現實所需要的時間。

And then to your energy trilemma point, and I appreciate you're going to update us later on, on changes to your longer-term commodity price assumptions. But could you perhaps comment again about BPX? Isn't partly the idea of having a short cycle in your portfolio made for this time? Is it because of the hedging that you referred to earlier? And I'm, by no means, suggesting you should significantly upgrade your CapEx. But if there are opportunities out there with 1-, 2-year paybacks, I wonder why your CapEx message hasn't changed, if at least not in the composition of the overall CapEx. So maybe let me wrap up by asking after that press release regarding the U.K. investments, which of these have actually changed? We've been in this new world energy order for the last, I guess, 10 weeks. Which of your CapEx numbers, if any, do you think have changed that you're representing in these press releases?

然後到你的能源三難困境點，我很感激你稍後會更新我們，關於你的長期商品價格假設的變化。但是您能否再次評論一下 BPX？在你的投資組合中設置一個短週期的想法部分不是為這次而製定的嗎？是因為你之前提到的對沖嗎？而且我絕不是建議您顯著升級您的資本支出。但是，如果有 1 年或 2 年投資回報的機會，我想知道為什麼您的資本支出信息沒有改變，至少在整體資本支出的構成中沒有改變。所以也許讓我在關於英國投資的新聞稿之後詢問一下，其中哪些實際上發生了變化？我猜，我們在這個新的世界能源秩序中已經有 10 週的時間了。您認為您在這些新聞稿中所代表的哪些資本支出數字（如果有）發生了變化？

Very good, Chris. Thank you. I'll let Murray talk about BPX and what we're doing there. You're beginning to sound a little bit like Dave Lawler, who runs that business, so -- who's always looking for more capital, but we'll take that question.

很好，克里斯。謝謝你。我會讓 Murray 談談 BPX 以及我們在那裡所做的事情。你開始聽起來有點像經營該業務的戴夫勞勒，所以 - 他一直在尋找更多資金，但我們會接受這個問題。

And on the plans that we've announced, as you will have seen, many of these things have been in place. Many have been put in place over the last several months as the government has rolled out its policies and supporting the drive in electrification. That's what's allowed us to commit to GBP 1 billion in electrification through this decade. And the government has just published its energy security strategy for the U.K. And I think we can expect to see further investments coming over the coming months from BP in support of that strategy. So I would say watch the space on that. All within that, you should not expect to see our overall capital frame for BP change.

正如您將看到的，在我們宣布的計劃中，其中許多已經到位。在過去幾個月中，隨著政府推出政策並支持電氣化發展，許多措施已經到位。這就是讓我們在這十年中承諾在電氣化方面投入 10 億英鎊的原因。政府剛剛公佈了英國的能源安全戰略。我認為我們可以期待未來幾個月英國石油公司將進一步投資以支持該戰略。所以我會說注意那個空間。在這一切中，你不應該期望看到我們的 BP 變化的整體資本框架。

On your question on Russia, I will, unfortunately, say the same thing to you as I say to everyone else. When it comes to commercial processes, we don't comment. We have a policy on not commenting, and we're not making an exception for this particular case of Russia this morning. We'll come back to you and update you once we know more.

關於你關於俄羅斯的問題，不幸的是，我會對你說同樣的話，就像我對其他人說的一樣。對於商業流程，我們不予置評。我們有不發表評論的政策，對於今天早上的俄羅斯這一特殊情況，我們也不例外。一旦我們了解更多信息，我們會回复您並更新您的信息。

Murray, on BPX, please.

Murray，請在 BPX 上。

On BPX, Chris, we have increased the amount of investment going in. Last year, you all remember, we spent around $1 billion. This year, we're spending somewhere between $1.6 billion and $1.7 billion. We'll see how we go through the year. Our focus inside the Permian is in building out 2 big gathering systems. They should be up by the end of the year. And at that stage, we'll have the capacity to ramp up drilling more. Right now, we don't have the capacity to ramp up drilling more in the Permian. And then in Haynesville, Eagle Ford with ourselves and with partner operated, we're increasing investment there. I think we're up to 9 rigs now.

在 BPX，克里斯，我們增加了投資額。去年，你們都記得，我們花了大約 10 億美元。今年，我們的支出在 16 億美元到 17 億美元之間。我們將看看我們如何度過這一年。我們在二疊紀的重點是建立兩個大型採集系統。他們應該在今年年底前上漲。在那個階段，我們將有能力增加鑽探。目前，我們沒有能力在二疊紀加大鑽探力度。然後在海恩斯維爾，鷹福特與我們自己和合作夥伴一起經營，我們正在增加那裡的投資。我想我們現在最多有 9 台鑽機。

So yes, we are increasing the investments in there, and it's all about doing it efficiently. We don't want to ramp up too fast, or we become inefficient, and we want to make sure that we've got the facilities in place to ensure that we don't flare or [emit] methane as we go through the expansion in the Permian. So very happy that we're investing upwards to $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion, and we have plans further in 2023 and beyond to continue increasing. CapEx, remember that we're trying to get a dividend out of BPX having bought the assets from BHP a few years ago. We're now trying to get our money back. So we're looking for a dividend out of that entity.

所以是的，我們正在增加在那裡的投資，這一切都是為了有效地做到這一點。我們不想增長太快，或者我們變得效率低下，我們希望確保我們擁有適當的設施，以確保我們在擴張過程中不會燃燒或[排放]甲烷在二疊紀。非常高興我們的投資額高達 16 億至 17 億美元，我們計劃在 2023 年及以後繼續增加投資。資本支出，請記住，我們正試圖從幾年前從 BHP 購買資產的 BPX 中獲得股息。我們現在正試圖拿回我們的錢。因此，我們正在從該實體中尋找股息。

Bernard, back to you.

伯納德，回到你身邊。

Understood. Understood. And therefore, no change to your hedging policy there?

明白了。明白了。因此，您的對沖政策沒有變化嗎？

No change, hedging policy.

無變化，對沖政策。

Thanks, Chris. We'll take the next question from Alastair Syme at Citi. Alastair?

謝謝，克里斯。我們將回答花旗的 Alastair Syme 的下一個問題。阿拉斯泰爾？

Great. First question, just on the RMM guidance that you have out there. Is there any reason why that guidance wouldn't apply to the RMM environment we're seeing quarter-to-date, i.e., do you just use that guidance in 2Q?

偉大的。第一個問題，只是關於您現有的 RMM 指南。該指南是否有任何理由不適用於我們本季度迄今看到的 RMM 環境，即您是否僅在第二季度使用該指南？

And then secondly, on the low carbon, specifically wind, we're seeing another profit warning from a wind developer yesterday. Just again, a bit of back to this point on inflation, it seems to me as though that there's some loss or some are on the system, either you guys or the supply chain that is unable to pass on the increase in cost that we're seeing in the supply chain.

其次，在低碳，特別是風能方面，我們昨天看到了風能開發商的另一個盈利警告。再說一次，回到通貨膨脹這一點上，在我看來，系統上似乎有一些損失或一些損失，無論是你們還是供應鏈都無法轉嫁我們的成本增加'在供應鏈中重新看到。

Alastair, thank you. I'll ask Murray to take the question around RMM and I think rules of thumb on guidance.

阿拉斯泰爾，謝謝。我會請 Murray 回答有關 RMM 的問題，我認為指導原則是經驗法則。

On low carbon, certainly, on offshore wind, in particular, I think a challenging marketplace on a number of dimensions, including for suppliers in that sector. A couple of things I would say. Number one, we will only do projects that meet our guidance of 8% to 10% returns. We recently bid in a round -- a license round in the United States and were unsuccessful.

在低碳方面，尤其是在海上風電方面，我認為在許多方面都是一個具有挑戰性的市場，包括該領域的供應商。我想說幾件事。第一，我們只會做符合我們 8% 到 10% 回報率指導的項目。我們最近在美國進行了一輪許可競標，但沒有成功。

And I hope you take that as a sign of discipline. We've got over 5 gigawatts net of offshore wind in BP today. That's up from 0 about 18 months ago. We're comfortable with the portfolio that we have. We obviously want to grow that, but we don't want to grow it at any cost or at all costs. So we are very disciplined, and we will look at future rounds in Holland, in Norway, in Japan. You'll have seen the announcement with Marubeni.

我希望你把它當作紀律的標誌。今天，我們在 BP 擁有超過 5 吉瓦的海上風電淨值。這比大約 18 個月前的 0 有所上升。我們對我們擁有的投資組合感到滿意。我們顯然希望擴大它，但我們不想不惜一切代價或不惜一切代價擴大它。所以我們非常有紀律，我們將關注荷蘭、挪威和日本的未來輪次。你會看到丸紅的公告。

So it's a case-by-case basis. They're all very, very different, containing very different upfront commitments and so on. And we'll do it on a case by case. And if we can't meet our returns, we won't do it.

所以這是一個個案的基礎。它們都非常非常不同，包含非常不同的前期承諾等等。我們將逐案進行。如果我們不能滿足我們的回報，我們就不會這樣做。

And then the second thing that I would say is that you are seeing cost increases in the sector. You are seeing a resharing, I guess, of a -- or an opportunity to reshare risk/reward across the entire supply chain. BP should be well placed to do some of that. We can hedge steel prices. We're a massive consumer of upstream -- steel in our Upstream business. So these are the types of things that an IEC can do that others may struggle to do. And we're also seeing, in some cases, a knock-on impact on the power prices, where power prices are going up to ensure that the investments remain economic as you would expect the market to do.

然後我要說的第二件事是，您正在看到該行業的成本增加。我猜，你正在看到一個重新共享——或者一個在整個供應鏈中重新共享風險/回報的機會。 BP 應該能夠很好地做到這一點。我們可以對沖鋼價。我們是上游的龐大消費者——我們上游業務中的鋼鐵。因此，這些是 IEC 可以做的事情，而其他人可能很難做到。在某些情況下，我們還看到了對電價的連鎖反應，電價正在上漲，以確保投資保持經濟，正如您所期望的市場。

So yes, some challenges out there in that sector. With a desire of the world to do more as there is the U.K. going up by 10 gigawatts, people increasing hydrogen ambitions and so on. There is a continuing need for this form of energy. We will do it, and we will invest in it and bring our skills but only do it where we can make the investment returns that promise to market. So hopefully, that helps you, Alastair.

所以，是的，該領域存在一些挑戰。隨著英國的發電量增加 10 吉瓦，人們對氫的雄心壯誌等等，世界都希望做更多的事情。對這種形式的能量有持續的需求。我們會這樣做，我們將投資於它並帶來我們的技能，但只有在我們能夠為市場帶來投資回報的情況下才會這樣做。希望對你有所幫助，阿拉斯泰爾。

And Murray, guidance?

還有默里，指導？

Yes. On RMM guidance, it's a bit tricky to figure out how to guide right now. We haven't seen this level of RMM before in the past. So the rules of thumb would be a starting point. Things to think about, CO2 prices are very high. Gas prices as inputs into refineries are very high. And market dislocations locally are very high. So I think I'll start with the rules of thumb, and then I'd aim off a bit. I wish I could give you better guidance than that. But we have not seen prices like this before, so we'll have to learn with you as we move through 2Q and 3Q and understand how they work at these higher prices.

是的。在 RMM 指導上，現在要弄清楚如何指導有點棘手。我們過去從未見過這種級別的 RMM。因此，經驗法則將是一個起點。想一想，二氧化碳的價格非常高。作為煉油廠投入的天然氣價格非常高。當地的市場錯位非常高。所以我想我會從經驗法則開始，然後我會瞄準一點。我希望我能給你比這更好的指導。但我們以前從未見過這樣的價格，因此我們必須在第二季度和第三季度與您一起學習，並了解它們在這些更高價格下的運作方式。

Last comment, there's a big year of towers ahead of us, and we've got a couple of big towers in 2Q as well. So that's something to consider. Hope that helps, Al.

最後的評論，我們前面有一個重要的塔樓，我們在第二季度也有幾個大塔樓。所以這是需要考慮的事情。希望有幫助，艾爾。

Thanks, Al. We'll take the next question from Michele Della Vigna at Goldman Sachs, please.

謝謝，艾爾。請高盛的 Michele Della Vigna 提出下一個問題。

And once again, congratulations on the results. I was wondering if you could give us an update on the 4 or 5 key projects that drive your growth over the next couple of years. I'm thinking, in particular, of Mad Dog, Tangguh, Tortue and Trinidad.

再次祝賀結果。我想知道您是否可以向我們提供有關在未來幾年推動您增長的 4 或 5 個關鍵項目的最新信息。我特別想到了瘋狗、東古、托爾圖和特立尼達。

And secondly, I was wondering if the revival of long-term demand for LNG makes the next phase of Tortue more likely and especially given the need for long-term contracts for project financing there?

其次，我想知道對 LNG 長期需求的複蘇是否會使 Tortue 的下一階段更有可能，尤其是考慮到那裡需要長期合同來進行項目融資？

Very good. Michele. We might tag team this one. Murray, maybe lead on the chances or outlook for the next phase of Tortue, which is, I guess, only improved by today's price environment.

很好。米歇爾。我們可能會標記這個團隊。穆雷，也許在 Tortue 下一階段的機會或前景方面處於領先地位，我猜，這只是由於今天的價格環境而有所改善。

On the projects, you've mentioned the big ones. Mad Dog Phase 2 is doing well actually on location. I think all of the subsea is connected now. We've had some real challenges out there with (inaudible), which happened in the Gulf of Mexico. So first and most important job is safety of that operation, and the team has done that exceptionally well. And all the wells that we need are predrilled. In fact, a couple of extra. So we're very excited about that project starting up, and it will start up by the end of this year.

在項目上，你提到了大項目。 Mad Dog Phase 2 實際上在現場表現良好。我認為現在所有的海底都連接起來了。我們遇到了一些真正的挑戰（聽不清），這發生在墨西哥灣。因此，首要的也是最重要的工作是操作的安全性，而團隊在這方面做得非常好。我們需要的所有井都是預先鑽好的。事實上，還有一些額外的。所以我們對這個項目的啟動感到非常興奮，它將在今年年底啟動。

Cassia Compression in Trinidad will also start up by the end of the year as well KG D6 in India, completing that phase of development there. So excited about that.

特立尼達的 Cassia Compression 以及印度的 KG D6 也將於今年年底啟動，在那裡完成該階段的開發。對此非常興奮。

And then Tortue and Tangguh expansion in Indonesia, Tortue in West Africa. We've had some major impacts from COVID there. The teams have been doing, I think, if you don't mind me saying some heroic jobs and keeping those projects going. In Tangguh, for example, we have over 10,000 people, over 7 or 8 hours from Jakarta. And the team has been doing an exceptional job of managing with COVID. We'd hope for those projects, both of those, to start up by the end of next year, but a lot of it depends on how COVID evolves, particularly with the FPSO in China -- being completed in China for Tortue. So that's a little bit around the progress of those projects. But all in all, in pretty good shape.

然後是印度尼西亞的 Tortue 和 Tangguh 擴張，西非的 Tortue。我們在那裡受到了 COVID 的一些重大影響。我想，如果你不介意我說一些英勇的工作並讓這些項目繼續進行的話，這些團隊一直在做。例如，在東固，我們有超過 10,000 人，距離雅加達 7 或 8 小時車程。該團隊在管理 COVID 方面做得非常出色。我們希望這兩個項目都能在明年年底前啟動，但這在很大程度上取決於 COVID 的發展方式，特別是中國的 FPSO 正在中國完成 Tortue。這與這些項目的進展有關。但總的來說，狀態還不錯。

And Murray, do you want to add anything to that or comment on Tortue, next phases?

默里，您想對此添加任何內容或對 Tortue 下一階段發表評論嗎？

Yes, nothing to add to that. And then Tortue, next phase is, Michele, as you say, a better environment for it now. We're pleased with the progress on Tortue and looking to expand it. It will just take a completion of commercial negotiations with the country and with partners and suppliers to get there. I had the chance to meet with the finance minister of Senegal a few weeks ago here in St. James's, and things are feeling positive right now. So we're looking forward to hopefully sanctioning Phase 2 in the future.

是的，沒有什麼可補充的。然後是 Tortue，下一階段是，Michele，正如你所說，現在是一個更好的環境。我們對 Tortue 的進展感到滿意，並希望擴大它。只需完成與該國以及與合作夥伴和供應商的商業談判即可到達那裡。幾週前，我有機會在聖詹姆斯與塞內加爾財政部長會面，現在情況很樂觀。因此，我們期待在未來批准第 2 階段。

Great. And we should also add, Michele, that BPX -- the liquids growth from BPX this year and in the coming years, while not a major project, will also be a real adder to those projects we just talked about. So thank you, Michele.

偉大的。我們還應該補充一點，Michele，BPX——今年和未來幾年 BPX 的液體增長，雖然不是一個重大項目，但也將成為我們剛才談到的那些項目的真正補充。所以謝謝你，米歇爾。

Thanks, Michele. We'll take the next question from Giacomo Romeo from Jefferies.

謝謝，米歇爾。我們將回答 Jefferies 的 Giacomo Romeo 的下一個問題。

First question is, I noticed that your renewable hopper somewhat fell from 17 gigawatt to 12. Now I understand that's 1.8 moved into the developed plus pipeline bucket. Just wondering sort of if you can reconcile what happened to the remaining projects, if that's a reflection of the higher cost pressure you're seeing or whether it's sort of already an impact of Anja looking at your bidding opportunities there.

第一個問題是，我注意到您的可再生料斗從 17 吉瓦下降到 12 吉瓦。現在我知道這是 1.8 移到了已開發的加管道桶中。只是想知道您是否可以調和剩餘項目的情況，這是否反映了您所看到的更高的成本壓力，或者這是否已經是 Anja 在那裡查看您的投標機會的影響。

Second question is around the potential divestment of the Rosneft stake. If you can talk a little bit about what you're looking at to use potential proceeds from the divestments if they would be reinvested in more of an upstream side of the business or they could be reinvested into accelerating the lower carbon growth or if they could be returned to shareholders. So a little bit of clarity on the use of proceeds there would be helpful.

第二個問題是圍繞俄羅斯石油公司股份的潛在撤資。如果你能談談你正在考慮使用撤資的潛在收益，如果它們將再投資於更多的業務上游方面，或者它們可以再投資於加速低碳增長，或者如果他們可以返還給股東。因此，對收益的使用進行一些澄清會有所幫助。

Giacomo, thank you. On the proceeds from the commercial process that we are not commenting on, I think, again, we'll just -- let's leave that until we have something further to say on that commercial process, if that's okay? I think our financial frame is very clear and hopefully lays that out.

賈科莫，謝謝。關於我們沒有評論的商業流程的收益，我想，再一次，我們將 - 讓我們把它留到我們對該商業流程有進一步的發言權之前，如果可以的話？我認為我們的財務框架非常清晰，並希望能夠闡明這一點。

On the renewable hopper, hoppers should grow and should shrink. That's the nature of a hopper. Yes, I think you've seen it fall. It's probably not the best measure in many ways. The pipeline is probably a much better measure. Why has it fallen? Because we haven't -- we've chosen not to do things. And we've chosen not to do things because you are right. Anja is running a very, very tight rule over things and has already kicked back some proposals, which we think is a very positive thing. So she is doing exactly what we want her to do, which is, yes, we want to lean in and accelerate, but we only want to do we can make the returns that we've promised, and that's why we've hired her, so partly because of Anja's rule that she is running over things and, obviously, all because we don't believe that we can make the returns that we have promised you all. So it's a combination of both, and that's all I would say on that. So thank you for noticing, and thank you for the questions.

在可再生料斗上，料斗應該增長並且應該收縮。這就是漏斗的本質。是的，我想你已經看到它跌倒了。在許多方面，這可能不是最好的衡量標準。管道可能是一個更好的衡量標準。為什麼跌了？因為我們沒有——我們選擇不做事。我們選擇不做事，因為你是對的。 Anja 對事情的管理非常非常嚴格，並且已經撤回了一些提案，我們認為這是一件非常積極的事情。所以她正在做我們想讓她做的事，是的，我們想要傾斜並加速，但我們只想做我們承諾的回報，這就是我們僱用她的原因，所以部分是因為 Anja 的規則，她在事情上跑來跑去，顯然，這一切都是因為我們不相信我們可以做出我們向你們承諾過的回報。所以這是兩者的結合，這就是我要說的。因此，感謝您的關注，並感謝您提出問題。

Okay. Thanks very much. And we'll take the final question from Henri Patricot, UBS. Thanks for being patient, Henri.

好的。非常感謝。我們將回答瑞銀的 Henri Patricot 的最後一個問題。謝謝你的耐心，亨利。

Just a couple quick ones on the gas low-carbon production. We took the guidance for the year. So in production expected, broadly [flat], this is slightly lower previously. Can you comment on what's driving the change? And then secondly, whether we could see further improvement as you look to maximize gas production?

關於天然氣低碳生產的一些快速說明。我們接受了這一年的指導。因此，在生產預期中，大致[持平]，這比之前略低。你能評論一下是什麼推動了這種變化嗎？其次，當您希望最大限度地提高天然氣產量時，我們是否可以看到進一步的改善？

Henri, thank you. I'll let Murray take that question.

亨利，謝謝。我會讓默里回答這個問題。

Yes. It's just a little bit less base decline than we thought we'd see inside Trinidad, is why we've updated that guidance.

是的。它只是比我們認為在特立尼達內部看到的要少一點，這就是我們更新該指南的原因。

Very good. Henri, thank you for being patient, and back to you, Craig.

很好。亨利，謝謝你的耐心，克雷格，謝謝你。

Yes, that's the end of all the questions. Thanks, everybody, for keeping the questions tight. Thanks for listening. Let me hand over, Bernard, back to you for some closing comments.

是的，這就是所有問題的結束。謝謝大家，讓問題保持緊張。感謝收聽。讓我交出，伯納德，給你一些結束評論。

Very good. Well, thank you, everyone. Thank you for your time. Just a few things to close.

很好。嗯，謝謝大家。感謝您的時間。只需要關閉幾件事。

For us here at BP, the role of an integrated energy company has never been clearer in many ways than it is today and the role of an integrated energy company is to solve the energy trilemma of providing the world with cleaner, reliable and affordable energy. And that means providing the world with the hydrocarbons that it needs today with lower emissions and, at the same time, investing in accelerating the energy transition. That's what we're doing.

對於我們 BP 來說，綜合能源公司的作用在許多方面從未像今天這樣清晰，綜合能源公司的作用是解決能源三難困境，即為世界提供更清潔、可靠和負擔得起的能源。這意味著以更低的排放量為世界提供當今所需的碳氫化合物，同時投資於加速能源轉型。這就是我們正在做的事情。

The second thing I would say is that delivery is our focus. We've set our direction. We've done our change. It's all about delivery inside our company, and I hope you can see that in the first quarter results today, with reliability being strong with that first quarter and convenience being strong on a first quarter basis, where trading being strong. So delivery is what it's all about. We are doing what we said we would do, which is to perform while transforming, performing for our owners today and, at the same time, transforming the company for tomorrow.

我要說的第二件事是交付是我們的重點。我們已經確定了方向。我們已經完成了改變。這一切都與我們公司內部的交付有關，我希望你能在今天的第一季度業績中看到這一點，第一季度的可靠性很強，第一季度的便利性很強，交易強勁。所以交付就是一切。我們正在做我們說過要做的事情，即在轉型的同時執行，為我們的所有者今天執行，同時為明天改造公司。

We're now focused next up with the Annual General Meeting on the 12th of May. It's the first time that we've been able to do this in person since Aberdeen of 2019. We look forward to meeting some of you, welcoming you there, and we look forward to your support of the Board's recommendations on the resolutions that have been put forward.

我們現在專注於 5 月 12 日的年度股東大會。這是自 2019 年 Aberdeen 以來我們第一次能夠親自這樣做。我們期待與你們中的一些人會面，歡迎你們來到這裡，我們期待你們支持董事會就已通過的決議提出的建議。提出。

And with that, we appreciate your interest, and we leave everybody to it. So thanks very much, everybody. Take care.

有了這個，我們感謝您的興趣，我們讓每個人都這樣做。非常感謝大家。小心。