英國石油 (BP) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to BP's Second Quarter 2022 Results Presentation. I'm here today with Bernard Looney, Chief Executive Officer; and Murray Auchincloss, Chief Financial Officer.

大家早上好，歡迎來到 BP 2022 年第二季度業績發布會。我今天和首席執行官伯納德·魯尼（Bernard Looney）一起來這裡；和首席財務官 Murray Auchinclos。

Before we begin today, let me draw your attention to our cautionary statement. During today's presentation, we will make forward-looking statements, including those that refer to our estimates, plans and expectations. Actual results and outcomes could differ materially due to factors we note on this slide and in our U.K. and SEC filings. Please refer to our annual report stock exchange announcement and SEC filings for more details. These documents are available on our website. I'll now hand over to Bernard.

在我們今天開始之前，讓我提請您注意我們的警告聲明。在今天的演講中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，包括那些涉及我們的估計、計劃和預期的陳述。由於我們在這張幻燈片以及我們在英國和美國證券交易委員會的文件中提到的因素，實際結果和結果可能會有很大差異。請參閱我們的年度報告證券交易所公告和美國證券交易委員會文件了解更多詳情。這些文件可在我們的網站上找到。我現在將交給伯納德。

Very good. Well, thanks, Craig, and good morning to everyone, and welcome to our second quarter results. It's great to have you join us on the call, obviously, and it's great to see those of you who are here in person, thank you for making the trip. You're going to hear about what I hope you will agree, is some good progress from us today. But before we do that, let me take a moment to put what follows in context.

很好。好吧，謝謝，克雷格，大家早上好，歡迎來到我們的第二季度業績。很高興你能加入我們的電話，很明顯，很高興見到你們中的人親臨現場，感謝你們的這次旅行。你會聽到我希望你同意的，是我們今天取得的一些良好進展。但在我們這樣做之前，讓我花點時間把下面的內容放在上下文中。

Russia's military action is continuing in the Ukraine, devastating people's lives and disrupting energy supplies. And the cost of living is spiraling upwards, with energy costs a big contributor to that. And since the start of the Ukraine conflict, power generation from coal in Europe has significantly increased. And these are stark examples of what we call the energy trilemma: energy security under threat, energy affordability and acute problem for many and a pressing need for lower carbon energy.

俄羅斯在烏克蘭的軍事行動仍在繼續，摧毀了人們的生命並破壞了能源供應。生活成本呈螺旋式上升趨勢，其中能源成本是其中的一個重要因素。自烏克蘭衝突開始以來，歐洲的煤炭發電量顯著增加。這些是我們所謂的能源三難困境的鮮明例子：能源安全受到威脅、能源負擔能力和許多人面臨的嚴重問題以及對低碳能源的迫切需求。

And we see this at BP, obviously. And the question -- the obvious question for us and for our people and that our people ask is, how can we help? And that is why we are absolutely focused on delivering our strategy to become an integrated energy company, a company that we believe can help solve that energy trilemma. And we do that 2 ways. We do that by working hard to keep the energy flowing today. And, not or, and at the same time, investing to accelerate the energy transition. That's the role of an integrated energy company, and I believe and we believe that its purpose has never been clearer.

很明顯，我們在 BP 看到了這一點。問題——對我們和我們的人民以及我們的人民提出的一個顯而易見的問題是，我們如何提供幫助？這就是為什麼我們絕對專注於實施成為一家綜合能源公司的戰略，我們相信這家公司可以幫助解決能源三難困境。我們通過兩種方式做到這一點。我們通過努力保持今天的能量流動來做到這一點。而且，不是或同時，投資以加速能源轉型。這就是綜合能源公司的角色，我相信並且我們相信它的目的從未如此清晰。

And we do all of that while remaining acutely focused on delivering long-term value for our owners, our shareholders. That is the context against which we present today's results, a set of results that show us performing while transforming. During the quarter, we generated operating cash flow of $10.9 billion. We reduced net debt for the ninth consecutive quarter to reach $22.8 billion, and we're growing distributions to our shareholders, our owners by announcing a 10% increase in the quarterly dividend per ordinary share and a further $3.5 billion share buyback.

我們在做所有這些的同時，仍然非常專注於為我們的所有者和股東創造長期價值。這就是我們呈現今天結果的背景，一組結果表明我們在轉型時表現出色。本季度，我們產生了 109 億美元的經營現金流。我們連續第九個季度將淨債務減少至 228 億美元，我們通過宣布將每股普通股季度股息增加 10% 和進一步 35 億美元的股票回購來增加對股東和所有者的分配。

Crucially, we're doing this within a financial frame, which is unchanged and maintaining a resilient $40 per barrel cash balance point. With all the uncertainty in the world, now is not the time to lose discipline. We also have real momentum in our transformation. And in a moment, I will update you on how we are driving improvements in our oil and gas portfolio. and making good progress in our transition growth engines. But for now, I'm going to hand over to Murray to take us through the second quarter results. Over to you, Murray.

至關重要的是，我們是在財務框架內這樣做的，該框架保持不變並保持每桶 40 美元的彈性現金平衡點。面對世界上所有的不確定性，現在不是失去紀律的時候。我們的轉型也有真正的動力。稍後，我將向您介紹我們如何推動石油和天然氣產品組合的改進。並在我們的轉型增長引擎方面取得良好進展。但就目前而言，我將交給默里來帶領我們了解第二季度的業績。交給你了，默里。

Great. Thanks, Bernard, and good morning, everyone. It's nice to see you here in the room. Let's begin with the macro environment. Starting with the oil price. During the second quarter, Brent averaged $114 per barrel, up from $102 per barrel in the first quarter. This was driven by reduced spare global capacity and inventory levels significantly below the 5-year average. Looking ahead, we expect these factors to keep oil prices elevated during the third quarter.

偉大的。謝謝，伯納德，大家早上好。很高興在房間裡見到你。讓我們從宏觀環境開始。從油價開始。第二季度，布倫特原油平均價格為每桶 114 美元，高於第一季度的每桶 102 美元。這是由於全球閒置產能和庫存水平大大低於 5 年平均水平。展望未來，我們預計這些因素將在第三季度保持油價上漲。

Turning to gas prices. During the second quarter, average European prices declined as high LNG imports supported a recovery in inventories. However, in the latter stages of the quarter, prices moved sharply higher, driven by reduced Russian supply and the outage at Freeport. In the U.S., Henry Hub rose by an average of 60% from the first quarter. This was supported by limited gas production growth and strong gas to power demand.

轉向汽油價格。在第二季度，由於高液化天然氣進口支持庫存回升，歐洲平均價格下跌。然而，在本季度後期，由於俄羅斯供應減少和自由港停電，價格大幅上漲。在美國，Henry Hub 較第一季度平均上漲 60%。這得益於有限的天然氣產量增長和強勁的天然氣發電需求。

The outlook for global gas prices is heavily dependent on Russian pipeline flows. We expect prices to remain elevated and volatile during the third quarter due to a lack of supply to Europe.

全球天然氣價格的前景在很大程度上取決於俄羅斯的管道流量。由於歐洲供應不足，我們預計第三季度價格將保持高位波動。

Moving to Refining. Margins more than doubled to average $45.50 per barrel in the second quarter. This reflects resilient demand, lower stocks and sanctioning of Russian crude and product. In the third quarter, we expect refining margins to remain elevated due to ongoing supply disruptions.

轉向精煉。第二季度利潤率翻了一番多，達到平均每桶 45.50 美元。這反映了強勁的需求、較低的庫存以及對俄羅斯原油和產品的製裁。由於持續的供應中斷，我們預計第三季度煉油利潤率將保持較高水平。

Moving to results. In the second quarter, we reported an underlying replacement cost profit of $8.5 billion compared to $6.2 billion last quarter. Compared to the first quarter, in gas and low-carbon energy, the result benefited from higher realizations. This was offset by an average gas marketing and trading result following the exceptional performance in the first quarter. The result includes our best estimate of the impact of the recent outage at Freeport LNG, leading to a significant reduction in the number of cargoes expected to be received.

轉向結果。在第二季度，我們報告了 85 億美元的基本重置成本利潤，而上一季度為 62 億美元。與第一季度相比，在天然氣和低碳能源方面，業績得益於更高的實現。這被第一季度出色表現後的平均天然氣營銷和交易結果所抵消。結果包括我們對 Freeport LNG 近期停運影響的最佳估計，導致預計接收的貨物數量顯著減少。

In oil production and operations, the result reflects higher realizations. In customers and products, the products result benefited from a significant increase in refining margins, partially offset by higher turnaround and maintenance activity. The contribution from oil trading remained exceptionally strong. Strengthened products more than offset the impact of weaker fuel retail margins and higher inflation in a challenging environment in our customers' businesses. Despite these factors, the convenience contribution remains strong.

在石油生產和運營中，結果反映了更高的實現。在客戶和產品方面，產品受益於煉油利潤的顯著增長，部分被更高的周轉和維護活動所抵消。石油交易的貢獻依然異常強勁。在客戶業務充滿挑戰的環境中，強化產品足以抵消燃料零售利潤率疲軟和通脹上升的影響。儘管有這些因素，便利性的貢獻仍然很大。

Turning to cash flow. Operating cash flow was $10.9 billion in the second quarter. This included $1.2 billion of Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments, with a working -- within a working capital build of $2.9 billion. Capital expenditure was $2.8 billion, with our guidance for 2022 remaining in the range of $14 billion to $15 billion. And disposal proceeds were $700 million in the quarter, bringing the first half total to $1.9 billion. Guidance of $2 billion to $3 billion in 2022 is unchanged.

轉向現金流。第二季度的經營現金流為 109 億美元。這包括 12 億美元的墨西哥灣溢油支付，以及 29 億美元的營運資本建設。資本支出為 28 億美元，我們對 2022 年的指導保持在 140 億美元至 150 億美元之間。本季度的處置收益為 7 億美元，使上半年總額達到 19 億美元。 2022 年 20 億至 30 億美元的指導保持不變。

During the quarter, we repurchased $2.3 billion of shares. The $2.5 billion program announced with first quarter 2022 results was completed on July 22. Reflecting underlying cash flow delivery, net debt fell for the ninth consecutive quarter to reach $22.8 billion. And with second quarter surplus cash flow of $6.6 billion, we intend to execute a share buyback of $3.5 billion prior to reporting third quarter results.

本季度，我們回購了 23 億美元的股票。宣布 2022 年第一季度業績的 25 億美元計劃於 7 月 22 日完成。反映基本現金流交付，淨債務連續第九個季度下降，達到 228 億美元。由於第二季度的盈餘現金流為 66 億美元，我們打算在報告第三季度業績之前執行 35 億美元的股票回購。

Moving to our disciplined financial frame, which has 5 priorities and importantly remains unchanged. Our first priority remains a resilient dividend. As Bernard has outlined, we have announced a 10% increase in the quarterly dividend. Crucially, this is funded within an unchanged 2021 to 2025 cash balance point of around $40 per barrel Brent, $3 Henry Hub and $11 per barrel RMM, all 2020 real. This increase reflects the underlying performance and cash generation of the business, which has enabled strong progress in delivering share buybacks and net debt reduction.

轉向我們紀律嚴明的財務框架，該框架有 5 個優先事項，重要的是保持不變。我們的首要任務仍然是彈性紅利。正如伯納德所概述的那樣，我們宣布將季度股息增加 10%。至關重要的是，這是在 2021 年至 2025 年現金平衡點不變的情況下提供的，即每桶布倫特原油約 40 美元、亨利港 3 美元和每桶 RMM 11 美元，均為 2020 年實際。這一增長反映了該業務的基本業績和現金產生，這使得在實現股票回購和淨債務減少方面取得了巨大進展。

Our second priority is to maintain a strong investment-grade credit rating. We intend to continue to allocate 40% of 2022 surplus cash flow to further strengthen the balance sheet. Our third and fourth priorities are the disciplined allocation of investment to our low carbon and convenience and mobility businesses, and to resilient hydrocarbons. And our fifth priority is share buybacks. We are committed to returning 60% of 2022 surplus cash flow through share buybacks, subject to maintaining a strong investment-grade credit rating. And we have now announced share buybacks from 2021 and the first half of 2022 surplus cash flow of over $10 billion. This is equivalent to 60% of the cumulative surplus.

我們的第二個優先事項是維持強大的投資級信用評級。我們打算繼續分配 2022 年盈餘現金流的 40%，以進一步加強資產負債表。我們的第三和第四個優先事項是對我們的低碳、便利和移動業務以及有彈性的碳氫化合物進行有紀律的投資分配。我們的第五個優先事項是股票回購。我們承諾通過股票回購返還 60% 的 2022 年盈餘現金流，前提是維持強大的投資級信用評級。我們現在宣布從 2021 年和 2022 年上半年開始的股票回購超過 100 億美元的盈餘現金流。這相當於累計盈餘的60%。

I'll now hand back to Bernard.

我現在將交還給伯納德。

Murray, thank you. So turning then to some strategic momentum in transforming BP to an integrated energy company. First, I'm going to provide a little update on the progress that we're making in our oil and gas business. And second, I want to highlight some examples, which give us growing confidence in our transition growth engines and how this is underpinned by incumbency, by our assets, by our capabilities, by our relationships, by our brand. And I will focus on 2 engines specifically, EV charging and hydrogen, where we're particularly excited by the progress over the last quarter.

默里，謝謝。因此，轉向將 BP 轉變為綜合能源公司的一些戰略動力。首先，我將簡要介紹一下我們在石油和天然氣業務方面取得的進展。其次，我想強調一些例子，這些例子讓我們對我們的轉型增長引擎越來越有信心，以及在職、我們的資產、我們的能力、我們的關係和我們的品牌如何支持這一點。我將特別關注 2 種發動機，EV 充電和氫氣，我們對上個季度的進展感到特別興奮。

So turning first to our oil and gas business. Our strategy in oil and gas is to maximize returns and cash flow, creating resilience through lower costs, higher margins and lower operating emissions, focusing on the best barrels, and high-grading through divestments at the right time and for the right value. So let me say 3 things about our oil and gas portfolio. Firstly, leverage to price. Today's results show our portfolio doing what it is supposed to do, capturing the upside from higher prices. And as the first chart shows, over the decade, we expect our oil and gas EBITDA to remain highly leveraged to price as we high-grade our portfolio and reduce production. This is enabled by EBITDA growth coming from just 6 material regions.

所以首先轉向我們的石油和天然氣業務。我們在石油和天然氣領域的戰略是最大化回報和現金流，通過降低成本、更高的利潤和更低的運營排放來創造彈性，專注於最好的桶，並通過在正確的時間和正確的價值進行撤資來實現高等級。所以讓我談談我們的石油和天然氣投資組合的三件事。首先，槓桿定價。今天的結果顯示我們的投資組合正在做它應該做的事情，從更高的價格中獲得了好處。正如第一張圖表所示，在過去十年中，隨著我們提高投資組合併減少產量，我們預計我們的石油和天然氣 EBITDA 將保持高度槓桿化來定價。這得益於僅來自 6 個重要地區的 EBITDA 增長。

Secondly, focus, the middle chart. Underpinned by a deep resource base, we are focusing our investment and leveraging our incumbency. Through 2030, we plan to allocate around 80% of all oil and gas investment in these 6 material regions, and we expect EBITDA to grow from them and represent around 90% of the total and 2030 that comes from oil and gas from just those 6.

其次，重點，中間圖表。在深厚的資源基礎的支持下，我們正在集中投資並利用我們的現有資源。到 2030 年，我們計劃將大約 80% 的石油和天然氣投資分配在這 6 個重要地區，我們預計 EBITDA 將從這些地區增長並佔總量的 90% 左右，到 2030 年，僅來自這 6 個地區的石油和天然氣.

Thirdly, higher unit margins. The third chart illustrates our evolving margin mix. It's the same chart we actually shared at our strategy update in February. And it demonstrates how unit margins are expected to grow by over 20% by 2030 relative to 2021 as we focus our investment in the higher-margin regions as we execute our plans to drive cost efficiency and as we high-grade through divestments in lower-margin regions. And this high-graded oil and gas portfolio, together with our EBITDA plans -- growth plans in Refining and in Bioenergy, gives us confidence in sustaining EBITDA from resilient hydrocarbons at around 2021 levels through 2025, aiming to hold this level to 2030.

第三，更高的單位利潤率。第三張圖表說明了我們不斷變化的利潤率組合。這與我們在 2 月份的戰略更新中實際共享的圖表相同。它展示了到 2030 年，單位利潤率預計將如何比 2021 年增長 20% 以上，因為我們將投資重點放在利潤率較高的地區，同時執行我們提高成本效率的計劃，以及通過撤資在低利潤率地區實現高品位。邊緣區域。這種高等級的石油和天然氣組合，連同我們的 EBITDA 計劃——煉油和生物能源的增長計劃，使我們有信心在 2021 年到 2025 年將彈性碳氫化合物的 EBITDA 維持在 2021 年左右的水平，並力爭將這一水平保持到 2030 年。

And we're making real progress in 4 areas in particular. First, in investment. By the end of 2024, we expect to start up a 7 -- a further 7 high-margin major projects. And to maximize value, we'll be flexible in our capital allocation. For instance, within our disciplined capital frame, we plan to increase investment in BPX Energy from around $1 billion in 2021 to around $1.7 billion in 2022. And here, we're leveraging a hopper of around 3,500 drilling locations, capable of delivering returns of over 30% at just $55 WTI and $3 Henry Hub.

我們特別在 4 個領域取得了真正的進展。首先，在投資方面。到2024年底，我們預計將啟動7個——另外7個高利潤的重大項目。為了實現價值最大化，我們將靈活地分配資本。例如，在我們嚴格的資本框架內，我們計劃將 BPX Energy 的投資從 2021 年的約 10 億美元增加到 2022 年的約 17 億美元。在這裡，我們利用約 3,500 個鑽井位置的料斗，能夠提供回報僅 55 美元的 WTI 和 3 美元的 Henry Hub 即可獲得超過 30% 的收益。

Second, reliability and efficiency. In the first half of 2022, plant reliability increased to over 95% and unit production costs fell by almost 11% compared to the same period last year. Third, exploration and renewal. We continue to selectively explore aiming to further enhance the portfolio. And so far this year, we've announced an oil discovery offshore Brazil, with the potential to become a new hub. And we participated in a gas discovery offshore Indonesia. And we strengthened our position offshore Canada, agreeing to acquire a 35% interest in the Bay du Nord discovery.

第二，可靠性和效率。 2022年上半年，工廠可靠性提高到95%以上，單位生產成本同比下降近11%。三是探索與更新。我們將繼續有選擇地探索以進一步增強產品組合。今年到目前為止，我們已經宣佈在巴西近海發現石油，有可能成為新的樞紐。我們參與了印度尼西亞近海的天然氣發現。我們鞏固了我們在加拿大境外的地位，同意收購北灣勘探區 35% 的權益。

Finally, portfolio optimization. This year, we have agreed to divest our Canadian Sunrise and [Pike] oil sand assets. We've created a new Angola focused company called Azule Energy, I think its first day is today, in a joint venture between Eni and ourselves, very exciting for Angola and for our 2 companies. And we've restructured our business in Iraq with PetroChina. So that's hydrocarbons. Let me turn now to 2 of our transition growth engines, starting with EV charging.

最後，投資組合優化。今年，我們同意剝離我們的 Canadian Sunrise 和 [Pike] 油砂資產。我們創建了一家專注於安哥拉的新公司，名為 Azule Energy，我認為它的第一天是今天，在 Eni 和我們自己的合資企業中，對安哥拉和我們的兩家公司來說非常令人興奮。我們已經與中石油重組了我們在伊拉克的業務。這就是碳氫化合物。現在讓我談談我們的兩個轉型增長引擎，從電動汽車充電開始。

Here, we aim to deliver around $2 billion of EBITDA by 2030, focusing on fleets and focusing on fast charging to on-the-go customers. With clear sources of competitive advantage underpin this. What are they? Our global network of 20,600 retail sites land, integrated convenience offers at our 2,200 strategic sites. our customer base with around 16 million loyalty customers and around 170,000 fleet customers. Our trading and shipping organization, which provides optimized and reliable electron sourcing.

在這裡，我們的目標是到 2030 年實現約 20 億美元的 EBITDA，專注於車隊並專注於為移動中的客戶提供快速充電。有明確的競爭優勢來源支持這一點。這些是什麼？我們由 20,600 個零售站點組成的全球網絡登陸我們的 2,200 個戰略站點，提供綜合便利服務。我們的客戶群擁有約 1600 萬忠誠客戶和約 170,000 名車隊客戶。我們的貿易和運輸組織，提供優化和可靠的電子採購。

Over time, one of the benefits of integration is expected to be the sourcing of electrons from our own renewable business. And here, we've already secured offshore wind licenses with over 5 gigawatts of capacity net to BP. And strategic relationships with partners like Volkswagen, like Uber, like DiDi, like Daimler Trucks. And we're accelerating our rollout plans. We now have around 16,000 charge points, up almost 50% since the same time last year. We've announced partnerships with Volkswagen and Iberdrola that have the potential to help achieve half of our targeted growth by 2025. And we're excited about potential opportunities in other regions like the United States.

隨著時間的推移，集成的好處之一預計將是從我們自己的可再生業務中採購電子。在這裡，我們已經為 BP 獲得了超過 5 吉瓦淨容量的海上風電許可證。以及與大眾、優步、滴滴、戴姆勒卡車等合作夥伴的戰略關係。我們正在加快推出計劃。我們現在有大約 16,000 個充電點，比去年同期增長了近 50%。我們已經宣布與大眾汽車和 Iberdrola 建立合作夥伴關係，這有可能幫助我們在 2025 年實現目標增長的一半。我們對美國等其他地區的潛在機會感到興奮。

Importantly, we have a distinctive focus on fast charging. Around 50% of our charge points are now rapid or ultrafast. And that's at least 50 kilowatts for rapid, more than 150 kilowatts for ultrafast. We recently became the leading provider of ultrafast charging in Germany, building on our leading position in the U.K. And by 2030, we expect around 90% of our 100,000 on-the-go chargers to be rapid or ultrafast, resulting in around 10 gigawatts of installed capacity.

重要的是，我們特別關注快速充電。現在，我們大約 50% 的充電點是快速或超快的。這至少是 50 千瓦的快速，超過 150 千瓦的超快。我們最近成為德國領先的超快充電供應商，鞏固了我們在英國的領先地位。到 2030 年，我們預計 100,000 個移動充電器中約有 90% 將是快速或超快充電器，從而產生約 10 吉瓦的電力安裝容量。

No what is 10 gigawatts in this context? This is the equivalent to around 30 billion EV miles driven per annum, 30 billion EV miles driven per annum, assuming just a 10% utilization of our network. And if you had 7-kilowatt charge points for the same number, that's 15x more mileage that will be driven. And we are rapidly growing electron sales, supporting by increasing utilization rates, the amount of electricity that we sold through EV charging rose more than twofold in the first half of 2022 compared to the previous year.

不，在這種情況下，10 吉瓦是什麼？假設我們的網絡利用率僅為 10%，這相當於每年行駛約 300 億英里的電動汽車里程，每年行駛 300 億英里的電動汽車里程。如果你有 7 千瓦的充電點，那麼行駛里程將增加 15 倍。我們正在快速增長電子銷售，通過提高利用率，我們通過電動汽車充電銷售的電量在 2022 年上半年比上一年增長了兩倍多。

Turning then to hydrogen. We see a huge opportunity given the anticipated and growing growth in global demand for low-carbon hydrogen. Our strategy is to leverage existing demand pools, often our own by the way, and develop advantaged production hubs around that, manufacturing green and blue hydrogen at scale to create competitive supply for global markets, and is underpinned by our distinctive sources of competitive advantage. What are they, you ask again.

然後轉向氫氣。鑑於全球對低碳氫的需求預期和不斷增長，我們看到了巨大的機遇。我們的戰略是利用現有的需求池，通常是我們自己的，並圍繞它開發優勢生產中心，大規模生產綠色和藍色氫，為全球市場創造有競爭力的供應，並以我們獨特的競爭優勢來源為基礎。它們是什麼，你再問一次。

Delivering and operating complex global scale major projects, our global trading capability and experience in building integrated value chains, our track record in building and maintaining partnerships and establishing long-term customer relationships, and we're actively progressing our business development and now have a global scale risked project hopper of over 1 MTPA of hydrogen production capacity and we have identified more than 2.5, 2.5 MTPA of potential customer demand, and this includes our recently announced strategic collaboration with Thyssenkrupp Steel to advance the decarbonization of steel production.

交付和運營複雜的全球規模的重大項目，我們在建立綜合價值鏈方面的全球貿易能力和經驗，我們在建立和維護合作夥伴關係以及建立長期客戶關係方面的記錄，我們正在積極推進我們的業務發展，現在擁有全球規模冒著超過 1 MTPA 的氫氣生產能力的項目漏斗，我們已經確定了超過 2.5、2.5 MTPA 的潛在客戶需求，這包括我們最近宣布與蒂森克虜伯鋼鐵公司的戰略合作，以推進鋼鐵生產的脫碳。

Initially, we are progressing projects that help decarbonize hydrogen feedstock to deliver low carbon hydrogen to our Rotterdam, to our Lingen, to our Gelsenkirchen and to our Castellon refineries. We're also helping to decarbonize industrial clusters, including in Texas and at Teesside in the U.K. And we're accelerating our aim to create cost-advantaged global production hubs. We've agreed, as you will have read, I think, to lead and operate the Asian Renewable Energy Hub, AREH, in Australia, where BP will hold a 40.5% stake.

最初，我們正在推進幫助氫原料脫碳的項目，以向我們的鹿特丹、我們的林根、我們的蓋爾森基興和我們的卡斯特利翁煉油廠提供低碳氫。我們還幫助實現工業集群的脫碳，包括德克薩斯州和英國的提賽德。我們正在加速實現創建具有成本優勢的全球生產中心的目標。正如您所讀到的，我們已經同意領導和運營位於澳大利亞的亞洲可再生能源中心 AREH，BP 將持有該中心 40.5% 的股份。

AREH has the potential to be one of the world's largest renewables and green hydrogen hubs that will help decarbonize the Australian market as well as supplying competitive green hydrogen and ammonia to major international users. This project has plans to reach up to 26 gigawatts of renewable energy. To put that in context, that's around 1/3 of all electricity generated in Australia in 2020. And it will target production of 1.6 million tonnes of green hydrogen or 9 million tonnes of green ammonia per annum. That's hydrogen at scale.

AREH 有潛力成為世界上最大的可再生能源和綠色氫中心之一，這將有助於澳大利亞市場脫碳，並為主要國際用戶提供具有競爭力的綠色氫和氨。該項目計劃達到 26 吉瓦的可再生能源。綜上所述，這大約是 2020 年澳大利亞總發電量的 1/3。其目標是每年生產 160 萬噸綠色氫或 900 萬噸綠色氨。那是大規模的氫氣。

To summarize, I hope you agree that today's results show that BP is focused on delivery. We are performing while transforming, doing exactly what we said we would do. The company is running well and it's continuing to strengthen. We have real strategic momentum in our transformation to an IEC. Our financial frame has clarity and discipline. It is unchanged and is doing what it is intended to do. And we are growing distributions, remaining acutely focused on delivering long-term value for our owners. And we believe more than ever that BP has the capabilities and the scale to help address that energy trilemma. And this is needed now more than ever.

總而言之，我希望您同意今天的結果表明 BP 專注於交付。我們在轉型的同時表演，完全按照我們所說的去做。公司運行良好，並且不斷壯大。我們在向 IEC 轉型方面擁有真正的戰略動力。我們的財務框架清晰而有紀律。它沒有改變，並且正在做它打算做的事情。我們正在增加分銷，始終專注於為我們的所有者提供長期價值。我們比以往任何時候都更相信 BP 有能力和規模來幫助解決能源三難困境。現在比以往任何時候都更需要這一點。

So thank you for listening. We should stop. And Murray and I will be delighted to take any questions that you have. So over to you, [Oli]. And Craig, we're running this aren't we? So let's start in the room, and start with Gordon. Great.

所以謝謝你的聆聽。我們應該停下來。穆雷和我將很高興回答您的任何問題。所以交給你了，[奧利]。克雷格，我們正在運行這個，不是嗎？所以讓我們從房間開始，從戈登開始。偉大的。

Do we need microphones for people in the room? Or are they okay? We do. So if we can get microphones people, that would be great. Thank you. Thanks, Gordon.

我們需要為房間裡的人使用麥克風嗎？或者他們還好嗎？我們的確是。因此，如果我們能得到麥克風的人，那就太好了。謝謝你。謝謝，戈登。

Gordon Gray of HSBC. With the cash balance of somewhere like $40 per barrel. The amount of excess cash flow at the moment is huge. Your distribution policy, with 40% of that going to the balance sheet. If the macro environment stays anything like it has been in recent quarters, the balance sheet delevers massively quickly. Can you give us a sense of how long you think -- or rather where you think you would like to take the balance sheet over time? And because at some point, you would imagine that 40% going to debt reduction will be unnecessary. So just a comment about the longer-term capital frame, I guess, beyond this year.

匯豐銀行的戈登·格雷。現金餘額約為每桶 40 美元。目前超額現金流量是巨大的。您的分配政策，其中 40% 進入資產負債表。如果宏觀環境與最近幾個季度一樣，資產負債表將迅速大幅去槓桿。你能告訴我們你想多長時間——或者更確切地說，隨著時間的推移，你認為你想把資產負債表放在哪裡？因為在某個時候，你會想像 40% 的債務減少是不必要的。所以只是對今年以後的長期資本框架的評論。

Very good. Good question for the CFO, I think.

很好。我認為 CFO 的問題很好。

Great. Gordon. Thanks for the question. Just back to financial frame, if I can. Point 1 is that we focus on a $40 world and that we make sure the dividend can be funded in a $40 world. That's critical to us. Point 2 then is the balance sheet, as you say. What's critical for us there, given the scale of our trading organization, is that we maintain a strong investment-grade credit rating. That's what's super important. We focus on the ratings agencies when we think about this, S&P in particular right now that have us newly affirmed at A minus. We need to continue to drive down drive down net debt as we move forward. That's why we're allocating 40% of surplus cash flow to debt reduction in 2022. Of course, we'll update the market in 2023 when we make a decision there.

偉大的。戈登。謝謝你的問題。如果可以的話，就回到財務框架。第 1 點是我們專注於 40 美元的世界，並且我們確保可以在 40 美元的世界中為股息提供資金。這對我們來說至關重要。正如你所說，第 2 點就是資產負債表。考慮到我們貿易組織的規模，對我們來說至關重要的是，我們保持強大的投資級信用評級。這就是超級重要的。當我們考慮到這一點時，我們關注評級機構，特別是標準普爾，現在我們新確認了 A 負。在我們前進的過程中，我們需要繼續壓低淨債務。這就是為什麼我們將 40% 的盈餘現金流分配給 2022 年的債務減免。當然，當我們在那裡做出決定時，我們會在 2023 年更新市場。

But it's all about strong investment-grade credit rating. S&P focuses on a $55 world, so we're focused on this lower-price world and ensuring that through cycle at a $55 world, we're able to maintain that strong investment-grade credit rating. And I'll let you use our rules of thumb to think about what that might be -- might mean relative to the ratings agencies. I hope that helps.

但這一切都與強大的投資級信用評級有關。標準普爾專注於 55 美元的世界，因此我們專注於這個價格較低的世界，並確保在 55 美元的世界週期內，我們能夠保持強勁的投資級信用評級。我會讓你使用我們的經驗法則來思考這可能是什麼 - 相對於評級機構可能意味著什麼。我希望這會有所幫助。

The only thing I'd add is the comment that we made during the tax, which is that -- and Murray -- is a big proponent of this, now is not the time to lose discipline. This is very, very important for us. And therefore, it's very important that we execute on the financial framework, which I hope is very, very clear in terms of its priorities, it's order of priorities and so on. So we're very focused on that.

我唯一要補充的是我們在稅收期間所做的評論，那就是——穆雷——是這一點的大力支持者，現在不是失去紀律的時候。這對我們來說非常非常重要。因此，我們在財務框架上執行非常重要，我希望在其優先級、優先級順序等方面非常非常清楚。所以我們非常關注這一點。

Let's keep going. And you might want to introduce yourself for people online, if you don't mind.

我們繼續吧。如果您不介意，您可能想在網上向人們介紹自己。

It's Martijn Rats at Morgan Stanley. I've got 2 questions, if I may, both related to the upstream. I was hoping you could say a few words about the CapEx increase from $1 billion to $1.7 billion in the U.S. shales business. Not specifically about U.S. shale, but sort of broadly about upstream CapEx. Sort of -- what sort of cost of capital do you use these days to evaluate those sort of oily type projects? And how do you make the trade-offs with other types of CapEx? And the second question I want to ask is, what do you think the outlook is for your business in the Gulf of Mexico, given some regulatory changes, licensing rounds? I have to say I found a little bit sort of difficult to read really what's going on, but I was wondering if you could say a few words about that.

是摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats。如果可以的話，我有 2 個問題都與上游有關。我希望你能談談美國頁岩業務的資本支出從 10 億美元增加到 17 億美元。不是專門針對美國頁岩油，而是大致針對上游資本支出。有點——這些天你用什麼樣的資本成本來評估那些油性類型的項目？您如何與其他類型的資本支出進行權衡？我想問的第二個問題是，鑑於一些監管變化和許可輪次，您認為您在墨西哥灣的業務前景如何？我不得不說我發現有點難以閱讀到底發生了什麼，但我想知道你是否能就此說幾句話。

Very good. I mean I think on the Upstream, in hydrocarbons overall, we've generally guided to between $9 billion and $10 billion of investment in the hydrocarbons business this decade. We are increasing investment into hydrocarbons at the margin. So we're probably in the process of allocating around $0.5 billion to things like the Haynesville in the U.S. The Haynesville is 11 Tcf of gas. It's right next to the market. So it's probably one of the lowest cost, lowest methane emissions gas in the United States. And obviously, it's a very flexible investment and we will allocate, are allocating, will allocate more capital to that.

很好。我的意思是，我認為在上游，總體而言，在碳氫化合物領域，我們在這十年中對碳氫化合物業務的投資一般在 90 億至 100 億美元之間。我們正在增加對碳氫化合物的邊際投資。因此，我們可能正在為美國的海恩斯維爾等項目分配約 5 億美元。海恩斯維爾的天然氣消耗量為 11 Tcf。它就在市場旁邊。所以它可能是美國成本最低、甲烷排放量最低的氣體之一。顯然，這是一項非常靈活的投資，我們將分配，正在分配，將分配更多的資金。

The returns in that business at anything like strip are significant. The returns that we're expecting from our oil and gas investments, our oil investments need to make over 20% rate of return at $60. So we're very focused on where we can, making decisions that allocate capital to where energy security can be helped and to where we can make good returns. We'll probably add a rig in the Gulf of Mexico this year, which takes me to your second question.

該業務的回報率是顯著的。我們期望從石油和天然氣投資中獲得的回報，我們的石油投資需要在 60 美元時獲得超過 20% 的回報率。因此，我們非常專注於我們可以做的決定，將資金分配到可以幫助能源安全的地方以及我們可以獲得良好回報的地方。今年我們可能會在墨西哥灣增加一個鑽井平台，這讓我想到了你的第二個問題。

The GoM continues to be a core business for. It's running well. We are investing in it. We've got 3 rigs going there right now. We're going to add a fourth. We've had one intervention vessel in the GoM. We're going to add a second. They're in the process of adding a second intervention vessel. There is some uncertainty around the leasing. The current -- what was a climate bill now, I think, an inflation proof bill or something, 725 pages, so I can't say I've read it all. It hasn't yet passed as well. So we need to wait on that. But it gives a nod to the importance of oil and gas. It gives a nod to leasing in the Gulf of Mexico. And I think is attempting to strike a balance, which I think is quite sensible and pragmatic between delivering energy security today, which is a hydrocarbon-based system for the United States. And at the same time, obviously, a lot of climate provisions, which will help our hydrogen business, our offshore wind business, our EV business in the U.S. Murray, anything I've missed?

GoM 仍然是其核心業務。它運行良好。我們正在投資它。我們現在有 3 台鑽機正在那裡。我們將添加第四個。我們在墨西哥灣有一艘干預船。我們將添加第二個。他們正在增加第二艘干預船。租賃存在一些不確定性。目前——我認為現在是氣候法案，是通脹證明法案之類的，有 725 頁，所以我不能說我已經閱讀了所有內容。也還沒有過去。所以我們需要等待。但它肯定了石油和天然氣的重要性。它對墨西哥灣的租賃表示贊同。而且我認為正在試圖取得平衡，我認為這在今天提供能源安全之間是非常明智和務實的，這對美國來說是一個基於碳氫化合物的系統。同時，很明顯，很多氣候條款將有助於我們的氫業務、海上風電業務、我們在美國默里的電動汽車業務，還有什麼我錯過的嗎？

Just very, very, very strong seismic that we've recently seen, lighting up new exploration opportunities that we didn't think we'd have in the past, 7 targets around Thunder Horse as an example, that we wouldn't have seen in the past. But new algorithms, new seismic have been done, and so there's interesting stuff there. So I think along with a very solid base of 4 moving to 5 big hubs, we're now starting to see further exploration opportunities that, I hope, allow us to maintain the Gulf of Mexico through the decade and maybe beyond would be fantastic.

我們最近看到的非常、非常、非常強烈的地震，激發了我們過去認為不會有的新勘探機會，例如雷馬周圍的 7 個目標，我們不會看到在過去。但是新算法，新地震已經完成，所以那裡有有趣的東西。因此，我認為，隨著 4 個轉移到 5 個大型樞紐的堅實基礎，我們現在開始看到進一步的勘探機會，我希望這能讓我們在十年甚至更長時間內維持墨西哥灣的發展，這將是非常棒的。

Certainly 1 of the 6 core regions, as you might imagine, and definitely will be a core region in 2030 just like it is today. We'll head to this side of the room, and we'll come back. Yes, please, and then Lydia.

就像你想像的那樣，肯定是 6 個核心區域中的 1 個，並且肯定會像今天一樣在 2030 年成為核心區域。我們將前往房間的這一側，然後我們會回來。是的，請，然後是莉迪亞。

Chris Kuplent from Bank of America. I wonder whether you can talk a little bit about your outlook on Henry Hub in particular. You've already mentioned the Haynesville offering some very exciting returns at the margin. And alongside that, perhaps comment on your hedging strategy regarding your exposure to Henry Hub. I wonder Haynesville seems to me in a great place in terms of takeaway capacity, how you view the world as you refer to it, Bernard, the energy trilemma seems like it's locking Europe into a higher for longer gas price environment. What's your view? How long would it take for that to translate to a higher for longer Henry Hub price environment and your strategy around that would be interesting?

美國銀行的克里斯·庫普倫特。我想知道您是否可以特別談談您對 Henry Hub 的看法。您已經提到海恩斯維爾提供了一些非常令人興奮的邊際回報。除此之外，也許可以評論一下您對 Henry Hub 敞口的對沖策略。我想知道海恩斯維爾在我看來在外賣能力方面處於一個很好的位置，你如何看待你所指的世界，伯納德，能源三難困境似乎將歐洲鎖定在更高的天然氣價格環境中。你有什麼看法？需要多長時間才能轉化為更高的亨利中心價格環境，您的策略會很有趣？

And another 1 on North America briefly, your Husky Energy deal or let's call it swap. I don't think either of you have announced any financial flows, but I'd be interested to hear how excited you are about opening up effectively potentially a new core region offshore East Canada, and how that fits into your high-grading strategy that you laid out, Bernard?

還有一個關於北美的簡短說明，你的赫斯基能源交易，或者我們稱之為交換。我認為你們中的任何一個都沒有宣布任何資金流動，但我很想听聽你們對有效地開放一個潛在的加拿大東部近海新核心地區的興奮程度，以及這如何符合你們的高等級戰略你佈置好了，伯納德？

Very good. I'll let Murray talk about hedging in the U.S. I mean the outlook for Henry Hub in the U.S. as with all commodities and commodity markets right now is probably largely uncertain gas. I think, in particular, globally is -- we expect to remain elevated and for there to be quite a bit of volatility. Storage levels, I think, are probably particularly low in the United States right now. There is limited capacity to turn on coal compared to the past because a lot of coal has been retired. On the flip side, Freeport is down, so that's relieving some of the pressure. There's been a heat wave across the U.S., which has drawn hard, and you're seeing prices up at $8 today.

很好。我會讓 Murray 談談在美國的對沖。我的意思是，Henry Hub 在美國的前景與目前所有的大宗商品和大宗商品市場一樣，在很大程度上可能是不確定的天然氣。我認為，特別是在全球範圍內——我們預計將保持高位，並且會有相當大的波動。我認為，目前美國的存儲水平可能特別低。與過去相比，煤炭的發電能力有限，因為大量煤炭已經退役。另一方面，自由港倒閉了，所以這減輕了一些壓力。美國各地都出現了熱浪，這已經很嚴重了，今天你看到價格上漲到 8 美元。

So I think it all depends. Freeport needs to come back. We need to see what the winter looks like in terms of cold weather. Storage probably could do with being a bit higher than it is today. But those investments that we're making in the Haynesville will be very, very quick payback investments without question. High-quality, low emissions, and it seems like a robust market for the time being. Murray, hedging and anything you'd add on the Haynesville, then you can go to Husky?

所以我認為這一切都取決於。自由港需要回來。我們需要看看寒冷天氣下冬天的樣子。存儲可能會比現在高一點。但毫無疑問，我們在海恩斯維爾進行的那些投資將是非常、非常快速的投資回報。高品質、低排放，目前看來是一個強勁的市場。默里，對沖和任何你想在海恩斯維爾添加的東西，然後你可以去赫斯基？

Yes. I think on BPX and our hedging strategy, generally, we're trying to ensure cash flow and ensure that we get a dividend so we can pay back the acquisition price of a few years ago. So we're hedged out about 18 months right now, 1.5 years. Happy with that, and it's along with the increase in CapEx that Bernard mentioned, we're still getting a dividend out of BPX, about $1.2 billion this year due to the hedges. So we feel very comfortable continuing with that strategy of locking in returns, locking in cash flow and making sure that we pay back the dividend, pay back the original purchase price that we had a few years ago from BHP.

是的。我認為就 BPX 和我們的對沖策略而言，總的來說，我們正在努力確保現金流並確保我們獲得股息，以便我們能夠償還幾年前的收購價格。所以我們現在被排除在外大約 18 個月，1.5 年。對此感到高興，並且隨著伯納德提到的資本支出的增加，我們仍然從 BPX 獲得股息，由於對沖，今年約為 12 億美元。因此，我們繼續採用鎖定回報、鎖定現金流並確保我們償還股息、償還我們幾年前從必和必拓獲得的原始購買價格的策略感到非常自在。

As far as Husky, yes, we're very excited about Bay du Nord, fantastic discovery. Looking forward to opening up. I think maybe we'll describe it as another hub in an extended Gulf of Mexico over time. I'm winking at you, as I say that. Very extended. But as a Canadian, I can get away with that, can't I? So no, we're very excited about it. It's a lovely reservoir. We're happy to take the 35% interest in that and work with the operator Equinor. And we'll talk to you more about it once we close, because then we can actually say stuff right now. We're on the outside. But very excited, Chris.

就赫斯基而言，是的，我們對北灣的奇妙發現感到非常興奮。期待開放。我想隨著時間的推移，也許我們會將其描述為墨西哥灣延伸的另一個樞紐。我在對你眨眼，就像我說的那樣。很延長。但作為一個加拿大人，我可以逃脫懲罰，不是嗎？所以不，我們對此感到非常興奮。這是一個可愛的水庫。我們很高興獲得 35% 的權益並與運營商 Equinor 合作。一旦我們關閉，我們將與您討論更多關於它的信息，因為那時我們實際上可以現在就說些什麼。我們在外面。但非常興奮，克里斯。

Good. Great. just because we're going into oil in Canada, it doesn't mean we're going to go exploring in Ireland, I would add. But...

好的。偉大的。我要補充說，僅僅因為我們要在加拿大開採石油，並不意味著我們要在愛爾蘭進行勘探。但...

You did get license rounds in the [IRC]. didn't you?

您確實在 [IRC] 中獲得了許可。你不是嗎？

Yes, true. Close. Lydia?

是的。關。莉迪亞？

It's Lydia Rainforth from Barclays. And 2 questions, if I could. First one, just coming back to that idea is probably the largest gap I can remember between planning assumptions and where existing macro prices are. So what challenges does that present to you as an [ExCo] side of things? Do you actually end up talking through other things you should accelerate or things that you're risk missing out on or other opportunities to accelerate? So just how that creates challenges, if it does at all?

是來自巴克萊的 Lydia Rainforth。如果可以的話，還有 2 個問題。第一個，回到這個想法可能是我記得的規劃假設與現有宏觀價格之間的最大差距。那麼，作為 [ExCo] 的一方，這給您帶來了哪些挑戰？你最終是否真的談論了其他你應該加速的事情，或者你有可能錯過的事情或其他加速的機會？那麼，如果確實如此，那又是如何帶來挑戰的呢？

And then the second one on cash returns to shareholders. And I appreciate this is a little bit of a difficult question in a context of also a cost-of-living crisis as well. But how far can that number -- the cash returns to shareholders go? You've obviously increased the dividend this time around, what's the threshold for looking at further dividend increases? Why the $3.5 billion for this time? And just in terms of going forward, where that number can go to?

然後是第二個關於給股東的現金回報。我很欣賞在生活成本危機的背景下，這也是一個有點困難的問題。但是這個數字——股東的現金回報能走多遠呢？你這次顯然增加了股息，看進一步增加股息的門檻是多少？為什麼這次要花 35 億美元？就未來而言，這個數字可以去哪裡？

If Murray will take the planning prices, Lydia, I'll have a go at the second question, and he will correct me. I mean in terms of cost of living, I think we all have to recognize that it's a very, very difficult place for -- you and I talked about this, it's a very, very difficult place for people, not just by the way, in the U.K. but right across the world right now. That's something that is absolutely that -- we understand that. We get it. Our people inside the company, get it. They want to help. And so the question becomes what can we do to help? And of course, what we do here in the U.K. is we're back in Britain. We said we're going to invest up to GBP 18 billion in Britain this decade. We're going to continue to do that. The majority of that is going to be in the energy transition, but there's also going to be a lot going into energy security for today in hydrocarbons, and that's with the Vorlich development that we're taking to the next stage in the North Sea as one example.

如果 Murray 接受計劃價格，Lydia，我會嘗試第二個問題，他會糾正我的。我的意思是就生活成本而言，我認為我們都必須認識到這是一個非常非常困難的地方 - 你和我談到了這個，這對人們來說是一個非常非常困難的地方，不僅僅是順便說一句，在英國，但現在在世界各地。這絕對是——我們理解這一點。我們懂了。我們公司內部的人，明白了。他們想幫忙。所以問題變成了我們能做些什麼來幫助？當然，我們在英國所做的是我們回到了英國。我們說過，這十年我們將在英國投資高達 180 億英鎊。我們將繼續這樣做。其中大部分將發生在能源轉型中，但今天碳氫化合物的能源安全也將有很多問題，這就是我們在北海進入下一階段的 Vorlich 開發項目一個例子。

The second thing that we do is we're trying to create jobs. So we think we'll create over 10,000 jobs in Britain over this decade through those investment plans. Net-zero Teesside power project alone will create 3,000 jobs during construction, 1,000 during operation. We just announced this week that we're going to put our global R&D center for battery research in Britain, in Pangbourne. And the third thing that we do is we pay taxes. And when prices are higher, rightly so, we pay higher taxes. And now we have an energy profits levy, which means that we'll pay even more taxes on top of what we had already planned, and that's what we will do.

我們做的第二件事是我們正在努力創造就業機會。因此，我們認為通過這些投資計劃，我們將在這十年內在英國創造超過 10,000 個工作崗位。僅淨零提賽德電力項目將在建設期間創造 3,000 個工作崗位，在運營期間創造 1,000 個工作崗位。我們本周剛剛宣布，我們將把我們的全球電池研究研發中心設在英國的 Pangbourne。我們做的第三件事是納稅。當價格更高時，我們支付更高的稅，這是正確的。現在我們徵收能源利潤稅，這意味著我們將在我們已經計劃的基礎上支付更多的稅，這就是我們將要做的。

In terms of cash returns into shareholders, of course, we have to remind ourselves that it's just 2 years ago that we had to cut our dividend and take a difficult decision to cut the dividend by 50%. If you look at the numbers today, the $3.5 billion that we've announced in buybacks for the second quarter, that takes us to exactly 60% of the cumulative surplus cash that we've had since beginning this program. I think it was $17.1 billion of surplus and the amount today takes us to exactly 60%. So Lydia, on that, we're simply following the math.

當然，在給股東的現金回報方面，我們必須提醒自己，僅僅在兩年前，我們不得不削減股息，並做出將股息削減 50% 的艱難決定。如果你看看今天的數字，我們在第二季度宣布的 35 億美元回購，正好是我們自啟動該計劃以來所擁有的累計盈餘現金的 60%。我認為這是 171 億美元的盈餘，而今天的數量正好使我們達到了 60%。因此，Lydia，在這一點上，我們只是按照數學計算。

And on the dividend increase, what you've seen is we want that #1 priority, resilient dividend. We wanted to be anchored in that word resilient. Therefore, we say $40 world because we think that is the prudent way to plan our company. You've seen the reduction in share count, which means a reduced dividend burden. Murray has also taken down gross debt, which has taken down our interest expense. And the balance of all of that is that we can then afford a 10% dividend increase, while keeping the balance point -- importantly, keeping that balance point constant. And given the operating performance of the company and all of the things that we look at, we felt that was a prudent thing to do. So hopefully, I haven't explained any of that incorrectly. You can correct me or move to the planning prices.

在股息增加方面，你所看到的是我們想要第一優先的、有彈性的股息。我們希望以“有彈性”這個詞為基礎。因此，我們說 40 美元世界，因為我們認為這是規劃我們公司的審慎方式。您已經看到股票數量的減少，這意味著減少了股息負擔。默里還降低了總債務，這降低了我們的利息支出。所有這一切的平衡是，我們可以承受 10% 的股息增長，同時保持平衡點——重要的是，保持平衡點不變。考慮到公司的經營業績和我們所看到的所有事情，我們認為這是一件謹慎的事情。所以希望，我沒有錯誤地解釋任何這些。您可以更正我或轉到計劃價格。

Brilliant answer, Bernard. On the planning prices, Lydia, it's important, we'd like to look through cycle. So if you look back 2 years ago, oil price was negative. We didn't change how we did things. price is higher now. We're not changing things. So we look through cycle, we have our return hurdles. We invest into those. On the margin, where does planning change on the margin, you'll pursue options faster in fast payback. So you'll look at doing well work, adding well work rigs, like Bernard talked about in the Gulf of Mexico. You look at accelerating from some short-cycle stuff inside BPX as well. But that's really on the margin relative to the overall shape of the business. We focus on through cycle and a $60 world to us seems a sensible thing to focus on through cycle.

絕妙的答案，伯納德。關於計劃價格，莉迪亞，這很重要，我們想看看周期。所以如果你回顧兩年前，油價是負的。我們沒有改變我們做事的方式。現在價格更高了。我們不會改變事情。因此，我們審視週期，我們有我們的回報障礙。我們投資於那些。在邊際上，計劃在邊際上發生了哪些變化，您將更快地尋求選擇以快速獲得回報。所以你會著眼於做好工作，增加工作台，就像伯納德在墨西哥灣談到的那樣。你也會從 BPX 內部的一些短週期的東西中看到加速。但這相對於業務的整體形態而言確實是微不足道的。我們專注於整個週期，一個 60 美元的世界對我們來說似乎是一個明智的事情來關注整個週期。

We should probably go online, get a couple of people. Jason Kenney is on Zoom, I'm told, and then we'll go to maybe Oswald Clint on audio. So go to Jason. Jason, if we can bring you into the room. I think it's possible with the technology. Can you hear us, see us? Not yet. Maybe that's Jason. No. Yes. Not yet. So let's go -- there you are. There you are. Jason, good to see you. Not at all. No problem. Go for it. Please, Jason.

我們可能應該上網，找幾個人。有人告訴我，Jason Kenney 正在 Zoom 上，然後我們可能會去找 Oswald Clint 的音頻。所以去找傑森。傑森，如果我們能帶你進房間的話。我認為技術是可能的。你能聽到我們，看到我們嗎？還沒有。也許那是傑森。不，是的。還沒有。所以我們走吧——你來了。你在這。傑森，很高興見到你。一點也不。沒問題。去吧。拜託了，傑森。

So hydrogen, phenomenal positioning, Bernard, massive scale, particularly in Australia, also Spain, Portugal, U.K. When do you expect to first outline your investment frame for that? What kind of money is it going to take? What kind of earnings you're going to generate the kind of contribution to the bottom line? When do you see you being able to define that? Secondly, on the transport solution, I mean, obviously, Australia is particularly significant, but you need to get those green hydrogen molecules to other parts of the world. There is a rising debate about the toxicity of ammonia and other transport mechanisms. I'm wondering if you're looking into solid state transport opportunities. And the third one, if I may, just on new businesses. I think 4 of the large cap integrated are now invested into fusion startups? Is it something that BP could be interested in as well?

所以氫，驚人的定位，伯納德，大規模，特別是在澳大利亞，還有西班牙，葡萄牙，英國。你預計什麼時候首先概述你的投資框架？需要什麼樣的錢？你將產生什麼樣的收益，對底線做出什麼樣的貢獻？你什麼時候看到你能夠定義它？其次，關於運輸解決方案，我的意思是，顯然，澳大利亞特別重要，但您需要將那些綠色氫分子帶到世界其他地方。關於氨的毒性和其他運輸機制的爭論越來越多。我想知道您是否正在尋找固態運輸機會。第三個，如果可以的話，只是關於新業務。我認為現在整合的大盤中有 4 家投資於融合初創公司？ BP 也會對此感興趣嗎？

Very good. Okay, Jason, I think very quickly, I think on hydrogen, I'll collapse both questions into one. So Anja has joined us. She's been working hard on what we've got, what our plans are, and one of the things coming out of that is that there will be a real focus on offshore wind and a real focus on hydrogen in the low-carbon energy space. So you will see that coming. In terms of when we will talk about the transport solutions, and you're right, transport is one of the big challenges for green hydrogen to create a global market in the long run. Not everybody wants ammonia. When it arrives at the other side, some people need hydrogen, it's got to be recracked into hydrogen. There are lots of different challenges. The teams are looking at that.

很好。好的，傑森，我想得很快，我想關於氫，我會把兩個問題合二為一。所以 Anja 加入了我們。她一直在努力研究我們所擁有的，我們的計劃是什麼，其中一件事就是將真正關注海上風能，並真正關注低碳能源領域的氫。所以你會看到它的到來。就我們何時談論運輸解決方案而言，您是對的，從長遠來看，運輸是綠色氫能創造全球市場的一大挑戰。不是每個人都想要氨。當它到達另一邊時，有些人需要氫氣，它必須被重新分解成氫氣。有很多不同的挑戰。團隊正在考慮這一點。

In terms of when we'll update on that on our financial frame on our outlook, that will be in February of next year when we do our annual sort of update, and Anja will be joining us then to share her insights and her updated look at things. In terms of new businesses, I think one of the things that we are trying to do is get very, very focused. We've talked about our 5 transition growth engines. That's where the energy of the company is and needs to be. We may do some knowledge investing, if you call it, at the margin through our ventures business. But we are -- there's a world of opportunity out there and one of the ways to slow down the transition is to try to do too much. So we're very focused on those growth engines, those 5, and we need to deliver on those, and they are the things that matter to us. So that's really where we're focused, Jason, on those 5. So thank you for your question. Let's go to Oswald Clint of Bernstein. please, if we can hear Oswald.

至於我們何時會在財務框架上更新我們的展望，那將是在明年 2 月我們進行年度更新時，Anja 將加入我們，分享她的見解和更新後的外觀在事情上。在新業務方面，我認為我們正在努力做的事情之一就是非常非常專注。我們已經討論了我們的 5 個轉型增長引擎。這就是公司的能量所在和需要的地方。我們可能會通過我們的風險投資業務進行一些知識投資，如果你說的話。但我們是——那裡有一個充滿機會的世界，減緩過渡的方法之一就是嘗試做太多事情。所以我們非常關注那些增長引擎，這5個，我們需要實現這些，它們對我們來說很重要。 Jason，這就是我們真正關注的地方。所以，謝謝你的問題。讓我們去看看伯恩斯坦的奧斯瓦爾德·克林特。拜託，如果我們能聽到奧斯瓦爾德的話。

Yes. If you can hear me?

是的。如果你能聽到我的話？

Yes, go ahead, Oswald.

是的，繼續，奧斯瓦爾德。

Yes. Firstly, just on customers and products. I think you called out in the release, the inflation impacting margins and costs and actual customer purchasing behavior. You do have 200 more strategic convenience sites year-over-year. So I wanted to get a sense of what that's changing purchasing behavior is. If you could flesh that a little bit more. Is it North America? Or is it affecting your India growth strategy here? That would be interesting on the first slide.

是的。首先，僅針對客戶和產品。我認為您在新聞稿中指出，通貨膨脹會影響利潤率和成本以及實際的客戶購買行為。您確實每年增加了 200 個戰略便利站點。所以我想了解正在改變的購買行為是什麼。如果你能多肉一點。是北美嗎？或者它是否會影響您的印度增長戰略？這在第一張幻燈片上會很有趣。

And then secondly, I mean, I know you don't believe in carving out pieces of the business, additional guidance. But it's interesting to know around combining [both of these this week]. It looks like around 8x EBITDA, BP trading on 2.5x EBITDA. That would put your business on -- $10 billion, if not, $20 billion closer to 2030 for a business you have #1 position in China and India. So I'm just curious, does your thinking evolving any way when you see such transactions? Or should we just assume we let all come together, it comes out through the DPS line and the buyback line over time.

其次，我的意思是，我知道你不相信分割業務，額外的指導。但有趣的是要知道結合[本週這兩者]。看起來大約是 8 倍 EBITDA，BP 以 2.5 倍 EBITDA 交易。這將使您的企業在 2030 年接近 100 億美元，如果不是，200 億美元用於您在中國和印度排名第一的企業。所以我很好奇，當你看到這樣的交易時，你的想法有什麼變化嗎？或者我們應該假設我們讓所有人走到一起，它會隨著時間的推移通過 DPS 線和回購線出現。

Great. Murray, I'll let you take the Castrol question. In terms of customer behavior, the reality, Oswald, is that it's a relatively complex picture as you look across the various customer pools that we have. So I think gasoline sales are down relative to pre-COVID, down relative to 2019. And of course, it's very hard to get a true sense of what is driving that? Is it price? Is it changing customer behaviors and patterns? Is it the impact of people worried about inflation and a recession today? So we're seeing that on gasoline.

偉大的。默里，我會讓你回答嘉實多的問題。就客戶行為而言，奧斯瓦爾德的現實是，當您查看我們擁有的各種客戶群時，情況相對複雜。因此，我認為汽油銷量相對於 COVID 之前有所下降，相對於 2019 年有所下降。當然，很難真正了解是什麼推動了這一點？是價格嗎？它是否正在改變客戶的行為和模式？是今天人們擔心通貨膨脹和經濟衰退的影響嗎？所以我們在汽油上看到了這一點。

On the other side, diesel sales are up 5% in the United States. So diesel is quite resilient, and our refining system is actually biased towards diesel, which is one of the reasons that you will have seen some strong numbers today in the refining side. Diesel tends to be a bit more recession-proof, shall we say, than others. So diesel sales in the United States are up. Aviation fuel is way up quarter-on-quarter. It's up over 60% quarter-on-quarter. So aviation is really rebounding, but it's still not back to pre-pandemic levels.

另一方面，美國的柴油銷量增長了 5%。所以柴油是相當有彈性的，我們的煉油系統實際上偏向於柴油，這是你今天在煉油方面看到一些強勁數據的原因之一。容我們說，柴油往往比其他柴油更能抵禦經濟衰退。因此，美國的柴油銷量上升。航空燃料環比增長。環比增長超過 60%。因此，航空業確實在反彈，但仍未恢復到大流行前的水平。

The convenience business is actually doing relatively well. And as you said, we've added strategic sites. It's actually doing relatively well. If you adjusted for ForEx, it's one of the strongest quarters that we've had. We have now, I think, 16 million loyalty customers. The BPMe app had the greatest number of transactions in May that it's ever had, and those customers come back more and more and we are seeing basket sizes on the up. So it's a mixed picture, and I think it's very early to draw too many conclusions other than that this integrated business -- and maybe Murray will talk about that in the Castrol question. This integrated business where we can see value shifting up and down the value chain, remains a very, very important part. So hopefully, that gives you a little sense on the customer side. Murray, Castrol?

便利業務實際上做得比較好。正如你所說，我們已經添加了戰略站點。它實際上做得比較好。如果您針對 ForEx 進行了調整，這是我們經歷過的最強勁的季度之一。我認為，我們現在擁有 1600 萬忠誠客戶。 BPMe 應用程序在 5 月份的交易量是有史以來最多的，這些客戶越來越多地回來，我們看到購物籃的規模在增加。所以這是一個好壞參半的情況，我認為現在得出太多結論還為時過早，而不是這個綜合業務——也許默里會在嘉實多的問題中談到這一點。這種我們可以看到價值在價值鏈上上下移動的綜合業務仍然是非常非常重要的部分。因此，希望這能讓您在客戶方面有所了解。默里，嘉實多？

Yes. I think, Os, nice to hear your voice. You know that we think integration is the way to go and that we create more value that way. That sits with each of the businesses we have right now. Castrol in particular, has lots of integration value with EV fluids as those emerge, including the manufacturing side as well. Additionally, Castrol has tremendous upside. It's got huge headwinds right now on base oil price because of the price of oil passing out on the customers has lagged. The additive shortage is starting to move behind us. We have the opportunity to high-grade the warehouses around the world. We have the opportunity to decrease SKUs massively that will drive efficiency into the business. And as markets rebound, especially in Asia from COVID, we'll get back to advertising, and we should start getting more market share.

是的。我想，奧斯，很高興聽到你的聲音。你知道我們認為整合是要走的路，我們以這種方式創造更多價值。這與我們現在擁有的每一項業務都息息相關。尤其是嘉實多，隨著電動汽車油液的出現，它具有很多整合價值，包括製造方面。此外，嘉實多還有巨大的上漲空間。由於傳遞給客戶的石油價格滯後，它現在在基礎油價格方面遇到了巨大的阻力。添加劑短缺開始落後於我們。我們有機會為世界各地的倉庫提供高檔次。我們有機會大量減少 SKU，從而提高業務效率。隨著市場反彈，特別是在亞洲，我們將重新開始做廣告，我們應該開始獲得更多的市場份額。

So we see a tremendous opportunity for profit growth in Castrol that's built into the numbers that we talk about. And we think we'll create value by having it together with BP. And so, yes, the answer to your question is, yes, you'll see that through dividends and share buybacks.

因此，我們看到嘉實多利潤增長的巨大機會，這是我們談論的數字中所包含的。我們認為我們將通過與 BP 合作來創造價值。所以，是的，你的問題的答案是，是的，你會通過股息和股票回購看到這一點。

Interestingly, Murray, and I think it's an extraordinary number. I think between 60% and 70% of the vehicle manufacturers in the EV space are recommending and filling Castrol coolants into the system on day 1. 60% to 70% in this new emerging market of coolants for batteries. It's pretty extraordinary number, and I think it says a lot to what the team has done, which is why we're doubling down on the R&D in that space. Because obviously, it's a source of growth and we're seeing that in the EV charging business.

有趣的是，默里，我認為這是一個非凡的數字。我認為 EV 領域 60% 到 70% 的汽車製造商在第一天推薦嘉實多冷卻劑並將其添加到系統中。在這個新興的電池冷卻劑市場中，這一比例為 60% 到 70%。這是一個非常不尋常的數字，我認為這說明了團隊所做的很多事情，這就是我們在該領域加倍投入研發的原因。因為很明顯，它是增長的源泉，我們在電動汽車充電業務中看到了這一點。

Thank you, Oswald. I think we'll go to Irene here in the room, and then we'll keep going, Lucas and Amy and -- great. Yes. Great. Go for it, Irene.

謝謝你，奧斯瓦爾德。我想我們會在房間裡去找艾琳，然後我們會繼續前進，盧卡斯和艾米 - 太好了。是的。偉大的。去吧，艾琳。

It's Irene Himona, Societe Generale. My first question, if I can just clarify a couple of numbers. What was the provision relating to the Freeport LNG outage in these numbers? And what is your estimated cost this year of the U.K. windfall tax, please? And then my second question was actually on Russia. You've exited and the West en masse is trying to exit and unplug Russian energy. As a major oil and gas producer, can you try and explain to us what are the challenges you're facing in this situation, whether that be logistical or operational financing? Just to try and understand the gravity or not of what we're trying to do here.

我是法國興業銀行的 Irene Himona。我的第一個問題，如果我能澄清幾個數字。這些數字中與自由港液化天然氣中斷有關的規定是什麼？請問您今年的英國意外之財稅的估計成本是多少？然後我的第二個問題實際上是關於俄羅斯的。你已經退出了，整個西方正試圖退出並切斷俄羅斯的能源。作為主要的石油和天然氣生產商，您能否嘗試向我們解釋一下您在這種情況下面臨的挑戰，無論是物流還是運營融資？只是為了嘗試了解我們在這裡嘗試做的事情的嚴重性。

Very good, Irene. I think only you could put Freeport and windfall tax in 1 question, but you get full marks for ingenuity on that. Murray, maybe have a go at Russia, but we can do it together. Just on Freeport, we're not providing a number. But what we are seeing is that the best -- management's best estimate of the full impact of the Freeport outage is in today's accounts. okay? So full impact. Our best judgment is in today's accounts.

很好，艾琳。我認為只有您可以將自由港和意外之財稅放在 1 個問題中，但您在這方面的獨創性得到滿分。穆雷，也許可以去俄羅斯試一試，但我們可以一起做。就在自由港，我們沒有提供號碼。但我們所看到的是，管理層對自由港停電全面影響的最佳估計是在今天的賬目中。好的？如此全面的影響。我們最好的判斷是在今天的賬目中。

And secondly, on the windfall tax, you will have seen a number in our accounts, that is not the estimated cost of the windfall tax, that is an accounting issue around deferred taxes and the changes in valuation and so on and so forth. You'll have seen our estimate of tax increase for the second half of the year, and we will provide what the number is when we report our taxes at the end of the year. You're a tax expert, you can correct me on that, and then talk about Russia.

其次，關於暴利稅，你會在我們的賬目中看到一個數字，它不是暴利稅的估計成本，而是關於遞延稅和估值變化等的會計問題等等。您將看到我們對下半年增稅的估計，我們將在年底報告稅收時提供數字。你是稅務專家，你可以糾正我，然後談談俄羅斯。

Great. I'll just leave that one alone. Russia challenges in the systems, obviously, energy provision. Russian oil is about back to where it was prior to the conflict. Products remain lower. So products coming out of Russia, especially diesel, are a challenge for Europe and the rest of the world. And then obviously, natural gas with flows of natural gas being down at, I think, 20% of historic levels on Nord Stream, that's -- those are really the biggest impacts and that's just creating volatility inside the market with low supplies. So that's really the principal impact that we see across our portfolio and really the world right now.

偉大的。我就不管那個了。俄羅斯在系統方面面臨挑戰，顯然是能源供應。俄羅斯石油即將恢復到衝突前的水平。產品繼續走低。因此，來自俄羅斯的產品，尤其是柴油，對歐洲和世界其他地區都是一個挑戰。然後很明顯，我認為，天然氣流量下降到北溪歷史水平的 20%，這確實是最大的影響，這只會在供應不足的情況下在市場內部造成波動。因此，這確實是我們在我們的投資組合和現在的世界中看到的主要影響。

There's a bit of loss of other products like iron ore, et cetera. We're well diversified in our sources of that, so that's not really impacting us. So I think it's principally products and natural gas are the key impacts that we see at this stage.

鐵礦石等其他產品也有一些損失。我們的來源很多樣化，所以這並沒有真正影響到我們。所以我認為主要是產品和天然氣是我們現階段看到的主要影響。

Thank you, Murray. Thank you, Irene. We'll go to Lucas and Amy.

謝謝你，默里。謝謝你，艾琳。我們要去盧卡斯和艾米。

Lucas Herrmann from BNP Exane, and congrats to see a very strong result. Trading, I wanted to ask about if I might, Murray. Could you just -- trading has obviously had a very good 6 months. Typically, you talk about 2% add to return on capital as a consequence of trading. Can you give us some idea what the run rate might actually be if we looked at first half trading income and how it's impacted numbers? And just staying with trading for a moment, volatility has been pretty extreme. Back end of last year within LNG, as an example, you elected to take down volumes, take down trading in that business to some degree. Just how volatility is impacting the way you think about the trading business at the moment because not only the opportunity is large, but obviously, the risks are pretty substantial as well.

來自 BNP Exane 的 Lucas Herrmann，祝賀您取得了非常強勁的成績。交易，我想問問我是否可以，默里。你能不能 - 交易顯然有一個非常好的 6 個月。通常，您會談論交易導致資本回報增加 2%。如果我們查看上半年的交易收入以及它如何影響數字，您能給我們一些想法嗎？僅僅停留片刻，波動性就非常極端。以去年年底的液化天然氣為例，您選擇減少交易量，在一定程度上減少該業務的交易。波動性如何影響您目前對交易業務的看法，因為不僅機會很大，而且顯然風險也相當大。

And then secondly, Bernard, could you just give us a wrap on projects? You didn't mention Mad Dog. You didn't mention Tangguh. I presume that with just an oversight rather than -- or an emission rather than anything else, but where are we in terms of progress? And on projects, when are you expecting to take first cargoes from Coral?

其次，伯納德，你能給我們介紹一下項目嗎？你沒有提到瘋狗。你沒有提到唐古。我認為這只是一個疏忽而不是 - 或排放而不是其他任何東西，但我們在進展方面在哪裡？在項目方面，您預計何時從 Coral 接收第一批貨物？

Very good. Great. Murray, trading.

很好。偉大的。默里，交易。

Yes. Lucas, I'm not going to guide on run rate. We'll give you our exceptional and average quarter for oil and gas. And of course, you had double exceptional in them. The first half, obviously, it's above the 2% impact that we've talked about. I'll let you decide how you'd like to model that, but we don't guide that specifically. Apologies volatility, you're right on natural gas, volatility is the big challenge with trading right now. The way that we really think about it is our job is to provide energy flows, first and foremost, 100 cargoes into Europe to help. And as you do that, you hedge those cargoes to make sure that your profits are sustainable as you go through this.

是的。盧卡斯，我不打算指導運行率。我們將為您提供石油和天然氣的特殊和平均季度。當然，你有雙重例外。上半年，顯然，它高於我們討論過的 2% 的影響。我會讓你決定你想如何建模，但我們沒有具體指導。道歉波動，你在天然氣上是對的，波動是目前交易的一大挑戰。我們真正考慮它的方式是我們的工作是提供能源流，首先是向歐洲運送 100 批貨物以提供幫助。當你這樣做時，你對這些貨物進行了對沖，以確保你的利潤在你經歷的過程中是可持續的。

Obviously, liquidity isn't particularly high inside the traded markets right now. You're seeing that in many of the press announcements you see from other companies. So the principal risk that we really manage is liquidity risk and making sure that we have enough liquidity to move through a volatile price market. That's why you see our cash levels are so high to manage that liquidity as we move through this difficult time through the winter. So it is volatile, and that demands liquidity. And that's why a company like ourselves can work our way through that particular system. Over to you, Bernard, on projects.

顯然，目前交易市場的流動性並不是特別高。你從其他公司看到的許多新聞公告中都看到了這一點。因此，我們真正管理的主要風險是流動性風險，並確保我們有足夠的流動性來度過動蕩的價格市場。這就是為什麼您會看到我們的現金水平如此之高，無法在我們度過這個艱難的冬天時管理流動性。所以它是不穩定的，這需要流動性。這就是為什麼像我們這樣的公司可以通過該特定係統工作的原因。伯納德，關於項目，交給你了。

On projects, the intent wasn't to go through all the projects, Lucas. We said 7 projects by 2024, I think. We could have talked about any number of them. But I will give you an update on -- as you asked on Tangguh and on Mad Dog. Tangguh has been very, very challenging from a COVID perspective, as you might imagine, over the last couple of years. Having to -- you can imagine a site with 10,000 workers at the time with medical facilities for an accident or somebody getting hurt, but not medical facilities for pandemic and having to demand that site and then ramp it back up. And we're actually back at 12,000 people on site today in Tangguh. It's going well. The team is doing, I think, a fantastic job, and we would hope to start that up by the end of next year.

盧卡斯，在項目上，我們的目的不是要完成所有項目。我們說到 2024 年有 7 個項目，我想。我們可以談論其中的任何數量。但我會給你一個更新——正如你在 Tangguh 和 Mad Dog 上所問的那樣。正如您可能想像的那樣，在過去幾年中，從 COVID 的角度來看，Tangguh 一直非常非常具有挑戰性。不得不——你可以想像一個有 10,000 名工人的工地當時有醫療設施以應對事故或有人受傷，但沒有醫療設施來應對大流行病，並且不得不要求該工地然後將其恢復。實際上，我們今天在東固的現場有 12,000 人。進行得順利。我認為，這支球隊的工作非常出色，我們希望能在明年年底前開始這項工作。

Mad Dog Phase 2, on location. Argus, the topsides commissioning has gone well. It's all done. That's looking good. We have encountered some issues with 2 flex joints on the riser, on 2 risers in Argus. We're evaluating those at the moment. The guidance remains as the guidance. And as soon as we know more, we will update. Lots of other projects, ACE, Tortue, the list goes on. On Coral, I think it's before the end of this year, right around here right around year-end for first lifting. Great. Amy.

瘋狗二期，現場。阿格斯，上部調試進展順利。這一切都完成了。這看起來不錯。我們在 Argus 的 2 個立管上遇到了一些關於立管上 2 個柔性接頭的問題。我們目前正在評估這些。指導仍然是指導。一旦我們知道更多，我們會更新。許多其他項目，ACE、Tortue，不勝枚舉。在珊瑚上，我認為是在今年年底之前，就在年底左右，第一次吊裝。偉大的。艾米。

It's Amy Wong from Credit Suisse. Two questions from me, please. The first one is on your effective tax rate, which is you've guided down now, and you said it is due to a change in the geographical mix of the profit. So could you elaborate what some of those moving parts are in those geographies? And what's changed relative to when you first guided on the effective tax rate? And then the second question is unrelated. Apologies for that, but it's on carbon offset markets. It's a fairly new area but -- and not core at the moment, but nonetheless, a very important topic, I think, in the industry. So I'd love to hear more about an article that appeared during -- recently about your practices in Mexico, your response to that, and some talk about compensation prices and how that's all evolving.

我是瑞士信貸的 Amy Wong。請教我兩個問題。第一個是關於你的有效稅率，這是你現在引導下來的，你說這是由於利潤的地理組合發生了變化。那麼，您能否詳細說明這些地區中的一些移動部分是什麼？與您首次指導有效稅率時相比，發生了什麼變化？然後第二個問題無關緊要。對此道歉，但它是在碳補償市場上。這是一個相當新的領域，但 - 目前還不是核心，但我認為，這是行業中一個非常重要的話題。所以我很想听到更多關於最近出現在墨西哥的一篇文章，關於你在墨西哥的做法，你對此的回應，以及一些關於補償價格以及這一切如何演變的討論。

Great. I'm happy to take the second one, and our tax expert will take the first one. You did start in tax.

偉大的。我很高興接受第二個，我們的稅務專家將接受第一個。你確實是從稅收開始的。

Can't sit down on that, can't I?

不能坐下來，不是嗎？

No. That's true. On carbon offset markets and the article in Mexico, the frank answer is we think the article is misleading. We actually went into Mexico and created -- I don't have all the details, but created a grant to get the market established. We did a contract or whatever, and we did a contract at the price at the time that the market was. We're obviously adhering to carbon market sort of offset principles here around making sure that communities and so on, get fair share and all of that. So all of the things that you should expect from a company like ours. So we went in and made a grant to establish it. We did contracts based on the market price at that time.

不，這是真的。關於碳補償市場和墨西哥的文章，坦率的回答是我們認為該文章具有誤導性。我們實際上進入了墨西哥並創建了——我不知道所有細節，但創建了一個贈款來建立市場。我們簽了合同什麼的，我們按照市場當時的價格簽了合同。顯然，我們在這裡堅持碳市場的抵消原則，以確保社區等獲得公平的份額等等。因此，您應該對像我們這樣的公司期望的所有事情。所以我們進去並撥款建立它。我們按照當時的市場價格做合約。

Prior to the article being published, we realized that the market had -- recognized, not realized, recognized that the market had increased and are in the process of renegotiating that to make sure that there is a fair, more equitable outcome based on today's prices, which I think is a thing that maybe not everyone would do, but we are doing. So I think overall, the tone we would say, is somewhat misleading. And you should expect high levels of integrity from a company like ours and what we do in carbon offsets. And in that particular situation, I believe, is no exception. So thanks for asking the question. It gives me the opportunity to clarify our position. Effective tax rates.

在文章發表之前，我們意識到市場已經——承認，沒有意識到，承認市場已經上漲，並且正在重新談判，以確保基於今天的價格有一個公平、更公平的結果，我認為這可能不是每個人都會做的事情，但我們正在做。所以我認為總的來說，我們所說的語氣有點誤導。您應該期待像我們這樣的公司以及我們在碳補償方面所做的事情的高度誠信。我相信，在那種特殊情況下，也不例外。所以感謝您提出這個問題。這讓我有機會澄清我們的立場。有效稅率。

Yes, Amy. First half of the year, 30%, give or take, effective tax rate. Second half of the year, back to normal 40% tax rate. Hence, the full year guidance 35%. I suppose what we didn't plan for at the beginning of the year was a much stronger refining market, that we didn't plan for, nor did we plan for exceptional trading results. So if you take account of those things, that's what drives the effective rate lower. It is possibly the hardest thing to guide on is trying to guide on an effective rate. We never really do seem to get it right. But we think we'll be back at 35% for the full year.

是的，艾米。上半年，30%，給與取，有效稅率。下半年，恢復正常40%的稅率。因此，全年指導為 35%。我想我們在年初沒有計劃的是一個更強勁的煉油市場，我們沒有計劃，也沒有計劃取得出色的交易結果。因此，如果您考慮到這些因素，這就是降低有效利率的原因。可能是最難指導的事情是試圖指導有效利率。我們似乎從來沒有真正做到正確。但我們認為全年將恢復到 35%。

Thank you, Amy. Let's go to Jason Gabelman, if we can, on Zoom. And see if we can get Jason in and then we'll go to Paul Cheng at Scotiabank. So Jason, good morning.

謝謝你，艾米。如果可以的話，讓我們在 Zoom 上去找 Jason Gabelman。看看我們能不能讓 Jason 進來，然後我們去找豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。所以傑森，早上好。

My questions, I have 2. First, on the refining business. I think you and your peers have been discussing lower intake of third-party natural gas and our refineries in Europe, the minimized cost. Can you just discuss how that impacts refining output on the yield side? I'm assuming less NGLs being produced, but does that have an impact absolutely is all margin capture? That would be helpful. And then secondly, just on CapEx cost inflation, we've heard from your peers that within the oil and gas business, they seem to be managing that well just given the established relationships with suppliers. But I'm wondering more the renewable power side. How you're managing through the inflationary environment as you build out our portfolio?

我有兩個問題。首先，關於煉油業務。我想你和你的同行一直在討論降低第三方天然氣的攝入量和我們在歐洲的煉油廠，將成本降到最低。您能談談這對產量方面的煉油產量有何影響嗎？我假設生產的 NGL 減少了，但這絕對是所有利潤捕獲的影響嗎？那會很有幫助。其次，就資本支出成本膨脹而言，我們從您的同行那裡聽說，在石油和天然氣業務中，鑑於與供應商建立了關係，他們似乎管理得很好。但我想知道更多可再生能源方面。在建立我們的投資組合時，您是如何應對通脹環境的？

Thanks, Jason. I'll take refining. I'll let Murray take the second one. On refining, in Europe, we've managed to reduce our gas -- natural gas usage by almost 50%, which I must say surprised me when I saw the number. I think the teams have been working very hard on trying to find different ways to power the facilities and use natural gas, and they've been doing that and optimizing the refining system as they try to help their own countries. We have refineries in Germany and Spain and in Holland. Thus far, it hasn't impacted output in any way. In fact, our refineries utilization, and if you look at that compared to some others, is exceptionally high, running at over 90% utilization, Jason, which is one of the highest for quite some time. So we're managing to maintain strong utilization. Some of the strongest around, I think. Reducing natural gas usage, but no impact at this stage on the output of the refining system. Murray, inflation on renewable power.

謝謝，傑森。我會提煉的。我會讓穆雷拿第二個。在煉油方面，在歐洲，我們已經設法減少了近 50% 的天然氣使用量，當我看到這個數字時，我必須說這讓我很吃驚。我認為這些團隊一直在努力尋找不同的方式來為設施供電和使用天然氣，他們一直在這樣做並優化煉油系統，因為他們試圖幫助自己的國家。我們在德國、西班牙和荷蘭都有煉油廠。到目前為止，它還沒有以任何方式影響產量。事實上，我們煉油廠的利用率，如果你看一下，與其他煉油廠相比，它異常高，利用率超過 90%，Jason，這是相當長一段時間以來最高的之一。因此，我們正在設法保持強勁的利用率。一些最強的，我想。減少天然氣使用量，但現階段對煉油系統的產量沒有影響。默里，可再生能源的通貨膨脹。

Yes. Jason, thanks for joining us so early from the U.S. On renewable power, probably the same answer that I gave last quarter. Nothing's really changed since last quarter. Year-on-year, we've seen 30% inflation in solar panels due to different rules around the world. But power purchase agreements are going up by a commensurate amount, so returns aren't changed. That's especially in the United States. And then in offshore wind, we've seen a 5% increase in the overall cost of the offshore wind programs. That's mainly reflected steel and iron ore prices. That's kind of theoretical. It's a theoretical measure because we're not locking in right now. But of course, in the latest contract for difference rounds, you're seeing a commensurate rise in power price that offsets that as well, so the returns stay relatively stable.

是的。傑森，感謝您這麼早就從美國加入我們討論可再生能源問題，這可能與我上個季度給出的答案相同。自上個季度以來，一切都沒有真正改變。與去年同期相比，由於世界各地的不同規則，我們看到太陽能電池板的通貨膨脹率為 30%。但電力購買協議正在相應增加，因此回報不會改變。在美國尤其如此。然後在海上風電中，我們看到海上風電項目的總成本增加了 5%。這主要反映了鋼鐵和鐵礦石的價格。這有點理論。這是一個理論上的措施，因為我們現在沒有鎖定。但是，當然，在最新的差價合約中，您會看到電價相應上漲，這也抵消了這一影響，因此回報保持相對穩定。

The thing to watch is iron ore prices, steel prices, et cetera, are starting to deflate with recessionary talk. And you can all see the indices and what those are doing in 2023. So we'll be trying to make sure that, that flows through into these types of businesses, and we capture some of that deflation as we enter 2023.

值得關注的是鐵礦石價格、鋼鐵價格等，隨著經濟衰退的討論開始出現通縮。你們都可以看到這些指數以及它們在 2023 年的表現。因此，我們將努力確保這一點流入這些類型的企業，並在進入 2023 年時捕捉到一些通貨緊縮。

Great. Thanks, Jason. Let's go to Paul Cheng of Scotiabank.

偉大的。謝謝，傑森。讓我們去找豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Can you hear me okay?

你能聽到我的聲音嗎？

Yes. Paul, go ahead. It's early for you as well. So thank you for joining us early.

是的。保羅，繼續。你也為時過早。所以感謝您早日加入我們。

Two questions, please. First, on the dividend increase, you guys still talking about 4% annually through 2025, but you are also buying back a lot of stock. And so with the shift (inaudible) since like you would be able to afford more than 4% because public going to buy back more than 4%. So how should we take that into consideration when we're looking at the potential increase, the pace of increase? That's the first question. The second question, I want to go back into your refining system in Europe. Even though you reduced your gas consumption by 50%, but with the much higher natural gas price in Europe versus the U.S., that's a cost difference of disadvantage. Can you quantify for us that how big is that caused this advantage when between your U.S. and the European system, the refining due to the high -- much higher natural gas prices over there?

請教兩個問題。首先，在股息增長方面，到 2025 年，你們仍然在談論每年 4% 的增長，但你們也在回購大量股票。因此，隨著這種轉變（聽不清），因為公眾將回購超過 4% 的資產，因此您將能夠負擔超過 4% 的資產。那麼，當我們考慮潛在增長和增長速度時，我們應該如何考慮這一點呢？這是第一個問題。第二個問題，我想回到你們在歐洲的煉油系統。即使您將天然氣消耗量減少了 50%，但由於歐洲的天然氣價格比美國高得多，這也是劣勢的成本差異。您能否為我們量化一下，在您的美國和歐洲系統之間，由於那里高得多的天然氣價格導致煉油，這種優勢有多大？

Thank you, Paul. Murray, maybe help me on the second one a little bit. On the dividend, I think it's really what we said earlier, isn't it? It's -- the guidance for 4% is at a $60 oil price. The fundamental factor here that we're dealing with is we want to maintain a strong balance point. We want to anchor on that $40. We think it's the right way to run our company. As you quite rightly pointed out, we've purchased a lot of shares that, has brought the share count down. We've also repaid a lot of debt in a gross debt sense, that's brought our interest expense down. That means that this quarter, given the fact that the company is running well, and the outlook for the environment, we are able to raise the dividend by 10%, and do so while maintaining a $40 oil price breakeven.

謝謝你，保羅。穆雷，也許在第二個問題上幫我一點忙。關於股息，我認為這確實是我們之前所說的，不是嗎？這是 - 4% 的指導是在 60 美元的油價。我們正在處理的基本因素是我們想要保持一個強大的平衡點。我們想固定在那 40 美元上。我們認為這是經營我們公司的正確方式。正如您非常正確地指出的那樣，我們已經購買了很多股票，這使股票倒計時。從總債務的意義上說，我們還償還了很多債務，這降低了我們的利息支出。這意味著本季度，鑑於公司運營良好以及環境前景，我們能夠將股息提高 10%，同時保持 40 美元的油價盈虧平衡。

So our guidance remains what the guidance is. First call on capital, resilient dividend. Resilient, meaning $40 breakeven and 4% at $60. And you've seen today what we've managed to achieve in the current environment, and I should leave that at that.

所以我們的指導仍然是指導。首呼資本，彈性紅利。彈性，意味著 40 美元的盈虧平衡點和 4% 的 60 美元。你今天已經看到了我們在當前環境中取得的成就，我應該把它留在那裡。

On European refining, I think, Paul, what you're mentioning is that the price of natural gas in Europe is much higher than the United States, and so does that impact the European refineries. Of course, it makes them much less profitable. But carbon taxes are different between nations. Demand is different between nations as well. So it's probably more complicated than that. I would say refining profits inside Europe are quite suppressed though. It's a difficult time period, and we're primarily focused on flow for society. But I think that's all we should say.

關於歐洲煉油，我認為，保羅，你提到的是歐洲的天然氣價格遠高於美國，這對歐洲煉油廠也有影響。當然，這使他們的利潤大大降低。但是各國之間的碳稅是不同的。國家之間的需求也不同。所以它可能比這更複雜。我想說的是，歐洲內部的煉油利潤受到了很大的抑制。這是一個艱難的時期，我們主要關注社會流動。但我認為這就是我們應該說的。

Okay. Great. Excellent. [Christian Mallik] on the phone, and then we're done with everybody online. Craig, how are we doing on time? Okay, great. There are 10 minutes in the room. So [Christian], over to you, please.

好的。偉大的。出色的。 [Christian Mallik] 通過電話，然後我們與每個人都在線完成。克雷格，我們如何準時完成？好，太棒了。房間裡還有10分鐘。所以[基督徒]，請交給你。

Most of my questions have been answered. This is going to be slightly more sort of strategic. The $40 balance point was a great sort of degree of discipline during heightened periods of volatility into areas where we just didn't see demand visibility and so on. But to what extent is becoming a double-edge sword for you now? In the sense that it does feel to me that concerns around demand, recession and ultimately disbelief from a high long-term view, I guess it gets exacerbated by the industry also pointing towards a fairly sort of lower for longer relatively conservative planning assumption.

我的大部分問題都已得到解答。這將更具戰略性。 40 美元的平衡點是在波動加劇期間進入我們只是沒有看到需求可見性等領域的一種很好的紀律。但現在在多大程度上成為了你的雙刃劍？從某種意義上說，從長遠來看，我確實對需求、衰退和最終的懷疑感到擔憂，我猜這個行業會加劇這種情況，也指向一個相當低的長期相對保守的計劃假設。

So I guess my question is, what does it take for you to raise that balancing point? I can't give -- ask that question because people always focus on cash breakeven anticipate good degree of efficacy of cash flow. But just wondering if you're going to need the market to believe that this is a sustainable macro environment beyond the next 1 to 2 years, what does it take for you to do that? And then sort of I guess the sort of the corollary from that is, would you then consider thinking about maintaining or managing your oil volumes over the medium term as opposed to decline? So there's more of an interim to questions, but just want to know your thought process and what are the key sort of pace determinants around it.

所以我想我的問題是，你需要什麼才能提高這個平衡點？我不能給出 - 問這個問題，因為人們總是關注現金盈虧平衡預期現金流的良好程度。但只是想知道你是否需要市場相信這是一個可持續的宏觀環境，超過未來 1 到 2 年，你需要什麼才能做到這一點？然後我猜想由此得出的推論是，您是否會考慮在中期內考慮維持或管理您的石油量而不是下降？所以有更多的臨時問題，但只是想知道你的思維過程以及圍繞它的關鍵速度決定因素是什麼。

Yes, [Christian], thank you. So I think just a couple of things to say on this. So First of all, I think we all know the history of our industry, which is that I'm not sure a lot of value was created when we chased price. So we feel, at BP, Murray and I, feel like that is a lesson that we have learned. And the comment in the script today was meant with that purpose in mind, which is now is not the time to lose discipline. So that's the first thing to say is that we are anxious not to get drawn into this -- into believing that this new world will be this new world forever, and we're cognizant of the industry's history. So that's point number one.

是的，[基督徒]，謝謝。所以我想就這一點說幾句話。所以首先，我想我們都知道我們這個行業的歷史，那就是我不確定當我們追逐價格時創造了很多價值。因此，在 BP、默里和我，我們覺得這是我們吸取的教訓。今天劇本中的評論就是為了這個目的，現在不是失去紀律的時候。所以首先要說的是，我們急於不被捲入其中——相信這個新世界將永遠是這個新世界，我們了解這個行業的歷史。所以這是第一點。

Point number two, is that the first call on capital in our financial framework is our dividend. And we talk about it being a resilient dividend, which means that we want to protect that dividend given our experience of having to cut it just 2 years ago. So we're very focused on making sure that our investors and our owners can rely on that dividend. And therefore, we believe that it remains prudent to maintain a $40 breakeven price in light of the fact that prices are much, much higher today. But we believe that, that is the right thing to do in terms of production and so on. You've heard us talking today about allocating about $0.5 billion, potentially more, towards energy security today, which is about hydrocarbons. In particular, natural gas in the Haynesville.

第二點，我們財務框架中的第一個資本要求是我們的股息。我們談論它是一種有彈性的股息，這意味著鑑於我們在 2 年前不得不削減它的經驗，我們希望保護該股息。因此，我們非常專注於確保我們的投資者和我們的所有者可以依賴該股息。因此，鑑於今天的價格要高得多，我們認為維持 40 美元的盈虧平衡價格仍然是謹慎的。但我們相信，在生產等方面，這是正確的做法。您今天聽到我們談論為今天的能源安全分配大約 5 億美元，甚至可能更多，這與碳氫化合物有關。特別是海恩斯維爾的天然氣。

And we will continue to make those adjustments at the margin where we can get the returns for our owners that we feel are good returns and where that capital is relatively flexible. So we believe this is the right thing to do and the right way to run the company. And I understand the question very, very well, but that's what we have concluded. Murray, anything to add?

我們將繼續在邊際上進行這些調整，我們可以為我們的所有者獲得我們認為良好的回報並且資本相對靈活的回報。因此，我們相信這是正確的做法，也是經營公司的正確方式。我非常非常了解這個問題，但這就是我們得出的結論。穆雷，有什麼要補充的嗎？

Discipline is our focus, yes.

紀律是我們的重點，是的。

I guess discipline is our focus. [Christian], thank you. We'll go back in the room question here. Yes.

我想紀律是我們的重點。 [基督徒]，謝謝。我們將回到這裡討論房間問題。是的。

It's Peter Low from Redburn. Yes, so I just had one on your target, develop 20 gigawatts of renewables by 2025. To what extent is that now already underpinned by your existing pipeline? Or to what extent do you still need to kind of acquire existing opportunities to deliver that? And then perhaps linked to that, how are you thinking about the split between kind of PPAs and merchant exposure within that renewables business? It feels like kind of in an increasingly volatile energy price environment, you're showing the advantage perhaps of having more merchant, especially where you're not reliant on PPAs for financing.

是 Redburn 的 Peter Low。是的，所以我剛剛為您制定了一個目標，即到 2025 年開發 20 吉瓦的可再生能源。您現有的管道現在在多大程度上支持了這一目標？或者你還需要在多大程度上獲得現有的機會來實現這一目標？然後也許與此相關，您如何看待可再生能源業務中 PPA 類型和商家曝光之間的分歧？感覺就像是在日益波動的能源價格環境中，您可能正在展示擁有更多商家的優勢，尤其是在您不依賴 PPA 進行融資的情況下。

And it also, Peter, shows the benefits of being an integrated company. Because I hope the point about the 10 gigawatts of demand that we will have from our own EV charging network versus our 5 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity wasn't lost on there being a real connection there. But I'll let Murray take the PPA and the merchant thing. On the 20 gigawatts, I think, either largely underpinned by existing our expectation that it will be underpinned. We're at 4.4 gigawatts today. The pipeline is well over 20 gigawatts. It's 80% solar. Lightsource bp continues to be a very effective solar development machine. And therefore, I'm very comfortable that we will reach that 20 gigawatts by 2025 in a way that satisfies our returns and doesn't mean that we're going to have to go and buy something to get there. So that's what I would say on that. Murray, PPA's merchant.

彼得，它還展示了成為一家綜合性公司的好處。因為我希望我們自己的電動汽車充電網絡的 10 吉瓦需求與我們 5 吉瓦的海上風電容量相比，不會因為那裡有真正的連接而失去意義。但我會讓默里拿走 PPA 和商人的東西。我認為，在 20 吉瓦的容量上，要么很大程度上是由我們對它的預期所支持的。我們今天的功率為 4.4 吉瓦。管道功率遠遠超過 20 吉瓦。它是 80% 的太陽能。 Lightsource bp 仍然是一個非常有效的太陽能開發機器。因此，我很放心，到 2025 年我們將達到 20 吉瓦，這將滿足我們的回報，並不意味著我們必須去買東西才能到達那裡。這就是我要說的。默里，PPA 的商人。

The way that we think about it is in a portfolio sense, and we start to think about what are the different sales that we have that we can anchor electrons into. So if you think about the different parts of the business, Bernard has already mentioned the fast on-the-go charging with 10 gigawatts of potential demand. We'll have fleet customers that aren't inside that number that will have their own demand like Royal Mail. We'll have the big corporate deals that our marketing teams have done with Microsoft, et cetera, that you've seen publicized. You'll have natural sinks such as net-zero Teesside, if we put a green hydrogen plant in there, which I think we will. That will be a natural sink. We'll have other green hydrogen opportunities across all of our refineries globally.

我們從投資組合的角度考慮它的方式，我們開始考慮我們可以將電子固定到哪些不同的銷售中。因此，如果您考慮業務的不同部分，伯納德已經提到了具有 10 吉瓦潛在需求的快速移動充電。我們將擁有不在該數量範圍內的車隊客戶，這些客戶將有自己的需求，例如皇家郵政。我們將擁有我們的營銷團隊與微軟等達成的大型企業交易，您已經看到了這些交易。如果我們在那裡建一座綠色氫氣廠，我想我們會的，你將擁有天然水槽，例如淨零提賽德。那將是一個天然的水槽。我們將在全球所有煉油廠中擁有其他綠色氫氣機會。

So we have a very, very large natural sink that we can plow these electrons into. And then on trade, which is what we've done with natural gas for 4 decades. We established natural sinks for our natural gas, and we then untraded through trading to arbitrage. So what percentage do we do? I don't know. That's something that we're continuing to evaluate. We'll make those decisions as we get close to sanction on each of these projects. But certainly, as you can see, the importance of that integration is very, very high. And to Lucas' question, the returns are enhanced when you can do this given the optionality you create inside the portfolio.

所以我們有一個非常非常大的天然水槽，我們可以將這些電子犁入其中。然後是貿易，這就是我們 4 年來對天然氣所做的事情。我們為我們的天然氣建立了天然匯，然後我們通過交易進行套利。那麼我們做多少百分比呢？我不知道。這是我們正在繼續評估的事情。當我們接近對每個項目的製裁時，我們將做出這些決定。但可以肯定的是，正如您所見，這種整合的重要性非常非常高。對於盧卡斯的問題，考慮到您在投資組合中創建的可選性，當您可以這樣做時，回報會得到提高。

So we'll update you in the years ahead, I think, is what I'd say as we do each of these big investment programs in the offshore wind space. And I think you'll see a very different type of company, ourselves versus the pure plays, where they'll be having fixed returns, and we'll be having returns that take -- returns that play into volatility.

因此，我認為，當我們在海上風電領域進行這些大型投資計劃時，我們會在未來幾年向您更新。而且我認為你會看到一家非常不同類型的公司，我們自己與純粹的公司相比，他們將獲得固定回報，而我們將獲得回報 - 回報會影響波動性。

Peter, thank you. Maybe the last question in the room, if we can. No more questions online. And yes, sir.

彼得，謝謝。如果可以的話，也許是房間裡的最後一個問題。沒有更多的在線問題。是的，先生。

Henri Patricot from UBS. I have just one left on your EV charging EBITDA target, $2 billion by 2030, and you provide kind of a 2025 target in terms of charging stations. I was wondering in terms of the EBITDA evolution over the course of the decade, does it follow closely a number of changing points? Or is there was an inflection point in the second half and expand on the drivers here?

瑞銀的亨利·帕特里科特。我的電動汽車充電 EBITDA 目標只剩下一個，到 2030 年將達到 20 億美元，而您提供了 2025 年充電站的目標。我想知道十年來 EBITDA 的演變，它是否緊跟許多變化點？還是在下半場出現了一個拐點並在這裡擴大了車手？

Yes. I think -- so we do have a number of -- we don't have an EBITDA target for 2025, but we have shown you what the EBITDA number today is for 2030. I think you will see that it will start to kick in, in the second half. I wouldn't say the late second half, I would say the early second half of the decade. We're actually seeing some of our sites already being EBIT positive, Henri. So this is a question of driving utilization. And our top 20 sites in Britain today are at double-digit power utilization already. Our top 30 sites in China are over 20%. And I think we're beginning to see a real tipping point coming in terms of the EV sales representing globally, I think, about 5% now, and we're starting to see that being a real tipping point based on history.

是的。我認為 - 所以我們確實有一些 - 我們沒有 2025 年的 EBITDA 目標，但我們已經向您展示了今天的 2030 年 EBITDA 數字。我想您會看到它會開始生效，下半場。我不會說下半年後期，我會說這十年的下半年。 Henri，我們實際上已經看到我們的一些網站的息稅前利潤為正。所以這是一個驅動利用率的問題。今天，我們在英國的前 20 個站點的電力利用率已經達到兩位數。我們在中國排名前 30 位的網站佔比超過 20%。而且我認為我們開始看到一個真正的轉折點，就全球電動汽車銷量而言，我認為現在約為 5%，我們開始看到這是一個基於歷史的真正轉折點。

So very optimistic actually in this business. Very optimistic. It is exactly what we should be doing. I always say, if you wanted to start a company tomorrow, if you wanted to do a start-up, to do EV charging, the biggest issue you would have is access to land. 550 million people live within 20 minutes of a BP site. So right there and then, we have this enormous incumbent advantage. We have a brand. We have a convenience offer. We have a loyalty scheme. We have all these things that are crucial, and we're focused on fast or ultrafast charging, and we're focused on fleets. When we come back next time, we'll maybe talk about what AMPLY is doing in America, the company that we recently bought and the management team there, which is focused on software as a service, in charging and hardware as a service. So huge excitement, quite frankly, about what's possible in this space. And of course, with the price of energy today, EVs are look even more attractive. So we shall see.

所以在這個行業實際上非常樂觀。非常樂觀。這正是我們應該做的。我總是說，如果你明天想開一家公司，如果你想創業，做電動汽車充電，你最大的問題就是獲得土地。 5.5 億人居住在 BP 站點 20 分鐘內。因此，我們就在此時此刻擁有了巨大的現有優勢。我們有一個品牌。我們有一個方便的報價。我們有一個忠誠度計劃。我們擁有所有這些至關重要的東西，我們專注於快速或超快充電，我們專注於車隊。下次我們回來的時候，我們可能會談談 AMPLY 在美國所做的事情，我們最近收購的這家公司以及那裡的管理團隊，他們專注於軟件即服務、充電和硬件即服務。坦率地說，對於這個領域的可能性是如此巨大的興奮。當然，以今天的能源價格，電動汽車看起來更具吸引力。所以我們會看到。

We we're all in on that space. We're expanding it Royal Mail here in the U.K., continuing growth with Uber. We're now with Hertz in the United States. It's a very exciting business just to open. In fact, at close, I was in Stuttgart a couple of weeks ago, and I was on an electric truck, which was a 28-tonne truck, which is not a prototype. It's available for sale today. And it is extraordinary. I showed you a picture of this truck, and I said that's an electric, that's a battery truck and it's for sale, and people are buying it. Not a huge quantities yet, of course, but they're buying it. That would have been unthinkable 3 or 4 years ago.

我們都在那個空間裡。我們正在英國擴展它的皇家郵政，繼續與優步一起發展。我們現在在美國的 Hertz。這是一項非常令人興奮的業務。事實上，幾週前我在斯圖加特，當時我坐在一輛電動卡車上，這是一輛 28 噸重的卡車，不是原型車。它今天可以出售。這是非凡的。我給你看了這輛卡車的照片，我說那是一輛電動車，那是一輛電瓶車，它正在出售，人們正在購買它。當然，數量還不是很大，但他們正在購買。這在三四年前是不可想像的。

In fact, Martin Dom talked about shutting down that program in 2016 because he felt it was going nowhere. And yet here we are in 2022 and they're building those trucks in Stuttgart. Incredible to size and scale and pace of acceleration in this space. So we're excited, as you can tell, about EV charging. It's 1 of our 5 growth engines. It's not the only one, but it's certainly one of the ones that's going to show up in an earnings sense this decade.

事實上，Martin Dom 曾在 2016 年談到關閉該計劃，因為他覺得它無處可去。然而，我們到了 2022 年，他們正在斯圖加特製造這些卡車。這個空間的規模、規模和加速速度令人難以置信。因此，正如您所知，我們對電動汽車充電感到興奮。它是我們 5 個增長引擎中的一個。它不是唯一的，但它肯定是這十年將在收益意義上出現的一種。

So let me -- I think leave it there, if that's okay. Let me just close with how I close the main session, which is I think the company overall, always things to deal with, as you might imagine. But overall, our company is running well. It continues to strengthen, and I and Murray are enormously grateful to our teams around the world who are the ones that do that each and every day. So that's the first thing.

所以讓我——我想把它留在那裡，如果可以的話。讓我來結束我如何結束主要會議，我認為整個公司，總是要處理的事情，正如你想像的那樣。但總的來說，我們公司運行良好。它繼續加強，我和默里非常感謝我們在世界各地的團隊每天都在這樣做。所以這是第一件事。

The second thing is we are making good strategic progress. We're doing the things that we want to do, which is about providing the world, the energy that it needs today, which is mainly a hydrocarbon system. While at the same time, investing to accelerate the energy transition, and we're making real progress on that progress.

第二件事是我們正在取得良好的戰略進展。我們正在做我們想做的事情，即為世界提供當今所需的能源，主要是碳氫化合物系統。與此同時，投資以加速能源轉型，我們在這一進展上取得了真正的進展。

Thirdly, the financial frame. I think it is one of the things that we can say about BP is that I hope you all think that it's clear, it's consistent, it's unchanged, and it's doing what it's supposed to do. Which leads me to the fourth point, which is obviously we are also growing distributions to our owners and you've seen the results of that today.

第三，財務框架。我認為我們可以對 BP 說的其中一件事是，我希望你們都認為它很清楚，它是一致的，它沒有改變，它正在做它應該做的事情。這讓我想到了第四點，顯然我們也在增加對我們所有者的分配，你今天已經看到了結果。

So as ever, thank you for your interest in our company and what we're trying to do. We're doing our best. We're keeping going. And if you haven't had a break, I hope you get a break over the holidays. So thanks very much. Thanks for being here.

一如既往，感謝您對我們公司的關注以及我們正在努力做的事情。我們正在盡力而為。我們繼續前進。如果你還沒有休息，我希望你能在假期裡休息一下。非常感謝。感謝您來到這裡。